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Abstracts come from OpenAlex's CC0 abstract data; the app shows one at a time for non-commercial educational use, with author/journal/year attribution and a link to the source DOI."},"papers":[{"id":"public-000afdcf6af1650d","title":"Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?","abstract":"A geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier measures the effect of an increase in spending in one region of a monetary union. Empirical studies of such multipliers have proliferated. I review this research and what the evidence implies for national multipliers. Based on an updated analysis of the ARRA and a survey of empirical studies, my preferred point estimate for a cross-sectional multiplier is 1.8. The paper also discusses conditions under which the cross-sectional multiplier provides a rough lower bound for the national, no-monetary-policy-response multiplier. Putting these elements together, the cross-sectional evidence suggests a national no-monetary-policy-response multiplier of 1.7 or above.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Gabriel Chodorow-Reich"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160465","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0012f05b6f9e8dc6","title":"Real Effects of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe: Evidence from Syndicated Loans","abstract":"We explore the causes of the credit crunch during the European sovereign debt crisis and its impact on the corporate policies of European firms. Our results show that value impairment in banks’ exposures to sovereign debt and the risk-shifting behavior of weakly capitalized banks reduced the probability of firms being granted new syndicated loans by up to 53%. This lending contraction depressed investment, employment, and sales growth of firms affiliated with affected banks. Our estimates based on firm-level data suggest that the credit crunch explains between 44% and 66% of the overall negative real effects suffered by European firms.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Viral V. Acharya","Tim Eisert","Christian Eufinger","Christian Hirsch"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy045","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-001960bcb0afc903","title":"Preference conformism: An experiment","abstract":"This paper reports on an experiment designed to test whether people's preferences change to become more alike. Such preference conformism would be worrying for an economics that takes individual preferences as given (‘de gustibus es non disputandum’). So the test is important. But it is also difficult. People can behave alike for many reasons and the key to the design of our test, therefore, is the control of the other possible reasons for observing apparent peer effects. We find evidence of preference conformism in the aggregate and at the individual level (where there is heterogeneity). It appears also to be more consistent with Festinger's epistemic account of why it might occur than that of Social Identity Theory.","wordCount":117,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Enrique Fatás","Shaun P. Hargreaves Heap","David Rojo Arjona"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.02.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0031b3726dca5930","title":"Natural disasters and economic growth: The role of banking market structure","abstract":"Following a natural disaster, the rate of economic growth recovers faster in less competitive banking markets. A 10% reduction in competition increases the rate of economic growth by 0.3%. In less competitive markets, banks respond to a disaster by increasing the supply of real estate credit by refinancing mortgage loans, but do not lend more to businesses or consumers. Instead, government agencies provide disaster loans to affected businesses and households. Smaller, profitable and well-capitalized institutions that rely more on traditional retail banking originate most mortgage credit.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Andi Duqi","Danny McGowan","Enrico Onali","Giuseppe Torluccio"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/2480842","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-004091c22f63a51f","title":"Real-estate agent commission structure and sales performance","abstract":"We study the transaction prices and sales times of a new type of real-estate agent, the “internet agents”, who operate mainly online. Competing on the same Dutch online listing platform, these internet agents charge a low fee up front and leave the viewings to the sellers. Using a nation-wide dataset of residential real-estate transactions, we find robust evidence that sellers who use internet agents obtain higher prices and sell faster but they are also more likely to switch to a traditional agent or fail to sell than sellers who use traditional agents. These results are consistent with a model in which sellers learn over time about their skills and where good sellers benefit from and sort at internet agents. Some of our findings also support the view that real-estate agents have market power.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Pieter A. Gautier","Arjen Siegmann","Aico van Vuuren"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0044af8d106f08f3","title":"Foreign ownership and skill-biased technological change","abstract":"We conduct an empirical investigation into the effects of foreign ownership on worker skills using firm-level data from Spain. To control for endogeneity bias due to selection into foreign ownership, we combine a difference-in-differences approach with a propensity score weighting estimator. Our results provide novel evidence that foreign-acquired firms actively raise the skills of their workforce in response to the acquisition by hiring high-skilled workers and providing worker training. To pin down the mechanism, we exploit unique information on whether firms use their foreign parent in exporting to foreign markets. Our results suggest a fundamental role for market access through the foreign parent in explaining skill upgrading in foreign-acquired firms. We reveal substantial productivity gains within foreign-acquired firms and we show that these gains derive from a concurrent effort to raise worker skills and adopt more advanced technology, suggesting a skill bias in technological innovations. We develop a simple theoretical model of foreign ownership featuring technology-skill complementarities in production that can rationalize our findings.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Michael Koch","Marcel Smolka"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-004b52b886b5e113","title":"Chinese College Admissions and School Choice Reforms: A Theoretical Analysis","abstract":"Each year approximately 10 million high school seniors in China compete for 6 million seats through a centralized college admissions system. Within the last decade, many provinces have transitioned from a \"sequential\" to a \"parallel\" mechanism to make their admissions decisions. In this study, we characterize a parametric family of application-rejection assignment mechanisms, including the sequential, deferred acceptance, and parallel mechanisms in a nested framework. We show that all of the provinces that have abandoned the sequential mechanism have moved toward less manipulable and more stable mechanisms. We also show that existing empirical evidence is consistent with our theoretical predictions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Yan Chen","Onur Kesten"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689773","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0057d38fe763768c","title":"The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms","abstract":"The fall of labor’s share of GDP in the United States and many other countries in recent decades is well documented but its causes remain uncertain. Existing empirical assessments typically rely on industry or macro data, obscuring heterogeneity among firms. In this article, we analyze micro panel data from the U.S. Economic Census since 1982 and document empirical patterns to assess a new interpretation of the fall in the labor share based on the rise of “superstar firms.” If globalization or technological changes push sales toward the most productive firms in each industry, product market concentration will rise as industries become increasingly dominated by superstar firms, which have high markups and a low labor share of value added. We empirically assess seven predictions of this hypothesis: (i) industry sales will increasingly concentrate in a small number of firms; (ii) industries where concentration rises most will have the largest declines in the labor share; (iii) the fall in the labor share will be driven largely by reallocation rather than a fall in the unweighted mean labor share across all firms; (iv) the between-firm reallocation component of the fall in the labor share will be greatest in the sectors with the largest increases in market concentration; (v) the industries that are becoming more concentrated will exhibit faster growth of productivity; (vi) the aggregate markup will rise more than the typical firm’s markup; and (vii) these patterns should be observed not only in U.S. firms but also internationally. We find support for all of these predictions.","wordCount":253,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David Autor","David Dorn","Lawrence F. Katz","Christina Patterson","John Van Reenen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa004","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-005baa49c76cf56a","title":"Social media charity campaigns and pro-social behaviour. Evidence from the Ice Bucket Challenge","abstract":"Social media use plays an important role in shaping individuals’ social attitudes and economic behaviours. One of the first well-known examples of social media campaigns is the Ice Bucket Challenge (IBC), a charity campaign that went viral on social media networks in August 2014, aiming to collect money for research on amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We rely on UK longitudinal data to investigate the causal impact of the Ice Bucket Challenge on pro-social behaviours. In detail, this study shows that having been exposed to the IBC increases the probability of donating money, and it also increases the amount of money donated among those who donate at most £100. We also find that exposure to the IBC has increased the probability of volunteering and the level of interpersonal trust. However, all these results, except for the result on the intensive margins of donations, are of short duration and are limited to less than one year. This supports the prevalent consensus that social media campaigns may have only short-term effects.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Andrea Fazio","Tommaso Reggiani","Scervini Francesco"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102624","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-005e134244ae3f6b","title":"A new perspective to promote low-carbon consumption: The influence of reference groups","abstract":"Reference groups are crucial factor in consumer purchasing decisions. However, we know little about how such groups affect low-carbon consumption behavior (LCB), especially the impact of habitual low-carbon consumption behavior (HLCB). To expand on the previous research and encourage LCB from the perspective of reference groups, we conducted a social study of Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, China ( N = 351). We aim to test how the influences of reference groups act on the purchasing low-carbon consumption behavior (PLCB) and HLCB of residents. The results indicate that all of the influences work indirectly through low-carbon consumption intention (LCI). Among these influences, the informational influence and utilitarian influence positively promote LCI, while the value-expressive influence inhibits it. The intention engendered by reference groups has a significantly greater impact on residents' HLCB than on their PLCB, and it is more conducive to promoting a low-carbon lifestyle.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Lingyun Mi","Hanlin Zhu","Jie Chi Yang","Xiaoli Gan","Ting Xu","Lijie Qiao","Qing‐Yan Liu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.03.019","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-0062036ad1cdb555","title":"Teleworking and housing demand","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the trend towards teleworking. Many predicted that this would shift housing demand to the suburbs and homes with the potential for high quality office space. We examine these predictions using a survey of the working age population who live in the private housing sector. The majority in the sector are happy with their current home, but new teleworkers who plan to continue to do so - accounting for one fifth of the population - are characterised by a higher intention to move. Consistent with predictions, these teleworkers value a high quality home office more than others and are prepared to live further away from the centre to find it.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Rainer Schulz","Verity Watson","Martin Wersing"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103915","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-006277490b55d9f2","title":"Rising Intergenerational Income Persistence in China","abstract":"This paper documents an increasing intergenerational income persistence in China since economic reforms were introduced in 1979. The intergenerational income elasticity increases from 0.390 for the 1970–1980 birth cohort to 0.442 for the 1981–1988 birth cohort; this increase is more evident among urban and coastal residents than rural and inland residents. We also explore how changes in intergenerational income persistence is correlated with market reforms, economic development, and policy changes.","wordCount":70,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Yi Fan","Junjian Yi","Junsen Zhang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170097","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0068088fe152a47e","title":"Making America great again? The economic impacts of Liberation Day tariffs","abstract":"On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared “Liberation Day,” announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs. If trading partners do not retaliate, the tariffs could decrease the U.S. trade deficit and improve its terms of trade, yielding modest welfare gains when tariff revenues reduce the income tax burden for American workers. However, reciprocal retaliation results in net welfare losses for the U.S. economy. We derive the unilaterally optimal tariff policy and find that the USTR proposed tariffs, based on bilateral trade deficits, diverge markedly from the optimal design. The optimal tariff is 19%, uniformly applied across all trading partners, and determined solely by the aggregate trade deficit, rather than bilateral imbalances. Under optimal foreign retaliation to the USTR tariffs, U.S. welfare declines by up to 3.38% when accounting for input–output linkages, while global employment contracts by 0.58%.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Anna Ignatenko","Ahmad Lashkaripour","Luca Macedoni","Ina Simonovska"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104138","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-006b1569029e4f22","title":"Strong Duality for a Multiple-Good Monopolist","abstract":"We characterize optimal mechanisms for the multiple-good monopoly problem and provide a framework to find them.We show that a mechanism is optimal if and only if a measure µ derived from the buyer's type distribution satisfies certain stochastic dominance conditions.This measure expresses the marginal change in the seller's revenue under marginal changes in the rent paid to subsets of buyer types.As a corollary, we characterize the optimality of grand-bundling mechanisms, strengthening several results in the literature, where only sufficient optimality conditions have been derived.As an application, we show that the optimal mechanism for n independent uniform items each supported on [c, c + 1] is a grand-bundling mechanism, as long as c is sufficiently large, extending Pavlov's result for 2 items [Pav11].At the same time, our characterization also implies that, for all c and for all sufficiently large n, the optimal mechanism for n independent uniform items supported on [c, c + 1] is not a grand bundling mechanism.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Constantinos Daskalakis","Alan Deckelbaum","Christos Tzamos"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12618","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-00856cd679a046d0","title":"Can you spot a scam? Measuring and improving scam identification ability","abstract":"The expansion of digital financial services leads to severe consumer protection issues such as fraud and scams. As these potentially decrease trust in digital services, especially in developing countries, avoiding victimization has become an important policy objective. In an online experiment, we first investigate how well individuals in Kenya identify phone scams using a novel measure of scam identification ability. We then test the effectiveness of scam education, a commonly used approach by organizations for fraud prevention. We find that common tips on how to spot scams do not significantly improve individuals’ scam identification ability, i.e., the distinction between scams and genuine messages. This null effect is driven by an increase in correctly identified scams and a decrease in correctly identified genuine messages, indicating overcaution. Additionally, we find suggestive evidence that genuine messages with scam-like features are misclassified more often, highlighting the importance of a careful design of official communication.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Elif Kubilay","Eva Raiber","Lisa Spantig","Jana Cahlíková","Lucy Kaaria"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103147","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0093bd31864fc09d","title":"Higher education funding, welfare and inequality in equilibrium","abstract":"This paper analyses theoretically and quantitatively the ei¬€ect that dii¬€erent higher education funding policies have on welfare (on aggregate and at the individual level) and wealth inequality. A heterogeneous agent model in continuous time, which has uninsurable income risk and endogenous educational choice is used to evaluate i¬ve dii¬€erent higher education i¬nancing schemes. Educational investments can be self i¬nanced, supported by government guaranteed student loans - that may come with or without income contingent support - or be covered by the public sector. When educational costs are small, dii¬€erences in outcomes amongst systems are negligible. On the other hand, when these costs rise to realistic levels we see that there can be large gains in welfare and signii¬cant drops in inequality by moving to a system with more public sector support. This support can come in the form of tuition subsidies and/or income contingent student loans. However, as the cost of education and the share of debtors in society gets larger, it is preferable to increase public support in the form of tuition subsidies. The reason is that there is a pecuniary externality of debt that gets magnii¬ed when student loans become excessive. While I identify large steady state welfare gains from more public sector i¬nancing, I show that the transition costs can be large enough to justify the status quo.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Gustavo Mellior"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-00b994c18aadc214","title":"Trade competition and migration: Evidence from the quartz crisis","abstract":"Foreign competition and technological change can both present threats to domestic industries, potentially resulting in out-migration from cities and regions where these industries are spatially agglomerated. In this paper, I study the migration effects of one such trade shock: The quartz crisis, which devastated the globally dominant Swiss watch industry in the 1970s. Using a differences-in-differences strategy, I show that this trade shock led to a rapid loss of population in affected areas, and a long-run change in growth patterns. This contrasts with many other studies of large trade shocks, which find little migration response. I highlight three key factors that distinguish this shock from others and may explain the divergence: (1) the crisis negatively impacted a key export industry while generating no offsetting gains, (2) the affected labor markets were highly non-diversified, and (3) the affected workers were highly mobile.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Tate Twinam"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","F","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103653","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-00be0d7e58eb7d92","title":"Reference Pricing as a Deterrent to Entry: Evidence from the European Pharmaceutical Market","abstract":"External reference pricing (ERP), the practice of benchmarking domestic drug prices to foreign prices, generates an incentive for firms to withhold products from low-income countries. Using a novel moment inequality approach, we estimate a structural model to measure how ERP policies affect access to innovative drugs across Europe. We find that ERP increases entry delays in eight low-income European countries by up to one year per drug. The European Union could remove these delays without replacing ERP by compensating firms through lump-sum transfers at the cost of around €18 million per drug.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Luca Maini","Fabio Pammolli"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20210053","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-00c1d0cdfe9c74c9","title":"How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?","abstract":"The resolution of trade and monetary uncertainties is crucial to economic resilience and consumer confidence. This study examines the impact of trade and monetary policy uncertainty during geopolitical shocks on U.S. consumer confidence. Using monthly data from January 1993 to June 2024, we find that both trade and monetary policy uncertainties have significantly shaped U.S. consumer confidence during major geopolitical events. Moreover, trade policy uncertainty significantly worsens consumer confidence during heightened geopolitical tension, while monetary policy uncertainty tends to stabilize sentiment. Our findings suggest that policymakers should implement clear and consistent trade policies during geopolitical unrest and effectively use monetary policy to reassure consumers. Ultimately, this research underscores the importance of addressing trade and monetary uncertainties to bolster economic resilience and enhance consumer confidence in challenging times.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Moustapha Badran","Mohamed Awada","Joanna Darwiche","Whelsy Boungou"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112115","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-00c4c8c42473d25e","title":"Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S.","abstract":"The paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies adopted by US states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths as well as social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into consideration people’s voluntarily behavioral response to new information of transmission risks in a causal structural model framework. Our analysis finds that both policies and information on transmission risks are important determinants of Covid-19 cases and deaths and shows that a change in policies explains a large fraction of observed changes in social distancing behavior. Our main counterfactual experiments suggest that nationally mandating face masks for employees early in the pandemic could have reduced the weekly growth rate of cases and deaths by more than 10 percentage points in late April and could have led to as much as 19 to 47 percent less deaths nationally by the end of May, which roughly translates into 19 to 47 thousand saved lives. We also find that, without stay-at-home orders, cases would have been larger by 6 to 63 percent and without business closures, cases would have been larger by 17 to 78 percent. We find considerable uncertainty over the effects of school closures due to lack of cross-sectional variation; we could not robustly rule out either large or small effects. Overall, substantial declines in growth rates are attributable to private behavioral response, but policies played an important role as well. We also carry out sensitivity analyses to find neighborhoods of the models under which the results hold robustly: the results on mask policies appear to be much more robust than the results on business closures and stay-at-home orders. Finally, we stress that our study is observational and therefore should be interpreted with great caution. From a completely agnostic point of view, our findings uncover predictive effects (association) of observed policies and behavioral changes on future health outcomes, controlling for informational and other confounding variables.","wordCount":320,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Victor Chernozhukov","Hiroyuki Kasahara","Paul Schrimpf"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.09.003","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-00c5e89ae7d47e80","title":"The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-Country Urbanization","abstract":"Today, the world’s fastest-growing cities lie in low-income countries, unlike the historical norm. Also, unlike the “killer cities” of history, cities in low-income countries grow not just through in-migration but also through their own natural increase. First, we use novel historical data to document that many poor countries urbanized at the same time as the postwar urban mortality transition. Second, we develop a framework incorporating location choice with heterogeneity in demographics and congestion costs across locations to account for this. In the framework, people prefer to live in low-mortality locations, and the aggregate rate of population growth and the locational choice of individuals interact. Third, we calibrate this to data from a sample of poor countries and find that informal urban areas (e.g., slums) can absorb additional population more easily than other locations. We show that between 1950 and 2005 the urban mortality transition could have doubled the urbanization rate as well as the size of informal urban areas in this sample. Of these effects, one-third could be attributed to the amenity effect of lower urban mortality rates, while the remainder is due to higher population growth disproportionately pushing people into informal urban areas. Fourth, simulations suggest that family planning programs, as well as industrialization or urban infrastructure and institutions may be effective in slowing poor-country urbanization.","wordCount":217,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Rémi Jedwab","Dietrich Vollrath"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170189","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-00c99133b244a5f9","title":"The Effects of Double-Blind versus Single-Blind Reviewing: Experimental Evidence from The American Economic Review","abstract":"The results from a randomized experiment conducted at the American Economic Review on the effects of double-blind versus single-blind peer reviewing on acceptance rates and referee rating indicate that acceptance rates are lower and referees are more critical when the reviewer is unaware of the author's identity. These patterns are not significantly different between female and male authors. Authors at top-ranked universities and at colleges and low-ranked universities are largely unaffected by the different reviewing practices, but the authors at near-top-ranked universities and at nonacademic institutions have lower acceptance rates under double-blind reviewing.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Rebecca M. Blank"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:81:y:1991:i:5:p:1041-67","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-00d288251f74c159","title":"Is the Time Allocated to Review Patent Applications Inducing Examiners to [grant] Patents? Evidence from Microlevel Application Data","abstract":"We explore how examiner behavior is altered by the time allocated for reviewing patent applications. Insufficient examination time may hamper examiner search and rejection efforts, leaving examiners more inclined to [grant] applications. To test this prediction, we use application-level data to trace the behavior of individual examiners over the course of a series of promotions that carry with them reductions in examination time allocations. We find evidence demonstrating that such promotions are associated with reductions in examination scrutiny and increases in granting tendencies, as well as evidence that those additional patents being issued on the margin are of below-average quality.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Michael Frakes","Melissa F. Wasserman"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00605","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-00d64436cbc0b913","title":"Fairness and the Unselfish Demand for Redistribution by Taxpayers and Welfare Recipients","abstract":"We theoretically illustrate how the aversion to unfairness triggers an unselfish though rational demand for redistribution. This leads the well‐off to demand positive tax rates and the “poor” to reject extreme progressivity. We prove that the “rich” and the “poor” adjust their demand for redistribution in opposite ways when their sensitivity to fairness increases: while agents with above average expected income raise their demand for redistribution, agents with below average income lower it. We then provide empirical evidence of these behaviors using a nationally representative survey from Italy. The estimates confirm that a stronger aversion to unfair distributive outcomes is associated with a higher support for redistribution by individuals with high income and to a lower demand for redistribution by those with low income.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Fabio Sabatini","Marco Ventura","Eiji Yamamura","Luca Zamparelli"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12416","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-00d85c097dc746c6","title":"Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses","abstract":"We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We discuss several implications: (i) LP and VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they are simply two dimension reduction techniques with common estimand but different finite‐sample properties. (ii) VAR‐based structural identification—including short‐run, long‐run, or sign restrictions—can equivalently be performed using LPs, and vice versa. (iii) Structural estimation with an instrument (proxy) can be carried out by ordering the instrument first in a recursive VAR, even under noninvertibility. (iv) Linear VARs are as robust to nonlinearities as linear LPs.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller","Christian K. Wolf"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17813","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-00f6a585ccec00ed","title":"Good Jobs and Recidivism","abstract":"I estimate the impact of employment opportunities on recidivism among 1.7 million offenders released from a California prison between 1993 and 2008. The institutional structure of the California criminal justice system as well as location, skill, and industry‐specific job accession data provide a unique framework for identifying a causal effect of job availability on criminal behaviour. I find that increases in construction and manufacturing opportunities at the time of release are associated with significant reductions in recidivism. Other types of opportunities, including those characterised by lower wages that are typically accessible to individuals with criminal records, do not influence recidivism.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Kevin Schnepel"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12415","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0115551bda5e554c","title":"The London Stock Exchange, 1869–1929: new statistics for old?","abstract":"Newly assembled datasets on the size and composition of the London Stock Exchange present some results contradicting conventional wisdom. A forensic examination of one study of corporate equities in the Investor's Monthly Manual between 1869 and 1929 suggests both idiosyncratic mistakes and generic biases that limit the usefulness of this source.","wordCount":51,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Leslie Hannah"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12620","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0129052c41ca53fa","title":"Catch me if you can. Can human observers identify insiders in asset markets?","abstract":"Securities regulators around the globe face the challenge of identifying trades based on inside information. We study human observers' ability to identify informed traders and investigate which trading patterns are indicative of informed trading using experimental asset markets. We furthermore test how the behavioral response of informed traders to the threat of detection and punishment impacts observers' detection abilities. We find that market trading data carries information which correlates with informed trading activity. Observers partly succeed in recognizing and using this information to identify in-formed traders.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Thomas Stöckl","Stefan Palan"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.04.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0130a6bfcc2dd7f0","title":"Understanding productivity growth in the industrial revolution<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"Recent research relating to productivity growth during the British industrial revolution is reviewed. This confirms that there was a gradual acceleration rather than a ‘take‐off’. The explanation for the speeding‐up of technological progress remains controversial but the evidence base has improved considerably. In the face of a surge in population growth, slow growth of real wages during the industrial revolution may be seen as a good outcome which was underpinned by improved growth potential. Slow total factor productivity growth from the 1870s suggests that British technological capabilities at the end of the industrial revolution were still quite limited.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Nicholas Crafts"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13051","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0135a2764a57b6ce","title":"The Effects of Roads on Trade and Migration: Evidence from a Planned Capital City","abstract":"A large body of literature studies how infrastructure facilitates trade. We ask whether infrastructure also facilitates migration. Using a general equilibrium trade model and rich spatial data, we study the impact of a large, plausibly exogenous shock to highways in Brazil on both goods and labor markets. We find the highway system increased welfare by 2.8 percent, of which 76 percent was due to reduced trade costs and 24 percent to reduced migration costs. An implication of costly migration is spatial heterogeneity in benefits: the range of welfare improvement is 1 to 15 percent, as opposed to uniform gains with perfect mobility.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Melanie Morten","Jaqueline Oliveira"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180487","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0137389e896b27d7","title":"Information search, coherence effects, and their interplay in legal decision making","abstract":"Legal judgments require one to make sense of a complex set of typically contradicting pieces of information that can easily be interpreted in a biased manner. This systematic judgment bias can be caused by biased information search (i.e., confirmatory search) as well as biased information processing (i.e., coherence effects) in which the interpretation of information is changed to fit the emerging favored option. In four studies, we investigate the complex interplay between both kinds of influences. Participants completed three legal cases in which they could freely search for information. We manipulated between subjects whether systematic search was possible or not and measured the assessment of each selected piece of information. In line with previous studies, we observe strong coherence effects in each study, in that the evidence interpretation strongly depended on the current tendency towards acquittal or conviction. In contrast to our expectation, however, people searched for information that was contrary to their current belief in the given case (i.e., disconfirmatory information search). We also observed a trend towards an interaction between both factors, in that coherence effects were slightly stronger for neutral and pro-guilty evidence when systematic information search was possible. Our results underline an unconscious striving for coherence when making complex judgments that is not easily corrected.","wordCount":209,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Dorothee Mischkowski","Andreas Glöckner","Peter Lewisch"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102445","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-013ab20c1c46952e","title":"Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations","abstract":"We use expectations of the short rate inferred from the term structure of interest rates to test several well-known models of behavioral biases and information frictions. We classify signals about future short rates by their cost of acquisition and find evidence of overreaction to high-cost signals and underreaction to low-cost signals, providing support for the overconfidence bias. We show that our results are unlikely to be driven by time-varying risk premia. The biases are so large that the market’s forecast errors are larger at all horizons than for forecasts obtained by assuming that the short rate follows a random walk.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["George Bulkley","Richard Harris","Vivekanand Nawosah"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101637","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-014a8d988f82d428","title":"Gender Inequality in Paid and Unpaid Work During Covid‐19 Times","abstract":"We employ real‐time household data to study the impact of the pandemic lockdown on paid and unpaid work in Spain. We document large employment losses that affected more severely low‐skilled workers and to some extent college educated women. We show that the pandemic resulted in an increase in the gender gap in total hours worked, including paid and unpaid work. This is due to the smaller decrease in paid work hours among women that was not compensated by a smaller increase in unpaid work. We also examine the impact of the lockdown on within‐household specialization patterns. We find that while men slightly increased their participation in home production, the burden continued to be borne by women, irrespective of their labor market situation. This evidence suggests that traditional explanations cannot account for the unequal distribution of the domestic workload. Additional analysis supports gender norms as a plausible explanation for our findings.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Lídia Farré","Yarine Fawaz","Libertad González","Jennifer Graves"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12563","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-01679e0765faafc4","title":"Closing a mental account: the realization effect for gains and losses","abstract":"How do risk attitudes change after experiencing gains or losses? For the case of losses, Imas (Am Econ Rev 106:2086–2109, 2016) shows that subsequent risk-taking behavior depends on whether these losses have been realized or not. After a realized loss, individuals’ risk-taking decreases, whereas it increases after an unrealized (paper) loss. He refers to this asymmetry as the realization effect. In this study, we derive theoretical predictions for risk-taking after paper and realized gains, and for investment opportunities with different skewness. We experimentally test these predictions and, at the same time, replicate Imas’ original study. Independent of a prior gain or loss, we show that subsequent risk-taking is higher when outcomes remain unrealized. However, we find no evidence of a realization effect for non-positively skewed lotteries. While the first result suggests that the effect is more general, the second result reveals its boundary conditions.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Christoph Merkle","Jan Müller-Dethard","Martin Weber"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09663-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0176e0ae48feb30d","title":"On-the-job wage dynamics","abstract":"This paper assesses wage setting and wage dynamics in a search and matching framework where (i) workers and firms on occasion can meet multilaterally; (ii) workers can recall previous encounters with firms; and (iii) firms cannot commit to future wages and workers cannot commit to not searching in the future. The resulting progression of wages (from firms paying just enough to keep their workers) yields a compensation structure consistent with well established but difficult to reconcile observations on pay dynamics within jobs at firms. Along with wage tenure effects, serial correlation in wage changes and wage growth are negatively correlated with initial wages.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Eric Smith"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105953","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-017a11cad3a86c19","title":"Static or Dynamic Efficiency: Horizontal Merger Effects in the Wireless Telecommunications Industry","abstract":"This paper studies five mergers in the European wireless telecommunication industry and analyzes their impact on prices and capital expenditures of both merging carriers and their rivals. We find substantial heterogeneity in the relationship between increases in concentration and carriers’ prices. The specifics of each merger case clearly matter. Moreover, we find a positive correlation between the price and the investment effect; when the prices after a merger increase (decrease), the investments increase (decrease) too. Thus, we document a trade-off between static and dynamic efficiency of mergers.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michał Grajek","Klaus Gugler","Tobias Kretschmer","Ion Mişcişin"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09723-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0183c5751c2bfb86","title":"The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence","abstract":"We use time series techniques to estimate the importance of four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: rising firm markups, falling bargaining power of workers, higher investment-specific technology growth, and more automated production processes. Identification is achieved with restrictions derived from a stylized model of structural change. Our results point to automation as the main driver of the labor share, although rising markups have played an important role in the last 20 years. We also find evidence of capital-labor complementarity, suggesting that capital deepening may have raised the labor share.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Drago Bergholt","Francesco Furlanetto","Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190365","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-018a4b30daeb4acd","title":"Experience Goods, Umbrella Branding, and Reputation","abstract":"This paper examines umbrella brands—brand stretching or brand extension—in a model of experience goods and an infinite number of periods. A monopoly firm has short-run incentives to compromise on product quality so as to save costs, as buyers can observe quality only ex post. The paper shows that the overlapping structure of product launching strengthens umbrella branding, mitigates moral hazard, and makes easier the building of a good reputation and its maintenance. The overlapping structure generates switching costs between strategies.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Juha-Pekka Niinimäki"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09885-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-018be0ead37006ba","title":"Intimate partner violence and help-seeking: The role of femicide news","abstract":"Exploiting high-frequency data from the Italian anti-violence helpline, police reports of domestic abuse and maltreatments, and a unique geolocalized dataset on killings of women, we show that the news coverage of a femicide triggers an increase in help-seeking behavior. The effect is detectable in the period following the news and in the province where the femicide has occurred. Additionally, help-seeking increases more when the general interest and news coverage are higher. These findings are consistent with a model in which femicide news increase expectations about future intimate partner violence in case no action is taken. Our results imply that recurrent information campaigns and public discussion can foster help-seeking from survivors of gender-based violence.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Marco Colagrossi","Claudio Deiana","Davide Dragone","Andrea Geraci","Ludovica Giua","Elisa Iori"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102722","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-01a30e6c76703e10","title":"The Texas Shoot-Out under Knightian uncertainty","abstract":"We investigate a widely used mechanism to resolve disputes among business partners, known as Texas Shoot-Out, under Knightian uncertainty. For a non-degenerate range of intermediate valuations, an ambiguity-averse divider truthfully reveals their valuation in equilibrium. As a consequence, the resulting outcome is efficient, in contrast to the Bayesian case. With equal shares, both agents prefer ex-ante to be the chooser and would like to avoid triggering the mechanism in the first place.","wordCount":72,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Gerrit Bauch","Frank Riedel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.04.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-01abaa3cddf1aa06","title":"In the Shadow of Antitrust Enforcement: Price Effects of Hospital Mergers from 2009 to 2016","abstract":"We examine 558 hospital mergers during a period of increased antitrust enforcement. Using US data on commercially insured patients from 2009 to 2016, we estimate an average price effect of roughly 5 percent, with a smaller effect for mergers later in the sample period. Mergers between hospitals that were substitutes for patients, were in unconcentrated insurance markets, and were less likely to lead to efficiencies had higher price increases. Using administrative data on merger investigations, we estimate higher-than-average price increases for mergers selected for more detailed investigation and find no evidence of higher-than-average price increases for nonreportable mergers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Keith Brand","Chris Garmon","Ted Rosenbaum"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/724841","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-01b632427d757657","title":"Socioeconomic inequality of access to healthcare: Does choice explain the gradient?","abstract":"Equity of access is a key policy objective in publicly-funded healthcare systems. However, observed inequalities of access by socioeconomic status may result from differences in patients' choices. Using data on non-emergency coronary revascularisation procedures in the English National Health Service, we found substantive differences in waiting times within public hospitals between patients with different socioeconomic status: up to 35% difference, or 43 days, between the most and least deprived population quintile groups. Using selection models with differential distances as identification variables, we estimated that only up to 12% of these waiting time inequalities can be attributed to patients' choices of hospital and type of treatment (heart bypass versus stent). Residual inequality, after allowing for choice, was economically significant: patients in the least deprived quintile group benefited from shorter waiting times and the associated health benefits were worth up to £850 per person.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Giuseppe Moscelli","Luigi Siciliani","Nils Gutacker","Richard Cookson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.06.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-01cd294fc9ee9f1f","title":"Cohort at risk: long-term consequences of conflict for child school achievement","abstract":"We investigate the long-term effects of households’ exposure to violent conflict on children’s educational attainment in primary school, studying cognitive and non-cognitive skills as possible causal channels. Our identification strategy exploits the locality-level variation in the intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank during the Second Intifada (2000–2005). We show that an increase in family experience of conflict has large negative long-term effects on the educational attainment of children as measured by grade point averages. We find that non-cognitive rather than cognitive skills are the channels through which exposure affects children’s educational achievement.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Hendrik Jürges","Luca Stella","Sameh Hallaq","Alexandra Schwarz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00790-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-01eecc56e8c6ca7c","title":"Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020","abstract":"The international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks rather than macroeconomic overheating. This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks—deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroeconomic conditions—measured by the unemployment gap, the output gap, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment—and the pass-through into core inflation from past headline shocks. We conclude that the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks. Macroeconomic conditions generally played a secondary role. In the United States, estimated price pressures from strong macroeconomic conditions had been greater than in other economies but have eased.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Mai Dao","Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas","Daniel Leigh","Prachi Mishra"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103658","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-021121074a8056d7","title":"Cognitive abilities, self-efficacy, and financial behavior","abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of cognitive abilities on financial behavior among older adults. Using the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I find that cognitive abilities significantly affect financial behavior through two channels: ability and self-efficacy. People with higher cognition scores achieve better financial outcomes. This positive association is especially strong in tasks having high demand of cognitive abilities, which confirms the ability channel of the cognitive ability effect. In addition, there is evidence for the self-efficacy channel as a secondary source of cognitive influence. Lower cognitive abilities decrease people’s sense of self-efficacy, which, in turn, significantly decreases financial management efficiency. The findings have important policy implications, specifically that more effort is needed to assist the growing older population through the cognitive aging process and that noncognitive skills, as a secondary source of influence, also warrant attention.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Ning Tang"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102447","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0218da81e07581b8","title":"Better at Home than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France","abstract":"Many countries have recently adopted electronic monitoring (EM) as an alternative sentence to reduce incarceration while maintaining public safety. However, the empirical evidence on the effects of EM on recidivism (relative to prison) is very scarce worldwide. Our empirical strategy exploits the incremental rollout of EM in France, which started as a local experiment in four courts in 2000–2001 and was later adopted by an increasing number of courts. Our instrumental variables estimates show that fully converting prison sentences into EM has long-lasting beneficial effects on recidivism, with estimated reductions in the probability of reconviction of 6–7 percentage points (9–11 percent) after 5 years. The presence of heterogeneous effects suggests that both rehabilitation and deterrence are important factors in reducing long-term recidivism and that EM can be a very cost-effective alternative to short prison sentences.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Anaïs Henneguelle","Benjamin Monnery","Annie Kensey"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0224d25f1490aaa6","title":"Macroeconomic dynamics survey: Endogenous growth theory and models: The “first wave,” 1952–1973","abstract":"This paper surveys the first stage in the development of models of endogenous growth over the two decades between 1952 and 1973, including seminal works by Arrow, Frankel, Phelps, Uzawa, and others as faculty and graduate students who interacted in the Stanford–Chicago–MIT–Yale Nexus. The paper also deals with American Economic Association (AEA) and Econometric Society (ES) conference sessions over the period 1964–1968 on growth, technical progress, and innovations and with the contributions in the 1967 Shell volume, in addition to dissertations, working papers, and book chapters by those involved in the “first wave” over the period 1965–1973. Finally, the paper considers the initial efforts at building more sophisticated models based on technical progress, human capital, increasing returns and imperfect competition, and the incompatibility between increasing returns with competitive equilibrium.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Stephen E. Spear","Warren Young"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000845","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0231ea30980b075b","title":"Unpacking the Long-Run Effects of Tariff Shocks: New Structural Implications from Firm Heterogeneity Models","abstract":"I derive a novel solution for the general equilibrium effects of tariffs that is robust to heterogeneity across industries and countries, and is a function of only aggregate trade data and country-by-industry Pareto shape parameters. Using the model to evaluate tariff shocks, I show that while most countries lose by removing observed tariffs unilaterally, India, Japan, Korea, and the United States gain by doing so, which suggests inefficient tariff discrimination. In evaluating multilateral shocks, observed tariff cuts over 1994 –2000 benefit 69 percent of countries, with these benefits skewed toward developing nations. In contrast, removing all post-2000 tariffs benefit the developed.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Alan Spearot"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140015","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-023ea2d748877f8c","title":"A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications","abstract":"In the United States, unemployment insurance (UI) is more generous when unemployment is high. This paper examines whether this policy is desirable. The optimal UI replacement rate is the Baily-Chetty replacement rate plus a correction term measuring the effect of UI on welfare through labor market tightness. Empirical evidence suggests that tightness is inefficiently low in slumps and inefficiently high in booms, and that an increase in UI raises tightness. Hence, the correction term is positive in slumps but negative in booms, and optimal UI is indeed countercyclical. Since there remains some uncertainty about the empirical evidence, the paper provides a thorough sensitivity analysis.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Camille Landais","Pascal Michaillat","Emmanuel Saez"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160462","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-02485b4a553c03b9","title":"Access to Migration for Rural Households","abstract":"This paper exploits a unique feature of China’s history, the “sent-down youth” (SDY ) program, to study the effects of access to internal migration. We show that temporary migration due to the SDY program created lasting inter-province links. We interact these links with two time-varying pull measures in potential destinations. Decades after the SDY program ended, increased access to migration in cities that sent SDY leads to higher rates of migration from provinces where those SDY temporarily resided. We find that improved access to migration leads to lower consumption volatility and lower asset holding. Furthermore, household production shifts into high-risk, high-return activities.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Cynthia Kinnan","Shing-Yi Wang","Yongxiang Wang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","P","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160395","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-024e6a697aa000a4","title":"Cascading Failures in Production Networks","abstract":"This paper analyzes a general equilibrium economy featuring input‐output connections, imperfect competition, and external economies of scale owing to entry and exit. The interaction of input‐output networks with industry‐level market structure affects the amplification of shocks and the pattern of diffusion in the model, generating cascades of firm entry and exit across the economy. In this model, sales provide a poor measure of the systemic importance of industries. Unlike the relevant notions of centrality in competitive constant‐returns‐to‐scale models, systemic importance depends on the industry's role as both a supplier and a consumer of inputs, as well as the market structure of industries. A basic calibration of the model suggests that aggregate output is three times more volatile in response to labor productivity shocks when compared to a perfectly competitive model.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["David Baqaee"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15280","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-025222abf446e2eb","title":"Integrating Immigrants: The Impact of Restructuring Active Labor Market Programs","abstract":"We examine the impact of restructuring active labor market programs for unemployed immigrants in Finland. Exploiting a discontinuity in the phase-in rules of the reform, we find that it increased compliers’ cumulative earnings by 47% over a 10-year follow-up period. We attribute these improvements to a more efficient use of existing resources. The reform did not affect total days in training, but it did modify the content toward training specifically designed for immigrants.","wordCount":73,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Matti Sarvimäki","Kari Hämäläinen"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/683667","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-025ac24024810d85","title":"Cooperation, punishment, and group change in multilevel public goods experiments","abstract":"Peer punishment is regarded as an important element in sustaining human cooperation for public good provision. Many behavioral experiments have shown that public good provision is higher if cooperation norms can be enforced by peer punishment. However, these experiments predominantly focus on single-group public goods, in which people have to choose between their private interests and the interests of their group. In many societal problems, people are involved in multilevel public goods problems, where multiple local groups are nested within a larger global group. We study experimentally how punishment affects cooperation and norms in multilevel public goods games. In our games, two local groups are nested within a larger global group. Participants have to choose between not contributing, contributing locally, and contributing globally. Local contributions would lead to a polarized outcome where two separate local public goods are provided, whereas global contributions would lead to a unified global good that benefits all. Moreover, we study whether cooperation and punishment patterns depend on the type of public good participants are initially exposed to: single-group or multilevel. Participants either begin in a single-group public goods game and then shift to a multilevel public goods game or vice versa. We find that punishment is less effective in multilevel public goods games than in single-group public goods games. In particular, punishment only promotes cooperation in multilevel public goods games if people have prior experience with solving single-group public goods games. Our results refine the boundary conditions for the effectiveness of punishment and suggest that ‘starting small’ by first solving single-group public goods problems is necessary for successful multilevel public good provision.","wordCount":267,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Kasper Otten","Vincent Buskens","Wojtek Przepiorka","Boaz R. Cherki","Salomon Israel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104682","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0279ed5888bc527a","title":"Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?","abstract":"The literature has argued that developing countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies due to financial imperfections and unfavourable political‐economy conditions. Using a world sample of up to 112 industrial and developing countries for 1984–2008, we find that the level of institutional quality plays a key role in countries’ ability and willingness to implement countercyclical macroeconomic policies. Countries with strong (weak) institutions adopt countercyclical (procyclical) macroeconomic policies, reflected in extended monetary policy and fiscal policy rules. The threshold levels of institutional quality at which policies are acyclical are found to be similar for monetary and fiscal policy.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["César Calderón","Roberto Duncan","Klaus Schmidt‐Hebbel"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12132","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0285a687f3f71229","title":"Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates","abstract":"We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced-form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For another example, the long-run correlation with the proportion of 40 to 64 year-olds in the population is negative. This is consistent with standard theory where middle-aged workers are high savers who drive down real interest rates. In contrast to standard theory, we do not find productivity to be positively correlated with real rates. Most other variables have a mixed relationship with the real rate, with long-run correlations that are statistically or economically large in some samples and by some measures but not in others.","wordCount":174,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Kurt G. Lunsford","Kenneth D. West"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0288e614d933e040","title":"Non-farm entrepreneurship in rural sub-Saharan Africa: New empirical evidence","abstract":"We report on the prevalence and patterns of non-farm enterprises in six sub-Saharan African countries, and study their performance in terms of labor productivity, survival and exit, using the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). Rural households operate enterprises due to both push and pull factors and tend to do so predominantly in easy-to-enter activities, such as sales and trade, rather than in activities that require higher starting costs, such as transport services, or educational investment, such as professional services. Labor productivity differs widely: rural and female-headed enterprises, those located further away from population centers, and businesses that operate intermittently have lower levels of labor productivity compared to urban and male-owned enterprises, or enterprises that operate throughout the year. Finally, rural enterprises exit the market primarily due to a lack of profitability or finance, and due to idiosyncratic shocks.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Paula Nagler","Wim Naudé"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.019","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-02935f28dbe8c82d","title":"ProPelled: The Effects of Grants on Graduation, Earnings, and Welfare","abstract":"We estimate effects of the Pell Grant—the largest US federal [grant] college students—using administrative data from Texas public colleges and a discontinuity in [grant] for low-income students. Within four-year institutions, eligibility for additional [grant] significantly increases first-time students’ degree completion and later earnings. Our estimated impacts on earnings alone are enough to fully recoup government expenditures within 10 years, suggesting that financial aid likely pays for itself several times over.","wordCount":70,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jeffrey T. Denning","Benjamin Marx","Lesley J. Turner"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180100","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-029cb10ee3c1e268","title":"Time preferences and risk aversion: Tests on domain differences","abstract":"Understanding how individuals discount and evaluate the risks of environmental outcomes is a prime component in designing effective environmental policy. We use an incentivized experimental design to investigate whether subjects’ time preferences and risk aversion across the monetary and environmental domains differ. We find that subjects’ time preferences are not significantly different across the two domains. In contrast, subjects exhibit a higher degree of risk aversion in the environmental domain. Furthermore, we corroborate earlier results, documenting that women are more risk averse than men in the monetary domain, and show this finding to also hold in the environmental domain.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Christos A. Ioannou","Jana Sadeh"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9245-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-029de0c0ecc7900d","title":"Carbon is forever: A climate change experiment on cooperation","abstract":"Greenhouse gases generate impacts that can last longer than human civilization itself. Such persistence may affect the behavioral ability to cooperate. In a laboratory experiment, we study mitigation efforts with dynamic externalities in a framework that reflects key features of climate change. In treatments with persistence, pollution cumulates and generates damages over time, while in another treatment it has only immediate effects and then disappears. We show that with pollution persistence, cooperation is initially high but then systematically deteriorates with high stocks of pollution.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Giacomo Calzolari","Marco Casari","Riccardo Ghidoni"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.09.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-02a8291ab63a9b7c","title":"A social norm nudge to save more: A field experiment at a retail bank","abstract":"A large fraction of households have very little savings buffer and are therefore vulnerable to financial shocks. This paper examines whether a social norm nudge can induce such households to save more. We ran a large-scale field experiment at a retail bank in the Netherlands. We find that households who are exposed to the social norm nudge click more often on a link to a personal web page where they can start or adjust an automatic savings plan. However, analyzing detailed bank data, we find no treatment effect on actual savings, neither in the short run nor in the long run. Our null findings are quite precisely estimated. A complementary small-scale survey experiment suggests that people did notice the social norm nudge and also that it had an impact on savings intentions.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Robert Dur","Dimitry Fleming","Marten van Garderen","Max van Lent"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104443","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-02b2a61d2e5cb5bf","title":"The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions","abstract":"Since 2007, US coal-fired electricity generation has declined by a stunning 25 percent. Detailed daily unit-level data is used to examine the joint impact of natural gas prices and wind generation on coal-fired generation and emissions, with a focus on the interaction between gas prices and wind. This interaction is found to be significant. Marginal responses of coal-fired generation to natural gas prices (wind) in 2013 were larger, sometimes much larger, than the counterfactual with 2008 wind generation (gas prices). Additionally, these factors jointly account for the vast majority of the observed decline in generation and emissions.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Harrison Fell","Daniel Kaffine"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150321","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-02c3270b43e28a73","title":"The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches","abstract":"Speeches are an important vehicle for central bankers to convey individual views on the preferred policy stance. In this article, we employ an automated text linguistic approach to create an indicator that measures the tone of the 1,618 speeches delivered by members of the Governing Council (GC) during the period 1999M1–2014M4. We then relate this variable to euro area and national macroeconomic forecasts. Our key findings are as follows. First, inflation and growth expectations have a positive and significant impact on the hawkishness of a speech. Second, different growth expectations across the euro area and different preferences significantly explain discrepancies across speakers. Third, the voiced preferences of presidents of the national central banks (NCBs) largely coincide with the level of independence their central banks had at the time of the Maastricht Treaty. However, in general, there are not much differences between members of the Executive Board and the NCB presidents. Fourth, we find some evidence that central bankers adjust the gist of their speeches depending on whether they talk at home or abroad and before or after a GC meeting. Finally, differences in central banker preferences are the key source of variation in their speeches before the financial crisis.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Hamza Bennani","Matthias Neuenkirch"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1210782","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-02cbcffe4719a9a5","title":"The Pollution Premium","abstract":"This paper studies the asset pricing implications of industrial pollution. A long‐short portfolio constructed from firms with high versus low toxic emission intensity within an industry generates an average annual return of 4.42%, which remains significant after controlling for risk factors. This pollution premium cannot be explained by existing systematic risks, investor preferences, market sentiment, political connections, or corporate governance. We propose and model a new systematic risk related to environmental policy uncertainty. We use the growth in environmental litigation penalties to measure regime change risk and find that it helps price the cross section of emission portfolios' returns.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["PO‐HSUAN HSU","Kai Li","Chi-Yang Tsou"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13217","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-02cf61012dacce9a","title":"Particulate Pollution and the Productivity of Pear Packers","abstract":"We study the effect of outdoor air pollution on the productivity of indoor workers at a pear-packing factory. Increases in fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), a pollutant that readily penetrates indoors, leads to significant decreases in productivity, with effects arising at levels below air quality standards. In contrast, pollutants that do not travel indoors, such as ozone, have little, if any, effect on productivity. This effect of outdoor pollution on indoor worker productivity suggests an overlooked consequence of pollution. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest the labor savings from nationwide reductions in PM 2.5 generated a sizable fraction of total welfare benefits.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Tom Chang","Joshua Graff Zivin","Tal Gross","Matthew Neidell"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150085","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-02d857abbd3dec9d","title":"How do firms cope with losses from extreme weather events?","abstract":"We document the investment and financing decisions of firms that experience monetary losses due to extreme weather events. Our sample covers firms operating in 41 economies, mainly emerging and developing markets. Consistent with the need to either replenish damaged capital or to adapt to climate change, firms with weather-related losses are more likely to invest in long-term assets and integrate climate-friendly measures into their production processes. On average, these firms have higher needs for bank credit and are less likely to be discouraged from applying for a loan. Small firms appear particularly vulnerable to physical climate risk as they show a lower propensity to invest, while they are in greater need for bank credit. Firms with losses from extreme weather events are more leveraged, which suggests that climate change has the potential to erode balance sheets over time.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Emanuela Benincasa","Frank Betz","Luca Gattini"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102508","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-02f9a7f03da6a7bb","title":"Bankruptcy prediction of privately held SMEs using feature selection methods","abstract":"We test alternative feature selection methods for bankruptcy prediction and illustrate their superiority versus popular models used in the literature. We apply these methods to a comprehensive dataset of more than 1.8 million financial statements covering the entire universe of privately held Norwegian SMEs in 2006–2020. We find that input variables chosen by an embedded least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method yield the best in-sample fit, out-of-sample performance, and stability, robust across different time periods and estimation techniques. In a real-world simulation of a competitive credit market, even small differences in model performance translate into large differences in bank profitability, with LASSO outperforming all alternatives. Finally, contrasting bankruptcy predictors for SMEs with those for larger firms reveals economically meaningful differences consistent with theory: leverage and liquidity dominate for SMEs while profitability matters more for larger firms, reflecting SMEs’ higher refinancing risk and limited access to external financing. Predictors tailored specifically to SMEs yield superior prediction performance and higher bank profitability than those derived from larger firms.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Florentina Paraschiv","Markus Schmid","Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101725","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-031c884ec1cb7ca3","title":"Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs","abstract":"We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various identification schemes and several variants of LP and VAR estimators, employing bias correction, shrinkage, or model averaging. A clear bias–variance trade-off emerges: LP estimators have lower bias than VAR estimators, but they also have substantially higher variance at intermediate and long horizons. Bias-corrected LP is the preferred method if and only if the researcher overwhelmingly prioritizes bias. For researchers who also care about precision, VAR methods are the most attractive—Bayesian VARs at short and long horizons, and least-squares VARs at intermediate and long horizons.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Dake Li","Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller","Christian K. Wolf"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105722","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-032365108b93f419","title":"Fiscal uncertainty and sovereign credit risk","abstract":"Periods of economic crisis and large fiscal interventions are often associated with elevated levels of uncertainty about governments’ future fiscal positions. This paper studies the impact of fiscal uncertainty on sovereign credit risk, and on the attention paid to expert assessments of such risk, using the example of sovereign credit ratings. Employing data that covers the Global Financial Crisis, a measure of fiscal uncertainty is constructed that is comparable across time and a range of advanced economies. To estimate the determinants of sovereign credit risk, an empirical framework is developed that accounts for the high stability of credit ratings over time by way of a new estimator for ordered and partially unobserved outcomes. Attention to credit rating announcements is measured using movements in financial market prices and internet search volume. Results suggest that fiscal uncertainty increases the predictive power of a model of sovereign credit ratings and can explain why credit ratings are often changed more frequently during crises. Sovereign credit ratings also gain more attention when uncertainty is high with the potential to aggravate sovereign distress.","wordCount":177,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Arno Hantzsche"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104245","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-032604a6f91406bd","title":"Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation","abstract":"We develop a framework for difference-in-differences designs with staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous causal effects. We show that conventional regression-based estimators fail to provide unbiased estimates of relevant estimands absent strong restrictions on treatment-effect homogeneity. We then derive the efficient estimator addressing this challenge, which takes an intuitive “imputation” form when treatment-effect heterogeneity is unrestricted. We characterize the asymptotic behaviour of the estimator, propose tools for inference, and develop tests for identifying assumptions. Our method applies with time-varying controls, in triple-difference designs, and with certain non-binary treatments. We show the practical relevance of our results in a simulation study and an application. Studying the consumption response to tax rebates in the U.S., we find that the notional marginal propensity to consume is between 8 and 11% in the first quarter—about half as large as benchmark estimates used to calibrate macroeconomic models—and predominantly occurs in the first month after the rebate.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Kirill Borusyak","Xavier Jaravel","Jann Spiess"],"year":2024,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","C","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-032a052684d89186","title":"Early Life Circumstance and Adult Mental Health","abstract":"We show that psychological well-being in adulthood varies with circumstance in early life. Combining a time series of real producer prices of cocoa with a nationally representative household survey in Ghana, we find that a one standard deviation rise in the cocoa price in early life decreases the likelihood of severe mental distress in adulthood by 3 percentage points (half the mean prevalence) for cohorts born in cocoa-producing regions relative to those born in other regions. Impacts on related personality traits are consistent with this result. Maternal nutrition, reinforcing childhood investments, and adult circumstance are likely operative channels of impact.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Achyuta Adhvaryu","James Fenske","Anant Nyshadham"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701606","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-033be3209c530b77","title":"Minimum Wage Shocks, Employment Flows, and Labor Market Frictions","abstract":"We provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the US labor market, identifying the impact by using policy discontinuities at state borders. We find that minimum wages have a sizable negative effect on employment flows but not on stocks. Separations and accessions fall among affected workers, especially those with low tenure. We do not find changes in the duration of nonemployment for separations or hires. This evidence is consistent with search models with endogenous separations.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Arindrajit Dubé","T. William Lester","Michael Reich"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/685449","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-033c615c0b1e81e6","title":"Priced risk in corporate bonds","abstract":"Recent studies document strong empirical support for multifactor models that aim to explain the cross-sectional variation in corporate bond expected excess returns. We revisit these findings and provide evidence that common factor pricing in corporate bonds is exceedingly difficult to establish. Based on portfolio- and bond-level analyses, we demonstrate that previously proposed bond risk factors, with traded liquidity as the only marginal exception, do not have any incremental explanatory power over the corporate bond market factor. Consequently, this implies that the bond CAPM is not dominated by either traded- or nontraded-factor models in pairwise and multiple model comparison tests.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Alexander Dickerson","Philippe Mueller","Cesare Robotti"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103707","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-0342481bc95e9803","title":"Consumer search with observational learning","abstract":"This article studies observational learning in a consumer search environment. Consumers observe the purchasing decision of a predecessor with similar preferences. Consumers rationally emulate by initiating their search at the firm from which their predecessor purchased, free‐riding on search effort, and reacting less to price changes. Prices are nonmonotone in search costs and may be as low as marginal costs. We discuss several extensions and show that the effect of emulation on prices is stronger when (i) the number of firms increases, (ii) consumers' first visits are more elastic with respect to market shares, and (iii) prices are adjusted more frequently.","wordCount":101,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Daniel Garcia","Sandro Shelegia"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12224","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-034b0662b6bf2c16","title":"On the effects of taxation on growth: an empirical assessment","abstract":"We study the effects of taxation on the growth rate of the real per capita GDP in a sample of 21 OECD countries, over the period 1965–2010. To do this, we estimate a version of the model proposed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil [(1992) Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 407–437.] augmented to consider both direct and indirect effects of taxation on investment share parameters. We employ a semi-parametric technique—namely, a Finite Mixture Model—which combines features from mixed effect models for panel data and cluster analysis methods to account for country-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Our results suggest that taxes have a negative impact on growth: in the baseline model, the coefficient estimates indicate that a 10% cut in personal income tax rate (respectively corporate income tax rate) may raise the GDP growth rate by 0.6% (respectively 0.3%).","wordCount":135,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Marco Alfò","Lorenzo Carbonari","Giovanni Trovato"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000219","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0350ec9be6db30b7","title":"Is carbon pricing regressive? Insights from a recursive-dynamic CGE analysis with heterogeneous households for Austria","abstract":"We explore the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of unilateral carbon pricing in Austrian economic sectors, which are not covered by the EU emission trading scheme ETS, under various assumptions of revenue usage. We use a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model with twelve groups of private households, differentiated by income quartile and location of residence. Pricing of non-ETS CO2 emissions without any targeted compensation of households turns out to be progressive (when measured in equivalent variation, or welfare) with households living in the periphery being affected the most. This outcome is explained by the dominating progressive factor income effect, which works against regressive consumer price impacts. Considering the positive contribution to welfare from increased public goods provision, low-income households are even better off than without carbon pricing. We compare the revenue usage options ‘no targeted compensation’ with either unconditional or revenue-neutral ‘eco-bonus per capita payments’ as well as revenue-neutral cuts in either ‘labor tax rates’ or ‘value added tax rates.’ We discuss our results from a Utilitarian, Rawlsian and polarization-averse equity perspective. Applying equal weights to the criteria ‘environmental effectiveness’, ‘cost effectiveness’, ‘public budget’ and ‘welfare’, Rawlsian decision makers would prefer the no targeted compensation option. Otherwise, the revenue usage option of revenue-neutral cuts in labor tax rates balance best investigated multiple criteria.","wordCount":212,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Jakob Mayer","Anna Dugan","Gabriel Bachner","Karl W. Steininger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105661","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-035886a505b6e782","title":"Environmental Regulations, Political Incentives and Local Economic Activities: Evidence from China","abstract":"How do nationwide environmental regulations produce heterogeneous effects on the economic activities of manufacturing firms located in places with differently incentivized city leaders? This paper answers this question by drawing on a set of firm‐based pollution regulations in China from 2007 to investigate the relationship between political incentives and the effects of environmental regulations. I show that when a city's Party secretary has more incentives to be promoted, the adverse impacts on production by regulated firms tend to increase, but these losses for regulated firms are compensated by gains for other unregulated firms in polluting industries. Therefore, no overall reduction is seen in the manufacturing activities of the polluting industries. The findings suggest that if multitask problems for local governments are properly addressed, environmental regulations can effectively reduce the pollution and avoid large unintended costs to economic growth.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Shiyu Bo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12407","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-03620b7951139bef","title":"Hedging desperation: How kinship networks reduced cannibalism in historical China","abstract":"Survival cannibalism persisted across human societies until recently. What drove the decline in cannibalism and other forms of violence? Using data from the 1470–1910 period, this paper documents that in historical China, the Confucian clan—an institutionalized kinship network—acted as an informal internal market to facilitate intra-clan resource pooling and risk-sharing, thus reducing the need for cannibalism during times of drought-related famine. The risk mitigation role of the clan remains robust after controlling for economic development and other factors and ruling out alternative channels. Thus, kinship networks and their associated culture contributed to human civilizational development before the advent of formal markets.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Zhiwu Chen","Lin Zhan","Xiaoming Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.01.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0362752825d2eaa0","title":"Climate pattern effects on global economic conditions","abstract":"This study investigates how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patterns affect global economic conditions. Prior research suggests that ENSO phases, particularly El Niño, influence economic outcomes, but with limited consensus on their broader macroeconomic impacts. Using a novel monthly dataset from 20 economies, covering 80% of global output from 1999 to 2022, we employ a global augmented vector autoregression with local projections (GAVARLP) model. The empirical findings suggest that El Niño boosts output with minimal inflationary effects, reducing global economic policy uncertainty, while La Niña raises food inflation, which can amplify aggregate inflation as a “second-round” effect, amplifying uncertainty. These findings shed light on the transmission channels of climate shocks and highlight the significant role of ENSO in shaping global economic conditions, emphasizing why climate shocks should be a concern for policy markers.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Gilles Dufrénot","William Ginn","Marc Pourroy"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106920","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-037cf236439bc044","title":"Minimum Wages and the Gender GAP in Pay: New Evidence from the United Kingdom and Ireland","abstract":"Women are disproportionately in low‐paid work compared to men so, in the absence of rationing effects on their employment, they should benefit the most from minimum wage policies. This study examines the change in the gender wage gap around the introduction of minimum wages in Ireland and the United Kingdom (U.K.). Using survey data for the two countries, we develop a decomposition of the change in the gender differences in wage distributions around the date of introduction of minimum wages. We separate out “price” effects attributed to minimum wages from “employment composition” effects. A significant reduction of the gender gap at low wages is observed after the introduction of the minimum wage in Ireland, while there is hardly any change in the U.K. Counterfactual simulations show that the difference between countries may be attributed to gender differences in non‐compliance with the minimum wage legislation in the U.K.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Olivier Bargain","Karina Doorley","Philippe Van Kerm"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12384","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-0381341ca119bff8","title":"IQ, Expectations, and Choice","abstract":"We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of inflation expectations, and the consumption plans of a representative male population. High-IQ men display 50 $\\%$ lower forecast errors for inflation than other men. High-IQ men, but not others, have consistent inflation expectations and perceptions over time. In terms of choice, only high-IQ men increase their consumption propensity when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. Education levels, income, other expectations, and socio-economic status, although important, do not explain the variation in expectations and choice by IQ. Recent modelling attempts to incorporate boundedly rational agents into macro models do not fully capture all the facts we document. We discuss which dimensions of expectations formation and choice are important for heterogeneous-agents models of household consumption and for the transmission of fiscal and monetary policy.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Francesco D’Acunto","Daniel Hoang","Maritta Paloviita","Michael Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac075","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-03875875f478e88b","title":"Loose Cannons: War Veterans and the Erosion of Democracy in Weimar Germany","abstract":"This article shows that democracy in Weimar Germany was eroded by the political legacy of WWI. Using novel data on WWI veterans and an election panel from 1893–1933, I find that former soldiers are associated with a sizeable, persistent, and momentous shift in political preferences from left to right. I provide suggestive evidence that war participation made veterans highly receptive to nationalism and Anti-Communism. This alienated them from leftwing parties and drove the majority toward the political right. Contrary to historical accounts, veterans’ shifts in political preferences cannot be explained by exposure to violence or other polarizing post-war events.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Christoph Koenig"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000523","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-038b3b6ad83b6247","title":"Minimum wages and firm employment: Evidence from a minimum wage reduction in Greece","abstract":"We investigate firm heterogeneity in responses to minimum wage changes leveraging on a policy reform in 2012 in Greece that introduced a youth sub-minimum through a sharp reduction in the minimum wage that was larger for youth. Using administrative linked employer–employee panel data and a difference-in-differences estimator, we find that, although wages decreased across all firms following the policy reform, adult wages decreased by more, whereas youth wages decreased by less in firms with a higher share of youth in employment. We also find that, in these firms, adult employment increased by more, while youth employment increased by less or even decreased and that these changes reflected mainly new hires rather than job separations. These heterogeneous responses to the change in the minimum wage across firms are not entirely consistent with the competitive model of the labour market.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Andreas Georgiadis","Ioannis Kaplanis","Vassilis Monastiriotis"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109255","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-039d1a9bf6ee4796","title":"Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know","abstract":"We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages—e.g., in the auto sector—can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio. Originally prepared for the Spring 2024 [working paper series] conference on “Inflation in the Covid era and beyond”.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Jan Hatzius"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-03afbb39fc9ceac1","title":"Separating Bayesian Updating from Non-Probabilistic Reasoning: An Experimental Investigation","abstract":"Through a series of decision tasks involving colored cards, we provide separate measures of Bayesian updating and non-probabilistic reasoning skills. We apply these measures to (and are the first to study) a common-value Dutch auction. This format is more salient than the strategically equivalent first-price auction and silent Dutch formats in hinting that one should condition one's estimate of the value on having the highest bid. Both Bayesian updating skills and non-probabilistic reasoning skills are shown to help subjects correct for the winner's curse, as does the saliency of the active-clock Dutch format.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Dan Levin","James Peck","Asen Ivanov"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140008","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-03b026b340cc4ed1","title":"The case for a positive euro area inflation target: Evidence from france, germany and italy","abstract":"Using micro price data underlying the consumer price index, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle in France, Germany and Italy. Minimizing the welfare consequences of relative price distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive inflation rate: the steady-state inflation rate jointly maximizing welfare in all three countries ranges between 1.1%-1.7%. The welfare costs of targeting an inflation rate of zero, as suggested by monetary models ignoring relative price trends, or of targeting 4% amount to several percentage points of consumption.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Klaus Adam","Erwan Gautier","Sergio Santoro","Henning Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.09.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-03b1514beb0d406f","title":"To what extent does corporate liquidity affect M&A decisions, method of payment and performance? Evidence from China","abstract":"Using a panel of Chinese listed firms over the period 1998–2015, we examine the extent to which liquidity impacts firms' acquisition decisions, method of payment choice, and performance following mergers. We observe that cash-rich firms are more likely to attempt acquisitions, especially if they are subject to tunneling. Next, we find that bidders with higher growth opportunities are less likely to use cash payments in acquisitions. This effect is stronger for financially constrained bidders, who face greater opportunity costs of holding cash. Our last set of results highlights the under-performance of cash acquisitions in both the short and long term.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Junhong Yang","Alessandra Guariglia","Jie Guo"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.09.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-03b9566f0cf1f2e4","title":"Minimum Wages and the Distribution of Family Incomes","abstract":"There is robust evidence that higher minimum wages increase family incomes at the bottom of the distribution. The long-run (3 or more years) minimum wage elasticity of the non-elderly poverty rate with respect to the minimum wage ranges between −0.220 and −0.459 across alternative specifications. The long-run minimum wage elasticities for the tenth and fifteenth unconditional quantiles of family income range between 0.152 and 0.430 depending on specification. A reduction in public assistance partly offsets these income gains, which are on average 66 percent as large when using an expanded income definition including tax credits and noncash transfers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Arindrajit Dubé"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170085","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-03c08ad313908134","title":"Shades of grey: Risk-related agency conflicts and corporate innovation","abstract":"We investigate how risk-related agency conflicts affect valuable risky investments. Using an exogenous negative shock to shareholders' litigation rights from an unanticipated court ruling that exacerbates risk-related agency conflicts by shielding managers from shareholders' governance through litigation, we show that innovation inputs and quality decline significantly for treated firms. Small firms lacking counteracting governance mechanisms, such as institutional investors, suffer significantly, while large firms with high institutional investments emerge unscathed. Our results are consistent with theories that predict managerial incentives for ‘playing safe’ lead to value-destroying and risk-reducing actions, especially when counteracting incentive mechanisms are muted.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Emdad Islam","Lubna Rahman"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102475","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-03c17616ff8c02e8","title":"Efficacy or delivery? An online Discrete Choice Experiment to explore preferences for COVID-19 vaccines in the UK","abstract":"COVID-19 vaccines are widely regarded as an integral component in the UK's pandemic recovery, and a comprehensive distribution strategy will be required to maximise uptake. However, to date, there is a dearth of research into factors that could lead to UK residents' acceptance or rejection of COVID-19 vaccines. This study used a discrete choice experiment to investigate the importance of vaccine properties, delivery and media coverage in amplifying or attenuating vaccine uptake. Efficacy was found to be the factor that most influenced vaccine selection; further, the positive effect of high efficacy was more pronounced for those aged 55+. Insights from this DCE aim to assist policymakers and public health communicators in planning and refining their delivery strategy for COVID-19 vaccines.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Robert McPhedran","Ben Toombs"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109747","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-03c4bfe8aa91dfc2","title":"How social movements contribute to staying within the global carbon budget: Evidence from a qualitative meta-analysis of case studies","abstract":"Despite renewed efforts to combat climate change, it remains uncertain how economies will achieve emission reduction by 2050. Among different decarbonisation strategies, knowledge about the potential role and contributions of social movements to curbing carbon emissions has been limited. This study aims to shed light on the diverse contributions of social movements to staying within the global carbon budget, as well as on the specific outcomes and strategies employed in protests against hydrocarbon activities. For this purpose, we conduct a systematic literature review of 57 empirical cases of social movements contesting fossil fuel projects in 29 countries. Based on an exploratory approach, we identify a series of different movement strategies and a range of qualitative contributions that support staying within the carbon budget. These include raising awareness of risks and strategies, enhancing corporate responsibility, being informed about policy changes, laws and regulations, fostering just energy transitions, energy democracy, divestment, alternative market solutions, and forcing the postponement or cancellation of targeted hydrocarbon activities. While the institutional means are widely used and seem to support policy change and regulation, these strategies are not used to deliver awareness or postponement outcomes. Similarly, while movements tend to rely on civil disobedience to stop hydrocarbon projects in the short term, they rely on multiple strategies to cancel them in the longer term. Our study also indicates significant knowledge gaps in the literature, particularly, cases in Africa and Central Asia, women's participation in these movements, in addition to more quantitative assessments of the actual emissions reduced by social movements.","wordCount":253,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["May Aye Thiri","Sergio Villamayor‐Tomás","Arnim Scheidel","Federico Demaria"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107356","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-03ce3dce209c2708","title":"Dimensions of donation preferences: the structure of peer and income effects","abstract":"Charitable donations provide positive externalities and can potentially be increased with an understanding of donor preferences. We obtain a uniquely comprehensive characterization of donation motives using an experiment that varies treatments between and within subjects. Donations are increasing in peers’ donations and past subjects’ donations. These and other results suggest a model of heterogeneous beliefs about the social norm for giving. Estimation of such a model reveals substantial heterogeneity in subjects’ beliefs about and adherence to the norm. A simple fundraising strategy increases donations by an estimated 30% by exploiting previously unstudied correlations between dimensions of donor preferences.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Michalis Drouvelis","Benjamin Marx"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09661-z","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-03cff4737a084f39","title":"Structural reforms, animal spirits, and monetary policies","abstract":"We use a New Keynesian behavioral macroeconomic model to analyze how structural reforms affect the economy. There are two types of structural reforms. The first one increases price flexibility; the second one increases competition in the labor market and raises potential output. We find that in a rigid economy business cycle movements are dominated by movements of animal spirits. Increasing price flexibility reduces the power of animal spirits and the boom bust nature of the business cycle. We study the trade-offs between output and inflation volatility faced by the central bank. We find that flexibility improves these trade-offs making it easier for the central bank to stabilize output and inflation.","wordCount":110,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Paul De Grauwe","Yuemei Ji"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103395","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-03dc9c220733551c","title":"Differences in tax evasion attitudes between students and entrepreneurs under the slippery slope framework","abstract":"We raised a question of differences in declared tax evasion attitudes between students and entrepreneurs under the slippery slope framework of tax compliance. Scenarios were used to manipulate the two dimensions of the framework, trust in authorities and power of authorities (high versus low trust; high versus low power), in an imagined country named Varosia. After reading one of the four scenarios, economics and finance students and entrepreneurs from Poland reported their tax compliance intentions. Tax evasion attitudes were different for entrepreneurs and students. Results indicated that students were more prone to tax evasion but this effect could be mitigated by particularly increasing the power of authorities. Conversely, for entrepreneurs, trust in authorities had a stronger impact on tax compliance than enforcement. Low tax morale was a significant predictor of high tax evasion in both groups.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Larissa M. Batrancea","Janusz Kudła","Barbara Błaszczak","Mateusz Kopyt"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-03de6b44be8ee0fc","title":"From Russia with love: International risk-sharing, sanctions, and firm investments","abstract":"We propose a novel explanation for why sanctions on Russian firms might not work as intended: these firms’ ability to diversify sanction risks via partner countries friendly with Russia. Using indirect links with partner firms as a plausibly exogenous proxy for this risk-sharing channel, we show that exposed Russian firms were able to leverage these links to alleviate the negative impacts of sanctions in 2014.","wordCount":65,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Kiet Tuan Duong","Luu Duc Toan Huynh","Dang Bao Anh Phan","Nam Thanh Vu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","P","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-03e07ef324ff5c28","title":"The impacts of workers' remittances on human capital and labor supply in developing countries","abstract":"This study investigates the impacts of workers' remittances on human capital and labor supply by using data for 122 developing countries from 1990 to 2015. This topic has not been explored thoroughly at the aggregate level, mainly due to endogeneity of remittances and the difficulty in finding instruments to resolve this issue. To address the endogeneity of remittances, I estimate bilateral remittances and use them to create weighted indicators of remittance-sending countries. These weighted indicators are used as instruments for remittance inflow to remittance-receiving countries. Results obtained in this study indicate that remittances raise per capita health expenditures and reduce undernourishment prevalence, depth of food deficit, prevalence of stunting, and child mortality rate. Remittances also raise school enrollment, school completion rate, and private school enrollment. Although there is no difference in the impact of remittances on the health outcome of boys and girls, remittances improve the educational outcome of girls more than the educational outcome of boys. Further, remittances decrease the female labor force participation rate but do not affect the male labor force participation rate.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["SeyedSoroosh Azizi"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.07.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-03ec1eabd7823c87","title":"Bond issuance and the funding choices of European banks: The consequences of public debt","abstract":"European banks raise less funds in the bond market when there is a larger public debt in their national economies and this is reflected in lower leverage. We exploit numerous sources of heterogeneity in our data to demonstrate this result is driven by a crowding out effect from the public arena and not by a sovereign risk channel or political influence. The crowding out effect is stronger for less internationally active or smaller banks, and in banks characterized by more traditional business models. Our findings indicate that additional capital requirements on sovereign bond holdings can also influence bank funding composition via a decrease in the demand for sovereign bonds by the banking industry. The specific effect of these regulatory initiatives is critically dependent on bank characteristics.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Michela Rancan","Jessica Cariboni","Kevin Keasey","Francesco Vallascas"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101417","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-03ec4d4c39a4c58a","title":"A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance","abstract":"Rational demand for index insurance products is shown to be fundamentally different to that for indemnity insurance products due to the presence of basis risk. In particular, optimal demand is zero for infinitely risk-averse individuals, and is nonmonotonic in risk aversion, wealth, and price. For a given belief, upper bounds are derived for the optimal demand from risk-averse and decreasing absolute risk-averse decision makers. A simple ratio for monitoring basis risk is presented and applied to explain the low level of demand for consumer hedging instruments as a rational response to deadweight costs and basis risk.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Daniel Clarke"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140103","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-03eda5ccf9ae4199","title":"Contraception and development: A unified growth theory","abstract":"This study investigates the interaction of the use of modern contraceptives, fertility, education, and long‐run growth. It develops an economic model that takes into account that sexual intercourse is utility enhancing and that birth control by modern contraceptives is more efficient but more costly than traditional methods. The study shows how a traditional economy, in which modern contraceptives are not used, gradually converges toward a high growth regime, in which modern contraceptives are used. Lower prices or higher efficacy of contraceptives are conducive to an earlier onset of the fertility transition and a quicker takeoff to modern growth.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Holger Strulik"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12227","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-03fa60a07c6d5c84","title":"Strategic behaviour by wind generators: An empirical investigation","abstract":"Renewable generation of electricity is a vital step in reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and wind generation is particularly important in countries such as Britain. A large part of the windfarms are in Scotland but links with England are relatively limited and subject to exogenous failure of an interconnector. As a consequence, for a significant portion of time the system operator imposes constraints on wind generation in Scotland. We investigate the resulting effects on a majority subset of these windfarms operating under a scheme called Renewables Obligation, which involves a subsidy on top of market price. One feature of this scheme is that windfarms each declare a price at which they are willing to be constrained; these prices are used in the selection of windfarms to constrain when necessary. Thus, windfarms are sometimes paid not to produce. We investigate the strategic consequences of this, given that the prices set by windfarms to turn off in practice exceed the opportunity cost, finding significant evidence consistent with windfarm strategic behaviour. Specifically, we observe that in making their final physical declarations of output, the sample windfarms overestimate their final physical notifications of generation, the more so when other circumstances suggest constraints will be required. Following our findings we propose two potential policies to reduce both the extent of over-prediction and the payments made to windfarms to curtail output.","wordCount":225,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Mario Intini","Michael Waterson"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102947","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-040b31348247dc34","title":"The Effect of Pollution on Worker Productivity: Evidence from Call Center Workers in China","abstract":"We investigate the effect of pollution on worker productivity in the service sector by focusing on two call centers in China. Using precise measures of each worker’s daily output linked to daily measures of pollution and meteorology, we find that higher levels of air pollution decrease worker productivity. These results manifest themselves at levels of pollution commonly found in large cities throughout the developing and developed world.","wordCount":67,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Tom Chang","Joshua Graff Zivin","Tal Gross","Matthew Neidell"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160436","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-041131335ced4717","title":"Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development","abstract":"COVID-19 is proving to be the long awaited 'big one': a pandemic capable of bringing societies and economies to their knees. There is an urgent need to examine how COVID-19 - as a health and development crisis - unfolded the way it did it and to consider possibilities for post-pandemic transformations and for rethinking development more broadly. Drawing on over a decade of research on epidemics, we argue that the origins, unfolding and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic require analysis that addresses both structural political-economic conditions alongside far less ordered, 'unruly' processes reflecting complexity, uncertainty, contingency and context-specificity. This structural-unruly duality in the conditions and processes of pandemic emergence, progression and impact provides a lens to view three key challenge areas. The first is how scientific advice and evidence are used in policy, when conditions are rigidly 'locked in' to established power relations and yet so uncertain. Second is how economies function, with the COVID-19 crisis having revealed the limits of a conventional model of economic growth. The third concerns how new forms of politics can become the basis of reshaped citizen-state relations in confronting a pandemic, such as those around mutual solidarity and care. COVID-19 demonstrates that we face an uncertain future, where anticipation of and resilience to major shocks must become the core problematic of development studies and practice. Where mainstream approaches to development have been top down, rigid and orientated towards narrowly-defined economic goals, post-COVID-19 development must have a radically transformative, egalitarian and inclusive knowledge and politics at its core.","wordCount":253,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Melissa Leach","Hayley MacGregor","Ian Scoones","Annie Wilkinson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105233","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-041ad6ea8be2590d","title":"Price level targeting with evolving credibility","abstract":"Global learning dynamics for price-level targeting (PLT) monetary policy are analyzed and compared to inflation targeting in a nonlinear New Keynesian model. Domain of attraction of target steady state is a new robustness criterion for policy regimes. Robustness of PLT depends on whether a known target path is incorporated into learning. Credibility is measured by accuracy of this forecasting method relative to simple statistical forecasts evolving through reinforcement learning. Initial credibility and target price are key factors influencing performance. Model results are in line with the Swedish experience of price stabilization in1930’s.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Seppo Honkapohja","Kaushik Mitra"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.09.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0425de0fe0d316dc","title":"Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence From Linked Survey and Administrative Data","abstract":"We use large-scale federal survey data linked to administrative death records to investigate the relationship between Medicaid enrollment and mortality. Our analysis compares changes in mortality for near-elderly adults in states with and without Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions. We identify adults most likely to benefit using survey information on socioeconomic status, citizenship status, and public program participation. We find that prior to the ACA expansions, mortality rates across expansion and nonexpansion states trended similarly, but beginning in the first year of the policy, there were significant reductions in mortality in states that opted to expand relative to nonexpanders. Individuals in expansion states experienced a 0.132 percentage point decline in annual mortality, a 9.4% reduction over the sample mean, as a result of the Medicaid expansions. The effect is driven by a reduction in disease-related deaths and grows over time. A variety of alternative specifications, methods of inference, placebo tests, and sample definitions confirm our main result.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Sarah Miller","Norman F. Johnson","Laura Wherry"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-04265ea091d15f21","title":"Growth and inequality in public good provision","abstract":"In a novel experimental design, we study public good games with dynamic interdependencies, where each \\nagent’s wealth at the end of period t serves as her endowment in t+ 1. In this setting, growth and inequality \\narise endogenously allowing us to address new questions regarding their interplay and effect on cooperation. We find that amounts contributed are increasing over time even in the absence of punishment \\npossibilities. Variation in wealth is substantial with the richest groups earning more than ten times what the \\npoorest groups earn. Introducing the possibility of punishment does not increase wealth and in some cases \\neven decreases it. In the presence of a punishment option, inequality in early periods is strongly negatively \\ncorrelated with group income in later periods, highlighting negative interaction effects between endogenous \\ninequality and punishment. \\n","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Simon Gächter","Friederike Mengel","Elias Tsakas","Alexander Vostroknutov"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-042cfcfaf90705de","title":"Time to care? The effects of retirement on informal care provision","abstract":"This paper analyzes the impact of women's retirement on their informal care provision. Using SOEP data, we address fundamental endogeneity problems by exploiting variation in the German pension system in two complementary ways. We find a significant effect of retirement on informal care provision, when using early retirement age thresholds as instruments. Heterogeneity analyses confirm the underlying behavioral mechanism, a time conflict between labor supply and informal care. We further exploit a sizable increase in the early retirement age for German women and find that affected women provide less non-intensive care. High intensity care is not impacted, which leads to a double burden and potentially negative health effects for caregivers. Exploiting the policy reform, we find evidence supporting the notion that formal care is no substitute for informal care. This implies that less overall care is received, which can be damaging to the health of the recipients of care.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Björn Fischer","Kai‐Uwe Müller"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102350","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0444c83f5be3096c","title":"SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence","abstract":"This paper exploits a policy change in Illinois that altered monthly nutritional assistance benefits dates to estimate the impact of in‐kind benefit receipt on domestic violence. We find that issuing SNAP benefits on days other than the first of the month increases domestic crimes. On average, we find the shifting benefit dates increases domestic abuse by 6.9 percent and child maltreatment by 30.0 percent. We posit that these effects are driven by increases in opportunities for conflict or changes in drug use.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jillian B. Carr","Analisa Packham"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22235","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-04509a84d4ed4ac0","title":"Judicial Politics and Sentencing Decisions","abstract":"This paper investigates whether judge political affiliation contributes to racial and gender disparities in sentencing using data on over 500,000 federal defendants linked to sentencing judge. Exploiting random case assignment, we find that Republican-appointed judges sentence black defendants to 3.0 more months than similar nonblacks and female defendants to 2.0 fewer months than similar males compared to Democratic-appointed judges, 65 percent of the baseline racial sentence gap and 17 percent of the baseline gender sentence gap, respectively. These differences cannot be explained by other judge characteristics and grow substantially larger when judges are granted more discretion.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Alma Cohen","Crystal Yang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170329","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-046295869aa18036","title":"Health, human capital formation and knowledge production: Two centuries of international evidence","abstract":"Recent medical research shows that health is highly influential on learning and the ability to think laterally; however, past economic studies have failed to empirically examine the influence of health on learning, schooling, and ideas production, the main drivers of growth in endogenous growth models. This paper constructs a measure of health-adjusted educational attainment among the working age population based on their health status during the time they obtained their education. Using annual data for 21 OECD countries over the past two centuries, it is shown that health has been highly influential on the quantity and quality of schooling, innovation, and growth.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Jakob B. Madsen"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000650","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0480104f2c443398","title":"Review: Time Use as an Explanation for the Agri-Nutrition Disconnect: Evidence from Rural Areas in Low and Middle-Income Countries","abstract":"Time is a vital input into nutritional outcomes, as it is necessary for the production, procurement and preparation of food, child feeding and childcare. Thus, agricultural interventions may fail to improve nutritional outcomes if they do not take account of time constraints, particularly of rural women who spend a considerable portion of their time in agriculture. Given the potential trade-offs pertaining to time in productive vs. reproductive activities and its implications for maternal and child nutrition, the goal of this review is to systematically map and assess the available evidence, both qualitative and quantitative studies, agriculture-time use-nutrition pathway. Through an analysis of 89 studies, identified through a systematic search, on rural areas of low and middle-income countries, we observe three findings. First, women play a key role in agriculture, as reflected in their time commitments. Second, evidence from a very limited set of studies suggests that agricultural interventions tend to increase time commitments in agriculture of the household members for whom impact is measured. Third, while changing time use tends to change nutritional outcomes, it does so in a range of complex ways and there is no agreement on the impact. Nutritional impacts are varied because households and household members respond to increased time burden and workload in different ways.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Deborah Johnston","Sara Stevano","Hazel Malapit","Elizabeth Hull","Suneetha Kadiyala"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.12.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0486ed2d50573ae4","title":"Investment preferences and risk perception: Financial agents versus clients","abstract":"We study four fundamental components of financial agency settings: The perception of commonly used investment profile terminology, agents’ customization of portfolios to clients’ preferences, the effect of agents’ and clients’ preferences on investment levels, and the role of compensation schemes. We observe large heterogeneity in the perception of investment profiles, resulting in substantial miscommunication between clients and agents. Financial agents show a high willingness to implement their clients’ preferred investment profiles, yet appear to fail because of deviating perceptions. Agents’ own investment preferences matter, but take a back seat to clients’ preferences in determining investment shares. Different monetary incentive schemes hardly affect behavior. Our results suggest that moral constraints can limit agents’ discretion in the agency situation.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Luisa Kling","Christian König-Kersting","Stefan T. Trautmann"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106489","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0488eaed3a525848","title":"Auction design without quasilinear preferences","abstract":"I study the canonical private value auction model for a single good without the quasilinearity restriction. I assume only that bidders are risk averse and the indivisible good for sale is a normal good. I show that removing quasilinearity leads to qualitatively different solutions to the auction design problem. Expected revenue is no longer maximized using standard auctions that allocate the good to the highest bidder. Instead, the auctioneer better exploits bidder preferences by using a mechanism that allocates the good to one of many different bidders, each with strictly positive probability. I introduce a probability demand mechanism that treats probabilities of winning the indivisible good like a divisible good in net supply 1. With enough bidders, it has greater expected revenues than any standard auction, and under complete information, it implements a Pareto efficient allocation.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Brian Baisa"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1951","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-0490fe05124db679","title":"Communication Costs and the Internal Organisation of Multi-Plant Businesses: Evidence From the Impact of the French High-Speed Rail","abstract":"We take advantage of the expansion of the French High‐speed Rail to study the impact of decreases in communication costs in the form of lower travel times between headquarters and affiliated plants of corporate groups. We show that such shocks foster the functional specialisation of remote affiliates on their production activities. Support activities shrink because of the transfer of high‐skilled managers to headquarters. These organisational rationalisations have a significant but small impact on overall profit. Our results hold across all industries but are strongest in services where the information to be transmitted across sites is arguably softer.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Pauline Charnoz","Claire Lelarge","Corentin Trevien"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12592","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-04c0c678764c5e14","title":"Subjective Cash Flow and Discount Rate Expectations","abstract":"Why do stock prices vary? Using survey forecasts, we find that cash flow growth expectations explain most movements in the S&P 500 price‐dividend and price‐earnings ratios, accounting for at least 93% and 63% of their variation. These expectations comove strongly with price ratios, even when price ratios do not predict future cash flow growth. In comparison, return expectations have low volatility and small comovement with price ratios. Short‐term, rather than long‐term, expectations account for most price ratio variation. We propose an asset pricing model with beliefs about earnings growth reversal that accurately replicates these cash flow growth expectations and dynamics.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Ricardo De la O","Sean Myers"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-04c3327cf1530740","title":"Narrative Economics","abstract":"This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned toward narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives “go viral” and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. The 1920–1921 Depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the so-called Great Recession of 2007–2009, and the contentious political-economic situation of today are considered as the results of the popular narratives of their respective times. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future.","wordCount":125,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Robert J. Shiller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.107.4.967","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-04cff30216653bef","title":"Local Competition, Multimarket Contact, and Product Quality: Evidence From Internet Service Provision","abstract":"I investigate the effect of competition on quality in the internet service provision industry: I examine both local competition within markets and multimarket contact among firms across markets. This industry offers an ideal setting, as quality is both objective and measurable. I use data from speedtest.net from 2008 to 2014 to estimate a reduced-form model of the effects of local competition and multimarket contact on realized consumer download speeds. I find that increased multimarket contact leads to decreased download speeds, which is consistent with the mutual forbearance hypothesis. I also find that duopolies lead to faster download speeds than do monopolies, but that further increases in the number of competitors decrease speeds.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Kyle Wilson"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09928-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-04f9a475e505108d","title":"Field of Study, Earnings, and Self-Selection","abstract":"This article examines the labor market payoffs to different types of postsecondary education, including field and institution of study. Instrumental variables (IV) estimation of the payoff to choosing one type of education compared to another is made particularly challenging by individuals choosing between several types of education. Not only does identification require one instrument per alternative, but it is also necessary to deal with the issue that individuals who choose the same education may have different next-best alternatives. We address these difficulties using rich administrative data for Norway’s postsecondary education system. A centralized admission process creates credible instruments from discontinuities that effectively randomize applicants near unpredictable admission cutoffs into different institutions and fields of study. The admission process also provides information on preferred and next-best alternatives from strategy-proof measures of individuals’ ranking of institutions and fields. The results from our IV approach may be summarized with three broad conclusions. First, different fields of study have substantially different labor market payoffs, even after accounting for institution and peer quality. Second, the effect on earnings from attending a more selective institution tends to be relatively small compared to payoffs to field of study. Third, the estimated payoffs to field of study are consistent with individuals choosing fields in which they have a comparative advantage. Comparing our estimates to those obtained from other approaches highlights the importance of using instruments to correct for selection bias and information on individuals’ ranking of institutions and fields to measure their preferred and next-best alternatives.","wordCount":248,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Lars J. Kirkebøen","Edwin Leuven","Magne Mogstad"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-04fa771d96f9602b","title":"Smart subsidies for sustainable soils: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in southern Malawi","abstract":"Conventional agricultural practices – especially conventional tillage – are a major driver of soil erosion globally. While soil may not frequently considered a vulnerable natural resource, the erosion and degradation of soils poses a serious threat to food production and the production of numerous otherin situ andex situ ecosystem services. This study provides some of the first evidence on the effectiveness of a payments for ecosystem services (PES) program to encourage the adoption of soil conservation practices, specifically conservation agriculture (CA). Through minimized soil disturbance, permanent soil cover, and diversified crop mix, CA is believed to enhance soil fertility and rehabilitate soil structure, with the resulting preservation of ecosystem service flows. By providing calibrated financial incentives, we demonstrate that it is possible to substantially increase the extent and intensity of CA adoption. What is more, we show that a novel incentive mechanisms that leverages social networks for the consolidation of fragmented land may be more effective at bringing more land under conservation objectives, even if some of the additional land does not officially fall under the purview of the PES program. We also demonstrate that some of the supposed weaknesses hindering the adoption of CA – lower yields in the short-run and higher expenditures on weed control – were not necessarily obstacles in our study area, perhaps suggesting that the provision of subsidies need not continue into perpetuity, but may only be needed to overcome short-term transition costs.","wordCount":238,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Patrick S. Ward","Lawrence Mapemba","Andrew Reid Bell"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102556","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0506ec9bfacfb81c","title":"Utilitarian or deontological models of moral behavior—What predicts morally questionable decisions?","abstract":"The distinction between consequentialism and deontologism is fundamental for moral philosophy and has also attracted attention in the economic analysis of moral decisions. We consider voting games where people can earn money by taking morally questionable decisions. Our predictions are taken from a simple behavioral game-theoretic model and depend on the underlying moral preferences. For both kinds of moral theories, we consider a strict and a moderate version. Moral absolutism prohibits certain behavior under any circumstances. Moderate deontologists face internal moral costs whenever they violate a norm but take trade-offs with consequences into account. Strict consequentialists care only about consequences. Moderate consequentialists face moral costs from violating a norm if and only if their violation yields negative consequences for others. We test our predictions experimentally for lying on the outcome of a lottery and taking money designated for donation. Our data support moderate deontologism for lying and moderate consequentialism for donation. We attribute this to telling the truth being a duty which, if violated, always leads to moral costs, while voting for taking the money yields moral costs if and only if people actually get it.","wordCount":186,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Eberhard Feess","Florian Kerzenmacher","Yuriy Timofeyev"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104264","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-050a369ce604ed30","title":"Can External Threats Foster a European Union Identity? Evidence from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine","abstract":"Can external threats strengthen group identity? A growing body of research in economics emphasises the importance of cultural attributes such as identity for trust and cooperation. However, where these attributes come from is not well understood. This paper examines reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, looking at European Union member states. Comparing low-threat to high-threat states in a difference-in-differences design, I find a sizeable and persistent positive effect on EU identity. It is associated with higher trust in EU institutions and support for common policies. Lower-level identities remain unaffected, and proximity to Russia and Russian minority size are driving high-threat status.","wordCount":104,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Kai Gehring"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab088","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-05157d6d871ae3e1","title":"A Contribution to the Empirics of Reservation Wages","abstract":"This paper provides evidence on the behavior of reservation wages over the spell of unemployment, using high-frequency longitudinal data on unemployed workers in New Jersey. In comparison to a calibrated job search model, the reservation wage starts out too high and declines too slowly, on average, suggesting that many workers persistently misjudge their prospects or anchor their reservation wage on their previous wage. The longitudinal nature of the data also allows for testing the relationship between job acceptance and the reservation wage, where the reservation wage is measured from a previous interview to avoid bias due to cognitive dissonance.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Alan B. Krueger","Andreas Mueller"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140211","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-05228ab7b906daaf","title":"Development of the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)","abstract":"With growing commitment to women's empowerment by agricultural development agencies, sound methods and indicators to measure women's empowerment are needed to learn which types of projects or project-implementation strategies do and do not work to empower women. The Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI), which has been widely used, requires adaptation to meet the need for monitoring projects and assessing their impacts. In this paper, the authors describe the adaptation and validation of a project-level WEAI (or pro-WEAI) that agricultural development projects can use to identify key areas of women's (and men's) disempowerment, design appropriate strategies to address identified deficiencies, and monitor project outcomes related to women's empowerment. The 12 pro-WEAI indicators are mapped to three domains: intrinsic agency (power within), instrumental agency (power to), and collective agency (power with). A gender parity index compares the empowerment scores of men and women in the same household. The authors describe the development of pro-WEAI, including: (1) pro-WEAI's distinctiveness from other versions of the WEAI; (2) the process of piloting pro-WEAI in 13 agricultural development projects during the Gender, Agriculture, and Assets Project, phase 2 (GAAP2); (3) analysis of quantitative data from the GAAP2 projects, including intrahousehold patterns of empowerment/disempowerment; and (4) a summary of the findings from the qualitative work exploring concepts of women's empowerment in the project sites. The paper concludes with a discussion of lessons learned from pro-WEAI and possibilities for further development of empowerment metrics.","wordCount":237,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Hazel Malapit","Agnes Quisumbing","Ruth Meinzen‐Dick","Greg Seymour","Elena Martínez","Jessica Heckert","Deborah Rubin","Ana Rita Vaz","Kathryn M. Yount"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.06.018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-052538177b72a65c","title":"Attracting Early‐Stage Investors: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment","abstract":"This paper uses a randomized field experiment to identify which start‐up characteristics are most important to investors in early‐stage firms. The experiment randomizes investors’ information sets of fund‐raising start‐ups. The average investor responds strongly to information about the founding team, but not to firm traction or existing lead investors. We provide evidence that the team is not merely a signal of quality, and that investing based on team information is a rational strategy. Together, our results indicate that information about human assets is causally important for the funding of early‐stage firms and hence for entrepreneurial success.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Shai Bernstein","Arthur G. Korteweg","Kevin Laws"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12470","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-052ba0fbca4d4762","title":"Is deflation cause for panic? Evidence from the National Banking era","abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between deflation, real output, and bank panics in the United States during the National Banking era from 1868 to 1913, a period marked by frequent deflationary episodes and many bank panics. Using a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions, I distinguish between deflation as part of negative aggregate demand shocks and deflation as part of positive aggregate supply shocks. My findings indicate that negative aggregate demand shocks are associated with an increased likelihood of bank panics, while positive aggregate supply shocks are not. I then bolster these findings with case studies of the major bank panics of 1873, 1893, and 1907, analyzing stock data, bank clearing data, and narrative evidence. Combined, these results suggest that unexpected declines in nominal income, rather than deflation itself, contribute to financial stress, aligning with recent theoretical work.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Casey Pender"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103641","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-05425eb8d6cb2a3a","title":"Gimme a break! Identification and estimation of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks in the united states","abstract":"We employ a non-recursive identification scheme to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for the US post-WWII quarterly data. The identification of the shock is achieved via heteroskedasticity, and different on-impact macroeconomic responses are allowed for (but not imposed) in each volatility regime. We show that the impulse responses obtained with the suggested non-recursive identification scheme are quite similar to those conditional on a recursive VAR estimated with pre-1984 data. In contrast, recursive vs. non-recursive identification schemes return different short-run responses of output and investment during the Great Moderation. Robustness checks dealing with a different definition of investment, an alternative break-point, and federal funds futures rates as an indicator of the monetary policy stance are documented and discussed.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Emanuele Bacchiocchi","Efrem Castelnuovo","Luca Fanelli"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000833","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-054686967c0caa8b","title":"Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries","abstract":"We compute a sunspot equilibrium in an estimated small-scale New Keynesian model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates and a full set of stochastic fundamental shocks. In this equilibrium, a sunspot shock can move the economy from a regime in which inflation is close to the central bank’s target to a regime in which the central bank misses its target, inflation rates are negative, and interest rates are close to zero with high probability. A non-linear filter is used to examine whether the U.S. in the aftermath of the Great Recession and Japan in the late 1990s transitioned to a deflation regime. The results are somewhat sensitive to the model specification, but on balance, the answer is affirmative for Japan and negative for the U.S.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["S. Borağan Aruoba","Pablo Cuba‐Borda","Frank Schorfheide"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0559a0fe3d2425a9","title":"Revisiting the economic valuation of agricultural losses due to large-scale changes in pollinator populations","abstract":"We discuss comparative static partial equilibrium approaches for large-scale monetary valuations of animal-mediated crop pollination. These approaches rely upon reported crop production values, own-price elasticities of demand and experimentally found dependence ratios that express crop-specific yield shares due to pollinators. We dismiss the established long-term approach given the difficulty of anticipating the adaptation of the bioeconomic system to changes of pollinator abundance. Instead, we suggest another more parsimonious method, which assesses the short-term welfare effects following a sudden change in pollinator abundance. Using 2016-2018 data on agricultural production, we estimate the worldwide welfare effects due to a pollinator collapse for a range of plausible own-price elasticities, both from short-term and long-term perspectives. For the former we also simulate a global recovery scenario. Depending on the overall price elasticity assumed, the short-term effects of a total pollinator loss lie between 1 and 2 % of global GDP. We also apply the different valuation approaches to more detailed German 2006-2016 crop production data, where we account for crop-specific demand. As the reported dependence ratios vary in wide ranges, we rely upon stochastic simulations to obtain likely distributions of the German welfare effects.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Christian Lippert","Arndt Feuerbacher","Manuel Narjes"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106860","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-055a4d8f0f075108","title":"Bounded rationality and limited data sets","abstract":"Bounded rationality theories are typically characterized over exhaustive data sets. We develop a methodology to understand the empirical content of such theories with limited data, adapting the classic revealed‐preference approach to new forms of revealed information. We apply our approach to an array of theories, illustrating its versatility. We identify theories and data sets testable in the same elegant way as rationality, and theories and data sets where testing is more challenging. We show that previous attempts to test consistency of limited data with bounded rationality theories are subject to a conceptual pitfall that may lead to false conclusions that the data are consistent with the theory.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Geoffroy de Clippel","Kareen Rozen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4070","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-055d3abf9d12ee5e","title":"Every Little Bit Counts: The Impact of High-Speed Internet on the Transition to College","abstract":"This paper examines whether high-speed Internet affects students' college applications. Our analysis links the diffusion of residential broadband to the testing and application outcomes of millions of PSAT and SAT takers and reveals that students with broadband in their postal code perform better on the SAT and apply to a higher number and more expansive set of colleges. While the availability of broadband generally improved applications to college, the effects appear to be concentrated among high-SES students, suggesting that the new technology may have increased preexisting inequities.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Lisa Dettling","Sarena Goodman","Jonathan Smith"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00712","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-057e72ae4fbce39c","title":"Eliciting and Utilizing Willingness to Pay: Evidence from Field Trials in Northern Ghana","abstract":"We use the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for and heterogeneous impacts of clean water technology through a field experiment in Ghana. Although WTP is low relative to cost, demand is inelastic at low prices. Short-run treatment effects are positive throughout the WTP distribution. After 1 year, use and benefits are both increasing in WTP, with negative effects on low-WTP households. Combining estimated treatment effects with households’ WTP implies valuations of health benefits much smaller than typically used by policy makers. We explore differences between BDM and take-it-or-leave-it valuations and make recommendations for implementing BDM in the field.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["James Berry","Greg Fischer","Raymond Guiteras"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705374","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-05ab1ed0b602209b","title":"An introduction to the history of infectious diseases, epidemics and the early phases of the long‐run decline in mortality","abstract":"This article, written during the COVID-19 epidemic, provides a general introduction to the long-term history of infectious diseases, epidemics and the early phases of the spectacular long-term improvements in life expectancy since 1750, primarily with reference to English history. The story is a fundamentally optimistic one. In 2019 global life expectancy was approaching 73 years. In 1800 it was probably about 30. To understand the origins of this transition, we have to look at the historical sequence by which so many causes of premature death have been vanquished over time. In England that story begins much earlier than often supposed, in the years around 1600. The first two 'victories' were over famine and plague. However, economic changes with negative influences on mortality meant that, despite this, life expectancies were either falling or stable between the late sixteenth and mid eighteenth centuries. The late eighteenth and early nineteenth century saw major declines in deaths from smallpox, malaria and typhus and the beginnings of the long-run increases in life expectancy. The period also saw urban areas become capable of demographic growth without a constant stream of migrants from the countryside: a necessary precondition for the global urbanization of the last two centuries and for modern economic growth. Since 1840 the highest national life expectancy globally has increased by three years in every decade.","wordCount":221,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Leigh Shaw‐Taylor"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-05bd3c7a07960b59","title":"Cities and productivity: Evidence from 16 Latin American and Caribbean countries","abstract":"This paper explores the roles of agglomeration economies and human capital externalities in accounting for productivity variations across sub-national areas in 16 Latin American and Caribbean countries. We estimate positive elasticities of productivity with respect to density. While heterogeneity exists across countries, the estimated agglomeration elasticities for the region are comparable to those estimated in the literature for high-income countries. Including human capital measures reduces the estimated agglomeration elasticities for several countries in our sample. We also find that human capital externalities play a stronger role in explaining spatial productivity differentials than agglomeration economies in the region. By providing comparable estimates of the strength of agglomeration economies and human capital externalities for many non-high-income countries, the paper considerably expands knowledge on the determinants of urban productivity.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Luis Quintero","Mark Roberts"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103573","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-05c7935f935b09f8","title":"On the Rise of FinTechs: Credit Scoring Using Digital Footprints","abstract":"We analyze the information content of a digital footprint—that is, information that users leave online simply by accessing or registering on a Web site—for predicting consumer default. We show that even simple, easily accessible variables from a digital footprint match the information content of credit bureau scores. A digital footprint complements rather than substitutes for credit bureau information and affects access to credit and reduces default rates. We discuss the implications for financial intermediaries’ business models, access to credit for the unbanked, and the behavior of consumers, firms, and regulators in the digital sphere.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Tobias Berg","Valentin Burg","Ana Gombović","Manju Puri"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz099","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-05f8cba58ffe8819","title":"Unemployment and Business Cycles","abstract":"We develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, we do not impose wage inertia. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages. Our model outperforms a variant of the standard New Keynesian Calvo sticky wage model. According to our estimated model, there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness, monetary policy, and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Lawrence J. Christiano","Martin Eichenbaum","Mathias Trabandt"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11776","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0600349bddc88861","title":"The Political Economy of Liberal Democracy","abstract":"This paper develops a taxonomy of political regimes that distinguishes between three sets of rights—property rights, political rights and civil rights. The truly distinctive nature of liberal democracy is the protection of civil rights (equal treatment by the state for all groups) in addition to the other two. The paper shows how democratic transitions that are the product of a settlement between the elite (who care mostly about property rights) and the majority (who care about political rights), generically fail to produce liberal democracy. Instead, the emergence of liberal democracy requires low levels of inequality and weak identity cleavages.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Sharun Mukand","Dani Rodrik"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0614d1cf8d8df731","title":"Household Shocks and Education Investments in Madagascar","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of exogenous shocks to household income, assets and labour supply on children's school attendance in Madagascar. The analysis uses a unique data set with 10 years of recall data on school attendance and household shocks. We find that the probability of a child dropping out of school increases significantly when the household experiences an illness, death or asset shock. We propose a test to distinguish whether the impact of shocks on school attendance can be attributed to credit constraints, labour market rigidities, or a combination of the two. The results suggest that credit constraints, rather than labour market rigidities, explain the inability of households in Madagascar to keep their children in school during times of economic stress.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Peter Glick","David E. Sahn","Thomas F. Walker"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12129","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0617cd2afddb7b77","title":"Retirement and cognitive decline. A longitudinal analysis using SHARE data","abstract":"We show that a new measure of cognitive decline, that can be computed in longitudinal surveys where respondents perform the same recall memory tests over the years, is highly predictive of the onset of dementia. Using SHARE data, we investigate the way retirement affects cognitive decline over time controlling for age, education and other confounding factors. We find that retirement has a long-term detrimental effect on cognition for individuals who retire at the statutory eligibility age. It plays instead a protective role for those who retire on an early retirement scheme.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Martina Celidoni","Chiara Dal Bianco","Guglielmo Weber"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-061cbd1a7107df1e","title":"Platform Design When Sellers Use Pricing Algorithms","abstract":"We investigate the ability of a platform to design its marketplace to promote competition, improve consumer surplus, and increase its own payoff. We consider demand‐steering rules that reward firms that cut prices with additional exposure to consumers. We examine the impact of these rules both in theory and by using simulations with artificial intelligence pricing algorithms (specifically Q‐learning algorithms, which are commonly used in computer science). Our theoretical results indicate that these policies (which require little information to implement) can have strongly beneficial effects, even when sellers are infinitely patient and seek to collude. Similarly, our simulations suggest that platform design can benefit consumers and the platform, but that achieving these gains may require policies that condition on past behavior and treat sellers in a nonneutral fashion. These more sophisticated policies disrupt the ability of algorithms to rotate demand and split industry profits, leading to low prices.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Justin P. Johnson","Andrew Rhodes","Matthijs R. Wildenbeest"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta19978","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-061f0b3752c886b2","title":"Measuring competition in spatial retail","abstract":"We propose and estimate a spatially aggregated discrete‐choice model with overlapping consumer choice sets and demographic‐driven heterogeneity that varies by chain. Our approach avoids the need to define markets ex ante and captures rich substitution patterns, even in the absence of price data. An application to the US grocery industry illustrates the importance of location, format, and the spatial distribution of consumers in shaping the competitive environment. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find substantial cross‐format competition between supercenters, clubs, and traditional grocers. Finally, we evaluate two representative mergers between supermarket chains to demonstrate how our estimates inform antitrust policy.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Paul B. Ellickson","Paul L.E. Grieco","Oleksii Khvastunov"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12310","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-06215e0ef088ddf3","title":"A Study of Umbrella Damages from Bid Rigging","abstract":"If noncartel firms adjust their pricing to the supracompetitive level sustained by a cartel, purchasers from noncartel firms may suffer umbrella damages. This paper examines the bidding behavior of noncartel firms against the Texas school milk cartel between 1980 and 1992. The largest noncartel firm bid less aggressively when facing the cartel. Structural estimation reveals that, per contract, damages due to noncartel firms bidding higher are at least 35 percent of damages caused by the cartel. Inefficiencies raise the winner’s cost by 5.9 percent. These results shed light on the importance of umbrella damages from a civil liability perspective.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["El Hadi Caoui"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717755","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0622d75bdf3821aa","title":"The Gender Wealth Gap Across European Countries","abstract":"This paper studies the gap in wealth between male and female single households using 2010 Household Finance and Consumption Survey data for eight European countries. In the raw data, a large gap emerges at the upper end of the unconditional distribution. While OLS estimates show no difference in average net wealth levels, quantile regressions at the 95th percentile yield mixed evidence for the gender wealth gap in different specifications. Labour market characteristics and participation in asset and debt categories largely explain the differences between male and female single households. The gender gap in net wealth is driven by gaps in gross wealth and its components, but is attenuated in four countries by gender gaps in (collateralized) debt. In the full specification, the unexplained gap in gross wealth amounts to 27 percent in Slovakia, 33 percent in France, 44 percent in Austria, 45 percent in Germany, and 48 percent in Greece.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Alyssa Schneebaum","Miriam Rehm","Katharina Mader","Katarina Hollan"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12281","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-0622eff11fc91962","title":"A new dawn for MENA firms: service trade liberalization for more competitive exports","abstract":"While micro-level empirical evidence has emerged to highlight the positive effect of services deregulation on the productivity and exports of manufacturing firms in developing countries, the MENA region has been neglected in the literature. The current paper fills the gap by exploring the effect of service protection on the extensive and intensive trade margins of manufacturing and services firms in selected MENA countries for 2013. The service protection variable is constructed using two different measures: the service trade restrictiveness index and the tariff equivalent of services, weighted by the input-output technical coefficient of service sectors. Our results show that service protection is a fixed export cost, exerting a negative and significant effect on the extensive margin, without having a significant effect on the intensive margin of the firm. We also find that the burden of service barriers falls on small firms that struggle to enter international markets, and on firms operating in high value-added sectors such as ‘motor vehicles’.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Fida Karam","Chahir Zaki"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1624921","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-06309549c1296400","title":"Financial access and women's role in household decisions: Empirical evidence from India's National Rural Livelihoods project","abstract":"Government programs supporting self help groups (SHGs) generally target women on the assumption that doing so enhances women's decision-making. The empirical evidence, however, is mixed. We advance and test one explanation: the loan amounts offered by most SHGs may be too small to impact women. Our analysis is based on SHGs developed under India's National Rural Livelihoods Mission, a program that supported both small loans from internal savings and larger loans through Community Investment Funds (CIFs). Exploiting variation in their phasing and amount, we document a large effect of CIFs on women's decision-making and on intra-household allocations.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Anjini Kochar","Closepet Nagabhushana","Ritwik Sarkar","Rohan Shah","Geeta Singh"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102821","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0647e962bb105a6b","title":"Value creation in shareholder activism","abstract":"We measure value creation by activist investors via structural estimation of a model of the choice between passive investment and activism. Our estimates imply that average returns following activist intent announcements consist of 74.8% expected value creation, or treatment, 13.4% stock picking, and 11.8% sample selection effects. Higher treatment values predict improvements in firm performance and lower proxy contest probabilities, whereas abnormal announcements returns do not, suggesting that our estimate identifies more effective activism campaigns. The evidence demonstrates the importance of using the joint distribution of investment strategies and announcement returns to recover the expected returns and costs of activism.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Rui Albuquerque","Vyacheslav Fos","Enrique Schroth"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.09.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-065ae75f54551854","title":"Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo","abstract":"The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the balance sheets and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the balance sheet accounts for the calculation of the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry. The paper uses a variant of the builder's model that has been used to construct Residential Property Price Indexes. Geometric depreciation rates are estimated for commercial offices in Tokyo using assessment data for REIT. The problems associated with the decomposition of property value into land and structure components are addressed. The problems associated with depreciating capital expenditures on buildings and with measuring the loss of asset value due to early retirement of the structure are also addressed.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Erwin Diewert","Chihiro Shimizu"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12229","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-066312756ede345e","title":"Market power in wholesale funding: A structural perspective from the triparty repo market","abstract":"I model and structurally estimate the equilibrium rates and volume in the Triparty repo market to study imperfect competition in wholesale funding. Even in this systemically important market, where seemingly homogeneous repos trade, I document persistent rate differences paid by dealers. I characterize the Triparty market as cash-lenders allocating their portfolios among differentiated dealers who set repo rates. I find that cash-lenders’ aversion to portfolio concentration and preference for stable lending [grant] substantial market power: between 2011 and 2017, dealers borrowed at rates that were 26 bps lower than their marginal value from intermediating the borrowed repo funds. Dealers’ market power makes the observed wholesale repo rate understate the financing rate available to market participants who rely on repo funding, and offers a novel explanation for funding spreads such as the Treasury cash-futures basis and the Treasury swap spread.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Amy Wang Huber"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-066694b94e8a4839","title":"A Transactions Cost Analysis of the Welfare and Output Effects of Rebates and Non-Linear Pricing","abstract":"Ronald Coase famously exposed the limitations of economic analyses that rely upon assumptions of frictionless markets. He highlighted the importance of including transaction costs in economic analyses and issued a challenge to economists to think seriously about how transaction costs affect economic systems. Harold Demsetz, extended Coase’s analysis to show how these costs alter the way firms price and market their products. Demsetz’s analysis underscored that the costs of providing a market sometimes exceed the benefits of creating one in the first place and examined conditions where transaction costs imply that zero amounts of explicit market pricing will be efficient. This article extends Demsetz’s insights with respect to non-linear pricing contracts that seem not to “price” key side effects of the economic exchange. In particular, we analyze the welfare and output effects of two examples of such contracts that are commonly used by firms that are frequently subject to antitrust scrutiny: metered pricing; and loyalty discounts. The analysis demonstrates how a firm’s choice to set prices for its products are influenced by transaction and information costs and examines whether changes in output that are caused by the use of these non-linear pricing schemes are positively correlated with changes in total and consumer welfare. The article then discusses conditions under which measuring output effects can reliably differentiate between welfare-increasing and welfare-reducing uses of non-linear pricing.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Bruce H. Kobayashi","Joshua D. Wright"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09992-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-066ba0f6e69226a3","title":"Bridging the gap: Assessing the effects of railway infrastructure investments in Northwest China","abstract":"This paper investigates the economic effects of the opening of the only high-speed rail (HSR) line in northwest China, which connects the northwestern provinces along the Silk Road land route. Northwest China faces two major geographical challenges for economic development: its landlocked location and rugged terrain. To assess the impact of the HSR line on economic activity in counties along this Silk Road land route, we utilise a recently developed machine-learning extended nightlight dataset spanning from 2000 to 2019. For this analysis, we employ the ridge augmented synthetic control method (Ben-Michael et al., 2021). Additionally, we propose an algorithm that automates the donor pool selection process while ensuring optimal pre-treatment comparability. Our findings demonstrate that the opening of the Lanzhou-Xinjiang HSR line resulted in both winners and losers. While there are indications that HSR contributes to progress towards breaking through the Hu Huanyong Line, a geographical demarcation in China that is of vast economic significance, not all counties benefited from the opening of the HSR line.","wordCount":166,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Lamont Bo Yu","Trang My Tran","Wang-Sheng Lee"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.102076","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-066fb5c488f55bcc","title":"Can Social–Emotional Learning Reduce School Dropout in Developing Countries?","abstract":"An alarming number of students drop out of junior high school in developing countries. In this study, we examine the impacts of providing a social–emotional learning (SEL) program on the dropout behavior and learning anxiety of students in the first two years of junior high. We do so by analyzing data from a randomized controlled trial involving 70 junior high schools and 7,495 students in rural China. After eight months, the SEL program reduces dropout by 1.6 percentage points and decreases learning anxiety by 2.3 percentage points. Effects are no longer statistically different from zero after 15 months, perhaps due to decreasing student interest in the program. However, we do find that the program reduces dropout among students at high risk of dropping out (older students and students with friends who have already dropped out), both after eight and 15 months of exposure to the SEL program.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Huan Wang","James Chu","Prashant Loyalka","Xin Tao","Yaojiang Shi","Qinghe Qu","Chu Yang"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21915","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0675d6a30f6c2618","title":"The cost of a divided America: an experimental study into destructive behavior","abstract":"Does political polarization lead to dysfunctional behavior? To study this question, we investigate the attitudes of supporters of Donald Trump and of Hillary Clinton towards each other and how these attitudes affect spiteful behavior. We find that both Trump and Clinton supporters display less positive attitudes towards the opposing supporters compared to coinciding supporters. More importantly, we show that significantly more wealth is destroyed if the opponent is an opposing voter. This effect is mainly driven by Clinton voters. This provides the first experimental evidence that political polarization leads to destructive behavior.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Wladislaw Mill","John Morgan"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09737-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0686d8a3165539c1","title":"Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?","abstract":"Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9–10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Ján Palguta","René Levı́nský","Samuel Škoda"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0690daa040ea7320","title":"Wildfires and climate change have lowered the economic value of western U.S. forests by altering risk expectations","abstract":"There is a lack of evidence regarding how natural resource markets have responded to recent increases in climate-induced extreme events like wildfire. Wildfire can affect the economic value of forests by directly damaging the existing tree stock and by altering landowner risk expectations of future wildfire arrival. This paper uses parcel data over a seventeen-year period to estimate the effects of large wildfires and drought stress on market prices for private timberland across the three Pacific states of the western U.S. In addition to estimating the land price impacts of wildfires on parcels that were directly burned, we identify changes in risk expectations by estimating the impacts from wildfires that burned in close proximity rather than directly on timberland that was sold in the land market. Results indicate that recent increases in large wildfires and drought stress over the past two decades have lowered the economic value of timberland by approximately 10%, or about $11.2 billion in damages across the three Pacific states, with approximately 5.5% (∼$6.2 billion) due to climate change. Most of the wildfire damages arise from changes in risk expectations. Results provide evidence on the costs of climate-induced extreme events on natural capital that have already occurred.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Yuhan Wang","David J. Lewis"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102894","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-06910fc44833f65e","title":"How Destructive Is Innovation?","abstract":"Entrants and incumbents can create new products and displace the products of competitors. Incumbents can also improve their existing products. How much of aggregate productivity growth occurs through each of these channels? Using data from the U.S. Longitudinal Business Database on all nonfarm private businesses from 1983 to 2013, we arrive at three main conclusions: First, most growth appears to come from incumbents. We infer this from the modest employment share of entering firms (defined as those less than 5 years old). Second, most growth seems to occur through improvements of existing varieties rather than creation of brand new varieties. Third, own‐product improvements by incumbents appear to be more important than creative destruction. We infer this because the distribution of job creation and destruction has thinner tails than implied by a model with a dominant role for creative destruction.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Daniel Garcia-Macia","Chang‐Tai Hsieh","Peter J. Klenow"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14930","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-06a36351de3c439a","title":"Housing networks and driving forces","abstract":"This paper investigates patterns in housing market networks using Australian and Chinese data and a novel econometric approach based on pairwise time-varying Granger causality tests. The focus is on four fundamental questions. (1) Have housing markets become increasingly connected over time? (2) Does housing market connectivity increase or decrease with house prices? (3) Are socio-economic and geographic proximity important for housing market connections? (4) Do economic fundamentals or sentiment drive connectivity? The results reveal interesting differences in these markets and suggest that one size is not likely to fit all in terms of housing market policy.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Stan Hurn","Shuping Shi","Ben Zhe Wang"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106318","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-06b59569969477bd","title":"Attention‐Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users","abstract":"We study the influence of financial innovation by fintech brokerages on individual investors’ trading and stock prices. Using data from Robinhood, we find that Robinhood investors engage in more attention‐induced trading than other retail investors. For example, Robinhood outages disproportionately reduce trading in high‐attention stocks. While this evidence is consistent with Robinhood attracting relatively inexperienced investors, we show that it is also driven in part by the app's unique features. Consistent with models of attention‐induced trading, intense buying by Robinhood users forecasts negative returns. Average 20‐day abnormal returns are −4.7% for the top stocks purchased each day.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Brad M. Barber","Xing Huang","Terrance Odean","Christopher G. Schwarz"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13183","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-06bc5b67ea41427b","title":"The small open economy in a generalized gravity model","abstract":"To provide sharp answers to basic questions in international trade, a standard approach is to focus on a small open economy (SOE). Whereas the classic tradition is to define a SOE as an economy that takes world prices as given, in the new trade literature it is defined instead as one that takes foreign-good prices and export demand schedules as given. We develop a gravity model that nests all its standard microfoundations and show how to take the limit so that an economy that becomes infinitesimally small behaves like a SOE. We then derive comparative statics and optimal policy for the SOE. Ignoring standard tax indeterminacies, optimal policy is characterized by export taxes and import tariffs equal to the (inverse) foreign demand and supply elasticities, respectively, and employment subsidies determined by the scale elasticity (under perfect competition) or markups (under monopolistic competition).","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Svetlana Demidova","Konstantin Kucheryavyy","Takumi Naito","Andrés Rodrı́guez-Clare"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-06ccb8fa965d7ac4","title":"Dynamic supply adjustment and banking under uncertainty in an emission trading scheme: The market stability reserve","abstract":"We study the impact of a supply management mechanism (SMM) similar to the Market Stability Reserve proposed in 2015 which preserve the overall emissions cap and we comment on the recent cap-changing amendments. We provide an analytical description of the conditions under which an SMM alters the emissions abatement paths, affecting the expected length of the banking period and its variability. While abatement strategies of risk neutral firms solely depend on the former, for risk-averse firms changes in the latter would lead to higher risk premia, accelerated depletion of the bank and, consequently, further reduction of abatement and allowance prices. Cancellation of part of the reserve could partially outweigh the effect on risk premia sustaining allowance prices.","wordCount":117,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Sascha Kollenberg","Luca Taschini"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.05.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-06d089e70a6f2fd9","title":"To cooperate or not to cooperate? An analysis of cooperation and peer punishment among Syrian refugees, Germans, and Jordanians","abstract":"Do Syrian civil war victims living in exile treat other Syrian refugees more favorably compared to members of the hosting society? We answer this question by analyzing cooperation decisions in a prisoner’s dilemma with a second stage including punishment among Syrian refugees, Germans, and Jordanians, in two host countries, Germany and Jordan. We find that Syrian refugees are more likely to cooperate when they are interacting with another refugee than when they are interacting with a German or a Jordanian participant. We find opposite results for both Germans and Jordanians who cooperate more when playing with Syrians than within their own group. Self-reported feelings of refugees suggest that in-group favoritism rather than out-group hostility drives this result, while punishment of defecting in-group and out-group members does not differ significantly for all groups. Thus, in-group favoritism seems to be a selective inclination that disappears when it clashes with other characteristics like reciprocity.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Nora El‐Bialy","Elisa Fraile Aranda","Andreas Nicklisch","Lamis Saleh","Stefan Voigt"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102484","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-06ecbfc2c67ddcbb","title":"The Effect of Own-Gender Jurors on Conviction Rates","abstract":"Despite concerns about gender bias in general and jurors’ gender in particular, little is known about the effect of jurors’ gender on conviction rates. We identify the effect of own-gender jurors by exploiting random variation in the assignment to and ordering of jury pools in two large Florida counties. Results indicate that own-gender jurors are significantly less likely to convict on drug charges, though we find no evidence of effects for other charges. Estimates indicate that adding one own-gender juror (∼1.6 standard deviations) results in a 30-percentage-point reduction in conviction rates on drug charges, which is highly significant even after adjusting for multiple comparisons. These findings highlight how drawing an opposite-gender jury can impose significant costs on defendants and demonstrate that own-gender bias can occur even in settings where the importance of being impartial is actively pressed on participants.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Mark Hoekstra","Brittany Street"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/714149","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-06faf4f10185212f","title":"Opening up in the 21st century: A quantitative accounting of Chinese export growth","abstract":"China’s rapid export growth has spurred extensive research investigating its effects on other economies. The exact causes of the boom as well as the slowdown in Chinese exporting after 2007 are less well-understood. We quantify the drivers of Chinese export growth using a general equilibrium model estimated with detailed trade and production data that capture rich heterogeneity across destinations, firm ownership types, production locations, and sectors. We find that the three key drivers of Chinese export growth overall are rising foreign demand, improvements in access to imported intermediates, and factor productivity growth within China. Weakening foreign demand and a lack of further improvements in imported inputs access largely explain the slowdown in exporting after 2007. Furthermore, important differences especially across sectors and firms of different ownership types caution against any single narrative.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Loren Brandt","Kevin Lim"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103895","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-06fe870066b58d7e","title":"Corporate flexibility in a time of crisis","abstract":"We use the COVID shock to study the direct and interactive effects of several forms of corporate flexibility on short- and long-term real business plans. We find that i) workplace flexibility, namely the ability for employees to work remotely, plays a central role in determining firms’ employment plans during the health crisis; ii) investment flexibility allows firms to increase or decrease capital spending based on their business prospects in the crisis, with effects shaped by workplace flexibility; and iii) financial flexibility contributes to stronger employment and investment, in particular when fixed costs are high. While the role of workplace flexibility is new to the COVID crisis, CFOs expect lasting effects for years to come: high workplace flexibility firms foresee continuation of remote work, stronger employment recovery, and shifting away from traditional capital investment, whereas low workplace flexibility firms rely more on automation to replace labor.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["John W. Barry","Murillo Campello","John R. Graham","Yueran Ma"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.03.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-07023eb48fcd609f","title":"The tails of firm growth, granularity, and business cycles","abstract":"Shocks are amplified only if the largest firms also have high levels of customer concentration. We document that the kurtosis of firm growth rates increases with firm size, indicating that even the largest firms are susceptible to significant, concentrated risks. To account for these cross-sectional characteristics, we develop a model where aggregate fluctuations are driven by customer concentration. We show that shocks are amplified only when large firms also have highly concentrated customer bases. This mechanism accounts for two stylized facts: the higher volatility of small firms and the heavier-tailed growth distributions of large firms. Customer concentration limits diversification and increases tail risks. Our findings suggest that understanding macroeconomic risk requires considering not just firm size, but also the concentration of their sales.","wordCount":123,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Carlos Daniel Santos"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103258","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0711f910cd8a0b17","title":"Health responses to a wealth shock: evidence from a Swedish tax reform","abstract":"This paper makes two contributions to the literature on the effects of wealth on health. First, it deals with reverse causality and omitted variable bias by exploiting exogenous variation in inherited wealth generated by the repeal of the Swedish inheritance tax. Second, it analyzes responses in health outcomes through the use of administrative registers. The results show that increased wealth has limited short to medium run impacts on objective adult health. This is in line with what has previously been reported in the literature.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Oscar Erixson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-017-0651-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-07130351483b9028","title":"Multiple Activities in Networks","abstract":"We consider a network model where individuals exert efforts in two types of activities that are interdependent. These activities can be either substitutes or complements. We provide a full characterization of the Nash equilibrium of this game for any network structure. We show, in particular, that quadratic games with linear best-reply functions aggregate nicely to multiple activities because equilibrium efforts obey similar formulas to that of the one-activity case. We then derive some comparative-statics results showing how own productivity affects equilibrium efforts and how network density impacts equilibrium outcomes.","wordCount":89,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Ying‐Ju Chen","Yves Zénou","Junjie Zhou"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160253","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0716efbc8c9ad6a4","title":"Optimal Contracts for Experimentation","abstract":"This paper studies long-term contracts for experimentation in a principal-agent setting with adverse selection about the agent’s ability (pre-contractual hidden information), dynamic moral hazard, and private learning about project quality. We show that profit maximization by the principal generally leads to under-experimentation by an agent of low ability, even though there would be no distortion in the absence of either adverse selection or moral hazard. The structure of optimal contracts is shaped by a variety of considerations including dynamic agency costs and the possibility of post-contractual hidden information about project quality. We derive two explicit menus of contracts that can be used to implement the second best solution: “bonus contracts” and “clawback contracts”. Both feature history-contingent dynamic streams of transfers.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Marina Halac","Navin Kartik","Qingmin Liu"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0723587aef1ae7a5","title":"Road to division: Ethnic favoritism and road infrastructure in Ethiopia","abstract":"This paper investigates the role of ethnic favoritism in the long run allocation of road infrastructure in Ethiopia. I construct a 5 km 2 grid cell panel by merging road network data from the late 1960s to 2016 with high resolution maps of local ethnic composition. Using a quasi-experimental empirical design, the study finds that cells where the local majority shares the ethnicity with the ruling elite receive 8.7 percent additional road investments and see a 13.8 improvement in road surface quality than otherwise comparable non co-ethnic cells. Exploiting the phased rollout of the Road Sector Development Program between 1997 and 2016, I also document that new roads raise night lights intensity by 0.27 standard deviations in cells benefiting from the program and by 0.51 standard deviations in co-ethnic areas, with larger effects for earlier investments. These findings suggest that ethnic alignment and the availability of large public funds jointly shape the placement of road infrastructure, influencing local economic dynamics.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Elena Perra"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.12.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-072522cd134cd02f","title":"Chinese college admissions and school choice reforms: An experimental study","abstract":"Since 2001, many Chinese provinces have transitioned from a “sequential” to a “parallel” school choice or college admissions mechanism. Inspired by this natural experiment, we evaluate the sequential (immediate acceptance, IA), parallel (PA), and deferred acceptance (DA) mechanisms in the laboratory. We find that participants are most likely to reveal their preferences truthfully under DA, followed by PA and then DA. While stability comparisons also follow the same order, efficiency comparisons vary across environments. Regardless of the metrics, the performance of PA is robustly sandwiched between IA and DA. Furthermore, 53% of our subjects adopt an insurance strategy under PA, making them at least as well off as what they could guarantee themselves under IA. These results help explain the recent reforms in Chinese school choice and college admissions.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Yan Chen","Onur Kesten"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.02.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0725fdbd6f00e1ed","title":"Jointly Held Investment Options and Vertical Relationships","abstract":"We find the optimal time for exercising a jointly held investment option. When the input market is competitive, the investment can take place earlier, later, or exactly when the optimal investment threshold is reached depending on how the option holders interact and on the bargaining power distribution. When instead the input supplier has market power, the game-theoretic framework downstream is shown to be of secondary importance. The timing effect that is attributed to the vertical relationship is always prevailing, which dictates the inefficient postponement of the investment.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Dimitrios Zormpas"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09784-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-072a0b2709e4699b","title":"Where is place in the history of work? Worksites, workspaces, and the home-work nexus","abstract":"The location of work is a topic of renewed scholarly and public interest, particularly spurred by the recent increase in working from home. Research in several social sciences demonstrates that work locations and workspaces have a significant impact on workers’ lives. Historians concur that in the long term, spatial changes in work have profound effects. It is therefore curious that beyond a limited set of examples, worksites and workspaces have received minimal sustained attention from economic historians. Here we survey the existing research and suggest ways forward. We begin by proposing a set of terms to distinguish between worksites, which are the geographical places of work, and workspaces, the immediate physical surroundings in which work occurs. We then survey recent research on changing worksites, the impacts of travel-to-work patterns on quality of life, and the effects of workspace arrangements. These literatures emphasize the multi-faceted consequences of location and space. Turning to historical research, we highlight three workplace-related topics that have attracted significant interest from historians: the history of commuting; the transition from home-based work to factories; and the locations of women’s work. These strands of research imply a U-shaped curve of working from home over time, but we note that quantitative investigations to support these observations are generally lacking. Inspired by current explorations of workplace change, we suggest new directions for historical research and conclude that there is a rich landscape of work-related research awaiting rigorous historical investigation.","wordCount":238,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Benjamin Schneider","J Whittle"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101752","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-072b2766af0bff39","title":"When the markets get CO.V.I.D: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion","abstract":"We quantify the exposure of major financial markets to news shocks about global contagion risk while accounting for local epidemic conditions. For a wide cross section of countries, we construct a novel dataset comprising (i) announcements related to COVID19 and (ii) high-frequency data on epidemic news diffused through Twitter (Hassan et al., 2019’s methodology). We provide novel empirical evidence about financial dynamics both around epidemic announcements and at daily/intra-daily frequencies. Analysis of contagion data and social media activity about COVID19 suggest that the market price of contagion risk is significant.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Maria Jose Arteaga-Garavito","Mariano Massimiliano Croce","Paolo Farroni","Isabella Wolfskeil"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103850","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-07351f3abaa1425a","title":"Econometric modelling of multiple self-reports of health states: The switch from EQ-5D-3L to EQ-5D-5L in evaluating drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis","abstract":"EQ-5D is used in cost-effectiveness studies underlying many important health policy decisions. It comprises a survey instrument describing health states across five domains, and a system of utility values for each state. The original 3-level version of EQ-5D is being replaced with a more sensitive 5-level version but the consequences of this change are uncertain. We develop a multi-equation ordinal response model incorporating a copula specification with normal mixture marginals to analyse joint responses to EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L in a survey of people with rheumatic disease, and use it to generate mappings between the alternative descriptive systems. We revisit a major cost-effectiveness study of drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis, mapping the original EQ-5D-3L measure onto a 5L valuation basis. Working within a comprehensive, flexible econometric framework, we find that use of simpler restricted specifications can make very large changes to cost-effectiveness estimates with serious implications for decision-making.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Mónica Hernández Alava","Stephen Pudney"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.06.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-07352e6fbbbf2cab","title":"Market tremors: Shale gas exploration, earthquakes, and their impact on house prices","abstract":"Shale gas has grown to become a major new source of energy in countries around the globe. While its importance for energy supply is well recognized, there has also been public concern over potential risks from hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’). Although commercial development has not yet taken place in the UK, licenses for drilling were issued in 2008, signalling potential future development. This paper examines whether public fears about fracking affect house prices in areas that have been licensed for shale gas exploration. Our estimates suggest differentiated effects. Licensing did not affect house prices but fracking the first well in 2011, which caused two minor earthquakes, did. We find a 3.9–4.7 percent house price decrease in the area where the earthquakes occurred. The earthquakes were too minor to have caused any damage but we find the effect on prices extends to a radius of about 25 km served by local newspapers. This evidence suggests that the earthquakes and newspaper coverage increased awareness of exploration activity and fear of the local consequences.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Stephen Gibbons","Stephan Heblich","Christopher Timmins"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103313","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-073c6720be8baa2c","title":"In Search of the Armington Elasticity","abstract":"How big is the elasticity of substitution between goods from different countries—the Armington elasticity? Estimates of the macroelasticity between home and imported goods are often smaller than the microelasticity between foreign sources of imports. Using new, highly disaggregate U.S. production data matched to imports and simulated data from a Melitz-style model with nested CES preferences, we explore estimation techniques for the two elasticities. For between two-thirds and three-quarters of sample goods, there is no significant difference between the macro- and microelasticities, but for the rest, the microelasticity is significantly higher, even at the same level of disaggregation.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Robert C. Feenstra","Philip Luck","Maurice Obstfeld","K. Russ"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00696","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07403511a3913ed8","title":"An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime","abstract":"This article surveys the co-evolution of monetary policy and financial stability for a number of countries from 1880 to the present. Historical evidence on the incidence, costs, and determinants of financial crises (the most extreme form of financial instability), combined with narratives on some famous financial crises, suggests that financial crises have many causes, including credit-driven asset price booms, which have become more prevalent in recent decades, but in general financial crises are very heterogeneous and hard to categorize. Moreover, evidence shows that the association across the country sample between credit booms, asset price booms, and serious financial crises is quite weak.","wordCount":102,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Michael D. Bordo"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000281","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-074463c492cbfa1f","title":"Understanding in‐house transactions in the real estate brokerage industry","abstract":"About 20% of residential real estate transactions in North America are in‐house transactions, for which buyers and sellers are represented by the same brokerage. We examine to what extent in‐house transactions are explained by agents' strategic incentives as opposed to matching efficiency. Using home transaction data, we find that agents are more likely to promote internal listings when they are financially rewarded and such effect becomes weaker when consumers are more aware of agents' incentives. We further develop a structural model and find that about one third of in‐house transactions are explained by agents' strategic promotion, causing significant utility loss for home buyers.","wordCount":103,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Lu Han","Seung‐Hyun Hong"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12163","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-074b7a77d0c88754","title":"The labour market and commuting: The importance of search frictions and transport-related fringe benefits","abstract":"Canonical urban models treat the labour market as frictionless and therefore imply full compensation for commuting costs. Given job search frictions, workers accept jobs that do not fully compensate for commuting costs. As a result, commuting distances become longer and affect labour market outcomes, including wages, in a way not predicted by frictionless models. Special attention is given to the role of transport-related fringe benefits, including employer-provided parking and company cars, which further increase commuting distances via tax-induced distortions.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Jos N. van Ommeren"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2026.104226","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-074cacee05cafaba","title":"The struggle for existence: Migration, competition, and human capital accumulation in historic china","abstract":"By exploiting immigrant spatial variation in 287 prefectures, this study shows that the 1127‐30 Han migration southward in historic China had a significantly positive effect on economic prosperity in the year 2000 (as measured by GDP and nighttime lights per capita). One possible explanation is that the migrant‐local competition since the implementation of the imperial civil service examination has incentivized both migrants and locals to invest in education to better compete with their rivals. These findings remain robust when I instrument migration flow size by the number of northern‐born officials governing southern prefectures during the migration period.","wordCount":97,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Ying Bai"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12565","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-074d670a5ea23ebf","title":"Skill, race, and wage inequality in British Tanganyika","abstract":"High racial disparities between Europeans and Africans and high skill premiums are recurrent themes in the literature on inequality in colonial Africa. However, their determinants and effects on inequality remain underexplored. This paper investigates wage inequality, skill premiums, and racial discrimination in British Tanganyika from c. 1920 to 1960. It provides first estimates for wage inequality and race premiums in Tanganyika and extends the coverage of earlier skill premium estimates. Initially, wage inequality in Tanganyika was comparable to neighbouring Kenya and Uganda, but it remained higher in the late colonial period. A primary driver of wage inequality was racial wage disparity, which was partly caused by racial discrimination. Skill premiums also played an important and increasing role and were higher than previously thought. The Tanganyikan administration's failure to expand African education to meet skilled labour demand significantly contributed to racial income differences and wage inequality within the African labour force.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Sascha Klocke"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101625","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0758b93f6ee5b8cb","title":"The Big Sort: College Reputation and Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"We explore how college reputation affects the “big sort,” the process by which students choose colleges and find their first jobs. We incorporate a simple definition of college reputation—graduates' mean admission scores—into a competitive labor market model. This generates a clear prediction: if employers use reputation to set wages, then the introduction of a new measure of individual skill will decrease the return to reputation. Administrative data and a natural experiment from the country of Colombia confirm this. Finally, we show that college reputation is positively correlated with graduates' earnings growth, suggesting that reputation matters beyond signaling individual skill.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["W. Bentley MacLeod","Evan Riehl","Juan Saavedra","Miguel Urquiola"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160126","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-075f97238b312b2b","title":"Portfolio optimisation under flexible dynamic dependence modelling","abstract":"Signals coming from multivariate higher-order conditional moments as well as the information contained in exogenous covariates can be exploited by rational investors to allocate their wealth among different risky investment opportunities. This paper proposes a new flexible dynamic copula model being able to explain and forecast the time-varying shape of large dimensional asset returns distributions. The time-varying dependence is introduced by allowing the dynamic updating equation of the copula correlation parameters to depend on a latent Markov-switching process as well as on exogenous covariates. As a further key ingredient of the model specification, we let the univariate marginals to be driven by an updating mechanism based on the scaled score of the conditional distribution. This framework allows us to introduce time-variation in the conditional moments up to the fourth order. Time-varying moments are then used to build a portfolio allocation strategy that maximises the utility function of a representative rational investor. We empirically assess that the proposed model substantially improves the optimal portfolio allocation with respect to competing alternative investment strategies.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Mauro Bernardi","Leopoldo Catania"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2018.05.002","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-0760a7dd3f4a9428","title":"The Misguided Assault on the Consumer Welfare Standard in the Age of Platform Markets","abstract":"In this paper, we discuss whether the consumer welfare (CW) standard needs to be replaced or revised in order for antitrust law to deal effectively with the economic challenges of the platform economy. We argue that both the general and platform-specific assaults on the CW standard are misguided, that the CW standard is capable of addressing the economic concerns that critics have raised, and that the proposed alternatives would make things worse—not better.","wordCount":73,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["A. Douglas Melamed","Nicolas Petit"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09688-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0762140f55f01753","title":"The impact of product market competition on workplace safety","abstract":"We investigate the impact of product market competition (PMC) on workplace health and safety violations. Our findings reveal that firms facing intense PMC have higher incidences of workplace safety standards violations and pay higher penalties for such offenses. By leveraging reductions in import tariffs as quasi-exogenous shocks, we demonstrate that competitive pressures significantly worsen these violations. The strategic orientations of firms, whether towards cost-cutting or product differentiation, markedly shape these outcomes. Furthermore, pressure from analysts amplifies the negative impact, while labor unionization helps mitigate these detrimental effects, highlighting the nuanced interplay between governance and market forces.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Emdad Islam","Blake Loriot","Lubna Rahman"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102778","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-07657677a8f4acd7","title":"An inquiry into the nature and causes of the Description - Experience gap","abstract":"The Description-Experience gap (DE gap) is widely thought of as a tendency for people to act as if overweighting rare events when information about those events is derived from descriptions but as if underweighting rare events when they experience them through a sampling process. While there is now clear evidence that some form of DE gap exists, its causes, exact nature, and implications for decision theory remain unclear. We present a new experiment which examines in a unified design four distinct causal mechanisms that might drive the DE gap, attributing it respectively to information differences (sampling bias), to a feature of preferences (ambiguity sensitivity), or to aspects of cognition (likelihood representation and memory). Using a model-free approach, we elicit a DE gap similar in direction and size to the literature’s average and find that when each factor is considered in isolation, sampling bias stemming from under-represented rare events is the only significant driver of the gap. Yet, model-mediated analysis reveals the possibility of a smaller DE gap, existing even without information differences. Moreover, this form of analysis of our data indicates that even when information about them is obtained by sampling, rare events are generally overweighted.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Robin Cubitt","Orestis Kopsacheilis","Chris Starmer"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09393-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0771f33afb63177c","title":"In utero exposure to violence and child health in Iraq","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of exposure to violence during pregnancy on anthropometric and cognitive outcomes of children in the medium run. I combine detailed household-level data on more than 36,000 children with geo-coded information on civilian casualties in the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq between 2003 and 2009 and exploit within-mother differences in prenatal exposure to violence. I find that one violent incident during pregnancy decreases height- and weight-for-age z-scores by 0.13 standard deviations and lowers cognitive and behavioral skills of children. Leveraging information on the severity, type and perpetrator of violence, I isolate the effect of stress from access to prenatal care. The analysis reveals that stressful events, particularly those involving direct threats to personal safety (violence directed at the civilian population and involving execution and torture), exert an even larger negative impact on child health than those incidents that disrupt health infrastructure and access to prenatal care.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Sulin Sardoschau"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01018-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-077e8820473771fe","title":"Falling behind and catching up: India's transition from a colonial economy","abstract":"India fell behind during colonial rule. The absolute and relative decline of Indian GDP per capita with respect to Britain began before colonization and coincided with the rise of the textile trade with Europe. However, the fortunes of the traditional textile industry cannot explain the decline in the eighteenth century and stagnation in the nineteenth century as India integrated into the global economy of the British Empire. Inadequate investment in agriculture and consequent decline in yield per acre stalled economic growth. Modern industries emerged and grew relatively fast. The reversal began after independence. Policies of industrialization and a green revolution in agriculture increased productivity in agriculture and industry. However, India's growth in the closing decades of the twentieth century has been led by services. A concentration of human capital in the service sector has origins in colonial policy. Expenditure on education prioritized higher education, creating an advantage for the service sector. At the same time, the slow expansion of primary education lowered the accumulation of human capital and put India at a disadvantage in comparison with the fast‐growing economies of East Asia.","wordCount":182,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Bishnupriya Gupta"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12849","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07869dd09c34c574","title":"Price Discovery without Trading: Evidence from Limit Orders","abstract":"We analyze the contribution to price discovery of market and limit orders by high‐frequency traders (HFTs) and non‐HFTs. While market orders have a larger individual price impact, limit orders are far more numerous. This results in price discovery occurring predominantly through limit orders. HFTs submit the bulk of limit orders and these limit orders provide most of the price discovery. Submissions of limit orders and their contribution to price discovery fall with volatility due to changes in HFTs’ behavior. Consistent with adverse selection arising from faster reactions to public information, HFTs’ informational advantage is partially explained by public information.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Jonathan Brogaard","Terrence Hendershott","Ryan Riordan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12769","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-078bab46413ff54c","title":"Kolmogorov–Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range based self-normalization approach","abstract":"A popular self-normalization (SN) approach in time series analysis uses the variance of a partial sum as a self-normalizer. This is known to be sensitive to irregularities such as persistent autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, unit roots and outliers. We propose a novel SN approach based on the adjusted-range of a partial sum, which is robust to these aforementioned irregularities. We develop an adjusted-range based Kolmogorov–Smirnov type test for structural breaks for both univariate and multivariate time series, and consider testing parameter constancy in a time series regression setting. Our approach can rectify the well-known power decrease issue associated with existing self-normalized KS tests without having to use backward and forward summations as in Shao and Zhang (2010), and can alleviate the “better size but less power” phenomenon when the existing SN approaches (Shao, 2010; Zhang et al., 2011; Wang and Shao, 2022) are used. Moreover, our proposed tests can cater for more general alternatives. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical studies demonstrate the merits of our approach.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Yongmiao Hong","Oliver Linton","Brendan McCabe","Jiajing Sun","Shouyang Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/362712","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-079048ea25eea7db","title":"Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Pei‐Fen Chen","Chien‐Chiang Lee","Jhih‐Hong Zeng"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1581909","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07ae80ea74f33870","title":"The dietary impact of the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic led to significant changes in people's budgets, the opportunity cost of their time, and where they can purchase and consume food. We use novel data on food and non-alcoholic drink purchases from stores, takeaways, restaurants and other outlets to estimate the impact of the pandemic on the diets of a large, representative panel of British households. We find that a substantial and persistent increase in calories consumed at home more than offset reductions in calories eaten out. Households increased total calories relative to pre-pandemic by 280 per adult per day from March to July 2020, and by 150 from July to the end of 2020. Although quantity increased, there was little change in diet quality over the pandemic. All socioeconomic groups increased their calorie intake, with the largest rises for the highest SES households and the smallest for retired ones. We estimate that the changes could increase the proportion of adults who are overweight by at least five percentage points, two years after the pandemic onset.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Martin O’Connell","Kate Smith","Rebekah Stroud"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102641","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-07b0dd0a8e0726a6","title":"Less Cash, Less Crime: Evidence from the Electronic Benefit Transfer Program","abstract":"It has been long recognized that cash plays a critical role in fueling street crime because of its liquidity and transactional anonymity. In this paper, we investigate whether the reduction in the circulation of cash on the streets associated with electronic benefit transfer (EBT) program implementation had an effect on crime. To address this question, we exploit the variation in the timing of EBT implementation across Missouri counties and counties in the states bordering Missouri. According to our results, the EBT program had a negative and significant effect on the overall crime rate and specifically for burglary, assault, and larceny. The point estimates indicate that the overall crime rate decreased by 9.2 percent in response to the EBT program. Interestingly, the significant drop in crime in the United States over several decades coincided with a period of steady decline in the proportion of financial transactions involving cash.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Richard Wright","Erdal Tekin","Volkan Topalli","Chandler McClellan","Timothy Dickinson","Richard Rosenfeld"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/693745","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07b74f2ed1b4b1c6","title":"Occupational Recognition and Immigrant Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"We analyze how the formal recognition of foreign qualifications affects immigrants’ labor market outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on a novel German data set that links respondents’ survey information to their administrative records, allowing us to observe immigrants at monthly intervals before, during, and after their application for occupational recognition. We find that 3 years after obtaining recognition, immigrants earn 19.8% higher wages and are 24.5 percentage points more likely to be employed than immigrants in the control group. We further document that occupational recognition leads to full convergence of immigrants’ earnings to those of their native counterparts.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Herbert Brücker","Albrecht Glitz","Adrian Lerche","Agnese Romiti"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/710702","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07bb0e589e0785ac","title":"Who’s afraid of the GOATs? - Shadow effects of tennis superstars","abstract":"In multi-stage tournaments, anticipated competition in future stages might affect the outcome of competition in the current stage. In particular, the presence of super- stars might demotivate the next-best competitors from seeking to advance to later rounds, where they ultimately are likely to face a superstar. Data from men’s profes- sional tennis tournaments held between 2004 and 2019 affirm that the participation of superstars (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray) reduces the probability that the remaining Top 20 players win their matches. Such shadow effects arise even in very early tournament stages, in which favoured players lose more often than expected, given their ability. The effects are more pronounced when multiple superstars com- pete in the tournament and disappear once all superstars have been eliminated from competition. Furthermore, shadow effects increase the probability of retirement of strong but non-superstar competitors and disappear once superstar performance is not dominant.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Christian Deutscher","Lena Neuberg","Stefan Thiem"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102663","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-07bc80b5925acd3a","title":"On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing","abstract":"This article analyses the effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) on global portfolio flows, differentiating across recipient region of the flows, type of flow and QE rounds. Furthermore, the analysis differentiates between the impact of QE expansionary announcements and the actual market operations. The analysis shows that QE1 resulted in (slight) rebalancing towards the US, while QE2 and QE3 resulted in rebalancing towards non‐US assets. This suggests that QE increased the pro‐cyclicality of flows outside the US, in particular into emerging market equities. The results also suggest a link between US macro‐financial conditions and the transmission of QE to portfolio flows.","wordCount":103,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Marcel Fratzscher","Marco Lo Duca","Roland Straub"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12435","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07c1badbbbf59b9e","title":"No news is good news: voluntary disclosure in the face of litigation","abstract":"We study disclosure dynamics when the firm value evolves stochastically over time. The presence of litigation risk, arising from the failure to disclose unfavorable information, crowds out positive disclosures. Litigation risk mitigates firms' tendency to use inefficient disclosure policies. From a policy perspective, we show that a stricter legal environment may be an efficient way to stimulate information transmission in capital markets, particularly when the nature of information is proprietary. We model the endogeneity of litigation risk in a dynamic setting and shed light on the empirical controversy regarding whether disclosure preempts or triggers litigation.","wordCount":95,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Iván Marinovic","Felipe Varas"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12156","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07c96023300fb93c","title":"The real effects of corruption on M&A flows: Evidence from China's anti-corruption campaign","abstract":"We exploit the public enforcement of the anti-corruption campaign across China to identify a causal role of political corruption in corporate takeover flows through a difference-in-differences (DID) analysis. We find that a reduction in corruption increases cross-region takeover activities by 40% and that deal volume more than doubles. Further analyses reveal that treatment effects are more evident for non-SOEs, politically unconnected acquirers, and acquirers that are less corrupt ex ante. We also show that the impact of the anti-corruption campaign is more pronounced in segmented cities where corruption practices are more entrenched. The reduction in corruption leads to higher bidder returns, improves post-acquisition performance, and markedly strengthens local economic development. The evidence indicates that the anti-corruption campaign was effective in attracting inbound corporate investments and supporting economic growth.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Chenghao Huang","Zhi Jin","Siyang Tian","Eliza Wu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106815","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-07d198becca98481","title":"Multiple Visits and Data Quality in Household Surveys","abstract":"In order to increase data quality some household surveys visit the respondent households several times to estimate one measure of consumption. For example, in Ghanaian Living Standards Measurement surveys, households are visited up to 10 times over a period of 1 month. I find strong evidence for conditioning effects as a result of this approach: In the Ghanaian data the estimated level of consumption is a function of the number of prior visits, with consumption being highest in the earlier survey visits. Telescoping (perceiving events as being more recent than they are) or seasonality (first‐of‐the‐month effects) cannot explain the observed pattern. To study whether earlier or later survey visits are of higher quality, I employ a strategy based on Benford's law. Results suggest that the consumption data from earlier survey visits are of higher quality than data from later visits. The findings have implications for the value of additional visits in household surveys, and also shed light on possible measurement problems in high‐frequency panels. They add to a recent literature on measurement errors in consumption surveys (Beegle et al ., , Gibson et al ., ), and complement findings by Zwane et al . ( ) regarding the effect of surveys on subsequent behaviour.","wordCount":204,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Matthias Schündeln"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12196","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07d2959a167fb62d","title":"Do single-sex classes affect academic achievement? An experiment in a coeducational university","abstract":"However, despite the criticisms of single-sex education, there are a number of potential psychological reasons for expecting a positive effect for young women in single-sex classes.For example, females in all-female classes may feel more confident and gain higher levels of self-efficacy (Gist and Mitchell, 1992); they may experience a reduction in stereotype threat (as discussed in Spencer et al., 1999; Steele, 1997; or Steele et al., 2002) or a reduction in psychological threat (as discussed in Cohen et al., 2006).Recently, there have been some important new studies aiming to estimate the effect of single-sex education on various educational and economic outcomes.These typically rely on comparing students attending different types of primary or secondary schools, or, within a school, comparing students who already knew they were likely or unlikely to attend singlesex classes.For instance, Park et al. ( 2012) compared students in co-ed high schools that are primarily publicly funded with students in gendersegregated schools that are primarily privately funded.Eisenkopf et al. (2015) examined students who chose to attend a school where 85 per cent of the population was female, meaning it is very likely that many students would be in single-sex classes.Booth and Nolen (2012a, 2012b) looked at publicly funded selective single-sex schools that they compared with the academic stream of publicly funded co-educational schools.In these studies, the ex ante choice of a primarily female school may bias the results, as argued by Jackson (2012), who shows that females who benefit from single-sex education are those with a preference to attend single-sex schools.It was for this reason that we chose in the present study to assign students randomly to single-sex and co-ed classes in a field experiment, and to follow them over time.","wordCount":283,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Alison L. Booth","Lina Cardona‐Sosa","Patrick J. Nolen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.08.016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07e4540d89862af1","title":"The Fiscal Cost of Hurricanes: Disaster Aid versus Social Insurance","abstract":"Little is known about the fiscal costs of natural disasters, especially regarding social safety nets that do not specifically target extreme weather events. This paper shows that US hurricanes lead to substantial increases in non-disaster government transfers, such as unemployment insurance and public medical payments, in affected counties in the decade after a hurricane. The present value of this increase significantly exceeds that of direct disaster aid. This implies, among other things, that the fiscal costs of natural disasters have been significantly underestimated and that victims in developed countries are better insured against them than previously thought.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Tatyana Deryugina"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140296","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-07f8a5abfc209592","title":"How private is private information? The ability to spot deception in an economic game","abstract":"We provide experimental evidence on the ability to detect deceit in a buyer-seller game with asymmetric information. Sellers have private information about the value of a good and sometimes have incentives to mislead buyers. We examine if buyers can spot deception in face-to-face encounters. We vary whether buyers can interrogate the seller and the contextual richness. The buyers' prediction accuracy is above chance, and is substantial for confident buyers. There is no evidence that the option to interrogate is important and only weak support that contextual richness matters. These results show that the information asymmetry is partly eliminated by people's ability to spot deception.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Michèle Bélot","Jeroen van de Ven"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-015-9474-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-08030af5fd2fb68d","title":"The impact of local fiscal and migration policies on human capital accumulation and inequality in china","abstract":"We develop and estimate a spatial overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households to study the feasibility of a recently proposed reform of internal migration policies that offers the potential of decreasing inequality within China. We find that this policy change significantly increases the college attainment of migrant children born in rural areas and, therefore, promises to increase the number of high‐skill workers. However, it requires significant tax increases to offset the reduction of the positive fiscal externalities provided by migrants.","wordCount":80,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Holger Sieg","Chamna Yoon","Jipeng Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12597","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-080328e8556acdbe","title":"Aggregative games and oligopoly theory: short‐run and long‐run analysis","abstract":"We compile an IO toolkit for aggregative games with positive and normative comparative statics results for asymmetric oligopoly in the short and long run. We characterize the class of aggregative Bertrand and Cournot oligopoly games, and the subset for which the aggregate is a summary statistic for consumer welfare. We close the model with a monopolistically competitive fringe for long‐run analysis. Remarkably, we show strong neutrality properties in the long run across a wide range of market structures. The results elucidate aggregative games as a unifying principle in the literature on merger analysis, privatization, Stackelberg leadership, and cost shocks.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Simon P. Anderson","Nisvan Erkal","Daniel Piccinin"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12322","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-080d534a96da5cce","title":"Bear factor and hedge fund performance","abstract":"These funds are more skilled at selling overpriced insurance during bad periods. We find that hedge funds that have low (negative) return covariance with the return of a bear spread portfolio (i.e., Bear factor) after controlling for the market factor, earn significantly higher returns in the cross-section. The return spread does not reflect bear risk premia; instead, it represents a low risk-high return relation. We decompose the Bear factor into different components to identify the one driving the bear beta effect on fund performance and show that the return spread can be attributed to the differential ability of low bear beta funds to reduce their market exposures when the market declines and the VIX increases (i.e., downside timing). Further analysis suggests that these fund managers are more skilled at selling overpriced insurance during volatile market periods. Overall, we propose a simple option-implied predictor of hedge fund returns and unravel a novel economic mechanism that associates the Bear factor exposure with fund performance.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Thang Ho","Anastasios Kagkadis","George Wang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101611","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0810019bdcca7c19","title":"Early evidence on recreational marijuana legalization and traffic fatalities","abstract":"Over the last few years, marijuana has become legally available for recreational use to roughly a quarter of Americans. Policy makers have long expressed concerns about the substantial external costs of alcohol, and similar costs could come with the liberalization of marijuana policy. Indeed, the fraction of fatal accidents in which at least one driver tested positive for tetrahydrocannabinol has increased nationwide by an average of 10% from 2013 to 2016. For Colorado and Washington, both of which legalized marijuana in 2014, these increases were 92% and 28%, respectively. However, identifying a causal effect is difficult due to the presence of significant confounding factors. We test for a causal effect of marijuana legalization on traffic fatalities in Colorado and Washington with a synthetic control approach using records on fatal traffic accidents from 2000 to 2016. We find the synthetic control groups saw similar changes in marijuana‐related, alcohol‐related, and overall traffic fatality rates despite not legalizing recreational marijuana.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Benjamin Hansen","Keaton Miller","Caroline Weber"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12751","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-081b973e55b8bea2","title":"Mismatch in human capital accumulation","abstract":"This article studies the allocation of heterogeneous agents to levels of educational attainment. The goal is to understand the magnitudes and sources of mismatch in this assignment, both in theory and in the data. The article presents evidence of substantial mismatch between ability and educational attainment across 21 OECD countries, with a main focus on Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States. Model parameters are estimated using a simulated method of moments approach. The main empirical finding is that measured mismatch arises largely from noise in test scores and does not reflect borrowing constraints. Taste shocks play a minor role in explaining mismatch.","wordCount":103,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Russell Cooper","Huacong Liu"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12386","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-081f85e065b323bf","title":"Experimental evidence on valuation with multiple priors","abstract":"Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit the min and the max of multiple priors directly. In an ambiguous scenario we measure a participant’s single prior, her min and max of multiple priors, and the valuation of an ambiguous asset with the same underlying states as the ambiguous scenario. We use the min and the max of multiple priors to directly test two popular multiple priors models: the maxmin model and the α maxmin model. We find more support for the α maxmin model: although people put about twice the weight on the minimum of multiple priors, they also consider the maximum. Furthermore, we indirectly elicit confidence weights over the whole set of multiple priors and test two additional models: variational preferences and the smooth model of ambiguity. Two particular versions of the variational preferences model explain less than the α maxmin but more than the maxmin model. Overall, the smooth model of ambiguity performs best among all models tested.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Jianying Qiu","Utz Weitzel"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9244-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-082079a74eb181e9","title":"The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment","abstract":"We examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks, in which labor has a comparative advantage, can be created. In a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous, automation reduces employment and the labor share, and may even reduce wages, while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects. Our full model endogenizes capital accumulation and the direction of research toward automation and the creation of new tasks. If the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low, the long-run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks. Otherwise, there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand-in-hand. Stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor, and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks. In an extension with heterogeneous skills, we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and the introduction of new tasks, and characterize the conditions under which inequality stabilizes in the long run.","wordCount":196,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Pascual Restrepo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160696","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-082f756c22303b71","title":"Incentives, penalties, and rural air pollution: Evidence from satellite data","abstract":"I test the role of economic incentives and command and control in reducing agricultural fires, a major source of air pollution in most rural regions across the world caused by burning crop residues after harvest. To tackle data shortage, I use high-resolution satellite data to construct a fine measure of agricultural fires as well as other geographic characteristics at 1 km × 1 km resolution for China. Using the staggered arrival of biomass power plants, which purchase crop residues as production inputs from nearby areas, as a shock to economic incentives, I find a more than 30% drop in agricultural fires in the vicinity of a plant after its opening relative to areas farther away. Such drop cannot be explained by structural transformation, migration, or enhanced regulation near the plant, and is consistent with an incentive-based explanation. I then examine the effectiveness of a command and control policy that bans agricultural fires within 15 km of airports. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I find no evidence that such policy works.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Yongwei Nian"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103049","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-08397e041582f878","title":"Sanitation and Education","abstract":"I explore whether the absence of school sanitation infrastructure impedes educational attainment, particularly among pubescent-age girls, using a national Indian school latrine construction initiative and administrative school-level data. School latrine construction substantially increases enrollment of pubescent-age girls, though predominately when providing sex-specific latrines. Privacy and safety appear to matter sufficiently for pubescent-age girls that only sex-specific latrines reduce gender disparities. Any latrine substantially benefits younger girls and boys, who may be particularly vulnerable to sickness from uncontained waste. Academic test scores did not increase following latrine construction, however. Estimated increases in enrollment are similar across the substantial variation in Indian district characteristics.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Anjali Adukia"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150083","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-084660beb07137c2","title":"Raising climate ambition in emissions trading systems: The case of the EU ETS and the 2021 review","abstract":"We provide a quantitative assessment of policy options to inform the 2021 review of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and raise climate ambition. We use a permit trading model in which firms utilize rolling finite planning horizons, which replicates historical price and banking developments well compared to an infinite horizon. When firms have bounded foresight, indirectly raising ambition through the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) is not equivalent to directly raising ambition through the emissions cap trajectory. Leveraging the MSR turns out to be efficiency improving as it compensates for firms’ bounded foresight by frontloading abatement efforts. We analyze the MSR interaction with the cap trajectory to exploit synergies and minimize the cost of raising ambition. We also provide a comparative assessment of a complete suite of changes in the MSR parameters. Whatever its parameters, MSR-induced resilience to demand shocks remains limited by design: the MSR acts more as an unconditional price support provider than as a responsive price stabilizer.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Simon Quemin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101300","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-084a94ab34d6bf51","title":"When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries","abstract":"This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. Moving the level of the exchange rate in flexible regimes requires that some conditions are met, including the use of large volumes and that intervention is made public and supported via communication.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Marcel Fratzscher","Oliver Gloede","Lukas Menkhoff","Lucio Sarno","Tobias Stöhr"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150317","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-085c8968f6fd69c6","title":"How Do Electricity Shortages Affect Industry? Evidence from India","abstract":"We estimate the effects of electricity shortages on Indian manufacturers, instrumenting with supply shifts from hydroelectric power availability. We estimate that India's average reported level of shortages reduces the average plant's revenues and producer surplus by 5 to 10 percent, but average productivity losses are significantly smaller because most inputs can be stored during outages. Shortages distort the plant size distribution, as there are significant economies of scale in generator costs and shortages more severely affect plants without generators. Simulations show that offering interruptible retail electricity contracts could substantially reduce the impacts of shortages.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Hunt Allcott","Allan Collard‐Wexler","Stephen D. O’Connell"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20140389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-08911d50414aed9b","title":"Long-Term-Care Utility and Late-in-Life Saving","abstract":"Older wealth holders spend down assets much more slowly than predicted by classic life-cycle models. This paper introduces health-dependent utility into a model with incomplete markets in which preferences for bequests, expenditures when in need of long-term care, and ordinary consumption combine with health and longevity uncertainty to explain saving behavior. To sharply identify motives, it develops strategic survey questions (SSQs) that elicit stated preferences. The model is estimated using these SSQs and wealth data from the Vanguard Research Initiative. The desire to self-insure against long-term-care risk explains a substantial fraction of the wealth holding of many older Americans.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["John Ameriks","Joseph Briggs","Andrew Caplin","Matthew D. Shapiro","Christopher Tonetti"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706686","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-089d65f9f000a5e2","title":"Structured ambiguity and model misspecification","abstract":"A decision maker is averse to not knowing a prior over a set of restricted structured models (ambiguity) and suspects that each structured model is misspecified. The decision maker evaluates intertemporal plans under all of the structured models and, to recognize possible misspecifications, under unstructured alternatives that are statistically close to them. Likelihood ratio processes are used to represent unstructured alternative models, while relative entropy restricts a set of unstructured models. A set of structured models might be finite or indexed by a finite-dimensional vector of unknown parameters that could vary in unknown ways over time. We model such a decision maker with a dynamic version of variational preferences and revisit topics including dynamic consistency and admissibility.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Lars Peter Hansen","Thomas J. Sargent"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105165","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-089f58fc5689de3d","title":"Do investors benefit from investing in stocks of green bond issuers?","abstract":"We investigate the environmental and financial performance of portfolios comprising stocks from worldwide green bond issuers compared to matched non-green but otherwise similar portfolios. Portfolios formed by stocks of green bond issuing companies show superior environmental performance, notably reflected in reduced CO2 emissions over the medium to long term. Furthermore, these portfolios exhibit financial performance, as measured by the five-factor model of Fama and French (2015), at least comparable to their non-green counterparts, even outperforming them over a 12-month investment horizon. Overall, investing in stocks of green bond issuers seemingly offers competitive risk-adjusted returns.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Guillermo Badía","Maria Céu Cortez","Florinda Silva"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111859","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-08a2a79bbc8e5075","title":"Bubbles, crashes, and the financial cycle: The impact of banking regulation on deep recessions","abstract":"This paper explores how different credit market and banking regulations affect business fluctuations. Capital adequacy- and reserve requirements are analyzed for their effect on the risk of severe downturns. We develop an agent-based macroeconomic model in which financial contagion is transmitted through balance sheets in an endogenous firm-bank network, which incorporates firm bankruptcy and heterogeneity among banks to capture the fact that contagion effects are bank specific. Using concepts from the empirical literature to identify amplitude and duration of recessions and expansions, we show that more stringent liquidity regulations are best to dampen output fluctuations and prevent severe downturns. Under such regulations, both leverage along expansions and amplitude of recessions become smaller. More stringent capital requirements induce larger output fluctuations and lead to deeper, more fragile recessions. This indicates that the capital adequacy requirement is procyclical and therefore not advisable as a measure to prevent financial contagion.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Sander van der Hoog","Herbert Dawid"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000219","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-08b48fa007265ff2","title":"Firm-level climate sentiments, climate politics and implied cost of equity capital","abstract":"In a sample of U.S. firms, we find strong evidence that firms' implied cost of equity is decreasing in a novel proxy of firm-level climate change sentiments of earnings call participants, supporting prior literature that shows investors demand higher returns from their investments in brown firms and lower returns from that in green firms. This effect, however, is particularly pronounced for the firm-years headquartered in the states experiencing higher than median per-capita energy related CO2 emissions, those headquartered in climate related disaster intensive counties and those headquartered in RED and SWING states, supporting “boomerang hypothesis” that green firms are hedged against potential changes in local climate standards and thus enjoy considerably cheaper financing in the localities marred with greenhouse gas emission concerns, climate related physical disasters, and climate unfriendly political environment. We utilize the variation in regionwide and statewide public beliefs about scientists' beliefs regarding the occurrence of global warming as an instrument to address endogeneity issues, among other tests.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Katsiaryna Salavei Bardos","Dev R. Mishra","Hyacinthe Somé"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102846","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-08bb324450385ede","title":"Economic growth, international trade, and the depletion or conservation of renewable natural resources","abstract":"Conservation of renewable natural resources and promotion of economic growth are both sustainable development goals. Here, we study the interdependency between economic growth, international trade, and the use of renewable natural resources—under alternative institutional settings of either open access or full property rights—in an endogenous growth model. We find that if the resource is depleted over time, consumption growth is reduced. Economic growth and international trade only impact resource use when the resource is harvested under full property rights. Then, widening international trade can lead countries to shift from conservation to depletion. Changes in the institutional setting of resource use in one country may have repercussions on trading partners. Our results indicate potential trade-offs between the sustainable development goals and imply that policies focusing on resource use or trade (e.g., international trade bans or certified trade) are not sufficient to prevent resource depletion.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Marie‐Catherine Riekhof","Esther Regnier","Martin F. Quaas"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.04.008","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-08c47453df717fb0","title":"Carbon pricing, technology transition, and skill-based development","abstract":"We analyze the impact of carbon prices on human capital accumulation, sectoral change, and economic growth. In our framework output is produced with dirty and/or clean technologies using skilled and unskilled labor as inputs. Carbon policy affects technology selection which transmits incentives for human capital formation. We show that a temporary policy may be sufficient for a transition to a clean economy and that such a policy also stimulates economic growth. Moreover, in the presence of inter-country knowledge spillovers, a carbon policy in the North helps human capital formation in the South and induces South’s transition to the clean steady state.","wordCount":101,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Kirill Borissov","Alexandra Brausmann","Lucas Bretschger"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.05.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-08cc0e6645f3419a","title":"Age heaping and numeracy: looking behind the curtain","abstract":"Age‐heaping‐based numeracy indicators have served as valuable tools to derive basic human capital estimates, especially for periods where other indicators are unavailable. However, the accuracy of individual age statements usually remains unknown, and due to the lack of precise information it can only be assumed that excessive occurrence of multiples of five in age distributions reflects inferior numerical skills. This article addresses this lacuna by identifying 162 individuals in two independent data sources: self‐reported age statements and independently kept records which are based on family heritage books and church registers. This method makes it possible to identify individual misreporting and the degree of accuracy of each individual. Findings show that not everyone who reported a multiple of five was reporting an incorrect age, nor was it the case that everyone who reported an age that was not a multiple of five was reporting an accurate age. The empirical analysis shows that the commonly used binary numeracy indicator is correlated with the observed degree of accuracy in age statements, and that a more sophisticated occupational background reduces this inaccuracy. These results tentatively suggest that the commonly used binary indicator measuring age heaping is a valuable proxy for numerical skills and occupational background in a population.","wordCount":204,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Matthias Blum","Karl‐Peter Krauss"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12615","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-08d5c82104358a8c","title":"Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes","abstract":"As police officers have become increasingly common in U.S. public schools, their role in school discipline has often expanded. While there is growing public debate about the consequences of police presence in schools, there is scant evidence of the impact of police on student discipline and academic outcomes. This paper provides the first quasi‐experimental estimate of funding for school police on student outcomes, leveraging variation in federal Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) grants. Exploiting detailed data on over 2.5 million students in Texas, I find that federal grants for police in schools increase middle school discipline rates by 6 percent. The rise in discipline is driven by sanctions for low‐level offenses or school code of conduct violations. Further, I find that Black students experience the largest increases in discipline. I also find that exposure to a three‐year federal [grant] school police is associated with a 2.5 percent decrease in high school graduation rates and a 4 percent decrease in college enrollment rates.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Emily Weisburst"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22116","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-08da660c94eb216a","title":"The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach","abstract":"After decades of trade liberalization, a return to protectionism has been observed in some developed economies. Recent studies have examined the impact of protectionism on international networks. In contrast to these studies, which focus on the impact of import tariffs on the global economy, we develop a production network model with international trade to assess the repercussions of sector-specific import tariffs on the policy-imposing country. Our model shows how the direct impact of higher tariffs on imported intermediate goods is amplified through the domestic production network. We find that the resulting decline in GDP and consumer welfare depends on the affected industries: their network centrality, the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic varieties, and the ratio of net-of-tax prices of domestic and foreign varieties. Our work contributes to the current debate on tariff escalation by advancing the literature on the effective rate of protection in a networked economy.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Helena Kreuter","Massimo Riccaboni"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106374","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-08db758965cf4bac","title":"Natural disasters, damage to banks, and firm investment","abstract":"This article investigates the effect of banks’ lending capacity on firms’ investment. To identify exogenous shocks to loan supply, we utilize the natural experiment provided by Japan's Great Hanshin‐Awaji earthquake in 1995. Using a unique data set that allows us to identify firms and banks in the earthquake‐affected areas, we find that the investment ratio of firms located outside the earthquake‐affected areas but having a main bank inside the areas was significantly smaller than that of firms located outside the areas and having a main bank outside the areas. Our findings suggest that loan supply shocks affect firm investment.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Kaoru Hosono","Daisuke Miyakawa","Taisuke Uchino","Makoto Hazama","Arito Ono","Hirofumi Uchida","Iichiro Uesugi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12200","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-08ef0598dc5a6c5f","title":"Affordability of nutritious diets in rural India","abstract":"In 2015-16 some 38% of preschool children in India were stunted, 21% wasted, and more than half of Indian mothers and young children were anemic. Though widely studied, surprisingly little research on malnutrition in India explores the role of diets, particularly the affordability of nutritious diets given low wages and the significant structural problems facing India's agricultural sector. To explore this we used nationally representative rural price and wage data to estimate the least cost means of satisfying India's national dietary guidelines, referred to as the Cost of a Recommended Diet (CoRD), and assessed the affordability of this diet relative to male and female wages for unskilled laborers. Although we find that dietary costs have increased substantially for both men and women, rural wage rates increased more rapidly, implying that nutritious diets became substantially more affordable over time. However, in absolute terms nutritious diets in 2011 were still expensive relative to unskilled wages, constituting approximately 80-90% of female and 50-60% of male daily wages. Overall, we estimate that 63-76% of the rural poor could not afford a recommended diet in 2011. Achieving nutritional security in India requires a much more holistic focus on improving the affordability of the full range of nutritious food groups (not just cereals), a reappraisal of social protection schemes in light of the cost of more complete nutrition, ensuring that economic growth results in sustained income growth for the poor, and more timely and transparent monitoring of food prices, incomes and dietary costs.","wordCount":247,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Kalyani Raghunathan","Derek Headey","Anna Herforth"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101982","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-08f023892dcf3d15","title":"Matching in Cities","abstract":"Using administrative German data, we show that large cities allow for a more efficient matching between workers and firms and this has important consequences for geographical inequality. Specifically, the match between high-quality workers and high-quality plants is significantly tighter in large cities relative to small cities. Wages in large cities are higher not only because of the higher worker quality but also because of a stronger assortative matching. Strong assortative matching in large cities magnifies wage differences caused by worker sorting, and is a key factor in explaining the growth of geographical wage disparities over the last three decades.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Wolfgang Dauth","Sebastian Findeisen","Enrico Moretti","Jens Suedekum"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-08f33f7d0536e768","title":"An analytically solvable principal-agent model","abstract":"We analyze a principal-agent model with moral hazard where the principal is risk neutral while the agent is risk averse or risk neutral. The agent is free to choose any probability distribution over outcomes, where some distributions require more effort than others. The agent's effort-cost function is of “Legendre type” and satisfies an axiom of invariance under mergers of outcomes that are equally paid by the principal. We analyze a family of such effort-cost functions. For a canonical subclass of these, and arbitrary outcome spaces, the principal's contract problem allows for closed-form solutions. Optimal contracts then combine debt with a monotonic sharing rule for the surplus above a threshold chosen by the principal. When the agent is risk neutral, the contract boils down to a pure debt contract. For agents with unit degree of relative risk aversion, the surplus is divided in fixed shares.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Lars‐Göran Mattsson","Jörgen W. Weibull"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-08f43f6343cbced2","title":"Platform pricing in mixed two‐sided markets","abstract":"When a consumer can appear on both sides of a two‐sided market, such as a user who both buys and sells on eBay, the platform may want to bundle the services it provides to two sides. I develop a general model for such “mixed” two‐sided markets and show that a monopolist platform's incentive to bundle and its optimal pricing strategy are determined by simple formulas using familiar price elasticities of demand, which embody the bundling effect, and price‐cost margins adjusted for network externalities, which incorporate “two‐sidedness.” The optimal pricing rule in such markets generalizes the familiar Lerner formula.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Ming Gao"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12298","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-08ffe1c2e8944170","title":"The Global Diffusion of Ideas","abstract":"We provide a tractable, quantitatively‐oriented theory of innovation and technology diffusion to explore the role of international trade in the process of development. We model innovation and diffusion as a process involving the combination of new ideas with insights from other industries or countries. We provide conditions under which each country's equilibrium frontier of knowledge converges to a Fréchet distribution, and derive a system of differential equations describing the evolution of the scale parameters of these distributions, that is, countries' stocks of knowledge. The model remains tractable with many asymmetric countries and generates a rich set of predictions about how the level and composition of trade affect countries' frontiers of knowledge. We use the framework to quantify the contribution of bilateral trade costs to long‐run changes in TFP and individual post‐war growth miracles. For our preferred calibration, we find that both gains from trade and the fraction of variation of TFP growth accounted for by changes in trade more than double relative to a model without diffusion.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Francisco Buera","Ezra Oberfield"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14044","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-090a08eb595a5c07","title":"Understanding Tax Policy: How do People Reason?","abstract":"I study how people understand, reason, and learn about two major tax policies: income taxation and estate taxation. Using large-scale social economics surveys issued to representative U.S. samples and associated experiments, I elicit respondents’ factual knowledge about tax policy and the income or wealth distributions. Most important, I study their understanding of the mechanisms of tax policy and the reasoning that underlies their policy views. In decomposing policy views, I find that support for income and estate taxes is most strongly correlated with social preferences, that is, the perceived benefits of redistribution and concerns around the fairness of inequality and taxation, as well as with broader views of the government. Efficiency concerns play a more minor role. These correlational patterns are confirmed by the experimental approach, which shows people instructional videos that explain the workings and consequences of one of the aspects of tax policy (the Redistribution and the Efficiency treatments) or that bring the two together and focus on the trade-off (the Economist treatment). The Redistribution and Economist treatments significantly increase support for more progressive income or estate taxes, while the Efficiency treatment has no effect. There are large partisan gaps in both the final policy views and at every step of the reasoning about the underlying mechanisms of taxes. Democrats’ and Republicans’ divergences in tax policy views can ultimately be traced back to different normative criteria (social preferences) and views of the government, rather than to different perceptions of the efficiency implications of taxation.","wordCount":246,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Stefanie Stantcheva"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-090b1804c9d8c032","title":"Present bias in the labor market – when it pays to be naive","abstract":"We study optimal employment contracts for present-biased employees if firms cannot commit to long-term contracts. Assuming that an employee's effort increases his chances to obtain a future benefit, we show that individuals who are naive about their present bias will actually be better off than sophisticated or time-consistent individuals. Moreover, firms might benefit from being ignorant about the extent of an employee's naiveté. Our results also indicate that naive employees might be harmed by policies such as employment protection or a minimum wage, whereas sophisticated employees are better off.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Matthias Fahn","Regina Seibel"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.06.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-090b3661a73e0849","title":"Uniform Pricing in U.S. Retail Chains","abstract":"We show that most U.S. food, drugstore, and mass-merchandise chains charge nearly uniform prices across stores, despite wide variation in consumer demographics and competition. Demand estimates reveal substantial within-chain variation in price elasticities and suggest that the median chain sacrifices ${\\$}$16 million of annual profit relative to a benchmark of optimal prices. In contrast, differences in average prices between chains are broadly consistent with the optimal benchmark. We discuss a range of explanations for nearly uniform pricing, highlighting managerial inertia and brand image concerns as mechanisms frequently mentioned by industry participants. Relative to our optimal benchmark, uniform pricing may significantly increase the prices paid by poorer households relative to the rich, dampen the response of prices to local economic shocks, alter the analysis of mergers in antitrust, and shift the incidence of intranational trade costs.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Stefano DellaVigna","Matthew Gentzkow"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-09160a68c6eca734","title":"How do fiscal rules shape governments' spending behavior?","abstract":"At odds with the large literature devoted to the fiscal discipline effects of fiscal rules, only few contributions investigate their impact on public spending. Estimations based on the entropy balancing method reveal the following causal effects: fiscal rules significantly reduce total public spending and public consumption, leave public investment mostly unaffected, and increase the public investment‐to‐public consumption ratio. Moreover, the type of fiscal rule and countries' level of economic development influence the way fiscal rules affect public spending. Lastly, fiscal rules' features are a major driving force of the way governments change public spending in the presence of fiscal rules.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Cezara Vinturis"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://uca.hal.science/hal-04101297","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-091844aecd04bae5","title":"The impact of air conditioning on residential electricity consumption across world countries","abstract":"We provide a first globally-relevant assessment of the electricity consumption consequences of households' adaptation to ambient heat through air conditioning (AC). We use household survey data from 25 countries within a discrete-continuous choice empirical framework to model households' joint air conditioning adoption and utilization decisions, and combine the estimated responses with scenarios of socioeconomic, demographic, and climatic change to project air conditioning prevalence and cooling electricity demand circa mid-century. We find that air conditioning ownership increases households' electricity consumption by 36%, on average, but the effect is heterogeneous, varying with weather conditions, income and country contexts, revealing the importance of behaviors, practices, climate, and technologies. Compared to the other drivers of electricity consumption, air conditioning has the leading marginal effect, also accounting for a significant share of household budgets. By 2050, the overall effect is a net increase in global yearly residential cooling electricity to 976-1393 TWh, with an additional 670-956 Mt of CO2 emissions, and associated social costs of $124-177 billion. Our findings highlight cooling energy expenditure as an emerging indicator of energy poverty as the climate warms, and provide an initial quantification of the economic and environmental risks associated with air conditioning as an adaptation to climate change.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Enrica De Cian","Giacomo Falchetta","Filippo Pavanello","Yasmin Romitti","Ian Sue Wing"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103122","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0918b86546d0ef04","title":"Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics","abstract":"We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the post-COVID period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is elevated.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Martín Harding","Jesper Lindé","Mathias Trabandt"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-091a7453e0abb849","title":"How to design infrastructure contracts in a warming world: A critical appraisal of public–private partnerships","abstract":"We analyze how long‐term uncertainty, for example, regarding future climate conditions, affects the design of concession contracts and organizational forms in a principal–agent context, with dynamic moral hazard, limited liability, and irreversibility constraints. The prospect of future, uncertain productivity shocks on the returns on the firm's effort creates an option value of delaying efforts, a course that exacerbates agency costs. Contracts and organizational forms are drafted to control this cost of delegated flexibility. The possibility for the agent to delay investment in response to uncertainty and irreversibility also elicits preference for unbundling different stages of the project through short‐term contracts. Our analysis is relevant to infrastructure sectors that are sensitive to changing weather conditions and sheds a pessimistic light on the relevance of public–private partnerships in this context.","wordCount":128,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["David Martimort","Stéphane Straub"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12148","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-091ab1f47a38766f","title":"National Policies for Global Emission Reductions: Effectiveness of Carbon Emission Reductions in International Supply Chains","abstract":"In a world with diverging emission reduction targets, national climate policies might be ineffective in reducing consumption-based CO2 emissions (carbon footprints), i.e. emissions of final demand that are embodied across the whole supply chain, including international fractions. We analyse a set of different policies in three areas with particularly high consumption-based emissions in Austria: building construction, public health, and transport. To capture the substitution possibilities triggered by these policies and the induced emission reductions along the full global supply chain, our analysis combines a Computable General Equilibrium with a Multi-Regional Input-Output model. For construction of buildings we find that a carbon added tax is highly effective in reducing consumption-based emissions whereas an information obligation on vacant dwellings combined with a penalty payment when vacant buildings are not made available is ineffective because of reallocated investment capital. Mandatory energy efficiency improvements in public health and mobility are found equally effective in reducing consumption- and production-based emissions while a decarbonization of freight transport logistics stronger reduces production-based emissions. Overall, the effectiveness of policies, to mitigate consumption-based emissions, is therefore determined by the backward and forward linkages of the sector addressed by the policy as well as the substitution effects within final demand.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Stefan Nabernegg","Birgit Bednar‐Friedl","Pablo Muñoz","Michaela Titz","Johanna Vogel"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-09211465c958969b","title":"Inputs, networks and quality-upgrading: Evidence from China in India","abstract":"This paper exploits China's accession to the WTO to investigate the impact of a supply shock on quality across the Indian production network. After controlling for increased import competition, including in downstream and third-country markets, and for new export opportunities, we find that a fall in input tariffs raises revenue, quality and prices, whilst lowering quality-adjusted prices and the probability of product exit – consistent with a simple model of multi-product manufacturers gaining access to higher-quality components. Upgrading persists for at least ten years; at the peak in 2010, products with a 10% higher pre-accession input tariff, and hence a larger post-accession fall in tariffs, have 5.3% higher quality. This in turn raises quality further down the supply chain, with input-output linkages amplifying the one-step effect by up to 75%. These results highlight a potential beneficial impact of the “China shock” in developing countries, namely supply-driven quality upgrading.","wordCount":148,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Alexander Copestake","Wenzhang Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101891","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-09316fb325a6efe6","title":"Multifaceted aid for low‐income students and college outcomes: Evidence from north carolina","abstract":"We study the evolution of a campus‐based aid program for low‐income students that began with grant‐heavy financial aid and later added a suite of nonfinancial supports. We find little to no evidence that program eligibility during the early years (2004–2006), in which students received additional institutional [grant] and few nonfinancial supports, improved postsecondary progress, performance, or completion. In contrast, program‐eligible students in more recent cohorts (2007–2010), when the program supplemented grant‐heavy aid with an array of nonfinancial supports, were more likely to meet credit accumulation benchmarks toward timely graduation and earned higher grade point averages than their barely ineligible counterparts.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Charles T. Clotfelter","Steven W. Hemelt","Helen F. Ladd"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12486","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0932cf40c3ba9c9f","title":"Rural-urban migration at high urbanization levels","abstract":"This study assesses the empirical relevance of the Harris-Todaro model at high levels of urbanization – a feature that characterizes an increasing number of developing countries, which were largely rural when the model was created 50 years ago. Using data from Brazil, the paper compares observed and model-based predictions of the equilibrium urban employment rate of 449 cities and the rural regions that are the historic sources of their migrant populations. Little support is found in the data for the most basic version of the model. However, extensions that incorporate labor informality and housing markets have much better empirical traction. Harris-Todaro equilibrium relationships are relatively stronger among workers with primary but no high school education, and those relationships are more frequently found under certain conditions: when cities are relatively larger; and when the associated rural areas are closer to the magnet city and populated to a greater degree by young adults, who are most likely to migrate.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Matí­as Busso","Juan Pablo Chauvin","Nicolás Herrera L."],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103658","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-093991db026da82c","title":"Spillovers between Bitcoin and other assets during bear and bull markets","abstract":"This article contributes to the embryonic literature on the relations between Bitcoin and conventional investments by studying return and volatility spillovers between this largest cryptocurrency and four asset classes (equities, stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds) in bear and bull market conditions. We conducted empirical analyses based on a smooth transition VAR GARCH-in-mean model covering daily data from 19 July 2010 to 31 October 2017. We found significant evidence that Bitcoin returns are related quite closely to those of most of the other assets studies, particularly commodities, and therefore, the Bitcoin market is not isolated completely. The significance and sign of the spillovers exhibited some differences in the two market conditions and in the direction of the spillovers, with greater evidence that Bitcoin receives more volatility than it transmits. Our findings have implications for investors and fund managers who are considering Bitcoin as part of their investment strategies and for policymakers concerned about the vulnerability that Bitcoin represents to the stability of the global financial system.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Elie Bouri","Mahamitra Das","Rangan Gupta","David Roubaud"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1488075","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0956351a74e3f92b","title":"Misreporting of Government Transfers: How Important Are Survey Design and Geography?","abstract":"Recent studies linking household surveys to administrative records reveal high rates of misreporting of program receipt. We use the FoodAPS survey to examine whether the findings of these studies of general household surveys using one or two states generalize to a survey with a narrow focus and across many states. First, we study how reporting errors differ from other surveys. We find a lower rate of false negatives (failures to report true receipt) in FoodAPS, likely partly due to the shorter recall period of FoodAPS. Misreporting varies with household characteristics and between interviewers. Second, we examine geographic heterogeneity in survey error to assess whether we can extrapolate from linked data from a few states. We find systematic differences between states in unconditional error rates but no evidence of substantial differences conditional on common covariates. Thus, extrapolating error rates across states may yield more accurate receipt estimates than uncorrected survey estimates.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Bruce Meyer","Nikolas Mittag"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12366","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-097f5fbabe3b90e1","title":"Ethnicity and health at work during the COVID-19","abstract":"This paper explores how health-work-related illnesses and injuries have changed during the COVID-19 pandemic for different ethnic groups and by gender. We find that not all groups were affected in the same way. While almost all men in all ethnic groups were on average less likely to work during the pandemic period, women were more likely to work. We also find that Mixed Ethnic and Pakistani women who reported a higher probability of working in the reference week had a higher risk of illness/injuries at work. Meanwhile, White men and Other ethnic groups with a reduced probability of working during the pandemic had a lower risk of illness/injuries at work. Long-term illness varied by ethnicity and gender, with men experiencing a reduction and women an increase in physical and mental health issues. This research provides valuable insights into the multifaceted impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health and work patterns of different ethnic groups and gender. Understanding and identifying these disparities is crucial for formulating targeted policies aimed at mitigating adverse effects and promoting equitable outcomes in regional studies and urban economics.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Joan E. Madia","Francesco Moscone","Catia Nicodemo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104083","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0982790802eecc93","title":"The Long‐Term Effects of Early Track Choice","abstract":"We investigate the effects of attending a more advanced track in middle school on long‐term education and labour market outcomes for Germany, a country with a rigorous early‐age tracking system, where the risk of misallocating students is particularly high. Our research design exploits quasi‐random shifts between tracks induced by date of birth, and speaks to the long‐term effects of early track attendance for a group of marginal students most at risk of misallocation. Remarkably, we find no evidence that attending a more advanced track leads to more favourable long‐term outcomes. We attribute this result to the possibility of later track‐reversal.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Christian Dustmann","Patrick A. Puhani","Uta Schönberg"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12419","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-098ab238ab6a8e62","title":"Forecasts for a post‐Roe America: The effects of increased travel distance on abortions and births","abstract":"I compile novel data measuring county‐level travel distances to abortion facilities and resident abortion rates from 2009 through 2020. Using these data, I implement a difference‐in‐difference research design measuring the effects of driving distance to the nearest abortion facility on abortions and births. The results indicate large but diminishing effects: an increase from 0 to 100 miles is estimated to reduce abortion rates by 19.4% and increase birth rates by 2.2%, while the next 100 miles reduces abortions by an additional 12.8% and increases births by an additional 1.6%. Based on this evidence, I forecast the effects of post‐Roe abortion bans on abortion rates by county, state, and region. In a scenario in which total abortion bans take effect in 24 states, about one‐quarter of residents seeking abortions are predicted to become trapped by distance and about three‐quarters of those who are trapped are predicted to give birth as a result.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Caitlin Knowles Myers"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22524","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0993e917841f5909","title":"How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?","abstract":"I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. I develop and estimate a multi-industry general equilibrium model in which each industry employs the material and capital goods produced by other sectors. Using data on US industries' input prices and input choices, I find that the goods produced by different industries are complements to one another as inputs in downstream industries' production functions. These complementarities indicate that industry-specific shocks are substantially more important than previously thought, accounting for at least half of aggregate volatility.","wordCount":89,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Enghin Atalay"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160353","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-099c379e9d9ee846","title":"How Much do Existing Borrowers Value Microfinance? Evidence from an Experiment on Bundling Microcredit and Insurance","abstract":"Randomized controlled trials have found only modest effects of microfinance, but these studies focus on new clients. Existing estimates may thus understate ongoing gains for more experienced borrowers and the longer‐run potential of microfinance. We estimate impacts of microfinance on experienced borrowers, using an episode when a microfinance institution modestly increased existing clients’ fees in randomly selected villages (in exchange for a mandatory health insurance policy that turned out to be useless). This increase in fees led to a 22 percentage point decline in loan renewal in treatment villages (95% confidence interval: 16 to 27), compared to control villages where the policy was not introduced. Using this randomly generated variation in microfinance participation among experienced borrowers, we find impacts of microfinance that are strikingly similar to previous estimates for new clients: neither business outcomes nor household consumption were affected, on average. Also, consistent with prior studies, we find significant impacts on business outcomes among clients who had started their businesses before microfinance entered the village (0.06 standard deviation decline in an index of business outcomes from the loss of microfinance, 95% confidence interval: −0.002 to −0.12). However, despite these measured losses, these clients were just as willing to give up microfinance.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Abhijit Banerjee","Esther Duflo","Richard Hornbeck"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12271","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-09b09feb406e69b9","title":"The effect of integration of hospitals and post-acute care providers on Medicare payment and patient outcomes","abstract":"In this paper we examine empirically the effect of integration on Medicare payment and rehospitalization. We use 2005-2013 data on Medicare beneficiaries receiving post-acute care (PAC) in the U.S. to examine integration between hospitals and the two most common post-acute care settings: skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and home health agencies (HHA), using two measures of integration-formal vertical integration and informal integration representing preferential relationships between providers without formal relationships. Our identification strategy is twofold. First, we use longitudinal models with a fixed effect for each hospital-PAC pair in a market to test how changes in integration impact patient outcomes. Second, we use an instrumental variable approach to account for patient selection into integrated providers. We find that vertical integration between hospitals and SNFs increases Medicare payments and reduces rehospitalization rates. However, vertical integration between hospitals and HHAs has little effect, nor does informal integration between hospitals and either PAC setting.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["R. Tamara Konetzka","Elizabeth A. Stuart","Rachel M. Werner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.01.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-09b218d07867289d","title":"Artificial intelligence adoption and workplace training","abstract":"As artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes business processes, firms must adapt their training strategies to cultivate a skilled workforce. Using German establishment-level panel data from 2019 to 2023, this study analyzes how firms adjust their training strategies following AI adoption. Staggered difference-in-differences analysis shows that sustained AI adoption is associated with a 14% increase in new apprenticeships among training firms (intensive margin), but is not linked to the training decision (extensive margin). AI adoption is also associated with a modest increase in continuing training, with resources shifting toward high-skilled employees. The results align with AI as an automation innovation that reduces demand for simple skills as well as an augmentation innovation that increases demand for more advanced skills. The German dual apprenticeship system appears critical for firms aiming to build a future-ready workforce in the age of AI.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Samuel Muehlemann"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107206","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-09b70dc3712bd11b","title":"Institutions’ impact on the corruption–growth nexus: Nonlinearities and transmission channels","abstract":"We analyze the channels through which institutional quality can impact the corruption–growth nexus. To do this, we develop an endogenous growth model and test its implications empirically, through panel data models using GMM and PSTR settings. Our sample consists of 136 developed and developing countries analyzed over the period 1984–2015. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that (i) the corruption–growth relation can be subject to nonlinearities highly influenced by countries’ institutional development; and (ii) private investment and public spending are two main channels through which institutional quality affects, positively or negatively, the relation between corruption and economic growth.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Réda Marakbi","Camélia Turcu","Patrick Villieu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000452","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-09d883909e7b3784","title":"The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings","abstract":"Using data on 143 sovereigns provided by nine agencies based in six countries, we estimate the determinants of sovereign ratings to test whether agencies assign higher ratings to their respective home countries, as well as to economically, geopolitically, and culturally aligned countries. Our regression results show that the respective home country, culturally more similar countries, and countries to which home-country banks have a larger risk exposure receive higher ratings than justified by their economic and political fundamentals. Cultural proximity, as measured by linguistic similarity, is shown to be the main transmission channel that explains the advantage of the home country. Further empirical tests that control for the existence of foreign offices and rated countries' levels of information transparency suggest that a more optimistic perception of risks rather than informational advantages drives this cultural home bias.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Andreas Fuchs","Kai Gehring"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx009","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-09da9cca05de0db2","title":"Integrating the green economy, circular economy and bioeconomy in a strategic sustainability framework","abstract":"The green economy, circular economy and bioeconomy are popular narratives in macro-level sustainability discussions in policy, scientific research and business. These three narratives offer three different recipes to address economic, social and ecological goals, thus promoting different pathways for sustainability transformations. We employ the well-known Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (The Natural Step Framework) to comparatively identify the relative and integrated contribution of the three narratives for global net sustainability. We conclude that none of the three narratives, individually, offer a comprehensive ‘package’ of solutions. However, when considered jointly as collaborative narratives, they point towards a society and economy based on renewable/reproductive and biodiversity-based/benign processes, delivering material and immaterial benefits that fulfil the economic and social requirements of all people now and in the future. While the complementary understanding of the circular economy, bioeconomy and green economy provides important guidelines for sustainability transformations post-Covid-19, there is a need for more holistic, systems-wide and integrative research work on potentially competing or supplementary sustainability narratives. This type of work of clarification and synthesis is relevant to a wide range of scholars and professionals, since the conceptual understanding of sustainability narratives informs practical implementation through strategies, actions and monitoring tools, in public and private decision-making.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Dalia D’Amato","Jaana Korhonen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107143","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-09de25ec33ca856e","title":"The Value of Regulatory Discretion: Estimates From Environmental Inspections in India","abstract":"High pollution persists in many developing countries despite strict environmental rules. We use a field experiment and a structural model to study how plant emission standards are enforced. In collaboration with an Indian environmental regulator, we experimentally doubled the rate of inspection for treatment plants and required that the extra inspections be assigned randomly. We find that treatment plants only slightly increased compliance. We hypothesize that this weak effect is due to poor targeting, since the random inspections in the treatment found fewer extreme violators than the regulator's own discretionary inspections. To unbundle the roles of extra inspections and the removal of discretion over what plants to target, we set out a model of environmental regulation where the regulator targets inspections, based on a signal of pollution, to maximize plant abatement. Using the experiment to identify key parameters of the model, we find that the regulator aggressively targets its discretionary inspections, to the degree that half of the plants receive fewer than one inspection per year, while plants expected to be the dirtiest may receive ten. Counterfactual simulations show that discretion in targeting helps enforcement: inspections that the regulator assigns cause three times more abatement than would the same number of randomly assigned inspections. Nonetheless, we find that the regulator's information on plant pollution is poor, and improvements in monitoring would reduce emissions.","wordCount":223,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Esther Duflo","Michael Greenstone","Rohini Pande","Nicholas Ryan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12876","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-09dea9b643fba25c","title":"Incentive compatible allocation and exchange of discrete resources","abstract":"The allocation and exchange of discrete resources, such as transplant organs, public housing, dormitory rooms, and many other resources for which agents have single-unit demand, is often conducted via direct mechanisms without monetary transfers. Incentive compatibility and efficiency are primary concerns when designing such mechanisms. We construct the full class of group strategy-proof and Pareto-efficient mechanisms and show that each of them can be implemented by endowing agents with control rights over resources. This new class, which we call trading cycles, contains new mechanisms as well as known mechanisms such as top trading cycles, serial dictatorships, and hierarchical exchange. We illustrate how one can use our construction to show what can and what cannot be achieved in a variety of allocation and exchange problems, and we provide an example in which the new trading-cycles mechanisms are more Lorenz equitable than all previously known mechanisms.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Marek Pycia","M. Utku Ünver"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2201","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-09ea0a568e8a8e36","title":"Geographical factors and business failure: An empirical study from the Madrid metropolitan area","abstract":"Geography has been considered a decisive factor in different fields of business-related research. This paper provides some evidence concerning the role of geography on business failure in urban environments. The paper use spatial econometric methodology to evaluate the impact of the geographical location of external economic agents on the probability of business failure. In addition, it is shown that probabilities of business failure for geographically close firms are correlated. A firm-level empirical application based on 3125 industrial small and medium firms (SMEs) located on the Madrid metropolitan area (Spain) confirms that the geographical proximity between firms, external economic agents and transport facilities has a determinant impact on business failure among these companies. This study contributes to gaining a greater understanding of the factors that determine SMEs business failure, highlighting the importance of geographical factors.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Mariluz Maté‐Sánchez‐Val","Fernando A. López Hernández","Christian Fuentes"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.022","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0a0fda2465d6522d","title":"Which sanctions matter? analysis of the EU/russian sanctions of 2014","abstract":"We use a quasi-natural experiment of reciprocal imposition of trade sanctions by Russia and the EU since 2014. Using UNCTAD/BACI bilateral flows data we take this unique opportunity to analyse both sanctions. In particular, we study the effectiveness of narrow versus broadly defined sanctions, and differences in the effectiveness of sanctions imposed on exports and imports. We show that the Russian sanctions imposed on European and American food imports resulted in about an 8 times stronger decline in trade flows than those imposed by the EU and the US on exports of extraction equipment. These results do not appear to be driven by diversion of trade flows via non-sanctioning countries. Hence the difference in sanctions’ effectiveness can be attributed to the limited retroactivity of Western sanctions, which allowed exemptions for exports made pursuant to contracts made prior to 2014.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Matěj Bělín","Jan Hanousek"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2020.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0a1e8cf7553d5a4c","title":"Why has China’s Inequality of Household Wealth Risen Rapidly in the Twenty‐First Century?","abstract":"The inequality of wealth in China has increased rapidly in recent years. China presents a fascinating case study of how inequality of household wealth increases as economic reform takes place. Wealth inequality and its growth are measured and decomposed using data from two national sample surveys of the China Household Income Project (CHIP) relating to 2002 and 2013. The changing relationships between income and wealth are explored. An original attempt is made to explain the rising wealth inequality in terms of differential saving, differential house price inflation, income from wealth, and a growing urban‐rural wealth disparity. Income from wealth as conventionally measured makes a negligible contribution but becomes central when it is reformulated to include real capital gain as part of income. A series of counterfactual experiments are conducted in order to measure the contributions of the various factors to the rise in inequality. Wealth and wealth inequality increase most rapidly for those in the top wealth decile.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["John Knight","Shi Li","Wan Haiyuan"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12507","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0a4af999d79fda48","title":"Futures contract collateralization and its implications","abstract":"Defining a futures return as the rate of change of futures prices, as done in many empirical studies, implicitly implies that a futures contract is fully collateralized. We adjust futures’ returns to explicitly account for holding the minimum margin (collateral) and the return to this collateral. Different collateral choices of the futures affect the dynamic properties of returns to futures contracts and modify their risk profile. In our empirical study, we document these discrepancies under full and partial collateralization. The discrepancy is minimal except when the futures prices and minimum margins are volatile. Our analysis calls for a review on the extent of diversification benefits offered by futures.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Robert A. Jarrow","Simon Kwok"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101422","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0a55095a93b943a0","title":"Sexual exploitation of trafficked children: Survey evidence from child sex workers in Bangladesh","abstract":"Human trafficking is a serious humanitarian problem. Using a nationally representative survey of Bangladeshi child sex workers and an instrumental variable model, we examine the working conditions of trafficked child sex workers and how they differ from those of nontrafficked child sex workers. We find that the victims trade sex with 190 percent more clients at a 67.8 percent lower wage and are more exposed to violence, leading to sickness, such as fever and headache. However, the differences in the prevalence of STDs and injury are insignificant presumably because the owners have an incentive to protect the victims from STDs. These findings suggest that evaluating sex workers’ working conditions by the prevalence of STDs alone may underestimate the severity of the exploitation of victims. Furthermore, conducting an empirical analysis without distinguishing between trafficked and nontrafficked workers, as performed in previous studies, leads to misunderstandings regarding the sex industry. We also contribute to the literature concerning the worst form of child labor by providing the first rigorous evidence of the working conditions of child sex workers. Finally, four implications for practitioners are discussed.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Masahiro Shoji","Kenmei Tsubota"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.06.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0a598e5087bf5192","title":"Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe","abstract":"We document the spiral of populism in Europe and the direct and indirect role of economic insecurity shocks. Using survey data on individual voting, we make two contributions to the literature. (i) Economic insecurity shocks have a significant impact on the populist vote share, directly as demand for protection, and indirectly through the induced changes in trust and attitudes. (ii) A key consequence of increased economic insecurity is a drop in turnout. The impact of this largely neglected turnout effect is substantial: conditional on voting, when economic insecurity increases, almost 40% of the induced change in the vote for a populist party comes from the turnout channel.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Luigi Guiso","Helios Herrera","Massimo Morelli","Tommaso Sonno"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12513","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0a64d95b78fe8b6f","title":"News media and delegated information choice","abstract":"No agent has the resources to monitor all events that are potentially relevant for his decisions. Therefore, many delegate their information choice to specialized news providers that monitor the world on their behalf and report only a curated selection of events. We document empirically that, while different outlets typically emphasize different topics, major events shift the general news focus and make coverage more homogeneous. We propose a theoretical framework that formalizes this type of state-dependent editorial behavior by introducing news selection functions. We prove that (i) agents can always reduce the entropy of their posterior beliefs by delegating their information choice, (ii) state-dependent reporting conveys information not only via the contents of a story, but also via the decision of what to report, and (iii) an event that is reported by all news providers is common knowledge among agents only if it is also considered maximally newsworthy by all providers. As an application, we embed delegated news selection into a simple beauty-contest model to demonstrate how it affects actions in a setting with strategic interactions.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Kristoffer Nimark","Stefan Pitschner"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2019.02.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0a6b06107375c7cd","title":"Bad reputation with simple rating systems","abstract":"We consider information censoring through finite memory as a device against bad reputational concerns. Our class of constrained information policies resembles common practices in online reputation systems, on which customers increasingly rely whenever hiring experts. In a world of repeated interactions between a long-lived expert and short-lived customers, Ely and Välimäki (2003) show that unlimited record-keeping may induce the expert to overchoose a certain action, seeking reputational gains. Consequently, welfare may reduce and markets may break down. We show that simple rating systems in such world help overcome market failures and improve upon both the full-memory and the no-memory cases.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Caio Lorecchio","Daniel Monte"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.07.019","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0a77a3352f76e858","title":"Choice and Matching","abstract":"We study path-independent choice rules applied to a matching context. We use a classic representation of these choice rules to introduce a powerful technique for matching theory. Using this technique, we provide a deferred acceptance algorithm for many-to-many matching markets with contracts and study its properties. Next, we obtain a compelling comparative static result: if one agent's choice expands, the remaining agents on her side of the market are made worse off, while agents on the other side of the market are made better off. Finally, we establish several results related to path-independent choice rules.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Christopher P. Chambers","M. Bumin Yenmez"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150236","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0a7a620ba7be05e3","title":"Migration, Diversity, and Economic Growth","abstract":"When migrants move from one country to another, they carry a new range of skills and perspectives, which nurture technological innovation and stimulate economic growth. At the same time, increased heterogeneity may undermine social cohesion, create coordination, and communication barriers, and adversely affect economic development. In this article we investigate the extent to which cultural diversity affects economic growth and whether this relation depends on the level of development of a country. We use novel data on bilateral migration stocks, that is the number of people living and working outside the countries of their birth over the period 1960–2010, and compute indices of fractionalization and polarization. In so doing, we explore the effect of immigration on development through its effect on the composition of the destination country. We find that overall both indices have a distinct positive impact on real GDP per capita and that the effect of diversity seems to be more consistent in developing countries.","wordCount":157,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Vincenzo Bove","Leandro Elia"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0a8a9aab080b7334","title":"Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America","abstract":"Do natural resources benefit producer economies, or is there a “Natural Resource Curse”, perhaps as the crowd-out of manufacturing productivity spillovers reduces long-term growth? We combine new data on oil and gas endowments with Census of Manufactures microdata to estimate how oil and gas booms affect local economies in the U.S. Local wages rise during oil and gas booms, but manufacturing is not crowded out—in fact, the sector grows overall, driven by upstream and locally-traded subsectors. Tradable manufacturing subsectors do contract during resource booms, but their productivity is unaffected, so there is no evidence of foregone local learning-by-doing effects. Over the full 1969–2014 sample, a county with one standard deviation additional oil and gas endowment averaged about 1% higher real wages. Overall, the results provide evidence against a Natural Resource Curse within the U.S.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Hunt Allcott","Daniel Keniston"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx042","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0a8e504fa364c082","title":"Food politics and development","abstract":"Food has become both a pivotal topic in development and a lens through which to integrate and address a range of contemporary global challenges. This review article addresses in particular the interrelationship between food and sustainable, equitable development, arguing that this is fundamentally political. We offer a set of approaches to understanding food politics, each underlain by broader theoretical traditions in power analysis, focused respectively on food interests and incentives; food regimes; food institutions; food innovation systems; food contentions and movements; food discourses, and food socio-natures. Applications of these approaches are then illustrated through a set of problematiques, providing a (selective) overview of some of the major literatures and topics of note in food politics and development. Starting with the role of the state and state-society relations in different forms of food regime, we then consider the role of science and technology (and its discourses) in shaping agricultural and food policy directions before looking in more detail at rural livelihoods in agri-food systems and the politics of inclusive structural transformation. Broadening beyond agri-food systems then brings us to interrogate dominant narratives of nutrition and review literature on the cultural politics of food and eating. A concluding section provides a synthesis across the cases, drawing together the various approaches to power and politics and showing how they might be integrated via an analytical framework which combines plural approaches to describe different pathways of change and intervention, raising critical questions about the overall direction and diversity of these pathways, their distributional effects, and the extent of democratic inclusion in decisions about food pathways. We find this extended ‘4D’ approach helpful in highlighting current food systems inequities and the political options for future food systems change, and conclude by considering how it might be harnessed as part of a future interdisciplinary, engaged research agenda.","wordCount":301,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Melissa Leach","Nicholas Nisbett","Lídia Cabral","Jody Harris","Naomi Hossain","John Thompson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Food_politics_and_development/23894109","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0a99aee5245d5bd3","title":"Sparse Signals in the Cross‐Section of Returns","abstract":"This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling one‐minute‐ahead return forecasts using the entire cross‐section of lagged returns as candidate predictors. The LASSO increases both out‐of‐sample fit and forecast‐implied Sharpe ratios. This out‐of‐sample success comes from identifying predictors that are unexpected, short‐lived, and sparse. Although the LASSO uses a statistical rule rather than economic intuition to identify predictors, the predictors it identifies are nevertheless associated with economically meaningful events: the LASSO tends to identify as predictors stocks with news about fundamentals.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["ALEX CHINCO","Adam D. Clark-Joseph","Mao Ye"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12733","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0a9a908bae72f828","title":"The Impact of Medical Cannabis Legalization on Prescription Medication Use and Costs under Medicare Part D","abstract":"In the past 20 years, the drive to legalize medical cannabis has gained national attention with the public and policy makers. However, little is known about whether medical cannabis is being used clinically to any significant degree. Using data on all prescriptions filled by Medicare Part D enrollees in the United States from 2010 to 2015, we find that the use of prescription drugs for which cannabis could serve as a clinical alternative fell significantly once a medical cannabis law (MCL) was put in place. Overall savings to the Medicare program when states implement MCLs are estimated to have been as much as $638.8 million per year by 2015. Counterfactually, if all states had adopted dispensary-based MCLs by 2015, we estimate that programmatic savings would have been between $1.4 and $1.7 billion. The availability of medical cannabis has a significant effect on prescribing patterns and spending under Medicare Part D.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Ashley C. Bradford","W. David Bradford"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699620","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0aaed7302ce09308","title":"Laboratories of Democracy: Policy Experimentation under Decentralization","abstract":"We develop a model of policy experimentation in which the policy decisions of local and national politicians are driven by career concerns. When politicians’ payoffs are convex in their reputation and policy-making is opaque, local politicians experiment by introducing more diverse policies than national politicians do. The welfare implications of decentralization depend on homogeneity between districts. In particular, learning about policies is greater under decentralization if and only if the districts are sufficiently homogeneous. The model delivers novel testable hypotheses. Decentralization should be positively correlated with more diverse (uniform) local policies among countries with opaque (transparent) policymaking.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Cheng Chen","Christopher Li"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160257","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ada7ebe770658ba","title":"CO<sub>2</sub>emissions in Australia: economic and non-economic drivers in the long-run","abstract":"Australia has sustained a relatively high economic growth rate since the 1980s compared to other developed countries. Per capita CO2 emissions tend to be highest amongst OECD countries, creating new challenges to cut back emissions towards international standards. This research explores the long-run dynamics of CO2 emissions, economic and population growth along with the effects of globalization tested as contributing factors. We find economic growth is not emission-intensive in Australia, while energy consumption is emissions intensive. Second, in an environment of increasing population, our findings suggest Australia needs to be energy efficient at the household level, creating appropriate infrastructure for sustainable population growth. High population growth and open migration policy can be detrimental in reducing CO2 emissions. Finally, we establish globalized environment has been conducive in combating emissions. In this respect, we establish the beneficial effect of economic globalization compared to social and political dimensions of globalization in curbing emissions.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Muhammad Shahbaz","Mita Bhattacharya","Khalid Ahmed"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1217306","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0af609976622c3f5","title":"Major customers and carbon footprints along the supply chain","abstract":"This paper examines whether major corporate customers curb corporate carbon emissions along the supply chain. We show that suppliers with a more concentrated customer base have significantly lower carbon emissions. The results are robust to alternative measures of carbon emissions and customer concentration, alternative sample, alternative explanation, and various approaches to mitigate endogeneity concerns. The effect is more pronounced when major customers have made emission-reduction commitment, when they are exposed to greater climate regulatory shocks and risks, and when they become more concerned about regulatory scrutiny. Moreover, the curbing effect of major customers on supplier carbon emissions is stronger when customers have lower switching costs and stronger bargaining power over suppliers. We show that one way through which suppliers reduce emissions is by adopting green technologies. Our study highlights the role of major customers in facilitating the transition to a low-carbon economy through decarbonization along the supply chain.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Saiying Deng","Tinghua Duan","Frank Weikai Li","Xiaoling Pu"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102752","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0b0393710024d9aa","title":"The Impact of Insurance Provision on Household Production and Financial Decisions","abstract":"This paper uses a natural experiment to study the impact of an agricultural insurance program on household production, borrowing, and saving behavior. The empirical strategy includes difference-in-differences and triple difference estimations. The results show that insurance provision increases the insured crop production by 16 percent and raises borrowing by 29 percent. Interestingly, it does not affect total household savings; however, it does affect the relative proportion of flexible-term savings. Furthermore, effects on production and savings persist in the long run, while effects on borrowing are significant in only the medium run. Lastly, calibration results suggest that the policy is both welfare improving and cost-effective.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Jing Cai"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20130371","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b10556bb099e964","title":"The Decline, Rebound, and Further Rise in SNAP Enrollment: Disentangling Business Cycle Fluctuations and Policy Changes","abstract":"One-in-seven Americans received benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in 2011, an all-time high. We analyze changes in program enrollment over the past two decades, quantifying the contributions of unemployment and state policy changes. Using instrumental variables to address measurement error, we estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment raises enrollment by 15 percent. Unemployment explains most of the decrease in enrollment in the late 1990s, state policy changes explain more of the increase in enrollment in the early 2000s, and unemployment explains most of the increase in enrollment in the aftermath of the Great Recession.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Peter Ganong","Jeffrey B. Liebman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b36779ba80c8327","title":"Does poverty negate the impact of social norms on cheating?","abstract":"Cheating such as corruption and tax evasion is prevalent in the developing world; therefore, many interventions have been undertaken to reduce cheating in developing countries. Although some field evidence shows that poverty is correlated with cheating, the causal effect of poverty on cheating in the field and the effectiveness of interventions for financially constrained people remain an open question. We present results from a lab-in-the-field experiment with low-income rice farmers in Thailand (N = 568), in which we, first, investigate the causal effect of poverty on cheating and, second, test whether poverty affects the effectiveness of a social-norm intervention to reduce cheating. We show poverty itself does not affect willingness to cheat. However, although a social-norm-reminder intervention reduced cheating when the population was richer (after harvest), it had no effect when the population was poorer (before harvest). Our results suggest that the timing of interventions to change behavior might matter.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Suparee Boonmanunt","Agne Kajackaite","Stephan Meier"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.09.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0b3c39e6a96927f1","title":"Peace in an unequal world? Experimental evidence on the relationship between inequality and conflict in a guns-vs-butter setting","abstract":"This study addresses the emergence of (unarmed) peace and investments in arms within a guns-vs-butter conflict setting. We introduce a novel feature within the conflict game and separate the decision to start a conflict and the investment in arms, following the theoretical framework of Garfinkel and Syropoulos (2021). Based on this model we experimentally examine the emergence of peace while varying resource inequality among conflicting parties. We find that inequality leads to more conflicts and higher investments in arms. Despite these trends, achieving a state of unarmed peace is rarely observed in both treatments. Our results highlight the critical role of trust in attaining peaceful outcomes and show that armed peace, although not an optimal strategy in either treatment, is one of the most frequently chosen decisions.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Alexandra Baier","Sophia Seelos","Thomas Rittmannsberger"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.06.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0b4346039e06fa91","title":"Investors’ fear and herding in the stock market","abstract":"In this article, we examine herding in three developed stock markets testing for the impact of investors’ ‘fear’ on herding estimations. To this end, we employ daily data of all listed stocks from USA, UK and Germany from January 2004 to July 2014. We examine herd behaviour applying the cross-sectional dispersion approach. Moreover, we investigate the asymmetric herding behaviour under different market states and sub-periods. The stock markets under examination provide comparable implied volatility indices which are used as a proxy for fear. As a result, apart from the standard herding estimations within and across markets, we also augment the benchmark model with the fear indicator. Our empirical results document the statistically significant impact of fear on herding estimations. Moreover, there is evidence of cross market herding as well as evidence of herding in the UK during specific sub-periods.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Fotini Economou","Christis Hassapis","Νικόλαος Φίλιππας"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1436145","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b4b8b826bf3ff8c","title":"Interaction of public and private employment: Evidence from a German government move","abstract":"We use the German government move from Bonn to Berlin in 1999 to explore the interaction between public and private sector employment within a local labor market. Our findings show a positive effect of public sector expansion on private sector employment, with a local multiplier of 1.32-1.35, mainly driven by the service sector. The policy impact is highly localized, strongest within 300 meters of a relocation site, and evident one year after the relocation. Three quarters of new private sector jobs were created by establishments that did not exist before 1998. These newly created jobs disproportionally employ women, younger workers, individuals in managerial and professional roles, and those with lower levels of education.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Giulia Faggio","Teresa Schlüter","Philipp vom Berge"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104084","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0b4cf545a8ed7884","title":"Potential Competition and the 2023 Merger Guidelines","abstract":"The 2023 Merger Guidelines devote a section to mergers that eliminate potential competition. This is an important contribution because agency guidelines have not discussed the subject in detail for almost 50 years. The new Guidelines follow the traditional distinction that has been upheld in the courts between a merger’s effects on incumbent responses to perceived potential competition and the potential effects of actual entry. Antitrust enforcement should assess both possible aspects of potential competition in an integrated fashion because harm from a merger occurs not infrequently from the elimination of actual potential competition; and when the elimination of perceived potential competition has an effect, it often occurs along with and as a consequence of the elimination of actual potential competition. Economic studies suggest that the benefits of perceived potential competition are less than some courts have assumed and that the benefits of actual potential competition are greater. Rather than focusing solely on the probability of harm from the elimination of a potential entrant, antitrust enforcement should adopt a sliding scale that takes into account the magnitude of the benefits for consumers or suppliers if entry is successful. Mergers with potential and nascent competitors can be harmful even if the probability of actual entry absent the merger is small.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Richard J. Gilbert","A. Douglas Melamed"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09964-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0b54f12e17bf5e54","title":"Workers beneath the Floodgates: Low-Wage Import Competition and Workers’ Adjustment","abstract":"Using employee-employer matched data, I analyze the impact of a low-wage trade shock on manufacturing workers in a high-wage country, Denmark, and how they adjust to the shock over a decade. I derive causal effects by exploiting the dismantling of the Multifiber Arrangement quotas on products from China upon its WTO accession as a quasi-natural experiment and use within-industry, within-occupation heterogeneity in workers’ exposure to this shock. I find significant negative long-run effects on earnings and employment trajectories and identify job instability in the service sector as a main adjustment friction, concentrated among workers with manufacturing-specific education and occupation. The results establish the importance of specific human capital in trade adjustment and provide evidence of skill upgrading as workers rebuild lost human capital through education.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Hâle Utar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00727","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0b5b9d40bb1382c0","title":"The impact of impact investing","abstract":"The change in the cost of capital that results from a divestiture strategy can be closely approximated by a simple function of three parameters: (1) the fraction of socially conscious capital, (2) the fraction of targeted firms in the economy and (3) the return correlation between the targeted firms and the rest of the stock market. When calibrated to current data, we demonstrate that the impact on the cost of capital is too small to meaningfully affect real investment decisions. We then derive the conditions that would be required for the strategy to have a meaningful impact. We empirically corroborate our theoretical results by studying firm changes in ESG status and are unable to detect an impact of ESG divestiture strategies on the cost of capital of treated firms. Our results suggest that to have impact, instead of divesting, socially conscious investors should invest and exercise their rights of control to change corporate policy.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Jonathan Berk","Jules H. van Binsbergen"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103972","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0b5e7167f2d925c1","title":"House price responses to a national property tax reform","abstract":"We show that house prices in general did not respond to a substantial cut in the national property tax in Sweden. The estimates are based on rich register data covering more than 100,000 sales over a time period of two and a half years. Because the Swedish property tax is national and thus unrelated to local public goods, our setting is ideal for causal identification of the property tax on house prices. We observe price increases only in a small segment of the market containing properties with very high tax values. We discuss, but can admittedly not empirically discriminate between, several potential explanations for why we find no evidence of capitalization except for the top segment of the market.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Mikael Elinder","Lovisa Persson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0b61badb51b0dc94","title":"Dynamic competition in deceptive markets","abstract":"In many deceptive markets, firms design contracts to exploit mistakes of naive consumers. These contracts also attract less‐profitable sophisticated consumers. I study such markets when firms compete repeatedly. By observing their customers' usage patterns, firms acquire private information about their level of naiveté. First, I find that private information on naiveté mitigates competition and is of great value even with homogeneous products. Second, competition between initially symmetrically informed firms is mitigated when firms can educate naifs about mistakes. In an analogous setting without naifs, the second result does not occur; the first result occurs when firms cannot disclose fees.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Johannes Johnen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12318","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b62a61162aad456","title":"Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low‐wage Jobs","abstract":"We extend the task-based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that increases in the cost of low-wage labor, via minimum wage hikes, lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manually-routine or non-routine low-wage occupations. This suggests that low-wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution. While the short-run employment consequence of this reshuffling on individual workers is economically small, due to concurrent employment growth in other low-wage jobs, workers previously employed in cognitively routine jobs experience relative wage losses.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Daniel Aaronson","Brian J. Phelan"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12529","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b6714556fc49d31","title":"Life is too short to be small: An experiment on mortality salience and prosocial behavior","abstract":"We study how mortality salience influences people's time preference and prosocial behavior in a laboratory experiment. We made mortality salient through priming subjects in the treatment group with grid tasks, and studied its impact on altruistic giving in an Andreoni-Miller dictator game. We found that the priming made subjects think bigger, and become more concerned with the overall social welfare, though it did not necessarily make them care more about their opponents' well-being per se. Subjects in the treatment group became more altruistic only when the price of giving is low. We built a two-period model to explain the mechanism of the findings. Our model showed that the priming altered altruistic giving through changing the subjects' time preference and social preference parameters. Finally, we strengthened our findings by showing that the priming didn't change subjects' mood.","wordCount":136,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Te Bao","Xun Li","Congling Xia"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102191","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0b69f6f55322a42d","title":"Using Gossips to Spread Information: Theory and Evidence from Two Randomized Controlled Trials","abstract":"Can we identify highly central individuals in a network without collecting network data, simply by asking community members? Can seeding information via such nominated individuals lead to significantly wider diffusion than via randomly chosen people, or even respected ones? In two separate large field experiments in India, we answer both questions in the affirmative. In particular, in 521 villages in Haryana, we provided information on monthly immunization camps to either randomly selected individuals (in some villages) or to individuals nominated by villagers as people who would be good at transmitting information (in other villages). We find that the number of children vaccinated every month is 22% higher in villages in which nominees received the information. We show that people’s knowledge of who are highly central individuals and good seeds can be explained by a model in which community members simply track how often they hear gossip about others. Indeed, we find in a third data set that nominated seeds are central in a network sense, and are not just those with many friends or in powerful positions.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Abhijit Banerjee","Arun G. Chandrasekhar","Esther Duflo","Matthew O. Jackson"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz008","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b82e7b0a9db8ed8","title":"Severe Air Pollution and Labor Productivity: Evidence from Industrial Towns in China","abstract":"We examine day-to-day fluctuations in worker-level output at two manufacturing sites in China. Ambient fine-particle (PM2.5) pollution is severe but significantly variable, largely due to exogenous atmospheric ventilation. We obtain an insignificant immediate output response from concurrent (same-shift) variation in particle pollution. We then allow worker outcomes to respond to day-to-day variation in pollution with up to 30 days of delay. We uncover statistically significant adverse output effects from more prolonged exposure, but effects are not large. A substantial + 10 μg/m 3 PM2.5 variation sustained over 25 days reduces daily output by 1 percent.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jiaxiu He","Haoming Liu","Alberto Salvo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170286","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b9a66a436aaf51c","title":"Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks","abstract":"This paper investigates how a central bank digital currency can be expected to impact a monopolistic banking sector. The paper’s framework of analysis combines the Diamond (1965) model of government debt with the Klein (1971) and Monti (1972) model of a monopoly bank. The paper finds that the introduction of a central bank digital currency has no detrimental effect on bank lending activity and may, in some circumstances, even serve to promote it. Competitive pressure leads to a higher monopoly deposit rate which reduces profit but expands deposit funding through greater financial inclusion and desired saving. An appeal to available theory and evidence suggests that a properly designed central bank digital currency is not likely to threaten financial stability.","wordCount":119,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["David Andolfatto"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa073","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0b9abc994d1a3f5f","title":"The relationship between public listing, context, multi-nationality and internal CSR","abstract":"Are MNEs more socially responsible, and where is this more likely to occur? Are firms less responsible in emerging or transitional economies, and what impact does the dominant national corporate governance regime have? We explore the association between public listing and the existence of a CSR code within specific institutional settings and assess whether MNEs are any different to their local counterparts, based on an internationally comparative survey. We find that listed firms as well as firms from civil law countries are more likely to have CSR statements. MNEs are also more likely to have CSR statements, independent of their country of origin. While we find consistent evidence of a correlation between the existence of a CSR statement and investment in staff training, the correlation between the former and employee-friendly HRM is weaker.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Marc Goergen","Salim Chahine","Geoffrey Wood","Chris Brewster"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.11.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0ba000bee7c1be08","title":"Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?","abstract":"We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially increased over the past three decades, peaking during the Great Recession before stabilizing – a timing that aligns well with observed trends in globalization and slowbalization dynamics. Cross-country analysis and counterfactual simulations suggest that the estimated amplification of the spillover effects over time has been primarily driven by the surge in trade integration, while rising financial integration has contributed only modestly.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Maximilian Boeck","Lorenzo Mori"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0bc8f1cb1a56f2e9","title":"House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices","abstract":"We document a causal response of local retail prices to changes in local house prices, with elasticities of 15–20 percent across housing cycles. These price responses are largest in zip codes with many homeowners and are driven by changes in markups rather than local costs. We argue that markups rise with house prices because greater housing wealth reduces homeowners’ demand elasticity, and firms raise markups in response. Shopping data confirm that house price changes affect the price sensitivity of homeowners, but not that of renters. Our evidence suggests a new source of business cycle markup variation.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Johannes Stroebel","Joseph Vavra"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701422","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0bcbd4f1e6017212","title":"Common enrollment in school choice","abstract":"Increasingly, more school districts across the United States are using centralized admissions for charter, magnet, and neighborhood schools in a common enrollment system. We first show that across all school‐participation patterns, full participation in the common (or unified) enrollment system leads to the most preferred outcome for students. Second, we show that, in general, participation by all schools may not be achievable because schools have incentives to stay out. This may explain why some districts have not managed to attain full participation. We also consider some specific settings where full participation can be achieved and propose two schemes that can be used by policymakers to achieve full participation in general settings.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Mehmet Ekmekçi","M. Bumin Yenmez"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2631","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-0bcbdad430e120f7","title":"Economic outcomes for transgender people and other gender minorities in the United States: First estimates from a nationally representative sample","abstract":"We provide the literature's first estimates of economic outcomes for transgender people and other gender minorities in the United States using nationally representative data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey which identifies over 9,400 individuals from 2021 to 2022 who are non‐cisgender (i.e., whose current gender does not align with their sex assigned at birth). We find that non‐cisgender individuals are significantly less likely to be employed, have higher poverty rates, are more likely to have public health insurance, and report greater food insecurity compared to otherwise similar cisgender individuals. We also find that non‐cisgender Black individuals fare significantly worse than non‐cisgender white individuals. Our results demonstrate the precarious economic position of gender minority populations in America.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Christopher S. Carpenter","Maxine J. Lee","Laura Nettuno"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12594","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0bdb5dc3c68e9927","title":"The intrinsic value of choice: The propensity to under-delegate in the face of potential gains and losses","abstract":"Human beings are often faced with a pervasive problem: whether to make their own decision or to delegate the decision task to someone else. Here, we test whether people are inclined to forgo monetary rewards in order to retain agency when faced with choices that could lead to losses and gains. In a simple choice task, we show that participants choose to pay in order to control their own payoff more than they should if they were to maximize monetary rewards and minimize monetary losses. This tendency cannot be explained by participants' overconfidence in their own ability, as their perceived ability was elicited and accounted for. Nor can the results be explained by lack of information. Rather, the results seem to reflect an intrinsic value for choice, which emerges in the domain of both gains and of losses. Moreover, our data indicate that participants are aware that they are making suboptimal choices in the normative sense, but do so anyway, presumably for psychological gains.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Sebastian Bobadilla-Suarez","Cass R. Sunstein","Tali Sharot"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9259-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0be5f15d609423ff","title":"Any port in a storm: Cryptocurrency safe-havens during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"Controlling for the polarity and subjectivity of social media data based on the development of the COVID-19 outbreak, we analyse the relationships between the largest cryptocurrencies and such time-varying realisation as to the scale of the economic shock centralised within the rapidly-escalating pandemic. We find evidence of significant growth in both returns and volumes traded, indicating that large cryptocurrencies acted as a store of value during this period of exceptional financial market stress. Further, cryptocurrency returns are found to be significantly influenced by negative sentiment relating to COVID-19. While not only providing diversification benefits for investors, results suggest that these digital assets acted as a safe-haven similar to that of precious metals during historiccrises.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Shaen Corbet","Yang Hou","Yang Hu","Charles Larkin","Les Oxley"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109377","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0be9e41421992ebc","title":"The Arrival of Fast Internet and Employment in Africa","abstract":"To show how fast Internet affects employment in Africa, we exploit the gradual arrival of submarine Internet cables on the coast and maps of the terrestrial cable network. Robust difference-in-differences estimates from 3 datasets, covering 12 countries, show large positive effects on employment rates—also for less educated worker groups—with little or no job displacement across space. The sample-wide impact is driven by increased employment in higher-skill occupations, but less-educated workers’ employment gain less so. Firm-level data available for some countries indicate that increased firm entry, productivity, and exporting contribute to higher net job creation. Average incomes rise.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Jonas Hjort","Jonas Poulsen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161385","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0bea128c40b8af53","title":"Local Currency Sovereign Risk","abstract":"We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk‐free rate constructed using cross‐currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign‐currency‐denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross‐country correlations, and lower sensitivity to global risk factors. We discuss several major sources of credit spread differentials, including positively correlated credit and currency risk, selective default, capital controls, and various financial market frictions.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Wenxin Du","Jesse Schreger"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0bec3ed6ebfacbc9","title":"Equity risk factors for the long and short run: Pricing and performance at different frequencies","abstract":"This paper introduces a general linear multifactor asset pricing methodology that integrates systematic risk measured at different frequencies into a single pricing equation. Our setup allows for horizon-dependent risk exposures, consistent with the idea that investors with different investment horizons may respond differently to systematic risk. Empirical results show that frequency-specific ICAPM specifications outperform traditional models and attain goodness of fit comparable to benchmark Fama–French factor models. Our frequency-specific ICAPM results show significant prices of risk concentrated at horizons beyond three years. Our approach reveals novel low-frequency pricing information in ICAPM factors, with risk prices broadly consistent with ICAPM theory.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Terri van der Zwan","Erik Hennink","Patrick Tuijp"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101711","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0beccfd9465a50d1","title":"Risky Sexual Behaviours: Biological Markers and Self‐reported Data","abstract":"High‐risk sexual behaviours are generally unobserved and difficult to identify. In this paper, we investigate the accuracy of two risky‐behaviour measures: biomarkers for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and self‐reported data. We build an epidemiological model to assess the relative performance of biomarkers versus self‐reported data. We then suggest an econometric strategy that combines both types of measures to estimate actual unobserved risky sexual behaviours. Using data from the Demographic and Health Survey in 28 countries, we calibrate the model and provide conditions under which self‐reported data are a better proxy for risky sexual behaviours than biomarkers. In countries with low STI prevalence, biomarkers have a higher probability of misclassification than self‐reported answers. We apply our econometric strategy to the data and show that the probability of actual risky behaviour is much higher than the probability of self‐reported risky behaviour and of testing positive for an STI.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Lucia Corno","Áureo de Paula"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12286","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0c110b8e6e1420c7","title":"Equilibrium and social norms","abstract":"Richter-Rubinstein (2020) developed a novel model for social norms, which play an essential role in governing individual behavior in many economic situations. We present a generalization of the Richter-Rubinstein model allowing for an infinite agent space, individualized sets of alternatives, externalities, and intransitive preferences. In addition, we study social welfare properties of feasible Pareto efficient profiles and illustrate the applicability of our results in examples including a centrally planned economy, the classical Walrasian exchange economy, and the formation of social norms.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Robert M. Anderson","Haosui Duanmu"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.08.014","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-0c116cb2d9080cc2","title":"This time it’s different – Generative artificial intelligence and occupational choice","abstract":"Applicant quality declined, particularly for commercial apprenticeships We show the causal influence of the launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in the form of ChatGPT on the search behavior of young people for apprenticeship vacancies. To estimate the short- and medium-term effects, we use a variety of methods, including a difference-in-discontinuity approach exploiting the exogenous nature of the unanticipated launch of ChatGPT in 2022. There is a strong short- and medium-term decline in the intensity of searches for vacancies, indicating a notable reduction in the supply of young people actively seeking apprenticeships and suggesting great uncertainty among the affected cohort. Occupations with a high proportion of cognitive tasks and with high demands on language skills were particularly affected by the decline. Interestingly, the revealed preferences in the search behavior of young job seekers contrasted with previous expert assessments on the automation risks of occupations and aligned with the most recent assessments of the AI and language model exposure of occupations – before these new assessments existed. Notably, while the supply decline did not reduce the number of signed apprenticeship contracts, we find evidence of declining applicant quality, particularly for commercial employees, the most widely offered apprenticeship in Switzerland.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Daniel Göller","Christian Gschwendt","Stefan C. Wolter"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102746","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0c1537d3951c84f1","title":"Prices and heterogeneous search costs","abstract":"We study price formation in a model of consumer search for differentiated products in which consumers have heterogeneous search costs. We provide conditions under which a pure‐strategy symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and is unique. Search costs affect two margins—the intensive search margin (or search intensity) and the extensive search margin (or the decision to search rather than to not search at all). These two margins affect the elasticity of demand in opposite directions and whether lower search costs result in higher or lower prices depends on the properties of the search cost density.","wordCount":93,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["José L. Moraga‐González","Zsolt Sándor","Matthijs R. Wildenbeest"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12170","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-0c1e58f6c44a0f79","title":"Carbon Taxation and Greenflation: Evidence from Europe and Canada","abstract":"This paper studies the effects of carbon pricing on inflation dynamics. We construct a sample of carbon taxes implemented in Europe and Canada over three decades and estimate the response of inflation and price components to carbon pricing. Our empirical results suggest that carbon taxes did not significantly increase inflation, with dynamic effects estimated around zero in most specifications. Instead we find support for relative price changes, increasing the cost of energy but leaving the price of other goods and services unaffected. This is consistent with previous findings on the limited aggregate economic costs of carbon taxes. Based on the cross-section of taxes in Europe, we provide suggestive evidence that the response of inflation was especially muted in countries with revenue-neutral carbon taxes and autonomous central banks that can accommodate potential inflationary pressure associated with carbon pricing.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Maximilian Konradt","Beatrice Weder di Mauro"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad020","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0c1f0448d8513b30","title":"Bayesian games with a continuum of states","abstract":"We show that every Bayesian game with purely atomic types has a measurable Bayesian equilibrium when the common knowledge relation is smooth. Conversely, for any common knowledge relation that is not smooth, there exists a type space that yields this common knowledge relation and payoffs such that the resulting Bayesian game does not have any Bayesian equilibrium. We show that our smoothness condition also rules out two paradoxes involving Bayesian games with a continuum of types: the impossibility of having a common prior on components when a common prior over the entire state space exists, and the possibility of interim betting/trade even when no such trade can be supported ex ante.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Ziv Hellman","Yehuda John Levy"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1544","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-0c2f326f15125848","title":"Dominant Currency Paradigm","abstract":"We propose a “dominant currency paradigm” with three key features: dominant currency pricing, pricing complementarities, and imported inputs in production. We test this paradigm using a new dataset of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs that covers 91 percent of world trade, as well as detailed firm-product-country data for Colombian exports and imports. In strong support of the paradigm we find that (i) noncommodities terms-of-trade are uncorrelated with exchange rates; (ii) the dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions, and this effect is increasing in the share of imports invoiced in dollars; (iii) US import volumes are significantly less sensitive to bilateral exchange rates, compared to other countries’ imports; (iv) a 1 percent US dollar appreciation against all other currencies predicts a 0.6 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. We characterize the transmission of, and spillovers from, monetary policy shocks in this environment.","wordCount":176,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Gita Gopinath","Emine Boz","Camila Casas","Federico J. Díez","Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas","Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20171201","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0c365742da32034b","title":"Inference and forecasting for continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes","abstract":"This paper develops likelihood-based methods for estimation, inference, model selection, and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes. The full likelihood of integer-valued trawl processes is, in general, highly intractable, motivating the use of composite likelihood methods, where we consider the pairwise likelihood in lieu of the full likelihood. Maximizing the pairwise likelihood of the data yields an estimator of the parameter vector of the model, and we prove consistency and, in the short memory case, asymptotic normality of this estimator. When the underlying trawl process has long memory, the asymptotic behaviour of the estimator is more involved; we present some partial results for this case. The pairwise approach further allows us to develop probabilistic forecasting methods, which can be used to construct the predictive distribution of integer-valued time series. In a simulation study, we document the good finite sample performance of the likelihood-based estimator and the associated model selection procedure. Lastly, the methods are illustrated in an application to modelling and forecasting financial bid–ask spread data, where we find that it is beneficial to carefully model both the marginal distribution and the autocorrelation structure of the data.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Mikkel Bennedsen","Asger Lunde","Neil Shephard","Almut E. D. Veraart"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://pure.au.dk/portal/en/publications/e84f274f-e9ea-4d20-a98f-b754dbe947ba","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0c41085ced612697","title":"Reference Income Effects in the Determination of Equivalence Scales Using Income Satisfaction Data","abstract":"We estimate household equivalence scales, i.e. the needs of additional adults and children relative to a single adult, using income satisfaction data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel. We extend previous studies applying this approach by taking reference income into account. This allows separating needs‐based from reference effects in the determination of income satisfaction. We show that this adjustment helps to overcome a bias causing an overestimation of adults’ and an underestimation of children’s needs‐based equivalence weights. Our results indicate that controlling for income comparisons substantially increases children’s equivalence weight relative to that of adults.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Melanie Borah","Carina Keldenich","Andreas Knabe"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12386","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0c412384ec41ce64","title":"What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?","abstract":"We examine the impact of large-scale asset purchases of government bonds on real GDP and the CPI in the United Kingdom and the United States with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2009 M3 to 2013 M5. We identify an asset purchase shock with sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the impulse response analysis in previous work, the reactions of real GDP and CPI are left unrestricted, so as formally to test whether these variables are affected by asset purchases. We then explore the transmission channels to the domestic economy and emerging markets. Our results suggest that asset purchases have a statistically significant effect on real GDP with a purchase of 1% of GDP leading to a .36% (.18%) rise in real GDP and a .38% (.3%) rise in CPI for the United States (United Kingdom). In the United States, this policy lowers yields on long-term government bonds and the real exchange rate. In the United Kingdom, on other hand, interest rate futures and measures of financial market uncertainty are more affected. There is also some evidence that emerging market sovereign bond and corporate bond spreads decline, with industrial production rising in response a positive asset purchase shock in either country.","wordCount":204,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Martin Weale","Tomasz Wieladek"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.03.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0c4487c34307221d","title":"The Power of Social Pensions: Evidence from China's New Rural Pension Scheme","abstract":"This paper utilizes the county-by-county rollout of China's New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) and finds that, among age-eligible people, the pension scheme leads to higher household income and food expenditure, less farmwork, better health, and lower mortality. In addition, the NRPS shifts age-ineligible adults from farmwork to nonfarmwork but does not significantly affect their income, expenditure, or health. No significant evidence shows that the NRPS affects private transfers or health behaviors. These findings provide relevant evidence of the impacts of social pensions on individual behaviors and welfare for developing countries today and developed countries in the past.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Wei Huang","Chuanchuan Zhang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170789","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0c62bae915cc0705","title":"Economic freedom and migration: A metro <scp>area‐level</scp> analysis","abstract":"We examine the determinants of intra‐U.S. population migration at the metropolitan area level (MSA), with an emphasis on the presence of policies that are consistent with economic freedom. We are the first to produce a multivariate regression analysis of migration and economic freedom at the local level. Combining a 1993–2014 unbalanced panel of MSA‐to‐MSA migration data from the Internal Revenue Service with a new economic freedom index for U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that a 10% increase in economic freedom of a destination MSA, relative to the economic freedom of an origin MSA, was associated with a 27.4% increase in net migration from the origin MSA to the destination MSA. If we use mean net migration flows as a benchmark, we would expect a 10% increase in relative economic freedom to increase net migration to the destination MSA by 22 workers per year from each other MSA.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Imran Arif","Adam J. Hoffer","Dean Stansel","Donald J. Lacombe"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12437","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0c64a53c3c6d58e0","title":"The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of industrial robots on jobs. We combine data on robot adoption and occupations by industry in thirty-seven countries for the period from 2005 to 2015. We exploit differences across industries in technical feasibility – defined as the industry's share of tasks replaceable by robots – to identify the impact of robot usage on employment. The data allow us to differentiate effects by the routine-intensity of employment. We find that a rise in robot adoption relates significantly to a fall in the employment share of routine manual task-intensive jobs. This relation is observed in high-income countries, but not in emerging market and transition economies.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Gaaitzen J. de Vries","Elisabetta Gentile","Sébastien Miroudot","Konstantin M. Wacker"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101885","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0c7b131cc6a3be7d","title":"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago","abstract":"We present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth. We study a program called Becoming a Man (BAM), developed by the nonprofit Youth Guidance, in two RCTs implemented in 2009–2010 and 2013–2015. In the two studies participation in the program reduced total arrests during the intervention period by 28–35%, reduced violent-crime arrests by 45–50%, improved school engagement, and in the first study where we have follow-up data, increased graduation rates by 12–19%. The third RCT tested a program with partially overlapping components carried out in the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center (JTDC), which reduced readmission rates to the facility by 21%. These large behavioral responses combined with modest program costs imply benefit-cost ratios for these interventions from 5-to-1 up to 30-to-1 or more. Our data on mechanisms are not ideal, but we find no positive evidence that these effects are due to changes in emotional intelligence or social skills, self-control or “grit,” or a generic mentoring effect. We find suggestive support for the hypothesis that the programs work by helping youth slow down and reflect on whether their automatic thoughts and behaviors are well suited to the situation they are in, or whether the situation could be construed differently.","wordCount":222,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Sara Heller","Anuj Shah","Jonathan Guryan","Jens Ludwig","Sendhil Mullainathan","Harold A. Pollack"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0c87db3f43670f21","title":"Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S.","abstract":"Governments want to know how effective COVID-19 anti-contagion policies and implemented economic stimulus measures have been to plan their short-run interventions. We condition on the state of the pandemic to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic stimulus policies on the excess unemployment insurance claims in the United States. We focus on weekly data between February 2020 and January 2021 and motivate our analysis by the theoretical framework of the second-wave SIR-macro type models to build a panel Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) specification. Non-pharmaceutical interventions become effective immediately and impact the labor market negatively. Economic stimulus takes about a month to turn effective and only partially eases the economic welfare losses. Health-related restrictive measures are primarily driven by the state of the pandemic. Economic support policies depend predominantly on the reaction of the labor market rather than the severity of the pandemic itself.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Theologos Dergiades","Costas Milas","Theodore Panagiotidis"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105891","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0c8df7754948ebca","title":"Identifying the essential ingredients to literacy and numeracy improvement: Teacher professional development and coaching, student textbooks, and structured teachers’ guides","abstract":"Several rigorously evaluated programs have recently shown positive effects on early literacy and numeracy outcomes in developing countries. However, these programs have not been designed to evaluate which ingredients of the interventions are most essential to improve literacy outcomes. Policy makers therefore lack evidence as to whether program ingredients such as teacher professional development (PD), instructional coaching, learner materials, teachers’ guides, community support, or technology are required for program impact. The Kenya Primary Math and Reading Initiative was a randomized controlled trial that compared three treatment groups with specific ingredients and a control group. Using literacy and numeracy outcome measures for grades 1 and 2, we evaluated the benefits of the following ingredients: (1) teacher PD and teacher instructional support and coaching; (2) revised student books in literacy and numeracy, at a 1:1 ratio, added to PD and instructional support; and (3) structured teacher lesson plans added to student books, PD, and instructional support. We found that two of the three combinations of ingredients had statistically significant positive impacts on learning outcomes. The results showed that the third combination—PD, teacher instructional support and coaching, 1:1 student books, and structured teacher lesson plans—was most effective. A cost-effectiveness analysis on the ingredients showed that the option of PD and instructional support, 1:1 revised books, and teachers’ guides was the most expensive, but that the additional impact on learning made this the most cost-effective intervention. This study rigorously analyzes which ingredients for literacy and numeracy improvement would be most effective for overall impact, and suggests to policy makers that careful decisions regarding program ingredients will lead to more effectively designed and implemented interventions to improve learning in developing countries.","wordCount":276,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Benjamin Piper","Stephanie Simmons Zuilkowski","Margaret M. Dubeck","Evelyn Jepkemei","Simon King"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.01.018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0c98f639240711ba","title":"Governments’ Late Payments and Firms’ Survival: Evidence from the European Union","abstract":"Outstanding payments in commercial transactions, if delayed beyond the agreed period of time, can engender a range of negative externalities and expose firms to severe liquidity risks. In this study we examine to what extent stricter regulations addressing payment backlogs, brought about by the EU directive on late payments, have affected firms’ performance. We focus on government-to-business activities and on the firms’ responses to the introduction of these regulations. Our evidence suggests that firms’ exit rates fall relatively more in sectors that sell a larger fraction of their output to the government. We document more pronounced effects in sectors with a large share of small firms, for countries characterized by longer payment delays, and for countries with high levels of perceived corruption. Taken together, our findings indicate that more discipline in governments’ payment terms can have considerable effects on economic activity.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Maurizio Conti","Leandro Elia","Antonella Rita Ferrara","Massimiliano Ferraresi"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713502","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ca0f8c0eb877a44","title":"Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time","abstract":"We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country’s real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error-correction models relating real rates to various drivers, imposing some structure informed by the model. Empirical results confirm global factors and domestic demographics are robust determinants of real rates. Alternative specifications highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying financial integration and a broad set of real rate drivers. Both model and empirical results suggest demographic trends explain a meaningful share of the global decline in real rates. Given projections, demographics should continue to exert downward pressure on real rates.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Carlos Carvalho","Andrea Ferrero","Felipe Mazin","Fernanda Nechio"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","I","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0ca47d38735ad29b","title":"Did raising doing business scores boost GDP?","abstract":"We use the time series variation in the World Bank’s “distance to frontier” estimates of the ease of doing business to assess the effects of changes in this variable on real GDP per capita. The use of Vector Autoregression techniques allows us to identify shocks to the Doing Business scores that are initially uncorrelated with GDP, thus addressing an important endogeneity problem that affects the cross-sectional literature on this topic. We report a robust finding that improvements in Doing Business scores have at least a temporary negative impact on GDP and find little evidence for a positive effect in the years following these improvements.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Tamanna Adhikari","Karl Whelan"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.04.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0ca86f9ad153eef9","title":"School Spending and Student Outcomes: Evidence from Revenue Limit Elections in Wisconsin","abstract":"This study examines the impacts of two distinct types of school spending on student outcomes. State-imposed revenue limits cap the total amount of revenue that a school district in Wisconsin can raise unless the district holds a referendum asking voters to exceed the cap. Importantly, Wisconsin law requires districts to hold separate referenda for operational and capital expenditures, which allows for estimating their independent effects. Leveraging close elections in a dynamic regression discontinuity framework, I find that increases in operational spending have substantial positive effects on test scores, dropout rates, and postsecondary enrollment, but additional capital expenditures have little impact.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Enrique Barón"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200226","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0cb0989373e1c249","title":"On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: Evidence from help to buy","abstract":"We take advantage of two spatial discontinuities in Britain's Help to Buy (HtB) scheme to explore the effectiveness and distributional implications of mortgage credit expansion policies. Employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design, we find that HtB significantly increased house prices and had no detectable effect on construction volumes in severely supply constrained and unaffordable Greater London. Conversely, HtB did increase construction numbers without a noticeable effect on prices near the English/Welsh border, an affordable area with comparably lax supply conditions. While HtB did not help would-be-buyers in already unaffordable areas, it boosted the financial performance of developers participating in the scheme.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Felipe Carozzi","Christian A. L. Hilber","Xiaolun Yu"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103611","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0cb2df59a62e7ce3","title":"International Inflation Spillovers through Input Linkages","abstract":"We document that international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multicountry, industry-level data set that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with global input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Raphael Auer","Andrei A. Levchenko","Philip Sauré"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00781","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0cb8bca12aee4cee","title":"The joint impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon emissions and economic performance","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on carbon emissions and economic performance based on a matching methodology exploiting installation-level inclusion criteria combined with difference-in-differences. Installation-level data from national Polluting Emissions Registries in France, Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom point to a reduction in carbon emissions in the order of −10% between 2005 and 2012, in line with existing micro and macro evidence. Meanwhile, firm-level data on the 31 ETS-regulated countries shows that the EU ETS had no significant impact on profits and employment, and led to an increase in regulated firms' revenues and fixed assets. We explore various explanations for these findings.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Antoine Dechezleprêtre","Daniel Nachtigall","Frank Venmans"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102758","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0cbe0a865e7881f5","title":"Consumption heterogeneity and monetary policy in an open economy","abstract":"We incorporate two types of agents (Ricardian versus Keynesian) into a standard open economy macro model. We find that consumption heterogeneity has major implications for the impact of monetary policy shocks, the international transmission mechanism, and the design of optimal monetary policy. With sticky prices, the existence of Keynesian agents causes a spillover of shocks across countries, and leads to the interdependence of optimal monetary targeting rules. In the case of local currency pricing, consumer heterogeneity leads an optimal monetary policy to generate currency misalignment and deviations from the law of one price. Theoretically, there are ranges of household heterogeneity in which monetary policy becomes ineffective, but this depends sensitively on the interaction of aggregate demand and relative price effects.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Sihao Chen","Michael B. Devereux","Kang Shi","Juanyi Xu"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0cdeeb8dba894743","title":"The effect of macroprudential policies on homeownership: Evidence from Switzerland","abstract":"This paper studies how the introduction of macroprudential policies in the Swiss residential mortgage market affected the propensity of households to become homeowners. We exploit a unique administrative data set of individual tax records containing detailed financial and socio-demographic information. We show that the mean share of renter households transitioning into homeownership decreased from 3.4% per year in the five years prior to the introduction of macroprudential policies to 3.0% per year in the five years afterward. This decrease is more pronounced for young and middle-aged households with relatively low income and wealth, suggesting that it is at least partly due to a tightening in borrowing constraints. Moreover, intergenerational transfers in the form of predeath bequests have become more important for homebuying both at the extensive and intensive margin.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Elio Bolliger","Adrian Bruhin","Andreas Fuster","Maja Ganarin"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103749","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0ce1c6918bc46dce","title":"A general method for decomposing the causes of socioeconomic inequality in health","abstract":"We introduce a general decomposition method applicable to all forms of bivariate rank dependent indices of socioeconomic inequality in health, including the concentration index. The technique is based on recentered influence function regression and requires only the application of OLS to a transformed variable with similar interpretation. Our method requires few identifying assumptions to yield valid estimates in most common empirical applications, unlike current methods favoured in the literature. Using the Swedish Twin Registry and a within twin pair fixed effects identification strategy, our new method finds no evidence of a causal effect of education on income-related health inequality.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Gawain Heckley","Ulf‐G. Gerdtham","Gustav Kjellsson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.03.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0cea60e38660c95b","title":"People’s understanding of inflation","abstract":"This paper studies people’s understanding of inflation—their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs-and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new, detailed online survey based on the rich existing literature in economics with two experimental components — a conjoint experiment and an information experiment — to examine how well public views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include government actions, such as increased foreign aid and war-related expenditures, alongside rises in production costs attributed to recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic, oil price fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions. Respondents anticipate many negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision-making. Partisan differences emerge distinctly, with Republicans more likely to attribute inflation to government policies and foresee broader negative outcomes, whereas Democrats anticipate greater inequality effects. Inflation is perceived as an unambiguously negative phenomenon without any potential positive economic correlates. Notably, there is a widespread belief that managing inflation can be achieved without significant trade-offs, such as reducing economic activity or increasing unemployment. These perceptions are hard to move experimentally. In terms of policy responses, there is resistance to monetary tightening, consistent with the perceived absence of trade-offs and the belief that it is unnecessary to reduce economic activity to fight inflation. The widespread misconception that inflation rises following increases in interest rates even leads to support for rate cuts to reduce inflation. There is a clear preference for policies that are perceived to have other benefits, such as reducing government debt in progressive ways or increasing corporate taxes, and for support for vulnerable households, despite potential inflationary effects.","wordCount":278,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Alberto Binetti","Francesco Nuzzi","Stefanie Stantcheva"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103652","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0cecffde02cf341a","title":"How informative are insider trades and analyst recommendations?","abstract":"This study evaluates the interactions between, and informativeness of, insider trading and analyst recommendations. We find that analyst recommendations significantly affect subsequent insider trading, but not vice versa. Surprisingly, in aggregate, insiders buy more shares following analyst downgrades and sell more shares following upgrades. This pattern persists even after controlling for analysts’ momentum and insiders’ contrarian trading preferences. Analysts, in contrast, do not systematically take into account insider trading when revising their recommendations. More importantly, we show that these two information signals complement each other although insider buying could be a singularly strong signal that substitutes the informativeness of analyst recommendations under certain circumstances. Overall, our findings highlight the important dynamics and financial market consequences between the two crucial groups of information providers.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Jim Hsieh","Lilian Ng","Qinghai Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106787","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0cfb5fda15e49dd4","title":"Influencer detection meets network autoregression — Influential regions in the bitcoin blockchain","abstract":"Known as an active global virtual money network, the Bitcoin blockchain, with millions of accounts, has played a continually increasingly important role in fund transition, digital payment, and hedging. We propose a method to Detect Influencers in Network AutoRegressive models (DINAR) via sparse-group regularization to detect regions influencing others across borders. For a granular analysis, we analyse whether the transaction size plays a role in the dynamics of the cross-border transactions in the network. With two-layer sparsity, DINAR enables discovering (1) the active regions with influential impact on the global digital money network and (2) whether changes in the size of the transaction affect the dynamic evolution of Bitcoin transactions. In the analysis of real data of the Bitcoin blockchain from Feb 2012 to December 2021, we find that influence from certain regions is linked to the economic need to use BTC, such as to circumvent sanctions, avoid high inflation, and to carry out transactions through off-shore markets. The effects are robust to different groupings, evaluation periods, and choices of regularization parameters.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Simon Trimborn","Hanqiu Peng","Ying Chen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101529","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d16da67e129c1c7","title":"Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?","abstract":"The effect of the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on wages depends on both the form of aggregate production relationships and the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor. With a conventional production function involving labor, robots, and ordinary capital, an increase in robotic labor can have either a positive or a negative effect on wages. Alternatively, it is possible to estimate the aggregate production relationship without measuring capital or other fixed factors explicitly, using the procedure developed by Houthakker in the 1950s. Houthakker's method is based on the probability distribution of the productivity of the variable factor. Fitting different distributions to cross-sectional data on U.S. productivity, it is shown that if the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor is greater than about 1.9, the burgeoning of AI technologies will cause a decline in aggregate wages, other things equal. For the manufacturing sector, an even smaller human-robot elasticity of substitution is likely to result in declining wages of industrial workers as robots proliferate.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Stephen J. DeCanio"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.08.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0d1aa22548ef4d34","title":"Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending","abstract":"We analyze how firms’ climate change-related regulatory risks affect banks’ lending. Exploiting the Paris Agreement in a difference-in-differences setting, we find that effects depend on how borrowers will be affected by regulation as well as the stringency of the existing regulatory environment where firms are located. Firms that benefit from regulation receive more credit only if located in more stringent regulatory environments. Conversely, firms hurt by regulation receive more credit if located in less stringent environments or if linked to banks with a portfolio tilted towards lending to negatively impacted firms.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Isabella Mueller","Eleonora Sfrappini"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d26f077b5042c81","title":"The pox in Boswell's London: an estimate of the extent of syphilis infection in the metropolis in the 1770s<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"This article provides for the first time a robust quantitative estimate of the amount of syphilis infection in the population of London in the later eighteenth century. A measure of the cumulative incidence of having ever been treated for the pox by the age of 35 is constructed, providing an indicator of over 20 per cent syphilitic infection. The principal primary sources are hospital admissions registers, augmented with an analysis of London's workhouse infirmaries. A range of potentially confounding factors are taken into account, including the contemporary conflation between syphilis and other sexually transmitted infections, patients who shunned hospitals in favour of private treatment, possible double‐counting of patients, institutional patients who may have hailed from outside London, and the complexity of establishing what should constitute the ‘at‐risk’ population of London for this period. Cultural and medical historians have demonstrated considerable pre‐occupation with venereal disease in the texts of the eighteenth century, while demographic and epidemiological historians, lacking any quantitative evidence, have tended to ignore the disease. This article can now demonstrate for the first time just how extensive syphilis was likely to have been and, by doing so, offer an original contribution to major debates in the history of sexuality and the demography of early modern London.","wordCount":207,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Simon Szreter","Kevin Siena"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13000","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d31c9d2a36c3e02","title":"Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment","abstract":"Using a random judge design and panel data from Norway, we estimate that imprisonment discourages further criminal behavior, with reoffense probabilities falling by 29 percentage points and criminal charges dropping by 11 over a 5-year period. Ordinary least squares mistakenly reaches the opposite conclusion. The decline is driven by individuals not working prior to incarceration; these individuals increase participation in employment programs and raise their future employment and earnings. Previously employed individuals experience lasting negative employment effects. These findings demonstrate that time spent in prison with a focus on rehabilitation can be preventive for a large segment of the criminal population.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Manudeep Bhuller","Gordon B. Dahl","Katrine Vellesen Løken","Magne Mogstad"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","K","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705330","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-0d33c17c7c4df33e","title":"Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations","abstract":"We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Shumin Qiu","Claudia Steinwender","Pierre Azoulay"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"A","allJels":["A"],"subfieldLabel":"General Economics / A","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d3ddc69898b65e1","title":"Does calvo meet rotemberg at the zero lower bound?","abstract":"This paper compares the conventional Calvo and Rotemberg price adjustments at the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Although the two pricing mechanisms are equivalent to a first-order approximation around the zero-inflation steady state, they produce very different results, based on a fully-nonlinear method. Specifically, the nominal interest rate hits the ZLB more frequently in the Calvo model than in the Rotemberg model. At the ZLB, deflation is larger and recessions are more severe in the Calvo model. The main reason for the difference in results is that price adjustment costs show up in the resource constraints in the Rotemberg. When they are rebated to the household, the two models behave similarly.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Jianjun Miao","Phuong V. Ngo"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000464","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0d434d80dc74ff69","title":"Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-Risk","abstract":"This paper proposes tests for out-of-sample comparisons of interval forecasts based on parametric conditional quantile models. The tests rank the distance between actual and nominal conditional coverage with respect to the set of conditioning variables from all models, for a given loss function. We propose a pairwise test to compare two models for a single predictive interval. The set-up is then extended to a comparison across multiple models and/or intervals. The limiting distribution varies depending on whether models are strictly non-nested or overlapping. In the latter case, degeneracy may occur. We establish the asymptotic validity of wild bootstrap based critical values across all cases. An empirical application to Growth-at-Risk (GaR) uncovers situations in which a richer set of financial indicators are found to outperform a commonly-used benchmark model when predicting downside risk to economic activity.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Valentina Corradi","Jack Fosten","Daniel Gutknecht"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105490","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d438d297078f7ff","title":"The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union","abstract":"This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes in the European Union between 2000 and 2016. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of real-time estimates of discretionary fiscal adjustments. In particular, exploiting a unique database covering anticipated and unanticipated tax changes, we provide the first narrative panel estimates of output and employment multipliers for tax changes. Our results suggest that medium-term revenue-based output multipliers are in the range of −1.1 to −1.9 for unanticipated tax changes. Preannounced changes, on the other hand, temporarily impact economic activity inversely upon announcement, resulting in a less than one-to-one change in ex post tax receipts, but portray up to one percentage point larger employment responses. Finally, we find evidence of asymmetry between the effects of revenue increasing and decreasing measures in the European Union.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Wouter van der Wielen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.03.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d4d531ed3e4b976","title":"Politico-Economic Regimes and Attitudes: Female Workers under State Socialism","abstract":"This paper investigates whether attitudes are affected by politico-economic regimes. We exploit the efforts of state socialist regimes to promote women's economic inclusion. Using the German partition after World War II, we show that women from East-Germany are more likely to place importance on career success compared to women from West-Germany. Further, the population at large in East Germany is less likely to hold traditional gender role attitudes. Examining possible mechanisms, we find that the change in attitudes under the East German regime was larger in areas where the growth in female employment was larger. A comparison of Eastern versus Western Europe confirms these results.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Pamela Campa","Michel Serafinelli"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00772","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0d51bd18db63f85f","title":"Creditors’ Rights, Threat of Liquidation, and the Labor and Capital Choices of Firms","abstract":"In 2002, India introduced a legal reform that allowed secured creditors to seize and liquidate a defaulter’s assets, thereby strengthening creditors’ rights. We study the impact of the legal change on firms’ real decisions regarding their capital and labor, exploiting variation in their prepolicy proportion of collateralizable assets. We find that firms increased employment and reduced their capital investments. These effects are especially strong for firms in regions with less-efficient courts. Our results are consistent with an increased threat of liquidation for firms following the passage of the law.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Shashwat Alok","Ritam Chaurey","Vasudha Nukala"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720962","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0d5ff009bcd892b5","title":"Secret Two-Part Tariffs and Retailer Risk Aversion","abstract":"This paper studies a manufacturer that offers secret two-part tariffs to multiple retailers that compete in prices. Prior work on this setting has shown that, in equilibrium, wholesale prices equal marginal cost and profits vanish as retailers become undifferentiated. I extend the prior work by introducing demand uncertainty and downstream risk aversion. I show that if merely a single retailer is risk averse, all wholesale prices will lie above marginal cost. Intuitively, the manufacturer provides insurance to the risk-averse retailer by reducing its fixed fee and increasing the wholesale price above cost. The positive upstream margin in turn induces the manufacturer to divert sales toward the risk-averse retailer, which it does by increasing wholesale prices for the risk-neutral retailers as well. Relatedly, downstream risk aversion can increase industry and upstream profits compared to risk neutrality if retailers are close substitutes.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Teis Lunde Lømo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10010-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d6f529d73ba6acb","title":"The Deterrent Effect of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Enforcement Intensity on Illegal Insider Trading: Evidence from Run-up before News Events","abstract":"We examine whether public enforcement of US insider-trading laws affects price discovery. Examining insider-trading civil cases filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from 2003 to 2011, we find that the price impact on insider-trading days is much smaller than the effect documented for the 1980s, consistent with increased fear of prosecution. Moreover, we find that preannouncement anticipatory run-up in comprehensive samples of takeover bids and earnings announcements is negatively related to resource-based measures of public enforcement intensity, which suggests that aggressive SEC enforcement deters illegal activity. In addition, we find that quoted bid-ask spreads are negatively related to the SEC’s enforcement intensity, which suggests that greater enforcement improves liquidity. Moreover, the negative and significant relation between run-up and the SEC’s enforcement intensity persists after controlling for quoted spreads.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Diane Del Guercio","Elizabeth R. Odders-White","Mark J. Ready"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/693563","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0d7a111e93da706f","title":"School Finance Reform and the Distribution of Student Achievement","abstract":"We study the impact of post-1990 school finance reforms, during the so-called “adequacy” era, on absolute and relative spending and achievement in low-income school districts. Using an event study research design that exploits the apparent randomness of reform timing, we show that reforms lead to sharp, immediate, and sustained increases in spending in low-income school districts. Using representative samples from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, we find that reforms cause increases in the achievement of students in these districts, phasing in gradually over the years following the reform. The implied effect of school resources on educational achievement is large.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Julien Lafortune","Jesse Rothstein","Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160567","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0d7fdffa04abc6f7","title":"The Value of Medicaid: Interpreting Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment","abstract":"We develop a set of frameworks for welfare analysis of Medicaid and apply them to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, a Medicaid expansion for low-income, uninsured adults that occurred via random assignment. Across different approaches, we estimate recipient willingness to pay for Medicaid between $0.5 and $1.2 per dollar of the resource cost of providing Medicaid; estimates of the expected transfer Medicaid provides to recipients are relatively stable across approaches, but estimates of its additional value from risk protection are more variable. We also estimate that the resource cost of providing Medicaid to an additional recipient is only 40% of Medicaid's total cost; 60% of Medicaid spending is a transfer to providers of uncompensated care for the low-income uninsured.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Amy Finkelstein","Nathaniel Hendren","Erzo F.P. Luttmer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/702238","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0d85a5ca8c352032","title":"Road expansion, allocative efficiency, and pro-competitive effect of transport infrastructure: Evidence from China","abstract":"This paper exploits the rapid expansion of China’s road infrastructure in the 2000s to empirically investigate the pro-competitive effect of transport infrastructure via the allocative efficiency channel. Dispersion of firm markups is used to gauge allocative efficiency of resources. We address the endogenous provincial road length by instrumenting road using a least-cost path route, and deal with the endogenous timing of road construction by using a network theory algorithm to predict road construction time. Our results show the mass construction of new road infrastructure, by lowering domestic trade costs, can significantly reduce markup dispersion of industries with high reliance on transportation. The baseline estimation indicates that the road expansion in China during 1998–2007 has induced at least 28.8% reduction in markup dispersion. Further analysis by disentangling price and marginal cost indicates that the reduced markup dispersion is primarily caused by the price drop of high-markup firms in the product market instead of cost reduction in the input market. This finding validates the presence of pro-competitive effect of road infrastructure. The heterogeneous analyses show several scenarios in which market competition is strengthened and the pro-competitive effect is more clearly manifested.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Mingqin Wu","Linhui Yu","Junsen Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103050","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0d8997a7c77aa272","title":"Asymmetric price effects on food demand of rural households: Panel evidence from China","abstract":"This study aims at detecting asymmetric price effects on food demand for rural households and compares different specifications for including reference prices in demand models. Different from the standard demand model, asymmetric price effects on food demand imply that households react stronger to price increases than price decreases as compared with the reference price. This study tests for asymmetric price effects on food demand separately for pure consumers and farmers in rural areas for the first time. Using three waves of a rural household panel survey in six poor counties of China, this study shows asymmetric price effects on demand for rice and potatoes for pure consumers, and for pork for farmers. Comparisons of different methods of specifying the reference price in demand models show that the model adding price increase and price decrease terms to the standard demand model has a coherent foundation in demand theory and incorporates both acquisition and transaction utility. Although this model had a slightly better fit to the data than the segmented price model—separating people facing price decreases from people facing price increases—it hardly showed evidence of asymmetric price effects. Asymmetric price effects were mostly found to be significant in the segmented price model. Taking into account asymmetric price effects in food demand analysis uncovers the complexity of the mechanism of price effects on demand under different price change directions and may be helpful in estimating less biased price elasticities. Possible causes of mixed asymmetric price effects for different food items and different types of households are discussed.","wordCount":254,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Jiaqi Huang","Gerrit Antonides","Fengying Nie"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102473","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d929ca7b811cd67","title":"The Impact of College Teaching on Students’ Academic and Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of college teaching on students’ academic achievement and labor market outcomes using administrative data from Bocconi University matched with tax records. The estimation exploits the random allocation of students to teachers in a fixed sequence of compulsory courses. We find that teacher effects on students' academic and labor market outcomes are only mildly positively correlated and that the professors who are best at improving the academic achievement of their students are not always also the ones who boost their earnings the most. For the least able students, the correlation between the academic and labor market effectiveness of teachers turns out to be negative.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Michela Braga","Marco Paccagnella","Michele Pellizzari"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684952","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0d945e8aa81a26a5","title":"Relief from usury: Impact of a self-help group lending program in rural India","abstract":"Provision of low-cost credit to the poor through self-help groups (SHGs) has been embraced as a key poverty-reduction strategy in developing countries, but evidence on the impact of this approach is thin. Using a randomized program rollout over 180 panchayats, we evaluate the impact of a government-led SHG initiative in the Indian state of Bihar. Two years after the start of the program, we find a dramatic increase in SHG membership, borrowing from SHGs, and a corresponding decline in the use of informal credit. Fewer informal lenders are operating in treatment villages, and those who do charge lower interest rates. While these credit market impacts could lead to substantial improvements in economic well-being over time, the short-run impact of the program on such outcomes is modest.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Vivian Hoffmann","Vijayendra Rao","Vaishnavi Surendra","Upamanyu Datta"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102567","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d9c84a9e16c9671","title":"Railways, divergence, and structural change in 19th century England and Wales","abstract":"Railways transformed inland transport during the nineteenth century. In this paper, we study how railways led to local population change and divergence in England and Wales as it underwent dramatic urbanization. We make use of detailed data on railway stations, population, and occupational structure in more than 9000 spatial units. A network of least cost paths based on major towns and the length of the 1851 rail network is also created to address endogeneity. Our instrumental variable estimates show that having a railway station in a locality by 1851 led to significantly higher population growth from 1851 to 1891 and shifted the male occupational structure out of agriculture. Moreover, we estimate that having stations increased population growth more if localities had greater initial population density and for those 3–15 km from stations, they had less growth compared to localities more distant from stations. Overall, we find that railways reinforced the population hierarchy of the early nineteenth century and contributed to further spatial divergence. Their implications for the geographic distribution of population were large.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Dan Bogart","Xuesheng You","Eduard J. Álvarez-Palau","Max Satchell","Leigh Shaw‐Taylor"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103390","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0d9e8cd9eb7e6bf0","title":"Basic versus supplementary health insurance: Access to care and the role of cost effectiveness","abstract":"In a model where patients face budget constraints that make some treatments unaffordable without health insurance, we ask which treatments should be covered by universal basic insurance and which by private voluntary insurance. We argue that next to cost effectiveness, prevalence is important if the government wants to maximize the welfare gain that it gets from its health budget. Conditions are derived under which basic insurance should cover treatments that are mainly used by high risk agents with low income.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jan Boone"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.05.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0da1ae8f45f8e56d","title":"Higher education and the income-fertility nexus","abstract":"Fertility and income are negatively related at the aggregate level. However, evidence from recent periods suggests that increasing income leads to higher fertility at the individual level. In this paper, I provide a simple theory that resolves the apparent contradiction. I consider the education and fertility choices of individuals with different learning abilities. Acquiring higher education requires an investment of time and income. As a result, people with higher education have fewer children but, controlling for the level of education, increasing income leads to higher fertility. Rising income and skill premiums motivate more people to pursue higher education, resulting in a negative income-fertility association at the aggregate level. I investigate the explanatory power of the theory in a model calibrated for the US during 1950–2010.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Holger Strulik"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01017-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0db4d0653e50e3d4","title":"Chameleons: The Misuse of Theoretical Models in Finance and Economics","abstract":"In this paper I discuss how theoretical models in finance and economics are used in ways that make them ‘chameleons’, and how chameleons devalue the intellectual currency and muddy policy debates. A model becomes a chameleon when it is built on assumptions with dubious connections to the real world but nevertheless has conclusions that are uncritically (or not critically enough) applied to understanding our economy. I discuss how chameleons are created and nurtured by the mistaken notion that one should not judge a model by its assumptions, by the unfounded argument that models should have equal standing until definitive empirical tests are conducted, and by misplaced appeals to ‘as if’ arguments, mathematical elegance, subtlety, assumptions that are ‘standard in the literature’, and the need for tractability.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Paul Pfleiderer"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12295","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0dc872e7a4f0db97","title":"Discount rate heterogeneity among older households: a puzzle?","abstract":"We put forward a method for estimating discount rates using wealth and income data. We build consumption from these data using the budget constraint. Consumption transitions yield discount rates by household groups. Applying this technique to a sample of older households, we find a similar distribution to those previously estimated using field data, though with a much lower mean than those found using experiments. Surprisingly, among this older population, patience is negatively correlated with education and numeracy. This goes against the positive correlation found for younger populations in experiments and some field studies. We discuss potential explanations for this result.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Antoine Bozio","Guy Laroque","Cormac O'Dea"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-016-0623-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0dcdfc532418a23d","title":"First do no harm – The impact of financial incentives on dental X-rays","abstract":"This article assesses the impact of dentist remuneration on the incidence of potentially harmful dental X-rays. We use unique panel data which provide details of 1.3 million treatment claims by Scottish NHS dentists made between 1998 and 2007. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity of both patients and dentists we estimate a series of fixed-effects models that are informed by a theoretical model of X-ray delivery and identify the effects on dental X-raying of dentists moving from a fixed salary to fee-for-service and patients moving from co-payment to exemption. We establish that there are significant increases in X-rays when dentists receive fee-for-service rather than salary payments and when patients are made exempt from payment.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Martin Chalkley","Stefan Listl"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.12.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0dd93368c8b47e18","title":"Voting on the threat of exclusion in a public goods experiment","abstract":"Ostracism is practiced by virtually all societies around the world as a means of enforcing cooperation. In this paper, we use a public goods experiment to study whether groups choose to implement an institution that allows for the exclusion of members. We distinguish between a costless exclusion institution and a costly exclusion institution that, if chosen, reduces the endowment of all players. We also provide a comparison with an exclusion institution that is exogenously imposed upon groups. A significant share of the experimental groups choose the exclusion institution, even when it comes at a cost, and the support for the institution increases over time. Average contributions to the public good are significantly higher when the exclusion option is available, not only because low contributors are excluded but also because high contributors sustain a higher cooperation level under the exclusion institution. Subjects who vote in favor of the exclusion institution contribute more than those who vote against it, but only when the institution is implemented. These results are largely inconsistent with standard economic theory but can be better explained by assuming heterogeneous groups in which some players have selfish and others have social preferences.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Astrid Dannenberg","Corina Haita","Sonja Zitzelsberger"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09609-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0ddc96025767935a","title":"The influence of income, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and urbanization on renewable energy investments in G7 countries","abstract":"Renewable energy infrastructure development is seen as critical to solving environmental issues. Nevertheless, researchers have not adequately paid attention to how the socioeconomic and geopolitical environment affects renewable energy investments (REINV), which are important for promoting clean energy. In line with this gap, this research aims to analyze the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR), as well as controlling economic growth (GDP) and urbanization (URB) in G7 countries by considering their leading role in both economic and political areas. To this end, the study applies the augmented mean group (AMG) approach by constructing three different models for the period 2004–2018. The panel data results reveal that (i) GDP has a significantly increasing effect on REINV; (ii) EPU, GPR, and URB have a decreasing effect on REINV; (iii) the effect of EPU is much stronger than that of GPR; (iv) institutional structure, represented by government efficiency and regulatory quality, has no effect on REINV. Based on the results, the study points out that G7 countries need to promote transmission mechanisms that encourage REINV and take steps to minimize the negative effect of EPU and GPR on clean energy investments.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Uğur Korkut Pata","Andrew Adewale Alola","Sinan Erdoğan","Mustafa Tevfik Kartal"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107172","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0de0d07926f5ec5f","title":"The long run effects of de jure discrimination in the credit market: How redlining increased crime","abstract":"Today in the United States the welfare costs of crime are disproportionately borne by individuals living in predominately African-American or Hispanic neighborhoods. This paper shows that redlining practices established in the wake of the Great Depression made lasting contributions to this inequity. First I use an unannounced population cutoff that determined which cities were redline mapped to show that redline mapping increased present-day city level crime. Secondly, I use a spatial regression discontinuity to show that redlining influenced the present-day neighborhood level distribution of crime in Los Angeles, California. I also identify channels though which redline mapping influenced crime including increasing racial segregation and decreasing educational attainment.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["John Anders"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104857","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0dea7f754f548736","title":"Home equity in retirement","abstract":"Retired homeowners dissave more slowly than renters, which suggests that homeownership affects retirees' saving decisions. We investigate empirically and theoretically the life‐cycle patterns of homeownership, housing, and nonhousing assets in retirement. Using an estimated structural model of saving and housing decisions, we find first that homeowners dissave slowly because they prefer to stay in their house as long as possible but cannot easily borrow against it. Second, the 1996–2006 housing boom significantly increased homeowners' assets. These channels are quantitatively significant; without considering homeownership, retirees' net worth would be 28%–44% lower, depending on age.","wordCount":93,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Makoto Nakajima","Irina A. Telyukova"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12435","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0dead10f7d12de8e","title":"Village sanitation and child health: Effects and external validity in a randomized field experiment in rural India","abstract":"Over a billion people worldwide defecate in the open, with important consequences for early-life health and human capital accumulation in developing countries. We report a cluster randomized controlled trial of a village sanitation intervention conducted in rural Maharashtra, India designed to identify an effect of village sanitation on average child height, an outcome of increasing importance to economists. We find an effect of approximately 0.3 height-for-age standard deviations, which is consistent with observations and hypotheses in economic and health literatures. We further exploit details of the planning and implementation of the experiment to study treatment heterogeneity and external validity.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jeffrey S. Hammer","Dean Spears"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.03.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0dfabc9d2c154102","title":"Taxation and Labour Supply of Married Couples across Countries: A Macroeconomic Analysis","abstract":"We document contemporaneous differences in the aggregate labour supply of married couples across seventeen European countries and the U.S. Based on a model of joint household decision making, we quantify the contribution of international differences in non-linear labour income taxes and consumption taxes to the international differences in hours worked in the data. Through the lens of the model, taxes, together with wages and the educational composition, account for a significant part of the small differences in married men’s and the large differences in married women’s hours worked in the data. Taking the full non-linearities of labour income tax codes, including the tax treatment of married couples, into account is crucial for generating the low cross-country correlation between married men’s and women’s hours worked in the data, and for explaining the variation of married women’s hours worked across European countries.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Alexander Bick","Nicola Fuchs‐Schündeln"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx057","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0e374a5a56c0dcd8","title":"Playing games to save water: Collective action games for groundwater management in Andhra Pradesh, India","abstract":"Groundwater is one of the most challenging common pool resources to govern, resulting in resource depletion in many areas. We present an innovative use of collective action games to not only measure propensity for cooperation, but to improve local understanding of groundwater interrelationships and stimulate collective governance of groundwater, based on a pilot study in Andhra Pradesh, India. The games simulate crop choice and consequences for the aquifer. These were followed by a community debriefing, which provided an entry point for discussing the interconnectedness of groundwater use, to affect mental models about groundwater. A slightly modified game was played in the same communities, one year later. Our study finds communication within the game increased the likelihood of groups reaching sustainable extraction levels in the second year of play, but not the first. Individual payments to participants based on how they played in the game had no effect on crop choice. Either repeated experience with the games or the revised structure of the game evoked more cooperation in the second year, outweighing other factors influencing behavior, such as education, gender, and trust index scores. After the games were played, a significantly higher proportion of communities adopted water registers and rules to govern groundwater, compared to other communities in the same NGO water commons program. Because groundwater levels are affected by many factors, games alone will not end groundwater depletion. However, games can contribute to social learning about the role of crop choice and collective action, to motivate behavior change toward more sustainable groundwater extraction.","wordCount":253,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Ruth Meinzen‐Dick","Marco A. Janssen","Sandeep Kandikuppa","Rahul Chaturvedi","Kaushalendra Rao","Sophie Theis"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.02.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0e3b1a3b73e31e47","title":"Formalizing common belief with no underlying assumption on individual beliefs","abstract":"This paper formalizes common belief among players with no underlying assumption on their individual beliefs. Especially, players may not be logically omniscient, i.e., they may not believe logical consequences of their beliefs. The key idea is to use a novel concept of a common basis: it is an event such that, whenever it is true, every player believes its logical consequences. The common belief in an event obtains when a common basis implies the mutual belief in that event. If players' beliefs are assumed to be true, then common belief reduces to common knowledge. The formalization nests previous axiomatizations of common belief and common knowledge which have assumed players' logical monotonic reasoning. Under this formalization, unlike others, if players have common belief in rationality then their actions survive iterated elimination of strictly dominated actions even if their beliefs are not monotonic.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Satoshi Fukuda"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.02.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0e416ef4ce1d0d6c","title":"Catching-Up and Falling Behind: Russian Economic Growth, 1690s–1880s","abstract":"We provide decadal estimates of GDP per capita for the Russian Empire from the 1690s to the 1880s, making it possible for the first time to compare the economic performance of one of the world’s largest economies with other countries. Significant Russian economic growth before the 1760s resulted in catching-up on northwest Europe, but this was followed by a period of negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s and stagnation from the 1800s to the 1880s, leaving late-nineteenth century Russia further behind the West than at the beginning of the eighteenth century.","wordCount":92,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Stephen Broadberry","Elena Korchmina"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050724000287","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0e418d2f8ec0ab83","title":"Efficient estimation of bid–ask spreads from open, high, low, and close prices","abstract":"Popular bid–ask spread estimators are downward biased when trading is infrequent. Moreover, they consider only a subset of open, high, low, and close prices and neglect potentially useful information to improve the spread estimate. By accounting for discretely observed prices, this paper derives asymptotically unbiased estimators of the effective bid–ask spread. Moreover, we combine them optimally to minimize the estimation variance and obtain an efficient estimator. Through theoretical analyses, numerical simulations, and empirical evaluations, we show that our efficient estimator dominates other estimators from transaction prices, yields novel insights for measuring bid–ask spreads, and has broad applicability in empirical finance.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["David Ardia","Emanuele Guidotti","Tim Alexander Kroencke"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103916","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0e42489cc0eb6d94","title":"Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment","abstract":"This paper analyzes the inefficiencies arising from the combination of fixed exchange rates, nominal rigidity, and free capital mobility. We document that nominal wages are downwardly rigid in emerging countries. We develop an open-economy model that incorporates this friction. The model predicts that the combination of a currency peg and free capital mobility creates a negative externality that causes overborrowing during booms and high unemployment during contractions. Optimal capital controls are shown to be prudential. For plausible calibrations, they reduce unemployment by around 5 percentage points. The optimal exchange rate policy eliminates unemployment and calls for large devaluations during crises.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé","Martı́n Uribe"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688175","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0e4b516187d4cf29","title":"The joy of lottery play: evidence from a field experiment","abstract":"Buying lottery tickets is not a rational investment from a financial point of view. Yet, the majority of people participate at least once a year in a lottery. We conducted a field experiment to increase understanding of lottery participation. Using representative data for the Netherlands, we find that lottery participation increased the happiness of participants before the draw. Winning a small prize had no effect on happiness. Our results indicate that people may not only care about the outcomes of the lottery, but also enjoy the game. Accordingly, we conclude that lottery participation has a utility value in itself and part of the utility of a lottery ticket is consumed before the draw.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Martijn Burger","Martijn Hendriks","Emma Pleeging","Jan C. van Ours"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09649-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0e4e0325fe80a1b5","title":"Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation","abstract":"We use a survey experiment to generate direct evidence on how people acquire and process information. Participants can buy different information signals that could help them forecast future national home prices. We elicit their valuations and exogenously vary the cost of information. Participants put substantial value on their preferred signal and, when acquired, incorporate the signal in their beliefs. However, they disagree on which signal to buy. As a result, making information cheaper does not decrease the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations. We provide a model with costly acquisition and processing of information, which can match most of our empirical results.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Andreas Fuster","Ricardo Pérez-Truglia","Mirko Wiederholt","Basit Zafar"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03878688","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0e5c1fd8bf6201fc","title":"Enforceability of Noncompetition Agreements and Forced Turnovers of Chief Executive Officers","abstract":"We examine whether corporate boards factor the potential cost of competitive harm caused by a departing chief executive officer (CEO) into their forced-turnover decisions. Using staggered changes in the state-level enforceability of a covenant not to compete (CNC) for identification, we find that enhanced enforceability of CNCs increases both the likelihood of forced CEO turnover and the sensitivity of forced CEO turnover to firm performance. We present additional cross-sectional evidence that shows that such effects are more pronounced when firms face more severe product market threats or operate in industries with greater potential threats of predatory hiring. Investors react to turnover announcements more positively when enforceability increases, which indicates that enhanced enforceability of CNCs increases efficiency in decisions to replace CEOs.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Yupeng Lin","Florian S. Peters","Hojun Seo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/716172","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0e9517f4a6d6d623","title":"Virtual Classrooms: How Online College Courses Affect Student Success","abstract":"Online college courses are a rapidly expanding feature of higher education, yet little research identifies their effects relative to traditional in-person classes. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that taking a course online, instead of in-person, reduces student success and progress in college. Grades are lower both for the course taken online and in future courses. Students are less likely to remain enrolled at the university. These estimates are local average treatment effects for students with access to both online and in-person options; for other students, online classes may be the only option for accessing college-level courses.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Eric Bettinger","Lindsay Fox","Susanna Loeb","Eric S. Taylor"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20151193","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0e9d55a9dd0b12ff","title":"Does finance alter the relation between inequality and growth?","abstract":"This paper introduces a model in which greater inequality reduces growth in economies with low levels of financial development but that this effect is attenuated in economies with more developed systems. The model also predicts that individuals in economies with developed financial markets have a higher tolerance to inequality. Using a panel dataset that covers a large number of countries, this paper shows empirical evidence that is consistent with the main predictions of the model. Overall, this paper's major findings highlight that some of the pernicious effects of inequality can be attenuated by improving access to credit.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Matías Braun","Francisco Parro","Patricio Valenzuela"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12581","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0ea709d6afc69d0f","title":"Information acquisition, price informativeness, and welfare","abstract":"We consider the market for a risky asset with heterogeneous valuations. Private information that agents have about their own valuation is reflected in the equilibrium price. We study the learning externalities that arise in this setting, and in particular their implications for price informativeness and welfare. When private signals are noisy, so that agents rely more on the information conveyed by prices, discouraging information gathering may be Pareto improving. Complementarities in information acquisition can lead to multiple equilibria.","wordCount":78,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Rohit Rahi","Jean‐Pierre Zigrand"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.07.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0eb1c093d48a9ad7","title":"Employment Effects of Financial Constraints during the Great Recession","abstract":"Employment declined substantially during the 2007–2009 recession, especially in small and young firms. Using confidential firm-level data of the universe of firms and a difference-in-differences methodology, this paper estimates that financial constraints reduced employment growth by 4 to 8 percentage points in small firms relative to large firms and by 7 to 9 percentage points in young relative to old firms. I find that the effect of financial constraints on small firms is driven to a large extent by young firms. I then document that financial constraints affected employment growth in small and young firms strongly through the entry and exit of firms.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Michael Siemer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00733","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ec0f51deded2b2b","title":"The labour market returns to sleep","abstract":"Despite the growing prevalence of insufficient sleep among individuals, we still know little about the labour market return to sleep. To address this gap, we use longitudinal data from Germany and leverage exogenous fluctuations in sleep duration caused by variations in time and local sunset times. Our findings reveal that a one-hour increase in weekly sleep is associated with a 1.6 percentage point rise in employment and a 3.4% increase in weekly earnings. Such effect on earnings stems from productivity improvements given that the number of working hours decreases with longer sleep duration. We also identify a key mechanism driving these effects, namely the enhanced mental well-being experienced by individuals who sleep longer hours.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Joan Costa‐Font","Sarah Flèche","Ricardo Pagán"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102840","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0ec742de1663ddcf","title":"Dodging the Taxman: Firm Misreporting and Limits to Tax Enforcement","abstract":"Reducing tax evasion is a priority for many governments. A growing literature argues that verifying taxpayer reports against third-party information is critical for tax collection. However, effectiveness can be limited when tax authorities face constraints to credible enforcement and taxpayers make offsetting adjustments on other margins. We exploit a policy intervention in which Ecuadorian firms were notified about detected revenue discrepancies. Most firms simply failed to respond. Firms that responded increased reported revenue, matching the discrepancy amount when provided. However, they also increased reported costs by 96 cents per dollar of revenue adjustment, resulting in minor increases in tax collection.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Paul E. Carrillo","Dina Pomeranz","Monica Singhal"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140495","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ed3e5e30fa60bdb","title":"Can Electronic Procurement Improve Infrastructure Provision? Evidence from Public Works in India and Indonesia","abstract":"This paper examines whether electronic procurement (e-procurement), which increases access to information and reduces personal interactions with potentially corrupt officials, improves procurement outcomes. We develop unique datasets from India and Indonesia and use variation in adoption of e-procurement within both countries. We find no evidence of reduced prices but do find that e-procurement leads to quality improvements. In India, where we observe quality directly, e-procurement improves road quality, and in Indonesia, e-procurement reduces delays. Regions with e-procurement are more likely to have winners come from outside the region. On net, the results suggest that e-procurement facilitates entry from higher quality contractors.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Sean Lewis-Faupel","Yusuf Neggers","Benjamin Olken","Rohini Pande"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140258","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ed4ee9a7d0b49ae","title":"Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World","abstract":"This article provides an overview of recent literature on plagues and other lethal epidemics, covering the period from late Antiquity to ca. 1800. We analyze the main environmental and institutional factors that shaped both the way in which a plague originated and spread and its overall demographic and socioeconomic consequences. We clarify how the same pathogen shows historically different epidemiological characteristics, and how apparently similar epidemics could have deeply different consequences. We discuss current debates about the socioeconomic consequences of the Black Death and other plagues. We conclude with historical lessons to understand modern “plagues.”","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Guido Alfani","Tommy E. Murphy"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000092","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ed7a694aaa91520","title":"Sticky Expectations and the Profitability Anomaly","abstract":"We propose a theory of the “profitability” anomaly. In our model, investors forecast future profits using a signal and sticky belief dynamics. In this model, past profits forecast future returns (the profitability anomaly). Using analyst forecast data, we measure expectation stickiness at the firm level and find strong support for three additional model predictions: (1) analysts are on average too pessimistic regarding the future profits of high‐profit firms, (2) the profitability anomaly is stronger for stocks that are followed by stickier analysts, and (3) the profitability anomaly is stronger for stocks with more persistent profits.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Jean‐Philippe Bouchaud","Philipp Krüger","Augustin Landier","David Thesmar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12734","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0eea2acbb21b87ac","title":"Looking beyond time preference: Testing potential causes of low willingness to pay for fuel economy improvements","abstract":"Time preferences are considered a leading cause of the energy efficiency gap. We test two cognition-based mechanisms (concentration bias and underestimation bias) which are distinct from time preferences but can produce identical behaviour when costs are paid upfront and benefits are spread over time. We use an experiment that measures willingness-to-pay for an improvement in fuel economy to test the explanatory power of these mechanisms. The sample is large, nationally representative and comprised only of recent car buyers (n = 2,368). The experiment varies between-subjects (i) the payment schedule for the fuel economy improvement, and (ii) the temporal framing of its monetary benefit. We combine the payment schedules and the benefit frames so that the pattern of results predicted by time preferences differs from the pattern predicted by cognitive mechanisms. Results support the preregistered hypotheses: willingness-to-pay increases as the payment schedule becomes more dispersed across time and decreases when the benefit is presented as more disaggregated (i.e. a monthly saving instead of annual or multi-year saving). The findings are consistent with the predictions of the two cognitive mechanisms, which may explain part of the energy-efficiency gap currently attributed to pure time preference.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Féidhlim McGowan","Eleanor Denny","Pete Lunn"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101404","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0ef42e1ab4084fef","title":"No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts","abstract":"No first-mover advantage in youth or women’s subgroups was found. Conflicting evidence exists regarding a first-mover advantage in soccer shootouts, where increased pressure on second-moving teams may lead to choking. While some studies support this claim, others refute it, with the lack of consensus likely due to limited sample sizes. An analysis of around 7,000 soccer penalty shootouts and 74,000 kicks finds no evidence of a first- or second-mover advantage in winning probability. Equivalence testing further rejects any deviation greater than 1.8 percentage points from a 50% win probability for first-kicking teams. A parallel analysis of ice hockey shootouts finds no significant advantage or disadvantage for either the first- or second-moving team.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["David Pipke"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0f03ce43cd18e3aa","title":"The Market-Promoting and Market-Preserving Role of Social Trust in Reforms of Policies and Institutions","abstract":"Social trust has been identified as a catalyst for reforms. We take the literature further in two ways. First, we analyze mechanisms through which social trust enables liberalizing reforms—by overcoming obstacles in the political process (stemming from ideology, ideological fractionalization, coalition government, minority government, and legislature-seat instability). Second, we define reforms as distinct changes in the quality of the legal institutions and in the scope of regulation and separate reforms that increase economic freedom in these two areas from reforms that decrease it. We study separately how social trust, interacted with the different types of political hindrances, affects the probability of reforms. We find a dual role of social trust in the political process—facilitating liberalizing reforms and making deliberalizing ones more difficult. This suggests that trust does not make agreement on any reform more probable—the content of the reform is crucial.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Niclas Berggren","Christian Bjørnskov"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12209","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0f092a43f8f8bde0","title":"Discrimination in hiring based on potential and realized fertility: Evidence from a large-scale field experiment","abstract":"Due to conventional gender norms, women are more likely to be in charge of childcare than men. From an employer's perspective, in their fertile age they are also at “risk” of pregnancy. Both factors potentially affect hiring practices of firms. We conduct a large-scale correspondence test in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria, sending out approx. 9000 job applications, varying job candidate's personal characteristics such as marital status and age of children. We find evidence that, for part-time jobs, married women with older kids, who likely finished their childbearing cycle and have more projectable childcare chores than women with very young kids, are at a significant advantage vis-à-vis other groups of women. At the same time, married, but childless applicants, who have a higher likelihood to become pregnant, are at a disadvantage compared to single, but childless applicants to part-time jobs. Such effects are not present for full-time jobs presumably because, by applying to these in contrast to part-time jobs, women signal that they have arranged for external childcare.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Sascha O. Becker","Ana Fernandes","Doris Weichselbaumer"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2019.04.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0f0f73345cc0a787","title":"Growing like China: Firm performance and global production line position","abstract":"Global value chains have fundamentally transformed international trade and development in recent decades. We use matched firm-level customs and manufacturing survey data, together with Input-Output tables for China, to examine how Chinese firms position themselves in global production lines and how this evolves with productivity and performance over the firm lifecycle. We document a sharp rise in the upstreamness of imports, stable positioning of exports, and rapid expansion in production stages conducted in China over the 1992–2014 period, both in the aggregate and within firms over time. Firms span more stages as they grow more productive, bigger and more experienced. This is accompanied by a rise in input purchases, value added in production, fixed costs incurred, and profits. We rationalize these patterns with a stylized model of the firm lifecycle with complementarity between the scale of production and the scope of stages performed.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Davin Chor","Kalina Manova","Zhihong Yu"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103445","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0f19de809c0f1fb5","title":"US monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: The role of trade credit","abstract":"This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firm-to-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when financial conditions tighten. This later effect only exists in pre-existing relationships, where trust can be more readily established, compared to new partnerships. Given the widespread use of trade credit in emerging markets, this buffering role is crucial for mitigating financial pressures in these economies.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Mélina London","Maéva Silvestrini"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0f274577018f420d","title":"Risk preferences over health: Empirical estimates and implications for medical decision-making","abstract":"Mainstream health economic theory implies that an expected gain in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) produces the same value for consumers, regardless of baseline health. Several strands of recent research call this implication into question. Generalized Risk-Adjusted Cost-Effectiveness (GRACE) demonstrates theoretically that baseline health status influences value, so long as consumers are not risk-neutral over health. Prior empirical literature casts doubt on risk-neutral expected utility-maximization in the health domain. We estimate utility over HRQoL in a nationally representative U.S. population and use our estimates to measure risk preferences over health. We find that individuals are risk-seeking at low levels of health, become risk-averse at health equal to 0.485 (measured on a 0-1 scale), and are most risk-averse at perfect health (coefficient of relative risk aversion = 4.51). We develop the resulting implications for medical decision making, cost-effectiveness analyses, and the proper theory of health-related decision making under uncertainty.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Karen Mulligan","Drishti Baid","Jason N. Doctor","Charles E. Phelps","Darius Lakdawalla"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102857","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0f296def1d9995f3","title":"Robust Minimal Instability of the Top Trading Cycles Mechanism","abstract":"In the context of priority-based allocation of objects, we formulate methods to compare assignments in terms of their stability. We introduce three basic properties that a reasonable stability comparison should satisfy. We show that for any stability comparison satisfying the three properties, the top trading cycles mechanism is minimally unstable among efficient and strategy-proof mechanisms when objects have unit capacities. Our unifying approach covers basically all natural stability comparisons and establishes the robustness of a recent result by Abdulkadiroğlu et al. (2020). When objects have nonunit capacities, we characterize the capacity-priority structures for which our result is preserved.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Battal Doğan","Lars Ehlers"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200148","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-0f34673fa175d74c","title":"Does managerial personality matter? Evidence from firms in Vietnam","abstract":"Using novel data from micro, small and medium firms in Vietnam, we estimate the relationship between behavioural and personality traits of owners/managers – risk attitudes, locus of control, and innovativeness – and firm-level decisions. We extend the analysis beyond standard metrics of firm performance such as revenue and growth to study intermediate investments, including product innovation, worker training, and adoption of workplace safety measures that are potentially conducive to observed firm performance. Our results show that innovativeness and locus of control are positively correlated with revenue while risk aversion predicts lower revenue. Risk aversion is positively correlated with the adoption of safety measures. Innovativeness, as expected, is associated with an increased probability of product innovations. An internal locus of control predicts higher probability of investments, innovations and worker training. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that innovativeness and risk aversion matter more for firm outcomes in provinces characterized by better business climate. Our results are robust to a variety of checks. We contribute to a nascent and rapidly growing literature on the importance of managerial capital by shedding light on the role of managerial personality characteristics for decision-making in firms in a dynamic transition economy.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Smriti Sharma","Finn Tarp"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.02.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0f44e6ae3028596b","title":"The evolution of resilience","abstract":"I analyze a social evolutionary model in which there is a non-excludable public good that reduces the chances of catastrophe. I show that while resilient types that produce the public good cannot survive head-to-head competition with other more selfish types in a fixed population, they do if catastrophes reduce population.","wordCount":50,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["David K. Levine"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.106078","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0f45065a519eaa0b","title":"The housing stock, housing prices, and user costs: The roles of location, structure, and unobserved quality","abstract":"Which housing characteristics are important for understanding homeownership rates? How are housing characteristics priced in rental and owner‐occupied markets? What can answers to these questions tell us about economic theories of homeownership? Using the English Housing Survey, we estimate a selection model of property allocations to the owner‐occupied and rental sectors. Structural characteristics and unobserved quality are important for selection. Location is not. Accounting for selection is important for rent‐to‐price ratio estimates and explains some puzzling correlations between rent‐to‐price ratios and homeownership rates. These patterns are consistent with, among others, hypotheses of rental market contracting frictions related to housing maintenance.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Jonathan Halket","Lars Nesheim","Florian Oswald"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12475","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0f4643acc52bcd0f","title":"The effects of training incidence and planned training duration on labor market transitions","abstract":"This paper uses a dynamic model for employment and training transitions in discrete time to estimate average employment effects of training incidence and planned training duration for the treated. We account for the dynamics of program start and continuation while treatment and outcome transitions are linked through correlated individual-specific effects. Identification relies on a consistency condition, conditional sequential randomization, time-varying covariates, and exclusion restrictions. We implement our framework applying MCMC methods to rich administrative data for a large training program in Germany. In addition to finding a positive training effect on employment between 6 and 12 percentage points 2.5 years after program start, we demonstrate that a longer planned training duration typically results in higher medium- to long-term employment gains.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Bernd Fitzenberger","Aderonke Osikominu","Marie Paul"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.03.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0f6f9620bc14a687","title":"Race and Bankruptcy: Explaining Racial Disparities in Consumer Bankruptcy","abstract":"African American bankruptcy filers select Chapter 13 far more often than other debtors, who opt instead for Chapter 7, which has higher success rates and lower attorneys’ fees. Prior scholarship blames racial discrimination by attorneys. We propose an alternative explanation: Chapter 13 offers benefits, including retention of cars and driver’s licenses, that are more valuable to African American debtors because of relatively long commutes. We study a 2011 policy change in Chicago, which seized cars and suspended licenses of consumers with large traffic-related debts. The policy produced a large increase in Chapter 13 filings, especially by African Americans. Two mechanisms explain the disparate racial impact: African Americans were more likely to have traffic debts and incurred greater costs from car seizures and license suspension due to relatively long commutes. When we match African Americans to other debtors with similar commutes, we find no racial difference in Chapter 13 filing propensities.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Edward R. Morrison","Belisa Pang","Antoine Uettwiller"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/709423","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-0f73197cbc596921","title":"Do small farms prefer agricultural mechanization services? Evidence from wheat production in China","abstract":"Developing agricultural mechanization services has been an important approach to pushing smallholder farmers engaging modern agricultural production in China. However, whether smallholder farmers prefer adopting agricultural mechanization services is still under-analysed. In this paper, we use data covering 3,440 wheat farmers collected from Henan province in China to investigate the links between farm size and the adoption of agricultural mechanization services. The results indicate that an inverted U-shaped relationship between farm size and the adoption of agricultural mechanization services exists. We also find that small farms can input more family labour, and large farms tend to invest in self-owned machinery assets. Our analysis implies that the development of agricultural mechanization services is not inevitable to attract farmers with alternative elements, and smallholder farmers may not be the major groups involved in the market of social services in agriculture in the future.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Tongwei Qiu","Biliang Luo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1870656","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0f7969e2183c9b98","title":"Robust inference for the Two-Sample 2SLS estimator","abstract":"The Two-Sample Two-Stage Least Squares (TS2SLS) data combination estimator is a popular estimator for the parameters in linear models when not all variables are observed jointly in one single data set. Although the limiting normal distribution has been established, the asymptotic variance formula has only been stated explicitly in the literature for the case of conditional homoskedasticity. By using the fact that the TS2SLS estimator is a function of reduced form and first-stage OLS estimators, we derive the variance of the limiting normal distribution under conditional heteroskedasticity. A robust variance estimator is obtained, which generalises to cases with more general patterns of variable (non-)availability. Stata code and some Monte Carlo results are provided in an Appendix. Stata code for a nonlinear GMM estimator that is identical to the TS2SLS estimator in just identified models and asymptotically equivalent to the TS2SLS estimator in overidentified models is also provided there.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["David Pacini","Frank Windmeijer"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.033","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0f991d7c47626b8a","title":"Behavior of the Firm Under Regulatory Constraint","abstract":"A recent article in this Review by Averch and Johnson [3] on the fair rate of return regulation in public utilities industries (or more generally regulated industries) attracted the attention of many economists. In essence, Averch-johnson argues that the introduction of an constraint of a fair rate of return type would induce the firm to invest more than the original profit maximizing value of capital, and this would create an inefficient allocation of inputs. In addition to frequent citations in verbal arguments, it has invited some thieoretical extensions by economists such as WVestfield [8] and Klevorick [5]. All of the writers seem to accept the basic theoretical foundations set by Averch and Johnson. For example, Klevorick [5] recently proposed that the fair rate of return should be inversely related to the size of the capital of a firm. The intuitive basis for this is apparent, for it in effect creates a penalty as the amount of capital used by the firm increases.' However, it seems to me that AverchJohnson's original arguments are sketchy and contain somewhat ambiguous logic at several important points. Although their conclusion, for which they tried to find empirical support, that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint seems to be correct, it does not follow from their arguments. In particular, there seems to be a serious error which arises from confusing movements along a curve and shifts of a curve. In Section II, we clarify those ambiguities, and if necessary, correct the mistakes. In the third section of this paper, we shall provide a new formulation of the problem. We shall find that the new formulation will give the same answer as AverchJohnson, namely that a firm will tend to invest more with the iiltroductioin of an active constraint. It should be noted however that while the conclusion happens to be the same, this was not the necessity, for we needed a completely new formulation to obtain the old conclusion.","wordCount":332,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Akira Takayama"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v59y1969i3p255-60.html","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0fa486abee0ff687","title":"Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis","abstract":"A key decision facing firms is the extent of control to exert over the different stages in their production processes. We develop and test a property rights model of firm boundary choices along the value chain. We construct firm-level measures of the upstreamness of integrated and nonintegrated inputs by combining information on firms’ production activities in more than 100 countries with input-output tables. Whether a firm integrates upstream or downstream suppliers depends crucially on the elasticity of demand it faces. Moreover, integration is shaped by the relative contractibility of stages along the value chain, as well as by the firm’s productivity.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Laura Alfaro","Pol Antràs","Davin Chor","Paola Conconi"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700935","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0fa721a22792e0b6","title":"Appeals to Social Norms and Taxpayer Compliance","abstract":"We use laboratory experiments to examine the impact of appeals to social norms on the compliance decisions of individuals. We test the effects of two main types of social norms: “descriptive norms,” or the type of behavior that is typical or most frequently enacted, and “injunctive norms,” or the type of behavior that “constitutes morally approved and disapproved conduct”. In addition, for injunctive norms, we introduce approval‐framed and disapproval‐framed injunctive norm messages. Our results indicate that normative appeals generally have a modest and positive impact on tax compliance, if not always statistically significant. The magnitude of both approval‐ and disapproval‐framed injunctive norm messages is an increase of around 2% in reported taxes.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["James Alm","William D. Schulze","Carrie von Bose","Jubo Yan"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12374","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0fa9cfab31cf47a5","title":"Testing the effectiveness of consumer financial disclosure: Experimental evidence from savings accounts","abstract":"While popular with policymakers, most evidence on consumer financial disclosure’s effectiveness studies borrowing decisions (where optimality is unclear) or lab experiments (where attention is not scarce). We provide field evidence from randomized controlled trials with 124,000 savings account holders at five UK depositories. Treated consumers were disclosed varying degrees of salient information about alternative products, including one with their current provider strictly dominating their current product. Despite switching taking roughly 15 minutes and the moderate average potential gains ($190/year), switching is rare across disclosure designs and depositors. We find pessimistic beliefs drive disclosure inattention and limit disclosure’s effectiveness, helping explain deposit stickiness.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Paul Adams","Stefan Hunt","Christopher Palmer","Redis Zaliauskas"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.05.009","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0fb479a86e277e10","title":"Coordinating charitable donations with Leontief preferences","abstract":"We consider the problem of funding public goods that are complementary in nature. Examples include charities handling different needs (e.g., protecting animals vs. providing healthcare), charitable donations to different individuals, or municipal units handling different issues (e.g., security vs. transportation). We model these complementarities by assuming Leontief preferences; that is, each donor seeks to maximize an individually weighted minimum of all contributions across the charities. Decentralized funding may be inefficient due to a lack of coordination among the donors; centralized funding may be undesirable as it ignores the preferences of individual donors. We present a mechanism that combines the advantages of both methods. The mechanism efficiently distributes each donor's contribution so that no subset of donors has an incentive to redistribute their donations. Moreover, it is group-strategyproof, satisfies desirable monotonicity properties, maximizes Nash welfare, returns a unique Lindahl equilibrium, and can be implemented via natural best-response spending dynamics.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Felix Brandt","Matthias Greger","Erel Segal-Halevi","Warut Suksompong"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.106096","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0fbce649e1a00bf5","title":"Loans to Chapter 11 Firms: Contract Design, Repayment Risk, and Pricing","abstract":"With a hand-collected set of 545 debtor-in-possession (DIP) loan facilities for 2002–19, we show that these short-term loans are highly overcollateralized and contain a comprehensive set of restrictive covenants, mandatory prepayments, and restructuring milestones—all of which help produce a repayment risk near 0. Nevertheless, the all-in spread drawn averages 658 basis points—almost five times the average spread on matched investment-grade loans and nearly double the average spread on matched leveraged loans issued by highly risky firms outside of bankruptcy. Textual analysis of court documents shows lack of outside lenders’ participation in the loan solicitation process, but spreads are somewhat lower when outside interest is high. We discuss alternative interpretations of the high DIP loan spreads, ranging from monitoring-cost compensation to rent extraction as DIP loan providers with strong bargaining power share in the preservation of going-concern value helped by the last-resort loan. “The question this debtor had to ask, is: Is this [debtor-in-possession loan] better than a liquidation?” (Mark Ellenberg, in Kary [2009])“In the Great Recession default cycle, no [debtor-in-possession loans] defaulted.” (David Keisman, in Adler [2016])","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["B. Espen Eckbo","Kai Li","Wei Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/724421","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0fc7aa55f2e9851e","title":"Attribution bias in major decisions: Evidence from the United States Military Academy","abstract":"Using administrative data, we study the role of attribution bias in a high-stakes, consequential decision: the choice of a college major. Specifically, we examine the influence of fatigue experienced during exposure to a general education course on whether students choose the major corresponding to that course. To do so, we exploit the conditional random assignment of student course schedules at the United States Military Academy. We find that students who are assigned to an early morning (7:30 AM) section of a general education course are roughly 10% less likely to major in that subject, relative to students assigned to a later time slot for the course. We find similar effects for fatigue generated by having one or more back-to-back courses immediately prior to a general education course that starts later in the day. Finally, we demonstrate that the pattern of results is consistent with attribution bias and difficult to reconcile with competing explanations.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Kareem Haggag","R. W. Patterson","Nolan Pope","Aaron Feudo"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104445","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-0fd55b39631a59c7","title":"Why Birthright Citizenship Matters for Immigrant Children: Short- and Long-Run Impacts on Educational Integration","abstract":"This paper examines whether the introduction of birthright citizenship in Germany affected immigrant children’s educational outcomes at the first three stages of the education system: preschool, primary school, and secondary school. Using a birth date cutoff as a source of exogenous variation, we find that the policy (i) increased immigrant children’s participation in noncompulsory preschool education, (ii) had positive effects on key developmental outcomes measured at the end of the preschool period, (iii) caused immigrant children to progress faster through primary school, and (iv) increased the likelihood of them attending the academic track of secondary school.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Christina Felfe","Helmut Rainer","Judith Saurer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/704570","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0fd5a2573d5a58e6","title":"A Different Perspective on the Evolution of UK Income Inequality","abstract":"This paper scrutinizes the conventional wisdom about trends in UK income inequality and also places contemporary inequality in a much longer historical perspective. We combine household survey and income tax data to provide better coverage of all income ranges from the bottom to the very top (and make our estimates available to other researchers). We make a case for studying distributions of income between tax units (i.e. not assuming the full income sharing that goes with the use of the household as the unit of analysis) for reasons of principle as well as data harmonization. We present evidence that income inequality in the UK is as least as high today as it was just before the start of World War 2.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["A. B. Atkinson","Stephen P. Jenkins"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12412","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-0fe254d76ad64a66","title":"It’s Where You Work: Increases in the Dispersion of Earnings across Establishments and Individuals in the United States","abstract":"This paper analyzes the role of establishments in the upward trend in dispersion of earnings that has become a central topic in economic analysis and policy debate. It decomposes changes in the variance of log earnings among individuals into the part due to changes in earnings among establishments and the part due to changes in earnings within establishments. The main finding is that much of the 1970s–2010s increase in earnings inequality results from increased dispersion of the earnings among the establishments where individuals work. Our results direct attention to the role of establishment-level pay setting and economic adjustments in earnings inequality.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Erling Barth","Alex Bryson","James C. Davis","Richard Freeman"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ff20b0bfd382c5e","title":"The Effects of Employment Counseling on Labor Market Outcomes for Adults and Dislocated Workers: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Experiment","abstract":"This article examines the effects of “intensive services” provided by the Adult and Dislocated Worker programs, two of the largest employment service programs in the United States. Intensive services include one‐on‐one staff assistance—assessments, coaching, career counseling, and service referrals. The study was a randomized controlled trial conducted in 28 randomly selected sites, with the randomization of job seekers to research groups with or without access to intensive services, yielding study findings with both internal and external validity. Using survey and administrative earnings data, we find that access to intensive services increased earnings by between 7 and 20 percent over a three‐year follow‐up period; these benefits exceed program costs from the perspective of both taxpayers and society as a whole. Although impacts were larger for more educated job seekers and in areas with higher rates of unemployment, impacts were similar across many other subgroups, including for adults compared with dislocated workers.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Sheena McConnell","Peter Z. Schochet","Dana Rotz","Ken Fortson","Paul Burkander","Annalisa Mastri"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22305","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-0ff3182cc758f37e","title":"Gig-jobs: Stepping stones or dead ends?","abstract":"How useful is work experience from the gig economy for labor market entrants searching for traditional wage jobs? We conducted a correspondence study in Sweden, comparing callback rates for recent high school graduates with (i) gig-experience, (ii) traditional experience, and (iii) unemployment history. We also study heterogeneous responses with respect to perceived foreign background. Our findings suggest that gig-experience is more valuable than unemployment, but less useful than traditional experience for majority applicants. Strikingly however, no form of labor market experience increases the callback rate for minority workers.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Adrian Adermon","Lena Hensvik"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102171","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10086ca27aeaef60","title":"A model of approval with an application to list design","abstract":"Online technologies enable a host of observable acts, such as wishlisting, that do not quite amount to choice meant as a final selection. Rather, they express interest and a positive attitude towards an item. We gather this type of behaviour under the term approval. With items presented as a list, we propose a model of approval. We completely characterise the model in terms of simple properties of observed approval data. We introduce and study the problem of list design. This captures situations where an interested party can manipulate the approver's behaviour by choosing the list with the aim of maximising an objective.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Paola Manzini","Marco Mariotti","Levent Ülkü"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105821","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1019ffa18a6e9804","title":"Conservation agriculture and climate resilience","abstract":"Agricultural productivity growth is vital for economic and food security outcomes which are threatened by climate change. In response, governments and development agencies are encouraging the adoption of 'climate-smart' agricultural technologies, such as conservation agriculture (CA). However, there is little rigorous evidence that demonstrates the effect of CA on production or climate resilience, and what evidence exists is hampered by selection bias. Using panel data from Zimbabwe, we test how CA performs during extreme rainfall events - both shortfalls and surpluses. We control for the endogenous adoption decision and find that use of CA in years of average rainfall results in no yield gains, and in some cases yield loses. However, CA is effective in mitigating the negative impacts of deviations in rainfall. We conclude that the lower yields during normal rainfall seasons may be a proximate factor in low uptake of CA. Policy should focus promotion of CA on these climate resilience benefits.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Jeffrey D. Michler","Kathy Baylis","Mary Arends‐Kuenning","Kizito Mazvimavi"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.11.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-101c2cea8a1dac2b","title":"A more general model of price complexity","abstract":"Different policy implications depending on the confusion technology’s curvature. This paper analyses a model of competition where the firms set not only prices but also the complexity levels of their prices (which determine how difficult it is for consumers to assess the price offers). Unlike previous work, in this model, the firms’ confusion technology may be non-linear in the aggregate complexity level. The equilibrium probability of using high complexity increases in the number of firms but decreases in the convexity of the confusion technology. In large markets, the firms use high complexity almost surely. However, the industry profit converges to the highest level with concave technologies and to the lowest level with convex technologies. An increase in consumer sophistication, which benefits the consumers, may not reduce market complexity.","wordCount":128,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Ioana Chioveanu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.102563","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-101cbe4d40a21d27","title":"Business cycle asymmetry and input-output structure: The role of firm-to-firm networks","abstract":"With low production flexibility (inputs are gross complements), denser production structures imply that relying on more inputs becomes a risk that further amplifies the effects of negative productivity shocks. Our calibrated model displays procyclical skewness of firm-level output growth, in the cross-section, out of symmetric productivity shocks. Complementarities in production and the network structure shape this result. We study the network origins of business cycle asymmetries using cross-country and administrative firm-level data. At the country level, we document that countries with a larger number of non-zero intersectoral linkages (denser networks) display a more negatively skewed cyclical component of output. At the firm level, we find that firms with a larger number of suppliers and customers (degrees) display a more negatively-skewed distribution of their output growth. To rationalize these findings, we construct a multisector model with input-output linkages and show that the relationship between output skewness and network density naturally arises once we consider non-linearities in production. In an economy with low production flexibility (inputs are gross complements), denser production structures imply that relying on more inputs becomes a risk that further amplifies the effects of negative productivity shocks. The opposite holds if firms display high production flexibility (inputs are gross substitutes): having more inputs to choose from becomes an opportunity to diversify the effects of negative productivity shocks. We calibrate the model using our rich firm-to-firm network Chilean data and show that more connected firms experience larger declines in output in response to a COVID-19 shock, consistent with the data. We also show that, as in the data, the cross-sectional distribution of output growth in the model displays a fatter left tail during downturns. The previous result is shaped by the interplay between production complementarities and network interconnectedness, rather than by the asymmetry of the shocks. The size of the shock determines the strength of the relationship between degrees and output decline, which highlights the importance of non-linearities and the limitations of local approximations.","wordCount":324,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Jorge Miranda‐Pinto","Álvaro Silva","Eric R. Young"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10276ff25e4ef2e4","title":"Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks","abstract":"This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that affected suppliers impose substantial output losses on their customers, especially when they produce specific inputs. These output losses translate into significant market value losses, and they spill over to other suppliers. Our point estimates are economically large, suggesting that input specificity is an important determinant of the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in the economy.","wordCount":78,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jean-Noël Barrot","Julien Sauvagnat"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw018","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-1027a6541c25fa96","title":"Ad valorem platform fees, indirect taxes, and efficient price discrimination","abstract":"This article explains why platforms such as Amazon and Visa rely predominantly on ad valorem fees, fees which increase proportionally with transaction prices. It also provides a new explanation for why ad valorem sales taxes are more desirable than specific taxes. The theory rests on the ability of ad valorem fees and taxes to achieve efficient price discrimination, given that the value of a transaction to buyers tends to vary proportionally with the cost of the good traded.","wordCount":78,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Zhu Wang","Julian Wright"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12183","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-102cf99388079bdd","title":"Cigarette taxes and smoking among sexual minority adults","abstract":"We provide the first quasi-experimental evidence on the relationship between cigarette taxes and smoking among sexual minority adults, a group that has been understudied in past research. We use large samples of individuals in same-sex households (a large share of whom are sexual minorities in same-sex romantic relationships) from the 1996-2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We find that cigarette taxes significantly reduced smoking among men and women in same-sex households, and the effects we find for men in same-sex households are very robust and significantly larger than the associated effects for men in different-sex households (the vast majority of whom are heterosexual married or partnered men). For men in same-sex households, we find no unintended consequences of higher cigarette taxes on other risky behaviors, and in fact we find that cigarette taxes are associated with significant improvements in self-rated health for men in same-sex households. These results suggest that the sizable disparities in adult smoking rates between heterosexual and sexual minority men would have been even larger in the absence of stricter tobacco control policy. However, in line with previous research indicating that cigarette taxes have 'lost their bite', we find no significant relationship between cigarette taxes and sexual minority smoking in more recent years.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Christopher S. Carpenter","Dario Sansone"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102492","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-104b2035fd8d1b37","title":"Trust, Beliefs and Cooperation: Excavating a Foundation of Strong Economies","abstract":"One reason trust is positively correlated with standard of living across societies may be that people treat trustworthiness in sequential social dilemmas as a sign that others will also cooperate in simultaneous collective action problems, and trust tends to correlate with trustworthiness. Trustworthiness and cooperation may both reflect the same disposition: reciprocity. Whether trust itself predicts cooperation is less clear, a priori. We conduct a laboratory experiment and find that subjects infer cooperativeness from trustworthiness and on average cooperate more when they predict others to be more cooperative. A novel result is that subjects make the same inferences from trusting as from trustworthiness. We find that subjects’ priors entail considerable heterogeneity of trustworthiness, trust and cooperation within the population. Finally, conditional cooperation explains contributions better than guilt aversion, in our data.","wordCount":131,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Jeongbin Kim","Louis Putterman","Xinyi Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104166","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-106eb2c76649efc7","title":"Optimal information disclosure and market outcomes","abstract":"This paper addresses two central questions in markets with adverse selection: How does information impact the welfare of market participants (sellers and buyers)? Also, what is the optimal information disclosure policy and how is it affected by the planner's relative welfare weight on sellers' surplus versus consumers' surplus? We find that as a result of improved information, prices become more strongly associated with the true quality of sellers and, thus, more dispersed. This will result in higher total surplus. Furthermore, we find that better information has opposing welfare effects on consumers and producers that could lead to limited disclosure depending on the social objective and market characteristics.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Hugo A. Hopenhayn","Maryam Saeedi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te5104","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-10765215f3720efe","title":"The right amount of trust","abstract":"We investigate the relationship between individual trust and individual economic performance. We find that individual income is hump-shaped in a measure of intensity of trust beliefs. Our interpretation is that highly trusting individuals tend to assume too much social risk and to be cheated more often, ultimately performing less well than those with a belief close to the mean trustworthiness of the population. However, individuals with overly pessimistic beliefs avoid being cheated, but give up profitable opportunities, therefore underperforming. The cost of either too much or too little trust is comparable to the income lost by forgoing college. Our findings hold in large-scale international survey data, as well as inside a country with high-quality institutions, and are also supported by experimental findings.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Jeffrey V. Butler","Paola Giuliano","Luigi Guiso"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12178","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-108319ee930bf293","title":"Job creation and destruction in the digital age: Assessing heterogeneous effects across European Union countries","abstract":"Do investments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) create jobs? The literature suggests that, even if innovations are labour saving, there may be compensating mechanisms that lead to a positive employment effect. We investigate this issue using country-level data for the European Union from 1995 to 2019. The results suggest an average positive net effect of ICT investment on total employment. An increase of €100,000 in the ICT investment stock is associated with an average increase of 3.3 jobs in the European Union. However, the magnitude of the impact is heterogeneous across countries. The differences are explained by the country-specific characteristics of ICT investment (non-machine versus machine-based) and the existing skill endowment of the labour force. Moreover, the rate of return on investment expressed in terms of net job creation tends to decline over time, as the share of high-skilled workers in the market increases.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Anabela Santos","Javier Barbero","Simone Salotti","Andrea Conte"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106405","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10986ffabe36081b","title":"Trust behind bars: Measuring change in inmates’ prosocial preferences","abstract":"The paper presents the results of a Longitudinal Lab-in-the-Field Experiment implemented between September 2015 and July 2016 performed in two State Prisons in California (USA) to measure change in prosocial preferences. A subset of eligible inmates willing to undertake GRIP (Guiding Rage Into Power) program, were randomly assigned to it. The paper tests whether the participation to this program (used as a treatment in the experiments) affects prosocial preferences of participants, with specific reference to trust. The results of a Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimation procedure show that trust significantly increased in GRIP participants compared to the control group. This result is robust to alternative estimation techniques and to the inclusion of an endogenous behavioral measure of altruism.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Mario A. Maggioni","Domenico Rossignoli","Simona Beretta","Sara Balestri"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2017.12.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-109ed706e2b83433","title":"Utility model patent regime “strength” and technological development: Experiences of China and other East Asian latecomers","abstract":"This paper analyzes how strategic calibration of utility model patent regimes – which provide a type of patent right that is distinct from invention patents and is far less studied in the literature – over time is intended to facilitate technological development. To do this, the paper develops what appear to be the first indexes of utility model patent regime “strength” (divided into “strictness” and “appropriability” indexes), which it tabulates for mainland China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan per every year from the time of inception of their laws governing utility models (the first of which was in 1905) till 2016. It then analyzes these indexes via fixed effects regressions and case studies. The results show that East Asian latecomers instituted utility model patent regimes that were less strict and offered less appropriability during earlier stages of economic catch-up, likely in order to facilitate technological learning. Subsequently, the strictness of the regimes was increased as knowledge accumulation and, to some extent, technological capabilities increased and, in mainland China's case especially, as patent quality problems were experienced. It is also found that increasing the strictness of utility model patent regimes may reduce patenting in the short-term, but not the long-term. Six propositions are formulated, including the overall conclusion that successful latecomers seem to have pursued a dynamic catch-up strategy of transitioning from imitative to more sophisticated technological development by increasing both the strictness and appropriability-strength of their utility model patent regimes in conjunction with increasing knowledge accumulation and, to some extent, technological capabilities. It is suggested that mainland China might benefit from further increasing the strictness of its utility model patent regime in the future.","wordCount":274,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Dan Prud’homme"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.11.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-10a45d86bebe5b19","title":"Valuing Alternative Work Arrangements","abstract":"We employ a discrete choice experiment in the employment process for a national call center to estimate the willingness to pay distribution for alternative work arrangements relative to traditional office positions. Most workers are not willing to pay for scheduling flexibility, though a tail of workers with high valuations allows for sizable compensating differentials. The average worker is willing to give up 20 percent of wages to avoid a schedule set by an employer on short notice, and 8 percent for the option to work from home. We also document that many job-seekers are inattentive, and we account for this in estimation.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Alexandre Mas","Amanda Pallais"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161500","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-10a7ac6daf10b9e1","title":"Recessions and the stock market","abstract":"An event study approach is adopted to investigate the drivers of the stock market around recessions. First, stock prices and dividends drop contemporaneously when accounting for different timing conventions. Accordingly, stock prices do not anticipate recessions due to an economic mechanism (cash flow news). Second, the variance of price changes increases at least as much as the variance of dividend growth during recessions. This result suggests that changes in the price of risk (discount rate news) play an essential role. Implications and opportunities for standard asset pricing theories and recently proposed alternatives are also discussed.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Tim Alexander Kroencke"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.07.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10b3ffc6b8da26da","title":"Wages, Human Capital, and Barriers to Structural Transformation","abstract":"We document for 13 countries ranging from rich (Canada, United States) to poor (India, Indonesia) that average wages are considerably lower in agriculture than in the other sectors. Moreover, agriculture has less educated workers and lower Mincer returns. We view these findings through the lens of a multi-sector model in which workers differ in observed and unobserved characteristics and sectors differ in their human-capital intensities. We derive expressions for the implied barriers to the reallocation of labor out of agriculture. We find that in our sample these barriers are considerably smaller than what the macro-development literature has argued.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Berthold Herrendorf","Todd Schoellman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160236","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-10c0719559de9712","title":"Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment","abstract":"Several European countries have decided to phase out coal power generation. Emissions from electricity generation are already regulated by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), and in some countries like Germany the phaseout of coal will be accompanied with cancellation of emissions allowances. In this paper we examine the consequences of phasing out coal, for CO2 emissions, the electricity sector, and the broader economy. We show analytically how the welfare impacts for a phaseout region depend on i) whether and how allowances are canceled, ii) whether other countries join phaseout policies, and iii) terms-of-trade effects in the ETS market. Based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model for the European economy, we quantify the economic and environmental impacts of alternative phaseout scenarios, considering both unilateral and multilateral phaseouts. We find that terms-of-trade effects in the ETS market play an important role for the welfare implications across EU member states. For Germany, coal phaseout combined with unilateral cancellation of allowances is found to be welfare-improving if the German citizens value CO2 emissions reductions at 65 Euro per ton or more.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Christoph Böhringer","Knut Einar Rosendahl"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102658","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10c918c64b266b21","title":"Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms","abstract":"We study the impact of the 2016 Brexit referendum on UK foreign direct investment. Using the synthetic control method to construct appropriate counterfactuals, we show that by March 2019 the Leave vote had led to a 17% increase in the number of UK outward investment transactions in the remaining EU27 member states, whereas transactions in non-EU OECD countries were unaffected. These results support the hypothesis that UK companies have been setting up European subsidiaries to retain access to the EU market after Brexit. At the same time, we find that the number of EU27 investment projects in the UK has declined by around 9%, illustrating that being a smaller economy than the EU leaves the UK more exposed to the costs of economic disintegration.","wordCount":124,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Holger Breinlich","Elsa Leromain","Dennis Novy","Thomas Sampson"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103400","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10d0eedd72b1235e","title":"Intergenerational income mobility: access to top jobs, the low-pay no-pay cycle and the role of education in a common framework","abstract":"Studies of intergenerational mobility have typically focused on estimating the average persistence across generations. Here, we use the relatively new unconditional quantile regression technique to consider how intergenerational persistence varies across the distribution of sons’ earnings. We find a J-shaped relationship between parental income and sons’ earnings, with parental income a strong predictor of labour market success for those at the bottom, and to an even greater extent, the top of the earnings distribution. We explore the role early skills, education and early labour market attachment in shaping this pattern for the first time. Worryingly, we find that the association with childhood parental income dominating that of a high level of education at the top of the distribution of earnings. In this sense, education is not as meritocratic as we might hope, as those with the same detailed educational attainment still see a strong association between their earnings and their parental income. Early labour market spells out of work have lasting effects on those at the bottom, alongside parental income.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Paul Gregg","Lindsey Macmillan","Claudia Vittori"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0722-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10e97f6807987a67","title":"How does green finance promote renewable energy technology innovation? A quasi-natural experiment perspective","abstract":"The importance of green finance policies, particularly in the realm of innovation in renewable energy technologies, should not be overlooked while assessing the advancement of renewable energy development in China. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of green finance reform initiatives on the promotion of renewable energy technology innovation (RETI) within cities of China. To accomplish this objective, this study employs the 2017 Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones (GFRIPZ) policy as a quasi-natural experiment. A difference-in-differences (DID) model is employed to construct the study framework. The research findings highlight that the implementation of pilot zones has resulted in a substantial and favorable influence on RETI. Moreover, the observable effectiveness of this phenomenon in fostering RETI is predominantly observed in the eastern region of China, small-scale cities, and locations characterized by stringent environmental restrictions. Additionally, our findings demonstrate that this particular policy has an indirect impact on promoting RETI. This is achieved through the improvement of the allocation of financial resources dedicated to green initiatives. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to promote sustainable energy innovation and green development.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Rabindra Nepal","Yang Liu","Jianda Wang","Kangyin Dong"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107576","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10e9c613932b84e7","title":"Do Nudges Reduce Borrowing and Consumer Confusion in the Credit Card Market?","abstract":"We study nudges that turn out to have precise null effects in reducing long‐run credit card debt. We test nudges across two field experiments covering 183,441 UK cardholders. Our first experiment studies nudges added to monthly credit card statements. Our second experiment studies letters and email nudges (separate from monthly statements) sent to cardholders who signed up to automatically pay the minimum required payment. In a follow‐up survey to our second experiment, we find that 96% of respondents underestimate the time it would take to fully repay a debt if the cardholder made only the minimum required payment. The nudges reduce this confusion, but underestimation remains overwhelmingly common.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Paul Adams","Benedict Guttman‐Kenney","Lucy Hayes","Stefan Hunt","David Laibson","Neil Stewart"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12427","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10f551d50377d5bf","title":"Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty","abstract":"Uncertainty about future policy rates plays a crucial role for the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets. We demonstrate this using event studies of FOMC announcements and a new model-free uncertainty measure based on derivatives. Over the ‘FOMC uncertainty cycle’ announcements systematically resolve uncertainty, which then gradually ramps up again. Changes in monetary policy uncertainty around FOMC announcements—often due to forward guidance—have pronounced effects on asset prices that are distinct from the effects of conventional policy surprises. The level of uncertainty determines the magnitude of financial market reactions to surprises about the path of policy rates.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Michael D. Bauer","Aeimit Lakdawala","Philippe Mueller"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab086","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-10f57930a0e77669","title":"Asymptotic Behavior of a <i>t</i>-Test Robust to Cluster Heterogeneity","abstract":"For a cluster-robust t-statistic under cluster heterogeneity we establish that the cluster-robust t-statistic has a gaussian asymptotic null distribution and develop the effective number of clusters, which scales down the actual number of clusters, as a guide to the behavior of the test statistic. The implications for hypothesis testing in applied work are that the number of clusters, rather than the number of observations, should be reported as the sample size, and the effective number of clusters should be reported to guide inference. If the effective number of clusters is large, testing based on critical values from a normal distribution is appropriate.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Andrew V. Carter","Kevin Schnepel","Douglas G. Steigerwald"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00639","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-10f98b0be69fe635","title":"The economic contribution of the “C” in ICT: Evidence from OECD countries","abstract":"Numerous studies have documented the contribution of ICT to growth. Less has been done on the contribution of communications technology, the “C” in ICT. We construct an international dataset of fourteen OECD countries and present contributions to growth for each ICT asset (IT hardware, CT equipment and software) using alternative ICT deflators. Using each country’s deflator we find that the contribution of CT capital deepening to productivity growth is lower in the EU than the US. Thus we ask: is that lower contribution due to a lower rate of CT investment or differing sources and methods for measurement of price change? We find that: (a) there are still considerable disparities in measures of ICT price change across countries; (b) in terms of growth-accounting, price harmonisation has a greater impact on the measured contributions of IT hardware and software in the EU relative to the US, than that of CT equipment; over 1996–2013, harmonising investment prices explains just 15% of the gap in the EU CT contribution relative to the US, compared to 25% for IT hardware; (c) over 1996–2013, CT capital deepening accounted for 0.11% pa (6% as a share) of labour productivity growth (LPG) in the US, compared to 0.03% pa (2.5% of LPG) in the EU-13 when using national accounts deflators; and (d) using OECD harmonised deflators, the figure for the EU-13 is raised to 0.04% pa (4% of LPG).","wordCount":232,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Peter Goodridge","Jonathan Haskel","Harald Edquist"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-10fb4c7c795aca01","title":"The optimal defense of networks of targets","abstract":"This paper examines a game‐theoretic model of attack and defense of multiple networks of targets in which there exist intranetwork strategic complementarities among targets. The defender's objective is to successfully defend all the networks and the attacker's objective is to successfully attack at least one network of targets. Although there are multiple equilibria, we characterize correlation structures in the allocations of forces across targets that arise in all equilibria. For example, in all equilibria the attacker utilizes a stochastic “guerrilla warfare” strategy in which a single random network is attacked.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Dan Kovenock","Brian Roberson"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12565","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1105161a265f614d","title":"Housing Price Booms and Crowding-Out Effects in Bank Lending","abstract":"Analyzing the period 1988–2006, we document that banks that are active in strong housing markets increase mortgage lending and decrease commercial lending. Firms that borrow from these banks have significantly lower investment. This is especially pronounced for firms that are more capital constrained or borrow from more-constrained banks. Various extensions and robustness analyses are consistent with the interpretation that commercial loans were crowded out by banks responding to profitable opportunities in mortgage lending, rather than with a demand-based interpretation. The results suggest that housing prices appreciations have negative spillovers to the real economy, which were overlooked thus far.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Indraneel Chakraborty","Itay Goldstein","Andrew MacKinlay"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-110b947f12f4e548","title":"Health screening for emerging non-communicable disease burdens among the global poor: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"Evidence for the effectiveness of population health screenings to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases in low-income countries remains very limited. We investigate the sustained effects of a health screening in Malawi where individuals received a referral letter if they had elevated blood pressure. Using a regression discontinuity design and a matching estimator, we find that receiving a referral letter reduced blood pressure and the probability of being hypertensive by about 22 percentage points four years later. These lasting effects are explained by a 20 percentage points increase in the probability of being diagnosed with hypertension. There is also evidence of an increase in the uptake of medication, while we do not identify improvements in hypertension-related knowledge or risk behaviors. On the contrary, we find an increase in sugar intake and a decrease in physical activity both of which are considered risky behaviors in Western contexts. The health screening had some positive effects on mental health. Overall, this study suggests that population-based hypertension screening interventions are an effective tool to improve health in low-income contexts.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Alberto Ciancio","Fabrice Kämpfen","Hans‐Peter Kohler","Iliana V. Kohler"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/view/author/63172.html>","license":"cc-by-sa"},{"id":"public-110df6fbe7da993c","title":"Adaptation to climate change: Air-conditioning and the role of remittances","abstract":"Do remittances improve the ability of households to adapt to global warming? We try to answer this question by studying the behaviours of households in Mexico, a country that experiences a large and stable flow of remittances. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find an important role of remittances in the climate adaptation process. Remittances are used for adopting air-conditioning, which is an important cooling device for responding to high temperatures and to maintain thermal comfort at home. We exploit climate and income heterogeneity by showing that large differences exist in the use of remittances for climate adaptation between coastal and inland regions, as well as among different income groups. We conclude by quantifying the overall increase in welfare that households attain by adopting air-conditioning.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Teresa Randazzo","Filippo Pavanello","Enrica De Cian"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102818","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1119b25d8ae94734","title":"Financial Regulation in a Quantitative Model of the Modern Banking System","abstract":"How does the shadow banking system respond to changes in capital regulation of commercial banks? We propose a quantitative general equilibrium model with regulated and unregulated banks to study the unintended consequences of regulation. Tighter capital requirements for regulated banks cause higher convenience yield on debt of all banks, leading to higher shadow bank leverage and a larger shadow banking sector. At the same time, tighter regulation eliminates the subsidies to commercial banks from deposit insurance, reducing the competitive pressures on shadow banks to take risks. The net effect is a safer financial system with more shadow banking. Calibrating the model to data on financial institutions in the US, the optimal capital requirement is around 16$\\%$.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Juliane Begenau","Tim Landvoigt"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab088","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-111d7a7f43ba0c3a","title":"FDI inflows in Europe: Does investment promotion work?","abstract":"Can active investment promotion efforts attract FDI towards areas and sectors that would not otherwise be targeted? This paper leverages an ad hoc survey on national and sub-national Investment Promotion Agencies (IPAs) in Europe and applies state-of-the-art policy evaluation methods to estimate the impact of IPAs on FDI attraction. The results show that FDI responds to IPAs even in advanced economies. Sub-national IPAs, operating in closer proximity to investors' operations, attract FDI in particular towards less developed areas where market and institutional failures are stronger. IPAs influence FDI over and above other policies targeting the general economic improvement of the host economies. Impacts are concentrated in knowledge-intensive sectors where collaborative systemic conditions are more relevant. IPAs work best for less experienced companies - ‘occasional’ investors - more likely to suffer from institutional failures. Finally, IPAs are equally effective in attracting companies from both outside and inside the EU Single Market even if the latter are less likely to suffer from regulatory or information asymmetries. Overall, this evidence sheds new light on the role of sub-national IPAs as local ‘institutional plumbers’ in support of foreign investors and their operations.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Riccardo Crescenzi","Marco Di Cataldo","Mara Giua"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103497","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-111d9f170a7262b6","title":"Expected and realized returns in conditional asset pricing models: A new testing approach","abstract":"We develop a new approach for testing conditional asset pricing models that avoids the issues in using realized returns as a proxy for expected returns. Testable restrictions are developed by asking what realized returns we would observe, given the pricing model under scrutiny. The new reverse testing approach is used to test the Merton ICAPM and a long-standing risk–return puzzle: the price of market risk has often turned out to be insignificant and at times even negative. The results from the new testing approach on US data give strong support for a positive relationship between conditional variance and the equity premium.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Jan Antell","Mika Vaihekoski"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.04.001","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-11208c2b6e85ef3c","title":"Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference","abstract":"We study inference in shift-share regression designs, such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of sectoral shocks, using regional sector shares as weights. We conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift-share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across U.S. commuting zones. Tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5% nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55% of the placebo samples. We use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares, independent of their geographic location. We derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross-regional correlation in the regression residuals. We show using popular applications of shift-share designs that our methods may lead to substantially wider confidence intervals in practice.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Rodrigo Adão","Michal Kolesár","Eduardo Morales"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz025","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-112124e3b1b48d26","title":"The impact of COVID-19 vaccination for mental well-being","abstract":"We examine the impact of vaccination against Covid-19 for mental health. Our estimates suggest that vaccination led to a significant and substantive improvement in mental health. These positive impacts were however concentrated on those most at risk of hospitalisation and death from Covid-19, namely older and clinically vulnerable groups. Our proposed explanation is that in the absence of vaccination, anxiety about contracting COVID-19 has a deleterious impact on the mental health of this cohort. On the other hand, vaccination was much less impactful for the mental health of those least at risk from Covid-19. This may help to explain vaccine hesitancy amongst young people. For this group, a lack of uptake may be principally due to a lack of perceived benefits (and indeed perceived costs) for their own well-being as opposed to vaccine hesitancy.","wordCount":134,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Kausik Chaudhuri","Peter Howley"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104293","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-112b1f3add128f2a","title":"Free to Choose: Can School Choice Reduce Student Achievement?","abstract":"A central argument for school choice is that parents can choose schools wisely. This principle may underlie why lottery-based school evaluations have almost always reported positive or zero achievement effects. This paper reports on a striking counterexample to these results. We use randomized lotteries to evaluate the Louisiana Scholarship Program, a voucher plan that provides public funds for disadvantaged students to attend private schools. LSP participation lowers math scores by 0.4 standard deviations and also reduces achievement in reading, science, and social studies. These effects may be due in part to selection of low-quality private schools into the program.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Atila Abdulkadiroğlu","Parag A. Pathak","Christopher R. Walters"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160634","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-11388a0854d5fd6c","title":"The Real Effects of Credit Ratings: The Sovereign Ceiling Channel","abstract":"We show that sovereign debt impairments can have a significant effect on financial markets and real economies through a credit ratings channel. Specifically, we find that firms reduce their investment and reliance on credit markets due to a rising cost of debt capital following a sovereign rating downgrade. We identify these effects by exploiting exogenous variation in corporate ratings due to rating agencies' sovereign ceiling policies, which require that firms' ratings remain at or below the sovereign rating of their country of domicile.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Heitor Almeida","Igor Cunha","Miguel A. Ferreira","Felipe Restrepo"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12434","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-114f7d914ff109ef","title":"The Behavioralist Goes to School: Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Educational Performance","abstract":"We explore the power of behavioral economics to influence the level of effort exerted by students in a low stakes testing environment. We find a substantial impact on test scores from incentives when the rewards are delivered immediately. There is suggestive evidence that rewards framed as losses outperform those framed as gains. Nonfinancial incentives can be considerably more cost-effective than financial incentives for younger students, but are less effective with older students. All motivating power of incentives vanishes when rewards are handed out with a delay. Our results suggest that the current set of incentives may lead to underinvestment.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Steven D. Levitt","John A. List","Susanne Neckermann","Sally Sadoff"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20130358","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-116308663a7db9e5","title":"The Residential Segregation of Immigrants in the United States from 1850 to 1940","abstract":"We provide the first estimates of immigrant residential segregation between 1850 and 1940 that cover the entire United States and are consistent across time and space. To do so, we adapt the Logan–Parman method to immigrants by measuring segregation based on the nativity of the next-door neighbor. In addition to providing a consistent measure of segregation, we also document new patterns such as high levels of segregation in rural areas, in small factory towns and for non-European sources. Early twentieth-century immigrants spatially assimilated at a slow rate, leaving immigrants’ lived experience distinct from natives for decades after arrival.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Kimmo Eriksson","Zachary Ward"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000536","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-117540d6a9e0b208","title":"The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote share for the Republican Party using county-level data from 1990 to 2016. Our main contribution is to show that an increase in high-skilled immigrants decreases the share of Republican votes, while an inflow of low-skilled immigrants increases it. These effects are mainly due to the indirect impact on existing citizens’ votes, and this is independent of the origin country and race of immigrants. We find that the political effect of immigration is heterogeneous across counties and depends on their skill level, public spending, and noneconomic characteristics.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Anna Maria Mayda","Giovanni Peri","Walter Steingress"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190081","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1187b10278b52a16","title":"Spillover Effects of Mass Layoffs","abstract":"Using administrative data on firms and workers in Germany, we quantify the spillover effects of mass layoffs. Our empirical strategy combines matching with an event study approach to trace employment and wages in regions hit by a mass layoff relative to suitable control regions. We find sizable and persistent negative spillover effects on the regional economy: regions, and especially firms producing in the same broad industry as the layoff plant, lose many more jobs than in the initial layoff. In contrast, negative employment effects on workers employed in the region at the time of the mass layoff are considerably smaller. Strikingly, workers younger than 50 suffer no employment losses, as geographic mobility fully shields them from the decline in local employment opportunities.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Christina Gathmann","Ines Helm","Uta Schönberg"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-118ccd4ad0a5ecf4","title":"Bayesian Inference in Spatial Stochastic Volatility Models: An Application to House Price Returns in Chicago","abstract":"In this study, we propose a spatial stochastic volatility model in which the latent log‐volatility terms follow a spatial autoregressive process. Though there is no spatial correlation in the outcome equation (the mean equation), the spatial autoregressive process defined for the log‐volatility terms introduces spatial dependence in the outcome equation. To introduce a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation algorithm, we transform the model so that the outcome equation takes the form of log‐squared terms. We approximate the distribution of the log‐squared error terms of the outcome equation with a finite mixture of normal distributions so that the transformed model turns into a linear Gaussian state‐space model. Our simulation results indicate that the Bayesian estimator has satisfactory finite sample properties. We investigate the practical usefulness of our proposed model and estimation method by using the price returns of residential properties in the broader Chicago Metropolitan area.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Süleyman Taşpınar","Osman Doğan","Jiyoung Chae","Anil K. Bera"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12425","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-11923eaf063e0dd4","title":"Decentralization and efficiency of subsidy targeting: Evidence from chiefs in rural Malawi","abstract":"Lower-income countries spend vast sums on subsidies. Beneficiaries are typically selected via either a proxy-means test (PMT) or through a decentralized identification process led by local leaders. A decentralized allocation may offer informational advantages, but may be prone to elite capture. We study this trade-off in the context of two large-scale subsidy programs in Malawi (for agricultural inputs and food) decentralized to traditional leaders (\"chiefs\") who are asked to target the needy. Using household panel data, we find that nepotism exists but has only limited mistargeting consequences. Importantly, we find that chiefs target households with higher returns to farm inputs, generating an allocation that is more productively efficient than what could be achieved through strict poverty-targeting. This could be welfare improving, since within-village redistribution is common. Productive efficiency targeting is concentrated in villages with above-median levels of redistribution.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Maria Pía Basurto","Pascaline Dupas","Jonathan Robinson"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.07.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1192e5700549a9ce","title":"Keeping Secrets: The Economics of Access Deterrence","abstract":"Keeping valuable secrets requires costly protection efforts. Breaking them requires costly search efforts. In a dynamic model in which the value of the secret decreases with the number of those holding it, we examine the secret holders' protection decisions and the secret breakers' timing of entry, showing that the original secret holder's payoff can be very high, even when protection appears weak, with implications for innovators' profits from unpatented innovations. We show that the path of entry will be characterized by two waves, the first of protected entry followed by a waiting period, and a second wave of unprotected entry.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Emeric Henry","Francisco Ruiz‐Aliseda"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140190","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1194b69e3d30ccbf","title":"Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy","abstract":"We employ a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New Keynesian model with recursive preferences replicates these state-contingent responses when approximated to third order around its risky steady state due to a stronger upward nominal pricing bias in recessions than in expansions. Empirical evidence supports this state-contingent channel, and we show that it can greatly reduce the ability of systematic monetary policy to stabilize output during recessions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Martin Møller Andreasen","Giovanni Caggiano","Efrem Castelnuovo","Giovanni Pellegrino"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.10.014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-11a0552580664bba","title":"The Lazarus drug: the impact of antiretroviral therapy on economic growth","abstract":"Does better population health lead to growth in per capita income? Theory is ambiguous and empirical evidence is very limited. In 2001, a steep fall in antiretroviral (ARV) drug prices triggered rapid and massive expansion of ARV therapy coverage in lower-income countries. Exploiting the sharp resultant changes in population health, I show that ARV therapy coverage expansion led to growth in GDP per capita. The positive effects on growth most likely persist for around four years. ARV therapy coverage expansion could explain around a third of the sub-Saharan African “growth miracle”.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Anna Tompsett"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102409","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-11a585492c73df5a","title":"Monthly unconditional income supplements starting at birth: Experiences among mothers of young children with low incomes in the U.S.","abstract":"Recently, U.S. advocates and funders have supported direct cash transfers for individuals and families as an efficient, immediate, and non-paternalistic path to poverty alleviation. Open questions remain, however, about their implementation. We address these using data from debit card transactions, customer service call-line logs, and in-depth interviews from a randomized control study of a monthly unconditional cash gift delivered via debit card to mothers of young children living near the federal poverty line. Because much of the impact of the intervention occurs through mothers' decisions about how to allocate the Baby's First Years (BFY) money, we argue that implementation science must recognize the role of policy targets in implementing policy, not just in terms of policy outcomes but also policy implementation processes. Further, our analysis shows that mothers experience key aspects of the cash intervention's design as intended: they viewed the cash gift as unconditional and knew the money was reliable and would continue monthly, receiving the correct amount with few incidents. Delivering funds via debit card worked well, offering mothers flexibility in purchasing. We also illuminate how design features shaped mothers' experiences. First, although they knew it was unconditional, the social meaning of the BFY money to mothers-seen as \"the baby's money\"-shaped their engagement with and allocation of it. Second, low public visibility of mothers' receipt of this money limited the financial demands or requests from others, potentially facilitating more agency over and a greater ability to use the money as they chose, without claims from kin.","wordCount":248,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Sarah Halpern‐Meekin","Lisa A. Gennetian","Jill Hoiting","Laura Stilwell","Lauren Meyer"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22571","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-11b210b7e3a9cc82","title":"Growth under Extractive Institutions? Latin American Per Capita GDP in Colonial Times","abstract":"This article presents new estimations of per capita GDP in colonial times for the two pillars of the Spanish empire: Mexico and Peru. We find dynamic economies as evidenced by increasing real wages, urbanization, and silver mining. Their growth trajectories are such that both regions reduced the gap with respect to Spain; Mexico even achieved parity at times. While experiencing swings in growth, the notable turning point is in 1780s as bottlenecks in production and later, the independence wars reduced economic activity. Our results question the notion that colonial institutions impoverished Latin America.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Leticia Arroyo Abad","Jan Luiten van Zanden"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000954","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-11caf2b98d53ac5c","title":"Sustainable finance versus environmental policy: Does greenwashing justify a taxonomy for sustainable investments?","abstract":"Our paper analyzes whether a planner should design a taxonomy for sustainable investment products when conventional tools for environmental regulation can also be used to address externalities arising from firm production. We first show that the private market provision of ESG funds marketed to retail investors involves greenwashing, so that a mandatory taxonomy is necessary to generate real effects of sustainable finance. However, the introduction of such a taxonomy can only improve welfare, on top of optimally chosen environmental regulation, if financial frictions constrain socially valuable economic activity. Otherwise, environmental policy alone is sufficient to optimally address externalities.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Roman Inderst","Marcus M. Opp"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103954","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-11cd5f3c3a289698","title":"Democracy, autocracy, and sovereign debt: How polity influenced country risk on the peripheries of the global economy, 1870–1913","abstract":"This article tests the influential democratic advantage hypothesis – that democratic governments have historically borrowed more cheaply than autocratic governments – in the context of the first financial globalization, from circa 1870 to 1913. We construct indicators of political regime types, then regress government bond spreads of 27 independent capital-importing countries on them. In contrast with the mainstream literature, the results suggest that democracies were associated with higher country risk. Our findings indicate that autocratic regimes had a significant advantage: democracies paid 5.7% more on their debt than autocracies, controlling for several financial and political variables. This gap is the equivalent of 35.4% of the negative effect defaults had on credit costs. Our conclusions hold when allowing for different definitions of political regime type and bond spreads. The correlations identified also find support in qualitative evidence, according to which creditors favored autocracies for being politically more stable than democracies.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Ali Coşkun Tunçer","Leonardo Weller"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101449","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-11d4a81a8a7f9ff8","title":"Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday","abstract":"We study the effect of financial resources on decision-making. Low-income U.S. households are randomly assigned to receive an online survey before or after payday. The survey collects measures of cognitive function and administers risk and intertemporal choice tasks. The study design generates variation in cash, checking and savings balances, and expenditures. Before-payday participants behave as if they are more present-biased when making intertemporal choices about monetary rewards but not when making intertemporal choices about non-monetary real-effort tasks. Nor do we find before-after differences in risk-taking, the quality of decision-making, the performance in cognitive function tasks, or in heuristic judgments.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Leandro Carvalho","Stephan Meier","Stephanie W. Wang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20140481","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-11d8e6a16a75eef6","title":"Landownership concentration and human capital accumulation in post-unification Italy","abstract":"This paper contributes to the debate on institutions and economic development by assessing the relationship between landownership concentration and education. Using historical data at both the district and province levels in post-unification Italy from 1871 to 1921, I find evidence of an adverse effect of land inequality on literacy rates. Instrumental variable estimates using malaria pervasiveness as a source of exogenous variation rule out concerns regarding potential endogeneity. Exploration of the panel dimension of the data reveals that several shocks during this period affected the relationship between land inequality and literacy rates. In addition, this paper provides insights into the mechanism behind this relationship by analyzing the impact on intermediate outputs, such as enrollment rates in primary school, child-teacher ratio, school density, child labor, and municipality expenditures. Land inequality may have adversely affected literacy rates not only by influencing schooling supply through the political process but also through the private demand for education.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Vitantonio Mariella"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00907-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-11e677859f9729cb","title":"Scaling up sanitation: Evidence from an RCT in Indonesia","abstract":"We investigate the impacts of a widely used sanitation intervention, Community-Led Total Sanitation, which was implemented at scale across rural areas of Indonesia with a randomized controlled trial to evaluate its effectiveness. The program resulted in modest increases in toilet construction, decreased community tolerance of open defecation and reduced roundworm infestations in children. However, there was no impact on anemia, height or weight. We find important heterogeneity along three dimensions: (1) poverty—poorer households are limited in their ability to improve sanitation; (2) implementer identity—scale up involves local governments taking over implementation from World Bank contractors yet no sanitation and health benefits accrue in villages with local government implementation; and (3) initial levels of social capital—villages with high initial social capital built toilets whereas the community-led approach was counterproductive in low social capital villages with fewer toilets being built.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Lisa Cameron","Susan Olivia","Manisha Shah"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-11edd2c80dd55055","title":"Barriers to real-time electricity pricing: Evidence from New Zealand","abstract":"Consumers make now-or-never decisions rather than strategically timing adoption. This paper studies the introduction of real-time electricity pricing in the New Zealand residential retail market to understand why its market share remained below 1.25%. We use rich panel data of all retail switches between 2014 and 2018 and an unexpected wholesale price spike to study adoption and attrition. Exploiting the staggered roll-out of real-time pricing in different locations we find that attrition decreases with experience. We also find that prospective adopters are present biased. The combination of these findings explains why adoption stalled and shows that wholesale price spikes pose a serious threat to widespread adoption of real-time pricing.","wordCount":109,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["charles Pebereau","Kevin Remmy"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102979","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-11f628326cf53e0c","title":"Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency","abstract":"We explore the interplay between trade-invoicing patterns and the pricing of safe assets in different currencies. Our theory highlights the following points: (i) a currency’s role as a unit of account for invoicing decisions is complementary to its role as a safe store of value; (ii) this complementarity can lead to the emergence of a single dominant currency in trade invoicing and global banking, even when multiple large candidate countries share similar economic fundamentals; (iii) firms in emerging-market countries endogenously take on currency mismatches by borrowing in the dominant currency; and (iv) the expected return on dominant-currency safe assets is lower than that on similarly safe assets denominated in other currencies, thereby bestowing an “exorbitant privilege” on the dominant currency. The theory thus provides a unified explanation for why a dominant currency is so heavily used in both trade invoicing and in global finance.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Gita Gopinath","Jeremy C. Stein"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa036","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-11f8a4509b05f51c","title":"Land Inequality and Demographic Outcomes: The Relationship between Access to Land and the Demographic System in 19th-century Rural Tuscany","abstract":"Higher vulnerability and sensitiveness of day laborers to short-term stress In pre-industrial rural Italy, the disparities among smallholders, sharecroppers, and day laborers were starkly defined by their unequal access to land, which significantly influenced their living standards, family structures, and socioeconomic conditions. This paper uses nominative data from 1819 to 1859 to first explore how the different peasant categories adjusted their demographic behaviors according to their tie to the land, and then how they were possibly modified when short-term stressors, such as price increase and/or epidemics, altered the existing equilibrium. The results reveal that the groups with access to land where less vulnerable and less susceptible to economic crises compared to day laborers, who relied entirely on the market for essential food supplies. During periods of high prices, day laborers experienced a rapid decline in their economic situation, leading to increased mortality, migration, and postponement of marriages. However, access to land was also associated with a demographic pattern aimed at both controlling household consumption and maximizing the male labor force. This included strict control over marriages, increased fertility, and selective mobility, all of which could intensify during crises and periods of rising prices. These findings underscore the inadequacy of the simplistic classification of landed versus landless groups, emphasizing the necessity for a more sophisticated understanding of households based on their relationship and connections with the land.","wordCount":226,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Matteo Manfredini","Alessio Fornasin","Marco Breschi"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101668","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1201f5c58a6ee50d","title":"To Replicate or Not to Replicate? Exploring Reproducibility in Economics through the Lens of a Model and a Pilot Study","abstract":"The sciences are in an era of an alleged ‘credibility crisis’. In this study, we discuss the reproducibility of empirical results, focusing on economics research. By combining theory and empirical evidence, we discuss the import of replication studies, and whether they improve our confidence in novel findings. The theory sheds light on the importance of replications, even when replications are subject to bias. We then present a pilot meta-study of replication in experimental economics, a subfield serving as a positive benchmark for investigating the credibility of economics. Our meta-study highlights certain difficulties when applying meta-research to systematise the economics literature.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Zacharias Maniadis","Fabio Tufano","John A. List"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/889509","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-120a5ecb93af3278","title":"Print culture and economic constraints: A quantitative analysis of book prices in eighteenth-century Britain","abstract":"Who could afford books in the late early-modern period? We explore how prices related to the demand for books in eighteenth-century Britain by analysing extensive bibliographic and socio-economic data based on Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Our results quantify in financial terms the difficulty of buying print products faced by most British households in the eighteenth century, and how this related to the varying levels of supply across price segments. We found no evidence of the well known claim that legislation would have led to lower prices. The inadequate supply and high cost of books make it likely that only higher-income households bought them regularly from the primary market.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Iiro Tiihonen","Leo Lahti","Mikko Tolonen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101614","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1223915779ce3394","title":"Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs","abstract":"This paper develops methods for estimating and forecasting in Bayesian panel vector autoregressions of large dimensions with time‐varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We exploit a hierarchical prior that takes into account possible pooling restrictions involving both VAR coefficients and the error covariance matrix, and propose a Bayesian dynamic learning procedure that controls for various sources of model uncertainty. We tackle computational concerns by means of a simulation‐free algorithm that relies on analytical approximations to the posterior. We use our methods to forecast inflation rates in the eurozone and show that these forecasts are superior to alternative methods for large vector autoregressions.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Gary Koop","Dimitris Korobilis"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12303","license":"cc-by-sa"},{"id":"public-122dda7636926413","title":"Measuring rural welfare in colonial Africa: did Uganda's smallholders thrive?","abstract":"Recent scholarship on historical welfare development in Sub‐Saharan Africa has uncovered long‐term trends in standards of living. How the majority of rural dwellers fared, however, remains largely elusive. This study develops a new approach to reconstruct rural living standards in a historical context. It builds upon a well‐established real wage literature, but moves beyond it to capture rural realities, employing sub‐national rural survey, census, and price data. The approach is applied to a case study of colonial and early post‐colonial Uganda (1915–70). The case study yields a number of findings. While the expanding smallholder‐based cash crop sector established itself as the backbone of Uganda's colonial economy, farm characteristics remained largely stagnant after the initial adoption of cash crops. Smallholders maintained living standards well above subsistence level, and while the profitability of cash crops was low, their cultivation provided a reliable source of cash income. Around the time of decolonization, unskilled wages rose rapidly while farm incomes lagged behind. As a result, an urban–rural income reversal took place. The study also reveals considerable differences within Uganda. Smallholders in Uganda's banana regions required fewer labour inputs to maintain a farm income than their grain‐farming counterparts, creating opportunities for additional income generation and livelihood diversification.","wordCount":202,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Michiel de Haas"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12377","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-12495257b9ac13d3","title":"Transfer pricing regulation and tax competition","abstract":"The paper analyzes multinational enterprises' incentives to manipulate internal transfer prices to take advantage of tax differences across countries, and implications of transfer-pricing regulations as a countermeasure against such profit shifting. We find that tax-motivated foreign direct investment (FDI) may entail inefficient internal production but may benefit consumers. Thus, encouraging transfer-pricing behavior to some extent can enhance social welfare. Furthermore, we consider tax competition between two countries to explore its interplay with transfer-pricing regulations. We show that the FDI source country will be willing to set a higher tax rate and tolerate some profit shifting to a tax haven country if the regulation is tight enough. We also indicate a novel mechanism through which it is the larger country that undertakes tax-motivated FDI, the pattern we often observe in reality.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Jay Pil Choi","Taiji Furusawa","Jota Ishikawa"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103367","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-124ba7f54de99a6d","title":"Teacher shortages, the business cycle, and teacher demand: A long-run perspective","abstract":"This paper examines the historical relationships between teacher shortages, teacher demand, and the business cycle using Norwegian data covering a period of >160 years (1861–2024). We find a procyclical pattern in teacher shortages, in particular for the post-WW2 period. The post-WW2 results imply that doubling the unemployment rate reduces teacher shortage by about 10 percent. The finding corroborates evidence from other countries that the public sector hires employees with higher skills during recessions than during booms. In addition, teacher demand increases teacher shortages, where the finding is similar in OLS-models, IV-models, and a panel data approach for the pre-WW2 period. The results indicate that a ten percent increase in teacher demand raises teacher shortages by about 30 percent in the pre-WW2 period and about 40 percent in the post-WW2 period. The increased effects of teacher demand and the business cycles on teacher shortages over the 160-year-long period appear consistent with the centralization of school financing and teacher wage setting that took place after WW2.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Torberg Falch","Bjarne Strøm"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101714","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-124bef9f1be14623","title":"What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?","abstract":"We study individual male earnings dynamics over the life cycle using panel data on millions of U.S. workers. Using nonparametric methods, we first show that the distribution of earnings changes exhibits substantial deviations from lognormality, such as negative skewness and very high kurtosis. Further, the extent of these nonnormalities varies significantly with age and earnings level, peaking around age 50 and between the 70th and 90th percentiles of the earnings distribution. Second, we estimate nonparametric impulse response functions and find important asymmetries: Positive changes for high‐income individuals are quite transitory, whereas negative ones are very persistent; the opposite is true for low‐income individuals. Third, we turn to long‐run outcomes and find substantial heterogeneity in the cumulative growth rates of earnings and the total number of years individuals spend nonemployed between ages 25 and 55. Finally, by targeting these rich sets of moments, we estimate stochastic processes for earnings that range from the simple to the complex. Our preferred specification features normal mixture innovations to both persistent and transitory components and includes state‐dependent long‐term nonemployment shocks with a realization probability that varies with age and earnings.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Fatih Guvenen","Fatih Karahan","Serdar Ozkan","Jae Song"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14603","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-125045ca2a073c79","title":"Review: Meta-analysis of the association between production diversity, diets, and nutrition in smallholder farm households","abstract":"Undernutrition and low dietary diversity remain big problems in many developing countries. A large proportion of the people affected are smallholder farmers. Hence, it is often assumed that further diversifying small-farm production would be a good strategy to improve nutrition, but the evidence is mixed. We systematically review studies that have analyzed associations between production diversity, dietary diversity, and nutrition in smallholder households and provide a meta-analysis of estimated effects. We identified 45 original studies reporting results from 26 countries and using various indicators of diets and nutrition. While in the majority of these studies positive results are highlighted, less than 20% of the studies report consistently positive and significant associations between production diversity and dietary diversity and/or nutrition. Around 60% report positive associations only for certain subsamples or indicators, the rest found no significant associations at all. The average marginal effect of production diversity on dietary diversity is positive but small. The mean effect of 0.062 implies that farms would have to produce 16 additional crop or livestock species to increase dietary diversity by one food group. The mean effect is somewhat larger in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions, but even in Africa farms would have to produce around 9 additional species to increase dietary diversity by one food group. While results may look differently under very specific conditions, there is little evidence to support the assumption that increasing farm production diversity is a highly effective strategy to improve smallholder diets and nutrition in most or all situations.","wordCount":250,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Kibrom T. Sibhatu","Matin Qaim"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.04.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-12556be5201816e6","title":"Does Teacher Training Actually Work? Evidence from a Large-Scale Randomized Evaluation of a National Teacher Training Program","abstract":"Despite massive investments in teacher professional development (PD) programs in developing countries, there is little evidence on their effectiveness. We present results of a large-scale, randomized evaluation of a national PD program in China in which teachers were randomized to receive PD; PD plus follow-up; PD plus evaluation of the command of PD content; or no PD. Precise estimates indicate PD and associated interventions failed to improve teacher and student outcomes after one year. A detailed analysis of the causal chain shows teachers find PD content to be overly theoretical, and PD delivery too rote and passive, to be useful.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Prashant Loyalka","Anna Popova","Guirong Li","Zhaolei Shi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170226","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-125b8c0c257de0a8","title":"Kicking the Habit: What Makes and Breaks Farmers' Intentions to Reduce Pesticide Use?","abstract":"There is a growing concern in society about the continuing intensive usage of pesticides in farming and its effects on environmental and human health. Insight in the intentions of farmers to reduce pesticide use may help identify pathways towards farming systems with reduced environmental impacts. We used the Reasoned Action Approach to identify which social-psychological constructs determine farmers' intentions to decrease pesticide use. We analysed 681 responses to an online survey to assess which constructs drive intention, and identified which beliefs pose barriers and drive the motivation of farmers to decrease pesticide use. Our results show that the intention to reduce pesticide use is strongly determined by whether other farmers also act. Furthermore, farmers perceive limited capacity and autonomy to reduce pesticide use, and motivations to reduce pesticide use were based on environmental considerations. Finally, decreasing pesticide use was considered risky, but the relative importance of risk attitude was offset by the environmental considerations of farmers. This indicates that farmers need successful examples of how to decrease pesticide use, either via exchange with peer farmers or knowledge provisioning on alternative pest control methods. These insights may be useful to direct policy making to influence farmers' intentions to decrease pesticide use.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Lieneke Bakker","Jaap Sok","Wopke van der Werf","Felix J.J.A. Bianchi"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106868","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-126bd04fad8a3f7f","title":"Work incentives of medicaid beneficiaries and the role of asset testing","abstract":"Should asset testing be used in means‐tested programs? Focusing on Medicaid, we show that in the asymmetric information environment, there is a positive role for asset testing. Our tool is a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. We find that 23% of Medicaid enrollees do not work in order to be eligible. These distortions are costly: If Medicaid eligibility could be linked to (unobservable) productivity, this results in substantial welfare gains. We show that asset testing can achieve a similar outcome when asset limits are allowed to be different for workers and nonworkers.","wordCount":93,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Svetlana Pashchenko","Ponpoje Porapakkarm"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12247","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-128670a10dd1f7e6","title":"Do Risk Preferences Change? Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake","abstract":"We investigate whether individuals' risk preferences change after experiencing a natural disaster, specifically, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Exploiting the panels of nationally representative surveys on risk preferences, we find that men who experienced greater intensity of the earthquake became more risk tolerant a year after the Earthquake. Interestingly, the effects on men's risk preferences are persistent even five years after the Earthquake at almost the same magnitude as those shortly after the Earthquake. Furthermore, these men gamble more, which is consistent with the direction of changes in risk preferences. We find no such pattern for women.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Chie Hanaoka","Hitoshi Shigeoka","Yasutora Watanabe"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170048","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1287eef356d3c3a8","title":"Female entrepreneurship, financial frictions and capital misallocation in the US","abstract":"We document and quantify the effect of a gender gap in credit access on both entrepreneurship and input misallocation in the US. Female entrepreneurs are found to be more likely to face a rejection on their loan applications and to have a higher average product of capital, a sign of gender-driven capital misallocation that decreases in female-led firms’ access to finance. These results are not driven by differences in observable individual or businesses characteristics. Calibrating a heterogeneous agents model of entrepreneurship to the US economy, we show that the observed gap in credit access explains the bulk of the gender differences in capital allocation across firms. Eliminating such credit imbalance is estimated to potentially increase output by 4%, and to reduce capital misallocation by 12%.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Marta Morazzoni","Andrea Sy"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.03.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-12895dafb468e217","title":"Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma","abstract":"This paper analyses the impact of past foreign aid on the recipient country's preparedness against natural disasters. We estimate the impact of past foreign aid on the occurrence of natural disasters and the death toll from disasters using data from 5089 major natural disasters in 81 developing countries between 1979 and 2012. The results suggest that past foreign aid flows crowd out the recipient's incentives to provide protective measures that decrease the likelihood and the societal impact of a disaster. The crowding‐out effect appears to be stronger in developing countries that are relatively poorer and have weaker political institutions.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Paul A. Raschky","Manijeh Schwindt"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12194","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-128cafff5d5e904f","title":"Competing to Sell the Reference Product","abstract":"In a sequential model of vertical product differentiation in which consumers are loss-averse, I analyse how firms compete to sell the reference product when they set prices. I find that there are two subgame perfect equilibria: one where the reference point for all consumers is the higher-quality product; and the other where the reference point is the lower-quality product. However, applying the risk-dominance criterion, I obtain that the sole risk-dominant equilibrium is for the higher-quality firm to sell the reference product. Since the hedonic price of the higher-quality product is the highest, consumers do not suffer any psychological disutility in the risk-dominant equilibrium.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Francisco Martínez‐Sánchez"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09950-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-12a7517b1a5ddd02","title":"Nobody’s gonna slow me down? The effects of a transportation cost shock on firm performance and behavior","abstract":"We study the firm-level responses to a substantial increase in transportation costs in the wake of a quasi-experiment that introduced tolls in a subset of Portuguese highways. Exploiting a unique dataset encompassing the universe of Portuguese private firms, we find that the introduction of tolls caused a substantial decrease in turnover (−10.2%) and productivity (−4.3%) in treated firms vis-à-vis firms in the comparison group. In response to the tolls, firms substantially cut employment-related expenses and purchases of other inputs. Labor costs were reduced by both employment cuts and a decrease in average wages. While firms did not increase inventory, there is some evidence for increased firm exit, in particular by firms in tradables sectors.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Catarina Aguiar Branco","Dirk Dohse","João Pereira dos Santos","José Tavares"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103569","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-12b378fc4d410923","title":"Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom","abstract":"We investigate whether an increase in the potential earnings of men leads to an increase in marriage and a reduction in nonmarital births by exploiting the positive economic shock associated with fracking in the 2000s. A reduced-form analysis reveals that in response to local-area fracking production, which increased wages and jobs for non-college-educated men, both marital and nonmarital birth rates increase, but marriage rates do not. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income effects on births but no associated increase in marriage. We contrast our findings to the Appalachian coal boom experience of the 1970s and 1980s.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Melissa S. Kearney","Riley Wilson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00739","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-12edaa11debdb8f8","title":"Life-Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums, and Internal Rates of Return","abstract":"Using Norwegian population panel data with nearly career-long earnings histories, we provide a detailed picture of the causal relationship between schooling and earnings over the life cycle. To address selection bias, we apply three commonly used identification strategies. We find that additional schooling gives higher lifetime earnings and a steeper age-earnings profile, in line with predictions from human capital theory. Our preferred estimates imply an internal rate of return of around 11%, suggesting that it was highly profitable to acquire additional schooling. Our analysis reveals that Mincer regressions dramatically understate the returns to schooling because key assumptions are violated.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Manudeep Bhuller","Magne Mogstad","Kjell G. Salvanes"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692509","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-12f987fbda145978","title":"Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India","abstract":"A significant amount of resources is spent every year on the improvement of transportation infrastructure in developing countries. In this paper, we investigate the effects of one such large project, the Golden Quadrilateral in India. We do so using a model of internal trade with variable markups. In contrast to the previous literature, our model incorporates several channels through which transportation infrastructure affects welfare. In particular, the model accounts for gains stemming from improvements in the allocative efficiency of the economy. We calibrate the model to the Indian manufacturing sector and find real income gains of 2.7%. We also find that allocative efficiency accounts for 7.4% of these gains. The importance of allocative efficiency varies greatly across states, and can account for up to 18% of the overall gains in some states. The remaining welfare gains are accounted for by changes in labor income, productive efficiency, and average markups that affect states’ terms of trade.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Jose Asturias","Manuel García‐Santana","Roberto Ramos"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy039","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-12ff0afe7bc58c1d","title":"Overleveraging, financial fragility, and the banking–macro link: Theory and empirical evidence","abstract":"We analyze the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical model, we demonstrate that, in the presence of regime-dependent macro feedback relations, a highly leveraged banking system can result in instabilities and downward spirals. To investigate this question empirically, we analyze time series from eight advanced economies on industrial production and the components of the country-specific financial stress indices constructed by the IMF. Employing nonlinear, multiregime vector autoregressions, we examine how industrial production is affected by the individual risk drivers making up the indices. Our results strongly suggest that financial-sector stress has a substantial, nonlinear influence on economic activity and that individual risk drivers affect output rather differently across stress regimes and across groups of countries.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Stefan Mittnik","Willi Semmler"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000080","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1318b97bcb663664","title":"How useful are commercial corporate governance ratings? Evidence from emerging markets","abstract":"A central issue in evaluating the effects of firm-level corporate governance (FLCG) is how to measure it. We focus here on emerging markets (EMs). One common approach to measuring FLCG uses country-specific (CSIs), tailored to each country's laws and institutions. Several studies report that CSIs can predict firm outcomes in a panel data framework with two-way (firm and time) fixed effects (TWFE). An alternate approach uses commercial CG ratings (CCGRs) that apply the same or similar elements across many countries. We assess the three best available CCGRs covering EMs (Asset4, Thomson Reuters, and MSCI), and find that they do not predict firm outcomes with TWFE in EMs. We also provide evidence that the likely cause for CCGRs' lack of performance is their poor construction rather than the inability of FLCG measures to predict outcomes. CSI-based studies suggest that disclosure (beyond country-mandated minimums) is the FLCG aspect that most consistently predicts firm outcomes in EMs. Yet, these CCGRs have no or minimal measures of disclosure. Other important limitations of the CCGRs include the use of elements that are U.S.-centric; reflect firm outcomes rather than CG; are implausible measures of good FLCG, or are vaguely or subjectively defined. We also attempt, but fail, to use element-level information from CCGRs to construct sound measures of FLCG.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Bernard S. Black","Antônio Gledson de Carvalho","Woochan Kim","B. Burçin Yurtoğlu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102405","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1320a386712e27b1","title":"Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare","abstract":"Earnings dynamics are much richer than typically assumed in macro models with heterogeneous agents. This holds for individual-pre-tax and household-post-tax earnings and across administrative and survey data. We estimate two alternative processes for household after-tax earnings and study their implications using a standard life-cycle model. Both processes feature a persistent and a transitory component, but although the first one is the canonical linear process with stationary shocks, the second one has substantially richer earnings dynamics, allowing for age-dependence of moments, non-normality, and nonlinearity in previous earnings and age. Allowing for richer earnings dynamics implies a substantially better fit of the evolution of cross-sectional consumption inequality over the life cycle and of the individual-level degree of consumption insurance against persistent earnings shocks. The richer earnings process implies lower welfare costs of earnings risk.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Mariacristina De Nardi","Giulio Fella","Gonzalo Paz-Pardo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz010","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-1320fbd2ace54167","title":"Property Rights, Marriage, and Fertility in the Italian Alps, 1790–1820","abstract":"Does property rights allocation on the commons affect marriage strategies and fertility? We focus on the role played by patrilineal vs. egalitarian inheritance systems. Our approach combines a theoretical model and an empirical study that exploits an institutional shock at the turn of the 19th century, which made inheritance on the common property-resources egalitarian for everyone. We report that – as predicted by the model – communities with patrilineal inheritance rights on the commons exhibit higher levels of endogamy and consanguinity and lower fertility than those with egalitarian inheritance rights.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Marco Casari","Maurizio Lisciandra","Claudio Tagliapietra"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2018.09.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1326007691439634","title":"Job Loss and Regional Mobility","abstract":"We study the migration behavior of displaced workers and find that job displacement increases regional mobility. We find, however, that noneconomic factors, such as family ties, are very important for the migration decision and that there is strong heterogeneity in outcomes. We find large income losses for workers who move to regions where they have family or to rural areas, while, for example, rural to urban movers realize a significant long-term earnings increase. We also find that life events related to fertility, divorce, and new relationships correlate with mobility after job loss and may partly explain the large income losses.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Kristiina Huttunen","Jarle Møen","Kjell G. Salvanes"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/694587","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-133c9b8b377baf9d","title":"The Impact of Information Disclosure on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment of Calorie Labels on Restaurant Menus","abstract":"In 2018, the U.S. adopted a nationwide law requiring that chain restaurants post calorie counts on their menus and menu boards. This has led to considerable interest in the extent to which providing calorie information leads consumers to choose healthier diets. To estimate the impact of calorie labeling, we conducted a randomized controlled field experiment in two full‐service restaurants, in which the control group received menus without calorie counts and the treatment group received the same menus but with calorie counts. We estimate that the calorie labels resulted in a 3.0 percent reduction in calories ordered, with the reduction occurring in appetizers and entrées but not drinks or desserts. Exposure to the information also increased consumers’ support for requiring calorie labels by 9.6 percent. These results are informative about the impact of the new nationwide menu label requirement, and more generally contribute to the literature on the impact of information disclosure on consumer behavior.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["John Cawley","Alex M. Susskind","Barton Willage"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22219","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-134bbe5982f9e224","title":"Daily market news sentiment and stock prices","abstract":"In recent years there has been a tremendous growth in readily available news related to traded assets in international financial markets. This financial news is now available through real-time online sources such as Internet news and social media sources. The increase in the availability of financial news and investor’s ease of access to it has a potentially significant impact on market stock price movement as these news items are swiftly transformed into investors sentiment which in turn drives prices. In this study, we use the Thomson Reuters News Analytics (TRNA) data set to construct a series of daily sentiment scores for Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock index constituents. We use these daily DJIA market sentiment scores to study the influence of financial news sentiment scores on the stock returns of these constituents using a multi-factor model. We augment the Fama–French three-factor model with the day’s sentiment score along with lagged scores to evaluate the additional effects of financial news sentiment on stock prices in the context of this model using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Quantile Regression (QR) to analyse the effect around the tail of the return distribution. We also conduct the analysis using the seven-day simple moving average (SMA) of the scores to account for news released on non-trading days. Our results suggest that even when market factors are taken into account, sentiment scores have a significant effect on Dow Jones constituent returns and that lagged daily sentiment scores are often significant, suggesting that information compounded in these scores is not immediately reflected in security prices and related return series. The results also indicate that the SMA measure does not have a significant effect on the returns. The analysis using Quantile Regression provides evidence that the news has more impact on left tail compared to the right tail of the returns.","wordCount":304,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["David E. Allen","Michael McAleer","Abhay Kumar Singh"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1564115","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-135e1eb57f12b221","title":"Public good provision and property tax compliance: Evidence from a natural experiment","abstract":"Positive inducements and rewards have become a popular tool of tax administrations around the world. Yet, evaluation of the impact of rewards has been mostly absent from the empirical literature on tax compliance. In this paper we evaluate the effect of positive rewards on property tax compliance by exploiting a natural experiment in which a municipality of Argentina randomly selected 400 individuals among more than 72,000 taxpayers who had complied with the payment of their property tax. These individuals were publicly recognized and awarded the construction of a sidewalk. Results indicate that: (i) few additional taxpayers pay delinquent bills in order to participate; (ii) winning the lottery has large positive and persistent effects; (iii) there are sizable spillover effects, as neighbors of lottery winners increase their overall compliance. Providing a durable and visible public good seems to bring lasting positive effects on tax compliance.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Paul E. Carrillo","Edgar Castro","Carlos Scartascini"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104422","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1360cb69d3f62859","title":"Bank Capital and Lending Relationships","abstract":"This paper investigates the mechanisms behind the matching of banks and firms in the loan market and the implications of this matching for lending relationships, bank capital, and credit provision. I find that bank‐dependent firms borrow from well‐capitalized banks, while firms with access to the bond market borrow from banks with less capital. This matching of bank‐dependent firms with stable banks smooths cyclicality in aggregate credit provision and mitigates the effects of bank shocks on the real economy.","wordCount":78,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Michael Schwert"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12604","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-13692b6b00cabb7a","title":"An Efficiency Perspective on Carbon Emissions and Financial Performance","abstract":"International policy actions to constrain carbon emissions create substantial risks and opportunities for firms. In particular, production processes that are relatively high emitting will be more sensitive to the uncertain costs of emitting carbon dioxide and might further reflect productive inefficiencies. We employ a productive efficiency model to evaluate firms' carbon emission levels relative to those of best-practice (efficient) peers with comparable production structures. By accounting for total factor productivity and sector-relative performance aspects, this measure of carbon efficiency helps to quantify and rank firms' relative dependence on carbon in the production process. We investigate the impact of carbon efficiency on various financial performance outcomes and evaluate the role of general resource efficiency in explaining these impacts. Using an international sample of 1572 firms over the years 2009–2017, we find superior financial performance in carbon-efficient (best-practice) firms. On average, a 0.1 higher carbon efficiency is associated with a 1.0% higher profitability and 0.6% lower systematic risk. While carbon efficiency closely relates to resource efficiency, it also has distinct financial performance impacts, particularly lowering systematic risk. Overall, our findings suggest that carbon-efficient production can be valuable from both operational and risk management perspectives.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Arjan Trinks","Machiel Mulder","Bert Scholtens"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106632","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-136fecd5ef6eaf18","title":"Knowledge Capital and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for US States","abstract":"Improvement in human capital is often presumed to be important for state economic development, but little research links better education to state incomes. We develop detailed measures of worker skills in each state that incorporate cognitive skills from state- and countryof-origin achievement tests. These new measures of knowledge capital permit development accounting analyses calibrated with standard production parameters. Differences in knowledge capital account for 20–30 percent of the state variation in per capita GDP, with roughly even contributions by school attainment and cognitive skills. Similar results emerge from growth accounting analyses. These estimates support school improvement as a strategy for state economic development.","wordCount":103,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Eric A. Hanushek","Jens Ruhose","Ludger Woessmann"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160255","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1370ecdb1076935b","title":"Salary history bans and healing scars from past recessions","abstract":"In a recession, increased competition forces inexperienced job market entrants to ac- cept lower wages than those who start their careers during an economic boom. Despite years of improvement in labor market conditions following a recession, a wage dispar- ity, known as scarring, persists between these cohorts. Recently implemented Salary History Ban laws (SHBs) are intended to reduce wage disparities between advantaged and disadvantaged groups. In this study, I test how these laws affect a unique and of- ten less salient disadvantaged group – scarred workers. For scarred workers who began their careers during a moderate-to-severe recession, or a five percentage point higher state unemployment rate, I find SHBs increase job mobility by 0.6%, hourly wages by 2.65%, and weekly earnings by 5% relative to cohorts who graduated in baseline labor market conditions. These estimates represent a substantial reduction in the original scarring effect and provide a broader understanding of the mechanisms behind both scarring and SHB laws.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Joshua Mask"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102408","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-137af5140f18b653","title":"Less debt, more schooling? Evidence from cross-country micro data","abstract":"Soaring levels of public debt in low-income countries are fuelling concerns about their ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, such as free access to primary education. In the late 1990s and 2000s, international financial institutions introduced a series of debt relief initiatives aimed to restore debt sustainability among highly indebted countries. This study examines the impact of these initiatives on primary school attendance. We exploit the temporal variation in the implementation of these policies, in combination with individual-level data from 177 Demographic and Health Surveys covering more than 1.5 million school-age children from 44 low-income countries to implement difference-in-differences and spatial difference-in-discontinuity estimators. Results suggest that debt relief initiatives, by freeing up additional public resources, have significantly contributed to increasing primary school attendance in heavily indebted countries. Impact heterogeneity analysis also shows that debt relief has been effective at reducing wealth-based, intergenerational, religious, ethnic and spatial inequalities in education. Our results provide robust evidence to assert that debt relief, in combination with other financing sources, can contribute to improving educational outcomes in highly indebted poor countries.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Marin Ferry","Marine de Talancé","Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.07.002","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-137d0837da71c559","title":"Social Media, News Consumption, and Polarization: Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"Does the consumption of ideologically congruent news on social media exacerbate polarization? I estimate the effects of social media news exposure by conducting a large field experiment randomly offering participants subscriptions to conservative or liberal news outlets on Facebook. I collect data on the causal chain of media effects: subscriptions to outlets, exposure to news on Facebook, visits to online news sites, and sharing of posts, as well as changes in political opinions and attitudes. Four main findings emerge. First, random variation in exposure to news on social media substantially affects the slant of news sites that individuals visit. Second, exposure to counter-attitudinal news decreases negative attitudes toward the opposing political party. Third, in contrast to the effect on attitudes, I find no evidence that the political leanings of news outlets affect political opinions. Fourth, Facebook’s algorithm is less likely to supply individuals with posts from counter-attitudinal outlets, conditional on individuals subscribing to them. Together, the results suggest that social media algorithms may limit exposure to counter-attitudinal news and thus increase polarization.","wordCount":172,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Roee Levy"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191777","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1381a7313c887dec","title":"Trade barriers in government procurement","abstract":"This paper estimates trade barriers in government procurement, a market that accounts for 12 percent of world GDP. Using data from inter-country input–output tables in a gravity model, we find that home bias in government procurement is significantly higher than in trade between firms. However, this difference has decreased over time. Results also show that trade agreements with provisions on government procurement increase cross-border flows of services, whereas the effect on goods is small and not different from that in private markets. Provisions on transparency and procedural requirements are particularly instrumental in increasing cross-border government procurement.","wordCount":96,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Alen Mulabdić","Lorenzo Rotunno"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104204","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-139e65b7ac82ea26","title":"Scale matters: risk perception, return expectations, and investment propensity under different scalings","abstract":"With a novel experimental design we investigate whether risk perception, return expectations, and investment propensity are influenced by the scale of the vertical axis in charts. We explore this for two presentation formats, namely return charts and price charts, where we depict low- and high-volatility assets with distinct trends. We find that varying the scale strongly affects people’s risk perception, as a narrower scale of the vertical axis leads to significantly higher perceived riskiness of an asset even if the underlying volatility is the same. Furthermore, past returns predict future return expectations almost perfectly. In our setting perceived profitability was considered more important than perceived riskiness when making investment choices. Overall we show that adapting the scale of a chart makes it easier to recognize yearly return variations within a single security, but at the same time makes it harder to identify differences between dissimilar securities. This is something regulators should be aware of and take into account in the rules they set.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Christoph Huber","Jürgen Huber"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/6373342","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-139fe2a747f056d0","title":"Conflict frames in the wild: win-lose frames are more common, but mixed and win-win frames are more effective","abstract":"A disconnect exists between the common conflict frames and their actual influence. In controlled studies, conflicts are often interpreted as win-lose situations. Yet, it remains unclear whether this tendency extends to real-world conflicts. To address this question, we examine two competing perspectives on conflict frame prevalence: one assuming that win-lose frames dominate in real-world conflicts and another suggesting that win-win frames are more common. Drawing on conflict resolution and coalition bargaining theory, we test the hypothesis that win-win frames are more effective than win-lose frames in influencing both interdependent counterparts and independent third parties. Results of two archival studies using political participation data reveal that win-lose frames were more frequent in real-world conflicts than win-win frames. However, while win-lose frames were the most common, mixed frames proved to be the most effective in influencing interdependent counterparts. Additionally, both win-win and mixed frames had the strongest impact on independent third parties. Our findings highlight a fundamental gap between how people typically interpret conflict and how effectively conflict frames influence others.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Johann M. Majer","John‐Oliver Engler","Emma Saxena","Andreas Mojzisch"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102868","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-13a9846303255a1b","title":"Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful?","abstract":"Using a proprietary database of online job postings, we find that education and experience requirements rose during the Great Recession. These increases were larger in states and occupations that experienced greater increases in the supply of available workers. This finding is robust to controlling for local demand conditions and firm [Formula: see text] job-title fixed effects and using a natural experiment arising from troop withdrawals as an exogenous shock to labor supply. Our results imply that the increase in unemployed workers during the Great Recession can account for 18% to 25% of the increase in skill requirements between 2007 and 2010.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Alicia Modestino","Daniel Shoag","Joshua Ballance"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00835","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-13d0eaa1035479a7","title":"Does government debt crowd out capital formation? A dynamic approach using panel VAR","abstract":"We estimate a panel vector autoregression model using data for 127 countries from 1980 to 2017 in order to identify the dynamic relationship between public debt and the growth of capital formation. Our results provide evidence for the crowding-out effect of government debt and the subsequent drop in output growth. The impulse response functions for sub-samples of countries reveal two remarkable results. First, the response of capital formation to a shock in debt appears to be consistent across different income categories of countries, and does not depend on the size of debt-to-GDP ratio. Second, the magnitude and persistence of this effect is lower for the high-income countries. The results obtained are robust to various model specifications as well as for alternative proxies of debt and capital formation.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Zara Liaqat"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-13d10cbb5bc96204","title":"Diminishing Marginal Returns to Computer‐Assisted Learning","abstract":"The previous expansion of EdTech as a substitute for traditional learning around the world, the recent full‐scale substitution due to COVID‐19, and potential future shifts to blended approaches suggest that it is imperative to understand input substitutability between in‐person and online learning. We explore input substitutability in education by employing a novel randomized controlled trial that varies dosage of computer‐assisted learning (CAL) as a substitute for traditional learning through homework. Moving from zero to a low level of CAL, we find positive substitutability of CAL for traditional learning. Moving from a lower to a higher level of CAL, substitutability changes and is either neutral or even negative. The estimates suggest that a blended approach of CAL and traditional learning is optimal. The findings have direct implications for the rapidly expanding use of educational technology worldwide prior to, during, and after the pandemic.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Eric Bettinger","Robert W. Fairlie","Anastasia Kapuza","Елена Карданова","Prashant Loyalka","Andrey Zakharov"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22442","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-13de826b828e5e18","title":"Financial frictions in the euro area and the united states: A bayesian assessment","abstract":"This paper assesses the empirical relevance of financial frictions in the Euro Area (EA) and the United States (US). It provides a comprehensive set of comparisons between two models: (i) a Smets and Wouters (SW) [F. Smets and R. Wouters, Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach, American Economic Review 97(3), 586–606 (2007)] model with financial frictions originating in nonfinancial firms and (ii) a SW model with frictions originating in financial intermediaries. The introduction of financial frictions in either way improves the models' fit compared to a standard SW model, and the empirical comparisons reveal that the latter model outperforms the former both in the euro area and in the United States. Two main factors explain this result: first, the magnitude of the financial accelerator effect, and second, the role of the investment-specific technology shock in affecting financial variables.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Stefania Villa"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000881","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-13e10eda69d7ab56","title":"Kinship and opportunity: Swedish chain migration to the United States, 1880–1920","abstract":"Between 1850 and 1930, millions of Europeans emigrated to the United States, attracted by opportunities for a better life. We study the role of migrant networks in fostering emigration, using individual-level Swedish full-count census data for men and women, linked to emigration records. Our findings show that having previously migrating siblings was an important determinant of emigration, particularly if the migrating sibling was of the same gender. The presence of migrant networks of kin outside the immediate family also promoted emigration. Moreover, migrant networks were most important for prospective migrants from areas with the weakest migration history. The importance of migrant networks for women did not vary according to social class, while for men in rural areas, the role of siblings emigrating was more important influencing emigration in the lowest social class.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Marcos Castillo","Martin Dribe","Jonas Helgertz"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101695","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-13e5022da5d08436","title":"Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks","abstract":"Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions (VARs) can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after a significant lag, whereas shocks to oil demand do not.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Christiane Baumeister","James D. Hamilton"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20151569","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-13e74f35de0a3400","title":"Is the Risk of Sea Level Rise Capitalized in Residential Real Estate?","abstract":"Using a comprehensive database of coastal home sales merged with data on elevation relative to local tides, we compare prices for houses based on their inundation threshold under projections of sea level rise. The analysis separates the sensitivity of housing to rising seas from other confounding characteristics by exploiting cross-sectional differences in relative sea level rise due to vertical land motion. This provides variation in the expected time to inundation for properties of similar elevation and distance from the coast. In a variety of specifications and test settings, we find precisely estimated null results suggesting limited price effects.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Justin Murfin","Matthew Spiegel"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz134","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-13f517367e5dcf2b","title":"Global non-sustainable harvest of renewable resources reduces their present price but increases their net present value","abstract":"Over-exploitation of natural resources is a major problem, and transitions to sustainable harvest are taking place worldwide. To determine the optimal harvesting strategy, including the optimal speed and approach to transition toward sustainable harvest, policymakers need to estimate the net present values of natural resources. Previous studies have shown that discounting reduces the future value of natural resources, but the long-term increase in their price may partially compensate for discounting. However, the price and future values of natural resources may also be affected by the transition from over-harvesting to sustainable harvest. Here we present a model that endogenizes the effect of non-sustainable harvest on the price of a renewable natural resource. We show that the transition to sustainable harvest is expected to increase the resource’s price significantly, at a rate that is greater than its long-term increase. Incorporating this effect increases the estimated net present value of ecosystems providing renewable natural resources.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Adam Lampert"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101409","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-13f89fc71456242d","title":"A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents","abstract":"Growth has fallen in the U.S. amid a rise in firm concentration. Market share has shifted to low labour share firms, while within-firm labour shares have actually risen. We propose a theory linking these trends in which the driving force is falling overhead costs of spanning multiple products or a rising efficiency advantage of large firms. In response, the most efficient firms (with higher markups) spread into new product lines, thereby increasing concentration and generating a temporary burst of growth. Eventually, due to greater competition from efficient firms, within-firm markups and incentives to innovate fall. Thus our simple model can generate qualitative patterns in line with the observed trends.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Philippe Aghion","Antonin Bergeaud","Timo Boppart","Peter J. Klenow","Huiyu Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04330700","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-13fa9eac41751112","title":"SDG 8: Decent work and economic growth – A gendered analysis","abstract":"SDG 8 calls for promoting ‘sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all’. Even as it highlights the importance of labour rights for all, it also makes visible some significant tensions. We note, for example, that despite many critiques of narrow economic measures of growth, the focus here remains on GDP and per capita growth. This is problematic, we argue, because the GDP productive boundary excludes much of social reproductive work. This puts SDG8 in tension with SDG 5 which calls for the recognition of the value of unpaid care and domestic work. There has been a significant increase in the rate of working women in the formal and informal sector. However, there has not been a subsequent gender shift in the doing of social reproductive work. In this paper we argue SDG 8’s focus on decent work and economic growth is inadequate; that productive employment and decent work for all men and women by 2030 needs to take into account the value and costs of social reproduction. We trace key historical debates on work to argue that both gender and labour rights have to underpin SDG 8 if its promise of inclusive, sustainable and decent work is to be realized. \\n \\n","wordCount":210,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Shirin M. Rai","Benjamin Brown","Kanchana N. Ruwanpura"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-13fac0bd3ececeda","title":"Semi-endogenous or fully endogenous growth? A unified theory","abstract":"Is growth ultimately fully endogenous or semi-endogenous? Three decades of theoretical and empirical growth economics have kept both possibilities open. Here, R & D-driven growth is a general combination of both semi-endogenous and fully endogenous mechanisms. I demonstrate that if the semi-endogenous growth component is indispensable to the actual growth mechanism, the long-run growth rate follows the semi-endogenous growth predictions. Conversely, if the semi-endogenous growth is non-essential and the world population experiences slow growth, the fully endogenous growth mechanism could dictate the long run, even if it is not essential. If no other (third) growth mechanism exists, a criterion sufficient to ascertain the essentiality of semi-endogenous growth is that reduced research consistently leads to fewer innovations. If an unknown third growth engine exists, the steady state remains semi-endogenous, provided the essentiality criterion is met. Regardless of how this third factor impacts short-term growth, semi-endogenous growth will prevail in the long run.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Guido Cozzi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105732","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-140d28c5cabb2aa0","title":"Output costs of education and skill mismatch in OECD countries","abstract":"We quantify the output costs of education and skills mismatch for 17 OECD economies, using a calibrated model of vertical mismatch. Eliminating the frictions generating mismatch would raise output by 3% to 4% on average, varying between 0.5% to 9% across countries. Although the education and skill mismatch measures are constructed using different methods and differ in size, the output costs are similar between the two measures.","wordCount":67,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Pietro Garibaldi","Pedro Gomes","Thepthida Sopraseuth"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112278","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-140dc2716a45d2a1","title":"Reducing maternal labor market detachment: A role for paid family leave","abstract":"More than one quarter of working women leave the labor force when they have a child. Half of these detachments last at least 10 years and as many as 20 percent last 17 years or more, shrinking the U.S. workforce. Access to paid family leave (PFL) offers many private benefits, but may also offer the public benefit of increasing women’s participation in the labor force. We rely on the implementation of PFL in California in 2004 to examine long-term impacts on women’s labor force participation. We find that, prior to implementation of paid leave, maternal labor market detachment is 25 percent following a birth; it attenuates over time to five percent but takes 14 years to reach that level, and remains significantly different from zero. We find that access to PFL at the time of a birth significantly increases labor market participation by more than five percentage points (21 percent) in the year of a birth; its impact attenuates over time but remains significantly different from zero as much as nine years later. Impacts are greatest among women with bachelor’s degrees, for whom PFL reduces maternal detachment by 12 percentage points (38 percent) in the year of a birth and continues to impact participation for eleven years after a birth. This suggests that PFL offers public benefits of increasing the skilled labor force.","wordCount":223,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Kelly Jones","Britni Wilcher"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102478","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-142dbee58a8f379b","title":"Learning and investment under demand uncertainty in container shipping","abstract":"This article investigates the role of demand uncertainty in explaining cyclical investment fluctuations in the container shipping industry. I develop and estimate a dynamic oligopoly model with learning in which firms choose investment and scrapping. In this model, firms are uncertain about the true parameters in the underlying process for demand, and form and revise their beliefs using available information. Counterfactual analysis reveals that uncertainty about the demand process amplifies investment cycles through (i) leading firms to revise beliefs more drastically as they experience demand fluctuations, and (ii) intensifying strategic incentives among firms.","wordCount":93,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Jihye Jeon"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12406","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1451ec28e834f594","title":"China's housing bubble, infrastructure investment, and economic growth","abstract":"China's housing prices have been growing rapidly over the past few decades, despite low growth in rents. We study the impact of housing bubbles on China's economy, based on the understanding that local governments use land‐sale revenue to fuel infrastructure investment. We calibrate our model to the Chinese data over the period 2003–13 and find that our calibrated model can match the declining capital return and GDP growth, the average housing price growth, and the rising infrastructure to GDP ratio in the data. We conduct two counterfactual experiments to estimate the impact of a bubble collapse and a property tax.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Shenzhe Jiang","Jianjun Miao","Yuzhe Zhang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12562","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1458e51ca4f2e988","title":"Allais, Ellsberg, and preferences for hedging","abstract":"Two of the most well known regularities observed in preferences under risk and uncertainty are ambiguity aversion and the Allais paradox. We study the behavior of an agent who can display both tendencies simultaneously. We introduce a novel notion of preference for hedging that applies to both objective lotteries and uncertain acts. We show that this axiom, together with other standard ones, is equivalent to a representation in which the agent (i) evaluates ambiguity using multiple priors, as in the model of Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989, and (ii) evaluates objective lotteries by distorting probabilities, as in the rank dependent utility model, but using the worst from a set of distortions. We show that a preference for hedging is not sufficient to guarantee Ellsberg-like behavior if the agent violates expected utility for objective lotteries; we provide a novel axiom that characterizes this case, linking the distortions for objective and subjective bets.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Mark Dean","Pietro Ortoleva"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1960","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-1464c26b4380a7f4","title":"Understanding the impacts of water scarcity and socio-economic demographics on farmer mental health in the Murray-Darling Basin","abstract":"Changes in climate pose a significant threat to human health, which is not only expected to influence physical health, but also affect mental health. For farming communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources for their living, climate variability may significantly influence future farm viability. This study examined whether climatic conditions and water scarcity were associated with worsening farmer (dryland and irrigators) mental health in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. The sample consisted of 2141 observations (for 235 farmers) from a national longitudinal survey across fourteen waves (2001/02 to 2014/15) and was modelled using Correlative Random Effects panel data regression. This time-period included the Millennium Drought, allowing a natural experiment test of the impact of water scarcity on farmer mental health. Key findings were that farmers located in areas that had experienced reduced rainfall, water allocations <30% and mean daily maximum summer temperatures over 32 °C had significantly worse mental health than farmers in other areas. In addition, farmers who had lower income during drought were much more likely to have worse mental health than in non-drought times.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Sahar Daghagh Yazd","Sarah Ann Wheeler","Alec Zuo"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106564","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-14680a16373c432d","title":"Dynastic Inequality Compared: Multigenerational Mobility in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany","abstract":"Using harmonized household survey data, we analyze long‐run social mobility in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, and test recent theories of multigenerational persistence of socioeconomic status. In this country comparison setting, we find evidence against a universal law of social mobility. Our results show that the long‐run persistence of socioeconomic status and the validity of a first‐order Markov chain in the intergenerational transmission of human capital is country‐specific. Furthermore, we find that the direct and independent effect of grandparents' social status on grandchildren's status tends to vary by gender and institutional context.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Guido Neidhöfer","Maximilian Stockhausen"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12364","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1488a0643a227c45","title":"The impact of extreme climate events and agricultural diversification in the British West Indies, 1850–1960","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of droughts and hurricanes on key agricultural exports in the British Caribbean between 1850 and 1960, and investigates how diversification shaped economic outcomes. Using export data gathered from Colonial Blue Books, along with proxies for drought and hurricane exposure, the analysis shows that extreme climate events affected crops unevenly: while cocoa, cotton, coffee, coconuts and bananas experienced major declines, sugar proved relatively resilient. Counterfactual estimations reveal that diversification often worsened revenue losses during extreme events, especially in colonies that shifted away from sugar toward less climate-resilient crops. These findings challenge the widely held assumption that diversification inherently reduces risk, showing that it may, in certain contexts, increase economic vulnerability to climate shocks.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Julia Schlosser"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101751","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-148f2a5bee6207c6","title":"The consequence of societal secrecy for the financial constraints faced by firms","abstract":"Does the level of societal secrecy aggravate or alleviate access to finance? We explore this question for 51,249 firms in 39, predominantly developing, countries, from 2006 to 2015. We find a strong positive relationship between cultural orientation towards secrecy in a country and financial constraints faced by its firms. Our results are robust to several considerations and emphasize the adverse consequence of societal secrecy for perpetuating financing obstacles for firms.","wordCount":70,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Ọláyínká Oyèkọ́lá","Samuel Odewunmi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111182","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1495a1e8696eec71","title":"Self-confidence and strategic behavior","abstract":"We suggest that overconfidence (conscious or unconscious) is motivated in part by strategic considerations, and test this experimentally. We find compelling supporting evidence in the behavior of participants who send and respond to others’ statements of confidence about how well they have scored on an IQ test. In two-player tournaments where the higher score wins, a player is very likely to choose to compete when he knows that his own stated confidence is higher than the other player’s, but rarely when the reverse is true. Consistent with this behavior, stated confidence is inflated by males when deterrence is strategically optimal and is instead deflated (by males and females) when luring (encouraging entry) is strategically optimal. This behavior is consistent with the equilibrium of the corresponding signaling game. Overconfident statements are used in environments that seem familiar, and we present evidence that suggests that this can occur on an unconscious level.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Gary Charness","Aldo Rustichini","Jeroen van de Ven"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9526-3","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-149f898cf386febe","title":"Hiring Discrimination Against Transgender People: Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"This paper presents the results of the first correspondence study that examined hiring discrimination against transgender people. Fictitious job applications (N = 2,224) were sent to employers with job postings in 12 low-skill occupations in Sweden. Overall, 40 percent of cisgender applicants and 34 percent of transgender applicants received a positive employer response to their applications. This result was not robust to the Heckman-Siegelman critique. However, when transgender applicants were compared to the dominant gender in male- and female-dominated occupations, estimates of discrimination were larger and robust to the critique. There was no clear support for the statistical discrimination hypothesis.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Mark Granberg","Per Andersson","Ali Ahmed"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101860","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-14a7893a7894aae6","title":"Do Payday Loans Cause Bankruptcy?","abstract":"Payday loans are used by millions of Americans every year despite their annualized interest rates of several hundred percent. We provide new evidence on the consequences of payday borrowing and the determinants of personal bankruptcy. Using an administrative panel data set of loan records in a regression-discontinuity design, we estimate that payday loans increase personal bankruptcy rates by a factor of two. We assess possible mechanisms and find the most support for a novel one: payday loan access appears to induce bankruptcy filings by worsening the cash flow position of the household.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Paige Marta Skiba","Jeremy Tobacman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706201","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-14b04fe30cffa95c","title":"Belief hedges: Measuring ambiguity for all events and all models","abstract":"We introduce belief hedges, i.e., sets of events whose uncertain subjective beliefs neutralize each other. Belief hedges allow us to measure ambiguity attitudes without knowing those subjective beliefs. They lead to improved ambiguity indexes that are valid under all popular ambiguity theories. Our indexes can be applied to real-world problems and do not require expected utility for risk or commitments to two-stage optimization, thereby increasing their descriptive power. Belief hedges make ambiguity theories widely applicable.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Han Bleichrodt","Chen Li","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105353","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-14b73b2e777abdac","title":"Amazon Mechanical Turk workers can provide consistent and economically meaningful data","abstract":"Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) is an online labor market that is being used increasingly often in the social sciences. This occurs despite significant questions regarding efficacy of the platform. In this article, we attempt to address some of these questions by exploring the consistency of the characteristics of individuals who participate in studies posted on AMT. The primary individuals analyzed in this study are subjects who participated in at least two of eleven experiments that were run on AMT between September of 2012 and January of 2018. We demonstrate subjects consistently report their age, gender, subjective willingness to take risk, and impulsiveness. Further, subjective willingness to take risk is found to be significantly correlated with decisions made in a simple lottery experiment with real stakes—even when the subjective risk measure is reported months, sometimes years, in the past. This suggests the quality of data obtained via AMT is not terribly harmed by the lack of control and low stakes.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["David B. Johnson","John Ryan"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12451","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-14c3d89f2278cf3a","title":"Estimating time-varying networks for high-dimensional time series","abstract":"We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs are investigated: one containing directed edges of Granger causality linkages, and the other containing undirected edges of partial correlation linkages. Under the sparse structural assumption, we propose a penalised local linear method with time-varying weighted group LASSO to jointly estimate the transition matrices and identify their significant entries, and a time-varying CLIME method to estimate the precision matrices. The estimated transition and precision matrices are then used to determine the time-varying network structures. Under some mild conditions, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimates including the consistency and oracle properties. In addition, we extend the methodology and theory to cover highly-correlated large-scale time series, for which the sparsity assumption becomes invalid and we allow for common factors before estimating the factor-adjusted time-varying networks. We provide extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a large U.S. macroeconomic dataset to illustrate the finite-sample performance of our methods.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Chen Jia","Degui Li","Li Yu-ning","Oliver Linton"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105941","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-14cb2a959ff3212a","title":"Large dynamic covariance matrices: Enhancements based on intraday data","abstract":"Multivariate GARCH models do not perform well in large dimensions due to the so-called curse of dimensionality. The recent DCC-NL model of Engle et al. (2019) is able to overcome this curse via nonlinear shrinkage estimation of the unconditional correlation matrix. In this paper, we show how performance can be increased further by using open/high/low/close (OHLC) price data instead of simply using daily returns. A key innovation, for the improved modeling of not only dynamic variances but also of dynamic correlations, is the concept of a regularized return, obtained from a volatility proxy in conjunction with a smoothed sign of the observed return.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Gianluca De Nard","Robert F. Engle","Olivier Ledoit","Michael Wolf"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106426","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-14d5584a72502d09","title":"Screening for Good Patent Pools through Price Caps on Individual Licenses","abstract":"Patent pools reduce prices when selling complementary inputs to technologies, but can also effectively cartelize markets when involving substitutes. Independent licensing, by reintroducing competition, ensures that only good pools form when there are two patent holders involved. For larger pools, independent licensing needs to be complemented by other policy tools. We propose to constrain the royalties for the patents individually licensed outside the pool with price caps replicating the pool's sharing rule. This information-free screening device works with asymmetries, even when licensors try to stabilize pools by readjusting the sharing rule in a way that may not reflect contributions.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Aleksandra Boutin"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140237","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-14d9f8bd8f2c208b","title":"Efficient multiunit auctions for normal goods","abstract":"I study multiunit auction design when bidders have private values, multiunit demands, and non‐quasilinear preferences. Without quasilinearity, the Vickrey auction loses its desired incentive and efficiency properties. I give conditions under which we can design a mechanism that retains the Vickrey auction's desirable incentive and efficiency properties: (1) individual rationality, (2) dominant strategy incentive compatibility, and (3) Pareto efficiency. I show that there is a mechanism that retains the desired properties of the Vickrey auction if there are two bidders who have single‐dimensional types. I also present an impossibility theorem that shows that there is no mechanism that satisfies Vickrey's desired properties and weak budget balance when bidders have multidimensional types.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Brian Baisa"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3430","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-14f21ab69fe116d4","title":"Can Shareholder Proposals Hurt Shareholders? Evidence from Securities and Exchange Commission No-Action-Letter Decisions","abstract":"This paper studies Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) no-action-letter decisions that determine whether companies can exclude shareholder proposals from their proxy statements. During 2007–19, the market reacted positively when the SEC permitted exclusion, which suggests that investors viewed those proposals as value reducing on average. We also find that a company’s stock price decreased over time while waiting for an SEC decision, which suggests that challenged proposals imposed distraction costs on companies. The SEC’s decisions can be predicted by regulatory rules but are also related to a proposal’s predicted votes—more popular types of proposals were less likely to be removed. We find no robust evidence that no-action-letter decisions differed when the SEC was controlled by Democrats versus Republicans. Taken together, the evidence suggests that managers may be serving shareholder interests in opposing some proposals and that the no-action-letter process may be helping shareholders by weeding out value-reducing proposals.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["John G. Matsusaka","Oguzhan Ozbas","Irene Yi"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/710828","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-14f5ff666f2a0851","title":"Foundations of market power in monetary economies","abstract":"We study the foundations of firms' market power in a continuous-time model where agents are price-makers who interact explicitly with each other. Market power arises from the existence of rents, the size of which depends on consumers' outside options, and firms' ability to appropriate these rents through rent seeking. We study how measures of market power (e.g., markups, concentration) are affected by search frictions, monetary policy, and self-fulfilling beliefs. An increase in the nominal interest rate affects market power by changing consumers' payment capacity and the value of their outside options, and by altering firms' rent-seeking behavior.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Michael Choi","Guillaume Rocheteau"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105931","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-150506050f074a32","title":"Identifying the local economic development effects of million dollar facilities","abstract":"Using incentives to attract firms is the primary economic development policy for many local governments. Yet, relatively little is known about the local economic development outcomes induced by successful attraction of new establishments. The empirical challenge lies in correctly identifying the counterfactual outcome. This article tests for induced economic development in winning counties using a set of highly incentivized large plants. The article makes a methodological contribution by comparing difference‐in‐differences results from a natural experiment (in which counterfactuals are losers reported by Site Selection magazine) with a geographically proximate matching control by design strategy. Estimates are sensitive to identification strategy, with distributional and placebo tests suggesting geographically proximate matching as preferable to the natural experiment. The preferred estimates indicate successful attraction of a large new plant induces modest increases in new economic activity that does not generate fiscal surplus for winning counties.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Carlianne Patrick"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12339","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-15174512e16a6ca3","title":"Estimating the value of threatened species abundance dynamics","abstract":"Conservation spending aimed at helping threatened species lacks information on the marginal benefits of increases in the abundance of threatened species that occur at different points in time. This paper develops an empirical approach combining a choice experiment and a structural model to estimate two key parameters in a dynamic willingness-to-pay function: the current marginal benefit of increases in threatened species abundance and the rate implicitly used to discount future marginal benefits. An application to a threatened Coho salmon along the Oregon coast illustrates the method. We find that the public values a one-year marginal increase in Coho abundance of 1000 fish from $0.08 to $0.19 per household with a discount rate for future increments in salmon abundance of 2.1%. We apply these results to an instantaneous and permanent marginal increase in salmon abundance of 0.79% resulting from a policy change in one watershed and show this marginal change can generate over $63 million in present value of social marginal benefits to the greater Pacific Northwest region. Results provide direct evidence that conservation activities that achieve immediate abundance gains for a threatened species (or prevent immediate losses) produce significantly higher benefits than activities that gradually achieve the same abundance gains.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["David J. Lewis","David M. Kling","Steven J. Dundas","Daniel K. Lew"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102639","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-151a71d5102550cb","title":"Capital Heterogeneity and the Decline of the Labour Share","abstract":"We investigate the decline of the labour share in a world characterized by increasing heterogeneity of capital assets. Our results show that over the 1970–2007 period, the decline of the labour share has been driven mainly by Information and Communication Technology assets and is mitigated by increasing investments in R&D‐based knowledge assets. Extending to other forms of intangible capital from 1995 onwards, we find that intangible investments related to innovation increase the labour share while those related to the organization of firms contribute to its decline, particularly for low‐ and intermediate‐skilled workers. Our results are robust to an array of econometric issues, namely heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence and endogeneity.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Mary O’Mahony","Michela Vecchi","Francesco Venturini"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12356","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-1522dd01c3b8f08f","title":"The formation of social groups under status concern","abstract":"I study the interaction of two forces in the formation of social groups: the preference for high quality peers and the desire for status among one's peers. I examine their equilibrium effects under different market structures and find that status concern reduces the potential for and benefit of sorting - both for a social planner and a monopolist - but the interaction between preference for quality and status can make the exclusion of some agents a second-best outcome. Even in settings with complementarities, price discrimination and screening can be necessary to facilitate sorting and increase welfare. Nevertheless, positional concerns can be beneficial for welfare if they provide sufficient incentive to engage more with one's group and thus increase positive spillovers. In those cases, welfare is higher if individuals have at least some degree of status concern, even if the welfare measure ignores such relative comparisons.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Manuel Staab"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105924","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-152f50f86744d4ad","title":"Are the poor worse at dealing with ambiguity?","abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between people’s ambiguity attitudes and income in the field using language as a natural source of ambiguity. It shows that the method of Baillon et al. (2017b) can be adapted for field studies, providing ambiguity measurement tasks that are more comprehensible for nonacademic subjects. Ambiguity attitudes were elicited in two groups of Chinese adolescents (poor rural and rich urban), among whom the income variation is big. In the rural group the poorer are both more ambiguity averse and more a-insensitive, whereas in the urban group the richer are more a-insensitivite. On average, the poor rural adolescents are worse at dealing with ambiguity than their urban counterparts. A-insensitivity, which measures people’s understanding of an ambiguous situation, is an important but sometimes neglected component of ambiguity attitude. Policies aiming to help people improve decisions may focus more on reducing a-insensitivity as this cognitive bias is more likely to be influenced by intervention than people’s intrinsic aversion towards ambiguity.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Chen Li"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9262-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-153662883adbf776","title":"Optimal Monetary and Prudential Policies","abstract":"The recent financial crisis has highlighted the interconnectedness between macroeconomic and financial stability, raising questions about how to combine monetary and prudential policies. This paper characterizes the jointly optimal monetary and prudential policies, setting the interest rate and bank-capital requirements. The source of financial fragility is the socially excessive risk taking by banks due to limited liability and deposit insurance. We provide conditions under which locally (Ramsey) optimal policy dedicates the prudential instrument to preventing inefficient risk taking by banks, and the monetary instrument to dealing with the business cycle, with the two instruments covarying either negatively, or positively and countercyclically.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Fabrice Collard","Harris Dellas","Behzad Diba","Olivier Loisel"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140139","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1540108c2cadc111","title":"Corporate Leniency Programs for Antitrust: Past, Present, and Future","abstract":"This special issue marks the 25th anniversary of the introduction of a leniency program for antitrust in the EU and contains five original papers: Each paper examines the effects of design parameters of leniency programs on their performance. Before introducing each contribution separately, we put them in perspective by introducing readers to the existing theoretical, empirical, and experimental literature on corporate leniency programs for antitrust.","wordCount":65,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jeroen Hinloopen","Sander Onderstal","Adriaan R. Soetevent"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09913-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-154053662bfa98ac","title":"Fiscal consolidation programs and income inequality","abstract":"We document a strong empirical relationship between higher income inequality and stronger recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation episodes across time and space. To explain this finding, we develop a life‐cycle economy with uninsurable income risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of several European economies, including inequality and fiscal structures, and study the effects of fiscal consolidation programs. In our model, higher income risk induces precautionary savings behavior, which decreases the proportion of credit‐constrained agents in the economy. These agents have less elastic labor supply responses to fiscal consolidations, which explain the correlation with inequality in the data.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Pedro Brinca","Miguel Homem Ferreira","Francesco Franco","Hans A. Holter","Laurence Malafry"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12482","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-154b1e6b2229d1bb","title":"Health-led growth since 1800","abstract":"This paper argues that the marked reduction in the burden of parasitic and infectious diseases (PID) together with improved nutrition over the past two centuries in today's advanced countries has resulted in markedly improved physiological capital and cognitive skills and, consequently, in productivity advances. Using a unique annual dataset covering the period 1800–2011 for 21 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, it is found that health improvements can account for approximately a third of the productivity advances in the OECD countries since 1865, and that these improvements have been influential for enhancement in education, savings, innovations, life expectancy, and democracy.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Jakob B. Madsen"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000468","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-155a346c7392571d","title":"The dirty business of eliminating open defecation: The effect of village sanitation on child height from field experiments in four countries","abstract":"We examine the impacts of a sanitation program designed to eliminate open defecation in at-scale randomized field experiments in four countries: India, Indonesia, Mali, and Tanzania. The programs - all variants of the widely-used Community-Led Total Sanitation (CLTS) approach - increase village private sanitation coverage in all four locations by 7-39 percentage points. We use the experimentally-induced variation in access to sanitation to identify the causal relationship between village sanitation coverage and child height. We find evidence of threshold effects where increases in child health of 0.3 standard deviations are realized once village sanitation coverage reaches 50-75%. There do not appear to be further gains beyond this threshold. These results suggest that there are large health benefits to achieving coverage levels well below the 100% coverage pushed by the CLTS movement. Open defecation decreased in all countries through improved access to private sanitation facilities, and additionally through increased use of sanitation facilities in Mali who implemented the most intensive behavior change intervention.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Lisa Cameron","Paul Gertler","Manisha Shah","María Laura Alzúa","Sebastián Martínez","Sumeet Patil"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102990","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-156f058555b19c83","title":"Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform","abstract":"We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer-term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full-time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone-mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Richard Blundell","Mónica Costa Dias","Costas Meghir","Jonathan Shaw"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11576","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-15771d5f62b7d621","title":"Disclosure and pricing of attributes","abstract":"A monopolist sells an object characterized by multiple attributes. A buyer can be one of many types, differing in their willingness to pay for each attribute. The seller can provide arbitrary attribute information in the form of a statistical experiment. To screen different types, the seller offers a menu of options that specify information prices, experiments, and object prices. I characterize revenue‐maximizing menus. All experiments belong to a class of linear disclosure rules. An optimal menu may be nondiscriminatory. The analysis highlights the importance of demand microstructure and the benefits of information control in trade settings.","wordCount":96,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Alex Smolin"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12451","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-15811e4c4c53c865","title":"Quality as a latent heterogeneity factor in the efficiency of universities","abstract":"In this paper we show the usefulness of recent advanced nonparametric efficiency techniques to model the performance of universities in the presence of observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Using directional distances for benchmarking purposes, we identify a latent heterogeneity factor related to the human capital of the universities and their management, that is independent from their size, and interpret the identified latent factor as a “quality” factor of the universities. After testing the significance of this latent factor, we investigate its impact on the boundary of the production set (efficient frontier) and on the distances of the units from the efficient frontier. The frontier and the efficiency distribution of our European Universities sample appear influenced by our estimated latent quality factor. We investigate these impacts from various points of view, including the trade-off between our quality factor and efficiency as well as the roles of size and specialization.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Cinzia Daraio","Léopold Simar","Paul W. Wilson"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.03.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1589bd6fabff205a","title":"Targeting Interventions in Networks","abstract":"We study games in which a network mediates strategic spillovers and externalities among the players. How does a planner optimally target interventions that change individuals' private returns to investment? We analyze this question by decomposing any intervention into orthogonal principal components , which are determined by the network and are ordered according to their associated eigenvalues. There is a close connection between the nature of spillovers and the representation of various principal components in the optimal intervention. In games of strategic complements (substitutes), interventions place more weight on the top (bottom) principal components, which reflect more global (local) network structure. For large budgets, optimal interventions are simple—they essentially involve only a single principal component.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Andrea Galeotti","Benjamin Golub","Sanjeev Goyal"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16173","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-159fa6d1ef3818d5","title":"The labor market gender gap in Denmark: Sorting out the past 30 years","abstract":"We document the declining gap between the average earnings of women and men in Denmark from 1980 to 2010. The decline in the earnings gap is driven by increases in hours worked by women as well as a decline in the gender wage gap. The data show a great deal of segregation across education tracks, occupations, and even workplaces, but this segregation has declined since 1980. These changes in segregation have been accompanied by a reduction in the role of observables in explaining the gender wage gap. The residual gender wage gap has been constant since 1980. The hours gap is not affected by changes in segregation at the occupation and education level : differences in these characteristics for women relative to men do not contribute to the hours gap in 2010 and they did not in 1980. However, a firm-worker fixed effects analysis suggests that 30 percent of the gender hours gap can be explained by the sorting of women into lower-hours workplaces. The hours gap is driven by mothers, the group for whom differences in employer, occupation, education, and experience also imply large differences in wages. The combined effect of hours and wages is a more than 20 percent gender earnings gap among well-attached (halftime-plus) workers between 25 and 60 years old, 10 percent of which cannot be explained by differences in hours, or in the readily observable characteristics of these workers.","wordCount":234,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Yana Gallen","Rune Vammen Lesner","Rune Vejlin"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2018.11.003","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-15a5c7cef3ac9772","title":"Residential water conservation during drought: Experimental evidence from three behavioral interventions","abstract":"This paper deploys a framed field experiment and uses high-frequency data to evaluate the short- and long-run effects of three behavioral interventions on residential water use during extreme drought. Our study of the effects of Home Water Reports (HWRs) on hourly water use yields three main results. First, even when layered on top of a 25% drought conservation mandate, HWRs led to conservation effects of 4 to 5%. Second, across three variants of HWRs, the profile of water conservation is similar, suggesting that households did not respond to the messaging or recommendations contained in the HWRs. Third, the water conservation effect of all interventions dissipated five months after the intervention ended. In our setting, these behavioral interventions align with utility incentives to achieve immediate but temporary water conservation in response to drought.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Katrina Jessoe","Gabriel Lade","Frank J. Loge","Edward S. Spang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102519","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-15ac11b3162b5fbe","title":"The short-term economic effects of COVID-19 on low-income households in rural Kenya: An analysis using weekly financial household data","abstract":"This research assesses how low-income households in rural Kenya coped with the immediate economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses granular financial data from weekly household interviews covering six weeks before the first case was detected in Kenya to five weeks after during which various containment measures were implemented. Based on household-level fixed-effects regressions, our results suggest that income from work decreased with almost one-third and income from gifts and remittances reduced by more than one-third after the start of the pandemic. Nevertheless, household expenditures on food remained at pre-COVID levels. We do not find evidence that households coped with reduced income through increased borrowing, selling assets or withdrawing savings. Instead, they gave out less gifts and remittances themselves, lent less money to others and postponed loan repayments. Moreover, they significantly reduced expenditures on schooling and transportation, in line with the school closures and travel restrictions. Thus, despite their affected livelihoods, households managed to keep food expenditures at par, but this came at the cost of reduced informal risk-sharing and social support between households.","wordCount":175,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Wendy Janssens","Menno Pradhan","Richard de Groot","Estelle Sidze","Hermann Pythagore Pierre Donfouet","Amanuel Alemu Abajobir"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105280","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-15b3fc033ff56f2f","title":"Online advertising and privacy","abstract":"An online platform auctions an advertising slot. Several advertisers compete in the auction, and consumers differ in their preferences. Prior to the auction, the platform decides whether to allow advertisers to access information about consumers (disclosure) or not (privacy). Disclosure improves the match between advertisers and consumers but increases product prices, even without price‐discrimination. We provide conditions under which disclosure or privacy is privately and/or socially optimal. When advertisers compete on the downstream market, disclosure can lead to an increase or a decrease in product prices depending on the nature of the information.","wordCount":93,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Alexandre de Cornière","Romain de Nijs"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12118","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-15c678db2be3f32d","title":"The role of non-cognitive skills in farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures","abstract":"Farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures is key to successfully reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. This article investigates the role of non-cognitive skills, namely self-efficacy and locus of control, in farmers' uptake of mitigation measures. The study is based on a combination of survey and census data from 105 farmers in Switzerland. Almost all farmers in our sample already adopt some of the considered measures to reduce greenhouse gases on their farm. On average, 37% of the mitigation measures available to the specific farm type are adopted. We find that a one standard deviation increase in non-cognitive skills is associated with a 20 to 40% higher share of adopted mitigation measures. This relationship is robust to the inclusion of a comprehensive vector of controls, inspired both from the agricultural economics and the psychology literature. Additionally, we find that omitted variable bias would need to be implausibly large to refute our findings. Finally, we explore potential mechanisms. The suggested pathway through which non-cognitive skills are associated with the adoption of climate change mitigation measures is the innovativeness of the farmers. Fostering farmers' non-cognitive skills could be an effective policy lever to accelerate the diffusion of climate change mitigation measures.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Cordelia Kreft","Robert Huber","David Wuepper","Robert Finger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107169","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-15c7086abe1a9af5","title":"The Gender Wage Gap in Early Modern Toledo, 1550–1650","abstract":"We exploit the records of a large Toledan hospital to study the compensation of female labor and the gender wage gap in early modern Castile in the context of nursing—a non-gendered, low-skill occupation in which men and women performed the same clearly defined tasks. We employ a robust methodology to estimate the value of in-kind compensation, and show it to constitute a central part of the labor contract, far exceeding subsistence requirements. Patient admissions records are used to measure nurse productivity, which did not differ across genders. Female compensation varied between 70 percent and 100 percent of male levels, with fluctuations clearly linked to relative labor scarcity. Contrary to common assumptions in the literature, we show that markets played an important role in setting female compensation in early modern Castile. The sources of the gender disparity are, therefore, likely to be found in the broader social and cultural context.","wordCount":149,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Mauricio Drelichman","David Agudo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000145","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-15c84e1000c25cd8","title":"Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies","abstract":"Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on commodity exports, are prone to highly disruptive economic cycles. This paper proposes a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to quantitatively study the triggers of these cycles. The economy consists of two sectors, one of which produces commodities with prices subject to exogenous international fluctuations. These fluctuations affect both the competitiveness of the economy and its borrowing terms, as higher commodity prices are associated with lower spreads between the country's borrowing rate and world interest rates. Both effects jointly result in strongly positive effects of commodity price increases on GDP, consumption, and investment, and a negative effect on the total trade balance. Furthermore, they generate excess volatility of consumption over output and a large volatility of investment. Besides explicitly incorporating a double role of commodity prices, the model structure nests the various candidate sources of shocks proposed in previous work on emerging economy business cycles. Estimating the model on Argentine data, we find that the contribution of commodity price shocks to fluctuations in post-1950 output growth is in the order of 38%. In addition, commodity prices account for around 42% and 61% of the variation in consumption and investment growth, respectively. We find transitory productivity shocks to be an important driver of output fluctuations, exceeding the contribution of shocks to the trend, which, though smaller, is not negligible","wordCount":227,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Thomas Drechsel","Silvana Tenreyro"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.12.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-15d1695e3a00064b","title":"What is the Expected Return on the Market?","abstract":"I derive a lower bound on the equity premium in terms of a volatility index, SVIX, that can be calculated from index option prices. The bound implies that the equity premium is extremely volatile and that it rose above 20% at the height of the crisis in 2008. The time-series average of the lower bound is about 5%, suggesting that the bound may be approximately tight. I run predictive regressions and find that this hypothesis is not rejected by the data, so I use the SVIX index as a proxy for the equity premium and argue that the high equity premia available at times of stress largely reflect high expected returns over the very short run. I also provide a measure of the probability of a market crash, and introduce simple variance swaps, tradable contracts based on SVIX that are robust alternatives to variance swaps.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Ian Martin"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw034","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-15dc2d91cea69bf2","title":"Prescribed fires as a climate change adaptation tool","abstract":"Climate change has been shown to increase wildfire risk, while prescribed burning is a potential management action that landowners can perform to adapt to such climate-driven changes in risk. This study builds off natural resource economic theory to illustrate how wildfire is jointly determined with privately optimal prescribed burn decisions by landowners. We use panel data on prescribed burn permits across the southeastern U.S. states to empirically estimate (i) how climate and previous large wildfire events affect prescribed burn decisions and (ii) how climate and prescribed burning affect the occurrence of large wildfires. Based on an instrumental variables identification strategy, our estimated simultaneous system finds that a hotter and drier climate will increase prescribed burning, with landowner adaptation to corresponding wildfire risk being a key mechanism. By 2050, we find that a hotter and drier future climate will increase the number of large wildfires from 27 per year under current conditions to 36 per year with climate change but no climate adaptation, and 29 large wildfires per year with both climate change and climate adaptation. This paper provides intuition and quantitative evidence regarding the interaction between climate, wildfire, and landowner management adaptation.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Yukiko Hashida","David J. Lewis","Karen Cummins"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103081","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-15e3de93f44c2e74","title":"On evaluating the style-selection skill of hedge funds","abstract":"It opens a new perspective for managerial skills and supports investors. A distinctive feature of hedge funds is their dynamic style of trading; hedge funds may shift the investment style in their lifetime. Style shifting is a strategic decision for funds which is beyond the more traditional stock-picking and market-timing carried out at the operational level. This paper tests and validates the performance implications of style-selection skill of hedge funds. Based on the trading style identification through Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis and the measure of style-selection skill developed in this paper, we find that such skill has predictive power for future fund performance, persisting for up to one year. In addition, our findings reveal that funds exhibiting greater style-selection skill enhance the probability of survival. Furthermore, we show that smaller, solo-managed funds operated by managers with longer tenure and higher management fees tend to have greater style-selection skill. Our findings support investors’ decisions when selecting hedge funds. It also opens a new perspective for managerial skills in active money management, reflecting managers’ expertise in data processing about micro and macro information and shocks to achieve success, when considering the investment style.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["X. Ye","Baibing Li","Kai‐Hong Tee"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101683","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-15e686d8b26954f0","title":"Immigrants' Effect on Native Workers: New Analysis on Longitudinal Data","abstract":"Using longitudinal data on the universe of workers in Denmark during the period 1991–2008, we track the labor market outcomes of low-skilled natives in response to an exogenous inflow of low-skilled immigrants. We innovate on previous identification strategies by considering immigrants distributed across municipalities by a refugee dispersal policy in place between 1986 and 1998. We find that an increase in the supply of refugee-country immigrants pushed less educated native workers (especially the young and low-tenured ones) to pursue less manual-intensive occupations. As a result immigration had positive effects on native unskilled wages, employment, and occupational mobility.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Mette Foged","Giovanni Peri"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150114","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-15e92eb344f568de","title":"It takes two to dance: Institutional dynamics and climate-related financial policies","abstract":"This article studies how institutional dynamics might affect and be affected by the implementation of climate-related financial policies. First, we propose a three-dimensional framework to distinguish: i) motives for policy implementation (prudential or promotional); ii) policy instruments (informational, incentive-based or quantity-based); and iii) implementing authorities (political or delegated). Second, we use this framework to show how sustainable financial interventions in certain jurisdictions - most notably, Europe - rely predominantly on informational policy instruments to achieve both promotional and prudential objectives. Policymakers in other jurisdictions - e.g. China - also employ incentive- or quantity-based instruments to achieve promotional objectives. Third, we identify two main institutional explanations for this European ‘promotional gap’: i) a reduced intervention of political authorities on the allocation of financial resources; and ii) a stronger independence of technical delegated authorities supervising financial dynamics. This governance configuration leads to an institutional deadlock in which only measures fitting with both political and delegated authorities' objectives can be implemented. Finally, we identify and discuss the possible institutional scenarios that could originate from the current setting, and stress the need for close cooperation between political and delegated authorities.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Moritz Baer","Emanuele Campiglio","Jérôme Deyris"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107210","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-15f0b569c55acb7b","title":"The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities","abstract":"Any disruptive changes in the competitive environment, such as the U.S.-China trade war, may influence the price volatility of crude oil and agricultural commodities. This study examines the volatility linkage between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets in the context of the U.S.-China trade war and compares the impact of the trade war with that of other exogenous shocks. The results show that the volatility of soybeans exhibits the highest level of responsiveness to the U.S.-China trade war - which is not surprising given that the U.S. agribusiness trade to China is dominated by soybeans - followed by coffee and cotton. The sizes and dynamics of the impacts of shocks are largely commodity-specific. Notably, the trade war impacts most agricultural commodities more extensively than other exogenous shocks, including the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recession. These findings matter not only for the decision-making of investors and portfolio managers but also for commodity-exporting and importing countries because changes in the volatility dynamics of crude oil and agricultural commodities often impact export revenues and import expenditures and consequently feed through exports to the global supply chain under exogenous shocks such as the U.S.-China trade war.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Natalie Fang Ling Cheng","Akram Shavkatovich Hasanov","Wai Ching Poon","Elie Bouri"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106605","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-160c9952547ac99f","title":"Limit order revisions across investor sophistication","abstract":"We investigate whether investors’ levels of sophistication can result in differences in their cancellation and revision strategies. We use a unique dataset that encompasses all limit orders in the Taiwan futures market. Our results find that when investors face a higher free-option risk (non-execution risk), institutional investors increase their cancellations and revisions to reduce their risk of being picked off (non-execution). By contrast, individual investors are less likely to cancel and revise their limit orders. Higher informational volatility (transitory volatility) can improve (reduce) the revisions and cancellations of limit orders for all investor categories.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Junmao Chiu","Chin‐Ho Chen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.11.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1614843ecc16e608","title":"Robotization, internal migration and rural decline","abstract":"This paper is the first to analyze the effects of robotization on internal migration flows and rural decline, which is an important driving force of societal and political polarization in many developed economies. Using detailed migration flow data from Austria, I show that robotization has caused significant declines in manufacturing employment, to which populations reacted by increasingly migrating out of affected regions. Since rural regions rely much more than cities on manufacturing employment, these migratory responses largely consist of rural-to-urban flows. Overall, increases in robotization explain roughly one-fourth of rural-to-urban net migration between 2003 and 2016, which is primarily driven by young and medium/low-skilled individuals. Technology-driven labor demand shocks, thus, make an important contribution to rural decline, deepening the cleavage between advantaged and disadvantaged regions.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Karim Bekhtiar"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-025-01109-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1620e2bf07f632aa","title":"Fiduciary duty or loyalty? Evidence from co-opted boards and corporate misconduct","abstract":"We examine the effect of co-opted boards on corporate misconduct and document a significant positive relationship. Utilising a large sample of public U.S. companies from the period 2001 to 2015, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the proportion of co-opted directors on a board leads to a 4.3% rise in corporate misconduct. This outcome is robust to a series of sensitivity tests and continues to hold after accounting for potential endogeneity concerns. Further analyses indicate that co-opted directors propose fewer board agenda items, exhibit lower attendance at board meetings, and receive compensation packages in excess of industry norms, which exacerbate stakeholder-agency conflicts. Cross-sectional analysis demonstrates that the documented relationship is most pronounced among firms with weak external monitoring, greater CEO-board social ties, boards whose members have high career concerns, and where CEO power is low. Additional tests reveal that co-opted directors engage in more environmental- and workplace-related violations than other types of stakeholder violations. Overall, our investigation generates original evidence that the presence of co-opted directors aggravates the incidence of corporate wrongdoing. Our study contributes to the continuing debate on the role of boards of directors and has policy implications for those responsible for devising and monitoring effective systems of corporate governance.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Rashid Zaman","Nader Atawnah","Ghasan Baghdadi","Jia Liu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102066","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-16247058c561f603","title":"Bias of OLS Estimators due to Exclusion of Relevant Variables and Inclusion of Irrelevant Variables","abstract":"In this paper, I discuss three issues related to bias of OLS estimators in a general multivariate setting. First, I discuss the bias that arises from omitting relevant variables. I offer a geometric interpretation of such bias and derive sufficient conditions in terms of sign restrictions that allows us to determine the direction of bias. Second, I show that inclusion of some omitted variables will not necessarily reduce the magnitude of bias as long as some others remain omitted. Third, I show that inclusion of irrelevant variables in a model with omitted variables can also have an impact on the bias of OLS estimators. I use a running example of a simple wage regression to illustrate my arguments.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Deepankar Basu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12322","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-164d2b506b059499","title":"Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation","abstract":"We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in the United States, focusing on the role of inventive ability (“nature”) versus environment (“nurture”). Using deidentified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records, we first show that children's chances of becoming inventors vary sharply with characteristics at birth, such as their race, gender, and parents' socioeconomic class. For example, children from high-income (top 1%) families are 10 times as likely to become inventors as those from below-median income families. These gaps persist even among children with similar math test scores in early childhood-which are highly predictive of innovation rates-suggesting that the gaps may be driven by differences in environment rather than abilities to innovate. We directly establish the importance of environment by showing that exposure to innovation during childhood has significant causal effects on children's propensities to invent. Children whose families move to a high-innovation area when they are young are more likely to become inventors. These exposure effects are technology class and gender specific. Children who grow up in a neighborhood or family with a high innovation rate in a specific technology class are more likely to patent in exactly the same class. Girls are more likely to invent in a particular class if they grow up in an area with more women (but not men) who invent in that class. These gender- and technology class-specific exposure effects are more likely to be driven by narrow mechanisms, such as role-model or network effects, than factors that only affect general human capital accumulation, such as the quality of schools. Consistent with the importance of exposure effects in career selection, women and disadvantaged youth are as underrepresented among high-impact inventors as they are among inventors as a whole. These findings suggest that there are many “lost Einsteins”-individuals who would have had highly impactful inventions had they been exposed to innovation in childhood-especially among women, minorities, and children from low-income families.","wordCount":325,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Alex Bell","Raj Chetty","Xavier Jaravel","Neviana Petkova","John Van Reenen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-165b60f83b0eba51","title":"Analyzing the efficiency of pension reform: The role of the welfare effects of fiscal closures","abstract":"Replacing the pay-as-you-go defined benefit (PAYG DB) system with an at least partially funded defined contribution (DC) system generates fiscal costs that need financing. The fiscal closures at hand differ by the channel and the extent of distortions. The main contribution of this paper is a thorough comparison of the welfare effects of the various fiscal closures of the pension system reform. In addition, we decompose the welfare effects to the parts attributable to changing the way pensions are financed (PAYG ⇒ prefunding) and to changing the way pensions are computed (DB ⇒ DC). We show that depending on the fiscal closure, the welfare effects differ substantially for the same pension system reform. The financing of the the pension system gap with public debt allows more intergenerational redistribution.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Krzysztof Makarski","Jan Hagemejer","Joanna Tyrowicz"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000383","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-165e24144b8d4286","title":"Land Misallocation and Productivity","abstract":"Using detailed household-level data from Malawi on physical quantities of agricultural outputs and inputs, we measure farm total factor productivity (TFP), controlling for land quality, rain, and transitory shocks. We find that operated land size and capital are essentially unrelated to farm TFP, implying substantial factor misallocation. The agricultural output gain from a reallocation of factors to their efficient use among existing farmers is a factor between 1.7- and 2.8-fold. We provide suggestive evidence connecting misallocation with the extent of land markets and illustrate how an efficient allocation via rental markets can substantially reduce agricultural income inequality and poverty.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Chaoran Chen","Diego Restuccia","Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170229","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-165eb18b89359637","title":"Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities","abstract":"Using price quote data that underpin the official U.K. consumer price index (CPI), we analyze the effects of the unexpected passing of the Brexit referendum on the dynamics of price adjustments. The sizable depreciation of the British pound that immediately followed Brexit works as a quasi-experiment, enabling us to study the transmission of a large common marginal cost shock to inflation as well as the distribution of prices within granular product categories. The bulk of the aggregate inflationary effect is attributable to the size of price adjustments, an aspect matched well by the time-dependent price-setting model. The state-dependent model fares better in capturing the endogenous selection of price changes at the lower end of the price distribution. Both models miss on the magnitude of the adjustment conditional on selection.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Bart Hobijn","Fernanda Nechio","Adam Hale Shapiro"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103448","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-16698a1052f2cf79","title":"Workers’ Bargaining Power and the Phillips Curve: A Micro–Macro Analysis","abstract":"We use a general equilibrium model to show that a decrease in workers’ bargaining power amplifies the contribution to the output gap of adjustments along the extensive versus intensive margin of labour utilization. Under standard assumptions on the disutility of labour, this mechanism reduces the cyclical movements of inflation relative to those of the output gap. Micro-level evidence, based on a survey of Italian firms, provides support to the relationship between bargaining power and adjustments along the extensive margin versus the intensive one, as well as to attenuated price response when firms adjust labour input mainly through the extensive margin. A Bayesian estimation using Italian aggregate data for the samples 1970–1990 and 1991–2014 confirms that the decline in workers’ bargaining power has weakened the inflation–output gap relationship.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Marco J Lombardi","Marianna Riggi","Eliana Viviano"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16699923f19ed212","title":"Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal‐stopping problems","abstract":"I study endogenous learning dynamics for people who misperceive intertemporal correlations in random sequences. Biased agents face an optimal‐stopping problem. They are uncertain about the underlying distribution and learn its parameters from predecessors. Agents stop when early draws are “good enough,” so predecessors' experiences contain negative streaks but not positive streaks. When agents wrongly expect systematic reversals (the “gambler's fallacy”), they understate the likelihood of consecutive below‐average draws, converge to overpessimistic beliefs about the distribution's mean, and stop too early. Agents uncertain about the distribution's variance overestimate it to an extent that depends on predecessors' stopping thresholds. I also analyze how other misperceptions of intertemporal correlation interact with endogenous data censoring.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Kevin He"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4657","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-166a75599ecb6db5","title":"How history matters for student performance. lessons from the Partitions of Poland","abstract":"This paper examines the effect on current student performance of the 19th century Partitions of Poland among Austria, Prussia and Russia. Using a regression discontinuity design, I show that student test scores are 0.6 standard deviations higher on the Austrian side of the former Austrian-Russian border, despite the modern similarities of the three regions. However, I do not find evidence for differences across the Prussian-Russian border. Using a theoretical model and indirect evidence, I argue that the Partitions have persisted through their impact on social norms toward local schools. Nevertheless, the persistent effect of Austria is puzzling, given the historical similarities of the Austrian and Prussian education systems. I argue that the differential legacy of Austria and Prussia originates from the Austrian Empire’s policy to promote Polish identity in schools and the Prussian Empire’s efforts to Germanize the Poles through education.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Paweł Bukowski"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2018.10.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1672868a0a6255a7","title":"Real exchange rate policies for economic development","abstract":"This paper analyzes the role of real exchange rate (RER) policies in promoting economic development. Markets provide a suboptimal amount of investment in sectors characterized by learning spillovers. We show that a stable and competitive RER policy may correct for this externality and other related market failures. The resulting development of these sectors leads to overall faster economic growth. A system of effectively multiple exchange rates is required when spillovers across different tradable sectors differ. The impact of RER policies is increased when they are complemented by traditional industrial policies that increase the elasticity of the aggregate supply to the RER. Among the instruments required to implement a stable and competitive RER are interventions in the foreign exchange market and regulation of capital flows. We also discuss the trade-offs associated with alternative stable and competitive RER policies and the relationship between the use of exchange rate policies for macro-stability and for development.","wordCount":152,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Martín Guzmán","José Antonio Ocampo","Joseph E. Stiglitz"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.017","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-16954c04fd4c22c0","title":"Do microfinance institutions benefit from integrating financial and nonfinancial services?","abstract":"This article examines the impact of microfinance ‘plus’ (i.e. coordinated combination of financial and nonfinancial services) on the performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Using a global data set of MFIs in 77 countries, we find that the provision of nonfinancial services does not harm nor improve MFIs’ financial sustainability and efficiency. The results however suggest that the provision of social services is associated with improved loan quality and greater depth of outreach.","wordCount":72,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Robert Lensink","Roy Mersland","Nhung Vu","Stephen Zamore"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1397852","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-16a0c2ad61311520","title":"The Agricultural Wage Gap: Evidence from Brazilian Micro-data","abstract":"A key feature of developing economies is that wages in agriculture are below those of other sectors. Using Brazilian household surveys and administrative panel data, I use information on workers who switch sectors and workers with multiple jobs to assess the role of worker composition in explaining this gap. The evidence is consistent with the presence of significant intersector sorting in Brazil. A calibrated sorting model can account for the wage gap level observed, as well as its decline, as the economy transitioned out of agriculture.","wordCount":86,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Jorge Álvarez"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170436","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16a0fb40b6bddd95","title":"Politics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from India","abstract":"Political favoritism affects the allocation of government resources, but is it consequential for growth? Using a close election regression discontinuity design and data from India, we measure the local economic impact of being represented by a politician in the ruling party. Favoritism leads to higher private sector employment, higher share prices of firms, and increased output as measured by night lights; the three effects are similar and economically substantive. Finally, we present evidence that politicians influence firms primarily through control over the implementation of regulation.","wordCount":85,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Sam Asher","Paul Novosad"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150512","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16a3c9382b15e42c","title":"The Value of Foreign Language Skills in the German Labor Market","abstract":"This article explores the relationship between foreign language skills and individuals’ labor income in Germany, focusing on the English language. Using the 2012 and 2016 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel’s Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS), we find that native speakers of German with English language skills earn a wage premium of 13 percent, on average. Incremental improvements in the level of skills, e.g., from basic to independent user, increase wages by 11 percent, on average. We address endogeneity issues by using novel data that combine comprehensive information about individuals’ characteristics with fine-grained self-assessments of language skills based on descriptors derived from the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR). Any remaining sources of endogeneity in the level of language proficiency are addressed by an instrumental variable approach that exploits exogenous variation in individuals’ exposure to foreign language acquisition in school. We also show that wage differentials cannot be explained by the value of foreign language skills as a general ability signal, but they are driven by the productive value of such skills. Finally, by examining language skills instead of the use of such skills in the workplace, we identify individual returns to foreign languages for the general population. As education policy is the main determinant of English language acquisition (not only in Germany), this information is highly relevant for policy-makers.","wordCount":220,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Sabrina Hahm","Michele Gazzola"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102150","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-16a5afe447309652","title":"Non-Controlling Minority Shareholdings and Collusion","abstract":"This article merges theoretical literature on non-controlling minority shareholdings (NCMS) in a coherent model to study the effects of NCMS on competition and collusion. The model encompasses both the case of a common owner holding shares of rival firms as well as the case of cross ownership among rivals. We find that by softening competition, NCMS weaken the sustainability of collusion under a greater variety of situations than was indicated by earlier literature. Such effects exist, in particular, in the presence of an effective competition authority.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Samuel de Haas","Johannes Paha"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://hdl.handle.net/10419/289015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-16a886948b1614f5","title":"Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model","abstract":"The general equilibrium model developed by Golosov et al. (2014), GHKT for short, is modified to allow for additional negative impacts of global warming on utility and productivity growth, mean reversion in the ratio of climate damages to production, labour-augmenting technical progress, and population growth. We also replace the GHKT assumption of full depreciation of capital each decade by annual logarithmic depreciation. Furthermore, we allow the government to use a lower discount rate than the private sector. We derive a tractable rule for the optimal carbon price for each of these extensions. We then simplify the GHKT model by making temperature a linear function of cumulative emissions and making the proportion of output lost due to global warming a linear function of temperature. Finally, we consider how the rule for the optimal carbon price must be modified to allow for a temperature cap, and what this implies for stranded oil and gas reserves. We illustrate our analytical results with a range of optimal policy simulations.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Frederick van der Ploeg","Armon Rezai"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102522","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-16abe36cd997d9ac","title":"International migration and the religious schooling of children in the home country: evidence from Bangladesh","abstract":"This paper investigates whether international migration increases the religious schooling of children in the home country. I find that migration by a household member from Bangladesh to a Muslim-majority country increases the likelihood that a male child in the household is sent to an Islamic school ( madrasa ). There is no significant impact on the likelihood of a male child’s madrasa enrollment if the household sends a member to a non-Muslim-majority country. Sending a household member abroad does not affect the likelihood of the household sending children to school at all; it only leads to reallocation toward Islamic schooling. The results are inconsistent with financial remittances underlying the effect of migration on religious schooling. Learning about the potential benefits of madrasa education may explain the results, but there are several weaknesses in the arguments in favor of this mechanism. A third potential mechanism is an increase in religiosity through migrants transferring religious preferences, but I cannot establish a causal relationship between international migration and migrant-sending households’ religiosity.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Khandker Wahedur Rahman"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00912-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-16b2cde5cf9b974e","title":"Competitiveness and stress","abstract":"This study explores the relationship between competitiveness and stress. In Experiment 1, we observe a higher response of cortisol—the primary stress hormone—to the computation task coupled with tournament than to the computation task with piece rate. Moreover, more competitive subjects exhibit higher stress responses than their less competitive counterparts in the computation tasks under both tournament and piece rate. In Experiment 2, we find that exogenously induced stress does not significantly affect competitiveness. Overall, our findings reveal an important trade‐off between tournament and piece rate in terms of stress response with implications on the design of incentive contracts.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Songfa Zhong","Idan Shalev","David Koh","Richard P. Ebstein","Soo Hong Chew"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12303","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16b62889d9d3d3a1","title":"Can Chinese aid win the hearts and minds of Africa’s local population?","abstract":"The vast increase in China’s aid projects has raised mounting concerns about the effectiveness of Chinese aid. To assess Chinese development assistance in Africa from the perspective of local residents’ attitude toward Chinese projects, we geographically match Chinese aid projects in Africa from 2000 to 2012 to the respondents of the Afrobarometer survey. By comparing the attitudes toward China reported by individuals who live close to ongoing Chinese projects at the time of the interview to those of individuals who live near sites where Chinese projects will be implemented in the future, this study establishes that the presence of Chinese projects induces a positive view of Chinese aid within the local population. Our mechanism analysis shows that people from all statuses can benefit from economic infrastructure projects, while the advantaged tend to have a better view of Chinese aid. In contrast, social infrastructure aid inspires a more positive view among disadvantaged people. We thus demonstrate that aid can have a differential impact on local attitudes, depending on aid types and statuses of recipients.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Zhicheng Xu","Zhang Yu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.12.017","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-16b8a293c712812f","title":"Trade Unions and the Process of Technological Change","abstract":"We investigate how trade unions influence the process of technological change at the workplace level. Using matched employer-employee data, comprising all Norwegian workplaces and working individuals in the period 2000-2014, we exploit exogeneous changes in the tax rules for union members to identify how changes in unionization rates affect the structural composition of occupations within workplaces. Making a distinction between routine and non-routine workers, based on their estimated probabilities of being replaced by automation technologies, we show how labor unions contribute to raising the relative wage of routine workers over non-routine workers. As routine workers on average have lower earnings than non-routine workers, unions thereby contribute to compress wages at the workplace level. The direct implication of this policy is shown to reduce the relative demand for routine workers over non-routine workers in unionized establishments. However, our results also suggest that unions influence the relative demand for routine workers, conditional on relative wages. Our findings thus give some support to bargaining theories where unions force firms off their demand curves.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Fredrik B. Kostøl","Elin Svarstad"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102386","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-16c0df6fdff71cff","title":"Data‐enabled learning, network effects, and competitive advantage","abstract":"We model dynamic competition between firms which improve their products through learning from customer data, either by pooling different customers' data (across‐user learning) or by learning from repeated usage of the same customers (within‐user learning). We show how a firm's competitive advantage is affected by the shape of firms' learning functions, asymmetries between their learning functions, the extent of data accumulation, and customer beliefs. We also explore how public policies toward data sharing, user privacy, and killer data acquisitions affect competitive dynamics and efficiency. Finally, we show conditions under which a consumer coordination problem arises endogenously from data‐enabled learning.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Andrei Hagiu","Julian Wright"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12453","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16c2fd64283a3884","title":"Upstream Product Market Regulations, ICT, R&D and Productivity","abstract":"Our study investigates the importance of two main channels through which upstream anti‐competitive sector regulations impact productivity growth: investments in R&D and in ICT, as opposed to alternative channels we cannot explicitly consider for lack of appropriate data such as improvements in skills, management and organization. We specify a three equations model: an extended production function relating total factor productivity to both R&D and ICT capital, and to upstream regulations, and two factor demand functions relating R&D and ICT capital to upstream regulations. We estimate these relations on an unbalanced panel of 15 OECD countries and 13 industries over the period 1987–2007. We find that the total impact of upstream regulations on total factor productivity is sizeable, a large part of which is transmitted through investments in R&D and ICT, mainly the former.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Gilbert Cette","Jimmy Lopez","Jacques Mairesse"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12252","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16cd2a65be37b04e","title":"Declining Business Dynamism: What We Know and the Way Forward","abstract":"A growing body of evidence indicates that the U.S. economy has become less dynamic in recent years. This trend is evident in declining rates of gross job and worker flows as well as declining rates of entrepreneurship and young firm activity, and the trend is pervasive across industries, regions, and firm size classes. We describe the evidence on these changes in the U.S. economy by reviewing existing research. We then describe new empirical facts about the relationship between establishment-level productivity and employment growth, framing our results in terms of canonical models of firm dynamics and suggesting empirically testable potential explanations.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Ryan A. Decker","John Haltiwanger","Ron S. Jarmin","Javier Miranda"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20161050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16dc9adc77a2e088","title":"Markov switching panel with endogenous synchronization effects","abstract":"This paper introduces a new dynamic panel model with multi-layer network effects. Series-specific latent Markov chain processes drive the dynamics of the observable processes, and several types of interaction effects among the hidden chains allow for various degrees of endogenous synchronization of both latent and observable processes. The interaction is driven by a multi-layer network with exogenous and endogenous connectivity layers. We provide some theoretical properties of the model, develop a Bayesian inference framework and an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating parameters, latent states, and endogenous network layers. An application to the US-state coincident indicators shows that the synchronization in the US economy is generated by network effects among the states. The inclusion of a multi-layer network provides a new tool for measuring the effects of the public policies that impact the connectivity between the US states, such as mobility restrictions or job support schemes. The proposed new model and the related inference are general and may find application in a wide spectrum of datasets where the extraction of endogenous interaction effects is relevant and of interest.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Komla Agudze","Monica Billio","Roberto Casarin","Francesco Ravazzolo"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407621001251","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-16f3d5cdd2063127","title":"The Home Front: Rent Control and the Rapid Wartime Increase in Home Ownership","abstract":"The U.S. home ownership rate rose by 10 percentage points between 1940 and 1945, despite severe restrictions on construction during World War II. I investigate whether wartime rent control played a role in this shift. The empirical test exploits variation in rent reductions across cities that had similar increases in rents prior to control. This variation does not appear to be correlated with underlying trends also driving home ownership. Greater initial rent reductions led to larger increases in home ownership; rent control can account for a significant share of the increase in home ownership over the early 1940s.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Daniel Fetter"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716001017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-16f534601c73c17d","title":"Tariff‐jumping foreign direct investment in protectionist era Ireland","abstract":"The Committee on Industrial Organisation was established in the early 1960s to evaluate the level of preparedness of Irish industry for the imminent dismantling of the country's protectionist trade barriers. The Committee's sectoral reports list the 900 or so manufacturing firms that it surveyed and that together accounted for more than half of Irish manufacturing employment. From a range of archival sources, this article identifies the nationality of ownership of most of these firms, alongside their date of establishment and level of employment in 1960. Industrial grants data are used to strip out export‐oriented businesses that began to arrive in the 1950s. This makes it possible to estimate the employment share and sectoral presence of tariff‐jumping foreign firms. The latter is analysed through the lens of modern perspectives on foreign direct investment. The article also enhances our understanding of the interest‐group politics of the trade liberalization process.","wordCount":147,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Frank Barry","Linda Barry","Aisling Menton"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12329","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1722b56ef250d56a","title":"Testing for a unit root against transitional autoregressive models","abstract":"This article develops a novel test for a unit root in general transitional autoregressive models, which is based on the infimum of t ‐ratios for the coefficient of a parametrized transition function. Our test allows for very flexible specifications of the transition function and short‐run dynamics and is significantly more powerful than all the other existing tests. Moreover, we develop a large sample theory general enough to deal with randomly drifting parameter spaces, which is essential to properly test for a unit root against stationary transitional models. An empirical application of our test to the exchange rate data is also provided.","wordCount":101,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Joon‐Young Park","Mototsugu Shintani"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12171","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-17241bb10c2076a1","title":"Do parental time investments react to changes in child’s skills and health?","abstract":"Parental time investment decisions have been found to have important effects on child development; however, little is known about the response of parents to changes in their child’s human capital across time. Using the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, we measure time investments considering the time young children spend, with or without parents, in different activities. By adopting a child fixed-effect instrumental variable estimation, we find that parents reinforce for high socio-emotional skills by spending more time socialising with their child and compensate for low cognitive skills by increasing the time the child spends in learning activities.","wordCount":97,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Cheti Nicoletti","Valentina Tonei"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103491","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-172565aeb8b60a06","title":"Identifying the causal effect of alcohol abuse on the perpetration of intimate partner violence by men using a natural experiment","abstract":"Intimate partner violence (IPV) is widespread and has substantial negative consequences. Researchers have documented a strong positive correlation between alcohol abuse and IPV. However, alcohol abuse is potentially endogenous to IPV. We deal with this problem by exploring a unique instrumental variable—the September 11 terrorist attack—in Wave III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Ordinary least squares results confirm a strong positive correlation between alcohol abuse and IPV. However, our two-stage least squares results are statistically insignificant. These results indicate that alcohol abuse might not have a causal effect on IPV and, therefore, have important policy implications.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Susan L. Averett","Yang Wang"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12104","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-172a2112ffcaf731","title":"A time-varying approach of the us welfare cost of inflation","abstract":"Money-demand specifications exhibit instability, especially for long spans of data. This paper reconsiders the welfare cost of inflation for the US economy using a flexible time-varying (TV) cointegration methodology to estimate the money-demand function. We find evidence that the TV cointegration estimation provides a better fit of the actual data than a time-invariant estimation and that the throughout unitary income elasticity only exists for the log–log form over the entire sample period. Our estimate of the welfare cost of inflation for a 10% inflation rate lies in the range of 0.025–0.75% of gross domestic product (GDP) and averages 0.27%. In sum, our findings fall well within the ranges of existing studies of the welfare cost of inflation. We find that the welfare cost averages 7.4% higher during expansions than recessions for 10% inflation rate. Finally, the interest elasticity of money demand shows substantial variability over our sample period.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Stephen M. Miller","Luís F. Martins","Rangan Gupta"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000037","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1734b98e0ee61bcb","title":"Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations","abstract":"The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on March 3, 2020, in response to COVID-19. On March 5 and 6, I surveyed over 500 consumers about their concerns about COVID-19, awareness of the Fed's announcement, and macroeconomic expectations. Most consumers were concerned about effects of COVID-19 on the economy, their health, and their personal finances. About 38% were aware that the Fed had cut interest rates. Greater concern is associated with higher inflation expectations and more pessimistic unemployment expectations. I informed respondents about the Fed's announcement, which led some consumers to become more optimistic about unemployment and revise inflation expectations downward.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Carola Binder"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00931","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-173b531943c511df","title":"The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices","abstract":"This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across consumers of the sharp drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identification. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, high-frequency, transaction-level data for a large panel of individuals. The average estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of unanticipated, permanent shocks to income is approximately one. This estimate accounts for the elasticity of demand for gasoline and potential slow adjustment to changes in prices. The high MPC implies that changes in gasoline prices have large aggregate effects.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Michael Gelman","Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Shachar Kariv","Dmitri Koustas","Matthew D. Shapiro","Dan Silverman","Steven Tadelis"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-175b8af0c35aa436","title":"CEO mobility and corporate policy risk","abstract":"Career concerns can limit a manager's willingness to take risks, which can lead to excessive policy conservatism. An increase in a CEO's ability and willingness to change jobs (CEO mobility) can diversify her human capital and reduce her conservatism. We derive several CEO mobility measures and relate them to a policy riskiness index that captures the overall risk embedded in a firm's corporate policies. We find a strong positive relation between CEO mobility and the riskiness of corporate policies. We also link external regulatory shocks that constrain labor mobility to significant drops in corporate risk-taking.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Gönül Çolak","Timo Korkeamäki"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102037","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-175e19e3db68fe65","title":"Trust in public institutions, inequality, and digital interaction: Empirical evidence from European Union countries","abstract":"Declining institutional trust is one of the central problems in modern societies. Identifying its determinants, among which inequality, is fundamental for designing suitable interventions to restore confidence in institutions and preserve the social contract. We study the relationship between the two phenomena for EU-28 countries over the period 2003-2019. We use OLS and IV estimations to show that increasing income inequality is significantly associated with reduced trust in national governments. We also find that citizens’ digital interaction with the public administrations represents a mitigating channel as it contributes to shrinking the adverse effect of inequality on institutional trust, especially for more vulnerable categories in society, such as individuals with low educational attainment and those who are unemployed. These new insights might be particularly helpful for the government's agenda to meet transparency goals and provide more digital public services. From a policy viewpoint, redistribution policies combined with a well-established e-relationship between citizens and governments may be the road to restore trust in institutions.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Flaviana Palmisano","Agnese Sacchi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103582","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1774e89a1de45bd9","title":"Forecasting inflation using sentiment","abstract":"Using algorithmically scored sentiment of almost 730.000 news articles between Q1 2003 and Q4 2021, we construct an index and analyze its predictive power for US inflation for up to eight quarters. In a pseudo out-of-sample setting, we show that sentiment is able to forecast inflation more accurately than a naïve random walk with root mean squared errors that are around 30 percent lower depending on the forecasting horizon. Against other often used benchmarks, forecasting models using macroeconomic variables and Michigan surveys, forecasting accuracy of our sentiment index tends to outperform for shorter forecasting horizons.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Patrick Eugster","Matthias Uhl"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111575","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1784eb4d6c2a238b","title":"Competition in Pricing Algorithms","abstract":"We document new facts about pricing technology using high-frequency data, and we examine the implications for competition. Some online retailers employ technology that allows for more frequent price changes and automated responses to price changes by rivals. Motivated by these facts, we consider a model in which firms can differ in pricing frequency and choose pricing algorithms that are a function of rivals’ prices. In competitive (Markov perfect) equilibrium, the introduction of simple pricing algorithms can increase price levels, generate price dispersion, and exacerbate the price effects of mergers.","wordCount":89,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Zach Y. Brown","Alexander MacKay"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20210158","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1794063251389d6f","title":"Do people care about loss probabilities?","abstract":"In a series of experiments, we provide evidence that people pay special attention to the probability of losing. We first analyze this behavior in the typically used one-shot choice tasks. We then extend our analysis to repeated decisions in choice tasks, as well as allocation and investment tasks. Additionally, we test both decision making under risk and under gradually removed uncertainty, as with decisions from experience. Our findings of explicit attention to loss probabilities contradict the predictions of normative and descriptive decision theories, such as Expected Utility Theory and (Cumulative) Prospect Theory. We suggest a value function with a jump rather than a kink at the reference point, which separates gains and losses.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Stefan Zeisberger"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09391-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-179f6c0392f35e8f","title":"Inequality in socio-emotional skills: A cross-cohort comparison","abstract":"We examine changes in inequality in socio-emotional skills very early in life in two British cohorts born 30 years apart. We construct comparable scales using two validated instruments for the measurement of child behaviour and identify two dimensions of socio-emotional skills: ‘internalising’ and ‘externalising’. Using recent methodological advances in factor analysis, we establish comparability in the inequality of these early skills across cohorts, but not in their average level. We document for the first time that inequality in socio-emotional skills has increased across cohorts, especially for boys and at the bottom of the distribution. We also formally decompose the sources of the increase in inequality and find that compositional changes explain half of the rise in inequality in externalising skills. On the other hand, the increase in inequality in internalising skills seems entirely driven by changes in returns to background characteristics. Lastly, we document that socio-emotional skills measured at an earlier age than in most of the existing literature are significant predictors of health and health behaviours. Our results show the importance of formally testing comparability of measurements to study skills differences across groups, and in general point to the role of inequalities in the early years for the accumulation of health and human capital across the life course.","wordCount":209,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Orazio Attanasio","Richard Blundell","Gabriella Conti","Giacomo Mason"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104171","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-17a2970463a5b78e","title":"Price Transparency, Media, and Informative Advertising","abstract":"We study the effects of a price transparency regulation in Israeli supermarkets. Using price data collected before and after the regulation and a difference-in-difference research design, we show that price levels and price dispersion declined significantly after the regulation. Chains also began setting identical prices in all stores. We use Robert and Stahl (1993) to interpret our findings, showing that low-priced chains extensively used price advertising after prices became transparent. These chains referenced price-comparison surveys conducted by the media to induce credibility for ads. Our findings highlight the importance of price transparency and the procompetitive role of informative advertising.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Itai Ater","Oren Rigbi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200337","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-17a8504934d09aae","title":"A theoretical framework of decision making explaining the mechanisms of nudging","abstract":"We present a theoretical model to clarify the underlying mechanisms that drive individual decision making and responses to behavioral interventions, such as nudges. The model provides a theoretical framework that comprehensively structures the individual decision-making process applicable to a wide range of choice situations. We also identify the mechanisms behind the effectiveness of behavioral interventions—in particular, nudges—based on this structured decision-making process. Hence, the model can be used to predict under which circumstances, and in which choice situations, a nudge is likely to be effective.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Åsa Löfgren","Katarina Nordblom"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.03.021","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-17a9adbba82bc2ab","title":"Union Density Effects on Productivity and Wages","abstract":"We exploit changes in tax subsidies for union members in Norway to identify the effects of changes in firm-level union density on productivity and wages. Increased deductions in taxable income for union members led to higher membership rates and contributed to a lower decline in union membership rates over time in Norway. Accounting for selection effects and the potential endogeneity of unionisation, the results show that increasing union density at the firm level leads to a substantial increase in both productivity and wages. The wage effect is larger in more productive firms, consistent with rent-sharing models.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Erling Barth","Alex Bryson","Harald Dale‐Olsen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa048","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-17abd07f4952bab0","title":"Economic freedom and growth, income, investment, and inequality: A quantitative summary of the literature","abstract":"This study examines the published estimates on the relationship between economic freedom, as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index, and measures of growth, income, investment, and inequality. We obtained 696 point estimates for economic freedom‐growth from 54 articles, 386 estimates for economic freedom‐income from 23 articles, 343 estimates for economic freedom‐investment from 32 articles, and 759 estimates for economic freedom‐inequality from 26 articles. The published estimates support the view that economic freedom is positively related to growth, income, and investment. The level of economic freedom appears to be simply unrelated to inequality, though increases in economic freedom may correlate with higher inequality.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Robert A. Lawson","Vincent Miozzi","Meg Patrick Tuszynski"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12680","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-17e03d00fba296a6","title":"Universal Cash Transfers and Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"One major criticism of Universal Basic Income is that unconditional cash transfers discourage recipients from working. Evidence to date has largely relied on targeted and/or conditional transfer programs. However, it is difficult to draw conclusions from such programs because universal transfers may induce a positive demand shock by distributing cash to a large portion of the population, which may in turn offset any negative labor supply responses. We estimate the causal effects of universal cash transfers on short‐run labor market activity by exploiting the timing and variation in size of a long‐running unconditional and universal transfer: Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend. We find evidence of both a positive labor demand and negative labor supply response to the transfers. Small negative effects on the number of hours worked are found for women, especially those with young children. In contrast, we find an increase in the probability of employment for males in the months following the distribution. Altogether, a $1,000 increase in the per‐person disbursement leads to a 0.8 percent labor market contraction on an annual basis.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Andrew J. Bibler","Mouhcine Guettabi","Matthew Reimer"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cv5f6gj","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-17e6a6a64a97a26b","title":"Cash on delivery: Results of a randomized experiment to promote maternal health care in Kenya","abstract":"SMS text reminders did not have any effect on institutional deliveries. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment to test whether vouchers, cash transfers, and SMS messages were effective in boosting facility delivery rates among poor, pregnant women in rural Kenya. We find a strong effect of the full vouchers and the conditional cash transfers: 48% of women with access to both interventions delivered in a health facility, while only 36% of those with neither did. Amongst women who did not receive a cash transfer, we find that a small copayment dramatically reduced voucher effectiveness, suggesting a discontinuous impact of cost-sharing on the demand for health services. Both the unconditional cash transfer and the text messages had limited effect on the use of health services. Finally, we also find no evidence that a government policy to eliminate user fees increased demand for maternal health services.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Karen A. Grépin","James Habyarimana","William Jack"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-17eab40177a65c8c","title":"The regional economic impact of wildfires: Evidence from Southern Europe","abstract":"We estimate the impact of wildfires on the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment of regional economies in Southern Europe from 2011 to 2018. To this end we match Eurostat economic data with geospatial burned area perimeters based on satellite imagery for 233 Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 3 level regions in Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece. Our panel fixed effects instrumental variable estimation results suggest an average contemporary decrease in a region’s annual GDP growth rate of 0.11–0.18% conditional on having experienced at least one wildfire. For an average wildfire season this leads to a yearly production loss of 13–21 billion euros for Southern Europe. The impact on the employment growth rate is heterogeneous across economic activity types in that there is a decrease in the average annual employment growth rate for activities related to retail and tourism (e.g., transport, accommodation, food service activities) of 0.09–0.15%, offset by employment growth in insurance, real estate, administrative, and support service related activities of 0.13–0.22%.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Sarah Meier","Robert Elliott","Eric Strobl"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102787","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-17fb0999144c56e9","title":"Do environmental markets cause environmental injustice? Evidence from California’s carbon market","abstract":"Market-based environmental policies are widely adopted on the basis of allocative efficiency. However, there is growing concern that market-induced spatial reallocation of pollution could widen existing pollution concentration gaps between disadvantaged and other communities. We examine how this “environmental justice” (EJ) gap changed following the 2013 introduction of California’s carbon market, the world’s second largest and the most subjected to EJ critiques. We estimate that the program lowered GHG, PM2.5, PM10, and NOx emissions by 3–9% annually between 2012–2017 for sample industrial facilities regulated only by the carbon market. Using a pollution dispersal model to characterize resulting spatial changes in pollution concentrations, we find the program caused EJ gaps in PM2.5, PM10, and NOx from these facilities to narrow by 6–10% annually. We demonstrate that explicit modeling of pollution dispersal is critical for detecting these results.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Danae Hernández-Cortés","Kyle C. Meng"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104786","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-17fcda9d6ef973b3","title":"The supply of foreign talent: how skill-biased technology drives the location choice and skills of new immigrants","abstract":"An important goal of immigration policy is facilitating the entry of foreign-born workers whose skills are in short supply in destination labor markets. In recent decades, information and communication technology (ICT) has fueled the demand for highly educated workers at the expense of less-educated groups. Exploiting the fact that regions in Switzerland have been differentially exposed to ICT due to their pre-ICT industrial composition, we present evidence suggesting that more exposed regions experienced stronger ICT adoption, accompanied by considerably stronger growth in relative employment and wage premia for college-educated workers. Following this change in the landscape of relative economic opportunities, we find robust evidence that these regions experienced a much larger influx of highly educated immigrants in absolute terms as well as relative to lower educated groups. Our results suggest that immigrants’ location decisions respond strongly to these long-run, technology-driven changes in their economic opportunities.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Andreas Beerli","Ronald Indergand","Johannes Kunz"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://research.monash.edu/en/publications/5f179e44-2758-44b3-92b4-61da74292d20","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-180db557d9345e7b","title":"Willingness-to-pay for urban ecosystem services provision under objective and subjective uncertainty","abstract":"There is growing concern that failure to acknowledge the risk and uncertainty surrounding ecosystem services (ES) delivery could have adverse effects on support for ES policy intervention in the long run. However, acknowledging risk may reduce support for policy interventions in the short term. In this paper, we sought to determine whether willingness-to-pay (WTP) for urban forest ES in Southampton, UK is affected by objective and subjective uncertainty surrounding ES delivery. We conducted a discrete choice experiment with a split sample design: one with a scenario specifying risky ES outcomes and one where zero risk was implied. Respondents’ subjective certainty surrounding the provision of ES was determined before and after the choice questions. Despite respondents’ risk aversion, introducing an objective likelihood attribute did not reduce WTP compared to the scenario with implied certain ES outcomes. Furthermore, whilst WTP for the overall scheme was found to be adversely affected by the presence of risk around ES outcomes, subjective uncertainty seemed to reduce WTP more than objective probabilities. Our results therefore support the idea that both objective probabilities and subjective uncertainty should be explicitly incorporated in the design of stated preference studies for ES valuation.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Helen Davies","Hangjian Wu","Marije Schaafsma"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101344","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1826e19f31cc4cce","title":"Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning","abstract":"Under the assumption that individuals know the conditional distributions of signals given the payoff-relevant parameters, existing results conclude that as individuals observe infinitely many signals, their beliefs about the parameters will eventually merge. We first show that these results are fragile when individuals are uncertain about the signal distributions: given any such model, vanishingly small individual uncertainty about the signal distributions can lead to substantial (nonvanishing) differences in asymptotic beliefs. Under a uniform convergence assumption, we then characterize the conditions under which a small amount of uncertainty leads to significant asymptotic disagreement.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Victor Chernozhukov","Muhamet Yıldız"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te436","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-182dc305fa1ce36e","title":"The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets","abstract":"This article examines the link between the opportunity cost of money and time-varying liquidity premia of near-money assets. Higher interest rates imply higher opportunity costs of holding money and hence a higher premium for the liquidity service benefits of assets that are close substitutes for money. Consistent with this theory, short-term interest rates in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada have a strong positive relationship with the liquidity premium of Treasury bills and other near-money assets over periods going back to the 1920s. Once the opportunity cost of money is taken into account, Treasury security supply variables lose their explanatory power for the liquidity premium, except for transitory short-run effects. These findings indicate a high elasticity of substitution between money and near-money assets. As a consequence, a central bank that follows an interest rate operating target not only elastically accommodates and neutralizes shocks to money demand, but effectively also shocks to near-money asset supply and demand.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Stefan Nagel"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1845dadf173eb4bd","title":"Score-driven models for realized volatility","abstract":"This paper sets up a statistical framework for modeling realized volatility (RV) using a Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) model. It first shows how, for a dataset on stock indices, a preliminary analysis of RV, based on fitting a linear Gaussian model to its logarithm, suggests the use of a two component dynamic specification. It also indicates a departure from normality, a weekly pattern in the data and the presence of heteroscedasticity. Fitting the two component DCS specification with leverage and a day of the week effect is then carried out directly on RV with a Generalized Beta of the Second Kind (GB2) conditional distribution or, equivalently, on the logarithm of RV with an Exponential Generalized Beta of the Second Kind (EGB2) distribution. The forecasting performance of this model, with and without heteroscedasticity, is compared with that of the Heterogeneous Autoregression (HAR), some extensions of it and some other models. Overall there is a clear gain from using the GB2-DCS model, even when the HAR model uses additional information, such as realized semi-variance. When the aim is to forecast tail behavior, the fat-tailed GB2 model performs much better than models with thin-tailed distributions. A further exercise uses a dataset on exchange rates to compare GB2-DCS models with models that use realized quarticity. Again the additional information offers no forecasting advantage. Overall the GB2-DCS models are transparent, provide a comprehensive description of the properties of RV, and are difficult to beat for forecasting.","wordCount":241,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Andrew Harvey","Dario Palumbo"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.01.029","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1848f004b57a3206","title":"The Effect of Teacher Gender on Students’ Academic and Noncognitive Outcomes","abstract":"This paper examines the role of teacher gender in education production. We extend student outcomes from traditionally focused academic achievement to noncognitive outcomes. Using a representative survey of middle school students in China, we focus on schools where student-teacher assignments are random. Our results show that having a female teacher raises girls’ test scores and improves their mental status and social acclimation relative to those of boys. There is evidence that female teachers provide feedback differently to girls and boys and that having a female teacher alters girls’ beliefs about commonly held gender stereotypes and increases their motivation to learn.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jie Gong","Yi Lu","Hong Song"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696203","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-184dba394ee823fc","title":"When do shelter‐in‐place orders fight covid‐19 best? Policy heterogeneity across states and adoption time","abstract":"This study explores the impact of Shelter‐in‐Place Orders (SIPOs) on health, with attention to heterogeneity in their impacts. First, using daily state‐level social distancing data, we document that adoption of a SIPO was associated with a 9%–10% increase in the rate at which state residents remained in their homes full‐time. Using daily state‐level coronavirus case data, we find that approximately 3 weeks following the adoption of a SIPO, cumulative COVID‐19 cases fell by approximately 53.5%. However, this average effect masks important heterogeneity across states‐early adopters and high population density states appear to reap larger benefits from their SIPOs.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Dhaval Dave","Andrew Friedson","Kyutaro Matsuzawa","Joseph J. Sabia"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12944","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1853edc0a937a206","title":"School Finance Equalization Increases Intergenerational Mobility","abstract":"This paper estimates the causal effect of equalizing revenues across school districts on students’ intergenerational mobility. I exploit cohort differences in exposure to equalization generated by state-level reforms. To address the endogeneity of postreform revenues due to household sorting after a reform, I use a simulated-instruments approach that uses newly collected data on states’ funding formulas to simulate revenues without sorting. I find that equalization has a large effect on the mobility of low-income students. Reductions in input gaps between low-income and high-income districts are likely channels behind this effect.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Barbara Biasi"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718980","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-185a351f2db3f7e9","title":"Risk Preferences and the Macroeconomic Announcement Premium","abstract":"This paper develops a revealed preference theory for the equity premium around macroeconomic announcements. Stock returns realized around pre‐scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report and the FOMC statements, account for 55% of the market equity premium. We provide a characterization theorem for the set of intertemporal preferences that generates a nonnegative announcement premium. Our theory establishes that the announcement premium identifies a significant deviation from time‐separable expected utility and provides asset‐market‐based evidence for a large class of non‐expected utility models. We also provide conditions under which asset prices may rise prior to some macroeconomic announcements and exhibit a pre‐announcement drift.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Hengjie Ai","Ravi Bansal"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14607","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-185c89b3e41946bb","title":"Measuring Heterogeneous Price Effects for Home Acquisition Programs in At‐Risk Regions","abstract":"Any entity offering flood insurance, whether it is private or government‐administered such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), faces the challenge of solvency. This is especially true for the NFIP, where homeowner affordability criteria limit the opportunity to charge fully risk‐based premiums. One solution is to remove the highest flood risk properties from the insurer's book of business. Acquisition (buyout) of flood‐prone structures is a potentially permanent solution that eliminates the highest risk properties while providing homeowners with financial assistance to relocate in a less risky location. To encourage participation, homeowners are offered a preflood fair market value of their damaged (or at risk of damage) structures. Although many factors have been shown to affect a homeowner's decision to accept an acquisition offer, very little research has been devoted to the influence of price or monetary incentive offered on homeowners' willingness to participate in acquisition programs. We estimate a pooled probit model and employ a bootstrap methodology to determine the effects of hypothetical home price offers on homeowners' acquisition decisions. We do so while controlling for environmental factors, property characteristics, and homeowner sociodemographic characteristics. Results show that price indeed has a positive effect on likelihood of accepting an acquisition contract. Furthermore, estimated homeowner supply curves differ significantly based on the damage status of the acquisition offer, as well as homeowner and property characteristics.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Eugene Frimpong","Jamie Kruse","Gregory Howard","Rachel A. Davidson","Joseph Trainor","Linda K. Nozick"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12341","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-186915e61ba7c2da","title":"Identification of the private-public wage gap","abstract":"We suggest an identification strategy for the private-public sector wage gap to correct for the bias resulting from the heterogeneity of unobservable characteristics between shifters and stayers. The analysis applies a fixed effect difference-in-difference model with event study design to estimate the wage gap. As the parallel wage trend assumption between shifters from the public to the private sector and public sector stayers is rejected, late shifters still in the public sector are used as counterfactual group for early shifters. The estimates are based on rich register data for high-educated workers in Norway 1993–2010. Using this novel identification method, we show that due to positive selection, the private-public wage gap is overestimated by about 20% in the standard model comparing shifters with stayers. In an extension of the analysis, we show that the overestimation is the same for male and female workers and is robust across business cycles, although the size of the wage gap is pro-cyclical.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Jørn Rattsø","Hildegunn E. Stokke"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2019.04.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-18703b51776f250a","title":"Competition and Fan Substitution Between Professional Sports Leagues","abstract":"A peculiarity in professional sports is the fact that leagues regularly hold monopoly power within their sports. However, whether and to what extent these leagues may compete with other leagues across sports is relatively unexplored. This paper contributes to the literature by analyzing competition and fan substitution in Germany, where top-tier league managers in handball, basketball, and ice hockey have recently claimed that their teams suffer from football’s dominant position. Our attendance demand models confirm the existence of significant substitution effects in this setting, which suggests that leagues indeed do compete economically across sports for fan attendance .","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Tim Wallrafen","Georgios Nalbantis","Tim Pawlowski"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09860-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1876657533a522ee","title":"Should platforms be allowed to sell on their own marketplaces?","abstract":"A growing number of digital platforms operate in a dual mode: running marketplaces for third‐party products, while selling their own products on those marketplaces. We build a model to explore the implications of this controversial practice. We analyze the tradeoffs that arise from a regulatory ban on the dual mode, showing how such a ban can harm consumer surplus and welfare even when the platform would otherwise engage in product imitation and self‐preferencing. In the empirically most relevant scenarios, policies that prevent platform imitation and self‐preferencing generate better outcomes than an outright ban on the dual mode.","wordCount":97,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Andrei Hagiu","Tat‐How Teh","Julian Wright"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12408","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1877463118197010","title":"Tots and Teens: How Does Child’s Age Influence Maternal Labor Supply and Child Care Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit?","abstract":"Building on earlier work that shows that the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has a substantial positive effect on maternal labor supply, we show that labor supply effects are concentrated among mothers with children under age 3, with only moderate effects of the EITC on the labor supply of mothers with teenagers. These increases in labor supply are coupled with large increases in the use and cost of child care among mothers with children under age 3. Results highlight the importance of considering heterogeneous treatment effects of policy and have implications for child care policy and other family policy.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Katherine Michelmore","Natasha Pilkauskas"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711383","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-18811e6faf654e8a","title":"Herding in equity crowdfunding","abstract":"We build a model of equity crowdfunding that incorporates the two major funding models: all‐or‐nothing (AoN) and keep‐it‐all (KIA). Both informed and uninformed investors arrive sequentially and rationally choose whether and how much to invest. The KIA solution turns out to be a reduced version of AoN without signalling. We test predictions using data from a leading European equity crowdfunding platform and find support. Results are consistent with rational information aggregation. However, negative information cascades may still appear. The AoN crowdfunding mechanism might therefore fail to finance a nonnegligible percentage of positive NPV projects.","wordCount":94,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Thomas B. Åstebro","Manuel Fernández Sierra","Stefano Lovo","Nir Vulkan"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12474","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-1886aa44973c0cf6","title":"Does Government Spending Affect Income Poverty? A Meta-regression Analysis","abstract":"This paper presents the results of a meta-regression analysis of the relationship between government spending and income poverty, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries. Through a comprehensive search and screening process, we identify a total of 19 cross-country econometric studies containing 169 estimates of this relationship. We find that the size and direction of the estimated relationship are affected by a range of factors, most notably the composition of the sample used for estimation, the control variables included in the regression model, and the type of government spending. Overall, we find no clear evidence that higher government spending has played a significant role in reducing income poverty in low- and middle-income countries. This is consistent with the view that fiscal policy plays a much more limited redistributive role in developing countries, in comparison with OECD countries. In addition, we find that the relationship between government spending and poverty is on average less negative for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and more negative for countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, compared to other regions. We also find that the relationship is less negative for government consumption spending, in comparison with other sectors. Finally, we find some evidence indicating the possibility of publication bias.","wordCount":204,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Edward Anderson","Maria Ana Jalles d’Orey","Maren Duvendack","Lucio Esposito"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1895736b6419d731","title":"Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations","abstract":"We estimate demand, supply, monetary, investment and financial shocks in a VAR identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on US data. We find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output, stock prices and investment but have a limited effect on inflation. In a second step, we disentangle shocks originating in the housing sector, shocks originating in credit markets and uncertainty shocks. In the extended set‐up, financial shocks are even more important and a leading role is played by housing shocks that have large and persistent effects on output.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Francesco Furlanetto","Francesco Ravazzolo","Samad Sarferaz"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12520","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-18968be99ac19cf2","title":"Green transitions and the prevention of environmental disasters: Market-based vs. Command-and-control policies","abstract":"The paper compares the effects of market-based (M-B) and command-and-control (C&C) climate policies on the direction of technical change and the prevention of environmental disasters. Drawing on a model of endogenous growth and directed technical change, we show that M-B policies (carbon taxes and subsidies toward clean sectors) suffer from path dependence and exhibit bounded window of opportunities: delays in their implementation make them ineffective both in redirecting technical change, (i.e. triggering a transition toward clean energy) and in avoiding environmental catastrophes. On the contrary, we find that C&C interventions are favored by path dependence and guarantee policy effectiveness irrespectively of the timing of their introduction. As the hypothesis of path dependence in technological change has received vast empirical support and it is a key feature of many models of growth, we argue that C&C policies should be seen as a valuable and non-equivalent alternative to M-B interventions.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Francesco Lamperti","Mauro Napoletano","Andrea Roventini"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518001001","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-189b7681e7c3ba14","title":"Working from home: Too much of a good thing?","abstract":"We develop a general equilibrium model with skilled workers who can and unskilled workers who cannot work from home (WFH). Firms choose the amount of time they require workers in the office, whereas workers choose to either work on-site or hybrid, splitting working time between office and home. The endogenous work arrangements determine productivity, wages, and demand for residential and commercial real estate. We find that firms ‘outsource’ workers to their homes to save on real estate costs, and in doing so push beyond the WFH share that maximizes skilled workers’ productivity. This effect is more pronounced if land-use regulations are strict, thus showing another channel through which the latter may reduce productivity. More efficient information and telecommunication technologies allow firms to shift office expenditures toward skilled workers who invest more in home working space. In a nutshell, WFH may well be the ‘new margin of offshoring’ for firms.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Kristian Behrens","Sergey Kichko","Jacques‐François Thisse"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103990","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-189bb9d53e132603","title":"Delegated risk-taking, accountability, and outcome bias","abstract":"In a sequence of experiments, this study investigates how people evaluate others who make risky decisions on their behalf, and how such evaluations affect delegated risk-taking. A decision maker acts on behalf of a client who holds the decision maker accountable by way of a subjective evaluation after observing a risky decision’s outcome. If evaluation is biased towards the outcome, it may have dysfunctional effects with respect to delegated risk-taking in that decision makers’ risk choices are increasingly misaligned with their clients’ risk preferences. We find evidence giving support to this conjecture. Across and within three experiments, we test for the effects of different types and degrees of accountability in that we manipulate the information available to clients as well as the consequences which evaluations have for decision makers. Evaluations are biased towards outcomes in all experiments. When evaluations affect decision maker’s compensations, a stronger outcome bias in evaluations translates into risk-taking decisions being less frequently aligned with clients’ risk preferences. In the same situation, giving clients the opportunity to make peer comparisons increases outcome bias. We further find that clients do not hold decision makers accountable for their risk choices when they cannot observe the risk-taking decision, but have to infer it from observing the outcome. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Robert M. Gillenkirch","Louis Velthuis"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09414-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-18b03420d1386ee5","title":"Dynamic contracting with limited commitment and the ratchet effect","abstract":"We study dynamic contracting with adverse selection and limited commitment. A firm (the principal) and a worker (the agent) interact for potentially infinitely many periods. The worker is privately informed about his productivity and the firm can only commit to short‐term contracts. The ratchet effect is in place since the firm has the incentive to change the terms of trade and offer more demanding contracts when it learns that the worker is highly productive. As the parties become arbitrarily patient, the equilibrium outcome takes one of two forms. If the prior probability of the worker being productive is low, the firm offers a pooling contract and no information is ever revealed. In contrast, if this prior probability is high, the firm fires the unproductive worker at the beginning of the relationship.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Dino Gerardi","Lucas Maestri"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2449","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-18b68684ae55f16e","title":"Women’s well-being during a pandemic and its containment","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic brought the dual crises of disease and the containment policies designed to mitigate it. Yet, there is little evidence on the impacts of these policies on women in lower-income countries, where there may be limited social safety nets to absorb these shocks. We conduct a large phone survey and leverage India's geographically varied containment policies to estimate the association between the pandemic and containment policies and measures of women's well-being, including mental health and food security. On aggregate, the pandemic resulted in dramatic income losses, increases in food insecurity, and declines in female mental health. While potentially crucial to stem the spread of COVID-19, the greater prevalence of containment policies is associated with increased food insecurity, particularly for women, and reduced female mental health. For surveyed women, moving from zero to average containment levels is associated with a 38% increase in the likelihood of reporting more depression, a 73% increase in reporting more exhaustion, and a 44% increase in reporting more anxiety. Women whose social position may make them more vulnerable - those with daughters and those living in female-headed households - experience even larger declines in mental health.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Natalie Bau","Gaurav Khanna","Corinne Low","Manisha Shah","Sreyashi Sharmin","Alessandra Voena"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102839","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-18c0bfcfbf7a6672","title":"Testing constant absolute and relative ambiguity aversion","abstract":"Recent applications have demonstrated the crucial role of decreasing absolute ambiguity aversion in financial and saving decisions. Yet, most ambiguity models predict that ambiguity aversion remains constant when individuals become better off overall. We propose the first tests of constant absolute and relative ambiguity aversion, using simple variations of the Ellsberg paradoxes. Our tests are axiomatically founded and grounded in the theoretical literature. We implemented these tests in an experiment. Our results call for the use of ambiguity models that can accommodate decreasing aversion toward ambiguity.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Lætitia Placido"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2019.02.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-18d5eadaeb50aced","title":"The ACA Medicaid Expansion in Michigan and Financial Health","abstract":"This article examines how the financial health changes following an individual's enrollment in Michigan's Medicaid program (Healthy Michigan Program, HMP). We use unique data that link credit reports of HMP enrollees to Medicaid administrative data on enrollment and use of healthcare services. We find that Medicaid enrollment is associated with large improvements in several measures of financial health, including reductions in unpaid bills, medical bills, over limit credit card spending, and public records (such as evictions, judgments, and bankruptcies). These improvements are apparent across several subgroups, although individuals with greater medical need, such as those with chronic illnesses, experience the largest benefits.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Sarah Miller","Luojia Hu","Robert Kaestner","Bhashkar Mazumder","Ashley Wong"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22266","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-18daa9815b345cf0","title":"High levels of air pollution reduce team performance","abstract":"Teams play a key role in tackling complex societal challenges, such as developing vaccines or novel clean energy technologies. Yet, the effect of air pollution on team performance in non-routine problem-solving tasks is not well explored. Here, we document a sizable adverse effect of air pollution on team performance using data from 15,000 live escape games in London, United Kingdom. On high-pollution days, teams take on average 5% more time to solve a sequence of non-routine analytical tasks, which require collaborative skills analogous to those needed in the modern workplace. Negative effects are non-linear and only occur at high levels of air pollution, which are however commonplace in many developing countries. As team efforts predominantly drive innovation, high levels of air pollution may significantly hamper economic development.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Paul Lohmann","Benedict Probst","Elisabeth Gsottbauer","Andreas Kontoleon"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102705","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-18de92c85d02eb15","title":"Cash Holdings and Labor Heterogeneity: The Role of Skilled Labor","abstract":"Firms differ in their dependence on skilled labor and face labor adjustment costs that increase with their workers’ skill level. We show that firms with a higher share of skilled workers, and thus less flexibility to adjust their labor demand in response to cash flow shocks, hold more precautionary cash. The effect of labor skills on cash holdings is more pronounced for financially constrained firms and varies with exogenous differences in firing and hiring costs. We address endogeneity concerns by using subsamples of firms with reasonably similar characteristics, propensity score matching, and a quasi-experimental shock to labor markets.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Mohamed Ghaly","Viet Anh Dang","Konstantinos Stathopoulos"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx045","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-18ed850119a7f69d","title":"The transitive core: Inference of welfare from nontransitive preference relations","abstract":"In this paper, we study methods of inferring a decision maker's true preference relation when observed choice data reveal a nontransitive preference relation due to choice mistakes. We propose some sensible properties of such methods and show that these properties characterize a unique rule of inference, called the transitive core. This rule is applied to a variety of nontransitive preference models, such as semiorders on the commodity space, relative discounting time preferences, justifiable preferences over ambiguous acts, regret preferences over risky prospects, and collective preferences induced by majority voting. We show that the transitive core offers a nontrivial and reasonable inference of the decision maker's true preference relation in these contexts.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Hiroki Nishimura"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1769","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-18fd73a99a39ecfd","title":"The Wall Street stampede: Exit as governance with interacting blockholders","abstract":"The growth of the asset management industry has made it commonplace for firms to have multiple institutional blockholders. In such firms, the strength of governance via exit depends on how blockholders react to each other’s exit. We present a model to show that open-ended institutional investors such as mutual funds react strongly to an informed blockholder’s exit, leading to correlated exits that enhance corporate governance. Our analysis points to a new role for mutual funds in corporate governance. We examine the trades of mutual funds around exits by activist hedge funds to present empirical evidence consistent with our model.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Dragana Cvijanović","Amil Dasgupta","Konstantinos E. Zachariadis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.02.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1918fd99398c2650","title":"Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects","abstract":"We present a new multi‐sector growth model that features nonhomothetic, constant elasticity of substitution preferences, and accommodates long‐run demand and supply drivers of structural change for an arbitrary number of sectors. The model is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump‐shaped evolution of manufacturing, and the rise of services over time. We estimate the demand system derived from the model using household‐level data from the United States and India, as well as historical aggregate‐level panel data for 39 countries during the postwar period. The estimated model parsimoniously accounts for the broad patterns of sectoral reallocation observed among rich, miracle, and developing economies. Our estimates support the presence of strong nonhomotheticity across time, income levels, and countries. We find that income effects account for the bulk of the within‐country evolution of sectoral reallocation.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Diego Comín","Danial Lashkari","Martí Mestieri"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16317","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-19318de120635fc9","title":"Subways and Road Congestion","abstract":"We study whether subways alleviate road congestion by examining 45 subway line launches in China and by using detailed data on road speed. Our difference-in-differences estimation finds that in the first year after a subway line is launched, rush hour speed on nearby roads increases by about 4 percent. The effect is most prominent in initially congested roads and declines over distance to the new subway line. Evidence on road speed is corroborated with substitution patterns among modes of transportation. Using auxiliary data from Beijing, we calculate that the time savings for each automobile or bus commute from faster speed is worth US$0.10.","wordCount":103,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Yizhen Gu","Chang Q. Jiang","Junfu Zhang","Ben Zou"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-194050cad54f80e1","title":"Subsidies for technology adoption: Experimental evidence from rural Cameroon","abstract":"We use a two-stage experiment to study how a short-term subsidy for a new product affects uptake, usage, and future demand for the same product (a new solar lamp). We use an auction design to gauge willingness-to-pay, and randomly vary the strike price across villages to create random variation in purchase prices and uptake across villages. Our main results are that subsidies do not adversely affect subsequent product use, but stimulate uptake. If subsidies depress future willingness-to-pay, then this effect is outweighed by additional learning about the benefits of the new product. The net effect is that short-term subsidies increase future willingness-to-pay. However; prices play an important allocative role, and lowering prices via subsidies encourages uptake by households with low use intensity. We do not find any evidence supporting social learning and anchoring beyond the initial sample of beneficiaries.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Niccolò F. Meriggi","Erwin Bulte","Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102710","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1945ee64c2a7b665","title":"Learning and the size of the government spending multiplier","abstract":"This paper examines the government spending multiplier when economic agents combine adaptive learning and knowledge about future fiscal policy to form their expectations. The analysis shows that the effects of a government spending shock substantially change when the rational expectations hypothesis is replaced by this learning mechanism. In contrast to the dynamics under rational expectations, a government spending shock in a small-scale new Keynesian DSGE model with learning crowds in private consumption and is associated with a positive comovement between real wages and hours worked. In the baseline calibration, the output multiplier under learning is above one and about twice as large as under rational expectations.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Ewoud Quaghebeur"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000019","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-1946b90b466297a0","title":"Mortgage prepayment, race, and monetary policy","abstract":"Black and Hispanic homeowners pay significantly higher mortgage interest rates than white and Asian homeowners. We show that the main reason is that white and Asian borrowers are much more likely to exploit periods of falling interest rates by refinancing their mortgages or moving. Black and Hispanic borrowers face challenges refinancing because, on average, they have lower credit scores, equity and income. But even holding those factors constant, Black and Hispanic borrowers refinance less, suggesting that other factors are at play. Because they are more likely to exploit lower interest rates, white borrowers benefit more from monetary expansions. Policies that reduce barriers to refinancing for minority borrowers and alternative mortgage contract designs can reduce racial mortgage pricing inequality.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Kristopher Gerardi","Paul Willen","David Hao Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-194fb1a584da47f2","title":"Virtually No Effect? Different Uses of Classroom Computers and their Effect on Student Achievement","abstract":"Most studies find little to no effect of classroom computers on student achievement. We suggest that this null effect may combine positive effects of computer uses without equivalently effective alternative traditional teaching practices and negative effects of uses that substitute more effective teaching practices. Our correlated random effects models exploit within‐student between‐subject variation in different computer uses in the international TIMSS test. We find positive effects of using computers to look up information and negative effects of using computers to practice skills, resulting in overall null effects. Effects are larger for students with high socioeconomic status and mostly confined to developed countries.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Oliver Falck","Constantin Mang","Ludger Woessmann"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12192","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1957653e8a4830bc","title":"Child care, parental labor supply and tax revenue","abstract":"We study the impact of child care for toddlers on the labor supply of mothers and fathers in Norway. For identification, we exploit the staggered expansion across municipalities following a large child care reform from 2002. Our IV-estimates indicate that child care causes an increase in the labor supply of cohabiting mothers who move towards full time employment. Despite this, average taxes paid on the extra income is low, lending little support to the argument that parts of the cost of child care is offset by increased taxes. Meanwhile, we find no impact for fathers.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Martin Eckhoff Andresen","Tarjei Havnes"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2019.101762","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-195d1ed09b6ef55f","title":"Social norms and elections: How elected rules can make behavior (in)appropriate","abstract":"Can elections change people’s ideas about what is ethically right and what is wrong? A number of recent observations suggest that social norms can change rapidly as a result of election outcomes. We explore this conjecture using a controlled online experiment. In our experiment, participants rate the social appropriateness of sharing income with poorer individuals. We compare the ratings for situations in which a rule has been elected that asks people to share with ratings when the elected rule asks people not to share. We also compare both situations with ratings in a decision environment in which there is no official rule at all. In the absence of an elected rule, sharing is widely considered socially appropriate, while not sharing is considered socially inappropriate. We show that elections can change this social norm: They shift the modal appropriateness perception of actions and, depending on the elected rule, increase their dispersion, i.e. erode previously existing consensus. As a result, actions previously judged socially inappropriate (not sharing) can become socially appropriate. This power prevails, albeit in a weakened form, even if the election process is flawed (introducing a voting fee or “poll tax”, bribing voters, disenfranchising poorer voters). An additional treatment suggests that both the social information contained in election results and the social appropriateness of following rules per se play a role in shifting social norms.","wordCount":225,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Arno Apffelstaedt","Jana Freundt","Christoph Oslislo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.031","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-195ff08567efe5b2","title":"Experiments in high-frequency trading: comparing two market institutions","abstract":"We implement a laboratory financial market where traders can access costly technology that reduces communication latency with a remote exchange. In this environment, we conduct a market design study on high-frequency trading: we contrast the performance of the newly proposed frequent batch auction (FBA) against the continuous double auction (CDA), which organizes trades in most exchanges worldwide. Our evidence suggests that, relative to the CDA, the FBA exhibits (1) less predatory trading behavior, (2) lower investments in low-latency communication technology, (3) lower transaction costs, and (4) lower volatility in market spreads and liquidity. We also find that transitory shocks in the environment have substantially greater impact on market dynamics in the CDA than in the FBA.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Eric M. Aldrich","Kristian López Vargas"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09605-2","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-196d8375986af9bb","title":"Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure","abstract":"We develop a method that identifies the attention paid by earnings call participants to firms' climate change exposures. The method adapts a machine learning keyword discovery algorithm and captures exposures related to opportunity, physical, and regulatory shocks associated with climate change. The measures are available for more than 10,000 firms from 34 countries between 2002 and 2020. We show that the measures are useful in predicting important real outcomes related to the net‐zero transition, in particular, job creation in disruptive green technologies and green patenting, and that they contain information that is priced in options and equity markets.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Zacharias Sautner","Laurence van Lent","Grigory Vilkov","RUISHEN ZHANG"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://hdl.handle.net/10419/288045","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-197add2189e801a8","title":"The Geography of Development","abstract":"We develop a dynamic spatial growth theory with realistic geography. We characterize the model and its balanced-growth path and propose a methodology to analyze equilibria with different levels of migration frictions. Different migration scenarios change local market size, innovation incentives, and the evolution of technology. We bring the model to the data for the whole world economy at a 1° × 1° geographic resolution. We then use the model to quantify the gains from relaxing migration restrictions. Our results indicate that fully liberalizing migration would increase welfare about threefold and would significantly affect the evolution of particular regions of the world.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Klaus Desmet","Dávid Krisztián Nagy","Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/697084","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-19a11c03f69f480d","title":"European Trade, Colonialism, and Human Capital Accumulation in Senegal, Gambia and Western Mali, 1770–1900","abstract":"We trace the development of human capital in today's Senegal, Gambia, and Western Mali between 1770 and 1900. European trade, slavery, and early colonialism were linked to human capital formation, but this connection appears to have been heterogeneous. The contact with the Atlantic slave trade increased regional divergence, as the coast of Senegambia developed more quickly than inner areas. This pattern was affected by French early colonialism and by the reaction of different West African populations to the economic incentives provided by foreign demand for agricultural products. The peanut trade since the mid-nineteenth century further amplified regional economic inequalities.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Gabriele Cappelli","Jöerg Baten"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000699","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-19a628120b3e826e","title":"Global Inequality: Relatively Lower, Absolutely Higher","abstract":"This paper measures trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975–2010 using data from the most recent version of the World Income Inequality Database (WIID). The picture that emerges using ‘absolute,’ and even ‘centrist’ measures of inequality, is very different from the results obtained using standard ‘relative’ inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient or Coefficient of Variation. Relative global inequality has declined substantially over the decades. In contrast, ‘absolute’ inequality, as captured by the Standard Deviation and Absolute Gini, has increased considerably and unabated. Like these ‘absolute’ measures, our ‘centrist’ inequality indicators, the Krtscha measure and an intermediate Gini, also register a pronounced increase in global inequality, albeit, in the case of the latter, with a decline during 2005 to 2010. A critical question posed by our findings is whether increased levels of inequality according to absolute and centrist measures are inevitable at today's per capita income levels. Our analysis suggests that it is not possible for absolute inequality to return to 1975 levels without further convergence in mean incomes among countries. Inequality, as captured by centrist measures such as the Krtscha, could return to 1975 levels, at today's domestic and global per capita income levels, but this would require quite dramatic structural reforms to reduce domestic inequality levels in most countries.","wordCount":212,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa","Laurence Roope","Finn Tarp"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12240","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-19b0ef2b266d8d16","title":"Measuring the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicle subsidies","abstract":"Despite the prevalence of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) subsidies, research on improving their cost-effectiveness and impact remains limited. To assess the scope for improving their cost-effectiveness, we develop a vehicle choice model-based counterfactual simulation using a large-scale nationally representative sample of U.S. new car buyers. Results suggest that existing federal incentives are expensive, $36k per additional PEV, as every buyer gets the subsidy. The cost-effectiveness can be improved by twofold by targeting incentives by income, vehicle disposal, geography, and/or vehicle miles traveled. Preserving the federal policy's assignment of larger subsidies for PEVs with larger battery capacities results in greater battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption, while policies not discriminating by battery capacity result in greater plug-in hybrid electric vehicle adoption. The reduction in gasoline consumption is the same in both the cases, with a slightly lower marginal cost for the latter.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Tamara L. Sheldon","Rubal Dua"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104545","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-19b5f1e431f596eb","title":"Stability and strategy-proofness for matching with constraints: A necessary and sufficient condition","abstract":"Distributional constraints are common features in many real matching markets, such as medical residency matching, school admissions, and teacher assignment. We develop a general theory of matching mechanisms under distributional constraints. We identify the necessary and sufficient condition on the constraint structure for the existence of a mechanism that is stable and strategy-proof for the individuals. Our proof exploits a connection between a matching problem under distributional constraints and a matching problem with contracts.","wordCount":74,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Yuichiro Kamada","Fuhito Kojima"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2717","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-19be1c7a73397e9a","title":"Taxing Top Earners: a Human Capital Perspective","abstract":"An established view is that the revenue maximising top tax rate for the US is approximately 73%. In contrast, the revenue maximising top tax rate is approximately 49% in our quantitative human capital model. The key reason for the lower top tax rate is the presence of two new forces not captured by the model underlying the established view. These new forces are strengthened by the endogenous response of top earners’ human capital to a change in the top tax rate.","wordCount":81,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Alejandro Badel","Mark Huggett","Wenlan Luo"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa021","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-19c1c8be28d44c0f","title":"Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation, and Growth","abstract":"We propose a new measure of the economic importance of each innovation. Our measure uses newly collected data on patents issued to U.S. firms in the 1926 to 2010 period, combined with the stock market response to news about patents. Our patent-level estimates of private economic value are positively related to the scientific value of these patents, as measured by the number of citations the patent receives in the future. Our new measure is associated with substantial growth, reallocation, and creative destruction, consistent with the predictions of Schumpeterian growth models. Aggregating our measure suggests that technological innovation accounts for significant medium-run fluctuations in aggregate economic growth and TFP. Our measure contains additional information relative to citation-weighted patent counts; the relation between our measure and firm growth is considerably stronger. Importantly, the degree of creative destruction that is associated with our measure is higher than previous estimates, confirming that it is a useful proxy for the private valuation of patents.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Leonid Kogan","Dimitris Papanikolaou","Amit Seru","Noah Stoffman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw040","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-19c22f3857563250","title":"Corporate Governance and Pollution Externalities of Public and Private Firms","abstract":"The number of U.S. publicly traded firms has halved in 20 years. How will this shift in ownership structure affect the economy’s externalities? Using comprehensive data on greenhouse gas emissions from 2007 to 2016, we find that independent private firms are less likely to pollute and incur EPA penalties than are public firms, and we find no differences between private sponsor-backed firms and public firms, controlling for industry, time, location, and a host of firm characteristics. Within public firms, we find a negative association between emissions and mutual fund ownership and board size, suggesting that increased oversight may decrease externalities.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Sophie Shive","Margaret Forster"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-19d744ed7fbb5a0a","title":"Morally questionable decisions by groups: Guilt sharing and its underlying motives","abstract":"We conduct a theory-guided experiment where subjects are matched in groups of three and vote on a morally questionable decision. We find that the frequency of votes for this decision increases with the number of votes required for it (threshold effect). This effect persists even when only considering pivotal voters, who cannot rely on sufficiently many votes for the decision by other group members (thereby reaping a benefit without own moral costs). Our design allows us to attribute the threshold effect to guilt sharing. A series of novel treatments then identifies shared responsibility and a preference for group consensus as independent motives contributing to guilt sharing.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Eberhard Feess","Florian Kerzenmacher","Gerd Muehlheusser"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.04.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-19d886aafc688293","title":"Network and panel quantile effects via distribution regression","abstract":"This paper provides a method to construct simultaneous confidence bands for quantile functions and quantile effects in nonlinear network and panel models with unobserved two-way effects, strictly exogenous covariates, and possibly discrete outcome variables. The method is based upon projection of simultaneous confidence bands for distribution functions constructed from fixed effects distribution regression estimators. These fixed effects estimators are debiased to deal with the incidental parameter problem. Under asymptotic sequences where both dimensions of the data set grow at the same rate, the confidence bands for the quantile functions and effects have correct joint coverage in large samples. An empirical application to gravity models of trade illustrates the applicability of the methods to network data.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Victor Chernozhukov","Iván Fernández‐Val","Martin Weidner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","C","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-19e6ec129f16bb22","title":"Long-Run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net","abstract":"We examine the impact of a positive and policy-driven change in economic resources available in utero and during childhood. We focus on the introduction of the Food Stamp Program, which was rolled out across counties between 1961 and 1975. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to assemble unique data linking family background and county of residence in early childhood to adult health and economic outcomes. Our findings indicate access to food stamps in childhood leads to a significant reduction in the incidence of metabolic syndrome and, for women, an increase in economic self-sufficiency.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Hilary Hoynes","Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach","Douglas Almond"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130375","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-19eb66dd94bfff23","title":"Racial Discrimination in Local Public Services: A Field Experiment in the United States","abstract":"We examine whether racial discrimination exists in access to public services in the U.S.. We carry out an email correspondence study in which we pose simple queries to more than 19,000 local public service providers. We find that emails from putatively black senders are almost 4 percentage points less likely to receive an answer compared to emails signed with a white-sounding name. Moreover, responses to queries coming from black names are less likely to have a cordial tone. Further tests suggest that the differential in the likelihood of answering is due to animus towards blacks rather than inferring socioeconomic status from race. Finally, we show that attitudes towards the government among blacks are more negative in states with higher discrimination.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Corrado Giulietti","Mirco Tonin","Michael Vlassopoulos"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-19eba9284a5faeae","title":"Consumer Bankruptcy and Financial Health","abstract":"This paper estimates the effect of Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on financial health using a new data set linking bankruptcy filings to credit bureau records. Our empirical strategy uses the leniency of randomly assigned judges as an instrument for Chapter 13 protection. We find that Chapter 13 protection decreases an index measuring adverse financial events such as civil judgments and repossessions by 0.323 standard deviations and increases the probability of being a homeowner by 13.2 percentage points. Chapter 13 protection has little impact on open unsecured debt but decreases the amount of debt in collections by $1,333.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Will Dobbie","Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham","Crystal Yang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:17747469","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-19f6b3a189f8a2c8","title":"Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy","abstract":"We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy. Our simulations show that the magnitude of the government spending and labour tax cut multipliers, whether monetary policy is active or passive, is comparable to what is found in the literature. A novel finding from our simulations is that the industry structure is substantially affected by an expansionary fiscal policy, as value added in the non-traded goods sector increases at the expense of value added in the traded goods sector. Moreover, expansionary fiscal policy reduces the mark-ups in the traded goods sector, while the mark-ups are roughly unchanged in the non-traded goods sector. The contraction of activity in the traded goods sector increases when monetary tightening accompanies the fiscal stimulus. Hence, we find that such a policy mix is likely to produce significant de-industrialization in a small open economy with inflation targeting.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Pål Boug","Thomas von Brasch","Ådne Cappelen","Roger Hammersland","Håvard Hungnes","Dag Kolsrud","Julia Skretting","Birger Strøm","Trond Christian Vigtel"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103524","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-19f9dfee08ce2de4","title":"The European Framework for Regulating Telecommunications: A 25-year Appraisal","abstract":"The European telecommunications sector has been radically transformed in the past 25 years: from a group of state monopolies to a set of increasingly competitive markets. In this paper we summarize how this process has unfolded—for both fixed and mobile telecommunications—by focusing on the evolution of the regulatory framework and by drawing some parallels with the evolution of the sector in the US. Given the major strategic importance of the sector, we highlight some of the challenges that lie ahead.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Martín Cave","Christos Genakos","Tommaso Valletti"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09686-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-19fba6c8a40c73c9","title":"Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model","abstract":"This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of Italy withdrawing from the euro area by means of stochastic simulations of a macroeconometric model. The model considers the effect of devaluation on output, sovereign debt valuation, and the development of bilateral economic relations between Italy and its major trade partners. The simulation results are consistent with the findings of recent applied research: the Italian economy would follow the V-shaped pattern observed in most currency crises. After an initial period of stress, and provided an appropriate set of countercyclical policy measures is implemented, real GDP would recover and resume growth at a reasonable pace. In particular, while the expected positive impact of nominal exchange rate realignment on external balance would be transitory, higher nominal growth would bring about a persistent reduction in unemployment and the public debt-to-GDP ratio. These results are robust to a set of sensitivity checks, considering a number of adverse circumstances such as exchange rate overshooting, financial panic, supply-side constraints, and the application of retaliatory tariffs.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Alberto Bagnai","Brigitte Granville","Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/23094","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1a10c80a4d2956c2","title":"The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Household Finances","abstract":"Using a simulated instrument strategy, we analyze how expansions to the federal and state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC) affected household finances over the past two decades. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation wealth topical modules, we also test whether responses differ over time, as well as whether there are different responses to the federal and state expansions, and how responses vary by educational attainment. A $1,000 policy‐induced increase in the average household EITC leads to a 3 percentage point increase in the likelihood of holding money in a savings or checking account, and approximately $700 more held in savings balances. These results are coupled with large increases in pre‐tax family earnings. We also find some evidence of decreases in unsecured debt holdings. We interpret these results as further evidence that the EITC increases the financial stability of low‐income single mothers.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Lauren Jones","Katherine Michelmore"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22062","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1a1333c62f257b29","title":"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago","abstract":"A growing literature documents that air pollution adversely impacts health, productivity, and cognition. This paper provides the first evidence of a causal link between air pollution and aggressive behavior, as documented by violent crime. Using the geolocation of crimes in Chicago from 2001–2012, we compare crime upwind and downwind of major highways on days when wind blows orthogonally to the road. Consistent with research linking pollution to aggression, we find that air pollution increases violent crime on the downwind sides of interstates. Our results suggest that pollution may reduce welfare and affect behavior through a wider set of channels than previously considered.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Evan Herrnstadt","Anthony Heyes","Erich Muehlegger","Soodeh Saberian"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190091","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1a140a3f995533fa","title":"The effect of professional social norms on corporate environmental compliance","abstract":"While previous studies demonstrate the importance of social norms for explaining the pro-environmental behavior of individual consumers, very few studies examine the role of social norms in the context of businesses’ pro-environmental decisions. This study contributes to the rich social norm literature by exploring whether professional social norms influence the compliance decisions of regulated chemical manufacturing facilities. To this end, the empirical analysis uses data on major facilities regulated under the U.S. Clean Water Act to estimate the link from the compliance history of other major chemical manufacturing facilities operating in the same state to an individual facility’s current compliance decision. Using a fixed-effects model that includes a large set of confounding factors, we find a significant positive effect of other facilities’ compliance history: improvement in the average compliance history prompts the individual facility to increase its own performance. By controlling for other plausible channels that link facility’s compliance decisions, we interpret this relationship as reflecting descriptive professional norms. The relationship proves stronger for facilities that are either geographically or sectorally closer.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Dietrich Earnhart","Lana Friesen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101460","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1a17b8f48f893d34","title":"Financial regulation and endogenous macroeconomic crises","abstract":"We explore the effects of banking regulation on financial stability and macroeconomic dynamics in an agent-based computational model. In particular, we study the minimum level of capital and the lending concentration towards a single counterpart. We show that an overly tight regulation is dangerous because it reduces credit availability. By contrast, overly loose constraints, associated with a high payout ratio, increase financial fragility that, in turn, damage the real economy. Simulation results support the introduction of regulatory rules aimed at assuring an adequate capitalization of banks, such as the Capital Conservation Buffer (Basel III reform).","wordCount":95,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Luca Riccetti","Alberto Russo","Mauro Gallegati"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000444","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1a1d8527e86aaf47","title":"Course grades as a signal of student achievement: Evidence of grade inflation before and after COVID‐19","abstract":"There is widespread speculation and some evidence that grades and grading standards changed during the pandemic, making higher grades relatively easier to achieve. In this paper we use longitudinal data from students in Washington State to investigate middle and high school grades in math, science, and English pre‐ and post‐pandemic. Our descriptive analysis of the data reveals that—in accordance with state guidance—almost no students received an F in the spring of 2020, and the share of students receiving A's jumped dramatically. While English and science grades returned to pre‐pandemic levels in the years following the 2019/2020 school year, grades in math did not. To understand how well grades reflect objective measures of learning we regress test scores on student grades separately by subject and year and find that the strength of the relationship between grades and test scores has diminished over time in math. The diminishment of the signal value of grades may be a concern given that schools and families use grades as a signal of when students are ready to progress and when they might need more help.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Dan Goldhaber","M. Young"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22618","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1a20131e5b5727af","title":"Of Mice and Academics: Examining the Effect of Openness on Innovation","abstract":"This paper argues that openness, by lowering costs to access existing research, can enhance both early and late stage innovation through greater exploration of novel research directions. We examine a natural experiment in openness: late-1990s NIH agreements that reduced academics’ access costs regarding certain genetically engineered mice. Implementing difference-in-differences estimators, we find that increased openness encourages entry by new researchers and exploration of more diverse research paths, and does not reduce the creation of new genetically engineered mice. Our findings highlight a neglected cost of strong intellectual property restrictions: lower levels of exploration leading to reduced diversity of research output.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Fiona Murray","Philippe Aghion","Mathias Dewatripont","Julian Kolev","Scott Stern"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140062","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-1a2396adbe853caa","title":"Transportation and housing markets in cities","abstract":"This paper surveys recent literature estimating the causal effects of urban transport investments and urban mobility policies on housing markets. We synthesise evidence along three dimensions: the capitalisation of accessibility gains, the internalisation of transport-related externalities, and the rise of green mobility initiatives. Results indicate that while improved accessibility is generally capitalised into higher property values, negative externalities—such as noise, pollution, and congestion—can attenuate or reverse these effects. Policies such as congestion pricing, zoning reforms, and low-emission zones also influence these outcomes, highlighting how institutions, network design, and local environmental conditions shape the housing market’s response to transport investments. Recent green interventions in city centres have shown an even stronger impact on housing prices, although they can also create spillover effects in nearby neighbourhoods.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López","Rosa Sanchis-Guarner","Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2026.104224","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1a3e92891c6ec0f1","title":"Parenting values and the intergenerational transmission of time preferences","abstract":"We study how parents transmit patience to their children with a focus on two theoretically important channels of socialization: parenting values and parental involvement. Using high-quality administrative and survey data, and a setting without reverse causality concerns, we document a substantial intergenerational transmission of patience. We show that parenting values represent a key channel of the transmission. Authoritative parents (high in control and warmth) do not transmit patience to their children, in contrast to authoritarian and permissive parents. Thus, the authoritative parenting style seems to counteract the transmission of impatience. While parental involvement does not appear to be a relevant channel at the aggregate level, we document important heterogeneity by parent gender.","wordCount":112,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Anne Brenøe","Thomas Epper"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Z","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104208","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1a47ccec4b9d8fee","title":"Blended identification in structural VARs","abstract":"The proposed blended approach combines identification via heteroskedasticity with sign/narrative restrictions, and instrumental variables. Since heteroskedasticity can point identify shocks, its use results in a sharp reduction of the potentially large identified sets stemming from other approaches. Conversely, sign/narrative restrictions or instrumental variables offer natural solutions to the labeling problem and can help when conditions for point identification through heteroskedasticity are not met. Blending these methods together resolves their respective key issues and leverages their advantages. We illustrate the benefits of the approach in Monte Carlo experiments, and apply it to several examples taken from the literature.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Andrea Carriero","Massimiliano Marcellino","Tommaso Tornese"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103581","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1a67448702683e43","title":"Tail risks and private equity performance","abstract":"We examine the drivers of private equity in response to the fully exogenous Covid-19 shock, employing listed private equity as a proxy for traditional non-listed private equity. This approach enables us to reliably measure firm characteristics and performance in real-time. Listed private equity firms, on average, underperformed significantly during the crisis, with a performance drop ranging from 9.2% to 43.6%, depending on the model used. However, there is substantial cross-sectional variation driven by unique firm-level attributes including access to capital, liquidity, transparency, and ownership structure. Listed private equity with better access to capital and higher transparency shows resilience during the crisis, while higher illiquidity and opacity exacerbate the negative effects. This study offers early evidence on Covid-19′s impact on private equity firms, highlighting value drivers and performance dynamics of this alternative asset class during a period of extreme tail risk.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Hrvoje Kurtović","Garen Markarian"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101457","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1a6782daf99a7ea4","title":"The local economic impacts of regeneration projects: Evidence from UK's single regeneration budget","abstract":"Many governments aim to improve the labour market outcomes of people living in deprived areas through \"place-making\" initiatives. Economists are often sceptical about the effectiveness of such policies, but empirical evidence on their impacts remains limited. We examine the impact of building subsidised business floor space in deprived neighbourhoods in the UK. Our estimates suggest that while the £8.2bn investment into these projects increased the number of jobs located in the targeted neighbourhoods, it did little to improve the employment of local residents.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Stephen Gibbons","Henry G. Overman","Matti Sarvimäki"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103315","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1a6edad759dfe75a","title":"Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk","abstract":"We show that maturity transformation does not expose banks to interest rate risk—it hedges it. The reason is the deposit franchise, which allows banks to pay deposit rates that are low and insensitive to market interest rates. Hedging the deposit franchise requires banks to earn income that is also insensitive, that is, to lend long term at fixed rates. As predicted by this theory, we show that banks closely match the interest rate sensitivities of their interest income and expense, and that this insulates their equity from interest rate shocks. Our results explain why banks supply long‐term credit.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Itamar Drechsler","Alexi Savov","Philipp Schnabl"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1a796c7c6e7425e1","title":"“Moving Umbrella”: Bureaucratic transfers and the comovement of interregional investments in China","abstract":"This paper studies the pattern of interregional investment after bureaucratic transfers across Chinese cities. Using the administrative records of business registration, we find that the transfer of a local leader between prefecture cities is associated with about 3% increase in interregional investment along the direction of transfer. The comoving firms purchase larger parcels of land and at lower prices. They also exhibit a higher likelihood of exiting when the patrons leave the office. Comoving interregional investment does not increase the probability of promotion for transferred leaders, and yet expose them to a higher risk of anticorruption prosecution. The findings highlight the importance of personal connection between firms and bureaucrats in shaping the pattern of interregional investment.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Xiangyu Shi","Tianyang Xi","Xiaobo Zhang","Yifan Zhang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102717","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1aa5be76c19eedfc","title":"A unifying approach to incentive compatibility in moral hazard problems","abstract":"A new approach to moral hazard is presented. Once local incentive compatibility is satisfied, the problem of verifying global incentive compatibility is shown to be isomorphic to the problem of comparing two classes of distribution functions. Thus, tools from choice under uncertainty can be brought to bear on the problem. The approach allows classic justifications of the first-order approach (FOA) to be proven using the same unifying methodology. However, the approach is especially useful for analyzing higher-dimensional moral hazard problems. New and more tractable multi-signal justifications of the FOA are derived and implications for optimal monitoring are examined. The approach yields justifications of the FOA in certain settings where the action is multidimensional, as in the case when the agent is multitasking. Finally, a tractable multitasking model with richer predictions than the popular but simple linear-exponential-normal model is presented.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["René Kirkegaard"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2008","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-1aa7f5925717b9a4","title":"Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). To address these issues, we propose BVAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data than standard BVARs. Predictive Bayes factors indicate that our outlier-augmented SV model provides the best fit for the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier-augmented SV schemes fare at least as well as a conventional SV model.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Andrea Carriero","Todd E. Clark","Massimiliano Marcellino","Elmar Mertens"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01213","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-1afd5391be6229b2","title":"Foundations of pseudomarkets: Walrasian equilibria for discrete resources","abstract":"We study the assignment of discrete resources in a general model encompassing a wide range of applied environments, such as school choice, course allocation, and refugee resettlement. We allow single-unit and general multi-unit demands and any linear constraints. We prove the Second Welfare Theorem for these environments and a strong version of the First Welfare Theorem. In this way, we establish an equivalence between strong efficiency and decentralization through prices in discrete environments. Showing that all strongly efficient outcomes can be implemented through pseudomarkets, we provide a foundation for using pseudomarkets in market design.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Antonio Miralles","Marek Pycia"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105303","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1afd5800a7c3862a","title":"Enfranchising non-citizens: What drives natives’ willingness to share power?","abstract":"Universal suffrage is a core element of democracy. However, in many democratic countries, a large part of the inhabitants are foreigners without suffrage. We analyze the conditions under which domestic citizens are willing to extend suffrage to non-citizen residents. This paper explores a new panel dataset (1992–2016) of Swiss referenda on the enfranchisement of non-citizens. We concentrate on the size and composition of the foreign population and the institutional context as determinants of non-citizens’ enfranchisement. Our estimates show that a higher share of foreigners corresponds to a lower willingness of natives to enfranchise non-citizens. This effect seems to be driven by the cost of enfranchising non-citizens, which increases in the cultural distance between the foreign and native population and the strength of direct democracy.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Anna Maria Koukal","Patricia Schafer","Reiner Eichenberger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.03.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1b12292db7548987","title":"Metropolitan areas in the world. Delineation and population trends","abstract":"This paper presents a novel method to delineate metropolitan areas – or functional urban areas (FUAs) – in the entire world and assesses their population trends. According to the definition developed by the OECD and the European Union, FUAs are composed of high-density urban centres with at least 50 thousand people plus their surrounding commuting zones. The latter represent the urban centres’ areas of influence in terms of labour market flows. The proposed method combines a functional and a morphological approach to overcome the dependency on travel-to-work data to define commuting zones and allow a global delineation. It relies on a probabilistic approach and the use of population and travel impedance gridded data across the globe. Results show that around 3.9 billion people, making up 53% of the world population, live in 8,790 FUAs, out of which 17% live in their commuting zones. Between 2000 and 2015, population growth was higher in larger FUAs, highlighting a general trend toward higher concentration of the metropolitan population. Commuting zones grew faster than urban centres, though with heterogeneous patterns across world regions, income levels and metropolitan size.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Ana I. Moreno-Monroy","Marcello Schiavina","Paolo Veneri"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103242","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1b1798c36f3b0e6e","title":"Investment in concealable information by biased experts","abstract":"We study a persuasion game in which biased—possibly opposed—experts strategically acquire costly information that they can then conceal or reveal. We show that information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes when experts have linear preferences over a decision maker's beliefs. The logic turns on how each expert expects the decision maker's posterior to be affected by the presence of other experts should he not acquire information that would turn out to be favorable. The decision maker may prefer to solicit advice from just one biased expert even when others—including those biased in the opposite direction (singular)—are available.","wordCount":96,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Navin Kartik","Frances Xu Lee","Wing Suen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12166","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1b39a16c5db9edf4","title":"Should environmental R&D be prioritized?","abstract":"An innovator may not be able to capture the full social benefit of her innovation and, therefore, governments support private R&D through various measures. We compare a market good innovation—to develop a more efficient technology to produce a standard market good—with an environmental innovation—to develop a more efficient abatement technology—that has the same potential to increase the social surplus. In the first-best outcome, which can be achieved by offering an R&D subsidy and a diffusion subsidy, the R&D subsidy should be greatest for an environmental innovation, whereas the diffusion subsidy should be greatest for a market good innovation. The ranking of the two types of subsidies reflects that the appropriability problem is greater for an environmental innovation than for a market good innovation.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Rolf Golombek","Mads Greaker","Michael Hoel"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2019.101132","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1b3c36fa4e6a92e4","title":"The role of imperfect surrogate endpoint information in drug approval and reimbursement decisions","abstract":"Approval of new drugs is increasingly reliant on \"surrogate endpoints,\" which correlate with but imperfectly predict clinical benefits. Proponents argue surrogate endpoints allow for faster approval, but critics charge they provide inadequate evidence. We develop an economic framework that addresses the value of improvement in the predictive power, or \"quality,\" of surrogate endpoints, and clarifies how quality can influence decisions by regulators, payers, and manufacturers. For example, the framework shows how lower-quality surrogates lead to greater misalignment of incentives between payers and regulators, resulting in more drugs that are approved for use but not covered by payers. Efficient price-negotiation in the marketplace can help align payer incentives for granting access based on surrogates. Higher-quality surrogates increase manufacturer profits and social surplus from early access to new drugs. Since the return on better quality is shared between manufacturers and payers, private incentives to invest in higher-quality surrogates are inefficiently low.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Katalin Bognar","John A. Romley","Jay Bae","James F. Murray","Jacquelyn W. Chou","Darius Lakdawalla"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.12.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1b45efeaca1942dc","title":"Disentangling supply and demand shocks in the EU ETS – Before and after the introduction of the Market Stability Reserve","abstract":"This paper employs a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model to analyze the impact of supply and demand shocks on European emission allowance (EUA) prices. We decompose EUA price changes into five components: (1) policy surprises, identified through a high-frequency approach, (2) demand shocks driven by economic activity, (3) shocks to the electricity sector's expected demand linked to fossil fuel price fluctuations, (4) shocks to the electricity sector's realized demand, measured using a novel metric based on electricity generation data, and (5) market-specific shocks, primarily reflecting precautionary demand driven by expectations of future policy tightening. Our results show that all these shocks significantly impact EUA prices. However, post-2019, the introduction of the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which tackled excessive oversupply in the system, decreased the influence of policy interventions and precautionary shocks, aligning EUA prices more closely with the other demand-side factors. While only 33.5% of the variance in EUA prices can be attributed to the three real-time demand shocks before 2019, this figure almost doubled to 58.4% after the MSR's introduction. This shift suggests that a mechanism to address oversupply can be a crucial step towards achieving a more efficient, real-time demand-driven carbon pricing in emissions trading systems.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Andreas Maulberger","Andreas W. Rathgeber"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101575","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1b5a2f4b6e5de98b","title":"Do Legal Origins Predict Legal Substance?","abstract":"There is a large body of research in economics and law suggesting that the legal origin of a country—that is, whether its legal regime is based on English common law or French, German, or Nordic civil law—profoundly impacts a range of outcomes. However, the exact relationship between legal origin and legal substance has been disputed in the literature and not fully explored with nuanced legal coding. We revisit this debate while leveraging novel cross-country data sets that provide detailed coding of two areas of laws: property and antitrust. We find that having shared legal origins strongly predicts whether countries have similar property regimes but does little to predict whether countries have similar antitrust regimes. Our results suggest that legal origin may be an important predictor of legal substance in well-established legal regimes but does little to explain substantive variation in more recent areas of law.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Anu Bradford","Yun‐chien Chang","Adam Chilton","Nuno Garoupa"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712420","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-1b5a75bcc2264582","title":"Scarring and Selection in the Great Irish Famine","abstract":"How do famines shape the health of survivors? We examine the long‐term impact of the Great Irish Famine (1845–52) on human stature, distinguishing between adverse scarring effects and the apparent resilience of survivors due to selection. Using anthropometric data from more than 14500 individuals born before, during, and after this famine, we find that selection effects were most pronounced in areas with the highest mortality rates. Individuals born in severely affected regions exhibited no evidence of stunted growth, indicating that the Famine disproportionately eliminated the most vulnerable. In contrast, stunting is observed only in areas with lower excess mortality, where selective pressures were weaker. These findings contribute to debates on the biological consequences of extreme catastrophic risks, demonstrating how selection effects can obscure long‐term health deterioration. More broadly, our study provides a methodological framework for assessing selection in historical anthropometric research.","wordCount":141,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Matthias Blum","Christopher L. Colvin","Eoin McLaughlin"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.70013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1b5edf3b04a1e478","title":"The impact of the Public Sector Purchase Programme on lending to SMEs","abstract":"We study the impact of the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) between 2015 and 2018 on lending volumes in the Eurozone. We find a connection between purchases under the PSPP and: (i) lending volumes on types of loans mainly obtained by SMEs; (ii) loans below 1 million euros during the expansion phase of the program until the end of 2016, and loans above 1 million euros in its contraction phase; (iii) substantial changes in lending volumes in economies with high levels of public debt and distressed financial systems, and; (iv) types of loans mainly obtained by SMEs in more resilient economies. These findings point to the effectiveness of the credit channel as a transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy and support the decision of the ECB to reactivate the program at the end of 2019.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Vlad Skovorodov","Rui Silva"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103659","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1b9537b359713d8d","title":"Reinforcement or compensation? Parental responses to children’s revealed human capital levels","abstract":"A small but increasing body of literature finds that parents invest in their children unequally. However, the evidence is contradictory, and providing convincing causal evidence of the effect of child ability on parental investment in a low-income context is challenging. This paper examines how parents respond to the differing abilities of primary school-aged Ethiopian siblings, using rainfall shocks during the critical developmental period between pregnancy and the first 3 years of a child’s life to isolate exogenous variations in child ability within the household, observed at a later stage than birth. The results show that on average parents attempt to compensate disadvantaged children through increased cognitive investment. The effect is significant, but small in magnitude: parents provide about 3.9% of a standard deviation more in educational fees to the lower-ability child in the observed pair. We provide suggestive evidence that families with educated mothers, smaller household size and higher wealth compensate with greater cognitive resources for a lower-ability child.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Wei Fan","Catherine Porter"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00752-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1ba0b7c8f7c30a61","title":"Aspirations and the Role of Social Protection: Evidence from a Natural Disaster in Rural Pakistan","abstract":"Citizens’ aspirations are increasingly recognized as an important dimension of their well-being. Those with high aspirations set ambitious goals for themselves, and those with low aspirations may fall prey to a poverty trap. Do natural disasters negatively impact aspirations? If so, can governments blunt these effects? We consider Pakistan’s devastating 2010 floods—and the government’s uneven relief efforts—to analyze these questions. We first show that the extreme rainfall generating this disaster significantly reduced aspirations, even when current levels of household expenditure, wealth, and education are taken into account. Individuals experiencing 2010 monsoon season rainfall that was one standard deviation higher than average had aspiration levels 1.5 years later that were 0.15 standard deviations lower than those of similar individuals experiencing just average levels of rainfall. This is the same negative shock to aspirations that one would experience as a result of a 50% reduction in household expenditures. Moreover, the negative effect of natural disasters on aspirations is especially strong among the poor, and among those who are most vulnerable to weather shocks. However, exploiting exogenous variation in flood relief access, we show that government social protection can attenuate these negative impacts. Individuals in villages that received Citizens Damage Compensation (Watan Card) Program flood relief—providing cash equivalent to 9.4% of annual household expenditures in each of the three years following the disaster—saw significantly lower declines in aspirations than did those in similarly affected villages without this relief. This offers a new understanding of social protection; it not only restores livelihoods and replaces damaged assets, but also has an enduring effect by easing mental burdens, and thus raising aspirations for the future. The negative effects of natural disasters and the efficacy of government relief programs may thus be underestimated if aspirations are ignored.","wordCount":290,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Katrina Kosec","Cecilia Hyunjung Mo"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.03.039","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1ba83c3659bc3325","title":"Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam","abstract":"This paper provides causal evidence on early-life exposure to war on mental health status in adulthood. Using an instrumental variable strategy, the evidence indicates that early-life exposure to bombing during the American war in Vietnam has long-term effects. A one percent increase in bombing intensity during 1965–75 increases the likelihood of severe mental distress in adulthood by 16 percentage points (or approximately 50 percent of the mean) and this result is robust to a variety of sensitivity checks. The negative effects of war are similar for both men and women. These findings add to the evidence on the enduring consequences of conflict and identify a critical area for policy intervention.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Saurabh Singhal"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1bb98199ee84d27b","title":"Did Austerity Cause Brexit?","abstract":"This paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government’s austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Thiemo Fetzer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181164","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1bd44be53e38882c","title":"Investor sentiment and firm capital structure","abstract":"We provide novel evidence of the role of investor sentiment in determining firms' capital structure decisions from three perspectives: leverage ratio, debt maturity and leverage target adjustment. We find that when investor sentiment is high, firms increase their leverage ratios, supporting our contention that high investor sentiment increases firms' debt capacity and facilitates the use of an aggressive leverage policy. Debt maturity is shorter in high sentiment periods, implying that firms are confident about future earnings and use shorter debt maturity to signal their financial solvency. Leverage target adjustment is slower in low sentiment periods, indicating higher costs of external finance. Furthermore, the sentiment-leverage relationship sensitivity is greater for financially constrained firms. Our extended analysis determines that leverage-increasing firms generate lower stock returns subsequent to a period of high sentiment, offering practical insights into the economic consequences of increasing leverage in high sentiment periods on corporate value for investors. Our research advances the understanding of the impact of investor sentiment on firms' financing decisions and stock returns.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Shengfeng Li","Hafiz Hoque","Jia Liu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102426","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1c000e0292061419","title":"Valuing product innovation: genetically engineered varieties in US corn and soybeans","abstract":"We develop a discrete‐choice model of differentiated products for US corn and soybean seed demand to study the welfare impact of genetically engineered (GE) crop varieties. Using a unique data set spanning the period 1996–2011, we find that the welfare impact of the GE innovation is significant. In the last five years of the period analyzed, our preferred counterfactual indicates that total surplus due to GE traits was $5.18 billion per year, with seed manufacturers appropriating 56% of this surplus. The seed industry obtained more surplus from GE corn, whereas farmers received more surplus from GE soybeans.","wordCount":97,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Federico Ciliberto","GianCarlo Moschini","Edward Perry"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12290","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1c1e2bc6c2cf9293","title":"Loan spreads and credit cycles: The role of lenders’ personal economic experiences","abstract":"We provide evidence that changes in lender optimism can lead to excessive fluctuations in credit spreads across the credit cycle. Using data on the real estate properties of loan officers originating large corporate loans, we find that credit spreads overreact to sophisticated lenders’ recent local economic experiences, captured by local housing price growth. These effects are only present when borrowers own real estate assets and during times of greater uncertainty about real estate values, i.e., boom-and-bust cycles in housing prices. Our analysis suggests that recent personal experiences shape sophisticated lenders’ beliefs about real estate values, which affect their pricing decisions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Daniel Carvalho","Janet Gao","Pengfei Ma"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.02.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1c224fc528bb395a","title":"The Politics of Selecting the Bench from the Bar: The Legal Profession and Partisan Incentives to Introduce Ideology into Judicial Selection","abstract":"Using a data set capturing the ideological positioning of nearly half a million US judges and lawyers, we present evidence showing how ideology affects the selection of judges across federal and state judiciaries. We document that the higher the court, the more it deviates ideologically from the ideology of attorneys, which suggests that ideology plays a strong role in judicial selection. We also show that ideology plays stronger roles in jurisdictions where judges are selected via political appointments or partisan elections. Our findings suggest that ideology is an important component of judicial selection primarily when using ideology leads to expected benefits to politicians, when the jurisdiction’s selection process allows ideology to be used, and when it concerns the most important courts. This study is the first to provide a direct ideological comparison across judicial tiers and between judges and lawyers and to explain how and why American courts become politicized.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Adam Bonica","Maya Sen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696575","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1c2d4e1bba3b17cb","title":"JUE insight: Expectations about future tax rates and firm entry","abstract":"Firms should use all available information to anticipate future tax rates. Firm mobility is one source of such information. We first establish theoretically that expected future tax rates are higher in jurisdictions attractive for immobile firms (such as wind power plants or resource extracting firms). Fewer mobile firms enter in such a jurisdiction. Building on previous empirical evidence that German municipalities raise tax rates following the entry of immobile firms, we confirm that firms use this information to anticipate future tax rates. In the jurisdictions with the largest expected future tax rate increases, 10% fewer firms enter.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Dominika Langenmayr","Martin Simmler"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103666","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1c2e36b6e9dbca91","title":"Robots and Firms","abstract":"We study the microeconomic implications of robot adoption using a rich panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 27-year period (1990–2016). We provide causal evidence on two central questions: (1) Which firm characteristics prompt firms to adopt robots? (2) What is the impact of robots on adopting firms relative to non-adopting firms? To address these questions, we look at our data through the lens of recent attempts in the literature to formalise the implications of robot technology. As for the first question, we establish robust evidence for positive selection, i.e., ex ante better performing firms (measured through output and labour productivity) are more likely to adopt robots. On the other hand, conditional on size, ex ante more skill-intensive firms are less likely to do so. As for the second question, we find that robot adoption generates substantial output gains in the vicinity of 20–25% within four years, reduces the labour cost share by 5–7% points, and leads to net job creation at a rate of 10%. These results are robust to controlling for non-random selection into robot adoption through a difference-in-differences approach combined with a propensity score reweighting estimator. To further validate these results, we also offer structural estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) where robot technology enters the (endogenous) productivity process of firms. The results demonstrate a positive causal effect of robots on productivity as well as a complementarity between robots and exporting in boosting productivity.","wordCount":239,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Michael Koch","Ilya Manuylov","Marcel Smolka"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab009","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-1c336080fb538105","title":"The effect of culture on fiscal redistribution: Evidence based on genetic, epidemiological and linguistic data","abstract":"Using a set of innovative instruments qualified by the literature, we investigate the effect of individualist culture on fiscal redistribution. Our analysis suggests that societies characterized by less collectivistic culture present higher levels of fiscal redistribution, as proxied by government subsidies and transfers as well as health and education expenses.","wordCount":50,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Pantelis Kammas","Pantelis Kazakis","Vassilis Sarantides"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.029","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1c34a5294bc54852","title":"Can corporate digital transformation alleviate financing constraints?","abstract":"Financing constraints present a significant challenge for enterprises. Given China’s push for the integration of digital technology and the real economy, it is crucial to examine the impact of corporate digital transformation on financing. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019, we construct the digital transformation indicator employing a machine learning approach and find that corporate digital transformation can significantly alleviate financing constraints. The mechanism analysis shows that digital transformation improves corporate financing by reducing information asymmetry and transaction costs on both sides of financing and enhancing corporate performance. Combined with the mechanism analysis, we reveal that digital transformation has a significant effect on the alleviation of financing constraints among firms with private ownership, higher levels of interaction with investors, more developed financial environments and more intermediaries marketed in their locations, higher proportions of highly skilled workers, and better matching of digital technologies used for transformation. We explore micro-level measurement methods of corporate digital transformation, contributes to the literature on the economic consequences of digital transformation, and enriches the research on enterprise responses to financing constraints. The findings have important implications for promoting corporate digital transformation practices and for understanding coping strategies of different firms.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Juan He","Xiaodong Du","Wei Tu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2187037","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1c4a30f1bc055739","title":"Internal Geography, International Trade, and Regional Specialization","abstract":"We introduce an internal geography to the canonical model of international trade driven by comparative advantages to study the regional effects of external economic integration. The model features a dual-economy structure, in which locations near international gates specialize in export-oriented sectors while more distant locations do not trade with the rest of the world. The theory rationalizes patterns of specialization, employment, and relative incomes observed in developing countries that opened up to trade. We find regional specialization patterns consistent with the model in industry-level data from Chinese prefectures.","wordCount":88,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["A. Kerem Grieco Cosar","Pablo Fajgelbaum"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140145","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1c60f3e4217f56e1","title":"Dynamic Competition and Arbitrage in Electricity Markets: The Role of Financial Players","abstract":"I study the effects of financial players who trade alongside physical buyers and sellers in electricity markets. Using detailed firm-level data, I examine physical and financial firms’ responses to regulation that exogenously increased financial trading. I show that the effect of speculators on generators’ market power depends on the kind of equilibrium they are in. I develop a test of the null of static Nash equilibrium and reject it. To implement the test, I present a new method to define markets using machine-learning tools. I find that increased financial trading reduced generators’ market power and increased consumer surplus.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Ignacia Mercadal"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190276","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1c650e49013468ca","title":"This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis","abstract":"Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a \"this time truly is different\" moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) did more to counteract the downturn - especially in the Eurozone -, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Philipp Heimberger"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103522","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1c65c04a3be5373a","title":"Colonial New Jersey Paper Money, 1709–1775: Value Decomposition and Performance","abstract":"I decompose the market value of Colonial New Jersey's paper money into its component parts, namely its real-asset present value and transaction premium. Its market value was predominately determined by its real-asset present value. I also find a small transaction premium that is positively associated with the quantity of paper money in circulation and with the land-bank method of paper money injection. This paper money was not a fiat currency. It traded below face value due to time-discounting not depreciation.","wordCount":80,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Farley Grubb"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716001029","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1c7e893b3d3d6cc4","title":"Do all institutional investors care about corporate carbon emissions?","abstract":"This paper investigates whether institutional investors promote the abatement of corporate carbon emissions. Using firm-level data on the U. S from 2007 to 2017, we find that institutional investors help reduce carbon emissions. The result is more pronounced in firms with more independent (investment companies, investment advisors, and pension funds), long-term, and monitoring institutional ownership. Our result holds when we employ a quasi-natural experiment and the difference-in-differences approach to address endogeneity. The channel analysis documents that institutional investors help reduce carbon emissions by reducing energy consumption. We also find that shareholder activism is a proximal monitoring mechanism through which institutional investors influence firms to achieve better carbon performance. Finally, our results show that the advantage for institutional investors from reducing carbon emissions is higher firm value.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Md Safiullah","Md. Samsul Alam","Md. Shahidul Islam"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106376","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1c89e15c7345d3e8","title":"The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: Evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict","abstract":"This paper studies how conflict affects household resilience capacity and food security, drawing on panel data collected from households in Palestine before and after the 2014 Gaza conflict. During this escalation of violence, the majority of the damages in the Gaza Strip were concentrated close to the Israeli border. Using the distance to the Israeli border to identify the effect of the conflict at the household level through an instrumental variable approach, we find that the food security of households in the Gaza Strip was not directly affected by the conflict. However, household resilience capacity that is necessary to resist food insecurity declined among Gazan households as a result of the conflict. This was mainly due to a reduction of adaptive capacity, driven by the deterioration of income stability and income diversification. However, the conflict actually increased the use of social safety nets (expressed in the form of cash, in-kind or other transfers that were received by the households) and access to basic services (mainly access to sanitation) for the households exposed to the conflict. This finding may be related to the support provided to households in the Gaza Strip by national and international organizations after the end of the conflict. From a policy perspective, the case of the conflict in the Gaza Strip demonstrates that immediate and significant support to victims of conflict can indeed help restore resilience capacity.","wordCount":230,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Tilman Brück","Marco d’Errico","Rebecca Pietrelli"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1c903ff2d9a6cda8","title":"Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity","abstract":"The relative price of services rises with development. A standard interpretation of this fact is that productivity differences across countries are larger in manufacturing than in services. The service sector comprises heterogeneous categories and we document that many disaggregated service categories feature a negative income elasticity of relative prices. We divide service industries into two broad categories based on the income gradient of its relative price: traditional services with positive income elasticities and nontraditional services with negative income elasticities of relative prices. Using an otherwise standard multisector development accounting framework extended to include an input–output structure, we find that the cross-country income elasticity of sectoral productivity is large in nontraditional services (1.15), smaller in manufacturing (1.05), and much smaller in traditional services (0.67). Eliminating cross-country productivity differences in nontraditional services reduces aggregate income disparity by 58%, a 7.9-fold reduction in aggregate productivity differences. Heterogeneity between traditional and nontraditional services also has a substantial impact on aggregate productivity.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Margarida Duarte","Diego Restuccia"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz022","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1c9199f462ce61f3","title":"Robots and firm investment","abstract":"Using cross-country and German administrative data on robotization, we show that the impact of robots on firms and labor markets is limited. First, investment in robots is small and highly concentrated in a few industries, representing less than 0.3% of aggregate expenditures on equipment. Second, robotization does not grow as rapidly as Information Technology did in the past, and current growth is driven by gains in developing countries. Third, firms invest in robots when they face difficulties in finding workers and subsequently increase employment after the investment. The total employment effect in exposed industries and regions is negative but modest in magnitude. We discuss why the effects of robots are limited and demonstrate that other digital technologies have more potential for large economic impact.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Efraim Benmelech","Michał Zator"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104183","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1c97f716787ce243","title":"Understanding regressivity: Challenges and opportunities of European carbon pricing","abstract":"We examine how a European carbon price will affect citizens by studying its incidence on households in 23 countries of the EU. At the national level, the distributional impact before revenue recycling is mainly neutral, sometimes progressive. At an aggregate EU level, however, the impact is regressive because some low-income countries would be strongly affected by the carbon price. While national redistribution can yield a progressive EU incidence, we show that European-wide redistribution is more effective for the most affected households. We offer two indicators to offset regressive distributional effects of EU climate policy, such as the recently proposed Green Deal. The first renders the tax burden proportional; the second focuses on compensating the households most severely affected. Including both indicators in European redistribution makes for a better representation of the initial burden of carbon pricing and could increase public acceptability.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Simon Feindt","Ulrike Kornek","José M. Labeaga","Thomas Sterner","Hauke Ward"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14468/25497","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1ca0fdfddc26f213","title":"Choice overload and asymmetric regret","abstract":"We propose a model of “choice overload,” which refers to a stronger tendency to select the default option in larger choice problems. Our main finding is a behavioral characterization of an asymmetric regret representation that depicts a decision maker who does not consider the possibility of experiencing regret for choosing the default option. By contrast, the value of ordinary alternatives is subject to regret. The calculus of regret for ordinary alternatives is identical to that in Sarver's (2008) anticipated regret model, despite the fact that the primitives of the two theories are different. Our model can also be applied to choice problems with the option to defer the decision.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Gökhan Buturak","Özgür Evren"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2037","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-1ca1a867ac46284e","title":"The convergence dynamics of economic freedom across U.S. states","abstract":"This study tests for convergence in economic freedom across the 50 U.S. states from 1981 to 2019. In particular, we test for stochastic convergence in overall economic freedom using unit root tests that account for structural breaks and bounded processes, two sources of parameter instability. We find limited evidence of stochastic convergence. Further analysis of relative (club) convergence and weak σ ‐convergence rejects the presence of overall convergence in the panel of the U.S. states, but the emergence of two convergence clubs with respect to state‐level economic freedom. The logit analysis of the determinants of the convergence clubs reveals that more prosperous states and states with a higher initial level of economic freedom have a higher probability of being in the club with more economic freedom. However, more racially diverse states have a lower probability of being in the club with more economic freedom.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["James E. Payne","James W. Saunoris","Şaban Nazlıoğlu","Çağın Karul"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12629","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1ca7fe82ba0d8c1d","title":"Herding through booms and busts","abstract":"This paper explores whether rational herding can generate endogenous aggregate fluctuations. We embed a tractable model of rational herding into a business cycle framework. In the model, technological innovations arrive with unknown qualities, and agents have dispersed information about how productive the technology really is. Rational investors decide whether to invest based on their private information and the investment behavior of others. Herd-driven boom-bust cycles arise endogenously in this environment when the technology is unproductive but investors' initial information is overly optimistic. Their overoptimism leads to high investment rates, which investors mistakenly attribute to good fundamentals, leading to a self-reinforcing pattern of higher optimism and higher investment until the economy reaches a peak, followed by a crash when agents ultimately realize their mistake. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and show that it can broadly explain boom-and-bust cycles like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Edouard Schaal","Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105669","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1cb5c5f4c242b14a","title":"The income consequences of a managed retreat","abstract":"Managed retreat is the relocation of households out of harm's way. After the 2011 Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquake, around 16000 people were thus relocated in a managed retreat program. We use administrative panel data (2004–2018) to identify the effects of this managed retreat on the relocated population. We find that, compared to the non-relocated residents, the relocated population experienced a significant initial decrease in their wages, and in their total income. Wages of those who were relocated were reduced by around $NZ 1900. Women faced greater absolute and relative decreases in wages. This finding has direct implications for the compensation packages that should be proposed for managed retreat programs.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Thoa Hoang","Ilan Noy"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103896","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1cb68bd7f9cb85c8","title":"Product safety, contracts, and liability","abstract":"A firm sells a dangerous product to heterogeneous consumers. Higher consumer types suffer accidents more often but may enjoy higher gross benefits. The firm invests resources to reduce the frequency of accidents. When the consumer's net benefit function (gross benefits minus expected harms) is decreasing in consumer type, the firm contractually accepts liability for accident losses and invests efficiently. When the consumer's net benefit function is increasing in consumer type, the firm contractually disclaims liability and underinvests. Legal interventions, including products liability and limits on contractual waivers and disclaimers, are necessary to raise the level of product safety.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Xinyu Hua","Kathryn E. Spier"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12311","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1cbd4fdb2d172e70","title":"Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles","abstract":"We present a model of credit cycles arising from diagnostic expectations—a belief formation mechanism based on Kahneman and Tversky's representativeness heuristic. Diagnostic expectations overweight future outcomes that become more likely in light of incoming data. The expectations formation rule is forward looking and depends on the underlying stochastic process, and thus is immune to the Lucas critique. Diagnostic expectations reconcile extrapolation and neglect of risk in a unified framework. In our model, credit spreads are excessively volatile, overreact to news, and are subject to predictable reversals. These dynamics can account for several features of credit cycles and macroeconomic volatility.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Pedro Bordalo","Nicola Gennaioli","Andrei Shleifer"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12586","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1ccb151a383ceb2c","title":"Cycling to School: Increasing Secondary School Enrollment for Girls in India","abstract":"We study the impact of an innovative program in the Indian state of Bihar that aimed to reduce the gender gap in secondary school enrollment by providing girls who continued to secondary school with a bicycle that would improve access to school. Using data from a large representative household survey, we employ a triple difference approach (using boys and the neighboring state of Jharkhand as comparison groups) and find that being in a cohort that was exposed to the Cycle program increased girls' age-appropriate enrollment in secondary school by 32 percent and reduced the corresponding gender gap by 40 percent. We also find an 18 percent increase in the number of girls who appear for the high-stakes secondary school certificate exam, and a 12 percent increase in the number of girls who pass it. Parametric and non-parametric decompositions of the triple-difference estimate as a function of distance to the nearest secondary school show that the increases in enrollment mostly took place in villages that were further away from a secondary school, suggesting that the mechanism of impact was the reduction in the time and safety cost of school attendance made possible by the bicycle. We also find that the Cycle program was much more cost effective at increasing girls' secondary school enrollment than comparable conditional cash transfer programs in South Asia.","wordCount":221,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Karthik Muralidharan","Nishith Prakash"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1ce83549a02086c3","title":"Industry location and wages: The role of market size and accessibility in trading networks","abstract":"We analyze the effects of local market size and accessibility on the spatial distribution of economic activity and wages in general equilibrium trade models with many asymmetric countries and costly trade for all goods. In models with a homogeneous sector, local market size is generally more strongly correlated with a country's industry share, whereas accessibility better explains a country's wage. We analytically show that result in a simplified case and then confirm it using simulations with random trading networks. In models with only differentiated sectors, both local market size and accessibility are highly correlated with wages. The impact of local market size on industry location is more robust than the impact of local market size on wages in economic geography models.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Javier Barbero","Kristian Behrens","José L. Zofío"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.04.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1ce9e7775aea2150","title":"Land transfer in rural China: incentives, influencing factors and income effects","abstract":"Land transfer incentives and their effect on farmers’ income in developing countries have been widely examined in the literate, but little is known about the driving mechanism of rural household income effect during land transfer. To fill in this gap, this paper explains the incentives of land transfer, analyses the influencing factors of farmers’ decision on land transfer, then measures the income effects of land transfer and identifies the main sources of income effects, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Family Panel Studies. The empirical results show that land flow out or in is beneficial to raise farmers’ income, indicating that the income effects have a positive feedback to farmers’ decision on land transfer. Further analyses reveal that land flow-out farmers and land flow-in farmers have different main sources of income growth. Our finding suggest that optimizing the incentive role of China’s existing rural land property system can help orderly flow of rural land resources, which subsequently increases rural household income.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Kaili Peng","Chen Yang","Yao Chen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1764484","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1cf04027314e7009","title":"Corruption and mental health: Evidence from Vietnam","abstract":"While there is substantial corruption in developing countries, the costs imposed by corruption on individuals and households are little understood. This study examines the relationship between exposure to local corruption and mental health, as measured by depressive symptoms. We use two large data sets – one cross-sectional and one panel – collected across rural Vietnam. After controlling for individual and regional characteristics, we find strong and consistent evidence that day-to-day petty corruption is positively associated with psychological distress. Our results are robust to a variety of specification checks. Further, we find that the relationship between corruption and mental health is stronger for women, and that there are no heterogeneous effects by poverty status. An examination of the underlying mechanisms shows that reductions in income and trust associated with higher corruption may play a role. Finally, using a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, we also provide suggestive evidence that a recent high profile anti-corruption campaign had significant positive effects on mental health. Overall, our findings indicate that there may be substantial psychosocial and mental health benefits from efforts to reduce corruption and improve rural governance structures.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Smriti Sharma","Saurabh Singhal","Finn Tarp"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.02.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1cf39e0796bac437","title":"Fossil fuels subsidy removal and the EU carbon neutrality policy","abstract":"The complexity of the EU carbon neutrality policy is addressed by evaluating the impacts of the interaction among different policy instruments. An energy-economic dynamic CGE model based on GTAP utilities is developed for simulating different policy scenarios starting from a business as usual case where the economic impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures are included. The instruments tested as part of the EU climate strategy are the removal of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies, a carbon pricing mechanism and the public support to clean energy technologies. The modelling approach is based on a revenue recycling mechanism to finance clean energy technologies. We find that the simultaneous implementation of all instruments under the EU climate strategy including the removal of subsidies to fossil fuels and the reuse of revenues to foster the technological transition of the energy system is a win-win solution for a sustainable and decarbonised EU economy.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Alessandro Antimiani","Valeria Costantini","Elena Paglialunga"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106524","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1cf762d5933549f6","title":"Information frictions and housing market dynamics","abstract":"I examine the effects of seller uncertainty over their home value on the housing market. Using evidence from home listings and transactions data, I first show that sellers do not have full information about current period demand conditions for their homes. I incorporate this type of uncertainty into a dynamic microsearch model of the home selling problem with Bayesian learning. The estimated model highlights how information frictions help to explain the microdecisions of sellers and how these microdecisions affect aggregate market dynamics. The model generates a significant microfounded momentum effect in short‐run aggregate price appreciation rates.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Elliot Anenberg"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12204","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1cfc64f50bcd5476","title":"Do dictatorships redistribute more?","abstract":"This paper examines the effect of political institutions on fiscal redistribution for a country-level panel from 1960–2010. Using data on Gini coefficients before and after government intervention, we apply a measure of effective fiscal redistribution that reflects the effect of taxes and transfers on income inequality. Our findings clearly indicate that non-democratic regimes demonstrate significantly greater direct fiscal redistribution. Subsequently, we employ fiscal data in an attempt to enlighten this puzzling empirical finding. We find that dictatorial regimes rely more heavily on cash transfers that exhibit a direct impact on net inequality and consequently on the difference between market and net inequality (i.e., effective fiscal redistribution), whereas democratic regimes devote a larger amount of resources to public inputs (health and education) that may influence market inequality but not the difference between market and net inequality per se. We argue that the driving force behind the observed differences within the pattern on government spending and effective fiscal redistribution is that democratic institutions lead survival-oriented leaders to care more for the private market, and thus to follow policies that enhance the productivity of the whole economy.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Pantelis Kammas","Vassilis Sarantides"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2018.10.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1d02d0389600a459","title":"Measuring Systemic Risk","abstract":"We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), that is, its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases in the institution's leverage and its marginal expected shortfall (MES), that is, its losses in the tail of the system's loss distribution. We demonstrate empirically the ability of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007-2009.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Viral V. Acharya","Lasse Heje Pedersen","Thomas Philippon","Matthew Richardson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw088","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-1d071c4e9b46e791","title":"The effects of negative interest rates on cash usage: Evidence for EU countries","abstract":"Changes in interest rates below the zero lower bound could have potential effects on the payments market by making cash more attractive for consumers as a medium of payment and wealth storage. This paper studies how cash usage has been affected by the recent introduction of negative interest rates in European countries. Using a difference-in-differences methodology over the period 2006–2018, results show an increase in cash usage in negative interest-rate environments. We also find that the increase in cash usage was less pronounced in countries with superior monitoring capacity of banks (i.e. high levels of financial intermediation).","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["José Manuel Liñares-Zegarra","Magnus Willesson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109674","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1d1bde2849d18af7","title":"Behavioral spillovers","abstract":"What is a behavioral spillover? How can a spillover be uncovered from the data? What is the precise link between the underlying psychological theory of a spillover and the econometric assumptions which are necessary to estimate it? This paper draws on recent advancements in causal inference, behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience to develop a framework for the causal evaluation and interpretation of behavioral spillovers. A novel empirical research design is suggested and a guide for the empirical researcher is developed. Using this guide, the paper reevaluates a large number of existing empirical results and suggests an agenda for future research.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Petyo Bonev"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106857","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1d1d7476c0d23095","title":"The role of public pensions in income inequality among elderly households in China 1988–2013","abstract":"Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project surveys for 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2013, we investigate the role of public pensions in income inequality among households with elderly members across two decades of pension policy reforms. We examine the distribution and role of public pensions at a national level and analyse the evolution of the contribution of public pensions to national income inequality across a much more extended time period than earlier studies, which have generally focused on regional changes over short periods. Our findings suggest that public pensions have become the most important source of income for households with elderly members on average in China, but the distribution of pension income is highly unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 0.74 in 2013. Public pension income has been the largest source of income inequality for elderly households since 2002 and contributed to more than half of total income inequality in the most recent year of the survey. This finding is robust against variations in the income inequality measures used. Additionally, our analysis suggests unequal distribution of pension benefits is the primary driver of pensioners' income inequality. Among several hypothetical policy changes, ensuring a minimum pension benefit for all existing pensioners seems to be the most fiscally effective option in reducing income inequality, with a 0.8% reduction in the Gini coefficient for a 1% increase in public pension expenditure.","wordCount":229,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Jinjing Li","Xinmei Wang","Jing Xu","Chang Yuan"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101422","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1d20488b2ae0012c","title":"Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates","abstract":"We show that negative policy rates affect the supply of bank credit in a novel way. Banks are reluctant to pass on negative rates to depositors, which increases the funding cost of high-deposit banks, and reduces their net worth, relative to low-deposit banks. As a consequence, the introduction of negative policy rates by the European Central Bank in mid-2014 leads to more risk-taking and less lending by euro-area banks with a greater reliance on deposit funding. Our results suggest that negative rates are less accommodative and could pose a risk to financial stability, if lending is done by high-deposit banks.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Florian Heider","Farzad Saidi","Glenn Schepens"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1d2454f54fb682d4","title":"The growth consequences of socialism","abstract":"Socialism causes a decrease in annual growth rates of approximately two percentage points. The discussion of the growth consequences of socialism has fulminated for a century, sparked off by the Calculation Debate in the 1920s and 30s, and has concerned the performance of the Soviet Union in the 1950s and the mixed development in the 1990s after communism collapsed in Central and Eastern Europe. We aim to inform these debates by providing an empirical assessment of how socialist economies performed across the second half of the 20th century. Using both neighbour comparisons as well as more formal empirical analysis of developing countries that turned socialist after independence, we derive a set of estimates of the degree to which the introduction of a planned socialist economy affects long-run growth and development. Our results robustly point towards a decrease in annual growth rates of approximately two percentage points during the first decade after implementing socialism.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Andreas Bergh","Christian Bjørnskov","Luděk Kouba"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1d53ad15c021f80e","title":"Fiscal austerity measures: Spending cuts vs. Tax increases","abstract":"We formulate an overlapping-generations model with household heterogeneity and productive and nonproductive government programs to study the macroeconomic and intergenerational welfare effects of risk premium shocks and government debt reductions. We demonstrate that in a small open economy with a high level of debt, a small increase in the risk premium of the interest rate leads to a substantial contraction in output and negative welfare effects. We then quantify the effects of reducing the debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio using a wide range of fiscal austerity measures. Our results indicate trade-offs between short-run contractions and long-run expansions in aggregate output. In the short run, spending-based austerity reforms are worse than tax-based reforms in terms of lost income. However, in the long run, spending-based reforms produce higher output than tax-based reforms. In addition, welfare effects vary significantly across generations, skill groups, and working sectors. The current old and middle-aged generations experience welfare losses, whereas future generations are beneficiaries of the reforms.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Gerhard Glomm","Juergen Jung","Chung Tran"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000298","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1d56d585b62b00e8","title":"A general characterization of the minimum price Walrasian rule with reserve prices","abstract":"We consider economies consisting of arbitrary numbers of agents and objects, and study the multi-object allocation problem with monetary transfers. Each agent obtains at most one object (unit-demand), and has non-quasi-linear preferences, which accommodate income effects or nonlinear borrowing costs. The seller may derive benefit from objects. We show that on the non-quasi-linear domain, the minimum price Walrasian rule in which reserve prices are equal to the benefit the seller derives is the only rule satisfying four desirable properties; efficiency, individual rationality for the buyers, no-subsidy, and strategy-proofness. Moreover, we characterize the minimum price Walrasian rule by efficiency, overall individual rationality, and strategy-proofness.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Yuya Wakabayashi","Ryosuke Sakai","Shigehiro Serizawa"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.11.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1d591a4b15dc8200","title":"Choking under pressure – Evidence of the causal effect of audience size on performance","abstract":"We analyze performance under pressure and estimate the causal effect of audience size on the success of free throws in top-level professional basketball . We use data from the National Basketball Association (NBA) for the seasons 2007/08 through 2015/16. We exploit the exogenous variation in weather conditions on game day to establish a causal link between attendance size and performance. Our results confirm a sizeable and strong negative effect of the number of spectators on performance. Home teams in (non-critical) situations at the beginning of games perform worse when the audience is larger. This result is consistent with the theory of a home choke rather than a home field advantage. Our results have potentially large implications for general questions of workplace design and help to further understand how the social environment affects performance. We demonstrate that positive feedback from a friendly audience does affect performance negatively.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["René Böheim","Dominik Grübl","Mario Lackner"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1d5e11640a42a840","title":"Clarifications of a Puzzle: The Decline in Nutritional Status at the Onset of Modern Economic Growth in the United States","abstract":"Bodenhom, Guinnane, and Mroz (2017) are critical of anthropometric research using based on non-random samples. Declining height trends in military and prison data, they argue, are artifacts of negative selection during favorable labor market conditions. We study height trends in the United States in the antebellum decades, which coincided with the onset of modem economic growth. We find that neither the historical evidence nor their own statistical analysis support their views. The decline in physical stature in the decades before the Civil War was real, as Zimran (2019) has also shown.","wordCount":91,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["John Komlos","Brian A’Hearn"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000573","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1d65cf1664cadca8","title":"Exogeneity tests and weak identification in IV regressions: Asymptotic theory and point estimation","abstract":"This paper provides new insights on exogeneity tests in linear IV models and their use for estimation, when identification fails or may not be strong. We make two main contributions. First , we show that Durbin–Wu–Hausman (DWH) and Revankar–Hartley (RH) exogeneity tests have correct level asymptotically, even when the first-stage coefficient matrix (which controls identification) is rank-deficient. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which these tests are consistent. In particular, we show that test consistency can hold even when identification fails, provided at least one component of the structural parameter vector is identifiable. Second , we study point estimation after estimator (or model) selection, when the outcome of a DWH/RH test determines whether OLS or an IV method is employed in the second-stage. For this purpose, we use ( non-local ) concepts of asymptotic bias , asymptotic mean squared error (AMSE), and asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE), which remain applicable even when the estimators considered do not have moments (as can happen for 2SLS) or may be inconsistent. We study the asymptotic properties of OLS, 2SLS, and pretest estimators which select OLS or 2SLS based on the outcome of a DWH/RH test. We show that: (i) OLS typically dominates 2SLS estimator asymptotically for MSE across a broad spectrum of cases, including weak identification and moderate endogeneity; (ii) exogeneity-pretest estimators exhibit consistently good performance and asymptotically dominate both OLS and 2SLS. The proposed theoretical findings are documented by Monte Carlo simulations.","wordCount":240,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Firmin Doko Tchatoka","Jean‐Marie Dufour"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105821","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1d66045b225541b8","title":"The Effect of PhD Funding on Postdegree Research Career and Publication Productivity","abstract":"This paper explores the extent to which PhD funding encourages postdegree research career and leads to publications. Using novel data on Italian PhD graduates, I find positive modest effects of funding both on pursuing a research career and on publication productivity within a few years after graduation. The results are robust to a battery of checks and different model specifications. I also provide evidence that funded students invest more in research‐oriented activities and spend less time on outside (non‐research) work during the PhD, thus highlighting mechanisms that potentially account for the effect of funding.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Roberto Nisticò"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12232","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1d7ddf46c9b91a49","title":"The many Faces of Human Sociality: Uncovering the Distribution and Stability of Social Preferences","abstract":"We uncover heterogeneity in social preferences with a structural model that accounts for outcome-based and reciprocity-based social preferences and assigns individuals to endogenously determined preferences types. We find that neither at the aggregate level nor when we allow for several distinct preference types do purely selfish types emerge, suggesting that other-regarding preferences are the rule and not the exception. There are three temporally stable other-regarding types. When ahead, all types value others' payoffs more than when behind. The first, strongly altruistic type puts a large weight on others' payoffs even when behind and displays moderate levels of reciprocity. The second, moderately altruistic type also puts positive weight on others' payoff, yet at a lower level, and displays no positive reciprocity. The third, behindness averse type puts a large negative weight on others' payoffs when behind and is selfish otherwise. In addition, we show that individual-specific estimates of preferences offer only very modest improvements in out-of-sample predictions compared to our three-type model. Thus, a parsimonious model with three types captures the bulk of the information about subjects' social preferences.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Adrian Bruhin","Ernst Fehr","Daniel Schunk"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1d834c9537ed7acb","title":"Work‐from‐home productivity during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence from Japan","abstract":"This study examines the productivity of working from home (WFH) practices during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results reveal that the mean WFH productivity relative to working at the usual workplace was about 60%-70%, and it was lower for employees and firms that started WFH practice only after the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there was a large dispersion of WFH productivity, both by individual and firm characteristics. Highly educated and high-wage employees tended to exhibit a small reduction in WFH productivity. The results obtained from the employee and employer surveys were generally consistent with each other.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Masayuki Morikawa"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","M","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13056","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1d8500c772d2fb7f","title":"Place-Based Policies, Creation, and Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from China’s Economic Zone Program","abstract":"Combining rich firm and administrative data, this paper examines the incidence and effectiveness of a prominent place-based policy in China: special economic zones. Establishing zones is found to have had a positive effect on capital investment, employment, output, productivity, and wages, and to have increased the number of firms in the designated areas. Net entry plays a larger role in generating those effects than incumbents. The special zone program’s net benefits over three years are estimated to amount to about US$15.62 billion. Capital-intensive industries benefit more than labor-intensive ones from the zone programs.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Yi Lu","Wang Jin","Lianming Zhu"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160272","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1d8e165d4e54802a","title":"Children’s Diets, Nutrition Knowledge, and Access to Markets","abstract":"Chronic undernutrition in Ethiopia is widespread and many children consume highly monotonous diets. To improve feeding practices in Ethiopia, a strong focus in nutrition programming has been placed on improving the nutrition knowledge of caregivers. In this paper, we study the impact of improving nutrition knowledge within households and its complementarity with market access. To test whether the effect of nutrition knowledge on children’s dietary diversity depends on market access, we use survey data from an area with a large variation in transportation costs over a relatively short distance. This allows us to carefully assess the impact of households’ nutrition knowledge with varying access to markets, but still within similar agro-climatic conditions. We find that nutrition knowledge leads to considerable improvements in children’s diets, but only in areas with relatively good market access.","wordCount":133,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Kalle Hirvonen","John Hoddinott","Bart Minten","David Stifel"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.031","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1d9d44454f875514","title":"“Injury risk, concussions, race, and pay in the NFL”","abstract":"We make two main contributions to the literature on work-related injury risk and economic outcomes in the context of American professional football. One is to examine an increasingly important specific injury, concussions, and compare its subsequent economic effects to those of other types of football injuries. Our other contribution is to study the role of race in understanding injury risk and severity and their resulting economic consequences, which has been overlooked in previous sports injury research. Using a specific position, tight ends, which allows conditioning on fine-grained relevant measures of player demographics, playing time, and performance, we find that whether a player continues to play NFL football from year to year is affected by type of injury and the player’s race. We calculate that the average ex post loss in annual compensation from a concussion is about 7%. Moreover, the effect of games missed due to concussion on continued employment is triple that of other injuries. Being white positively affects length of playing career independent of the measured productivity of the players involved. The racial gap in career length is approximately equal to the effect of an additional game missed from concussion. With respect to heterogeneity in the effects of injuries, both concussions and other injury types affect ex post economic outcomes equally for white and nonwhite players. Both injuries and race affect compensation solely through their effects on career length.","wordCount":231,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Quinn Keefer","Thomas J. Kniesner"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09415-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1da8425477ee9884","title":"Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes","abstract":"Using novel survey data, we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes. Recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future U.S. house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected U.S. house price movements. When we exploit within‐individual variation in employment status, we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are, is inconsistent with risk adjustment, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Theresa Kuchler","Basit Zafar"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12819","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1daa3e46805b6a53","title":"Effects of patents on the transition from stagnation to growth","abstract":"This study provides a growth-theoretic analysis of the effects of intellectual property rights on the take-off of an economy from an era of stagnation to a state of sustained economic growth. We incorporate patent protection into a Schumpeterian growth model in which take-off occurs when the population size crosses an endogenous threshold. We find that strengthening patent protection has contrasting effects on economic growth at different stages of development. Specifically, it leads to an earlier take-off but also reduces economic growth in the long run.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Angus C. Chu","Zonglai Kou","Xilin Wang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00753-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1dbdd4fa3134e708","title":"The macroeconomic consequences of subsistence self-employment","abstract":"We evaluate the aggregate effects of expansions of credit supply in environments where subsistence self-employment is prevalent. We extend a standard macro development model to include unemployment risk, which becomes a key driver of selection into self-employment. The model is consistent with the joint distribution of earnings and occupations, the reaction of wages to labor demand shocks, and the small effects of expansions in the supply of microloans on the earnings of the self-employed. We find that the elasticity of aggregate output to expansions in credit supply is proportional to the elasticity of individual earnings. This proportionality arises due to the muted effects of wages in general equilibrium in the presence of subsistence self-employment, and is not present in models without subsistence self-employment due to a larger wage response, and a larger crowding-out of private savings in response to a higher availability of credit.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Juan Herreño","Sergio Ocampo"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.02.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1dc18e0f40df51f6","title":"Sticking points: common‐agency problems and contracting in the US healthcare system","abstract":"We propose a “common‐agency” model for explaining inefficient contracting in the US healthcare system. Common‐agency problems arise when multiple payers seek to motivate a provider to invest in improved care coordination. We highlight the possibility of “sticking points,” that is, Pareto‐dominated equilibria in which payers coordinate around contracts which give weak incentives to the provider. Sticking points rationalize three hard‐to‐explain features of the US healthcare system: widespread fee‐for‐service arrangements; problematic care coordination; and the historical reliance on single‐specialty practices to deliver care. The model also analyzes the effects of policies promoting more efficient contracting between payers and providers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Brigham Frandsen","Michael Powell","James B. Rebitzer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12269","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1dd460204651fbef","title":"Consumer obfuscation by a multiproduct firm","abstract":"This article shows that a multiproduct firm has incentives to obfuscate its products by using search costs to induce consumers to search through its products in a particular order. The consumers who draw high valuations of the first product terminate their search earlier than the consumers who draw low valuations. Thus, the firm has incentives to raise the price of the earlier searched product. The optimal search cost for an obfuscated product is such that consumers inspect the product only if the match values of the previously searched goods have been very poor.","wordCount":93,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Vaiva Petrikaitė"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12225","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1dd9844dba7458b1","title":"Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?","abstract":"Bayes’ statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Some recent research has questioned the use of Bayes’ rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight ‘good news’ relative to ‘bad news’ when updating ego-relevant beliefs. In this paper, we present experimental evidence testing whether this ‘good-news, bad-news’ effect is present in a financial decision making context (i.e. a domain that is important for understanding much economic decision making). We find no evidence of asymmetric updating in this domain. In contrast, in our experiment, belief updating is close to the Bayesian benchmark on average. However, we show that this average behavior masks substantial heterogeneity in individual updating behavior. We find no evidence in support of a sizeable subgroup of asymmetric updators.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Kai Barron"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09653-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1dda4e414dc914dd","title":"In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India","abstract":"The number and strength of climate-change-related disasters is increasing, and developing countries are bearing most of the brunt. In this paper we study how firms react to tropical cyclones in India. Using a panel of manufacturing firms between 1995 and 2006 and cyclone data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we find that the average cyclone destroys 2.2% of a firm’s fixed assets and decreases its sales by 3.1%. The impacts of the average cyclone are temporary and disappear after one year. Focusing on the heterogeneity of these results by firm and industry quality, we also find that capital and sales reallocate toward better-performing industries. Within industry, firm quality only matters for the response of sales.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Martino Pelli","Jeanne Tschopp","Natalia Bezmaternykh","Kodjovi Eklou"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103529","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1de3c8c10582756a","title":"Talent magnets in China: Can talent attraction policies catalyze digital transformation in enterprises?","abstract":"This study examines the impact of local talent attraction policies on enterprise digital transformation using a quasi-experimental design and data from A-share listed companies in China (2012–2019). Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find that these policies significantly enhance digital transformation by improving human capital and expanding external digital resources. The effects are more pronounced in enterprises with large external executive compensation gaps, newly-appointed executive teams, younger leaders, better reputations, weaker financing constraints, and those in technology-intensive operations. Moreover, our analysis reveals that greater policy intensity, including more substantial housing or monetary subsidies, significantly promotes digital transformation. The findings highlight the importance of governmental talent management in fostering digital innovation and provide evidence for policies aimed at attracting skilled talent to boost industrial competitiveness.","wordCount":123,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Zesu Hua","Shuning Kong","Yihua Yu"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102376","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1de645c28376982f","title":"Asian American Discrimination in Harvard Admissions","abstract":"Using detailed admissions data made public in the SFFA v. Harvard case, we examine how Asian American applicants are treated relative to similarly situated white applicants. Our preferred model shows that typical Asian American applicants would see their average admit rate rise by 19%, or approximately 1 percentage point, if they were treated as white applicants. We show that one of the channels through which Asian Americans are penalized is the personal rating and that including the personal rating cuts the Asian American penalty by less than half. While identifying the causal impact of race using observational data is challenging because of the presence of unobservables, this concern is mitigated in our setting. There is limited scope for omitted variables to overturn the result because (i) Asian Americans are substantially stronger than whites on the observables associated with admissions and (ii) the richness of the data yields a model that predicts admissions extremely well.","wordCount":154,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Peter Arcidiacono","Josh Kinsler","Tyler Ransom"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104079","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1de793979bed54cd","title":"The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity","abstract":"This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for demand fluctuations using disaggregate exports data. We find that health containment and economic support policies are highly effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19 without leading to a long-term contraction of economic activity.","wordCount":124,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Matthew Famiglietti","Fernando Leibovici"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104087","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1dfe5dfb3b58028a","title":"Finding a better job: The geography of socio-professional mobility during working life","abstract":"What determines the chances of moving up or down to better or worse jobs? We examine how local labor markets influence individuals’ socio-professional mobility throughout their working lives, focusing on large promotions and demotions. Using an empirical strategy that accounts for spatial sorting bias, applied to a sample of approximately 350,000 workers in France between 2009 and 2015, we find that job density, local human capital, and labor market size significantly increase the likelihood of being promoted to a higher socio-professional status. The effect of local factors is stronger for external promotions (outside the firm) than for internal ones. Moreover, experience accumulated in the most densely populated and educated areas continues to enhance promotion prospects, even after relocating to less dense or educated areas. This dynamic effect of promotion explains around 16% of the wage premium associated with experience in dense areas. Finally, we show that agglomerations effects on promotion are driven more by human capital externalities and proximity to other dense markets than by pure urbanization or scale effects. Experience gained in denser or highly educated areas enhances promotion prospects, even after relocation to less dense areas. This dynamic effect accounts for approximately 16% of the experience-related wage premium observed in those areas.","wordCount":204,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Paul Charruau","Anne Épaulard"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104162","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1e09235522f9654f","title":"Working from home after COVID-19: Evidence from job postings in 20 countries","abstract":"Jobseeker interest in remote work rose fivefold after the pandemic. Remote work surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. To analyze its post-pandemic persistency, we construct an original dataset measuring remote and hybrid work (WFH) in 20 OECD countries and 55 occupations from January 2019 to December 2023, based on over 1 billion job postings from the global job site Indeed. The share of job postings advertising WFH more than quadrupled from about 2.5 % to around 11 % between January 2020 and January 2023 in the average country in our sample, continuing to grow even after pandemic-related restrictions were phased out. Exploiting changes in pandemic severity across countries and differences in the feasibility of remote work across occupations in a difference-in-differences design, we find that increases in pandemic severity substantially raised advertised WFH, but pandemic easing had no effect. We then use job search data to document persistently high interest in WFH from jobseekers and conclude that the post-pandemic persistency of WFH may partly be a response by employers to demand for flexibility from workers.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Pawel Adrjan","Gabriele Ciminelli","Alexandre Judes","Michael Koelle","Cyrille Schwellnus","Tara M. Sinclair"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102751","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1e3275ce299998df","title":"On Bundling and Entry Deterrence","abstract":"A multiproduct incumbent firm faces the threat of entry from another multiproduct (generalist) firm or from single-product (specialist) firms. Assuming that the incumbent offers higher quality products than its rivals, we inquire whether the possibility of bundling by the incumbent is more effective in deterring entry in one setting or the other, and explore how the quality difference affects the comparison. For instance, for relatively high-quality differences the generalist is more vulnerable to bundling than are the specialists; but bundling is a credible action for the incumbent more often against specialists than against the generalist.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Andrea Greppi","Domenico Menicucci"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09785-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1e3473eede06b9cf","title":"Early option exercise: Never say never","abstract":"A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises by market makers and 67% by customers.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Mads Vestergaard Jensen","Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.05.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1e3bff31c3618043","title":"A plucking model of business cycles","abstract":"In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a “natural rate” and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view—labeled the “plucking model” by Milton Friedman—is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy’s full potential ceiling. If this view is correct, stabilization policy, by dampening these fluctuations, can raise the average level of activity. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment are followed by decreases of similar amplitude, while the amplitude of the increase is not related to the amplitude of the previous decrease. We develop a microfounded plucking model of the business cycle. The source of asymmetry in our model is downward nominal wage rigidity, which we embed in an explicit search model of the labor market. Our search framework implies that downward nominal wage rigidity is consistent with optimizing behavior and equilibrium. In our plucking model, stabilization policy lowers average unemployment and thereby yields sizable welfare gains.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Stéphane Dupraz","Emi Nakamura","Jón Steinsson"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103766","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1e50db6ae8ecd61a","title":"Combining two wrongs to make two rights: Mitigating food insecurity and food waste through gleaning operations","abstract":"Two concurrent social issues in the United States are food insecurity and food waste. The practice of gleaning offers a mechanism for combining these problems to create a synergistic solution. We develop a stochastic optimization model to determine the schedule that maximizes the volume of excess crops rescued from farm fields for the purpose of feeding food-insecure households, thus maximizing social impact. We model gleaning as a service operation where donation calls arrive randomly requesting to be scheduled within a limited time window. The feature that distinguishes gleaning operations from other service settings is that there is uncertainty in both when donations will arrive and the attendance of the gleaners who are volunteers that are not obliged to attend gleaning trips. We apply our model to the gleaning operation of the Food Bank of the Southern Tier in New York State, focusing on five major crops produced in the region. By characterizing how the gleaning operation behaves, our model allows us to optimize the gleaning schedule to maximize the expected total volume gleaned and determine under which conditions different operational strategies can be most useful for improving the performance of the gleaning operation. This in turn enables us to identify conditions under which alternative policy interventions (e.g., farm donation tax credits and government grants to strengthen operational capacity) are more effective for scaling up gleaning programs.","wordCount":226,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Deishin Lee","Erkut Sönmez","Miguel I. Gómez","Xiaoli Fan"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.12.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1e60c7404e5bed0d","title":"Evolutionary macroeconomic assessment of employment and innovation impacts of climate policy packages","abstract":"Climate policy has been mainly studied with economic models that assume representative, rational agents. Such policy aims, though, at changing carbon-intensive consumption and production patterns driven by bounded rationality and other-regarding preferences, such as status and imitation. To examine climate policy under such alternative behavioral assumptions, we develop a model tool by adapting an existing general-purpose macroeconomic multi-agent model. The resulting tool allows testing various climate policies in terms of combined climate and economic performance. The model is particularly suitable to address the distributional impacts of climate policies, not only because populations of many agents are included, but also as these are composed of different classes of households. The approach accounts for two types of innovations, which improve either the carbon or labor intensity of production. We simulate policy scenarios with distinct combinations of carbon taxation, a reduction of labor taxes, subsidies for green innovation, a price subsidy to consumers for less carbon-intensive products, and green government procurement. The results show pronounced differences with those obtained by rational-agent model studies. It turns out that a supply-oriented subsidy for green innovation, funded by the revenues of a carbon tax, results in a significant reduction of carbon emissions without causing negative effects on employment. On the contrary, demand-oriented subsidies for adopting greener technologies, funded in the same manner, result in either none or considerably less reduction of carbon emissions and may even lead to higher unemployment. Our study also contributes insight on a potential double dividend of shifting taxes from labor to carbon.","wordCount":251,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Bernhard Rengs","Manuel Scholz-Wäckerle","Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.11.025","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1e669a5591c7e579","title":"Discrimination, social identity, and coordination: An experiment","abstract":"This paper presents an experiment investigating whether decision makers discriminate between members of their own group and members of another group. I focus on two aspects of this question: First, I compare behavior in individual and in joint decisions; Second, I test whether the identity of the co-decision maker matters in joint decisions. Substantial own group favoritism occurs in joint decisions in spite of there being no such favoritism in individual decisions. Decision makers strongly favor own group candidates when deciding with someone from their own group, but not when deciding with someone from the other group. The study suggests that higher-order beliefs about co-decision maker behavior may be a factor behind discrimination in collective settings and that diversity in committees might be helpful in counteracting own group favoritism.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Vessela Daskalova"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2017.10.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1e6eaf0e7134fb65","title":"Who Benefits from Universal Child Care? Estimating Marginal Returns to Early Child Care Attendance","abstract":"We examine heterogeneous treatment effects of a universal child care program in Germany by exploiting variation in attendance caused by a reform that led to a large expansion staggered across municipalities. Drawing on novel administrative data from the full population of compulsory school entry examinations, we find that children with lower (observed and unobserved) gains are more likely to select into child care than children with higher gains. Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to attend child care than children from advantaged backgrounds but have larger treatment effects because of their worse outcome when not enrolled in child care.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Thomas Cornelißen","Christian Dustmann","Anna Raute","Uta Schönberg"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699979","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1e74f852b648c2db","title":"Relative Deprivation and School Enrolment. Evidence from Mexico","abstract":"Using a large dataset (2.9 million households), we provide solid evidence of relative deprivation as being a negative correlate of school enrolment in Mexico, absolute standard of living being controlled for. This result is robust to a number of specifications, and to the use of linear and less than linear indices of relative deprivation. In addition, we find that marginal effects of relative deprivation are stronger at higher standards of living and for older children.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Lucio Esposito","Adrián Villaseñor"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12344","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1e797b032d0cd042","title":"Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital","abstract":"The importance of financial markets and international capital flows has increased greatly since the 1990s. How does this affect the effectiveness of monetary policy? We analyse the transmission of monetary policy in two important financial centres, the United States and the United Kingdom. Studying the responses of mortgage and corporate spreads, we find evidence in favour of an important financial channel in both countries. Our identification strategy allows us to study the effect of movements in the policy instruments and forward guidance, broadly defined. We also analyse international financial spillovers, which we find to be asymmetric. (","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Elena Gerko","Hélène Rey"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx022","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1e7c83f370507fba","title":"The correlated trading and investment performance of individual investors","abstract":"Individual investors learn from experience and herd less in the future. Individual investors tend to trade in the same direction as other individual investors in the same broker branch. The more pronounced an individual investor's herding behavior, the worse his/her investment performance. We find that the limit orders of herding investors have a lower execution ratio, a longer time-to-execution, and a higher probability of being picked up by institutional investors, indicating that their orders are subject to the pick-off risk as they face fierce execution competition and tend to become stale after submissions. Finally, we find that individual investors learn from experience and herd less in the future.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Wei-Yu Kuo","Tse‐Chun Lin","Jing Zhao"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101522","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1e7faaa53a88bac6","title":"Speculative Betas","abstract":"The risk and return trade‐off, the cornerstone of modern asset pricing theory, is often of the wrong sign. Our explanation is that high‐beta assets are prone to speculative overpricing. When investors disagree about the stock market's prospects, high‐beta assets are more sensitive to this aggregate disagreement, experience greater divergence of opinion about their payoffs, and are overpriced due to short‐sales constraints. When aggregate disagreement is low, the Security Market Line is upward‐sloping due to risk‐sharing. When it is high, expected returns can actually decrease with beta. We confirm our theory using a measure of disagreement about stock market earnings.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Harrison Hong","David Sraer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12431","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1e903726771487dc","title":"Incentives in surveys","abstract":"Surveys typically use hypothetical questions to measure subjective and unverifiable concepts like happiness and quality of life. We test whether this is problematic using a large survey experiment on health and subjective well-being. We use Prelec’s Bayesian truth serum to incentivize the experiment and defaults to introduce biases in responses. Without defaults, the data quality was good and incentives had no impact. With defaults, incentives reduced default biases in the subjective well-being questions by inducing participants to spend more effort. Incentives had no impact on the health questions regardless of whether defaults were used.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Han Bleichrodt","Georg D. Granic"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102552","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1e983c665fea8532","title":"Latecomer development in a “greening” world: Introduction to the Special Issue","abstract":"The current transgression of ecological boundaries requires a transformation to a ‘Green Economy’, with rigorous and fast reductions of pollution and resource consumption. Transformative policy reforms towards this aim can lead to economic co-benefits, but they can also be costly, at least for certain economic actors. Furthermore, they can involve trade-offs between current and future wellbeing. Timing and sequencing of reforms is thus far from trivial. More research is needed to inform policymakers in search of the right coping strategies, in particular in economic latecomer countries with persisting poverty and a high need for short-term growth. The main research question of this article is thus: Which economic opportunities arise from orienting economic latecomer strategies towards green technologies and institutions now, versus growing first and cleaning up later? Literature already provides a fair basis of evidence on this question. However, it is biased towards industrialised countries, and towards a subset of green incentives and technologies, such as carbon pricing and renewable energy support. The aim of this article, therefore, is threefold. First and foremost, we review and structure existing evidence and the new evidence provided by this Special Issue along the economic arguments for “greening now” vs. “cleaning up later”. We thus aim to provide an analytical reference point for the growing body of evidence on economic co-benefits of green transformations, helping to structure the debate, to widen its perspective and encourage further research on emerging aspects. Second, we put this structure in the context of latecomer countries, making the identified issues relevant for their framework conditions and showing where and how the articles assembled in the Special Issue fit in the overall debate. Third, we broaden our assessment to include particularly under-researched areas of green transformations in latecomer countries, such as electric mobility, agriculture, steel, and waste management. In reviewing the evidence, we find that early greening is likely to bring economic co-benefits, for example in terms of efficiency-induced competitiveness and in gaining a foothold in the markets of the future. Delaying action, in contrast, risks permanent environmental damage, lock-in of polluting socio-technical pathways, and losses from asset stranding. Yet, the decision between “greening now” and “cleaning up later” is not dichotomous. Careful timing and sequencing of green policy reforms are key, and political decision makers can select and design their national policies in ways that turn changing framework conditions into economic opportunities.","wordCount":393,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Anna Pegels","Tilman Altenburg"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105084","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1eaae84851c8fe8a","title":"Low Wage Returns to Schooling in a Developing Country: Evidence from a Major Policy Reform in Turkey","abstract":"In this paper, we estimate returns to schooling for young men and women in Turkey using the exogenous and substantial variation in schooling across birth cohorts brought about by the 1997 reform of compulsory schooling within a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. We estimate that the return from an extra year of schooling is about 7–8% for women and an imprecisely estimated 2–2.5% for men. The low level of the estimates for men contrasts starkly with those estimated for other developing countries. We identify several reasons why returns to schooling are low for men and why they are higher for women in our context. In particular, the policy alters the schooling distributions of men and women differently, thus the average causal effect puts a higher weight on the causal effect of schooling at higher grade levels for women than for men.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Abdurrahman Aydemir","Murat G. Kïrdar"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12174","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1eacc5a7dd8a8719","title":"High-stakes failures of backward induction","abstract":"We examine high-stakes strategic choice using more than 40 years of data from the American TV game show The Price Is Right. In every episode, contestants play the Showcase Showdown, a sequential game of perfect information for which the optimal strategy can be found through backward induction. We find that contestants systematically deviate from the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. These departures from optimality are well explained by a modified agent quantal response model that allows for limited foresight. The results suggest that many contestants simplify the decision problem by adopting a myopic representation, and optimize their chances of beating the next contestant only. In line with learning, contestants' choices improve over the course of our sample period.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Bouke Klein Teeselink","Dennie van Dolder","Martijn J. van den Assem","Jason Dana"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1eb43b1464d2f4bf","title":"Financial Incentives as Signals: Experimental Evidence from the Recruitment of Village Promoters in Uganda","abstract":"I study the role of financial incentives as signals of job characteristics when these are unknown to potential applicants. To this end, I create experimental variation in expected earnings and use that to estimate the effect of financial incentives on candidates’ perception of a brand-new health-promoter position in Uganda and on the resulting size and composition of the applicant pool. I find that more lucrative positions are perceived as entailing a lower positive externality for the community and discourage agents with strong pro-social preferences from applying. While higher financial incentives attract more applicants and increase the probability of filling a vacancy, the signal they convey reduces the ability to recruit the most socially motivated agents, who are found to stay longer on the job and to perform better.","wordCount":128,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Erika Deserranno"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170670","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1ebbdc01c4721b27","title":"Pay Transparency and Inventor Productivity: Evidence From State‐Level Pay Secrecy Laws","abstract":"We examine the role of pay transparency in inventor productivity by exploiting the staggered adoption of state‐level pay secrecy laws, which enhance pay transparency in the workplace. We find a significant increase in inventor productivity of firms located in states that have passed such laws relative to firms elsewhere. This relation is more pronounced for firms in states with lower levels of pre‐existing pay transparency. We further show that pay secrecy laws promote inventor productivity by motivating inventors—especially minority inventors—to exert more effort, enhancing the diversity of inventor teams, and encouraging all inventors to pursue promotions.","wordCount":96,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Huasheng Gao","Po‐Hsuan Hsu","Jin Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.70005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1ebf2c07fa8432c8","title":"The microeconomics of violent conflict","abstract":"In our brief review, we take stock of the emergence, in the last decade, of the “microeconomics of violent conflict” as a new subfield of empirical development economics. We start by de-bunking common misperceptions about the microeconomics of conflict and identify several contributions to economic theory and, in particular, to empirics, methods and data. We also show how the subfield is enriched through cooperation with scholars working in related disciplines. We expect future work to contribute inter alia to the evidence base on peacebuilding interventions, the development of post-conflict institutions, the behavior of firms in conflict areas and the role of emotions in decision-making. We note a disconnect between the rapidly evolving academic subfield on the one hand and the relatively limited use of knowledge thus generated by humanitarian and development organisations and policy makers working in and on conflict-affected areas. We conclude by suggesting that teaching in economics and the discipline-specific JEL codes have not yet kept pace with this recent intellectual development.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Philip Verwimp","Patrícia Justino","Tilman Brück"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.10.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1ecb3aca27772c2d","title":"Consumer loss aversion and scale-dependent psychological switching costs","abstract":"We consider a model of product differentiation where consumers are uncertain about the qualities and prices of firms' products. They can inspect all products at zero cost. A share of consumers is expectation-based loss averse. For these consumers, buying products of varying quality and price creates disutility from gain-loss sensations. Even at modest degrees of loss aversion they may refrain from inspecting all products and choose an individual default that is strictly dominated in terms of surplus. Firms' strategic behavior exacerbates the scope for this effect. The model generates “scale-dependent psychological switching costs” that increase in the value of the transaction. They imply that making switching easier or costless for consumers would not motivate more switching.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Heiko Karle","Heiner Schumacher","Rune Vølund"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.01.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1ecf83cf58fd77aa","title":"The impact of climate policy on U.S. environmentally friendly firms: A firm-level examination of stock return, volatility, volume, and connectedness","abstract":"This paper investigates the green stock market reaction to climate policy events associated with the Paris Agreement and the U.S. presidential elections. We document abnormal returns, volatility and volume reactions to climate policy events among green stocks. However, the magnitude of the reactions varies between the tightening and loosening of climate policy and across subgroups of the green stock markets. Our connectedness analysis further investigates the spillover patterns among individual green stocks and confirms their heterogeneous natures when responding to the occurrence of these climate policy events. By constructing a minimum connectedness portfolio based on the estimated connectedness among these green stocks, we find that investors can substantially reduce their risks. Our findings have strong implications for policy makers in designing policies to effectively promote green investments and mitigate climate change.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Linh Pham","Wei Hao","Ha Truong","Hai Hong Trinh"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106564","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1ed005f3badfd60e","title":"The changing role of agriculture with economic structural change – The case of China","abstract":"We analyze the implication of structural change to the evolving role of agriculture using China as an example. By combining a growth decomposition exercise with Input-Output (IO) and CGE model analyses using China's seven input-output tables (IOTs) in 1987–2017, the evolving role of the agriculture is quantitatively measured. The growth decomposition analysis shows that between 1978 and 2017, China doubled the size of its total labor force, while the absolute number of agricultural workers falls in this period. Rising labor productivity in agriculture has led to rapid agricultural growth without increasing agricultural employment, allowing agriculture to indirectly contribute to the economywide productivity growth through structural change. The measurement of economic integration using an IO approach helps to explain why China's rapid structural change has been accompanied by similar rapid productivity growth within each sector. The general equilibrium effect of structural change on the evolving role of agriculture is further assessed using two CGE models representing the initial (1987) and end (2017) years of a period of 30 years. Similar agricultural productivity shock induces a smaller economywide gain in 2017 than in 1987 in the CGE models, while the gap in the general equilibrium gain between these two years is much smaller than the difference in agriculture's size of the economy in the two years because of stronger linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy in 2017. About 0.5 unit additional nonagricultural value-added is associated with a unit agricultural value-added increase in 1987, while additional gains in nonagricultural value-added rise to 2.7 unit in 2017. Our analysis of economic integration and implication of structural change to the evolving role of agriculture emphasizes the supply side role for sustainable growth in which agriculture continues to play an important but different role from the past when the demand side effects were stronger. Policies to strengthen supply side linkages have been emphasized in the recent years in China. Exploring further integration between agriculture and the rest of the economy should be part of the new growth strategy.","wordCount":335,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yumei Zhang","Xinshen Diao"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101504","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1ed014e73824eacd","title":"The choice of institutions to solve cooperation problems: a survey of experimental research","abstract":"A growing experimental literature studies the endogenous choice of institutions to solve cooperation problems arising in prisoners’ dilemmas, public goods games, and common pool resource games. Participants in these experiments have the opportunity to influence the rules of the game before they play the game. In this paper, we review the experimental literature of the last 20 years on the choice of institutions and describe what has been learned about the quality and the determinants of institutional choice. Cooperative subjects and subjects with optimistic beliefs about others often vote in favor of the institution. Almost all institutions improve cooperation if they are implemented, but they are not always implemented by the players. Institutional costs, remaining free-riding incentives, and a lack of learning opportunities are identified as the most important barriers. Unresolved cooperation problems, like global climate change, are often characterized by these barriers. The experimental results also show that cooperation tends to be higher under endogenously chosen institutions than exogenously imposed institutions. However, a significant share of players fails to implement the institution and they often perform poorly, which is why we cannot conclude that letting people choose is better than enforcing institutions from outside.","wordCount":195,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Astrid Dannenberg","Carlo Gallier"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09629-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1ed9e00a429e2e52","title":"The Promises and Pitfalls of Robo-Advising","abstract":"We study the introduction of a wealth-management robo-adviser that constructs portfolios tailored to investors’ holdings and preferences. Adopters are similar to non-adopters in terms of demographics and prior interactions with human advisers but tend to be more active and have greater assets under management. Investors adopting robo-advising experience diversification benefits. Ex ante undiversified investors increase stock holdings and hold portfolios with less volatility and better returns. Already well-diversified investors hold fewer stocks, yet see some reduction in volatility, and trade more after adoption. All investors increase attention based on online account logins. We find that adopters exhibit declines in prominent behavioral biases, including the disposition, trend chasing, and rank effect. Our results emphasize the promises and pitfalls of robo-advising tools, which are becoming ubiquitous all over the world.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Francesco D’Acunto","Nagpurnanand Prabhala","Alberto G. Rossi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz014","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1efc427cfeb50276","title":"Ovulatory shift, hormonal changes, and no effects on incentivized decision-making","abstract":"Employing an incentivized controlled lab experiment, we investigate the effects of ovulatory shift on salient behavioral outcomes related to (i) risk preferences, (ii) rule violation, and (iii) exploratory attitude. As evolutionary psychology suggests, these outcomes may play an important role in economic decision-making and represent behavioral aspects that may systematically vary over the menstrual cycle to increase the reproductive success. Exploiting a within-subjects design, 124 naturally cycling females participated in experimental sessions during their ovulation and menstruation, the phases between which the difference in the investigated behavior should be the largest. In each session, hormonal samples for cortisol, estradiol, and testosterone were collected. The group of women was also contrasted against an auxiliary reference group composed of 47 males, who are not subject to hormonal variations of this nature. Our results reveal no systematic behavioral differences between the ovulation and menstruation phases.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Miloš Fišar","Lubomír Cingl","Tommaso Reggiani","Eva Kundtová Klocová","Radek Kundt","Jan Krátký","Katarína Kostolanská","Petra Bencúrová","Marie Pešková","Klára Marečková"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102656","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1f05fe36b1e694b4","title":"Interfirm Relationships and Business Performance","abstract":"We organized business associations for the owner-managers of young Chinese firms to study the effect of business networks on firm performance. We randomized 2,820 firms into small groups whose managers held monthly meetings for one year, and into a \"no-meetings\" control group. We find the following. (i) The meetings increased firm revenue by 8.1%, and also significantly increased profit, factors, inputs, the number of partners, borrowing, and a management score. (ii) These effects persisted one year after the conclusion of the meetings. (iii) Firms randomized to have better peers exhibited higher growth. We exploit additional interventions to document concrete channels. (iv) Managers shared exogenous business-relevant information, particularly when they were not competitors, showing that the meetings facilitated learning from peers. (v) Managers created more business partnerships in the regular than in other one-time meetings, showing that the meetings improved supplier-client matching.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jing Cai","Ádám Szeidl"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Z","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx049","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1f0b181f76a68acf","title":"Financial shocks and inflation dynamics","abstract":"We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the “missing disinflation” during the Great Recession. We apply a Bayesian vector autoregressive model to US data and identify financial shocks through a combination of narrative and short-run sign restrictions. Our main finding is that contractionary financial shocks temporarily increase inflation. This result withstands a large battery of robustness checks. Negative financial shocks help therefore to explain why inflation did not drop more sharply in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that higher borrowing costs after negative financial shocks can account for the modest decrease in inflation after the financial crisis. A policy implication is that financial shocks act as supply-type shocks, moving output and inflation in opposite directions, thereby worsening the trade-off for a central bank with a dual mandate.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Angela Abbate","Sandra Eickmeier","Esteban Prieto"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100521000444","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1f10055d61c4913c","title":"Rationally inattentive preferences and hidden information costs","abstract":"We show how information acquisition costs can be identified using observable choice data. Identifying information costs from behavior is especially relevant when these costs depend on factors—such as time, effort, and cognitive resources—that are difficult to observe directly, as in models of rational inattention. Using willingness-to-pay data for opportunity sets—which require more or less information to make choices—we establish a set of canonical properties that are necessary and sufficient to identify information costs. We also provide an axiomatic characterization of the induced rationally inattentive preferences and show how they reveal the amount of information a decision-maker acquires.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Henrique de Oliveira","Tommaso Denti","Maximilian Mihm","Kemal Ozbek"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2302","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-1f13a6c6f3f4dde5","title":"Political elections uncertainty and earnings management: Does firm size really matter?","abstract":"This study provides evidence on whether political elections uncertainty is associated with firms’ earnings management in election years in 15 European countries, using a sample of 16,868 firm–year observations from 3,096 unique firms in the period 2011–2018. We find that earnings management increases in uncertain political environments. This occurs mostly in years of extreme elections uncertainty as in the case of elections won by a margin of less than 5%, including close calls with a change of the ruling party to a different political spectrum. Firms increase earnings management activity to decrease earnings except in the case of SMEs who behave conversely by increasing earnings, arguably on the basis of increased scrutiny risk.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Tiago Gonçalves","Víctor Barros","Gonçalo Serra"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110438","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1f377416353c0462","title":"Lewis revisited: tropical polities competing on the world market, 1830–1938","abstract":"Since the seminal work by W. A. Lewis, exports of primary products have been deemed the main or sole source of growth in tropical countries before the Great Depression. However, this conventional wisdom relies on very limited evidence. This article analyses the growth of exports with a constant market share analysis for 84 tropical polities. Exports grew a lot, but less than total trade, while relative prices of tropical products remained roughly constant. We thus tentatively infer that the decline in the tropical shares of world trade reflects an insufficient demand for tropical products. Asia dealt well with these headwinds throughout the whole period, while African polities blossomed after the First World War. The loser was (South) America, and most notably the Caribbean former slave colonies, especially before 1870.","wordCount":129,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Giovanni Federico","Antonio Tena Junguito"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12467","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1f525a0209900716","title":"The price discovery role of day traders in futures market: Evidence from different types of day traders","abstract":"Using proprietary account-level transaction data in the futures market where day traders are self-declared ex ante, this study investigates whether day traders enhance price discovery at the market level. From a natural classification of day traders, we find that heterogeneous day traders have differential effects on price discovery. Self-declared day traders, who benefit from low margin requirement, do not improve price discovery measured by information share. In contrast, non-declared traders, who are not self-declared as day traders, improve price discovery. Their positive impacts on price discovery are particularly significant during periods of high volatility and arrival of new information. Overall, a margin stimulating policy may encourage more day trading, but may also attract overconfident investors, especially inexperienced ones, and who do not enhance price discovery.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Scott Fung","Shih-Chuan Tsai"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.08.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1f73013f456aaaff","title":"A New Unit Root Test for Unemployment Hysteresis Based on the Autoregressive Neural Network","abstract":"This paper proposes a nonlinear unit root test based on the autoregressive neural network process for testing unemployment hysteresis. In this new unit root testing framework, the linear, quadratic and cubic components of the neural network process are used to capture the nonlinearity in a given time series data. The theoretical properties of the test are developed, while the size and the power properties are examined in a Monte Carlo simulation study. Various empirical applications with unemployment and inflation rates across a number of countries are carried out at the end of the article.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["OlaOluwa S. Yaya","Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna","Fumitaka Furuoka","Luis A. Gil-Alaña"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12422","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1f740cc371fcb1f6","title":"Tuskegee and the Health of Black Men","abstract":"I14, O15 For forty years, the Tuskegee Study of Untreated Syphilis in the Negro Male passively monitored hundreds of adult black males with syphilis despite the availability of effective treatment. The study's methods have become synonymous with exploitation and mistreatment by the medical profession. To identify the study's effects on the behavior and health of older black men, we use an interacted difference-in-difference-in-differences model, comparing older black men to other demographic groups, before and after the Tuskegee revelation, in varying proximity to the study's victims. We find that the disclosure of the study in 1972 is correlated with increases in medical mistrust and mortality and decreases in both outpatient and inpatient physician interactions for older black men. Our estimates imply life expectancy at age 45 for black men fell by up to 1.5 years in response to the disclosure, accounting for approximately 35% of the 1980 life expectancy gap between black and white men and 25% of the gap between black men and women.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Marcella Alsan","Marianne Wanamaker"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx029","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1f8cc3da06e898de","title":"Academic achievement and wellbeing of dual language learners: Evidence from a busing program","abstract":"We exploit exogenous variation from a school desegregation policy to investigate the determinants of academic achievement and wellbeing of dual language learners. The policy buses some school starters with low host-country language proficiency from schools with many dual language learners, higher total budget for dual language learning and higher per-pupil spending to schools with fewer dual language learners but lower total budget for dual language learning and per-pupil spending. Assignment to busing is exogenous conditional on three observed individual characteristics, hence we compare bused and non-bused pupils conditional on these characteristics. We find that assignment to forced busing has a negative effect on the academic performance and wellbeing of dual language learners, which is at odds with findings for school desegregation in the US.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Anna Piil Damm","Elena Mattana","Helena Skyt Nielsen","Bénédicte Rouland"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103358","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1fa68ab97b97a867","title":"The disutility of commuting? The effect of gender and local labor markets","abstract":"Standard economic theory postulates that commuting is a choice behavior undertaken when compensated through either lower rents or greater amenities in the housing market or through higher wages in the labor market. By exploiting exogenous shocks to commuting time, this paper investigates the impact on well-being of increased commuting. Ceteris paribus, exogenous increases in commuting time are expected to lower well-being. We find this holds for women but not men. This phenomenon can be explained, in part, by the different labor markets in which women operate. Where local labor markets are thin, women report significantly lower well-being when faced with an increased commute. This does not hold for tight local labor markets. Further our findings reveal that it is full-time working women in the managerial and professional tier of the occupational hierarchy who are most affected. These results suggest that the policy solution for reducing the adverse effects of commuting may require changes to labor market institutions rather than changes to transport policy.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Nikita Jacob","Luke Munford","Nigel Rice","Jennifer Roberts"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1fb68a9fb38fe3ef","title":"How Transparency Kills Information Aggregation: Theory and Experiment","abstract":"We investigate the potential of transparency to influence committee decision-making. We present a model in which career concerned committee members receive private information of different type-dependent accuracy, deliberate, and vote. We study three levels of transparency under which career concerns are predicted to affect behavior differently and test the model's key predictions in a laboratory experiment. The model's predictions are largely borne out—transparency negatively affects information aggregation at the deliberation and voting stages, leading to sharply different committee error rates than under secrecy. This occurs despite subjects revealing more information under transparency than theory predicts.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Sebastian Fehrler","Niall Hughes"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160046","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1fb8f1aba214b1f5","title":"Who benefits from public financing of home-based long term care? Evidence from Medicaid","abstract":"Due to population aging , the number of people needing long-term care is growing, and an increasing number of people are receiving this care at home, rather than in nursing homes. This trend has been driven in part by Medicaid, which has significantly increased public financing of formal home care over the past few decades. Using the 2000–2016 Health and Retirement Study and a difference-in-difference and triple-difference design, I investigate the effects of a Medicaid policy adopted in over half of states that increased formal home care utilization among low-income older adults by more than 50%. I show that the policy mainly replaces informal care, particularly from spouses and daughters. For daughters, there is an accompanying increase in labor supply: for approximately every three daughters whose parent receives formal home care due to the policy, one additional daughter works full-time.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Karen Shen"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105151","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1fb9ff75460c38b8","title":"Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data","abstract":"This paper combines income tax returns with macroeconomic household balance sheets to estimate the distribution of wealth in the United States since 1913. We estimate wealth by capitalizing the incomes reported by individual taxpayers, accounting for assets that do not generate taxable income. We successfully test our capitalization method in three micro datasets where we can observe both income and wealth: the Survey of Consumer Finance, linked estate and income tax returns, and foundations’ tax records. We find that wealth concentration was high in the beginning of the twentieth century, fell from 1929 to 1978, and has continuously increased since then. The top 0.1% wealth share has risen from 7% in 1978 to 22% in 2012, a level almost as high as in 1929. Top wealth-holders are younger today than in the 1960s and earn a higher fraction of the economy’s labor income. The bottom 90% wealth share first increased up to the mid-1980s and then steadily declined. The increase in wealth inequality in recent decades is due to the upsurge of top incomes combined with an increase in saving rate inequality. We explain how our findings can be reconciled with Survey of Consumer Finances and estate tax data.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Emmanuel Saez","Gabriel Zucman"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1fba684db3c25553","title":"Monetary policy, investment and firm heterogeneity","abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy transmission combining 9 million observations on firm level investment and high-frequency identified monetary policy shocks. We show that the reaction of firms’ investment to a monetary policy shock is heterogeneous along dimensions that correspond to the two main channels of monetary policy transmission. First, we show that young firms are more sensitive to monetary policy shocks and that high leverage amplifies the effects, supporting the existence of a credit channel of monetary policy. Second, we document large cross-sectional heterogeneity related to the industry the firm operates in. We find that firms producing durable goods react more than others, which is consistent with traditional interest rate channel effects of monetary policy. Furthermore, this sectoral effect is longer lived. In line with the demand effects of the interest rate channel, we also provide evidence that sales growth of durables producing firms reacts stronger to a monetary policy shock.","wordCount":157,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Elena Durante","Annalisa Ferrando","Philip Vermeulen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104251","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-1fbe7c078269ff39","title":"Technical barriers to trade and export performance: Comparing exiting and staying firms","abstract":"Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) present a major challenge to exporters and policymakers. Prior studies have shown that TBTs induce the exit of exporters, but little is known about the differences of subsequent export performance between exiting and staying firms. We investigate the case of Chinese firms suffering TBT shocks in the US market with the PSM-DID method. The results show that exiting firms gain higher export growth than staying firms by exploring new markets more extensively and exploiting other existing markets more intensively. Besides, we also find that staying firms gain higher prices and higher quality than exiting firms by conforming to the higher standards after TBT shocks. Our findings suggest that exporters can survive tough TBT shocks by optimizing within-firm reallocations of resources across markets and products.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Wei Hao","Yue Tu","Peng Zhou"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106439","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1fc7008ebe69a7f6","title":"Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers","abstract":"The domestic and international transmission mechanism of fiscal policy shocks are analysed in the United States and in Germany.Using a Bayesian VAR approach, we find that in both of these countries a fiscal expansion is associated with increases in output as well as in private consumption and investment.The terms of trade, which affect the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks, depreciate in response to a fiscal expansion, thus transferring some of the increased domestic purchasing power abroad.A US government spending shock is expansionary for all non-US G7 members.A German government spending shock is expansionary for most, but not all European economies, both within and outside the euro area.The dynamics of the BVAR can be rationalised using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous households and firms face borrowing constraints.","wordCount":130,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Ayobami E. Ilori","Juan Páez‐Farrell","Christoph Thoenissen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103969","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-1fc87387bc2f8bd2","title":"Making Case-Based Decision Theory Directly Observable","abstract":"Case-based decision theory (CBDT) provided a new way of revealing preferences, with decisions under uncertainty determined by similarities with cases in memory. This paper introduces a method to measure CBDT that requires no commitment to parametric families and that relates directly to decisions. Thus, CBDT becomes directly observable and can be used in prescriptive applications. Two experiments on real estate investments demonstrate the feasibility of our method. Our implementation of real incentives not only avoids the income effect, but also avoids interactions between different memories. We confirm CBDT's predictions except for one violation of separability of cases in memory.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Han Bleichrodt","Martin Filko","Amit Kothiyal","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150172","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1fcb8ce94bc6a2ba","title":"Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach","abstract":"Many policymakers view power outages as a major constraint on firm productivity in developing countries. Yet empirical studies find modest short-run effects of outages on firm performance. This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model to study the long-run general-equilibrium effects of power outages on productivity. Outages lower productivity in the model by creating idle resources, depressing the scale of incumbent firms and reducing entry of new firms. Consistent with the empirical literature, the model predicts small short-run effects of eliminating outages. However, the long-run general-equilibrium effects are much larger, supporting the view that eliminating outages is an important development objective.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Stephie Fried","David Lagakos"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210248","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-1fd9a64f87c530e4","title":"Overlapping Ownership, R&D Spillovers, and Antitrust Policy","abstract":"This paper considers cost-reducing R&D investment with spillovers in a Cournot oligopoly with overlapping ownership. We show that overlapping ownership leads to internalization of rivals' profits by firms and find that, for demand not too convex, increases in overlapping ownership increase (decrease) R&D and output for high (low) enough spillovers while they increase R&D but decrease output for intermediate levels of spillovers. There is scope for overlapping ownership to improve welfare and consumer surplus, provided that spillovers are sufficiently large. The results obtained are robust when R&D has commitment value and in a Bertrand oligopoly model with product differentiation.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Ángel L. López","Xavier Vives"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701811","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-2001244ec77dc12e","title":"Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market","abstract":"The slope factor is constructed from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons and predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster policy easing positively predicts returns. It contains information about the speed of future monetary policy tightening and loosening, and predicts changes in interest rates and forecast revisions of professional forecasters. The tone of speeches by FOMC members correlates with the slope factor. The predictive power concentrates in times of high uncertainty in line with the pre-FOMC announcement drift. Our findings show the path of interest rates matters for asset prices, and monetary policy affects asset prices continuously.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Andreas Neuhierl","Michael Weber"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-201a21709120f965","title":"Broadening Benefits from Natural Resource Extraction: Housing Values and Taxation of Natural Gas Wells as Property","abstract":"We study the effects of the property tax base shock caused by natural gas drilling in the Barnett Shale in Texas—a state that taxes oil and gas wells as property. Over the boom and bust in drilling, housing appreciation closely followed the oil and gas property tax base, which expanded the total tax base by 23 percent at its height. The expansion led to a decline in property tax rates while maintaining or increasing revenues to schools. Overall, each $1 per student increase in the oil and gas property tax base increased the value of the typical home by $0.15. Some evidence suggests that the cumulative density of wells nearby may lower housing values, indicating that drilling could reduce local welfare without policies to increase local public revenues.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jeremy G. Weber","J. Wesley Burnett","Irene M. Xiarchos"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21911","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-20212808e40d6310","title":"Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration","abstract":"In this article, I jointly investigate the political and the economic effects of immigration, and study the causes of anti-immigrant sentiments. I exploit exogenous variation in European immigration to U.S. cities between 1910 and 1930 induced by World War I and the Immigration Acts of the 1920s, and instrument immigrants’ location decision relying on pre-existing settlement patterns. I find that immigration triggered hostile political reactions, such as the election of more conservative legislators, higher support for anti-immigration legislation, and lower redistribution. Exploring the causes of natives’ backlash, I document that immigration increased natives’ employment, spurred industrial production, and did not generate losses even among natives working in highly exposed sectors. These findings suggest that opposition to immigration was unlikely to have economic roots. Instead, I provide evidence that natives’ political discontent was increasing in the cultural differences between immigrants and natives. Results in this article indicate that, even when diversity is economically beneficial, it may nonetheless be socially hard to manage.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Marco Tabellini"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:37326940","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20249a9907d37ba7","title":"China's urban poor – Comparing twice poverty between residents and migrants in 2013 and 2018","abstract":"Using data from the China Household Income Project in 2013 and 2018, this paper studies relative poverty among rural hukou holders living in urban China and urban hukou holders. People living in households with an income below a fixed percent of the median per-capita income and wealth below the same fixed percent of the median per-capita wealth among urban residents are deemed as relative poor. Although migrants with rural hukou living in urban China were more prone to twice poverty than urban residents in 2013, this was not generally the case in 2018. A multivariate analysis shows several factors to be related to the probability of being twice relative poor. Even considering these factors, a rural hukou status increased the probability of being twice relative poor in 2013. In contrast, such an excess risk of being twice relative poor was much lesser outspoken in middle and low-ranking cities in 2018. However, rural to urban migrants living in high-ranking cities had a somewhat higher risk of being relative poor than urban residents with the same characteristics in 2018.","wordCount":177,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Björn Gustafsson","Ding Sai"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.102012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20318cf75ffc8d81","title":"Vertical Mergers and Input Foreclosure Lessons from the AT&T/Time Warner Case","abstract":"This article offers a practical guide to analyzing vertical mergers using the general approach to input foreclosure and raising rivals’ costs that is described in the 2020 Vertical Merger Guidelines that were issued by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. The step-by-step analysis described here draws lessons from how that theory of harm played out in the lone vertical merger case that has been litigated by the antitrust agencies in recent decades: the 2018 challenge by the Department of Justice to the merger between AT&T and Time Warner. I testified in court as the DOJ’s economic expert in that case. I explain here how to quantify the increase in rivals’ costs and the elimination of double marginalization that are caused by a vertical merger and how to evaluate their net effect on downstream customers. I also explain how this economic analysis fits into the three-step burden-shifting approach that the courts apply to mergers under Section 7 of the Clayton Act. Based on my experience in the AT&T/Time Warner case, I identify a number of shortcomings of the 2020 Vertical Merger Guidelines.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Carl Shapiro"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09826-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2033128961b11c58","title":"Technological change, campaign spending and polarization","abstract":"We present a model of electoral competition with endogenous platforms and campaign spending where the division of voters between impressionable and ideological is also endogenous and depends on parties’ strategic platform choices. Our approach results in a tractable model that provides interesting comparative statics on the effect of recent technological advancements. For instance, we can accommodate a new justification behind the well-documented simultaneous increase in campaign spending and polarization: an increase in the effectiveness of electoral advertising, or a decrease in the electorate’s political awareness, surely increases polarization and may also increase campaign spending.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Pau Balart","Agustín Casas","Orestis Troumpounis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104666","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-203d6a631649251c","title":"Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles","abstract":"Employing the universe of juvenile court decisions in a US state between 1996 and 2012, we analyze the effects of emotional shocks associated with unexpected outcomes of football games played by a prominent college team in the state. We find that unexpected losses increase sentence lengths assigned by judges during the week following the game. Unexpected wins, or losses that were expected to be close contests ex ante have no impact. The effects of these emotional shocks are asymmetrically borne by black defendants. The impact of upset losses on sentence lengths is larger for defendants if their cases are handled by judges who received their bachelor's degrees from the university with which the football team is affiliated. Different falsification tests and a number of auxiliary analyses demonstrate the robustness of the findings. These results provide evidence for the impact of emotions in one domain on decisions in a completely unrelated domain among a uniformly highly educated group of individuals (judges) who make decisions after deliberation that involve high stakes (sentence lengths). They also point to the existence of a subtle and previously unnoticed capricious application of sentencing.","wordCount":187,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Özkan Eren","Naci Mocan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160390","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-203f26b0dd209604","title":"Private equity and human capital risk","abstract":"We study the human capital effects of private equity buyouts in Germany. We conduct matched-sample difference-in-differences estimations at the establishment and at the individual employee level with more than 152 thousand buyout employees and a carefully matched control group. Buyouts are followed by a reduction in overall employment and an increase in employee turnover. Employees of buyout targets experience earnings declines equivalent to 2.8% of median earnings in the fifth year after the buyout. Managers and older employees fare far worse after buyouts compared with the average target employee, even though they are not more likely to lose their jobs at the target compared with other employees. We argue that the employees most negatively affected after buyouts are those who are less likely to find new employment, not those who are most likely to lose their jobs. Evidence exists of a reduction in administrative staff and more hiring for jobs that require IT skills.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Manfred Antoni","Ernst Maug","Stefan Obernberger"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.04.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-203f7173d115521f","title":"Adopt or Innovate: Understanding Technological Responses to Cap-and-Trade","abstract":"One important motivation for creating cap-and-trade programs for carbon emissions is the expectation that they will stimulate much-needed low-carbon innovation. I construct a new panel of British firms to investigate this hypothesis, finding that the European carbon market has encouraged greater low-carbon patenting and R&D spending among regulated firms without necessarily driving short-term reductions in carbon intensity of output. This stands in contrast to past cap-and-trade programs, which have primarily spurred adoption of existing pollution control technologies, with little effect on innovation. I discuss how to reconcile these contrasting findings and implications for the future of carbon markets.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Raphael Calel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180135","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2043c019981e0579","title":"Coal Smoke and Mortality in an Early Industrial Economy","abstract":"Air pollution was severe in the nineteenth century, yet its health consequences are often overlooked due to a lack of pollution data. We offer a new approach for inferring local coal use levels based on local industrial structure and industry‐specific coal use intensity. This allows us to provide the first estimates of the mortality effects of British industrial coal use in 1851–60. Exploiting wind patterns for identification, we find that a one standard deviation increase in coal use raised infant mortality by 6–8% and that industrial coal use explains roughly one‐third of the urban mortality penalty observed during this period.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Brian Beach","W. Walker Hanlon"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12522","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2045db5306ad6c51","title":"Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration","abstract":"We propose a bootstrap autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) test. By applying the appropriate bootstrap method, some weaknesses underlying the Pesaran, Shin and Smith ARDL bounds test are addressed including size and power properties and the elimination of inconclusive inferences. In addition, inferences based solely on the significance of the F-test and single t-test from the ARDL bounds test are not sufficient to avoid degenerate cases. The bootstrap ARDL test provides an additional test on the significance of coefficients on lagged levels of the regressors, which provides a better insight into the cointegration status of the model.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Robert McNown","Chung Yan Sam","Soo Khoon Goh"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1366643","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-205bf8e92ca74c1e","title":"Viewpoint: Water, agriculture & poverty in an era of climate change: Why do we know so little?","abstract":"Understanding the complex relationship between water, agriculture and poverty (WAP) is essential for informed policy-making in light of increasing demand for scarce water resources and greater climatic variability. Yet, our understanding of the WAP nexus remains surprisingly undeveloped and dispersed across multiple disciplines due to conceptual (biophysical and economic) and measurement issues. We argue that water for agriculture will need to be better managed for it to contribute to reductions in poverty and vulnerabilities. Moreover, this management will need to consider not just quantities of water, but the quality of the water and the multiple agricultural and non-agricultural uses. For this reason, expanding research in WAP needs to involve interdisciplinary efforts. We identify three key knowledge gaps in WAP that are particularly pressing in light of greater climatic variability. These are climate change adaptation, over-abstraction of groundwater, and water quality.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Soumya Balasubramanya","David Stifel"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101905","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2064f077e14e9432","title":"An equilibrium market power model for power markets and tradable green certificates, including Kirchhoff's Laws and Nash-Cournot competition","abstract":"We investigate the economic impacts of introducing tradable green certificates to promote electricity produced from renewable energy sources. We formulate a mixed complementarity, multi-region, partial equilibrium model, clearing both the electricity and green certificate markets under the assumption of Nash-Cournot market competition. We introduce a mixed complementarity formulation of the tradable green certificate policy scheme. The main contribution of this paper is to combine a public support scheme for electricity production with a power market model in which strategic generators compete and exercise market power in a capacitated transmission network with spatial energy exchange. Any policy instrument interfering with the free market solution in a partial equilibrium model will reduce social welfare as a result of deadweight losses from the policy. These welfare losses may be substantial. We show that losses from tradable green certificates influence different market actors depending on the market conditions, but existing firms are likely to bear most of these losses. In markets with Cournot competition, where producers act strategically, green certificates help to increase market competition if new firms are able to enter the market. Existing firms will not be motivated to compete with new generation capacity. The consumer surplus from introducing tradable green certificates under Cournot competition may increase, despite the deadweight losses the policy incurs.","wordCount":212,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Per Ivar Helgesen","Asgeir Tomasgård"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-206a59b197fd703e","title":"The Effects of Deregulating Retail Operating Hours: Empirical Evidence from Italy","abstract":"We estimate the impact of deregulating shop hours on the structure of the retail sector and the size and composition of its labor force. To identify the effect of interest, we exploit the staggered implementation of a reform that allowed Italian municipalities to adopt fully flexible operating hours in the late 1990s. Our findings indicate that lifting restrictions on hours increased retail employment by 2.4 percent and increased the number of shops in the affected municipalities by 1.8 percent. In combination with estimates using individual-level data, our results further suggest that retail employment grew more in larger retail operations, with a corresponding movement of the labor force toward permanent employees and away from the self-employed.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Lucia Rizzica","Giacomo Roma","Gabriele Rovigatti"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722476","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-206dbb5ca1d52e38","title":"Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration","abstract":"We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.","wordCount":77,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Alejandro Graziano","Kyle Handley","Nuno Limão"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/5019983","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20750e29b2093ab5","title":"Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study","abstract":"Understanding and improving reproducibility is crucial for scientific progress. Prediction markets and related methods of eliciting peer beliefs are promising tools to predict replication outcomes. We invited researchers in the field of psychology to judge the replicability of 24 studies replicated in the large scale Many Labs 2 project. We elicited peer beliefs in prediction markets and surveys about two replication success metrics: the probability that the replication yields a statistically significant effect in the original direction (p < 0.001), and the relative effect size of the replication. The prediction markets correctly predicted 75% of the replication outcomes, and were highly correlated with the replication outcomes. Survey beliefs were also significantly correlated with replication outcomes, but had larger prediction errors. The prediction markets for relative effect sizes attracted little trading and thus did not work well. The survey beliefs about relative effect sizes performed better and were significantly correlated with observed relative effect sizes. The results suggest that replication outcomes can be predicted and that the elicitation of peer beliefs can increase our knowledge about scientific reproducibility and the dynamics of hypothesis testing.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Eskil Forsell","Domenico Viganola","Thomas Pfeiffer","Johan Almenberg","Brad Wilson","Yiling Chen","Brian A. Nosek","Magnus Johannesson","Anna Dreber"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.10.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2075bf198c2a6053","title":"Optimal persuasion via bi‐pooling","abstract":"Mean‐preserving contractions are critical for studying Bayesian models of information design. We introduce the class of bi‐pooling policies , and the class of bi‐pooling distributions as their induced distributions over posteriors. We show that every extreme point in the set of all mean‐preserving contractions of any given prior over an interval takes the form of a bi‐pooling distribution. By implication, every Bayesian persuasion problem with an interval state space admits an optimal bi‐pooling distribution as a solution, and conversely, for every bi‐pooling distribution, there is a Bayesian persuasion problem for which that distribution is the unique solution.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Itai Arieli","Yakov Babichenko","Rann Smorodinsky","Takuro Yamashita"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4663","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-207ed1399044e3c0","title":"Debauchery and Original Sin: The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt","abstract":"We present a model that accounts for the “mystery of original sin” and the surge in local-currency borrowing by emerging economies in the recent decade. We quantitatively investigate the currency composition of sovereign debt in the presence of two types of limited enforcement frictions arising from a government's monetary and debt policy: strategic currency debasement and default on sovereign debt. Local-currency debt obligations act as a better consumption hedge against income shocks than foreign-currency debt because their real value can be affected by monetary policy. However, this provides a government with more temptation to deviate from disciplined monetary policy, thus restricting borrowing in local currency more than in foreign currency. Our model predicts that a country with a less credible monetary policy borrows mainly in foreign currency as a substitute for monetary credibility. An important extension demonstrates that in the presence of an expectational Phillips curve, local-currency debt improves the ability of monetary policymakers to commit.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Charles Engel","Jungjae Park"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac009","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-20908f9363ce3d4c","title":"Credit constraints and labor supply: Evidence from bank branching deregulation","abstract":"This paper examines labor supply adjustment‐both at the intensive and extensive margins‐following financial market development. Specifically, we exploit the staggered passage of bank branching deregulation in the United State to study the impact of relaxing credit constraints on labor supply decisions. We find strong evidence that improvements in how credit markets function decrease weekly hours worked, and that the effect is most significant for the lower‐middle (marginal) income group. Furthermore, we observe heterogeneous responses across demo graphic groups (race and income). In contrast, we find little to no evidence that deregulation has a significant impact on the extensive margin of participation.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Kien Dao Bui","Ejindu S. Ume"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12823","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-20937af6c699ebe5","title":"Political institutions, resources, and war: Theory and evidence from ancient Rome","abstract":"How does a governing coalition’s size affect the extent and type of violence in society? The model developed here predicts that larger coalitions are less likely to fight for private goods (e.g., plunder) than for public goods (e.g., defense), yet this substitution need not reduce the overall scale of fighting. That prediction is tested by investigating how Rome’s transition from Republic to Empire affected military patterns. The raw data and three empirical tests suggest that the Republic engaged in more battles overall and that Republican battles had more of a public goods component. This study furthers our empirical knowledge about the ancient world while bringing data to bear on contemporary debates about the causes of peace and war.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jordan Adamson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101324","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20987cc2f645d581","title":"Social preferences and political attitudes: An online experiment on a large heterogeneous sample","abstract":"This paper investigates in a large and heterogeneous sample the relationship between social preferences and political attitudes. Social preferences relate to political attitudes in a particular way: Selfish subjects are the extremists on the one side of the political spectrum – they are more likely to vote for a right-wing party, less inclined to favor redistribution, less likely to hold favorable views towards immigration and more likely to consider themselves right-wing than all other types. Inequality-averse, altruistic and maximin subjects, all characterized by benevolence in the domain of advantageous inequality, sit at the opposite end of the spectrum. Overall, our evidence indicates that political outcomes in various domains such as taxation, social security, the pension system or immigration cannot be fully understood without taking distributional preferences into account.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Rudolf Kerschbamer","Daniel Müller"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104076","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20993aca7e4d7939","title":"The Effect of University Fees on Applications, Attendance and Course Choice: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in the UK","abstract":"Over the past two decades, large changes have been introduced to the level of university fees in the UK, with significant variation across countries. This paper exploits this variation to examine the effect of fees on university applications, attendance and course choice. It finds that applications decrease in response to higher fees with an elasticity of demand of about −0.4. Attendance also decreases. The reduction in applications and attendance is larger for courses with lower salaries and employment rates after graduation, for non‐STEM subjects, and for less selective universities.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Filipa Sá"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12278","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-20a275e0f25c9232","title":"The Effects of World War I on the Chinese Textile Industry: Was the World’s Trouble China’s Opportunity?","abstract":"This paper uses an unexpected trade disruption due to World War I to study how a temporary reduction of imports affects the entry of industrial firms. I construct a new transportation network to capture counties’ exposure to this trade shock and compile panel data to examine the impact on China’s manufactured textile industry. I find that counties with greater prewar exposure to international trade experienced more firm entry after the war. The effect was delayed because the war simultaneously hindered machinery imports. Better access to finance also contributed to firm entry after the trade shock.","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Cong Liu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000858","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-20a5610c23a280f1","title":"GSIB status and corporate lending","abstract":"Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) face additional capital requirements and closer supervision. We study how closer supervision affects corporate credit supply and investigate consequences for firms. GSIB designations reduce lending on average by 5.9% but to risky firms by 7.2%. The consequences are lower asset, sales, and investment growth, especially among high-risk borrowers, and reduced R&D expenditures among all GSIB-dependent firms. Closer supervision therefore reduces banks' risk-taking but has potentially unintended implications for firms' ability to finance innovation, which seems to crucially depend on bank credit. The supervision-induced effects are larger than those attributed to GSIB-specific capital surcharges.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Hans Degryse","Mike Mariathasan","Hien T. Tang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102362","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-20a98374cc636af0","title":"Migrants’ self‐selection in the early stages of modern economic growth, Spain (1880–1930)","abstract":"Drawing on a large database from the register of inhabitants of Madrid, this article confirms that the literacy levels of internal migrants moving to the Spanish capital city in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century were higher than that of those who remained in their provinces of origin. This article also explores the different factors influencing the nature and intensity of the selection process. The empirical exercise stresses that the stock of previous migration was a fundamental factor in allowing less literate individuals to join the migration process as well. Interestingly, distance to Madrid hardly affected the profile of male migrants, but it was a strong influence on female migration, although its importance diminished over time. Lastly, the results presented here show that other internal destinations were attracting different types of migrants, often resulting in negative self‐selection.","wordCount":138,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia","Santiago de Miguel Salanova"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12332","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-20ab336e83f7086b","title":"Best-response dynamics in two-person random games with correlated payoffs","abstract":"We consider finite two-player normal form games with random payoffs. Player A's payoffs are i.i.d. from a uniform distribution. Given p∈[0,1], for any action profile, player B's payoff coincides with player A's payoff with probability p and is i.i.d. from the same uniform distribution with probability 1−p. This model interpolates the model of i.i.d. random payoff used in most of the literature and the model of random potential games. First we study the number of pure Nash equilibriums in the above class of games. Then we show that, for any positive p, asymptotically in the number of available actions, best response dynamics reaches a pure Nash equilibrium with high probability.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Hlafo Alfie Mimun","Matteo Quattropani","Marco Scarsini"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.03.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20b086851480b760","title":"The kids are alright - labour market effects of unexpected parental hospitalisations in the Netherlands","abstract":"Unexpected negative health shocks of a parent may reduce adult children's labour supply via informal caregiving and stress-induced mental health problems. We link administrative data on labour market outcomes, hospitalisations and family relations for the full Dutch working age population for the years 1999-2008 to evaluate the effect of an unexpected parental hospitalisation on the probability of employment and on conditional earnings. Using an event study difference-in-differences model combined with coarsened exact matching and individual fixed effects, we find no effect of an unexpected parental hospitalisation on either employment or earnings for Dutch men and women, and neither for the full population nor for the subpopulations most likely to become caregivers. These findings suggest that the extensive public coverage of formal long-term care in the Netherlands combined with widespread acceptance of part-time work provides sufficient opportunities to deal with adverse health events of family members without having to compromise one's labour supply.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Sara Rellstab","Pieter Bakx","Pilar García‐Gómez","Eddy van Doorslaer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102275","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-20b0f6cf47f46de8","title":"WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms","abstract":"We examine the effects of trade liberalization in China on the evolution of markups and productivity of manufacturing firms. Although these dimensions of performance cannot be separately identified when firm output is measured by revenue, detailed price deflators make it possible to estimate the average effect of tariff reductions on both. Several novel findings emerge. First, cuts in output tariffs reduce markups, but raise productivity. Second, pro-competitive effects are most important among incumbents, while efficiency gains dominate for new entrants. Third, cuts in input tariffs raise both markups and productivity. We highlight mechanisms that explain these findings in the Chinese context.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Loren Brandt","Johannes Van Biesebroeck","Luhang Wang","Yifan Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20121266","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-20bc4bda274c5e4c","title":"The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?","abstract":"Standard New Keynesian models predict that expansionary fiscal policy is inflationary. In contrast, this paper presents empirical evidence that prices do not increase in response to a positive government spending shock. Instead, the response of prices is flat or even negative. This finding is robust across a wide range of specifications of our Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and across different price indices. The puzzling response of prices is accompanied by an increase in output and private consumption, as found in most of the existing literature, as well as an increase in Total Factor Productivity. We show that the introduction of variable technology utilization can enable an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to account for our empirical findings. The model implies that the government spending multiplier is substantially lower when the economy is in a fundamental liquidity trap, as compared to normal times, in contrast to the predictions of standard New Keynesian models.","wordCount":153,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Peter Lihn Jørgensen","Søren Hove Ravn"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103982","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-20c567fefad0a743","title":"The chained difference-in-differences","abstract":"This paper studies the identification, estimation, and inference of long-term (binary) treatment effect parameters when balanced panel data is not available, or consists of only a subset of the available data. We develop a new estimator: the chained difference-in-differences, which leverages the overlapping structure of many unbalanced panel data sets. This approach consists in aggregating a collection of short-term treatment effects estimated on multiple incomplete panels. Our estimator accommodates (1) multiple time periods, (2) variation in treatment timing, (3) treatment effect heterogeneity, (4) general missing data patterns, and (5) sample selection on observables. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and discuss identification and efficiency gains in comparison to existing methods. Finally, we illustrate its relevance through (i) numerical simulations, and (ii) an application about the effects of an innovation policy in France.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Christophe Bellégo","David Benatia","Vincent Dortet‐Bernadet"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105783","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-20d08262c819b5cb","title":"Behavioral welfare economics and risk preferences: a Bayesian approach","abstract":"We propose the use of Bayesian estimation of risk preferences of individuals for applications of behavioral welfare economics to evaluate observed choices that involve risk. Bayesian estimation provides more systematic control of the use of informative priors over inferences about risk preferences for each individual in a sample. We demonstrate that these methods make a difference to the rigorous normative evaluation of decisions in a case study of insurance purchases. We also show that hierarchical Bayesian methods can be used to infer welfare reliably and efficiently even with significantly reduced demands on the number of choices that each subject has to make. Finally, we illustrate the natural use of Bayesian methods in the adaptive evaluation of welfare.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Xiaoxue Sherry Gao","Glenn W. Harrison","Rusty Tchernis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-022-09751-0","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-20e44d8b69442834","title":"Paving Streets for the Poor: Experimental Analysis of Infrastructure Effects","abstract":"We provide the first experimental estimation of the effects of the supply of publicly financed urban infrastructure on property values. Using random allocation of first-time street asphalting of residential streets located in peripheral neighborhoods in Mexico, we show that within two years of the intervention, households are able to transform their increased property wealth into significantly larger rates of vehicle ownership, household appliances, and home improvements. Increased consumption is made possible by both credit use and less saving. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that the valuation of street asphalting as capitalized into property values is about as large as construction costs.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Marco Gonzalez-Navarro","Climent Quintana‐Domeque"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4br6g7pr","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20e615914718353a","title":"Censorship as optimal persuasion","abstract":"We consider a Bayesian persuasion problem where a sender's utility depends only on the expected state. We show that upper censorship that pools the states above a cutoff and reveals the states below the cutoff is optimal for all prior distributions of the state if and only if the sender's marginal utility is quasi‐concave. Moreover, we show that it is optimal to reveal less information if the sender becomes more risk averse or the sender's utility shifts to the left. Finally, we apply our results to the problem of media censorship by a government.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Anton Kolotilin","Timofiy Mylovanov","Andriy Zapechelnyuk"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4071","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-20e74f4a8951c49d","title":"Tail dependence between bitcoin and green financial assets","abstract":"The high power consumption of Bitcoin transactions has raised environmental and sustainable concerns of green investors and regulatory bodies. We utilize the time-varying optimal copula (TVOC) approach to showcase the dependence structure between bitcoin and green financial assets. We find multiple tail-dependence regimes characterize the extreme dependence between bitcoin and green financial assets, and the dependence structure is mainly asymmetric and time-varying. Finally, the hedging effectiveness of green financial assets for bitcoin revealed that all green assets, especially clean energy, are effective hedges for bitcoin.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Muhammad Abubakr Naeem","Sitara Karim"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110068","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-20f4156708c2fa3f","title":"Nudging: An experiment on transparency, accounting for reactance and response time","abstract":"Is being informed about a nudge detrimental to its effect? This paper reports results from an experimental online study testing the effects of transparency on the effectiveness of a default nudge while accounting for psychological reactance and response time. Overall and in line with earlier studies, we find no negative effect of transparency on average behaviour. Adding to the previous discussion, we find that effects of transparency differ depending on response time. In particular, decision makers with longer response time in fact react more positively (keeping the default) if nudging is made transparent. Moreover, the data show an interaction of reactance and response time in that more reactant subjects with longer response time leave the default more often. Thus, a positive effect of transparency as well as a negative impact of reactance can be established in the data if response time is accounted for.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Tobias Schütze","Carsten Spitzer","Philipp C. Wichardt"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102797","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-20f935bc18fddb10","title":"Experimenting with Measurement Error: Techniques with Applications to the Caltech Cohort Study","abstract":"Measurement error is ubiquitous in experimental work. It leads to imperfect statistical controls, attenuated estimated effects of elicited behaviors, and biased correlations between characteristics. We develop statistical techniques for handling experimental measurement error. These techniques are applied to data from the Caltech Cohort Study, which conducts repeated incentivized surveys of the Caltech student body. We replicate three classic experiments, demonstrating that results change substantially when measurement error is accounted for. Collectively, these results show that failing to properly account for measurement error may cause a field-wide bias leading scholars to identify “new” phenomena.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Ben Gillen","Erik Snowberg","Leeat Yariv"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701681","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-20fb3e70477a0de2","title":"Generalized recovery","abstract":"We characterize when physical probabilities, marginal utilities, and the discount rate can be recovered from observed state prices for several future time periods. We make no assumptions of the probability distribution, thus generalizing the time-homogeneous stationary model of Ross (2015). Recovery is feasible when the number of maturities with observable prices is higher than the number of states of the economy (or the number of parameters characterizing the pricing kernel). When recovery is feasible, our model allows a closed-form linearized solution. We implement our model empirically, testing the predictive power of the recovered expected return and other recovered statistics.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Christian Skov Jensen","David Lando","Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.12.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2100c98c9dd79b65","title":"Inflation and growth: A non-monotonic relationship in an innovation-driven economy","abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on long-run economic growth via different cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints on R&D in a Schumpeterian growth model with vertical and horizontal innovations. The relationship between inflation and growth is contingent on the relative extents of CIA constraints and diminishing returns to two types of innovation. This model can generate a mixed (monotonic or non-monotonic) relationship between inflation and growth, given that the relative strength of monetary effects on growth between different CIA constraints and that of R&D-labor-reallocation effects between different diminishing returns vary with the nominal interest rate. In the empirically relevant case where horizontal R&D is subject to larger diminishing returns than vertical R&D, inflation and growth can exhibit an inverted-U relationship when the CIA constraint on horizontal R&D is sufficiently larger than that on vertical R&D. Finally, we calibrate the model to the US economy and find that the growth-maximizing rate of inflation is around 2.4%, which is consistent with the recent empirical estimates.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Zhijie Zheng","Chien‐Yu Huang","Yibai Yang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000622","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-210584fb36d6f015","title":"Lights, Camera … Income! Illuminating the National Accounts-Household Surveys Debate","abstract":"GDP per capita and household survey means present conflicting pictures of the rate of economic development in emerging countries. One of the areas in which the national accounts–household surveys debate is key is the measurement of developing world poverty. We propose a data-driven method to assess the relative quality of GDP per capita and survey means by comparing them to the evolution of satellite-recorded nighttime lights. Our main assumption, which is robust to a variety of specification checks, is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means. We obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income; these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means. We conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts, and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero. Additionally, we provide evidence that national accounts are good indicators of desirable outcomes for the poor (such as longer life expectancy, better education and access to safe water), and we show that surveys appear to perform worse in developing countries that are richer and that are growing faster. Therefore, we interpret our results as providing support for estimates of world poverty that are based on national accounts.","wordCount":236,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Maxim Pinkovskiy","Xavier Sala-i-Martín"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw003","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-210f81874f385046","title":"Electricity consumption changes following solar adoption: Testing for a solar rebound","abstract":"We use household‐level data to explore residential electricity use patterns following installation of solar panels. Solar adoption leads to an increase in total electricity consumption relative to a matched non‐adopting control group. Our point estimate translates to a rebound effect of 28.5%, suggesting that nearly a third of the electricity produced by a customer's solar panels is used for increased energy services, rather than reduced grid electricity consumption. We explore several potential drivers of an increase in electricity consumption. These results have important implications for electricity planning and policy, suggesting that rooftop solar stimulates additional demand for electricity.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Ross C. Beppler","Daniel C. Matisoff","Matthew E. Oliver"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-211308371dfe0f06","title":"Crafting Intellectual Property Rights: Implications for Patent Assertion Entities, Litigation, and Innovation","abstract":"We show that examiner-driven variation in patent rights leads to quantitatively large impacts on several patent outcomes, including patent value, citations, and litigation. Notably, Patent Assertion Entities (PAEs) overwhelmingly purchase patents granted by “lenient” examiners. These examiners issue patents that are more likely to be litigated by both PAEs and conventional companies, and that also have higher invalidity rates. PAEs leverage a specific friction in the patent system that stems from lenient examiners and affects litigation more broadly. These patterns indicate that there is much at stake during patent examination, contradicting the influential “rational ignorance” view of the patent office.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Josh Feng","Xavier Jaravel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180361","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2115a03962247a6b","title":"The social cost of carbon revisited","abstract":"An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is crucial to climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach uses an integrated assessment model (IAM) to simulate time paths for the atmospheric CO2 concentration, its impact on temperature, and resulting reductions in GDP. I have argued that IAMs have deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I present an approach to estimating an average SCC, which I argue can be a useful guide for policy. I rely on a survey of experts to elicit opinions regarding (1) probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, but not the causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avert an extreme outcome, i.e., a large climate-induced reduction in GDP. The average SCC is the ratio of the present value of lost GDP from an extreme outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert that outcome. I discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of confidence in their answers yields lower SCCs, $80 to $100/mt, but still well above the IAM-based estimates used by the U.S. government.","wordCount":222,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Robert S. Pindyck"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.02.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-211824d9f1d0ae3c","title":"Do renewable energy investments create local jobs?","abstract":"Globally, renewable energy projects often face local opposition despite the potential for job creation. Analyzing data from over 3,900 Spanish municipalities (2017–2021), we find that new jobs frequently do not remain in the host communities. Solar projects show stronger employment and unemployment multipliers compared to wind, reflecting differing task and skill requirements. Beyond the labor market impacts, residents benefit from the investments through greater public spending and increased per capita income. However, these effects are modest, particularly in the case of small to medium-sized plants.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Natalia Fabra","Eduardo Gutiérrez","Aitor Lacuesta","Roberto Ramos"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105212","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-211f7543735d2dce","title":"Indigenous Nations and the Development of the U.S. Economy: Land, Resources, and Dispossession","abstract":"Abundant land and strong property rights are conventionally viewed as key factors underpinning U.S. economic development success. This view relies on the “Pristine Myth” of an empty undeveloped land, but the abundant land of North America was already made productive and was the recognized territory of sovereign Indigenous Nations. We demonstrate that the development of strong property rights for European/American settlers was mirrored by the attenuation and increasing disregard of Indigenous property rights. We argue that the dearth of discussion of the dispossession of Indigenous nations results in a misunderstanding of some of the core themes of U.S. economic history.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Ann M. Carlos","Donna Feir","Angela Redish"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000080","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-212384366fbd7399","title":"Do Creditor Rights Increase Employment Risk? Evidence from Loan Covenants","abstract":"Using a regression discontinuity design, we provide evidence that there are sharp and substantial employment cuts following loan covenant violations, when creditors gain rights to accelerate, restructure, or terminate a loan. The cuts are larger at firms with higher financing frictions and with weaker employee bargaining power, and during industry and macroeconomic downturns, when employees have fewer job opportunities. Union elections that create new labor bargaining units lead to higher loan spreads, consistent with creditors requiring compensation when employees gain bargaining power. Overall, binding financial contracts have a large impact on employees and are an amplification mechanism of economic downturns.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Antonio Falato","Nellie Liang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12435","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-213d24e14356c9af","title":"Measuring ambiguity attitude: (Extended) multiplier preferences for the American and the Dutch population","abstract":"Empirical studies of ambiguity aversion often use measures that are not grounded in theory. This paper shows how a theoretically-founded measure of ambiguity aversion can be derived from Hansen and Sargent’s theory of multiplier preferences. Multiplier preferences are used in macroeconomics to capture model uncertainty. At the micro level, they have not been applied yet, because they do not permit ambiguity seeking, which is usually observed for a substantial proportion of subjects. We give a preference foundation for (extended) multiplier preferences accommodating both ambiguity aversion and ambiguity seeking and we propose a simple method to measure them using matching probabilities. We illustrate our method in two large representative samples (Dutch and American) and obtain the first micro estimates of multiplier preferences.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Han Bleichrodt","Zhenxing Huang","Rogier Potter van Loon"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9260-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2145e75a912b719b","title":"Political economy of real exchange rate levels","abstract":"Voluminous theoretical and empirical research shows that real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation could be conducive to economic development. Why do countries then often avoid the pursuit of policies that facilitate undervaluation or even intentionally pursue RER overvaluation? We address this question by investigating economic, institutional, and policy factors that help explain the within-country variation in RER undervaluation in a baseline panel of 68 developing and 39 developed countries between 1989–2013 using OLS and GMM estimators. Our results indicate that increases in the share of non-tradable sector output, imported input intensity of exports, and capital account openness is systematically associated with less undervalued RERs. We also provide evidence that independent central banks and democratic institutions are linked to RER overvaluation. Our key findings are robust to using alternative specifications, measures, estimation techniques, samples, and additional control variables. A preliminary comparison of Latin America and East Asia suggests interesting support for our key findings.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Esra Ugurlu","Arslan Razmi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.03.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2149b7d849179d78","title":"Home-bias in referee decisions: Evidence from “Ghost Matches” during the Covid19-Pandemic","abstract":"We use ghost matches induced by Covid19 in the Bundesliga, Germany’s top two football (soccer) divisions, to investigate whether audiences affect referees. We find that pre-Covid19 referees gave fewer fouls and yellow cards for the home team relative to the away team. These differences in fouls and cards changed during the ghost matches so that home teams were treated less favorably than before. This effect is concentrated in matches where support for the away team is particularly weak. The results provide evidence for a home bias in referee decisions through social pressure.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Marek Endrich","Tobias Gesche"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109621","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2151c75873d2b9c7","title":"Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Why More Educated Workers Enjoy Greater Employment Stability","abstract":"Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? Empirically, these workers have similar job finding rates but much lower and less volatile separation rates than their less educated peers. We argue that on-the-job training, being complementary to formal education, is the reason for this pattern. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, we show that investments in match-specific human capital reduce incentives to separate but leave the job finding rate essentially unaffected. The model generates unemployment dynamics quantitatively consistent with the data. Finally, we provide novel empirical evidence supporting the mechanism studied in the article.","wordCount":102,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Isabel Cairó","Tomaz Cajner"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12441","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2159d5bacd450dd5","title":"Public Debt and Low Interest Rates","abstract":"This lecture focuses on the costs of public debt when safe interest rates are low. I develop four main arguments. First, I show that the current US situation, in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt without a later increase in taxes, may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost. Second, even in the absence of fiscal costs, public debt reduces capital accumulation, and may therefore have welfare costs. I show that welfare costs may be smaller than typically assumed. The reason is that the safe rate is the risk-adjusted rate of return to capital. If it is lower than the growth rate, it indicates that the risk-adjusted rate of return to capital is in fact low. The average risky rate however also plays a role. I show how both the average risky rate and the average safe rate determine welfare outcomes. Third, I look at the evidence on the average risky rate, i.e., the average marginal product of capital. While the measured rate of earnings has been and is still quite high, the evidence from asset markets suggests that the marginal product of capital may be lower, with the difference reflecting either mismeasurement of capital or rents. This matters for debt: the lower the marginal product, the lower the welfare cost of debt. Fourth, I discuss a number of arguments against high public debt, and in particular the existence of multiple equilibria where investors believe debt to be risky and, by requiring a risk premium, increase the fiscal burden and make debt effectively more risky. This is a very relevant argument, but it does not have straightforward implications for the appropriate level of debt. My purpose in the lecture is not to argue for more public debt, especially in the current political environment. It is to have a richer discussion of the costs of debt and of fiscal policy than is currently the case.","wordCount":354,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Olivier Blanchard"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.109.4.1197","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2175e568b14783e9","title":"The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited","abstract":"In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to forward guidance as a central tool of monetary policy. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance has huge effects on current outcomes, and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance. We present a model in which the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets. When agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints, a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates. As a consequence, forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Alisdair McKay","Emi Nakamura","Jón Steinsson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150063","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-21840ddf395119c4","title":"Gender Differences in Tournament Choices: Risk Preferences, Overconfidence, or Competitiveness?","abstract":"A long line of laboratory experiments has found that women are less likely to sort into competitive environments. Although part of this effect may be explained by gender differences in risk attitudes and self-confidence, previous studies have attributed the majority of the gender gap to gender differences in a competitiveness trait. I re-examine this result using a novel experiment that allows me to separate competitiveness from alternative explanations using causal treatments. In contradiction to the main conclusion drawn in a long literature, my results imply that the entire gender gap is driven by gender differences in risk attitudes and self-confidence, which has implications for policy and research.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Roel van Veldhuizen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac031","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-218e4a357d7d8be2","title":"Farm Product Prices, Redistribution, and the Early U.S. Great Depression","abstract":"We argue that falling farm product prices, incomes, and spending may explain 10–30 percent of the 1930 U.S. output decline. Crop prices collapsed, reducing farmers’ incomes. And across U.S. states and Ohio counties, auto sales fell most in crop-growing areas. The large spending response may be explained by farmers’ indebtedness. Reasonable assumptions about the marginal propensity to spend of farmers relative to nonfarmers and the pass-through of farm prices to retail prices imply that the collapse of farm product prices in 1930 was a powerful propagation mechanism worsening the Depression.","wordCount":90,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Joshua K. Hausman","Paul W. Rhode","Johannes Wieland"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050721000334","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-219e8396871330f5","title":"A regime-switching model of stock returns with momentum and mean reversion","abstract":"A vast body of empirical literature documents the existence of short-term momentum and medium-term mean reversion in various financial markets. However, few theoretical models explain these two common phenomena. A Markov model, wherein the return process randomly switches between bull and bear states, can reproduce many stylized facts of financial asset returns, excluding the mean reversion. An important limitation of the Markov model is that the state termination probability does not depend on age. We develop a semi-Markov model wherein, following the empirical evidence, the state termination probability increases with age. We demonstrate that this model induces short-term return momentum and subsequent reversal. We calibrate our model to real-world data and show that the empirical results agree with our theoretical model.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Javier Giner","Valeriy Zakamulin"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106237","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-21a892476837ebb2","title":"Capacity constrained exporters: Identifying increasing marginal cost","abstract":"This study revisits a central assumption of standard trade models: constant marginal cost technology. The presence of increasing marginal costs for exporters introduces significant market interdependence across borders missing from traditional models of international trade that rely on constant marginal cost technology. Such market interdependence represents an additional channel through which local shocks are transmitted globally. To identify increasing marginal cost at the level of the firm, we build in flexible production assumptions that nest increasing, decreasing, and constant marginal cost technology to an otherwise standard international trade model. We derive an estimating equation that can be taken directly to the data. Our structural equation explicitly guides our inference on the shape of the marginal cost curve from estimated coefficients. The results suggest that increasing marginal cost is predominant at the firm level. Moreover, utilizing plant‐level information on physical and financial capacity constraints, we find that the degree of increasing marginal cost is significantly exacerbated by both types of constraints. The evidence suggests that access to larger markets through greater international integration may not have the expected welfare gains typically predicted in standard models.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["JaeBin Ahn","Alexander F. McQuoid"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12429","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-21af0f173a0a03fb","title":"Flagging cartel participants with deep learning based on convolutional neural networks","abstract":"Adding to the literature on the data-driven detection of bid-rigging cartels, we propose a novel approach based on deep learning (a subfield of artificial intelligence) that flags cartel participants based on their pairwise bidding interactions with other firms. More concisely, we combine a so-called convolutional neural network for image recognition with graphs that in a pairwise manner plot the normalized bids of some reference firm against the normalized bids of any other firms participating in the same tenders as the reference firm. Based on Japanese and Swiss procurement data, we construct such graphs for both collusive and competitive episodes (i.e when a bid-rigging cartel is or is not active) and we use a subset of graphs to train the neural network such that it learns distinguishing collusive from competitive bidding patterns. With the remaining graphs, we test the neural network’s out-of-sample performance in correctly classifying collusive and competitive bidding interactions. We obtain a very decent average accuracy of around 95% or slightly higher when either applying the method within Japanese, Swiss, or mixed data (in which Swiss and Japanese graphs are pooled). When using data from one country for training to test the trained model’s performance in the other country (i.e. transnationally), predictive performance decreases (likely due to institutional differences in procurement procedures across countries), but often remains satisfactorily high. All in all, the generally quite high accuracy of the convolutional neural network despite being trained in a rather small sample of a few 100 graphs points to a large potential of deep learning approaches for flagging and fighting bid-rigging cartels.","wordCount":261,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Martin Huber","David Imhof"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102946","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-21af7cc1446daba8","title":"Asset bubbles, entrepreneurial risks, and economic growth","abstract":"Entrepreneurs are exposed to large uninsured risks, which may discourage them from creating productive assets. This may generate productive asset shortages and stimulate speculative demand for bubbles. This study introduces uninsured entrepreneurial risks into a textbook growth model with infinitely-lived agents. In the model, entrepreneurs face no credit constraints. If the degree of entrepreneurial risks is in the middle range, bubbles are likely to emerge. If the degree is high, bubbles promote growth because of the wealth effect. Otherwise, bubbles lower growth. The effect of the collapse of bubbles also depends on the degree of the risks. Moreover, asset bubbles amplify a small and temporal negative technology shock.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Takeo Hori","Ryonghun Im"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105663","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-21b911898d9be49c","title":"Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States","abstract":"We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it.","wordCount":110,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Kyle Handley","Nuno Limão"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141419","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-21bf70a850bee29c","title":"Special Economic Zones and WTO Compliance: Evidence from the Dominican Republic","abstract":"Special economic zones (SEZ), one of the most important instruments of industrial policy used in developing countries, often impose export share requirements (ESR). That is, firms located in SEZ are required to export more than a certain share of their output to enjoy a wide array of incentives—a practice prohibited by the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. In this paper we exploit the staggered removal of ESR across products and over time in the SEZ of the Dominican Republic—a reform driven by external commitments to comply with WTO disciplines on subsidies—to evaluate how ESR affect export performance at the product and firm levels. Using customs data on international trade transactions from the period 2006 to 2014, we find that making the Dominican SEZ regime WTO‐compliant made SEZ more attractive locations for exporters to be based in. The reform, however, did not have a significant effect on the country's exports or on the share of export value originating from SEZ.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Fabrice Defever","José‐Daniel Reyes","Alejandro Riaño","Miguel Eduardo Sánchez‐Martín"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/938850","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-21d518ea8b33e189","title":"An Empirical Dynamic Model of Trade with Consumer Accumulation","abstract":"This paper develops a dynamic structural model of trade in which firms slowly accumulate consumers in foreign markets. Estimating the model using export data from individual firms and a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo estimator, the model predicts lower survival rates for new exporters and estimates low entry costs of exporting—less than half of those estimated in the absence of consumer accumulation. Using simulations and out-of-sample predictions, I show that the introduction of such frictions and the reduction in estimated entry costs allow the model to match important facts regarding the aggregate response of international trade to shocks.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Paul Piveteau"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190051","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-21d8088a048f6ea5","title":"Is There a Replication Crisis in Finance?","abstract":"Several papers argue that financial economics faces a replication crisis because the majority of studies cannot be replicated or are the result of multiple testing of too many factors. We develop and estimate a Bayesian model of factor replication that leads to different conclusions. The majority of asset pricing factors (i) can be replicated; (ii) can be clustered into 13 themes, the majority of which are significant parts of the tangency portfolio; (iii) work out‐of‐sample in a new large data set covering 93 countries; and (iv) have evidence that is strengthened (not weakened) by the large number of observed factors.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Theis Ingerslev Jensen","Bryan Kelly","Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13249","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-21fb99f3fa735335","title":"The Demand for Healthcare Regulation: The Effect of Political Spending on Occupational Licensing Laws","abstract":"Using data on political spending in state elections, this study considers the role of political contributions by healthcare professional interest groups in states' decisions to enact occupational licensing laws. These laws govern how different professions may operate in healthcare markets, and while they ostensibly exist to protect consumers, licensing laws can also insulate professionals from competition in healthcare markets. Higher political spending by physician interest groups increases the probability that a state maintains licensing laws restricting the practices of nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs). Conversely, increased spending by hospital interest groups increases the probability that a state allows NPs and PAs to practice with more autonomy. Nurse groups, which include groups affiliated with NPs, have a smaller effect on licensing laws. And nonphysician groups, which include groups affiliated with PAs, have almost no effect on licensing laws. These results are consistent with the investment theory of political spending.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Benjamin J. McMichael"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12211","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-22004dde67d4a2de","title":"Winners and losers from agrarian reform: Evidence from Danish land inequality 1682–1895","abstract":"Pro-market and pro-farmer agrarian reforms enacted in eighteenth century Denmark laid the basis for rural development but we demonstrate that they also resulted in increased inequality. We investigate this using a novel parish-level database spanning more than two centuries. We identify the impact of land quality on inequality following the reforms by instrumenting with soil type and find increases in areas with more productive land. We propose and find evidence for a mechanism whereby agrarian reforms allowed areas with better soil quality to realize greater productivity gains. This in turn led to greater population increases, and a larger share of smallholders and landless laborers. Finally, we demonstrate the impact on the winners and losers: more unequal areas witnessed increases in top incomes, but greater emigration of the rural poor, to the United States in particular. Thus, the losers were able to vote with their feet, in stark contrast to those who might lose from similar reforms in developing countries today.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Nina Boberg‐Fazlić","Markus Lampe","Pablo Martinelli","Paul Sharp"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102813","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-221c0edd62b8e0ac","title":"Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective","abstract":"Negative correlations between inflation and aging are observed across developed nations. To understand such correlations from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model, with short-lived governments choosing tax rates and bond issues. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Over the past 40 years, aging has generated non-negligible deflationary pressure in Japan. Our analysis sheds new light on the controversy over the burden of national debt and the commitment effect of strategic debt creation.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Mitsuru Katagiri","Hideki Konishi","Kōzō Ueda"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-222635947340d094","title":"A note on the different interpretation of the correlation parameters in the Bivariate Probit and the Recursive Bivariate Probit","abstract":"This note shows that, if a Bivariate Probit (BP) model is estimated on data arising from a Recursive Bivariate Probit (RBP) process, the resulting BP correlation parameter is a weighted average of the RBP correlation parameter and the parameter associated to the endogenous binary variable. Two corollaries follow this proposition: i) the interpretation of the correlation parameter in the RBP is not the same as in the BP —i.e. the RBP correlation parameter does not necessarily reflect the correlation between the binary variables under study; and ii) a zero correlation parameter in a BP model, usually interpreted as evidence of independence between the binary variables under study, may actually mask the presence of an RBP process.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Massimo Filippini","William H. Greene","Nilkanth Kumar","Adán L. Martínez-Cruz"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.03.018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-222fb9a22c0bd84a","title":"Why has under-5 mortality decreased at such different rates in different countries?","abstract":"Female education is more important in open than closed economies. Controlling for socioeconomic and geographic factors, under-5 mortality (5q0) in developing countries has been declining at about 2.7% per year, a high rate of ‘technical progress’. This paper adduces theoretical and empirical reasons for rejecting the usual specification of homogeneous technical progress across countries and uses a panel of 95 developing countries for the period 1970–2000 to explore the consequences of heterogeneity. Allowing country-specific rates of technical progress sharply reduces the estimated income elasticity of 5q0 and points to country variation in technical progress as the principal source of the (large) cross-country variation in 5q0 decline. Education levels and physician coverage also contribute and are less affected than income of allowing country variation in technical progress. The paper concludes by decomposing 1970–2000 5q0 decline into its different sources for each country.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Dean T. Jamison","Shane Murphy","Martin Sandbu"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-223af56149c06956","title":"Regulating recommended retail prices","abstract":"This paper analyses the effects of regulated recommended retail prices (RRPs). Such recommendations by manufacturers are non-binding in nature and thus retailers do not have to adhere to them. We look at regulations, similar to that by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), requiring at least some sales to take place at RRPs. Such regulations were introduced with the aim of protecting consumers. In the absence of regulation an equilibrium exists where the manufacturer charges the same wholesale prices across retailers. We show that regulating RRPs enables manufacturers to commit to their unobserved contracts, creating an equilibrium with wholesale price discrimination. We find that such an equilibrium increases manufacturer’s profits, but harms retailers and consumers.","wordCount":114,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Maarten Janssen","Edona Reshidi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102872","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-22494a87dcb1973e","title":"Can land transfer relax credit constraints? Evidence from China","abstract":"Although many studies have examined what drives credit constraints and their negative impact, evidence on the mechanism of relaxing credit constraints is scarce. This paper explores effective solutions to help households improve their access to credit. Using the China Family Panel Studies data from 2018, we employ an endogenous switching probit model to examine whether and to what extent land transfer can ease credit constraints. We find that households that transfer their land in or out are, respectively, 31.4% or 21.4% less credit constrained than those that do not. Participation in land transfers can improve borrowers’ financial situations through income increases and pledging assets as collateral, alleviating both formal and informal credit constraints. Our results suggest that any government initiatives to promote the efficiency of land transfer to ease credit constraints can help boost economic growth in China.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Conghui Chen","Bing Liu","Ziyou Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106248","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2265a5f9e61cbdd3","title":"Stable sharing","abstract":"We propose a simple model in which agents are matched in pairs in order to complete a task of unit size. The preferences of agents are single-peaked and continuous on the amount of time they devote to it. Our model combines features of two models: assignment games (Shapley and Shubik (1971)) and the division problem (Sprumont (1991)). We provide an algorithm (Select-Allocate-Match) that generates a stable and Pareto efficient allocation. We show that stable allocations may fail to exist if either the single-peakedness or the continuity assumption fail.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Antonio Nicolò","Pietro Salmaso","Arunava Sen","Sonal Yadav"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.06.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2292f37d7e4ebf1e","title":"Assessing political bias and value misalignment in generative artificial intelligence","abstract":"Our analysis reveals a concerning misalignment of values between ChatGPT and the average American. We also show that ChatGPT displays political leanings when generating text and images, but the degree and direction of skew depend on the theme. Notably, ChatGPT repeatedly refused to generate content representing certain mainstream perspectives, citing concerns over misinformation and bias. As generative AI systems like ChatGPT become ubiquitous, such misalignment with societal norms poses risks of distorting public discourse. Without proper safeguards, these systems threaten to exacerbate societal divides and depart from principles that underpin free societies.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Fábio Motoki","Valdemar Pinho Neto","Victor Rangel"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106904","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-22b83d438128f3f4","title":"The Effects of Platform Most-Favored-Nation Clauses on Competition and Entry","abstract":"In the context of sellers who sell their products through intermediary platforms, a platform most-favored-nation (PMFN) clause is a contractual restriction requiring that a particular seller will not sell at a lower price through a platform other than the one with which it has the PMFN agreement. Contractual restrictions observed in markets for e-books and travel services, among other settings, can be viewed as examples of this phenomenon. We show that PMFN clauses typically raise platform fees and retail prices and curtail entry or skew positioning decisions by potential entrants pursuing low-end business models.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Andre Boik","Kenneth S. Corts"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686971","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-22d14d946ac23bea","title":"Consumers in a Circular Economy: Economic Analysis of Household Waste Sorting Behaviour","abstract":"The present research provides a quantitative assessment of households' preferences for different waste separation and handling schemes. We employ a choice-experiment based, nation-wide survey across Denmark. The findings support four different types of “waste sorters”; reflecting the heterogeneity in household waste sorting preferences. To illustrate, while one segment responds favourably towards sorting systems with the possibility for local collection points for hazardous waste and for sorting bio-waste, some segments express opposite responses. We found statistically significant relationships between the heterogeneity in household preferences for home waste sorting and households' sociodemographic characteristics, current self-reported time allocation for waste sorting and handling, use of recycling facilities as well as attitudinal factors on personal motivation and social influence. Furthermore, the findings reveal trade-offs between households' waste sorting preferences and the amount of time they have to spend sorting. We estimate a value of time for this pro-environmental activity of between 2.8 and 6.3 EUR per hour. Overall, the present research demonstrates that households express different preferences towards the practical design of waste sorting systems. This needs to be considered in the development of policy initiatives in order to achieve more effective sorting systems through higher rates of compliance from the public at large.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Doan Nainggolan","Anders Branth Pedersen","Sinne Smed","Kahsay Haile Zemo","Berit Hasler","Mette Termansen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106402","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-22d7d9afa7d9340b","title":"Migration barrier relaxation and entrepreneurship: Evidence from the hukou reform in China","abstract":"We study the impact of relaxing internal migration barriers on entrepreneurship by exploiting China’s 2014 nationwide hukou reform and the administrative firm registry. Our difference-in-differences estimation finds that reformed counties experience sizable increases in entrepreneurial activities compared to control counties. The reform induces the creation of firms with a smaller scale and a lower likelihood of survival, indicating moderate expansions in labor demand. Migrant workers’ wages decline and entrepreneurial activities improve most in labor-intensive industries, implying that increased labor supply serves as one underlying mechanism. Our findings highlight the important role that removing domestic labor market frictions plays in promoting entrepreneurship.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Xinyan Liu","Yunjiao Xu","Jian Zou"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102605","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-22d8e95bfd1124cf","title":"Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data","abstract":"Viruses are a major threat to human health, and—given that they spread through social interactions—represent a costly externality. This article addresses three main questions: (i) what are the unintended consequences of economic activity on the spread of infections; (ii) how efficient are measures that limit interpersonal contacts; (iii) how do we allocate our scarce resources to limit the spread of infections? To answer these questions, we use novel high frequency data from France on the incidence of a number of viral diseases across space, for different age groups, over a quarter of a century. We use quasi-experimental variation to evaluate the importance of policies reducing interpersonal contacts such as school closures or the closure of public transportation networks. While these policies significantly reduce disease prevalence, we find that they are not cost-effective. We find that expansions of transportation networks have significant health costs in increasing the spread of viruses, and that propagation rates are pro-cyclically sensitive to economic conditions and increase with inter-regional trade.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jérôme Adda"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-22eafe2fd62b372e","title":"Initial Coin Offerings: Financing Growth with Cryptocurrency Token Sales","abstract":"Initial coin offerings (ICOs) have emerged as a new mechanism for entrepreneurial finance, with parallels to initial public offerings, venture capital, and presale crowdfunding. In a sample of more than 1,500 ICOs that collectively raise ${\\$}$12.9 billion, we examine which issuer and ICO characteristics predict successful real outcomes (increasing issuer employment and avoiding enterprise failure). Success is associated with disclosure, credible commitment to the project, and quality signals. An instrumental variables analysis finds that ICO token exchange listing causes higher future employment, indicating that access to token liquidity has important real consequences for the enterprise.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Sabrina T Howell","Marina Niessner","David Yermack"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz131","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-22efbba82188eebd","title":"Robust perfect equilibrium in large games","abstract":"This paper proposes a new equilibrium concept “robust perfect equilibrium” for non-cooperative games with a continuum of players, incorporating three types of perturbations. Such an equilibrium is shown to exist (in symmetric mixed strategies and also in pure strategies) and satisfy the important properties of admissibility, aggregate robustness, and ex post robust perfection. These properties strengthen relevant equilibrium results in an extensive literature on strategic interactions among a large number of agents. Illustrative applications to congestion games are presented. In the particular case of a congestion game with strictly increasing cost functions, we show that there is a unique symmetric robust perfect equilibrium.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Enxian Chen","Lei Qiao","Xiang Sun","Yeneng Sun"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105433","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2305c4e94138fb83","title":"Labor markets during war time: Evidence from online job advertisements","abstract":"This study examines the short- and medium-term impacts of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war on the labor market for Ukrainian workers. Using a unique dataset of 5.4 million online job advertisements for Ukrainian job seekers in Poland and Ukraine over the 2021–2022 period, we show a short-term surge in demand for Ukrainians to work in Poland, while the number of jobs available in Ukraine is relatively stable. Since February 2022, the demand for soft and analytical skills in Ukraine has increased, while the demand for such skills in Poland has remained the same. Moreover, the increase in Polish jobs available to Ukrainian workers is largest for medium/high-skilled jobs and female-oriented jobs. Further analysis suggests a persistent shift (to the left) in wage distribution driven by both the decline of wages within job titles and the change in the composition of jobs across Poland.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Tho Pham","Oleksandr Talavera","Z. S. Wu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2313b3b39f9b23ce","title":"Exploring the consistency of higher order risk preferences","abstract":"This study measures higher order risk preferences and their consistency. We explore the role of country differences, the variation of stakes, and the framing of lotteries. We observe a robust dichotomous pattern of choice behavior in China, the United States, and Germany. The majority of choices are consistent with mixed risk aversion or mixed risk‐loving behavior. We also find this pattern after a 10‐fold increase in the stakes. Finally, our results reveal that this pattern is strengthened if the lotteries are displayed in compound instead of reduced form. In a follow‐up study, we explore potential explanations for this framing effect.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Alexander Haering","Timo Heinrich","Thomas Mayrhofer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1298845","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2314f32aea8f0f36","title":"Does competition increase pass‐through?","abstract":"In recent years, the literature has seen a surge of interest in pass‐through as an economic tool. At the same time, widespread concerns have emerged about the rising market power of firms. How does competition affect pass‐through? A standard intuition is that more competition makes prices more cost‐reflective and hence raises the rate of cost pass‐through. This article shows this conclusion is sensitive to the routine assumption that firms' marginal costs are constant. With modestly convex costs, market power can raise pass‐through (even when it lies below 1). These results have implications for antitrust policy, environmental regulation, and welfare analysis.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Robert A. Ritz"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12461","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-232047ef4db8b440","title":"They didn’t know what they got till the crowd was gone","abstract":"This paper revisits the relationship between Covid-19-related full and partial absence of stadium attendance and match outcomes, analyzing five seasons of the top tier of professional football in the Netherlands. Empty stadiums caused home advantages to disappear completely due to home teams scoring fewer goals. Additionally, in empty stadiums, away teams received fewer yellow cards. This persisted even when stadiums were filled to a maximum of one-third of their capacity. Under these circumstances, there were no effects on team performance. Thus, it is improbable that referee decisions were the intermediary factor influencing team performance. Players of home teams appear to have been directly and adversely affected by the absence of stadium crowds.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Jan C. van Ours"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111615","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2327be1aebf80f6a","title":"Employment protection and labor productivity","abstract":"Current theoretical predictions of how employment protection affects firm productivity are ambiguous. In this paper, I study the effect of employment protection rules on labor productivity using Swedish register data. A reform of employment protection rules in 2001 enabled small firms with fewer than eleven employees to exempt two workers from the seniority rules. I treat this reform as a natural experiment. My results indicate that increased labor market flexibility increases labor productivity. This increase is explained by total factor productivity and capital intensity rather than the educational level of workers.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Carl Magnus Bjuggren"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.11.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-234d46508036e76b","title":"Economies of scope and scale in the Norwegian electricity industry","abstract":"An important issue for multi-product firms to consider is economies of scope, i.e., whether there is any benefit from producing two or more products, or whether specializing in producing only one product would be less costly. We examined the economies of scope for Norwegian electricity companies because policy makers have decided to force companies that both generates and distributes electricity to split their operations into two companies, one engaged in generation only and the other in distribution only. We set out to test the validity of the policy makers decision on unbundling generation and distribution. Using data from Norwegian electricity companies for the period 2004–2014, we found evidence of economies of scope, meaning that policy makers’ insistence on separating generation and distribution companies will have increased costs. We also found evidence of economies of scale, meaning that there are cost savings in expanding outputs. Our findings provide important information to consider in future policy decisions in the Norwegian electricity industry, probably with implications for other countries.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Ørjan Mydland","Subal C. Kumbhakar","Gudbrand Lien","Roar Amundsveen","Hilde Marit Kvile"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2367e7499ccf53ef","title":"Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China","abstract":"China has defied the declining trend in domestic content in exports in many countries. This paper studies China's rising domestic content in exports using firm- and customs transaction-level data. The approach embraces firm heterogeneity and hence reduces aggregation bias. The study finds that the substitution of domestic for imported materials by individual processing exporters caused China's domestic content in exports to increase from 65 to 70 percent in the period 2000–2007. Such substitution was induced by the country's trade and investment liberalization, which deepened its engagement in global value chains and led to a greater variety of domestic materials becoming available at lower prices.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Hiau Looi Kee","Heiwai Tang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20131687","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-236f7ade0c846329","title":"Competition with exclusive contracts in vertically related markets: An equilibrium non-existence result","abstract":"I study a model in which two upstream firms compete to supply a homogeneous input to two downstream firms selling differentiated products. Upstream firms offer exclusive, discriminatory, public, two-part tariff contracts to the downstream firms. I show that, under very general conditions, this game does not have a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium. The intuition is that variable parts in such an equilibrium would have to be pairwise-stable; however, with pairwise-stable variable parts, downstream competitive externalities are not internalized, implying that upstream firms can profitably deviate. I contrast this non-existence result with earlier papers that found equilibria in related models.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Nicolas Schutz"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103097","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-237cebd8ebdcb5ee","title":"Are policy mixes in energy regulation effective in curbing carbon emissions? Insights from China's energy regulation policies","abstract":"We consider the policy mixes of three categories of energy regulation policies in China: renewable energy law (mandatory policy), low‐carbon city pilot (voluntary policy), and carbon emissions trading system (market‐based policy). The mix of mandatory, voluntary, and market‐based policies mitigates 4.359 million metric tons of carbon emissions. Voluntary and market‐based energy policies work, while mandatory policy fails due to rent‐seeking by local officials. Policy mixes are more effective in undeveloped and politically average regions than in developed and politically rich ones. Government attention, industrial structure, and green innovation are the economic mechanisms; consistency, coherence, credibility, and comprehensiveness are the policy mechanisms. Our study highlights that policy category, rather than policy quantity, matters more in determining policy effect.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jianxian Wu","Xin Nie","Han Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22535","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-238065d64882a77a","title":"The impact of online sales on consumers and firms. Evidence from consumer electronics","abstract":"In this paper we estimate a differentiated products demand model to ask three questions regarding the introduction of e-commerce. First, we ask whether the online distribution channel has increased total sales, or only diverted sales from traditional channels. We find that there is a market expansion effect but also a considerable sales diversion. Second, we ask to which extent consumers and firms benefited from the introduction of the online sales channel. We find that consumers benefited proportionately more, and this is entirely due to the appearance of an additional distribution channel and not due to increased competition. Third, we ask how the online channel has affected European market integration. We find that price differences between the EU countries for identical products are large both in the traditional channel and online. Therefore, the introduction of e-commerce did not influence price levels and international price dispersion in the traditional channel.","wordCount":148,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Néstor Duch‐Brown","Lukasz Grzybowski","André Romahn","Frank Verboven"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2017.01.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-23835184a6891277","title":"The Evolution of “Competition”: Lessons for 21st Century Telecommunications Policy","abstract":"For over a century, assessments of competition or the lack thereof have been central to how public policy treats the telecommunications industry. This centrality continues today. Yet, numerous foundational questions about this concept persist. In this paper, we chronicle how the definition of “competition” has evolved in economics and has been applied in the communications arena. The academic literature on competition hits an important inflection point in the mid-20th century with the development of “workable competition”: a term that is equated to “effective competition.” We find that while the concept of “effective competition” is central to policy formation at the FCC, the Commission’s own applications of “effective competition” are inconsistent. Given the centrality of this concept, and its inconsistent applications to date, we draw upon the seminal contributions to the development of the notion of “effective competition” to offer a modern definition suitable for application in 21st century communications markets.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Amanda B. Delp","John W. Mayo"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-016-9553-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-23922c73628d871b","title":"The effect of retirement on healthcare utilization: Evidence from China","abstract":"We examine the effect of retirement on healthcare utilization in China using longitudinal data. We use a nonparametric fuzzy regression discontinuity design, exploiting the statutory retirement age in urban China as a source of exogenous variation in retirement. In contrast to previous results for developed countries, we find that in China retirement increases healthcare utilization. This increase can be attributed to deteriorating health and in particular to the reduced opportunity cost of time after retirement. For the sample as a whole, income is not a dominating mechanism. People with low education, however, are more likely to forego recommended inpatient care after retirement.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Yi Zhang","Martin Salm","Arthur van Soest"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.09.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-23af159b372338aa","title":"How risky is distracted driving?","abstract":"We use data on fatal crashes to quantify the risk of distracted driving. We repurpose, extend, and improve a methodology used to estimate the riskiness of drinking drivers (Levitt & Porter, 2001). Our analysis suggests that distracted drivers are three times more likely to cause a fatal crash than focused drivers. We also estimate that distracted drivers represent three to four percent of drivers on the road at any given time. Further, we find that distractions associated with cellphone use are less likely to cause a fatal crash than are distractions from other sources. The externality costs between $0.02 and $0.05 per mile driven. The insurance surcharge for a distracted driving citation that could internalize the avoidable insurance losses is approximately $577 per year. Our work extends the literature on distracted driving and traffic fatalities. We believe our results can inform policymakers on the traffic-safety and economic consequences of distracted driving.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["J. Bradley Karl","Charles Nyce","Lawrence Powell","Boyi Zhuang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09405-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-23d20f9ccf8f2408","title":"Monetary policy in an era of global supply chains","abstract":"We study the implications of global supply chains for the design of monetary policy, using a small-open economy New Keynesian model with multiple stages of production. Within the family of simple monetary policy rules with commitment, a rule that targets separate producer price inflation at different production stages, in addition to output gap and real exchange rate, is found to deliver a higher welfare level than alternative policy rules. As an economy becomes more open, measured by export share, the optimal weight on the upstream inflation rises relative to that on the final stage inflation. If we have to choose among aggregate price indicators, targeting PPI inflation yields a smaller welfare loss than targeting CPI inflation alone. As the production chain becomes longer, the optimal weight on PPI inflation in the policy rule that targets both PPI and CPI inflation will also rise. A trade cost shock such as a rise in the import tariff can alter the optimal weights on different inflation variables.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Shang‐Jin Wei","Yinxi Xie"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103299","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-23e2a6d27219478a","title":"The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation","abstract":"The price of crude oil never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid-2004. By July 2008 it peaked at $145 and by late 2008 it fell to $30 before increasing to $110 in 2011. Are speculators partly to blame for these price changes? Using a simple model of supply and demand in the cash and storage markets, we determine whether speculation is consistent with data on production, inventory changes, and convenience yields. We focus on crude oil, but our approach can be applied to other commodities. We show speculation had little, if any, effect on oil prices.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Christopher R. Knittel","Robert S. Pindyck"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-23f037798169df53","title":"Deposit insurance, bank regulation, and narrow banking","abstract":"Narrow banking has surfaced frequently as a proposed framework for dealing with financial instability and inefficiency. Recent proposals include reforms intended to improve the implementation of monetary policy, and to deal with perceived problems related to stablecoins. A model is constructed in which banks must deal with three frictions: limited commitment, moral hazard with respect to risky assets, and potential misrepresentation of safe assets. Surprisingly, deposit insurance does not engender inefficiency, and government-imposed capital requirements and leverage requirements serve to reduce welfare. The viability of narrow banking depends on inefficient regulation in conventional banking, and narrow banking is never welfare-improving.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Stephen D. Williamson"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105859","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-23f6a04a87cbd010","title":"What is the state of the art in energy and transport poverty metrics? A critical and comprehensive review","abstract":"This review investigates the state of the art in metrics used in energy (or fuel) and transport poverty with a view to assessing how these overlapping concepts may be unified in their measurement. Our review contributes to ongoing debates over decarbonisation, a politically sensitive and crucial aspect of the energy transition, and one that could exacerbate patterns of inequality or vulnerability. Up to 125 million people across the European Union experience the effects of energy poverty in their daily lives. A more comprehensive understanding of the breadth and depth of these conditions is therefore paramount. This review assessed 1,134 articles and critically analysed a deeper sample of 93. In terms of the use of metrics, we find that multiple indicators are better than any single metric or composite. We find work remains to be conducted in the transport poverty sphere before energy poverty metrics can be fully unified with those of transport poverty, namely the stipulation of travel standards. Without such standards, our ability to unify the metrics of both fields and potentially alleviate both conditions simultaneously is limited. The difficulties in defining necessary travel necessitate the further use of vulnerability lenses and holistic assessments focused on energy and transport services.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Christopher Lowans","Dylan D. Furszyfer Del Rio","Benjamin K. Sovacool","David W. Rooney","Aoife Foley"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105360","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-23fb887353d88f2f","title":"The impact of interest rate ceilings on households’ credit access: Evidence from a 2013 Chilean legislation","abstract":"This study analyzes the impact of a legislation introduced in Chile in 2013, which gradually reduced the maximum legal interest rate for consumer loans from 54% to 36%. Using a representative sample of households that matches survey data and banking loan records, I compare consumers with risk-adjusted interest rates slightly above and slightly below the legal interest rate ceiling, two groups of similar characteristics but who are differently affected by the law. After accounting for both macroeconomic shocks and unobserved household heterogeneity, the results show that being above the interest rate cap reduces the probability of credit access by 8.7% on average. A counterfactual exercise shows that the new legislation excluded 9.7% of the borrowers from banking consumer loans. The law’s impact was strongest on the youngest, least educated and poorest families. Finally, I show that the new law affected all lenders of consumer loans in Chile, not just banks.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Carlos Madeira"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.06.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2406fb9b19920c4d","title":"Price and quantity discovery without commitment","abstract":"Wholesale electricity markets solve a complex allocation problem: electricity is not storable, demand is uncertain, and production involves dynamic cost considerations and indivisibilities. The New Zealand wholesale electricity market attempts to solve this complex allocation problem by using an indicative price and quantity discovery mechanism that ends at dispatch. Can such a market mechanism without commitment provide useful information? We document that indicative prices and quantities are increasingly informative of the final prices and quantities and that bid revisions are consistent with information-based updating. We argue that the reason why the predispatch market is informative despite the lack of commitment is that it generates private benefits in terms of improved intertemporal optimization of production plans.","wordCount":115,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Stefan Bergheimer","Estelle Cantillon","Mar Reguant"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102987","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-240f4bed4d5fdc91","title":"Nowcasting Indian GDP","abstract":"Nowcasting has become a useful tool for making timely predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) in a data‐rich environment. However, in developing economies this is more challenging due to substantial revisions in GDP data and the limited availability of predictor variables. Taking India as a leading case, we use a dynamic factor model nowcasting method to analyse these two issues. Firstly, we propose to compare nowcasts of the first release of GDP to those of the final release to assess differences in their predictability. Secondly, we expand a standard set of predictors typically used for nowcasting GDP with nominal and international series, in order to proxy the variation in missing employment and service sector variables in India. We find that the factor model improves over several benchmarks, including bridge equations, but only for the final GDP release and not for the first release. Also, the nominal and international series improve predictions over and above real series. This suggests that future studies of nowcasting in developing economies which have similar issues of data revisions and availability as India should be careful in analysing first‐ vs. final‐release GDP data, and may find that predictions are improved when additional variables from more timely international data sources are included.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Daniela Bragoli","Jack Fosten"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12219","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-24117ce451d1bec0","title":"Improving risky choices: The effect of cognitive offloading on risky decisions","abstract":"Economic choices are difficult and computationally complex. To make good decisions one needs to integrate different variables and resolve several trade-offs. We study whether providing external tools which help reducing the computational complexity of choices improves risky decisions. We find mixed evidence for the effectiveness of these tools, as people tend to rarely use them. Overall, cognitive offloading tools make people less risk averse and better at updating beliefs, but they do not decrease irrational behavior, in the sense of the proportion of dominated choices, violations of expected utility, and sub-optimal budget allocations. These results suggest that simply providing external tools, which make choices (computationally) easier, but where using these aids is discretional, has a limited impact on improving people’s choices under risk.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Yihong Gao","Michele Garagnani"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-025-09451-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2412ef3eb6b956fd","title":"Which farms feed the world and has farmland become more concentrated?","abstract":"Numerous attempts have been made to estimate the share of the world’s food produced by family farms and by farms of different sizes. This paper updates estimates of the number of farms worldwide, their distribution and that of farmland, using the most recent agricultural censuses available, in combination with survey data where needed. It finds there are more than 608 million farms in the world, more than 90% of which are family farms (by our definition), and they occupy around 70–80% of farmland and produce roughly 80% of the world’s food in value terms. The paper also underscores the importance of not referring to family farms and small farms (i.e., those of less than two hectares) interchangeably: small farms account for 84% of all farms worldwide, as per the available census information, but operate only around 12% of all agricultural land, and produce roughly 35% of the world’s food (well below the 80% produced by family farms). A comprehensive examination of changes in farmland distribution over time is also provided to showcase the increased concentration of farmland among large farms as economies grow. The largest 1% of farms in the world (those larger than 50 ha) operate more than 70% of the world's farmland. These estimates are not free from bias given existing data gaps. The paper underscores the need to ensure that agricultural censuses cover non-household farms in order to enhance our understanding of agriculture and food production worldwide.","wordCount":240,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Sarah K. Lowder","Marco V. Sánchez","Raffaele Bertini"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105455","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-242ed0d7265e9062","title":"Does bankruptcy law improve the fate of distressed firms? The role of credit channels","abstract":"Growing financial failure at firm-level can have serious consequences for banks in terms of rising non-performing assets, in the absence of a strong bankruptcy system. Such a scenario in India made its dysfunctional insolvency system to be reformed, introducing the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) in 2016. Using a panel of 33,845 Indian firms over the period of 2008–2019 and by employing a difference-in-differences approach, we investigate how the IBC has supported financially distressed firms in mitigating their intrinsic vulnerability during the post-IBC period, compared to their non-distressed counterparts. We find that through expanded credit availability and lower cost of debt financing during the post-IBC period, distressed firms are able to improve their performance relative to non-distressed firms. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the benefits stemming from the implementation of the IBC policy are more prominent for those financially distressed firms that are larger, younger and more collateralized. Our results are robust to a battery of tests and identification strategies. Our conclusions are relevant in contributing to the current academic and policy debates on safeguarding and preserving business performance and continuity under stressed scenarios.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Udichibarna Bose","Stefano Filomeni","Sushanta Mallick"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101836","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-242f9291eb194a95","title":"Cooperation, norms, and gene-culture coevolution","abstract":"This paper studies how a continuum of individuals interacting in a binary public goods game can secure cooperation through transmitting and enforcing norms. The evolutionary model consists of three distinct dimensions: behavior, norms, and approval preferences. In line with the indirect approach proposed by Güth and Yaari (1992), behavior results from utility maximization, while norms and approval preferences evolve over time. The underlying evolutionary processes differ concerning speed and nature. Whereas norms evolve at the cultural level through peer interactions and socialization, approval preferences are (at least partly) biologically inherited and transmitted from parents to their offspring. We find that if cultural and biological reproductive fitnesses are derived from material and social factors, then an interplay of social disapproval mechanisms gives rise to stable equilibria in which positive cooperation levels persist. Moreover, we find stable equilibria characterized by heterogeneous behavior and moral attitudes across individuals.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Fabian Mankat"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.07.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-24319c3ac3ec1564","title":"Using Instrumental Variables for Inference About Policy Relevant Treatment Parameters","abstract":"We propose a method for using instrumental variables (IV) to draw inference about causal effects for individuals other than those affected by the instrument at hand. Policy relevance and external validity turn on the ability to do this reliably. Our method exploits the insight that both the IV estimand and many treatment parameters can be expressed as weighted averages of the same underlying marginal treatment effects. Since the weights are identified, knowledge of the IV estimand generally places some restrictions on the unknown marginal treatment effects, and hence on the values of the treatment parameters of interest. We show how to extract information about the treatment parameter of interest from the IV estimand and, more generally, from a class of IV‐like estimands that includes the two stage least squares and ordinary least squares estimands, among others. Our method has several applications. First, it can be used to construct nonparametric bounds on the average causal effect of a hypothetical policy change. Second, our method allows the researcher to flexibly incorporate shape restrictions and parametric assumptions, thereby enabling extrapolation of the average effects for compliers to the average effects for different or larger populations. Third, our method can be used to test model specification and hypotheses about behavior, such as no selection bias and/or no selection on gain.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Magne Mogstad","Andres Santos","Alexander Torgovitsky"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15463","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-243a5381d1b9846f","title":"Predicting dropout from higher education: Evidence from Italy","abstract":"Predicting university dropout is crucial. Identifying at-risk students can inform dropout prevention policies, safeguarding the nation’s resources and mitigating the long-term deterioration of human capital. In contrast to previous literature, this study prioritizes predicting student dropout rather than delving into causal mechanisms. This study leverages administrative data encompassing the entire population of Italian students enrolled in bachelor’s degree programs for the academic year 2013–2014. Our quantitative findings indicate that machine learning algorithms exhibit significant predictive capabilities, specifically random forest and gradient boosting machines, underscoring their potential as early warning indicators. Feature importance analysis emphasizes the role of students’ first-year academic performance in dropout prediction. Furthermore, our findings provide additional evidence regarding the influence of family income, high school grades, and high school type. The adoption of these novel predictive tools can facilitate the targeted implementation of policies aimed at mitigating this phenomenon.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Marco Delogu","Raffaele Lagravinese","Dimitri Paolini","Giuliano Resce"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106583","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-244bc8c6f98a4ad0","title":"Rights without Resources: The Impact of Constitutional Social Rights on Social Spending","abstract":"Constitutions around the world have come to protect a growing number of social rights. This constitutionalization of social rights has generally been met with approval from academics, human-rights activists, and policy makers. But despite this widespread support, there is hardly any evidence on whether the inclusion of rights in constitutions changes how governments provide social services to their citizens. We take up this question by studying the effect of adopting the constitutional rights to education and health care on government spending. Using a data set of 196 countries’ constitutional rights and data from the World Development Indicators, we employ a variety of empirical tests to examine if the rights to education and health care are associated with increases in government spending. Our results suggest that the adoption of these social rights is not associated with statistically significant or substantively meaningful increases in government spending on education or health care.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Adam Chilton","Mila Versteeg"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696826","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2460117b22f19006","title":"Markups, quality, and trade costs","abstract":"This paper examines how trade costs induced by geographic distance or bilateral tariffs impact the markups of exports differentiated by quality. It relies on a data set that combines Argentinean firm-level wine exports with experts’ wine ratings as a measure of quality. Exporters price discriminate across destinations by raising markups in more distant markets, and by lowering them in high-tariff countries. However, the response of markups to changes in trade costs is heterogeneous and weaker for higher quality exports. These empirical patterns can be predicted by trade models featuring demand functions more convex than log-concave, but less than superconvex. They demonstrate that the variation in firm-level export unit values across markets is not only driven by quality differences but also by markup variation conditional on quality.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Natalie Chen","Luciana Juvenal"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103627","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2466886b95b6f952","title":"Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities","abstract":"Real rents measured in the United States CPI increased 17.4 log-points from 2000 to 2018. We present a spatial equilibrium framework to decompose the increase into several channels, including demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities. We find location demand contributed significantly: using parameterizations from the literature and a new rent index, we find it is responsible for between 17 and 73 percent of the overall rent increase, and an even larger share in cities where CPI is measured. The wide range is primarily due to a lack of consensus over the population elasticity to rents, so we estimate it by comparing the effects of demand shocks across cities of differing housing supply elasticities. We find that demand changes have similar effects across cities, suggesting a high population elasticity. Therefore, our preferred estimate is that location demand accounts for more than half of the increase. We discuss implications for housing supply policy.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Greg Howard","Jack Liebersohn"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103369","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2466ff5c9403a2b9","title":"Preventing bank runs","abstract":"The work of Diamond and Dybvig, 1983 is commonly understood as a theory of bank runs driven by self-fulfilling prophecies. Their contribution may alternatively be interpreted as a theory for preventing these bank runs. Absent aggregate risk over liquidity demand, they show that a simple scheme that suspends withdrawls when a target level of bank reserves is reached implements the efficient allocation as the unique equilibrium. Uniqueness implies that there cannot be a bank-run equilibrium. Unfortunately, this scheme cannot implement the efficient allocation when there is aggregate uncertainty over every possible liquidity demand because any realization of liquidity demand may, in this case, be determined by fundamentals instead of psychology. When there is aggregate risk, Peck and Shell, 2003 demonstrate that the constrained efficient allocation can be implemented by a direct mechanism as an equilibrium. They show that the same mechanism can also implement a bank-run equilibrium, which suggests that Diamond and Dybvig, 1983 can be understood as a theory of bank runs. The use of direct mechanisms, however, imposes a severe restriction on communications. We propose an indirect mechanism that (i) permits depositors to communicate their beliefs, not just their types, (ii) incentivizes depositors to communicate “rumors” of an impending bank run, and (iii) threatens to suspend payments conditional on what is revealed in these communications. We demonstrate that if commitment is possible, then under some weak parameter restrictions our indirect mechanism uniquely implements an allocation that can be made arbitrarily close to the the constrained efficient allocation as an equilibrium. In other words, our mechanism prevents bank runs.","wordCount":260,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["David Andolfatto","Ed Nosal","Bruno Sultanum"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1970","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-24899fbe5d070a24","title":"Dynamic returns to political tenure","abstract":"Economists frequently assert that politicians derive financial returns from a political career, but these returns can be obscured by the varying duration of political careers. In this study, I estimate the financial returns associated with successive mandates in the Lower House, capitalizing on the repetitive treatment assignment through close elections in the Netherlands from 1848–1917. Employing a dynamic regression discontinuity framework, I establish that the financial benefits accruing to politicians are due to the first two periods of political tenure, but no substantial returns emerge during the more advanced career stages. These findings emphasize that politicians elected for a first and second term exhibit significantly higher end-of-life wealth than their losing counterparts, equivalent to several years’ salaries. I also explore various potential mechanisms, providing evidence in favor of career-based explanations and against in-office returns.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Bas Machielsen"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-248fdc650f80b77c","title":"Time-varying tail risk connectedness among sustainability-related products and fossil energy investments","abstract":"In this paper, we analyse the dynamic transmission of tail risk across a set of well-established sustainability-related financial indices & equities and energy assets using a novel CAViaR-TVP-VAR connectedness measure on daily data from 14 October 2014 to 31 August 2022. Findings suggest that the total risk connectedness is at medium level and the short-run effect of COVID-19 on the risk transmission was mild. Furthermore, ESG and green equities are persistent net risk transmitters, while green bond, carbon asset, and energy commodities are tail risk takers. The role of renewable energy stocks is inconclusive due to distinct time-varying characteristics. With reference to pairwise relationship, we show that sustainability equities strongly interact with crude oil futures and fossil energy equities. Furthermore, green bond, carbon, natural gas and coal futures weakly associate with the remaining assets in the system. Finally, we find that EPU, OVX, VIX, GPR, and the spread of US Tresuary have asymmetric impact on the spillovers. Altogether, our results offer insightful implications for policymakers and especially for “green” and “brown” products investors in risk diversification from the VaR perspective.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Brian M. Lucey","Boru Ren"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106812","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2494c25fc381a068","title":"Economic Sanctions and Trade Flows in the Neighborhood","abstract":"We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with sanctioned states. According to trade models, sanctions are expected to reduce trade flows, as they disrupt established trading routes and economic relationships with suppliers and customers. However, there may also be instances in which countries circumvent trade restrictions by clandestinely exchanging goods with sanctioned countries across the border and trading on their behalf, which leads to an increase in imports and/or exports. To shed light on this issue, we employ a combination of large-N panel data analysis and comparative case studies using the synthetic control method. We find that, in the aggregate, neighboring countries experience economic costs as sanctions disrupt trade. Yet case studies uncover heterogeneity in countries’ responses, with some exhibiting an increase in trade flows. Possible explanations for these different outcomes include opportunistic behavior and increased costs.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Vincenzo Bove","Jessica Di Salvatore","Roberto Nisticò"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/725678","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-24983dcfd2707170","title":"The Rise of Domestic Outsourcing and the Evolution of the German Wage Structure","abstract":"The nature of the relationship between employers and employees has been changing over the past three decades, with firms increasingly relying on contractors, temp agencies, and franchises rather than hiring employees directly. We investigate the impact of this transformation on the wage structure by following jobs that are moved outside the boundary of lead employers to contracting firms. We develop a new method for identifying outsourcing of food, cleaning, security, and logistics services in administrative data using the universe of social security records in Germany. We document a dramatic growth of domestic outsourcing in Germany since the early 1990s. Event-study analyses show that wages in outsourced jobs fall by approximately 10–15% relative to similar jobs that are not outsourced. We find evidence that the wage losses associated with outsourcing stem from a loss of firm-specific rents, suggesting that labor cost savings are an important reason firms choose to contract out these services. Finally, we tie the increase in outsourcing activity to broader changes in the German wage structure, in particular showing that outsourcing of cleaning, security, and logistics services alone accounts for around 9% of the increase in German wage inequality since the 1980s.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Deborah Goldschmidt","Johannes F. Schmieder"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx008","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-24a07a817408a455","title":"Things versus People: Gender Differences in Vocational Interests and in Occupational Preferences","abstract":"Occupational choices remain strongly segregated by gender, for reasons not yet fully understood. In this paper, we use detailed information on the cognitive requirements in 130 distinct learnable occupations in the Swiss apprenticeship system to describe the broad job content in these occupations along the things-versus-people dimension. We first show that our occupational classification along this dimension closely aligns with actual job tasks, taken from an independent data source on employers job advertisements. We then document that female apprentices tend to choose occupations that are oriented towards working with people, while male apprentices tend to favor occupations that involve working with things. In fact, our analysis suggests that this variable is by any statistical measure among the most important proximate predictors of occupational gender segregation. In a further step, we replicate this finding using individual-level data on both occupational aspirations and actual occupational choices for a sample of adolescents at the start of 8th grade and the end of 9th grade, respectively. Using these additional data, we finally show that the gender difference in occupational preferences is largely independent of a large number of individual, parental, and regional controls.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Andreas Kühn","Stefan C. Wolter"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.09.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-24a084acfe1ccfd9","title":"Do urgent care centers reduce Medicare spending?","abstract":"We ask how urgent care centers (UCCs) impact healthcare costs and utilization among nearby Medicare beneficiaries. When residents of a zip code are first served by a UCC, total Medicare spending rises while mortality remains flat. In the sixth year after entry, 4.2% of the Medicare beneficiaries in a zip code that is served use a UCC, and the average per-capita annual Medicare spending in the zip code increases by $268, implying an incremental spending increase of $6,335 for each new UCC user. UCC entry is also associated with a significant increase in hospital stays and increased hospital spending accounts for half of the total increase in annual spending. These results raise the possibility that, on balance, UCCs increase costs by steering patients to hospitals.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Janet Currie","Anastasia Karpova","Dan Zeltzer"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102753","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-24a852cd59c4fcaa","title":"City origins","abstract":"The urban history, archeology, regional science and urban economics literatures all stress many different locational characteristics as important in driving city location. The availability of ever better, spatially more finegrained, data on the historical and geographical characteristics of cities, and of locations that never developed into a city, makes it possible to start to enrich this debate with (much-needed) empirical evidence. Using this data in combination with more advanced empirical and computational methods will almost surely give us a better, empirically well-grounded, understanding of the relative importance of the many alleged “city seeds” in different parts of the world and at different points in history.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Maarten Bosker"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103677","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-24afd9fa2ecba08c","title":"Mergers and market power: evidence from rivals' responses in European markets","abstract":"We analyze the effects of M&A on the markups of non‐merging rival firms across a broad set of industries. We exploit expert market definitions from the European Commission's merger decisions to identify relevant competitors in narrowly defined product markets and estimate markups as a measure of market power. Our results indicate that rivals increase their markups after mergers. Consistent with increases in market power, the effects are particularly pronounced when pre‐merger concentration is high, when competitors are few, and when relevant markets are national. Merger rivals also reduce their employment, sales, and investment, whereas their profits increase.","wordCount":97,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Joel Stiebale","Florian Szücs"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12427","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-24b616c3405743ce","title":"The Neo-Fisher Effect: Econometric Evidence from Empirical and Optimizing Models","abstract":"This paper assesses the presence and importance of the neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates and estimates an empirical and a New Keynesian model driven by stationary and nonstationary monetary and real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases in the nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases in inflation and output. The main finding of the paper is that permanent monetary shocks that increase the nominal interest rate and inflation in the long run cause increases in interest rates, inflation, and output in the short run and explain about 45 percent of inflation changes.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Martı́n Uribe"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200060","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-24c36ae3d8c6581b","title":"The Welfare Effects of Social Media","abstract":"The rise of social media has provoked both optimism about potential societal benefits and concern about harms such as addiction, depression, and political polarization. In a randomized experiment, we find that deactivating Facebook for the four weeks before the 2018 US midterm election (i) reduced online activity, while increasing offline activities such as watching TV alone and socializing with family and friends; (ii) reduced both factual news knowledge and political polarization; (iii) increased subjective well-being; and post-experiment Facebook use. Deactivation reduced post-experiment valuations of Facebook, suggesting that traditional metrics may overstate consumer surplus.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Hunt Allcott","Luca Braghieri","Sarah Eichmeyer","Matthew Gentzkow"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190658","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-24c516acb49456d9","title":"Assessing the Efficacy of Consumer Boycotts of U.S. Target Firms: A Shareholder Wealth Analysis","abstract":"This article analyzes the effectiveness of 125 U.S. boycotts from 1978 to 2017. On average, the results suggest that actual consumer boycott calls against U.S. target firms (treatment firms) had a negative and statistically significant effect on the shareholder wealth of U.S. target firms. The synthetic control method and the placebo tests confirmed that the negative cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) observed here are robust and not due to idiosyncratic shocks unrelated to the announced boycotts. Negative and statistically significant boycott effects were also found for boycott threats and categorical issues related to union issues, animal rights, living wages in less‐developed countries, racial/sexual discrimination, ideological issues, and political/religious boycotts. The results also show that firms with a higher level of competition and advertising activity experienced larger negative boycott effects; and firms with higher net income observed mitigated boycott effects.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Kasaundra Tomlin"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-24cd487bfd1da011","title":"Agriculture, structural transformation and poverty reduction: Eight new insights","abstract":"Whether the sector of growth matters for the speed of poverty reduction, why, and how best to invest to maximize the poverty reducing effects of sectoral growth remain topics of intense debate. Drawing on the more recent history and applying a range of methods, the papers in this special issue confirm the view that growth in agriculture is on average more poverty reducing than an equivalent amount of growth outside agriculture. They also add important nuances to this broad empirical regularity, uncover a series of structural conditions that affect this relation, and show that different mechanisms to finance public investment to boost sectoral growth (deficit financing, taxation or aid) can have widely different impacts on poverty, a widely-ignored issue so far. They do so by going beyond the traditional agriculture-nonagriculture dichotomy, also looking at the subsectors and the differential effects of prices versus productivity. They further distinguish between production for home and market consumption, between modern, outward oriented and informal domestically - focused firms, as well as between secondary towns and cities. Eight key insights emerge.","wordCount":176,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Luc Christiaensen","Will Martín"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.027","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-24ce354c5452eb25","title":"Preferences, entry, and market structure","abstract":"We provide a unified approach to imperfect (monopolistic, Bertrand, and Cournot) competition when preferences are symmetric over a finite but endogenous number of goods. Markups depend on the Morishima elasticity of substitution and on the number of varieties. The comparative statics of free‐entry equilibria is examined, establishing the conditions for markup neutrality with respect to income, market size, and productivity. We compare endogenous and optimal market structures for several non‐CES examples. With a generalized linear direct utility, the markup can be constant and optimal under monopolistic competition, and nonmonotonic in the number of firms under Bertrand or Cournot competition.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Paolo Bertoletti","Federico Etro"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12155","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-24d381beb100b839","title":"Augmented human development in the age of globalization<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"A long‐run view of well‐being over the last one‐and‐a‐half centuries is presented using an Augmented Human Development Index (AHDI) that combines achievements in health, education, material living standards, and political freedom. The AHDI shows substantial gains in world human development since 1870, although significant room for improvement still remains. The AHDI spread unevenly until 1960, in absolute terms, and up to 1929 in relative ones, and reversed this trend thereafter. The main relative gain went to world countries’ middle class, but the main absolute gain accrued to the top decile. AHD trends and distribution do not match, but compare favourably with, those in per capita income. The absolute gap between present‐day advanced countries and the rest of the world deepened over time, though fell in relative terms. Life expectancy has led progress in AHD, particularly until 1970, and drove the catching‐up by the rest of the world during the epidemiological transition. Political and civil liberties took over thereafter.","wordCount":158,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Leandro Prados de la Escosura"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13064","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-24da21b03686ab02","title":"Chinese aid and local corruption","abstract":"Considering the mounting criticisms concerning Chinese aid practices, the present paper investigates whether Chinese aid projects fuel local-level corruption in Africa. To this end, we geographically match a new geo-referenced dataset on the subnational allocation of Chinese development finance projects to Africa over the 2000–2012 period with 98,449 respondents from four Afrobarometer survey waves across 29 African countries. By comparing the corruption experiences of individuals who live near a site where a Chinese project is being implemented at the time of the interview to those of individuals living close to a site where a Chinese project will be initiated but where implementation had not yet started at the time of the interview, we control for unobservable time-invariant characteristics that may influence the selection of project sites. The empirical results consistently indicate more widespread local corruption around active Chinese project sites. The effect is seemingly not driven by an increase in economic activity, but rather seems to signify that the Chinese presence impacts norms. Moreover, Chinese aid stands out from World Bank aid in this respect. In particular, whereas the results indicate that Chinese aid projects fuel local corruption but have no observable impact on short term local economic activity, they suggest that World Bank aid projects stimulate local economic activity without any consistent evidence of it fuelling local corruption.","wordCount":219,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Ann‐Sofie Isaksson","Andreas Kotsadam"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.01.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-24e20d559f1c42da","title":"Social Status in Networks","abstract":"We study social comparisons and status seeking in an interconnected society. Individuals take costly actions that have direct benefits and also confer social status. A new measure of interconnectedness—cohesion—captures the intensity of incentives for seeking status. Equilibria stratify players into social classes, with each class’s action pinned down by cohesion. A network decomposition algorithm characterizes the highest (and most inefficient) equilibrium. Members of the largest maximally cohesive set form the highest class. Alternatively, players not belonging to sets more cohesive than the set of all nodes constitute the lowest class. Intermediate classes are identified by iterating a cohesion operator. We also characterize networks that accommodate multiple-class equilibria.","wordCount":107,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Nicole Immorlica","Rachel Kranton","Mihai Manea","Greg Stoddard"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160082","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-24f2cfb188eed1e8","title":"Are African households (not) leaving agriculture? Patterns of households’ income sources in rural Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"This paper uses comparable income aggregates from 41 national household surveys from 22 countries to explore the patterns of income generation among rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa, and to compare household income strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa with those in other regions. The paper seeks to understand how geography drives these strategies, focusing on the role of agricultural potential and distance to urban areas. Specialization in on-farm activities continues to be the norm in rural Africa, practiced by 52 percent of households (as opposed to 21 percent of households in other regions). Regardless of distance and integration in the urban context, when agro-climatic conditions are favorable, farming remains the occupation of choice for most households in the African countries for which the study has geographically explicit information. However, the paper finds no evidence that African households are on a different trajectory than households in other regions in terms of transitioning to non-agricultural based income strategies.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Benjamin G. Davis","Stefania Di Giuseppe","Alberto Zezza"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-24f717afb7a1d033","title":"Revisiting the Relationship between Competition and Price Discrimination","abstract":"We revisit the relationship between competition and price discrimination. Theoretically, we show that if consumers differ in terms of both their underlying willingness-to-pay and their brand loyalty, competition may increase price differences between some consumers while decreasing them between others. Empirically, we find that competition has little impact at the top or the bottom of the price distribution but a significant impact in the middle, thus increasing some price differentials but decreasing others. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the relevant sources of consumer heterogeneity and can reconcile earlier conflicting findings.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Ambarish Chandra","Mara Lederman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160252","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2503e09219d89817","title":"Viewpoint: Food insecurity among college students: A case for consistent and comparable measurement","abstract":"A growing body of research among college students has estimated remarkably high levels of food insecurity when compared to food insecurity estimates from the general population over the past decade, with recent literature reviews reporting average prevalence rates of 33–51% compared to 9.8% among U.S. adults. Given these high rates of food insecurity, policymakers at the state- and federal-levels are considering legislation to better understand and ultimately alleviate food insecurity in the college student population. Further, the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study will soon collect national surveillance data on college student food insecurity. However, emerging research suggests that existing food insecurity measurement tools may not perform as expected when used with college students. Indeed, there is no food insecurity measure that has been validated for use with college students. The purpose of this commentary is to discuss the current state of food insecurity measurement among college students and set a course for more meaningful measurement in the college-student population that produces consistent and comparable estimates of food insecurity.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Brenna Ellison","Meg Bruening","Daniel J. Hruschka","Cassandra J. Nikolaus","Irene van Woerden","Matthew P. Rabbitt","Sharon M. Nickols‐Richardson"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102031","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-250fc8a60c330972","title":"High-frequency trading in the stock market and the costs of options market making","abstract":"We investigate how high-frequency trading (HFT) in equity markets affects options market liquidity. We find that increased aggressive HFT activity in the stock market leads to wider bid–ask spreads in the options market through two main channels. First, options market makers’ quotes are exposed to sniping risk from HFTs exploiting put–call parity violations. Second, informed trading in the options market further amplifies the impact of HFT in equity markets on the liquidity of options by simultaneously increasing the options bid–ask spread and intensifying aggressive HFT activity in the underlying market.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Mahendrarajah Nimalendran","Khaladdin Rzayev","Satchit Sagade"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103900","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-251a0aa6944d6aaf","title":"Replication: Do coaches stick with what barely worked? Evidence of outcome bias in sports","abstract":"We replicate the finding of Lefgren et al. (2015) showing that professional basketball coaches in the NBA discontinuously change their starting lineup more often after narrow losses than after narrow wins. This result is consistent with outcome bias because such narrow outcomes are conditionally uninformative. As our paper shows, this pattern is not restricted to the NBA; we also find evidence of outcome bias in the top women’s professional basketball league and college basketball. Finally, we show that outcome bias in coaching decisions generalizes to the National Football League (NFL). We conclude that outcome bias is credible and robust, although it has weakened over time in some instances.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Pascal Flurin Meier","Raphael Flepp","Egon Franck"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102664","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-251ad39f7f4b04a4","title":"Tax-motivated transfer mispricing in South Africa: Direct evidence using transaction data","abstract":"This paper provides the first direct systematic evidence of profit shifting through transfer mispricing in a developing country. Using South African transaction-level customs data, I directly test for transfer price deviations from arm's-length pricing. I find that multinational firms in South Africa manipulate transfer prices in order to shift taxable profits to low-tax countries. The estimated tax loss relating to imported goods alone is 0.5% of corporate tax payments. My estimates do not support the common belief that transfer mispricing in South Africa is more severe than in advanced economies. I find that an OECD-recommended reform had no long-term impact on transfer mispricing but argue that the method used in this paper provides a cost-efficient way to curb transfer mispricing.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Ludvig Wier"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104153","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-251b7d7fd495ec60","title":"Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models","abstract":"To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on being in a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are perfectly suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movements with sudden regime switches. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive methodology to conduct these analyses. We derive first and second moments conditional only on the regime distribution and propose impulse response functions for both moments. By formulating the MSVAR as an extended linear non-Gaussian VAR, all results are available in closed-form. We illustrate our methods with an application to stock and bond return predictability. We show how forecasts of means, volatilities and (auto-)correlations depend on the regimes. The effect of shocks becomes highly nonlinear, and they propagate via different channels. During bear markets, shocks have stronger effects on means and volatilities and die out more slowly.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Erik Kole","Dick van Dijk"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105474","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2530f4046cd94662","title":"Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions","abstract":"We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Garth Heutel","Nolan Miller","David Molitor"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00936","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-25371536f46e591a","title":"Corruption, product market competition, and institutional quality: Empirical evidence from the u.s. States","abstract":"This article argues that the effect of corruption on competition is dependent on the institutional environment. When institutions are relatively efficient, observed corruption is likely to be associated with relatively less competition. Conversely, in areas with low quality institutions (e.g., excessively burdensome regulations), corruption may lead to relatively more competition. I employ unique data on competition, corruption, and institutional quality across U.S. states from 1997 to 2009 and report that a higher level of corruption is associated with relatively more competition in states with low levels of institutional quality. However, as institutional quality improves, the effect of corruption worsens. Thus, institutional quality is a fundamental determinant of the corruption‐competition relationship. Improving institutional quality, while at the same time reducing corruption, will increase competition and likely improve economic outcomes.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Jamie Bologna"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12378","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-25435cb4e663f222","title":"Domestic politics and the formation of international environmental agreements","abstract":"We investigate the effect of domestic politics on international environmental policy by incorporating into a classic stage game of coalition formation the phenomenon of lobbying by special-interest groups. In doing so, we contribute to the theory of international environmental agreements, which has overwhelmingly assumed that governments make decisions based on a single set of public-interest motivations. Our results suggest that lobbying on emissions may affect the size of the stable coalition in counterintuitive ways. In particular, a powerful business lobby may increase the government's incentives to sign an agreement, by providing it with strong bargaining power with respect to that lobby at the emission stage. This would result in lower total emissions when the number of countries involved is not too large. We also show that things change radically when lobbying bears directly on the membership decisions, suggesting that both the object and timing of lobbying matter for the way in which membership decisions, emissions and welfare are affected.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Carmen Marchiori","Simon Dietz","Alessandro Tavoni"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.09.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-254c152cf3a46f93","title":"Are algorithms biased in education? Exploring racial bias in predicting community college student success","abstract":"Predictive analytics are increasingly pervasive in higher education. However, algorithmic bias has the potential to reinforce racial inequities in postsecondary success. We provide a comprehensive and translational investigation of algorithmic bias in two separate prediction models—one predicting course completion, the second predicting degree completion. We show that if either model were used to target additional supports for “at‐risk” students, then the algorithmic bias would lead to fewer marginal Black students receiving these resources. We also find the magnitude of algorithmic bias varies within the distribution of predicted success. With the degree completion model, the amount of bias is over 5 times higher when we define at‐risk using the bottom decile than when we focus on students in the bottom half of predicted scores; in the course completion model, the reverse is true. These divergent patterns emphasize the contextual nature of algorithmic bias and attempts to mitigate it. Our results moreover suggest that algorithmic bias is due in part to currently‐available administrative data being relatively less useful at predicting Black student success, particularly for new students; this suggests that additional data collection efforts have the potential to mitigate bias.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Kelli Bird","Benjamin Castleman","Yifeng Song"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22569","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-25614f57a82df92d","title":"Sustainable welfare: How do universal basic income and universal basic services compare?","abstract":"The newly emerging concept of sustainable welfare refers to welfare systems which aim to satisfy everyone's needs within planetary boundaries and to decouple the welfare-growth nexus. Both Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Universal Basic Services (UBS) have been discussed as suitable, but potentially competing, approaches that could support sustainable welfare. This paper contributes to this debate by asking how UBI and UBS compare in relation to four sustainable welfare criteria: a) planetary boundaries, b) needs satisfaction, c) fair distribution, and d) democratic governance. The paper argues that UBI and UBS are not so much conflicting but complementary approaches for supporting sustainable welfare. UBI focuses on the consumption side of the economy while UBS addresses the production side more directly, both of which would be relevant in any sustainable welfare system. Sustainable welfare outcomes of UBI and UBS would be shaped by the institutional contexts within which they operate, especially by the governance of markets, collective provisioning systems and decision-making at all levels. More attention needs to be paid to these institutional contexts when discussing potential sustainable welfare outcomes of UBI and UBS.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Milena Büchs"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107152","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2565b0eafd746ae1","title":"Productivity and wage effects of an exogenous improvement in transport infrastructure: Accessibility and the Great Belt Bridge","abstract":"In this paper, we study the productivity and wage effects of a large and very localized discrete shock in the quality of transport infrastructure, viz. the opening of the Great Belt Bridge connecting the Copenhagen area with the neighboring island Funen and the mainland of Denmark. We focus on two effects: (i) an accessibility externality, captured via changes in an accessibility indicator at the municipal level; (ii) better matching of workers to jobs, enabled by to the shorter travel times after the opening of the bridge. We can disentangle the accessibility and matching effects, because better matching is only realized via new commutes crossing the Great Belt after the opening of the bridge. Our results show that the increased accessibility had significant positive effects on productivity as well as wages, the latter being much more localized. The productivity effects of improved labour market matching are larger than the accessibility effects, but they are restricted to a small share of the firms. We find a modest wage effect of better matching, suggesting that employees get a small wage increase on top of the commuting cost savings associated with the opening of the bridge. Overall, the estimates suggest that firms benefited more from the opening of the bridge than did workers. Moreover, the bridge benefited mainly highly educated and male workers, and it increased wage inequality.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Bruno De Borger","Ismir Mulalic","Jan Rouwendal"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104133","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-256bd00072a254b1","title":"The consequences of non-participation in the Paris Agreement","abstract":"International cooperation is at the core of multilateral climate policy. How is its effectiveness harmed by individual countries not participating in the global mitigation effort? We use a multi-sector structural trade model with carbon emissions from production and a constant elasticity of fossil fuel supply function to simulate the consequences of unilateral non-participation in the Paris Agreement. Taking into account both direct and leakage effects, we find that non-participation of the US would eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction (31.8% direct effect and 6.4% leakage effect), while a potential non-participation of China lowers the world emission reduction by 24.1% (11.9% direct effect and 12.2% leakage effect). The substantial leakage is primarily driven by technique effects induced by falling international fossil fuel prices. In terms of welfare, the overwhelming majority of countries gain from the implementation of the Paris Agreement and most countries have only very little to gain from unilaterally deciding not to participate.","wordCount":158,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Mario Larch","Joschka Wanner"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104699","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-257df31353d4bf2b","title":"Robustness and Separation in Multidimensional Screening","abstract":"A principal wishes to screen an agent along several dimensions simultaneously. The agent has quasilinear preferences that are additively separable across the various components. We consider a robust version of the principal’s problem, in which she knows the marginal distribution of each component of the agent’s type, but does not know the joint distribution. Any mechanism is evaluated by its worst-case expected profit, over all joint distributions consistent with the known marginals. We show that the optimum for the principal is simply to screen along each component separately. This result does not require any assumptions (such as single-crossing) on the structure of preferences within each component. Applications of the model include monopoly pricing and dynamic taxation. This paper has greatly benefited from conversations with Florian Scheuer, as well as helpful comments from (in random order) Richard Holden, Dawen Meng, Andy","wordCount":140,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Gabriel Carroll"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14165","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-257e4b80c92134a5","title":"Implications of Non-Farm Work to Vulnerability to Food Poverty-Recent Evidence From Northern Ghana","abstract":"Using survey data from northern Ghana, this study seeks to establish the impact of participation in non-farm work on the vulnerability of resource poor households to food poverty. Vulnerability to food poverty is assessed based on expected future food expenditure of households. The potential endogeneity problem associated with participation in non-farm work by households is overcome using a novel instrumental variable approach. Analysis of the determinants of expected future food expenditure is done using a standard Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method. Demographic and socioeconomic variables, location variables, and household facilities are included in the model as control variables. Our study finds that participation in non-farm work significantly increased the future expected food consumption, thereby alleviating the vulnerability of households to food poverty. Our study also confirms that current food poverty and future food poverty, i.e., vulnerability to food poverty, are not independent from each other. Non-farm work plays a crucial role in providing the means to overcome the risk of food poverty in these resource poor households. Policies that promote off-farm income generating activities, such as small businesses and self-employment, as well as the creation and support of businesses that absorb extra labor from the farm, should be encouraged in the study region. Because households in the study region are exposed to above average levels of hunger and food poverty, the study recommends the government of Ghana and development partners to take measures that enhance the resilience of these resource poor households.","wordCount":243,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus","Weldensie T. Embaye","Francis Tsiboe","Vincent Amanor‐Boadu"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.10.015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-25a7099c66da511d","title":"Information frictions among firms and households","abstract":"Our results have implications for modeling choices and macroeconomic dynamics. Using surveys of German firms and households, we document novel stylized facts about the extent of information frictions among the two groups. First, firms’ expectations about macroeconomic variables are closer to expert forecasts and less dispersed than households’, consistent with higher information frictions among households. Second, the degree of dispersion and the distance from expert forecasts varies more across groups of households than across groups of firms. Third, firms update their policy rate expectations less than households when provided with an expert forecast, consistent with firms holding stronger priors. Our results have implications for modeling choices, macroeconomic dynamics, and policies.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Sebastian Link","Andreas Peichl","Christopher Roth","Johannes Wohlfart"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-25b7365bc6df8ea9","title":"On the origins of national identity. German nation-building after Napoleon","abstract":"What are the origins of national identity? We investigate the success of propaganda as one the first nation-building policies conducted in the German lands around 1815. To elicit identity changes at the level of individuals we use data on first names across German cities and villages. To validate the approach of using first names, we show that soldiers with national names had a higher likelihood to be honored for bravery during the German-French War. Exploiting unanticipated border changes together with variation within the same families over time, i.e., family fixed effects, we find that parents in treated cities responded by choosing national (rather than ruler) first names for their children. We do not find a corresponding increase in villages suggesting that national identity was more prevalent among the urban population, in particular the elite, during this period.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Felix Kersting","Nikolaus Wolf"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.02.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-25c28dc35813849c","title":"Persistent and transient variance components in option pricing models with variance-dependent Kernel","abstract":"This paper examines theoretically and empirically a variance-dependent pricing kernel in the continuous-time two-factor stochastic volatility (SV) model. We investigate the relevance of such a kernel in the joint modeling of index returns and option prices. We contrast the pricing performance of this model in capturing the term structure effects and smile/smirk patterns to discrete-time GARCH models with similar variance-dependent kernels. We find negative and significant risk premium for both volatility factors, implying that investors are willing to pay for insurance against increases in volatility risk, even if it has little persistence. In-sample, the component GARCH model exhibits a slightly better fit overall and across all maturity buckets than the two-factor SV model. However, the two-factor SV model reduces strike price bias, giving rise to the model’s ability in reconciling the physical and risk-neutral distribution. Out-of-sample, the two-factor SV model has better fit to data.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Hamed Ghanbari"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101531","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-25d3c696a90f4d83","title":"Another look at returns to birthweight","abstract":"We revisit the causal effect of birthweight. Because variation in birthweight in developed countries primarily stems from variation in gestational age rather than intrauterine growth restriction, we depart from the widely-used twin fixed-effects estimator and employ an instrumental variable - the diagnosis of placenta previa, which provides exogenous variation in gestation length. We find protective effects of additional birthweight against infant mortality and health capital loss, such as cerebral palsy, but in contrast to sibling and twin studies, no strong evidence for non-health long-run outcomes, such as test scores. We also find that short-run birthweight effects have diminished significantly over the decades.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Shiko Maruyama","Eskil Heinesen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102269","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-25ed17485c168b00","title":"Grandmothers and the gender gap in the Mexican labor market","abstract":"This paper estimates the effect of childcare availability on parents’ employment probability using the timing of the grandmothers’ death– the primary childcare provider in Mexico– as identifying variation. I use a triple-difference to disentangle the effect of coinhabiting grandmothers’ deaths due to their impact on childcare from their effects due to alternative mechanisms. Through their impact on childcare availability, grandmothers’ deaths reduce mothers’ employment rate by 12 percentage points (27 percent) and do not affect fathers’ employment rate. The negative effect on mothers’ employment is smaller where public daycare is more available, or private daycare or schools are more affordable.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Miguel Ángel Talamas Marcos"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-25ef2e06356196ed","title":"Norm-based feedback on household waste: Large-scale field experiments in two Swedish municipalities","abstract":"We conduct two large-scale randomized controlled trials to produce the first evidence that Home Energy Report-type norm feedback letters can be used to reduce household waste. We explore several feedback variants, including a novel short-run dynamic norm that emphasizes ongoing changes in waste behavior. Waste reductions are on the order of 7%–12% for all treatments, substantially larger than usually found in the energy or water domains. Effects are mostly driven by increased recycling of packaging and remain largely intact a year after the intervention ended. Feedback is highly cost-effective compared to alternative non-price waste policies. However, net social benefits depend on household preferences for receiving feedback, which we elicit in a valuation survey, and whether existing waste fees internalize the marginal social cost of waste.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Claes Ek","Magnus Söderberg"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105191","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-26047728fbb4a31d","title":"Match length realization and cooperation in indefinitely repeated games","abstract":"Experimental studies of infinitely repeated games typically consist of several indefinitely repeated games (“matches”) played in sequence with different partners each time, whereby match length, i.e. the number of stages of each game is randomly determined. Using a large meta data set on indefinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma games (Dal Bó and Fréchette, 2018) we demonstrate that the realized length of early matches has a substantial impact on cooperation rates in subsequent matches. We estimate simple learning models displaying the “power law of practice” and show that participants do learn from match length realization. We then study three cases from the literature where realized match length has a strong impact on treatment comparisons, both in terms of the size and the direction of the treatment effect. These results have important implications for our understanding of how people learn in infinitely repeated games as well as for experimental design.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Friederike Mengel","Ludovica Orlandi","Simon Weidenholzer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105416","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-26185f6379cae9ae","title":"The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on exchange rates","abstract":"What are the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates? And have unconventional monetary policies changed the way monetary policy is transmitted to international financial markets? According to conventional wisdom, expansionary monetary policy shocks in a country lead to that country's currency depreciation. We revisit the conventional wisdom during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods in the US by using a novel identification procedure that defines monetary policy shocks as changes in the whole yield curve due to unanticipated monetary policy moves and allows monetary policy shocks to differ depending on how they affect agents' expectations about the future path of interest rates as well as their perceived effects on the riskiness/uncertainty in the economy. Our empirical results show that: (i) a monetary policy easing leads to a depreciation of the country's spot nominal exchange rate in both conventional and unconventional periods; (ii) however, there is substantial heterogeneity in monetary policy shocks over time and their effects depend on the way they affect agents' expectations; (iii) we find favorable evidence to Dornbusch's (1976) overshooting hypothesis; (iv) changes in expected real interest rates play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy shocks.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Atsushi Inoue","Barbara Rossi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-261f91f50098adbd","title":"Temperature Shocks and Establishment Sales","abstract":"Combining granular daily data on temperatures across the continental United States with detailed establishment data from 1990 to 2015, we study the causal impact of temperature shocks on establishment sales and productivity. Using a large sample yielding precise estimates, we do not find evidence that temperature exposures significantly affect establishment-level sales or productivity, including among industries traditionally classified as “heat sensitive.” At the firm level, we find that temperature exposures aggregated across firm establishments are generally unrelated to sales, productivity, and profitability. Our results support existing findings of a tenuous relation between temperature and aggregate economic growth in rich countries.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jawad M. Addoum","David T. Ng","Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz126","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2636a5992ed9df25","title":"Identifying the Effects of WIC on Food Insecurity Among Infants and Children","abstract":"The Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Program is considered a crucial component of the social safety net in the United States, yet there is limited supporting evidence on the effects of WIC on the nutritional well-being and food security of infants and young children. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we apply recently developed partial identification methods to jointly account for unobserved counterfactual outcomes and systematic underreporting of WIC participation. Under nonparametric assumptions, we find that WIC reduces the prevalence of child food insecurity by at least 3.6 percentage points (20%).","wordCount":95,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Brent Kreider","John V. Pepper","Manan Roy"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12078","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2639d740ddeafda8","title":"Directed technical change, environmental sustainability, and population growth","abstract":"Population growth has two potentially counteracting effects on pollution emissions: (i) more people imply more production and thereby more emissions, and (ii) more people imply a larger research capacity which might reduce the emission intensity of production, depending on the direction of research. This study investigates how to achieve a given climate goal in the presence of these two effects. A growth model featuring both directed technical change and population growth is developed. The model allows for simultaneous research in polluting and non-polluting technologies. Both analytical and numerical results indicate that population growth is a burden on the environment, even when all research efforts are directed toward non-polluting technologies. Thus, research subsidies alone cannot ensure environmental sustainability. Instead, the analysis highlights the importance of carbon taxes for climate change mitigation.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Peter Kruse-Andersen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102885","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-263b9272c5f6b00a","title":"Biodiversity risk and seasoned equity offerings","abstract":"This study highlights the impact of biodiversity risk on external financing decisions, contributing new insights to the corporate finance literature. This study explores the relationship between a firm's exposure to biodiversity risk and its decision to undertake seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Our results show that firms facing significant biodiversity risks are more likely to engage in SEOs, especially those with greater external financial needs. Additionally, firms with stronger managerial capabilities are better equipped to manage biodiversity risks by obtaining additional funding through SEOs. Our research adds to the corporate finance literature by emphasizing the influence of biodiversity risk on a firm's external financing decisions.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Xiaohui Liu","Li Yulin","Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112214","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-263bc7a60852773e","title":"Global Business Networks","abstract":"We leverage the capabilities of GPT-3 to generate historical business descriptions for over 63,000 global firms. Utilizing these descriptions and advanced embedding models from OpenAI, we construct time-varying business networks that represent business links across the globe. We showcase the performance of these networks by studying the lead–lag effect for global stocks and predicting target firms in M&A deals. We demonstrate how masking firm-specific details can mitigate look-ahead bias concerns that may arise from the use of embedding models with a recent knowledge cutoff, and how to differentiate between competitor, supplier, and customer links by fine-tuning an open-source language model.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Christian Breitung","Sebastian Mueller"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-264aec02cca25ec6","title":"Equity Vesting and Investment","abstract":"This paper links the CEO's concerns for the current stock price to reductions in real investment. We identify short-term concerns using the amount of stock and options scheduled to vest in a given quarter. Vesting equity is associated with a decline in the growth of research and development and capital expenditure, positive analyst forecast revisions, and positive earnings guidance, within the same quarter. More broadly, by introducing a measure of incentives that is determined by equity grants made several years prior, and thus unlikely driven by current investment opportunities, we provide evidence that CEO contracts affect real decisions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Alex Edmans","Vivian W. Fang","Katharina Lewellen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2655074558ed07ba","title":"Reaching for Yield in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds","abstract":"We examine “reaching for yield” in U.S. corporate bond mutual funds. We define reaching for yield as tilting portfolios toward bonds with yields higher than the benchmarks. We find that funds generate higher returns and attract more inflows when they reach for yield, especially in periods of low-interest rates. Returns for high reaching-for-yield funds nevertheless tend to be negative on a risk-adjusted basis. Funds engage in rank-chasing behavior by reaching for yield, although these incentives are moderated by the illiquid nature of corporate bonds. High reaching-for-yield funds hold less cash and less liquid bonds, exacerbating redemption risks.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jaewon Choi","Mathias Kronlund"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx132","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26727a280e32a085","title":"Family first: Defining, constructing, and applying historical patent families","abstract":"The article presents a novel method that enables the formation of historical patent families. Patent families are useful for studying the value of inventions and identifying key technologies, as they indicate geographic diffusion and higher patenting costs. The concept of patent family has not been employed in historical contexts as historical sources generally lack information about priority rights. The article provides a definition of a historical patent family, where patent families incorporate patents with the same invention core. The method is applied and evaluated by constructing Swedish patent families in 1885–1914 with historical patent data from Finland and the United States. Moreover, the article introduces the Patent Diffusion Index (PDI), which is an indicator of historical patent families which can be used to study the sequence and pace of market entry. The article exemplifies how historical patent families open novel perspectives on patent value and technology diffusion in contrast to current indicators, such as patent fees, which usually are bound to national contexts. The method is applicable to any national patent data, and patent drawings are suggested as an effective way to form historical patent families.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["David Andersson","Matti La Mela","Fredrik Tell"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101627","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-268abb39574fab6e","title":"How crucial are preferences for non-tradable goods and cross-country sectoral TFP gap for integration?","abstract":"This paper deals with the effects of economic integration in a 2x 2x 2 model of overlapping generations. We distinguish between a non-tradable and a tradable sector which use human and physical capital. We show that the preference for non-tradable consumption in total consumption expenditure and sectoral productivities are crucial factors to determine which country does benefit from integration in terms of economic growth. Short-run and long-run effects of integration may differ, especially when countries are heterogeneous and when there exist high cross border externalities in education. Moreover, an impatient country may lose to integration when it has a comparative advantage in the tradable sector and/or when the preference for non-tradable goods is high.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Marion Davin","Karine Gente","Carine Nourry"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.05.007","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-26971fdc720f96ba","title":"Sentiment bias and asset prices: Evidence from sports betting markets and social media","abstract":"Previous research using attendance‐based proxies for sentiment bias in sports betting markets confirmed the presence of investor sentiment in these markets. We use data from social media (Facebook “ Likes ”) to proxy for sentiment bias and analyze variation in bookmakers' prices investor sentiment. Based on betting data from seven professional sports leagues in Europe and North America, we find evidence that bookmakers increase prices for bets on teams with relatively more Facebook “ Likes ,” indicating the presence of price‐insensitive investors with sentiment bias. These price changes do not affect informational efficiency in this market.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Arne Feddersen","Brad R. Humphreys","Brian P. Soebbing"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12404","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26996ffe47d241b9","title":"Ex ante and ex post effects of hybrid index insurance in Bangladesh","abstract":"This study assesses both the demand for and effectiveness of an index insurance product designed to help smallholder farmers in Bangladesh manage crop production risk during the monsoon season. Villages were randomized into either an insurance treatment or a comparison group, and discounts and rebates were randomly allocated across treatment villages to encourage insurance take-up and to allow for the estimation of the price-elasticity of insurance demand. Among those offered insurance, we find demand to be fairly price elastic, with discounts significantly more successful in stimulating demand than rebates. Purchasing insurance yields both ex ante risk management effects as well as ex post income effects on agricultural production practices. The risk management effects lead to an expansion of cultivated area with concomitant increases in agricultural input expenditures during the monsoon season. The income effects lead to more intensive rice production during the subsequent dry season, with more intensive use of both irrigation and fertilizers, resulting in higher yields and higher total rice production.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Ruth Vargas Hill","Neha Kumar","Nicholas Magnan","Simrin Makhija","Francesca de Nicola","David J. Spielman","Patrick S. Ward"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.09.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-269b88ba5eaf4e85","title":"Friends with Benefits: How Political Connections Help to Sustain Private Enterprise Growth in China","abstract":"By analysing data from a survey of 511 Chinese private enterprises, we find that their owners respond to government discrimination by developing political connections with government officials. A one‐standard‐deviation increase in the insecurity of property rights has the effect of increasing the number of ‘friends’ in the government by a substantial 22%. These ‘friends’ significantly help to mitigate by half the negative effect arising from the difficulties of obtaining land and excessive regulations on enterprise growth. This explains why an institutional environment of weak property rights has not stopped private enterprises in China from developing rapidly.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economica","authors":["James Kai‐sing Kung","Chicheng Ma"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12212","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26b036a7c300eac5","title":"Obama, Katrina, and the Persistence of Racial Inequality","abstract":"New benchmark estimates of Black-White income ratios for 1870, 1900, and 1940 are combined with standard post-World War census data. The resulting time series reveals that the pace of racial income convergence has generally been steady but slow, quickening only during the 1940s and the modern Civil Rights era. I explore the interpretation of the time series with a model of intergenerational transmission of inequality in which racial differences in causal factors that determine income are very large just after the Civil War and which erode slowly across subsequent generations. “The problem of the twentieth century is the problem of the color line.” —W. E. B. Du Bois, The Souls of Black Folk","wordCount":113,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Robert A. Margo"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000590","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26b35cb5d5a466b8","title":"Cost of carry, financial constraints, and dynamics of corporate cash holdings","abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on how the cost of carry is linked to corporate cash policy in the presence of financial frictions. Using both time-series and firm-level data for US public and private manufacturing firms, we find a negative correlation between cash holdings and the cost of carry for financially unconstrained firms. We find no evidence of such a relation for financially constrained firms. Our results suggest that financial constraints play an important role in adjusting cash to changes in the cost of carry. We introduce a simple model in which firms differ in their cost function of external finance, where the constrained firms' highly curved cost function drives a steeper cash demand, leading to their lower cash sensitivity to the cost of carry.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Ruhollah Eskandari","Morteza Zamanian"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102216","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-26bc2b685500f9fb","title":"Property Rights, Land Misallocation, and Agricultural Efficiency in China","abstract":"This article examines the impact of a property rights reform in rural China that allowed farmers to lease out their land. We find the reform led to increases in land rental activity in rural households. Our results indicate that the formalization of leasing rights resulted in a redistribution of land toward more-productive farmers. Consequently, output and aggregate productivity increased by 8$\\%$ and 10$\\%$, respectively. We also find that the reform increased the responsiveness of land allocation across crops to changes in crop prices.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["A.V. Chari","Elaine M. Liu","Shing-Yi Wang","Yong‐Xiang Wang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa072","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26bf25e4a207f0f9","title":"How can the government spending multiplier be small at the zero lower bound?","abstract":"Some recent empirical evidence questions the typically large size of government spending multipliers when the nominal interest rate is stuck at zero, finding output multipliers of around 1 or even lower, with an upper bound of around 1.5 in some circumstances. In this paper, we use a recent estimate of the degree of substitutability between private and government consumption in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to show that this channel significantly reduces the size of government spending multipliers obtained when the nominal interest rate is at zero. All else being equal, the relationship of substitutability makes a government spending shock crowd out private consumption while being less inflationary, thus, limiting the typically expansionary effect of the fall in the real interest rate. Subject to the nominal interest rate being constrained at zero, the model generates output multipliers ranging from 0.8 to 1.6.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Valerio Ercolani","João Valle e Azevedo"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517001079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26c7de3375dce761","title":"News Aggregators and Competition among Newspapers on the Internet","abstract":"This paper studies how news aggregators affect the quality choices of newspapers competing on the Internet. To provide a micro-foundation for the role of the aggregator, we build a model of multiple issues where newspapers choose their quality on each issue. Our model captures well the main trade-off between the “ business-stealing” effect and the “ readership-expansion” effect. We find that the aggregator increases the quality only if the readership-expansion effect is large enough relative to the business-stealing effect. Using a condition obtained from empirical results, we find that the aggregator increases the quality and social welfare, but affects newspapers' profits ambiguously.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Doh‐Shin Jeon","Nikrooz Nasr"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140151","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26cd1569c51ac6d4","title":"Ageing and labor productivity","abstract":"We exploit a policy-induced shift in the labor supply of elderly (age 63–67) workers in Norway to explore how aging of the workforce within existing firms is likely to affect labor productivity and the demand for younger workers. Our results are imprecise, but indicate that a higher share of age 63–67 workers increases total wage costs and has a small positive effect on labor productivity in the short run. Postponed retirement of existing elderly workers leads to a significant decline in the hiring of younger (below age 30) workers.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Erik Hernæs","Tom Kornstad","Simen Markussen","Knut Røed"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102347","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-26cd2167b7750fe3","title":"Bounded rationality is rare","abstract":"Most bounded rationality properties in the literature are inherited by subchoices, but are not satisfied by at least one subchoice of most choice functions. Therefore the fraction of choice functions that can be explained by these models goes to zero as the number of items tends to infinity. Numerical estimates confirm the rarity of bounded rationality even for small sets of alternatives.","wordCount":62,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Alfio Giarlotta","Angelo Petralia","Stephen Watson"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105509","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-26e68d0e8b157146","title":"Gender Homophily in Referral Networks: Consequences for the Medicare Physician Earnings Gap","abstract":"I assess the extent to which the gender gap in physician earnings may be driven by physicians’ preference for referring to specialists of the same gender. Analyzing administrative data on 100 million Medicare patient referrals, I provide robust evidence that doctors refer more to specialists of their own gender. I show that biased referrals are predominantly driven by physicians’ decisions rather than by endogenous sorting of physicians or patients. Because most referring doctors are male, the net impact of same-gender bias by both male and female doctors generates lower demand for female relative to male specialists, pointing to a positive externality for increased female participation in medicine.","wordCount":107,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Dan Zeltzer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180201","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26ecc879cc81af00","title":"Redistributive choices and increasing income inequality: experimental evidence for income as a signal of deservingness","abstract":"We explore the relation between redistribution choices, source of income, and pre-redistribution inequality. Previous studies find that when income is earned through work there is less support for redistribution than when income is determined by luck. Using a lab experiment, we vary both the income-generating process (luck vs. performance) and the level of inequality (low vs. high). We find that an increase in inequality has less impact on redistribution choices when income is earned through performance than when income results from luck. This result is likely explained by individuals using income differences as a heuristic to infer relative deservingness. If people believe income inequality increases as a result of performance rather than luck, then they are likely to believe the poor deserve to stay poor and the rich deserve to stay rich.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Laura Gee","Marco Migueis","Sahar Parsa"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9516-5","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-26fc9b667b317b53","title":"Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century","abstract":"We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that market potential exhibits an upward trend across all regions of the world from the early 1930s and that this trend significantly deviates from the evolution of world GDP. Finally, using exogenous variation in trade-related distances to world markets, we demonstrate a significant causal role of market potential in driving global income growth over this period.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["David S. Jacks","Dennis Novy"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.07.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2700271ba3cc0524","title":"TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands","abstract":"We estimate the distribution of television advertising elasticities and the distribution of the advertising return on investment (ROI) for a large number of products in many categories. Our results reveal substantially smaller advertising elasticities compared to the results documented in the literature, as well as a sizable percentage of statistically insignificant or negative estimates. The results are robust to functional form assumptions and are not driven by insufficient statistical power or measurement error. The ROI analysis shows negative ROIs at the margin for more than 80% of brands, implying over‐investment in advertising by most firms. Further, the overall ROI of the observed advertising schedule is only positive for one third of all brands.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Bradley Shapiro","Günter J. Hitsch","Anna Tuchman"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17674","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2705e5a6b0cb0902","title":"Relationship and Transaction Lending in a Crisis","abstract":"We study how relationship lending and transaction lending vary over the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationship banks gather information on their borrowers, allowing them to provide loans to profitable firms during a crisis. Because of the services they provide, operating costs of relationship banks are higher than those of transaction banks. Relationship banks charge a higher intermediation spread in normal times, but offer continuation lending at more favourable terms than transaction banks to profitable firms in a crisis. Using credit register information for Italian banks before and after the Lehman Brothers’ default, we test the theoretical predictions of the model.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Patrick Bolton","Xavier Freixas","Leonardo Gambacorta","Paolo Emilio Mistrulli"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw041","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-270911201ec56818","title":"Contests with small noise and the robustness of the all-pay auction","abstract":"This paper considers all-pay contests in which the relationship between bids and allocations reflects a small amount of noise. Prior work had focused on one particular equilibrium. However, there may be other equilibria. To address this issue, we introduce a new and intuitive measure for the proximity to the all-pay auction. This allows, in particular, to provide simple conditions under which actually any equilibrium of the contest is both payoff equivalent and revenue equivalent to the unique equilibrium of the corresponding all-pay auction. The results are shown to have powerful implications for monopoly licensing, political lobbying, electoral competition, optimally biased contests, the empirical analysis of rent-seeking, and dynamic contests.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Christian Ewerhart"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2017.07.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2717de9b97ffc1d3","title":"Environmental attitudes and place identity as determinants of preferences for ecosystem services","abstract":"Stated preference methods are frequently employed to measure people's willingness to pay (WTP) for ecosystem services. However, these techniques are also criticized for following a simplified approach, which often ignores the role of complex psychological and sociological factors, such as general environmental attitudes and place identity beliefs. By means of a discrete choice experiment exercise, we explored the influence of general environmental attitudes and place identity perceptions on WTP, taking peatland restoration in Scotland as a case study. Our research adds to the existing literature by providing a more nuanced picture of the determinants of WTP and by exploring and mapping the distribution of the estimated welfare measures. Our results, obtained from the estimation of hybrid choice models, show that people with more positive environmental attitudes and greater attachment to peatlands and Scotland tend to display higher WTP for peatland restoration. However, differences exist across respondents, depending on their socio-demographic profile and the geographical area. A better understanding of the heterogeneity of preferences for ecosystem services is helpful to guide more efficient policy design and to inform policy-makers about the distributional impacts of planned policies for equity considerations in project appraisal.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Michela Faccioli","Mikołaj Czajkowski","Klaus Glenk","Julia Martín-Ortega"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106600","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-27183a95e8ac86aa","title":"Academic integrity in on-line exams: Evidence from a randomized field experiment","abstract":"We study academic integrity in a final exam of a compulsory course with almost 500 undergraduate students at a major Spanish university. Confinement and university closure due to Covid-19 took place by the end of the last lecture week. As a consequence, the usual classroom exam was turned into an unproctored on-line multiple-choice exam without backtracking. We exploit the different orders of exam problems and detailed data with timestamps to study students’ academic integrity. First, taking the average over questions that were part of both earlier and later “rounds”, we find that the number of correct answers to questions in the later round was 7.7% higher than in the earlier round. Second, the average completion time of questions in the later round was 18.1% shorter than in the earlier round. Third, a mere reminder of the university’s code of ethics, which was sent to a subgroup halfway through the exam, did not affect cheating levels.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Flip Klijn","Mehdi Mdaghri Alaoui","Marc Vorsatz"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102555","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-272aa0132c716a51","title":"Financial heterogeneity and monetary union","abstract":"Fiscal devaluations countervail the macroeconomic effects of a financial shock. During the 2010–12 eurozone crisis, deviations of price and wage dynamics from those implied by canonical Phillips curves were systematically related to differences in financial strains across countries. Most notably, markups in financially “weak” (periphery) countries rose, while those in financially “strong” (core) countries declined. In a monetary union model, where financial frictions interact with the firms’ pricing decisions because of customer-market considerations, firms in the periphery maintain cashflows in response to an adverse financial shock by raising markups in both domestic and export markets, while firms in the core reduce markups, undercutting their financially constrained competitors to gain market share. In this framework, a unilateral fiscal-devaluation-style policy by the periphery stabilizes the local economy by improving the condition of firm balance sheets and by boosting household demand—it does not, however, reverse the real exchange rate appreciation in the periphery.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Simon Gilchrist","Raphael Schoenle","Jae Sim","Egon Zakrajšek"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.06.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-272caee14adef2ba","title":"College Guidance for All: A Randomized Experiment in Pre‐College Advising","abstract":"Pre‐college advising programs exist in most disadvantaged high schools throughout the United States. These programs supplement traditional advising by high school guidance counselors and attempt to help underrepresented and disadvantaged students overcome the complexities of the postsecondary admission and financial aid processes. Existing evidence on these programs often uses within‐school randomization where spillovers and alternative supports may confound estimates. We provide the first evidence on a whole school intervention resulting from a school‐level randomized controlled trial in the United States. The college access program we study uses a near‐peer model where a recent college graduate works at the school assisting students in the application and enrollment process. Pooled results across the first three years of program implementation find no significant impacts on overall college enrollment. However, subgroup analyses reveal positive, significant effects among the groups most targeted by the intervention: Hispanic and low‐income students. Most of the impact comes through increasing two‐year college enrollment, but this appears to be new entrants rather than inducing students to move from four‐year to two‐year colleges. The observed positive effects for these subgroups attenuate over time. We attribute this drop in the estimated impact to departures in fidelity of the experiment. Even among the cohorts for which we find positive enrollment impacts, we find no significant impacts on college persistence.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Eric Bettinger","Brent J. Evans"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22133","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-273787cc68dc2aa2","title":"On Inequality‐Sensitive and Additive Achievement Measures Based on Ordinal Data","abstract":"This paper, following earlier work on the measurement of inequality when only ordinal information is available, proposes an axiomatic derivation of a new class of inequality‐sensitive and additive achievement measures. Use is then made of these indices to study health achievement in Europe, using information on self‐assessed health in 30 countries, based on the European Health Interview Survey (wave 2).","wordCount":60,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Bénédicte Apouey","Jacques Silber","Yongsheng Xu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12427","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-273e32bf62ccc3aa","title":"The role of human-capital in artificial intelligence adoption","abstract":"We study the role of human-capital on the early adoption and diffusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. We do this using recently released EUROSTAT data on AI-adoption across European countries and industries in 2021. We find that pre-existing differences in human-capital are a key driver of differences in AI-adoption. Our estimates suggest that one third to half of AI-adoption is linked to differences in available human-capital across country-industry cells. This relationship holds even when we account for country and industry specific factors. Moreover, higher clustering of university educated workers in firms appears crucial for AI-adoption. This effect is particularly strong for the following AI technologies: (i) those assisting the automation of processes and (ii) those that enable physical movements of machinery. Within firms, human-capital fosters the use of AI in processes associated with production, management and logistics. Despite documenting the automative nature of the AI technologies adopted, we find no evidence for them leading to employment declines (at least by 2021).","wordCount":161,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Björn Brey","Erik van der Marel"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111949","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2748e341e305cac9","title":"Digital finance and corporate innovation: evidence from China","abstract":"In this paper, we investigate the impact of digital finance on corporate innovation based on Chinese A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2017. We find that digital finance has a significant promotion effect on corporate innovation. The development of digital finance promotes enterprise innovation, increasing the number of patent applications and authorizations. The development of digital finance mainly promotes corporate innovation through two channels. First, digital finance improves bank competition and credit availability to promote corporate innovation; second, digital finance reduces financing constraints and financing costs of enterprises to promote corporate innovation. We also conduct a rich set of robustness tests and obtain consistent conclusions.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Ping Zhang","Yiru Wang","Ruyan Wang","Te‐Wei Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2169242","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2750006035c063c8","title":"World War II service and the GI Bill: New evidence on selection and veterans’ outcomes from linked census records","abstract":"We examine new datasets of records linked between the 1940 and 1950 US censuses to characterize selection into military service during World War II and to analyze differences in veterans’ post-war educational and labor market outcomes relative to nonveterans. Motivated by potentially disparate selection into and effects of service, we pay particular attention to groups distinguished by age, pre-war educational attainment, race, and nativity. We find that veterans were positively selected on pre-war educational attainment, but negatively or neutrally selected in terms of own or fathers’ pre-war labor market characteristics. Younger veterans fared better in terms of education and labor market outcomes in 1950 than nonveterans who were observationally similar in 1940. Older veterans exhibited relative gains in education compared to observationally similar nonveterans, but not in labor market outcomes. Black veterans’ relative gains in education were large, but black veterans not in school were less likely to be employed than observationally similar nonveterans in 1950. All groups of veterans were more likely to be government employees after the war and were under-represented in self employment.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["William Collins","Ariell Zimran"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101649","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-275b013883d7b1ee","title":"Regional trade policy uncertainty","abstract":"Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Céline Poilly","Fabien Tripier"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-275e420171754d75","title":"Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments","abstract":"We propose a local measure of the relationship between parameter estimates and the moments of the data they depend on. Our measure can be computed at negligible cost even for complex structural models. We argue that reporting this measure can increase the transparency of structural estimates, making it easier for readers to predict the way violations of identifying assumptions would affect the results. When the key assumptions are orthogonality between error terms and excluded instruments, we show that our measure provides a natural extension of the omitted variables bias formula for nonlinear models. We illustrate with applications to published articles in several fields of economics.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Isaiah Andrews","Matthew Gentzkow","Jesse M. Shapiro"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-276b3b2bd363d9b7","title":"Heterogeneity of consumption responses to income shocks in the presence of nonlinear persistence","abstract":"In this paper we use the enhanced consumption data in the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 2005–2017 to explore the transmission of income shocks to consumption. We build on the nonlinear quantile framework introduced in Arellano et al. (2017). Our focus is on the estimation of consumption responses to persistent nonlinear income shocks in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. To reliably estimate heterogeneous responses in our unbalanced panel, we develop Sequential Monte Carlo computational methods. We find substantial heterogeneity in consumption responses, and uncover latent types of households with different life-cycle consumption behavior. Ordering types according to their average log-consumption, we find that low-consumption types respond more strongly to income shocks at the beginning of the life cycle and when their assets are low, as standard life-cycle theory would predict. In contrast, high-consumption types respond less on average, and in a way that changes little with age or assets. We examine various mechanisms that might explain this heterogeneity.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Manuel Arellano","Richard Blundell","Stéphane Bonhomme","J. C. Light"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.04.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-277bb7127bc4b6bc","title":"Do analysts matter for green investment? Evidence from the EU taxonomy","abstract":"Key finding: Analysts' focus is positively linked to green investments. To mitigate climate warming, one critical strategy is to redirect corporate investments toward low-carbon projects. This study explores the role that financial analysts' focus on environmental issues can play in this process. The research leverages the implementation of the EU Taxonomy Regulation for publicly listed companies in France during the period 2022-2023, which provides a comprehensive, precise, and standardized measure of corporate green investments. We use a firm-level measure of climate change exposure as a proxy for analysts’ attention on environmental issues. We find that analyst attention has a positive and significant effect on corporate green investments. Our results remain robust to potential self-selection bias and reverse causality. In a further analysis, we also find that our main result is driven by analysts' focus on opportunities. This study offers new insights into how analyst scrutiny impacts ESG practices and highlights the potential contributions of the EU Taxonomy Regulation.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Grégoire Davrinche","Jean-Yves Filbien","Ludovic Vigneron"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112277","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-278045bc5f22696a","title":"Dynamic information aggregation: Learning from the past","abstract":"Imperfect endogenous information aggregation helps bring model predictions on aggregate forecasts closer to the survey data. With dispersed information, how much can agents learn from past endogenous aggregates such as prices or output? In a rational-expectations equilibrium, if general equilibrium effects are strong enough, aggregates no longer perfectly reveal underlying fundamentals. In this confounding regime, the effects of informational frictions are persistent over time, and the aggregate outcome displays an initial under-reaction followed by a delayed over-reaction relative to its perfect-information counterpart. In a standard New Keynesian model , we show that endogenous information aggregation helps bring the model predictions on aggregate forecasts closer to the data.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Zhen Huo","Marcelo Pedroni"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.02.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2798351ca591119d","title":"Uncertainty and the Great Recession","abstract":"Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the United States? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. The answer is no. In total we find that increased macroeconomic and financial uncertainty can explain up to 10% of the drop in GDP at the height of the recession and up to 0.6 percentage points of the increased unemployment rates in 2009 through 2011. Our calculations further suggest that only a minor part of the rise in popular uncertainty measures during the Great Recession was driven by exogenous uncertainty shocks.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Benjamin Born","Sebastian Breuer","Steffen Elstner"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12229","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2799a1200d8058d3","title":"Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle","abstract":"Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t − 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t − 2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: net debt issuance falls in year t, while net equity issuance increases, consistent with the reversal in credit-market conditions leading to an inward shift in credit supply. Unlike much of the current literature on the role of financial frictions in macroeconomics, this article suggests that investor sentiment in credit markets can be an important driver of economic fluctuations.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David López‐Salido","Jeremy C. Stein","Egon Zakrajšek"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx014","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-279e00c597b5f33e","title":"Does the difference make a difference? Evaluating Contracts for Difference design in a fully decarbonised European electricity market","abstract":"Due to their ability to mitigate price risks, Contracts for Difference (CfDs) gained popularity amidst high electricity prices during the energy crisis in 2022. Depending on their specific design, CfDs are known to affect investment and dispatch decisions in electricity markets. We evaluate these effects in a fully decarbonised, sector-coupled European electricity market in terms of their impact on the power system and from an investor’s and consumer perspective. We consider four different types of governmental CfDs awarded to wind onshore power plants in a competitive auction for the contracts’ underlying strike price. On the one hand, the CfD types differ in terms of the allowed direction and unit (energy vs. capacity) of payments with consequences for dispatch decisions. On the other hand, they apply different reference prices with implications for investment decisions as reflected by optimally derived strike prices. Implementing the CfDs in an energy system optimisation model, we find that these differences affect curtailment, electrolyser load and market prices in fully decarbonised electricity markets. From a consumer’s perspective, our results show that system costs are lowest for types of CfDs that foster investments in more system-friendly power plants. For investors, in turn, these types of CfDs incur the highest discrepancy of ex ante expected and ex post realised CfD payments, such that they do not necessarily suffice to recover their costs. We conclude that this could be addressed by an adequate risk premium on the strike price, which should be subject to future research.","wordCount":246,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Silke Johanndeiter","Niina Helistö","Valentin Bertsch"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101495","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-27a614f5e8456bc6","title":"Educational Assortative Mating and Household Income Inequality","abstract":"We use data from Denmark, Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States to document the degree of educational assortative mating, how it evolves over time, and the extent to which it differs between countries. This descriptive analysis motivates and guides a decomposition analysis in which we quantify the contribution of various factors to the distribution of household income. We find that assortative mating accounts for a nonnegligible part of the cross-sectional inequality in household income in each country. However, changes in assortative mating over time barely move the time trends in household income inequality.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Lasse Eika","Magne Mogstad","Basit Zafar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/702018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-27b9642db25663c0","title":"The certifier for the long run","abstract":"We build a workhorse model to study the optimal and the equilibrium certifier from a long-run perspective. Firms enter the market, and invest in their capacity to provide quality, before the certification threshold is determined. With a certifier that cares about quality and externalities (such as an NGO), the threshold is demanding and the firms’ profits are small. Anticipating this, only a few firms enter the market, and they invest heavily. With a certifier mostly concerned with the firms’ profits (such as an industry association), the results are reversed. The relative importance of externalities, investments, and entry determines the socially optimal certifier identity as well as the type of certifier that is most likely to operate in equilibrium. The theory’s predictions are empirically testable and shed light on the variety of certifiers across markets and over time.","wordCount":137,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jacopo Bizzotto","Bård Harstad"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102920","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-27bba76d8c48d16a","title":"Disclosure and Favoritism in Sequential Elimination Contests","abstract":"We consider a two-stage contest, in which only a subset of contestants enters the finale. We explore the optimal policy for disclosing contestants’ interim status after the preliminary round, i.e., their interim ranking and elimination decision. The optimum depends on the design objective. We fully characterize the conditions under which disclosure or concealment emerges as the optimum. We further allow the organizer to bias the competition based on finalists’ interim rankings, which endogenizes the dynamic structure of the contest. Concealment outperforms in generating total effort, while disclosure prevails when maximizing the expected winner’s total effort.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Qiang Fu","Zenan Wu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200230","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-27c668bb811d7393","title":"The impact of employment quotas on the economic lives of disadvantaged minorities in India","abstract":"India has the world’s biggest and arguably most aggressive employment-based affirmative action policy for minorities. This paper exploits the institutional features of a federally mandated employment quota policy to examine its causal impact on the economic lives of the two distinct minority groups (Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes). My main finding is that a 1-percentage point increase in the employment quota for Scheduled Castes increases the likelihood of obtaining a salaried job by 0.6-percentage points for male Scheduled Caste members residing in the rural sector. The employment quota policy has no impact for Scheduled Tribes. Contrary to popular notion, I do not find evidence of “elite-capture” among the Scheduled Castes – the impact is concentrated among members who have completed less than secondary education . Consistent with the employment results, I find that the policy improved the well-being of Scheduled Castes members in rural areas who have completed less than secondary education. Finally, the impact of the employment quota policy varies by state characteristics.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Nishith Prakash"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.10.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-27c6fe903e7245d1","title":"Firms, Informality, and Development: Theory and Evidence from Brazil","abstract":"This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model where heterogeneous firms can exploit two margins of informality: (i) not register their business, the extensive margin; and (ii) hire workers “off the books,” the intensive margin. The model encompasses the main competing frameworks for understanding informality and provides a natural setting to infer their empirical relevance. The counterfactual analysis shows that once the intensive margin is accounted for, firm and labor informality need not move in the same direction as a result of policy changes. Lower informality can be, but is not necessarily associated with higher output, TFP, or welfare.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Gabriel Ulyssea"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141745","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-27c8aabad7c8ac33","title":"Common Ownership in America: 1980–2017","abstract":"We empirically assess the implications of the common ownership hypothesis from a historical perspective using the set of S&P 500 firms from 1980 to 2017. We show that the dramatic rise in common ownership in the time series is driven primarily by the rise of indexing and diversification and, in the cross section, by investor concentration, which the theory presumes to drive a wedge between cash flow rights and control. We also show that the theory predicts incentives for expropriation of undiversified shareholders via tunneling, even in the Berle and Means (1932) world of the widely held firm.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Matthew Backus","Christopher T. Conlon","Michael Sinkinson"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-27caf2dc8ed58085","title":"Large-scale school meal programs and student health: Evidence from rural China","abstract":"Reducing urban-rural gaps in child health is one of the most difficult challenges faced by many countries. This paper evaluates the impact of a large-scale school meal program in rural China on the health and nutritional status of students aged 6–16 in compulsory education. We use data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey corresponding to four pre-treatment years (2004, 2006, 2009, and 2011) and one post-treatment year (2015) and find that program participation is, on average, associated with a higher child height-for-age. The impacts are larger among students in a better health condition but small or not significant among the most disadvantaged. We do not observe heterogeneous effects across several individual and household characteristics. We also find positive but not significant effects on Body Mass Index-for-age and weight-for-age. The results suggest that NIP partially improved students' health over the first years of implementation, but more support is needed to achieve broader impacts that effectively reach all vulnerable students.","wordCount":159,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Jingxi Wang","Manuel A. Hernandez","Guoying Deng"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101974","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-27cd28ddb01f375a","title":"Friend or foe? Social ties in bribery and corruption","abstract":"This paper studies how social ties interact with bribery and corruption. In the laboratory, subjects are in triads where two ‘performers’ individually complete an objective real-effort task and an evaluator designates one of them as the winner of a monetary prize. In one treatment dimension, we vary whether performers can bribe the evaluator—where any bribe made is non-refundable, irrespective of the evaluator’s decision. A second treatment dimension varies the induced social ties between the evaluator and the performers. The experimental evidence suggests that both bribes and social ties may corrupt evaluators’ decisions. Bribes decrease the importance of performance in the decision. The effect of social ties is asymmetric. While performers’ bribes vary only little with their ties to the evaluator, evaluators exhibit favoritism based on social ties when bribes are not possible. This ‘social-tie-based’ corruption is, however, replaced by bribe-based corruption when bribes are possible. We argue that these results have concrete consequences for possible anti-corruption policies.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Jin Di Zheng","Arthur Schram","Gönül Doğan"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09683-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-27d9f0daace2534e","title":"Shackling the Identification Police?","abstract":"This article examines potential tradeoffs between research methods in answering important questions versus providing more cleanly identified estimates on problems that are potentially of lesser interest. The strengths and limitations of experimental and quasi‐experimental methods are discussed and it is postulated that confidence in the results obtained may sometimes be overvalued compared to the importance of the topics addressed. The consequences of this are modeled and several suggestions are provided regarding possible steps to encourage greater focus on questions of fundamental importance.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Christopher J. Ruhm"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12333","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-27ef1c9da7580487","title":"How Much Can We Generalize From Impact Evaluations?","abstract":"Impact evaluations can help to inform policy decisions, but they are rooted in particular contexts and to what extent they generalize is an open question. I exploit a new data set of impact evaluation results and find a large amount of effect heterogeneity. Effect sizes vary systematically with study characteristics, with government-implemented programs having smaller effect sizes than academic or non-governmental organization-implemented programs, even controlling for sample size. I show that treatment effect heterogeneity can be appreciably reduced by taking study characteristics into account.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Eva Vivalt"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa019","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-27f000032f8e03fe","title":"Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence","abstract":"We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firms’ economic decisions. In the survey, a randomly chosen subset of firms is repeatedly treated with information about recent inflation whereas other firms are not. This information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation expectations. We find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices, increase demand for credit, and reduce their employment and capital. However, when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound, demand effects are stronger, leading firms to raise their prices more and no longer reduce their employment.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Olivier Coibion","Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Tiziano Ropele"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz029","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-27f756e1c3c9625b","title":"The Long-Run Impacts of Financial Aid: Evidence from California’s Cal Grant","abstract":"We examine the long-term impacts of California’s state-based financial aid by tracking educational and labor force outcomes for up to 14 years after high school graduation. We identify program impacts by exploiting variation in eligibility rules using GPA and family income cutoffs that are ex ante unknown to applicants. Aid eligibility increases undergraduate and graduate degree completion, and for some subgroups, raises longer-run annual earnings and the likelihood that young adults reside in California. These findings suggest that the net cost of financial aid programs may frequently be overstated, though our results are too imprecise to provide exact cost-benefit estimates.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Eric Bettinger","Oded Gurantz","Laura Kawano","Bruce Sacerdote","Michael Stevens"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170466","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-28106e8838eaed56","title":"Ban the box, convictions, and public employment","abstract":"Ban the Box (BTB) policies mandate deferred access to criminal history until later in the hiring process. However, these policies chiefly target public employers. The study is the first to focus on the primary goal of BTB reform, by measuring the impact of BTB policies on the probability of public employment for those with convictions. To execute the analyses, the study uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (2005–2015) and difference‐in‐difference (DD) estimation. The study finds that BTB policies raise the probability of public employment for those with convictions by about 30% on average. Some scholars argue that BTB policies encourage statistical discrimination against young low‐skilled minority males. The study employs triple‐difference (DDD) estimation to test for statistical discrimination, but uncovers no evidence to support the hypothesis.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Terry‐Ann Craigie"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12837","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2814660a96a503ae","title":"Optimal financing and investment strategies under asymmetric information on liquidation value","abstract":"This study develops the real options model to explore how asymmetric information at the time of liquidation ex-post affects a firm’s financing (capital structure) and investment decisions ex-ante. Accordingly, it is found that asymmetric information at the time of liquidation delays investment and reduces the amount of debt issuance. When the degree of asymmetric information is high, the firm cannot take a mixed financing consisting of risky debt and equity. The firm with collateral takes a mixed financing consisting of risk-free debt and equity, whose debt issuance amount equals the collateral value, whereas the firm without collateral takes all-equity financing. This result contrasts with that under symmetric information, where the firm always issues a mix of risky debt and equity. Moreover, when the degree of asymmetric information is substantial, an increase in cash inflow volatility decreases debt issuance. This result also contrasts with that under symmetric information, where an increase in volatility increases debt issuance.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Takashi Shibata","Michi Nishihara"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106709","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2816e01db69f819b","title":"Regulatory arbitrage and loan location decisions by multinational banks","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of international differences in capital regulation on multinational banks' loan origination location decisions. International loan location decisions represent a key banking margin that has previously not been examined in the literature on regulatory arbitrage by banks. Our estimation relies on within-loan contribution variation in location options for individual multinational banks that participate in a syndicated loan. We examine how the loan location choice and the intensity of regulatory arbitrage are affected by borrower transparency. We find that greater borrower transparency to a local bank establishment makes loan location at this establishment more likely, and that regulatory arbitrage is more intense in the case of more transparent borrowers.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt","Bálint L. Horváth","Harry Huizinga"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103840","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-281d81a62b22ba96","title":"The market turn: from social democracy to market liberalism","abstract":"Social democracy and market liberalism provide different solutions to the same problem: how to provide for life‐cycle dependency. Social democracy makes lateral transfers from producers to dependents by means of progressive taxation. Market liberalism uses financial markets to transfer financial entitlement over time. Social democracy came up against the upper limits of public expenditure in the 1970s. The ‘market turn’ from social democracy to market liberalism was enabled by liberalized credit in the 1980s. Much of this was absorbed into homeownership, which attracted majorities of households (and voters) in the developed world. Early movers did well, but eventually easy credit drove house prices beyond the reach of younger cohorts. Debt service diminished effective demand, which instigated financial instability. Both social democracy and market liberalism are currently in crisis.","wordCount":128,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Avner Offer"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12537","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2837a11088c075a4","title":"Party discipline and government spending: Theory and evidence","abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between party discipline and discretionary spending with theory and data. We propose a theoretical model in which a politician faces a conflict between her constituents' interests and the party line. Party loyalty is electorally costly for the politician and is therefore rewarded by the party leader with greater amounts of discretionary spending allocated to the politician's constituency. This effect is greater the more intense the conflict between the voters' and the party's interests. Using data on party discipline in the U.S. House of Representatives and federal payments to congressional districts between 1986 and 2010, we provide evidence that increases in legislators' party discipline raise the amounts of discretionary spending their districts receive. The rewards for discipline are larger the greater the gap between the constituents' and party's preferences (i.e., in conservative-leaning districts represented by Democrats or liberal-leaning districts represented by Republicans).","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Marta Curto‐Grau","Galina Zudenkova"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.05.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2843ae5e71b2fe56","title":"Competition and selection in credit markets","abstract":"Screening in consumer credit markets is often associated with large fixed costs. We present both theory and evidence that, when lenders use fixed-cost technologies to screen borrowers, increased competition may increase rather than decrease interest rates in subprime consumer credit markets. In more competitive markets, lenders have lower market shares, and thus lower incentives to invest in screening. Thus, when markets are competitive, all lenders face a riskier pool of borrowers, which can lead interest rates to be higher. We provide evidence for the model’s predictions in the auto loan market using administrative credit panel data.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Constantine Yannelis","Anthony Lee Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103710","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-284450d8332fa55c","title":"Patent pools, vertical integration, and downstream competition","abstract":"Patent pools are commonly used to license technologies to manufacturers. Whereas previous studies focused on manufacturers active in independent markets, we analyze pools licensing to competing manufacturers, allowing for multiple licensors and nonlinear tariffs. We find that the impact of pools on welfare depends on the industry structure: whereas they are procompetitive when no manufacturer is integrated with a licensor, the presence of vertically integrated manufacturers triggers a novel trade‐off between horizontal and vertical price coordination. Specifically, pools are anticompetitive if the share of integrated firms is large, procompetitive otherwise. We then formulate information‐free policies to screen anticompetitive pools.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Markus Reisinger","Emanuele Tarantino"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12266","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-28461f4c5ef5ca8f","title":"Rushing to opportunity: City growth and entrepreneurship","abstract":"The growth of many cities and industries differs, with some growing slowly and others experiencing rapid change—i.e., rushes. To explain these differences and explore the mechanisms of growth, we develop a model centered on a new trade-off between time-varying fundamentals and time-invariant – but rank-dependent – opportunities. Early population flows depend on the opportunities new entities provide, whether from available land in cities or the accumulation of entrepreneurship human capital in firms. Our model can explain the existence of rushes and their size. We provide suggestive empirical evidence on city- and industry growth consistent with the model’s predictions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Kristian Behrens","Nathan Seegert"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103783","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-285c64f01b7f0222","title":"Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data","abstract":"We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of economic slack or when interest rates are near the zero lower bound. Using new quarterly historical US data covering multiple large wars and deep recessions, we estimate multipliers that are below unity irrespective of the amount of slack in the economy. These results are robust to two leading identification schemes, two different estimation methodologies, and many alternative specifications. In contrast, the results are more mixed for the zero lower bound state, with a few specifications implying multipliers as high as 1.5.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Valerie Ramey","Sarah Zubairy"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696277","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-285f017fd66576a4","title":"Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary","abstract":"We present a general-equilibrium behavioural microsimulation model designed to assess long-run macroeconomic, fiscal and distributional consequences of tax and benefit reforms in a small open economy. We apply the model to reforms adopted in Hungary between 2008 and 2013, a period characterised by intense reform activity in the wake of the financial crisis. Innovations of the model include the treatment of labour supply responses of individuals, affecting both participation (extensive margin) and work intensity (intensive margin), and the incorporation of general-equilibrium effects by a parsimonious macroeconomic model. Our results suggest that Hungary's flat tax reform may have boosted output by improving work incentives of high earners (along the intensive margin), but reduced work incentives and employment levels of low earners. We find that policy measures introduced since 2008 substantially increase income inequality. Moreover, the contribution of changes after 2010 is about four times that of the changes before 2010.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Péter Benczúr","Gábor Kátay","Áron Kiss"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.06.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2860f7793cf8da69","title":"The impact of return migration on employment and wages in Mexican cities","abstract":"How does return migration from the US to Mexico affect local workers? Return migrants increase the local labor supply, potentially hurting local workers. However, having been exposed to a more advanced U.S. economy, they may also carry human capital that benefits non-migrants. Using an instrument based on involuntary return migration, we find that, whereas workers who share returnees’ occupations experience a fall in wages, workers in other occupations see their wages rise. These effects are, however, transitory and restricted to the city-industry receiving the returnees. In contrast, returnees permanently alter a city’s long-run industrial composition, by raising employment levels in the local industries that hire them.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Dario Diodato","Ricardo Hausmann","Frank Neffke"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103557","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-286594c60f501503","title":"Electricity Cost and Firm Performance: Evidence from India","abstract":"Using data on Indian firms, I provide evidence on how electricity prices affect a firm’s industry choice and productivity growth. I construct an instrument for electricity price as the interaction between coal price and the share of thermal generation in a state’s total electricity generation capacity. I find that in response to an exogenous increase in electricity price, firms switch to less electricity-intensive production processes within narrowly defined industries, reduce their machine intensity, and have lower output and productivity growth rates. Thus, electricity constraints may limit a country’s growth by leading firms to operate in industries with fewer productivity-enhancing opportunities.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Ama Baafra Abeberese"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00641","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-286aaaf745dfe33b","title":"Personality traits, preferences and educational choices: A focus on STEM","abstract":"Around the developed world, the need for graduates from Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) fields is growing. Research on educational and occupational choice has traditionally focused on the cognitive skills of prospective students, and on how these determine the expected costs and benefits of study programs. Little work exists that analyzes the role of personality traits on study choice. This study investigates how personality traits relate to preferences of students for STEM studies and occupations, and to specialization choice in high school. We use a rich data set that combines administrative and survey data of Dutch secondary education students. We find that personality traits are related to both the preference that students have for STEM as the actual decision to specialize in STEM studies, but to different degrees. We identify significant relations with preference indicators for all Big Five traits, especially for Openness to Experience (positive), Extraversion and Agreeableness (both negative). The size of these relations is often larger than those between cognitive skills and STEM preferences. Personality traits are comparatively less important with respect to the actual specialization choice, for which we identify a robust (and sizable) negative relation with Extraversion, and for girls find a positive relation with Openness to Experience. The results suggest that once students have to make actual study choice decisions, they rely more on cognitive skills rather than personality traits, in contrast to their expressed preferences.","wordCount":233,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Johan Coenen","Lex Borghans","Ron Diris"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102361","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-286ad99e08a9a7ec","title":"The Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from Capital Regulation","abstract":"We investigate the connections between bank capital regulation and the prevalence of lightly regulated nonbanks (shadow banks) in the U.S. corporate loan market. For identification, we exploit a supervisory credit register of syndicated loans, loan-time fixed effects, and shocks to capital requirements arising from surprise features of the U.S. implementation of Basel III. We find that less-capitalized banks reduce loan retention, particularly among loans with higher capital requirements and at times when capital is scarce, and nonbanks step in. This reallocation is associated with important adverse effects during the 2008 crisis: loans funded by nonbanks with fragile liabilities are less likely to be rolled over and experience greater price volatility.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Rustom M. Irani","Rajkamal Iyer","Ralf Meisenzahl","José‐Luis Peydró"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa106","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-286c8dcfa872c986","title":"The asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on inflation in BRICS: a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model","abstract":"This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price and component shocks on inflation in the context of BRICS countries. We firstly decompose the oil price change into supply, demand and risk shocks and subsequently establish an empirical framework to explore asymmetric pass-through using a novel multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (MTNARDL). The extended model yields precise asymmetric estimates by splitting oil price change and disaggregated shocks into different partial sums. Our results reveal that significant asymmetries between oil price and inflation are only exhibited in China in the short run, suggests that inflationary effect is more dramatic when oil price decreases. For the supply shocks, strong asymmetries are found in Russia and China in the short term and in South Africa in the long term. Meanwhile demand shocks and risk shocks hold either nil asymmetry or weak, in most cases risk shocks have the weakest effect on inflation and the influence fading fast, demand shocks only exert impact temporarily during extreme fluctuation. Nonetheless, asymmetries are most important and significant at the highest and lowest quintiles. Considering the empirical results, this study provides some policy implications for policymakers and investors.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Youshu Li","Junjie Guo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1976386","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-287683acf4c35bcf","title":"Democracy, growth, heterogeneity, and robustness","abstract":"I motivate and empirically investigate differential long-run growth effects of democratisation across countries. While the existing literature recognises the potential for such heterogeneity, empirical implementations to date unanimously assume a common democracy-growth nexus across countries. Adopting novel methods for causal inference in policy evaluation I relax the homogeneity assumption. My results confirm that in the long-run democracy has a positive and significant average effect on per capita income, albeit at 10% this is at best half the magnitude of recent estimates in the literature. Guided by existing theories, additional analysis probes the patterns of the heterogeneous ‘democratic dividend’ across countries. Adopting two rule-based robustness exercises I furthermore demonstrate that, in contrast to recent contributions to the literature, my approach yields empirical findings that are robust to substantial changes to the sample.","wordCount":131,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Markus Eberhardt"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104173","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-287ff4ffa1d8c908","title":"Socioeconomic differences in population growth in 19th century Liaoning, China: a decomposition","abstract":"We decompose population growth in 19 th century Liaoning in northeast China into the shares accounted for by different socioeconomic groups, and by time periods with different economic conditions as reflected in grain prices. This decomposition reveals who benefitted the most when social and economic conditions supported population increase. Previous studies of one region for which relevant data are available, northeast China, showed that birth and death rates varied according to community, household, and individual context, but did not investigate differences in growth rates by context, or the shares of population growth accounted for by each group. Using the same dataset, we decompose population growth by synthesizing differentials in mortality and fertility into estimates of implied growth rates of population subgroups and the shares of total population growth they account for. This decomposition framework can be applied in any setting where household registers or other sources allow for the measurement of the mortality and fertility rates of population subgroups at fixed points of time. We show that advantaged socioeconomic groups contributed disproportionately to population growth in northeast China, and that more growth took place when harvests were good, that is when grain prices were low. Even though mortality and fertility responses to grain price fluctuations varied across subgroups, there is no evidence of differential response of growth rates to these fluctuations. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for our understanding of population dynamics in the late Qing.","wordCount":240,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Cameron Campbell","James Lee"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101678","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-28a5c18cfb7948e9","title":"Direct Estimation of Equivalence Scales and More Evidence on Independence of Base","abstract":"We explore a direct approach to estimating household equivalence scales from income satisfaction data. Our method differs from previous approaches to using satisfaction data for this purpose in that it can be used to directly fit and evaluate closed‐form and non‐parametric equivalence scales of any desired form. Its flexibility makes it easy to consider specific aspects such as income dependence or more specific information on household composition (such as whether household members live in a partner relationship). We estimate and evaluate a number of scales used in the literature. If the equivalence scale is assumed to be independent of income and to depend only on household size, we do not reject the validity of the widely used square‐root scale at conventional significance levels. We also test GESE and GAESE restrictions (Donaldson and Pendakur, 2003, 2006) and investigate in detail to what extent household economies of scale depend on income. Our results suggest that the income dependence differs fundamentally across household types (rising economies of scale for ‘family’ households, falling economies of scale for multi‐adult households without children and no income dependence for other households).","wordCount":184,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Martin Biewen","Andos Juhász"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12166","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-28a86d65053983d3","title":"Regressive Sin Taxes, with an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax","abstract":"A common objection to “sin taxes”—corrective taxes on goods that are thought to be overconsumed, such as cigarettes, alcohol, and sugary drinks—is that they often fall disproportionately on low-income consumers. This paper studies the interaction between corrective and redistributive motives in a general optimal taxation framework and delivers empirically implementable formulas for sufficient statistics for the optimal commodity tax. The optimal sin tax is increasing in the price elasticity of demand, increasing in the degree to which lower-income consumers are more biased or more elastic to the tax, decreasing in the extent to which consumption is concentrated among the poor, and decreasing in income effects, because income effects imply that commodity taxes create labor supply distortions. Contrary to common intuitions, stronger preferences for redistribution can increase the optimal sin tax, if lower-income consumers are more responsive to taxes or are more biased. As an application, we estimate the optimal nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, using Nielsen Homescan data and a specially designed survey measuring nutrition knowledge and self-control. Holding federal income tax rates constant, our estimates imply an optimal federal sugar-sweetened beverage tax of 1 to 2.1 cents per ounce, although optimal city-level taxes could be as much as 60% lower due to cross-border shopping.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Hunt Allcott","Benjamin Lockwood","Dmitry Taubinsky"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-28ac640dbba22169","title":"E-QUEST: A multisector dynamic general equilibrium model with energy and a model-based assessment to reach the EU climate targets","abstract":"This paper describes a micro-founded, fully forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model with energy sectors to analyze the macroeconomic impact of climate mitigation policy in the European Union. The paper presents simulation results for the transitional costs of moving toward a net-zero emissions economy in a budgetary-neutral way through regulation and carbon taxes. Our model allows for substitutability between fossil fuels and clean energy inputs and considers different recycling options for the revenues collected by carbon taxes. We find that the costs of moving toward a net-zero emissions economy can be significantly reduced when carbon taxes are recycled to reduce other distortive taxes or subsidize clean energy. Our scenarios also show that carbon pricing can be less regressive than regulation-based policies.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["János Varga","Werner Roeger","Jan in ’t Veld"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105911","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-28cdba7bb6719fd0","title":"Empirical research on the blockchain adoption – based on TAM","abstract":"Among the modern digital technologies that are reshaping many aspects of our society, blockchain is one of the most innovative, and this cutting-edge technology has drawn a great deal of public attention. However, little research is available on the actual effect of trust, which is a key core attraction for the blockchain technology. Furthermore, few studies have investigated the relationship between trust and user acceptance. In this paper, we develop a research model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM) and the core features of blockchain technology, and we conduct an empirical study. We collect 254 questionnaires about blockchain applications and analyse the responses with SmartPLS3.0. The results show that constructs such as trust and information quality have positive effects on the users’ behavioural intentions, except in terms of output quality. The findings have both theoretical significance and empirical insights, which will be helpful for the further development of blockchain theory while guiding the operation of relevant enterprises.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Na Liu","Zuoliang Ye"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1898535","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-28d3c9bf34afd3bb","title":"Learning in two-dimensional beauty contest games: Theory and experimental evidence","abstract":"We extend the beauty contest game to two dimensions: each player chooses two numbers to be as close as possible to certain target values, which are linear functions of the averages of the two number choices. One of the targets depends on the averages of both numbers, making the choices interrelated. We report on an experiment where we vary the eigenvalues of the associated two-dimensional linear system and find that subjects can learn the Pareto-optimal Nash Equilibrium of the system if both eigenvalues are stable and cannot learn it if both eigenvalues are unstable. Interestingly, subjects can also learn it if the system has the saddlepath property – with one stable and one unstable eigenvalue — but only if the one unstable eigenvalue is negative. We show theoretically that our results cannot be explained by homogeneous level-k models where all agents apply the same level k depth of reasoning to their choices, including the naïve learning model. However, our results can be explained by a mixed cognitive-levels model, including the adaptive learning model. We also run a horserace between many models used in the literature with the winner being a simple mixed model with levels 0, 1, and equilibrium reasoning.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Mikhail Anufriev","John Duffy","Valentyn Panchenko"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105417","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-28dc6a47776bebc2","title":"Human capital composition and long-run economic growth","abstract":"This study examines the impact of human capital composition on technological progress and its role in influencing the transition from stagnation to growth and the persistent income disparities across the globe. It posits that the trade-off between higher and lower education within an economy results in a trade-off between innovation and technology adoption. While highly educated individuals drive technological innovation, a workforce without adequate education can hinder technology adoption, thereby delaying the transition from stagnation to growth. Moreover, technology adoption complements technological progress especially in the modern era, when innovations are more challenging to adopt, thereby enhancing economic growth. This study provides empirical evidence to support the theoretical predictions. Overall, the findings form the basis for future studies on the critical role of human capital composition in economic development and offer novel insights for shaping education reforms at different stages of development.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Mario F. Carillo"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106760","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-28f0e0ca606ff0c8","title":"Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression","abstract":"Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.","wordCount":198,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Patrice Baubeau","Éric Monnet","Angelo Riva","Stefano Ungaro"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12972","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-28f2be48df9452d7","title":"Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data","abstract":"We document households' spending responses to a stimulus payment in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. In response to the pandemic, the Japanese government launched a universal cash entitlement program offering a sizable lump sum of money to all residents to alleviate the financial burden of the pandemic on households. The timings of cash deposits varied substantially across households due to unexpected delays in administrative procedures. Using a unique panel of 2.8 million bank accounts, we find an immediate jump in spending during the week of payments, followed by moderately elevated levels of spending that persist for more than one month after payments are received. We also document sizable heterogeneity in consumption responses by recipients' financial status and demographic characteristics. In particular, demand deposit balances play a more crucial role than other financial asset holdings, suggesting the importance of the wealthy hand-to-mouth.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["So Kubota","Koichiro Onishi","Yuta Toyama"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.05.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-290289d6fb7598ea","title":"Peer-to-Peer Lenders Versus Banks: Substitutes or Complements?","abstract":"This paper studies whether, in the consumer credit market, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms serve as substitutes for banks or instead as complements. I develop a conceptual framework and derive testable predictions to distinguish between these two possibilities. Using a regulatory change as an exogenous shock to bank credit supply, I find that P2P lending is a substitute for bank lending in terms of serving infra-marginal bank borrowers yet complements bank lending with respect to small loans. These results indicate that the credit expansion resulting from P2P lending likely occurs only among borrowers who already have access to bank credit.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Huan Tang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy137","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-290552b24e516372","title":"How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?","abstract":"We explain when and how staggered difference-in-differences regression estimators, commonly applied to assess the impact of policy changes, are biased. These biases are likely to be relevant for a large portion of research settings in finance, accounting, and law that rely on staggered treatment timing, and can result in Type-I and Type-II errors. We summarize three alternative estimators developed in the econometrics and applied literature for addressing these biases, including their differences and tradeoffs. We apply these estimators to re-examine prior published results and show, in many cases, the alternative causal estimates or inferences differ substantially from prior papers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Andrew C. Baker","David F. Larcker","Charles C. Y. Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.01.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-290660ba5085faac","title":"Does a firm’s supplier concentration affect its cash holding?","abstract":"High supplier concentration (SC) of a firm can weaken the firm’s bargaining power, which reduces its profitability and internal funds. Also, high SC likely increases the firm’s exposure to supply shocks, which results in high costs of external financing. Consequently, high-SC firms will incline to hold more cash due to the precautionary concern. However, there is little research into the effect of SC on cash holdings. This paper investigates how SC affects cash holdings with Chinese firms over 2009–2016. We find that a firm’s cash holding increases with its SC. Further investigations show that this positive relation stems from the unfavorable impact of SC on trade credit and equity financing. Our results are robust to different tests including the instrumental variable approach and the propensity score matching. Our findings are new to the literature and help to explain the cash holding puzzle. Our study also indicates that choosing supplier concentration adequately is important in maintaining a firm’s financial health.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Xindong Zhang","Meifeng Zou","Weimin Liu","Yuefei Zhang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.01.025","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-290ca5a953020dd5","title":"A Macroeconomic Model With Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries","abstract":"How much capital should financial intermediaries hold? We propose a general equilibrium model with a financial sector that makes risky long‐term loans to firms, funded by deposits from savers. Government guarantees create a role for bank capital regulation. The model captures the sharp and persistent drop in macro‐economic aggregates and credit provision as well as the sharp change in credit spreads observed during financial crises. Policies requiring intermediaries to hold more capital reduce financial fragility, reduce the size of the financial and non‐financial sectors, and lower intermediary profits. They redistribute wealth from savers to the owners of banks and non‐financial firms. Pre‐crisis capital requirements are close to optimal. Counter‐cyclical capital requirements increase welfare.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Vadim Elenev","Tim Landvoigt","Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16438","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-292dc597791fb50c","title":"Growing the efficient frontier on panel trees","abstract":"We introduce a new class of tree-based models, P-Trees, for analyzing (unbalanced) panel of individual asset returns, generalizing high-dimensional sorting with economic guidance and interpretability. Under the mean–variance efficient framework, P-Trees construct test assets that significantly advance the efficient frontier compared to commonly used test assets, with alphas unexplained by benchmark pricing models. P-Tree tangency portfolios also constitute traded factors, recovering the pricing kernel and outperforming popular observable and latent factor models for investments and cross-sectional pricing. Finally, P-Trees capture the complexity of asset returns with sparsity, achieving out-of-sample Sharpe ratios close to those attained only by over-parameterized large models.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Lin William Cong","Guanhao Feng","Jingyu He","Xin He"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104024","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-29310cf063d39fbc","title":"Structural change and aggregate employment fluctuations in china","abstract":"In developed countries, aggregate employment is strongly procyclical and almost as volatile as output. In China, the correlation of aggregate employment and output is close to zero, and the volatility of aggregate employment is very low. We argue that the key to understanding aggregate employment fluctuations in China is labor reallocation between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, and that the income effect plays an important role in determining the labor reallocation dynamics in both the long run and short run.","wordCount":80,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Wen Yao","Xiaodong Zhu"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","P","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12486","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-293aa06a63cfa40e","title":"Circular economy for resource security in the European Union (EU): Case study, research framework, and future directions","abstract":"The European Union (EU) relies on imported raw materials to manufacture renewable energy, digital, mobility, aerospace, and defence technologies. A circular economy can mitigate this critical dependency, for example by recycling materials or remanufacturing products locally. These resource efficiency strategies, however, require new supply chain configurations supported by research and innovation. While this is taking place in few selected supply chains, notably lithium-ion battery technology, little is known about circularity for most critical raw materials and their applications. Information is scattered across industry players and disciplinary competences, or not publicly available due to confidentiality concerns. This article presents a case study on titanium metal circularity in the aviation and defence sectors. The results inform three industrial policy recommendations to mitigate the risk of supply disruption in the EU, aggravated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Based on the case study, a methodological framework is proposed to guide future research on circularity for resource security. This subject requires urgent attention to achieve EU strategic autonomy objectives, against the background of climate change, resource depletion and waste management challenges in a complex geopolitical landscape.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Brian Baldassarre"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108345","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-294d2a97fa413345","title":"Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework","abstract":"What shapes the optimal degree of progressivity of the tax and transfer system? On the one hand, a progressive tax system can counteract inequality in initial conditions and substitute for imperfect private insurance against idiosyncratic earnings risk. On the other hand, progressivity reduces incentives to work and to invest in skills, distortions that are especially costly when the government must finance public goods. We develop a tractable equilibrium model that features all of these trade-offs. The analytical expressions we derive for social welfare deliver a transparent understanding of how preference, technology, and market structure parameters influence the optimal degree of progressivity. A calibration for the U.S. economy indicates that endogenous skill investment, flexible labor supply, and the desire to finance government purchases play quantitatively similar roles in limiting optimal progressivity. In a version of the model where poverty constrains skill investment, optimal progressivity is close to the U.S. value. An empirical analysis on cross-country data offers support to the theory.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jonathan Heathcote","Kjetil Storesletten","Giovanni L. Violante"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx018","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-2954c45ee06b5add","title":"Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit Expansions: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Seven Randomized Experiments","abstract":"Despite evidence from multiple randomized evaluations of microcredit, questions about external validity have impeded consensus on the results. I jointly estimate the average effect and the heterogeneity in effects across seven studies using Bayesian hierarchical models. I find the impact on household business and consumption variables is unlikely to be transformative and may be negligible. I find reasonable external validity: true heterogeneity in effects is moderate, and approximately 60 percent of observed heterogeneity is sampling variation. Households with previous business experience have larger but more heterogeneous effects. Economic features of microcredit interventions predict variation in effects better than studies’ evaluation protocols.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Rachael Meager"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170299","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-29578b356daca7fa","title":"Does exchange rate volatility affect the impact of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? A nonlinear bivariate approach","abstract":"Does exchange rate volatility alter the effect of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? The literature posits that the trade balance responds more to depreciation shocks than appreciation shocks. Using monthly data from 1960M02–2020M12, we examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on the trade balance while accounting for exchange rate volatility. The study applies a nonlinear bivariate model that allows asymmetric effects and volatility to be examined concurrently. We find that exchange rate volatility reduces the positive effects of an appreciation shock on the trade balance in developed countries in the short and long run. In developing nations, exchange rate volatility promotes the positive effects of a depreciation shock on the trade balance, both in the short and long run. The transmission mechanism implies that a depreciation shock is ineffective in developed countries because the volatility that accompanies the shock diminishes the trade balance.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Mpho Bosupeng","Athula Naranpanawa","Jen‐Je Su"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106592","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-297a490076e4f90a","title":"COVID-19 and erosion of democracy","abstract":"The main research question of this study is about the drivers of democracy backsliding during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on the rule of law and the state of democracy just before the shock. There is growing interest in the political implications of the coronavirus pandemic, debating mostly the misuse of emergencies and violations of various norms by governments; however the links between the current democracy erosion with institutional environment remain unclear. We use a novel global dataset covering the period of the first two waves of the pandemic (January-December 2020), and apply various econometric and machine learning tools to identify institutional, economic and social factors influencing democracy. Our results are of scientific and practical importance and imply that the stronger the rule of law and the higher the level of democracy, the lower the risk of democracy backsliding in the face of the pandemic.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Jacek Lewkowicz","Michał Woźniak","Michał Wrzesiński"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105682","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-297ccef7419de966","title":"Quantifying loss aversion: Evidence from a UK population survey","abstract":"We quantify differences in attitudes to loss from individuals with different demographic, personal and socio-economic characteristics. Our data are based on responses from an online survey of a representative sample of over 4000 UK residents and allow us to produce the most comprehensive analysis of the heterogeneity of loss aversion measures to date. Using the canonical model proposed by Tversky and Kahneman (1992), we show that responses for the population as a whole differ substantially from those typically provided by students (who form the basis of many existing studies of loss aversion). The average aversion to a loss of £500 relative to a gain of the same amount is 2.41, but loss aversion correlates significantly with characteristics such as gender, age, education, financial knowledge, social class, employment status, management responsibility, income, savings and home ownership. Other related factors include marital status, number of children, ease of savings, rainy day fund, personality type, emotional state, newspaper and political party. However, once we condition on all the profiling characteristics of the respondents, some factors, in particular gender, cease to be significant, suggesting that gender differences in risk and loss attitudes might be due to other factors, such as income differences.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["David Blake","Edmund Cannon","Douglas Wright"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09356-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-298003425f1d4feb","title":"State formation and market integration: Germany, 1780–1830","abstract":"The rise of modern states is an important factor for economic development. We test the effects of territorial consolidation and the increase in legal capacity on market integration. The political transformation of Germany in the wake of the Napoleonic Wars, which reduced territorial fragmentation and transformed former semi-autonomous estates to sovereign polities, serves as a natural experiment. We apply a difference-in-differences framework to a new dataset of grain prices and show that territorial consolidation reduced trade costs conditional on trade reforms that replaced heterogenous internal duties by a unified system of external tariffs. The effect was equivalent to a reduction of price gaps by 31 percent. Cities that were part of Prussia both before and after the Wars and experienced trade reform saw a reduction in price gaps of similar magnitude. By contrast, there was no market integration in late-reformer states such as Hanover and Saxony. Trade reforms were the main channel through which territorial consolidation fostered market integration.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Hakon Albers","Ulrich Pfister"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.01.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-299ce1924d43b491","title":"The Characteristics that Provide Independent Information about Average U.S. Monthly Stock Returns","abstract":"We take up Cochrane’s (2011) challenge to identify the firm characteristics that provide independent information about average U.S. monthly stock returns by simultaneously including 94 characteristics in Fama-MacBeth regressions that avoid overweighting microcaps and adjust for data-snooping bias. We find that while 12 characteristics are reliably independent determinants in non-microcap stocks from 1980 to 2014 as a whole, return predictability sharply fell in 2003 such that just two characteristics have been independent determinants since then. Outside of microcaps, the hedge returns to exploiting characteristics-based predictability also have been insignificantly different from zero since 2003.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jeremiah Green","John R. M. Hand","Frank Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-299f9f1eacca495e","title":"Job Displacement and the Duration of Joblessness: The Role of Spatial Mismatch","abstract":"This paper presents a new approach to the measurement of the effects of spatial mismatch that takes advantage of matched employeremployee administrative data integrated with a person-specific job accessibility measure, as well as demographic and neighborhood characteristics. We focus on a group of job searchers for plausibly exogenous reasons: lower-income workers with strong labor force attachment separated during a mass layoff. Our results support the spatial mismatch hypothesis. We find that better job accessibility significantly decreases the duration of joblessness among lower-income displaced workers, especially for blacks, women, and older workers.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Fredrik Andersson","John Haltiwanger","Mark Kutzbach","Henry Pollakowski","Daniel H. Weinberg"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00707","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-29a2d899b1520428","title":"A Short-Run View of What Computers Do: Evidence from a UK Tax Incentive","abstract":"We study the short-run causal effect of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) adoption on employment and wage distribution. We exploit a natural experiment generated by a tax allowance on ICT investments and find that the primary effect of ICT is to complement nonroutine, cognitive-intensive work. We also find that the ICT investments led to organizational changes that were associated with increased inequality within the firm and we discuss our findings in the context of theories of ICT adoption and wage inequality. We find that tasks-based models of technological change best fit the patterns that we observe.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Paul Gaggl","Greg Wright"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150411","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-29b01fff08d792bc","title":"Experimental evidence on the effect of incentives and domain in risk aversion and discounting tasks","abstract":"Environmental policy evaluation is often criticised for employing discount rates that have little grounding in research. Yet, experimental research aimed at eliciting realistic rates will inevitably require strong assumptions of external validity, while also placing large cognitive demands on subjects by processing tasks of increased unfamiliarity. We use a controlled lab experiment to test the impact of incentives on risk aversion and discounting tasks for monetary and environmental goods. We find that, on average, incentives have little effect on risk aversion or discounting tasks in either domain. Exploring heterogeneity by treatment and socio-demographics some significant patterns emerge. Further, contrary to past work, we find evidence of domain (monetary vs . environmental good) effects in both risk and discounting.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Emmanouil Mentzakis","Jana Sadeh"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09354-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-29bcab4df1087866","title":"It’s about the process, not the result: An fMRI approach to explore the encoding of explicit and implicit price information","abstract":"This research examines the neurophysiological correlates of consumers’ price memory processes. We focus on the explicit and implicit dimensions of consumers’ price knowledge and use an experimental functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) study to assess how the encoding of task-dependent price memory affects the choice process and neural activation. The findings of our study add to the field of consumer neuroscience by demonstrating how neural correlates of explicit and implicit task-dependent price memory can shed light on processes that guide consumer decision-making. Over the course of our experiment we found that consumers did not always make consistent decisions, but that their decisions were influenced by explicit components of price memory. Implicit price memory components seem to have a more supportive role in the decision-making process. In summary, we found that price memory is a dynamic construct that is influenced by unconscious and neurophysiological processes, and we conclude that a neurophysiological perspective can add value for consumer and marketing research.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Marc Linzmajer","Mirja Hubert","Marco Hubert"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102403","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-29cc65a42109fa2b","title":"Creativity and Incentives","abstract":"Creativity is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon with tremendous economic importance. A crucial question for economists and for firms is the interplay of incentives and creativity. We present experiments where subjects face creativity tasks where, in one case, ex ante goals and constraints are imposed on their answers (“closed” tasks), and in the other case no restrictions apply (“open” tasks). The effect of tournament incentives on creativity is then tested. Our experimental findings provide striking evidence that financial incentives in the form of tournament competition affect creativity in “closed” (constrained) tasks, but do not facilitate creativity in “open” (unconstrained) tasks, whereas being ranked relative to one's peers is an effective nonmonetary incentive with both types of tasks. We develop a structural model that allows for subjects’ heterogeneity in being affected by the openness of the task, and then use the structural model to not only estimate creative output in tournaments but also to predict creative output in two counterfactual incentive schemes: piece rate and target bonus.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Gary Charness","Daniela Grieco"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx055","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-29dd197fbe27c2bc","title":"The importance of business travel for trade: Evidence from the liberalization of the Soviet airspace","abstract":"The strong negative relationship between geographical distance and trade is not well understood. I use the liberalization of the Soviet airspace to estimate the causal impact of business travel cost on trade. The liberalization radically reduced travel time between Europe and East Asia and was followed by a significant increase in trade. I find that the cost of business travel can account for a large share of the trade frictions that cause trade to sharply decline with distance. A plausible explanation for these results is that face-to-face interaction through business travel is important for trade.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Bengt Söderlund"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103812","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-29df37069f39e136","title":"Capital Accumulation, Private Property, and Rising Inequality in China, 1978–2015","abstract":"We combine national accounts, surveys, and new tax data to study the accumulation and distribution of income and wealth in China from 1978 to 2015. The national wealth-income ratio increased from 350 percent in 1978 to 700 percent in 2015, while the share of public property in national wealth declined from 70 percent to 30 percent. We provide sharp upward revision of official inequality estimates. The top 10 percent income share rose from 27 percent to 41 percent between 1978 and 2015; the bottom 50 percent share dropped from 27 percent to 15 percent. China’s inequality levels used to be close to Nordic countries and are now approaching US levels.","wordCount":110,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Thomas Piketty","Li Yang","Gabriel Zucman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170973","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-29dfc6a26c3484e3","title":"What Motivates an Oligarchic Elite to Democratize? Evidence from the Roll Call Vote on the Great Reform Act of 1832","abstract":"The Great Reform Act of 1832 was a watershed for democracy in Great Britain. We study the vote on 22 March 1831 in the House of Commons to test three competing theories of democratization: public opinion, political expedience, and threat of revolution. Peaceful agitation and mass-support for reform played an important role. Political expedience also motivated some members of Parliament to support the reform, especially if they were elected in constituencies located in counties that would gain seats. Violent unrest in urban but not in rural areas had some influence on the members of Parliament. Counterfactual scenarios suggest that the reform bill would not have obtained a majority in the House of Commons in the absence of these factors.","wordCount":119,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Toke Aidt","Raphaël Franck"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000342","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-29e9c0ad63606c22","title":"Do short-term rental platforms affect housing markets? Evidence from Airbnb in Barcelona","abstract":"In this paper, we assess the impact of Airbnb on housing rents and prices in the city of Barcelona. Examining very detailed data on rents and both transaction and posted prices, we use several econometric approaches that exploit the exact timing and geography of Airbnb activity in the city. These include i) panel fixed-effects models, where we run multiple specifications that allow for different forms of heterogeneous time trends across neighborhoods, ii) an instrumental variables shift-share approach in which tourist amenities predict where Airbnb listings will locate and Google searches predict when listings appear, iii) event-study designs, and iv) finally, we present evidence from Sagrada Familia, a major tourist amenity that is not found in the city centre. Our main results imply that for the average neighborhood, Airbnb activity has increased rents by 1.9%, transaction prices by 4.6% and posted prices by 3.7%. The estimated impact in neighborhoods with high Airbnb activity is substantial. For neighborhoods in the top decile of Airbnb activity distribution, rents are estimated to have increased by 7%, while increases in transaction (posted) prices are estimated at 17% (14%).","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Miquel-Àngel Garcia–López","Jordi Jofre‐Monseny","Rodrigo Martínez-Mazza","Mariona Segú"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103278","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-29fd867ad422c76a","title":"Can higher education improve egalitarian gender role attitudes? Evidence from China","abstract":"Egalitarian gender role attitudes are crucial for empowering women across household, labor market, and political spheres; however, the evolution of these attitudes remains underexplored. This study examines the impact of higher education on gender role attitudes using a quasi-natural experiment based on China's higher education expansion. The data are obtained from the China Family Panel Studies. Our results reveal that this expansion considerably enhanced higher education attainment for men and women; however, the effects on gender role attitudes are asymmetric. While higher education positively influences women's career-related gender norms, it does not substantially impact their marriage-related attitudes or men's gender role attitudes. Moreover, attaining higher education also improves women's career-related gender equality behaviors. Further analysis indicates that these divergent impacts are attributable to patriarchal Confucian culture, educated women's superior labor market performance, and the lack of gender equality education. We also consider the role of marriage-matching patterns, whereby women tend to marry partners with higher education and greater earnings, which reinforces traditional gender roles in marriage.","wordCount":166,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Lifang Zhang","Jiusheng Zhu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102311","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-29fdc9fb65d70d13","title":"Rails of Progress? Exploring the nexus between railroad access and innovation in Italy (19th-20th centuries)","abstract":"Railroads construction in Italy during the period 1855–1936 fostered a “democratization of invention”, increasing access to the patent system for independent inventors in peripheral areas, particularly in the Centre-North of the country. The construction of railroads during Italy's Liberal Age led to a 4.3 % annual increase in patenting, with significant impact for the railroads constructed during the phase of the Destra storica (1861–1878). It is worth noting that overall national patenting growth between 1861 and 1911, which includes the innovation hotspots of Genoa, Turin, and Milan, was 7.5 per cent. While railroads construction in Italy during the period 1855–1936 stimulated inventive activities, the overall quality of the resulting innovations remained rather low, constrained by underdeveloped human capital, entrepreneurship, and financial resources. This paper provides new evidence on the nexus between railroads and inventive activities in Italy in the period 1861–1936. We develop two new georeferenced datasets on railroad stations and patents covering about 8,000 municipalities. By adopting a staggered difference in differences identification strategy, we show that the impact of railroad construction on innovation is noticeable for the first wave of construction of the period of the Destra storica (1861–1878), when the network was expanded following a state building strategy. However, these effects became noticeable only after two decades and concern mostly independent inventors and low-quality patents. Finally, we show that railroad access fostered innovation, particularly in locations with more advanced pre-existing capabilities.","wordCount":234,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Marco Martinez","Alessandro Nuvolari","Michelangelo Vasta"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101718","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2a019b8bc0ede3c8","title":"Reducing discrimination in the field: Evidence from an awareness raising intervention targeting gender biases in student evaluations of teaching","abstract":"This paper presents the results of a field experiment designed to reduce gender discrimination in student evaluations of teaching (SET). In the first intervention, students receive a normative statement reminding them that they should not discriminate in SETs. In the second intervention, the normative statement includes precise information about how other students (especially male students) have discriminated against female teachers in previous years. The purely normative statement has no significant impact on SET overall satisfaction scores, suggesting that a blanket awareness-raising campaign may be inefficient to reduce discrimination. However, the informational statement appears to significantly reduce gender discrimination. The effect we find mainly comes from a change in male students’ evaluation of female teachers.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Anne Boring","Arnaud Philippe"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104323","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2a05ce967c0dd846","title":"Intergenerational transmission in regulated professions and the role of familism","abstract":"We study to what extent familism accounts for the intergenerational transmission of jobs in regulated professions, and we examine the relevance of social norms to counteract familism. Before 2004, local courts graded the Italian bar exams for lawyers, and after 2004, exams were randomly assigned to external courts for grading. We measure family ties with the number of successful candidates sharing a family name and law firm address with an already registered lawyer. We find that the number of new entrants with a family tie drops by at least 10%, while the number of new lawyers does not change, showing that familism accounts for an important part of the intergenerational transmission in our setting. We do not find significant differences across gender, but our results are stronger in areas with weak social norms, although these areas have lower rents from licenses, suggesting that weak social norms rather than economic incentives are the main determinants of familism.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Omar Bamieh","Andrea Cintolesi"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.10.036","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2a24871a118861f4","title":"The role of information on retirement planning: Evidence from a field study","abstract":"Many households neglect the pivotal task of planning for retirement. Proposals to stimulate employees to save for retirement in the workplace include tax subsidies, which are costly, and using automatic defaults, which may not complement the heterogeneous preferences of savers. This randomized field study shows that an information‐based intervention increases reported retirement plan participation, emergency savings, and using a budget. Employees offered access to education increased actual retirement deferrals by $26 per month. These results suggest that retirement education programs may be an effective strategy to increase retirement planning and saving behavior.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["J. Michael Collins","Carly Urban"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12349","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2a2d33b0d7ed1bb4","title":"Mergers and marginal costs: New evidence on hospital buyer power","abstract":"We estimate the effects of hospital mergers, using detailed data containing medical supply transactions (representing 23% of operating costs) from a sample of US hospitals, 2009–2015. Pre‐merger price variation across hospitals (Gini coefficient 7%) suggests significant opportunities for cost decreases. However, we observe limited evidence of actual savings. In this retrospective study, targets realized 1.9% savings; acquirers realized no significant savings. Examining treatment effect heterogeneity to shed light on theories of “buyer power,” we find that savings, when they occur, tend to be local, and potential benefits of savings may be offset by managerial costs of merging.","wordCount":97,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Stuart Craig","Matthew Grennan","Ashley Swanson"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12365","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2a55229d0235be4f","title":"Did the 1917–21 economic depression accelerate the epidemiological transition? Milk prices, summer peak of mortality, and food-and-water causes of death in Madrid, Spain","abstract":"This article aims to answer a provocative question: would higher prices, particularly that of milk, be beneficial for the survival of children under 2 years old? Using a database of more than 230,000 births, matched to deaths, we test this hypothesis in the context of a large Mediterranean city, Madrid, in the years 1915–1926. During this period an inflationary crisis spread from 1917 to 1921. We compare child survival, the impact of milk price fluctuations, and the summer mortality peak, controlling for socio-spatial segregation and considering all-cause mortality and mortality due to food- and water-borne illnesses, before, during and after the economic depression. A positive association between increases in the milk price and better chances of survival is statistically robust, but only observed during depression. Several explanations are discussed.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Michel Oris","Stanislao Mazzoni","Diego Ramiro Fariñas"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101613","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2a5818dce1f97819","title":"Screening Through Investment: Evidence from the Chinese Automobile Industry","abstract":"This paper proposes a competition theory to explain the role of automobile dealers’ investment in a vertical contract with manufacturers. Dealer contracts specify manufacturer-suggested retail prices and elements of dealer quality. Dealer quality investments require minimum financial capital where manufacturers impose these limits on dealers. The required dealer investment screens for qualified dealers and incentivizes the desired dealer quality. The prediction is that promotional services, prices, and gross returns are greater for high-quality brands than that for standard-quality brands. To test the theory, we collected data on auto dealers in China in June 2015 for an empirical analysis. Our findings support these predictions: Dealer investment (registered capital) is positively correlated with brand average product prices. In addition, the registered capital is higher when the aggregate demand is greater since high demand increases returns, which induces dealers to increase their investment.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Wei Lin","Frank Mathewson","Junji Xiao"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09949-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2a6945164cb6ca25","title":"Firing Costs and Capital Structure Decisions","abstract":"I exploit the adoption of state‐level labor protection laws as an exogenous increase in employee firing costs to examine how the costs associated with discharging workers affect capital structure decisions. I find that firms reduce debt ratios following the adoption of these laws, with this result stronger for firms that experience larger increases in firing costs. I also document that, following the adoption of these laws, a firm's degree of operating leverage rises, earnings variability increases, and employment becomes more rigid. Overall, these results are consistent with higher firing costs crowding out financial leverage via increasing financial distress costs.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Matthew Serfling"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12403","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2a6fb74579ae3791","title":"The Morale Effects of Pay Inequality","abstract":"Relative-pay concerns have potentially broad labor market implications. In a month-long experiment with Indian manufacturing workers, we randomize whether coworkers within production units receive the same flat daily wage or differential wages according to their (baseline) productivity ranks. When coworkers’ productivity is difficult to observe, pay inequality reduces output by 0.45 standard deviations and attendance by 18 percentage points. It also lowers coworkers’ ability to cooperate in their own self-interest. However, when workers can clearly perceive that their higher-paid peers are more productive than themselves, pay disparity has no discernible effect on output, attendance, or group cohesion. These findings help inform our understanding of when pay compression is more likely to arise in the labor market","wordCount":116,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Emily Breza","Supreet Kaur","Yogita Shamdasani"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx041","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2a74baf3d1ef77f4","title":"Immigrants' clusters and unequal access to healthcare treatments","abstract":"We focus on caesarean sections (C-sections) to examine access to appropriate medical care for immigrants in the Italian tax-funded universal National Health Service. We use a detailed micro-dataset to analyse whether non-native women receive different treatments compared to natives and whether there are differences between groups of non-natives defined by citizenship. For identification, we control for hospital fixed effects and maternal characteristics, and we compare the different groups by exploiting the clustering of non-natives of different nationalities in different urban areas. We find no significant differences between natives and non-natives in terms of C-sections and inappropriate C-sections. However, we do find significant differences between different groups of immigrants. In addition, we find that linguistic and socio-cultural distances are significant drivers of inequalities among non-native women. As language, habits, traditions, and beliefs can affect communication between the woman and the medical staff in many ways, we interpret our findings in terms of the ability to process and understand information between the two parties. In support of this interpretation, we find evidence of a “segregation effect”: women linguistically and socio-culturally more distant from Italy experience the greatest difficulties in accessing appropriate care when living in urban areas characterized by the presence of large immigrant communities of the same nationality. Moreover, we find that the role of linguistic and socio-cultural barriers is stronger for first-time mothers and women with non-native partners.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Marina Di Giacomo","Giovanni Perucca","Massimiliano Piacenza","Gilberto Turati"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104063","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2a762b4059761f73","title":"Labor supply factors and economic fluctuations","abstract":"We propose a new Vector Autoregressive identification scheme that enables us to disentangle labor supply shocks from wage bargaining shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate to the two shocks. According to our analysis on United States data over the period 1985–2014, labor supply shocks and wage bargaining shocks are important drivers of output and unemployment both in the short run and in the long run. These results suggest that identification strategies used in estimated new Keynesian models to disentangle labor market shocks may be misguided.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Claudia Foroni","Francesco Furlanetto","Antoine Lepetit"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12311","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2a9ad5344b220cfd","title":"Consistent causal inference for high-dimensional time series","abstract":"A methodology for high-dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. Time series dynamics are captured by a Gaussian copula, and estimation of the marginal distribution of the data is not required. The procedure can consistently identify the parameters that describe the dynamics of the process and the conditional causal relations among the possibly high-dimensional variables, under sparsity conditions. Identification of the causal relations is in the form of a directed acyclic graph, which is equivalent to identifying the structural VAR model for the transformed variables. As illustrative applications, we consider the impact of supply-side oil shocks on the economy and the causal relations between aggregated variables constructed from the limit order book for four stock constituents of the S&P500.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Francesco Cordoni","Alessio Sancetta"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105902","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2a9e2ab2e1f30208","title":"Do Investors Value Sustainability? A Natural Experiment Examining Ranking and Fund Flows","abstract":"Examining a shock to the salience of the sustainability of the U.S. mutual fund market, we present causal evidence that investors marketwide value sustainability: being categorized as low sustainability resulted in net outflows of more than $12 billion while being categorized as high sustainability led to net inflows of more than $24 billion. Experimental evidence suggests that sustainability is viewed as positively predicting future performance, but we do not find evidence that high‐sustainability funds outperform low‐sustainability funds. The evidence is consistent with positive affect influencing expectations of sustainable fund performance and nonpecuniary motives influencing investment decisions.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Samuel M. Hartzmark","Abigail B. Sussman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12841","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2aa17f485f89494e","title":"Incentives for labour-augmenting innovations in vertical markets: The role of wage rate","abstract":"This article analyses the link between the wage rate and the incentives to develop and adopt a labour-augmenting innovation in a vertical market. In a model where an upstream monopolist sells the innovation to several downstream manufacturers, I show that the wage rate affects the incentives to innovate in different ways depending on i) the initial level of wage and ii) the timing of the policy’s implementation. Moreover, if the policy is introduced when the size and the price of innovation are common knowledge, then the policy-maker can elicit her preferred equilibrium by nudging more firms to adopt the technology. Instead, if the policy is introduced before the investment stage, then the increase of the wage rate generates two opposite effects: a positive cost-reducing effect and a negative output-contraction effect. If and only if the wage level is below a critical threshold, the former dominates the latter. I argue that, under certain conditions, a policy that raises the price of labour may be beneficial for both the incentives to invest in labour-augmenting innovation and the industry outcomes.","wordCount":177,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Luca Sandrini"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102715","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2aa265fe51a7dbc8","title":"Perceived relative income, fairness, and the role of government: Evidence from a randomized survey experiment in China","abstract":"Previous studies have shown that Chinese citizens generally are optimistic about their economic opportunities and tolerant of the high levels of inequality in their society. This paper conducts a random survey experiment to examine whether the established views on fairness and inequality change after the respondents receive the general information on wealth concentration or the customized information on their household income ranking. We find that both types of information lead respondents to view society as less fair than they had initially believed. The information on the wealth concentration also increases public concern about social inequality. Nevertheless, neither information offered to the respondents make them think that government should play a more significant role in reducing inequality. This lack of demand for government intervention may be partially explained by a lower level of trust in the local government induced by the two information treatments.","wordCount":143,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Ren Mu"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101784","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2ab8e66ad1d9c35d","title":"Does Tax-Collection Invariance Hold? Evasion and the Pass-Through of State Diesel Taxes","abstract":"In simple models, the incidence of a tax is independent of the identity of the remitting party. We illustrate that this prediction fails to hold if opportunities for evasion differ across economic agents. Second, we estimate how the incidence of state diesel taxes varies with the point of collection, where the remitting party varies across states and over time. Moving tax collection upstream from retailers substantially raises the pass-through of diesel taxes to consumers. Furthermore, tax revenues increase when collecting taxes from wholesalers rather than from retailers, suggesting that evasion is the likely explanation for the incidence result.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Wojciech Kopczuk","Justin Marion","Erich Muehlegger","Joel Slemrod"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140271","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2abe68c359bf0322","title":"How Local Economic Conditions Affect School Finances, Teacher Quality, and Student Achievement: Evidence from the Texas Shale Boom","abstract":"Whether improved local economic conditions lead to better student outcomes is theoretically ambiguous and will depend on how schools use additional revenues and how students and teachers respond to rising private sector wages. The Texas boom in shale oil and gas drilling, with its large and localized effects on wages and the tax base, provides a unique opportunity to address this question that spans the areas of education, labor markets, and public finance. An empirical approach using variation in shale geology across school districts shows that the boom reduced test scores and student attendance, despite tripling the local tax base and creating a revenue windfall. Schools spent additional revenue on capital projects and debt service, but not on teachers. As the gap between teacher wages and private sector wages grew, so did teacher turnover and the percentage of inexperienced teachers, which helps explain the decline in student achievement. Changes in student composition did not account for the achievement decline but instead helped to moderate it. The findings illustrate the potential value of using revenue growth to retain teachers in times of rising private sector wages.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Joseph Marchand","Jeremy G. Weber"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22171","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2ac00b60e4f7da85","title":"Misperceiving and misreporting input quality: Implications for input use and productivity","abstract":"Farmers in developing countries routinely misperceive or misreport input quality for various reasons, which introduces substantial measurement error in farm survey data. In this paper, we motivate and illustrate, both analytically and empirically, the inferential and behavioral implications of misperception and misreporting using a unique crop variety identification data from Nigeria. Using a non-parametric framework for testing the presence of measurement error, we show that crop variety misclassification in our data is mostly driven by misperception. We then demonstrate the inferential challenges of treating misperception as misreporting and vice versa. Finally, we show that misperception induces crowding-in(out) of complementary agricultural inputs but these misperception-driven input allocations may not necessarily be yield-enhancing. As such, rectifying misperception by addressing agricultural input market imperfections may improve farmers' investment choices and productivity outcomes.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Tesfamicheal Wossen","Kibrom A. Abay","Tahirou Abdoulaye"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102869","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2acd1146c539c394","title":"Reviving the Salter-Swan small open economy model","abstract":"This paper provides microfoundations to the Salter-Swan policy framework, a graphical apparatus designed to ascertain the exchange-rate and fiscal stance of a policymaker with internal and external economic targets. The environment is an infinite-horizon small open economy producing tradable and nontradable goods that takes world prices and world interest rates as given and is populated by optimizing households and firms. The economy is subject to terms of trade, interest rate, and discount factor shocks. The internal target of the government is the unemployment rate and the external target is the current account. Downward nominal wage rigidity and financial frictions serve as the rationale for meaningful policy intervention.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé","Martı́n Uribe"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103441","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2ad4daf73dc51a2d","title":"Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India","abstract":"Can public interventions persistently reduce conflict? Adverse weather shocks, through their impact on incomes, have been identified as robust drivers of conflict in many contexts. An effective social insurance system moderates the impact of adverse shocks on household incomes, and hence, could attenuate the link between these shocks and conflict. This paper shows that a public employment program in India, by providing an alternative source of income through a guarantee of 100 days of employment at minimum wages, effectively provides insurance. This has an indirect pacifying effect. By weakening the link between productivity shocks and incomes, the program uncouples productivity shocks from conflict, leading persistently lower conflict levels.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Thiemo Fetzer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz062","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2b0bab7626567027","title":"Cream Skimming and Information Design in Matching Markets","abstract":"Short-lived buyers arrive to a platform over time and randomly match with sellers. The sellers stay at the platform and decide whether to accept incoming requests. The platform designs what buyer information the sellers observe before deciding to form a match. We show full information disclosure leads to a market failure because of excessive rejections by the sellers. If sellers are homogeneous, then coarse information policies are able to restore efficiency. If sellers are heterogeneous, then simple censorship policies are often constrained efficient as shown by a method of calculus of variations.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Gleb Romanyuk","Alex Smolin"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170154","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2b0f67598b56b166","title":"Market Volatility, Monetary Policy and the Term Premium","abstract":"In this article, we use time‐varying VAR models to study the effects of option‐implied measures of equity and bond market volatilities on the government bond term premium and key macroeconomic variables. We show that the high correlation between the two volatilities requires the shocks to these variables to be jointly identified. We find that a positive shock to the VIX reduces the term premium. We interpret this effect as the result of investors shifting their portfolios away from riskier assets. Also, a positive shock to the VIX has contractionary and disinflationary effects. By contrast, a positive shock to the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Expectations (MOVE), which reflects heightened uncertainty about future changes in interest rates, raises the term premium. Similar to a VIX shock, an increase in bond market volatility also has a contractionary effect, although the negative effects on output and inflation are smaller. Both VIX and MOVE shocks resemble negative demand shocks, albeit of different intensity, to which the central bank responds by easing monetary policy. Depending on the type of volatility impacting the economy, a contraction in output can be associated either with a flattening or steepening of the yield curve.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Abhishek Kumar","Sushanta Mallick","Madhusudan Mohanty","Fabrizio Zampolli"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12518","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2b254056e72deeb5","title":"Communication and cooperation in repeated games","abstract":"We study the role of communication in repeated games with private monitoring. We first show that without communication, the set of Nash equilibrium payoffs in such games is a subset of the set of ε ‐coarse correlated equilibrium payoffs ( ε ‐CCE) of the underlying one‐shot game. The value of ε depends on the discount factor and the quality of monitoring. We then identify conditions under which there are equilibria with “cheap talk” that result in nearly efficient payoffs outside the set ε ‐CCE. Thus, in our model, communication is necessary for cooperation.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Yu Awaya","Vijay Krishna"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3049","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-2b3ccb6ceb23164d","title":"The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference","abstract":"This research explores the origins of observed differences in time preference across countries and regions. Exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that pre-industrial agro-climatic characteristics that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, triggered selection, adaptation and learning processes that generated a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era. Furthermore, the research establishes that these agro-climatic characteristics have had a culturally embodied impact on economic behavior such as technological adoption, education, saving, and smoking.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Oded Galor","Ömer Özak"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2b43133aa7928c83","title":"Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up","abstract":"Using a new narrative dataset on fiscal consolidation announcements for thirteen EU countries over the period 1978–2013, a panel VAR analysis shows that revenue-based announcements appear more credible, but affect economic activity more adversely than do spending-based announcements. Higher revenue multipliers and, to a lesser extent, larger actual follow-up following a revenue-based announcement help to explain the difference. The uniqueness of our dataset allows to control for anticipation effects of budgetary implementation and variables that respond quickly to news. The main findings are similar if we include in the specification open-economy variables.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Roel Beetsma","Oana Furtuna","Massimo Giuliodori","Haroon Mumtaz"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103455","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2b57ebb1f14a7266","title":"Effortful Bayesian updating: A pupil-dilation study","abstract":"When confronted with new information, rational decision makers should update their beliefs through Bayes’ rule. In economics, however, new information often includes win-loss feedback (profits vs. losses, success vs. failure, upticks vs. downticks). Previous research using a well-established belief-updating paradigm shows that, in this case, reinforcement learning (focusing on past performance) creates high error rates, and increasing monetary incentives fails to elicit higher performance. But do incentives fail to increase effort, or rather does effort fail to increase performance? We use pupil dilation to show that higher incentives do result in increased cognitive effort, but the latter fails to translate into increased performance in this paradigm. The failure amounts to a “reinforcement paradox:” increasing incentives makes win-loss cues more salient, and hence effort is often misallocated in the form of an increased reliance on reinforcement processes. Our study also serves as an example of how pupil-dilation measurements can inform economics.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Carlos Alós‐Ferrer","Alexander Jaudas","Alexander Ritschel"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09358-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2b5c8e568533dd04","title":"The user cost of housing and the price-rent ratio in Shanghai","abstract":"We compute hedonic quality-adjusted price-rent ratios for residential housing in Shanghai. Our method corrects for selection into owner-occupied housing and for omitted variables. We find that quality adjustment reduces the price-rent ratio by 14 percent. Even so, a price-rent ratio of 70 in 2017 is still very high by international standards. In cross-section, the price-rent ratio is increasing in price, confirming previous findings for cities in western countries. But it is decreasing in rents. We attribute this new finding to the asymmetric impact of the hukou system on owner-occupiers and renters in China. We then examine, in a user-cost setting, why the price-rent ratio is so high. The key driver is the extremely high rate of expected capital gains, which we argue has turned the user cost of owner-occupying negative. We explore how this affects the interpretation of observed price-rent ratios.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Jie Chen","Yu Chen","Robert Hill","Pei Hu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103738","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2b70aa29ba880368","title":"Using double-debiased machine learning to estimate the impact of Covid-19 vaccination on mortality and staff absences in elderly care homes.","abstract":"Machine learning approaches provide an alternative approach to traditional fixed effects estimators in causal inference. In particular, double-debiased machine learning (DDML) can control for confounders without making subjective judgements about appropriate functional forms. In this paper, we use DDML to examine the impact of differential Covid-19 vaccination rates on care home mortality and other outcomes. Our approach accommodates fixed effects to account for unobserved heterogeneity. In contrast to standard fixed effects estimates, the DDML results provide some evidence that higher vaccination take-up amongst residents, but not staff, reduced Covid mortality in elderly care homes. However, this effect was relatively small, is not robust to alternative measures of mortality and was restricted to the initial vaccination roll-out period.","wordCount":117,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Sourafel Girma","David Paton"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104882","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2b7c0f1c1ea8e9cd","title":"“Nash-in-Nash” Bargaining: A Microfoundation for Applied Work","abstract":"A “Nash equilibrium in Nash bargains” has become a workhorse bargaining model in applied analyses of bilateral oligopoly. This paper proposes a noncooperative foundation for “Nash-in-Nash” bargaining that extends Rubinstein’s alternating offers model to multiple upstream and downstream firms. We provide conditions on firms’ marginal contributions under which there exists, for sufficiently short time between offers, an equilibrium with agreement among all firms at prices arbitrarily close to Nash-in-Nash prices, that is, each pair’s Nash bargaining solution given agreement by all other pairs. Conditioning on equilibria without delayed agreement, limiting prices are unique. Unconditionally, they are unique under stronger assumptions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Allan Collard‐Wexler","Gautam Gowrisankaran","Robin S. Lee"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700729","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2b7e68a89b74feae","title":"Technology transfer via foreign patents in Germany, 1843–77","abstract":"This article analyses the spread of innovation in mid‐nineteenth‐century Germany using foreign patents as an indicator for technology transfer. It introduces a new dataset of over 1,400 patents granted in the Grand Duchy of Baden between 1843 and 1877. The data show that Baden's technology import via foreign patents from German and non‐German inventors was important. This technology transfer was broadly based, although technologies related to the textile and machine‐building industries are prominent in the data. The decision to file a patent in Baden was driven by competition and the risk of imitation. Using a gravity model with city‐level data, we find evidence that technology transfer through patents reflected existing trade links. The strong correlation between technologies filed by foreigners and domestic inventors provides further evidence that the risk of imitation fostered patent‐based technology transfer during the mid‐nineteenth century. Furthermore, we show that foreigners filed patents predominantly in industries that accounted for a high share of the workforce in Baden.","wordCount":160,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Alexander Donges","Felix Selgert"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12703","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2b8c1536373fc999","title":"Rising Intangible Capital, Shrinking Debt Capacity, and the U.S. Corporate Savings Glut","abstract":"This paper explores the connection between rising intangible capital and the secular upward trend in U.S. corporate cash holdings. We calibrate a dynamic model with two productive assets—tangible and intangible capital—in which only tangible capital can serve as collateral. We highlight the following points: (i) a shift toward intangible capital shrinks firms' debt capacity and leads them to hold more cash, (ii) the effect accounts for three‐quarters of the observed trend in average cash ratios, and (iii) it also accounts for the upward trend of cash ratios in the cross‐section of small and large firms and in the aggregate.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Antonio Falato","Dalida Kadyrzhanova","Jae Sim","Roberto Steri"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13174","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-2b91e62b5243b964","title":"Corporate social responsibility and bargaining in unionized markets","abstract":"We investigate the firms’ and unions’ incentives to engage in socially responsibility activities in a unionized differentiated goods’ duopoly market. The socially responsible attributes attached to products are considered as credence goods, with consumers forming expectations about their existence and level. We show that a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) bargaining scheme, in which firms and unions bargain over not only the wage rate but also the level of the firms’ CSR activities, always arises in equilibrium. Incorporating CSR activities into the union–firm bargaining agenda acts as a commitment device that credibly signals to consumers the level of CSR activities undertaken by firms. The market equilibrium leads to the highest social welfare; thus, market and societal incentives are aligned.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Maria Alipranti","Constantine Manasakis","Emmanuel Petrakis"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.06.032","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-2b9964259a77eb65","title":"The effect of TV viewing on children’s obesity risk and mental well-being: Evidence from the UK digital switchover","abstract":"We examine the effect of screen-based activities on obesity and mental well-being for children, using a large survey dataset representative of the UK population and an event study model that exploits exogenous variation in the entry date of the digital television transition in the UK. The digital transition increased the number of available free television channels from 5 to 40, leading to a rise in television viewing time. Our results show that receiving access to digital television signal considerably increases the mental health total difficulties score among children, and that this impact grows over time. We also find suggestive evidence that the digital transition could have increased BMI for children. Underlying the net effects appear to be decreases in participation in social and physical activities.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Adrián Nieto Castro","Marc Suhrcke"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102543","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2b9a8942236e7ebc","title":"Leadership vacuum and urban economic development: Evidence from a transition country","abstract":"This study focuses on the impact of municipal government officials’ vacancies on the economic development of their cities. Using manually collected data on unfilled senior governmental positions measured by the absence of municipal party secretaries in China from 2003 to 2019, we find that these absences limit city economic development. We identify two possible channels through which this happens: government efficiency and economic policy uncertainty. Finally, we show that the impact of these vacancies on city economic development is stronger in cities in which there is greater pressure to promote government officials and in less developed cities. Thus, this study offers new evidence that vacancies in city government undermine that city's economic development, particularly in a country undergoing an economic transition.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Maoyong Cheng","Yutong Yao","Justin Yiqiang Jin","Khalid Nainar","Yu Meng"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.08.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2bb59ee95e5e15a1","title":"Costs of Livestock Depredation by Large Carnivores in Sweden 2001 to 2013","abstract":"Livestock depredation by large carnivores entails economic damage to farmers in many parts of the world. The aim of this paper is to analyse and compare the costs of livestock depredation by carnivores in Sweden across different carnivore species and counties. To this end, we estimate the government's compensation cost function using Swedish data on the county level over the period of 2001 to 2013. Compensation costs due to depredation by three large carnivores are considered: the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the wolf (Canis lupus) and the lynx (Lynx lynx). The results show that a 1% increase in the density of the carnivores leads to a 0.3–0.4% increase in compensation costs, whereas a 1% increase in the density of sheep results in a 0.8 and 1.1% increase in the compensation costs for brown bears and wolves, respectively. A larger share of unfenced pastures is associated with higher compensation costs for brown bear. The marginal cost of an additional carnivore individual varies considerably between counties, ranging between 1 and 82 EUR for lynxes, 0 and 266 EUR for brown bears, and 52 and 1067 EUR for wolves.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Marit Widman","Katarina Elofsson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2bb684111c8fb5c8","title":"Income inequality and education revisited: persistence, endogeneity and heterogeneity","abstract":"This article presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion – that is, increasing average years of schooling and reducing inequality of schooling. When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues of persistence and endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant and stable relationship between inequality of schooling and income inequality, especially in emerging and developing economies and among older-age cohorts. The relationship between income inequality and average years of schooling is positive, consistent with constant or increasing returns to additional years of schooling. While this positive relationship is small and not always statistically significant, we find a statistically significant negative relationship with years of schooling of younger cohorts. Statistical tests indicate that our dynamic estimators are consistent and that our identifying instruments are valid. Policy simulations suggest that education expansion will continue to be inequality reducing. This role will diminish as countries develop, but it could be enhanced through a stronger focus on reducing inequality in the quality of education.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["David Coady","Allan Dizioli"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1406659","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2bc96fad06b1c888","title":"Turbulence, Firm Decentralization, and Growth in Bad Times","abstract":"What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information increases (the “localist” view). On the other hand, the need to make tough decisions may favor centralized firms (the “centralist” view). Using two large micro datasets on decentralization in firms in ten OECD countries (WMS) and US establishments (MOPS administrative data), we find that firms that delegated more power from the central headquarters to local plant managers prior to the Great Recession outperformed their centralized counterparts in sectors that were hardest hit by the subsequent crisis (as measured by export growth and product durability). Results based on measures of turbulence based on product churn and stock market volatility provide further support to the localist view. This conclusion is robust to alternative explanations such as managerial fears of bankruptcy and changing coordination costs. Although decentralization will be suboptimal in many environments, it does appear to be beneficial for the average firm during bad times.","wordCount":170,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Philippe Aghion","Nicholas Bloom","Brian Lucking","Raffaella Sadun","John Van Reenen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180752","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2bc9c9edc7e832ef","title":"Culture and mental health resilience in times of COVID-19","abstract":"This paper aims to clarify the role of culture as a public good that serves to preserve mental health. It tests the evolutionary hypothesis that cultural consumption triggers a microeconomic mechanism for the self-defense of mental health from uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic offers a natural experiment of cultural consumption under increased uncertainty. Using primary data from a pilot survey conducted online during the pandemic and applying Probit and Heckman selection models, the study analyzes levels of happiness and propensity to help others. The results suggest that past consumption of culture is associated with higher happiness levels during crises. Moreover, spontaneous cultural practices (such as group singing) during times of uncertainty are associated with an increase in the pro-social propensity to help others. These findings highlight culture as a tool for promoting mental health at the micro level and social capital resilience at the aggregate level.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Annie Tubadji"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00840-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2bcfb6d50ad8a571","title":"Economic uncertainty and investor attention","abstract":"This paper develops a multi-firm equilibrium model of information acquisition based on differences in firms’ characteristics. The model shows that heightened economic uncertainty amplifies stock price reactions to earnings announcements via increased investor attention, which varies by firm characteristics. Firms with higher systematic risk or more informative announcements attract more attention and exhibit stronger reactions to earnings announcements. Moreover, heightened investor attention caused by high economic uncertainty leads to a steeper CAPM relation and higher betas for announcing firms. Empirical analyses using firm-level attention measures and CAPM tests on high- versus low-attention days support the model’s predictions.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Daniel Andrei","Henry L. Friedman","N. Bugra Ozel"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.05.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2bcfeff156c2da09","title":"The rise and fall of paper money in Yuan China, 1260–1368","abstract":"Following the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime to introduce a precious metal standard and deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. Drawing on a new dataset on money issues, prices, warfare, imperial grants, taxation, natural disasters, and population, we find that a silver standard initially consolidated the Chinese currency market. However, persistent fiscal pressures eventually compelled rulers to ease the monetary standard, and a fiat standard was adopted. We show that inflation was high in the early and late periods of the dynasty but remained moderate for nearly half a century. We find that military pressure, particularly civil war, generated fiscal demands that led to the over‐issuance of money. By contrast, natural disasters and imperial grants did not trigger the over‐issue of money. Warfare was much more likely to increase paper money issues under the fiat standard than during the silver standard period.","wordCount":152,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Hanhui Guan","Nuno Palma","Meng Wu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13305","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2be79240e628d639","title":"The benefits of joint and separate financial management of couples","abstract":"Financial management differs across households with consequences for financial outcomes and well-being of partners in households. A large-sample study has been performed, investigating the relationship between financial management of households and the occurrence of financial problems. To our knowledge, this is the first study on this relationship. Data from both partners was collected on having joint and separate bank accounts, on financial decision making, on drivers of financial management, and on financial outcomes. Based on the data, four financial management styles were derived: syncratic/joint, male-dominant, female-dominant, and autonomous financial management. In the syncratic style, partners have a joint bank account and take most financial decisions together. In the male/female-dominant styles, one partner (husband or wife) takes the main financial decisions. In the autonomous style, both partners have their own bank accounts and make their own decisions. As a conclusion, we find that syncratic financial management and having a joint instead of a separate bank account correlates with fewer financial problems, as compared with male-dominant money management and having separate bank accounts. Deciding together as partners is beneficial for the quality of financial management and for avoiding financial problems.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["W. Fred van Raaij","Gerrit Antonides","I.M. de Groot"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102313","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2c18e73a798c42ff","title":"Labor supply and automation innovation: Evidence from an allocation policy","abstract":"Despite a longstanding interest in the potential substitution of labor and capital, limited empirical evidence exists regarding the causal relationship between labor supply and the development of labor-saving technologies. This study examines the impact of exogenous changes in regional labor supply on automation innovation by leveraging a German immigrant allocation policy during the 1990s and 2000s. The findings reveal that an increase in the low-skilled workforce reduces automation innovation, as measured by patents. This reduction is most pronounced for large firms within the manufacturing sector and primarily concerns process-related automation innovations. This suggests that the effect is channeled through changes in internal demand for automation innovation. Consistent with a labor scarcity mechanism, the effect is confined to tight labor markets.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Alexander M. Danzer","Carsten Feuerbaum","Fabian Gaessler"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105136","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2c232b48ca110c16","title":"Shareholder Protection and the Cost of Capital","abstract":"Do shareholder protection laws affect the corporate cost of capital? To identify the causal impact of shareholder protection laws on firms’ implied cost of capital, we exploit the staggered adoption across 23 US states of universal-demand laws, which place significant obstacles to derivative lawsuits and thus undermine shareholders’ litigation rights. Using a sample of public US firms between 1985 and 2013, we find that weakened litigation rights for shareholders materially increase firms’ implied cost of capital. We further show that the curtailing of shareholders’ rights leads to a deterioration in information quality, increased risk-taking, and more severe insider expropriation, all of which contribute to heightened financing costs. Overall, our findings indicate that weakened litigation rights for shareholders lead them to face greater agency conflicts and higher market risk, which ultimately translates into higher required returns.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Joel F. Houston","Chen-Ta Lin","Wensi Xie"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700269","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2c2d94fbde5278d9","title":"Innovation under censorship: Effects on cultural production in early modern England","abstract":"Cultural innovation and quantity can be measured using machine learning applied to early modern texts. The effects of print censorship on early modern England's cultural production have yet to be examined quantitatively. Doing so requires distilling dispersed qualitative information into numerical data. An annual index of print censorship is constructed by eliciting the historical knowledge encoded in a large language model (LLM) primed with evidence from secondary sources. Application of a machine-learning (ML) algorithm to a major corpus provides document-level measures of cultural innovativeness (quality) and volume (quantity). Pre-existing topic-model estimates apportion each document among distinct cultural themes—three affected by censorship and five unaffected. This yields a yearly theme-level panel for 1525–1700. Local projections estimate censorship's dynamic effects. Counterintuitively, censorship increases innovativeness in censorship-affected themes relative to non-affected themes. Censorship has a temporary chilling effect on the quantity of cultural production though output recovers within a decade. Results are robust to an instrumental-variable approach addressing the endogeneity of censorship. Findings are unchanged when the censorship index is constructed using three alternative LLMs. Leveraging LLMs and ML to measure hard-to-quantify phenomena, such as censorship and cultural production, illuminates the drivers of cultural evolution.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Peter Grajzl","Peter Murrell"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","N","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.004","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-2c2f3a76cf6a24f9","title":"Gender Gaps in the Evaluation of Research: Evidence from Submissions to Economics Conferences","abstract":"We study gender differences in the evaluation of submissions to economics conferences. Using data on more than 9,000 submissions from the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (2015–17), the Annual Meeting of the Spanish Economic Association (2012–17) and the Spring Meeting of Young Economists (2018), we find that all‐female‐authored papers are 3.3% points (p.p.), or 6.8%, less likely to be accepted than all‐male‐authored papers. The estimated gap ranges from 5.4 p.p. (95% CI: 2.5 p.p., 8.3 p.p.) to 2.9 p.p. (0 p.p., 5.8 p.p.). This gap is present after controlling for number of authors of the paper; field; referee fixed effects; cites of the paper; authors’ previous publication record, affiliations, and experience; and connections between the authors of a given paper and the referees that evaluate it. We provide evidence suggesting that the gap is driven by stereotypes against female authors: it is entirely driven by male referees, only exists for lesser‐known authors, and seems larger in more masculine fields, especially in finance.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Laura Hospido","Carlos Sanz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12409","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-2c3fd02867f0ab76","title":"Recent trends in firm‐level total factor productivity in the <scp>UK</scp>: new measures, new puzzles","abstract":"Understanding the poor productivity performance of the UK economy since the financial crisis is complicated by the well‐known challenges in estimating total factor productivity (TFP) using only revenue data. We develop a structural framework to infer quality‐adjusted TFP from an estimated firm‐level revenue function. We use microdata for two sectors previously identified as being significant contributors to the UK's productivity growth slowdown—manufacturing and ICT—from 2008 to 2019. The revenue function is estimated using the Blundell–Bond System GMM estimator. We also use an alternative cost‐shares approach to identifying and measuring TFP. For both methods, we find an overall fall in TFP levels in manufacturing and a rise in ICT. We find a striking decline of between 13% and 18% in the level of within‐firm manufacturing TFP, and of between 11% and 16% in ICT, although with reallocation effects differing between the two sectors. The finding of declining within‐firm TFP is robust, although the magnitude varies between methods. We discuss a possible explanation for this extended UK productivity puzzle based on the relative underperformance of UK firms in international markets.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Diane Coyle","John McHale","Ioannis Bournakis","Jen‐Chung Mei"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12541","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2c3ff7fe33ffcb39","title":"When houses of worship go empty: The effects of state restrictions on well-being among religious adherents","abstract":"Using data on over 50,000 individuals between March 2020 and May 2021 in the United States, this paper investigates the effects of state-level house of worship restrictions on subjective well-being (SWB). My identification strategy exploits plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of these policies on religious adherents with their non-religious counterparts before versus after the adoption of the state restrictions. The adoption of these restrictions led to a 0.117 standard deviation reduction in current life satisfaction and a 4.8 percentage point rise in self-isolation among the religious, relative to their counterparts. Numeric caps (i.e., restrictions on exactly how many people can gather) are more harmful for SWB than percentage caps (i.e., restrictions on the percent of occupancy rates during “normal times” as set out for the building). The results are robust to a wide array of controls, including income, political affiliation, economic sentiment, industry, and occupation. Moreover, they are robust to state × time fixed effects, which exploit variation between religious and non-religious adherents after controlling for all shocks common in the same state over time. Finally, there is almost no evidence that these restrictions have any public health benefits.","wordCount":190,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Christos Makridis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104279","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2c4be6f0efebf150","title":"Advancing the evidence base for public policies impacting on dietary behaviour, physical activity and sedentary behaviour in Europe: The Policy Evaluation Network promoting a multidisciplinary approach","abstract":"We here describe the rationale and specific goals of PEN, and highlight innovations. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of global mortality. As the social and economic costs of NCDs have escalated, action is needed to tackle important causes of many NCD’s: low physical activity levels and unhealthy dietary behaviours. As these behaviours are driven by upstream factors, successful policy interventions are required that encourage healthy dietary behaviours, improve physical activity levels and reduce sedentary behaviours of entire populations. However, to date, no systematic research on the implementation and evaluation of policy interventions related to these health behaviours has been conducted across Europe. Consequently, no information on the merit, gaps, worth or utility of cross-European policy interventions is available, and no guidance or recommendations on how to enhance this knowledge across European countries exists. As part of the Joint Programming Initiative “A Healthy Diet for a Healthy Life” (JPI HDHL), 28 research institutes from seven European countries and New Zealand have combined their expertise to form the Policy Evaluation Network (PEN). PEN’s aim is to advance tools to identify, evaluate, implement and benchmark policies designed to directly or indirectly target dietary behaviours, physical activity, and sedentary behaviour in Europe, as well as to understand how these policies increase or decrease health inequalities. Using well-defined evaluation principles and methods, PEN will examine the content, implementation and impact of policies addressing dietary behaviour, physical activity levels and sedentary behaviour across Europe. It will realise the first steps in a bespoke health policy monitoring and surveillance system for Europe, and refine our knowledge of appropriate research designs and methods for the quantification of policy impact. It will contribute to our understanding of how to achieve successful transnational policy implementation and monitoring of these policies in different cultural, demographic or socioeconomic settings. PEN will consider equity and diversity aspects to ensure that policy actions are inclusive and culturally sensitive. Finally, based on three policy cases, PEN will illustrate how best to evaluate the implementation and impact of such policies in order to yield healthy diets and activity patterns that result in healthier lives for all European citizens.","wordCount":354,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Jeroen Lakerveld","Catherine Woods","Antje Hebestreit","Hermann Brenner","Marion Flechtner‐Mors","J M Harrington","Carlijn B. M. Kamphuis","Michael Laxy","Aleksandra Łuszczyńska","Mario Mazzocchi","Celine Murrin","Maartje P. Poelman","Ingrid HM Steenhuis","Gun Roos","Jürgen M. Steinacker","Christian Stock","Frank van Lenthe","Hajo Zeeb","Joanna Żukowska","Wolfgang Ahrens"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101873","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2c4cefee340b20f7","title":"The Migration Accelerator: Labor Mobility, Housing, and Demand","abstract":"What is the role of migration in regional evolutions? I document that within-US migration causes a reduction in the unemployment rate of the receiving city over several years. To establish this causal effect, I construct an instrument using out-migration of other places and predict its destination from historical patterns. The decline in unemployment is due to housing. Housing is durable, so increased demand causes a surge of new houses and construction jobs. Additionally, migrants’ housing demand raises prices, increasing borrowing and nontradable employment. This finding implies the endogenous response of migration amplifies local labor demand shocks by about a third.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Greg Howard"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180363","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2c5c61b319f63b63","title":"Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries","abstract":"We develop an agency model explaining why third‐party information reporting by firms makes tax enforcement successful. While third‐party reporting would be ineffective with frictionless collusion between firms and employees, collusive evasion is impossible to sustain in firms with many employees and accurate business records as any single employee may reveal evasion. We embed our agency model into a macro model where the number of employees grows with development, showing that the tax take evolves as an S‐shape driven by changes in third‐party information. We show that our model is consistent with a set of stylized facts on taxation and development.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Henrik Kleven","Claus Thustrup Kreiner","Emmanuel Saez"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12182","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2c659a1e36ffb17a","title":"Performance pay, work hours and employee health in the UK","abstract":"A large body of research links performance pay to poorer worker health. The mechanism generating this link remains in doubt. We examine a common suspect, that performance pay causes employees to work longer hours in pursuit of higher pay. Using UK data, we demonstrate that performance pay is associated with more work hours and a higher probability of working long hours. Yet approximately two thirds of these differences reflect worker sorting rather than behavioral change. The remaining effects are small except those for labourers. Indeed, controlling for hours of work does not diminish the link between worse self-reported health and performance pay.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Colin Green","John S. Heywood"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102387","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2c67e584395828e9","title":"Implementation of healthy food environment policies to prevent nutrition-related non-communicable diseases in Ghana: National experts’ assessment of government action","abstract":"Nutrition-related non-communicable diseases (NR-NCDs) are a global health problem, increasingly recognised as driven by unhealthy food environments. Yet little is known about government action to implement food environment-relevant policies, particularly in low-and lower-middle income countries. This study assessed government action, implementation gaps, and priorities to improve the food environment in Ghana. Using the Healthy Food-Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI), a panel comprising government and independent experts (n = 19) rated government action to improve the healthiness of food environment in Ghana against international best practices and according to steps within a policy cycle. Forty-three good practice indicators of food environment policy and infrastructure support were used, with ratings informed by systematically collected evidence of action validated by government officials. Following the rating exercise, the expert panel proposed and prioritized actions for government implementation. Three-quarters of all good practice indicators were rated at 'low'/'very little' implementation. Restricting the marketing of breast milk substitutes was the only indicator rated \"very high\". Of ten policy actions prioritized for implementation, restricting unhealthy food marketing in children's settings and in the media were ranked the highest priority. Providing sufficient funds for nationally-relevant research on nutrition and NCDs was the highest priority infrastructure-support action. Other priority infrastructure-support actions related to leadership, monitoring and evaluation. This study identified gaps in Ghana's implementation of internationally-recommended policies to promote healthy food environments. National stakeholders recommended actions, which will require legislation and leadership. The findings provide a baseline for measuring government progress towards implementing effective policies to prevent NR-NCDs.","wordCount":248,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Amos Laar","Amy Barnes","Richmond Aryeetey","Akua Tandoh","Kristin Bash","Kobby Mensah","Francis Zotor","Stefanie Vandevijvere","Michelle Holdsworth"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101907","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2c7634f0399ee9e8","title":"Financial market illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Evidence from the UK","abstract":"We examine the link between financial market illiquidity and macroeconomic dynamics by fitting a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility to UK data from 1988Q1 to 2016Q4. We capture liquidity conditions in the stock market using a battery of illiquidity proxies. This paper departs from previous studies examining macro-financial linkages by using theoretically grounded sign restrictions, and conducting structural inference in a non-linear framework. We document both statistically significant differences in the transmission of these shocks, and substantial increases in the economic importance of these shocks during the 2008 recession.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Michael Ellington"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.02.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2c766a62808b7de1","title":"Vertical relations, opportunism, and welfare","abstract":"This article revisits the opportunism problem faced by an upstream monopolist contracting with several retailers over secret agreements, when contracts are linear. We characterize the equilibrium under secret contracts and compare it to that under public contracts in a setting allowing for general forms of demand and retail competition. Market distortions are more severe under secret contracts if and only if retailers' instruments are strategic complements. We also investigate the effect of opportunism on firms' profits. Our results remain robust whether retailers hold passive or wary beliefs. We derive some implications for the antitrust analysis of information exchange between firms.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Germain Gaudin"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12272","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2c7856cb2b975474","title":"The economics of carbon leakage mitigation policies","abstract":"In a trade model with endogenous emissions abatement, we investigate the impact of three policy instruments aimed at mitigating carbon leakage: free emission allowances, a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and a CBAM with export rebates. We show that providing free allowances does not alter the incentives to abate carbon emissions, but, instead fosters the entry of more carbon intensive producers. This “levels the playing field” both domestically and internationally, and may even reverse carbon leakage. In contrast, a CBAM only levels the playing field domestically, and may lead to an autarky equilibrium. To reverse carbon leakage, a CBAM must be complemented with export rebates. We further show that a CBAM and export rebates improve welfare for any carbon price, and we identify the optimal share of free allowances with or without a CBAM. Finally, we perform a calibration exercise on cement and steel sectors to simulate the effects of the CBAM recently adopted by the European Union. Our model predicts a scenario with reverse carbon leakage and significant welfare gains for both sectors.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Stéfan Ambec","Federico Esposito","Antonia Pacelli"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102973","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2c7ad98e9b720abc","title":"The Hungarian twin crisis of 1931","abstract":"Even though Germany, Austria, and Hungary experienced a major financial crisis simultaneously in 1931, of the three, only Germany's and Austria's episodes have been investigated in depth. This article offers a thorough assessment of the missing piece. It finds that, just like Germany, Hungary also experienced a twin crisis. The primary reason for the weakness of the financial sector was banks’ excessive exposure to agricultural loans. The fragility of the currency was the result of an early balance‐of‐payments crisis in 1928/9. The vulnerability of the banking and monetary systems culminated in a twin crisis in 1931.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Flóra Macher"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12659","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2c814793de95defd","title":"Property Rights Regimes and Natural Resources: A Conceptual Analysis Revisited","abstract":"More than two decades ago, Schlager and Ostrom (1992) developed 'a conceptual schema for arraying property-rights regimes that distinguishes among diverse bundles of rights'. The conceptual framework has profoundly influenced research on natural resource governance, common property, and community resource management. However, currently natural resource governance has changed dramatically, challenging the applicability of the conceptual schema. There are now many more social actors involved in resource management than the local communities at the focus of original analysis. Additionally, resource management increasingly provides access to various kinds of benefits from outside the immediate context, including indirect benefits such as payments for environmental services and results-based payments for REDD+. These changes demand addition of new property rights to the original framework. This paper updates the conceptual schema in reaction to changes in natural resource governance, proposing three specific modifications on the focus of use rights, control rights and authoritative rights to come up with a framework that distinguishes eight types of property rights. We apply the framework to three purposefully selected governance interventions in China and Laos that include the provision of indirect benefits in addition to the direct benefits derived by local people from natural resources. The empirical application shows how contemporary governance changes may not lead to local people's outright dispossession, since they continue to possess direct use rights to natural resources. However, local people may be excluded from control and authoritative rights, which are exercised exclusively by state agencies and international actors. The latter make available indirect benefits to local people, which may or may not translate into use rights in the sense of policy-based entitlements. The empirical insights suggest the possibility of a wider trend of 'compensated exclusions' in natural resource governance.","wordCount":284,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Thomas Sikor","Jun He","Guillaume Lestrelin"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.12.032","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2c86910cbc616498","title":"Taxation of short-term rentals: Evidence from the introduction of the “Airbnb tax” in Norway","abstract":"This research note investigates the impact of a rental-income tax on hosts using Airbnb in Norway. We find that the cost increase implied by the tax did not induce hosts to exit the platform, nor did it lead to an increase in rental prices. These findings support the conjecture that the tax was insufficiently enforced, as it relied on taxpayers to self-report their rental income.","wordCount":65,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Marcel Garz","Andrea Schneider"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111120","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2c90e659c47b6106","title":"Measuring Judicial Sentiment: Methods and Application to US Circuit Courts","abstract":"This paper provides a general method for analysing the sentiments expressed in the language of judicial rulings. We apply natural language processing tools to the text of US appellate court opinions to extrapolate judges’ sentiments (positive/good vs. negative/bad) towards a number of target social groups. We explore descriptively how these sentiments vary over time and across types of judges. In addition, we provide a method for using random assignment of judges in an instrumental variables framework to estimate causal effects of judges’ sentiments. In an empirical application, we show that more positive sentiment influences future judges by increasing the likelihood of reversal but also increasing the number of forward citations.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Elliott Ash","Daniel L. Chen","Sergio Galletta"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12397","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2c91b5c4e574508f","title":"Corporate carbon emissions and market valuation of organic and inorganic investments","abstract":"We empirically examine the impact of a firm’s carbon emissions level on the market valuation of organic and inorganic investments. We document that the market reacts negatively to corporate investment announcements by companies with high carbon emissions levels. Further analysis indicates that the discount on market valuation is more pronounced for the set of organic investments, within which only asset acquisitions and product launches are negatively affected by the high carbon emissions level at the announcement.","wordCount":76,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Gbenga Adamolekun","Nana Abena Kwansa","Frank Kwabi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110887","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2ca6ed281a7e0686","title":"Meaty arguments and fishy effects: Field experimental evidence on the impact of reasons to reduce meat consumption","abstract":"We report evidence from a field experiment (N=561) on how different reasons for reducing the consumption of red meat (health, climate and animal welfare) impact intentions to change behavior, the consumption of red meat and the enjoyment of meals. Surprisingly, the three concepts are not aligned. On average, two treatments affect intentions to reduce meat consumption, only one affects behavior, while all affect enjoyment of meals containing red meat. This contributes to the emerging discussion of the welfare effects of nudging. We find that behavioral changes are driven by our female participants eating in company. This confirms the importance of the social environment both in explaining gender differences and the channels by which nudges affect behavior.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Grischa Perino","Claudia Schwirplies"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102667","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2cacd614905c04e0","title":"Can immersive virtual reality increase respondents’ certainty in discrete choice experiments? A comparison with traditional presentation formats","abstract":"Stated preference methods such as discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are used to elicit respondents' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental goods or services whose value cannot be observed in actual markets. However, DCEs may deliver biased estimates because of respondents' unfamiliarity with the hypothetical scenarios to be valued. There is evidence that visualization techniques can enhance respondents' cognitive ability and improve the evaluation and interpretation of complex information. We leverage recent technological advances to create an immersive virtual reality environment delivered to respondents via a head-mounted display in order to conduct a split split-sample experiment on the value of urban greenery (i.e., trees, bio-retention planters) using three different presentation formats (text only; video; virtual reality). We find that (i) respondent certainty can be increased by employing more immersive visualization techniques such as virtual reality, and that (ii) the presentation format has a significant impact on WTP estimates for different types of urban green and can change respondents’ rank order for the urban green options considered in the study.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Ilias Mokas","Sebastien Lizin","Tom Brijs","Nele Witters","Robert Malina"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102509","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2cb44adc9131cced","title":"Genes, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study","abstract":"-are associated with human capital accumulation and labor market outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We present two main sets of results. First, we find evidence that the genetic factors measured by this score interact strongly with childhood socioeconomic status in determining educational outcomes. In particular, although the polygenic score predicts higher rates of college graduation on average, this relationship is substantially stronger for individuals who grew up in households with higher socioeconomic status relative to those who grew up in poorer households. Second, the polygenic score predicts labor earnings even after adjusting for completed education, with larger returns in more recent decades. These patterns suggest that the genetic traits that promote education might allow workers to better accommodate ongoing skill biased technological change. Consistent with this interpretation, we find a positive association between the polygenic score and nonroutine analytic tasks that have benefited from the introduction of new technologies. Nonetheless, the college premium remains a dominant determinant of earnings differences at all levels of the polygenic score. Given the role of childhood SES in predicting college attainment, this raises concerns about wasted potential arising from limited household resources.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Nicholas Papageorge","Kevin Thom"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz072","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2cdcc947de7114cf","title":"A theory of debt maturity and innovation","abstract":"The financing of innovative firms must balance two competing goals. First, the entrepreneur must be adequately protected from failure to encourage innovation. However, if the attempt to innovate fails, the entrepreneur's firm should be liquidated and its assets redeployed elsewhere. Meeting these two goals is inherently challenging when contracts are incomplete and shaped by ex-post renegotiation. I investigate how firms can choose the maturity of their debt to motivate innovation. The theory highlights a novel interaction between low-powered incentives, renegotiation, and debt maturity.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Yuliyan Mitkov"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105828","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2ced77e01619840a","title":"Measuring internal migration","abstract":"Measuring the extent and direction of the movement of people across space is key to understanding spatial gaps and processes of structural transformation. A range of sources from census data, survey data, to administrative data and newer types of data such as mobile phone data have been used to examine such patterns. This paper investigates how different types of data are used to measure migration and mobility, and how complementary data determine which research questions they can answer. I discuss measurement concerns related to these different types of data, definitions of migration rates used in the literature, selection concerns and other survey design considerations. I conclude by highlighting gaps in the measurement of migration.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Martina Kirchberger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103714","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2cf7d9cd200f0fd9","title":"Vertical structure and innovation: A study of the SoC and smartphone industries","abstract":"This article studies how vertical integration and upstream R&D subsidy affect innovation and welfare in vertically separated industries. I formulate a dynamic structural model of a dominant upstream firm and oligopolistic downstream firms that invest in complementary innovations. I estimate the model using data on the System‐on‐Chip (SoC) and smartphone industries. The results suggest that a vertical merger can increase innovation and welfare, mainly driven by the investment coordination of the merged firms. I also find that subsidizing the upstream innovation increases overall private investment, innovation, and welfare.","wordCount":88,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Chenyu Yang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12339","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d10e137322c86a2","title":"Challenges in educational reform: An experiment on active learning in mathematics","abstract":"This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to improve secondary school students’ ability to reason and argue using mathematics. A structured pedagogical intervention was created to foster a more active role of students in the classroom. The intervention was implemented with high fidelity and was internally valid. Surprisingly, students in the control group learned significantly more than those who received treatment.","wordCount":63,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Samuel Berlinski","Matí­as Busso"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.05.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2d1e9327aa388af7","title":"Unsafe temperatures, unsafe jobs: The impact of weather conditions on work-related injuries","abstract":"We estimate the impact of temperatures on work-related accident rates in Italy by using daily data on weather conditions matched to administrative daily data on work-related accidents. The identification strategy of the causal effect relies on the plausible exogeneity of short-term daily temperature variations in a given spatial unit. We find that both high and cold temperatures impair occupational health by increasing workplace injury rates. The positive effect of warmer weather conditions on work-related accident rates is larger for men and for workplace injuries. Older workers and jobs in the service sector are instead affected less. Colder temperatures lead to a substantial increase in commuting accidents, especially on rainy days.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Mattia Filomena","Matteo Picchio"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.06.016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2d2666abb7ba589e","title":"US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy","abstract":"Using a SVAR model, I examine the causal relationship between Sino-US political tensions, global supply chains pressure and global economic conditions. The impacts of structural US-China political tensions and global supply chains pressure shocks vary across different proxies of global economic conditions. It is recommended to use multiple variables to measure global economic activity for robustness checks.","wordCount":57,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Yifei Cai"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112283","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-2d28f5f2af3e09a4","title":"Remittances and financial development: empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel of countries","abstract":"Remittances are the second largest source of external finance after foreign direct investment in the developing economies. In this study, we analyse the role of incoming remittances on financial development for 57 highest remittance recipient economies. A long run equilibrium relationship is established between remittances and three alternative indicators of financial development. Estimates from the dynamic system-generalized method of moments reflect lower elasticity values for developing countries compared to the developed ones. Our findings are robust across countries, and highlight the necessity for strengthening institutional set-ups to increase the inflow of remittances, which will enhance financial development across countries. The role of foreign direct investment is found to be significant in most cases.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Mita Bhattacharya","John Nkwoma Inekwe","Sudharshan Reddy Paramati"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1441513","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-2d2df003583fb213","title":"Once Bitten, Twice Shy? The Lasting Impact of Enforcement on Tax Compliance","abstract":"We examine the impact of enforcement on subsequent compliance behavior by taxpayers. Exploiting waves of randomized audits by the Internal Revenue Service from 2006 to 2009, we find three long-run responses by taxpayers. First, audits increase tax payments substantially in following years, but this effect is short-lived when third-party reporting is not available. Second, taxpayers with high income volatility revert to their preaudit behavior quickly. Third, sophisticated taxpayers are affected less by enforcement. These responses reveal how taxpayers perceive the enforcement risk and change their noncompliance according to the dynamics of the information barrier between them and the enforcement agency.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Jason DeBacker","Bradley T. Heim","Anh Tran","Alexander Yuskavage"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/697683","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d32bf3b0dd643aa","title":"Perfect Competition in Markets With Adverse Selection","abstract":"This paper proposes a perfectly competitive model of a market with adverse selection. Prices are determined by zero-profit conditions, and the set of traded contracts is determined by free entry. Crucially for applications, contract characteristics are endogenously determined, consumers may have multiple dimensions of private information, and an equilibrium always exists. Equilibrium corresponds to the limit of a differentiated products Bertrand game. We apply the model to establish theoretical results on the equilibrium effects of mandates. Mandates can increase efficiency but have unintended consequences. With adverse selection, an insurance mandate reduces the price of low-coverage policies, which necessarily has indirect effects such as increasing adverse selection on the intensive margin and causing some consumers to purchase less coverage.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Eduardo M. Azevedo","Daniel Gottlieb"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13434","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d38fa4086f736cc","title":"The Permanent Effects of Transportation Revolutions in Poor Countries: Evidence from Africa","abstract":"We exploit the construction and eventual demise of the colonial railroads in Ghana, and most of the rest of Africa, to study the impact of transportation investments in poor countries. Using new data on railroads and cities spanning over one century, we find that railroads had large effects on the distribution of economic activity during the colonial period and these effects have persisted to date, although railroads collapsed and road networks expanded considerably after independence. Initial transportation investments may thus have large effects in poor countries. As countries develop, increasing returns solidify their spatial distribution, and subsequent investments may have smaller effects.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Rémi Jedwab","Alexander Moradi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00540","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d4266af518390a6","title":"OTC premia","abstract":"Using unique data at transaction and identity levels, we provide the first systematic study of interest rate swaps traded over the counter (OTC). We find substantial and persistent heterogeneity in derivative prices consistent with a pass-through of regulatory costs on to market prices via so-called valuation adjustments (XVA). A client pays a higher price to buy interest rate protection from a dealer (i.e., the client pays a higher fixed rate) if the contract is not cleared via a central counterparty. This OTC premium decreases by posting initial margins and with higher buyer’s creditworthiness. OTC premia are absent for dealers suggesting bargaining power.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Gino Cenedese","Angelo Ranaldo","Michalis Vasios"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.09.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2d468ca5cf4ec3c0","title":"Can Changing Economic Factors Explain the Rise in Obesity?","abstract":"A growing literature examines the effects of economic variables on obesity, typically focusing on only one or a few factors at a time. We build a more comprehensive economic model of body weight, combining the 1990–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System with 27 state-level variables related to general economic conditions, labor supply, and the monetary or time costs of calorie intake, physical activity, and cigarette smoking. Controlling for demographic characteristics and state and year fixed effects, changes in these economic variables collectively explain 37% of the rise in body mass index (BMI), 43% of the rise in obesity, and 59% of the rise in Class II/III obesity. Quantile regressions also point to large effects among the heaviest individuals, with half the rise in the 90th percentile of BMI explained by economic factors. Variables related to calorie intake—particularly restaurant and supercenter/warehouse club densities—are the primary drivers of the results.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Charles Courtemanche","Joshua C. Pinkston","Christopher J. Ruhm","George L. Wehby"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12130","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d4a0f0deaea70da","title":"International Trade, Technology, and the Skill Premium","abstract":"What are the consequences of international trade on the skill premium? We incorporate skill-intensity differences across firms and sectors into a standard model of international trade. Reductions in trade costs reallocate factors toward a country's comparative advantage sectors, increasing the skill premium in countries with a comparative advantage in skill-intensive sectors and decreasing it elsewhere. Reductions in trade costs also reallocate factors toward more productive and skill-intensive firms within sectors and toward skill-intensive sectors in all countries, increasing the skill premium in all countries. Quantitatively, we find that trade liberalization increases the skill premium in almost all countries.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Ariel Burstein","Jonathan Vogel"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/693373","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d5daa49a319f44f","title":"Price competition with capacity uncertainty - feasting on leftovers","abstract":"There is ample empirical evidence documenting that large firms set significantly lower prices than smaller, capacity-constrained, firms. This is paradoxical in light of the standard theoretical result that large firms charge higher prices than small firms in models of price competition with capacity constraints. We argue that private information about capacity constraints can account for this puzzle. We provide concavity conditions on the demand and on the type distribution under which there exists a unique, monotone decreasing price equilibrium. Solving the model requires a novel approach of studying several different regions of pricing incentives depending on the realized capacity levels. We show that firms with intermediate capacities compete in an auction type interaction, while firms with low or high capacity levels compete less vigorously on the margin.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Róbert Somogyi","Wouter Vergote","Gábor Virág"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.03.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2d6b7521f65839c2","title":"Exports and Wages: Rent Sharing, Workforce Composition, or Returns to Skills?","abstract":"We use linked employer-employee data from Italy to explore the relationship between exports and wages. Exploiting the 1992 devaluation of the lira, we show that exporting firms both pay a wage premium above what their workers would earn in the outside labor market (the “rent-sharing” effect) and employ workers whose skills command a higher price after the devaluation (the “skill composition” effect). The latter only emerges once we allow for the value of workers’ skills to differ in the pre- and post-devaluation periods. We also document that the export wage premium is larger for workers with more export-related experience.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Mario Macis","Fabiano Schivardi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686275","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-2d717d5b64e05cdd","title":"The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden","abstract":"Jurisdictions across the United States have adopted “ban the box” (BTB) policies preventing employers from asking about job applicants’ criminal records until late in the hiring process. Their goal is to improve employment outcomes for those with criminal records, with a secondary goal of reducing racial disparities in employment. However, removing criminal history information could increase statistical discrimination against demographic groups that include more ex-offenders. We use variation in the timing of BTB policies to test BTB’s effects on employment. We find that BTB policies decrease the probability of employment by 3.4 percentage points (5.1%) for young, low-skilled black men.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jennifer L. Doleac","Benjamin Hansen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705880","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d76dc9693dd962e","title":"Complexity aversion in risky choices and valuations: Moderators and possible causes","abstract":"In the age of digitalization and globalization, an abundance of information is available, and our decision environments have become increasingly complex. However, it remains unclear under what circumstances complexity affects risk taking. In two experiments with monetary lotteries (one with a stratified national sample), we investigate behavioral effects and provide a cognitive explanation for the impact of complexity on risk taking. Results show that complexity, defined as the number of possible outcomes of a risky lottery, decreased the choice probability of an option but had a smaller and less consistent effect when evaluating lotteries independently. Importantly, choices of participants who spent more time looking at the complex option were less affected by complexity. A tendency to avoid cognitive effort can explain these effects, as the effort associated with evaluating the complex option can be sidestepped in choice tasks, but less so in valuation tasks. Further, the effect of complexity on valuations was influenced by individual differences in cognitive ability, such that people with higher cognitive ability showed less complexity aversion. Together, the results show that the impact of complexity on risk taking depends on both, decision format and individual differences and we discuss cognitive processes that could give rise to these effects.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Yvonne Oberholzer","Sebastian Olschewski","Benjamin Scheibehenne"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102681","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2d785c0eb5b47df6","title":"Markovian persuasion with two states","abstract":"This paper addresses the question of how to best communicate information over time in order to influence an agent's belief and induced actions in a model with a binary state of the world that evolves according to a Markov process, and with a finite number of actions. We characterize the sender's optimal message strategy in the limit, as the length of each period decreases to zero. We show that the limit optimal strategy is myopic for beliefs smaller than the invariant distribution of the underlying Markov process. For beliefs larger than the invariant distribution, the optimal policy is more elaborate and involves both silence and splitting of the receiver's beliefs; it is not myopic.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Galit Ashkenazi-Golan","Penélope Hernández","Zvika Neeman","Eilon Solan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2d813dc4ac6fbb93","title":"Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities","abstract":"In large-scale panel data models with latent factors the number of factors and their loadings may change over time. Treating the break date as unknown, this article proposes an adaptive group-LASSO estimator that consistently determines the numbers of pre- and post-break factors and the stability of factor loadings if the number of factors is constant. We develop a cross-validation procedure to fine-tune the data-dependent LASSO penalties and show that after the number of factors has been determined, a conventional least-squares approach can be used to estimate the break date consistently. The method performs well in Monte Carlo simulations. In an empirical application, we study the change in factor loadings and the emergence of new factors in a panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series during the Great Recession.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Xu Cheng","Zhipeng Liao","Frank Schorfheide"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d8c3217ba6ac253","title":"The European Marriage Pattern and Its Measurement","abstract":"We review different interpretations of the European Marriage Pattern (EMP) and explore how they relate to the discussion of the link between the EMP and economic growth. Recently Dennison and Ogilvie have argued that the EMP did not contribute to growth in Early Modern Europe. We argue that the link between the EMP and economic growth is incorrectly conceptualized. Age of marriage is not a good scale for the degree to which countries were characterized by EMP. Rather, the economic effects of the EMP should be seen in the broader context of how marriage responds to changing economic circumstance.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Sarah Carmichael","Alexandra de Pleijt","Jan Luiten van Zanden","Tine De Moor"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000474","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d8e450691447abc","title":"The lifetime cost of driving a car","abstract":"The car is one of the most expensive household consumer goods, yet there is a limited understanding of its private (internal) and social (external) cost per vehicle-km, year, or lifetime of driving. This paper provides an overview of 23 private and ten social cost items, and assesses these for three popular car models in Germany for the year 2020. Results confirm that motorists underestimate the full private costs of car ownership, while policy makers and planners underestimate social costs. For the typical German travel distance of 15,000 car kilometers per year, the total lifetime cost of car ownership (50 years) ranges between €599,082 for an Opel Corsa to €956,798 for a Mercedes GLC. The share of this cost born by society is 41% (€4674 per year) for the Opel Corsa, and 29% (€5273 per year) for the Mercedes GLC. Findings suggest that for low-income groups, private car ownership can represent a cost equal to housing, consuming a large share of disposable income. This creates complexities in perceptions of transport costs, the economic viability of alternative transport modes, or the justification of taxes.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Stefan Gößling","Jessica Kees","Todd Litman"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107335","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2d95b43db3a48ea4","title":"CoVaR","abstract":"We propose a measure of systemic risk, Δ CoVaR, defined as the change in the value at risk of the financial system conditional on an institution being under distress relative to its median state. Our estimates show that characteristics such as leverage, size, maturity mismatch, and asset price booms significantly predict Δ CoVaR. We also provide out-of-sample forecasts of a countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk, and show that the 2006:IV value of this measure would have predicted more than one-third of realized Δ CoVaR during the 2007–2009 financial crisis.","wordCount":90,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Tobias Adrian","Markus K. Brunnermeier"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20120555","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2d95d464fb218afa","title":"Compliance spillovers across taxes: The role of penalties and detection","abstract":"When the tax authority increases the enforcement for one tax, what happens to the level of compliance in other taxes (spillover effect)? In this paper, we present a simple analytical model that shows that the sign of the spillover depends on how taxpayers update their beliefs about penalties and detection probabilities for one tax after observing the deterrence actions the tax agency takes for another tax. As a result, when spillovers are present, penalties and detection may not necessarily be interchangeable policy tools. We evaluate the sign of the spillover in the context of a randomized field experiment in a municipality in Argentina in a sample of about 700 taxpayers who are liable for both the property and gross-sales taxes. The evidence from the intervention indicates that the spillover from a message that increases the salience of penalties and enforcement for the property tax on the declaration in the gross-sales tax is positive. Those in the treatment group increase their reported tax by two percentage points more than the control group. This result has ample implications for researchers bringing interventions to the field and for governments’ enforcement strategies.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Andrea López-Luzuriaga","Carlos Scartascini"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.06.015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2d98143db781d130","title":"Demand heterogeneity for index-based insurance: The case for flexible products","abstract":"A substantial literature has analyzed the challenges around weather index insurance, yet an important design issue has been generally overlooked. Most index insurance products have so far been characterized by a one-size-fits-all payout structure, intended for a representative farmer, at the cost of ignoring considerable heterogeneity in risk profiles. This paper provides unique evidence on the ways in which heterogeneity in farmers’ risk exposure affects their demand for insurance. We analyze a set of flexible insurance products against excess rainfall and exploit the substantial variation in insurance portfolios demanded by farmers. We explore the relevance of alternative sources of heterogeneity by extending a simple expected utility decision model and relying on structural estimation to test their significance. We find important aspects of farmer heterogeneity directly affecting their demand for insurance. We quantify the benefits of a flexible scheme by comparing farmer welfare to that achieved under alternative counterfactual insurance options.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Francisco Ceballos","Miguel Robles"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102515","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2d9b327d60cbc306","title":"Positive Health Externalities of Mandating Paid Sick Leave","abstract":"A growing economic literature studies the optimal design of social insurance systems and the empirical identification of welfare‐relevant externalities. In this paper, we test whether mandating employee access to paid sick leave has reduced influenza‐like‐illness (ILI) transmission rates as well as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality rates in the United States. Using uniquely compiled data from administrative sources at the state‐week level from 2010 to 2018 along with difference‐in‐differences methods, we present quasi‐experimental evidence that sick pay mandates have causally reduced doctor‐certified ILI rates at the population level. On average, ILI rates fell by about 11 percent or 290 ILI cases per 100,000 patients per week in the first year.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Stefan Pichler","Katherine Wen","Nicolas R. Ziebarth"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22284","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2da5ea86a9c3607a","title":"Platform Governance","abstract":"Platforms that intermediate trades—such as Amazon, Airbnb, and eBay—play a regulatory role in deciding how to govern the marketplaces they create. We propose a framework to analyze a platform’s nonprice governance design and its incentive to act in a welfare-enhancing manner. We show that the platform’s governance design can be distorted toward inducing insufficient or excessive seller competition, depending on the nature of the fee instrument employed by the platform. These results are illustrated with micro-founded applications to a platform’s control over seller entry, information provision and recommendations, quality standards, and search-design choices.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Tat‐How Teh"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190307","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2daee8fa0776e98a","title":"Soda wars: The effect of a soda tax election on university beverage sales","abstract":"We examine how soda sales changed due to the campaign attention and election outcome of a local excise tax on sugar‐sweetened beverages. Using panel data of beverage sales from university retailers in Berkeley, California, we estimate that soda purchases relative to control beverages significantly dropped immediately after the election, months before the tax was implemented in the city of Berkeley or on campus. Supplemental scanner data from off‐campus retailers reveal this result is not unique to the university setting. Our findings suggest soda tax media coverage and election outcomes can have larger effects on purchasing behavior than the tax itself.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Rebecca Taylor","Scott Kaplan","Sofia Berto Villas‐Boas","Kevin Jung"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12776","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2dc0834f187ab4e5","title":"What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia","abstract":"This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut‐off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi‐sector open‐economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut‐off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Rüdiger Bachmann","David Baqaee","Christian Bayer","Moritz Kuhn","Andreas Löschel","Benjamin Moll","Andreas Peichl","Karen Pittel","Moritz Schularick"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12546","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2ddc76021cf087aa","title":"A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions","abstract":"A comprehensive methodology for inference in vector autoregressions (VARs) using sign and other structural restrictions is developed. The reduced-form VAR disturbances are driven by a few common factors and structural identification restrictions can be incorporated in their loadings in the form of parametric restrictions. A Gibbs sampler is derived that allows for reduced-form parameters and structural restrictions to be sampled efficiently in one step. A key benefit of the proposed approach is that it allows for treating parameter estimation and structural inference as a joint problem. An additional benefit is that the methodology can scale to large VARs with multiple shocks, and it can be extended to accommodate non-linearities, asymmetries, and numerous other interesting empirical features. The excellent properties of the new algorithm for inference are explored using synthetic data experiments, and by revisiting the role of financial factors in economic fluctuations using identification based on sign restrictions.","wordCount":148,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Dimitris Korobilis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104241","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2defa51192edb07a","title":"Aid, China, and Growth: Evidence from a New Global Development Finance Dataset","abstract":"This article introduces a new dataset of official financing from China to 138 developing countries between 2000 and 2014. It investigates whether Chinese development finance affects economic growth in recipient countries. The results demonstrate that Chinese development finance boosts short-term economic growth. An additional project increases growth by between 0.41 and 1.49 percentage points 2 years after commitment, on average. While this study does not find that significant financial support from China impairs the overall effectiveness of aid from Western donors, aid from the United States tends to be more effective in countries that receive no substantial support from China.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Axel Dreher","Andreas Fuchs","Bradley C. Parks","Austin Strange","Michael J. Tierney"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/85206","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2df9406ef2ae5bb5","title":"Push‐me pull‐you: comparative advertising in the OTC analgesics industry","abstract":"We derive equilibrium incentives to use comparative advertising that pushes up own brand perception and pulls down the brand image of targeted rivals. Data on content and spending for all TV advertisements in Over‐The‐ Counter (OTC) analgesics enable us to construct matrices of rival targeting expenditures and estimate the structural model. Using brands' optimal choices, these attack matrices identify diversion ratios, from which we derive comparative advertising damage measures. We find that comparative advertising causes more damage to the targeted rival than benefit to the advertiser. We simulate banning comparative advertising to find industry profits rise.","wordCount":96,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Simon P. Anderson","Federico Ciliberto","Jūra Liaukonytė","Régis Renault"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12162","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2e0425893dc3335b","title":"Individuals’ responsiveness to marginal tax rates: Evidence from bunching in the Australian personal income tax","abstract":"We examine individuals’ responsiveness to marginal tax rates using the universe of Australian taxpayer records from 2000 to 2018. Unlike studies from other countries, we find sharp bunching at all kink points. The estimated Elasticities of Taxable Income (ETI) range from effectively zero for wage earners to 0.23 for self-employed individuals. There is substantial heterogeneity in responses to changes in marginal tax rates across subgroups, with higher elasticities for married females, females with children, younger individuals, and those with greater opportunity to shift income within the household. Our findings suggest that individuals’ responsiveness is a function of the marginal tax rates and the tax system's structure and administration.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Shane D. Johnson","Robert Breunig","Miguel Olivo-Villabrille","Arezou Zaresani"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102461","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2e0616c8c361cd4a","title":"Identifying the Link Between Food Security and Incarceration","abstract":"Previous work has found that incarceration (defined as confinement in an adult correctional facility) has a variety of impacts on the incarcerated individual and their families including effects on employment and income, educational outcomes of children, and food insecurity (Wallace and Cox 2012). However, previous literature does not identify a causal impact of incarceration on food insecurity. From a policy perspective, identification of a causal link may aid in understanding why some affected families experience food insecurity, while similarly situated families do not. In this article, we utilize microlevel data from the Fragile Families and Child Well Being Study to provide evidence of a causal impact of incarceration on food insecurity. This is an important dynamic to understand because the prevalence of incarceration in the United States is relatively high, especially among groups where food insecurity is more prevalent (e.g., Blacks), and the associated externalities can have substantial impacts on families that may reach well beyond traditional costs associated with incarceration. The complex relationship between food insecurity and incarceration is estimated within a causal inference approach. We find evidence that incarceration leads to roughly a 4 percentage point increase in the likelihood of food insecurity among households with children that have experienced a parental incarceration.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Robynn Cox","Sally Wallace"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12080","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2e08a89a7fb507f5","title":"Older Americans Would Work Longer if Jobs Were Flexible","abstract":"Older Americans, even those who are long retired, have strong willingness to work, especially in jobs with flexible schedules. For many, labor force participation near or after normal retirement age is limited more by a lack of acceptable job opportunities or low expectations about finding them than by unwillingness to work longer. This paper establishes these findings using an approach to identification based on strategic survey questions, purposefully designed to complement behavioral data. These findings suggest that demand-side factors are important in explaining late-in-life labor market behavior and need to be considered in designing policies aimed at promoting working longer.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["John Ameriks","Joseph Briggs","Andrew Caplin","Min Joon Lee","Matthew D. Shapiro","Christopher Tonetti"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170403","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2e22cd2f38d44b53","title":"Simultaneous multiple change-point and factor analysis for high-dimensional time series","abstract":"We propose the first comprehensive treatment of high-dimensional time series factor models with multiple change-points in their second-order structure. We operate under the most flexible definition of piecewise stationarity, and estimate the number and locations of change-points consistently as well as identifying whether they originate in the common or idiosyncratic components. Through the use of wavelets, we transform the problem of change-point detection in the second-order structure of a high-dimensional time series, into the (relatively easier) problem of change-point detection in the means of high-dimensional panel data. Also, our methodology circumvents the difficult issue of the accurate estimation of the true number of factors in the presence of multiple change-points by adopting a screening procedure. We further show that consistent factor analysis is achieved over each segment defined by the change-points estimated by the proposed methodology. In extensive simulation studies, we observe that factor analysis prior to change-point detection improves the detectability of change-points, and identify and describe an interesting ‘spillover’ effect in which substantial breaks in the idiosyncratic components get, naturally enough, identified as change-points in the common components, which prompts us to regard the corresponding change-points as also acting as a form of ‘factors’. Our methodology is implemented in the R package factorcpt, available from CRAN.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Matteo Barigozzi","Haeran Cho","Piotr Fryźlewicz"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.05.003","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-2e2cc90b2a3d6090","title":"Transmission of risk preferences from mothers to daughters","abstract":"We study the transmission of risk attitudes in a unique survey of mothers and children in which both participated in an incentivized risk preference elicitation task. We document that risk preferences are correlated between mothers and children when the children are just 7–8 years old. This correlation is only present for daughters. We further show that a measure of maternal involvement is a strong moderator of the association between mothers’ and daughters’ risk tolerance. This is consistent with a role for socialization and parental investment in the intergenerational transmission of risk preferences.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Şule Alan","Nazlı Baydar","Teodora Boneva","Thomas F. Crossley","Seda Ertaç"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.12.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2e2fda18143adfab","title":"Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence on the Role of Trade in Europe","abstract":"Digital technologies displace labor from routine tasks, raising concerns that labor is racing against the machine. We develop an empirically tractable task-based framework to estimate the aggregate employment effects of routine-replacing technological change (RRTC), along with the labor and product demand channels through which this aggregate effect comes about, focusing on the role of inter-regional trade. While RRTC has indeed had strong displacement effects in Europe between 1999 and 2010, it has simultaneously created new jobs through increased product demand, resulting in net employment growth. However, the distribution of gains from technological progress matters for its job-creating potential.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Terry Gregory","Anna Salomons","Ulrich Zierahn"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab040","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-2e38d0c8643e6e2e","title":"Overcoming smallholder farmers’ post-harvest constraints through harvest loans and storage technology: Insights from a randomized controlled trial in Tanzania","abstract":"Maintaining staple grains throughout the year and managing liquidity are two major challenges that smallholder farmers face at harvest. We implemented a randomized controlled trial in Tanzania that was designed to address these post-harvest constraints. First, we offered treated farmers two hermetic (airtight) storage bags, which helped preserve grain quantity and quality. Second, we offered other treated farmers a loan at harvest, which reduced the liquidity constraints they faced. Repayment was due with interest six months from harvest when maize prices were traditionally higher. We did not find a significant impact of the storage intervention. However, those offered the loan stored 29 percent more and sold 50 percent more maize on average in the lean season compared to farmers in the control group. Nevertheless, an unexpected maize export ban in Tanzania likely attenuated the outcomes of both interventions. This highlighted the challenges surrounding agricultural financial products in the developing world.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Hira Channa","Jacob Ricker‐Gilbert","Shiferaw Feleke","Tahirou Abdoulaye"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://hdl.handle.net/10568/119278","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2e4e54e5c564e8a2","title":"The Impact of Salience on Investor Behavior: Evidence from a Natural Experiment","abstract":"We test whether the display of information causally affects investor behavior in a high‐stakes trading environment. Using investor‐level brokerage data from China and a natural experiment, we estimate the impact of a shock that increased the salience of a stock's purchase price but did not change the investor's information set. We employ a difference‐in‐differences approach and find that the salience shock causally increased the disposition effect by 17%. We use microdata to document substantial heterogeneity across investors in the treatment effect. A previously documented trading pattern, the “rank effect,” explains heterogeneity in the change in the disposition effect.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Cary Frydman","Baolian Wang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12851","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2e5a2470946e7a20","title":"Non-monetary news in central bank communication","abstract":"Using evidence from four major central banks, we decompose news conveyed by central-bank communication into news about monetary policy (monetary news), as well as non-monetary news, i.e., news about economic growth and news affecting financial risk premia. Our approach exploits high-frequency comovement of stocks and interest rates combined with monotonicity restrictions across maturities in the yield curve. We find significant differences in the news composition depending on the communication channel used by central banks. Monetary news prevails in policy decision announcements. However, the non-monetary component accounts for more than half of communications that provide context to policy decisions such as press conferences and minutes. We show that non-monetary news drives a significant part of financial markets' reaction during the financial crisis and in the early recovery, while monetary news gains importance since 2013.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Anna Cieślak","Andreas Schrimpf"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2e6574be4238cdbc","title":"Antitrust merger review costs and acquirer lobbying","abstract":"Documenting the US antitrust review process for M&As in rich detail, we unveil that regulatory costs and risks are significant and that mitigating these risks via lobbying by acquirers may benefit shareholders. Our results show that an adverse antitrust review outcome leads to a decline of 2.8% in acquirer firm value. Further, we show that lobbying before deal announcements is associated with more favorable review outcomes. Finally, higher pre-announcement lobbying is valued by shareholders, especially in horizontal deals and deals with a larger expected change in market concentration, which have higher antitrust concerns. However, this positive value effect of lobbying applies only in firms with strong corporate governance. Our results highlight the role of political connections and lobbying for corporate investments when facing regulatory costs and risks.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Jana P. Fidrmuc","Peter Roosenboom","Eden Quxian Zhang"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2018.05.001","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-2e67f244f7befa8e","title":"Some stylized facts of the cryptocurrency market","abstract":"We examine the stylized facts of eight forms of cryptocurrencies representing almost 70% of cryptocurrency market capitalization. In particular, the empirical results show that (1) there exists heavy tails for all the returns of cryptocurrencies; (2) the autocorrelations for returns decay quickly, while the autocorrelations for absolute returns decay slowly; (3) returns of cryptocurrencies display strong volatility clustering and leverage effects; (4) Hurst exponent for volatility is more volatile than that of the returns, while they all suggest the long-range dependence phenomena; and (5) there exists power-law correlation between price and volume.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Wei Zhang","Pengfei Wang","Xiao Li","Dehua Shen"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1488076","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2e6b5dd6ddc3d8d4","title":"The impact of timing of in utero drought shocks on birth outcomes in rural households: evidence from Sierra Leone","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of timeline-bound fetal exposure to drought shocks on birth outcomes in rural Sierra Leone. We link repeated cross-section birth record data across 11 years from the Sierra Leone Demographic and Health Surveys to district-level geolocation precipitation data from the University of Delaware weather repository. The methodology uses spatial distribution of precipitation across districts to identify the impacts of extreme droughts on birth outcomes. This study reinforces both harvest and direct gestation as maternal nutrition pathways for the impact of drought shocks on birth outcomes. Results also show that adverse in utero shock impacts are concentrated among poorer households and may be mitigated by antenatal care services.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Olukorede Abiona","Joseph B. Ajefu"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00926-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2e6d2aea0daed38d","title":"Health information technology and patient outcomes: the role of information and labor coordination","abstract":"Health information technology (IT) adoption, it is argued, will dramatically improve patient care. We study the impact of hospital IT adoption on patient outcomes focusing on the role of patient and organizational heterogeneity. We link detailed hospital discharge data on all Medicare fee‐for‐service admissions from 2002–2007 to detailed hospital‐level IT adoption information. For all IT‐sensitive conditions, we find that health IT adoption reduces mortality for the most complex patients but does not affect outcomes for the median patient. Benefits from health IT are primarily experienced by patients whose diagnoses require cross‐specialty care coordination and extensive clinical information management.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Jeffrey S. McCullough","Stephen T. Parente","Robert Town"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12124","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2e853d5cbdd940b2","title":"Saving behavior and the intergenerational allocation of leisure time","abstract":"We study how cross-country cultural differences in the intergenerational allocation of leisure time affect savings and working time. To do so, we consider a life-cycle model in which leisure and consumption are complementary and individuals decide on the intertemporal allocation of consumption, on leisure time and on its allocation among individuals of the same generation or of a different one. The latter decision margin determines the equilibrium utility services from leisure that individuals obtain in each life time period. We show that economies in which older individuals obtain higher leisure services have higher savings rates, higher stock of capital per worker and higher fraction of time worked. Using data from the World Value Survey, we provide empirical support to these findings. Our results suggest that cultural differences in leisure allocation play a structural role in shaping cross-country differences in savings and labor supply.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Fabio Cerina","Xavier Raurich"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103722","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2e867332c7229185","title":"Household mobility and the political economy and welfare effects of local tax limits","abstract":"I apply a Tiebout model of multiple local jurisdictions to study the political economy and welfare effects of state limitations on the taxing powers of local governments, investigating the effects of such restrictions on housing markets, community composition, and the types of expenditures undertaken by local governments. The Tiebout model in this paper is distinguished by voters choosing values of multiple local policy (tax and expenditure) instruments, a mixture of renters and owners residing in each community, and different degrees of household mobility. I characterize and provide sufficient conditions for voting equilibrium even with multiple policy instruments and varying housing tenure by developing a novel application of the Besley and Coate (1997) model of representative democracy. The different degrees of household mobility following the introduction of tax limits have significant impacts on equilibrium values, the predicted level of political support, and the welfare effects associated with these tax limits. In addition, almost none of the tax limits increase overall welfare, even though many gain majority support. The only case that is predicted to have majority support and increases welfare is when all households are mobile, head and income taxes have previously been constrained, and property taxes are then limited. These results accord well with the hypothesis of Vigdor (2001)—that much political support for tax limits comes from a desire by individuals to limit taxes in localities other than their own.","wordCount":230,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Stephen Calabrese"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103656","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2ea28f59faecf3ac","title":"Boundedly rational consumers, energy and investment literacy, and the display of information on household appliances","abstract":"It is an ongoing debate how to increase the adoption of energy-efficient light bulbs and household appliances in the presence of the so-called ‘energy efficiency gap’. One measure to support consumers’ decision-making towards the purchase of more efficient appliances is the display of energy-related information in the form of energy-efficiency labels on electric consumer products. Another measure is to educate consumers in order to increase their level of energy and investment literacy. Thus, two questions arise when it comes to the display of energy-related information on appliances: (1) What kind of information should be displayed to enable consumers to make rational and efficient choices? (2) What abilities and prior knowledge do consumers need to possess to be able to process this information? In this paper, using a series of (recursive) bivariate probit models and three samples of 583, 877 and 1375 households from three major Swiss urban areas, we show how displaying information on the future energy consumption of electrical appliances in monetary terms (CHF), rather than in physical units (kWh), increases the probability that an individual makes a calculation and identifies the appliance with the lowest lifetime cost. In addition, our econometric results suggest that individuals with a higher level of energy and, in particular, investment literacy are more likely to perform an optimization rather than relying on a decision-making heuristic. These individuals are also more likely to identify the most (cost-)efficient appliance.","wordCount":234,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Julia Blasch","Massimo Filippini","Nilkanth Kumar"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2ea5878911168c30","title":"The Effects of Pre-Trial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges","abstract":"Over 20 percent of prison and jail inmates in the United States are currently awaiting trial, but little is known about the impact of pretrial detention on defendants. This paper uses the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of pretrial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes. Using data from administrative court and tax records, we find that pretrial detention significantly increases the probability of conviction, primarily through an increase in guilty pleas. Pretrial detention has no net effect on future crime, but decreases formal sector employment and the receipt of employment- and tax-related government benefits. These results are consistent with (i) pretrial detention weakening defendants' bargaining positions during plea negotiations and (ii) a criminal conviction lowering defendants' prospects in the formal labor market.","wordCount":128,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Will Dobbie","Jacob Goldin","Crystal Yang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161503","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2eb1cef222a7eb7c","title":"The Effects of M&A in Medicare Advantage: A Case Study of Humana-Arcadian Management Services","abstract":"Under U.S. antitrust policy, enforcers must identify mergers that are potentially harmful and propose remedies where necessary. I estimate the price, plan star rating, variety, share, and cost effects of Humana’s acquisition of Arcadian Management Services (AMS) – a Medicare Advantage HMO – and the U.S. Department of Justice’s subsequent divestiture order to provide insight with respect to antitrust enforcers’ success. I find that Humana experienced cost synergies following the merger and passed them through to customers via lower premiums and higher star ratings. AMS plans were cancelled almost immediately after they were acquired, which reduced product variety. These plans were of a lower quality and beneficiaries in these plans were highly inertial, so AMS variety reductions are unlikely to have caused consumer welfare harms.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jake Kramer"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10027-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2eb24ddcb36c5f9a","title":"Effects of losing public health insurance on preventative care, health, and emergency department use: Evidence from the TennCare disenrollment","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of losing public health insurance eligibility on preventative care, self‐reported health, and emergency department use. I exploit the 2005 TennCare disenrollment in which 190,000 residents–mainly non‐elderly childless adults–lost public health insurance eligibility due to budget cuts. I use two surveys, the Behavioral Factor Surveillance System and the National Health Interview Survey, in a difference‐in‐difference methodology to study the effects of the reform. I find that the reform lead to a 4%–5% reduction in reporting having mammograms and breast exams. An increase of 20% in number of days with health incapacitation and no strong evidence of changes of emergency department visits (nor number of visits). I document margins of heterogeneity of the effects across demographic characteristics. Finally, I explore the margins of symmetry between gaining and losing public insurance by comparing estimates to those from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Sebastian Tello‐Trillo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12504","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2eb408710009b13a","title":"English language requirement and educational inequality: Evidence from 16 million college applicants in China","abstract":"This paper studies the unintended effect of English language requirement on educational inequality by investigating how the staggered rollout of English listening tests in China’s high-stakes National College Entrance Exam (NCEE) affected the rural–urban gap in college access. Leveraging administrative data covering the universe of NCEE participants between 1999 and 2003, we find that the introduction of English listening tests significantly lowered rural students’ exam score percentile ranks relative to their urban counterparts, resulting in a 30% increase in the rural–urban gap in college access. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that, as a result of this policy change, more than 54,000 rural students lost college seats to their urban peers between 1999 and 2003, and another 11,000 rural students who elite colleges could have admitted ended up in non-elite colleges, causing them significant future income losses.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Hongbin Li","Lingsheng Meng","Kai Mu","Shaoda Wang"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103271","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2ec65c6f9176ba0c","title":"Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, and Future","abstract":"In recent years there has been growing interest in the mixture of psychology and economics that has come to be known as “behavioral economics.” As is true with many seemingly overnight success stories, this one has been brewing for quite a while. My first paper on the subject was published in 1980, hot on the heels of Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) blockbuster on prospect theory, and there were earlier forerunners, most notably Simon (1955, 1957) and Katona (1951, 1953). The rise of behavioral economics is sometimes characterized as a kind of paradigm-shifting revolution within economics, but I think that is a misreading of the history of economic thought. It would be more accurate to say that the methodology of behavioral economics returns economic thinking to the way it began, with Adam Smith, and continued through the time of Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s. In spite of this early tradition within the field, the behavioral approach to economics met with considerable resistance within the profession until relatively recently. In this essay I begin by documenting some of the historical precedents for utilizing a psychologically realistic depiction of the representative agent. I then turn to a discussion of the many arguments that have been put forward in favor of retaining the idealized model of Homo economicus even in the face of apparently contradictory evidence. I argue that such arguments have been refuted, both theoretically and empirically, including in the realm where we might expect rationality to abound: the financial markets. As such, it is time to move on to a more constructive approach. On the theory side, the basic problem is that we are relying on one theory to accomplish two rather different goals, namely to characterize optimal behavior and to predict actual behavior. We should not abandon the first type of theories as they are essential building blocks for any kind of economic analysis, but we must augment them with additional descriptive theories that are derived from data rather than axioms. As for empirical work, the behavioral approach offers the opportunity to develop better models of economic behavior by incorporating insights from other social science disciplines. To illustrate this more constructive approach, I focus on one strong","wordCount":370,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Richard H. Thaler"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.106.7.1577","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2ee2f76aa7fdbb18","title":"The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare","abstract":"Deep trade agreements (DTAs) are widespread and have taken the world beyond tariff liberalization in goods trade. As the importance of global supply chains and the services sector has increased across the world, shallow tariff reductions have given way to deeper commitments that address non‐tariff barriers and behind‐the‐border barriers to trade. This paper shows that DTA commitments undertaken since the Uruguay Round have increased trade in goods and trade in services by over half in the long term. Taking reduced‐form trade elasticity estimates to a general equilibrium quantitative model, DTAs contributed over 40% to the welfare gains from trade globally and even more for advanced economies. China, India and the Eastern European bloc benefited the most from trade agreements. While most of the gains in China and India came from tariff reductions, the gains to Eastern Europe came largely from deep commitments during its accession to the EU. Applying the DTA estimates to ex ante analysis of Brexit, the losses to the UK from its departure from the deepest trade agreement in the world would not be offset by new deep trade deals with key non‐EU trade partners.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Swati Dhingra","Rebecca Freeman","Hanwei Huang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12450","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2ee609bbfda71072","title":"Experimental elicitation of ambiguity attitude using the random incentive system","abstract":"We demonstrate how the standard usage of the random incentive system in ambiguity experiments eliciting certainty and probability equivalents might not be incentive compatible if the decision-maker is ambiguity averse. We propose a slight modification of the procedure in which the randomization takes place before decisions are made and the state is realized, and prove that if subjects evaluate the experimental environment in that way (first-risk, second-uncertainty), incentive compatibility may be restored.","wordCount":72,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Yoram Halevy","Chen Li"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09739-2","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-2eebe971c20cbdba","title":"What drives smallholder farmers’ willingness to pay for a new farm technology? Evidence from an experimental auction in Kenya","abstract":"We use an incentive compatible experimental auction to measure demand for a new agricultural technology, a triple layered hermetic storage bag. When used properly, the bag creates an airtight seal that reduces storage loss from insect pests and neutralizes aflatoxin contamination in stored grain. We find that demand for this new technology is highly elastic (4.3) and that the wholesaler could increase profit by lowering the price. We also find that farmers' valuation for the bag is not significantly different based on the medium through which information about it is communicated to them, either text, audio or video messages. This suggests that practitioners should use the cheapest option for disseminating information, which is text messaging in this context. In addition, we find that farmers who have prior awareness of the bag are willing to pay 20% more on average than those previously unaware of it. In total, the highly elastic demand for the improved bags, along with the fact that prior awareness of the bag leads to higher willingness to pay, suggests that a one-time price subsidy for the new technology could spur demand and increase future adoption.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Hira Channa","Amy Z. Chen","Patricia Pina","Jacob Ricker‐Gilbert","Daniel Stein"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.03.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2f0a9d93af0e896d","title":"The effect of learning on climate policy under fat-tailed risk","abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of learning on climate policy under fat tailed risk about climate change. We construct an endogenous learning model with fat-tailed uncertainty about the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a decision maker with a possibility of learning lowers efforts to reduce carbon emissions relative to the no-learning case. The larger the tail effect, the larger the counteracting learning effect because learning reduces the marginal benefit of emissions control compared to the case where there is no learning. The optimal decisions (summarized by the carbon tax level) in the learning case are less sensitive to the true value of the uncertain variable than the decisions in the uncertainty case. Learning lets uncertainty converge to the true value of the state in the sense that the variance approaches zero as information accumulates.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["In Chang Hwang","Frédéric Reynès","Richard S.J. Tol"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/The_effect_of_learning_on_climate_policy_under_fat-tailed_risk/23439746","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2f1444626b1bf5e5","title":"Taxing Childcare: Effects on Childcare Choices, Family Labor Supply, and Children","abstract":"Previous studies report a range of estimates for the response of female labor supply and childcare attendance to childcare prices. We shed new light on these questions using a policy reform that raises the price of public day care. After the reform, children are 8 percentage points less likely to attend public day care, which implies a compensated price elasticity of −0.6. There is little labor supply response in the full sample, although there are declines for vulnerable subgroups. Spillover effects on older siblings and fertility decisions show that the policy affects the whole household, not just targeted family members.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Christina Gathmann","Björn Sass"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696143","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2f2505cb3228ffb8","title":"An autocovariance-based learning framework for high-dimensional functional time series","abstract":"Many scientific and economic applications involve the statistical learning of high-dimensional functional time series, where the number of functional variables is comparable to, or even greater than, the number of serially dependent functional observations. In this paper, we model observed functional time series, which are subject to errors in the sense that each functional datum arises as the sum of two uncorrelated components, one dynamic and one white noise. Motivated from the fact that the autocovariance function of observed functional time series automatically filters out the noise term, we propose a three-step framework by first performing autocovariance-based dimension reduction, then formulating a novel autocovariance-based block regularized minimum distance estimation to produce block sparse estimates, and based on which obtaining the final functional sparse estimates. We investigate theoretical properties of the proposed estimators, and illustrate the proposed estimation procedure with the corresponding convergence analysis via three sparse high-dimensional functional time series models. We demonstrate via both simulated and real datasets that our proposed estimators significantly outperform their competitors.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Jinyuan Chang","Cheng Chen","Xinghao Qiao","Qiwei Yao"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.01.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2f4860f96773dc7b","title":"Empirical analysis of crude oil dynamics using affine vs. non-affine jump-diffusion models","abstract":"This paper investigates the dynamics of the United States oil (USO) exchange traded fund (ETF). Daily USO returns are modelled using stochastic volatility (SV) frameworks derived from three different model classes: SV models with contemporaneous jumps in returns and volatility (SVCJ); SV model with jumps in returns only (SVJ); and a pure SV model class without jumps. Six affine and non-affine models are considered within each model class that depend on specification of the drift and the diffusion terms in the variance process, resulting in a total of 18 models that are estimated using particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) approach. Model evaluation is conducted using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Bayes factors, probability plots, and deviation measures to assess the discrepancy between the estimated volatility and key benchmarks, the crude oil ETF volatility index (OVX) and the realised volatility (RV). Our analysis indicates that models incorporating jumps, particularly the SVCJ-PLY-0.5 and SVCJ-PLY-1.0, more accurately capture USO dynamics than standard SV models. The SVCJ-PLY-0.5 model ranks highest based on DIC statistics and Bayes factors, and both models excel in aligning their estimated volatility with the OVX and RV benchmarks. Overall, the statistical criteria employed in our comparison favour models with jumps over the standard SV model class, suggesting that models incorporating jumps in both return and variance processes (SVCJ) are superior to those with jumps solely in the return process (SVJ). The affine models SVJ-LIN-0.5 and SVCJ-LIN-0.5 with linear variance drift and square root diffusion that are particularly interesting for theoretical finance applications are highly ranked among considered frameworks, outperforming several non-affine alternatives. Our analysis of the regression model for volatility forecasting reveals a significant predictive accuracy in the evaluated models, demonstrating their effectiveness in anticipating future volatility trends.","wordCount":289,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Katja Ignatieva","Patrick Wong"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101519","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2f560c1ccefe7d3b","title":"Pricing Network Effects: Competition","abstract":"We study the practice of influencer marketing in oligopoly markets and its effect on market efficiency. In our model, each consumer is influenced by choices of a subset of other consumers. Firms gather information on consumers’ influence and price discriminate using this information. In equilibrium, firms charge premia/subsidize below-/ above-average-influential consumers; the premia/discounts depend on the strength of network effects and on how much information firms have on consumers’ influence. Influencer marketing leads to inefficient consumer-product matches. Firms’ investments in information are strategic complements, leading to a race for information acquisition that erodes welfare and firms’ profits but increases consumer surplus.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Itay P. Fainmesser","Andrea Galeotti"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170226","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2f8c4e029fd6ae01","title":"Measuring consumer switching costs in the television industry","abstract":"In this article, I develop and estimate a model of dynamic consumer behavior with switching costs in the market for paid‐television services. I estimate the parameters of the structural model using data on cable and satellite systems across local US television markets over the period 1992–2006. The results suggest switching costs range from $159 to $242 for cable and from $212 to $276 for satellite providers in 1997 dollars. Using a simple dynamic model of cable providers, I demonstrate that switching costs of these magnitudes can significantly affect the firms' optimal strategies.","wordCount":92,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Oleksandr Shcherbakov"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12131","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2f8c66d9b6ad7803","title":"The circular economy and the optimal recycling rate: A macroeconomic approach","abstract":"This paper studies the economic implications of the circular economy and recycling activities from a macroeconomic perspective. The paper incorporates the circular economy into an otherwise standard neoclassical dynamic general equilibrium linear economy model, in which the production function depends on capital, labor, and raw materials. Raw materials are a composite of natural resources (the linear economy) and recycled material (the circular economy). Waste is a function of consumption but can be incorporated back into production activities through recycling. We find the existence of a positive S-shaped relationship between the optimal recycling rate and economic development, indicating that increasing the circularity of the economy is a necessary condition to augment social welfare in a growing economy. The optimal recycling rate depends positively on the pollution damage and waste content of final consumption goods. Simulation of the model supports the existence of a steady-state Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) relationship between the stock of waste and the output in the presence of a circular economy. Finally, we find that while a permanent improvement in recycling technology has positive effects on output, expanding the circularity of the economy, an increase in the cost of natural material has harmful effects on output, increasing waste accumulation and reducing recycling.","wordCount":204,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Anelí Bongers","Pablo Casas"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107504","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-2f9decf2069c6dc0","title":"Spring Forward at Your Own Risk: Daylight Saving Time and Fatal Vehicle Crashes","abstract":"Daylight Saving Time (DST) impacts over 1.5 billion people, yet many of its impacts on practicing populations remain uncertain. Exploiting the discrete nature of DST transitions and a 2007 policy change, I estimate the impact of DST on fatal automobile crashes. My results imply that from 2002–2011 the transition into DST caused over 30 deaths at a social cost of $275 million annually. Employing four tests to decompose the aggregate effect into an ambient light or sleep mechanism, I find that shifting ambient light only reallocates fatalities within a day, while sleep deprivation caused by the spring transition increases risk.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Austin C. Smith"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140100","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2fc0187e3104bda7","title":"China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850","abstract":"As a result of recent advances in historical national accounting, estimates of GDP per capita are now available for a number of European economies back to the medieval period, including Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain. The approach has also been extended to Asian economies, including India and Japan. So far, however, China, which has been at the center of the Great Divergence debate, has been absent from this approach. This article adds China to the picture, showing that the Great Divergence began earlier than originally suggested by the California School, but later than implied by older Eurocentric writers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Stephen Broadberry","Hanhui Guan","David Daokui Li"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000529","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2fc2b8a0f140842e","title":"The Strategic Value of Carbon Tariffs","abstract":"We ask whether the threat of carbon tariffs might lower the cost of reductions in world carbon emissions by inducing unregulated regions to adopt emission controls. We use a numerical model to generate payoffs of a game in which a coalition regulates emissions and chooses whether to employ carbon tariffs against unregulated regions. Unregulated regions respond by abating, retaliating, or ignoring the tariffs. In the Nash equilibrium, the use of tariffs is a credible and effective threat. It induces cooperation from noncoalition regions that lowers the cost of global abatement substantially relative to the case where the coalition acts alone.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Christoph Böhringer","Jared C. Carbone","Thomas F. Rutherford"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20130327","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-2fcea160bf0c3859","title":"Small things, big impact: The network-mediated spillover effect through a transport connectivity enhancement project","abstract":"This study examines a 4.3 km expansion of Singapore's metro transit system. Despite a short line, it better connected existing lines and improved the connectivity levels of numerous stations across the city, as evidenced by connectivity indices. The improvement allowed residents living near those stations to access other places more easily, leading to greater convenience and higher home value in those stations' neighborhoods. Using difference-in-differences to compare housing price and connectivity changes in all neighborhoods with or without a station, we find that a 1% improvement in connectivity can increase local housing prices by 0.37%. The identification is anchored to the broad impact of the network reconfiguration, which was caused by the new transport infrastructure, on the connectivity changes in distant areas. Several techniques and tests enhance robustness. These include an estimation of the treatment boundary that defines proximity to stations, propensity score matching or weighting to mitigate sample imbalance, event study for the parallel trend, parameter sensitivity tests, etc. The research highlights that a small transport project can generate broad impacts on the whole city.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Kecen Jing","Wen‐Chi Liao"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103897","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2fd202c9f7ea4265","title":"Short-term debt catering","abstract":"Focusing on investments by US money market mutual funds (MMFs) in nonfinancial commercial paper, this study shows that the demand for corporate short-term securities by preferred-habitat investors is positively associated with the use of short-term debt by firms. Consistent results are found when using a longitudinal dataset with a monthly frequency and a firm-quarter panel dataset; instrumenting the demand by MMFs; measuring the demand by MMFs at the level of individual issuers; and exploiting an exogenous change in regulation for identification. These findings support the idea that corporations cater to investors' preferences in choosing their debt maturity structure.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Stefano Lugo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101817","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2fd51e46a8f72f19","title":"What is the “right” geographic market definition?","abstract":"This paper examines the “right” geographic definition of relevant markets by analyzing how excise tax pass-through varies with local competition in the retail gasoline market of a large metropolitan city. Using a natural experiment from three unanticipated and exogenous fuel tax hikes and detailed station-level price data, we show that average pass-through is invariant to the number of nearby competitors across various geographic definitions. This contrasts with theoretical predictions and prior island-based evidence, suggesting that the entire metropolitan area functions as a single market. Our findings challenge standard isodistance- or isochrone-based market delineations used in academic research and competition policy.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Christos Genakos","Themistoklis Kampouris"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103266","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2fe697d5ae61ee48","title":"Sustainable finance literacy and the determinants of sustainable investing","abstract":"In this paper, we survey a large sample of Swiss households to measure sustainable finance literacy, which we define as the knowledge and skill of identifying and assessing financial products according to their reported sustainability-related characteristics. To this end, we use multiple-choice questions. Furthermore, we measure Swiss private investors' level of awareness about sustainable financial products using open-ended questions. We find that Swiss households, which are generally highly financially literate by international standards, exhibit low levels of sustainable financial literacy compared to the current working definitions of sustainable finance. Moreover, despite its low level, knowledge about sustainable finance is a significant factor in the reported ownership of sustainable products. The empirical results also show a relatively low level of awareness. Generally, these empirical findings suggest a need to create transparent regulatory standards and strengthen information campaigns about sustainable financial products.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Massimo Filippini","Markus Leippold","Tobias Wekhof"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107167","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-2ff6f1557bae1726","title":"Corporate tax evasion: Evidence from international trade","abstract":"This paper investigates how firms misreport their imports and exports to lower their reported taxable profits and evade corporate income taxes (CIT), which I call the trade evasion channel. Based on correlations between tax rates and mirror statistics of trade flows between countries at the product level, I find evidence suggesting that firms under-report exports (sales) and imports (costs) simultaneously to lower reported taxable profits while maintaining consistent income statements. For a representative firm, the resulting elasticity of reported taxable profits is 0.24, which suggests that the trade evasion channel is quantitatively important. Multinational firms do not exploit this channel, nor do firms in countries with a large informal economy, where other evasion options are available.","wordCount":116,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Adrien Bussy"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104571","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-300141f64d5884e1","title":"Physicians Treating Physicians: Information and Incentives in Childbirth","abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on the interaction between patient information and physician financial incentives. Using rich microdata on childbirth, we compare the treatment of physicians when they are patients with that of comparable nonphysicians. We also exploit the presence of HMO-owned hospitals to determine how the treatment gap varies with providers’ financial incentives. Consistent with induced demand, physicians are approximately 10 percent less likely to receive a C-section, with only a quarter of this effect attributable to differential sorting. While financial incentives affect the treatment of nonphysicians, physician-patients are largely unaffected. Physicians also have better health outcomes.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Erin M. Johnson","M. Marit Rehavi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140160","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-3001aee1c9dc37b2","title":"Conditional independence in a binary choice experiment","abstract":"Experimental and behavioral economists, as well as psychologists, commonly assume conditional independence of choices when constructing likelihood functions for structural estimation of choice functions. I test this assumption using data from a new experiment designed for this purpose. Within the limits of the experiment’s identifying restriction and designed power to detect deviations from conditional independence, conditional independence is not rejected. In naturally occurring data, concerns about violations of conditional independence are certainly proper and well-taken (for well-known reasons). However, when an experimenter employs the particular experimental mechanisms and designs used here, the findings suggest that conditional independence is an acceptable assumption for analyzing data so generated.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Nathaniel T. Wilcox"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09431-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-300cdadfa1e6890c","title":"Growing and Slowing Down Like China","abstract":"This article is based on the presidential address delivered at the EEA Annual Congress 2016. It discusses China’s institutional and economic transformation through the lens of the model of growth and convergence developed in Acemoglu, Aghion, and Zilibotti (JEEA 2006), which emphasizes the dichotomy between investment- and innovation-led growth. The economic reforms introduced in the 1980s and 1990s have enabled the Chinese economy to grow at historically unprecedented rates through fostering investment, reallocation, and technology adoption from abroad. The Chinese stimulus package introduced in 2008 appears to have prolonged the longevity of China’s investment-driven growth beyond its optimal point. Over the last decade, China has activated the engine of innovation-led growth. The article discusses the virtues and limits of such ongoing transition, based on research in progress using firm-level data on R&D and productivity growth. Finally, it provides an appraisal of the institutional and policy reforms that are necessary for China to continue on its path of rapid convergence.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Fabrizio Zilibotti"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx018","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3012e23e4cfb81b0","title":"The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct","abstract":"We document the economywide extent of misconduct among financial advisers and the associated labor market consequences. Seven percent of advisers have misconduct records, and this share reaches more than 15 percent at some of the largest firms. Roughly one-third of advisers with misconduct are repeat offenders. Approximately half of advisers lose their jobs after misconduct. The labor market partially undoes firm-level discipline by rehiring such advisers. Firms that persistently engage in misconduct coexist with firms that have clean records. We show that this phenomenon may be explained by some firms “specializing” in misconduct and catering to unsophisticated consumers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Mark Egan","Gregor Matvos","Amit Seru"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","O","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700735","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-302861bcd90562c9","title":"Unbundling the incumbent and deployment of high-speed internet: Evidence from France","abstract":"In this paper, we study the impact of competition on the legacy copper network on the deployment of high-speed broadband. We first develop a theoretical model, which shows that the relation between the number of competitors and investment in a quality-improving technology can be positive if the quality of the new technology is high enough, and is negative otherwise. We test these theoretical predictions using data on broadband deployments in France in more than 36,000 local municipalities. First, using panel data over the period 2011–2014, we estimate a model of entry into local markets by alternative operators using local loop unbundling (LLU). Second, using cross-sectional data for the year 2015, we estimate how the number of LLU entrants impacts the deployment of high-speed broadband with speed of 30 Mbps or more by means of VDSL, cable and fiber technologies, controlling for the endogeneity of LLU entry. We find that a higher number of LLU competitors in a municipality implies lower incentives to deploy and expand coverage of high-speed broadband with speed of 30 Mbps or more.","wordCount":176,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Marc Bourreau","Lukasz Grzybowski","Maude Hasbi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.102526","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-303b80e92b629fbb","title":"Factor Momentum and the Momentum Factor","abstract":"Momentum in individual stock returns relates to momentum in factor returns. Most factors are positively autocorrelated: the average factor earns a monthly return of six basis points following a year of losses and 51 basis points following a positive year. We find that factor momentum concentrates in factors that explain more of the cross section of returns and that it is not incidental to individual stock momentum: momentum‐neutral factors display more momentum. Momentum found in high‐eigenvalue principal component factors subsumes most forms of individual stock momentum. Our results suggest that momentum is not a distinct risk factor—it times other factors.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Sina Ehsani","Juhani T. Linnainmaa"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13131","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3040142a1a27f2f5","title":"Which criteria matter when impact investors screen social enterprises?","abstract":"Impact investors pursue both financial and social goals and have become an important source of funding for social enterprises. Our study assesses impact investor criteria when screening social enterprises. Applying an experimental conjoint analysis to a sample of 179 impact investors, we find that the three most important criteria are the authenticity of the founding team, the importance of the societal problem targeted by the venture, and the venture's financial sustainability. We then compare the importance of these screening criteria across different types of impact investors (i.e., donors, equity investors, and debt investors). We find that donors pay more attention to the importance of the societal problem and less attention to financial sustainability than do equity and debt investors. Additionally, equity investors place a higher value on the large-scale implementation of the social project than do debt investors. We contribute to the nascent literature on impact investing by documenting how impact investors make investment decisions and by providing a nuanced view of different investor types active in this novel market. Practical implications exist for both impact investors and social enterprises.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Joern Block","Mirko Hirschmann","Christian Fisch"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101813","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-30536ef65bd4007e","title":"Railroads and American Economic Growth: A “Market Access” Approach","abstract":"This article examines the historical impact of railroads on the U.S. economy, with a focus on quantifying the aggregate impact on the agricultural sector in 1890. Expansion of the railroad network may have affected all counties directly or indirectly—an econometric challenge that arises in many empirical settings. However, the total impact on each county is captured by changes in that county’s “market access,” a reduced-form expression derived from general equilibrium trade theory. We measure counties’ market access by constructing a network database of railroads and waterways and calculating lowest-cost county-to-county freight routes. We estimate that county agricultural land values increased substantially with increases in county market access, as the railroad network expanded from 1870 to 1890. Removing all railroads in 1890 is estimated to decrease the total value of U.S. agricultural land by 60%, with limited potential for mitigating these losses through feasible extensions to the canal network or improvements to country roads.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Dave Donaldson","Richard Hornbeck"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw002","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-305a13ee32a59f0c","title":"Pass‐through in a concentrated industry: empirical evidence and regulatory implications","abstract":"We estimate pass‐through with 30 years of data from the portland cement industry. Robust econometric evidence supports that fuel cost changes are more than fully transmitted downstream in the form of price changes. This validates an implicit pass‐through assumption made in recent academic research and regulatory analyses. We combine the econometric results with estimates of competitive conduct obtained from the literature to evaluate the incidence of market‐based CO 2 regulation. Producers bear roughly 11% of the regulatory burden and could be compensated with 16% of the revenues obtained.","wordCount":88,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Nathan Miller","Matthew Osborne","Gloria Sheu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12168","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3064f4df5665ed10","title":"Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach","abstract":"This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical properties. The results point at biased and inefficient budget forecasts, which seem to have been more cautious in French departments than in Portuguese municipalities. Second, we examine the political, institutional and economic determinants of forecast biases. Overall, we find that they are essentially driven by electoral motivations and by institutional differences across the two countries. In particular, opportunistic forecasting is more prevalent where governments enjoy greater margin of maneuver, and there is evidence of conservatism in French departments where fiscal autonomy is greater.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Mamadou Boukari","Francisco José Veiga"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2018.03.002","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-30719dd826dcafbd","title":"Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? Evidence from US States","abstract":"Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimations, we find support for the model's prediction of a positive R&D effect of the technological content of government procurement. Instrumental-variable estimations suggest a causal interpretation of our findings.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Viktor Slavtchev","Simon Wiederhold"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20130069","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3072092a7b1b5389","title":"Environmental policies that shape productivity: Evidence from cattle ranching in the Amazon","abstract":"We examine two potential economic benefits of environmental policy, increased agricultural investment and productivity. This is important because if these benefits are realized, environmental policy could optimize land use for food production while minimizing the negative environmental impacts. We employ multiple empirical techniques to analyze a market-led and a public-led anti-deforestation policy that influence the vast cattle ranching sector in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that both policies increased cattle productivity, while the market-led policy also increased investment. We find no evidence that the two policies were substitutes or complements. Results indicate that the policies were each effective in different market- and land-use-contexts, so that enforcement of both policies increased productivity for a larger set of properties. Our research reveals both indirect and unintended benefits of environmental regulation, which have implications for the design of policies that affect the agricultural sector, a major driver of land-use change.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Fanny Moffette","Marin Skidmore","Holly K. Gibbs"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102490","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-307669cd2aa1f8b9","title":"Equal price for equal place? Demand-driven racial discrimination in the housing market","abstract":"We presented participants to an online study in Luxembourg with fictitious real-estate advertisements, tasking them to appraise the described properties. A random subset was also shown sellers’ surnames, strongly framed to signal their origins. All else equal, sellers with sub-Saharan African surnames were systematically offered lower prices — amounting to an appraisal penalty of EUR 20,000. This figure is highly heterogeneous and can amount up to around EUR 58,000 for older and low-educated participants. We provide evidence that the appraisal bias likely passes through onto final sales prices and that it may be largely due to statistical rather than taste-based discrimination.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Anthony Lepinteur","Giorgia Menta","Sofie R. Waltl"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104089","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3087231d059f4f12","title":"Consequences of parental job loss on the family environment and on human capital formation-Evidence from workplace closures","abstract":"We study the consequences of mothers’ and fathers’ job loss for parents, families, and children. Rich Swedish administrative data allow us to identify workplace closures and account for non-random selection of displaced workers. Our main conclusion is that effects on children are limited, although parents and families are negatively affected in terms of parental health, labour market outcomes and separations. We find no effects of parental job loss on childhood health. While educational and early adult outcomes are unaffected by paternal job loss, we find small negative effects of maternal job loss, which contradicts some of the earlier evidence. Limited effects on family disposable income suggest that welfare institutions successfully insure families, in particular, those with low income, thus protecting the family environment. A dual earner norm and strong incentives for female labour supply may contribute to the absence of positive effects of maternal job loss.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Eva Mörk","Anna Sjögren","Helena Svaleryd"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101911","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-309a5d4bd9868c33","title":"The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?","abstract":"This paper reviews advanced‐economy productivity developments in recent decades. We focus primarily on the facts about, and explanations for, the mid‐2000s labor‐productivity slowdown in large European countries and the United States. Slower total factor productivity (TFP) growth was the proximate cause of the slowdown. This conclusion is robust to measurement challenges including the role of intangible assets, rankings of productivity levels, and data revisions. We contrast two main narratives for the stagnating TFP frontier: The shock of the Global Financial Crisis; and a common slowdown in TFP trends. Distinguishing these two empirically is hard, but the pre‐recession timing of the U.S. slowdown suggests an important role for the common‐trend explanation. We also discuss the unusual pattern of labor productivity growth since the start of the Covid‐19 pandemic. Although it is early, there is little evidence so far that the large pandemic shock has changed the slow pre‐pandemic trajectory of labor‐productivity growth.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["John G. Fernald","Robert Inklaar","Dimitrije Ruzic"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12690","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-309e395f578c9d72","title":"Shedding light on the shadows of informality: A meta-analysis of formalization interventions targeted at informal firms","abstract":"Governments and policymakers promote formalization through various interventions ranging from simplifying registration procedures to increasing law enforcement. Despite these efforts, not much is known about the effects of interventions aiming at formalizing informal firms. This meta-analysis examines the empirical literature on the impact of such formalization interventions. We systematically assessed the literature on the impact of formalization policies resulting in 842 estimates from 27 studies conducted by 49 researchers and published until June 2019. We analysed the meta-impact of (i) cost, (ii) benefit and (iii) enforcement policy interventions and verified whether the resulting outcomes are influenced by the type of data, econometric approach and specification, country characteristics, as well as publication bias. Overall, we find no evidence for increased formalization associated with the so far implemented interventions. There is some indication that policies increasing the benefits after formalization are associated with increased formalization rates but the evidence base is thin suggesting that further piloting and experimenting is needed to achieve large-scale formalization of the informal economy.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Andrea Floridi","Binyam Afewerk Demena","Natascha Wagner"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101925","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-30a26e9bdb4fd41d","title":"The trade reducing effects of restrictions on liner shippingAuthor-Name: Bertho, Fabien","abstract":"The costs of shipping containerized cargo on liner vessels play a pivotal role in determining a country's integration into international trade. We examine how policy governing the liner shipping sector affects maritime transport costs and seaborne trade flows. Using a novel dataset of services trade policy information, we find that restrictions, particularly on foreign investment, significantly increase maritime transport costs. The cost-inflating effect ranges from 26% to 68%, and the resultant reduction in trade flows from 48% to 77%, depending on the level of restrictiveness. We estimate the elasticity of seaborne trade flows with respect to distance to be nearly unity, and are able to disentangle the direct effect of distance from the one that is operating indirectly through higher maritime transport costs. Since the bulk of global merchandise goods trade is seaborne, the magnitude of frictions identified in this paper and their spatial distribution have ramifications for connectivity and growth.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Ingo Borchert","Aaditya Mattoo"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:44:y:2016:i:2:p:231-242","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-30a6deea9cc39ec3","title":"Why does birthplace matter so much?","abstract":"We consider the link between birthplace and wages. Using a unique panel dataset, we estimate a raw elasticity of wages with respect to birthplace size of 4.2%, two thirds of the 6.8% raw elasticity with respect to city size. Part of this effect simply reflects intergenerational transmission and the spatial sorting of parents, part is explained by the role that birthplace size plays in determining current city size. Lifetime immobility explains a lot of the correlation between birthplace and current city size: we show that 43.7% of individuals only ever work while living in the place they were born. Our results highlight the importance of intergenerational and individual sorting in helping explain the persistence of spatial disparities.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Clément Bosquet","Henry G. Overman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.01.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-30a8a5335ba1167d","title":"Structural behavioral models for rights-based fisheries","abstract":"Rights-based management is prevalent in many fisheries, yet conventional spatiotemporal models of fishing behavior do not reflect such institutional settings. We adapt random utility maximization (RUM) models of spatiotemporal fishing behavior to capture the general equilibrium dynamics of catch-share fisheries by incorporating endogenously determined equilibrium quota prices. We demonstrate how a structural estimation strategy is capable of recovering policy-invariant behavioral parameters and predicting out-of-sample counterfactual policies. We illustrate the utility of our structural modeling approach by evaluating the efficacy of “ecosystem-based” policies, such as spatial closures, in a catch-share-managed fishery. Simulation results reveal that such policies have the potential to distort price signals in the quota market and prevent quota prices from coordinating fishing behavior in an efficient manner. Ecosystem-based policies may thus fall short of their intended objectives when introduced into rights-based managed fisheries. Importantly, we demonstrate that such conclusions cannot easily be drawn from behavioral models that omit or approximate the general equilibrium dynamics of rights-based fisheries.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Matthew Reimer","Joshua K. Abbott","Alan C. Haynie"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101294","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-30b74deedae8213c","title":"International migration and illegal costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe smuggling routes","abstract":"The 2011 Arab Spring marked the opening of the Central Mediterranean Route for irregular border crossings between Libya and Italy, which produced heterogeneous reductions of bilateral smuggling distances between country pairs in the Mediterranean region. We exploit this source of spatial and temporal variation in bilateral distance along land and sea routes to estimate the elasticity of irregular migration intentions for African and Near East countries. We estimate an elasticity of migration intentions to smuggling distances exceeding -3, mainly driven by countries with weak rule of law and high internet penetration. Our findings are consistent across irregular migration measures both at the aggregate and individual levels. We show that irregular migration elasticity is higher for youth, relatively skilled individuals and those with an informative advantage (having a social network abroad or a mobile phone).","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Guido Friebel","Miriam Manchin","Mariapia Mendola","Giovanni Prarolo"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103878","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-30c09670aae907b7","title":"The Changing Benefits of Early Work Experience","abstract":"We examine whether the benefits of high school work experience have changed over the last 20 years by comparing effects for the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Our main specifications suggest that the future annual earnings benefits of working 20 h per week in the senior year of high school have fallen from 17.4% for the earlier cohort, measured in 1987–1989, to 12.1% for the later cohort, in 2008–2010. The gains have diminished by similar amounts for men and women but much more substantially for those who do not later attend college than for those who do. We further show that most of the differential between cohorts can be attributed to the way that high school employment is related to subsequent adult work experience and occupational attainment.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Charles L. Baum","Christopher J. Ruhm"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12157","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-30cecaee2d7c201c","title":"R&D and firm resilience during bad times","abstract":"Shows R&D investment enables firms to adapt to drastically changed external environments. Can being innovative help firms to shield themselves from the disruptive effects of a recession? Using data for Spanish manufacturing firms, this paper finds that in industries hit severely by the Great Recession, firms with prior investment in R&D performed relatively better than non-innovative firms during the recession. The resilience of innovative firms is explained by their ability to promptly introduce product innovations. These firms do not seem to engage in process innovation to lower costs or improve production efficiency to adapt to a negative demand shock. Consequently, being innovative matters most for resilience in industries with a high scope for product differentiation. Matching innovative and non-innovative firms within industry groups along several firm characteristics and their pre-recession growth trajectory, and controlling for firm financing constraints, product-market scope, differences in labour adjustment costs or management quality supports the findings. The paper, thus, provides evidence for how investment in R&D today helps firms to cope with a dramatically changed external environment.","wordCount":172,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["A. Gupta"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103246","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-30fc0797a802d34a","title":"The effects of spatial framing and attribute range on the measurement of nonuse values of biodiversity improvements","abstract":"Assessing the value of changes in environmental conditions using stated preference valuation studies requires accurate quantification and communication of outcomes that affect human welfare. Using a stated choice experiment to estimate primarily nonuse value of changes in biodiversity per se, i.e., as an inherent characteristic of an ecosystem, we employ a composite metric known as the Biodiversity Intactness Index to capture and communicate the multifaceted nature of biodiversity. However, using complex ecological indices to value abstract concepts might make respondents more susceptible to effects related to the framing of the choice context, thereby raising concerns about validity. Employing a split sample design, we find that value estimates depend on the spatial context in which biodiversity improvements are presented: the larger the spatial scale, the smaller the value. Varying the range of the biodiversity improvement attribute in additional split samples, we find that in two out of the three tested spatial framings, the results are insensitive to the presented attribute range. Respondents thus appear to react to the absolute, rather than the relative, size of the improvements presented. The results from these two spatial framings also exhibit sensitivity to scope, supported by both internal and external scope tests. These findings might alleviate some of the validity concerns associated with employing abstract ecological indices in stated preference valuation studies.","wordCount":217,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Kennet Christian Uggeldahl","Thomas Lundhede","Jette Bredahl Jacobsen","Søren Bøye Olsen"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101539","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3105e46331d8e25e","title":"Smallholders’ land access in Sub-Saharan Africa: A new landscape?","abstract":"While scholars long recognized the importance of land markets as a key driver of rural non-farm development and transformation in rural areas, evidence on the extent of their operation and the nature of participants remains limited. We use household data from 6 countries to show that there is great potential for such markets to increase productivity and equalize factor ratios. While rental markets transfer land to land-poor and labor-rich producers, their operation and thus impact may be constrained by policy restrictions. Their functioning may also be constrained by ill-defined or insecure rights that may arise from failure to fully compensate existing rights in cases of expropriation, a failure to implement more broadly land policies or to do so in a gender sensitive manner. Methodological and substantive conclusions are derived.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Klaus Deininger","Sara Savastano","Fang Xia"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-31191ddfa84bce1c","title":"Drawing up the bill: Are ESG ratings related to stock returns around the world?","abstract":"We provide the most comprehensive analysis to date of the relation between ESG ratings and stock returns, using 16,000+ stocks in 48 countries and seven different ESG rating providers. We find very little evidence that ESG ratings are related to global stock returns between 2001 and 2020. This finding obtains across different regions, time periods, ESG (sub)ratings, ESG momentum, ESG downgrades and upgrades, and best-in-class strategies. We further find little empirical support for prominent hypotheses from the literature on the role of ESG uncertainty and of country-level ESG social norms, ESG disclosure standards, and ESG regulations in shaping the relation between ESG and global stock returns. Overall, our results suggest that ESG investing did not systematically affect investment performance during the past two decades.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Rómulo Alves","Philipp Krueger","Mathijs A. van Dijk"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102768","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-312737886801c300","title":"Strength of preference and decisions under risk","abstract":"Influential economic approaches as random utility models assume a monotonic relation between choice frequencies and “strength of preference,” in line with widespread evidence from the cognitive sciences, which also document an inverse relation to response times. However, for economic decisions under risk, these effects are largely untested, because models used to fit data assume them. Further, the dimension underlying strength of preference remains unclear in economics, with candidates including payoff-irrelevant numerical magnitudes. We provide a systematic, out-of-sample empirical validation of these relations (both for choices and response times) relying on both a new experimental design and simulations.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Carlos Alós‐Ferrer","Michele Garagnani"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09381-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3129e86b6b747800","title":"Four Levers of Redistribution: The Impact of Tax and Transfer Systems on Inequality Reduction","abstract":"We use harmonized survey data from the Luxembourg Income Study to assess the redistributive impact of taxes and transfers across 22 OECD countries over the 1999–2016 period. After imputing missing tax data (employer social‐security contributions), we measure the reduction in income inequality from four key levers of tax and transfer systems: the average tax rate, tax progressivity, the average transfer rate, and transfer targeting. Our methodological improvements produce the following results. First, tax redistribution dominates transfer redistribution (excluding pensions) in most countries. Second, targeting explains very little of the cross‐country variation in inequality reduction. In contrast, both tax progressivity and the average tax rate have large impacts on redistribution. Last, there seem to be political tradeoffs: high average tax rates are not found together with highly progressive tax systems.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Elvire Guillaud","Matthew Olckers","Michaël Zemmour"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12408","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-312b19d4cb5ac050","title":"Voting to Tell Others","abstract":"Why do people vote? We design a field experiment to estimate a model of voting “because others will ask”. The expectation of being asked motivates turnout if individuals derive pride from telling others that they voted, or feel shame from admitting that they did not vote, provided that lying is costly. In a door-to-door survey about election turnout, we experimentally vary (1) the informational content and use of a flyer pre-announcing the survey, (2) the duration and payment for the survey, and (3) the incentives to lie about past voting. The experimental results indicate significant social image concerns. For the 2010 Congressional election, we estimate a value of voting “to tell others” of about $\\\\$$15, contributing 2 percentage points to turnout. Finally, we evaluate a get-out-the-vote intervention in which we tell potential voters that we will ask if they voted.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Stefano DellaVigna","John A. List","Ulrike Malmendier","Gautam Rao"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw056","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-312b438f6a482264","title":"Partisanship in loan pricing","abstract":"Does partisanship influence the way investors price financial assets? Using voter registration data of bankers originating large corporate loans, we show that bankers whose party differs from that of the U.S. President charge 7% higher loan spreads than other bankers. This effect holds regardless of borrowers’ partisanship, and becomes stronger for politically active bankers and when partisan media exhibit greater disagreement. Bankers do not match disproportionately with co-partisan borrowers but they lead syndicates more frequently with co-partisan bankers. Our results are not driven by bank or borrower fundamentals, but suggest that investor optimism, driven by political alignment, shapes asset prices.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Ramona Dagostino","Janet Gao","Pengfei Ma"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103717","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-312f814f8acb2ee4","title":"Higher-order risk preferences in social settings","abstract":"We study prudence and temperance (next to risk aversion) in social settings. Previous experimental studies have shown that these higher-order risk preferences affect the choices of individuals deciding privately on lotteries that only affect their own payoff. Yet, many risky and financially relevant decisions are made in the social settings of households or organizations. We elicit higher-order risk preferences of individuals and systematically vary how an individual's decision is made (alone or while communicating with a partner) and who is affected by the decision (only the individual or the partner as well). In doing so, we can isolate the effects of other-regarding concerns and communication on choices. Our results reveal that the majority of choices are risk averse, prudent, and temperate across social settings. We also observe that individuals are influenced significantly by the preferences of a partner when they are able to communicate and choices are payoff-relevant for both of them.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Timo Heinrich","Thomas Mayrhofer"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9541-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3147b0509523d762","title":"Fiscal policy volatility and capital misallocation: Evidence from China","abstract":"This paper investigates how domestic policy uncertainty stemming from discretionary fiscal policy disrupts efficient capital allocation across firms. While fiscal policy represents the government’s reaction to economic conditions, its volatility presents firms with considerable uncertainty about conditions affecting their future profitability and consequently disrupts decisions about investment in the presence of capital adjustment costs. Using firm-level data from Chinese manufacturing industries spanning from 1998 to 2007, we find that reducing fiscal policy volatility leads to a decrease in the dispersion of the marginal revenue product of capital, accounting for 8.3 percent of the observed improvement in capital allocation during the sample period. In addition to various fiscal reforms to curb fiscal policy volatility directly, policies contributing to lower capital adjustment costs and lower reliance of firms on government expenditure can alleviate the adverse effects of fiscal policy volatility.","wordCount":138,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Sai Ding","Wei Jiang","Shengyu Li","Shang‐Jin Wei"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104797","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-314ace65a9a1d9b8","title":"Is food labelling effective in reducing climate impact by encouraging the substitution of protein sources?","abstract":"This study investigates consumer willingness to substitute high-emissions meat products with lower-emissions protein products, including blends of meat and vegetables. Survey data, including a choice experiment, are combined with data on the respondents’ actual purchase behaviour. The traffic light carbon label has an effect on choice behaviour, as it increases the willingness to purchase lower-emissions protein products such as chicken and meat substitutes. We further find that the willingness to purchase these lower-emissions products is largest among individuals who are already purchasing most sustainably. We discuss policy implications from the expected impacts of carbon labels, and how such labels affect different types of consumers.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Anna Kristina Edenbrandt","Carl Johan Lagerkvist"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102097","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-314ce1cbae9cfe33","title":"Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Intervention","abstract":"I consider a small open economy model where international financial markets are imperfect and the exchange rate is determined by capital flows. I use this framework to study the effects of portfolio flow shocks, derive the optimal foreign exchange intervention policy, and characterize its interaction with monetary policy. I derive the optimal intervention rule in closed form as a function of three implicit targets. Finally, using Swiss data, I estimate the model to quantify the inefficiencies generated by capital flow shocks and the optimal size of the intervention.","wordCount":88,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Paolo Cavallino"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160065","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-31502812d99bbbec","title":"Macroeconomic shocks and racial labor market differences","abstract":"We investigate the effects of three structural macroeconomic shocks (monetary, demand, and supply) on the labor market outcomes of black and white Americans using a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework with 136 U.S. macroeconomic indicators from 1973 to 2017. Our results indicate that adverse macroeconomic shocks have differential effects on labor market outcomes for blacks and whites, hurting blacks disproportionately more than whites. Black Americans' labor market outcomes appear to be significantly more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks than are the outcomes for white Americans. Our findings indicate that business‐cycle costs are disproportionately borne by black Americans and that racial inequality in the labor market rises in recessions. The strongest effects occur in recessions caused by supply side disturbances. Our results suggest policymakers should take these heterogeneous effects into account when designing policy.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Kuhelika De","Ryan A. Compton","Daniel C. Giedeman","Gary A. Hoover"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12534","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-315d673ff6a61870","title":"The Impacts of the U.S. Trade War on Chinese Exporters","abstract":"This paper studies the impacts of the 2018 U.S. tariff surges on export prices and adjustments of sales across different markets of Chinese exporters. The finding that U.S. tariffs did not affect the free-on-board price of Chinese exports is robust to controlling for firm-related fixed effects. While firms’ exports to the United States dropped significantly, exports to the EU increased moderately and domestic sales or exports to other foreign markets were barely affected. Finally, by surveying managers of exporting firms, we shed light on potential impediments to firms’ adjustments of export prices and sales.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Yang Jiao","Zhikuo Liu","Zhiwei Tian","Xiaxin Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01229","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-31820041b68ae9ff","title":"Paid Parental Leave and Children's Schooling Outcomes","abstract":"This article investigates whether schooling outcomes at age 15 are affected by the duration of maternity leave, i.e. the time mothers spend at home with their new‐born before returning to work. We exploit an unanticipated reform in Austria which extended the maximum duration of paid and job protected parental leave from 12 to 24 months for births as of 1 July, 1990. Using PISA data from the cohorts 1990 and 1987, we find no significant overall impact of the parental leave extension on standardised test scores. However, subgroup analyses reveal strong heterogeneity by maternal education and child gender.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Natalia Danzer","Victor Lavy"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12493","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-319ba8da3db7328f","title":"Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?","abstract":"The political risk premium is positively associated with monetary policy shocks We investigate whether political risk is priced in the cross-section of corporate bond returns by using a text-based measure of firm-level political risk. We document a positive and significant political risk premium after controlling for bond and firm characteristics, conventional risk factors, and exposure to aggregate economic policy uncertainty. Bonds with higher political and credit risk, as well as smaller, more illiquid, and longer maturity corporate bonds exhibit a larger political risk premium. Time-series analysis indicates that monetary policy shocks and common shocks in the equity and bond market exhibit a statistically significant and positive association with the political risk premium. Our findings reveal the importance of idiosyncratic political risk beyond common risk factors and aggregate economic policy uncertainty.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Luis Ceballos","Vanja Piljak","Laurens Swinkels"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101562","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-31a1a813c65a71a8","title":"The effects of climate risks on economic activity in a panel of US states: The role of uncertainty","abstract":"We analyse the impact of climate risks (temperature growth and its volatility) on the coincident indicator of the 50 US states in a panel data set-up, over the monthly period of March, 1984 to December, 2019. Using impulse response functions (IRFs) from a linear local projections (LPs) model, we show that climate risks negatively impact economic activity to a similar degree, irrespective of whether such risks are due to changes in temperature growth or its volatility. More importantly, using a nonlinear LPs model, the IRFs reveal that the adverse effect of climate risks is contingent on the regimes of economic and policy-related uncertainty of the states, with the impact being significantly much stronger under relatively higher values of uncertainty, rather than lower values of the same. In addition to this, temperature growth volatility is found to contract economic activity nearly five times more compared to when temperature growth increases by a similar magnitude in the higher uncertainty-based regime of the nonlinear model. Understandably, our results have important policy implications.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Xin Sheng","Rangan Gupta","Oğuzhan Çepni"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110374","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-31a61c25948dc3f9","title":"Global Evidence on Economic Preferences","abstract":"This article studies the global variation in economic preferences. For this purpose, we present the Global Preference Survey (GPS), an experimentally validated survey data set of time preference, risk preference, positive and negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust from 80,000 people in 76 countries. The data reveal substantial heterogeneity in preferences across countries, but even larger within-country heterogeneity. Across individuals, preferences vary with age, gender, and cognitive ability, yet these relationships appear partly country specific. At the country level, the data reveal correlations between preferences and biogeo-graphic and cultural variables, such as agricultural suitability, language structure, and religion. Variation in preferences is also correlated with economic outcomes and behaviors. Within countries and subnational regions, preferences are linked to individual savings decisions, labormarket choices, and prosocial behaviors. Across countries, preferences vary with aggregate outcomes ranging from per capita income, to entrepreneurial activities, to the frequency of armed conflicts.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Armin Falk","Anke Becker","Thomas Dohmen","Benjamin Enke","David Huffman","Uwe Sunde"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-31aea58684abd4a9","title":"Competition and Pass-Through: Evidence from Isolated Markets","abstract":"We measure how pass-through varies with competition in isolated oligopolistic markets with captive consumers. Using daily pricing data from gas stations on small Greek islands, we study how unanticipated and exogenous changes in excise duties are passed through to consumers in markets with different numbers of retailers. We find that pass-through increases from 0.4 in monopoly markets to 1 in markets with four or more competitors and remains constant thereafter. The speed of price adjustment is about 60 percent higher in more competitive markets. Finally, we show that geographic market definitions based on measures of distance across sellers often result in signifi-cant overestimation of the pass-through.","wordCount":106,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Christos Genakos","Mario Pagliero"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20200863","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-31b3206cfff135fe","title":"Competing for love: Applying sexual economics theory to mating contests","abstract":"Because men can compete as groups, male competition is less zero sum than women’s. Sexual economics theory analyzes the onset of heterosexual sex as a marketplace deal in which the woman is the seller and the man is the buyer, with the price paid in nonsexual resources. We extend that theory to analyze same-gender contests in that marketplace, and to elaborate the idea that what the woman sells is not just sex but exclusive access to her sexual charms. Women compete on sex appeal and on the promise of exclusiveness (faithfulness), with the goal of getting a man who will provide material resources. Men compete to amass material resources, with the goal of getting a good sex partner. Female competition includes showing off her sexual charms, offering sex at a lower price than rivals, seeking to improve her physical assets (e.g., by dieting), and use of informational warfare to sully rivals’ reputations while defending her own reputation against malicious gossip. We review evidence of these patterns, including evidence that female body dissatisfaction and pathological eating patterns increase when women perceive an unfavorable sex ratio (i.e., shortage of eligible men). Men compete in groups to amass resources, so men see other men not just as sexual rivals but also as coalition partners. Male homophobia is often not about sex but rather invokes the stereotype that a homosexual man will not be an effective coalition partner. Misunderstandings about whether sex or exclusivity is the central commitment can complicate marital adjustment for couples.","wordCount":250,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Roy F. Baumeister","Tania Reynolds","Bo Winegard","Kathleen D. Vohs"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2017.07.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-31bf93d269f9b889","title":"The cost of segregation in (social) networks","abstract":"This paper investigates the welfare effect of income redistribution in the private provision of public goods on networks. We first show that the welfare effect of income redistribution is determined by Bonacich centrality. Then we develop an index based on the network structure of interactions, which, roughly speaking, measures the welfare effect of income redistribution confined to a component of contributors. The proposed index vanishes when applied to large components of contributors that display special segregated interactions, which suggests an “asymptotic neutrality” of redistributive policies.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Nizar Allouch"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Z","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2017.08.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-31c4b0812668e181","title":"Competition in costly talk","abstract":"This paper studies a communication game between an uninformed decision maker and two perfectly informed senders with conflicting interests. Senders can misreport information at a cost that increases with the size of the misrepresentation. The main result concerns the characterization of equilibria with desirable properties: they always exist, are essentially unique, and are robust. Information transmission is partial in these equilibria, and persuasion occurs on the equilibrium path. By contrast, equilibria where the decision maker obtains her complete-information payoff are not robust, and hinge on beliefs with potentially undesirable properties.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Federico Vaccari"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105740","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-31c7e9780291dba5","title":"The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change","abstract":"Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world. A few countries, mostly in high latitudes, may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims to quantify the role of market-mediated adjustments in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages within and between countries. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of land use choice is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models. We use spatially explicit information from the agronomic literature about potential yields before and after climate change for calibration and counterfactual simulations. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in production and trade. Both production and trade adjustments contribute to reducing welfare losses globally, with production adjustments making the larger contribution.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Christophe Gouel","David Laborde"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102408","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-31c880a4957c4d67","title":"The Ecological Impact of Transportation Infrastructure","abstract":"There is a long-standing debate over whether new roads unavoidably lead to environmental damage, especially forest loss, but causal identification has been elusive. Using multiple causal identification strategies, we study the construction of new rural roads to over 100,000 villages and the upgrading of 10,000 kilometers of national highways in India. The new rural roads had precisely zero effect on local deforestation. In contrast, the highway upgrades caused substantial forest loss, which appears to be driven by increased timber demand along the transportation corridors. In terms of forests, last mile connectivity had a negligible environmental cost, while expansion of major corridors had important environmental impacts.","wordCount":105,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Sam Asher","Teevrat Garg","Paul Novosad"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-31cfdd2c2f0fce85","title":"Optimal dynamic contracts with moral hazard and costly monitoring","abstract":"We introduce a tractable dynamic monitoring technology into a continuous-time moral-hazard problem and study the optimal long-term contract between principal and agent. Monitoring adds value by allowing the principal to reduce the intensity of performance-based incentives, reducing the likelihood of costly termination. We present a novel characterization of optimal dynamic incentive provision when performance-based incentives may decline continuously to zero. Termination happens in equilibrium only if its costs are relatively low. In general, the intensity of both monitoring and performance-based compensation can be non-monotonic functions of the quality of past performance. Our results can also help explain puzzling empirical findings on the relationship between performance history and future pay-performance sensitivity and on the linkage between termination, performance, and monitoring. We also discuss implications of our model for optimal security design and endogenous financing constraints.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Tomasz Piskorski","Mark M. Westerfield"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2016.08.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-322760ecb52e90d8","title":"Contagion and loss redistribution in crypto asset markets","abstract":"This paper addresses the growing concern of shock propagation in crypto asset markets. The integration of conventional financial institutions (CeFi) and decentralized financial protocols (DeFi) has introduced a set of complexities that are not adequately accounted for in current models. We build on the well-established framework by Eisenberg and Noe (2001) and propose a generalized extension that can be applied to mixed DeFi/CeFi networks. Our model serves as a tool for comprehending potential contagion channels and loss redistribution resulting from the non-recourse nature of DeFi loans.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Katrin Schuler","Matthias Nadler","Fabian Schär"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111310","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-323be45679afe0e4","title":"Artificial intelligence and firm-level productivity","abstract":"Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often regarded as the next general-purpose technology with a rapid, penetrating, and far-reaching use over a broad number of industrial sectors. The main feature of new general-purpose technology is to enable new ways of production that may increase productivity. However, to date, only a few studies have investigated the likely productivity effects of AI at the firm-level, presumably due to limited data availability. We exploit unique survey data on firms’ adoption of AI technology and estimate its productivity effects with a sample of German firms. We employ both a cross-sectional dataset and a panel database. To address the potential endogeneity of AI adoption, we also implement IV estimators. We find positive and significant associations between the use of AI and firm productivity. This finding holds for different measures of AI usage, i.e., an indicator variable of AI adoption, and the intensity with which firms use AI methods in their business processes.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Dirk Czarnitzki","Gastón P. Fernández","Christian Rammer"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-32464eafa139deb9","title":"Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany","abstract":"We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Burkhard Heer","Mark Trede"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103488","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-324ab79195ca084d","title":"Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?","abstract":"This paper investigates whether Tether, a digital currency pegged to the U.S. dollar, influenced Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices during the 2017 boom. Using algorithms to analyze blockchain data, we find that purchases with Tether are timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. The flow is attributable to one entity, clusters below round prices, induces asymmetric autocorrelations in Bitcoin, and suggests insufficient Tether reserves before month‐ends. Rather than demand from cash investors, these patterns are most consistent with the supply‐based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["John M. Griffin","Amin Shams"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12903","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-324ce0b9eaf3abdc","title":"On monotone pure-strategy Bayesian-Nash equilibria of a generalized contest","abstract":"We introduce a new approach to studying the existence of a monotone pure-strategy Bayesian-Nash equilibrium in an n-player single-prize contest model that covers both perfectly and imperfectly discriminating contests. The contestants have continua of possible types and bids, atomless type distributions, and their valuations and costs might depend not only on their own bids and types but also on other bidders' bids and types. Many, quite different contests are covered by our generalized contest model and equilibrium existence in monotone pure strategies in them follows from this paper's results.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Pavlo Prokopovych","Nicholas C. Yannelis"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.04.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-324f557a6fcd3755","title":"Publishing While Female: are Women Held to Higher Standards? Evidence from Peer Review","abstract":"Female authors are under-represented in top economics journals. In this paper, I investigate whether higher writing standards contribute to the problem. I find that (i) female-authored papers are 1%–6% better written than equivalent papers by men; (ii) the gap widens during peer review; (iii) women improve their writing as they publish more papers (but men do not); (iv) female-authored papers take longer under review. Using a subjective expected utility framework, I argue that higher writing standards for women are consistent with these stylised facts. A counterfactual analysis suggests that senior female economists may, as a result, write at least 5% more clearly than they otherwise would. As a final exercise, I show tentative evidence that women adapt to biased treatment in ways that may disguise it as voluntary choice.","wordCount":129,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Erin Hengel"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-325446b962c67235","title":"Discounting and extraction behavior in continuous time resource experiments","abstract":"Experimenting with dynamic games raises issues about implementing discounting in experiments. Theoretical rational decision-makers evaluate payoff streams by converting them to a reference period, often “time zero.” In experiments, subjects can adapt their strategy continuously. We explore individual behavior in a dynamic resource extraction experiment with two treatments: “z-discounting” (evaluating gains at time zero) and “p-discounting” (evaluating gains in present-time equivalents). Contrary to theoretical predictions, our data shows a significant positive treatment effect, indicating more substantial extraction under p-discounting. This challenges the theoretical model and prompts discussion on methodological considerations for discounting in laboratory settings.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Marion Davin","Dimitri Dubois","Katrin Erdlenbruch","Marc Willinger"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101531","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-325915799e5de400","title":"Trust as a decision under ambiguity","abstract":"Decisions to trust in strategic situations involve ambiguity (unknown probabilities). Despite many theoretical studies on ambiguity in game theory, empirical studies have lagged behind due to a lack of measurement methods, where separating ambiguity attitudes from beliefs is crucial. Baillon et al. (Econometrica, 2018b) introduced a method that allows for such a separation for individual choice. We extend this method to strategic situations and apply it to the trust game, providing new insights. People’s ambiguity attitudes and beliefs both matter for their trust decisions. People who are more ambiguity averse decide to trust less, and people with more optimistic beliefs about others’ trustworthiness decide to trust more. However, people who are more a-insensitive (insufficient discrimination between different likelihood levels) are less likely to act upon their beliefs. Our measurement of beliefs, free from contamination by ambiguity attitudes, shows that traditional introspective trust survey measures capture trust in the commonly accepted sense of belief in trustworthiness of others. Further, trustworthy people also decide to trust more due to their beliefs that others are similar to themselves. This paper shows that applications of ambiguity theories to game theory can bring useful new empirical insights.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Chen Li","Uyanga Turmunkh","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9582-3","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-326cd377f42eb331","title":"Twitter and citations","abstract":"Social media, especially Twitter, plays an increasingly important role among researchers in showcasing and promoting their research. Does Twitter affect academic citations? Making use of Twitter activity about columns published on VoxEU, a renowned online platform for economists, we develop an instrumental variable strategy to show that Twitter activity about a research paper has a causal effect on the number of citations that this paper will receive. We find that the existence of at least one tweet, as opposed to none, increases citations by 16–25%. Doubling overall Twitter engagement boosts citations by up to 16%.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Ho Fai Chan","Ali Sina Önder","Sascha Schweitzer","Benno Torgler"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"A","allJels":["A"],"subfieldLabel":"General Economics / A","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111270","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-326f0ab57f7bafd1","title":"Britain as a debtor: Indian sterling balances, 1940–53","abstract":"The British war effort in the Second World War depended on US Lend‐Lease and the accumulation of sterling balances by other countries, including the Empire. By the end of the war outstanding balances were equivalent to 60 per cent of British net receipts under Lend‐Lease. Of the total sterling balances, about a third was accumulated by India. This article seeks to evaluate the costs incurred by India in the reduction of balances after the war. The accumulation of balances and their use to repatriate India's sterling debt is described. British efforts to convince India to accept a partial cancellation of the balances are analysed, singling out the crucial role of Keynes. The negotiations after independence are detailed, including releases, transfers to Pakistan, settlement of pensions, purchase of military stores, and gold sales. The possible contribution of British divestment to reduce outstanding balances is assessed. The Indian case is compared with those of other holders, such as Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, and Egypt. The links between the accumulation of sterling balances and inflation are considered. In the end there was a significant reduction in the purchasing power of sterling balances, but not for the reasons anticipated by London.","wordCount":196,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Marcelo de Paiva Abreu"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12372","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-32778d55a3651ad4","title":"Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change","abstract":"A large discrepancy exists between the dire impacts that most natural scientists project we could face from climate change and the modest estimates of damages calculated by mainstream economists. Economic assessments of climate change risks are intended to be comprehensive, covering the full range of physical impacts and their associated market and non-market costs, considering the greater vulnerability of poor people and the challenges of adaptation. Available estimates still fall significantly short of this goal, but alternative approaches that have been proposed attempt to address these gaps. This review seeks to provide a common basis for natural scientists, social scientists, and modellers to understand the research challenges involved in evaluating the economic risks of climate change. Focusing on the estimation processes embedded in economic integrated assessment models and the concerns raised in the literature, we summarise the frontiers of research relevant to improving quantitative damage estimates, representing the full complexity of the associated systems, and evaluating the impact of the various economic assumptions used to manage this complexity.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["James Rising","Charlotte Taylor","Matthew C. Ives","Robert E. Ward"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107437","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-328021955be7a60b","title":"Stock market responses to monetary policy shocks: Firm-level evidence","abstract":"Using a firm-level data set for the U.S., we investigate the stock price responses to unanticipated and unconventional monetary policy shocks. Our results show that indebtedness/leverage is more important than size or age in explaining the cross-firm variation in responses to monetary policy. We also show that the magnitude of the indebtedness is important while the debt structure is not, and the third quartile of firms drives our results. We assess the robustness of our empirical findings across several dimensions.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["K. Peren Arın","Samuel Kaplan","Efstathios Polyzos","Nicola Spagnolo"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103646","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-328351252e326aa1","title":"Corruption and insider trading","abstract":"We investigate firm corruption in China by extracting a measure of corruption from published financial statements and use this to demonstrate that corruption impacts the trading decisions of insiders. Specifically, we show that insiders in firms that are more corrupt trade more aggressively, and they are more willing to trade on their private information as evidenced by the increased informativeness of their trades, in respect of both purchases and sales. This link between firm corruption and trade informativeness is robust to the inclusion of a number of factors that are known to influence the informativeness of such trades, including trade characteristics, insider characteristics and the firm's information environment. We also consider the effect of the appointment of a new CEO or Chair. Overall, corruption related trade informativeness holds consistently for both purchases and sales. Finally, we show that this measure of corruption is robust to the inclusion of several alternative indicators of corporate misconduct.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Kyriacos Kyriacou","Siming Liu","Bryan Mase"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102654","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-329067d9de47f070","title":"The multigenerational impacts of educational expansion: Evidence from Vietnam","abstract":"We investigate the multigenerational effects of a primary school expansion program in Vietnam. In the directly affected generation, the expansion increases educational attainment, literacy, non-agricultural economic activity, earnings and the intergenerational educational mobility. It increases human capital investments in the children of the directly affected generation, with increased educational expenditures, school enrollment, and health investments, and a reduction in child labor. Moreover, the expansion improves health in old age of the parents of the directly affected generation, an effect that seems to operate through increased financial resources, access to private health insurance and reduced alcohol consumption.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Thomas Cornelißen","Thang Dang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102243","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-329ddc28bed80142","title":"The Elusive Pro-Competitive Effects of Trade","abstract":"We study the gains from trade liberalization in models with monopolistic competition, firm-level heterogeneity, and variable markups. For a large class of demand functions used in the international macro and trade literature, we derive a parsimonious generalization of the welfare formula in Arkolakis et al. (2012). We then use both estimates from micro-level trade data and evidence regarding firm-level pass through to quantify the implications of this new formula.Within the class of models that we consider, our main finding is that gains from trade liberalization predicted by models with variable markups are equal to, at best, and slightly lower than, at worst, those predicted by models with constant markups. In this sense, pro-competitive effects of trade are elusive.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Costas Arkolakis","Arnaud Costinot","Dave Donaldson","Andrés Rodrı́guez-Clare"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/2954216","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-32b82a75cc0816d9","title":"Health Care Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare","abstract":"We compare health care spending in public and private Medicare using newly available claims data from Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers. MA insurer revenues are 30 percent higher than their health care spending. Adjusting for enrollee mix, health care spending per enrollee in MA is 9 to 30 percent lower than in Traditional Medicare (TM), depending on the way we define “comparable” enrollees. Spending differences primarily reflect differences in health care utilization, with similar reductions for “high-value” and “low-value” care, rather than health care prices. We present evidence consistent with MA plans encouraging substitution to less expensive care and engaging in utilization management.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Vilsa Curto","Liran Einav","Amy Finkelstein","Jonathan Levin","Jay Bhattacharya"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170295","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-32bce0d5b250d9f3","title":"Information frictions and access to the Paycheck Protection Program","abstract":"The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to support small businesses affected by the COVID-19 crisis. This paper provides evidence that information frictions and the \"first-come, first-served\" design of the PPP program skewed its resources towards larger firms and may have permanently reduced its effectiveness. Using new daily survey data on small businesses in the U.S., we show that the smallest businesses were less aware of the PPP and less likely to apply. If they did apply, the smallest businesses applied later, faced longer processing times, and were less likely to have their application approved. These frictions may have mattered, as businesses that received aid report fewer layoffs, higher employment, and improved expectations about the future.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["John Eric Humphries","Christopher Neilson","Gabriel Ulyssea"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104244","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-32cb7c260aab96dc","title":"Revisiting the commodity curse: A financial perspective","abstract":"We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates demand and has long-run implications on the sectoral allocation of labor. If dynamic productivity gains are concentrated in the traded good sector, the commodity boom crowds out the traded sector and delays convergence to the world technology frontier. Financial openness by stimulating current demand, amplifies the crowding out effect and may even lead to a growth trap, in which no resources are allocated to the traded sector. From a normative point of view, our analysis suggests that capital account management policies could be welfare improving in those circumstances.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Enrique Alberola","Gianluca Benigno"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.02.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-32e0912e6ebce8e0","title":"Cognitive bubbles","abstract":"Smith et al. (Econometrica 56(5):1119, 1988) reported large bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets, a result that has been replicated many times. Here we test whether the occurrence of bubbles depends on the experimental subjects’ cognitive sophistication. In a two-part experiment, we first run a battery of tests to assess the subjects’ cognitive sophistication and classify them into low or high levels. We then invite them separately to two asset market experiments populated only by subjects with either low or high cognitive sophistication. We observe classic bubble and crash patterns in markets populated by subjects with low levels of cognitive sophistication. Yet, no bubbles or crashes are observed with our sophisticated subjects, indicating that cognitive sophistication of the experimental market participants has a strong impact on price efficiency.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Ciril Bosch-Rosa","Thomas Meißner","Antoni Bosch‐Domènech"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9529-0","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-32e2cd2869ba7a0f","title":"Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending","abstract":"We study the response of daily household spending to the surprise number of fatalities of the COVID‐19 pandemic, which we label as a pandemic shock. Based on daily forecasts of the number of fatalities, we construct the surprise component as the difference between the actual and the expected number of deaths. We allow for state‐dependent effects of the shock depending on the position on the curve of infections. Spending falls after the shock and is particularly sensitive to the shock when the number of new infections is strongly increasing. If the number of infections grows moderately, the drop in spending is smaller. We also estimate the effect of the shock across income quartiles. In each state, low‐income households exhibit a significantly larger drop in consumption than high‐income households. Thus, consumption inequality increases after a pandemic shock. Our results hold for the US economy and the key US states. The findings remain unchanged if we choose alternative state‐variables to separate regimes.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["David Finck","Peter Tillmann"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12471","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-32e5d07a76134bf6","title":"Antibacterial resistance and the cost of affecting demand: The case of UK antibiotics","abstract":"Consumption of broad-spectrum antibiotics is associated with rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) levels. The use of broad-spectrum drugs, particularly of cephalosporins, quinolones, and co-amoxiclav contributes the most to the rise in AMR. We use aggregate sales data on antibiotics from the UK to estimate structural demand models and reveal drug substitution patterns. We then simulate alternative tax schemes to evaluate the effectiveness of shifting demand from broad- to narrow-spectrum drugs. Our estimates suggest that these policies can be highly effective in demand management and come at a relatively low cost regarding changes in consumer and producer surplus.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Farasat A. S. Bokhari","Franco Mariuzzo","Weijie Yan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103082","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-32e65af8ea36e67d","title":"Why the Great Food Transformation may not happen – A deep-dive into our food systems’ political economy, controversies and politics of evidence","abstract":"This paper explores the conditions under which the changes leading to the Great Transformation of food systems called upon by a growing number of international experts and development agencies, will (or not) happen. After discussing the meanings of ‘transformation’ in the specific context of food systems, we draw on different elements of political economy to show how various self-reinforcing dynamics are contributing to lock food systems in their current unsustainable trajectories. Those include the concentration of economic and market power in the hands of the Big Food transnational corporations but also other actors’ ideology, policy incoherence, national interests or culturally-embedded aspirations, which together create irreconcilable trade-offs and tensions between divergent individual and societal objectives and prevent the system from aligning toward a more sustainable trajectory. In this context, while innovation is often presented as a ‘game-changer’, we show how the current profit-driven nature of its evolutionary selection creates a random, adirectional, process incapable of steering food systems towards sustainability. We argue that unless those different issues are tackled all together in a resolutely normative, global, and prescriptive manner in which science would have a new role to play, there are serious risks that the Great Transformation will not happen. Based on these analyses, we identify pathways to move the systems past its current locks-in and steer it toward its long-awaited sustainable transformation. In doing so we demonstrate that what is needed is not just a transformation of the food systems themselves, but a transformation of the governance of those food systems as well.","wordCount":253,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Christophe Béné"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://hdl.handle.net/10568/118442","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-32f59a2cf441f387","title":"Worker wellbeing and productivity in advanced economies: Re-examining the link","abstract":"Labour productivity is a key concept for understanding the way modern economies use resources and features prominently in ecological economics. Ecological economists have questioned the desirability of labour productivity growth on both environmental and social grounds. In this paper we aim to contribute to ongoing debates by focusing on the link between labour productivity and worker wellbeing. First, we review the evidence for the happy-productive worker thesis, which suggests labour productivity could be improved by increasing worker wellbeing. Second, we review the evidence on ways that productivity growth may undermine worker wellbeing. We find there is experimental evidence demonstrating a causal effect of worker wellbeing on productivity, but that the relationship can also sometimes involve resource-intensive mediators. Taken together with the evidence of a negative impact on worker wellbeing from productivity growth, we conclude that a relentless pursuit of productivity growth is potentially counterproductive, not only in terms of worker wellbeing, but even in terms of long-term productivity.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Amy Isham","Simon Mair","Tim Jackson"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106989","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-32f97859dc1464a4","title":"Optimal Law Enforcement with Ordered Leniency","abstract":"This paper studies the design of optimal enforcement policies with ordered leniency to detect and deter harmful short-term activities committed by groups of injurers. With ordered leniency, the degree of leniency granted to an injurer who self-reports depends on his or her position in the self-reporting queue. We show that the ordered-leniency policy that induces maximal deterrence gives successively larger discounts to injurers who secure higher positions in the reporting queue. This creates a so-called race to the courthouse in which all injurers self-report promptly and, as a result, social harm is reduced. We show that the expected fine increases with the size of the group, which thus discourages the formation of large illegal enterprises. The first-best outcome is obtained with ordered leniency when the externalities associated with the harmful activities are not too great. Our findings complement Kaplow and Shavell’s results for single-injurer environments.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Claudia M. Landeo","Kathryn E. Spier"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705829","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3304488cc87157c7","title":"Social distance and network structures","abstract":"This paper proposes a tractable model that allows us to analyze how agents' perception of relationships with others determines the structures of networks. In our model, agents are endowed with their own multidimensional characteristics and their payoffs depend on the social distance between them. We characterize the clustering coefficient and average path length in stable networks, and analyze how they are related to the way agents measure social distances. The model predicts the small-world properties under a class of social distance that violates the triangle inequality. Allowing for heterogeneity in link-formation costs, the model also accommodates other well documented empirical patterns of social networks such as skewed degree distributions, positive assortativity of degrees, and clustering-degree correlation.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Ryota Iijima","Yuichiro Kamada"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1873","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-330bfb7266e9e62b","title":"Upcoding: Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment","abstract":"In most US health insurance markets, plans face strong incentives to \"upcode\" the patient diagnoses they report to the regulator, as these affect the risk-adjusted payments plans receive. We show that enrollees in private Medicare plans generate 6% to 16% higher diagnosis-based risk scores than they would under fee-for-service Medicare, where diagnoses do not affect most provider payments. Our estimates imply that upcoding generates billions in excess public spending and significant distortions to firm and consumer behavior. We show that coding intensity increases with vertical integration, suggesting a principal-agent problem faced by insurers, who desire more intense coding from the providers with whom they contract.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Michael Geruso","Timothy Layton"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/704756","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-331c65d9f5b2c1cd","title":"Institutional Investors and Corporate Governance: The Incentive to Be Engaged","abstract":"This paper studies institutional investors’ incentives to be engaged shareholders. In 2017, the average institution gains an extra $129,000 in annual management fees if a stockholding increases 1% in value, considering both the direct effect on assets under management and the indirect effect on subsequent fund flows. The estimates range from $19,600 for investments in small firms to $307,600 for investments in large firms. Institutional shareholders in one firm often gain when the firm's competitors do well, by virtue of institutions’ holdings in those firms, but the impact of common ownership is modest in the most concentrated industries.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Jonathan Lewellen","Katharina Lewellen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13085","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-33217add3dd1c834","title":"The last Yugoslavs: Ethnic diversity and national identity","abstract":"Nation-building is often proposed as a device for integration in ethnically divided societies. The determinants of national sentiment, however, remain imperfectly understood. This paper analyses the role of interethnic contact in the process of nation formation within multiethnic Yugoslavia, just before its disintegration in 1991. Using a variety of data sources and empirical strategies, I find that interethnic contact stimulated the formation of the Yugoslav nation. I argue that ethnic intermarriage is the key mechanism through which ethnic diversity influenced the adoption of a shared Yugoslav identity. These results illustrate the powerful effect that interethnic contact can have in reducing ethnic division even in a tense ethnic environment on the verge of conflict, like that of Yugoslavia.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Leonard Kukić"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101504","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-33281fda0d9955e1","title":"Labor share and growth in the long run","abstract":"This paper establishes some stylized facts of the long-run relationship between growth and labor shares using historical data for the USA (1898–2010), the United Kingdom (1856–2010), and France (1896–2010). Performing individual country time–frequency analysis, we demonstrate the existence of long-term cycles in labor share of 30–50 years explaining a major part of the variance in the data. Further, the impact of labor share on growth changes sign with the frequency considered from negative at high frequencies to positive at low frequencies. Finally, the positive coefficient associated with the labor share at low frequencies increases over time.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Matthieu Charpe","Slim Bridji","Peter McAdam"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518001025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-33301378548d7fd7","title":"Comparing Cross-Section and Time-Series Factor Models","abstract":"We use the cross-section regression approach of Fama and MacBeth (1973) to construct cross-section factors corresponding to the time-series factors of Fama and French (2015). Time-series models that use only cross-section factors provide better descriptions of average returns than time-series models that use time-series factors. This is true when we impose constant factor loadings and when we use time-varying loadings that are natural for time-series factors and time-varying loadings that are natural for cross-section factors.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Eugene F. Fama","Kenneth R. French"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz089","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-333ba7993924f4be","title":"Preferences and Social Influence","abstract":"Interaction between decision makers may affect their preferences. We consider a setup in which each individual is characterized by two sets of preferences: his unchanged core preferences and his behavioral preferences. Each individual has a social influence function that determines his behavioral preferences given his core preferences and the behavioral preferences of other individuals in his group. Decisions are made according to behavioral preferences. The paper considers different properties of these social influence functions and their effect on equilibrium behavior.","wordCount":80,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Chaim Fershtman","Uzi Segal"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160190","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-33428d5a6ad2d068","title":"The Paper of How: Estimating Treatment Effects Using the Front‐Door Criterion","abstract":"We illustrate the use of Pearl's (1995) front‐door criterion with observational data with an application in which the assumptions for point identification hold. For identification, the front‐door criterion leverages exogenous mediator variables on the causal path. After a preliminary discussion of the identification assumptions behind and the estimation framework used for the front‐door criterion, we present an empirical application. In our application, we look at the effect of deciding to share an Uber or Lyft ride on tipping by exploiting the algorithm‐driven exogenous variation in whether one actually shares a ride conditional on authorizing sharing, the full fare paid, and origin–destination fixed effects interacted with two‐hour interval fixed effects. We find that most of the observed negative relationship between choosing to share a ride and tipping is driven by customer selection into sharing rather than by sharing itself. In the Appendix, we explore the consequences of violating the identification assumptions for the front‐door criterion.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Marc F. Bellemare","Jeffrey R. Bloem","Noah Wexler"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12598","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3369b1cc46cf620e","title":"On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market","abstract":"We provide empirical evidence on the heterogeneous transmission of monetary policy to the housing market across and within countries. We use household-level data from Germany, Italy and Switzerland together with the respective monetary policy shocks identified from high-frequency data. We find that the pass-through of monetary policy shocks to rates of newly originated (fixed-rate) mortgages is twice as strong in Switzerland as in Germany and Italy. After an accommodative monetary policy shock, this is associated in the housing market with a larger immediate, and persistent increase of transitions from renting to owning; a stronger decrease in rents; and an increase of the price–rent ratio. Within Italy, we find a stronger pass-through to mortgage rates, housing tenure transitions and the price–rent ratio in the northern regions that have been characterized in the literature as more financially developed than the southern regions.","wordCount":140,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Winfried Koeniger","Benedikt Lennartz","Marc-Antoine Ramelet"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104107","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3379c76ddedbc5ab","title":"Windfall gains and stock market participation","abstract":"We exploit the randomized assignment of lottery prizes in a large administrative Swedish data set to estimate the causal effect of wealth on stock market participation. A $150,000 windfall gain increases the stock market participation probability by 12 percentage points among prelottery nonparticipants but has no discernible effect on prelottery stock owners. A structural life cycle model significantly overpredicts entry rates even for very high entry costs (up to $31,000). Additional analyses implicate pessimistic beliefs regarding equity returns as a major source of this overprediction and suggest that both recent and early-life return realizations affect beliefs.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Joseph Briggs","David Cesarini","Erik Lindqvist","Robert Östling"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.07.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3385549038783f7b","title":"Retail Financial Advice: Does One Size Fit All?","abstract":"Using unique data on Canadian households, we show that financial advisors exert substantial influence over their clients' asset allocation, but provide limited customization. Advisor fixed effects explain considerably more variation in portfolio risk and home bias than a broad set of investor attributes that includes risk tolerance, age, investment horizon, and financial sophistication. Advisor effects remain important even when controlling flexibly for unobserved heterogeneity through investor fixed effects. An advisor's own asset allocation strongly predicts the allocations chosen on clients' behalf. This one‐size‐fits‐all advice does not come cheap: advised portfolios cost 2.5% per year, or 1.5% more than life cycle funds.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Stephen R. Foerster","Juhani T. Linnainmaa","Brian Melzer","Alessandro Previtero"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12514","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-338b9e0ff6d3b641","title":"Employment, job skills and occupational mobility of cancer survivors","abstract":"Previous studies find significant negative effects of cancer on employment, with stronger effects for less-educated workers. We investigate whether the effect of cancer varies by skill requirement in the pre-cancer occupation, whether such heterogeneity can explain educational gradients, and whether cancer is associated with changes in job characteristics for cancer survivors who remain employed four years after the diagnosis. We combine Danish administrative registers with detailed skill requirement data and use individuals without cancer as a control group. Our main findings are the following: the negative effect of cancer on employment is stronger if the pre-cancer occupation requires high levels of manual skills or low levels of cognitive skills; the educational gradient diminishes substantially if we allow the effects of cancer to also depend on pre-cancer skill requirements; and cancer is not associated with occupational mobility, indicating potential for policies that reduce labour market frictions for cancer survivors.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Eskil Heinesen","Susumu Imai","Shiko Maruyama"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.01.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-33bd9d2324ba7e9f","title":"Spillovers of US interest rates: Monetary policy & information effects","abstract":"This paper quantifies the international spillovers of U.S. interest rates by accounting for the “Fed Response to News” channel. Using the identification strategy of Bauer and Swanson (2023a), we decompose monetary policy surprises into two components: a pure U.S. monetary policy shock and a “Fed Response to News” component around FOMC meetings. I find that a U.S. monetary tightening driven by pure policy shocks causes a global recessions, exchange rate depreciation, and tighter financial conditions. In contrast, a tightening driven by the “Fed Response to News” channel leads to an economic expansion, exchange rate appreciation, and looser financial conditions. Ignoring the “Fed Response to News” channel biases estimates, explaining recent atypical findings of expansionary impacts. By isolating these components, I reconcile traditional and recent views of monetary policy spillovers. Results are robust across advanced and emerging economies, alternative methods, and identification strategies.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Santiago Camara"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104059","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-33c472a0d7917654","title":"Spatial and historical drivers of fake news diffusion: Evidence from anti-Muslim discrimination in India","abstract":"What drives the propagation of discriminatory fake news? To answer this question, this paper focuses on India at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: on March 30, a Muslim convention (the Tablighi Jamaat) in New Delhi became publicly recognized as a COVID hotspot. Using Twitter data, we build a comprehensive novel dataset of georeferenced tweets to identify anti-Muslim fake news. First, we document that fake news about Muslims intentionally spreading the virus spiked after March 30. Then, we investigate the geographical and historical determinants of the spread of fake news in a difference-in-difference setting. We find that the diffusion of anti-Muslim false stories was more pronounced (i) in districts closer to New Delhi, suggesting that fake news spread spatially; and (ii) in districts exposed to historical attacks by Muslim groups, suggesting that the propensity to disseminate fake news has deep-rooted historical origins.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Samira Sarah Abraham","Gianandrea Lanzara","Sara Lazzaroni","Paolo Masella","Mara P. Squicciarini"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103613","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-33c4f8badde59a82","title":"Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market","abstract":"We develop a dynamic model of belief dispersion with a continuum of investors differing in beliefs. The model is tractable and qualitatively matches many of the empirical regularities in a stock price and its mean return, volatility, and trading volume. We find that the stock price is convex in cash‐flow news and increases in belief dispersion, while its mean return decreases when the view on the stock is optimistic, and vice versa when pessimistic. Moreover, belief dispersion leads to higher stock volatility and trading volume. We demonstrate that otherwise identical two‐investor heterogeneous‐beliefs economies do not necessarily generate our main results.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Adem Atmaz","Suleyman Basak"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12618","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-33cef56b68914a81","title":"Altruism and efficient allocations in three-generation households","abstract":"In this paper we test the efficiency of family resource allocation in three-generation households. Understanding how the so-called “squeezed middle” generation allocates resources towards the children and grandparents in the household will be increasingly important as populations age, and more elderly people become dependent upon their relations for financial support. Despite a large literature on household resource allocation in two-generation households (parents and children), to the best of our knowledge ours is the first study that includes the third generation. We present a theoretical model and conduct a discrete choice experiment in the context of reductions in the lifetime risk of developing coronary artery disease to verify the efficient resource allocation hypothesis. The data is obtained from a large sample of the Polish population. The sample consists of the middle generation members of three-generation households and hence WTP represents household value from the perspective of the “squeezed middle” parent. The results imply that household resource allocation is efficient. This has implications for understanding the likely response to government financial support aimed at supporting elderly people and their families.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Anna Bartczak","Wiktor Budziński","Susan Chilton","Rebecca McDonald","Jytte Seested Nielsen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09350-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-33d22d6fa5c2c025","title":"Lost boys? Secondary education and crime","abstract":"We study the effect of secondary education on criminal behavior of young men in Finland. We exploit admission cut-offs in over-subscribed programs and estimate the effect of gaining access to a) any secondary school vs no access, b) general vs vocational school, and c) selective vs less selective general school. Our results show that admission to any secondary school has a sizeable negative effect on the propensity to commit crime. There are no effects at the other two margins. The negative effects at the extensive margin are largest in the years following school admission and result in a reduction of the probability of ever committing crime rather than simply delaying the onset of crime. Our results suggest that keeping youth at school at a critical age has effects that last beyond years where effects on enrollment are observed.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Kristiina Huttunen","Tuomas Pekkarinen","Roope Uusitalo","Hanna Virtanen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104804","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-33e5099d45700a91","title":"Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates","abstract":"We examine how cross-border input linkages shape the response of demand for value added to international relative price changes. We define a novel value-added real effective exchange rate (REER), which aggregates bilateral value-added price changes. Spillovers via input linkages lower the sensitivity of the value-added REER to price changes by supply chain partners because they counterbalance demand-side expenditure switching. Input linkages also raise the price elasticity of demand relative to the conventional REER framework, making demand more sensitive to REER changes. Using global input-output data, we demonstrate that these conceptual insights are quantitatively important in a case study of European competitiveness.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Rudolfs Bems","Robert C. Johnson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150216","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3400ad6d56cb9ce4","title":"A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory","abstract":"This paper develops a theory of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in matching models. The optimal UI replacement rate is the conventional Baily-Chetty replacement rate, which solves the tradeoff between insurance and job-search incentives, plus a correction term, which is positive when an increase in UI pushes the labor market tightness toward its efficient level. In matching models, most wage mechanisms do not ensure efficiency, so tightness is generally inefficient. The effect of UI on tightness depends on the model: increasing UI may raise tightness by alleviating the rat race for jobs or lower tightness by increasing wages through bargaining.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Camille Landais","Pascal Michaillat","Emmanuel Saez"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150088","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-340110ec250a50f3","title":"Women leaders improve environmental outcomes: Evidence from crop fires in India","abstract":"This paper provides the first plausibly causal evidence that women leaders improve environmental outcomes. Using a close-election regression discontinuity design, we find that the election of a female politician over a male politician decreases crop fire incidence and biomass-related particulate emissions in India. These effects are concentrated during the harvest and post-harvest months in districts that follow fire-suited cropping patterns. To understand mechanisms, we survey 424 male and female village council leaders in Punjab, the Indian state with the highest per capita incidence of crop fires. We find women leaders are more likely to consider crop fires a serious issue, weigh their impacts on child health, support regulations to decrease crop fire incidence, and implement specific crop residue management policies like private residue collection or encouraging crop residue use as fodder.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Maulik Jagnani","Meera Mahadevan"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105443","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-340b1a8cfc703ab6","title":"Access to Citizenship and the Economic Assimilation of Immigrants","abstract":"Immigrants often have lower employment rates and earnings than natives. Our empirical analysis relies on two reforms generating exogenous variation in the waiting time for citizenship. We find that faster access to citizenship improves the economic situation of immigrant women, especially their labour market attachment with higher employment rates, longer working hours and more stable jobs. Immigrants also invest more in host country‐specific skills like language and vocational training. Faster access to citizenship seems a powerful policy instrument to boost economic integration in countries with traditionally restrictive citizenship policies.","wordCount":89,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Christina Gathmann","Nicolas Keller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12546","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-34115166e56273c2","title":"The BCD of response time analysis in experimental economics","abstract":"For decisions in the wild, time is of the essence. Available decision time is often cut short through natural or artificial constraints, or is impinged upon by the opportunity cost of time. Experimental economists have only recently begun to conduct experiments with time constraints and to analyze response time (RT) data, in contrast to experimental psychologists. RT analysis has proven valuable for the identification of individual and strategic decision processes including identification of social preferences in the latter case, model comparison/selection, and the investigation of heuristics that combine speed and performance by exploiting environmental regularities. Here we focus on the benefits, challenges, and desiderata of RT analysis in strategic decision making. We argue that unlocking the potential of RT analysis requires the adoption of process-based models instead of outcome-based models, and discuss how RT in the wild can be captured by time-constrained experiments in the lab. We conclude that RT analysis holds considerable potential for experimental economics, deserves greater attention as a methodological tool, and promises important insights on strategic decision making in naturally occurring environments.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Leonidas Spiliopoulos","Andreas Ortmann"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9528-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-342a1f6ed2a155c0","title":"Land reform and agrarian socialism in interwar Europe: Evidence from 1930s Spain before civil war","abstract":"This paper studies the effects of various types of land reform on the voting of the rural poor in a developing, largely agrarian economy such as 1930s Spain. Using municipal-level electoral results in a region with intense but heterogeneous land-related interventions, we find that permanent transfers of land had the greatest positive impact on voting for leftist candidates, followed by temporary transfers of land aimed at alleviating the problem of seasonal unemployment. Poorly planned temporary transfers of land without adequate funding for beneficiaries made the landless more vulnerable to landowner control and had the opposite result. Our results show that the secret ballot might be insufficient to guarantee the free vote of economically dependent landless laborers. They also show that land reforms with poor support for beneficiaries might backfire.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jordi Domènech","Ilona Lahdelma","Pablo Martinelli"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101618","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-343b59a8a4624561","title":"Killer Acquisitions","abstract":"This paper argues that incumbent firms may acquire innovative targets solely to discontinue the target’s innovation projects and preempt future competition. We call such acquisitions “killer acquisitions.” We develop a model illustrating this phenomenon. Using pharmaceutical industry data, we show that acquired drug projects are less likely to be developed when they overlap with the acquirer’s existing product portfolio, especially when the acquirer’s market power is large because of weak competition or distant patent expiration. Conservative estimates indicate that 5.3%–7.4% of acquisitions in our sample are killer acquisitions. These acquisitions disproportionately occur just below thresholds for antitrust scrutiny.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Colleen Cunningham","Florian Ederer","Song Ma"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712506","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3449d98ab1b97bf0","title":"Twisted probabilities, uncertainty, and prices","abstract":"A decision maker constructs a convex set of nonnegative martingales to use as likelihood ratios that represent alternatives that are statistically close to a decision maker’s baseline model. The set is twisted to include some specific models of interest. Max–min expected utility over that set gives rise to equilibrium prices of model uncertainty expressed as worst-case distortions to drifts in a representative investor’s baseline model. Three quantitative illustrations start with baseline models having exogenous long-run risks in technology shocks. These put endogenous long-run risks into consumption dynamics that differ in details that depend on how shocks affect returns to capital stocks. We describe sets of alternatives to a baseline model that generate countercyclical prices of uncertainty.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Lars Peter Hansen","Bálint Szőke","Lloyd S. Han","Thomas J. Sargent"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.01.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3454debc994f7cd1","title":"Poverty and distributional effects of carbon pricing in low- and middle-income countries – A global comparative analysis","abstract":"Even though concerns about adverse distributional implications for the poor are one of the most important political challenges for carbon pricing, the existing literature reveals ambiguous results. For this reason, we assess the expected incidence of moderate carbon price increases for different income groups in 87 mostly low- and middle-income countries. Building on a consistent dataset and method, we find that for countries with per capita incomes of below USD 15,000 per year (at PPP-adjusted 2011 USD) carbon pricing has, on average, progressive distributional effects. We also develop a novel decomposition technique to show that distributional outcomes are primarily determined by differences among income groups in consumption patterns of energy, rather than of food, goods or services. We argue that an inverse U-shape relationship between energy expenditure shares and income explains why carbon pricing tends to be regressive in countries with relatively higher income. Since these countries are likely to have more financial resources and institutional capacities to deal with distributional issues, our findings suggest that mitigating climate change, raising domestic revenue and reducing economic inequality are not mutually exclusive, even in low- and middle-income countries.","wordCount":186,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Ira Irina Dorband","Michael Jakob","Matthias Kalkuhl","Jan Christoph Steckel"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-34572fa036fe6bf8","title":"The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem","abstract":"We provide a nonlinear characterization of the macroeconomic impact of microeconomic productivity shocks in terms of reduced‐form nonparametric elasticities for efficient economies. We also show how microeconomic parameters are mapped to these reduced‐form general equilibrium elasticities. In this sense, we extend the foundational theorem of Hulten (1978) beyond the first order to capture nonlinearities. Key features ignored by first‐order approximations that play a crucial role are: structural microeconomic elasticities of substitution, network linkages, structural microeconomic returns to scale, and the extent of factor reallocation. In a business‐cycle calibration with sectoral shocks, nonlinearities magnify negative shocks and attenuate positive shocks, resulting in an aggregate output distribution that is asymmetric (negative skewness), fat‐tailed (excess kurtosis), and has a negative mean, even when shocks are symmetric and thin‐tailed. Average output losses due to short‐run sectoral shocks are an order of magnitude larger than the welfare cost of business cycles calculated by Lucas (1987). Nonlinearities can also cause shocks to critical sectors to have disproportionate macroeconomic effects, almost tripling the estimated impact of the 1970s oil shocks on world aggregate output. Finally, in a long‐run growth context, nonlinearities, which underpin Baumol's cost disease via the increase over time in the sales shares of low‐growth bottleneck sectors, account for a 20 percentage point reduction in aggregate TFP growth over the period 1948–2014 in the United States.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["David Baqaee","Emmanuel Farhi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15202","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-345d5bc92a7017c6","title":"Incentive Regulation: Expectations, Surprises, and the Road Forward","abstract":"Forty years have passed since an inflation-adjusted price cap, widely called RPI-X, was proposed as a way of controlling prices in the UK’s newly privatised monopoly telecommunications company by a form of incentive regulation. The paper traces developments since then in several jurisdictions, within the context of a wider field of changing regulatory governance involving legislatures and governments as well as regulatory agencies. The focus is on, first, the experience of increasing complexity of the incentive schemes adopted, and second on the growing political salience of regulatory decisions which adds goals such as net zero, with more direct quantitative targets, to maximising consumer welfare. The implications of these changes for regulatory interventions are considered.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Martín Cave"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09976-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-346e069ab14d2187","title":"Football transfer fee premiums and Europe's big five","abstract":"This article studies the transfer market for international football players. Analyzing a sample of 5,760 player transfers over 14 years, we provide evidence that clubs in English football pay larger transfer fee premiums compared to clubs in the top leagues of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. While the popular press often mentions the English premiums, we empirically demonstrate both their existence and their causal source. Using annual data, we show that the dramatic increase in English premiums is causally linked to the 2012 television contracts the EPL signed with domestic and international broadcasters. These findings have policy implications for the clubs, players, and governing bodies of European football, as well as indirect consequences for export‐oriented football clubs.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Craig A. Depken","Tomislav Globan"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12471","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-346e719b60bc9390","title":"Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets","abstract":"Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally difficult to find observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom will turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their views because of “social dynamics.” Agents with tighter priors are more likely to convert others to their beliefs. Boom-bust episodes typically occur when skeptical agents happen to be correct. The booms that are not followed by busts typically occur when optimistic agents happen to be correct.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Craig Burnside","Martin Eichenbaum","Sérgio Rebelo"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686732","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3471de2bf74de604","title":"Incentives and culture in risk compliance","abstract":"In the finance industry, risk compliance has become an important issue after numerous policy violations resulting in significant costs for financial institutions and society as a whole. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment with 269 finance professionals, to investigate the effects of financial incentives and workplace culture on risk compliance. Relative to variable remuneration (linked to expected profits), fixed remuneration increases the proportion of people complying by as much as 25.1 percentage points. This is achieved with no diminution in productivity. Relative to a profit-focused workplace culture, a risk-focused workplace culture increases the proportion of people complying by 16.3 percentage points.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Elizabeth Sheedy","Le Zhang","Kenny Tam"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105611","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-34841cfa784fee79","title":"Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention: Evidence from Discontinuities in Military Strategies","abstract":"This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced noncommunist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions that pursued different counterinsurgency strategies. A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes toward the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a more hearts-and-minds-oriented approach.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Melissa Dell","Pablo Querubín"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx037","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3486cac793ef0d19","title":"The Cream of the Crop? Geography, Networks, and Irish Migrant Selection in the Age of Mass Migration","abstract":"With more than 30 million people moving to North America during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1913), governments feared that Europe was losing its most talented workers. Using new data from Ireland in the early twentieth century, I provide evidence to the contrary, showing that the sons of farmers and illiterate men were more likely to emigrate than their literate and skilled counterparts. Emigration rates were highest in poorer farming communities with stronger migrant networks. I constructed these data using new name-based techniques to follow people over time and to measure chain migration from origin communities to the United States.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Dylan S. Connor"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000682","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3493f7ae26ee16a4","title":"Has persistence persisted in private equity? Evidence from buyout and venture capital funds","abstract":"This paper presents new evidence on performance persistence for U.S. private equity (buyout and venture capital) funds. We use high quality cash-flow data from Burgiss's large sample of institutional investors (as of December 2020) which allows us to examine how persistence has changed over more than three decades of fundraising. Venture capital (VC) performance remains remarkably persistent across funds raised by the same general partner (GP). In contrast, buyout funds' performance persistence becomes noticeably weaker over time. The patterns are different when we restrict the analysis to information that would have been available to investors – interim performance on the previous fund at the time a new fund is raised – rather than using final, or latest, performance. We find little evidence of persistence for buyouts, especially post-2000. We continue to find persistence for VC funds though it declines post-2000. The differences are driven by interim performance reported at the time of fundraising being only moderately correlated to final performance and GPs avoiding fundraising when interim performance is poor. Finally, we look at GPs who introduce new fund styles and find that performance is noticeably lower for buyouts (but not VC). Exploring the reasons for these divergent trends in persistence between buyout and VC is a promising area for future research.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Robert S. Harris","Tim Jenkinson","Steven N. Kaplan","Ruediger Stucke"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102361","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3495cd80973fc67f","title":"Hybrid Marketplaces with Free Entry of Sellers","abstract":"We study a hybrid marketplace such as Amazon that sells its own products and sets commissions on third-party sellers that engage in monopolistic competition with free entry. For a large class of microfoundations based on a representative agent, the introduction of its own products by the marketplace is neutral for consumer welfare for a given commission; but this product introduction exerts an ambiguous impact through changes of the commission. A “demand substitution mechanism” pushes for a higher commission; but an “extensive margin mechanism” pushes for a lower commission that is aimed at attracting new sellers and more purchases on the marketplace. For instance, with constant demand elasticities, a hybrid marketplace sets a lower (higher) commission rate and increases (decreases) consumer welfare compared to a pure marketplace if its products face a less (more) elastic demand.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Federico Etro"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09893-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-349773277d205507","title":"The impact of Payment Services Directive 2 on the PayTech sector development in Europe","abstract":"The implementation of Payment Services Directive 2 (PSD2) has radically changed the regulatory environment for providing payment services in the European Economic Area. The main objective of the study is to determine the impact of PSD2 on the number of newly established PayTech companies. The second objective is to explain the factors driving the distribution of PSD2-licensed entities across the European Union countries. The difference-in-difference method and the Poisson regression model served our empirical analysis. The results show that the adoption of PSD2 in November 2015 caused a rapid but temporary surge in PayTech start-ups in Europe. After national transpositions of the directive, the number of new entrants fell in 2018; however, it remained at a higher level than before the adoption of PSD2, which indicates its positive impact. The analysis has proved that market potential, the characteristics of payment systems, including the popularity of payment cards, and the public environment for FinTech start-ups provided by the authorities significantly affected the number of PSD2 licences issued. The introduction of the PSD2 has made the size of the domestic market play a smaller role, as PayTechs can operate on a pan-European level also while based in a smaller country. The importance of an open business environment has increased and offering regulatory sandboxes has proven to effectively support the development of the PayTech sector.","wordCount":222,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Michał Polasik","Agnieszka Huterska","Rehan Iftikhar","Štěpán Mikula"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.07.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-34a10f538970508a","title":"The climate beta","abstract":"How does climate-change mitigation affect the aggregate consumption risk borne by future generations? In other words, what is the ‘climate beta’? In this paper we argue using a combination of theory and integrated assessment modelling that the climate beta is positive and close to unity for maturities of up to about one hundred years. This is because the positive effect on the climate beta of uncertainty about exogenous, emissions-neutral technological progress overwhelms the negative effect on the climate beta of uncertainty about the carbon-climate-response, particularly the climate sensitivity, and the damage intensity of warming. Mitigating climate change therefore has no insurance value to hedge the aggregate consumption risk borne by future generations. On the contrary, it increases that risk, which justifies a relatively high discount rate on the expected benefits of emissions reductions. However, the stream of undiscounted expected benefits is also increasing in the climate beta, and this dominates the discounting effect so that overall the net present value of carbon emissions abatement is increasing in the climate beta.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Simon Dietz","Christian Gollier","Louise Kessler"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.07.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-34b0d694301cd8a7","title":"Feelings and alcohol consumption","abstract":"Consumption choices depend on the feelings experienced in the period preceding a consumer's decisions. We confirm this hypothesis using a large sample of Italian consumers collected by ISTAT (the Italian National Statistics Institute) as part of the multi-purpose survey “Indagine multiscopo sulle famiglie: Aspetti della vita quotidiana” (n = 114,052). Specifically, positive feelings are associated with wine and beer consumption, while negative feelings relate to spirits consumption. The latter pattern is common among men and women, whereas the former is only applicable to male consumers. Additionally, older consumers drink more following a period of positive feelings, whereas younger consumers drink less. Our two-level modelling strategy confirms the mediating role of personal characteristics in explaining the relation between feelings and alcohol consumption.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Efi Vasileiou","Lara Agnoli","Steve Charters","Nikolaos Georgantzı́s"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102745","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-34b2b51d8347881e","title":"Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge","abstract":"We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring unit prices within narrowly defined product categories, we analyze two key sources of variation in prices within a store: temporary price discounts and differences across similar products. Price changes associated with discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast, cheapflation – a faster rise in prices of cheaper goods relative to prices of more expensive varieties of the same good – exacerbated it. Using Canadian Homescan Panel Data, we estimate that spending on discounts reduced the change in the average unit price by 4.1 percentage points, but expenditure switching to cheaper brands raised it by 2.8 percentage points.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Alberto Cavallo","Oleksiy Kryvtsov"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-34bf3e2813bb33a3","title":"Analyst recommendations and mispricing across the globe","abstract":"We examine the value of analysts’ recommendations using a dataset of 45 countries, 3.8 million firm-month observations, and 222 return anomalies from 1994 to 2019. Unlike U.S.-based evidence, recommendations lead to subsequent highly significant abnormal returns in international markets. Furthermore, analysts do not seem to strengthen mispricing in international markets, as they give more favorable recommendations to (anomaly-ranked) underpriced stocks, and inconsistencies between recommendations and composite anomaly ranks lead to lower, not higher, abnormal returns. Recommendations are more valuable in less developed and less individualistic markets. Our results suggest that analysts’ recommendations provide more value to investors than previously thought.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Vitor Azevedo","Sebastian Müller"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107296","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-34ce7ac421938a69","title":"Connecting Disconnected Financial Markets?","abstract":"In most financial markets, securities are traded in isolation. Such a disconnected market design can be inefficient if agents trade more than one security. I assess welfare effects of connecting markets by allowing orders for one security to depend on prices of other securities. I show that everyone trades identical amounts under both market structures if and only if the clearing prices are perfectly correlated or all are price-takers. Prices in disconnected markets might allow strategic traders to extract higher rents from nonstrategic traders. In expectation, connected markets generate higher welfare, but all markets become efficient as they grow large.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Milena Wittwer"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180314","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-34dfadc7571c4871","title":"People are conditional rule followers","abstract":"Experimental participants are more likely to follow an arbitrary rule the more others in their reference group do so as well. The effect is most pronounced for individuals who follow few rules when not knowing others’ behavior. Unlike what is observed for conditional cooperation, learning that only few others follow a rule does not reduce rule following.","wordCount":57,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Pieter Desmet","Christoph Engel"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102384","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-34ee3343956387b7","title":"What drives the acceptability of restrictive health policies: An experimental assessment of individual preferences for anti-COVID 19 strategies","abstract":"The public acceptability of a policy is an important issue in democracies, in particular for anti-COVID-19 policies, which require the adherence of the population to be applicable and efficient. Discrete choice experiment (DCE) can help elicit preference ranking among various policies for the whole population and subgroups. Using a representative sample of the French population, we apply DCE methods to assess the acceptability of various anti-COVID-19 measures, separately and as a package. Owing to the methods, we determine the extent to which acceptability depends on personal characteristics: political orientation, health vulnerability, or age. The young population differs in terms of policy preferences and their claim for monetary compensation, suggesting a tailored policy for them. The paper provides key methodological tools based on microeconomic evaluation of individuals' preferences for improving the design of public health policies.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Thierry Blayac","Dimitri Dubois","Sébastien Duchêne","Phu Nguyen‐Van","Bruno Ventelou","Marc Willinger"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106047","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-34f55d7e69b0b559","title":"Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods","abstract":"Tax reforms are often motivated by their potential to improve economic performance. However, their actual impacts are difficult to quantify. We analyze the impact of flat tax reform on incomes using “synthetic control” methods. We identify the eight Eastern and Central European countries that adopted flat tax systems between 1994 and 2005, and then compare post‐reform GDP per capita of “treated” countries with a convex combination of similar but “untreated” countries, while accounting for the time‐varying impact of unobservable heterogeneity. We find positive impacts in all eight countries, with seven out of eight cases significant at the conventional level.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Bibek Adhikari","James Alm"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12152","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-34f977411f8566f0","title":"Data sharing and tax enforcement: Evidence from short-term rentals in Denmark","abstract":"Airbnb and other home-sharing platforms have been facing increasing regulation over the past years, mainly in the form of restricting short-term rentals through day caps. In contrast, as one of the first countries in the world, Denmark applied a collaborative strategy: In 2018, the government negotiated an agreement with Airbnb about the transmission of income data from the platform to the tax agency. We analyze how this data-sharing agreement affected hosts' behavior on the platform, using a difference-in-differences approach with Sweden as a counterfactual. We find that the agreement reduced hosts’ propensity to list property on the platform by 14%, while increasing listing prices by 11%. Our results indicate that platform exits were mostly limited to single-property hosts. In contrast, hosts with many properties and those in areas with initially low Airbnb penetration made their rental objects more often available and managed to increase the number of bookings. Overall, the findings imply that the data-sharing agreement not only helped to increase tax compliance but also led to a commercialization and spatial re-organization of short-term renting in Denmark.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Marcel Garz","Andrea Schneider"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103912","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-34ff428227ed122a","title":"A jumping index of jumping stocks? An MCMC analysis of continuous-time models for individual stocks","abstract":"This paper examines continuous-time models for the S&P 100 index and its constituents. We find that the jump process of the typical stock looks significantly different than that of the index. Most importantly, the average size of a jump in the returns of the typical stock is positive, while it is negative for the index. Furthermore, the estimates of the parameters for the stochastic processes exhibit pronounced heterogeneity in the cross-section of stocks. For example, we find that the jump size in returns decreases for larger companies. Finally, we find that a jump in the index is not necessarily accompanied by a large number of contemporaneous jumps in its constituent’s stocks. Indeed, we find index jump days on which only one index constituent also jumps. As a consequence, we show that index jumps can be classified as induced by either synchronous price movements of individual stocks or macroeconomic events.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Alessandro Pollastri","Paulo M.M. Rodrigues","Christian Schlag","Norman Seeger"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.11.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-350359e73a5d2324","title":"Perceived FOMC: The making of hawks, doves and swingers","abstract":"An important and open question in monetary economics is how the Federal Reserve makes its policy decisions. We document that when an FOMC member was born, his/her educational background and the Committee’s changing hawk-dove composition have predictable effects on FOMC decisions. The odds of an FOMC member being a hawk are higher when he/she graduated from a university linked to the Chicago school of economics; instead, a dove likely graduated from a university with strong Keynesian beliefs and was born during a period of high unemployment. These findings have implications for the choice of and confirmation of FOMC members.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Michael D. Bordo","Klodiana Istrefi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-350e55a7cc649cc1","title":"Climate risk and payout flexibility around the world","abstract":"Using a large sample of firms from 45 countries, we find that firms in countries with high-climate risk reduce their cash dividends but increasingly use share repurchases to make payouts. The evidence suggests that firms substitute dividends with repurchases to increase their payout flexibility in response to heightened climate risk. Operating volatility and financial constraints are two channels through which climate risk affects firms’ payout flexibility. Further analysis shows that the effect of climate risk on payout flexibility is more pronounced for firms that are more vulnerable to climate risk, and in countries where people are more concerned about climate risk and the national culture emphasizes uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Yuyuan Chang","Wen He","Mi Lin"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107233","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-352c4efb28cdb199","title":"Immigration, Employment Opportunities, and Criminal Behavior","abstract":"We take advantage of provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA), which granted legal resident status to long-time unauthorized residents but created new obstacles to employment for more recent immigrants, to explore how employment opportunities affect criminal behavior. Exploiting administrative data on the criminal justice involvement of individuals in San Antonio, Texas and using a triple-differences strategy, we find evidence of an increase in felony charges filed against residents most likely to be negatively affected by IRCA's employment regulations. Our results suggest a strong relationship between access to legal jobs and criminal behavior.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Matthew Freedman","Emily Owens","Sarah Bohn"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150165","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3539a09a528050ed","title":"Assessing the synergistic effects of artificial intelligence on pollutant and carbon emission mitigation in China","abstract":"Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key driver in the latest wave of scientific and technological advancement, and its rapid development, proliferation, and environmental impacts cannot be ignored. China and numerous emerging economies are confronted with the dual challenges of environmental degradation and climate change. Hence, it is imperative to assess whether the advancement of AI can contribute to a synergistic reduction in pollutant and CO2 emissions. This paper utilizes the system-generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to study the synergistic effect of artificial intelligence on mitigating pollutant and carbon emissions. The following three main conclusions are drawn: (1) AI plays a major role in synergistically decreasing pollutant and CO2 emissions; (2) AI indirectly helps lower pollutant and CO2 emissions by fostering technological advancements and enhancing industrial structures. Although it contributes to an increase in emissions by expanding production scale, its suppression effect dominates overall; (3) The impact of AI applications is particularly vital in cities with strict environmental controls, especially in the central and eastern regions. Finally, we suggest some policy measures to augment the influence of AI in reducing emissions and attaining sustainable development.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Wenli Zhong","Yang Liu","Kangyin Dong","Guohua Ni"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107829","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-35407f10566f4330","title":"Real wages once more: a response to Judy Stephenson","abstract":"This article examines Judy Stephenson's claim that institutional wage series such as those of Greenwich Hospital overstate the earnings of building workers by 20 to 30 per cent, and it is argued here that the conclusion is unpersuasive. Whatever adjustments to existing wage series are necessary in view of her new evidence would have no significant implications for real wages in England compared to the rest of the world. Consequently, Stephenson's findings do not call into question the high wage explanation for the industrial revolution.","wordCount":85,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Robert C. Allen"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12663","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-354376cc78112dfe","title":"Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses During the Great Recession","abstract":"This article argues that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the transmission of consumer demand shocks during the Great Recession. Using micro-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we find that establishments of more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger employment losses in response to declines in local consumer demand. These results are not driven by firms being less productive, having expanded too much prior to the Great Recession, or being generally more sensitive to fluctuations in either aggregate employment or house prices. Likewise, at the county level, we find that counties with more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger declines in employment in response to local consumer demand shocks. Accordingly, firms’ balance sheets also matter for aggregate employment. Our results suggest a possible role for employment policies that target firms directly besides conventional stimulus.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Xavier Giroud","Holger M. Mueller"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw035","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-354f24d19ac3dbd0","title":"What do vars tell us about the impact of a credit supply shock?","abstract":"In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, a variety of structural vector autoregression (VAR) models have been proposed to identify credit supply shocks. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, we show that the performance of these models can vary substantially, with some identification schemes producing particularly misleading results. When applied to U.S. data, the estimates from the best performing VAR models indicate, on average, that credit supply shocks that raise spreads by 10 basis points reduce GDP growth and inflation by 1% after one year. These shocks were important during the Great Recession, accounting for about half the decline in GDP growth.","wordCount":102,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Haroon Mumtaz","Gábor Pintér","Konstantinos Theodoridis"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12282","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3550f2e9e045f6bd","title":"Endogenous personalized pricing in the Hotelling model","abstract":"We study endogenous personalized pricing in Hotelling’s model with vertically differentiated products, cost asymmetries and linear adjustment costs. We characterize the equilibrium and its welfare consequences. Adopting personalized pricing is the dominant strategy for both companies. The less efficient company never gains compared to competition in uniform pricing. We clarify the conditions under which the more efficient company can gain from competition in personalized pricing. Aggregate consumer surplus increases, but personalized pricing can harm consumers who purchase from the more-efficient (high-quality) firm.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Harold Houba","Evgenia Motchenkova","Hui Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111037","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3557cbf37b4adb0d","title":"An experimental investigation of cooperation in the dynamic common pool game","abstract":"This article studies experimentally to what extent subjects can cooperate in a dynamic common pool game, where the stage game changes endogenously. Although efficiency can be supported with strategies that condition on history, the main finding is that it is difficult to cooperate. Even if the incentives to cooperate are large, modal behavior can be rationalized with equilibrium Markov strategies that do not condition on history. The popularity of Markov strategies, however, is decreasing in the incentives to cooperate. The evidence also suggests that strategic uncertainty added by facing stage games that change in time may move play away from efficiency.","wordCount":101,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Emanuel Vespa"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12428","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-35712ea1a5245242","title":"The impact of off-grid solar home systems in Kenya on energy consumption and expenditures","abstract":"This paper assesses the impact of solar home systems (SHS) on energy consumption and energy-related expenditures among Kenyan households. Based on a pipeline comparison approach of more than a thousand households, we find that access to a SHS leads to a net increase of 24 to 36 min in daily lighting use due to a 3 h increase in the use of LED lamps, accompanied by a reduction in the use of “dirty” lamps. We also find a one litre reduction in the monthly use of kerosene for lighting. These changes in energy use along with a decline in the cost of charging mobile phones leads to a reduction in overall monthly expenditure of KSh 193 (about EUR 1.60). For the most popular SHS, these economic effects translate into a payback period of about six years. In addition to the economic benefits, we find small positive environmental effects, increased satisfaction from better quality lighting and an increase in time spent watching TV. Setting the costs against the combined benefits of SHS suggests a positive payoff for this particular off-grid electricity option and a viable way forward in providing off-grid energy solutions with a wide range of functionalities in developing countries.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Natascha Wagner","Matthias Rieger","Arjun S. Bedi","Jurgen Vermeulen","Binyam Afewerk Demena"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105314","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-35798244d93e1a7a","title":"Machine Learning for the Unlisted: Enhancing MSME Default Prediction with Public Market Signals","abstract":"This paper contributes to the growing body of research on private firms, particularly private firm accounting. We explore the economic factors that drive improvements in the default prediction of unlisted private firms using peers’ market-based information. Specifically, we examine how the market-based default probability of a peer firm can provide valuable insights into the often noisy accounting data of private firms. Our analysis delves deeply into these economic issues to uncover essential insights. To address our research question, we utilize a granular proprietary dataset of 10,136 Italian micro-, small-, and mid-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that are required to disclose their financial statements publicly. We propose a novel public–private firm mapping approach to investigate whether incorporating peers’ market-based information improves the accuracy of default predictions for private unlisted firms. Our mapping approach matches the market information of listed firms with private firms through a data-driven clustering technique using Neural Network Autoencoder. This method enables us to link the Merton Probability of Default (PD) of public peers to the corresponding private firms within the same cluster. We then apply five statistical techniques – linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbours and random forests – to predict corporate default among private firms, comparing model performance with and without the inclusion of Merton’s PD estimated using peers’ market-based information. To assess the contribution of each predictor, we employ Shapley values. Our results demonstrate a significant improvement in default prediction for unlisted private firms when incorporating peers’ market-based information, confirming that the noisy accounting data of private firms alone hinders accurate default prediction. Furthermore, our findings highlight the importance for banks to broaden the scope of information used in credit risk assessments of private firms. These results have important policy implications for financial institutions and policymakers, providing a tool to mitigate the challenges posed by the noisy information disclosure of MSMEs while ensuring more accurate credit risk assessments.","wordCount":316,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Alessandro Bitetto","Stefano Filomeni","Michele Modina"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102830","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-357a0f249d963a5c","title":"Corporate Social Responsibility along the global value chain","abstract":"Locating substantial parts of the production process in developing and emerging economies, many firms face an increasing demand by stakeholders for Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) along their value chains. Contractual incompleteness between firms and their suppliers at different stages of production can exacerbate the ability to meet these demands. We analyze a model of sequential production with incomplete contracts where CSR by independent suppliers differentiates the final product in the eyes of caring consumers. Progressing down the value chain, our model predicts an increasing CSR profile from upstream suppliers with low CSR to downstream suppliers with higher CSR. We confirm this prediction using Indian firm-level data – computing a firm’s value chain position by combining its product-level sales information with the World Input-Output Database. We find that more downstream firms report higher CSR expenditures as measured by a combination of staff welfare spending and social community spending.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Philipp Herkenhoff","Sebastian Krautheim","Finn Ole Semrau","Frauke Steglich"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","M"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103236","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-358970e49588e3fb","title":"Trading in Networks: Theory and Experiments","abstract":"We propose a model of posted prices in networks. The model maps traditional concepts of market power, competition, and double marginalization into networks, allowing for the study of pricing in complex structures of intermediation, such as supply chains, transportation and communication networks, and financial brokerage. We provide a complete characterization of equilibrium prices. Our experiments complement our theoretical work and point to node criticality as an organizing principle for understanding pricing, efficiency, and the division of surplus in networked markets.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Syngjoo Choi","Andrea Galeotti","Sanjeev Goyal"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw016","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-358d6490b544786a","title":"Birthplace diversity and team performance","abstract":"Using hand-collected and web-scraped data on 7208 matches and 3266 players from the highest division of German male football, this paper examines how birthplace diversity affects team performance. The results of two instrumental variable analyses suggest that birthplace diversity has a hump-shaped effect on team performance. To explain our result, we argue that nationally diverse teams have a wider range of skills and face greater communication barriers.","wordCount":67,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Enzo Brox","Tommy Krieger"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102288","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-359087b124b2609e","title":"Upstream Competition with Complex and Unobservable Contracts","abstract":"This paper examines situations where two vertically integrated firms consider supplying an input to an independent downstream competitor via privately observed contracts. We identify equilibria where competition in the upstream market emerges—the downstream competitor gets supplied—as well as when the downstream firm does not receive the input and is excluded from the market. The likelihood of the outcome in which the downstream firm does not get supplied depends not only on demand parameters, but also on contractual flexibility and observability. We show that when contracts are unobservable, downstream entry will occur less often. Furthermore, our results suggest that permitting contracts that enable the contracting parties to coordinate their behavior in the downstream market may improve welfare by increasing the likelihood that the downstream firm is supplied.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["İzak Atiyas","Toker Doğanoğlu","Fırat İnceoğlu"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09766-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-35a1fc5579858ead","title":"Review: Do green defaults reduce meat consumption?","abstract":"Meat consumption and production cause a significant share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the food sector. Behavioural food policy suggests using defaults – i.e., pre-setting a specific choice option – as an effective demand-side instrument to reduce meat consumption. This systematic review compiles, critically appraises, and synthesises existing empirical evidence on defaults that aim to reduce meat consumption. Beyond that, the underlying mechanisms and potential effect moderators in this context are explored. Our synthesis includes twelve individual studies comprising sixteen different default interventions. Although the extent of evidence is limited, we assess the quality to be relatively good. We find that defaults are effective in nudging consumers to eat less meat; despite heterogeneity in the design and implementation of interventions, virtually all studies find the default to reduce meat consumption. Moreover, our explorative analysis provides insights into how the default works in this context. First, we suppose the default primarily operates through the underlying mechanisms of endorsement and effort. Second, we identify four contextual moderators – namely the default’s invasiveness, the recognisability and presentation of the alternative, and the objective of the study setting – that appear to influence the impact. We conclude that defaults are a promising tool for climate-sensitive food policy. Future research could verify and quantify the causal impact of mechanisms and moderators, and assess defaults’ long-term and large-scale effectiveness.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Johanna Meier","Mark Andor","Friederike C. Doebbe","Neal Haddaway","Lucia A. Reisch"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102298","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-35a35cc3651492e0","title":"Financial fraud and individual investment behavior","abstract":"We show that, after the revelation of financial fraud in a major pension fund manager, two-thirds of affected investors fail to divest. Inert investors are on average younger, of lower SES and more influenced by default options. The majority of those who divest move their money to the only state-run option on the fund menu. The revelation of fraud also induces a small movement of investors from non-fraudulent private investment funds to the state alternative. We further show that most fraud victims end up in underperforming high-fee funds through their prior affiliation with a subscription-based financial advisor. Our analysis is based on the remarkable events surrounding the expulsion of Allra from the Swedish Premium Pension, and administrative, individual-level data on mutual fund choices and background characteristics. Our results illustrate that fraudulent fund managers may exploit widespread consumer biases in choice-oriented pension plans, and that information interventions by the government are important but far from fully effective in nudging victimized investors to take the right action. Pension plans may be characterized by investor inertia even under extreme circumstances such as fraud.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Johannes Hagen","Amedeus Malisa"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.09.015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-35ae8c4598d0cdab","title":"The costs of macroprudential policy","abstract":"Central banks increasingly rely on macroprudential measures to manage the financial cycle. However, the effects of such measures on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown. In this paper we quantify the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on output and inflation. We rely on a narrative identification approach based on detailed reading of policy-makers' objectives when implementing the measures. We find that over a four year horizon, a 10 percentage point decrease in the maximum LTV ratio leads to a 1.1% reduction in output. As a rule of thumb, the impact of a 10 percentage point LTV tightening can be viewed as roughly comparable to that of a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate. However, the effects are imprecisely estimated and the effect is only present in emerging market economies. We also find that tightening LTV limits has larger economic effects than loosening them. At the same time, we show that changes in maximum LTV ratios have substantial effects on credit and house price growth. Using inverse propensity weights to rerandomise LTV actions, we show that these effects are likely causal.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Björn Richter","Moritz Schularick","Ilhyock Shim"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.11.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-35b0b5b1e1380dff","title":"Leadership heuristic","abstract":"The economics literature offers at least two main explanations of why individuals adopt the heuristic of following their leader’s suggestion: First, the leader has information or a talent relevant to the task at hand and, second, the leader’s suggestion helps to reduce uncertainty and to coordinate the group on one choice. The psychology literature offers another explanation: The leader, acting as an “ethical example,” helps to increase job satisfaction, performance, and prosocial behavior. Both lines of literature, although in different ways, assume rational choice on the part of followers. Neither literature addresses the question: Would people adopt the leadership heuristic if the leader lacks any relevant information, talent advantage, ethical character, or other desirable traits? We report experimental evidence that suggests the answer is yes. In our experiment, leaders suggest the outcome of a fair “coin toss.” Leaders vary in (irrelevant) “information” and (irrelevant) “ability” possessed. Although there is no feedback after each period, we find that one-third of all the decisions of the participants heuristically follow the leader’s choice. This is surprising given that, first, the leader’s choice is irrelevant and, second, to follow it would be payoff-reducing. Payoff-reducing choices of subjects are more frequent with irrelevantly informed leaders than with irrelevantly talented leaders. Crucially, we also show that the findings are not driven by lack of understanding of random events. In short, neither the hot-hand and gambler’s fallacies nor attributes that might inspire trust/loyalty can explain subjects’ choices.","wordCount":240,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Carina Cavalcanti","Philip J. Grossman","Elias L. Khalil"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102661","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-35b2155dc4b3d725","title":"Measuring Ambiguity Attitudes for All (Natural) Events","abstract":"Measurements of ambiguity attitudes have so far focused on artificial events, where (subjective) beliefs can be derived from symmetry of events and can be then controlled for. For natural events as relevant in applications, such a symmetry and corresponding control are usually absent, precluding traditional measurement methods. This paper introduces two indexes of ambiguity attitudes, one for aversion and the other for insensitivity/perception, for which we can control for likelihood beliefs even if these are unknown. Hence, we can now measure ambiguity attitudes for natural events. Our indexes are valid under many ambiguity theories, do not require expected utility for risk, and are easy to elicit in practice. We use our indexes to investigate time pressure under ambiguity. People do not become more ambiguity averse under time pressure but become more insensitive (perceive more ambiguity). These findings are plausible and, hence, support the validity of our indexes.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Zhenxing Huang","Asli Selim","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14370","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-35beb3dbfa545548","title":"Consumer preferences for farm-raised meat, lab-grown meat, and plant-based meat alternatives: Does information or brand matter?","abstract":"Despite rising interest in and sales of innovative non-animal-based protein sources, there remains a lack of information about consumer demand for these new foods and their ultimate market potential. This study reports the results of a nationwide survey of more than 1800 U.S. consumers who completed a choice experiment in which they selected among conventional beef and three alternative burger patties, (lab-grown, plant-based with pea protein, and plant-based with animal-like protein) at different prices. Respondents were randomly allocated to treatments that varied in the presence/absence of brands and information about the competing alternatives. Results from random parameter logit models indicate that, holding prices constant and conditional on choosing a food product, 72% chose farm-raised beef and 28% chose one of the alternatives: 16% plant-based (pea protein) meat alternative, 7% plant-based (animal-like protein) meat alternative, and 5% lab-grown meat. Adding brand names (Certified Angus Beef, Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, and Memphis Meats) increased the share for choosing farm-raised beef to 80%. Environment and technology information had minor effects on conditional market shares but reduced the share of people not buying any options, indicating information pulled more people into the market. Even if plant- and lab-grown alternatives experienced significant (e.g., 50%) price reductions, farm-raised beef maintains the majority market share. Vegetarians, males, younger, and more highly educated individuals tend to have relatively stronger preferences for the plant- and lab-grown alternatives relative to farm-raised beef. More people opposed than supported taxing conventional beef for environmental and animal welfare objectives and more opposed than supported having plant- and lab-grown alternatives use the label ‘beef’","wordCount":260,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Ellen J. Van Loo","Vincenzina Caputo","Jayson L. Lusk"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101931","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-35c4b94a848a4227","title":"Pandemic‐era changes to medicaid enrollment and funding: Implications for future policy and research","abstract":"The COVID‐19 public health emergency led to federal legislation that changed the landscape of Medicaid coverage for low‐income people in the United States. Policy responses led to a surge in Medicaid caseloads due to new rules preventing Medicaid disenrollment, and total Medicaid enrollment increased more from 2020 to 2023 than the net increase in insurance coverage from 2013 to 2017 following the Affordable Care Act's implementation. It is crucial for scholars and practitioners to understand the implications of this continuous coverage policy and its 2023–2024 unwinding. This paper provides an overview of Medicaid enrollment, renewal, and funding policies, highlighting how policy changed during and immediately following the acute phase of the pandemic; describes enrollment increases and their composition; reviews relevant literature; and identifies key areas for research. By examining this unprecedented period in Medicaid, we can inform future policy decisions and optimize safety net programs to be effective under a broad set of circumstances.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Laura Dague","Benjamin Ukert"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22539","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-35eec8452677f44b","title":"The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration","abstract":"We use online job application data to study the relationship between search intensity and search duration. The data allow us to control for job seeker composition and the evolution of available job openings over the duration of search. We find that, within an individual search spell, search intensity declines continuously. We also find that longer-duration job seekers search more intensely throughout their search. They tend to be older, male, nonemployed, and live in areas with weaker labor markets. Our findings contradict standard assumptions of labor search models. We discuss how to reconcile the theory with our evidence.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["R. Jason Faberman","Marianna Kudlyak"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170315","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-35fe21f837e65326","title":"The Flash Crash: High‐Frequency Trading in an Electronic Market","abstract":"We study intraday market intermediation in an electronic market before and during a period of large and temporary selling pressure. On May 6, 2010, U.S. financial markets experienced a systemic intraday event—the Flash Crash—where a large automated selling program was rapidly executed in the E‐mini S&P 500 stock index futures market. Using audit trail transaction‐level data for the E‐mini on May 6 and the previous three days, we find that the trading pattern of the most active nondesignated intraday intermediaries (classified as High‐Frequency Traders) did not change when prices fell during the Flash Crash.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Andrei Kirilenko","Albert S. Kyle","Mehrdad Samadi","Tugkan Tuzun"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12498","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-35ff35dbea7963d0","title":"Incentives in Experiments: A Theoretical Analysis","abstract":"Experimental economists currently lack a convention for how to pay subjects in experiments with multiple tasks. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing this question. Assuming statewise monotonicity and nothing else, we prove that paying for one randomly chosen problem—the random problem selection mechanism—is essentially the only incentive compatible mechanism. Paying for every period is similarly justified when we assume only a “no complementarities at the top” condition. To help experimenters decide which is appropriate for their particular experiment, we discuss empirical tests of these two assumptions.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Yaron Azrieli","Christopher P. Chambers","Paul J. Healy"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/698136","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-35ff90e2fad2ca64","title":"Mothers, Peers, and Gender-Role Identity","abstract":"We study whether a woman’s labor supply as a young adult is shaped by the work behavior of her adolescent peers’ mothers. Using detailed information on a sample of U.S. teenagers who are followed over time, we find that labor force participation of high school peers’ mothers affects adult women’s labor force participation, above and beyond the effect of their own mothers. The analysis suggests that women who were exposed to a larger number of working mothers during adolescence are less likely to feel that work interferes with family responsibilities. This perception, in turn, is important for whether they work when they have children.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Claudia Olivetti","Eleonora Patacchini","Yves Zénou"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-360a5ebfe3f5cc27","title":"Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs","abstract":"In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to estimate a proxy structural vector autoregression to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that during the Great Moderation period, monetary policy shocks induce a persistent decline in real activity and tightening in financial conditions. Central to this result is a systematic component of monetary policy characterized by a direct and economically significant reaction to changes in corporate credit spreads. The failure to account for this endogenous reaction induces an attenuation in the response of all variables to monetary shocks, a result that also applies to the narrative identification of Romer and Romer (2004).","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Dario Caldara","Edward Herbst"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170294","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-36106f7c4b8b256a","title":"Caste and development: Contemporary perspectives on a structure of discrimination and advantage","abstract":"Inherited caste identity is an important determinant of life opportunity for a fifth of the world’s population, but is not given the same significance in global development policy debates as gender, race, age, religion or other identity characteristics. This review asks why addressing caste-based inequality and discrimination does not feature in intergovernmental commitments such as the Sustainable Development Goals, and whether it should. Taking India as its focus, it finds that caste has been treated as an archaic system and source of historical disadvantage due compensation through affirmative action in ways that overlook its continuing importance as a structure of advantage and of discrimination in the modern economy, especially post-liberalization from the 1990s. A body of recent literature from anthropology, economics, history and political science is used to explore the modern life of caste in society, economy and development. Questions are asked about caste as social hierarchy, the role of caste in post-liberalization rural inequality, in urban labor markets and in the business economy, and the effect of policies of affirmative action in public-sector education and employment. Caste is found to be a complex institution, simultaneously weakened and revived by current economic and political forces; it is a contributor to persisting national socioeconomic and human capital disparities, and has major impacts on subjective wellbeing. Caste effects are not locational; they travel from the village to the city and into virtually all markets. Caste persists in the age of the market because of its advantages – its discriminations allow opportunity hoarding for others; and the threat of the advancement of subordinated groups provokes humiliating violence against them. The evidence points to the need for policy innovation to address market and non-market discrimination and to remove barriers, especially in the informal and private sector; and to ensure caste has its proper place in the global development policy debate.","wordCount":306,"journal":"World Development","authors":["David Mosse"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.06.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-36158b94c6b36302","title":"Cutting special interests by the roots: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon","abstract":"Government policies may impact economic outcomes directly but also indirectly through effects on political incentives. This paper examines the effects of the PPCDAm – a centralized set of environmental policies that effectively raised the expected cost of illegal deforestation – on the behavior of a powerful special-interest group operating in the Brazilian Amazon: farmers. Using different identification strategies, we document that municipalities governed by farmer politicians experienced larger declines in deforestation, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and violence than municipalities governed by other politicians after this set of policies was implemented. Our findings suggest the PPCDAm had indirect and persistent effects on political incentives, amplifying its impact on environmental and social outcomes.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Arthur Bragança","Ricardo Dahis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104753","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-361bfa15874795c6","title":"Rural household migration in China – the roles of actual and perceived tenure security","abstract":"Migration can make an important contribution to rural poverty reduction and overall productivity growth, but it may be limited by prevailing rural land tenure arrangements. Since 1998, the Chinese government has implemented a number of land tenure reforms with the aim of improving the tenure security and the transferability of land. Although these reforms enhanced legal tenure security, it is not clear to what extent they remove existing land tenure bottlenecks in migration. Both actual tenure security, i.e. local implementation of laws that warrant tenure security, and household perceptions of tenure security are likely to play a role. In this paper we examine the impacts of actual and perceived tenure security on rural household migration in China, taking into account the degree of development of land rental markets. We argue that actual and perceived tenure security can have both positive and negative effects on migration decisions and that the presence of land rental markets may modify these effects. A two-step control function approach that controls for endogeneity of tenure security perceptions is applied to household and village-level data collected in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning provinces and Chongqing municipality. We find that both actual and perceived tenure security affect migration, but the impact of perceived tenure security measured by land reallocation expectations is much stronger and is positive, whereas the independent impact of actual tenure security is negative. Households perceiving a lower risk of losing land when one or more members migrate are more inclined to migrate, independent of the availability of land rental markets in their villages. Actual tenure security, as measured by absence of land reallocations and possession of land certificates, has an independent negative effect on migration only in villages with underdeveloped land rental markets.","wordCount":286,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Guangcheng Ren","Xueqin Zhu","Nico Heerink","Shuyi Feng"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101534","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-362133fec3f2cb3b","title":"Purely hedonic image concerns and audience size: Evidence from a charity dictator game","abstract":"We study whether image preferences in isolation from strategic considerations, namely purely hedonic image concerns , can motivate prosocial behavior and whether this audience effect is mediated by the number of observers. Answers to related questions from the extant experimental literature are often mixed or influenced by multiple mechanisms evoked by the context at hand or design employed. We employ an experiment involving a dictator game with a charity receiver and a binary choice with unambiguous social valence. Choices are observed by an anonymous, passive, and external audience whose size varies across treatments. Our simple experimental design allows us to isolate purely hedonic image concerns about appearing altruistic from strategic considerations and other confounding features of alternative designs. We find that donations rise by 10.2 percentage points on average when audiences are present, with every observer increasing the probability of donating by an estimated 2.12 percentage points. We provide evidence that the size of the audience also matters.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Sem Manna","Alessandro Stringhi"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102798","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3624d27d2e702ae9","title":"Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies","abstract":"We show that a model of an advanced small open economy with exports in commodities and search and matching frictions in the labour market can match the impulse responses from a panel vector autoregression to an identified commodity price shock. Using a minimum distance strategy, we find that international financial risk sharing is low even for advanced small open economies. Moreover, a strong real exchange rate appreciation is key for an unexpected commodity price increase to induce a tightening of labour market conditions in the model that is in line with the empirical evidence. As in the case of technology shocks discussed by Shimer (2005), proper amplification of the commodity price shock requires a high value of the outside option for unemployed agents. However, vacancies and unemployment hardly respond whenever the real exchange rate channel is mute. These findings suggest the relevance of the open economy dimension for the transmission of demand-type shocks to the labour market more generally.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Martin Bodenstein","Güneş Kamber","Christoph Thoenissen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.09.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3625400b299570ad","title":"Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments","abstract":"External sources of as‐if randomness — that is, external instruments — can be used to identify the dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic shocks. One method is a one‐step instrumental variables regression (local projections – IV); a more efficient two‐step method involves a vector autoregression. We show that, under a restrictive instrument validity condition, the one‐step method is valid even if the vector autoregression is not invertible, so comparing the two estimates provides a test of invertibility. If, however, lagged endogenous variables are needed as control variables in the one‐step method, then the conditions for validity of the two methods are the same.","wordCount":102,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["James H. Stock","Mark W. Watson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12593","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-362cba04d27c0a57","title":"Smoking and mortality: New evidence from a long panel","abstract":"Many public health policies are rooted in findings from medical and epidemiological studies that fail to consider behavioral influences. Using nearly 50 years of data from Framingham Heart Study male participants, we evaluate the longevity consequences of different lifetime smoking patterns by jointly estimating smoking behavior and health outcomes over the life cycle, by richly including smoking and health histories, and by flexibly incorporating correlated unobserved heterogeneity. Unconditional difference-in-mean calculations that treat smoking behaviors as random indicate a 9.3 year difference in age of death between lifelong smokers and nonsmokers; our findings suggest the bias-corrected difference is 4.3 years.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Michael Darden","Donna Gilleskie","Koleman Strumpf"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12314","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-362e2b868c37fbb6","title":"Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure","abstract":"How large are the benefits of transportation infrastructure projects, and what explains these benefits? This paper uses archival data from colonial India to investigate the impact of India's vast railroad network. Guided by four results from a general equilibrium trade model, I find that railroads: (1) decreased trade costs and interregional price gaps; (2) increased interregional and international trade; (3) increased real income levels; and (4) that a sufficient statistic for the effect of railroads on welfare in the model accounts well for the observed reduced-form impact of railroads on real income in the data.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Dave Donaldson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20101199","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-363d55c690335084","title":"The Lion’s Share: Evidence from Federal Contracts on the Value of Political Connections","abstract":"We examine the role of political connections in receiving federal funds during an unexpected surge in government defense spending. While the data do not allow identification of a causal link, the analysis shows that politically connected firms were awarded larger amounts in federal contracts when available funds increased. Defense contracts awarded to firms that lobbied were around onethird higher than contracts awarded to firms that did not lobby. Similar evidence holds for campaign contributions and board connections. The increase in the contract amount is observed primarily for firms with limited ability to efficiently support the Pentagon’s efforts and when contracts received less scrutiny. Between political connections and merit as potential channels to affect government contracting, the results mainly, but not exclusively, support the first channel.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Şenay Ağca","Deniz Igan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/724288","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-36429247219ae630","title":"Killer acquisitions and beyond: Policy effects on innovation strategies","abstract":"This article provides a theory of strategic innovation project choice by incumbents and start‐ups which serves as a foundation for the analysis of acquisition policy. We show that, in spite of countervailing incentives on incumbents and entrants, prohibiting acquisitions has a weakly negative overall innovation effect. We provide conditions determining the size of the effect and conditions under which it is zero. We further analyze the effects of less restrictive policies, including merger remedies and the tax treatment of acquisitions and initial public offerings. Such interventions tend to prevent acquisitions only if the entrant has sufficiently high stand‐alone profits.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Igor Letina","Armin Schmutzler","Regina Seibel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12689","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-364bb836eba4e1d6","title":"Insider Trading and Innovation","abstract":"We assess whether restrictions on insider trading accelerate or slow technological innovation. Using over 80,000 industry-country-year observations across 74 economies from 1976 to 2006, we find that enforcing insider-trading laws spurs innovation—as measured by patent intensity, scope, impact, generality, and originality. Furthermore, the evidence is consistent with the view that restricting insider trading accelerates innovation by improving the valuation of, and increasing the flow of equity financing to, innovative activities.","wordCount":70,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Ross Levine","Chen-Ta Lin","Lai Wei"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696384","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3652c060c46adac6","title":"Can a conditional cash transfer reduce teen fertility? The case of Brazil’s Bolsa Familia","abstract":"In 2008, Brazil's conditional cash transfer program expanded to cover a wider range of ages. Poor families are now given stipends for their children's school attendance up to age seventeen, whereas prior the maximum age was fifteen. Using a nationally representative household survey, we estimate the impact of this policy on teen fertility with a triple difference analysis on the fertility outcomes of treated cohorts vs. non-treated cohorts based on income eligibility, age eligibility, and timing of program implementation. We find a three percentage point drop in fertility among eligible teens within five years of program implementation. This offsets the difference in fertility between poor and non-poor teens. The impact is concentrated in urban areas, with no program effects found in rural areas. We are able to replicate these findings using National Birth Registry Data.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Zachary Olson","Rachel Gardner Clark","Sarah Reynolds"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.10.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-366c1598f2ed1e2b","title":"Information management in times of crisis","abstract":"How does information management and control affect bank stability? Following a national bank holiday in 1933, NY state bank regulators suspended the publication of balance sheets of state-charter banks for two years, whereas the national-charter bank regulator did not. This divergence in policies is used to examine how the suspension of bank-specific information affected depositors and the portfolio of assets held by banks. State-charter banks benefited, experiencing less deposit outflows than national-charter banks in 1933. Further, the behavior of bank deposits across both types of banks converged in 1934 after the introduction of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Haelim Anderson","Adam Copeland"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-366eb1276b035c69","title":"Stochastic Choice and Preferences for Randomization","abstract":"We conduct an experiment in which subjects face the same questions repeated multiple times, with repetitions of two types: (1) following the literature, the repetitions are distant from each other; (2) in a novel treatment, the repetitions are in a row, and subjects are told that the questions will be repeated. We find that a large majority of subjects exhibit stochastic choice in both cases. We discuss the implications for models of stochastic choice.","wordCount":74,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Marina Agranov","Pietro Ortoleva"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689774","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3683ecd6ff639dfc","title":"Shaping societal norms: Experimental evidence on the normative impact of free speech law","abstract":"Do laws shape values? We explore this question by testing a model of law and norms within a legal realm − U.S. obscenity laws − where economic incentives are not the primary drivers of social change. Our randomized experiment had data entry workers transcribe news reports of either progressive or conservative legal decisions. This design allowed us to observe the impact of these laws on attitudes and norms. We found that exposure to progressive legal decisions resulted in the liberalization of sexual attitudes and a shift in norm perceptions, though not in self-reported behavior. These findings underscore the expressive power of law, with significant implications for decision-making in social and political settings, as well as for the empirical predictions of theoretical models within these domains.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Daniel L. Chen","Susan Yeh"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102799","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-368986d587edbca9","title":"Pricing carbon in the aviation sector: Evidence from the European emissions trading system","abstract":"A policy change in the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) provides us with a unique opportunity to measure the impact of carbon pricing on aviation, the most climate-intensive mode of transport. We implement a difference-in-differences strategy on a sample based on all flights within Europe from 2010 to 2016 to examine the causal impact of the EU ETS on emissions and supply. We find that the EU ETS reduced emissions by 4.7% in the regulated routes relative to the counterfactual. When we restrict the sample to short-haul flights, routes on which competition from other means of transport may exist (less than 1,000 km), the reduction in emissions is 10.7%. Finally, the reduction in emissions is also high for low-cost airlines (−11%) but it is not statistically significant for network airlines. In sum, the EU ETS has helped to mitigate emission growth by 3 Mt CO2 per year during the period analyzed, but not to reduce absolute emissions in the sector, as needed.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Xavier Fageda","Jordi Teixidó-Figueras"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102591","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-368a2e99e1eddd2b","title":"Dynamic Evaluation Design","abstract":"A principal owns a firm, hires an agent of uncertain productivity, and designs a dynamic policy for evaluating his performance. The agent observes ongoing evaluations and decides when to quit. When not quitting, the agent is paid a wage that is linear in his expected productivity; the principal claims the residual performance. After quitting, the players secure fixed outside options. I show that equilibrium is Pareto efficient. For a broad class of performance technologies, the equilibrium wage deterministically grows with tenure. My analysis suggests that endogenous performance evaluation plays an important role in shaping careers in organizations.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Alex Smolin"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170405","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-368e77cbbadb345a","title":"How do nonprofits respond to negative wealth shocks? The impact of the 2008 stock market collapse on hospitals","abstract":"The theory of cost shifting posits that nonprofit firms “share the pain” of negative financial shocks with their stakeholders, for example, by raising prices. We examine how nonprofit hospitals responded to the sharp reductions in their assets caused by the 2008 stock market collapse. The average hospital did not raise prices, but hospitals with substantial market power did cost shift in this way. We find no evidence that hospitals reduced treatment costs. Hospitals eliminated but left unchanged their offerings of profitable services. Taken together, our results provide mixed evidence on whether nonprofits behave differently from for‐profits.","wordCount":96,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["David Dranove","Craig Garthwaite","Christopher Ody"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12184","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-368f995b3dca0bd6","title":"Digital finance and financial literacy: Evidence from Chinese households","abstract":"We measure financial literacy and study its impact on household use of digital finance using the 2015 and 2017 China Household Finance Survey. We find that financial literacy significantly boosts the use of digital finance, including mobile payments, online borrowing, and online financial products. This effect is more pronounced for online borrowing and online financial products than for mobile payments. This result suggests that the impact of financial literacy increases with the complexity of digital finance. Furthermore, financial literacy plays a more important role in promoting the use of digital financial services among disadvantaged groups, such as families with low income and wealth, the elderly, and residents in rural areas, compared with their counterparts.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Junhong Yang","Yu Wu","Bihong Huang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107005","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-369f16fa5d4d2fc1","title":"Real Rigidities and Nominal Price Changes","abstract":"Real rigidities can help to generate persistent effects of monetary policy shocks. We analyse an industry equilibrium model with two types of real rigidities: a ‘micro’ real rigidity from a kinked demand curve, and a ‘macro’ real rigidity due to sticky intermediate prices. We estimate key model parameters using micro data from the US CPI, which features big movements in relative prices within and across sectors. The micro real rigidity necessitates large idiosyncratic shocks to productivity. The macro real rigidity does not entail such large idiosyncratic shocks, and is consistent with the volatility of sectoral TFP growth.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Peter J. Klenow","Jonathan L. Willis"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12191","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-36a1295acfa4940b","title":"Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments","abstract":"To study the impact of macroprudential policy on credit supply cycles and real effects, we analyze dynamic provisioning. Introduced in Spain in 2000, revised four times, and tested in its countercyclicality during the crisis, it affected banks differentially. We find that dynamic provisioning smooths credit supply cycles and, in bad times, supports firm performance. A 1 percentage point increase in capital buffers extends credit to firms by 9 percentage points, increasing firm employment (6 percentage points) and survival (1 percentage point). Moreover, there are important compositional effects in credit supply related to risk and regulatory arbitrage by nonregulated and regulated but less affected banks.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Gabriel Jiménez","Steven Ongena","José‐Luis Peydró","Jesús Saurina"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/694289","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-36b082d8008e2fc7","title":"The economics of early warfare over land","abstract":"We investigate the incidence of early warfare among foragers and farmers in prehistory. Our focus is specifically on conflict over land. Food is produced using inputs of labor and land, and the probability of victory in a conflict depends on relative group sizes. The group sizes are determined by individual migration and Malthusian population dynamics. Both factors result in larger populations at better sites, which deters attack. There are two necessary conditions for warfare: high enough individual mobility costs and large enough shocks to the relative productivities of the sites. Together, these conditions are sufficient. In particular, technological or environmental shocks that alter the productivities of sites can trigger warfare, but only if individual agents do not change sites in response. These results are consistent with evidence from archaeology and anthropology.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Gregory K. Dow","Leanna Mitchell","Clyde G. Reed"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.04.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-36b6b2bcb3593261","title":"Is Adaptive Co-management Delivering? Examining Relationships Between Collaboration, Learning and Outcomes in UNESCO Biosphere Reserves","abstract":"This paper examines relationships among perceived processes and outcomes in four UNESCO biosphere reserves (BRs). BRs offer a unique opportunity to examine these relationships because they aim to foster more adaptive and collaborative forms of management, i.e. adaptive co-management (ACM). Accounting for the outcomes of ACM is a difficult task and little progress has been made to this end. However, we show here that ACM efforts in all four BRs had a myriad of positive results as well as ecological and livelihood effects. Process variables of collaboration and learning explained over half (54.6%) of the variability in results and over one third (35.1%) of the variability in effects. While the overall models for outcomes and subsequent process were not significant, the regressions revealed predictive potential for both process variables. Our analysis highlights that a better process is associated with more positive outcomes and that collaboration and learning make unique contributions to outcomes. Opportunities for quantitative techniques to be utilized in understanding the dynamics of ACM are illustrated. Understanding relationships between process and outcomes (and vice versa) provides a sound basis to answer critiques, enhances accountability, and maximizes the potential of positive impacts for ecosystems and humans.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Ryan Plummer","Julia Baird","Angela Dzyundzyak","Derek Armitage","Örjan Bodin","Lisen Schultz"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.04.028","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-36c1aa964e9df258","title":"Does retirement affect voluntary work provision? Evidence from Europe and the U.S.","abstract":"We examine whether retirement has a causal effect on the frequency of voluntary work provision in Europe and the U.S. We draw on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and the Health Retirement Study for the period 2009–2017 and use eligibility ages for old age pensions in an instrumental variable estimation to address endogeneity. We find that retirement increases the frequency of voluntary work provision in all countries.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Peter Eibich","Angelo Lorenti","Irene Mosca"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102185","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-36cd88dfa3a7c9ae","title":"Quantile Treatment Effects in the Presence of Covariates","abstract":"This paper proposes a method to estimate unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) given one or more treatment variables, which may be discrete or continuous, even when it is necessary to condition on covariates. The estimator, generalized quantile regression (GQR), is developed in an instrumental variable framework for generality to permit estimation of unconditional QTEs for endogenous policy variables, but it is also applicable in the conditionally exogenous case. The framework includes simultaneous equations models with nonadditive disturbances, which are functions of both unobserved and observed factors. Quantile regression and instrumental variable quantile regression are special cases of GQR and available in this framework.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["David Powell"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00858","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-36d1d2e2722d6b21","title":"Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quality: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program","abstract":"The demand for air quality depends on health impacts and defensive investments, but little research assesses the empirical importance of defenses. A rich quasi-experiment suggests that the Nitrogen Oxides (NO x ) Budget Program (NBP), a cap-and-trade market, decreased NO x emissions, ambient ozone concentrations, pharmaceutical expenditures, and mortality rates. The annual reductions in pharmaceutical purchases, a key defensive investment, and mortality are valued at about $800 million and $1.3 billion, respectively, suggesting that defenses are over one-third of willingness-to-pay for reductions in NO x emissions. Further, estimates indicate that the NBP's benefits easily exceed its costs and that NO x reductions have substantial benefits.","wordCount":105,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Olivier Deschênes","Michael Greenstone","Joseph Shapiro"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20131002","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-36e1d5f1dd95c8c6","title":"Regional digital finance and corporate investment efficiency in China","abstract":"Digital finance has a substantial effect on macroeconomics and plays an important role in corporate investment behaviour. However, few studies examine how digital finance affects corporate investment efficiency. We use the data of Chinese A-share listed companies for 2011–2017 and the provincial digital finance index developed by Peking University to document that digital finance significantly improves corporate investment efficiency. Our findings are supported by extensive robustness tests. In addition, we identify two mechanisms by which digital finance may affect corporate investment efficiency: by reducing financing constraints and stimulating corporate innovation. We find that digital finance has a more pronounced effect on non-state-owned enterprises, small firms, firms in the central and western regions of China, firms with fewer loans, and firms with a higher dependence on external financing, indicating that digital finance increases the inclusiveness of financial markets. Finally, our economic consequences test shows that digital finance increases the total factor productivity of firms. Overall, this study provides insights for developing countries. In particular, it suggests that digital finance can increase firms’ resource allocation efficiency.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Zhuo Huang","Yunqing Tao","Xin Luo","Yongwei Ye","Tianyi Lei"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2136616","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-36e6a1fc99ca464a","title":"The relevance of investor rights in crowdinvesting","abstract":"A common assumption is that entrepreneurs retain more control of their venture when opting for crowdinvesting rather than venture capital. In this article, we investigate the relevance of cash-flow, control, and exit rights awarded to crowd investors in Germany, where more flexible contracts are offered than in many other jurisdictions. In Germany, many of the rights used in venture capital investment contracts are also prevalent in crowdinvesting contracts. We find that crowd investors are asked to pay higher prices if they receive more cash-flow and exit rights, consistent with the view that these rights are valuable to the crowd. However, we find no evidence that these rights affect campaign outcome, the likelihood of securing follow-on funding, or the insolvency likelihood of the venture. We interpret this as evidence that the redemption rights stipulated in the contract make other types of control rights less relevant or investors' actions are ineffective. Furthermore, crowd investors neither trigger insolvency proceedings nor mention the enforcement of their contractual rights in investor communication blogs or popular media.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Lars Hornuf","Tobias Schilling","Armin Schwienbacher"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101927","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-36f3c124d8a33ff9","title":"Design of public procurement auctions: evidence from cleaning contracts","abstract":"We analyze a regime change from beauty contests to first‐price sealed‐bid and scoring auctions, using Swedish data on public procurement of cleaning services. In beauty contests, the lowest bid often lost, leaving substantial money on the table. The procurement costs were similar before and after the regime change: (i) Entry strongly decreases the procurement cost but did not change. Entry would have decreased had the municipalities not adjusted the objects of auctions. (ii) Municipalities favored in‐house suppliers in the old regime, leading to more aggressive bidding by others. With favoritism reduced, these changes balanced each other out.","wordCount":97,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Ari Hyytinen","Sofia Lundberg","Otto Toivanen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12232","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3710768f7f2089cb","title":"Inequality of opportunity in China: Evidence from pseudo panel data","abstract":"We construct a pseudo panel sample from the China General Social Survey to study the inequality of opportunity in China. The pseudo panel enables us to control for cohort-specific heterogeneities when estimating the Mincer equation, and the results show that individual circumstances play a prominent role in determining income advantage. Counterfactual analysis further reveals the importance of cohort-level circumstances: individual circumstances account for less than 10% of the observed income inequality, whereas equalizing both the individual circumstances and the cohort fixed effects reduces income inequality by 30%. Among the individual circumstances we examine, gender and paternal characteristics contribute more to income inequality than does hukou of birth. Subsample analysis shows that China's western provinces exhibit the highest inequality of opportunity and that the inequality of opportunity among younger cohorts is smaller than that among older cohorts.","wordCount":136,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Xinchen Dai","Jing Li"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101637","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3716d50961d8137b","title":"Social trust distance in mergers and acquisitions","abstract":"We study the role of regional cultural differences in M&A transactions in the U.S. A larger social trust distance between two companies reduces the likelihood of them combining via an M&A transaction and results in lower completion rates and longer completion times, indicating higher complexity in deal execution. However, a larger social trust distance is also associated with higher gains from mergers, as measured by acquirer and combined announcement returns and medium-term buy-and-hold abnormal returns. This suggests that for these announced deals, the synergy potential is high enough to offset the costs induced by the large cultural distance.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Tse‐Chun Lin","Vesa Pursiainen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106759","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3717e84cb6783418","title":"Second-best probability weighting","abstract":"Non-linear probability weighting is an integral part of descriptive theories of choice under risk such as prospect theory. But why do these objective errors in information processing exist? Should we try to help individuals overcome their mistake of overweighting small and underweighting large probabilities? In this paper, we argue that probability weighting can be seen as a compensation for preexisting biases in evaluating payoffs. In particular, inverse S-shaped probability weighting is a flipside of S-shaped payoff valuation. Probability distortions may thus have survived as a second-best solution to a fitness maximization problem, and it can be counter-productive to correct them while keeping the value function unchanged.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Florian Herold","Nick Netzer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.12.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-37189c9fd9832600","title":"Air pollution and entrepreneurship","abstract":"We investigate the effect of exposure to air pollution on entrepreneurship using panel data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. To address endogeneity arising from location choices and omitted variable bias, we employ a two-way fixed effects model with an instrumental variable approach. We find that adults exposed to high levels of air pollution are unlikely to become employer entrepreneurs or have diversified household entrepreneurial activities. Specifically, a one unit increase in air pollution leads to a decrease in the propensity for entrepreneurship by 1.6 percentage points and a decrease in the likelihood of household entrepreneurial diversity by 2.1 percentage points. We find that risk propensity, networking consumption, self-efficacy, and the city's highly educated migrants are the main channels through which air pollution impacts entrepreneurship. Our findings also reveal that air pollution has a more significant negative impact on individuals with lower education levels compared to their more educated counterparts.","wordCount":152,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Liwen Guo","Zhiming Cheng","Massimiliano Tani","Sarah Cook","Jiaqi Zhao","Xi Chen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102327","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-372178ee107c7622","title":"Relational communication","abstract":"We study a communication game between an informed sender and an uninformed receiver with repeated interactions and voluntary transfers. Transfers motivate the receiver's decision‐making and signal the sender's information. Although full separation can always be supported in equilibrium, partial or complete pooling is optimal if the receiver's decision‐making is highly responsive to information. In this case, the receiver's decision‐making is disciplined by pooling states where she is most tempted to defect.","wordCount":71,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Anton Kolotilin","Hongyi Li"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3734","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-3727d47f5afa3e2f","title":"The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy: Comparing euro area and US models with shadow rates","abstract":"This paper assesses and compares the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures in the euro area (EA) and the United States (US) in a unified framework. Using shadow-rate estimates to characterise the overall stance of monetary policy, we estimate a large-scale 3-region (EA, US, RoW) DSGE model with data for 1999q1-2019q4, and we perform counterfactual simulations (no UMP) with the short-term policy rate at the effective lower bound (ELB). We find contributions of UMP to output growth and inflation in the EA and US to have the same orders of magnitude (0.1-0.4 pp p.a. for real GDP growth; 0.2-0.7 pp p.a. for CPI inflation). The counterfactual suggests that EA output and price levels would have been 3.4% and 6.7% below actual levels in 2020q4 in the absence of UMP. The stronger rebound of activity and prices in the US led to US monetary policy normalisation already during 2016-2019.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Stefan Hohberger","Marco Ratto","Lukas Vogel"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106438","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-372aa46f81267347","title":"A Theory of Input-Output Architecture","abstract":"Individual producers exhibit enormous heterogeneity in many dimensions. This paper develops a theory in which the network structure of production—who buys inputs from whom—forms endogenously. Entrepreneurs produce using labor and exactly one intermediate input; the key decision is which other entrepreneur's good to use as an input. Their choices collectively determine the economy's equilibrium input–output structure, generating large differences in size and shaping both individual and aggregate productivity. When the elasticity of output to intermediate inputs in production is high, star suppliers emerge endogenously. This raises aggregate productivity as, in equilibrium, more supply chains are routed through higher‐productivity techniques.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Ezra Oberfield"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","M","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10731","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-37585eca6ba88311","title":"The Value of Reference Letters: Experimental Evidence from South Africa","abstract":"We show that reference letters from former employers alleviate information frictions in a low-skill labor market, improving applicant screening and gender equity. A resume audit study finds that using a reference letter in the application increases callbacks by 60 percent. Women drive the effect. Letters are effective because they provide valuable information about workers’ skills that employers use to select applicants of higher ability. A second experiment, which encourages job seekers to obtain and use a reference letter, finds consistent results. In particular, reference letters raise job interviews and employment for women.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Martin Abel","Rulof Burger","Patrizio Piraino"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180666","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3762fad7a521a0c0","title":"The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US","abstract":"In this study, we investigate the presence of asymmetric interactions between oil prices, oil price uncertainty, interest rates, and unemployment in a cointegration framework. Utilizing the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach, we show the asymmetric responses of unemployment to changes in oil prices, oil price uncertainty and interest rates in the long-run. More specifically, the results of our analyses suggest that an increase in oil price results in increased unemployment while there is no significant impact of reduced oil prices. On the one hand, reduced oil price uncertainty leads to a decrease in unemployment whereas an increase in oil price uncertainty does not have an impact. We also observe increased unemployment in response to a decrease in interest rates as the impact of increased interest rates is not significant. Last but not least, we find that option-implied oil price volatility, as a measure of oil price uncertainty, outperforms the conditional volatility of crude oil prices in predicting unemployment. This study provides valuable implications for policymakers to design sound economic policies.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Barış Kocaarslan","Mehmet Ali Soytaş","Uğur Soytaş"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104625","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3764c1101495896d","title":"Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic","abstract":"Given the role of human behavior in the spread of disease, it is vital to understand what drives people to engage in or refrain from health-related behaviors during a pandemic. This paper examines factors associated with the adoption of self-protective health behaviors, such as social distancing and mask wearing, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA. These behaviors not only reduce an individual's own risk of infection but also limit the spread of disease to others. Despite these dual benefits, universal adoption of these behaviors is not assured. We focus on the role of socioeconomic differences in explaining behavior, relying on data collected in April 2020 during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data include information on income, gender and race along with unique variables relevant to the current pandemic, such as work arrangements and housing quality. We find that higher income is associated with larger changes in self-protective behaviors. These gradients are partially explained by the fact that people with less income are more likely to report circumstances that make adopting self-protective behaviors more difficult, such as an inability to tele-work. Both in the USA and elsewhere, policies that assume universal compliance with self-protective measures-or that otherwise do not account for socioeconomic differences in the costs of doing so-are unlikely to be effective or sustainable.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Nicholas Papageorge","Matthew Zahn","Michèle Bélot","Eline van den Broek‐Altenburg","Syngjoo Choi","Julian Jamison","Egon Tripodi"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"http://hdl.handle.net/10871/123928","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3766163b083f34f0","title":"School Grants and Education Quality: Experimental Evidence from Senegal","abstract":"The effect of increasing school resources on educational outcomes is a central issue in the debate on improving school quality. In this paper we use a randomized experiment to analyse the impact of a school grants programme in Senegal, which allowed schools to apply for funding for pedagogic improvements of their choice. We find positive effects on test scores at lower grades that persist for at least two years. These effects are concentrated among schools that focused funds on human resources improvements rather than school materials, reinforcing that teachers and principals are a central determinant of school quality.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Pedro Carneiro","Oswald Koussihouèdé","Nathalie Lahire","Costas Meghir","Corina Mommaerts"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24166","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-377801a64cde2b5e","title":"Is No News (Perceived As) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure","abstract":"This paper uses laboratory experiments to directly test a central prediction of disclosure theory: that strategic forces can lead those who possess private information to voluntarily provide it. In a simple sender-receiver game, we find that senders disclose favorable information, but withhold unfavorable information. The degree to which senders withhold information is strongly related to their stated beliefs about receiver actions, and their stated beliefs are accurate on average. Receiver actions are also strongly related to their stated beliefs, but their actions and beliefs suggest that many are insufficiently skeptical about nondisclosed information in the absence of repeated feedback.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Ginger Zhe Jin","Michael Luca","Daniel Martin"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180217","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-37783fc998473667","title":"Infant and child mortality by socio‐economic status in early nineteenth‐century England <sup>†</sup>","abstract":"Historical relationships between socio‐economic status and mortality remain poorly understood. This is particularly the case in England, due to a lack of status indicators in available sources especially before c . 1850. This study uses the paternal occupational descriptors routinely recorded in Anglican baptism registers from 1813–37 to compare infant and early childhood mortality by social status. The sample consists of eight of the Cambridge Group family reconstitution parishes, which make it possible to investigate the contributions of environment as well as household characteristics. The main variable of interest was an individual‐level continuous measure of wealth based on ranking paternal occupations by the propensity for their movable wealth to be inventoried upon death. The findings show that wealth conferred no clear survival advantage in infancy, once differences in average mortality levels between parishes were adjusted for. However, wealth was associated with higher survival rates in early childhood, especially in the second year of life, and this pattern persisted after adjustment for parish‐level effects. The striking exception to this pattern was labourers, who were among the poorest of fathers but whose children enjoyed relatively low mortality. Thus socio‐economic differentials in mortality were present in early nineteenth‐century England; however, they were small, age‐specific, and non‐linear.","wordCount":203,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Hannaliis Jaadla","Ellen F. Potter","Sebastian Keibek","Romola Davenport"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12971","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-377e35de5637e35f","title":"What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data","abstract":"An economic downturn coincided with the start of the epidemic but the recession was short and moderate, compared with that of 1920/21. Cross-sectional high-frequency data indicate that the epidemic affected the labor supply sharply but briefly with no ensuing spill-overs; most of the recession, brief as it was, was due to the end of the war. I analyze weekly city-level mortality data and economic indicators with time series methods and structural estimation of an economic-epidemiological model: interventions to hinder the contagion reduced mortality at little economic cost, probably because reduced infections mitigated the impact on the labor force.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["François R. Velde"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-377eb68f53907e7d","title":"Misinformation, consumer risk perceptions, and markets: The impact of an information shock on vaping and smoking cessation","abstract":"We study the impact of an information shock created by an outbreak of lung injuries apparently related to e‐cigarettes. We use data from multiple sources: surveys of risk perceptions conducted before, during, and after the outbreak; an in‐depth survey on risk perceptions and vaping and smoking behavior; and national aggregate time‐series sales data. We find that after the outbreak, consumer perceptions of the riskiness of e‐cigarettes sharply increased. From our estimated e‐cigarette demand models, we conclude that the information shock reduced e‐cigarette demand and the use of e‐cigarettes for smoking cessation by about 30 percent.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Lawrence Jin","Don Kenkel","Michael Lovenheim","Alan Mathios","Hua Wang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13238","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-378b3105e17d019d","title":"Public good provision by large groups – the logic of collective action revisited","abstract":"The organization of collective action is extremely important for societies. A main reason is that many of the key problems societies face are public good problems. We present results from a series of laboratory experiments with large groups of up to 100 subjects. Our results demonstrate that large groups, in which the impact of an individual contribution (MPCR) is almost negligible, are able to provide a public good in the same way as small groups in which the impact of an individual contribution is much higher. Nevertheless, we find that small variations in MPCR in large groups have a strong effect on contributions. We develop a hypothesis concerning the interplay between MPCR and group size, which is based on the assumption that the salience of the advantages of mutual cooperation plays a decisive role. This hypothesis is successfully tested in a second series of experiments. Since Mancur Olson's “Logic of collective action” it is a commonly held belief that in large groups the prospects of a successful organization of collective actions are rather bad. Our results, however, suggest that the chance to successfully organize collective action of large groups and to solve important public good problems is much higher than previously thought.","wordCount":202,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Joachim Weimann","Jeannette Brosig‐Koch","Timo Heinrich","Heike Hennig‐Schmidt","Claudia Keser"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.05.019","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-378ba4380b194eaf","title":"European Goods Market Integration in the Very Long Run: From the Black Death to the First World War","abstract":"This paper examines price convergence and changes in the efficiency of wheat markets, covering the period from the mid-fourteenth to the early twentieth century and most of Europe. The analysis is based on a new data set of prices from almost 600 markets. Unlike previous research, we find that convergence was a predominantly pre-modern phenomenon. It started in the late fifteenth century, advanced rapidly until the beginning of the seventeenth century when it temporarily stalled, resumed after the Thirty Years’ War, and accelerated after the Napoleonic Wars in response to trade liberalization. From the late 1840s, convergence petered out and turned into divergence after 1875 as policy decisions dominated technological change. Our results point to the ‘Little Divergence’ between North-Western Europe and the rest of the continent as starting about 1600. Long-term improvements in market efficiency began in the early sixteenth century, with advances over time being as uneven as in price convergence. We trace this to differential institutional change and the non-synchronous spread of modern media and systems of information transmission that affected the ability of merchants to react to news.","wordCount":182,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Giovanni Federico","Max-Stephan Schulze","Oliver Volckart"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000637","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-378cabe6ae13b3c4","title":"Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism","abstract":"Using household survey data for the U.S. and the U.K., we show that the aggregate response of consumption to interest rate changes is driven by households with a mortgage. Outright home-owners do not adjust expenditure at all while renters change their spending but by less than mortgagors. Income rises for all households as interest rate cuts directly affect firm investment and household consumption, boosting aggregate demand. A crucial difference between the housing tenure groups is the composition of their balance sheets: mortgagors hold sizable illiquid assets but little liquid wealth. Our results reveal that general equilibrium effects on household income coupled with balance-sheet-driven heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["James Cloyne","Clodomiro Ferreira","Paolo Surico"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy074","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3797069df0017994","title":"Roads and Innovation","abstract":"We exploit historical data on planned highways, railroads, and exploration routes as sources of exogenous variation in order to estimate the effect of interstate highways on regional innovation: a 10% increase in a region's stock of highways causes a 1.7% increase in regional patenting over a five-year period. In terms of the mechanism, we report evidence that roads facilitate local knowledge flows, increasing the likelihood that innovators access knowledge inputs from local but more distant neighbors. Thus, transportation infrastructure may spur regional growth above and beyond the more commonly discussed agglomeration economies predicated on an inflow of new workers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Ajay Agrawal","Alberto Galasso","Alexander Oettl"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00619","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3798670f9694689d","title":"Dynamic merger policy and pre-merger product choice by an entrant","abstract":"We examine the effects of merger and merger policy on a potential entrant's pre-merger product choice. We establish conditions under which the possibility of merger can induce an entrant to imitate an incumbent's product instead of innovating with a more differentiated product. Turning to policy, current practice is to evaluate a proposed merger by focusing on post-merger effects (e.g., whether the merged firm will charge higher prices or invest less in innovation than would the two firms if they remained independent of one another). We show that policies focused solely on a proposed merger's ex post welfare effects can induce an entrant to choose an inefficient direction for its pre-merger investment decisions. We also show that, taking into account merger policy's effects on pre-merger product choice, it can be optimal to approve mergers with a positive probability even when the post-merger welfare effects of every consummated merger are negative.","wordCount":149,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Richard J. Gilbert","Michael L. Katz"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102812","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-37a09b2bb0d4a583","title":"Ethnic wealth inequality in England and Wales, 1858–2018","abstract":"Using surnames from the universe of death and wealth-at-death records in England and Wales, from 1858 to 2018, I document the emergence of a modern ethnic wealth gradient. Historically, Non-British ethnicities have average wealth 2–5 times that of the English. However, this premium has decreased over the 20th century. By 1980, non-British ethnicities have no advantage over the British. However, this masks considerable heterogeneity within the non-British ethnicity group. Europeans typically die significantly richer than the English whereas the Pakistani and Swedish die significantly poorer. Some groups always have lower wealth. The Irish, have wealth around 50% of the average English throughout. Surprisingly, the most egalitarian measure of wealth is representation within the top 1%. Most ethnicities have an equal, or greater, representation in the top 1% than the English, 1980–1992. Despite large differences in average wealth between ethnicities, the vast majority of variation, 97.5% is between individuals.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Neil Cummins"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101617","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-37ad8f7aeb9f0964","title":"Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme","abstract":"This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID-19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a significant causal impact on new cases, accelerating the subsequent second COVID-19 wave. The scheme subsidised 50% off the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks for an unlimited number of visits in participating restaurants on Mondays–Wednesdays from 3–31 August 2020. Areas with higher take-up saw both a notable increase in new COVID-19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting and a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Similarly, areas that exhibited notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on the days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence—a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data—and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours.","wordCount":157,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Thiemo Fetzer"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab074","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-37aecee84f630528","title":"The effects of monthly minimum wages on the labor market","abstract":"We explore the labor market impact of monthly minimum wages utilizing a model suitable for countries adopting monthly, weekly, or daily wage benchmarks. Our findings indicate that, in the absence of overtime regulations, an increase in monthly minimum wages will increase working hours and hourly wages and increase (or decrease) employment when the firm has high (or low) monopsony power. When incorporating overtime alongside its associated compensation, the implications of monthly minimum wages become contingent on the prevailing overtime premiums. We validate these assertions using microdata from China.","wordCount":88,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Zhengxiong Yang","Mingwei Liu","Shiwei Zhang","Chenxi Yin"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102310","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-37b70d6533e29033","title":"Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata","abstract":"Recent research has pointed to large gaps in labor productivity between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in low-income countries, as well as between workers in rural and urban areas. Most estimates are based on national accounts or repeated cross-sections of microsurvey data, and as a result typically struggle to account for individual selection between sectors. This paper uses long-run individual-level panel data from two low-income countries (Indonesia and Kenya) to explore these gaps. Accounting for individual fixed effects leads to much smaller estimated productivity gains from moving into the non-agricultural sector (or urban areas), reducing estimated gaps by roughly 67%-92%. Furthermore, gaps do not emerge up to 5 years after a move between sectors. We evaluate whether these findings imply a re-assessment of the conventional wisdom regarding sectoral gaps, discuss how to reconcile them with existing cross-sectional estimates, and consider implications for the desirability of sectoral reallocation of labor.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Joan Hamory","Marieke Kleemans","Nicholas Y. Li","Edward Miguel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa043","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-37ba4072d2db0227","title":"Can ICTs increase tax compliance? Evidence on taxpayer responses to technological innovation in Ethiopia","abstract":"The widespread introduction of ICTs and digitised data management systems is one of the most important developments amongst African tax administrations in recent years. However, very little evidence is available on their effectiveness to increase compliance and on how taxpayers respond to these changes. This paper starts filling this gap by reporting three sets of results from Ethiopia. First, we evaluate the impact of a technological innovation, the adoption of electronic sales registration machines, on taxpayers’ self reports. We find a positive impact on tax revenue, which increases by at least 12% for income taxes and 48% for VAT. However, taxpayers respond by simultaneously adjusting both reported sales and costs, thus yielding net revenue gains that are proportionally lower than the increase in sales. Second, we use a letter experiment to show that the main mechanism through which the machines increase tax revenue is compliance, rather than any change in real business activity. Third, we document how the revenue administration does not make use of available data to its full potential, as many discrepancies remain undetected. However, machine adoption improves the accuracy of those taxpayer records, reducing dicrepancies.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Giulia Mascagni","Andualem Mengistu","Firew Bekele Woldeyes"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.06.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-37c0893e330fe29a","title":"Undoing Gender with Institutions: Lessons from the German Division and Reunification","abstract":"Using the 41-year division of Germany as a natural experiment, we show that the German Democratic Republic’s gender-equal institutions created a culture that has undone the male breadwinner norm and its consequences. Since reunification, East Germany still differs from West Germany not only because of its higher female contribution to household income, but also because East German women can earn more than their husbands without having to increase their number of housework hours, put their marriage at risk or withdraw from the labour market. By contrast, the norm of higher male income, and its consequences, are still prevalent in West Germany.","wordCount":101,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Quentin Lippmann","Alexandre Georgieff","Claudia Sénik"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez057","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-37c90a1309005f30","title":"Revisiting the relation between financial inclusion and economic growth: a global analysis using panel threshold regression","abstract":"We re-examine the finance-growth nexus for a range of the subcategory of countries. Financial inclusion (FI) has impacted positively economic growth across all panels. The impact of FI is greater for advanced countries. The effects of FI on growth are higher for non-fragile compared with fragile economies. Financial development increases the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth.","wordCount":58,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Jalal U. Siddiki","Ladi R. Bala-Keffi"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106707","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-37e76a56e777c929","title":"The (South) American Dream: Mobility and Economic Outcomes of First- and Second-Generation Immigrants in Nineteenth-Century Argentina","abstract":"I study the mobility and economic outcomes of European immigrants and their children in nineteenth-century Argentina, the second largest destination country during the Age of Mass Migration. I use new data linking males across censuses and passenger lists of arrivals to Buenos Aires. First-generation immigrants experienced faster occupational upgrading than natives. Occupational mobility was substantial relative to Europe; immigrants holding unskilled occupations upon arrival experienced high rates of occupational upgrading. Second-generation immigrants outperformed the sons of natives in terms of literacy, occupational status and access to property, and experienced higher rates of intergenerational mobility out of unskilled occupations.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Santiago Pérez"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000808","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-37ebebdc4b6d07a0","title":"Regional market integration in East Africa: Local but no regional effects?","abstract":"We investigate the spatial impact of the establishment of a regional economic community between Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda in 2001. Measuring economic activity using satellite imagery of lights emanating from Earth at night, we demonstrate that cities near the community's internal borders expanded more than cities further away. The growth effect is temporary and highly localized: only cities less than 90 min of travel from the border experienced an acceleration in growth rates; after four years growth rates revert to their pre-treatment level. We show that this is consistent with an asymmetric reduction in trade costs for two types of trade modalities that co-exist in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, local small-scale trade and regional large-scale trade, with a larger reduction in costs of the former. Yet, while local effects are relatively large, equivalent to a 5% higher GDP for cities near the EAC's internal borders, region-wide effects are non-significant.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Andreas Eberhard-Ruiz","Alexander Moradi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.06.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-37ebfe20b732b1a8","title":"Austerity and the Rise of the Nazi Party","abstract":"We study the link between fiscal austerity and Nazi electoral success. Voting data from a thousand districts and a hundred cities for four elections between 1930 and 1933 show that areas more affected by austerity (spending cuts and tax increases) had relatively higher vote shares for the Nazi Party. We also find that the localities with relatively high austerity experienced relatively high suffering (measured by mortality rates) and these areas’ electorates were more likely to vote for the Nazi Party. Our findings are robust to a range of specifications including an instrumental variable strategy and a border-pair policy discontinuity design.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Gregori Galofré‐Vilà","Christopher M. Meissner","Martin McKee","David Stückler"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","N","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000601","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-37f4f02323c23a32","title":"Board gender diversity reform and corporate carbon emissions","abstract":"We examine the impact of the increased presence of female board members on corporate carbon emissions. Using the staggered enactment of gender diversity reforms in different countries, we find that an increase in the number of female directors after the reforms leads to a reduction in corporate carbon emissions. This effect is particularly more pronounced when the reform is legislative, and occurs in collectivistic countries. Furthermore, the effect of enhanced female board representation on carbon emission reduction is greater following the Paris Agreement. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers who consider gender diversity reform as a strategy against climate change.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Raúl Barroso","Tinghua Duan","Siyue Guo","Oskar Kowalewski"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102616","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-37fa471c819d43aa","title":"What goes around comes around: Export-enhancing effects of import-tariff reductions","abstract":"In international trade, transportation requires a round trip for which a transport firm has to commit to shipping capacity that is sufficient to meet the maximum shipping volume. This may cause the “backhaul problem.” Trade theory suggests that, facing the problem, transport firms with market power adjust their freight rates strategically when import tariffs change. As a consequence, a country reducing its import tariffs may experience an increase in exports as well as imports. Using worldwide data covering 1995–2007, we find evidence that supports these predictions: a 1% reduction in an importer's tariffs increases the import freight rates by around 0.8%; decreases the export freight rates by around 1.1%; and increases the export quantity by 0.6% to 1%. These findings indicate a new mechanism through which import-tariff reductions lead to export expansions.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Kazunobu Hayakawa","Jota Ishikawa","Nori Tarui"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103362","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-37fd944dfdb84d8a","title":"The short- and long-run effects of remote work on U.S. housing markets","abstract":"Remote work has increased the demand for housing and changed the demand for the location of that housing. Because housing supply is heterogeneous across space and more elastic in the long-run, the effects on rents and populations may differ over time. We use the lens of a spatial housing model with heterogeneous housing supply elasticities to identify the housing and location demand changes from 2020–2022, and show that the same shocks will have different effects in the long run. Even though rents and prices increased significantly in the short-run, we estimate that in the long-run, increased housing demand will increase rents by only 1.8 percentage points, and that changing location demand will decrease rents by 0.3 percentage points, with a more negative impact on cities in which CPI is measured and cities that were initially expensive.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Greg Howard","Jack Liebersohn","Adam Ozimek"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103705","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-38039b3bc90d01d9","title":"Political Conflict and Development Dynamics: Economic Legacies of the Cultural Revolution","abstract":"As a multi-faceted socio-political movement in twentieth-century China, the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) witnessed conflict and social upheaval. This paper investigates its economic legacies, exploiting geographic variation in revolutionary intensity, measured by the number of resulting deaths. Using a newly assembled county-level panel dataset over five decades, we find worse-affected areas performed slightly better at baseline, but were slower to industrialize. This effect was large in the early 1980s before diminishing to become insignificant by 2000. Using individual-level census data, we find more-exposed cohorts are less likely to obtain higher education degrees and to work in professional and entrepreneurial occupations.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Liang Bai","Lingwei Wu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","P","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050723000384","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3805d80b00938d66","title":"Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area","abstract":"Identifying the components of yields is a challenging task for monetary authorities. We use a term structure model with stochastic volatility and eurozone global macro factors to estimate time-varying term premia and short rate expectations for ten countries in the euro area. Unlike previous studies, we explicitly disentangle from these components the convexity effects that have substantial impact on long-term yields in turbulent times. The empirical evidence shows that term premia are significantly positively related to yield volatility across all countries, while term premia and expected short rates react in opposite directions to shocks in eurozone inflation and GDP growth expectations. A connectedness analysis based on variance decomposition suggests that there exist significant cross-country interconnections for the yield components, with the size of the links varying substantially over time and across countries.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Andrea Berardi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101424","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-381a7d7cc1c2a929","title":"Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence","abstract":"Persecution, pogroms, and genocide have plagued humanity for centuries, costing millions of lives and haunting survivors. Economists and economic historians have recently made new contributions to the understanding of these phenomena. We provide a novel conceptual framework which highlights the inter-relationship between the intensity of persecution and migration patterns across dozens of historical episodes. Using this framework as a lens, we survey the growing literature on the causes and consequences of persecution, pogroms, and genocide. Finally, we discuss gaps in the literature and take several tentative steps towards explaining the differences in survival rates of European Jews in the 20th century.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Sascha O. Becker","Sharun Mukand","Ivan Yotzov"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101471","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-38221efd9194df20","title":"The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing","abstract":"Hotter years are associated with lower economic output in developing countries. We show that the effect of temperature on labor is an important part of the explanation. Using microdata from selected firms in India, we estimate reduced worker productivity and increased absenteeism on hot days. Climate control significantly mitigates productivity losses. In a national panel of Indian factories, annual plant output falls by about 2% per degree Celsius. This response appears to be driven by a reduction in the output elasticity of labor. Our estimates are large enough to explain previously observed output losses in cross-country panels.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["E. Somanathan","Rohini Somanathan","Anant Sudarshan","Meenu Tewari"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713733","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-382427f1345f7d45","title":"Conditional cooperation and betrayal aversion","abstract":"We investigate whether there is an association between conditional cooperation and betrayal aversion, two phenomena that we conjecture share common psychological characteristics despite having been studied largely separately in the previous literature. We use a public goods game to categorize subjects by type of contribution preference and we measure betrayal aversion for different categories of subject. We report three studies, using two different methods to measure betrayal aversion: a standard elicitation with monetary incentives and a novel scenario-based measure that we argue addresses concerns about the standard measure. We find strong and robust evidence of an association between conditional cooperation and betrayal aversion in the scenario-based measures but not in the standard measure.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Robin Cubitt","Simon Gächter","Simone Quercia"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.06.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3825f4ebab3cc932","title":"Stable matching under forward‐induction reasoning","abstract":"A standing question in the theory of matching markets is how to define stability under incomplete information. This paper proposes an epistemic approach. Agents negotiate through offers, and offers are interpreted according to the highest possible degree of rationality that can be ascribed to their proponents. A matching is deemed “stable” if maintaining the current allocation is a rationalizable action for each agent. The main result shows an equivalence between this notion and “incomplete‐information stability,” a cooperative solution concept put forward by Liu, Mailath, Postlewaite, and Samuelson (2014) for markets with incomplete information.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Luciano Pomatto"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3867","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-3831213259a90013","title":"Peer Quality and the Academic Benefits to Attending Better Schools","abstract":"Despite strong demand for attending high schools with better peers, there is mixed evidence on whether doing so improves academic outcomes. We estimate the cognitive returns to high school quality by comparing the college entrance exam scores of students in China who were barely above and below high school admission thresholds. Results indicate that while peer quality improves significantly across all sets of admission cutoffs, the only increase in performance occurs from attending tier 1 high schools. Further evidence suggests the returns to high school quality are driven by teacher quality rather than peer quality or class size.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Mark Hoekstra","Pierre Mouganie","Yaojin Wang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/697465","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3836aad3edcbfdc3","title":"Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844","abstract":"From its foundation as a private corporation in 1694, the Bank of England extended large amounts of credit to support the British private economy and to support an increasingly centralised British state. The Bank helped the British state reach a position of geopolitical and economic hegemony in the international economic order. In this paper, we deploy recalibrated financial data to analyse an evolving trajectory of connections between the British economy, the state, and the Bank of England. We show how these connections contributed to form an effective and efficient fiscal–naval state and promote the development of a system of financial intermediation for the economy. This symbiotic relationship became stronger after 1793. The evidence that we consider here shows that although the Bank was nominally a private institution and profits were paid to its shareholders, it was playing a public role well before Bagehot's doctrine.","wordCount":144,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Patrick Karl O’Brien","Nuno Palma"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13191","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3841385e722d33d1","title":"Effects of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms: Insights from a DSGE model","abstract":"Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 includes the creation of a value-added tax (VAT), the enactment of domestic energy price reforms, and the deployment of renewable energy. We assess these policy measures’ effects on macroeconomic variables using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Saudi economy. We find that energy price reforms deliver long-run welfare gains that are more than 20% of current consumption, the greatest among the three measures. Introducing a VAT generates welfare gains of up to 4.3% of current consumption. The welfare effects of renewable energy deployment are sensitive to the selected financing scheme. If financing for renewables comes from a reduction in government consumption or transfers to households, no welfare gains are realized. Jointly implementing all three policies increases real gross domestic product (GDP) by 5%, reduces real non-oil GDP by up to 1.8%, and increases welfare by 23.5%–32.4%.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Jorge Blázquez","Marzio Galeotti","Baltasar Manzano","Axel Pierru","Shreekar Pradhan"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.12.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3848fd1ae69dce15","title":"Gender equality and sustainable development: A cross-country study on women's contribution to the adoption of the climate-smart agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"Women face severe gender-specific constraints and have minimal part in the farm decision-making systems in sub-Saharan Africa. This leads to additional barriers in the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. This paper contributes to the gender debate by focusing on intra-household gender dynamics that influence the adaptive capacities of small-holder farmers. Using a multi-country approach, and considering Ethiopia, Malawi, South Africa , and Tanzania as case studies , an endogenous-switching poisson regression model was conducted to (i) assess factors influencing the probability of women's engagement in agricultural technology decision-making; (ii) ascertain the effect of women's participation in farm decision-making on climate-smart agriculture adoption. The findings indicate a degree of complexity in women's roles within their communities and family contexts. While in Malawi women participating in the farm decision-making process positively affects CSA adoption, in the other countries their role remains marginal or negatively related with farm sustainability . Such women's empowerment is indeed influenced by the existence of social, regulatory, and cultural elements that uniquely define the considered countries. Context-specific policies that prioritize rural-women, youths, and other marginalized groups can enhance CSA adoption and thereby contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals such as gender equality, climate action and zero hunger in developing contexts.","wordCount":203,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Chiara Perelli","Luca Cacchiarelli","Valentina Peveri","Giacomo Branca"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108145","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3855a64567ee3bb2","title":"Capital Commitment and Illiquidity in Corporate Bonds","abstract":"We study trading costs and dealer behavior in U.S. corporate bond markets from 2006 to 2016. Despite a temporary spike during the financial crisis, average trade execution costs have not increased notably over time. However, dealer capital commitment, turnover, block trade frequency, and average trade size decreased during the financial crisis and thereafter. These declines are attributable to bank‐affiliated dealers, as nonbank dealers have increased their market commitment. Our evidence indicates that liquidity provision in the corporate bond markets is evolving away from the commitment of bank‐affiliated dealer capital to absorb customer imbalances, and that postcrisis banking regulations likely contribute.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Hendrik Bessembinder","Stacey E. Jacobsen","William F. Maxwell","Kumar Venkataraman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12694","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3870d7d14beb6ee1","title":"Rational altruism? On preference estimation and dictator game experiments","abstract":"Experimental implementations of dictator games are found to differ in terms of their underlying strategic incentives. We explore this discovery in two separate directions. Theoretically, assuming identical other-regarding preferences, we show that the two most widely used protocols can generate strongly contrasting rational-choice predictions, from which different interpretations of dictator giving arise. Experimentally, a tailor-made experiment reveals significant differences between the two protocols but rejects full rationality as a satisfactory explanatory theory. Our findings indicate that several previously drawn conclusions regarding other-regarding preferences among humans distinguished by social class, gender, generation, nationality, etc. may be more ambiguous than hitherto believed.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Philip Grech","Heinrich H. Nax"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.10.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3876b3024963f9d8","title":"Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework","abstract":"We develop a new quantile-based panel data framework to study the nature of income persistence and the transmission of income shocks to consumption. Log-earnings are the sum of a general Markovian persistent component and a transitory innovation. The persistence of past shocks to earnings is allowed to vary according to the size and sign of the current shock. Consumption is modeled as an age-dependent nonlinear function of assets and the two earnings components. We establish the nonparametric identification of the nonlinear earnings process and the consumption policy rule. Exploiting the enhanced consumption and asset data in recent waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find nonlinear persistence and conditional skewness to be key features of the earnings process. We show that the impact of earnings shocks varies substantially across earnings histories, and that this nonlinearity drives heterogeneous consumption responses. The transmission of shocks is found to vary systematically with assets.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Manuel Arellano","Richard Blundell","Stéphane Bonhomme"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13795","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-387d3b530845b46f","title":"Refugees welcome? Understanding the regional heterogeneity of anti-refugee hate crime","abstract":"In this article, we examine anti-refugee hate crime in the wake of the large influx of refugees to Germany in 2014 and 2015. By exploiting institutional features of the assignment of refugees to German regions, we estimate the impact of unexpected and sudden large-scale immigration on hate crime against refugees. Results indicate that it is not simply the size of local refugee inflows which drives the increase in hate crime, but rather the combination of refugee arrivals and latent anti-refugee sentiment. We show that ethnically homogeneous areas, areas which experienced hate crimes in the 1990s, and areas with high support for the Nazi party in the Weimar Republic, are more prone to respond to the arrival of refugees with incidents of hate crime against this group. Our results highlight the importance of regional anti-immigration sentiment in the analysis of the incumbent population’s reaction to immigration.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Horst Entorf","Martin Lange"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103913","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-388a7628dd8d54bc","title":"The value of growth: Changes in profitability and future stock returns","abstract":"We use a simple two-stage dividend growth model to connect profitability growth and firm scale to stock returns. In this framework, both the magnitude and the length of the first-stage growth play a key role in determining returns. Using current profitability growth to estimate magnitude and firm scale as inverse proxy for length, we predict that future returns should increase with current profitability growth but, crucially, the effect should diminish with firm scale. Across a range of empirical tests, we find strong evidence in support of our model determinants and predictions. Our findings are not explained by an array of associated, potentially confounding variables.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Bryan Lim","Juan M. Sotes-Paladino","George Jiaguo Wang","Yaqiong Yao"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107036","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3893db44d089d11d","title":"Institutions and the Location of Oil Exploration","abstract":"We provide evidence that institutions have a strong influence over where oil and gas exploration takes place. We utilise a global data set on the location of exploration wells and national borders. This allows for a regression discontinuity design with the identifying assumption that the position of borders was determined independently of geology. In order to break potential simultaneity between borders, institutions, and activities in the oil sector, we focus on drilling that occurred after the formation of borders and institutions. Our sample covers 88 countries over the 1966–2010 period. At borders, we estimate more than twice as much drilling on the side with better institutional quality. Subsample analyses reveal effects of institutions on exploration drilling in both developing and high income countries, as well as across three types of operating companies. We find that the supermajor international oil companies are particularly sensitive to institutional quality in developing countries. Our findings are consistent with the view that institutions shape both exploration companies’ incentives to invest in drilling and host countries’ supply of drilling opportunities.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["James Cust","Torfinn Harding"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz028","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-38a6edde88f63fb3","title":"Discretion and Favoritism in Public Procurement","abstract":"This paper investigates the consequences of bureaucratic discretion in public procurement. I exploit a Hungarian policy reform, which allows a “high-discretion” procedure below a certain contract value. At the threshold, I document large discontinuities both in procurement outcomes and in the density of contract values, which indicates that buyers manipulate contract values to avoid auctions. I combine the reform and a structural model to find that discretion increases prices and results in the selection of less productive contractors. I also show that high discretion benefits firms with connections to the party of the central government. I use the structural model to document that public buyers are willing to sacrifice more contract value to increase their discretion if more connected firms are operating in the market. I also use the model to simulate the effects of counterfactual procurement thresholds on different procurement outcomes.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Ferenc Szücs"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-38a79a3a579df46d","title":"Deep equilibrium nets","abstract":"We introduce deep equilibrium nets (DEQNs)—a deep learning‐based method to compute approximate functional rational expectations equilibria of economic models featuring a significant amount of heterogeneity, uncertainty, and occasionally binding constraints. DEQNs are neural networks trained in an unsupervised fashion to satisfy all equilibrium conditions along simulated paths of the economy. Since DEQNs approximate the equilibrium functions directly, simulating the economy is computationally cheap, and training data can be generated at virtually zero cost. We demonstrate that DEQNs can accurately solve economically relevant models by applying them to two challenging life‐cycle models and a Bewley‐style model with aggregate risk.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Marlon Azinovic","Luca Gaegauf","Simon Scheidegger"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12575","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-38bedcd93f46537b","title":"The macroeconomics of shadow banking","abstract":"We propose a simple short-run Post-Keynesian model in which the key aspects of shadow banking, namely securitization and the production of structured finance instruments, are explicitly formalized. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to broaden purely real-side Post-Keynesian models and their traditional focus on shareholder-value orientation, the financialization of non-financial firms, and the profit-led vs. wage-led dichotomy. We rather put emphasis on the role of financial institutions and rentier-friendly environment in determining the predominance of specific growth and distribution regimes. First, we illustrate the macroeconomic rationale of shadow banking practices. We show how, before the 2007–08 crisis, securitization and shadow banking allowed for an increase in profitability for the whole financial sector, while apparently keeping leverage under control. Second, we define a variety of shadow-banking-led regimes in terms of economic activity, productive capital accumulation, and income distribution.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Alberto Botta","Eugenio Caverzasi","Daniele Tori"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051800041x","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-38d0267ca4c779d1","title":"Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence and Theory","abstract":"Relative price dispersion refers to persistent differences in the price that different retailers set for one particular good relative to the price they set for other goods. Relative price dispersion accounts for 30 percent of the overall variance of prices at which the same good is sold during the same week and in the same market. Relative price dispersion can be rationalized as the consequence of a pricing strategy used by sellers to discriminate between high-valuation buyers who need to make all of their purchases in one store, and low-valuation buyers who are able to purchase different items in different stores.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Greg Kaplan","Guido Menzio","Leena Rudanko","Nicholas Trachter"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170126","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-38f03b1fc67ccd1f","title":"Online health information seeking behavior, healthcare access, and health status during exceptional times","abstract":"Online health information seeking behavior (e-HISB) is becoming increasingly common and the trend has accelerated as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic when individuals strongly relied upon the Internet to stay informed by becoming exposed to a wider array of health information. Despite e-HISB having become a global trend, very few empirical investigations have analyzed its potential influence on healthcare access and individuals' health status. In this paper, we try to fill this gap. We use data from the second SHARE Corona Survey, supplemented with data from the previous 8th wave of SHARE, and estimate a recursive model of e-HISB, healthcare access, and individuals' health status that accounts for individuals' unobserved heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that e-HISB can empower individuals to better understand health concerns, facilitating improved health condition management. However, e-HISB can also trigger a chain reaction, as navigating vast amonts of online health information can heighten fear and anxiety. This increased anxiety may lead to higher utilization of medical services, adversely affecting individuals' perceptions of their health.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Cinzia Di Novi","Matija Kovačić","Cristina Elisa Orso"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.02.032","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-38f20a896c65adb6","title":"The price of populism: Financial market outcomes of populist electoral success","abstract":"Following financial research on the importance of public policy for asset prices, we hypothesize that the success of populist movements impacts risk assessments in financial markets. Building a novel dataset, findings show for a sample of Western democracies that the success of populist parties has a direct impact on volatility in major domestic market indexes, measured from option prices spanning national elections. Despite its anti-capitalist rhetoric, the political insecurity generated by populist movements on the far left only partially translates into financial insecurity in the context of institutionalized democracies. In turn, we find the electoral success of right-wing populists to reduce risk assessments, which could be driven by its frequent association with rent-seeking and big business.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Sebastian Stöckl","Martin Rode"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.06.037","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-38f9cef5ce31cad0","title":"Buy or make? Agricultural production diversity, markets and dietary diversity in Afghanistan","abstract":"Increasing on-farm production diversity and improving markets are recognized as ways to improve the dietary diversity of smallholders. Using instrumental variable methods to account for endogeneity, we study the interplay of production diversity, markets and diets in the context of seasonality in Afghanistan. We confirm an important seasonal dimension to the interplay. Improved crop diversity over the year is positively associated with dietary diversity in the regular season, but not in the lean season. Livestock species diversity remains important for dietary diversity throughout the year, but particularly so in the lean season when the influence of cropping diversity is low. Market aspects become important for dietary diversity specifically in the lean season.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Giacomo Zanello","Bhavani Shankar","Nigel Poole"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101731","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-38fdc9028731d252","title":"Behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint","abstract":"A recent article by Akira Takayama discusses an earlier paper by Harvey Averch and Leland L. Johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities. Although Takayama (p. 255) agrees with Averch and Johnson's general conclusions a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return, he criticizes the argument as being confusing, ambiguous, and in error. Takayama then attempts a clarification, and presents a new formulation which leads to the result quoted above. This comment will discuss several of Takayama's criticisms in addition to showing that the so-called A-J cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both Averch and Johnson and Takayama.1 We will show that the very assumptions used to prove the Effect, by defining the region of X, require an assumption that the Effect exists in the first place.","wordCount":145,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Harvey A. Averch","Leland L. Johnson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/1815216.pdf","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39097e34be11f95d","title":"To diversify or not to diversify, that is the question. Pursuing agricultural development for smallholder farmers in marginal areas of Ghana","abstract":"Many smallholder farmers in developing countries grow multiple crop species on their farms, maintaining de facto crop diversity. Rarely do agricultural development strategies consider this crop diversity as an entry point for fostering agricultural innovation. This paper presents a case study, from an agricultural research-for-development project in northern Ghana, which examines the relationship between crop diversity and self-consumption of food crops, and cash income from crops sold by smallholder farmers in the target areas. By testing the presence and direction of these relationships, it is possible to assess whether smallholder farmers may benefit more from a diversification or a specialization agricultural development strategy for improving their livelihoods. Based on a household survey of 637 randomly selected households, we calculated crop diversity as well as its contribution to self-consumption (measured as imputed monetary value) and to cash income for each household. With these data we estimated a system of three simultaneous equations. Results show that households maintained high levels of crop diversity: up to eight crops grown, with an-average of 3.2 per household, and with less than 5% having a null or very low level of crop diversity. The value of crop species used for self-consumption was on average 55% higher than that of crop sales. Regression results show that crop diversity is positively associated with self-consumption of food crops, and cash income from crops sold. This finding suggests that increasing crop diversity opens market opportunities for households, while still contributing to self-consumption. Given these findings, crop diversification seems to be more beneficial to these farmers than specialization. For these diversified farmers, or others in similar contexts, interventions that assess and build on their de facto crop diversity are probably more likely to be successful.","wordCount":284,"journal":"World Development","authors":["M.R. Bellon","Bekele Hundie Kotu","Carlo Azzarri","Francesco Caracciolo"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104682","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-391946a160f9d905","title":"Wealthy Americans and redistribution: The role of fairness preferences","abstract":"We examine the attitudes of the wealthy towards government redistribution using a large and diverse sample of individuals from the top 5% of the income and wealth distribution in the U.S., as well as the remaining 95%. Three results stand out: (1) wealthy Americans have distinct fairness preferences, with a greater willingness to accept inequalities relative to the general public, (2) individuals who self-report having experienced upward social mobility and became first-generation wealthy are particularly accepting of inequality, while those born into wealth have fairness preferences similar to the general population; (3) the disparity in fairness preferences between the rich and the general public is predictive of greater opposition to redistribution among the wealthy, resulting in more conservative voting behavior. These findings provide new insights into the reasons behind the wealthy’s opposition to government redistribution.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Alain Cohn","Lasse J. Jessen","Marko Klašnja","Paul Smeets"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104977","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-391e8a573674d220","title":"The Discounted Euler Equation: A Note","abstract":"We present a simple model with income risk and borrowing constraints that yields a ‘discounted Euler equation’. This feature of the model mutes the extent to which news about far future real interest rates (i.e. forward guidance) affects current outcomes. We show that this simple model approximates the outcomes of a rich model with uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints in response to a forward guidance shock. The model is simple enough to be easily incorporated into simple New Keynesian models. We illustrate this with an application to the zero lower bound.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Alisdair McKay","Emi Nakamura","Jón Steinsson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12226","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-392226484b55a332","title":"Airbnb and rental markets: Evidence from Berlin","abstract":"We exploit the differential responses of Airbnb hosts to two distinct policy interventions in Berlin to shed light on the optimal design of policies targeting short-term rental platforms to mitigate rental market inflation. The first intervention, which affected commercial listings, significantly impacted long-term rental markets, unlike the second intervention, which mainly affected non-commercial listings. Leveraging these policy variations, we estimate the marginal impact of Airbnb on rental supply and rents. Each additional commercial Airbnb listing displaces 0.23 to 0.37 rental units and increases rent per square meter by 1.3 to 2.4 percent. This underscores the importance of targeting commercial listings when regulating short-term rental markets.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Tomaso Duso","Claus Michelsen","Maximilian Schaefer","Kevin Ducbao Tran"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-39262849f89a725a","title":"Who benefits from China’s coal subsidy policies? A computable partial equilibrium analysis","abstract":"Using a computable partial equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and based on global coal production, trade and consumption data in 2014, this study simulates the economic and welfare impacts of China’s coal subsidies at the industry level. Simulation results show that, first, the government’s subsidies have greatly promoted China's coal output, but may aggravate the overcapacity in China’s coal industry. Second, China's coal subsidies have significant trade destruction effects and its coal imports fall by more than 20% annually. Third, if considering the environmental cost, China's coal subsidies cause not only huge net welfare loss to China, but also harm to the global environment, thus no country benefits from China's coal subsidies.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Hongjin Xiang","Yanxiang Kuang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2019.101124","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-392a0d7bf522aa55","title":"Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home","abstract":"We study an economy’s response to an unexpected epidemic. The spread of the disease can be mitigated by reducing consumption and hours worked in the office. Working from home is subject to learning-by-doing. Private agents’ rational incentives are relatively weak and fatalistic. The planner recognizes infection and congestion externalities and implements front-loaded mitigation. Under our calibration, the planner reduces cumulative fatalities by 48$\\%$ compared to 24$\\%$ by private agents, although with a sharper drop in consumption. Our model can replicate key industry and/or occupational-level patterns and explain how large variations in outcomes across regions can stem from small initial differences.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Callum Jones","Thomas Philippon","Venky Venkateswaran"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab076","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3932ed31bdc14a14","title":"How does the macroeconomy respond to stock market fluctuations? The role of sentiment","abstract":"This study estimates the response of macroeconomic variables to stock market fluctuations in Japan and the United States. It emphasizes the economy's reaction to stock market bubbles and crashes. To do this, I propose a new way to identify bubbles and crashes by testing price-to-fundamental ratios using the newly developed trend-filtering approach. Regardless of the measures used, both countries' macroeconomy tends to respond positively to the positive shock of stock price. Asymmetric effects of the stock market are observed. Japan's macroeconomic variables, especially investment and industrial production, are more sensitive to market crashes, while those of the United States are more sensitive to stock bubbles. Finally, I provide evidence that market sentiment can affect the economy either directly or indirectly through the stock market.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Wei‐Fong Pan"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000287","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-393d8469dcadc300","title":"Economic policy uncertainty and corporate digital transformation: evidence from China","abstract":"Digital transformation refers to the process of utilizing digital technology to develop new or enhance current business processes, organizational culture, and customer experiences to satisfy changing business and market requirements. Taking all non-financial Chinese A-share firms from 2010 to 2018 as the research sample, we investigate the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on corporate digital transformation. Evidence shows that EPU has a significantly positive impact on corporate digital transformation. This result still holds after a series of robustness tests, such as employing alternative measures of key variables, controlling for various fixed effects, including possibly omitted variables and adopting estimation of instrumental variables in the 2SLS approach. In addition, market competition provides the primary channel through which EPU influences corporate digital transformation. Finally, the above EPU effect is more pronounced in firms with small size, non-SOEs, and firms with weak corporate governance. Overall, our results provide a novel explanation for the behaviour of corporate digital transformation in the emerging capital markets.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Zhuo Cheng","Tajul Ariffin Masron"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2130148","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39455d18e643cde9","title":"Dispossessed by decarbonisation: Reducing vulnerability, injustice, and inequality in the lived experience of low-carbon pathways","abstract":"This study examines the justice and equity implications of four low-carbon transitions, and it reveals the “lived experiences” of decarbonisation as manifested across Africa and Europe. Based on extensive, original mixed methods empirical research – including expert interviews, focus groups, internet forums, community interviews, and extended site visits and naturalistic observation – it asks: How are four specific decarbonisation pathways linked to negative impacts within specific communities? Relatedly, what vulnerabilities do these transitions exacerbate in these communities? Lastly, how can such vulnerabilities be better addressed with policy? The paper documents a troublesome cohabitation between French wineries and nuclear power, the negative effects on labor groups and workers in Eastern Germany by a transition to solar energy, the stark embodied externalities in electronic waste (e-waste) flows from smart meters accumulating in Ghana, and the precarious exploitation of children involved in cobalt mining for electric vehicle batteries in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The aims and objectives of the study are threefold: (1) to showcase how four very different vulnerable communities have been affected by the negative impacts of decarbonisation; (2) to reveal tensions and tradeoffs between European transitions and local and global justice concerns; and (3) to inform energy and climate policy. In identifying these objectives, our goal is not to stop or slow down all low-carbon transitions. Rather, the study suggests that the research and policy communities ought to account for, and seek to minimize, a broader range of social and environmental sustainability risks. Sustainability transitions and decarbonisation pathways must become more egalitarian, fair, and just.","wordCount":257,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Benjamin K. Sovacool","Bruno Turnheim","Andrew Hook","Andrea Brock","Mari Martiskainen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105116","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-395398c07e4417ec","title":"Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods","abstract":"We analyze the impact of trade-induced income shocks on the size of local government and the provision of public services. Areas in the United States with declining labor demand and incomes due to increasing import competition from China experience relative declines in housing prices and business activity. Since local governments are disproportionately funded through property and sales taxation, declining property values and a decrease in economic activity translate into less revenue, which constrains the ability of local governments to provide public services. State and federal governments have limited ability to smooth local shocks, and the impact on the provision of public services is compounded when local income shocks are highly correlated with shocks in the rest of the state. The outcome is a relative decline not only in incomes but also in the quality of public services and amenities in trade exposed localities.","wordCount":143,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Leo Feler","Mine Zeynep Senses"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150578","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-395c852f09579250","title":"Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century","abstract":"This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 807F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden’s discrete continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85– $185 billion (2012 dollars).","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Alan Barreca","Karen Clay","Olivier Deschênes","Michael Greenstone","Joseph Shapiro"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684582","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-397538f9f57cc442","title":"Logical differencing in dyadic network formation models with nontransferable utilities","abstract":"This paper considers a semiparametric model of dyadic network formation under nontransferable utilities (NTU). Such dyadic links arise frequently in real-world social interactions that require bilateral consent but by their nature induce additive non-separability. In our model we show how unobserved individual heterogeneity in the network formation model can be canceled out without requiring additive separability. The approach uses a new method we call logical differencing. The key idea is to construct an observable event involving the intersection of two mutually exclusive restrictions—derived based on weak multivariate monotonicity—on the fixed effects. Based on this identification strategy we provide consistent estimators of the network formation model under NTU. Finite-sample performance of our method is analyzed in a simulation study, and an empirical illustration using the risk-sharing network data from Nyakatoke demonstrates that our proposed method is able to obtain economically intuitive estimates.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Wayne Yuan Gao","Ming Li","Sheng Xu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.03.008","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-3977846f3e2c8674","title":"The gender labor productivity gap across informal firms","abstract":"Productivity gap and determinants differ across country groups by region and income status. This study uncovers a gender labor productivity gap among informal firms in 14 developing economies. The mean labor productivity of women-owned informal firms is approximately 15.6 percent (0.17 log points) lower than that of men-owned informal firms. The difference in productivity is larger at the lower quantiles of the labor productivity distribution than at the higher quantiles. The Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder and quantile decomposition methods are used to estimate the aggregate “endowment” vs “structural” effects, and individual factors’ contribution to the productivity gap. Several policy-relevant findings are revealed. First, the labor productivity gap at the mean is significantly larger due to lower education, prior work experience, capitalization, and less protection from crime among women than men owners of informal firms. The smaller size of the women-owned firms and their higher return from operations under contracts narrow the mean productivity gap. Second, the productivity gap at the mean and different labor productivity quantiles can be substantially narrowed by providing more resources to women owners of informal firms, such as education, managerial experience, and physical capital, without improvements in their returns to women-owned informal businesses. Third, overall, there is evidence of “sticky floors” for women owners, but not “glass ceilings”. Fourth, there is heterogeneity in the contribution of individual factors to the productivity gap at different quantiles of the labor productivity distribution. Targeting policies to the relevant quantiles will improve their effectiveness. Fifth, there are important similarities and differences between groups of countries in low-income Africa, middle-income Africa, and Latin America, as far as the gender labor productivity gap and its drivers are concerned. Thus, an eclectic policy approach is needed, combining the broader findings of the literature with the prevailing local conditions. Last, the data do indicate that a majority of women- and men-owned informal businesses would like to formalize.","wordCount":310,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Asif Islam","Mohammad Amin"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099726104202220986/IDU0701ff3fb0acb104fbe0ae3d0a6a066260d3f","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-397e679a76a53402","title":"Wealth inequality in Sweden, 1750–1900","abstract":"This article examines the evolution of wealth inequality in Sweden from 1750 to 1900, contributing both to the debate on early modern and modern inequality and to the general debate on the pattern of inequality during industrialization. The pre‐industrial period (1750–1850) is for the first time examined for Sweden at the national level. The study uses a random sample of probate inventories from urban and rural areas across the country, adjusted for age and social class. Estimates are provided for the years 1750, 1800, 1850, and 1900. The results show a gradual growth in inequality as early as the mid‐eighteenth century, with the sharpest rise in the late nineteenth century. Whereas the early growth in inequality was connected to changes in the countryside and in agriculture, the later growth was related to industrialization encompassing both compositional effects and strong wealth accumulation among the richest. The level of inequality in Sweden in 1750 was lower than for other western European countries, but by 1900 Sweden was just as unequal.","wordCount":168,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Erik Bengtsson","Anna Missiaia","Mats Olsson","Patrick Svensson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12576","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-397ef6d26d74c02f","title":"Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake","abstract":"Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this article provides a quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the disaster propagated upstream and downstream along supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. Using a general equilibrium model of production networks, we then obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the disaster by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the earthquake and its aftermaths resulted in a 0.47 percentage point decline in Japan’s real GDP growth in the year following the disaster.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Vasco M. Carvalho","Makoto Nirei","Yukiko Saito","Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa044","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-397f70b385f50d78","title":"How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?","abstract":"Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Christopher Roth","Johannes Wohlfart"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00867","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3982c5c8f885139f","title":"Anticompetitive Effects of Common Ownership","abstract":"Many natural competitors are jointly held by a small set of large institutional investors. In the U.S. airline industry, taking common ownership into account implies increases in market concentration that are 10 times larger than what is “presumed likely to enhance market power” by antitrust authorities. Within‐route changes in common ownership concentration robustly correlate with route‐level changes in ticket prices, even when we only use variation in ownership due to the combination of two large asset managers. We conclude that a hidden social cost—reduced product market competition—accompanies the private benefits of diversification and good governance.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["José Azar","Martin C. Schmalz","Isabel Tecu"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12698","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-3988c0224569c78e","title":"The partisanship of a central banker","abstract":"Even if formally established as independent, central banks may still be subject to partisan influences. The paper uses a simple new-Keynesian framework to model these influences as quiescence (i.e. when the central bank aligns with the ideological preferences of the incumbent government) or demurral (i.e. when the central bank moves away from the ideological preferences of the incumbent). The partisanship of the central bank then depends on which of these two prevails. The empirical analysis shows that different patterns of quiescence and demurral occur in different countries at different times. There is however also evidence that in some circumstances the conduct of monetary policy is non-partisan; that is, neither quiescence nor demurral prevails.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Fabrizio Carmignani"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-39a0e42d0bdee45b","title":"Born to Lead? The Effect of Birth Order on Noncognitive Abilities","abstract":"We study the effect of birth order on personality using Swedish population data. Earlier-born men are more emotionally stable, persistent, socially outgoing, willing to assume responsibility, and able to take initiative than later borns. Firstborn children aremore likely to bemanagers and to be in occupations requiring leadership ability, social ability, and Big Five personality traits.We find a significant role for the sex composition within the family. When investigating possible mechanisms, we find that negative effects of birth order are driven by postnatal environmental factors. We also find evidence of lower parental human capital investments in later-born children.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sandra E. Black","Erik Grönqvist","Björn Öckert"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00690","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39a34457c2518733","title":"A gender bias in reporting expected ranks when performance feedback is at stake","abstract":"We introduce a mechanism for eliciting beliefs that combines the simple use of monetary incentives with the desire to know the own performance. In our experiment, participants performed a real-effort task that naturally reinforced the desire to know their relative performance. In two treatments, differing in the degree of ex-post transparency, we elicited the belief about one’s own standing. In the Baseline, the performance ranking was always revealed. In the Treatment, we deprived the subjects of learning their relative performance if they did not accurately report their actual rank. This simple manipulation creates a bias in behavior that goes in opposite directions for men and women. Under the manipulation, men overplace even more, and women underplace themselves compared to the Baseline.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Iván Barreda‐Tarrazona","Aurora Garcı́a-Gallego","Jaume García-Segarra","Alexander Ritschel"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102505","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-39a45ef8d6a4585f","title":"High-Performing Peers and Female STEM Choices in School","abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to examine how social environment affects women’s STEM choices as early as high school. Using administrative data from China, we find that exposure to high-performing female peers in mathematics increases the likelihood that women choose a science track during high school, while exposure to more high-performing males decrease this likelihood. We also find that peer quality has persistent effects on college outcomes. Overall, there is little evidence of peer effects for boys. Our results suggest that girls doing well in mathematics provide an affirmation effect that encourages female classmates to pursue a STEM track.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Pierre Mouganie","Yaojin Wang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706052","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39a4ba023b5d3b13","title":"Matching with myopic and farsighted players","abstract":"We introduce the new notion of the pairwise myopic-farsighted stable set to study stable matchings under the assumption that players can be both myopic and farsighted. For the special case where all players are myopic, our concept predicts the set of matchings in the core. When all players are farsighted, we provide the characterization of pairwise myopic-farsighted stable sets: a set of matchings is a pairwise myopic-farsighted stable set if and only if it is a singleton consisting of a core element. This result confirms the result obtained by Mauleon et al. (2011) with a completely different effectivity function and provides a new special case where the farsighted stable set is absolutely maximal (Ray and Vohra, 2019) and coincides with the Strong Rational Expectations Farsighted Stable Set (Dutta and Vohra, 2017). When myopic and farsighted players interact, matchings outside the core can be stable and the most farsighted side can achieve its optimal stable matching.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["P. Jean‐Jacques Herings","Ana Mauleón","Vincent Vannetelbosch"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105125","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-39a80363c86b90d7","title":"The effects of scarcity on cheating and in-group favoritism","abstract":"We study the impact of scarcity on cheating and in-group favoritism using a two-period lab-in-the-field experiment with low-income coffee farmers in a small, isolated village in Guatemala. During the coffee harvesting months, farmers in this village experience a significant income boost from selling their coffee beans. However, during the non-harvesting months, they experience a substantial decline in income, inducing a pronounced state of scarcity, while other factors remain similar. Using this distinctive variance in income, we first conduct our experiment before the coffee harvest (Scarcity period). We then repeat the experiment with the same group of subjects during the harvest season (Abundance period). First, using the Fischbacher and Föllmi-Heusi (2013) die-roll paradigm, we find that subjects cheat at high levels in both periods when they are the beneficiaries of the cheating. Scarcity does not impact this cheating behavior. Secondly, using subjects’ natural village identity, we find significant in-group favoritism for cheating in the Abundance period, which disappears during the Scarcity period. Finally, using a dictator game, we show that this finding holds even when the cost of favoring an in-group member is monetary rather than moral.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Billur Aksoy","Marco A. Palma"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.06.024","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-39a86462cc9f3dec","title":"Women Helping Women? Evidence from Private Sector Data on Workplace Hierarchies","abstract":"We study gender spillovers in career advancement using eleven years of employer-employee matched data on white-collar workers at over 4, 000 private sector workplaces in Norway. Our data allow us to define seven hierarchical ranks that are consistent across plants and over time and track promotions even for individuals who change employers. We find positive spillovers across ranks (flowing from higher-ranking to lower-ranking women) but negative spillovers within ranks. The finding of narrower gender gaps in promotions for workers with more female bosses suggests that policies that increase female representation in corporate leadership can have spillover benefits to women in lower ranks.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Astrid Kunze","Amalia R. Miller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00668","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39add2953179a4a9","title":"The Impact of Sanctions for Young Welfare Recipients on Transitions to Work and Wages, and on Dropping Out","abstract":"The reintegration of young welfare recipients into the labour market is a major policy objective in many European countries. In this context, monitoring and sanctions are commonly used policy tools. We analyse the impact of strict sanctions for young welfare recipients whose institutional setting features sanctions for non‐compliance with job‐search requirements that effectively cancel benefits for a period of 3 months after detection. We consider effects on job‐search outcomes and on dropping out of the labour force, using administrative data on a large inflow sample. We estimate multivariate duration models taking selection on unobservables into account. Our results indicate an increased job entry rate at the expense of an increased withdrawal from the labour force and lower entry wages. Combining quantitative with qualitative evidence reveals that the latter side‐effects of sanctions can have dramatic consequences for the quality of life of the youths involved.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Gérard J. van den Berg","Arne Uhlendorff","Joachim Wolff"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12392","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-39c26f97a26aae90","title":"Why Wait to Settle? An Experimental Test of the Asymmetric-Information Hypothesis","abstract":"The US legal system encourages civil litigants to quickly settle their disputes, yet lengthy and expensive delays often precede private settlements. The causes of these delays are uncertain. This paper describes an economic experiment designed to test one popular hypothesis: that asymmetric information might be a contributing cause of observed settlement delays. Experimental results provide strong evidence that asymmetric information can delay settlements, increasing average time to settlement by as much as 90 percent in some treatments. This causal relationship is robustly observed across different bargaining environments. On the other hand, results do not obviously confirm all aspects of the game-theoretic explanation for this relationship and suggest that asymmetric information may be only one of several contributing causes of settlement delay.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Sean Sullivan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689704","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39c2b94e8a30906f","title":"The formation of physician altruism","abstract":"We study how patient-regarding altruism is formed by medical education. We elicit and structurally estimate altruistic preferences using experimental data from a large sample of medical students (N = 733) in Germany at different progress stages in their studies. The estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity in altruistic preferences of medical students. Patient-regarding altruism is highest for freshmen, significantly declines for students in the course of medical studies, and tends to increase again for last year students, who assist in clinical practice. Also, patient-regarding altruism is higher for females and positively associated to general altruism. Altruistic medical students have gained prior practical experience in healthcare, have lower income expectations, and are more likely to choose surgery and pediatrics as their preferred specialty.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Arthur E. Attema","Matteo M. Galizzi","Mona Groß","Heike Hennig‐Schmidt","Yassin Karay","Olivier L’Haridon","Daniel Wiesen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102716","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-39c8fed6182f6b4b","title":"Approximating purchase propensities and reservation prices from broad consumer tracking","abstract":"A consumer's web‐browsing history, now readily available, may be much more useful than demographics for both targeting advertisements and personalizing prices. Using a method that combines economic modeling and machine learning methods, I find a striking difference. Personalizing prices based on web‐browsing histories increases profits by 12.99%. Using demographics alone to personalize prices raises profits by only 0.25%, suggesting the percent profit gain from personalized pricing has increased 50‐fold. I then investigate whether regulations intended to prevent price gouging increase aggregate consumer surplus. Two feasible regulations considered offer at best modest improvements.","wordCount":92,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Benjamin Shiller"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12442","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-39c9e2cfefc23687","title":"Investment climate, outward orientation and manufacturing firm productivity: new empirical evidence","abstract":"Drawing on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we revisit the link between firm-level investment climate and productive performance for a panel of enterprises surveyed twice in time in 70 developing countries and 11 manufacturing industries. We take advantage of the time dimension available for an increasing number of countries to tackle the endogeneity issue stressed in previous studies. We also use pertinent econometric techniques to address other biases inherent in the data (e.g.measurement errors, missing observations and multicollinearity). Our results reinforce previous findings by validating, with a larger than usual sample of countries and industries, the importance of a larger set of environment variables. We show that infrastructure quality, information & communication technologies, skills and experience of the labour force, cost of and access to financing, security and political stability, competition and government relation contribute to firms’ and countries’ performances gap. The empirical analysis also illustrates that firms which choose an outward orientation have higher productivity level. Nevertheless, outward oriented enterprises are more sensitive to investment climate limitations. These findings have important policy implications by showing which dimensions of the business environment, in which industry, could help manufacturing firms to be more competitive in the present context of increasing globalization.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Marie‐Ange Véganzonès‐Varoudakis","Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1488065","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-39d183f1f772244a","title":"The Price Ain’t Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured","abstract":"We use insurance claims data covering 28% of individuals with employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States to study the variation in health spending on the privately insured, examine the structure of insurer-hospital contracts, and analyze the variation in hospital prices across the nation. Health spending per privately insured beneficiary differs by a factor of three across geographic areas and has a very low correlation with Medicare spending. For the privately insured, half of the spending variation is driven by price variation across regions, and half is driven by quantity variation. Prices vary substantially across regions, across hospitals within regions, and even within hospitals. For example, even for a nearly homogeneous service such as lower-limb magnetic resonance imaging, about a fifth of the total case-level price variation occurs within a hospital in the cross section. Hospital market structure is strongly associated with price levels and contract structure. Prices at monopoly hospitals are 12% higher than those in markets with four or more rivals. Monopoly hospitals also have contracts that load more risk on insurers (e.g., they have more cases with prices set as a share of their charges). In concentrated insurer markets the opposite occurs-hospitals have lower prices and bear more financial risk. Examining the 366 mergers and acquisitions that occurred between 2007 and 2011, we find that prices increased by over 6% when the merging hospitals were geographically close (e.g., 5 miles or less apart), but not when the hospitals were geographically distant (e.g., over 25 miles apart).","wordCount":249,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Zack Cooper","Stuart Craig","Martin Gaynor","John Van Reenen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39d7e4debb7bb687","title":"Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply","abstract":"In recent years, developing countries have been growing much more rapidly than the industrial countries. This growth convergence has potentially very important implications for world food demand and for world agriculture because of the increase in demand for agricultural resources as diets shift away from starchy staples and towards animal-based products and fruits and vegetables. Using a resource-based measure of food production and consumption that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with animal-based foods, this article finds per capita demand growth to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario to 2050 from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, which assumes continued income convergence, the article finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be about a third greater than under a hypothetical scenario of all countries growing at the same rate (78 percent). As convergence increases the growth of food supply by less than demand, it appears to be a driver of upward pressure on world food prices.","wordCount":178,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Emiko Fukase","Will Martín"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104954","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-39e740a9a9619715","title":"Corporate socio-political activism and retail investors: Evidence from the Black Lives Matter campaign","abstract":"This study investigates retail investor responses to corporate engagement in corporate socio-political activism (CSA). Using manually collected evidence of companies' support for the Black Lives Matter (BLM) campaign, we find that speaking up in support of BLM attracts retail investor attention. However, it influences their investment decisions only if speaking up is backed up by a monetary donation to BLM-related causes on the same day. This effect is observed for companies that have black directors on their board and companies headquartered in Democrat-leaning states. There is no corresponding increase in firm value. Our results suggest that retail investor preferences for companies that engage in CSA are likely guided by moral sentiment.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Ruby Brownen‐Trinh","Ayan Orujov"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102417","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-39e7dcd08c68983d","title":"Politics 2.0: The Multifaceted Effect of Broadband Internet on Political Participation","abstract":"We study the impact of the diffusion of high-speed Internet on different forms of political participation, using municipal data from Italy from 1996 to 2013. Our empirical strategy exploits the fact that the cost of providing ADSL-based broadband services in a given municipality depends on its relative position in the pre-existing voice telecommunications infrastructure. We first show that broadband Internet had a substantial negative effect on turnout in parliamentary elections up until 2008. It was, however, positively associated with other forms of political participation, both online and offline, such as the emergence of local online grassroots protest movements. The negative effect of the Internet on turnout in parliamentary elections essentially reversed after 2008, when local grassroots movements coalesced into the Five-Star Movement electoral list. Our findings support the view that: (i) the effect of the Internet varies across different forms of political participation; (ii) it changes over time, as new political actors emerge that are able to take advantage of the new technology to attract disenchanted or demobilized voters; and (iii) these new forms of mobilization eventually feed back into the mainstream electoral process, converting “exit” back into “voice.”","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Filipe Campante","Ruben Durante","Francesco Sobbrio"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx044","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-39f3630a3c5cc953","title":"Financial distress, bank branching deregulation, and customer-supplier relationships","abstract":"The paper exploits the deregulation of interstate bank branching laws to examine whether improved access to bank credit for customer firms affects the probability of their suppliers' financial distress. The study provides robust evidence that suppliers' financial distress risk is lower when the states of their major customer firms experience bank branching deregulation. Furthermore, the study shows that customers establish new bank relationships and improve liquidity conditions, while suppliers offer less trade credit to customers, reduce leverage, and increase capital expenditures following customer state's bank branching deregulation. The effect of customers' improved access to credit on suppliers' distress risk is more pronounced for supplier firms with stronger customer-supplier relationships, for financially constrained suppliers, and for suppliers whose customers are financially unconstrained. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of customers' access to credit on the financial distress risk of their suppliers.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Yili Lian"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102646","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3a030738478e0de4","title":"Employment Discrimination against Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"We conducted an audit study - a resume correspondence experiment - to measure discrimination in hiring faced by Indigenous Peoples in the United States (Native Americans, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians). We sent employers 13,516 realistic resumes of Indigenous or white applications for common jobs in 11 cities. We signalled Indigenous status in one of four different ways. Interview offer rates do not differ by race, which holds after an extensive battery of robustness checks. We discuss multiple concerns such as the saliency of signals, selection of cities and occupations, and labour market tightness that could affect the results of our audit study and those of others. We also conduct decompositions of wages, unemployment rates, unemployment durations, and employment durations to explore if discrimination might exist in contexts outside our experiment. We conclude by highlighting the essential tests and considerations that are important for future audit studies, regardless of if they find discrimination or not.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Patrick Button","Brigham Walker"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101851","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3a041bb477cc7406","title":"The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence from Municipal Aggregation","abstract":"We study the dynamics of residential electricity demand by exploiting a natural experiment that produced large and long-lasting price changes in over 250 Illinois communities. Using a flexible difference-in-difference matching approach, we estimate that the price elasticity of demand grows from − 0.09 in the first six months to − 0.27 two years later. We find similar results with a dynamic model in which usage is a function of past and future prices. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for consumption dynamics when evaluating energy policy.","wordCount":87,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Tatyana Deryugina","Alexander MacKay","Julian Reif"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180256","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3a04ce9bef6bbabc","title":"How do people view wage and price inflation?","abstract":"Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4–2023Q2, we study wage growth expectations and their link with inflation expectations. We document novel facts about wage growth expectations and the uncertainty around them. Households associate higher wage growth with a stronger economy. The link between wage and inflation expectations is weak, but stronger during the high-inflation period, in tighter labour markets, among new hires, for workers with above-inflation wage gains or higher levels of education or income. Uncertainty about wage gains is strongly positively linked to uncertainty about expected inflation, particularly during the high-inflation period.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Monica Jain","Olena Kostyshyna","Xu Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.01.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3a1a725531dfdc26","title":"Machine Labor","abstract":"The utility of machine learning (ML) for regression-based causal inference is illustrated by using lasso to select control variables for estimates of college characteristics’ wage effects. Post-double-selection lasso offers a path to data-driven sensitivity analysis. ML also seems useful for an instrumental variables (IV) first stage, since two-stage least squares (2SLS) bias reflects overfitting. While ML-based instrument selection can improve on 2SLS, split-sample IV and limited information maximum likelihood do better. Finally, we use ML to choose IV controls. Here, ML creates artificial exclusion restrictions, generating spurious findings. On balance, ML seems ill-suited to IV applications in labor economics.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Joshua D. Angrist","Brigham Frandsen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717933","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3a23b1ee4658a0da","title":"Mortality and the business cycle: Evidence from individual and aggregated data","abstract":"There has been much interest recently in the relationship between economic conditions and mortality, with some studies showing that mortality is pro-cyclical, while others find the opposite. Some suggest that the aggregation level of analysis (e.g. individual vs. regional) matters. We use both individual and aggregated data on a sample of 20-64 year-old Swedish men from 1993 to 2007. Our results show that the association between the business cycle and mortality does not depend on the level of analysis: the sign and magnitude of the parameter estimates are similar at the individual level and the aggregate (county) level; both showing pro-cyclical mortality.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Gérard J. van den Berg","Ulf‐G. Gerdtham","Stephanie von Hinke","Maarten Lindeboom","Johannes Lissdaniels","Jan Sundquist","Kristina Sundquist"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3a2debdf957a50d6","title":"Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States","abstract":"Social scientists and policy analysts have long expressed concern about the extent of intergenerational income mobility in the United States, but remarkably little empirical evidence is available. The few existing estimates of the intergenerational correlation in income have been biased downward by measurement error, unrepresentative samples, or both. New estimates based on intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics imply that the intergenerational correlation in long-run income is at least 0.4, indicating dramatically less mobility than suggested by earlier research.","wordCount":82,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Gary Solon"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2117312.pdf","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3a52cc738db57ac3","title":"Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of adiposity on hospital costs","abstract":"Estimates of the marginal effect of measures of adiposity such as body mass index (BMI) on healthcare costs are important for the formulation and evaluation of policies targeting adverse weight profiles. Most estimates of this association are affected by endogeneity bias. We use a novel identification strategy exploiting Mendelian Randomization - random germline genetic variation modelled using instrumental variables - to identify the causal effect of BMI on inpatient hospital costs. Using data on over 300,000 individuals, the effect size per person per marginal unit of BMI per year varied according to specification, including £21.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): £14.35-£28.07) for conventional inverse variance weighted models to £18.85 (95% CI: £9.05-£28.65) for penalized weighted median models. Effect sizes from Mendelian Randomization models were larger in most cases than non-instrumental variable multivariable adjusted estimates (£13.47, 95% CI: £12.51-£14.43). There was little evidence of non-linearity. Within-family estimates, intended to address dynastic biases, were imprecise.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Padraig Dixon","William Hollingworth","Sean Harrison","Neil M Davies","George Davey Smith"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102300","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3a6d00df91720e8a","title":"Heterogeneity, leveling the playing field, and affirmative action in contests","abstract":"The heterogeneous abilities of players in various competitive contexts often lead to undesirable outcomes such as low effort provision, a lack of diversity, and inequality. A range of policies is implemented to mitigate such issues by enforcing competitive balance, that is, by leveling the playing field. Some of those policies, known as affirmative action (AA) policies, are practiced in ethical response to historical discrimination against particular social groups, and are also aimed at increasing competition. This survey summarizes the rapidly growing literature on contest theory regarding AA and other policies that level the playing field. Using a general theoretical structure, we outline the theoretical, experimental, and empirical research findings on contest outcomes under a multitude of policy mechanisms, and in doing so, we touch upon some of the common debates in the AA literature.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Subhasish M. Chowdhury","Patricia Esteve‐González","Anwesha Mukherjee"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12618","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3a7c46648e6407be","title":"Do Female Executives Make a Difference? The Impact of Female Leadership on Gender Gaps and Firm Performance","abstract":"We investigate the effects of female executives on gender-specific wage distributions and firm performance. Female leadership has a positive impact at the top of the female wage distribution and a negative impact at the bottom. The impact of female leadership on firm performance increases with the share of female workers. We account for the endogeneity induced by non-random executives’ gender by including firm fixed-effects, by generating controls from a two-way fixed-effects regression and by using instruments based on regional trends. The findings are consistent with a model of statistical discrimination in which female executives are better at interpreting signals of productivity from female workers. This suggests substantial costs of women under-representation among executives.","wordCount":113,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Luca Flabbi","Mario Macis","Andrea Moro","Fabiano Schivardi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez012","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3a891647c9deecd1","title":"Can government low-carbon regulation stimulate urban green innovation? Quasi-experimental evidence from China’s low-carbon city pilot policy","abstract":"Existing studies on the innovation effect of environmental regulation lack causal identification and do not distinguish between the types of innovation. This study regards China’s low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCPP) as a quasi-natural experiment and evaluates the impact of LCCPP on urban green innovation represented by green patents. We found that as a comprehensive government low-carbon regulation, LCCPP has significantly promoted urban green innovation and increased the annual average number of green invention patent applications by approximately 320, green utility model patent applications by approximately 210, and the total number of green patent applications by approximately 530. LCCPP can promote green innovation through capital allocation, structural upgrading, investment promotion, and comprehensive governance effects. Moreover, the impact of LCCPP on green innovation demonstrates heterogeneity. LCCPP has a greater positive effect on green innovation in energy conservation, waste management, and alternative energy and is more effective in stimulating green innovation in large cities, cities in developed eastern regions, and cities rich in educational resources. Our study verifies the existence of the Porter hypothesis in China on a city scale and indicates that, for developing countries, a comprehensive low-carbon regulation that combines mandatory and market-based instruments would be preferable for promoting green innovation.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Chaofan Chen","Yongsheng Lin","Ning Lv","Wei Zhang","Yawen Sun"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2072466","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3a8a584ade9940ec","title":"What moved share prices in the nineteenth‐century London stock market?","abstract":"Using a new weekly blue‐chip index, this article investigates the causes of stock price movements on the London market between 1823 and 1870. We find that economic fundamentals explain about 15 per cent of weekly and 34 per cent of monthly variation in share prices. Contemporary press reporting from the London Stock Exchange is used to ascertain what market participants thought was causing the largest movements on the market. The vast majority of large movements were attributed by the press to geopolitical, monetary, railway‐sector, and financial‐crisis news. Investigating the stock price changes on an independent list of events reaffirms these findings, suggesting that the most important specific events that moved markets were wars involving European powers.","wordCount":116,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Gareth Campbell","William Quinn","John D. Turner","Qing Ye"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12429","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3aa498013c1081dc","title":"Testing for the appropriate level of clustering in linear regression models","abstract":"The overwhelming majority of empirical research that uses cluster-robust inference assumes that the clustering structure is known, even though there are often several possible ways in which a dataset could be clustered. We propose two tests for the correct level of clustering in regression models. One test focuses on inference about a single coefficient, and the other on inference about two or more coefficients. We provide both asymptotic and wild bootstrap implementations. The proposed tests work for a null hypothesis of either no clustering or “fine” clustering against alternatives of “coarser” clustering. We also propose a sequential testing procedure to determine the appropriate level of clustering. Simulations suggest that the bootstrap tests perform very well under the null hypothesis and can have excellent power. An empirical example suggests that using the tests leads to sensible inferences.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["James G. MacKinnon","Morten Ørregaard Nielsen","Matthew D. Webb"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3aacb3068e7ffe11","title":"Dynamic legislative bargaining with veto power: Theory and experiments","abstract":"In many domains, committees bargain over a sequence of policies and a policy remains in effect until a new agreement is reached. In this paper, I argue that, in order to assess the consequences of veto power, it is important to take into account this dynamic aspect. I analyze an infinitely repeated divide-the-dollar game with an endogenous status quo policy. I show that full appropriation by the veto player is the only stable policy when legislators are sufficiently impatient; and that, irrespective of legislators' patience and the initial division of resources, there is always an equilibrium where policy eventually gets arbitrarily close to full appropriation by the veto player. In this equilibrium, increasing legislators' patience or decreasing the veto player's proposal power makes convergence to this outcome slower and the veto player supports reforms that decrease his allocation. The main predictions of the theory find support in controlled laboratory experiments.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Salvatore Nunnari"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.11.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3abd9202d9379aec","title":"Has Greater Stock Market Participation Increased Wealth Inequality in the Us?","abstract":"Is wider access to stockholding opportunities related to reduced wealth inequality, given that it creates challenges for small and less sophisticated investors? Counterfactual analysis is used to study the influence of changes in the U . S . stockholder pool and economic environment, on the distribution of stock and net household wealth during a period of dramatic increase in stock market participation. We uncover substantial shifts in stockholder pool composition, favoring smaller holdings during the 1990s upswing but larger holdings around the burst of the Internet bubble. We find no evidence that widening access to stocks was associated with reduced net wealth inequality.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Yannis Bilias","Dimitris Georgarakos","Michael Haliassos"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12225","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3acf8b753cec580e","title":"Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu","abstract":"We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Sergio Correia","Stephan Luck","Emil Verner"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000407","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3ad4cd42bf5c7209","title":"Radical and Incremental Innovation: The Roles of Firms, Managers, and Innovators","abstract":"We investigate the determinants of radical (“creative”) innovations that break new ground in knowledge creation. We develop a model focusing on the choice between incremental and radical innovation and on how managers of different ages and human capital are sorted across firms. Firm- and patent-level evidence reveals that firms that are more “open to disruption” are significantly more likely to engage in radical innovation and hire younger managers and inventors with a comparative advantage in radical innovation. However, once the effect of the sorting is factored in, the (causal) impact of manager age on creative innovations, though positive, is small.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Ufuk Akcigit","Murat Alp Celik"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170410","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3ae0164b62705e01","title":"The information technology revolution and the unsecured credit market","abstract":"The information technology (IT) revolution coincided with the transformation of the U.S. unsecured credit market. Households' borrowing increased rapidly and there was an even faster increase in bankruptcy filings. A risk of default model with asymmetric information and costly screening is introduced to study this period. When information costs are high, the design of contracts under private information prevents some households from borrowing with a risk of default. As information costs drop, households borrow more and bankruptcy filings increase. Quantitative exercises suggest that the IT revolution may have played an important role in the transformation of the unsecured credit market.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Juan M. Sánchez"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12519","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3af80bb33b9972a1","title":"Cutthroat Capitalism versus Cuddly Socialism: Are Americans More Meritocratic and Efficiency-Seeking than Scandinavians?","abstract":"There are striking differences in inequality and redistribution between the United States and Scandinavia. To study whether there are corresponding differences in social preferences, we conducted a large-scale international social preference experiment where Americans and Norwegians make distributive choices in identical environments. Combining the infrastructure of an international online labor market and that of a leading international data collection agency, we show that Americans and Norwegians differ significantly in fairness views, but not in the importance assigned to efficiency. We also provide causal evidence suggesting that fairness considerations are more fundamental for inequality acceptance than efficiency considerations.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Ingvild Almås","Alexander W. Cappelen","Bertil Tungodden"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705551","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3afa3964c19b7327","title":"Europe Through the Crisis: Discretionary Policy Changes and Automatic Stabilizers","abstract":"Tax‐benefit policies affect changes in household incomes through two main channels: discretionary policy changes and automatic stabilizers. We study their role in the EU countries in 2007–14 using an extended decomposition approach. Our results show that the two policy actions often reduced rather than increased inequality of net incomes, and so helped offset the inequality‐increasing impact of growing disparities in gross market incomes. While inequality reductions were achieved mainly through benefits using both routes, policy changes to and the automatic stabilization response of taxes and contributions raised inequality in some countries and lowered it in others.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Alari Paulus","Iva Tasseva"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12354","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-3afca8c71401e883","title":"Estimating the gains from trade in the market for patent rights","abstract":"The “market for patents”—the sale of patents—is an often discussed source of incentives to invest in R&D. This article presents and estimates a model of the transfer and renewal of patents that, under some assumptions, allows me to quantify the gains resulting from the transfer of patents. The gains from trade measure the private benefits of reallocating the ownership of a patent from the original patentee to a new owner for whom the patent has a higher value. In addition, I study the effect that lowering transaction costs has on the proportion of patents traded and the gains from trade.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Carlos J. Serrano"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12338","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3b0294bbeb772d0c","title":"Are Chinese credit ratings relevant? A study of the Chinese bond market and credit rating industry","abstract":"We investigate the nascent but fast-growing Chinese bond market and credit rating industry. We find Chinese bond ratings are informative and significantly correlated with bond offering yields. In addition, the Chinese bond investors distinguish ratings from different credit rating agencies (CRAs), demanding lower yields on bonds rated by global-partnered CRAs. However, the empirical results suggest that the rating scales used by Chinese CRAs are not comparable to those of international CRAs. Furthermore, Chinese CRAs have very broad rating scales and pool bonds with significantly different default risks into a single rating category, resulting in over 90% of bonds in only three rating categories.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Miles Livingston","Winnie P.H. Poon","Lei Zhou"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.09.020","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3b0364badb29805e","title":"The Sad Truth about Happiness Scales","abstract":"Happiness is reported in ordered intervals (e.g., very, pretty, not too happy). We review and apply standard statistical results to determine when such data permit identification of two groups’ relative average happiness. The necessary conditions for nonparametric identification are strong and unlikely to ever be satisfied. Standard parametric approaches cannot identify this ranking unless the variances are exactly equal. If not, ordered probit findings can be reversed by lognormal transformations. For nine prominent happiness research areas, conditions for nonparametric identification are rejected and standard parametric results are reversed using plausible transformations. Tests for a common reporting function consistently reject.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Timothy N. Bond","Kevin Lang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701679","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3b1145244f3e9dd9","title":"Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching","abstract":"This paper proposes maximum (quasi)likelihood estimation for high dimensional factor models with regime switching in the loadings. The model parameters are estimated jointly by the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm, which in the current context only requires iteratively calculating regime probabilities and principal components of the weighted sample covariance matrix . When regime dynamics are taken into account, smoothed regime probabilities are calculated using a recursive algorithm . Consistency, convergence rates and limit distributions of the estimated loadings and the estimated factors are established under weak cross-sectional and temporal dependence as well as heteroscedasticity . It is worth noting that due to high dimension, regime switching can be identified consistently after the switching point with only one observation period. Simulation results show good performance of the proposed method. An application to the FRED-MD dataset illustrates the potential of the proposed method for detection of business cycle turning points.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Giovanni Urga","Fa Wang"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105752","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3b2506f264d2df8e","title":"Are There Environmental Benefits from Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance of Local Factors","abstract":"We combine a theoretical discrete-choice model of vehicle purchases, an econometric analysis of electricity emissions, and the AP2 air pollution model to estimate the geographic variation in the environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles. The second-best electric vehicle purchase subsidy ranges from $2,785 in California to −$4,964 in North Dakota, with a mean of −$1,095. Ninety percent of local environmental externalities from driving electric vehicles in one state are exported to others, implying they may be subsidized locally, even when the environmental benefits are negative overall. Geographically differentiated subsidies can reduce deadweight loss, but only modestly.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Stephen P. Holland","Erin T. Mansur","Nicholas Z. Muller","Andrew J. Yates"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150897","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3b3b6d902f242a4d","title":"Perceptions of Inherited Wealth and the Support for Inheritance Taxation","abstract":"We study how attitudes to inheritance taxation are influenced by information about the role of inherited wealth in society. Using a randomized experiment in a register‐linked Swedish survey, we find that informing individuals about the large aggregate importance of inherited wealth and its link to inequality of opportunity significantly increases the support for inheritance taxation. Changes in the perceived economic importance of inherited wealth and altered views on whether luck matters most for economic success appear to be driving factors behind the treatment effect. Our findings suggest that the low salience of inherited wealth could be one explanation behind the relatively marginalized role of inheritance taxation in developed economies.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Spencer Bastani","Daniel Waldenström"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12359","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-3b4498610ff89f7e","title":"Between data cleaning and inference: Pre-averaging and robust estimators of the efficient price","abstract":"Pre-averaging is a popular strategy for mitigating microstructure in high frequency financial data. As the term suggests, transaction or quote data are averaged over short time periods ranging from 30 s to five min, and the resulting averages approximate the efficient price process much better than the raw data. Apart from reducing the size of the microstructure, the methodology also helps synchronise data from different securities. The procedure is robust to short term dependence in the noise. Since averages can be subject to outliers, and since they can pulverise jumps, we have developed a broader theory which also applies to cases where M-estimation is used to pin down the efficient price in local neighbourhoods. M-estimation serves the same function as averaging, but we shall see that it is safer. Good choices of M-estimating function greatly enhance the identification of jumps. The methodology applies off-the-shelf to any high frequency econometric problem. In this paper, we develop a general theory for pre-averaging and M-estimation based inference. We show that, up to a contiguity adjustment, the estimated process behaves as if one sampled from a semimartingale (with unchanged volatility) plus an independent error. Estimating the efficient price is a form of pre-processing of the data, and hence the methods in this paper also serve the purpose of data cleaning.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Per A. Mykland","Lan Zhang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.05.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3b564e2e27723953","title":"Quality heterogeneity and misallocation: The welfare benefits of raising your standards","abstract":"Using data from Chile, we find that more restrictive standards are associated with a reallocation of domestic sales from small to large firms, which has allocative efficiency implications. Guided by this evidence, we study the welfare effects of the reallocation brought about by stricter standards in a model with monopolistically competitive, heterogeneous firms, and a general demand system. Restrictive standards have an ambiguous effect on welfare. On the one hand, they improve allocative efficiency because low-quality firms over-produce in the market allocation. This market distortion is driven entirely by the presence of variable markups and exists to varying degrees in both homothetic and non-homothetic frameworks. On the other hand, the imposition of stricter standards forces firms to pay a fixed cost that is welfare reducing. We estimate our model for Chile and find significant heterogeneity in the welfare gains from moving to the optimal standards policy across industries.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Luca Macedoni","Ariel Weinberger"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103544","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3b6026a56cc36759","title":"Business capital accumulation and the user cost: Is there a heterogeneity bias?","abstract":"Using data from 23 sectors in 10 OECD countries over the period 1984–2007 we show that the homogeneity assumption underlying empirical models of capital accumulation may lead to mis-specification. Thus, we adopt a fully disaggregated approach – by asset types and sectors – to estimate the responsiveness of investment to the tax-adjusted user cost of capital. Once all the sources of heterogeneity are accounted for, we find that capital accumulation is significantly affected by changes in the user cost, although the size of the impact is smaller than the unit benchmark. We do not find robust evidence that the long run substitution elasticities are statistically different across asset types.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Serena Fatica"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.12.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3b761a897bfaa1c3","title":"Borrowers’ Distress and Debt Relief: Evidence from a Natural Experiment","abstract":"Using unique borrower-level data, we study the causal effect of debt relief on the loan performance of distressed and nondistressed borrowers. We employ a regression discontinuity design that exploits exogenous cutoff dates underlying the 2008 Indian debt waiver program to separate defaulters on loans into beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries of waivers. By identifying distress before the waiver program using exogenous borrower-level shocks, we examine performance on loans originated after the waiver program. Loan performance of nondistressed beneficiaries worsens, while that of distressed borrowers improves. While existing studies aggregate the effects of debt relief across distressed and nondistressed borrowers, we highlight crucial differences between them.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Saptarshi Mukherjee","Krishnamurthy Subramanian","Prasanna L. Tantri"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701902","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3b7749846ae02daf","title":"How not to measure the standard of living: Male wages, non‐market production and household income in nineteenth‐century Europe","abstract":"While real male wages can be used to measure input costs, they do not provide accurate measures of the standard of living. This paper uses detailed accounts of nineteenth‐century European families collected by Le Play and his colleagues to demonstrate the importance of non‐market production for household consumption. If we measure income from all sources, including non‐market production, the British advantage in material consumption was only about half of the British advantage in male wages. While British male wages were high, British wives worked less and British families were more dependent on the income of the male head than continental families.","wordCount":101,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Joyce Burnette"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13339","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3b7ea66599063d50","title":"Artificial intelligence and systemic risk","abstract":"Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing how the financial system is operated, taking over core functions for both cost savings and operational efficiency reasons. AI will assist both risk managers and the financial authorities. However, it can destabilize the financial system, creating new tail risks and amplifying existing ones due to procyclicality, unknown-unknowns, the need for trust, and optimization against the system.","wordCount":62,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Jón Danı́elsson","Robert Macrae","Andreas Uthemann"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106290","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3b8a6e90a2505380","title":"The Geography of Remote Work","abstract":"Big city economies specialize in business service industries whose workers' local spending in turn supports a large local consumer service industry. Business service jobs have a high remote work potential. If remote work becomes more prevalent, many business service workers may leave expensive cities and work from elsewhere withdrawing spending from the local nontradable service industries dependent on their demand. We use the recent COVID-19-induced increase in remote work to test for the strength of this mechanism and find it to be strong. As a result, low-skill service workers in big cities bore most of the pandemic's economic impact. Our findings have broader implications for the distributional consequences of the US economy's transition to more remote work.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Lukas Althoff","Fabian Eckert","Sharat Ganapati","Conor Walsh"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","M","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103770","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3b8cac242339a7c7","title":"Dynamic relationship between Stock and Bond returns: A GAS MIDAS copula approach","abstract":"Stock and bond are the two most crucial assets for portfolio allocation and risk management. This study proposes generalized autoregressive score mixed frequency data sampling (GAS MIDAS) copula models to analyze the dynamic dependence between stock returns and bond returns. A GAS MIDAS copula decomposes their relationship into a short-term dependence and a long-term dependence. While the long-term dependence is driven by related macro-finance factors using a MIDAS regression, the short-term effect follows a GAS process. Asymmetric dependence at different quantiles is also taken into account. We find that the proposed GAS MIDAS copula models are more effective in optimal portfolio allocation and improve the accuracy in risk management compared to other alternatives.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Hoang Nguyen","Farrukh Javed"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.07.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3b901411da5fd91d","title":"Are the grandparents alright? The health consequences of grandparental childcare provision","abstract":"This paper examines the causal effect of childcare provision on grandparents’ health in the United States. We use the sex ratio among older adults’ children as an instrument for grandparental childcare provision. Our instrument exploits that parents of daughters transition to grandparenthood earlier and invest more in their grandchildren than parents of sons. We estimate 2SLS regressions using data from the Health and Retirement Study. The results suggest that providing childcare is detrimental to grandparents’ physical functioning and subjective health. We show that these effects increase with the intensity of grandchild care provision, and the effects are driven primarily by grandmothers.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Peter Eibich","Xianhua Zai"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01044-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3b9e7341dd08889e","title":"Economic lessons for <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 pandemic policies","abstract":"The COVID‐19 pandemic poses novel health issues. However, the benefits and costs of the pandemic and policies to address it have a familiar economic structure. Chief among the health‐related benefits are the monetized values of the U.S. mortality costs of $3.9 trillion in 2020. The combined U.S. mortality and morbidity costs are $5.5–5.9 trillion. Global mortality costs in 2020 total $10.1 trillion. The skewed age distribution of COVID‐19 illnesses has stimulated increased advocacy of downward adjustments in the value of a statistical life (VSL) for older people. This article examines the role of age for policy analysis generally and for the rationing of scarce medical treatments, such as ventilators. Mortality risk reduction benefits should be based on the reduced probability of death multiplied by the pertinent VSL. Effective communication of risks to foster precautions hinges on the credibility of the information source, which public officials have jeopardized. Efficient control of risks imposes limits on personal freedoms to foster health improvements.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["W. Kip Viscusi"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12492","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3bbaa490d06f9eef","title":"Returns to Education: The Causal Effects of Education on Earnings, Health, and Smoking","abstract":"This paper estimates returns to education using a dynamic model of educational choice that synthesizes approaches in the structural dynamic discrete choice literature with approaches used in the reduced form treatment effect literature. It is an empirically robust middle ground between the two approaches which estimates economically interpretable and policy-relevant dynamic treatment effects that account for heterogeneity in cognitive and non-cognitive skills and the continuation values of educational choices. Graduating college is not a wise choice for all. Ability bias is a major component of observed educational differentials. For some, there are substantial causal effects of education at all stages of schooling.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["James J. Heckman","John Eric Humphries","Gregory Veramendi"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/698760","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3bc879e31cae1717","title":"Selling substitute goods to loss‐averse consumers: limited availability, bargains, and rip‐offs","abstract":"This article derives the optimal pricing and product‐availability strategies for a retailer selling two substitute goods to loss‐averse consumers and shows that limited‐availability sales manipulate consumers into an ex ante unfavorable purchase. The seller maximizes profits by raising the consumers' reference point through a tempting discount on a good available only in limited supply (the bargain), and cashing in with a high price on the other (the rip‐off), which consumers buy if the bargain is not available to reduce their disappointment. The seller might prefer to offer a deal on the more valuable product, using it as a bait.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Antonio Rosato"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12139","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3bf7dbc18222fb6f","title":"Power to Choose? An Analysis of Consumer Inertia in the Residential Electricity Market","abstract":"Many jurisdictions around the world have deregulated utilities and opened retail markets to competition. However, inertial decision making can diminish consumer benefits of retail competition. Using household-level data from the Texas residential electricity market, we document evidence of consumer inertia. We estimate an econometric model of retail choice to measure two sources of inertia: search frictions/inattention and a brand advantage that consumers afford the incumbent. We find that households rarely search for alternative retailers, and when they do search, households attach a brand advantage to the incumbent. Counterfactual experiments show that low-cost information interventions can notably increase consumer surplus.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Alı Hortaçsu","Seyed Ali Madanizadeh","Steven L. Puller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150235","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3bfd794318aaa5ab","title":"Recession experiences during early adulthood shape prosocial attitudes later in life","abstract":"This paper explores whether the experience of a recession during early adulthood shapes individuals’ prosocial attitudes. The analysis uses survey responses to experimentally validated questions that measure prosocial attitudes for approximately 64,000 respondents in 74 countries. The identification approach exploits variation in recession experiences across 75 different birth cohorts. We find that exposure to a recession during early adulthood is associated with lower levels of prosociality later in life. The effect only emerges for experiences during the impressionable years (age 18–25), mainly affects prosocial attitudes among men, and is orthogonal to the effect of experiences with democracy.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Jan Bietenbeck","Uwe Sunde","Petra Thiemann"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105327","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3c0babcc48cfec1e","title":"Resources and Intimate Partner Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"Combining DHS data for 580,000 women from 30 different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, we analyze how both the incidence and the acceptance of intimate partner violence vary across time and space, in a region with record high levels of violence against women. We review the existing literature regarding the impact of resources on intimate partner violence, extracting testable and often conflicting hypotheses at the micro and macro level, and on the interaction across levels. We propose to extend existing theory to take into account attitudes at the community level. In the empirical analysis, we find no evidence that resources protect against abuse at the individual level, although resources are associated with lower acceptance. We find that resource inequality, both within the household and at the aggregate level, is associated with more abuse. Finally, we find that employed women face greater risk of abuse in communities with relatively higher acceptance of wife-beating.","wordCount":151,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Sara Cools","Andreas Kotsadam"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.027","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3c4c94c82deb1cfa","title":"Ranking Firms Using Revealed Preference","abstract":"This article estimates workers' preferences for firms by studying the structure of employer-to-employer transitions in U.S. administrative data. The article uses a tool from numerical linear algebra to measure the central tendency of worker flows, which is closely related to the ranking of firms revealed by workers' choices. There is evidence for compensating differentials when workers systematically move to lower-paying firms in a way that cannot be accounted for by layoffs or differences in recruiting intensity. The estimates suggest that compensating differentials account for over half of the firm component of the variance of earnings.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Isaac Sorkin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy001","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3c585ae3abe5411b","title":"Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S.","abstract":"We document new facts about risk in male wages and earnings, household earnings, and pre- and post-tax income in the Netherlands and the United States. We find that, in both countries, earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. Individual-level male wage and earnings risk is relatively high at the beginning and end of the working life, and for those in the lower and upper parts of the income distribution. Hours are the main driver of the negative skewness and, to a lesser extent, the high kurtosis of earnings changes. Even though we find no evidence of added-worker effects, the presence of spousal earnings reduces the variability of household income compared to that of male earnings. In the Netherlands, government transfers are a major source of insurance, substantially reducing the standard deviation, negative skewness, and kurtosis of income changes. In the U.S. the role of family insurance is much larger than in the Netherlands. Family and government insurance reduce, but do not eliminate non-linearities in household disposable income by age and previous earnings in either country.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Mariacristina De Nardi","Giulio Fella","Marike Knoef","Gonzalo Paz-Pardo","Raun van Ooijen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104327","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3c60f88e7ebd4240","title":"OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market","abstract":"We estimate a dominant firm-competitive fringe model for the crude oil market using quarterly data on oil prices for the 1986–2016 period. The estimated structural parameters have the expected signs and are significant. We find that OPEC exercised market power during the sample period. Counterfactual experiments indicate that world GDP is the main driver of long-run oil prices. However, supply (depletion) factors have become more important in recent years.","wordCount":69,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Rolf Golombek","Alfonso Irarrazabal","Lin Ma"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.11.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3c788a09991810b9","title":"Learn from the Past, Prepare for the Future: Impacts of Education and Experience on Disaster Preparedness in the Philippines and Thailand","abstract":"This study aims at understanding the role of education in promoting disaster preparedness. Strengthening resilience to climate-related hazards is an urgent target of Goal 13 of the Sustainable Development Goals. Preparing for a disaster such as stockpiling of emergency supplies or having a family evacuation plan can substantially minimize loss and damages from natural hazards. However, the levels of household disaster preparedness are often low even in disaster-prone areas. Focusing on determinants of personal disaster preparedness, this paper investigates: (1) pathways through which education enhances preparedness; and (2) the interplay between education and experience in shaping preparedness actions. Data analysis is based on face-to-face surveys of adults aged ≥15 years in Thailand (N = 1,310) and the Philippines (N = 889, female only). Controlling for socio-demographic and contextual characteristics, we find that formal education raises the propensity to prepare against disasters. Using the KHB method to further decompose the education effects, we find that the effect of education on disaster preparedness is mainly mediated through social capital and disaster risk perception in Thailand whereas there is no evidence that education is mediated through observable channels in the Philippines. This suggests that the underlying mechanisms explaining the education effects are highly context-specific. Controlling for the interplay between education and disaster experience, we show that education raises disaster preparedness only for those households that have not been affected by a disaster in the past. Education improves abstract reasoning and anticipation skills such that the better educated undertake preventive measures without needing to first experience the harmful event and then learn later. In line with recent efforts of various UN agencies in promoting education for sustainable development, this study provides a solid empirical evidence showing positive externalities of education in disaster risk reduction.","wordCount":290,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Roman Hoffmann","Raya Muttarak"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3c8987a826f64853","title":"US stock market sensitivity to interest and inflation rates: a quantile regression approach","abstract":"This article studies the sensitivity of the US stock market to nominal and real interest rates and inflation during the 2003--2013 period using quantile regression (QR). The empirical results show that the stock market has a significant sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation and finds differences across sectors and over time. Moreover, the effect of changes in both interest rates and inflation tends to be more pronounced during extreme market conditions, thus distinguishing expansion periods from recession periods.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Francisco Jareño","Román Ferrer","Stanislava Miroslavova"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1122735","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3c8b099e10df5b8c","title":"Fiscal expectations, the sovereign–bank nexus, and bond yields in emerging and developing economies","abstract":"What drives domestic sovereign bond yields in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs)? This paper shows that fiscal policy expectations are central to domestic yields, with effects amplified by the sovereign–bank nexus. A tractable Fiscal Theory of the Price Level framework explains why fiscal shocks affect domestic but not external bond yields. Following Laubach (2009)’s approach, a 1 percentage point increase in expected primary deficits raises 10-year domestic yields by about 36 basis points, rising to 50 basis points in countries with elevated bank exposures to sovereign debt. In contrast, external bond spreads respond mainly to global risk factors. These findings highlight the role of fiscal expectations and domestic financial structure in shaping sovereign borrowing costs in EMDEs.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Manabu Nose"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2026.103762","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3c95e199bf033a82","title":"Altruism, fast and slow? Evidence from a meta-analysis and a new experiment","abstract":"Can we use the lens of dual-system theories to explain altruistic behavior? In recent years this question has attracted the interest of both economists and psychologists. We contribute to this emerging literature by reporting the results of a meta-study of the literature and a new experiment. Our meta-study is based on 22 experimental studies conducted with more than 12,000 subjects. We show that the overall effect of manipulating cognitive resources to promote the “intuitive” system at the expense of the “deliberative” system is very close to zero. One reason for this null result could be that promoting intuition has heterogeneous effects on altruism across different subgroups of subjects or contexts. Another reason could be that there simply is no real effect and that previously reported single results are false positives. We explore the role of heterogeneity both by performing a mediator analysis of the meta-analytic effect and by conducting a new experiment designed to circumvent the issue of potential heterogeneity in the direction of the effect of promoting intuition. In both cases, we find little evidence that heterogeneity explains the absence of an overall effect of intuition on altruism. Taken together, our results offer little support for dual-system theories of altruistic behavior.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Hanna Fromell","Daniele Nosenzo","Trudy Owens"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09645-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3ca80788fcc5a5d5","title":"Employment protection, technology choice, and worker allocation","abstract":"We show empirically that high‐risk sectors, which contribute strongly to aggregate productivity growth, are relatively small and have relatively low productivity growth in countries with strict employment protection legislation (EPL). To understand these findings, we develop a two‐sector matching model where firms endogenously choose between a safe technology and a risky technology. For firms that have chosen the risky technology, EPL raises the costs of shedding workers in case they receive a low productivity draw. According to our calibrated model, high‐EPL countries benefit less from the arrival of new risky technologies than low‐EPL countries. Parameters estimated through reduced‐form regressions of employment and productivity on exit costs, riskiness, and in particular their interaction are qualitatively similar for actual cross‐country data and simulated model data. Our model is consistent with the slowdown in productivity in the European Union relative to the United States since the mid‐1990s.","wordCount":144,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Eric J. Bartelsman","Pieter A. Gautier","Joris de Wind"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12176","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3cb3f819ebe4d49a","title":"Is increasing inorganic fertilizer use for maize production in SSA a profitable proposition? Evidence from Nigeria","abstract":"Inorganic fertilizer use across Sub-Saharan Africa is generally considered to be low. Yet, the notion that fertilizer use is too low is predicated on the assumption that it is profitable to use rates higher than currently observed. There is, however, limited empirical evidence to support this. Using a nationally representative panel dataset, this paper empirically estimates the profitability of fertilizer use for maize production in Nigeria. We find that fertilizer use in Nigeria is not as low as conventional wisdom suggests. Low marginal physical product and high transportation costs significantly reduce the profitability of fertilizer use. Apart from reduced transportation costs, other constraints such as soil quality, timely access to the product, and availability of complementary inputs such as improved seeds, irrigation and credit, as well as good management practices are also necessary for sustained agricultural productivity improvements.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool‐Tasie","B. T. Omonona","Awa Sanou","Wale Ogunleye"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3cc852ba657c61b4","title":"Presidential Address: “A Thousand Petty Fortresses”: Administrative Burden in U.S. Immigration Policies and Its Consequences","abstract":"Contradictory elements in U.S. immigration policy, reflecting a long‐time struggle between inclusionary and exclusionary views, have resulted in federal legislation filled with compromises and tradeoffs that, at state and sub‐state levels, play out in unclear interpretations and uneven, highly discretionary administration and enforcement of immigration law and policy. This research describes a tool of discretionary administration—administrative burden—that is increasingly used in enforcing immigration law and policies at state and sub‐state levels and presents a theoretical frame for more fully investigating and addressing its consequences. The application and implications of administrative burden are explored empirically and qualitatively in a case study analysis of an enforcement‐oriented policy change in Texas that denied access to birth certificates for some citizen‐children born to Mexican immigrants. To better understand the potential consequences of this and related policies, interviews with immigrant parents and longitudinal data from a survey of children of immigrants are analyzed to assess both short‐term and later outcomes of children who are denied economic assistance and other benefits under policies that impose barriers to their integration into society. The study findings point to serious, adverse consequences for citizen children of state and sub‐state immigration policies that create administrative burden and perpetuate racial discrimination, while simultaneously diminishing the transparency, fairness, and effectiveness of public administration.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Carolyn J. Heinrich"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22046","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3cc8c6e7b2d9fd3d","title":"Does Credit Crunch Investment Down? New Evidence on the Real Effects of the Bank-Lending Channel","abstract":"We quantify the real effects of the bank-lending channel exploiting the dramatic liquidity drought in interbank markets that followed the 2007 financial crisis as a source of variation in credit supply. Using a large sample of matched firm–bank data from Italy, we find had the interbank market not collapsed, investment expenditure would have been more than 20% higher and would have increased by around 30 cents per additional euro of available credit at the average firm. We also find that credit shocks affect the firm's value added, employment and input purchases, and propagate through firms' trade credit chains.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Federico Cingano","Francesco Manaresi","Enrico Sette"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw040","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3cd73ea9ed470804","title":"Risk attitudes and digit ratio (2D:4D): Evidence from prospect theory","abstract":"Prenatal androgens have organizational effects on brain and endocrine system development, which may have a partial impact on economic decisions. Numerous studies have investigated the relationship between prenatal testosterone and financial risk taking, yet results remain inconclusive. We suspect that this is due to difficulty in capturing risk preferences with expected utility based tasks. Prospect theory, on the other hand, suggests that risk preferences differ between gains, losses and mixed prospects, as well as for different probability levels. This study investigates the relationship between financial risk taking and 2D:4D, a putative marker of prenatal testosterone exposure, in the framework of prospect theory. We conducted our study with 350 participants of Caucasian and Asian ethnicities. We do not observe any significant relationship between 2D:4D and risk taking in either of these domains and ethnicities.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Levent Neyse","Ferdinand M. Vieider","Patrick Ring","Catharina C. Probst","Christian Kaernbach","Thilo van Eimeren","Ulrich Schmidt"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09321-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3cdec98452f8dd9d","title":"Defaults, normative anchors, and the occurrence of risky and cautious shifts","abstract":"Choice shifts occur when individuals advocate a risky (safe) decision when acting as part of a group even though they prefer a safe (risky) decision when acting as individuals. Even though research in psychology and economics has produced a mass of evidence on this puzzling phenomenon, there is no agreement about which mechanism produces choice shifts. In an experiment, we investigate the performance of two prominent mechanisms that have been proposed to explain the phenomenon; (i) rank-dependent utility and (ii) a desire to conform to the wishes of the majority. The evidence provides clear support for the conformity explanation.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Stephan Jagau","Theo Offerman"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9282-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3ce3ee4fd7fcb472","title":"A sustainable livelihoods framework for the 21st century","abstract":"This paper proposes a reformulation of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) fit for the 21st century. The article explores the rise and usage of the original SLF, highlighting how its popularity among development practitioners emerged both from its practical focus, and its depoliticization of wider shifts in the development landscape at the time. Distilling the various critiques that have emerged around the use of the SLF and sustainable livelihoods approaches, the article highlights problems of theory, method, scale, historical conceptualisation, politics, and debates on decolonising knowledge. It further explores two key shifts in the global development landscape that characterise the 21st century, namely the impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods, and the shifts wrought by globalisation, before highlighting the structural and relational turns in critical development literature. In speaking to both historical critiques and more recent debates, we present a SLF for the 21st century, foregrounding a structural, spatially-disaggregated, dynamic and ecologically-coherent approach to framing rural livelihoods. We offer a framework and not an approach, hoping that that our SLF leaves open the possibility for different theoretical traditions to better work with emerging rural livelihoods.","wordCount":186,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Nithya Natarajan","Andrew Newsham","Jonathan Rigg","Diana Suhardiman"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105898","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3ce835344dc6eec6","title":"Long-term care spending and hospital use among the older population in England","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of changes in public long-term care spending on the use of public hospitals among the older population in England. Mean per-person long-term care spending fell by 31% between 2009/10 and 2017/18, but cuts varied considerably geographically. We instrument public long-term care spending with predicted spending based on historical national funding shares and national spending trends. We find that reductions in public long-term care spending led to substantial increases in the number of emergency department (ED) visits made by patients aged 65 and above, explaining between a quarter and a half of the growth in ED use among this population over this period, and to an increase in the share of patients revisiting the ED within seven days. However, there was no impact on wider use of inpatient or outpatient services (which are more expensive to provide), and consequently little impact on overall hospital costs.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Rowena Crawford","George Stoye","Ben Zaranko"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102477","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3ceea1282d12acf9","title":"Do minimum wage increases influence worker health?","abstract":"This study investigates whether minimum wage increases impact worker health in the United States. We consider self‐reported measures of general, mental, and physical health. We use data on lesser‐skilled workers from the 1993 to 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey. Among men, we find no evidence that minimum wage increases improve health; instead, we find that such increases lead to worse health outcomes, particularly among unemployed men. We find both worsening general health and improved mental health following minimum wage increases among women. These findings broaden our understanding of the full impacts of minimum wage increases on lesser‐skill workers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Brady P. Horn","Johanna Catherine Maclean","Michael R. Strain"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12453","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3d0e7f6a4ceeff86","title":"Investors awaken: Fragility in China’s wealth management product market","abstract":"In this paper, we provide the first analysis of credit flow dynamics in the Chinese market for wealth management products (WMPs) when their information sensitivity changes. Precipitated by the bond market selloff following the unexpected COVID-19 policy relaxation in 2022Q4, a shift in risk perceptions amplifies WMPs’ sensitivity to performance and triggers significant outflows once net asset values fall below a threshold. As WMPs become more information sensitive, investor flows exhibit a flight-to-cash pattern. Products with lower redemption frequencies experience smaller outflows, consistent with the notion that they are a poorer substitute for cash. WMP issuers respond to outflows by imposing redemption gates and shifting issuance away from fragile products.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Yabin Wang","Zhang Wu"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101716","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3d2f71ccad5152ac","title":"Deregulation, listing and delisting","abstract":"We study patterns of new lists, delisting and mergers in deregulated industries in the 1973 to 2017 period. Consistent with prior research, we find that merger activity tends to cluster in deregulated industries. But we provide new evidence that new lists and overall delisting also cluster in deregulated industries, with new lists preceding delisting. We also find that deregulated industries are growing in size and value prior to deregulation and grow significantly larger, more valuable and more competitive following deregulation. The results are consistent with the linkage of deregulation and industries undergoing significant change; deregulation aids in industry adaptation to change and facilitates expansion. Moreover, the results provide a specific mechanism by which industries undergo event waves.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Robert Loveland","J. Harold Mulherin","Kevin Okoeguale"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101985","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3d31b27369b02ea3","title":"Migrant Networks and Trade: The Vietnamese Boat People as a Natural Experiment","abstract":"We provide cogent evidence for the causal pro-trade effect of migrants and in doing so establish an important link between migrant networks and long-run economic development. To this end, we exploit a unique event in human history, the exodus of the Vietnamese Boat People to the US. This episode represents an ideal natural experiment as the large immigration shock, the first wave of which comprised refugees exogenously allocated across the US, occurred over a twenty-year period during which time the US imposed a complete trade embargo on Vietnam. Following the lifting of trade restrictions in 1994, the share of US exports going to Vietnam was higher and more diversified in those US States with larger Vietnamese populations, themselves the result of larger refugee inflows 20 years earlier.","wordCount":127,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Christopher Parsons","Pierre‐Louis Vézina"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12457","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3d34ea6108f3e8e3","title":"SVAR (Mis)Identification and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks","abstract":"I argue that the seemingly disparate findings of the recent empirical literature on monetary policy transmission are all consistent with the same standard macro models. Weak sign restrictions, which suggest that contractionary monetary policy, if anything, boosts output, present as policy shocks what actually are expansionary demand and supply shocks. Classical zero restrictions are robust to such misidentification, but miss short-horizon effects. Two recent approaches—restrictions on Taylor rules and external instruments—instead work well. My findings suggest that empirical evidence is consistent with models in which the real effects of monetary policy are larger than commonly estimated.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Christian K. Wolf"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180328","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3d3ca33a5c08e641","title":"The role of information and experience for households’ inflation expectations","abstract":"Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role that information channels and lifetime experience play in households’ inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households use to inform themselves about monetary policy are closely related to their socioeconomic characteristics. These information channels, in turn, have a major influence on the level of perceived past and expected future inflation, as well as on the uncertainty thereof. The expected future change in inflation and the unemployment rate, however, is strongly influenced by individual experience of these variables. Similarly, the expected response of inflation to a change in the interest rate is also shaped by experience. We propose the interpretation that households obtain inflation numbers from the media, but their ‘economic model’ is shaped by experience.","wordCount":131,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Christian Conrad","Zeno Enders","Alexander Glas"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.104015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3d3e3d6cc1abf252","title":"Pseudo‐Bayesian updating","abstract":"I propose an axiomatic framework for belief revision when new information is qualitative, of the form “event A is at least as likely as event B .” My decision maker need not have beliefs about the joint distribution of the signal she will receive and the payoff‐relevant states. I propose three axioms, Exchangeability , Stationarity , and Reduction , to characterize the class of pseudo‐Bayesian updating rules. The key axiom, Exchangeability , requires that the order in which the information arrives does not matter if the different pieces of information neither reinforce nor contradict each other. I show that adding one more axiom, Conservatism , which requires that the decision maker adjust her beliefs just enough to embrace new information, yields Kullback–Leibler minimization: The decision maker selects the posterior closest to her prior in terms of Kullback–Leibler divergence from the probability measures consistent with newly received information. I show that pseudo‐Bayesian agents are susceptible to recency bias, which may be mitigated by repetitive learning.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Chen Zhao"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4535","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-3d4f0cfa948329a9","title":"Making Do With What You Have: Conflict, Input Misallocation and Firm Performance","abstract":"This article investigates whether conflict induces distortions in the functioning and accessibility of markets for production inputs and in their allocation among firms. We study firm operations and outcomes in the context of Palestine during the Second Intifada. We analyse input usage over time across districts experiencing differential changes in conflict intensity. Conflict induces firms to substitute domestically produced materials for imported ones. Counterfactual analyses show that this mechanism can account for more than 70% of the fall in the output value of firms in high conflict districts.","wordCount":88,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Francesco Amodio","Michele Di Maio"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12518","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3d53f7142a307e50","title":"FinTech vs. Bank: The impact of lending technology on credit market competition","abstract":"Does the recent proliferation of technology in lending process have an impact on business loan market competition? Using a theoretical model that assumes heterogeneity in lenders’ screening abilities and borrowers’ investment horizons, we show that FinTech (Traditional) lenders primarily supply unsecured (asset-backed) loans to borrowers with short-term (long-term) projects. The model builds on the interplay between screening ability and collateral requirements to characterize the competition between two ex-ante symmetric lenders. Lenders use screening technology and collateral requirements to mitigate competition and restrict the supply of credit through an endogenous segmentation of the loan market. As information technology improves, the effect on credit supply and equilibrium interest rates becomes more nuanced and depends on the market segment. The results offer a supply-side explanation for the growth of unsecured lending.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Konstantinos Serfes","Kejia Wu","Panagiotis Avramidis"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107338","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3d5573fec63a9d4e","title":"Discretizing Unobserved Heterogeneity","abstract":"We study discrete panel data methods where unobserved heterogeneity is revealed in a first step, in environments where population heterogeneity is not discrete. We focus on two‐step grouped fixed‐effects (GFE) estimators, where individuals are first classified into groups using kmeans clustering, and the model is then estimated allowing for group‐specific heterogeneity. Our framework relies on two key properties: heterogeneity is a function—possibly nonlinear and time‐varying—of a low‐dimensional continuous latent type, and informative moments are available for classification. We illustrate the method in a model of wages and labor market participation, and in a probit model with time‐varying heterogeneity. We derive asymptotic expansions of two‐step GFE estimators as the number of groups grows with the two dimensions of the panel. We propose a data‐driven rule for the number of groups, and discuss bias reduction and inference.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Stéphane Bonhomme","Thibaut Lamadon","Elena Manresa"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15238","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3d5fa9a3e8283fdc","title":"The value of say on pay","abstract":"We measure the impact of “say on pay” (SoP) – mandatory shareholder votes on top-management compensation – on the market value of voting rights. By exploiting the staggered introduction of SoP across 14 economies, we show that SoP does not automatically increase the value of shareholder voting rights. While stricter, binding SoP reforms increase voting values, looser advisory SoP laws decrease them. Firms that do not pay their CEOs excessively experience the largest decreases in voting values. Voting values also reflect a country’s level of investor protection, past dissent in SoP ballots, and dynamically adjust to changes in managerial compensation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Axel Kind","Marco Poltera","Johannes Zaia"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107311","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3d64fcde79a458fa","title":"Private-public wage gap and return to experience: Role of geography, gender and education","abstract":"Analyses of the static private-public wage premium are available for most industrialized countries and the higher education level in the public sector has been shown to be important. We address three shortcomings in these studies – the return to work experience accumulated in the two sectors, the role of geography, and gender differences. Rich register data for Norway allow for observation of work experience by sector and region, and the dynamic gap resulting from different returns to sector experience can be calculated. When selection on observable and unobservable worker characteristics is controlled for, the estimates show that experience accumulated in the private sector has higher return than public sector experience. Geography matters, and both the static gap and the dynamic experience effect are higher in cities. For the low educated, the additional return to private experience is a city phenomenon only. Gender differences are important for high-educated workers. High-educated women have less additional return to private sector experience than high-educated men and receive the same gain from experience accumulated in cities and in the rest of the country. The dynamic experience effect adds to the static private wage premium, and for high-educated male workers it accounts for about 2/3 of the total wage gap including 10 years of experience.","wordCount":209,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Jørn Rattsø","Hildegunn E. Stokke"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103571","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3d71852bf2d49cda","title":"Does circular economy mitigate the extraction of natural resources? Empirical evidence based on analysis of 28 European economies over the past decade","abstract":"Moving towards a circular economy (CE) has become one of the main strategic initiatives on a global scale in the search for sustainable economic systems. However, the conceptual relationship between sustainable development and the circular economy is a matter of ongoing debate. In particular, the extent to which CE initiatives are contributing to the mitigation of resource extraction seems to be a still unclear topic. This paper investigates the relationship between the extraction of natural resources and the CE, and also analyses the effects of critical socioeconomic drivers such as economic and population growth and economic structures. The analysis is based on a panel data covering 28 European countries during the period 2010–2019. Results confirm that promoting a shift towards more circular economic systems can reduce the extraction of primary resources. However, the mitigating effect of CE initiatives remains rather marginal when compared to the impact of economic growth. Namely, estimates show that the primary resources extracted annually linked to economic growth are roughly four times the resources saved by CE initiatives. The findings provide evidence that the circularity of economic systems should be approached from a systemic perspective that includes both production and consumption as well as waste management. In particular, complementary measures addressing behavioural consumption are needed if we want to achieve a sustainable development.","wordCount":217,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Marco Bianchi","Mauro Cordella"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107607","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3d78bc9b1dd53a0e","title":"Economic freedom, pandemics, and robust political economy","abstract":"What is the relationship, if any, between economic freedom and pandemics? This paper addresses this question from a robust political economy approach. As is the case with recovery from natural disasters or warfare, a society that is relatively free economically offers economic actors greater flexibility to adapt to pandemics. We argue that societies that are more economically free will be more robust to the impact from pandemics, illustrated by shorter time for economic recovery. We illustrate this relationship by testing how initial levels of economic freedom (at the start of the major influenza pandemics of the 20th century) temper contractions and accelerate recoveries for 20 OECD countries.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Rosolino Candela","Vincent Geloso"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12489","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3d7e80b940d1fa16","title":"Financial Literacy and Portfolio Dynamics","abstract":"We match administrative panel data on portfolio choices with survey measures of financial literacy. When we control for portfolio risk, the most literate households experience 0.4% higher annual returns than the least literate households. Distinct portfolio dynamics are the key determinant of this difference. More literate households hold riskier positions when expected returns are higher, they more actively rebalance their portfolios and do so in a way that holds their risk exposure relatively constant over time, and they are more likely to buy assets that provide higher returns than the assets that they sell.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Milo Bianchi"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12605","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3d82d192db9ecc80","title":"Happy voters","abstract":"Empirical models of retrospective voting primarily employ standard monetary and financial indicators to proxy for voters' utility and to explain voters' behavior. We show that subjective well-being explains variation in voting intention that goes beyond what is captured by these monetary and financial indicators. For example, individuals who are satisfied with their life are 1.6% more likely to support the incumbent; by contrast, a 10% increase in family income leads to a 0.18% increase in an individual's support of the incumbent. We use difference-in-differences analysis to identify how voter intention is affected by a negative shock to well-being: the death of a spouse. Individuals who experience the death of a spouse are around 10% less likely than those in the control group to support the incumbent. The results hold even if elected officials' policies (health care, social welfare) cannot reasonably be blamed for the death.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Federica Liberini","Michela Redoano","Eugenio Proto"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.11.013","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3d860ba38b90ee97","title":"Size and value in China","abstract":"We construct size and value factors in China. The size factor excludes the smallest 30% of firms, which are companies valued significantly as potential shells in reverse mergers that circumvent tight IPO constraints. The value factor is based on the earnings-price ratio, which subsumes the book-to-market ratio in capturing all Chinese value effects. Our three-factor model strongly dominates a model formed by just replicating the Fama and French (1993) procedure in China. Unlike that model, which leaves a 17% annual alpha on the earnings-price factor, our model explains most reported Chinese anomalies, including profitability and volatility anomalies.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Jianan Liu","Robert F. Stambaugh","Yu Yuan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.03.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3d89b37170edff3d","title":"Is Inequality of Opportunity Robust to the Measurement Approach?","abstract":"Recent literature has suggested many ways of measuring equality of opportunity. We analyze in a systematic manner the various approaches put forth in the literature to show whether and to what extent different choices matter empirically. Drawing on data for most European countries for 2005 and 2011, we find that the choice between ex‐ante and ex‐post approaches is crucial and has a substantial influence on inequality of opportunity country orderings. Growth regressions also illustrate the potential relevance of conceptual choices.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Xavier Ramos","Dirk Van de gaer"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12448","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3d8ca9dcbfd72392","title":"Economic conditions and portfolio tail risk: A probability-weighted simulation approach","abstract":"Financial market volatility and cross-asset correlations vary substantially over the business cycle, yet widely used resampling methods for tail risk forecasting remain backward-looking and fail to incorporate forward-looking economic conditions. This is a critical limitation because economic conditions fundamentally shape market risk profiles. To address this gap, we propose Forward-looking Economic State Probability-Weighted Simulation (FEWS), a novel and scalable approach that generates the joint return distribution of multiple assets conditional on predicted economic state probabilities. FEWS retains the strengths of resampling methods and adapts simulations to forward-looking macroeconomic conditions, thereby enhancing forecasting accuracy and mitigating the bias–variance trade-off inherent in the choice of sample window length. FEWS also captures key stylized facts of asset returns—such as time-varying volatility and correlations, the leverage effect, and asymmetric tails and dependencies—and allows these features to vary across economic states. Out-of-sample tests on equity portfolios show that FEWS outperforms benchmark methods, delivering more accurate tail risk forecasts and reducing sensitivity to the choice of sample window length.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Lei Jiao","Qing (Clara) Zhou"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101715","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3da4f02bfbbed934","title":"Evolution and the ultimatum game","abstract":"In this paper we review, upgrade, and synthesize existing models from evolutionary game theory, all of which aim at explaining human behaviour in the ultimatum game. Our new and improved versions of Gale et al. (1995), Nowak et al. (2000), and Rand et al. (2013) avoid shortcomings that the original versions have, one of which is that the results in the first and the last are driven by bias in the mutations. We also compare the predictions of these three models with the existing experimental evidence by looking at properties of the distributions of minimal acceptable offers. We find that the observed distributions do not conform to the predictions from Gale et al. (1995), Rand et al. (2013), or any other model in which there is no fitness benefit to rejecting. This does not rule out commitment-based explanations, such as Nowak et al. (2000).","wordCount":144,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Aslıhan Akdeniz","Matthijs van Veelen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.08.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3dae0b85fe3d7deb","title":"Harnessing Emotional Connections to Improve Financial Decisions: Evaluating the Impact of Financial Education in Mainstream Media","abstract":"Responsible financial habits are important for economic welfare, yet it remains unclear whether they can be effectively taught. Entertainment media offers a unique and cost-effective channel of reaching millions of viewers with financial education messages that resonate. This paper uses random and symmetric encouragement methodology to study the economic impact of targeted messages on debt management and gambling scripted in a popular television soap opera in South Africa. The results show treated viewers score significantly higher on financial knowledge, are more likely to borrow from formal sources and for productive purposes, and are less likely to enter into retail credit or gamble. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of mechanisms show strong recall of messages conveyed by the lead character, which supports theories of psychological and emotional influences on decision-making.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Gunhild Berg","Bilal Zia"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw021","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3db03a2feabd420c","title":"The unintended consequences of merit-based teacher selection: Evidence from a large-scale reform in Colombia","abstract":"Teacher quality is a key factor in improving student academic achievement. As such, educational policymakers strive to design systems to hire the most effective teachers. This paper examines the effects of a national policy reform in Colombia that established a merit-based teacher-hiring system intended to enhance teacher quality and improve student learning. Implemented in 2005 for all public schools, the policy ties teacher-hiring decisions to candidates’ performance on an exam evaluating subject-specific knowledge and teaching aptitude. The implementation of the policy led to many experienced contract teachers being replaced by high exam-performing novice teachers. We find that though the policy sharply increased pre-college test scores of teachers, it also decreased the overall stock of teacher experience and led to sharp decreases in students’ exam performance and educational attainment. Using a difference-in-differences strategy to compare the outcomes of students from public and private schools over two decades, we show that the hiring reform decreased students’ performance on high school exit exams by 8 percent of a standard deviation, and reduced the likelihood that students enroll in and graduate from college by more than 10 percent. The results underscore that relying exclusively on specific ex ante measures of teacher quality to screen candidates, particularly at the expense of teacher experience, may unintentionally reduce students’ learning gains.","wordCount":214,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Matí­as Busso","Sebastián Montaño","Juan Muñoz-Morales","Nolan Pope"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105238","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3db6a732f6623cff","title":"Charter High Schools’ Effects on Long‐Term Attainment and Earnings","abstract":"Since their inception in 1992, the number of charter schools has grown to more than 6,800 nationally, serving nearly three million students. Various studies have examined charter schools’ impacts on test scores, and a few have begun to examine longer‐term outcomes including graduation and college attendance. This paper is the first to estimate charter schools’ effects on earnings in adulthood, alongside effects on educational attainment. Using data from Florida, we first confirm previous research (Booker et al., ) that students attending charter high schools are more likely to graduate from high school and enroll in college. We then examine two longer‐term outcomes not previously studied in research on charter schools—college persistence and earnings. We find that students attending charter high schools are more likely to persist in college, and that in their mid‐20s they experience higher earnings.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Tim R. Sass","Ron Zimmer","Brian Gill","T. Kevin Booker"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21913","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3dc4601a5baad5fe","title":"Power Dynamics in Organizations","abstract":"We examine an infinitely repeated game between a principal, who has the formal authority to decide on a project, and a biased agent, who is privately informed about what projects are available. The optimal relational contract speaks to how power is earned, lost, and retained. It shows that entrenched power structures are consistent with optimal administration of power. And it provides new perspectives on why similar firms organize differently, even when those organizational differences lead to persistent differences in performance, and why established firms fail to exploit new opportunities, even when they are publicly observable.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Jin Li","Niko Matouschek","Michael Powell"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150138","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3dd268b686eb779d","title":"Abortion laws and women’s health","abstract":"We examine the impact of progressive and regressive abortion legislation on women's health in Mexico. Following a 2007 reform in the Federal District of Mexico which decriminalised and subsidised early-term elective abortion, multiple other Mexican states increased sanctions on illegal abortion. We observe that the original legalisation resulted in a sharp decline in maternal morbidity, particularly morbidity due to haemorrhage early in pregnancy. We observe small or null impacts on women's health from increasing sanctions on illegal abortion. These results quantify the considerable improvements in non-mortal health outcomes flowing from legal access to abortion.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Damian Clarke","Hanna Mühlrad"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102413","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3e08967e3484cdf2","title":"Revisiting the effects of housing transfer taxes","abstract":"Housing transfer taxes are fiscally important in many countries despite evidence of substantial welfare costs. We argue that the welfare costs are larger than previously thought because previous studies ignore spillovers between treatment and control groups. We analyze the effect of transfer taxes on household mobility using a quasi-experiment arising from a tax reform. To account for spillovers between treatment and control groups, we use a housing market model calibrated to match the mobility rates in our micro data and our quasi-experimental mobility effect estimate. Ignoring the spillovers leads to a 20% underestimation of the negative mobility effect.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Essi Eerola","Oskari Harjunen","Teemu Lyytikäinen","Tuukka Saarimaa"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103367","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3e16f70c65f9d622","title":"150 years of boom and bust: What drives mineral commodity prices?","abstract":"This paper provides long-run evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on commodity prices. I assemble and analyze a new data set of price and production levels of copper, lead, tin, and zinc from 1840 to 2014. Using a novel approach to identification, I show that price fluctuations are primarily driven by demand, rather than supply shocks. Demand shocks affect the price for up to 15 years, whereas the effect of mineral supply shocks persists for up to 5 years. Price surges caused by rapid industrialization are a recurrent phenomenon throughout history. Mineral commodity prices return to their declining or stable trends in the long run.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Martin Stuermer"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051600050x","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3e1d7633fdc052c4","title":"What are the events that shake our world? Measuring and hedging global COVOL","abstract":"Some events impact volatilities of most assets, asset classes, sectors and countries, causing serious damage to investment portfolios. The magnitude of such shocks is defined as global COVOL which is an abbreviation for global common volatility, a broad measure of all types of global financial risk. This paper introduces a statistical formulation of such events as common volatility innovations in both a multivariate volatility and an asset pricing context. Simulations verify the statistical performance of a simple but novel estimator and of a test to detect global COVOL. Two empirical examples show the events that have had the biggest impact on financial markets. The results are useful for portfolio optimization and risk forecasting.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Robert F. Engle","Susana Campos-Martins"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.09.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3e397c4131d3ff9b","title":"Spillovers in education choice","abstract":"This paper examines how skills are shaped by social interactions in families. We show that older siblings causally affect younger sibling's educational choices and early career earnings. We focus on critical course choices in high school and overcome the identification challenges of estimating spillover effects in education by exploiting exogenous variation in choice sets stemming from a pilot program. The pilot induced an essentially random subset of older siblings to choose advanced math-science at a lower cost, while not directly affecting the course choices of younger siblings. We find that younger siblings are 2–3 percentage points more likely to choose math-science if their older sibling unexpectedly could choose math-science at a lower cost. We argue that the main influence of the pilot program on the younger siblings may be attributed to the social influence of the older sibling. Spillovers are strongest among closely spaced siblings, in particular brothers, and they have a lasting impact on the career outcomes of younger brothers. We argue that competition is likely one of the driving forces behind younger siblings conforming to their older siblings' choices.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Juanna Schrøter Joensen","Helena Skyt Nielsen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.10.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3e482f9f9f575de5","title":"Visual formats in risk preference elicitation: What catches the eye?","abstract":"We explore the effect of lottery presentation formats on elicitation of risk preferences using a popular probability varying task (Holt & Laury. The American Economic Review 92 (5), 1644–1655. 2002) and a payoff-varying task (Drichoutis & Lusk. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 53 (2), 89–106. 2016). The presentation formats use horizontal bars that vary either the width or height of the bars (or both at the same time) to help subjects in judging how large or small probabilities and monetary amounts are in a given choice set. These graphical formats are compared to a text only format. We complement our choice data with eye tracking data that enriches our structural models with additional information regarding how visual attention varies with the presented information. While we find no statistically significant effects of presentation formats on elicited parameters for risk preferences, we find that eye tracking information not only is associated with preference parameters, but it also changes the inferences with respect to which decision theory better fits the choice data.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Michelle S. Segovia","Marco A. Palma","Jayson L. Lusk","Andreas C. Drichoutis"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-025-09455-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3e4aa5febc62e9ec","title":"Price authority and information sharing with competing supply chains","abstract":"We characterize the degree of price discretion that two competing manufacturers [grant] retailers in a framework where demand is uncertain and privately observed by the retailers, while manufacturers only learn it probabilistically. In contrast with the consolidated vertical contracting literature, we assume that manufacturers cannot use monetary incentives to align the retailers’ incentives to pass on their unverifiable distribution costs to consumers. Our objective is to study how, in this context, an information-sharing agreement according to which manufacturers share their demand information affects prices, profits and consumer surplus. While equilibria with full price delegation never exist, regardless of whether manufacturers share information, partial delegation equilibria may exist with and without the exchange of information. These equilibria feature binding price caps (list prices) that prevent retailers from passing on their distribution costs to consumers, and are more likely to occur when manufacturers exchange demand information than when they do not share this information. Manufacturers profit from exchanging demand information when products are sufficiently differentiated, and retailers’ distribution costs are high enough. Yet, expected prices are unambiguously lower when manufacturers exchange demand information than when they don’t, making the information exchange beneficial to consumers.","wordCount":192,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Enrique J. Andreu","Damien Neven","Salvatore Piccolo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102926","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3e5b6949fd5de488","title":"The New Keynesian Transmission Mechanism: A Heterogeneous-Agent Perspective","abstract":"We present a tractable heterogeneous-agent version of the New Keynesian model that allows us to study the interaction between inequality and monetary policy. Though formulated as a precautionary-saving model à la Huggett–Aiyagari, its reduced form is a two-agent model with a highly concentrated wealth distribution. When prices are sticky and wages flexible, as in the textbook representative-agent model, monetary policy affects the distribution of consumption, but has no effect on output as workers choose not to change their hours worked in response to wage movements. This highlights a transmission mechanism of the textbook model that we find implausible: in response to a monetary stimulus, the representative worker’s labor supply is greatly affected by the profits she receives. First, the lower profits induced by higher wages raise labor supply through a wealth effect and, secondly, the mere presence of profits reduces the negative income effect of a wage rise. When wages are rigid, in contrast, our model exhibits plausible responses of output and hours worked to monetary policy shocks.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Tobias Broer","Niels‐Jakob Hansen","Per Krusell","Erik Öberg"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy060","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3e6048a4e3ad478a","title":"Complementarities in behavioral interventions: Evidence from a field experiment on resource conservation","abstract":"Behavioral policy often aims at influencing behavior by mitigating biases due to, e.g., imperfect information or inattention. We study how this is affected by the simultaneous presence of multiple biases arising from different sources, through a field experiment on resource conservation in an energy- and water-intensive everyday activity (showering). One intervention, shower energy reports, primarily targeted knowledge about environmental impacts; another intervention, real-time feedback, primarily targeted salience of resource use. We find a striking complementarity. While only the latter induced significant conservation effects when implemented in isolation, each intervention became more effective when implemented jointly. This is consistent with predictions from a theoretical framework that highlights the importance of targeting all relevant sources of bias to achieve behavioral change.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Ximeng Fang","Lorenz Göette","Bettina Rockenbach","Matthias Sutter","Verena Tiefenbeck","Samuel Schoeb","Thorsten Staake"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.105028","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3e6582d9464f09d1","title":"Leading to efficient coordination: Individual traits, beliefs and choices in the minimum effort game","abstract":"We consider data from an experiment on the minimum-effort game, repeated over many periods. In each play of the game, each player's belief about the minimum-effort of other players in the group is elicited, in addition to the player's chosen effort level. We find that many agents choose effort levels systematically exceeding their beliefs of others' effort levels. We explain this in terms of such subjects taking the role of “leader” in an attempt to pull the group towards more efficient outcomes. We find that the propensity for leaders to emerge depends on individual traits such as trustfulness and cognitive ability. Furthermore, moving to a superior equilibrium is more likely under certain design features such as conditions relating to the cost of effort and the amount of information available to players.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Francesco Feri","Anita Gantner","Peter G. Moffatt","Dominik Erharter"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.10.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3e6ffdc08c2c6698","title":"A Global Meta-Analysis of the Value of Ecosystem Services Provided by Lakes","abstract":"This study presents the first meta-analysis on the economic value of ecosystem services delivered by lakes. A worldwide data set of 699 observations drawn from 133 studies combines information reported in primary studies with geospatial data. The meta-analysis explores antagonisms and synergies between ecosystem services. This is the first meta-analysis to incorporate simultaneously external geospatial data and ecosystem service interactions. We first show that it is possible to reliably predict the value of ecosystem services provided by lakes based on their physical and geographic characteristics. Second, we demonstrate that interactions between ecosystem services appear to be significant for explaining lake ecosystem service values. Third, we provide an estimation of the average value of ecosystem services provided by lakes: between 106 and 140 USD$2010 per respondent per year for non-hedonic price studies and between 169 and 403 USD$2010 per property per year for hedonic price studies.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Arnaud Reynaud","Denis Lanzanova"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3e733f3438fa973e","title":"The Manipulation of Children’s Preferences, Old-Age Support, and Investment in Children’s Human Capital","abstract":"We consider the link between parents’ influence over the preferences of children, parental investments in children’s human capital, and children’s support of elderly parents. It may pay for parents to spend resources to “manipulate” children’s preferences in order to induce them to support their parents in old age. Since parents invest more in children when they expect greater support, manipulation of child preferences may end up helping children and parents. A new result, which we call the “Rotten Parent Theorem,” demonstrates that if children are altruistic, then even selfish parents will make the optimal investment in their children’s human capital.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Gary S. Becker","Kevin Murphy","Jörg L. Spenkuch"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/683778","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3e7a1ab9c8b0df07","title":"What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?","abstract":"We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect on wage growth and inflation. Controlling inflation will, thus, ultimately require achieving a better balance of labor demand and supply.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Ben Bernanke","Olivier Blanchard"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20230195","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3e8696f781a09227","title":"The impact of cultural orientation towards secrecy on innovation","abstract":"Our empirical analyses, based on a large international dataset of private firms, show that a cultural orientation towards secrecy significantly negatively affects the likelihood of investing in innovation. This finding is robust to a host of concerns and suggests that cultural orientation towards secrecy explains a significant portion of the cross-country variations in private firms’ innovation.","wordCount":56,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Michael Machokoto"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111509","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3e86cfeca33737c8","title":"Multiple equilibria in the context of inspection probabilities depending on firms’ relative emissions","abstract":"This paper presents a model of environmental regulations with firms that are heterogeneous with respect to the cost for reducing emissions to the legally permitted level. Given that the enforcement capacity is limited due to budgetary constraints and that each firm's inspection probability depends on its emissions relative to other firms’ emissions, the likelihood of being punished for violations is endogenously determined and multiple equilibria may therefore arise. Hence, both good outcomes with high compliance rates and bad outcomes with many violations are possible. Multiple equilibria are most likely to emerge at intermediate levels of deterrence and at low permitted emission levels. However, it is generally not straightforward how stricter legislation impacts on equilibrium outcomes, indicating that behavioral expectations among regulated firms are an important factor to consider when adapting enforcement to changes in the law.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Mathias Herzing"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2020.101204","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3ea830c994c66ffb","title":"The historical impact of coal on cities","abstract":"Historically coal has offered both benefits and costs to urban areas. Benefits include coal’s role in fueling industry and thus employment. The primary costs are air pollution and its impact on human health. This paper starts by using a Rosen-Roback style model to examine how differences in local coal availability affect equilibrium city employment. Drawing on the model, the paper surveys papers that examine the net effects of coal on the growth in city population and air pollution on health. The paper then turns to papers that explicitly consider the trade-offs between production benefits and pollution disamenities across space and over time. The paper ends with a discussion of opportunities for future work on coal and cities in historical settings.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Karen Clay","Joshua Lewis","Edson Severnini"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103951","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3eaa9031b5062b23","title":"Endogeneity in panel stochastic frontier models: an application to the Japanese cotton spinning industry","abstract":"We present a panel stochastic frontier model that handles the endogeneity problem. This model can treat the endogeneity of both frontier and inefficiency variables. We apply our method to examine the technical efficiency of Japanese cotton spinning industry. Our results indicate that market concentration is endogenous, and when its endogeneity is properly handled, it has a larger negative impact on the technical efficiency of cotton spinning plants. We find that the exogenous model substantially overestimates efficiency in concentrated markets.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Mustafa U. Karakaplan","Levent Kutlu"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1363861","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-3eab2675d1529db9","title":"The effect of higher-achieving peers on major choices and labor market outcomes","abstract":"This paper investigates how exposure to higher-achieving male and female peers in university affects students’ major choices and labor market outcomes. For identification of causal effects, we exploit the random assignment of students to university sections in compulsory first-year courses. We present two main results. First, studying with higher-achieving peers has no statistically significant or economically meaningful effects on educational choices. Second, we find suggestive evidence that women who have been exposed to higher- achieving male peers end up in jobs in which they are more satisfied.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Jan Feld","Ulf Zölitz"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3eb8093c489954ba","title":"The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors","abstract":"A common view of retail finance is that conflicts of interest contribute to the high cost of advice. Within a large sample of Canadian financial advisors and their clients, however, we show that advisors typically invest personally just as they advise their clients. Advisors trade frequently, chase returns, prefer expensive and actively managed funds, and underdiversify. Advisors' net returns of −3% per year are similar to their clients' net returns. Advisors do not strategically hold expensive portfolios only to convince clients to do the same; they continue to do so after they leave the industry.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Juhani T. Linnainmaa","Brian Melzer","Alessandro Previtero"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12995","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3ecb857af72e889d","title":"Modeling machine learning: A cognitive economic approach","abstract":"We investigate whether the predictions of modern machine learning algorithms are consistent with economic models of human cognition. To test these models we run an experiment in which we vary the loss function used in training a leading deep learning convolutional neural network to predict pneumonia from chest X-rays. The first cognitive economic model we test, capacity-constrained learning, corresponds with an intuitive notion of machine learning: that an algorithm chooses among a feasible set of learning strategies in order to minimize the loss function used in training. Our experiment shows systematic deviations from the testable implications of this model. Instead, we find that changes in the loss function impact learning just as they might if the algorithm was a human being who found learning costly.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Andrew Caplin","Daniel Martin","Philip Marx"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.105970","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3ecec156412bfcc0","title":"Changing the pace of the melting pot: The effects of immigration restrictions on immigrant assimilation","abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of restrictive immigration policies enacted in the US in 1921 and 1924 to explore the effects of immigration restrictions on recent immigrants using full-count US Census data and variation across national origins in the exclusionary policies. Immigrants more affected by the quotas were more likely to become naturalized citizens. Immigrants from countries that subsequently had migration reduced by the Acts were also more likely to marry someone born in the United States. The evidence in this paper, taken together, shows that the Immigrant Exclusion Act hastened the assimilation of already-landed immigrant men and impacted their short and long-run family outcomes.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Jeff Chan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.08.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3ed68a6c069cbbc5","title":"Identifying the effects of migration on parental health: Evidence from left-behind elders in China","abstract":"This study pioneers the application of the New Economics of Labor Migration theory to outline and estimate two opposite effects of labor loss driven by the migration and remittances of adult children on the health of left-behind elderly parents through the changing rural market constraints. We use China's rural household survey data and simultaneous equation econometric techniques to estimate the effects of migration on the physical and mental health of left-behind elders. Results indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a significantly negative effect on the health of left-behind elders, but remittances from migrants can compensate for the adverse effect. This study provides a comprehensive understanding that remittances from migration relax the constraints on household resource allocations in undeveloped rural areas with imperfect market conditions. Overall, left-behind elderly parents benefit from migrant children both physically and mentally. Acknowledgement : Authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support by National Science Foundation of China (Grants: 71673137), Nanjing Agricultural University (Grants: Y0201400037, SKCX2015004), Education department of Jiangsu province (Grant: 2014SJD069), Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), China Center for Food Security Studies at Nanjing Agricultural University, Jiangsu Rural Development and Land Policy Research Institute, and Jiangsu Agriculture Modernization Decision Consulting Center. All remaining errors are ours.","wordCount":208,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Fujin Yi","Chang Liu","Zhigang Xu"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.11.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3edde692823517bf","title":"Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries","abstract":"This paper analyzes productivity growth in seventeen OECD countries over the period 1979-88. A nonparametric programming method (activity analysis) is used to compute Malmquist productivity indexes. These are decomposed into two component measures, namely, technical change and efficiency change. The authors find that U.S. productivity growth is slightly higher than average, all of which is due to technical change. Japan's productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change.","wordCount":75,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Rolf Färe","Shawna Grosskopf","Mary Norris","Zhongyang Zhang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=381591","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3eea58bcd4dba7ae","title":"Labor Market Discrimination against Family Responsibilities: A Correspondence Study with Policy Change in China","abstract":"China shifted its controversial one-child policy (1979–2015) to a two-child policy in 2016. We take advantage of this unexpected policy change and the heterogeneities in the prechange environment to investigate labor market discrimination against expected family responsibilities. In a two-wave correspondence study before and after the policy change, we sent 8,848 fictitious resumes with ages 22–29 in response to online job advertisements. Their gender and only-child/siblinged status were systematically varied. We find that women—but not men—are subject to labor market discrimination for expected family responsibilities. This discrimination worsens with the increase in women’s reproductive age.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Haoran He","Sherry Xin Li","Yuling Han"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719966","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3ef8342d52b9cd42","title":"Reducing False Guilty Pleas and Wrongful Convictions through Exoneree Compensation","abstract":"A great concern with plea bargains is that they may induce innocent individuals to plead guilty to crimes they have not committed. In this article, we identify schemes that reduce the number of innocent pleas without affecting guilty individuals’ plea-bargaining incentives. Large compensations for exonerees reduce expected costs associated with wrongful determinations of guilt in trial and thereby reduce the number of innocent pleas. Any distortion in guilty individuals’ incentives to take plea bargains caused by these compensations can be offset by a small increase in the discounts offered for pleading guilty. Although there are many statutory-reform proposals for increasing exoneree compensation, no one has yet noted this desirable separating effect of compensations. We argue that such reforms are likely to achieve this result without causing losses in deterrence.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Murat C. Mungan","Jonathan Klick"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684686","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3efb5a7cdd415c2d","title":"Intergenerational income mobility and economic freedom","abstract":"Numerous studies have found that income inequality reduces the chances of upward relative mobility (i.e., climbing up the income ladder). However, most of this work ignores the role played by institutional quality (namely, economic freedom) in determining mobility and increasing the individual's set of choices. We fill this gap by empirically testing the direct and indirect (through economic growth) impacts of economic freedom on intergenerational income mobility. We find that economic freedom has both direct and indirect effects on intergenerational income mobility, while income inequality is a strong predictor of downward income mobility. When we incorporate findings about the purely mechanical relationship between inequality and intergeneration income mobility, we find that the legal system and property rights component of economic freedom matters more than inequality. These results suggest that good institutions can increase intergenerational income mobility.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Justin T Callais","Vincent Geloso"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12611","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3efbd39a179b9193","title":"Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth","abstract":"Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession. We show how to use the model to decompose changes in long-run growth into its underlying drivers. At low frequencies, a decline in the growth rate of labor productivity appears to be behind the recent slowdown in GDP growth for both the United States and other advanced economies. When applied to real-time data, the proposed model is capable of detecting shifts in long-run growth in a timely and reliable manner.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Juan Drechsel Antolin-Diaz","Thomas Drechsel","Iván Petrella"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00646","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3efeeaa273456163","title":"Do forest-management plans and FSC certification help avoid deforestation in the Congo Basin?","abstract":"To allow for the production of timber while preserving conservation values, forestry regulations in the Congo Basin have made Forest Management Plans (FMP) mandatory in logging concessions. This paper uses original high-resolution maps of forest-cover changes and official records on the activities of logging concessions to analyze the impact of FMP on deforestation in this region. We apply quasi-experimental and difference-in-difference approaches to evaluate the change in deforestation in concessions managed under an approved FMP. We find that between 2000 and 2010, deforestation was 74% lower in concessions with an FMP compared to others. Building on a theory of change, further analyses revealed that this decrease in deforestation takes time to occur and is highest around communities located in and nearby logging concessions, and in areas close to previous deforestation. These findings suggest that FMP help avoid deforestation by allowing logging companies to rotate cycles of timber extraction, thereby avoiding the overexploitation of areas that were previously logged, and by the better regulation of access to concessions by closing former logging roads to limit illegal activities such as shifting agriculture, hunting and the illegal harvest of timber or fuel-wood.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Isabelle Tritsch","Gwenolé Le Velly","Benoı̂t Mertens","Patrick Meyfroidt","Christophe Sannier","Jean-Sylvestre Makak","Kenneth Houngbedji"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106660","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3f43fb5f3eaa4b27","title":"The spatial impacts of a massive rail disinvestment program: The Beeching Axe","abstract":"This paper investigates the reversibility of the effects of transport infrastructure investments, based on a programme that removed much of the rail network in Britain during the mid-20th century. We find that a 10% loss in rail access between 1950 and 1980 caused a persistent 3% decline in local population relative to unaffected areas, implying that the 1 in 5 places most exposed to the cuts saw 24 percentage points less population growth than the 1 in 5 places that were least exposed. The cuts reduced local jobs and shares of skilled workers and young people.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Stephen Gibbons","Stephan Heblich","Edward W. Pinchbeck"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103691","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3f46f3dd56cc7510","title":"Thinking fast, thinking badly","abstract":"We test for the construct validity of the cognitive reflection test (CRT) by eliciting response times. We find that incorrect answers to the CRT are quicker than correct answers. At the individual level, we classify subjects into impulsive and reflective, depending on whether they choose the incorrect intuitive answer or the correct answer the majority of the time. We show that impulsive subjects complete the test quicker than reflective subjects.","wordCount":70,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Natalia Jiménez","Ismael Rodríguez-Lara","Jean‐Robert Tyran","Erik Wengström"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.10.018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3f58aa4e2e252c52","title":"Resource curse versus resource blessing: New evidence from resource capital data","abstract":"This study aims to investigate the association between natural capital and economic development using panel data comprising a large number of countries across the world for the period 1995–2018. The study accounts for several key drivers of economic development, such as the produced capital, human capital, trade and institutional quality indicators. Our findings demonstrate that the effect flowing from natural capital to economic performance is sizable and positive. The institutional indicators such as the control of corruption, rule of law and government effectiveness play an important role in driving economic growth positively. Overall, we reject the resource curse hypothesis and support the resource blessing hypothesis. The evidence also shows that the combined effect of institutions and resources is not a crucial factor in determining growth. These results are fairly consistent for both developing and developed economies. The study offers important policy implications and adds a new dimension to the empirical literature on the nexus between resource abundance and economic growth by using wealth and capital data.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Chandan Sharma","Sudharshan Reddy Paramati"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106350","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3f5b9faa7bbc3975","title":"Migrants, Ancestors, and Foreign Investments","abstract":"We use 130 years of data on historical migrations to the U.S. to show a causal effect of the ancestry composition of U.S. counties on foreign direct investment (FDI) sent and received by local firms. To isolate the causal effect of ancestry on FDI, we build a simple reduced-form model of migrations: Migrations from a foreign country to a U.S. county at a given time depend on (1) a push factor, causing emigration from that foreign country to the entire U.S., and (2) a pull factor, causing immigration from all origins into that U.S. county. The interaction between time-series variation in origin-specific push factors and destination-specific pull factors generates quasi-random variation in the allocation of migrants across U.S. counties. We find that doubling the number of residents with ancestry from a given foreign country relative to the mean increases the probability that at least one local firm engages in FDI with that country by 4 percentage points. We present evidence that this effect is primarily driven by a reduction in information frictions, and not by better contract enforcement, taste similarities, or a convergence in factor endowments.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Konrad Burchardi","Thomas Chaney","Tarek A. Hassan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy044","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-3f71a57bdbf25747","title":"Gender attitudes in the Arab region – The role of framing and priming effects","abstract":"Most evidence on survey response effects is based in the Western world. We use data from two randomized experiments built into a nation-wide representative household survey in Tunisia to analyze the effects of framing and priming on responses to gender attitudes in the Arab context. Our first experiment shows that questions on attitudes towards decision-making power when framed in an equality frame reduce responses in favor of gender inequality. In our second experiment we find that responses to attitudes towards domestic violence are susceptible to an audio primer. Oral statistical information about the incidence of domestic violence in Tunisia increases disapproval of domestic violence among the male subsample further, but does not affect women. In terms of impact heterogeneity, we find mixed results for treatment interventions interacting with the gender of the interviewer and the interviewer’s perceived religiosity.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Ann‐Kristin Reitmann","Micheline Goedhuys","Michael Grimm","Eleonora Nillesen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102288","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3f754c6abed30f27","title":"The relevance of non-state climate protection activities as motivation for individual climate protection: Results from a framed field experiment","abstract":"Previous studies on leading by example have shown how an actor contributing to a public good first can increase the contribution of following actors in social dilemma situations. This paper empirically examines how leading by example of non-state actors, which are key to the transition to a low-carbon society, affects individual climate protection. Specifically, we consider the causal effect of providing information about the past climate protection activities of two non-state actors on donations for climate protection through an incentivized donation scheme. Based on data from a survey of 671 students, we conducted a framed field experiment using different information treatments about climate protection activities of the university and city of residence of the participants. Although our treatments successfully influence beliefs about the climate protection activities of both non-state actors, these beliefs do not significantly increase the individual contributions to climate protection in either treatment group. The analysis of heterogeneity in treatment effects reveals that informing students about climate protection activities of the city significantly increases climate protection activities among individuals with low prior beliefs about the role of cities in climate protection. In contrast, no such heterogeneity is observed for the university. Finally, individual identification with a non-state actor and environmental attitudes do not significantly moderate the treatment effects. These results contrast somewhat with previous studies on the effectiveness of leading by example measures and suggest that a broader understanding of the leader-follower relationship is needed for non-state actors to effectively promote individual climate protection.","wordCount":246,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Marvin Gleue","Theresa Luigs","Andreas Ziegler"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101473","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3f859d6192eae68a","title":"When food systems meet sustainability – Current narratives and implications for actions","abstract":"The concept of food system has gained prominence in recent years amongst both scholars and policy-makers. Experts from diverse disciplines and backgrounds have in particular discussed the nature and origin of the “unsustainability” of our modern food systems. These efforts tend, however, to be framed within distinctive disciplinary narratives. In this paper we propose to explore these narratives and to shed light on the explicit -or implicit- epistemological assumptions, mental models, and disciplinary paradigms that underpin those. The analysis indicates that different views and interpretations prevail amongst experts about the nature of the “crisis”, and consequently about the research and priorities needed to “fix” the problem. We then explore how sustainability is included in these different narratives and the link to the question of healthy diets. The analysis reveals that the concept of sustainability, although widely used by all the different communities of practice, remains poorly defined, and applied in different ways and usually based on a relatively narrow interpretation. In so doing we argue that current attempts to equate or subsume healthy diets within sustainability in the context of food system may be misleading and need to be challenged. We stress that trade-offs between different dimensions of food system sustainability are unavoidable and need to be navigated in an explicit manner when developing or implementing sustainable food system initiatives. Building on this overall analysis, a framework structured around several entry points including outcomes, core activities, trade-offs and feedbacks is then proposed, which allows to identify key elements necessary to support the transition toward sustainable food systems.","wordCount":257,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Christophe Béné","Peter Oosterveer","Léa Lamotte","Inge D. Brouwer","Stef de Haan","Steven D. Prager","Elise F. Talsma","Colin K. Khoury"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.08.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3f942f35672da0b7","title":"Gender Bias in Teaching Evaluations","abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on gender bias in teaching evaluations. We exploit a quasi-experimental dataset of 19, 952 student evaluations of university faculty in a context where students are randomly allocated to female or male instructors. Despite the fact that neither students’ grades nor self-study hours are affected by the instructor’s gender, we find that women receive systematically lower teaching evaluations than their male colleagues. This bias is driven by male students’ evaluations, is larger for mathematical courses, and particularly pronounced for junior women. The gender bias in teaching evaluations we document may have direct as well as indirect effects on the career progression of women by affecting junior women’s confidence and through the reallocation of instructor resources away from research and toward teaching.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Friederike Mengel","Jan Sauermann","Ulf Zölitz"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx057","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3fae32dcf27e8a72","title":"Urban food policies for a sustainable and just future: Concepts and tools for a renewed agenda","abstract":"In the context of pressing socio-ecological challenges, from poverty and pandemics to climate change, urban food policies are expanding across the globe. The special issue on “Urban food policies for a sustainable and just future” aims to reflect on a decade of work and identify key concepts to deepen and broaden a transformative urban food agenda. This editorial provides an overview of the twelve papers that make up this collection, demonstrating some of the breadth of approaches used to study this phenomenon in different regions of the world, informed by different epistemic traditions and exemplified by diverse case studies such as urban agriculture, street vending, public procurement, spatial planning, city networks or deep explorations of specific urban policy-making processes. Building on this work and the broader literature, in this paper we identify three core turns in the urban food governance scholarship: a shift towards systemic engagement with the food system; increased engagement with scalar complexity; and a growing focus on relational aspects of urban food governance and policy-making dynamics. However, our analysis also points out three key aspects that require further focus for the field to be transformative: a stronger conceptualisation of the urban; a clearer definition and articulation of the nature of governance and policy; and a more engaged focus on issues of power and inequities. To address these gaps, we propose a set of tools in the form of definitions and frameworks to support the unfolding of an urgently needed more just and transformative urban food agenda.","wordCount":249,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Ana Moragues‐Faus","Jane Battersby"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102124","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-3fb4ffd3dc0220aa","title":"Merger and process innovation","abstract":"Denicolò and Polo (2018) show that the result of Federico et al. (2017), i.e., horizontal mergers reduce R&D investments of the merged firms compared to non-cooperation, holds provided the probability of failure in R&D is log-convex in R&D investments. We provide a different reason for innovation raising merger. We show that if firms invest in process innovation, merger may increase R&D investments even if the probability of failure in R&D is log-convex in R&D investments as considered in Federico et al. (2017). We also show that merger may increase expected consumer surplus and expected welfare compared to non-cooperation. Our results are important for antitrust policies.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Arijit Mukherjee"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110366","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-3fbd4d65b683e475","title":"Social Networks, Employee Selection, and Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"We provide a direct empirical test of Montgomery’s 1991 notion that firms hire workers through social ties of productive employees as these workers know others with high unobserved productivity. We focus on coworker networks and show that firms recruit workers with better military draft test scores but shorter schooling when hiring previous colleagues of current employees, suggesting that firms use these networks to attract workers with better qualities in hard-to-observe dimensions. Incumbent workers’ abilities predict the incidence, abilities, and wages of linked entrants. These results suggest that firms rely on the ability density of the studied networks when setting entry wages.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Lena Hensvik","Oskar Nordström Skans"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686253","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3ff515848e203687","title":"An Index Measuring State Capacity, 1789–2018","abstract":"This paper contributes to the literature on state capacity by developing a method that yields an index of state capacity with far more comprehensive data coverage across time and countries than has been possible previously. Unlike narrower measures of fiscal capacity or legal capacity, the index is more comprehensive, using data from the Varieties of Democracy dataset on fiscal capacity, a state's control over its territory, the rule of law, and the provision of public goods used to support markets. Like the previous literature, it demonstrates that the historical prevalence of warfare predicts state capacity. Several exercises are performed to demonstrate the validity of the index in measuring state capacity.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Colin O’Reilly","Ryan Murphy"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12411","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-3ffe53307af6f03d","title":"“Green” steel investments in the EU: Pie in the sky?","abstract":"The steel industry accounts for approximately 7%–8% of global carbon dioxide emissions. To address this, several initiatives aim to establish carbon-neutral steel production by replacing coal with hydrogen derived from fossil-free electricity. These projects, however, depend on substantial state subsidies, raising questions about their economic viability, especially under comprehensive carbon policies, such as those outlined in the EU’s Fit-for-55 package. Our analysis employs a cost–benefit framework grounded in general equilibrium theory, which explicitly considers the direct and indirect effects of policies on primary and secondary markets, as well as broader economic interdependencies. By integrating the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) into this framework, we provide a rigorous evaluation of the social desirability of hydrogen-based steel production. Our findings, based on a case study of a large-scale plant in northern Sweden, indicate significant social losses, with potentially far-reaching implications for similar projects across the EU. We might see a da capo of the 1970s European steel crisis.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Per‐Olov Johansson","Bengt Kriström"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101494","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40054e69c1c41f03","title":"Efficient risk sharing and separation","abstract":"This paper extends the model of risk sharing with limited commitment to feature separation. Partners face idiosyncratic income and match quality shocks, share risk subject to limited commitment, and separate whenever they are better off doing so. We characterise analytically the sets of shock realisations where constrained-efficient separations occur and the dynamics of consumption while the risk-sharing partnership continues. The separation probability typically jumps as parameter values change continuously, and an additional inefficient equilibrium emerges. A key reason is complementarity between risk sharing and staying together today and in the future. Income inequality affects consumption inequality via its effect on separations, and consumption inequality can optimally exceed income inequality for any history of income realisations. Both partial risk sharing and separation are relevant for many applications, including the interaction between partners in a household and countries in an economic union.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Árpád Ábrahám","Sarolta Laczó"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105849","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-401ec3735f640f1a","title":"The paradox of weak ties in 55 countries","abstract":"People find jobs through their social networks using ties of different strengths. Intuitively weak ties might be less useful because people communicate less often with them, or more useful because they provide novel information. Granovetter's early work showed that more job-seekers get help via acquaintances than friends (Granovetter, 1973). However, recent work on job-finding (Gee et al., 2017) shows an apparent paradox of weak ties in the United States: most people are helped through one of their numerous weak ties, but a single stronger tie is significantly more valuable at the margin. Although some studies have addressed the importance of weak ties in job finding within specific countries, this is the first paper to use a single dataset and methodology to compare the importance of weak ties across countries. Here, we use de-identified data from almost 17 million social ties in 55 countries to document the widespread existence of this paradox of weak ties across many societies. More people get jobs where their weak ties work. However, this is not because weak ties are more helpful than strong ties – it is because they are more numerous. In every country, the likelihood of going to work where an individual friend works is increasing – not decreasing – with tie strength. Yet, there is substantial variation in the added value of a strong tie at the margin across these countries. We show that the level of income inequality in a country is positively correlated with the added value of a strong tie, so that individual strong ties matter more when there is greater income inequality.","wordCount":264,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Laura Gee","Jason Jones","Christopher J. Fariss","Moira Burke","James H. Fowler"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.12.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-402c04e49a327504","title":"Tokenomics: Optimal monetary and fee policies","abstract":"We document properties of crypto monetary policies based on a large sample of tokens. We present a dynamic model to determine the optimal issuance and fee policies for issuers. Committing to low future money growth and fees increases profits, and the degree of commitment matters for equilibrium existence. A Ramsey issuer who maximizes profits, after the initial period, makes choices that maximize the utility value of all tokens. We present a model with probabilistic commitment, solve for the steady state in closed form, and show that empirically relevant long-run money growth rates align with very high levels of commitment.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Urban J. Jermann","Haotian Xiang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103808","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-403f0f64353bd403","title":"The effects of recreational marijuana legalization and dispensing on opioid mortality","abstract":"This study documents how the changing legal status of marijuana has impacted mortality in the United States over the past two decades. We use a difference‐in‐difference approach to estimate the effect of medical marijuana laws (MML) and recreational marijuana laws (RML) on fatalities from opioid overdoses, and we find that marijuana access induces sharp reductions in opioid mortality rates. Our research corroborates prior findings on MMLs and offers the first causal estimates of RML impacts on opioid mortality to date, the latter of which is particularly important given that RMLs are far more expansive in scope and reach than MMLs. In our preferred econometric specification, we estimate that RMLs reduce annual opioid mortality in the range of 20%–35%, with particularly pronounced effects for synthetic opioids. In further analysis, we demonstrate how RML impacts vary among demographic groups, shedding light on the distributional consequences of these laws. Our findings are especially important and timely given the scale of the opioid crisis in the United States and simultaneously evolving attitudes and regulations on marijuana use.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Nathan W. Chan","Jesse Burkhardt","Matthew Flyr"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12819","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4043b689599c1eab","title":"Make or Buy: Offshoring of Services Functions in Manufacturing","abstract":"About 40% of employment in manufacturing is in services functions. This paper develops a measure of narrow outsourcing: the matching of services functions that are performed by workers who are inside manufacturing firms to the same services functions that are provided by outside suppliers. Narrow outsourcing is entered into labour demand functions where labour is classified by business functions. The impact of narrow offshoring on manufacturing labour demand is small on average but depends strongly on the complexity of the value chain, the policy environment, and ICT maturity. The IT and R&D functions are most sensitive to offshoring.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09771-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-404691a3069d5f7e","title":"A note on population aging and effectiveness of fiscal policy","abstract":"This paper examines how population aging affects the output effect of a government spending shock by using a panel data of OECD countries. The government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending, and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that population aging affects the output effect of the government spending shock. While in non-aging economies, government spending shock increases output significantly in both short- and medium-terms, in aging economies, output responses are not statistically significant.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Hiroaki Miyamoto","Naoyuki Yoshino"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000607","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-40489009ca96d729","title":"Bias in the effective bid-ask spread","abstract":"The effective bid-ask spread measured relative to the spread midpoint overstates the true effective bid-ask spread in markets with discrete prices and elastic liquidity demand. The average bias is 13%–18% for S&P 500 stocks in general, depending on the estimator used as benchmark, and up to 97% for low-priced stocks. Cross-sectional bias variation across stocks, trading venues, and investor groups can influence research inference. The use of the midpoint also undermines liquidity timing and trading performance evaluations, and can lead non-sophisticated investors to overpay for liquidity. To overcome these problems, the paper proposes new estimators of the effective bid-ask spread.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Björn Hagströmer"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.04.018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-404c1b77b59e6169","title":"Refining public policies with machine learning: The case of tax auditing","abstract":"We study how machine learning techniques can be used to improve tax auditing efficiency using administrative data without the need of randomized audits. Using Italy’s population data on sole proprietorship tax returns and audits, our new approach addresses the challenge that predictions must be trained on human-selected data. There are substantial margins for raising revenue from audits by improving the selection of taxpayers to audit with machine learning. Replacing the 10% least promising audits with an equal number selected by our algorithm raises detected tax evasion by as much as 39%, and evasion that is actually paid back by 29%.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Marco Battaglini","Luigi Guiso","Chiara Lacava","Douglas L. Miller","Eleonora Patacchini"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105847","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-404e20705d7efd14","title":"The stock market effect of air pollution: evidence from China","abstract":"In financial studies, environmental stimuli such as sunshine, temperature, and daylight are often used as proxies for people’s collective mood swings to test their effects on the stock market. China has experienced serious air pollution problems in recent years, and Chinese public awareness of air pollution has soared. In this paper, we use China as a natural experiment to investigate the effect on stock returns of depressed moods induced by air pollution. Daily air-pollution data from 2005 to 2014 are analysed and the results obtained from the empirical research show that a contemporaneous negative and a two-day lagged positive relationship exists between air pollution levels and stock returns over this time period. The relationship is mediated by the influence of air pollution on investment decisions. The results also indicate that the effect is weakened for companies that protect air quality, but no stronger effect is detected for polluting companies. The findings imply that air pollution is a behavioural factor with some connection to stock returns in China.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Qun Li","Chi‐Lu Peng"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1139679","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-406ca22ef4849d91","title":"Meta‐Regression Models and Observational Research","abstract":"Meta‐regression models were originally developed for the synthesis of experimental research where randomization ensures unbiased and consistent estimation of the effect of interest. Most economics research is, however, observational and specification searches may often result in estimates that are biased and inconsistent, for example, due to omitted‐variable biases. We show that if the authors of primary studies search for statistically significant estimates in observational research, meta‐regression models tend to make false‐positive findings of genuine empirical effects. More research is needed to better understand how meta‐regression models need to be specified to help identifying genuine empirical effects in observational research.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Stephan B. Bruns"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12172","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-407b9f20e3ecb7b2","title":"Global food waste across the income spectrum: Implications for food prices, production and resource use","abstract":"There are few examples in the existing literature that address the quantitative linkages between food waste, food security, and environmental sustainability, at global scale. Here we develop a new panel database on household food waste at the national level based on the Energy Balance equation, including adjustments for changes in body weight over time. We use this to characterize the non-linear relationship between per capita income and the share of food availability wasted. By incorporating this relationship into a global partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector (SIMPLE), we develop future trajectories of household food waste. We find that the emerging economies, particularly China and South Asia, are likely to play a key role in determining global food waste at mid-century. We also present several counterfactual scenarios that shed light on the implications for environmental and food security of limiting future growth in food waste. We find that the global impacts of these alternative pathways are greatly enhanced in the context of a more open international trade regime.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Emiliano López Barrera","Thomas W. Hertel"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101874","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-407bdbe680aecc5b","title":"Immigration and Voting for the Far Right","abstract":"Does the presence of immigrants in one's neighborhood affect voting for far right-wing parties? We study the case of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) that, under the leadership of Jörg Haider, increased its vote share from less than 5% in the early 1980s to 27% by the end of the 1990s and continued to attract more than 20% of voters in the 2013 national election. We find that the inflow of immigrants into a community has a significant impact on the increase in the community's voting share for the FPÖ, explaining roughly a tenth of the regional variation in vote changes. Our results suggest that voters worry about adverse labor market effects of immigration, as well as about the quality of their neighborhood. In fact, we find evidence of a negative impact of immigration on “compositional amenities”. In communities with larger immigration influx, Austrian children commute longer distances to school, and fewer daycare resources are provided. We do not find evidence that Austrians move out of communities with increasing immigrant presence.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Martin Halla","Alexander F. Wagner","Josef Zweimüller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx003","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-40843a90bee96ee6","title":"Global political risk and international stock returns","abstract":"Using novel measures of politics-policy uncertainty we document predictable variation in stock market returns across countries. Country characteristics and existing global and local risk factors do not account for such predictability, leading to large abnormal returns up to 15% per annum. We identify a global political risk factor (P-factor) commanding a risk premium of 11% per annum. High political uncertainty countries covary positively with the P-factor, earning higher average returns. Augmenting the global market portfolio with the P-factor significantly reduces pricing errors and improves cross-sectional fit. Politics-policy uncertainty affects returns through both cash-flow and discount rate channels.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Vito Gala","Giovanni Pagliardi","Stavros A. Zenios"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-408c67366985cbb9","title":"The wheel of life? The effect of the abolition of the foundling wheel in nineteenth-century Italy","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of abolishing the foundling wheel ( ruota ) on reproductive decision-making in post-unitary Italy (1863–1882). The ruota was a turning wheel placed on a wall outside foundling homes across Catholic Europe, which offered a means for anonymous infant abandonment. As infant abandonment rates and foundling mortality soared in the nineteenth century, countries began dismantling these systems. Italy mirrored this trend, with provinces abolishing the ruota at different times. We investigate the specific impacts of the ruota abolition on infant abandonment, infant mortality, births, and gender discrimination. To do so, we use a novel longitudinal dataset of Italian provinces and a staggered Difference-in-Difference empirical design. Our findings show a 54.9% decrease in abandonment, a 10.4% decline in infant deaths, and a 4% drop in births after the abolishment of the ruota . This suggests a significant shift in reproductive behavior and family planning in response to policy change.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Giuliana Freschi","Marco Molteni"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101681","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40994a5aed4dce34","title":"Determinants of the Match between Student Ability and College Quality","abstract":"We examine how students of varying abilities sort (and are sorted) into colleges of varying qualities. Our data indicate substantial amounts of both academic undermatch (high-ability students at low-quality colleges) and academic overmatch (low-ability students at high-quality colleges). Student application and enrollment decisions, rather than college admission decisions, drive most deviations from academic assortative matching. Financial constraints, information, and the public college options facing students all affect this sorting, but mainly via college quality rather than the match between ability and quality. More informed students attend higher-quality colleges, even when doing so involves overmatching.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Eleanor Wiske Dillon","Jeffrey A. Smith"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/687523","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-40b2076d76879b4f","title":"The impact of renewable energy use on firm profit","abstract":"Firms buy renewable energy at premiums and report environmental concerns as motivation to do so. The bulk of the literature on environmental corporate social responsibility suggests that this type of behavior even results in higher profit. However, a product-differentiation framework with perfect competition predicts that renewable energy use has no effect on profit. This paper tests this prediction by investigating the relationship between firms' renewable energy use and profit on the basis of panel data for 920 firms over 2014–2018. We do not find evidence for an impact of renewable energy use on profit. Hence, a ‘win-win’ in the form of higher profit and a better environment does not seem to exist. In addition, the results appear to suggest that firms do not have a positive willingness to pay for renewable energy as contribution to the environment. This implies that firms are only willing to contribute to climate-change mitigation through buying renewable energy when this is aligned with the profit-maximization objective.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Daan Hulshof","Machiel Mulder"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104957","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40b7ef2c6bbd092a","title":"Delta-method inference for a class of set-identified SVARs","abstract":"This paper studies Structural Vector Autoregressions that impose sign and/or zero restrictions to set-identify only one shock (e.g., a monetary shock). We make three contributions to the literature. (i) We present an algorithm to compute—for each horizon, each variable, and a fixed vector of reduced-form parameters—the largest and smallest value of the coefficients of the structural impulse-response function. (ii) We provide sufficient conditions under which the largest and smallest value of the structural parameters are directionally differentiable functions of the reduced-form parameters. We show that the derivatives can be conveniently calculated by applying a generalized version of the envelope theorem. (iii) We propose a computationally convenient delta-method confidence interval for the set-identified coefficients of the structural impulse-response function. We present sufficient conditions to guarantee the pointwise consistency in level of the suggested inference approach. To illustrate our results, we use a monetary Structural Vector Autoregression es-timated with monthly U.S. data. We set-identify an unconventional monetary shock that decreases the two-year government bond rate upon impact, but has no effect over the nominal federal funds rate. We impose two additional sign restrictions on the contemporaneous responses of inflation and output. Based on the estimated pa-rameters for this model, we present Monte-Carlo evidence that supports the validity of the delta-method confidence interval.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Bulat Gafarov","Matthias Meier","José Luis Montiel Olea"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.12.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40b8061cb5cfa66b","title":"A Passage to America: University Funding and International Students","abstract":"The number of international undergraduate students at U.S. public research universities increased dramatically over the last two decades, alongside concurrent reductions in state support for universities. We show that these trends are closely connected as public research universities relied on foreign students to cushion the effects of falling appropriations. The growing capacity in emerging economies to pay for a U.S. education provided opportunities for universities to recover revenues from full-fare paying foreign students. Between 1996-2012, we estimate that a 10 percent reduction in state appropriations led to an increase in foreign enrollment of 16 percent at public research universities.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["John Bound","Breno Braga","Gaurav Khanna","Sarah Turner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170620","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-40c6badcadf6b71f","title":"Eliciting utility curvature in time preference","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of alternative assumptions regarding the curvature of utility upon estimated discount rates in experimental data. To do so, it introduces a novel design to elicit time preference building upon a translation of the Holt and Laury method for risk. The results demonstrate that utility elicited directly from choice over time is significantly concave, but far closer to linear than utility elicited under risk. As a result, the effect of adjusting discount rates for this curvature is modest compared to assuming linear utility, and considerably less than when utility from a risk preference task is imposed.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Stephen L. Cheung"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09621-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40cafff3a5c34f9b","title":"Do Black Politicians Matter? Evidence from Reconstruction","abstract":"This paper exploits the history of Reconstruction after the American Civil War to estimate the effect of politician race on public finance. While the effect of black politicians is positive and significant, black officials may be endogenous to electoral preferences for redistribution. I therefore use the number of free blacks in the antebellum era (1860) as an instrument for black political leaders during Reconstruction. Instrumental variables (IV) estimates show that an additional black official increased per capita county tax revenue by $0.20, more than an hour’s wage at the time. The effect was not persistent, however, disappearing entirely once black politicians were removed from office at Reconstruction’s end. Consistent with the stated policy objectives of black officials, I find positive effects of black politicians on land tenancy and black literacy. These results suggest that black political leaders had large effects on public finance and individual outcomes over and above electoral preferences.","wordCount":151,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Trevon D. Logan"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000755","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-40d1a54404ce5148","title":"Exploring the spatial and temporal determinants of gas central heating adoption","abstract":"In order to better understand the potential for both policy and technological improvements to aid carbon abatement, long-term historical information on the time-path of transition from more traditional to cleaner fuels is useful. This is a relatively understudied element of the fuel switching literature in both developed and emerging economies. This research adds to this literature by examing the adoption time-path of network gas as a heating fuel. We merge a unique dataset on gas network roll-out over time, with other geo-coded data and employ an instrumental variables technique in order to simultaneously model supply and demand. Results indicate a non-linear relationship between the proportion of households using gas as their primary means of central heating and the length of time the network has been in place in each area. Proximity to the gas network, peat bogs, and areas which have banned the consumption of bituminous coal also affect gas connections. Variations in socioeconomic and dwelling characteristics at area level can also help explain connections to the gas network. Simulations are then performed to examine how network expansion might affect connections and carbon emissions.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Daire McCoy","John Curtis"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.12.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-40db4e0cc2602679","title":"Financial development, industrialization, the role of institutions and government: a comparative analysis between India and China","abstract":"This research is the first comparative attempt incorporating the role of economic, demographic, sectoral contribution, government and trade in explaining financial development for India and China. Using time-series estimations, we establish that institutional quality and government size impede financial development, whereas urbanization, industrialization and service sector growth help in financial development for both countries. Trade openness also enhances Indian financial development but hinders Chinese financial development. We suggest that the policy advisers should not underestimate the role of urbanization, industrialization and service sector growth in implementing financial development. Finally, we find that the institutions and governments will play a key role for both economies in enhancing finance and growth.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Muhammad Shahbaz","Mita Bhattacharya","Mantu Kumar Mahalik"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1383595","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-40dff1aa0e1d17b3","title":"Torn between two debt types? The role of managerial ability in a firmʼs choice between bank loans and public debt","abstract":"Motivated by the theoretical literature on firms' choice between bank loans and public debt, this paper analyzes whether more able managers choose a higher fraction of public debt. We find that firms with more able managers choose a higher level of public debt. We also find that the use of public debt by more able managers is positively associated with wealth creation for shareholders and negatively associated with bankruptcy risk. Our cross-sectional analyses suggest that this baseline relationship is conditional on a better information environment. We address endogeneity issues in multiple ways and run an extensive array of robustness checks. Overall, our findings are consistent with the prediction that managerial ability mitigates the information monopoly of banks.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Muhammad Kabir","Dewan Rahman","Taher Jamil"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107205","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40e5abc1afd249a4","title":"Geographical proximity to refugee reception centres and voting","abstract":"A number of studies examine the effect of the presence of migrants or refugees on voting behaviour in the same location, overlooking potential interactions between geographical areas. Exploiting unique data on refugee reception centre locations, we provide novel empirical evidence on the geographical spillover effect of refugee premises on voting outcomes in neighbouring municipalities. Our analysis of the 2016 referendum and the 2013 and 2018 general elections demonstrates that proximity to refugee reception centres increases voter turnout and the share of votes for populist parties in Italy, while reducing support for the centre-left. Importantly, the effect varies by municipality population size, per capita taxable income level, former political orientation, and access to broadband internet. Consistent with the hypothesis that opposition parties might have exploited anti-immigration sentiments to influence both referendum and general election ballots, we find that geographical proximity to refugee centres partly contributes to the recent success of populist parties in Italy.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Massimiliano Bratti","Claudio Deiana","Enkelejda Havari","Gianluca Mazzarella","Elena Claudia Meroni"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103290","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40e8505bdd7dd95d","title":"When are tariff cuts not enough? Heterogeneous effects of trade preferences for the least developed countries","abstract":"Poor countries export a remarkably narrow range of products. To what extent have trade preferences targeted to the least developed countries (LDCs) changed this situation? We study a large set of recent reforms to the LDC trade preferences offered by OECD countries. Leveraging trade policy variation by importer, exporter, product and year, we show that tariff reductions have increased the prevalence of positive trade flows. However, new flows have been far more likely to emerge in cases with previous ‘export experience’, i.e. where countries already exported the same product to another OECD country, or exported a related product to the same importer. So this wave of tariff cuts for LDCs has resulted in an extension of existing patterns of trade rather than wider export diversification.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Fabien Forge","Jason Garred","Kyae Lim Kwon"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103971","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-40f6ff627725f564","title":"On the macroeconomic and wealth effects of unconventional monetary policy","abstract":"This paper focuses on the macroeconomic and wealth effects of unconventional monetary policy. To this end, we estimate a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (B-SVAR) using U.S. monthly data for the post-Lehman Brothers' collapse period. We show that a positive shock to the growth rate of central bank reserves does not have a substantial impact on industrial production or consumer prices. However, it also gives a strong boost to asset prices, which is larger in magnitude for stock prices than for housing prices. Thus, unconventional monetary policy typically operates via portfolio-rebalancing effects. A VAR counterfactual exercise confirms the role of the shocks to the growth rate of central bank reserves in explaining the dynamics of the variables included in the system, especially in the case of asset prices. Finally, additional empirical assessments uncover an important change in the conduct of monetary policy from “standard” to “exceptional” times and the suitability of our model to capture such a structural transformation.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Fredj Jawadi","Ricardo M. Sousa","Raffaella Traverso"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000292","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-41142268b83d19ba","title":"Reasoning about others' reasoning","abstract":"Recent experiments suggest that level-k behavior is often driven by subjects' beliefs, rather than their binding cognitive bounds. But the extent to which this is true in general is not completely understood, mainly because disentangling ‘cognitive’ and ‘behavioral’ levels is challenging experimentally and theoretically. In this paper we provide a simple experimental design strategy (the ‘tutorial method’) to disentangle the two concepts purely based on subjects' choices. We also provide a ‘replacement method’ to assess whether the increased sophistication observed when stakes are higher is due to an increase in subjects' own understanding or to their beliefs over others' increased incentives to reason. We find evidence that, in some of our treatments, the cognitive bound is indeed binding for a large fraction of subjects. Furthermore, a significant fraction of subjects do take into account others' incentives to reason. Our findings also suggest that, in general, level-k behavior should not be taken as driven either by cognitive limits alone or beliefs alone. Rather, there is an interaction between own cognitive bound and reasoning about the opponent's reasoning process. These findings provide support to more subtle implications of the EDR model (Alaoui and Penta, 2016a) than those which were previously tested, and show that the EDR framework is a useful tool for analyzing and understanding the complex interaction of cognitive abilities, incentives, and strategic reasoning. From a broader methodological viewpoint, the tutorial and replacement methods have broader applicability, and can be used to study the beliefs-cognition dichotomy and higher order beliefs effects in non level-k settings as well.","wordCount":256,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Larbi Chrifi‐Alaoui","Katharina A. Janezic","Antonio Penta"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105091","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-412a816fb5072fbe","title":"Governance Under Common Ownership","abstract":"Conventional wisdom is that diversification weakens governance by spreading investors too thinly. We show that, when investors own multiple firms (“common ownership”), governance through both voice and exit can strengthen—even if the firms are in unrelated industries. Under common ownership, informed investors have flexibility over which assets to sell upon a liquidity shock. They sell low-quality firms first, thereby increasing price informativeness. In a voice model, investors’ incentives to monitor are stronger since “cutting and running” is less profitable. In an exit model, managers’ incentives to work are stronger since the price impact of investor selling is greater.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Alex Edmans","Doron Levit","Devin Reilly"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy108","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-41398c13006f11f5","title":"Do urban wage premia reflect lower amenities? Evidence from Africa","abstract":"In most developing countries, wages are substantially higher in cities than in rural areas. One possible explanation is that the higher wage levels of urban areas are offset by lower non-monetary amenities. This paper draws on new high-resolution evidence to document how non-monetary amenities vary between urban and rural areas within 20 Sub-Saharan African countries. We focus on measures of public goods, crime and pollution. We find that in almost all countries, and for almost all measures, the quality of amenities is at least as high in cities as in rural areas. This finding casts doubt on the hypothesis that urban wage premia in the developing world represent a compensation for lower amenities.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Douglas Gollin","Martina Kirchberger","David Lagakos"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103301","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-413b569ee56d3f22","title":"Dynamic markets for lemons: Performance, liquidity, and policy intervention","abstract":"We study nonstationary dynamic decentralized markets with adverse selection in which trade is bilateral and prices are determined by bargaining. Examples include labor markets, housing markets, and markets for financial assets. We characterize equilibrium, and identify the dynamics of transaction prices, trading patterns, and the average quality in the market. When the horizon is finite, the surplus in the unique equilibrium exceeds the competitive surplus; as traders become perfectly patient, the market becomes completely illiquid at all but the first and last dates, but the surplus remains above the competitive surplus. When the horizon is infinite, the surplus realized equals the static competitive surplus. We study policies aimed at improving market performance, and show that subsidies to low quality or to trades at a low price, taxes on high quality, restrictions on trading opportunities, or government purchases may raise the surplus. In contrast, interventions like the Public–Private Investment Program for Legacy Assets reduce the surplus when traders are patient.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Diego Moreno","John Wooders"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1631","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-41424be6866c3576","title":"Efficiency–equity trade-off in the Irish carbon tax: A CGE investigation of mixed revenue recycling schemes","abstract":"The literature shows that earmarking carbon tax revenues to reduce other distortionary taxes can mitigate the tax’s adverse economic implications, whereas transferring revenues directly to households can reduce the tax’s negative equity implications. This paper employs a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to examine the inherent efficiency–equity trade-off in Irish carbon tax revenue recycling (RR). We analyse pure RR schemes, where total carbon tax revenues are allocated either to increased household transfers or to tax rate reductions and mixed schemes, which combine these two. The findings show that all tax reduction RR options can reduce emissions while increasing gross domestic product and welfare (creating a double dividend), but they also increase inequality. However, when sales tax reductions are combined with household transfers, increased efficiency and equity can be found, resulting in a triple dividend. This paper contributes to the literature by directly investigating the efficiency–equity trade-offs in detailed mixed RR schemes. From a policy perspective, we conclude that mixed RR options generate better outcomes as the government can directly balance efficiency and equity outcomes.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Kelly de Bruin","Aykut Mert Yakut"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106705","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4148b12f603540ef","title":"Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World","abstract":"A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level data set that contains information about the productivity—both before and after climate change—of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26 percent reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust. Since the value of output in our 10 crops is equal to 1.8 percent of world GDP, this corresponds to about one-sixth of total crop value.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Arnaud Costinot","Dave Donaldson","Cory B. Smith"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684719","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-414cb85481541379","title":"The impact of climate policy on fossil fuel consumption: Evidence from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)","abstract":"Climate policies such as carbon taxes or cap-and-trade programs are increasingly used to reduce emissions. In the United States, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) cap-and-trade program is used to reduce emissions. In this paper, I use detailed state-level data to estimate the impact of RGGI on coal and natural gas consumption in the electric-power industry. I find the program directly caused coal and natural gas phase-outs within regulated states. Specifically, the program decreased coal and natural gas consumption for electricity generation by 73% and 30%, respectively, within regulated states. However, in nearby, un-regulated states, I find an increase in natural-gas consumption of 237% and a decrease in coal consumption of 7%. As a result, the program reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 4.8 million tons annually in regulated states, but increased carbon dioxide emissions by 3.5 million tons in unregulated states. I also find the program decreased the efficiency of coal-fired and gas-fired plants, which reduces the program's effectiveness for lowering emissions. However, overall, the program reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 1.3 million tons per year.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Jingchi Yan"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105333","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-41526947880895ca","title":"Best practices in replication: a case study of common information in coordination games","abstract":"Recently, social science research replicability has received close examination, with discussions revolving around the degree of success in replicating experimental results. We lend insight to the replication discussion by examining the quality of replication studies. We examine how even a seemingly minor protocol deviation in the experimental process (Camerer et al. in Science 351(6280):143–1436, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf0918 ), the removal of common information, can lead to a finding of “non-replication” of the results from the original study (Chen and Chen in Am Econ Rev 101(6):2562–2589, 2011). Our analysis of the data from the original study, its replication, and a series of new experiments shows that, with common information , we obtain the original result in Chen and Chen (2011), whereas without common information , we obtain the null result in Camerer et al. (2016). Together, we use our findings to propose a set of procedure recommendations to increase the quality of replications of laboratory experiments in the social sciences.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Roy Chen","Yan Chen","Yohanes E. Riyanto"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09658-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4161fcf6838472b3","title":"Forecasting realized volatility of crude oil futures with equity market uncertainty","abstract":"This paper examines whether the equity market uncertainty (EMU) index contains incremental information for forecasting the realized volatility of crude oil futures. We use 5-min high-frequency transaction data for WTI crude oil futures and develop six heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models based on classical HAR-type models. The empirical results suggest that EMU contains more incremental information than the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for forecasting the realized volatility of crude oil futures. More importantly, we argue that EMU is a non negligible additional predictive variable that can significantly improve the 1-day ahead predictive accuracy of all six HAR-type models, and improve the 1-week ahead forecasting performance of the HAR-RV, HAR-RV-J, HAR-RSV, HAR-RV-SJ models. These findings highlight a strong short-term and a weak mid-term predictive ability of EMU in the crude oil futures market.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Fenghua Wen","Yupei Zhao","Minzhi Zhang","Chunyan Hu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1619023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-41708f29374d8d99","title":"A framework for evaluating reproducibility and replicability in economics","abstract":"We propose a framework for evaluating reproducibility and replicability in economics. Reproducibility is defined as testing if the results of an original study can be reproduced using the same data and replicability is defined as testing if the results of an original study hold in new data. We further divide reproducibility and replicability studies into five types: computational reproducibility, recreate reproducibility, robustness reproducibility, direct replicability and conceptual replicability. In addition to this typology we propose indicators to measure the degree of reproducibility and replicability in both individual studies and for a group of studies.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Anna Dreber","Magnus Johannesson"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13244","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-4183274d2345329d","title":"Financing renewables in the age of falling technology costs","abstract":"Cost of renewable energies have dropped, approaching wholesale power price levels. As a result, the role of renewable energy policy design is shifting – from covering incremental costs towards facilitating risk-hedging. An analytical model of the financing structure of renewable investment projects is developed to assess this effect und used to compare different policy design choices: contracts for differences, sliding premia, fixed premia and a setting without dedicated remuneration mechanism. The expected benefit for electricity consumers from reduced risk and financing costs is approximated at the example of a 2030 scenario for Germany. Policies like sliding premia, previously evaluated as providing low-risk investment environments, provide for less risks hedging, when technology costs approach wholesale power prices. Contracts for differences provide in all scenarios the most effective hedge for investors against power prices uncertainty, enabling low-cost financing and reducing costs for consumers, while also hedging electricity consumers against high power prices.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Karsten Neuhoff","Nils May","Jörn C. Richstein"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101330","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4192c2af98060194","title":"Exchange rate dynamics and consumption of traded goods","abstract":"A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) aggregator of domestic and foreign goods is assumed in virtually any model of international macroeconomics with multiple traded goods. If baskets of traded goods are allocated optimally across countries, the CES aggregator links trade flows to exchange rate dynamics implying a condition for optimal allocation of individual traded goods across countries. The condition holds irrespectively of assumptions about preferences or endowment processes. This paper analyzes optimal allocation of traded goods empirically for 9 OECD countries and finds that it is mostly rejected by data. The finding casts doubts on the ability of international macroeconomic models to jointly explain dynamics of consumption and exchange rates.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Maxym Chaban"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103602","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-419a47cc5b73fd58","title":"The hidden wealth of English dynasties, 1892–2016","abstract":"Using individual‐level records of all wealth‐at‐death in England from 1892 to 1992, together with new estimates of the wealth‐specific rate of return on wealth, this study estimates a plausible minimum level of the amount of inherited wealth that is hidden. Elites conceal around 35 per cent of their inheritance. Among dynasties, this hidden wealth, independent of declared wealth, predicts appearance in the Offshore Leaks Database of 2013–16 and is correlated with postcode house‐value in 1999 and Oxbridge attendance in 1990–2016. Accounting for hidden wealth eliminates about 28 per cent, at minimum, of the observed decline of the top 1 per cent wealth‐share, at the dynastic level, over the past century. Findings show 9 077 dynasties that are hiding £8.9 billion.","wordCount":120,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Neil Cummins"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13120","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-41bd38b1783a89b3","title":"Human capital investment and perceived automation risks: Evidence from 16 countries","abstract":"Robotics and artificial intelligence are transforming jobs and career paths, and equipping workers with the ability to gain new skills has become a strategic policy imperative. Previous studies showed that investment in human capital depends on locus of control, risk preferences and impatience. Yet in a changing world of work, the perceived risk of being replaced by a machine or an algorithm might also affect workers’ decisions to gain new professional skills. Using novel survey data from representative samples of working individuals in 16 countries, this paper shows that fear of automation is positively associated with workers’ intentions to invest in training activities outside their workplace. This effect is robust to controlling for other known behavioural traits. We also show that fear of automation reinforces the effect that internal locus of control exerts on retraining intentions.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Stefania Innocenti","Marta Golin"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.12.027","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-41c297eb9b105792","title":"Trade sanctions and the stability of climate coalitions","abstract":"We investigate whether trade sanctions against outsiders can foster climate cooperation in self-enforcing international environmental agreements if outsiders retaliate. We find a threshold effect: In small coalitions incentives to be a coalition member decrease whereas in large coalitions they increase. Thus, trade sanctions can be an effective tool in climate policy only after a sufficiently large climate coalition has already been formed. Even if larger stable coalitions are achieved with trade sanctions, implications for global welfare can be adverse, because additional trade distortions trade off with the environmental gains. We identify the USA and Europe as essential members of stable coalitions if outsiders retaliate.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Achim Hagen","Jan Schneider"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102504","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-41d22e043b4c8c38","title":"Arresting the Sword of Damocles: The transition to the post-Malthusian era in Denmark","abstract":"The Malthusian model is the subject of a fierce debate within economic history. Although the positive causal relationship postulated from living standards to population growth is relatively uncontroversial for preindustrial societies, this cannot be said for the other key relationship, diminishing returns due to fixed supplies of land. We argue that Denmark, which was characterized by extreme resource and environmental constraints until the final decades of the eighteenth century, provides an ideal setting for testing whether any society was ever truly Malthusian. We employ a cointegrated VAR model on Danish data from 1731 to 1800, finding evidence for diminishing returns until ca. 1775. Yet this relationship disappears in the late-eighteenth century, consistent with an increasing pace of technological progress and the emergence of what Unified Growth Theory has termed the “post-Malthusian” era.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Peter Sandholt Jensen","Maja Uhre Pedersen","Cristina Victoria Radu","Paul Sharp"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101437","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-41d846172f9010e0","title":"How Does Downstream Firms’ Efficiency Affect Exclusive Supply Agreements?","abstract":"We develop a bilateral monopoly model with a downstream entrant to examine anticompetitive exclusive supply contracts that prevent the upstream supplier from selling inputs to the downstream entrant. When the entrant is more efficient and needs a lesser amount of the input that is produced by the supplier than does the incumbent, the input demand may not increase significantly following the entry. Therefore, the socially efficient entry does not increase the supplier’s profits significantly, which allows the downstream incumbent to deter socially efficient entry through an exclusive supply contract. This result holds even in the simplest framework, which is composed of a single seller, buyer, and entrant.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Hiroshi Kitamura","Noriaki Matsushima","Misato Sato"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09932-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-41e79e13a8a1a0b2","title":"Modeling the evolution of expectations and uncertainty in general equilibrium","abstract":"We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward‐looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational and conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that they do not know. Therefore, agents take into account that their beliefs will evolve according to what they will observe. This framework accommodates both gradual and abrupt changes in beliefs and allows for an analytical characterization of uncertainty. We use a prototypical Real Business Cycle model to illustrate the methods.","wordCount":94,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Francesco Bianchi","Leonardo Melosi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12174","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-41fceb9d21066d4e","title":"Measuring Business Cycles Intra‐Synchronization in US: A Regime‐switching Interdependence Framework","abstract":"This paper proposes a Markov‐switching framework to endogenously identify periods where economies are more likely to (i) synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases, and (ii) follow independent business cycles. The reliability of the framework is validated with simulated data in Monte Carlo experiments. The framework is applied to assess the time‐varying intra‐country synchronization in the US. The main results report substantial changes over time in the cyclical affiliation patterns of US states, and show that the more similar the economic structures of states, the higher the correlation between their business cycles. A synchronization‐based network analysis discloses a change in the propagation pattern of aggregate contractionary shocks across states, suggesting that the US has become more internally synchronized since the early 1990s.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Danilo Leiva‐León"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12157","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-420f1a7c19b44f0b","title":"Energy security and economic stability: The role of inflation and war","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of energy security risk (ESR) on economic stability. Using multiple global datasets, we provide empirical evidence from an unbalanced panel of 68 countries spanning over a period from 1980 to 2021. Our results indicate that high ESR reduces GDP growth rate (GDPG) from a global perspective. In robustness tests, this effect remains valid across several specifications based on non-U.S. samples, national income-level, alternative measure of economic stability, and a set of endogeneity tests based on propensity score matching estimation. Countries with pre-existing low GDPG mainly suffer from heightened energy insecurity. Numerous country-specific institutional quality estimates. Finally, the damaging impact of ESR worsens during years of high inflation, geopolitical risk and acts, as well as of escalated war threats. We encourage international collaborations to develop a more sustainable energy system, which enhances the security of energy supply and the stability of economy.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Hasanul Banna","Ashraful Alam","Xihui Haviour Chen","Ahmed W. Alam"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106949","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-420f4de79b8080bc","title":"Collective defense by common property: Evidence from the income privatization of kibbutz","abstract":"Despite the increasing prevalence of armed conflicts, there is limited understanding of how individuals secure their lives under external threats. This paper addresses this gap by examining the impact of armed conflicts on the income privatization of kibbutzim in Israel. Originally equal-sharing settlements, kibbutzim have started paying differential salaries to members. A model is developed, arguing that equal-sharing enhances collective defense in conflict environments, whereas income privatization occurs as external threats diminish. Using rainfall at nearby refugee camps, instrumental variable estimates show that local conflicts explain most of the variation in the timing of income privatization.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Liang Diao"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.04.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4212b0c3c1343fb1","title":"Terror per Capita","abstract":"Studies on the correlates of terrorism usually analyze total numbers of attacks or victims per country. However, what we may ultimately care about in terms of policy recommendations is the likelihood of any individual being subject to the respective phenomenon. Thus, we propose and explore a simple alternative measure of terrorism: terror per capita . Studying terror per capita across 162 countries from 1970–2015, the associated correlates differ substantially in terms of sign, levels of statistical significance, and magnitude from those when analyzing total terror. We illustrate two cases in point, serving as proof of concept. First, democracy, often associated with more total terror, emerges as a marginally negative predictor of terror per capita. Second, a larger share of Muslims in society is associated with a positive and statistically significant link to total terror, but emerges as a negative predictor of terror per capita. We find similar changes in sign and statistical relevance for GDP per capita and language fractionalization as correlates of terrorism. Depending on the policy question, studying terror per capita can greatly enhance our understanding of terrorism drivers, especially when analyzing data across countries with vastly differing population sizes.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Michael Jetter","David Stadelmann"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12369","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-422f6f4e338a6f12","title":"Calling from the outside: The role of networks in residential mobility","abstract":"Using anonymised cellphone data, we study how social networks shape residential mobility decisions. Individuals with few local contacts are more likely to change residence. Movers strongly prefer neighbourhoods where they already know more people nearby. Contacts matter because proximity to them is valuable and makes attractive locations more enjoyable. They also provide hard-to-find local information and reduce frictions, especially in home-search. Effects are not driven by similar people being more likely to be friends and move between certain locations. Recently-moved and more central contacts are particularly influential. With age, proximity to family gains importance over friends.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Konstantin Büchel","Maximilian von Ehrlich","Diego Puga","Elisabet Viladecans‐Marsal"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103277","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4238d270ae4789c3","title":"Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy","abstract":"We examine the effect of policy uncertainty on firms' strategy of corporate social responsibility (CSR). During uncertain times, firms strategically increase their commitment to CSR causes. Policy uncertainty is positively associated with CSR performance regardless of the estimation method. CSR strategy can substitute for lobbying when firms attempt to manage policy uncertainty. Improved CSR performance can reduce firms' exposure to policy uncertainty which indicates that CSR commitment can deliver insurance-like benefits. The findings highlight the value of CSR commitments during uncertain times.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Daoju Peng","Gönül Çolak","Jianfu Shen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102376","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-425a7d3357c84b94","title":"Foreign direct investment and knowledge diffusion in poor locations","abstract":"We use plant level census data to identify spillovers from FDI in Ethiopia's manufacturing sector. Spillovers are identified by comparing changes in total factor productivity (TFP) among domestic plants in districts where a large greenfield foreign plant produces and districts where FDI in the same industry was licensed but not yet operational. Over the four years starting with the year of the FDI opening, the TFP of domestic plants is 11 percent higher in treated districts, employment in domestic plants increases and more domestic plants open. We describe mechanisms for knowledge diffusion using a plant level technology transfer survey. One third of Ethiopian plants are linked to FDI through labor sharing, supply chains and competition. Technology upgrading is most common as a reaction to competition in output markets and observation and imitation of FDI in the same line of business. Other benefits include enhanced managerial practices and knowledge about exporting.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Girum Abebe","Margaret McMillan","Michel Serafinelli"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","N"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102926","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-425d5777f69ebe10","title":"Price asymmetries and the path dependence of market power: Evidence from the U.S. airline industry","abstract":"This paper uncovers price asymmetries across oligopolistic and monopolistic markets that are seemingly identical in structure but different in competitive history. This is done by identifying “quiet life” markets that have not (yet) experienced a change in structure, and “non-quiet life” markets that have been disrupted by firm entry and/or exit. Using a long panel dataset from the U.S. airline industry, we find that quiet life duopolies price significantly higher than duopolies that come about by entry in monopoly, and that quiet life monopolies price significantly lower than monopolies that come about by exit in duopoly. We show that the path towards a particular market structure matters for the determination of prices and explore several mechanisms that likely explain the price asymmetries, including engagement in anticompetitive behaviour, adjustment behaviour to market structure changes, and the cost heterogeneity of competing firms.","wordCount":140,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Yannis Kerkemezos","Enrico Pennings","Bas Karreman","Peran van Reeven"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102921","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-425fc17b07037b11","title":"Determinants and consequences of SME insolvency risk during the pandemic","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic posed an existential threat to European SMEs' financial resilience with significant consequences for the European economy. Using unique firm-level data on SME financing conditions, this paper proposes a new insolvency risk measure based on survey responses. We show that SME insolvency risk increased, on average, by approximately 21% during the pandemic. Problems with finding customers and the cost of production and labor contributed notably to SME insolvency risk during this period, and SMEs also saw deterioration in their access to finance. Innovation worked as a mitigating factor during the pandemic, and innovative SMEs were more resilient, maintained their client base, and saw favorable access to bank lending. Our results point out that SME innovation can prevent the number of insolvencies from rising significantly in the long term.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Orçun Kaya"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105958","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-42703e362d9de543","title":"The economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in Australia","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the Australian firm investment activity. We find a significant positive relationship between the EPU and the firm investment over 2002 to 2017 period. Our main results remain unchanged after several endogeneity tests. Further analysis reveals that this relationship becomes pronounced for firms if their headquarters located in small states, firms with more tangible assets, higher operating cash flows and cash holdings, higher profits and leverage, but firms with fewer dividend payouts. Our paper sheds lights on the unique attribute of the impact of the EPU on the Australian firm investment activity and offers important policy and managerial implications.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Ji Wu","Jing Zhang","Shiyu Zhang","Liping Zou"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1710454","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-42708b0a25851771","title":"Labor shortage and early robotization in Japan","abstract":"In this paper, we study how labor shortage contributed to the rise of robots in the early stage of robotization in Japan from 1978 to 1991. Based on the newly digitalized industry-level data on labor shortage, we demonstrate that the shortage of unskilled factory workers is strongly positively associated with subsequent robot adoption. We also find the effect of the shortage of skilled factory workers on robot adoption to be negative, suggesting a potentially complementary role of skilled labor in the process of automation.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Liuchun Deng","Minako Fujio","Xin Lin","Rui Ota"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111404","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4274e24408e887a4","title":"The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing","abstract":"Exploiting geological variation and timing in the initiation of hydraulic fracturing, we find that fracking leads to sharp increases in oil and gas recovery and improvements in a wide set of economic indicators. There is also evidence of deterioration in local amenities, which may include increases in crime, noise, and traffic and declines in health. Using a Rosen-Roback-style spatial equilibrium model to infer the net welfare impacts, we estimate that willingness-to-pay (WTP) for allowing fracking equals about $2,500 per household annually (4.9 percent of household income), although WTP is heterogeneous, ranging from more than $10,000 to roughly 0 across 10 shale regions.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Alexander Bartik","Janet Currie","Michael Greenstone","Christopher R. Knittel"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170487","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-4282554aaa031909","title":"Work-from-home and cities: An elementary spatial model","abstract":"This paper analyzes the urban impacts of hybrid WFH in the simplest possible model, relying on Leontief utility and production functions and other simplifying assumptions. The analysis shows that introduction of WFH raises both the wage and household land consumption (raising worker utility) while shrinking the size of the business district and reducing business land rent. When WFH requires home work space, the city’s overall spatial size increases, with residential rents rising in the suburbs while falling near the center. The decline in business rent and the rotation of the residential rent contour match empirical evidence showing that WFH reduces office-building values and flattens the residential rent gradient.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Jan K. Brueckner"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104086","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-42870a1919371686","title":"Information, market power and welfare","abstract":"We study the market for a risky asset in which traders are heterogeneous both in terms of their value for the asset and the information that they have about this value. Traders behave strategically and use the equilibrium price to extract information that is relevant to them. Due to adverse selection, uninformed traders are less willing than the informed to provide liquidity. We evaluate the impact of a change in the size or composition of the investor population on price informativeness, liquidity and welfare, with applications to the rise of passive investing and the adoption of ESG standards.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Youcheng Lou","Rohit Rahi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105756","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4294a84f216c835d","title":"Digital tools and agricultural market transformation in Africa: Why are they not at scale yet, and what will it take to get there?","abstract":"Despite enthusiasm for the potential of digital innovations to transform agricultural markets in Africa, progress made thus far has been limited to small-scale experiments that often fail to scale up. Realizing the full potential of digital innovations – tools, technologies, applications, and services – in Africa requires not just further development of these solutions at meaningful scales, but also more nuanced evidence from both successful and unsuccessful scaling efforts. This paper reviews the conceptual and empirical evidence on the transformative potential of digital innovations for African agricultural markets with an in-depth examination of solutions that have been rolled out to date in the continent. Specifically, the review addresses the following questions: (i) how can digital innovations improve the functioning of agricultural markets in Africa? (ii) what explains the apparent disconnect of most pilots to scale-ups? (iii) what is required to realize their full potential? and (iv) what are the emerging risks and opportunities associated with digital innovations for agricultural marketing? Although our review of the landscape and literature on market-focused digital innovations in Africa identifies several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation. In particular, there is a need for more systematic assessments of both successes and failures at both the piloting and scaling stages.","wordCount":212,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Gashaw Tadesse Abate","Kibrom A. Abay","Jordan Chamberlin","Yumna Kassim","David J. Spielman","Martin Paul Jr. Tabe‐Ojong"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102439","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-429b84f21952c9c7","title":"Reputation and adverse selection: theory and evidence from eBay","abstract":"How can a marketplace introduce mechanisms to overcome inefficiencies caused by adverse selection? In this article, I use a unique data set that follows eBay sellers to show that reputation is a major determinant of price variations. I develop a model of sellers' dynamic behavior where sellers have heterogeneous qualities unobservable by buyers. Using reputation as a signal of quality, I structurally estimate the model to uncover buyers' utility and sellers' costs and underlying qualities. I show that removing the reputation mechanism increases low‐quality sellers' market share, lowers prices, and consequently reduces sellers' profit by 66% and consumer surplus by 35%.","wordCount":101,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Maryam Saeedi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12297","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-42afa9af48262c41","title":"Corruption in Procurement and the Political Cycle in Tunneling: Evidence from Financial Transactions Data","abstract":"We provide evidence of corruption in allocation of public procurement and assess its efficiency. Firms with procurement revenue increase tunneling around regional elections, whereas neither tunneling of firms without procurement revenue, nor legitimate business of firms with procurement exhibits a political cycle. Data are consistent with the corruption channel—cash is tunneled to politicians in exchange for procurement contracts—and inconsistent with alternative channels. Using the strength of correlation between procurement revenue and tunneling around elections as a proxy for local corruption, we reject the “efficient grease” hypothesis: in more corrupt localities, procurement contracts go to unproductive firms.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Maxim Mironov","Ekaterina Zhuravskaya"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140188","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-42b6f33e4e1a5d3c","title":"A Comparison of the Wholesale Model and the Agency Model in Differentiated Markets","abstract":"We compare the wholesale model and the agency model that characterise a vertical relation in a bilateral duopoly framework. Results suggest that the agency model may be regarded as an example of retailer power resale price maintenance and provide an economic view of why restraints of this kind should be evaluated under the rule of reason. While competition is more likely to be undercut under the agency model, relative to the wholesale model, the agency model benefits consumers by offering relatively lower retail prices and greater demand.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Liang Lu"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-017-9583-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-42bba919e382ad1e","title":"The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions","abstract":"Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untreated control group are measured in a follow‐up survey six months later. We find that as firms become more uncertain, they reduce their prices, employment, and investment, their sales decline, and they become less likely to invest in new technologies or open new facilities. These ex post effects of uncertainty are similar to how firms say they would respond to higher uncertainty when asked hypothetical questions.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Saten Kumar","Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Olivier Coibion"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta21004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-42bdbdcf10cfa1be","title":"Does climate change affect bank lending behavior?","abstract":"We examine how banks adjust credit supply in areas with higher exposure to climate risks by utilizing the province-level air pollution and loan growth data of a large emerging market, Turkey, following the Paris Agreement in 2015. Our results show that banks limit their credit extension to more polluted provinces in the post-agreement interval, implying that banks consider climate change-related risks and adjust their credit provisioning accordingly. Our baseline findings are intact against a myriad of robustness checks. We also find that the shift in the climate risk-credit provisioning nexus is asymmetric depending on the levels of air pollution.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Çağlayan Aslan","Erdem Bulut","Oğuzhan Çepni","Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110859","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-42c6dac2d51ba0ed","title":"Avoiding the Ask: A Field Experiment on Altruism, Empathy, and Charitable Giving","abstract":"If people enjoy giving, then why do they avoid fund-raisers? Partnering with the Salvation Army at Christmastime, we conducted a randomized field experiment placing bell ringers at one or both main entrances to a supermarket, making it easy or difficult to avoid the ask. Additionally, bell ringers either were silent or said “please give.” Making avoidance difficult increased both the rate of giving and donations. Paradoxically, the verbal ask dramatically increased giving but also led to dramatic avoidance. We argue that this illustrates sophisticated awareness of the empathy-altruism link: people avoid empathic stimulation to regulate their giving and guilt.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["James Andreoni","Justin M. Rao","Hannah Trachtman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691703","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-42dd152c9bfbf02b","title":"Information acquisition and processing skills of institutions and retail investors around information shocks","abstract":"Using audit trail data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange, this paper compares the trading skill of institutions and individuals around information shocks. We find suggestive evidence that institutions possess information acquisition and processing advantages over individuals. Specifically, net buying done by institutions (individuals) prior to and during jumps positively (negatively) predicts future intraday returns. This predictive relation is strongest among stocks with high limits to arbitrage and a limited information environment. Moreover, domestic institutions generate higher trading profits than foreign institutions. Unlike domestic institutions, the information acquisition and processing advantages of foreign institutions prevail across different sources of price jumps, such as prescheduled events and macroeconomic news. Prescheduled events and news lessen the information disadvantages for individuals.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Scott Fung","Khaled Obaid","Shih‐Chuan Tsai"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101495","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-42de412c2611f719","title":"Labor Markets and Poverty in Village Economies","abstract":"We study how women's choices over labor activities in village economies correlate with poverty and whether enabling the poorest women to take on the activities of their richer counterparts can set them on a sustainable trajectory out of poverty. To do this we conduct a large-scale randomized control trial, covering over 21,000 households in 1,309 villages surveyed four times over a seven-year period, to evaluate a nationwide program in Bangladesh that transfers livestock assets and skills to the poorest women. At baseline, the poorest women mostly engage in low return and seasonal casual wage labor while wealthier women solely engage in livestock rearing. The program enables poor women to start engaging in livestock rearing, increasing their aggregate labor supply and earnings. This leads to asset accumulation (livestock, land, and business assets) and poverty reduction, both sustained after four and seven years. These gains do not crowd out the livestock businesses of noneligible households while the wages these receive for casual jobs increase as the poor reduce their labor supply. Our results show that (i) the poor are able to take on the work activities of the nonpoor but face barriers to doing so, and, (ii) one-off interventions that remove these barriers lead to sustainable poverty reduction.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Oriana Bandiera","Robin Burgess","Narayan Das","Selim Gulesci","Imran Rasul","Munshi Sulaiman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx003","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-42dfaf3f974bd33c","title":"Stock return ignorance","abstract":"Optimal stock investment decisions rely on assessments of the distribution of expected returns. Using a representative sample, we find over half the US population cannot answer simple questions on expected stock returns. Respondents who are unable to make any return prediction, who cannot answer questions on the distribution of expected returns, or who reveal unlikely distributional beliefs participate less in the stock market and have smaller stock investments. However, overoptimistic investors are more likely to participate in the stock market and have larger stock investments. These results persist after controlling for financial literacy, intelligence, education, and demographics. People who are ignorant about stock return distribution are more likely to invest in equities if they have higher levels of trust. Therefore, trust can substitute for cognition as a factor positively associated with individuals’ propensity to invest.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Yulia V. Veld‐Merkoulova","Chris Veld"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-42e7d25d262cb527","title":"The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples’ Fertility Decisions","abstract":"This paper analyzes the effects of job displacement on fertility using Finnish longitudinal register data. We focus on couples where one spouse has lost a job due to a plant closure and follow them for several years before and following the job loss. The results show that female job loss decreases fertility. For every 100 displaced females, there are three fewer children born. Male job loss has no impact on fertility despite resulting in a stronger decrease in family income than female job loss. This indicates that the income effect is not the mechanism through which job displacement influences fertility.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Kristiina Huttunen","Jenni Kellokumpu"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/683645","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-42f900ec9188bc4a","title":"Squeezing the bears: cornering risk and limits on arbitrage during the ‘British bicycle mania’, 1896–8","abstract":"This article examines the extent to which Victorian investors were short‐sale constrained. While previous research suggests that there were relatively few limits on arbitrage, this article argues that short‐sales of stocks outside the Official List were indirectly constrained by the risk of being cornered. Evidence for this hypothesis comes from three corners in cycle company shares which occurred in 1896–7, two of which resulted in substantial losses for short‐sellers. Legal efforts to retrieve funds lost in a corner were unsuccessful, and the court proceedings reveal a widespread contempt for short‐sellers, or ‘bears’, among the general public. Consistent with the hypothesis that these episodes affected the market, this study's findings show that cycle companies for which cornering risk was greater experienced disproportionately lower returns during a subsequent crash in the market for cycle shares. This evidence suggests that, under certain circumstances, short‐selling shares in Britain prior to 1900 could have been much riskier than previously thought.","wordCount":155,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["William Quinn"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12847","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-42fbebaeb2873fe8","title":"Inferring Carbon Abatement Costs in Electricity Markets: A Revealed Preference Approach Using the Shale Revolution","abstract":"This paper examines how carbon pricing would reduce emissions in the electricity sector. Both carbon prices and cheap natural gas reduce the historic cost advantage of coal plants. The shale revolution resulted in unprecedented variation in natural gas prices that we use to estimate the potential near-term effects of carbon prices. Estimates imply that a price of $20 ($70) per ton of CO 2 would reduce emissions by 5 (10) percent. Carbon prices are most effective at reducing emissions when natural gas prices are low, but have negligible effects when gas prices are at levels seen prior to the shale revolution.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Joseph Cullen","Erin T. Mansur"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150388","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-431300bafc9b9a3b","title":"CEO personality traits, strategic flexibility, and firm dynamics","abstract":"Reexamining CEO personality traits from a real options theory perspective, we suggest that the firm's strategic flexibility can be worsened by CEO conscientiousness and neuroticism. We use a measure of strategic flexibility as the firm's ability to take advantage of heightened volatility, which then results in superior stock returns. Our results suggest that strategic adaptability is impeded by rigid planning, resistance to change (conscientiousness) and lack of emotional stability (neuroticism). For firms that experience a decrease in volatility, the opposite holds. In line with trait activation theory, our results imply that the effect of specific CEO personality traits on firm dynamics and performance is contingent and context-specific. Our findings are economically significant and have important implications concerning CEO selection and management.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Tom Aabo","Christos Pantzalis","Jung Chul Park","Lenos Trigeorgis","Jesper Wulff"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102524","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4315c3ff91500956","title":"An anatomy of urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"This paper analyzes urbanization patterns across Sub-Saharan Africa circa 2015 using a dartboard algorithm and high-resolution gridded population data to delineate urban areas and urban cores, cities and their population centers, and towns. Key empirical regularities are presented regarding urban hierarchies and internal city structures. Urbanization rates often exceed official ones and vary considerably across countries from 29.4% in Gabon to 78.1% in Kenya. Within countries, delineated areas show great size diversity following Zipf's law, without much urban primacy. Cities’ land area increases slightly less proportionally to their population. Monocentric population patterns with declining population density toward peripheries largely dominate, though some large multicentric extended, not necessarily capital, cities exist.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Pierre‐Philippe Combes","Clément Gorin","Shohei Nakamura","Mark Roberts"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104152","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4316c37ee028262c","title":"The micro elasticity of substitution and non‐neutral technology","abstract":"This article provides evidence on the micro capital‐labor elasticity of substitution and the bias of technology. Using data on US manufacturing plants, I find several facts inconsistent with a Cobb‐Douglas production function, including large, persistent variation in capital shares. I then estimate the elasticity using variation in local wages, and several instruments for them, for identification. Estimates of the substitution elasticity using all plants range between 0.3 and 0.5, with similar estimates across industries. I use these elasticity estimates to measure labor augmenting productivity, and find that labor augmenting productivity is highly persistent, and correlated with exports, size, and growth.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Devesh Raval"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12265","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43257046887a6cfe","title":"Willingness-to-volunteer and stability of preferences between cities: Estimating the benefits of stormwater management","abstract":"Urbanization strains existing stormwater systems, yielding high flood rates, degraded urban aquatic habitat, and low water quality in lakes and rivers. Cities increasingly rely on green infrastructure stormwater solutions that can be maintained in part by volunteers. This paper uses a choice experiment survey in two major U.S. cities – Chicago, Illinois and Portland, Oregon – to estimate the benefits of stormwater management improvement in terms of stated willingness to pay (WTP) money and willingness to volunteer (WTV) time. We find that stormwater management can produce large bundles of benefits. Estimates of WTP are largely (though not comprehensively) stable across cities, but WTV for several benefits is higher in Portland. Finally, while people are willing to volunteer time for some amenities consistent with time valued at 1/3 the average wage rate, a person's WTV time is not correlated with their own wage rate and people appear to gain positive utility from volunteering.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Amy W. Ando","Catalina Londoño Cadavid","Noelwah R. Netusil","Bryan Parthum"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102274","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-434e76e1dd90287f","title":"Diversification of geographic risk in retail bank networks: evidence from bank expansion after the Riegle‐Neal Act","abstract":"The 1994 Riegle‐Neal Act (RN) removed restrictions on branch‐network expansion for banks in the United States. An important motivation was to facilitate geographic risk diversification (GRD). Using a factor model to measure banks' geographic risk, we show that RN expanded GRD possibilities in small states, but only some large banks took advantage. Using our measure of geographic risk and an empirical model of branch‐network choice, we identify preferences toward GRD separately from other factors possibly limiting network expansion. Counterfactuals show that risk negatively affected bank value but was counterbalanced by economies of density/scale, reallocation/merging costs, and local market power concerns.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Vı́ctor Aguirregabiria","Robert Clark","Hui Wang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12136","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4350cac0482cbeb9","title":"Caution, Drivers! Children Present: Traffic, Pollution, and Infant Health","abstract":"We investigate the effects of automobile congestion on ambient air pollution and local infant mortality rates using data from California spanning 2002 to 2007. Constructing instrumental variables (IV) using the relationship of traffic, weather conditions, and pollutants, we show that particulate matter, even at modern levels, has large marginal effects on weekly infant mortality rates, especially for premature or low birthweight infants. We also find suggestive evidence of large effects for carbon monoxide, though results are imprecise. Finally, we check estimate sensitivity to nonclassical measurement error in local pollution and show that our IV results are robust to such concerns.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Christopher R. Knittel","Douglas L. Miller","Nicholas Sanders"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00548","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43537c824d9b94a9","title":"Vocational Training for Disadvantaged Youth in Colombia: A Long-Term Follow-Up","abstract":"We evaluate the long-term impacts of a randomized Colombian training and job placement program. Following the large short-term effects, we now find that the program effects persist, increasing formal participation and earnings contributions to social security and working in larger firms. By using a large administrative source we are also able to establish that the program improved both male and female labor market outcomes by a similar amount—a result that was not apparent with the smaller evaluation sample. The results point to a cost-effective approach to reducing informality and improving labor market outcomes in the long run.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Orazio Attanasio","Arlen Guarín","Carlos Medina","Costas Meghir"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150554","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43618821253461b0","title":"Do shortages forecast aggregate and sectoral U.S. stock market realized variance? Evidence from a century of data","abstract":"Recent global economic and political events have made clear that shortages are a key factor driving macroeconomic and financial market developments. Against this backdrop, we studied the forecasting value of shortages for monthly U.S. stock market realized variance (RV) at the aggregate and sectoral level using data spanning the period 1900 − 2024 and 1926 − 2023 (for most sectors), respectively. To this end, we considered linear and non-linear statistical learning estimators. When we used linear estimators (OLS and shrinkage estimators), we did not find evidence that aggregate and disaggregate shortage indexes have predictive value for subsequent market or sectoral RVs. In contrast, when we used random forests, a nonlinear nonparametric estimator, we detected that aggregate and disaggregate shortage indexes improve forecast accuracy of market and sectoral RVs after controlling for realized moments (realized leverage, realized skewness, realized kurtosis, realized tail risks). We then decomposed RV into a high, medium, and low frequency component and found that the shortages indexes are correlated mainly with the medium and low frequencies of RV. Finally, we found that the predictive value of shortages for RV was larger in the 1980s and 1990s than in later parts of our sample period.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Matteo Bonato","Rangan Gupta","Christian Pierdzioch"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101726","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-436aab1ffeb4edf9","title":"Prison as a Criminal School: Peer Effects and Criminal Learning behind Bars","abstract":"We investigate peer effects on crime-specific recidivism using register data for the entire Danish prison population. We find that inmates do not acquire new criminal capital in prison (no introductory peer effects). For certain types of crimes, we find that inmates strengthen their criminal capital in prison because of exposure to offenders in their field of specialization (reinforcing peer effects). Our results accord with a theory of crime-specific knowledge transmission and network building: we find reinforcing peer effects for crimes that require specific capital, planning, and networks (for example, drug crimes, theft, burglary, and fencing) and/or are more effective when committed in groups (for example, threats and vandalism). Reinforcing peer effects are especially strong because of exposure to more experienced criminals. By contrast, we find that exposure to offenders in the same specialization deters inmates from recidivism for violent offenses, including sexual offenses and robbery.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Anna Piil Damm","Cédric Gorinas"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706820","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-436be8d960053e74","title":"Do innovation-intensive firms mitigate their valuation uncertainty during bad times?","abstract":"In times of crisis, innovation and entrepreneurship can be considered as a path out of valuation uncertainty of firms. All types of innovation output, however, may not have a similar impact across different firm size and sectors during bad times. Specifically, financially less-constrained (high leverage) innovative firms could be valued higher or experience less uncertainty in their performance. By considering the innovation intensity and leverage in pre- and post-2008 financial crisis periods, and using firm-level quarterly data from listed firms in the UK during 2000–2014, we find that leveraged firms can achieve greater valuation and mitigate any valuation uncertainty in the post-crisis period if they are knowledge- or high-technology intensive. In terms of size effect, although leverage distorts market valuation of large UK firms, the impact is positive for SMEs that are innovation intensive. Finally, in terms of sectoral effect, firms within manufacturing and services with leverage have benefitted from R&D and patenting activities during the post-crisis period, but not in the pre-crisis period. This also gets revealed when we classify all firms into high-tech and low-tech sectors, implying that firms in the high-tech sectors with debt dependence have benefitted favorably in terms of higher valuation and lower uncertainty in the post-crisis period, not firms in the low-technology sectors, reflecting further the role of technological intensity in firm valuation.","wordCount":219,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Ilayda Nemlioglu","Sushanta Mallick"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.06.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4371ff53f88e9cd0","title":"Product Scope Adjustment to the China Shock: Competition at Home and Abroad","abstract":"This paper investigates the plant-level product scope adjustment to rising import penetration at home and to growing export competition abroad, both of which have been originating from the China trade shock. Using Korean plant-level datasets with detailed product shipment and export information between 2006 and 2018, we uncover an under-explored channel such that export competition in foreign markets, in addition to import penetration in the domestic market, contracts a product scope of plants. Particularly, the product churning effects are observed only for exporting plants. We further dissect the contraction in product scope for exporters and find that: (i) export competition dampens the creation of new products; while in contrast, (ii) import penetration precipitates the destruction of existing products; moreover, (iii) the import-induced product destruction reallocates their resources towards core products. We propose disproportionate importance of domestic market, a forward-looking aspect of product creation, and competition-induced creative destruction as potential drivers of these results.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Jaerim Choi","Seong-In Hong","Jung Hur","Manho Kang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.04.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-43826f2159c78fa3","title":"Discrimination, Social Capital, and Financial Constraints: The Case of Viet Nam","abstract":"This paper examines the relationship among gender, social capital, and access to finance of micro, small, and medium enterprises in the manufacturing sector in Viet Nam. Our dataset is from the 2011, 2013, and 2015 results of the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise Survey in Viet Nam. Using the Heckman technique to control for sample selection bias, the estimates do not provide evidence for discrimination against female-owned enterprises in the formal lending market. Specifically, female entrepreneurs have a higher probability of getting a loan and they pay lower interest rates in comparison with male entrepreneurs. No discrimination in formal credit markets may arise from the preference for informal loans over formal loans as entrepreneurs tend to borrow informal loans before applying for formal ones. Further analysis shows that social capital could facilitate loan applications: firms that have a closer relationship with government officials and other business people can get loans of longer duration.","wordCount":153,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Tho Pham","Oleksandr Talavera"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4386a9f0a1a65a01","title":"When starting with the most expensive option makes sense: Optimal timing, cost and sectoral allocation of abatement investment","abstract":"This paper finds that it is optimal to start a long-term emission-reduction strategy with significant short-term abatement investment, even if the optimal carbon price starts low and grows progressively over time. Moreover, optimal marginal abatement investment costs differ across sectors of the economy. It may be preferable to spend $25 to avoid the marginal ton of carbon in a sector where abatement capital is expensive, such as public transportation, or in a sector with large abatement potential, such as the power sector, than $15 for the marginal ton in a sector with lower cost or lower abatement potential. The reason, distinct from learning spillovers, is that reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires investment in long-lived abatement capital such as clean power plants or public transport infrastructure. The value of abatement investment comes from avoided emissions, but also from the value of abatement capital in the future. The optimal levelized cost of conserved carbon can thus be higher than the optimal carbon price. It is higher in sectors with higher investment needs: those where abatement capital is more expensive or sectors with larger abatement potential. We compare our approach to the traditional abatement-cost-curve model and discuss implications for policy design.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Adrien Vogt‐Schilb","Guy Meunier","Stéphane Hallegatte"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4387b090d2290948","title":"Clans and calamity: How social capital saved lives during China's Great Famine","abstract":"This paper examines the role of social capital, embedded in kinship-based clans, in disaster relief during China's Great Famine (1958–1961). Using a county-year panel and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the rise in the mortality rate during the famine years is significantly less in counties with a higher clan density. Analysis using a nationally representative household survey corroborates this finding. Investigation of potential mechanisms suggests that social capital's impact on famine may have operated through enabling collective action against excessive government procurement. These results provide evidence that societal forces can ameliorate damages caused by faulty government policies in times of crisis.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Jiarui Cao","Yiqing Xu","Chuanchuan Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","P","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102865","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4399aaf0e03ae5e5","title":"Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity","abstract":"We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics, and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate on a single sparse model, but on a wide set of models that often include many predictors.","wordCount":59,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Domenico Giannone","Michèle Lenza","Giorgio E. Primiceri"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17842","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-439c8d9323e19de1","title":"Learning-through-Survey in Inflation Expectations","abstract":"When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibility that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these “learning-through-survey” effects are large for household inflation expectations. Repeat survey participants generally have lower inflation expectations and uncertainty, particularly if their initial uncertainty was high. Consequently, repeat participants may be more informed about or attentive to inflation. This has important implications: for example, inflation expectations of new participants are more influenced by oil prices, and estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are lower for new participants.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Gwangmin Kim","Carola Binder"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200387","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43a9b5717b8ad1f0","title":"Wealth, Health, and Child Development: Evidence from Administrative Data on Swedish Lottery Players","abstract":"We use administrative data on Swedish lottery players to estimate the causal impact of substantial wealth shocks on players’ own health and their children’s health and developmental outcomes. Our estimation sample is large, virtually free of attrition, and allows us to control for the factors conditional on which the prizes were randomly assigned. In adults, we find no evidence that wealth impacts mortality or health care utilization, with the possible exception of a small reduction in the consumption of mental health drugs. Our estimates allow us to rule out effects on 10-year mortality one sixth as large as the cross-sectional wealth-mortality gradient. In our intergenerational analyses, we find that wealth increases children’s health care utilization in the years following the lottery and may also reduce obesity risk. The effects on most other child outcomes, including drug consumption, scholastic performance, and skills, can usually be bounded to a tight interval around zero. Overall, our findings suggest that in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets, causal effects of wealth are not a major source of the wealth-mortality gradients, nor of the observed relationships between child developmental outcomes and household income.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David Cesarini","Erik Lindqvist","Robert Östling","Björn Wallace"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw001","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43b2bb052325ab20","title":"Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy","abstract":"This paper investigates the role of the rise in services in the narrowing of gender gaps in hours and wages in recent decades. We highlight the between-industry component of differential gender trends for the United States and propose a model economy with goods, services, and home production, in which women have a comparative advantage in producing services. The rise of services, driven by structural transformation and marketization of home production, raises women's relative wages and market hours. Quantitatively, the model accounts for an important share of the observed trends in women's hours and relative wages.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["L. Rachel Ngai","Bárbara Petrongolo"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150253","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43b4cc375a14976e","title":"Internal Geography, Labor Mobility, and the Distributional Impacts of Trade","abstract":"I develop a spatial-equilibrium model to quantify the distributional impacts of international trade in an economy with intranational trade and migration costs. Focusing on China, I find that international trade increases both between-region inequality among workers with similar skills and within-region inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, with the former accounting for 75 percent of the overall inequality increase. Ignoring spatial frictions will underestimate trade’s impact on the overall inequality and overestimate its impact on the aggregate skill premium. I further study how internal trade and Hukou reforms affect the domestic economy and the impacts of international trade.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Jingting Fan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43c740e6d9efe368","title":"Leading the unwilling: Unilateral strategies to prevent arctic oil exploration","abstract":"Arctic oil extraction is inconsistent with the 2 °C target. We study unilateral strategies by climate-concerned Arctic countries to deter extraction by others. Contradicting common theoretical assumptions about climate-change mitigation, our setting is one where countries may fundamentally disagree about whether mitigation by others is beneficial. This is because Arctic oil extraction requires specific R&D, hence entry by one country expands the extraction-technology market, decreasing costs for others. This means that, on the one hand, countries that extract Arctic oil gain if others do so as well. On the other hand, as countries may disagree about how harmful climate change is, they may disagree whether an equilibrium where all enter is better or worse than an equilibrium where all stay out. Less environmentally-concerned countries (preferring maximum entry) have a first-mover advantage but, because they rely on entry by others, entry in equilibrium is determined by the preferences of those who are moderately concerned about the environment. Furthermore, using a pooling strategy, an environmentally-concerned country can deter entry by credibly “pretending” to be environmentally adamant, and thus be expected to not follow. A rough calibration suggests a country like Norway, or prospects of a green future U.S. administration, could be pivotal in determining whether the Arctic will be explored.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Justin Leroux","Daniel Spiro"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.08.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-43cb3499bbb293c0","title":"Access to Home Equity and Consumption: Evidence from a Policy Experiment","abstract":"Using unique consumer financial transactions of more than 56,000 consumers, we study the consumption response to a housing policy experiment in Singapore that resulted in a decrease in access to home equity. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we find a significant negative consumption response to the policy shock. Moreover, the consumption response is concentrated in credit card spending and is stronger among individuals with limited access to credit market or with a high precautionary saving motive. These results suggest that a decrease in access to home equity reduces the role of housing as a self-insurance mechanism for consumption smoothing.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sumit Agarwal","Wenlan Qian"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00606","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43d747be1be3c3ed","title":"Watering Down Environmental Regulation in China","abstract":"This article estimates the effect of environmental regulation on firm productivity using a spatial regression discontinuity design implicit in China's water quality monitoring system. Because water quality readings are important for political evaluations and the monitoring stations only capture emissions from their upstream regions, local government officials are incentivized to enforce tighter environmental standards on firms immediately upstream of a monitoring station, rather than those immediately downstream. Exploiting this discontinuity in regulation stringency with novel firm-level geocoded emission and production data sets, we find that immediate upstream polluters face a more than 24% reduction in total factor productivity (TFP), and a more than 57% reduction in chemical oxygen demand emissions, as compared with their immediate downstream counterparts. We find that the discontinuity in TFP does not exist in nonpolluting industries, only emerged after the government explicitly linked political promotion to water quality readings, and was predominantly driven by prefectural cities with career-driven leaders. Linking the TFP estimate with the emission estimate, a back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that China's water regulation efforts between 2000 and 2007 were associated with an economic cost of more than 800 billion Chinese yuan.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Guojun He","Shaoda Wang","Bing Zhang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43e3dad5056dc4a5","title":"From twitter to GDP: Estimating economic activity from social media","abstract":"Using all geo-located image tweets shared on Twitter in 2012–2013, I find that the volume of tweets is a valid proxy for estimating GDP at the country level, explaining 78 percent of cross-country variations. I also exploit the geographic granularity of social media posts to estimate and predict GDP at the sub-national level. I find that tweets alone can explain 52 percent of the variation in GDP across cities in the US. Estimates using Twitter data perform on par with the more common night-lights proxy. Furthermore, both indicators seem to capture different aspects of economic activity and thus complement each other.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Agustín Indaco"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103591","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-43e726c1553c5bdd","title":"Modeling the phillips curve in china: A nonlinear perspective","abstract":"This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the inflation–output type of Phillips curve based on a multiple-regime smooth transition regression model using data from China. The empirical results indicate significant nonlinearities in China's Phillips curve. The relationship between inflation and output can be modeled by a four-regime smooth transition regression model in which the responses of inflation to output depend on both inflation and economic growth rates. The inflation–output type Phillips curve may be positively sloped, negatively sloped, or even vertical in the short term, depending on different business cycles. Furthermore, we analyze business cycle fluctuations based on the nonlinear Phillips curve, indicating a coexisting zone of stable inflation rate and rapid growth rate.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Lingxiang Zhang"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000577","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43f5bd7f28f328f2","title":"Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing","abstract":"We offer a general equilibrium analysis of cryptocurrency pricing. The fundamental value of the cryptocurrency is its stream of net transactional benefits, which depend on its future prices. This implies that, in addition to fundamentals, equilibrium prices reflect sunspots. This in turn implies multiple equilibria and extrinsic volatility, that is, cryptocurrency prices fluctuate even when fundamentals are constant. To match our model to the data, we construct indices measuring the net transactional benefits of Bitcoin. In our calibration, part of the variations in Bitcoin returns reflects changes in net transactional benefits, but a larger share reflects extrinsic volatility.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Bruno Biais","Christophe Bisière","Matthieu Bouvard","Catherine Casamatta","Albert J. Menkveld"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13206","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-43f672f1564b4462","title":"How bad is crime for business? Evidence from consumer behavior","abstract":"Understanding how consumers respond to crime offers evidence of how safety perception impacts individuals daily choices and has important implications for economic development of communities. This paper investigates the impact of local crime on subsequent consumer visits to food and entertainment retails using a novel longitudinal dataset with point-specific crime and consumer visit data. We leverage the richness of our data to account for unobserved heterogeneity and time variant confounders through temporal and geographical variation. Our results show that consumers respond more strongly to property and street crimes. The response concentrates on the venue visit decision rather than the intensity of consumption (i.e. duration) in the venue.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Hao Fe","Viviane Sanfelice"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103448","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-43ffffe9c51d893e","title":"On the transmission of guilt aversion and the evolution of trust","abstract":"This paper studies the evolution of trust and trustworthiness by modeling the intergenerational transmission of guilt aversion. The results depend both on features of strategic interaction and about parental transmission. We show that if there is complete information of opponents' traits, independent of parenting style, the share of high-guilt agents in society weakly increases over time, and trust and trustworthiness are maximized. Moreover, when traits are not observable, different levels of guilt always coexist, and trust and trustworthiness might also increase when parents have imperfect empathy in the transmission of traits or if there is homophily in society.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Sebastiano Della Lena","Elena Manzoni","Fabrizio Panebianco"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.09.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-44091140672a869b","title":"From maize to haze: Agricultural shocks and the growth of the mexican drug sector","abstract":"Understanding how economic incentives affect illegal drug production is essential for crafting policies in response to the international drug trade. Policymakers typically face a choice between two strategies: targeting criminal groups via law enforcement, and offering producers incentives to engage in alternate activities. Yet, little is known about how the returns to alternate legal activities affect drug supply. We contribute to this literature by examining how shocks to legal commodity prices affect the drug trade in Mexico. Our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the Mexican maize price stemming from weather conditions in US maize-growing regions, as well as exports of other major maize producers. Using data on over 2200 municipios spanning 1990–2010, we show that lower prices differentially increased the cultivation of both marijuana and opium poppies in municipios more climatically suited to growing maize. We also find impacts on downstream drug-trade outcomes, including drug cartel operations and killings perpetrated by these groups. Our findings demonstrate that maize price changes contributed to the burgeoning drug trade in Mexico, and point to the violent consequences of an expanding drug sector.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Oeindrila Dube","Omar García‐Ponce","Kevin Thom"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12172","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-440ec66c8c5d1617","title":"Migration and Discrimination in Urban China: A Decomposition Approach","abstract":"Currently, about 150 million migrant workers reside in the major Chinese cities, where they are treated like second‐class citizens by the local city governments and denied access to government jobs and welfare entitlements, with large differences existing in their treatment across the cities. In this paper, we use a new and unique dataset of urban natives and rural to urban migrants from 15 different cities in China to document this differential treatment. We apply a relatively new non‐parametric technique, Nopo decomposition, which takes into account differences in the distribution of observable characteristics to decompose the wage gap that exists between the two groups and estimate the extent of discrimination faced by the migrants. Rural‐to‐urban migrants are found to be discriminated in the urban labour market, but to a lesser extent than has been argued in the literature. We also find that a large gap exists between the national legislation on the treatment of migrants on one hand and the implementation and enforcement by city governments on the other, and that this differential treatment helps explain part of the level of discrimination.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Debayan Pakrashi","Paul Frijters"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12245","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44136706e871ae11","title":"Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development","abstract":"This paper estimates the role of agronomic inputs in cereal yield improvements and the consequences for countries' processes of structural change. The results suggest a clear role for fertilizer, modern seeds and water in boosting yields. We then test for respective empirical links between agricultural yields and economic growth, labor share in agriculture and non-agricultural value added per worker. The identification strategy includes a novel instrumental variable that exploits the unique economic geography of fertilizer production and transport costs to countries' agricultural heartlands. We estimate that a half ton increase in staple yields generates a 14 to 19 percent higher GDP per capita and a 4.6 to 5.6 percentage point lower labor share in agriculture five years later. The results suggest a strong role for agricultural productivity as a driver of structural change.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["John W. McArthur","Gordon C. McCord"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-441773b0222e1e25","title":"Weak Markets, Strong Teachers: Recession at Career Start and Teacher Effectiveness","abstract":"How do alternative job opportunities affect teacher quality? We provide causal evidence on this question by exploiting business cycle conditions at career start as a source of exogenous variation in the outside options of potential teachers. Unlike prior research, we directly assess teacher quality with value-added measures of impacts on student test scores, using administrative data on over 30,000 Florida public school teachers. Consistent with a Roy model of occupational choice, teachers entering the profession during recessions are significantly more effective in raising student test scores. Results are supported by robustness tests and unlikely to be driven by differential attrition.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Markus Nagler","Marc Piopiunik","Martin R. West"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705883","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-443e16e6efa7a088","title":"Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model","abstract":"The 2008 financial crisis, and the subsequent global recession, triggered a wide-spread economic and political debate on the proper policy combination to deal with the crisis and to prevent similar ones in the future. Probably, the main dispute has been around the use of fiscal instruments in order to foster growth while keeping public debt under control. The European Union, for instance, endorsed “austerity” measures for fiscal consolidation but has been sharply criticized by several scholars. This paper aims at contributing to the current debate by presenting the outcomes of a computational study performed with the Eurace agent-based model. We set up an experiment with two base policy scenarios, i.e., stability and growth pact and fiscal compact, incrementally enriching them with complementary policies which relax fiscal rigidity and introduce quantitative easing. Results show that budgetary rigour performs well if and only if some mechanisms of fiscal relaxation and monetary accommodation are considered during bad times; thus confirming in a richer and more realistic model setting the fundamental tenet of Keynesian economics about the importance of sustaining aggregate demand during recessions.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Andrea Teglio","Andrea Mazzocchetti","Linda Ponta","Marco Raberto","Silvano Cincotti"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.016","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-444a4ced3753b584","title":"Do international students learn foreign preferences? The interplay of language, identity and assimilation","abstract":"Every year millions of students study at foreign universities, swapping one set of cultural surroundings for another. This may reveal whether measured preferences are fixed or flexible, whether they can be altered in the short run by moving country, or learning a new language. We disentangle these influences by measuring international students’ preferences. For Chinese students in the UK (who arrived up to five years previously) we randomise a survey’s language. We add reference groups in each country, doing the survey in the relevant language. Simple comparisons provide a causal estimate of language’s effect and observational estimates of differences by country, location and nationality. We find language has a large causal effect on a range of survey responses. The effect size is similar to differences by country or nationality (at 0.4 standard deviations), and larger than differences by location (at 0.1 standard deviations). Assimilation theories predict any movement in measured preferences for Chinese students in the UK would be towards those of UK students, even if they may be small. We do not find this. In Mandarin, Chinese students hardly differ from those in Beijing. Yet in English, they are not close to either Chinese students in Beijing or British students in the UK. This can be explained by a model of identity priming with monocultural subjects. For Chinese students in the UK, speaking English reduces the pull of a Chinese frame without increasing the pull of a British one. International students do not so much learn foreign preferences as learn to ignore old ones. Our reliance on mostly stated preferences enables a rich dataset covering many domains; future work is needed to see if such large effects are also found for a wide range of revealed preferences.","wordCount":288,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Paul Clist","Ying‐yi Hong"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102658","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4459765a01aa23c2","title":"Multihoming and Oligopolistic Platform Competition","abstract":"We provide a general framework to analyze competition between any number of symmetric two-sided transaction platforms, in which buyers and sellers can multihome. We show how key primitives such as the number of platforms, the fraction of buyers that find multihoming costly, the value of transactions, and the degree of user heterogeneity jointly determine the level and structure of platform fees. Even though platform entry always reduces the total fee level, whether it shifts the fee structure in favor of buyers or sellers depends on whether most of the buyers are singlehoming or multihoming.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Tat‐How Teh","Chunchun Liu","Julian Wright","Junjie Zhou"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20210324","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-446f76c3cedcc07d","title":"Comparing public procurement auctions","abstract":"This article contrasts two auction formats often used in public procurement: first price auctions with ex post screening of bid responsiveness and average bid auctions (ABAs), in which the bidder closest to the average bid wins. The equilibrium analysis reveals that their ranking is ambiguous in terms of revenues, but the ABA is typically less efficient. Using a data set of Italian public procurement auctions run alternately under the two formats, a structural model of bidding is estimated for the subsample of first price auctions and used to quantify the efficiency loss under counterfactual ABAs.","wordCount":95,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Francesco Decarolis"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12274","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44796c75c077c32c","title":"Saints Marching In, 1590–2012","abstract":"The Catholic Church has been making saints for centuries in the two‐stage process of beatification and canonization. We analyse determinants of numbers beatified and canonized (non‐martyrs) since 1590 across seven world regions. The number beatified is roughly proportional to a pope's tenure and a region's Catholic population, responds positively since the early 20th century to Catholic–Protestant competition and to secularization, and falls after the virtual ending of warfare between European Catholics and Protestants with the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. There is bias in favour of Italy, then Other Western Europe and Eastern Europe countries, and against Africa, Asia, Latin America and North America. The number canonized rises with the stock of beatifieds not yet canonized, rises with Catholic–Protestant competition, and drops after the Peace of Westphalia. Regional bias is minor for canonization, given stocks of beatifieds. The last two popes before Francis, John Paul II and Benedict XVI are large positive outliers in numbers beatified, and John Paul II is also an outlier for numbers canonized.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Robert J. Barro","Rachel M. McCleary"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12196","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-447b4d523eed1b4e","title":"Site-specific agronomic information and technology adoption: A field experiment from Ethiopia","abstract":"Smallholder farmers in Africa typically only have access to blanket fertilizer recommendations which are defined over very broad areas and may not be optimal for local production conditions. The response to such recommendations has generally been poor. Using a randomized control trial in Ethiopia, we explore whether targeted extension advice leads farmers to align fertilizer usage to the recommended levels and whether this impacts productivity. We also consider whether coupling the targeted information with agricultural insurance encourages fertilizer investment. Results show that targeted recommendations closed the gap between the amount of fertilizer used and the recommended amounts and this in turn increased productivity and profits. We found no differential effect of the targeted recommendation when coupled with agricultural insurance, suggesting that the risk of crop failure is not a binding constraint to fertilizer adoption in this context, or that farmers do not consider agricultural insurance a useful risk-mitigating mechanism.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Hailemariam Ayalew","Jordan Chamberlin","Carol Newman"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102788","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4488947c87dad261","title":"Fiscal Policy, Income Redistribution, and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Tunisia","abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of Tunisia's tax and transfer system on inequality and poverty and assesses the benefits from public spending on education and health. Results show that Tunisia's redistributive fiscal policy reduces inequality and extreme poverty significantly. However, based on the national poverty line, the headcount ratio increases, implying that a large number of the poor people pay more in taxes than they receive in cash transfers and subsidies. This is due to a relatively high burden of personal income taxes and social security contributions for low‐income households.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Nizar Jouini","Nora Lustig","Ahmed Moummi","Abebe Shimeles"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12372","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-44891d420ee2640b","title":"The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News","abstract":"We document a causal effect of the conservative Fox News Channel in the USA on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all US states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15-17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and a smaller increase in the probability of staying home after the national emergency declaration in the USA. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people's behavior.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Maxim Ananyev","Michael Poyker","Yuan Tian"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00847-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-449b0edbea8da04a","title":"Diagnosing the <scp>UK</scp> productivity slowdown: which sectors matter and why?","abstract":"This paper explores the slowdown in labour productivity growth in the UK and other advanced economies by decomposing its growth into contributions from different sectors of the economy, looking at both within‐industry productivity growth and labour reallocation between sectors. We find that the within‐industry contribution is the main source of the slowdown. Comparing trends pre‐ and post‐2008, the aggregate productivity slowdown can be attributed largely to the manufacturing sector and the information and communication (ICT) sector. Disaggregating further, the UK productivity growth slowdown can be attributed mainly to transport equipment and pharmaceuticals within manufacturing, and computer software and telecommunications within ICT. Strikingly, these are advanced, high value‐added sectors considered to be strengths of the UK economy. Looking across other advanced economies, our results confirm that manufacturing and ICT sectors are the main drivers of the slowdown, to differing degrees. Part of the explanation for the slowdown in in these sectors may relate to the underlying question of how to construct deflators for a modern economy when technological and structural changes are leading to large relative price shifts. The structure and supply chains of the key slowdown sectors also merit further investigation.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Diane Coyle","Jen‐Chung Mei"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12459","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-44af588b2c47baaa","title":"Panic bank runs, global market contagion and the financial consequences of social media","abstract":"This paper provides empirical analysis on how social media amplifies bank runs, using the recent bank turmoil in the US. Employing data for 94 countries, our findings show that social media provides a conduit through which an immediate negative and significant impact of the bank crisis transmits across global investor sentiments and market outcomes. The results also indicate a significant spill-over influence of the turmoil on European and G7 economies, while there appears to be no significant impact on major markets in Asia and Africa.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Oluwatoyin Esther Dosumu","Rilwan Sakariyahu","Ọláyínká Oyèkọ́lá","Rodiat Lawal"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111170","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-44bba68c5259a0f2","title":"Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK & SAM: an Analytical Approach","abstract":"Recently developed HANK models, which combine Heterogeneous Agents and New Keynesian frictions, have had a considerable impact on macroeconomics. However, due to the complexity of such models, the literature has focused on numerically solved models and therefore little is known about their general properties. This paper presents a tractable HANK model that integrates Search and Matching (SAM) frictions in the labor market. The model features an endogenous idiosyncratic earnings risk, which may be procyclical or countercyclical. When this risk is countercyclical, which we argue is the empirically plausible case, there is a downward pressure on real interest rates in recessions due to a precautionary savings motive. We show that in this setting (a) the economy may get stuck in a high-unemployment steady state, (b) the Taylor principle is insufficient to eliminate the local indeterminacy of the intended steady state, and (c) nominal rigidities and inincomplete markets are complementary in terms of amplifying the impact of shocks on the macroeconomy.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Morten O. Ravn","Vincent Sterk"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44c05d5f16e5771e","title":"Do Socially Responsible Firms Walk the Talk?","abstract":"Some firms claim to be socially responsible. We confront these claims with data based on the most notable recent proclamation, the Business Roundtable’s 2019 “Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation.” The influential Business Roundtable contains many of America’s largest firms; the statement proclaimed a corporation’s purpose as delivering value to all stakeholders, rather than only shareholders. However, we find no evidence that signatories—who voluntarily signed—engaged in such stakeholder-centric practices before or after signing. Relative to peers, signatories violate environmental and labor laws more frequently, have higher carbon emissions, rely more on government subsidies, and are more likely to disagree with proxy recommendations on shareholders’ proposals. We also do not observe postsigning improvements along these dimensions, which suggests that the statement was not a credible commitment to improve. Our results suggest that firms’ proclamations of stakeholder-centric behavior are not backed up by hard data.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Aneesh Raghunandan","Shiva Rajgopal"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/728855","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44cbf751f5150f9f","title":"Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification","abstract":"The paper investigates the effects of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies (EMEs). I construct novel measures of uncertainty for fifteen small EMEs and to address endogeneity I instrument them with fluctuations in global uncertainty. My results show that uncertainty shocks have substantial contractionary effects on GDP, stock prices and local currencies and the recessionary effect is much stronger in EMEs compared to advanced economies (AEs). I also estimate a negative co-movement between prices and output which triggers a delayed monetary tightening in correspondence to the inflationary peak. Counterfactual scenarios reveal that in the absence of uncertainty shocks, the fall in GDP recorded in EMEs during the 2008–2009 crisis would have been attenuated by around 2%.","wordCount":115,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Mirela Miescu"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104437","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-44ce8d426d2445be","title":"Casting a Wider Tax Net: Experimental Evidence from Costa Rica","abstract":"The majority of firms in developing countries are informal, yet even among registered firms, tax filing rates are low. We argue that non-filing of taxes among registered firms constitutes an important intermediate form of informality, which can be tackled cost-effectively. Using a randomized experiment in Costa Rica, we show that credible enforcement emails increased the tax payment rate (amount) by 3.4 p.p. (US$15) among previously non-filing firms. Emails that highlight third-party reports of a firm’s transactions further increased compliance. The effect persisted over two years, and treated firms became more likely to report transactions with other firms, facilitating future tax enforcement.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Anne Brockmeyer","Spencer Smith","Marco Hernandez","Stewart Kettle"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160589","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44d295a13faec5f8","title":"Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy","abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to identify the changes in the impact of energy shocks on economic activity with an interest in assessing if an economy's vulnerability and resilience to shocks improved with economic development. Using data on the United Kingdom over the last three hundred years, the paper identifies supply, aggregate demand and residual shocks to energy prices and estimates their changing influence on energy prices and GDP. The results suggest that the impacts of supply shocks rose with its increasing dependence on coal, and declined with its partial transition to oil. However, the transition from exporting coal to importing oil increased the negative impacts of demand shocks. More generally, the results indicate that improvements in vulnerability and resilience to shocks did not progress systematically as the economy developed. Instead, the changes in impacts depended greatly on the circumstances related to the demand for and supply of energy sources. If these experiences are transferable to future markets, a transition to a diversified mix of renewable energy is likely to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to energy price shocks.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Dirk-Jan Van de Ven","Roger Fouquet"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-44d31e4c12f73cfe","title":"Common Ownership, Competition, and Top Management Incentives","abstract":"We present a mechanism based on managerial incentives through which common ownership affects product market outcomes. Firm-level variation in common ownership causes variation in managerial incentives and productivity across firms, which leads to intraindustry and intrafirm cross-market variation in prices, output, markups, and market shares that is consistent with empirical evidence. The organizational structure of multiproduct firms and the passivity of common owners determine whether higher prices under common ownership result from higher costs or from higher markups. Using panel regressions and a difference-in-differences design, we document that managerial incentives are less performance sensitive in firms with more common ownership.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Miguel Antón","Florian Ederer","Mireia Giné","Martin C. Schmalz"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722414","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44dbbfdab100ca25","title":"Management of Bureaucrats and Public Service Delivery: Evidence from the Nigerian Civil Service","abstract":"We study how the management practices bureaucrats operate under correlate with the quantity of public services delivered, using data from the Nigerian Civil Service. We have hand‐coded independent engineering assessments of 4,700 project completion rates. We supplement this with a management survey in the bureaucracies responsible for these projects, building on Bloom and Van Reenen (2013). Management practices matter: increasing bureaucrats’ autonomy is positively associated with completion rates, yet practices related to incentives/monitoring of bureaucrats are negatively associated with completion rates. Our evidence provides new insights on the importance of management in public bureaucracies in a developing country setting.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Imran Rasul","Daniel Rogger"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12418","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44e7143b035cf38d","title":"The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis","abstract":"Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime, pooling 542 estimates from 24 studies. The effect of lead is overstated in the literature due to publication bias. Our main estimates of the mean effect sizes are a partial correlation of 0.16, and an elasticity of 0.09. Our estimates suggest the abatement of lead pollution may be responsible for 7–28% of the fall in homicide in the US. Given the historically higher urban lead levels, reduced lead pollution accounted for 6–20% of the convergence in US urban and rural crime rates. Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century. Additional explanations are needed.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Anthony Higney","Nick Hanley","Mirko Moro"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103826","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-44e84a196115017c","title":"Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012","abstract":"Do fixed geographic features such as coastlines and rivers determine town locations, or can historical events trap towns in unfavourable locations for centuries? We examine the effects on town locations of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire, which temporarily ended urbanisation in Britain, but not in France. As urbanisation recovered, medieval towns were more often found in Roman‐era town locations in France than in Britain. The resetting of Britain’s urban network gave it better access to natural navigable waterways, which mattered for town growth from 1200 to 1800. We conclude that history trapped many French towns in suboptimal locations.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Guy Michaels","Ferdinand Rauch"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12424","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-44eb5f021f6cb007","title":"Deflating China's nominal GDP: 2004–2018","abstract":"This paper is a preliminary attempt to use both the value added approach with double deflation and the expenditure approach to deflate China's nominal GDP over 15 years (2004–2018). The results show that China's real GDP growth during the period has significantly more fluctuations than the official statistics indicate. Additionally, inflation, as measured by the official implicit GDP deflator, is generally overestimated during boom years but underestimated during downturn years. In particular, it is shown that China's growth slowdown in recent years before the COVID-19 pandemic may have been more severe than official figures suggest.","wordCount":95,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Pingyao Lai","Tian Zhu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101709","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-44f2c74f9b700806","title":"Vertical shareholding during supply chain shocks","abstract":"The paper examines whether common ownership along supply chains (i.e., vertical shareholding) is associated with better firm performance during supply chain shock. We find that supplier-customer dyads with vertical shareholding report higher combined monthly returns since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dedicated common investors have the most positive effects, followed by the common quasi-indexers.","wordCount":56,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Shunlan Fang","Rui-Zhong Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111566","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-44fff6c421e8a6b3","title":"The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980–2000","abstract":"From 1980 to 2000, the rise in the US college/high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage, high rent cities. This paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting. While local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting, it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities. Changes in cities' wages, rents, and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Rebecca Diamond"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20131706","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-45014a8babca3c13","title":"Living standards in Angola, 1760–1975","abstract":"We investigate the well-being of urban workers in Angola under colonialism. Using a newly compiled dataset derived from archival and secondary sources, we construct welfare ratios for both skilled and unskilled workers in the cities of Luanda and Benguela from 1760 to 1975. Our findings indicate that Angolan workers experienced lower economic prosperity compared to their counterparts in other parts of the world. Living standards declined during the 19th century, followed by a recovery emerging in the 20th century –particularly from the mid-1960s.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Hélder Carvalhal","Nuno Palma"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101732","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-45088d43c1b82375","title":"How Much Should We Trust Estimates of Firm Effects and Worker Sorting?","abstract":"Many studies use matched employer-employee data to estimate a statistical model of earnings determination with worker and firm fixed effects. Estimates based on this model have produced influential yet controversial conclusions. The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of these conclusions to the biases that arise because of limited mobility of workers across firms. We use employer-employee data from the United States and several European countries while taking advantage of both fixed effects and random effects methods for bias correction. We find that limited mobility bias is severe and that bias correction is important.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Stéphane Bonhomme","Kerstin Holzheu","Thibaut Lamadon","Elena Manresa","Magne Mogstad","Bradley Setzler"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720009","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-451d1afbb20e42e2","title":"Sectoral Productivity Growth and Poverty Reduction: National and Global Impacts","abstract":"This paper examines the implications of productivity improvements in agriculture, industry, and services for global poverty. We find that, in poor countries, increases in agricultural productivity generally have a larger poverty-reduction effect than increases in industry or services. This differential declines as average incomes rise, partly because agriculture becomes smaller as a share of the economy, and partly because agricultural productivity growth becomes less effective in reducing poverty. The source of the poverty-reduction benefits from agricultural productivity growth changes as innovations are more widely adopted—moving from increases in producer returns to reductions in consumer prices.","wordCount":95,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Maros Ivanic","Will Martín"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.07.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4520dc9f9895b6fa","title":"The politics of last resort lending and the Overend & Gurney crisis of 1866","abstract":"News of the insolvency of Overend, Gurney, & Company on 10 May 1866 generated a scramble for funds in the City of London and urgent appeals to the Bank of England. The banking panic triggered by the collapse of the prominent British discount house became one of the Bank's most tumultuous modern crises. This article investigates the politics of the Bank's liquidity provision during the 1866 crisis, and in the ensuing months of financial stringency. By assessing the correspondence, speeches, and publications of Governors, City figures, and financial journalists, the article finds that the Bank's evolving approach to crisis lending was decisively shaped by its commercial objectives and a prolonged struggle to preserve its autonomy. When confronted with the 1866 crisis, the Bank adopted a pragmatic stance towards the market, which accommodated the credit needs of the City without sacrificing either its privileged legal status or its shareholders’ interests. Its Governors’ rhetorical pursuit of ‘constructive ambiguity’ during the post‐crisis months succeeded in both limiting moral hazard and consolidating the Bank's discretionary powers.","wordCount":172,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Sabine Schneider"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13113","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4536215017f1f35d","title":"Auctions with signaling bidders: Optimal design and information disclosure","abstract":"We study optimal auctions in a symmetric private values setting, where bidders have signaling concerns: they care about winning the object and a receiver's inference about their type. Signaling concerns arise in various economic situations such as takeover bidding, charity auctions, procurement and art auctions. We show that auction revenue can be decomposed into the standard revenue from the respective auction without signaling concern, and a signaling component. The latter is the bidders' ex-ante expected signaling value net of an endogenous outside option: the signaling value for the lowest type. The revenue decomposition restores revenue equivalence between different auction designs, provided that the same information about bids is revealed. Revealing information about submitted bids affects revenue via the endogenous outside option. In general, revenue is not monotone in information revelation: revealing more information about submitted bids may reduce revenue. We show that any bid disclosure rule allowing to distinguish whether a bidder submitted a bid or abstained from participation minimizes the outside option, and therefore maximizes revenue.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Olivier Bos","Martin Pollrich"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.02.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-454ac0613517ba72","title":"Student responsiveness to earnings data in the college scorecard","abstract":"Using the universe of SAT score sends to colleges and the exact date on which these scores are sent, we estimate how students responded to the release of the U.S. Department of Education's College Scorecard in September 2015. We find that data on annual cost and graduation rate, both of which were previously available, did not impact the volume of score sends received by colleges. By contrast, we estimate that each 10% increase in reported earnings resulted in a 2.4% increase in score sends. The impact is driven almost entirely by well‐resourced high schools and students. We find little evidence that the count or composition of enrolled students changed as a result of the Scorecard information shock with the exception of a slight increase in academic preparedness, as measured by SAT scores, among enrollees at colleges with higher reported earnings.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Michael Hurwitz","Jonathan Smith"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12530","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4557a6d669deed33","title":"Financial inclusion: measurement, spatial effects and influencing factors","abstract":"Using the index of financial inclusion and the World Bank Global Findex database, this study measures the level of financial inclusion across countries. The results reveal a geographical spatial aggregation distribution in which developed European and North American countries enjoy higher levels of financial inclusion than the less developed countries of Africa and most of Asia. Accordingly, our spatial analysis proves our hypothesis and reveals dependence and aggregation effects among countries. Then, we employ spatial econometric research to identify those factors significantly associated with financial inclusion. The results show that an individual’s income, education and use of communications equipment are important factors that explain the level of financial inclusion, while financial depth and banking health status are the main determinants. Building an inclusive financial system is an important means for most countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Xiuhua Wang","Jian Guan"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1226488","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-45587b89b13b2596","title":"Competing on Speed","abstract":"We analyze trading speed and fragmentation in asset markets. In our model, trading venues make technological investments and compete for investors who choose where and how much to trade. Faster venues charge higher fees and attract speed-sensitive investors. Competition among venues increases investor participation, trading volume, and allocative e ffi ciency, but entry and fragmentation can be excessive, and speeds are generically ine ffi cient. Regulations that protect transaction prices (e.g., Securities and Exchange Commission trade-through rule) lead to greater fragmentation. Our model sheds light on the experience of European and U.S. markets since the implementation of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and Regulation National Markets System.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Emiliano Pagnotta","Thomas Philippon"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10762","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-45589aab273f72ac","title":"Are Women Doing It for Themselves? Female Managers and the Gender Wage Gap","abstract":"Using linked employer‐employee data for Britain, we find a robust association between the share of female managers in the workplace and the size of the gender wage gap. In workplace fixed‐effects estimates, the gap is eradicated when more than 60% of workplace managers are women, a scenario that obtains in around one fifth of all workplaces. The association between the share of female managers and the gender wage gap is more pronounced when workplace managers set pay at the workplace, and where employees are paid for performance. These findings are consistent with the proposition that women are more likely to be paid equitably when managers have discretion in the way they set pay or reward performance and those managers are women. They suggest that a stronger presence of women in managerial positions can help tackle the gender wage gap.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Νικόλαος Θεοδωρόπουλος","John Forth","Alex Bryson"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12509","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-45616030592db836","title":"Are Consumers Poorly Informed about Fuel Economy? Evidence from Two Experiments","abstract":"It is often asserted that consumers are poorly informed about and inattentive to fuel economy, causing them to buy low-fuel economy vehicles despite their own best interest. This paper presents evidence on this assertion through two experiments providing fuel economy information to new vehicle shoppers. Results show zero statistical or economic effect on average fuel economy of vehicles purchased. In the context of a simple optimal policy model, the estimates suggest that current and proposed US fuel economy standards are significantly more stringent than needed to address the classes of imperfect information and inattention addressed by our interventions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Hunt Allcott","Christopher R. Knittel"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4568123f211c2b00","title":"Parenthood and the Gender Gap in Pay","abstract":"We compare the income and wage trajectories of women to those of their male partners before and after parenthood. Focusing on the within-couple gap allows us to control for both observed and unobserved attributes of the spouse and to estimate both short- and long-term effects of entering parenthood. We find that 15 years after the first child has been born, the male-female gender gaps in income and wages have increased by 32 and 10 percentage points, respectively. In line with a collective labor supply model, the magnitude of these effects depends on counterfactual relative incomes or wages within the family.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Nikolay Angelov","Per Johansson","Erica Lindahl"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684851","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-45683563742afad1","title":"The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and <scp>COVID</scp>‐19","abstract":"Large in-person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the \"highest risk\" for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7-16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask-wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID-19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference-in-differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4-12.5% increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID-19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Dhaval Dave","Drew McNichols","Joseph J. Sabia"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12475","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-458006d029d87cb3","title":"The women-empowering effect of higher education","abstract":"We examine the effects of the large-scale construction of public universities in Egypt during the 1960s and 1970s. We found that opening a local university increased the likelihood of obtaining higher education degrees and had long-lasting positive effects on labor market and marriage outcomes, particularly for women. We give insights on internal migration as a channel and show that migration prior to university enrollment age decreased while migration after that age increased as an outcome of university construction. Local universities reduced men’s migration for study and women’s migration for early marriage. The paper highlights the importance of increasing access to higher education for positive social and labor outcomes, particularly for women.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Ahmed Elsayed","Alina Shirshikova"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103101","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-459ca19f34e02270","title":"Revealed preferences under uncertainty: Incomplete preferences and preferences for randomization","abstract":"We present a set of experiments testing for incomplete preferences due to uncertainty. In a first experiment, we observe that approximately half of the participants exhibit a choice pattern inconsistent with models assuming complete preferences and Certainty Independence (CI). To understand these participants' behavior, in a second experiment, we design a decision task that distinguishes between models assuming complete preferences and relaxing CI and models of incomplete preferences under uncertainty. We find that about half of the participants in question exhibit behavior consistent with incomplete preferences, about one third shows behavior consistent with a preference for randomization between risky and ambiguous prospects, and the remaining participants' behavior is consistent with both types of preferences. In further experiments we find that the observed choice pattern cannot be attributed to probability weighting, choice mistakes, regret aversion or intransitive indifference under risk and certainty. We also show that the observed behavior is robust to a prize variation in the ambiguous prospect.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Elena Cettolin","Arno Riedl"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2019.03.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-459ddc5308024de9","title":"Measuring multi-product banks’ market power using the Lerner index","abstract":"The aggregate Lerner index is a popular composite measure of multi-product banks’ market power, based on total assets as the single aggregate output factor. We show that the aggregate Lerner index only qualifies as a consistently aggregated Lerner index if three conditions hold. Under these conditions, the aggregate Lerner index reduces to a weighted-average of the product-specific Lerner indices. We test the three conditions for a sample of U.S. banks covering the years 2011–2017. All three conditions are rejected and we show that they may cause an economically relevant bias to the aggregate Lerner index, depending on the economic context. As a general solution, we propose using the always consistently aggregated weighted-average Lerner index whenever a composite Lerner index is needed.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Sherrill Shaffer","Laura Spierdijk"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105859","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-45a2197d331af193","title":"The Economic Geography of Global Warming","abstract":"Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. We propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution to assess its consequences. Our model features several forms of adaptation to local temperature changes, including costly trade and migration, local technological innovations, and local natality rates. We quantify the model at a 1∘×1∘ resolution and estimate damage functions that determine the impact of temperature changes on a region’s fundamental productivity and amenities conditional on local temperatures. Welfare losses from global warming are very heterogeneous across locations, with 20% losses in parts of Africa and Latin America but also gains in some northern latitudes. Overall, spatial inequality increases. Uncertainty about average welfare effects is significant but much smaller for relative losses across space. Migration and innovation are shown to be important adaptation mechanisms. We use the model to study the impact of carbon taxes, abatement technologies, and clean energy subsidies. Carbon taxes delay consumption of fossil fuels and help flatten the temperature curve but are much more effective when an abatement technology is forthcoming.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["J.L. Cruz","Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad042","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-45a52a7bf6045ffd","title":"Diminishing treasury convenience premiums: Effects of dealers’ excess demand and balance sheet constraints","abstract":"After the global financial crisis, the yields of U.S. Treasury bills frequently exceed other risk-free rate benchmarks, thereby pointing to a diminishing convenience premium. Constructing a new measure of dealers’ balance sheet constraints for providing intermediation in U.S. Treasury markets, we trace these diminishing convenience premiums to primary dealers’ ability to act as intermediaries. Even after accounting for Treasury supply, levels of interest rates, and other controls, falling excess demand of primary dealers in Treasury auctions, their increased Treasury holdings, and balance sheet constraints post-2015, remain key variables in explaining the diminishing convenience premiums.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Sven Klingler","Suresh Sundaresan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-45a75e5344fac33a","title":"Under- and over-investment in education: the role of locked-in fertility","abstract":"This research argues that, in the presence of idiosyncratic ability shocks after childbirth, irreversible fertility decisions distort the resource allocation between the quantity and quality of children. In underdeveloped environments, where family size is locked into large levels, education investment places a heavy financial burden on households, which deprives some competent children of learning opportunities. In contrast, in more developed environments, family size is locked into smaller levels, which facilitates education investment even for some children with low aptitude. A redistributive policy to mitigate the distortion is proposed for each stage.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Masao Nakagawa","Asuka Oura","Yoshiaki Sugimoto"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00823-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-45b494a6dd4a62b7","title":"Getting a healthy start: The effectiveness of targeted benefits for improving dietary choices","abstract":"There is growing policy interest in encouraging better dietary choices. We study a nationally-implemented policy - the UK Healthy Start scheme - that introduced vouchers for fruit, vegetables and milk. We show that the policy has increased spending on fruit and vegetables and has been more effective than an equivalent-value cash benefit. We also show that the policy improved the nutrient composition of households' shopping baskets, with no offsetting changes in spending on other foodstuffs.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Rachel Griffith","Stephanie von Hinke","Sarah Smith"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.02.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-45bea4142ba005a5","title":"The Persistent Effect of Temporary Affirmative Action","abstract":"I estimate the dynamic effects of federal affirmative action regulation, exploiting variation in the timing of regulation and deregulation across work establishments. Affirmative action increases the black share of employees over time: in 5 years after an establishment is first regulated, the black share of employees increases by an average of 0.8 percentage points. Strikingly, the black share continues to grow at a similar pace even after an establishment is deregulated. I argue that this persistence is driven in part by affirmative action inducing employers to improve their methods for screening potential hires.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Conrad Miller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160121","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-45c46bb605187210","title":"Value and momentum from investors’ perspective: Evidence from professionals’ risk-ratings","abstract":"We conduct a controlled experiment with financial professionals to examine more directly whether value and momentum reflect risk factors or mispricing. By eliciting their risk perceptions and return expectations for company stocks, we identify what constitutes a risky investment from the point of investors. Contrary to the risk factor hypothesis, value and momentum stocks are regarded as less risky. However, other factors, such as size and beta, fall in line with their traditional interpretation as risk factors. Consistent with empirical findings, we observe higher return expectations for momentum stocks, raising questions on analysts believing in a risk–return trade-off.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Christoph Merkle","Christoph J. Sextroh"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.03.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-45c92c75607d0619","title":"Online trade platforms: Hosting, selling, or both?","abstract":"We illustrate conditions under which a trade platform selling its own products alongside third-party sellers benefits or harms consumers. This benefits consumers by lowering prices in a suite of models: a gatekeeper platform facing a competitive fringe of sellers, when fringe sellers also have their own channels perfectly or imperfectly substitutable to the platform; when the gatekeeper platform with fringe sellers competes against a big seller with market power on a differentiated alternative channel; and when the gatekeeper platform hosts only a big seller with market power. Platform product entry might harm consumers when a big firm sells both on the platform and on its alternative channel. The platform selling its own products harms consumers when consumers have heterogenous tastes for variants of products and the platform can control the access of fringe sellers via its commission and own product price. We also review the recent literature to highlight other channels via which benefits and harm arise from the platform selling its own products in its marketplace.","wordCount":167,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Simon P. Anderson","Özlem Bedre-Defolie"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102861","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-45ced7674ffa6014","title":"Charitable giving, emotions, and the default effect","abstract":"We report an experiment to study the effect of defaults on charitable giving. In three different treatments, participants face varying default levels of donation. In three other treatments that are paired with the first three, they receive the same defaults, but are informed that defaults are thought to have an effect on their donation decisions. The emotional state of all individuals is monitored throughout the sessions using Facereading software, and some participants are required to report their emotional state after the donation decision. We find that the level at which a default is set has no effect on donations, and informing individuals of the possible impact of defaults also has no effect. Individuals who are happier and in a more positive overall emotional state donate more. Donors experience a negative change in the valence of their emotional state subsequent to donating, when valence is measured with Facereading software. This contrasts with the self‐report data, in which donating correlates with a more positive reported subsequent emotional state.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Lenka Fiala","Charles Noussair"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12459","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4600f2badba17752","title":"A model of price discrimination under loss aversion and state-contingent reference points","abstract":"We study optimal price discrimination when a monopolist faces a continuum of consumers with reference-dependent preferences. A consumer's valuation for product quality consists of an intrinsic valuation affected by a private state signal (type) and a gain–loss valuation that depends on deviations of purchased quality from a reference point. Following [Kőszegi and Rabin, 2006], we consider loss-averse buyers who evaluate gains and losses in terms of changes in the consumption valuation, but in our model each buyer evaluates consumption outcomes relative to his own state-contingent reference quality level. We capture the process by which reference qualities are formed via a reference consumption plan, and use a generalization of the Mirrlees representation of the indirect utility to fully characterize optimal contracts for loss-averse consumers. We find that, depending on the reference plan, optimal price discrimination may exhibit (i) downward distortions beyond the standard downward distortions due to screening, (ii) efficiency gains relative to second-best contracts without loss aversion, and (iii) upward distortions above first-best quality levels without loss aversion. We consider ex ante and ex post consistent contracts in which quality offers by the firm coincide, in expectations or at every state realization, respectively, with the reference quality levels. We find the firm's unique preferred ex ante and ex post consistent contract menu and specify conditions under which, for the second case, it also constitutes the consumers' preferred menu.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Juan Carlos Carbajal","Jeffrey C. Ely"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1737","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-4611cad25a0f91e5","title":"Stereotypical behavior vs. expectations: Gender differences in a dictator game","abstract":"In general gender differences have frequently been studied in experimental economics, but the findings remain inconclusive. In this study, we focus on gender differences in expectations and gender specific stereotypic mindsets in a dictator game, building on Blanckenburg, Tebbe, & Iseke (2023). We add to prior work by differentiating between stereotypical behavior and stereotypical expectations. Accordingly, we extended the classic dictator game by three steps in order to study whether recipients develop stereotypical beliefs regarding the dictator’s gender based on the amount of money the dictator has allocated to them. First, we asked recipients to estimate the amount. We then revealed the amount the dictator actually allocated to the recipient and finally, we asked the recipient to assess the dictator’s gender. In contrast to and building on previous results which show no gender differences regarding the amount the dictators allocate, we find evidence for stereotypical expectations of the recipients based on the amount the dictator allocates to them.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Christine Austermann","Korbinian von Blanckenburg","Anja Iseke","Eva Tebbe"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102742","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46313a3873aa24fc","title":"Systemic risk allocation using the asymptotic marginal expected shortfall","abstract":"This paper defines asymptotic marginal expected shortfall (AMES) for banks within a financial system and provides corresponding estimation method based on multivariate extreme value theory. The estimation method does not assume a specific dependence structure among bank equity returns. Both theoretical AMES and the estimator possess additive property and thus can serve as a tool to allocate system-wide risk to individual institutions. We apply the AMES to 30 global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs). We show that the AMES outperforms the MES in predicting extreme losses during extreme systemic events. By taking the AMES as the reference point for allocating systemic risk to individual institutions, we show that an allocation according to simple bank characteristics such as size and individual risk can be imperfect. The allocation unfairness of individual risk or size across all the G-SIFIs has increased since 2008.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Qin Xiao","Chen Zhou"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106099","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-464405e7c42f1a71","title":"Dynamic Competition, Price Frictions and Institution Building: the CMA in 2022–2023","abstract":"This article discusses three projects of economic significance that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) completed in the last year: First, we discuss the dynamic competition concerns that were at the heart of the CMA’s analysis of the Meta/GIPHY merger; this was the first case of a competition authority’s blocking an acquisition by one of the ‘Big Tech’ firms. Second, our work on the road fuels market study examined pricing behaviour in an important consumer-facing market and found that competition had weakened because historic price leaders have been taking a less aggressive approach to pricing, Third, we established a new research centre—the Microeconomics Unit—to bring economic expertise on competition, innovation, and productivity closer to regulatory and policy decisions.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Julie Bon","Alistair Love","Alan McNaboe","Nenad Njegovan","Jakob Schneebacher","Mike Walker"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09934-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46516430a879792e","title":"Health and aging before and after retirement","abstract":"We investigate occupation-specific aging patterns before and after retirement and test the level and rate effects of occupation predicted by the health capital model and the health deficit model. We use five waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and construct a frailty index for elderly men and women from 10 European countries. Occupational groups are classified according to low vs. high education, blue vs. white collar, and high vs. low physical or psychosocial job burden. Controlling for individual fixed effects, we find that, regardless of the classification used, workers from the first (low-status) group display more health deficits at any age and accumulate health deficits faster than workers from the second (high-status) group. We instrument retirement by statutory retirement ages (“normal” and “early”) and find that the health of workers in low-status occupations benefits greatly from retirement, whereas retirement effects for workers in high-status occupations are small and frequently insignificant. In support of the health deficit model, we find that the health status of individuals from low- and high-status groups diverges before and after retirement.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Ana Lucia Abeliansky","Holger Strulik"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00951-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4655037c8e1a23b5","title":"Horizontal subcontracting and investment in idle dispatchable power plants","abstract":"We analyze horizontal subcontracting and show how idle production facilities can reduce contracting costs by credibly protecting against hold-up. Our analysis contributes to understanding competition between power firms that increasingly use intermittent generation sources. Their unilateral incentives to invest in maintaining underused units, such as dispatchable gas-fired plants, are underrated by plant profitability indicators. From a policy perspective, decentralized strategic investment incentives reduce the possible need for centralized security of supply measures. Our welfare analysis indicates that quantity competition can lead to a lower market-clearing price than price competition.","wordCount":89,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jan Bouckaert","Geert Van Moer"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2017.02.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-466a5637a951d348","title":"Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: an Intergenerational Perspective","abstract":"We study the sources of racial disparities in income using anonymized longitudinal data covering nearly the entire U.S. population from 1989 to 2015. We document three results. First, black Americans and American Indians have much lower rates of upward mobility and higher rates of downward mobility than whites, leading to persistent disparities across generations. Conditional on parent income, the black-white income gap is driven by differences in wages and employment rates between black and white men; there are no such differences between black and white women. Hispanic Americans have rates of intergenerational mobility more similar to whites than blacks, leading the Hispanic-white income gap to shrink across generations. Second, differences in parental marital status, education, and wealth explain little of the black-white income gap conditional on parent income. Third, the black-white gap persists even among boys who grow up in the same neighborhood. Controlling for parental income, black boys have lower incomes in adulthood than white boys in 99% of Census tracts. The few areas with small black-white gaps tend to be low-poverty neighborhoods with low levels of racial bias among whites and high rates of father presence among blacks. Black males who move to such neighborhoods earlier in childhood have significantly better outcomes. However, less than 5% of black children grow up in such areas. Our findings suggest that reducing the black-white income gap will require efforts whose impacts cross neighborhood and class lines and increase upward mobility specifically for black men.","wordCount":243,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Raj Chetty","Nathaniel Hendren","Maggie R. Jones","Sonya R. Porter"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz042","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46739d3cfb164df4","title":"The global cost of reaching a world without hunger: Investment costs and policy action opportunities","abstract":"This study developed a marginal abatement cost curve to identify a mix of least-cost investment options with the highest potential for hunger reduction, hunger here defined by the undernourishment concept of the Food and Agriculture Organization. Twenty-two different interventions are considered for reducing undernourishment relying on information drawn from best available evidence-based literature, including model- and large-scale intervention studies. Ending hunger by 2030 would require annual investments of about US$ 39 to 50 billion until 2030 to lift about 840 to 909 million people out of hunger, which is the 2020 estimate of hunger projection in 2030, also considering the effects of COVID-19. Investing in agricultural R&D, agricultural extension services, ICT - Agricultural information systems, small-scale irrigation expansion in Africa and female literacy improvement are low cost options that have a relatively large hunger-reduction potential. To achieve the goal of ending hunger by 2030, not only is it urgent not to lose any more time, but also to optimally phase investments. Investments that have more long-term impacts should be frontloaded in the decade in order to reap their benefits soon before 2030. A balanced approach is needed to reach the hungry soon – including those adversely affected by COVID-19 with social protection and nutrition programs.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Bezawit Beyene Chichaibelu","Maksud Bekchanov","Joachim von Braun","Máximo Torero"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102151","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-467deab7c14ae8b0","title":"Do College Graduates Serving as Village Officials Help Rural China?","abstract":"This study estimates the effect of improved bureaucrat quality on poverty alleviation by exploring a unique human capital reallocation policy in China—the College Graduate Village Officials (CGVOs) program. We find that introducing CGVOs into the village governance system improves the targeting and implementation of the central government's social assistance programs. CGVOs help eligible poor households understand and apply for relevant subsidies, thus increasing the number of pro-poor program beneficiaries. Further analysis suggests that CGVOs change bureaucrat quality, rather than quantity, of village governance, and their presence reduces elite capture of pro-poor programs.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Guojun He","Shaoda Wang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-46926623a9e529f1","title":"Limited asset market participation, sticky wages, and monetary policy","abstract":"A small amount of nominal wage stickiness makes limited asset market participation (LAMP) irrelevant for the design of monetary policy. Recent research argues that LAMP could invert the slope of the IS curve in otherwise standard New Keynesian models. This, in turn, implies that optimal monetary policy rules should be passive. We show that the so‐called inverted aggregate demand logic (IADL) relies on nominal wage flexibility. Outside of extreme parameterizations, wage stickiness prevents the inversion of the slope of the IS curve. Hence, LAMP does not generally alter the trade‐offs faced by a welfare maximizing Central Bank, and for this reason it does not fundamentally affect the design of optimal simple rules and optimal monetary policy.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Guido Ascari","Andrea Colciago","Lorenza Rossi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12424","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-46931bbcdef1eece","title":"Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications","abstract":"We document heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across household characteristics relevant to understanding heterogeneous agent models and monetary policy transmission. We find a strong negative relationship between household liquid wealth and MPC. We show that household liquid wealth predicts MPC closely for every other household characteristic we look at. We use a new empirical method that overcomes sources of bias found in the existing literature, along with administrative data from Denmark that allow us to identify heterogeneous behavior. We use our results to analyze monetary policy transmission mechanisms in both Denmark and the United States.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Edmund Crawley","Andreas Küchler"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200352","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4694ab9bb4ceb32a","title":"The spillover and contagion effects of sovereign risk on stock markets","abstract":"This study examines the spillover effects of sovereign risk on international stock markets using a dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) on a panel of forty countries from 2009Q1 to 2024Q2. The findings show that an increase in sovereign risk, as measured by CDS spreads, leads to a significant decrease in both local and foreign stock prices, with 0.027 percent reductions across foreign markets on average. These effects are transmitted through geographical, and economic and financial channels, with exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation, and industrial production playing crucial roles in influencing stock market performance. Additionally, the negative (positive) spillover effects from rising gross fixed capital formation and sovereign risk (industrial production) demonstrate how foreign markets are more impacted than domestic ones. The study highlights the interconnected nature of global financial markets, reinforcing the need for coordinated international policy responses to mitigate the transmission of sovereign risk across borders. These findings provide new insights into how global economic factors influence stock market volatility, particularly through specific transmission channels, underscoring the importance of multilateral collaboration in managing sovereign risk.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Pascal Xavier Gnagne","Beatrice D. Simo‐Kengne","Mathias Mandla Manguzvane"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106921","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46a9f07704b59364","title":"A note on optimal experimentation under risk aversion","abstract":"In a standard two-armed bandit setup, this paper shows – counterintuitively – that a more risk-averse decision maker might be more willing to take risky actions. The reason relates to the fact that pulling the risky arm in bandit models produces information on the environment – thereby reducing the risk that a decision maker will face in the future. This finding gives reason for caution when inferring risk preferences from observed actions: in a bandit setup, observing a greater appetite for risky actions can actually be indicative of more risk aversion, not less.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Godfrey Keller","Vladimír Novák","Tim Willems"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.11.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46aceb49948515db","title":"COVID-19 vaccine and risk-taking","abstract":"We assess whether the COVID-19 vaccine induces COVID-19 risky behavior (e.g., going to bars and restaurants) and thus reduces vaccine efficacy. A key empirical challenge is the endogeneity bias when comparing risk-taking by vaccination status since people choose whether to get vaccinated. To address this bias, we exploit rich survey panel data on individuals followed before and after vaccine availability over fourteen months in an event study fixed effects model with individual, time, sector, and county-by-time fixed effects and inverse propensity weights. We find evidence that vaccinated persons, regardless of the timing of vaccination, increase their risk-taking activities. The evidence is consistent with the “lulling effect”. While vaccine availability may reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19, it also contributes to further spread of the virus by incentivizing risk-taking in the short term.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Shanike J. Smart","Solomon W. Polachek"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09424-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46b55650222cfc71","title":"The role of food preferences in determining diet quality for Tanzanian consumers","abstract":"Consumer preferences can be leveraged to magnify the impacts of agricultural investments and interventions on diets for all consumers in an economy, not just farmers. Using nationally representative panel data from Tanzania, we estimate demand for 19 food groups using an Exact Affine Stone Index censored demand system, which is flexible, utility-theoretic, controls for unobserved heterogeneity, and accounts for bias arising from endogenous prices. We find strong links between growth in household expenditures and improved diet quality. Also, staple grain prices are important determinants of nutrient intake. For poor consumers, e.g., protein and iron intake are more sensitive to maize price changes than to changing prices of other foods that contain more protein and iron. We use simulations to show that cash transfers and price vouchers targeting staple grains, pulses & nuts, and starchy staples could be effective in shrinking gaps between recommended and actual dietary intake for poor consumers.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Ellen McCullough","Chen Zhen","Soye Shin","Meichen Lu","Joanne E Arsenault"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102789","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46b596a55b021b23","title":"Lost in the net? Broadband internet and youth mental health","abstract":"How does the internet affect young people's mental health? We study this question using administrative data on the universe of cases of mental disorders diagnosed in Italian hospitals between 2001 and 2013, which we combine with broadband internet availability at the municipal level. Broadband internet access raises the prevalence of mental disorders among younger cohorts (born between 1985 and 1995) by 0.08 standard deviation units, but it does not impact older individuals (1974 and 1984). The adverse effects are driven by individuals who were exposed early in their lives (before the age of 20). These effects persist when examining instances of self-harm and urgent or compulsory hospitalizations, indicating that the negative outcomes are not merely a result of increased awareness and detection of these conditions. The detrimental impacts span across different pathologies, including depression, anxiety, drug abuse, and personality disorders for both genders, in addition to eating disorders for females.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Dante Donati","Ruben Durante","Francesco Sobbrio","Dijana Zejcirovic"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46b7de87c40f68fe","title":"Relative age for grade and adolescent risky health behavior","abstract":"This paper uses Danish register data to examine the effect of relative age for grade on women's risky health behavior. I exploit an administrative rule that creates a discontinuous jump in relative age for grade for children born around January 1. Being young-for-grade leads to a higher probability of an abortion and alcohol poisoning in adolescence and earlier births, cohabitation and contraceptive use. The results show how relative age for grade is a determinant of adolescent women's risky sex and heavy drinking. For men, being young-for-grade have no effect on alcohol poisonings, fatherhood and cohabitation.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Eva Rye Johansen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102438","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-46ba6faad191a473","title":"Harvesting selectivity and stochastic recruitment in economic models of age-structured fisheries","abstract":"We develop the age-structured fishery model by including endogenous harvesting selectivity and stochastic recruitment, as a growing body of fishery ecological evidence suggests these factors to be critical for fisheries management. Optimal harvesting selectivity aims to direct fishing towards age classes that are preferable to catch given information on fish growth, natural mortality, and recruitment in addition to implications on harvesting cost. We analytically show that maximum sustainable yield (MSY) leads to potentially serious and previously unrecognized deviation from economic optimality, as it neglects the dependence of harvesting costs on gear selectivity. We further show that the steady-state population level may fall below the MSY population even with zero discounting and stock-dependent harvesting costs. We quantify our results using empirical data for Baltic cod. Applying the age-structured model with endogenous harvesting selectivity, we find large differences between maximum sustainable yield and the economic optimum, although the classic biomass model suggests that these differences should be unimportant. Stochastic recruitment implies a threefold increase in young age classes, but the stochastic solution can be accurately approximated by the certainty equivalence principle.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Olli Tahvonen","Martin F. Quaas","R. Voss"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.08.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-46c62b87ffd36161","title":"Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment","abstract":"This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of payments to study the impact of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on intermediation of private banks. If banks have market power in the deposit market, a CBDC can enhance competition, raising the deposit rate, expanding intermediation, and increasing output. A calibration to the US economy suggests that a CBDC can raise bank lending by 1.57% and output by 0.19%. These crowding-in effects remain robust, albeit with smaller magnitudes, after taking into account endogenous bank entry. We also assess the role of a non-interest-bearing CBDC as the use of cash declines.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Jonathan Chiu","Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini","Janet Hua Jiang","Yu Zhu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722517","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-46d3314fec62aecb","title":"Some simple bitcoin economics","abstract":"We provide a model of an endowment economy with two competing, but intrinsically worthless currencies (Dollar, Bitcoin). Dollars are supplied by a central bank to achieve its inflation target, while the Bitcoin supply grows deterministically. Our fundamental pricing equation implies in its simplest form that Bitcoin prices form a martingale. “Mutual impatience” implies absence of speculation. Price volatility therefore does not invalidate the medium-of-exchange function. Bitcoin block rewards are not a tax on Bitcoin holders: they are financed with a Dollar tax. We discuss monetary policy implications, Bitcoin production, taxation, welfare and entry, and characterize the range of equilibria.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Linda Schilling","Harald Uhlig"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.07.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46df8ba8531a32a0","title":"Can centralization of environmental regulations reduce firm emissions? Evidence from county‐prefecture centralization reforms in China","abstract":"Drawing on a natural experiment generated by prefecture‐level centralization reforms in China in the early 2000s, we study whether a centralized regulatory system delivers better environmental outcomes in a developing country context. We examine the impact of centralization reforms on firm air pollution emissions using a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy. We find that centralization reform reduces firm air pollution intensities in total waste air, SO2, and soot. This effect is robust when we control for contemporaneous environmental policy changes and SOE reforms and when we use alternative differences‐in‐differences estimations. We perform placebo tests to further demonstrate that the relationship is unlikely a function of a selection effect and omitted variables. Empirical tests on mechanisms reveal that pollution reduction is mainly due to increased pollution removals during the end‐of‐pipe treatment stage while there is little evidence that centralization increases firm scale of production, productivity, efficiency, and innovation efforts. We show that such firm responses are likely a function of increased regulatory enforcement brought by the reform. Finally, we test whether a centralization reform drives local firms away (i.e., a spillover effect) and we find no supporting evidence.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Xun Cao","Mingqin Wu"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22678","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-46e1cd108a0b80c4","title":"Measuring tail risk","abstract":"We comprehensively investigate the usefulness of tail risk measures proposed in the literature. We evaluate their statistical as well as their economic validity. The option-implied measure of Bollerslev and Todorov (2011b) (BT11Q) performs best overall. While some other tail risk measures excel at specialized tasks, BT11Q performs well in all tests: First, BT11Q can predict both future tail events and future tail volatility. Second, it has predictive power for returns in both the time series and the cross-section, as well as for real economic activity. Finally, a simulation analysis shows that the main driver of performance is measurement error.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Maik Dierkes","Fabian Hollstein","Marcel Prokopczuk","Christoph Matthias Würsig"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105769","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46e6d8c84a94ea91","title":"The Canadian Geography of Intergenerational Income Mobility","abstract":"Intergenerational income mobility varies significantly across Canada, with the 266 Census Divisions in the 1986 Census clustering into five non-contiguous regions. Nine complementary indicators are calculated for each Census Division using administrative data on a cohort of men and women born between 1963 and 1970. Collectively these indicators underscore the importance of simultaneously examining different dimensions of intergenerational mobility and also show that higher mobility is most strongly associated with less income inequality in the bottom half of the income distribution.","wordCount":81,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Miles Corak"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-46e78b9b04a21ea1","title":"Children and the gender gap in management","abstract":"Women are typically less likely to hold management positions than men. Despite the converging roles of men and women in several labour market outcomes, the gender management gap is persistent. In this paper, we analyse the impact of children on the gender gap in management, focussing on the within-couple gap, allowing us to control for both observed and unobserved attributes of the spouse. The main findings suggest that the gender gap in management increases considerably after the arrival of the first child. Nine years after the birth of the firstborn child, the male–female gap in management has increased by approximately 5 percentage points. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that the gender gap is wider, and gets steeper over time, for couples where the father has a management education or higher education, compared to the gap for the overall sample. In households where the spouses share the parental leave and the mother returns to full-time employment after the leave, the increase in the gender management gap is much smaller, and it is no longer significant towards the end of the period.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Inés Hardoy","Pål Schøne","Kjersti Misje Østbakken"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.05.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-46f1573387955ec2","title":"Son preference and education Inequalities in India: the role of gender-biased fertility strategies and preferential treatment of boys","abstract":"We investigate the impact of son preference in India on gender inequalities in education. We distinguish the impact of preferential treatment of boys from the impact of gender-biased fertility strategies (gender-specific fertility stopping rules and sex-selective abortions). Results show strong impacts of gender-biased fertility strategies on education inequalities between girls and boys. Preferential treatment of boys also matters but appears to have a more limited impact for most outcomes. Further, our results suggest that gender-biased fertility strategies create gender inequalities in education both because girls and boys end up in systematically different families and because of gender inequalities in pecuniary investment within families. Since gender inequalities in education in India are partially the result of gender-biased fertility strategies, they are not likely to disappear until the strong desire to have a son does so.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Heather Congdon Fors","Annika Lindskog"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00941-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-46f54dbec2d75936","title":"Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States","abstract":"We examine whether sentiment influences aggregate demand by studying the relationship between the Michigan Survey expectations concerning national output growth and future economic activity at the state level. We instrument for local sentiments with political outcomes, positing that agents in states with a higher share of congressmen from the political party of the sitting President will be more optimistic. This instrument is strong in the first stage, and our results confirm a positive relationship between sentiments and future state economic activity that is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests.","wordCount":90,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Jess Benhabib","Mark M. Spiegel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12605","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-47000a2f3f6c2a7b","title":"Collecting and selling consumer information: Selling mechanisms matter","abstract":"This article analyzes how take-it-or-leave-it offers (TIOLI) and auctions impact the selling strategy of a data intermediary, the price of information and the amount of consumer data collected. TIOLI leads to a higher consumer surplus compared to auctions, but encourages the intermediary to collect more consumer information than auctions, which is detrimental to consumer privacy. We discuss regulatory measures to protect at the same time consumer surplus and privacy.","wordCount":69,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["David Bounie","Antoine Dubus","Patrick Waelbroeck"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103185","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-47093d045c24326f","title":"Status and the demand for visible goods: experimental evidence on conspicuous consumption","abstract":"Some economists argue that consumption of publicly visible goods is driven by social status. Making a causal inference about this claim is difficult with observational data. We conduct an experiment in which we vary both whether a purchase of a physical product is publicly visible or kept private and whether the income used for purchase is linked to social status or randomly assigned. Making consumption choices visible leads to a large increase in demand when income is linked to status, but not otherwise. We investigate the characteristics that mediate this effect and estimate its impact on welfare.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["David Clingingsmith","Roman M. Sheremeta"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9556-x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-470e6f4acb62ab13","title":"Information avoidance: An experimental test of anticipated regret","abstract":"One reason people may avoid potentially useful information is to eliminate anticipated regret. We develop a model of anticipated regret and use it to derive predictions about how the accuracy of information and the ability to mitigate negative states of the world affect the decision to be informed. The model predicts that higher information accuracy and more effective mitigation options reduce information avoidance. We test these predictions using a laboratory experiment with a real-effort task and uncertain payoffs. Subjects choose whether to receive free but imperfect information about the state of the world (the piece-rate for the effort task) before deciding on a costly mitigation investment, doing the real effort task, and then learning their final payoff. We vary both the accuracy of the information and the effectiveness of mitigation in a $$2\\times 2$$ 2 × 2 between-subjects experimental design. We find that increasing the accuracy of information increases information acquisition. Increasing mitigation effectiveness only increases informedness slightly, and the results are not significant. Overall, our results are consistent with our model of anticipated regret, but decision-making is noisier than predicted.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Therese A. Cavlovic","Brandon C. Koford","Lucas Rentschler"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09447-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-470f76b254383c14","title":"Contracting and search with heterogeneous principals and agents","abstract":"This paper incorporates a risk-neutral principal-agent problem into a random search model to study contracting and search in general equilibrium. I introduce heterogeneity in principals' and agents' production technologies in terms of the distribution of output across states of nature. Under optimal contracting, this heterogeneity can give rise to complementarity in contracting between specific principal and agent types. In contrast to complementarity in production, complementarity in contracting affects only the division of the surplus but not its size and can induce principals to engage in overly intense search before forming a match. I show that a reduction in search frictions and contractual innovations can induce principals to engage in overly intense search.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Jan Starmans"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105761","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4714364305d72726","title":"Industry Concentration and Information Technology","abstract":"Industry concentration has been rising in the United States since 1980. Does this signal declining competition and the need for a new antitrust policy? Or are other factors causing concentration to increase? This paper explores the role of proprietary information technology (IT), which could increase the productivity of top firms relative to others and raise their market share. Instrumental variable estimates find a strong link between proprietary IT and rising industry concentration, accounting for most of its growth. Moreover, the top four firms in each industry benefit disproportionately. Large investments in proprietary software—$250 billion per year—appear to significantly impact industry structure.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["James Bessen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/708936","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-4719e94453d3b379","title":"Damaged collateral and firm-level finance: Evidence from Russia’s war in Ukraine","abstract":"How much has Russia’s war in Ukraine damaged the collateral of Ukrainian firms, and how much damage has that caused the Ukrainian financial system? We address this question using unusually rich high-frequency supervisory data of Ukrainian banks combined with a survey of banks on the location and condition of corporate borrowers’ collateral between February and November 2022. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in collateral value resulting from damage to collateral, we find that a 10-percent reduction in the collateral-loan ratio lowers the probability of getting any new loan by nearly eight percentage points; new lending falls by over two percentage points. Our results additionally imply that the same reduction in collateral value raises default rates and banks’ assessment of firms’ probability of default by approximately eight and four percentage points, respectively. The results imply that, in the absence of sufficient aid to repair the damage, Ukraine may experience reduced investment and lower economic growth in the future.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Solomiya Shpak","John S. Earle","Scott Gehlbach","Mariia Panga"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-471d79e97b96047d","title":"The Lasting Impact of Grandfathers: Class, Occupational Status, and Earnings over Three Generations in Sweden 1815–2011","abstract":"This article examines socioeconomic mobility across three generations in Sweden from 1815 and until 2011. Using longitudinal micro-level data from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database (SEDD), we examine the transmission of socio-economic status along three different dimensions; social class (HISCLASS), occupational status (HISCAM), and earnings. We demonstrate an association between grandfathers' class or occupational status and the outcome of grandsons, when controlling for the association between fathers and sons. The associations remain stable over time and are stronger for paternal grandfathers than for maternal. For earnings, we find no grandparental association.","wordCount":90,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Martin Dribe","Jonas Helgertz"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000991","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4744965a4ef3e6a2","title":"Understanding risk of bubbles in cryptocurrencies","abstract":"As cryptocurrencies emerged only recently, they are subject to only very limited financial regulations. In this paper we study which variables can predict bubbles in the prices of eight major cryptocurrencies, focusing on uncertainty measures as predictors. We detect multiple bubble periods for all eight cryptocurrencies, particularly in 2017 and early 2018. We find that higher volatility, trading volume and transactions are positively associated with the presence of bubbles across cryptocurrencies. Regarding the uncertainty variables, the VIX-index consistently demonstrates negative relationships with bubble occurrence, while the EPU-index mostly exhibits positive associations with bubbles. These results may assist authorities in designing appropriate regulations.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Fredrik Aurbakken Enoksen","Ch.J. Landsnes","Katarína Lučivjanská","Péter Molnár"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.05.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-474f393e26a1bb96","title":"Profit Sharing and Incentives","abstract":"We model a firm as a team production process subject to moral hazard and derive the optimal profit sharing scheme between productive workers and outside investors together with incentive contracts based on noisy performance signals. More productive agents with noisier performance signals are more likely to receive shares which can explain why managers are motivated by shares, and law or consulting firms form partnerships. A firm that grows by opening branches is held almost entirely by outside investors when its output noise grows faster than the number of branches. Otherwise, insiders hold substantial amount of a large firm’s shares.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Emre Ozdenoren","Oleg Rubanov"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102857","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-477d7c5eaa87f0d0","title":"Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the United States","abstract":"This paper examines the role of agricultural diversity in the process of development. Using data from US counties and exploiting climate-induced variation in agricultural production patterns, I show that mid-nineteenth-century agricultural diversity had positive long-run effects on population density and income per capita. During the Second Industrial Revolution, agricultural diversity fostered industrialization, diversification within manufacturing, patent activity, formation of new labor skills, and the expansion of knowledge- and skill-intensive industries. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that diversity spurs the acquisition of new ideas and new skills because of the presence of cross-sector spillovers and complementarities.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Martín Fiszbein"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190285","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-477f2d40588a119a","title":"Clawback adoptions, managerial compensation incentives, capital investment mix and efficiency","abstract":"We present evidence that clawback adoptions, by dissuading accruals management, motivate managers to shift capital investment mix from R&D to capex to preserve earnings-based compensation, thereby lowering capital investment efficiency. These effects are more pronounced for firms prone to financial misreporting, which is consistent with board incentives to adopt clawbacks, and with managerial incentives to substitute real for accruals-based earnings management to preserve performance-based compensation. Path analyses lend support to performance-based compensation serving as a channel through which clawback adoptions influence capital investment mix and efficiency. These findings extend and reinterpret prior findings and are timely given the Security and Exchange Commission's newly issued Rule 10D-1 that makes clawback provision adoptions a condition for U.S. exchange listings and explicitly requested “comment on any effect the proposed requirements may have on efficiency, competition, and capital formation.”","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Gary C. Biddle","Lilian H. Chan","Jeong Hwan Joo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102506","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-47869ddc9ec7f22f","title":"Omitted budget constraint bias in discrete-choice demand models","abstract":"A large body of discrete-choice demand studies estimate a demand model in which the consumer’s budget constraint is not taken into account. We illustrate how incorrectly specifying the consideration set, when in fact the budget constraint binds for some products, may bias the demand estimates. We illustrate and quantify the nature of the bias in three ways: (i) in analytical examples; (ii) in field data commonly used in the literature and (iii) in a Monte Carlo study. We find that the price sensitivity can be substantially lower when correctly imposing the budget constraint, and own-price elasticities are typically overestimated although the direction of the own-price elasticity bias is in general ambiguous and depends on the income distribution.","wordCount":117,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Martin Pesendorfer","Pasquale Schiraldi","Daniel Silva-Junior"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102889","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-478e5e2c4ea31827","title":"International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions","abstract":"We develop a framework combining dynamic, intertemporal choices of general-equilibrium macro models with microfoundations of modern trade theory to study sanctions. In a two-country, two-sector setup, Home holds a comparative advantage in producing differentiated consumption goods via heterogeneous firms with endogenous entry, while Foreign in homogeneous intermediate goods from a fixed number of firms. Sanctions include trade bans and financial restrictions excluding particular Foreign agents from markets. In our model, sanctions reallocate resources across and within countries, affecting production, exchange rates, and welfare, with larger welfare losses when targeting sectors of comparative disadvantage. Focusing only on long-run outcomes, overlooking initial dynamics, inaccurately assesses welfare impacts. Sanctions weaken international comovement and fragment markets but leave business cycles intact.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Fabio Ghironi","Daisoon Kim","Galip Kemal Ozhan"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103810","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-47adda553e9e70cc","title":"Violent Video Games and Violent Crime","abstract":"Video games are an increasingly popular leisure activity. As many best-selling games contain hyper-realistic violence, many researchers and policymakers have hypothesized that violent games cause violent behaviors. Laboratory experiments have found evidence suggesting that violent video games increase aggression. Before drawing policy conclusions about the effect of violent games on actual behavior, these experimental studies should be subjected to tests of external validity. Our study uses a quasi-experimental methodology to identify the short-run and medium-run effects of violent game sales on violent crime using time variation in retail unit sales data of the top 30 selling video games and violent criminal offenses from both the Uniform Crime Report and the National Incident-Based Reporting System from 2005 to 2011. We find no evidence of an increase in crime associated with video games and perhaps a decrease.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Scott W. Cunningham","Benjamin Engelstätter","Michael R. Ward"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12139","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-47ba36e9bd870231","title":"Welfare effects of patent protection in a growth model with r&d and capital accumulation","abstract":"This study explores the welfare effects of patent protection in a Romer-type expanding variety model in which R&D and capital accumulation are both engines of growth. It shows that the comparison between the productivity of R&D and that of capital plays an important role in the welfare analysis. When the relative productivity of R&D compared to capital is high (low), social welfare takes an inverted-U shape for (is decreasing in) the strength of patent protection, and the welfare-maximizing degree of patent protection is no greater than (identical to) the growth-maximizing degree. Moreover, the model is calibrated to the US economy and the numerical results support these welfare implications.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Yibai Yang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000233","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-47d71ead620a85e5","title":"Social outcomes of energy use in the United Kingdom: Household energy footprints and their links to well-being","abstract":"How energy relates to human need satisfaction, for whom, and with what wellbeing outcomes has remained under-researched. We address this gap by investigating the relationship between household energy footprint and well-being in the UK. Our results indicate that car and air transportation contributed the most to the total energy footprint of high-income and high-energy users. We find significant inequalities in the distribution of energy use and that the top energy users with high well-being are driving excess energy use. A more detailed analysis reveals that individuals with protected characteristics are particularly vulnerable to energy poverty and that their contribution to overall energy demand is negligible. We find that focusing on well-being steers the attention towards questions of sufficiency, overconsumption as well as the context within which we satisfy needs. Tackling the issues of energy poverty and inequalities are important for lowering energy demand and need to be addressed as a matter of climate justice.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Marta Baltruszewicz","J. Steinberger","Jouni Paavola","Diana Ivanova","Lina Brand-Correa","Anne Owen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107686","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-47dd50d31e1fb8f1","title":"Dividends and taxes: The moderating role of agency conflicts","abstract":"We find that potential conflicts between majority and minority shareholders strongly influence how dividends respond to taxes. When the controlling shareholder has a smaller stake, the incentives to extract private benefits are stronger – a shareholder conflict that can be mitigated by dividend payout. We study a large and clean regulatory shock in Norway that increases the dividend tax rate for all individuals from 0% to 28%. We find that dividends drop less the higher the potential shareholder conflict, suggesting that dividend policy trades off tax and agency considerations. The average payout ratio falls by 30 percentage points when the conflict potential is low, but by only 18 points when it is high. These lower dividends cannot be explained by higher salaries to shareholders or diverse liquidity needs. We also observe a strong increase in indirect ownership of high-conflict firms through tax-exempt holding companies and suggest policy implications for intercorporate dividend taxation.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Jānis Bērziņš","Øyvind Bøhren","Bogdan Stacescu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.07.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-47e36377eab8087b","title":"A Counterfactual Analysis of Amazon’s Acquisitions Under the 2023 Merger Guidelines","abstract":"The fact that Amazon was allowed to acquire hundreds of companies as it rose to become the fourth most valuable U.S. company in terms of market capitalization and a leader in three lines of business has been viewed by some as damning evidence of underenforcement by the United States antitrust authorities. In this article we ask the obvious question: If the 2023 Guidelines had been in place instead of prior guidelines, what effects would they have had on Amazon’s development? To provide an answer, we identify relevant changes in the guidelines and then select for review a subset of Amazon’s 280 acquisitions over the period 1998 to 2022. In our counterfactual, we analyze five horizontal acquisitions, four vertical acquisitions, and two sets of serial acquisitions . We find that the 2023 Guidelines would have broadened the bases for potential challenges and thereby would have increased the likelihood that Amazon would have faced greater resistance from antitrust authorities. The lack of safe harbors, the plasticity of individual Guidelines, and the optionality to challenge mergers under alternative theories would have exposed most of Amazon’s acquisitions to challenge. The lack of meaningful guidance about which individual transactions would have been challenged suggests that going forward enforcer discretion will play a yet larger role. Regarding Amazon’s serial acquisitions of nearly one hundred technology firms, we find that the 2023 Guidelines would have provided multiple rationales for intervention. Therein lies a weakness in the Guidelines and in antitrust policy: the lack of a framework for assessing both the anticompetitive and procompetitive effects of such acquisitions in high-tech industries.","wordCount":263,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Edward A. Snyder","Ian Simmons","Sergei Zaslavsky"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09965-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4802f10a5ec35e54","title":"Financing the African Colonial State: The Revenue Imperative and Forced Labor","abstract":"Although recent studies on African colonial tax systems have deepened our understanding of early fiscal capacity building efforts in the region, they have largely ignored the contributions from a widely used but invisible source of state revenue: that of labor contributions. Exploiting data on corvée systems in French Africa, this is the first article to make these in-kind taxes “visible” by estimating a lower bound of how much they augmented governments' revenue base. Revealing that labor taxes constituted in most places the largest component of early colonial budgets, I argue that studies on historical taxation need to make a greater effort to integrate this significant source of government revenue into their analysis.","wordCount":112,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Marlous van Waijenburg"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000049","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-48099e472ca3eebc","title":"The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938","abstract":"This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record to identify plausibly exogenous variation, we show that this finding is robust to potential endogeneity.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Seán Kenny","Jason Lennard","John D. Turner"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101357","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-480e914fb3c32a29","title":"Estimation of productivity and markups with price dispersion: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing during economic transition","abstract":"We estimate firm productivity and markups in the presence of heterogeneous output and input prices. We assume that firms are monopolistically competitive in the output market and that state firms are favored and pay lower prices for inputs due to political connections. The proxy‐variable (or called the control‐function‐based) approach of structurally identifying production functions and productivity is customized to our new setting. Our approach solves the underidentification problem inherent in the standard proxy‐variable method. We investigate the Chinese transportation equipment industry and find evidence against perfect competition and price homogeneity. We also find that productivity and markup differentials and dynamics are consistent with the market‐oriented reforms in China.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Shunan Zhao","Bing Qian","Subal C. Kumbhakar"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12457","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4813c9b9beff51f5","title":"Informality, enforcement and growth","abstract":"This paper develops a two-sector growth model with formal and informal sectors for an economy that cares about redistribution and illustrates its relationship with the enforcement level. The technology gap and labour rigidity explicate the duality. The state can tax the formal sector to subsidise informal income and finance public infrastructure. Alternatively, enforcement, which is costly and corresponds to a variety of discrete components from the security of property rights and integrity of contracts to control of corruptions, can be chosen to favour the formal sector and discourage the informal sector. It is observed that weaker enforcement required to accommodate some degree of informality, which releases tax burden from the formal sector needed for redistribution, can accelerate growth rate. However, sufficiently weaker enforcement dampens the formal sector expansion and growth rate. The growth rate registers an inverted-U shaped relationship against the enforcement level. The optimum enforcement can, however, be higher without formal labour union and subsidisation. This must be higher for welfare maximisation than that of growth rate, especially when the consumer cares about the quality of enforcement.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Dibyendu Maiti","Chandril Bhattacharyya"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4821f076705ea74d","title":"What Is the Case for Paid Maternity Leave?","abstract":"We assess the case for generous government-funded maternity leave, focusing on a series of policy reforms in Norway that expanded paid leave from 18 to 35 weeks. We find the reforms do not crowd out unpaid leave and that mothers spend more time at home without a reduction in family income. The increased maternity leave has little effect on children's schooling, parental earnings and labor force participation, completed fertility, marriage, or divorce. The expansions, whose net costs amounted to 0.25% of GDP, have negative redistribution properties and imply a considerable increases in taxes at a cost to economic efficiency.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Gordon B. Dahl","Katrine Vellesen Løken","Magne Mogstad","Kari Vea Salvanes"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00602","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4824a3dea65dd14e","title":"Resilient Leaders and Institutional Reform: Theory and Evidence","abstract":"Strengthening executive constraints is one of the key means of improving political governance. This paper argues that resilient leaders who face a lower probability of being replaced are less likely to reform institutions in the direction of constraining executive power. We test this idea empirically using data on leaders since 1875 using two proxies of resilience: whether a leader survives long enough to die in office, and whether recent natural disasters occur during the leader's tenure. We show that both are associated with lower rates of leader turnover and a lower probability of a transition to strong executive constraints. This effect is robust across a wide range of specifications. Moreover, in line with the theory, it is specific to strengthening executive constraints rather than generalized political reform.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Timothy Besley","Torsten Persson","Marta Reynal‐Querol"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12208","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-48284b2d8c557b43","title":"Green infrastructure and air pollution: Evidence from highways connecting two megacities in China","abstract":"Following market liberalization, the vehicle population in China has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This paper examines the causal impact of the opening of a heavily used high speed rail line connecting two megacities in China in 2015, Chengdu and Chongqing, on air pollution. We use high-frequency and high spatial resolution data to track pollution along major highways linking the two cities. Our approach involves the use of a novel augmented regression discontinuity in time approach that incorporates machine learning to inform our specification choice in the first stage. Our estimates show that CO is reduced by 6.4% and PM2.5 by 7.1% along the main affected highway. These findings are supported using a difference-in-differences approach.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Wang-Sheng Lee","Trang My Tran","Lamont Bo Yu"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102884","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-482cac5e790f86c1","title":"Why Is Infant Mortality Higher in the United States than in Europe?","abstract":"The United States has higher infant mortality than peer countries. In this paper, we combine microdata from the United States with similar data from four European countries to investigate this US infant mortality disadvantage. The US disadvantage persists after adjusting for potential differential reporting of births near the threshold of viability. While the importance of birth weight varies across comparison countries, relative to all comparison countries the United States has similar neonatal (<1 month) mortality but higher postneonatal (1–12 months) mortality. We document similar patterns across census divisions within the United States. The postneonatal mortality disadvantage is driven by poor birth outcomes among lower socioeconomic status individuals.","wordCount":107,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Alice Chen","Emily Oster","Heidi Williams"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140224","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-482d8e60f94c015e","title":"The Economics of Crowdfunding","abstract":"An entrepreneur finances her project via crowdfunding. She chooses a funding mechanism ( fixed or flexible), a price, and a funding goal. Under fixed funding, money is refunded if the goal is not met; under flexible funding, there is no refund. Backers observe signals about project value and decide whether to contribute or postpone purchase to the retail stage. Using the linkage principle, we show that the optimal campaign uses fixed funding. Furthermore, we show that an entrepreneur who is not financially constrained can approximately extract full surplus using fixed funding. Therefore, crowdfunding is attractive to both small and large entrepreneurs.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Jen-Wen Chang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170183","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-48352d5917cb7f88","title":"Integration of medical care and elderly care: Chinese experience and outcomes of older adults","abstract":"Separated supply of medical and elderly care in China have been worrying issues especially in the aging era as medical needs and elderly care needs often interplay with each other among aged people. Utilizing panel data from CLHLS and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, this article examines China's 2016 nationwide pilot on integration of medical care and elderly care (IMEC) at city level. Results reveal that medical and elderly care integration significantly decreases one-year mortality of the elderly people. Further mechanism analysis shows that the IMEC policy likely benefits older adults through enhanced health outcomes, and extended delivery of medical care and elderly care. Our study emphasizes the critical importance of the integration of medical and elderly care for addressing the multifaceted needs of the aging population, providing a foundation for informed policy decisions and future interventions.","wordCount":136,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Chunfeng Zhang","Xiaoyan Lei","Yutong Chen"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102641","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4836009bec4a14c6","title":"Outcome bias in managerial decisions","abstract":"Decisions informed by past events can be distorted when outcomes partially determined by chance are misinterpreted as being purely skill-based. This can lead to outcome bias, where decisions are evaluated based on results rather than on the quality of the performance that produced them. Outcome bias is prevalent across various domains, including managerial decision-making. This paper investigates outcome bias in professional football, a highly competitive industry. The analysis focuses on managers who were replaced mid-season between 2017/18 and 2024/25 in the top divisions of the five major European football leagues. The main finding is that clubs tend to change managers in response to recent match results rather than to underlying performance indicators. This behavior reflects an economically inefficient decision-making process driven by outcome bias.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Jan C. van Ours"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102872","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-48463c01f83ea34c","title":"Political ideology and international capital allocation","abstract":"Does investors’ political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by U.S. institutional investors. Ideological alignment on both economic and social issues plays a role. Our empirical strategy ensures direct economic effects of foreign elections or government ties between countries are not driving the result. Ideological distance between countries also explains variation in bilateral investment. Combined, our findings imply ideological alignment is an important, omitted factor in models of international capital allocation.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Elisabeth Kempf","Mancy Luo","Larissa Schäfer","Margarita Tsoutsoura"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.02.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-485678ec575d707e","title":"Is high-speed rail heading towards a low-carbon industry? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China","abstract":"Existing studies have investigated the environmental dividends of substituting high-speed rail (HSR) for other energy-intensive vehicles from an engineering standpoint, but they have yet to explore the economic effects of HSR and the associated carbon emissions reduction benefits. To fill the research gap, we use panel data from 285 Chinese cities between 2004 and 2014, and employ a spatial difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of HSR opening on industrial CO 2 emissions. After controlling for spillover effects from neighboring HSR cities, our results show that cities offering HSR services significantly reduce their own industrial CO 2 emissions. This finding is robust and is unaffected by outliers, control group selection, time trends, geography and expectation factors, or endogeneity. The mechanism test reveals that the structural transformation effect, technological innovation effect, and investment attractiveness effect are three intermediate influence channels. Further research finds that the emissions reduction benefit increases as the spatial and temporal intensities of HSR openings ascend the ladder, and HSR services have a spillover effect within a 300-kilometer radius. Moreover, the carbon benefit of China’s HSR far surpasses its carbon footprint, indicating that China’s HSR is green after accounting for economic emissions reductions that were often neglected in prior research. Based on these findings, we recommend that China accelerate HSR expansion in order to reduce carbon emissions in a scientific and responsible manner.","wordCount":226,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Liang Nie","ZhongXiang Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101355","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-486b67cb8561d1c2","title":"A Leverage Theory of Tying in Two-Sided Markets with Nonnegative Price Constraints","abstract":"Motivated by recent antitrust cases in markets with zero-pricing, we develop a leverage theory of tying in two-sided markets. In the presence of the nonnegative price constraint, the Chicago school critique of tie-ins fails to hold. In the independent products case, tying provides a mechanism to circumvent the constraint in the tied market without inviting aggressive responses by the rival firm. In the complementary products case, the “price squeeze” mechanism cannot be used to extract surplus from the more efficient rival firm without tying. We identify conditions under which tying in two-sided markets is profitable and explore its welfare implications.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Jay Pil Choi","Doh‐Shin Jeon"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180234","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4873e5e0a988ee07","title":"The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots","abstract":"We use detailed administrative data to study the adjustment of local labor markets to industrial robots in Germany. Robot exposure, as predicted by a shift-share variable, is associated with displacement effects in manufacturing, but those are fully offset by new jobs in services. The incidence mostly falls on young workers just entering the labor force. Automation is related to more stable employment within firms for incumbents, and this is driven by workers taking over new tasks in their original plants. Several measures indicate that those new jobs are of higher quality than the previous ones. Young workers also adapt their educational choices, and substitute away from vocational training towards colleges and universities. Finally, industrial robots have benefited workers in occupations with complementary tasks, such as managers or technical scientists.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Wolfgang Dauth","Sebastian Findeisen","Jens Suedekum","Nicole Woessner"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab012","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-48803493e15b8558","title":"Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship","abstract":"We show that collateral constraints restrict firm entry and postentry growth, using French administrative data and cross‐sectional variation in local house‐price appreciation as shocks to collateral values. We control for local demand shocks by comparing treated homeowners to controls in the same region that do not experience collateral shocks: renters and homeowners with an outstanding mortgage, who (in France) cannot take out a second mortgage. In both comparisons, an increase in collateral value leads to a higher probability of becoming an entrepreneur. Conditional on entry, treated entrepreneurs use more debt, start larger firms, and remain larger in the long run.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Martin C. Schmalz","David Sraer","David Thesmar"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12468","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-488e9d84f5988b4c","title":"Search platforms: showrooming and price parity clauses","abstract":"We provide a model in which consumers search for firms directly or through platforms. Platforms lower search costs but charge firms for the transactions they facilitate. Platform fees raise the possibility of showrooming, in which consumers search on a platform but then switch and buy directly to take advantage of lower direct prices. In settings like this, search platforms like Booking.com have adopted price parity clauses, requiring firms to offer their best prices on the platform, arguing this is needed to prevent showrooming. However, despite allowing for showrooming in our model, we find that price parity clauses often harm consumers.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Chengsi Wang","Julian Wright"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12305","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4892b8b09e5f6cf1","title":"Comparing Asset Pricing Models","abstract":"A Bayesian asset pricing test is derived that is easily computed in closed form from the standard F ‐statistic. Given a set of candidate traded factors, we develop a related test procedure that permits the computation of model probabilities for the collection of all possible pricing models that are based on subsets of the given factors. We find that the recent models of Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015a, 2015b) and Fama and French (2015, 2016) are dominated by a variety of models that include a momentum factor, along with value and profitability factors that are updated monthly.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Francisco Barillas","Jay Shanken"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12607","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-489aa747245be6f7","title":"Women’s economic empowerment and intimate partner violence","abstract":"This study explores the relationship between women’s economic empowerment and intimate partner violence (IPV), measured as women’s hospital visits for assault. Using longitudinal Swedish administrative data, I proxy women’s economic empowerment with a measure of potential relative earnings of married spouses caused by local changes in gender-specific labour demand. The findings reveal that an increase in potential relative earnings increases the probability of women’s hospital visits for injuries caused by assault, and the effect is particularly pronounced for women with low baseline bargaining power. Furthermore, exploiting detailed information on type of hospital visit, diagnosis and medical actions taken at the hospital, I show that the increase in hospital visits for assault is, at least in part, driven by an increase in care-seeking for IPV-related injuries rather than an increase in IPV itself.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Sanna Bergvall"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105211","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-489c3051bd620d7c","title":"Illusion of control and the pursuit of authority","abstract":"We measure participants’ willingness to pay for transparently useless authority—the right to make a completely uninformed task decision. We further elicit participants’ beliefs about receiving their preferred outcome if they make the decision themselves, and if another participant makes the decision for them. We find that participants pay more to make the decision themselves if they also believe that they can thus increase the probability of getting their preferred outcome. Illusion of control therefore exists in a controlled laboratory environment with monetary incentives and is connected to peoples’ pursuit of authority.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Randolph Sloof","Ferdinand A. von Siemens"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9499-7","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-48a65a41e7e3ec33","title":"Not quite the best response: truth-telling, strategy-proof matching, and the manipulation of others","abstract":"Following the advice of economists, school choice programs around the world have lately been adopting strategy-proof mechanisms. However, experimental evidence presents a high variation of truth-telling rates for strategy-proof mechanisms. We crash test the connection between the strategy-proofness of the mechanism and truth-telling. We employ a within-subjects design by making subjects take two simultaneous decisions: one with no strategic uncertainty and one with some uncertainty and partial information about the strategies of other players. We find that providing information about the out-of-equilibrium strategies played by others has a negative and significant effect on truth-telling rates. That is, most participants in our within-subjects design try and fail to best-respond to changes in the environment. We also find that more sophisticated subjects are more likely to play the dominant strategy (truth-telling) across all the treatments. These results have potentially important implications for the design of markets based on strategy-proof matching mechanisms.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Pablo Guillén","Rustamdjan Hakimov"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9505-0","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-48a69da6a6494ee9","title":"Midweek effect on soccer performance: Evidence from the german bundesliga","abstract":"The home advantage phenomenon is a well‐established feature in sports competitions. In this study, we examine data from 2,013 soccer matches played in the German Bundesliga during the seasons from 2007–2008 to 2016–2017. Using a very rich data set, our econometric analysis that is based on matching methods reveals that the usual home advantage disappears when the game is in the middle of the week instead of being on the weekend. Our results indicate that, as the midweek matches are unevenly allocated among teams, the actual schedules of the Bundesliga favor teams with fewer home games in midweek. The study also shows that these soccer‐specific findings may have some implications for the design of contests in general.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Alex Krumer","Michael Lechner"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12465","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-48cd540a8ffd1d7e","title":"Globalization and structural transformation: The role of tradable services","abstract":"This paper studies how globalization impacts structural transformation from goods to services. I construct a multi-country, multi-sector model in which the transformation occurs through changes in income, prices, comparative advantage, or input–output linkages. I parameterize it with data from 1995 to 2018 for 66 countries covering diverse stages of economic development. Decomposition exercises show that globalization outweighs productivity growth in shaping structural transformation and that globalization’s impact primarily operates through comparative advantage. Counterfactual exercises reveal globalization’s heterogeneous impact on countries’ structural transformation. I characterize the underlying factor behind this result: Globalization affected countries’ transformation to the extent that it altered their comparative advantage. In countries with sector-neutral globalization—where export trade costs relative to import trade costs changed at similar rates for goods and services—comparative advantage and structural transformation were minimally impacted. In countries with sector-biased globalization, the transformation accelerated when the globalization shifted comparative advantage toward services, but decelerated otherwise.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Sang Min Lee"],"year":2026,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104220","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-48da872168dfb7db","title":"Banking on innovation: Listed and non-listed equity investing, evidence from société générale de Belgique, 1850–1934","abstract":"Société Générale de Belgique was the world's first universal bank. It pioneered another innovation: investing in non-listed equity. We use hand-collected data to show that the bank earned significant positive risk-adjusted returns from 1850 to 1934. This offset its flat return on the listed equity portfolio and underperforming bond portfolio. Other Belgian universal banks followed this strategy. As such, we argue that this innovation laid the groundwork for other financial institutions to invest in listed and non-listed assets.","wordCount":78,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Gertjan Verdickt","Marc Deloof"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101593","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-48e9244f1c1189f9","title":"Educational and gender heterogeneity of the rural-urban earnings premium: New evidence from Norway","abstract":"We explore urban earnings premiums for young, native, rural-to-urban movers in Norway. Using an augmented difference-in-differences estimator (DiD-TR) on microdata we challenge previous claims about urban earnings premium's size and sources. Conventional econometric estimators understate the static premium and overstate dynamic premiums. We find that migrants exhibit lower mean but faster pre-move earnings growth than non-migrants. Post-move, the static earnings premium dominates. The observed trajectory is related to frequent pre-move changes of industrial sector, presumably to obtain better job-worker matches. Post-move, these changes occur less frequently. Highly educated females exhibit largest static premiums (34%), less-educated females least (24%), males an intermediate amount. Our findings suggest that cities primarily generate earnings premiums through agglomeration-based efficiencies and superior job-worker matches varying heterogeneously by education and gender.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["George Galster","Liv Osland"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103989","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-48f40ef60b8c3131","title":"Disguising Lies—Image Concerns and Partial Lying in Cheating Games","abstract":"We study equilibrium reporting behavior in cheating games when agents have a fixed cost of lying and image concerns not to be perceived as a liar. We show that equilibria naturally arise in which agents with low costs of lying randomize among a set of the highest potential reports. Such equilibria induce a distribution of reports in line with observed experimental patterns. We also find that higher image concerns lead to an increase in the range of reported lies, while the effect of the fixed cost of lying is the opposite.","wordCount":91,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Kiryl Khalmetski","Dirk Sliwka"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170193","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-49078453b6c43189","title":"Fintech Borrowers: Lax Screening or Cream-Skimming?","abstract":"We study the personal credit market using unique individual-level data covering fintech and traditional lenders. We show that fintech lenders acquire market share by lending first to higher-risk borrowers and then to safer borrowers, and rely mainly on hard information to make credit decisions. Fintech borrowers are significantly more likely to default than neighbor individuals with the same characteristics borrowing from traditional financial institutions. Furthermore, they tend to experience a short-lived reduction in the cost of credit, because their indebtedness increases more than non-fintech borrowers after loan origination. However, fintech lenders’ pricing strategies are likely to take this into account.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Marco Di Maggio","Vincent Yao"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa142","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-490fc5f51d0a8ed9","title":"Tax compliance across sociodemographic categories: Meta-analyses of survey studies in 111 countries","abstract":"Tax compliance varies across sociodemographic categories. However, research on the relationships between compliance and age, sex, education as well as income level shows inconsistent results, both regarding the direction of the relationship and its size. The current meta-analyses target to merge findings in survey studies on age, sex, education, and income and estimate the strength of the impact on compliance by taking into account geographical regions. In four meta-analyses, comprising 459 samples (N = 614,286) from 111 countries published between 1958 and 2012, average estimated effect sizes were small, ranging from r = 0.12 for the relationship between compliance and age, r = 0.06 for sex, r = -0.02 for education to r = -0.04 for income. These effects are more pronounced in Western countries. It thus appears sociodemographic characteristics have little impact on compliance, but nevertheless should be controlled for in tax research.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Eva Hofmann","Martin Voracek","Christine Bock","Erich Kirchler"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2017.06.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-490ffeb2d19903ed","title":"Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence","abstract":"We analyse the relationship between declining population growth and automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993–2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Ana Lucia Abeliansky","Klaus Prettner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.02.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-49157634f01ea980","title":"Evolutions in Consumption Inequality and Poverty in Greece: The Impact of the Crisis and Austerity Policies","abstract":"Greece is the country hit hardest by the crisis and subsequent fiscal consolidation strategies, suffering a cumulative output loss of about 30 percent since 2008. The present paper presents evidence that along with declining average living standards, consumption inequality has seriously grown, fueled primarily by a disproportionate drop in the consumption levels of what can be considered the middle class. Although poverty has not significantly risen in relative terms, it climbs to around 45 percent once the poverty threshold is anchored to pre‐crisis levels. Furthermore, significant indirect tax hikes have further increased inequality in consumption expenditure. The paper also shows that several reforms launched in the name of reducing labor costs, broadening the tax base or rationalizing the targeting of social benefits have had detrimental effects on one of the most vulnerable population groups, namely families with children, thus implying that the social consequences of the crisis will be long‐lasting.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Γεωργία Καπλάνογλου","Vassilis T. Rapanos"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12287","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-491c2367acb8c009","title":"A Model of Financialization of Commodities","abstract":"We analyze how institutional investors entering commodity futures markets, referred to as the financialization of commodities, affect commodity prices. Institutional investors care about their performance relative to a commodity index. We find that all commodity futures prices, volatilities, and correlations go up with financialization, but more so for index futures than for nonindex futures. The equity‐commodity correlations also increase. We demonstrate how financial markets transmit shocks not only to futures prices but also to commodity spot prices and inventories. Spot prices go up with financialization, and shocks to any index commodity spill over to all storable commodity prices.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Suleyman Basak","Anna Pavlova"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12408","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-491cade8a4b41dbf","title":"CSR in an Asymmetric Duopoly with Environmental Externality","abstract":"We investigate a linear state differential game describing an asymmetric Cournot duopoly with capacity accumulation á la Ramsey and a negative environmental externality (pollution), in which one of the firms has adopted corporate social responsibility (CSR) in its statute, and therefore includes consumer surplus and the environmental effects of production in its objective function. If the market is sufficiently large, the CSR firm sells more, accumulates more capital, and earns higher profits than its profit-seeking rival.","wordCount":76,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Luca Lambertini","Арсен Палестини","Alessandro Tampieri"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12140","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-492bb905839f56a9","title":"The labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation: Evidence from city–county mergers in China","abstract":"In this paper, we examine the labor market outcomes of jurisdictional consolidation, focusing on the effect of city–county mergers in China between 2011 and 2018 on the wages of migrant workers and local residents. Under the merger reform, city districts were consolidated with nearby counties, expanding the jurisdiction under the centralized control of the prefecture government. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that wages increased by 3.1% for migrant workers and 10.4% for local residents in consolidated jurisdictions. We attribute these effects to local economic growth and the resulting differentiated labor demand for migrant and local workers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Shiyu Bo","Yi Wang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103788","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-492c3792c319aeb9","title":"The Effect of Export Promotion on Firm-Level Performance","abstract":"Most countries promote exports. This paper answers two questions: Does export promotion improve firm performance, and do any benefits outweigh costs? We solve self-selection problems by accounting for an extensive set of firm characteristics. In addition, we distinguish firms that self-selected into promotion services from firms the Danish Trade Council approached based on observed information. We find that export promotion increases sales, value added, employment, and value added per worker. For small firms, summing expenditures on export promotion, subsidies, and tax distortions, the gain in value added is roughly three times higher than the direct costs of export promotion.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Jakob Roland Munch","Georg Schaur"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150410","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4932a43831358d66","title":"Conditional cash lotteries increase COVID-19 vaccination rates","abstract":"Conditional cash lotteries (CCLs) provide people with opportunities to win monetary prizes only if they make specific behavioral changes. We conduct a case study of Ohio's Vax-A-Million initiative, the first CCL targeting COVID-19 vaccinations. Forming a synthetic control from other states, we find that Ohios incentive scheme increases the vaccinated share of state population by 1.5 percent (0.7 pp), costing sixty-eight dollars per person persuaded to vaccinate. We show this causes significant reductions in COVID-19, preventing at least one infection for every six vaccinations that the lottery had successfully encouraged. These findings are promising for similar CCL public health initiatives.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Andrew T. Barber","Jeremy West"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102578","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-49528258d8518cf2","title":"Optimal vaccine subsidies for endemic diseases","abstract":"In Goodkin-Gold et al. (2021), we analyzed optimal subsidies for a vaccine against an epidemic outbreak like Covid-19. This companion paper alters the underlying epidemiological model to suit endemic diseases requiring continuous vaccination of new cohorts-also suiting an epidemic like Covid-19 if, following Gans (2020), one assumes peaks are leveled by social distancing. We obtain qualitatively similar results: across market structures ranging from perfect competition to monopoly, the subsidy needed to induce first-best vaccination coverage on the private market is highest for moderately infectious diseases, which invite the most free riding; extremely infectious diseases drive more consumers to become vaccinated, attenuating externalities. Stylized calibrations to HIV, among other diseases, suggest that first-best subsidies can be exorbitantly high when suppliers have market power, rationalizing alternative policies observed in practice such as bulk purchases negotiated by the government on behalf of the consumers.","wordCount":141,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Matthew Goodkin-Gold","Michael Kremer","Christopher M. Snyder","Heidi Williams"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102840","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-49564de870442c48","title":"Smithian growth in the little divergence: a general equilibrium analysis","abstract":"To address growing concerns on the representativeness of real wages, we generate new estimates of GDP pc in pre-industrial England and Italy, as well as new exploratory estimates for Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland, Spain and Sweden, with Groth and Persson's (2016) general equilibrium model. Our results question the robustness of the current theoretical consensus on the “little divergence” and suggest an alternative hypothesis: north-western Europe saw faster Smithian growth than the rest of Europe after 1500.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["David Chilosi","Carlo Ciccarelli"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101682","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-495b98e435616773","title":"Mortality Inequality in Canada and the United States: Divergent or Convergent Trends?","abstract":"Mortality is a crucial indicator of well-being, and recent mortality trends have been a subject of public debate in many Western countries. This paper compares mortality inequality in Canada and the United States over the period 1990/91 through 2010/11. In Canada, mortality inequality remained constant among the youngest but increased for men over 24 and women over 14. In contrast, in the United States, mortality inequality fell for children and youth and either modestly increased or held steady at older ages. By 2010/11, the initially higher US rates of infant and child mortality had almost converged to their Canadian counterparts.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Michael Baker","Janet Currie","Hannes Schwandt"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703259","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-495c4daa4a4d82ef","title":"Do place-based tax incentives create jobs?","abstract":"In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of place-based payroll taxes in stimulating local employment by exploiting a unique policy setting in Norway, where a system of geographically differentiated payroll taxes was suddenly abolished due to an EU regulation. The reform was enforced independently of the regional labor market developments, creating arguably exogenous variation in the payroll tax rates that firms in different local labor markets faced over time. We find evidence of partial shifting of payroll tax increases on to worker wages as well as a significant decline in local employment. These findings suggest that in settings with some degrees of wage rigidity, place-based payroll tax incentives can be effective in stimulating local employment.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Hyejin Ku","Uta Schönberg","Ragnhild C. Schreiner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104105","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4963d43a4ccaeb80","title":"Board diversity and firm performance: evidence from the U.K. SMEs","abstract":"This study examines the relationship between board diversity and firm performance in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the U.K. In particular, we investigate the role of gender and age as two dimensions of diversity. Using a large sample of SMEs (34,798 firms) located in the U.K. and focusing on the period from 2005 to 2013, our results show a significant negative association between each of gender diversity and age diversity, and firm performance. Our evidence yields important insights on the association between board diversity and firm performance, and calls suggestions for increased board diversity into question. A possible explanation for our findings could be due to the fact that our sampled firms are SMEs, whereas those in previous studies have been large enterprises. This research provides insights to entrepreneurs on how to enhance their performance, and to governments and policymakers on the development of rules that would achieve better performance in the SME sector.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Nermeen F. Shehata","Ahmed Salhin","Moataz El-Helaly"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1293796","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4969e24d3f6b2f0a","title":"How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel","abstract":"We document the transmission of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to the real economy using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data and an identification strategy based on mortgage market segmentation. We find that central bank QE1 MBS purchases substantially increased refinancing activity, reduced interest payments for refinancing households, led to a boom in equity extraction, and increased aggregate consumption. Relative to QE-ineligible jumbo mortgages, QE-eligible conforming mortgage interest rates fell by an additional 40 bp and refinancing volumes increased by an additional 56% during QE1. We estimate that households refinancing during QE1 increased their durable consumption by 12%. Our results highlight that the transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the real economy depends crucially on the composition of assets purchased and the degree of segmentation in the market.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Marco Di Maggio","Amir Kermani","Christopher Palmer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz060","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-496bbd604562d10b","title":"Windfall gains and house money: The effects of endowment history and prior outcomes on risky decision–making","abstract":"In a seminal contribution, Thaler and Johnson (1990) detected the existence of a house money effect which is defined as an increase in risk tolerance after previous gains resulting from a risky activity. Subsequent studies used the term house money effect also in case of windfall gains, i.e., easily acquired money like show-up fees or initial endowments in experiments which does not result from a risky investment. The present study is to the best of our knowledge the first that disentangles the house money effect and windfall gains. We find a clear and systematic pattern that windfall gains increase risk tolerance. In contrast, the house money effect is far less ubiquitous and seems to require skewed lotteries and/or a large number of rounds played. We, therefore, conclude that a careful distinction between windfall gains and the house money effect is warranted in future research.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Hauke Jelschen","Ulrich Schmidt"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09411-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-49740626602a57c9","title":"The question of land access and the Spanish land reform of 1932","abstract":"Spanish land reform, involving the breakup of the large southern estates, was a central issue during the first decades of the twentieth century, and was justified on economic and political grounds. This article employs new provincial data on landless workers, land prices, and agrarian wages to consider whether government intervention was needed because of the failure of the free action of markets to redistribute land. Our evidence shows that the relative number of landless workers decreased significantly from 1860 to 1930, before the approval of the 1932 Land reform during the Second Republic (1931–6). This was due to two interrelated market forces: the falling ratio between land prices and rural wages, which made plots of land cheaper for landless workers to rent and buy; and structural change that drained the rural population from the countryside Given that shifts in factor prices were already helping workers gain access to land by the 1930s, the economic arguments for introducing reform at that time remain unclear.","wordCount":163,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Juan Carmona","Joan R. Rosés","James Simpson"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12654","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-498cee107d7c995e","title":"Estate division: equal sharing, exchange motives, and Cinderella effects","abstract":"This study contributes to the empirical literature testing bequest motives by using a population-wide administrative dataset, covering data on inherited amounts for complete families matched with an extensive set of economic and demographic variables, to estimate the influence of child characteristics on differences in inherited amounts among siblings. Our main findings are, first, children who are more likely to have provided services to the parent receive more than their siblings, as predicted by the exchange model. Second, daughters with children receive more than sons with children. This is consistent with the prediction of the evolutionary model that larger investments should go to offspring who are certain to be genetically related. There are also Cinderella effects—that is, adopted stepchildren receive less than siblings who are biological or children who are adopted by both parents. Third, we do not find support for the prediction of the altruism model that bequests are compensatory.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Oscar Erixson","Henry Ohlsson"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0727-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-49a3ec547564ef64","title":"REDD+ measurement, reporting and verification – A cost trap? Implications for financing REDD+MRV costs by result-based payments","abstract":"The REDD+ initiative applies a market-based approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The difference between the carbon stock of forests under historical deforestation and forest degradation rates and the actual C-stock achieved by forest conservation measures will be compensated financially. The difference in C-stocks is provided by a system of measurement, reporting and verification (MRV). We investigated trade-offs between costs and revenue of a REDD+ MRV system by applying a simulation study focusing on varying forest degradation intensities in natural forests. We showed the decisive influence of cost on the efficiency of REDD+. Resulting payments could be too low or even negative, especially in high forest low deforestation countries. Under current carbon process countries implementing REDD + activities need additional financial support for the development and implementation of MRV systems. We recommend that the optimization of the MRV design must meet accuracy and cost requirements. The optimization criterion for MRV systems should not be the highest possible accuracy, but the highest possible carbon credits. This contradicts the requirements for the greatest possible accuracy, as stipulated in the International Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) and Forest Carbon Partnership Facility’s (FCPF) recommendations for action.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Michael Köhl","Prem Raj Neupane","Philip Mundhenk"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106513","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-49aa781c0f1aca27","title":"The Effects of Algorithmic Labor Market Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"Algorithmically recommending workers to employers for the purpose of recruiting can substantially increase hiring: in an experiment conducted in an online labor market, employers with technical job vacancies that received recruiting recommendations had a 20% higher fill rate compared to the control. There is no evidence that the treatment crowded out hiring of nonrecommended candidates. The experimentally induced recruits were highly positively selected and were statistically indistinguishable from the kinds of workers employers recruit “on their own.” Recommendations were most effective for job openings that were likely to receive a smaller applicant pool.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["John J. Horton"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689213","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-49b0698350defdcf","title":"Measuring Inequality by Asset Indices: A General Approach with Application to South Africa","abstract":"Asset indices are widely used, particularly in the analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys, where they have been routinely constructed as “wealth indices.” Such indices have been externally validated in a number of contexts. Nevertheless, we show that they often fail an internal validity test, that is, ranking individuals with “rural” assets below individuals with no assets at all. We consider from first principles what sort of indexes might make sense, given the predominantly dummy variable nature of asset schedules. We show that there is, in fact, a way to construct an asset index which does not violate some basic principles and which also has the virtue that it can be used to construct “asset inequality” measures. However, there is a need to pay careful attention to the components of the index. We show this with South African data.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Martin Wittenberg","Murray Leibbrandt"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12286","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-49cdffc6f8472130","title":"Growth at risk from climate change","abstract":"How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Michael T. Kiley"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13206","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-49d6e3043be5f5a1","title":"The effects of banking market structure on corporate cash holdings and the value of cash","abstract":"We investigate the impact of the local banking market structure on the level of corporate cash holdings and the value of cash. We find that, in more concentrated banking markets, firms increase their cash holdings by issuing more equity. The marginal value of $1 cash increases by 10 cents with a one-standard-deviation increase in bank concentration. The positive relationship between bank concentration and value of cash is robust to a rich set of tests such as for firms having access to bond markets or firms using syndicated loans and is more prominent for more financially constrained firms. We also explore the mechanism, and our results suggest that in more concentrated banking markets firms demand more cash to shield against default risk.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Shengfeng Li","Liang Han","Biao Mi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101460","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-49e098448b74fe65","title":"Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View","abstract":"We provide new time-varying estimates of the housing wealth effect back to the 1980s. We use three identification strategies: ordinary least squares with a rich set of controls, the Saiz housing supply elasticity instrument, and a new instrument that exploits systematic differences in city-level exposure to regional house price cycles. All three identification strategies indicate that housing wealth elasticities were if anything slightly smaller in the 2000s than in earlier time periods. This implies that the important role housing played in the boom and bust of the 2000s was due to larger price movements rather than an increase in the sensitivity of consumption to house prices. Full-sample estimates based on our new instrument are smaller than recent estimates, though they remain economically important. We find no significant evidence of a boom–bust asymmetry in the housing wealth elasticity. We show that these empirical results are consistent with the behaviour of the housing wealth elasticity in a standard life-cycle model with borrowing constraints, uninsurable income risk, illiquid housing, and long-term mortgages. In our model, the housing wealth elasticity is relatively insensitive to changes in the distribution of loan-to-value (LTV) for two reasons: first, low-leverage homeowners account for a substantial and stable part of the aggregate housing wealth elasticity; second, a rightward shift in the LTV distribution increases not only the number of highly sensitive constrained agents but also the number of underwater agents whose consumption is insensitive to house prices.","wordCount":238,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Adam Guren","Alisdair McKay","Emi Nakamura","Jón Steinsson"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-49e7bd594a70bb1b","title":"International Currencies and Capital Allocation","abstract":"We establish currency as an important factor shaping global portfolios. Using a new security-level data set, we demonstrate that investor holdings are biased toward their own currencies to such an extent that countries typically hold most of the foreign-debt securities denominated in their currency. While large firms issue in foreign currency and borrow from foreigners, most firms issue only in local currency and do not directly access foreign capital. These patterns hold broadly across countries except for the United States, as foreign investors hold significant shares of US dollar bonds. The share of dollar-denominated cross-border holdings surged after 2008.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Matteo Maggiori","Brent Neiman","Jesse Schreger"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705688","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-49fa6c99c88204a7","title":"A Schumpeterian Model of Top Income Inequality","abstract":"Top income inequality rose sharply in the United States over the last 40 years but increased only slightly in France and Japan. Why? We explore a model in which heterogeneous entrepreneurs, broadly interpreted, exert effort to generate exponential growth in their incomes, which tends to raise inequality. Creative destruction by outside innovators restrains this expansion and induces top incomes to obey a Pareto distribution. Economic forces that affect these two mechanisms—including information technology, taxes, and policies related to innovation blocking—may explain the varied patterns of top income inequality that we see in the data.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Charles I. Jones","Jihee Kim"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699190","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4a027938a61df1bf","title":"Does It Get Better? Recent Estimates of Sexual Orientation and Earnings in the United States","abstract":"Using 2013–2015 National Health Interview Survey data, we reproduce a well‐documented finding that self‐identified lesbians earn significantly more than comparable heterosexual women. These data also show — for the first time in the literature — that self‐identified gay men also earn significantly more than comparable heterosexual men, a difference on the order of 10% of annual earnings. We discuss several possible explanations for the new finding of a gay male earnings premium and suggest that reduced discrimination and changing patterns of household specialization are unlikely to be the primary mechanisms.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Christopher S. Carpenter","Samuel T. Eppink"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12233","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4a2f8b2643f1e98d","title":"The Good, the Bad and the Different: Can Gender Quotas Raise the Quality of Politicians?","abstract":"The debate over political gender quotas is unduly confined to a supposed trade‐off between diversity and competence. We characterize the effects of a political gender quota in a citizen‐candidate model, to find that quotas do increase the overall quality of those elected whenever the rewards from public office are high, or the skill premium or political gender discrimination are sufficiently low. In such cases, high‐skill women candidates run for office in sufficiently high numbers, driving off low‐skill male and female candidates. Our model compares quotas with other policies in terms of their impact on the number and quality of those elected.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Paulo Júlio","José Tavares"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12222","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4a362965650ac182","title":"Environmental policy stringency and ecological footprint linkage: Mitigation measures of renewable energy and innovation","abstract":"We scrutinize the environmental policies' efficacy in reducing ecological footprint by interweaving two other vibrant parameters of environmental degradation mitigation, i.e., renewable energy sources and innovation. To this end, we apply a Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lags (CS-ARDL) approach to analyze panel time-series data (1990–2018) in the context of OECD countries. Our analysis shows that environmental policy significantly reduces ecological footprint through renewable energy and innovation channels. Our findings also support the idea that environmental policy's effectiveness is conditional on countries' bio-capacity surplus/deficit and the level of industrialization. The overall findings hold up well in the presence of cross-sectional dependence, short-run heterogeneity, and long-run homogeneity under the respective sample. Our findings underscore the need for more stringent environmental policies, supported by technological advancements and clean energy initiatives, to mitigate the impact of human economic activities on natural resources.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Kazi Sohag","Shaiara Husain","Uğur Soytaş"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107721","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4a491fdbd74c76a5","title":"Waiting to Choose: The Role of Deliberation in Intertemporal Choice","abstract":"We study the impact of deliberation on intertemporal choices. Using multiple experiments, including a field study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we show that the introduction of waiting periods—a policy that temporally separates information about choices from choices themselves—causes substantially less myopic decisions. These results cannot be captured by models of exponential discounting nor present bias. Comparing the effects of waiting periods to making planned choices over future time periods, the former has a larger impact on reducing myopia. Our results highlight the role of deliberation in decision-making and have implications for policy and intervention design.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Alex Imas","Michael Kuhn","Vera Mironova"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180233","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4a55c26c4ad97201","title":"On the Experimental Robustness of the Allais Paradox","abstract":"The Allais Paradox, or the common consequence effect, is a well-known behavioral regularity in individual decision-making under risk. Data from 81 experiments reported in 29 studies reveal that the Allais Paradox is a fragile empirical finding. The Allais Paradox is likely to be observed in experiments with high hypothetical payoffs, the medium outcome being close to the highest outcome and when lotteries are presented as a probability distribution (not in a compound form). The Allais Paradox is likely to be reversed in experiments when the probability mass is equally split between the lowest and highest outcomes in risky lotteries.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Pavlo R. Blavatskyy","Andreas Ortmann","Valentyn Panchenko"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190153","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4a5e5cbb094a5065","title":"Exposure to More Female Peers Widens the Gender Gap in STEM Participation","abstract":"We investigate how high school gender composition affects students’ participation in STEM at college. Using Danish administrative data, we exploit idiosyncratic within-school variation in gender composition. We find that having a larger proportion of female peers reduces women’s probability of enrolling in and graduating from STEM programs. Men’s STEM participation increases with more female peers present. In the long run, women exposed to more female peers are less likely to work in STEM occupations, earn less, and have more children. Our findings show that the school peer environment has lasting effects on occupational sorting, the gender wage gap, and fertility.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Anne Brenøe","Ulf Zölitz"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706646","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4a68410e156db58a","title":"Do markets Trump politics? Fossil and renewable market reactions to major political events","abstract":"We investigate the effects of three events with major importance for climate policy on energy sector stocks: the Paris Agreement, the Trump election and presidency, and the Biden election. By combining event studies with impulse‐indicator saturation methods, we show that the Paris Agreement and the election of Mr. Biden benefited renewable industries, while the election of Mr. Trump had negative effects. For fossil fuel industries, the effects were largely the opposite. Despite Trump's efforts to eliminate environmental regulations, his presidency did however witness a decrease in both US coal production and consumption, while natural gas and oil consumption increased.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Samson Mukanjari","Thomas Sterner"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13195","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4a6d1796d00c5f11","title":"Conditional persistence? Historical disease exposure and government response to COVID-19","abstract":"Drawing on the literature on cultural adaptations to historical disease exposure, we investigate differences in government containment policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize that a higher historical exposure to disease resulted in a stronger government response to recent COVID deaths, particularly during the first year of the pandemic characterized by fundamental uncertainty. Our empirical analysis confirms this hypothesis, both for differences in government responses to disease dynamics between countries and for differences in state-level containment policies within the United States. Our results suggest that the impact of historical health legacies on contemporary policy may be conditional on the character of the public health risk at hand. Deep cultural norms, determined by historical experiences, may play a minor role most of the time but are activated in times of fundamental uncertainty.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Annika Lindskog","Ola Olsson"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.01.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4a6fcdc5645fd051","title":"Nutrition, information and household behavior: Experimental evidence from Malawi","abstract":"Incorrect knowledge of the health production function may lead to inefficient household choices and thereby to the production of suboptimal levels of health. This paper studies the effects of a randomized intervention in rural Malawi that, over a six-month period, provided mothers of young infants with information on child nutrition without supplying any monetary or in-kind resources. A simple model first investigates theoretically how nutrition and other household choices including labor supply may change in response to the improved nutrition knowledge observed in the intervention areas. We then show empirically that the intervention improved child nutrition, household food consumption and consequently health. We find evidence that labor supply increased, which might have contributed to partially fund the increase in food consumption. This paper is the first to study whether non-health choices, particularly parental labor supply, might be affected by parents' knowledge of the child health production function.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Emla Fitzsimons","Bansi Malde","Alice Mesnard","Marcos Vera‐Hernández"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.05.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4a8e7e84bcd718aa","title":"Land scarcity, sustainable uses and environmental policies","abstract":"We present a dynamic model of land use in a small economy, where land is a fixed resource that can either be used for food consumption, resulting in pollution, or invested in natural capital. Land scarcity imposes a quantity constraint that creates a trade-off between these alternative uses. This constraint shapes the dynamics of the system, influencing its differential equations and leading to a differential–algebraic system of equations (DAE). This approach represents a novelty compared to environmental dynamic models that rely solely on differential equations. Using this analytical framework, we show that shadow prices and stocks are closely interconnected and must be determined simultaneously. We use the DAE system to explore the impact of supranational policies aimed at achieving broader environmental goals on land allocation in the small economy. We derive two main results. First, the relative effectiveness of policy instruments is determined by the pollution intensity of consumption : when pollution intensity is low, incentives that promote land investment in natural capital are more efficient; conversely, when pollution intensity is high, regulatory measures that limit land use for consumption become more effective. Second, although temporary policies do not affect the long-run steady state of the system, they significantly accelerate the transition toward a more sustainable land allocation in the medium term.","wordCount":212,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Alessandro Bellocchi","Enrico Saltari","Giuseppe Travaglini"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101532","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4a9e3a3aaed772b4","title":"How much does it take? Willingness to switch to meat substitutes","abstract":"Meat production and consumption have several negative environmental externalities and health impacts. Using a stated preference survey, this study identifies main barriers to and drivers of switching to the following meat substitutes: a plant-based veggie burger, a meat-like burger, and a lab burger. About a third of those who prefer meat would consider switching to a meat substitute if the price were two-thirds or less of the price of the meat option. However, almost half of the respondents would not choose a lab meat burger even if they would get it for free. Male individuals without university education and older than 30 years show a stronger resistance to substitute meat hamburgers, in particular if the substitute is a plant-based veggie burger that neither looks nor tastes like meat. Environmental and health consciousness and being familiar with the substitute are correlated with the willingness to substitute. Older individuals are less familiar with and less likely to choose meat substitutes compared with younger individuals. We also find that taste is a prominent barrier for people who prefer meat, indicating that there is room for improvements in the taste of the different meat substitutes.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Fredrik Carlsson","Mitesh Kataria","Elina Lampi"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107329","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4a9ed30ae00b94f4","title":"The Impact of Consulting Services on Small and Medium Enterprises: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Mexico","abstract":"A randomized control trial with 432 small and medium enterprises in Mexico shows positive impact of access to 1 year of management consulting services on total factor productivity and return on assets. Owners also had an increase in “entrepreneurial spirit” (an index that measures entrepreneurial confidence and goal setting). Using Mexican social security data, we find a persistent large increase (about 50 percent) in the number of employees and total wage bill even 5 years after the program. We document large heterogeneity in the specific managerial practices that improved as a result of the consulting, with the most prominent being marketing, financial accounting, and long-term business planning.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Miriam Bruhn","Dean Karlan","Antoinette Schoar"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696154","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4abd7d27923cb161","title":"Contract farming and rural transformation: Evidence from a field experiment in Benin","abstract":"Contract farming has emerged as a popular mechanism to encourage vertical coordination in developing country agriculture. Yet, there is a lack of consensus on its ability to spur structural transformation in rural economies. We present results from a field experiment on contract farming for rice production in Benin. While all contracts have positive effects on welfare and productivity measures, we find that the simplest contract has impacts nearly as large as contracts with additional attributes. This suggests that once price risk is resolved through the offer of a fixed-price contract, farmers are able to address other constraints on their own.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Aminou Arouna","Jeffrey D. Michler","Jourdain Lokossou"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102626","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4acf055da337aab5","title":"Household heterogeneity and the transmission of foreign shocks","abstract":"We study the role of heterogeneity in the transmission of foreign shocks. We build a Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian Small Open Model Economy (HANKSOME) that experiences a current account reversal. Households' portfolio composition and the extent of foreign currency borrowing are key determinants of the magnitude of the contraction in consumption associated with a sudden stop in capital inflows. The contraction is more severe when households are leveraged and owe debt in foreign currency. In this setting, the revaluation of foreign debt causes a larger contraction in aggregate consumption when debt and leverage are concentrated among poorer households. Closing the output gap via an exchange-rate devaluation may therefore be detrimental to household welfare due to the heterogeneous impact of the foreign debt revaluation. Our HANKSOME framework can rationalize the observed “fear of floating” in emerging market economies, even in the absence of contractionary devaluations.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Sergio de Ferra","Kurt Mitman","Federica Romei"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103303","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4ad10efa67802259","title":"Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures","abstract":"Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expenditures decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Leon Clarke","Jiyong Eom","Elke Hodson Marten","Russell Horowitz","Page Kyle","Robert Link","Bryan K. Mignone","Anupriya Mundra","Yuyu Zhou"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ad9601cd0265a61","title":"Debt policy in Spanish America during the seventeenth century","abstract":"This paper analyzes the policies that the Castile of the seventeenth century followed toward creating and selling short-term and long-term debt paid off from the Crown's New World revenues. We use microdata to reconstruct comprehensive fiscal accounts for Spanish America during the seventeenth century. Our new time series evidence shows that the Spanish Empire maintained differential debt policies in the center and the periphery. Spanish America issued considerably less debt, more credible than coetaneous Castilian debt. However, the issuances’ size did not reflect lower debt capacity in the New World, as the Spanish Empire restrained long-term debt issuance to emergencies. We also provide complementary evidence from debt issuances and explain why differential debt policies were maintained.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Sergio Tonatiuh Serrano Hernández"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101548","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ada4df07452aed6","title":"The Changing Landscape of Auditors’ Liability","abstract":"We provide a comprehensive overview of shareholder litigation against auditors since the passage of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. The number of lawsuits per year has declined, dismissals have increased, and settlements in recent years have declined. Our study asks why. Tests indicate that the decline cannot be attributed solely to increases in audit quality, leading us to consider whether Supreme Court cases limiting the scope of Rule 10b-5 against private actors may have led to the decline. To study this possibility, we focus on the Supreme Court’s 2007 and 2011 rulings in Tellabs v. Makor and Janus v. First Derivative, respectively. Our analysis provides strong evidence that the higher liability standards imposed by Janus significantly reduced auditors’ liability exposure, but we find only limited evidence that the pleading standards imposed by Tellabs had a significant effect.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Colleen Honigsberg","Shivaram Rajgopal","Suraj Srinivasan"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707238","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4ae288c5afb8b220","title":"Optimal endogenous growth with natural resources: Theory and evidence","abstract":"This paper considers an optimal endogenous growth model where the production function is assumed to exhibit increasing returns to scale and two types of resource (renewable and nonrenewable) are imperfect substitutes. Natural resources, labor, and physical capital are used in the final goods sector and in the accumulation of knowledge. Based on results in the calculus of variations, a direct proof of the existence of an optimal solution is provided. Analytical solutions for the planner case, balanced growth paths, and steady states are found for a specific CRRA utility and Cobb–Douglas production function. It is possible to have long-run growth where both energy resources are used simultaneously along the equilibrium path. As the law of motion of the technological change is not concave, reflecting the increasing returns to scale, so that the Arrow–Mangasarian sufficiency conditions do not apply, we provide a sufficient condition directly. Transitional dynamics to the steady state from the theoretical model are used to derive three convergence equations of output intensity growth rate, exhaustible resource growth rate, and renewable resource growth rate, which are tested based on OECD data on production and energy consumption.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Manh‐Hung Nguyen","Phu Nguyen‐Van"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000061","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4ae44bcfd5e3a254","title":"Polarized corporate boards","abstract":"We show that political polarization among directors negatively affects corporate board effectiveness by reducing forced CEO turnover-performance sensitivity. Our results are more pronounced in presidential election years and for firms with more monitoring and advising needs. Polarization also increases the departure likelihood for directors who are ideologically distant from the rest of the board, making boards more politically homogeneous over time. Finally, we show that polarization in the boardroom lowers firms' investment- Q sensitivity and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance. Our findings highlight the real economic cost of political polarization.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Thao Hoang","Phong T. H. Ngo","Le Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102697","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ae8cd18cb8bb180","title":"Ship Crowding and Slave Mortality: Missing Observations or Incorrect Measurement?","abstract":"Inconsistent measurement of ship tonnage, the denominator in the usual measures of crowded conditions on slave vessels, may confound estimated associations between crowding and slave mortality on the Middle Passage. The tonnages reported in Lloyd's Registers are shown to be consistent over time and are used to demonstrate that both the unstandardized and standardized tonnages in the Transatlantic Slave Trade Database are deeply flawed. Using corrected tonnages, we find that crowding increased mortality only on British slave ships and only before the passage of Dolben's Act in 1788.","wordCount":88,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Peter M. Solar","Nicolas Duquette"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717001073","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4aed9cf629c574a2","title":"The intergenerational effects of birth order on education","abstract":"We study the intergenerational effect of birth order on educational attainment using rich data from different European countries included in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The survey allows us to link two or more generations in different countries. We use reduced-form models linking children’s education to parents’ education, controlling for a large number of characteristics measured at different points in time. We find that not only are parents who are themselves firstborns better educated, on average, but they also have more-educated children compared with laterborn parents (intergenerational effect). Results are stronger for mothers than for fathers, and for daughters than for sons. In terms of heterogeneous effects, we find that girls born to firstborn mothers have higher educational attainment than girls born to laterborn mothers. We do not find evidence for potential channels other than parental education that could explain the intergenerational effect of parental birth order.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Enkelejda Havari","Marco Savegnago"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00810-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4afa799d03ec9ab0","title":"Uncertainty and crude oil market volatility: new evidence","abstract":"The main goal of this paper is to investigate the predictability of five economic uncertainty indices for oil price volatility in a changing world. We employ the standard predictive regression framework, several model combination approaches, as well as two prevailing model shrinkage methods to evaluate the performances of the uncertainty indices. The empirical results based on simple autoregression models including only one index suggest that global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and US equity market volatility (EMV) indices have significant predictive power for crude oil market volatility. In addition, the model combination approaches adopted in this paper can improve slightly the performances of individual autoregressive models. Lastly, the two model shrinkage methods, namely Elastin net and Lasso, outperform other individual AR-type model and combination models in most forecasting cases. Other empirical results based on alternative forecasting methods, estimation window sizes, high/low volatility and economic expansion/recession time periods further make sure the robustness of our major conclusions. The findings in this paper also have several important economic implications for oil investors.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Chao Liang","Yu Wei","Xiafei Li","Xuhui Zhang","Yifeng Zhang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1696943","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4afdf11e0444a6fc","title":"Intergenerational Occupational Mobility across Three Continents","abstract":"I compare rates of intergenerational occupational mobility across four countries in the late nineteenth century: 1869–1895 Argentina, 1850–1880 United States, 1851–1881 Britain, and 1865–1900 Norway. Argentina and the United States had similar levels of intergenerational mobility, and these levels were above those of Britain and Norway. These findings suggest that the higher mobility of nineteenth-century United States relative to Britain might not have been a reflection of “American exceptionalism,” but rather a manifestation of more widespread differences between settler economies of the New World and Europe.","wordCount":86,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Santiago Pérez"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Z","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4b0b63a77d128374","title":"Direct and indirect effects of self-control and future time perspective on financial well-being","abstract":"Financial well-being is getting more attention in research and consumer policy, but there is limited understanding of its determinants. In this study, the effects of two psychological factors (self-control and future time perspective) are studied on two components of financial well-being (current money management stress and expected future financial security). Using structural equation modelling in data from 16 countries (n = 15,773), we find that self-control and future time perspective have both direct and indirect effects on the components of financial well-being. The indirect effects are mediated by past and present financial behaviour and have smaller effect sizes than the direct effects. Self-control is the main determinant of current money management stress, while future time perspective is the main determinant of expected future financial security. Our results emphasize that financial well-being should not be treated as a one-dimensional construct. Instead, the interventions for improving financial well-being should clearly target either its present or future component and consider psychological characteristics in their design.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["W. Fred van Raaij","Leonore Riitsalu","Kaire Põder"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102667","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4b195c226826f828","title":"Bank regulation and market structure","abstract":"In our model, banks, heterogeneous in terms of entry costs, compete à la Salop for depositors on the unit circle. When capital requirements, intended to prevent risk shifting, are increased, the resulting costs are passed on to depositors in the form of reduced deposit rates or quality of service. This may induce depositors to migrate to unregulated shadow banks, the consequence being a change in the market structure for regulated banks: for low levels of capital requirements we observe monopolistic competition, while for higher levels constrained oligopoly and, finally, local monopoly. Under the latter two types of market structure, higher capital requirements reduce the profit margins and franchise values of banks, which may have the unintended effect of inducing banks to increase the riskiness of their investments.","wordCount":127,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Carsten Krabbe Nielsen","Gerd Weinrich"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102944","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4b207c28d3437fb4","title":"Does FDI affect energy consumption in the belt and road initiative economies? The role of green technologies","abstract":"This paper examines how foreign direct investments (FDI) affect energy consumption in the panel data of 29 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies from 2000 to 2021. The paper runs several panel data techniques, which concurrently accommodate the dataset's cross-sectional dependency, slope heterogeneity, and structural break concerns in the cointegration. The results show that global FDI positively affects energy consumption. China's FDI dominance also has a favorable effect on energy consumption. In addition, green technologies increase energy consumption. These results emphasise the significance of FDI policies and green technologies regarding promoting energy demand in the BRI economies.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Riazullah Shinwari","Yangjie Wang","Giray Gözgör","Mahdi Mousavi"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107409","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4b230e78e02cd200","title":"Daniel Kahneman’s underappreciated last published paper: Empirical implications for benefit-cost analysis and a chat session discussion with bots","abstract":"Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman’s last published paper is an adversarial collaboration in which he and Matthew Killingsworth reconcile conflicting empirical results from their previous research on income and reported happiness, with Barbara Mellers as a facilitator. The empirical results use quantile regression to allow for measured income heterogeneity effects that include notch points in the estimated marginal utilities of income. Our analysis examines Kahneman’s last paper’s conceptual innovations and challenges to assumptions about diminishing marginal utility of income. We review his contributions to emotional well-being measurement and employ a novel AI-simulated dialogue between the late Amos Tversky and Sir Angus Deaton to explore interdisciplinary perspectives on the findings. Our paper demonstrates how Kahneman’s final research undermines recent arguments for incorporating income redistribution simply into benefit-cost analysis, suggesting that such objectives remain better addressed through fiscal policy rather than regulatory interventions. His final published work exemplifies Kahneman’s commitment to empirical precision and theoretical flexibility, even when contradicting his earlier conclusions.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["C. Mónica Capra","Thomas J. Kniesner"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-025-09459-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4b299cf264ad7b93","title":"Gender differences in financial literacy: The role of stereotype threat","abstract":"Understanding why women display less financial literacy than men is crucial for developing policies to reduce gender inequalities and improve womens financial behavior. In a series of studies, we investigate whether the observed gender gap in financial literacy can be identified in nonnumerical contexts, if it can be related to confidence in financial matters, and if it can be attributed to stereotype threat, which posits that inbuilt prejudices about gender and finance undermine performance among women in tasks involving finance. We utilized data from the Swedish Standardized Scholastic Aptitude Test ( n = 40,662) to investigate if there is a greater difference in reading comprehension between men and women when reading about topics related to finance. Furthermore, we conducted large-scale online data collection ( n = 1989), including a survey on financial vocabulary and an experiment that manipulated the salience of the financial content across conditions when assessing financial literacy. The results show that the observed gender gap in financial literacy is robust also in a nonnumerical financial contexts and that it can not be attributed to a difference in (displayed) confidence. Finally, mediation analysis showed a significant indirect effect of gender on financial literacy through financial anxiety suggesting that a stereotype threat for women in the financial domain contributes to the observed gender gap.","wordCount":215,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Gustav Tinghög","Ali Ahmed","Kinga Barrafrem","Thérèse Lind","Kenny Skagerlund","Daniel Västfjäll"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.10.015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4b2c8c40d0a9a2af","title":"Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change","abstract":"Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with a dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks and accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk to global crop yields from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains we observe only slight moderation of short-run impacts by farmers' long-run adjustments. In the absence of additional margins of adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that the climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end, under a vigorous warming scenario.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Ian Sue Wing","Enrica De Cian","Malcolm Mistry"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102462","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4b3ed592787a37df","title":"Gender diversity and firm performance: evidence from India and Singapore","abstract":"This study investigates if gender diversity on boards is an effective driver of financial performance. For this purpose, this study choses two countries, one of which has the soft law approach (Singapore) while the other has mandatory requirements (India) on corporate boards gender diversity. By doing so, it examines if there is a comparability between the listed firms of the two countries. Our results suggest that the gender diversity has a positive and significant effect on the financial performance of the firms of both the countries. Although, the gender diversity of the two countries does not seem to affect the growth opportunities of both the countries. Further, our results indicate that the board characteristics affect the performance positively and significantly when the sample is divided into five quantiles for the firms in these two countries. These findings have implications to the managerial decision making and relevance to stewardship theory and resource dependency theory.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Geeta Duppati","Narendar V. Rao","Neha Matlani","Frank Scrimgeour","Debasis Patnaik"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1676872","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4b4c576fa34c0b89","title":"Beyond Early Warning Indicators: High School Dropout and Machine Learning","abstract":"This paper combines machine learning with economic theory in order to analyse high school dropout. It provides an algorithm to predict which students are going to drop out of high school by relying only on information from 9th grade. This analysis emphasizes that using a parsimonious early warning system – as implemented in many schools – leads to poor results. It shows that schools can obtain more precise predictions by exploiting the available high‐dimensional data jointly with machine learning tools such as Support Vector Machine, Boosted Regression and Post‐LASSO. Goodness‐of‐fit criteria are selected based on the context and the underlying theoretical framework: model parameters are calibrated by taking into account the policy goal – minimizing the expected dropout rate ‐ and the school budget constraint. Finally, this study verifies the existence of heterogeneity through unsupervised machine learning by dividing students at risk of dropping out into different clusters.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Dario Sansone"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12277","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4b52631cb47ed1c9","title":"Viewpoint: Agri-nutrition research: Revisiting the contribution of maize and wheat to human nutrition and health","abstract":"Research linking agriculture and nutrition has evolved since the mid-20th century. The current focus is on child-stunting, dietary diversity and 'nutrient-rich' foods in recognition of the growing burdens of malnutrition and non-communicable diseases. This article concerns the global dietary and health contribution of major cereals, specifically maize and wheat, which are often considered not to be 'nutrient-rich' foods. Nevertheless, these cereals are major sources of dietary energy, of essential proteins and micronutrients, and diverse non-nutrient bioactive food components. Research on bioactives, and dietary fibre in particular, is somewhat 'siloed', with little attention paid by the agri-nutrition research community to the role of cereal bioactives in healthy diets, and the adverse health effects often arising through processing and manufacturing of cereals-based food products. We argue that the research agenda should embrace the whole nutritional contribution of the multiple dietary components of cereals towards addressing the triple burden of undernutrition, micronutrient malnutrition, overweight/obesity and non-communicable diseases. Agri-nutrition and development communities need to adopt a multidisciplinary and food systems research approach from farm to metabolism. Agriculture researchers should collaborate with other food systems stakeholders on nutrition-related challenges in cereal production, processing and manufacturing, and food waste and losses. Cereal and food scientists should also collaborate with social scientists to better understand the impacts on diets of the political economy of the food industry, and the diverse factors which influence local and global dietary transitions, consumer behavioural choices, dietary change, and the assessment and acceptance of novel and nutritious cereal-based products.","wordCount":247,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Nigel Poole","Jason Donovan","Olaf Erenstein"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101976","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4b6f8a4accf4dc98","title":"Climate change and the mortality of the unborn","abstract":"Although previous studies have examined the association between temperature exposure and pregnancy losses (mainly focusing on the risk of stillbirth), causal estimates are still missing. The literature also lacks projections on the impacts of climate change. Using Hungarian administrative data spanning 1984 to 2018, this paper estimates the effect of temperature on the weekly spontaneous pregnancy loss rate. We show that, compared to a mild temperature, heat causes a substantial increase in the risk of pregnancy loss, whereas cold temperatures slightly decrease it. These impacts are not due to near-term displacement of some pregnancy losses but represent changes in the pregnancy outcomes. Combining the estimated effects with outputs of thirty climate models implies that climate change will increase the spontaneous pregnancy loss rate in the 21st century. The risk of pregnancy loss will be especially elevated during summer.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Tamás Hajdu","Gábor Hajdu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102771","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4b78e0bfb3238535","title":"The relationship between the Covid-19 media coverage and the Environmental, Social and Governance leaders equity volatility: a time-frequency wavelet analysis","abstract":"We apply wavelet analyses to study how the social media coverage of the Covid-19 pandemic influenced the volatility of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) leaders indices encompassing World, USA, Europe, China, and Emerging Markets. We document intervals of low, medium, and high coherence between the Media Coverage Index and the price moves of the ESG Leaders indices. The low coherence intervals indicate the diversification potential of ESG investments during a systemic pandemic such as Covid-19. We document differences in the pattern exhibited by various geographical indices evidencing their potential role for designing cross-geography hedge strategies.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Zaghum Umar","Mariya Gubareva"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1877252","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4b7ad0e54554aed2","title":"Tax Me, but Spend Wisely? Sources of Public Finance and Government Accountability","abstract":"Existing evidence suggests that extra [grant] lead to little improvements in public services in developing countries—but would governments spend tax revenues differently? This paper considers a program that invests in the tax capacity of Brazilian municipalities. Using variations in the timing of program uptake, I find that it raises local tax revenues and that the increase in taxes is used to improve both the quantity and quality of municipal education infrastructure. In contrast, increases in grants over which municipalities have the same discretion as taxes have no impact on any measure of local public infrastructure. These results suggest that the way governments are financed matters: governments spend increases in tax revenues more toward expenditures that benefit citizens than increases in [grant].","wordCount":121,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Lucie Gadenne"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150509","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4b7ae551a9191774","title":"Shaped by Booms and Busts: How the Economy Impacts CEO Careers and Management Styles","abstract":"We show that economic conditions when managers enter the labor market have long-run effects on their career paths and managerial styles. Managers who began their careers during recessions become CEOs more quickly, but at smaller firms. They also have more conservative styles, such as lower investment in capital expenditures and research and development, more cost cutting, and lower leverage and working capital needs. These recession effects appear to be largely driven by the characteristics of the CEO's first job (recession CEOs tend to start in smaller or private firms), which suggests that the early work environment is important to the formation and selection of managers. (","wordCount":106,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Antoinette Schoar","Luo Zuo"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw111","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4b81fd833b1b4d88","title":"Multiproduct search obfuscation","abstract":"We introduce a new price competition model of search for a single product among multiproduct firms. Search order is optimal within and across firms. Consumers have limited time and require a random time to sample a product. Different search outcomes lead to price dispersion. We describe a symmetric mixed equilibrium where multiproduct firms provide discounted prices on some products and expensive prices on others. Compared to single-product oligopolies, this strategy alleviates competition by (i) engaging consumers in searching more within (less across) firms and (ii) enabling more refined price discrimination.","wordCount":90,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Saara Hämäläinen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102863","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4b852df18c0fe77d","title":"The impact of temperature on labor quality: Umpire accuracy in Major League Baseball","abstract":"Using data from Major League Baseball, I compute an objective measure of the home plate umpire's work quality—the accuracy of his ball and strike calls during a game—and measure how it varies with temperature. I find that an increase in game‐time temperature from between 70 and 80°F to above 95°F decreases an umpire's accuracy by a little less than a percentage point, which is a 5.5% increase in the pitch‐calling error rate when evaluated at the mean error rate of 13.3%. Restricting the sample to borderline pitches increases the magnitude of the hot‐weather effect on accuracy to over a percentage point. My results indicate that very hot temperatures have a nontrivial, negative effect on the labor supply quality of a highly trained and highly skilled workforce in an important, high‐revenue, and high‐stakes industry, and suggest that protecting workers from daily variation in temperature can improve labor productivity.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Eric Fesselmeyer"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12524","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4b92bfb1e5174fa3","title":"Escaping Local Risk by Entering Indentureship: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century Indian Migration","abstract":"Of the millions of Indians who migrated internationally in the long nineteenth century, over one million went as indentured servants in a massive South-South migration. I test how price volatility in origin markets in India affected out-migration under indentureship contracts from 1873–1916 to four major destinations around the world. Using new, unique district-level flows calculated from roughly 250,000 individual records, I show that indentureship take-up is consistent with migrating to escape local price volatility.","wordCount":74,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Alexander Persaud"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002205071900007x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4b96cb8beae83c78","title":"Dual Credit Markets and Household Usage to Finance: Evidence from a Representative Chinese Household Survey","abstract":"Using a new and representative data set of Chinese household finance, we document household usage and costs of finance, along with their correlates. As in many developing countries, informal credit is a crucial element of household finance, and interest‐free informal loans based on reciprocal personal relationships are highly prevalent in our sample. Not surprisingly, wealth tends to be associated with greater usage of both formal and informal finance. Political connections, extensive social networks and certain household demographic characteristics (such as size) are all positively associated with formal or informal credit usage (or both). Overall, our findings show signs that a dual credit market is emerging in China, with the poor, politically unconnected, and those with larger family sizes still heavily reliant on informal finance, most of which are interest‐free, while younger, wealthier households with better political connections and financial knowledge are increasingly using formal finance.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Robert Cull","Li Gan","Nan Gao","Lixin Colin Xu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12320","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4ba9f40ac73403ad","title":"How explicit expected value information affects tax compliance decisions and information acquisition","abstract":"In a MouselabWEB experiment with 345 participants, we investigated whether different presentations of expected value information in tax compliance decisions increase conformity with classical deterrence models’ assumptions. Recording both choice and process data, we compare conditions of verbal explanation only, verbal explanation plus numerical cue, verbal explanation plus visual cue, and a control condition without expected value information. Only when the expected value was presented as a visual cue the option with the higher expected value (i.e., evasion) was chosen more often than the control condition (58.3% vs. 38.4%). Nevertheless, individuals were more compliant than predicted by the deterrence model. While we identified differences between the experimental conditions in information acquisition patterns and decision times, they do not suggest that one way of presenting expected value information was easier to process than the others or that the main behavioral effect can be explained by higher saliency of the visual cue. These results indicate that individuals' decisions are not predominantly driven by outcome maximization, even when explicit expected value information is provided.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Martin Müller","Jerome Olsen","Erich Kirchler","Christoph Kogler"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102679","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4bb4213a6ba3061c","title":"Risk sharing and the adoption of the Euro","abstract":"This paper empirically evaluates whether adopting a common currency has changed the level of consumption smoothing of euro area member states. We construct a counterfactual dataset of macroeconomic variables through the synthetic control method. We then use the output variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (1996) on both the actual and the synthetic data to study if there has been a change in risk sharing and through which channels. We find that the euro adoption has reduced risk sharing and consumption smoothing. We further show that this reduction is mainly driven by the periphery countries of the euro area who have experienced a decrease in risk sharing through private credit.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Alessandro Ferrari","Anna Rogantini Picco"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103727","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4bc8d0c36ac89822","title":"How the Timing of Grade Retention Affects Outcomes: Identification and Estimation of Time-Varying Treatment Effects","abstract":"In many countries, grade retention is viewed as a useful tool for helping students who fall behind in their achievement. We show how the effect of grade retention varies by abilities, by timing of retention and as time since retention elapses. While existing studies of grade retention also recognize the importance of studying variation by abilities and timing, the existing methods are not well-equipped to deal with the possibility that students retained at different grades differ in unobservable abilities (dynamic selection) and the effects of retention also vary by the student's abilities and the time at which the student is retained. We extend existing factor analytic methods for identifying treatment effects to control for dynamic selection in our time-varying treatment effect setting. This approach can be understood as a hybrid between a control function and a generalization of the fixed effects approach. Applying our method to nationally-representative, longitudinal data, we find evidence of dynamic selection into retention and that the treatment effect of retention varies considerably across grades and unobservable abilities of students. Our strategy can be applied more broadly to many time-varying or multiple treatment settings.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jane Cooley Fruehwirth","Salvador Navarro","Yuya Takahashi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686262","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4bcd136822f5b009","title":"The Market for Online Influence","abstract":"Recent developments in social media have morphed the age-old practice of paying influential individuals for product endorsements into a multibillion dollar industry, extending well beyond celebrity sponsorships. We develop a parsimonious model in which influencers trade off the increased revenue they obtain from paid endorsements with the negative impact that these have on their followers’ engagement and, therefore, on the price influencers receive from marketers. The model provides testable predictions that match suggestive evidence on pricing of paid endorsements, reveals a novel type of inefficiency that emerges in this market, and clarifies the role of search technology and advice transparency in shaping market activity. In particular, we show that recent policies that make paid endorsements more transparent can backfire, whereas an increase in the effectiveness of the search technology that matches followers to influencers has both direct and strategic positive welfare effects.","wordCount":142,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Itay P. Fainmesser","Andrea Galeotti"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4bd8d99410d5054c","title":"Effects of air pollution on labor supply: Evidence from Japan","abstract":"We empirically examine the effects of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution on labor supply based on data from Japan, a country in which the PM 2.5 level is generally low to moderate. PM 2.5 can adversely affect health and cause affected workers to reduce labor supply, whereas workers and firms can take reactive measures to mitigate labor supply losses. We aim to investigate the causal effects of PM 2.5 pollution, managing potential endogeneity of PM 2.5 pollution by using nationally representative panel data and utilizing two exogenous phenomena: thermal inversion events and transboundary pollution transport from the Asian continent. The results robustly show that increases in PM 2.5 levels decrease monthly labor hours. Even moderate levels of PM 2.5 pollution affect labor supply on a national scale. Our findings are related to current international discussions on low-to-moderate levels of air pollution.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Daichi Yamada","Daiju Narita"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103178","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-4be1f14e74b537c1","title":"Social networks, mobility, and political participation: The potential for women’s self-help groups to improve access and use of public entitlement schemes in India","abstract":"Women’s self-help groups (SHGs) have increasingly been used as a vehicle for social, political, and economic empowerment as well as a platform for service delivery. Although a growing body of literature shows evidence of positive impacts of SHGs on various measures of empowerment, our understanding of ways in which SHGs improve awareness and use of public services is limited. To fill this knowledge gap, this paper first examines how SHG membership is associated with political participation, awareness, and use of government entitlement schemes. It further examines the effect of SHG membership on various measures of social networks and mobility. Using data collected in 2015 across five Indian states and matching methods to correct for endogeneity of SHG membership, we find that SHG members are more politically engaged. We also find that SHG members are not only more likely to know of certain public entitlements than non-members, they are significantly more likely to avail of a greater number of public entitlement schemes. Additionally, SHG members have wider social networks and greater mobility as compared to non-members. Our results suggest that SHGs have the potential to increase their members’ ability to hold public entities accountable and demand what is rightfully theirs. An important insight, however, is that the SHGs themselves cannot be expected to increase knowledge of public entitlement schemes in absence of a deliberate effort to do so by an external agency.","wordCount":231,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Neha Kumar","Kalyani Raghunathan","Alejandra Arrieta","Amir Jilani","Suman Chakrabarti","Purnima Menon","Agnes Quisumbing"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.023","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4c04a8093bd1117d","title":"Patents, R&D subsidies, and endogenous market structure in a schumpeterian economy","abstract":"This study explores the different implications of patent breadth and R&D subsidies on economic growth and endogenous market structure in a Schumpeterian growth model. We find that when the number of firms is fixed in the short run, patent breadth and R&D subsidies serve to increase economic growth as in previous studies. However, when market structure adjusts endogenously in the long run, R&D subsidies increase economic growth but decrease the number of firms, whereas patent breadth expands the number of firms but reduces economic growth. Therefore, in accordance with empirical evidence, R&D subsidy is perhaps a more suitable policy instrument than patent breadth for the purpose of stimulating long-run economic growth.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Angus C. Chu","Yuichi Furukawa","Lei Ji"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12122","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4c0884a4b313f7be","title":"Subsidies versus mental accounting nudges: Harnessing mobile payment systems to improve sanitation","abstract":"The proliferation of mobile money across developing countries has led to an increase in availability of mobile payment systems. This decreases the organizational complexity of allowing more flexible payment terms for customers. We test whether subsidies, deposit requirements, and access to a mobile money savings vehicle increase the propensity of households to purchase an improved but more expensive sanitation service. While high subsidies increase purchases of the improved service, interventions inspired by mental accounting such as deposit requirements and earmarked savings accounts do not. The option to save in earmarked accounts using mobile money caused households to substitute away from purchasing the improved service in the general market and towards purchasing it through our providers, rather than substituting away from the unimproved service. We discuss implications for mental accounting-based policies compared to more traditional subsidies.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Molly Lipscomb","Laura Schechter"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.07.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4c320ff0dcf1ff1f","title":"Facts, alternative facts, and fact checking in times of post-truth politics","abstract":"How effective is fact checking in countervailing “alternative facts,” i.e., misleading statements by politicians? In a randomized online experiment during the 2017 French presidential election campaign, we subjected subgroups of 2480 French voters to alternative facts by the extreme-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, and/or corresponding facts about the European refugee crisis from official sources. We find that: (i) alter- native facts are highly persuasive; (ii) fact checking improves factual knowledge of voters (iii) but it does not affect policy conclusions or support for the candidate; (iv) exposure to facts alone does not decrease support for the candidate, even though voters update their knowledge. We argue that the main channel is that fact checking increases the salience of the immigration issue.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Óscar Barrera","Sergei Guriev","Emeric Henry","Ekaterina Zhuravskaya"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104123","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4c40f719bdc167eb","title":"Environmental policies with consumer-friendly firms and cross-ownership","abstract":"This paper analyzes what environmental policy is implemented by governments when there is cross-ownership between polluting firms that care about social concerns. We compare the equilibrium outcomes under environmental taxes, tradable emission permits and emission standards. We find that the concern of firms about corporate social responsibility (CSR), which is decided endogenously, depends on the environmental policy implemented by the government. The greatest concern is obtained under tradable emission permits and the lowest under emission standards. We also find that cross-ownership between firms affects the CSR level that they choose. Finally, social welfare is at its highest with tradable permits and at its lowest with an emission standard, implying that the government prefers, when possible, to set tradable emission permits rather than the other two policies.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Juan Carlos Bárcena‐Ruiz","Amagoia Sagasta"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105612","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4c445e586dcd12a5","title":"Do commonalities facilitate private information channels? Evidence from common gender and insider trading","abstract":"We examine insider trading profitability and common identity between insiders and top executives. We argue that common gender and the resulting social connections influence access to private information, wherby insiders benefit from greater information-sharing with top executives of the same gender. Using a large sample of US firms between 1995 and 2016, we find higher (lower) insider trading profitability for female (male) insiders in the presence of a female CEO or CFO. We also find that, in isolation, other social and professional commonalities, such as age, ethnicity, having attended the same university or having worked at the same firm also increase insider profitability, albeit to a lesser extent. Our evidence suggests that some of these commonalities enhance the common gender effect when combined with it. We examine formal interactions and find that attending meetings and serving on committees with top executives of the same gender enables private information-sharing, consistent with gender acting as an informational channel. We also document greater clustering of insiders' trades around the trades made by common gender top executives. Our findings are consistent with flows of private information from CEOs and CFOs to less informed common gender insiders.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Iain Clacher","Beatriz García Osma","Elvira Scarlat","Karin Shields"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102062","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4c562303cbbd3960","title":"Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?","abstract":"Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuations.","wordCount":75,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Sydney C. Ludvigson","Sai Ma","Serena Ng"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190171","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4c5db234fbc829f7","title":"Factors That Fit the Time Series and Cross-Section of Stock Returns","abstract":"We propose a new method for estimating latent asset pricing factors that fit the time series and cross-section of expected returns. Our estimator generalizes principal component analysis (PCA) by including a penalty on the pricing error in expected returns. Our approach finds weak factors with high Sharpe ratios that PCA cannot detect. We discover five factors with economic meaning that explain well the cross-section and time series of characteristic-sorted portfolio returns. The out-of-sample maximum Sharpe ratio of our factors is twice as large as with PCA with substantially smaller pricing errors. Our factors imply that a significant amount of characteristic information is redundant.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Martin Lettau","Markus Pelger"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4c630fe05281a75f","title":"Critically Important: The Heterogeneous Effect of Diplomatic Tensions on Trade","abstract":"With global value chains interlocking today’s economies, what is the impact of diplomatic tensions on international trade? We exploit variation in monthly data on imports, a measure of imported input use in the domestic economy, and the incidence of bilateral diplomatic tensions to show that their impact on trade is heterogeneous across countries and industries. Trade in industries that are crucial for domestic production is more sensitive to political tensions. We expose the underlying mechanism in a simple framework before testing it in reduced form.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Julian Hinz","Elsa Leromain"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09769-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4c6619948c9454d6","title":"A hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR analysis of Okun’s law in the United States","abstract":"Employing quarterly data on GDP growth and the unemployment rate ranging from 1948Q3 to 2019Q4, we study the stability of Okun’s law in the United States. This is done by estimating hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models that allow for time-variation in none, one or both of the equations. Model comparison based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relationship has not been stable. However, the amount of change in the dynamic relationship between the two variables is quantitatively very modest.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Sune Karlsson","Pär Österholm"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109622","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4c77a8e39a06ca79","title":"An old poor law on the Continent? Agrarian capitalism, poor taxes, and village conflict in eighteenth‐century coastal Flanders","abstract":"Poor relief provisions in early modern Europe are often considered to have been characterized by a divide between a uniform, compulsory, tax‐based, and relatively secure and generous poor law ‘system’ in England, and the more haphazard, voluntary, relatively parsimonious, insecure, and predominantly urban relief practices on the Continent. In this article we challenge these assumptions by arguing that the spread of agrarian capitalism in coastal Flanders fostered a reorganization of poor relief that displayed many features considered unique to the English old poor law, including the levying of poor taxes. By exploring the introduction, diffusion, and effects of poor taxes in the rural district of Furnes in the second half of the eighteenth century, we demonstrate that poor taxes were not unique to England, and sharpen our comparative understanding of the causes, implications, and conflicts associated with this particular way of raising revenue for the poor. This supports our more general contention that the influence of the normative framework should not be overstated: more than differences in legislation, similarities in socio‐economic development can explain variations in relief practices in preindustrial Europe.","wordCount":181,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Thijs Lambrecht","Anne Winter"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12611","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4c782c7acb38cd92","title":"Correcting misperceptions about trends and norms to address weak collective action — Experimental evidence from a recycling program","abstract":"Finding ways to encourage collective action in contexts where only a minority adopts the desired behavior is central to solving many of today’s global environmental problems. We study how correcting people’s beliefs about social norms and behavioral trends encourages collective action in a setting where the desired behavior is not yet prevalent. In a field experiment, we test whether low sign-up rates for a recycling program in urban Peru can be increased by providing information (1) that most people regard participation in the program as important, i.e., on the “injunctive norm”, (2) on an increasing recent trend in sign-up rates. We find that the effectiveness of the treatments depends on people’s prior beliefs: Correcting inaccurate beliefs increases sign-up decisions significantly among people who either substantially underestimate the injunctive norm or who underestimate the positive trend. As this sub-group of people is in the minority in our set-up, we do not observe statistically significant average treatment effects. We further find that the effects of the treatments increase in the level of underestimation. Our evidence demonstrates that belief updating can be used effectively to encourage collective action where it is weak as long as a meaningful number of people underestimates the relevant trends and norms.","wordCount":203,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel","Ben D’Exelle","Kristian López Vargas","Sebastian Tonke","Arjan Verschoor"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103046","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4c8e98bbdb18dc7a","title":"Ability Peer Effects in University: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment","abstract":"This article estimates peer effects originating from the ability composition of tutorial groups for undergraduate students in economics. We manipulated the composition of groups to achieve a wide range of support, and assigned students—conditional on their prior ability—randomly to these groups. The data support a specification in which the impact of group composition on achievement is captured by the mean and standard deviation of peers’ prior ability, their interaction, and interactions with students’ own prior ability. When we assess the aggregate implications of these peer effects regressions for group assignment, we find that low- and medium-ability students gain on an average 0.19 SD units of achievement by switching from ability mixing to three-way tracking. Their dropout rate is reduced by 12 percentage points (relative to a mean of 0.6). High-ability students are unaffected. Analysis of survey data indicates that in tracked groups, low-ability students have more positive interactions with other students, and are more involved. We find no evidence that teachers adjust their teaching to the composition of groups.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Adam S. Booij","Edwin Leuven","Hessel Oosterbeek"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw045","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4c94d032fe3fe4b8","title":"Telemedicine competition, pricing, and technology adoption: Evidence from talk therapists","abstract":"This paper examines how new telemedicine competitors affected incumbent health care providers during the first waves of COVID-19. Using data from the largest mental health provider search platform in Canada, I show that increased telemedicine competition in a market caused incumbent providers in that market to stop offering income-based discounts to patients. I isolate the causal effect of competition in a difference-in-differences framework, comparing providers before and after a supply shock on the platform that exogenously assigned some markets new telemedicine search results. I find that higher-quality providers are more likely to stop income-based discounts when facing new telemedicine entrants, while lower-quality providers are more likely to exit the platform, which is consistent with telemedicine providers competing for more price-sensitive patients. The results suggest that expanding telemedicine options had a heterogeneous effect on the affordability of care.","wordCount":137,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Daniel Goetz"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102956","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ca43f5c883aed41","title":"Who Really Benefits from Consumption Tax Cuts? Evidence from a Large VAT Reform in France","abstract":"This paper evaluates the incidence of a large cut in value-added taxes (VATs) for French sit-down restaurants in 2009. In contrast to previous studies, which only focus on the price effects of VAT reforms, we estimate the effects of the VAT cut on four groups: workers, firm owners, consumers, and suppliers of material goods. Using a difference-in-differences strategy on firm-level data, we find that: firm owners pocketed more than 55 percent of the VAT cut; consumers, sellers of material goods, and employees shared the remaining windfall with consumers benefiting the least; and the employment effects were limited.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Youssef Benzarti","Dorian Carloni"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170504","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4cb264d8b1741101","title":"Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk adjustments?","abstract":"To reconcile the disconnect between survey expectations of stock returns and rational expectations, researchers have hypothesized that survey participants may confound beliefs and preferences by (i) reporting risk-neutral forecasts of future returns; or (ii) reporting pessimistically-tilted forecasts reflecting ambiguity aversion or robustness concerns. We find that these hypotheses are strongly rejected by the data, albeit for different reasons: Inconsistent with hypothesis (i), survey return forecasts are reliably much higher than risk-free interest rates and survey expected excess returns are predictably time-varying. Inconsistent with (ii), agents are not always pessimistic about future returns, but often predictably optimistic and unconditionally unbiased.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Klaus Adam","Dmitry Matveev","Stefan Nagel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.04.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4cdd0c1e5bc68ce8","title":"Crime risk and housing values: Evidence from the gun offender registry","abstract":"This paper estimates the effects of crime risk on housing values. To estimate the causal effects, we rely on the introduction of the gun offender registry in Baltimore City, Maryland, that discloses the residences of ex-gun offenders to the public. Specifically, we exploit the changes in perceived crime risk after ex-gun offenders move into the neighborhoods. Our most conservative estimates indicate that houses within 0.1 miles from ex-gun offenders’ residences experience an 8.0% decline in value ($12,632) after these ex-gun offenders move in. Additional results suggest that homeowners are responding out of fear of victimization as we do not observe significant increases in crimes following the relocation of ex-gun offenders into the neighborhoods.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Cheng Keat Tang","Thao Le"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103526","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4cf0d0e42d0a2fa0","title":"Implementation in largest consistent set via rights structures","abstract":"The designer's exercise consists of designing a rights structure that formalizes the idea of power distribution in society. A solution is implementable in largest consistent set by a rights structure if there exists a rights structure such that for each preference profile, the largest consistent set of the game played by agents coincides with the set of outcomes that the solution would select for it. In a setting with transfers, every Maskin monotonic solution is implementable. This finding implies that the class of implementable solutions in core equilibria is unaltered by farsighted reasoning.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ville Korpela","Michele Lombardi","Hannu Vartiainen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.04.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4cf16a5f9f3f3829","title":"Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Evidence from China","abstract":"This paper analyzes the effect of resolving trade policy uncertainty on innovation in China from 1990 to 2007. Exploiting exogenous and heterogeneous exposure to the elimination of U.S. tariff uncertainty, together with detailed innovation data, the analysis shows that reducing tariff uncertainty generated economically and statistically significant increases in innovation. This increase represents actual innovation, and not just more patent filings. The timing of the response is heterogeneous: lower-quality innovations respond quickly, while higher-quality and higher-opportunity-cost innovations respond more gradually. Innovation increases along three margins: entry into new technologies, patents with broader technological scope, and innovation within firms’ existing technological portfolios. More exposed sectors experience larger increases in first-time patenting firms. Finally, the increase in innovation is at least in part driven by exports to the US.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Federica Coelli"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104170","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4cf538929937608a","title":"Heat and worker health","abstract":"Extreme heat negatively impacts cognition, learning, and task performance. With increasing global temperatures, workers may therefore be at increased risk of work-related injuries and illness. This study estimates the effects of temperature on worker health using records spanning 1985-2020 from an Australian mandatory insurance scheme. High temperatures are found to cause significantly more claims, particularly among manual workers in outdoor-based industries. These adverse effects have not diminished across time, with the largest effect observed for the 2015-2020 period, indicating increasing vulnerability to heat. Within occupations, the workers most adversely affected by heat are female, older-aged and higher-earning. Finally, results from firm-level panel analyses show that the percentage increase in claims on hot days is largest at \"safer\" firms.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Andrew Ireland","David Johnston","Rachel Knott"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102800","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-4d0018b507f75b8a","title":"Firms and Labor Market Inequality: Evidence and Some Theory","abstract":"We synthesize two related literatures on firm-level drivers of wage inequality. Studies of rent sharing that use matched worker-firm data find elasticities of wages with respect to value added per worker in the range of 0.05–0.15. Studies of wage determination with worker and firm fixed effects typically find that firm-specific premiums explain 20% of overall wage variation. To interpret these findings, we develop a model of wage setting in which workers have idiosyncratic tastes for different workplaces. Simple versions of this model can rationalize standard fixed effects specifications and also match the typical rent-sharing elasticities in the literature.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["David Card","Ana Rute Cardoso","Joerg Heining","Patrick Kline"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/694153","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4d03c937ffe82e4b","title":"Award-winning CEOs and corporate innovation","abstract":"We examine the role of award-winning CEOs in corporate innovative activities. We find no significant difference in innovation outputs between firms of media award-winning CEOs and a matched sample of predicted winners. However, firms headed by winners of non-media awards generate significantly more patents and citations in the second and third year after the award. Firms led by CEO-winners of media awards attract more interest in Google and see an increase in the number of financial analysts that follow them. These effects likely exert more pressure on managers to meet short-term goals and hence impede the firms’ innovation. We do not find the same effects for firms that have CEOs who win non-media awards. The latter category sees an improvement in employee treatment following the [grant]. These different channels explain why innovation only increases for firms that are headed by CEOs who win non-media awards.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Mia Hang Pham","Yulia V. Veld‐Merkoulova","Chris Veld"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107075","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4d0a94122c74bae4","title":"The Effects of Vertical Separation and Competition: Evidence from US Electric Utility Restructuring","abstract":"Competition usually increases firm productivity; but in network industries, effective competition requires vertical separation, which might reduce productivity and lead to a potential trade-off. We analyze the combined effect of competition and vertical separation on inefficient costs for US electricity industry restructuring. We estimate firm-level inefficiencies with the use of different nonparametric models of the technology and calculate net benefits with the use of difference-in-differences. The results depend on how we model the production technology and the length of the post-treatment horizon. The more flexible is the production frontier, the greater is the net benefit from divestiture and competition. Across our models the combined effect of divestiture and competition is positive.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michael G. Pollitt","Jafar Sadeghi","Thomas Triebs"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09953-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4d2fc2fc1155bc65","title":"The role of cognitive ability and personality traits for men and women in gift exchange outcomes","abstract":"We examine the role of cognitive ability and personality traits in a gift exchange experiment. Controlling for cognitive ability and personality characteristics, men offer higher wages than women, and men and women with greater cognitive ability and greater agreeableness on the Big Five personality scale offer higher wages as well. Men provide greater effort than women do, and respond to higher wage rates with greater increases in effort. For both genders, one standard deviation increases in agreeableness and in wages generate similar increases in effort. Serious biases arise from omitting cognitive ability and pooling men and women.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Emel Filiz‐Ozbay","John C. Ham","John H. Kagel","Erkut Özbay"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9503-2","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4d38ec91f56f8ddc","title":"Women’s political empowerment and economic growth","abstract":"We investigate whether and how women’s political empowerment relates to technological change, the main driver of long-term economic growth. We argue that three aspects of empowerment – descriptive representation, civil liberties protection, and civil society participation – advance technological change and thereby economic growth through (a) increasing the number and variability of new ideas introduced in the economy and (b) improving the selection of more efficient ideas. Drawing on data from 182 countries and 221 years, we test various implications from our argument. Women’s political empowerment is positively related to subsequent economic growth. This relationship persists across various model specifications and when accounting for different potential confounders. The three sub-components of empowerment are also, individually, related to growth, although not as strongly as the aggregated concept. The relationship is retained across different contexts, but is clearer for “Non-Western” countries and in earlier time periods. We also find evidence that women’s political empowerment enhances technological change.","wordCount":155,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Sirianne Dahlum","Carl Henrik Knutsen","Valeriya Mechkova"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105822","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4d47e8a6908b68dc","title":"The Effect of Public Insurance Expansions on Substance Use Disorder Treatment: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act","abstract":"We examine the effect of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on substance use disorder (SUD) treatment utilization and financing. We combine data on admissions to specialty facilities and Medicaid-reimbursed prescriptions for medications commonly used to treat SUDs in nonspecialty outpatient settings with an event-study design. Several findings emerge from our study. First, among patients receiving specialty care, Medicaid coverage and payments increased. Second, the share of patients who were uninsured and who had treatment paid for by state and local government payments declined. Third, private insurance coverage and payments increased. Fourth, expansion also increased prescriptions for SUD medications reimbursed by Medicaid. Fifth, we find suggestive evidence that admissions to specialty treatment may have increased one or more years post-expansion. However, this finding is sensitive to specification and we observe differential pretrends between the treatment and comparison groups. Thus, our finding for admissions should be interpreted with caution.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Johanna Catherine Maclean","Brendan Saloner"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22112","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4d4e12a0c9eda611","title":"The European Single Market in Electricity: An Economic Assessment","abstract":"The European single market in electricity has been promoted vigorously by the European Commission since 1996. We discuss how national electricity markets and cross-border electricity markets have been reshaped by the process. We examine the Commission’s own work on evaluating the benefits of the single market. We look at the wider evidence of impact on prices, security of supply, the environment, and innovation. We conclude that the institutional changes are extensive and there has been significant market harmonisation and integration. However, the measured benefits are difficult to identify, but likely to be small. This is partly because over the same period there has been a large rise in subsidised renewable generation that is driven by the decarbonisation agenda.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michael G. Pollitt"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09682-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4d54e18ea50bc3ce","title":"Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility","abstract":"Based on high-frequency data for more than fifty commodities, currencies, equity indices, and fixed-income instruments spanning more than two decades, we document strong similarities in realized volatility patterns within and across asset classes. Exploiting these similarities through panel-based estimation of new realized volatility models results in superior out-of-sample risk forecasts, compared to forecasts from existing models and conventional procedures that do not incorporate the similarities in volatilities. We develop a utility-based framework for evaluating risk models that shows significant economic gains from our new risk model. Lastly, we evaluate the effects of transaction costs and trading speed in implementing different risk models.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Tim Bollerslev","Benjamin Hood","John Huss","Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy041","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4d587e74ebbb63ab","title":"Gender Differences in Accepting and Receiving Requests for Tasks with Low Promotability","abstract":"Gender differences in task allocations may sustain vertical gender segregation in labor markets. We examine the allocation of a task that everyone prefers be completed by someone else (writing a report, serving on a committee, etc.) and find evidence that women, more than men, volunteer, are asked to volunteer, and accept requests to volunteer for such tasks. Beliefs that women, more than men, say yes to tasks with low promotability appear as an important driver of these differences. If women hold tasks that are less promotable than those held by men, then women will progress more slowly in organizations.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Linda Babcock","María P. Recalde","Lise Vesterlund","Laurie R. Weingart"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141734","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4d61f6856d3f33ac","title":"The Impact of Violence on Individual Risk Preferences: Evidence from a Natural Experiment","abstract":"We estimate the impact of Kenya's postelection crisis on individual risk preferences. The crisis interrupted a longitudinal survey of more than five thousand Kenyan youth, creating plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to civil conflict prior to the survey. Our results indicate that the postelection crisis sharply increased individual risk aversion. Immediately after the crisis, the fraction of subjects displaying extreme risk aversion increased by more than 80%. Findings remain robust when we use an IV estimation strategy that exploits random assignment of respondents to waves of surveying. The crisis also affected trust, social capital, and beliefs about the economy.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Pamela Jakiela","Owen Ozier"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00763","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4d6879fd4a6df25b","title":"Raising Aspirations and Higher Education: Evidence from the United Kingdom’s Widening Participation Policy","abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between aspirations and inequality in higher education participation. Using a regression discontinuity design, I evaluate the impact of a national-scale United Kingdom policy aimed at raising the aspirations toward college education of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds by involving them in outreach activities. The results show that the policy successfully raised the aspirations of the target students and their participation in postcompulsory education. However, its final effect on college enrollment was on the whole negligible, thus casting doubt on the effectiveness of policies that uniquely leverage aspirations to reduce inequality in educational attainment.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Lucia Rizzica"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/704571","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4d797b32077d01c3","title":"The evolving impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on gender inequality in the US labor market: The COVID motherhood penalty","abstract":"We explore whether COVID‐19 disproportionately affected women in the labor market using Current Population Survey data through the end of 2020. We find that male–female gaps in the employment‐to‐population ratio and hours worked for women with school‐age children have widened but not for those with younger children. Triple‐difference estimates are consistent with most of the reductions observed for women with school‐age children being attributable to additional childcare responsibilities (the “COVID motherhood penalty”). Conducting decompositions, we find women had a greater likelihood to telework, higher education levels and a less‐impacted occupational distribution, which all contributed to lessening negative impacts relative to men.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Kenneth A. Couch","Robert W. Fairlie","Huanan Xu"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13054","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4d8609f761a10697","title":"M&A advisory and the merger review process","abstract":"We analyze the effect of the disclosure of the expert’s contract on consumer welfare , and show that consumers are not necessarily better off with disclosure. Two firms propose a merger to the antitrust authority. They are uninformed about the efficiencies generated by the merger, but can hire an expert to gather information on their behalf. The authority is also uninformed about the merger’s efficiencies, but can run a costly internal investigation to learn them. We analyze the effect of the disclosure of the expert’s contract on consumer welfare, and show that consumers are not necessarily better off with disclosure. This possibility result hinges on a free-riding problem between expert and authority in the information acquisition game, and is more relevant in highly competitive industries .","wordCount":126,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michele Bisceglia","Salvatore Piccolo","Emanuele Tarantino"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102919","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4d98222a909e0b60","title":"Exploring the non-linear dynamics between Commercial Real Estate and systemic risk","abstract":"The link between CRE and systemic risk weakens in CRE market misalignment periods. The commercial real estate (CRE) market significantly influences financial stability, given its size, use as collateral, and cyclicality. This study explores macro-financial vulnerabilities arising from the CRE market, revealing that adverse developments in CRE capital values amplify systemic risk across financial sub-sectors, namely, banks, insurance companies and investment trusts, consistent with the collateral channel hypothesis . The CRE and financial markets relationship, however, displays nonlinearities. We introduce a UK CRE Misalignment index which integrates various market indicators to assess deviations from fundamental values in the CRE sector. We find that during market misalignments, the link between systemic risk and CRE growth weakens, suggesting that further property price increases in an overheated market could lead to a bubble and heightened systemic risk, in line with the deviation hypothesis . Finally, we employ a quantile regression model that captures another aspect of this non-linear relationship. We find that positive (negative) developments in the CRE market decrease (increase) the right tail of the historical systemic risk distribution, but CRE variation has a weak impact on the left tail and cannot effectively reduce systemic risk in periods of growth.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["George Kladakis","Nicole Lux","Alexandros Skouralis"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101607","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4d99a4ae62842b8b","title":"Profit‐enhancing entries in mixed oligopolies","abstract":"Mixed oligopolies are characterized by private and public enterprises. Previously, entry into these markets was restrictive. It has since been relaxed by deregulations, and as a result, private firms have entered mixed oligopolies. An increase in the number of private firms increases competition among them and reduces the profit of incumbent private firms, given the privatization policy remains unchanged. However, an increase in the number of private firms may affect privatization policy, and thus, indirectly affect private firms' profits. Therefore, the overall effect on private firms' profit is ambiguous. In this study, we investigate how the number of private firms affects the profit of each private firm in mixed oligopolies. We use a linear‐quadratic production cost function, which covers two popular model formulations in the mixed oligopoly literature. We show that if the degree of privatization is exogenous, the profit of each private firm decreases with the number of private firms. However, if the degree of privatization is endogenous, the relationship between the number of private firms and profit takes an inverted‐U shape under a plausible range of cost parameters. Our results imply that there can exist multiple equilibria in free‐entry markets with different degrees of privatization.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Junichi Haraguchi","Toshihiro Matsumura"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12506","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4db3d8d411084f88","title":"Are economic preferences shaped by the family context? The relation of birth order and siblings’ gender composition to economic preferences","abstract":"The formation of economic preferences in childhood and adolescence has long-term consequences for life outcomes. We study in an experiment how both birth order and siblings’ gender composition are related to risk, time, and social preferences. We find that second-born children are typically less patient, more risk-tolerant, and more trusting. However, siblings’ gender composition interacts importantly with birth order effects. Second-born children are more risk-taking only with same-gender siblings. In mixed-gender environments, children seem to identify with the gender stereotype that boys are much more willing to take risks than girls, irrespective of birth order. For trust and trustworthiness, birth order effects are larger with mixed-gender siblings. Only for patience, siblings’ gender composition does not matter.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Lena Detlefsen","Andreas Friedl","Katharina Lima de Miranda","Ulrich Schmidt","Matthias Sutter"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09433-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4dba26894bff6452","title":"Social housing and the spread of population: Evidence from twentieth century Ireland","abstract":"How does housing policy influence the long-run distribution of population? We examine the impact on long-term population dynamics of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme, specifically the case of Ireland’s Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883–1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. We also highlight the role of agglomeration in amplifying the impact of the initial investment. Mediation analysis suggests that schooling was a key factor, with districts receiving more cottages less likely to lose primary schools, thus further influencing population growth.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Alan de Bromhead","Ronan C. Lyons"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103603","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4dbe20cde8769806","title":"Asymmetric labor-supply responses to wage changes: Experimental evidence from an online labor market","abstract":"We test whether labor supply responds symmetrically to wage increases and decreases using a randomized real effort online experiment. The results show that wage increases have smaller effects on labor supply than wage decreases of equal magnitude, especially on the extensive margin where the response to a wage decrease is twice that to a wage increase. This finding suggests that labor-supply responses to wage changes are asymmetric. We discuss the potential mechanisms behind our results including standard models of labor supply, reference dependence in consumption and reciprocity.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Philipp Doerrenberg","Denvil Duncan","Max Löffler"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102305","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4dc2d9c1cd5e3de8","title":"Cities with forking paths? Agglomeration economies in New Zealand 1976–2018","abstract":"We consider whether external urban economic advantages (agglomeration economies) vary with time and space using detailed micro-data on 134 locations in New Zealand for the period 1976–2018. We find subtle temporal variation, with estimates of agglomeration economies peaking in 1991 and then falling by approximately 1 percentage point in the subsequent 15-years. Since 2006, however, estimates have remained broadly stable; the world has not been getting “flatter”. Our results reveal more significant spatial variation: Large cities offer net benefits in production but not consumption, whereas small locations close to large cities (“satellites”) experience agglomeration economies that are stronger than average.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Stuart Donovan","Thomas de Graaff","Arthur Grimes","H.L.F. de Groot","David C. Maré"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103799","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4dd00eac9de87392","title":"Should we stop meating like this? Reducing meat consumption through substitution","abstract":"High levels of meat consumption are increasingly being criticised for ethical, environmental, and social reasons. Plant-based meat substitutes have been identified as healthy sources of protein that, in comparison to meat, offer a number of social, environmental and health benefits and may play a role in reducing meat consumption. However, there has been a lack of research on the role they can play in the policy agenda and how specific meat substitute attributes can influence consumers to replace partially replace meat in their diets. In this paper, we examine consumers’ preferences for attributes of meat and meat substitute products and develop consumer segments based on these preferences. The results of a choice experiment with 247 UK consumers, using food labels and mince (ground meat), illustrate that the type of mince, fat content, country of origin and price are major factors that influence choice. Carbon footprint, method of production and brand play a secondary role in determining consumers’ choices of meat/meat substitutes. Latent class analysis is used to identify six consumer segments: price conscious, healthy eaters, taste driven, green, organic and vegetarian consumers which have different socio-demographic characteristics and meat consumption patterns. Future interventions and policies aimed at reducing meat consumption including labelling, provision of more information, financial incentives, educational campaigns and new product development will be more effective if they are holistic and target specific consumer segments, instead of focus on the average consumer.","wordCount":234,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Chrysostomos Apostolidis","Fraser McLeay"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.11.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4dd4b08105a04d61","title":"Ready to stop: socioeconomic status and the fertility transition in Stockholm, 1878–1926","abstract":"The western fertility decline is arguably the most significant demographic change to have occurred in the past 200 years, yet its causes and processes are still shrouded in ambiguity due to a lack of individual‐level longitudinal data. A growing body of research has helped improve our understanding of the decline's causes by examining the development of socioeconomic differences in fertility using historical micro‐data, but these have largely only considered rural areas where fertility was generally slower to decline. This article contributes to the literature by utilizing individual‐level data from the Roteman Database for Stockholm, Sweden between 1878 and 1926 to examine the association of socioeconomic status and fertility and the adoption of stopping behaviour during the city's transition. Using piecewise constant hazard models and logistic regression, we find that a clear class pattern arises in which the elite were early practitioners of fertility control, followed by the working classes. As the transition unfolded, socioeconomic differences in stopping behaviour disappeared and overall fertility differentials were also minimized, both of them being consistent with patterns observed in rural populations. The implications of these findings for major explanations of the decline are discussed in the concluding section.","wordCount":194,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Joseph Molitoris","Martin Dribe"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12275","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4dd9a404aa84c69e","title":"The long-term effects of job training on labor market and skills outcomes in Chile","abstract":"Limited effect of the program on skills might explain muted labor market outcomes. Job training programs can be an effective policy for improving productivity and labor market outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. We report medium- and long-term impacts of a job training program for vulnerable workers in Chile on labor market and skill outcomes using experimental and administrative data. We estimate intention-to-treat effects, accounting for potential non-compliance by training providers in the assignment process, as well as local average treatment effects due to noncompliance with the assigned treatment status. Overall, the program shows limited effectiveness. While we find some positive impacts on labor income, the program fails to improve most labor outcomes. A detailed investigation of heterogenous effects by course-type, training provider and course quality, and gender reveals that the positive income effects are more likely to be realized for males and participants in courses that were offered by high-quality providers. Evidence on mechanisms indicates that the program's limited impact on labor outcomes could, at least partly, be due to its limited effect on workers’ skills.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Annabelle Doerr","Rafael Novella"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102619","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4dda276bb12c194a","title":"The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States","abstract":"Data from millions of appraisals in 2012–2019 are used to estimate residential land prices, the share of house value attributable to land, and related statistics down to the census-tract level for areas that include the vast majority of U.S. population and single-family housing. The results confirm predictions about land prices from canonical urban models. Over 2012–2019, we show that land prices rose faster than house prices in large metro areas, boosting the land share of house value, while the land share fell in smaller metros. The data are available for download at https://www.fhfa.gov/papers/wp1901.aspx.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Morris A. Davis","William D. Larson","Stephen D. Oliner","Jessica Shui"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.12.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ddb8e9a2230989d","title":"The Impact of Government Debt, Expenditure and Taxes on Aggregate Investment and Productivity Growth","abstract":"In this paper we evaluate empirically the impact of fiscal policy on two key determinants of long‐term growth, i.e., private investment and productivity growth. We mostly focus on a panel of 20 OECD economies from 1970 to 2009, although we also present some estimates based on data for 80 developing economies. Our findings suggest that high public debt adversely affects both aggregate investment spending and productivity growth, through distortions related to the size of the public sector. We also find weak evidence of some non‐linear effects on productivity, with government debt becoming more detrimental in advanced economies when above 85–90% of GDP.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Simone Salotti","Carmine Trecroci"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12175","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4defc9147ea616f1","title":"Government spending effects in low-income countries","abstract":"Despite the voluminous literature on fiscal policy, very few papers focus on low-income countries (LICs). This paper develops a New Keynesian small open economy model to show, analytically and numerically, that several prevalent features of LICs—dependence on external financing, public investment inefficiency, and a low degree of home bias in public investment—play important roles in government spending effects. External financing increases the resource envelope, mitigating the crowding out effects, but it tends to appreciate the real exchange rate, lowering traded output. Although capital scarcity in LICs implies high returns to public capital, low marginal investment efficiency can substantially dampen the output multiplier. Also, public investment may not be effective in stimulating output in the short run, as LICs often rely on imports to a large extent to carry out public investment projects, weakening its role as a short-run demand stimulus.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Wenyi Shen","Shu-Chun Susan Yang","Luis‐Felipe Zanna"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.02.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4df28fff105db05b","title":"Reacting to ambiguous messages: An experimental analysis","abstract":"Ambiguous language is ubiquitous and often deliberate. Recent theoretical work (Bose and Renou, 2014; Kellner and Le Quement, 2018; Beauchêne et al., 2019) has shown how language ambiguation can improve outcomes by mitigating conflict of interest. Our experiment finds a significant effect of language ambiguation on subjects who are proficient at Bayesian updating. For ambiguity averse subjects within this population, a significant part of this effect operates via the channel of subjects' desire to reduce ambiguity. For both ambiguity averse and neutral subjects within this population, an additional behavioral channel is also present.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Christian Kellner","Mark T. Le Quement","Gerhard Riener"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.09.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4dfefc1b6488acc5","title":"Firm Response to Competitive Shocks: Evidence from China’s Minimum Wage Policy","abstract":"The large regional variation in minimum wage levels during the period 2002–8 in China implies that Chinese manufacturing firms experienced competitive shocks as a function of firm location and their low-wage employment share. We find that minimum wage hikes accelerate the input substitution from labour to capital, reduce employment growth and accelerate total factor productivity growth—particularly among the less productive firms under private Chinese or foreign ownership, but not among state-owned enterprises. The heterogeneous firm response to labour cost shocks can be explained by differences in management practices and suggests that management quality and competitive pressure are complementary.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Harald Hau","Yi Huang","Gewei Wang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz058","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e0dd421693638d8","title":"Research Design Meets Market Design: Using Centralized Assignment for Impact Evaluation","abstract":"A growing number of school districts use centralized assignment mechanisms to allocate school seats in a manner that reflects student preferences and school priorities. Many of these assignment schemes use lotteries to ration seats when schools are oversubscribed. The resulting random assignment opens the door to credible quasi-experimental research designs for the evaluation of school effectiveness. Yet the question of how best to separate the lottery-generated randomization integral to such designs from non-random preferences and priorities remains open. This paper develops easily-implemented empirical strategies that fully exploit the random assignment embedded in a wide class of mechanisms, while also revealing why seats are randomized at one school but not another. We use these methods to evaluate charter schools in Denver, one of a growing number of districts that combine charter and traditional public schools in a unified assignment system. The resulting estimates show large achievement gains from charter school attendance. Our approach generates efficiency gains over ad hoc methods, such as those that focus on schools ranked first, while also identifying a more representative average causal effect. We also show how to use centralized assignment mechanisms to identify causal effects in models with multiple school sectors.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Atila Abdulkadiroğlu","Joshua D. Angrist","Yusuke Narita","Parag A. Pathak"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13925","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e13e077d6a4bc84","title":"Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession","abstract":"This paper uses US local areas as a laboratory to test for long-term impacts of the Great Recession. In administrative longitudinal data, I estimate that exposure to a 1 percentage point larger 2007–9 local unemployment shock reduced 2015 working-age employment rates by over 0.3 percentage points. Rescaled, this long-term recession impact accounts for over half of the 2007–15 US age-adjusted employment decline. Impacts were larger among older and lower-earning individuals and typically involved a layoff but are present even in a mass-layoffs sample. Disability insurance and out-migration yielded little income replacement. These findings reveal that the Great Recession imposed employment and income losses even after unemployment rates signaled recovery.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Danny Yagan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701809","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e1c758be262c8e5","title":"Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements","abstract":"We challenge the common practice of estimating gravity equations with interval or averaged data in order to capture dynamic‐adjustment effects to trade‐policy changes. Instead, we point to a series of advantages of using consecutive‐year data recognizing dynamic‐adjustment effects. Our analysis reveals that, relative to interval or averaged data, the use of consecutive‐year data avoids downward‐biased effect estimates due to the distribution of trade‐policy events during an event window as well as due to anticipation (pre‐interval) and delayed (post‐interval) effects, and it improves the efficiency of effect estimates due to the use of more data.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Peter Egger","Mario Larch","Yoto V. Yotov"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12394","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4e1e0569d8ea0528","title":"Shining a Light on Purchasing Power Parities","abstract":"We use satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an independent benchmark of economic activity in order to generate three findings in the study of PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP. First, PPP-adjusted estimates better describe poor economies than do market exchange rate-based estimates today, although this was not the case in the late 1990s. Second, estimates of PPPs have been steadily improving from one price survey round to the next. Third, it has tended to be optimal to only use the latest price data and to revise existing PPP-adjusted estimates whenever a new price survey is released.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Maxim Pinkovskiy","Xavier Sala-i-Martín"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190037","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e26ac7971bd0159","title":"Gender effects for loss aversion: A reconsideration","abstract":"Gender differences in decision making is a topic that has attracted much attention in the literature and the debate seems to be inconclusive. In a recent study, Bouchouicha et al. (2019) using data from an incentivised experiment with almost 3000 students and 30 different countries, estimate gender effects assuming four commonly employed definitions of loss aversion. Despite the fact that their analysis is based on the same data and the same functional forms and econometric setup, their results are inconclusive regarding the existence and the direction of gender effects for loss aversion. In this study, we investigate two extensions of their work in an effort to shed some light on the potential reasons behind this contradictory result. In particular, we explore whether: (1) a more flexible estimation method that allows for individual heterogeneity and generates more robust estimates in the presence of noise and; (2) a different utility function, can generate more robust inference regarding gender effects. We show that while a more flexible Hierarchical Bayesian estimation method is not sufficient to explain the contradictory results, an alternative utility function detects a uniform gender effect, with women being always more loss-averse, regardless the adopted definition of loss aversion.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Konstantinos Georgalos"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102760","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4e3efdc3015efbfa","title":"Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network","abstract":"How to allocate vaccines over heterogeneous individuals is one of the important policy decisions in pandemic times. This paper develops a procedure to estimate an individualized vaccine allocation policy under limited supply, exploiting social network data containing individual demographic characteristics and health status. We model the spillover effects of vaccination based on a Heterogeneous-Interacted-SIR network model and estimate an individualized vaccine allocation policy by maximizing an estimated social welfare (public health) criterion incorporating these spillovers. While this optimization problem is generally an NP-hard integer optimization problem, we show that the SIR structure leads to a submodular objective function, and provide a computationally attractive greedy algorithm for approximating a solution that has a theoretical performance guarantee. Moreover, we characterize a finite sample welfare regret bound and examine how its uniform convergence rate depends on the complexity and riskiness of the social network. In the simulation, we illustrate the importance of considering spillovers by comparing our method with targeting without network information.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Toru Kitagawa","Guanyi Wang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.009","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-4e40077d1e4822ae","title":"British-French Technology Transfer from the Revolution to Louis Philippe (1791–1844): Evidence from Patent Data","abstract":"This paper examines the patterns of technology transfer from Britain to France during the early phases of industrializing using a dataset comprising all patents granted in France in the period 1791–1844. Exploiting the peculiarities of French legislation, we construct an array of patent quality indicators and investigate their determinants. We find that patents filed by British inventors or French inventors with personal connections to British inventors were of relatively higher quality. Overall, our results show that the French innovation system was capable of attracting and effectively absorbing key technologies from Britain.","wordCount":91,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Alessandro Nuvolari","Gaspare Tortorici","Michelangelo Vasta"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050723000232","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4e45c16b07ee723b","title":"Coase Lecture – The Glass Ceiling","abstract":"Despite decades of progress, women remain underrepresented in the upper part of the earnings distribution. We review the recent research trying to explain this phenomenon. After briefly revisiting gender differences in education, we turn our attention to a body of work that has argued that gender differences in psychological attributes are holding back women's earnings. We then review another active area of research focused on the challenges that women may face when trying to juggle competing demands on their time in the workplace and the home, particularly when the home includes children. We discuss recent work documenting women's greater demand for flexibility in the workplace, as well as work measuring the labour market penalties associated with such demand for flexibility, particularly in the higher paying occupations in the economy. We highlight possible countervailing forces (both at work and at home) that may explain why these work–family considerations may remain highly relevant to today's glass ceiling despite reduced time spent in non‐market work and a trend towards a more equal division of non‐market work between men and women. Finally, we discuss the role that public policy and human resource practices may play in adding more cracks to the glass ceiling.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Marianne Bertrand"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12264","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e4abb6ff8f4f298","title":"Legacies of loss: The health outcomes of slaveholder compensation in the British Cape Colony","abstract":"Can wealth shocks have intergenerational health consequences? We use the partial compensation slaveholders received after the 1834 slave emancipation in the British Cape Colony to measure the intergenerational effects of a wealth loss on longevity. We find that a greater loss of slave wealth shortened the lifespans of the generation of slaveholders that experienced the shock albeit these effects are usually small and mostly confined to older cohorts of slaveholders who likely exploited slaves both as labor and capital inputs. The lifespans of those of the second generation who survived infancy were unaffected by the shortfalls and no effects of the shortfall were found for the third generation.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Igor Martins","Jeanne Cilliers","Johan Fourie"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101506","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4e5bd76b9babf28c","title":"Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion","abstract":"I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. The findings indicate that both childbearing and abortions behave pro-cyclically, thus suggesting that changes in fertility rates arise not just from changes in planned pregnancy but also from a higher incidence of abortions. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35-49 age group, while younger women are largely unaffected.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Flavia Cavallini"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102492","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4e6006514f5bdcc2","title":"Effectiveness of climate policies: Carbon pricing vs. subsidizing renewables","abstract":"Most but not all economists view carbon pricing as most effective to combat carbon emissions, whereas other policies are widely applied and highly debated. We quantify the effectiveness of climate policies in the form of pricing carbon and subsidizing renewable energies for Germany's and Britain's power sectors. While Germany relies on heavy subsidies for renewables but on a weak price for carbon certificates (EUA) from the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), its emissions hardly declined. To underpin the low EUA price, Britain introduced a unilateral tax on power sector emissions, the Carbon Price Support (CPS). Within only five years, carbon emissions declined by 55%. Our results demonstrate that in the power sector, even a modest carbon price (∼€30/tCO2) can induce significant abatement at low costs within a short period as long as “cleaner” gas plants exist to replace “dirty” coal plants. We also find that carbon pricing is superior to subsidizing wind or solar power in these two countries.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Klaus Gugler","Adhurim Haxhimusa","Mario Liebensteiner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102405","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4e691caa0371bec7","title":"Image versus Information: Changing Societal Norms and Optimal Privacy","abstract":"We analyze the costs and benefits of using social image to foster desirable behaviors. Each agent acts based on his intrinsic motivation, private assessment of the public good, and reputational concern for appearing prosocial. A Principal sets the general degree of privacy, observes the social outcome, and implements a policy: investment, subsidy, law, etc. Individual visibility reduces free riding but makes aggregate behavior (“descriptive norm”) less informative about societal preferences (“prescriptive norm”). We derive the level of privacy (and material incentives) that optimally trades off social enforcement and learning, and we characterize its variations with the economy’s stochastic and informational structure.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["S. Nageeb Ali","Roland Bénabou"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180052","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e6bf897e08d77de","title":"Can information provision and preference elicitation promote ESG investments? Evidence from a large, incentivized online experiment","abstract":"Sustainable investing is characterized by considerations of both financial returns and ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) impacts. We investigate how information about these two aspects, individually and in combination, affects investors’ decision to invest sustainably and their satisfaction with the information they received. We also test whether different ESG preference elicitation modes affect these investment decisions and investors’ satisfaction. We conduct an incentivized online experiment with two samples, experienced retail investors and a representative sample of the Austrian population in terms of age and gender (N = 2,254 in total). We find that both financial return information and ESG impact information stimulate ESG investment. Providing both types of information does not have a greater effect than presenting either one alone. Finally, we find no effect on satisfaction and the ESG preference elicitation mode significantly affects neither investment decisions nor satisfaction.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Marcel Seifert","Florian Spitzer","Simone Haeckl","Alexia Gaudeul","Erich Kirchler","Stefan Palan","Katharina Gangl"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107114","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4e6f813a5f59e3a1","title":"Oil price shocks, inflation, and chinese monetary policy","abstract":"This paper proposes a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy incorporating the demand of oil to study the effects of oil price shocks on the business cycle. The model answers several questions, including how monetary policy should respond to the disturbances from such shocks, and whether monetary authorities should use core inflation or headline inflation including oil price inflation as the monetary policy rule. The contributions could be summarized as follows: First, the model reveals that the oil transmission mechanism is determined by the nominal inertia, income effect, and the portfolio allocation effect. Second, both noncore inflation monetary policy and core inflation monetary policy that are simultaneously pegged to oil prices fluctuations are inferior to the monetary policy purely pegged to core inflation. Our findings suggest that the monetary policy should focus on core inflation instead of headline inflation.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Yunqing Wang","Qigui Zhu","Jun Wu"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001097","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e6fae092372c207","title":"Changes Over Time in Multidimensional Poverty: Methodology and Results for 34 Countries","abstract":"This paper sets out a systemic account of intertemporal changes in multidimensional poverty using the Alkire-Foster Adjusted Headcount Ratio and its consistent sub-indices. It uses three techniques to assess the pro-poorness of multidimensional poverty reduction. The analysis of changes in multidimensional poverty draw on on the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and related destitution measure in 34 countries and 338 sub-national regions, covering 2.5 billion people, for which there is a recent MPI estimation and comparable Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) dataset across time. First, it assesses overall changes in poverty and its incidence and intensity, and compares this with changes in $1.90 poverty. Next, utilizing the property of subgroup decomposability, it examines changes in the MPI and its consistent sub-indices over time across urban-rural regions, sub-national regions and ethnic groups. The decomposition analysis identified relevant national patterns, including those in which the pace of poverty reduction is higher for the poorest subgroups. Finally, the paper analyses the dynamics of a strict subset of the poor, who are identified as 'destitute' using a more extreme deprivation cutoff vector, and studies relative rates of reduction of destitution and poverty by country and region. This extensive empirical analysis illustrates how to assess the extent and patterns of reduction of multidimensional poverty, as well as whether it is inclusive or whether some people or groups are left behind. Naturally, some further research questions emerge.","wordCount":231,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Sabina Alkire","José Manuel Roche","Ana Vaz"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4e7c405fee704a33","title":"Government debt and banking fragility: The spreading of strategic uncertainty","abstract":"This article studies the interaction of government debt and financial markets. This interaction, termed a “diabolic loop,” is driven by government choice to bail out banks and the resulting incentives for banks to hold government debt instead of self‐insure through equity buffers. We highlight the role of bank equity issuance in determining whether the “diabolic loop” is a Nash equilibrium of the interaction between banks and the government. When equity is issued, no diabolic loop exists. In equilibrium, banks' rational expectations of a bailout ensure that no equity is issued and the sovereign‐bank loop is operative.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Russell Cooper","Kalin Nikolov"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12323","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4e7defc592409045","title":"Contagion in graphons","abstract":"The analysis of threshold contagion processes in large networks is challenging. While the lack of accurate network data is often a major obstacle, finding optimal interventions is computationally intractable even in well-measured large networks. To obviate these issues we consider threshold contagion over networks sampled from a graphon—a flexible stochastic network formation model—and show that in this case the contagion outcome can be predicted by only exploiting information about the graphon. To this end, we exploit a second interpretation of graphons as graph limits to formally define a threshold contagion process on a graphon for infinite populations. We then show that contagion in large but finite sampled networks is well approximated by graphon contagion. This convergence result suggests that one can design interventions for large sampled networks by first solving the equivalent problem for an infinite population interacting according to the limiting graphon. We show that, under suitable regularity assumptions, the latter is a tractable problem and we provide analytical characterizations for the extent of contagion and for optimal seeding policies in graphons with both finite and infinite agent types.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Selman Erol","Francesca Parise","Alexander Teytelboym"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105673","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4e9fe0b76c328ad6","title":"The asymmetric effect of narratives on prosocial behavior","abstract":"We study how positive narratives (stories in favor of a prosocial action) and negative narratives (stories in favor of a selfish action) influence prosocial behavior in a series of lab and online experiments with more than 1500 subjects. We find that, both positive and negative narratives are effective at changing how actions are perceived. However, while positive narratives increase prosocial behavior, negative narratives do not move aggregate behavior and — if anything — lead to slightly more prosocial behavior. Our results indicate that this may be due to the fact that when following a negative narrative an individual is viewed as influenceable — something that appears to be undesirable. Taken together, our study suggests that positive and negative narratives are not just the flip sides of the same coin.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Adrian Hillenbrand","Eugenio Verrina"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.06.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4eb16ee6b2ccdf8c","title":"Ambiguous information and dilation: An experiment","abstract":"With standard models of updating under ambiguity, new information may increase the amount of relevant ambiguity: the set of beliefs may ‘dilate.’ We experimentally test one sharp case: agents bet on a risky urn and get information that is truthful or not based on the draw from an Ellsberg urn. With common models, the set of beliefs dilates, and the value of bets decreases for ambiguity-averse agents and increases for ambiguity-seeking ones. Instead, we find that the value of bets does not change for ambiguity-averse individuals, while it increases substantially for ambiguity-seeking ones. We also test bets on ambiguous urns, in which case we find sizable reactions to ambiguous information.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Denis Shishkin","Pietro Ortoleva"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105610","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4ebc2c8991427b38","title":"Compounding COVID-19 and climate risks: The interplay of banks’ lending and government’s policy in the shock recovery","abstract":"We assess the individual and compounding impacts of COVID-19 and climate physical risks in the economy and finance, using the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent model. We study the interplay between banks' lending decisions and government's policy effectiveness in the economic recovery process. We calibrate EIRIN on Mexico, being a country highly exposed to COVID-19 and hurricanes risks. By embedding financial actors and the credit market, and by endogenising investors' expectations, EIRIN analyses the finance-economy feedbacks, providing an accurate assessment of risks and policy co-benefits. We quantify the impacts of compounding COVID-19 and hurricanes on GDP through time using a compound risk indicator. We find that procyclical lending and credit market constraints amplify the initial shocks by limiting firms' recovery investments, thus mining the effectiveness of higher government spending. When COVID-19 and hurricanes compound, non-linear dynamics that amplify losses emerge, negatively affecting the economic recovery, banks' financial stability and public debt sustainability.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Nepomuk Dunz","Arthur Hrast Essenfelder","Andrea Mazzocchetti","Irene Monasterolo","Marco Raberto"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106306","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ecdb91f39e3591a","title":"Global factor premiums","abstract":"We examine 24 global factor premiums across equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets via replication and out-of-sample evidence between 1800 and 2016. Replication yields ambiguous evidence within a unified testing framework that accounts for p-hacking. Out-of-sample tests reveal strong and robust presence of the large majority of global factor premiums, with limited out-of-sample decay of the premiums. We find global factor premiums to be generally unrelated to market, downside, or macroeconomic risks in the 217 years of data. These results reveal significant global factor premiums that present a challenge to traditional asset pricing theories.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Guido Baltussen","Laurens Swinkels","Pim van Vliet"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.030","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ecfdb9371173b3e","title":"Agricultural commercialization and nutrition revisited: Empirical evidence from three African countries","abstract":"The transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture is key for economic growth. But what are the consequences for nutritional outcomes? The evidence to date has been scant and inconclusive. This study contributes to the debate by revisiting two prevailing wisdoms: (a) market participation by African smallholders remains low; and (b) the impact of commercialization on nutritional outcomes is generally positive. Using nationally representative data from three African countries, the analysis reveals high levels of commercialization by even the poorest and smallest landholders, with rates of market participation as high as 90%. Female farmers participate less, but tend to sell larger shares of their production, conditional on participation. Second, we find little evidence of a positive relationship between commercialization and nutritional status. As countries and international agencies prioritize the importance of nutrition-sensitive agriculture, better understanding of the transmission channels between crop choices and nutritional outcomes should remain a research priority.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Calogero Carletto","Paul Corral","Anita Guelfi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.020","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4ee37a635972f934","title":"Optimal information disclosure: A linear programming approach","abstract":"An uninformed sender designs a mechanism that discloses information about her type to a privately informed receiver, who then decides whether to act. I impose a single-crossing assumption, so that the receiver with a higher type is more willing to act. Using a linear programming approach, I characterize optimal information disclosure and provide conditions under which full and no revelation are optimal. Assuming further that the sender's utility depends only on the sender's expected type, I provide conditions under which interval revelation is optimal. Finally, I show that the expected utilities are not monotonic in the precision of the receiver's private information.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Anton Kolotilin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1805","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-4eed03a2b5f22d28","title":"Stakeholder preference and strategic corporate social responsibility","abstract":"This paper investigates the role of stakeholder preference on corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies. Using a staggered difference-in-difference approach, we show that Indian firms increase CSR expenses when trade restrictions (Antidumping) are initiated against competing Chinese exports from countries with a high stakeholder preference for CSR. However, when these shocks emanate from countries with a lower stakeholder preference, CSR expenses remain unchanged. Capital expenditure and R&D of Indian firms increase following AD shocks, irrespective of their country of origin. Finally, CSR increases firm value only when the demand shocks originate from countries with a higher CSR preference. Collectively, we provide evidence for consumer-driven CSR strategies.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Shantanu Banerjee","Swarnodeep Homroy","Aurélie Slechten"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102286","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4eefcc66ec0ce681","title":"The infant health effects of starting universal child benefits in pregnancy: Evidence from England and Wales","abstract":"Child benefits are typically paid from birth. This paper asks whether starting universal child benefits in pregnancy leads to improvements in infant health. Leveraging administrative birth registry and hospital microdata from England and Wales, I study the effects of the Health in Pregnancy Grant, a universal conditional cash transfer equivalent to three months of child benefit (190 GBP) as a lump sum to pregnant mothers from 2009 to 2011. I exploit quasi-experimental variation in eligibility with a regression discontinuity design in the date of birth of the baby. I find that the policy increased birth weight by 8-12 grams on average, reduced low birth weight (<2500 g) by 3-6 percent and decreased prematurity by 9-11 percent. Younger mothers, particularly those living in deprived areas, benefit the most. I present evidence that the mechanisms are unlikely to be antenatal care, nutrition or smoking, with reductions in stress remaining a possible explanation.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Mary Reader"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102751","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f0df7db63b9e92a","title":"Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?","abstract":"Solar geoengineering has received increasing attention as an option to temporarily stabilize global temperatures. A key concern is that heterogeneous preferences over the optimal amount of cooling combined with low deployment costs may allow the country with the strongest incentive for cooling, the so-called free-driver, to impose a substantial externality on the rest of the world. We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problem and tilt the game in favour of international cooperation. Our game-theoretical model of countries with asymmetric preferences allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering. We find that counter-geoengineering prevents the free-driver outcome, but not always with benign effects. The presence of counter-geoengineering leads to either a climate clash where countries engage in a non-cooperative escalation of opposing climate interventions (negative welfare effect), a moratorium treaty where countries commit to abstain from either type of climate intervention (indeterminate welfare effect), or cooperative deployment of solar geoengineering (positive welfare effect). We show that the outcome depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry in temperature preferences between countries.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Daniel Heyen","Joshua Horton","Juan Moreno‐Cruz"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.03.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f12a88cffbea0e6","title":"Entry regulations with implementation lag: Evidence from convenience store markets in Korea","abstract":"Seocho County in Korea attempted to advance the interests of incumbent businesses by weakening competition in the convenience store market. To this end, it created a regulation impeding the opening of new convenience stores. Although this regulation intensified proximity restrictions between stores, our findings reveal that the announcement of legislation condemned incumbent businesses to unfavorable survival probabilities. We provided supporting evidence that so-called implementation lags—time lags between the announcement and implementation of policies—and adaptive behaviors of potential store owners may have caused unintended consequences. Our findings imply that policymakers should consider implementation lag and the adaptive behaviors of economic agents.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Seongmin Seo","Sang Soo Park"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103057","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4f1bea3fc2f21fbc","title":"Misperceived Social Norms: Women Working Outside the Home in Saudi Arabia","abstract":"We show that the vast majority of young married men in Saudi Arabia privately support women working outside the home (WWOH) and substantially underestimate support by other similar men. Correcting these beliefs increases men’s (costly) willingness to help their wives search for jobs. Months later, wives of men whose beliefs were corrected are more likely to have applied and interviewed for a job outside the home. In a recruitment experiment with a local company, randomly informing women about actual support for WWOH leads them to switch from an at-home temporary enumerator job to a higher-paying, outside-the-home version of the job.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Leonardo Bursztyn","Alessandra L. González","David Yanagizawa-Drott"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180975","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4f20d4a5ce9fb35c","title":"Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?","abstract":"We study how introducing a central bank digital currency affects equilibrium allocations and welfare in an environment where both currency and bank deposits are used in exchange. We highlight an important policy tradeoff: while a digital currency tends to improve efficiency in exchange, it may also crowd out bank deposits, raise banks’ funding costs, and decrease investment. We derive conditions under which targeted digital currencies, which compete only with physical currency or only with bank deposits, raise welfare. If such targeted currencies are infeasible, we illustrate the policy tradeoffs that arise when issuing a single, universal digital currency.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Todd Keister","Daniel R. Sanches"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4f2aa9c528f52ae0","title":"Exclusion zones for renewable energy deployment: One man’s blessing, another man’s curse","abstract":"Exclusion zones, like protected areas or setback distances, are the most common policy instrument to mitigate environmental impacts of human land-use, including the deployment of renewable energy sources (RES). However, exclusion zones may also increase generation and environmental costs of RES deployment. This paper aims to understand and quantify these trade-offs. Using a simple analytical model, we propose that cost effects of exclusion zones can be decomposed into a substitution effect (because RES generation is shifted to sites with higher or lower marginal costs) and an output effect (because more sites may be needed to attain a given RES generation target). We provide a numerical illustration for two examples of exclusion zones – setback distances to settlements and forest bans – which are implemented for wind power deployment in Germany. We find that moderate setback distances reduce disamenity costs but also lead to increases in generation and other environmental costs. This trade-off is primarily due to the output effect. Importantly, the output effect also implies that very restrictive setback distances may fail to reduce, and even increase, aggregate disamenity costs of wind power deployment. For forest bans, our analysis reveals substantial increases in disamenity costs. This trade-off mainly results from the substitution effect. Our analytical insights can be transferred to other fields of environmental policy, for example, exclusion zones regulating agricultural land-use or urban development.","wordCount":225,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Paul Lehmann","Philip Tafarte"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101419","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4f2e9fd178039ee1","title":"Is it a green or brown job? A Taxonomy of Sustainable Employment","abstract":"Greening employment is required to avoid multiple ecological crises but so far there exist different notions of what makes a job ecologically sustainable. The article portrays five theoretical perspectives and develops a framework to evaluate the environmental impact of employment in four dimensions: (1) output type: sustainable goods and services as the outputs from work, (2) occupation: green tasks and activities at the workplace, (3) work-lifestyles: working conditions that promote workers' sustainable lifestyles, (4) outcome efficiency: resource-light production processes. It discusses previous approaches in each dimension and proposes improved assessment methods. By connecting the four dimensions, it develops a “Taxonomy of Sustainable Employment” to classify employment into green, mixed and brown jobs. The taxonomy can be applied to evaluate the sustainability of employment and identify effective labour market policies for a just transition.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Katharina Bohnenberger"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107469","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f30c9d1e52283ba","title":"Access to banking, savings and consumption smoothing in rural India","abstract":"To what extent does access to banking help poor households to save and smooth consumption? To answer this fundamental question, we combine a field experiment that randomly provides access to a bank account with weekly interviews on household finances. Access to banking does not change average consumption, but it improves consumption smoothing by alleviating savings constraints. Indeed, the control’s expenditures follow income more closely than the expenditures of the treated. The latter handle variations in income by engaging in pro-cyclical saving in their account. These results provide an important new insight into the role of banking in low- and middle-income countries.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Vincent Somville","Lore Vandewalle"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104900","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f319a5a18f6b1ec","title":"Widening access in university admissions","abstract":"Widening access to higher education remains a significant policy goal. Universities often frame and pursue these goals via access targets (target number of students from disadvantaged backgrounds) as part of their intake targets (target total number of students). However, universities' desire to exercise flexibility in their access and intake targets constitutes a novel challenge in designing a centralised admissions system. We introduce the Flexible Access and Intake Targets mechanism that is strategy-proof for the students and enables the universities to pursue their flexible access and intake targets with the most qualified applicants possible. The mechanism is based on an iterative market clearing procedure whose key element is its systematic adjustment of targets in each step in response to fluctuations in applicant numbers. We formulate a fairness concept for matchings that strikes a balance between widening access and merit-based allocation. Our mechanism finds the unique student-optimal fair matching.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Battal Doğan","Aytek Erdil"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.105973","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f39c0eb38d47847","title":"The Perception of Inequality of Opportunity in Europe","abstract":"Does the way in which scholars measure inequality of opportunity correspond to how people perceive it? What other factors influence individual perception of this phenomenon? To answer these questions, we must first clarify how scholars define and measure inequality of opportunity. We discuss the possible mechanisms linking objective measures to subjective perception of the phenomenon, then propose a measure of perceived inequality of opportunity, and finally test our hypothesis by merging data from two sources: the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (2011) and the International Social Survey Programme (2009). We suggest that the prevailing perception of the degree of unequal opportunity in a large sample of respondents is only weakly correlated with its objective measure. We estimate a multilevel model considering both individual‐ and country‐level controls to explain individual perception of unequal opportunity. Our estimates suggest that the two most adopted measures of inequality of opportunity have no clear role in explaining its perception. Conversely, other country‐level variables and personal experiences of intergenerational social mobility are important determinants of how inequality of opportunity is perceived.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Paolo Brunori"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12259","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4f3ab3348b5a2b22","title":"A search-theoretic model of the term premium","abstract":"A consistent empirical feature of bond yields is that term premia are, on average, positive. The majority of theoretical explanations for this observation have viewed the term premia through the lens of the consumption based capital asset pricing model. In contrast, we harken to an older empirical literature that attributes the term premium to the idea that short maturity bonds are inherently more liquid. The goal of this paper is to provide a theoretical justification of this concept. To that end, we employ a monetary-search model extended to include assets of different maturities. Short term assets mature in time to take advantage of random consumption opportunities. Long term assets cannot be used directly to purchase consumption, but agents may liquidate them in a secondary asset market characterized by search and bargaining frictions. Our model delivers three results that are consistent with empirical facts. First, long term assets have higher rates of return in steady state to compensate agents for their relative lack of liquidity. Second, since the difference in the yield of short and long term assets reflects asset market frictions, our model predicts a steeper yield curve for assets that trade in less liquid secondary markets. Third, our model predicts that freshly issued (“on-the-run”) assets will sell at higher prices than previously issued (“off-the-run”) assets that mature in nearby dates, because sellers of the latter have a more urgent need for liquidity.","wordCount":233,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Athanasios Geromichalos","Lucas Herrenbrueck","Kevin D. Salyer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1945","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-4f3ada80ef38e0c0","title":"Integrated assessment of nitrogen runoff to the Gulf of Mexico","abstract":"An integrated hydro-economic agricultural land use model was developed with endogenous and spatially explicit crop planting, nitrogen (N) fertilizer use and irrigation in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). We used the model to quantify the effects of energy and N fertilizer prices on N runoff to the Gulf of Mexico. Results show a modest effect of energy costs and a more substantive impact of N fertilizer costs on N delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. A 30 % reduction (increase) in N fertilizer price leads to a 3.5 % and 1.5 % increase (2.9 % and 1.5 % decrease) in N use and runoff, respectively. The model was also used to estimate the opportunity cost of N runoff abatement. The opportunity cost of reducing N runoff from crop production to the Gulf by 45 % is estimated to be $6 billion annually, which corresponds to an average cost of $29.3 per kg of N runoff reduction. The results show heterogeneities in the optimal N runoff reduction efforts across counties within the MRB, demonstrating the significance of a targeted abatement strategy.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Yuelu Xu","Levan Elbakidze","Haw Yen","Jeffrey G. Arnold","Philip W. Gassman","Jason A. Hubbart","Michael P. Strager"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101279","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4f47a684182289a9","title":"Acute illness symptoms among investment professionals and stock market dynamics: Evidence from New York City","abstract":"In the U.S., stock market professionals (e.g., traders, portfolio managers, and analysts) are clustered in New York City (NYC). In view of this, I exploit daily changes in the incidence of acute illness symptoms among 18–64 year old New Yorkers to identify exogenous variation in the rate of acute illness among market professionals and estimate its causal impact on key stock market outcomes. A detailed analysis of taxi trips from a sample of financial institutions to local hospitals provides support for my identification assumption. Other things equal, increased rates of acute physical illness (i.e., reduced productivity) among market professionals hamper price discovery and lower trading activity, volatility, and returns. A one-standard-deviation increase in my illness incidence proxy reduces by 18% (6.7%) the immediate response of stock prices to earnings surprises (changes in analysts’ consensus recommendations) and increases by 29% (42%) their delayed response.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Gabriele M. Lepori"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.12.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f48b49e55bd47a6","title":"Does happiness drive tourism decisions?","abstract":"This research examines the role that happiness plays in affecting tourism flows. While most previous studies are country-specific, our analysis is performed with panel data on 142 countries from 2005 to 2019. This allows us to implement a structural gravity model that includes both domestic and international tourism flows, which is a novel approach in this branch of the literature. Our empirical strategy enables us to correctly identify happiness when multilateral resistance terms are included. The results show that happiness at a destination is a significant tourist attractor, although the link follows an inverted U-shaped pattern. This suggests that tourists associate happiness with the quality of life at a destination but after a threshold, it becomes less important. Moreover, when cultural distance is greater, the effect of happiness on tourism arrivals is smaller. Therefore, tourists can better interpret happiness when origin and destination cultures are similar.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Jordi Paniagua","Jesús Peiró‐Palomino","María Santana-Gallego"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105824","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4f592ce7365f4a2d","title":"The demise of branch banking – Technology, consolidation, bank fragility","abstract":"We study bank branching dynamics across 3,143 US counties and 26 years. During the last decade, banks closed their branches at an unprecedented rate. At its peak in 2009, there were 90,783 branches. By 2020, this number has fallen by 12 percent. While technological factors correlate with these branching dynamics, bank fragility and consolidation are also strongly associated with changes in the number of branches (and their openings and closures). Interestingly, technological capabilities to service customers, such as online banking, seem less tightly linked to de-branching than technological capabilities to process internal information. Our analysis shows that large banks rely on internal technology to shed branches, while small banks close branches when they are vulnerable or consolidate.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Jan Keil","Steven Ongena"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107038","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f5b90eb15ec2180","title":"If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?","abstract":"This paper studies the international spillovers of US monetary policy shocks on a number of macroeconomic and financial variables in 36 advanced and emerging economies. In most countries, a surprise US monetary tightening leads to depreciation against the dollar; industrial production and real GDP fall, unemployment rises. Inflation declines especially in advanced economies. At the same time, there is significant heterogeneity across countries in the response of asset prices, and portfolio and banking cross-border flows. However, no clear-cut systematic relation emerges between country responses and likely relevant country characteristics, such as their income level, dollar exchange rate flexibility, financial openness, trade openness vs. the US, dollar exposure in foreign assets and liabilities, and incidence of commodity exports.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Luca Dedola","Giulia Rivolta","Livio Stracca"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4f62138ee2859227","title":"The social construction of ignorance: Experimental evidence","abstract":"We experimentally study the social transmission of “inconvenient” information about the externalities generated by one's own decision. In the laboratory, we pair uninformed decision makers with informed senders. Compared to a setting where subjects can choose their information directly, we find that social interactions increase selfish decisions. On the supply side, senders suppress almost 30 percent of “inconvenient” information, driven by their own preferences for information and their beliefs about the decision maker's preferences. On the demand side, about one-third of decision makers avoids senders who transmit inconvenient information (“shooting the messenger”), which leads to assortative matching between information-suppressing senders and information-avoiding decision makers. Having more control over information generates opposing effects on behavior: selfish decision makers remain ignorant more often and donate less, while altruistic decision makers seek out informative senders and give more. We discuss applications to information sharing in social networks and to organizational design.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ivan Soraperra","Joël J. van der Weele","Marie Claire Villeval","Shaul Shalvi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.12.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f6dc73c471eb4af","title":"The effects of increasing the normal retirement age on health care utilization and mortality","abstract":"This essay estimates the health effects of increasing the normal retirement age using Swedish administrative data on drug prescriptions, hospitalizations, and mortality. To this end, I use a reform that raised the age at which broad categories of Swedish local government workers were entitled to retire with full pension benefits from 63 to 65. Estimating the effect of the reform on individuals’ health within the age range 65–69, the results show no evidence that the reform impacted mortality or health care utilization. Increasing the normal retirement age may thus have positive government income effects without seriously affecting short to medium run government health care expenditures.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Johannes Hagen"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-017-0664-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f6e1d87056b9342","title":"Former Foreign Affiliates: Cast Out and Outperformed?","abstract":"The literature has documented a positive effect of foreign ownership on firm performance. But is this effect due to a one-time knowledge transfer or does it rely on continuous injections of knowledge? To shed light on this question we focus on divestments, that is, foreign affiliates that are sold to local owners. To examine the effect of the ownership change we combine a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching.We use plant-level panel data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing covering the period 1990-2009. We consider 157 cases of divestment, where a large set of plant characteristics is available two years before and three years after the ownership change and for which observationally similar control plants exist. The results indicate that divestment is associated with a drop in total factor productivity accompanied by a decline in output, markups, as well as export and import intensities. The findings are consistent with the benefits of foreign ownership being driven by continuous supply of headquarter services from the foreign parent.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Beata Smarzynska Javorcik","Steven Poelhekke"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw010","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-4f709167f8d5155a","title":"Experimentation with Self-Serving Attribution Biases","abstract":"We study an experimentation problem in a situation where the outcomes depend on the decision-maker’s intrinsic ability and on an external variable. We analyze the mistakes made by individuals who hold inaccurate prior beliefs about their ability. Overconfident individuals take too much credit for their successes and excessively blame external factors if they fail. They are too easily dissatisfied with their environment, which leads them to experiment in variable environments and revise their self-confidence over time. In contrast, underconfident individuals might be trapped in low-quality environments and incur perpetual utility losses.","wordCount":91,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Nina Hestermann","Yves Le Yaouanq"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180326","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4f72c2687ec8d535","title":"Learning by litigating: An application to antitrust commitments","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of commitment decisions on the efficiency of antitrust enforcement. We discuss the optimal use of commitments considering past rulings as a source of knowledge to better assess future similar antitrust cases. Our framework combines two key effects: the deterrence of the anticompetitive behavior by the different enforcement regimes, and the dynamic perspective through litigation as a source of learning. We show that if the level of penalty is high enough, the antitrust authorities undervalue the dynamic informational benefit of litigation and tend to over-use commitments.","wordCount":90,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Andreea Cosnita‐Langlais","Jean‐Philippe Tropeano"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102795","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4f85e38f07db91c3","title":"Firms amid conflict: Performance, production inputs, and market competition","abstract":"We study the effect of conflict on firms’ economic performance and the underlying mechanisms. We develop a simple theoretical framework in which conflict reduces a firm’s output, induces input substitution, and increases firms’ exit. In our empirical analysis, we combine an original dataset of Libyan firms and geolocalized data on conflict events during the Second Libyan Civil War to show that, in line with the predictions of the model, conflict reduces a firm’s revenues and increases exit, relatively more for firms intensive in foreign inputs. We also document that, conditional on survival, the negative effect of conflict on revenues is non-linear, with its marginal effect decreasing as conflict intensity increases. Two mechanisms drive this result: the heterogeneous conflict-induced reduction in the availability of production inputs and the weaker market competition due to the conflict-induced decrease in the number of a firm’s competitors.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Davide Del Prete","Michele Di Maio","Aminur Rahman"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103143","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4fa2291617824eb3","title":"Trickle-Down Consumption","abstract":"We document that nonrich households consume a larger share of their current income when exposed to higher top income and consumption levels. Permanent income, wealth effects, and upward local price pressures cannot provide the sole explanation for this finding. Instead, we show that the budget shares that nonrich households allocate to more visible goods and services rise with top income levels, consistent with status-maintaining explanations for our primary finding. Nonrich households might have saved up to 3% more annually by the mid-2000s had incomes at the top grown at the same rate as median income since the early 1980s.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Marianne Bertrand","Adair Morse"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00613","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4fa9fdda9dc9cd60","title":"(Dis)satisfaction with risk preferences","abstract":"A common assumption of models of decision making under risk is that people choose the level of risk they deem optimal for themselves. We, however, provide novel evidence that people systematically choose risk levels that they report as unsatisfactory. Data from three surveys show that around 50 percent of participants report dissatisfaction with the level of risk they take in life overall, and that a large majority of participants are dissatisfied with their risk taking in at least some subdomain of life. Significantly, for most (although not all) domains, far more of those who express dissatisfaction with their risk taking believe they take insufficient as opposed to excessive risks. Probing mechanisms, we find that internal factors (e.g., emotions) are more important determinants of unsatisfactory risk taking than external factors (e.g., constraints). Our findings suggest that choices under risk, like choices across time, may be explained by dual process theories that incorporate both deliberation and emotions. We also find a strong negative correlation between dissatisfaction with risk taking and life satisfaction. While our data do not enable us to establish causality, this finding provides suggestive evidence that dissatisfaction with risk taking may be consequential for subjective well-being.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Linda Thunström","Andréa Mannberg","Ben Gilbert","George Loewenstein"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-025-09449-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4fabf75f13218051","title":"A high resolution input–output model to assess the economic impact of floods","abstract":"The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are rising due to global warming. Beyond damaging physical assets, these events can cause substantial economic losses through business interruptions and cascading shocks across production networks. The paper introduces a computational inter-regional input–output framework to assess the economic impacts of river floods in Italy. The model leverages a georeferenced database of productive plants built from the ASIA-local units database. By aligning plant coordinates with inundation maps, it enhances the identification of affected units, their associated water depth, and the shock caused to sectors’ productive capacity. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we apply it to the major flood event that struck Emilia-Romagna in May 2023, quantifying both direct and indirect economic losses from business interruptions across sectoral, regional, and national levels.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Jlenia Di Noia","Alessandro Caiani","Luigi Cesarini","Marcello Arosio","Beatrice Monteleone"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106896","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4fb7771a2b19a734","title":"Nonparametric Evidence on the Effects of Financial Incentives on Retirement Decisions","abstract":"This paper presents new evidence on the effects of retirement benefits on labor force participation decisions. The analysis is based on a mandated rule for employer-provided retirement benefits in Austria that creates discontinuities in the incentives for workers to delay retirement. The paper presents graphical evidence on labor supply responses and develops a conceptual framework that accounts for the dynamic incentive structure and for adjustment frictions. Using bunching methods, a semi-elasticity of participation is estimated, which ranges from 0.1 to 0.3 and is highest for incentives targeted at a delay in retirement by 6 to 9 months.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Day Manoli","Andrea Weber"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140209","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-4fbfd4c030c4d9a7","title":"Single monopoly profits, vertical mergers, and downstream foreclosure","abstract":"We review the Chicago school's single monopoly profit theory whereby an upstream monopolist cannot increase its profits through vertical integration as it anyway has sufficient market power. In our model the dominant supplier has full bargaining power, uses observable two-part tariffs, and is only constrained by a less efficient source (such as in-house production). We show that, by vertically integrating with a downstream incumbent, the supplier can profitably commit to pricing more aggressively if a downstream entrant refuses its supply contract. This can foreclose the downstream market. The anti-competitive effects arise from the seemingly pro-competitive elimination of double marginalization.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Matthias Hunold","Jannika Schad"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.103031","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-4fc864b6e4d3b302","title":"Legalization and innovation in the cannabis market","abstract":"How would legal institutions affect the rate and direction of innovation in restricted or illicit markets? This paper studies the impact of legalization on innovation in the cannabis market. We construct novel data and measures on cannabis-related innovation in clinical trials and patent applications at the state-year level. We use staggered difference-in-differences models and event studies to analyze the impacts of medical and recreational cannabis legalization (MCL and RCL, respectively) on innovation. We find no evidence that cannabis-related clinical trials respond to MCLs or RCLs. However, there is a marked increase in cannabis-related patenting ( ∼ 4.4 patents) in response to an RCL and more modest impacts from an MCL ( ∼ 1.4 patents). Notably, additional RCL-induced patents are focused primarily on downstream products and methods rather than upstream medical innovation; MCL impacts show a similar pattern. Our further analysis of patent content suggests significant growth in areas that may raise public health, safety, and misuse concerns. These results suggest that legalization increases innovation in the cannabis market, but with relatively weak gains in areas pertinent to health and safe use. We corroborate our findings with multiple new empirical methods in the literature.","wordCount":193,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Lucy Xiaolu Wang","Nathan W. Chan"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103272","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-4fdfc57f19cbb3f8","title":"Improved on-farm storage reduces seasonal food insecurity of smallholder farmer households – Evidence from a randomized control trial in Tanzania","abstract":"Ending hunger is a key goal of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted in 2015. This goal notwithstanding, the prevalence of severe food insecurity of the world’s population has increased. It is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of harvests leads to fluctuations in food insecurity, particularly in the lean season, the time before the harvest is brought in. We posit that addressing seasonal food insecurity requires not only increased food production, as is commonly argued, but also consideration of post-harvest losses during storage. Here we present the results of a randomized control trial on the effects of improved on-farm storage on seasonal food insecurity. Our intervention provided farming households from two districts in Tanzania with hermetic storage bags that can help reduce storage losses. Seasonal food insecurity was measured via multiple rounds of SMS-based surveys. The results show that the intervention reduced the proportion of severely food insecure households by 38% on average in the lean season, and by 20% in the full seasonal cycle. These findings demonstrate that a simple and inexpensive technology could contribute strongly to reducing seasonal food insecurity and improving smallholder farmers’ year-round access to food.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Michael Brander","Thomas Bernauer","Matthias Huss"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101891","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-50080ab49c8eafc0","title":"Pareto Models, Top Incomes and Recent Trends in UK Income Inequality","abstract":"I determine UK income inequality levels and trends by combining inequality estimates from tax return data (for the ‘rich’) and household survey data (for the ‘non‐rich’), taking advantage of the better coverage of top incomes in tax return data (which I demonstrate) and creating income variables in the survey data with the same definitions as in the tax data to enhance comparability. For top income recipients, I estimate inequality and mean income by fitting Pareto models to the tax data, examining specification issues in depth, notably whether to use Pareto I or Pareto II (generalized Pareto) models, and the choice of income threshold above which the Pareto models apply. The preferred specification is a Pareto II model with a threshold set at the 99th or 95th percentile (depending on year). Conclusions about aggregate UK inequality trends since the mid‐1990s are robust to the way in which tax data are employed. The Gini coefficient for individual gross income rose by around 7% or 8% between 1996/7 and 2007/8, with most of the increase occurring after 2003/4. The corresponding estimate based wholly on the survey data is around −5%.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Stephen P. Jenkins"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12217","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-500bc0a8fd775b88","title":"Circular economy, operational eco-efficiency, and sufficiency. An integrated view","abstract":"Researchers have proposed different approaches to reduce the use of natural resources to a sustainable level. Operational eco-efficiency, circular economy, and sufficiency are three prominent examples that follow their own specific logics. So far, these approaches have been almost exclusively discussed in isolation, with the assumption that they are independent of each other. This paper brings all three approaches together in one coherent model. Our model shows that individually each approach can reduce the use of natural resources to a sustainable level. Yet, our model also reveals how various effects arise as a direct result of combining approaches, i.e. one approach affects another when executed in tandem. Our model identifies operational eco-efficiency and circular economy as ‘no regret’ approaches, while sufficiency constitutes a ‘regret’ approach. By way of example, we show that increasing operational eco-efficiency increases the costs or ‘regret’ of sufficiency approaches, reducing their effectiveness. Sufficiency approaches and increasing operational eco-efficiency risk interfering with the careful balance that is required for optimal circularity. We find that these interactions must be carefully considered if the three approaches are to be effective in reducing resource consumption to a sustainable level.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Frank Figge","Andrea Thorpe"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107692","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5011ae0543f1e65f","title":"The Mission: Human Capital Transmission, Economic Persistence, and Culture in South America","abstract":"This article examines the long-term consequences of a historical human capital intervention. The Jesuit order founded religious missions in 1609 among the Guaraní, in modern-day Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Before their expulsion in 1767, missionaries instructed indigenous inhabitants in reading, writing, and various crafts. Using archival records, as well as data at the individual and municipal level, I show that in areas of former Jesuit presence—within the Guaraní area—educational attainment was higher and remains so (by 10%–15%) 250 years later. These educational differences have also translated into incomes that are 10% higher today. The identification of the positive effect of the Guaraní Jesuit missions emerges after comparing them with abandoned Jesuit missions and neighboring Franciscan Guaraní missions. The enduring effects observed are consistent with transmission mechanisms of structural transformation, occupational specialization, and technology adoption in agriculture.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Felipe Valencia Caicedo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-501b4b6c531e1424","title":"Understanding the resistance to carbon taxes: Drivers and barriers among the general public and fuel-tax protesters","abstract":"Carbon taxes are generally well [journal]. We study attitudes toward carbon taxation and other environmental policy instruments in Sweden. We survey a national sample of the population as well as members of a large political movement that protests fuel taxes. Our results show that the motivations in both groups are alike: educational level, rural versus urban domicile, political orientation, and especially trust in government correlate with opinions on carbon taxes; household income does not appear to matter. Lack of trust in government and lack of belief in the Pigouvian mechanism appear as especially important motivations for protesters’ opposition. We find support for revenue refunding, but greater support, in both groups, for earmarking for climate use.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Jens Ewald","Thomas Sterner","Erik Sterner"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101331","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5020025d9b764dad","title":"The impact of international trade on CO2 emissions in oil exporting countries: Territory vs consumption emissions accounting","abstract":"While international trade and Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been well-studied, a panel of only oil-exporting developing economies has not been considered. This paper addresses that gap by investigating the role of the trade in CO2 emissions using a panel of nine oil exporting countries. In addition, we examine the impacts of exports and imports separately, and we consider two measures of CO2 emissions-those based on consumption, and thus, adjusted for trade, and those based on territory (i.e., the typical approach in the literature). The results from cointegration and error correction modeling show that exports and imports have statistically significant impacts of opposite signs on Consumption-based CO2 emissions in both the long- and short-run and that the effects of changes in the trade-CO2 emissions relationship will fully be absorbed around three years. However, exports and imports are statistically insignificant for Territory-based CO2 emissions.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Fakhri Hasanov","Brantley Liddle","Jeyhun I. Mikayilov"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.06.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5024e9b5b5a4c6e3","title":"Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand","abstract":"This paper examines the role of uncertainty shocks in a one-sector, representative-agent dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model. When prices are exible, uncertainty shocks are not capable of producing business-cycle comovements among key macro variables. With countercyclical markups through sticky prices, however, uncertainty shocks can generate uctuations that are consistent with business cycles. Monetary policy usually plays a key role in osetting the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. If the central bank is constrained by the zero lower bound, then monetary policy can no longer perform its usual stabilizing function and higher uncertainty has even more negative eects on the economy. Calibrating the size of uncertainty shocks using uctuations in the VIX, we nd that increased uncertainty about the future may indeed have played a signicant role in worsening the Great Recession, which is consistent with statements by policymakers, economists, and the nancial press.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Susanto Basu","Brent Bundick"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13960","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-50281a8c810fed0d","title":"Competitive Price Discrimination in Asymmetric Oligopoly","abstract":"Segmentation seldom results in symmetric market demands in the real world. We allow the demands in the segmented markets to exhibit asymmetric market characteristics across firms as well as markets, and study the effects of asymmetries on equilibrium prices and profits under price discrimination. Using a standard linear demand system for differentiated oligopolies, we show that both best-response symmetry and best-response asymmetry can arise—dependent on the parameter values. Distinguishing between inter-market and inter-firm parameter asymmetries, we find that the former is consequential in determining equilibrium price rankings as well as best-response (a)symmetries, while the latter controls the overall competitiveness of a segmented market and thus influences equilibrium profits. We also find that profits tend to increase with strong asymmetries, which results in enhanced profits with discrimination under the environments of best-response asymmetry. This result highlights the importance of a market expansion effect that is often overlooked in the best-response asymmetry literature that employs a unit-demand Hotelling structure.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Ki-Eun Rhee"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-10004-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-503a33585f4014ff","title":"The Global Water Grabbing Syndrome","abstract":"Large-scale acquisitions of agricultural land in developing countries have been rapidly increasing in the last 10 years, contributing to a major agrarian transition from subsistence or small scale farming to large-scale commercial agriculture by agribusiness transnational corporations. Likely driven by recent food crises, new bioenergy policies, and financial speculations, this phenomenon has been often investigated from the economic development, human right, land tenure and food security perspectives, while its hydrologic implications have remained understudied. It has been suggested that a major driver of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) is the quest for water resources that can be used (locally) to sustain agricultural production in the acquired land. The appropriation of water resources associated with LSLAs has often been termed ‘water grabbing’, though to date a formal definition of such a normative and inherently pejorative term is missing. The intrinsic assumption is that the acquisition of water undergoes the same dynamics of unbalanced power relationships that underlie many LSLAs. Here we invoke hydrological theories of “green” and “blue” water flows to stress the extent to which water appropriations are inherently coupled to land acquisitions and specifically focus on blue water. We then propose a formal definition of blue water grabbing based both on biophysical conditions (water scarcity) and ethical implications (human right to food). Blue water grabs are appropriations of irrigation (i.e., blue) water in regions affected by undernourishment and where agricultural production is constrained by blue water availability. We use this framework to provide a global assessment of the likelihood that LSLAs entail blue water grabbing.","wordCount":255,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Jampel Dell’Angelo","Maria Cristina Rulli","Paolo D’Odorico"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.06.033","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-503cb0ce12e2ad17","title":"Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy","abstract":"We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts, but these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth. We build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with mortgage borrowers and lenders and use it to explore the monetary policy implications arising from our regional evidence. We find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts, thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality, whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Martin Beraja","Andreas Fuster","Erik Hurst","Joseph Vavra"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy021","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-504d865567948053","title":"Beyond the headline: How personal exposure to inflation shapes the financial choices of households","abstract":"Using a unique set of bank account-level data from a period of volatile inflation in a small open economy in 2005–11 and interactive fixed effect estimation, we find that individual consumption spending responds to personal inflation exposure beyond the headline rate. Households are exposed to different inflation because they have different expenditure baskets. For each percentage point of higher personal inflation rate, they increase their spending by 1.4%. These responses are consistent with intertemporal substitution when households form their inflation expectations from their personal experience. Increased spending is financed with savings or borrowing, except when households are liquidity-constrained or over-indebted. Extra demand when inflation is already high can make inflation persistent and dependent on its current distribution.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Merike Kukk","Jan Toczynski","Christoph Basten"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103800","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-504fdce37af2bdd1","title":"The one player guessing game: a diagnosis on the relationship between equilibrium play, beliefs, and best responses","abstract":"Experiments involving games have two dimensions of difficulty for subjects in the laboratory. One is understanding the rules and structure of the game and the other is forming beliefs about the behavior of other players. Typically, these two dimensions cannot be disentangled as belief formation crucially depends on the understanding of the game. We present the one-player guessing game, a variation of the two-player guessing game (Grosskopf and Nagel 2008), which turns an otherwise strategic game into an individual decision-making task. The results show that a majority of subjects fail to understand the structure of the game. Moreover, subjects with a better understanding of the structure of the game form more accurate beliefs of other player’s choices, and also better-respond to these beliefs.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Ciril Bosch-Rosa","Thomas Meißner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09642-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5055be0e47456a1c","title":"Does economic policy uncertainty matter for commodity market in China? Evidence from quantile regression","abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China’s agricultural and metal commodity futures returns across quantiles. We address this issue using the panel quantile regression approach, which allows for a more complete analysis of various conditions in the commodity market (i.e. bearish, normal, and bullish markets). Our empirical results reveal that domestic EPU shocks have a significantly negative effect on agricultural futures returns in bearish markets and a significantly positive effect on metal futures returns in bullish markets. The impacts of both domestic and U.S. EPU shocks on commodity markets are heterogeneous across quantiles and are sector specific. Additionally, by isolating positive and negative EPU shocks, the regression and test results indicate an asymmetric response of commodity futures prices in bullish markets. Moreover, our findings indicate that the metal futures market has a higher financialisation level than the agricultural futures market. The findings can be utilized by policymakers and investors.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Huiming Zhu","Rui Huang","Ningli Wang","Liya Hau"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1688243","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5056a3886a872b2c","title":"Grandparental availability for child care and maternal labor force participation: pension reform evidence from Italy","abstract":"In this paper, we exploit pension reform-induced changes in retirement eligibility requirements to assess the role of grandparental childcare availability in the labor force participation of women with children under 15. Our analysis shows that, among the women studied, those whose own mothers are retirement eligible have a 11% higher probability of being in the labor force than those whose mothers are ineligible. The pension eligibility of maternal grandfathers and paternal grandparents, however, has no significant effect on the women’s labor force participation. We also demonstrate that the eligibility of maternal grandmothers mainly captures the effect of their availability for childcare. Hence, pension reforms, by potentially robbing households of an important source of flexible, low-cost childcare, could have unintended negative consequences for the employment rates of women with young children.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Massimiliano Bratti","Tommaso Frattini","Francesco Scervini"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-017-0683-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-507b30e90d875bdb","title":"An intertemporal model of growing awareness","abstract":"This paper presents an intertemporal model of growing awareness. It provides a framework for analyzing problems with long time horizons in the presence of growing awareness and awareness of unawareness. The framework generalizes both the standard event-tree framework and the framework from Karni and Vierø (2017) of awareness of unawareness. Axioms and a representation are provided along with a recursive formulation of intertemporal utility. This allows for tractable and consistent analysis of intertemporal problems with unawareness. To illustrate the relevance of growing awareness for dynamic decision making, the model is applied to a representative agent intertemporal asset pricing problem.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Marie‐Louise Vierø"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105351","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-509073862cb807c0","title":"Flood Fatalities in the United States: The Roles of Socioeconomic Factors and the National Flood Insurance Program","abstract":"Flooding is the most frequent disaster type among all severe weather events in the United States. Over the 20‐year period from 1996 to 2015, a total of 107,743 floods resulted in 1563 fatalities and over $167 billion in damages. Climate models suggest that the risk of major flooding will increase in the coming years. In this article, we provide new analysis of the life‐saving role of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) using county‐level data for the United States over the years 1996–2015. The integrated view of the physical, social, economic, and political elements of disaster vulnerability guides the empirical analysis. Our analysis indicates that people most affected by floods are those who have weaker economic and social bases; lower education levels and poor housing quality increase flood vulnerability. We also find that local government spending on public safety and welfare significantly reduces overall flood vulnerability. Importantly, our estimates present new evidence that ex ante floodplain management and mitigation efforts required for participation in the NFIP have played a vital role in reducing flood‐related fatalities.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Jungmin Lim","Mark Skidmore"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12330","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-50a02e727fd7e915","title":"Emotion and Reason in Political Language","abstract":"This paper studies the use of emotion and reason in political discourse. Adopting computational-linguistics techniques to construct a validated text-based scale, we measure emotionality in six million speeches given in U.S. Congress over the years 1858–2014. Intuitively, emotionality spikes during times of war and is highest in speeches about patriotism. In the time series, emotionality was relatively low and stable in earlier years but increased significantly starting in the late 1970s. Across Congress members, emotionality is higher for Democrats, for women, for ethnic/religious minorities, for the opposition party and for members with ideologically extreme roll-call voting records.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Gloria Gennaro","Elliott Ash"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab104","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-50a1d39cfce91334","title":"Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics","abstract":"What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? Do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using rates of return on assets stretching back to the fourteenth century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with rates of return substantially depressed. The responses are in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings also accord with wage and output responses, using more limited data, and are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce more labor scarcity or more precautionary savings, or both.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Òscar Jordà","Sanjay R. Singh","Alan M. Taylor"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01042","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-50a27484ec7e7b0f","title":"New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation","abstract":"This paper studies consequences of the large exchange rate depreciation occurring when the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union. Sterling plummeted, recording the biggest one-day depreciation of any of the world's four major currencies since Bretton Woods. The prospect of Brexit happening generated sizable differences in how much sterling depreciated against different currencies. Coupled with pre-referendum cross-country trade patterns, this generated variations in exchange rates facing businesses in different industries. The paper offers evidence of a cost shock from the prices of intermediate imports rising by more in higher depreciation industries, but with no revenue offset from exports. Workers were impacted by these increased cost pressures, not in terms of job loss but through relative real wage declines in higher depreciation, larger cost shock industries. This resulted in an aggregate fall in real wage growth of 3 to 3.6% cumulatively over the three years after the referendum.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Rui Ponte Costa","Swati Dhingra","Stephen Machin"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","F","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103993","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-50b1deb63983f794","title":"The hazardous effects of antidumping","abstract":"We investigate the extent to which antidumping actions eliminate trade altogether. Using quarterly 10‐digit HS ‐level export data for products involved in U.S. antidumping cases we find that antidumping actions increase the hazard rate by more than 50%. We find strong evidence of investigation effects with the impact during the initiation and preliminary duty phases considerably larger than once final duties are imposed. There are also important differences with respect to the size of duties with cases with large duties experiencing very large investigation effects. We show the antidumping ( AD )‐affected countries are less likely to return to the market even after the AD order is removed.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Tibor Besedeš","Thomas J. Prusa"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12345","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-50b61eade310d4e1","title":"Strong, bold, and kind: self-control and cooperation in social dilemmas","abstract":"We develop a model that relates self-control to cooperation patterns in social dilemmas, and we test the model in a laboratory public goods experiment. As predicted, we find a robust association between stronger self-control and higher levels of cooperation, and the association is at its strongest when the decision maker’s risk aversion is low and the cooperation levels of others high. We interpret the pattern as evidence for the notion that individuals may experience an impulse to act in self-interest—and that cooperative behavior benefits from self-control. Free-riders differ from other contributor types only in their tendency not to have identified a self-control conflict in the first place.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Martin G. Kocher","Peter Martinsson","Kristian Ove R. Myrseth","Conny Wollbrant"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-015-9475-7","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-50bcc1dba51bd889","title":"Disease and child growth in industrialising Japan: Critical windows and the growth pattern, 1917–39","abstract":"This paper assesses how the disease environment, proxied by infant mortality rates, influenced children's growth in interwar Japan. We use data drawn from government records from 1929 to 1939 which report the mean heights of boys and girls in school at each age (6–18) for each of Japan's 47 prefectures. We focus on two key questions: (1) how important was the disease environment in infancy in shaping the growth pattern of children? and (2) were shocks to child health more salient in the first thousand days of life, often held as a critical window to prevent stunting, or at later ages? We quantify the characteristics of the growth pattern of birth cohorts using the SITAR growth model and then relate the predicted SITAR parameters to infant mortality in the year of birth. In addition, we test for instantaneous effects of morbidity, proxied by infant mortality, on growth at ages 6–11. We find that infant mortality in early life did not have a strong influence on the growth pattern of children, but there were statistically significant and economically meaningful instantaneous effects of infant mortality on child height at ages 6–11 for both boys and girls. This suggests that interventions outside of the thousand-day critical window can be effective and that the secular increase in height in interwar Japan was more strongly influenced by cumulative responses to the health environment across child development rather than simply improvements in early life health.","wordCount":239,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Eric B. Schneider","Kota Ogasawara"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2018.05.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-50bf054c96946653","title":"Large firms and the cyclicality of US labour productivity","abstract":"We present novel stylized facts on the declining cyclicality of labor productivity for large firms. Changes in their output-labor productivity correlations mirror those in aggregate US data. Large firms account for 88% of the aggregate labor productivity-output correlation post-1985. The decline in cyclicality aligns with their increased use of extensive margin adjustments, such as hiring more workers. For a 1% output increase, large firms hire 75 additional workers pre-1985, compared to 90 post-1985. Our findings are relevant to the literature on the role of large firms in US business cycles.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Joshua Brault","Hashmat Khan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103643","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-50c187b23e30cd28","title":"How will renewable energy development goals affect energy poverty in Guatemala?","abstract":"Many countries have taken on ambitious but potentially costly renewable energy development goals to combat climate change. The government of Guatemala has introduced a plan to increase renewable generation capacity, while an estimated 76% of Guatemalans are energy poor. In this paper, we evaluate the trade-offs between alleviating energy poverty and achieving renewable energy goals in Guatemala. We present a framework that combines an electricity cost model with a household expenditure survey to assess the effects that a national renewable energy development goal could have on energy poverty through added electricity expenditures. We find that the development of new renewable electricity generation has potential to significantly increase tariffs for residential electricity consumers across the country, whereby 80% of municipalities could experience more than one-third increase in monthly energy expenditures. More importantly, we find that the distribution of impacts will not be equal everywhere: households in the western, rural part of Guatemala that are already energy stressed will likely experience the greatest cost burdens because natural resource availability is low while overall poverty is already high. In addition, we compare the costs of renewable versus fossil fuel development and find that the least-cost policy in Guatemala includes a mix of both renewable and fossil technologies.","wordCount":204,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Candise L. Henry","Justin S. Baker","Brooke K. Shaw","Andrew J. Kondash","Benjamín Leiva","Edwin Castellanos","Christopher M. Wade","Benjamin Lord","George Van Houtven","Jennifer Hoponick Redmon"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105665","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-50c21f36223d15ea","title":"Foreign exchange intervention for commodity booms and busts","abstract":"While the conventional policy prescription for dealing with commodity price shocks is the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime, a view popularized by Friedman (1953), in practice many emerging economies decide to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In this paper, we evaluate the optimal exchange rate policy response to commodity price shocks in a small open economy model with learning-by-doing (LBD) externalities. We find that the optimal policy response to a commodity boom involves a large and sustained increase in the stock of foreign exchange reserves aimed at stabilizing the real exchange rate and tradable production. Moreover, the optimal policy resembles the actual dynamics of foreign exchange reserves observed in many emerging commodity-exporting economies during recent episodes of commodity booms. We also show that solely relying on monetary policy for dealing with commodity price shocks provides limited macroeconomic stabilization gains, as the policy rate is an ineffective instrument for addressing LBD externalities.","wordCount":154,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Julia Faltermeier","Ruy Lama","Juan Pablo Medina"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.104018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-50cf38a523bf8591","title":"Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence","abstract":"We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Hassan Afrouzi","Saroj Bhattarai","E.Q. Wu"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-50d4e50c40af27f4","title":"Eliciting dishonesty in online experiments: The observed vs. mind cheating game","abstract":"In this paper, I compare two ways of eliciting cheating behavior in online experiments. I present data from two online experiments, one in which participants’ random drawing took place directly on their screens (Observed-Cheating Game) and another in which participants chose a color in their minds and then randomly drew a color from ten boxes with question marks presented on their screens (Mind-Cheating Game). The paper shows that observed online games are more likely to have non-significant treatment differences because the effect of observability is particularly strong. I show that using mind games to generate random draws in online settings solves the most prominent problems for eliciting lying by making the lies unidentifiable at the individual level. The Mind-Cheating Game used in the experiment is inspired by previous mind games and is specifically adapted to be easily implemented in online or field experiments.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Daniel Parra"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102715","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-50f011c590ba9169","title":"Comment on “A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement” [J. Econ. Theory 187 (2020) 105001]","abstract":"In this paper, we study asymptotic expansions for distorted probabilities under ambiguity, revisiting the framework and analysis of Izhakian (2020b). We argue that the first order terms in these expansions need to be corrected and provide alternatives. We also revisit later results in this paper on the separation of ambiguity and ambiguity attitudes. We argue that a crucial lemma is flawed implying that Izhakian's ambiguity measure ℧2 is not an equivalent way of representing the preferences it is supposed to represent.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Ruonan Fu","Bertrand Melenberg","Nikolaus Schweizer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105573","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-50fe5c9a66bf25a4","title":"Firm pay dynamics","abstract":"We study the nature of firm pay dynamics. To this end, we propose a statistical model that extends the seminal framework by Abowd et al. (1999) to allow for idiosyncratically time-varying firm pay policies. We estimate the model using linked employer–employee data for Sweden from 1985 to 2016. By drawing on detailed firm financials data, we show that firms that become more productive and accumulate capital raise pay, whereas firms lower pay as they add workers. A secular increase in firm-year pay dispersion in Sweden since 1985 is accounted for by greater persistence of firm pay among incumbent firms as well as greater dispersion in firm pay among entrant firms, as opposed to more volatile firm pay.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Niklas Engbom","Christian Moser","Jan Sauermann"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.01.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5115d151a4c015cb","title":"Blockchain-Based Settlement for Asset Trading","abstract":"Can securities be settled on a blockchain, and, if so, what are the gains relative to existing settlement systems? The main benefit of a blockchain is faster and more flexible settlement, whereas settlement fails need to be ruled out where participants fork the chain to cancel trading losses. With a proof-of-work protocol, the blockchain needs to restrict settlement speed through block size and time in order to generate transaction fees, which finance costly mining. Despite mining being a deadweight cost, our estimates for the U.S. corporate debt market yield net gains from a blockchain in the range of 1–4 bps.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jonathan Chiu","Thorsten V. Koeppl"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy122","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5119c3d9136dc26f","title":"Quantitative sovereign default models and the European debt crisis","abstract":"A large literature has developed quantitative versions of the Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) model to analyze default episodes on external debt. In this paper, we study whether the same framework can be applied to the analysis of debt crises in which domestic public debt plays a prominent role. We consider a model where a government can issue debt to both domestic and foreign investors, and we derive conditions under which their sum is the relevant state variable for default incentives. We then apply our framework to the European debt crisis. We show that matching the cyclicality of public debt—rather than that of external debt—allows the model to better capture the empirical distribution of interest rate spreads and gives rise to more realistic crises dynamics.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Luigi Bocola","Gideon Bornstein","Alessandro Dovis"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-511a67c86037c45b","title":"The Long-Run Impacts of a Universal Child Care Program","abstract":"Past research documents the persistence of positive impacts of early life interventions on noncognitive skills. We test the symmetry of this finding by studying the persistence of a sizeable negative shock to noncognitive outcomes arising with the introduction of universal child care in Quebec. We find that the negative effects on noncognitive outcomes persisted to school ages, and also that cohorts with increased child care access had worse health, lower life satisfaction, and higher crime rates later in life. Our results reinforce previous evidence of the central role of the early childhood environment for long-run success.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Michael Baker","Jonathan Gruber","Kevin Milligan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170603","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-5130a16b45446d81","title":"Money Talks: The Environmental Impact of China's Green Credit Policy","abstract":"This study examines the impact of China's green credit policy on the environment. In particular, we consider an initiative that requires all banks to base their loan decisions on corporate environmental performance. This is an important issue since it is globally gaining popularity to leverage bank loans as an avenue to enforce corporate environmental responsibility. Moreover, there are only a handful of empirical investigations in relation to the impacts of credit constraint on corporate environmental behaviors and strategies. This research also provides useful insights on how to enhance environmental regulation enforcement, using the Environmental Protection Bureau in partnership with local banks to exert a creditable threat of financial constraint on unfavorable environmental outcomes. Using the synthetic control method and difference‐in‐differences analysis, we find that this policy has significantly motivated firms, particularly those firms with a higher dependence on external financing, to reduce water pollution. We further discover that the policy compels firms to favor pollution prevention at the source instead of end‐of‐pipe treatments, since the policy imposes a long‐term credit constraint on pollution.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Junxiu Sun","Feng Wang","Haitao Yin","Bing Zhang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22137","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-514dc83ea0597dce","title":"Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages: The Role of Spillover Effects","abstract":"This paper examines the role of spillover effects of minimum wages and threat effects of unionization in changes in wage inequality in the United States between 1979 and 2017. A distribution regression framework is introduced to estimate both types of spillover effects. Threat effects double the contribution of deunionization to the increase in male wage inequality. Spillover effects magnify the explanatory power of declining minimum wages to two-thirds of the increase in inequality at the bottom end of the female wage distribution.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Nicole M. Fortin","Thomas Lemieux","Neil Lloyd"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712923","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-515a211f71933616","title":"Evolution of the Merger Guidelines: Is This Fox Too Clever by Half?","abstract":"The 2023 Merger Guidelines make some notable improvements over the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines. They give greater emphasis to the idea that predicting the competitive effects of a proposed merger is inherently difficult and that to block a merger the government need only show a risk that the merger may substantially lessen competition – not that it will do so. They also give greater emphasis to dynamic competition and innovation – especially with regard to acquisitions of potential entrants – and they add useful material on multi-sided platforms. However, the treatment of market definition in the 2023 Merger Guidelines may weaken horizontal merger enforcement by demoting the role of the “hypothetical monopolist test,” which is used to define markets for the purpose of measuring market shares, and by removing extensive material from prior guidelines that explained why market shares measured in narrower markets tend to be more informative than market shares measured in broader markets. The 2023 Merger Guidelines lower the market concentration thresholds that trigger a presumption by the antitrust enforcement agencies that a merger may substantially lessen competition, but the enforcement data suggest that change will have little effect in practice. The 2023 Merger Guidelines also may lead to less effective deterrence of harmful mergers because they are not well targeted at the mergers that are most likely to substantially lessen competition. One cannot prioritize everything.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Carl Shapiro"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09956-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5161f35ecb8fce92","title":"Product Market Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment and Consumer Welfare","abstract":"Cooperation among rival firms raises serious skepticism among economists, policymakers, and legal experts, since it generally hurts consumers. We show that this may not be the case in an open economy with strategic foreign direct investment (FDI). Under Cournot competition, increased cooperation among firms reduces the domestic welfare, but it may benefit the consumers by attracting FDI. Under Bertrand competition with differentiated goods, increased cooperation may increase consumer surplus, and it may increase or decrease the domestic welfare by attracting FDI.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Arijit Mukherjee","Uday Bhanu Sinha"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09925-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-516728757b36e6d8","title":"Experimental and self‐reported measures of risk taking and digit ratio (2d:4d): Evidence from a large, systematic study","abstract":"We systematically investigate the links between the digit ratio (2D:4D)—a biomarker for prenatal testosterone exposure—and two measures of individual risk taking: (i) risk preferences (RP) over lotteries with real monetary incentives and (ii) self‐reported risk attitude (RA). We find that both the right‐hand and the left‐hand digit ratio are significantly associated with RP: Subjects with lower digit ratios tend to choose riskier lotteries. Neither digit ratio, however, is associated with self‐reported RA.","wordCount":72,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Pablo Brañas‐Garza","Matteo M. Galizzi","Jeroen Nieboer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12299","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-516cf8a7085faf5d","title":"Firm‐level investment and export dynamics","abstract":"This article characterizes the complementarity between exporting and investment in physical capital. We argue that new investment allows young exporters to grow faster and survive longer in export markets while reducing their vulnerability to productivity or demand shocks across markets. We structurally estimate our model using detailed firm‐level data. We find that the choice of cost structure has a large impact on model performance and the estimated costs of exporting or investment. Using detailed capital and output tariff rates, we quantify the impact of policy change on aggregate export and investment growth.","wordCount":92,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Youngwoo Rho","Joel Rodrigue"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12156","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-516d6bdbdc362f9f","title":"Active learning with a misspecified prior","abstract":"We study learning and information acquisition by a Bayesian agent whose prior belief is misspecified in the sense that it assigns probability 0 to the true state of the world. At each instant, the agent takes an action and observes the corresponding payoff, which is the sum of a fixed but unknown function of the action and an additive error term. We provide a complete characterization of asymptotic actions and beliefs when the agent's subjective state space is a doubleton. A simple example with three actions shows that in a misspecified environment a myopic agent's beliefs converge while a sufficiently patient agent's beliefs do not. This illustrates a novel interaction between misspecification and the agent's subjective discount rate.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Drew Fudenberg","Gleb Romanyuk","Philipp Strack"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2480","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-517147624f524004","title":"Dynamic Certification and Reputation for Quality","abstract":"We study firm's incentives to build and maintain reputation for quality, when quality is persistent and can be certified at a cost. We characterize all reputation-dependent MPEs. They vary in frequency of certification and payoffs. Low payoffs arise in equilibria because of over-certification traps. We contrast the MPEs with the highest payoff equilibria. Industry certification standards can help firms coordinate on such good equilibria. The optimal equilibria allow firms to maintain high quality forever, once it is reached for the first time. They are either lenient or harsh, endowing firms with multiple or one chance to improve and certify quality.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Iván Marinovic","Andrzej Skrzypacz","Felipe Varas"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160282","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5177d97763129d5a","title":"Taming the Factor Zoo: A Test of New Factors","abstract":"We propose a model selection method to systematically evaluate the contribution to asset pricing of any new factor, above and beyond what a high‐dimensional set of existing factors explains. Our methodology accounts for model selection mistakes that produce a bias due to omitted variables, unlike standard approaches that assume perfect variable selection. We apply our procedure to a set of factors recently discovered in the literature. While most of these new factors are shown to be redundant relative to the existing factors, a few have statistically significant explanatory power beyond the hundreds of factors proposed in the past.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Guanhao Feng","Stefano Giglio","Dacheng Xiu"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12883","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-517ba61ac8b31bd1","title":"The price effects of liquidity shocks: A study of the SEC’s tick size experiment","abstract":"Do stock prices of publicly listed companies respond to changes in transaction costs? Using the SEC’s pilot program that increased the tick size for approximately 1,200 randomly chosen stocks, we find a stock price decrease between 1.75% and 3.2% for small spread stocks affected by the larger tick size relative to a control group. We find that the increase in the present value of transaction costs accounts for a small percentage of the price decrease. We study channels of price variation due to changes in expected returns: information risk, investor horizon, and liquidity risk. The evidence suggests that trading frictions affect the cost of capital.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Rui Albuquerque","Shiyun Song","Chen Yao"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.07.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-51852e230d161bec","title":"Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party","abstract":"Using newly collected data on association density in 229 towns and cities in interwar Germany, we show that denser social networks were associated with faster entry into the Nazi Party. The effect is large: one standard deviation higher association density is associated with at least 15 percent faster Nazi Party entry. Party membership, in turn, predicts electoral success. Social networks thus aided the rise of the Nazis that destroyed Germany’s first democracy. The effects of social capital depended on the political context: in federal states with more stable governments, higher association density was not correlated with faster Nazi Party entry.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Shanker Satyanath","Nico Voigtländer","Hans‐Joachim Voth"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690949","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-51950429c131ae0b","title":"How do humans respond to large realized losses?","abstract":"Large realized losses lead people to behave more cautiously in later periods. In a controlled field setting, in which the majority of people in our sample lose more than £90,000, we examine how human beings respond to major financial losses. University ethics boards would not allow this kind of huge-loss phenomenon to be studied with normal social-science experiments. Yet the scientific and practical issues at stake are unusually important ones. In the analyzed gameshow setting, individuals are handed £100,000 in cash. They then have to make risky decisions. Facing a sequence of seven questions, individuals are required to distribute their cash endowment over a set of possible answers. Participants lose any cash placed on a wrong answer. In a sample of British participants, we find that people become increasingly more cautious as they lose more of their cash endowment. A realized prior loss of £75,000 or more increases the propensity to fully diversify by 50 percentage points compared to a prior loss of £25,000. We find a similar cautious response in a smaller sample of US participants when the stakes are raised to $1 million US dollars. Our study appears to be the first to be able to calculate systematically how human beings react to large and unrecoverable financial losses.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Redzo Mujcic","Nattavudh Powdthavee"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102805","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-51dcba12e317e083","title":"“Mechanization Takes Command?”: Powered Machinery and Production Times in Late Nineteenth-Century American Manufacturing","abstract":"During the nineteenth century, U.S. manufacturers shifted away from the “hand labor” mode of production, characteristic of artisan shops, to “machine labor,” which was increasingly concentrated in steam-powered factories. This transition fundamentally changed production tasks, jobs, and job requirements. This paper uses digitized data on these two production modes from an 1899 U.S. Commissioner of Labor report to estimate the frequency and impact of the use of inanimate power on production operation times. About half of production operations were mechanized; the use of inanimate power raised productivity, accounting for about one-quarter to one-third of the overall productivity advantage of machine labor. However, additional factors, such as the increased division of labor and adoption of high-volume production, also played quantitatively important roles in raising productivity in machine production versus by hand.","wordCount":130,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Jeremy Atack","Robert A. Margo","Paul W. Rhode"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000146","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-51e0fba8311f5f97","title":"Planning for green infrastructure: The spatial effects of parks, forests, and fields on Helsinki's apartment prices","abstract":"As the importance of urban green spaces is increasingly recognised, so does the need for their systematic placement in a broader array of socioeconomic objectives. From an urban planning and economics perspective, this represents a spatial task: if more land is allocated to various types of green, how do the economic effects propagate throughout urban space? This paper focuses on the spatial marginal effects of forests, parks, and fields and estimates spatial hedonic models on a sample of apartment transactions in Helsinki, Finland. The results indicate that the capitalization of urban green in apartment prices depends on the type of green, but also interacts with distance to the city centre. Additionally, the effects contain variable pure and spatial spillover impacts, also conditional on type and location, the separation of which highlights aspects not commonly accounted for. The planning of green infrastructure will therefore benefit from parameterizing interventions according to location, green type, and character of spatial impacts.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Athanasios Votsis"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.09.029","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-51ed952392cbe54e","title":"Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad","abstract":"The increasing range and quality of China's exports is a major development internationally with potentially far‐reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct labour market effects of imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings, based on matched employer–employee data of Portugal covering the period 1991–2008, indicate that workers’ earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China's competition, but only through the indirect ‘market‐stealing’ channel. In contrast to earlier evidence, the direct effects of Chinese imports are mostly non‐significant. The results are robust to a number of checks and also highlight particular groups more affected by indirect competition, including women, older and less educated workers, and workers in larger, older and domestic firms.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Sónia Cabral","Pedro S. Martins","João Pereira dos Santos","Mariana Tavares"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12355","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-51fdefedf8043aa6","title":"The effects of legal representation on tenant outcomes in housing court: Evidence from New York City’s Universal Access program","abstract":"Housing is one of the areas where it may be most critical for poor people to have access to legal representation in civil cases. We use the roll out of New York City’s Universal Access to Counsel program (UA) to assess the effects of legal representation on tenant outcomes, using detailed address-level housing court data from 2016 to 2019. The program offers free legal representation in housing court to tenants with income at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty guideline. We find that tenants who gain lawyers are less likely to be subject to possessory judgments, face smaller monetary judgments, are less likely to have eviction warrants issued against them, and are less likely to be evicted. Lawyers have larger effects for tenants at higher risk of possessory judgment. Our results support the idea that legal representation in civil procedures can have important positive impacts on the lives of poor people.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Mike Cassidy","Janet Currie"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104844","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-522003834ced8796","title":"Market Impacts of a Nuclear Power Plant Closure","abstract":"Falling revenues and rising costs have put US nuclear plants in financial trouble, and some threaten to close. To understand the potential private and social consequences, we examine the abrupt closure of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) in 2012. Using a novel econometric approach, we show that the lost generation from SONGS was met largely by increased in-state natural gas generation. In the twelve months following the closure, natural gas generation costs increased by $350 million. The closure also created binding transmission constraints, causing short-run inefficiencies and potentially making it more profitable for certain plants to act noncompetitively.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Lucas W. Davis","Catherine Hausman"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140473","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5223a8bd732fab0a","title":"The Cost of Favoritism in Public Procurement","abstract":"Are political connections in public procurement harmful or efficiency gaining for the public sector, and what are the costs of favoritism toward politically connected firms? Exploiting detailed data on firm representatives’ political affiliations in the Czech Republic, we find that favoritism toward politically connected firms increases the price of procurement contracts by 6 percent of the estimated costs, while no gains in terms of quality are generated. Interestingly, these adverse effects of political connections are mitigated by additional oversight from a higher level of the government because they are cofunded by the European Union. On the basis of our estimates, total procurement expenditures increased by .36 percent owing to favoritism.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Bruno Baránek","Vítězslav Titl"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/727793","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-523c95bb1813b3bb","title":"Unrealistic Expectations and Misguided Learning","abstract":"We explore the learning process and behavior of an individual with unrealistically high expectations (overconfidence) when outcomes also depend on an external fundamental that affects the optimal action. Moving beyond existing results in the literature, we show that the agent's beliefs regarding the fundamental converge under weak conditions. Furthermore, we identify a broad class of situations in which “learning” about the fundamental is self‐defeating: it leads the individual systematically away from the correct belief and toward lower performance. Due to his overconfidence, the agent—even if initially correct—becomes too pessimistic about the fundamental. As he adjusts his behavior in response, he lowers outcomes and hence becomes even more pessimistic about the fundamental, perpetuating the misdirected learning. The greater is the loss from choosing a suboptimal action, the further the agent's action ends up from optimal. We partially characterize environments in which self‐defeating learning occurs, and show that the decisionmaker learns to take the optimal action if, and in a sense only if, a specific non‐identifiability condition is satisfied. In contrast to an overconfident agent, an underconfident agent's misdirected learning is self‐limiting and therefore not very harmful. We argue that the decision situations in question are common in economic settings, including delegation, organizational, effort, and public‐policy choices.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Paul Heidhues","Botond Kőszegi","Philipp Strack"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14084","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-52437ceaa83c2602","title":"The relationship between climate risk, climate policy uncertainty, and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from the US","abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between climate risk and climate policy uncertainty, and CO2 emissions in the US over the 2000–2022 period using a structural Factor- Augmented Vector AutoRegression (FAVAR) model with a two-step principal component analysis based on monthly observations. We employ a very recent measure to proxy for uncertainty regarding climate policy based on the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPU) of Gavriilidis (2021), while Climate Risk is proxied by financial cost of natural disasters and number of deaths. We use different variables for CO2 emissions, based on total and sectoral emission (commercial, electric power, residential sector, transportation, and industrial sector). The results indicate that a significant percentage of the variance of CO2 emissions in the US, is explained by Natural Disasters Cost, which also seem to account for a significant percentage of the US Total Renewable Energy Consumption variance. Shocks to disaster costs seem to decrease all type of emissions significantly and also increase renewable energy use significantly. Natural disasters increase political disagreement among U.S. politicians, as well as, the climate policy uncertainty, highlighting the need for efficient policymaking and regulations. In further results, we find that an increase in Partisan Conflict decreases emissions and explains a significant amount of renewable energy variance.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Khaled Guesmi","Panagiota Makrychoriti","Spyros I. Spyrou"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.06.015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5244b043c74d7dfc","title":"Impact of minimum wage increase on gender wage gap: Case of Poland","abstract":"This paper aims at assessing the effect of significant increase in the minimum wage observed in Poland in 2008–2009 on gender wage gap. To check the potentially differentiated effects throughout wage distribution authors analyse the impact of minimum wage increase separately for different age and educational groups. Innovative methodological approach which combines the non-parametric approach of DiNardo et al. (1996) with Oaxaca (1973) – Blinder (1973) decomposition is proposed. The results indicate that the significant decrease in gender wage gaps observed among younger workers in Poland in 2006–2010 could be attributed to an increase in the minimum wage level. The effects of minimum wage increases were negligible for the middle-aged workers. Changes in gender wage gaps among educational groups were much smaller. The results confirm that minimum wage policy could be an appropriate tool for decreasing the existing differentials in pay between men and women, however potential disemployment effects should be considered.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Aleksandra Majchrowska","Paweł Strawiński"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.021","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5245f1010eb6827b","title":"Investment, Tobin's Q, and Cash Flow Across Time and Frequencies","abstract":"The investment literature has long acknowledged the time‐ and frequency‐varying dynamics of the relationship between investment, Tobin's Q and cash flow. In this paper, we use continuous wavelet tools to estimate and assess the relationship between these variables simultaneously at different frequencies and over time. We find that (i) Q and cash flow are complementary sources of information for investment, the former being more important for firms’ investment decisions in the medium‐to‐long run and the latter at business cycles frequencies; and (ii) investment‐Q sensitivity declines over time at all frequencies, while investment–cash flow sensitivity declines at business cycles frequencies but remains largely stable over the medium‐to‐long run.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Fabio Verona"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12321","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5264c804a0928532","title":"The psychometric and empirical properties of measures of risk preferences","abstract":"We examine the psychometric and empirical properties of some commonly used survey-based measures of risk preferences in a population-based sample of 11,000 twins. Using a model that provides a general framework for making inferences about the component of measured risk attitudes that is not due to measurement error, we show that measurement-error adjustment leads to substantially larger estimates of the predictive power of risk attitudes, of the size of the gender gap, and of the magnitude of the sibling correlation. Risk attitudes are predictive of investment decisions, entrepreneurship, and drinking and smoking behaviors; are robustly associated with cognitive ability and personality; and our estimates are often larger than those in the literature. Our results highlight the importance of adjusting for measurement error across a wide range of empirical settings.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Jonathan Beauchamp","David Cesarini","Magnus Johannesson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9261-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5264cfe8e5242640","title":"Rational bubbles and middlemen","abstract":"This paper develops a model of rational bubbles where trade of an asset takes place through a chain of middlemen. We show that there exists a unique and robust equilibrium, and a bubble can occur due to information frictions in bilateral and decentralized markets. Under reasonable assumptions, the equilibrium price is increasing and accelerating during bubbles although the fundamental value is constant over time. Bubbles may be detrimental to the economy, but any announcement from the central bank has no effect on welfare with risk neutral agents. Middlemen are the source of financial fragility.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Yu Awaya","Kohei Iwasaki","Makoto Watanabe"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4975","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-526c0e6183a6e399","title":"Can we price beauty? Aesthetics and digital art markets","abstract":"What is the relation between the aesthetic value of art and its market price? We address this question in the context of digital art markets by employing data from the popular CryptoPunks NFT art collection. We quantify the visual attractiveness of NFTs using four aesthetic measures that are associated with emotional effects in the cultural economics literature. Using a hedonic pricing model, we identify aesthetics as a driver of prices in digital art markets. Our results indicate that investors prefer NFTs with higher levels of colorfulness and texture complexity and lower levels of saturation and brightness.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Sarah Alsultan","Apostolos Kourtis","Raphael N. Markellos"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111572","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-52728e69584a30d5","title":"Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis","abstract":"We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the subnational level in Africa over 1997 to 2011 using a new gridded data set. We construct an original measure of agriculture-relevant weather shocks exploiting within-year variation in weather and in crop growing season and spatial variation in crop cover. Temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict are addressed through spatial econometric techniques. Negative shocks occurring during the growing season of local crops affect conflict incidence persistently, and local conflict spills over to neighboring cells. We use our estimates to trace the dynamic response to shocks and predict how future warming may affect violence.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Mariaflavia Harari","Eliana La Ferrara"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00730","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5272f137d9a38be3","title":"Patent rights, innovation, and firm exit","abstract":"We study the causal impact of patent invalidation on subsequent innovation and exit by patent holders. The analysis uses patent litigation data from the US Federal Circuit Court and exploits random allocation of judges to control for endogeneity of the decision. Invalidation causes patent holders to reduce patenting over a five‐year window by 50% on average, but the effect is heterogeneous. The impact is large for small‐ and medium‐sized firms, particularly where they face many large competitors, and for patents central to their research portfolio. We find no significant effect for large firms. Invalidation also increases exit from patenting by small firms.","wordCount":102,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Alberto Galasso","Mark Schankerman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12219","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-52773b4f4b86a752","title":"Financial profitability of diversified farming systems: A global meta-analysis","abstract":"Diversified farming systems are promoted as a pathway to more sustainable agricultural production. Yet widescale adoption may be slow because of uncertainty about the viability of farmer livelihoods on diversified farms and entrenched perceptions that monocultures are key to making farming profitable. Here, a global meta-analysis of 3192 effect sizes from 119 peer-reviewed articles provides evidence that diversified farming systems are at least as profitable as simplified farming systems. Our study showed that, on average, total costs, gross income and profits (net income, or gross margin) were higher in diversified systems relative to simplified ones, while the benefit-cost ratio was equivalent. These results held in developed and developing countries and across geographic regions. From a subset of 43 articles reporting labour inputs, we found that labour costs increased in diversified farming systems, but so did gross incomes leading to farm profits equivalent to those in simplified systems and dispelling myths that higher labour requirements undermine the viability of diversification. Our global meta-analysis provides compelling evidence that diversified farming systems are not only viable but actually economically preferable to simplified systems in the wide range of contexts represented in this study. Policies, markets, investments, and value chains need to align with this evidence and promote diversified farming systems for the benefit of farmers and rural economies.","wordCount":215,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Andrea C. Sánchez","Hannah Kamau","Francesca Grazioli","Sarah K. Jones"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107595","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-527ae1ad9f4da811","title":"Busting the “Princelings”: The Campaign Against Corruption in China’s Primary Land Market","abstract":"Using data on over a million land transactions during 2004-2016 where local governments are the sole seller, we find that firms linked to members of China's supreme political elites-the Politburo-obtained a price discount ranging from 55.4% to 59.9% compared with those without the same connections. These firms also purchased slightly more land. In return, the provincial party secretaries who provided the discount to these \"princeling\" firms are 23.4% more likely to be promoted to positions of national leadership. To curb corruption, President Xi Jinping stepped up investigations and strengthened personnel control at the province level. Using a spatially matched sample (e.g., within a 500-meter radius), we find a reduction in corruption of between 42.6% and 31.5% in the provinces either targeted by the central inspection teams or whose party secretary was replaced by one appointed by Xi. Accordingly, this crackdown on corruption has also significantly reduced the promotional prospects of those local officials who rely on supplying a discount to get ahead.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Ting Chen","James Kai‐sing Kung"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-527aed4b83d48e78","title":"Measuring the financial sustainability and its influential factors in local governments","abstract":"The economic crisis has led international organizations and previous research to point out the need for measuring and controlling financial sustainability in governments. Based on the main international pronouncements, this article seeks to contribute to the measurement and management of the financial sustainability, analysing the income statement evolution and identifying its influential factors. An empirical study of Spanish municipalities is then undertaken to test the relationship between the measure of the financial sustainability and three dimensions proposed by International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) (revenues, debt and services). Our findings indicate that the income statement is a good approach for the financial sustainability assessment, because it reveals relevant information about its three dimensions, allowing to identify the specific factors which could provoke sustainability problems on public services.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Andrés Navarro Galera","Manuel Pedro Rodríguez Bolívar","Laura Alcaide Muñoz","María Deseada López-Subires"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1148260","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5293eb0d50b9514b","title":"Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level","abstract":"We investigate the effect of the refugee inflow between 2014 and 2017 on the electoral support for far-right parties in the 2017 German federal election. Leveraging unique, fine-grained data, we differentiate between the impact of refugee inflow at two distinct geographic scales: the immediate neighborhood (1km x 1km) and the county level. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we employ past settlement patterns as instrumental variables. Our results reveal noteworthy variations across geographic scales and regions. We find that refugee inflows lead to an increase in far-right vote shares at the county level, while we observe a negative but statistically insignificant effect at the grid cell level. This negative neighborhood effect attains statistical significance in West Germany, particularly in urban counties, aligning with the contact hypothesis. We find no significant effect in rural areas, and a positive impact of the inflow rate at the county level in West Germany, suggesting a contrasting effect beyond the immediate local vicinity. Despite the fact that support for far-right parties is most pronounced in East Germany, our analysis does not yield robust evidence of a statistically significant relationship in this region.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Melinda Fremerey","Lukas Hörnig","Sandra Schaffner"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102467","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-529d0a1abddfc3b8","title":"Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade","abstract":"Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from US manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for most of the emissions reductions.","wordCount":105,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Joseph Shapiro","Reed Walker"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20151272","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-52a6d43eb0a83f93","title":"Do Leaders Affect Ethical Conduct?","abstract":"We study whether leaders influence the unethical conduct of followers. To avoid selection issues present in natural environments, we use an experiment in which we create simple laboratory firms and assign leadership roles at random. In our first experiment, firms engage in competition and unethical behavior enhances firm earnings but produces a negative externality for all firms. We vary, by treatment, two instruments through which leaders can influence follower conduct-prominent statements to the group and the allocation of monetary incentives. We find that leaders influence the ethical conduct of followers both through their statements and through the use of incentives. Moreover, leaders who are likely to have acted dishonestly in a preliminary stage of the experiment are more likely to employ mechanisms to encourage dishonesty among followers. As a result, firms randomly assigned one of these unethical leaders are more likely to engage in misreporting. A second experiment finds that the above relationships are present, though weaker, when firms do not engage in direct competition.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Giovanna D’Adda","Donja Darai","Nicola Pavanini","Roberto A. Weber"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw027","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-52abe235dbd64de0","title":"Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding","abstract":"Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.","wordCount":106,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Klaus Desmet","Robert E. Kopp","Scott Kulp","Dávid Krisztián Nagy","Michael Oppenheimer","Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg","Benjamin Strauss"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180366","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-52b47ab8ff2e3cc1","title":"Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach","abstract":"We document that consumption growth rates are far from i.i.d. and have a highly persistent component. First, we estimate univariate and multivariate models of cash‐flow (consumption, output, dividends) growth that feature measurement errors, time‐varying volatilities, and mixed‐frequency observations. Monthly consumption data are important for identifying the stochastic volatility process; yet the data are contaminated, which makes the inclusion of measurement errors essential for identifying the predictable component. Second, we develop a novel state‐space model for cash flows and asset prices that imposes the pricing restrictions of a representative‐agent endowment economy with recursive preferences. To estimate this model, we use a particle MCMC approach that exploits the conditional linear structure of the approximate equilibrium. Once asset return data are included in the estimation, we find even stronger evidence for the persistent component and are able to identify three volatility processes: the one for the predictable cash‐flow component is crucial for asset pricing, whereas the other two are important for tracking the data. Our model generates asset prices that are largely consistent with the data in terms of sample moments and predictability features. The state‐space approach allows us to track over time the evolution of the predictable component, the volatility processes, the decomposition of the equity premium into risk factors, and the variance decomposition of asset prices.","wordCount":215,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Frank Schorfheide","Dongho Song","Amir Yaron"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14308","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-52c83461f8703090","title":"The Secure Boston Mechanism: theory and experiments","abstract":"This paper introduces a new matching mechanism that is a hybrid of the two most common mechanisms in school choice, the Boston Mechanism (BM) and the Deferred Acceptance algorithm (DA). BM is the most commonly used mechanism in the field, but it is neither strategyproof nor fair. DA is the mechanism that is typically favored by economists, but it is not Pareto efficient. The new mechanism, the Secure Boston Mechanism (sBM), is an intuitive modification of BM that secures any school a student was initially guaranteed but otherwise prioritizes a student at a school based upon how she ranks it. Relative to BM, theoretical results suggest that sBM is an improvement in terms of strategyproofness and fairness. We present experimental evidence using a novel experimental design that confirms that sBM significantly increases truth-telling and fairness. Relative to DA, theoretical results suggest that sBM can be a Pareto improvement in equilibrium but the efficiency comparison of sBM and DA is theoretically ambiguous. We present simulation evidence that suggests that sBM often does Pareto dominate DA when DA is inefficient, while sBM and DA very often overlap when DA is efficient. Overall, our results strongly support the use of sBM over BM and suggest that sBM should be considered as a viable alternative to DA.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Umut Dur","Robert G. Hammond","Thayer Morrill"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9594-z","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-52ceeae1661acf0a","title":"Immigrants from more tolerant cultures integrate deeper into destination countries","abstract":"We highlight a new factor behind integration: tolerance in the immigrants’ background culture. We hypothesize that it is easier to partake of economic, civic-political and social life in a new country for a person stemming from a culture that embodies tolerance towards people who are different. We test this by applying the epidemiological method, using a tolerance index based on two indicators from the World Values Survey – the share that thinks it important to teach children tolerance and the share that considers homosexuality justified – as our main independent variable. Our outcomes are indices of individual-level economic, civic-political and cultural integration outcomes for immigrants of the second generation with data from the European Social Survey. The results indicate that tolerance in the background culture is a robust predictor of integration among children of immigrants in European societies.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Niclas Berggren","Martin Ljunge","Thérèse Nilsson"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-52d44d1745be8be3","title":"Measuring Pandemic and Lockdown Impacts on Wellbeing","abstract":"With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, New Zealand's official statistical agency (Stats NZ) moved quickly to supplement the quarterly Household Labour Force Survey with wellbeing measures from the General Social Survey. The first supplement (June 2020) began toward the end of a restrictive national lockdown. Subsequent quarterly surveys continued through a second lockdown for the Auckland region, enabling tests of regional lockdown impacts. Survey measures include questions on life satisfaction, health, income adequacy, social capital (trust), and loneliness. Published aggregated data indicate that life satisfaction, social capital, health, and financial wellbeing were each higher through the pandemic (in 2020) than prior to it, including for disadvantaged groups, but loneliness rose. Analysis of the individual-level data, confined to the within-pandemic period, however indicates that more restrictive lockdowns were associated both with reduced life satisfaction and greater loneliness, with differing impacts according to labor market and household status.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Arthur Grimes"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12585","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-52da3c545a648218","title":"Mothers at work: How mandating a short maternity leave affects work and fertility","abstract":"Switzerland mandated a 14-week paid maternity leave in 2005 when many firms already offered a similar benefit. While the mandate had only small and temporary effects on labor market outcomes of first-time mothers, it raised the share of those having a second child by three percentage points. Women employed in firms with prior paid leave sharply increased their subsequent fertility. In contrast, women employed in other firms did not change their fertility behaviour, but instead saw a persistent increase in their earnings after birth. This pattern of results suggests that firms with pre-mandate leave passed on (some of) their resulting cost-savings to their employees – “trickle down effects” – by making their maternity leave more generous than mandated, hiring temporary replacement workers and/or supporting mothers’ return to work in other ways.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Esther Mirjam Girsberger","Lena Hassani-Nezhad","Kalaivani Karunanethy","Rafael Lalive"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102364","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-52ebac9e3754330c","title":"COVID-19 and pro-sociality: How do donors respond to local pandemic severity, increased salience, and media coverage?","abstract":"Has the COVID-19 pandemic affected pro-sociality among individuals? After the onset of the pandemic, many charitable appeals were updated to include a reference to COVID-19. Did donors increase their giving in response to such changes? In order to answer these questions, we conducted a real-donation online experiment with more than 4200 participants from 149 local areas in England and over 21 weeks. First, we varied the fundraising appeal to either include or exclude a reference to COVID-19. We found that including the reference to COVID-19 in the appeal increased donations. Second, in a natural experiment-like approach, we studied how the relative local severity of the pandemic and media coverage about local COVID-19 severity affected giving in our experiment. We found that both higher local severity and more related articles increased giving of participants in the respective areas. This holds for different specifications, including specifications with location fixed effects, time fixed effects, a broad set of individual characteristics to account for a potentially changing composition of the sample over time and to account for health- and work-related experiences with and expectations regarding the pandemic. While negative experiences with COVID-19 correlate negatively with giving, both approaches led us to conclude that the pure effect of increased salience of the pandemic on pro-sociality is positive. Despite the shift in public attention toward the domestic fight against the pandemic and away from developing countries' challenges, we found that preferences did not shift toward giving more to a national project and less to developing countries. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10683-022-09753-y.","wordCount":261,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Maja Adena","Julian Harke"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-022-09753-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-52ec653bfbddb30b","title":"Capital-labor substitution, structural change, and growth","abstract":"There is growing interest in multisector models that combine aggregate balanced growth, consistent with the well known Kaldor facts, with systematic changes in the sectoral allocation of resources, consistent with the Kuznets facts. Although variations in the income elasticity of demand across goods play an important role in initial approaches, recent models stress the role of supply-side factors in this process of structural change, in particular sector-specific technical change and sectoral differences in factor proportions. We explore a general framework that features an additional supply-side mechanism and also encompasses these two known mechanisms. Our model shows that sectoral differences in the degree of capital–labor substitutability—a new mechanism—are a driving force for structural change. When the flexibility to combine capital and labor differs across sectors, a factor rebalancing effect is operative. It tends to make production in the more flexible sector more intensive in the input that becomes more abundant. As a result, growth rates of sectoral capital–labor ratios can differ and, if this effect dominates, shares of each factor used in a given sector can move in different directions. We identify conditions under which this occurs and analyze the dynamics of such a case. We also provide some suggestive evidence consistent with this new mechanism. A quantitative analysis suggests that this channel was an important contributor to structural change out of agriculture in the United States.","wordCount":226,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Francisco Alvarez‐Cuadrado","Ngo Van Long","Markus Poschke"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2106","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-52ffffb9824e13f6","title":"Income Opportunities and Sea Piracy in Indonesia: Evidence from Satellite Data","abstract":"The effect of climatic variation on conflict and crime is well established, but less is known about the mechanism through which this effect operates. This study contributes to the literature by exploiting a new source of exogenous variation in climate to study the effect of fishermen's income opportunities on sea piracy. Using satellite data to construct a monthly measure of local fishing conditions it is found that better income opportunities reduce piracy. A wide range of approaches are employed to ensure that these effects are driven by income opportunities rather than other mechanisms through which climate could affect piracy.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Sebastian Axbard"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140404","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-530119aca828a7cd","title":"Simple contracts with adverse selection and moral hazard","abstract":"We study a principal–agent model with moral hazard and adverse selection. Risk‐neutral agents with limited liability have arbitrary private information about the distribution of outputs and the cost of effort. We show that under a multiplicative separability condition, the optimal mechanism offers a single contract. This condition holds, for example, when output is binary. If the principal's payoff must also satisfy free disposal and the distribution of outputs has the monotone likelihood ratio property, the mechanism offers a single debt contract. Our results generalize if the output distribution is “close” to multiplicatively separable. Our model suggests that offering a single contract may be optimal in environments with adverse selection and moral hazard when agents are risk‐neutral and have limited liability.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Daniel Gottlieb","Humberto Moreira"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2992","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-530a6789f3fcede6","title":"Gender and lawmaking in times of quotas","abstract":"This article studies gender differences in lawmaking in a context of gender quotas. I use two empirical strategies to randomize the gender of legislators and text analysis to identify the topics of the legislation in the French Parliament from 2001 to 2017. Across the two Houses, I find consistent evidence that female legislators work on different topics than men. I show that they are most active on women’s issues while men seem more involved in military issues. I provide evidence that these differences partly stem from legislators’ individual interest. From a public policy perspective, the results suggest that gender quotas are likely to lead to a shift in lawmaking and a greater prevalence of women’s issues in Parliament.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Quentin Lippmann"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104610","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-531338408e3b00b9","title":"Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxes: Evidence from Sweden","abstract":"This paper provides an empirical assessment of an annual wealth tax. Using Swedish administrative data, I estimate net-of-tax-rate elasticities of taxable wealth in the range [0.09, 0.27]. Cross-checking self-reported assets against asset data unavailable to the tax agency reveals that around a third of the elasticity estimates are due to underreporting of asset values. Difference-in-difference designs further suggest that the responses reflect evasion and avoidance rather than changes in saving.","wordCount":70,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["David Seim"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150290","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-531764cd8e5cc0b5","title":"Real effects of workers’ financial distress: Evidence from teacher spillovers","abstract":"This paper studies the effects of financial distress on workers’ productivity, using detailed data from the public school system in Texas. We show that the student passing rate in the median-sized grade decreases by 1.2 percentage points following a declaration of bankruptcy by one teacher in the grade. The effect of financial distress increases with the complexity of the task. Overall, our results suggest a potential feedback effect of worker financial distress on local economic conditions and thus contribute to the understanding of the propagation, and potential amplification, of shocks through a local economy.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Gonzalo Maturana","Jordan Nickerson"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.09.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5319c2e53ff75424","title":"An Alternative Approach to Estimating Foreclosure and Short Sale Discounts","abstract":"Current research documents astonishingly large price discounts for foreclosures and short sales. However, such outsized estimates may largely be due to omitted variables bias. We propose an innovative methodology relying on appraisers’ ability to match properties along both observable and unobservable attributes when performing appraisals. Our empirical approach, which relies on the use of appraisal fixed effects, produces foreclosure and short sale discounts of approximately 5% after controlling for a rich set of characteristics, including quality and condition, attributable mostly to the stigma associated with distress itself. We show that these lower estimates are not due to appraisers selecting high-price distressed properties as comps and are robust across a wide variety of subsamples and under alternative estimation methods.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["James Conklin","N. Edward Coulson","Moussa Diop","Nuno Mota"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103546","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-531ffb183b068baf","title":"Firm markups and the economic value of innovation","abstract":"We examine the relationship between firms' markups and the economic value of their innovation, including both the private value captured by the innovating firm and the knowledge spillovers that benefit other firms. Using a sample of over 14,500 EU firms and 2,400 US firms granted patents between 2005 and 2014, we find that innovation by high-markup firms is more valuable privately and also creates more external value. These associations are robust to controlling for the stock of past innovation and to estimating innovation value in various ways.","wordCount":87,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Ralf Martin","Jenniffer Solórzano Mosquera","Catherine Thomas","Dennis Verhoeven"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103186","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5334274f6cf35176","title":"Does Merger Simulation Work? Evidence from the Swedish Analgesics Market","abstract":"We analyze a large merger in the Swedish market for analgesics (painkillers). The merging firms raised prices by 40 percent, and some outsiders raised prices by more than 10 percent. We confront these changes with predictions from a merger simulation model. With basic supply side assumptions, the models correctly or moderately underpredict the merging firms' price increase. However, they predict a larger price increase for the smaller firm, which was not the case in practice, and they underpredict the outsiders' responses. We consider several supply side explanations: a plausible cost increase after the merger and the possibility of partial collusion.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jonas Björnerstedt","Frank Verboven"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20130034","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-533898a379167253","title":"Why Transform<i>Y</i>? The Pitfalls of Transformed Regressions with a Mass at Zero","abstract":"Applied economists often transform a dependent variable that is non‐negative and skewed with the natural log transformation, the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation, or power function. We show that these transformations separate the zeros from the positives such that the estimated parameters are related to those from a scaled linear probability model. The retransformed marginal effects and elasticities are sensitive to changes in a shape parameter, ranging in magnitude between those of an untransformed least squares regression and those of a scaled linear probability model. Instead of transforming the dependent variable with non‐negative outcomes that includes zeros, we recommend using a non‐transformed dependent variable, such as a two‐part model, untransformed linear regression, or Poisson.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["John Mullahy","Edward C. Norton"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12583","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-533b9ac5d280728e","title":"Energy consumption and economic growth in the United States","abstract":"We study the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in the USA using a multivariate time-varying model [1973Q1--2014Q1]. We show that the combination of disaggregation into specific fuels and time variation gives more nuanced results than the alternatives for the USA. Specifically, we find that the Granger causal relationship between total energy and real US GDP is bi-directional through much of the 1990s, but unidirectional running from real US GDP to energy consumption in the 2000s. As for each fuel, similar patterns of change were observed in the causal relationship between coal consumption and real US GDP. Oil consumption largely shows a bi-directional relationship between consumption and US GDP, especially after 2009. And natural gas consumption shows a brief period in the early-to-mid 2000s where US GDP predicts energy consumption, but primarily shows that natural gas consumption and economic growth are independent.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Vipin Arora","Shuping Shi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1145347","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5347fd106bd004b2","title":"Inflation, Fiscal Policy, and Inequality: The Impact of the Post‐Pandemic Price Surge and Fiscal Measures on European Households","abstract":"Following the inflation surge in the aftermath of the pandemic crisis, Euro Area governments adopted a large array of fiscal measures to cushion its impact on households. The inflationary shock and related fiscal measures affected households differently depending on their country, their consumption patterns, and their position in the income distribution. This paper uncovers the aggregate and distributional impact of this inflationary shock, as well as the impact of the government measures aimed at supporting households and containing prices. The analysis is carried out for 2022 and includes Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece. Our work confirms that the purchasing power and welfare of low‐income households was more severely affected than that of high‐income households. Fiscal measures contributed significantly to closing this gap, though with country differences. However, most fiscal measures were not particularly targeted at low‐income households, implying a low cost‐effectiveness in protecting the poorest in some countries.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Antonio F. Amores","Henrique S. Basso","Johannes Simeon Bischl","Paola Agostini","Silvia De Poli","Emanuele Dicarlo","Maria Flevotomou","Maximilian Freier","Sofía Maier","Esteban García‐Miralles","Myroslav Pidkuyko","Mattia Ricci","Sara Riscado"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12713","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-53481a8c1a723ed5","title":"The short-termism trap: Catering to informed investors with limited horizons","abstract":"Does the stock market exert short-term pressure on listed firms, do they respond, and is this response value reducing? We show that limited investor horizons indeed have those consequences, as follows. First, informative stock prices increase firm value; in our model, they reduce the agency cost of incentivizing managers. Second, short project maturity improves stock price informativeness by catering to informed investors with short horizons. Third, since informed trading capital is a scarce resource, attracting informed investors cannot increase an individual firm’s price informativeness in equilibrium: it simply destroys shareholder value. This “short-termism trap” can potentially destroy up to 100% of the benefits of stock market listing.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["James Dow","Jungsuk Han","Francesco Sangiorgi"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103884","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-535f35c16467ea96","title":"Consumer Search and Price Competition","abstract":"We consider an oligopoly model in which consumers engage in sequential search based on partial product information and advertised prices. By applying Weitzman's (1979) optimal sequential search solution, we derive a simple static condition that fully summarizes consumers' shopping outcomes and translates the pricing game among the sellers into a familiar discrete‐choice problem. Exploiting the discrete‐choice reformulation, we provide sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence and uniqueness of market equilibrium and analyze the effects of preference diversity and search frictions on market prices. Among other things, we show that a reduction in search costs raises market prices.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Michael Choi","Anovia Yifan Dai","Kyungmin Kim"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14837","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5384918f964b1430","title":"The impact of air pollution on movie theater admissions","abstract":"We provide new evidence of pollution avoidance in the movie theater market. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset of high-frequency movie ticket sales in China at the movie- and city-level during 2012–2014. We estimate that one pollution day reduces the market share of a movie by 2.26%, other things being equal. The effect is mainly through ambient pollution exposure during transportation to the theater. On average, popular movies are inelastic to air pollution. However, as air quality deteriorates, even blockbuster movies start to suffer a box-office loss during the heavy pollution episodes.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Xiaobo He","Zijun Luo","Junjie Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102626","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5389f3ffc399d9dc","title":"The Expansion of Incentive (Performance-Based) Regulation of Electricity Distribution and Transmission in the United States","abstract":"I examine developments in the application of performance-based regulation (PBR) to electricity distribution and transmission in the United States. Applications of comprehensive PBR to electricity distribution had been slow to diffuse in the U.S. prior to roughly 2000. PBR mechanisms are now being applied more frequently to electricity distribution, which reflects the changing structure of the electric power industry and the increasing obligations that are being placed on electric distribution companies. The new obligations are a consequence primarily of aggressive targets for decarbonizing the electricity sector in nearly half the states and the goal of using “clean” electricity to electrify transportation, buildings, and other sectors. PBR should be viewed as a set of “building blocks” that can be adopted in various combinations and should recognize that PBR and traditional cost-of-service regulation (COSR) are properly viewed as complements rather than substitutes. Recent reforms in the regulation of distribution companies in Great Britain—“RIIO”—have been influential in the U.S. The main reforms contained in RIIO are discussed. There has been essentially no application of PBR by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to owners of transmission assets or to independent transmission operators. FERC has applied targeted incentives to encourage investment in transmission facilities and membership in independent system operator organizations. However, the regulation of transmission rates relies primarily on COSR in the form of formula rates and has poor incentive properties. Regulation of independent system operators is a challenge because they are non-profit organizations with no equity to put at risk. Reforms here are suggested.","wordCount":252,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Paul L. Joskow"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09973-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-538fd634df042b1f","title":"From Peer Pressure to Biased Norms","abstract":"This paper studies a coordination game between a continuum of players with heterogeneous tastes who perceive peer pressure when behaving differently from each other. It characterizes the conditions under which a social norm—a mode of behavior followed by many—exists in equilibrium and the patterns of norm compliance. The emergent norm may be biased compared to the average taste in society, yet endogenously upheld by the population. Strikingly, a biased norm will, under some circumstances, be more sustainable than a non-biased norm, which may explain the bias of various social and religious norms.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Moti Michaeli","Daniel Spiro"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150151","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-538fe21d0ad568ba","title":"JUE Insight: Is hospital quality predictive of pandemic deaths? Evidence from US counties","abstract":"In the large literature on the spatial-level correlates of COVID-19, the association between quality of hospital care and outcomes has received little attention to date. To examine whether county-level mortality is correlated with measures of hospital performance, we assess daily cumulative deaths and pre-crisis measures of hospital quality, accounting for state fixed-effects and potential confounders. As a measure of quality, we use the pre-pandemic adjusted five-year penalty rates for excess 30-day readmissions following pneumonia admissions for the hospitals accessible to county residents based on ambulance travel patterns. Our adjustment corrects for socio-economic status and down-weighs observations based on small samples. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in the quality of local hospitals is associated with a 2% lower death rate (relative to the mean of 20 deaths per 10,000 people) one and a half years after the first recorded death.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Johannes Kunz","Carol Propper"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103472","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-53a1799bd7358fb3","title":"Delivering the Vote: The Political Effect of Free Mail Delivery in Early Twentieth Century America","abstract":"The rollout of Rural Free Delivery (RFD) in the early twentieth century dramatically increased the frequency with which rural voters received information. This article examines the effect of RFD on voters' and Representatives' behavior using a panel dataset and instrumental variables. Communities receiving more routes spread their votes to more parties; there is no evidence it changed turnout. RFD shifted positions taken by Representatives in line with rural constituents, including increased support for pro-temperance and anti-immigration policies. These results appear only in counties with newspapers, supporting the hypothesis that information flows play a crucial role in the political process. “As the whole world has been drawn closer together by the inventions and uses of steam and electricity, so farmers may be drawn closer together by the universal practice of free delivery.” —Matthew Williams of Verndale, Minnesota as quoted in the 1900 Yearbook of the United States Department of Agriculture","wordCount":149,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Elisabeth Ruth Perlman","Steven Sprick Schuster"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000784","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-53a1aa17a74c9576","title":"A meta-analysis of loss aversion in risky contexts","abstract":"Loss aversion is widely regarded as the most robust and ubiquitous finding in behavioural economics. According to the loss aversion hypothesis, the subjective value of losses exceeds the subjective value of equivalent gains. One common assumption in the literature is that this asymmetry represents a fundamental and stable feature of people’s preferences. In cumulative prospect theory, loss aversion is captured by the lambda (λ) parameter, which controls the steepness of the value function for losses. Estimates of λ by Tversky and Kahneman (1992) found evidence for considerable overweighting of losses in risky choice (λ = 2.25). But others find very different levels of loss aversion, with some reporting weak loss aversion or even loss neutrality. In order to assess what is the average level of λ reported in the literature, we set out to conduct a meta-analysis of studies in which λ parameter of the cumulative prospect theory parameter was estimated from individual choices between risky prospects. We draw three conclusions. First, surprisingly few studies have estimated λ by fitting the prospect theory to individual choices between mixed gambles, and there are only a few available datasets suitable to perform model fitting. Second, much of the data are of poor quality, making it impossible to obtain precise estimates of the prospect theory’s parameters. Third, using a random-effect meta-analysis upon the available data, we found a small λ of 1.31, 95% CI [1.10, 1.53].","wordCount":233,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Lukasz Walasek","Timothy L. Mullett","Neil Stewart"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102740","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-53ab35eaf243e9bd","title":"Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How","abstract":"The Bartik instrument is formed by interacting local industry shares and national industry growth rates. We show that the typical use of a Bartik instrument assumes a pooled exposure research design, where the shares measure differential exposure to common shocks, and identification is based on exogeneity of the shares. Next, we show how the Bartik instrument weights each of the exposure designs. Finally, we discuss how to assess the plausibility of the research design. We illustrate our results through two applications: estimating the elasticity of labor supply, and estimating the elasticity of substitution between immigrants and natives.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham","Isaac Sorkin","Henry Swift"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181047","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-53b4000655855cb7","title":"A Theory of Non-Bayesian Social Learning","abstract":"This paper studies the behavioral foundations of non-Bayesian models of learning over social networks and develops a taxonomy of conditions for information aggregation in a general framework. As our main behavioral assumption, we postulate that agents follow social learning rules that satisfy “imperfect recall,” according to which they treat the current beliefs of their neighbors as sufficient statistics for the entire history of their observations. We augment this assumption with various restrictions on how agents process the information provided by their neighbors and obtain representation theorems for the corresponding learning rules (including the canonical model of DeGroot). We then obtain general long-run learning results that are not tied to the learning rules' specific functional forms, thus identifying the fundamental forces that lead to learning, non-learning, and mislearning in social networks. Our results illustrate that, in the presence of imperfect recall, long-run aggregation of information is closely linked to (i) the rate at which agents discount their neighbors' information over time, (ii) the curvature of agents' social learning rules, and (iii) whether their initial tendencies are amplified or moderated as a result of social interactions.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Pooya Molavi","Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi","Ali Jadbabaie"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14613","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-53b4acfa3290e213","title":"Systematic default and return predictability in the stock and bond markets","abstract":"We construct a measure of systematic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. Systematic default spikes during recessions, is correlated with macroeconomic indicators, and predicts future realized defaults. More importantly, it predicts future equity and corporate bond index returns both in- and out-of-sample. Finally, we find that the cross-section of average stock returns is related to firm-level exposures to systematic default risk.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Jack Bao","Kewei Hou","Shaojun Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.05.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-53c1b8e26f80297a","title":"The impacts of private hospital entry on the public market for elective care in England","abstract":"This paper examines reforms that enabled private hospitals to compete with public hospitals for elective patients in England. Studying hip replacements, we compare changes in outcomes across areas differentially exposed to private hospital entry, instrumenting hospital entry with the pre-reform location of private hospitals. We find private hospital entry increased the number of publicly funded hip replacements by 12% but did not reduce volumes at incumbent public hospitals, and had no impact on readmission rates. This suggests new entrants exerted little competitive pressure on incumbents. Instead, the market expanded with more marginal patients receiving treatment at an earlier point in time, resulting in a fall in average patient severity. Additional publicly funded volumes were not associated with reduced privately funded volumes, while impacts of provider entry did not vary by local deprivation. These findings indicate the reform increased publicly funded capacity but did not improve quality at existing public hospitals.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Elaine Kelly","George Stoye"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102353","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-53c9c6d62bc51da2","title":"Entry Regulation and Persistence of Profits in Incumbent Firms","abstract":"In line with the theory of creative destruction, industries where incumbent firms generate high profits will attract entry, which should drive down profits. This disciplinary effect of entry implies that profits above the norm should not exist in the long run. Factors that affect entry—such as entry regulations—could affect this profits convergence process. Using an unbalanced panel of firm- and country-level data for approximately 13,000 firms in 33 countries between 2005 and 2013, we examine the profit dynamics of incumbent firms in the context of entry and entry regulations.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Sameeksha Desai","Johan Eklund","Emma Lappi"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09787-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-53d8ece68c9d306b","title":"Mitigating financial risk of corporate power purchase agreements via portfolio optimization","abstract":"In a world where corporate sustainability commitments are increasing, and governments are starting to phase out of renewable energy subsidy schemes, renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) can act as a substitute to the governmental support. The combination of renewable energy projects placed in multiple locations (multi-location) and based on different technologies (multi-technology) has the potential to offset the volatility of single renewable energy projects and the risk associated with them. This paper presents a stochastic optimization framework to maximize the expected financial performance of multi-location and multi-technology PPAs while minimizing the financial risk associated with them, which is defined as the likelihood of having low financial performance, from the corporate off-taker perspective. This is achieved through the assessment and optimization of multi-location and multi-technology PPA portfolios. Conditional value at risk is applied to reduce the risk of low financial performance while preserving high expected financial gains. The developed framework enables the identification of the optimal trade-offs between expected financial performance and financial risk, and of the corresponding optimal configurations of PPA portfolios. The benefits of multi-technology and multi-location on portfolio risk reduction are demonstrated via the application to two PPAs portfolios, namely, one compounding projects with different technologies located in the same country, and one compounding different technologies across different countries. Results show that higher expected financial gains are obtained by investing in the single, most-convenient PPA project, whereas combining projects reduces the overall financial risk and allows to meet the off-taker energy demand profile with higher expected financial performance.","wordCount":250,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Paolo Gabrielli","Reyhaneh Aboutalebi","Giovanni Sansavini"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105980","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-53e275bc28f597b1","title":"Overtreatment and benevolent provider moral hazard: Evidence from South African doctors","abstract":"Overtreatment is widespread in health, with potentially dire consequences for patients, health systems and public health. It may be fueled by providers when they do not bear the cost of treatment (moral hazard), even they do not profit financially from it (i.e. benevolent providers). We test this hypothesis by creating an exogeneous change in the incentives faced by private doctors in South Africa. We find that provider moral hazard has no effect on overtreatment in volume but fuels overtreatment in cost. By contrast, when they bear the marginal treatment cost, doctors choose cheaper drug. While these results suggest that provider moral hazard contributes to overtreatment in primary care, we consider other plausible channels, such as responses to a perceived demand for high-quality drugs or market segmentation. We discuss the potential scope for supply-side cost-sharing incentives to reduce inefficiency in future health system reforms in South Africa.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Mylène Lagarde","Duane Blaauw"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102917","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-53fbb9955e704ee4","title":"The roles of energy markets and environmental regulation in reducing coal‐fired plant profits and electricity sector emissions","abstract":"Between 2005 and 2015, US electricity sector emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, which harm human health and the environment, declined by two thirds, and many coal‐fired power plants became unprofitable and retired. Intense public controversy has focused on these changes, but the literature has not identified their underlying causes. Using a new electricity sector model of the US eastern interconnection that accurately reproduces unit operation, emissions, and retirement, we find that electricity consumption and natural gas prices account for nearly all the coal plant profitability declines and resulting retirements. Environmental regulations had little effect on these outcomes.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Joshua Linn","Kristen McCormack"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12294","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-540247aa66920503","title":"Inducing Leaders to Take Risky Decisions: Dismissal, Tenure, and Term Limits","abstract":"How can a principal (employer or voter) induce an agent (worker or politician) to choose the “right” actions if risky actions reveal the agent's decision-making competence and only dismissal can be used as an incentive instrument? We first show that if the principal can commit to a replacement strategy, then optimal mechanisms involve either (i) a probationary period and then indefinite tenure, or (ii) dismissing poorly performing agents but also randomly replacing agents who take nonrevealing actions. When the principal cannot commit, incentives can be improved by imposing term limits on agents.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Philippe Aghion","Matthew O. Jackson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150083","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-540a908abbacd6ab","title":"The gender division of labour in early modern England","abstract":"This article presents new evidence of gendered work patterns in the pre‐industrial economy, providing an overview of women's work in early modern England. Evidence of 4,300 work tasks undertaken by particular women and men was collected from three types of court documents (coroners’ reports, church court depositions, and quarter sessions examinations) from five counties in south‐western England (Cornwall, Devon, Hampshire, Somerset, and Wiltshire) between 1500 and 1700. The findings show that women participated in all the main areas of the economy. However, different patterns of gendered work were identified in different parts of the economy: craft work showed a sharp division of labour and agriculture a flexible division of labour, while differences of gender were less pronounced in everyday commerce. Quantitative evidence of early modern housework and care work in England indicates that such work used less time and was less family‐based than is often assumed. Comparisons with gendered work patterns in early modern Germany and Sweden are drawn and show strong similarities to England. In conclusion it is argued that the gender division of labour cannot be explained by a single factor, as different influences were at play in different parts of the economy.","wordCount":195,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Jane Whittle","Mark Hailwood"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12821","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-541912664968dfbb","title":"Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture","abstract":"Extreme weather events frequently cause severe crop yield losses, affecting food security and farmers’ incomes. In this paper, we aim to provide a holistic assessment of these impacts across various extreme weather events and multiple crops. More specifically, we estimate and compare the impact of frost, heat, drought and waterlogging on yields of winter wheat, winter barley, winter rapeseed and grain maize production in Germany. We analyse 423,815 farm-level yield observations between 1995 and 2019, and account for extreme weather conditions within critical phenological phases. Furthermore, we monetarize historical yield losses due to extreme weather events on a spatially disaggregated level. We find that drought is a main driver for farm-level grain yield and monetary losses in German agriculture. For instance, a single drought day can reduce winter wheat yields by up to 0.36%. It is estimated that during the period 1995–2019, summer drought led to yield losses in winter wheat, which, on average, caused annual revenues to sink by over 23 million Euro across Germany. We find that the impacts of extreme weather events vary considerably across space and time. For example, only the most important winter rapeseed production region in the North of Germany was prone to winter rapeseed yield losses due to heat during flowering. Moreover, waterlogging and frost are generally less relevant from an economic point of view, but can nevertheless cause crop- and regional-specific damage. Our analysis provides stakeholders with information for weather-related risk management and adaptation strategies.","wordCount":243,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Jonas Schmitt","Frank Offermann","Mareike Söder","Cathleen Frühauf","Robert Finger"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102359","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5419a3a3d78f3eaf","title":"Tail index estimation in the presence of covariates: Stock returns’ tail risk dynamics","abstract":"This paper provides novel theoretical results for the estimation of the conditional tail index of Pareto and Pareto-type distributions in a time series context. We show that both the estimators and relevant test statistics are normally distributed in the limit, when independent and identically distributed or dependent data are considered. Simulation results provide support for the theoretical findings and highlight the good finite sample properties of the approach in a time series context. The proposed methodology is then used to analyse stock returns’ tail risk dynamics. Two empirical applications are provided. The first consists in testing whether the time-varying tail exponents across firms follow Kelly and Jiang’s (2014) assumption of common firm level tail dynamics. The results obtained from our sample seem not to favour this hypothesis. The second application, consists of the evaluation of the impact of two market risk indicators, VIX and Expected Shortfall (ES) and two firm specific covariates, capitalization and market-to-book on stocks tail risk dynamics. Although all variables seem important drivers of firms’ tail risk dynamics, it is found that ES and firms’ capitalization seem to have overall wider impact.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Jo�ão Nicolau","Paulo M.M. Rodrigues","Marian Z. Stoykov"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.04.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-54251e5f710ed1ab","title":"Volatility‐Managed Portfolios","abstract":"Managed portfolios that take less risk when volatility is high produce large alphas, increase Sharpe ratios, and produce large utility gains for mean‐variance investors. We document this for the market, value, momentum, profitability, return on equity, investment, and betting‐against‐beta factors, as well as the currency carry trade. Volatility timing increases Sharpe ratios because changes in volatility are not offset by proportional changes in expected returns. Our strategy is contrary to conventional wisdom because it takes relatively less risk in recessions. This rules out typical risk‐based explanations and is a challenge to structural models of time‐varying expected returns.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Alan Moreira","Tyler Muir"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12513","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-542810dcae22b893","title":"Impacts of conservation incentives in protected areas: The case of Bolsa Floresta, Brazil","abstract":"Conditional incentives are a promising complementary approach to conserve tropical forests, for example, in multiple-use protected areas. In this paper we analyze the environmental impacts of Bolsa Floresta, a forest conservation program that combines direct conditional payments with livelihood-focused investments in 15 multiple-use reserves in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. We use grid-based data, nearest-neighbor matching, and panel data econometrics to compare three forest-related program outcomes – deforestation, degradation, and fires – of participating and non-participating reserve areas. Forest threats were low before and after treatment, because the program prioritized low-pressure sites. Thus, we find significant but small additional conservation effects from the implementation of the program. Notwithstanding, treatment effects are relatively larger in areas with higher deforestation pressure and higher potential agricultural income. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence showing that adverse spatial targeting of conservation incentives, i.e. disproportionally enrolling low–pressure sites, is a prime cause for the low additionality found in rigorous impact evaluations of many existing initiatives.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Elías Cisneros","Jan Börner","Stefano Pagiola","Sven Wunder"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102572","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5429989f4cfbf08a","title":"Religion, discrimination and trust across three cultures","abstract":"We propose that religion impacts trust and trustworthiness in ways that depend on how individuals are socially identified and connected. Religiosity and religious affiliation may serve as markers for statistical discrimination. Further, affiliation to the same religion may enhance group identity, or affiliation irrespective of creed may lend social identity, and in turn induce taste-based discrimination. Religiosity may also relate to general prejudice. We test these hypotheses across three culturally diverse countries. Participants' willingness to discriminate, beliefs of how trustworthy or trusting others are, as well as actual trust and trustworthiness are measured incentive compatibly. We find that interpersonal similarity in religiosity and affiliation promote trust through beliefs of reciprocity. Religious participants also believe that those belonging to some faith are trustworthier, but invest more trust only in those of the same religion—religiosity amplifies this effect. Across non-religious categories, whereas more religious participants are more willing to discriminate, less religious participants are as likely to display group biases.","wordCount":158,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Swee‐Hoon Chuah","Simon Gächter","Robert Hoffmann","Jonathan H. W. Tan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.03.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5429e56656029998","title":"Learning and staged equity financing","abstract":"We propose a rationale for why firms often return to the equity market shortly after their initial public offering (IPO). We argue that hard to value firms conduct smaller IPOs, and that they return to the equity market conditional on a positive valuation signal. This is driven by two-way learning, as market information complements both corporate disclosure and internal information available to management. In contrast to prior studies, we find that information asymmetry is not a necessary condition for staged financing. Our arguments receive support in a sample of 3625 U.S. IPOs between 1980 and 2018.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Magnus Blomkvist","Timo Korkeamäki","Tuomas Takalo"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102217","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-542be2326532b4f3","title":"The Effect of Safety Net Generosity on Maternal Mental Health and Risky Health Behaviors","abstract":"Single mothers are more likely to experience mental health problems and stress‐related negative health behaviors than their married counterparts, but a more generous safety net may improve these outcomes. We use a simulated safety net eligibility approach that accounts for interactions across safety net programs and relies on changing policies across states and time to identify causal effects of safety net generosity on psychological distress and risky behaviors of single mothers. Results suggest that a more generous safety net is protective of maternal mental health: a $1,000 increase to the simulated potential combined cash and food benefit package reduces severe psychological distress by 8.4 percent. Breaking out effects by individual programs while still controlling for potential benefits from other programs, we find protective effects of tax credits, cash benefits provided by Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and food benefits provided by Supplemental Nutritional Assistance, but no effects of Medicaid eligibility. The effects are primarily driven by single mothers with the lowest levels of education. We find no significant effects of generosity on daily smoking, but we find evidence that benefits reduce the likelihood of heavy drinking. Results suggest that government investments in resources available to low‐income families can be effective at improving well‐being.","wordCount":203,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Lucie Schmidt","Lara Shore‐Sheppard","Tara Watson"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22481","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5438dca4d6f4ffda","title":"Trade, location, and multi-product firms","abstract":"In this paper we study how trade liberalization affects the location and the product scope of firms. We find that the largest and most productive multi-product firms concentrate to the larger market as a result of trade liberalization. In the presence of relocation costs, we also find that these firms will expand their product scope in the larger market while firms in the smaller market will contract their product scope or expand it to a smaller degree. The adjustment of firms’ product scope can therefore be a substitute for firm relocation, and the cost of introducing new varieties becomes an important parameter, that influences the degree of agglomeration.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Rikard Forslid","Toshihiro Okubo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103891","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-544239102d73814c","title":"Perceived social norm and behavior quickly adjusted to legal changes during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"Exploring the joint dynamics of laws and social norms helps understand when social norms are sticky or adaptive. Using the example of the social and physical distancing measures introduced to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, we studied whether introducing, and then lifting, distancing regulations led individuals to quickly change their habits, not only by modifying the monetary incentives of rule violators but also by shifting the individuals' perception of the appropriateness of social encounters. We conducted an online incentivized experiment in France, where we elicited the same participants' perceived norm and social distancing behavior every week for three months. We find that both norm perception and behavior shifted as soon as the government introduced or removed social distancing measures. This effect was fast acting and long lasting, a result that highlights the importance of the expressive power of the law for norm formation and behavior.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Fortuna Casoria","Fabio Galeotti","Marie Claire Villeval"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.07.030","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-544d4d1db3bcc0d7","title":"An adaptive long memory conditional correlation model","abstract":"We propose a conditional correlation model with long memory dependence and smooth structural change. Previous literature has considered correlation and covariance models with structural change or long memory, but this is the first paper to jointly model both features. The correlation matrix is decomposed into long and short run components. Short run correlations converge hypergeometrically towards a slow moving long run correlation matrix that evolves according to one or more flexible Fourier forms. The model is applied to two data sets: a US equity portfolio; and a US equity, bond, gold and oil portfolio. Model fit and out of sample forecasts over 1 to 60 day horizons support the proposed approach.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Jonathan Dark"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101463","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-544dc99c63822303","title":"Why Don’t People Trust Experts?","abstract":"Credence goods such as health care, legal and financial services, and auto repair create a conflict of interest by requiring experts to diagnose and provide services to uninformed consumers. Mistreatment of consumers appears widespread empirically, but a simple explanation for mistreatment under realistic assumptions has proved elusive. I generalize Uwe Dulleck and Rudolf Kerschbamer’s credence-good model to incorporate the highly realistic assumption that consumers do not observe experts’ cost functions. The model guarantees equilibrium mistreatment in a wide range of price-setting and market environments. The model also yields testable implications regarding the nature of mistreating firms and the direction of mistreatment.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Nathaniel Hilger"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/687076","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5459e7a8f5e77743","title":"Who Benefits from Information Disclosure? The Case of Retail Gasoline","abstract":"How does online price disclosure affect competition when both consumers and firms can use the disclosed information? This paper addresses this question exploiting the sequential implementation of an online price-disclosure policy in the Chilean retail gasoline industry. The results show that disclosure increased margins by 9 percent on average, though the effects varied across the country depending on the intensity of local search behavior. Because margins increased the least, and even decreased, in high-search areas, where income is also higher, the results also show that price disclosure policies may have important distributional effects.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Fernando Luco"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170110","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5473e2ee65f24546","title":"Carbon Tail Risk","abstract":"Strong regulatory actions are needed to combat climate change, but climate policy uncertainty makes it difficult for investors to quantify the impact of future climate regulation. We show that such uncertainty is priced in the option market. The cost of option protection against downside tail risks is larger for firms with more carbon-intense business models. For carbon-intense firms, the cost of protection against downside tail risk is magnified at times when the public’s attention to climate change spikes, and it decreased after the election of climate change skeptic President Trump.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Emirhan Ilhan","Zacharias Sautner","Grigory Vilkov"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa071","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-5481fd17c583e0dd","title":"Seasoned equity crowdfunded offerings","abstract":"This paper conjectures that, just as SEO (seasoned equity offering) firms are likely to face fewer information asymmetry problems relative to IPO firms, the same applies to SECO relative to initial ECF (equity crowdfunding) campaign firms. This is mainly due to new information at a SECO - such as pre-money valuation gains – that reduces adverse selection problems. Using a sample of 709 UK ECF firms conducting a first SECO campaign over the 2011–2018 period, the probit results suggest that annualised valuation gains between the initial and SECO campaigns increases the probability of having a successful first SECO campaign but the equity offered lowers this probability. First SECO success is also related to different platform shareholder structures. The results show that the nominee model and coinvestment model dominate the direct model in terms of the probability of conducting a successful first SECO campaign. This is likely linked to reduced adverse selection and moral hazard problems stemming from no separation between ownership and control and enhanced due diligence and monitoring capabilities.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Jerry Coakley","Aristogenis Lazos","José Manuel Liñares-Zegarra"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101880","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-54988259f7c73862","title":"Mortgage credit and house prices: The housing market equilibrium revisited","abstract":"Over the last decade, house prices have increased substantially in nearly all OECD countries. These house price increases frequently coincided with changes in mortgage credit conditions; i.e., decreases in the interest rate and increases in income. This is in line with existing literature, which finds an equilibrium relationship between mortgage credit and house prices. The literature, however, lacks an analysis of what drives the equilibrium, which we assess in this paper. Moreover, we propose a combination of two explanations discussed in the literature. That is, we argue that lower-income households are bound by credit constraints, while higher-income households have a preference for spending a fixed fraction of income on mortgage payments. We develop theoretical models for all three explanations and test the models using data on the Dutch property market. The empirical results clearly support the combined approach. Overall, the results suggest that it is important to differentiate between types of households when forecasting house prices or assessing the effectiveness of policy interventions.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Rosa van der Drift","Jan de Haan","Peter Boelhouwer"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106136","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5499c5a4403080c1","title":"Self-Targeting: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia","abstract":"This paper shows that adding a small application cost to a transfer program can substantially improve targeting through self-selection. Our village-level experiment in Indonesia finds that requiring beneficiaries to apply for benefits results in substantially poorer beneficiaries than automatic enrollment using the same asset test. Marginally increasing application costs on an experimental basis does not further improve targeting. Estimating a model of the application decision implies that the results are largely driven by the nonpoor, who make up the bulk of the population, forecasting that they are unlikely to pass the asset test and therefore not bothering to apply.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Vivi Alatas","Abhijit Banerjee","Rema Hanna","Benjamin Olken","Ririn Purnamasari","Matthew Wai‐Poi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/685299","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-549c16844b508f8f","title":"Modelling the objective function of managers in the presence of overlapping shareholding","abstract":"The objective function of managers in the presence of overlapping shareholding may differ from the traditional own-firm profit maximization, as they may internalize the externalities their strategies impose on other firms. The dominant formulation of the objective function in such cases has, however, been criticised for yielding counter-intuitive profit weights when the ownership of non-overlapping shareholders is highly dispersed. In this paper, we examine this issue. First, we make use of a probabilistic voting model (in which shareholders vote to elect the manager) to microfound an alternative formulation of the objective function of managers, which solves the above-mentioned criticism. Second, we apply the two formulations to the set of S&P 500 firms. We show that ownership dispersion of non-overlapping shareholders is, in fact, a relevant empirical issue, which may induce an over-quantification of the profit weights computed from the dominant formulation, particularly under a proportional control assumption.","wordCount":147,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Duarte Brito","Einer Elhauge","Ricardo Ribeiro","Hélder Vasconcelos"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102905","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-54c34dfd15a2ee27","title":"The Effect of Institutional Ownership on Payout Policy: Evidence from Index Thresholds","abstract":"We show that higher institutional ownership causes firms to pay more dividends. Our identification relies on a discontinuity in ownership around Russell index thresholds. Our estimates indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in institutional ownership causes a $7 million (8%) increase in dividends. We also find differences in shareholder proposals and voting patterns that suggest that even nonactivist institutions play an important role in monitoring firm behavior. The effect of institutional ownership on dividends is stronger for firms with higher expected agency costs.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Alan D. Crane","Sébastien Michenaud","James Weston"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw012","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-54cae8fcae64302c","title":"Infant mortality decline in rural and urban Bavaria: fertility, economic transformation, infant care, and inequality in Bavaria and Munich, 1825–1910","abstract":"During most of the nineteenth century, Bavaria was notorious for infant mortality rates that were among the highest in Europe. After 1870, infant mortality in Bavaria began a sustained decline. This decline, which was impressive in urban areas, was even more dramatic in Bavaria's capital, Munich. From a peak of 40 deaths per 100 births in the 1860s, infant mortality had fallen two‐thirds by 1914. This article examines the causes of infant mortality in rural and urban districts of Bavaria from 1880 to 1910 and in Munich from 1825 up to shortly before the First World War. In rural Bavaria, structural change in agriculture lowered infant mortality, even as stark differences in infant survival driven by income gaps and deficient infant care remained. In urban areas, high fertility was strongly associated with high infant mortality. Individual‐level data from Munich reveal that infant care, fertility, and incomes mattered. Even prior to industrialization, occupational status influenced infant survival. Munich's growth into a leading industrial centre after 1875 apparently widened the gap between rich and poor. Families at the top of the occupational distribution and couples able to acquire real property saw the steepest declines in infant mortality. The poorest one‐third without property saw little improvement.","wordCount":203,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["J. Christopher Brown","Timothy W. Guinnane"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12573","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-54cfbf597e324d2b","title":"Post-merger Price Dynamics Matters, So Why Do Merger Retrospectives Ignore It?","abstract":"The overwhelming majority of retrospective merger studies pool the post-merger data to estimate the average price effect of the merger. Pooled post-merger estimates ignore key information about price dynamics and are unable to identify if post-merger prices revert to pre-merger levels within the same time period. We provide evidence—from a meta-analysis of over 600 previous market-level price effect estimates, and a set of Monte Carlo experiments—that using pooled models often leads to erroneous conclusions: for example by wrongly concluding that the merger increased prices, even when this price increase was only temporary.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Franco Mariuzzo","Peter L. Ormosi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09719-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-54d053e278b94521","title":"Collective reputation and the dynamics of statistical discrimination","abstract":"Economists have developed theoretical models identifying self‐fulfilling expectations as an important source of statistical discrimination practices. The static models dominating the literature, however, may leave the false impression that a bad equilibrium is as fragile as a “bubble” and can burst at any moment when expectations flip. By developing a dynamic version of the model, we clarify the limits of expectations‐related fragility. Even if group members can coordinate their expectations about future employer behavior, a group with a poor initial collective reputation may still be unable to recover its reputation, implying that the once‐developed discriminatory outcomes can be long‐standing.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Young‐Chul Kim","Glenn C. Loury"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12260","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-54d43f012edb5583","title":"Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges","abstract":"A rapidly growing literature uses quantitative general equilibrium models of economic geography to study the economic impact of historical events such as the railroad revolution, industrial take-off, structural transformation and wars. I identify three key challenges facing this literature: the tractability of model structure, the availability of historical data, and issues related to identification. I review the literature by discussing how it has been addressing each of these challenges. While doing so, I point out the rich set of questions that this literature can address, as well as the methodological innovations it has conducted to answer these questions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Dávid Krisztián Nagy"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103675","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-54d48f4699fc2ba4","title":"Did cities increase skills during industrialization? Evidence from rural-urban migration","abstract":"The process of industrialization is typically associated with urbanization and a large urban-rural gap in productivity and skills. To what extent were these disparities driven by the direct impact on occupational attainment of living in an urban area or the result of the positive self-selection of migrants moving to cities? In this paper, we leverage exceptional Swedish longitudinal data that allow us to estimate the impact of rural-urban migration on occupational attainment during Sweden’s industrialization from the 1880s to the 1930s using a staggered treatment difference-in-differences estimator. We attribute roughly half of the urban premium to a direct impact of living in an urban area, whereas the other half is driven by self-selection into cities. A third of the direct impact of residing in cities is explained by a static effect, reflecting the urban advantage, while the rest is the result of a dynamic effect as individuals move into higher-skilled occupations over time in urban areas.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Jonatan Andersson","Jakob Molinder"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103772","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-54da94900d35cc05","title":"Does democracy shape international merger activity?","abstract":"Democracy matters for international merger activity. Using a sample of 101,834 cross-border deals announced between 1985 and 2018, we show that merger flows predominantly involve acquirers from more democratic countries than their targets. This result is primarily driven by a “pull” factor: firms in countries with weaker democratic institutions attract more cross-border deals. We find evidence of bonding as the key mechanism behind this effect. The democracy effect is stronger when target countries have weaker corporate governance standards. Furthermore, target abnormal returns around deal announcements increase with the difference in democracy between acquirer and target countries. Importantly, differences in investor protection or economic development do not directly explain the democracy effect. Combined, our findings imply that democracy is a fundamental, yet previously overlooked, determinant of cross-border mergers.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Muhammad Farooq Ahmad","Thomas Lambert","José M. Martín-Flores","Arthur Romec"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103995","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-54dd15c814336c79","title":"The impact of network infrastructure on enterprise digital transformation ——A quasi-natural experiment from the “broadband China” Strategy","abstract":"In this paper, a multi-period difference-in-difference model is constructed to investigate the impact of network infrastructure on enterprise digital transformation. The results show that network infrastructure has effectively promoted the digital transformation of enterprises. Meanwhile, as the scale of network infrastructure construction expands, the role of network infrastructure in promoting enterprise digital transformation will be enhanced. Based on the mechanism analysis, network infrastructure promotes enterprise digital transformation through two channels: easing corporate financing constraints and improving core technical capabilities. Furthermore, the role of network infrastructure in enterprise digital transformation is not invariable, the effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, growth enterprises, manufacturing enterprises, and enterprises located in developed cities.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Xiaofang Jia","Baojian Xie","Xingan Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2176450","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-54de8d920bc79c47","title":"Insecure property rights and the housing market: Explaining India’s housing vacancy paradox","abstract":"One housing paradox in many markets is the simultaneous presence of high costs and high vacancy rates. India has expensive housing relative to incomes and an urban housing vacancy rate of 12.4%. We show how insecure property rights in India, as a result of rent control and weak contract enforcement, increases vacancy rates. Using a two-way linear fixed effects panel regression, we exploit changes in rent control laws in the states of West Bengal, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Maharashtra to find that pro-tenant laws are positively related to vacancy rates. A pro-landlord policy change liberalizing rent adjustments could potentially reduce vacancy rates by 2.8 to 3.1 percentage points. Contract enforcement measured by density of judges is negatively related to vacancy. We estimate that a policy change in rent control laws would have a net welfare benefit and could reduce India's housing shortage by 7.5%.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Sahil Gandhi","Richard K. Green","Shaonlee Patranabis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103490","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-54e06dbf3cd55c3f","title":"Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan","abstract":"This paper investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in accounting for the long-term trend of capital flows under demographic changes. For this purpose, we incorporate horizontal FDI under the proximity-concentration trade-off into a two-country DSGE model and conduct a quantitative analysis using long-term Japanese data for capital flows since the 1960s. The quantitative analysis finds that the transition dynamics solely driven by demographic changes well account for the long-term trend of capital flows and that multinational firms’ endogenous decision on FDI in response to population aging is key to explaining the long-term trend.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Naohisa Hirakata","Mitsuru Katagiri"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-54ed3e97a5953a75","title":"Environmental enforcement actions and corporate green innovation","abstract":"This study explores the influence of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) enforcement on corporate green innovation, as measured by green patent counts and citations. Our findings show that EPA-enforced firms experience a substantial uptick in green innovation outputs. This boost can be attributed to enhanced green innovation efficiency and increased hiring of green inventors. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced for firms headquartered in states with stronger environmental enforcement intensity, firms with higher institutional ownership, and firms with fewer financial constraints. Finally, we find that green innovations help enforced firms avoid future EPA enforcements and reduce toxic chemical releases. Taken together, these results imply that EPA enforcement actions can indeed foster positive impacts on corporate green innovation.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Qiyang He","Buhui Qiu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102711","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5503f76687ef6705","title":"Parking not included: The effect of paid residential parking on housing prices and its relationship with public transport proximity","abstract":"Under-priced street parking is widely considered to be a great urban policy failure and is partly what motivated Stockholm to expand its parking zones for both visitors and residents from 2016 onwards. In this paper we use a unique natural experiment to study the effect of priced parking on property prices in Stockholm suburbs. We find that apartment prices were negatively affected by the unexpected appeal and subsequent revocation of parking fees. This finding is interpreted to mean that the introduction of priced parking yielded benefits to apartment residents in the studied areas, which were capitalized in the price of housing. Based on our estimated results, we find that the implied benefits to residents amounted to the equivalent of approximately €2.5 per day. We investigate whether apartments were differentially impacted based on their distance to public transit but find no strong evidence to support this hypothesis. For single-family homes, no conclusions can be drawn as the standard errors are large in relation to the estimated effects.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Anders Bondemark","Axel Merkel"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103877","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5504bf8745a9bac9","title":"Accounting for Cross‐Country Differences in Wealth Inequality","abstract":"There is considerable cross‐country variation in levels of household wealth and in wealth inequality. This paper assesses the extent to which these differences can be accounted for by differences in the distributions of households' demographic and economic characteristics. A counterfactual decomposition analysis of micro data from five countries (Italy, U.K., U.S., Sweden and Finland) is used to identify the effects of characteristics on component wealth holdings, their value and their distribution. The findings of the paper suggest that the biggest share of cross‐country differences is not attributable to the distribution of household demographic and economic characteristics but rather reflect strong unexplained country effects.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Frank Cowell","Eleni Karagiannaki","Abigail McKnight"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12278","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5508d8b629ba8950","title":"Complementary bidding and cartel detection: Evidence from Nordic asphalt markets","abstract":"A key challenge in cartel enforcement is identifying collusive agreements. We study two major Nordic procurement cartels that operated in the asphalt paving market. We find evidence that during the cartel period bids were clustered and the winning bid was isolated. We implement two cartel detection methods that exploit variation in the distribution of bids. The method developed by Clark et al. (forthcoming) correctly rejects competitive bidding for the cartel period in both markets. The method suggested by Huber and Imhof (2019) achieves a high prediction rate in one of the markets but not in the market where the cartel had a more modest impact on bid distribution. Our results suggest that statistical screening methods with low data requirements can be useful for competition authorities in detecting collusive agreements.","wordCount":129,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Aapo Aaltio","Riku Buri","Antto Jokelainen","Johan Lundberg"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103129","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-550c9eb43334b694","title":"Board connections and crisis performance: Family, state, and political networks","abstract":"We introduce a novel concept of network interactions in which board connections provide access to external spheres of political influence, state ownership, and family control. We posit this form of indirect access via board association enables connected firms to benefit from information privy to external networks while avoiding their resource-based costs of membership. Board network data are assembled for 1290 East Asian firms and linked to hand-collected data on political connections and corporate ownership around the 2008–09 crisis. Companies with board connections to state-owned firms and family business groups had greater crisis-period accounting performance and stock returns. In countries with weak institutional development, board connections to politically connected firms were also beneficial.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Richard W. Carney","Travers Barclay Child","Xiang Li"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101630","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5513072f610c0fe6","title":"Mergers of Complements: On the Absence of Consumer Benefits","abstract":"Mergers of complements are widely thought to decrease prices and thereby benefit consumers. Benefits materialise when the merging parties are monopolists but not when they face perfect competition. What about all cases between those competitive extremes? I model a vertically related industry where every supplier may face competition. I show that, for general demand functions, pre-merger margins can reveal whether a merger would decrease prices. Then I develop a simple, practicable merger test and identify when the standard prediction of merger benefits is inconsistent with observable facts. Instead of yielding benefits, profitable mergers of complements can cause unambiguous consumer harm.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Alessandro S. Kadner‐Graziano"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102935","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-551a6d7c8332ac09","title":"Future changes in consumption: The income effect on greenhouse gas emissions","abstract":"The scale and patterns of household consumption are important determinants of environmental impacts. Whilst affluence has been shown to have a strong correlation with environmental impact, they do not necessarily grow at the same rate. Given the apparent contradiction between the sustainable development goals of economic growth and environmental protection, it is important to understand the effect of rising affluence and concurrent changing consumption patterns on future environmental impacts. Here we develop an econometric demand model based on the data available from a global multiregional input-output dataset. We model future household consumption following scenarios of population and GDP growth for 49 individual regions. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the future household demand is then explored both with and without consideration of the change in expenditure over time on different consumption categories. Compared to a baseline scenario where final demand grows in line with the 2011 average consumption pattern up until 2030, we find that changing consumer preferences with increasing affluence has a small negative effect on global cumulative GHG emissions. The differences are more profound on both a regional and a product level. For the demand model scenario, we find the largest decrease in GHG emissions for the BRICS and other developing countries, while emissions in North America and the EU remain unchanged. Decreased spending and resulting emissions on food are cancelled out by increased spending and emissions on transportation. Despite relatively small global differences between the scenarios, the regional and sectoral wedges indicate that there is a large untapped potential in environmental policies and lifestyle changes that can complement the technological transition towards a low-emitting society.","wordCount":269,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Eivind Lekve Bjelle","Kirsten S. Wiebe","Johannes Többen","Alexandre Tisserant","Diana Ivanova","Gibran Vita","Richard Wood"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105114","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-551f50dc63bffe9f","title":"James M. Buchanan and the Political Economy of Desegregation","abstract":"Were 1986 Nobel Laureate James M. Buchanan's formative contributions to political economy inspired in significant part by hostility to the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision? Nancy MacLean's 2017 Democracy in Chains argues that public choice economics emerged from an opportunistic alliance with Virginia's “Massive Resistance” to school integration and should thus be situated within the racially tinged tradition of southern conservatism. While Buchanan wrote very little on the economics of race, archival evidence and his published works do not support this thesis. Buchanan's work is better understood with reference to his Chicago school mentor Frank Knight and the Italian public finance tradition rather than southern conservatism. To the contrary, we suggest Buchanan believed the competitive processes generated by an educational voucher system would likely undermine rather than rescue the racially segregated status quo. Furthermore, Buchanan's associations and activities suggest that racial hierarchy was not part of his normative vision.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Phillip Magness","Art Carden","Vincent Geloso"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12317","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5526fc609005e670","title":"Device-funded vs ad-funded platforms","abstract":"We analyze device-funded and ad-funded platforms with differentiated ecosystems supporting apps provided under monopolistic competition. The incentives of a device-funded platform in investing in app curation, introducing its own apps and setting commissions on in-app purchases of external apps are largely aligned with those of consumers, while this is not necessarily the case for the ad-funded platform. In particular, consumers gain from a positive commission set by the device-funded platform because this implies a lower price of the device, and the platform’s apps are introduced and priced internalizing the impact on consumer welfare, perfectly in models of horizontal differentiation and partially in models of vertical differentiation.","wordCount":106,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Federico Etro"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102711","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5548339d09430b2a","title":"One or two non-fossil technologies in the decarbonized transport sector?","abstract":"What factors determine whether policymakers should promote one or more technologies in a decarbonized road transport sector, and what policies should governments choose? We investigate these questions theoretically and numerically through a static, partial equilibrium model for the road transport market. We find that one important factor is how close substitutes the two vehicle technologies are. Further, the number of vehicles of one technology depends on the number of vehicles of the other technology, both in the market and in the first-best solution. The first-best policy involves a subsidy of the markup on charging and filling, where the markup is higher the more utility increases with the number of stations. However, as there are several possible market equilibria, additional policies may be needed to avoid an unwanted lock-in.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Gøril L. Andreassen","Knut Einar Rosendahl"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101314","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5555eb629ae84e05","title":"The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment","abstract":"The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of forgone public benefits and the forgone consumption value of nonworking time. We construct a time series of the opportunity cost of employment using detailed microdata and administrative or national accounts data to estimate benefits levels, eligibility, take-up, consumption by labor force status, hours, taxes, and preference parameters. The opportunity cost is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility in leading models of the labor market than that observed in the data, irrespective of the level of the opportunity cost.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Gabriel Chodorow-Reich","Loukas Karabarbounis"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688876","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-555c6af17a6ff770","title":"The evolution of risk attitudes: A panel study of the university years","abstract":"We analyze a unique longitudinal dataset of university students to investigate the stability of risk preferences over a five-year period. Our findings indicate that subjects’ risk tolerance, as measured by incentivized lottery choices, tends to increase over time, while it moves in the opposite direction when assessed through a non-incentivized survey question. Furthermore, we exploit the COVID-19 pandemic to explore the impact of negative experiences and emotions on the temporal changes in subjects’ risk preferences. Our analysis reveals that, within the same group of respondents, the risk tolerance elicited by the incentivized measure proves to be more stable, whereas the survey measure exhibits greater sensitivity, declining in response to negative shocks. These results enhance our understanding of how risk preferences evolve over time and emphasize the importance of employing appropriate measurement methods when investigating risk attitudes.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Catherine C. Eckel","Rick K. Wilson","Nanyin Yang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-025-09457-7","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5564c342cd2a5a02","title":"Energy Subsidy Reform and Poverty in Arab Countries: A Comparative CGE‐Microsimulation Analysis of Egypt and Jordan","abstract":"This study simulates the macroeconomic and distributive impacts of real proposed (by local policy makers) energy subsidy reforms in Egypt and Jordan. To do that, we develop a dynamic CGE‐microsimulation model that is able to reconcile the general equilibrium effects of the reform and the individual‐ and household‐specific distributive effects. While the nature of the proposed reforms differs in the two countries, the study underscores the need, in both countries, for reform to generate fiscal savings to boost private investment and increase economic growth. It also shows that the reform alone would further exacerbate poverty through increased consumer prices. However, a modest reinvestment of fiscal savings into cash transfers creates a win‐win scenario of reduced poverty without significantly sacrificing the fiscal and growth benefits from the reform. Impacts (prices, growth, fiscal savings, poverty) are greater in Egypt due to the extent of proposed reforms and the fact that a larger share of the energy products concerned are consumed directly by households, while in Jordan the major effects come from the increase in intermediate input costs which generate a fall in the aggregate demand and, so, in labor demand.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["John Cockburn","Véronique Robichaud","Luca Tiberti"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12309","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-55747a080c9113d9","title":"The Price Effects of Competition from Parallel Imports and Therapeutic Alternatives: Using Dynamic Models to Estimate the Causal Effect on the Extensive and Intensive Margins","abstract":"This paper studies responses to competition with the use of dynamic models that distinguish between short- and long-term price effects. The dynamic models also allow lagged numbers of competitors to become valid and strong instruments for the current numbers, which enables studying the causal effects using flexible specifications. A first parallel trader is found to decrease prices of exchangeable products by 7% in the long term. On the other hand, prices do not respond to the first competitor that sells therapeutic alternatives; but competition from four or more competitors that sell on-patent therapeutic alternatives decreases prices by about 10% in the long term.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["David Granlund"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09834-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5574e586c18ce7c0","title":"Tort Reform and Innovation","abstract":"Current academic and policy debates focus on the impact of tort reforms on physicians’ behavior and medical costs. This paper examines whether these reforms also affect incentives to develop new technologies. We develop a theoretical model that predicts that the impact of reducing liability risks for physicians on innovation may be positive or negative, depending on the characteristics of the technology. Empirically, we find that, on average, laws that limit the liability exposure of health care providers are associated with a significant reduction in medical device patenting. Tort reforms have the strongest impact in medical fields in which the probability of facing a malpractice claim is the largest, and they do not seem to affect the number of new technologies of the highest and lowest quality. Our results underscore the importance of considering dynamic effects in the economic analysis of tort laws.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Alberto Galasso","Hong Luo"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/694337","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-557634f1d6047e80","title":"Government intervention, land market, and urban development: Evidence from chinese cities","abstract":"This article investigates how government intervention in land market affects China's urban development, using data from prefecture‐level cities between 2000 and 2010. We find that government intervention enlarges the impact of positive productivity shocks on housing price appreciation, through mainly the government control over residential land supply. However, we find no significant evidence that high government intervention constrains population growth and leads to wage increase. Such patterns of urban dynamics can be explained by the fact that migrant workers are the driving force behind China's urbanization, but they have limited housing demand and are not well compensated.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Jipeng Zhang","Jianyong Fan","Jiawei Mo"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12353","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-55a3c046ffcf0f36","title":"Housing markets, expectation formation and interest rates","abstract":"Based on a behavioral stock-flow housing market model in which the expectation formation behavior of boundedly rational and heterogeneous investors may generate endogenous boom-bust cycles, we explore whether central banks can stabilize housing markets via the interest rate. Using a mix of analytical and numerical tools, we find that the ability of central banks to tame housing markets by increasing the base (target) interest rate, thereby softening the demand pressure on house prices, is rather limited. However, central banks can greatly improve the stability of housing markets by dynamically adjusting the interest rate with respect to mispricing in the housing market.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Carolin Martin","Noemi Schmitt","Frank Westerhoff"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000279","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-55b024b72c0ffd3c","title":"Do you have a choice?: Implications for belief updating and the disposition effect","abstract":"The present paper evaluates the importance of belief updating for the prevalence of the disposition effect – the reluctance to sell assets at losses as compared to gains. In particular, the present paper studies whether restricting choices in investment risk taking decisions motivates different learning from the decision outcomes and whether such differences in learning cause differences in the emergence of the disposition effect. The results show that investors learn from negative outcomes more like Bayesians if their risk-taking decisions are restricted. Causal mediation analysis reveals that such differences in learning increases the probability to sell after losses, which improves the overall investment performance. Compared to gains, the differences in learning after losses explain also why investors making active risk-taking choices are less likely to sell after losses as compared to gains, while the effect is reversed when choices are restricted. These findings suggest that restricting the discretion in decisions influences the way investors learn from decision outcomes and these differences in learning can explain puzzling differences in the risk-taking behavior of individual investors.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Kremena Bachmann"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102718","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-55b0ca2f7f68e005","title":"Siting and operating incentives in electrical networks: A study of mispricing in zonal markets","abstract":"The incentives electricity generators face in investment and output decisions hinge on market design. Under some zonal market designs, where profit-maximizing participants face a uniform regional price, achieving lowest-cost system-wide production can be impossible. Further, zonal designs can incentivize siting of intermittent renewables in inefficient locations behind network constraints, of concern for jurisdictions undergoing a clean energy transition. We develop measures of mispricing that compare the zonal prices generators receive to locational marginal prices that value congestion externalities from generator output. We apply these measures to show wind and solar generators are increasingly siting in constrained areas of the Australian network, and highlight sources of potential efficiency gains from adopting a nodal market design with locational marginal pricing.","wordCount":118,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Matthew Katzen","Gordon Leslie"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103069","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-55cf11205db375f0","title":"Are infant/toddler developmental delays a problem across rural China?","abstract":"Using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III (BSID-III), we examine the rates of developmental delays among children aged 0–3 years in four major subpopulations of rural China, which, altogether, account for 69% of China's rural children and 49% of children nationwide. The results indicate that 85% of the 3,353 rural children in our sample suffer from at least one kind of developmental delay. Specifically, 49% of the children have cognitive delays, 52% have language delays, 53% have social-emotional delays, and 30% have motor delays. The results suggest that these high rates are due to two main factors in the parenting environment. The first is micronutrient deficiencies, which are reflected in a high prevalence of anemia (42%). The second is an absence of interactive parenting inputs, such as storytelling, reading, singing, and playing. Although we find these inputs to be significantly and positively associated with better developmental outcomes, only a small share of caregivers engage in them. With this large and broad sample, we show that, if China hopes to build up enough human capital to transition to a high-income economy, early childhood development in rural areas urgently requires more attention.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Lei Wang","Wilson Liang","Siqi Zhang","Laura Jonsson","Mengjie Li","Cordelia Yu","Yonglei Sun","Qingrui Ma","Yu Bai","Cody Abbey","Renfu Luo","Ai Yue","Scott Rozelle"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.02.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-55d1ec61bc5bc168","title":"Does survey mode matter? Comparing in-person and phone agricultural surveys in India","abstract":"Ubiquitous mobile phone ownership makes phone surveying an attractive method of low-cost data collection. We explore differences between in-person and phone survey measures of agricultural production collected for an impact evaluation in India. Phone responses have greater mean and variance, a difference that persists even within a subset of respondents that answered the same question over both modes. Treatment effect estimation remains stable across survey mode, but estimates are less precise when using phone data. These patterns are informative for cost and sample size considerations in study design and for aggregating evidence across study sites or time periods.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Ellen Anderson","Travis J. Lybbert","Ashish Shenoy","Rupika Singh","Daniel Stein"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103199","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-55d81614edad4075","title":"Modeling R&D spillovers to productivity: The effects of tax credits","abstract":"How much stimuli that should be attributed to R&D investments crucially depends on how the benefits of R&D reverberate throughout the economy. An extensive literature has found major spillover effects from R&D investments from one industry to another. Using a macroeconomic model for a small open economy, we analyze how tax credits stimulate R&D through the user cost of capital and how it impacts the economy in general via knowledge flows from R&D capital. We find that a tax credit scheme that lowers the user cost of R&D capital, leads to a gradual increase in aggregate productivity. In the long run, the levels of output, real wages, and consumption are around one percent higher than the baseline.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Thomas von Brasch","Ådne Cappelen","Håvard Hungnes","Terje Skjerpen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105545","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-55ed2efbe890df6c","title":"Does the winner take it all? Federal policies and political extremism","abstract":"Whether citizens like or dislike federal policies often depends on regional differences. Because of geography, (economic) history or other path-dependent factors, certain regions are perceived to get more out of the union than others. We show that citizens, therefore, have a strategic incentive to elect Federal delegates that are more extreme than the representative voter. The intensity of such strategic delegation is U-shaped in expected benefits. The predictions of our model hence rationalise the voting differences we observe in the data between national and EU elections.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Gianmarco Daniele","Amedeo Piolatto","Willem Sas"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103986","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-55ee9a2911cf2369","title":"Women, Weather, and Woes: The Triangular Dynamics of Female-Headed Households, Economic Vulnerability, and Climate Variability in South Africa","abstract":"Existing gender inequality is believed to be heightened as a result of weather events and climate-related disasters that are likely to become more common in the future. We show that an already marginalized group—female-headed households in South Africa—is differentially affected by relatively modest levels of variation in rainfall, which households experience on a year-to-year basis. Data from three waves of the National Income Dynamics Survey in South Africa allow us to follow incomes of 4,162 households from 2006 to 2012. By observing how household income is affected by variation in rainfall relative to what is normally experienced during the rainy season in each district, our study employs a series of naturally occurring experiments that allow us to identify causal effects. We find that households where a single head can be identified based on residency or work status are more vulnerable to climate variability than households headed by two adults. Single male-headed households are more vulnerable because of lower initial earnings and, to a lesser extent, other household characteristics that contribute to economic disadvantages. However, this can only explain some of the differential vulnerability of female-headed households. This suggests that there are traits specific to female-headed households, such as limited access to protective social networks or other coping strategies, which makes this an important dimension of marginalization to consider for further research and policy in South Africa and other national contexts. Households headed by widows, never-married women, and women with a non-resident spouse (e.g., “left-behind” migrant households) are particularly vulnerable. We find vulnerable households only in districts where rainfall has a large effect on agricultural yields, and female-headed households remain vulnerable when accounting for dynamic impacts of rainfall on income.","wordCount":279,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Martin Flatø","Raya Muttarak","André Pelser"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-55f3b592d3a16c35","title":"Do tax audits have a dynamic impact? Evidence from corporate income tax administrative data","abstract":"Making use of a unique administrative data set consisting of the universe of administrative filings in Rwanda, this paper investigates the impact of tax audits on businesses’ reporting behaviour. The evidence suggests that tax audits have a positive impact on corporate income and corporate tax liabilities reported for three years after the start of the audit process. The results also suggest that the type of audit matters. While ‘comprehensive’ tax audits have a significant positive effect on compliance, ‘narrow-scope’ tax audits exhibit both a positive and a negative effect during a three-year period after the audit, with the net impact being negative. The implication of this, from a tax compliance perspective, is that ‘narrow-scope’ audits are ineffective and that doing more of those and less of comprehensive ones might have a negative impact on tax compliance. Effective tax compliance strategy therefore requires the careful evaluation of all types of audits.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Christos Kotsogiannis","Luca Salvadori","John Karangwa","Theonille Mukamana"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103292","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-55fb8b689df76d2a","title":"Farm family effects of adopting improved and hybrid sorghum seed in the Sudan Savanna of West Africa","abstract":"Uptake of improved sorghum varieties in the Sudan Savanna of West Africa has been limited, despite the economic importance of the crop and long-term investments in sorghum improvement. One reason why is that attaining substantial yield advantages has been difficult in this harsh, heterogeneous growing environment. Release in Mali of the first sorghum hybrids in Sub-Saharan Africa that have been developed primarily from local germplasm has the potential to change this situation. Utilizing plot data collected in Mali, we explain the adoption of improved seed with an ordered logit model and apply a multivalued treatment effects model to measure impacts on farm families, differentiating between improved varieties and hybrids. Since farm families both consume and sell their sorghum, we consider effects on consumption patterns as well as productivity. Status within the household, conferred by gender combined with marital status, generation, and education, is strongly related to the improvement status of sorghum seed planted in these extended family households. Effects of hybrid use on yields are large, widening the range of food items consumed, reducing the share of sorghum in food purchases, and contributing to a greater share of the sorghum harvest sold. Use of improved seed appears to be associated with a shift toward consumption of other cereals, and also to greater sales shares. Findings support on-farm research concerning yield advantages, also suggesting that the use of well-adapted sorghum hybrids could contribute to diet diversification and the crop's commercialization by smallholders.","wordCount":241,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Mélinda Smale","Amidou Assima","Alpha Kergna","Veronique Thériault","Eva Weltzien"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.01.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5600323cf08bf502","title":"Economic growth with endogenous economic institutions","abstract":"Unlike most existing studies on the endogenous institutions, literature on theoretical growth has traditionally considered institutions as exogenous. In this paper, a learn-by-doing-based growth model is adopted and integrated with endogenous institutions to study how economic agents’ incentives engage in institutional improvements or exploit institutional imperfections. From maximization of identical agent utility, the economic growth model includes capital, labor, technology, and institutions. The study is to analyze the effect of institutions on the stability of equilibrium, balanced economic growth path, and convergence rate in the process of economic growth. It is concluded that, firstly, improving institutions is a decisive factor for China’s high economic growth rate for the past years; secondly, improving institutions can increase the capital stock per unit of effective labor in steady state; thirdly, imperfect institutions can explain income difference among countries; and finally, technology plays a key role only under the conditions adapting to institutions.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Li Zhao","Yujing Chu","Tianruo Gao"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000536","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5625b84077d922f0","title":"Housing Wealth, Property Taxes, and Labor Supply among the Elderly","abstract":"We investigate the relationship between housing wealth, property taxes, and elderly labor supply using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Survey spanning the recent boom/bust housing cycle. When combined with MSA-specific house price indexes, the data provide plausibly exogenous variation in housing wealth, identified through within-MSA renter/homeowner comparisons. Our findings suggest that elderly households respond to variation in housing wealth and property taxes in the predicted opposing directions, that wealth influences labor supply to a lesser extent than factors like health and marital status, and that the effect of housing wealth on labor supply varies by gender and age.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Lingxiao Zhao","Gregory S. Burge"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/687534","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-562d8fe90e32d4f1","title":"The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany","abstract":"How did the 1918 Influenza pandemic affect elections in Weimar Germany? We combine a panel of election results (1893–1933) with spatial heterogeneity in excess flu mortality to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards leftwing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Stefan Bauernschuster","Matthias Blum","Erik Hornung","Christoph Koenig"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101648","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-56310c0ad7a4a5e0","title":"Testing the impossible: Identifying exclusion restrictions","abstract":"Method of moments estimation usually implies exploiting presumed uncorrelatedness of model disturbances and identifying instrumental variables. Here, utilizing non-orthogonality conditions is examined for linear multiple cross-section simultaneous regression models. Employing flexible bounds on the correlations between disturbances and regressors one avoids: (i) adoption of often incredible and unverifiable strictly zero correlation assumptions, and (ii) imprecise inference due to possibly weak or invalid external instruments. The suggested alternative form of inference is within constraints endogeneity robust; its asymptotic validity is proved and its accuracy in finite samples demonstrated by simulation. Next to offering an attractive alternative as such, it permits a sensitivity analysis of inference based on orthogonality conditions. Moreover, it yields statistical inference on the validity of exclusion restrictions regarding candidate external instruments, whereas these unavoidable restrictions were always supposed to be non-testable. The practical relevance is illustrated in a few applications borrowed from the textbook literature.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Jan F. Kiviet"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-56352a82307076e3","title":"Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap","abstract":"We study the effects of a credit crunch on consumer spending in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market model. After an unexpected permanent tightening in consumers’ borrowing capacity, constrained consumers are forced to repay their debt, and unconstrained consumers increase their precautionary savings. This depresses interest rates, especially in the short run, and generates an output drop, even with flexible prices. The output drop is larger with sticky prices, if the zero lower bound prevents the interest rate from adjusting downward. Adding durable goods to the model, households take larger debt positions and the output response can be larger.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Veronica Guerrieri","Guido Lorenzoni"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-563fc1378747e7ac","title":"Does improved storage technology promote modern input use and food security? Evidence from a randomized trial in Uganda","abstract":"We use panel data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) administered among 1200 smallholders in Uganda to evaluate input use and food security impacts of an improved maize storage technology. After two seasons, households who received the technology were 10 percentage points more likely to plant hybrid maize varieties that are more susceptible to insect pests in storage than traditional lower-yielding varieties. Treated smallholders also stored maize for a longer period, reported a substantial drop in storage losses, and were less likely to use storage chemicals than untreated cohorts. Our results indicate that policies to promote soft kernel high-yielding hybrid maize varieties in sub-Saharan Africa should consider an improvement in post-harvest storage as a complementary intervention to increase adoption of these varieties.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Oluwatoba Omotilewa","Jacob Ricker‐Gilbert","John Herbert Ainembabazi","Gerald Shively"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.07.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-56477b1662c59f65","title":"Information provision and energy consumption: Evidence from a field experiment","abstract":"Energy consumption and the residential real estate market are closely related, leading to a multitude of policy interventions targeted to reduce the carbon externality from the housing market. Feedback provision regarding household energy consumption is considered a low-cost strategy for promoting energy conservation. Although various studies investigate the impact of information feedback on energy consumption, less is known about the heterogeneity of these responses. In this paper, we report the findings from a field experiment where participants are exposed to consumption feedback through the use of in-home displays during two discrete stages. The results show that information provision reduces electricity consumption by around 20%, on average, relative to a sample of non-treated households. Importantly, we also show that this average effect significantly differs based on the time of day and across the treatment group. Most of the feedback effect occurs during off-peak hours, and clusters among households that are older and that are most focused on energy conservation.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Erdal Aydın","Dirk Brounen","Nils Kok"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-564a81011f218ab9","title":"Wars, Depression, and Fascism: Income Inequality in Italy, 1901-1950","abstract":"This paper presents yearly estimates of income inequality in Italy from 1901 to 1950. By constructing dynamic social tables, we comprehensively assess inequality across all elements of Italian society and compare Italy with other countries over the same period. In a context of declining inequality across Europe, interwar Italy reveals a trajectory at odds with consolidated narratives: a sharp increase of inequality during World War I, a reversal during 1918–1922, a renewed rise after the Fascist takeover, and new peaks during World War II. Our results allow us to identify sizeable short-term distributive shocks and discuss the political economy of fascist Italy, reinforcing a reinterpretation of interwar inequality trends in Europe and the regressive nature of fascist regimes.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["María Gómez León","Giacomo Gabbuti"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101715","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-564e068da68351df","title":"The Effect of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs on Opioid Utilization in Medicare","abstract":"The misuse of prescription opioids has become a serious epidemic in the United States. In response, states have implemented Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs), which record a patient’s opioid prescribing history. While few providers participated in early systems, states have recently begun to require providers to access the PDMP under certain circumstances. We find that “must access” PDMPs significantly reduce measures of misuse in Medicare Part D. In contrast, we find that PDMPs without such provisions have no effect. We find stronger effects when providers are required to access the PDMP under broad circumstances, not only when they are suspicious.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Thomas C. Buchmueller","Colleen Carey"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160094","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5655ea8b9fbc3eb2","title":"Fostering Patience in the Classroom: Results from Randomized Educational Intervention","abstract":"We evaluate the impact of a randomized educational intervention on children’s intertemporal choices. The intervention aims to improve the ability to imagine future selves and encourages forward-looking behavior using a structured curriculum delivered by children’s own trained teachers. We find that treated students make more patient intertemporal decisions in incentivized experimental tasks. The results persist almost 3 years after the intervention, replicate well in a different sample, and are robust across different experimental elicitation methods. The effects also extend beyond experimental outcomes: we find that treated students are significantly less likely to receive a low “behavior grade.”","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Şule Alan","Seda Ertaç"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699007","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-566069d423058afd","title":"Climate policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle","abstract":"This article summarizes insights from the 36th Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF36) on the magnitude and distribution of economic adjustment costs of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to emission reduction targets – so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – in order to combat global warming. The study suggests that aligning NDCs with the commonly agreed 2°C temperature target will induce global economic costs of roughly 1% in 2030. However, these costs are unevenly distributed across regions. Countries exporting fossil fuels are most adversely affected from the transition towards a low-carbon economy. In order to reduce adjustment costs at the global and regional level, comprehensive emissions trading which exploits least-cost abatement options is strongly desirable to avoid contentious normative debates on equitable burden sharing. Lump-sum recycling of revenues from emissions pricing, in equal amounts to every household, appeals as an attractive strategy to mitigate regressive effects and thereby improving the social acceptability of stringent climate policy.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Christoph Böhringer","Sonja Peterson","Thomas F. Rutherford","Jan Schneider","Malte Winkler"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105471","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-566f29c834296347","title":"Asset Return Dynamics under Habits and Bad Environment–Good Environment Fundamentals","abstract":"We introduce a “bad environment–good environment” (BEGE) technology for consumption growth in a consumption-based asset pricing model with external habit formation. The model generates realistic non-Gaussian features of consumption growth and fits standard salient features of asset prices including the means and volatilities of equity returns and a low risk-free rate. BEGE dynamics additionally allow the model to generate realistic properties of equity index options prices and their comovements with the macroeconomic outlook. In particular, when option-implied volatility is high—as measured, for instance, by the VIX index—the distribution of consumption growth is more negatively skewed.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Geert Bekaert","Eric Engström"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691450","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-568c60823f02989f","title":"Networks, Phillips Curves, and Monetary Policy","abstract":"This paper revisits the New Keynesian framework, theoretically and quantitatively, in an economy with multiple sectors and input‐output linkages. Analytical expressions for the Phillips curve and welfare, derived as a function of primitives, show that the slope of all sectoral and aggregate Phillips curves is decreasing in intermediate input shares, while productivity fluctuations endogenously generate an inflation‐output tradeoff—except when inflation is measured according to the novel divine coincidence index. Consistent with the theory, the divine coincidence index provides a better fit in Phillips curve regressions than consumer prices. Monetary policy can no longer achieve the first‐best, resulting in a welfare loss of 2.9% of per‐period GDP under the constrained‐optimal policy, which increases to 3.8% when targeting consumer inflation. The constrained‐optimal policy must tolerate relative price distortions across firms and sectors in order to stabilize the output gap, and it can be implemented via a Taylor rule that targets the divine coincidence index.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Elisa Rubbo"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta18654","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5690c9a2d40fb411","title":"Dynamically stable matching","abstract":"I introduce a stability notion, dynamic stability , for two‐sided dynamic matching markets where (i) matching opportunities arrive over time, (ii) matching is one‐to‐one, and (iii) matching is irreversible. The definition addresses two conceptual issues. First, since not all agents are available to match at the same time, one must establish which agents are allowed to form blocking pairs. Second, dynamic matching markets exhibit a form of externality that is not present in static markets: an agent's payoff from remaining unmatched cannot be defined independently of other contemporaneous agents' outcomes. Dynamically stable matchings always exist. Dynamic stability is a necessary condition to ensure timely participation in the economy by ensuring that agents do not strategically delay the time at which they are available to match.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Laura Doval"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4187","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-5697f7369cfe22f8","title":"Skill demand versus skill use: Comparing job posts with individual skill use on the job","abstract":"Skill requirements in a job post reflect an employer’s “wish list,” but do they also reflect skills used on the job by the hired worker? We compare skill measures derived from the text of online job posts with individual-level data from the Danish Labour Force Survey (LFS) in which participants report their main skills used on the job as free text. By identifying individual workers from the LFS who can be matched to a job post, we validate that the extensive margin skills measures derived from job postings data reflect main skills used on the job. Thus, using job postings data to analyze skill use on the job is generally a valid empirical strategy. However, we also show that heterogeneity in returns to skills is missed if only the extensive margin of skill demand is considered.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Moira Daly","Fane Groes","Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102661","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-56b72a03738d90f9","title":"Invoicing and the dynamics of pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK export prices around the Brexit referendum","abstract":"We provide micro-econometric evidence that, following the large and persistent sterling depreciation after the Brexit referendum, on impact, exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) was complete for transactions invoiced in producer currency and low for sales invoiced either in a vehicle or in the destination market currency. Yet these differences strikingly narrowed within six quarters. A weaker currency did not translate into a persistent gain in price competitiveness for UK exports. At a granular level we find that UK exporters invoice in multiple currencies—even when shipping a product to the same destination—and switch currencies over time. Remarkably, we fail to detect significant changes in the relative shares of invoicing currencies in response to the Brexit shock. Last but not least, we find that UK firms price-to-market, i.e., adjust markups to bilateral exchange rate and CPI movements, only when they invoice sales in the destination-market currency.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Giancarlo Corsetti","Meredith A. Crowley","Lu Han"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103570","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-56bc451eb590aea4","title":"Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility","abstract":"This article examines the nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying influence between crude oil prices and the US dollar (USD) exchange rate using the Hiemstra and Jones (HP) test, the Diks and Panchenko (DP) test and the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model. By applying the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm and the DCC-GARCH model, the effects of structural breaks in volatility of the two markets are also investigated. The empirical analysis indicates that, first, crude oil prices are the nonlinear Granger-cause of the USD exchange rate, but not vice versa. Second, the USD exchange rate exerts a stronger and more stable negative influence on crude oil prices in the short term, and the influence gradually weakens after 2012. Finally, ignoring structural breaks can increase the negative volatility correlation between the oil and USD exchange rate markets, which is particularly remarkable during the financial crisis.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Fenghua Wen","Jihong Xiao","Chuangxia Huang","Xiaohua Xia"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1321838","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-56be8bdef85508d2","title":"How Serious is the Neglect of Intra‐Household Inequality in Multidimensional Poverty and Inequality Analyses? Evidence from India","abstract":"Monetary poverty measures as well as most existing multidimensional poverty indices (MPI) assume equal distribution within the household and thus are likely to yield a biased assessment of individual poverty, and poverty by age or gender. We show that the direction of the bias of such household‐based assessments in measuring poverty or inequality among individuals depends on how these measures use individual data to determine the poverty status of households. We use data from the 2012 Indian Human Development Survey and compare a standard household‐based MPI to an individual‐level MPI. The poverty rate among women is 14 percent points higher than that of men in our individual MPI measure but almost the same when using the household‐based measure. 22 percent of males and 27 percent of females are misclassified as poor or non‐poor using the household‐based measure. We also show that intra‐household inequality is 30 percent of total inequality.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Stephan Klasen","Rahul Lahoti"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12491","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-56c9c859c48d5382","title":"What Should (Knightian) Economists Do? James M. Buchanan's 1980 Visit to Chile","abstract":"Although Milton Friedman and Arnold Harberger became involved with Pinochet's Chile in the mid‐1970s, an increasingly influential body of scholarship argues that James M. Buchanan was similarly eager to provide Pinochet's dictatorship with advice. Buchanan reportedly had a heavy influence on the development of Chile's 1980 Constitution and similarly helped to design Chile's binomial electoral system. Buchanan's seeming willingness to advise Pinochet's dictatorship provides a stark contrast to his longstanding advocacy of Frank Knight's view that democracy is “government by discussion” and Buchanan's oft‐repeated insistence that democratic consensus trumps economic expertise. This article draws upon a wealth of largely ignored archival evidence and Chilean primary source material to engage and evaluate whether Buchanan—a Knightian economist par excellence—abandoned his advocacy of “government by discussion” and provided early 1980s advice that helped Pinochet's regime of “institutionalized terror” (Valdes , p. 30) design a constitution that would chain any subsequent Chilean democracy.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Andrew Farrant"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12323","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-56cb623fa53c3226","title":"Sports‐led tourism, spatial displacement, and hotel demand","abstract":"We analyze the relationship between professional sports events and concerts held in LA's Staples Center and nearby hotel performance. Government‐led economic redevelopment projects often envision sports facilities as tourist magnets. Little evidence exists supporting links between sporting events and hotel demand. An empirical analysis exploiting exogenous daily variation in the timing of games and concerts from 2002 to 2017 shows a small positive impact on room revenue at hotels within one mile and larger room revenue decrease at hotels located one to 4 miles away. The overall impact on hotel room revenue and rooms rented was not positive. Nearby hotel room rates increased during NBA and NHL work stoppages. The city granted four new hotels built very near the arena exemptions from occupancy taxes for 20–25 years; these exemptions reduced hotel tax revenues by a minimum of $4.5 million annually and may not have been needed to spur new hotel development.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Yulia Chikish","Brad R. Humphreys","Crocker Liu","Adam Nowak"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12820","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-56ceff8e89ee30d8","title":"Transparency and distressed sales under asymmetric information","abstract":"We analyze price transparency in a dynamic market with private information and interdependent values. Uninformed buyers compete inter- and intra-temporarily for a good sold by an informed seller suffering a liquidity shock. We contrast public versus private price offers. With two opportunities to trade, all equilibria with private offers have more trade than any equilibrium with public offers; under some additional conditions, we show Pareto dominance of the private-offers equilibria. If a failure to trade by the deadline results in an efficiency loss, public offers can induce a market breakdown before the deadline, while trade never stops with private offers.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["William Fuchs","Aniko Öry","Andrzej Skrzypacz"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2237","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-56d51483c1b3ca23","title":"Can group farms outperform individual family farms? Empirical insights from India","abstract":"Is there an alternative model to small family farming that could provide sustainable livelihoods to millions of resource-constrained and often non-viable smallholders in developing countries? Could group farming constitute such an alternative, wherein smallholders voluntarily pool land, labour and capital to create larger farms that they manage collectively? In South Asia, for instance, over 85% of farmers are small and increasingly female. Potentially, group farming could provide them economies of scale, a dependable labour force, more investible funds and skills, and greater bargaining power with governments and markets. But can this potential be realised in practice? In particular, can group farms economically outperform small family farms? A rare opportunity to test this is provided by two experiments begun in the 2000s in the Indian states of Kerala and Telangana. Constituted only of women, the groups lease in land to farm collectively, sharing labour, the cost of inputs, and the returns. But the states differ in several respects, including the technical support the groups receive, and their institutional base, composition, land access and cropping patterns. Based on the author's primary sample surveys in both states, this paper compares the productivity and profitability of group farms with that of small individual family farms in the same state. Kerala's groups perform strikingly better than the predominantly male-managed individual farms, both in their annual value of output per hectare and annual net returns per farm, while in Telangana group farms perform much worse than individual farms in annual output, but are equivalent in net returns. In both states, groups do much better in commercial crops than in traditional foodgrains, where the largely male-managed individual farms, owning good quality land and with longer farm management experience, have an advantage. The factors underlying the differential performances of Kerala and Telangana, and the lessons learnt for possible replication, are also discussed. Overall, the paper demonstrates that group farming can provide an effective alternative, subject to specified conditions and adaptation of the model to the local context.","wordCount":329,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Bina Agarwal"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.03.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-56db02f4a4cc5ec1","title":"Economic and ecological trade-offs of agricultural specialization at different spatial scales","abstract":"Specialization in agricultural systems can lead to trade-offs between economic gains and ecosystem functions. We suggest and explore a conceptual framework in which economic gains can be maximized when production activities are specialized at increasingly broader scales (from the household to the village, region or above), particularly when markets for outputs and inputs function well. Conversely, more specialization likely reduces biodiversity and significantly limits ecosystem functions. When agricultural specialization increases and moves to broader scales as a result of improved infrastructure and markets or other drivers, ecosystem functions can also be endangered at broader spatial scales. Policies to improve agricultural incomes may influence the level of specialization at different scales and thus affect the severity of the trade-offs. This paper takes Jambi province in Indonesia, a current hotspot of rubber and oil palm monoculture, as a case study to illustrate these issues. We empirically show that the level of specialization differs across scales with higher specialization at household and village levels and higher diversification towards the province level. We discuss ways to resolve trade-offs between economic gains and ecological costs, including landscape design, targeted policies, and adoption of long-term perspectives.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Stephan Klasen","Katrin Meyer","Claudia Dislich","Michael Euler","Heiko Faust","Marcel Gatto","Elisabeth Hettig","Dian Nuraini Melati","I Nengah Surati Jaya","Fenna Otten","César Pérez‐Cruzado","Stefanie Steinebach","Suria Darma Tarigan","Kerstin Wiegand"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.01.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-56de910cd27a71b7","title":"A multi-agent model of misspecified learning with overconfidence","abstract":"This paper studies the long-term interaction between two overconfident agents who choose how much effort to exert while learning about their environment. Overconfidence causes agents to underestimate either a common fundamental, such as the underlying quality of their project, or their counterpart's ability, to justify their worse-than-expected performance. We show that in many settings, agents create informational externalities for each other. When informational externalities are positive, the agents' learning processes are mutually-reinforcing: one agent best responding to his own overconfidence causes the other agent to reach a more distorted belief and take more extreme actions, generating a positive feedback loop. The opposite pattern, mutually-limiting learning, arises when informational externalities are negative. We also show that in our multi-agent environment, overconfidence can lead to Pareto improvement in welfare. Finally, we prove that under certain conditions, agents' beliefs and effort choices converge to a steady state that is a Berk-Nash equilibrium.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Cuimin Ba","Alice Gindin"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.08.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-56fe6d4cfc1f4545","title":"Italy in the Renaissance: a leading economy in the European context, 1350–1550","abstract":"A well‐known debate on the Renaissance economy was held in this journal in 1962–4 between Roberto S. Lopez and Harry Miskimin on one hand and Carlo M. Cipolla on the other. More than half a century later, this topic can be reconsidered in the light of much wider information on the late medieval/early modern Italian economy. Using data on population, urbanization, prices, wages, and GDP, this article outlines the macroeconomic trends in central and northern Italy in the age of the Renaissance (1350–1550). The frequent plagues during the early Renaissance—that is, between 1348 and 1450—decimated the population, probably causing more deaths than in other European countries. Hence resources per worker increased and labour productivity, incomes, and standards of living improved remarkably. A favourable economic environment thus seems to have been a pre‐condition for the Renaissance in culture, art, and politics and the spread of new kinds of consumer demand. From the middle of the fifteenth century, living standards gradually worsened and eventually reached the low levels that had prevailed prior to the Renaissance.","wordCount":173,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Paolo Malanima"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12650","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5723e4f681dba0e3","title":"Intra-metropolitan spatial patterns of female labor force participation and commute times in Tokyo","abstract":"We explore intra-metropolitan spatial patterns of female labor force participation, and examine how they relate to commute times in Tokyo. The spatial patterns differ markedly by marital status and the presence of children. For married mothers, the spatial clusters of low participation and regular employment rates are largely located in the inner suburbs, many of which overlap with the spatial clusters of long male commute times. The spatial regression results indicate that for married mothers, a longer commute time is significantly associated with lower participation and regular employment rates, while for unmarried and childless married women, these associations are mostly nonsignificant. Among married mothers, the magnitude of the negative associations is greater for college graduates than for those with a high school education or less, suggesting that highly educated mothers are especially sensitive to commute times. We argue that the spatial transportation constraint intensifies the household division of labor, resulting in unique patterns for married mothers.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Mizuki Kawabata","Yukiko Abe"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.11.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5738f14e626183ed","title":"Geographic Market Definition in the Merger Guidelines: A Retrospective Analysis","abstract":"Since the initial Merger Guidelines in 1968, the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission have revised their merger enforcement screen over the course of six versions. This article examines the evolution of the geographic market component of the Guidelines and the economic implications of changing standards of market delineation on merger enforcement. Using an illustration from the beer industry, we chronicle the development of geographic market definition and its varying effects on merger enforcement over the past 50 years.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Kenneth G. Elzinga","Vandy M. Howell"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-018-9658-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5745b883b6929e5f","title":"Individual speculative behavior and overpricing in experimental asset markets","abstract":"A rich history of theoretical models in finance shows that speculation can lead to overpricing and price bubbles. We provide evidence that, indeed, individual speculative behavior fuels overpricing in (experimental) asset markets. In a first step, we elicit individual speculative behavior in a one-shot setting with a novel speculation elicitation task (SET). In a second step, we use this measure of speculative behavior to compose dynamic, continuous double auction markets in line with Smith et al. (Econometrica 56(5):1119–1151, 1988). We find significant higher overpricing in markets with traders who exhibited more speculative behavior in the individual SET. However, we find no such differences in overpricing when we test for alternative explanations, using a market environment introduced by Lei, Noussair, and Plott (Econometrica 69(4):831–859, 2001) where speculation is impossible. Taken together, our results corroborate the notion that speculation is an important factor in overpricing and bubble formation if market environments allow for the pursuit of capital gains.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Dirk‐Jan Janssen","Sascha Füllbrunn","Utz Weitzel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9565-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-57473d6d2257f9f9","title":"Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries","abstract":"This paper studies the causal effect of transport infrastructure on the spatial distribution of economic activity within subnational regions across a large number of developing countries. To do so, we introduce a new global dataset of geolocated Chinese grant- and loan-financed development projects from 2000 to 2014 and combine it with measures of spatial concentration based on remotely sensed data. We find that Chinese-financed transportation projects decentralize economic activity within regions, as measured by a spatial Gini coefficient, by 2.2 percentage points. The treatment effects are particularly strong in regions that are less developed, more urbanized, and located closer to cities.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Richard Bluhm","Axel Dreher","Andreas Fuchs","Bradley C. Parks","Austin Strange","Michael J. Tierney"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103730","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-574a2b3448d5cf19","title":"Risk Preferences and the Role of Emotions","abstract":"There is a large volume of research showing that emotions have relevant effects on decision‐making. We contribute to this literature by experimentally investigating the impact of four specific emotional states—joviality, sadness, fear and anger—on risk attitudes. In order to do so, we fit two models of behaviour under risk: the expected utility model and the rank dependent expected utility model, assuming several functional forms of the weighting function. Our results indicate that all emotional states mitigate risk aversion. Furthermore, we show that there are some differences across gender and participants’ experience in laboratory experiments.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Anna Conte","M. Vittoria Levati","Chiara Nardi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12209","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-576ab25cebb691d9","title":"Analysing decision behavior styles in contingent valuation: The latent class and the factor analysis","abstract":"A better understanding of respondents' decision behaviors in contingent valuation (CV) is essential to reveal the true preferences of the public for environmental goods or services. Although the theoretical foundation of CV is based on the assumption of the full rationality of respondents, the literature provides various evidence of limited or partial rationality. In a CV survey of air quality improvement in China, we identified non-rational decision behavior style by adopting the latent class analysis and factor analysis methods, both of which are based on a series of questions related to decision behaviors initially proposed by Frör (2008). The application of the latent class model proposes the identification of two or three classes, with at least one more analytical reasoning group significantly differing from the other group(s). The factor analysis approach allowed us to identify two decision behavior factors, i.e., the analytical reasoning factor and the non-analytical reasoning factor. Our estimation results show that the analytical reasoning style is positively correlated with willingness-to-pay (WTP). Furthermore, the mediation tests conducted in the WTP determination models reveal that simply including respondents' socioeconomic, knowledge and perception characteristic questions in the survey to collect the information does not ensure that all the information conveyed by people's decision behavior style is captured.","wordCount":207,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Hongyan Su","Jie He","Hua Wang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102363","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-577a62e18a4b4701","title":"Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France","abstract":"We study how firms’ price expectations and decisions are affected by carbon pricing, using a survey of French manufacturing firms. Exogenous variations in the price of carbon are obtained by high-frequency identification. A change in carbon price increases firms’ inflation expectations as well as their own expected and realized price growth. Initially, positive forecast errors emerge, but over time, the impact on price expectations proves to be more enduring than on actual price growth, leading to negative forecast errors in the medium- to long-run. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that firms’ responses to these carbon pricing shocks exhibit considerable heterogeneity. Low energy-intensive firms are worse at forecasting the effects of the shock on the evolution of their own prices and firms with narrower profit margins are less able to pass through the increase in energy costs to the prices of their final products. These findings align with models of information rigidities, shedding new light on how firms navigate and adapt to carbon pricing policies.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Jannik Hensel","Giacomo Mangiante","Luca Moretti"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103593","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5787e6d7e01f281d","title":"Sexual identity, poverty, and utilization of government services","abstract":"Previous literature has established that lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) people are at least as likely to be poor as heterosexual people, standing in contrast to myths of “gay affluence.” These findings have used datasets limited by either sample size or using partnership status to infer sexual orientation. Using U.S. data from the Household Pulse Survey, which allows us to identify large samples of individuals who self-identify as lesbian, gay, or bisexual, we find that bisexuals have lower incomes and are more likely to experience poverty, and bisexual individuals, gay men, and lesbian women are more likely to report financial hardship. Additionally, we find that LGB people utilize government assistance at higher rates than heterosexual people, even when allowing for selection into poverty status. We propose several explanations for these differentials, drawing on the program non-participation literature, and suggest that social network effects, lessened stigma, and increased reliance on public programs may explain these differences. Finally, we examine receipt of the enhanced child tax credit and find evidence that gay men and lesbian women with children were less likely to receive it than heterosexual men and women with children.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Cameron Deal","Shea Greenberg","Gilbert Gonzales"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01031-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-57899dc925e2d293","title":"Wage Flexibility under Sectoral Bargaining","abstract":"Sectoral contracts in many European countries set wage floors for different occupation groups. In addition, employers often pay a wage premium (or wage cushion) to individual workers. We use administrative data from Portugal, linked to collective bargaining agreements, to study the interactions between wage floors and wage cushions and quantify the impact of sectoral wage floors. Although wages exhibit a “spike” at the wage floor, a typical worker receives a 20% premium over the floor, with larger cushions for older- and better-educated workers and at higher-productivity firms. Cushions also allow wages to covary with firm-specific productivity, even within sectoral agreements. Contract negotiations tend to raise all wage floors proportionally, with increases that reflect average productivity growth among covered firms. As floors rise, however, cushions are compressed, leading to an average passthrough rate of about 50%. Finally, we use a series of counterfactual simulations to show that real wage reductions during the recent financial crisis arose through reductions in real wage floors, reductions in real cushions, and a re-allocation of workers to lower wage floors. Offsetting these effects was a rapid rise in education of new cohorts, which in the absence of other factors would have led to rising real wages.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["David Card","Ana Rute Cardoso"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac020","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-5792768d13853067","title":"Monopoly without a Monopolist: An Economic Analysis of the Bitcoin Payment System","abstract":"Bitcoin provides its users with transaction-processing services which are similar to those of traditional payment systems. This article models the novel economic structure implied by Bitcoin’s innovative decentralized design, which allows the payment system to be reliably operated by unrelated parties called miners. We find that this decentralized design protects users from monopoly pricing. Competition among service providers within the platform and free entry imply no entity can profitably affect the level of fees paid by users. Instead, a market for transaction-processing determines the fees users pay to gain priority and avoid transaction-processing delays. The article (i) derives closed-form formulas of the fees and waiting times and studies their properties, (ii) compares pricing under the Bitcoin Payment System to that under a traditional payment system operated by a profit-maximizing firm, and (iii) suggests protocol design modifications to enhance the platform’s efficiency. The Appendix describes and explains the main attributes of Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Gur Huberman","Jacob D. Leshno","Ciamac C. Moallemi"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab014","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-579a4e3906ece52c","title":"The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market","abstract":"The labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2012, jobs requiring high levels of social interaction grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the U.S. labor force. Math-intensive but less social jobs—including many STEM occupations—shrank by 3.3 percentage points over the same period. Employment and wage growth were particularly strong for jobs requiring high levels of both math skill and social skills. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team production where workers “trade tasks” to exploit their comparative advantage. In the model, social skills reduce coordination costs, allowing workers to specialize and work together more efficiently. The model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations, which I investigate using data from the NLSY79 and the NLSY97. Using a comparable set of skill measures and covariates across survey waves, I find that the labor market return to social skills was much greater in the 2000s than in the mid-1980s and 1990s.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David Deming"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx022","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-57a59bd53cd01c4b","title":"What Do Editors Maximize? Evidence from Four Economics Journals","abstract":"We study editorial decisions using anonymized submissions matched to citations at four leading economics journals. We develop a benchmark model in which editors maximize the expected quality of accepted papers and citations are unbiased measures of quality. We then generalize the model to allow different quality thresholds, systematic gaps between citations and quality, and a direct impact of publication on citations. We find that referee recommendations are strong predictors of citations and that editors follow these recommendations closely. We document two deviations from the benchmark model. First, papers by highly published authors receive more citations, conditional on the referees' recommendations and publication status. Second, recommendations of highly published referees are equally predictive of future citations, yet editors give their views significantly more weight.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["David Card","Stefano DellaVigna"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"A","allJels":["A","M"],"subfieldLabel":"General Economics / A","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00839","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-57a8f9bbeaac467a","title":"The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt","abstract":"We study the currency composition of sovereign debt in emerging economies through the lens of a model in which the government lacks commitment regarding debt and monetary policy. High levels of debt in local currency give rise to incentives to dilute debt repayment through currency depreciation. Governments tilt the currency composition of debt toward foreign currency to avoid inflationary costs and real exchange rate distortions, at the expense of forgoing the hedging properties of local currency debt. Our quantitative model is used to shed light on the recent dynamics of the currency composition of debt and on its cyclical behavior.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Pablo Ottonello","Diego Pérez"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-57ae77931bf81efc","title":"Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries","abstract":"This paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by applying the structural time series model. In addition to the economic variables of GDP and real electricity prices, the model accounts for population, weather, and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour. The resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks. In particular, the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy-related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers, possibly by education and marketing campaigns. Moreover, even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities—unless, that is, prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase (in absolute terms).","wordCount":193,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Tarek Atalla","Lester C. Hunt"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.027","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-57bb1fba23305aef","title":"Before an Analyst Becomes an Analyst: Does Industry Experience Matter?","abstract":"Using hand‐collected biographical information on financial analysts from 1983 to 2011, we find that analysts making forecasts on firms in industries related to their preanalyst experience have better forecast accuracy, evoke stronger market reactions to earning revisions, and are more likely to be named Institutional Investor all‐stars. Plausibly exogenous losses of analysts with related industry experience have real financial market implications—changes in firms’ information asymmetry and price reactions are significantly larger than those of other analysts. Overall, industry expertise acquired from preanalyst work experience is valuable to analysts, consistent with the emphasis placed on their industry knowledge by institutional investors.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Daniel Bradley","Sinan Gokkaya","Xi Liu"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12466","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-57bdf134b0bce0f8","title":"Global banking, financial spillovers and macroprudential policy coordination","abstract":"The transmission of financial shocks and the gains from international macroprudential policy coordination are studied in a two‐region, core–periphery model with a global bank, a two‐level financial structure and imperfect financial integration. The model replicates the stylized facts associated with global banking shocks, with respect to output, credit, house prices and real exchange rate fluctuations in recipient countries, as documented empirically. Numerical experiments, based on a parametrized version of the model, show that the gains from coordination increase with the degree of financial integration, which raises the scope for spillback effects from the periphery to the core, through trade and private capital flows. However, even when coordination is Pareto‐improving, the resulting gains may be highly asymmetric across regions.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Pierre‐Richard Agénor","Timothy P. Jackson","Luiz A. Pereira da Silva"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12475","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-57c7884f0adfd256","title":"Effects of unit-based pricing on household waste collection demand: A meta-regression analysis","abstract":"Reducing the quantity of waste is an objective pursued by an increasing number of governments. Pricing waste has been one of the most important tools used for that purpose, and the literature on the demand for household waste disposal shows a wide diversity of price elasticity calculations. We explore this issue by means of a meta-analysis on a database of 25 studies. This allows us analyzing which is the effect on the results of different data, model specification and (statistical) methods. We find no evidence that either treating prices as exogenous or including curbside recycling effects in the model influence price elasticity. There are some indications that price elasticities in the USA are more elastic, and that municipal data provide higher estimates than household data. We find that much of the variation in elasticities is associated with substantial methods; in particular it can be explained by the use of a weight-based system and by the pricing of compostable waste. In contrast, the bag-based system does not present a significant relation with elasticity. Finally, our results do not find evidence of publication bias, while they do indicate some evidence of the existence of a true empirical effect.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Germà Bel","R.H.J.M. Gradus"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2016.03.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-57c946c4ba79fba7","title":"The productivity and political radicalism of the Chinese cooperative movement","abstract":"The productivity and political incentive of the Chinese cooperative movement are still in controversy. Theoretically, the cooperative brings both scale effect and monitoring cost, and the free exit rights reduce the monitoring cost and raise the net revenue, but the radicalism lowers the effort input and the net benefit for insufficient labor incentives. Meanwhile, the provincial leaders with lower Party ranks will behave more radically in cooperative movement for promotion incentives. Using the provincial participation rate of all kinds of cooperatives from 1950 to 1956, we find that the temporary mutual aid groups perform the same as household farming; the regular mutual aid groups, elementary cooperatives, and advanced cooperatives experience increasing output loss. The Party secretaries of alternate members and non-members behave more radically in cooperative movement and thus are more likely to be promoted than the Party secretaries of full members. We confirm that the cooperatives had already triggered a productivity decline before Great Lead Forward that was controversial between Lin(1990) and Kung (1993), and we also clarify the disputes on the political radicalism in authoritarian China between Kung and Chen(2011) and Yang et al.(2014).","wordCount":186,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Pei Lu","Yuan Liu"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102357","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-57c999d981362f9a","title":"Marketplace Lending: A New Banking Paradigm?","abstract":"Marketplace lending relies on screening and information production by investors, a major deviation from the traditional banking paradigm. Theoretically, the participation of sophisticated investors improves screening outcomes and also creates adverse selection among investors. In maximizing loan volume, the platform trades off these two forces. As the platform develops, it optimally increases platform prescreening intensity but decreases information provision to investors. Using novel investor-level data, we find that sophisticated investors systematically outperform, and this outperformance shrinks when the platform reduces information provision to investors. Our findings shed light on the optimal distribution of information production in this new lending model.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Boris Vallée","Yao Zeng"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy100","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-57c9b0b7ce01a1cd","title":"Better off at home? Effects of nursing home eligibility on costs, hospitalizations and survival","abstract":"Encouraging and helping elderly to postpone a nursing home admission appears to be a win-win that keeps long-term care spending in check and is in line with the target population's preferences, but there is little evidence about its effects. We study the causal impact of nursing home admission eligibility using Dutch administrative data and exploiting variation between randomly assigned assessors in their tendency to [grant] for a nursing home admission. We find a drop in medical care use when eligibility is granted, especially in hospital admissions, while total healthcare spending is unaffected. This suggests that postponing an admission may not always be a win-win after all.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Pieter Bakx","Bram Wouterse","Eddy van Doorslaer","Albert Wong"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102354","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-57cb9816f76cb4c4","title":"Modeling infinitely many agents","abstract":"This paper offers a resolution to an extensively studied question in theoretical economics: which measure spaces are suitable for modeling many economic agents? We propose the condition of “nowhere equivalence” to characterize those measure spaces that can be effectively used to model the space of many agents. In particular, this condition is shown to be more general than various approaches that have been proposed to handle the shortcoming of the Lebesgue unit interval as an agent space. We illustrate the minimality of the nowhere equivalence condition by showing its necessity in deriving the determinateness property, the existence of equilibria, and the closed graph property for equilibrium correspondences in general equilibrium theory and game theory.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Wei He","Xiang Sun","Yeneng Sun"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1647","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-57d2735db565f921","title":"Melting ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route","abstract":"One consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia with Europe. This represents a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and average transportation days compared to the conventional Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of opening this route in a multi‐sector Eaton–Kortum model with intermediate linkages. We find remarkable shifts in trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic and a substantial drop in Suez traffic. Projected shifts in trade also imply substantial pressure on an already threatened Arctic ecosystem.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Eddy Bekkers","Joseph François","Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12460","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-57e5525a2cd9101e","title":"A general equilibrium approach to carbon permit banking","abstract":"We study the general equilibrium effects of carbon permit banking during the transition to a climate-neutral economy by 2050. To this end, we develop an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in which the business sector is regulated by a generic emission trading system (ETS). Firms are authorized to transfer unused permits from one period to the next (banking), but the reverse direction (borrowing) is prohibited. Allowing for positive banking gives firms the opportunity to smooth their permit demand along the business cycle. Applications inspired by recent European Union-ETS regulations underscore the critical role of permit banking in shaping policy outcomes. For example, the 2023 cap reform would result in a more significant reduction in both permit banking and carbon emissions , as well as a 40 % to 50 % increase in the carbon price compared to pre-reform projections, without substantial additional GDP loss by 2060. Importantly, forgetting about permit banking when assessing cap policies would lead to both a significant underestimation of the total macroeconomic effects and an inaccurate representation of the carbon emission trajectory.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Loick Dubois","Jean-Guillaume Sahuc","Gauthier Vermandel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103076","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-57f6b5a46dd1475f","title":"Integrating Material Stock Dynamics Into Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounting: Concepts, Modelling, and Global Application for 1900–2050","abstract":"Assessing progress towards environmental sustainability requires a robust and systematic knowledge base. Economy-wide material flow accounting (ew-MFA) is an established method to monitor resource use across scales and its headline indicators are widely used in policy. However, ew-MFA is currently limited by its empirical focus on annual flows of material and energy, because it neglects the pivotal role of in-use material stocks of manufactured capital. Explicitly integrating in-use stocks enables new insights into a range of Ecological Economics' topics, such as the biophysical assessment of socio-economic systems, the circular economy and stock-flow consistent scenarios. Herein, we conceptually and practically expand the ew-MFA framework towards jointly addressing material flows, in-use stocks of manufactured capital and waste, using a fully consistent dynamic model of Material Inputs, Stocks and Outputs (MISO-model). We review the stock modelling literature, propose a novel distinction of stock-driven versus inflow-driven approaches and situate the MISO-model as the latter. We then investigate the global dynamics of socio-metabolic flows and in-use stocks from 1900 to 2014, explore model sensitivities and quantify and attribute uncertainty. Two exemplary scenarios are presented. Through these innovations for ew-MFA, we enable a dynamic and comprehensive assessment of resource use, stocks and all wastes in the socio-economic metabolism.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Dominik Wiedenhofer","Tomer Fishman","Christian Lauk","Willi Haas","Fridolin Krausmann"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.09.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-57fb0aa2c0c47aec","title":"The economic impacts of the UK's eat out to help out scheme","abstract":"We evaluate the economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme on the food service sector. EOTHO was introduced during the COVID pandemic to stimulate demand by subsidizing the cost of eating out, with a 50 % discount Mondays to Wednesdays in August 2020. We exploit the spatial variation in participation using a continuous difference-in-differences approach and an instrumental variables strategy. We measure the effect on footfall using mobility data from Google and on employment using job posts from Indeed. Our estimates indicate that a one standard deviation increase in exposure to the EOTHO scheme increased footfall in retail & recreation by 2–5 %, and job posts in the food preparation & service industry by 6–8 %. These effects are transitory, and we do not find evidence of large spillover benefits to non-recreational activities or other sectors.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Nicolás González Pampillón","Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim","Henry G. Overman"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","M","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103682","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5802d8bcc5e114b0","title":"Business cycle fluctuations in Mirrlees economies: The case of i.i.d. shocks","abstract":"I consider a real business cycle model in which agents have private information about the i.i.d. realizations of their value of leisure. For the case of logarithmic preferences I provide an analytical characterization of the solution to the associated mechanism design problem. Moreover, I show a striking irrelevance result: that the stationary behavior of all aggregate variables are exactly the same in the private information economy as in the full information case. Numerical simulations indicate that the irrelevance result approximately holds for more general preferences.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Marcelo Veracierto"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105278","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5803f6fc9e1abc1f","title":"State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation","abstract":"We study state taxes as a potential source of spatial misallocation in the U.S.. We build a spatial general equilibrium framework that incorporates salient features of the U.S. state tax system, and use changes in state tax rates between 1980 and 2010 to estimate the model parameters that determine how worker and firm location respond to changes in state taxes. We find that heterogeneity in state tax rates leads to aggregate welfare losses. In terms of consumption equivalent units, harmonizing state taxes increases worker welfare by 0.6% if government spending is held constant, and by 1.2% if government spending responds endogenously. Harmonization of state taxes within Census regions achieves most of these gains. We also use our model to study the general equilibrium effects of recently implemented and proposed tax reforms.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Pablo Fajgelbaum","Eduardo Morales","Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato","Owen Zidar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-58222d62d82bec98","title":"The Long-Run Impacts of Same-Race Teachers","abstract":"Leveraging the Tennessee STAR class size experiment, we show that Black students randomly assigned to at least one Black teacher in grades K–3 are 9 percentage points (13 percent) more likely to graduate from high school and 6 percentage points (19 percent) more likely to enroll in college compared to their Black schoolmates who are not. Black teachers have no significant long-run effects on White students. Postsecondary education results are driven by two-year colleges and concentrated among disadvantaged males. North Carolina administrative data yield similar findings, and analyses of mechanisms suggest role model effects may be one potential channel.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Seth Gershenson","Cassandra M. D. Hart","Joshua Hyman","Constance A. Lindsay","Nicholas Papageorge"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190573","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-58285eaa4a80d59d","title":"The emerging international trade in hydrogen: Environmental policies, innovation, and trade dynamics","abstract":"Hydrogen produced from renewable energy and other carbon-neutral sources has the potential of becoming an important medium for storing and transporting energy, partially taking on the role that fossil fuels play to date. We develop a novel theoretical and empirical model of sequential trade based on long-term contracts with one or more fixed-capacity projects entering each period in a modified Nash-Cournot competition. We simulate the emerging international trade in hydrogen using calibrated demand, supply, transportation, and policy data, exploring a set of scenarios to determine which factors have significant influence—in particular environmental, innovation, and trade policies. Our findings suggest that hydrogen trade exhibits significant price dispersion and two-way trade as vintages of contracts overlap in a market defined by endogenous innovation and policy interventions. Trade costs and the mode of transportation (pipelines or ammonia conversion, possibly others) play a pivotal role and influence the relative share of hydrogen production types (green, blue, or turquoise). Trade policies emerge as a more essential determinant of hydrogen trade than carbon and innovation policies.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Werner Antweiler","David Schlund"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103035","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-58331a10ac3598e1","title":"Managing the spread of disease with mobile phone data","abstract":"While human mobility has important benefits for economic growth, it can generate negative externalities. This paper studies the effect of mobility on the spread of disease in a low-incidence setting when people do not internalize their risks to others. Using malaria as a case study and 15 billion mobile phone records across nine million SIM cards, this paper quantifies the relationship between travel and the spread of disease. The estimates indicate that an infected traveler contributes to 1.66 additional cases reported in the health facility at the traveler's destination. This paper develops a simulation-based policy tool that uses mobile phone data to inform strategic targeting of travelers based on their origins and destinations. The simulations suggest that targeting informed by mobile phone data could reduce the caseload by 50 percent more than current strategies that rely only on previous incidence.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Sveta Milusheva"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102559","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-583638a0e0972868","title":"Stability of preferences for ecosystem damage prevention: Evidence from a test-retest over five years","abstract":"The stability of people’s preferences for ecosystem services over long time periods remains underexplored. We examine the dynamics of willingness to pay (WTP) to prevent coastal ecosystem damage using two identical contingent valuation surveys administered to a high-quality Norwegian panel in 2015 and 2020. The 2020 sample includes new respondents and re-testers, yielding a large test-retest sample across a five-year period. We find evidence that neither mean WTP nor underlying preferences are temporally stable. Comparing the 2015 sample to new respondents in 2020, we estimate an increase in WTP driven by heterogeneity in both respondent characteristics and preference parameters. A modest decrease in WTP is estimated for the test-retest sample, which we ascribe to shifting preferences. Investigation of respondent-level dynamics in WTP highlights potential mechanisms behind the negative preference shift. Our study highlights important factors to consider when transferring stated preferences across long time periods, and demonstrates the need for future research on how environmental preferences evolve over time.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Martin Ørbeck","Henrik Lindhjem","Gorm Kipperberg","María L. Loureiro"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101569","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5849abe5ade391c3","title":"JUE insight: Air pollution and student performance in the U.S.","abstract":"The United States has seen a drastic shift in the fuels used for electricity production. We study the consequences of these changes on air pollution and test scores. Using data covering the near-universe of students and a shift-share instrument that interacts local fuel shares with national growth rates, we show that each one-unit increase in particulate pollution reduces test scores by 0.016 standard deviations. Our estimates indicate that pollution reductions from electricity generation raised nationwide test scores by 0.03 standard deviations. As pollution declines were largest in majority-black districts, the black–white test score gap fell by 0.01 standard deviations.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Michael Gilraine","Angela Zheng"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103686","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-585addaafb78cb1c","title":"Digital finance and household carbon emissions in China","abstract":"Sustained economic growth and environmental degradation are two of the key goals in the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). Digital finance provides an opportunity to simultaneously address the trade-off between the two goals. Based on data from CEADs, CNBS, CFPS, IDFPU, VIIRS and NPCGIS, this article examines the causal impact and transmission mechanisms of digital finance on consumption-based HCEs. To address the potential endogeneity, IV and IV-MA as well as HDFE models are applied in empirical estimates. Results show that digital finance has a positive impact on consumption-based HCEs. Mechanism analysis indicates that digital finance can increase HCEs through stimulating consumption scale, which is scale effect. Besides, digital finance can decrease HCEs through promoting greener consumption patterns, which is composition effect. On the whole, scale effect prevails composition effect. Our findings contribute to the literature on digital finance and green finance and have policy implications on common prosperity, not only for China, but also for other economies.","wordCount":156,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Xiaodi Qin","Haitao Wu","Rongrong Li"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101872","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-587397f4fa58fc48","title":"Contextual deliberation and the choice-valuation preference reversal","abstract":"Revealed preferences between lotteries can be asymmetrically reversed across choice and valuation. The ongoing debate is whether the procedure-invariance principle is violated. This research presents a parsimonious theory to reconcile asymmetric preference reversals with procedure invariance. When risk attitude is ex ante imperfectly known, preference-eliciting procedures can endogenously influence revealed preferences through affecting the incentive for information retrieval/acquisition (i.e., deliberation). As predicted, when lottery pairing was known, experiment participants exhibited substantially less asymmetric reversals by stating mean-preserving and more dispersed valuations. Therefore, the endogeneity of asymmetric preference reversals can be substantiated.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Liang Guo"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105285","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-58a11f15d588ef9b","title":"The effect of acute pain on risky and intertemporal choice","abstract":"Pain is a highly salient and attention-demanding experience that motivates people to act. We investigated the effect of pain on decision making by delivering acute thermal pain to participants' forearm while they made risky and intertemporal choices involving money. Participants (n = 107) were more risk seeking under pain than in a no-pain control condition when decisions involved gains but not when they involved equivalent losses. Pain also resulted in greater preference for immediate (smaller) over future (larger) monetary rewards. We interpret these results as a motivation to offset the aversive, pain-induced state, where monetary rewards become more appealing under pain than under no pain and when delivered sooner rather than later. Our findings add to the long-standing debate regarding the role of intuition and reflection in decision making.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Lina Koppel","David Andersson","India Morrison","Kinga Posadzy","Daniel Västfjäll","Gustav Tinghög"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9515-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-58a8840a2eabf9c9","title":"The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit: Reply","abstract":"Dahl and Lochner (2012) provides some of the first causal evidence of the effects of family income on child achievement using changes in the Earned Income Tax Credit. Unfortunately, a coding error in the creation of total family income affects the first stage estimates and inflates the instrumental variable (IV) estimates. Importantly, it does not affect the reduced-form estimates or alter statistical significance of the IV estimates. This response shows that correcting this error does not alter the core findings or main message of the paper.","wordCount":86,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Gordon B. Dahl","Lance Lochner"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161329","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-58ac7bf29732ae79","title":"What makes an opinion leader: Expertise vs popularity","abstract":"This paper studies learning through social networks in which agents update their beliefs by weighting those of their peers. We allow agents to pay little attention to peers with poor information at first, but more later on, as that peer acquires better information from more knowledgeable agents. We derive explicitly how social influence depends on agents' popularity (eigenvector centrality) and expertise (information precision) and show that even completely uninformed agents can contribute to social learning. In certain cases, providing better information to extremely popular agents may distract attention from the views of the experts, and lead society to worse assessments.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Theodoros Rapanos"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.01.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-58c15a0291783897","title":"Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: The Market for Lemons","abstract":"In this article, we study the emergence of an extractive institution that hampered economic development in Italy for more than a century: the Sicilian mafia. Since its first appearance in the late 1800s, the reasons behind the rise of the Sicilian mafia have remained a puzzle. In this article, we argue that the mafia arose as a response to an exogenous shock in the demand for oranges and lemons, following Lind's discovery in the late eighteenth century that citrus fruits cured scurvy. More specifically, we claim that mafia appeared in locations where producers made high profits from citrus production for overseas export. Operating in an environment with a weak rule of law, the mafia protected citrus production from predation and acted as intermediaries between producers and exporters. Using original data from a parliamentary inquiry in 1881–1886 on Sicilian towns, the Damiani Inquiry, we show that mafia presence is strongly related to the production of oranges and lemons. The results hold when different data sources and several controls are employed.","wordCount":169,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Arcangelo Dimico","Alessia Isopi","Ola Olsson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002205071700078x","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-58cd4542fbb39898","title":"On the economics of electrical storage for variable renewable energy sources","abstract":"The use of renewable energy sources is a major strategy to mitigate climate change. Yet Sinn (2017) argues that excessive electrical storage requirements limit the further expansion of variable wind and solar energy. We question, and alter, strong implicit assumptions of Sinn’s approach and find that storage needs are considerably lower, up to two orders of magnitude. First, we move away from corner solutions by allowing for combinations of storage and renewable curtailment. Second, we specify a parsimonious optimization model that explicitly considers an economic efficiency perspective. We conclude that electrical storage is unlikely to limit the transition to renewable energy.","wordCount":101,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Alexander Zerrahn","Wolf-Peter Schill","Claudia Kemfert"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.07.004","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-58d99e8a870d1f64","title":"The effects on inequality and mobility of exposure to Soviet Communism in Eastern Europe","abstract":"We compare inequality and social mobility trends in Eastern European countries exposed to Soviet Communist (SC) regimes with those not exposed, using similar welfare measures. We draw upon a rich retrospective dataset that collects relevant welfare measures across regimes including information on living space and self-reported health, and relevant inequality and mobility indices for ordinal and categorical data. Our results suggest evidence of comparable welfare inequality trends in countries exposed to SC and those unexposed. Although individuals exposed to SC enjoyed higher levels of social mobility, differences in inequality across countries exposed to different regimes were negligible. A plausible explanation lies in the countervailing role of the welfare state in countries not exposed to SC and the inefficiency of the bureaucratic allocation of private goods aimed at reducing inequality in countries exposed to SC.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Joan Costa‐Font","Anna Nicińska","Melcior Rosselló Roig"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-58e8db38c6bd82ce","title":"The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies","abstract":"General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible and poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth in a new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth overestimation. We call this phenomenon the Productivity J-curve. We apply our method to US data and find that adjusting for intangibles related to computer hardware and software yields a TFP level that is 15.9 percent higher than official measures by the end of 2017.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Erik Brynjolfsson","Daniel Rock","Chad Syverson"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180386","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-58fa92d21c57ef9e","title":"It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News","abstract":"We propose a direct measure of abnormal institutional investor attention (AIA) using news searching and news reading activity for specific stocks on Bloomberg terminals. AIA is highly correlated with institutional trading measures and related to, but different from, other investor attention proxies. Contrasting AIA with retail attention measured by Google search activity, we find that institutional attention responds more quickly to major news events, leads retail attention, and facilitates permanent price adjustment. The well-documented price drifts following both earnings announcements and analyst recommendation changes are driven by announcements to which institutional investors fail to pay sufficient attention.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Azi Ben-Rephael","Zhi Da","Ryan D. Israelsen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5900c9e5b6112b79","title":"The fiscal cost of weak governance: Evidence from teacher absence in India","abstract":"The relative return to strategies that augment inputs versus those that reduce inefficiencies remains a key open question for education policy in low-income countries. Using a new nationally-representative panel dataset of schools across 1297 villages in India, we show that the large public investments in education over the past decade have led to substantial improvements in input-based measures of school quality, but only a modest reduction in inefficiency as measured by teacher absence. In our data, 23.6% of teachers were absent during unannounced school visits, and we estimate that the salary cost of unauthorized teacher absence is $1.5 billion/year. We find two robust correlations in the nationally-representative panel data that corroborate findings from smaller-scale experiments. First, reductions in student-teacher ratios are correlated with increased teacher absence. Second, increases in the frequency of school monitoring are strongly correlated with lower teacher absence. Using these results, we show that reducing inefficiencies by increasing the frequency of monitoring could be over ten times more cost effective at increasing the effective student-teacher ratio than hiring more teachers. Thus, policies that decrease the inefficiency of public education spending are likely to yield substantially higher marginal returns than those that augment inputs.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Karthik Muralidharan","Jishnu Das","Alaka Holla","Aakash Mohpal"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.11.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5912293ed0a92277","title":"The ordering of historical returns and the cross-section of subsequent returns","abstract":"We show that the ordering of historical stock returns significantly predicts the cross-section of subsequent returns. More specifically, stocks with comparably high recent and low distant returns experience low subsequent returns and vice versa. Our new measure of chronological return ordering yields significant decile return spreads after accounting for a wide range of asset pricing factors. This finding holds for both a monthly and an annual formation period and is valid beyond micro-structure, reversal, and momentum effects. Further analyses on limits to arbitrage, investor attention, and informed option trading support a mispricing-based explanation for parts of the documented return predictability.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Hannes Mohrschladt"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106064","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59150e2953b93146","title":"Women’s right to property and the child quantity-quality trade-off: evidence from India","abstract":"We study the effects of a series of state and federal reforms that granted Indian women equal inheritance rights on the quantity and quality of children. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, we find that women who were affected by the state reforms had 0.4 more children. State reforms did not have any effect on children’s heights. To assess the impact of the federal reform, we use panel data on women and a novel treatment based on the timing of their fathers’ deaths. We find that women affected by the reform had on average 0.22 fewer children and had taller children on average. While the federal reform had no effect on the number of daughters born to this group, the number of sons born declined. Thus, we see evidence that granting property rights to women could potentially impact fertility decisions, children’s health outcomes, and gender imbalance.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Vaidehi Tandel","Arnab Dutta","Sahil Gandhi","Ashwini Narayanan"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00970-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-591a83b0e4d47933","title":"Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self‐Assessed Health","abstract":"The goal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was to achieve nearly universal health insurance coverage through a combination of mandates, subsidies, marketplaces, and Medicaid expansions, most of which took effect in 2014. We use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to examine the impacts of the ACA on health care access, risky health behaviors, and self‐assessed health after two years. We estimate difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences models that exploit variation in treatment intensity from state participation in the Medicaid expansion and pre‐ACA uninsured rates. Results suggest that the ACA led to sizeable improvements in access to health care in both Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states, with the gains being larger in expansion states along some dimensions. However, we do not find clear effects on risky behaviors or self‐assessed health.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Charles Courtemanche","James Marton","Benjamin Ukert","Aaron Yelowitz","Daniela Zapata"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12245","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-59234308349d5bf1","title":"Temperature variability and long-run economic development","abstract":"This study examines the effects of temperature variability on long-run economic development. To identify causal effects, a novel econometric strategy is employed, based on spatial first-differences. Economic activity is proxied by satellite data on nightlights. Drawing on climate science, the study distinguishes between temperature variability on three time scales: day-to-day, seasonal, and interannual variability. The results indicate that day-to-day temperature variability has a statistically significant, negative effect on economic activity, while seasonal variability has a smaller but also negative effect. The effect of interannual variability is positive at low temperatures, but negative at high temperatures. Furthermore, the results suggest that daily temperature levels have a non-linear effect on economic activity with an optimal temperature around 15 degrees Celsius. However, most of the estimated effects of variability cannot be explained with this non-linearity and instead seem to be due to larger uncertainty about future temperature realisations. The empirical effects can be found in both urban and rural areas, and they cannot be explained by the distribution of agriculture. The results indicate that projected changes of temperature variability might add to the costs of anthropogenic climate change especially in relatively warm and currently relatively poor regions.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Manuel Linsenmeier"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102840","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-593859e470698eb3","title":"General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence From Kenya","abstract":"How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one‐time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non‐recipient households and firms, and minimal price inflation. We estimate a local transfer multiplier of 2.5. We interpret welfare implications through the lens of a simple household optimization framework.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Dennis Egger","Johannes Haushofer","Edward Miguel","Paul Niehaus","Michael Walker"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17945","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-594c9727c5e182ad","title":"Optimal epidemic control in equilibrium with imperfect testing and enforcement","abstract":"We analyze equilibrium behavior and optimal policy within a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model augmented with potentially undiagnosed agents who infer their health status and a social planner with imperfect enforcement of social distancing. We define and prove the existence of a perfect Bayesian Markov competitive equilibrium and contrast it with the efficient allocation subject to the same informational constraints. We identify two externalities, static (individual actions affect current risk of infection) and dynamic (individual actions affect future disease prevalence), and study how they are affected by limitations on testing and enforcement. We prove that a planner with imperfect enforcement will always wish to curtail activity, but that its incentives to do so vanish as testing becomes perfect. When a vaccine arrives far into the future, the planner with perfect enforcement may encourage activity before herd immunity. We find that lockdown policies have modest welfare gains, whereas quarantine policies are effective even with imperfect testing.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Thomas Phelan","Alexis Akira Toda"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105570","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-59576752d7424634","title":"First-party selling and self-preferencing","abstract":"In this paper, I analyze the welfare effect of a vertically integrated gatekeeper platform selling its own first-party product, i.e., first-party selling, as well as the platform's incentive to favor the first-party product in the product recommendations it makes, i.e., self-preferencing. I find that, irrespective of self-preferencing, both consumer welfare and platform revenue are higher under first-party selling because first-party selling mitigates double marginalization. Additionally, third-party product prices are lower in expected terms under first-party selling, either because the platform reduces the commission fee (with self-preferencing) or downstream competition is fiercer (without self-preferencing). Finally, I show that both consumers and the platform are better off if the platform commits not to engage in self-preferencing.","wordCount":114,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Florian Dendorfer"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103098","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-596bc6803943b39b","title":"Energy transition and climate change abatement: A macroeconomic analysis","abstract":"The paper integrates the characteristics of regenerative energies into a dynamic macroeconomic model with climate change. Learning and economies of scale in new energy moderate the cost of emissions reductions and increase the speed of decarbonization. I provide closed-form analytical solutions for the development of regenerative energies, emissions, consumption, and population. The elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs, stringency of climate policy, and potential raw material scarcity constitute critical conditions for reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. I find that a timely carbon phase-out requires sufficient substitution in the energy sector, continued learning and scale effects in regenerative energies, and active climate policy, which is indispensable even with enormous cost degression of regenerative energies. Raw material scarcity induced by regenerative energy use slows down the transition but can be overcompensated by more stringent climate policy at a moderate economic cost.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Lucas Bretschger"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101423","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-598e4ad03a5a8bdb","title":"Does gender of firm ownership matter? Female entrepreneurs and the gender pay gap","abstract":"We examine how the gender of business owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is—starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12%—two to three percentage points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role in the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses with male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10% also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others—firm managers—determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Alexander S. Kritikos","Mika Maliranta","Veera Nippala","Satu Nurmi"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01030-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59946edcd08deebc","title":"Geography, Transportation, and Endogenous Trade Costs","abstract":"In this paper, we study the role of the transportation sector in world trade. We build a spatial model that centers on the interaction of the market for (oceanic) transportation services and the market for world trade in goods. The model delivers equilibrium trade flows, as well as equilibrium trade costs (shipping prices). Using detailed data on vessel movements and shipping prices, we document novel facts about shipping patterns; we then flexibly estimate our model. We use this setup to demonstrate that the transportation sector (i) attenuates differences in the comparative advantage across countries; (ii) generates network effects in trade costs; and (iii) dampens the impact of shocks on trade flows. These three mechanisms reveal a new role for geography in international trade that was previously concealed by the frequently‐used assumption of exogenous trade costs. Finally, we illustrate how our setup can be used for policy analysis by evaluating the impact of future and existing infrastructure projects (e.g., Northwest Passage, Panama Canal).","wordCount":162,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Giulia Brancaccio","Myrto Kalouptsidi","Theodore Papageorgiou"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15455","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-59b3ac78f5c645a8","title":"The Modern Mutual Fund Family","abstract":"Modern mutual fund families include more than active mutual funds (AMFs). AMFs in families with greater index mutual fund (IMF) presence generate higher category-adjusted gross returns. Performance is positively related to the levels of passive and active fees, suggesting moral hazard. Intrafamily competition from IMFs in the same Morningstar category incentivizes managers to exert effort. Financial resources do not contribute to the performance effect. Cross-trading with IMFs occurs with some positive effect on performance. ETFs have no impact on performance. IMFs reduce flow-performance sensitivity and flow volatility of AMFs in the family. IMFs and ETFs uniquely contribute to expense pressure.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Caitlin D. Dannhauser","Harold D. Spilker"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.02.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59c1455b72691b35","title":"The relative efficacy of price announcements and express communication for collusion: Experimental findings","abstract":"This study conducts experiments to determine the modes of communication that are able to produce and sustain collusion and how the efficacy of communication depends on market structure. Two communication treatments are considered: non-binding price announcements and unrestricted written communication. We find that price announcements are conducive to coordinating on a high price but only under duopoly and when firms are symmetric. The standard experimental finding that collusion without communication is rare when there are more than two firms is shown to be robust to allowing firms to make price announcements. When firms are asymmetric, price announcements do result in higher prices but there is little evidence that firms are coordinating their behavior. When firms are allowed to engage in unrestricted written communication, coordination on high prices occurs for all market structures. We find that the incremental value to express communication (compared to price announcements) is greater when firms are asymmetric and there are more firms.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Joseph E. Harrington","Roberto Hernán González","Praveen Kujal"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.05.014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-59d4befaa25a4c61","title":"What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?","abstract":"We address two empirical issues related to the long end of the yield curve based on euro swap rates. First, for maturities longer than 20 years we find evidence for an ‘excess’ downward slope that cannot be explained by convexity. Second, volatility at the very long end of the yield curve is larger than predicted by no-arbitrage models. We construct a model-based arbitrage-free extrapolation of the yield-curve and compare it to the regulatory discount curve. Because of near-zero mean reversion, there is no convergence towards an ‘ultimate forward rate’ and convexity effects cause the arbitrage-free extrapolations to have slightly downward sloping curves. The low level of mean-reversion also implies that the volatility of long-term rates does not decline relative to the 20-year volatility. Therefore, we conclude that the mean-reversion and resulting smoothing adopted by the regulatory curve is much too strong.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Anne Balter","Antoon Pelsser","Peter C. Schotman"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.03.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59dadbd3eb316ac3","title":"New road infrastructure: The effects on firms","abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of new road infrastructure on employment and labour productivity using firm level longitudinal data for Britain. Exposure to transport improvements is measured through changes in accessibility, calculated at a detailed geographical scale from changes in minimum journey times along the road network. These changes are induced by the construction of new road link schemes. We deal with the potential endogeneity of scheme location by identifying the effects of changes in accessibility from variation across small-scale geographical areas close to the scheme. We find substantial positive effects on area level employment and number of establishments. For existing establishments we find increases in output per worker, wages and use of intermediate inputs. A plausible interpretation is that new transport infrastructure attracts transport intensive establishments to an area, and also leads to some reorganization of production in existing businesses.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Stephen Gibbons","Teemu Lyytikäinen","Henry G. Overman","Rosa Sanchis-Guarner"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.01.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59db6dd6c3b5050f","title":"Globalization of capital flows and the (in)disciplining of nations","abstract":"We analyze whether or not the globalization of capital, 'disciplines' governments and improves governance. We demonstrate that globalization affects governance, by increasing a country's vulnerability to sudden capital flight. This increased threat of capital flight can discipline governments and improve governance and welfare by placing countries in a 'golden straitjacket'. However, globalization may also 'overdiscipline' governments - resulting in a perverse impact on governmental incentives that catalyzes (mis)governance. Accordingly, the paper suggests a novel (and qualified) role for capital controls. Finally, we provide some evidence consistent with the predictions from our theoretical framework.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Arthur Blouin","Sayantan Ghosal","Sharun Mukand"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59dd9c6dbd431170","title":"Institutional and Legal Context in Natural Experiments: The Case of State Antitakeover Laws","abstract":"We argue and demonstrate empirically that a firm's institutional and legal context has first‐order effects in tests that use state antitakeover laws for identification. A priori, the size and direction of a law's effect on a firm's takeover protection depends on (i) other state antitakeover laws, (ii) preexisting firm‐level takeover defenses, and (iii) the legal regime as reflected by important court decisions. In addition, (iv) state antitakeover laws are not exogenous for many easily identifiable firms. We show that the inferences from nine prior studies related to nine different outcome variables change substantially when we include controls for these considerations.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Jonathan M. Karpoff","Michael D. Wittry"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12600","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-59f45ea0d6822ec3","title":"Finance Sector Wage Growth and the Role of Human Capital","abstract":"We reveal the pervasiveness of the finance sector pay premium, across all OECD countries, as well as all sub‐sectors and occupations within the UK financial sector. Moreover, the UK premium has continued to rise despite the financial crisis. We show that earnings increase faster with value added in certain sub‐sectors of finance, compared to the general economy, providing evidence of profit‐sharing in these sub‐sectors. Other possible explanations, such as workers with higher qualifications or better cognitive skills, or technological change and differing job characteristics, can explain some of the finance sector pay premium, but are not sufficient on their own.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Joanne Lindley","Steven McIntosh"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12155","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59f6eb4936438d81","title":"The long shadow of local decline: Birthplace economic adversity and long-term individual outcomes in the UK","abstract":"Does growing up in a high-economic adversity area matter for individual economic, cultural, and political views? Despite a significant focus upon the effect of birthplace on economic outcomes, there is less evidence on how local economic conditions at birth shape individual attitudes over the long-term. This paper links the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) from English and Welsh respondents with historic localised information on unemployment, our measure of economic adversity. Our results, which control for composition effects, family background, and sorting of people across places, show that being born into a high-unemployment Local Authority has a significant, long-term impact on individuals. Birthplace matters beyond economic outcomes, as being born into a Local Authority of high unemployment makes individuals believe in more government intervention in jobs, less progressive on gender issues, and less likely to support the Conservative Party.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Andrew McNeil","Davide Luca","Neil Lee"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103571","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-59fd88e086d33159","title":"Does Balance Among Areas of Institutional Quality Matter for Economic Growth?","abstract":"Countries with better institutions, as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World index, have greater prosperity, growth, and well‐being. However, the previous literature has ignored interrelationships among the subareas, instead implicitly assuming substitutability and independence. We hypothesize that when some areas are weak, better scores in other areas are not a simple substitute. We find that including a simple measure of the within‐country standard deviation among coexisting area scores results in a meaningfully significant improvement in the empirical growth specifications. Based on our findings, this should become routine practice in future empirical work. We also explore interactions among areas and find ones with legal system and property rights most important to include. These findings suggest a need to reconsider the implicit assumption of independence among area scores, as well as a balanced approach to institutional reform in practice. Improving the worst areas is more beneficial to growth.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["J. Brandon Bolen","Russell S. Sobel"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12428","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-59fe8334d72f1523","title":"How did consumers react to the COVID‐19 pandemic over time?","abstract":"Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the key policy instrument utilized to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper disentangles the effects of NPIs from that of the virus and looks at the specific channels through which the virus impacts consumption. Using geo-located transaction data, we find that consumers' behaviour towards the virus has explanatory power for the drop in consumption in the early stages of the pandemic. This effect disappears in the later stages of the pandemic, suggesting that consumers have adapted their behaviour. As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, consumers tended to make 'safer' consumption decisions, by avoiding crowded places.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["George Kapetanios","Nora Neuteboom","Feiko Ritsema","Alexia Ventouri"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12507","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-5a13ab42dc438f1f","title":"Fuzzy Differences-in-Differences","abstract":"Difference-in-differences (DID) is a method to evaluate the effect of a treatment. In its basic version, a \"control group\" is untreated at two dates, whereas a \"treatment group\" becomes fully treated at the second date. However, in many applications of the DID method, the treatment rate only increases more in the treatment group. In such fuzzy designs, a popular estimator of treatment effects is the DID of the outcome divided by the DID of the treatment. We show that this ratio identifies a local average treatment effect only if two homogeneous treatment effect assumptions are satisfied. We then propose two alternative estimands that do not rely on any assumption on treatment effects, and that can be used when the treatment rate does not change over time in the control group. We prove that the corresponding estimators are asymptotically normal. Finally, we use our results to revisit Duflo (2001).","wordCount":148,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Clément de Chaisemartin","Xavier D’Haultfœuille"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx049","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-5a4660d59561a1d3","title":"Choosing Between Different Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis","abstract":"The performance of information criteria and tests for residual heteroscedasticity for choosing between different models for time‐varying volatility in the context of structural vector autoregressive analysis is investigated. Although it can be difficult to find the true volatility model with the selection criteria, using them is recommended because they can reduce the mean squared error of impulse response estimates substantially relative to a model that is chosen arbitrarily based on the personal preferences of a researcher. Heteroscedasticity tests are found to be useful tools for deciding whether time‐varying volatility is present but do not discriminate well between different types of volatility changes. The selection methods are illustrated by specifying a model for the global market for crude oil.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Helmut Lütkepohl","Thore Schlaak"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12238","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5a484b97b32ae456","title":"Donation requests following a pay rise","abstract":"In this study, a field experiment was conducted to examine the effects of requesting a donation following a pay rise announcement. The experiment evaluated the effects of (1) unexpectedly requesting a donation either immediately after the pay rise announcement or a week after the announcement, and (2) informing the workers in advance about the forthcoming request for a donation. First, the likelihood of donation increased when the request was made soon after the pay rise announcement, compared with the situation in which workers did not receive a pay rise but received the same final wage. The likelihood of donation was reduced when the workers were asked for a donation a week after the pay rise announcement rather than immediately. These findings may be explained by either mood changes or mental accounting. Second, alerting the workers who were promised a pay rise to the forthcoming request a week earlier significantly reduced donations compared with an unexpected request. This finding suggests that subjects used the additional time to find excuses to donate less.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Santiago I. Sautua"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102518","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5a4c3c303d795a74","title":"Roads, competition, and the informal sector","abstract":"We examine the impact of competition from better connectivity to domestic markets on formal and informal firms. Combining geolocalized information on road improvements under a large infrastructure investment programme with data on manufacturing firms in Ethiopia between 2001 and 2013, we show that an increase in competition is associated with higher labour productivity, capital-intensity, investment in physical capital and wages in the formal sector. On the contrary, there is no associated increase in labour productivity or wages in the informal sector. In fact, increased competition results in lower capital-intensity and investment, a shift in composition towards workers without primary education and a lower likelihood of operating in the informal sector. We thus highlight that the benefits of infrastructure improvement programmes may not accrue uniformly in the economy.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Elena Perra","Marco Sanfilippo","Asha Sundaram"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103339","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5a6a351b25658444","title":"Crony capitalism, the party-state, and the political boundaries of corruption","abstract":"We build a model that puts together crony capitalism, the hierarchy of the Chinese communist party-state, and the decision-making process inside the Party Center. We show that inefficient economic institutions create local corruption that raises realized productivity, while generating rents that flow along the party-state hierarchy up to the provincial level, threatening the Center's control in potential crises. Although both stronger crisis control and higher economic performance help the Center's goal to stay in power, we show that given a general fat-tailed risk of crisis, the Center will maximize crisis control at the expense of the economy when choosing its tolerance of local corruption. Power structure and corruption within the Center and reciprocal accountability between central and provincial leaders are also analyzed. Our analysis suggests conditions under which China's communist regime will or will not deal with the existential threat presented by corruption.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Weijia Li","Gérard Roland","Yang Xie"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","P","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.02.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5a6ff7855b65cfcd","title":"Government contracts and labor investment efficiency","abstract":"This study investigates the impact of government contracts on labor investment efficiency in U.S. public firms between 2001 and 2019. We find that firms awarded with government contracts exhibit improved labor investment efficiency, characterized by reduced abnormal labor hiring, evident in both overinvestment and underinvestment issues. Government contracts are particularly beneficial for financially constrained firms, enhancing their ability to manage labor resources effectively. Additionally, the regulatory framework associated with government contracts reduces labor overinvestment, although it may exacerbate underinvestment where labor rights are weak. The political sensitivity of contractors also improves labor investment efficiency. However, this effect diminishes with contractors' increased bargaining power. Contrary to expectations, political connections and lobbying activities do not significantly alter the impact of government contracts on labor investment efficiency. This study highlights the nuanced role of government contracts in shaping labor investment practices and unravels the underlying mechanisms driving these outcomes, thus contributing to the literature on government contracts, corporate finance, and labor rights.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Pedro Monteiro","Masim Suleymanov"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102771","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5a7569fa6486f8c8","title":"The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality","abstract":"We build an endogenous growth model with automation (the replacement of low-skill workers with machines) and horizontal innovation (the creation of new products). Over time, the share of automation innovations endogenously increases through an increase in low-skill wages, leading to an increase in the skill premium and a decline in the labor share. We calibrate the model to the US economy and show that it quantitatively replicates the paths of the skill premium, the labor share, and labor productivity. Our model offers a new perspective on recent trends in the income distribution by showing that they can be explained endogenously.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["David Hémous","Morten Olsen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160164","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5a8c0a96e73a8b22","title":"Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe","abstract":"Starting in the early 1990s, countries in southern Europe experienced low productivity growth alongside declining real interest rates. We use data for manufacturing firms in Spain between 1999 and 2012 to document a significant increase in the dispersion of the return to capital across firms, a stable dispersion of the return to labor, and a significant increase in productivity losses from capital misallocation over time. We develop a model with size-dependent financial frictions that is consistent with important aspects of firms’ behavior in production and balance sheet data. We illustrate how the decline in the real interest rate, often attributed to the euro convergence process, leads to a significant decline in sectoral total factor productivity as capital inflows are misallocated toward firms that have higher net worth but are not necessarily more productive. We show that similar trends in dispersion and productivity losses are observed in Italy and Portugal but not in Germany, France, and Norway.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Gita Gopinath","Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan","Loukas Karabarbounis","Carolina Villegas‐Sánchez"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5a99ca323f594756","title":"Organized Crime, Violence, and Politics","abstract":"We develop a model explaining how criminal organizations strategically use pre-electoral violence as a way of influencing electoral results and politicians' behaviour. We then characterize the incentives to use such violence under different levels of electoral competition and different electoral rules. Our theory is consistent with the empirical evidence within Sicily and across Italian regions. Specifically, the presence of organized crime is associated with abnormal spikes in violence against politicians before elections-particularly when the electoral outcome is more uncertain-which in turn reduces voting for parties opposed by criminal organizations. Using a very large data set of parliamentary debates, we also show that violence by the Sicilian Mafia reduces anti-Mafia efforts by members of parliament appointed in Sicily, particularly from the parties that traditionally oppose the Mafia.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Alberto Alesina","Salvatore Piccolo","Paolo Pinotti"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy036","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-5a9d7ee43b2f627f","title":"Effects of r&d subsidies in a hybrid model of endogenous growth and semi-endogenous growth","abstract":"We explore R&D subsidies in a hybrid growth model which may exhibit semi-endogenous growth or fully endogenous growth. We consider two types of subsidies on variety-expanding innovation and quality-improving innovation. R&D subsidies on quality-improving innovation only have effects in the fully endogenous-growth regime, in which more subsidies cause an earlier activation of quality-improving innovation and increase the transitional/steady-state growth rate. R&D subsidies on variety-expanding innovation have contrasting effects in the two regimes. In the semi-endogenous-growth regime, more subsidies on variety-expanding innovation increase transitional growth but have no effect on steady-state growth. In the fully endogenous-growth regime, more subsidies on variety-expanding innovation continue to increase short-run growth but delay the activation of quality-improving innovation and reduce long-run growth. Increasing subsidies on variety-expanding (quality-improving) innovation makes the semi-endogenous-growth (fully endogenous-growth) regime more likely to emerge. Finally, we calibrate the model and find that under reasonable parameter values, the fully endogenous-growth regime is more likely to emerge.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Angus C. Chu","Xi‐Lin Wang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000334","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5aa0c65c49fc83cf","title":"Employee financial literacy and retirement plan behavior: A case study","abstract":"This article uses administrative data on all active employees of the Federal Reserve (FR) System to examine participation in and contributions to the Thrift Saving Plan, the System's defined contribution (DC) plan. We link to administrative records a unique employee survey of economic/demographic factors including a set of financial literacy questions. Not surprisingly, FR employees are substantially more financially literate than the population at large. Most importantly, financially savvy employees are also most likely to participate in their DC plan. Sophisticated workers contribute three percentage points more of their earnings to the DC plan than do the less knowledgeable, and they hold more equity in their pension accounts. We examine changes in employee plan behavior 1 year after employees completed a Learning Module about retirement planning, and we compare it to baseline patterns. We find that those employees who completed the Learning Module were more likely to start contributing and less likely to have stopped contributing to the DC plan postsurvey. In sum, employer‐provided learning programs are shown to significantly impact employee retirement saving decisions and consistent with a lot of other research, higher levels of financial literacy are found to have a beneficial impact on retirement saving patterns.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Robert L. Clark","Annamaria Lusardi","Olivia S. Mitchell"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5ab1b86b82b8145f","title":"The Decline of the US Labor Share Across Sectors","abstract":"We provide novel insights on the functional distribution of income in the postwar US economy, based on a Log Mean Divisia Index decomposition of the labor share by 14 sectors. We identify contributions from four components: real compensation, labor productivity, employment shares, and relative prices. The results are presented for the entire period as well as golden age (1948–1979) and neoliberal era (1979–2017), painting a detailed picture of structural changes. We find that (1) real compensation and labor productivity dominate; (2) manufacturing plays an important role in the recent decline of the labor share; (3) employment shifts toward service sectors with higher labor shares have buffered the decline; and (4) relative prices of services are increasing. We discuss these results in the context of Baumol’s and Lewis’s seminal contributions. Both theories build on the notion of coexistence of progressive and stagnant activities, which is documented in our sectoral decomposition.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz","Codrina Rada","Rudiger von Arnim"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12487","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5ab7312ec82f8854","title":"The Returns to Elite University Education: a Quasi-Experimental Analysis","abstract":"I take advantage of a discontinuity in the probability of admission to a highly selective private university to estimate causal returns to investing in elite university education. I use a newly assembled data set that combines individual administrative records about high school attendance, university admission, university attendance, and tax returns. I find a discontinuity in income of 38 log points at the admission cutoff. The fuzzy regression discontinuity estimate for the elite enrollment effect is 58 log points. This should be interpreted as the average treatment effect for students applying to the elite university who are close to the cutoff and chose to enroll. When I take into account the evidence that students enrolling in the elite university tend to make different field choices, the net institutional enrollment premium is 41 log points. Cumulated over 15 years, the net-of-tuition elite premium is €246,991. I explore potential channels explaining the sizeable enrollment effects and I find that students just above the admission cutoff are 15 percentage points more likely to complete a university degree, they are 26 percentage points more likely to graduate on time and attend university with substantially higher quality peers.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Massimo Anelli"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz070","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5abfce9bef482b72","title":"School closures and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan","abstract":"The spread of the novel coronavirus disease caused schools in Japan to close to cope with the pandemic. In response to the school closures, parents of students were obliged to care for their children during the daytime, when children usually were at school. Did the increase in the burden of childcare influence parents' mental health? Based on short panel data from mid-March to mid-April 2020, we explore how school closures influenced the mental health of parents with school-aged children. Using a fixed-effects model, we find that school closures led to mothers of students suffering from worse mental health compared to other females, while the fathers' mental health did not differ from that of other males. This tendency is only observed for less-educated mothers who had children attending primary school, not for those with children attending junior high school nor for more-educated mothers. The contribution of this paper is showing that school closures increased the inequality of mental health between genders and parents with different educational backgrounds.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Eiji Yamamura","Yoshiro Tsustsui"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00844-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5ac39739317c135f","title":"Institutions for the taking: property rights and the settlement of the Cape Colony, 1652–1750","abstract":"We examine the formation of property rights in land during the early settlement by the Dutch of the Cape Colony at the southern tip of Africa. After its founding in 1652 as a provisioning outpost for ships of the Dutch East India Company (VOC), the colonial government promoted settlement initially by granting land with well‐specified and enforced property rights in restricted zones near Cape Town. By 1714 it transitioned to accommodate rapidly expanding settlement by creating a weaker form of property rights, the loan farm, which was imprecisely defined and had limited government enforcement. We develop a profit‐maximizing monopsony model to explain the VOC's choice to transition from the better‐specified land [grant] the less well‐specified loan farm. We conclude that the decline in the population size and ability of the Khoikhoi, the Cape's original inhabitants, to organize effective resistance to the Dutch invasion was critical to the transition, as it lowered the costs of private enforcement of settlers’ territorial claims. The choice of property rights thus enabled and encouraged the rapid taking by European settlers of the western Cape of Africa for the expansion of the Dutch colony's pastoral economy.","wordCount":190,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Alan Dye","Sumner La Croix"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12817","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5ad65c62ebbfe590","title":"Do Two Electricity Pricing Wrongs Make a Right? Cost Recovery, Externalities, and Efficiency","abstract":"Economists favor pricing pollution in part so that consumers face the full social marginal cost (SMC) of goods and services. But even absent externalities, retail electricity prices typically exceed private marginal cost, due to a utility’s need to cover average costs. Furthermore, the SMC of electricity can fluctuate widely hour-to-hour, while retail prices do not. We show that residential electricity rates exceed average SMC in most of the US, but there is large geographic and temporal variation. This finding has important implications for pass-through of pollution costs, as well as for policies promoting dynamic pricing, alternative energy, and reduced electricity consumption.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Severin Borenstein","James Bushnell"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190758","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5adc3768a871bd1b","title":"Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence","abstract":"We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We motivate, develop, and estimate a model with an endogenous TFP mechanism that allows for costly development and adoption of technologies. Our main finding is that a significant fraction of the post-Great Recession fall in productivity was an endogenous phenomenon, suggesting that demand factors played an important role in the postcrisis slowdown of capacity growth. More generally, we provide insight into why recoveries from financial crises may be so slow.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Diego Anzoategui","Diego Comín","Mark Gertler","Joseba Martinez"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170269","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5af2cc4b3a308cd3","title":"Bayes correlated equilibrium and the comparison of information structures in games","abstract":"A game of incomplete information can be decomposed into a basic game and an information structure. The basic game defines the set of actions, the set of payoff states, the payoff functions, and the common prior over the payoff states. The information structure refers to the signals that the players receive in the game. We characterize the set of outcomes that can arise in Bayes Nash equilibrium if players observe the given information structure but may also observe additional signals. The characterization corresponds to the set of (a version of) incomplete information correlated equilibria, which we dub Bayes correlated equilibria. We identify a partial order on many-player information structures (individual sufficiency) under which more information shrinks the set of Bayes correlated equilibria. This order captures the role of information in imposing (incentive) constraints on behavior.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Dirk Bergemann","Stephen Morris"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1808","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-5b0160f95d8ecd50","title":"In the Shadow of a Giant: Medicare’s Influence on Private Physician Payments","abstract":"We analyze Medicare's influence on private insurers' payments for physicians' services. Using a large administrative change in reimbursements for surgical versus medical care, we find that private prices follow Medicare's lead. A $1.00 increase in Medicare's fees increases corresponding private prices by $1.16. A second set of Medicare fee changes, which generates area-specific payment shocks, has a similar effect on private reimbursements. Medicare's influence is strongest in areas with concentrated insurers and competitive physician markets, consistent with insurer-doctor bargaining. By echoing Medicare's pricing changes, these payment spillovers amplify Medicare's impact on specialty choice and other welfare-relevant aspects of physician practices.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Jeffrey Clemens","Joshua D. Gottlieb"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689772","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5b05bfadc45bac05","title":"From Quantity to Quality: Delivering a Home-Based Parenting Intervention Through China’s Family Planning Cadres","abstract":"A key challenge in developing countries interested in providing early childhood development (ECD) programmes at scale is whether these programmes can be effectively delivered through existing public service infrastructures. We present the results of a randomised experiment evaluating the effects of a home-based parenting programme delivered by cadres in China’s Family Planning Commission (FPC)—the former enforcers of the one-child policy. We find that the programme significantly increased infant skill development after six months and that increased investments by caregivers alongside improvements in parenting skills were a major mechanism through which this occurred. Children who lagged behind in their cognitive development and received little parental investment at the onset of the intervention benefited most from the programme. Household participation in the programme was associated with the degree to which participants had a favourable view of the FPC, which also increased due to the programme.","wordCount":143,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Sean Sylvia","Nele Warrinnier","Renfu Luo","Ai Yue","Orazio Attanasio","Alexis Medina","Scott Rozelle"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa114","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5b065e82e789fe48","title":"Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?","abstract":"The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call upon all countries to achieve 17 broad development goals by 2030. The SDGs are a central component of many national development plans and foreign aid strategies. While the SDGs have become a central aspect of development planning, how achievable are they under present conditions? This paper explores a dynamic “middle-of-the-road” baseline global development scenario (Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2) using an integrated assessment model (International Futures) to evaluate progress toward target values on nine indicators related to six human development SDGs. We find that, between 2015 and 30, the world will make only limited progress towards achieving those SDGs with our current set of policy priorities. Our study finds that across the variables explored here (nine indicators for 186 countries = 1674 country-indicators), 43 percent had already reached target values by 2015. By 2030, target values are projected to be achieved for 53 percent of country-variables. This paper highlights special difficulty in achieving targets on some SDG indicators (access to safe sanitation, upper secondary school completion, and underweight children) representing persistent development issues that will not be solved without a significant shift in domestic and international aid policies and prioritization. In addition, we highlight 28 particularly vulnerable countries that are not projected to achieve any of the nine human development related target values in a middle-of-the-road scenario. These most vulnerable countries (MVCs) must be the focus of international assistance.","wordCount":234,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Jonathan D. Moyer","Steve Hedden"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104749","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5b139c41b8989b82","title":"How Important Can the Non-Violation Clause Be for the GATT/WTO?","abstract":"The “non-violation” clause of GATT is Exhibit A for the proposition that international trade agreements are incomplete contracts. According to the terms-of-trade theory of trade agreements, it underpins the success of the GATT/WTO's “shallow integration” approach. Yet the observed role of the non-violation complaint is minimal. We develop a model of non-violation claims in trade agreements, demonstrate that it predicts a minimal on-equilibrium-path role for non-violation claims under reasonable parameter restrictions, and show that the non-violation clause may nevertheless play an important off-equilibrium-path role in the GATT/WTO.","wordCount":87,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Robert W. Staiger","Alan O. Sykes"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150139","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5b2dd5f21ca20166","title":"The sophistication of conditional cooperators: Evidence from public goods games","abstract":"We extend the study of behavioural types in voluntary contribution games, adapting the elicitation method of Fischbacher et al. (2001) to a broader range of economic and strategic incentives. Our results in the standard VCM game align with previous findings in many respects; in particular, we identify one-quarter of participants as a distinctive group of “strong” conditional cooperators. We provide an explanation for the behaviour of this group by tracking their contribution strategies as the financial incentives of the game vary. We find that conditional cooperators follow a sophisticated rule, matching contributions only when doing so leads to an overall welfare improvement. This favours an account of conditional cooperation based on social norm compliance, rather than confusion, inequity aversion, or warm-glow giving.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Francesco Fallucchi","R. Andrew Luccasen","Theodore L. Turocy"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.07.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5b2fca810000a996","title":"Communication in bargaining games with unanimity","abstract":"Communication has been shown to increase proposer power in multilateral bargaining settings that use majority voting rule via competition between non-proposers for a place in the coalition. In this paper we investigate whether communication affects bargaining outcomes and the bargaining process in settings in which the competition effect is not present. We study committees that use unanimity rule to pass allocations. We find that in these settings, communication has the complete opposite effect compared with the majority settings: under unanimity, communication eliminates the inefficiencies that are present in settings without communication and it shifts bargaining outcomes towards egalitarian allocations with no proposer power. Communication logs provide insights regarding the topics subjects discuss and communication content correlates with bargaining outcomes.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Marina Agranov","Chloe Tergiman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9571-6","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5b38c0f56efbca80","title":"Welfare implications of personalized pricing in competitive platform markets: The role of network effects","abstract":"This study explores the welfare impact of personalized pricing for consumers in a duopolistic two-sided market, with consumers single-homing and developers affiliating with a platform according to their outside option. Personalized pricing, which is private in nature, cannot influence expectations regarding the network sizes, inducing the platforms to offer lower participation fees for developers. Those lower fees increase network benefits for consumers, allowing the platforms to exploit these benefits through personalized pricing. Personalized prices are higher when the network value for developers is high, benefiting competing platforms at the expense of consumers. These findings offer policy insights on personalized pricing.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Qiuyu Lu","Noriaki Matsushima","Shiva Shekhar"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103200","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5b42d6e8837c5964","title":"Industry Compliance Costs Under the Renewable Fuel Standard: Evidence from Compliance Credits","abstract":"The renewable fuel standard (RFS), which requires oil refineries to blend ethanol into domestic fuel supplies, is a market-based policy that implements tradable compliance credits so as better to equalize compliance costs across firms. We exploit unanticipated regulatory announcements that caused major swings in the prices of these compliance credits to retrieve reduced-form estimates of how the RFS affects the stock prices of publicly-traded refining firms. Our analysis reveals no significant stock price response among smaller firms in our sample and a small but statistically significant price response among large refiners. These findings are relevant to policy in that they cast doubt on concerns that the RFS allows integrated refiners to abuse merchant refiners. Our findings also shed light on the necessity of small refinery exemptions, which are intended to shield small, financially vulnerable refiners from RFS compliance costs.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Arthur R. Wardle","Sherzod B. Akhundjanov"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10011-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5b493828f29badbf","title":"The effect of minimum wages on employment: A factor model approach","abstract":"This paper uses factor model methods to resolve issues in the minimum wage‐employment debate. Factor model methods provide a more flexible way of addressing concerns related to unobserved heterogeneity that are robust to critiques from either side of the debate. The factor model estimators produce minimum wage‐employment elasticity estimates that are much smaller than the traditional ordinary least squares ( OLS ) results and are not statistically different from zero. These results hold for many specifications and datasets from the minimum wage‐employment literature. A simulation shows that unobserved common factors can explain the different estimates seen across methodologies in the literature.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Evan Totty"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","C","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12472","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5b53eb8d3cd5316a","title":"The home bias in procurement. Cross-border procurement of medical supplies during the Covid-19 pandemic.","abstract":"Public procurement markets are often national despite a general agreement against national preferencing. I exploit shocks occurring during the Covid-19 pandemic to two important factors, crisis urgency, measured through local infection rates, and increased buyer discretion, to study home bias in public procurement. Two causal difference-in-difference analyses on novel data for medical supplies in Europe show that home bias is not inevitable. An increase in local infection rates by one standard deviation locally increases the share of cross-border procurement by 19.3 percentage points over a baseline of 1.5 percent. Also, deregulation that allowed for buyer discretion caused cross-border procurement to increase by more than 35 percentage points. A simple theoretical model systematizes these findings.","wordCount":114,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Philip Hanspach"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102976","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5b56884fc41a9757","title":"The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund","abstract":"Since 1982, all Alaskan residents have received a yearly cash dividend from the Alaska Permanent Fund. Using the Current Population Survey and a synthetic control method, this paper shows that the dividend had no effect on employment and increased part-time work by 1.8 percentage points (17 percent). A calibration of microeconomic and macroeconomic effects suggests that the empirical results are consistent with cash stimulating the local economy—a general equilibrium effect. Nontradable sectors have a more positive employment response than tradable sectors. Overall, the results suggest that a universal and permanent cash transfer does not significantly decrease aggregate employment.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Damon Jones","Ioana Marinescu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190299","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5b6013f81d03deef","title":"Presidential Address: Social Transmission Bias in Economics and Finance","abstract":"I discuss a new intellectual paradigm, social economics and finance —the study of the social processes that shape economic thinking and behavior. This emerging field recognizes that people observe and talk to each other. A key, underexploited building block of social economics and finance is social transmission bias : systematic directional shift in signals or ideas induced by social transactions. I use five “fables” (models) to illustrate the novelty and scope of the transmission bias approach, and offer several emergent themes. For example, social transmission bias compounds recursively, which can help explain booms, bubbles, return anomalies, and swings in economic sentiment.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["David Hirshleifer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12906","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5b85bde411e086b7","title":"Does childhood adversity affect household portfolio decisions? Evidence from the Chinese Great Famine","abstract":"We employ the 1959–1961 Chinese Great Famine as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the relationship between experiencing adversity in childhood and financial decisions in adulthood. Using data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey and the intensity of excess deaths during the Great Famine, results from our preferred two-part fractional regression model suggest that, for an additional excess death per thousand people during the Famine, cohorts who were in their infancy and early childhood during the Famine are 0.2–0.3 percentage points less likely to hold risky financial assets than other cohorts. We also find that, conditional on the decision to hold risky assets, those who experienced an additional excess death per thousand people during the Famine in their middle to late childhood hold 1.1 percentage points higher share of risky assets in their household financial portfolios than those who did not experience the Famine. We explore several potential mechanisms and find that financial literacy, risk-taking preferences and locus of control are channels through which childhood adversity in the famine years affects household portfolio decisions. Our findings are robust to a series of sensitivity checks.","wordCount":184,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Zhiming Cheng","Russell Smyth","Le Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102227","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5b88e9150d88e511","title":"Market fairness and efficiency: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange","abstract":"In 2015 the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) implemented Arrowhead Renewal improvements (ARI) that reduced latency from about one millisecond to less than 0.5 ms. Simultaneously, the ARI introduced new risk management functions to improve market fairness by reducing manipulative trading strategies. We find a dramatic improvement in market fairness as proxied by marking-the-close incidents, which declined by 61.19%. We find a much smaller improvement in market efficiency. Specifically, there was a reduction in the effective (quoted) spread of 6.45% (5.79%). The most dramatic improvement in market quality (fairness and efficiency) was for low-tick-size and high-market-capitalization stocks.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["David M. Kemme","Thomas H. McInish","Jiang Zhang"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106309","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5b950137164a075e","title":"Do fees matter? Investor’s sensitivity to active management fees","abstract":"Following the framework established by Berk and Green (2004), mutual fund inflows and fees should be uncorrelated at equilibrium. We empirically explore this relationship by investigating the temporal changes in fund fees and flows. Our fee metrics focus on active management services rather than diversification. We analyze the additional fee compared to passive alternatives and additional fee per unit of active management, along with the traditionally used total fee. Our analysis of global data reveals a negative time series correlation between both measures of active management fee and fund flows.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Trond Døskeland","André Wattø Sjuve","Andreas Ørpetveit"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101596","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5bb00c4a02e25985","title":"The effect of settler farming on indigenous agriculture: Evidence from Italian Libya","abstract":"What effect did the settlement of European farmers have on the indigenous agricultural sector during the colonial period? On the one hand, European immigrants imported skills and capital but, on the other, they took control of local resources. By looking at the short‐term effect of Italian farming in colonial Libya, I shed new light on this question. Through regression analysis on a novel village dataset covering the entire country, I show that, in 1939, proximity to Italian farms was associated with significantly lower land productivity relative to distant locations. Lower yields can be explained by the adoption of land‐extensive cultivation techniques, implemented by indigenous farmers to counteract a labour drain operated by Italian farms through factor markets. The combined mitigating effect of monetary wages and land‐extensive farming only partially compensated for the fall in income linked to reduced land productivity.","wordCount":140,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Mattia C. Bertazzini"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13166","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5bb2addfe97eb636","title":"Educational Investment Responses to Economic Opportunity: Evidence from Indian Road Construction","abstract":"The rural poor in developing countries, once economically isolated, are increasingly being connected to outside markets. Whether these new connections crowd out or encourage educational investment is a central question. We examine the effects on educational choices of 115,000 new roads built under India’s flagship road construction program. We find that children stay in school longer and perform better on standardized exams. Heterogeneity in treatment effects supports a standard human capital investment model: enrollment increases most when nearby labor markets offer high returns to education and least when they imply high opportunity costs of schooling.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Anjali Adukia","Sam Asher","Paul Novosad"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180036","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5bb2ba7bb8b4bddc","title":"Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: What We Know and How We Know It","abstract":"We describe research on the impact of health insurance on healthcare spending (\"moral hazard\"), and use this context to illustrate the value of and important complementarities between different empirical approaches. One common approach is to emphasize a credible research design; we review results from two randomized experiments, as well as some quasi-experimental studies. This work has produced compelling evidence that moral hazard in health insurance exists-that is, individuals, on average, consume less healthcare when they are required to pay more for it out of pocket-as well as qualitative evidence about its nature. These studies alone, however, provide little guidance for forecasting healthcare spending under contracts not directly observed in the data. Therefore, a second and complementary approach is to develop an economic model that can be used out of sample. We note that modeling choices can be consequential: different economic models may fit the reduced form but deliver different counterfactual predictions. An additional role of the more descriptive analyses is therefore to provide guidance regarding model choice.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Liran Einav","Amy Finkelstein"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5bb303c9dd8f5f09","title":"Volatility spillovers in commodity markets: A large t-vector autoregressive approach","abstract":"Prices of commodities have shown large fluctuations. A high volatility of one commodity today may impact the volatility of another commodity tomorrow. As such, agricultural and energy commodities are closely dependent due to the expansion of the biofuel industry. We study volatility spillovers among a large number of energy, agriculture and biofuel commodities using the vector auto regressive (VAR) model. To account for the possible fat-tailed distribution of the model errors, we propose the t-lasso method for obtaining a large VAR. The t-lasso is shown to have excellent properties, and a forecast analysis shows that the t-lasso attains better forecast accuracy than standard estimators. Our empirical analysis shows the existence of volatility spillovers between energy and biofuel, and between energy and agricultural commodities.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Luca Barbaglia","Christophe Croux","Ines Wilms"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104555","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5bc5a18aa279e607","title":"Labour market institutions and long term adjustments to health shocks: Evidence from Italian administrative records","abstract":"We investigate how labour market institutions shape the labour response to acute cardiovascular shocks in a highly regulated labour market over the long run. Using Italian administrative data that covers the history of employment, social security and hospitalization of workers, we exploit several identification strategies to remove bias from observable and unobservable confounders. Significant reductions in employment and labour income emerge in the short run and persist over time, with no evidence of re-entry in the longer run. No adjustment is detected in working hours or wages for those who maintain employment. While the Disability Insurance (DI) system contributes to insure workers against the consequences of health shocks, we offer new evidence on the value of employment protective institutions in strengthening unhealthy workers’ labour inclusion, in particular for blue-collar workers.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Irene Simonetti","Michele Belloni","Elena Farina","Francesca Zantomio"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102277","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5bc5f4689b3cb901","title":"Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock","abstract":"We develop a dynamic trade model with spatially distinct labor markets facing varying exposure to international trade. The model captures the role of labor mobility frictions, goods mobility frictions, geographic factors, and input‐output linkages in determining equilibrium allocations. We show how to solve the equilibrium of the model and take the model to the data without assuming that the economy is at a steady state and without estimating productivities, migration frictions, or trade costs, which can be difficult to identify. We calibrate the model to 22 sectors, 38 countries, and 50 U.S. states. We study how the rise in China's trade for the period 2000 to 2007 impacted U.S. households across more than a thousand U.S. labor markets distinguished by sector and state. We find that the China trade shock resulted in a reduction of about 0.55 million U.S. manufacturing jobs, about 16% of the observed decline in manufacturing employment from 2000 to 2007. The U.S. gains in the aggregate, but due to trade and migration frictions, the welfare and employment effects vary across U.S. labor markets. Estimated transition costs to the new long‐run equilibrium are also heterogeneous and reflect the importance of accounting for labor dynamics.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Lorenzo Caliendo","Maximiliano Dvorkin","Fernando Parro"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13758","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5bd0a6dc852766aa","title":"Unified china and divided europe","abstract":"This article studies the causes and consequences of political centralization and fragmentation in China and Europe. We argue that a severe and unidirectional threat of external invasion fostered centralization in China, whereas Europe faced a wider variety of smaller external threats and remained fragmented. Political centralization in China led to lower taxation and hence faster population growth during peacetime compared to Europe. But it also meant that China was more vulnerable to occasional negative population shocks. Our results are consistent with historical evidence of warfare, capital city location, tax levels, and population growth in both China and Europe.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Chiu Yu Ko","Mark Koyama","Tuan‐Hwee Sng"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12270","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5bd1abe361fbc3c9","title":"The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production","abstract":"Kilian and Park (2009) find shocks to oil supply are relatively unimportant to understanding changes in \\nU.S. stock returns.Weexamine the impact of both U.S. and non-U.S. oil supply shocks on U.S. stock returns \\nin light of the unprecedented expansion in U.S. oil production since 2009. Our results underscore the \\nimportance of the disaggregation of world oil supply and of the recent extraordinary surge in the U.S. oil \\nproduction for analysing impact on U.S. stock prices. A positive U.S. oil supply shock has a positive impact \\non U.S. real stock returns. Oil demand and supply shocks are of comparable importance in explaining U.S. \\nreal stock returns when supply shocks from U.S. and non-U.S. oil production are identified.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Wensheng Kang","Ronald A. Ratti","Joaquin Vespignani"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5becc6e175797efd","title":"Leverage constraints and investors' choice of underlyings","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of a 2018 intervention by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), which limits the amount of leverage that retail investors can take on their trading activities. While the intervention successfully reduced leverage-usage, investors shifted their trading activities to riskier assets in the process, consistent with the idea that leverage-constrained investors substitute leverage with riskier securities. Thus, the intervention was not as effective as the reduction in leverage suggests.","wordCount":74,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Matthias Pelster"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107150","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5bf510e2946da467","title":"Human Capital, Technology Adoption and Firm Performance: Impacts of China's Higher Education Expansion in the Late 1990s","abstract":"We exploit a policy‐induced exogenous surge in China's college‐educated workforce that started in 2003 to identify the impact of human capital on productivity. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy, we find that industries using more human‐capital intensive technologies experienced a larger gain in total factor productivity after 2003 than they did in prior years. Exploring the pathways from human capital increases to TFP growth, we find that these industries also accelerated new technology adoption, as reflected in the importation of advanced capital goods, R&D expenditure and capital intensity, as well as employment of more highly skilled individuals. The productivity gains were weaker for domestic private firms than for foreign‐owned firms.","wordCount":109,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Yi Che","Lei Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12524","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5bfa09891ee1f036","title":"Making sovereign debt safe with a financial stability fund","abstract":"We develop an optimal design of a Financial Stability Fund that coexists with the international debt market. The sovereign can borrow defaultable bonds on the private international market, while having with the Fund a long-term contingent contract subject to limited enforcement constraints. The Fund contract does not have ex ante conditionality, but requires an accurate country-specific risk-assessment (DSA), accounting for the Fund contract. The Fund periodically announces the level of liabilities the country can sustain to achieve the constrained efficient allocation. The Fund is only required minimal absorption of the sovereign debt, but it must provide insurance (Arrow-securities) to the country. Furthermore, with the Fund all sovereign debt is safe independently of the seniority structure; however, for the Fund, seniority may require a greater minimal absorption than a pari passu regime. We calibrate our model to the Italian economy and show it would have had a more efficient path of debt accumulation with the Fund.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Yan Liu","Ramón Marimon","Adrien Wicht"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","P","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103834","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5bfa9d5ced26d261","title":"Task-interdependencies between Generative AI and Workers","abstract":"Our paper formalizes a production function to give microeconomic foundations for the adoption of Generative AI (GAI) within workplaces. The production function accounts for task-interdependencies, the worker-GAI interaction and indistinguishability between human-created and AI-generated outputs. We show that workers and GAI represent two distinct but interdependent sides of the production, that jointly generate a network externality in learning that drives productivity. We find that in open learning organizations favoring the worker-GAI interaction, GAI should be matched to workers based on their ability to detect errors. We analyze configurations where the worker-GAI interaction is limited, referred as closed learning organizations, including firms banning the use of GAI, technological superclusters and emergence of small entrepreneurs innovating with GAI.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Emmanuelle Walkowiak"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111315","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c04c630bd9839da","title":"The influence of CSR on firm value: an application of panel smooth transition regression on Taiwan","abstract":"Previous studies on the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and firm value generally belong to one of the two opposing schools of thought: the social impact hypothesis and the shift of focus hypothesis. This study, however, proposes that the relationship between CSR and company value is non-linear and neither wholly positive nor negative. We employed the corporate social responsibility index (CRSI) to test this hypothesis. The panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model was used to analyse listed Taiwanese firms from 2010 to 2012 and calculate the value transition threshold of CSR, using CSRI as the transition variable. We then applied PSTR to determine whether CSRI shows a two-regime, non-linear relationship, as inferred by our model. Empirical findings show that the threshold value of CSRI is 13.082, thus, we concluded that investment in CSR does not contribute to enhancing company value until it exceeds the value transition threshold.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Roger C. Y. Chen","Chen‐Hsun Lee"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1262516","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5c0c2c14e7a640a4","title":"Flipping the Undergraduate Economics Classroom: Using Online Videos to Enhance Teaching and Learning","abstract":"The flipped classroom has been proposed as a teaching method with the potential to enhance student learning by removing much of the ‘‘transmission of knowledge’’ from the classroom and replacing this with active learning approaches that enable the assimilation of information. This article analyzes the impact of a flipped undergraduate economics course that leverages an existing suite of online lectures by Khan Academy. The study employs a quasiexperimental design to evaluate the impact of two different flipped treatments on an undergraduate microeconomics principles final exam. Student achievement is compared for students in (i) a “traditional” undergraduate course; (ii) a “complemented” (or partially flipped) classroom including traditional “mini” lectures complemented with online video lectures assigned as homework; and (iii) a flipped classroom. Results suggest that students in both of the flipped courses scored between 4 and 14 percentage points higher on set of common questions and a cumulative final exam.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Jill L. Caviglia‐Harris"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12128","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5c123226a8e7a295","title":"Targeted or Universal Coverage? Assessing Heterogeneity in the Effects of Universal Child Care","abstract":"We provide evidence on the distributional effects of Quebec’s universal child care policy. Our analysis uncovers substantial policy relevant heterogeneity in the estimated effect of access to subsidized child care across two developmental score distributions for children from two-parent families. Whereas past research reported findings of negative effects on mothers and children from these families, igniting controversy, our estimates reveal a more nuanced image that formal child care can indeed boost developmental outcomes for children from some households: particularly disadvantaged single-parent households. We present suggestive evidence that the heterogeneity in policy effects is consistent with differences in home learning environments.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Michael J. Kottelenberg","Steven Lehrer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690652","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5c15c055187dbc32","title":"Risky choice: Probability weighting explains independence axiom violations in monkeys","abstract":"Expected Utility Theory (EUT) provides axioms for maximizing utility in risky choice. The Independence Axiom (IA) is its most demanding axiom: preferences between two options should not change when altering both options equally by mixing them with a common gamble. We tested common consequence (CC) and common ratio (CR) violations of the IA over several months in thousands of stochastic choices using a large variety of binary option sets. Three monkeys showed consistently few outright Preference Reversals (8%) but substantial graded Preference Changes (46%) between the initial preferred gamble and the corresponding altered gamble. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) indicated that gamble probabilities predicted most Preference Changes in CC (72%) and CR (88%) tests. The Akaike Information Criterion indicated that probability weighting within Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) explained choices better than models using Expected Value (EV) or EUT. Fitting by utility and probability weighting functions of CPT resulted in nonlinear and non-parallel indifference curves (IC) in the Marschak-Machina triangle and suggested IA non-compliance of models using EV or EUT. Indeed, CPT models predicted Preference Changes better than EV and EUT models. Indifference points in out-of-sample tests were closer to CPT-estimated ICs than EV and EUT ICs. Finally, while the few outright Preference Reversals may reflect the long experience of our monkeys, their more graded Preference Changes corresponded to those reported for humans. In benefitting from the wide testing possibilities in monkeys, our stringent axiomatic tests contribute critical information about risky decision-making and serves as basis for investigating neuronal decision mechanisms.","wordCount":249,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Simone Ferrari-Toniolo","Leo Chi U Seak","Wolfram Schultz"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c2efb794599af7c","title":"Firm value in commonly uncertain times: the divergent effects of corporate governance and CSR","abstract":"Economic uncertainty disrupts firms’ ability to create value. Most related literature examines how various organizational characteristics affect value under extreme conditions – the global financial crisis. However, recent work in quantifying economic uncertainty now makes it possible to take a more nuanced approach in investigating the conditions under which this value reduction can be mitigated during more ‘commonly uncertain’ periods. In this paper we analyze the effects of corporate governance mechanisms and social responsibility investments on Tobin’s q across 13 years and 40 countries. Evidence suggests that shareholder-centric corporate governance policies restrict board and executive flexibility during uncertain times, and therefore stifle their ability to react effectively to adverse macroeconomic changes. We also find that CSR initiatives serve as insurance in that they preserve value under uncertainty by acting as a reservoir of social capital.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Richard Borghesi","Kiyoung Chang","Ying Li"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1597255","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5c34409373addb92","title":"Unprofitable Cartels: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in the UK","abstract":"I analyse the effect of collusion on profitability with the use of evidence from a natural experiment of policy reform: the introduction of anti-cartel legislation in the UK in the late 1950s. This caused an intensification of price competition in previously collusive industries but did not affect industries that had not been collusive. Three main results are established: First, a comparison of the two groups of industries shows that the breakdown of collusion had no significant overall effect on profitability in the long run—although it had a strong negative effect on firm numbers. Second, the larger was the decrease in firm numbers, the smaller was the decline of profitability in previously collusive industries; however, no such correlation exists in industries that were not affected by the cartel law. Third, most cartels did not restrict entry; but in industries where entry had been restricted, profitability rather than firm numbers decreased when collusion broke down. These results are consistent with theories that emphasise the role of entry conditions for profitability: Cartels are often unprofitable because of entry even when collusion is effective.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["George Symeonidis"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09942-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c3584ec68081fe1","title":"Dread and latency impacts on a VSL for cancer risk reductions","abstract":"We propose a structural relationship between the value of preventing a statistical cancer fatality and the value of statistical life (VSL) for risks of an instantaneous road accident fatality. This relationship incorporates a context effect reflecting both the illness or ‘morbidity’ associated with cancer fatality and the ‘dread’ or horror associated with the prospect of eventual death from cancer, as well as a latency effect that captures the discounting likely to arise because the onset of the symptoms of cancer typically occurs after some delay. We use a Risk-Risk trade-off study to validate this model by directly estimating the influence of context and latency effects upon the relative size of the VSL for cancer and for road accidents, confirming that both effects are significant and estimating their size using regression analysis. We show that morbidity accounts for the majority of the context premium. We use the elicited coefficients to reconstruct VSL estimates for a range of cancers characterised by their latency and morbidity periods.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Rebecca McDonald","Susan Chilton","Michael Jones‐Lee","Hugh Metcalf"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9235-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c3dd4dc8b3d5565","title":"<scp>Stay‐at‐home</scp> orders were issued earlier in economically unfree states","abstract":"Stay-at-home orders curtailed the individual liberty of those across the United States. Governors of some states moved swiftly to impose the lockdowns. Others delayed and a few even refused to implement these policies. We explore common narratives of what determines the speed of implementation, namely partisanship and virus exposure. While correlation exists, we show that the most consistent explanation for the speed of the implementation of these orders is the state's economic freedom. It was the economically unfree states that issued stay-at-home orders earlier.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Bryan C. McCannon","Joshua C. Hall"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12495","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5c434745b6cdc2e1","title":"Do patents really foster innovation in the pharmaceutical sector? Results from an evolutionary, agent-based model","abstract":"The role of the patent system in the pharmaceutical sector is highly debated also due to its strong public health implications. In this paper we develop an evolutionary, agent-based model of the pharmaceutical industry to explore the impact of different configurations of the patent system upon innovation and competition. The model is able to replicate the main stylized facts of the drug industry as emergent properties. We perform policy experiments to assess the impact of different Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) regimes changing the breadth and length of patents. Results tend to point against a strong patent system. Simulation experiments suggest that the extent and duration of patents shall, if anything, be set to minimum levels. This holds even when one assumes a strong response of R&D incentives to appropriability conditions and when taking into account information disclosure effects triggered by patents.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Giovanni Dosi","Elisa Palagi","Andrea Roventini","Emanuele Russo"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.039","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c4c9364d5127b93","title":"Corporate social responsibility and bank financial performance in China: The moderating role of green credit","abstract":"Most of the existing studies have ignored the moderating role of green credit in the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and bank financial performance. Using the data of listed banks in China from 2008 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of CSR on bank financial performance. Moreover, we document the mediating effect of green credit on their relationship. The results show that CSR would make a negative impact on bank financial performance in the short term. However, this relationship turns out to be positive in the long run. Besides that, green credit does play an important role in this relationship. Furthermore, we do a series of heterogeneity tests. Our conclusion would be useful both to the following researchers and the establishment of environmental policies.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Guangyou Zhou","Yongkun Sun","Sumei Luo","Jiayi Liao"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105190","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5c503fa0c0286734","title":"Coordinated Effects in Merger Review","abstract":"Coordinated effects are merger-related harms that arise because a subset of postmerger firms modify their conduct to limit competition among themselves, particularly in ways other than explicit collusion. We provide a measure of the risk of such conduct by examining the individual rationality of participation by subsets of firms in market allocation schemes. This measure of risk for coordinated effects distinguishes markets that are at risk from those that are not and distinguishes mergers that increase risk from those that do not. A market’s risk for market allocation by a subset of firms varies with the degree of outside competition, symmetry and strength of the subset of firms, buyers’ power, and vertical integration. We make precise the widely used but rarely rigorously defined notion of a maverick firm and provide foundations for a maverick-based approach to coordinated effects. In addition, we identify previously unrecognized trade-offs between unilateral and coordinated effects.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Simon Loertscher","Leslie M. Marx"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/714919","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5c51c06a906fdea8","title":"The identification region of the potential outcome distributions under instrument independence","abstract":"This paper examines the identifying power of instrument exogeneity in the treatment effect model. We derive the identification region of the potential outcome distributions, which are the collection of distributions that are compatible with data and with the restrictions of the model. We consider identification when (i) the instrument is independent of each of the potential outcomes (marginal independence), (ii) the instrument is independent of the potential outcomes and selection heterogeneity jointly (joint independence), and (iii.) the instrument satisfies joint independence and monotonicity (the LATE restriction). By comparing the size of the identification region under each restriction, we show that joint independence provides more identifying information for the potential outcome distributions than marginal independence, but that the LATE restriction provides no identification gain beyond joint independence. We also, under each restriction, derive sharp bounds for the Average Treatment Effect and sharp testable implication to falsify the restriction. Our analysis covers discrete or continuous outcomes, and extends the Average Treatment Effect bounds of Balke and Pearl (1997) developed for the dichotomous outcome case to a more general setting.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Toru Kitagawa"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.03.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c53da2857537876","title":"Does employment protection legislation affect employment and unemployment?","abstract":"The article analyses the impact of employment protection legislation (EPL) on labour market outcomes. Despite widespread reforms that have reduced employment protection, the evidence on the effects of such reforms is inconclusive. Using data from sixteen European countries over the period 1985–2019, we analyse the impact of EPL on the dynamics of employment, employees and unemployment rates. In contrast to existing studies, we analyse both the existence of a linear relationship between EPL and labour market outcomes and the existence of a non-linear relationship, as well as interaction effects between EPL and economic growth. Our results show that employment protection does not explain the changes in employment, employees and unemployment rates. Therefore, labour reforms that have reduced employment protection by reducing dismissal costs and facilitating the use of temporary contracts have not had the presumed positive effects on employment and unemployment rates.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Philip Arestis","Jesús Ferreiro","Carmen Gómez"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106437","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c77a331617b3e40","title":"Colonial legacies and wealth inequality in Kenya","abstract":"This article discusses the evolution of Kenya's wealth distribution from the late 1950s to the present. Utilizing previously untapped probate and administration sources, it measures the share of Kenyans leaving estates at death, and maps how this wealth-owning strata has changed over time. It shows a growth in African estates after independence, and by the 1980s roughly 8 % of Kenyans left estates at death, largely a consequence of land titling and land reform. Meanwhile, European estates dwindled as settlers divested. Since the 1990s, Nairobi-based estate-holders are growing in share, reflecting the importance of urban property to the portfolios of the wealthy. Measures of top wealth shares suggest high wealth inequality in both the late colonial period and the present, but today's wealth inequality is driven by the uneven distribution of housing wealth, more so than by agricultural land. These findings illustrate how a variety of colonial legacies influenced wealth accumulation in postcolonial Kenya.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Rebecca Simson"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101623","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-5c793e2dee322287","title":"The framing of nothing and the psychology of choice","abstract":"Zero outcomes are inconsequential in most models of choice. However, when disclosing zero outcomes they must be designated. It has been shown that a gamble is judged to be more attractive when its zero outcome is designated as “losing $0” rather than “winning $0,” an instance of what we refer to as the mutable-zero effect . Drawing on norm theory, we argue that “losing $0” or “paying $0” evokes counterfactual losses, with which the zero outcome compares favorably (a good zero), and thus acquires positive value, whereas “winning $0” or “receiving $0” evokes counterfactual gains, with which the zero outcome compares unfavorably (a bad zero), and thus acquires negative value. Moreover, we propose that the acquired value of zero outcomes operates just as the intrinsic value of nonzero outcomes in the course of decision making. We derive testable implications from prospect theory for mutable-zero effects in risky choice, and from the double-entry mental accounting model for mutable-zero effects in intertemporal choice. The testable implications are consistently confirmed. We conclude that prevalent theories of choice can explain how decisions are influenced by mutable zeroes, on the shared understanding that nothing can have value, just like everything else.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Marc Scholten","Daniel Read","Neil Stewart"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09313-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c825a7535ba6dd3","title":"Labour Market Responses to Immigration: Evidence from Internal Migration Driven by Weather Shocks","abstract":"We study the labour market impact of internal migration in Indonesia by instrumenting migrant flows with rainfall shocks at the origin area. Estimates reveal that a one percentage point increase in the share of migrants decreases income by 0.97% and reduces employment by 0.24 percentage points. These effects are different across sectors: employment reductions are concentrated in the formal sector, while income reduction occurs in the informal sector. Negative consequences are most pronounced for low‐skilled natives, even though migrants are systematically highly skilled. We suggest that the two‐sector nature of the labour market may explain this pattern.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Marieke Kleemans","Jeremy Magruder"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12510","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5c869290c950cc35","title":"JUE Insight: Urban flight seeded the COVID-19 pandemic across the United States","abstract":"We document large-scale urban flight in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Regions that saw migrant influx experienced greater subsequent new COVID-19 cases, linking urban flight (as a disease vector) and coronavirus spread in destination areas. Urban residents fled to socially connected areas, consistent with the theory that individuals sheltered with friends and family, or in second homes. Populations that fled were disproportionately younger, whiter, and wealthier. The association between migration and subsequent new cases persists when instrumenting for migration with social networks.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Joshua Coven","Arpit Gupta","Iris Yao"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103489","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5c93d41ec1affac1","title":"Quantifying spillovers of coordinated investment stimulus in the EU","abstract":"In response to the recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU-wide macroeconomic policy has launched an unprecedented coordinated fiscal expansion across the EU (Next Generation EU or NGEU), financed by issuing common debt. Given NGEU’s nature, it is essential to take fiscal spillovers into consideration when assessing the overall macroeconomic effects of this fiscal expansion. We quantify the effects of the additional public investment for all Member States in a rich macro-model with a trade structure. Our model suggests that, on average, GDP effects are around one-third larger when explicitly accounting for the spillover effects from individual-country measures. For small open economies with smaller NGEU allocations, spillover effects account for the bulk of the GDP impact. We also quantify key transmission channels.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Philipp Pfeiffer","János Varga","Jan in ’t Veld"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000487","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5ca348b5c2573a90","title":"Your room is ready: Tourism and urban revival","abstract":"Tourism is an essential sector of the global economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. Despite its importance, our understanding of its impact on urban economic activity remains limited. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of tourism on urban transformation using a dataset of hotel openings in Madrid from 2001–2010. I show that hotel openings positively impact the number of establishments and employment by using the number of protected buildings as an instrumental variable to account for the non-random distribution of hotel openings. Interestingly, hotel openings contribute to changes in the composition of the economic activities and the business structures, enhancing tourist-oriented corporate-owned businesses over other individual-owned companies. Finally, economic effects extend to the real estate market, increasing rental prices and residential investment.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Alberto de Miguel Hidalgo"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104059","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5cb635d81d2c52ff","title":"A better ride: New evidence on travel and the quality of roads in England and Wales, 1660-1820","abstract":"1 1 Data for this paper was created thanks to grants from: (1) The Economic and social research council, The Occupational Structure of Nineteenth Century Britain, [grant]; (2) The Leverhulme Trust, The Occupational Structure of England and Wales c.1379-c1729; (3) the Leverhulme Trust, Transport, Urbanization and Economic Development c.1670-1911 (RPG-2013-093); (4) NSF (SES-1260699), Modelling the Transport Revolution and the Industrial Revolution in England; (5) The Isaac Newton Trust (Cambridge), Transport, Energy and Urbanization c.1670-1911. We thank Max Satchell for foundational work creating GIS shapefiles of the roads. We also thank seminar participants at the University of Cambridge and UC Irvine. All errors are our own. Travel improved dramatically between 1660 and 1820 in England and Wales. This paper uses nearly 100 travellers’ diaries to study the mode choice, speed of road transport and the quality of the roads used from the mid-1600s to 1820. Using mapping software, we digitise journeys made by various travel modes along more than 348,000 journey miles. We document that travel shifted from the saddlehorse to wheeled vehicles and that speed increased, although to a lesser degree in private or hired carriages compared to stagecoaches. We also report a novel measure of road quality using diarists’ descriptions of the road. The reported quality of many main roads went from ‘poor’ to ‘adequate’ or ‘good’ by the early 19 th century. We also show that turnpike trusts, a novel organization for road funding, contributed to significantly better quality and were favoured over other roads by travellers in wheeled vehicles. Our estimates imply that the spread of turnpike trusts can account for most of the road quality change from 1660 to 1820.","wordCount":274,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Dan Bogart","Alan Rosevear","Leigh Shaw‐Taylor"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101748","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5cd4dc2738c0dee7","title":"Greenflation: Empirical evidence using macro, regional and sectoral data","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of climate change policies on inflation, for a large sample of 177 developed and developing economies, 78 subnational territorial areas and 17 sectors, over the period 1989–2022. We show that carbon taxes lead to inflationary pressures. The effect is not negligible: a one standard deviation carbon tax shock—corresponding to a 5$/tCO2 increase in emissions-weighted carbon taxes—leads to an increase of the price level of about 0.7 percent one year after the implementation of the policy, and between 1.6 and 4 percent in the medium term. These results hold at the national, sub-national and sectoral level. The effect is larger when inflation is initially high, and in regions (sectors) characterized by high emissions and low innovation capacity. In contrast, we find that emissions trading systems as well as non-market-based climate change policies (such as R&D subsidies) do not have statistically significant effects on prices.","wordCount":148,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Luca Bettarelli","Davide Furceri","Loredana Pisano","Pietro Pizzuto"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104983","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5d0fe6c4698a355d","title":"Information flows and memory in games","abstract":"The standard extensive-form partitional representation of information in sequential games fails to distinguish the description of the rules of interaction from the description of players' personal traits. Indeed, this representation does not model how the information given to players as per the rules of the game blends with players' cognitive abilities. We propose a representation of sequential games that explicitly describes the flow of information accruing to players rather than the stock of information retained by players encoded in information partitions. Then, we add a game-independent description of players' mnemonic abilities. If players have perfect memory, our flow representation gives rise to information partitions satisfying the perfect recall property, but different combinations of information flows and players' mnemonic abilities may induce the same information partitions. We show how to use our framework to explicitly model a wide array of cognitive limitations and embed them in the representation of game situations.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Pierpaolo Battigalli","Nicolò Generoso"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.03.018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5d340f9506a11d63","title":"Rent formation and distortions due to quotas in biological production processes","abstract":"Production licenses with use restrictions that limit output are commonly used to regulate biological production processes. Such regulations are vulnerable to rent formation and production distortions that can end up subsidizing harmful environmental behavior. This paper develops a partial equilibrium model for a biological production process and use the model to study the impact of production quotas in Norwegian salmon aquaculture. Results suggest substantial regulatory rents capitalized in license values. Production has intensified leading to excessive stocking of fish per license, a shorting of the production period, and smaller produced fish. Our findings provide important insights for quota policies in food production, especially for cases where quotas are motivated by harmful environmental effects.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Atle Øglend","Frank Asche","Hans‐Martin Straume"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101438","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5d3da1eade965bdb","title":"Keep them out of It! How information externalities affect the willingness to sell personal data online","abstract":"When individuals provide their personal data online, they often disregard that this allows learning about others, too. Our large-scale online experiment reveals that individuals are less willing to provide personal data when sharing can compromise others’ privacy, entailing personalized price discrimination. Compared to a benchmark without data compromise, individuals’ willingness to sell data decreases when others’ data is compromised with 50% or 100% probability. By applying two well-studied interventions – peer effects and a social norm focus – we explore ways to mitigate excessive data sharing, laying the ground for policy design. While peer effects, on average, increase individuals’ willingness to provide personal data, making people reflect on the appropriate behavior appears to be a promising social nudge to reduce negative externalities.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Tim Friehe","Leonie Gerhards","Franziska Weber"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102830","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5d443618c080c54c","title":"Political frictions and public policy outcomes","abstract":"We study the role of political frictions in public policy outcomes. We propose a simple model of fiscal policy that combines a lack of commitment by the government, political turnover, and another political friction that can be interpreted either as political polarization or as public rent-seeking. We show that political turnover increases public debt levels, while political polarization or public rent-seeking leads to higher public spending. We evaluate the importance of different political frictions for fiscal policy outcomes using a sample of twenty developed countries. We find that the data on political instability combined with the data on public rent-seeking explain 25% of the variation in public debt levels.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Daryna Grechyna"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2016.06.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5d4de241bffcbfc0","title":"Do education quality and spillovers matter? Evidence on human capital and productivity in Greece","abstract":"This paper estimates production functions for Greek regions over 1971–2011, using census data on educational human capital. We construct rich human capital series, where data for employees are decomposed according to their education level. In addition, we take into account possible effects due to education quality and spillovers. Our evidence shows that human capital has a strong positive association with labor productivity through upper secondary and tertiary education, while primary education exhibits a negative relationship and lower secondary education does not exhibit any association with productivity. Tertiary education spillovers along with a number of education quality indicators present a significant positive relationship with productivity. Overall, findings suggest that policy makers should account for education quality as well as spillovers and direct their efforts toward a more efficient and enhanced education system with emphasis on high education levels to improve labor productivity overall and reduce spatial productivity disparities.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Nikos Benos","Stelios Karagiannis"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.01.015","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5d4f7b5c36d1aafb","title":"Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: empirical research based on cross-country panel data","abstract":"Economic complexity reflects a country’s production capabilities and plays an important role in economic growth. This article measures the economic complexity of 210 countries using the method of reflections, and investigates the impact of economic complexity and human capital on economic growth. The measurement results show that there are significant differences regarding the level of complexity among countries. High-income economies have higher complexity than low- and middle-income economies. The empirical findings demonstrate that economic complexity and different levels of human capital have positive effects on long- and short-term growth. A positive interaction effect on economic growth exists between economic complexity and human capital. In addition, secondary education as a proxy for human capital has a relatively greater positive direct effect and a much stronger interactive effect with complexity on economic growth. In addition, the magnitude of the interaction effect between economic complexity and human capital on long- and short-term growth increases as the revealed comparative advantage threshold grows.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Shujin Zhu","Renyu Li"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1270413","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5d690da4f5d10a4f","title":"Exploring public opinions on mining governance and preferences for interventions to enhance battery mineral access","abstract":"Based on an online survey of 1,200 individuals, we examine support for new mining projects in the United States, opinions on mining governance, and preferences for various strategies to access battery minerals. We find support for domestic mining more so at the national (54% support) than local level (32% support), with a strong emphasis on environmental protection and multi-level governance. Respondents generally support government intervention to secure access to battery minerals, with over half agreeing with subsidizing electric vehicle (EV) producers and consumers to prioritize the use of domestic minerals in EV batteries. However, there is measurable opposition to mandates requiring prioritizing domestic minerals. Analysis based on regression models reveals that (1) respondents who support more new mining at the national or state levels are more likely to support them within a 25-mile radius of their home than the average respondent, reflecting consistency in support across levels, and (2) preferences for a variety of policy interventions to access battery minerals are shaped by support for new mining and mining governance opinions.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Mahelet G. Fikru","Sreeja Koppera","Nhien Nguyen"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101554","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5d727df810c250d2","title":"Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration","abstract":"How do income shocks affect international migration flows from poor countries? Income growth not only increases the opportunity cost of migration but also eases liquidity constraints. I develop a method to separate these countervailing individual effects and identify the overall income elasticity of migration. Using new administrative and census data from Indonesia, I find that positive agricultural income shocks increase labor emigration flows, particularly in villages with relatively more small landholders. However, in the most developed rural areas, persistent income shocks reduce emigration. Overall, the findings highlight the important role of wealth heterogeneity in shaping migration flows as incomes rise.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Samuel Bazzi"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150548","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5d7d7ca875592388","title":"Corporate culture and M&A deals: Using text from crowdsourced employer reviews to measure cultural differences","abstract":"Corporate culture constitutes a key success factor in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We examine the role of acquirer-target cultural differences in US domestic M&A deals. We train a topic model on how employees describe corporate culture in free-response texts of crowdsourced employer reviews to estimate cultural differences between the acquirer-target pairs. We find a negative linear relationship between cultural differences and deal announcement returns. However, adding a squared term of our main variable of interest to our model reveals a U-shaped relationship between cultural differences and announcement returns that is stronger in magnitude and statistical significance than the single term alone. Our results reconcile two competing hypotheses on the role of cultural differences in M&A.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Tobias Hertel","Devrimi Kaya","Doron Reichmann"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107118","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5d7feee5891054ae","title":"Monetary Policy According to HANK","abstract":"We revisit the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to household consumption in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model. The model yields empirically realistic distributions of wealth and marginal propensities to consume because of two features: uninsurable income shocks and multiple assets with different degrees of liquidity and different returns. In this environment, the indirect effects of an unexpected cut in interest rates, which operate through a general equilibrium increase in labor demand, far outweigh direct effects such as intertemporal substitution. This finding is in stark contrast to small- and medium-scale Representative Agent New Keynesian (RANK) economies, where the substitution channel drives virtually all of the transmission from interest rates to consumption. Failure of Ricardian equivalence implies that, in HANK models, the fiscal reaction to the monetary expansion is a key determinant of the overall size of the macroeconomic response.","wordCount":140,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Greg Kaplan","Benjamin Moll","Giovanni L. Violante"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160042","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5d8ef39cfcb18f6e","title":"Does immigration crowd out foreign direct investment inflows? Tradeoff between contemporaneous FDI-immigration substitution and ethnic network externalities","abstract":"This study examines the dynamic interactions between immigration and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using bilateral data on these indicators between Japan and each of the 29 countries/economies of origin for both FDI and immigrants into Japan during 1996–2011. Although literature shows a positive FDI–migration relationship, I distinguish between short- and long-term effects of immigration, and show a contemporaneous negative relationship between FDI and immigration. The results show that immigration flows discourage FDI inflows (FDI–migration substitution), although larger immigration stocks induce FDI inflows (ethnic network externalities). Therefore, total effects need to be evaluated considering a tradeoff between contemporaneous substitution and the longer-term complementarity from network effects. While inward FDI promotion and immigration enhancement are often suggested as solutions to resolving shortages in domestic savings and labor, our results have implications for addressing the increasingly daunting policy issue of population aging.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Akinori Tomohara"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5d95393966d88c6c","title":"Demand for in-app purchases in mobile apps—A difference-in-difference approach","abstract":"Using five “freemium” mobile app games on six European markets we examine the effect of price changes on conversion rate, number of users and viewing of rewarded videos. Our difference-in-difference estimation relies on games being available on both the Apple and Google platforms with price changes on only one platform. Our main identification comes from exogenous adjustments of Apples prices in 2021. Own-price elasticities of conversion are in the -1 to -4 range. Watching of rewarded videos decreases as in-app prices decrease with an average elasticity of around 0.5, but overall play is not affected by changes in-app prices.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Andreea Enache","Richard Friberg","Magnus Wiklander"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102945","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5daa4b10a0421648","title":"Does investor risk perception drive asset prices in markets? Experimental evidence","abstract":"We explore how individual risk perception influences prices and trading behavior in a market setting. Specifically, our study lets experimental participants trade assets characterized by varying shapes of return distributions. While common mean-variance models predict identical prices for most of our assets, we find trading prices to differ significantly. Assets that are perceived as being less risky on average (despite having identical volatility) trade at significantly higher prices. Individually, traders who perceive a certain asset to be less risky are also net buyers on average. With regard to different risk measures, our results show that the probability of a loss is the strongest predictor of transaction prices and risk perception. All these results hold also for experienced traders and when traders can trade two assets at the same time.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Jürgen Huber","Stefan Palan","Stefan Zeisberger"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105635","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5dbc86d3e93328dc","title":"Rumor has it: How do patients respond to patient-generated physician ratings?","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of patient-generated ratings of primary care physicians in Norway. Norway has a universal health care system, with no available objective quality indicators. In May 2012, an online review platform that allows patients to rate their physician was launched. Relying on a difference-in-differences approach we show that higher-rated physicians see an increase in demand relative to lower-rated physicians. The effect is primarily driven by females and patients with high socioeconomic status. We find no indications that physicians change their practice style or supply of patient capacity in response to the ratings.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Simon Søbstad Bensnes","Ingrid Huitfeldt"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102415","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5dc78a60b7f08958","title":"International migration as a driver of political and social change: evidence from Morocco","abstract":"This paper focuses on the impact of international migration on the transfer of political and social norms. Exploiting recent and unique data on Morocco, this paper explores whether households with return and current migrants bear different political preferences and behaviours than non-migrant families. Once controlling for the double selection into emigration and return migration, the findings suggest that having a returnee in the household increases the demand for political and social change. This result is driven by returnees mostly from Western European countries, who were exposed to more democratic norms in the destination. However, we find a negative impact of having a current migrant on the willingness of the left-behind households to change. This result is driven by migrants to non-Western countries, where the quality of political and social institutions is lower. Our results are robust to also controlling for destination selectivity.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Michele Tuccio","Jackline Wahba","Bachir Hamdouch"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00734-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5dc7b97dc2752329","title":"Strategic uncertainty aversion in bargaining — Experimental evidence","abstract":"In a series of four experiments I demonstrate the existence of significant aversion to basically non-existent strategic uncertainty in very simple bargaining games. This aversion goes far beyond ordinary risk or ambiguity aversion. Specifically, although almost nobody expects or chooses the rejection of an offered equal split in a bargaining game, participants behave as if there would be a considerably large rejection rate for equal splits. This behavior is robust across experimental designs and subject pools, can lead to inefficiencies in markets, and is incompatible with consistency of strategies and rational beliefs.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Ben Greiner"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102604","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5ddc212204c18de9","title":"Disclosure to a Psychological Audience","abstract":"We study how a benevolent expert should disclose information to an agent with psychological concerns. We first provide a method to compute an optimal information policy for many psychological traits. The method suggests, for instance, that an agent suffering from temptation à la Gul and Pesendorfer (2001) should not know what he is missing, thereby explaining observed biases as an optimal reaction to costly self-control. We also show that simply recommending actions is optimal when the agent is intrinsically averse to information but has instrumental uses for it. This result, which circumvents the failure of the Revelation Principle in psychological environments, simplifies disclosure and informs the debate regarding mandated disclosure.","wordCount":110,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Elliot Lipnowski","Laurent Mathevet"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160247","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5dde7380f5ee3b63","title":"Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth","abstract":"We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using 12 years of population data from Norway's administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, individuals earn markedly different average returns on their net worth (a standard deviation of 22.1%) and on its components. Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within narrow asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the net worth distribution increases the return by 18 percentage points (and 10 percentage points if looking at net‐of‐tax returns). Fourth, individual wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly arises from stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Andreas Fagereng","Luigi Guiso","Davide Malacrino","Luigi Pistaferri"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14835","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5de6fc7d76429f31","title":"The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates","abstract":"Sorting countries by their dollar currency betas produces a novel cross section of average currency excess returns. A slope factor (long in high beta currencies and short in low beta currencies) accounts for this cross section of currency risk premia. This slope factor is orthogonal to the high‐minus‐low carry trade factor built from portfolios of countries sorted by their interest rates. The two high‐minus‐low risk factors account for 18% to 80% of the monthly exchange rate movements. The two risk factors suggest that stochastic discount factors in complete markets' models should feature at least two global shocks to describe exchange rates.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Adrien Verdelhan"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12587","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5de79cd91ccdbb12","title":"International trade and job polarization: Evidence at the worker level","abstract":"We employ employer-employee matched data from Denmark and utilize plausibly exogenous variation in the rise of import competition due to the dismantling of import quotas as China entered the World Trade Organization to show, first, that rising import competition has led to reduced employment in mid-wage occupations compensated by an increased likelihood of employment in both low-wage and high-wage occupations. Workers with higher education are more likely to move from mid- to high-wage occupations due to trade compared to moving from mid- to low-wage occupations. Employing task content information of detailed occupations, we also show that workers performing manual tasks are the ones most affected by import competition independently of the routine-task intensity of occupations. This implies that the effect of import competition is distinct from that of routine task-replacing technological change.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Wolfgang Keller","Hâle Utar"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103810","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5df40ecf603f5ec9","title":"Reducing food loss and waste: Five challenges for policy and research","abstract":"Despite broad agreement in policy circles on the need to reduce food loss and waste (FLW), considerable gaps in information still exist. This paper identifies policy-relevant information gaps, summarizes recent research that tries to fill these gaps and identifies five challenges for researchers, policymakers and practitioners in reducing FLW. The five challenges identified are: (i) measuring and monitoring FLW, (ii) assessing benefits and costs of FLW reduction and the tradeoffs involved, (iii) designing FLW-related policies and interventions under limited information, (iv) understanding how interactions between stages along food value chain and across countries affect outcomes of FLW reduction efforts, (v) preparing for income transitions and the shifting relative importance of losses and waste as economies develop.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Andrea Cattaneo","Marco V. Sánchez","Máximo Torero","Rob Vos"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101974","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5df6bdbcde485e2e","title":"The road not taken: competition and the R&D portfolio","abstract":"This article examines the effects of market structure on the variety of research projects undertaken and the amount of duplication of research. A characterization of the equilibrium market portfolio of R&D projects and the socially optimal portfolio is provided. It is shown that a merger decreases the variety of developed projects and decreases the amount of duplication of research. An increase in the intensity of competition among firms leads to an increase in the variety of developed projects and a decrease in the amount of duplication of research.","wordCount":88,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Igor Letina"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","M","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12133","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5df799688193903f","title":"Informal vendors and food systems planning in an emerging African city","abstract":"Rapid urban growth is straining infrastructures, economies, and food security of cities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Amid competing issues of sanitation, housing, and unemployment, planning for urban food security receives less attention. Despite the proliferation of supermarkets in SSA, informal food vendors remain crucial sources of food for the majority of households. However, as cities grow and planners try to adapt, these informal vendors are generally left out of planning considerations, marginalized by policies that do not support this business model, or subjected to political vicissitudes. This paper analyzes how vendors in emerging cities are economically, socially, and spatially integrated within the urban food system, highlighting the assets these vendors represent and the ways they might support growth in cities. We map vendors’ networks of food suppliers, and describe sources of operating capital and labor assets to show the range of services vendors utilize and the types of institutions, businesses, and individuals that vendors use to support their work. We spatially analyze the relationship between vendors and suppliers, and between vendors and households, to demonstrate how enmeshed these vendors are in the broader food system and the links they create between consumers and suppliers. We demonstrate that due to spatial differences and vendors’ and consumers’ needs in emerging cities, a one-size-fits-all approach for integration of informal vendors in the food system is less likely to be successful in terms of either economic development or household food security.","wordCount":237,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Stacey Giroux","Jordan Blekking","Kurt B. Waldman","Danielle Resnick","Daniel Fobi"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101997","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5e293861e6dbcb63","title":"Does Ignorance of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Representative Evidence from Adults and Adolescents","abstract":"The gap in university enrolment by parental education is large and persistent in many countries. In our representative survey of German adults, 74% of university graduates, but only 36% of those without a university degree, favour university education for their children. The latter are more likely to underestimate returns and overestimate costs of university. Similarly, 75% of adolescents with university‐educated parents, but only 51% without university‐educated parents aspire to a university degree. Experimental provision of general return and cost information does not close the aspiration gap as treatment effects are at least as strong for individuals with a university background as for those without. Differences in economic preference parameters also cannot account for the educational aspiration gap.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Philipp Lergetporer","Katharina Werner","Ludger Woessmann"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12371","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-5e299a3ec8036863","title":"Simultaneous estimation and group identification for network vector autoregressive model with heterogeneous nodes","abstract":"Individuals or companies in a large social or financial network often display rather heterogeneous behaviors for various reasons. In this work, we propose a network vector autoregressive model with a latent group structure to model heterogeneous dynamic patterns observed from network nodes, for which group-wise network effects and time-invariant fixed-effects can be naturally incorporated. In our framework, the model parameters and network node memberships can be simultaneously estimated by minimizing a least-squares type objective function. In particular, our theoretical investigation allows the number of latent groups G to be over-specified when achieving the estimation consistency of the model parameters and group memberships, which significantly improves the robustness of the proposed approach. When G is correctly specified, valid statistical inference can be made for model parameters based on the asymptotic normality of the estimators. A data-driven criterion is developed to consistently identify the true group number for practical use. Extensive simulation studies and two real data examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Xuening Zhu","Ganggang Xu","Jianqing Fan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105564","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5e32cbbe8b7798b3","title":"How family background shapes the relationship between human capital and fertility","abstract":"Many previous studies have shown that skilled and educated women have fewer children. By comparing twins and close siblings in Swedish register data, we show that the negative association between human capital and fertility mostly reflects family background factors. For males, human capital measures are unrelated to fertility in the overall population, but this again masks the influence of family background factors as high-skilled males tend to have more children than their less-skilled twins or siblings. Hence, family background factors have a strong negative impact on the overall association between human capital measures and fertility for both women and men. Non-cognitive abilities deviate from these patterns—these abilities remain strongly complementary to fertility both within and across families. Our results can be reconciled with a stylized model where family-specific preferences for fertility are shared across generations and shape investments in skills and traits when children are young.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Françis Kramarz","Olof Rosenqvist","Oskar Nordström Skans"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00834-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5e3bdfeb0b762128","title":"Persuasion with unknown beliefs","abstract":"A sender designs an information structure to persuade a receiver to take an action. The sender is ignorant about the receiver's prior, and evaluates each information structure using the receiver's prior that is the worst for the sender. I characterize the optimal information structures in this environment. I show that there exists an optimal signal with two realizations, characterize the support of the signal realization recommending approval,, and show that the optimal signal is a hyperbola. The lack of knowledge of the receiver's prior causes the sender to hedge her bets: the optimal signal induces the high action in more states than in the standard model, albeit with a lower probability. Increasing the sender's ignorance can hurt both the sender and the receiver.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Svetlana Kosterina"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4742","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-5e467ae6c5695b97","title":"Gender Differences in STEM Persistence after Graduation","abstract":"Much attention is focused on finding ways to encourage females to study STEM in school and college, but what actually happens once women complete a STEM degree? We use the UK Quarterly Labour Force Survey to trace out gender differences in STEM persistence over the career. We find a continuous process whereby women are more likely to exit STEM than men. Among STEM undergraduate degree holders, women are more likely to obtain a non‐STEM master's degree. After entering the labour market, there is a gradual outflow of females during the first 15 years post‐graduation, so that females are about 20 percentage points less likely to work in STEM than men. Conditional on leaving STEM, females are more likely to enter the education and health sectors, while males are more likely to enter the business sector, and this can partly explain the gender pay gap for STEM graduates. Overall, our results suggest that policies that aim to increase the proportion of females studying STEM may have less effect than expected due to the lower attachment of females to STEM after graduation. Such policies may need to be augmented with efforts to tackle the greater propensity of females to exit STEM throughout the career.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Judith Delaney","Paul J. Devereux"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12437","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5e526ce80a683b7e","title":"Does it Matter if Competition is “Fair” or “on the Merits”? An Application to Platform Self-Preferencing","abstract":"Platform self-preferencing is often attacked as being “unfair.” Proponents of the consumer welfare standard complain that a fairness standard is too vague and too untethered from competitive effects to be a useful guide for antitrust enforcement. However, the consumer welfare standard relies on assessment of whether competition is “on the merits,” and the criteria for “merits” substantially overlap with those for “fairness.” Both standards generally condemn: (a) deception; (b) raising rivals’ costs; and (c) gaining too much competitive advantage from past success, especially across markets. This article examines whether these criteria help identify when the competitive effects of self-preferencing are positive or negative. The discussion is framed in terms of a platform that facilitates the interaction of buyers and sellers, and chooses whether to preference certain sellers. As the literature has shown, whether it owns a seller or not, a platform may use preferencing to promote seller competition or to promote seller market power, depending on the circumstances. Given the varying effects of self-preferencing, a blanket prohibition is unwarranted. Unfortunately, the common criteria for fairness and merit do not reliably identify the direction of self-preferencing’s competitive effects. For example, deception by a lagging firm could strengthen competition in the sense of lowering equilibrium purchase prices and raising consumer welfare. And gaining “too much” competitive advantage from past successes could facilitate entry into new markets, thus increasing competition in those markets. Instead of applying criteria for fairness and merit, a case-by-case, fact-intensive analysis of actual competitive effects is needed.","wordCount":248,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michael L. Katz"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09982-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5e58459ba661fc17","title":"The effect of co-opted boards on corporate carbon performance: Evidence from financially material industries","abstract":"We examine the relationship between co-opted boards and corporate carbon performance. Results show that co-opted boards decrease GHG intensity in financially material industries with no effect in non-financially material industries. For firms in financially material industries, this relationship is time-variant and positive when we interact GHG intensity with R&D investments. This result posits inefficient R&D allocation in the presence of co-opted boards. Our findings bring a more nuanced picture concerning the influence of co-opted boards on corporate carbon performance.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Etienne Develay","Nader Virk"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111910","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5e5a89a86e9db2b3","title":"Supermarket Shopping and Nutritional Outcomes: A Panel Data Analysis for Urban Kenya","abstract":"Overweight and obesity are growing health problems in many developing countries. Rising obesity rates are the result of changes in people’s diets and lifestyles. Income growth and urbanization are factors that contribute to these changes. Modernizing food retail environments may also play a certain role. For instance, the rapid spread of supermarkets in many developing countries could affect consumer food choices and thus nutritional outcomes. However, concrete evidence about the effects of supermarkets on consumer diets and nutrition is thin. A few existing studies have analyzed related linkages with cross-sectional survey data. We add to this literature by using panel data from households and individuals in urban Kenya. Employing panel regression models with individual fixed effects and controlling for other factors we show that shopping in supermarkets significantly increases body mass index (BMI). We also analyze impact pathways. Shopping in supermarkets contributes to higher consumption of processed and highly processed foods and lower consumption of unprocessed foods. These results confirm that the retail environment affects people’s food choices and nutrition. However, the effects depend on the types of foods offered. Rather than thwarting modernization in the retail sector, policies that incentivize the sale of more healthy foods—such as fruits and vegetables—in supermarkets may be more promising to promote desirable nutritional outcomes.","wordCount":211,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Kathrin Demmler","Olivier Ecker","Matin Qaim"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.07.018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5e63fe0e37444f03","title":"Optimal tax policy and endogenous growth through innovation","abstract":"We investigate optimal tax policy in a Romer-style endogenous growth model. We derive formulas for the optimal tax rates on capital, labour, and innovation on a balanced growth path. We compute the balanced growth path and the transition to it with optimal policy for a range of parameter values. We find that capital should be taxed in the short run, but be paid its marginal product in the long run. The returns to innovation and production labour, on the other hand, should always be lower than their marginal products. Whether the resulting taxes on innovative activity should be positive or negative depends on (a) the extent of government spending needs, (b) the importance of innovation externalities and (c) the market power of patent holders. The welfare gains from optimal policy are much larger than in a comparable exogenous growth model.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Till Gross","Paul Klein"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104645","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5e65ad120291c302","title":"The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures","abstract":"Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the heterogeneous impact of school closures during the corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics. In the model, public investment through schooling is combined with parental time and resource investments in the production of child human capital at different stages in the children’s development process. We quantitatively characterise the long-term consequences from a COVID-19-induced loss of schooling, and find average losses in the present discounted value of lifetime earnings of the affected children of $2.1\\%$, as well as welfare losses equivalent to about $1.2\\%$ of permanent consumption. Because of self-productivity in the human capital production function, younger children are hurt more by the school closures than older children. The negative impact of the crisis on children’s welfare is especially severe for those with parents with low educational attainment and low assets.","wordCount":147,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Nicola Fuchs‐Schündeln","Dirk Krueger","Alexander Ludwig","Irina Popova"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5e6b19e957f6a4b0","title":"Dual Job Holding and the Gig Economy: Allocation of Effort across Primary and Gig Jobs","abstract":"This article explored motivations for allocating effort between “gig” and primary jobs using a sample of Amazon Mechanical Turk workers. We found that main job hour constraints, a commonly cited rationale for traditional moonlighting, were a motivation for men but not for women. Other factors affecting effort were also gender specific: Men were driven to spend more time on gig jobs to increase their incomes, while women were motivated by insecurity in their main job. Women, though not men, who were more depressed based on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale earned less in their gig economy job. Finally, higher risk aversion reduced income from gig work for men, but not women. We concluded that motivations for effort allocated between the primary and gig jobs differ from those identified in past literature as important for traditional moonlighting decisions.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Meriem Hodge Doucette","W. David Bradford"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12338","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5e8c8f4df27a3538","title":"Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants","abstract":"U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest?the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances?have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies?Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. We find that large declines in trend GDP growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in all four economies. These country-by-country estimates are found to display a substantial amount of comovement over time, suggesting an important role for global factors in shaping trend growth and natural rates of interest.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Kathryn Holston","Thomas Laubach","John C. Williams"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5ea2e6d73014b1fa","title":"International Trade with Indirect Additivity","abstract":"We develop a general equilibrium model of trade that features “indirectly additive” preferences and heterogeneous firms. Monopolistic competition generates markups that are increasing in firm productivity and in destination country per capita income, but independent from destination population, as documented empirically. The gains from trade liberalization are lower than in models based on CES preferences, and the difference is governed by the average pass-through. When we calibrate the model so as to match observed pricing-to-market in micro-data, it generates welfare gains that are substantially lower than those predicted by commonly employed frameworks.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Paolo Bertoletti","Federico Etro","Ina Simonovska"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160382","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-5ea8a4804a5f0521","title":"Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa","abstract":"Can digital information and communication technology foster mass political mobilization? We use a novel georeferenced data set for the entire African continent between 1998 and 2012 on the coverage of mobile phone signal together with georeferenced data from multiple sources on the occurrence of protests and on individual participation in protests to bring this argument to empirical scrutiny. We find that while mobile phones are instrumental to mass mobilization, this only happens during economic downturns, when reasons for grievance emerge and the cost of participation falls. The results are in line with insights from a network model with imperfect information and strategic complementarities in protest occurrence. Mobile phones make individuals more responsive to both changes in economic conditions—a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced information —and to their neighbors' participation—a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced coordination .","wordCount":138,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Marco Manacorda","Andrea Tesei"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14392","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5eadced042ed03b8","title":"Firm-level media news, bank loans, and the role of institutional environments","abstract":"Employing an international sample of bank loans from 37 countries, we find that both borrowers' intensive media coverage and positive media sentiment reduce the interest rate spreads on bank loans. In syndicated lending, positive media sentiment increases the likelihood of a non-relationship bank leading or participating in a loan syndicate and decreases the loan share of the lead arranger. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the negative impact of media news on loan spreads is more pronounced in countries with better financial information and governance environments, a higher representation of privately owned media, and lower government control of banks. These findings underscore the significance of media coverage and sentiment in shaping the costs of bank loans worldwide.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Zhehao Jia","Donghui Li","Yukun Shi","Lu Xing"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102491","license":"cc-by-sa"},{"id":"public-5eb96f4a15c2caaf","title":"The New Tools of Monetary Policy","abstract":"To overcome the limits on traditional monetary policy imposed by the effective lower bound on short-term interest rates, in recent years the Federal Reserve and other advanced-economy central banks have deployed new policy tools. This lecture reviews what we know about the new monetary tools, focusing on quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance, the principal new tools used by the Fed. I argue that the new tools have proven effective at easing financial conditions when policy rates are constrained by the lower bound, even when financial markets are functioning normally, and that they can be made even more effective in the future. Accordingly, the new tools should become part of the standard central bank toolkit. Simulations of the Fed’s FRB/US model suggest that, if the nominal neutral interest rate is in the range of 2–3 percent, consistent with most estimates for the United States, then a combination of QE and forward guidance can provide the equivalent of roughly 3 percentage points of policy space, largely offsetting the effects of the lower bound. If the neutral rate is much lower, however, then overcoming the effects of the lower bound may require additional measures, such as a moderate increase in the inflation target or greater reliance on fiscal policy for economic stabilization.","wordCount":210,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Ben Bernanke"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.110.4.943","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5ec2cc410b577454","title":"The arithmetic of outcome editing in financial and social domains","abstract":"Outcome editing refers to a set of mental rules that people apply when deciding whether to evaluate multiple outcomes jointly or separately, which subsequently affects choice. In a large-scale online survey (n = 2062) we investigate whether individuals use the same outcome editing rules for financial outcomes (e.g., a lottery win) and social outcomes (e.g., a party with friends). We also test the role of numeric ability in explaining outcome editing. Our results show that people’s preferences for combining or separating events depend on whether those events are in the financial or the social domain. Specifically, individuals were more likely to segregate social outcomes than monetary outcomes, except for when all outcomes were negative. Moreover, numeric ability was associated with preferences for outcome editing in the financial domain but not in the social domain. Our findings extend the understanding of the arithmetic operations underlying outcome editing and suggest that people rely more on calculations when making choices involving multiple financial outcomes and more on feelings when making choices involving social outcomes.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Kinga Barrafrem","Daniel Västfjäll","Gustav Tinghög"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102408","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5ec73007380d75b2","title":"IPO price formation and board gender diversity","abstract":"Using a sample of U.S. IPOs from 2000–2019, we show that IPOs with at least one female director experience significantly greater underpricing on the first trading day. The effect is not attributable to the previously documented determinants of underpricing or other firm or director characteristics. The underpricing effect is the strongest after 2010—when pressures were placed on firms to diversify their boards—and the effect is mitigated in the very last years of the sample—where we find that gender-diverse board IPOs realize greater offer price revisions and final offer prices, relative to non-diverse board IPOs. The dynamic relation between board gender diversity and IPO price formation coincides with the timing of the diversity campaigns of BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard, suggesting that investor demand for board gender diversity was not fully incorporated into IPO offer prices until this demand was widely publicized.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["P. Raghavendra Rau","Jason Sandvik","Theo Vermaelen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102629","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5ec783c510706424","title":"Tracing the invisible rich: A new approach to modelling Pareto tails in survey data","abstract":"This paper is concerned with the problem of modelling the tail of the wealth distribution with survey data when the data does not adequately cover the tail of the distribution. In order to deal with the problem post data collection, it is standard practice to either fit a Pareto tail to the data or to combine wealth survey data with observations from rich lists before fitting such a Pareto tail. This paper proposes a novel approach (‘rank correction’) to address such cases which does not require additional data-sources. Applying the rank correction approach to wealth survey data (HFCS, SCF, WAS) yields estimates of top wealth shares, which are closely in line with estimates from the World Inequality Database and therefore represent a significant improvement over the raw survey data. While the paper focuses on the distribution of wealth as a case in point the rank correction approach might generally prove useful in contexts, where the tail of a Pareto-distributed variable is not adequately covered by the available data.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Rafael Wildauer","Jakob Kapeller"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102145","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5ecd1b51f1903a4e","title":"Using Q-methodology in environmental sustainability research: A bibliometric analysis and systematic review","abstract":"Q-methodology is a mixed qualitative-quantitative method used to measure social perspectives on issues relating to sustainability and environmental governance in a systematic, replicable manner. Although its use grown over the past two decades, to date there has not been a comprehensive review of the environmental sustainability Q-methodology literature. Using bibliometric analysis and systematic review, this paper examines the rapid growth in published Q-methodology research on sustainable natural resource management and environmental governance. We analysed and iteratively coded 277 empirical Q-studies published between 2000-2018 to establish research trends, shared gaps, and best practices among environmental social science Q-researchers. We also conducted co-authorship and co-citation analyses to identify research clusters using Q-methodology. We find that, while Q-methodology uses a relatively standardized protocol, considerable heterogeneity persists across such domains as study design, p-set identification, concourse and Q-set development, analysis and interpretation. Further, we identify major reporting gaps among Q-methodology publications where researchers do not fully describe or justify subjective decision-making throughout the research process. The paper ends with recommendations for improving research reporting and increasing the circulation and uptake of up-to-date Q-methodology practices and innovations.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Gretchen Sneegas","Sydney Beckner","Christian Brannstrom","Wendy Jepson","Kyungsun Lee","Lucas Seghezzo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106864","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5ed66563dfc450d0","title":"Solidarity and fairness in times of crisis","abstract":"In a large-scale pre-registered survey experiment with a representative sample of more than 8000 Americans, we examine how a reminder of the COVID-19 pandemic causally affects people's views on solidarity and fairness. We randomly manipulate whether respondents are asked general questions about the crisis before answering moral questions. By making the pandemic particularly salient for treated respondents, we provide causal evidence on how the crisis may change moral views. We find that a reminder about the crisis makes respondents more willing to prioritize society's problems over their own problems, but also more tolerant of inequalities due to luck. We show that people's moral views are strongly associated with their policy preferences for redistribution. The findings show that the pandemic may alter moral views and political attitudes in the United States and, consequently, the support for redistribution and welfare policies.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Alexander W. Cappelen","Ranveig Falch","Erik Ø. Sørensen","Bertil Tungodden"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.03.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5ee428dece6e6a24","title":"Do municipal mergers reduce the cost of waste management? Evidence from Japan","abstract":"This study investigates whether municipal mergers result in lower waste management costs. We develop a novel virtual merging method based on machine learning techniques to compile the data of the control group and estimate the effect of the large-scale consolidation in Japan on the various costs of managing municipal solid waste. We find that these mergers actually led to an increase in the total cost per ton. Estimation results also reveal that the construction cost increased in the post-merger period, which can be explained by the special bonds provided by the national government for new projects in merged municipalities. By contrast, the processing and management cost is little affected by the mergers, except for the absorption-type mergers and municipalities that never joined waste management associations. These results suggest that municipal mergers might not always bring a substantial scale economy in municipal solid waste management. Policymakers should be careful when promoting municipal mergers in the belief that a scale economy will prevail after the reform.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Jinsong Li","Kenji Takeuchi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103939","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5ef485ee1b33b668","title":"Nowcasting in a pandemic using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs","abstract":"This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of extreme observations, for instance those produced by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. This is due to their flexibility and ability to model outliers. In an application involving four major euro area countries, we find substantial improvements in nowcasting performance relative to a linear mixed frequency VAR.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Florian Huber","Gary Koop","Luca Onorante","Michael Pfarrhofer","Josef Schreiner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.11.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5f094aa6e441163d","title":"Education and family health care spending","abstract":"Michael Grossman's seminal work on the demand for health extended the concept of a household production function to the commodity “good health.” In this framework, education represents an “environmental variable” that enhances the monetary returns to investments in health through the use of time and medical care in health production. Using data from the 2004 to 2012 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), we examine the association between parental education and family health care spending in single‐mother and two‐parent families. We estimate one‐ and two‐part expenditure models for total family health care spending, for specific components of such spending, and also examine the impact of parental education on selected measures of family health. Controlling for family income and health insurance status, we find consistent evidence that parental education beyond 12 years of schooling is associated with increases in family health care spending and with reductions in the likelihood of adverse health conditions.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Alan C. Monheit","Irina B. Grafova"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12300","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5f18cabdc42027b4","title":"Understanding fertilizer adoption and effectiveness on maize in Zambia","abstract":"Increased fertilizer use will likely be crucial for raising and sustaining farm productivity in Africa, but adoption may be limited by ineffectiveness under certain conditions. This article quantifies the impacts of soil characteristics on maize response to fertilizer in Zambia using a nationally representative sample of 1453 fields, combining economic, farm management and soil analysis data. Depending on soil regimes, average maize yield response estimates range from insignificant (0) to 7 maize kg per fertilizer kg. For the majority of farmers, the estimated average value cost ratio is between 1 and 2, meaning fertilizer use would be fiscally rational, barring uncertainty and transfer costs. Since transfer costs exist and outcomes are uncertain, however, many farmers may sensibly pause before deciding whether to adopt fertilizer. This suggests shifting the emphasis of chronically low fertilizer use in Africa away from explanations of \"market failure\" toward greater emphasis on improving fertilizer efficacy.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["William Burke","Emmanuel Frossard","Stephen Kabwe","T. S. Jayne"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.05.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5f1f8eac2ee34998","title":"Regional labor markets, commuting, and the economic impact of road pricing","abstract":"Cities provide the benefits that come with economic density but often face congested traffic and high unemployment. In this paper, we study economy-wide and distributional implications of congestion pricing in the presence of agglomeration externalities and unemployment. We develop a spatial general equilibrium model to show that indirect effects of time-invariant congestion tolls can lead to welfare losses for low-skilled urban residents by changing commuting patterns of high-skilled workers. Next, we reveal a set of policy designs that improve welfare across space and worker skill levels by combining time-sensitive road pricing, transport network capacity expansions, and toll revenue redistribution.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Toon Vandyck","Thomas F. Rutherford"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.07.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5f23a40f6084b856","title":"Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth","abstract":"We build a model of firm-level innovation, productivity growth, and reallocation featuring endogenous entry and exit. A new and central economic force is the selection between high- and low-type firms, which differ in terms of their innovative capacity. We estimate the parameters of the model using US Census microdata on firm-level output, R&D, and patenting. The model provides a good fit to the dynamics of firm entry and exit, output, and R&D. Taxing the continued operation of incumbents can lead to sizable gains (of the order of 1.4 percent improvement in welfare) by encouraging exit of less productive firms and freeing up skilled labor to be used for R&D by high-type incumbents. Subsidies to the R&D of incumbents do not achieve this objective because they encourage the survival and expansion of low-type firms.","wordCount":133,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Ufuk Akcigit","Harun Alp","Nicholas Bloom","William R. Kerr"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130470","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5f37c1a0b99cad13","title":"Market mechanisms and funding dynamics in equity crowdfunding","abstract":"Equity crowdfunding is a new form of entrepreneurial finance, in which investors do not receive perks or engage in pre-purchase of the product, but rather participate in the future cash flows of a firm. In this paper, we analyze what determines individual investment decisions in this new financial market. One important factor that may influence the behavior of investors is the way the portal allocates securities. We use unique data from four German equity crowdfunding portals to examine how the allocation mechanism affects funding dynamics. In contrast with the crowdfunding campaigns on Kickstarter, on which the typical pattern of project support is U shaped, we find that equity crowdfunding dynamics are L shaped under a first-come, first-served mechanism and U shaped under a second-price auction. The evidence also shows that investors base their decisions on information provided by the entrepreneur in the form of updates as well as by the investment behavior and comments of other crowd investors.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Lars Hornuf","Armin Schwienbacher"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.08.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5f3cb8fae10e4b0c","title":"Which smart electricity service contracts will consumers accept? The demand for compensation in a platform market","abstract":"This paper analyses the heterogeneity of household consumer preferences for electricity service contracts in a smart grid context. Platform pricing strategies that could incentivise consumers to participate in a two-sided electricity platform market are discussed. The research is based on original data from a discrete choice experiment on electricity service contracts that was conducted with 1,892 electricity consumers in Great Britain in 2015. We estimate a flexible mixed logit model in willingness to pay space and exploit the results in posterior analysis. The findings suggest that while consumers are willing to pay for technical support services, they are likely to demand significant compensation to share their usage and personally identifying data and to participate in automated demand response programs involving remote monitoring and control of electricity usage. Cross-subsidisation of consumers combining appropriate participation payments with sharing of bill savings could incentivise participation of the number of consumers required to provide the optimal level of demand response. We also examine the preference heterogeneity to suggest how, by targeting customers with specific characteristics, smart electricity service providers could significantly reduce their customer acquisition costs.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Laura-Lucia Richter","Michael G. Pollitt"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5f563d031921bd8a","title":"The role of institutions in shaping the growth-aid relationship","abstract":"Empirical evidence on the relationship between aid and economic growth is mixed and inconclusive. This paper proposes a theory to explain these contradictory findings. We build an endogenous growth model with a productive public good and homogeneous agents who allocate their time to both work and the appropriation of public resources. Aid increases public resources, raising the provision of the productive public good, but promotes rent-seeking. As recent empirical evidence suggests, a hump-shaped relationship between aid and growth emerges: too much aid is counterproductive for growth, particularly when institutions are weak. Aid transmits growth from the donor to the recipient country but harms income convergence and even prevents convergence among ex-ante identical countries when aid exceeds a certain threshold. Institutional improvements raise such a threshold. Thus, countries with lower income and lower institutional quality should receive less aid, unless an institutional reform is taken as a previous step to receive that aid.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Carlos Bethencourt","Fernando Perera‐Tallo"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103603","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5f5fdf5d7ece33b4","title":"Agglomeration externalities and productivity growth: US cities, 1880–1930","abstract":"We investigate the role of industrial structure in labour productivity growth in manufacturing in US cities during the ‘second industrial revolution’. We find that initially greater specialization was associated with faster subsequent productivity growth but that only the very high levels of diversity which obtained in some very large cities had a positive correlation. We interpret our results as demonstrating the existence of dynamic Marshallian externalities. The impact of industrial specialization in our sample of US cities after 1890 is found to have raised the level of labour productivity in manufacturing by about 4 per cent by 1920.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Alexander Klein","Nicholas Crafts"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12786","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5f694e50569b569e","title":"Public procurement cartels: A large-sample testing of screens using machine learning","abstract":"Due to the high budgetary costs of public procurement cartels, it is crucial to measure and understand them. The literature developed screens that work well for selected cartel types and with high quality data, but it didn’t produce generalisable knowledge supporting policy and law enforcement on typically available datasets. We simultaneously measure multiple cartel behaviours on publicly available data of 73 cartels from 7 European countries covering 2004-2021. We apply machine learning methods, using diverse cartel screens characterising pricing and bidding behaviours in a predictive model. Combining many indicators in a random forest algorithm achieves 70-84% prediction accuracy, distinguishing behavioural traces of confirmed cartels from non-cartels across different cartel types and countries (accuracy is 97% when trained and tested on a single cartel case, typical of the literature). Most screens contribute to prediction in line with theory. These results could improve cartel detection and investigations and support pro-competition policies.","wordCount":149,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Mihály Fazekas","Bence Tóth","Johannes Wachs","Aly Abdou"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103228","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5f770d392bb6915e","title":"Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends","abstract":"We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970 –2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment, and real interest rates across OECD countries.","wordCount":88,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Yunus Aksoy","Henrique S. Basso","Ron Smith","Tobias Grasl"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170114","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5f805f6b58662f0f","title":"How does China’s industrial policy affect firms’ R&D investment? Evidence from ‘Made in China 2025’","abstract":"Aimed at improving innovation capacity and upgrading technology of manufacturing industry, ‘Made in China 2025’ (CM2025), which relies on selective industrial policies, has attracted great attention. This paper investigates the effects of CM2025 on firms’ R&D investment using CEM-DID, a combination method based on the coarsened exact matching and the difference-in-difference. The method can effectively identify causal relationships without suffering from selection bias. Employing a panel data of 1,440 Chinese A-share listed firms from 2012 to 2018, we find firms with core business covered by the areas of CM2025 increase their R&D investment significantly after the policy intervention. Moreover, CM2025 significantly increases government subsidies and financial loans for treated firms, and both effects are larger for SOEs. This finding supports the critique that CM2025 goes against the competitive neutrality principle. No increase in innovation output and total factor productivity is found in the short-term. Our findings are enlightening for enacting better industrial policies.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Huwei Wen","Zhao Zhao"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1717429","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5f86648595d21315","title":"Cognitive Ability, Character Skills, and Learning to Play Equilibrium: A Level-<i>k</i>Analysis","abstract":"We investigate how cognitive ability and character skills influence the evolution of play toward Nash equilibrium in repeated strategic interactions. We find that more cognitively able subjects choose numbers closer to equilibrium, earn more, and converge more frequently to equilibrium play. We estimate a structural model of learning based on level k reasoning and find a positive relationship between cognitive ability and levels. Furthermore, the average level of more cognitively able subjects responds positively to the cognitive ability of their opponents. More agreeable and emotionally stable subjects also learn faster, although the effect of cognitive ability is stronger than that of personality.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["David Gill","Victoria L. Prowse"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688849","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5f8bf551cdb5d001","title":"What does a Deductible Do? The Impact of Cost-Sharing on Health Care Prices, Quantities, and Spending Dynamics","abstract":"Measuring consumer responsiveness to medical care prices is a central issue in health economics and a key ingredient in the optimal design and regulation of health insurance markets. We leverage a natural experiment at a large self-insured firm that required all of its employees to switch from an insurance plan that provided free health care to a nonlinear, high-deductible plan. The switch caused a spending reduction between 11.8% and 13.8% of total firm-wide health spending. We decompose this spending reduction into the components of (i) consumer price shopping, (ii) quantity reductions, and (iii) quantity substitutions and find that spending reductions are entirely due to outright reductions in quantity. We find no evidence of consumers learning to price shop after two years in high-deductible coverage. Consumers reduce quantities across the spectrum of health care services, including potentially valuable care (e.g., preventive services) and potentially wasteful care (e.g., imaging services). To better understand these changes, we study how consumers respond to the complex structure of the high-deductible contract. Consumers respond heavily to spot prices at the time of care, reducing their spending by 42% when under the deductible, conditional on their true expected end-of-year price and their prior year end-of-year marginal price. There is no evidence of learning to respond to the true shadow price in the second year post-switch.","wordCount":218,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Zarek Brot-Goldberg","Amitabh Chandra","Benjamin Handel","Jonathan Kolstad"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5f9337b6414a485a","title":"Optimal delta hedging for options","abstract":"As has been pointed out by a number of researchers, the normally calculated delta does not minimize the variance of changes in the value of a trader's position. This is because there is a non-zero correlation between movements in the price of the underlying asset and movements in the asset's volatility. The minimum variance delta takes account of both price changes and the expected change in volatility conditional on a price change. This paper determines empirically a model for the minimum variance delta. We test the model using data on options on the S&P 500 and show that it is an improvement over stochastic volatility models, even when the latter are calibrated afresh each day for each option maturity. We also present results for options on the S&P 100, the Dow Jones, individual stocks, and commodity and interest-rate ETFs.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["John Hull","Alan White"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.05.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5fa154d76022a147","title":"Exit versus Voice","abstract":"We study the relative effectiveness of exit (divestment and boycott) and voice (engagement) strategies in a world where companies generate externalities and some agents care about the social impact of their decisions. We show that if the majority of investors are even slightly socially responsible, voice achieves the socially optimal outcome. In contrast, exit does not unless everybody is significantly socially responsible. If the majority of investors are purely selfish, exit is a more effective strategy, but neither strategy generally achieves the first best. We also show that exit can sometimes reduce social welfare.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Eleonora Broccardo","Oliver Hart","Luigi Zingales"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720516","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5fafad70e55ba30c","title":"The great trade collapse: An evaluation of competing stories","abstract":"The reduction in international trade has been more than the reduction in economic activity during the 2008 financial crisis, against the one-to-one relationship between them implied by standard trade models. This so-called the Great Trade Collapse (GTC) has been investigated extensively in the literature resulting in alternative competing stories as potential explanations. By introducing and estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using 18 quarterly series from the USA, including those that represent the competing stories, this paper evaluates the contribution of each story to GTC. The results show that retail inventories have contributed the most to the collapse and the corresponding recovery, followed by protectionist policies, intermediate-input trade, and trade finance. Productivity and demand shocks have played negligible roles.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Hakan Yilmazkuday"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000683","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5fb41caed19728c2","title":"The Effect of War Risk on Managerial and Investor Behavior: Evidence from the Brussels Stock Exchange in the Pre-1914 Era","abstract":"With two news-based measures on war, I document that managers mitigated war risk through dividend cuts, arguably to establish a war chest. Moreover, I find that companies postponed their initial public offerings and that foreign companies were more likely to delist after the onset of wars. Investors reacted negatively to the increase in war news coverage. There is evidence of mean-reversion after a threat of war and a negative drift following the start of war. Finally, I highlight the importance of proximity to military conflicts. In general, the evidence indicates that both managers and investors became more risk averse as a consequence of war news.","wordCount":105,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Gertjan Verdickt"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000303","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5fbb5c436ec180f2","title":"List-rationalizable choice","abstract":"A choice function is list rational(izable) if there is a fixed list such that for each choice set, successive comparison of the alternatives by following the list retrieves the chosen alternative. We extend the formulation of list rationality to stochastic choice setup. We say two alternatives are related if the stochastic path independence condition is violated between these alternatives. We show that a random choice function is list rational if and only if this relation is acyclic. Our characterization for deterministic choice functions follows as a corollary. By using this characterization, we relate list rationality to two-stage choice procedures.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Kemal Yıldız"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1298","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-5fbc55910848a694","title":"Migrant children's take‐up of social health insurance: Experimental evidence from China","abstract":"There is mounting evidence on the importance of health insurance for children's health and well‐being. However, many disadvantaged families do not enroll their eligible children in social health insurance programs. This study examines the effectiveness of interventions aimed at increasing social health insurance enrollment for disadvantaged migrant children in Guangzhou, China. We conducted a two‐stage randomized controlled trial with a 3 × 2 design: (1) randomly assigning parents to a control group or one of two treatment groups, where they received digital information on eligibility or eligibility plus comparative benefits and costs; and (2) nudging half of the parents with text message reminders about the enrollment deadline. Informing parents about eligibility alone did not have any impact. However, providing information on eligibility plus comparative benefits and costs increased enrollment in social health insurance in Guangzhou by over 44% (9.4 percentage points). Nudging produced no significant impact. Exploiting treatment group assignment as an instrument for coverage, we were unable to detect any positive effects of having social health insurance in the first year after the intervention.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Menghan Shen","Zhiwei Tang","Xiaoxia Liang","Xiaoyang Ye"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22585","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5fc5a90f5c870ce3","title":"Pricing of project finance bonds: A comparative analysis of primary market spreads","abstract":"This paper provides a comparative analysis of project finance (PF) and traditional corporate finance (CF) bond spreads and pricing. Using a cross-section of 47,196 bonds issued worldwide in the 1993–2020 period, we show that PF and CF bonds are differently priced, PF bonds have higher spreads than comparable CF bonds, and although ratings are the most important pricing determinant for PF and CF bonds at issuance, investors rely on other contractual, macroeconomic, and firms' characteristics beyond these ratings. Our results do not support the hypothesis of PF transactions as mechanisms of reducing sponsoring firms' funding costs: the cost of borrowing affects financing choices and PF transactions' weighted average spread is higher than that of comparable CF bond deals. We also find that economies of scale, risk management, and information asymmetry arguments affect sponsoring firms' choice between PF and CF transactions.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Sebastião Guedes","João Pinto"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102429","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5fd32956c4a3a062","title":"Introducing a new measure of energy transition: Green quality of energy mix and its impact on CO2 emissions","abstract":"This paper introduces a novel measure of the energy transition, i.e., the green quality of energy mix (GREENQ) across the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Then, the paper examines the impact of the GREENQ on CO2 emissions in the panel dataset of 36 OECD countries from 1970 to 2021. The explanatory variables include per capita income, institutional quality and technology. Long-run panel data estimations indicate that per capita income, institutional quality and technology increase CO2 emissions. The novel evidence is that the GREENQ is negatively related to the level of CO2 emissions. These findings are robust to employ different panel data estimation techniques. Potential policy implications are also discussed.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Chi Keung Marco Lau","Giray Gözgör","Mantu Kumar Mahalik","Gupteswar Patel","Jing Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106702","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5fd63d67bc48540a","title":"Accountability and Information in Elections","abstract":"Elections are thought to improve voter welfare through two channels: effective accountability (i.e., providing incentives for politicians to take costly effort) and electoral selection (i.e., retaining politicians with characteristics voters value). We show that there may be a trade-off between these two channels. Higher levels of effective accountability may hinder the voters' ability to learn about the politicians. In turn, this may hinder electoral selection and be detrimental to voter welfare. This is because increasing effective accountability directly impacts how informative governance outcomes are about an incumbent's type. We show that, if politicians' effort and type are local substitutes (resp. complements) in the production of governance outcomes, an increase in effective accountability corresponds to a decrease (resp. increase) in Blackwell (1951) informativeness. We also show that effective accountability can vary even absent institutional variation. In particular, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for there to be multiple equilibria that differ in terms of both effective accountability and electoral selection. Overall, our findings have implications for voter behavior, the efficacy of institutional reforms, and voter welfare.","wordCount":175,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Scott Ashworth","Ethan Bueno de Mesquita","Amanda Friedenberg"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150349","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-5fd925651f1c1fe3","title":"The economic impact of UNESCO World Heritage: Evidence from Italy","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of the UNESCO World Heritage List (WHL) inscription on income and property values in Italian municipalities with heritage sites inscribed during the past two decades. To address the selection bias and identify the causal impact of inscription, we focus on municipalities having sites included in the national ‘tentative list’ (i.e., a list of candidates for subsequent nomination) and exploit the plausibly exogenous timing of inscription conditional upon being on the list. The evidence from a heterogeneity-robust event study analysis suggests that WHL listing has a significant impact on income and property prices in urban areas. Possible underlying mechanisms are discussed.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Enrico Bertacchini","Federico Revelli","Roberto Zotti"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103996","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-5fdbb733bd0f2fc0","title":"Inflation and cryptocurrencies revisited: A time-scale analysis","abstract":"This letter revisits the time-series relation between cryptocurrency prices and forward inflation expectations. Using wavelet time-scale techniques, a positive link between cryptocurrencies and forward inflation rates is identified, focused on a brief period surrounding the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This coincides with a rapid and synchronized decrease in cryptocurrency prices and forward inflation expectations, followed by a swift recovery to pre-crisis levels. Outside of the crisis period, we find no clear evidence of any inflation hedging capacity of Bitcoin or Ethereum during times of increasing forward inflation expectations.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Thomas Conlon","Shaen Corbet","Richard McGee"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109996","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-5fdef10f0b117957","title":"Back to work or stay at home? Family policies and maternal employment in Finland","abstract":"The employment effects of family policies depend on the mother’s labor market attachment and on the age of the child. We study the effects of child home care (cash-for-care) and private day care allowances on mothers’ return to employment after childbirth. Our identification strategy exploits changes in municipal-level subsidies. We find that higher private day care allowances have no effect while higher home care allowances increase the length of home care. A 100-euro higher level of home care allowance prolongs home care by 2–3 months, on average. The home care allowance combined with low labor market attachment and low earnings potential pre-birth delay the return to employment. However, the effect of the allowance diminishes over time. Higher subsidies have no impact by the time a child turns two. Reductions in subsidies stimulate a faster return to employment.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Eva Österbacka","Tapio Räsänen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00843-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-600c4973a9337ddf","title":"Does rent control increase tenant unemployment?","abstract":"This paper proposes and tests the hypothesis that rent control increases tenant unemployment. Using microdata from New York City between 2002 and 2017, we find that rent stabilization increases tenants’ probability of unemployment by more than four percentage points, and the effect is especially pronounced among tenants with unearned income. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable strategy that exploits the local relative availability of rent-stabilized units at the time of move-in as an exogenous source of variation. We propose a job-search model to explain the disincentive channel underlying our results. These findings highlight the potential unintended consequences of rent control.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Hanchen Jiang","Luis Quintero","Xi Yang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103790","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6013079ae18f2570","title":"The impact of high temperatures on performance in work-related activities","abstract":"High temperatures can have a negative effect on work-related activities because workers may experience difficulties concentrating or have to reduce effort in order to cope with heat. We investigate how temperature affects performance of professional tennis players in outdoor singles matches in big tournaments. We find that performance significantly decreases with ambient temperature. This result is robust to including wind speed and air pollution in the analysis. There are no differences between men and women. However, there is some heterogeneity in the magnitude of the temperature effect in other dimensions. In particular, we find that the temperature effect is smaller when there is more at stake. Our findings also suggest that the negative temperature effect is smaller if the heat lasts, i.e. there is some adaptation to high temperatures.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Matteo Picchio","Jan C. van Ours"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102509","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-60226108e67c9354","title":"Bunching in real-estate markets: Regulated building heights in New York City","abstract":"This paper presents a real-estate application of the bunching methodology widely used in other areas of applied microeconomics. The focus is on regulated building heights in New York City, where developers can exceed a parcel’s regulated height by incurring additional costs. Using the bunching methodology, we estimate the magnitude of these extra costs, with the results showing a modest increase in the marginal cost of floor space beyond the regulated building height. We use these estimates to predict the additional floor space that would be created by complete removal of building-height regulation in NYC. While this last exercise is circumscribed by our focus on a limited number of zoning categories, the results suggest that New York could secure notably more housing through lighter height regulation.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Jan K. Brueckner","David Leather","Miguel Zerecero"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103683","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-60252f5c0515122d","title":"Does Home Production Drive Structural Transformation?","abstract":"Using new home production data for the United States, we estimate a model of structural transformation with a home production sector, allowing for both non-homotheticity of preferences and differential productivity growth in each sector. We report two main findings. First, the estimation results show that home services have a lower income elasticity than market services. Second, the slowdown in home labor productivity, which started in the late 70s, is a key determinant of the rise of market services. Our counterfactual experiment shows that, without the slowdown, the share of market services would have been lower by 7.5 percent in 2010.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Alessio Moro","Solmaz Moslehi","Satoshi Tanaka"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150109","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-603abecc0b4cc039","title":"Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity under Firm Heterogeneity","abstract":"Empirical work has drawn attention to the high degree of productivity differences within industries and their role in resource allocation. This paper examines the allocational efficiency of such markets. Productivity differences introduce two new margins of potential inefficiency: selection of the right distribution of firms and allocation of the right quantities across firms. We show that these considerations affect welfare and policy analysis, and market power across firms leads to distortions in resource allocation. Demand-side elasticities determine how resources are misallocated and when increased competition from market expansion provides welfare gains.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Swati Dhingra","John Morrow"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700732","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-60437a10822dbc2b","title":"WTO accession and tariff evasion","abstract":"This study documents some unintended consequences of the World Trade Organization (WTO) membership by providing evidence on displacement of tariff evasion driven by the WTO accession process. The analysis focuses on the WTO Customs Valuation Agreement (CVA) which limits the discretion of customs officials when it comes to assessing the price of imports. While prior to the WTO accession customs officials are free to use their own judgment or apply minimum or reference prices, after their country joined the WTO they are mandated to accept the invoice price issued by the exporter. If customs officials enjoy discretion with respect to assessing the import price, they may assist importers with tariff evasion in exchange for bribes. Removing such discretion limits their ability to facilitate misrepresentation of import prices. Using data on 15 countries which joined the WTO between 1996 and 2008, we find a positive relationship between underreporting of import prices and the tariff rate, which is expected as the incentive to evade increases with the tariff rate. Importantly, this relationship disappears after a country joins the WTO. This result is consistent with the CVA closing one channel for corrupt behavior. However, we also find that changes to customs valuation procedures induce importers to seek alternative ways of tariff evasion, such as underreporting of quantities and product misclassification. The overall level of evasion remains unchanged.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Beata Smarzynska Javorcik","Gaia Narciso"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.11.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6078c0ca9095fccb","title":"Manipulability of Stable Mechanisms","abstract":"We study the manipulability of stable matching mechanisms and show that manipulability comparisons are equivalent to preference comparisons: for any agent, a mechanism is more manipulable than another if and only if this agent prefers the latter to the former. One important implication is that when agents on one side of the market have unit demand, no stable matching mechanism is less manipulable than another for all agents.","wordCount":68,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Peter Chen","Michael Egesdal","Marek Pycia","M. Bumin Yenmez"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150035","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6082a1efbd6f5a30","title":"Firming Up Inequality","abstract":"We use a massive, matched employer-employee database for the United States to analyze the contribution of firms to the rise in earnings inequality from 1978 to 2013. We find that one-third of the rise in the variance of (log) earnings occurred within firms, whereas two-thirds of the rise occurred due to a rise in the dispersion of average earnings between firms. However, this rising between-firm variance is not accounted for by the firms themselves but by a widening gap between firms in the composition of their workers. This compositional change can be split into two roughly equal parts: high-wage workers became increasingly likely to work in high-wage firms (i.e., sorting increased), and high-wage workers became increasingly likely to work with each other (i.e., segregation rose). In contrast, we do not find a rise in the variance of firm-specific pay once we control for the worker composition in firms. Finally, we find that two-thirds of the rise in the within-firm variance of earnings occurred within mega (10,000+ employee) firms, which saw a particularly large increase in the variance of earnings compared with smaller firms.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jae Song","David J. Price","Fatih Guvenen","Nicholas Bloom","Till von Wachter"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-608634c6db820bf3","title":"Randomization advice and ambiguity aversion","abstract":"We design and implement lab experiments to evaluate the normative appeal of behavior arising from models of ambiguity-averse preferences. We report two main empirical findings. First, we demonstrate that behavior reflects an incomplete understanding of the problem, providing evidence that subjects do not act on the basis of preferences alone. Second, additional clarification of the decision making environment pushes subjects’ choices in the direction of ambiguity aversion models, regardless of whether or not the choices are also consistent with subjective expected utility, supporting the position that subjects find such behavior normatively appealing.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Christoph Kuzmics","Brian W. Rogers","Xiannong Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09436-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6093ffe2daca8c32","title":"Robots, Natives and Immigrants in US local labor markets","abstract":"I analyze the impact of industrial robots on the employment of natives and immigrants in US local labor markets between 1990 and 2014. The proposed mechanism, through which robot adoption affects the employment of natives and immigrants differentially, is based on two facts: first, robots tend to displace workers based on the task content of occupations, and second, natives and immigrants in the US differ in their task specialization. Therefore, robots should affect their employment unequally. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in robot exposure across US local labor markets over time, I test this mechanism and find that the effect on immigrants is roughly 1.76 times greater than that observed for natives. Specifically, I find that one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio of natives and immigrants by 0.38 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. I attribute these results to the fact that immigrants specialize in jobs or tasks at risk of being automated.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Muhammad Aslam Asgha Tariq Javed"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102456","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6098693cc968547a","title":"Private labels in marketplaces","abstract":"Regulators are concerned that by introducing their own private labels, dominant online marketplace operators distort competition in their own favor. This paper addresses this concern by studying how online marketplaces differ from classic retailers with a wholesale arrangement. In online marketplaces individual sellers set their own consumer prices, while the marketplace operator collects fees from their sales. I show that when introducing a private label, the marketplace operator does not have an incentive to distort competition and foreclose the outside seller. On the contrary, when introducing a private label, there is an incentive to decrease the fee charged to the outside seller and to vertically differentiate its own product in order to protect the seller’s channel. However, relative to the wholesale model of classic retailers, online marketplace operators offer a lower quality with higher consumer prices, leading to less improvement in consumer surplus and potentially less harm to the outside seller.","wordCount":151,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Radostina Shopova"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102949","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-609af86f58656ced","title":"Quasi-hyperbolic discounting under recursive utility and consumption–investment decisions","abstract":"This paper examines an Epstein–Zin recursive utility with quasi-hyperbolic discounting in continuous time. I directly define the utility process supporting the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation in the literature and consider Merton's optimal consumption–investment problem for application. I show that a solution to the HJB equation is the value function. The numerical and mathematical analyses show that unlike in the constant relative risk aversion utility, present bias in the Epstein–Zin utility causes economically significant overconsumption, maintaining a plausible attitude toward risks. Additionally, the sophisticated agent's preproperation occurs if and only if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is larger than one.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Yuki Shigeta"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105518","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-60a4da1304721f8c","title":"Robots and Employment: Evidence from Japan, 1978–2017","abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between industrial robots and employment in Japan on the basis of a unique dataset that allows us to calculate the unit price of robots. Our model combines standard factor demand theory with a recent task-based approach to derive a simple estimation equation between robot prices and employment, and our identification strategy leverages heterogeneous applications of robots across industries and heterogeneous price changes across applications. We find that the decline in robot prices increased both the number of robots and employment by raising the productivity and production scale of robot-adopting industries.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Daisuke Adachi","Daiji Kawaguchi","Yukiko Saito"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/723205","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-60aa315af462017f","title":"Household consumption patterns and income inequality in EU countries: Scenario analysis for a fair transition towards low-carbon economies","abstract":"The growing awareness of the current and future consequences of climate change has led to a range of international commitments aimed at ensuring sustainable development as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Paris Agreement. These agreements reflect a concern of how to reduce carbon emissions and the pathway towards environmental improvement. Recent literature has pointed out the role of households as direct and indirect drivers of environmental impacts and as key agents in achieving low-carbon economies and climate-resilient development. Disparities in income distribution and lifestyles within and among countries, however, entail a different starting point for each country to reach sustainable pathways. The EU is fully committed to delivering on the United Nations 2030 Agenda and its implementation. Inequality continues to be a significant concern, reflected in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. In this context, we explore the relationships between household consumption patterns in the EU, income inequality, and global carbon emissions trends, using an environmentally extended multiregional and multisectoral input-output model. We study the trends in global carbon emissions associated with the different household consumption patterns and income categories over 15 years, and evaluate the role of income distribution, consumption patterns, and technological conditions by country and income group. Additionally, we study, through certain scenarios, the potential achievement of double dividends, by alleviating poverty and reducing emissions.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Rosa Duarte","Sara Miranda-Buetas","Cristina Sarasa"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105614","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-60afa795bdd4a809","title":"Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics","abstract":"How do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation, and creative destruction? We extend a Schumpeterian growth model with political connections that help firms ease bureaucratic and regulatory burden. The model highlights how political connections influence an economy's business dynamism and innovation, and generates a number of implications guiding our empirical analysis. We construct a new large‐scale data set for the period 1993–2014, on the universe of firms, workers, and politicians, complemented with corporate financial statements, patent data, and election data, so as to define connected firms as those employing local politicians. We identify a leadership paradox: market leaders are much more likely to be politically connected, but much less likely to innovate. Political connections relate to a higher rate of survival, as well as growth in employment and revenues, but not in productivity—a result that we also confirm using the regression discontinuity design. At the aggregate level, gains from political connections do not offset losses stemming from lower reallocation and growth.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Ufuk Akcigit","Salomé Baslandze","Francesca Lotti"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta18338","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-60bd9740184c2c19","title":"Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior","abstract":"We estimate the effect of temporary tax incentives on equipment investment using shifts in accelerated depreciation. Analyzing data for over 120,000 firms, we present three findings. First, bonus depreciation raised investment in eligible capital relative to ineligible capital by 10.4 percent between 2001 and 2004 and 16.9 percent between 2008 and 2010. Second, small firms respond 95 percent more than big firms. Third, firms respond strongly when the policy generates immediate cash flows, but not when cash flows only come in the future. This heterogeneity materially affects investment-weighted estimates and supports models in which financial frictions or fixed costs amplify investment responses.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Eric Zwick","James Mahon"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20140855","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-60c0f52d6146f9ae","title":"A note on the implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share","abstract":"We introduce automation into a standard model of capital accumulation and show that (i) there is the possibility of perpetual growth, even in the absence of technological progress; (ii) the long-run economic growth rate declines with population growth, which is consistent with the available empirical evidence; (iii) there is a unique share of savings diverted to automation that maximizes long-run growth; and (iv) automation explains around 14% of the observed decline of the labor share over the last decades in the United States.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Klaus Prettner"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000098","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-60c4fba5f2c8e7f1","title":"Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks","abstract":"The growth of clean energies and technologies requires a sound financial market, while equity and bond markets are exposed to geopolitical risks. We investigate the response of green equity and green bonds to newly develop decomposed measures of geopolitical risks, including geopolitical acts, threats, and narrow and broad measures. To this end, we apply two robust methods; namely, the cross-quantilogram and quantile and quantile (QQ) approaches, to estimate the conditional and unconditional volatility spillovers considering short, medium, and long term. Surprisingly our empirical investigation demonstrates that all measures of geopolitical risk (except geopolitical acts) transmit positive shocks to the green investments (both equity and bonds) from bearish to bullish market states. At the bullish state, green markets respond negatively to the highest quantiles of all measures of geopolitical risks under a long memory. However, the geopolitical acts negatively shock the green bonds and green equity at some extreme quantiles. Our empirical findings are beneficial by transmitting opportunities and preventing risks for investment decision-making in the green markets, considering geopolitical risks.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Kazi Sohag","Shawkat Hammoudeh","Ahmed H. Elsayed","Oleg Mariev","Yulia Safonova"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106068","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-60c7643f23843439","title":"The role of demographics and migration for the future of economic growth in China","abstract":"China’s real GDP has been growing by almost 10 percent a year for the last three decades. For how long should we expect this spectacularly high growth to continue? We propose a quantitative two sector model with segmented labor markets and financial frictions to evaluate the prospects for China’s future growth under different policy scenarios. In our model the high growth rate observed in China since the early 1990s is fueled by the large increase in urban labor supply, because of rural–urban migration, and the emergence of private enterprises that absorb those migrant workers. Our simulations suggest that the rapid aging of its population and the decrease of rural migration should significantly decelerate urban labor force and economic growth starting around 2020. Through a counterfactual with a fixed age distribution, we find that population aging is responsible for the deceleration of economic growth between 2020 and 2040. We show that substantial relaxation of labor market segmentation and financial constraints faced by private enterprises could improve efficiency substantially and delay this process of growth deceleration by one decade.","wordCount":177,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Yan Wang","Juan Carlos Conesa"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104076","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-60dcadd3ba981475","title":"Unhappy Cities","abstract":"There are persistent differences in self-reported subjective well-being across US metropolitan areas, and residents of declining cities appear less happy than others. Yet some people continue to move to these areas, and newer residents appear to be as unhappy as longer-term residents. While historical data on happiness are limited, the available facts suggest that cities that are now declining were also unhappy in their more prosperous past. These facts support the view that individuals do not maximize happiness alone but include it in the utility function along with other arguments. People may trade off happiness against other competing objectives.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Edward L. Glaeser","Joshua D. Gottlieb","Oren Ziv"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684044","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-60e24452e66f4983","title":"Individual characteristics associated with risk and time preferences: A multi country representative survey","abstract":"This paper empirically analyzes how individual characteristics are associated with risk aversion, loss aversion, time discounting, and present bias. To this end, we conduct a large-scale demographically representative survey across eight European countries. We elicit preferences using incentivized multiple price lists and jointly estimate preference parameters to account for their structural dependencies. Our findings suggest that preferences are linked to a variety of individual characteristics such as age, gender, and income as well as some personal values. We also report evidence on the relationship between cognitive ability and preferences. Incentivization, stake size, and the order of presentation of binary choices matter, underlining the importance of controlling for these factors when eliciting economic preferences.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Thomas Meißner","Xavier Gassmann","Corinne Faure","Joachim Schleich"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09383-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-60e4555498e1e19e","title":"Learning coalition formation under an agglomeration bonus: Impacts on coalition structure and scheme performance","abstract":"Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have demonstrated the potential of coordination incentives like the agglomeration bonus for the establishment of species habitat networks in agricultural landscapes. Less well understood is the social process behind this coordination, and how it affects the performance of the instrument. In the present paper this issue is addressed by simulating the coalition formation between several landowners in a stylized but structurally realistic landscape. Rather than assuming perfectly informed rational decision makers, the landowners are modeled as learning agents. A variety of learning strategies is considered. While these affect the coalition structure they have comparatively little influence on the land-use dynamics and the scheme expenditure, suggesting that knowledge about the details of the coordination process may be less relevant for predicting the performance of an agglomeration bonus. Instead, the performance is shown to mainly depend on the economic settings, such as the spatial correlation of the conservation costs, the spatial distribution of the landowners’ properties, and the presence or absence of side payments between the landowners – where the present results largely confirm the results of previous studies. A weak relationship is observed, though, between the average size of the coalitions on the one hand and the ecological scheme performance and scheme expenditure on the other. Confirming previous studies, budget-effectiveness gains of the agglomeration bonus are limited.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Martin Drechsler"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101512","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-60e6fe07cc9743d3","title":"The role of environmental, social, and governance rating on corporate debt structure","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) rating on a firm’s debt structure. We find that optimal (market and book) leverage ratios and information asymmetry are reduced when firms become ESG rated. More importantly, ESG rated firms redistribute their financing sources from public debt (bonds issuing) to private debt (bank loans). These results are attributed to the incentive of ESG rated firms to avoid debt-overhang and underinvestment issues and to the fact that the ESG rating conveys valuable information to lenders leading to better access towards more internal sources of financing, such as bank loans over debt issuing. We further find that the substitution effect is more pronounced for firms with high financial pressure, low growth opportunities and specialized assets. Finally, these results remain valid under various robustness and endogeneity tests.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Panagiotis Asimakopoulos","Stylianos Asimakopoulos","Xinyu Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102488","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-60fb5a8c84cfe9d4","title":"A double-bounded risk-risk trade-off analysis of heatwave-related mortality risk: Evidence from India","abstract":"As climate variability is increasing, extreme events such as temperature fluctuations are expected to become more frequent. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are especially vulnerable to heat-related variability and its ensuing impacts on mortality. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand how citizens in LMICs trade-off climate-related mortality risks with other risks such as traffic accidents, and what values they place on reducing such risks. As populations in LMICs are income-constrained, we adopt a non-monetary, risk-risk trade-off (RRTO) valuation method instead of the standard willingness-to-pay stated preference-based approach. We estimate the resulting risk premium for heatwave-related mortality risks through an adapted double-bounded, dichotomous choice approach to establish whether, on average, people value avoiding these risks more compared to reducing traffic risks. Using a sample of over 2,300 individuals from across seven states in India, a country with one of the highest heat-related mortality globally, we estimate the heatwave risk mortality premium to be between 2.2–2.9, indicating that on average, individuals weigh reducing heatwave-related mortality risks more than two times that of reducing traffic accident mortality risks. Based on a standard benefit transfer methodology for LMICs, this premium translates to a Value of Statistical Life (VSL) of USD 0.37–2.61 million for India.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Susan Chilton","Darren Duxbury","Irene Mussio","Jytte Seested Nielsen","Smriti Sharma"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09422-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-61037a95b131abdd","title":"Income inequality and export‐oriented commercialization in colonial Africa: Evidence from six countries","abstract":"Limited knowledge of African historical inequality trajectories hampers our understanding of inequality outcomes today and leads to a major omission in debates about global inequality. Economies in colonial Africa were characterized by a process of export‐oriented commercialization. We hypothesize that this process itself, the capital intensity of the commodities produced, and the relative importance of European and Asian expatriates and settlers in the economy shaped heterogeneous inequality outcomes. We evaluate these hypotheses using 33 social tables from six predominately agricultural countries between 1914 and 1969. Social tables capture income across the full distribution, aggregated in classes. We assess and improve the commensurability of the different social tables. We then apply different inequality metrics, and find that Gini and Theil coefficients and Inequality Extraction Ratios rose over time. Gini coefficients moved in conjunction with the real value of commodity exports per capita. Using Theil decompositions, we observe a trade‐off between inequality among African classes on the one hand, and among non‐Africans and between races on the other. Whenever present, non‐Africans captured a large share of the export profits. Inequality patterns towards the end of the period suggest that capital‐intensive commodities were associated with higher levels of inequality in the agricultural sector.","wordCount":200,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Ellen Hillbom","Jutta Bolt","Michiel de Haas","Federico Tadei"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13304","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-61040c2517570b2e","title":"Vertical contracts in search markets","abstract":"This paper studies a simple model to underline the importance of consumer search for understanding wholesale contracts between manufacturers and retailers. The model has one manufacturer and two retailers who compete in a homogeneous goods market where the wholesale contract is unobserved by consumers. If the manufacturer is in the position to offer two-part tariffs, the model without search either does not have an equilibrium wholesale contract (if retailers hold passive beliefs) due to the well-known opportunism problem or it is characterized by the absence of a fixed fee (when retailers hold symmetric beliefs). With consumer search, an equilibrium wholesale contract always exists (even if retailers hold passive beliefs) overcoming the opportunism problem and is always characterized by some fixed fee. If the manufacturer offers linear wholesale contracts, the differences between the models with and without consumer search are less pronounced, but remain even if the search cost vanishes. Thus, the vertical contracting literature cannot simply ignore search costs by saying that they are probably small and can therefore be neglected.","wordCount":171,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Maarten Janssen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.102527","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-61150dd4b41b3303","title":"Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather","abstract":"This article evaluates the effects of annual fluctuations in weather on employment in rural Mexico to gain insight into the potential labour market implications of climate change. Using a 28-year panel on individual employment, we find that years with a high occurrence of heat lead to a reduction in local employment, particularly for wage work and non-farm labour. Extreme heat also increases migration domestically from rural to urban areas and internationally to the US. A medium emissions scenario implies that increases in extreme heat may decrease local employment by up to 1.4% and climate change may increase migration by 1.4%.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Katrina Jessoe","Dale T. Manning","J. Edward Taylor"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12448","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-611e7852c460f8df","title":"Demand elasticities for fresh meat and welfare effects of meat taxes in Germany","abstract":"This paper assesses the effect of different meat tax designs in Germany including increasing the value-added tax as well as two climate-gas-emission-sensitive excise tax scenarios. For the simulation study, we first estimate price and expenditure elasticities for fresh meat for different household types using data from the GfK ConsumerScan FreshFood panel over the period 2012–14. The estimated elasticities are used to derive budget and welfare effects for the tax scenarios. A general rise in the value-added tax from 7% to 19% leads to a welfare loss of 0.83 euros per household per month. Disentangling the effect by household group according to income and age shows that low-income and older households experience a higher welfare loss and bear a larger tax burden relative to their income compared to low-income and younger households, respectively. Comparing the different taxation scenarios highlights the comparative efficiency of excise taxes and the importance to consider effects on older households.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Jutta Roosen","Matthias Staudigel","Sebastian Rahbauer"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102194","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6133a53a5b5d7d3b","title":"Investment Strategies and Corporate Behaviour with Socially Responsible Investors: A Theory of Active Ownership","abstract":"Socially responsible investors constitute an important force in today's global financial markets. This paper examines conditions under which socially responsible investors induce companies to behave responsibly. We develop an asset pricing model in which some shareholders are active owners, that is, they engage companies by voting on strategic decisions. Differences of objective among shareholders arise because socially responsible investors value corporate externalities. In our baseline model, we show that a firm may choose a responsible strategy even if the majority of investors are not responsible. We also demonstrate that such a choice of a responsible strategy might be fragile because it might depend on investors' self‐fulfilling beliefs. We then extend our baseline model to analyse the link between divestment and engagement strategies, the case with multiple firms, the role of benefit corporation charters, and the impact of a large investor.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Christian Gollier","Sébastien Pouget"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12436","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-613a9040eba001b9","title":"Do measures of risk attitude in the laboratory predict behavior under risk in and outside of the laboratory?","abstract":"We consider the external validity of laboratory measures of risk attitude. Based on a large-scale experiment using a representative panel of the Dutch population, we test if these measures can explain two different types of behavior: (i) behavior in laboratory risky financial decisions, and (ii) behavior in naturally-occurring field behavior under risk (financial, health and employment decisions). We find that measures of risk attitude are related to behavior in laboratory financial decisions and the most complex measures are outperformed by simpler measures. However, measures of risk attitude are not related to risk-taking in the field, calling into question the methods currently used for the purpose of measuring actual risk preferences. We conclude that while the external validity of measures of risk attitude holds in closely related frameworks, this validity is compromised in more remote settings.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Gary Charness","Thomas García","Theo Offerman","Marie Claire Villeval"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09325-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-613d6394244399fb","title":"Competition for Advertisers and for Viewers in Media Markets","abstract":"Standard models of advertising‐financed media assume consumers patronise a single‐media platform, precluding effective competition for advertisers. Such competition ensues if consumers multi‐home. The principle of incremental pricing implies that multi‐homing consumers are less valuable to platforms. Then entry of new platforms decreases advertisement prices, while a merger increases them, and advertisement‐financed platforms may suffer if a public broadcaster carries advertisements. Platforms may bias content against multi‐homing consumers, especially if consumers highly value overlapping content and/or second impressions have low value.","wordCount":80,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Simon P. Anderson","Øystein Foros","Hans Jarle Kind"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12428","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-614d5a7ebbe05eab","title":"Examining crude oil price outlook amidst substitute energy price and household energy expenditure in the USA: A novel nonparametric multivariate QQR approach","abstract":"The outlook of crude oil prices has sparsely been empirically examined especially from the critical perspectives of energy expenditure per household, retail electricity prices, and environmental indicators. Given the enormous macroeconomic and socioeconomic effects of crude oil price amidst the fundamentals, this study examines the dynamics of the oil price outlook amidst energy demand (measured by energy expenditure per household), retail electricity price i.e., substitute price, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States of America (USA) over the period 1970 to 2040. This study offers two main innovations: first, it extends the bivariate nonparametric Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) to the multivariate case. Second, the analysis incorporates projected data series, which provides useful policy insights. The empirical results show evidence of time-varying effects of energy expenditure per household, retail electricity price, and CO2 emissions across the quantiles of crude energy prices. The results further show that the effect of energy demand through household energy expenditures is positive and stronger at the lower quantiles of crude oil price, which corresponds to periods of low crude oil prices. Furthermore, the effects of retail electricity price and CO2 emissions are negative and stronger in the mid-quantiles of crude oil price. This suggests that retail electricity prices and environmental indicator dampen crude oil prices during periods of low crude oil prices. These findings are robust to multivariate Quantile regression and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) estimates. Therefore, our study suggests time-varying policies to dampen the effects of energy demand, retail electricity price, and environmental indicator on crude oil prices in the USA.","wordCount":258,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Andrew Adewale Alola","Oktay Özkan","Ojonugwa Usman"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106613","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-615d02c979ec1029","title":"The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy","abstract":"We study the effects of supply disruptions - for instance due to energy price shocks or the emergence of a pandemic - in an economy with Keynesian unemployment and endogenous productivity growth. By temporarily disrupting investment, negative supply shocks generate permanent output losses - or scarring effects. By inducing a negative wealth effect, scarring effects depress aggregate demand, which may even fall below the exogenous fall in supply. However, that scarring effects depress aggregate demand does not necessarily translate into low rates of inflation. On the contrary, scarring effects may reinforce and prolong the inflationary impact of supply disruptions. A contractionary monetary policy response may end up deepening scarring effects and increasing inflation in the medium run. A successful disinflation may require a policy mix of monetary tightening and fiscal interventions aiming at supporting business investment and the economy’s productive capacity.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Luca Fornaro","Martin Wolf"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.04.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6163c90480e171ab","title":"State-Level Antitrust Enforcement: Revisiting the Determinants","abstract":"State-level antitrust enforcement has historically been an important tool that promotes competition in the U.S. The total number of cases that were filed between 1990 and 2006 averaged 22 per year, and generally fluctuated in a fairly tight band. In an earlier article we found that political and macroeconomic variables tended to explain well these filing patterns. However, since then the number of state cases filed has dropped dramatically and averaged just 12 cases over the five years that preceded Covid. In this paper we consider again the political economy of antitrust enforcement at the state level: we find similar explanations to our 2010 article, with the size of the state economy, the macroeconomic conditions that face the state, and the political party in charge of enforcement continuing to drive antitrust filing activity.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Robert M. Feinberg","Kara M. Reynolds"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09970-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-616616fc644581b9","title":"Transaction costs and competition policy","abstract":"This paper evaluates current antitrust policy in light of our current understanding of how transaction costs influence the ability of firms and consumers to deal with market power. The paper shows how the failure to consider transaction costs can lead to erroneous policy decisions. Many models employed today make simplifying assumptions about transaction costs that can lead to biased results in analyzing vertical and horizontal issues. The increased ability to monitor the effect of promotional behavior should cause us to reexamine whether free riding justifications, previously accepted as justifications for various vertical restrictions, still hold. Nash bargaining and Nash-in-Nash models raise concerns about the simplified assumptions assumed in which supposedly high transaction costs restrict the choice and form of the assumed competitive alternatives. The increasing importance of two-sided markets together with an understanding of transaction costs is needed to understand antitrust conduct in those markets. The recent Amex case is likely to lead to confused litigation in these types of markets. Finally, the establishment of property rights for a consumer to his or her data could fail to remedy antitrust concerns that certain dominant firms are immune to competition because consumers do not own their data unless that property right is limited so that consumers cannot exclusively sell their data to one firm.","wordCount":213,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Dennis W. Carlton"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.102539","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-616a1fd68c85b2fa","title":"Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century","abstract":"How important is human capital at the top of the U.S. income distribution? A primary source of top income is private “pass-through” business profit, which can include entrepreneurial labor income for tax reasons. This article asks whether top pass-through profit mostly reflects human capital, defined as all inalienable factors embodied in business owners, rather than financial capital. Tax data linking 11 million firms to their owners show that top pass-through profit accrues to working-age owners of closely held mid-market firms in skill-intensive industries. Pass-through profit falls by three-quarters after owner retirement or premature death. Classifying three-quarters of pass-through profit as human capital income, we find that the typical top earner derives most of her income from human capital, not financial capital. Growth in pass-through profit is explained by both rising productivity and a rising share of value added accruing to owners.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Matthew Smith","Danny Yagan","Owen Zidar","Eric Zwick"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-616c1f1ccf8b5071","title":"Monetary policy in advanced and emerging economies","abstract":"We are motivated by central bank responses to the rise in inflation in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic and investigate monetary policy behavior in advanced and emerging economies. We speak to the debate on whether the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies is fundamentally different from that in advanced economies. We also address the issue of whether the common practice of using market rates (instead of policy rates) to proxy for the stance of monetary policy leads to different conclusions regarding the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging economies. Using time series data for the G7 and EM7 countries, we show that the conventional wisdom that monetary policy in emerging economies is different from monetary policy in advanced economies still holds.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Apostolos Serletis","Cosmas Dery"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000105","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6175a70e578bf8de","title":"The employment and redistributive effects of reducing or eliminating minimum wage tip credits","abstract":"Recent policy debate on minimum wages has focused not only on raising the minimum wage, but on eliminating the tip credit for restaurant workers. We use data on past variation in tip credits—or minimum wages for restaurant workers—to provide evidence on the potential impacts of eliminating (or reducing) the tip credit. Our evidence points to higher tipped minimum wages (smaller tip credits) reducing jobs among tipped restaurant workers, without positive earnings effects on those who remain employed sufficiently large to raise total earnings in this sector. And most of our evidence provides no indication that higher tipped minimum wages would be well targeted to poor or low‐income families or reduce the likelihood of being poor or very low income.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["David Neumark","Maysen Yen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22450","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6181905b46938238","title":"Bitcoin for energy commodities before and after the December 2013 crash: diversifier, hedge or safe haven?","abstract":"We study the relationship between Bitcoin and commodities by assessing the ability of Bitcoin to act as a diversifier, hedge, or safe haven against daily movements in commodities in general, and energy commodities in particular. We focus on energy commodities because energy, in the form of electricity, is an essential input in the Bitcoin production. For the entire period, results show that Bitcoin is a strong hedge and a safe-haven against movements in both commodity indices. We further examine whether that ability is also present for non-energy commodities and our analysis show insignificant results when energy commodities are excluded from the general commodity index. We also account for the December 2013 Bitcoin price crash and our results reveal that Bitcoin hedge and safe-haven properties against commodities and energy commodities are only present in the pre-crash period, whereas in the post-crash period Bitcoin is no more than a diversifier. In addition to uncovering the time-varying role of Bitcoin, we highlight the dissimilarity in the dynamic correlations between the extreme downward and extreme upward movements.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Elie Bouri","Naji Jalkh","Péter Molnár","David Roubaud"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1299102","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-618a2721ed9cb376","title":"Corporate ESG Profiles and Banking Relationships","abstract":"We show that banking relationships promote corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies. Specifically, banks are more likely to [grant] to borrowers with ESG profiles similar to their own and positively influence the borrower’s subsequent ESG performance. Their influence is more pronounced when (1) banks have significantly better ESG ratings than borrowers and (2) borrowers are bank dependent. We exploit M&A among lenders as a source of quasi-exogenous variation in the lender’s ESG standard to alleviate endogeneity concerns. Overall, our study presents the first evidence on the interplay between responsible bank lending and borrowers’ ESG behavior.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Joel F. Houston","Hongyu Shan"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab125","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-61929af082f629fc","title":"Markets with Multidimensional Private Information","abstract":"This paper explores price formation when sellers are privately informed about their preferences and the quality of their asset. There are many equilibria, including a semi-separating one in which each seller's price depends on a one-dimensional index of her preferences and asset quality. This multiplicity does not rely on off-the-equilibrium path beliefs and so is not amenable to standard signaling game refinements. The semi-separating equilibrium may not be Pareto efficient, even if it is not Pareto dominated by any other equilibrium. Instead, efficient allocations may require transfers across uninformed buyers, inconsistent with any equilibrium.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Veronica Guerrieri","Robert Shimer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160129","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-619c6d4f546e33a3","title":"Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices","abstract":"We analyze the effects of policy transition risk on asset pricing and the green transition using a global two-sector, macro-finance model of climate and the economy. Policy transition risk results from probabilistic changes between three policy states: no, modest, and ambitious carbon pricing. We show that policy transition risk leads to carbon premiums (i.e. higher expected returns on brown than on green assets), especially if the economy is still quite carbon-intensive and close to the temperature cap, and thus accelerate the green transition. Increased transition risk leads to more precautionary saving and falls in the risk-free rate. We offer extensions to deal with physical risks (temperature-related risk of climate disasters and climate tipping), technology transition risk, and more realistic policy tipping with endogenous transition probabilities.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Christoph Hambel","Frederick van der Ploeg"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103780","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-619e816bd5c35a97","title":"Transparency and cooperation in repeated dilemma games: a meta study","abstract":"We use data from experiments on finitely repeated dilemma games with fixed matching to investigate the effect of different types of information on cooperation. The data come from 71 studies using the voluntary contributions paradigm, covering 122 data points, and from 18 studies on decision-making in oligopoly, covering another 50 data points. We find similar effects in the two sets of experimental games. We find that transparency about what everyone in a group earns reduces contributions to the public good, as well as the degree of collusion in oligopoly markets. In contrast, transparency about choices tends to lead to an increase in contributions and collusion, although the size of this effect varies somewhat between the two settings. Our results are potentially useful for policy making, because they provide guidance on the type of information to target in order to stimulate or limit cooperation.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Lenka Fiala","Sigrid Suetens"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9517-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-61a2f23cbdd5b2c5","title":"A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies","abstract":"This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about forty emerging market countries over 1986 to 2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. The transmission of global financial shocks to domestic credit and house price growth, as well as to banking sector leverage and domestic output, is magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible) exchange rate regimes.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Maurice Obstfeld","Jonathan D. Ostry","Mahvash Saeed Qureshi"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00740","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-61a3015738103eea","title":"News-driven business cycles in small open economies","abstract":"The focus of this paper is on news-driven business cycles in small open economies. We make two significant contributions. First, we develop a small open economy model where the presence of financial frictions permits the replication of business cycle co-movements in response to news shocks. Second, we use VAR analysis to identify news shocks using data on four advanced small open economies. We find that expected shocks about the future Total Factor Productivity generate business cycle co-movements in output, hours, consumption and investment. We also find that news shocks are associated with countercyclical current account dynamics. Our findings are robust across a number of alternative identification schemes.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Güneş Kamber","Konstantinos Theodoridis","Christoph Thoenissen"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-61a39a99f4bd87c3","title":"Achieving fiscal balance in japan","abstract":"Japan is aging and has the highest government debt‐to‐output ratio among advanced economies. In this article, we build a micro data‐based, large‐scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules. Using existing pension law, current fiscal policy, and medium variants of demographic projections, we produce future paths for government expenditures and tax revenues, with implications for government debt and the public pension fund. Additional pension reform, a higher consumption tax, and higher female labor force participation help achieve fiscal stability.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Selahattın İmrohoroğlu","Sagiri Kitao","Tomoaki Yamada"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12150","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-61baf787b5a4b125","title":"Expectations-Based Loss Aversion May Help Explain Seemingly Dominated Choices in Strategy-Proof Mechanisms","abstract":"Deferred acceptance (DA), a widely implemented algorithm, is meant to improve allocations: under classical preferences, it induces preference-concordant rankings. However, recent evidence shows that—in both real, large-stakes applications and experiments—participants frequently play seemingly dominated, significantly costly strategies that avoid small chances of good outcomes. We show theoretically why, with expectations-based loss aversion, this behavior may be partly intentional. Reanalyzing existing experimental data on random serial dictatorship (a restriction of DA), we show that such reference-dependent preferences, with a degree and distribution of loss aversion that explain common levels of risk aversion elsewhere, fit the data better than no-loss-aversion preferences.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Bnaya Dreyfuss","Ori Heffetz","Matthew Rabin"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200259","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-61e27f8419402a3d","title":"Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions","abstract":"This article analyses the existence and the effects of bubbles in an endogenous growth model with financial frictions and heterogeneous investments. Bubbles are likely to emerge when the degree of pledgeability is in the middle range, implying that improving the financial market might increase the potential for asset bubbles. Moreover, when the degree of pledgeability is relatively low, bubbles boost long-run growth; when it is relatively high, bubbles lower growth. Furthermore, we examine the effects of a bubble burst, and show that the effects depend on the degree of pledgeability, that is, the quality of the financial system. Finally, we conduct a full welfare analysis of asset bubbles.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Tomohiro Hirano","Noriyuki Yanagawa"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw059","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-61ead413f64ff844","title":"The role of heterogeneity of patients’ preferences in kidney transplantation","abstract":"We elicit time and risk preferences for kidney transplantation from the entire population of patients of the largest Italian transplant centre using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). We measure patients' willingness-to-wait (WTW) for receiving a kidney with one-year longer expected graft survival, or a low risk of complication. Using a mixed logit in WTW-space model, we find heterogeneity in patients' preferences. Our model allows WTW to vary with patients' age and duration of dialysis. The results suggest that WTW correlates with age and duration of dialysis, and that accounting for patients' preferences in the design of kidney allocation protocols could increase their welfare. The implication for transplant practice is that eliciting patients' preferences could help in the allocation of \"non-ideal\" kidneys.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Mesfin G. Genie","Antonio Nicolò","Giacomo Pasini"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102331","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-61f90625c0c817b9","title":"Government debt and fiscal multipliers in the era of population aging","abstract":"Over the past decade, the most salient changes in macroeconomic conditions in developed economies have included rising government debt and population aging, which are strongly correlated with each other. This paper investigates fiscal multipliers by disentangling the effects of population aging from those of government debt. Our analysis, which uses heterogeneous panel data from 24 OECD economies, shows that while fiscal policy is ineffective for economies with high-debt levels, it is effective for economies with low-debt levels. Furthermore, the estimation results reveal that fiscal policy is ineffective for aged economies, regardless of the level of government debt. However, for nonaged economies, while fiscal policy leads to negative effects on output in times of high debt, its positive effects are more pronounced in times of low debt. Our results suggest that, for the effective implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, policy-based stimulation of employment in the labor market is essential.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Dooyeon Cho","Dong‐Eun Rhee"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000421","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-61f9e446bff22d73","title":"Rational Inattention Dynamics: Inertia and Delay in Decision-Making","abstract":"We solve a general class of dynamic rational-inattention problems in which an agent repeatedly acquires costly information about an evolving state and selects actions. The solution resembles the choice rule in a dynamic logit model, but it is biased towards an optimal default rule that does not depend on the realized state. We apply the general solution to the study of (i) the sunk-cost fallacy; (ii) inertia in actions leading to lagged adjustments to shocks; and (iii) the tradeoff between accuracy and delay in decision-making.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Jakub Steiner","Colin Stewart","Filip Matějka"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13636","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6211587eda277d44","title":"Youth employment, academic performance and labour market outcomes: Production functions and policy effects","abstract":"We use instrumental variables for teenage employment opportunities to identify the causal effects of part-time work during compulsory education in England on educational performance at age 16 and labour market outcomes to age 25. We identify the total ‘policy effect’, partly driven by resulting changes in other inputs, and the direct effect or ‘production function parameter’, which holds these constant. The total effects of an additional hour of part-time work per week at age 15 include reducing educational performance in school-leaving qualifications by males by 2.5% and females by 6.7% of a standard deviation, and increasing duration of unemployment experience before age 25 by two months. Direct effects on long-run outcomes are generally beneficial for women and less so for men. What human capital or signalling benefits there are to teenage part-time work are substantially offset by the effects of reduced educational investments.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Angus Holford"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101806","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6222be775c536953","title":"Who wants to be an auctioneer?","abstract":"This paper endogenizes the decision whether to post a mechanism or to participate in another trader's mechanism in a competing mechanisms environment. With a population of heterogeneous buyers and sellers facing standard search frictions, each trader in our market has to decide whether to post a mechanism or to visit a mechanism posted by a trader on the other side of the market. We show that the equilibrium in this market is unique and is constrained efficient. Inefficient traders (low-value buyers and high-cost sellers) choose to visit with probability one, while more efficient traders randomize between posting and visiting. The resulting allocation differs substantially from the equilibrium allocation in the market where only one side can post mechanisms, especially when trader heterogeneity is significant. This suggests that decentralized marketplaces should allow participating buyers and sellers to self-select into making or receiving offers. We also provide conditions under which posting decisions are monotone, so that more efficient types post with higher probabilities than less efficient types.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Sergei Severinov","Gábor Virág"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105820","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-622314d663ae3dde","title":"Dynamic Assignment of Objects to Queuing Agents","abstract":"We analyze the dynamic assignment of objects to agents organized in a constant size waiting list. Applications include the assignment of social housing and organs for transplants. We analyze the optimal design of probabilistic queuing disciplines, punishment schemes, and information release. With private values, all agents prefer first-come first-served to the lottery, but waste is lower at the lottery. With common values, all agents prefer first-come first-served to any other mechanism, and waste is minimized at the lottery. Punishment schemes accelerate turnover in the queue and information release increases the value of agents at the top of the waiting list.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Francis Bloch","David Cantalá"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150183","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6234de6657c8b4f2","title":"Internal Labor Migration as a Shock Coping Strategy: Evidence from a Typhoon","abstract":"We analyze how internal labor migration facilitates shock coping in rural economies. Employing high-precision satellite data, we identify objective variations in the inundations generated by a catastrophic typhoon in Vietnam and match them with household panel data before and after the shock. We find that, following a massive drop in income, households cope mainly through labor migration to urban areas. Households with settled migrants ex ante receive more remittances. Nonmigrant households react by sending new members away who then remit similar amounts than established migrants. This mechanism is most effective with long-distance migration, while local networks fail to provide insurance.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["André Gröger","Yanos Zylberberg"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140362","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-623504904c151b8e","title":"Preliminary lessons from COVID-19 disruptions of small-scale fishery supply chains","abstract":"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation measures have disrupted global systems that support the health, food and nutrition security, and livelihoods of billions of people. These disruptions have likewise affected the small-scale fishery (SSF) sector, disrupting SSF supply chains and exposing weaknesses in the global seafood distribution system. To inform future development of adaptive capacity and resilience in the sector, it is important to understand how supply chain actors are responding in the face of a macroeconomic shock. Comparing across seven SSF case studies in four countries, we explore how actors are responding to COVID-19 disruptions, identify constraints to adaptive responses, and describe patterns of disruption and response across cases. In all cases examined, actors shifted focus to local and regional distribution channels and particularly drew on flexibility, organization, and learning to re-purpose pre-existing networks and use technology to their advantage. Key constraints to reaching domestic consumers included domestic restrictions on movement and labor, reduced spending power amongst domestic consumers, and lack of existing distribution channels. In addition, the lack of recognition of SSFs as essential food-producers and inequities in access to technology hampered efforts to continue local seafood supply. We suggest that the initial impacts from COVID-19 highlight the risks in of over-reliance on global trade networks. The SSFs that were able to change strategies most successfully had local organizations and connections in place that they leveraged in innovative ways. As such, supporting local and domestic networks and flexible organizations within the supply chain may help build resilience in the face of future macroeconomic shocks. Importantly, bolstering financial wellbeing and security within the domestic market both before and during such large-scale disruptions is crucial for supporting ongoing supply chain operations and continued food provision during macroeconomic crises.","wordCount":289,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Hannah R. Bassett","Jacqueline Lau","Christopher Giordano","Sharon Suri","Sahir Advani","Sonia Sharan"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105473","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6241588a911dd4ce","title":"Does supply chain finance improve firms’ ESG performance?","abstract":"The positive SCF-ESG relationship remains robust after addressing endogeneity. This study investigates the impact of supply chain finance (SCF) participation on firms’ ESG performance by studying Chinese companies between 2011 and 2021. We find a significant positive association between SCF participation and ESG performance. Additional analysis indicates that SCF improves ESG by alleviating financial constraints and enhancing operational scrutiny. The results are consistent across various ESG and SCF measures and remain robust after endogeneity concerns are addressed.","wordCount":77,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Shaohua Wang","Hong Hu","Hong Fan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112098","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-62471a8b56cf3c9b","title":"Is there a national housing market bubble brewing in the United States?","abstract":"We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in Federal Housing Finance Agency house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We find that the contribution of the national factor in explaining fluctuations in house prices is critical. We then use a Bayesian change-point vector autoregressive model that allows for different regimes throughout the sample period, to study the impact of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, (conventional) monetary policy, and term-spread shocks, identified based on sign restrictions on the national component of house price movements. While monetary policy and other shocks are found to be quite dominant early on, we find evidence that the national factor has been detached from the identified macroeconomic shocks since 2014, thus suggesting that a “national bubble” might be brewing again in the US housing market.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Rangan Gupta","Jun Ma","Konstantinos Theodoridis","Mark E. Wohar"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000645","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-62477708ed5d158c","title":"Inequality and risk preference","abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between income inequality and risk taking. Increased income inequality is likely to enlarge the scope for upward comparisons and, in the presence of reference-dependent preferences, to increase willingness to take risks. Using a globally representative data set on risk preference in 76 countries, we empirically document that the distribution of income in a country has a positive and significant link with the preference for risk. This relationship is remarkably precise and holds across countries and individuals, as well as alternate measures of inequality. We find evidence of a steeper gradient between willingness to take risks and inequality for cognitively more able individuals who likely have a better assessment of inequality and for those who are dissatisfied with their income. We present results in favour of our mechanism, which suggests that falling behind one’s reference group increases the appetite for risk taking.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Harry Pickard","Thomas Dohmen","Bert Van Landeghem"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09440-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-624c657682312a00","title":"Invalid but infringed? An analysis of the bifurcated patent litigation system","abstract":"In bifurcated patent litigation systems, claims of infringement and validity of a patent are decided independently of each other in separate court proceedings at different courts. In non-bifurcated systems, infringement and validity are decided jointly in the same proceedings at a single court. We build a model that shows the key trade-off between bifurcated and non-bifurcated systems and how it affects the incentives of plaintiffs and defendants in patent infringement cases. Using detailed data on patent litigation cases in Germany (bifurcated) and the U.K. (non-bifurcated), we show that bifurcation creates situations in which a patent is held infringed that is subsequently invalidated. We also show that having to challenge a patent's validity in separate court proceedings under bifurcation implies that alleged infringers are less likely to do so. We find this to apply in particular to more resource-constrained alleged infringers. Finally, we find parties to be more likely to settle in a bifurcated system.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Katrin Cremers","Fabian Gaessler","Dietmar Harhoff","Christian Helmers","Yassine Lefouili"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.08.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-62574d31d022faae","title":"Why Do Retail Investors Pick Green Investments? A Lab-in-the-Field Experiment with Crowdfunders","abstract":"Do investors invest in green projects because they expect higher returns, to help the environment, or to help other people? To separate these motivations, we run a decision experiment in which crowdfunders choose between a higher return or a positive environmental impact, and between a higher return or a positive social impact. A majority of investors choose environmental and social impact over higher returns, conditional on large enough impact. Combining the experimental data with historical investments, we find that investors allocate a larger share of funds to green projects if they value environmental impact more and if they expect a higher return, but not if they value social impact more, all else equal. These findings suggest that investors have a preference for positive environmental impact, and satisfy it by investing in green projects. Finally, we introduce new survey measures of impact for future use, which are experimentally validated and predict field behavior.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Christoph Siemroth","Lars Hornuf"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.02.023","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-625819f46ae0ecdf","title":"Structural Transformation of Occupation Employment","abstract":"We use census data to show that structural transformation reflects a fundamental reallocation of labour from goods to services, instead of a relabelling that occurs when goods‐producing firms outsource their in‐house service production. The novelty of our approach is that it categorizes labour by occupations, which are invariant to outsourcing. We find that the reallocation of labour from goods‐producing to service‐producing occupations is a robust feature in censuses from around the world and different time periods. To understand the underlying forces, we propose a tractable model in which uneven occupation ‐specific technological change generates structural transformation of occupation employment.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Georg Duernecker","Berthold Herrendorf"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12435","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-626cbf19cd793f0e","title":"Weathering Cash Flow Shocks","abstract":"Unexpectedly severe winter weather, which is arguably exogenous to firm and bank fundamentals, represents a significant cash flow shock for bank‐borrowing firms. Firms respond to these shocks by drawing on and increasing the size of their credit lines. Banks charge borrowers for this liquidity via increased interest rates and less borrower‐friendly loan provisions. Credit line adjustments occur within one calendar quarter of the shock and persist for at least nine months. Overall, we provide evidence that bank credit lines are an important tool for managing the nonfundamental component of cash flow volatility, especially for solvent, small bank borrowers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["James Robert Brown","Matthew Gustafson","Ivan Ivanov"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-627e39aa204ecf8e","title":"Do corporate lawyers matter? Evidence from patents","abstract":"Patent attorneys are responsible for obtaining patents that bring the highest expected profits for their corporate clients. We investigate the role of patent attorney capability in determining the value of corporate patents. We find that a one standard deviation increase in legal expertise leads to a 0.04% rise in patents' market valuation and a 3% increase in citations. This finding holds irrespective of the number of patents obtained by patent attorneys to date (process experience). To establish causality, we exploit a novel shock: the opening of new regional patent offices in the US; and changes in a firm's patent attorney. Overall, we find that capable patent attorneys matter as they increase both the economic and technological value of corporate patents.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Dimitris Andriosopoulos","Paweł Czarnowski","Andrew Marshall"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102473","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-627e70e84185b11d","title":"Risk-sharing and entrepreneurship","abstract":"This study examines the impact of risk-sharing on entrepreneurship-driven innovation in an occupational choice model, where entrepreneurs exert effort to innovate. Risk-sharing may increase the number of individuals who become entrepreneurs by limiting the downside risk. The effort of entrepreneurs may, however, be hampered by high risk-sharing if this limits the returns faced by successful entrepreneurs relative to unsuccessful entrepreneurs. We construct a simple theoretical model where risk-sharing may be either private or provided through the welfare state by means of taxation. We show that, in addition to the occupational and effort choice dimensions, the level of public risk-sharing also matters for the characteristics of entrepreneurs.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Matilda Kilström","Paula Roth"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.12.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-629141da183b5683","title":"Do internal capital markets in business groups mitigate firms' financial constraints?","abstract":"We develop a new rationale for capital allocation in business groups’ internal capital markets. We show that productivity and pledgeable income jointly drive capital allocation within an internal capital market. In financially constrained business groups, an efficient internal capital market can allocate marginal funds to firms that have high pledgeability of income because of a multiplier effect: a dollar of internal funds generates a bigger increase in investment. This result has important implications for the business group affiliation strategy. Whether or not a financially constrained but highly productive firm will benefit from group affiliation depends on its borrowing capacity vis-à-vis other affiliates.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Luiz Ricardo Kabbach de Castro","Guilherme Kirch","Rafael Matta"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106573","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-62ac1c360847df1d","title":"The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections","abstract":"We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data, we show that, immediately after elections with a change of government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote shares, and automobile purchases, we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Christian Gillitzer","Nalini Prasad"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160244","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-62b5f6f3033e64e3","title":"Salience and Skewness Preferences","abstract":"Whether people seek or avoid risks on gambling, insurance, asset, or labor markets crucially depends on the skewness of the underlying probability distribution. In fact, people typically seek positively skewed risks and avoid negatively skewed risks. We show that salience theory of choice under risk can explain this preference for positive skewness, because unlikely, but outstanding payoffs attract attention. In contrast to alternative models, however, salience theory predicts that choices under risk not only depend on the absolute skewness of the available options, but also on how skewed these options appear to be relative to each other. We exploit this fact to derive novel, experimentally testable predictions that are unique to the salience model and that we find support for in two laboratory experiments. We thereby argue that skewness preferences—typically attributed to cumulative prospect theory—are more naturally accommodated by salience theory.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Markus Dertwinkel‐Kalt","Mats Köster"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz035","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-62be273cd0173593","title":"More effort with less pay: On information avoidance, optimistic beliefs, and performance","abstract":"Neoclassical theory presumes that agents value instrumental information. In contrast, recent behavioral studies motivate and model information avoidance. We study preferences for and against instrumental information in a real-effort task varying information structures on performance pay. Our study offers three main results. First, we confirm that both, preferences for and against instrumental information, exist. Second, information avoiders outperform information receivers. This result holds independently of effects of self-selection. Third, our findings about information avoiders can be aligned with behavioral theories of optimistic belief design.","wordCount":84,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Steffen Huck","Nora Szech","Lukas Wenner"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104965","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-62c043ad9031277a","title":"The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: ExperimentalEvidence from Kenya","abstract":"We use a randomized controlled trial to study the response of poor households in rural Kenya to unconditional cash transfers from the NGO GiveDirectly. The transfers differ from other programs in that they are explicitly unconditional, large, and concentrated in time. We randomized at both the village and household levels; furthermore, within the treatment group, we randomized recipient gender (wife versus husband), transfer timing (lump-sum transfer versus monthly installments), and transfer magnitude (US$404 PPP versus US$1,525 PPP). We find a strong consumption response to transfers, with an increase in household monthly consumption from $158 PPP to $193 PPP nine months after the transfer began. Transfer recipients experience large increases in psychological well-being. We find no overall effect on levels of the stress hormone cortisol, although there are differences across some subgroups. Monthly transfers are more likely than lump-sum transfers to improve food security, whereas lump-sum transfers are more likely to be spent on durables, suggesting that households face savings and credit constraints. Together, these results suggest that unconditional cash transfers have significant impacts on economic outcomes and psychological well-being.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Johannes Haushofer","Jeremy Shapiro"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-62c60c89fc3d644e","title":"Impact of ESG score on financial performance of Indian firms: static and dynamic panel regression analyses","abstract":"The study attempts to empirically investigate the impact of ESG score on the financial variables that may affect the performance of firms in the Indian context; SEBI’s recent mandate on ESG reporting by the listed entities being the point of departure for the present discourse. A representative sample of 48 Indian firms having ESG scores under BSE-100 index is used in the analysis. The study period comprises the years 2011–2019. Static and dynamic panel regression analyses are conducted. The financial performance variables incorporated in this paper include ROA, ROE, firm size, market capitalization, PBDIT, Tobin’s Q and share price. It is demonstrated that ESG score influences these variables, however with time lags. The distinctive contribution of the current endeavour lies in establishing a long-term positive association between ESG disclosure and annual average share price for the listed firms in a developing economy like India. The results are implicative of the fact that ESG score is an emerging indicator for conceiving future financial performance and risk mitigation strategies, and therefore, of considerable importance from policy perspective.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Rupamanjari Sinha Ray","Sandeep Goel"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2101611","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-62c9c7764579d96e","title":"Exposure to open defecation can account for the Indian enigma of child height","abstract":"Physical height is an important measure of human capital. However, differences in average height across developing countries are poorly explained by economic differences. Children in India are shorter than poorer children in Africa, a widely studied puzzle called \"the Asian enigma.\" This paper proposes and quantitatively investigates the hypothesis that differences in sanitation - and especially in the population density of open defecation - can statistically account for an important component of the Asian enigma, India's gap relative to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper's main result computes a demographic projection of the increase in the average height of Indian children, if they were counterfactually exposed to sub-Saharan African sanitation, using a non-parametric reweighting method. India's projected increase in mean height is at least as large as the gap. The analysis also critically reviews evidence from recent estimates in the literature. Two possible mechanisms are effects on children and on their mothers.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Dean Spears"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.08.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-62d9fa88626fd760","title":"State-dependent local projections","abstract":"Do state-dependent local projections asymptotically recover the population responses of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks? The answer to this question depends on how the state of the economy is determined and on the magnitude of the shocks. When the state is exogenous, the local projection estimator recovers the population response regardless of the shock size. When the state depends on macroeconomic shocks, as is common in empirical work, local projections only recover the conditional response to an infinitesimal shock, but not the responses to larger shocks of interest in many applications. Simulations suggest that impulse responses may be off by as much as 82 percent and fiscal multipliers by as much as 40 percent.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Śılvia Gonçalves","Ana María Herrera","Lutz Kilian","Elena Pesavento"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105702","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-62e6a32de8dce470","title":"Fiscal federalism, decentralization, and economic growth: A meta‐analysis","abstract":"The theoretical literature on fiscal federalism has identified several channels through which government decentralization could affect economic growth. Much of the literature focuses on the efficiency aspects of a decentralized provision of public services, but decentralization may also increase growth by raising the ability of the political system to innovate and carry out reforms. In contrast, some authors argue that decentralization increases corruption and government inefficiency, and thus may diminish growth. Given this theoretical ambiguity, several studies have attempted to identify the effect of decentralization on economic growth empirically over the last two decades. We review and conduct a meta‐analysis of this empirical literature. Based on our analysis, we point out open questions and discuss possible ways to answer them.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Thushyanthan Baskaran","Lars P. Feld","Jan Schnellenbach"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12331","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-62f5b2965017d224","title":"Welfare Resilience at the Onset of the COVID‐19 Pandemic in a Selection of European Countries: Impact on Public Finance and Household Incomes","abstract":"This paper assesses the impact on household incomes of the COVID-19 pandemic and governments' policy responses in April 2020 in four large and severely hit EU countries: Belgium, Italy, Spain and the UK. We provide comparative evidence on the level of relative and absolute welfare resilience at the onset of the pandemic, by creating counterfactual scenarios using the European tax-benefit model EUROMOD combined with COVID-19-related household surveys and timely labor market data. We find that income poverty increased in all countries due to the pandemic while inequality remained broadly the same. Differences in the impact of policies across countries arose from four main sources: the asymmetric dimension of the shock by country, the different protection offered by each tax-benefit system, the diverse design of discretionary measures and differences in the household level circumstances and living arrangements of individuals at risk of income loss in each country.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Olga Cantó","Francesco Figari","Carlo V. Fiorio","Sarah Kuypers","Sarah Marchal","Marina Romaguera de la Cruz","Iva Tasseva","Gerlinde Verbist"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12530","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63338e4d408a81eb","title":"Public procurement as an innovation policy: Where do we stand?","abstract":"Scholars and policymakers have long recognized the potential of public procurement as an industrial policy tool to incentivize innovation. However, it remains unclear to what extent this potential has been realized and what measures should be implemented to maximize performance. This paper surveys the economic literature on public procurement of innovation (PPI) to take stock of this debate. We discuss the existing research on four broad questions: i) Does PPI spur innovation? ii) How should PPI be designed to best spur innovation? iii) What barriers hinder the implementation of PPI? iv) What is the role of PPI in the innovation policy mix? We conclude that PPI can be an effective innovation policy, but that further investigation is needed for a more solid assessment. We highlight the areas where additional research is most needed and discuss policy implications for current global challenges.","wordCount":141,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Olga Chiappinelli","Leonardo M. Giuffrida","Giancarlo Spagnolo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103157","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6333a8a496841ca1","title":"Relative performance feedback to teams","abstract":"Work teams often receive feedback on how well their team is performing relative to their benchmarks. In this paper, we investigate experimentally how teams respond to relative performance feedback (RPF). We find that when subjects work under team incentives, then RPF on team performance increases the teams’ average performance by almost 10%. The treatment effect is driven by higher top performance, as this is almost 20% higher when the teams receive RPF compared to when the teams only receive absolute performance feedback (APF). The experiment suggests that top performers are particularly motivated by the combination of team incentives and team RPF. We also find notable gender differences. Females respond negatively to individual RPF, but even more positively than males to team RPF.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["William Gilje Gjedrem","Ola Kvaløy"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101865","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6333cfa73af7f44c","title":"Serial Entrepreneurship: Learning by Doing?","abstract":"Among typical entrepreneurs, is serial entrepreneurship common? Is the serial entrepreneur more likely to succeed? If so, why? These questions are addressed using data on all establishments started between 1990 and 2011 to sell retail goods and services in Texas. An entrepreneur is the owner of a new business. A serial entrepreneur is one who opens repeat businesses. We find that 25.6% of businesses are operated by serial entrepreneurs. These are the more successful businesses: prior business experience increases the longevity of the next business opened. Results with owner fixed effects suggest that past experience imparts valuable business skills.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Francine Lafontaine","Kathryn Shaw"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/683820","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63349dc65236ba9d","title":"The effects of social information and luck on risk behavior of small-scale fishers at Lake Victoria","abstract":"We use a lab-in-the-field experiment to examine how personal experience of good or bad luck and information about the behavior of others influence the risk taking behavior of small-scale fishers in Tanzania. These fishers make many risky decisions in their daily lives, and a better understanding of the factors influencing risky decisions is important from both a policy and scientific perspective. Our results show a slight tendency for fishers to take more risk in a lottery if they have been unlucky in another game shortly before. Risk taking is enhanced by social information when fishers learn that others have taken more risk. This is true although risks are independent and the fishers do not know whether the risk taking of others has ultimately paid off.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Astrid Dannenberg","Florian Diekert","Philipp Händel"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102493","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6345e424d558dbb4","title":"Better Night Lights Data, For Longer","abstract":"Night lights data are increasingly used in applied economics, almost always from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). These data are old, with production ending in 2013, and are flawed by blurring, lack of calibration and top‐coding. These inaccuracies in DMSP data cause mean‐reverting errors. This paper shows newer and better VIIRS night lights data have 80% higher predictive power for real GDP in a cross‐section of 269 European NUTS2 regions. Spatial inequality is greatly understated with DMSP data, especially for the most densely populated regions. A Pareto correction for top‐coding of DMSP data has a modest effect.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["John Gibson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12417","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-634bb88c5bf3f598","title":"Timing is money: The factor timing ability of hedge fund managers","abstract":"This paper studies the level, determinants, and implications of the factor timing ability of hedge fund managers. We find that approximately 34% of hedge funds display factor timing ability on at least one factor over the full sample, concentrated especially at the market, size, and bond factors. Better factor timing skills are on average related to funds that are more experienced and more flexible, but the cross-factor heterogeneity is considerable. Factor timing is associated with outperformance; the top factor timing funds outperform the bottom factor timing funds with a significant 4.32% per annum. Timing skills, though, do not directly lead to higher net flow.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Albert Jakob Osinga","M.B.J. Schauten","Remco C. J. Zwinkels"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.04.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63538a13c01ef3d1","title":"Learning from man or machine: Spatial fixed effects in urban econometrics","abstract":"Econometric models with spatial fixed effects (FE) require some kind of spatial aggregation. This aggregation may be based on postcode, school district, county or some other spatial subdivision. Common sense would suggest that the less aggregated, the better inasmuch as aggregation over larger areas tends to gloss over systematic spatial variation. On the other hand, low spatial aggregation results in thin data sets and potentially noisy spatial fixed effects. We show, however, how this trade-off can be substantially lessened if we allow for more flexible aggregations. The key insight is that if we aggregate over areas with similar location premiums, we obtain robust location premiums without glossing over too much of the spatial variation. We use machine learning in the form of a genetic algorithm to identify areas with similar location premiums. The best aggregations found by the genetic algorithm outperform a conventional FE by postcode, even with an order of magnitude fewer spatial controls. This opens the door for spatially sparse FEs, if economy in the number of variables is important. The major takeaway, however, is that the genetic algorithm can find spatial aggregations that are both refined and robust, and thus significantly, lessen the trade-off between robust and refined location premium estimates.","wordCount":204,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Åvald Åslaugson Sommervoll","Dag Einar Sommervoll"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.04.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6353ab2e9be97515","title":"Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold","abstract":"We propose an instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a proxy structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). The instrument equals the variations in the price of gold around events associated with unexpected changes in uncertainty. These variations correlate with uncertainty shocks because gold is perceived as a safe haven asset. To control for news‐related effects associated with the events we identify uncertainty and news shocks jointly, developing a set‐identified proxy SVAR. We find that the popular recursive approach underestimates the effects of uncertainty shocks and delivers responses for economic activity and monetary policy that have more in common with news shocks than with uncertainty shocks.","wordCount":104,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Michele Piffer","Maximilian Podstawski"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12545","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-635605d847445cfe","title":"Early childhood education and care: effects after half a century and their mechanisms","abstract":"The effects of early childhood education and care (ECEC) have been widely researched, but most studies focus on targeted or relatively short-term programmes. This paper investigates the long-term effects of a universal ECEC programme and underlying mechanisms. By exploiting differences in expansion rates of childcare institutions across Japan from the 1960s to the 1980s, I find a positive effect of ECEC on income at up to age 50. The overall effect is driven by a significant impact among women, who were disadvantaged at that time, while there are no adverse effects on others. Mediation analysis shows that an increase in wages leads to an increase in income, which is triggered by improved educational attainment and not an increase in labour supply. The results imply that a universal childcare system has the potential to reduce income inequality.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Hikaru Kawarazaki"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00899-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-635668167a59c3c7","title":"The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"This study is the first to estimate the impact of state medical marijuana laws (MMLs) on labor market outcomes. First, using data from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health, we document that MMLs are associated with an increase in marijuana consumption among younger and older adult males, consistent with increases in use for both recreational and medicinal purposes. Then, using data from the Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Groups, we find no evidence that MMLs affect employment, hours, or wages among working-age adults, including among demographic groups whose marijuana consumption is most impacted by MMLs. Medical marijuana laws that provide access to open marijuana dispensaries only moderately depress wages among young men. We conclude that the labor market effects of MMLs are small.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Joseph J. Sabia","Thành Tâm Nguyên"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701193","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-636f604671d2ede9","title":"The impact of mass shootings on gun policy","abstract":"There have been dozens of high-profile mass shootings in recent decades. This paper presents three main findings about the impact of mass shootings on gun policy. First, mass shootings evoke large policy responses. A single mass shooting leads to a 15% increase in the number of firearm bills introduced within a state in the year after a mass shooting. This effect increases with the extent of media coverage. Second, mass shootings account for a small portion of all gun deaths but have an outsized influence relative to other homicides. Third, when looking at bills that were actually enacted into law, the impact of mass shootings depends on the party in power. The annual number of laws that loosen gun restrictions doubles in the year following a mass shooting in states with Republican-controlled legislatures. We find no significant effect of mass shootings on laws enacted when there is a Democrat-controlled legislature, nor do we find a significant effect of mass shootings on the enactment of laws that tighten gun restrictions.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Michael Luca","Deepak Malhotra","Christopher Poliquin"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-63851064400f7eb5","title":"Corporate Scandals and Household Stock Market Participation","abstract":"We show that, after the revelation of corporate fraud in a state, household stock market participation in that state decreases. Households decrease holdings in fraudulent as well as nonfraudulent firms, even if they do not hold stocks in fraudulent firms. Within a state, households with more lifetime experience of corporate fraud hold less equity. Following the exogenous increase in fraud revelation due to Arthur Andersen's demise, states with more Arthur Andersen clients experience a larger decrease in stock market participation. We provide evidence that the documented effect is likely to reflect a loss of trust in the stock market.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Mariassunta Giannetti","Tracy Yue Wang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12399","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-638575e10727c3f9","title":"Tackling Youth Unemployment: Evidence From a Labor Market Experiment in Uganda","abstract":"We design a labor market experiment to compare demand‐ and supply‐side policies to tackle youth unemployment, a key issue in low‐income countries. The experiment tracks 1700 workers and 1500 firms over four years to compare the effect of offering workers either vocational training (VT) or firm‐provided training (FT) for six months in a common setting where youth unemployment is above 60%. Relative to control workers, we find that, averaged over three post‐intervention years, FT and VT workers: (i) enjoy large and similar upticks in sector‐specific skills, (ii) significantly improve their employment rates, and (iii) experience marked improvements in an index of labor market outcomes. These averages, however, mask differences in dynamics: FT gains materialize quickly but fade over time, while VT gains emerge slowly but are long‐lasting, leading VT worker employment and earning profiles to rise above those of FT workers. Estimating a job ladder model of worker search reveals the key reason for this: VT workers receive significantly higher rates of job offers when unemployed, thus hastening their movement back into work. This likely stems from the fact that the skills of VT workers are certified and therefore can be demonstrated to potential employers. Tackling youth unemployment by skilling youth using vocational training pre‐labor market entry therefore appears to be more effective than incentivizing firms through wage subsidies to hire and train young labor market entrants.","wordCount":227,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Livia Alfonsi","Oriana Bandiera","Vittorio Bassi","Robin Burgess","Imran Rasul","Munshi Sulaiman","Anna Vitali"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15959","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63995125a8bcedfc","title":"ESG and systemic risk","abstract":"How do changes in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) scores influence banks’ systemic risk contribution? Using a dynamic panel model, we document a beneficial impact of the ESG Combined Score and Governance pillar on banks’ contribution to system-wide distress analysing a panel of 367 publicly listed banks from 47 countries over the period 2007–2020. Stakeholder theory and theory relating social performance to expected returns in which enhanced investments in corporate social responsibility mitigate bank-specific risks explain our findings. However, only better corporate governance represents a tool in reducing bank interconnectedness and maintaining financial stability. The results are robust to alternative measures of systemic risk, both contribution and exposure, as well as when estimating a static model. Our findings stress the importance of integrating banks’ ESG disclosure into regulatory authorities’ supervisory mechanisms as qualitative information.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["George Marian Aevoae","Alin Marius Andrieş","Steven Ongena","Nicu Sprincean"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2108752","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-639cd552555764c9","title":"Long-Term Impacts of Childhood Medicaid Expansions on Outcomes in Adulthood","abstract":"We use administrative data from the IRS to examine long-term impacts of childhood Medicaid eligibility expansions on outcomes in adulthood at each age from 19-28. Greater Medicaid eligibility increases college enrollment and decreases fertility, especially through age 21. Starting at age 23, females have higher contemporaneous wage income, although male increases are imprecise. Together, both genders have lower mortality. These adults collect less from the earned income tax credit and pay more in taxes. Cumulatively from ages 19-28, at a 3% discount rate, the federal government recoups 58 cents of each dollar of its \"investment\" in childhood Medicaid.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["David W. Brown","Amanda Kowalski","Ithai Z. Lurie"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz039","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63a9699da110be95","title":"Long-lasting effects of indoctrination in school: Evidence from the People’s Republic of Poland","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of communist indoctrination in school on labour force participation and human capital investments. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of a reform in Poland that revoked political indoctrination in school in the mid-1950s, while leaving the rest of the curriculum unchanged. To overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit cut-off birth dates for school enrollment that lead to variation in the level of exposure to the reform. We find that less indoctrination in school improved the probability of finishing secondary and tertiary education, and increased labour force participation nearly 50 years later.","wordCount":94,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Joan Costa‐Font","Jorge García Hombrados","Anna Nicińska"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104641","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-63a9bec6ae1ff56a","title":"Early gender gaps among university graduates","abstract":"We use data from six cohorts of university graduates in Germany to assess the extent of gender gaps in college and labor market performance twelve to eighteen months after graduation. Men and women enter college in roughly equal numbers, but more women than men complete their degrees. Women enter college with slightly better high school grades, but women leave university with slightly lower marks. Immediately following university completion, male and female full-timers work a very similar number of hours per week, but men earn more than women across the pay distribution, with an unadjusted gender gap in full-time monthly earnings of about 20 log points on average. Including a large set of controls reduces the gap to 5–10 log points. The single most important proximate factor that explains the gap is field of study at university.","wordCount":136,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Marco Francesconi","Matthias Parey"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.02.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63bca268ef8a0dc4","title":"The Economics of Advice","abstract":"A consumer wants to buy one of three different products. An expert observes which of the three products is the best match for the consumer. From his knowledge of costs and the observation of prices, the consumer can infer the expert’s incentives. Under linear prices a monopolistic expert may truthfully reveal, may partially reveal, or may not reveal at all her information. The outcome is inefficient; moreover, the consumer gets some of the surplus. With a two-part tariff the expert truthfully reveals her information. The outcome is efficient, and the expert appropriates the entire surplus. If experts are competitive, they also truthfully reveal; here all of the surplus goes to consumers.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Winand Emons","Severin Lenhard"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10012-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63c99fc34979d1ed","title":"The Effect of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on Migration","abstract":"The expansion of Medicaid to low-income nondisabled adults is a key component of the Affordable Care Act's strategy to increase health insurance coverage, but many states have chosen not to take up the expansion. As a result, for many low-income adults, there has been stark variation across states in access to Medicaid since the expansions took effect in 2014. This study investigates whether individuals migrate in order to gain access to these benefits. Using an empirical model in the spirit of a difference-in-differences, this study finds that migration from non-expansion states to expansion states did not increase in 2014 relative to migration in the reverse direction. The estimates are sufficiently precise to rule out a migration effect that would meaningfully affect the number of enrollees in expansion states, which suggests that Medicaid expansion decisions do not impose a meaningful fiscal externality on other states.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Lucas Goodman"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21952","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63cb7e1d53b0f711","title":"The Effects of Business Accelerators on Venture Performance: Evidence from Start-Up Chile","abstract":"Do business accelerators affect new venture performance? We investigate this question in the context of Start-Up Chile, an ecosystem accelerator. We focus on two treatment conditions typically found in business accelerators: basic services of funding and coworking space, and additional entrepreneurship schooling. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that schooling bundled with basic services can significantly increase new venture performance. In contrast, we find no evidence that basic services affect performance on their own. Our results are most relevant for ecosystem accelerators that attract young and early-stage businesses and suggest that entrepreneurial capital matters in new ventures.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Juanita González-Uribe","Michael Leatherbee"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx103","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63d40a6f51b47c20","title":"The equality multiplier: How wage compression and welfare empowerment interact","abstract":"We explore how more wage equality fuels the generosity of the welfare state via political competition in elections, and how a more generous welfare state fuels wage equality via empowerment of weak groups in the labor market. Together the two mechanisms may generate a cumulative process that explains how equality multiplies, and why countries with more equal distributions of market outcomes also have stronger welfare states. The complementarity between wage setting and welfare spending can explain why almost equally rich countries differ so much in economic and social equality among their citizens.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Erling Barth","Karl Ove Moene"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","E","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12163","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63d563cb93a90ef6","title":"Kin Networks and Institutional Development","abstract":"This study provides evidence that strong kin networks are detrimental for democratic participatory institutions and that the medieval Catholic Church's marriage regulations dissolved Europe's clan-based kin networks, which contributed to the emergence of participatory institutions. I show that weak ancestral kin networks are positively associated with ethnicities’ democratic traditions in the past and countries’ democracy scores today. At the same time, medieval Church exposure predicts weak kin networks across countries, European regions and ethnicities. In a historical difference-in-difference analysis, I provide evidence that exposure to the Church contributed to the formation of medieval communes—self-governed cities with participatory institutions. Moreover, within Christian Europe, stricter regional and temporal marriage prohibitions are associated with commune formation. Lastly, I shed light on one mechanism, civicness, and show that weak kin networks are associated with more political participation.","wordCount":133,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Jonathan Schulz"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63d64b5b2bc1e53b","title":"Decentralization and trust in government: Quasi-experimental evidence from Ukraine","abstract":"Can decentralization of political powers increase trust in government? We present quasi-experimental evidence from Ukraine where political trust has been among the lowest levels worldwide. The national government devolved powers and resources to newly formed local governments (hromadas) between 2015 and 2020; this includes a substantial share of taxes on local incomes. We exploit local differences in the timing of the decentralization reform. Difference-in-differences estimations show that citizens in decentralized communities report more trust in local authorities and participate more often in local elections. The most likely mechanism is the democratic process of coming together to build new local communities. Local trust however does not spill over to trust in national institutions. The results may explain the strong role of hromadas in Ukraine’s resilience against the detrimental effects of the Russian invasion.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Helge Arends","Tymofii Brik","Benedikt Herrmann","Felix Roesel"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.08.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63d7209839712d0c","title":"Cash inflows and bubbles in asset markets with constant fundamental values","abstract":"Previous experimental research on asset markets has reported that the level of cash available to traders does not affect asset prices when fundamentals follow a time trajectory that is constant over time. This contrasts with other research indicating that greater cash levels increase prices when fundamental values are decreasing over time. We report a new experiment in which we show that greater initial cash levels are indeed associated with higher prices when fundamental values are constant over time. Thus, high cash levels will lead to bubbles, if the cash is introduced before the market opens. Our results reconcile the two previous sets of findings.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Charles Noussair","Steven Tucker"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12320","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63ded145b7ccce72","title":"Limitations of Contract Farming as a Pro-poor Strategy: The Case of Maize Outgrower Schemes in Upper West Ghana","abstract":"Contract farming (CF) arrangements have the potential to address market failures and improve technology adoption, productivity, and welfare. In Ghana, government and donors use CF as a strategy for increasing adoption of new agricultural technologies and developing value chains. Yet to date, there has not been a rigorous assessment of these CF schemes. The focus in this paper is on different maize-based CF schemes in the poorest and most remote region in Ghana. It assesses the profitability and potential impact of these CF schemes, utilizing a unique plot-level dataset that covers two periods of data and two maize plots (scheme and non-scheme) per household, and employing matching techniques and an instrumental variable approach to address selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity across farmers. These are complemented by a community-level survey, in-depth interviews with scheme operators, and a series of key informant interviews. Results show that these schemes led to improved technology adoption and yield increases. In addition, a subset of maize farmers with high yield improvements due to CF participation have high profits. Maize CF schemes also enabled market coordination and consistent supply of quality maize to downstream industries. However, on average, the impact of the CF schemes on profitability is negative, even when input diversion is accounted for. Yield increases are not high enough to compensate for higher input requirements and the cost of capital under the schemes. Despite higher yields, the costs to produce one metric tonne of maize under CF schemes are higher than on maize farms without CF schemes, twice that of several countries in Africa, and more than seven times higher than that of major maize-exporting countries (the United States, Brazil, and Argentina). Sustainability of these CF schemes will largely depend on developing and promoting much-improved varieties and technologies that boost yields in order to compensate for the high input and credit costs.","wordCount":307,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Catherine Ragasa","Isabel Lambrecht","Doreen S. Kufoalor"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.09.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63def6ff79780063","title":"Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications","abstract":"In this paper, we develop algorithms to independently draw from a family of conjugate posterior distributions over the structural parameterization when sign and zero restrictions are used to identify structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). We call this family of conjugate posteriors normal‐generalized‐normal. Our algorithms draw from a conjugate uniform‐normal‐inverse‐Wishart posterior over the orthogonal reduced‐form parameterization and transform the draws into the structural parameterization; this transformation induces a normal‐generalized‐normal posterior over the structural parameterization. The uniform‐normal‐inverse‐Wishart posterior over the orthogonal reduced‐form parameterization has been prominent after the work of Uhlig (2005). We use Beaudry, Nam, and Wang's (2011) work on the relevance of optimism shocks to show the dangers of using alternative approaches to implementing sign and zero restrictions to identify SVARs like the penalty function approach. In particular, we analytically show that the penalty function approach adds restrictions to the ones described in the identification scheme.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Jonas E. Arias","Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramı́rez","Daniel F. Waggoner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14468","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63f458ae1bcf76eb","title":"Citywide parking policy and traffic: Evidence from Amsterdam","abstract":"We examine the effect of citywide parking policy on parking and traffic demand. Using a large increase in on-street parking prices for the city of Amsterdam, we show that the policy caused a substantial drop in on-street parking demand, which is not offset by an increase in off-street demand. The overall reduction in parking demand implies a 2% – 3% reduction in traffic, which is confirmed with traffic flow data. The decline in traffic is larger during the evening peak, which indicates that parking prices are effective in reducing congestion in the evening peak but less so in the morning peak.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Francis Ostermeijer","Hans Koster","Leonardo Nunes","Jos van Ommeren"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103418","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63f51a51d5ab3643","title":"A Simultaneous Moves Approach to the Complicated Simple Economics of Vertical Mergers","abstract":"We use a simultaneous move approach to modeling a vertical merger between a monopolist over an input with one of two competing downstream duopolists for general demand curves. As with a successive stages model, one can decompose the changes in the merged firm’s two prices (the price of its final good and the price that it charges its competitor for the input) into a change in the stand-alone profit-maximizing price and a cross-product effect that is a form of vertical pricing pressure. The model provides support for predicting downstream pricing effects with the difference between the elimination of double marginalization and downstream vertical pricing pressure (which we refer to as “Net Downstream Pricing Pressure” or “NDPP”). It also reveals why standard measures of upstream vertical pricing pressure overstate the incentive to raise rivals’ costs. We simulate the model for a wide set of parameters for four different functional forms of demand. Compared with the successive stages model, the fraction of cases that give rise to an increase in the Fisher Index is much smaller. In the simulations, the “NDPP” statistic is a strong predictor of the change in the Fisher Index.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Martino De Stefano","Michael A. Salinger"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09993-7","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-63f5353c25ba6561","title":"Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage","abstract":"We study whether workers progress up firm wage and size job ladders, and the cyclicality of this movement. Search theory predicts that workers should flow toward larger, higher paying firms. However, we see little evidence of a firm size ladder, partly because small, young firms poach workers from all other businesses. In contrast, we find strong evidence of a firm wage ladder that is highly procyclical. During the Great Recession, this firm wage ladder collapsed, with net worker reallocation to higher wage firms falling to zero. The earnings consequences from this lack of upward progression are sizable.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["John Haltiwanger","Henry R. Hyatt","Lisa Kahn","Erika McEntarfer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150245","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-63f706e1a3f05a0d","title":"The social dilemma of microinsurance: Free-riding in a framed field experiment","abstract":"Health shocks are among the most important unprotected risks for microfinance clients, but take-up of micro health insurance remains low. A framed field experiment with credit groups in Tanzania, eliciting demand for group versus individual insurance, attributes this to a social dilemma. In a context of joint liability, insurance is a public good because clients can rely on contributions from group members to cope with health shocks. We hypothesize that clients have a private incentive to free-ride and forgo individual insurance even when full enrollment optimizes group welfare. The binding nature of group insurance eliminates such free-riding. Our experiment yields substantial support for this hypothesis. Whereas the demand for group insurance is high, a substantial share of clients forgoes individual insurance and relies on peers to repay their loan when falling ill. Group insurance can potentially increase low take-up rates.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Wendy Janssens","Berber Kramer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.03.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-63fd1be78764cc57","title":"Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities","abstract":"Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in a municipality decreases the Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for the welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Jakub Lonsky"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00784-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-64072cfe7941d1fe","title":"Long-Run Consequences of Exposure to Natural Disasters","abstract":"We explore whether fetal and postnatal exposure to tropical cyclones affects education and income in adulthood by using World War I draft records linked to census data. Difference-in-differences estimates indicate that white males born in hurricane-prone US states who experienced a hurricane in utero or as infants had 5% lower income. Labor force participation was unaffected, while education and migration account for a small portion of the effects on income. Empirical tests suggest the persistent impact of damage is an unlikely channel. Thus, we attribute the findings to lower health capital stemming from temporary disruption in the aftermath of storms.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Krzysztof Karbownik","Anthony Wray"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/702652","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-64494dde49890d19","title":"Under the Radar: The Effects of Monitoring Firms on Tax Compliance","abstract":"This paper analyzes the effects of size-dependent tax enforcement on firms’ tax compliance. We exploit quasi-experimental variation generated by a Large Taxpayers Unit (LTU) in Spain, which monitors firms with more than €6 million in reported revenue. Firms strategically bunch below the eligibility threshold in order to avoid stricter tax enforcement. The response is stronger in sectors where transactions leave more paper trail, suggesting that monitoring effort and the traceability of information reported by firms are complements. We estimate that there would be substantial welfare gains from extending stricter tax monitoring to smaller businesses.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Miguel Almunia","David López Rodríguez"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160229","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-64504145e7ba37b6","title":"Identification of Economic Shocks by Inequality Constraints in Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression","abstract":"Theories often make predictions about the signs of the effects of economic shocks on observable variables, thus implying inequality constraints on the parameters of a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We introduce a new Bayesian procedure to evaluate the probabilities of such constraints, and, hence, to validate the theoretically implied economic shocks. We first estimate a SVAR, where the shocks are identified by statistical properties of the data, and subsequently label these statistically identified shocks by the Bayes factors calculated from their probabilities of satisfying given inequality constraints. In contrast to the related sign restriction approach that also makes use of theoretically implied inequality constraints, no restrictions are imposed. Hence, it is possible that only a subset or none of the theoretically implied shocks can be labelled. In the latter case, we conclude that the data do not lend support to the theory implying the signs of the effects in question. We illustrate the method by empirical applications to the crude oil market, and U.S. monetary policy.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Markku Lanne","Jani Luoto"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12338","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-64546c20f3225ac9","title":"The response to nutritional labels: Evidence from a quasi-experiment","abstract":"This paper evaluates a UK policy that aimed to improve dietary information provision by introducing nutrition labelling on retailers' store-brand products. Exploiting the differential timing of the introduction of Front-of-Pack nutrition labels as a quasi-experiment, our findings suggest that labelling led to a reduction in the quantity purchased of labelled store-brand foods, and an improvement in their nutritional composition. More specifically, we find that households reduced the total monthly calories from labelled store-brand foods by 588 kcal, saturated fats by 14 g, sugars by 7 g, and sodium by 0.8 mg.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Eleonora Fichera","Stephanie von Hinke"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102326","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-645e181cbaf2c9ae","title":"Random Pricing: Bertrand Competition with Uncontested Consumers","abstract":"Two firms offer a homogeneous product and compete in prices. Consumers are homogeneous yet differ in their access to the firms. Three groups exist: Consumers who have access to both firms and can compare prices; and consumers who can access only one of the two firms and are thus uncontested. The group sizes may differ: One firm’s uncontested consumer base may be zero. No pure strategy equilibrium exists. In the mixed equilibrium, firms randomize on the same continuum of prices; in expectation, the firm with the larger consumer base plays a higher price and has a higher expected demand. We study: the firms’ incentive to invest in demand; effects of price discrimination; and collusion. Moreover, we extend the model to more than two firms and discuss mergers.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Severin Lenhard"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10013-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-646f563bc9c7d200","title":"Group decision making with uncertain outcomes: Unpacking child–parent choice of the high school track","abstract":"Predicting group decisions under uncertainty requires disentangling individual members' utilities over the consequences of choice, their expectations for uncertain outcomes, and their choice process as a group. I estimate simple Bayesian models of child–parent choice of high school track with subjective risk and unilateral or bilateral, nonstrategic decisions, by combining families' actual choices with novel survey information about children's and parents' subjective probabilities over choice consequences, their individually preferred choices, and their decision roles. A set of policy counterfactuals confirms the importance of introducing the beliefs and decision roles of individual members in models and policy analysis of group decisions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Pamela Giustinelli"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12168","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6486d7c9fb2f798d","title":"Consumers' activism: the cottage cheese boycott","abstract":"We study a consumer boycott on cottage cheese, organized in Israel on Facebook in the summer of 2011 following a steep price increase since 2006. The boycott led to an immediate decline in prices, which remain low even six years later. We find that (i) demand at the start of the boycott would have been 30% higher but for the boycott, (ii) own‐ and especially cross‐price elasticities increased substantially after the boycott, and (iii) post‐boycott prices are substantially below the levels implied by the post‐boycott demand elasticities, suggesting that firms were concerned with public backlash due to high prices.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Igal Hendel","Saul Lach","Yossi Spiegel"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12212","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-648740fbf5441323","title":"Matching with slot-specific priorities: Theory","abstract":"We introduce a two-sided, many-to-one matching with contracts model in which agents with unit demand match to branches that may have multiple slots available to accept contracts. Each slot has its own linear priority order over contracts; a branch chooses contracts by filling its slots sequentially, according to an order of precedence. We demonstrate that in these matching markets with slot-specific priorities, branches' choice functions may not satisfy the substitutability conditions typically crucial for matching with contracts. Despite this complication, we are able to show that stable outcomes exist in the slot-specific priorities framework and can be found by a cumulative offer mechanism that is strategy-proof and respects unambiguous improvements in priority.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Scott Duke Kominers","Tayfun Sönmez"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1839","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-648a89ed2e7630d7","title":"Uncertainty and Unemployment","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of time-varying idiosyncratic risk at the establishment level on aggregate unemployment fluctuations and on the labor market over the period 1972-2009. I build a tractable search-and-matching model of the labor market with firm dynamics and heterogeneity in \\nproductivity and sizes, in which I introduce time-varying idiosyncratic volatility. The model features directed search and allows for endogenous separations, entry and exit of establishments, and job-to-job transitions. I show, first, that the model can replicate salient features of the behavior of firms at the microeconomic level. Second, I find that the introduction of time-varying idiosyncratic volatility improves the fit of search-and-matching models for a range of business cycle moments. In a series of counterfactual experiments, I then show that time-varying idiosyncratic risk is important to account for the magnitude of fluctuations in aggregate unemployment for past US recessions, including in particular the recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001. Though the model can account for about 40% of the total increase in unemployment for the 2007-2009 recession, uncertainty alone does not seem sufficient to explain the magnitude and persistence of unemployment observed during that period.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Edouard Schaal"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10557","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-648d4e714a786f88","title":"The unequal impact of ill health: Earnings, employment, and mental health among breast cancer survivors in Finland","abstract":"I study the impact of breast cancer on earnings, employment, and mental health among Finnish women, specifically examining whether there is a heterogeneous impact according to socioeconomic status. In addition, the contribution of the article lies in investigating the extent to which mental health problems mediate the impact on earnings and employment, and how efficiently social insurance system protects individuals from income loss due to sickness. The empirical analyses are based on unique register data including the total population of Finland from 2000 to 2016. As an identification strategy, the exact timing of cancer diagnosis is used. The results are based on difference-in-differences estimations. Breast cancer has an overall impact of –5.1 percent on annual earnings with significant differences between earnings quintiles: the negative impact in the second earnings quintile is the largest, –8.9 percent. Results hold when using other socioeconomic variables, while the impact is bigger when we include women with weaker labor market attachment to the analysis. Mental health problems mediate the impact only modestly. The negative effect is smaller when looking at total income highlighting the importance of the Finnish welfare state to buffer effects of ill health on economic well-being.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Maria Vaalavuo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.101967","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-64927cb9da5678c1","title":"Testing the level of consistency between choices and beliefs in games using eye-tracking","abstract":"We use eye-tracking to identify possible causes of inconsistency between choices and beliefs in games. Participants play a series of two-player 3×3 one-shot games (choice task) and state their beliefs about which actions they expect their counterpart to play (belief elicitation task). We use a model-based clustering method to group participants according to the pattern of visual analysis they use to make their decisions in the two tasks. We find that heterogeneity in the lookup patterns reflects the adoption of different models of choice. Our results suggest that there are two main reasons why participants do not best respond to their beliefs in games. First, many of them take into account the incentives of the counterpart when stating their beliefs, but not when choosing their actions. Second, some participants have other-regarding preferences and attempt to find a cooperative solution of the game.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Luca Polonio","Giorgio Coricelli"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2018.11.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6496a3ec174387f6","title":"Rationalizing sharing rules","abstract":"A partnership can yield a return—a loss or a profit relative to the partners' investments. How should the partners share the return? We identify the sharing rules satisfying classical properties (symmetry, consistency, and continuity) and avoiding arbitrary bounds on a partner's share. We show that any such rule can be rationalized in the sense that its recommendations are aligned with those maximizing a separable welfare function. Among these rules, we characterize those formalizing different notions of proportionality and, in particular, a convenient subclass specified by a single inequality aversion parameter. We also explore when a rule can be rationalized by a more general welfare function. Our central results extend to a wider class of resource allocation problems.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Karol Flores-Szwagrzak","Lars Peter Østerdal"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.08.018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-649e9543b3aba046","title":"The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data","abstract":"We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity in the United States at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report weekly statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, job postings, and employment rates disaggregated by county, sector, and income group. Using the publicly available data, we show how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its effects across subgroups. High-income individuals reduced spending sharply in March 2020, particularly in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent, dense areas. Those businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses, especially among low-wage workers in such areas. High-wage workers experienced a V-shaped recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger, more persistent job losses. Even though consumer spending and job postings had recovered fully by December 2021, employment rates in low-wage jobs remained depressed in areas that were initially hard hit, indicating that the temporary fall in labor demand led to a persistent reduction in labor supply. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we evaluate the effects of fiscal stimulus policies designed to stem the downward spiral in economic activity. Cash stimulus payments led to sharp increases in spending early in the pandemic, but much smaller responses later in the pandemic, especially for high-income households. Real-time estimates of marginal propensities to consume provided better forecasts of the impacts of subsequent rounds of stimulus payments than historical estimates. Overall, our findings suggest that fiscal policies can stem secondary declines in consumer spending and job losses, but cannot restore full employment when the initial shock to consumer spending arises from health concerns. More broadly, our analysis demonstrates how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and real-time policy analyses, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.","wordCount":314,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Raj Chetty","John N. Friedman","Michael Stepner","Opportunity Insights Team","Hamidah Alatas","Camille Baker","Harvey Barnhard","Matthew R. Bell","Gregory Alan Bruich","Tina Chelidze","LK Chu","Westley Cineus","Sebi Devlin-Foltz","Michael Droste","Dhruv Gaur","Federico Zertuche González","Rayshauna Gray","Abigail Hiller","Matthew Jacob","Tyler Jacobson","Margaret Kallus","Fiona Kastel","Laura Kincaide","Caitlin Kupsc","Sarah LaBauve","Lucía Martínez Lamas","Maddie Marino","Kai Matheson","Jared Miller","Christian Mott","Kate Musen","Danny Onorato","Sarah Oppenheimer","Trina Ott","Lynn Overmann","Max Pienkny","Jeremiah Prince","Sebastian Puerta","Daniel A. Reuter","Peter Ruhm","Tom Rutter","Emanuel Schertz","Shannon Felton Spence","Krista Stapleford","Kamelia Stavreva","Ceci Steyn","James Stratton","Clare Suter","Elizabeth Thach","Nicolaj Thor","Amanda Wahlers","Kristen Watkins","A.K. Williams","David Williams","Chase Williamson","Shady Yassin","Ruby Zhang","Aiyun Zheng"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad048","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-649f92b68d1c43a8","title":"Natural Disasters, Technology Diversity, and Operating Performance","abstract":"In this paper, we empirically measure the impact of natural disasters on firm-level operating performance and examine if such impact can be mitigated by technology diversification. Using major natural disasters specified by Barrot and Sauvagnat (2015) and factory location data from the toxic release inventory (TRI) database, we first find that firms with factories located in states affected by natural disasters are much less profitable. Second, we find that firms with diversified technologies are significantly less subject to the impact of natural disasters, suggesting that technology diversity enhances firms’ sustainability.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Po‐Hsuan Hsu","Hsiao‐Hui Lee","Shu-Cing Peng","Long Yi"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00738","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-64a103725124242a","title":"Can FDI explain the growth disparity of the BRIC and the non-BRIC countries? Theoretical and empirical evidence from panel growth regressions","abstract":"The aim of this paper is to explain the growth disparity between the four major emerging economies that are widely known with the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and the non-BRIC countries. There is ample evidence in the literature that FDI is growth enhancing, however there is little discussion whether FDI is the main driving factor of growth disparities between different countries. We utilise a balanced panel dataset for the BRICs and 50 other developing economies from 1980 to 2020. Our findings advocate that foreign direct investments, gross capital formation, human capital, and infrastructure are particularly important for economic growth. However, foreign direct investments, gross capital formation and human capital are observed to be more efficacious in BRICs. Also, the relative significance of foreign direct investments seems to be conditional on the presence of better-quality human capital and higher levels of domestic investments in BRICs, thus explaining the growth disparities.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Seefat-E-Rabbi Khan","Dimitrios Asteriou","Claudia de Lozanne Jefferies"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106306","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-64a65c11e0f50b28","title":"Aversion to health inequality — Pure, income-related and income-caused","abstract":"We design a novel experiment to identify aversion to pure (univariate) health inequality separately from aversion to income-related and income-caused health inequality. Participants allocate resources to determine health of individuals. Identification comes from random variation in resource productivity and information on income and its causal effect. We gather data (26,286 observations) from a sample of UK adults (n = 337) and estimate pooled and participant-specific social preferences while accounting for noise. The median person has strong aversion to pure health inequality, challenging the health maximisation objective of economic evaluation. Aversion to health inequality is even stronger when it is related to income. However, the median person prioritises health of poorer individuals less than is assumed in the standard measure of income-related health inequality. On average, aversion to that inequality does not become stronger when low income is known to cause ill-health. There is substantial heterogeneity in all three types of inequality aversion.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Matthew Robson","Owen O’Donnell","Tom Van Ourti"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102856","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-64b2b3c7d2ed5b99","title":"Is fairness intuitive? An experiment accounting for subjective utility differences under time pressure","abstract":"Evidence from response time studies and time pressure experiments has led several authors to conclude that “fairness is intuitive”. In light of conflicting findings, we provide theoretical arguments showing under which conditions an increase in “fairness” due to time pressure indeed provides unambiguous evidence in favor of the “fairness is intuitive” hypothesis. Drawing on recent applications of the Drift Diffusion Model (Krajbich et al. in Nat Commun 6:7455, 2015a), we demonstrate how the subjective difficulty of making a choice affects decisions under time pressure and time delay, thereby making an unambiguous interpretation of time pressure effects contingent on the choice situation. To explore our theoretical considerations and to retest the “fairness is intuitive” hypothesis, we analyze choices in two-person binary dictator and prisoner’s dilemma games under time pressure or time delay. In addition, we manipulate the subjective difficulty of choosing the fair relative to the selfish option. Our main finding is that time pressure does not consistently promote fairness in situations where this would be predicted after accounting for choice difficulty. Hence, our results cast doubt on the hypothesis that “fairness is intuitive”.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Anna Merkel","Johannes Lohse"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9566-3","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-64c30fbdb82e6c5c","title":"Nonclassical measurement error and farmers’ response to information treatment","abstract":"This paper reports on a randomized experiment conducted among Malawian agricultural households to study nonclassical measurement error (NCME) in self-reported plot area, and farmers' responses to new information — the objective plot area measure — subsequently provided to them. Farmers' pre-treatment self-reported plot areas exhibit considerable NCME. Most of the measurement error follows a regression-to-mean pattern with respect to plot area, and another 18 percent arises from asymmetric rounding to half acre increments. Randomized provision of GPS-based measures of true plot area generates four important findings. First, most treated farmers’ self-reports exhibit no reduction in NCME after the provision of true plot area measures. Second, farmers update asymmetrically in response to information, with upward corrections being far more common than downward ones even though most plot sizes were initially overestimated. Third, the magnitude of updating varies by true plot area, as well as the magnitude and direction of initial NCME. Fourth, the information treatment affects self-reported information about non-land inputs such as fertilizer and labor, indicating that the effects of measurement error and updating spillover across variables. NCME clearly carries implications for survey data collection methods, econometric inference, and the design of information-based interventions. It might also reflect behavioral anomalies that may matter for farm management practices, input allocation, agricultural productivity, and the design of effective interventions.","wordCount":217,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Kibrom A. Abay","Christopher B. Barrett","Talip Kilic","Heather Moylan","John Ilukor","Wilbert Drazi Vundru"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103136","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-64ea7f6de5221f76","title":"Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops","abstract":"The recent unravelling of the Eurozone’s financial integration raised concerns about feedback loops between sovereign and banking insolvency. This article provides a theory of the feedback loop that allows for both domestic bailouts of the banking system and sovereign debt forgiveness by international creditors or solidarity by other countries. Our theory has important implications for the re-nationalization of sovereign debt, macroprudential regulation, and the rationale for banking unions.","wordCount":68,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Emmanuel Farhi","Jean Tirole"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx059","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-64f39d40dbc4ca1b","title":"Residential rent externalities of photovoltaic systems: The relevance of view","abstract":"In a three-dimensional topographic model of Switzerland, we study how the view at photovoltaic (PV) systems affects residential real estate. Our hedonic difference-in-differences regressions provide evidence that the view at a PV system is associated with lower residential rents. We consider different view types to examine amplifiers and attenuators of these negative externalities. Using municipal voting results and data on electric vehicles, we document causal pathways of the effect that align with stated and lived preferences for sustainability. Similar causal pathways of negative externalities are evident through municipalities’ solar energy production potential and their local demand elasticities for housing.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Roland Füss","Kathleen Kürschner Rauck","Alois Weigand"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104138","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-64f9b811deaaa7e4","title":"Labor productivity and employment gaps in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"Drawing on a new set of nationally representative, internationally comparable household surveys, this paper provides an overview of key features of structural transformation - labor allocation and labor productivity - in four African economies. New, micro-based measures of sector labor allocation and cross-sector productivity differentials describe the incentives households face when allocating their labor. These measures are similar to national accounts-based measures that are typically used to characterize structural change. However, because agricultural workers supply far fewer hours of labor per year than do workers in other sectors in all of the countries analyzed, productivity gaps shrink by half, on average, when expressed on a per-hour basis. Underlying the productivity gaps that are prominently reflected in national accounts data are large employment gaps, which call into question the productivity gains that laborers can achieve through structural transformation. Furthermore, agriculture's continued relevance to structural change in Sub-Saharan Africa is highlighted by the strong linkages observed between rural non-farm activities and primary agricultural production.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Ellen McCullough"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-64fbe378c5aab5db","title":"Optimal Covid-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies","abstract":"We study quantitatively the optimality of quarantine and testing policies; and whether they are complements or substitutes. We extend the epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to incorporate an information friction. Our main finding is that testing is a cost-efficient substitute for lockdowns, rendering them almost unnecessary. By identifying carriers, testing contains the spread of the virus without reducing output, although the implementation requires widespread massive testing. As a byproduct, we show that two distinct optimal lockdown policy types arise: suppression, intended to eliminate the virus, and mitigation, concerned about flattening the curve. The choice between them is determined by a ‘hope-for-the-cure’ effect, arising due to either an expected vaccine or the belief that the virus can be eliminated. Conditional on the policy type, the intensity and duration of the intervention is invariant to both the trade-off between lives and output and the aversion to GDP variations: the optimal intervention path depends mostly on the virus dynamics.","wordCount":154,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Facundo Piguillem","Liyan Shi"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac026","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6501cfab4b9201b5","title":"An Analysis of Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines","abstract":"Prices for the same flight change substantially depending on the time of purchase. This article uses a unique data set with round‐the‐clock posted fares to document significant within‐day price variation. Labeling time‐variation as discriminatory is difficult because the cost of an unsold airline seat changes with inventory, days before departure, and aggregate demand expectations. After controlling for these factors and aggregating hourly fares to have a framework with two consumer types, we are able to identify a component that is largely consistent with dynamic price discrimination. We find higher prices during office hours (when business travelers are likely to buy) and lower prices in the evening (when leisure travelers are more likely to purchase). As the proportion of business travelers increases closer to departure, both price dispersion and price discrimination become larger. We provide an alternative explanation for the observed within‐day price differentials which is related to Edgeworth price cycles.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Diego Escobari","Nicholas G. Rupp","Joseph Meskey"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12309","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6506a1446c2edfff","title":"Your money and your life: Risk attitudes over gains and losses","abstract":"Prospect theory is the most influential descriptive alternative to the orthodox model of rational choice under risk and uncertainty, in terms of empirical analyses of some of its principal parameters and as a consideration in behavioural public policy. Yet the most distinctive implication of the theory—a fourfold predicted pattern of risk attitudes called the reflection effect—has been infrequently studied and with mixed results over money outcomes, and has never been completely tested over health outcomes. This article reports tests of reflection over money and health outcomes defined by life years gained from treatment. With open valuation exercises, the results suggest qualified support for the reflection effect over money outcomes and strong support over health outcomes. However, in pairwise choice questions, reflection was substantially ameliorated over life years, remaining significant only for treatments that offered short additional durations of life.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Adam Oliver"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9284-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6509aa30e29045d2","title":"From local to global: A theory of public basic research in a globalized world","abstract":"We analyze public basic research in a multi-country, multi-industry environment with international trade. Basic research generates ideas, which firms take up in applied research to develop new varieties. A country’s specialization in international trade thus determines which ideas can be commercialized domestically. We demonstrate that the equilibrium is consistent with key empirical patterns. We then show that national investments may cause inefficiencies along three dimensions: (1) There is typically too little total investment in basic research. (2) Basic research is too heavily concentrated in industrialized countries. (3) Basic research may not be sufficiently directed to support innovation in complex, high-tech industries. These inefficiencies can rationalize international coordination of basic research investments or support policies such as the Bayh Dole Act.","wordCount":120,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Hans Gersbach","Ulrich Schetter","Samuel Schmassmann"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104530","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6519a004b05502b1","title":"Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior","abstract":"We link the county-level rollout of stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic to anonymized cell phone records and consumer spending data. We document three patterns. First, stay-at-home orders caused people to stay home: county-level measures of mobility declined 6% to 7% within two days of when the stay-at-home order went into effect. Second, stay-at-home orders caused large reductions in spending in sectors associated with mobility: small businesses and large retail chains. Third, we estimate fairly uniform responses to stay-at-home orders across the country; effects do not vary by county-level income, political leanings, or urban/rural status.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Diane Alexander","Ezra Karger"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01108","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-65232098495ba293","title":"The labor market impacts of Brexit: Migration and the European union","abstract":"Given the uncertainty over the post-Brexit immigration system between the UK and EU, how are new migration regulations affecting labor markets? Existing studies indicate that the details of migration policies are pivotal in determining whether workers and aggregate labor market conditions are harmed by restrictions on cross-border movement. This paper builds a two-country model with costly, endogenous migration and frictional labor markets to better understand the effects of migration restrictions over the long-run. The importance of understanding these effects is highlighted by model predictions for heterogeneous impacts on labor market outcomes for workers based on their migration history. A Brexit calibration exercise shows that under model assumptions, increasing migration restrictions is associated with higher unemployment, lower wages, and welfare loss in aggregate, largely through lowering job surplus. Lower migration costs results in better outcomes for workers: keeping visa costs to a minimum is an important channel for maintaining mutually beneficial migration intact.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Kristina Sargent"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106196","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6526154b20431281","title":"Court Enforcement, Bank Loans, and Firm Investment: Evidence from a Bankruptcy Reform in Brazil","abstract":"We exploit variation in the congestion of civil courts across Brazilian municipalities, together with a bankruptcy reform increasing secured creditors’ protection, to estimate the effect of enforcement on firm access to finance, investment, and size. We find that firms operating in municipalities with less congested courts experienced a larger increase in the use of secured loans, as well as a larger increase in investment and value of output in the years after the reform. To establish the direction of causality, we use an instrumental variable strategy that exploits Brazilian state laws on judicial organization, and focus on differences in court congestion across otherwise similar neighboring municipalities located across judicial district borders within the same state. The evidence indicates that differences in court enforcement affect the impact of financial reform on firm access to finance, investment, and size.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jacopo Ponticelli","Leonardo S. Alencar"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw015","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6541eb1a93e0a24b","title":"Who leads and who follows? The cross-border peer effect in investment by Chinese and US firms","abstract":"We document a cross-border peer effect in corporate investment across two key economies, China and the US. Results show that investment by individual Chinese firms lags US peers without feedback in the other direction. This association is stronger for Chinese firms in manufacturing, with innovative US peers, once China joined WTO , or targeted by anti-dumping investigations or measures as reported to the WTO . These findings are robust to diagnostic tests and alternative specifications. Furthermore, Chinese firms respond to domestic competition by learning from US peers. Our findings illustrate how peer competition induced by foreign trade and international institutions affects corporate decision-making in China’s rapidly-growing economy.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Warren Bailey","Jerry Cao","Zhenyi Yang","Sili Zhou"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103875","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-65543b4ca287c003","title":"Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle","abstract":"This paper investigates household leverage-dependent fiscal policy effects in a two-agent New Keynesian DSGE model with occasionally binding borrowing constraints. Our model successfully replicates empirical evidence showing that fiscal policy’s effectiveness differs significantly across the household leverage cycle. Fiscal multipliers are persistently above unity when government spending rises at the peak of the household leverage cycle. In contrast, increases in government spending at the trough of the household leverage cycle imply fiscal multipliers below unity. We test the model’s predictions on post-WWII U.S. data.","wordCount":84,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Mathias Klein","Hamza Polattimur","Roland Winkler"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103989","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6559be4cedd6c850","title":"Uncertainty aversion in game theory: Experimental evidence","abstract":"This paper studies, using a laboratory experiment, the effects of uncertainty aversion (the union of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion) on behavior in a normal form game. We isolate and identify two components of uncertainty aversion in games: the effect of an agent’s own uncertainty preferences and effect of the agent’s beliefs regarding their opponent’s uncertainty preferences. Uncertainty preferences are correlated with behavior in games. Induced beliefs about the risk preferences of an opponent have a larger effect on strategic behavior than induced beliefs about an opponent’s ambiguity preferences, although both components have a significant effect on behavior. The results support the hypothesis that strategic uncertainty is an important determinant of strategic behavior, and that the response to strategic uncertainty is modulated by subject uncertainty attitudes.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Evan M. Calford"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.06.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6573997be85e29c0","title":"Connecting alone: Smartphone use, quality of social interactions and well-being","abstract":"This paper investigates the role played by the smartphone for the quality of social interactions and subjective well-being. We argue that the intrusiveness of the smartphone reduces the quality of face-to-face interactions and their positive impact on well-being. We test this hypothesis in a large and representative sample of Italian individuals. We find that time spent with friends is worth less, in terms of subjective well-being, for individuals who use the smartphone. This finding is robust to the use of alternative empirical specifications or instrumental variables to deal with possible endogeneity. In addition, consistent with the hypothesis that the smartphone undermines the quality of face-to-face interactions, the positive association between time spent with friends and satisfaction with friends is less strong for individuals who use the smartphone.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Valentina Rotondi","Luca Stanca","Miriam Tomasuolo"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2017.09.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-657ef8d6f6f5b7d9","title":"Inference on Directionally Differentiable Functions","abstract":"This article studies an asymptotic framework for conducting inference on parameters of the form $\\phi(\\theta_0)$, where $\\phi$ is a known directionally differentiable function and $\\theta_0$ is estimated by $\\hat \\theta_n$. In these settings, the asymptotic distribution of the plug-in estimator $\\phi(\\hat \\theta_n)$ can be derived employing existing extensions to the Delta method. We show, however, that (full) differentiability of $\\phi$ is a necessary and sufficient condition for bootstrap consistency whenever the limiting distribution of $\\hat \\theta_n$ is Gaussian. An alternative resampling scheme is proposed that remains consistent when the bootstrap fails, and is shown to provide local size control under restrictions on the directional derivative of $\\phi$. These results enable us to reduce potentially challenging statistical problems to simple analytical calculations—a feature we illustrate by developing a test of whether an identified parameter belongs to a convex set. We highlight the empirical relevance of our results by conducting inference on the qualitative features of trends in (residual) wage inequality in the U.S.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Zheng Fang","Andres Santos"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy049","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-65826cc78ea6c3af","title":"Bounds on treatment effects on transitions","abstract":"This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long-run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead, we derive bounds on these average effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, for example, proportional hazards. We also explore assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Johan Vikström","Geert Ridder","Martin Weidner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6591e14afa014357","title":"The Evolution of Work in the United States","abstract":"Using the text from job ads, we introduce a new dataset to describe the evolution of work from 1950 to 2000. We show that the transformation of the US labor market away from routine cognitive and manual tasks and toward nonroutine interactive and analytic tasks has been larger than prior research has found, with a substantial fraction of total changes occurring within narrowly defined job titles. We provide narrative and systematic evidence on changes in task content within job titles and on the emergence and disappearance of individual job titles.","wordCount":90,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Enghin Atalay","Phai Phongthiengtham","Sebastian Sotelo","Daniel Tannenbaum"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190070","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6597e057b8e65704","title":"The intrinsic value of decision rights: Field evidence from electricity contract choice automation","abstract":"Previous laboratory evidence suggests that people tend to value their decision right beyond its instrumental value. We measure the intrinsic value of decision rights in the context of switching the electricity provider. We focus on customers of an online platform who can either choose a service that reminds them when they are allowed to switch their electricity contract or a service that automatically switches the contract on their behalf whenever possible. Our focus is on the intrinsic value of decision rights as a potential obstacle of this choice automation. Surprisingly, we find that customers who make use of the automation service assign significantly higher intrinsic value to their decision rights, compared to those who opted for the mere reminder. Hence, there appears to be a connection between having a high intrinsic value of decision rights and the level of interest in attributes of the automation service under consideration. The positive correlation suggests that the widespread positive intrinsic value of decision rights and the future adoption of similar automation services and devices do not necessarily contradict each other.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Christoph Feldhaus","Jörg Lingens","Andreas Löschel","Gerald Zunker"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101440","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6598f91e58e04390","title":"The economics of savings groups","abstract":"Millions of households worldwide rely on savings groups (SGs) to satisfy their financial needs, yet important gaps remain in our understanding of this novel financial institution. We show theoretically that, within an SG, the supply of funds could fall short or be in excess of its demand. Then, we use week‐by‐week records from 46 Ugandan SGs to show that most groups do not generate sufficient loanable funds. We conclude by proposing three interventions that, in light of our model, should ease credit rationing and improve the welfare of SG members: requiring SG members to publicly state their savings and borrowing goals, encouraging early savings, and linking SGs with formal financial institutions.","wordCount":111,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Alfredo Burlando","Andrea Canidio","Rebekah Selby"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12526","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-65a9a2314c34e847","title":"The timing of welfare payments and intimate partner violence","abstract":"I examine transfer schedules for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ( TANF ) program and find a causal relationship between the time directly after welfare payments and intimate partner violence against women. This study supports the hypothesis that the husband uses threats of violence as an instrument to gain control over the allocation of household resources, and suggests that the increased incidence in physical violence after welfare payments is associated with alcohol use. Additionally, I find that states that pay TANF recipients twice a month do not have this effect on threats of violence. This suggests that smaller, more frequent payments may reduce the husband's incentive to use verbal violence as a bargaining tool.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Linchi Hsu"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12413","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-65c1392f501c57f1","title":"A New Spatial Hedonic Equilibrium in the Emerging Work-from-Home Economy?","abstract":"This paper studies the impacts of work from home (WFH) in the housing market from both intercity and intracity perspectives. Our results confirm the theoretical prediction that WFH puts downward pressure on housing prices and rents in high-productivity counties, a result of workers starting to relocate to cheaper metro areas during the pandemic without forsaking their desirable jobs. We also show that WFH tends to flatten intracity house-price gradients, weakening the price premium associated with good job access.","wordCount":78,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jan K. Brueckner","Matthew E. Kahn","Gary C. Lin"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20210190","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-65d9205bb8be2ea1","title":"Who gains, who loses? – The impact of the belt and road initiative on bilateral agricultural trade","abstract":"The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global development strategy proposed by China, has received extensive attention from researchers in the field of international trade and development economics. However, little is known about the BRI's effect on bilateral agricultural trade. This paper quantifies the effect of BRI on global agricultural trade, especially between China and BRI participating countries, based on structural gravity models and the General Equilibrium Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (GEPPML) method. Our results show that BRI has a significant and positive impact on global agricultural trade. BRI not only improves the agricultural trade between China and its BRI partners but also stimulates agricultural trade between BRI participating and non-participating countries, indicating a pure trade creation effect. We find the heterogeneous effect of BRI in participating countries regarding per capita income, showing an increase in agricultural exports from China to non-high-income BRI countries but a reduction in exports from China to high-income BRI countries. It highlights the importance of considering specific economic status when formulating trade agreements with trade partners. We find the significant positive impact of BRI on welfare gains, particularly for consumers in China and producers in BRI participating countries. Meanwhile, BRI leads to a reallocation of China's agricultural imports away from the United States and Brazil towards neighboring BRI participating countries.","wordCount":215,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yongzhi Zhao","Changjing Ji","Yangfen Chen","Xueqin Zhu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102284","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-65dfe9e54b4ceb55","title":"How do U.S. visa policies affect unauthorized immigration?","abstract":"How would increasing the number of visas available to potential migrants affect unauthorized immigration from Mexico to the U.S.? Current U.S. policy bans people who are deported from receiving legal status for a period of time. This policy aims to serve as an additional deterrent to unauthorized immigration, but may be ineffective given that most potential Mexican migrants have an extremely low probability of ever being able to legally move to the U.S. We develop a dynamic discrete location choice model, which we estimate using data from the Mexican Migration Project, and consider various counterfactual policies that vary the intensity of enforcement and access to work visas. We find that legal entry bans for deported individuals are ineffective at current rates of legal immigration, but that increased legalization rates would amplify the deterrent effects of deportation. We also show that a temporary work visa program would yield similar deterrent effects as an increase in permanent legalization without resulting in very large increases in the total stock of migrants residing in the U.S. These findings have important implications for structuring future immigration reforms.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Brian K. Kovak","Rebecca Lessem"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-65e116815f3af0a6","title":"Young Adults Living with their Parents and the Influence of Peers","abstract":"This study examines the impact of peer behaviour on the living arrangements of young adults in the US using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We achieve identification by exploiting the differences in the timing of leaving the parental home among peers, the individual‐specific nature of the peer groups that are based on friendship nominations, and by including network and cohort fixed effects. Our results indicate that there are statistically significant peer effects on young adults’ decisions to leave the parental home. We discuss various mechanisms and confirm the robustness of our results through a placebo exercise.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Effrosyni Adamopoulou","Ezgi Kaya"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12198","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-65fa5b72b1b5fa06","title":"Strategy-proof multi-object mechanism design: Ex-post revenue maximization with non-quasilinear preferences","abstract":"A seller is selling multiple objects to a set of agents, who can buy at most one object. Each agent's preference over (object, payment) pairs need not be quasilinear. The seller considers the following desiderata for her mechanism, which she terms desirable: (1) strategy-proofness, (2) ex-post individual rationality, (3) equal treatment of equals, (4) no wastage (every object is allocated to some agent). The minimum Walrasian equilibrium price (MWEP) mechanism is desirable. We show that at each preference profile, the MWEP mechanism generates more revenue for the seller than any desirable mechanism satisfying no subsidy. Our result works for the quasilinear domain, where the MWEP mechanism is the VCG mechanism, and for various non-quasilinear domains, some of which incorporate positive income effect of agents. We can relax no subsidy to no bankruptcy in our result for certain domains with positive income effect.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Tomoya Kazumura","Debasis Mishra","Shigehiro Serizawa"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105036","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-65fd81d5da6bd2df","title":"College Admission with Multidimensional Privileges: The Brazilian Affirmative Action Case","abstract":"In 2012, Brazilian public universities were mandated to use affirmative action policies for candidates from racial and income minorities. We show that the policy makes the students’ affirmative action status a strategic choice and may reject high-achieving minority students while admitting low-achieving majority students. Empirical data shows evidence consistent with this type of unfairness in more than 49 percent of the programs. We propose a selection criterion and an incentive-compatible mechanism that, for a wider range of similar problems and the one in Brazil in particular, is fair and removes any gain from strategizing over the privileges claimed.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Orhan Aygün","Inácio Bó"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170364","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6615ac1f8fcc029f","title":"Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate","abstract":"We show that housing markets provide information about the appropriate discount rates for valuing investments in climate change abatement. Real estate is exposed to both consumption and climate risk and its term structure of discount rates is downward sloping, reaching 2.6% for payoffs beyond 100 years. We use a tractable asset pricing model that incorporates features of climate change to show that the term structure of discount rates for climate-hedging investments is thus upward sloping but bounded above by the risk-free rate. At horizons at which risk-free rates are unavailable, the estimated housing discount rates provide an upper bound.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Stefano Giglio","Matteo Maggiori","K. H. Rao","Johannes Stroebel","Andreas Weber"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-662291febd0efb1e","title":"Local irrigation response to ethanol expansion in the High Plains Aquifer","abstract":"Global ethanol production has grown rapidly due to national renewable fuel programs. Concern has grown over impacts that land conversion and crop displacement driven by ethanol feedstock production might have on water resources. In this paper, we examine irrigation decisions of agricultural producers in the Kansas portion of the High Plains Aquifer in response to local ethanol market expansion. To identify the effects of ethanol expansion on irrigation decisions, we examine field-level data on irrigation water use, irrigated acreage, and crop decisions for the years 2003–2017 for nearly 23,000 fields in Kansas. We measure the response of three irrigation decisions, (i) irrigated acreage, (ii) irrigation per acre, and (iii) total water use to the introduction and capacity expansion of an ethanol plant. We find that ethanol market expansion did lead to increases in irrigation water use. Specifically, a 10 % increase in ethanol capacity within 50KM increases annual water use by 0.22 % per field (4.8 acre-inches/field). We predict that ethanol markets accounted for about 4% of total irrigated water use in 2017.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Gabriel S. Sampson","Amer Al-Sudani","Jason S. Bergtold"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101249","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-66288aefee45d9cb","title":"Testing the School‐to‐Prison Pipeline","abstract":"The School‐to‐Prison Pipeline is a social phenomenon where students become formally involved with the criminal justice system as a result of school policies that use law enforcement, rather than discipline, to address behavioral problems. A potentially important part of the School‐to‐Prison Pipeline is the use of sworn School Resource Officers (SROs), but there is little research on the causal effect of hiring these officers on school crime or arrests. Using credibly exogenous variation in the use of SROs generated by federal hiring grants specifically to place law enforcement in schools, I find evidence that law enforcement agencies learn about more crimes in schools upon receipt of a grant, and are more likely to make arrests for those crimes. This primarily affects children under the age of 15. However, I also find evidence that SROs increase school safety, and help law enforcement agencies make arrests for drug crimes occurring on and off school grounds.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Emily Owens"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21954","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-664061b682305b6e","title":"Transparency and sustainability in global commodity supply chains","abstract":"Over the last few decades rapid advances in processes to collect, monitor, disclose, and disseminate information have contributed towards the development of entirely new modes of sustainability governance for global commodity supply chains. However, there has been very little critical appraisal of the contribution made by different transparency initiatives to sustainability and the ways in which they can (and cannot) influence new governance arrangements. Here we seek to strengthen the theoretical underpinning of research and action on supply chain transparency by addressing four questions: (1) What is meant by supply chain transparency? (2) What is the relevance of supply chain transparency to supply chain sustainability governance? (3) What is the current status of supply chain transparency, and what are the strengths and weaknesses of existing initiatives? and (4) What propositions can be advanced for how transparency can have a positive transformative effect on the governance interventions that seek to strengthen sustainability outcomes? We use examples from agricultural supply chains and the zero-deforestation agenda as a focus of our analysis but draw insights that are relevant to the transparency and sustainability of supply chains in general. We propose a typology to distinguish among types of supply chain information that are needed to support improvements in sustainability governance, and illustrate a number of major shortfalls and systematic biases in existing information systems. We also propose a set of ten propositions that, taken together, serve to expose some of the potential pitfalls and undesirable outcomes that may result from (inevitably) limited or poorly designed transparency systems, whilst offering guidance on some of the ways in which greater transparency can make a more effective, lasting and positive contribution to sustainability.","wordCount":276,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Toby Gardner","Magnus Benzie","Jan Börner","Elena Dawkins","Steve Fick","Rachael Garrett","Javier Godar","A. Grimard","Sarah Lake","Rasmus Kløcker Larsen","N. Mardas","Constance L. McDermott","Patrick Meyfroidt","Maria Osbeck","U. Martin Persson","Thomas Sembrés","C. Suavet","Bernardo B. N. Strassburg","Adriana Hofmann Trevisan","Chris West","P. Wolvekamp"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","M"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.025","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6647f78b94b415b8","title":"Extreme comovements and downside/upside risk spillovers between oil prices and exchange rates","abstract":"This paper examines the dependence structure and risk spillovers between oil prices and exchange rates in both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Using a flexible dependence switching copula model, we analyze both positive and negative dependence and transitions between the dependence regimes. Additionally, we investigate the directional risk spillovers between oil and currency markets in both their downsides and upsides. Based on empirical data from 1999 to 2024 for major oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, we find that oil price-currency dependence is predominantly positive for oil-exporting countries, with infrequent transitions, but mainly negative for oil-importing countries, with frequent transitions between the two dependence regimes. These transitions often occur around crisis or war times. Furthermore, we observe that during downturns in the oil market, tail dependence between oil prices and currencies becomes more pronounced than during upturns. Our results indicate the presence of risk spillovers between oil and currency markets, with the downside spillover effects outweighing the upside ones. Moreover, we find that risk spillover is stronger from oil markets to currency markets than the reverse direction. These insights substantially enrich the existing literature and would offer valuable implications for effective risk management strategies and policymaking.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Cathy Ning","Dinghai Xu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000543","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-667d66368c24b27f","title":"The internet and children’s psychological wellbeing","abstract":"Late childhood and adolescence is a critical time for social and emotional development. Over the past two decades, this life stage has been hugely affected by the almost universal adoption of the internet as a source of information, communication, and entertainment. We use a large representative sample of over 6300 children in England over the period 2012-2017, to estimate the effect of neighbourhood broadband speed, as a proxy for internet use, on a number of wellbeing outcomes, which reflect how these children feel about different aspects of their life. We find that internet use is negatively associated with wellbeing across a number of domains. The strongest effect is for how children feel about their appearance, and the effects are worse for girls than boys. We test a number of potential causal mechanisms, and find support both for the 'crowding out' hypothesis, whereby internet use reduces the time spent on other beneficial activities, and for the adverse effect of social media use. Our evidence adds weight to the already strident calls for interventions that can reduce the adverse effects of internet use on children's emotional health.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Emily McDool","Philip A. Powell","Jennifer Roberts","Karl Taylor"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102274","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-668ac29d2a998e15","title":"Plant-level adjustments to imports and exports at the extensive margin","abstract":"This paper presents an empirical analysis of plant level responses to the China trade shock based upon a DSGE framework with heterogeneous firms. The empirical analysis shows that soaring imports from China are associated with a higher probability of plant closure. By contrast, firms in export oriented industries are less likely to exit. We rationalize these findings by several counter-factual experiments based upon a DSGE framework. Imports always raise the exit rate but the export-effect is ambiguous. More exports fuel competition among domestic rivals associated with more exits. However, this competition effect disappears when the share of exporters is extremely high. The effects of imports and exports on firm entry are close to zero in both theory and empircs. We also introduce a novel productivity shock channel. Additional export sales better protect firms from other shocks. We show this by introducing negative productivity shocks into the model.","wordCount":147,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Andreas Hauptmann","Hans‐Jörg Schmerer","Benjamin Schwanebeck"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102212","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-668da0a9a5cf3604","title":"What is considered deception in experimental economics?","abstract":"In experimental economics there is a norm against using deception. But precisely what constitutes deception is unclear. While there is a consensus view that providing false information is not permitted, there are also “gray areas” with respect to practices that omit information or are misleading without an explicit lie being told. In this paper, we report the results of a large survey among experimental economists and students concerning various specific gray areas. We find that there is substantial heterogeneity across respondent choices. The data indicate a perception that costs and benefits matter, so that such practices might in fact be appropriate when the topic is important and there is no other way to gather data. Compared to researchers, students have different attitudes about some of the methods in the specific scenarios that we ask about. Few students express awareness of the no-deception policy at their schools. We also briefly discuss some potential alternatives to “gray-area” deception, primarily based on suggestions offered by respondents.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Gary Charness","Anya Samek","Jeroen van de Ven"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09726-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-66927011bcfa9401","title":"Business uncertainty and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in germany","abstract":"There are suggestions that increased uncertainty makes fiscal policy temporarily less effective. In this paper, I examine the relationship between business uncertainty and fiscal policy effectiveness in Germany. I use measures of business uncertainty that are derived from the firm-level data of the Ifo Business Climate Survey and interact them with the parameters of a structural vector autoregression to produce state-dependent spending multipliers. The impact of increased uncertainty on the spending multiplier is generally small and often statistically not significant in the short run. By contrast, I obtain a significant positive impact on the long-run multiplier. These baseline results are supported by a variety of robustness checks and specifications.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Tim Oliver Berg"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000281","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6699fff08e399a3a","title":"Environmental goods provision and gentrification: Evidence from MillionTreesNYC","abstract":"Urban trees offer extensive environmental benefits. However, the distribution of trees in urban areas often disproportionately favors higher-income neighborhoods. Implementing tree-planting programs in lower-income neighborhoods may provide environmental amenity values but may also lead to unintended consequences, such as gentrification. This paper focuses on one of the largest tree-planting programs in the U.S., the MillionTreesNYC Program, and estimates the impact of an increased supply of urban street trees on housing values and neighborhood compositions. The results demonstrate that the additional urban street trees did serve as an environmental amenity, resulting in higher housing values and attracting more white, educated, and young households to areas with new trees. However, the gentrification effects of this tree-planting program were relatively small, with minimal change in community composition. These findings suggest that it is possible to provide public goods without significant displacement of the existing population while also reaping the numerous benefits trees offer to urban areas.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Liqing Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102828","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-669a038b4b464184","title":"A Field Experiment on Search Costs and the Formation of Scientific Collaborations","abstract":"We present the results of a field experiment conducted at Harvard Medical School to understand the extent to which search costs affect matching among scientific collaborators. We generated exogenous variation in search costs for pairs of potential collaborators by randomly assigning individuals to 90-minute structured information-sharing sessions as part of a [grant] opportunity. We estimate that the treatment increases the probability of [grant] of a given pair of researchers by 75%. The findings suggest that matching between scientists is subject to considerable frictions, even in the case of geographically-proximate scientists working in the same institutional context.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Kevin Boudreau","Tom Brady","Ina Ganguli","Patrick Gaulé","Eva C. Guinan","Anthony N. Hollenberg","Karim R. Lakhani"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","A"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00676","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-669f413eca37e694","title":"Centralized School choice with unequal outside options","abstract":"We study how market design choices exacerbate or mitigate pre-existing inequalities among participants. We introduce outside options in a well-known school choice model, and show that students always prefer manipulable over strategy-proof mechanisms if and only if they have an outside option. We test for the proposed relationship between outside options and manipulability in a setting where we can identify students’ outside options and observe applications under two mechanisms. Consistent with theory, students with an outside option are more likely to list popular, highly-rated schools under the Boston mechanism, and this gap disappears after switching to a Deferred Acceptance mechanism.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Mohammad Akbarpour","Adam Kapor","Christopher Neilson","Winnie van Dijk","Seth Zimmerman"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104644","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-66bac55eac333e87","title":"Accommodating stake effects under prospect theory","abstract":"One of the stylized facts underlying prospect theory is a fourfold pattern of risk preferences. People have been shown to be risk seeking for small probability gains and large probability losses, while being risk averse for large probability gains and small probability losses. Another fourfold pattern of risk preferences over outcomes, postulated by Harry Markowitz in 1952, has received much less attention and is currently not integrated into prospect theory. In two experiments, we show that risk preferences may change over outcomes. While we find people to be risk seeking for small outcomes, this turns to risk neutrality and later risk aversion as stakes increase. We then show how a one-parameter logarithmic utility function fits such stake effects significantly better under prospect theory than the power or exponential functions mostly used when fitting prospect theory models. We further investigate the extent to which the use of ill-suited functional forms to represent utility may result in violations of prospect theory, and whether such violations disappear when using logarithmic utility.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Ranoua Bouchouicha","Ferdinand M. Vieider"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9266-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-66bf0705fdbda40c","title":"Teacher Quality and Learning Outcomes in Kindergarten","abstract":"We assigned two cohorts of kindergarten students, totaling more than 24,000 children, to teachers within schools with a rule that is as good as random. We collected data on children at the beginning of the school year and applied 12 tests of math, language, and executive function (EF) at the end of the year. All teachers were filmed teaching for a full day, and the videos were coded using the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (or CLASS). We find substantial classroom effects: A 1 standard deviation increase in classroom quality results in 0.11, 0.11, and 0.07 standard deviation higher test scores in language, math, and EF, respectively. Teacher behaviors, as measured by the CLASS, are associated with higher test scores. Parents recognize better teachers, but do not change their behaviors appreciably to take account of differences in teacher quality.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["María Caridad Araujo","Pedro Carneiro","Yyannú Cruz-Aguayo","Norbert Schady"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-66c5109f3623088e","title":"Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics","abstract":"This paper proposes a new explanation for the failure of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) that rationalizes both the classic UIP puzzle and the evidence that the puzzle reverses direction at longer horizons. In the model, excess currency returns arise as compensation for endogenous fluctuations in bond convenience yield differentials. Due to the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy, the impulse response of the equilibrium convenience yield is nonmonotonic, which generates the reversal of the puzzle. The calibrated model fits exchange rate dynamics very well. I also find direct evidence linking convenience yields to excess currency returns.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Rosen Valchev"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170391","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-66d14a3608a20ea4","title":"Flights to Safety","abstract":"We identify flight-to-safety (FTS) days for twenty-three countries using only stock and bond returns and a model averaging approach. FTS days comprise less than 2% of the sample and are associated with a 2.7% average bond-equity return differential and significant flows out of equity funds and into government bond and money market funds. FTS represents flights to both quality and liquidity in international equity markets, but mainly a flight to quality in the U.S. corporate bond market. Emerging markets, endowment funds, and hedge funds perform poorly during FTS, whereas hedge funds appear to vary their systematic exposures prior to an FTS.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Lieven Baele","Geert Bekaert","Koen Inghelbrecht","Min Wei"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-66d61f095fb0f880","title":"Air pollution and defensive expenditures: Evidence from particulate-filtering facemasks","abstract":"Individuals take preventive measures to avoid costly air pollution exposure. This paper provides new empirical evidence of pollution avoidance that Chinese urban residents purchase particulate-filtering facemasks to protect against ambient air pollution. The analysis is conducted with detailed and comprehensive data available on daily facemask purchases and air quality that became available only very recently. We find that this transitory air pollution avoidance behavior exhibits dynamics and nonlinearities, with significant increases of facemask purchases during extreme pollution episodes. The daily model shows that a 100-point increase in Air Quality Index (AQI) increases the consumption of all masks by 54.5 percent and anti-PM2.5 masks by 70.6 percent. The estimates from the aggregated model with flexible pollution levels are used to simulate the benefit of air quality improvement. If 10 percent of heavy pollution days (AQI ≥201) were eliminated, the total savings on facemasks alone would be approximately 187 million USD in China. This result suggests that reducing the occurrence of “airpocalypse” events represents a signifi1cant opportunity to improve social welfare. Nevertheless, our estimates are likely only a small part of the benefit of clean air because facemasks can only partially reduce the negative health effects of air pollution and the costs of other avoidance behaviors are not included.","wordCount":207,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Junjie Zhang","Quan Mu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.07.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-66f32109d44d15e4","title":"Latent advantage, complex challenges: Industrial policy and Chinese linkages in Ethiopia's leather sector","abstract":"Industrial policy is back on the African policy agenda, with a number of countries following new strategies for rapid industrialization. None have done so more eagerly than Ethiopia. The present paper draws on Justin Yifu Lin's framework of New Structural Economics to assess Ethiopia's industrial policies and engagement in the leather industry. Making use of two rounds of semi-structured interviews (2012 and 2015) with all of the foreign firms and more than a dozen local firms in the leather sector, as well as other key stakeholders, it examines seven steps the government took to build the industrial policy: Create a high-level focus on the sector; make strategic use of international development partners; attract a “lead goose” (Chinese) in the footwear sector; build government capacity to support the sector; strengthen business associations; “shock-to-shape” upgrading; improve input supply. Ultimately, while government interventions have led to improvements across several steps of the value chain, the paper identifies a number of factors that have prevented the country from fully realizing a latent comparative advantage in the leather sector.","wordCount":174,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Deborah Bräutigam","Toni Weis","Xiaoyang Tang"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.06.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-66f5f9a0d486d3a8","title":"The internal and external validity of the regression discontinuity design: A meta‐analysis of 15 within‐study comparisons","abstract":"Theory predicts that regression discontinuity (RD) provides valid causal inference at the cutoff score that determines treatment assignment. One purpose of this paper is to test RD's internal validity across 15 studies. Each of them assesses the correspondence between causal estimates from an RD study and a randomized control trial (RCT) when the estimates are made at the same cutoff point where they should not differ asymptotically. However, statistical error, imperfect design implementation, and a plethora of different possible analysis options, mean that they might nonetheless differ. We test whether they do, assuming that the bias potential is greater with RDs than RCTs. A second purpose of this paper is to investigate the external validity of RD by exploring how the size of the bias estimates varies across the 15 studies, for they differ in their settings, interventions, analyses, and implementation details. Both Bayesian and frequentist meta‐analysis methods show that the RD bias is below 0.01 standard deviations on average, indicating RD's high internal validity. When the study‐specific estimates are shrunken to capitalize on the information the other studies provide, all the RD causal estimates fall within 0.07 standard deviations of their RCT counterparts, now indicating high external validity. With unshrunken estimates, the mean RD bias is still essentially zero, but the distribution of RD bias estimates is less tight, especially with smaller samples and when parametric RD analyses are used .","wordCount":232,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Duncan Chaplin","Thomas D. Cook","Jelena Zurovac","Jared Coopersmith","Mariel M. Finucane","Lauren Vollmer","Rebecca E. Morris"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22051","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-66f7e2ade430fe68","title":"Media, inventors, and corporate innovation","abstract":"We examine the impact of Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest conservative media network in the US local TV markets, on corporate innovation following its staggered expansion across the country. We find a significant reduction in innovation output two to three years after Sinclair entry. As a larger proportion of inventors self-identify as left-leaning, we find that the effect runs through two mutually non-exclusive channels: the inventor productivity channel and the talent replacement channel. Inventors become less innovative when they stay in Sinclair-exposed firms, and firms face challenges replacing departed talent upon the local ideology shock induced by Sinclair. The post-Sinclair decline exists in related and unrelated patents, in patent originality and generality, in the economic value of patents, in breakthrough patents and not so useful patents, and in innovation efficiency.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Yuqi Gu","Mahsa Kaviani","Lily Li","Hosein Maleki","Connie X. Mao"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101664","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-66ff8d2d99b47f12","title":"Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa","abstract":"We study from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective how a network of military alliances and enmities affects the intensity of a conflict. The model combines elements from network theory and from the politico-economic theory of conflict. We obtain a closed-form characterization of the Nash equilibrium. Using the equilibrium conditions, we perform an empirical analysis using data on the Second Congo War, a conflict that involves many groups in a complex network of informal alliances and rivalries. The estimates of the fighting externalities are then used to infer the extent to which the conflict intensity can be reduced through (i) dismantling specific fighting groups involved in the conflict; (ii) weapon embargoes; (iii) interventions aimed at pacifying animosity among groups. Finally, with the aid of a random utility model, we study how policy shocks can induce a reshaping of the network structure.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Michael König","Dominic Rohner","Mathias Thoenig","Fabrizio Zilibotti"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13117","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-67178fef9640c0e8","title":"The timing of voluntary delisting","abstract":"For many firms, voluntarily delisting from a stock exchange can be optimal. We model an entrepreneur's incentives to voluntarily delist the firm as a trade-off between consumption of private benefits when listed and expected improvements in the firm's performance after delisting. Our model allows for heterogeneity across firms and countries, and various micro and macro shocks affect the delisting decision. Such a model makes novel predictions regarding the delisting patterns around the world. We empirically confirm these predictions using manually collected delisting data from 26 countries. Increasing policy and regulatory uncertainties can partially explain the greater popularity of voluntary delistings.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Alcino Azevedo","Gönül Çolak","Izidin El Kalak","Radu Tunaru"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103832","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6720aa6c7aeb0ea1","title":"Intergenerational Mobility Between and Within Canada and the United States","abstract":"Intergenerational income mobility is lower in the United States than in Canada but varies significantly within each country. Our subnational analysis finds that the national border only partially distinguishes the approximately 1,000 regions we analyze within these countries. The Canada-US border divides central and eastern Canada from the US Great Lakes and northeastern regions. Simultaneously, some Canadian regions have more in common with the low-mobility southern parts of the United States than with the rest of Canada; that these areas represent a much larger fraction of the US population also explains why mobility is lower in the United States.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Marie Connolly","Miles Corak","Catherine Haeck"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703465","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-672243db199ed086","title":"The impact of black economic empowerment on the performance of listed firms in South Africa","abstract":"Lower compliance costs and focus on key subscores can improve BEE effectiveness. Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) is a policy that aims to empower previously disadvantaged individuals and decrease racial economic inequality in South Africa. As the program puts reformation pressure on firms, it might strongly influence firm performance. This article examines how BEE affects turnover, profits, and labour productivity of firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We use an extensive dataset covering a major share of listed firms between 2004 and 2019. The analysis employs fixed-effects regressions and the system GMM approach to account for endogeneity. Subsample analyses are used to account for heterogeneity in BEE scores. Overall, we find that BEE tends to have a small positive impact on firms’ turnover, a positive but not robust impact on labour productivity, and no impact on profits. Larger JSE-listed firms drive the positive effect on turnover. We conclude that BEE had a slightly positive effect on large JSE firms in the best case but also did not harm JSE firms in the worst case. To increase the benefits of BEE, we propose that the policy should be further adapted to reduce the cost of compliance and focus on areas that enhance structural change in South African companies, like skills development.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Matthias Busse","Nina Kupzig","Tim Vogel"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67228f83e2cf77b1","title":"Folk theorems in repeated games with switching costs","abstract":"We study how switching costs affect the sub-game perfect equilibria in repeated games. We show that (i) the Folk Theorem holds whenever the players are patient enough; (ii) the set of equilibrium payoffs is obtained by considering the payoffs of a simple one-shot auxiliary game; and (iii) the switching costs have a negative impact on a player in the infinitely undiscounted repeated game but can be beneficial for him in a finitely repeated game or in a discounted game.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Yevgeny Tsodikovich","Xavier Venel","Anna Zseleva"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.05.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6723bbab6a239b44","title":"Skill requirements and labour polarisation: An association analysis based on Polish online job offers","abstract":"This paper uses the methodological scheme of contingency tables to explore polarisation in the Polish labour market. We use a large database of online job offers published on selected Polish job portals in the period 2017–2019, whereas most of the studies on the polarisation hypothesis are based on employment data. The main advantage of our microdata is the use of information on the required skills of the vacancy. The contingency table allows us to generate clusters of vacancies whose attributes tend to appear jointly. The study reveals that office skills do not offer a particular advantage in an automated labour market, while information and computer technology skills and communication skills seem to have a shield effect in such an environment. In addition, a cluster of transversal skills –self-organisational, technical and interpersonal skills– constitutes an important requirement for most job offers. These skills should be widely developed within the educational system, at different levels.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Carlos Usabiaga","Fernando Núñez Hernández","Łukasz Arendt","Ewa Gałecka‐Burdziak","Robert Pater"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105963","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-672c777d102af47f","title":"Flexible Supply of Apprenticeship in the British Industrial Revolution","abstract":"We use annual information on apprenticeships in England between 1710–1805 to estimate the dynamic supply-responsiveness in this market in the presence of the increasingly powerful technological shocks as the Industrial Revolution proceeded apace. Using both an Instrumental Variable method and a dynamic Vector Autoregression framework (VAR) system to identify the long-run response functions, we find evidence of an elastic supply, sufficiently high as to allow quantities to rise considerably in response to demand shocks. This finding lends support to the view that Britain's apprenticeship institution was the source of its advantage in skilled mechanical labor, so critical to its economic success.","wordCount":101,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Nadav Ben Zeev","Joel Mokyr","Karine van der Beek"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000043","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-672d336421cc6fe7","title":"Early, Late or Never? When Does Parental Education Impact Child Outcomes?","abstract":"We estimate the causal effect of parents' education on their children's education and examine the timing of the impact. We identify the causal effect by exploiting the exogenous shift in (parents') education levels induced by the 1972 minimum school leaving age reform in England. Increasing parental education has a positive causal effect on children's outcomes that is evident in preschool assessments at age 4 and continues to be visible up to and including high-stakes examinations taken at age 16. Children of parents affected by the reform attain results around 0.1 standard deviations higher than those whose parents were not impacted.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Matt Dickson","Paul Gregg","Harriet L. Robinson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12356","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-67324e73409e9fe6","title":"Intergenerational mobility in education and occupation","abstract":"We build a model that, according to the empirical evidence, gives rise to oscillations in wealth within a dynasty while keeping intergenerational persistence in education attainment. We propose a mechanism based on the interaction between wealth and effort as suggested by the Carnegie conjecture, according to which wealthier individuals devote less effort in their job occupations than poorer. Oscillations in wealth arise from changes in the occupation chosen by different generations of the same dynasty as a response to both inherited wealth and college premium. Our mechanism generates a rich social stratification with several classes in the long run due to the combination of different levels of education and occupation types. Furthermore, we generate a large mobility in wealth among classes even in the long run. Our model highlights the role played by the minimum cost on education investment, the borrowing constraints, and the complementarity between education and occupational effort.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Jaime Alonso‐Carrera","Jordi Caballé","Xavier Raurich"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000226","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-6738a1ad613a7b14","title":"Gridlock and inefficient policy instruments","abstract":"Why do rational politicians choose inefficient policy instruments? Environmental regulation, for example, often takes the form of technology standards and quotas even when cost‐effective Pigou taxes are available. To shed light on this puzzle, we present a stochastic game with multiple legislative veto players and show that inefficient policy instruments are politically easier to repeal than efficient instruments. Anticipating this, heterogeneous legislators agree more readily on an inefficient policy instrument. We describe when inefficient instruments are likely to be chosen, and predict that they are used more frequently in (moderately) polarized political environments and in volatile economic environments. We show conditions under which players strictly benefit from the availability of the inefficient instrument.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["David Austen‐Smith","Wioletta Dziuda","Bård Harstad","Antoine Loeper"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3329","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-675bc48f62de690a","title":"Whom Do Employers Want? The Role of Recent Employment and Unemployment Status and Age","abstract":"We use a résumé audit study to investigate the role of employment and unemployment histories in callbacks to job applications. We find that applicants with 52 weeks of unemployment have a lower callback rate than those with shorter spells. There is no relationship, however, between spell length and callback among applicants with spells of 24 weeks or less. We also find that both younger and older applicants have a lower callback probability than prime-aged applicants. Finally, we find that applicants who are employed at the time of application have a lower callback rate than do unemployed applicants.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Henry S. Farber","Chris M. Herbst","Dan Silverman","Till von Wachter"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700184","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-676155acfd322864","title":"The Hydro-economics of Mining","abstract":"Joint research between economists and hydrologists increasingly contributes to optimising the economic value gained from water, while safeguarding its social and environmental values. The application of hydro-economic analysis to mining regions, however, is limited. This paper examines why this is the case and how to confront it. The paper focuses on identifying and describing features of large-scale mines and mine regions that are challenging to analyse such as: magnitude of capital involved, time-scale and remoteness of projects, inherent environmental risks, and strong negative perceptions about mining's impacts on water. These characteristics may limit the applicability of established hydro-economic concepts and methods, thus risk-based metrics are discussed as complementary tools. We also contend that further research and development in water-related ecosystem services should be a priority, in order to better quantify trade-offs between the economic benefits of water use by mining and competing users, including environmental flows. Case studies of mining regions in Chile, Madagascar and Sweden are summarised to illustrate some of the issues raised. While data limitations are an obstacle, new and extended case studies are required to explore how the challenges may be addressed.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Juan Ossa-Moreno","Neil McIntyre","Saleem H. Ali","James C. R. Smart","Diego Rivera","Upmanu Lall","Greg Keir"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-676401244efc07ad","title":"Euler Equations, Subjective Expectations and Income Shocks","abstract":"In this paper, we make three substantive contributions. First, we use elicited subjective income expectations to identify the levels of permanent and transitory income shocks in a lifecycle framework. Second, we use these shocks to assess whether households’ consumption is insulated from them. Third, we use the shock data to estimate an Euler equation for consumption. We find that households are able to smooth transitory shocks, but adjust their consumption in response to permanent shocks, albeit not fully. The estimates of the Euler equation parameters with and without expectational errors are similar, which is consistent with rational expectations. We break new ground by combining data on subjective expectations about future income from the Michigan Survey with microdata on actual income from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Orazio Attanasio","Agnes Kovacs","Krisztina Molnár"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12318","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6764d3579c8f3d43","title":"Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go?","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also investigate the potential secondary effects of the referendum on non-EU migrants by using different methodologies and various robustness checks. Our results show that after the referendum (i) migration inflows from the EU declined, (ii) emigration of EU migrants increased and (iii) net migration flows from EU countries to the UK fell. Our results are not driven by the potential spillover impacts on non-EU migrant workers. Overall, the findings show that migration in the UK declined after the Brexit referendum, even before any policy change.","wordCount":130,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Valentina Di Iasio","Jackline Wahba"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104484","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67754f4af8a40c13","title":"Top executives on social media and information in the capital market: Evidence from China","abstract":"Social media platforms are becoming increasingly important channels for information dissemination. This study examines how microblogging by top executives affects the information environment for listed firms in an emerging market. Using a manually collected data set of Sina Weibo, one of China's most popular and largest social media platforms, we find that a board chair having a Weibo account is associated with the dissemination of more firm-specific information to the capital market. This result holds up to a battery of robustness tests, including an alternative noise-trading explanation and alternative measures of information flows and definitions of Weibo usage. We also show that the relationship between board chairs' Weibo usage and information dissemination is stronger for smaller firms, firms that went public more recently, and firms characterized by less analyst coverage. In addition, Weibo usage primarily disseminates firm-specific news rather than industry news. Finally, we document that institutional trading is an important channel through which private information is incorporated into stock prices. Findings in this study have important implications for the understanding of the role of social media in the dissemination process of corporate information and corporate communication strategy.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Xunan Feng","Anders C. Johansson"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.04.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-677abf722f146e45","title":"Does subway expansion improve air quality?","abstract":"Major cities in China and many other fast-growing economies are expanding their subway systems in order to address worsening air pollution and traffic congestion. This paper quantifies the impact of subway expansion on air quality by leveraging fine-scale air quality data and the rapid build-out of 14 new subway lines and 252 stations in Beijing from 2008 to 2016. Our main empirical framework examines how the density of the subway network affects air quality across different locations in the city during this period. To address the potential endogenous location of subway stations, we construct an instrument based on historical subway planning, long before air pollution and traffic congestion were of concern. Our analysis shows that an increase in subway density by one standard deviation improves air quality by two percent and the result is robust to a variety of alternative specifications including the distance-based difference-in-differences method. The total discounted health benefit during a 20-year period from reduced mortality and morbidity as a result of 14 new subway lines amounts to $1.0–3.1 billion, or only 1.4–4.4 percent of the total construction and operating cost.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Shanjun Li","Yanyan Liu","Avralt-Od Purevjav","Lin Yang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.05.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67841073094fd2a3","title":"Minimum legal drinking age and the social gradient in binge drinking","abstract":"Low minimum legal drinking ages (MLDAs), as prevalent in many European countries, are severely understudied. We use rich survey and administrative data to estimate the impact of the Austrian MLDA of 16 on teenage drinking behavior and morbidity. Regression discontinuity estimates show that legal access to alcohol increases the frequency and intensity of drinking, which results in more hospital admissions due to alcohol intoxication. The effects are stronger for boys and teenagers with low socioeconomic background. Evidence suggests that the policy's impact cannot be fully explained by access. Data from an annual large-scale field study show that about 25 percent of retailers sell even hard liquor to underage customers. More generally, perceived access to alcohol is very high and hardly changes at the MLDA. However, teenagers consider binge drinking at weekends to be less harmful after gaining legal access.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Alexander Ahammer","Stefan Bauernschuster","Martin Halla","Hannah Lachenmaier"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102571","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67949944a71911f7","title":"Driving the circular economy through public environmental and energy R&D: Evidence from SMEs in the European Union","abstract":"Governments at the EU and the member state level are placing increased emphasis on public research and development (R&D) for energy and the environment to advance a circular economy (CE). To achieve CE goals, it is critical to engage SMEs as they represent the vast majority of enterprises in the EU. To date, there is a lack of evidence regarding the impact of these public R&D investments on SMEs' CE activities. We address this gap by analysing the impact of public environmental and energy R&D on CE implementation and investment by SMEs. The study draws from a multi-level database of 10,618 SMEs across 28 EU member states for the period 2013–2015 from the Flash Eurobarometer 441 survey and country-level data from other EU sources. Employing a mixed-level probit regression, we find that the knowledge generated by public environmental and energy R&D, defined as country-level investments in this activity from 2004 to 2015, positively affects SMEs' implementation of CE activities. Additionally, the study finds that public environmental and energy R&D affects the level of SMEs' investment in CE activities negatively, suggesting that more public R&D can substitute for the financial efforts that SMEs have to take when implementing CE activities.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Pablo Garrido Prada","Helena Lenihan","Justin Doran","Christian Rammer","Mauricio Perez-Alaniz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106884","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-679affe8318b0f7d","title":"College on the Cheap: Consequences of Community College Tuition Reductions","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of community college tuition on college enrollment. I exploit quasi-experimental variation from discounts for community college tuition in Texas that were expanded over time and across geography for identification. Community college enrollment in the first year after high school increased by 5.1 percentage points for each $1,000 decrease in tuition, which implies an elasticity of —0.29. Lower tuition also increased transfer from community colleges to universities. Marginal community college enrollees induced to attend by reduced tuition have similar graduation rates as average community college enrollees.","wordCount":90,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Jeffrey T. Denning"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150374","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-67a22a8f7a2c829a","title":"Mergers with future rivals can boost prices, bar entry, and intensify market concentration","abstract":"Merger effects spill over to the immediate rivals but not distant rivals. It is theoretically shown that mergers between incumbents and future rivals can boost prices and harm consumers. But in the absence of empirical evidence, no merger has been litigated on this basis. To offer empirical insights, I study the acquisition case of a promising future rival by a large incumbent pharmaceutical firm. First, there is strong and causal evidence that the merger has enabled higher prices for the incumbent. Mergers with future rivals are practically unregulated and, if wisely exploited, they can circumvent antitrust enforcement and serve as entry barriers. Second, in contrast to the mainstream prediction that mergers with future rivals do not alter market concentration, I report a large post-merger increase in the market concentration. I introduce advertisement expenditure as a possible channel of effect between the merger and market concentration. Third, I document spillover effect of the merger on the incumbent's immediate rivals without affecting its distant rivals.","wordCount":163,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Maysam Rabbani"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102934","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-67a302a26bd670c4","title":"Storms and Jobs: The Effect of Hurricanes on Individuals’ Employment and Earnings over the Long Term","abstract":"Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the US Gulf Coast in 2005. We use job-level data to compare the evolution of earnings for affected workers in four states with workers from matched control counties. We attribute short-term earnings losses to job separations and long-term gains to wage growth in the affected areas. Wages rose due to reduced labor supply and increased labor demand in the affected labor markets. Damage to a worker’s residence or workplace accentuated short-term earnings losses. Effects varied by prestorm industry, with larger gains for workers in sectors related to rebuilding.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jeffrey A. Groen","Mark Kutzbach","Anne E. Polivka"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706055","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-67a3308858df24dc","title":"The Effects of Two Influential Early Childhood Interventions on Health and Healthy Behaviour","abstract":"This paper examines the long-term impacts on health and healthy behaviors of two of the oldest and most widely cited U.S. early childhood interventions evaluated by the method of randomization with long-term follow-up: the Perry Preschool Project (PPP) and the Carolina Abecedarian Project (ABC). There are pronounced gender effects strongly favoring boys, although there are also effects for girls. Dynamic mediation analyses show a significant role played by improved childhood traits, above and beyond the effects of experimentally enhanced adult socioeconomic status. These results show the potential of early life interventions for promoting health.","wordCount":94,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Gabriella Conti","James J. Heckman","Rodrigo Pinto"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12420","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-67a7313c2f51d016","title":"One Mandarin Benefits the Whole Clan: Hometown Favoritism in an Authoritarian Regime","abstract":"We study patronage politics in authoritarian Vietnam, using an exhaustive panel of ranking officials from 2000 to 2010 to estimate their promotions' impact on infrastructure in their hometowns of patrilineal ancestry. Native officials' promotions lead to a broad range of hometown infrastructure improvement. Hometown favoritism is pervasive across all ranks, even among officials without budget authority, except among elected legislators. Favors are narrowly targeted toward small communes that have no political power, and are strengthened with bad local governance and strong local family values. The evidence suggests a likely motive of social preferences for hometown.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Quoc-Anh Do","Kieu-Trang Nguyen","Ngoc Anh Tran"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20130472","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-67ac319bb29590d8","title":"Decentralized Versus Centralized Competitive Pricing When Size Matters","abstract":"In several markets, retailers consider volume (size) as a crucial factor for competitiveness; this is driven, for example, by volume rebates from suppliers or technological economies of scale. This indicates that the retailers face decreasing marginal costs. We show that such economies of scale may imply that prices become strategic substitutes and that this has profound effects on firms’ behavior. A retail chain that controls several stores in the same market may prefer decentralized pricing rather than centralized pricing. This preference arises because a multi-store chain that employs centralized pricing essentially commits to setting higher prices than it otherwise would. If prices are strategic substitutes, the rivals of a multi-store chain would then, to the detriment of the chain stores, respond by reducing their prices. If this effect is sufficiently strong, centralized pricing will be unprofitable for a multi-store chain.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Malin Arve","Øystein Foros","Hans Jarle Kind"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10030-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67ba42ecd4388eb6","title":"Your spouse is fired! How much do you care?","abstract":"This study is the first to provide a causal estimate of the cross-spouse subjective well-being consequences of unemployment. Using German panel data on married and cohabiting partners for 1991–2015 and information on exogenous unemployment entry due to workplace closure, we show that one spouse’s unemployment experience reduces the life satisfaction of the other partner. The estimated spillover is at least one quarter of the effect of own unemployment and is equally pronounced among female and male partners. In addition, while wives’ life satisfaction does not recover even two years after their partners becoming unemployed, husbands only react to their wives’ joblessness during the first year of unemployment. Our results are insensitive to income controls and the couple’s position in the income distribution, thus reflecting the non-pecuniary costs of unemployment. Although the income loss hardly explains the negative spillover effects of unemployment on spousal life satisfaction, we document large declines in spousal satisfaction with household income and living standards. This finding supports the argument that the costs of unemployment borne by indirectly affected spouses extend beyond the loss of consumption opportunities and might be rather related to social values attached to market work. Being robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, our findings imply that public policy programs aimed at mitigating unemployment’s negative consequences need to target not only those directly affected but also cohabiting spouses.","wordCount":225,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Milena Nikolova","Sinem H. Ayhan"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0693-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67cb2337104050c1","title":"A reassessment of the potential for loss-framed incentive contracts to increase productivity: a meta-analysis and a real-effort experiment","abstract":"Substantial productivity increases have been reported when incentives are framed as losses rather than gains. Loss-framed contracts have also been reported to be preferred by workers. The results from our meta-analysis and real-effort experiment challenge these claims. The meta-analysis’ summary effect size of loss framing is a 0.16 SD increase in productivity. Whereas the summary effect size in laboratory experiments is a 0.33 SD, the summary effect size from field experiments is 0.02 SD. We detect evidence of publication biases among laboratory experiments. In a new laboratory experiment that addresses prior design weaknesses, we estimate an effect size of 0.12 SD. This result, in combination with the meta-analysis, suggests that the difference between the effect size estimates in laboratory and field experiments does not stem from the limited external validity of laboratory experiments, but may instead stem from a mix of underpowered laboratory designs and publication biases. Moreover, in our experiment, most workers preferred the gain-framed contract and the increase in average productivity is only detectable in the subgroup of workers (~ 20%) who preferred the loss-framed contracts. Based on the results from our experiment and meta-analysis, we believe that behavioral scientists should better assess preferences for loss-framed contracts and the magnitude of their effects on productivity before advocating for greater use of such contracts among private and public sector actors.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Paul J. Ferraro","J. Dustin Tracy"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-022-09754-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67ccec16a528a6d7","title":"Measuring women's empowerment in agriculture, food production, and child and maternal dietary diversity in Timor-Leste","abstract":"Women’s empowerment is essential to improve nutrition in low and middle-income countries. We investigated the empowerment of women in agriculture in association with household production and the dietary diversity of children 12–59 months old and their mothers in Timor-Leste. Using the Abbreviated Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (A-WEAI) we analyzed 156 dual-adult rural households applying multivariable regression models. We found that the dietary diversity scores of empowered women and their children were higher than among those disempowered. The associations between different measures of empowerment and dietary diversity were larger and more significant among women than children. Food production diversity was consistently associated with children’s improved diets. We found small gender gaps in decisions on production, access to resources, and control over income, similar to findings in other Southeast Asian countries. Nutrition-sensitive policies and programmes in Timor-Leste could gain from prioritizing women’s empowerment and promoting agriculture diversification strategies as valuable investments to improve the diets and wellbeing of mothers and children.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Gianna Bonis‐Profumo","Natasha Stacey","Julie Brimblecombe"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102102","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-67d03d6e56c0eeaf","title":"Does the current trade liberalization agenda contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation in agriculture?","abstract":"This paper contributes to the literature on the trade liberalization – climate change nexus by investigating the impact of the current free trade agenda of the European Union (EU) on the effectiveness of a possible greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy for its agricultural sector. For the analysis we implement scenarios with a carbon tax on non-CO2 emissions and trade liberalization both individually and combined in CAPRI, a global partial equilibrium model for agriculture. Scenario results indicate that the simulated trade liberalization by itself has only modest effects on agricultural GHG emissions by 2030. Pricing agricultural non-CO2 emissions in the EU triggers the adoption of mitigation technologies, which contributes to emission reductions. Emission leakage, however, partially offsets the EU emission\\nsavings as production increases in less emission-efficient regions in the world. The combination of agricultural trade liberalization and carbon pricing increases emission leakage and, therefore, further undermines global mitigation gains. Our results hinge on the key assumptions that future trade agreements between non-EU countries are not considered and that the climate actions are limited to the EU only. Despite these limitations we conclude that, from a global GHG mitigation perspective, trade agreements should address emission leakage, for instance by being conditional on participating nations adopting measures directed towards GHG mitigation.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Mihaly Himics","Thomas Fellmann","Jesús Barreiro‐Hurlé","Peter Witzke","Ignácio Pérez Domínguez","Torbjörn Jansson","Franz Weiß"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.01.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-67d1fca671adf9b3","title":"The power of green defaults: the impact of regional variation of opt-out tariffs on green energy demand in Germany","abstract":"The present paper focuses on green defaults as demand-side policies supporting the uptake of renewable energy in Germany. It sets out to gain a better understanding of whether and for whom green electricity defaults work. The present study is one of the first to use a large-scale data set to investigate this question. We combine micro-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) covering private households (including a wealth of individual information) with macro-level information such as population density of a region and proportion of energy suppliers in a given region that use a green opt-out tariff within their basic supply. We show that in Germany, green defaults, automatically enrolling customers in renewable energy sources, tend to stick, especially but not only among those who are concerned about the problem of climate change. This finding, based on real-world rather than experimental evidence, attests to the power of automatic enrollment in addressing environmental problems in Germany and potentially beyond, including climate change, and also adds to the growing literature on the substantial effects of shifting from opt-in to opt-out strategies.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Micha Kaiser","Manuela Bernauer","Cass R. Sunstein","Lucia A. Reisch"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106685","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-67d5add9463b893f","title":"The Economic Payoff of Name Americanization","abstract":"We provide the first evidence of the magnitude and consequences of the Americanization of migrants’ names in the early twentieth century. We construct a longitudinal data set of naturalization records, tracking migrants and their naming choices over time. We consistently find that migrants who Americanized their names experienced larger occupational upgrading than those who did not. Name Americanization embodies an intention to assimilate among low-skilled migrants and reveals the existence of preferences for American names within the labor market. We conclude that the trade-off between individual identity and labor market success was present then as it is today.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Costanza Biavaschi","Corrado Giulietti","Zahra Siddique"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692531","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-67e62aaf4f8694bf","title":"Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence From Notches and Stimulus in the U.K.","abstract":"We investigate housing market responses to transaction taxes using administrative data on all property transactions in the U.K. from 2004 to 2012 combined with quasi-experimental variation from tax notches and tax stimulus. We present two main findings. First, transaction taxes are highly distortionary across a range of margins, causing large distortions to the price, volume, and timing of property transactions. Secondly, temporary transaction tax cuts are an enormously effective form of fiscal stimulus. A temporary elimination of a 1% transaction tax increased housing market activity by 20% in the short run (due to both timing and extensive responses) and less than half of the stimulus effect was reversed after the tax was reintroduced (due to re-timing). Because of the complementarities between moving house and consumer spending, these stimulus effects translate into extra spending per dollar of tax cut equal to about 1. We interpret our empirical findings in the context of a housing model with downpayment constraints in which leverage amplifies the effects of transaction taxes.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Michael Best","Henrik Kleven"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-67e80d6e12fca8d7","title":"Benefits of Empire? Capital Market Integration North and South of the Alps, 1350–1800","abstract":"This article addresses two questions. First, when and to what extent did capital markets integrate north and south of the Alps? Second, how mobile was capital? Analysing a unique new dataset on pre-modern urban annuities, we find that northern markets were consistently better integrated than Italian markets. Long-term integration was driven by initially peripheral places in the Netherlands and Upper Germany integrating with the rest of the Holy Roman Empire where the distance and volume of inter-urban investments grew primarily in the sixteenth century. The institutions of the Empire contributed to stronger market integration north of the Alps.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["David Chilosi","Max‐Stephan Schulze","Oliver Volckart"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000487","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-67ef99d1c7ebe7b3","title":"The economic effects of Facebook","abstract":"Social media permeates many aspects of our lives, including how we connect with others, where we get our news and how we spend our time. Yet, we know little about the economic effects for users. In 2017, we ran a large field experiment with over 1765 individuals to document the value of Facebook to users and its causal effect on news, well-being and daily activities. Participants reveal how much they value one week of Facebook usage and are then randomly assigned to a validated Facebook restriction or normal use. One week of Facebook is worth $67. Those who are off Facebook for one week reduce news consumption, are less likely to recognize politically-skewed news stories, report being less depressed and engage in healthier activities. These results are strongest for men. Our results further suggest that, after the restriction, Facebook’s value increases, consistent with information loss or that using Facebook may be addictive.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Roberto Mosquera","Mofioluwasademi Odunowo","Trent McNamara","Xiongfei Guo","Ragan Petrie"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09625-y","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-681ffdbbada75e96","title":"Experimental Research on Retirement Decision-Making: Evidence from Replications","abstract":"We adapt the design of four experimental studies on retirement decision-making and conduct replications with a larger online sample from the broader population. We replicate most of the main effects of the original studies. In particular, we confirm that consumption decisions are less efficient when subjects need to borrow from the future than when they need to save from the present. When subjects collect retirement benefits as lump sum instead of annuities, they choose to retire later, as suggested by the original study. We also confirm that savings are higher when they are incentivized with matching contributions than when incentivized with tax rebates. However, when faced with varying survival risks, subjects in our replication make only partial adjustments to spending paths when ambiguity is reduced. We also propose a further experimental research agenda in related topics and discuss practical issues on subject recruitment, attrition, and redesign of complex tasks.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Kremena Bachmann","Andre Lot","Xiaogeng Xu","Thorsten Hens"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106851","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6827e8e88fecce7a","title":"The colonial legacy of education: Evidence from Tunisia","abstract":"This paper uses spatial variations in the enrolment rate of Tunisian pupils in 1931 to estimate the weight of colonial history on medium- and long-run educational attainment. We assemble a new dataset on the location of public primary schools and the number of pupils and teachers, together with population data for 1931. We match these data with information on education at the district level, derived from two population censuses conducted in 1984 and 2014. We find that a one per cent increase in the enrolment rate in 1931 is associated with a 2.37 percentage points increase in the literacy rate in 1984, and a 1.89 percentage points increase in 2014. We further investigate the exposure to colonial public primary education across different age cohorts. We find that our results are mainly driven by older generations, and tend to fade for younger cohorts. While we provide qualitative evidence that a cultural transmission of education may have contributed to this persistence, we also argue that the continuous effort and investment made by Tunisian governments to achieve universal primary enrolment best explain the decline in spatial disparities in educational attainment.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Mhamed Ben Salah","Cédric Chambru","Maleke Fourati"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.09.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-684e45c21af2e354","title":"Fertility and parental retirement","abstract":"I study how reduced retirement opportunities in one generation affect fertility in the subsequent generation. I use administrative Dutch data and exploit the 2006 Dutch pension reform, which induced individuals born from January 1, 1950 onward to delay retirement while exempting those born earlier. I find that this reform reduced fertility among women with affected mothers. The reduction is economically significant and persists after the impact on retirement fades out. I supplement my analysis with survey evidence and argue that the fertility reduction can be explained by reduced grandparental child care supply.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Julius Ilciukas"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104928","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6856ff93a449add9","title":"Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?","abstract":"This paper empirically studies the U.S. multiplier effects of government investment, government consumption and total government purchases on output. We explore dependencies of the multipliers on states of the economy, measured in different ways. Using local projections with instrumental variables, we find that a model without state-dependencies and using total government spending (instead of its components) provides the best fit to post-WWII data. These results are robust to various alternative specifications. We account for the COVID-19 period with a pandemic stringency index and for monetary policy shocks with a shadow interest rate. The government spending multiplier is approximately 0.5.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Alfred A. Haug","Anna Sznajderska"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103584","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-685a393228e81ae9","title":"Crowd-sourced Chinese genealogies as data for demographic and economic history","abstract":"This paper evaluates the usefulness of crowd-sourced Chinese genealogical data for quantitative research in demography and economic history. I first examine whether genealogies—despite well-known selection biases—produce demographic patterns consistent with established historical knowledge of China. Comparisons with existing studies show that aggregate population-growth trends and sex ratios over time align reasonably well with established demographic and historical findings, suggesting that genealogies, though selective, capture coherent and interpretable patterns. Building on these plausibility checks, the paper argues that the main value of genealogical data lies in their scalability and temporal depth, particularly as crowd-sourced digitization vastly expands the number of available records. These features make genealogies well suited to analyses that leverage variation across regions and over time, an approach that is central in modern economic history.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Melanie Meng Xue"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","P","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101734","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-685c14cc93b5df5f","title":"Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy","abstract":"Collateral constraints widely used in models of financial crises feature a pecuniary externality: Agents do not internalize how borrowing decisions made in “good times” affect collateral prices during a crisis. We show that under commitment the optimal financial regulator’s plans are time inconsistent and study time-consistent policy. Quantitatively, this policy reduces sharply the frequency and magnitude of crises, removes fat tails from the distribution of asset returns, and increases social welfare. In contrast, constant debt taxes are ineffective and can be welfare reducing, while an optimized “macroprudential Taylor rule” is effective but less so than the optimal time-consistent policy.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Javier Bianchi","Enrique G. Mendoza"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696280","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-685d21a2ecd7f011","title":"Using Facebook ad data to track the global digital gender gap","abstract":"Gender equality in access to the internet and mobile phones has become increasingly recognised as a development goal. Monitoring progress towards this goal however is challenging due to the limited availability of gender-disaggregated data, particularly in low-income countries. In this data sparse context, we examine the potential of a source of digital trace ‘big data’ – Facebook’s advertisement audience estimates – that provides aggregate data on Facebook users by demographic characteristics covering the platform’s over 2 billion users to measure and ‘nowcast’ digital gender gaps. We generate a unique country-level dataset combining ‘online’ indicators of Facebook users by gender, age and device type, ‘offline’ indicators related to a country’s overall development and gender gaps, and official data on gender gaps in internet and mobile access where available. Using this dataset, we predict internet and mobile phone gender gaps from official data using online indicators, as well as online and offline indicators. We find that the online Facebook gender gap indicators are highly correlated with official statistics on internet and mobile phone gender gaps. For internet gender gaps, models using Facebook data do better than those using offline indicators alone. Models combining online and offline variables however have the highest predictive power. Our approach demonstrates the feasibility of using Facebook data for real-time tracking of digital gender gaps. It enables us to improve geographical coverage for an important development indicator, with the biggest gains made for low-income countries for which existing data are most limited.","wordCount":244,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Masoomali Fatehkia","Ridhi Kashyap","Ingmar Weber"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.03.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6861e7be95185a89","title":"One thing leads to another: Evidence on the scope and persistence of behavioral spillovers","abstract":"Evaluations of economic interventions usually focus on one target behavior. This study extends the evaluation scope to multiple untargeted behaviors. We evaluate a hot water saving intervention in a natural field experiment. Despite an exclusive focus on hot water, the intervention changes multiple behaviors. Notably, we find a 5.6 percent reduction in room heating energy consumption that persists one year after the intervention. We show that the room heating spillover has important welfare implications.","wordCount":74,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Alexander Goetz","Harald Mayr","Renate Schubert"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105166","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6869e3e806b3e109","title":"Social and financial incentives for overcoming a collective action problem","abstract":"Addressing public health externalities often requires community-level collective action. Due to social norms, each person's sanitation investment decisions may depend on the decisions of neighbors. We report on a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted with 19,000 households in rural Bangladesh where we grouped neighboring households and introduced (either financial or social recognition) rewards with a joint liability component for the group, or asked each group member to make a private or public pledge to maintain a hygienic latrine. The group financial reward has the strongest impact in the short term (3 months), inducing a 7.5-12.5 percentage point increase in hygienic latrine ownership, but this effect dissipates in the medium term (15 months). In contrast, the public commitment induced a 4.2-6.3 percentage point increase in hygienic latrine ownership in the short term, but this effect persists in the medium term. Non-financial social recognition or a private pledge has no detectable effect on sanitation investments.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["M. Mehrab Bakhtiar","Raymond Guiteras","James Levinsohn","Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103072","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-68716a0e4991529d","title":"Cognitive sophistication and deliberation times","abstract":"Differences in cognitive sophistication and effort are at the root of behavioral heterogeneity in economics. To explain this heterogeneity, behavioral models assume that certain choices indicate higher cognitive effort. A fundamental problem with this approach is that observing a choice does not reveal how the choice is made, and hence choice data is insufficient to establish the link between cognitive effort and behavior. We show that deliberation times provide an individually-measurable correlate of cognitive effort. We test a model of heterogeneous cognitive depth, incorporating stylized facts from the psychophysical literature, which makes predictions on the relation between choices, cognitive effort, incentives, and deliberation times. We confirm the predicted relations experimentally in different kinds of games.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Carlos Alós‐Ferrer","Johannes Buckenmaier"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09672-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-687b4f0c56490ca6","title":"Discounting from a distance: The effect of pronoun drop on intertemporal decisions","abstract":"Intertemporal decisions—trade-offs between immediate and delayed rewards—are ubiquitous in daily life, and the ability to resist the emotional temptation to choose immediate gratification predicts long-term economic outcomes. Based on existing research on self-distancing—a psychological technique that cues people to assess their experiences from afar and has been shown to facilitate emotion regulation—we propose a novel, unobtrusive linguistic self-distancing strategy through a subtle pronoun drop and examine its impact on intertemporal decisions. In a delay-discounting task, participants made a series of intertemporal choices between smaller-sooner and larger-delayed rewards. We conveyed the monetary rewards using the first-person pronoun “I” in the self-immersed “I” condition, whereas the pronoun was dropped in the self-distanced “No Pronoun” condition. The results show that the subtle pronoun drop in the description of the monetary rewards reduced participants’ tendency to discount future rewards, leading to more patient choices. Alternative explanations, implications, and future directions are also discussed.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Josie I Chen","Tai‐Sen He"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102454","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6883cf4b692436b4","title":"On the cleansing effect of recessions and government policy: Evidence from Covid-19","abstract":"Recessions can have a cleansing effect by encouraging the reallocation of resources from low-productivity firms towards higher-productivity ones. Whether this effect actually occurs is still debated. We contribute to answering this question by providing new evidence. Using a survey of firms matched with administrative data, we trace out the Covid-19 recession’s effects across the productivity distribution. Higher-productivity firms are found to have been more successful at maintaining employment, but there was not a rise in exit amongst lower-productivity firms. In line with the theory that support policies offset the cleansing effect of recessions, high-productivity firms are also found to have been less likely to take up government support.","wordCount":108,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Nicholas Kozeniauskas","Pedro Moreira","Cezar Santos"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104097","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-689252915ffe7a35","title":"The Role of Caseworkers in Unemployment Insurance: Evidence from Unplanned Absences","abstract":"Caseworkers are the main human resources used to provide social services. This paper asks whether and how much caseworkers matter for the outcomes of unemployed individuals. Using large-scale administrative data, I exploit exogenous variation in unplanned absences among Swiss unemployment insurance caseworkers. I find that individuals who lose a meeting with their caseworker stay unemployed 5% longer. Results show large heterogeneity in the personal impact of caseworkers: the effect of a forgone meeting is zero for caseworkers in the lower half of the productivity distribution but is more than twice the average effect for caseworkers in the upper half.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Amelie Schiprowski"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706092","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6892b32125751f8a","title":"A 2050 perspective on the role for carbon capture and storage in the European power system and industry sector","abstract":"Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) might be a central technology to reach the decarbonisation goals of the European energy system. However, CCS deployment faces multiple economic, technological, and infrastructure challenges. Related literature tends to only focus on certain aspects of the CCS technology or to be limited to a particular sector perspective. In contrast, this paper presents a holistic modelling framework to analyse the long-term perspectives of CCS in Europe by extending the typical analysis from the electricity sector to the industry sector, and by including the CO2 infrastructure level with CO2 pipelines and storage. To this end, we use state-of-the-art models of the electricity sector (generation investment and electricity grid models), the industry sector, as well as the CO2 infrastructure sector. This unique modelling framework analyses the feasibility and costs of CCS deployment in the European Union towards 2050 in three scenarios with the same ambitious climate policy target (~85% CO2 emissions reduction). The main insights on the deployment of CCS in Europe hinges on two factors: i) the development of low-cost power generation technologies with carbon capture (coal and/or gas-fired), and ii) a sufficiently high CO2 price to compensate for the costs of deploying the CO2 transport infrastructure. Once CO2 transport infrastructure is available, CCS will be a preferred mitigation option for the industry sector emissions. The joint use of CO2 infrastructure by the electricity and the industry sector allows for economies of scale and economies of density. In the long term, CCS cannot achieve the 100% decarbonisation target of the energy sector because the technology can only capture 80–90% of the CO2 emissions of thermal power plants. Moreover, the advantages of CCS in terms of energy system costs compared to a system without CCS is rather small, in the range of 2%. It crucially depends on the costs of renewables and the costs of their integration in the electricity grid.","wordCount":313,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Franziska Holz","Tim Scherwath","Pedro Crespo del Granado","Christian Skar","Luis Olmos","Quentin Ploussard","Andrés Ramos","Andrea Herbst"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105631","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6898c6a5dfa755bc","title":"Pension reform and wealth inequality: Theory and evidence","abstract":"A growing literature explores reasons for rising wealth inequality, but is mostly silent on the role of pension systems despite their well-understood influence on life-cycle savings. This paper develops a simple life-cycle model to lay bare the primary theoretical mechanisms connecting pension systems, asset accumulation, and the wealth distribution. Mandated fully-funded plans transform individuals with lower incomes, often characterized as low savers, into asset owners, and may also imply a more equal wealth distribution than pay-as-you-go-based systems. To test the empirical validity of these predictions, the paper explores a pension reform in Denmark, a country that witnessed declining wealth inequality over the last decades. In a calibrated life-cycle model employing unique register data, the Danish pension reform emerges as a key factor explaining the downward trend in wealth inequality.","wordCount":129,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Torben M. Andersen","Joydeep Bhattacharya","Anna Grodecka‐Messi","Katja Mann"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104746","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-689f5da1a7a53c38","title":"Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil","abstract":"We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit high-dimensional worker and firm fixed-effects models to understand the sources of this decrease. Firm effects account for 40 percent of the total decrease and worker effects for 29 percent. Changes in observable worker and firm characteristics contributed little to these trends. Instead, the decrease is primarily due to a compression of returns to these characteristics, particularly a declining firm productivity-pay premium. Our results shed light on potential drivers of earnings inequality dynamics.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Jorge Álvarez","Felipe Benguria","Niklas Engbom","Christian Moser"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150355","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-68aed6332fdc9c7a","title":"Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change","abstract":"In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process’ volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand.","wordCount":214,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Svetlana Borovkova","Maren Diane Schmeck"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.01.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-68b503b3cbfd72df","title":"Budget deficits and money creation: Exploring their relation before Bretton Woods","abstract":"The sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has rekindled the use of the North–South (core-periphery) terminology to refer to the heterogeneity of countries belonging to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In the gold standard literature, this geographical partition had already been employed to oppose the fiscal profligacy and subsequent problems of convertibility of southern countries against the fiscal probity and long convertibility records of their northern counterparts. We provide statistical evidence that the group of countries that, with available data for 1870–1938, exhibited convertibility problems during the classical gold standard, for this reason called the pre-WWI “sometimes-floaters”, shared a pattern of fiscal dominance. This finding for the sometimes-floaters (southern European and South American countries plus Japan) differs from the non-fiscal dominance pattern that we obtain for the pre-WWI “never-floaters” (northern Europe and North America countries) when the Great War and its aftermath years are omitted. We also show that the presence of fiscal dominance was partly due to the lower levels of tax efficiency and political stability in the South.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Marcela Sabaté Sort","Carmen Fillat","Regina Escario"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2018.12.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-68c63b414509f543","title":"Is Fraud Contagious? Coworker Influence on Misconduct by Financial Advisors","abstract":"Using a novel data set of U.S. financial advisors that includes individuals' employment histories and misconduct records, we show that coworkers influence an individual's propensity to commit financial misconduct. We identify coworkers' effect on misconduct using changes in coworkers caused by mergers of financial advisory firms. The tests include merger‐firm fixed effects to exploit the variation in changes to coworkers across branches of the same firm. The probability of an advisor committing misconduct increases if his new coworkers, encountered in the merger, have a history of misconduct. This effect is stronger between demographically similar coworkers.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Stephen G. Dimmock","William Christopher Gerken","Nathaniel Graham"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12613","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-68c85a7bcc8fbc6b","title":"Can bribery buy health? Evidence from post-communist countries","abstract":"Corruption is pervasive, but we know little about its effects on individual lives. Using individual-level data from 28 post-communist countries, we demonstrate that bribing for public services worsens self-assessed health. We account for endogeneity of bribery and show that bribing for any type of public service, not just for health services, has an adverse impact. We also find that bribery lowers the quality of services received. Moreover, there are potentially high indirect costs of bribery since, as we show, it comes at the expense of cutting food consumption. These findings suggest that corruption is a potentially important source behind the poor health outcomes in many developing countries.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Astghik Mavisakalyan","Vladimir Otrachshenko","Olga Popova"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.04.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-68e1dc4f6b6a3f64","title":"Climate concern and policy acceptance before and after COVID-19","abstract":"It remains unclear how COVID-19 has affected public engagement with the climate crisis. According to the finite-pool-of-worry hypothesis, concern about climate change should have decreased after the pandemic, in turn reducing climate-policy acceptance. Here we test these and several other conjectures by using survey data from 1172 Spanish participants who responded before and after the first wave of COVID-19, allowing for both aggregate and within-person analyses. We find that on average climate concern has decreased, while acceptance of most climate policies has increased. At the individual-level, adverse health experiences are unrelated to these changes. The same holds for negative economic experiences, with the exception that unemployment is associated with reduced acceptance of some policies. Complementary to the finite-pool-of-worry test, we examine three additional pandemic-related issues. As we find, (1) higher climate concern and policy acceptance are associated with a belief that climate change contributed to the COVID-19 outbreak; (2) higher policy acceptance is associated with a positive opinion about how the government addressed the COVID-19 crisis; (3) citizens show favorable attitudes to a carbon tax with revenues used to compensate COVID-19-related expenditures. Overall, we conclude there is support for addressing the global climate crisis even during a global health crisis.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Stefan Drews","Ivan Savin","Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh","Sergio Villamayor‐Tomás"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107507","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-68e6f1bb1538a799","title":"Physician agency, consumerism, and the consumption of lower-limb MRI scans","abstract":"We study where privately insured individuals receive planned MRI scans. Despite significant out-of-pocket costs for this undifferentiated service, privately insured patients often receive care in high-priced locations when lower priced options were available. The median patient in our data has 16 MRI providers within a 30-minute drive of her home. On average, patients bypass 6 lower-priced providers between their homes and their actual treatment locations. Referring physicians heavily influence where patients receive care. The share of the variance in the prices of patients' MRI scans that referrer fixed effects (52 percent) explain is dramatically greater than the share explained by patient cost-sharing (< 1 percent), patient characteristics (< 1 percent), or patients' home HRR fixed effects (2 percent). In order to access lower cost providers, patients must generally diverge from physicians' established referral patterns.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Michael E. Chernew","Zack Cooper","Eugene Larsen Hallock","Fiona Scott Morton"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102427","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-68eae03e2d042cff","title":"Silence is safest: Information disclosure when the audience’s preferences are uncertain","abstract":"We examine voluntary disclosure decisions when firms are uncertain about audience preferences and are risk averse. In contrast to classic “unraveling” results, some firms remain silent in equilibrium. Silence is safer than disclosure; silence reduces the sensitivity of a firm’s payoff to audience preferences. Increases in firm (audience) risk-aversion reduce (increase) disclosure. Our model explains why some firms do not disclose earnings breakdowns, executive compensation, or Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance when they face diverse audiences, and why they disclose less under regulatory rules mandating that disclosure be entirely public.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Philip L. Bond","Yao Zeng"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.08.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-68ed4cdbfabb7e35","title":"Do stronger intellectual property rights protections raise productivity within the context of trade liberalization? Evidence from China","abstract":"Total factor productivity (TFP) is essential for the firm, and research shows it is affected by many factors, such as institutional quality. However, less attention has focused on intellectual property rights protection (IPP). Using an integrated Chinese manufacturing enterprises database from 2000 to 2007 and an instrumental variable estimator jointly with the difference-in-differences approach to account for endogeneity of the IPP variable, we explore the effects of stricter IPP on manufacturer TFP at the province-industry level. First, we find that, on average, stronger IPP raises the TFP of Chinese manufacturers within the context of trade liberalization. Second, we examine the mechanisms explaining our finding—tighter IPP can improve firm TFP by encouraging more innovational activities and the importing of capital goods with higher quality. Our main results are robust to a set of alternative specifications even when the 2008 financial crisis is considered.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Xiaotian Hu","Xiaopeng Yin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105791","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-68f87e7b324dd8e1","title":"Increasing the external validity of social preference games by reducing measurement error","abstract":"An increasing number of studies call into question the external validity of social preference games. In this paper, we show that these games have a low correlation with single pro-social behaviors in the field, but this correlation can be substantially increased by aggregating behaviors to reduce measurement error. We tracked people's daily pro-social behaviors for 14 days using a day reconstruction method; the same people played three different social preference games on seven different occasions. We show that, as more pro-social behaviors and game rounds are aggregated, the games become much better predictors of pro-sociality. This predictive power is further increased by using statistical methods designed to better account for measurement error. These findings suggest that social preference games capture important underlying dispositions of real-world pro-sociality, and they can be successfully used to predict aggregated pro-social inclinations. This has crucial implications for the external validity and applicability of economic games.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Xinghua Wang","Daniel Navarro‐Martinez"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.06.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-68faf89331df646b","title":"Subsidies, Speed and Switching? Impacts of an Internet Subsidy in Colombia","abstract":"Inequality in access to health, education, and employment opportunities is exacerbated in developing nations due to the uneven distribution of access to high-speed internet connections. In Colombia, the government enacted a policy (in 2012) to subsidize internet fees for low-income households so as to bridge the digital divide. The reductions were not granted to all plans and thus created incentives for consumers to switch between plans. We estimate a structural model of demand for internet connection plans, which we use to quantify the importance of switching behavior. We estimate the model using data on plans that are offered by all internet service providers to households in all socioeconomic (SES) groups across Colombia. Our results indicate that the subsidy caused a non-negligible fraction of low-SES households to switch internet plans - the majority of which switched to plans with lower speeds, not higher speeds. Furthermore, the more wealthy households (of the lower SES groups) were twice as likely to switch plans than were those in the lowest SES group. Our findings suggest that the effect– not only on internet adoption but also on switching behavior– should be taken into account when formulating subsidies that are designed to bridge the digital divide.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Julian Hidalgo","Michelle Sovinsky"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10014-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-68fde3f2cf3dcb93","title":"Make every dollar count: The impact of green credit regulation on corporate green investment efficiency","abstract":"This paper systematically examines the impact of green credit regulation on the efficiency of corporate green investment. The results show that green credit policy significantly decreases green investment efficiency for heavily polluting firms. This is further evidenced through the fact that these firms are more inclined to make symbolic efforts to pursue more credit resources rather than engaging in substantive green investments to drive real green transition. This negative effect is more pronounced for small, non-state-owned and non-foreign-funded firms. Our further analysis suggests that the intensity of environmental law enforcement, the level of financial development, and intellectual property protection can mitigate this negative effect of green credit policy on green investment efficiency. Our study is groundbreaking in that it makes the first attempt to calculate the future value that green investment can create, which serves the basis for analyzing the economic effects of green investment at the industry level. The findings indicate that labor-intensive industries with close ties to consumers' daily lives have a higher future value for green investment. Conversely, capital-intensive industries such as the metallurgical industry have a lower future value for green investment. These findings emphasize the need to improve green credit regulation and make genuine green investment to accelerate real green transition in emerging economies.","wordCount":209,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Jinfang Tian","Siyang Sun","Wei Cao","Di Bu","Rui Xue"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107307","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6906c9cd591580d2","title":"The effects of supporting local business: Evidence from the UK","abstract":"This paper assesses the effects of a significant place-based intervention that targeted local businesses in deprived areas in the UK. To gain identification, we use data at a fine spatial scale and a regression discontinuity design exploiting the eligibility deprivation rank rule based on a pre-determined deprivation index. We detect no overall effects on employment in treated areas but find a significant displacement of employment from nearby untreated areas, corresponding to around 10% of local employment. The results suggest that indirect displacement effects may substantially weaken the ability of local support programmes targeting the non-tradable sector to reduce economic inequality.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Elias Einiö","Henry G. Overman"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.103500","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-690fac52e5af885b","title":"Automation, stagnation, and the implications of a robot tax","abstract":"We assess the long-run growth effects of automation in the overlapping generations framework. Although automation implies constant returns to capital and, thus, an AK production side of the economy, positive long-run growth does not emerge. The reason is that automation suppresses wage income, which is the only source of investment in the overlapping generations model. Our result stands in sharp contrast to the representative agent setting with automation, where sustained long-run growth is possible even without technological progress. Our analysis therefore provides a cautionary tale that the underlying modeling structure of saving/investment decisions matters for the derived economic impact of automation. In addition, we show that a robot tax has the potential to raise per capita output and welfare at the steady state. However, it cannot induce a takeoff toward positive long-run growth.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Emanuel Gasteiger","Klaus Prettner"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000139","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-691a4f2453be587c","title":"Social Networks and Brexit: Evidence from a Trade Shock","abstract":"Regional exposure to Chinese import competition has often been linked to support for the Leave option in the 2016 UK EU membership referendum. Looking at 143 harmonised International Territorial Level 3 (ITL3) regions covering England and Wales, and using data on the density of online social ties between them, I show that regional support for leaving the EU was also associated with exposure in socially connected regions. I first delineate 18 commuting zones based on interregional flows over three Census years. For each region, I then construct a measure of own exposure to Chinese import competition and a measure of exposure in a set of social neighbours located outside its commuting zone. Exploiting variation within commuting zones, and using an instrumental variable approach, I find that the two measures have comparable positive effects on the regional share of the Leave vote. In a series of checks, I do not find evidence that the effect of social neighbours’ exposure is driven by an economic channel or a relationship between import competition and social ties. I also corroborate the regional results using survey data on vote choice. I interpret these findings as indicative of social spillovers between local labour markets: information flows from social neighbours are a likely channel behind the estimated spillover effects on voting outcomes.","wordCount":215,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Andreas Mastrosavvas"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104024","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-694e0dab5125ad23","title":"Bank ownership around the world","abstract":"This paper describes a dataset on bank ownership that covers more than 6,500 banks in 181 countries. It documents that until 2010, there was a reduction in state-ownership of banks and an increase in foreign ownership. However, the Global Financial Crisis interrupted or reversed these trends. I show that at the country level, there is no robust relationship between bank ownership and each of GDP growth and financial depth. Bank-level regressions show that state-owned banks are less profitable and have a higher share of non-performing loans than their private (domestic or foreign) counterparts. There is also evidence that state-owned banks stabilize credit in the presence of domestic shocks (more so in the presence of positive shocks). Instead, foreign banks amplify external shocks. In terms of domestic shocks, foreign banks are not significantly different from their domestic private counterparts.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Ugo Panizza"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107255","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-695fecb90fd8de0b","title":"Friends and enemies: A model of signed network formation","abstract":"I propose a simple model of signed network formation, where agents make friends to extract payoffs from weaker enemies. The model thereby accounts for the interplay between friendship and alliance on one hand and enmity and antagonism on the other. Nash equilibrium configurations are such that either everyone is friends with everyone or agents can be partitioned into different sets, where agents within the same set are friends and agents in different sets are enemies. Any strong Nash equilibrium must be such that a single agent is in an antagonistic relationship with everyone else. Furthermore, I show that Nash equilibria cannot be Pareto ranked. This paper offers a game-theoretic foundation for a large body of work on signed networks, called structural balance theory, which has been studied in sociology, social psychology, bullying, international relations, and applied physics. The paper also contributes to the literature on contests and economics of conflict.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Timo Hiller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1937","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6967b21ebcb7abbd","title":"Large deviations and stochastic stability in the small noise double limit","abstract":"We consider a model of stochastic evolution under general noisy best-response protocols, allowing the probabilities of suboptimal choices to depend on their payoff consequences. Our analysis focuses on behavior in the small noise double limit: we first take the noise level in agents' decisions to zero, and then take the population size to infinity. We show that in this double limit, escape from and transitions between equilibria can be described in terms of solutions to continuous optimal control problems. These are used in turn to characterize the asymptotics of the stationary distribution, and so to determine the stochastically stable states. We use these results to perform a complete analysis of evolution in three-strategy coordination games that satisfy the marginal bandwagon property and that have an interior equilibrium, with agents following the logit choice rule.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["William H. Sandholm","Mathias Staudigl"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1905","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-69797aa6128b5d85","title":"The Pricing Structure of Legal Services: Do Lawyers Offer What Clients Want?","abstract":"We analyze clients’ contract choices in auctions where Dutch law firms compete for standard cases such as labor disputes for individuals and collecting debts for businesses. In the auctions, lawyers can submit bids with any fee arrangement they prefer, including an hourly rate, a fixed fee, and a ‘mixed fee’: a time-capped fixed fee plus an hourly rate for any additional hours should the case take longer than expected. A game-theoretic analysis of this auction format reveals that clients should accept only fixed-fee bids in equilibrium. We estimate a simultaneous equation model that includes both the client’s and lawyers’ side. Qualitatively in line with our theoretical prediction, we find that clients strongly prefer fixed fees. Our results suggest that selecting a lawyer through an auction may benefit clients who face an incidental legal problem. More generally, our findings tentatively contradict lawyers’ often made argument that hourly rates are in a client’s best interest.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["F. Felsö","Sander Onderstal","Jo Seldeslachts"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09868-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6982191303561361","title":"The effects of negative population growth: An analysis using a semiendogenous r&d growth model","abstract":"This study investigates the rates of technological progress, total output growth, and per capita output growth when population growth is negative using a semiendogenous research and development (R&D) growth model. The analysis shows that within a finite time horizon, the employment share of the final goods sector reaches unity and that of the R&D sector reaches zero; accordingly, the rate of technological progress tends toward zero. In this case, the growth rate of per capita output asymptotically approaches a positive value.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Hiroaki Sasaki","Keisuke Hoshida"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000991","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-698cd1607c7638a8","title":"Sovereign Spreads and the Political Leaning of Nations","abstract":"Nations with a higher propensity to elect left governments tend to pay higher and more volatile sovereign spreads. We build a sovereign default model with elections between left and right policymakers. Reelection probabilities increase with government spending, with the left having a small advantage (consistent with the data). We use variation in “election efficiency” to create model economies that elect the left more (left leaning) or less frequently (right leaning) in equilibrium. The left‐leaning economy has a higher reluctance for fiscal austerity than the right‐leaning economy, chooses higher government spending, and faces higher spreads, resulting in lower welfare.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Johnny Cotoc","Alok Johri","César Sosa‐Padilla"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12767","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-69a72f2e59c9511b","title":"COVID-19 and cryptocurrency market: Evidence from quantile connectedness","abstract":"This study quantifies the spillover effects among seven cryptocurrencies to explore the spillover characteristics of seven cryptocurrencies, namely, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero, Stellar, and NEM. The connectedness networks of returns are based on standard VAR and quantile VAR spillovers. In addition, the framework focuses on intact, pre-, and post-COVID-19 crisis sub-sample periods. Our results highlight that Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple are the dominant transmitters to return spillover. The strongest interconnection is found for Bitcoin/Litecoin and Ripple/Sellar pair. Interestingly, Ethereum is the unvarying recipient in the system and is influenced by most of the cryptocurrencies. Further, NEM exhibits no connection with any of the cryptocurrency in the network acting as a potential diversifier. The quantile spillovers suggest increased intensity of connectedness at right and left tails. The sub-sample analysis confirms the low network integration across the cryptocurrencies during pre-COVID period. Finally, the post-COVID period indicates tangled clusters across the cryptocurrencies. The analysis provides contrasting results as obtained in the pre-analysis phase. Implications for investors and policymakers are highlighted in the study.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Muhammad Abubakr Naeem","Saba Qureshi","Mobeen Ur Rehman","Faruk Balli"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1950908","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-69be90c8f30a33a1","title":"The Tragedy of the Grabbed Commons: Coercion and Dispossession in the Global Land Rush","abstract":"Rural populations around the world rely on small-scale farming and other uses of land and natural resources, which are often governed by customary, traditional, and indigenous systems of common property. In recent years, large-scale land acquisitions have drastically expanded; it is unclear whether the commons are a preferential target of these acquisitions. Here we argue that the contemporary global “land rush” could be happening at the expense of common-property systems around the world. While there is evidence that common-property systems have developed traditional institutions of resource governance that make them robust with respect to endogenous forces (e.g., uses by community members), it is less clear how vulnerable these arrangements are to exogenous drivers of globalization and expansion of transnational land investments. In common-property systems, farmers and local users may be unable to defend their customary rights and successfully compete with external actors. We define the notion of “commons grabbing” and report on an exploratory study that applied meta-analytical methods, drawing from the recent literature on large-scale land acquisitions and land grabbing. Informed by political economy and political ecology approaches, we coded selected cases on the basis of acquisition mechanisms, claims and property rights, changes in production system, and coercive dynamics, and explored the interactions between the different variables using association tests and qualitative comparative analysis. We found that the majority of the cases included in this analysis (44 of 56) could be examples of commons grabbing.","wordCount":236,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Jampel Dell’Angelo","Paolo D’Odorico","Maria Cristina Rulli","Philippe Marchand"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.11.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-69c0b1ff684a115a","title":"Impact of the Indiana Choice Scholarship Program: Achievement Effects for Students in Upper Elementary and Middle School","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of the Indiana Choice Scholarship Program on student achievement for low‐income students in upper elementary and middle school who used a voucher to transfer from public to private schools during the first four years of the program. We analyzed student‐level longitudinal data from public and private schools taking the same statewide standardized assessment. Overall, voucher students experienced an average achievement loss of 0.15 SDs in mathematics during their first year of attending a private school compared with matched students who remained in a public school. This loss persisted regardless of the length of time spent in a private school. In English/Language Arts, we did not observe statistically meaningful effects. Although school vouchers aim to provide greater educational opportunities for students, the goal of improving the academic performance of low‐income students who use a voucher to move to a private school has not yet been realized in Indiana.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["R. Joseph Waddington","Mark Berends"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22086","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-69da9aaf3ec31aef","title":"Inequality with Ordinal Data","abstract":"The standard theory of inequality measurement assumes that the equalisand is a cardinal quantity, with known cardinalization. However, one often needs to make inequality comparisons where either the cardinalization is unknown or the underlying data are categorical. We propose an alternative approach to inequality analysis that is rigorous, has a natural interpretation, and embeds both the ordinal data problem and the well‐known cardinal data problem. We show how the approach can be applied to the inequality of happiness and of health status.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Frank Cowell","Emmanuel Flachaire"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12232","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-69de2b30e76f031f","title":"Minimally unstable Pareto improvements over deferred acceptance","abstract":"We investigate efficient and minimally unstable Pareto improvements over the deferred acceptance (DA) mechanism—a popular school choice mechanism that is stable but not efficient. We show that there is no Pareto improvement over the DA mechanism that is minimally unstable among efficient assignments when the stability comparison is based on counting the number of blocking pairs. Our main result characterizes the priority profiles for which there exists a Pareto improvement over the DA assignment that is minimally unstable among efficient assignments. We further consider an alternative natural stability comparison based on the set of blocking students who are involved in at least one blocking pair, show that the impossibilities remain, and characterize the possibility domain of priority profiles.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Battal Doğan","Lars Ehlers"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4257","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-69df33b430f3866c","title":"Elasticity of substitution between robots and workers: Theory and evidence from Japanese robot price data","abstract":"This paper examines the wage effects of the increased use of industrial robots, focusing on their role in specific tasks and international trade. I construct a novel dataset by tracking shocks to the cost of acquiring robots from Japan, termed the Japan Robot Shock (JRS), and analyze these shocks across different occupations that have adopted robots. A general equilibrium model incorporating robot automation in a large open economy is developed, and a model-implied optimal instrumental variable of the JRS is constructed to address the identification challenges posed by the correlation between automation shocks and the JRS. The study finds that the elasticity of substitution (EoS) between robots and labor is heterogeneous across occupations, reaching up to 3 in production and material moving occupations, which is significantly higher than the EoS between other capital goods and labor. These findings underscore the importance of targeted policy to help workers adapt and mitigate potential wage pressures.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Daisuke Adachi"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103782","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-69f46196bd9a1a8d","title":"Nonlinear Shrinkage of the Covariance Matrix for Portfolio Selection: Markowitz Meets Goldilocks","abstract":"Markowitz (1952) portfolio selection requires an estimator of the covariance matrix of returns. To address this problem, we promote a nonlinear shrinkage estimator that is more flexible than previous linear shrinkage estimators and has just the right number of free parameters (i.e., the Goldilocks principle). This number is the same as the number of assets. Our nonlinear shrinkage estimator is asymptotically optimal for portfolio selection when the number of assets is of the same magnitude as the sample size. In backtests with historical stock return data, it performs better than previous proposals and, in particular, it dominates linear shrinkage.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Olivier Ledoit","Michael Wolf"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx052","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a06a6ec076e6d33","title":"Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs","abstract":"Central banks’ announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between 2011:III and 2012:IV, these two interpretations coexisted despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalize these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs introduce a trade-off in forward guidance policy: leveraging on the optimism of those who believe in monetary easing comes at the cost of inducing excess pessimism in non-believers.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Philippe Andrade","Gaetano Gaballo","Éric Mengus","Benoı̂t Mojon"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180141","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a06c1c2717a49b1","title":"Corporate noncompliance: Do corporate violations affect bank loan contracting?","abstract":"We examine the effect of corporate violations on bank loan contracting and document that borrowers with higher corporate violation penalties have higher loan costs. Higher corporate violations are also associated with more restrictive covenants and a higher likelihood of a collateral requirement. The increasing effect of corporate violations on loan costs is concentrated in opaque firms or those subject to more competitive markets or ineffective monitoring. Firms with higher violation penalties have lower future performance and a higher number of future violations. Overall, our results demonstrate that banks factor corporate violations into their lending decisions, thus shedding new light on the economic consequences of corporate violations through the creditors’ lens.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Huu Nhan Duong","Mariem Khalifa","Ali Sheikhbahaei","Mohammed Aminu Sualihu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107225","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a1e976fd4bce47e","title":"Choice consistency and strength of preference","abstract":"Even when presented with the same choices multiple times, humans often make different decisions. We re-analyze data from five experiments using repeated choices in the domain of risky and inter-temporal choices and show that choice consistency is directly linked to cardinal differences in independently-estimated utilities. Strength of preference is monotonically related to choice consistency, with choices being more inconsistent when the alternatives are more similar in preference terms.","wordCount":68,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Carlos Alós‐Ferrer","Michele Garagnani"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109672","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6a1f893c25b5fdb7","title":"Noisy persuasion","abstract":"We study the effect of noise due to exogenous information distortions in the context of Bayesian persuasion. We first characterize the optimal signal in the prosecutor-judge game from Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011) with a noisy and strongly symmetric communication channel and show that the sender's payoff increases in the number of messages. This implies that, with exogenous noise, the sender prefers to complicate communication. Then, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the sender's payoff to weakly increase in the Blackwell-informativeness of the noise channel when the message space and the channel are binary. The reason why a sender may benefit from additional noise is that a garbling may alter the noise structure. Subsequently, we provide sufficient conditions that extend this result to channels of arbitrary cardinality. Finally, we introduce a procedure of making a communication channel more complex and prove that increased complexity benefits the sender.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Elias Tsakas","Nikolas Tsakas"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a20ae617bdac153","title":"Excess Sensitivity of High-Income Consumers","abstract":"Using new transaction data, I find considerable deviations from consumption smoothing in response to large, regular, predetermined, and salient payments from the Alaska Permanent Fund. On average, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 25% for nondurables and services within one quarter of the payments. The MPC is heterogeneous, monotonically increasing with income, and the average is largely driven by high-income households with substantial amounts of liquid assets, who have MPCs above 50%. The account-level data and the properties of the payments rule out most previous explanations of excess sensitivity, including buffer stock models and rational inattention. How big are these “mistakes?” Using a sufficient statistics approach, I show that the welfare loss from excess sensitivity depends on the MPC and the relative payment size as a fraction of income. Since the lump-sum payments do not depend on income, the two statistics are negatively correlated such that the welfare losses are similar across households and small (less than 0.1% of wealth), despite the large MPCs.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Lorenz Kueng"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy014","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a20f9b78b9eeba1","title":"Immigration policy and immigrants’ sleep. Evidence from DACA","abstract":"Stress is associated with sleep problems and poor sleep is linked to mental health and depression symptoms. The stress associated with immigrant status and immigration policy can directly affect mental health. While previous studies have documented the significant relationship between immigration policy and the physical and mental health of immigrants, we know little about the effects of immigration policy on immigrants’ sleep patterns. Exploiting the approval of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program in 2012, we study how immigrants’ sleep behavior responds to a change in immigration policy. Consistent with the findings of previous research documenting the positive effects of DACA on mental health, we find evidence of a significant improvement in immigrants’ sleep in response to this policy change. However, the estimated effects of the policy disappear rapidly after 2016. While temporary authorization programs such as DACA may have beneficial impacts on immigrants’ sleep in the short term, the effects of such temporary programs can be rapidly undermined by uncertainty about their future. Thus, permanent legalization programs may be more effective at achieving long-term effects, thereby eliminating uncertainty around the legal status of undocumented immigrants.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Osea Giuntella","Jakub Lonsky","Fabrizio Mazzonna","Luca Stella"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.11.037","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6a2d01ca36911cfb","title":"Open-source information and repression","abstract":"With information-gathering devices like smartphones and drones proliferating, the likelihood that acts of government incompetence or wrongdoing leave relevant traces in the public domain steadily rises. The current paper proposes an applied game-theoretic model to explore how an incumbent politician with reelection concerns responds to this rise in open-source information. The analysis shows that an inherent aspect of the rise is a tendency towards heightened repression. In the model, if executive power is not sufficiently checked, the incumbent escalates hidden repression against free speech. Consequently, the electorate receives less, rather than more, information about the type of the incumbent – and the prospect of electoral defeat due to incompetence diminishes. The model’s predictions align with recent global trends in freedom of expression. The analysis stresses the rising importance of fortifying institutions that safeguard free speech and warns that international bodies like the European Union will be subject to growing centrifugal forces.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Manuel Oechslin"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a39318c9acbbd3c","title":"Tuition Fees and University Enrolment: A Meta‐Regression Analysis","abstract":"One of the most frequently examined relationships in education economics is the correlation between tuition fee increases and the demand for higher education. We provide a quantitative synthesis of 443 estimates of this effect reported in 43 studies. While large negative estimates dominate the literature, we show that researchers report positive and insignificant estimates less often than they should. After correcting for this publication bias, we find that the literature is consistent with the mean tuition–enrolment elasticity being close to zero. Nevertheless, we identify substantial heterogeneity among the reported effects: for example, male students and students at private universities display larger elasticities. The results are robust to controlling for model uncertainty, using both Bayesian and frequentist methods of model averaging.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Tomáš Havránek","Zuzana Iršová","Olesia Zeynalova"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12240","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a3c538b9acf9210","title":"Historical Antisemitism, Ethnic Specialization, and Financial Development","abstract":"Historically, European Jews have specialized in financial services while being the victims of antisemitism. We find that the present-day demand for finance is lower in German counties where historical antisemitism was higher, compared to otherwise similar counties. Households in counties with high historical antisemitism have similar saving rates but invest less in stocks, hold lower saving deposits, and are less likely to get a mortgage to finance homeownership after controlling for wealth and a rich set of current and historical covariates. Present-day antisemitism and supply-side forces do not fully explain the results. Households in counties where historical antisemitism was higher distrust the financial sector more—a potential cultural externality of historical antisemitism that reduces wealth accumulation in the long run.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Francesco D’Acunto","Marcel Prokopczuk","Michael Weber"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy021","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a3e85bfe275e860","title":"Boundedly rational expected utility theory","abstract":"We build a satisficing model of choice under risk which embeds Expected Utility Theory (EUT) into a boundedly rational deliberation process. The decision maker accumulates evidence for and against alternative options by repeatedly sampling from her underlying set of EU preferences until the evidence favouring one option satisfies her desired level of confidence. Despite its EUT core, the model produces patterns of behaviour that violate standard EUT axioms, while at the same time capturing systematic relationships between choice probabilities, response times and confidence judgments, which are beyond the scope of theories that do not take deliberation into account.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Daniel Navarro‐Martinez","Graham Loomes","Andrea Isoni","David Butler","Larbi Chrifi‐Alaoui"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9293-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a4b11ecf226e043","title":"Government‐led e‐commerce expansion project and rural household income: Evidence and mechanisms","abstract":"This paper examines the impacts of a government‐led e‐commerce expansion project on household income. We find that the project has led to increases in rural household income. The positive impacts are more prominent for lower‐income rural households. The income‐increasing effects are driven by the reduction in information search costs and transportation costs. The provision of complementary interventions for e‐commerce, such as promoting the internet‐related skills of farmers and the expansion of formal financial credit support is also important for the program's success. The results provide policy implications for the design and implementation of government‐led e‐commerce policies in developing economies.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Shiyi Chen","Wanlin Liu","Hong Song","Qing Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13167","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a5220f4169f7b0e","title":"Status quo effects in fairness games: reciprocal responses to acts of commission versus acts of omission","abstract":"Both the law and culture distinguish between acts of commission that overturn the status quo and acts of omission that uphold it. This distinction is of central importance when it comes to reciprocal actions. A stylized fact of everyday life is that acts of commission elicit stronger reciprocal responses than do acts of omission. We report experiments that directly test whether this stylized fact characterizes behavior in controlled experiments. We compare reciprocal responses to both types of acts in experiments using binary, extensive form games. Across three experiments, we examine the robustness of our results to different ways in which the status quo can be induced in experiments. The data show a clear difference between effects of acts of commission and omission by first movers on reciprocal responses by second movers.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["James C. Cox","Maroš Servátka","Radovan Vadovič"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9477-0","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a5e26afd8008f49","title":"Endogenous Entry and Growth of Firms with Heterogeneous Firms","abstract":"We analyze the impact of persistent cost heterogeneity of potential firms on free entry equilibria under a Cournot setting. We show that firm heterogeneity always reduces the number of firms in equilibrium, and that vertical and horizontal market growth have different effects on industry population and firm dynamics. Vertical market growth always promotes entry and growth of new firms, but heterogeneity weakens this effect. For horizontal market growth, we identify two growth regimes: incumbents dominate in large markets with significant heterogeneity, while new entrants grow faster in smaller markets with low heterogeneity. In contrast to existing research, we show that higher degrees of heterogeneity among potential firms reduces entry rates in both cases.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Markus Thomas Münter"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09906-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a74cff910b54600","title":"Mentors or Teachers? Microenterprise Training in Kenya","abstract":"We use a randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that inexperienced female microenterprise owners in a Kenyan slum benefit from mentorship by an experienced entrepreneur in the same community. Mentorship increases profits by 20 percent on average with initially large effects that fade as matches dissolve. We conduct a formal business education intervention, which has no effect on profits despite changes in business practice. Our results demonstrate that missing information is a salient barrier to profitability, but the type of information matters: access to the localized, specific knowledge of mentors increases profit while abstract, general information from the class does not.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Wyatt Brooks","Kevin Donovan","Terence Johnson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170042","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a75f7ca3b24743d","title":"Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks","abstract":"We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility are robustly followed by contractions, while shocks to forward-looking uncertainty have no significant effect on the economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the realization of volatility, rather than uncertainty about the future, that has been associated with declines.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["David Berger","Ian Dew-Becker","Stefano Giglio"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz010","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a78171da94985da","title":"Price-Directed Search, Product Differentiation and Competition","abstract":"Especially in many online markets, consumers can readily observe prices, but may need to inspect products further to assess their suitability. We study the effects of product differentiation and search costs on competition and market outcomes in a tractable model of price-directed consumer search. We find that: (i) firms' equilibrium pricing always induces efficient search behavior; (ii) for relatively large product differentiation, welfare distortions still occur because some consumers (may) forgo consumption; and (iii) lower search costs lead to stochastically higher prices, which increases firms' expected profits and decreases their frequency of sales. Consumer surplus often falls when search costs decrease.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Martin Obradovits","Philipp Plaickner"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09916-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a7a7d5a8497a6e7","title":"Regulatory Similarity","abstract":"Using the full text of the Federal Register, the official publication of the US government, we develop a similarity score that compares the regulatory exposure of pairs of companies. A higher score means that the two firms comply with similar regulations by the same regulatory agencies. Existing similarity measures such as industry boundaries, geographic proximity, and product markets account for only one-quarter of the variation in regulatory similarity. Nevertheless, firms with high regulatory similarity comove along key dimensions such as overhead costs, profitability, and investment. Using a supervised machine-learning algorithm, we decompose the similarity into 12 topics and find that it is driven by regulatory issues related to fiscal policy and labor. Each firm has a unique set of peers for each topic, and they all lobby the government on similar topics. Combined, our results uncover economically important links between companies centered around regulatory issues.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Jason Chen","Joseph Kalmenovitz"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/728427","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a7b279ea29a5e15","title":"Do public environmental concerns promote new energy enterprises' development? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment","abstract":"We examine whether the public environmental concerns promote the development of new energy enterprises through a quasi-experiment China's extreme event of 2011 when the PM2.5 Surge incident escalated public environmental concerns. After this incident, the market power of new energy enterprises in severely polluted regions became 108% higher than that in the mildly polluted regions. It implies that public environmental concerns promote the development of new energy enterprises. This observation is limited to non-state-owned companies, companies without political connections, and regions without new energy subsidies. This increased market power of new energy enterprises with increasing public environmental concerns was because of sales increase instead of reduced non-operational costs. Overall, this study answers several interesting questions associated with the increasing public environmental concerns and the rapid development of energy enterprises.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Yan Gu","Kung‐Cheng Ho","Senmao Xia","Cheng Yan"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105967","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a8374dcb2d36084","title":"Pathbreakers? Women's Electoral Success and Future Political Participation","abstract":"We investigate whether the event of women being competitively elected as state legislators encourages subsequent political participation among women. Using a regression discontinuity design on Indian constituency level data, we find that female incumbents are more likely than male incumbents to re‐contest and that there is a decline in the entry of new women candidates. This decline is most pronounced in states with entrenched gender bias and in male‐headed parties, suggesting an intensification of barriers against women in these areas. Similar results for (mostly male) Muslim candidates indicate the presence of institutionalised demand‐side barriers rather than gender‐specific preferences and constraints.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Sonia Bhalotra","Irma Clots‐Figueras","Lakshmi Iyer"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12492","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6a98285b84cc2112","title":"Task Specialization in U.S. Cities from 1880 to 2000","abstract":"We develop a new methodology for quantifying the tasks undertaken within occupations using over 3,000 verbs from more than 12,000 occupational descriptions in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOTs). Using micro data from the United States from 1880 to 2000, we find an increase in the employment share of interactive occupations within sectors over time that is larger in metro areas than nonmetro areas. We interpret these findings using a model in which reductions in transport and communication costs induce urban areas to specialize according to their comparative advantage in interactive tasks. We present suggestive evidence relating increases in employment in interactive occupations to improvements in transport and communication technologies. Our findings highlight a change in the nature of agglomeration over time toward an increased emphasis on human interaction.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Guy Michaels","Ferdinand Rauch","Stephen J. Redding"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy007","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6a9bad6ba66f6ec2","title":"Children’s education and parental old age survival – Quasi-experimental evidence on the intergenerational effects of human capital investment","abstract":"While a large literature has investigated the role of parental human capital on children's well-being, relatively little is known regarding the effects of human capital investment in children on long run outcomes of parents. In this study we explore the human capital variations created by the 1974 Tanzania education reform to estimate the effect of children's primary schooling attainment on parental survival. Using 5,026,315 census records from 1988, 2002, and 2012, we show that the 1974 reform resulted in an additional 1.1 years (31%) of educational attainment among exposed cohorts. Using the reform as instrument for child education we find that each additional year of primary schooling in children resulted in a 3.7 percentage point reduction (p < .001) in the probability of maternal death, and a 0.8 percentage point reduction (p = .011) in the probability of paternal death by the time exposed child cohorts reach age 50. The results suggest that-at least in a setting where social security coverage is largely absent-a substantial fraction of human capital gains generated by reforms are shared with the parental generation.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jan‐Walter De Neve","Günther Fink"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.01.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a9bae5cf000779d","title":"Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis","abstract":"It is important to understand how conflicts within or between countries impact national economic and social development pathways, requiring policymakers to design effective mechanisms to counter the regressive effects of conflict. We explored the relationships between conflict and different types of development outcomes: economic growth, life expectancy, and educational attainment. We applied a dynamic fixed effects estimator to an autoregressive distributed lag model using 1996–2019 panel data for 109 countries. This method enabled us to identify the different short- and long-term effects of conflict on development by mitigating the endogenous effects of the variables. Subsample analyses according to the income levels of countries produced interesting results: the higher a country's income level, the less significant the negative effects of conflict on its development.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Thai‐Ha Le","Manh‐Tien Bui","Gazi Salah Uddin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105980","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6a9fba31543434c5","title":"Bigger cities better climate? Results from an analysis of urban areas in China","abstract":"Continued urban population expansion will be a defining challenge for climate change mitigation, and global sustainability more generally, over the coming decades. In this context, an important but underexplored issue concerns the relationship between the scale of urban areas and their carbon emissions. This paper employs the urban Kaya relation and Reduced Major Axis regression to look at urban emission patterns in China from 2000 to 2016. Our results reveal that larger cities tend to have lower per capita emissions. Thus, population agglomeration may be able to contribute to climate change mitigation and a wider transition to sustainability. The inverse-U shape between carbon emissions and population size is found. In addition, we observe unique scaling patterns in different regions, revealing how the relationship between emissions and population can be influenced by economic geography. City consumption weakens the role of population agglomeration in reducing carbon emissions in the East region, therefore it should be placed top priority in carbon emissions mitigation. These findings are important for China which looks to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 against the backdrop of intertwined interplay between population agglomeration and city consumption.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Lu Cheng","Zhifu Mi","Andrew Sudmant","D’Maris Coffman"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105872","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6aa01d6cff510a80","title":"Commons grabbing and agribusiness: Violence, resistance and social mobilization","abstract":"The recent phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) is associated with what has been described as a global agrarian transition. New forms of land exploitation and concentration have led to profound socio-environmental transformations of rural production systems in Latin America, South-East Asia and Sub Saharan Africa. Scholars have pointed out that the expansion of transnational land investments is often associated with detrimental social outcomes, has negative environmental impacts and can represent a potential impediment to the achievement of many SDGs. In this paper, our primary concern is on the mounting evidence that LSLAs preferentially target the commons, in the process altering long-standing customary resource governance systems. While it has been shown that in many instances of commons grabbing associated with LSLAs, different types of social conflict emerge, it is less clear what forms of social mobilization and organized collective re-actions are taking place to defend the commons and contest such processes of dispossession and enclosure. The main aim of this contribution is to fill this gap by synthesizing and describing the different typologies of social mobilization and collective re-actions that emerge as a result of commons grabbing associated with the transnational expansion of the agribusiness frontier. In order to do this our research synthesizes information from the Environmental Justice Atlas (EJAtlas) shedding light on some of the key characteristics associated with the different forms and dynamics of social mobilization that are organized in reaction to agribusiness-related commons grabbing.","wordCount":238,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Jampel Dell’Angelo","Grettel Navas","Marga Witteman","Giacomo D’Alisa","Arnim Scheidel","Leah Temper"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6ab41428f386bbee","title":"Snacks, nudges and asymmetric peer influence: Evidence from food choice experiments with children in Indonesia","abstract":"Many children in low- and middle-income countries are growing up during a rapid nutrition transition. Experimental evidence on food choice in developing countries is scarce, while it is unclear to what extent evidence from high-income countries can be generalized. Children participated in a snack choice experiment. We expose some children to emoji labels encouraging healthy snacks, while others observe healthy or unhealthy snacking by peers. While emoji labels moderately promote healthy snacking, the adverse effect of observing a peer eating the unhealthy snack is very large. The effect associated with observing a healthy peer is insignificant. Additionally, cross-randomized blocks of children watched a nutrition video to study the interaction of information provision and nudging. The video independently improves healthy choices but does not aid the emoji nudge and cannot counter the strong negative peer effect. We compare our findings to studies conducted in developed countries and discuss policy implications.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Margarita de Vries Mecheva","Matthias Rieger","Robert Sparrow","Erfi Prafiantini","Rina Agustina"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102508","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6abfd65342f73cc9","title":"Structural Change, Expanding Informality and Labor Productivity Growth in Russia","abstract":"Strong growth, intensive structural change, and expanding informality have characterized many developing and emerging economies in recent decades. Yet most empirical investigations into the relationship between structural change and productivity growth overlook informality. This paper includes the informal sector in an analysis of the effects of structural changes in the Russian economy on aggregate labor productivity growth. Using a newly developed dataset for 34 industries covering the period 1995–2012 and applying three alternative approaches, aggregate labor productivity growth is decomposed into intra‐industry and inter‐industry contributions. All three approaches show that the overall contribution of structural change is growth enhancing, significant, and decreasing over time. Labor reallocation from the formal sector to the informal sector tends to reduce growth through the extension of informal activities with low productivity levels. Sectoral labor reallocation effects are found to be highly sensitive to the methods applied.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Ilya B. Voskoboynikov"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12417","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6ac388c5a3dc8408","title":"Bank systemic risk exposure and office market interconnectedness","abstract":"We empirically examine how systemic risk in the banking sector leads to correlated risk in office markets of global financial centers. In so doing, we compute an aggregated measure of systemic risk in financial centers as the cumulated expected capital shortfall of local financial institutions. Our identification strategy is based on a double counterfactual approach by comparing normal with financial distress periods as well as office with retail markets. We find that office market interconnectedness arises from systemic risk during financial turmoil periods. Office market performance in a financial center is affected by returns of systemically linked financial center office markets only during a systemic banking crisis. In contrast, there is no evidence of correlated risk during normal times and among the within-city counterfactual retail sector. The decline in office market returns during a banking crisis is larger in financial centers compared to non-financial centers.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Roland Füss","Daniel Ruf"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106311","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6aca64a7086e8cfb","title":"Uninsured Unemployment Risk and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Zero-Liquidity Economy","abstract":"I study optimal monetary policy in a sticky-price economy wherein households precautionary-save against uninsured, endogenous unemployment risk. In this economy greater unemployment risk raises desired savings, causing aggregate demand to fall and feed back to greater unemployment risk. This deflationary spiral is constrained inefficient and calls for an accommodative monetary policy response: after a contractionary aggregate shock the policy rate should be kept significantly lower and for longer than in the perfect-insurance benchmark. For example, the usual prescription obtained under perfect insurance of a hike in the policy rate in the face of a bad supply (i.e., productivity or cost-push) shock is easily overturned. The optimal policy breaks the deflationary spiral and takes the dynamics of the imperfect-insurance economy close to that of the perfect-insurance benchmark. These results are derived in an economy with zero asset supply (zero liquidity) and are thus independent of any redistributive effect of monetary policy on household wealth.","wordCount":153,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Édouard Challe"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180207","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6adc36373ee463e0","title":"Synchronized elections strengthen party salience: Evidence from a decentralized democracy","abstract":"Voters participate in multiple elections across governance tiers, often on the same day. We investigate how synchronizing two salient elections influences voter behavior and electoral outcomes, leveraging variation in the timing of national and state elections in India. We find that synchronized elections, compared to closely timed but asynchronous elections, increase political parties’ salience among voters, boosting straight-ticket voting with a small increase in turnout. These effects result in a 21% higher probability of the same political party winning across tiers, without altering candidate composition. While synchronization significantly influences state government formation, it does not affect development outcomes. We provide suggestive evidence that voters’ cognitive constraints and increased party campaigning are likely mechanisms. A synchronized election design in decentralized democracies like India can therefore affect the relative importance of parties vis-a-vis candidates during elections and potentially shape the nature of political decentralization.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Vimal Balasubramaniam","Apurav Yash Bhatiya","Sabyasachi Das"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6adea1f140459364","title":"Effects of political promotion on local firms’ social responsibility in China","abstract":"In China, public officials control enormous resources and their political incentives substantially shape certain firm behaviors. As corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities are one of the important measures that the central government uses to evaluate the performance of local government, firms may strategically implement CSR to build a good relationship with local governments. In this paper, we investigate the effects of political incentives on firms’ CSR performance using a panel of Chinese publicly listed firms for the period 2009–2013. We find political incentives significantly improve firms’ CSR. Moreover, this relationship is particularly pronounced among firms with (i) low proportions of state ownership; (ii) close political connections; and (iii) relatively high financial constraints. We also find that firms that strategically apply CSR to accommodate the local government’s political incentives obtain more tax/subsidy benefits. Overall, this study improves our understanding of the political determinants of CSR in emerging markets.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Dongmin Kong","Xu Cheng","Xiandeng Jiang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.03.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6ae5b50b5dfd142f","title":"On “Innovation and institutional ownership”","abstract":"In their article “Innovation and Institutional Ownership”, Aghion et al. (2013) find that the rise in institutional stock ownership in the U.S. during the 1990s led to an increase in corporate innovation, as measured by patent and patent citation counts. Their article concludes that “contrary to the view that institutional ownership induces a short-term focus in managers, we find that their presence boosts innovation” (p. 302). Subsequent research has generally accepted this finding at face value. However, we uncover several critical issues with their data. Addressing these issues renders the results economically and statistically insignificant and, in some instances, even suggests a negative relationship between institutional ownership and U.S. innovation.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Markus Simeth","David Wehrheim"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102569","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6ae7cf795dc5b530","title":"Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning","abstract":"We show that machine learning methods, in particular, extreme trees and neural networks (NNs), provide strong statistical evidence in favor of bond return predictability. NN forecasts based on macroeconomic and yield information translate into economic gains that are larger than those obtained using yields alone. Interestingly, the nature of unspanned factors changes along the yield curve: stock- and labor-market-related variables are more relevant for short-term maturities, whereas output and income variables matter more for longer maturities. Finally, NN forecasts correlate with proxies for time-varying risk aversion and uncertainty, lending support to models featuring both channels.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Daniele Bianchi","Matthias Büchner","Andrea Tamoni"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa062","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6af52f207351ec87","title":"Efficient Quasi-Bayesian Estimation of Affine Option Pricing Models Using Risk-Neutral Cumulants","abstract":"We propose a general, accurate and fast econometric approach for the estimation of affine option pricing models. The algorithm belongs to the class of Laplace-Type Estimation (LTE) techniques and exploits Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. We employ functions of the risk-neutral cumulants given in closed form to marginalize latent states, and we address parameter estimation by designing a density tempered SMC sampler. We test our algorithm on simulated data by tackling the challenging inference problem of estimating an option pricing model which displays two stochastic volatility factors, allows for co-jumps between price and volatility, and stochastic jump intensity. Furthermore, we consider real data and estimate the model on a large panel of option prices. Numerical studies confirm the accuracy of our estimates and the superiority of the proposed approach compared to its natural benchmark.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Riccardo Brignone","Luca Gonzato","Eva Lütkebohmert"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106745","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6af581dc8454f937","title":"Predicting serial position effects and judgment errors in retrospective evaluations from memory recall","abstract":"When forming global impressions in retrospect, the first, the last, and the most outstanding experience often have a lasting impact on the final evaluation of an event, as most prominently captured in the peak-end rule. Such serial position effects in impression formation provide indirect evidence that individuals reconstruct their evaluations by retrieving previous experiences from memory, instead of updating their impression online. Yet, latest work sheds doubt on the ability to predict global evaluations from memory retrieval on the individual level. In three experiments, we aim to quantify how much variability in retrospective evaluations can be attributed to memory retrieval by relating serial position effects in retrospective averaging judgments to serial recall curves from memory. The experiments revealed serial position effects in memory recall and corresponding, but less consistent effects in averaging judgments, demonstrating that individuals better recalled and more heavily weighted the first and last item. For long sequences, memory recall permitted to predict individuals’ averaging error to a moderate to strong degree, even if individuals were unaware of number recall as a potential averaging strategy (Experiment 2). Yet, shorter sequences fail to evidence the same relationship, possibly because individuals attempt to apply more optimal averaging strategies (Experiment 3). We discuss retrieval patterns as markers for distinct evaluation strategies.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["J. Hoffmȧnn","Ann-Katrin Hosch"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102622","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6afaf54201c7088c","title":"Does Uber Benefit Travelers by Price Discrimination?","abstract":"We use Uber fare data for passenger trips from Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco airports to hotels in those metropolitan areas to test whether Uber engages in third-degree price discrimination by charging higher fares to travelers who originate from the same airports as other travelers but who stay at more expensive hotels. We find that fares are positively and statistically significantly related to the price of hotel rooms. Importantly, we also find that allowing ride-sharing companies to price discriminate improves travelers’ welfare, on average, by increasing their travel options.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Yenjae Chang","Clifford Winston","Jia Yan"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/721266","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6b2a486ed8a5a503","title":"Preregistration and reproducibility","abstract":"Many view preregistration as a promising way to improve research credibility. However, scholars have argued that using pre-analysis plans in Experimental Economics has limited benefits. This paper argues that preregistration of studies is likely to improve research credibility. I show that in a setting with selective reporting and low statistical power, effect sizes are highly inflated, and this translates into low reproducibility. Preregistering the original studies could avoid such inflation of effect sizes—through increasing the share of “frequentist” researchers—and would lead to more credible power analyses for replication studies. Numerical applications of the model indicate that the inflation bias could be very large in practice, and available empirical evidence is in line with the central assumptions of the model.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Eirik Strømland"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","A"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.01.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6b3cb977514432e9","title":"Career Incentives of City Leaders and Urban Spatial Expansion in China","abstract":"This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the critical role that politics play in shaping the spatial dimension of China's urbanization and the related welfare implications. Utilizing a large data set of residential land transactions matched with city leaders in 200 Chinese cities from 2000 through 2011, the empirical analysis finds that a 1 standard deviation increase in the career-incentive measure leads to 9 additional kilometers of outward expansion, a 23% increase relative to the sample average. It also finds some suggestive evidence pointing to the distortionary impacts of overly strong incentives of city leaders on spatial expansion, consistent with the theory.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Wang Zhi","Qinghua Zhang","Li‐An Zhou"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00862","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6b54809bd55cd6ab","title":"Eyes on the account size: Interactions between attention and budget in consumer choice","abstract":"The context surrounding a consumer decision, such as one’s overall budget available for purchases, can exert a strong effect on the subjective value of a product. Across three eye-tracking studies, we explore the attentional processes through which budget size influences consumers’ purchasing behavior. Higher budgets increased and sped up purchasing even when items were affordable at all budget sizes. Moreover, attention interacted with budget size to promote purchasing at higher budgets. Finally, individual differences in the magnitude of the budget effect related to attentional patterns: those whose decisions depended more on budget exhibited more budget-price transitions and less variability in search patterns compared to those whose decisions were less dependent on budget. These findings indicate that attention moderates the effect of budgets on purchasing decisions, allowing low budgets to serve as self-control devices and large budgets to generate impulse purchases.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Dianna Amasino","Jack Dolgin","Scott A. Huettel"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102632","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6b5b3c145dcfb6d1","title":"Product functionality, competition, and multipurchasing","abstract":"The more functionalities a good offers, the greater is its perceived quality. Equilibrium prices in standard spatial competition models depend solely on quality differences. We assume that new functionalities are more appreciated the closer a product is to a consumer's ideal variety. Prices are then increasing in functionality levels. Furthermore, we endogenize whether consumers buy only one of two varieties (single‐purchase) or both (multipurchase). Under multipurchase, there might be a hump‐shaped relationship between equilibrium prices and functionality levels. Therefore, it could be optimal for each supplier to sacrifice sales and set prices so high that multipurchase is eliminated.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Simon P. Anderson","Øystein Foros","Hans Jarle Kind"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12213","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6b5f6c1b68b98a24","title":"The Labor of Division: Returns to Compulsory High School Math Coursework","abstract":"Despite great focus on and public investment in STEM education, little causal evidence connects quantitative coursework to students’ economic outcomes. I show that state changes in minimum high school math requirements substantially increase black students’ completed math coursework and their later earnings. The marginal student’s return to an additional math course is 10%, roughly half the return to a year of high school, and is partly explained by a shift toward more cognitively skilled occupations. White students’ coursework and earnings are unaffected. Rigorous standards for quantitative coursework can close meaningful portions of racial gaps in economic outcomes.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Joshua Goodman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703135","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6b71c018dfa69230","title":"International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases","abstract":"This paper evaluates the international spillover effects of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) using an estimated two-country dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities and portfolio balance effects. Portfolio balance effects arise from imperfect substitutability between short- and long-term bond portfolios in each country, as well as between domestic and foreign bonds within these portfolios. We show that LSAPs in the United States lower long-term yields and stimulate economic activity not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world (ROW) economy. This occurs despite the currency appreciation in the ROW and the resulting deterioration in their trade balance. The key for this result is the decline in the ROW term premia through the portfolio balance channel, as the relative demand for ROW long-term bonds increases following an LSAP in the United States. Our model indicates that US asset purchases that generate the same output effect as US conventional monetary policy has larger international spillovers due to stronger portfolio balance effects. We also show that international openness in financial markets reduces the stimulatory effects of LSAPs in the originating country, while increasing their international spillover effects.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Sami Alpanda","Serdar Kabaca"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy053","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6ba39997be40fd5e","title":"Affirmative action and its race-neutral alternatives","abstract":"As affirmative action loses political feasibility, many universities have implemented race-neutral alternatives like top percent policies and holistic review to increase enrollment among disadvantaged students. I study these policies’ application, admission, and enrollment effects using University of California administrative data. UC’s affirmative action and top percent policies increased underrepresented minority (URM) enrollment by over 20 percent and less than 4 percent, respectively. Holistic review increases implementing campuses’ URM enrollment by about 7 percent. Top percent policies and holistic review have negligible effects on lower-income enrollment, while race-based affirmative action modestly increased enrollment among very low-income students. These findings highlight that the most common race-neutral alternatives to affirmative action increase Black and Hispanic enrollment far less than affirmative action itself and reveal that none of these policies substantially affect universities’ socioeconomic composition.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Zachary Bleemer"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104839","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6ba8153d85e97217","title":"An empirical total survey error decomposition using data combination","abstract":"Survey error is known to be pervasive and to bias even simple, but important, estimates of means, rates, and totals, such as the poverty and the unemployment rate. In order to summarize and analyze the extent, sources, and consequences of survey error, we define empirical counterparts of key components of the Total Survey Error Framework that can be estimated using data combination. Specifically, we estimate total survey error and decompose it into three high level sources of error: generalized coverage error, item non-response error and measurement error. We further decompose these sources into lower level sources such as failure to report a positive amount and errors in amounts conditional on reporting a positive value. For errors in dollars paid by two large government transfer programs, we use administrative records on the universe of program payments in New York State linked to three major household surveys to estimate the error components previously defined. We find that total survey error is large and varies in its size and composition, but measurement error is always by far the largest source of error. Our application shows that data combination makes it possible to routinely measure total survey error and its components. Our results allow survey producers to assess error reduction strategies and survey users to mitigate the consequences of survey errors or gauge the reliability of their conclusions.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Bruce Meyer","Nikolas Mittag"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.03.026","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6bceaac55f813942","title":"Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis","abstract":"We quantify the role of financial leverage behind the sluggish post-crisis investment performance of European firms. We use a cross-country firm-bank matched database to identify separate roles for firm leverage, bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from sovereign risk, and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms entering the crisis with higher debt levels reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms holding short-term debt in countries whose banks are weak due to sovereign stress, consistent with rollover risk being an important channel influencing investment. The negative effect of firm leverage on investment is also persistent for several years after the shock in the countries with sovereign stress. The corporate leverage channel can explain about 20% of the cumulative decline in aggregate private sector investment over the crisis period.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan","Luc Laeven","David Moreno"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6bddcc4941df8d32","title":"Efficient networks in games with local complementarities","abstract":"We address the problem of a planner looking for the efficient network when agents play a network game with local complementarities and links are costly. We show that for general network cost functions, efficient networks belong to the class of nested split graphs. Next, we refine our results and find that, depending on the specification of the network cost function, complete networks, core-periphery networks, dominant group architectures, quasi-star networks, and quasi-complete networks can be efficient.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Mohamed Belhaj","Sebastian Bervoets","Frédéric Deroı̈an"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1742","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6bdf1713ab80de65","title":"The impact of the liquidity coverage ratio on money creation: A stock-flow based dynamic approach","abstract":"This paper examines money creation process of the banking system when it is complying with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). A stock-flow based dynamic model of credit creation process is developed in which the commercial bank supplies loans to the firm. The change of credit is governed by the bank lending and the repayment of the existing loans, where the equilibrium stock of credit could be attained once the lending is exactly equal to the repayment. However, the supply of bank loans is restricted by both the reserve requirement set by the central bank and the LCR prescribed by the banking authority; and, as a result, money creation must be affected by all these regulations. The bank loan supply under the constraint of the required liquidity buffer might have different prescriptions under different economic scenarios, and would eventually result in an equilibrium monetary stock correspondingly. The final formula of money multiplier is derived respectively as the rational response of the bank to the corresponding regulation. When the reserve requirement is tighter than the LCR, the money multiplier has the same expression of that in the prevailing fractional reserve regime. Yet when the situation departs from this regime, the determinants of the money multiplier are found to be associated with the parameters that characterize the behavior of banks subject to the regulation and of the private sector rather than those monetary structural factors. It is noteworthy that there may be a credit contraction and even a significant reduction in money multiplier when the bank is regulated by the LCR. This novel perspective on credit creation of the banking system also offers us an insightful understanding on the impacts of banking regulations on the stability of the banking system and suggests a new guide tool for designing them.","wordCount":296,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Boyao Li","Wanting Xiong","Liujun Chen","Yougui Wang"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6c013c4e917dc64a","title":"Transparency and Deliberation Within the FOMC: A Computational Linguistics Approach","abstract":"How does transparency, a key feature of central bank design, affect monetary policy makers’ deliberations? Theory predicts a positive discipline effect and negative conformity effect. We empirically explore these effects using a natural experiment in the Federal Open Market Committee in 1993 and computational linguistics algorithms. We first find large changes in communication patterns after transparency. We then propose a difference-in-differences approach inspired by the career concerns literature, and find evidence for both effects. Finally, we construct an influence measure that suggests the discipline effect dominates.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Stephen Hansen","Michael McMahon","Andrea Prat"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6c102d5d73fa2261","title":"Class structure and inequality during the industrial revolution: lessons from England's social tables, 1688–1867","abstract":"This article measures the size and incomes of six major social classes across the industrial revolution using social tables for England and Wales in 1688, 1759, 1798, 1846, and 1867. Lindert and Williamson famously revised these tables, and this article extends their work in three directions. First, servants are removed from middle‐ and upper‐class households in the tables of King, Massie, and Colquhoun and tallied separately. Second, estimates are made for the same tables of the number and incomes of women and children employed in the various occupations, and, third, incomes are broken down into rents, profits, and employment income. These extensions to the tables allow variables to be computed that can be checked against independent estimates as a validation exercise. The tables are retabulated in a standardized set of six social groups to highlight the changing structure of society across the industrial revolution. Gini coefficients are computed from the social tables to measure inequality. These measures confirm that Britain traversed a ‘Kuznets curve’ in this period. Changes in overall inequality are related to the changing fortunes of the major social classes.","wordCount":182,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Robert C. Allen"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12661","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6c142159864a10b3","title":"The impact of economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy on R&D investment: An option pricing approach","abstract":"This paper adopts a real options approach to investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and monetary policy on R&D investment. Using a panel of U.S. firms over the period 2000–2019, we show that higher (lower) EPU and contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy exert a positive (negative) and significant influence on R&D investment. Our findings shed light on the counter-intuitive behavior of R&D investments, which may help policymakers to anticipate such collateral effects.","wordCount":73,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Luis P. de la Horra","Javier Perote","Gabriel de la Fuente Herrero"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110413","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6c183d6089d56e5d","title":"Judges, Juveniles, and In-Group Bias","abstract":"We investigate the existence of in-group bias (preferential treatment of one’s own group) in court decisions. Using the universe of juvenile-court cases in a US state between 1996 and 2012 and exploiting random assignment of juvenile defendants to judges, we find evidence for negative racial in-group bias in judicial decisions. All else being equal, black (white) juveniles who are randomly assigned to black (white) judges are more likely to be placed in custody, as opposed to being placed on probation, and they receive longer sentences. Although observed in experimental settings, this is the first empirical evidence of negative in-group bias based on a randomization design outside the lab. We provide explanations for this finding.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Briggs Depew","Özkan Eren","Naci Mocan"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/693822","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6c1929b944ba6a41","title":"Concord and contention in a dynamic unstructured bargaining experiment with costly conflict","abstract":"We report experimental results from a dynamic real-time bargaining experiment. Players earn flows of income from the assets they possess at any point in the bargaining process, while they incur costs which are proportional to the size of the conflict between players’ current claims. We find that most bargaining interactions are characterised by small but non-zero amounts of contention, which arises from the process of tacitly coordinating claims, including from negotiating turn-taking approaches. Interactions with large losses from contention occur in a sizeable minority of interactions. There are significant individual differences in outcomes across participants. We do not find systematic gender effects, but do find that the locus of control of participants predicts bargaining outcomes.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Lian Xue","Stefania Sitzia","Theodore L. Turocy"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102631","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6c2310aa4ae3fd00","title":"The effects of occupational licensing reform for nurse practitioners on children's health","abstract":"We examine how scope of practice reforms that allow nurse practitioners independent practice authority impact children's health. We exploit spatial and temporal variation in independent practice authority to implement a difference‐in‐differences research design using data from the first three waves of the National Survey of Children's Health. We find that these reforms have significant positive impacts on a commonly used and validated measure of children's health: parental evaluation of child health. As a result of this scope of practice reforms, parental evaluations of overall child health improve as parents increasingly rate their child as having Excellent Health. More importantly, we observe these improvements in health are driven primarily by older children and children from lower family income backgrounds. These findings indicate that an expansion in the supply of healthcare through occupational licensing reform can positively influence health outcomes for children. Such findings have important implications for mitigating child health inequality.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Moiz Bhai","David Mitchell"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12592","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6c4ac78f1f28e603","title":"The Impact of Federal Homelessness Funding on Homelessness","abstract":"Federal spending on homelessness has increased significantly in recent years. I estimate the relationship between federal homelessness funding and homeless counts in 2011, 2013, and 2015 cross sections. I instrument for funding using a community's pre‐1940 housing share, a key variable in an originally unrelated funding formula borrowed for homelessness grants. Funding increases sheltered homelessness; meanwhile, funding is unrelated to unsheltered homelessness. Lower bound estimates suggest that the minimum cost of reducing unsheltered homelessness has increased over time, from $16,400 in 2011 to $20,800 in 2013 to $50,000 in 2015. In 2013, an additional $1 thousand dollars corresponds to a .309 higher homeless rate per 10,000 people. The effect is larger for families than individuals. Funding is positively related to chronic homelessness and is unrelated to youth and child homelessness. My results suggest limitations on federal funding's ability to reduce homelessness among some of the most marginalized groups in society.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["David S. Lucas"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12231","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6c4cd15d484bf8e6","title":"Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy","abstract":"We study how capital controls and domestic macroprudential policy tame credit supply booms, either directly or by enhancing the local bank-lending channel of monetary policy. We exploit credit registry data and the introduction of capital controls on foreign exchange (FX) debt inflows and increase of reserve requirements on domestic bank deposits in Colombia during a boom. We find that capital controls strengthen the bank-lending channel. Increasing the local monetary policy rate widens the interest rate differential with the U.S.; hence, relatively more FX-indebted banks carry-trade cheap FX-funds with expensive peso lending, especially toward riskier firms. Capital controls tax FX-debt and break the carry-trade. Differently, raising reserve requirements on domestic deposits directly reduces credit supply, particularly for riskier firms, rather than enhancing the bank-lending channel. Importantly, banks differentially finance credit with domestic vis--vis FX-financing; hence, capital controls and domestic macroprudential policy complementarily mitigate the credit boom and related bank risk-taking.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Andrea Fabiani","Martha López Piñeros","José‐Luis Peydró","Paul E. Soto"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103677","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6c6444d6cf2885cd","title":"Platform design biases in ad‐funded two‐sided markets","abstract":"We investigate how platform market power affects platforms' design choices in ad‐funded two‐sided markets, where platforms may find it optimal to charge zero price on the consumer side and extract surplus on the advertising side. We consider design choices affecting both sides in opposite ways and compare private incentives with social incentives. Platforms' design biases depend crucially on whether they can charge any price on the consumer side. We apply the framework to technology adoption, privacy, and ad load choices. Our results provide a rationale for a tougher competition policy to curb market power of ad‐funded platforms with free services.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Jay Pil Choi","Doh‐Shin Jeon"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12436","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6c694759f8dad216","title":"A contribution to the theory of fertility and economic development","abstract":"The aim of this research is to build on a theory for explaining economic development in a (neoclassical) growth model with endogenous fertility. The economy is inhabited by overlapping generations of rational and identical individuals and identical competitive firms producing with a constant-returns-to-scale technology and no externalities. From a theoretical perspective, the distinguishing feature of this work is that endogenous fertility per se explains the existence of low- and high-development regimes. It provides different reasons (history driven or expectations driven) why some countries enter development trajectories with high GDP and low fertility and others experience underperformances with low GDP and high fertility. The model is also capable to reproduce fertility fluctuations and explain the baby busts and baby booms observed in the last century in some developed countries.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Luca Gori","Mauro Sodini"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000415","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6c696f8a14c56202","title":"Social interaction effects: The impact of distributional preferences on risky choices","abstract":"This paper identifies convex distributional preferences as a possible cause for the empirical observation that agents belonging to the same group tend to behave similarly in risky environments. We first show theoretically that convex distributional preferences imply social interaction effects in risky choices in the sense that observing a peer choose a risky (safe) option increases the agent's incentive to choose the risky (safe) option as well, even when lotteries are stochastically independent and the agent can only observe the lottery chosen by the peer but not the corresponding outcome. We then confirm our theoretical predictions experimentally.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Anita Gantner","Rudolf Kerschbamer"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9275-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6c7ffbfdd170dcf9","title":"A New Politics of Development Cooperation? Chinese and Brazilian Engagements in African Agriculture","abstract":"This paper introduces a Special Section on Chinese and Brazilian engagements in African agriculture. The paper asks if a new paradigm for development cooperation is emerging, and argues that we must move beyond the simplistic narratives of either “South–South” collaboration or “neo-imperial” expansion of “rising powers” to look at the dynamic and contested politics of engagement, as new forms of capital and technology enter African contexts. Historical experiences in Brazil and China, as well as domestic political and economic debates, affect how interventions are framed, and by whom, and so influence what technologies are chosen, which investments are funded, and who gets trained. There are both political and economic drivers at the heart of these choices, but these are not uniform or uncontested, either in Brazil and China or in Africa. The Special Section argues for a focus on the encounters on the ground, moving beyond the broader rhetoric and generic policy statements. A key feature of Brazilian and Chinese engagements in African agriculture is the role of state–business relations in shaping and steering development, suggesting new forms of developmentalism. The paper concludes that there is a growing opportunity for learning from the Brazilian and Chinese experience, as this will be a long-run feature of African agricultural development.","wordCount":208,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Ian Scoones","Kojo Amanor","Arilson Favareto","Gubo Qi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.020","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6c97d481701f6949","title":"Efficiency wages, consumption inequality and self-fulfilling business cycles","abstract":"We propose a model of business cycles for an economy that is characterized by involuntary unemployment and being dependent on energy imports. The presence of both factors increases aggregate volatility in a well-defined way: empirically reasonable degrees of income insurance and cost shares of imported energy generate equilibrium indeterminacy making the economy potentially subject to sunspots. The underlying force for this result is the heterogeneity in consumption levels of the employed and unemployed individuals. We estimate the model and find that its specification with indeterminacy has a marginal data density significantly higher than the determinacy version for the Great Moderation period as well as since the Great Recession. We back out a series for non-fundamental changes in expectations. This series of sunspots is highly correlated with a common measure of confidence and, through the lens of our theory, these sunspot shocks have played a non-trivial role in driving the U.S. business cycle.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Wei Dai","Mark Weder","Bo Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103716","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6c98b3645c38a65b","title":"Social Norms and the Enforcement of Laws","abstract":"We examine the interplay between social norms and the enforcement of laws. Agents choose a behavior (e.g., tax evasion, production of low-quality products, corruption, harassing behavior, substance abuse, etc.) and then are randomly matched with another agent. There are complementarities in behaviors so that an agent’s payoff decreases with the mismatch between her behavior and her partner’s, and with overall negative externalities created by the behavior of others. A law is an upper bound (cap) on behavior. A law-breaker, when detected, pays a fine and has her behavior forced down to the level of the law. Equilibrium law-breaking depends on social norms because detection relies, at least in part, on whistle-blowing. Law-abiding agents have an incentive to whistle-blow on a law-breaking partner because this reduces the mismatch with their partners’ behaviors as well as the negative externalities. When laws are in conflict with norms and many agents are breaking the law, each agent anticipates little whistle-blowing and is more likely to also break the law. Tighter laws (banning more behaviors), greater fines, and better public enforcement, all have counteracting effects, reducing behavior among law-abiding individuals but increasing it among law-breakers. We show that laws that are in strong conflict with prevailing social norms may backfire, whereas gradual tightening of laws can be more effective in influencing social norms and behavior.","wordCount":220,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Matthew O. Jackson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6ca7e772f57ee637","title":"Rethinking Indonesia’s Informal Sector","abstract":"This paper reviews competing theories about the causes of informality in developing countries and uses new data to determine which theory best explains the persistence and scale of Indonesia’s informal sector. Using nationally representative survey data on micro, small, and medium-sized firms, we find that most of Indonesia’s informal firms are very small, micro firms, with less than five employees. These firms pay low wages, are relatively unproductive when compared to large firms, are managed by individuals with low educational attainment, predominantly supply products to local markets, and have not recently attempted to expand their operations. From a small-scale, qualitative survey of firms, we find that many informal firms do not register their businesses either because they have no desire to expand or borrow from formal financial sources, or because they are avoiding taxes. Finally, we evaluate the impact of Indonesia’s one-stop-shops for business registration program, a large-scale program that attempted to reduce registration costs. We find both that the program had no effects on firms’ informality rates, and we also find that it did not reduce the probability that workers were informally employed. Taken together, the evidence suggests that a combination of the rational exit and the dual economy theories best explains why so many firms in Indonesia are informal.","wordCount":211,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Alexander D. Rothenberg","Arya Gaduh","Nicholas Burger","Charina Chazali","Indrasari Tjandraningsih","Rini Radikun","Cole Sutera","Sarah Weilant"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6cb7f428d15ea246","title":"Dynamic inconsistency under ambiguity: An experiment","abstract":"This paper experimentally investigates the potential existence of dynamically inconsistent individuals in a situation of ambiguity. The experiment involves participants making two sequential decisions concerning the allocation of a sum of money, with an ambiguous move by Nature occurring after first decision, and again after the second. We conducted two between-subject sessions: one incentivised and one unincentivised. By analysing the resulting data, we are able to classify participants into four distinct decision-making types: Myopic, Resolute, Sophisticated and Expected Utility (EU). Our results suggest that a significant proportion of the participants do not exhibit dynamic inconsistency being either Resolute, Sophisticated or EU. We discuss how monetary incentives can change the dynamic consistency of decision-makers and the salience of the Ambiguity. Differently from the incentivised treatment, we detect a slight increase of the proportion of Myopic behaviour in the hypothetical case, suspecting that incentives might affect dynamic consistency. A noteworthy observation is that, in the majority of cases, ambiguity tends to simplify to risk in the absence of monetary incentives. These findings have implications for economic decision-making and policymaking. By identifying the different types of decision-makers and understanding how they make choices, we can develop more effective strategies to promote desirable outcomes.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Rocco Caferra","John D. Hey","Andrea Morone","Marco Santorsola"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09418-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6cc0a01cc033c6e5","title":"Technological sanctions and their unintended consequences: Theory and evidence","abstract":"We extend Melitz's (2003) model to demonstrate that technology sanctions can lead to unintended economic consequences when targeting countries with substantial technology stocks. Rather than hindering the sanctioned country's technological progress, sanctions may facilitate the emerge of high-productivity domestic firms that outpace international competitors, ultimately boosting the sanctioned country's overall productivity. Our empirical analysis, using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, reveals that when a sanctioned country's technology stock reaches approximately 75 % of the sanctioning country's level, the negative impact of sanctions diminishes, potentially resulting in counterproductive outcomes. Additionally, countries with larger populations demonstrate greater resilience to technology sanctions.","wordCount":101,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yue Li","Zheng Xiaoxue","Chu‐Ping Lo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102458","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6cc0b42bc36fea5f","title":"Legal Empowerment and Social Accountability: Complementary Strategies Toward Rights-based Development in Health?","abstract":"Citizen-based accountability strategies to improve the lives of the poor and marginalized groups are increasingly being used in efforts to improve basic public services. The latest thinking suggests that broader, multi-pronged, multi-level, strategic approaches that may overcome the limitations of narrow, localized successes, hold more promise. This paper examines the challenges and opportunities, in theory and practice, posed by the integration of two such citizen-based accountability strategies—social accountability and legal empowerment. It traces the foundations of each of these approaches to highlight the potential benefits of integration. Consequently it examines whether these benefits have been realized in practice, by drawing upon five cases of organizations pursuing integration of social accountability and legal empowerment for health accountability in Macedonia, Guatemala, Uganda, and India. The cases highlight that while integration offers some promise in advancing the cause of social change, it also poses challenges for organizations in terms of strategies they pursue.","wordCount":150,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Anuradha Joshi"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.07.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6ccc72afecba56b9","title":"Accounting for the profits of multinational enterprises: Double counting and misattribution of foreign affiliate income","abstract":"To guide international tax policy, researchers must measure both the distribution of MNE income across jurisdictions, in a way that faithfully represents where the income was generated, and the rate of tax paid by the MNEs on their income in each different jurisdiction. The accounting methods used to report MNE activity affect the measurement of each of these constructs. The measurement issues we document impact to various degrees all MNE data that are disaggregated by jurisdiction. Overlooking the accounting conventions that guide MNE data can result in two kinds of mismeasurement – duplicative counting of income and misattribution of income. The first error – duplicative or “double” counting – arises when a researcher counts the same dollar of MNE income more than once by including it in two or more different jurisdictions. The second error – misattribution – arises when a researcher fails to recognize a dollar of MNE income in the jurisdiction where it was earned. The accounting issues we highlight in this paper affect estimates of the aggregate profits of MNEs, measurement of effective tax rates, the amount of revenue losses governments experience due to profit shifting, as well as estimates of the sensitivity or semi-elasticity of income to taxes. For example, an influential study published just prior to the passage of the 2017 U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act estimated that between $77 and $111 billion dollars in U.S. revenue was being lost to profit shifting each year. When we reexamine that study ( Clausing 2016 ), correcting for double counting and misattributed MNE income, while otherwise holding constant the study’s methodology, this estimate drops to $11 billion a year. Given the perception that multinational enterprises (MNEs) engage in extensive tax planning, ending base erosion and profit shifting activity is a priority on many national agendas. Yet the actual level of such activity is subject to debate. In this paper, we provide guidance on how to accurately measure country-level MNE income using the datasets commonly used in research on profit shifting. This issue is of global concern, as any economic data that reports profits by jurisdiction must use an established accounting method to report the activity of the MNEs’ indirectly owned foreign affiliates. We explain how the accounting method could lead a researcher to double count income or to attribute it to the wrong jurisdiction. Such errors not only affect measures of the MNEs’ country-level profits, but also bias researchers’ estimates of the sensitivity of income to taxes. Although we focus our analysis on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), we illustrate the consequences of such mismeasurement across a variety of studies relying on a variety of data sources.","wordCount":445,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Jennifer Blouin","Leslie A. Robinson"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105512","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6ccfd1334b3a8f38","title":"The groupwise-pivotal referral auction: Core-selecting referral strategy-proof mechanism","abstract":"We introduce the groupwise-pivotal referral (GPR) mechanism for auctions where buyers can participate through referrals. Each buyer's type consists of a valuation and referable buyers. Unlike the second-price auction (SPA), the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism provides referral incentives. However, VCG is not budget-feasible. In contrast, under complete information, GPR is core-selecting, implying efficiency and budget feasibility. Under incomplete information, bidders refer truthfully and have no incentive to underbid in GPR. Furthermore, GPR's ex-post revenue outperforms both VCG and SPA, not just in equilibrium but also when bidders do not use weakly dominated strategies.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Seungwon Jeong","Joosung Lee"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.11.012","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6cd65703d418beca","title":"Ready for Boarding? The Effects of a Boarding School for Disadvantaged Students","abstract":"Boarding schools substitute school to home, but little is known on the effects this substitution produces on students. We present results of an experiment in which seats in a boarding school for disadvantaged students were randomly allocated. Boarders enjoy better studying conditions than control students. However, they start outperforming control students in mathematics only two years after admission, and this effect mostly comes from strong students. Boarders initially experience lower levels of well-being but then adjust. This suggests that substituting school to home is disruptive: only strong students benefit from the school, once they have adapted to their new environment.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Luc Behaghel","Clément de Chaisemartin","Marc Gurgand"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150090","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6ce21e7b921c2eec","title":"Combining the MGHyp distribution with nonlinear shrinkage in modeling financial asset returns","abstract":"The present paper combines nonlinear shrinkage with the multivariate generalized hyperbolic (MGHyp) distribution, thereby extending a flexible parametric model to high dimensions. An expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm is developed that is fast, stable, and applicable in high dimensions. Theoretical arguments for the monotonicity of the proposed algorithm are provided and it is shown in simulations that it is able to accurately retrieve parameter estimates. Finally, in an extensive Markowitz portfolio optimization analysis, the approach is compared to state-of-the-art benchmark models. The proposed model excels with a strong out-of-sample portfolio performance combined with a comparably low turnover.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Simon Hediger","Jeffrey Näf"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101489","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6ce4a5822dd51ca0","title":"Social Ties and Favoritism in Chinese Science","abstract":"We study favoritism via hometown ties, a common source of favor exchange in China, in fellow selection of the Chinese Academies of Sciences and Engineering. Hometown ties to fellow selection committee members increase candidates’ election probability by 39 percent, coming entirely from the selection stage involving an in-person meeting. Elected hometown-connected candidates are half as likely to have a high-impact publication as elected fellows without connections. CAS/CAE membership increases the probability of university leadership appointments and is associated with a US$9.5 million increase in annual funding for fellows’ institutions, indicating that hometown favoritism has potentially large effects on resource allocation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Raymond Fisman","Jing Shi","Yongxiang Wang","Rong Xu"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/697086","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6cefe85a5e5a37c9","title":"It runs in the family – Influenza vaccination and spillover effects","abstract":"We study a population-based influenza vaccination program in the Netherlands, and the spillovers it has within families. Individuals aged 65 years and over qualify for the program and receive a personal invitation for a free flu shot, while ineligible individuals have to pay out-of-pocket and face additional barriers to getting vaccinated. The quasi-random variation at age 65 is exploited to analyse program impact on vaccination behavior of cohabiting partners and adult children. We find that the program induced a 10 percentage points increase in vaccination coverage among individuals at age 65. The program further led to a similar effect on vaccination take-up by cohabiting younger partners, but spillovers on children were negative. These asymmetric patterns of vaccination uptake are consistent with partners and children learning about influenza mortality risk, target group membership, and cost and benefits of vaccination, as well as salience. We conclude that public health campaigns should pay attention to the effects on voluntary preventive care participation as within-family spillovers impact the program's overall public health impact.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Nicolas Bouckaert","Anne C. Gielen","Tom Van Ourti"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102386","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6cf0e0d970d7c89a","title":"Circular, Green, and Bio Economy: How Do Companies in Land-Use Intensive Sectors Align with Sustainability Concepts?","abstract":"The UN Agenda 2030 deems the private sector pivotal in co-governing sustainability issues. Despite intense research on corporate sustainability there is no explicit analysis of which policy-driven concepts companies choose to forward their sustainability visions and practices. This is relevant because communication of corporate sustainability contributes to legitimizing or delegitimizing company actions, while simultaneously feeding back into public thinking and actions towards sustainability transformations. We addressed the research gap by considering three sustainability concepts mainstreamed at the global level: Circular economy (CE), Green economy (GE), and Bioeconomy (BE). Content analysis was performed on 123 reports from DJSI World companies in five land-use intensive sectors (forest, food, beverages, mining, and energy). Results suggest CE to be omnipresent and homogeneous across all companies and sectors. GE was the second most frequent concept, especially in forest and mining. BE was under-represented in all reports, with the exception of the forest sector. Interlinkages between concepts were few. The CE-BE connection appeared to be the strongest, concerning efficiency and recycling of bio-based resources. The analysis of global sustainability concepts from the perspective of corporate disclosure enables a timely discussion on the role and limits of the business organizations as a participant to sustainability transformations globally.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Dalia D’Amato","Jaana Korhonen","Anne Toppinen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.026","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6cfecfb1a5e9ecc7","title":"Information avoidance, selective exposure, and fake (?) news: Theory and experimental evidence on green consumption","abstract":"We investigate self-serving information avoidance by consumers when revelation is stochastic and the revealed information is potentially erroneous. Our formal considerations based on a cognitive dissonance model suggest that the size of the price difference between product options determines if information avoidance arises. This prediction is supported by our laboratory experiment, in which subjects purchase products associated with co-benefits implemented as contributions to climate change mitigation. In seven treatments, we alter the information structure as well as the perceived revelation costs. We find robust evidence of self-serving information avoidance in treatments with simple stochastic revelation and reduced reliability of information, representing potential ‘fake’ news. The propensity to avoid information increases with the introduction of merely nominal information costs. In contrast to previous studies, we conclude that self-serving information avoidance can arise in consumption, which could also explain the persistent demand for products associated with ‘green-washing’.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Katharina Momsen","Markus Ohndorf"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102457","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6d071a712bdf972c","title":"Can cryptocurrencies be a safe haven: a tail risk perspective analysis","abstract":"Cryptocurrencies are one of the most promising financial innovations of the last decade. Different from major stock indices and the commodities of gold and crude oil, the cryptocurrencies exhibit some characteristics of immature market assets, such as auto-correlated and non-stationary return series, higher volatility, and higher tail risks measured by conditional Value at Risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES). Using an extreme-value-theory-based method, we evaluate the extreme characteristics of seven representative cryptocurrencies during 08 August 2015–01 August 2017. We find that during the sub-period of 01 August 2016–01 August 2017, there are finite loss boundaries for most of the selected cryptocurrencies, which are similar to the commodities, and different from the stock indices. Meanwhile, we find that left tail correlations are much stronger than right tail correlations among the cryptocurrencies, and tail correlations increased after August 2016, suggesting high and growing systematic extreme risks. We also find that cryptocurrencies to be both left tail independent, and cross tail independent with four selected stock indices, which implies part of the safe-haven function of the cryptocurrencies, indicating their ability to be a great diversifier for the stock market as gold, but not enough to be a tail hedging tool like gold.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Wenjun Feng","Yiming Wang","Zhengjun Zhang"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1466993","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6d0b6f7c9747f597","title":"Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions","abstract":"We examine how inflation targeting (IT) and fiscal rules (FR) affect inflation and fiscal performance in a large panel of countries during 1990–2009. In line with theory, both FR and IT appear to shape monetary and fiscal outcomes. Significant cross‐effects seem to exist as IT strengthens fiscal performance, whereas the combination of FR and IT tends to be associated with more disciplined macroeconomic policies than if only one of these institutions operates. Our findings suggest that IT and FR affect the coordination of the policy mix, and point to potential benefits of reforming macroeconomic frameworks in a holistic fashion.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Jean‐Louis Combes","Xavier Debrun","Alexandru Minea","René Tapsoba"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12538","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6d229834d5cf73b8","title":"Water scarcity and local economic activity: Spatial spillovers and the role of irrigation","abstract":"This paper explores the spatial spillover effects of water scarcity on local economic activity and examines the role of irrigation in modulating these effects. Utilizing a newly assembled global geospatial data set that combines information on seasonal water availability and economic activity measured by nighttime luminosity, I conduct a spatial econometric analysis at the granular level of 0.25° × 0.25° grid cells worldwide. My results reveal that agricultural water scarcity in rainfed grid cells has negative spatial spillover effects on economic activity, extending up to 300 kilometers away. However, the presence of irrigation infrastructure effectively mitigates both the direct negative impacts and the negative spatial spillover effects of agricultural water scarcity on economic activity. These results suggest that the benefits of certain climate adaptation measures may not be confined locally, but are observable at a larger scale. This paper emphasizes the importance of considering spatial dynamics and irrigation in understanding the effects of water scarcity on economic activity, providing valuable insights for water resource management policies targeted at promoting climate-resilient development.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Alexander Marbler"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102931","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6d2c32e963429da1","title":"The COVID Cash Transfer Study: The Impacts of a One‐Time Unconditional Cash Transfer on the Well‐Being of Families Receiving SNAP in Twelve States","abstract":"There is growing interest in the use of unconditional cash transfers as a means to alleviate poverty, yet little is known about the effects of such transfers in the U.S. This paper reports on the results of a randomized controlled study of a one‐time $1,000 unconditional cash transfer in May 2020 to families with low incomes in 12 U.S. states. The families were receiving, or had recently received, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. We examine the impact of the cash transfer on five pre‐registered outcomes (material hardship, mental health, parenting, child behavior, partner relationships) and several secondary outcomes (hardship avoidance, consumption, employment, benefit use). We find no statistically significant effects (powered to detect effects of 0.09 standard deviations) of the cash transfer on any outcomes for the full sample. In pre‐specified exploratory analyses, we find significant reductions in material hardship (‐0.17 standard deviations) among families with less than $500 of earnings in the previous month, roughly the bottom 50 percent of monthly earnings for the study sample.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Natasha Pilkauskas","Brian Jacob","Elizabeth Rhodes","Katherine Richard","H. Luke Shaefer"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22464","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6d2f092ad7227a37","title":"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment","abstract":"“Ban the Box” (BTB) policies restrict employers from asking about applicants’ criminal histories on job applications and are often presented as a means of reducing unemployment among black men, who disproportionately have criminal records. However, withholding information about criminal records could risk encouraging racial discrimination: employers may make assumptions about criminality based on the applicant's race. To investigate BTB’s effects, we sent approximately 15,000 online job applications on behalf of fictitious young, male applicants to employers in New Jersey and New York City before and after the adoption of BTB policies. These applications varied whether the applicant had a distinctly black or distinctly white name and the felony conviction status of the applicant. We confirm that criminal records are a major barrier to employment: employers that asked about criminal records were 63% more likely to call applicants with no record. However, our results support the concern that BTB policies encourage racial discrimination: the black-white gap in callbacks grew dramatically at companies that removed the box after the policy went into effect. Before BTB, white applicants to employers with the box received 7% more callbacks than similar black applicants, but BTB increased this gap to 43%. We believe that the best interpretation of these results is that employers are relying on exaggerated impressions of real-world racial differences in felony conviction rates.","wordCount":220,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Amanda Agan","Sonja B. Starr"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6d3169115e638d29","title":"Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers","abstract":"We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and remains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical work. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy literature, along with replications, are vulnerable to the bias. Upon correcting for the bias we find that the long-standing conclusions of the canonical study are reversed.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Joshua B. Miller","Adam Sanjurjo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14943","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-6d360bcd9e2a969a","title":"Leniency Inflation, Cartel Damages, and Criminalization","abstract":"We revisit the pros and cons of introducing cartel criminalization in the EU. We document the recent EU “leniency inflation”, whereby leniency has been increasingly awarded to many (or all) cartel members, which softens the “courthouse race” effect. Coupled with the insufficient protection of leniency applicants from damages (2014 Damages Directive), it may have led to a decrease in leniency applications and cartel convictions. Given the current level of fines, criminalization may have to be introduced. We then explore US criminal sanctions (1990–2015) to highlight potential areas of concern for EU policymakers, of which recidivism appears to be a significant one.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Catarina Marvão","Giancarlo Spagnolo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09920-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6d58260eca2906f0","title":"Incentives, project choice, and dynamic multitasking","abstract":"I study the optimal choice of projects in a continuous‐time moral hazard model with multitasking. I characterize the distortions caused by moral hazard and the dynamics of the firm's project choice. Both overinvestment and underinvestment relative to a net present value (NPV) criterion can occur on the path of the contract. As past performance increases, the firm chooses projects that require higher pay–performance sensitivity. When the continuation value is large, investment projects are chosen more efficiently, and project choice depends more on the NPV and less on the incentive costs. I implement the optimal contract with an equity stake, bonus payments, and a personal account.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Martin Szydlowski"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2858","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6d5b1cc9f2908fd7","title":"Approximating the Cost-of-Living Index for a Storable Good","abstract":"This paper estimates a cost-of-living index using a dynamic structural model for two storable product categories. In each category, regime shifts to higher or lower retail prices are observed. Fixed-base indexes do a poor job of capturing changes in welfare after a regime shift, and deviate from the dynamic index by as much as 300 percent. I evaluate the extent to which two recently proposed indexes can approximate the model-derived index. These indexes improve welfare measurement and are straightforward to compute. The category’s competitive structure and features of the regime shift determine which of the two provides a better approximation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Matthew Osborne"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140254","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6d5db5e36bf7cfe5","title":"Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach","abstract":"We recast the Aiyagari–Bewley–Huggett model of income and wealth distribution in continuous time. This workhorse model—as well as heterogeneous agent models more generally—then boils down to a system of partial differential equations, a fact we take advantage of to make two types of contributions. First, a number of new theoretical results: (1) an analytic characterization of the consumption and saving behaviour of the poor, particularly their marginal propensities to consume; (2) a closed-form solution for the wealth distribution in a special case with two income types; (3) a proof that there is a unique stationary equilibrium if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is weakly greater than one. Second, we develop a simple, efficient and portable algorithm for numerically solving for equilibria in a wide class of heterogeneous agent models, including—but not limited to—the Aiyagari–Bewley–Huggett model.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Yves Achdou","Jiequn Han","Jean‐Michel Lasry","Pierre-Louis Lions","Benjamin Moll"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6d64b11e300d4044","title":"The pass-through of uncertainty shocks to households","abstract":"Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. Increased firm-level uncertainty reduces total compensation, especially variable pay, and workers reduce their durable goods consumption in response. Such shocks also lead to greater financial fragility among lower-income earners. Constructing a new county-level uncertainty shock, we find that local uncertainty shocks reduce county-level durable consumption. Taken together, these findings show that uncertainty shocks can significantly affect local economic activity through households’ consumption and savings decisions.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Marco Di Maggio","Amir Kermani","Rodney Ramcharan","Vincent Yao","Edison G. Yu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.03.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6d64c2b111fa00bb","title":"Intergenerational Wealth Mobility and the Role of Inheritance: Evidence from Multiple Generations","abstract":"This study estimates intergenerational wealth correlations across up to four generations and examines the degree to which the wealth association between parents and children can be explained by inheritances. Using a Swedish data set with newly hand‐collected data on wealth and bequests, we find parent‐child rank correlations of 0.3–0.4 and grandparent–grandchild rank correlations of 0.1–0.2. Bequests and gifts appear to be central in this process, accounting for at least half of the parent–child wealth correlation while earnings and education can account for only a quarter.","wordCount":85,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Adrian Adermon","Mikael Lindahl","Daniel Waldenström"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12535","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6d7b9a0b0d48305d","title":"Information Frictions, Internet, and the Relationship between Distance and Trade","abstract":"We examine how the adoption of information communication technology affects bilateral trade. The context is a public program in Norway that rolled out broadband access points leading to plausibly exogenous variation in the availability and adoption of broadband by firms. We find that broadband makes trade patterns more sensitive to distance and economic size. These results are consistent with a model of trade with variable elasticity of demand. The model predicts that adoption of a technology that lowers information frictions enlarges the choice set of exporters and importers. This makes demand more elastic with respect to trade costs and thus distance.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Anders Åkerman","Edwin Leuven","Magne Mogstad"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190589","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6d8579c0765d5c9c","title":"Public governance versus corporate governance: Evidence from oil drilling in forests","abstract":"Petroleum companies look for oil and gas in some of the most remote and biodiverse forested areas on the planet. To study how local environmental footprints vary across countries and companies, we combine global company-level geo-coded data on oil drilling with high resolution data on forest loss. We find that oil wells drilled in countries with better public governance, measured by democracy scores, are associated with substantially lower forest loss in the period after drilling. In contrast, we do not find evidence of less forest clearance among companies with presumptively ‘better’ corporate governance practices, such as major international companies, publicly listed companies, or members of an industry association committed to high environmental standards. These results do not support a “pollution halo” effect, whereby companies might bring better environmental practices with them, exceeding domestic environmental standards.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["James Cust","Torfinn Harding","Hanna Krings","Alexis Rivera-Ballesteros"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103070","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6d9dbec80b4a51ca","title":"Adaptation to an irrigation water restriction imposed through local governance","abstract":"We estimate how farmers adapted to a water restriction imposed through local governance. The restriction imposed a uniform quota on water use with a 5-year allocation and allowed trading of the quota within the restricted area. Our analysis exploits unique micro-level data on irrigated water use, irrigated acreage, and crops. We use a difference-in-differences econometric strategy that also includes farmer-time fixed effects to estimate the response to the restriction, where we exploit water rights between 2 and 5 miles of the policy boundary as a control group. Results indicate that farmers reduced water use by 26% due to the policy with most of the response due to reductions in water use intensity on the same crops rather than through reductions in irrigated acreage or changes in crops. The results imply that the short-run welfare impact of the policy was smaller than a policy that reduces irrigated acreage.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Krystal M. Drysdale","Nathan Hendricks"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.08.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6da5172b64653cf2","title":"JUE insight: Efficiency of bus priority infrastructure","abstract":"We use bus GPS data across 500 routes to estimate the impact of priority infrastructure on buses’ speed and ridership in Chile. Almost 100 million bus trips allow us to leverage within-route variation in the proportion of the route in which buses travel along bus lanes or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridors. Corridors increase bus speeds by 20% at peak hours. Bus lanes, often seen as an equally effective but cheaper alternative to a BRT corridor, are, on average, ineffective. However, bus lanes achieve the same travel time savings as BRT corridors only when fully isolated from private vehicles, coupled with monitoring cameras and enforcement.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Felipe González","Hugo E. Silva"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103751","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6daf79a8ad1a7d92","title":"Is Information Power? Using Mobile Phones and Free Newspapers during an Election in Mozambique","abstract":"African elections often reveal low levels of political accountability. We assess different forms of voter education during an election in Mozambique. Three interventions providing information to voters and calling for their participation were randomized: an information campaign using SMS, an SMS hotline for electoral misconduct, and the distribution of a free newspaper. To measure impact, we look at official electoral results, reports by electoral observers, and behavioral and survey data. We find positive effects of all treatments on voter turnout. However, only the distribution of the free newspaper led to more accountability-based participation and to a decrease in electoral problems.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Jenny C. Aker","Paul Collier","Pedro C. Vicente"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00611","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6db3e82a5b98e64c","title":"Measuring the effects of segregation in the presence of social spillovers: A nonparametric approach","abstract":"In this paper we nonparametrically analyze the effects of reallocating individuals across social groups in the presence of social spillovers. Individuals are either 'high' or 'low' types. Own outcomes may vary with the fraction of high types in one's social group. We characterize the average outcome and inequality effects of small increases in segregation by type. We also provide a measure of average spillover strength. We generalize the setup used by Benabou (1996) and others to study sorting in the presence of social spillovers by incorporating unobserved individual- and group-level heterogeneity. We relate our reallocation estimands to this theory. For each estimand we provide conditions for nonparametric identification, propose estimators, and characterize their large sample properties. We also consider the social planner's problem. We illustrate our approach by studying the effects of sex segregation in classrooms on mathematics achievement.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Bryan S. Graham","Guido W. Imbens","Geert Ridder"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6db7e2adb7eb1b31","title":"Discount pricing","abstract":"We investigate the practice of framing a price as a discount from an earlier price, with information such as “was $200, now $100.” We discuss two reasons why a discounted price—rather than a merely low price—can make a consumer more willing to purchase. First, a high initial price can indicate the seller has chosen to supply a high‐quality product. Second, when a seller with limited stock runs a clearance sale, later consumers infer that unsold stock has higher expected quality when its initial price was higher. We also suggest a behavioral explanation, which is that consumers with reference‐dependence preferences are more likely to buy if they perceive the price as a bargain relative to the earlier price. Discount pricing is therefore an effective marketing technique, and a seller may wish to deceive potential customers by offering a false discount. The welfare effects of regulation to prevent fictitious pricing are subtle, with potential unintended consequences, and depend on whether consumers are sophisticated or naive.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Mark Armstrong","Yongmin Chen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12774","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6dc2e40ec95491a4","title":"Too old to plan? Age identity and financial planning among the older population of China","abstract":"We study how age identity (measured by the difference between chronological age and perceived old age), influences financial planning among the older population (60+) in China. Using data from three waves of the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey, we show that individuals who feel younger have a significantly higher probability of making financial plans. That such an effect exists in sub-samples divided by age and retirement status implies the relevance of financial planning even for individuals with advanced ages. It is consistent with the hypothesis that old individuals who feel younger have higher perceived cognitive abilities and hence higher motivation to make financial plans. However, an unfavorable perception of social aging culture moderates such a positive effect. Age identity can further impact the downstream economic behaviors of saving and investing, either directly or indirectly, through financial planning. Finally, a younger age identity also increases an individual's willingness to internalize the responsibility of eldercare. Our findings imply that it is important to consider individuals' age identity when crafting and implementing old-age policies.","wordCount":171,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Zihan Ye","Xiaopeng Zou","Thomas Post","Weiqiao Mo","Qianqian Yang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101770","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6dc7edc51ba271f4","title":"Digital pathways to resilience: Assessing the impact of digitalization on agricultural production resilience in China","abstract":"Agricultural production, a cornerstone of human activity, is facing mounting challenges from instability and uncertainty. This study examines the impact of digitalization on the resilience of agricultural production in China, developing an innovative probabilistic framework able to assess agricultural resilience at the county level. The proposed model measures resilience as the likelihood of agricultural systems maintaining output above a defined baseline under uncertain conditions. Based on panel data of 1766 counties in China, this study reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship between digitalization and resilience. Specifically, whereas moderate digitalization enhances resilience, excessive digitalization introduces vulnerabilities. Mechanism analysis shows that digitalization drives rural income growth and optimizes factor utilization , but excessive digitalization widens income disparities and triggers resource outflows from agriculture . Results also show that new agricultural operating entities can mitigate the adverse effects of excessive digitalization by fostering collective action . These findings deepen our understanding of the complex mechanisms underlying agricultural digital transformation and offer practical insights for promoting resilience through balanced digitalization.","wordCount":165,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yuke Luo","Shiyuan Liu","Yang Zhang","Miao Zeng","Dandi Zhao"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102375","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6dcfd0146007c453","title":"Beyond ecosystem services and nature's contributions: Is it time to leave utilitarian environmentalism behind?","abstract":"The Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) approach, developed as theoretical backdrop for the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), aims to provide a more inclusive discourse in sustainability science, while addressing some of the limitations of the ecosystem services (ES) framework. Some critical initial reactions to the NCP approach have revolved around the costs of departing from the ES concept, after its hard-won influence in science and policy. In this paper we argue that the main fault of the NCP approach is precisely the opposite. Namely, to claim to be nurturing a paradigm shift while perpetuating, under a new jargon, the most problematic tenets of the ES framework and utilitarian environmentalism in general. These include a dualistic, anthropocentric and utilitarian representation of human-nature relationships, which, we argue, are among the ultimate reasons behind the global environmental crisis. We propose a departure from the prevailing ontological conception, moral framing and legal coding of human-nature relationships. Specifically, a shift from a morality of utility to a morality of care, a reallocation of property rights, and the extension of the community of justice to non-human entities.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Roldán Muradian","Erik Gómez‐Baggethun"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107038","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6dd066b626a36c13","title":"The effect of e‐cigarette taxes on pre‐pregnancy and prenatal smoking","abstract":"E-cigarette taxes are an active area of legislation and have important regulatory implications by proxying e-cigarette accessibility. We examine the effect of e-cigarette taxes on prepregnancy and prenatal smoking using the near-universe of births to mothers conceiving between 2013 and 2019 in the United States. Using fixed effect regressions, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase prepregnancy and prenatal smoking. We also find evidence that e-cigarette taxes reduce prepregnancy and 3rd trimester e-cigarette use. Finally, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase news coverage of e-cigarettes and raise perceptions of risk of e-cigarettes.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Rahi Abouk","Scott Adams","Bo Feng","Johanna Catherine Maclean","Michael F. Pesko"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22485","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6dd8db536054d4de","title":"Capital Buffers in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics","abstract":"We develop a model of banking industry dynamics to study the quantitative impact of regulatory policies on bank risk‐taking and market structure. Since our model is matched to U.S. data, we propose a market structure where big banks with market power interact with small, competitive fringe banks as well as non‐bank lenders. Banks face idiosyncratic funding shocks in addition to aggregate shocks which affect the fraction of performing loans in their portfolio. A nontrivial bank size distribution arises out of endogenous entry and exit, as well as banks' buffer stock of capital. We show that the model predictions are consistent with untargeted business cycle properties, the bank lending channel, and empirical studies of the role of concentration on financial stability. We find that regulatory policies can have an important impact on banking market structure, which, along with selection effects, can generate changes in allocative efficiency and stability.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Dean Corbae","Pablo D’Erasmo"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16930","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6ddf0ff1ee5d3c49","title":"Sexual identity, gender, and anticipated discrimination in prosocial behavior","abstract":"We study whether individuals strategically mask signals about their affinity with the LGBTQ+ community in response to anticipated discrimination in prosocial behavior. We use a sharing (dictator) game in an online experiment where recipients are given the opportunity to signal their LGBTQ+ affinity. Decision-makers, upon observing these signals, decide how much of their endowment to share with their matched recipients. Overall, there is a decrease (although statistically insignificant) in the proportions of recipients who signal their affinity with the LGBTQ+ community when they are informed that these signals will be revealed to decision-makers. Importantly, we find a gender difference: women are more likely to hide such signals given information about how the signals will be used. Auxiliary analysis suggests that this gender difference is likely due to women’s higher propensity to anticipate discrimination. Moreover, we find that decision-makers do not differ in their treatment of individuals based on signals of their LGBTQ+ affinity. However, the intersection between decision-makers’ perceptions of these signals, and both their political stance on social issues and their views about LGBTQ+ rights, matter in shaping their sharing behavior.","wordCount":182,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Billur Aksoy","Ian Chadd","Boon Han Koh"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104427","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6df1f11187d28068","title":"Making carbon taxation a generational win win","abstract":"Carbon taxation is mostly studied in social planner or infinitely lived‐agent models, which obscure carbon taxation's potential to produce a generational win win. This article's large‐scale, dynamic 55‐period, overlapping generations model calculates the carbon tax policy delivering the highest uniform welfare gain to all current and future generations. Our model features coal, oil, and gas, increasing extraction costs, clean energy, technical and demographic change, and Nordhaus' carbon/temperature/damage functions. Assuming high‐end carbon damages, the optimal carbon tax is $70, rising annually at 1.5%. This policy raises all generations' welfare by almost 5%. However, doing so requires major intergenerational redistribution.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Laurence J. Kotlikoff","Felix Kübler","Andrey Polbin","Jeffrey Sachs","Simon Scheidegger"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12483","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6df97ca75a5b04de","title":"Stock Market Returns and Consumption","abstract":"This paper employs Swedish data on households' stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns. We instrument the actual capital gains and dividend payments with past portfolio weights. Unrealized capital gains lead to a marginal propensity to consume of 23% for the bottom 50% of the wealth distribution and about 3% for the top 30% of the wealth distribution. Household consumption is significantly more responsive to dividend payouts across all parts of the wealth distribution. Our findings are consistent with households treating capital gains and dividends as separate sources of income.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Marco Di Maggio","Amir Kermani","Kaveh Majlesi"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12968","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6dfc2bc30c6eafa6","title":"Consequences of the Clean Water Act and the Demand for Water Quality","abstract":"Since the 1972 U.S. Clean Water Act, government and industry have invested over $1 trillion to abate water pollution, or $100 per person-year. Over half of U.S. stream and river miles, however, still violate pollution standards. We use the most comprehensive set of files ever compiled on water pollution and its determinants, including 50 million pollution readings from 170,000 monitoring sites, to study water pollution's trends, causes, and welfare consequences. We have three main findings. First, water pollution concentrations have fallen substantially since 1972, though were declining at faster rates before then. Second, the Clean Water Act's grants to municipal wastewater treatment plants caused some of these declines. Third, the grants' estimated effects on housing values are generally smaller than the grants' costs.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David A. Keiser","Joseph Shapiro"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e04e53b41ba8d8d","title":"Delegation and coordination with multiple threshold public goods: experimental evidence","abstract":"When multiple charities, social programs and community projects simultaneously vie for funding, donors risk mis-coordinating their contributions leading to an inefficient distribution of funding across projects. Community chests and other intermediary organizations facilitate coordination among donors and reduce such risks. To study this, we extend a threshold public goods framework to allow donors to contribute through an intermediary rather than directly to the public goods. Through a series of experiments, we show that the presence of an intermediary increases public good success and subjects’ earnings only when the intermediary is formally committed to direct donations to socially beneficial goods. Without such a restriction, the presence of an intermediary has a negative impact, complicating the donation environment, decreasing contributions and public good success.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Luca Corazzini","Christopher Cotton","Tommaso Reggiani"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09639-6","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e054da69c741421","title":"Comparing Inference Approaches for RD Designs: A Reexamination of the Effect of Head Start on Child Mortality","abstract":"The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular quasi-experimental design for causal inference and policy evaluation. The most common inference approaches in RD designs employ “flexible” parametric and nonparametric local polynomial methods, which rely on extrapolation and large-sample approximations of conditional expectations using observations somewhat near the cutoff that determines treatment assignment. An alternative inference approach employs the idea of local randomization, where the very few units closest to the cutoff are regarded as randomly assigned to treatment and finite-sample exact inference methods are used. In this paper, we contrast these approaches empirically by re-analyzing the influential findings of Ludwig and Miller (2007), who studied the effect of Head Start assistance on child mortality employing parametric RD methods. We first review methods based on approximations of conditional expectations, which are relatively well developed in the literature, and then present new methods based on randomization inference. In particular, we extend the local randomization framework to allow for parametric adjustments of the potential outcomes; our extended framework substantially relaxes strong assumptions in prior literature and better resembles other RD inference methods. We compare all these methods formally, focusing on both estimands and inference properties. In addition, we develop new approaches for randomization-based sensitivity analysis specifically tailored to RD designs. Applying all these methods to the Head Start data, we find that the original RD treatment effect reported in the literature is quite stable and robust, an empirical finding that enhances the credibility of the original result. All the empirical methods we discuss are readily available in general purpose software in R and Stata; we also provide the dataset and software code needed to replicate all our results.","wordCount":275,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Matias D. Cattaneo","Rocío Titiunik","Gonzalo Vázquez-Baré"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21985","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e074e3faa613c87","title":"Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries","abstract":"We investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Jan Jacobs","Kazuo Ogawa","Elmer Sterken","Ichiro Tokutsu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1673301","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6e07af22dc5a5917","title":"The People’s Perspective on Libertarian-Paternalistic Policies","abstract":"We examine the views toward libertarian-paternalistic (soft) governmental interventions in a series of online experiments conducted in three countries. We use both standard and new methods to elicit attitudes toward soft interventions in various hypothetical scenarios. The majority of the participants accept these types of interventions by the government. However, a substantial proportion opposes them and would prefer that the government simply provide information to help the public make the right choice rather than use a more effective choice architecture intervention. Some even refuse to make the choice that the government promotes, although they would have done so in the absence of the intervention. The opposition to soft interventions appears to be driven by concerns about manipulation and the fear of a slippery slope to nonconsensual interventions. Opposition to soft interventions is reduced when they are implemented by employers rather than the government.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Ayala Arad","Ariel Rubinstein"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/698608","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e2ac09e6ebc361d","title":"How the German crisis of 1931 swept across Europe: a comparative view from Stockholm","abstract":"According to conventional wisdom, the fall of the Swedish currency in September 1931 was caused by the sterling crisis. This article shows that the road towards devaluation began earlier and that financial linkages with Germany proved to be more important than Sweden's economic and monetary relations with Great Britain. It all started in late 1929 when the Swedish financier Ivar Kreuger gave a loan to the German government in exchange for the match monopoly, thus tying his business ventures to Germany's solvency. In addition, a part of this loan was financed by large US dollar credits from the two largest Swedish banks that, in turn, accumulated a sizeable foreign short‐term deficit. When in June 1931 the German fiscal crisis began to escalate, international investors ceased to consider Sweden a safe haven because they knew about the linkages between the German government, Kreuger, and the Swedish banking system. This downgrading, in combination with the foreign short‐term deficit of the banking sector, proved lethal for the reserve position of the Swedish central bank, once the international liquidity crisis in mid‐July 1931 erupted. The sterling crisis only put the final nail in the coffin.","wordCount":191,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Tobias Straumann","Peter Kügler","Florian Weber"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12334","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e3a5ad455a4a0ee","title":"Coordination and evolutionary dynamics: When are evolutionary models reliable?","abstract":"This study reports a continuous-time experimental test of evolutionary models in coordinated attacker–defender games. It implements three experimental treatment conditions: one with strong coordination incentives, one with weak coordination incentives, and one with zero coordination incentives. Each treatment exhibits identical equilibrium predictions but distinct evolutionary predictions. Observed behavior was tightly clustered around equilibrium under both the zero coordination treatment and the weak coordination treatment but widely dispersed from equilibrium under the strong coordination treatment. This result was anticipated by explicitly dynamic models but not by conventional stability criteria. In contrast to the widely maintained assumption of sign-preservation, subjects frequently switched to lower earning strategies, suggesting that non-sign-preserving evolutionary models may provide a more accurate characterization of human behavior.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Daniel Stephenson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2018.10.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6e3e40795d4921d7","title":"Valuing the ecosystem service benefits from kelp forest restoration: A choice experiment from Norway","abstract":"Habitat loss and degradation are recognised as the most important causes of species decline and extinction in marine ecosystems. It is also widely recognised that a range of restoration actions are now essential to halt further decline. From a policy perspective, demonstration that restoration activity is in the interest of society is an important goal. In this paper, the welfare impacts of restoring Norwegian kelp forests to areas where they once were dominant but which now lie barren are estimated using the discrete choice modelling approach. The paper also examines if more direct contact with the environmental good under investigation influences respondents' willingness to pay to restore ecosystem features. The results indicate a positive and significant marginal societal willingness to pay for the ecosystem services associated with kelp forest restoration. The enhanced biodiversity levels as a result of the restoration activity are the most highly valued by the Norwegian public although the size of the area restored is more highly valued by respondents who are active marine environment users. It is argued that without incorporating these non-market values into the decision making process marine policy decisions may be made that are not in fact in the best interest of society.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Stephen Hynes","Wenting Chen","Kofi Vondolia","Claire W. Armstrong","Eamonn O’Connor"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106833","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6e4871a8d13a52ae","title":"Are stablecoins the money market mutual funds of the future?","abstract":"FRB stablecoins with higher market capitalizations resemble MMFs more closely. This paper is the first to provide a comprehensive comparison of two financial instruments: stablecoins and money market mutual funds (MMFs). We observe similar reserve asset backing for fiat reserve backed (FRB) stablecoins and MMFs, similar importance of sponsor support, and the same negative association between macroeconomic indicators and peg deviations. Both instruments serve as short-term facilities for investors to park funds and their primary market microstructure is similar. However, FRB stablecoins exhibit larger dispersions from the dollar peg, significantly higher volatility, and a lack of transparency in their market infrastructure. Larger FRB stablecoins show reduced volatility compared to their smaller counterparts, with peg deviation drivers more closely resembling those of MMFs. We conclude that FRB stablecoins demonstrate remarkable similarities to MMFs and have the potential to become the MMFs of the future.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Nico Oefele","Dirk G. Baur","Lee A. Smales"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101557","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6e529ccff6e8001f","title":"Where Is the Middle Class? Evidence from 60 Million English Death and Probate Records, 1892–1992","abstract":"This article analyzes a newly constructed individual level dataset of every English death and probate from 1892–1992. This analysis shows that the twentieth century’s “Great Equalization” of wealth stalled in mid-century. The probate rate, which captures the proportion of English holding any significant wealth at death rose from 10 percent in the 1890s to 40 percent by 1950 and has stagnated to 1992. Despite the large declines in the wealth share of the top 1 percent, from 73 to 20 percent, the median English individual died with almost nothing throughout. All changes in inequality after 1950 involve a reshuffling of wealth within the top 30 percent. I translate the individual level data to synthetic households; the majority have at least one member probated. Yet the bottom 60 percent of households hold only 12 percent of all wealth, at their peak wealth-holding level, in the early 1990s. I also compare the new wealth data with existing estimates of top wealth shares, home-ownership trends, wealth survey distributions, aggregate wealth, and the wealth Gini coefficient.","wordCount":172,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Neil Cummins"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050721000164","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6e5729afd5b25c87","title":"The Gendered Nature of Ecosystem Services","abstract":"This article assesses the extent to which our conceptualisation, understanding and empirical analysis of ecosystem services are inherently gendered; in other words, how they might be biased and unbalanced in terms of their appreciation of gender differences. We do this by empirically investigating how women and men are able to benefit from ecosystem services across eight communities in coastal Kenya and Mozambique. Our results highlight different dimensions of wellbeing affected by ecosystem services, and how these are valued differently by men and women. However, it is not just the division of costs and benefits of ecosystem services that is gendered. Using a heuristic device of the ‘ecosystem-wellbeing chain’, we explain patterns within our primary data as an outcome of gendered knowledge systems, gendered behavioural expectations, gendered access to resources and gendered institutions. We conclude that this holistic, gendered understanding of ecosystem services is important not just for how ecosystem services are conceptualised, but also for the development and implementation of sustainable and equitable policy and interventions.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Matt Fortnam","Katrina Brown","Tomas Chaigneau","Beatrice Crona","Tim M. Daw","David Gonçalves","Christina C. Hicks","M. Revmatas","Chris Sandbrook","Björn Schulte‐Herbrüggen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6e6eca7c0aa43286","title":"The role of neighborhood characteristics in explaining political party residential segregation","abstract":"High levels of neighborhood political residential segregation have recently been documented for the U.S. This has raised concerns, based on the argument that more politically homogeneous neighborhoods promote extremism and ideological intensity, resulting in this same extremism displayed by elected politicians. Using tens of thousands of single-family home sales from South Florida, our purpose is to examine the extent to which neighborhood observable descriptors can explain party segregation. Our results reveal significant differences between Democrat and Republican home buyers in the types of neighborhoods they choose. In comparison to Democrats, Republicans more frequently chose neighborhoods where a larger percentage of workers have short commutes, homes are on average larger in size, there are fewer restaurants and shops, population density is lower, and Hispanics are a smaller percentage of residents. These differences are found to be important in explaining neighborhood party segregation.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Keith R. Ihlanfeldt","Cynthia Fan Yang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103992","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6e8c3c0094efc482","title":"A field experiment on attracting crowdfunders","abstract":"In a field experiment, we tracked whether crowdfunders clicked on a newsletter link to a new project and whether they invested. In terms of clicks, we find that crowdfunders overall respond most to an environmental framing, while older crowdfunders respond more to a financial framing than younger ones, and men respond less to a financial framing than women. There were no significant differences in terms of investments.","wordCount":67,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Lars Hornuf","Christoph Siemroth"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110928","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6e8e64a19ec2aec9","title":"Engel's Law in the Global Economy: Demand‐Induced Patterns of Structural Change, Innovation, and Trade","abstract":"Endogenous demand composition across sectors due to income elasticity differences, or Engel's Law for brevity, affects (i) sectoral compositions in employment and in value‐added, (ii) variations in innovation rates and in productivity change across sectors, (iii) intersectoral patterns of trade across countries, and (iv) product cycles from rich to poor countries. Using a two‐country model of directed technical change with a continuum of sectors under nonhomothetic preferences, which is rich enough to capture all these effects as well as their interactions, this paper offers a unifying perspective on how economic growth and globalization affect the patterns of structural change, innovation, and trade across countries and across sectors in the presence of Engel's Law. Among the main messages is that globalization amplifies, instead of reducing, the power of endogenous domestic demand composition differences as a driver of structural change.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Kiminori Matsuyama"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13765","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e93bdcfdde479ac","title":"Salience, Food Security, and SNAP Receipt","abstract":"Household food insecurity status in the United States is ascertained by a battery of close-ended questions. We posit that the monthly nature of benefit receipt from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) creates experiences of food hardship, which become salient in the context of SNAP receipt, and in turn exert influence on the response to food security questions. We test this hypothesis by examining answers to a 30-day food security module in relation to when SNAP benefits are received. We find that for SNAP households near the end of or at the beginning of the benefit month, the probability of being classified as food insecure increases by 11 percentage points, over a baseline of 42 percent. We also find that the probability of responding affirmatively to any of the first five items in the module increases during this time. We discuss the importance of these findings for the estimation of food security and its implication on program evaluation.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Christian Gregory","Travis A. Smith"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22093","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e9adc4c47d655e7","title":"Top Incomes in Germany, 1871–2014","abstract":"This study provides new evidence on top income shares in Germany from industrialization to the present. Income concentration was high in the nineteenth century, dropped sharply after WWI and during the hyperinflation years of the 1920s, then increased rapidly throughout the Nazi period beginning in the 1930s. Following the end of WWII, German top income shares returned to 1920s levels. The German pattern stands in contrast to developments in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, where WWII brought a sizeable and lasting reduction in top income shares. Since the turn of the millennium, income concentration in Germany has been on the rise and is today among the highest in Europe. The capital share is consistently positively associated with income concentration, whereas growth, technological change, trade, unions, and top tax rates are positively associated in some periods and negative in others.","wordCount":142,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Charlotte Bartels"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000378","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6e9ff8cb5d3a0813","title":"Regional variation of GDP per head within China, 1080–1850: Implications for the great divergence debate","abstract":"We examine regional variation in Chinese GDP per head for five benchmark years from the Song dynasty to the Qing. For the Ming and Qing dynasties, we provide a breakdown of regional GDP per head across seven macro regions, establishing that East Central China was the richest macro region. In addition, we provide data on the Yangzi Delta, the core of East Central China, widely seen as the richest part of China since 1400. Yangzi Delta GDP per head was 64 to 67 per cent higher than in China as a whole for three of the four Ming and Qing benchmarks, and 52 per cent higher during the late Ming. For the Northern Song dynasty, although it is not possible to derive a full regional breakdown, we provide data for Kaifeng Fu, the region containing the capital city as well as the Yangzi Delta. GDP per head in Kaifeng Fu was more than twice the level of China as a whole and higher than in the Yangzi Delta. Combined with aggregate data for GDP per head, these estimates suggest that China was the leading economy in the world during the Song dynasty and that the Great Divergence began around 1700 as the leading region of China fell decisively behind the leading region of Europe. They are also consistent with a shift in the economic centre of gravity from the north to the south between the Northern Song and Ming dynasties.","wordCount":240,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Stephen Broadberry","Hanhui Guan"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101753","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6ea507c3873ba047","title":"How do subnational governments react to shocks to different revenue sources? Evidence from hydrocarbon-producing provinces in Argentina","abstract":"Based on the fiscal regime that prevailed in Argentina from 1988 to 2003, we estimate the effects of changes in intergovernmental transfers and hydrocarbon royalties on provincial public consumption and debt. Whenever intergovernmental transfers increase, all provinces primarily increase public consumption and, to a lesser extent, decrease their debt. However, when hydrocarbon-producing provinces experienced an increase in royalties, they saved the entire increase. We provide evidence that the exhaustible nature of royalties may explain this saving reaction in hydrocarbon-producing provinces.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Martín Besfamille","Diego Jorrat","Osmel Manzano","Bernardo F. Quiroga","Pablo Sanguinetti"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103558","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6eac60a3c0429409","title":"Financial scarcity and cognitive performance: A meta-analysis","abstract":"Whereas several studies find that financial scarcity has a detrimental impact on cognitive functioning, some studies find no relationship and others even report beneficial effects. To shed light on this issue we conducted a meta-analysis on the relationship between financial scarcity and cognitive functioning. We went beyond testing the direct relationship between these two concepts and looked at potential moderators, namely education, the moment of scarcity, the severity of scarcity, the type of tasks used to assess cognitive functioning, and the type of study. Our findings suggest that scarcity does have a detrimental effect on cognitive functioning. Across 256 effect sizes from 29 datasets involving 111,852 respondents, we found a detrimental total effect of scarcity on cognitive performance of Hedge’s g = -0.43. We then estimated a meta-regression model of the drivers of the effect of scarcity on cognition. Education strongly explained this relationship, reducing the effect size by 60% (partial effect of scarcity on cognitive performance is Hedge’s g = -0.15, when accounting for education), to a small effect size. The moment and the severity of scarcity also contribute to this relationship, by moderating the effect, such that lifetime and adulthood scarcity have a larger effect than childhood scarcity, and more extreme levels of scarcity lead to higher cognitive dysfunction. The type of task used to assess cognitive functioning did not moderate the effect. And when controlling for education, higher effect sizes were found for non-correlational designs. We discuss these findings and their implications in light of existing research and theories.","wordCount":252,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Filipa de Almeida","Ian Scott","Jerônimo C. Soro","Daniel Fernandes","André R. Amaral","Mafalda L. Catarino","André Arêde","Mário B. Ferreira"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102702","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6ebdc405509223fe","title":"Long‐term trends in economic inequality: lessons from colonial Botswana, 1921–74","abstract":"This article contributes to the growing literature on colonial legacies influencing long‐term development. It focuses on Botswana, a case where the post‐independence diamond‐led economy has been considered an economic success story, despite its high levels of inequality. Here it is argued that this pathway of rapid resource‐driven growth combined with increasing socio‐economic inequality had already started during the time of the colonial cattle economy, and that this older case is equally relevant for understanding long‐term growth‐inequality trends in Botswana and other natural‐resource‐dependent economies. Six social tables, covering the period 1921 to 1974, are constructed using colonial archives, government statistics, and anthropological records. Based on the social tables, income inequality is estimated in the colonial and early post‐independence eras, capturing both the formal and informal sectors of the economy. The article demonstrates how the creation of a cattle export sector in the 1930s brought new opportunities to access export incomes, and how this led to a polarization in cattle holdings and increasing income inequalities. Further, with the expansion of colonial administration, government wages forged ahead, increasing income inequality and causing a growing income divide between public and private formal employment.","wordCount":189,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Jutta Bolt","Ellen Hillbom"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12326","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6ebf17a2511e9cad","title":"Positive Spillovers and Free Riding in Advertising of Prescription Pharmaceuticals: The Case of Antidepressants","abstract":"Exploiting the discontinuity in advertising along the borders of television markets, I estimate that television advertising of prescription antidepressants exhibits significant positive spillovers on rivals’ demand. I apply this identification in a demand model, where estimated parameters indicate significant and persistent spillovers driven by market expansion. Using the demand estimates to calibrate a stylized supply model, I explore the consequences of the positive spillovers on firm advertising choice. Compared with a competitive benchmark in which firms optimally free ride, simulations suggest that a category-wide advertising cooperative would produce a significant increase in total advertising.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Bradley Shapiro"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/695475","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6ec019a9f41881ae","title":"Implicit guarantees and the rise of shadow banking: The case of trust products","abstract":"Implicit guarantees provided by financial intermediaries are a key component of China's shadow banking sector. We show theoretically that project screening by intermediaries, accompanied by their implicit guarantees to investors, can be the second-best arrangement and mitigate capital misallocation that favors state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Using a dataset of trusts’ investment products, we find, consistent with our model, that ex ante expected yields reflect borrower risks and implicit guarantee strength, and risk sensitivity is reduced by strong guarantees. Regulations in 2018 restricting implicit guarantees lead to a weaker relationship between yield spread and guarantee strength, and more credit rationing of non-SOEs.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Franklin Allen","Xian Gu","C. Wei Li","Jun Qian","Yiming Qian"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6ec22fa8f6f7dca2","title":"Global and local technical changes: A new decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index using virtual units","abstract":"In estimating productivity change over time, technical change is frequently miscalculated as the geometric average of technological changes between two periods based on firm-specific information in the dataset. However, the frontier shift over time is a global phenomenon linked to relative technological progress or regress across the entire frontiers. In this paper, we fill this gap by determining the technical change using synthetic observations generated at random within a unit hypercube and calculating the distances between them and the two frontiers being evaluated. Accordingly, we propose a decomposition of the Malmquist index's traditional technical change into two components: average global technical change, which is shared by all production units, and local technical change, which captures how each firm experiences global technical change. In this way, our approach establishes a new research avenue in production economics based on using randomly generated virtual points to assess overall phenomena.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Juan Aparicio","Daniel Santín González"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","C","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106674","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6edbc00d29b88378","title":"Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions","abstract":"We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Christiane Baumeister","Dimitris Korobilis","Thomas K. Lee"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00977","license":"cc-by-sa"},{"id":"public-6ee24a9dbf21b1b5","title":"Farmer training in off-season vegetables: Effects on income and pesticide use in Bangladesh","abstract":"The cultivation of crops outside the regular cropping calendar when supply is low and prices are high can give farmers better profits and consumers more choice. However, off-season production may increase pesticide risk if crops are more affected by pests and diseases and farmers do not handle pesticides correctly. This study quantified the effect of training in off-season tomato production on the income and pesticide use of smallholder vegetable farmers in southwestern Bangladesh. The study uses farm-level data from 94 trained and 151 non-trained farm households and applies propensity score matching and inverse probability weighting to correct for selection bias. For the average smallholder vegetable farmer, training increased net household income by about 48%. We found that 31% of the trained farm households who had initially adopted the technology continued its use in the second year, but farm households who discontinued using the technology also experienced significant income gains from the training. There was a significant increase in pesticide use (+56%) and although there was an improvement in pesticide handling practices, trained farmers may have been more exposed to pesticide health risk. The policy implication is that while off-season vegetable production can create dramatic income improvements, it is important to emphasize safe and sustainable pest management methods as part of policies promoting it.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Pepijn Schreinemachers","Mei-Huey Wu","Mohammed Nasir Uddin","Shahabuddin Ahmad","Peter Hanson"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.03.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6ef97b0eec4f7cef","title":"Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China","abstract":"This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Yun Qiu","Xi Chen","Wei Shi"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00778-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6f09c1ff3102630d","title":"Mechanism design without quasilinearity","abstract":"This paper studies a model of mechanism design with transfers where agents' preferences need not be quasilinear. In such a model, (i) we characterize dominant strategy incentive compatible mechanisms using a monotonicity property, (ii) we establish a revenue uniqueness result (for every dominant strategy implementable allocation rule, there is a unique payment rule that can implement it), and (iii) we show that every dominant strategy incentive compatible, individually rational, and revenue‐maximizing mechanism must charge zero payment for the worst alternative (outside option). These results are applicable in a wide variety of problems (single object auction, multiple object auction, public good provision, etc.) under suitable richness of type space. In particular, our results are applicable to two important type spaces: (a) type space containing an arbitrarily small perturbation of quasilinear type space and (b) type space containing all positive income effect preferences.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Tomoya Kazumura","Debasis Mishra","Shigehiro Serizawa"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2910","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6f0ab7fa920cfc17","title":"Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows","abstract":"We study the effects of sovereign debt inflows on domestic firms. To do so, we exploit episodes of large sovereign debt inflows, which follow the announcements of the inclusion of six emerging countries into major sovereign debt indexes. We find that these events reduce government bond yields, appreciate the domestic currency, and have heterogeneous stock-market effects on domestic firms. Firms operating in tradable industries experience lower returns than firms in non-tradable industries. In addition, financial firms, government-related firms, and firms that rely more on external financing experience higher returns. The effect on financial and government-related firms is stronger in countries that display larger reductions in government bond yields. The effect on tradable firms is stronger in countries that display stronger appreciations. We provide a stylized model that rationalizes these results. Our findings shed novel light on the channels through which sovereign debt inflows affect firms in emerging countries.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Fernando Broner","Alberto Martín","Lorenzo Pandolfi","Tomás Williams"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103446","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6f16e37d71488073","title":"Privacy, Personalization, and Price Discrimination","abstract":"We study a bilateral trade setting in which a buyer has private valuations over a multi-product seller’s inventory. We introduce the notion of an incentive-compatible market segmentation (IC-MS)—a market segmentation compatible with the buyer’s incentives to voluntarily reveal their preferences. Our main result is a characterization of the buyer-optimal IC-MS. It is partially revealing, comprised primarily of pooling segments wide enough to keep prices low but narrow enough to ensure trade over relevant products. We use our results to study a novel design problem in which a retail platform seeks to attract consumers by calibrating the coarseness of its search interface. Our analysis speaks directly to consumer privacy and the debate regarding product steering versus price discrimination in online retail.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Sinem Hidir","Nikhil Vellodi"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f32037aa39ede3d","title":"The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from The United States","abstract":"We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest festival, a key event in Twitter’s rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congressional elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter’s relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Thomas Fujiwara","Karsten Müller","Carlo Schwarz"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad058","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f34e9bf3ef5324a","title":"‘Real’ wages? Contractors, workers, and pay in London building trades, 1650–1800","abstract":"Existing series suggest wages in London were higher than in other European cities from 1650 to 1800. This article presents new evidence from the construction sites that supplied the underlying wage data, and uncovers the contractual and organizational context in which they were recorded. Institutional records of wages were profoundly affected by structural changes in the seventeenth century, particularly the emergence of large‐scale building contractors. The actual wages paid to London building workers were substantially below current estimates.","wordCount":78,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Judy Z. Stephenson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12491","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f36326b922b3997","title":"Human Decisions and Machine Predictions","abstract":"Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals.","wordCount":245,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jon Kleinberg","Himabindu Lakkaraju","Jure Leskovec","Jens Ludwig","Sendhil Mullainathan"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f3ab5e35e8e3a76","title":"Religions, fertility, and growth in southeast asia","abstract":"We investigate the extent to which the pronatalism of religions impedes growth via the fertility/education channel. Using Southeast Asian censuses, we show empirically that being Catholic, Buddhist, or Muslim significantly raises fertility, especially for couples with intermediate to high education levels. With these estimates, we identify the parameters of a structural model. Catholicism is strongly pro‐child (increasing total spending on children), followed by Buddhism, whereas Islam is more pro‐birth (redirecting spending from quality to quantity). Pro‐child religions depress growth in its early stages by lowering savings and labor supply. In the later stages of growth, pro‐birth religions impede human capital accumulation.","wordCount":101,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["David de la Croix","Clara Delavallade"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12291","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f4586c55f53ace9","title":"Inequality Measurement and The Rich: Why Inequality Increased More Than We Thought","abstract":"To compare income and wealth distributions and to assess the effects of policy that affect those distributions require reliable inequality‐measurement tools. However, commonly used inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient have an apparently counter‐intuitive property: income growth among the rich may actually reduce measured inequality. We show that there are just two inequality measures that both avoid this anomalous behavior and satisfy the principle of transfers. We further show that the recent increases in US income inequality are understated by the conventional Gini coefficient and explain why a simple alternative inequality measure should be preferred in practice.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Frank Cowell","Emmanuel Flachaire"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12638","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6f57de3f8d0a1824","title":"Regulating Privacy Online: An Economic Evaluation of the GDPR","abstract":"Modern websites rely on personal data to design better content and to market themselves. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) was intended to make access to such personal data more difficult, with the goal of protecting user privacy. We examine the GDPR's impact on website page views and revenue for 1,084 online firms using data from Adobe's website analytics platform. We find a reduction of 12 percent in both EU user website page views and website revenue recorded by the platform after the GDPR’s enforcement deadline. We decompose these GDPR effects into changes in real outcomes and changes to data recording, respectively.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Samuel Goldberg","Garrett Johnson","Scott K. Shriver"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210309","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f5ab2729ea583df","title":"Spatial discounting of ecosystem services","abstract":"The impact of conservation efforts targeted at preserving ecosystem services largely depend on the welfare implications associated with spatial variations in the provision of ecosystem services. While there is ample empirical evidence of spatial discounting or decay of the valuation of ecosystem services, there are still few underpinnings based on welfare economic theory. We establish a theory of spatial discounting that closely follows the concept of time discounting pertaining to climate change, and show spatial discount rates in the consumption, ecosystem service, and willingness to pay (WTP) numeraires. We consider the role of key parameters such as pure rate of spatial preference, consumption change, ecosystem services change, population density, and elasticity of marginal utility. We find that the spatial discount rate of WTP for ecosystem services that frequently appears in the empirical literature is the difference between the ecosystem service discount rate and consumption discount rate, where the ecosystem service discount rate includes both physical distance decay and welfare effects. Finally, we use numerical simulations to illustrate how the three different spatial discount rates vary with the spatial distance from the source of ecosystem services and with consumption patterns, implying many more possible spatial variations of WTP.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Rintaro Yamaguchi","Payal Shah"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2020.101186","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6f5b607303e98293","title":"Beware the performance of an algorithm before relying on it: Evidence from a stock price forecasting experiment","abstract":"We experimentally investigated the relationship between participants’ reliance on algorithms, their familiarity with the task, and the performance level of the algorithm. We found that when participants were given the freedom to submit any number as their final forecast after observing the one produced by the algorithm (a condition found to mitigate algorithm aversion), the average degree of reliance on high and low performing algorithms did not significantly differ when there was no practice stage. Participants relied less on the algorithm when there was practice stage, regardless of its performance level. The reliance on the low performing algorithm was positive even when participants could infer that they outperformed the algorithm. Indeed, participants would have done better without relying on the low performing algorithm at all. Our results suggest that, at least in some domains, excessive reliance on algorithms, rather than algorithm aversion, should be a concern.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Tiffany Tsz Kwan Tse","Nobuyuki Hanaki","Bolin Mao"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102727","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6f5f328809ba11ec","title":"Does bundling crop insurance with certified seeds crowd-in investments? Experimental evidence from Kenya","abstract":"We use a randomised experiment in Kenya to analyse how smallholder farmers respond to receiving a free hybrid crop insurance product, conditional on purchasing certified seeds. We find that farmers increase effort—increasing total investments and taking more land in production. In addition to adopting more certified seeds, they also invest more in complementary inputs such as fertilizer and hired-in farm-machinery and non-farm labour. We find limited evidence of a change in farming intensity. For example, there is no evidence of ‘crowding-out’ of effort or inputs on a per-hectare basis, even if the indemnity-based component of the insurance product potentially gives rise to asymmetric information problems (moral hazard). We also document that ex post willingness to pay for the insurance product has increased for the treatment group. This suggests that learning about the benefits of (subsidized) insurance outweighs any anchoring effects on the zero price during the pilot study.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Erwin Bulte","Francesco Cecchi","Robert Lensink","Ana Marr","Marcel van Asseldonk"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.07.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6f60c1d11c958ec1","title":"Pretrial negotiations under optimism","abstract":"We develop a tractable and versatile model of pretrial negotiation in which the negotiating parties are optimistic about the judge's decision and anticipate the possible arrival of public information about the case prior to the trial date. The parties will settle immediately upon the arrival of information. However, they may also agree to settle prior to an arrival. We derive the settlement dynamics prior to an arrival: negotiations result in either immediate agreement, a weak deadline effect—settling at a particular date before the deadline, a strong deadline effect—settling at the deadline, or impasse, depending on the level of optimism. Our findings match stylized facts.","wordCount":104,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Shoshana Vasserman","Muhamet Yıldız"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12273","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f62fd550bbaaec0","title":"Can Fixed-term Contracts Put Low Skilled Youth on a Better Career Path? Evidence from Spain","abstract":"By reducing the commitment made by employers, fixed-term contracts can help low-skilled youth find a first job. However, the long-term impact of fixed-term contracts on these workers’ careers may be negative. Using Spanish social security data, we analysed the impact of a large liberalisation in the regulation of fixed-term contracts in 1984. Using a cohort regression discontinuity design, we find that over the first 10 years in the labour market, the reform reduced the number of days worked (by 4.9%) and earnings (by 9.8%). Over 27 years of labour market career, yearly earnings losses amount to a persistent 7.3%.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["J Ignacio García-Pérez","Ioana Marinescu","Judit Vall Castelló"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12621","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f6c538e611f3b71","title":"Best experienced payoff dynamics and cooperation in the centipede game","abstract":"We study population game dynamics under which each revising agent tests each of his strategies a fixed number of times, with each play of each strategy being against a newly drawn opponent, and chooses the strategy whose total payoff was highest. In the centipede game, these best experienced payoff dynamics lead to cooperative play. When strategies are tested once, play at the almost globally stable state is concentrated on the last few nodes of the game, with the proportions of agents playing each strategy being largely independent of the length of the game. Testing strategies many times leads to cyclical play.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["William H. Sandholm","Segismundo S. Izquierdo","Luis R. Izquierdo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3565","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6f6f3c488c503bf9","title":"China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Restatement","abstract":"Peter Solar highlights some shortcomings of our treatment of government spending. However, correcting for these shortcomings using data rather than assumptions confirms our principal findings. GDP per capita in the leading region of China remained around the same level as in the leading region of Europe until the eighteenth century before declining substantially during the Qing dynasty. The Great Divergence thus began around 1700, earlier than originally suggested by the California School, but later than implied by earlier writers. The new data do not support Solar’s novel chronology with its Great Crossing, Great Convergence and Greater Divergence.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Stephen Broadberry","Hanhui Guan","David Daokui Li"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050721000292","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f771be932183f19","title":"Financing Innovation: Evidence from R&D Grants","abstract":"Governments regularly subsidize new ventures to spur innovation. This paper conducts the first large-sample, quasi-experimental evaluation of R&D subsidies. I use data on ranked applicants to the US Department of Energy's SBIR [grant]. An early-stage [grant] doubles the probability that a firm receives subsequent venture capital and has large, positive impacts on patenting and revenue. These effects are stronger for more financially constrained firms. Certification, where the [grant] information about firm quality, likely does not explain the [grant]. Instead, the grants are useful because they fund technology prototyping.","wordCount":88,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Sabrina T Howell"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150808","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f84a1185ae69de4","title":"Risk Attitudes across the Life Course","abstract":"This article investigates how risk attitudes change over the life course. We study the age trajectory of risk attitudes all the way from early adulthood until old age, in large representative panel data sets from the Netherlands and Germany. Age patterns are generally difficult to identify separately from cohort or calendar period effects. We achieve identification by replacing calendar period indicators with controls for the specific underlying factors that may change risk attitudes across periods. The main result is that willingness to take risks decreases over the life course, linearly until approximately age 65 after which the slope becomes flatter.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Thomas Dohmen","Armin Falk","Bart Golsteyn","David Huffman","Uwe Sunde"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12322","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-6f8b158570c8b582","title":"Is the rise in high school graduation rates real? High-stakes school accountability and strategic behavior","abstract":"We show that publicly reported U.S. high school graduation rates have increased by 10-18 percentage points over the past two decades. Using national difference-in-differences analyses of state- and district-level variation in graduation rates, we also find that graduation accountability from No Child Left Behind (NCLB) was likely a principal cause. Additional analysis of high school graduation exams, GEDs, credit recovery, and high school exit codes suggest that strategic behavior is not a primary explanation. This provides some of the first evidence to date that federal accountability has substantially increased the nation's stock of human capital","wordCount":95,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Douglas N. Harris","Lihan Liu","Nathan Barrett","Ruoxi Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102355","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6f8c98673d918506","title":"The cross‐border spillover effects of recreational marijuana legalization","abstract":"We examine the spillover effects of recreational marijuana legalization (RML) in Colorado and Washington on neighboring states. We find that RML causes a sharp increase in marijuana possession arrests in border counties of neighboring states relative to nonborder counties in these states. RML has no impact on juvenile marijuana possession arrests but is rather fully concentrated among adults. We find mixed results regarding the source(s) of this change. Using separate data on self‐reported marijuana use, we show that RML is accompanied by an increase in use in neighboring states relative to non‐neighboring states. However, the increase in arrests following RML is highly concentrated in a few states, which we argue is more consistent with a change in police enforcement near some state borders driving the arrest results.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Zhuang Hao","Benjamin Cowan"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12764","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f9d391890ffde1f","title":"Globalization, Markups, and US Welfare","abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of globalization on markups, and the effect of changing markups on US welfare, in a monopolistic competition model. We work with symmetric translog preferences, which allow for endogenous markups and firm entry and exit, thereby changing product variety. We find that between 1992 and 2005, US import shares rose and US firms exited, leading to an implied fall in markups, while variety went up because of imports. US welfare rose by nearly 1 percent as a result of these changes, with product variety contributing one-half of that total and declining markups the other half.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Robert C. Feenstra","David E. Weinstein"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692695","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6f9de269d32b2f05","title":"Price effects of search advertising restrictions","abstract":"Some suppliers prohibit their distributors from advertising on search engines if the consumer searches for the supplier's brand name. Such restrictions are referred to as “non-brand bidding agreements” (NBBAs). This paper investigates the effect of NBBAs on retail prices in the Dutch hotel sector, where some hotels impose NBBAs on online hotel booking platforms. An NBBA may protect the hotel's own website against competition from hotels on booking platforms because booking platforms cannot target consumers searching for the hotel with a search ad. This may lead to higher prices on the hotel website. However, an NBBA may also generate ad savings, which may lead to lower prices. We use hotel prices from a meta-search site and data on NBBAs from two hotel booking platforms. To correct for unobserved heterogeneity between hotels with and without NBBA, we apply a trajectory balancing approach within a synthetic difference-in-differences framework. Compared to non-NBBA-hotels, NBBA-hotels charge higher prices on their website relative to the price on booking platforms, suggesting a price increase. We identify cases where it is unlikely that consumers benefit from passed-on ad savings.","wordCount":181,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jan Sviták","Jan Tichem","Stefan Haasbeek"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102736","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6fa8b764fc68a2f9","title":"The curious incidence of rent subsidies: Evidence of heterogeneity from administrative data","abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on the incidence of rent subsidies. We use administrative panel data on subsidy recipients in the UK and exploit a natural experiment in which entitlements were cut for about a million households. In the short-run, about 90% of the incidence of the cuts is found to be on tenants. We also uncover an important dimension of heterogeneity in the balance of incidence between tenants and their landlords. We find that the share of the incidence of the cut that falls on landlords, rather than tenants, is higher in cases where the previous system looked more generous relative to tenants’ likely housing needs. This is informative about the likely incidence of alternative rent subsidy schemes.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Mike Brewer","James Browne","Carl Emmerson","Andrew Hood","Robert Joyce"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.103198","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6fc01e1da9b23d6b","title":"Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand","abstract":"We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology, and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the gasoline demand elasticity has declined in absolute value to near zero since the 1980s. The elasticity was stable near −0.3 until the end of 2014. It rose to about −0.2 in 2015–16, but has remained stable since 2016. Gasoline demand is more responsive in states with lower personal income, higher unemployment rates and lower urban population shares. There is no evidence for an asymmetry in the elasticity with respect to positive and negative gasoline price shocks. We illustrate how these elasticity estimates inform the recent policy debate about the impact of gasoline tax holidays on consumers’ discretionary income and about the demand destruction from the spike in gasoline prices after the invasion of Ukraine.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Lutz Kilian","Xiaoqing Zhou"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105099","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-6fe0b72f0160c239","title":"Current account dynamics and the real exchange rate: Disentangling the evidence","abstract":"We study the main shocks driving current account (CA) fluctuations for the G6 economies, using a standard two-good intertemporal model. We build a structural vector autoregression model including the world real interest rate, net output (NO), the real exchange rate, and the CA and identify four structural shocks. Our results suggest four main conclusions: (i) there is substantial support for the two-good intertemporal model with time-varying interest rate, since both external supply and preference shocks account for an important proportion of CA fluctuations; (ii) temporary domestic shocks account for a large proportion of CA fluctuations, albeit smaller than in previous studies; (iii) our results alleviate the puzzle in the literature that a shock that explains little about NO changes can explain a large proportion of CA changes; (iv) the nature of the shock matters to shape the relationship between the CA and the real exchange rate.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Matthieu Bussière","Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou","Miguel A. León‐Ledesma"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000561","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6ff1723c06f09f73","title":"Digitalization to improve tax compliance: Evidence from VAT e-Invoicing in Peru","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of switching from paper to electronic invoicing on firm tax compliance and performance using quasi-experimental variation in the roll-out of VAT e-invoicing in Peru. We find that e-invoicing increases reported firm sales, purchases and VAT liabilities by over 5 percent in the first year after adoption. The impact is concentrated among small firms and sectors with higher rates of noncompliance, suggesting that e-invoicing enhances compliance by lowering compliance costs and strengthening deterrence. However, we also find that existing stocks of VAT credits were used to offset the reform's positive effects on VAT collection, suggesting that digital tools such as e-invoicing would need to be complemented by other reforms to improve revenue mobilization.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Matthieu Bellon","Era Dabla‐Norris","Salma Khalid","Frederico Lima"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104661","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6ff2b2ea1b9a9a42","title":"The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices","abstract":"We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses across price categories, including some prices that show an initially positive response. We discuss theoretical interpretations of our findings and point to useful directions for future theoretical research. We also show how to re-aggregate our cross-sectional estimates and their standard errors, taking into account dependence between different prices using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach. Re-aggregation exercises show that changes in expenditure behavior have not accelerated the long-lagged response of inflation to monetary policy.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["S. Borağan Aruoba","Thomas Drechsel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103635","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-6ff33f6f4562f6e2","title":"Fire protection services and house prices: A regression discontinuity investigation","abstract":"Despite its importance as a public good, little research studies how fire protection services affect housing markets or other economic outcomes. We focus on fire levies that are up for renewal so that the timing of the levy is exogenous, to help preserve the independence of votes. We use regression discontinuity to compare the price of houses in fire districts that barely pass and fail to renew a fire tax levy. House values drop at least 6.7 % the year after a community votes to cut fire protection funding, which is a quarter of a standard deviation of sale price and larger than the capitalization of crime, school quality, or environmental quality. Tax levies representing more than the median 18.8 % funding drop elicit a larger drop in house prices. The short-term decrease does not persist, though, suggesting limited awareness and a decline in risk perception over time by buyers and sellers.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["David M. Brasington","Olivier Parent"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103984","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-6ff519155aca76f6","title":"Competitive pricing strategies in social networks","abstract":"We study pricing strategies of competing firms selling heterogeneous products to consumers. Goods are substitutes and there are network externalities between neighboring consumers. In equilibrium, firms price discriminate based on the network positions and charge lower prices to more central consumers. We also show that, under some conditions, firms' equilibrium profits decrease when either the network becomes denser or network effects increase. In contrast, consumers always benefit from being more connected to each other. We determine the optimal network structure and compare uniform pricing and discriminatory pricing from the perspectives of firms and consumers.","wordCount":94,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Ying‐Ju Chen","Yves Zénou","Junjie Zhou"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12249","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-6ff783728d7f1484","title":"Family Disadvantage and the Gender Gap in Behavioral and Educational Outcomes","abstract":"Boys born to disadvantaged families have higher rates of disciplinary problems, lower achievement scores, and fewer high school completions than girls from comparable backgrounds. Using birth certificates matched to schooling records for Florida children born 1992–2002, we find that family disadvantage disproportionately impedes the pre-market development of boys. The differential effect of family disadvantage on boys is robust to specifications within schools and neighborhoods as well as across siblings within families. Evidence supports that this is the effect of the postnatal environment; family disadvantage is unrelated to the gender gap in neonatal health. We conclude that the gender gap among black children is larger than among white children in substantial part because black children are raised in more disadvantaged families.","wordCount":120,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["David Autor","David Figlio","Krzysztof Karbownik","Jeffrey Roth","Melanie Wasserman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170571","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-70025321849649b5","title":"Separate and Unequal in the Labor Market: Human Capital and the Jim Crow Wage Gap","abstract":"Competing explanations for the long-standing gap between black and white earnings attribute different weight to wage discrimination and human capital differences. Using new data on local school quality, we find that human capital played a predominant role in determining 1940 wage and occupational status gaps in the South despite entrenched racial discrimination in civic life and the lack of federal employment protections. The resulting wage gap coincides with the higher end of the range of estimates from the post–Civil Rights era. We estimate that truly “separate but equal” schools would have reduced wage inequality by 29%–48%.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Celeste K. Carruthers","Marianne Wanamaker"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690944","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-70043664d6d20f9c","title":"The Fake News Effect: Experimentally Identifying Motivated Reasoning Using Trust in News","abstract":"Motivated reasoning posits that people distort how they process information in the direction of beliefs they find attractive. This paper creates a novel experimental design to identify motivated reasoning from Bayesian updating when people have preconceived beliefs. It analyzes how subjects assess the veracity of information sources that tell them the median of their belief distribution is too high or too low. Bayesians infer nothing about the source veracity, but motivated beliefs are evoked. Evidence supports politically motivated reasoning about immigration, income mobility, crime, racial discrimination, gender, climate change, and gun laws. Motivated reasoning helps explain belief biases, polarization, and overconfidence.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Michael Thaler"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20220146","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-70166d48f107c371","title":"Why does anonymity make us misbehave: Different norms or less compliance?","abstract":"In a laboratory experiment we investigate whether bad behavior in anonymous environments results from more lenient social norms or a reduction in the size of the role played by social norms in decision‐making. We elicit social norms in two dictator games with different levels of anonymity, estimate subjects' willingness‐to‐pay to adhere to norms, and test for treatment differences in each factor. Overall, it is a large reduction in the role played by social norms, which results in more unfair dictator choices when anonymous. Interestingly, however, females find making an unfair decision less acceptable when the dictator is unidentified.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Eryk Krysowski","James Tremewan"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12955","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-701b1c9350e8951e","title":"Agriculture as a funding source of ISIS: A GIS and remote sensing analysis","abstract":"Agriculture is an important source of income for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), which currently rules over large parts of the breadbaskets of the two countries. It has received limited attention compared to other sources of ISIS revenues such as oil, looting, ransom, foreign donations and various forms of taxation. We estimate winter crops production of wheat and barley in ISIS-controlled areas in both Syria and Iraq for the years 2014–2015 and irrigated summer crops production (cotton) in Northeast Syria. We show that remote sensing can give a credible estimation of agricultural production in the absence of statistics. With evidence from MODIS Aqua and Terra Satellites as well as Landsat imagery, we find that agricultural production in ISIS-controlled Syrian and Iraqi zones has been sustained in 2014 and 2015, despite the detrimental impact of conflict. After a drought in 2014 production was able to capitalize on improved rainfalls in 2015. First indications show that the winter grain harvest of 2016 in Iraqi territories of ISIS was significantly above pre-conflict mean and below pre-conflict mean in its Syrian territories. We also show how water flows along the Euphrates have impacted production. We estimate the revenue that ISIS can derive from wheat and barley production and the likely magnitude of an exportable surplus. Agricultural production gives the group a degree of resilience, although its economy is not sustainable in the longer run and could be affected by military collapse. Taxation of recurrent income streams such as agriculture will become more important for ISIS as its extractive sources of revenues show signs of dwindling. Beside non-grain food imports, agricultural production is crucial for its political legitimacy by ensuring food provision to the broader population. Food security considerations would require a high priority in any post-ISIS reconstruction effort and would need to include the rehabilitation of supply chains for agricultural inputs such as quality seeds and fertilizers.","wordCount":316,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Hadi Jaafar","Eckart Woertz"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-701f6eae321e6c64","title":"Child care costs, household liquidity constraints, and gender inequality","abstract":"In a model with endogenous female labour supply and wages, we show that liquidity constraints that prevent households from buying child care generate an inefficiency and amplify gender gaps in the labour market. We evaluate the relative merits of paid maternity leave, child care subsidies, and government loans in mitigating liquidity constraints and promoting gender equality. While an extension in the duration of the leave has ambiguous effects, child care subsidies and loans in the form of child care vouchers remove the liquidity constraints and reduce gender gaps in participation and wages. We illustrate the mechanisms at play in a numerical example using Spanish data.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Alessandra Casarico","Elena Del Rey","José I. Silva"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00936-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-702a583ea7a847f4","title":"Measuring Economic Insecurity Using a Counting Approach. An Application to Three EU Countries","abstract":"In this paper, we propose the use of a multidimensional approach to the measurement of economic insecurity in three European countries. We combine six different unidimensional indicators proxying the subjective and objective determinants of economic insecurity into a single index based on a counting approach method, which allows us to measure the incidence and the intensity of the phenomenon. Using longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU‐SILC) from 2008 to 2016, we find that the incidence of insecurity falls as income grows, being significantly present in middle‐income households both in Spain and France but not in Sweden. Interestingly, in all three countries, the contribution of different dimensions to insecurity changes as household income grows, while for all income levels a higher education and being employed in a non‐fixed term contract are strongly related to a lower probability of being economically insecure.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Marina Romaguera de la Cruz"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12428","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-702e82c65a43ca57","title":"The external financing of investment","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of investment characteristics on the financing choice. We investigate instances of seasoned equity, bank debt, straight non-bank debt, and convertible issues by U.S. firms where the stated use of proceeds is capital expenditure and where we are able to hand-collect and classify the characteristics of the investment. Controlling for a firm's existing assets, capital structure and valuation, we document a strong empirical link between an investment's characteristics and the choice between debt and equity financing. Factor analysis indicates that the principal determinant of the financing choice is whether an investment's payoffs can be described as a hit or miss.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Bruce D. Grundy","Patrick Verwijmeren"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101745","license":"cc-by-sa"},{"id":"public-7038ecf22b36edef","title":"Round giving: A field experiment on suggested donation amounts in public‐television fundraising","abstract":"Direct‐mail fundraisers commonly provide a set of suggested donation amounts to potential donors, in addition to a write‐in option. Standard economic models of charitable fundraising do not predict an impact of suggested amounts on charitable giving. However, our field experiments on direct‐mail solicitations to over 10,000 members of a public television station tell a different story. We find that changing one of the suggested amounts in an ask string from $100 to $95 reduces the number of gifts greater than or equal to $90 by more than 30%. This contrasts with our finding that in three independent comparisons, increasing the entire vector of suggested amounts by 20%–40% reduces the probability of giving by approximately 15%, with little effect on the average size of the gift. Both manipulations lead to a larger proportion of write‐in donations, even as they reduce the number of total gifts. We propose a simple behavioral theory to explain the data: many donors prefer to give round numbers, and donors incur a cognitive cost when choosing to give a nonsuggested amount.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["David Reiley","Anya Samek"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12742","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-703951162bb41a9c","title":"The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type","abstract":"In this paper, we examine the potential of immigration to strengthen fiscal sustainability, which is under pressure by an ageing population in many European countries. We look at a particularly challenging case, namely that of Denmark, which has extensive tax-financed welfare programmes that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast of the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. We present life cycle estimates of the potential fiscal impact of immigration considering the cost of immigration on the margin as well as on average. The main conclusion is that immigrants from Western countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from non-Western countries have a large negative one, which is also the case when considering only non-refugee immigrants. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement in combination with the universal Danish welfare schemes.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Marianne Frank Hansen","Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen","Torben Tranæs"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-017-0636-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-703b9ca97f3f92fb","title":"Alert the Inert? Switching Costs and Limited Awareness in Retail Electricity Markets","abstract":"We quantify how switching costs and limited awareness affect consumer inertia in liberalized retail electricity markets by developing and estimating a structural demand model using a novel dataset on electricity contract choices in Belgium. Our data allow us to disentangle different sources of inertia by using a rich combination of macromoments and micromoments. We find that consumers perceive contracts as differentiated and both limited awareness and switching costs hinder efficient choices. Our counterfactuals reveal substantial welfare gains from alleviating both frictions, in particular switching costs, and that a well-regulated monopoly can generate similar consumer surplus as the current deregulated market.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Luisa Dressler","Stefan Weiergraeber"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190163","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-704565be8ee8604a","title":"Earnings Growth and Movements in Self‐Reported Health","abstract":"We employ data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to investigate income to health causality. To account for unobserved heterogeneity, we focus on the relationship between earnings growth and changes in self‐reported health status. Causal claims are predicated upon appropriate moment restrictions and specification tests of their validity. We find evidence of causality running from income to health for married women and men. In addition, spousal income appears to be protective for married women.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Timothy J. Halliday"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12242","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7047363e32c2de49","title":"The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism","abstract":"Mental health and substance use disorders are highly prevalent among incarcerated individuals. Many prisoners reenter the community without receiving any specialized treatment and return to prison with existing behavioral health problems. We consider a Beckerian law enforcement theory to identify different channels through which access to healthcare may impact ex‐offenders’ propensities to recidivate, and empirically estimate the effect of access to public health insurance on criminal recidivism. By exploiting variation in state Medicaid expansion decisions, we find that increased access to healthcare through Medicaid coverage reduces recidivism among offenders convicted of violent and public order crimes. The decomposition of recidivism rates shows that this reduction is driven by marginal recidivists who, but for Medicaid expansions, would be reconvicted for the type of crime for which they were previously convicted. Analyses of potential mechanisms show an increase in criminal justice referrals to addiction treatment, which may reduce impulsive behavior. Back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations also indicate that there are substantial cost reductions from providing Medicaid coverage to former inmates.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Erkmen Giray Aslım","Murat C. Mungan","Carlos I. Navarro","Han Yu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22345","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-704ef7329548bf2d","title":"Does informal care delay nursing home entry? Evidence from Dutch linked survey and administrative data","abstract":"We assess whether informal care receipt affects the probability of transitioning to a nursing home. Available evidence derives from the US, where nursing home stays are often temporary. Exploiting linked survey and administrative data from the Netherlands, we use the gender mix of children to retrieve exogenous variation in informal care receipt. We find that informal care increases the chance of an admission within a three-year period for individuals with severe functional limitations, and increases the costs incurred on formal home care. For individuals with mild limitations, informal care substantially decreases total care costs, whereas its effect on nursing home admission is unclear. Further, informal care results in lower post-acute care use and hospital care costs, and does not increase mortality. Promoting informal care cannot be expected to systematically result in lower institutionalization rate and care costs, but it may nonetheless induce health benefits for its recipients.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Julien Bergeot","Marianne Tenand"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102831","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-704f3717662438d2","title":"Housing market and school choice response to school quality information shocks✰","abstract":"This paper investigates market response to a nationwide school quality information disclosure regime. Exploiting quasi-exogenous timing of the release of information through the school year, I uncover a number of novel empirical findings. First, investigating the house price margin, the results reveal a strikingly convex hedonic price function: large effects to school quality ratings for homes located near schools serving advantaged students but little impact in poorer neighborhoods. These heterogeneous effects can help reconcile relatively modest overall mean school quality capitalization effects with, for example, the large fees wealthier families typically pay for private schools. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the impact of credible and low frequency school quality information shocks persists through the medium term. Finally, exploring the impact of the same information intervention on the school choice margin demonstrates that uprated schools serving advantaged students experience dramatic increases in demand from local families, however response for schools serving less advantaged families is more muted.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Iftikhar Hussain"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103606","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-70562026cde4d62d","title":"Effects of organized screening programs on breast cancer screening, incidence, and mortality in Europe","abstract":"We link data on regional Organized Screening Programs (OSPs) throughout Europe with survey data and population-based cancer registries to estimate effects of OSPs on breast cancer screening (mammography), incidence, and mortality. Identification is from regional variation in the existence and timing of OSPs, and in their age-eligibility criteria. We estimate that OSPs, on average, increase mammography by 25 percentage points, increase breast cancer incidence by 16% five years after the OSPs implementation, and reduce breast cancer mortality by about 10% ten years after.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Sophie Guthmuller","Vincenzo Carrieri","Ansgar Wübker"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102803","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7058fd65471fb7f3","title":"Public R&D Investments and Private-sector Patenting: Evidence from NIH Funding Rules","abstract":"We quantify the impact of scientific [grant] at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) on patenting by pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms. Our paper makes two contributions. First, we use newly constructed bibliometric data to develop a method for flexibly linking specific [grant] to private-sector innovations. Second, we take advantage of idiosyncratic rigidities in the rules governing NIH peer review to generate exogenous variation in funding across research areas. Our results show that NIH funding spurs the development of private-sector patents: a $10 million boost in NIH funding leads to a net increase of 2.3 patents. Though valuing patents is difficult, we report a range of estimates for the private value of these patents using different approaches.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Pierre Azoulay","Joshua Graff Zivin","Danielle Li","Bhaven N. Sampat"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy034","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-7068b6af8e8bca3d","title":"Unemployment Insurance benefit reduction and food hardship","abstract":"We leverage the sharp drop in unemployment insurance (UI) benefits following the expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program to estimate the consumption smoothing effect of UI. The $600/week decline in supplemental UI benefits is estimated to reduce total food spending by 9.7% and the odds of having food sufficiency by 6.0%. The estimate for food spending translates to a marginal propensity to spend on food out of UI benefits of 0.06, or a 1.2% reduction in food spending for every 10 percentage point decline in UI replacement rate (calculated as the ratio of UI benefits to pre‐unemployment wages). We find that the consumption effect of UI is countercyclical, greater when economic conditions are weak. The UI effect is also heterogeneous over respondents differentiated by race and ethnicity, income, homeownership, presence of children, state unemployment rates, and state UI generosity. The estimated effect of UI on self‐assessed food sufficiency and confidence about future food sufficiency is largely consistent with the food spending results.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Chandra Dhakal","Yufeng Luo","Shaonan Wang","Chen Zhen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22531","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-706bac9372744a6a","title":"Educational gender gaps","abstract":"Cross-country studies reveal two consistent gender gaps in education-underachievement in school by boys and low rates of participation in STEM studies by girls. Recent economics research has shown the importance of social influences on women's STEM avoidance, but male low achievement has been less-studied and tends to be attributed to behavior problems and deficient non-cognitive skills. I revisit the determinants of the gender gap in U.S. educational attainment with a relatively-advantaged sample of young men and women and find that school behavior and measured skills are not very important drivers of gender differences, particularly in the transition to college. Educational aspirations, on the other hand, are strongly predictive of educational gaps and the gender difference in aspirations cannot be explained, even with rich adolescent data that includes parental expectations and school achievement indicators. These results suggest that gender identity concerns may influence (and damage) the educational prospects of boys as well as girls through norms of masculinity that discourage academic achievement.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Shelly Lundberg"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12460","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7074d64401763a72","title":"Cross‐licensing and competition","abstract":"We analyze the competitive effects of bilateral cross‐licensing agreements in a setting with many competing firms. We show that firms can sustain the monopoly outcome if they can sign unconstrained bilateral cross‐licensing contracts. This result is robust to increasing the number of firms who can enter into a cross‐licensing agreement. We also investigate the scenario in which a cross‐licensing contract cannot involve the payment of a royalty by a licensee who decides ex post not to use the licensed technology. Finally, policy implications regarding the antitrust treatment of cross‐licensing agreements are derived.","wordCount":92,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Doh‐Shin Jeon","Yassine Lefouili"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12248","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-707523676415ec83","title":"The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination","abstract":"While investor sentiment has been shown to have a robust, direct impact on stock returns, we know little about how it impacts returns through an indirect channel from conditional volatility. We conduct a global study of investor sentiment across 40 international stock markets to examine the impact of investor sentiment on stock returns via both direct and indirect channels and how the impact varies across bull and bear market regimes. Using turnover ratio as the sentiment proxy and applying GARCH-type models, we confirm a conditional impact of investor sentiment on stock returns via both channels: In bull regimes, optimistic (pessimistic) shifts in investor sentiment would increase (decrease) stock returns, while in bear regimes, optimistic (pessimistic) shifts would decrease (increase) stock returns.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Wenzhao Wang","Chen Su","Darren Duxbury"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106458","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-70805f73ae11c9e5","title":"Price competition with a stake in your rival","abstract":"We examine how revenue-sharing and profit-sharing stakes affect price competition intensity under duopoly. Our analysis builds on the price competition framework introduced by Varian (1980) and accounts for fundamental asymmetries in terms of cost and consumer loyalty. A stake exists when a firm appropriates a share of its rival’s revenues or profits. For example, a marketplace owner that charges a third-party seller an ad valorem fee on its sales has a revenue-sharing stake, and a firm holding a minority ownership participation in another has a profit-sharing stake. We show that a revenue-sharing stake always has a stronger competition-dampening effect (leads to higher prices) than a profit-sharing stake, and explain how the introduction of a stake affects the intensity of competition between firms. Our analysis generates new insight into how stakes affect competitive interaction in the marketplace.","wordCount":136,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Andres Hervas‐Drane","Sandro Shelegia"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102862","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7083f1cef2f8f884","title":"Fiscal rules and government borrowing costs: International evidence","abstract":"We find that the adoption of numerical fiscal rules reduces government borrowing costs in a sample of 101 advanced and developing countries for 1985–2010. We apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to address the self‐selection problem of policy adoption and find strong evidence that fiscal rules have large and significant treatment effects on lowering government borrowing costs in both international and domestic financial markets. The results are robust to changes in country sample and alternative estimation methodology, and are consistent with fiscal rules helping to build policy credibility by reducing the probability of default and the “risk premium” on government debt that compensates lenders for this possibility.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["John Thornton","Chrysovalantis Vasilakis"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12484","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-7084d4f05ae639d4","title":"Are trade wars class wars? The importance of trade-induced horizontal inequality","abstract":"What is the nature of the distributional effects of trade? This paper demonstrates conceptually and empirically the importance of “trade-induced horizontal inequality,” i.e. inequality that occurs among workers with the same level of earnings before the trade shock. This type of inequality does not affect the income distribution but generates winners and losers at all income levels. To quantify the horizontal inequality and changes in the income distribution induced by trade in a data-driven way, we develop a characterization of the welfare impacts, governed by simple and intuitive statistics of labor market and consumption exposure to trade. In the U.S., we find substantial heterogeneity in exposure and thus in the welfare effects of trade shocks across workers. Over 99% of the variance of welfare changes from trade shocks arises within income deciles. These findings run against a popular narrative that “trade wars are class wars.”","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Kirill Borusyak","Xavier Jaravel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103935","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7092371c8b8bb52b","title":"Boundedly rational backward induction","abstract":"This paper proposes simple axioms that characterize a generalization of backward induction. At any node of a decision tree, the decision maker looks forward a fixed number of stages perfectly. Beyond that, the decision maker aggregates continuation values according to a function that captures reasoning under unpredictability. The model is uniquely identified from the decision maker's preference over decision trees. Confronting a decision tree, the decision maker iteratively revises her plan for the future as she moves forward in the decision tree. A comparative measure of unpredictability aversion and several examples are discussed.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Shaowei Ke"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2402","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-70a44b87399ed016","title":"Equilibria in symmetric games: Theory and applications","abstract":"This article presents a new approach to analyze the equilibrium set of symmetric, differentiable games by separating multiple symmetric equilibria and asymmetric equilibria. This separation allows the investigation of, for example, how various parameter constellations affect the scope for multiple symmetric or asymmetric equilibria, or how the equilibrium set depends on the nature of the strategies. The approach is particularly helpful in applications because (i) it allows the complexity of the uniqueness problem to be reduced to a two-player game, (ii) boundary conditions are less critical compared to standard procedures, and (iii) best replies need not be everywhere differentiable. The usefulness of the separation approach is illustrated with several examples, including an application to asymmetric games and to a two-dimensional price-information game.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Andreas Hefti"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2151","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-70dbbad6c3b3d44b","title":"Incentive design for reference-dependent preferences","abstract":"We investigate the optimal design of incentives when agents exhibit reference dependence. The theoretical framework of this paper incorporates the most prominent accounts of reference-dependent preferences and the most frequently used reference point rules. Such a general treatment of preferences allows us to characterize sufficient conditions on preference for the optimality of bonuses. We find that the optimal contract must include a bonus when agents suffer from loss aversion or exhibit sufficiently strong diminishing sensitivity. Moreover, we show that such a result holds when the reference point is either exogenous or deterministic. This paper provides a rationale for incentive schemes including bonuses grounded in preference.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Victor Gonzalez Jimenez"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.03.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-70e0ae16b939e717","title":"Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets","abstract":"This paper develops a model of segmented financial markets in which the net worth of financial institutions limits the degree of arbitrage across the term structure. The model is embedded into the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) framework. We estimate the model using data on the term premium. Our principal results include the following. First, the estimated segmentation coefficient implies a nontrivial effect of central bank asset purchases on yields and real activity. Second, there are welfare gains to having the central bank respond to the term premium, e.g., including the term premium in the Taylor Rule. Third, a policy that directly targets the term premium sterilizes the real economy from shocks originating in the financial sector. A term-premium peg can have significant welfare effects.","wordCount":125,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Charles T. Carlstrom","Timothy S. Fuerst","Matthias Paustian"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150179","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-70e9410dd864b4bb","title":"Glued to the TV: Distracted Noise Traders and Stock Market Liquidity","abstract":"In this paper, we study the impact of noise traders’ limited attention on financial markets. Specifically, we exploit episodes of sensational news (exogenous to the market) that distract noise traders. We find that on “distraction days,” trading activity, liquidity, and volatility decrease, and prices reverse less among stocks owned predominantly by noise traders. These outcomes contrast sharply with those due to the inattention of informed speculators and market makers, and are consistent with noise traders mitigating adverse selection risk. We discuss the evolution of these outcomes over time and the role of technological changes.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Joël Peress","Daniel Schmidt"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12863","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-70ebe0be57f7e8bf","title":"Not So Natural an Alliance? Degrowth and Environmental Justice Movements in the Global South","abstract":"Both environmental justice (EJ) and degrowth movements warn against increasing the physical size of the economy. They both oppose extractivism and debt-fuelled economies, as well as the untrammelled profit motive which fails to incorporate full environmental and social costs. They both rely upon social movements that have led scholarship in its activities and achievements, in part through challenging power structures. Therefore, some argue the existence of an obvious alliance between degrowth and EJ movements in the Global South. Yet, direct observation unveils concerns from EJ activists in the Global South about the plausibility of alliances until some significant divergences have been examined and reconciled. Activists inspire, promote and disseminate transformations that overcome several forms of domination. Their perspectives on degrowth advance informed cooperation. Our aim is thus to systematically evaluate tensions and possible analogies between the scope of action of EJ organisations operating in the Global South and the main propositions of the Degrowth movement. The argument relies on methodical scrutiny of core themes in the degrowth debate by critical thinkers in the Global South. It incorporates insights from EJ struggles in Ecuador, Italy, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uruguay, with important implications in Brazil, Mozambique, and Indonesia. The paper contributes to an exploration of the implications of the degrowth debate for the Global South, with the purpose of strengthening potential synergies, through an assertive recognition of the barriers to doing so.","wordCount":231,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Beatriz Rodríguez‐Labajos","Ivonne Yánez","Patrick Bond","Lucie Greyl","Serah Munguti","Godwin Uyi Ojo","Winfridus Overbeek"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.11.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-70f3bb698273ed93","title":"Italy and the Little Divergence in Wages and Prices: New Data, New Results","abstract":"We present new wage indices for skilled and unskilled construction workers in Italy. Our data avoid multiple issues pestering earlier wages, making our new indices the first consistent ones for early-modern Italy. Our improved wages, obtained from the St. Peter’s Church in Rome, consolidate the view that urban Italy began a prolonged downturn during the seventeenth century. They also offer sustenance to the idea that epidemics instigated the decline. Comparison with new construction wages for London shows that Roman workers outearned their early-modern English counterparts. This suggests that high wages alone were not enough to trigger industrialization.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Mauro Rota","Jacob Weisdorf"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000467","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-711cc98f9291403d","title":"CEO-board dynamics","abstract":"We examine CEO-board dynamics using a new panel dataset that spans 1920 to 2011. The long sample allows us to perform within-firm and within-CEO tests over a long horizon, many for the first time in the governance literature. Consistent with theories of bargaining or dynamic contracting, we find board independence increases at CEO turnover and falls with CEO tenure, with the decline stronger following superior performance. CEOs are also more likely to be appointed board chair as tenure increases, and we find evidence consistent with a substitution between board independence and chair duality. Other results suggest that these classes of models fail to capture important elements of board dynamics. First, the magnitude of the CEO tenure effect is economically small, much smaller, for example, than the strong persistence in board structure that we show. Second, when external CEOs are hired, board independence falls and subsequently increases. Third, event studies show a positive market reaction when powerful CEOs die in office, consistent with powerful CEOs becoming entrenched.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["John R. Graham","Hyunseob Kim","Mark T. Leary"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.04.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7121c490db335cc8","title":"What can we learn about the effect of mental health on labor market outcomes under weak assumptions? Evidence from the NLSY79","abstract":"We employ a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound the causal effect of poor mental health on employment and earnings using the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979. Our approach allows us to provide bounds on the population average treatment effect based on relatively weak, credible assumptions. We find that being categorized as depressed decreases employment by 10% and earnings by 27% at most, but we cannot statistically rule out a zero effect. We also provide insights into the heterogeneity of the effects on labor market outcomes at different levels of adverse mental health experienced (no, little, mild, moderate, and severe depressive symptoms). We find that going from having no (little) to severe depressive symptoms reduces employment by 3–18% (3–16%) and earnings by 11–44% (12–36%). The estimated bounds statistically rule out null effects for earnings but not for employment.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Giuseppe Germinario","Vikesh Amin","Carlos A. Flores","Alfonso Flores‐Lagunes"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102258","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-71411d3910593f84","title":"Human Capital Formation During the First Industrial Revolution: Evidence from the use of Steam Engines","abstract":"We examine the effect of technical change on human capital formation during England's Industrial Revolution. Using the number of steam engines installed by 1800 as a synthetic indicator of technological change and occupational statistics to measure working skills (using HISCLASS), we establish a positive correlation between the use of steam engines and the share of skilled workers at the county level. We use exogenous variation in carboniferous rock strata (containing coal to fuel the engines) to show that the effect was causal. While technological change stimulated the formation of working skills, it had an overall negative effect on the formation of primary education, captured by literacy and school enrolment rates. It also led to higher gender inequality in literacy.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Alexandra de Pleijt","Alessandro Nuvolari","Jacob Weisdorf"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz006","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-7144af9e9cb22640","title":"Two worlds of female labour: gender wage inequality in western Europe, 1300–1800<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"Labour market engagement by women is an important determinant of female autonomy that may also affect their demographic behaviour. In order to bring about the conditions for the female autonomy that characterized the European marriage pattern (in which women had a say in the decision about when and whom they marry), women needed to earn a decent wage. This is clearly affected by the gender wage ratio and the possibility of women earning their own living and having the option of remaining single. So far no attempt has been made to compare the wages of women across Europe over the long run. In this article we provide evidence on the wages of unskilled women for seven European countries (represented by cities or regions within these countries) between 1300 and 1800. Our evidence shows that there were two worlds of female labour. In the south of Europe women earned about 50 per cent of the wage of unskilled male labourers, a ratio that seems to have been fixed by custom. In the northern and western parts of Europe this ratio was much higher during late medieval period, but it showed a declining trend between about 1500 and 1800, a change that was caused by market forces.","wordCount":205,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Alexandra de Pleijt","Jan Luiten van Zanden"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13045","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-714909520e968dc1","title":"The Return to Protectionism","abstract":"After decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the United States raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Prices of imports targeted by tariffs did not fall, implying complete pass-through of tariffs to duty-inclusive prices. The resulting losses to U.S. consumers and firms that buy imports was $51 billion, or 0.27% of GDP. We embed the estimated trade elasticities in a general-equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. After accounting for tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers, the aggregate real income loss was $7.2 billion, or 0.04% of GDP. Import tariffs favored sectors concentrated in politically competitive counties, and the model implies that tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties were the most negatively affected due to the retaliatory tariffs. JEL Code: F1.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Pablo Fajgelbaum","Pinelopi Goldberg","Patrick Kennedy","Amit Khandelwal"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz036","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7153dacdf8224699","title":"The Competitive Effects of Transmission Infrastructure in the Indian Electricity Market","abstract":"The integration of markets may improve efficiency by lowering costs or reducing local market power. India, seeking to reduce electricity shortages, set up a new power market, in which transmission constraints sharply limit trade between regions. During congested hours, measures of market competitiveness fall and firms raise bid prices. I use confidential bidding data to estimate the costs of power supply and simulate market outcomes with more transmission capacity. Counterfactual simulations show that transmission expansion increases market surplus by 22 percent, enough to justify the investment. One-third of this gain is due to sellers’ response to a more integrated grid.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Nicholas Ryan"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180191","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-715ff8a622228dc3","title":"Opportunity cost neglect in public policy","abstract":"Opportunity cost is the foregone benefit of options not chosen. If opportunity costs are neglected in decisions about public policy, there is a high risk that the best options are overlooked. We study opportunity cost neglect in public policy in experiments with members of the general public in Sweden and international experts on priority setting in health care (n = 957). We find strong evidence of opportunity cost neglect in public policy, where participants who acted in the role of policy makers were between six and ten percentage points less likely to invest in a public health program when reminded about opportunity costs (money could fund other health programs). To our surprise, we failed to confirm an effect consistent with opportunity cost neglect in private consumption; but exploratory analyses revealed a substantial age effect that reconciles our findings with previous literature. Young participants showed opportunity cost neglect, while the effect was reversed for old participants. The implications of opportunity cost neglect for public policy are substantial, including misallocation of public resources and an artificially high demand for public spending.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Emil Persson","Gustav Tinghög"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.12.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-717210dec2f2105d","title":"Expectations, gender, and choking under pressure: Evidence from alpine skiing","abstract":"In alpine skiing competitions, one of the coaches of the participating countries sets the course. This may provide an advantage, but it may also exert higher pressure on the racers. We analyze 45,467 men’s and 41,221 women’s performances from all competitions in alpine skiing’s Slalom, Giant Slalom, and Super Giant disciplines that took place in the World Cups, World Championships, and Olympic Games between the 2001/2002 and 2019/2020 seasons. We compare the performance of racers when competing on a course that was set by their compatriot to the performance of the same racers in the same season when the course was set by a coach from another country. Having a compatriot course setter only has an effect in the second (and decisive) run of the most technical discipline Slalom. We find that men fail significantly more often to complete their run when their compatriots set the course, whereas women fail significantly less in the same situation. The most likely drivers of our results relate to gender differences in response to expectations and choking under pressure in skill-based tasks.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Christoph Bühren","Martin Gschwend","Alex Krumer"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102692","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7175f20346c15674","title":"Do Higher Minimum Wages Benefit Health? Evidence From the UK","abstract":"This study examines the link between minimum wages and health outcomes by using the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) in the United Kingdom in 1999 as an exogenous variation of earned income. A test for health effects by using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey for a period of ten years was conducted. It was found that the NMW significantly improved several measures of health, including self-reported health status and the presence of health conditions. When examining potential mechanisms, it was shown that changes in health behaviors, leisure expenditures, and financial stress can explain the observed improvements in health.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Otto Lenhart"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-717df8de1672d913","title":"Can we forecast better in periods of low uncertainty? The role of technical indicators","abstract":"We examine the importance of periods of high versus low financial uncertainty when forecasting stock market returns with technical predictors. Our results suggest that technical predictors perform better in periods of low financial uncertainty and should be avoided due to poor forecasting performance in periods of heightened uncertainty. In-sample, we report disentangled R2 statistics, and out-of-sample we show these results continue when forecasting the equity risk premium. We show similar results when forecasting the volatility of returns with technical predictors. We measure periods of heightened and low financial uncertainty in a regime switching framework. Overall, our results provide insight into the mechanism that suggests that, when uncertainty rises, investors’ opinions polarize leading to a breakdown of predictability based on technical indicators.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["María Ferrer Fernández","Ólan T. Henry","Sam Pybis","Michalis P. Stamatogiannis"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.12.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-717f1343305dec31","title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium","abstract":"This paper studies a quantitative general equilibrium model of housing. The model has two key elements not previously considered in existing quantitative macro studies of housing finance: aggregate business cycle risk and a realistic wealth distribution driven in the model by bequest heterogeneity in preferences. These features of the model play a crucial role in the following results. First, a relaxation of financing constraints leads to a large boom in house prices. Second, the boom in house prices is entirely the result of a decline in the housing risk premium. Third, low interest rates cannot explain high home values.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Jack Favilukis","Sydney C. Ludvigson","Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689606","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-71838ee83e7c8e94","title":"Do gender diverse boards enhance managerial ability?","abstract":"We examine the link between board gender diversity and managerial ability to transform corporate resources into revenue. Drawing on a sample of U.S firms during the period 2001–2016, we find a positive and economically meaningful association between female directors on boards and managerial ability, particularly when female directors are in monitoring roles on the board. The documented effect is stronger when using a tenure weighted measure of female representation on boards; and more pronounced for firms that have three or more women on the board of directors, in line with the critical mass hypothesis. We uncover that critical mass of female directors in monitoring roles is particularly conducive to enhancing managerial ability. Our channel analysis tests further reveal a distinctive tendency of firms with more gender diverse boards to shape the human capital of the firm by promoting managers with more generalist managerial skills. We find consistent results when we employ propensity score matching estimates and difference-in-differences using sudden deaths of female directors as a potential shock to address endogeneity concerns. We discuss implications for theory and policy.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Ghasan Baghdadi","Md Safiullah","Mariano L.M. Heyden"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102364","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-718cad05f50f18c5","title":"Does gender diversity on banks' boards matter? Evidence from public bailouts","abstract":"We are the first to examine the impact of gender diversity on banks' boards on the probability and size of public bailouts. Our findings, based on a sample of listed European banks over the period 2005–2017, suggest that banks with more gender-diverse boards are less likely to receive a public bailout and receive a lower amount of bailout funds as a percentage of total assets than banks with less gender-diverse boards. Specifically, an increase by one standard deviation in gender diversity decreases the probability of a bailout by at least 2.44%, a significant reduction considering that the unconditional probability is 18.7%. Gender diversity is also positively related to bank performance, as proxied by ROA and Tobin's Q and with dividend payout ratios, consistent with the hypothesis that female directors are better monitors than male directors. These results are robust to a variety of econometric approaches and provide support for recent reforms in several EU countries regarding gender quotas.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Giovanni Cardillo","Enrico Onali","Giuseppe Torluccio"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101560","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-719ca349e1322e6c","title":"Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments","abstract":"We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of individuals, with positive expectations feedback through speculative demand. When prices deviate from fundamental value, a random selection of participants receives news about overvaluation. Our findings are: (i) large asset bubbles are robust in large groups, (ii) information contagion through news affects behaviour and may break the coordination on a bubble, (iii) time varying heterogeneity provides an explanation of bubble formation and crashes, and (iv) bubbles are strongly amplified by coordination on trend-extrapolation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Cars Hommes","Anita Kopányi-Peuker","Joep Sonnemans"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09664-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-719d8e19e2c94af4","title":"The stability of self-control in a population-representative study","abstract":"We investigate the stability of self-control at the population level. Analyzing repeated Brief Self-Control Scale scores, we demonstrate that self-control exhibits a high degree of mean-level, rank-order, and individual-level stability over the medium term. Changes in self-control are not associated with major life events, nor are they economically important. The stability of self-control is particularly striking given that our study period (2017–2020) spans the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.","wordCount":69,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Deborah A. Cobb‐Clark","Nancy Kong","Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102599","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-71ae2fd253352f17","title":"Tax Evasion and Inequality","abstract":"Drawing on a unique dataset of leaked customer lists from offshore financial institutions matched to administrative wealth records in Scandinavia, we show that offshore tax evasion is highly concentrated among the rich. The skewed distribution of offshore wealth implies high rates of tax evasion at the top: we find that the 0.01 percent richest households evade about 25 percent of their taxes. By contrast, tax evasion detected in stratified random tax audits is less than 5 percent throughout the distribution. Top wealth shares increase substantially when accounting for unreported assets, highlighting the importance of factoring in tax evasion to properly measure inequality.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Annette Alstadsæter","Niels Johannesen","Gabriel Zucman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20172043","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-71b1f4ce5c980077","title":"Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches","abstract":"This paper studies the informational content of speeches of Fed officials, focusing on financial stability, from 1997 to 2018. We construct indicators that measure the intensity and tone of this topic for both Governors and FRB presidents. When added to a standard forward-looking Taylor rule, a higher topic intensity or negative tone is associated with more monetary policy accommodation than implied by the state of the economy. Our results are mainly driven by the sample prior to the global financial crisis and the information in speeches of FRB presidents. We discuss several channels to account for these findings.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Klodiana Istrefi","Florens Odendahl","Giulia Sestieri"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106820","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-71b29de41e7f9daa","title":"Newspapers in Times of Low Advertising Revenues","abstract":"We model the consequences on newspapers’ content and prices of a reduction in advertising revenues. Newspapers choose the size of their newsroom, and readers are heterogeneous in their ideal amount of journalistic-intensive content. We show that a reduction in advertising revenues lowers newspapers’ incentives to produce journalistic-intensive content. We also build a unique dataset on French newspapers between 1960 and 1974 and perform a difference-in-differences analysis exploiting the introduction of advertising on television, which affected national newspapers more severely than local ones. We find robust evidence of a decrease in the amount of journalistic-intensive content produced and the subscription price.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Charles Angelucci","Julia Cagé"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170306","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-71c4626275b6dc4f","title":"Facing famine: Somali experiences in the famine of 2011","abstract":"In 2011-12, Somalia experienced the worst famine of the twenty- first century. Since then, research on the famine has focused almost exclusively on the external response, the reasons for the delay in the international response, and the implications for international humanitarian action in the context of the \"global war on terror.\" This paper focuses on the internal, Somali response to the famine. Themes of diversification, mobility and flexibility are all important to understanding how people coped with the famine, but this paper focuses on the factor that seemed to determine whether and how well people survived the famine: social connectedness, the extent of the social networks of affected populations, and the ability of these networks to mobilize resources. These factors ultimately determined how well people coped with the famine. The nature of reciprocity, the resources available within people's networks, and the collective risks and hazards faced within networks, all determined people's individual and household outcomes in the famine and are related to the social structures and social hierarchies within Somali society. But these networks had a distinctly negative side as well-social identity and social networks were also exploited to trap humanitarian assistance, turn displaced people into \"aid bait,\" and to a large degree, determined who benefited from aid once it started to flow. This paper addresses several questions: How did Somali communities and households cope with the famine of 2011 in the absence of any state-led response-and a significant delay in a major international response? What can be learned from these practices to improve our understanding of famine, and of mitigation, response and building resilience to future crises?","wordCount":268,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Daniel Maxwell","Nisar Majid","Guhad Adan","Khalif Abdirahman","Jeeyon Janet Kim"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.11.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-71ce1e0a06141e54","title":"Economic uncertainty, households’ credit situations, and higher education","abstract":"In this paper, we study the relationship between economic uncertainty, household credit situations, and educational outcomes. Using the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SYS-GMM) on educational and economic data from the World Bank and IMF, we find that economic uncertainty and households’ access to credit have positive impacts on higher education. Further analyses suggest that economic uncertainty and households’ access to credit have heterogeneous effects on educational outcomes at the tertiary level, by gender and development status. Specifically, we find that economic uncertainties expand enrollments in developed countries and contract them in developing economies. In addition, access to credit has a more pronounced positive impact on educational outcomes in developing nations compared to developed ones. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that household credit coupled with economic uncertainty decreases women’s educational outcomes in higher education, posing a serious threat to gender equality in higher education. Lastly, we find that monetary policy appears to play a role in these results. These findings remain robust to alternative proxies of economic uncertainty and approach such as the Instrumental Variable (IV) regression method, which uses a political database on government changes and ideological gaps between cabinets as instruments. In general, the findings emphasize the enduring influence of economic uncertainties, typically associated with business cycles, on long-term aspects such as education.","wordCount":214,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Niraj P. Koirala","Dhiroj Prasad Koirala","Linus Nyiwul","Zhining Hu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103598","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-71df86d8d47847f6","title":"Housing markets in a pandemic: Evidence from historical outbreaks","abstract":"How do pandemics affect urban housing markets? This paper studies historical outbreaks of the plague in 17th-century Amsterdam and cholera in 19th-century Paris to answer this question. Based on micro-level transaction data, we show outbreaks resulted in large declines in house prices, and smaller declines in rent prices. We find particularly large reductions in house prices during the first six months of an epidemic, and in heavily-affected areas. However, these price shocks were only transitory, and both cities quickly reverted to their initial price paths. Our findings suggest these two cities were very resilient to major shocks originating from epidemics.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Marc Francke","Matthijs Korevaar"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103333","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7208c9a5fdce3579","title":"Learning and information transmission within multinational corporations","abstract":"Firms face substantial uncertainty when doing business in new markets. We propose that multinational firms use “cross-market learning” to resolve such uncertainties. We develop a model of firm-level expectations formation with noisy signals from multiple markets and derive predictions on market entries and expectations formation over the firm’s life cycle. Using a novel dataset of Japanese multinational corporations that includes sales expectations of each affiliate, we provide supportive evidence for the model’s predictions. We find that firms rely on their performance in nearby markets to predict their profitability in a new market and make entry decisions. Such “cross-market” learning is less important after the firm has accumulated experience in the new market, but becomes more important if the uncertainty of the focal market is high or the firm has received more signals from the nearby markets.","wordCount":136,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Cheng Chen","Chang Sun","Hongyong Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.104016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7215f1128b4f4083","title":"Financial Reporting Frequency and Corporate Innovation","abstract":"We examine how the regulation of financial reporting frequency affects corporate innovation. We use a difference-in-differences approach based on a sample of treatment firms that experience a change in their reporting frequency and matched industry peers and control firms whose reporting frequency remains unchanged. We find that higher reporting frequency significantly reduces treatment firms’ innovation output but find no evidence that the net externality effect on industry peers is statistically significant. Together, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that frequent reporting induces managerial myopia and impedes corporate innovation.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Renhui Fu","Arthur Kraft","Xuan Tian","Huai Zhang","Luo Zuo"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/708706","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7217f09b5d685f5e","title":"Reducing the gender gap in early learning: Evidence from a field experiment in Norwegian preschools","abstract":"Substantial gender differences in key academic skills appear even before children start formal schooling. Although increasing investments in early-childhood programs is motivated by efforts to promote equality of opportunity in education, program attendance seems to have less effect on boys. In this field experiment, we investigate whether a more structured curriculum can help preschools reduce the gender gap in early learning. While girls have higher skills at baseline, we find that the intervention primarily benefits boys, thereby reducing the gender skill gap, with effects persisting into formal schooling.","wordCount":88,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Andreas Fidjeland","Mari Rege","Ingeborg Foldøy Solli","Ingunn Størksen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104413","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-721beaf9c4e173ce","title":"Mispricing Factors","abstract":"A four-factor model with two \"mispricing\" factors, in addition to market and size factors, accommodates a large set of anomalies better than notable four-and five-factor alternative models. Moreover, our size factor reveals a small-firm premium nearly twice usual estimates. The mispricing factors aggregate information across 11 prominent anomalies by averaging rankings within two clusters exhibiting the greatest return co-movement. Investor sentiment predicts the mispricing factors, especially their short legs, consistent with a mispricing interpretation and the asymmetry in ease of buying versus shorting. A three-factor model with a single mispricing factor also performs well, especially in Bayesian model comparisons.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Robert F. Stambaugh","Yu Yuan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw107","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-722c2462fea95d8e","title":"Optimal product variety in radio markets","abstract":"A vast theoretical literature explores inefficient market structures in free‐entry equilibria, and previous empirical work demonstrated that excessive entry may obtain in local radio markets. We extend that literature by relaxing the assumption that stations are symmetric, allowing for endogenous horizontal and (unobserved) vertical station differentiation. We find that, in most broadcasting formats, a social planner who takes into account the welfare of market participants eliminates 50%–60% of the observed stations. In 80%–94.9% of markets where high‐quality stations are observed, welfare could be unambiguously improved by converting one such station into low‐quality broadcasting, suggesting local overprovision of quality.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Steven Berry","Alon Eizenberg","Joel Waldfogel"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12134","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7233b1ab52e97aad","title":"Collusion, efficiency, and dominant strategies","abstract":"Green and Laffont proved that no collusion-resilient dominant-strategy mechanism, whose strategies consist of individual valuations, guarantees efficiency in multi-unit auctions. Chen and Micali bypassed this impossibility by slightly enlarging the strategy spaces, yet assuming knowledge of the maximum value a player may have for a copy of the good, and the ability of imposing high fines on the players. For unrestricted combinatorial auctions, efficiency in collusion-resilient dominant strategies has remained open, with or without the above two assumptions. We fully generalize the notion of a collusion-resilient dominant-strategy mechanism by allowing for arbitrary strategy spaces; construct one such mechanism for multi-unit auctions, without relying on the above two assumptions; and prove that no such mechanism exists for unrestricted combinatorial auctions, with or without any additional assumptions. Our results hold when the mechanism does not know who colludes with whom, and players in the same coalition can perfectly coordinate their strategies.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Alan Deckelbaum","Silvio Micali"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2016.03.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7233cbd787176eba","title":"Are lay expectations of inflation based on recall of specific prices? If so, how and under what conditions?","abstract":"In 2019 when inflation was low and stable, we compared people’s direct estimates of inflation with indirect estimates obtained by averaging their estimates of price changes in all 12 product categories on which the consumer price index is based. Indirect estimates were much higher than direct ones and the two types of estimate were uncorrelated. This is consistent with a price-free model in which direct estimates are not based on recall of prices but are determined by other information such as media reports. In May 2022 when inflation was high, expected to rise in the short-term, but highly unpredictable in the longer term, we found that direct and indirect estimates were very similar and highly correlated. This is consistent with a price-recall model in which a representative set of prices is used to estimate overall inflation. Finally, in September 2022 when inflation was fairly stable except for certain product categories (food) where prices were rising rapidly, we found that results were consistent with a third approach, the price-salience model; overall estimates of inflation are selectively influenced by price rises in those product categories where they are particularly high. People’s strategy for estimating inflation appears adapted to the prevailing inflation environment.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Xiaoxiao Niu","Nigel Harvey"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102662","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7237b784d1ff6752","title":"On the Geography of Global Value Chains","abstract":"This paper develops a multi‐stage general‐equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantifiable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs affect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional, or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Pol Antràs","Alonso de Gortari"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15362","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7237caafbcb200ef","title":"Payment for Environmental “Self-Service”: Exploring the Links Between Farmers' Motivation and Additionality in a Conservation Incentive Programme in the Bolivian Andes","abstract":"Neoclassical economic interpretations of Payment for Environmental Services (PES), which assume that participants weigh up costs and benefits, are making room for more complex analyses. However, there is still little evidence of how PES programmes interact with existing motivations to conserve, the extent to which funded conservation is additional, and the likely permanence of changes. We categorized the outcome of contracts aiming to reduce cattle grazing in riparian forest (n = 428) and deforestation (n = 912) by Bolivian farmers in terms of whether they were unsuitable, non-compliant, non-additional, or additional (the holy grail of PES programmes) and explored the relationship between farmers' reported motivations and the extent to which the conservation funded was additional. Up to 39% of contracts to exclude cattle, and 14% to prevent deforestation appear to be additional. Where participation is motivated by the instrumental values of nature (such as provision of clean water) contracts to exclude cattle from riparian forest are more likely to represent additional conservation. We suggest that the programme is partly acting as what we term ‘payment for environmental self-service’; i.e. the external incentives enable changes in behaviour motivated by farmers' perceptions of environmental benefits they receive from the management changes incentivized.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Patrick Bottazzi","Emma Wiik","David Crespo","Julia P. G. Jones"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.03.032","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-724ec6af780361cd","title":"Meritocracy versus diversity","abstract":"A college or firm makes admissions or hiring decisions for which each candidate is characterized by priority ranking and type, which might depend on race, gender, or socioeconomic status. The admissions or hiring committee faces a tradeoff between meritocracy and diversity: Although a merit-first choice rule might admit candidates of the same type, a diversity-first choice rule might be unfair because of priority violations. To formalize this tradeoff, we introduce a measure of meritocracy and a measure of diversity for choice rules. A choice rule that uses both reserves and quotas can be regarded as a compromise and as a generalization of the two extreme rules. The first result is comparative statics for this class of choice rules: We demonstrate that as parameters change and the choice rule becomes more meritorious, the rule also becomes less diverse. The second result is a characterization of the choice rule, which might help admissions or hiring committees to formulate their policies.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Kenzo Imamura"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.106047","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7251760418217b40","title":"Infant Health and Longevity: Evidence from A Historical Intervention in Sweden","abstract":"This paper investigates the potential of an infant intervention to improve life expectancy, contributing to emerging interest in the early life origins of chronic disease. We analyse a pioneering program trialled in Sweden in the 1930s, which provided information, support and monitoring of infant care. Using birth certificate data from parish records matched to death registers, we estimate that the average duration of program exposure in infancy led to a 1.54% point decline in the risk of infant death (23% of baseline risk) and a 2.37% decline in the risk of dying by age 75 (6.5% of baseline risk).","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Sonia Bhalotra","Martin Karlsson","Thérèse Nilsson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-725970ca683c045b","title":"Gender effects for loss aversion: Yes, no, maybe?","abstract":"Gender effects in risk taking have attracted much attention by economists, and remain debated. Loss aversion—the stylized finding that a given loss carries substantially greater weight than a monetarily equivalent gain—is a fundamental driver of risk aversion. We deploy four definitions of loss aversion commonly used in the literature to investigate gender effects. Even though the definitions only differ in subtle ways, we find women to be more loss averse than men according to one definition, while another definition results in no gender differences, and the remaining two definitions point to women being less loss averse than men. Conceptually, these contradictory effects can be organized by systematic measurement error resulting from model mis-specifications relative to the true underlying decision process.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Ranoua Bouchouicha","Lachlan Deer","Ashraf Galal Eid","Peter McGee","Daniel Schoch","Hrvoje Stojić","Jolanda Ygosse-Battisti","Ferdinand M. Vieider"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09315-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-725fba30c944e729","title":"Comparative Effects of Recreational and Medical Marijuana Laws on Drug Use among Adults and Adolescents","abstract":"Thirty-four states have medical marijuana laws, and 10 states have recreational marijuana laws. Little research compares how these two types of laws affect drug consumption in the general population or in particular age groups. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that recreational laws increase past-year marijuana use by 25 percent among adults and by 10 percent among adolescents. In contrast, medical laws increase adult use by only 5 percent and have a negligible effect on adolescent use. We also find that recreational marijuana dispensaries are an important driver of the increase in marijuana use for adults 26 and older. Our results suggest that medical laws succeed in mitigating recreational (nonmedical) use, that recreational laws produce large increases in marijuana use in the general population, and that underage marijuana use may be an important problem with existing implementations of recreational marijuana laws.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Alex Hollingsworth","Coady Wing","Ashley C. Bradford"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/721267","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-728e51c41f2203df","title":"Understanding the Price Effects of the MillerCoors Joint Venture","abstract":"We document abrupt increases in retail beer prices just after the consummation of the MillerCoors joint venture, both for MillerCoors and its major competitor, Anheuser‐Busch. Within the context of a differentiated‐products pricing model, we test and reject the hypothesis that the price increases can be explained by movement from one Nash–Bertrand equilibrium to another. Counterfactual simulations imply that prices after the joint venture are 6%–8% higher than they would have been with Nash–Bertrand competition, and that markups are 17%–18% higher. We relate the results to documentary evidence that the joint venture may have facilitated price coordination.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Nathan Miller","Matthew Weinberg"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13333","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-72903a1aac674e8c","title":"Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle","abstract":"The effects of macroprudential policy on portfolio flows vary considerably across the global financial cycle. A tighter ex-ante macroprudential stance amplifies the impact of global risk shocks on bond and equity flows, increasing outflows significantly more during risk-off episodes and increasing inflows significantly more during risk-on episodes. These amplification effects are more prominent at the “extremes,” especially for extreme risk-off periods and for regulations that target specific risks instead of generalized cyclical buffers. This paper estimates these relationships using a policy-shocks approach that corrects for reverse causality by combining high-frequency risk measures with weekly data on portfolio investment and a new measure of macroprudential regulations that captures the intensity of policy stances. Overall, the results support a growing body of evidence that macroprudential regulation can reduce the volume and volatility of bank flows but shift risks in ways that aggravate vulnerabilities in other parts of the financial system.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Anusha Chari","Karlye Dilts-Stedman","Kristin J. Forbes"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103582","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-72972e9a60c3e56e","title":"Applying the Degree of Urbanisation to the globe: A new harmonised definition reveals a different picture of global urbanisation","abstract":"The Degree of Urbanisation is a new definition of cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission. The urban population share according to the Degree of Urbanisation is similar to the one based on national definitions in the Americas, Europe and Oceania, but considerably higher in Africa and Asia. An empirical analysis and a comparison of concepts suggest that towns are likely to be classified as rural areas in Africa and Asia and as urban areas in other parts of the world. The paper shows that cities cover only a small share of land, but this share doubled over the past forty years, as has the number of cities. Although cities have expanded rapidly, their population grew even faster leading to higher densities. The paper tests two classic urban facts: 1) the cities and towns as defined by the Degree of Urbanisation closely follow Zipf's law 2) the population shares in urban areas, cities and especially metropolitan areas are positively and significantly correlated with the level of economic development. Lastly, the sensitivity of the classification of population and land are tested by varying the population size and density thresholds as well using a different global population grid.","wordCount":203,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Lewis Dijkstra","Aneta J. Florczyk","Sérgio Freire","Thomas Kemper","Michele Melchiorri","Martino Pesaresi","Marcello Schiavina"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103312","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-729b06d44d7a0ead","title":"Online tutoring works: Experimental evidence from a program with vulnerable children","abstract":"We provide evidence from a randomized controlled trial on the effectiveness of a novel, 100-percent online math tutoring program, targeted at secondary school students from highly disadvantaged neighborhoods. The intensive, eight-week-long program was delivered in groups of two students during after-school hours, mostly by qualified math teachers. The intervention significantly increased standardized test scores (+0.26 SD) and end-of-year math grades (+0.49 SD), while reducing the probability of repeating the school year. The intervention also raised aspirations, as well as self-reported effort at school. The two-on-one design allows us to significantly reduce costs and improve scalability, while showing similar results as one-on-one tutoring programs.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Lúcas Gortazar","Claudia Hupkau","Antonio Roldán-Monés"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105082","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-729fa03564e89769","title":"On a World Climate Assembly and the Social Cost of Carbon","abstract":"This paper argues that a uniform global tax‐like price on carbon emissions, whose revenues each country retains, can provide a focal point for a reciprocal common climate commitment, whereas quantity targets, which do not nearly so readily present such a single focal point, tend to rely ultimately on individual quantity commitments. The paper postulates the conceptually useful allegory of a futuristic ‘World Climate Assembly’ (WCA) that votes for a single worldwide price on carbon emissions via the basic democratic principle of one person, one vote majority rule. A WCA‐like uniform price‐tax counters self‐interest by incentivizing countries or agents to internalize the externality because each WCA agent's higher abatement cost from a higher emissions price is counterbalanced by that agent's extra benefit from inducing all other WCA agents to simultaneously lower their emissions in response to the higher price. The paper derives fresh insights and new simple formulae that relate each emitter's most‐preferred world price of carbon to the world ‘social cost of carbon’ (SCC), and further relates the WCA‐voted world price of carbon to the world SCC. Some implications are discussed. The overall methodology of the paper is a mixture of mostly classical with some behavioural economics.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Martin L. Weitzman"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12248","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-72a8789c36e6be49","title":"Well‐Being, Deprivation, and the Great Recession in the U.S.: A Study in A Multidimensional Framework","abstract":"We study changes in social well‐being and deprivation in the U.S. during the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery. We outline an analytical framework for measuring well‐being and deprivation in a multidimensional fashion when data on achievement in each dimension is assumed to be ordinal and binary in nature. We use data from the American Community Survey between 2008 and 2015 and find that there was a decline in social well‐being and a rise in social deprivation in the U.S. during the recession followed by a reversal of trends during the recovery. Despite low deprivation levels among the White population, this population experienced the largest increase in deprivation during the recession and the least decline in deprivation in the recovery period. These results underscore the fact that the impact of recession and the subsequent recovery varied significantly across population groups.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Shatakshee Dhongde","Prasanta K. Pattanaik","Yongsheng Xu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12411","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-72a9730eac58a813","title":"Risk and rationality: The relative importance of probability weighting and choice set dependence","abstract":"The literature suggests that probability weighting and choice set dependence influence risky choices. However, their relative importance remains an open question. We present a joint test that uses binary choices between lotteries provoking Common Consequence and Common Ratio Allais Paradoxes and manipulates their joint payoff distribution. We show non-parametrically that probability weighting and choice set dependence both play a role at describing aggregate choices. To parsimoniously account for heterogeneity, we also estimate a structural model using a finite mixture approach. The model uncovers substantial heterogeneity and classifies subjects into three types: 38% Prospect Theory types whose choices are predominantly driven by probability weighting, 34% Salience Theory types whose choices are predominantly driven by choice set dependence, and 28% Expected Utility Theory types. The model predicts type-specific differences in the frequency of preference reversals out-of-sample, i.e., in choices with a different context than the ones used for estimating the model. Moreover, the out-of-sample predictions indicate that the choice context shapes the influence of choice set dependence.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Adrian Bruhin","Maha Manai","Luís Santos‐Pinto"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09392-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-72b6c349476f90bb","title":"Financial cycles and domestic policy choices","abstract":"The global financial cycle has raised concerns about the ability of emerging markets to insulate their economy from international spillovers. Using dynamic Local Projections we show that capital controls are as potent as floating exchange rates in dampening the response of international financial shocks on domestic financial variables and the real economy. We relate this finding to muted boom–bust cycles in short-term non-resident capital flows. However, the benefits of floats or capital controls are reaped in isolation, that is, either tool is enough. We attribute this pattern to nominal frictions in domestic labor markets.","wordCount":94,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Florian Loipersberger","Johannes Matschke"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104034","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-72bae6f5297368ae","title":"Chips in on a merger: The Arm-Nvidia case","abstract":"This paper analyzes the Nvidia-Arm vertical merger through the lens of the recent literature in Industrial Organization. It explores potential competitive concerns surrounding market foreclosure, technological access, and exclusionary behavior, considering the dynamic semiconductor industry's intricacies. Although limited public information is available due to the parties halting the merger during phase two, I propose four theories of competitive effects addressing issues such as vertical foreclosure in dynamic markets, stifling of innovation due to hold-up concerns, and the ecosystem effects of the merger. This discussion sheds light on the potential impact of this merger in the semiconductor industry on competition in innovative high tech markets such as CPUs, datacenters, gaming consoles, and assisted driving.","wordCount":113,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Helena Perrone"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103130","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-72e7729a7e292b29","title":"The effect of legalizing retail marijuana on housing values: Evidence from colorado","abstract":"Does legalizing retail marijuana generate more benefits than costs? This paper provides a first step toward addressing that question by measuring the benefits and costs that are capitalized into housing values. We exploit the time‐series and cross‐sectional variations in the adoption of Colorado's municipality retail marijuana laws (RMLs) and examine the effect on housing values with a difference‐in‐differences strategy. Our estimates show that the legalization leads to an average 6% increase in housing values, indicating that the capitalized benefits outweigh the costs. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that this relatively large housing value appreciation is likely due to RMLs inducing strong housing demand while having no discernible effect on housing supply. Finally, we show that the effect of RMLs is heterogeneous across locations and property types.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Cheng Cheng","Walter J. Mayer","Yanling G. Mayer"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12556","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-72ea29efcfc85610","title":"The labour market outcomes of transgender individuals","abstract":"This paper uses the 2015 United States Transgender Survey of 27,715 transgender respondents to study the relationship between minority gender identity status and income, employment, and poverty rates. All transgender groups have significantly lower incomes and are more likely to be in poverty, unemployed or working part-time, when compared with men in the American Community Survey. Within the transgender sample, those who were assigned female at birth have significantly lower incomes and are more likely to work part-time than those assigned male at birth. These income results are sensitive to the degree to which respondents have socially transitioned. The younger transgender people transition and the greater their ability to ‘pass’, the more their income profiles reflect that of their gender identity rather than the sex they were assigned at birth. Together, these findings provide descriptive evidence in support of a traditional cisgender income gap, with ‘maleness’ being associated with an income premium in the workplace over ‘femaleness’.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Matthew Shannon"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-73082927255845ba","title":"The impact of energy prices on industrial investment location: Evidence from global firm level data","abstract":"This study examines the influence of relative energy prices on the geographical distribution of industrial investments across 41 countries. Employing a gravity model framework to analyse firms’ investment location decisions, we estimate the model using global bilateral investment flows derived from firm-level M&A data. Our findings reveal that a 10% increase in the energy price differential between two countries results in a 3.2% rise in cross-border acquisitions. This effect is most pronounced in energy-intensive industries and transactions targeting emerging economies. Furthermore, policy simulations suggest that the impact of unilateral carbon pricing on cross-border investments is modest.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Aurélien Saussay","Misato Sato"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102992","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-73194c26fb77c3f7","title":"Can guest workers solve japan's fiscal problems?","abstract":"The labor force in Japan is projected to fall from 64 million in 2014 to 20 million in 2100, signaling unprecedented tax/transfer adjustments to achieve fiscal sustainability. In this paper, we develop a quantitative overlapping generations model to measure the impact of guest worker programs in Japan. Against a baseline general equilibrium transition in which the consumption tax adjusts to achieve fiscal sustainability, we compute alternative transitions with guest worker programs. Depending on the size and skill distribution of guest workers, these programs may mitigate Japan's fiscal imbalance problem with a relatively manageable increase in the consumption tax.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Selahattın İmrohoroğlu","Sagiri Kitao","Tomoaki Yamada"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12439","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-73280c086a682f39","title":"Maximum likelihood estimation of the Hull–White model","abstract":"We suggest a maximum likelihood estimation method for the popular Hull–White interest rate model. Our method uses a time series of yield curves to estimate model parameters under both risk-neutral and real-world measures. The suggested approach thus offers a solution to two possible drawbacks of calibration to prices of vanilla interest rate derivatives, the current standard for identification of time-inhomogeneous interest rate models. First, our method allows for derivatives pricing on illiquid markets where prices of vanilla products, which the model is calibrated to, are not available. Second, as we identify the real-world measure, we facilitate the use of the Hull–White model for forecasting and hence risk and portfolio management. The main idea of our approach is to maximise the likelihood of yields in periods subsequent to the time at which the model’s time-dependent parameter is fitted to a market forward rate curve. The empirical part of the paper implements the suggested estimation approach on EUR interest rate data. We investigate in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the estimated model, and compare estimation with calibration to swaption prices.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Kamil Kladívko","Tomáš Rusý"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.12.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7334464e5f9636d5","title":"Asymmetric and endogenous within-group communication in competitive coordination games","abstract":"Within-group communication in competitive coordination games has been shown to increase competition between groups and lower efficiency. This study further explores potentially harmful effects of communication, by addressing the questions of (1) asymmetric communication and (2) the endogenous emergence of communication. Our theoretical analysis provides testable hypotheses regarding the effect of communication on competitive behavior and efficiency. We test these predictions using a laboratory experiment. The experiment shows that although asymmetric communication is not as harmful as symmetric communication, it leads to more aggressive competition and lower efficiency relative to the case when neither group can communicate. Moreover, groups vote to endogenously establish communication channels even though they would earn higher payoffs if jointly they chose to restrict within-group communication.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Timothy N. Cason","Roman M. Sheremeta","Jingjing Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9519-2","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-733c103424052324","title":"The impact of fintech innovation on green growth in China: Mediating effect of green finance","abstract":"Although green growth has become the economic development strategy of many countries in the world, and studies have analyzed the influencing factors of green growth from multiple angles, there are few literatures devoted to the impact of fintech and green finance on green growth. From the perspective of fintech development, this paper tries to construct a comprehensive index to evaluate the green growth of regional economy based on the in-depth analysis of the influence mechanism of green finance on green growth. At the same time, China's provincial panel data from 2011 to 2018 are selected to test the impact of fintech innovation and green finance on green growth, and its mechanism. It turns out that fintech and green finance significantly promotes green economic growth. At the same time, the impact of fintech and green finance on green growth has obvious regional heterogeneity, that is, the impact in eastern China is significantly stronger than that in central and western China. Further research shows that fintech innovation mainly promotes green economic growth through green credit and green investment. Therefore, fintech innovation can promote green economic growth by improving the development level of green finance, which has great reference significance for most countries.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Guangyou Zhou","Jieyu Zhu","Sumei Luo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107308","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-734bf038aef39915","title":"What Doesn't Kill You Will Only Make You More Risk‐Loving: Early‐Life Disasters and CEO Behavior","abstract":"The literature on managerial style posits a linear relation between a chief executive officer's (CEOs) past experiences and firm risk. We show that there is a nonmonotonic relation between the intensity of CEOs’ early‐life exposure to fatal disasters and corporate risk‐taking. CEOs who experience fatal disasters without extremely negative consequences lead firms that behave more aggressively, whereas CEOs who witness the extreme downside of disasters behave more conservatively. These patterns manifest across various corporate policies including leverage, cash holdings, and acquisition activity. Ultimately, the link between CEOs’ disaster experience and corporate policies has real economic consequences on firm riskiness and cost of capital.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Gennaro Bernile","Vineet Bhagwat","P. Raghavendra Rau"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12432","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-734d26c806939857","title":"Legal institutionalism: Capitalism and the constitutive role of law","abstract":"Social scientists have paid insufficient attention to the role of law in constituting the economic institutions of capitalism. Part of this neglect emanates for inadequate conceptions of the nature of law itself. Spontaneous conceptions of law and property rights that downplay the role of the state are criticized here, because they typically assume relatively small numbers of agents and underplay the complexity and uncertainty in developed capitalist systems. In developed capitalist economies, law is sustained through interaction between private agents, courts and the legislative apparatus. Law is also a key institution for overcoming contracting uncertainties. It is furthermore a part of the power structure of society, and a major means by which power is exercised. This argument is illustrated by considering institutions such as property and the firm. Complex systems of law have played a crucial role in capitalist development and are also vital for developing economies.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Simon Deakin","David Gindis","Geoffrey M. Hodgson","Huang Kainan","Katharina Pistor"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2016.04.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-734e7129b1e6428b","title":"Measuring preferences over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty","abstract":"Timing premia measure how much consumption people are willing to forgo to resolve all consumption uncertainty immediately. We develop a novel experiment to elicit these attitudes directly in a model-free way. On average, subjects forgo around 5% of their total consumption to resolve all uncertainty immediately. Recursive utility models postulate a structural link between timing premia and deep preference parameters. We elicit these preference parameters separately and estimate corresponding predicted timing premia. Comparing directly elicited and predicted timing premia allows us to test this structural link. Surprisingly, we find a negative correlation between predicted and elicited timing premia.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Thomas Meißner","Philipp Pfeiffer"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105379","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-735ce75c6d5940d1","title":"Inheritance Institutions and Landholding Inequality in Nineteenth-Century Germany: Evidence from Hesse-Cassel Villages and Towns","abstract":"This paper considers the German principality of Hesse-Cassel in the 1850s, comparing inheritance institutions and landholding inequality for roughly a thousand mostly agricultural villages and towns. The principality lay between impartible northern Europe and the partible southwest. Inequality in landholding size is measured, showing an average Gini of 0.615 and substantial variation across communities. Places with relatively larger populations and ones that practiced impartible inheritance had mostly higher wealth inequality. The main result is that inheritance norms played a role in causing higher landholding inequality. Higher emigration rates in the impartible communities helped to alleviate landholding inequality.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Simone A. Wegge"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050721000358","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7387aab26ed838b3","title":"Quasi‐Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Health Information on Preventive Behaviour in Europe","abstract":"We investigate the effect of information on preventive decisions in a quasi‐experimental setting arising from the implementation of local breast cancer screening programmes in Europe. To identify the causal effect of invitation on preventive uptake, we link administrative public data on regional screening policies to individual data from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and exploit regional variation in the availability of screening policies and in age eligibility criteria. We find home invitation increases mammography uptakes by around 24%. Significant effects are found when at least 50% of the population is reached by the invitation letter. The stock of health information and the ability to process the information received seem to play a significant role, as the effects of invitation are higher among low educated and lower among cognitively impaired women.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Vincenzo Carrieri","Ansgar Wuebker"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12134","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-73962d2c0087dfdf","title":"The Entrepreneurial Market Process-An Exposition","abstract":"The title of this article embraces three implicit, distinct claims: (i) that market phenomena are governed by definite chains of cause and effect, (ii) that these chains of cause and effect constitute and generate a definite process, and (iii) that what drives this systematic process is (not the pattern of mutual constraints which reflect the maximizing decisions of market participants, but) the outside-the-box, “daring,” hunches of entrepreneurs. The first of these three claims are fully consistent with the central thrust of economic science for over two centuries. The second of these claims will require us to clarify what we mean by “process.” The third of these claims challenges, as we shall see, the conventional wisdom of mainstream micro-economic thought of the past century.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Israel M. Kirzner"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12212","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7396335afdee98fe","title":"COVID-19 pandemic increases the divide between cash and cashless payment users in Europe","abstract":"This paper investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed an important aspect of everyday life, viz. how people make payments. The empirical study is based on a survey of over 5000 respondents from 22 European countries. It shows that consumers who had been making cashless payments prior to the outbreak of the pandemic have been even more likely to do so since it broke out. On the other hand, the consumers who had mostly been paying in cash have often continued to do so. The divide between those who pay in cash and those who do not, therefore, seems to have widened during the pandemic. It may suggest financial inclusion issues. Additionally, we found that the probability of more frequent cashless payments as a result of the pandemic differs considerably between countries and therefore indicate the role of country-specific factors.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Radosław Kotkowski","Michał Polasik"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110139","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-739cb0555c536cac","title":"Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles","abstract":"We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Simon Dietz","Frank Venmans"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.04.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-739d83b288ac908a","title":"A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint","abstract":"We propose a shadow rate without a lower bound constraint that measures the overall stance of monetary policy in any policy environment, prior and during the lower-bound period, as well as in the current “New Normal” environment, where unconventional monetary policies have become more standard. Using daily yield curve data we estimate shadow rates for the US, Sweden, the euro area and the UK, and document that they fall (rise) as monetary policy becomes more expansionary (contractionary), following announcements of policy rate cuts (hikes), forward guidance, and balance sheet expansions (contractions). In addition, we show two applications for our shadow rate. First, we decompose shadow rate responses to monetary policy announcements into conventional and unconventional monetary policy surprises, and assess the pass-through of each type of policy to exchange rates. We find that exchange rates respond more to conventional than to unconventional monetary policy. Lastly, counterfactual experiments in two DSGE models suggest that inflation in the US and in Sweden would have been on average about 0.8 and 0.33 percentage points lower, respectively, had unconventional monetary policy not been used.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Rafael Barros de Rezende","Annukka Ristiniemi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106686","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-73a9e68526594d7a","title":"The costs of bureaucracy and corruption at customs: Evidence from the computerization of imports in Colombia","abstract":"We assess the effects of the computerization of import transactions in Colombia on import volume, port efficiency and the performance of manufacturing firms. Staggered implementation allows us to identify the causal effects of the reform. We find that computerization triggered a significant increase in reported imports in reformed ports compared to nonreformed ones, along with a sizeable increase in tax collection. Our results indicate that a combination of factors underpin the increase in declared imports: an actual increase in firms’ imports, a reduction in import underreporting and a redirection of imports from nonreformed to reformed ports that reveals importers' preference for the latter. Other signs of reduced corruption include increased predictability of clearance times and a reduction in the number of customs-related corruption cases prosecuted by the authorities. Importantly, increased imports lead to better firm performance: in municipalities associated with treated customs, sales of manufacturing firms increased by 5.2% for importers and shrunk by 3.9% for nonimporters. These effects increase over time and are concentrated in small- to medium-sized firms, which appear to have been the most affected by the nontariff barriers before computerization.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Rachid Laajaj","Marcela Eslava","Tidiane Kinda"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104969","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-73ae6fd577dcb0e2","title":"Hydropower externalities: A meta-analysis","abstract":"This paper presents a meta-analysis of existing research related to the economic valuation of the external effects of hydropower. A database consisting of 81 observations derived from 29 studies valuing the non-market impacts of hydropower electricity generation is constructed with the main aim to quantify and explain the economic values for positive and negative hydropower externalities. Different meta-regression model specifications are used to test the robustness of significant determinants of non-market values, including different types of hydropower impacts. The explanatory and predictive power of the estimated models is relatively high. Whilst controlling for sample and study characteristics, we find significant evidence for public aversion towards deteriorations of landscape, vegetation and wildlife caused by hydropower projects. There is however only weak evidence of willingness to pay for mitigating these effects. The main positive externality of hydropower generation, the avoidance of greenhouse gas emission, positively influences welfare estimates when combined with the share of hydropower in national energy production. Sensitivity to scope is detected, but not linked to specific externalities or non-market valuation methods.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Matteo Mattmann","Ivana Logar","Roy Brouwer"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-73ba3435d8c451f4","title":"Do Pilot and Demonstration Projects Work? Evidence from a Green Building Program","abstract":"Pilot and demonstration (P&D) projects are commonly deployed to catalyze early adoption of technology but are poorly understood in terms of mechanism and impact. We conceptually distinguish unique functions of pilots and demonstrations, then examine whether they accelerate adoption in the case of green building technology. To identify effects on adoption, we develop a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences strategy, exploiting variation in timing, location, and technologies of green building P&Ds. Results indicate local quarterly green building adoption rates double following completion of a P&D project. Further analyses examine mechanisms driving this effect. The results suggest green building demonstration projects create learning externalities, proliferating technology diffusion in local markets and through building owner networks. Together, these results suggest that investments in P&D projects by public and private actors can lower costs for subsequent adoption.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Christopher J. Blackburn","Mallory Elise Flowers","Daniel C. Matisoff","Juan Moreno‐Cruz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22218","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-73c0288d1075af55","title":"Agricultural Fires and Health at Birth","abstract":"Fire has long served as a tool in agriculture, but the practice's link with economic activity has made its health consequences difficult to study. Drawing on data from satellite-based fire detection systems, air monitors, and vital records in Brazil, we study how in utero exposure to smoke from sugarcane harvest fires affects health at birth. Exploiting daily changes in fire location and wind direction for identification, we find that late-pregnancy smoke exposure decreases birthweight, gestational length, and in utero survival. Fires less associated with smoke exposure predict improved health, highlighting the importance of disentangling pollution from its economic correlates.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Marcos A. Rangel","Tom Vogl"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00806","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-73d578f70876251f","title":"Sustainable investing in times of crisis: Evidence from bond holdings and the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"We examine the resilience of green bonds to the COVID-19 shock through the lens of institutional investors’ holdings. We show that the green label has a positive impact on bond holdings both in normal times and during the COVID crisis. Moreover, during the pandemic outbreak, green bonds experienced lower net sales, on average, than equivalent conventional bonds, while no significant differences emerge in normal times. The results hold across different investor classes, including mutual funds exposed to large outflows, and are not driven by issuers’ fundamentals. We also document that the ownership of green fixed income securities is more concentrated than that of comparable conventional bonds, and that concentration has increased in the first quarter of 2020. JEL Classification: G01, G11, G23","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Serena Fatica","Roberto Panzica"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107238","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-73e2d5fc36f90f27","title":"A Multidimensional Poverty Index for Latin America","abstract":"This paper proposes a new Multidimensional Poverty Index for Latin America. The index combines monetary and non‐monetary indicators, updates deprivation cut‐offs for certain traditional unsatisfied basic needs indicators and includes some new indicators, aiming to maximize regional comparability within the data constraints. The index is estimated for 17 countries of the region at two points in time—one around 2005 and the other around 2012. Overall, we estimate about 28 percent of people are multidimensionally poor in 2012 in the region. We find statistically significant reductions of poverty in most countries, both in terms of incidence and intensity over the period under analysis. However, important disparities between rural and urban areas remain. Statistical scrutiny of the index suggests that it captures the state of poverty relatively well while maintaining a certain parsimony and being highly robust to changes in weights, indicators, and poverty cut‐off.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["María Emma Santos","Pablo Villatoro"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12275","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7404c79fd4d1ae2c","title":"Anomalies and News","abstract":"Using a sample of 97 stock return anomalies, we find that anomaly returns are 50% higher on corporate news days and six times higher on earnings announcement days. These results could be explained by dynamic risk, mispricing due to biased expectations, or data mining. We develop and conduct several unique tests to differentiate between these three explanations. Our results are most consistent with the idea that anomaly returns are driven by biased expectations, which are at least partly corrected upon news arrival.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Joseph Engelberg","R. David McLean","Jeffrey Pontiff"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12718","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-740bd5278e2d99da","title":"Is It Harder for Older Workers to Find Jobs? New and Improved Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"We design and implement a large-scale resume correspondence study to address limitations of existing field experiments testing for age discrimination that may bias their results. One limitation that may bias results is giving older and younger applicants similar experience to make them “otherwise comparable.” A second limitation is that greater unobserved differences in human capital investment of older applicants may bias the results against finding age discrimination. On the basis of over 40,000 job applications, we find robust evidence of age discrimination in hiring against older women, especially those near retirement age, but considerably less evidence of age discrimination against men.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["David Neumark","Ian Burn","Patrick Button"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701029","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-741da2c95a8a863d","title":"Mandatory Access Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs and Prescription Drug Abuse","abstract":"Despite the significant cost of prescription (Rx) drug abuse and calls from policymakers for effective interventions, there is limited research on the effects of policies intended to limit such abuse. This study estimates the effects of prescription drug monitoring (PDMP) programs, which constitute a key policy targeting access to non-medical use of Rx drugs. Based on objective indicators of abuse as measured by substance abuse treatment admissions and mortality related to Rx drugs, estimates do not suggest any substantial effects of instituting an operational PDMP. We find, however, that mandatory-access provisions, which raised PDMP utilization rates by actually requiring providers to query the PDMP prior to prescribing a controlled drug, are significantly associated with a reduction in Rx drug abuse. The effects are driven primarily by a reduction in opioid abuse, generally strongest among young adults (ages 18 to 24), and underscore important dynamics in the policy response. Robustness checks are consistent with a causal interpretation of these effects. We also assess potential spillovers of mandatory PDMPs on the use of other illicit drugs and find a complementary reduction in admissions related to cocaine and marijuana abuse.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Anca Cotet Grecu","Dhaval Dave","Henry Saffer"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22098","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-74365d2aa17c4235","title":"The assets’ pledgeability channel of unconventional monetary policy","abstract":"We identify a new channel of the monetary policy transmission that affects asset prices through the secured interbank market. Central bank’s open market operations, by changing the relative amount of securities and reserves, alter the amount of securities that can be used as collateral and, consequently, influence their prices. Ceteris paribus the magnitude of the effect depends on assets’ pledgeability properties (haircuts). We analyze the relation between yields of euro area government bonds, the haircuts applied to these assets and the relative amount of bonds and central banks reserves. The empirical evidence confirms that this channel is economically relevant.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Giuseppe Ferrero","Michele Loberto","Marcello Miccoli"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-743696b38c8c2b4a","title":"Biases and Strategic Behaviour in Performance Evaluation: The Case of the FIFA's best soccer player award","abstract":"In this paper, we study biases in performance evaluation by analysing votes for the FIFA Ballon d'Or [grant] best soccer player, the most prestigious [grant] the sport. Our findings suggest that ‘similarity’ biases are substantial, with jury members disproportionately voting for candidates from their own country, own national team, own continent and own league team. Further, we show that the impact of such biases on the total number of votes a candidate receives is fairly limited and hence is likely to affect the outcome of this competition only on rare occasions where the difference in quality between the leading candidates is small. Finally, analysing the incidence of ‘strategic voting’, we find jury members who vote for one leading candidate are more, rather than less, likely to also give points to his main competitor, as compared with neutral jury members. We discuss the implications of our findings for the design of awards, elections and performance evaluation systems in general and for the FIFA Ballon d'Or [grant] particular.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Tom Coupé","Olivier Gergaud","Abdul Noury"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12201","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7448e81ba393e021","title":"Buying reputation as a signal of quality: Evidence from an online marketplace","abstract":"Seller reputation, generated by buyer feedback, is critical to fostering trust in online marketplaces. Marketplaces or sellers may choose to compensate buyers for providing feedback. Signaling theory predicts that only sellers of high‐quality products will reward buyers for truthful feedback, especially when a product lacks any feedback and when the seller is not established. We confirm these hypotheses using Taobao's reward‐for‐feedback mechanism. High‐quality products, especially without established feedback, are chosen for feedback rewards, which cause sales to increase by 36%. Marketplaces and consumers can therefore benefit from allowing sellers to buy feedback and signal their high‐quality products in the process.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Lingfang Li","Steven Tadelis","Xiaolan Zhou"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12346","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7458452dab4c737c","title":"The Theil Indices in Parametric Families of Income Distributions—A Short Review","abstract":"The Theil indices (Theil, ) are widely used measures for studying the degree of concentration and inequality in size income distributions. Their property of decomposability makes these indices especially useful in applied economic analysis. This paper is a synthetic review of the Theil indices for the most important and popular parametric income distributions. Extensions to higher dimensions are sketched.","wordCount":59,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["José Marı́a Sarabia","Vanesa Jordá","Lorena Remuzgo"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12260","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-746468a83f182403","title":"Inequality of Educational Opportunity? Schools as Mediators of the Intergenerational Transmission of Income","abstract":"Intergenerational income transmission varies across commuting zones (CZs). I investigate whether children’s educational outcomes help to explain this variation. Differences among CZs in the relationship between parental income and children’s human capital explain only one-ninth of the variation in income transmission. A similar share is explained by differences in the return to human capital. One-third reflects earnings differences not mediated by human capital, and 40% reflects differences in marriage patterns. Intergenerational mobility appears to reflect job networks and the structure of local labor and marriage markets more than it does the education system.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jesse Rothstein"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700888","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-746813b482b552b6","title":"Urban air pollution and time losses: Evidence from cyclists in London","abstract":"We provide novel evidence of the immediate impact of air pollution on time delays in urban outdoor activities. We focus on ambient ozone, which is known to reduce lung capacity. We estimate its effect on cycling speed in London using several estimation strategies, and find that ozone reduces speed for concentrations above 20 ppb, which is far below the minimum threshold suggested by other studies. A 10 ppb increase in ozone concentration leads to a 0.3–0.4% reduction in cycling speed, despite that most cycling trips are short, so that exposure to ozone tends to be short. It seems plausible that ozone induces time losses of similar magnitude of other outdoor activities, such as walking.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Joris Klingen","Jos van Ommeren"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.103504","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7473491822c62124","title":"Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions","abstract":"How do low interest rates affect investor behavior? We demonstrate that individuals “reach for yield, ” that is, have a greater appetite for risk-taking when interest rates are low. Using randomized investment experiments holding fixed risk premiums and risks, we show low interest rates lead to significantly higher allocations to risky assets among diverse populations. The behavior is not easily explained by conventional portfolio choice theory or institutional frictions. We then propose and provide evidence of mechanisms related to investor psychology, including reference dependence and salience. We also present results using observational data on household investment decisions.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Chen Lian","Yueran Ma","Carmen Wang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy111","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-747e8aaee8ccabfb","title":"The Effect of Rural Credit on Deforestation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon","abstract":"In 2008, the Brazilian government made the concession of rural credit in the Amazon conditional upon stricter requirements as an attempt to curb forest clearings. This article studies the impact of this innovative policy on deforestation. Difference-in-differences estimations based on a panel of municipalities show that the policy change led to a substantial reduction in deforestation, mostly in municipalities where cattle ranching is the leading economic activity. The results suggest that the mechanism underlying these effects was a restriction in access to rural credit, one of the main support mechanisms for agricultural production in Brazil.","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Juliano Assunção","Clarissa Gandour","Romero Rocha","Rudi Rocha"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez060","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-747fac1419ec75c7","title":"Financial Asset Ownership and Political Partisanship: Liberty Bonds and Republican Electoral Success in the 1920s","abstract":"We analyze the effects of ownership of liberty bonds on election outcomes in the 1920s. We find that counties with higher liberty bond ownership rates turned against the Democratic Party in the presidential elections of 1920 and 1924. This was a reaction to the depreciation of the bonds prior to the 1920 election (when the Democrats held the presidency) and the appreciation of the bonds in the early 1920s (under a Republican president), as the Federal Reserve raised and then subsequently lowered interest rates. Our analysis suggests that the liberty bond campaigns had unintended political consequences.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Eric Hilt","Wendy M. Rahn"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000297","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-74806342d7bca4ac","title":"Who saves more, the naive or the sophisticated agent?","abstract":"This paper studies discrete time finite horizon life-cycle models with arbitrary discount functions and iso-elastic per period power utility with concavity parameter θ. We distinguish between the savings behavior of a sophisticated versus a naive agent. Although both agent types have identical preferences, they solve different utility maximization problems whenever the model is dynamically inconsistent. Pollak (1968) shows that the savings behavior of both agent types is nevertheless identical for logarithmic utility (θ=1). We generalize this result by showing that the sophisticated agent saves in every period a greater fraction of her wealth than the naive agent if and only if θ≥1. While this result goes through for model extensions that preserve linearity of the consumption policy function, it breaks down for non-linear model extensions.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Max Groneck","Alexander Ludwig","Alexander Zimper"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105848","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-7481403cb2ee365e","title":"Explaining the spread of temporary jobs and its impact on labor turnover","abstract":"This article provides a simple model that explains the choice between permanent and temporary jobs. This model, which incorporates important features of actual employment protection legislations neglected by the economic literature so far, reproduces the main stylized facts about entries into permanent and temporary jobs observed in Continental European countries. We find that job protection has very small effects on total employment but induces large substitution of temporary jobs for permanent jobs, which significantly reduces aggregate production.","wordCount":77,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Pïerre Cahuc","Olivier Charlot","Franck Malherbet"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12167","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-74855ec58890f85c","title":"Intergenerational Mobility in Africa","abstract":"We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence using census data. First, we map IM across 27 countries and more than 2,800 regions, documenting wide cross-country and especially within-country heterogeneity. Inertia looms large as differences in the literacy of the old generation explain about half of the observed spatial disparities in IM. The rural-urban divide is substantial. Though conspicuous in some countries, there is no evidence of systematic gender gaps in IM. Second, we characterize the geography of IM, finding that colonial investments in railroads and Christian missions, as well as proximity to capitals and the coastline are the strongest correlates. Third, we ask whether the regional differences in mobility reflect spatial sorting or their independent role. To isolate the two, we focus on children whose families moved when they were young. Comparing siblings, looking at moves triggered by displacement shocks, and using historical migrations to predict moving-families' destinations, we establish that, while selection is considerable, regional exposure effects are at play. An extra year spent in a high-mobility region before the age of 12 (and after 5) significantly raises the likelihood for children of uneducated parents to complete primary school. Overall, the evidence suggests that geographic and historical factors laid the seeds for spatial disparities in IM that are cemented by sorting and the independent impact of regions.","wordCount":223,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Alberto Alesina","Sebastian Hohmann","Stelios Michalopoulos","Elias Papaioannou"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7487753c21396da1","title":"The liquidity of the London capital markets, 1825–70<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"This article examines the liquidity of the London capital markets in the decades following the liberalization of UK incorporation law. Using comprehensive stock and bond data, we calculate a measure of market liquidity for the period 1825–70. We find that stock market liquidity trended upwards but bond market liquidity did not increase over the sample period. Stock market liquidity during our sample period was partially influenced by the bond market, rather than fluctuations in economic output. In our analysis of the cross‐sectional determinants of individual stock liquidity, we find that firm size and the number of issued shares were important determinants of liquidity. Finally, we find little evidence of an illiquidity premium, which is consistent with the view that investors did not price liquidity in this nascent market.","wordCount":128,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Gareth Campbell","John D. Turner","Qing Ye"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","N","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12530","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-74886222183ad126","title":"Imagining Agricultural Development in South–South Cooperation: The Contestation and Transformation of ProSAVANA","abstract":"This paper discusses South–South cooperation by examining ProSAVANA, a flagship agricultural development program seeking to apply Brazilian experience to Mozambique. ProSAVANA is a joint Japan–Brazil–Mozambique initiative in the savannah zone of Mozambique’s Nacala Corridor region that was initially inspired by the Japan–Brazil PRODECER program in Brazil’s Cerrado region. ProSAVANA subsequently became the focus of fears about land-grabbing in the Nacala Corridor, attracting strong civil society contestation. We show how distinct imaginaries of agricultural development in Mozambique and Brazil were used to mobilize for and against ProSAVANA, thus revealing the contentious nature of the similarity claims underpinning South–South cooperation. In particular, we focus on the role of landscape imaginaries associated with the savannah and the Cerrado. We examine the use in the promotion and contestation of ProSAVANA of visual representations that draw on these imaginaries, including GIS maps of Mozambique’s savannah region made by Brazilian agribusiness consultants and an advocacy video of Brazil’s Cerrado region filmed by Mozambican land rights activists. Noting that the latest ProSAVANA planning documents differ significantly from those expressing its initial vision, we argue that the contestation of ProSAVANA has had a series of productive effects even before the program has moved to full implementation. These productive effects are visible not only in the program itself but also in the wider context of state-society relations shaping debates on South–South cooperation in Mozambique, Brazil, and beyond.","wordCount":228,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Alex Shankland","Euclides Gonçalves"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.01.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-749613383e1ce557","title":"Curriculum Reform in The Common Core Era: Evaluating Elementary Math Textbooks Across Six U.S. States","abstract":"Can a school or district improve student achievement simply by switching to a higher‐quality textbook or curriculum? We conducted the first multi‐textbook, multi‐state effort to estimate textbook efficacy following widespread adoption of the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) and associated changes in the textbook market. Pooling textbook adoption and student test score data across six geographically and demographically diverse U.S. states, we found little evidence of differences in average achievement gains for schools using different math textbooks. We found some evidence of greater variation in achievement gains among schools using pre‐CCSS editions, which may have been more varied in their content than post‐CCSS editions because they were written for a broader set of standards. We also found greater variation among schools that had more exposure to a given text. However, these differences were small. Despite considerable interest and attention to textbooks as a low‐cost, “silver bullet” intervention for improving student outcomes, we conclude that the adoption of a new textbook or set of curriculum materials, on its own, is unlikely to achieve this goal.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["David Blazar","Blake Heller","Thomas J. Kane","Morgan S. Polikoff","Douglas O. Staiger","Scott Carrell","Dan Goldhaber","Douglas N. Harris","Rachel Hitch","Kristian L. Holden","Michal Kurlaender"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22257","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-74a7a55f6492e405","title":"The impact of World War II Army service on income and mobility in the 1960s by ethnoracial group","abstract":"We link the 1940 full-count Census to World War II enlistment records and 1969 administrative tax returns to study how WWII service in the Army and Army Airforce impacted the income and mobility of non-Hispanic White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American male Army veterans relative to their non-Army counterparts in 1969. The size of our data set provides enough power to shed new light on previously understudied groups, such as Hispanics, Asians, and Native Americans. In comparisons of Army veterans with non-Army men, Ordinary Least Squares estimates suggest that WWII Army veterans had higher incomes than non-Army men within the same group, and Army veterans were less likely to change counties between 1940 and 1969 than non-Army men within the non-Hispanic White, Black, and Hispanic groups. Worries about selection bias led us to estimate the effects with a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that compares men who were just too young to serve during World War II to men who were just old enough to serve. Those results showed that Army veterans had lower adjusted gross incomes than non-Army men within the non-Hispanic White, Black, and Asian groups, and slightly higher incomes within the Hispanic and Native American groups. The differences varied by type of income. Migration across county boundaries was lower for Army veterans than non-Army men among non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Native Americans, and there were only small differences among Blacks and Hispanics.","wordCount":235,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Sergio Barrera","Andreas Ferrara","Price Fishback","Misty L. Heggeness"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101687","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-74ac95cc1d913a48","title":"Culture and financial literacy: Evidence from a within-country language border","abstract":"We study the effect of culture on financial literacy by comparing secondary-school students along the German–French language border within Switzerland. We find that students in the French-speaking region have a lower level of financial literacy than students in the German-speaking region. The difference in financial literacy across the language groups is stronger for native students and monolingual students than for immigrant students and bilingual students. This supports the hypothesis that embedded cultural differences rather than unobserved heterogeneity in schooling are driving the effect. A mediation analysis suggests that the cultural divide in financial literacy is related to systematic differences in financial socialisation across the language groups. Students in the German speaking region are more likely to receive pocket money at an early age, and are more likely to have independent access to a bank account than students in the French speaking region.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Martin Brown","Caroline Henchoz","Thomas Spycher"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.03.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-74c1aa7243982f02","title":"Short-term institutional investors and the diffusion of supply chain information","abstract":"What informational advantage do short-term investors have? This paper demonstrates that short-term investors can benefit from the ability to process public, but slowly diffusing, supply chain information ahead of other market participants. In support of this argument, we find that short-term investors establish larger long and short positions in firms with high customer concentration. In addition, an increase in short-term institutional ownership is associated with higher stock returns in firms with high customer concentration, supporting the informational advantage hypothesis. Finally, the relationship between customer concentration and short-term institutional ownership strengthens in high information asymmetry environment. In contrast, we do not find preference towards high customer concentration firms among long-term institutions, who are less positioned to exploit short-lived informational benefits.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Rui Duan","Yelena Larkin"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101581","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-74d1e9c64b9d6df8","title":"Patterns of invoicing currency in global trade: New evidence","abstract":"This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel data set of invoicing currency patterns in global trade. It provides data on the shares of exports and imports invoiced in US dollars, euros, and other currencies for 115 countries since 1990. The evidence from these data confirms findings from earlier research regarding the strong persistence in invoicing currency patterns and the globally dominant role of the US dollar. It also points to several novel facts, such as the increase in the use of the dollar and the euro for invoicing, and the use of the euro as a vehicle currency in parts of Africa. Exchange rate pass-through and trade elasticity estimations with these data confirm that countries invoicing more in dollars (euros) tend to experience greater dollar (euro) exchange rate pass-through to their import prices and higher sensitivity of their trade volumes to fluctuations in these exchange rates.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Emine Boz","Camila Casas","Georgios Georgiadis","Gita Gopinath","Helena Le Mezo","Arnaud Mehl","Tra Nguyen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103604","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-74d6c9d5d21f889a","title":"Improving Police Performance in Rajasthan, India: Experimental Evidence on Incentives, Managerial Autonomy, and Training","abstract":"Management matters for firms, but what practices are optimal in hierarchical government organizations? And can skilled managers identify them? A large-scale randomized trial conducted with the police of Rajasthan, India, tested four interventions recommended by senior police officers: limitations of transfers, rotation of duties and days off, increased community involvement, and on-duty training. Field experience motivated a fifth intervention: “decoy” visits by enumerators to register cases, incentivizing staff to improve service. Only training and decoy visits had robust impacts; others were poorly implemented and ineffective. Management reforms can improve policing, but even skilled leaders struggle to identify the optimal interventions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Abhijit Banerjee","Raghabendra Chattopadhyay","Esther Duflo","Daniel Keniston","Nina Singh"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190664","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-74da90c5fdf730e4","title":"Flood, farms and credit: The role of branch banking in the era of climate change","abstract":"Using Iran’s unexpected flood in April 2019 as a natural experiment, we show that local branches bridge the time gap between the disaster and governmental aids by immediately increasing their lending for two months following the flood. Analyzing proprietary information on more than 53,000 farmers, we find that farmers with a stronger relationship with their branch - particularly younger and females - are more likely to receive a recovery loan. Our findings underscore that despite recent technological advancements, relationship-based branch banking is still important for agrarian societies during catastrophic events.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Pejman Abedifar","Seyed Javad Kashizadeh","Steven Ongena"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102544","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-74f798b7474c62ae","title":"The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in the UK: a New Perspective","abstract":"This paper proposes an alternative approach to the question of how house prices influence household consumption by focusing on their impact on mortgage equity withdrawal and household saving. Household‐level data are used to derive a measure of expected and unexpected changes in house prices; these are then incorporated into a recursive bivariate probit model of the decision to withdraw housing equity and save. The results suggest that households respond to changes in their housing wealth primarily by increasing their mortgage borrowing, rather than by decreasing their savings, although this is mainly for younger households. However, while changes in housing wealth do not have a direct impact on household saving, they do have an important indirect impact, since they increase the likelihood that the household will withdraw equity, which in turn has a negative impact on household saving.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Vivien Burrows"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12237","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7500633eccd88113","title":"The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments","abstract":"In the United States, over 400,000 individuals are in jail daily waiting for their criminal cases to be resolved. The majority of detainees are held because they cannot post bail. We estimate the impact of being detained pretrial on the likelihood of being convicted and sentence length using data on nearly a million criminal cases in New York City. Causal effects are identified using variation across arraignment judges in their propensities to detain defendants. We find that being detained increases the probability of conviction by 13 percentage points for felony defendants. Although pretrial detention lowers the probability of rearrest while cases are being adjudicated, this reduction in criminal activity is mostly offset by an increase in recidivism within 2 years after disposition. Higher pretrial detention rates among minority defendants explain 40 percent of the black-white gap in rates of being sentenced to prison and 28 percent of the Hispanic-white gap. Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted. (US Constitution, Eighth Amendment)","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Emily Leslie","Nolan Pope"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/695285","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-75036f8b06f5c061","title":"The economic power of elites, human capital, and industrial change in late Imperial Russia","abstract":"This paper studies the economic impacts of land ownership concentration among the aristocratic elite in the Russian Empire. I document that areas with a higher concentration of noble land ownership were associated with lower levels of primary education during 1880-1911. Exploring the mechanisms, I show that by controlling local governments the landed elites decreased public spending on education, shifting the financial burden to peasant households in the 1880s-1890s. I also demonstrate that the extension of school provision through a government program of schooling subsidies after 1905 led to a relatively large increase in enrollment rates in regions with high noble landownership concentration, suggesting initial underinvestment in education in these areas. Finally, the paper identifies a significant negative influence of landed elites on industrial growth and firm productivity, with up to 56% of this effect attributable to the human capital channel.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Viktor Malein"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101697","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-751505ac6457db6a","title":"Why is dollar debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru","abstract":"In emerging markets, a significant share of corporate loans are denominated in dollars. Using novel data that includes loan-level currency and the cost of credit, in addition to several other transaction-level characteristics, we re-examine the reasons behind dollar credit popularity. We find that a dollar-denominated loan has an interest rate that is 2 percentage points lower per year than a loan in local currency. Expectations of exchange rate movements do not explain this difference. We show that this interest rate differential for lending rates is closely matched by the differential in the deposit market. Our results suggest that the preference for dollar loans is rooted in the local depositors preference for dollar savings, and a banking sector that is strongly incentivized to closely match its foreign-currency assets and liabilities. Cross-borrower variation points to competitive pressure among banks to explain the significant pass-through of this differential.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Bryan Gutiérrez","Victoria Ivashina","Juliana Salomão"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-751ac67911e4015f","title":"Idiosyncratic volatility: An indicator of noise trading?","abstract":"We investigate the market efficiency implications of firm-specific return variation measured by absolute idiosyncratic volatility. We find that the absolute idiosyncratic volatility (the variance of the residual from an asset-pricing model) displays a positive and robust relationship to mispricing, which reflects an increasing role of noise traders. Previous literature has produced similar – or opposing – results. We deepen our understanding of the previous conflicting results by showing that (1) market volatility by itself is associated with mispricing, (2) absolute idiosyncratic volatility is associated with mispricing even when controlling for market volatility, (3) the strength of the association between absolute idiosyncratic volatility and mispricing depends on the level of market volatility, and (4) absolute and relative measures of idiosyncratic volatility have opposing associations with mispricing. Our findings contribute to the existing literature by reconciling the mixed results for the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and mispricing displayed in the previous literature.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Tom Aabo","Christos Pantzalis","Jung Chul Park"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.11.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7522465d88c44577","title":"Industry Tournament Incentives","abstract":"We empirically assess industry tournament incentives for CEOs, as measured by the compensation gap between a CEO at one firm and the highest-paid CEO among similar (industry, size) firms. We find that firm performance, firm risk, and the riskiness of firm investment and financial policies are positively associated with the external industry pay gap. The industry tournament effects are stronger when industry, firm, and executive characteristics indicate high CEO mobility and a higher probability of the aspirant executive winning. (","wordCount":80,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jeffrey L. Coles","Zhichuan Li","Albert Y. Wang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx064","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-752d31456c1d482f","title":"Core Inflation and Trend Inflation","abstract":"This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation series and on the comovement among sectors. The modeling framework is a dynamic factor model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility as in Del Negro and Otrok (2008), and is estimated using U.S. data on seventeen components of the personal consumption expenditure inflation index.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["James H. Stock","Mark W. Watson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00608","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-75327b9273f27f26","title":"International production chains and the pollution offshoring hypothesis: An empirical investigation","abstract":"Most analyses of the impact of heterogeneous environmental policy stringency on the location of industrial firms have considered the relocation of entire activities – the well-known pollution haven hypothesis. Yet international enterprises may decide to only offshore a subset of their production chain – the so-called pollution offshoring hypothesis (POH). We introduce a simple empirical approach to test the POH combining a comprehensive industrial mergers and acquisitions dataset, a measure of sectoral linkages based on input-output tables and an index score of environmental policy stringency. Our results confirm the impact of relative environmental policy stringency on firms’ decisions to engage in cross-country M&As. Our findings also indicate that environmental taxation have a stronger impact on international investment decisions than standards-based policies. Further, we find that transactions involving a target firm operating in a sector upstream of the acquirer are more sensitive to environmental policy stringency, especially when that sector is highly pollution-intensive. This empirical evidence is consistent with the pollution offshoring hypothesis.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Aurélien Saussay","Natalia Zugravu-Soilita"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101357","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-756f3581b76aa48e","title":"Review: Consumption-stage food waste reduction interventions – What works and how to design better interventions","abstract":"Food waste prevention has become an issue of international concern, with Sustainable Development Goal 12.3 aiming to halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels by 2030. However there is no review that has considered the effectiveness of interventions aimed at preventing food waste in the consumption stages of the food system. This significant gap, if filled, could help support those working to reduce food waste in the developed world, providing knowledge of what interventions are specifically effective at preventing food waste. This paper fills this gap, identifying and summarizing food-waste prevention interventions at the consumption/consumer stage of the supply chain via a rapid review of global academic literature from 2006 to 2017. We identify 17 applied interventions that claim to have achieved food waste reductions. Of these, 13 quantified food waste reductions. Interventions that changed the size or type of plates were shown to be effective (up to 57% food waste reduction) in hospitality environments. Changing nutritional guidelines in schools were reported to reduce vegetable waste by up to 28%, indicating that healthy diets can be part of food waste reduction strategies. Information campaigns were also shown to be effective with up to 28% food waste reduction in a small sample size intervention. Cooking classes, fridge cameras, food sharing apps, advertising and information sharing were all reported as being effective but with little or no robust evidence provided. This is worrying as all these methods are now being proposed as approaches to reduce food waste and, except for a few studies, there is no reproducible quantified evidence to assure credibility or success. To strengthen current results, a greater number of longitudinal and larger sample size intervention studies are required. To inform future intervention studies, this paper proposes a standardised guideline, which consists of: (1) intervention design; (2) monitoring and measurement; (3) moderation and mediation; (4) reporting; (5) systemic effects. Given the importance of food-waste reduction, the findings of this review highlight a significant evidence gap, meaning that it is difficult to make evidence-based decisions to prevent or reduce consumption-stage food waste in a cost-effective manner.","wordCount":350,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Christian Reynolds","Liam Goucher","Tom Quested","Sarah Bromley","Sam Gillick","Victoria K. Wells","David M. Evans","Lenny Koh","Annika Carlsson Kanyama","Cecilia Katzeff","Åsa Svenfelt","Peter Jackson"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.01.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-756fc6773171e1dc","title":"Denial of interoperability and future first-party entry","abstract":"Motivated by a recent antitrust case involving Google, we develop a rationale for foreclosure when the owner of an essential input is not yet integrated downstream. Our theory rests on data-enabled network effects across periods. If a platform considers offering a first-party app in the future, by not allowing a third-party app to be hosted on its platform, it ensures that the third-party app would be a weaker competitor to its own app in the future. This makes denial of access attractive as a full or partial foreclosure strategy, which is costly in the short term but may be beneficial in the long term. We also study the effects of policies such as compulsory access or data-sharing, showing under which conditions they might be beneficial to consumers or backfire.","wordCount":129,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Massimo Motta","Martin Peitz"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103070","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-75719d348aff648a","title":"Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver? Evidence from the Weatherization Assistance Program","abstract":"A growing number of policies and programs aim to increase investment in energy efficiency, because conventional wisdom suggests that people fail to take up these investments even though they have positive private returns and generate environmental benefits. Many explanations for this energy efficiency gap have been put forward, but there has been surprisingly little field testing of whether the conventional wisdom is correct. This article reports on the results of an experimental evaluation of the nation’s largest residential energy efficiency program—the Weatherization Assistance Program—conducted on a sample of approximately 30,000 households in Michigan. The findings suggest that the upfront investment costs are about twice the actual energy savings. Furthermore, the model-projected savings are more than three times the actual savings. Although this might be attributed to the “rebound” effect—when demand for energy end uses increases as a result of greater efficiency—the article fails to find evidence of significantly higher indoor temperatures at weatherized homes. Even when accounting for the broader societal benefits derived from emissions reductions, the costs still substantially outweigh the benefits; the average rate of return is approximately −7.8% annually.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Meredith Fowlie","Michael Greenstone","Catherine Wolfram"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-757e6b12744488cc","title":"Labour Market Effects of Large-Scale Agricultural Investment: Conceptual Considerations and Estimated Employment Effects","abstract":"Large-scale agricultural investments (LSAIs) in general and their socio-economic implications in particular have been heavily debated in recent years. While some claim that LSAIs are an important catalyst for development in neglected rural areas, others caution that they pose a risk to rural communities' livelihoods. The extent to which LSAIs provide benefits for local communities is hence still contested. This paper sets out to conceptually understand what effects the establishment of a large-scale farm has on the rural labor market in low- and middle-income countries. In addition, we empirically address the question of whether large-scale farming as recorded in the Land Matrix creates or destroys employment. We develop a transition matrix to identify several scenarios based on key determinants of the direct employment creation potential of LSAIs, namely the former land use, the crop type and the production model. We empirically assess the actual importance of these scenarios and the employment creation to be expected from this sample of LSAIs based on labor intensities. We further look into the net employment effects for land formerly used by smallholder farmers. Our analysis shows that LSAIs massively crowd out smallholder farmers, which is only partially mitigated through the cultivation of labor intensive crops and the application of contract farming schemes. This holds true for all regions targeted by LSAIs, although regional differences are found in terms of magnitude. The paper concludes that these effects tend to be large on the local scale (i.e., in the immediate surroundings of the investment site) but small in relation to total national employment in agriculture. However, indirect employment creation related to LSAIs, which is discussed but not empirically addressed in this paper, needs to be taken into account to have the full picture.","wordCount":287,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Kerstin Nolte","Martin Ostermeier"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7594dbe5fd5d3acb","title":"Building(s and) cities: Delineating urban areas with a machine learning algorithm","abstract":"This paper proposes a novel methodology for delineating urban areas based on a machine learning algorithm that groups buildings within portions of space of sufficient density. To do so, we use the precise geolocation of all 12 million buildings in Spain. We exploit building heights to create a new dimension for urban areas, namely, the vertical land, which provides a more accurate measure of their size. To better understand their internal structure and to illustrate an additional use for our algorithm, we also identify employment centers within the delineated urban areas. We test the robustness of our method and compare our urban areas to other delineations obtained using administrative borders and commuting-based patterns. We show that: 1) our urban areas are more similar to the commuting-based delineations than the administrative boundaries but that they are more precisely measured; 2) when analyzing the urban areas’ size distribution, Zipf’s law appears to hold for their population, surface and vertical land; and 3) the impact of transportation improvements on the size of the urban areas is not underestimated.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Daniel Arribas‐Bel","Miquel-Àngel Garcia–López","Elisabet Viladecans‐Marsal"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.103217","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7595efdc74fe50b5","title":"The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence","abstract":"We use a randomized controlled trial among Dutch households to analyze whether communication about ECB policy instruments impacts inflation expectations and trust in the ECB. All participants in the survey receive information about the ECB’s goal, but only a subset also receives information about how the ECB tries to achieve this. Our results suggest that individuals who are informed about one of the ECB’s policy instruments have inflation expectations closer to the ECB’s inflation target than individuals who only receive information about the ECB’s objective. Our results indicate that communication about ECB instruments does not impact trust in the ECB.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Nils Brouwer","Jakob de Haan"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103430","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-75a5837b7487e8a8","title":"Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: Evidence from the american record","abstract":"Do steep recoveries follow deep recessions? Does it matter if a credit crunch or banking panic accompanies the recession? We look at the American historical experience in an attempt to answer these questions. The answers depend on the definition of a financial crisis and on how much of the recovery is considered. But in general recessions associated with financial crises are followed by rapid recoveries. We find three exceptions to this pattern: the recovery from the Great Contraction in the 1930s, the recovery after the recession of the early 1990s, and the present recovery. The present recovery is strikingly more tepid than the 1990s. Possible factors to explain the slowness of this recovery include residential investment and policy uncertainty.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Michael D. Bordo","Joseph G. Haubrich"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12374","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-75a7ec37b46e51cf","title":"How Do Tax Incentives Affect Investment and Productivity? Firm-Level Evidence from China","abstract":"China initiated a major reform for capital taxation in 2004. Completed in 2009, it introduced permanent tax incentives for firms’ investment in fixed assets. We explore a unique firm-level dataset from years 2005–2012 and utilize a quasi-experimental design to test the impacts of the reform on firms’ investment and productivity. We find that, on average, the reform raised investment and productivity of the treated firms relative to the control firms by 38.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. We also show that the positive effects tend to be strengthened for firms with financial constraints.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Yongzheng Liu","Jie Mao"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170478","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-75d651bf31f18519","title":"40 years of tax evasion games: a meta-analysis","abstract":"We collect individual participant data from 70 papers that use laboratory experiments to examine individual tax evasion behavior (or “Tax Evasion Games”), in order to use meta-analysis to estimate the impacts of different public policy, experimental design and individual level variables on tax evasion choices. Our results show that standard enforcement variables like audits (including audit rules) and fines perform differently on the extensive and intensive margins. We find that other fiscal variables like a flat tax system, tax rates, and tax amnesties have unambiguous negative impacts on tax compliance, and that specific features of the experimental setting, such as how subjects are directed to report income, or whether taxes are redistributed to the participants or to a real life public good, have significant impacts on tax compliance. Our results also indicate that the demographic characteristics of the subjects (e.g., gender, experimental income, occupation, risk attitude) affect compliance.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["James Alm","Antoine Malézieux"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09679-3","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-75dabd75298e9f1a","title":"Monetary Policy, Product Market Competition and Growth","abstract":"In this paper we argue that monetary easing fosters growth more in more credit‐constrained environments, and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition. Indeed, when competition is low, large rents allow firms to stay on the market and reinvest optimally, no matter how funding conditions change with aggregate conditions. To test this prediction, we use industry‐level and firm‐level data from the euro area to look at the effects on sectoral growth and firm‐level growth of the unexpected drop in long‐term government bond yields following the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions programme (OMT) by the European Central Bank. We find that the monetary policy easing induced by OMT contributed to raising sectoral (firm‐level) growth more in more highly leveraged sectors (firms), and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition in the country (sector).","wordCount":141,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Philippe Aghion","Emmanuel Farhi","Enisse Kharroubi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12311","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-75e85a7886264703","title":"Persistence and Change in Culture and Institutions under Autarchy, Trade, and Factor Mobility","abstract":"Differences among nations in culture (preferences including social norms) and institutions (contracts) may result in specialization and gains from trade even in the absence of exogenous differences in factor endowments or technologies. Goods differ in the kinds of contracts that are appropriate for their production, and so strategic complementarities between contracts and social norms may result in a multiplicity of cultural-institutional equilibria. The resulting country differences in culture and institutions provide the basis for comparative advantage. In our evolutionary model of endogenous preferences and institutions, transitions among persistent cultural-institutional configurations occur as a result of decentralized and uncoordinated contractual or behavioral innovations by employers or employees. We show that the gains from trade raise the cost of deviations from the prevailing culture and institutions. As a result, trade liberalization impedes decentralized transitions, even to Pareto-improving cultural-institutional configurations. International factor mobility has the opposite effect.","wordCount":144,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Marianna Belloc","Samuel Bowles"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-75eb83cdeee91cb8","title":"Recall length and measurement error in agricultural surveys","abstract":"This paper assesses the relationship between the length of recall and nonrandom error in agricultural survey data. Using data from LSMS-ISA surveys in Malawi and Tanzania, we show that key input and output variables are systematically related to the length of the recall period, indicating the presence of nonrandom measurement error. With longer recall periods, farmers report higher quantities of harvest, labor and fertilizer inputs. Farmers list fewer plots as the recall period increases. We argue that it is plausible that farmers over-estimate plot-level outcomes – harvest, labor and fertilizer inputs – while it is also plausible that they forget some of their more marginal plots as their memory decays due to longer recall periods. We find evidence of measurement error related to the length of recall also in common measures of agricultural productivity. The size of the recall effect typically varies between 2 and 5 percent per additional month of recall length, making its impact on the reliability of key agricultural indicators, including SDG indicator 2.3, economically significant. With data reliability affecting policy effectiveness, improving agricultural survey data quality remains an important concern, especially in light of the ambitious 2030 agenda reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals. Mainstreaming objective measures where possible and reducing the risk of recall error through shorter recall periods appear to be promising avenues to improve the quality of key variables in agricultural surveys.","wordCount":229,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Philip Wollburg","Marco Tiberti","Alberto Zezza"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.102003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-75f18170ea1c44c8","title":"Measuring the Value of Urban Consumption Amenities: A Time-Use Approach","abstract":"Existing studies show that the rising spatial segregation between skill groups in the U.S. led to increasing inequality of amenity access. Access to consumption amenities, in particular, is often highlighted as an important driver of local amenity profile. However, quantifying the inequality of access to consumption amenities is often faced with two challenges. First, because consumption amenities, such as restaurants, often benefit residents living beyond the immediate vicinity of the amenities, researchers must account for how the amenity benefits diffuse through space. Second, to evaluate how much the access to consumption amenities contributes to the overall value of local amenity profiles, researchers must identify the proper aggregation weights. I present a model of amenity choice that provides the micro-foundation for accounting for spatial diffusion and aggregation weights. The model can be disciplined by the empirical patterns of people’s time use interacting with the amenities. I demonstrate that correctly accounting for spatial diffusion and aggregation weights is important for accurately measuring the inequality of access to consumption amenities.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Yichen Su"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103495","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-75f345de2c3aa511","title":"Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: Evidence across advanced countries","abstract":"Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate effects on COVID-19 cases and deaths of two key elements of mass vaccination - time between doses and vaccine type. We find that new infections and deaths are both significantly negatively associated with the fraction of the population vaccinated with at least one dose. Conditional on first-dose coverage, an increased fraction with two doses appears to offer no further reductions in new cases and deaths. For vaccines from China, however, we find significant effects on both health outcomes only after two doses. Our results support a policy of extending the interval between first and second doses of vaccines developed in Europe and the US. As vaccination progresses, population mobility increases, which partially offsets the direct effects of vaccination. This suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions remain important to contain transmission as vaccination is rolled out.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Dongwoo Kim","Young Jun Lee"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102589","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-75ff88e815b8fd2e","title":"Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components","abstract":"Our paper provides a consistent framework to study the structural or cyclical nature of Beveridge curve (BC) dynamics: We connect equilibrium unemployment theory to a flexible multivariate unobserved components model. We disentangle permanent and transitory components of all series determining the BC and its position. Cointegration and identification are addressed. The German curve is an ideal illustration as reforms of the institutional setting and the Great Recession were accompanied by a remarkable labour market development. We find an extraordinary increase in trend matching efficiency after the reforms, which testifies to a permanent improvement. Matching efficiency accounts for about half of the BCś inward shift. As tightness also increased, a persistent upward movement masked the inward shift.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sabine Klinger","Enzo Weber"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12135","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7600bd3d219ece2e","title":"Is property driving income distribution? – An analysis of the linkage between income and wealth in Finland, France and Spain","abstract":"In this article, the link between financial wealth and pre-tax household income distribution is scrutinised for three European countries using a conceptually fully consistent macro framework. First, national balance sheets are combined with the related income flows. After this, income flows that are not property income but that are considered part of national income (e.g., wages and salaries) are added, the national income flows are broken down by institutional sector, and the household sector income flows separated. Finally, distributional household microdata are used to break down the aggregate household sector income flows by income decile. The article utilises this framework to analyse the evolution of rates of return and capital and labour shares, as well as the way in which the property income flows created by financial wealth have affected household primary income distribution.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Ilja Kristian Kavonius","Veli-Matti Törmälehto"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.02.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-762de25f9465802d","title":"What Firms Do: Gender Inequality in Linked Employer-Employee Data","abstract":"We study the extent to which employer heterogeneity affects gender gaps in earnings across the distribution, over time, and over the life cycle, accounting for cohort effects. Using a linked employer-employee dataset for Italy, we show that the gender gap in firm pay premia explains 34% of the mean gender pay gap, mainly due to between-firm components. Within-firm differences are more important at the top of the distribution and have become more relevant over time. Gender differences in mobility toward firms with higher pay premia and within-firm gender inequality partly explain the gender gap in firm pay premia.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Alessandra Casarico","Salvatore Lattanzio"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/723177","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76563252d185705c","title":"The distributional consequences of rent‐seeking","abstract":"We analyze the distributional effects of rent‐seeking via the financial sector in a model calibrated to US data. Rent‐seeking implies a misallocation of resources that increases wealth inequality among non‐rent‐seekers and for the whole economy. A deterioration in institutional quality implying more rent‐seeking leads to welfare losses for non‐rent‐seekers, especially for those with higher earnings and initial wealth, because they are most affected by the deterioration of the aggregate economy. On the other hand, welfare gains are larger for rent seekers with higher earnings and wealth, who have an increased resource extraction capacity.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Angelos Angelopoulos","Konstantinos Angelopoulos","Spyridon Lazarakis","Apostolis Philippopoulos"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-765e46e0b549e6a3","title":"Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy","abstract":"We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank’s view about macroeconomic developments to price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set that includes the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters’ inflation expectations. This model improves upon existing perfect information models in explaining why, in the data, inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and remain disanchored for years. In the 1970s, U.S. monetary policy is found to signal-persistent inflationary shocks, explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened. The signalling effects of monetary policy also explain why inflation expectations adjusted more sluggishly than inflation after the robust monetary tightening of the 1980s.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Leonardo Melosi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-767c69051251e97a","title":"The Role of Irrigation in the Development of Agriculture in the United States","abstract":"We examine the role of irrigation in explaining U.S. agricultural gains post-1940. Specifically, we analyze how productivity and farm values changed in the western United States as a result of technological and policy changes that expanded access to ground and surface water. To statistically identify the effects, we compare counties based on their potential access to irrigation water defined by physical characteristics. We find areas with access to large streams and/or groundwater increase crop production relative to areas with only small streams by $19 billion annually, equivalent to 90 percent of the total annual increase in the western United States after 1940.","wordCount":102,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Eric C. Edwards","Steven M. Smith"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000608","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7684b78cb1c18513","title":"News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities","abstract":"Using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms we investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households, and conclude that the news topics media report on are good predictors of both inflation and inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model, augmented with a simple media channel, we document that the time series features of relevant topics help explain time-varying information rigidity among households. As such, we provide a novel estimate of state-dependent information rigidities and present new evidence highlighting the role of the media in understanding inflation expectations and information rigidities.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Vegard H. Larsen","Leif Anders Thorsrud","Julia Zhulanova"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-768580098aff1a98","title":"Mutual funds' exits, financial crisis and Darwin","abstract":"It is recognized in the literature that there is a negative relationship between fund performance and fund exit. This paper analyses the performance of 6600 U.S. mutual funds that exited the market in the 2000–2014 period and nearly twice as many U.S. mutual funds that remained operational, to provide evidence on whether the negative exit – performance relationship existed during the 2008 financial crisis. We confirm the general relationship but show that, in contrast to all the other periods, there was no statistically significant exit – performance relationship during the financial crisis. We also show that the impact of expenses and loads on fund exit increased during the crisis. This is consistent with our argument that when some active investors leave the market, the passive ones become important to fund–families, albeit the investors may lose out as a result. We also show that the mergers that occurred in the years following the financial crisis resulted in statistically significantly worse post–merger performance of both the acquirers and of the targets in comparison with their pre–merger performance.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Anna Zalewska","Yue Zhang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101738","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-768d2b8c257f51b0","title":"Unscripted drama: Soccer audience response to suspense, surprise, and shock","abstract":"By modeling minute‐by‐minute television audience figures from English Premier League soccer matches, with close to 50,000 minute‐observations, we show that demand is partly driven by suspense and surprise. We also identify an additional relevant factor of appeal to audiences, namely shock, which refers to the difference between pre‐match and current game outcome probabilities. Suspense, surprise, and shock remain significant in the presence of a traditional measure of outcome uncertainty.","wordCount":69,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Babatunde Buraimo","David Forrest","Ian G. McHale","J.D. Tena"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12874","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-768f5e476d13ec6d","title":"Historical gender discrimination does not explain comparative Western European development: evidence from Portugal, 1300-1900","abstract":"Gender discrimination has been pointed out as a determining factor behind the long-run divergence in incomes of Southern vis-à-vis Northwestern Europe. In this paper, we show that women in Portugal were not historically more discriminated against than those in other parts of Western Europe, including England and the Netherlands. We rely on a new dataset of thousands of observations from archival sources covering six centuries, and we complement it with a qualitative discussion of comparative social norms. Compared with Northwestern Europe, women in Portugal faced similar gender wage gaps, married at similar ages, and did not face more restrictions on labor market participation. Consequently, other factors must have been responsible for the Little Divergence of Western European incomes.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Nuno Palma","Jaime Reis","Lisbeth Rodrigues"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101481","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7692ceffcec4a4e1","title":"Employment, Hours, and Earnings Consequences of Job Loss: US Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey","abstract":"Data are used from the 1984–2016 Displaced Workers Surveys (DWS) to investigate the incidence and consequences of job loss, 1981–2015. These data show a record high rate of job loss in the Great Recession, with serious employment consequences for job losers, including very low rates of re-employment and difficulty finding full-time employment. The average reduction in weekly earnings for job losers making a full-time–full-time transition are relatively small, with a substantial minority reporting earning more on their new job than on the lost job. Most of the cost of job loss comes from difficulty finding new full-time employment.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Henry S. Farber"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692353","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76954fc13dfc7a69","title":"Inequality of Opportunity in Wages and Consumption in Egypt","abstract":"Most explanations of the recent political upheavals in Egypt since 2011 include a reference to rising inequality, but the usual indicators of income inequality in Egypt do not support that inequality was on the rise prior to the uprisings. In this paper we provide measures of inequality of opportunity in wages and consumption for Egypt at different points in time from 1988 to 2012 that shed light on the gap between popular perceptions and measured indices of inequality. Our findings indicate that although measures of inequality of wage income have increased over time in Egypt starting in 1998, the share attributable to circumstances declined steadily throughout the whole period. We attribute this decline to the fact that outcomes for individuals from a middle class background have moved closer to the outcomes of those from a poor background. The outcomes for those from privileged backgrounds remain quite apart from the rest.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Ragui Assaad","Caroline Krafft","John E. Roemer","Djavad Salehi‐Isfahani"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12289","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76a75ed26ac0d6b4","title":"Using the Sequence‐Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous‐Agent Models","abstract":"We propose a general and highly efficient method for solving and estimating general equilibrium heterogeneous‐agent models with aggregate shocks in discrete time. Our approach relies on the rapid computation of sequence‐space Jacobians —the derivatives of perfect‐foresight equilibrium mappings between aggregate sequences around the steady state. Our main contribution is a fast algorithm for calculating Jacobians for a large class of heterogeneous‐agent problems. We combine this algorithm with a systematic approach to composing and inverting Jacobians to solve for general equilibrium impulse responses. We obtain a rapid procedure for likelihood‐based estimation and computation of nonlinear perfect‐foresight transitions. We apply our methods to three canonical heterogeneous‐agent models: a neoclassical model, a New Keynesian model with one asset, and a New Keynesian model with two assets.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Adrien Auclert","Bence Bardóczy","Matthew Rognlie","Ludwig Straub"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta17434","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76b6178a089e13bb","title":"Fuel taxation, emissions policy, and competitive advantage in the diffusion of European diesel automobiles","abstract":"Economic integration agreements have significantly decreased import tariffs. We investigate whether national policies can be an effective replacement for tariffs to protect domestic industry. We show that (a) European fuel taxes and vehicle emissions policy favored diesel vehicles, a technology popular with European consumers but largely offered only by domestic automakers; (b) European automakers benefited from pro‐diesel fuel taxes and a lenient NO x emissions policy to earn significant profits from diesel cars; and (c) that both policies amounted to significant nontariff trade policies equivalent to an import tariff between two to three times the official rate.","wordCount":97,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Eugenio J. Miravete","María José Moral Rincón","Jeff Thurk"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12243","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76bd5e73a25faa2b","title":"The global economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"The COVID-19 global pandemic has caused significant global economic and social disruption. We use global data on cases and deaths, and public health and economic policy responses to the pandemic, to illustrate the alternative past and potential future trajectories of the pandemic. Shocks to labor and sectoral productivity, consumption, government expenditure, and country and sector risk premia are used within a global multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model: the G-Cubed, to assess the economic impacts of COVID-19 under those scenarios. We illustrate the vital role of public health responses in managing a pandemic and restoring confidence among economic agents. The role of global coordination amidst a pandemic is also highlighted. We also compare the GDP projections under the alternative scenarios with the actual GDP outcomes in 2020 and 2021. Despite the uncertainties regarding the health outcomes of COVID-19 and the health and economic policy responses to the pandemic, we demonstrate that the actual outcomes lie within those projected for the scenarios.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Warwick J. McKibbin","Roshen Fernando"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106551","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-76be4a765e0f7307","title":"The value of commuting time, flexibility, and job security: Evidence from current and recent jobseekers in Flanders","abstract":"This study examines jobseekers' preferences for a variety of job attributes. It is based on a choice experiment involving 1,852 clients of the Flemish Public Employment Service (PES). Respondents value flexibility (e.g., remote work and schedule flexibility), job security and social impact of the job, and require significant compensation for longer commute times. A majority (70%) would need very substantial wage increase beyond their acceptable baseline wage to compensate for less flexibility, job security or social impact. These findings enhance our understanding of labour supply decisions and can inform the design of salary packages and HR policies.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Bert Van Landeghem","Thomas Dohmen","Arne Risa Hole","Annemarie Künn‐Nelen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102631","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-76c8c29aae9860b5","title":"The Timing of Technology Adoption in Network Industries","abstract":"This paper analyzes the effect of network externalities on firms’ timing of new technology adoption in a network industry. In a pre-commitment game under Cournot competition, network effects tend to accelerate the timing of the leader and the follower regarding their adoption dates: under the rational expectations hypothesis and also under the firms’ output commitment. However, while an increase in network effects tends to reduce the discrepancy between the optimal social timing of the new technology adoption and the market-driven time of adoption in the rational expectations model, the opposite occurs under the output commitment game.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Leonard F. S. Wang","Domenico Buccella"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09902-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-76cb4f9bc7b97cd3","title":"Transition to Clean Technology","abstract":"We develop an endogenous growth model in which clean and dirty technologies compete in production. Research can be directed to either technology. If dirty technologies are more advanced, the transition to clean technology can be difficult. Carbon taxes and research subsidies may encourage production and innovation in clean technologies, though the transition will typically be slow. We estimate the model using microdata from the US energy sector. We then characterize the optimal policy path that heavily relies on both subsidies and taxes. Finally, we evaluate various alternative policies. Relying only on carbon taxes or delaying intervention has significant welfare costs.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Ufuk Akcigit","Douglas Hanley","William R. Kerr"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684511","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76e88895b893f9c8","title":"Towards an explanation of inequality in premodern societies: the role of colonies, urbanization, and high population density","abstract":"Using a newly expanded set of 41 social tables from premodern societies, this article tries to identify the factors associated with the level of inequality and the inequality extraction ratio (how close to the maximum inequality the elites have pushed actual inequality). Strong evidence is found to show that elites in colonies were more extractive, and that more densely populated and less urbanized countries exhibited lower extraction ratios. Several possibilities are proposed, linking high population density to low inequality and to low elite extraction.","wordCount":84,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Branko Milanović"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12613","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76f1a9b08868fc9e","title":"The Transmission of Inequality Across Multiple Generations: Testing Recent Theories With Evidence From Germany","abstract":"This article shows that across multiple generations, the persistence of occupational and educational attainment in Germany is larger than estimates from two generations suggest. We consider two recent interpretations. First, we assess Gregory Clark’s hypotheses that the true rate of intergenerational persistence is higher than the observed rate, as high as 0.75, and time‐invariant. Our evidence supports the first but not the other two hypotheses. Second, we test for independent effects of grandparents. We show that the coefficient on grandparent status is positive in a wide class of Markovian models and present evidence against its causal interpretation.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Sebastian Braun","Jan Stuhler"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12453","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-76f1c1a5c167b24c","title":"Technology and Child Development: Evidence from the One Laptop per Child Program","abstract":"This paper presents results from a large-scale randomized evaluation of the One Laptop per Child program, using data collected after 15 months of implementation in 318 primary schools in rural Peru. The program increased the ratio of computers per student from 0.12 to 1.18 in treatment schools. This expansion in access translated into substantial increases in use of computers both at school and at home. No evidence is found of effects on test scores in math and language. There is some evidence, though inconclusive, about positive effects on general cognitive skills.","wordCount":91,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Julián Cristia","Pablo Ibarrarán","Santiago Cueto","Ana Santiago","Eugenio Severín"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150385","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76fd8265742953ee","title":"Gender Differences in Recognition for Group Work","abstract":"We study whether gender influences credit attribution for group work using observational data and two experiments. We use data from academic economists to test whether coauthorship matters differently for tenure for men and women. We find that, conditional on quality and other observables, men are tenured similarly regardless of whether they coauthor or solo author. Women, however, are less likely to receive tenure the more they coauthor. We then conduct two experiments that demonstrate that biases in credit attribution in settings without confounds exist. Taken together, our results are best explained by gender and stereotypes influencing credit attribution for group work.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Heather Sarsons","Klarita Gërxhani","Ernesto Reuben","Arthur Schram"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711401","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-76fea797db38debb","title":"The Value of Flexible Work: Evidence from Uber Drivers","abstract":"Technology has facilitated new, nontraditional work arrangements, including the ride-sharing company Uber. Uber drivers provide rides anytime they choose. Using data on hourly earnings and driving, we document driver utilization of this real-time flexibility. We propose that the value of flexibility can be measured as deriving from time variation in the drivers' reservation wage. Measuring time variation in drivers' reservation wages allows us to estimate the surplus and labor supply implications of Uber relative to alternative, less-flexible work arrangements. Despite other drawbacks to the Uber arrangement, we estimate that Uber drivers earn more than twice the surplus they would in less-flexible arrangements.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["M. Keith Chen","Judith A. Chevalier","Peter E. Rossi","Emily Oehlsen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","L","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/702171","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76fee0bc3a60fd11","title":"Bayesian Inference in Spatial Sample Selection Models","abstract":"In this study, we consider Bayesian methods for the estimation of a sample selection model with spatially correlated disturbance terms. We design a set of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on the method of data augmentation. The natural parameterization for the covariance structure of our model involves an unidentified parameter that complicates posterior analysis. The unidentified parameter – the variance of the disturbance term in the selection equation – is handled in different ways in these algorithms to achieve identification for other parameters. The Bayesian estimator based on these algorithms can account for the selection bias and the full covariance structure implied by the spatial correlation. We illustrate the implementation of these algorithms through a simulation study and an empirical application.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Osman Doğan","Süleyman Taşpınar"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12187","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-76ffaf151e2113f8","title":"Do different shocks in health matter for wealth?","abstract":"We study the effect of hospital admissions for specific conditions on wealth for the Dutch population aged 70-79. We consider 14 disease groups that affect mortality and disability to different extents. We apply a \"difference-in-timing\" design comparing individuals admitted in one year to similar individuals admitted later. Because the protection against income risks and medical spending is high, we can identify changes in saving behaviors driven by preferences for consumption, saving, and bequests, rather than by changes in budget constraints. Although the health shocks differ in mortality and disability, we find hardly any impact on wealth across conditions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Johan Bonekamp","Bram Wouterse"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102719","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7701a9487eb81b10","title":"Informing the Market: The Effect of Modern Information Technologies on Information Production","abstract":"Modern information technologies have fundamentally changed how information is disseminated in financial markets. Using the staggered implementation of the EDGAR system from 1993 to 1996 as a shock to information dissemination technologies, we find evidence that internet dissemination of corporate disclosures increases information production by corporate outsiders. Trades by individual investors, especially those with access to the internet, become more informative about future stock returns following the EDGAR implementation. The amount and accuracy of information produced by sell-side analysts increase after the implementation. These results suggest that greater and broader information dissemination facilitated by modern information technologies improves information production.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Meng Gao","Jiekun Huang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz100","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7703e43ef0cad373","title":"The propagation of industrial business cycles","abstract":"This paper examines the evolution of the distribution of industry-specific business cycle linkages, which are modeled through a multivariate Markov-switching model and estimated by Gibbs sampling. Using nonparametric density estimation approaches, we find that the number and location of modes in the distribution of industrial dissimilarities change over the business cycle. There is a relatively stable trimodal pattern during expansionary and recessionary phases characterized by highly, moderately, and lowly synchronized industries. However, during phase changes, the density mass spreads from moderately synchronized industries to lowly synchronized industries. This agrees with a sequential transmission of the industrial business cycle dynamics.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Máximo Camacho","Danilo Leiva‐León"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001140","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-770c14faf0fe238a","title":"Rational cuts? The local impact of closing undersized schools","abstract":"The availability of public education services can influence residential choices. Therefore, policies aimed at ‘rationalising’ service provision by reducing the number of undersized nodes in the public school network can lead to population decline, especially in spatially isolated areas lacking valid alternatives to the removed services. This paper examines the demographic and income effects of primary school closures by exploiting an Italian education reform that resulted in the contraction of the school network. We assess whether school closures impact households’ residential choices, over and above preexisting negative population trends that motivate school closures. Our findings indicate that municipalities affected by school closures experience significant reductions in population and income. The effect is primarily driven by peripheral municipalities located far away from economic centres and distant from the next available primary school. This evidence indicates that school ‘rationalisation policies’, by fostering depopulation of peripheral areas, have an influence on the spatial distribution of households and income, thus affecting territorial disparities.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Marco Di Cataldo","Giulia Romani"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104057","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-771d2cc4ce015d2b","title":"Wages, labour markets, and living standards in China, 1530–1840","abstract":"This article studies the long-term wage development in China between 1530 and 1840. In the long run, nominal wages moved in tandem with prices, but did not respond as quickly as the increase in prices. Real wages experienced two substantial falls between the 1620s-1650s and the 1740s-1760s, but remained relatively stable in the remainder of the period examined. Rural-urban wage disparities suggest that the agricultural sector, rather than urban industries, continued to absorb surplus labour. A comparison of wages in Lower Yangzi China and England suggests that the wage gap widens after 1700.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Ziang Liu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101569","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-771fc54903ea8d0c","title":"The cost of strategy-proofness in school choice","abstract":"We compare the outcomes of the most prominent strategy-proof and stable algorithm (Deferred Acceptance, DA) and the most prominent strategy-proof and Pareto optimal algorithm (Top Trading Cycles, TTC) to the allocation generated by the rank-minimizing mechanism (RM). While one would expect that RM improves upon both DA and TTC in terms of rank efficiency, the size of the improvement is nonetheless surprising. Moreover, while it is not explicitly designed to do so, RM also significantly improves the placement of the worst-off student. Furthermore, RM generates less justified envy than TTC. We corroborate our findings using data on school admissions in Budapest.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Josué Ortega","Thilo Klein"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.07.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-772fb7d1b5896fc4","title":"Do Fund Managers Misestimate Climatic Disaster Risk","abstract":"We examine whether professional money managers overreact to large climatic disasters. We find that managers within a major disaster region underweight disaster zone stocks to a much greater degree than distant managers and that this aversion to disaster zone stocks is related to a salience bias that decreases over time and distance from the disaster, rather than to superior information possessed by close managers. This overreaction can be costly to fund investors for some especially salient disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes: a long-short strategy that exploits the overreaction generates a significant DGTW-adjusted return over the following 2 years.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Shashwat Alok","Nitin Kumar","Russ Wermers"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz143","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-77432106247c737f","title":"How the Reformulation of OxyContin Ignited the Heroin Epidemic","abstract":"We attribute the recent quadrupling of heroin death rates to the August 2010 reformulation of an oft-abused prescription opioid, OxyContin. The new abuse-deterrent formulation led many consumers to substitute an inexpensive alternative, heroin. Using structural break techniques and variation in substitution risk, we find that opioid consumption stops rising in August 2010, heroin deaths begin climbing the following month, and growth in heroin deaths was greater in areas with greater prereformulation access to heroin and opioids. The reformulation did not generate a reduction in combined heroin and opioid mortality: each prevented opioid death was replaced with a heroin death.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["William N. Evans","Ethan M.J. Lieber","Patrick Power"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00755","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-77775357a64090d9","title":"Anatomy of Corporate Borrowing Constraints","abstract":"Macro-finance analyses commonly link firms’ borrowing constraints to the liquidation value of physical assets. For U.S. nonfinancial firms, we show that 20% of debt by value is based on such assets (asset-based lending in creditor parlance), whereas 80% is based predominantly on cash flows from firms’ operations (cash flow–based lending). A standard borrowing constraint restricts total debt as a function of cash flows measured using operating earnings (earnings-based borrowing constraints). These features shape firm outcomes on the margin: first, cash flows in the form of operating earnings can directly relax borrowing constraints; second, firms are less vulnerable to collateral damage from asset price declines, and fire sale amplification may be mitigated. Taken together, our findings point to new venues for modeling firms’ borrowing constraints in macro-finance studies.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Chen Lian","Yueran Ma"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa030","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7780b549e1814def","title":"Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility","abstract":"This paper shows that higher macroeconomic uncertainty causes higher oil price volatility. Regimes of low and high uncertainty are identified in a threshold VAR model in which the effects of structural oil demand and supply shocks are estimated. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by global industrial production volatility, significantly increases the sensitivity of oil prices to shocks in oil demand and supply. This occurs as uncertainty lowers the price elasticity of oil demand and supply. The difference in the estimated oil price elasticities is economically meaningful as the price impact of a similar change in oil production might double when it hits the economy in uncertain times. As such, varying uncertainty can explain why oil price volatility is typically higher during periods such as financial crises and recessions, and why oil price volatility changes over time more generally.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Ine Van Robays"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12124","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-778f44c2d4a22ce1","title":"Do people intervene to make others behave prosocially?","abstract":"We experimentally investigate people's willingness to intervene in others' decision-making in order to promote a charitable donation. We find that only a minority of those subjects who would donate themselves enforce the donation by banning the selfish choice from the decision-maker's choice menu. Bans are more acceptable if they are implemented only after the decision-makers could choose between the selfish and the prosocial option themselves. Also, many subjects decide against offering decision-makers a monetary incentive to switch from the selfish to the prosocial choice. We discuss potential hypotheses about underlying motivations for the (non-)usage of interventions, with a special focus on the hypothesis that interventions to promote prosocial choice are more acceptable the more they respect the autonomy of others.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Viola Ackfeld","Axel Ockenfels"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.03.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-77a3dc6630ec63b7","title":"Women’s empowerment in agriculture and dietary quality across the life course: Evidence from Bangladesh","abstract":"Using nationally-representative survey data from rural Bangladesh, we examine the relationship between women's empowerment in agriculture and indicators of individual dietary quality. Our findings suggest that women's empowerment is associated with better dietary quality of individuals within the household, but the strength of this association varies across the life course. Women's empowerment is correlated with more diverse diets of children under five, but empowerment measures are not consistently associated with increases in nutrient intake for this age group. Rather, maternal schooling and household socio-economic status play a more important role for younger children. Women's empowerment is positively and significantly associated with adult men's and women's dietary diversity and nutrient intakes. Empowerment does not benefit all individuals within the household equally, with gender bias emerging in adolescence. Variations in the strength of the association between women's empowerment and different individuals' dietary quality across the life course has implications for the design and targeting of interventions to improve dietary quality, particularly of women, children, and adolescent girls.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Esha Sraboni","Agnes Quisumbing"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.09.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-77a712bd74d9cc05","title":"Prince: An improved method for measuring incentivized preferences","abstract":"This paper introduces the Prince incentive system for measuring preferences. Prince combines the tractability of direct matching, allowing for the precise and direct elicitation of indifference values, with the clarity and validity of choice lists. It makes incentive compatibility completely transparent to subjects, avoiding the opaqueness of the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism. It can be used for adaptive experiments while avoiding any possibility of strategic behavior by subjects. To illustrate Prince’s wide applicability, we investigate preference reversals, the discrepancy between willingness to pay and willingness to accept, and the major components of decision making under uncertainty: utilities, subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitudes. Prince allows for measuring utility under risk and ambiguity in a tractable and incentive-compatible manner even if expected utility is violated. Our empirical findings support modern behavioral views, e.g., confirming the endowment effect and showing that utility is closer to linear than classically thought. In a comparative study, Prince gives better results than a classical implementation of the random incentive system.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Cathleen Johnson","Aurélien Baillon","Han Bleichrodt","Zhihua Li","Dennie van Dolder","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09346-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-77b14b19514fcfdb","title":"The Gold Pool (1961–1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation","abstract":"The Gold Pool was probably the most ambitious case of central bank cooperation in history. Major central banks pooled interventions to stabilize the dollar price of gold. Why did it collapse? From at least 1964, the fate of the Pool was, in fact, tied to sterling, the first line of defense for the dollar. Sterling’s devaluation in November 1967 eventually spurred speculation and unbearable losses for the Pool. Inflationary U.S. policies were weakening confidence in the dollar. The demise of the Pool provides a striking example of contagion between reserve currencies and the limits of central bank cooperation.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Michael D. Bordo","Éric Monnet","Alain Naef"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000548","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-77b60fa13bbe0859","title":"Interest rates and foreign spillovers","abstract":"We show that US interest rates are the main source of spillovers globally and are less exposed to foreign shocks. European rates were insulated from foreign spillovers during the sovereign debt crisis and the ECB’s more aggressive monetary policies. The US 2-year interest rate is driven by US monetary policy and demand shocks, which in turn spillover to foreign interest rates. We propose a novel approach within a SVAR to identify the country-source and the type of shocks, where countries are treated symmetrically, by using magnitude and sign restrictions with the impact matrix constrained within bounds resulting from event-study regressions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Roberto A. De Santis","Srečko Zimic"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104043","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-77be147d2b1d69e3","title":"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates","abstract":"We estimate the causal effect of each county in the United States on children's incomes in adulthood. We first estimate a fixed effects model that is identified by analyzing families who move across counties with children of different ages. We then use these fixed effect estimates to (i) quantify how much places matter for intergenerational mobility, (ii) construct forecasts of the causal effect of growing up in each county that can be used to guide families seeking to move to opportunity, and (iii) characterize which types of areas produce better outcomes. For children growing up in low-income families, each year of childhood exposure to a one standard deviation (std. dev.) better county increases income in adulthood by 0.5%. There is substantial variation in counties' causal effects even within metro areas. Counties with less concentrated poverty, less income inequality, better schools, a larger share of two-parent families, and lower crime rates tend to produce better outcomes for children in poor families. Boys' outcomes vary more across areas than girls' outcomes, and boys have especially negative outcomes in highly segregated areas. Areas that generate better outcomes have higher house prices on average, but our approach uncovers many \"opportunity bargains\"-places that generate good outcomes but are not very expensive.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Raj Chetty","Nathaniel Hendren"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-77bf997a2153c46f","title":"The Causes and Consequences of Test Score Manipulation: Evidence from the New York Regents Examinations","abstract":"We show that the design and decentralized scoring of New York’s high school exit exams—the Regents Examinations—led to systematic manipulation of test scores just below important proficiency cutoffs. Exploiting a series of reforms that eliminated score manipulation, we find heterogeneous effects of test score manipulation on academic outcomes. While inflating a score increases the probability of a student graduating from high school by about 17 percentage points, the probability of taking advanced coursework declines by roughly 10 percentage points. We argue that these results are consistent with test score manipulation helping less advanced students on the margin of dropping out but hurting more advanced students that are not pushed to gain a solid foundation in the introductory material.","wordCount":118,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Thomas S. Dee","Will Dobbie","Brian Jacob","Jonah Rockoff"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170520","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-77c757aa48b80fcb","title":"Optimal fisheries management and the response to price changes","abstract":"The literature on how price changes affect optimally managed fisheries is mostly concerned with how fish stocks and harvest rates are affected in steady state. There is little published on how prices affect optimal harvest rates at stock levels outside of steady state. Here we show the effect of an unanticipated and permanent price increase. It is shown that in a model of a pure schooling fishery, if the stock is below the steady state, it is optimal to harvest less if the price goes up and vice versa. It is also shown that in a model with stock dependent harvest costs, the optimal response to a price increase is to reduce the harvest rate for low stock levels even if the optimal harvest rate increases close to the steady state. Empirical relevance is demonstrated by illustrating the theoretical results in an estimated model.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Eric Nævdal"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101461","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-77d5e37533afc58b","title":"Return Migration, Self‐selection and Entrepreneurship","abstract":"Are return migrants more entrepreneurial? Existing literature has not addressed how estimating the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self‐selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper exploits exogenous variation provided by the civil war and the incidence of agricultural plagues in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to overall negative unobservable return migrant self‐selection, which results in an under‐estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator that does not control for self‐selection at both the initial migration and at the final return migration stages.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Cátia Batista","Tara McIndoe‐Calder","Pedro C. Vicente"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12176","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-77d66a57f568a2b2","title":"Stepping up during a crisis: The unintended effects of a noncontributory pension program during the Covid-19 pandemic","abstract":"We use a regression discontinuity design to study the impacts of a noncontributory pension program covering one-third of Bolivian households during the COVID-19 pandemic. Becoming eligible for the program during the crisis increased the probability that households had a week's worth of food stocked by 25% and decreased the probability of going hungry by 40%. Although the program was not designed to provide emergency assistance, it provided unintended positive impacts during the crisis. The program's effects on hunger were particularly large for households that lost their livelihoods during the crisis and for low-income households. The results suggest that, during a systemic crisis, a preexisting near-universal pension program can quickly deliver positive impacts in line with the primary goals of a social safety net composed of an income-targeted cash transfer and an unemployment insurance program.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Nicolás Bottan","Bridget Hoffmann","Diego Vera‐Cossio"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102635","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-77e46dc6336e54b5","title":"Enforcement, Socioeconomic Diversity, and Tax Filing Compliance in the United States","abstract":"In this article, we examine the determinants of tax filing compliance in the United States. We use county-level data on non-filing rates for the tax year 2000, obtained directly from the Internal Revenue Service. We include explanatory variables identified in the “rational compliance” framework, including an enforcement index against identified non-filers, the audit rate of filers, and the average penalty rate for both filers and non-filers. We also examine the role of socioeconomic diversity on tax compliance, testing whether within-county heterogeneity in household income, language, race, and religion can help explain variation in non-filing rates. We find that non-filing is increasing with heterogeneity by race, although not by income or language, and that non-filing is decreasing with heterogeneity by religious membership. As for enforcement variables, we find that non-filing rates tend to fall with the enforcement index. Other variables have somewhat mixed results.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["James Alm","Jeremy Clark","Kara Leibel"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12106","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-77e76c472d1c9010","title":"The Role of Government in the Market for Electric Vehicles: Evidence from China","abstract":"Governments in many countries have offered various incentives to promote the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs). This study examines the effectiveness of various policy measures that underlie the rapid development of the EV market in China, by far the world's largest such market. The analysis is based on detailed data on EV sales, local and central government incentive programs, and charging stations in 150 cities from 2015 to 2018. The empirical framework addresses the potential endogeneity of key variables, such as local policies and charging infrastructure, by using a city‐border‐regression design and instrumental variable approach. We find that consumer subsidies for vehicle purchases accounted for more than half of EV sales in China. Nevertheless, investments in charging infrastructure were much more cost‐effective than consumer subsidies. An inexpensive policy that merely provided EVs with a distinctive, green license plate was strikingly effective. These findings demonstrate the varying efficacy of different policy instruments and highlight the critical role of the government in promoting clean technologies.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Shanjun Li","Xianglei Zhu","Yiding Ma","Fan Zhang","Hui Zhou"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22362","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-77f0da19623f52fb","title":"Heuristic assumptions","abstract":"Interpreting any decision requires making auxiliary assumptions regarding how the decision makers viewed their options and related them to their lives. Theories constrain those assumptions. The more general the theory, the fewer constraints it imposes and the more assumptions must be made in any application. Like the rational actor models that they challenged, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s heuristics-and-biases and prospect theory research programs were general theories, with broad application. One of the many marvels of their landmark studies is that they rarely test their auxiliary assumptions. Rather, readers were trusted to agree about how people interpret the tasks (e.g., select anchors in studies of that heuristic). Subsequent studies have often accepted those interpretations in order to examine boundary conditions (e.g., extreme anchors). Applying the theories to naturally occurring tasks requires making additional auxiliary assumptions. This article illustrates three ways to evaluate those assumptions: direct assessment, systematic manipulation, and archival analysis. It concludes with proposals for loosely coordinated evaluation of shared and contested assumptions.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Baruch Fischhoff"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09437-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-77f36c6730ffa68f","title":"Firm performance, corporate governance and executive compensation in Pakistan","abstract":"This study examines the effects of firm performance and corporate governance on chief executive officer (CEO) compensation in an emerging market, Pakistan. Using a more robust Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation approach for a sample of non-financial firms listed at Karachi Stock Exchange over the period 2005–2012, we find that both current- and previous-year accounting performances has positive influence on CEO compensation. However, stock market performance does not appear to have a positive impact on executive compensation. We further find that ownership concentration is positively related with CEO compensation, indicating some kind of collusion between management and largest shareholder to get personal benefits. Inconsistent with agency theory, CEO duality appears to have a negative influence, while board size and board independence have no convincing relationship with CEO compensation, indicating board ineffectiveness in reducing CEO entrenchment. The results of dynamic GMM model suggest that CEO pay is highly persistent and takes time to adjust to long-run equilibrium.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh","Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah","Saeed Akbar"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1386277","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-77fa462fff1f4e1b","title":"Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations","abstract":"A shock that increases short-term inflation expectations has negative macroeconomic effects, increasing inflation and decreasing output. The third-order solution of a rich DSGE model with firm dynamics shows that the endogenous increase in uncertainty is key for both amplifying the transmission mechanism and providing robust sign restrictions to identify the inflation expectations shock in an empirical VAR. The model, estimated using limited information impulse response matching techniques, shows the importance of endogenous uncertainty and firm dynamics for the transmission mechanism of an inflation expectations shock. Furthermore, shocks that increase inflation expectations have stronger effects than shocks that reduce inflation expectations.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Guido Ascari","Stefano Fasani","Jakob Grazzini","Lorenza Rossi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.04.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7818eb55f6e81bd7","title":"Fiscal Capacity and Dualism in Colonial States: The French Empire 1830–1962","abstract":"What was the capacity of European colonial states? How fiscally extractive were they? What was their capacity to provide public goods and services? And did this change in the “developmentalist” era of colonialism? To answer these questions, we use archival sources to build a new dataset on colonial states of the second French colonial empire (1830–1962). French colonial states extracted a substantial amount of revenue, but they were under-administered because public expenditure entailed high wage costs. These costs remained a strong constraint in the “developmentalist” era of colonialism, despite a dramatic increase in fiscal capacity and large overseas subsidies.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Denis Cogneau","Yannick Dupraz","Sandrine Mesplé‐Somps"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050721000140","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-781a4f1011f1d7a1","title":"The cost of influence: How gifts to physicians shape prescriptions and drug costs","abstract":"This paper investigates the influence of gifts - monetary and in-kind payments - from drug firms to US physicians on prescription behavior and drug costs. Using causal models and machine learning, we estimate physicians' heterogeneous responses to payments on antidiabetic prescriptions. We find that payments lead to increased prescription of brand drugs, resulting in a cost rise of $23 per dollar value of transfer received. Paid physicians show higher responses when they treat higher proportions of patients receiving a government-funded low-income subsidy that lowers out-of-pocket drug costs. We estimate that introducing a national gift ban would reduce diabetes drug costs by 2%.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Melissa Newham","Marica Valente"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102887","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-781c0005e25e710d","title":"Trade credit and the stability of supply chains","abstract":"We show that trade credit flows increase when a firm in a production network becomes a less reliable supplier due to an operating shock. Affected firms extend more trade credit when their customers have lower switching costs or expect more disruption. Suppliers that are more dependent on the affected firms facilitate the trade credit extension. However, when financial constraints at the affected firms and their suppliers prevent the increase in trade credit, customers sever their relationships with the affected firms, and the sales of the affected firms and their suppliers drop, suggesting that trade credit enhances production network stability.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Nuri Ersahin","Mariassunta Giannetti","Ruidi Huang"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103830","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-78417f6fbe9d5fcf","title":"Unlocking neighborhood density","abstract":"Studying the components of neighborhood population density reveals a complex picture that little is known about. Hidden under the same level of population density, neighborhoods can vastly differ in crowding, if residential coverage or building heights are moving in opposite directions. We study this heterogeneity in density components and how it is linked to the variation in neighborhood socio-economic characteristics that define modern cities. To do so, we use novel high-resolution (10 m × 10 m) geo-spatial data on building height and footprints in combination with Norwegian register data. This data allows us to decompose the variation of density into its components, as well as along various margins. We identify urban spatial structures with a latent profile analysis. These data-driven density profiles turn out to be strongly associated with the sorting of people by socio-economic characteristics, such as income and demographic variables. Our results show that below the surface of density, there is the so-far unknown potential to learn about the prevalence and geography of socio-economic groups in the absence of micro-level data.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Melanie Krause","André Seidel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103708","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7844d5cb659c1979","title":"Digital economy value chain: concept, model structure, and mechanism","abstract":"The paper breaks through the existing research on digital economy and value chain, puts forward to digital economy value chain (DEVC) for the first time, discusses the connotation, value activity composition, and value chain characteristics of the digital economy value chain. Digital Economy Value Chain is the innovation of the value chain driven by digital elements (data, digital technology, digital mode, etc.) and the integration of the digital economy and value chain. Its foothold in the digital elements and its essence is the chain organization of value creation activities of the digital economy. Every value-added link of the digital economy value chain can realize value creations. The flow direction of the value chain is the process of value creation and value transfer. At the same time, this study attempts to analyse the operation mechanism of the digital economy value chain. This paper analyzes the formation mechanism, transmission mechanism, and the working mechanism of the digital economy value chain, reveals the operation mechanism of the digital economy value chain, and constructs a complete theoretical framework of the digital economic value chain.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Zhenlong Miao"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1899121","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-78481e243c3c974f","title":"A global decline in research productivity? Evidence from China and Germany","abstract":"In a recent paper, Bloom et al. (2020) find evidence for a substantial decline in research productivity in the U.S. economy during the last 40 years. In this paper, we replicate their findings for China and Germany, using detailed firm-level data spanning three decades. Our results indicate that diminishing returns in idea production are a global phenomenon, not just confined to the U.S.","wordCount":63,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Philipp Boeing","Paul Hünermund"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109646","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-784c1cfe76af24db","title":"On the Share of Inheritance in Aggregate Wealth: Europe and the USA, 1900–2010","abstract":"This paper provides historical series on the evolution of the share of inherited wealth in aggregate private wealth in Europe (France, the UK, Germany, Sweden) and the USA over the 1900–2010 period. Until 1910, the inheritance share was very high in Europe (70–80%). It then fell abruptly following the 1914–45 shocks, down to about 30–40% during the 1950–80 period, and is back to 50–60% (and rising) since around 2010. The US pattern also appears to be U‐shaped, albeit less marked, and with significant uncertainty regarding recent trends, due to data limitations. We discuss possible interpretations for these long‐run patterns.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Facundo Alvaredo","Bertrand Garbinti","Thomas Piketty"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12233","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-784f8d239bc93543","title":"God games: An experimental study of uncertainty, superstition, and cooperation","abstract":"This paper uses a novel lab experiment to test claims about the origins and functions of religion. We modify the standard public goods game, adding a computer-based agent that adjusts earnings in ways that might depend on players' contributions. Our treatments employ three different descriptions of the adjustment process that loosely correspond to monotheistic, atheistic, and agnostic interpretations of the computer's role. The adjustments neither mask players' contributions nor magnify their impact. Yet players in all three adjustment treatments contribute much more than those who play the standard public goods game. Players' contributions and survey responses show that adjustments induce superstitions in all treatments, with the strongest superstitions appearing in the quasi-monotheistic treatment and the weakest in the quasi-atheistic treatment. Text-based communication raises contributions and strengthens coordination. But when paired with the quasi-monotheistic description, communication also promotes counterproductive quests for winning numbers.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Aidin Hajikhameneh","Laurence R. Iannaccone"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.01.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-78510492636fc1c2","title":"The intertemporal evolution of agriculture and labor over a rapid structural transformation: Lessons from Vietnam","abstract":"We combine nationally representative household and labor force survey data from 1992 to 2016 to provide a detailed description of rural labor market evolution and how it relates to the structural transformation of rural Vietnam, especially within the agricultural sector. Our study adds to the emerging literature on structural transformation in low-income countries using micro-level data and helps to answer several policy-related questions. We find limited employment creation potential of agriculture, especially for youth. Rural-urban real wage convergence has gone hand-in-hand with increased diversification of the rural economy into the non-farm sector nationwide and rapid advances in educational attainment in all sectors' and regions' workforce. Minimum wage laws seem to have played no significant role in increasing agricultural wages. This enhanced integration also manifests in steady attenuation of the longstanding inverse farm size-yield relationship. Farming has remained securely household-based and the family farmland distribution has remained largely unchanged. Small farm sizes have not obstructed mechanization nor the uptake of labor-saving pesticides, consistent with factor substitution induced by rising real wage rates. As rural households rely more heavily on the labor market, human capital accumulation (rather than land endowments) have become the key correlate of improvements in rural household well-being.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Yanyan Liu","Christopher B. Barrett","Trinh Pham","William Violette"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101913","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7862b9bc7edba88d","title":"Explosive Asset Price Bubble Detection with Unknown Bubble Length and Initial Condition","abstract":"Recent research has proposed a method of detecting explosive processes that is based on forward recursions of OLS, right‐tailed, Dickey–Fuller [DF] unit root tests. In this paper, an alternative approach using GLS DF test statistics is considered. We derive limiting distributions for both mean‐invariant and trend‐invariant versions of OLS and GLS‐based Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, International Economic Review 52, 201–226) [PWY] test statistics under a temporary, locally explosive alternative. These limits are shown to be dependent on both the value of the initial condition and the start and end points of the temporary explosive regime. Local asymptotic power simulations show that a GLS version of the PWY statistic offers superior power when a large proportion of the data is explosive, but that the OLS approach is preferred for explosive periods of short duration as a proportion of the total sample. These power differences are magnified by the presence of an asymptotically non‐negligible initial condition. We propose a union of rejections procedure that capitalizes on the respective power advantages of both OLS and GLS‐based approaches. This procedure achieves power close to the effective envelope provided by the two individual PWY tests across all settings of the initial condition and length of the explosive period considered in this paper. These results are shown to be robust to the point in the sample at which the temporary explosive regime occurs. An application of the union procedure to NASDAQ prices confirms the empirical value of this testing strategy.","wordCount":245,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Emily J. Whitehouse"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12270","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-78662aad16827ce1","title":"Ban-the-Box Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods","abstract":"Many localities have in recent years regulated the use of questions about criminal history in hiring, or “banned the box.” We show that these regulations increased employment of residents in high-crime neighborhoods by up to 4 percent, consistent with the central objective of these measures. This effect can be seen in both aggregate employment patterns for high-crime neighborhoods and commuting patterns to workplace destinations with this type of ban. The increases are particularly large in the public sector and in lower-wage jobs. This is the first nationwide evidence that these policies do indeed increase employment opportunities in neighborhoods with many ex-offenders.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Daniel Shoag","Stan Veuger"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711367","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7891c6b9b9a0b795","title":"The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime","abstract":"Every US state has a database of criminal offenders' DNA profiles. These databases receive widespread attention in the media and popular culture, but there has been no rigorous analysis of their impact on crime. This paper intends to fill that gap. I exploit the details and timing of state DNA database expansions in two ways, first to address the effects of DNA profiling on individuals' subsequent criminal behavior and then to address the aggregate effects on crime rates. I show that DNA databases deter crime by profiled offenders, reduce crime rates, and are more cost-effective than traditional law enforcement tools.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jennifer L. Doleac"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150043","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7898954480e050b4","title":"Black-Friendly businesses in cities during the Civil Rights Era","abstract":"Quantitative analysis of Black business districts and evidence on the magnitude of social change leading up to the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, in particular as it relates to the accessibility of public accommodations, is limited. We combine newly digitized data on the precise geocoded location of nearly 6000 Green Book establishments – public accommodations that were friendly towards African American clientele – across major urban areas with existing and new sources of data on social change to understand the dynamics of Black-friendly businesses within cities during the middle of the twentieth century. In doing so, we document a new set of facts. First, we show that the location and growth of Green Book establishments responded to economic forces. Second, we show that there was a large increase in the number of Green Book establishments in cities between 1939 and 1955. Third, for Green Book establishments located in cities for which the Home Owner’s Loan Corporation (HOLC) drew residential security maps, the vast majority (nearly 70 percent) were located in the lowest-grade, redlined neighborhoods. And finally, we show that 1950s urban renewal projects were related to the contraction of non-discriminatory businesses. Collectively, these facts suggest that more research on Black-owned and Black-friendly businesses is needed to fully understand the economics of urban change in the twentieth century.","wordCount":220,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Maggie Jones","Trevon D. Logan","David Rosé","Lisa D. Cook"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103640","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-789b2262d70a3b83","title":"Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension","abstract":"Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade liberalizations ignore this no-arbitrage condition. We outline an estimation routine that is model-consistent and respects the TI. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the welfare gains from re-routing after trade liberalizations can be substantial.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Reto Foellmi","Christian Hepenstrick","David Torun"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-78af4647e3a829fd","title":"CDS and credit: The effect of the bangs on credit insurance, lending and hedging","abstract":"Standardization lowers the cost of insurance increasing credit by non-dealer banks. We assess the differential impacts of “Big Bang” and “Small Bang” contracts and convention changes on market participants across CDS markets and couple comprehensive bank-firm-level CDS trading data from the DTCC to the German credit register containing bi-lateral bank-firm credit exposures. We find that after the Bangs, the cost of buying CDS contracts becomes lower for non-dealer banks and that, because of this decrease in insurance costs, these banks extend relatively more credit to CDS-traded and affected firms compared to dealers, and hedge more effectively. Hence, standardization lowers the cost of credit insurance and leads to a relative increase in credit extensions by non-dealer banks.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Yalın Gündüz","Steven Ongena","Günseli Tümer‐Alkan","Yuejuan Yu"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101583","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-78c0af9e3c606bc1","title":"Artificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation","abstract":"We study the use and economic impact of AI technologies. We propose a new measure of firm-level AI investments using employee resumes. Our measure reveals a stark increase in AI investments across sectors. AI-investing firms experience higher growth in sales, employment, and market valuations. This growth comes primarily through increased product innovation. Our results are robust to instrumenting AI investments using firms' exposure to universities' supply of AI graduates. AI-powered growth concentrates among larger firms and is associated with higher industry concentration. Our results highlight that new technologies like AI can contribute to growth and superstar firms through product innovation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Tania Babina","Anastassia Fedyk","Alex Xi He","James Hodson"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103745","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-78d54dc2c56d5f44","title":"Divesting under Pressure: U.S. firms’ exit in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine","abstract":"We explore the determinants and consequences of U.S. corporations limiting their business operations in Russia in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Firms with Russian exposure experience slightly worse stock market returns when the invasion begins on February 24, 2022. Russia-exposed firms with worse stock-price reactions to the war and greater share of operations in Russia are more likely to subsequently remain in Russia, while firms with milder ex ante exposure are more likely to withdraw or suspend their Russian operations. When U.S. firms announce exits from Russia in the aftermath of the invasion, there are no adverse announcement effects on their returns. Instead, exit announcements are preceded by a negative trend in abnormal returns that ends immediately on the day of the announcement. In regression analyses, immediately preceding negative stock returns are the strongest predictor of firms’ decisions to exit Russia, after size and industry. These results are consistent with firms choosing to limit their Russian presence in response to operational impact and reputational pressure, and the damage to stock returns stops immediately after the exit announcements.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Tetyana Balyuk","Anastassia Fedyk"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-78d9d781350b7c0b","title":"Prominent numbers in DCE cost vectors: A review and an application to wind energy","abstract":"Nearly all discrete choice experiments in environmental valuation have a cost attribute to estimate willingness to pay for the goods and services in question. The composition of the cost vector, however, has received little attention in the literature so far. This paper focuses on whether or not the cost vector should include \"prominent amounts\" (e.g., €1, €2, €5, €10, €20, €50). On the one hand, these amounts are familiar to participants as they are used in everyday life (e.g., coins or banknotes). On the other hand, respondents may not consider the amounts to reflect the cost of environmental programs, affecting credibility. In a review of published discrete choice experiment articles on wind energy, we find little information on how the levels of the cost attribute vectors were chosen and why prominent amounts are (not) included, reflecting the lack of guidance in the literature. In a split-sample survey on renewable energy, we find that the composition of the cost vector does not affect choice frequencies or the perceived difficulty of the task. However, we observe that the cost vector impacts credibility, suggesting that it may impact the validity of the welfare estimates.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Pierre‐Alexandre Mahieu","Klaus Glenk","Jürgen Meyerhoff"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101551","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-78dac702fbc375d1","title":"A characterization of maximum Nash welfare for indivisible goods","abstract":"In the allocation of indivisible goods, the maximum Nash welfare (MNW) rule, which chooses an allocation maximizing the product of the agents’ utilities, has received substantial attention for its fairness. We characterize MNW as the only additive welfarist rule that satisfies envy-freeness up to one good. Our characterization holds even in the simplest setting of two agents.","wordCount":57,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Warut Suksompong"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110956","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-79214991b36b8e4b","title":"Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle","abstract":"Using a long panel data set on Japanese firms, we find that firms make more precise forecasts and less autocorrelated forecast errors as they gain more experience. Then, we build a firm dynamics model where firms gradually learn about their demand by using a noisy signal. Using expectations data over time, we cleanly isolate the learning mechanism from other mechanisms and find that it accounts for 20%–40% of the overall decline in forecast errors over the life cycle. Productivity gains from removing information frictions range from 3% to 12%, with firm entry and exit playing prominent roles.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Cheng Chen","Tatsuro Senga","Chang Sun","Hongyong Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-792182fd706271fd","title":"Are Local Tax Rates Strategic Complements or Strategic Substitutes?","abstract":"The identification of strategic interactions among local governments is typically plagued by endogeneity problems. I exploit the fact that local jurisdictions located close to a state border have some neighbors in another state and instrument the tax rate of neighbor jurisdictions with the state-level tax rate of the neighboring state. I use this instrument to identify strategic personal income tax setting by local jurisdictions in Switzerland and find that tax rates are strategic substitutes. I then develop a residence-based personal income tax competition model and show that tax rates are strategic substitutes if the elasticity of the marginal utility of the public good with respect to the tax rate is above one. This is notably the case in the presence of economies of scale in the public good provision.","wordCount":129,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Raphaël Parchet"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150206","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7921ba83b7fc3af0","title":"Advertising and attachment: exploiting loss aversion through prepurchase information","abstract":"We analyze a monopolist's optimal advertising strategy when consumers are expectation‐based loss‐averse and uncertain about their individual match value with the product. Advertising provides verifiable match value information. It modifies the consumers' reference point and hence their willingness to pay for the product. We show that the optimal advertising strategy pools different consumer types so that some consumers engage in ex ante unfavorable trade. Incomplete informative advertising thus has a persuasive effect. This provides a rationale for policies that force the monopolist to disclose important product characteristics, not only at the point of sale, but also in all promotional materials.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Heiko Karle","Heiner Schumacher"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12208","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-793bc3edc03c23fb","title":"Hospitals as Insurers of Last Resort","abstract":"American hospitals are required to provide emergency medical care to the uninsured. We use previously confidential hospital financial data to study the resulting uncompensated care, medical care for which no payment is received. Using both panel-data methods and case studies, we find that each additional uninsured person costs hospitals approximately $800 each year. Increases in the uninsured population also lower hospital profit margins, suggesting that hospitals do not pass along all uncompensated-care costs to other parties such as hospital employees or privately insured patients. A hospital's uncompensated-care costs also increase when a neighboring hospital closes.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Craig Garthwaite","Tal Gross","Matthew Notowidigdo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150581","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-793e7de61b33b6a6","title":"Carbon management ability and climate risk exposure: An international investigation","abstract":"Using a large international sample of firms, we examine the relation between carbon management ability (CMA) and firm-level climate risk exposure. We find that CMA is negatively associated with climate risk exposure. More importantly, we show that firms with high-CMA managers tend to achieve a reduction in climate risk exposure through enhancing regulatory compliance (evidenced by fewer stakeholder rights violations), reducing environmental, social, and governance-related controversies, investing in research and development, undertaking more investment in environmental initiatives, and cultivating a favorable corporate culture. Cross-sectional analyses indicate that the negative association between CMA and climate risk exposure is stronger for firms in carbon-intensive sectors and firms with a dedicated corporate sustainability committee. Further, we reveal that CMA exerts a greater influence on climate risk exposure in stakeholder-oriented countries and in countries that have signed the Paris Agreement. Finally, we reveal that firms with high-CMA managers tend to have better financial performance. Overall, our findings indicate that CMA plays a crucial role in driving firms towards more sustainable and responsible business practices, leading to better corporate performance and enhanced corporate reputation.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Le Luo","Junru Zhang","Chen Zheng"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107415","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7946821ca9b8423a","title":"Many-to-many matching and price discrimination","abstract":"We study centralized many-to-many matching in markets where agents have private information about (vertical) characteristics that determine match values. Our analysis reveals how matching patterns reflect cross-subsidization between sides. Agents are endogenously partitioned into consumers and inputs. At the optimum, the costs of procuring agents-inputs are compensated by the gains from agents-consumers. We show how such cross-subsidization can be achieved through matching rules that have a simple threshold structure, and deliver testable predictions relating the optimal price schedules to the distribution of the agents' characteristics. The analysis sheds light on the practice of large matching intermediaries, such as media and business-to-business platforms, advertising exchanges, and commercial lobbying firms.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Renato Gomes","Alessandro Pavan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1904","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-795d9a93d64241e8","title":"Strength of preference over complementary pairs axiomatizes alpha-MEU preferences","abstract":"Preferences over acts have an α-Maxmin Expected Utility (α-MEU) representation if they can be represented by the α-mixture of the worst and the best expected utility over a set of priors. The case α=1 is the Maxmin Expected Utility (MEU) model characterized in Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). This paper provides the first axiomatic characterization of the α-MEU model in the Anscombe-Aumann framework for all α∈[0,1]﹨{12}. My first axiom is a weakening of Uncertainty Aversion, the second axiom is a strengthening of Obvious Dominance. Both axioms rely on the concept of complementary pairs (Siniscalchi, 2009). I show that the two parameters of the model are uniquely set identified with a one-to-one monotone relationship. The set of α-values that allow a representation have a clear behavioural interpretation and can be elicited from choice data. These results clarify the behavioural implications of the model, which is crucial for decision-theoretic interpretations, applications, and testing/falsification.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Lorenz Hartmann"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105719","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7964bf5612a9e28d","title":"On the impossibility of core-selecting auctions","abstract":"When goods are substitutes, the Vickrey outcome is in the core and yields competitive seller revenue. In contrast, with complements, the Vickrey outcome is efficient but not necessarily in the core and revenue can be low. Non-core outcomes may be perceived as unfair since there are bidders willing to pay more than the winners' payments. Moreover, non-core outcomes render the auction vulnerable to defections, as the seller can attract better offers afterward. To avoid instabilities of this type, Day and Raghavan (2007), Day and Milgrom (2008), and Day and Cramton (2012) have suggested adapting the Vickrey pricing rule so that outcomes are in the core with respect to bidders' reported values. If truthful bidding were an equilibrium of the resulting auction, then the outcome would also be in the core with respect to bidders' true values. We show, however, that when the equilibrium outcome of any auction is in the core, it is equivalent to the Vickrey outcome. In other words, if the Vickrey outcome is not in the core, no core-selecting auction exists. Our results further imply that the competitive equilibrium outcome, which always exists when goods are substitutes, can only be implemented when it coincides with the Vickrey outcome. Finally, for a simple environment, we show that compared to Vickrey prices, the adapted pricing rule yields lower expected efficiency and revenue as well as outcomes that are on average further from the core.","wordCount":235,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Jacob K. Goeree","Yuanchuan Lien"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1198","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-796babed91206906","title":"Multi-stage stochastic optimization framework for power generation system planning integrating hybrid uncertainty modelling","abstract":"In this paper, a multi-stage stochastic optimization (MSO) method is proposed for determining the medium to long term power generation mix under uncertain energy demand, fuel prices (coal, natural gas and oil) and, capital cost of renewable energy technologies. The uncertainty of future demand and capital cost reduction is modelled by means of a scenario tree configuration, whereas the uncertainty of fuel prices is approached through Monte Carlo simulation. Global environmental concerns have rendered essential not only the satisfaction of the energy demand at the least cost but also the mitigation of the environmental impact of the power generation system. As such, renewable energy penetration, CO2,eq mitigation targets, and fuel diversity are imposed through a set of constraints to align the power generation mix in accordance to the sustainability targets. The model is, then, applied to the Indonesian power generation system context and results are derived for three cases: Least Cost option, Policy Compliance option and Green Energy Policy option. The resulting optimum power generation mixes, discounted total cost, carbon emissions and renewable share are discussed for the planning horizon between 2016 and 2030.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Αναστασία Ιωάννου","Gulistiani Fuzuli","Feargal Brennan","Satya Widya Yudha","Andrew Angus"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.02.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-797eee0bae45ca7e","title":"The Effects of High School Peers’ Gender on College Major, College Performance and Income","abstract":"Using a newly constructed longitudinal data set of 30,000 Italian individuals, we analyse whether the gender composition of peers in high school affected their choice of college major and labour market outcomes. To identify causation, we exploit random assignment of classmates within school-cohort. We generally do not find significant effects of peer gender on college choice and following outcomes. Only male students graduating from classes with a very large majority of male peers were more likely to choose ‘prevalently male’ college majors (Economics, Business and Engineering). This impact, however, was undone by major attrition and did not affect labour market outcomes.","wordCount":101,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Massimo Anelli","Giovanni Peri"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12556","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-79856350103695fa","title":"Negative house price co-movements and US recessions","abstract":"We investigate the relation between large negative house price co-movements in the cross-section of US cities and the national business cycle. The occurrences of large negative house price co-movements across cities cluster over time and these clusters are closely linked to [working paper series] recession dates. A simple co-movement measure that aggregates large negative city-level house price returns reliably predicts future recession periods. Weighting cities according to population or GDP when constructing the negative co-movement variable yields the largest forecasting power, indicating that larger cities that contribute more to the national GDP are more influential in terms of correctly signalling future recessions. Moreover, large negative house price co-movements contribute above and beyond traditional recession predictors, suggesting an important role for city-level housing information as an early warning indicator.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Charlotte Christiansen","Jonas N. Eriksen","Stig V. Møller"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.06.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-798ff0bad9b8bcfe","title":"Relational contracts with subjective peer evaluations","abstract":"We study optimal dynamic contracting for a firm with multiple workers where compensation is based on public performance signals and privately reported peer evaluations. We show that if evaluation and effort provision are done by different workers (e.g., consider supervisor‐agent hierarchy), first‐best can be achieved even in a static setting. However, if each worker both exerts effort and reports peer evaluations (e.g., consider team setting), effort incentives cannot be decoupled from truth‐telling incentives. This makes the optimal static contract inefficient. Relational contracts based on public signals increase efficiency. Interestingly, the optimal contract may ignore signals that are informative about effort.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Joyee Deb","Jin Li","Arijit Mukherjee"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12116","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-799cae454ba8812e","title":"The nexus between policy uncertainty, sustainability disclosure and firm performance","abstract":"Policy uncertainty (PU), and sustainability disclosure, influence the performance of the firms. We use European data to extend the nascent literature on sustainability disclosure, and economic policy uncertainty by investigating the moderating impact of sustainability disclosure on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and firm performance. We find overwhelming evidence that policy uncertainty reduces firm performance; however, sustainability disclosure moderates this destructing impact of policy uncertainty on firm performance. Our results show that environmental and social disclosure by the European firms enhances their reputation and help these firms in reducing the policy-induced uncertainty. A higher governance disclosure representing efficient corporate governance also help European firms to moderate the negative effect of policy uncertainty on their performance. Our results are robust to alternate proxies of firm performance as well as endogeneity issues.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Tanveer Ahsan","Muhammad Azeem Qureshi"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1808178","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-799f3acb8c15cb55","title":"Accounting for the new gains from trade liberalization","abstract":"We challenge the conventional wisdom on the variety and productivity gains from trade liberalization which are commonly referred to as “new” gains from trade. In particular, we show that the import variety gains measured in studies such as Broda and Weinstein (2006) are counteracted by exactly analogous domestic variety losses. Similarly, we show that the domestic productivity gains measured in studies such as Trefler (2004) are counteracted by exactly analogous import productivity losses. We then account for all these gains and losses in an application to the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and show that Canada actually experienced net “new” losses from trade.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Chang‐Tai Hsieh","Nicholas Li","Ralph Ossa","Mu-Jeung Yang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103370","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-79a07b650e1b5471","title":"Role Models or Individual Consulting: The Impact of Personalizing Micro-entrepreneurship Training","abstract":"Using a randomized experiment in Chile, we study the impact role models have in the context of a training program for micro–entrepreneurs. We show that being in a group randomly chosen to be visited by a successful alumnus of the program increases household income one year after, mostly due to increased business participation and business income. We also randomized the provision of personalized “consulting sessions” vis–à–vis group sessions, and observe similar effects on income, with the role model intervention being significantly more cost-effective and better suited for less experienced businesses.","wordCount":90,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jeanne Lafortune","Julio Riutort","José Tessada"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170077","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-79abc9b799772174","title":"Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health","abstract":"Most governments in the world, including the U.S., prohibit sex work. Given these types of laws rarely change and are fairly uniform across regions, our knowledge about the impact of decriminalizing sex work is largely conjectural. We exploit the fact that a Rhode Island District Court judge unexpectedly decriminalized indoor sex work to provide causal estimates of the impact of decriminalization on the composition of the sex market, reported rape offences, and sexually transmitted infections. While decriminalization increases the size of the indoor sex market, reported rape offences fall by 30% and female gonorrhoea incidence declines by over 40%.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Scott Cunningham","Manisha Shah"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx065","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-79b008b4fb3a71ad","title":"Insurance and portfolio decisions: Two sides of the same coin?","abstract":"We study insurance and portfolio decisions, two opposite risk retention tradeoffs. Using household level data, we identify the first joint determinants (e.g. subjective expectations, risk attitude) and frictions (e.g. liquidity constraints , financial literacy) in the literature. We also find key differences between the two decisions. Notably, contrary to economic intuition, risky asset holding and insurance coverage both increase with wealth . We show that this apparent puzzle is driven in part by a specific behavioral pattern (the poor invest too conservatively, while the rich over-insure), and can be explained by two factors: regret avoidance and nonperformance risk.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Olivier Armantier","Jérôme Foncel","Nicolas Treich"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.03.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-79d5e68fed32eb2e","title":"Tracking Retail Investor Activity","abstract":"We provide an easy method to identify marketable retail purchases and sales using recent, publicly available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 bps over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalance is attributable to order flow persistence, while the rest cannot be explained by contrarian trading (proxy for liquidity provision) or public news sentiment. There is suggestive, but only suggestive, evidence that retail marketable orders might contain firm‐level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Ekkehart Boehmer","Charles M. Jones","Xiaoyan Zhang","Xinran Zhang","XINRAN ZHANG"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-79df47a47d5d83fa","title":"The iterative deferred acceptance mechanism","abstract":"Lately, there has been an increase in the use of sequential mechanisms, instead of the traditional direct counterparts, in college admissions in many countries, including Germany, Brazil, and China. We describe these mechanisms and identify their shortcomings in terms of incentives and outcome properties. We introduce a new mechanism, which improves upon these shortcomings. Unlike direct mechanisms, which ask students for a full preference ranking over colleges, our mechanism asks students to sequentially make choices or submit partial rankings from sets of colleges. These are used to produce a tentative allocation at each step. If at some point it is determined that a student can no longer be accepted into previous choice, then she is asked to make another choice among colleges that would tentatively accept her. Participants following the simple strategy of choosing the most-preferred college in each step is an ex-post equilibrium that yields the Student-Optimal Stable Matching.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Inácio Bó","Rustamdjan Hakimov"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-79e2551e10f61279","title":"Financial frictions and new exporter dynamics","abstract":"This article studies the role of financial frictions as a barrier to international trade. We study new exporter dynamics to identify how these frictions affect export decisions. We introduce a borrowing constraint and working capital requirements into a standard model of international trade, with exports more working capital intensive than domestic sales. Our model can quantitatively account for new exporter dynamics in contrast to a model with sunk export entry costs. We provide additional evidence in support of our mechanism. We find that financial frictions reduce the impact of trade liberalization, suggesting that they constitute an important trade barrier.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["David Kohn","Fernando Leibovici","Michal Szkup"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12164","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-79e417202d1a6893","title":"Creditors’ Rights and Strategic Default: Evidence from India","abstract":"I examine whether stronger creditors’ rights prevent strategic default. Borrowers who cross either of two thresholds are exempt from a creditor-rights law in India. Using a loan-day-level data set, I find that loan performance is better when the law applies and that outperformance increases after a further rise in creditors’ rights. To discern the strategic motive, I use an unprecedented invalidation of the Indian currency whereby holders of high-value currency were forced to declare their cash holdings to banks. Defaulters exempt from the law showed a greater tendency to repay their loans after invalidation.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Prasanna L. Tantri"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/708161","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-79e7720330966c5f","title":"Family doctor responses to changes in target stringency under financial incentives","abstract":"Healthcare providers may game when faced with targets. We examine how family doctors responded to a temporary but substantial increase in the stringency of targets determining payments for controlling blood pressure amongst younger hypertensive patients. We apply difference-in-differences and bunching techniques to data from electronic health records of 107,148 individuals. Doctors did not alter the volume or composition of lists of their hypertension patients. They did increase treatment intensity, including a 1.2 percentage point increase in prescribing antihypertensive medicines. They also undertook more blood pressure measurements. Multiple testing increased by 1.9 percentage points overall and by 8.8 percentage points when first readings failed more stringent target. Exemption of patients from reported performance increased by 0.8 percentage points. Moreover, the proportion of patients recorded as exactly achieving the more stringent target increased by 3.1 percentage points to 16.6%. Family doctors responded as intended and gamed when set more stringent pay-for-performance targets.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Anna Wilding","Luke Munford","Bruce Guthrie","Evangelos Kontopantelis","Matt Sutton"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102651","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-79ee3656230c79e3","title":"Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle","abstract":"Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers.","wordCount":149,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Ekaterina Jardim","Mark C. Long","Robert D. Plotnick","Emma van Inwegen","Jacob L. Vigdor","Hilary Wething"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180578","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-79fd876b3eed631f","title":"Taxing Hidden Wealth: The Consequences of US Enforcement Initiatives on Evasive Foreign Accounts","abstract":"In 2008, the IRS initiated efforts to curb the use of offshore accounts to evade taxes. This paper uses administrative microdata to examine the impact of enforcement efforts on taxpayers’ reporting of offshore accounts and income. We find that enforcement caused approximately 50,000 individuals to disclose offshore accounts with a combined value of about $100 billion. Most disclosures happened outside offshore voluntary disclosure programs by individuals who never admitted prior noncompliance. Disclosed accounts were concentrated in countries often characterized as tax havens. Enforcement-driven disclosures increased annual reported capital income by $2–$4 billion, corresponding to $0.6–$1.2 billion in additional tax revenue.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Niels Johannesen","Patrick Langetieg","Daniel Reck","Max Risch","Joel Slemrod"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180410","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-7a08ad4b863c3033","title":"Parametric estimation of long memory in factor models","abstract":"A dynamic factor model is proposed in that factor dynamics are driven by stochastic time trends describing arbitrary persistence levels. The proposed model is essentially a long memory factor model, which nests standard I(0) and I(1) behavior smoothly in common factors. In the estimation, principal components analysis (PCA) and conditional sum of squares (CSS) estimations are employed. For the dynamic model parameters, centered normal asymptotics are established at the usual parametric rates, and their small-sample properties are explored via Monte-Carlo experiments. The method is then applied to a panel of U.S. industry realized volatilities.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Yunus Emre Ergemen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.11.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7a12387abbaed5d6","title":"The productivity impacts of energy efficiency programs in developing countries: Evidence from iron and steel firms in China","abstract":"We study the impact of a national energy efficiency program on total factor productivity (TFP) growth in firms in China's iron and steel industry. Using detailed firm-level survey data and multiple approaches to estimate program effects, we find participating firms experienced greater annualized TFP change. Our base specification estimates the program increased annual TFP growth by 3.1 percentage points, implying an annual private benefit of 148.7 million RMB/year per firm, with approximately equal contributions from technical change and scale efficiency change. Our results suggest that firms undervalued energy efficiency investments prior to the start of the program.","wordCount":97,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Massimo Filippini","Thomas Geissmann","Valerie J. Karplus","Da Zhang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101364","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7a1a63c57762fb74","title":"Short-term momentum and reversals, turnover, and a stock’s price-to-52-week-high ratio","abstract":"We show that short-term reversal behavior declines with a stock’s turnover and the prior month’s price-to-52-week-high ratio (PTH), shifting to momentum for stocks with both a relatively high turnover and PTH. This behavior of consecutive one-month individual stock returns is robust to subperiod analysis, risk adjustments, and alternative methodologies. Our findings suggest opposing channels. First, promoting short-term momentum, our evidence implies a PTH-anchoring underreaction to recent news, consistent with the short-term contrarian price-dampening channel of Atmaz et al. (2024) with higher turnover implying a stronger contrarian-induced underreaction. Second, promoting short-term reversals, our evidence reinforces the importance of the well-known liquidity-provision-compensation channel. Reversals are especially strong for low-PTH, low-turnover stocks, where the lower PTH implies a generally smaller-cap, less-liquid stock and the lower turnover implies a weaker contrarian-induced underreaction. We also find that the return behaviors vary with dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts and with market-wide sentiment, in a manner consistent with these channels.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Chen Chen","Chris T. Stivers","Licheng Sun"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101556","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7a1cad663e2a6966","title":"Voluntary Contributions and Collective Redistribution","abstract":"I study a multilateral bargaining game in which committee members invest in a common project prior to redistributing the total value of production. The game corresponds to a Baron and Ferejohn (1989) legislative bargaining model preceded by a production stage that is similar to a voluntary contribution mechanism. In this game, contributions reach almost full efficiency in a random rematching experimental design. Bargaining outcomes tend to follow an equity standard of proportionality: higher contributors obtain higher shares. Unlike other bargaining experiments with an exogenous fund, allocations involving payments to all members are modal instead of minimum winning coalitions, and proposer power is quite low.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Andrzej Baranski"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140240","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7a2624253487a1c0","title":"Sustainable consumption behavior of Europeans: The influence of environmental knowledge and risk perception on environmental concern and behavioral intention","abstract":"This study explores how environmental knowledge and risk perception influence individuals' sustainable consumption behavior through the mediation of environmental concern and behavioral intention. The study combines constructs from earlier studies to form a novel theoretical model, which is tested and validated with an open data set from the Environment III 2010 module, which was collected by the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP). Our sample consists of respondents from nine countries (N = 11,675) in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The model indicates that environmental risk perception and environmental knowledge impact environmental concern significantly. Furthermore, environmental concern strongly influences behavioral intention, and these constructs, in turn, act as mediators of sustainable consumption behavior. The findings indicate that in Europe, sustainable consumption behavior can be associated with environmental concern, which is influenced by increased levels of environmental knowledge and environmental risk perception. The results provide a basis for future analyses once the Environment IV module is released. This will be of particular importance for tracking possible changes in the sustainable consumption behavior of Europeans when transitioning to a green and circular economy that is driven by the European Green Deal and EU Circular Economy Action Plan.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Ulla A. Saari","Svenja Damberg","Lena Frömbling","Christian M. Ringle"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107155","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7a2f6a3c9f71a745","title":"The Effects of the Massachusetts Health Reform on Household Financial Distress","abstract":"In this paper, we examine the effect of a major health care reform in Massachusetts on a broad set of financial outcomes using credit report data. We exploit variation in the impact of the reform across counties and age groups using pre-reform insurance coverage as a measure of the potential effect of the reform. We find that the reform reduced the amount of debt that was past due, improved credit scores, reduced personal bankruptcies and reduced third-party collections. Our results show that health care reform has implications that extend well beyond the health of those who gain insurance coverage.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Bhashkar Mazumder","Sarah Miller"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7a311fd3970a3970","title":"Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4–26.0% and delayed motherhood by 2 years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions, and still births and contains information on the time of conception. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Anna Adamecz-Völgyi","Ágota Scharle"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00771-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7a36537f795335eb","title":"Ten striking facts about agricultural input use in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"Conventional wisdom holds that Sub-Saharan African farmers use few modern inputs despite the fact that most poverty-reducing agricultural growth in the region is expected to come largely from expanded use of inputs that embody improved technologies, particularly improved seed, fertilizers and other agro-chemicals, machinery, and irrigation. Yet following several years of high food prices, concerted policy efforts to intensify fertilizer and hybrid seed use, and increased public and private investment in agriculture, how low is modern input use in Africa really? This article revisits Africa’s agricultural input landscape, exploiting the unique, recently collected, nationally representative, agriculturally intensive, and cross-country comparable Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) covering six countries in the region (Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda). Using data from over 22,000 households and 62,000 agricultural plots, we offer ten potentially surprising facts about modern input use in Africa today.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Megan Sheahan","Christopher B. Barrett"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7a43658f941c498a","title":"The behavioral additionality of government research grants","abstract":"There are different forms of public support for industrial R&D. Some attempt to increase innovation by prompting firms to undertake more challenging projects than they otherwise would. Access to a dataset from one such program, the Austrian Research Promotion Agency, allows me to examine the effect of research grants on firms' patenting outcomes. My estimates suggest that a government research [grant] the propensity to file a patent application with the European Patent Office by around 12 percentage points. Stronger effects appear for more experienced firms of advanced age. Additional evidence indicates that grants induce experienced firms to develop unconventional patents and patents that draw on knowledge novel to the firm. I interpret the findings in a “exploration vs. exploitation” model, in which grants are targeted at ambitious projects that face internal competition from more conventional projects within firms. The model shows that this mechanism is more salient in experienced firms, leading to a stronger response in behavior for this group of firms.","wordCount":162,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Rainer Widmann"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.103045","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7a597e5c2d809127","title":"Long-Run Effects of Forced Resettlement: Evidence from Apartheid South Africa","abstract":"In an attempt to divide and marginalize the black population, the apartheid regime forcefully relocated some 3.5 million South Africans to rural homelands between 1960 and 1980. This event, considered one of history’s largest social engineering exercises, created overcrowded and economically deprived communities of displaced people. This article uses geo-coded data to explore the long-term effects of removals on current measures of social capital. Comparing people within the same homeland, I show that those living close to former resettlement camps have higher levels of trust towards members of their social network, people in general, and members of other ethnic groups. These findings are important, as solidarity among suppressed people is believed to be a critical factor in explaining the demise of the apartheid regime.","wordCount":124,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Martin Abel"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000512","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7a5aff868b4cbdea","title":"Aggregation and design of information in asset markets with adverse selection","abstract":"How effectively does a decentralized marketplace aggregate information that is dispersed throughout the economy? We study this question in a dynamic setting where sellers have private information that is correlated with an unobservable aggregate state. In any equilibrium, each seller's trading behavior provides an informative and conditionally independent signal about the aggregate state. We ask whether the state is revealed as the number of informed traders grows large. Surprisingly, the answer is no; we provide conditions under which information aggregation necessarily fails. In another region of the parameter space, aggregating and non-aggregating equilibria coexist. We solve for the optimal information policy of a social planner who observes trading behavior. We show that non-aggregating equilibria are always constrained inefficient. The optimal information policy Pareto improves upon the laissez-faire outcome by concealing information about trading volume when it is sufficiently high.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Vladimir Asriyan","William Fuchs","Brett Green"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105124","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7aa1579e90e25514","title":"Can a poverty-reducing and progressive tax and transfer system hurt the poor?","abstract":"To analyze anti-poverty policies in tandem with the taxes used to pay for them, comparisons of poverty before and after taxes and transfers are often used. We show that these comparisons, as well as measures of horizontal equity and progressivity, can fail to capture an important aspect: that a substantial proportion of the poor are made poorer (or non-poor made poor) by the tax and transfer system. We illustrate with data from seventeen developing countries: in fifteen, the fiscal system is poverty-reducing and progressive, but in ten of these at least one-quarter of the poor pay more in taxes than they receive in transfers. We call this fiscal impoverishment, and axiomatically derive a measure of its extent. An analogous measure of fiscal gains of the poor is also derived, and we show that changes in the poverty gap can be decomposed into our axiomatic measures of fiscal impoverishment and gains.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Sean Higgins","Nora Lustig"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.04.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7abd0aa005a25351","title":"A tractable model of monetary exchange with ex post heterogeneity","abstract":"We construct a continuous-time, New-Monetarist economy with general preferences that displays an endogenous, non-degenerate distribution of money holdings. Properties of equilibria are obtained analytically and equilibria are solved in closed form in a variety of cases. We study policy as incentive-compatible transfers financed with money creation. Lump-sum transfers are welfare-enhancing when labor productivity is low, but regressive transfers achieve higher welfare when labor productivity is high. We introduce illiquid government bonds and draw implications for the existence of liquidity-trap equilibria and policy mix in terms of \\\\\"helicopter drops\\\\\" and open-market operations.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Guillaume Rocheteau","Pierre-Olivier Weill","Tsz-Nga Wong"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2821","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-7ac2ead4d075fcc9","title":"Rescuing state capacity: Proceduralism, the new politicization, and public policy","abstract":"The administrative capacity of a government matters enormously to public policy design and implementation. But it is usually taken for granted in public policy settings, a background variable left largely unconsidered. This essay argues that the fields of public policy and public management need to more directly consider threats to state capacity. A creeping threat is a tendency towards proceduralism that layers in rules, veto points, and delay that constrains state actors from achieving critical goals. A more immediate threat for the American administrative state is a dramatic increase in the politicization of public service delivery. This new model of politicization pursued by President Trump features three key attributes: 1) a personalist infrastructure of presidential power that centers on loyalty above all other values; 2) governing by fear via conspiratorial messaging towards the public sector and threatening individual public servants; and 3) a weakening of civil service protections that blurs the traditional distinction between political appointees and civil servants and enables purges of those deemed to be disloyal.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Donald P. Moynihan"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22673","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ad142a30e1b0ebe","title":"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations","abstract":"We summarize the estimates from over 200 recent studies of active labor market programs. We classify the estimates by type of program and participant group, and distinguish between three different post-program time horizons. Using regression models for the estimated program effect (for studies that model the probability of employment) and for the sign and significance of the estimated effect (for all the studies in our sample) we conclude that: (1) average impacts are close to zero in the short run, but become more positive 2–3 years after completion of the program; (2) the time profile of impacts varies by type of program, with larger average gains for programs that emphasize human capital accumulation; (3) there is systematic heterogeneity across participant groups, with larger impacts for females and participants who enter from long term unemployment; (4) active labor market programs are more likely to show positive impacts in a recession.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["David Card","Jochen Kluve","Andrea Weber"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7adc1d8da4a00cbe","title":"A model of energy poverty and access: Estimating household electricity demand and appliance ownership","abstract":"In countries that have a large share of population in energy poverty, appliance and electricity demand can be expected to rise. Approaches to estimate latent demand of energy poor populations often assume a constant income elasticity of demand. Here, we develop a novel simulation-based structural estimation approach to estimate responsiveness of electricity demand to income accounting for non-linearities, and considering other important drivers. We apply the model using micro-data for four developing nations to assess the implications of policy scenarios for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal SDG 7 under different socio-economic futures. We find that under scenarios that include policies to achieve universal access to electricity, total electricity demand is higher but the average per capita is lower than in no access policy futures. We also find that the level of adoption of electrical appliances varies significantly by country, appliance type, climate and income, with a high and stable share of electricity used for entertainment in all four countries and socio-economic futures. However, the share of electricity used for food preservation and preparation and clothes maintenance rises significantly with income as people are able to afford appliances that provide greater convenience. Our results confirm that as energy poor populations gain access to electricity services their demand will rise, but neglecting heterogeneity can result in biased estimates.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Miguel Poblete-Cazenave","Shonali Pachauri"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105266","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ae8c1ce4dac722c","title":"Colonial Legacy, State-building and the Salience of Ethnicity in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"African colonial history suggests that British colonial rule may have undermined state centralisation due to legacies of ethnic segregation and stronger executive constraints. Using micro-data from anglophone and francophone countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we find that anglophone citizens are less likely to identify themselves in national terms (relative to ethnic terms). To address endogeneity concerns, we utilise regression discontinuity by focusing on observations near anglophone–francophone borders, both across countries and within Cameroon. Evidence on taxation, security and the power of chiefs also suggests weaker state capacity in anglophone countries. These results highlight the legacy of colonial rule on state-building.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Merima Ali","Odd‐Helge Fjeldstad","Boqian Jiang","Abdulaziz B. Shifa"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12595","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-7aeec338277aa654","title":"Coordination with communication under oath","abstract":"We focus on the design of an institutional device aimed to foster coordination through communication. We explore whether the social psychology theory of commitment, implemented via a truth-telling oath, can reduce coordination failure. Using a classic coordination game, we ask all players to sign voluntarily a truth-telling oath before playing the game with cheap talk communication. Three results emerge with commitment under oath: (1) coordination increased by nearly 50%; (2) senders’ messages were significantly more truthful and actions more efficient, and (3) receivers’ trust of messages increased.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Nicolas Jacquemet","Stéphane Luchini","Jason F. Shogren","Adam Zylbersztejn"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9508-x","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-7afabca26ec2c579","title":"Nonlinear factor models for network and panel data","abstract":"Factor structures or interactive effects are convenient devices to incorporate latent variables in panel data models. We consider fixed effect estimation of nonlinear panel single-index models with factor structures in the unobservables, which include logit, probit, ordered probit and Poisson specifications. We establish that fixed effect estimators of model parameters and average partial effects have normal distributions when the two dimensions of the panel grow large, but might suffer from incidental parameter bias. We also show how models with factor structures can be applied to capture important features of network data such as reciprocity, degree heterogeneity, homophily in latent variables, and clustering. We illustrate this applicability with an empirical example to the estimation of a gravity equation of international trade between countries using a Poisson model with multiple factors.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Mingli Chen","Iván Fernández‐Val","Martin Weidner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","R","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7afcd01f95dfafb8","title":"The impact of packaging and messaging on adherence to malaria treatment: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda","abstract":"Despite substantial public and private costs of non-adherence to infectious disease treatments, patients often do not finish their medication. We explore adherence to medication for malaria, a major cause of morbidity and health system costs in Africa. We conducted a randomized trial in Uganda testing specialized packaging and messaging, designed to increase antimalarial adherence. We find that stickers with short, targeted messages on the packaging increase adherence by 9% and reduce untaken pills by 29%. However, the currently used method of boosting adherence through costly, specialized packaging with pictorial instructions had no significant impacts relative to the standard control package. We develop a theoretical framework of the adherence decision, highlighting the role of symptoms, beliefs about being cured, and beliefs about drug effectiveness to help interpret our results. Patients whose symptoms resolve sooner are substantially less likely to adhere, and the sticker interventions have the strongest impact among these patients.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Jessica Cohen","Indrani Saran"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.04.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b1ca9397b36b214","title":"How Important is Parental Education for Child Nutrition?","abstract":"Existing evidence on the impacts of parental education on child nutrition is plagued by both internal and external validity concerns. In this paper we try to address these concerns through a novel econometric analysis of 376,992 preschool children from 56 developing countries. We compare a naïve least square model to specifications that include cluster fixed effects and cohort-based educational rankings to reduce biases from omitted variables before gauging sensitivity to sub-samples and exploring potential explanations of education-nutrition linkages. We find that the estimated nutritional returns to parental education are: (a) substantially reduced in models that include fixed effects and cohort rankings; (b) larger for mothers than for fathers; (c) generally increasing, and minimal for primary education; (d) increasing with household wealth; (e) larger in countries/regions with higher burdens of undernutrition; (f) larger in countries/regions with higher schooling quality; and (g) highly variable across country sub-samples. These results imply substantial uncertainty and variability in the returns to education, but results from the more stringent models imply that even the achievement of very ambitious education targets would only lead to modest reductions in stunting rates in high-burden countries. We speculate that education might have more impact on the nutritional status of the next generation if school curricula focused on directly improving health and nutritional knowledge of future parents.","wordCount":216,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Harold Alderman","Derek Headey"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b20dfb3add51b73","title":"Unequal growth","abstract":"Over the past 50 years, households in the United States have experienced changes in earnings dynamics that have resulted in a large increase in inequality. This paper assesses the impact of these changes on aggregate growth and welfare. We begin by inspecting a simple statistical decomposition of aggregate earnings growth using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the period 1967–2018. The decomposition expresses aggregate earnings growth as the sum of two terms. The first is the covariance between the level and growth of household earnings, which depends only on micro earnings dynamics. The second is the average growth across households, which depends on both micro and macro factors, such as a common labor productivity growth. In order to identify the impact of the changes in the micro dynamics on aggregate outcomes, we map a simple model of micro-founded growth onto the terms of the decomposition. We find that changes in households’ earnings dynamics that are consistent with the micro data imply unequal growth across the earnings distribution that is, a transition period during which there is a change in the shape of the distribution of incomes that is not mean preserving, so that aggregate growth is affected. This change yields a positive effect on aggregate growth and, with incomplete markets, an ex-ante negative welfare effect.","wordCount":218,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Francesco Lippi","Fabrizio Perri"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.12.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7b26560fbc14a261","title":"Modelling circular time series","abstract":"Circular variables often play an important role in the construction of models for analysing and forecasting the consequences of climate change and its impact on the environment. Such variables pose special problems for time series modelling. This article shows how the score-driven approach, developed primarily in econometrics, provides a natural solution to the difficulties and leads to a coherent and unified methodology for estimation, model selection and testing. The new methods are illustrated with data on wind direction.","wordCount":78,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Andrew Harvey","Stan Hurn","Dario Palumbo","Stephen Thiele"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.02.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b37c0a614f6f7cb","title":"The impact of climate vulnerability on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance","abstract":"This article presents the first systematic investigation of the effects of climate-related vulnerability on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance and sheds light on a hitherto under-appreciated cost of climate change for climate vulnerable developing economies. We first show theoretically how climate vulnerability could affect firms’ cost of capital and access to finance. Apart from a possible impact on cost of debt and equity, which drive cost of capital, firms in countries with high exposure to climate risk might be more financially constrained. The latter results in low levels of debt relative to total assets or equity due to restricted access to finance. We then examine this issue empirically, using panel data of 15,265 firms in 71 countries over the period 1999–2017. We invoke panel data regressions and structural equation models, with firm-level data from the Thomson Reuters Eikon database and different measures of climate vulnerability based on the ND-GAIN climate vulnerability index. We construct a new climate vulnerability index and use panel instrumental variable regressions to address endogeneity problems. Our empirical findings suggest that climate vulnerability increases cost of debt directly and indirectly through its impact on restricting access to finance. However, we find limited evidence that climate vulnerability affects cost of equity. Our estimations suggest that the direct effect of climate vulnerability on the average increase in cost of debt from 1991 to 2017 has been 0.63%. In addition, the indirect effect through climate vulnerability’s impact on financial leverage has contributed an additional 0.05%.","wordCount":248,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Gerhard Kling","Ulrich Volz","Victor Murinde","Sibel Ayas"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105131","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b3cad2b1533c5b3","title":"Linking friction, social coordination and the speed of evolution","abstract":"We consider a model of social coordination and network formation where agents decide on an action in a coordination game and on whom to form costly links with. We explore the role of linking friction, where an agent cannot change all of her links simultaneously when choosing an alternative linking decision. Given linking friction, interaction structures are not fully flexible. We introduce a new solution concept of static equilibria, local Nash equilibria, and find that the set of local Nash equilibria may include action-heterogenous strategy profiles. Furthermore, risk-dominant strategy profiles are stochastically stable when linking friction is restrictive, and payoff-dominant strategy profiles are stochastically stable when linking friction becomes less restrictive. More importantly, linking friction can greatly accelerate the emergence of payoff-dominant strategy profiles.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Zhiwei Cui"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.04.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b3f7c44bd1af656","title":"Union wage effects in Sweden: Evidence from the interwar period","abstract":"In this paper, I use a new plant-level dataset to investigate the relationship between wages and the regional strength of unions. Using a shift-share or ’Bartik’ instrumental variables approach, I disentangle the causal effect of union strength on wage levels. I find statistically significant and economically substantial, heterogeneous union wage effects for men with the bottom of the distribution of plants being impacted by union density and the top two-thirds being unaffected. I find a statistically weaker negative effect on wages for women and argue that unions, in general, were uninterested in the issues of women. The paper contributes to the literature by providing the only evidence of a union wage effect in Sweden and, the earliest identified union wage effect anywhere—highlighting the importance of unions in shaping labor market outcomes in the early 20th century and showing that union wage effects are products of their historical and institutional context.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["William Skoglund"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101655","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b3fbf3d6a07c120","title":"Financing Constraints, Radical versus Incremental Innovation, and Aggregate Productivity","abstract":"I provide new empirical evidence on the negative relationship between financial frictions and productivity growth over a firm’s life cycle. I show that a model of firm dynamics with incremental innovation cannot explain this evidence. However, further including radical innovation, which is very risky but potentially very productive, allows for the joint replication of several stylized facts about the dynamics of young and old firms and the differences in productivity growth in industries with different degrees of financing frictions. These frictions matter because they act as a barrier to entry that reduces competition and the risk-taking of young firms.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Andrea Caggese"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160298","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7b588230c38c4df8","title":"How renewable energy reduces CO<sub>2</sub> emissions? Decoupling and decomposition analysis for 25 countries along the Belt and Road","abstract":"To explore how renewable energy reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, this study decomposes the impacts of renewable energy on CO2 emissions by employing the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM), based on panel data of 25 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for the period 2005–2019. Also, we explore their decoupling relationships. The results indicate that: (1) The numbers of countries with an ideal strong decoupling state reach the highest point during 2010 and 2015. (2) The growth in renewable energy scale is the key driving force responsible for promoting CO2 emissions in most countries along the BRI, while the main factor inhibiting CO2 emissions is the carbon intensity of renewable energy. (3) The carbon mitigation effect of the increase in the proportion of renewable energy is considerably higher than that of technological improvements from renewables, and it will promote the transformation of the relationship between renewable energy and carbon emissions into a more ideal strong decoupling relationship. (4) The effect of carbon efficiency on emission is not significant at this stage, but it will be much more important in the future.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Jianda Wang","Xiucheng Dong","Kangyin Dong"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1904126","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7b65867d402e2122","title":"Optimal Development Policies With Financial Frictions","abstract":"Is there a role for governments in emerging countries to accelerate economic development by intervening in product and factor markets? To address this question, we study optimal dynamic Ramsey policies in a standard growth model with financial frictions. The optimal policy intervention involves pro-business policies like suppressed wages in early stages of the transition, resulting in higher entrepreneurial profits and faster wealth accumulation. This, in turn, relaxes borrowing constraints in the future, leading to higher labor productivity and wages. In the long run, optimal policy reverses sign and becomes pro-worker. In a multi-sector extension, optimal policy subsidizes sectors with a latent comparative advantage and, under certain circumstances, involves a depreciated real exchange rate. Our results provide an efficiency rationale, but also identify caveats, for many of the development policies actively pursued by dynamic emerging economies.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Oleg Itskhoki","Benjamin Moll"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13761","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7b68c085a932a40a","title":"Recent Developments at DG Competition: 2018/2019","abstract":"The Directorate General for Competition at the European Commission enforces competition law in the areas of antitrust, merger control, and state aids. This year’s article provides first a general presentation of the role of the Chief Competition Economist’s team and surveys some of the main achievements of the Directorate General for Competition over 2018/2019. The article then reviews the Siemens/Alstom merger, the Google Android case, as well as two state aid cases that related to a public service compensation for obligations that involved press delivery in France and Italy.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Rossitza Kotzeva","David Kovo","Szabolcs Lőrincz","Geza Sapi","Lluís Saurí","Tommaso Valletti"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09739-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b699f2c585ac49e","title":"Are Referees and Editors in Economics Gender Neutral?","abstract":"We study the role of gender in the evaluation of economic research using submissions to four leading journals. We find that referee gender has no effect on the relative assessment of female- versus male-authored papers, suggesting that any differential biases of male referees are negligible. To determine whether referees as a whole impose different standards for female authors, we compare citations for female- and male-authored papers, holding constant referee evaluations and other characteristics. We find that female-authored papers receive about 25% more citations than observably similar male-authored papers. Editors largely follow the referees, resulting in a 1.7 percentage point lower probability of a revise and resubmit verdict for papers with female authors relative to a citation-maximizing benchmark. In their desk rejection decisions, editors treat female authors more favorably, though they still impose a higher bar than would be implied by citation maximization. We find no differences in the informativeness of female versus male referees or in the weight that editors place on the recommendations of female versus male referees. We also find no differences in editorial delays for female- versus male-authored papers.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David Card","Stefano DellaVigna","Patricia Funk","Nagore Iriberri"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz035","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7b6bd67c14eebe84","title":"Trade Costs, CO<sub>2</sub>, and the Environment","abstract":"This paper quantifies how international trade affects CO 2 emissions and analyzes the welfare consequences of regulating the CO 2 emissions from shipping. To this end, the paper describes a model of trade and the environment, compiles new data on the CO 2 emissions from shipping, and estimates key parameters using panel data regressions. Results show that the benefits of international trade exceed trade's environmental costs due to CO 2 emissions by two orders of magnitude. While proposed regional carbon taxes on the CO 2 emissions from shipping would increase global welfare and increase the implementing region's GDP, they would also harm poor countries.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Joseph Shapiro"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150168","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7b74f46d89f83765","title":"Common ownership and innovation efficiency","abstract":"How does common ownership affect innovation? We study this question using project-level data on pharmaceutical startups and their venture capital (VC) investors. We find that common ownership leads VCs to hold back projects, withhold funding, and redirect innovation at lagging startups. Effects are stronger where R&D costs are larger, consistent with common owners aiming to cut duplicate costs. Effects are also stronger where technological similarity is greater and preexisting competition is lower, consistent with common owners seeking market power for their surviving projects. Overall, common VC ownership appears to generate social benefits, via improved innovation efficiency, but also social costs.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Xuelin Li","Tong Liu","Lucian A. Taylor"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.12.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b792e4cdda6e162","title":"The type of power capacity matters for economic development – Evidence from a global panel","abstract":"We examine the relationship between different types of power investments and regional economic dynamics. We construct a novel panel dataset combining data on regional GDP and power capacity additions for different technologies between 1960 and 2015, which covers 65% of the global power capacity that has been installed in this period. We use an event study design to identify the effect of power capacity addition on GDP per capita, exploiting the fact that the exact amount of power capacity coming online each year is determined by random construction delays. We find evidence that GDP per capita increases by 0.2% in the 6 years around the coming online of 100 MW coal-fired power capacity. We find similar effects for hydropower capacity, but not for any other type of power capacity. The positive effects are regionally bounded and stronger for projects on new sites (green-field). The magnitude of this effect might not be comparable to the total external costs of building new coal-fired power capacity, yet our results help to explain why policymakers favor coal investments for spurring regional growth.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Lorenzo Montrone","Jan Christoph Steckel","Matthias Kalkuhl"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101313","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7b8c2fd7f3864a71","title":"Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility","abstract":"The US Great Recession featured a large decline in output and labor, tighter financial conditions, and a large increase in firm growth dispersion. We build a model in which increased volatility at the firm level generates a downturn and worsened credit conditions. The key idea is that hiring inputs is risky because financial frictions limit firms’ ability to insure against shocks. An increase in volatility induces firms to reduce their inputs to reduce such risk. Our model can generate most of the decline in output and labor in the Great Recession and the observed increase in firms’ interest rate spreads.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Cristina Arellano","Yan Bai","Patrick J. Kehoe"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701792","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7b9f960f32081cd2","title":"JUE Insight: Distributional Impacts of Retail Vaccine Availability","abstract":"We examine the potential for exploiting retailer location choice in targeting health interventions. Using geospatial data, we quantify proximity to vaccines created by a U.S. federal program distributing COVID-19 vaccines to commercial retail pharmacies. We assess the distributional impacts of a proposal to provide vaccines at Dollar General, a low-priced general merchandise retailer. Adding Dollar General to the federal program would substantially decrease the distance to vaccine sites for low-income, rural, and minority U.S. households, groups for which COVID-19 vaccine take-up has been disproportionately slow.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Judith A. Chevalier","Jason L. Schwartz","Yihua Su","Kevin Williams"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103382","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7ba0c509af25ce3d","title":"Asset life, leverage, and debt maturity matching","abstract":"Capital ages and must eventually be replaced. We propose a theory of financing in which firms borrow to finance investment and deleverage as capital ages to have enough financial slack to finance replacement investments. To achieve these dynamics, firms issue debt with a maturity that matches the useful life of assets and a repayment schedule that reflects the need to free up debt capacity as capital ages. In the model, leverage and debt maturity are negatively related to capital age while debt maturity and the length of debt cycles are positively related to asset life. We provide empirical evidence that strongly supports these predictions.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Thomas Geelen","Jakub Hajda","Erwan Morellec","Adam Winegar"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103796","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ba74811da784d0f","title":"Domestic violence perception and gender stereotypes","abstract":"Using a survey of more than 4500 Italian women, we address the link between gender stereotypes and perceptions of domestic violence. We define a new measure of stereotypes at the individual level and show that women with stronger stereotypes are less likely to state that violence is common in their area of residence and are more likely to classify physical violence as less severe than privacy breaches. This ranking is associated with a victim-blaming mindset among respondents with stronger stereotypes, who are also more likely to attribute violent behaviors to event-specific circumstances (e.g., economic distress) than to personal characteristics of abusers (e.g., psychological issues) and to advise a hypothetical victim not to react to violence.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Veronica Grembi","Anna Rosso","Emilia Barili"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-00986-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7bb0764c07bd1b1a","title":"Reconciling global aspirations and local realities: Challenges facing the Sustainable Development Goals for water and sanitation","abstract":"The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is ambitious and inclusive, but how well are these global aspirations likely to result in implementable policy change for water and sanitation? This article assesses governance challenges at the local level associated with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, which pledges to ensure sustainable water and sanitation for all. The majority of developing countries manage services at the subnational level, making the quality of local governance the key ingredient for improvements in the sector. This article first reviews prior shortcomings in global monitoring efforts and how SDG 6 was formulated to address them. The analysis then examines local governance challenges facing SDG 6 and potential barriers to implementation. These barriers manifest as both contradictions within SDG 6 itself as well as contradictions between SDG 6 and the Sustainable Development Agenda more broadly. As SDG monitoring rubrics undergo further reformulations, it may be necessary to prioritize between goals and targets, or otherwise stagger the timing of their promotion and implementation.","wordCount":164,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Veronica Herrera"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.02.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7bb932677b25af28","title":"Connections Matter: How Interactive Peers Affect Students in Online College Courses","abstract":"Peers affect individual's productivity in the workforce, in education, and in other team‐based tasks. Using large‐scale language data from an online college course, we measure the impacts of peer interactions on student learning outcomes and persistence. In our setting, students are quasi‐randomly assigned to peers, and as such, we are able to overcome selection biases stemming from endogenous peer grouping. We also mitigate reflection bias by utilizing rich student interaction data. We find that females and older students are more likely to engage in student interactions. Students are also more likely to interact with peers of the same gender and with peers from roughly the same geographic region. For students who are relatively less likely to be engaged in online discussion, exposure to more interactive peers increases their probabilities of passing the course, improves their grade in the course, and increases their likelihood of enrolling in the following academic term. This study demonstrates how the use of large‐scale, text‐based data can provide insights into students’ learning processes.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Eric Bettinger","Jing Liu","Susanna Loeb"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21932","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7bbfb8ee7f9f69fb","title":"Wage discrimination in the <scp>NBA</scp>: Evidence using free agent signings","abstract":"This article takes a step toward understanding potential causes of wage discrimination in an economy highly dependent on the service industry. Traditionally categorized within the service industry, professional sport leagues such as the National Basketball Association (NBA) provides a unique setting to examine the potential impact of race on salary. We analyze free agency contract signings, which allow us to better capture the determinants of players' wages, from 2011 to 2017 to investigate the prominence of wage discrimination in the NBA. Using weighted linear regression models and the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, we find that Black athletes are paid significantly less than their counterparts. In addition, we also identify the presence of consumer discrimination after controlling the exposure of a player to the audience, which is observed through the interaction term between the share of MSA population which is White and an identifier for whether a player is Black.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Candon Johnson","Eduardo Minuci"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Z","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12461","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7bc31ca1ce2d8a80","title":"The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity","abstract":"Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Nicole Maestas","Kathleen J. Mullen","David Powell"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190196","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7bca43c3a080ff0f","title":"Do labor markets discipline? Evidence from RMBS bankers","abstract":"This paper examines whether employees involved in residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS) securitization experienced internal and external labor market consequences relative to similar non-RMBS employees in the same banks and why. Senior RMBS bankers experienced similar levels of job retention, promotion, and external job opportunities. Even signers of RMBS deals with high loss and misreporting rates or deals implicated in lawsuits experienced no adverse internal or external labor market outcomes. These findings are likely not explained by targeted or delayed employee discipline, small legal fines, or protection due to pending litigation but are consistent with implicit upper-management approval of RMBS activities.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["John M. Griffin","Samuel Kruger","Gonzalo Maturana"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.11.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7bcfbb917fae8bf9","title":"Less and more: Conceptualising degrowth transformations","abstract":"While the notion of degrowth has gained traction in recent times, scholarship on degrowth transformations has yet to provide a conceptualisation that captures key attributes of what such transformations entail: (1) the reduction of some items and the expansion of others and (2) profound changes in various dimensions of social being, including in how humans interact with nature, non-humans, and one another, changes in social structures and changes in how we are as human beings. The present paper develops a comprehensive and non-reductionist conceptualisation of degrowth, understanding it to involve deep transformations on four interrelated planes of social being: material transactions with nature, social interactions between persons, social structure, and people's inner being. On each plane, these transformations consist in reducing, and ultimately absenting, some currently existing items while expanding others. The paper considers the implications of the conceptualisation for degrowth practice and theorising, focusing on top-down eco-social policies, bottom-up initiatives and self-transformation. It is found that degrowth would benefit from considering more seriously the effects of policies and initiatives across all four planes and from acknowledging diversity on each plane. Moreover, it is concluded that more attention should be paid to the plane of peoples' inner being.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Hubert Buch‐Hansen","Iana Nesterova"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107731","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7bd2729383a9b31b","title":"The labor market returns to “first-in-family” university graduates","abstract":"We examine how first-in-family (FiF) graduates — those whose parents do not have university degrees — fare in the labor market in England. We find that among women, FiF graduates earn 7.4% less on average than graduates whose parents have a university degree. For men, we do not find a FiF wage penalty. A decomposition of the wage difference between FiF and non-FiF graduates reveals two interesting findings. First, two-thirds of the female FiF penalty is explained by certain characteristics, including having lower educational attainment, not attending an elite university, selecting particular degree courses, working in smaller firms, working in jobs that do not require their degree, and motherhood. Second, FiF graduate men also differ in their endowments from non-FiF graduate men; however, FiF men earn higher returns on their endowments than non-FiF men and thus compensate for their relative social disadvantage, while FiF women do not. We also estimate the returns to graduation for potential FiF and non-FiF young people. We find that the wage returns to graduation are not lower among FiF graduates compared to those who match their parents with a degree.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Anna Adamecz-Völgyi","Morag Henderson","Nikki Shure"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00908-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7bed2e7ba56bfbb1","title":"Agricultural composition and labor productivity","abstract":"Labor productivity differences between developing and developed countries are much larger in agriculture than in non-agriculture. We show that differences in agricultural composition across countries explain a substantial part of these labor productivity differences. To this end, we group agricultural products into two sectors: capital-intensive and labor-intensive agriculture. As the economy develops and capital accumulates, the price of labor-intensive agricultural goods relative to capital-intensive agricultural goods increases. This price change drives a process of structural change that moves land and farmers to the capital-intensive sector, increasing labor productivity in agriculture. We illustrate this mechanism using a multisector growth model that generates transitional dynamics consistent with patterns of structural change observed in Brazil and also differences in agricultural composition and labor productivity consistent with cross-country data.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Cesar Blanco","Xavier Raurich"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102934","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7bf30f7a33c413d5","title":"Effects of EU Regional Policy: 1989-2013","abstract":"We analyze EU Regional Policy during four programming periods: 1989-1993, 1994-1999, 2000-2006, 2007-2013. When looking at all periods, we focus on the growth, employment and investment effects of Objective 1 treatment status. For the two later periods, we additionally look at the effects of the volume of EU transfers, overall and in sub-categories, on various outcomes. We also analyze whether the concentration of payments across spending categories affects the effectiveness if EU transfers. Finally, we pay attention to the role of EU funding for UK regions given the current debate in the UK. \\n","wordCount":94,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Sascha O. Becker","Peter Egger","Maximilian von Ehrlich"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7c0db35c04df63b1","title":"Investigator racial diversity and clinical trial participation","abstract":"We investigate whether increased racial diversity of clinical trial principal investigators could increase the enrollment of Black patients, which currently lags population and disease-burden. We conducted a survey experiment in which respondents were shown a photo of a current NIH investigator in which race (Black/White) was randomized. Sex was also randomized as a relevant benchmark. Black respondents reported 0.35 standard deviation units higher interest in participating in a clinical study led by a race concordant investigator (a 12.6% increase). Sex concordance had no effect. Further analyses indicate that perceived trustworthiness and attractiveness are the most important factors explaining these results.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Marcella Alsan","Romaine Campbell","Lukas Leister","Ayotomiwa Ojo"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.102968","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7c13b98ba822213a","title":"Semiparametric identification in panel data discrete response models","abstract":"This paper studies semiparametric identification in linear index discrete response panel data models with fixed effects. Departing from the classic binary response static panel data model, this paper examines identification in the binary response dynamic panel data model and the ordered response static panel data model. It is shown that under mild distributional assumptions on the fixed effect and the time-varying unobservables point-identification fails, but informative bounds on the regression coefficients can still be derived. Partial identification is achieved by eliminating the fixed effect and discovering features of the distribution of the unobservable time-varying components that do not depend on the unobserved heterogeneity. Numerical analyses illustrate how the identification bounds change as the support of the explanatory variables varies.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Eleni Aristodemou"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7c41433251af0ace","title":"Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99","abstract":"Early modern warfare in Western Europe exposed civilian populations to violence, hardship, and disease. Despite limited empirical evidence, the ensuing mortality effects are regularly invoked by economic historians to explain patterns of economic development. Using newly collected data on adult burials and war events in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, we estimate early modern war-driven mortality in localities close to military activity. We find a clear and significant general mortality effect consistent with the localized presence of diseases. During years with major epidemic disease outbreaks, we demonstrate a stronger and more widely spreading mortality effect. However, war-driven mortality increases during epidemic years are of similar relative magnitude is those in non-epidemic war years. Given the omnipresence of warfare in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, war-driven mortality was remarkably constant rather than a sharp discontinuity. The economic impact of warfare likely played out over the long term rather than driven by sudden large mortality spikes creating rapid structural change.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Bram van Besouw","Daniel R. Curtis"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101425","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7c4a2427481d9a41","title":"Time consistency and time invariance in collective intertemporal choice","abstract":"Recent work on collective intertemporal choice suggests that non-dictatorial social preferences are generically time inconsistent. We argue that this claim conflates time consistency with two distinct properties of preferences: stationarity and time invariance. While time invariance and stationarity together imply time consistency, the converse does not hold. Although non-dictatorial social preferences cannot be stationary, they may be time consistent if time invariance is abandoned. If individuals are discounted utilitarians, revealed preference provides no guidance on whether social preferences should be time consistent or time invariant. Nevertheless, we argue that time invariant social preferences are often normatively and descriptively problematic.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Antony Millner","Geoffrey Heal"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7c542559877d35cf","title":"Capital destruction, jobless recoveries, and the discipline device role of unemployment","abstract":"I consider an economy growing along the balanced growth path that is hit by an adverse shock to its capital accumulation process. The model integrates efficiency wages due to imperfect monitoring of the quality of labor in a search and matching framework with methods of dynamic general equilibrium analysis. I show that, depending on the firms' abilities to assess workers' performance, the discipline device role of unemployment may account for sharp declines in employment and jobless recoveries driven by exceptional increases in the work effort of employees. The model also explains why rigid real wages may prevail in equilibrium: the large movements in unemployment are indeed associated with real wage rigidity, which is generated endogenously by efficiency wages.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Marianna Riggi"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001280","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7c62d14ea571e02e","title":"Wage Inequality in Germany after the Minimum Wage Introduction","abstract":"Monthly wage inequality in Germany continued to increase in the early 2000s, which is mainly explained by a rising part-time employment share. After 2010, inequality returned to the level of 2000. About half of the recent decrease is due to the introduction of the national minimum wage in 2015. While employment effects of the minimum wage are negligible, we find strong wage increases among the existing workforce. The minimum wage lowered wage inequality within eastern and western Germany but also led to a convergence of the east-west wage differential. The increased labor incomes were not offset by decreasing social benefits.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Mario Bossler","Thorsten Schänk"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720391","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-7c6a5dc9a6012f67","title":"Hospital competition in a national health service: Evidence from a patient choice reform","abstract":"We study the impact of exposing hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS) to non-price competition by exploiting a patient choice reform in Norway in 2001. The reform facilitates a difference-in-difference approach due to plausibly exogenous (geographical) variation in pre-reform market structure. Employing rich, administrative data, covering the universe of hospital admissions from 1998 to 2005, we estimate models with hospital and treatment (DRG) fixed-effects and use only emergency admissions to limit patient selection issues. The results show that hospitals in more competitive areas have a sharper reduction in AMI mortality but no effect on stroke mortality. We also find that exposure to competition reduces all-cause mortality, shortens length of stay, but increases readmissions, though the effects are small in magnitude. In years with high (DRG) prices, the negative effect on readmissions almost vanishes. Finally, exposure to competition tends to reduce waiting times and increase admissions, but the effects must be interpreted with care as the outcomes include elective treatments.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Kurt Richard Brekke","Chiara Canta","Luigi Siciliani","Odd Rune Straume"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102509","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7c6adab9e0529a12","title":"Economic or political uncertainty in early life reduces later tolerance","abstract":"Strong democratic traditions neutralize uncertainty’s long-run effect on tolerance. This study examines whether exposure to economic-political uncertainty during formative years has enduring effects on tolerance. To quantify uncertainty, we use the World Uncertainty Index, a text-based measure of the frequency of the term “uncertain” in the country report of the Economist Intelligence Unit. We link its mean value during six age intervals to later-in-life tolerance toward gays and lesbians, using data from the European Social Survey. Employing a quasi-experimental design, we document a robust negative relationship: more uncertainty during formative years predicts diminished tolerance in adulthood. This effect appears most clearly during middle childhood (ages 6–12) and the transition to adulthood (ages 18–25). Exposure after 25 almost never has an impact. The main result is moderated by democratic quality. In countries with robust democratic traditions, procedural legitimacy and participatory socialization seem to undo the negative impact of uncertainty. These findings demonstrate that uncertainty has long-term negative cultural consequences, but also that democratic institutions foster resilience.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Niclas Berggren","Andreas Bergh","Therese Nilsson"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.01.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7c6c4b12c240bcf1","title":"Banking across borders with heterogeneous banks","abstract":"This paper develops a model of banking across borders where banks differ in their efficiencies. Operating abroad allows the most efficient banks that have a large enough scale to overcome the associated fixed costs to increase their leverage, size and profits even more. Banking globalization increases welfare because these banks, by maximizing the return on loans and minimizing funding costs, improve the allocation of capital by channeling capital across borders. At the same time, global banking sector efficiency increases because the least efficient banks exit. Foreign exposures data for German banks deliver new model-derived stylized facts. In particular, the average efficiency of banks that operate abroad is lower for host countries that have a less efficient banking sector, are larger and feature lower impediments to foreign bank entry.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Friederike Niepmann"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103748","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7c72d7ae681d8a5d","title":"China’s Anticorruption Campaign and Entrepreneurship","abstract":"This paper investigates the causal effect of corruption on entrepreneurship. We use staggered anticorruption investigations in China as exogenous shocks to conduct difference-in-differences estimation and find that the country’s anticorruption campaign has a sizeable positive effect on entrepreneurship, especially in urban areas, areas with high levels of trust, and areas with short verdict processes after investigation. We discuss four plausible mechanisms for the positive effect of the anticorruption campaign: reduced rent seeking, improved government quality, technology spillover from innovation, and the easing of financial constraints for non-state-owned enterprises. Our results are robust to a battery of tests based on different specifications and alternative measures. Overall, this study provides a timely evaluation of the importance of anticorruption efforts in a typical emerging market.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Dongmin Kong","Ni Qin"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711313","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7c7c5cbc508e8e74","title":"Rethinking fiscal rules","abstract":"The Covid 19 pandemic has caused both a decrease in tax revenues and an increase in public spending, forcing governments to increase fiscal deficits to unprecedented levels. Given these circumstances, it is foreseeable that fiscal rules will play a predominant role in the design of many countries' recovery policies. We develop a general equilibrium, overlapping generations model for a small, open economy in order to study the impact of several fiscal rules upon welfare, public expenditures and growth. We calibrate the model to the Peruvian economy. In this economy, fiscal rules have been widely used and, unlike in other Latin American countries, they have been relatively successful. We find that fiscal rules will generate better results in terms of output if, in addition to maintaining control over the fiscal result, they also preserve public investment. We also find that the performance of economies that implement structural rules tends to be better than the performance of economies that implement rules based on realized budget balance.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Luis Carranza-Ugarte","Julián Dı́az-Saavedra","José E. Galdón-Sánchez"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.02.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7c7cf52f827020a2","title":"Adoption of agricultural technology in the developing world: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature","abstract":"Agricultural technologies have long been promoted by governments and development organizations as effective ways to increase farm productivity and reduce poverty. However, adoption of many seemingly beneficial technologies remains low. Empirical adoption studies attempt to identify the motivation for adoption based on differences in characteristics between adopters and non-adopters. This study investigates variables that regularly explain adoption across technologies and contexts using a meta-analysis of 367 regression models from the published literature. We find that, on average, farmer education, household size, land size, access to credit, land tenure, access to extension services, and organization membership positively correlate with the adoption of many agricultural technologies. Technologies in the categories of improved varieties and chemical inputs are adopted more readily on larger farms, which casts doubt on the scale-neutrality of these technologies. Agricultural credit can positively influence adoption, but researchers should measure whether farmers are credit constrained, rather than simply whether or not they have access to credit. While extension services may substitute for education in the case of improved varieties, the two variables appear to be complementary for natural resource management technologies. Land tenure can encourage adoption of natural resource management techniques, and we find it to be most influential in the adoption of technologies with long planning horizons, such as erosion control methods. Unsurprisingly, although some patterns are identified when results are averaged, most adoption determinants vary widely by technology, cultural context, and geography. Based on these observations, we provide some recommendations for adoption researchers and policy makers, but, given the variability of the results, conclude that efforts to promote agricultural technologies in the developing world must be adapted to suit local agricultural and cultural contexts.","wordCount":276,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Sacha Ruzzante","Ricardo Labarta","Amy M. Bilton"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105599","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7c82a486102e4cab","title":"How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture","abstract":"To meet the 2 °C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items. We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1–3%.","wordCount":247,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["David Bryngelsson","Stefan Wirsenius","Fredrik Hedenus","Ulf Sonesson"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.12.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7c90bd76a0368fea","title":"A clean, green haven?—Examining the relationship between clean energy, clean and dirty cryptocurrencies","abstract":"Is clean energy a safe haven for cryptocurrencies, or vice versa? In this paper, we investigate the hedge and safe haven property of a wide range of clean energy indices against two distinct types of cryptocurrencies based on their energy consumption levels, termed “dirty” and “clean”. Statistical evidence shows that clean energy is not a direct hedge for either of types. However, it serves as at least a weak safe haven for both in extreme bearish markets. Moreover, clean energy is more likely to be a safe haven for dirty cryptocurrencies than clean cryptocurrencies during increased uncertainty. We further study the spillover patterns among clean energy, cryptocurrency, stock, and gold markets. Weak connectedness is found between clean energy and cryptocurrencies which implies the potential use of clean energy as a hedge and diversification tool for cryptocurrencies in the future.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Boru Ren","Brian M. Lucey"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105951","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7cac79bc554647bd","title":"Machine learning and fund characteristics help to select mutual funds with positive alpha","abstract":"Machine-learning methods exploit fund characteristics to select tradable long-only portfolios of mutual funds that earn significant out-of-sample annual alphas of 2.4% net of all costs. The methods unveil interactions in the relation between fund characteristics and future performance. For instance, past performance is a particularly strong predictor of future performance for more active funds. Machine learning identifies managers whose skill is not sufficiently offset by diseconomies of scale, consistent with informational frictions preventing investors from identifying the outperforming funds. Our findings demonstrate that investors can benefit from active management, but only if they have access to sophisticated prediction methods.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Victor DeMiguel","Javier Gil‐Bazo","Francisco J. Nogales","André Alves Portela Santos"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103737","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7cc06d240840ba85","title":"How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm-Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts on SMEs and Aggregate Implications for Industry Concentration","abstract":"We construct nationally representative firm-level longitudinal data for European countries using financial statements from the Orbis database. We validate our data by comparing its coverage and firm size distribution to official statistics. We showcase two applications to show the importance of firm representativeness in understanding macroeconomic outcomes. First, we show that small and medium-sized firms account for a large share of aggregate economic activity. Second, we document that firm representativeness is important for calculating industry concentration trends over time as the share of economic activity accounted by top firms in an industry changes with the firm samples used.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan","Bent E. Sørensen","Carolina Villegas‐Sánchez","Vadym Volosovych","Sevcan Yeşiltaş"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220036","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-7cc7e8148ee49735","title":"Pooling and winsorizing machine learning forecasts to predict stock returns with high-dimensional data","abstract":"We evaluate US market return predictability using a novel data set of several hundred ag- gregated firm-level characteristics. We apply LASSO, Elastic Net, Random Forest, Neural Net, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine methods and find these models experience large prediction errors that lead to forecast failures. However, winsorizing and pooling machine learning model forecasts provides consistent out-of-sample predictability. To assess robustness, we apply machine learning methods to high-dimensional data for Canada, China, Germany and the UK as well as the Goyal-Welch data. All machine learning models we consider, except for the ensemble pooled methods, fail to significantly predict returns across our samples, highlighting the importance of pooling, evaluating additional economies, and the fragility of individual machine learning methods. Our results sheds light on the sparsity versus density debate as the degree of sparsity and variable importance evolves over time.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Erik Mekelburg","Jack Strauss"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101538","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7cc9dca5f6929940","title":"Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market Institutions","abstract":"We propose a simple model to assess the evolution of the US labor share and how automation affects employment. In our model, heterogeneous firms may choose a manual technology and hire a worker subject to matching frictions. Alternatively, they may choose an automated technology and produce using only machines (robots). Our model suggests that automation reduces the labor share but increases employment and wages. Furthermore, our model suggests that labor market institutions are unlikely to have played a major role in the fall of the US labor share after 1987. Instead, technological factors are a more promising candidate.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Luís Guimarães","Pedro Mazeda Gil"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102146","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ccba4cbd438e547","title":"Cost and affordability of nutritious diets at retail prices: Evidence from 177 countries","abstract":"Many policies and programs aim to bring nutritious diets within reach of the poor. This paper uses retail prices and nutrient composition for 671 foods and beverages to compute the daily cost of essential nutrients required for an active and healthy life in 177 countries around the world. We compare this minimum cost of nutrient adequacy with the subsistence cost of dietary energy and per-capita spending on all goods and services, to identify stylized facts about how diet cost and affordability relate to economic development and nutrition outcomes. On average, the most affordable nutrient adequate diet exceeds the cost of adequate energy by a factor of 2.66, costing US$1.35 per day to meet median requirements of healthy adult women in 2011. Affordability is lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. The sensitivity of diet costs to each requirement reveals the high cost of staying within acceptable macronutrient ranges, particularly the upper limit for carbohydrates. Among micronutrients, total diet costs are most sensitive to requirements for calcium as well as vitamins A, C, E, B12, folate and riboflavin. On average, about 5% of dietary energy in the least-cost nutrient adequate diets is derived from animal source foods, with small quantities of meat and fish. Over 70% of all animal products in least-cost diets is eggs and dairy, but only in upper-middle and high-income countries. In lower income countries where egg and dairy prices are significantly higher, they are replaced by larger volumes of vegetal foods. When controlling for national income, diet costs are most significantly correlated with rural travel times and rural electrification. These data suggest opportunities for targeted policies and programs that reduce market prices and the cost of nutritious diets, while improving affordability through nutrition assistance, safety nets and higher earnings among low-income households.","wordCount":292,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Yan Bai","Robel Alemu","Steven Block","Derek Headey","William A. Masters"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101983","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ce50051306a2ea3","title":"Girls’ Night In? Effects of the Kenyan COVID-19 Lockdown on Web Browsing","abstract":"We present the first objective evidence on how COVID-19 lockdowns affected internet browser usage in Africa: We use detailed digital trace data on PC-based and mobile-based browsing patterns of 316 Kenyans who had access to a PC. Our data cover the period before and during Kenya’s first national COVID-19 curfew, which was declared on March 25, 2020. We find that total daily browser usage increased by 41 minutes, or 15 percent of average browsing time, after the curfew started. We find no significant differences in total browsing time during the curfew by gender or by residence in high-speed versus low-speed broadband access areas. However, we do find gender differences in the content of browsing. Women’s time on YouTube and Netflix exceeded men’s from the start of our sample period, and the gender gap in Netflix browsing increased by 36 minutes daily, which corresponds to almost twice the average daily Netflix time in the sample. Men’s browsing became less concentrated during the curfew, across both domains and topics– but women’s did not. The degree of overlap in browsing between men and women also increased: This was likely due to men visiting sites that were previously exclusively visited by women. Across the entire sample, browsing of Kenyan domains dropped significantly relative to that of non-Kenyan domains, which indicates greater reliance on international content during this period of economic and social upheaval.","wordCount":229,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Soledad Giardili","Sanjay Jain","Amalia R. Miller","Kamalini Ramdas","Alp Sungu"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10015-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ce9c73b6930162d","title":"The anatomy of costs and firm performance: Evidence from Belgium","abstract":"We separately observe variable input expenditure and expenditure on fixed inputs in novel firm-level data covering the Belgian manufacturing sector over the last decades. This permits a deeper investigation of two potential drivers of the globally observed widening gap between firms’ revenue and variable input expenditure: technology and market power. Across the board, cost structures have become less reliant on variable input expenditure over time, while expenditure on fixed inputs or overhead costs has increased in prominence. We relate these changes in firms’ cost structures to performance measures and document that markups and gross profit rates increase substantially as the role of variable costs in production diminishes. Profit rates net of fixed input expenditure also increase, but by substantially less than gross profit rates. Our results suggest that technological change can explain a considerable portion of the widening gap between revenue and variable input expenditure, but that markups increase by more than necessary to break even, and that this phenomenon operates remarkably similarly across different firms and industries.","wordCount":168,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jan De Loecker","Catherine Fuss","Nathan Quiller-Doust","Leonard Treuren"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","C","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103264","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7d0206f904b01b9f","title":"Risk Preferences, Time Preferences, and Smoking Behavior","abstract":"There is a rich theoretical literature in economics which models habit‐forming behaviors, of which addiction is the exemplar, but there is a paucity of experimental economic studies eliciting and comparing the preferences that economic theory suggests may differ between addicts and nonaddicts. We evaluate an incentive‐compatible risk and time preference experiment conducted on a sample of student smokers and nonsmokers at the University of Cape Town in 2012. We adopt a full information maximum likelihood statistical framework, which is consistent with the data generating processes proposed by structural theories and accounts for subject errors in decision making, to explore the relationship between risk preferences, time preferences, and addiction. Across different theories and econometric specifications, we find no differences in the risk preferences of smokers and nonsmokers but do find that smokers discount significantly more heavily than nonsmokers. We also identify a nonlinear effect of smoking intensity on discounting behavior and find that smoking intensity increases the likelihood of discounting hyperbolically, which means heavier smokers may be more prone to time inconsistency and more recalcitrant to treatment. These results highlight the importance of the theory‐experimental design‐econometric trinity and have important implications for theories of addiction.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Glenn W. Harrison","Andre Hofmeyr","Don Ross","J. Todd Swarthout"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12275","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7d06c25de22b105b","title":"The global interests of London's commercial community, 1599–1625: investment in the East India Company","abstract":"The foundation of the East India Company coincided with a dramatic expansion of England's overseas activities brought about through new trading, colonial, and exploratory ventures. This period has received considerable attention in relation to the development of the British Empire, but little is known about how merchants and other commercial actors invested in and contributed to these organizations. Using a newly developed dataset of membership and investment in overseas activities, this article reconstructs the individual portfolios of East India Company members in 1599, 1613, and 1624. This analysis reveals that investors took advantage of opportunities across the globe, and diverse portfolios were common. The implications of this are two‐fold. First, this article makes clear that our current understanding of the East India Company as closely connected with the Levant Company is not sustained with evidence from investment patterns. Second, the interests of London's commercial community suggest new avenues for understanding the early British Empire as a tightly connected, globally focused set of institutions, people, and networks.","wordCount":166,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Edmond Smith"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12665","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-7d10f14a86c6d1f5","title":"Bid Takers or Market Makers? The Effect of Auctioneers on Auction Outcome","abstract":"Auction design has been studied extensively; however, within a given design, does the process of how an auction is conducted matter as well? We address this question by looking for heterogeneity in the performance of auctioneers in English auctions. We analyze over 850,000 wholesale used car auctions and find significant differences across auctioneers in outcomes for otherwise similar cars. The performance heterogeneities are stable across time and correlate with subjective evaluations by the auction house. We discuss the mechanisms driving differential performance and find evidence suggesting a role for tactics that generate bidder excitement or urgency.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Nicola Lacetera","Bradley Larsen","Devin G. Pope","Justin Sydnor"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7d12131729a4f446","title":"Financing Constraints and Workplace Safety","abstract":"We present evidence that financing frictions adversely impact investment in workplace safety, with implications for worker welfare and firm value. Using several identification strategies, we find that injury rates increase with leverage and negative cash flow shocks, and decrease with positive cash flow shocks. We show that firm value decreases substantially with injury rates. Our findings suggest that investment in worker safety is an economically important margin on which firms respond to financing constraints.","wordCount":74,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Jonathan B. Cohn","Malcolm Wardlaw"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12430","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7d1639d695e77e1e","title":"UK investment trust portfolio strategies before the First World War","abstract":"UK investment trust companies were at the forefront of financial innovation during the so‐called first globalization era before the First World War. This study examines their portfolio strategies in detail, using a unique dataset of 115 portfolio observations for 30 different investment trust companies, comprising a total of 32,708 portfolio holdings. Our results reveal strong performance and relatively sophisticated asset management, which was based on a mixture of a buy‐and‐hold investment strategy and active portfolio management. Investment trusts employed global rather than domestic diversification. The early predominant investment in bonds in the 1880s gradually declined in favour of ordinary and preferred shares. North and Latin American markets were the main geographical target of UK investment trusts, with less appetite for domestic investments and negligible interest in continental European financial securities. There is significant cross‐sectional variation in asset allocation between investment trusts; they thus avoided herding behaviour in portfolio choice and developed a wide range of different portfolio strategies.","wordCount":158,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos","Janette Rutterford","Carolyn Keber"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12994","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7d235f7383f4f3fa","title":"Jobs, Crime and Votes: A Short‐run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany","abstract":"Millions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with over one million arriving in Germany alone. Yet little is known about the impact of this inflow on labour markets, crime and voting behaviour. This paper uses administrative data on asylum seeker allocation and provides an evaluation of the short‐run consequences of the refugee inflow. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that a scramble for accommodation determined the assignment of asylum seekers to German counties, resulting in exogenous variation in the number of asylum seekers per county within and across states. Our estimates suggest that those migrants have not displaced native workers but have themselves struggled to find gainful employment. We find moderate increases in crime, and our analysis further indicates that while at the macro level increased migration was accompanied by increased support for anti‐immigrant parties, exposure to asylum seekers at the micro level had a small negative effect.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Markus Gehrsitz","Martin Ungerer"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12420","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7d2a8e6dbe268aef","title":"Does the low-carbon pilot cities policy make a difference to the carbon intensity reduction?","abstract":"The low-carbon pilot cities policy (LCPCP) aims to stimulate economic growth and ensure the attainment of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets to address climate change. China issued the LCPCP in 2010 and steadily expanded the size of its pilot zones. This study builds a quasi-natural experiment based on China's LCPCP and a difference-in-difference model employing urban carbon intensity data over a 10-year period beginning in 2007 to examine the implementation repercussions of the LCPCP. According to the findings, the LCPCP has significantly reduced the carbon intensity of pilot cities. Additionally, an analysis of heterogeneity suggests that the LCPCP is more prevalent in regions with higher concentrations of secondary industries. Moreover, the mechanism reveals that the decarbonization program reduces carbon intensity through technological innovation, particularly in eastern China. In conclusion, our findings provide strong support for the operation and promotion of China's LCPCP as well as guidance and support for China's goal of reducing carbon emissions.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Yi‐Shuai Ren","Pei-Zhi Liu","Tony Klein","Lisa Sheenan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.10.032","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-7d45d93de372029f","title":"Is response time predictive of choice? An experimental study of threshold strategies","abstract":"This paper investigates the usefulness of non-choice data, namely response times, as a predictor of threshold behavior in a simple global game experiment. Our results indicate that the signals associated to the highest or second highest response time at the beginning of the experiment are both unbiased estimates of the threshold employed by subjects at the end of the experiment. This predictive ability is lost when we move to the third or higher response times. Moreover, the response time predictions are better than the equilibrium predictions of the game. They are also robust, in the sense that they characterize behavior in an “out-of-treatment” exercise where we use the strategy method to elicit thresholds.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Andrew Schotter","Isabel Trevino"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09651-1","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7d461c4414694262","title":"Alternative Assumptions to Identify LATE in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs","abstract":"There exist two alternative assumptions to identify local average treatment effects (LATE) in fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs: local independence (LI) and local smoothness (LS). Together with the usual LATE assumptions requiring existence of a first‐stage and treatment monotonicity, either of these two assumptions is sufficient to identify RD LATE. I discuss the practical (and testable) implications of these alternative assumptions, and show that weakening LI by LS might be empirically relevant. However, when LI does hold, there are some practical implications one may explore. Numerical and empirical examples are briefly presented.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Yingying Dong"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12249","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7d5170d1dd38bfc5","title":"Definitions of the circular economy: Circularity matters","abstract":"With more than 4,000 research articles in 2022 the Circular Economy is clearly a topic that meets academic interest. With resource use at an all-time, unsustainable peak it is also a topic that raises great expectations: We need the circular economy. The great hopes that we all have are further fueled by the definitions of the circular economy that we find in the literature. Put colloquially, many of these definitions depict the circular economy as a “jack of all trades”. Some definitions include waste management while others are even synonymous with sustainable development. Attempts to summarize existing definitions into one result in definitions that blur the lines between the circular economy and other concepts even further. To empower the circular use of resources we need to understand what the circular economy really is and how it relates to related concepts. The role of definitions is to draw rather than blur lines. This is where many definitions fail. In our short article “Definitions of the Circular Economy: Circularity Matters”, we develop some conditions that good definitions must meet. By way of example, we apply these conditions to a popular definition that we found in the literature and we identify some of the shortcomings of existing definitions. We develop four conditions that we believe good definitions of the circular economy must meet. Good definitions of the circular economy must (1) refer to closing resource loops, (2) mention optimizing rather than minimizing resource flows, (3) consider at least two levels, and (4) distinguish between the circular economy as a perfect ideal type and a realistic imperfect circular economy that delivers sustainability in combination with other approaches. In this short paper, we propose a definition that meets all four conditions. We see the definition we propose neither as the start nor as the end of the discussion on how to define the circular economy. We see it as a mid-way point and as an invitation to researchers to join a discussion that we believe is necessary to leverage the potential that the circular economy can have for the sustainable development of all.","wordCount":348,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Frank Figge","Andrea Thorpe","Melissa Gutberlet"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107823","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7d5e5cdc7882580d","title":"Does weak enforcement deter tax progressivity?","abstract":"In contexts with weak enforcement, the threat of tax evasion may constrain policy makers’ power to set tax policies optimally. This paper studies whether stricter tax enforcement affects the tax schedule set by local governments. I take advantage of an Italian policy that generated cross-municipality variation in the scope for tackling income and property tax evasion through stricter tax enforcement. Combining an event-study design with municipality-level panel data on statutory tax rates, I show that stricter tax enforcement tips the balance in favor of higher marginal tax rates for middle and top incomes, while the poor benefit of a lower marginal tax rate. The tax hike is larger in places with higher pre-program inequality and where intrinsic tax compliance attitudes are weaker. As a result of higher tax revenue, municipalities hire more workers and raise public spending. These results suggest that tax enforcement policies have not only the power to foster tax capacity, but also to enhance the ability to pursue redistributive policies.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Enrico Rubolino"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104833","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7d6aab240272d40b","title":"Same‐sex marriage laws, LGBT hate crimes, and employment discrimination charges","abstract":"The impact of same‐sex marriage laws on the victimization of sexual minorities has not received much attention in the literature. Using state‐level panel data within a difference‐in‐differences framework, I examine how the legalization of same‐sex marriage affects hate crimes. The results show that same‐sex marriage laws decrease sexual orientation‐motivated hate crimes, with stronger effects on gay men. This is consistent with the laws increasing tolerance toward and acceptance of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender individuals, further supported by complementary analysis from Google Trends data. This is also the first study to examine the effects of marriage equality on allegations of employment discrimination due to sexual orientation based on information from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The findings support that marriage equality laws have an additional beneficial effect: the laws not only decrease hate crimes, but they also decrease the incidence of employment discrimination (at worst, the laws do not affect discriminatory practices).","wordCount":153,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Dimitrios Nikolaou"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12548","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7d71f40c5ee67ac9","title":"JUE Insight: Making it home? Evidence on the long-run impact of an intensive support program for the chronically homeless on housing, employment and health","abstract":"Interventions that combine unconditional permanent housing with support services, known as Housing First approaches, generally improve housing outcomes for people who have experienced chronic homelessness. However, little is known about their long-run outcomes or the consequences of ending such services. We investigate both aspects by examining the long-run effects of an intensive support program on the housing, employment, and health outcomes of chronically homeless people in Australia. Evaluating the three-year program over six-years using a randomised controlled trial , we document substantially higher rates of housing and better employment outcomes during the program period for the treated group, but no substantial changes in health. Three years after the program ends, we observe no significant differences between the treatment and control group with respect to any outcomes, including housing. Our results imply that stable housing is a necessary but not sufficient condition to overcome multiple sources of economic and social disadvantage.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Daniel Kuehnle","Guy Johnson","Yi‐Ping Tseng"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103511","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7da8694eb306316d","title":"State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data","abstract":"Using census microdata on multistate firms and their organizational forms, we estimate the impact of state taxes on business activity. For C corporations, employment and the number of establishments have short-run corporate tax elasticities of −0.4 to −0.5 and do not vary with changes in personal tax rates. Pass-through entity activities show tax elasticities of −0.2 to −0.4 with respect to personal tax rates and are invariant with respect to corporate tax rates. Capital shows similar patterns. Reallocation of productive resources to other states drives around half the effect. The responses are strongest for firms in tradable and footloose industries.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Xavier Giroud","Joshua Rauh"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701357","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7dabaddd637fe3c0","title":"Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation","abstract":"Applied econometricians frequently apply the inverse hyperbolic sine (or arcsinh) transformation to a variable because it approximates the natural logarithm of that variable and allows retaining zero‐valued observations. We provide derivations of elasticities in common applications of the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation and show empirically that the difference in elasticities driven by ad hoc transformations can be substantial. We conclude by offering practical guidance for applied researchers.","wordCount":67,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Marc F. Bellemare","Casey J. Wichman"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12325","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7dae124ffdb16065","title":"Gender, Assets, and Agricultural Development: Lessons from Eight Projects","abstract":"Ownership of assets is important for poverty reduction, and women's control of assets is associated with positive development outcomes at the household and individual levels. This research was undertaken to provide guidance for agricultural development programs on how to incorporate gender and assets in the design, implementation, and evaluation of interventions. This paper synthesizes the findings of eight mixed-method evaluations of the impacts of agricultural development projects on individual and household assets in seven countries in Africa and South Asia. The results show that assets both affect and are affected by projects, indicating that it is both feasible and important to consider assets in the design, implementation, and evaluation of projects. All projects were associated with increases in asset levels and other benefits at the household level; however, only four projects documented significant, positive impacts on women's ownership or control of some types of assets relative to a control group, and of those only one project provided evidence of a reduction in the gender asset gap. The quantitative and qualitative findings suggest ways that greater attention to gender and assets by researchers and development implementers could improve outcomes for women in future projects.","wordCount":193,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Nancy L. Johnson","Chiara Kovarik","Ruth Meinzen‐Dick","Jemimah Njuki","Agnes Quisumbing"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.01.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7db5f65218db472c","title":"Can existing corporate finance theories explain security offerings during the COVID-19 pandemic?","abstract":"We document substantial increases in corporate security offerings during the COVID pandemic. While the increase in seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) can be attributed to shifts in macroeconomic conditions, increases in convertible and straight bond offerings cannot be explained by standard security choice determinants. We furthermore find that COVID-period SEO announcements are often contaminated with Research and Development (R&D)-related news, with the SEO proceeds more likely to be hoarded as cash. Overall, COVID-period SEOs align with market timing behavior, but the increase in COVID-period convertibles and straight bonds cannot be reconciled with pre-pandemic corporate financing rationales or government interventions. We furthermore demonstrate that the COVID pandemic differs substantially from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in terms of security offering choices and announcement returns.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Marie Dutordoir","Joshua Shemesh","Chris Veld","Qīng Wáng"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101558","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7dbaf3c8c95d07df","title":"On the power of the conditional likelihood ratio and related tests for weak-instrument robust inference","abstract":"Power curves of the Conditional Likelihood Ratio (CLR) and related tests for testing H0:β=β0 in linear models with a single endogenous variable, y=xβ+u, estimated using potentially weak instrumental variables have been presented for two different designs. One design keeps the variance matrix of the structural and first-stage errors, Σ, constant, the other instead keeps the variance matrix of the reduced-form and first-stage errors, Ω, constant. The values of Σ govern the endogeneity features of the model. The fixed-Ω design changes these endogeneity features with changing values of β in a way that makes it less suitable for an analysis of the behaviour of the tests in low to moderate endogeneity settings, or when β and the correlation of the structural and first-stage errors, ρuv, have the same sign. At larger values of |β|, the fixed-Ω design implicitly selects values for Σ where the power of the CLR test is high. We further show that the Likelihood Ratio statistic is identical to the t0(βˆL)2 statistic as proposed by Mills et al. (2014), where βˆL is the Liml estimator. In fixed-Σ design Monte Carlo simulations, we find that Liml- and Fuller-based conditional Wald tests and the Fuller-based conditional t02 test are more powerful than the CLR test when the degree of endogeneity is low to moderate. The conditional Wald tests are further the most powerful of these tests when β and ρuv have the same sign. We show that in the fixed-Ω design, setting β0=0 and the diagonal elements of Ω equal to 1 is not without loss of generality, unlike in the fixed-Σ design.","wordCount":263,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Nicolas Van De Sijpe","Frank Windmeijer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.02.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7dd608c26c2071ca","title":"Reprint of: Platform competition in the tablet PC market: The effect of application quality","abstract":"The tablet PC market is dominated by two platforms: iOS and Android. In this paper, we combine tablet-level data with data on the quality of the top 1000 mobile applications from these platforms and estimate a structural demand model. We exploit variations over three periods and five European countries to find whether the application quality affects tablet demand. We then run two counterfactuals. The first counterfactual suggests that an improvement in application quality benefits the tablet producers on that platform with a more pronounced effect on the demand for Android-based tablets. The second counterfactual discusses the policy of leveling the app quality of the two stores. It shows that such a policy favors the tablet producers adopting the lowest quality app store (Google) and stimulates the adoption of tablet PCs. This generates consumer surplus in tablet demand.","wordCount":137,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Thanh Doan","Fabio M. Manenti","Franco Mariuzzo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102989","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7dd7e7a5bad3fd61","title":"Dynamic return and volatility connectedness for dominant agricultural commodity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic era","abstract":"This paper explores the dynamic return and volatility connectedness for the three most relevant agricultural and livestock commodity indexes (Softs, Grains and Livestock) and a media sentiment index as the Coronavirus Media Coverage Index (MCI). To that purpose, we apply the fresh time-varying parameter vector autoregression methodology during the sample period between 1 January 2020 and 30 April 2021, that is, covering the three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Interesting results are found in this research. First, dynamic total return and volatility connectedness fluctuate over time, reaching a peak during both the first and the third waves of the global pandemic crisis. Second, in the dynamic connectedness TO the system, we observe significant differences between markets at the level of the return connectedness measure. However, in the dynamic volatility connectedness TO, there are very few differences between some elements of the system. The Coronavirus MCI appears as the less relevant receiver FROM the system, not only in terms of dynamic return connectedness but also in volatility. Finally, regarding the net dynamic total connectedness, the Coronavirus MCI shows the highest values in return and volatility, during most of the sample period analysed.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Zaghum Umar","Francisco Jareño","Ana Escribano"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1973949","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7ddd35e52e7d1f52","title":"Unemployment and Health Behaviors over the Business Cycle: A Longitudinal View","abstract":"We examine the first‐order internal effects of unemployment and nonemployment on a range of health behaviors during the most recent recession using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth‐1979. Ours is the first study to analyze the effect of own‐unemployment on energy intake, energy expenditure, and the net effect (body mass index) using longitudinal records. Exploiting information enveloping the recent steep recession and prolonged recovery is valuable since recent job losers will modify their behavior little if they expect soon to be re‐employed, whereas if they expect joblessness to last, they will adjust to a possibly prolonged decline in income and increase in nonwork time. We find that becoming unemployed is associated with a small increase in leisure‐time exercise, a moderate decrease in smoking, and a substantial decline in total physical activity. We also find that unemployment and nonemployment are associated with a decline in purchases of fast food. Together, these results imply that both energy consumption and expenditure may decline in the United States during recessions, the net result being essentially no change in body weight. There is considerable heterogeneity in these effects across specific health behaviors, across the intensive and extensive margins, across the outcome distribution, and across gender.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Gregory Colman","Dhaval Dave"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12283","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7dfabc32506b6503","title":"Growth and welfare effects of macroprudential regulation","abstract":"This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of macroprudential regulation in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with banking and agency costs. Indivisible investment projects combine with informational imperfections to create a double moral hazard problem à la Holmström–Tirole and a role for bank monitoring. When the optimal monitoring intensity is endogenously determined, an increase in the required reserve ratio (motivated by systemic risk considerations) has conflicting effects on investment and growth. On one hand, requiring banks to put away a fraction of the deposits that they receive reduces the supply of loanable funds. On the other, a higher required ratio raises incentives to save and mitigates banks' incentives to monitor, thereby lowering monitoring costs and freeing up resources to increase lending. In addition, it may mitigate the systemic risk externality associated with excessive leverage. This trade-off can be internalized by choosing the required reserve ratio that maximizes growth and welfare. However, the risk of disintermediation means that in practice financial supervision may also need to be strengthened, and the perimeter of regulation broadened, if the optimal ratio is relatively high.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Pierre‐Richard Agénor"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517001080","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-7e04f1cd4b1a0a0c","title":"Social comparison and energy conservation in a collective action context: A field experiment","abstract":"This field experiment quantifies the impact of social norm information on the demand for indoor temperature. Based on high-frequency data from indoor temperature monitors, we provide participating households with a comparison of average temperature in their apartment relative to that measured in a control group. For more than 90 percent of participants, financial benefits of energy savings are only indirect, as building-level heating costs are shared across apartments in proportion to their volume. Despite the associated collective action problem, we estimate that the intervention induces a −0.28 °C reduction in average indoor temperature. This suggests that direct monetary incentives is not a pre-requisite for social comparison feedback to induce energy savings.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Serhiy Kandul","Ghislaine Lang","Bruno Lanz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.108947","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7e0a833a1221a9fc","title":"Every Breath You Take—Every Dollar You’ll Make: The Long-Term Consequences of the Clean Air Act of 1970","abstract":"This paper examines the long-term impacts of in-utero and early childhood exposure to ambient air pollution on adult labor market outcomes. We take advantage of a new administrative data set that is uniquely suited for addressing this question because it combines information on individuals ’ quarterly earnings together with their counties and dates of birth. We use the sharp changes in ambient air pollution concentrations driven by the implementation of the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments as a source of identifying variation, and we compare cohorts born in counties that experienced large changes in total suspended particulate (TSP) exposure to cohorts born in counties that had minimal or no changes. We find a significant relationship between TSP exposure in the year of birth and adult labor market outcomes. A 10 unit decrease in TSP in the year of birth is associated with a 1 percent increase in annual earnings for workers aged 29-31. Most, but not all, of this effect is driven by an increase in labor force participation. In present value, the gains from being born into a county affected by the 1970 Clean Air Act amount to about $4,300 in lifetime income for the 1.5 million individuals born into","wordCount":201,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Adam Isen","Maya Rossin‐Slater","William R. Walker"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691465","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7e1abca62674a0db","title":"Measuring sustainable development goals performance: How to monitor policy action in the 2030 Agenda implementation?","abstract":"Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and corresponding targets for 2030 have been adopted by world leaders at the historic UN summit in 2015. Rankings are often constructed in order to hold countries accountable to achieve these targets. This paper illustrates the sensitivity of rankings to the choice of indicators and methodological assumptions by comparing the three most prominent methods using the sample of EU28 countries. The results of our analysis suggest that a country's relative position depends almost entirely on the chosen method and indicators.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Miola Apollonia","Fritz Schiltz"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106373","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e2d49c39a04c666","title":"Business cycles in small open economies: Evidence from panel data between 1900 and 2013","abstract":"Using a novel data set for 17 countries between 1900 and 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. We find that financial frictions are an important feature for not only developing but also small developed countries. Furthermore, business cycles in both groups of countries are marked with trend productivity shocks. Common disturbances explain one third of the fluctuations in small open economies, especially during important worldwide phenomena.","wordCount":95,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Wataru Miyamoto","Thuy Lan Nguyen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12243","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7e33fffd9006e686","title":"Incentivizing Creativity: A Large-Scale Experiment with Performance Bonuses and Gifts","abstract":"This paper reports the results from a large-scale laboratory experiment that compared the impacts of a performance bonus and a wage gift on output from a creative task and a simple task. We find that the performance bonus substantially increases output in both the creative task and the simple task. By comparison, the wage gift increases output only in the simple task. Additional experimental treatments suggest that reciprocity in the creative task is inhibited because agents are uncertain about how their efforts affect the payments that accrue to the principal as a result of the agents’ work.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Christiane Bradler","Susanne Neckermann","Arne Jonas Warnke"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/702649","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7e374f50c6956520","title":"On identifying subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes for timing games","abstract":"In Smirnov and Wait (2021), an iterative method is devised to identify subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes of timing games. This note shows by simple examples that the identification is in fact neither necessary nor sufficient. The main issue is that the method does not fully reflect the requirements of subgame perfection, so there is a conceptual and not just a technical problem.","wordCount":61,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Jan-Henrik Steg"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.05.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e3da3a4f28edec6","title":"Intellectual Property Rights Protection, Ownership, and Innovation: Evidence from China","abstract":"Using a difference-in-differences approach, we study how intellectual property right (IPR) protection affects innovation in China in the years around the privatizations of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Innovation increases after SOE privatizations, and this increase is larger in cities with strong IPR protection. Our results support theoretical arguments that IPR protection strengthens firms’ incentives to innovate and that private sector firms are more sensitive to IPR protection than SOEs.","wordCount":68,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Lily H. Fang","Josh Lerner","Chaopeng Wu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7e5ccb504c12deec","title":"Extreme temperatures and school performance of the poor: Evidence from Mexico","abstract":"As the risks associated with climate change intensify, understanding its impacts on human capital development is crucial. In this paper, we analyze the causal effects of temperature on the academic performance of students in Mexico, a middle-income country facing significant climate risks and socioeconomic challenges. Using panel data on over 5.5 million students, our results show that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature leads to a 0.07 and 0.08 standard deviation decrease in Spanish and math test scores, respectively. Moreover, a one standard deviation (0.93 °C) increase in the long-term municipal temperature average is associated with 0.04 and 0.03 standard deviation declines in those scores. The effects are context-dependent - students in historically colder municipalities actually benefit from hotter temperatures, likely due to improved learning conditions in under-insulated schools and homes. However, the detrimental impacts appear consistent across urban, rural, and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, underscoring the vulnerability of marginalized populations to the academic consequences of climate change. Overall, our findings highlight the urgency of addressing the educational dimensions of the global climate crisis through targeted interventions and adaptive policies, particularly in low-and middle-income countries.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Eva O. Arceo-Gómez","Alejandro López‐Feldman"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111700","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e69083a60f3146a","title":"On the design of sustainable cities: Local traffic pollution and urban structure","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of local traffic pollution on the formation of residential and business districts. While firms benefit from local production externalities, households commute to their workplaces with private vehicles and exert a local pollution externality on the residents living along the urban transport networks. The spatial location of firms and residents endogenously results from the trade-off between the production and pollution externalities and the commuting costs. The analysis shows that in monocentric cities the benefits associated with a fall in per-vehicle pollution are absorbed by rents paid to absentee landlords. When a city includes business and residential districts as well as a district mixing both agents, a lower per-vehicle pollution enlarges the residential districts and shifts the business districts closer to the geographical center of the city. The paper finally studies the optimal city structure. The first-best policies that fully internalize the externalities still foster business agglomeration.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Efthymia Kyriakopoulou","Pierre M. Picard"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102443","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e6ce59cd65a6b3c","title":"Excess payoff dynamics in games","abstract":"We present the family of Excess Payoff Dynamics for normal-form games, where the growth of a strategy depends only on its current proportion and the excess payoff, i.e., the payoff advantage of the strategy over the average population payoff. Requiring dependence only on the own excess payoff and a natural sign-preserving condition, the class essentially reduces to aggregate monotonic dynamics, a functional generalization of the Replicator Dynamics. However, Excess Payoff Dynamics also include a different subclass which contains the Replicator Dynamics, the Brown-von Neumann-Nash Dynamics, and other interesting examples as, e.g., satisficing dynamics. We also clarify the relation to excess demand dynamics from microeconomics.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Carlos Alós‐Ferrer","Josef Hofbauer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105464","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7e72ff2d7c0b2d83","title":"Competition, confidence and gender: Shifting the focus from the overconfident to the realistic","abstract":"The gender gap in competitiveness is argued to explain gender differences in later life outcomes, including career choices and the gender wage gap. In experimental settings, a prevalent explanation attributes this gap to males being more (over)confident than females (we call this the compositional channel). While our lab-in-the-field study using data from students in 53 classrooms (N > 1000) reproduces this finding, it also uncovers a second, potentially more impactful channel of confidence contributing to the gender gap in competitiveness (the preference channel). To disentangle the two channels, we propose a more precise measure of confidence based on whether the subjects’ believed performance rank exceeds, coincides with or falls short of their actual performance in a real-effort task. We label categories of this Guessed - Actual Performance (GAP) difference as overconfident, realistic or underconfident, respectively. Surprisingly, there is no gender difference in competitiveness within the over- and underconfident subgroups, while a significant gender gap exists among the realistic. So, even if both genders had the same level of confidence, a persistent gender gap in preference (or taste) for competition would remain in the realistic group. This finding is robust across all specifications, challenging previous theories about the overconfidence of men being the main driver of the relationship between confidence and the gender gap in competition.","wordCount":215,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Tünde Lénárd","Dániel Horn","Hubert János Kiss"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102746","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7e733efff2d056b3","title":"Sending peace home! The effect of political favoritism on conflict","abstract":"In this paper we investigate and assess the link between political favoritism and domestic conflict. In particular, we compare the difference in the likelihood and intensity of conflict between regions in which citizens reside that belong to identity groups of political leaders and others over time in a global sample for autocracies and non-autocratic regimes. Combining geo-coded conflict data with self-gathered information on the birthplaces and ethnic affiliation of 836 political national leaders and using a two-way fixed effects model with region and country-year fixed effects, we find that regions experience 13.2% fewer casualties while they constitute the birth region of the national leader in autocracies compared to other times. Our empirical evidence on ethnic favoritism is mixed.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Andreas Kammerlander","Kerstin Unfried"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e73f0555f3334c7","title":"On the driving forces of real exchange rates: Is the Japanese Yen different?","abstract":"We estimate variance decompositions of the real exchange rate ( q ) for 19 currencies based on a present-value relation. At very short horizons, the driving force of q is predictability of the future exchange rate. At long horizons, return predictability drives most variation in q , with predictability of interest differentials playing a secondary role. This pattern is especially strong for the Non-G10 currencies. However, the long-run predictability mix associated with the Japanese Yen clearly deviates from the other currencies and is unstable over time. The quantitative simulation of a liquidity-based exchange rate model largely replicates our main empirical findings.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Paulo F. Maio","Ming Zeng"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101423","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e74ae4e892305ee","title":"Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation using Convex Time Budgets","abstract":"We examine 220 estimates of the present-bias parameter from 28 articles using the Convex Time Budget protocol. The literature shows that people are on average present-biased, but estimates exhibit substantial heterogeneity across studies. There is evidence of modest selective reporting in the direction of over-reporting present bias. The primary source of heterogeneity is the type of reward, either monetary or non-monetary, but this effect is weakened after correcting for selective reporting. In studies using monetary rewards, the delay until the issue of the reward associated with the ‘current’ time period influences estimates of the present-bias parameter.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Taisuke Imai","Tom Rutter","Colin F. Camerer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa115","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e870126f773ac9a","title":"How common is the common-ratio effect?","abstract":"The common-ratio effect and the Allais Paradox (common-consequence effect) are the two best‐known violations of Expected Utility Theory. We reexamine data from 39 articles reporting experiments (143 designs/parameterizations, 14,909 observations) and find that the common-ratio effect is systematically affected by experimental design and implementation choices. The common-ratio effect is more likely to be observed in experiments with a low common-ratio factor, a high ratio of middle to highest outcome, when lotteries are presented as simple probability distributions (not in a compound/frequency form), and with high hypothetical incentives.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Pavlo R. Blavatskyy","Valentyn Panchenko","Andreas Ortmann"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-022-09761-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7e883b1a65584cac","title":"Private equity investment criteria: An experimental conjoint analysis of venture capital, business angels, and family offices","abstract":"We use an experimental conjoint analysis to investigate the investment criteria of 749 private equity investors, distinguishing between family offices, business angels, venture capital funds, growth equity funds, and leveraged buyout funds. Our results indicate that revenue growth is the most important investment criterion, followed by the value-added of product/service, the management team's track record, and profitability. Regarding differences across investor types, we find that family offices, growth equity funds, and leveraged buyout funds place a higher value on profitability as compared to business angels and venture capital funds. Venture capital funds, in turn, pay more attention to companies' revenue growth, business models, and current investors. With these results, our study contributes to the corporate finance literature by deepening our understanding of how different types of private equity investors make investment decisions.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Joern Block","Christian Fisch","Silvio Vismara","René Andres"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.05.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7e91e13a5705809d","title":"When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response","abstract":"We document extreme disruption in debt markets during the COVID-19 crisis: a severe price crash accompanied by significant dislocations at the safer end of the credit spectrum. Investment-grade corporate bonds traded at a discount to credit default swaps; exchange-traded funds traded at a discount to net asset value, more so for safer bonds. The Federal Reserve’s announcement of corporate bond purchases caused these dislocations to disappear and prices to recover. These facts inform potential theories of the disruption. The best explanation is an acute liquidity need for specific bond investors, such as mutual funds, leading them to liquidate large positions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Valentin Haddad","Alan Moreira","Tyler Muir"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa145","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7e9205cc21da3bd2","title":"Stagnation Traps","abstract":"We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by high unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth depresses aggregate demand and pushes the policy rate against the zero lower bound, while growth is weak because low aggregate demand results in low profits, limiting firms’ investment in innovation. Aggressive policies aiming at restoring growth, such as subsidies to investment, can successfully lead the economy out of a stagnation trap by generating a regime shift in agents’ growth expectations.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Gianluca Benigno","Luca Fornaro"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx063","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7e94296da1770021","title":"Inflation expectations and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory","abstract":"Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian framework, we explore the interaction between the formation of inflation expectations and monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy when expectations formation is not perfectly rational. Instrumental rules that use actual rather than forecasted inflation produce lower inflation variability and reduce expectational cycles. A forward-looking Taylor rule where a reaction coefficient equals 4 produces lower inflation variability than rules with reaction coefficients of 1.5 and 1.35. Inflation variability produced with the latter two rules is not significantly different. Moreover, the forecasting rules chosen by subjects appear to vary systematically with the policy regime, with destabilizing mechanisms chosen more often when inflation control is weaker.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Damjan Pfajfar","B. Zakelj"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000560","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7ea01cf63560f5f7","title":"Dual‐Credit Courses and the Road to College: Experimental Evidence from Tennessee","abstract":"Dual‐credit courses expose high school students to college‐level content and provide the opportunity to earn college credits, in part to smooth the transition to college. With the Tennessee Department of Education, we conduct the first randomized controlled trial of the effects of dual‐credit math coursework on a range of high school and college outcomes. We find that the dual‐credit advanced algebra course alters students’ subsequent high school math course‐taking, reducing enrollment in remedial math and boosting enrollment in precalculus and Advanced Placement math courses. We fail to detect an effect of the dual‐credit math course on overall rates of college enrollment. However, the course induces some students to choose four‐year universities instead of two‐year colleges, particularly for those in the middle of the math achievement distribution and those first exposed to the opportunity to take the course in eleventh rather than twelfth grade. We see limited evidence of improvements in early math performance during college.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Steven W. Hemelt","Nathaniel Schwartz","Susan Dynarski"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22180","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7ea9b7a2d7a51b4e","title":"Dishonesty as a collective‐risk social dilemma","abstract":"We investigated lying as a collective‐risk social dilemma. Misreporting resulted in increased individual earnings but when total claims reached a certain threshold, all group members were at risk of collective sanction, regardless of their individual behavior. Due to selfishness and miscoordination, most individuals earned less than the reservation payoff from honest reporting in the group. However, preferences for truth‐telling lowered the risk of collective sanction in this setting compared to a social dilemma game in which players could make direct claims without lying. The risk of sanctions decreased with risk aversion and a smaller group size.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Shuguang Jiang","Marie Claire Villeval"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13171","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ebd09eea9e20509","title":"Robots and labor in nursing homes","abstract":"Employment, retention, care quality, and productivity increase with robot adoption. How do employment, tasks, and productivity change with robot adoption? Unlike manufacturing, little is known about these issues in the service sector, where robot adoption is expanding. As a first step towards filling this gap, we study Japanese nursing homes using original facility-level panel data that includes the different robots used and the tasks performed. We find that robot adoption is accompanied by an increase in employment and retention and the relationship is strongest for non-regular care workers and monitoring robots. The share of specific tasks performed by robots increases with the adoption of the respective type of robot, leading to reallocation of care worker effort to “human touch” tasks that support quality care. Robots are associated with improved quality (reduction in restraint use and pressure ulcers) and productivity.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Yong Suk Lee","Toshiaki Iizuka","Karen Eggleston"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102666","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ec0635f591e67e1","title":"Employment Protection, Investment, and Firm Growth","abstract":"We exploit the adoption of U.S. state-level labor protection laws to study the effect of employment protection on corporate investment rates and sales growth. We find that, following the adoption of these laws, capital expenditures as a percentage of book assets decrease, resulting in slower sales growth. Our findings are consistent with theories predicting that greater employment protection discourages investment by making projects more irreversible. Supporting this channel, following negative cash flow shocks, firms are less likely to downsize operations in states that have adopted these laws but more likely to downsize in states that have not adopted these laws.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["John Bai","Douglas J. Fairhurst","Matthew Serfling"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz066","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7ec7f7cafb36dc0a","title":"A granular investigation on the stability of money demand","abstract":"A large literature has shown money demand functions constructed from simple-sum aggregates are unstable. We revisit the controversy surrounding the instability of money demand by examining cointegrating income-money relationships with the Divisia monetary aggregates for the U.S., and compare them with their simple-sum counterparts. We innovate by conducting a more granular analysis of various monetary assets and their associated user costs. We find characterizing money demand with simple-sum measures only works well in a period preceding 1980. Divisia aggregates, their components, and their user costs provide a more reliable interpretation of money demand. Subsample analysis across 1980 and 2008 suggests the instability of money demand is a matter of measurement rather than a consequence of a structural change in agents’ preference for monetary assets.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Zhengyang Chen","Victor J. Valcarcel"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000427","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7ed83546c0992efe","title":"Please call me John: Name choice and the assimilation of immigrants in the United States, 1900–1930","abstract":"The majority of immigrants to the United States at the beginning of the 20th century adopted American first names. In this paper we study the economic determinants of name choice, by relating the propensity of immigrants to carry an American first name to the local concentration of their compatriots and local labor market conditions. We find that high concentrations of immigrants of a given nationality discouraged members of that nationality from taking American names, in particular for more recent arrivals. In contrast, labor market conditions for immigrants do not seem to be associated with more frequent name changes among immigrants.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Pedro Carneiro","Sokbae Lee","Hugo Reis"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2019.101778","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7ee1092f2c975abf","title":"Gender differences in wage expectations and negotiation","abstract":"This paper presents evidence from a large-scale study on gender differences in expected wages before labor market entry. Based on data for over 15,000 students, we document a significant and large gender gap in wage expectations that resembles actual wage differences, prevails across subgroups, and along the entire distribution. Over the life-cycle this gap amounts to roughly half a million Euros. Our findings further suggest that expected wages relate to expected asking and reservation wages and that a difference in plans about “boldness” during prospective wage negotiations pertains to gender difference in expected and actual wages. Given the importance of wage expectations for labor market decisions, household bargaining, and wage setting, our results provide an explanation for persistent gender inequalities.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Lukas Kiessling","Pia Pinger","Philipp Seegers","Jan Bergerhoff"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102505","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7ee9912aae654894","title":"Quantifying the Life-Cycle Benefits of an Influential Early-Childhood Program","abstract":"This paper quantifies and aggregates the multiple lifetime benefits of an influential high-quality early childhood program with outcomes measured through midlife. Guided by economic theory, we supplement experimental data with non-experimental data to forecast the life-cycle benefits and costs of the program. Our point estimate of the internal rate of return is 13.7% with an associated benefit/cost ratio of 7.3. We account for model estimation and forecasting error and present estimates from extensive sensitivity analyses. This paper is a template for synthesizing experimental and non-experimental data using economic theory to estimate the long-run life-cycle benefits of social programs.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Jorge Luis García","James J. Heckman","Duncan Ermini Leaf","María Prados"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705718","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7ef76163bc150c83","title":"Patents and the choice of research projects","abstract":"This paper examines how patent strength affects R & D competition in a model where two symmetric firms simultaneously choose their research projects. A stronger patent system induces not only greater R & D investment but also more research duplication. It is shown that there exists a range of patent strength in which increasing patent strength discourages innovation. Moreover, as firms behave more collusively in the post-innovation market, the strongest patent system becomes less likely to maximize the probability of innovation.","wordCount":81,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Narumi Teshima"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103227","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7efef7e623449e4c","title":"Understanding the long‐run decline in interstate migration","abstract":"We analyze the secular decline in gross interstate migration in the United States from 1991 to 2011. We argue that migration fell because of a decline in the geographic specificity of returns to occupations, together with an increase in workers' ability to learn about other locations before moving. Micro data on earnings and occupations across space provide evidence for lower geographic specificity. Other explanations do not fit the data. A calibrated model formalizes the geographic specificity and information mechanisms and is consistent with cross‐sectional and time‐series evidence. Our mechanisms can explain at least half of the decline in migration.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Greg Kaplan","Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12209","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7f0cd74418a02690","title":"Towards a typology of risk preference: Four risk profiles describe two-thirds of individuals in a large sample of the U.S. population","abstract":"It has been a longstanding goal of the behavioral sciences to measure and model people’s risk preferences. In this article, we adopt a novel theoretical perspective of doing so and test to what extent specific types of individuals share similar risk profiles (i.e., configurations of multidimensional risk preferences). To this end, we analyzed data of a U.S. sample (N = 3,123) in a comprehensive and rigorous way, resulting in a twofold contribution. First, based on data from the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking scale (DOSPERT) and using a cross-validation procedure, we established a multidimensional trait space including general and domain-specific dimensions of risk preference. Second, we employed model-based cluster analyses in this multidimensional trait space, finding that 66% of participants can be described well with four basic risk profiles. In sum, the typological perspective proposed in this article has important implications for current theories of risk preference and the measurement of individual differences therein.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Renato Frey","Shannon M. Duncan","Elke U. Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09398-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7f21d875509503af","title":"Sovereign risk and intangible investment","abstract":"This paper measures the output and TFP losses from sovereign risk, considering firm-level intangible investment. Using Italian firm-level data, we show that firms reallocated from intangible assets to tangible assets during the 2011–2012 Italian sovereign debt crisis. This asset reallocation is more pronounced among small firms and high-leverage firms. This reallocation affects aggregate output and TFP. To explain the reallocation pattern and quantify the output and TFP losses, we build a sovereign default model incorporating firm intangible investment. In our model, sovereign risk deteriorates bank balance sheets, disrupting banks’ ability to finance firms. Firms with greater external financing needs are more exposed to sovereign risk. Facing tightening financial constraints, firms shift their resources towards tangibles because they can be used as collateral. We find that elevated sovereign risk explains 45% of the observed output losses and 31% of the TFP losses in Italy from 2011 to 2016.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Minjie Deng","Chang Liu"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7f38df0874bda848","title":"Variety-Based Congestion in Online Markets: Evidence from Mobile Apps","abstract":"In many online markets, consumers have to spend time and effort browsing through products. The addition of new products could make other products less visible, creating congestion externalities. Using Android app store data, I take advantage of a natural experiment—a redesign of part of the store—to show evidence of congestion externalities online: more apps in the market directly reduce per app usage/downloads. The natural experiment also increases long-run entry, but a structural demand model that accounts for congestion externalities suggests that 40 percent of consumer variety welfare gains are lost from higher congestion.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Daniel Ershov"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200347","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7f414d82579f2db1","title":"Causal inference of general treatment effects using neural networks with a diverging number of confounders","abstract":"Semiparametric efficient estimation of various multi-valued causal effects, including quantile treatment effects, is important in economic, biomedical, and other social sciences. Under the unconfoundedness condition, adjustment for confounders requires estimating the nuisance functions relating outcome or treatment to confounders nonparametrically. This paper considers a generalized optimization framework for efficient estimation of general treatment effects using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to approximate the unknown nuisance function of growing-dimensional confounders. We establish a new approximation error bound for the ANNs to the nuisance function belonging to a mixed smoothness class without a known sparsity structure. We show that the ANNs can alleviate the “curse of dimensionality” under this circumstance. We establish the root-n consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed general treatment effects estimators, and apply a weighted bootstrap procedure for conducting inference. The proposed methods are illustrated via simulation studies and a real data application.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Xiaohong Chen","Ying Liu","Shujie Ma","Zheng Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105555","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7f5137c4f57905f4","title":"Optimal Dynamic Carbon Taxes in a Climate–Economy Model with Distortionary Fiscal Policy","abstract":"How should carbon be taxed as a part of fiscal policy? The literature on optimal carbon pricing often abstracts from other taxes. However, when governments raise revenues with distortionary taxes, carbon levies have fiscal impacts. While they raise revenues directly, they may shrink the bases of other taxes (e.g. by decreasing employment). This article theoretically characterizes and then quantifies optimal carbon taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium climate–economy model with distortionary fiscal policy. First, this article establishes a novel theoretical relationship between the optimal taxation of carbon and of capital income. This link arises because carbon emissions destroy natural capital: they accumulate in the atmosphere and decrease future output. Consequently, this article shows how the standard logic against capital income taxes extends to distortions on environmental capital investments. Second, this article characterizes optimal climate policy in sub-optimal fiscal settings where income taxes are constrained to remain at their observed levels. Third, this article presents a detailed calibration that builds on the seminal DICE approach but adds features essential for a setting with distortionary taxes, such as a differentiation between climate change production impacts (e.g. on agriculture) and direct utility impacts (e.g. on biodiversity existence value). The central quantitative finding is that optimal carbon tax schedules are 8–24% lower when there are distortionary taxes, compared to the setting with lump-sum taxes considered in the literature.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Lint Barrage"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7f58c2d5b6aa915e","title":"Information spillover and market connectedness: multi-scale quantile-on-quantile analysis of the crude oil and carbon markets","abstract":"The asymmetric interdependence of carbon futures and crude oil futures prices in different market conditions remains unsettled in the literature. This study aims to quantify the crude oil price impacts on carbon price across the carbon-oil distribution in Phase III. For this purpose, we employ two novel methods, namely the quantile Granger causality test and the quantile-on-quantile regression methods. To detect the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of the crude oil price on carbon price, we further decompose the sample series into six components using the wavelet method. Accordingly, we are able to estimate the nexus between carbon futures and crude oil futures prices in different time and frequency domains. Through a series of robustness checks, we find our results stable and robust, indicating that the crude oil impact on carbon price is asymmetric, conditional on the whole carbon and crude oil price distributions. Furthermore, the crude oil impact varies across different time scales, and shows negative signs throughout the whole carbon price distribution in the short term and basically positive signs in the medium and long term. Based on the above findings, we highlight several important policy implications to promote better market regulation and portfolio optimization.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Xiaohang Ren","Yue Dou","Kangyin Dong","Yiying Li"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2030855","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7f75850a7bea3583","title":"The Agency Model and MFN Clauses","abstract":"I provide an analysis of vertical relations in markets with imperfect competition at both layers of the supply chain and where exchange is intermediated either with wholesale prices or revenue-sharing contracts. Revenue-sharing is extremely attractive to firms that are able to set the revenue shares but often makes the firms that set retail prices worse off. This is so whether revenue-sharing lowers or raises industry profits. These results are strengthened when a market moves from “the wholesale model” of sales to “the agency model” of sales, which results in retailers setting revenue shares and suppliers setting retail prices. I also show that retail price-parity restrictions raise industry prices. These results provide a potential explanation for why many online retailers have adopted the agency model and retail price-parity clauses.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Justin P. Johnson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx007","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7f7f712a203cc480","title":"Toddlers, teenagers, and terminal heights: the importance of puberty for male adult stature, Flanders, 1800–76","abstract":"Does adult stature capture conditions at birth or at some other stage in the growth cycle? Anthropometrics is lauded as a method for capturing net nutritional status over all the growing years. However, it is frequently assumed that conditions at birth were most influential. Was this true for historical populations? This article examines the heights of Flemish men born between 1800 and 1876 to tease apart which moments of growth were most sensitive to disruption and reflected in final heights. It exploits two proximate crises in 1846–9 and 1853–6 as shocks that permit age effects to be revealed. These are affirmed through a study of food prices and death rates. Both approaches suggest a shift of the critical moment away from the first few years of life and towards the adolescent growth spurt as the most influential on terminal stature. Furthermore, just as height is accumulated over the growing years, conditions influencing growth need to be understood cumulatively. Economic conditions at the time of birth were not explanatory, but their collective effects from ages 11 to 18 years were strongly influential. At these ages, both health and nutrition mattered, to varying degrees. Teenagers, rather than toddlers, should be our guides to the past.","wordCount":203,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Ewout Depauw","Deborah Oxley"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12745","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7f7ff4b1b47dc7b7","title":"The Long-Term Costs of Government Surveillance: Insights from Stasi Spying in East Germany","abstract":"We investigate the long-run effects of government surveillance on civic capital and economic performance, studying the case of the Stasi in East Germany. Exploiting regional variation in the number of spies and administrative features of the system, we combine a border discontinuity design with an instrumental variable strategy to estimate the long-term, post-reunification effect of government surveillance. We find that a higher spying density led to persistently lower levels of interpersonal and institutional trust in post-reunification Germany. We also find substantial and long-lasting economic effects of Stasi surveillance, resulting in lower income, higher exposure to unemployment, and lower self-employment.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Andreas Lichter","Max Löffler","Sebastian Siegloch"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7fa08c7126a6beae","title":"Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires","abstract":"We revisit the issue of the high cyclicality of wages of new hires. We show that after controlling for composition effects likely involving procyclical upgrading of job match quality, the wages of new hires are no more cyclical than those of existing workers. The key implication is that the sluggish behaviour of wages for existing workers is a better guide to the cyclicality of the marginal cost of labour than is the high measured cyclicality of new hires wages unadjusted for composition effects. Key to our identification is distinguishing between new hires from unemployment versus those who are job changers. We argue that to a reasonable approximation, the wages of the former provide a composition-free estimate of the wage flexibility, while the same is not true for the latter. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with sticky wages via staggered contracting, on-the-job search, and heterogeneous match quality, and show that it can account for both the panel data evidence and aggregate evidence on labour market volatility.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Mark Gertler","Christopher Huckfeldt","Antonella Trigari"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7fa14cc9c9275ece","title":"From chain to capital: Supply chain risks and working capital management","abstract":"These adjustments are more pronounced in firms with financial constraints, international exposure, and in high-risk sectors, highlighting strategies for resilience. This study empirically examines the influence of supply chain risks on working capital management. By employing a text-based measure of firm-specific supply chain risks and a large sample of US listed firms, this study uncovers a strong positive correlation between supply chain risk exposure and net working capital, with an increase of approximately 6% annually. Firms strategically adjust by increasing inventory and accounts receivable while reducing accounts payable to buffer against disruptions. This adaptive response is particularly evident in firms facing financial constraints, higher international exposure, and those in high-risk sectors, offering critical insights into enhancing resilience and operational efficiency.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Nhan Huynh","Quynh Nga Le"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112100","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7fa98d684e70746a","title":"Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Economic Output","abstract":"Climate change is likely to affect economies not only through warming, but also via an increase in prolonged extreme events like heat waves. However, the impacts of heat waves on economic output are not well captured by standard empirical approaches that ignore when hot days occur. Using a global dataset spanning 1979–2016, we show agricultural losses from past heat waves are up to an order of magnitude larger than suggested by standard approaches. Combining these estimates with a suite of climate models implies that by the end of the century, climate damages in agriculture may be 5–10 times larger than is predicted by a focus on mean temperature shifts alone. These findings have important implications for targeting and evaluating climate adaptation efforts.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Steve J. Miller","Kenn Chua","Jay S. Coggins","Hamid Mohtadi"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab009","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7faaa323b2ce6300","title":"Tax-free digital news?","abstract":"News platforms are struggling. Their printed readership is predominantly old, and their digital product struggles to win the attention of the young. For several decades tax reductions have been used in Europe to increase the circulation of printed newspapers. Would extending these reductions to digital platforms stimulate digital consumption? Using a two-sided pricing model where a print platform and a digital platform compete for multi-homing consumers and advertisers we show that the answer is no. The two-sidedness of the market means that the digital price would increase. Not only would digital circulation decrease but so too would the fraction of consumers that access news from both platforms. Key media policy goals of reach (circulation) and pluralism (multi-homing) would be harmed.","wordCount":120,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Øystein Foros","Hans Jarle Kind","Tim Wyndham"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2018.05.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-7fc09e105044b290","title":"Text-Based Network Industries and Endogenous Product Differentiation","abstract":"We study how firms differ from their competitors using new time-varying measures of product similarity based on text-based analysis of firm 10-K product descriptions. This year-by-year set of product similarity measures allows us to generate a new set of industries in which firms can have their own distinct set of competitors. Our new sets of competitors explain specific discussion of high competition, rivals identified by managers as peer firms, and changes to industry competitors following exogenous industry shocks. We also find evidence that firm R&D and advertising are associated with subsequent differentiation from competitors, consistent with theories of endogenous product differentiation.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Gerard Hoberg","Gordon M. Phillips"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688176","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7fca266bfefc2651","title":"Real estate security token offerings and the secondary market: Driven by crypto hype or fundamentals?","abstract":"Tokens, the digital form of assets, are an innovation that has the potential to disrupt how to transfer and own financial instruments. We hand-collected data on 173 real estate tokens in the USA between 2019 and 2021 and trace back 238,433 blockchain transactions. We find that tokens provide broad real estate ownership to many small investors through digital fractional ownership and low entry barriers, while investors do not yet hold well-diversified real estate token portfolios. We analyze the determinants of the success of security token offerings (STOs), secondary market trading, and daily aggregated capital flows. In addition to some property-specific determinants, we find that crypto-market-specific determinants, such as transaction costs and the related sentiment, are relevant both to the STO and capital flows.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Julia Kreppmeier","Ralf Laschinger","Bertram I. Steininger","Gregor Dorfleitner"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106940","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-7fd74387b5d8431a","title":"The Impacts of Telematics on Competition and Consumer Behavior in Insurance","abstract":"Recent technological innovations allow insurance providers to closely monitor and collect detailed data on their customers’ behaviors. Such innovations offer potential benefits by mitigating moral-hazard problems but may provide the incumbent with a lasting first-mover advantage, which may harm consumers. We investigate these outcomes in the context of pay-how-you-drive (PHYD) auto insurance, which offers tailored discounts to drivers monitored by telematics devices. We exploit the staggered entry of PHYD insurance across states and insurers in a difference-in-differences framework. While innovating firms experience initial profit increases, the profits are eroded by entry, which suggests that this innovation does not raise novel antitrust concerns. Furthermore, we find a meaningful impact of PHYD programs on fatal car accidents. Our findings are consistent with impacts implied by canonical theoretical models.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Imke Reimers","Benjamin Shiller"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705119","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-7fd8478c46ad8b7c","title":"Local information and firm expectations about aggregates","abstract":"Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. Variables (fixed effects) measuring local signals account for up to 26 % (47 %) of the expectation dispersion across firms. The effect is particularly strong for small firms. Our results confirm predictions of theoretical models with rational inattention.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Jonas Dovern","Lena Sophia Müller","Klaus Wohlrabe"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8005ba70bc020652","title":"Local boy does good: The effect of CSR activities on firm value","abstract":"We examine the relation between home CEOs and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Our analysis shows home CEOs are associated with higher CSR engagement and increased firm value. These firms exhibit higher asset turnover, lower cost of equity, improved productivity, sales, and profit margins. Home CEOs focus more on community, environmental, and employee-related CSR, and are linked to reduced carbon emissions. This relationship is stronger in firms with higher local business concentration and investor monitoring. Firms led by home CEOs earn higher returns during recent crises. Our results suggest the value increase is not primarily due to agency effects and remain robust to endogeneity concerns. The study indicates a CEO's community connection may influence CSR effectiveness, suggesting that mere CSR engagement may not suffice to boost trust and value. These results highlight the potential importance of local ties in corporate leadership and CSR strategy.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Zicheng Lei","Dimitris Petmezas","P. Raghavendra Rau","Yang Chen"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107398","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-800a641b2edbd31d","title":"Multiple hypothesis testing in experimental economics","abstract":"The analysis of data from experiments in economics routinely involves testing multiple null hypotheses simultaneously. These different null hypotheses arise naturally in this setting for at least three different reasons: when there are multiple outcomes of interest and it is desired to determine on which of these outcomes a treatment has an effect; when the effect of a treatment may be heterogeneous in that it varies across subgroups defined by observed characteristics and it is desired to determine for which of these subgroups a treatment has an effect; and finally when there are multiple treatments of interest and it is desired to determine which treatments have an effect relative to either the control or relative to each of the other treatments. In this paper, we provide a bootstrap-based procedure for testing these null hypotheses simultaneously using experimental data in which simple random sampling is used to assign treatment status to units. Using the general results in Romano and Wolf (Ann Stat 38:598–633, 2010), we show under weak assumptions that our procedure (1) asymptotically controls the familywise error rate—the probability of one or more false rejections—and (2) is asymptotically balanced in that the marginal probability of rejecting any true null hypothesis is approximately equal in large samples. Importantly, by incorporating information about dependence ignored in classical multiple testing procedures, such as the Bonferroni and Holm corrections, our procedure has much greater ability to detect truly false null hypotheses. In the presence of multiple treatments, we additionally show how to exploit logical restrictions across null hypotheses to further improve power. We illustrate our methodology by revisiting the study by Karlan and List (Am Econ Rev 97(5):1774–1793, 2007) of why people give to charitable causes.","wordCount":282,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["John A. List","Azeem M. Shaikh","Yang Xu"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-09597-5","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-801b9645f89882fc","title":"Access to justice and economic development: Evidence from an international panel dataset","abstract":"This paper evaluates the importance of access to justice (ATJ) for economic growth. To do so, we create a new database on the number of judges per capita by collecting data from various public institutions and academic publications. We use these data as a country-level indicator to capture the structural evolution of ATJ from 1970 to 2019 for a wide range of developed and developing countries. Using an instrumental variable approach in a dynamic panel setting to deal with endogeneity, we show that ATJ has a sizable positive effect on economic growth. The substantial aggregate effect of ATJ on growth is independent of countries’ legal origin, customary law, rule of law or level of democracy. However, we find evidence that the economic returns from ATJ are higher in poorer countries. In terms of mechanisms, our results suggest that ATJ promotes growth via higher government accountability and improved institutional quality.","wordCount":149,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Arnaud Deseau","Adam Levai","Michèle Schmiegelow"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104947","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-803977acf65d4ae5","title":"Community College Program Choices in the Wake of Local Job Losses","abstract":"Deciding which field to study is one of the most consequential decisions college students make, but most research on the topic focuses on students attending four-year colleges. To understand how students attending community colleges make field of study decisions, the author links administrative educational records of recent high school graduates with local mass layoff and plant closing announcements. He finds that declines in local employment deter students from entering closely related community college programs and instead induce them to enroll in other vocationally-oriented programs. He further documents that students predominantly shift enrollment between programs that lead to occupations requiring similar skills.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Riley Acton"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712555","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-803bc778f6330ccc","title":"Effect of local government taxes and spending on the redevelopment of commercial property","abstract":"We provide the first causal evidence of the effect of taxation and spending on the redevelopment of commercial property. We analyze a unique dataset of local government property tax levies to renew current expense funding for general operating purposes. Our regression discontinuity approach finds cities that vote to renew taxes and spending have more redevelopment of commercial property than cities that cut balanced-budget funding by an average of 21%. Demolition doubles, and new construction increases an average of 48%. The results hold for cities in urban areas, service sector-oriented cities, and cities with above-median population growth. We even find that renewing funding for local government services spurs more commercial redevelopment in cities with declining populations, but only in a sample that allows outliers. Firms seem to value local government spending more than cutting taxes.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["David M. Brasington","Daniel P. McMillen","Evan W. Carson"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2026.104202","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-804cac14182374a3","title":"Higher education expansion and the rise of China in economics research","abstract":"China has seen a massive higher education expansion, which the literature has dated to the 1999–2008 period with quantitative and qualitative outcomes. However, the consequences for the publication success of Chinese authors worldwide are not well studied. We review the respective Chinese higher education policies and document the dramatic rise in publication success, with a focus on the field of Economics. A substantial set of regressions and robustness checks confirm the understanding that the higher education expansion has indeed let to a substantial worldwide rise in scientific publications in refereed economics journals fueled by the general incentives of the reform, through research collaborations and other quality improving factors.","wordCount":108,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Matloob Piracha","Massimiliano Tani","Klaus F. Zimmermann","Yu Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101813","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-804f92c3a32a5cd3","title":"Input and output additionality of R&D subsidies","abstract":"This article analyses the effects of public R&D subsidies on R&D input and output of German firms. We distinguish between the direct impact of subsidies on R&D investment and the indirect effect on innovation output measured by patent applications. We disentangle the productivity of purely privately financed R&D and additional R&D investment induced by the public incentive scheme. For this, a treatment-effect analysis is conducted in a first step. The results are implemented into the estimation of a patent production function in a second step. It turns out that both purely privately financed R&D and publicly induced R&D show a positive effect on patent outcome.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Dirk Czarnitzki","Katrin Hussinger"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1361010","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-8074faaad94b7f91","title":"Entrepreneurship over the life cycle: Where are the young entrepreneurs?","abstract":"Most individuals do not start a business and, if they do, they start well into their 30s. To explain these stylized facts, I estimate a dynamic Roy model with experience accumulation, risk aversion, and imperfect information about ability using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Information frictions and income risk reduce entrepreneurship by up to 40% and 35%, respectively. Entry costs and information frictions explain most of the delayed entry. Results from counterfactual policies targeting delayed entry suggest that entrepreneurship education can yield higher returns than subsidies. Fostering young entrepreneurship yields higher returns than fostering old entrepreneurship.","wordCount":97,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Andrés Lema Hincapié"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12436","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-807541515dfb2c11","title":"The Price Effects of Cash Versus In-Kind Transfers","abstract":"This article examines the effect of cash versus in-kind transfers on local prices. Both types of transfers increase the demand for normal goods; in-kind transfers also increase supply in recipient communities, which could lead to lower prices than under cash transfers. We test and confirm this prediction using a programme in Mexico that randomly assigned villages to receive boxes of food (trucked into the village), equivalently-valued cash transfers, or no transfers. We find that prices are significantly lower under in-kind transfers compared to cash transfers; relative to the control group, in-kind transfers cause a 4% fall in prices while cash transfers cause a positive but negligible increase in prices. In the more economically developed villages in the sample, households’ purchasing power is only modestly affected by these price effects. In the less developed villages, the price effects are much larger in magnitude, which we show is due to these villages being less tied to the outside economy and having less competition among local suppliers.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Jesse M. Cunha","Giacomo De Giorgi","Seema Jayachandran"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-807a983ef72b9bf3","title":"Inequality in 3‐D: Income, Consumption, and Wealth","abstract":"We do not need to and should not have to choose amongst income, consumption, or wealth as the superior measure of well‐being. All three individually and jointly determine well‐being. We are the first to study inequality in three conjoint dimensions for the same households, using income, consumption, and wealth from the 1989–2016 Surveys of Consumer Finances (SCF). The paper focuses on two questions. What does inequality in two and three dimensions look like? Has inequality in multiple dimensions increased by less, by more, or by about the same as inequality in any one dimension? We find an increase in inequality in two dimensions and in three dimensions, with a faster increase in multi‐dimensional inequality than in one‐dimensional inequality. Viewing inequality through one dimension greatly understates the level and the growth in inequality in two and three dimensions. The U.S. is becoming more economically unequal than is generally understood.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Jonathan D. Fisher","David Johnson","Timothy M. Smeeding","Jeffrey P. Thompson"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12509","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-808c408e4319c544","title":"Beliefs and the net worth trap","abstract":"We develop a tractable framework to explore how beliefs about long-term economic growth shape macroeconomic and financial stability. By modeling belief distortions among productive capital users, we provide an analytical characterization of a novel phenomenon termed the “net worth trap”, wherein overly optimistic or pessimistic beliefs among productive agents prevent them from rebuilding wealth, causing permanent inefficiencies. A procyclical swing in beliefs reduces or exacerbates the instability, indicating that the type of belief when the economy is vulnerable has important consequences on financial stability and macroeconomic dynamics.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Goutham Gopalakrishna","Seung Joo Lee","Theofanis Papamichalis"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.106033","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-80998d52460012fa","title":"Effects of Access to Legal Same‐Sex Marriage on Marriage and Health","abstract":"We provide the first comprehensive evidence on the effects of access to legal same‐sex marriage (SSM) on marriage and adult health using the full rollout of marriage equality across the United States. Using data from the CDC BRFSS from 2000 to 2017, we relate changes in outcomes for individuals in same‐sex households (SSH) coincident with adoption of legal SSM in two‐way fixed effects models. A substantial share of these households includes gay and lesbian couples. For men in SSH, we find robust evidence that access to legal SSM significantly increased marriage take‐up, health insurance coverage, access to care, and healthcare utilization. Results for women in SSH are inconclusive apart from a clear increase in marriage take‐up. Our results provide the first evidence that legal access to SSM significantly improved health for adult gay men.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Christopher S. Carpenter","Samuel T. Eppink","Gilbert Gonzales","Tara McKay"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22286","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-80b902e47c9097a4","title":"Managing credit bubbles","abstract":"We study a dynamic economy where credit is limited by insufficient collateral and, as a result, investment and output are too low. In this environment, changes in investor sentiment or market expectations can give rise to credit bubbles, that is, expansions in credit that are backed not by expectations of future profits (i.e., fundamental collateral), but instead by expectations of future credit (i.e., bubbly collateral). Credit bubbles raise the availability of credit for entrepreneurs: this is the crowding-in effect. However, entrepreneurs must also use some of this credit to cancel past credit: this is the crowding-out effect. There is an “optimal” bubble size that trades off these two effects and maximizes long-run output and consumption. The equilibrium bubble size depends on investor sentiment, however, and it typically does not coincide with the “optimal” bubble size. This provides a new rationale for macroprudential policy. A credit management agency (CMA) can replicate the “optimal” bubble by taxing credit when the equilibrium bubble is too high and subsidizing credit when the equilibrium bubble is too low. This leaning-against-the-wind policy maximizes output and consumption. Moreover, the same conditions that make this policy desirable guarantee that a CMA has the resources to implement it.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Alberto Martín","Jaume Ventura"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12161","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-80c075e3500efc2f","title":"Expertise versus Bias in Evaluation: Evidence from the NIH","abstract":"Evaluators with expertise in a particular field may have an informational advantage in separating good projects from bad. At the same time, they may also have personal preferences that impact their objectivity. This paper examines these issues in the context of peer review at the US National Institutes of Health. I show that evaluators are both better informed and more biased about the quality of projects in their own area. On net, the benefits of expertise weakly dominate the costs of bias. As such, policies designed to limit bias by seeking impartial evaluators may reduce the quality of funding decisions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Danielle Li"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150421","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-80c5a45849712dc4","title":"Farsighted manipulation and exploitation in networks","abstract":"Farsighted economic agents can use their advantage to exploit their more myopic counterparts. In public goods games played on networks, such an agent will attempt to manipulate as many of his neighbors as possible to contribute to the public good. We study the exploitation of a myopic population by a single farsighted player in such games. We show the existence and payoff-uniqueness of optimal farsighted strategies in every network structure. For all optimal strategies, the set of absorbing effort profiles is non-empty and is generally neither a subset or a superset of the set of Nash equilibria of the static game. Optimal long-run effort profiles for the farsighted player can be reached via a simple dependence-withdrawal strategy and the farsighted player's effects on the myopic players are only felt locally. We characterize the lower and upper bounds of long-run payoffs the farsighted player can attain in a given network and examine comparative statics with respect to adding a new link. The farsighted player always benefits from linking to more opponents and is always harmed by his neighbors linking to each other.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Péter Bayer","P. Jean‐Jacques Herings","Ronald Peeters"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105311","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-80d286629a99845c","title":"The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 1960–2010","abstract":"Previous work on transportation investments has focused on average impacts in high- and middle-income countries. We estimate average and heterogeneous effects in a poor continent, Africa, using roads and cities data spanning 50 years in 39 countries. Using changes in market access due to distant road construction as a source of exogenous variation, we estimate a 30-year elasticity of city population with respect to market access of about 0.08–0.13. Our results suggest that this elasticity is stronger for small and remote cities, and weaker in politically favored and agriculturally suitable areas. Access to foreign cities besides international ports matters little. Additional evidence points suggestively to rural-to-urban migration as the primary source of this population increase, though we cannot fully rule out natural increase or reallocation across cities.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Rémi Jedwab","Adam Storeygard"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-80d4b795f0610727","title":"Political Institutions, Economic Liberty, and the Great Divergence","abstract":"I argue that Europe's political fragmentation interacted with her political innovations—self-governing cities and national parliaments—to facilitate “economic liberty,” which in turn unleashed faster and more inter-connected urban growth. Examining urban growth over the period 600–1800 ce throughout Eurasia, I show that inter-city growth correlations were positive and significant only in Western Europe after 1200 ce . Within Western Europe, I show that growth correlations were greatest in the most fragmented and parliamentary areas, individual cities became significantly more tied to urban growth when their realms became parliamentary, and spillover effects (due to competition between rulers) were significant.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Gary W. Cox"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000729","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-80e180c5a776d839","title":"Public–Private Collusion","abstract":"We study collusion between a public firm and a private firm facing linear demand and quadratic costs. We characterize the collusive outcome that results from Nash bargaining and compare it to the non-cooperative outcome. If the public firm’s taste for consumer surplus is mild, both firms reduce output (as in a private duopoly). If it is intermediate, while the public firm reduces output, the private firm expands output to such an extent that total output increases. If it is strong, the private firm’s output expansion does not compensate for the public firm’s output contraction, and thus total output decreases. We also characterize collusion sustainability, and assess the impact of relative bargaining power, degree of cost convexity, public firm’s taste for total surplus, and cost asymmetry. We conclude that, by reducing the productive inefficiency that is caused by the public firm being more expansionary, collusion may lead to higher profits and consumer surplus.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Filipa Mota","João Correia‐da‐Silva","Joana Pinho"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09903-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-810321959d28c0f1","title":"Cornered by PAs: Adopting rights-based approaches to enable cost-effective conservation and climate action","abstract":"We analyze how governments and the international community expand protected areas (PAs) to reduce biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation at a cost to indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) in terms of rights and conflict. This contradicts commitments made by the conservation community to UNDRIP and Indigenous Peoples’ (IPs) and other human rights and Aichi Biodiversity Target 11. We build on information indigenous and conservation organization leaders shared with the UN Special Rapporteur for the Rights of Indigenous Peoples at the 2016 UN Permanent Forum for Indigenous Issues of complaints against governments for violation of IPs’ rights, and link these to extensive, like evidence in the literature. Case studies from countries of priority biodiversity (Panama, Peru, India, Republic of Congo and Indonesia) broaden the evidence. Globally IPs and local communities conserve nearly 2 billion hectares of land for diverse reasons (sacred, critical resource areas, water). Much of their contributory effort goes unrecognized and disrespected, even though IPLCs invest significant time and money in forest and land conservation—concentrated in low and middle-income countries of priority biodiversity with spending gaps. While more of these countries endorse IPLC conservation, the rights still remain limited in many countries. Across much of the world, IPLCs have become ‘cornered’ by PA boundaries that overlap their lands while PA policies and neighboring commercial concessions further separate them from land and livelihoods and justify killings and evictions, and livelihood and identity loss. Though IUCN PA governance types embrace IPLC management, the reality is a preponderance of State-owned-and-managed PAs. This does not help meet conservation targets. Globally endorsed principles for grievance and reconciliation exist but have not been applied; meanwhile IPLCs invest heavily in conservation with limited support from governments and donors who play a predominant role in setting global biodiversity targets.","wordCount":293,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Vicky Tauli-Corpuz","Janis B. Alcorn","Augusta Molnar","Christina Healy","Edmund Barrow"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104923","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-811b2d3e8e7aae6c","title":"Bank market power and financial reporting quality","abstract":"Joining the debate on the banking sector's impact on the real economy, this study examines the impact of banks' market power on local businesses' financial reporting quality. Based on the market power hypothesis and the information-based hypothesis, we propose four ways the banking market could affect the financial reporting quality. The proposed mechanisms suggest that borrowers and bank lenders face increased market power by implementing different earnings management and monitoring practices. Our documentary evidence suggests that since the banking market deregulation, restrictions on inter- and intra-state banking and branching have been removed, with banks gaining more power and the market becoming more consolidated. Using a large sample of U.S. listed firms from 1995 to 2019, we find a favourable impact of bank market power on corporate financial reporting quality, primarily driven by heightened monitoring by banks with greater market power, supporting the monitoring-stringent conjecture. In addition, this positive relationship is more pronounced among firms heavily reliant on local banks. Our results are robust to a rich set of tests, such as using alternative measurements for financial reporting quality and bank market power, including macroeconomic factors, and considering drastic changes in the bank market structure. We also address the endogeneity concerns and test the robustness of our key findings in a loan syndication setting. Our research suggests that facing increased bank market concentration and power, firms must pay additional attention to their financial reporting, which is widely used to access external finance.","wordCount":241,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Biao Mi","Luqiao Zhang","Liang Han","Yun Shen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102530","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-81222eafe09006b2","title":"The power of whispers: A theory of rumor, communication, and revolution","abstract":"We study how rumors mobilize individuals who take collective action. Rumors may or may not be informative, but they create public topics on which people can exchange their views. Individuals with diverse private information rationally evaluate the informativeness of rumors about regime strength. A rumor against the regime can coordinate a larger mass of attackers if individuals can discuss its veracity than if they cannot. Communication can be so effective that a rumor can have an even greater impact on mobilization than when the same story is fully believed by everybody. However, an extreme rumor can backfire and discourage mobilization.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Heng Chen","Yang Lu","Wing Suen"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12149","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-812520b75ac95563","title":"The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market","abstract":"We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty, guided by a theoretical model of government policy choice. To isolate political uncertainty, we exploit its variation around national elections and global summits. We find that political uncertainty is priced in the equity option market as predicted by theory. Options whose lives span political events tend to be more expensive. Such options provide valuable protection against the price, variance, and tail risks associated with political events. This protection is more valuable in a weaker economy and amid higher political uncertainty. The effects of political uncertainty spill over across countries.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Bryan Kelly","Ľuboš Pástor","Pietro Veronesi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12406","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81279d5fc39e259a","title":"Racial inequality in frictional labor markets: Evidence from minimum wages","abstract":"They lead to better and more stable jobs for black workers. We provide the first causal analysis of how state and federal minimum wage policies in the U.S. have affected labor market frictions and racial wage gaps. Using stacked event studies , binned difference-in-differences estimators, within-person analyses and classic panel methods, we find that minimum wages increased wages of black workers between 16 and 64% more than among white workers and reduced the overall black-white wage gap by 10% (and by 56% among workers most affected by the policies). Racial differences in initial wages cannot explain this differential effect. Rather, minimum wages expand job opportunities for black workers more than for white workers. We present a model with labor market frictions in which minimum wages expand the job search radius of workers who do not own automobiles and who live farther from jobs. Our causal results using the ACS show that minimum wages increase commuting via automobile among black workers but not among white workers, supporting our model. Minimum wages also reduce racial gaps in separations and hires, further suggesting the policies especially enhance job opportunities for black workers.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Jesse Wursten","Michael Reich"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102344","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-813bc68742796885","title":"Advanced Technologies and Worker Voice","abstract":"The interplay between labour institutions and firm‐level adoption of new technologies such as robotics and other advanced digital tools remains poorly understood. Using a cross‐sectional sample of more than 20,000 European establishments, we document a positive association between shop‐floor employee representation (ER) and utilization of emerging technologies. We explore mechanisms driving this correlation by exploiting rich information on the role played by ER in relation to well‐defined decision areas of management, such as work organization, dismissals, training and working time. In addition, we conduct a quantitative case study using a panel of Italian firms and exploiting size‐contingent policy rules governing the operation of ER bodies in the context of a local‐randomization regression discontinuity design. The analysis suggests a positive effect of ER on investments in advanced technologies around the firm size cut‐off, although results are sensitive to type of technology and specification choices. We also document positive effects on training and process innovation, and no evidence of changes in composition of employment. Our findings cast doubt on the idea that ER discourages technology adoption. Rather, ER seems to influence workplace practices that enhance the complementarity between labour and new advanced technologies.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Filippo Belloc","Gabriel Burdín","Fabio Landini"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12446","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8144cc997a6392e0","title":"Price regulation in two-sided markets: Empirical evidence from debit cards","abstract":"This paper provides empirical evidence of a well-known theoretical concern that market failures in two-sided markets are hard to identify and correct. We study the reactions of banks, merchants, and consumers to Dodd-Frank’s Durbin Amendment that lowered interchange fees on debit card transactions. Banks recouped a significant portion of their losses by charging consumers for products that they previously provided for free on the subsidized side of the two-sided market. The accelerated adoption of credit cards with higher interchange fees likely diminished—if not eliminated—merchants’ savings. These effects impede the regulation’s stated objective of enhancing consumers’ welfare through lower retail prices.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Vladimir Mukharlyamov","Natasha Sarin"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104094","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8145219c8a32392b","title":"Pollution-induced migration and environmental policy in an economic geography model","abstract":"This paper develops a two-region New Economic Geography model with polluting firms subject to regional abatement policies. Pollution accumulates in the local environment and decreases the welfare of the population. We show that environmental policies have two opposing effects on welfare: they reduce nominal wages and increase environmental quality. If environmental regulations are equally strict in the two regions then population, pollution and wages tend to converge as trade becomes more open. If the two regions have different but unambitious environmental regulations, firms agglomerate in the laxer region, which becomes a pollution haven. However, a sufficiently far-reaching environmental policy in one of the regions raises its environmental quality, increasing its attractiveness for population and firms, and the emergence of a pollution haven is avoided. We also show that if the natural absorption rate of pollution is low, the environment recovers slowly, population and firms move between regions in a pollute-and-flee cycle and no static equilibrium is reached.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["María Victoria Caballero","María Pilar Martínez‐García","José Rodolfo Morales"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101420","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8145482265739304","title":"Testing methods to enhance longevity awareness","abstract":"Many people do not understand the concepts of life expectancy and longevity risk, potentially leading them to under-save for retirement or to not purchase longevity insurance, which in turn could reduce wellbeing at older ages. We investigate alternative ways to increase the salience of both concepts, allowing us to assess whether these change peoples’ perceptions and financial decision making. Using randomly-assigned vignettes providing subjects with information about either life expectancy or longevity, we show that merely prompting people to think about financial decisions changes their perceptions regarding subjective survival probabilities. Moreover, this information also boosts respondents’ interest in saving and demand for longevity insurance. In particular, longevity information influences both subjective survival probabilities and financial decisions, while life expectancy information influences only annuity choices. We provide some evidence that many people are simply unaware of longevity risk.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Abigail Hurwitz","Olivia S. Mitchell","Orly Sade"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.10.014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8146a874e854b7ae","title":"Optimal monitoring and control under state uncertainty: Application to lionfish management","abstract":"State variables in many renewable resource management problems, such as the abundance of a fish stock, are imperfectly observed over time. In systems characterized by state uncertainty, decision makers often invest in monitoring to learn about the level of a stock. We develop a stochastic bioeconomic model of marine invasive species management under state uncertainty. The decision maker in our model simultaneously evaluates optimal investment in monitoring and population control. Using a recently-devised method for solving continuous-state Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), we find that the ability to learn through monitoring can alter the role of population control in the optimal policy function, for example by reducing control intensity in favor of monitoring. Optimal monitoring depends on the management context, including in our application lionfish population structure. The rich transient dynamics of our model depend critically on the relationship between the initial conditions for information and invader abundance.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["David M. Kling","James N. Sanchirico","Paul L. Fackler"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.01.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-814f1971fe2c67e4","title":"Determinants, persistence, and dynamics of energy poverty: An empirical assessment using German household survey data","abstract":"We examine the determinants, persistence, and dynamics of energy poverty using seven waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Employing a dynamic random effects probit model we find evidence of genuine state dependence effects in energy poverty with households being up to 7.5% more likely to face energy poverty if they were energy poor in the previous period. Energy poverty is associated with household composition, educational attainment, labour force status, energy-inefficient housing, and the heating system in place. We document common predictors of perceived and objectively measured energy poverty. Our results suggest that energy poverty in Germany is mostly a transitory state, with 78% of the energy poor households in our sample only temporarily facing energy poverty.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Katharina Drescher","Benedikt Janzen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105433","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8153fc41cc55afdc","title":"Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms","abstract":"This paper estimates the incidence of state corporate taxes on the welfare of workers, landowners, and firm owners using variation in state corporate tax rates and apportionment rules. We develop a spatial equilibrium model with imperfectly mobile firms and workers. Firm owners may earn profits and be inframarginal in their location choices due to differences in location-specific productivities. We use the reduced-form effects of tax changes to identify and estimate incidence as well as the structural parameters governing these impacts. In contrast to standard open economy models, firm owners bear roughly 40 percent of the incidence, while workers and landowners bear 30–35 percent and 25–30 percent, respectively.","wordCount":107,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato","Owen Zidar"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141702","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81580109bbf2a290","title":"Quarterly GDP for Ireland since 1950","abstract":"We construct estimates of quarterly GDP (and GNP) for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our estimates exploit the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of turning points in the Irish economy than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Seán Kenny","Rebecca Stuart"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101766","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-815acd1a302d16af","title":"Austerity, welfare cuts and hate crime: Evidence from the UK's age of austerity","abstract":"From 2010 the UK entered an ‘age of austerity’, with major cuts to welfare payments. We study the link between these cuts and increases in hate crimes. Using a panel of 313 Community Safety Partnerships areas in England and Wales, we show that for each £100 loss per working age adult, racially or religiously motivated crimes rose by approximately 5-6% in 2013/14 and 2014/15. These effects are large given a mean loss of £450 per working age adult and survive multiple robustness checks. Using individual data, we find no evidence that these crimes are driven by increased anger of the benefit recipients per se but find evidence for a decline in community cohesion.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Kerry Bray","Nils Braakmann","John Wildman"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103439","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-815fa6061020d702","title":"Valuing urban nature through life satisfaction: The consistency of GIS and survey indicators of nature","abstract":"This study estimates the relationships between green and blue nature and the life satisfaction (LS) of residents in the six largest cities in the Netherlands to monetize the value of urban nature. The analysis uses both survey and geographic information system (GIS) data on the availability of nature to examine the influence of this methodological choice on the valuation outcomes. The main findings are that different indicators of the availability of nature consistently reveal positive relationships with reported LS, which implies substantial marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP) values for urban nature. Valuation results based on the survey data indicate higher MWTPs compared to GIS data on nature availability, which may be explained by the more disaggregated data from surveys on the availability and use of nature.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["S.P. de Vries","German Alvarez","W. J. Wouter Botzen","M. Bočkarjova"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101406","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-817a875c2c9a4a93","title":"Individual pension risk preference elicitation and collective asset allocation with heterogeneity","abstract":"Collectively organized pension plans must increasingly demonstrate that the risk preferences of their members are adequately reflected in the plans’ asset allocations. However, whether funds should elicit individual members’ risk preferences to achieve this goal, or whether they can rely on other indicators, such as socio-demographics, remains unclear. To address this question, we apply a tailored augmented lottery choice method to elicit individual pension income risk preferences from 7,894 members from five different pension plans. The results show that member risk preferences are strongly heterogeneous and can only partially be predicted from individual and plan characteristics. Differences in risk preference imply different optimal asset allocations. We find large welfare losses for heterogeneous members in pension plans with their current asset allocation because these allocations are safer than implied by members’ preferences. We provide a framework for pension plans to gauge the need to elicit risk preferences among their members.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Gosse Alserda","Benedict G. C. Dellaert","Laurens Swinkels","Fieke van der Lecq"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.02.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81888053bf15a941","title":"Retail Markups and Discount-Store Entry","abstract":"“Hard discounters” are retail formats that set retail food prices even lower than existing discount formats, such as Walmart and Target. Offering limited assortments and focusing on store-brands, these formats promise to change the competitive landscape of food retailing. In this paper, we study the effect of entry of one hard-discount format on markups earned by existing retail stores, focusing on several important grocery markets across the Eastern U.S. Focusing on establishment-level profitability, we estimate store-level markups using the production-side approach of De Loecker and Warzynski (Am Econ Rev 102(6):2437–2471). We find that hard-discounter entry reduced markups for incumbment retailers by 7.3% relative to markups in non-entry markets. These results indicate that the net effect of hard-discounter entry reduces the overall level of store profitability—despite the somewhat higher sales realized by incumbent retailers.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Lauren Chenarides","Miguel I. Gómez","Timothy J. Richards","Koichi Yonezawa"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09926-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81922b8f80ab306f","title":"The impact of absent co-workers on productivity in teams","abstract":"We study how workers in production teams are affected by the temporary absence and replacement of a co-worker using data on injuries in the National Hockey League. We distinguish between the absence of a substitute worker, who performs the same tasks as the focal workers, and the absence of a complementary co-workers, who performs complementary tasks to the focal workers. When either type of co-worker is absent, remaining workers produce less output per working time. In the case of a substitute absentee, they compensate for this by increasing their working time at the expense of the (less able) replacement worker. This renders the output loss per remaining substitute worker to be insignificant. For the absence of a complementary worker, the productivity loss leads to a loss of total output per worker, because remaining workers cannot take over the absent co-worker’s tasks.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Sam Hoey","Thomas Peeters","Jan C. van Ours"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","J","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102400","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-819442e2e6198df2","title":"Discontinuity in care: Practice closures among primary care providers and patient health care utilization","abstract":"We evaluate the consequences for patients of being matched to a new primary care provider due to practice closures. Using an event study and population-level data of patients and providers in Denmark, we find that the transition between providers is smooth; among re-matched patients, there is little change in primary care utilization at the extensive margin. Second, we document a 17% increase in fee-for-service per visit and a large increase in the probability that the patient initiates drug therapy targeting chronic and underdiagnosed diseases (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes). Additionally, the re-matched patients are more likely to be admitted to inpatient care for these diseases. The increase in therapeutic initiation is not primarily because the new providers are relatively predisposed to prescribing these drugs. Instead, it appears that when patients match to new providers, there is a consequential reassessment of patients' medical needs which leads to the initiation of new treatment.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Marianne Simonsen","Lars Skipper","Niels Skipper","Peter Thingholm"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102551","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81999a45f62372e6","title":"Why Don't We Agree? Evidence from a Social Network of Investors","abstract":"We study sources of investor disagreement using sentiment of investors from a social media investing platform, combined with information on the users' investment approaches (e.g., technical, fundamental). We examine how much of overall disagreement is driven by different information sets versus differential interpretation of information by studying disagreement within and across investment approaches. Overall disagreement is evenly split between both sources of disagreement, but within‐group disagreement is more tightly related to trading volume than cross‐group disagreement. Although both sources of disagreement are important, our findings suggest that information differences are more important for trading than differences across market approaches.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["J. Anthony Cookson","Marina Niessner"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12852","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81a5b11f9cfc1321","title":"The timing of communication and retaliation in bargaining: An experimental study","abstract":"We conduct an experiment to investigate how the timing of communication affects bargaining outcomes and dynamics in a majoritarian, sequential bargaining game . Our data show that allowing for free-form written communication at the proposal-making stage leads to higher proposer power and minimum winning coalitions compared to when communication is possible at the voting stage only. Absent communication, outcomes fall in between both communication timings. Voting patterns reveal that the timing of communication affects how subjects evaluate proposals, as they are more likely to vote in favor under proposal-stage communication than under voting-stage communication all else equal. In general, communication affects bargaining dynamics in that voters retaliate more strongly against failed proposers, compared to the no communication baseline. We provide a detailed description of communication content, the medium utilized to communicate, and how the volume and timing of messages affects outcomes. Our results underscore the importance of an in-depth analysis of processes and dynamics to understand bargaining behavior, because even when communication may lead to outcomes that resemble equilibrium, the strategies employed by subjects need not.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Andrzej Baranski","Nicholas Haas"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102621","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-81a5f0f7549d4a4f","title":"The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks","abstract":"This work reports the results of two online experiments with a general-population sample examining the performance of different tasks for the elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997), the standard choice-list method of Holt and Laury (2002), and the multi-alternative procedure of Eckel and Grossman (2002) and evaluate their performance in terms of the number of correctly-predicted binary decisions in a set of out-of-sample lottery choices. There are limited differences between the tasks in this sense, and performance is modest. Second, I included three additional budget-choice tasks (selection of a lottery from a linear budget set) where optimal decisions should have been corner solutions, and find that a large majority of participants provided interior solutions instead, casting doubts on people’s understanding of tasks of this type. Finally, I investigate whether these two results depend on cognitive ability, numerical literacy, and education. While optimal choices in budget-choice tasks are related to numerical literacy and cognitive ability, the predictive performance of the risk-elicitation tasks is unaffected.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Michele Garagnani"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09408-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81b11fa462cd2000","title":"Gender and willingness to compete for high stakes","abstract":"We examine gender differences in willingness to compete, using data from a TV game show where in each episode the winner of an elimination competition in expectation wins hundreds of thousands of euros. At several stages of the elimination competition, contestants face a choice between continuing to compete and opting out in exchange for a comparatively modest prize. When there is no strategic interaction embedded in this choice, we observe the well-known pattern that women compete less than men, but this difference derives entirely from women avoiding competition against men. When there is strategic interaction and contestants should factor in their opponents’ willingness to compete, women again tend to avoid competing against men; men then seem to anticipate the lower competitiveness of female opponents, as evidenced by their greater propensity to compete against women. Ability differences are unlikely to explain these results. Our findings show that the gender difference in willingness to compete that is well-documented in the experimental economics literature also occurs in a quasi-experimental real-world setting with exceptionally high stakes, and underline the importance of the gender of competitors.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Thomas Buser","Martijn J. van den Assem","Dennie van Dolder"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.12.016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-81b31b328a84c5f8","title":"From patriarchy to partnership: Gender equality and household finance","abstract":"We obtain a model-driven measure of gender norms on intra-household financial decision making by leveraging dramatic variation across Italian cohorts and regions in the gender of the household head. We use these estimates to identify the effects of gender parity on household financial decisions. More egalitarian norms increase household participation in financial markets, equity holdings, asset diversification, and returns on investments . This evidence suggests that gender roles can have large economic costs . Consistent with this view, we show that patriarchal norms began receding in the early 1990s, when a pension reform made it too costly to comply with traditional roles.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Luigi Guiso","Luana Zaccaria"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.01.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81bbcbe880a07f78","title":"Building State Capacity: Evidence from Biometric Smartcards in India","abstract":"Antipoverty programs in developing countries are often difficult to implement; in particular, many governments lack the capacity to deliver payments securely to targeted beneficiaries. We evaluate the impact of biometrically authenticated payments infrastructure (“Smartcards”) on beneficiaries of employment (NREGS) and pen sion (SSP) programs in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, using a large-scale experiment that randomized the rollout of Smartcards over 157 subdistricts and 19 million people. We find that, while incompletely implemented, the new system delivered a faster, more predictable, and less corrupt NREGS payments process without adversely affecting program access. For each of these outcomes, treatment group distributions first-order stochastically dominated those of the control group. The investment was cost-effective, as time savings to NREGS beneficiaries alone were equal to the cost of the intervention, and there was also a significant reduction in the “leakage” of funds between the government and beneficiaries in both NREGS and SSP programs. Beneficiaries overwhelmingly preferred the new system for both programs. Overall, our results suggest that investing in secure payments infrastructure can significantly enhance “state capacity” to implement welfare programs in developing countries.","wordCount":182,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Karthik Muralidharan","Paul Niehaus","Sandip Sukhtankar"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141346","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81bc84c8da444638","title":"How should the use of nonrenewables be taxed under a public budget constraint?","abstract":"Most developed countries will be facing severe public budget constraints. We examine how extraction or use of nonrenewable resources should be taxed when governments need to collect commodity tax revenues. Moreover, we show how our results can be directly used to indicate how carbon taxation of nonrenewable energy sources should be increased in the presence of public-revenue needs. The obtained tax formula is an augmented, dynamic version of the standard Ramsey taxation rule. It distorts developed reserves, which are reduced, and their depletion, which is slowed down, going further in the direction prescribed for the resolution of the climate externality. We present a simple calibrated application of our results to illustrate how carbon taxation of oil should be strongly augmented, and the incidence of this adjustment on oil use and tax revenues.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Julien Daubanes","Pierre Lasserre"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101375","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81c0ca93b860ccd8","title":"The 2008 short-selling ban’s impact on tail risk","abstract":"We examine how the 2008 U.S. short-selling ban on the stocks of financial institutions impacted their equity tail risk. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-difference regressions, we show that the ban was not effective in restoring financial stability as measured by the stocks’ dynamic Marginal Expected Shortfall. In contrast, especially large institutions, those who were most vulnerable to market downturns in the preban period, as well as those equities with associated put option contracts, experienced sharp increases in their exposure to market downturns during the ban period, contrary to regulators’ intentions.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Jonas Bartl","Denefa Bostandzic","Felix Irresberger","Gregor Weiß","Ruomei Yang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101532","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-81cd8b9e01de5a1e","title":"Immigrants and the Making of America","abstract":"We study the effects of European immigration to the U.S. during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1920) on economic prosperity. Exploiting cross-county variation in immigration that arises from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and of the gradual expansion of the railway network, we find that counties with more historical immigration have higher income, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment today. The long-run effects seem to capture the persistence of short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Sandra Sequeira","Nathan Nunn","Nancy Qian"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz003","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81cfe59f40bf4fad","title":"Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State","abstract":"A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of −8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21","wordCount":149,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Laura Bakkensen","Xiaozhou Ding","Lala Ma"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12327","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81d3d6295e7f190f","title":"Identification Based on Difference‐in‐Differences Approaches with Multiple Treatments","abstract":"This paper discusses identification based on difference‐in‐differences (DiD) approaches with multiple treatments. It shows that an appropriate adaptation of the common trend assumption underlying the DiD strategy for the comparison of two treatments restricts the possibility of effect heterogeneity for at least one of the treatments. The required assumption of effect homogeneity is likely to be violated because of non‐random assignment to treatment based on both observables and unobservables. However, this paper shows that, under certain conditions, the DiD estimate comparing two treatments identifies a lower bound in absolute values on the average treatment effect on the treated compared to the unobserved non‐treatment state, even if effect homogeneity is violated. This is possible if the treatments have ordered treatment effects, that is, in expectation, the effects of both treatments compared to no treatment have the same sign, and one treatment has a stronger effect than the other treatment on the respective recipients. Such assumptions are plausible if treatments are ordered or vary in intensity.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Hans Fricke"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12178","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-81d515c6d88745f3","title":"The role of R&D in the effectiveness of renewable energy determinants: A spatial econometric analysis","abstract":"This study investigates the effects of renewable energy determinants on various renewable energy resources. The empirical results are based on data from 31 mainly Asia-Pacific countries observed from 2000 to 2018. Different diagnostic tests indicate the existence of spatial effects in the renewable energy model. The spatial Durbin model with the time-period and spatial fixed effects was selected for analysis. Scrutinizing empirical studies suggest a lack of theoretical consensus on how renewable energy determinants work. By examining how R&D affects different renewable energy resources, this study attempts to fill the research gap. In addition, the R&D environment is an important factor in determining the effects of GDP and the development of financial markets and institutions. R&D enhancement reduces the impacts of market expansion on hydropower; however, such effects are incremental for solar, wind, bioenergy, and geothermal energy resources. In an environment with a low level of R&D, financial development has positive effects on hydropower generation and negative impacts on other renewable energy types. However, the expansion of R&D expands reverses such effects gradually. The different results are obtained for different countries at different levels of R&D. Furthermore, trade openness has been a positive factor in the development of hydropower, solar and geothermal energy resources. The results also revealed the negative (positive) impacts of GDP per capita in neighboring countries with a higher (lower) level of R&D on the development of renewable energy of the origin country.","wordCount":236,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Mohsen Khezri","Almas Heshmati","Mehdi Khodaei"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105287","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81e8c9ab40c5677b","title":"Pricing of sustainability-linked bonds","abstract":"We examine the pricing of sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs), where the cash flows depend on the bond issuer achieving one or more Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) goals. Investors are willing to accept a 1–2bps lower yield due to the bond’s ESG label, providing evidence of investors caring about environmental impact. Furthermore, we find the average probability of missing the target is 14%–39% so firms set ESG targets that are easy to reach. We find that the SLB market is efficient: the prices of SLBs depend strongly on the size of the potential penalty and there is no evidence of mispricing. Finally, our results suggest that SLBs serve as financial hedges against ESG risk.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Peter Feldhütter","Kristoffer Halskov","Arthur Krebbers"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103944","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81f3c65a7df70675","title":"Vocational training for unemployed youth in Latvia","abstract":"We analyze the effectiveness of a vocational training (VT) programme targeting unemployed youth in Latvia, contributing to the scant literature on active labour market policies in transition countries. The programme we analyse is part of the Youth Guarantee scheme (2014-2020), the largest action launched by the European Union to combat youth unemployment after the 2008 financial crisis. Although the programme was targeted to youths aged between 15 and 29, priority was given to those younger than 25 years of age. We exploit this eligibility rule in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design framework to estimate the impact of VT participation on the probability of being employed and gross monthly labour income at given dates after the training. Using rich administrative data, we find that the age priority rule increased programme participation for the youngest group by about 10 percentage points. However, participation in the programme did not lead to statistically significant positive effects in labour market outcomes. We argue that this result could be due to some specific characteristics of the programme, namely the voucher system (potentially inducing lock-in effects) and the type of training (classroom instead of on-the-job training). Moreover, the programme was targeted at ex-ante low-employable individuals (e.g. without vocational qualifications), a fact that is confirmed by our analysis of the characteristics of the population of compliers with the age priority rule.","wordCount":223,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Massimiliano Bratti","Corinna Ghirelli","Enkelejda Havari","Giulia Santangelo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00877-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-81f6023352e0123b","title":"Credit creation under multiple banking regulations: The impact of balance sheet diversity on money supply","abstract":"Since the recent financial crisis along with more concentration of banking supervision, we have stepped into a new regulatory regime where multiple regulations are at play simultaneously. In this paper, we study the collective impacts of multiple regulations on credit creation in a heterogeneous banking system. Each single regulation imposes a constraint on credit creation for each bank, while with multiple regulations, only the most stringent one plays the determinant role on money supply. For the homogeneous banking system with identical balance sheets, they share the same binding regulation. In contrast, for the heterogeneous banking system with diverse balance sheets, the binding regulation for each bank may be different from other's. Those banks, who are bound by different regulatory constraints from homogeneous banks, would bring about an overall reduction in money supply, because those binding regulations impose a lower capacity (compared with the one in the case of homogeneous banks) for the banks to extend their balance sheets in this condition. We put forward an agent-based model of commercial banks integrated with two processes: credit creation and fund transfer, to demonstrate the reduction effect. The results facilitate the understandings of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via banks and its interaction with prudential regulations.","wordCount":204,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Xiaoyun Xing","Mingsong Wang","Yougui Wang","H. Eugene Stanley"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.030","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-81fdcd9f0206d5e0","title":"Strategic Information Acquisition and Transmission","abstract":"This paper explores the implications of costly information acquisition in a strategic communication setting. We show that equilibrium decisions based on a biased expert's advice may be more precise than when information is directly acquired by the decision maker, even if the expert is not more efficient than the decision maker at acquiring information. This result bears important implications for organization design. Communication by an expert to a decision maker may often outperform delegation of the decision-making authority to the expert, as well as centralization by the decision maker of both information acquisition and decision-making authority.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Rossella Argenziano","Sergei Severinov","Francesco Squintani"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140135","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-821d79f2495d89b3","title":"Bounding equilibrium payoffs in repeated games with private monitoring","abstract":"We provide a simple sufficient condition for the existence of a recursive upper bound on (the Pareto frontier of) the sequential equilibrium payoff set at a fixed discount factor in two-player repeated games with imperfect private monitoring. The bounding set is the sequential equilibrium payoff set with perfect monitoring and a mediator. We show that this bounding set admits a simple recursive characterization, which nonetheless necessarily involves the use of private strategies. Under our condition, this set describes precisely those payoff vectors that arise in equilibrium for some private monitoring structure if either nonstationary monitoring or communication is allowed.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Takuo Sugaya","Alexander Wolitzky"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2270","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-82282865b6c7630a","title":"<i>EURQ</i>: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index","abstract":"Measuring economic uncertainty is extremely important for evaluating its role in economic activity. Nevertheless, measuring uncertainty is a difficult task since we do not know when economic agents perceive uncertainty and which type of uncertainty affects them. This paper introduces the economic uncertainty related queries ( EURQ ) index, computed for both the USA and Italy, which measures economic, political and normative uncertainty through large‐scale searches on the internet. We show that the EURQ index captures economic agents’ need for information in response to uncertainty shocks. Moreover, we show that this need for information is not just curiosity triggered by press coverage but rather captures individuals’ genuine interest, particularly in specific topics subject to uncertainty. Hence the EURQ index can be exploited fruitfully to measure the level of uncertainty perceived by economic agents and to assess the role of specific types of uncertainty in economic activity.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Maria Elena Bontempi","Michele Frigeri","Roberto Golinelli","Matteo Squadrani"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12372","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-823cdbfeb042fa79","title":"Can school centralization foster human capital accumulation? A quasi‐experiment from early twentieth‐century Italy","abstract":"This article shows that a shift towards a more centralized school system can benefit countries that are characterized by poor levels of human capital and large regional disparities in education. In 1911, Italy moved from a fully decentralized primary school system towards centralization through the Daneo‐Credaro Reform. The design of the Reform allows us to compare treated municipalities with those that retained school autonomy. Our quasi‐experiment, based on propensity score matching (PSM), shows that centralization substantially increased the pace of human capital accumulation. Treated municipalities were characterized by a 0.43 percentage‐point premium on the average annual growth of literacy between 1911 and 1921. We discuss some of the channels through which the new legislation affected primary schooling and literacy, with important implications for long‐term economic growth.","wordCount":126,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Gabriele Cappelli","Michelangelo Vasta"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12877","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-82442443470d3a94","title":"Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions","abstract":"Recent theories and narratives highlight the potential role of associative recall in driving overreaction in expectations and market behavior. Based on a simple model, we test this idea through a series of experiments in which news are communicated with memorable contexts. Because the experimental participants predominantly remember those past news that get cued by new information, their beliefs about fundamentals strongly overreact. In a betting market experiment, associative recall translates into overreaction in market prices, which makes realized prices too extreme. Our results highlight the importance of associative memory for beliefs and financial decisions.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Benjamin Enke","Frederik Schwerter","Florian Zimmermann"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103853","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-824964fa89bcd090","title":"Public Insurance and Mortality: Evidence from Medicaid Implementation","abstract":"This paper provides new evidence that Medicaid’s introduction reduced infant and child mortality in the 1960s and 1970s. Mandated coverage of all cash welfare recipients induced substantial cross-state variation in the share of children immediately eligible for the program. Before Medicaid, higher- and lower-eligibility states had similar infant and child mortality trends. After Medicaid, public insurance utilization increased and mortality fell more rapidly among children and infants in high-Medicaid-eligibility states. Mortality among nonwhite children on Medicaid fell by 20 percent, leading to a reduction in aggregate nonwhite child mortality rates of 11 percent.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Andrew Goodman-Bacon"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/695528","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-824c6a44c24dcf4e","title":"Incentives for Information Production in Markets where Prices Affect Real Investment","abstract":"We analyze information production incentives for traders in financial markets, when firms condition investment decisions on information revealed through stock prices. We show that traders’ private value of information about a firm’s investment project increases with the ex ante likelihood the project will be undertaken. This generates an informational amplification effect of shocks to firm value. Information production by traders may exhibit strategic complementarities for projects that would not be undertaken in the absence of positive news from the stock market. A small decline in fundamentals can lead to a market breakdown where information production ceases, and investment and firm value collapse. Our theory sheds light on how productivity shocks are amplified over the business cycle.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["James Dow","Itay Goldstein","Alexander Guembel"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-825933c5574ed3d3","title":"Improving children's foundational learning through community-school participation: Experimental evidence from rural India","abstract":"Our study makes a contribution to decentralization of governance to local entities and the potential of parent-teacher involvement. Due to almost-universal enrolment in primary schools, policy focus has shifted towards improving learning outcomes. One important way of doing this is to enhance accountability, especially in the case of public provision of education. In this context, we examine the effectiveness of two different strategies of increasing accountability – one involving only the community, and the other which builds collaboration between the schools and the community. We implement a randomized controlled trial in 400 villages in India, and find: (i) both interventions led to a significant enhancement in children's foundational literacy and numeracy skills, (ii) we observed limited differences between the impacts of the two interventions, and (iii) the community-school intervention exhibited significantly greater effects when parents reported visiting the school, underscoring the vital role of parent-teacher interactions and their shared responsibility in shaping children's learning outcomes. In terms of mechanism, we find that direct learning inputs play a major role in mediating the observed effects of both interventions. Additionally, parent-teacher engagement and children's studying habits outside of the school are potential important channels through which the observed effects operate in the community-school intervention.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Deepak Kumar","Naveen Sunder","Ricardo Sabatés","Wilima Wadhwa"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102615","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8278a8a2a2bcf26c","title":"Presidential Address: Aspirations, Social Norms, and Development","abstract":"I study the role of aspirations in economic development drawing on the existing theoretical and empirical literature and provide some new empirical findings using individual level data on aspirations across countries. After discussing the relationship between aspirations and individual investments, I present estimates on the correlates and determinants of students’ aspirations in the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment data. I focus in particular on socioeconomic status, inequality, and institutional features that lead to horizontal segregation of education systems. I then address the question of whether and how aspirations can be changed, covering recent policy interventions that leverage psychological factors, stereotypes and norms, and material endowments.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Eliana La Ferrara"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz057","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-829e1c1a55ec6d3e","title":"How stimulative are low real interest rates for intangible capital?","abstract":"We study theoretically and empirically how the increase in the intensity of intangible capital in production in recent decades affects the sensitivity of investment to interest rates. In contrast to tangible capital, intangible capital has low collateral value and must be financed in a larger part with accumulated corporate savings, especially in more financially constrained firms and for more lumpy investments. High-intangibles firms are, therefore, more likely to be net savers in equilibrium, and for such firms low interest rates are not as stimulative as for high-tangibles firms. We show in a realistically calibrated model that the rise of intangible capital substantially dampens the positive effects of low interest rates on investment because of this mechanism, increasing the misallocation of resources. We find strong empirical support for this effect by studying the investment decisions of U.S. firms.","wordCount":137,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Andrea Caggese","Ander Pérez-Orive"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103987","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-82a824d0fe7427a2","title":"Housing affordability during the urban transition in Spain","abstract":"During the decades prior to the Civil War, Spain experienced a rapid process of urbanization, which was accompanied by the demographic transition and sizeable rural–urban migrations. This article investigates how urban housing markets reacted to these far‐reaching changes, which increased demand for dwellings. To this end, this study employs a new hedonic index of real housing prices and constructs a cross‐regional panel dataset of rents and housing price fundamentals. This new evidence indicates that rents were not a significant financial burden on low‐income families and, hence, housing was affordable for the working classes. The article also shows that families’ access to new homes was facilitated by a sizeable growth in the housing supply. Substantial investments in urban infrastructure and the institutional framework enabled the construction of new homes at affordable prices. Our results suggest that housing problems were not as pervasive during the urban transition as the literature often seems to claim.","wordCount":152,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Juan Carmona","Markus Lampe","Joan R. Rosés"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12418","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-82c356c529d27ffb","title":"Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressive models","abstract":"Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are the main work-horse model for macroeconomic forecasting, and provide a framework for the analysis of complex dynamics that are present between macroeconomic variables. Whether a classical or a Bayesian approach is adopted, most VAR models are linear with Gaussian innovations. This can limit the model’s ability to explain the relationships in macroeconomic series. We propose a nonparametric VAR model that allows for nonlinearity in the conditional mean, heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance, and non-Gaussian innovations. Our approach differs to that of previous studies by modelling the stationary and transition densities using Bayesian nonparametric methods. Our Bayesian nonparametric VAR (BayesNP-VAR) model is applied to US and UK macroeconomic time series, and compared to other Bayesian VAR models. We show that BayesNP-VAR is a flexible model that is able to account for nonlinear relationships as well as heteroscedas- ticity in the data. In terms of short-run out-of-sample forecasts, we show that BayesNP-VAR predictively outperforms competing models.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Maria Kalli","Jim E. Griffin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-82dce156202c4664","title":"Information, technology, and market rewards: Incentivizing aflatoxin control in Ghana","abstract":"The quality of agricultural products can affect both farm incomes and the healthfulness of farm families’ diets. However, many quality attributes are hard to observe, making it difficult for farmers to learn how to improve the quality of their crops. Lack of premium pass-through and the cost of quality-enhancing inputs are additional barriers to improving output quality. In this paper, we examine the relative importance of each of these barriers to smallholder adoption of technologies for reducing aflatoxin, a common food safety hazard. We conduct a randomized controlled trial in northern Ghana over the course of two seasons to test how three interventions affect adoption of practices that reduce aflatoxin risk as well as aflatoxin levels in groundnuts: (1) training on aflatoxin and its prevention, (2) distribution of free drying sheets, and (3) a price premium for groundnuts that comply with aflatoxin regulations. We find that training farmers substantially improves post-harvest practices. Drying sheet distribution and, to a lesser extent, the premium price offer lead to further improvements, including crowding-in of non-subsidized practices. We find substantial corresponding decreases in aflatoxin levels from drying sheet provision in the study region with high non-negligible background aflatoxin levels. Impacts are stronger for households with higher aflatoxin at baseline, more members, and young children.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Nicholas Magnan","Vivian Hoffmann","Nelson Opoku","Gissele Gajate Garrido","Daniel Akwasi Kanyam"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102620","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-82e50481a10b7230","title":"Common genetic effects on risk-taking preferences and choices","abstract":"Although prior research has shown that risk-taking preferences and choices are correlated across many domains, there is a dearth of research investigating whether these correlations are primarily the result of genetic or environmental factors. We examine the extent to which common genetic factors account for the association between general risk-taking preferences and domain-specific risk-taking preferences, and between general risk-taking preferences and risk taking choices in financial investments, stock market participation and business formation. Using data from 1898 monozygotic (MZ) and 1344 same-sex dizygotic (DZ) twins, we find that general risk-taking shares a common genetic component with domain-specific risk-taking preferences and risk-taking choices.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Nicos Nicolaou","Scott Shane"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09316-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-82f8681b403801de","title":"School choice with asymmetric information: Priority design and the curse of acceptance","abstract":"We generalize standard school choice models to allow for interdependent preferences and differentially informed students. We show that, in general, the commonly used deferred acceptance mechanism is no longer strategy‐proof, the outcome is not stable, and may make less informed students worse off. We attribute these results to a curse of acceptance . However, we also show that if priorities are designed appropriately, positive results are recovered: equilibrium strategies are simple, the outcome is stable, and less informed students are protected from the curse of acceptance. Our results have implications for the current debate over priority design in school choice.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Andrew Kloosterman","Peter Troyan"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3621","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-831e1839af87df6e","title":"Poverty, pollution, and mortality: The 1918 influenza pandemic in a developing German economy","abstract":"The paper provides a detailed analysis of excess mortality during the ‘Spanish Flu’ in a developing German economy and the effect of poverty and air pollution on pandemic mortality. The empirical analysis is based on a difference‐in‐differences approach using annual all‐cause mortality statistics at the parish level in the Kingdom of Württemberg. The paper complements the existing literature on urban pandemic severity with comprehensive evidence from mostly rural parishes. The results show that middle‐ and high‐income parishes had a significantly lower increase in mortality rates than low‐income parishes. Moreover, the mortality rate during the 1918 influenza pandemic was significantly higher in highly polluted parishes compared with least polluted parishes. Furthermore, the paper provides a detailed description of mortality statistics in Württemberg and new excess mortality rate estimates for Germany and its states.","wordCount":132,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Richard Franke"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13165","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-832d5542f4f50cca","title":"Dynamic spillover transmission in agricultural commodity markets: What has changed after the COVID-19 threat?","abstract":"This paper applies the dynamic Diebold–Yilmaz and Baruník–Křehlík spillover indices to document a closer integration between agricultural commodity markets in the period when markets rebounded after the COVID-19 threat to the Russia–Ukraine​ war. We also identified the record return spillover transmission among agricultural commodities during a time of conflict and the strongest transmitters are wheat, maize and barley. The findings emphasise an increasing uncertainty to the global food market.","wordCount":69,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Małgorzata Just","Krzysztof Echaust"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110671","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-832d7130bb9c5bf1","title":"Public-sector employment, wages and education decisions","abstract":"We quantify the value of public-sector job security. We set up a search and matching model with a private and a public sector to understand the effects of employment and wage policies in the public sector on unemployment and education decisions. The effects on the educational composition of the labor force depend crucially on the structure of the labor market . An increase of skilled public-sector wages has a small positive impact on educational composition and larger negative impact on the private employment of skilled workers, if the two sectors are segmented. If there are movements across the two sectors, it has large positive impacts on education and on skilled private employment. We highlight the usefulness of the model for policymakers by calculating the value of public-sector job security for skilled and unskilled workers.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Andri Chassamboulli","Pedro Gomes"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102345","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8332ca6aac374cb0","title":"Analysing the determinants of insolvency risk for general insurance firms in the UK","abstract":"This paper estimates a reduced-form model to assess the insolvency risk of General Insurance (GI) firms in the UK. In comparison to earlier studies, it uses a much larger sample including 30 years of data for 515 firms, and also considers a much wider set of possible determinants of insolvency risk. The empirical results suggest that macroeconomic and firm-specific factors both play important roles. Other key findings are the following: insolvency risk varies across firms depending on their business lines; there is default clustering in the GI industry; different reinsurance levels also affect the insolvency risk of insurance firms. The implications of these findings for regulators of GI firms under the newly launched Solvency II are discussed.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Guglielmo Maria Caporale","Mario Cerrato","Xuan Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.07.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-836960bcb43ca9f0","title":"Time-varying interactions between monetary and housing credit policy","abstract":"The US federal government has long played a pivotal role in the mortgage market through various agencies, most notably the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The importance of these agencies in the housing credit policy landscape increased during the 1990s and in the years leading up to the Great Recession. This article examines the time-varying effects of monetary policy on mortgage credit, focusing on the role of housing credit policy from the early 1990s to 2014. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model and high-frequency monetary policy surprises, I show that GSEs’ activity in the secondary mortgage market has shaped the response of mortgage originations to monetary policy shocks. As GSEs became more involved in housing policy, the response of mortgage refinancing originations and GSEs’ mortgage purchases to monetary policy strengthened. This suggests that contractionary monetary policy, by undermining housing policy objectives and increasing profit opportunities from mortgage purchases, may prompt a stronger response from GSEs, which in turn dampens the adverse effects of monetary policy tightening on housing activity.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Giacomo Rella"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103723","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-836adc15862f2fa0","title":"The political economy of the<scp>COVID</scp>‐19 pandemic","abstract":"We argue that the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic by all levels of government around the world is not consistent with recommendations from standard welfare economics. Thus, it is important to ask why such policies have been adopted. That opens the door to examining the political economy of the COVID-19 pandemic. This requires examining the incentives and information that confront policymakers and voters and the institutional environments that shape their incentives and information. This lead article frames questions addressed in the remainder of the symposium.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Peter J. Boettke","Benjamin Powell"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12488","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-836d0f5de4085cba","title":"Choking under pressure in front of a supportive audience: Evidence from professional biathlon","abstract":"Performing in front of a supportive audience increases motivation. However, it also creates psychological pressure, which may impair performance, especially in precision tasks. In this paper, we exploit a unique setting in which professionals compete in a real-life contest with large monetary rewards in order to assess how they perform in front of a supportive audience. Using the task of shooting in the sprint competitions of professional biathlon events over a period of 16 years, we find that for both genders, biathletes from the top quartile of the ability distribution miss significantly more shots when competing in their home country compared to competing abroad. Our results are in line with the hypothesis that high expectations to perform well in front of a friendly audience prompt individuals to choke when performing skill-based tasks.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Ken Harb-Wu","Alex Krumer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.09.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-836ddcb048da1aa9","title":"GDP, Wellbeing, and Health: Thoughts on the 2017 Round of the International Comparison Program","abstract":"In March 2020, the International Comparison Project published its latest results, for the calendar year 2017. This round presents common-unit or purchasing-power-parity data for 176 countries on Gross Domestic Product and its components. We review a number of important issues, what is new, what is not new, and what the new data can and cannot do. Of great importance is the lack of news, that the results are broadly in line with earlier results from 2011. We consider the relationship between national accounts measures and health, particularly in light of the COVID-19 epidemic which may reduce global inequality, even as it increases inequality within countries. We emphasize things that GDP cannot do, some familiar-like its silence on distribution-and some less familiar-including its increasing detachment from national material wellbeing in a globalized world where international transfers of capital and property rights can have enormous effects on GDP, such as the 26 percent increase in Ireland's GDP in 2015.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Angus Deaton","Paul Schreyer"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12520","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-83839b5386894688","title":"(Not) alone in the world: Cheating in the presence of a virtual observer","abstract":"We conducted an experiment in a high-immersive virtual reality environment to study the effect of the presence of a virtual observer on cheating behavior. Participants were placed in a virtual room and played 30 rounds of a cheating game without a chance of their cheating being detected. We varied whether or not a virtual observer (an avatar) was present in the room, and, if so, whether the avatar was actively staring at the decision maker or passively seated in a corner watching his smartphone. Results display significantly less cheating with an active than with a passive avatar, but not less cheating than in a control condition without an avatar. This suggests that an active (virtual) observer can intensify reputational concerns, but that the presence of someone passive and uninterested may actually alleviate such concerns.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Jantsje M. Mol","E.C.M. van der Heijden","Jan Potters"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09644-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-838781485e2aae89","title":"High-speed rail and the spatial economy","abstract":"High-speed rail (HSR) is expanding rapidly worldwide. This review identifies three defining features of HSR: its strong appeal to high-value business travelers, the presence of long-haul economies whereby costs per kilometer decline with distance, and its capacity to enable intercity commuting between cities. These characteristics lead to non-trivial implications for the spatial economy. While HSR infrastructure is costly, travel-time savings and induced economic spatial reallocation can be substantial. We review both cost–benefit analyzes and empirical evidence, and argue that general equilibrium effects are central to understanding the full economic impact of HSR.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Hans R.A. Kost","Jacques-François Thisse"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2026.104192","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8390ec9012938953","title":"GHG emissions and firm performance: The role of CEO gender socialization","abstract":"In this paper, I examine the effect of corporate greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) on profitability. I use the gender composition of the CEOs' children as an identification strategy to investigate the impact of GHG emissions on profits. CEOs who father a daughter are associated with a 10% reduction in GHG emissions. The reduction in emissions, in turn, improves profitability. A one standard deviation decrease in GHG emissions leads to a 0.14 standard deviations increase in profitability. Examining the channels, I show that CEOs with daughters are more likely to adopt a climate-integrated business strategy and set emission-reduction targets. Emission reduction affects profitability through both information advantage (protection from negative industry shocks, and lower cost of capital), and operational efficiency (lower operating costs and energy consumption) channels.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Swarnodeep Homroy"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106721","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-83ade417092e4c3f","title":"History matters: How short-term price charts hurt investment performance","abstract":"When making investment decisions, people rely heavily on price charts displaying the past performance of an asset. Price charts can come with any time frame, which the provider might strategically choose. We analyze the impact of the time frame on retail investors’ behavior, particularly trading activity and risk-taking, in a controlled experiment with 1041 retail investors. We find that shorter time frames are associated with more trading activity, resulting in higher transaction fees and investor welfare losses. However, the time frame does not affect average risk-taking.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Charlotte Borsboom","Dirk‐Jan Janssen","Markus Strucks","Stefan Zeisberger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106351","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-83ae91ee64640248","title":"Who Should Be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice","abstract":"One of the main objectives of empirical analysis of experiments and quasi‐experiments is to inform policy decisions that determine the allocation of treatments to individuals with different observable covariates. We study the properties and implementation of the Empirical Welfare Maximization (EWM) method, which estimates a treatment assignment policy by maximizing the sample analog of average social welfare over a class of candidate treatment policies. The EWM approach is attractive in terms of both statistical performance and practical implementation in realistic settings of policy design. Common features of these settings include: (i) feasible treatment assignment rules are constrained exogenously for ethical, legislative, or political reasons, (ii) a policy maker wants a simple treatment assignment rule based on one or more eligibility scores in order to reduce the dimensionality of individual observable characteristics, and/or (iii) the proportion of individuals who can receive the treatment is a priori limited due to a budget or a capacity constraint. We show that when the propensity score is known, the average social welfare attained by EWM rules converges at least at n−1/2 rate to the maximum obtainable welfare uniformly over a minimally constrained class of data distributions, and this uniform convergence rate is minimax optimal. We examine how the uniform convergence rate depends on the richness of the class of candidate decision rules, the distribution of conditional treatment effects, and the lack of knowledge of the propensity score. We offer easily implementable algorithms for computing the EWM rule and an application using experimental data from the National JTPA Study.","wordCount":253,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Toru Kitagawa","Aleksey Tetenov"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13288","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-83d99b544b5d9ee4","title":"Patent trolls as financial intermediaries? Experimental evidence","abstract":"Recent work suggests that Patent Assertion Entities (PAEs)—or “patent trolls”—are a new form of financial intermediary. According to this view, individual patent holders are unable to contract with large manufacturers because they lack the financial resources necessary to litigate against infringement. Since individual patent holders are heterogeneous in their constraints and preferences, the market function of PAEs should depend on their specific demands. We conducted an experiment in which subjects from a population of interest were each assigned patents that were infringed by large manufacturers in a hypothetical scenario. We relaxed the financial constraints of some patent holders and evaluated whether this randomized intervention subsequently reduced the demand for PAEs relative to costly litigation. Our results indicate that PAEs served an intermediary function for two groups in our sample: subjects who identified as inventors rather than entrepreneurs, and subjects who were relatively more sensitive to financial losses.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Stephen Haber","Seth H. Werfel"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.10.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-83db2a62f9f3c103","title":"Broad bracketing for low probability events","abstract":"Individuals tend to underprepare for rare, catastrophic events because of biases in risk perception. A simple form of broad bracketing—presenting the cumulative probability of loss over a longer time horizon—has the potential to alleviate these barriers to accurate risk perception and increase protective actions such as purchasing flood insurance. However, it is an open question whether broad bracketing effects last over time: There is evidence that descriptive probability information is ignored when decisions are based on “experience” (repeatedly and in the face of feedback), which characterizes many protective decisions. Across six incentive-compatible experiments with high stakes, we find that the broad bracketing effect does not disappear or change size when decisions are made from experience. We also advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying broad bracketing, finding that, while cumulative probability size is a strong driver of the effect, this is dampened for larger brackets leading people to be less sensitive to probability size.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Shereen J. Chaudhry","Michael S. Hand","Howard Kunreuther"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09343-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-83e07d6bfc464dd5","title":"Working from home, commuting, and gender","abstract":"Work from home (WFH) arrangements may provide an opportunity to reduce gender gaps in labor market outcomes by reducing the gender differences in the willingness to commute. Using a stated-preference experiment among German employees, we estimate workers’ valuation of working from home and its impact on willingness-to-pay to avoid commuting by gender after the end of the COVID pandemic. We show that workers are willing to give up 7.7% of their earnings for full WFH and 5.4% for 2-day WFH on average. The willingness-to-pay for WFH steeply increases with commuting distance, in line with WFH reducing the need for long commutes for many workers. Importantly, we find that WFH reduces, but does not close, the gender gap in willingness-to-pay to avoid commuting. This result is unaffected by accounting for underage children in the household. This suggests that hopes of technology closing the gender wage gap are premature.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Markus Nagler","Johannes Rincke","Erwin Winkler"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01035-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-83e4ce8c827f1dfc","title":"Appointed learning for the common good: Optimal committee size and monetary transfers","abstract":"A population of identical individuals must choose one of two alternatives under uncertainty about the state of the world. Individuals can acquire different levels of costly information and complete contracts are not feasible. For such a setup, we investigate how vote delegation to a committee and suitable monetary transfers for its members can ensure that high or optimal levels of information are (jointly) acquired. We show that for a (stable) committee that uses the majority rule to maximize the probability of choosing the right alternative and then to minimize aggregate information acquisition costs, its size must be small in absolute terms (if full learning is possible) and small relative to population size (if only partial learning is possible). Yet committees must never be made up of one member, so the tyranny of a single decision-maker can be avoided. Our analysis identifies both the potential and some of the limitations of monetary transfers in committee design.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Hans Gersbach","Akaki Mamageishvili","Oriol Tejada"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.04.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-83ee6b98f3ccc331","title":"Can ESG Performance Mitigate Information Asymmetry? Moderating Effect of Assurance Services","abstract":"This study examines whether ESG performance reduces information asymmetry and whether assurance services have a moderating effect on the association between ESG performance and information asymmetry. Given the increasing importance and benefits of ESG, examining how ESG performance improves the information environment is a critical question. Using ESG performance data, this study employs a panel data analysis of a large set of U.S. companies with 1,294 observations that are one-to-one matched between assured and unassured groups. The findings indicate that ESG performance reduces information asymmetry and that assurance services have a moderating effect on the negative relationship between ESG performance and information asymmetry. This study makes several contributions to the ESG literature by providing new evidence on ESG performance, employing the moderating variable of assurance services, and minimizing selection bias with propensity score matching. These findings have implications for the professionals and practitioners for information credibility of ESG and assurance services.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Jin Wook Kim","Cheong Kyu Park"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2107991","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-83fc0a4ea38f1401","title":"Moral Suasion and Economic Incentives: Field Experimental Evidence from Energy Demand","abstract":"Firms and governments often use moral suasion and economic incentives to influence intrinsic and extrinsic motivations for economic activities. To investigate persistence of such interventions, we randomly assign households to moral suasion and dynamic pricing that stimulate energy conservation during peak-demand hours. We find significant habituation and dishabituation for moral suasion—the treatment effect diminishes after repeated interventions but can be restored to the original level by a sufficient time interval between interventions. Economic incentives induce larger treatment effects, little habituation, and significant habit formation. Our results suggest moral suasion and economic incentives produce substantially different short-run and long-run policy impacts.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Koichiro Ito","Takanori Ida","Makoto Tanaka"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160093","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-84055a8597c45628","title":"Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects","abstract":"We adapt simple tools from computational linguistics to construct a new measure of political risk faced by individual U.S. firms: the share of their quarterly earnings conference calls that they devote to political risks. We validate our measure by showing that it correctly identifies calls containing extensive conversations on risks that are political in nature, that it varies intuitively over time and across sectors, and that it correlates with the firm’s actions and stock market volatility in a manner that is highly indicative of political risk. Firms exposed to political risk retrench hiring and investment and actively lobby and donate to politicians. These results continue to hold after controlling for news about the mean (as opposed to the variance) of political shocks. Interestingly, the vast majority of the variation in our measure is at the firm level rather than at the aggregate or sector level, in the sense that it is captured neither by the interaction of sector and time fixed effects nor by heterogeneous exposure of individual firms to aggregate political risk. The dispersion of this firm-level political risk increases significantly at times with high aggregate political risk. Decomposing our measure of political risk by topic, we find that firms that devote more time to discussing risks associated with a given political topic tend to increase lobbying on that topic, but not on other topics, in the following quarter.","wordCount":230,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Tarek A. Hassan","Stephan Hollander","Laurence van Lent","Ahmed Tahoun"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz021","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-841553846e16b2f7","title":"On the Foundations of Corporate Social Responsibility","abstract":"Using corporate social responsibility (CSR) ratings for 23,000 companies from 114 countries, we find that a firm's CSR rating and its country's legal origin are strongly correlated. Legal origin is a stronger explanation than “doing good by doing well” factors or firm and country characteristics (ownership concentration, political institutions, and globalization): firms from common law countries have lower CSR than companies from civil law countries, with Scandinavian civil law firms having the highest CSR ratings. Evidence from quasi‐natural experiments such as scandals and natural disasters suggests that civil law firms are more responsive to CSR shocks than common law firms.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Hao Liang","Luc Renneboog"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12487","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-8420f6cbd8854200","title":"Who Blows the Whistle on Cartels? Finding the Leniency Applicant at the European Commission","abstract":"Competition authorities need a better understanding of the determinants of cartel self-reporting in order to increase cartel members’ incentives to apply for the benefit from leniency programs and thus improve the effectiveness of anti-cartel policy. Using information on 683 firm groups that participated in 132 cartels that were penalized by the European Commission between 1996 and 2020, we estimate which type of cartel member is most likely to be the first or subsequent leniency applicant. Our results emphasize the role of firm groups as a driver to self-report: The higher is the proportion of firms that are part of the same group (relative to the size of the cartel), the greater is the likelihood of applying for leniency. Fines also incentivize cartelists—with the exceptions of ringleaders—to self-report. While ringleaders or instigators tend to avoid being first confessors, they appear to be more likely to self-report than are others only after someone else has revealed the cartel. Finally, cartels that do bid-rigging are less likely to be uncovered by a leniency application.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Juan Luis Jiménez","Manuel Ojeda-Cabral","José Manuel Ordóñez-de-Haro"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09911-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-843a2db901862d70","title":"Policy, Demography, and Market Income Volatility: What Shaped Income Distribution and Inequality in Australia Between 2002 and 2016?","abstract":"Isolating the impact of policy, demographic shifts, and market volatility on changes in income inequality is of great interest to policymakers. However, such estimation can be difficult due to the complex interactions and evolutions in the social and economic environment. Through an extended decomposition framework, this paper estimates the effect of four main components (policy, demography, market income and other factors) on the year‐over‐year changes in income inequality in Australia between 2002 and 2016. This was a period marked by substantial policy, population, and economic shifts due to factors such as the mining boom, the global financial crisis and increasing immigration. The framework also incorporates a flexible non‐parametric market income model which captures demand‐side shock better than a standard parametric model. Our results suggest that market income was the primary driver of income inequality for all segments of the income distribution in Australia over the past 15 years. Policy factors, moreover, have had the largest net impact on reducing inequality overall, especially for lower income earners.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Jinjing Li","Hai Anh La","Denisa Maria Sologon"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12467","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-843b7a2fc9350036","title":"How soon is now? Evidence of present bias from convex time budget experiments","abstract":"We conduct a laboratory experiment in Kenya in which we elicit time and risk preference parameters from 494 participants, using convex time budgets and tightly controlling for transaction costs. Using the Kenyan mobile money system M-Pesa to make real-time transfers to subjects’ phones , we vary whether same-day payments are made immediately after the experimental session or at the close of the business day. We find strong evidence of present bias, with estimates of the present bias parameter ranging from 0.902 to 0.924—but only when same-day payments are made immediately after the experiment.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Uttara Balakrishnan","Johannes Haushofer","Pamela Jakiela"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09617-y","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-844931d765fdb215","title":"Corporate social responsibility by joint agreement","abstract":"Industry-wide voluntary agreements are touted as a means for corporations to take more corporate social responsibility (CSR). We study what type of joint CSR agreement induces competitors to increase CSR efforts in a model of oligopolistic competition with differentiated products. Consumers have a higher willingness to pay for more responsibly produced goods and services. Firms are driven by profit, and are also possibly intrinsically motivated, to invest in CSR. We find that cooperative agreements directly on the level of CSR reduce CSR efforts compared to competition. Such agreements throttle both for-profit and intrinsic motivation for CSR. CSR efforts only increase if agreements are permitted solely on output. Such production agreements, however, reduce total welfare in the market and raise antitrust concerns. Taking externalities into account may help justify a production agreement under a broader welfare standard, but not agreements on CSR directly. Simply setting a higher mandatory CSR standard by regulation while preserving competition always gives higher within-market welfare.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Maarten Pieter Schinkel","Leonard Treuren"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102897","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8459e1609977e33c","title":"How to reveal people’s preferences: Comparing time consistency and predictive power of multiple price list risk elicitation methods","abstract":"The question of how to measure and classify people’s risk preferences is of substantial importance in the field of economics. Inspired by the multitude of ways used to elicit risk preferences, we conduct a holistic investigation of the most prevalent method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under various versions of MPLs as well as yield unstable results within a 30-minute time frame. We determine the most stable elicitation method with the highest forecast accuracy by using multiple measures of within-method consistency and by using behavior in two economically relevant games as benchmarks. A derivation of the well-known method by Holt and Laury (American Economic Review 92(5):1644–1655, 2002), where the highest payoff is varied instead of probabilities, emerges as the best MPL method in both dimensions. As we pinpoint each MPL characteristic’s effect on the revealed preference and its consistency, our results have implications for preference elicitation procedures in general.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Tamás Csermely","Alexander Rabas"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9247-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-847f35b721d0fbf9","title":"What the COVID-19 school closure left in its wake: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Japan","abstract":"To control the spread of COVID-19, the national government of Japan abruptly started the closure of elementary schools on March 2, 2020, but preschools were exempted from this nationwide school closure. Taking advantage of this natural experiment, we examined how the proactive closure of elementary schools affected various outcomes related to children and family well-being. To identify the causal effects of the school closure, we exploited the discontinuity in the probability of going to school at a certain threshold of age in months and conducted fuzzy regression discontinuity analyses. The data are from a large-scale online survey of mothers whose firstborn children were aged 4 to 10 years. The results revealed a large increase in children's weight and in mothers' anxiety over how to raise their children. On the outcomes related to marital relationships, such as the incidence of domestic violence and the quality of marriage, we did not find statistically significant changes. These findings together suggest that school closures could have large unintended detrimental effects on non-academic outcomes among children.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Reo Takaku","Izumi Yokoyama"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104364","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-849d369f12d98328","title":"On the power of indicators: how the choice of fuel poverty indicator affects the identification of the target population","abstract":"In light of the creation of the EU Energy Poverty Observatory (EPOV) in January 2018 and the increase in debates on how fuel poverty is measured, we propose a critical analysis of fuel poverty indicators and demonstrate that choosing a given indicator is central to the identification of the fuel-poorpopulation.First, we conducted an inter-indicator analysis to show how profiles of fuel-poor households vary depending on the indicator selected. We designed a multidimensional approach based on a multiple correspondence analysis and a hierarchical and partitioning clustering analysis to study characteristics of fuel-poor households. We highlight the difficulty of identifying a fuel-poor ‘typical profile’ and show that the composition of the population depends on the choice of the indicator.Second, we applied an intra-indicator analysis using two objective expenditure-based indicators with thresholds. In particular, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on a logit model including variables describing household and dwelling characteristics. We show that the profiles of fuel-poor households as well as the drivers of fuel poverty vary considerably with the chosen threshold level.Given these findings, we stress the need to review how we currently rely on conventional fuel poverty indicators to identify target groups and give some recommendations.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Florian Fizaine","Sondès Kahouli"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1524975","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-84a35b4bd4b2d5ef","title":"Predictably Unequal? The Effects of Machine Learning on Credit Markets","abstract":"Innovations in statistical technology in functions including credit‐screening have raised concerns about distributional impacts across categories such as race. Theoretically, distributional effects of better statistical technology can come from greater flexibility to uncover structural relationships or from triangulation of otherwise excluded characteristics. Using data on U.S. mortgages, we predict default using traditional and machine learning models. We find that Black and Hispanic borrowers are disproportionately less likely to gain from the introduction of machine learning. In a simple equilibrium credit market model, machine learning increases disparity in rates between and within groups, with these changes attributable primarily to greater flexibility.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Andreas Fuster","Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham","Tarun Ramadorai","Ansgar Walther"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13090","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-84db7acfeab9cf03","title":"Economic History, Historical Analysis, and the “New History of Capitalism”","abstract":"This article presents a critical survey of ten books from the history of capitalism, a newly emerging subfield of history. At their best, the books offer provocative insights and vivid descriptions of some of the darker episodes of our economic past. Yet specious arguments and failures of analytical reasoning sometimes undermine these books' effectiveness as social criticism. I highlight insights from the field of economic history that would strengthen the work of historians of capitalism. I also suggest some opportunities for dialogue, if not collaboration, between the two communities of scholars.","wordCount":91,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Eric Hilt"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002205071700016x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-84eab69048c8b2e3","title":"Preferences and perceptions in Provision and Maintenance public goods","abstract":"We study two generic versions of public goods problems: in Provision problems, the public good does not exist initially and needs to be provided; in Maintenance problems, the public good already exists and needs to be maintained. In four lab and online experiments (n=2,105), we document a robust asymmetry in preferences and perceptions in two incentive-equivalent versions of these public good problems. We find fewer conditional cooperators and more free riders in Maintenance than Provision, a difference that is replicable, stable, and reflected in perceptions of kindness. Incentivized control questions administered before gameplay reveal dilemma-specific misperceptions but controlling for them neither eliminates game-dependent conditional cooperation, nor differences in perceived kindness of others' cooperation. Thus, even when sharing the same game form, Maintenance and Provision are different social dilemmas that require separate behavioral analyses.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Simon Gächter","Felix Kölle","Simone Quercia"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.06.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-84fa75ff9f71a37a","title":"Frontiers of mobility: Was Australia 1870–2017 a more socially mobile society than England?","abstract":"There is longstanding pride among Australians that by throwing off the social class demarcations that defined their ossified colonial parent society, England, they created an open, socially mobile society. The paper tests this belief by estimating long run social mobility rates in Australia 1870–2017, using the status of rare surnames. The status information includes occupations from electoral rolls 1903–1980, and records of degrees awarded by Melbourne and Sydney universities 1852–2017. Status persistence was strong throughout, with an intergenerational correlation of occupational or educational status of 0.7–0.8, and no change over time. Mobility rates were also just as low within UK immigrants and their descendants, so ethnic group effects explain none of the immobility. The less pronounced class divisions of Australia compared to England did not enhance social mobility. A possible sign of enhanced Australian social mobility – the fact that surnames associated with convicts already had a modest elite status by 1870 – seems to derive from convicts transported to Australia from England being positively selected in terms of human capital.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Gregory Clark","Andrew Leigh","Mike Pottenger"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101327","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-850813b477d47d99","title":"Water, Health and Wealth: The Impact of Piped Water Outages on Disease Prevalence and Financial Transactions in Zambia","abstract":"Providing clean water requires maintenance, as well as the initial connections that are typically measured. Frequently, the water supply fails in the developing world, especially when users do not pay the marginal cost of water. This paper uses the timing of frequent, unexpected water service outages in Lusaka, Zambia to identify the short‐term impacts of piped water access on contagious disease, economic activity and time use. We use microdata from the primary water utility in the city on the timing and location of supply complaints to identify outages, matched to extensive administrative data across the city. Conditional on fixed effects for time and water service district within Lusaka, we find that increases in outages are associated with increased incidence of diarrhoeal disease, upper respiratory infections, typhoid fever and measles. We match outages to geolocated microdata on financial transactions from the largest mobile money provider in Zambia, and find that outages cause a reduction in financial transactions. Outages also increase the time that young girls spend at their chores, possibly at the expense of time that they spend doing schoolwork. Imperfect infrastructure appears to burden the poor in ways that go far beyond obvious health consequences.","wordCount":195,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Nava Ashraf","Edward L. Glaeser","Abraham Holland","Bryce Millett Steinberg"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12369","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-850c79ae179b0249","title":"Marriage, dowry, and women’s status in rural Punjab, Pakistan","abstract":"Dowry is a common custom observed in South Asian countries. Despite alleged negative consequences caused by dowry and the legal ban or restrictions on its practice, the custom has been extended, and recently, dowry amounts seem to be increasing. Compared with public interest in and theoretical studies on dowry, empirical studies are relatively scarce mainly due to data unavailability and inadequacy. We conducted a household survey specifically designed to empirically investigate how dowry is associated with women’s status in the marital household in rural Punjab, Pakistan. The dataset is unique because it gathers information on disaggregated marriage expenses, which enables us to examine the relation between each itemized component of dowry and women’s status. Results show that a higher dowry amount, especially in terms of furniture, electronics, and kitchenware, is positively associated with women’s status in the marital household. The positive association of these illiquid items adds suggestive evidence that in rural Punjab, Pakistan, dowry serves as a trousseau that the bride’s parents voluntarily offer to their daughter.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Momoe Makino"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0713-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8514dfb43f1c78e5","title":"High school choices and the gender gap in <scp>stem</scp>","abstract":"Women are less likely than men to graduate with a degree in science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM). We use detailed administrative data for a recent cohort of Ontario high school students, combined with data from the province's university admission system, to analyze the sources of this gap. We show that entry to STEM programs is mediated through an index of STEM readiness that depends on end‐of‐high school courses in math and science. Most of the gender gap in STEM entry can be traced to differences in the share of college entrants who are STEM‐ready; only a small share is attributable to differences in the choice of major conditional on readiness. We then use high school course data to decompose the gender gap in STEM readiness into two channels: one reflecting the gap in the fraction of high school students with the necessary prerequisites to enter STEM, the other arising from differences in the overall fractions of females and males who enter university. The gender gap in the fraction of males and females with STEM prerequisites is small. The primary driver of the gap in STEM readiness is the low rate of university entry by nonscience‐oriented males.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["David Card","A. Abigail Payne"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12934","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-851cef25429b9b2a","title":"Rehabilitation and social behavior: Experiments in prison","abstract":"Despite the economic and social significance of crime reduction and criminals' rehabilitation, research evaluating the effects of incarceration on behavior is surprisingly scarce. We conduct an experiment with 105 prison inmates and complement it with administrative data in order to explore several aspects of their social behavior. We first perform a comprehensive analysis of behavior in three economic games, finding evidence of discrimination against a sample from outside prison. In addition, our regression analysis reveals that inmates generally become less pro-social towards this out-group the longer they remain incarcerated. Finally, we introduce and evaluate a priming intervention that asks inmates to reflect on their time spent in prison. This intervention has a very sizeable and significant impact, increasing pro-sociality towards the out-group. Hence, a simple, low-cost intervention of this sort can have desirable effects in promoting rehabilitation and integration into social and economic life after release.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Loukas Balafoutas","Aurora García-Gallego","Nikolaos Georgantzı́s","Tarek Jaber-López","Evangelos Mitrokostas"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.10.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-851d2caa9d02909d","title":"Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions","abstract":"This article addresses the issue of inference in time‐varying parameter regression models in the presence of many predictors and develops a novel dynamic variable selection strategy. The proposed variational Bayes dynamic variable selection algorithm allows for assessing at each time period in the sample which predictors are relevant (or not) for forecasting the dependent variable. The algorithm is used to forecast inflation using over 400 macroeconomic, financial, and global predictors, many of which are potentially irrelevant or short‐lived. The new methodology is able to ensure parsimonious solutions to this high‐dimensional estimation problem, which translate into excellent forecast performance.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Gary Koop","Dimitris Korobilis"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12623","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-851e17f6ce276d0b","title":"The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk","abstract":"We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect on the lower fifth percentile of conditional growth—which we call growth-at-risk (GaR)—than the median. In addition, the term structure of GaR reflects that when initial financial conditions are loose, downside risks are lower in the near term but increase in later quarters. This intertemporal tradeoff for loose financial conditions is amplified when credit-to-GDP growth is rapid. Using granular instrumental variables, we also provide evidence that the relationship from loose financial conditions to future downside risks is causal. Our results suggest that models of macrofinancial linkages should incorporate the endogeneity of higher-order moments to systematically account for downside risks to growth in the medium run.","wordCount":131,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Tobias Adrian","Federico Grinberg","Nellie Liang","Sheheryar Malik","Jie Yu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180428","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8522419ebc1be3d9","title":"Customary Norms, Inheritance, and Human Capital: Evidence from a Reform of the Matrilineal System in Ghana","abstract":"We study the role of traditional norms in land allocation and human capital investment. We exploit a policy experiment in Ghana that increased the land that children from matrilineal groups could inherit from their fathers. Boys exposed to the reform received 0.9 less years of education—an effect driven by landed households, for whom the reform was binding. We find no effect for girls, whose inheritance was de facto unaffected. These patterns suggest that before the reform matrilineal groups invested more in education than they would if unconstrained, to substitute for land inheritance, underscoring the importance of cultural norms.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Eliana La Ferrara","Annamaria Milazzo"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150342","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-853327014860135c","title":"Inequality of subjective well‐being as a comprehensive measure of inequality","abstract":"The link between happiness and overall inequality is best studied using an index that incorporates different aspects of inequality, and is measured consistently in different countries. One such index is the degree to which happiness itself varies among individuals. Its correlation with both happiness levels and social trust is substantially stronger than the corresponding correlation for income inequality. This remains so after allowing for bounded scale reporting, including a purely ordinal measure of dispersion. Moreover, the correlation is stronger for individuals who profess to care most about inequality. The link between happiness and inequality may thus be stronger than previously appreciated.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Leonard Goff","John F. Helliwell","Guy Mayraz"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12582","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-85376d251a631b3d","title":"Banks, non-banks, and the incorporation of local information in CMBS loan pricing","abstract":"Comparing banks to non-bank lenders, we investigate whether the geographical distance between lenders, borrowers, and their properties is reflected in the pricing of US mortgages that were included in US commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) pools during the 2000 to 2017 period. The difference in loan spreads when the bank-borrower distance increases from zero to the median of about 700 miles is 10 basis points, and this effect is more pronounced if the loan is collateralized by a riskier property. On the contrary, geographical distance does not seem to have any effect on the loan spread of mortgages granted by non-bank lenders. The difference in loan pricing across originator types (even after controlling for key mortgage and property characteristics) suggests that banks and non-bank lenders have different incentives, lending technologies, and/or different types of borrowers. Our results contribute to the emerging literature on non-bank lender behavior.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Piet Eichholtz","Steven Ongena","Nagihan Simeth","Erkan Yönder"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106918","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-85533547c356593c","title":"Can Preferences for Redistribution Explain the Impact of Austerity on Political Participation? Evidence from the <scp>UK</scp>","abstract":"Many European countries introduced austerity policies to control rising debt in the wake of the Great Recession of the late 2000s. Recent research suggests that austerity fuelled political polarization, instability, and populism in Europe. However, the motives behind citizens' responses to austerity are not well understood. Using the case of the UK, we study whether preferences for redistribution drive the effect of austerity on political participation in the form of voting, appealing for reform with the government, and protesting. Based on experimental and observational data, we show that individual exposure to austerity increases voting and appealing for reform with the government but not protesting, and changes people's preferences for redistribution. The experimental data show that being exposed to austerity is associated with a 0.128 and a 0.096 unit increase in voting and appealing for reform, respectively. The data also show that exposure to austerity increases preferences for taxing higher incomes and spending more on welfare and social security. This change in preferences explains between 8% and 11% of the effect of exposure to austerity on political participation.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Patrícia Justino","Bruno Martorano","Laura Metzger"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12640","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-855c451caa50d287","title":"A Pseudo-Market Approach to Allocation with Priorities","abstract":"We propose a pseudo-market mechanism for no-monetary-transfer allocation of indivisible objects based on priorities such as those in school choice. Agents are given token money, face priority-specific prices, and buy utility-maximizing random assignments. The mechanism is asymptotically incentive compatible, and the resulting assignments are fair and constrained Pareto efficient. Hylland and Zeckhauser’s (1979) position-allocation problem is a special case of our framework, and our results on incentives and fairness are also new in their classical setting.","wordCount":76,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Yinghua He","Antonio Miralles","Marek Pycia","Jianye Yan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150259","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-856013d41d963acf","title":"A stochastic programming model for dynamic portfolio management with financial derivatives","abstract":"Stochastic optimization models have been extensively applied to financial portfolios and have proven their effectiveness in asset and asset-liability management. Occasionally, however, they have been applied to dynamic portfolio problems including not only assets traded in secondary markets but also derivative contracts such as options or futures with their dedicated payoff functions. Such extension allows the construction of asymmetric payoffs for hedging or speculative purposes but also leads to several mathematical issues. Derivatives-based nonlinear portfolios in a discrete multistage stochastic programming (MSP) framework can be potentially very beneficial to shape dynamically a portfolio return distribution and attain superior performance. In this article we present a portfolio model with equity options, which extends significantly previous efforts in this area, and analyse the potential of such extension from a modeling and methodological viewpoints. We consider an asset universe and model portfolio set-up including equity, bonds, money market, a volatility-based exchange-traded-fund (ETF) and over-the-counter (OTC) option contracts on the equity. Relying on this market structure we formulate and analyse, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time, a comprehensive set of optimal option strategies in a discrete framework, including canonical protective puts, covered calls and straddles, as well as more advanced combined strategies based on equity options and the volatility index. The problem formulation relies on a data-driven scenario generation method for asset returns and option prices consistent with arbitrage-free conditions and incomplete market assumptions. The joint inclusion of option contracts and the VIX as asset class in a dynamic portfolio problem extends previous efforts in the domain of volatility-driven optimal policies. By introducing an optimal trade-off problem based on expected wealth and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), we formulate the problem as a stochastic linear program and present an extended set of numerical results across different market phases, to discuss the interplay among asset classes and options, relevant to financial engineers and fund managers. We find that options’ portfolios and trading in options strengthen an effective tail risk control, and help shaping portfolios returns’ distributions, consistently with an investor’s risk attitude. Furthermore the introduction of a volatility index in the asset universe, jointly with equity options, leads to superior risk-adjusted returns, both in- and out-of-sample, as shown in the final case-study.","wordCount":369,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Diana Barro","Giorgio Consigli","Vivek Varun"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106445","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8567f2e0052956c6","title":"Specification Searching and Significance Inflation Across Time, Methods and Disciplines","abstract":"This paper examines how significance inflation has varied across time, methods and disciplines. Leveraging a unique data set of impact evaluations on 20 kinds of development programmes, I find that results from randomized controlled trials exhibit less significance inflation than results from studies using other methods. Further, randomized controlled trials have exhibited less significance inflation over time, but quasi‐experimental studies have not. There is no robust difference between results from researchers affiliated with economics departments and those from researchers affiliated with other predominantly health‐related departments. Overall, the biases found appear much smaller than those previously observed in other social sciences.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Eva Vivalt"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12289","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-85790dd899f28825","title":"Externalities in appropriation: responses to probabilistic losses","abstract":") of a public good. The probabilistic loss parameter entails losing 10, 50 or 90% of the value of the public good that is maintained through cooperation, where the likelihood of the loss decreases in total group cooperation. By design, the expected marginal net benefits to an individual and the expected harm to others depends endogenously on the individuals' expectations of group cooperation and exogenously on the magnitude of the loss parameter. We find that individual cooperation is greater when forecasts of total group cooperation are greater and where the magnitude of the probabilistic loss is larger. There is, however, an interesting asymmetry in responses by two subgroups. Subjects who are pessimistic regarding total group cooperation decrease cooperation the higher the magnitude of the probabilistic loss and their decisions are tied systematically to changes in their expectations of other's cooperation. On the other hand, subjects who are optimistic regarding total group cooperation are found to be more cooperative, but their decisions are not systematically tied to changes in expectations of others' cooperation.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Esther Blanco","Tobias Haller","James M. Walker"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9511-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8588d397d78d603e","title":"The value of statistical life in the context of road safety: new evidence on the contingent valuation/standard gamble chained approach","abstract":"This study estimates the value of statistical life (VSL) on a road traffic accident using the Contingent Valuation/Standard Gamble chained approach. A large representative sample (n = 2020) is used to calculate a VSL for use in the evaluation of road safety programmes in Spain. The paper also makes some methodological contributions, by providing new evidence about the consistency of the chained method. Our main results are: (1) A range from 1.3 million euro to 1.7 million euro is obtained for the VSL in Spain in the context of road accidents. This range is in line with the values used in the same context in other European countries, although it is lower than those obtained in different contexts and with other methods. (2) The method performs much better in terms of scope sensitivity than the traditional contingent valuation method, which asks subjects about their willingness to pay for very small reductions in the risk of death. (3) We introduce a new ‘indirect’ chaining approach which reduces (but does not remove) the disparity between direct and indirect chaining approaches. More extreme VSL estimates are still obtained with this indirect method than with the direct one. (4) VSL estimates depend on the injury used. More specifically, we obtained a lower VSL when a more severe injury is used. (5) Framing the risk of death in the modified standard gamble question as “ 10n in 10,000” instead of “ n in 1000” influences the value of VSL. We attribute this effect to the Ratio Bias.","wordCount":252,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Fernando Ignacio Sánchez Martínez","Jorge Eduardo Martínez Pérez","José‐María Abellán‐Perpiñán","José Luis Pinto Prades"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09360-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-858eb80f18903ffb","title":"Farmers’ spatial targeting, landscape elements, and the cost-effectiveness of result-based versus measure-based payments: Insights from an ecological-economic model","abstract":"Agri-environment schemes (AES) are typically measure-based, meaning that farmers are rewarded based on the implementation of specified conservation measures. However, result-based schemes have emerged as a promising alternative, whereby farmers are rewarded based on the achievement of specified conservation goals such as the occurrence of a particular species on their land. An advantage of result-based AES, which has received insufficient attention in the literature, is that they incentivise the spatial targeting of farmers to areas with most suitable habitat conditions. In our analysis, we focus on the presence of pre-existing landscape elements such as hedges, trees and water bodies, as an important habitat condition that positively impacts many species and therefore increases the likelihood of their occurrence. Farmers are likely to consider this aspect in their decision-making process and conduct spatial targeting when participating in result-based schemes. In contrast, the presence of landscape elements and the resulting likelihood of species occurrence does not play a role in farmers’ participation in measure-based schemes. This paper develops a generic ecological-economic model to gain an understanding of the extent to which different ecological and economic parameters affect the comparative cost-effectiveness of result-based and measure-based AES against this newly analysed aspect of landscape elements as an example of spatial targeting. In terms of policy recommendations, the paper provides general insights into the extent to which the analysed parameters affect the comparative cost-effectiveness of the two schemes.","wordCount":232,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Caterina De Petris","Frank Wätzold"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101568","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-85970afb361a9fb7","title":"Consequences of Administrative Burden for Social Safety Nets that Support the Healthy Development of Children","abstract":"Through the lens of administrative burden and ordeals, we investigate challenges that low‐income families face in accessing health and human services critical for their children's healthy development. We employ a mixed methods approach—drawing on administrative data on economically disadvantaged children in Tennessee, publicly available data on resource allocations and expenditures, and data collected in purposive and randomly sampled interviews with public and nonprofit agencies across the state—to analyze the distribution of resources relative to children's needs and provide rich descriptions of the experiences of organizations striving to overcome administrative burdens and support families. We also scrutinize the place‐based resource deserts and environmental contexts of resource gaps and deficiencies in public policies governing the distribution of public resources that exacerbate administrative burdens and inequities in access to public resources. Our insights into the costs imposed on individuals and organizations and how they impede or spill over into other aspects of organizational work point to specific state and local program and policy changes that could be implemented to address resource constraints and alleviate burdens on organizations and poor families.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Carolyn J. Heinrich","Sayil Camacho","Sarah C. Henderson","Mónica Hernández","Ela Joshi"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22324","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-85aa6f86e385d6c7","title":"Cartel Leniency and Settlements: A Joint Perspective","abstract":"This paper studies the interactions between a cartel leniency program and a settlement procedure. The EU settlement procedure gives colluding firms that do not apply for leniency an additional opportunity to cooperate with the competition authority in exchange for a reduced fine after a preliminary case has been established against them. We derive the conditions under which colluding firms apply for leniency, settle, or refuse to cooperate with the authority in equilibrium. Our policy results show that settlements can act as a complement or as a substitute to the leniency program. We also study the welfare-optimal policy and highlight a novel interdependence between the fine reductions that should be offered to leniency applicants and to settling firms.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Peter T. Dijkstra","Jacob Seifert"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09910-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-85bee7abadd8b0f8","title":"Reconstruction of the Spanish money supply, 1492–1810","abstract":"How did the Spanish money supply evolve in the aftermath of the discovery of large amounts of precious metals in Spanish America? We synthesize the available data on the mining of precious metals and their international flow to estimate the money supply for Spain from 1492 to 1810. Our estimate suggests that the Spanish money supply increased more than ten-fold. Viewed through the equation of exchange this money supply increase can account for most of the price level rise in early modern Spain.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Yao Chen","Nuno Palma","Felix Ward"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101401","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-85c646ed06b2e86c","title":"Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies","abstract":"Supply chain disruptions have recently been at the center of both academic and policy debates. After reviewing some of the emerging literature on supply chain disruptions, we discuss the role of buyers' sourcing strategies in mediating responses to such shocks. We focus on two dimensions of a buyer's sourcing strategy: relationality (the extent to which the buyer concentrates its sourcing in a few core suppliers) and just-in-time. On the one hand, theoretical models of sourcing suggest that these are complementary practices and their adoption should be positively correlated in the data. On the other hand, the two dimensions have opposing implications for supply-chain resilience to shocks. We borrow an empirical proxy for a buyer's relationality from Cajal-Grossi et al. (2023) and introduce a new proxy for a buyer's adoption of just-in-time inventory systems. Using data from the apparel global value chain we compute the two proxies and present three results: (a) the variation in both relationality and just-in-time is mostly explained by across-buyer variation, rather than product or country variation, (b) consistent with the theoretical analysis in Taylor and Wiggins (1997), relationality and just-in-time are highly correlated with each other across buyers, (c) at the onset of the global Covid-19 pandemic, buyers' overall sourced values declined relatively less for relational buyers but not for buyers with just-in-time inventory systems.","wordCount":219,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Julia Cajal-Grossi","Davide Del Prete","Rocco Macchiavello"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.103004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-85d359f276ae0b43","title":"Intergenerational spillover effects of language training for refugees","abstract":"Children of refugees are among the most economically disadvantaged youth in several European countries. They are more likely to drop out of school and to commit crime. We find that a reform in Denmark in 1999 that expanded language training for adult refugees and was shown to improve their earnings and job market outcomes permanently, also increased lower secondary school completion rates and decreased juvenile crime rates for their children. The crime effect is entirely due to boys who were below school age when their parents received language training. The older cohorts who were in elementary school when their parents received language training performed better in lower secondary school. Boys were more likely to finish lower secondary school and to sit the final exams, and girls achieved higher grade point averages in the exams.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Mette Foged","Linea Hasager","Giovanni Peri","Jacob Nielsen Arendt","Iben Bolvig"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104840","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-85eefc57b4875397","title":"Monetary Transmission through Shadow Banks","abstract":"I find that shadow bank money creation significantly expands during monetary-tightening cycles. This “shadow banking channel” offsets reductions in commercial bank deposits and dampens the impact of monetary policy. Using a structural model of bank competition, I show that the difference in depositor clienteles quantitatively explains banks’ different responses to monetary policy. Facing a more yield-sensitive clientele, shadow banks are more likely to pass through rate hikes to depositors, thereby attracting more deposits when the Federal Reserve raises rates. My results suggest that monetary tightening could unintentionally increase financial fragility by driving deposits into the uninsured shadow banking sector.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Kairong Xiao"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz112","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-85f2d0055ed419be","title":"Local peer influence on dividend payout decisions","abstract":"Using a large sample of US-listed firms, we examine how firms’ dividend payout decisions are influenced by the dividend policies of their local peers. We find that the decisions to increase and decrease dividends are both influenced by the payout choices of firms headquartered in the same locality. We show that local peer effects are driven by the desire to compete for local dividend clineteles, with local peer effects proving more pronounced in geographies with greater retail investors clienteles, institutional-tax clienteles, and agency-cost clienteles. In contrast to dividends, share repurchases are not influenced by local peer repurchase decisions. Our findings prove robust to various sampling methods, peer portfolios, model specifications, and estimation techniques.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Joshua Cave","Sandra Lancheros"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107206","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-860241b8cadf600c","title":"Environmental regulations and industrial competitiveness: evidence from China","abstract":"Economic activities are closely related to real-world environmental issues. Currently, more attention is paid to the association between environmental regulations and industrial competitiveness (IC) because of pressures on economic development and environmental protection. In this study, we identify and explain the association between environmental regulations and IC in China. As the largest developing country in the world, China has the unavoidable responsibility of protecting the environment and promoting global economic development. We analyse the mechanisms behind environmental regulations and industrial competiveness at the provincial level and conclude that the impact of environmental regulations upon IC is not a simple linear one, but a U-shaped relationship. It is argued that the crucial intervention to activate the U-shaped relationship, or Porter's Hypothesis, is innovation, which can be triggered by stringent regulations and well-designed policies.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Spyridon Stavropoulos","Ronald Wall","Yuanze Xu"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1363858","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-860970c844d8f9b0","title":"Presidential Address: The Scientific Outlook in Financial Economics","abstract":"Given the competition for top journal space, there is an incentive to produce “significant” results. With the combination of unreported tests, lack of adjustment for multiple tests, and direct and indirect p‐ hacking, many of the results being published will fail to hold up in the future. In addition, there are basic issues with the interpretation of statistical significance. Increasing thresholds may be necessary, but still may not be sufficient: if the effect being studied is rare, even t > 3 will produce a large number of false positives. Here I explore the meaning and limitations of a p‐ value. I offer a simple alternative (the minimum Bayes factor). I present guidelines for a robust, transparent research culture in financial economics. Finally, I offer some thoughts on the importance of risk‐taking (from the perspective of authors and editors) to advance our field. SUMMARY Empirical research in financial economics relies too much on p ‐values, which are poorly understood in the first place. Journals want to publish papers with positive results and this incentivizes researchers to engage in data mining and “ p ‐hacking.” The outcome will likely be an embarrassing number of false positives—effects that will not be repeated in the future. The minimum Bayes factor (which is a function of the p ‐value) combined with prior odds provides a simple solution that can be reported alongside the usual p ‐value. The Bayesianized p ‐value answers the question: What is the probability that the null is true? The same technique can be used to answer: What threshold of t ‐statistic do I need so that there is only a 5% chance that the null is true? The threshold depends on the economic plausibility of the hypothesis.","wordCount":286,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Campbell R. Harvey"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","A","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12530","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-86137149511b80e0","title":"Conflict and social capital: Evidence from the Russian War against Ukraine","abstract":"Recovery policies should prioritize mental health initiatives alongside financial support to strengthen social cohesion and institutional trust. This study investigates the relationship between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and social capital. Using survey data of the Ukrainian population, we apply two measures of conflict exposure: geocoded conflict data and self-reported war experience. We find that objective war events are associated with lower levels of prosocial behavior and institutional trust, while subjective war experiences show a positive correlation with prosociality and a negative correlation with institutional trust. These findings highlight the complex interplay between objective and subjective war measures and underscores the importance of considering both quantitative and qualitative aspects of war experiences in understanding their impact on human behavior.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Georg Hoch","Andreas Pondorfer","Viktoriia Yuriivna Shkola"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.02.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8626f5acbf29636b","title":"Combinable products, price discrimination, and collusion","abstract":"We analyze the effect of different pricing schemes on the ability of horizontally differentiated firms to sustain collusion when customers are able to mix products to achieve a better match of their preferences. We compare the impacts on the likelihood of collusion and on consumer welfare from three pricing schemes: two-part tariffs, linear prices, and quantity-independent fixed fees. We find that a ban of either price component of the two-part tariff makes it more difficult to sustain collusion at profit-maximizing prices. We also find that whereas linear pricing is the most beneficial pricing schedule for customers in the absence of collusion, it is the most harmful pricing schedule for customers in the presence of collusion.","wordCount":115,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Hendrik Döpper","Alexander Rasch"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103071","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-864265ad890d32e0","title":"The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison","abstract":"This paper compares the COVID-19 recession in the euro area (EA) and the US using an estimated multi-region New Keynesian macroeconomic model. To capture quarterly dynamics from 2020 onwards, we introduce relevant extensions such as ‘forced’ savings, extensive versus intensive employment margins, and trade in commodities as inputs to production and final demand. Transitory (‘forced’) savings are central to account for the behaviour of economic activity in both regions during the pandemic, which was strongly driven by private consumption, alongside shocks to domestic demand and foreign activity. The model highlights the importance of demand recovery and rising commodity prices for the inflation acceleration during 2021–22. EA inflation has a stronger supply component (including commodity prices) compared to a stronger demand component in the US.","wordCount":124,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Roberta Cardani","Philipp Pfeiffer","Marco Ratto","Lukas Vogel"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104556","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8646bf9750b6a4e4","title":"The Impact of Health Insurance on Preventive Care and Health Behaviors: Evidence from the First Two Years of the ACA Medicaid Expansions","abstract":"The U.S. population receives suboptimal levels of preventive care and has a high prevalence of risky health behaviors. One goal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was to increase preventive care and improve health behaviors by expanding access to health insurance. This paper estimates how the ACA-facilitated state-level expansions of Medicaid in 2014 affected these outcomes. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and a difference-in-differences model that compares states that did and did not expand Medicaid, we examine the impact of the expansions on preventive care (e.g., dental visits, immunizations, mammograms, cancer screenings), risky health behaviors (e.g., smoking, heavy drinking, lack of exercise, obesity), and self-assessed health. We find that the expansions increased insurance coverage and access to care among the targeted population of low-income childless adults. The expansions also increased use of certain forms of preventive care, but there is no evidence that they increased ex ante moral hazard (i.e., there is no evidence that risky health behaviors increased in response to health insurance coverage). The Medicaid expansions also modestly improved self-assessed health.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Kosali Simon","Aparna Soni","John Cawley"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21972","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-865660e4763b1cc9","title":"Digital technologies and productivity: A firm-level investigation","abstract":"We characterize the process of digital transformation of Italian firms and the impact on TFP. Using information of unusual breadth on different types of investments in digital technologies, we consider various dimensions of digital adoption such as whether firms invested in advanced domains (like AI) or bundles of more than one technology. We investigate the effects of digital technologies on productivity using alternative criteria to classify firms as digital adopters. With our baseline definition, the estimated effect on the percentage change in TFP between 2015 and 2018 is about one percentage point (0.97). With more restrictive definitions of digital adoption, the estimated impact is found to be larger, and it is largest when digital adoption is associated with investments in at least one AI-related technology. We also show that, in general, the effect of digital adoption is more sizeable in the service sector, in larger firms and in older firms.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Francesco Nucci","Chiara Puccioni","Ottavio Ricchi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106524","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-866130024c517701","title":"Growth option and debt maturity with equity default swaps in a regime-switching framework","abstract":"We consider a firm with assets-in-place and a growth option. There is a funding gap for the expansion investment, which is covered by entering into an equity-for-guarantee swap or fee-for-guarantee swap. We explicitly derive all contingent claim prices with the pricing and timing of the growth option taking business cycle and debt maturity into account. For short-term loan, we produce an explanation why Chinese government suggests that guarantee fee rate should be approximately the fraction 50% of the interest rate of bank loans with the same maturity, but for long-term debt, we show this fraction is too small.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Pengfei Luo","Zhaojun Yang"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000682","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-866cda0e21822257","title":"Heterogeneous firm responses to increases in high-skilled workers: Evidence from China's college enrollment expansion","abstract":"Over the past several decades, the returns to college education have steadily increased in many countries of the world despite an increased supply of college graduates. In this paper, using local-labor market data on the composition of the labor force combined with detailed firm-level data covering the period of a large-scale expansion of college enrollment in China, we seek to identify within-firm adjustments to labor market changes. The empirical work is guided by a model in which there are two types of production technologies, characterized by two different types of capitals, one skill-biased and the other labor-biased. The empirical results, consistent with the model and the observed trends in schooling and rates of return, indicate that there were significant adjustments in capital and R&D within-firms in response to an enlarged college-educated labor force.","wordCount":133,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Shuaizhang Feng","Xiaoyu Xia"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101791","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-866edc2f8cb6181f","title":"Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence","abstract":"We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960 to 2010, we obtain measurement error-corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Aaron Chalfin","Justin McCrary"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00694","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8673325b07ba0829","title":"The minsky moment as the revenge of entropy","abstract":"Considering macroeconomies as systems subject to stochastic forms of entropic equilibria, we shall consider how deviations driven by positive feedbacks as in a speculative bubble can drive such an economy into an anti-entropic state that can suddenly collapse back into an entropic state, with such a collapse taking the form of a Minsky moment. This can manifest itself as shifts in the boundary between the portion of the income distribution that is best modeled as Boltzmann–Gibbs and that best modeled as a Paretian power law.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["J. Barkley Rosser"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000421","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-86b02140109f2cd5","title":"Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires","abstract":"We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application reviews, and Major League Baseball umpire pitch calls. The evidence is most consistent with the law of small numbers and the gambler’s fallacy—people underestimating the likelihood of sequential streaks occurring by chance—leading to negatively autocorrelated decisions that result in errors. The negative autocorrelation is stronger among more moderate and less experienced decision makers, following longer streaks of decisions in one direction, when the current and previous cases share similar characteristics or occur close in time, and when decision makers face weaker incentives for accuracy. Other explanations for negatively autocorrelated decisions such as quotas, learning, or preferences to treat all parties fairly are less consistent with the evidence, though we cannot completely rule out sequential contrast effects as an alternative explanation.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Daniel L. Chen","Tobias J. Moskowitz","Kelly Shue"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-86b2713e7b353177","title":"Generative AI and deceptive news consumption","abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the effects of advancements in generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) on the news media market. We model a representative consumer who allocates their time between reading news and deceptive articles. We find that GenAI may induce consumers to inefficiently reallocate their time and increase the consumption of the lower value good, i.e. deceptive content (clickbait articles or fake news). Therefore, early-stage GenAI distorts the incentives of consumers and reduces their welfare. After GenAI technology reaches a certain threshold, however, consumers start benefiting from its advancements. Finally, we find that the negative effects of early-stage GenAI are exacerbated as they induce a lower level of investment in news production.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Luca Sandrini","Róbert Somogyi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111317","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-86bafcee566cddb2","title":"Political elections and market reactions: The ‘Trump effect’ on green stocks","abstract":"Firms with better environmental scores performed worse. The election of Donald Trump as the 45 th president of the United States and his sceptical positions on climate threaten the fight against climate change, potentially weakening investors’ green concerns. Through an event study approach, we aim to analyse the reaction of the U.S. stock market to the latest presidential election, exploring the investors’ reactions across sectors. We find a strong heterogeneous reaction across sectors. Moreover, we show that the worst performance in the short period is attributable to companies with better performance on environmental issues, which could mean an adjustment of investors’ assessment criteria in anticipation of President Trump's anti-climate policies, reduced transition risk for \"brown\" firms and lower benefits for firms excelling in environmental performance.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Simona Cosma","Stefano Cosma","Luca Gambarelli","Daniela Pennetta","Giuseppe Rimo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112261","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-86bf8f17f5de1a8c","title":"Microcredit and willingness to pay for environmental quality: Evidence from a randomized-controlled trial of finance for sanitation in rural Cambodia","abstract":"Low willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental quality in developing countries is a key research question in environmental economics. One explanation is that missing credit markets may suppress WTP for environmental improvements that require large up-front investments. We test the impact of microloans on WTP for hygienic latrines via a randomized controlled trial in 30 villages in rural Cambodia. We find that microcredit dramatically raises WTP for improved latrines, with 60% of households in the Financing arm willing to purchase at an unsubsidized price, relative to 25% in the Non-financing arm. Effects on latrine installation are positive but muted by several factors, including a negative peer effect: randomly induced purchases by neighbors reduce a household's probability of installing its own latrine. On methodological grounds, this paper shows that a \"decision-focused evaluation\" can be integrated into academic analysis to provide insight into questions of general interest.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Ariel Ben Yishay","Andrew Fraker","Raymond Guiteras","Giordano Palloni","Neil Buddy Shah","Stuart Shirrell","Paul Wang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.11.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-86cfc4dad93cb9d0","title":"Off-farm employment and time allocation in on-farm work in rural China from gender perspective","abstract":"This paper sheds light on how the growing number of off-farm employees affects the labor allocation of female and male left-behind farmers in the Chinese agricultural sector. We find no direct effect of off-farm employment on left behind workers' total working time in farming, nor do we observe a gender difference in this respect. However, we do find that increasing off-farm work is associated with fewer days worked on staple crops, and in the harvesting and sales stages of the production process. Hiring labor and buying agricultural services also impact left behind workers' time allocation. Moreover, we find that in China, contrary to several other developing countries, there is no trend towards a feminization of agriculture, but rather a tendency in the reverse direction.","wordCount":124,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Weiliang Su","Tor Eriksson","Linxiu Zhang","Yunli Bai"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.08.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-86d6e8e43c5f727b","title":"Social-status ranking: a hidden channel to gender inequality under competition","abstract":"Competition involves two main dimensions, a rivalry for resources and the ranking of relative performance. If socially recognized, the latter yields a ranking in terms of social status. The rivalry for resources resulting from competitive incentives has been found to negatively affect women’s performance relative to that of men. However, little is known about gender differences in the performance consequences of social-status ranking. In our experiments we introduce a novel design that allows us to isolate the effects of status ranking from those caused by a rivalry for resources. Subjects do a time-limited task where they need to search for numbers and add them up. Performance is straightforwardly measured by the number of correct summations. When there is no status ranking we find no gender differences in the number of attempted summations or in performance. By contrast, when there is status ranking men significantly increase the number of attempted summations as well as the number of correct summations. Remarkably, when women are subjected to status ranking, they significantly decrease the number of attempted summations. The net result is striking. With status ranking men attempt more summations and correctly solve many more than women. These differences are markedly large and statistically highly significant. Our results suggest that increased participation in competitive environments could harm women’s labor market success along a hidden channel.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Arthur Schram","Jordi Brandts","Klarita Gërxhani"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9563-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-86e67522d51d59e1","title":"Multidimensional Skill Mismatch","abstract":"What determines the earnings of a worker relative to his peers in the same occupation? What makes a worker fail in one occupation but succeed in another? More broadly, what are the factors that determine the productivity of a worker-occupation match? To help answer questions like these, we propose an empirical measure of multidimensional skill mismatch that is based on the discrepancy between the portfolio of skills required by an occupation and the portfolio of abilities possessed by a worker for learning those skills. This measure arises naturally in a dynamic model of occupational choice and human capital accumulation with multidimensional skills and Bayesian learning about one’s ability to learn skills. Not only does mismatch depress wage growth in the current occupation, it also leaves a scarring effect—by stunting skill acquisition—that reduces wages in future occupations. Mismatch also predicts different aspects of occupational switching behavior. We construct the empirical analog of our skill mismatch measure from readily available US panel data on individuals and occupations and find empirical support for these implications. The magnitudes of these effects are large: moving from the worst- to best-matched decile can improve wages by 11 percent per year for the rest of one’s career.","wordCount":200,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Fatih Guvenen","Burhan Kuruscu","Satoshi Tanaka","David Wiczer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160241","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-86f34c7b29a1524b","title":"Cryptocurrencies, currency competition, and the impossible trinity","abstract":"We analyze a two-country economy with complete markets, featuring two national currencies as well as a global (crypto)currency. If the global currency is used in both countries, the national nominal interest rates must be equal and the exchange rate between the national currencies is a risk-adjusted martingale. Deviation from interest rate equality implies the risk of approaching the zero lower bound or the abandonment of the national currency. We call this result Crypto-Enforced Monetary Policy Synchronization (CEMPS). If the global currency is backed by interest-bearing assets, additional and tight restrictions on monetary policy arise. Thus, the classic Impossible Trinity becomes even less reconcilable.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Pierpaolo Benigno","Linda Schilling","Harald Uhlig"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103601","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-86f72214a328cea5","title":"Short run reference points and long run performance. (No) Evidence from running data","abstract":"What motivates runners to bunch at round finishing times? Is it merely the immediate gratification that round time finishing brings, or do athletes set single-stage round time subgoals to help them attain multiple-stage end goals related to their future performance? To examine this question, I construct a new panel data set that covers all finishing times of 7000 major running events of different distances organized in the Netherlands between 1996–2016. For all distances and age groups, I find strong evidence of bunching at round finishing times for both genders, but men engage in round time finishing more frequently than women. No relation is found between round time finishing and running experience. In shorter distance runs, round time finishing is much more prevalent when the reference time is ambitious. This is no proof that runners do not set round time subgoals. It however does suggest that meeting or just missing such a single-race subgoal makes no difference for a runner’s future performance in terms of continuing to race, running faster or running longer distances. It also suggests that the excessive amount of round time finishes we observe in all types of races is mainly driven by the immediate gratification (and possibly status) it gives the runner.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Adriaan R. Soetevent"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102471","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-86f973ad6a53b0bb","title":"State Capacity, Reciprocity, and the Social Contract","abstract":"This paper explores the role of civic culture in expanding fiscal capacity by developing a model based on reciprocal obligations: citizens pay their taxes and the state provides public goods. Civic culture evolves over time according to the relative payoff of civic‐minded and materialist citizens. A strong civic culture manifests itself as high tax revenues sustained by high levels of voluntary tax compliance and provision of public goods. This captures the idea of government as a reciprocal social contract between the state and its citizens. The paper highlights the role of political institutions and common interests in the emergence of civic culture.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Timothy Besley"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16863","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-86ff1dec28208635","title":"Carbon trading amidst global uncertainty: The role of policy and geopolitical uncertainty","abstract":"Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical uncertainty (GPU) can fuel speculation, flood the carbon trading market with excess allowances, and undermine the scheme's efficacy in tackling climate change. While the existing literature documents the adverse effects of uncertainty on macroeconomic and financial variables, the impact on the carbon trading risk remains unclear. This paper analyses the effects of EPU and GPU on the volatility and other risk levels in the carbon market using daily European Union Emissions Trading Scheme data (February 2, 2009 to 8/31/2022) and monthly data on the uncertainty indicators (2009M2–2022M8). The findings reveal that unstable policies and geopolitical tensions heighten carbon market risk since global uncertainty increases information asymmetry and risk premium and causes a delay in investment decisions. Future deliberation among the Cooperation of Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should incorporate measures to mitigate global uncertainty while pushing for decarbonization and transition to clean technology.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Idris A. Adediran","Raymond Swaray"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106279","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-871fa860a1682323","title":"On the scope of externalities in experimental markets","abstract":"We study how the scope of negative externalities from market activity affects the willingness of market actors to exhibit social responsibility. Using the laboratory experimental paradigm introduced by Bartling et al. (Q J Econ 130(1):219–266, 2015), we compare the voluntary internalization of negative social impacts by market actors in cases where the negative externality is diffused among many subjects or is concentrated on a single subject. We (1) replicate earlier results demonstrating substantial degrees of market social responsibility and (2) find that the willingness of market actors to act pro-socially is only slightly affected by whether the impacts are concentrated or diffused.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Björn Bartling","Vanessa Valero","Roberto A. Weber"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9549-9","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-87258baf1b3cd78e","title":"The Evolution of Income Composition Inequality in Italy, 1989–2016","abstract":"We study the evolution of inequality in income composition in terms of capital and labor income in Italy between 1989 and 2016. We document a rise in the share of capital income accruing to the bottom of the distribution, while the top of the distribution increases its share of labor income. This implies a falling degree of income composition inequality in the period considered and a weaker relationship between the functional and personal distribution of income in Italy. This result is robust to various specifications of self‐employment income; nonetheless, it hinges crucially on the treatment of rental incomes. While the dynamics of imputed rents has brought about a more equitable distribution of capital incomes across the income distribution, that of actual rents has led to higher concentration of capital incomes at the top in the decade preceding the outbreak of the financial crisis. Finally, we conceptualize a rule of thumb for policy makers seeking to reduce income inequality in the long run.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Roberto Iacono","Marco Ranaldi"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12555","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8731f5f217113ba9","title":"Global warming and urbanization","abstract":"Analyzing 118 countries between 1960 and 2016, we find that higher temperatures correlate with higher urbanization rates in the long run, where this relationship is much more pronounced than any short-term linkage. The long-run relationship between global warming and urbanization is also conditional upon country-specific conditions. This long-run association is especially relevant in poorer and more agriculture-dependent countries with an urban bias as well as in initially non-urban countries in hotter climate zones. We also provide suggestive evidence that warming contributes to losses in agricultural productivity and to pro-urban shifts in public goods provision and that the global warming-urbanization nexus is partly mediated through these channels. Consequently, we argue that the estimated long-run relationship between temperature and urbanization partly captures the potential impact of increasing temperatures on urbanization via a rural push (by impairing agriculture) and an urban pull (via an increased demand for public goods primarily supplied in cities).","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Marc Helbling","Daniel Meierrieks"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00924-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-87359bbbe77dc105","title":"The National Rise in Residential Segregation","abstract":"Exploiting complete census manuscript files, we derive a new segregation measure using the racial similarity of next-door neighbors. The fineness of our measure reveals new facts not captured by traditional segregation indices. First, segregation doubled nationally from 1880 to 1940. Second, contrary to prior estimates, Southern urban areas were the most segregated in the country and remained so over time. Third, increasing segregation in the twentieth century was not strictly driven by urbanization, black migration, or white flight: it resulted from increasing racial sorting at the household level. In all areas—North and South, urban and rural—segregation increased dramatically.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Trevon D. Logan","John Parman"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-873b44b1688ef86c","title":"The amplifying effect of capitalization rates on housing supply","abstract":"We provide empirical evidence that increases in housing rental income lead to a larger supply response than price increases of the same percentage value. We rationalize this differential in supply responsiveness with an amplification mechanism arising from a downward revision of capitalization rates following a rental income increase. We document that the amplification of the housing supply price elasticity is less pronounced in geographically constrained and tightly regulated neighborhoods and areas having more sophisticated investors. Our findings hold valuable lessons for public policies affecting the housing rental income, such as rent control and housing subsidies.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Simon Büchler","Maximilian von Ehrlich","Olivier Schöni"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103370","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-87415297a65c2448","title":"Access to language training and the local integration of refugees","abstract":"This paper examines whether language classes raise refugees’ language proficiency and improve their socio-economic integration. Our identification strategy leverages the opening, closing, and gradual expansion of local language training centers in Denmark, as well as the quasi-random assignment of the refugees to locations with varying proximity to a language training center. First, we show that refugees’ distance from the assigned language training center is as good as random conditional on initial placement. Second, we show that a one-hour decrease in commuting time increases the total hours of class attended by 46 to 71 hours. Third, we use this novel identification strategy to show that 100 additional hours of language class increases fluency in the Danish language by 8–9 percent, post-language training human capital acquisition by 11–13 percent and improve the integration of the refugees in the communities where they were initially placed, as measured by the lower exit rates from those same communities and an almost 70 percent reduction in mobility to the largest, most immigrant-dense cities in Denmark.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Mette Foged","Cynthia van der Werf"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102366","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8744d194fa3d85e4","title":"Cheating, incentives, and money manipulation","abstract":"We use different incentive schemes to study truth-telling in a die-roll task when people are asked to reveal the number rolled privately. We find no significant evidence of cheating when there are no financial incentives associated with the reports, but do find evidence of such when the reports determine financial gains or losses (in different treatments). We find no evidence of loss aversion in the standard case in which subjects receive their earnings in a sealed envelope at the end of the session. When subjects manipulate the possible earnings, we find evidence of less cheating, particularly in the loss setting; in fact, there is no significant difference in behavior between the non-incentivized case and the loss setting with money manipulation. We interpret our findings in terms of the moral cost of cheating and differences in the perceived trust and beliefs in the gain and the loss frames.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Gary Charness","Celia Blanco-Jimenez","Lara Ezquerra","Ismael Rodríguez-Lara"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9584-1","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-874a7219d860cec1","title":"Decommodification as a foundation for ecological economics","abstract":"Ecological economists have emphasized the study of commodification (i.e., the development of market-based exchange and valuation) rather than decommodification processes (i.e., the degree of immunization from market dependency). This is surprising given the fact that large-scale decommodification may be our best option for a post-growth transition so dear to many ecological economists. Based on Heinsohn and Steiger's theory of ownership, we seek to provide an institutional foundation to processes of (de)commodification. These two authors distinguish between ‘property’ and ‘possession’, two bundles of rights generating different logics and consequences. We illustrate this approach with three cases taken from an advanced capitalist economy, Switzerland, showing how commodification and decommodification processes may appear together or vigorously oppose each other. Cooperatives, forests and municipal land are examples of (partial) decommodified assets that follow a logic of possession and are therefore more likely to be sustainable. It is high time that the study of decommodification becomes central to ecological economics.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Jean‐David Gerber","Jean-David GERBER","Julien-François GERBER"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.08.030","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-874ef6ace5801247","title":"What Can DNA Exonerations Tell Us about Racial Differences in Wrongful-Conviction Rates?","abstract":"We show that data on DNA exonerations can be informative about racial differences in wrongful-conviction rates under some assumptions regarding the DNA-exoneration process. We argue that, with respect to rape cases, the observed data and the plausibility of the required assumptions combine to strongly suggest that the wrongful-conviction rate is significantly higher among black convicts than white convicts. By contrast, we argue that the ability of data on DNA exonerations to reveal information about racial differences in wrongful-conviction rates for murder is much more limited.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["David Bjerk","Eric Helland"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707080","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-874f45fe31abb8c1","title":"Convenient primary care and emergency hospital utilisation","abstract":"Participation and utilisation decisions lie at the heart of many public policy questions. I contribute new evidence by using hospital records to examine how access to primary care services affects utilisation of hospital Emergency Departments in England. Using a natural experiment in the roll out of services, I first show that access to primary care reduces Emergency Department visits. Additional strategies then allow me to separate descriptively four aspects of primary care access: proximity, opening hours, need to make an appointment, and eligibility. Convenience-oriented services divert three times as many patients from emergency visits, largely because patients can attend without appointments.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Edward W. Pinchbeck"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102242","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-875cdb236e6c8c1c","title":"A new look at physicians’ responses to financial incentives: Quality of care, practice characteristics, and motivations","abstract":"There is considerable controversy about what causes (in)effectiveness of physician performance pay in improving the quality of care. Using a behavioral experiment with German primary-care physicians, we study the incentive effect of performance pay on service provision and quality of care. To explore whether variations in quality are based on the incentive scheme and the interplay with physicians' real-world profit orientation and patient-regarding motivations, we link administrative data on practice characteristics and survey data on physicians' attitudes with experimental data. We find that, under performance pay, quality increases by about 7pp compared to baseline capitation. While the effect increases with the severity of illness, the bonus level does not significantly affect the quality of care. Data linkage indicates that primary-care physicians in high-profit practices provide a lower quality of care. Physicians' other-regarding motivations and attitudes are significant drivers of high treatment quality.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jeannette Brosig‐Koch","Heike Hennig‐Schmidt","Nadja Kairies‐Schwarz","Johanna Kokot","Daniel Wiesen"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102862","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-87670145e2accda0","title":"Watersheds in Child Mortality: The Role of Effective Water and Sewerage Infrastructure, 1880–1920","abstract":"We explore the first period of sustained decline in child mortality in the U.S. and provide estimates of the independent and combined effects of clean water and effective sewerage systems on under-five mortality. Our case is Massachusetts, 1880 to 1920, when authorities developed a sewerage and water district in the Boston area. We find the two interventions were complementary and together account for approximately one-third of the decline in log child mortality during the 41 years. Our findings are relevant to the developing world and suggest that a piecemeal approach to infrastructure investments is unlikely to significantly improve child health.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Marcella Alsan","Claudia Goldin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700766","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-877c077bb65faf37","title":"Present bias for monetary and dietary rewards","abstract":"Economists model self-control problems through time-inconsistent preferences. Empirical tests of these preferences largely rely on experimental elicitation using monetary rewards, with several recent studies failing to find present bias for money. In this paper, we compare estimates of present bias for money with estimates for healthy and unhealthy foods. In a within-subjects longitudinal experiment with 697 low-income Chinese high school students, we find strong present bias for both money and food, and that individual measures of present bias are moderately correlated across reward types. Our experimental measures of time preferences over both money and foods predict field behaviors including alcohol consumption and academic performance.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Stephen L. Cheung","Agnieszka Tymula","Xueting Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-022-09749-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-877f77aa98f5cd57","title":"Cash burns: An inventory model with a cash-credit choice","abstract":"A dynamic cash-management model is analysed where agents choose whether to pay with cash or credit at every point in time. In the model credit usage depends on the current stock of cash, a novel result that matches recent micro evidence on households’ payment choices. The optimality of such a decision rule is novel and cannot be obtained by models where cash-credit decisions are made at the “beginning” of each period. We discuss how to use the model to account for cross country-evidence on the intensity of credit usage and for several statistics on the size and frequency of cash withdrawals. The model is used to assess the household’s welfare cost of phasing out cash.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Fernando Álvarez","Francesco Lippi"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.07.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-878127af7124d1eb","title":"What Causes the Child Penalty? Evidence from Adopting and Same-Sex Couples","abstract":"New parenthood causes large decreases in labor market incomes for mothers but not fathers, a stylized fact known as the “child penalty.” We combine a simple household model with estimates of child penalties in heterosexual nonadopting, adopting, and same-sex couples to better understand what causes the child penalty in heterosexual nonadopting couples. Our results largely rule out giving birth and the father’s advantage in the labor market as mechanisms, leaving preferences, gender norms, and discrimination as the main explanations. In addition, our paper provides novel evidence on the impact of children on labor market outcomes of adopting and same-sex couples.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Martin Eckhoff Andresen","Emily Nix"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718565","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-878ae5a7c6b6eca4","title":"Wealth Inequality in Sweden: What can we Learn from Capitalized Income Tax Data?","abstract":"This paper presents new estimates of wealth inequality in Sweden during 2000–2012, linking wealth register data up to 2007 and individually capitalized wealth based on income and property tax registers for the period thereafter when a repeal of the wealth tax stopped the collection of individual wealth statistics. We find that wealth inequality increased after 2007 and that more unequal bank holdings and housing appear to be important drivers. We also evaluate the performance of the capitalization method by contrasting its estimates and their dispersion with observed stocks in register data up to 2007. The goodness‐of‐fit varies tremendously across assets and we conclude that although capitalized wealth estimates may well approximate overall inequality levels and trends, they are highly sensitive to assumptions and the quality of the underlying data sources.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Jacob Lundberg","Daniel Waldenström"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12294","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-878f55b149990c43","title":"What Do Test Scores Miss? The Importance of Teacher Effects on Non–Test Score Outcomes","abstract":"Teachers affect a variety of student outcomes through their influence on both cognitive and noncognitive skill. I proxy for students’ noncognitive skill using non–test score behaviors. These behaviors include absences, suspensions, course grades, and grade repetition in ninth grade. Teacher effects on test scores and those on behaviors are weakly correlated. Teacher effects on behaviors predict larger impacts on high school completion and other longer-run outcomes than their effects on test scores. Relative to using only test score measures, using effects on both test score and noncognitive measures more than doubles the variance of predictable teacher impacts on longer-run outcomes.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["C. Kirabo Jackson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8796ef6a14b56a63","title":"Open Borders for Business? Causes and Consequences of the Regulation of Foreign Entry","abstract":"While an extensive literature examines the regulation of entry by domestic firms, the causes and consequences of the regulation of entry by foreign firms have not been previously considered. First, we analyze the roles of culture, legal origin, democracy, and geographic openness as determinants of regulation of foreign entry. Strong evidence illustrates that more individualist cultures and geographically open countries regulate foreign entry less. Our findings also show that cultural values matter more in countries with common law traditions. In contrast, the association between democracy and the regulation of foreign entry is fragile. Next, we examine the consequences from foreign entry regulation. Evidence suggests a strong, negative, and economically significant association between the regulation of foreign entry and inward foreign direct investment (FDI). The regulation of domestic entry, however, is positively associated with FDI inflows. This result is robust to controlling for a variety of economic, cultural, and institutional variables.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Lewis Davis","Claudia R. Williamson"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12301","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-87b7dd9c776d6bb8","title":"Linear panel regressions with two-way unobserved heterogeneity","abstract":"We study linear panel regression models in which the unobserved error term is an unknown smooth function of two-way unobserved fixed effects. In standard additive or interactive fixed effect models the individual specific and time specific effects are assumed to enter with a known functional form (additive or multiplicative). In this paper, we allow for this functional form to be more general and unknown. We discuss two different estimation approaches that allow consistent estimation of the regression parameters in this setting as the number of individuals and the number of time periods grow to infinity. The first approach uses the interactive fixed effect estimator in Bai (2009), which is still applicable here, as long as the number of factors in the estimation grows asymptotically. The second approach first discretizes the two-way unobserved heterogeneity (similar to what Bonhomme et al., 2021 are doing for one-way heterogeneity) and then estimates a simple linear fixed effect model with additive two-way grouped fixed effects. For both estimation methods we obtain asymptotic convergence results, perform Monte Carlo simulations, and employ the estimators in an empirical application to UK house price data.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Hugo Freeman","Martin Weidner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105498","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-87bfd0bde3befc57","title":"Technology and Geography in the Second Industrial Revolution: New Evidence from the Margins of Trade","abstract":"Belle Époque Belgium recorded an unprecedented trade boom. Exploiting a new granular trade dataset, we find that the number of products delivered abroad and destinations serviced more than doubled in less than 40 years. To explain this remarkable achievement, we study the relationship between trade costs and the intensive and extensive margins of trade. The establishment of a foreign diplomatic network that lowered beachhead costs and enabled the entry of new products was an essential fact of the trade boom. Interestingly, the expansion in trade in certain sectors did not translate into faster productivity growth. We offer some explanations.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Michael Huberman","Christopher M. Meissner","Kim Oosterlinck"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-87c4d740c90f9d2e","title":"The effects of rainfall shocks on divorce requests: Evidence from Colonial Senegal","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of rainfall variations, as a proxy for agricultural income changes, on divorce requests in colonial Senegal, utilising judicial records from native courts during the period 1906–1922. A major finding is that negative precipitation shocks during the third quarter, which coincides with the growing season of the majority of crops cultivated in Senegal, result in an increase in the number of requests for divorce brought before courts in the following year. The impact appears to be concentrated in specific regions of Senegal and during a period when the agricultural income of farmers may be particularly susceptible to fluctuations in precipitation. The rise in marital dissolution can be attributed to an increase in intra-household conflicts over reduced resource allocation. In the context under consideration, the bride price frequently paid on the occasion of marriage may be viewed by husbands as a transferable asset which they may wish to recuperate by pressuring their wives into filing for divorce. This may serve to exacerbate the issue. This study contributes to the economic history literature by utilising unique colonial court records to document family dynamics in interaction with the economic environment.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Karine Marazyan"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.02.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-87feeca430a43046","title":"Who Loses under Cap-and-Trade Programs? The Labor Market Effects of the NO<sub>x</sub> Budget Trading Program","abstract":"This paper tests how a major cap-and-trade program, known as the NOx budget trading program (NBP), affected labor markets in the manufacturing sector. The cap-and-trade program dramatically decreased levels of NOx emissions and added substantial costs to regulated firms. Using a triple-differences approach, I examine how labor markets adjusted in manufacturing industries that were exposed to the program. I find that overall employment in the manufacturing sector dropped by 1.3%, with energy-intensive industries losing up to 4.8%. Employment declines are shown to have occurred primarily through decreased hiring rates rather than increased separation rates, thus mitigating the impact on incumbent workers. Young workers experienced the largest employment declines, and earnings of newly hired workers fell after the regulation began.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["E. Mark Curtis"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00680","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-880dfa0d2a1cf4f1","title":"Informality, Consumption Taxes, and Redistribution","abstract":"Can taxes on consumption redistribute in developing countries? Contrary to consensus, we show that taxing consumption is progressive once we account for informal consumption. Using household expenditure surveys in 32 countries, we proxy for informal consumption using the type of store where purchases occur. We establish that the budget share spent in informal stores steeply declines with income, so that richer households pay a substantially larger share of their income in taxes. Our findings imply that the widespread policy of exempting food from taxation is hard to justify on equity grounds in low-income countries.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Pierre Bachas","Lucie Gadenne","Anders Jensen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad095","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-881383b6d8538318","title":"School district revenue shocks, resource allocations, and student achievement: Evidence from the universe of U.S. wind energy installations","abstract":"We examine the impact of wind energy installation on school district finances and student achievement using data on the timing, location, and capacity of the universe of U.S. installations from 1995 through 2016. Wind energy installation substantially increased district revenues, causing large increases in capital outlays, but only modest increases in current spending, and little to no change in class sizes or teacher salaries. We find zero impact on student test scores. Using administrative data from Texas, the country’s top wind energy producer, we find zero impact of wind energy installation on high school completion and other longer-run student outcomes.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Eric J. Brunner","Ben Hoen","Joshua Hyman"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104586","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-88206d7d74c7c955","title":"Coase Lecture—Taxes, Targets and the Social Cost of Carbon","abstract":"In environmental economics, the marginal external cost of emitting a pollutant determines the optimal abatement policy, which might take the form of an emissions tax. But the marginal external cost is often difficult to estimate. This is especially the case when it comes to climate change; estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) range from around $10 per metric ton to well over $200 per metric ton, and there has been little or no movement toward a consensus number. Partly as a result, rather than an SCC‐based carbon tax, climate policy has focused on a set of targets that would put limits on temperature increases or atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, which in turn imply targets for emission reductions. Economics, however, can tell us little about whether such targets are socially optimal. I discuss the trade‐off between taxes versus targets as the focus of policy, explain why it has been so difficult to estimate a marginal SCC, and suggest an approach to estimating an average SCC through the use of expert elicitation. I argue that such an approach could serve as the basis for a harmonized carbon tax.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Robert S. Pindyck"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12243","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8828875088e8546b","title":"Time-varying relative risk aversion: Theoretical mechanism and empirical evidence","abstract":"This paper explores the issue of understanding time-varying relative risk aversion with household-level data on two classical portfolio choice problems. First, we derive an analytic form solution to a parsimonious portfolio choice model with the preference given by Greenwood, Hercowitz and Huffman (1988, GHH), and then, the solution identifies four partial equilibrium effects in our model with the GHH preference on risky shares through two channels and two net effects whose signs hinge on the value of a key structural parameter. Based on household-level data, our empirical results from both mean and quantile regression models show clearly that wealth negatively affects risky shares and the estimated effects are statistically significant and robust, which is in line with the theory. Finally, we show that the GHH preference alone is not sufficient in explaining how risky shares respond to labor income in the household-level data.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Xuan Liu","Haiyong Liu","Zongwu Cai"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101535","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-884c31f6d7fecaca","title":"The Well‐Being Cost of Inflation Inequalities","abstract":"In terms of well‐being, how costly is inflation? To answer this question, empirical evaluations have typically studied average inflation rates at the national level, thus disregarding the role of inflation inequalities within a country. In this article, we relax the assumptions that heterogeneous consumers face homogeneous inflation rates, and study the correlation between price changes and self‐reported satisfaction with living standards. We use newly available data from France and adopt two approaches. First, we focus on individually perceived inflation and use the internationally harmonized Opinion Price Index as a proxy for experienced inflation. Variations in perceived inflation help predict well‐being differences among consumers, even when controlling for relevant sociodemographic factors, personality traits, and common method variance. We estimate their marginal impact to be higher than equivalent variations in nominal income. Second, we compare groups of consumers over time and find that changes in the price of a good disproportionately affect the relative well‐being of those who consume it. The study shows that the well‐being cost of the inflation crisis would be underestimated if looking at aggregate figures only.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Alberto Prati"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12631","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8851afe5fcd2216d","title":"Demand, wealth inequality and the business cycle","abstract":"We consider a flexible price continuous-time DSGE model of a closed economy populated by heterogeneous households subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk and aggregate TFP shocks. The economy produces a variety of imperfectly substitutable final goods. Our main innovation is a rich representation of household consumption and saving behavior allowing for a time-varying elasticity of substitution across varieties. Specifically, we consider a utility function displaying Increasing Elasticity of Substitution (IES). We provide a convenient approach to handle the complex dynamic programming problem implied by income heterogeneity, aggregate shocks and non-homothetic preferences. We show that IES preferences help to replicate important features of the wealth distribution observed in the data together with a plausible macroeconomic dynamics.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Lilia Cavallari","Stefano d’Addona","Paolo Porchia"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103693","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-887d40c69d5f71fc","title":"Sequential innovation, patent policy, and the dynamics of the replacement effect","abstract":"I study how patent policy—characterized by patent length and forward protection—affects Research and Development (R&D) dynamics, leadership persistence, and market structure. Firms' R&D investments increase as the patent's expiration date approaches. Through forward protection, followers internalize the leader's replacement effect. In protective systems, this internalization is substantial, reversing Arrow's traditional result: followers invest less than leaders at every moment of the patent's life. I study the policy that maximizes innovative activity. Overly protective policies decrease innovation pace through two mechanisms: delaying firms' investments toward the end of the patent's life and decreasing the number of firms performing R&D.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Álvaro Parra"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12287","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-88969d131b86f621","title":"Which Factors Matter to Investors? Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows","abstract":"When assessing a fund manager's skill, sophisticated investors will consider all factors (priced and unpriced) that explain cross-sectional variation in fund performance. We investigate which factors investors attend to by analyzing mutual fund flows as a function of recent returns decomposed into alpha and factor-related returns. Surprisingly, investors attend most to market risk (beta) when evaluating funds and treat returns attributable to size, value, momentum, and industry factors as alpha. Using proxies for investor sophistication (wealth, distribution channels, and periods of high investor sentiment), we find that more sophisticated investors use more sophisticated benchmarks when evaluating fund performance.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Brad M. Barber","Xing Huang","Terrance Odean"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw054","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-88a1523e529afbea","title":"Poverty and Migration in the Digital Age: Experimental Evidence on Mobile Banking in Bangladesh","abstract":"Rapid urbanization is reshaping economies and intensifying spatial inequalities. In Bangladesh, we experimentally introduced mobile banking to very poor rural households and family members who had migrated to the city, testing whether mobile technology can reduce inequality by modernizing traditional ways to transfer money. One year later, for active mobile banking users, urban-to-rural remittances increased by 26 percent of the baseline mean. Rural consumption increased by 7.5 percent, and extreme poverty fell. Rural households borrowed less, saved more, sent additional migrants, and consumed more in the lean season. Urban migrants experienced less poverty and saved more but bore costs, reporting worse health.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jean N. Lee","Jonathan Morduch","Saravana Ravindran","Abu Shonchoy","Hassan Zaman"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190067","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-88a63657f0fef17d","title":"Paving the way to modern growth: The Spanish Bourbon roads","abstract":"This paper analyses the impact that Spanish road construction had on local population growth between 1787 and 1857. We find that the increase in market potential associated to road accessibility had a substantial effect on local population growth. The impact was substantially higher on the municipalities that had a more diversified occupational structure. By contrast, the effect of the new network on population growth was negative in municipalities close but without direct access to the roads. We interpret these findings as evidence of a process of rural-to-rural migration due to the new roads.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Miquel-Àngel Garcia–López","Alfonso Herranz‐Loncán","Filippo Tassinari","Elisabet Viladecans‐Marsal"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101544","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-88b21271d12fd532","title":"The Impact of Providing Vision Screening and Free Eyeglasses on Academic Outcomes: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Title I Elementary Schools in Florida","abstract":"More than 20 percent of all school-aged children in the United States have vision problems, and low-income and minority children are disproportionately likely to have unmet vision care needs. Vision screening is common in U.S. schools, but it remains an open question whether screening alone is sufficient to improve student outcomes. We implemented a multi-armed randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of vision screening, and of vision screening accompanied by eye exams and eyeglasses, provided by a non-profit organization to Title I elementary schools in three large central Florida school districts. We find that providing additional/enhanced screening alone is generally insufficient to improve student achievement in math and reading. In contrast, providing screening along with free eye exams and free eyeglasses to students with vision problems improved student achievement as measured by standardized test scores. We find, averaging over all students (including those without vision problems), that this more comprehensive intervention increased the probability of passing the Florida Comprehensive Achievement Tests (FCATs) in reading and math by approximately 2.0 percentage points. We also present evidence that indicates that this impact fades out over time, indicating that follow-up actions after the intervention may be necessary to sustain these estimated achievement gains.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Paul Glewwe","Kristine West","Jong‐Wook Lee"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22043","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-88c303405c35fb69","title":"The Analysis of Human Feelings: A Practical Suggestion for a Robustness Test","abstract":"Governments, multinational companies, and researchers today collect unprecedented amounts of data on human feelings. These data provide information on citizens’ happiness, levels of customer satisfaction, employees’ satisfaction, mental stress, societal trust, and other important variables. Yet a key scientific difficulty tends to be downplayed, or even ignored, by many users of such information. Human feelings are not measured in objective cardinal units. This article aims to address some of the ensuing empirical challenges. It suggests an analytical way to approach the scientific complications of ordinal data. The article describes a dichotomous‐around‐the‐median (DAM) test, which, crucially, uses information only on direction within an ordering and deliberately discards the potentially unreliable statistical information in ordered data. Applying the proposed DAM approach, this article shows that it is possible to check and replicate some of the key conclusions of previous research—including earlier work on the effects upon human well‐being of higher income.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Jeffrey R. Bloem","Andrew J. Oswald"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12531","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-88e956846b83d48b","title":"Effects of stay-at-home orders on skill requirements in vacancy postings","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic and containment policies have had profound economic impacts on the labor market. Stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) implemented across most of the United States changed the way of people worked. In this paper, we quantify the effect of SAHO durations on skill demands to study how firms adjust labor demand within occupation. We use skill requirement information from the 2018 to 2021 online job vacancy posting data from Burning Glass Technologies, exploit the spatial variations in the SAHO duration, and use instrumental variables to correct for the endogeneity in the policy duration related to local social and economic factors. We find that policy durations have persistent impacts on the labor demand after restrictions are lifted. Longer SAHOs motivate management style transformation from people-oriented to operation-oriented by requiring more of operational and administrative skills and less of personality and people management skills to carry out standard workflows. SAHOs also change the focus of interpersonal skill demands from specific customer services to general communication such as social and writing skills. SAHOs more thoroughly affect occupations with partial work-from-home capacity. The evidence suggests SAHOs change management structure and communication in firms.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Ran Gu","Ling Zhong"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102342","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-88f0c7bd561d1f7a","title":"Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity","abstract":"Firms with high leverage experience a more pronounced increase in credit spreads than firms with low leverage in response to a monetary policy tightening. A large fraction of this increase is due to a component of credit spreads that is in excess of firms’ expected default risk. A stylized heterogeneous firm model with default risk, financially constrained intermediaries, and segmented financial markets is able to account for these facts. Our findings imply that financial intermediaries play an important role in shaping the transmission of monetary policy to firm-level outcomes.","wordCount":89,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Gareth Anderson","Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210455","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8904a4e448b795e8","title":"Natural disasters as macroeconomic tail risks","abstract":"We introduce quantile and moment impulse response functions for structural quantile vector autoregressive models. We use them to study how climate-related natural disasters affect the predictive distribution of output growth and inflation. Disasters strongly shift the forecast distribution particularly in the tails. They result in an initial sharp increase of the downside risk for growth, followed by a temporary rebound. Upside risk to inflation increases markedly for a few months and then subsides. As a result, natural disasters have a persistent impact on the conditional variance and skewness of macroeconomic aggregates which standard linear models estimating conditional mean dynamics fail to match. We perform a scenario analysis to evaluate the hypothetical effects of more frequent large disasters on the macroeconomy due to increased atmospheric carbon concentration. Our results indicate a substantially higher conditional volatility of growth and inflation as well as increased upside risk to inflation particularly in a scenario where only currently pledged climate policies are implemented.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Sulkhan Chavleishvili","Emanuel Moench"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105914","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-890f051b3596d49b","title":"Information design in competitive insurance markets","abstract":"This paper characterizes the optimal information structure in competitive insurance markets with adverse selection. We consider a regulator that assigns ratings to individuals according to their expected costs. Insurers observe these ratings and compete as in Akerlof (1970). The optimal rating system minimizes ex-ante risk subject to participation constraints. We prove that in any such market there exists a unique optimal system under which all individuals trade and the ratings match low-cost types with high-cost types negative assortatively. We provide a simple algorithm that yields the optimal system and examine implications for government regulations of insurance markets.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Daniel Garcia","Matan Tsur"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105160","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8918412952e309eb","title":"How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data","abstract":"We show that supply-side financial shocks have a large impact on firms’ investment. We develop a new methodology to separate firm borrowing shocks from bank supply shocks using a vast sample of matched bank-firm lending data. We decompose aggregate loan movements in Japan for the period 1990–2010 into bank, firm, industry, and common shocks. The high degree of financial institution concentration means that individual banks are large relative to the size of the economy, which creates a role for granular shocks as in Gabaix’s (2011) study. We show that idiosyncratic granular bank supply shocks explain 30–40 percent of aggregate loan and investment fluctuations.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Mary Amiti","David E. Weinstein"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696272","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-89191695ed1db762","title":"Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading","abstract":"We explore whether minimum wage increases result in substitution from lower-skilled to slightly higher-skilled labor. Using 2011–16 American Community Survey (ACS) data, we show that workers employed in low-wage occupations are older and more likely to have a high school diploma following recent statutory minimum wage increases. To better understand the role of firms, we examine the Burning Glass vacancy data. We find increases in a high school diploma requirement following minimum wage hikes, consistent with our ACS evidence on stocks of employed workers. We see substantial adjustments to requirements both within and across firms.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jeffrey Clemens","Lisa Kahn","Jonathan Meer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711490","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8921510c5ff0cfd6","title":"Kinship, Cooperation, and the Evolution of Moral Systems","abstract":"Across the social sciences, a key question is how societies manage to enforce cooperative behavior in social dilemmas such as public goods provision or bilateral trade. According to an influential body of theories in psychology, anthropology, and evolutionary biology, the answer is that humans have evolved moral systems: packages of functional psychological and biological mechanisms that regulate economic behavior, including a belief in moralizing gods; moral values; negative reciprocity; and emotions of shame, guilt, and disgust. Based on a stylized model, this article empirically studies the structure and evolution of these moral traits as a function of historical heterogeneity in extended kinship relationships. The evidence shows that societies with a historically tightly knit kinship structure regulate behavior through communal moral values, revenge taking, emotions of external shame, and notions of purity and disgust. In loose kinship societies, on the other hand, cooperation appears to be enforced through universal moral values, internalized guilt, altruistic punishment, and an apparent rise and fall of moralizing religions. These patterns point to the presence of internally consistent but culturally variable functional moral systems. Consistent with the model, the relationship between kinship ties, economic development, and the structure of the mediating moral systems amplified over time.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Benjamin Enke"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz001","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-892dffc9461a1f2c","title":"The Competitive Effects of Entry: Evidence from Supercenter Expansion","abstract":"Coupling weekly grocery transactions with the exact location and opening date of Walmarts over an 11-year period, we examine how Supercenter entry affects prices and revenues at incumbent supermarkets. We find that entry within 1 mile of an incumbent causes a sharp 16 percent drop in revenue, a competitive effect that decays quickly with distance. Surprisingly, despite large cross-sectional differences in supermarket prices by exposure to Walmart, our findings also indicate that Supercenter entry has no causal effect on incumbent prices. This result is robust across many dimensions, including a lack of price response for individual products, and across brands within a category.","wordCount":103,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Peter Arcidiacono","Paul B. Ellickson","Carl F. Mela","John Singleton"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180047","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-89302bc86a401377","title":"Neighborhood Sanitation and Infant Mortality","abstract":"In this paper, we shed new light on a long-standing puzzle: in India, Muslim children are substantially more likely than Hindu children to survive to their first birthday, even though Indian Muslims have lower wealth, consumption, educational attainment, and access to state services. Contrary to the prior literature, we show that the observed mortality advantage accrues not to Muslim households themselves but rather to their neighbors, who are also likely to be Muslim. Investigating mechanisms, we provide a collage of evidence suggesting externalities due to poor sanitation are a channel linking the religious composition of neighborhoods to infant mortality.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Michael Geruso","Dean Spears"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150431","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-89347bf504331313","title":"The politics of experimentation: Political competition and randomized controlled trials","abstract":"This paper provides an analysis of how political factors affect the incidence of the evaluation of public policies, with a focus on Randomized Control Trial (RCT) experiments in international development. We argue that political environments where incumbents face greater electoral competition and smaller ruling margins are more likely to host RCT experiments. Using various data sources for the incidence of RCTs both at the cross-country level and at the sub-national level in India, we find that RCTs are more likely to occur in politically competitive jurisdictions. We employ fixed effects regressions using various estimators and an instrumental variable strategy that exploits an electoral reform in India which limited the entry of independent candidates and exogenously affected the degree of electoral competition in state-level politics. The effect seems concentrated on RCTs that have the government as a partner, suggesting that political competition has an important demand-side effect on the incidence of RCTs.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Cristina Corduneanu-Huci","Michael Dorsch","Paul Maarek"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2020.09.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-893c8ff7c51957ea","title":"Exposure to collective gender-based violence causes intimate partner violence","abstract":"Globally, one in three women experience intimate partner violence (IPV) over their lifetimes. Yet, the factors that cause men to commit IPV remain poorly understood. We propose and test a causal long-term link from past exposure to gender-based collective violence to violent behavior against an intimate partner. Combining novel survey data from Angolan war veteran families and a natural experiment, we find that exposure to sexual violence by armed groups against women makes male veterans about 30 percentage points more likely to commit physical – but not sexual – violence against a female intimate partner 18 years later (on average). Our results are not consistent with standard explanations of IPV based on group norms and intra-household bargaining. Instead, we attribute the effect to a lasting reduction in self-control skills. These findings challenge standard approaches to preventing IPV and emphasize the potential of working with men, especially after war-time episodes of collective violence.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Wolfgang Stojetz","Tilman Brück"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103054","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-894993f4b1822ed0","title":"Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent","abstract":"Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Christopher L. Gilbert","Luc Christiaensen","Jonathan Kaminski"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-896055d7ae773bfb","title":"Recent Developments at DG Competition: 2016/2017","abstract":"The Directorate General for Competition at the European Commission enforces competition law in the areas of antitrust, merger control, and state aids. This year's article provides first a general presentation of the role of the Chief Competition Economist's team and surveys the main achievements of the Directorate General for Competition over 2016/2017. The article then reviews the economic work undertaken in one merger case between Dow/DuPont, which raised specific issues related to innovation, as well as in an antitrust case on parity clauses related to Amazon e-books.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Benno Buehler","Daniel Coublucq","Cyril Hariton","Gregor Langus","Tommaso Valletti"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-017-9592-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-896674752b787c8e","title":"Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints","abstract":"Recent empirical evidence strongly points to the state dependence of fiscal multipliers that are larger in recessions than in expansions. Yet standard business cycle models face great difficulty in producing such asymmetric fiscal policy effects. By incorporating endogenously binding collateral constraints into a medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we find that fiscal effectiveness can vary substantially across the business cycle. The key to our framework is the state‐dependent nature of collateral constraints—binding in bad times while slack in good times, amplifying the effectiveness of fiscal policy and hence generating fiscal multipliers that are larger during recessions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Richard McManus","F. Gülçin Özkan","Dawid Trzeciakiewicz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12340","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-897152d341cbb5dc","title":"Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Stimulus and Austerity in Europe","abstract":"We analyze whether there are ne gative (positive) long‐term effects of austerity measures (stimulus measures) on potential output growth. Based on the approach of Blanchard and Leigh ( ) and Fatás and Summers ( ) and using a novel data set of narratively identified fiscal policy shocks, we estimate the impact of these shocks on potential output. We robustly find a considerable underestimation of multiplier effects and their persistence for most European countries in the early years after the financial crisis and subsequent Euro Area crisis. We conclude that fiscal consolidation was badly timed and thus not only deepened the crisis but may have caused evitable hysteresis effects.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sebastian Gechert","Gustav A. Horn","Christoph Paetz"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12287","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8973ca73ff88f19f","title":"Barriers to urban agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"Trends in urbanization and urban food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have stimulated critical debates around the potential benefits of urban agriculture (UA) to urban livelihoods. Some scholars suggest that UA can contribute to the food quantity, food quality and income needs of urban households. However, much of the evidence cited comes from single case studies, with particular attention paid to large cities and high-income countries. There is a resulting gap in understanding regarding what role UA plays in the food security of households in smaller African cities and towns. These smaller urban areas are likely to house a large fraction of SSA’s urban population in future and are important sites for early intervention by policymakers. Our analysis is based on survey data collected from 2,687 low- and low-middle income households in 18 urban areas with populations of less than 200,000 across Zambia and Kenya. We perform statistical analyses to investigate the association between UA and household food security and assess which types of households are engaged in UA. We found that 33% of households in our sample are engaged in UA and there was limited statistical significance in terms of the relationship between UA and household food security. Our results reveal three key barriers to UA, namely settlement formality, property rights, and distance from food retailers. These barriers imply the need for urban planners and policymakers to revisit how decisions are made about issues such as residential development, land tenure, transport infrastructure, and the use of space in cities, as these affect the ability of households to produce, sell, and access food. Policy and planning mechanisms should further recognize the embeddedness of UA within African urban food systems, in which traditional markets, informal trading, and modern food retail also play an integral role.","wordCount":294,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Julia Davies","Corrie Hannah","Zack Guido","Andrew Zimmer","Laura E. McCann","Jane Battersby","Tom Evans"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101999","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8979c63e89c8a4e8","title":"The Stabilizing Effects of Publishing Strategic Central Bank Projections","abstract":"Expectations are among the main driving forces for economic dynamics. Therefore, managing expectations has become a primary objective for monetary policy seeking to stabilize the business cycle. In this paper, we study whether central banks can manage private-sector expectations by means of publishing one-period ahead inflation projections in a New Keynesian learning-to-forecast experiment. Subjects in the experiment observe these projections along with the historic development of the economy and subsequently submit their own one-period ahead inflation forecasts. In this context, we find that the central bank can significantly manage private-sector expectations and that this management strongly supports monetary policy in stabilizing the economy. Moreover, published central bank inflation projections drastically reduce the probability of a deflationary spiral after strong negative shocks to the economy.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Steffen Ahrens","Joep Lustenhouwer","Michele Tettamanzi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100521000687","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8995d7404f3c29d6","title":"Cleaning in the Shadow of the Law? Bargaining, Marital Investment, and the Impact of Divorce Law on Husbands’ Intrahousehold Work","abstract":"Previous literature has established that unilateral divorce laws may reduce women’s household work and overall marital investment. If unilateral divorce has differential costs by gender, it may impact household work by gender through bargaining channels. However, little research has examined how divorce laws affect men’s levels and share of household production. To examine this, I use data on matched couples from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and exploit time variation in state divorce laws. I find that unilateral divorce laws lead to a decrease in marital investment, as measured by mens’ and women’s household work. The evidence also supports a bargaining response to divorce laws, as fathers in states without joint-custody laws engage in a significantly higher share of household work under unilateral divorce than those in states with joint-custody laws, consistent with a higher cost of marital dissolution among fathers who stand to lose custody of their children.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Jennifer Roff"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692806","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8995e967f393c316","title":"On the Interaction of Memory and Procrastination: Implications for Reminders, Deadlines, and Empirical Estimation","abstract":"The interaction between present bias and limited memory can explain why individuals do not act at deadlines and why providing reminders can have large effects. Individuals in my model must choose when and whether to complete a task, but may forget or procrastinate. A calibration exercise shows that assuming perfect memory leads to biased estimates of present bias because the rate of task completion at the deadline is much lower with imperfect memory. Naïve procrastination explains why individuals do not set up reminders despite large gains to doing so. The model offers guidance for empirical studies of reminders, making a distinction between anticipated and unanticipated reminders: anticipated reminders can induce additional procrastination, lowering both welfare and the probability the task is completed. I then use this framework to show how to optimally set deadlines and time the delivery of reminders to present-biased individuals.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Keith M. Marzilli Ericson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw015","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-89979595d83bd58a","title":"Toward a just energy transition: A distributional analysis of low-carbon policies in the USA","abstract":"Distributional impacts of environmental policies have become an increasingly important consideration in policymaking. To evaluate the distributional impacts of carbon pricing with different revenue recycling schemes for the USA, we integrate national economic model for the USA with household microdata that provides consumption patterns and other socio-economic characteristics for thousands of households. Using this combined model, we explore the distributional impacts and the possible trade-offs between equity and efficiency of different revenue recycling schemes. We find that the choice of revenue recycling scheme has a limited effect on efficiency of the policy, but significant distributional impacts. Our analysis indicates that policy makers can mitigate negative distributional impacts with positive synergies on efficiency.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Xaquín García-Muros","Jennifer Morris","Sergey Paltsev"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105769","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-89992f2b5d8a17aa","title":"The Demand for Bad Policy when Voters Underappreciate Equilibrium Effects","abstract":"Most of the political economy literature blames inefficient policies on institutions or politicians’ motives to supply bad policy, but voters may themselves be partially responsible by demanding bad policy. In this article, we posit that voters may systematically err when assessing potential changes in policy by underappreciating how new policies lead to new equilibrium behaviour. This biases voters towards policy changes that create direct benefits—welfare would rise if behaviour were held constant—even if those reforms ultimately reduce welfare because people adjust behaviour. Conversely, voters are biased against policies that impose direct costs even if they induce larger indirect benefits. Using a lab experiment, we find that a majority of subjects vote against policies that, while inflicting direct costs, would help them to overcome social dilemmas and thereby increase welfare. Subjects also support policies that, while producing direct benefits, create social dilemmas and ultimately hurt welfare. Both mistakes arise because subjects fail to fully anticipate the equilibrium effects of new policies. More precisely, we establish that subjects systematically underappreciate the extent to which policy changes will affect the behaviour of other people, and that these mistaken beliefs exert a causal effect on the demand for bad policy.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Ernesto Dal Bó","Pedro Dal Bó","Erik Eyster"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-89af03601774a1cf","title":"Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns","abstract":"We propose that innovative originality is a valuable organizational resource and that owing to limited investor attention and skepticism of complexity, greater innovative originality may be undervalued. We find that firms' innovative originality strongly predicts higher, more persistent, and less volatile profitability and higher abnormal stock returns, findings that are robust to extensive controls. The return predictive power of innovative originality is stronger for firms with higher valuation uncertainty, lower investor attention, and greater sensitivity of future profitability to innovative originality. This evidence suggests that innovative originality acts as a \"competitive moat\" and is undervalued by the market.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["David Hirshleifer","Po‐Hsuan Hsu","Dongmei Li"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx101","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-89ba519c6d366cf5","title":"Target PCA: Transfer learning large dimensional panel data","abstract":"This paper develops a novel method to estimate a latent factor model for a large target panel with missing observations by optimally using the information from auxiliary panel data sets. We refer to our estimator as target-PCA. Transfer learning from auxiliary panel data allows us to deal with a large fraction of missing observations and weak signals in the target panel. We show that our estimator is more efficient and can consistently estimate weak factors, which are not identifiable with conventional methods. We provide the asymptotic inferential theory for target-PCA under very general assumptions on the approximate factor model and missing patterns. In an empirical study of imputing data in a mixed-frequency macroeconomic panel, we demonstrate that target-PCA significantly outperforms all benchmark methods.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Junting Duan","Markus Pelger","Ruoxuan Xiong"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105521","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-89ebb651e08ff1cb","title":"On the cultural basis of gender differences in negotiation","abstract":"We study how culture and social structure influence bargaining behavior across gender, by exploring the negotiation culture in matrilineal and patriarchal societies using data from a laboratory experiment and a natural field experiment. One interesting result is that in both the actual marketplace and in the laboratory bargaining game, women in the matrilineal society earn more than men, at odds with years of evidence observed in the western world. We find that this result is critically driven by which side of the market the person is occupying: female (male) sellers in the matrilineal (patriarchal) society extract more of the bargaining surplus than male (female) sellers. In the buyer role, however, we observe no significant differences across societies.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Steffen Andersen","Seda Ertaç","Uri Gneezy","John A. List","Sandra Maximiano"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9547-y","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8a19d0cffb9b96b2","title":"Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: A joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects","abstract":"We consider a general class of observation-driven models with exogenous regressors for double bounded data that are based on the beta distribution. We obtain a stationary and ergodic beta observation-driven process subject to a contraction condition on the stochastic dynamic model equation. We derive conditions for strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. The general results are used to study the properties of a beta autoregressive process with threshold effects and to establish the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. We employ beta autoregressive models to describe leverage effects in realized correlations for several pairs of stocks. We find that the impact of past values of realized correlation on future values is significantly higher when stock or market returns are negative rather than positive. The results also indicate that the size of the leverage depends on the magnitude of the market news as measured by daily market returns. These findings support the conjecture that correlation between stock returns tends to be higher when stock prices are falling, and lower when there is a surge in stock prices. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample study that shows that the models with leverage effects can enhance the accuracy of point and density forecasts of realized correlations.","wordCount":207,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["P. Gorgi","Siem Jan Koopman"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.06.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a1ba9142b02e1e6","title":"The effect of age-targeted tax credits on labor force participation of older workers","abstract":"I analyze the effect of income tax policy changes on labor force participation of older workers. I exploit two age-targeted policy initiatives to promote work at older ages simultaneously implemented in Sweden in 2007: an earned income tax credit and a payroll tax credit for workers above age 65. Using an age-based discontinuity in eligibility criteria, I conduct a difference-in-differences analysis with the reform as an instrument for the net-of-tax rate. I find a participation elasticity with respect to the net-of-participation-tax rate of about 0.22 in the year following the 65th birthday for individuals who were working four years earlier.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Lisa Laun"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.06.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8a1e4bd6e20394c2","title":"Financial scarcity increases discounting of gains and losses: Experimental evidence from a household task","abstract":"People experience financial scarcity when they have insufficient financial resources to meet demands, and this experience can affect decision-making in various ways. One proposed consequence of financial scarcity is increased temporal discounting, which is a tendency to value immediate outcomes more strongly than delayed outcomes. To test whether financial scarcity indeed increases temporal discounting, we developed the Household Task—an experimental paradigm during which participants have to manage the finances of a household. In a pilot, we found that manipulating participants’ financial situation in the Household Task (debts vs. savings and control) induced an experience of financial scarcity. Next, Experiments 1 and 2 confirmed that this experience increased temporal discounting of gains and losses. In Experiments 3 and 4, we tested whether experienced scarcity also increases discounting when financial resources were equal between conditions. However, in these experiments, there was no evidence of such an effect. In Experiment 5, we found that discounting increased when available financial resources were constant while expectations about future financial problems might have differed between conditions. In sum, the current research suggests that when experiencing scarcity, discounting increases as a response to a current or anticipated future shortcoming of available financial resources. Yet, there was no evidence suggesting that discounting increases when a scarcity mindset is induced in isolation.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Leon P. Hilbert","Marret K. Noordewier","W. van Dijk"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102546","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a2d0b7d9f162fee","title":"Poverty or prosperity in northern India? New evidence on real wages, 1590s–1870s","abstract":"This article introduces a new dataset on wages in northern India (from Gujarat in the west to Bengal in the east) from the 1590s to the 1870s. It follows Allen's subsistence basket methodology to compute internationally comparable real wages to shed light on developments in Indian living standards over time. It adjusts the comparative cost‐of‐living indices to take into account differences in climate and caloric intake due to variances in heights. The article also discusses the male/female wage gap in northern India. It demonstrates that the ‘great divergence’ started in the late seventeenth century, and widened further after the 1720s and especially after the 1800s. It was subsequently primarily England's spurt and India's stagnation in the first half of the nineteenth century that brought about most serious differences in the standard of living. If the British colonial state is to blame—as often suggested by the literature on India's persistent poverty—the fault lies in its failure to improve the situation after the British became near‐undisputed masters of India in 1820.","wordCount":169,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Pim de Zwart","Jan Lucassen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12996","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a411e6ea41341a2","title":"Robust Contracts in Continuous Time","abstract":"We study a continuous‐time contracting problem under hidden action, where the principal has ambiguous beliefs about the project cash flows. The principal designs a robust contract that maximizes his utility under the worst‐case scenario subject to the agent's incentive and participation constraints. Robustness generates endogenous belief heterogeneity and induces a tradeoff between incentives and ambiguity sharing so that the incentive constraint does not always bind. We implement the optimal contract by cash reserves, debt, and equity. In addition to receiving ordinary dividends when cash reserves reach a threshold, outside equity holders also receive special dividends or inject cash in the cash reserves to hedge against model uncertainty and smooth dividends. The equity premium and the credit yield spread generated by ambiguity aversion are state dependent and high for distressed firms with low cash reserves.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Jianjun Miao","Alejandro Rivera"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13127","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8a4ed95417be3656","title":"COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions","abstract":"In the early phase of the COVID-19 crisis, China imposed widespread lockdowns to contain the virus. We study the spillovers from the lockdowns to the US economy. We find that sectors with a high exposure to intermediate goods imports from China experienced significantly larger declines in production, employment, imports, and exports. In addition, relative input and output prices increased in these sectors. At the peak of the recession in April 2020, output was 16% lower in sectors with a one standard deviation higher China exposure. The estimated effects on output, input, and inflation are short-lived and dissipate by summer 2020.","wordCount":100,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Matthias Meier","Eugénio Pinto"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104674","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a4effe9e0d50abc","title":"Bivariate scoring rules: Unifying the characterizations of positional scoring rules and Kemeny's rule","abstract":"This paper studies social preference functions (SPFs), which map the voters' ordinal preferences over a set of alternatives to a non-empty set of strict rankings over the alternatives. Maybe the most prominent SPFs are positional scoring rules and Kemeny's rule. While these two types of rules behave intuitively quite differently, they are axiomatically surprisingly similar and we thus provide a joint axiomatic characterization of these SPFs. To this end, we introduce the class of bivariate scoring rules which generalize Kemeny's rule by weighting comparisons between alternatives depending on their positions in the voters' preference relations. In particular, this class contains both Kemeny's rule and all positional scoring rules. As our main result, we then characterize the set of bivariate scoring rules as the only SPFs that satisfy—aside from some standard axioms—mild consistency conditions for variable electorates and variable agendas. As corollaries of this result, we also derive variants of the well-known characterizations of positional scoring rules by Smith (1973) and of Kemeny's rule by Young (1988). Thus, our result unifies the independent streams of research on positional scoring rules and Kemeny's rule by giving a joint axiomatic basis of these SPFs.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Patrick Lederer"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105836","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-8a53bbf1594699ec","title":"Modeling and forecasting dynamic conditional correlations with opening, high, low, and closing prices","abstract":"Models for variances and covariances of asset returns are crucial in risk management and asset allocation. Traditionally, these models were based on daily returns. Daily opening, high, low and closing (OHLC) prices have been sometimes used in multivariate volatility models for variances, but not for correlations. We therefore suggest a new version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model wherein information from daily OHLC prices is utilized in both variance and correlation equations. The model is evaluated for two datasets: five exchange traded funds and five currencies. The results show that in terms of conditional covariance matrix estimates and forecasts the proposed model significantly outperforms, not only the standard DCC model, but also models that incorporate OHLC prices only in the variance equation.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Piotr Fiszeder","Marcin Fałdziński","Péter Molnár"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.12.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a53d21873f22a99","title":"Immigration Enforcement and Children's Living Arrangements","abstract":"Tougher immigration enforcement was responsible for 1.8 million deportations between 2009 and 2013 alone--many of them were fathers of American children. We exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the escalation of interior immigration enforcement to assess its impact on the structure of families to which many of the deported fathers of U.S.-born children belonged. We find that the average increase in immigration enforcement during the 2005 to 2015 period has raised by 19 percent the likelihood that Hispanic U.S.-born children might live without their parents in households headed by naturalized relatives or friends unthreatened by deportation. Likewise, the same increase in immigration enforcement has raised by 20 percent these children's propensity to live with likely undocumented mothers who report their spouses as being absent--a reasonable finding given that most children with a likely undocumented father have undocumented mothers. Given the negative consequences of being raised by a single parent or without parents, plus the parallel increase in interior immigration enforcement, gaining a better understanding of the collateral damage of heightened enforcement on the families to which these children belong is well warranted.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes","Esther Arenas-Arroyo"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22106","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8a565fa26ce06005","title":"Performance‐maximizing large contests","abstract":"Many sales, sports, and research contests are put in place to maximize contestants' performance. We investigate and provide a complete characterization of the prize structures that achieve this objective in settings with many contestants. The contestants may be ex ante asymmetric in their abilities and prize valuations, and there may be complete or incomplete information about these parameters. The prize valuations and performance costs may be linear, concave, or convex. A main novel takeaway is that awarding numerous different prizes whose values gradually decline with contestants' ranking is optimal in the typical case of contestants with convex performance costs and concave prize valuations. This suggests that many real‐world contests can be improved by increasing the number of prizes and making them more heterogeneous. The techniques we develop can also be used to formulate and solve other contest design questions that have so far proven intractable.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Wojciech Olszewski","Ron Siegel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3588","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-8a5aca36d15501db","title":"Telework: Urban form, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas implications","abstract":"A primary motivation of telework policy is to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Using a numerical simulation of the standard urban model, we show telework causes sprawl, calling into question the idea that telework decreases energy consumption. Overall effects depend on wage changes due to telework, land‐use regulation such as height limits or greenbelts, and the telework participation rate. While energy consumption increases in some scenarios, emissions may fall due to changes in the energy mix between gasoline and other sources.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["William D. Larson","Weihua Zhao"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12399","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8a5bc3b946bacf57","title":"Volumetric choice experiments and welfare measures in a subsidy-driven context","abstract":"Volumetric Choice Experiments (VCE) offer a novel approach to studying individual behavior, traditionally explored through Discrete Choice Experiments. This study assesses the efficacy of VCE in understanding farmers' preferences regarding new results-based and practice-based agri-environmental contracts, using a comprehensive international stated preference survey. Recognizing that farmers often act as households maximizing utility rather than purely profit-driven producers, we provide justification for applying a utility-based framework in this context. The subsidy-driven nature of agri-environmental contracts poses a challenge for the use of multiple discrete-continuous choice models suited for VCE data. Conventionally, these models utilize an income-based budget equation, which would not be binding given the willingness-to-accept format of the experiment. To operationalize our model, we adopt a land-based budget equation, facilitating the development of a novel compensating variation measure for welfare analysis. Our findings reveal insightful contrasts between VCE-derived data and traditional DCE results, highlighting the complexities encountered and the comparability of outcomes. By delving into the distinct attributes of VCE and justifying the utility-based approach for farmers, this research not only bridges a critical gap in the literature but also enhances our understanding of farmer behavior, with significant implications for the design and implementation of future agri-environmental policies.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Wiktor Budziński","Mikołaj Czajkowski","Solen Le Clec’h","Olimpia Markiewicz","Bettina Matzdorf","Matěj Opatrný","Jens Rommel","Julian Sagebiel","Christoph Schulze","Milan Ščasný","Lenny van Bussel","Katarzyna Zagórska","W. Zawadzki"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101572","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a636d43d38fa9ef","title":"Leaving your tailings behind: Environmental bonds, bankruptcy and waste cleanup","abstract":"This paper studies the impacts of an environmental bond, which fully covers waste cleanup costs, on a mining firm's optimal actions over the full life cycle of a mine, when bankruptcy may shift cleanup costs to the government. A firm's stochastic optimal control problem is described by an HJB equation with the resource price modelled as an Ito process. A theoretical result shows that under certain assumptions, an environmental bond can ensure that the option to declare bankruptcy has no impact on the firm's optimal actions. A numerical solution is implemented for a hypothetical copper mine using two different models of bankruptcy risk. Numerical results show that when bankruptcy is an option and no bond is required, the firm produces too much waste relative to a benchmark case, resulting in an efficiency loss and a cleanup liability imposed on government. In the presence of bankruptcy risk, a bond ensures that the firm acts optimally and no efficiency loss is imposed on society.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Sara Aghakazemjourabbaf","Margaret Insley"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101246","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8a654d9619bcd5ec","title":"Multiple testing of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis across currencies","abstract":"We develop exact distribution-free test procedures for joint inference about the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) across multiple currencies. The procedures can be applied with either levels or differences specifications. This unified approach proceeds with sign and signed rank tests for each currency and then uses Monte Carlo resampling to control the overall Type I error rate of either: (i) global FRUH tests obtained via combinations of the p-values; or (ii) individual FRUH tests using multiplicity adjusted p-values. Our framework allows for missing data and for the presence of time-varying conditional covariances between currencies. The usefulness of the new procedures is illustrated with a simulation study and with assessments of the FRUH across 13 currencies in an unbalanced panel. Multiplicity adjusted p-values reveal that the joint FRUH rejections are primarily driven by just a few of the more minor currencies.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Hsuan Fu","Richard Luger"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.07.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8a6d256b9bf56740","title":"Estimating the variance of a combined forecast: Bootstrap-based approach","abstract":"This paper considers bootstrap inference in model averaging for predictive regressions. We first show that the standard pairwise bootstrap is not valid in the context of model averaging. This common bootstrap approach induces a bias-related term in the bootstrap variance of averaging estimators. We then propose and justify a fixed-design residual-based bootstrap resampling approach for model averaging. In a local asymptotic framework, we show the validity of the bootstrap in estimating the variance of a combined forecast and the asymptotic covariance matrix of a combined parameter vector with fixed weights. Our proposed method preserves non-parametrically the cross-sectional dependence between different models and the time series dependence in the errors simultaneously. The finite sample performance of these methods is assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate our approach using an empirical study of the Taylor rule equation with 24 alternative specifications.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Ulrich Hounyo","Kajal Lahiri"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.011","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-8a6f9a10645143df","title":"Assessing the effect of green finance on energy inequality in China via household-level analysis","abstract":"While previous research has investigated the determinants of urban–rural energy inequality (EI), the significance of green finance has rarely been examined. Using a comprehensive green finance development index and a Chinese provincial panel dataset, this research quantitatively investigates how green finance development impacts EI. Our empirical results reveal a significant U-shaped connection between green finance and urban–rural energy disparity, suggesting that moderate expansion of green finance can efficiently mitigate EI. In addition, this relationship is strongly pronounced in China's western region and is more prominently strengthened in provinces with higher energy activities and digital finance development levels but lower economic and social activity levels. These findings could be attributed to the nonlinear impacts of green finance on energy and industrial structure. Based on the findings, we propose several relevant policy recommendations to support China's plans for advancing the green economy and eradicating EI.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Chi‐Chuan Lee","Chi-Chuan Lee","Hepeng Song","Chien-Chiang Lee"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107179","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8a7aecb200d5f9d8","title":"The effects of board gender quotas: A meta-analysis","abstract":"We use a meta-analysis to summarize the recent literature evaluating effects of the introduction of gender quotas on company boards. We collect data from 51 studies on policies implemented in 11 countries from which we extract 496 estimates. The literature considers the effects of quota policies on a wide range of outcome variables which we group in four categories. The findings of the meta-analysis contribute to the discussion of boardroom quota policies by mitigating some concerns of negative impacts and pointing out areas where more policy action is needed.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Costanza De Acutis","Andrea Weber","Elisabeth Wurm"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102634","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a81f9e50d3b4017","title":"The Impacts of Free Universal Elderly Care on the Supply of Informal Care and Labour Supply","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of introducing universal free formal personal care on informal caregiving behaviour in Scotland – in particular, we explore the extent to which free formal care might crowd out the supply of informal care. We estimate, in a difference‐in‐differences framework, that such a reform would: reduce the probability of co‐residential informal caregiving (usually, provided by spouses) by around 18% and, conditional on co‐residential caring, reduce such informal care by 1.3 hours per week. These estimates suggest that an additional hour of formal care displaces approximately 1 hour of such informal care. However, we find no displacement effect on extra‐residential informal caring (often supplied by adult daughters). We also find evidence of increases in labour market participation and hours worked.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Bruce Hollingsworth","Asako Ohinata","Matteo Picchio","Ian Walker"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12473","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8a8c965b0d7b288b","title":"Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations","abstract":"We propose a theory of self-fulfilling unemployment fluctuations. When a firm increases its workforce, it raises demand and weakens competition facing other firms, as employed workers spend more and have less time to search for low prices than unemployed workers. These effects induce other firms to hire more labor in order to scale up their presence in the product market. The feedback between employment and product market conditions generates multiple equilibria—and the possibility of self-fulfilling fluctuations—if differences in shopping behavior between employed and unemployed are large enough. Evidence on spending, shopping, and prices suggests that this is the case.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Greg Kaplan","Guido Menzio"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/685909","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8a8dce930566d0fa","title":"Taxation and market power in the legal marijuana industry","abstract":"We study tax and regulatory policy in the legal marijuana market using unique administrative data from Washington state. Washington's retail entry restrictions have resulted in firms with substantial market power who behave like local monopolists. We show how the presence of market power causes tax and regulatory policy recommendations to differ from standard models that assume perfect competition. Combining structural demand models with measured pass‐through, we show that marijuana is not overtaxed at 37% but is still on the upward sloping region of the Laffer curve and that these taxes have high social costs and are mainly borne by consumers.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Brett Hollenbeck","Kosuke Uetake"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12384","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8a8ecea5ef735225","title":"Government spending, entry, and the consumption crowding‐in puzzle","abstract":"This article documents empirically that net firm entry robustly rises after a U.S. government spending expansion. We use this new finding to test the empirical validity of various model features that have been proposed to generate consumption crowding‐in after positive expenditure shocks. Endogenous‐entry models typically fail to generate the observed joint increase in consumption and entry. Model features that dampen the wealth effect, such as rule‐of‐thumb households or complementarity between labor and consumption in preferences, tend to reduce entry. We show that utility‐ or productivity‐enhancing public spending can reconcile the model with our documented fact and performs well empirically.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Vivien Lewis","Roland Winkler"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12241","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-8a913f79dd1cd197","title":"Merger of complements: Empirical evidence from the eyewear industry","abstract":"We analyze the effects of a merger between sellers of perfect complements in an oligopolistic industry. Relying on a unique dataset listing every pair of glasses sold by almost 400 independent opticians in Germany, we study the effects of the 2018 merger between the global leading producer of ophthalmic lenses and the global leading producer of eyewear frames. We show that the retail prices of components produced by the merging parties decreased with the merger, relatively to the prices of components produced by competing firms. This is, according to the theory, due to a reduction in double-marginalization resulting from the internalization of externalities after the merger. We also find that the relative price decrease is asymmetric across component markets, in line with our theory.","wordCount":124,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Germain Gaudin","Niklas Nagel"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103114","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8a99fd9f9e3f07ba","title":"What age do you feel? – Subjective age identity and economic behaviors","abstract":"Building on recent findings in psychology, we study the impact of subjective age identity (feeling younger or older than one's chronological age) on economic behaviors. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study we find: Individuals with a younger age identity have higher work engagement, and their savings profile, as a function of the subjective age gap, is hump-shaped. The effects are economically significant, for example, increasing the subjective age gap by one standard deviation increases an individual's likelihood to be employed in a subsequent HRS wave by 1.1% (about 21% of the conditional mean). The relationships found are consistent with an interplay of two subjective age channels: Ability (self-perceived abilities to perform certain economic behaviors) and Preference (choosing (avoiding) “young” (“old”) behaviors). Our results have implications for policy and financial advice that traditionally target individuals based on chronological age. That is, for example, allowing more flexibility with respect to retirement decisions as well as aligning financial products and services with subjective age identities.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Zihan Ye","Thomas Post"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.08.004","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-8a9b2e59faca0208","title":"Fair retirement under risky lifetime","abstract":"A premature death unexpectedly brings a life and a career to their end, leading to substantial welfare losses. We study the retirement decision in an economy with risky lifetime and compare the laissez‐faire with egalitarian social optima. We consider two social objectives: (1) the maximin on expected lifetime welfare, allowing for a compensation for unequal life expectancies, and (2) the maximin on realized lifetime welfare, allowing for a compensation for unequal lifetimes. The latter optimum involves, in general, decreasing lifetime consumption profiles as well as raising the retirement age. This result is robust to the introduction of unequal life expectancies and unequal productivities.","wordCount":103,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Marc Fleurbaey","Marie‐Louise Leroux","Pierre Pestieau","Grégory Ponthière"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12152","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8aa0f7f4236155a8","title":"Do corporate taxes harm economic performance? Explaining distortions in r&d- and export-intensive uk firms","abstract":"This paper analyzes the effects of corporate tax liability on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) as the key driver of economic performance. This is a new dimension in the UK productivity puzzle that has not attracted attention so far. We use 6559 manufacturing firms over 2004–2011 to investigate whether higher levels of corporate tax affect the productivity catch-up process by reducing after-tax earnings that could alternatively be used for productivity-enhancing investment, particularly focusing on R&D- and export-intensive firms. Our key results are summarized as follows: first, higher levels of corporate taxation impact adversely on TFP and this finding is robust to different tax measures and insensitive to endogeneity bias; second, as R&D- and export-intensive firms tend to have relatively higher TFP growth, higher levels of tax liability as a share of earnings before interest and taxes decelerate TFP growth of these firms.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Ioannis Bournakis","Sushanta Mallick"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051800055x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8aa6afacb038ea76","title":"Monetary policy at the periphery during the Classical Gold Standard: Italy (1894–1913)","abstract":"This paper analyzes monetary policy in Italy between 1894 and WWI by focusing on the main bank of issue at the time (the Banca d’Italia , BdI) and the Treasury. We show that the Treasury set multiple official rates, and the BdI determined an ”effective” rate transmitted to the market by discounting different bills to the various rates; we provide an original measure of this rate based on primary sources. The BdI changed its rate in response to the domestic market rate (although with a milder reaction than the Treasury), the stock of money in circulation, and its reserve coverage ratio. Changes in the official discount rates in France and Germany also triggered relatively modest reactions. Neither the exchange rate nor the state of the domestic economy affected the setting of the rate. Until the turn of the century, the BdI only targeted corporate goals of profitability and financial soundness, while it also pursued policy aims afterward. In this context, the bank set the discount rate to accumulate reserves for market interventions.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Paolo Di Martino","Fabio C. Bagliano"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101680","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ab6ede139bb81e4","title":"Demand Analysis Using Strategic Reports: An Application to a School Choice Mechanism","abstract":"Several school districts use assignment systems that give students an incentive to misrepresent their preferences. We find evidence consistent with strategic behavior in Cambridge. Such strategizing can complicate preference analysis. This paper develops empirical methods for studying random utility models in a new and large class of school choice mechanisms. We show that preferences are nonparametrically identified under either sufficient variation in choice environments or a preference shifter. We then develop a tractable estimation procedure and apply it to Cambridge. Estimates suggest that while 83% of students are assigned to their stated first choice, only 72% are assigned to their true first choice because students avoid ranking competitive schools. Assuming that students behave optimally, the Immediate Acceptance mechanism is preferred by the average student to the Deferred Acceptance mechanism by an equivalent of 0.08 miles. The estimated difference is smaller if beliefs are biased, and reversed if students report preferences truthfully.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Nikhil Agarwal","Paulo Somaini"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13615","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8abb1e5d68df3f18","title":"Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China","abstract":"This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in China. Using all listed Chinese companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges as well as 4188 ​M&A deals from the period of 2001–2018, we show that Chinese firms are more likely to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, which contradicts the behavior of US firms. We further show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less likely than non-SOEs to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. SOEs are less likely to use only cash for their acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. These results indicate the prudence of SOEs regarding acquisitions relative to non-SOEs during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty are associated with an increase in shareholder wealth for acquirers, and this wealth effect is more pronounced for SOEs.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Yezhou Sha","Chenlei Kang","Zilong Wang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.03.029","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8ad026736c39f3f5","title":"Privatization and quality: Evidence from elderly care in Sweden","abstract":"Non-contractible quality dimensions are at risk of degradation when the provision of public services is privatized. However, privatization may increase quality by fostering performance-improving innovation, particularly if combined with increased competition. We assemble a large data set on elderly care services in Sweden between 1990 and 2009 and estimate how opening to private provision affected mortality rates - an important and not easily contractible quality dimension - using a difference-in-difference-in-difference approach. The results indicate that privatization and the associated increase in competition significantly improved non-contractible quality as measured by mortality rates.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Mats Bergman","Per Johansson","Sofia Lundberg","Giancarlo Spagnolo"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.06.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8afc10533c0c1bf3","title":"Lessons from history for successful disinflation","abstract":"Why are some attempts at disinflation successful and others failures? We investigate this question in the context of the Federal Reserve's attempts at disinflation since World War II. Our central finding is that a fundamental determinant of success was the strength of the Federal Reserve's commitment to disinflation at the start of its attempts. In episodes where its commitment was high, there were significant declines in inflation that were often long-lasting, while in ones where its commitment was low, falls in inflation were small and short-lived. We find that although the extent of the Federal Reserve's commitment was often clear to the public, there is no evidence that stronger commitment to disinflation directly affected expected inflation. Rather, the main channel through which weak commitment led to unsuccessful disinflation was premature abandonment of the disinflationary policy. We conclude by discussing the implications for the Federal Reserve's current effort at disinflation.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Christina Romer","David Romer"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103654","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8b148b8ec1336e18","title":"Increasing longevity and life satisfaction: is there a catch to living longer?","abstract":"Human longevity is rising rapidly all over the world, but are longer lives more satisfied lives? This study suggests that the answer might be no. Despite a substantial increase in months of satisfying life, people’s overall life satisfaction declined between 1985 and 2011 in West Germany due to substantial losses of life satisfaction in old age. When compared to 1985, in 2011, elderly West Germans were, on average, much less satisfied throughout their last five years of life. Moreover, they spent a larger proportion of their remaining lifetime in states of dissatisfaction, on average. Two important mechanisms that contributed to this satisfaction decline were health and social isolation. Using a broad variety of sensitivity tests, I show that these results are robust to a large set of alternative explanations.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Janina Nemitz"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00836-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8b1d223a69c3a871","title":"What is in a label? On neighborhood labeling, stigma and housing prices","abstract":"Place-based policies that allocate resources to specific areas inadvertently also designate these areas as needing assistance, potentially leading to the development of neighborhood stigma. The common coupling of resource allocation and area designation makes it difficult to measure the stigma effect. However, the Swedish police’s listing of “vulnerable” neighborhoods, initially introduced in 2015, lacked accompanying resources, offering a unique opportunity to examine the isolated impact of place-based policies on stigma. We study the stigma associated with unfavorable area labels through an analysis of how police listings affect housing prices — a reliable measure of location value. Employing the synthetic control method, we find that the list resulted in an average price decrease of 3.6% within one year and 6.5% within six years in the designated neighborhoods. In line with ideas of racial stigma, we also find that areas with a higher proportion of minority residents prior to classification experienced more pronounced negative effects.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Henrik Andersson","Ina Blind","Fabian Brunåker","Matz Dahlberg","Greta Fredriksson","Jakob Granath","Che-Yuan Liang"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2026.104191","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8b1de41916b542a9","title":"What Caused Chicago Bank Failures in the Great Depression? A Look at the 1920s","abstract":"This article reassesses the causes of Chicago state bank failures during the Great Depression by tracking the evolution of their balance sheets in the 1920s. I find that all banks suffered tremendous deposit withdrawals; however banks that failed earlier in the 1930s had invested more in mortgages in the 1920s. The main problem with mortgages was their lack of liquidity, not their quality. Banks heavily engaged in mortgages did not have enough liquid assets to face the withdrawals, and failed. This article thus reasserts the importance of pre-crisis liquidity risk management in preventing bank failures.","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Natacha Postel‐Vinay"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002205071600053x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8b28f60ef75ab0b9","title":"Natural Amenities, Neighbourhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income","abstract":"We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighbourhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighbourhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880–2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighbourhoods to high incomes over time. Secondly, naturally heterogeneous cities exhibit persistent spatial distributions of income. Thirdly, downtown neighbourhoods in coastal cities were less susceptible to the widespread decentralization of income in the mid-twentieth century and experienced an increase in income more quickly after 1980.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Sanghoon Lee","Jeffrey Lin"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8b30978defdc0937","title":"Buy, Keep, or Sell: Economic Growth and the Market for Ideas","abstract":"An endogenous growth model is developed where each period firms invest in researching and developing new ideas. An idea increases a firm's productivity. By how much depends on the technological propinquity between an idea and the firm's line of business. Ideas can be bought and sold on a market for patents. A firm can sell an idea that is not relevant to its business or buy one if it fails to innovate. The developed model is matched up with stylized facts about the market for patents in the United States. The analysis gauges how efficiency in the patent market affects growth.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Ufuk Akcigit","Murat Alp Celik","Jeremy Greenwood"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12144","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8b35bfed25c86913","title":"Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline and Labour Market Outcomes","abstract":"We study how manufacturing decline and local housing booms contributed to changes in labour market outcomes during the 2000s, focusing on the distributional consequences across geographical areas and demographic groups. Using a local labour markets design, we estimate that manufacturing decline significantly reduced employment between 2000 and 2006, while local housing booms increased employment. These results suggest that housing booms ‘masked’ employment declines that would have occurred earlier in the absence of the booms. This ‘masking’ occurred both within and between cities and demographic groups. We find that roughly 40% of the reduction in employment during the 2000s can be attributed to manufacturing decline and that these negative effects would have appeared earlier had it not been for the large, temporary increases in housing demand.","wordCount":125,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Kerwin Kofi Charles","Erik Hurst","Matthew Notowidigdo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12598","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8b4fe3dd741ee3c7","title":"Location, Search Costs and Youth Unemployment: Experimental Evidence from Transport Subsidies","abstract":"Do high search costs affect the labour market outcomes of jobseekers living far away from jobs? I randomly assign transport subsidies to unemployed youth in urban Ethiopia. Treated respondents increase job search intensity and are more likely to find good, permanent, jobs. Subsidies also induce a short-term reduction in temporary work. I use a high-frequency phone call survey to track the trajectory of search behaviour over time to show that the subsidies significantly increased job search intensity and the use of formal search methods. The evidence suggests that cash constraints cause young people to give up looking for good jobs too early.","wordCount":102,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Simon Franklin"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12509","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8b5398791ccb61ff","title":"The impact of cyclones on local economic growth: Evidence from local projections","abstract":"We shed new light on the short-term dynamic effects of cyclones on local economic growth in India. We proxy local GDP growth with night-time light intensity data and construct a cyclone index that varies across months and districts depending on wind speed exposures. Using local projections on highly granular data for the period 1993M1-2011M12, we find that yearly estimations hide large short-term differential impacts and that the negative impact of cyclones is the largest between 4 and 8 months after the event.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Costanza Naguib","Martino Pelli","D. R. Poirier","Jeanne Tschopp"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110871","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8b5cfc91ee30edc5","title":"Sources of Geographic Variation in Health Care: Evidence From PatientMigration","abstract":"We study the drivers of geographic variation in US health care utilization, using an empirical strategy that exploits migration of Medicare patients to separate the role of demand and supply factors. Our approach allows us to account for demand differences driven by both observable and unobservable patient characteristics. Within our sample of over-65 Medicare beneficiaries, we find that 40-50 percent of geographic variation in utilization is attributable to demand-side factors, including health and preferences, with the remainder due to place-specific supply factors. JEL: H51, I1, I11.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Amy Finkelstein","Matthew Gentzkow","Heidi Williams"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw023","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-8b6eec644bfc367e","title":"Reference-dependent discounting","abstract":"Reference-dependence has become a widely established phenomenon in decision making under risk, not only for monetary outcomes but also for other outcomes, e.g., related to health. However, when the prospects involve risk about timing (the time of receipt of outcomes), rather than the outcomes themselves, much less is known about reference-dependence. This study extends discounted utility to incorporate reference-dependence and is the first to test it in timing prospects. We are also the first to estimate the probability weighting function for timing prospects. For both timing and outcome risk tasks, we replicate the typical fourfold pattern of risk attitudes: risk seeking for low-probability gains, risk aversion for high-probability gains, risk aversion for low-probability losses and risk seeking for high-probability losses. In other words, we find substantial pessimism with regard to high probabilities in the gain domain and low probabilities in the loss domain, and probabilistic optimism for low probabilities in the gain domain and high probabilities in the loss domain. Furthermore, we report loss aversion for outcome risks, while for timing risks, we find the opposite result, which we term earliness seeking . In sum, we find substantial empirical support for reference-dependent discounting. Our results show that psychological biases are also important when timing is risky, although the direction of bias may differ.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Arthur E. Attema","Zhihua Li"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09432-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8b7a593cf34d164d","title":"Social identity and labor market outcomes of internal migrant workers","abstract":"Previous research on internal mobility has neglected the role of local identity contrary to studies analyzing international migration. Examining social identity and labor market outcomes in China, the country with the largest internal mobility in the world, closes the gap. Instrumental variable estimation and careful robustness checks suggest that identifying as local associates with higher migrants’ hourly wages and lower hours worked, although monthly earnings seem to remain largely unchanged. Migrants with strong local identity are more likely to use local networks in job search, and to obtain jobs with higher average wages and lower average hours worked, suggesting the value of integration policies.","wordCount":104,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Shu Cai","Klaus F. Zimmermann"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104676","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8b7a5d8b8adb65db","title":"Long-term trends in income and wealth inequality in southern Italy. The Kingdom of Naples (Apulia), sixteenth to eighteenth centuries","abstract":"This paper uses new archival sources to study the long-term tendencies in economic inequality in preindustrial southern Italy (Kingdom of Naples). The paper reconstructs long-term trends in wealth inequality for the period 1550–1800 for a sample of communities in the region Apulia and produces estimates of overall inequality levels across the region. These estimates are compared with those which have recently been published for other Italian and European regions or states. The article also reconstructs the total income distribution for the mid-eighteenth century, then comparing wealth and income inequality. Overall, the evidence for the Kingdom of Naples suggests a tendency for economic inequality to grow continuously over the early modern period. As this was mostly a period of economic stagnation or decline for the Kingdom, the article provides further insights to the debate on the long-run relationship between economic growth and inequality change.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Guido Alfani","Sergio Sardone"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101646","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8b9321207f50c875","title":"Arrival of Young Talent: The Send-Down Movement and Rural Education in China","abstract":"This paper estimates the effects on rural education of the send-down movement during the Cultural Revolution, when about 16 million urban youth were mandated to resettle in the countryside. Using a county-level dataset compiled from local gazetteers and population censuses, we show that greater exposure to the sent-down youths significantly increased rural children’s educational achievement. This positive effect diminished after the urban youth left the countryside in the late 1970s but never disappeared. Rural children who interacted with the sent-down youths were also more likely to pursue more-skilled occupations, marry later, and have smaller families than those who did not.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Yi Chen","Ziying Fan","Xiaomin Gu","Li‐An Zhou"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191414","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8bb0f1d3cb59eb41","title":"The Impacts of Paid Family Leave Benefits: Regression Kink Evidence from California Administrative Data","abstract":"We use 10 years of California administrative data with a regression kink design to estimate the causal impacts of benefits in the first state‐level paid family leave program for women with earnings near the maximum benefit threshold. We find no evidence that a higher weekly benefit amount (WBA) increases leave duration or leads to adverse future labor market outcomes for this group. In contrast, we document that a rise in the WBA leads to an increased likelihood of returning to the pre‐leave firm (conditional on any employment) and of making a subsequent paid family leave claim.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Sarah Bana","Kelly Bedard","Maya Rossin‐Slater"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22242","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8bc49e87409a37a5","title":"Pay Transparency and the Gender Gap","abstract":"We examine the impact of public sector salary disclosure laws on university faculty salaries in Canada. The laws, which enable public access to the salaries of individual faculty if they exceed specified thresholds, were introduced in different provinces at different times. Using detailed administrative data covering the majority of faculty in Canada, and an event-study research design that exploits within-province variation in exposure to the policy across institutions and academic departments, we find robust evidence that the laws reduced the gender pay gap between men and women by approximately 20–40 percent.","wordCount":91,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Michael Baker","Yosh Halberstam","Kory Kroft","Alexandre Mas","Derek Messacar"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20210141","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8bc9f0cf28b890ec","title":"The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis","abstract":"Whether fiscal policy exacerbates or counteracts fluctuations in the economy is a key policy issue, because it contributes to growth and inflation outcomes. However, existing literature provides partly contradictory findings. Therefore, we provide the first quantitative synthesis by applying meta-regression methods to a novel data set with 3536 cyclicality estimates from 154 studies. Our main findings are: on average, fiscal policy in advanced countries is countercyclical, but developing countries lean towards procyclicality. Furthermore, government spending policies exacerbate business cycle fluctuations more than tax policies. Finally, fiscal policy plans are more countercyclical than policy outcomes. Results are robust to tackling endogeneity between the business cycle and fiscal policy. While our analysis points to several stylised facts, it also highlights the importance of data and specification choices and allows for predictions concerning the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy given best-practice assumptions on study design.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Philipp Heimberger"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106259","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8bf722579f2743d4","title":"On the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle","abstract":"Estimates using daily data following the June 2021 FOMC meeting corroborate the main results. This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves explains cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation realized over the 2021-22 Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening that led to a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Across a broad sample of countries, we document that an additional 10 percentage points of FX reserves/GDP held ex-ante were associated with 1.5 to 2 percent less exchange rate depreciation against the US dollar and this buffer effect was larger among less financially developed economies. Effects were more pronounced for large-reserve countries that sold reserves to intervene than for large-reserve countries that did not intervene, supporting the presence of both balance sheet and intervention channels. Higher ex-ante policy rates were also associated with less depreciation especially among financially open economies. An analysis of daily currency movements following the June 2021 FOMC meeting corroborates the main results. These findings suggest that FX reserves may promote monetary policy independence in the presence of global spillovers .","wordCount":175,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Rashad Ahmed","Joshua Aizenman","Jamel Saadaoui","Gazi Salah Uddin"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111367","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8c217ef55e55a2ad","title":"Global drivers of inflation: The role of supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks","abstract":"The determinants of inflation rates have been extensively studied with no clear consensus. Recent research highlights the growing influence of global supply factors, notably supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks. This paper analyzes the changing impact of these global supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks, compared to demand shocks, on inflation rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. from 1998 to 2022. The findings reveal that since the mid-2010s, supply shocks have become the predominant drivers of inflation. After the Global Financial Crisis, commodity price shocks significantly affected inflation in Germany, the U.K., and the U.S., while the influence of global supply chain disruptions on inflation in all four countries surged following the COVID-19 pandemic.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Elena María Díaz","Juncal Cuñado","Fernando Pérez de Gracia"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106860","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8c3e828302a85712","title":"The distributional effects of climate change. An empirical analysis","abstract":"The role of climate change on output has been studied extensively in the empirical literature. However, its distributional implications have received little attention. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating if climate shocks affect income inequality. Using a Vector Autoregression for a large cross-country panel, we identify the climate shock in the frequency domain as the shock that explains the bulk of the variance of climate variables in the long-run. An adverse climate shock is associated with an increase in measures of income inequality, affecting mostly low income households. The impact of the shock is larger in magnitude for low income, hot countries with a significant agricultural sector and low degree of adaptation to climate change.","wordCount":118,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Haroon Mumtaz","Angeliki Theophilopoulou"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104828","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8c52e796198255bf","title":"Knowledge Diffusion and Intellectual Change: When Chinese Literati Met European Jesuits","abstract":"From 1580, the Jesuits introduced European sciences to China―an autarkic civilization whose intelligentsia was dominated by Confucian literati. Drawing upon prefectural distributions of the Jesuits and Chinese scientific works, this paper demonstrates that the Jesuits stimulated Confucian literati to study science. On average, the literati’s scientific works increased four times in prefectures with Jesuit scientists after 1580. But this effect shrank after the Jesuits were expelled by the emperor of China in 1723. Since China’s scholar-official system remained unchanged, the literati’s scientific research aimed to serve the needs of statecraft rather than translating into economic progress.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Chicheng Ma"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050721000413","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8c5adc14348cc834","title":"Supply chain risk: Changes in supplier composition and vertical integration","abstract":"Using textual analysis of earnings conference calls, we quantify firms' supply chain risk and explore how firms react when supply chain risk increases. We show that firms with supply chains that span across continents, multinationals, and firms with fewer suppliers of an input face higher supply chain risk. In addition, firms exhibit high supply chain risk when their suppliers also do so. Firms manage supply chain risk by establishing relationships with closer and domestic suppliers and with suppliers that are industry leaders and by vertically integrating, but they continue to work with suppliers in other continents.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Nuri Ersahin","Mariassunta Giannetti","Ruidi Huang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103854","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8c62bcd49520a0f6","title":"Statistical inference in evolutionary dynamics","abstract":"We introduce evolutionary dynamics for two-action games where agents with diverse preferences use statistical inference to guide their behavior. We show that the dynamic converges to a Bayesian sampling equilibrium with statistical inference (SESI) and the set of Bayesian SESIs is globally asymptotically stable. We discuss the global convergence to a unique Bayesian SESI in anti-coordination games, a welfare-improving tax scheme, equilibrium selection in coordination games, an application to the diffusion of behavior on networks, and the extension to multi-action games.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ryoji Sawa","Jiabin Wu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.11.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8c6cc48131e1ce7c","title":"Nonlinearities in the institutions-growth relationship in a dynamic panel data framework: Evidence from China’s provinces","abstract":"It is by now a well-established fact that good institutions are key to long-run economic performance. However, there is also a growing body of literature that argues that the nature of the interaction between institutional quality and economic growth is complex and might not always be positive and linear. Our paper contributes to this discussion by focusing on China, which has achieved remarkable growth over three decades despite relatively low institutional quality. In particular, we analyze potential nonlinearities in the institutions-growth relationship across Chinese provinces within a dynamic panel data framework using Fan et al.’s NERI marketization index and system GMM estimation techniques. Our findings show that improvements in institutions are harmful to economic growth at very low levels of institutional quality. This attenuating-growth effect persists until a critical threshold is reached; beyond this threshold, the positive effect of institutional quality on growth starts to unfold and continues rising up to a second threshold after which diminishing marginal returns of institutional quality start to manifest. Importantly, our findings are robust when using an alternative measure of economic activity, namely satellite night-time lights. Our findings have important policy implications for China and other developing countries that are seeking to enhance their economic growth prospects through institutional reform.","wordCount":206,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Linda Glawe"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102583","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8c71156c3fb1dc42","title":"Commodity prices and bank lending","abstract":"We analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries. A bank‐level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending, particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms‐of‐trade decline. We complement this analysis with loan‐level data from a credit register, which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit, controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers' credit demand. Results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Isha Agarwal","Rupa Duttagupta","Andrea Presbitero"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12836","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8c727f8423f5bdff","title":"Bitcoin unchained: Determinants of cryptocurrency exchange liquidity","abstract":"We study bitcoin to US dollar (BTCUSD) liquidity and liquidity determinants using order book data from three large cryptocurrency exchanges. The BTCUSD market is more liquid than US equity markets with bid–ask spreads often below 1 basis point. We find that BTCUSD liquidity is largely explained by same-exchange past liquidity, past cryptocurrency market-wide liquidity and volatility, and fees charged on the blockchain for bitcoin transfers. Surprisingly, we find that BTCUSD liquidity is unrelated to broader financial markets and financial market liquidity.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Alexander Brauneis","Roland Mestel","Ryan Riordan","Erik Theissen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.08.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8cb13c7894288cba","title":"Colonial legacy and land market formality","abstract":"We study the role of Dutch colonial institutions on urban development for the megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia. Using historical maps of Dutch settlements and a rich granular database, we implement a boundary discontinuity design comparing locations on either side of Dutch boundaries. We find that historical Dutch areas today have significantly lower parcel density, are more likely to have formally registered parcels, and have more regular parcel layout, pointing to the importance of planning and cadastral mapping. Dutch settlements are also more likely to appear formal, as per a photographic index that ranks the appearance of neighborhoods. We highlight the role of land market institutions over alternative channels, such as direct Dutch investments or natural advantage.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Mariaflavia Harari","Maisy Wong"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103789","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8cb32fe85e07ef2a","title":"The rapid rise of agricultural mechanization in Myanmar","abstract":"The past decade has seen a resurgence of interest in the role of mechanization in agricultural development. This literature has given rise to debates over the design of institutions and policies to facilitate accelerated mechanization, the role of outsourcing services in overcoming problems of access to machinery, and questions regarding the future of smallholder agriculture. We contribute to these debates using two pairs of complementary demand side (farm household) and supply side (agricultural machinery retailer) surveys, implemented in Myanmar in 2016 and 2017 across two major agro-ecological zones. Our analysis provides evidence that extremely rapid agricultural mechanization took place during the period of political and economic reforms from 2011 to 2020. In both zones surveyed, use of machinery for land preparation, harvesting, and threshing was close to scale-neutral due to a dynamic outsourcing services market. Rather than representing a single transformational change, mechanization’s broad appeal to farm households results from an accumulation of incremental, overlapping, complementary advantages. These include labor savings, reduced drudgery, convenience, increased speed and timeliness of operations, improved ability to manage weather-related risks, and reduced loss of grain during harvesting. We provide examples of policies on trade, finance, and land tenure that contributed to this transformation with practical implications for ongoing policy debates on mechanization in other countries, and suggest some generalizable lessons.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Ben Belton","Myat Thida Win","Xiaobo Zhang","Mateusz Filipski"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102095","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8cb6bdb808a124a2","title":"Experience and rationality under risk: re-examining the impact of sampling experience","abstract":"A recent strand of the literature on decision-making under uncertainty has pointed to an intriguing behavioral gap between decisions made from description and decisions made from experience. This study reinvestigates this description-experience gap to understand the impact that sampling experience has on decisions under risk. Our study adopts a complete sampling paradigm to address the lack of control over experienced probabilities by requiring complete sampling without replacement. We also address the roles of utilities and ambiguity, which are central in most current decision models in economics. Thus, our experiment identifies the deviations from expected utility due to over- (or under-) weighting of probabilities. Our results confirm the existence of the behavioral gap, but they provide no evidence for the underweighting of small probabilities within the complete sampling treatment. We find that sampling experience attenuates rather than reverses the inverse S-shaped probability weighting under risk.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Ilke Aydogan","Yu Gao"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09641-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ccbe331407cdc1d","title":"Competition and risk taking in local bank markets: Evidence from the business loans segment","abstract":"This paper studies empirically the relationship between competition and risk taking in banking markets. We exploit an unique dataset providing information about all bank loans to Norwegian firms over several years. Rather than relying on observed market shares, we use the distance between bank branches and firms to measure the competitiveness of local markets. The cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in competition in local markets are used to identify the relationship between competition and risk taking, which we measure by the non-performing loans and loss provision rates of the individual banks. We find that more competition leads to more risk taking. We also examine the effects of bank competition on the availability of loans. More competition leads to lower interest rates and higher loan volumes, but also makes it more difficult for small and newly established firms to obtain a loan.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Chiara Canta","Øivind Anti Nilsen","Simen A. Ulsaker"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.06.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8cd0c08cb7d694e4","title":"How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence","abstract":"We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms’ incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Olivier Coibion","Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Saten Kumar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20151299","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8cd36ed1801d7591","title":"IV Quantile Regression for Group-Level Treatments, With an Application to the Distributional Effects of Trade","abstract":"We present a methodology for estimating the distributional effects of an endogenous treatment that varies at the group level when there are group-level unobservables, a quantile extension of Hausman and Taylor, 1981. Because of the presence of group-level unobservables, standard quantile regression techniques are inconsistent in our setting even if the treatment is independent of unobservables. In contrast, our estimation technique is consistent as well as computationally simple, consisting of group-by-group quantile regression followed by two-stage least squares. Using the Bahadur representation of quantile estimators, we derive weak conditions on the growth of the number of observations per group that are sufficient for consistency and asymptotic zero-mean normality of our estimator. As in Hausman and Taylor, 1981, micro-level covariates can be used as internal instruments for the endogenous group-level treatment if they satisfy relevance and exogeneity conditions. Our approach applies to a broad range of settings including labor, public finance, industrial organization, urban economics, and development; we illustrate its usefulness with several such examples. Finally, an empirical application of our estimator finds that low-wage earners in the United States from 1990 to 2007 were significantly more affected by increased Chinese import competition than high-wage earners.","wordCount":195,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Denis Chetverikov","Bradley Larsen","Christopher Palmer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12121","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8ce34d1c7fdbf379","title":"Heat exposure and child nutrition: Evidence from West Africa","abstract":"Extreme heat shocks are increasingly linked to poor economic and health outcomes. This paper constructs hour-degree bins of temperature exposure to assess the effects of extreme heat on early child nutrition, a health outcome correlated with educational attainment and income in adulthood. Linking 15 rounds of repeated cross-section data from five West African countries to geo-coded weather data, we find that extreme heat exposure increases the prevalence of both chronic and acute malnutrition. We find that a 2 °C rise in temperature will increase the prevalence of stunting by 7.4 percentage points, reversing the progress made on improving nutrition during our study period.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Sylvia Blom","Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea","John Hoddinott"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102698","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ce8424494b20a4b","title":"Socially optimal plea bargaining with costly trials and bayesian juries","abstract":"This paper investigates optimal plea bargaining when trials are costly, defendant guilt is uncertain, and juries rationally respond to the plea bargaining policy employed. The model shows that when innocence rates among the arrested are low, it is optimal to offer all defendants pleas that are acceptable to guilty and innocent defendants. However, as the innocence rate becomes more significant, optimal plea policy switches to one in which plea offers are only acceptable to guilty defendants. However, even when optimal, the societal benefits to such separating policies are limited due to constraints on the frequency such offers can be made.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["David Bjerk"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12922","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8cec1f8e16646cff","title":"Network Externality and Subsidy Structure in Two-Sided Markets: Evidence from Electric Vehicle Incentives","abstract":"This paper uses new, large-scale vehicle registry data from Norway and a two-sided market framework to show nonneutrality of different subsidies and estimate their impact on electric vehicle adoption when network externalities are present. Estimates suggest a strong positive connection between electric vehicle purchases and both consumer price and charging station subsidies. Counterfactual analyses suggest that between 2010 and 2015, every dollar spent on station subsidies resulted in more than twice as many additional electric vehicle purchases than the same amount spent on price subsidies. However, this relation inverts with increased spending, as station subsidies’ impact tapers off faster.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Katalin Springel"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190131","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8cf4ad142a809d50","title":"Creative Destruction of Industries: Yokohama City in the Great Kanto Earthquake, 1923","abstract":"The Great Kanto Earthquake occurred on 1 September 1923 and inflicted serious damage on Yokohama City. About 90 percent of the factories in Yokohama City were burnt down or completely destroyed. However, these manufacturing industries appear to have swiftly recovered in the aftermath of the damage. This article investigates the role of creative destruction due to the Great Kanto Earthquake. Using firm-level data on capital (horsepower of motors) before and after the earthquake, we find substantial creative destruction, that is, upgrade of machine technology and/or survival of efficient firms. We find further collaborating evidence of this at the prefecture level.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Tetsuji Okazaki","Toshihiro Okubo","Eric Strobl"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000748","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-8cfd3320d84081b6","title":"Financial Constraints, Firms’ Supply Chains, and Internationalization","abstract":"Using a unique sample of small and medium-sized Italian firms, we investigate the effect of financial constraints on firms’ participation in domestic and international supply chains. We find that firms more exposed to bank credit rationing and with weaker relationships with banks are more likely to participate in supply chains to overcome liquidity shortages. This benefit of supply chains is especially strong when firms establish long-term trading relationships and when they forge ties with large and international trading partners. To control for possible endogeneity of firms’ access to credit, we construct instruments capturing exogenous shocks to the structure of the Italian local banking markets.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Raoul Minetti","Pierluigi Murro","Zeno Rotondi","Susan Chun Zhu"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx056","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8d16317be5b66c6f","title":"Competing with asking prices","abstract":"In many markets, sellers advertise their good with an asking price. This is a price at which the seller will take his good off the market and trade immediately, though it is understood that a buyer can submit an offer below the asking price and that this offer may be accepted if the seller receives no better offers. We construct an environment with a few simple, realistic ingredients and demonstrate that, by using an asking price, sellers both maximize their revenue and implement the efficient outcome in equilibrium. We provide a complete characterization of this equilibrium and use it to explore the implications of this pricing mechanism for transaction prices and allocations.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Benjamin Lester","Ludo Visschers","Ronald Wolthoff"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1846","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-8d17e2bdc11cb6d1","title":"Long-Run Impacts of Agricultural Shocks on Educational Attainment: Evidence from the Boll Weevil","abstract":"The boll weevil spread across the South from 1892 to 1922 with devastating effect on cotton cultivation. The resulting shift away from this child labor–intensive crop lowered the opportunity cost of school attendance. We investigate the insect’s long-run effect on educational attainment using a sample of adults from the 1940 census linked back to their childhood census records. Both white and black children who were young (ages 4 to 9) when the weevil arrived saw increased educational attainment by 0.24 to 0.36 years. Our results demonstrate the potential for conflict between child labor in agriculture and educational attainment.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Richard B. Baker","John Blanchette","Kimmo Eriksson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000779","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8d34e372c3df54aa","title":"Innovation agglomeration and urban hierarchy: evidence from Chinese cities","abstract":"Innovation agglomeration leads to changes in the hierarchical structure of innovation, driving regional economic development. We establish a general equilibrium framework for urban innovation, that is to say, the process of production in a city can be divided into the knowledge production sector and final goods production sector. By this we explain the positive matching relationship between innovation agglomeration and a city’s position in the urban hierarchy (herein called urban tier). Then we empirically analyse 286 prefecture level Chinese cities to evaluate the impact of urban tier on innovation agglomeration using a two-way fixed effect model. To reveal the nonlinear relationship between urban hierarchy and innovation agglomeration, panel quantile and threshold regression models were also used. The main results show that: (1) The spatial structure of innovation in Chinese cities is consistent with the urban tier, and the urban tier plays a significant role in promoting innovation agglomeration. (2) Heterogeneous spatial structures of innovation among urban tiers are reflected in the higher agglomeration of innovation resources in high-tier cities, and the impact of city scale on innovation agglomeration is nonlinear. When the city scale reaches a certain threshold value, its impact on innovation agglomeration is significantly strengthened.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Fei Fan","Shangze Dai","Keke Zhang","Haiqian Ke"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1937507","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8d4c42bb3f46ce59","title":"Inflation convergence in the EMU","abstract":"We study the convergence properties of inflation rates among the countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1980–2013. Recently developed panel unit root/stationarity tests cannot reject the stationarity hypothesis. This implies that some countries have been in the process of converging absolutely or relatively. By using a clustering algorithm we statistically detect three absolute convergence clubs in the pre-euro period, which comprise early accession countries. In particular, Luxembourg clusters with Austria and Belgium, while a second sub-group includes Germany and France and the third The Netherlands and Finland. We also detect two separate clusters of early accession countries in the post-1997 period: a sub-group with Germany, Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, and one with France and Finland. For the rest of the countries/cases we find evidence of divergent behavior. Robustness is checked by testing pairwise convergence in a Bayesian framework. The outcome broadly confirms our findings.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Menelaos Karanasos","Panagiotis Koutroumpis","Yiannis Karavias","Aris Kartsaklas","Veni Arakelian"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.07.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8d510417b535a32d","title":"On the cost of misperception: General results and behavioral applications","abstract":"In a choice model, we characterize the loss induced by misperceptions of payoff-relevant parameters across a distribution of decision problems. When the agent cannot avoid misperceptions but has some control over the distribution of errors, we show that strategies that minimize loss from misperception exhibit systematic biases, akin to some documented in the behavioral and psychological literatures. We include illusion of control, order effect, overprecision, and overweighting of small probabilities as illustrative examples.","wordCount":73,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Olivier Gossner","Jakub Steiner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.08.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8d60fea78e27ee6b","title":"Violence Against Women: A Cross‐cultural Analysis for Africa","abstract":"Using a new dataset, we investigate violence against women in Africa. We focus on cultural factors arising from pre‐colonial customs, and show that these factors determined social norms about gender roles, family structures and intra‐family violence, which persisted even when the initial conditions change. A first set of ancestral characteristics relates to women's economic role: ethnic groups where women participated less in production (e.g. due to plough agriculture, husbandry or fishing) have higher levels of violence against women today, and more acceptance of it. A second set of ancestral characteristics pertains to marriage patterns and living arrangements. Endogamy and co‐residence with the husband's family are strongly positively associated with both the level and the acceptance of domestic violence. We also uncover a sizeable gender gap in attitudes towards violence, with women being more likely to justify violence compared to men. This gap is predicted by differences in demographic characteristics and by ancestral characteristics, such as co‐residence with the husband's family and the use of the plough. Our analysis sheds light on the origin, and long‐term persistence, of gender norms conducive to gender‐based violence.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Alberto Alesina","Benedetta Brioschi","Eliana La Ferrara"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12343","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8d788003b22346ab","title":"Learning in a black box","abstract":"We study behavior in repeated interactions when agents have no information about the structure of the underlying game and they cannot observe other agents' actions or payoffs. Theory shows that even when players have no such information, there are simple payoffbased learning rules that lead to Nash equilibrium in many types of games. A key feature of these rules is that subjects search differently depending on whether their payoffs increase, stay constant or decrease. This paper analyzes learning behavior in a laboratory setting and finds strong confirmation for these asymmetric search behaviors in the context of voluntary contribution games. By varying the amount of information we show that these behaviors are also present even when subjects have full information about the game.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Heinrich H. Nax","Maxwell N. Burton-Chellew","Stuart A. West","H. Peyton Young"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8d835bba978ada6e","title":"How Do Employers Use Compensation History? Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"We report the results of a field experiment in which treated employers could not observe the compensation history of their job applicants. Treated employers responded by evaluating more applicants and evaluating those applicants more intensively. They also responded by changing what kind of workers they evaluated: treated employers evaluated workers with 5% lower past average wages and hired workers with 13% lower past average wages. Conditional on bargaining, workers hired by treated employers struck better wage bargains for themselves.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Moshe Barach","John J. Horton"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/709277","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-8d936accb15f51c2","title":"Can a ‘veil of ignorance’ reduce the impact of distortionary taxation on public good valuations?","abstract":"Monetary valuations for mortality and health risk reductions, elicited through stated preference surveys, have been shown to include values placed on others’ welfare. Less attention has been paid to how these altruistic concerns, and hence willingness to pay (WTP), are affected when the public good is to be provided through taxation. We set up a theoretical framework to investigate this issue and show that when we move away from a first-best tax, WTP becomes distorted. However, once a ‘Veil of Ignorance’ is introduced into the model, this distortionary impact is reduced. We test this empirically using a laboratory experiment and confirm our theoretical findings, generating WTP values that are closer to the social optimum.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Morgan Beeson","Susan Chilton","Michael Jones‐Lee","Hugh Metcalf","Jytte Seested Nielsen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09306-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8d9f82ee955f829a","title":"Political connections and media bias: Evidence from China","abstract":"This paper examines how political connections shape media bias and contribute to regulatory noncompliance in China's capital markets. Using a large sample of news articles on publicly listed non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), we find that politically connected firms receive significantly more favorable media coverage than their unconnected peers. A difference-in-differences analysis exploiting a regulatory shock—China's Rule 18 anti-corruption regulation—that forced politically connected directors to resign confirms the link between political ties and biased reporting. Around corporate scandals, politically connected firms face softer media scrutiny, weakening reputational penalties. Critically, we show that this media shielding effect increases the likelihood of repeated regulatory violations. These findings highlight the social costs of the “scandal-covering” role of political connections, which not only distort the information environment but also undermine regulatory deterrence and market discipline.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Denis Schweizer","Xinjie Wang","Ge Wu","Aoran Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102835","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-8da378634294303b","title":"Mask wars: Sourcing a critical medical product from China in times of COVID-19","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically heightened global demand for critical medical goods, with China being a key supplier. This paper examines the political factors that eased global access to face masks, a vital product during the initial phase of the pandemic. Employing a triple difference-in-differences event study framework, we compare the export dynamics of face masks with those of similar products. Our findings indicate that face mask prices surged after the outbreak of the pandemic, and China’s exports increased in response. Amid global shortages, political alignment at the national and subnational levels, particularly through political ties with Chinese provinces, played a significant role in driving the increase in China’s face mask exports to partner countries. These political connections contributed to export growth at both the extensive and intensive margins. Moreover, sister city relationships appear to have assisted in mitigating the early price increases.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Andreas Fuchs","Lennart Kaplan","Krisztina Kis‐Katos","Sebastian Leue","Felix Turbanisch","Feicheng Wang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104068","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8db63afba875dc2d","title":"How to stimulate single mothers on welfare to find a job: evidence from a policy experiment","abstract":"We present the results from a policy experiment in which single mothers on welfare were stimulated to enter the labor market and increase their work experience. The aim of the policy was not per se for single mothers to leave welfare completely but to encourage them to find a job if only a part-time job. Two policy instruments were introduced: an earnings disregard and job creation. The experiment was performed at the municipality level in the Netherlands, a country with relatively high benefits and low incentives for single mothers to leave welfare for work. In our analysis, we make a distinction between native and immigrant welfare recipients. For immigrant single mothers, we find a positive employment effect of an earnings disregard. Job creation in addition to the earnings disregard increased working hours for some groups of single mothers. Although the outflow from welfare was not affected, welfare expenditures were reduced.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Marike Knoef","Jan C. van Ours"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-016-0593-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8dbe0dddd87a428d","title":"Financial inclusion, economic development, and inequality: Evidence from Brazil","abstract":"We study a financial inclusion policy targeting Brazilian cities with low bank branch coverage using data on the universe of employees from 2000–2014. The policy leads to bank entry and to similar increases in both deposits and lending. It also fosters entrepreneurship, employment, and wage growth, especially for cities initially in banking deserts. These gains are not shared equally and instead increase with workers’ education, implying a substantial increase in wage inequality. The changes in inequality are concentrated in cities where the initial supply of skilled workers is low, indicating that talent scarcity can drive how financial development affects inequality.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Julia Fonseca","Adrien Matray"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103854","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8dc467233009cb88","title":"Can Private Copyright Protection Be Effective? Evidence from Book Publishing","abstract":"Digitization has impacted publishing, news, and entertainment industries in recent years by lowering the cost of access. With the option to download creative works legally, however, come the possibility of doing so illegally and the issue of how to protect copyrighted works effectively. Public (legislative) and formal (legal) efforts to prevent","wordCount":51,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Imke Reimers"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/687521","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8dcb493e2b130b53","title":"Offshoring, Automation, Low-Skilled Immigration, and Labor Market Polarization","abstract":"We show that the observed polarization of employment toward the high- and low-skill occupations disappears when only native workers are considered. Instead, low-skilled immigration explains employment growth at the low tail of the skill distribution. Moreover, while employment rose, wages remained subdued in low-skill occupations. A data-disciplined structural model accounts for this evidence: Offshoring and automation negatively affect middle-skill occupations but enhance employment and wages for the high-skilled. Low-skill employment is sheltered from offshoring and automation, as it consists of manual, non-tradable services. However, low-skilled immigration depresses low-skill wages and encourages native workers to move into skilled occupations through training.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Federico Mandelman","Andrei Zlate"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180205","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8dd20a9f966b2726","title":"U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics","abstract":"Using data for 70 U.S. metropolitan areas, this study explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics. We use recent advances in panel econometrics that allow for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary but cointegrated data. We test for spatial differences and analyze the relationship between the price elasticity of housing supply and the income elasticity of prices, as well as bubble size and duration. The long-term elasticity of house prices with respect to aggregate personal income averages 0.81, but varies considerably across metropolitan areas. The long-term income elasticity generally is greater in the more supply-inelastic metropolitan areas, and we show that bubble size and duration are inversely related to supply elasticity. Also short-term momentum and reversion dynamics show substantial spatial heterogeneity.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Elias Oikarinen","Steven C. Bourassa","Martin Hoesli","Janne Engblom"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2018.03.001","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8de0f1a57cdfcbec","title":"Start-up Nation? Slave Wealth and Entrepreneurship in Civil War Maryland","abstract":"Slave property rights yielded a source of collateral as well as a coerced labor force. Using data from Dun and Bradstreet linked to the 1860 census and slave schedules in Maryland, we find that slaveowners were more likely to start businesses prior to the uncompensated 1864 emancipation, even conditional on total wealth and human capital, and this advantage disappears after emancipation. We assess a number of potential explanations, and find suggestive evidence that this is due to the superiority of slave wealth as a source of collateral for credit rather than any advantage in production. The collateral dimension of slave property magnifies its importance to historical American economic development.","wordCount":109,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Felipe González","Guillermo Marshall","Suresh Naidu"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000493","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8de1d488068dff55","title":"Cross-border trade in electricity","abstract":"This paper develops a novel economic theory of two-way trade in a homogenous good, electricity. In this model of ‘reciprocal load smoothing,’ international trade provides insurance. As electricity demand is stochastic and correlated across jurisdictions, electric utilities can reduce their cost during peak periods by importing cheaper off-peak electricity from neighbouring jurisdictions. Two-way trade emerges in the presence of strongly convex marginal costs. Observed trade between Canadian provinces and US states strongly supports the theoretical model. Reciprocal load smoothing provides an economic rationale for integrating North America's fragmented interconnections into a continental ‘supergrid’ if technological progress in long-distance bulk transmission continues to reduce costs.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Werner Antweiler"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.03.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8de385389ca6d43a","title":"Shuttle diplomacy","abstract":"In practice mediation operates through shuttle diplomacy: the mediator goes back and forth between parties, meeting them in private. We model shuttle diplomacy as a dynamic procedure. The mediator helps each party to gradually discover (privately) her value from settlement and re-assess her bargaining position, while also proposing the terms of the deal. We show that shuttle diplomacy always allows parties to achieve an ex-post efficient final settlement. In contrast, this is not possible with a static mediation procedure. In addition, if parties have symmetric prior value distributions, shuttle diplomacy guarantees a fair split of the social value from settlement.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Piero Gottardi","Claudio Mezzetti"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105794","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-8de942ee25d8beef","title":"I Perceive Therefore I Demand: The Formation of Inequality Perceptions and Demand for Redistribution","abstract":"This paper shows that perceptions of inequality matter for demand for redistribution and investigates how individuals form their perceptions. Using data from the ISSP, we present new evidence on the significant changes of perceptions of inequality for more than 20 countries during the last three decades and how these are not in synch with changes in objective inequality. Rather than indicating misperceptions, these discrepancies reflect a broader view of inequality that for most individuals encompasses poverty, insecurity in the labor markets, availability of public goods in addition to objective income disparities. We then show that these perceptions have much stronger correlation with demand for redistribution than objective inequality, or any of the mentioned contextual variables that mold perceptions. Ideology and self‐interest also contribute to demand for redistribution. Much more than those on the left, right‐leaning individuals adjust their demand for redistribution in line with their inequality perceptions.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Maurizio Bussolo","Ada Ferrer‐i‐Carbonell","Anna Giolbas","Iván Torre"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12497","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8deb4b4ef8292b94","title":"Culture, legal origins, and financial development","abstract":"This study proposes that countries with a cultural orientation toward individualism tend to enjoy a higher level of financial development. Estimates based on cross‐country data lend strong support to this hypothesis. Specifically, the results indicate that existing disparity in the level of financial development is significantly correlated with variation in the extent of individualism across countries, where a one standard deviation increase in individualism is associated with 0.631 standard deviations improvement in the level of financial development. The results are robust to a number of considerations. Additional results provide some support to the notion that individualistic culture and legal origin may serve as complements rather than substitutes to each other.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["James B. Ang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12755","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8def550e69fc16f7","title":"Migration, congestion, and growth","abstract":"This article analyzes the effect of migration from a less advanced economy to a more advanced economy on economic growth. The analysis is performed in a two-country growth model with endogenous fertility, in which congestion diseconomies are incorporated. The model shows that out-migration increases fertility and reduces human capital in the source economy. At the same time, in-migration reduces fertility and can increase or decrease the average level of human capital in the host economy. I show how migration affects the inter-temporal evolution of human capital in the world economy. I also demonstrate that a tax imposed on immigrants in the host economy can increase human capital accumulation in the receiving and sending economies and the world as a whole.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Leonid V. Azarnert"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517001043","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8df35243ad636932","title":"Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Non-Stationary Location Models with Mixture of Normal Distributions","abstract":"We consider an observation-driven location model where the unobserved location variable is modeled as a random walk process and where the error variable is from a mixture of normal distributions. The time-varying location can be extended with a stationary process to account for cyclical and/or higher order autocorrelation. The mixed normal distribution can accurately approximate many continuous error distributions. We obtain a flexible modeling framework for the robust filtering and forecasting based on time-series models with non-stationary and nonlinear features. We provide sufficient conditions for strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter vector in the specified model. The asymptotic properties are valid under correct model specification and can be generalized to allow for potential misspecification of the model. A simulation study is carried out to monitor the forecast accuracy improvements when extra mixture components are added to the model. In an empirical study we show that our approach is able to outperform alternative observation-driven location models in forecast accuracy for a time-series of electricity spot prices.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Francisco Blasques","J. van Brummelen","Paolo Gorgi","Siem Jan Koopman"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105575","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8e1d887aebbfb5c8","title":"Belief Elicitation with a Synchronized Lottery Choice Menu That Is Invariant to Risk Attitudes","abstract":"This paper uses a Bayesian information processing task to compare belief elicitation mechanisms including a quadratic scoring rule, a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak pricing procedure, and a two-stage menu of lottery choices that is structured to identify a precise point of probability indifference. The choice menu yields a higher incidence of correct Bayesian responses and lower belief error averages. Unlike the quadratic scoring rule, the binary payoffs for the lottery choice mechanism are synchronized to provide theoretical incentive-compatibility regardless of risk attitudes. In addition, the choice menu structure is more transparent and intuitive than the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak procedure.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Charles A. Holt","Angela M. Smith"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20130274","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8e24c5267d46eb0c","title":"The effects of cash for clunkers on local air quality","abstract":"We study the effects of a large car scrappage scheme in Germany on new car purchases and local air quality by combining vehicle registration data with data on local air pollutant emissions. For identification we exploit cross-sectional variation across districts in the number of cars eligible for scrappage. The scheme had substantial effects on car purchases and did not simply reallocate demand across time in the short-term. Nevertheless, about half of all subsidized buyers benefited from windfall gains. The renewal of the car stock improved local air quality suggesting substantial mortality benefits that likely exceed the cost of the policy. While policy take-up is somewhat smaller in urban districts, improvements in air quality and health tend to be larger due to a higher car density.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Ines Helm","Nicolas Koch","Alexander Rohlf"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103576","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8e2ce6d2d0f30bf1","title":"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children’s learning and wellbeing: Evidence from India","abstract":"We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated school closure on primary school children's learning and mental wellbeing in Assam, India. Using a comprehensive dataset that tracked and repeatedly surveyed approximately 5000 children across 200 schools between 2018 and 2022, we find that children lost the equivalent of nine months of learning in mathematics and eleven months in language, during the pandemic. Children lacking resources and parental support experienced the largest losses. Regular practice, teacher interaction, and technology were associated with less learning loss. Over the same period, children's psychological wellbeing improved. Our research provides valuable insights for designing post-emergency programs.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Andrea Guariso","Martina Björkman Nyqvist"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103133","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8e35feadb541bc9b","title":"Volume, Volatility, and Public News Announcements","abstract":"We provide new empirical evidence for the way in which financial markets process information. Our results rely critically on high-frequency intraday price and volume data for the S&P 500 equity portfolio and U.S. Treasury bonds, along with new econometric techniques, for making inference on the relationship between trading intensity and spot volatility around public news announcements. Consistent with the predictions derived from a theoretical model in which investors agree to disagree, our estimates for the intraday volume-volatility elasticity around important news announcements are systematically below unity. Our elasticity estimates also decrease significantly with measures of disagreements in beliefs, economic uncertainty, and textual-based sentiment, further highlighting the key role played by differences-of-opinion.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Tim Bollerslev","Jia Li","Yuan Xue"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy003","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8e50ba30df847070","title":"Punishment or deterrence? Environmental justice construction and corporate equity financing––Evidence from environmental courts","abstract":"In this study, we explore the impact of the establishment of environmental courts, an environmental justice system, on the cost of equity capital. Based on a quasi-natural experiment of establishing environmental courts in China, we find that they have a deterrent effect and reduce the cost of equity capital for heavily polluting firms in localities. We also find that a low proportion of managerial ownership, a low level of analyst attention, and high environmental uncertainty induce this deterrent effect. Furthermore, mechanism tests indicate that environmental courts enhance corporate environmental engagement and corporate ESG ratings, increase long-term institutional investor ownership, and reduce urban environmental violations to achieve a deterrent effect. The findings are more pronounced for the trial court sample, firms in cities with lower public participation in environmental protection, and firms with lower environmental information transparency. We also suggest the impacts and underlying mechanisms of the environmental justice system on the equity capital market, which is conducive to long-term planning by firm managers.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Huixiang Zeng","Lei Ren","Xiaohong Chen","Qiong Zhou","Tao Zhang","Xu Cheng"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","L","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102583","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8e50d76371b49b9a","title":"The intergenerational transmission of liberal professions","abstract":"By using university administrative and survey data on Italian graduates, we analyse the intergenerational transmission of liberal professions. We find that having a father who is a liberal professional has a positive and significant effect on the probability of a graduate of becoming a liberal professional. To assess the processes at work in this intergenerational transmission, we evaluate the effect of having a liberal professional father on the probabilities to undertake each of the compulsory steps required to become a liberal professional, which are choosing a university degree providing access to a liberal profession, completing a period of practice, passing a licensing exam and starting a liberal profession. Having a liberal professional father has a positive and statistically significant effect on the probability to complete a compulsory period of practice and to start a liberal profession; whereas there does not seem to be an effect on the type of degree chosen and on passing the licensing examination, at least after controlling for child’s and parental formal human capital.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Carmen Aina","Cheti Nicoletti"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.12.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8e5eb9b4db9ab746","title":"Dependence structure and dynamic connectedness between green bonds and financial markets: Fresh insights from time-frequency analysis before and during COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"This paper examines the interdependence between green bonds and financial markets in the time-frequency domain by utilizing the multivariate wavelet approach and dynamic connectedness through combining Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) with Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover framework. The findings of wavelet multiple correlations indicate that the benefits of diversification opportunities are more evident in the short run. The evidence of wavelet multiple cross-correlations reveals that green bonds and financial markets are highly integrated in the long run. The results of the static connectedness framework explain that the direction and magnitude of spillover behave differently across markets. The world stock market is the net spillover transmitter, while the corporate bond market is the net spillover receiver among the selected markets. The green bond market is receiving more but transmitted less volatility in the present study. The evidence on dynamic connectedness measured by the rolling window approach shows that the interconnection between green bonds and financial markets is volatile over time. These pieces of evidence provide implications to global investors having a strong position in the green bonds market in terms of risk management and portfolio decisions.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Ahmed H. Elsayed","Nader Naifar","Samia Nasreen","Aviral Kumar Tiwari"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105842","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8e7fea5218b3018a","title":"Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right","abstract":"Immigration is one of the most divisive political issues in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and several other Western countries. We estimate the impact of immigration on voting for far-left and far-right candidates in France, using panel data on presidential elections from 1988 to 2017. To derive causal estimates, we instrument more recent immigration flows by settlement patterns in 1968. We find that immigration increases support for far-right candidates. This is driven by low-educated immigrants from non-Western countries. We also find that immigration has a weak negative effect on support for far-left candidates, which could be explained by a reduced support for redistribution. We corroborate our analysis with a multinomial choice analysis using survey data.","wordCount":117,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Anthony Edo","Yvonne Giesing","Jonathan Öztunc","Panu Poutvaara"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.03.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8e88f5018cc39502","title":"A Time for Action on Climate Change and a Time for Change in Economics","abstract":"The case for action on climate change with urgency and at scale rests on the immense magnitude of climate risk, the very rapid emissions reductions which are necessary, and that there is a real opportunity to create a new and attractive form of growth and development. The analysis must be based on a dynamic approach to the economics of public policy, set in a complex, imperfect and uncertain world. The economics of climate change, and further, economics more broadly, must change to respond to the challenge of how to foster rapid transformation. It is time for economics and economists to step up.","wordCount":102,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Nicholas Stern"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8e95c65ea8513958","title":"Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change","abstract":"Geophysicists examine and document the repercussions for the earth’s climate induced by alternative emission scenarios and model specifications. Using simplified approximations, they produce tractable characterizations of the associated uncertainty. Meanwhile, economists write highly stylized damage functions to speculate about how climate change alters macroeconomic and growth opportunities. How can we assess both climate and emissions impacts, as well as uncertainty in the broadest sense, in social decision-making? We provide a framework for answering this question by embracing recent decision theory and tools from asset pricing, and we apply this structure with its interacting components to a revealing quantitative illustration.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Michael Barnett","William Brock","Lars Peter Hansen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz144","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8e9cfc160261b596","title":"Social Learning with Costly Search","abstract":"We study a sequential social learning model where agents privately acquire information by costly search. Search costs of agents are private, and are independently and identically distributed. We show that asymptotic learning occurs if and only if search costs are not bounded away from zero. We explicitly characterize equilibria for the case of two actions, and show that the probability of late moving agents taking the suboptimal action vanishes at a linear rate. Social welfare converges to the social optimum as the discount rate converges to one if and only if search costs are not bounded away from zero.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Manuel Mueller-Frank","Mallesh M. Pai"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20130253","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8ea0db7801dda51d","title":"CEO compensation: Evidence from the field","abstract":"We survey directors and investors on the objectives, constraints, and determinants of CEO pay. We find that directors face constraints beyond participation and incentives, and that pay matters not to finance consumption but to address CEOs’ fairness concerns. 67% of directors would sacrifice shareholder value to avoid controversy, leading to lower levels and one-size-fits-all structures. Shareholders are the main source of constraints, suggesting directors and investors disagree on how to maximize value. Intrinsic motivation and reputation are seen as stronger motivators than incentive pay. Even with strong portfolio incentives, flow pay responds to performance to fairly recognize the CEO's contribution.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Alex Edmans","Tom Gosling","Dirk Jenter"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103718","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ea66c29500ce6e9","title":"Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: Loan applications, rates, and real effects","abstract":"Recent studies of monetary policy in developing countries document a weak bank lending channel based on aggregate data. In this paper, we bring new evidence using Uganda's supervisory credit register, with microdata on loan applications, volumes and rates, coupled with unanticipated variation in monetary policy. We show that a monetary contraction reduces bank credit supply—increasing loan application rejections and tightening loan volume and rates—especially for banks with more leverage and sovereign debt exposure. There are associated spillovers on inflation and economic activity—including construction permits and trade—and even social unrest.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Charles Abuka","Ronnie Kyamureku Alinda","Camelia Minoiu","José‐Luis Peydró","Andrea Presbitero"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.03.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8ea911c9386f9dcf","title":"Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage","abstract":"This paper develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous investors and sovereign default to analyze the dynamic link between banking sector capitalization and sovereign bond yields. The banking sector is modelled as operating under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint, which can bind occasionally. As default risk rises, the constraint may bind, generating a fall in demand for sovereign bonds that can be accompanied by a rise in the risk premium if other agents are more risk averse. In turn, the rise in risk premium leads to a feedback effect through debt accumulation dynamics and the probability of government default.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Nuno Coimbra"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103298","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8eb070a4033db93b","title":"Do refugees impact crime? Causal evidence from large-scale refugee immigration to Germany","abstract":"Does large-scale refugee immigration affect crime rates in receiving countries? We address this question based on the large and unexpected refugee inflow to Germany that peaked in 2015–2016. Arriving refugees were dispersed across the country based on a binding dispersal policy, yet we show that systematic regional sorting remains. Our empirical approach examines spatial correlations between refugee inflows and crime rates using the administrative allocation quotas as instrumental variables. Our results indicate that crime rates were not affected during the year of refugee arrival, but there was an increase in crime rates one year later. This lagged effect is small per refugee but large in absolute terms and is strongest for property and violent crimes. The crime effects are robust across specifications and in line with increased suspect rates for offenders from refugees’ origin countries. Yet, we find some indication of over-reporting.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Martin Lange","Katrin Sommerfeld"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102466","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8eba8df14ac0b5be","title":"Adaptation interventions and their effect on vulnerability in developing countries: Help, hindrance or irrelevance?","abstract":"This paper critically reviews the outcomes of internationally-funded interventions aimed at climate change adaptation and vulnerability reduction. It highlights how some interventions inadvertently reinforce, redistribute or create new sources of vulnerability. Four mechanisms drive these maladaptive outcomes: (i) shallow understanding of the vulnerability context; (ii) inequitable stakeholder participation in both design and implementation; (iii) a retrofitting of adaptation into existing development agendas; and (iv) a lack of critical engagement with how ‘adaptation success’ is defined. Emerging literature shows potential avenues for overcoming the current failure of adaptation interventions to reduce vulnerability: first, shifting the terms of engagement between adaptation practitioners and the local populations participating in adaptation interventions; and second, expanding the understanding of ‘local’ vulnerability to encompass global contexts and drivers of vulnerability. An important lesson from past adaptation interventions is that within current adaptation cum development paradigms, inequitable terms of engagement with ‘vulnerable’ populations are reproduced and the multi-scalar processes driving vulnerability remain largely ignored. In particular, instead of designing projects to change the practices of marginalised populations, learning processes within organisations and with marginalised populations must be placed at the centre of adaptation objectives. We pose the question of whether scholarship and practice need to take a post-adaptation turn akin to post-development, by seeking a pluralism of ideas about adaptation while critically interrogating how these ideas form part of the politics of adaptation and potentially the processes (re)producing vulnerability. We caution that unless the politics of framing and of scale are explicitly tackled, transformational interventions risk having even more adverse effects on marginalised populations than current adaptation.","wordCount":260,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Siri Eriksen","E. Lisa F. Schipper","Morgan Scoville-Simonds","Katharine Vincent","Hans Nicolai Adam","Nick Brooks","Brian Harding","Dil Khatri","Lutgart Lenaerts","Diana Liverman","Megan Mills‐Novoa","Marianne Mosberg","Synne Movik","Benard Muok","Andrea J. Nightingale","Hemant Ojha","Linda Sygna","Marcus Taylor","Coleen Vogel","Jennifer Joy West"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105383","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ebd1c910225b862","title":"Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of the 2014–2017 ‘Refugee Crisis’ in Italy on voting behavior and the rise of right-wing populism in national Parliamentary elections. Our analysis exploits unique administrative data on refugee reception centers across Italian municipalities and exogenous variation in refugee resettlement induced by the Dispersal Policy. We find a positive and significant effect, although small in magnitude, of the share of asylum seekers on support for radical-right anti-immigration parties, which runs in parallel with a decline in public support for center-left parties. We further examine the mechanisms underlying this shift in political preferences and provide causal evidence that anti-immigration backlash rather than being rooted in adverse economic effects is triggered by radical-right propaganda and hate-speech.","wordCount":118,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Francesco Campo","Sara Giunti","Mariapia Mendola"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104826","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8ec8d1ef81715a7c","title":"Living under ecosystem degradation: Evidence from the mangrove–fishery linkage in Indonesia","abstract":"This study examines the impacts of ecosystem degradation on social welfare, focusing on the mangrove–fishery linkage in Indonesia. Using nationally representative household data combined with satellite information on spatiotemporal mangrove loss, the study finds that fishery households experienced a decline in annual income ranging from 5.3% to 9.8% in response to a 1% increase in mangrove loss in the region. Under the income shock, fishery households increased their labor input and decreased their non-food consumption; however, they continued being part of the fishery industry. Furthermore, according to a back-of-the-envelope calculation, the potential economic value of mangrove conservation, estimated in terms of fishery production reached 22,861 US$/hectare/year. This makes conservation substantially more cost-effective than alternative land uses, such as aquaculture and oil palm plantations. These findings highlight the need to support mangrove forest conservation to achieve sustainable development and ecosystem conservation.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Yuki Yamamoto"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102788","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ecebc82551ed7c0","title":"What drives stock market participation? The role of institutional, traditional, and behavioral factors","abstract":"We analyze stock market participation in 19 European countries, providing a composite view of the interplay and relative importance of established participation drivers. We jointly control for nearly all relevant drivers found in prior studies, which tend to introduce one novel variable at a time and often omit risk-aversion. Excellent full model predictive power decomposes into institutional (country) fixed effects (about 30% of total), traditional individual-level variables (50%), and more recently identified behavioral variables (20%). We sketch a hierarchical framework where factors’ effects vary by agents’ proneness to participate. We also challenge and complement existing interpretations given to sociability, IQ, trust, and life experiences.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Markku Kaustia","Andrew Conlin","Niilo Luotonen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106743","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ed4b7b08a928c18","title":"Conducting interactive experiments online","abstract":"Online labor markets provide new opportunities for behavioral research, but conducting economic experiments online raises important methodological challenges. This particularly holds for interactive designs. In this paper, we provide a methodological discussion of the similarities and differences between interactive experiments conducted in the laboratory and online. To this end, we conduct a repeated public goods experiment with and without punishment using samples from the laboratory and the online platform Amazon Mechanical Turk. We chose to replicate this experiment because it is long and logistically complex. It therefore provides a good case study for discussing the methodological and practical challenges of online interactive experimentation. We find that basic behavioral patterns of cooperation and punishment in the laboratory are replicable online. The most important challenge of online interactive experiments is participant dropout. We discuss measures for reducing dropout and show that, for our case study, dropouts are exogenous to the experiment. We conclude that data quality for interactive experiments via the Internet is adequate and reliable, making online interactive experimentation a potentially valuable complement to laboratory studies.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Antonio A. Arechar","Simon Gächter","Lucas Molleman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9527-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8edacf11762bc516","title":"Environmental research joint ventures and time-consistent emission tax: Endogenous choice of R&D formation","abstract":"This paper provides a new analytical framework of endogenous choice for environmental R&D formation. Furthermore, this paper presents an examination of environmental R&D of four types in a Cournot duopoly in a setting where a regulator has no precommitment ability for an emission tax. Results reveal that if the environmental damage is slight, or given severe environmental damage and large inefficiency in environmental R&D costs, then social welfare under environmental research joint venture (ERJV) cartelization is higher than in the other three scenarios: environmental R&D competition, environmental R&D cartelization, and ERJV competition. However, if environmental damage is severe, and if a firm's R&D costs are limited, then, in stark contrast to results of previous studies, environmental R&D competition is socially superior to any of the other three scenarios, although R&D competition is a case without information sharing and R&D coordination.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Yasunori Ouchida","Daisaku Goto"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.01.025","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ee9cae76986aac3","title":"Atmospheric Pollution, Health, and Height in Late Nineteenth Century Britain","abstract":"In nineteenth century Britain atmospheric pollution from coal-fired industrialization was on the order of 50 times higher than today. We examine the effects of these emissions on child development by analysing the heights on enlistment during WWI of men born in England and Wales in the 1890s. We find a strong negative relationship between adult heights and the coal intensity of the districts in which these men were observed as children in the 1901 census. The subsequent decline in atmospheric pollution likely contributed to the long-term improvement in health and increase in height.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Roy E. Bailey","Timothy J. Hatton","Kris Inwood"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000578","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8eed9b5ce8ab339b","title":"The Effect of Education on Civic and Political Engagement in Nonconsolidated Democracies: Evidence from Nigeria","abstract":"Developing democracies are experiencing unprecedented increases in primary and secondary schooling. To identify education's long-run political effects, we use a difference-in-differences design that leverages variation across local government areas and gender in the intensity of Nigeria's 1976 universal primary education reform—one of Africa's largest ever educational expansions—to instrument for education. We find large increases in basic civic and political engagement: better educated citizens are more attentive to politics, more likely to vote, and more involved in community associations. The effects are largest among minority groups and in fractionalized areas, without increasing support for political violence or own-group identification.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Horacio Larreguy","John Marshall"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00633","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8ef2fcbf10d71135","title":"Identifiability and estimation of possibly non-invertible SVARMA Models: The normalised canonical WHF parametrisation","abstract":"This article focuses on the parametrisation, identifiability, and (quasi-) maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of possibly non-invertible structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models. SVAR models are routinely adopted due to their well-known implementation strategy. However, for various economic and statistical reasons, multivariate SVARMA settings are often more suitable. These settings introduce complexity in the analysis, primarily due to the presence of the moving average (MA) polynomial. We propose a novel representation of the MA polynomial matrix using the Wiener–Hopf factorization (WHF). A significant advantage of the WHF is its ability to handle possible non-invertibility and thus models with informational asymmetry between economic agents and outside observers. Since solutions of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models often involve this informational asymmetry, SVARMA models in WHF parametrisation can be considered data-driven alternatives to DSGE models and used for their evaluation. Furthermore, we provide low-level conditions for the asymptotic normality of the (Q)ML estimator and analytic expressions for the score and information matrix. As application, we estimate the Blanchard and Quah model, and compare our results and implied impulse response function with the ones in the SVAR model by Blanchard and Quah and a non-invertible SVARMA model by Gouriéroux and co-authors. Importantly, we have implemented this novel method in a well-documented R-package, making it readily accessible for researchers and practitioners.","wordCount":217,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Bernd Funovits"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105766","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8ef5081659bc2d73","title":"Women's labour force participation in nineteenth‐century England and Wales: evidence from the 1881 census enumerators’ books","abstract":"This article uses a new source of data, namely the full sample of the 1881 census enumerators’ books, to study female labour force participation. It examines the interaction between labour demand and supply to gauge their relative importance in determining female labour force participation rates (LFPRs). Three main findings emerge from the current article. First, there is an unmistakable link between labour demand and female LFPRs. High levels of female labour force participation are found in areas where there were industries with ample demand for female labour. Second, supply‐side factors also had clear effects on female LFPRs. However, they can only operate within the limit imposed by the demand‐side conditions. Third, female migration did not fundamentally change the spatial patterns of female LFPRs. Overall, this article argues that the demand side of the female labour market was the most important factor in determining female LFPRs in nineteenth‐century England and Wales.","wordCount":150,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Xuesheng You"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12876","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8efe44b7641ae044","title":"Public financing with financial frictions and underground economy","abstract":"What are the aggregate effects of informality in a financially constrained economy? We develop and calibrate an entrepreneurship model to data on matched employer-employee from both formal and informal sectors in Brazil. The model distinguishes between informality on the business side and the hiring of informal workers by formal businesses. Policies that reduce business informality increase aggregate output by 10.8%, TFP by 6.6%, and tax revenue by 33.2%. On the contrary, output and TFP decrease when policies reduce the intensive margin of informality, underscoring that the informal economy can play a positive role in an economy with financial frictions.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Andrés Erosa","Luisa Fuster","Tomás Martinez"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.12.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8f0872f6a1100765","title":"The Returns to Microenterprise Support among the Ultrapoor: A Field Experiment in Postwar Uganda","abstract":"We show that extremely poor, war-affected women in northern Uganda have high returns to a package of $150 cash, five days of business skills training, and ongoing supervision. Sixteen months after grants, participants doubled their microenterprise ownership and incomes, mainly from petty trading. We also show these ultrapoor have too little social capital, but that group bonds, informal insurance, and cooperative activities could be induced and had positive returns. When the control group received cash and training 20 months later, we varied supervision, which represented half of the program costs. A year later, supervision increased business survival but not consumption.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Christopher Blattman","Eric Green","Julian Jamison","M. Christian Lehmann","Jeannie Annan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f0b80264de3f788","title":"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula","abstract":"Using a novel set of instrumental variables in a structural VAR framework, we investigate the economic impact of uncertainty shocks from geopolitical swings on the Korean Peninsula over 2003–17. We construct robust instrumental variables for these shocks based on high‐frequency changes in financial asset returns and their volatilities around the geopolitical events. The empirical results suggest that heightened geopolitical uncertainty has negative impacts on macroeconomic outcomes in South Korea. We provide evidence that financial and capital markets play a key role in the transmission of geopolitical uncertainty shocks.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Jongrim Ha","Seohyun Lee","Inhwan So"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12456","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f10b02aa0c3f5de","title":"Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections","abstract":"We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6–1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.","wordCount":80,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Thomas Fujiwara","Kyle C. Meng","Tom Vogl"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140533","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f149fa16f05ced3","title":"Sensitive Survey Questions: Measuring Attitudes Regarding Female Genital Cutting Through a List Experiment","abstract":"Potential bias in survey responses is higher if sensitive outcomes are measured. This study analyses attitudes towards female genital cutting (FGC) in Ethiopia. A list experiment is designed to elicit truthful answers about FGC support and compares these outcomes with the answers given to a direct question. Our results confirm that the average bias is substantial as answers to direct questions underestimate the FGC support by about 10 percentage points. Moreover, our results provide suggestive but not statistically significant evidence that this bias is more pronounced among uneducated women and women targeted by an NGO intervention (not randomly assigned).","wordCount":99,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Elisabetta De Cao","Clémens Lutz"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12228","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-8f17a61e1ac392cd","title":"Do government performance signals affect citizen satisfaction?","abstract":"Previous studies have confirmed the causal effect of performance information on citizen satisfaction, but they were primarily conducted in survey experimental settings that featured hypothetical and abstract scenarios and primed respondents to look at certain aspects of performance information. Whether the causal effects hold in the real world, which is a much more complex information environment, is questionable. We address the gaps by employing a regression discontinuity design to identify the impact of public schools’ performance grades on parents’ satisfaction with teachers and overall education in New York City. We find that performance signals have independent and lasting effects on citizens’ satisfaction. However, the effects are nonlinear, depending on the levels of performance signals. Parents’ responses are muted at the A/B performance grade cutoff, but their satisfaction increases significantly at the B/C and C/D cutoffs if their schools earn relatively higher grades.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Weijie Wang","Taek Kyu Kim"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22597","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f18699591d0a450","title":"Do Patents Enable Disclosure? Evidence from the Invention Secrecy Act","abstract":"This paper provides empirical evidence suggesting that patents may facilitate knowledge disclosure. The analysis exploits the Invention Secrecy Act, which grants the U.S. Commissioner for Patents the right to prevent the disclosure of new inventions that represent a threat to national security. Using a two-level matching approach, we document a negative and large relationship between the enforcement of a secrecy order and follow-on inventions, as captured with patent citations and text-based measures of invention similarity. The effect carries over to after the lift of the secrecy period, suggesting a lost generation of inventions. The results bear implications for innovation and intellectual property policy.","wordCount":103,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Gaétan de Rassenfosse","Gabriele Pellegrino","Emilio Raiteri"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.103044","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8f3ac66dbbcb9ed6","title":"Understanding “Wage Theft”: Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases","abstract":"This paper presents strong evidence that minimum wage increases lead to a greater prevalence of subminimum wage payment. Using the Current Population Survey, we estimate that increases in measured underpayment following minimum wage increases average between 12 and 17 percent of realized wage gains. Our baseline analyses focus on workers ages 16 to 25, while additional analyses consider workers ages 16 to 65. In addition, we find that firms and workers comply to a far greater degree with minimum wage increases that are forecastable, modest, and regular than with minimum wage increases enacted through new legislation. We also find evidence that states’ enforcement regimes influence the compliance patterns we observe. We interpret these findings as evidence that while minimum wage compliance is the norm, noncompliance is an important, economically nuanced reality in the low-wage labor market.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Jeffrey Clemens","Michael R. Strain"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102285","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8f443204087161e2","title":"Understanding climate risk in Europe: Are transition and physical risk priced in equity and fixed-income markets?","abstract":"This study explores how climate-related risk factors influence the European equity and fixed-income markets. We examine the effect of specific physical risk drivers, including temperature fluctuations, drought, floods, wind, and wildfire risk, on both stocks and bonds. Additionally, we assess the impact of transition risk using two potential indicators: the log-returns of futures on European Carbon Allowances and a Transition Risk Index derived from credit default spreads. We also compare them to see if they carry the same information. Our findings reveal that climate risk variables have different effects on stocks and bonds, with stock returns appearing mostly unaffected by climate-related variables. In contrast, bond z-spreads show significant statistical relationships with both physical and transition climate risks. Physical risk, on average, rewards the green bonds in the sample, and penalizes the traditional bonds. As for transition risk, the two proxies are shown to capture different types of information and to affect different bonds. This suggests that credit default swaps are pricing a transition risk that goes beyond carbon emissions.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Nicola Bartolini","Silvia Romagnoli","Amia Santini"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101672","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-8f46e2c4ac58451e","title":"Stabilization and commitment: Forward guidance in economies with rational expectations","abstract":"We construct a theory of forward guidance in economic policy making in order to provide a framework for explaining the role and strategic advantages of including forward guidance as an explicit part of policy design. We do this by setting up a general policy problem in which forward guidance plays a role, and then examine the consequences for performance when that guidance is withdrawn. We show that forward guidance provides enhanced controllability and stabilizability—especially where such properties may not otherwise be available. As a by-product, we find that forward guidance limits the scope and incentives for time-inconsistent behavior in an economy whose policy goals are ultimately reachable. It also adds to the credibility of a set of policies.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Andrew Hughes Hallett","Nicola Acocella"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051600002x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f4fbf3d20aca64d","title":"On the social inappropriateness of discrimination","abstract":"We experimentally investigate the relationship between discriminatory behaviour and the perceived social inappropriateness of discrimination. We conjecture that discrimination will be weaker when social norms oppose it. Our results support this prediction. Using a Krupka-Weber social norm elicitation task, we find participants perceive it to be more socially inappropriate to discriminate on the basis of nationality than on the basis of social identities artificially induced using a trivial minimal group technique. Correspondingly, we find that participants discriminate more in the artificial identity setting. Our results suggest norms and the preference to comply with them affect discriminatory decisions and that the social inappropriateness of discrimination moderates discriminatory behaviour.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Abigail Barr","Tom Lane","Daniele Nosenzo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.06.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8f57ea988c2769f0","title":"Memory, Attention, and Choice","abstract":"Building on a textbook description of associative memory (Kahana 2012), we present a model of choice in which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and decisions in two ways. First, recalled experiences form a norm, which serves as an initial anchor for valuation. Second, salient quality and price surprises relative to the norm lead to large adjustments in valuation. The model unifies many well-documented choice puzzles, including the attribution and projection biases, inattention to hidden attributes, background contrast effects, and context-dependent willingness to pay. Unifying these puzzles on the basis of selective memory and attention to surprise yields multiple new predictions.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Pedro Bordalo","Nicola Gennaioli","Andrei Shleifer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa007","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f58e4d2f2649d7b","title":"Intermediation and Steering: Competition in Prices and Commissions","abstract":"We explore the implications of steering by an informed profit-maximizing intermediary. The intermediary steers consumers by recommending firms, taking into account both the commissions firms offer and the prices they set. Such steering results in higher commissions and consumer prices, so that consumers only benefit from intermediation when their search cost is sufficiently high. Steering reverses the normal relationship between competition and price, with prices increasing in the number of competing firms. We use the framework to study various policies including commission caps (absolute or relative), commission disclosure, promoting information provision, and penalties for inappropriate advice.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Tat‐How Teh","Julian Wright"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190344","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f720004dabbde3f","title":"Randomizing Endowments: An Experimental Study of Rational Expectations and Reference-Dependent Preferences","abstract":"We test expectations-based reference dependence in market experiments with probabilistic forced exchange. Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) predict that when the probability of forced exchange increases, individuals cannot expect to stick with the status quo, and should grow more willing to exchange. This mechanism may eliminate and even reverse the “endowment effect” (Knetsch and Sinden 1984; Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler 1990). In a series of experiments with overall 930 subjects, we show some tentative support for the notion that attitudes toward exchange are influenced by the probability of forced exchange. However, the results are sensitive to small changes in experimental design.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Annette Cerulli-Harms","Lorenz Göette","Charles Sprenger"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170271","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8f9278e4eefcd180","title":"The heterogeneous and regressive consequences of COVID-19: Evidence from high quality panel data","abstract":"Using new data from the first two waves of the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study collected in April and in May 2020 in the UK, we study the labour market shocks that individuals experienced in the first wave of the pandemic, and the steps they and their households took to cope with those shocks. Understanding Society is based on probability samples and the Covid-19 Study is constructed carefully to support valid population inferences. The Covid-19 Study collected novel data on the mitigation strategies that individuals and households employ. Further, prior observation of respondents in the panel allows us to characterize regressivity with respect to pre-pandemic economic positions. Our key findings are that those with precarious employment, aged under 30 and from minority ethnic groups faced the biggest labour market shocks. Almost 50% of individuals have experienced declines in household earnings of at least 10%, but declines are most severe in the bottom pre-pandemic income quintiles. Methods of mitigation vary substantially across groups: borrowing and transfers from family and friends are most prevalent among those most in need.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Thomas F. Crossley","Paul Fisher","Hamish Low"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104334","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8f9fd3476579f982","title":"Trade in information technologies and changes in the demand for occupations","abstract":"I use data from the World Input-Output Database and show that trade in information technologies (IT) has a significant contribution to the growth in foreign intermediate goods in the 2001–2014 period. China has strongly contributed to the rise in trade in IT and has become one of the major foreign suppliers of IT. I merge these data with the EU KLEMS database and EU Labour Force Survey and obtain a dataset of 12 European countries and 2001–2007 period. I show that IT imports from China are associated with lower IT prices in European countries. The fall in IT prices has increased the demand for high wage occupations and reduced the demand for medium wage occupations. Nearly 25% of the variation in the demand for occupations can be attributed to the trade with China.","wordCount":133,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Vahagn Jerbashian"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101603","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8fc004cbbd770bbd","title":"Integrating Norms, Knowledge, and Social Ties into the Deterrence Model of Cartels: A Survey Study of Business Executives","abstract":"We expand the rational choice theory of crime, as applied to cartels, with three psychological factors—personal norms, social norms and social ties—and knowledge of competition law. Through a survey of Dutch businesses, we find that adding psychological factors substantially increases the explanatory power of the model: All predict attitudes toward future cartel behavior, with personal norms as the strongest (negative) predictor. Better knowledge of competition law relates to stronger deterrence and norms against collusion. We conclude that psychological factors and knowledge of the law are likely necessary to understand and prevent potential cartel behavior.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Loet van Stekelenburg","Peter T. Dijkstra","Elianne F. van Steenbergen","Jessanne Mastop","Naomi Ellemers"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09909-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8fda6c49d0aeb208","title":"Early Maternal Time Investment and Early Child Outcomes","abstract":"Using large longitudinal survey data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study, this article estimates the relationship between maternal time inputs and early child development. We find that maternal time is a quantitatively important determinant of skill formation and that its effect declines with child age. There is evidence of long-term effects of early maternal time inputs on later outcomes, especially in the case of cognitive skill development. In the case of non-cognitive development, the evidence of this long-term impact disappears when we account for skill persistence.","wordCount":86,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Emilia Del Bono","Marco Francesconi","Yvonne Kelly","Amanda Sacker"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12342","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-8fdb1710977692b3","title":"What Impedes Efficient Adoption of Products? Evidence from Randomized Sales Offers for Fuel-Efficient Cookstoves in Uganda","abstract":"Many consumers do not adopt products with health and wellbeing benefits apparently far greater than their costs. A sales offer combining a free trial, time payments, and the option of returning the product can overcome barriers such as liquidity constraints and poor information about benefits and usability. We tested this sales offer (and alternatives) in an experiment with a fuel-efficient charcoal stove in urban Uganda and a fuel-efficient wood stove in rural Uganda. Consistent with the importance of these barriers, this offer dramatically increased uptake—in urban Kampala, from 4% to 46%, and in rural Mbarara, from 5% to 57%.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["David I. Levine","Theresa Beltramo","Garrick Blalock","Carolyn Cotterman","Andrew M. Simons"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx051","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8fdce27219dafc07","title":"Benign Effects of Automation: New Evidence from Patent Texts","abstract":"We provide a new measure of automation based on patents and study its employment effects. Classifying all U.S. patents granted between 1976 and 2014 as automation or nonautomation patents, we document a strong rise in the number and share of automation patents. We link patents to their industries of use and to commuting zones. To estimate the effect of automation, we use an instrumental variables strategy that relies on innovations developed independently from U.S. labor market trends. We find that automation technology has a positive effect on employment in local labor markets, driven by job growth in the service sector.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Katja Mann","Lukas Püttmann"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01083","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-8fdffea5c5a5202d","title":"Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?","abstract":"Motivated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A Keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display a smaller multiplier, but the insurance benefit of fiscal transfers can be enhanced. Firm exits and job destruction can amplify and propagate the shock.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Veronica Guerrieri","Guido Lorenzoni","Ludwig Straub","Iván Werning"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201063","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8fe41eed2472611f","title":"GDP Per Capita Versus Median Household Income: What Gives Rise to the Divergence Over Time and how does this Vary Across OECD Countries?","abstract":"Divergence between the evolution of GDP per capita and the income of a “typical” household as measured in household surveys is giving rise to a range of serious concerns, especially in the USA. This paper investigates the extent of that divergence and the factors that contribute to it across 27 OECD countries, using data from OECD National Accounts and the Luxembourg Income Study. While GDP per capita has risen faster than median household income in most of these countries over the period these data cover, the size of that divergence varied very substantially, with the USA a clear outlier. The paper distinguishes a number of factors contributing to such a divergence, and finds wide variation across countries in the impact of the various factors. Further, both the extent of that divergence and the role of the various contributory factors vary widely over time for most of the countries studied. These findings have serious implications for the monitoring and assessment of changes in household incomes and living standards over time.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Brian Nolan","Max Roser","Stefan Thewissen"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12362","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-8ffc1290fc6eb66e","title":"Does adoption always follow innovation?","abstract":"The extent to which innovation is good news for environment depends not only on the research and development incentives but also on adoption stimulus. We analyze firm’s choice of abatement technology in vertical chains. A downstream polluting monopoly can sign a contract with an upstream supplier of mature end-of-pipe equipment or develop an in-house clean technology. We show that contracting plays a crucial role in the efficiency of environmental regulation in spurring adoption. We find that polluter’s innovation may be undertaken only to increase bargaining power and a share of industry profits he manages to capture. Consequently, polluter’s and regulator’s interests are not always aligned. The role of regulator as a technology forcing authority is partially confirmed in regions of under-investment. However, the regulator may not be able to trigger innovation and/or adoption if clean technology increases marginal costs too much. On the other hand, regulator may become laxer and oppose innovation in case of over-investment. All these results rely upon the creation of total profits from the integrated vertical structure and the partitioning rule.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Oliwia Kurtyka","Rania Mabrouk"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101514","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9001d2e2222332fc","title":"Focal points and payoff information in tacit bargaining","abstract":"Schelling proposed that payoff-irrelevant cues can affect the outcome of tacit bargaining games by creating focal points. Tests of this hypothesis have found that conflicts of interest between players inhibit focal-point reasoning. We investigate experimentally whether this effect is reduced if players have imperfect information about each other's payoffs. When players know only their own payoffs, they fail to ignore this information even though it cannot assist coordination; the effects of payoff-irrelevant cues on coordination success are small. When no exact information about payoffs is provided, payoff-irrelevant cues are more helpful, but not as much as when conflict is absent.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Andrea Isoni","Anders Poulsen","Robert Sugden","Kei Tsutsui"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.01.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-90033b5b55b3a9e8","title":"Endogenous Property Rights","abstract":"Although property rights are key, their determinants are still poorly understood. When property is fully protected, some potential buyers with valuation higher than that of original owners are inefficiently excluded from trade because of transaction costs. When property rights are weak, low-valuation potential buyers inefficiently expropriate original owners. The trade-off between these two misallocations implies that the protection of property will be stronger the more heterogeneous the potential buyer’s preferences are. This implication holds true when part of the population has more political influence on institutional design, when transaction costs are determined by either market power or asymmetric information, and when the disincentive effect of weak property rights is taken into account. Moreover, it is consistent with the relationships between measures of ethnolinguistic, genetic, and religious diversity and novel data on the rules on adverse possession and on government takings of real property in 126 jurisdictions.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Carmine Guerriero"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686985","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9003ac0f97365990","title":"When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers","abstract":"Minimum wage levels are rising around the globe. To shed more light on the possible unintended side effects of higher wage floors, we study the impact of a minimum wage introduction on wages and employment in a quasi-experimental setting where the minimum wage is set extraordinarily high during an economic downturn. We identify treatment effects along different wage and skill groups and find positive wage and employment spillover effects for medium-skilled workers with salaries just above the minimum wage. More striking, we find negative wage and employment effects for high-skilled workers who are further up the wage distribution, followed by reduced returns to skills and industry skill supply. We explain these adjustments with a substitution-scale model that predicts negative spillover effects whenever labor-labor substitutions toward high-skilled workers are overcompensated by an overall decline in industry employment. Even though we focus on a specialized industry, we lay out the general conditions under which such unfavorable adjustments may occur in other contexts.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Terry Gregory","Ulrich Zierahn"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104582","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-901be2d9e20e57fc","title":"The importance of peers for compliance with norms of fair sharing","abstract":"A burgeoning literature in economics has started examining the role of social norms in explaining economic behavior. Surprisingly, the vast majority of this literature has studied social norms in asocial decision settings, where individuals are observed to act in isolation from each other. In this paper we use a large-scale dictator game experiment (N = 850) to show that “peers” can have a profound influence on individuals’ perceptions of norms of fair sharing, which we elicit in an incentive compatible way. However, in contrast to these strong peer effects in social norms of fair sharing, we find limited evidence of the influence of norms and peers on actual sharing behavior. We discuss how these results can be explained by heterogeneity in normative views as well as in willingness to comply with norms.","wordCount":132,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Simon Gächter","Leonie Gerhards","Daniele Nosenzo"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9022ec2fa6aedbd3","title":"Asset pricing model uncertainty","abstract":"This paper provides a unified calendar-time portfolio methodology for assessing whether returns following an event are abnormal which efficiently handles asset pricing model uncertainty and allows for time-varying alpha and factor exposures. The approach disciplines researchers’ use of asset pricing factors and assigns a probability measure to the appropriateness of (dynamically) selecting a single model that best approximates the true factor structure or whether model averaging across an asset pricing universe is desired. It is applied to the long-horizon effect of dividend initiations and resumptions in the 1980 to 2015 period. Resulting post-announcement conditional abnormal returns are generally significant, statistically and economically, which contrasts recent evidence, and exhibits a break in mean from positive until the mid-1990s and negative onwards. We document substantial time-variation in the dimensionality and composition of the factor structure in expected returns, which goes beyond what captured by conditional versions of the CAPM and Fama–French specifications. This also generalizes to a large panel of 202 characteristics-sorted portfolios.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Daniel Borup"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.07.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-90478017c0872770","title":"Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?","abstract":"Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L‐shaped’ or ‘U‐shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U‐shaped recovery for postwar [working paper series] recessions. Most earlier recessions were U‐shaped but more recent recessions have been L‐shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relatively well by durable consumption, investment, labour hours and employment. Posterior probabilities for the shape of recoveries for nondurable consumption and participation rate are less decisive. However, total factor productivity appears to recover rapidly after all recessions.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sui Luo","Yu‐Fan Huang","Richard Startz"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12439","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-90480dd99870c52b","title":"Responsiveness to feedback as a personal trait","abstract":"We investigate individual heterogeneity in the tendency to under-respond to feedback (\"conservatism\") and to respond more strongly to positive compared to negative feedback (\"asymmetry\"). We elicit beliefs about relative performance after repeated rounds of feedback across a series of cognitive tests. Relative to a Bayesian benchmark, we find that subjects update on average conservatively but not asymmetrically. We define individual measures of conservatism and asymmetry relative to the average subject, and show that these measures explain an important part of the variation in beliefs and competition entry decisions. Relative conservatism is correlated across tasks and predicts competition entry both independently of beliefs and by influencing beliefs, suggesting it can be considered a personal trait. Relative asymmetry is less stable across tasks, but predicts competition entry by increasing self-confidence. Ego-relevance of the task correlates with relative conservatism but not relative asymmetry.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Thomas Buser","Leonie Gerhards","Joël J. van der Weele"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9277-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-905568effa314f70","title":"Can small farms benefit from big companies’ initiatives to promote mechanization in Africa? A case study from Zambia","abstract":"After years of neglect, there is a renewed interest in agricultural mechanization in Africa. Since government initiatives to promote mechanization are confronted with major governance challenges, private-sector initiatives may offer a promising alternative. However, given limited scientific studies on such private-sector options such approaches are often viewed skeptically. One concern is that multi-national agribusiness companies take advantage of smallholder farmers. Another concern is that mechanization causes rural unemployment. To shed light on these concerns, this paper analyzes an initiative of the agricultural machinery manufacturer John Deere to promote smallholder mechanization in Zambia through a contractor model. The analysis focuses on the impact of this initiative on farmers who receive tractor services using Propensity Score Matching. The results indicate that farmers can almost double their income by cultivating a much larger share of their land. The analysis suggests that the increased income is used for children’s education and more food, but does not result in increased food diversity. The demand for hired labor increases due to land expansion and due to a shift from family labor, including that of children, to hired labor. Questions that require further investigation are identified, including strategies to incentivize tractor owners to provide services, to also increase land productivity, and to avoid new forms of dependency of agricultural laborers that may result from a shift in the timing of the labor demand.","wordCount":226,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Ferdinand Adu-Baffour","Thomas Daum","Regina Birner"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.03.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-905a7d532e5dbe8b","title":"Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization","abstract":"We examine the effect of rainfall on agricultural output and democratization in the world’s most agricultural countries. As in the agricultural economics literature, we find that the relationship between rainfall and agricultural output has an inverted U‐shape, as agriculture is harmed by both droughts and very wet conditions. We also find the effect of rainfall on agricultural output to be transitory. The relationship between rainfall and democratization is U‐shaped in the short run, and this effect persists in the long run. Hence democratic transitions outlast the (transitory) rainfall shocks that started the democratization process. The U‐shaped relationship between rainfall and democratization is consistent with rainfall affecting democratization through its (inverted‐U‐shaped) effect on agricultural output.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Antonio Ciccone","Adilzhan Ismailov"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12405","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-905e20e97a118b28","title":"Electoral Cycles among US Courts of Appeals Judges","abstract":"We find field evidence consistent with experimental studies that document the contexts and characteristics making individuals more susceptible to priming. Just before US presidential elections, judges on the US courts of appeals double the rate at which they dissent and vote along partisan lines. Increases are accentuated for judges with less experience and in polarized environments. During periods of national unity—wartime, for example—judges suppress dissents, especially if they have less experience or are in polarized environments. We show that the dissent rate increases gradually from 6 percent to nearly 12 percent in the quarter before an election and returns immediately to 6 percent after the election. If highly experienced professionals making common-law precedent can be politically primed, it raises questions about the perceived impartiality of the judiciary.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Carlos Berdejó","Daniel L. Chen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696237","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-905f6c747daed68a","title":"Currency devaluations and beggar‐my‐neighbour penalties: evidence from the 1930s","abstract":"The currency devaluations of the 1930s facilitated a faster recovery from the Great Depression in the countries depreciating, but their unilateral manner provoked retaliatory and discriminatory commercial policies abroad. This article explores the importance of the retaliatory motive in the imposition of trade barriers by gold bloc countries during the 1930s and its effects on trade. Relying on new and existing datasets on the introduction of quotas, tariffs, and bilateral trade costs, the quantification of the discriminatory response suggests that these countries imposed significant beggar‐my‐neighbour penalties. The penalties reduced trade to a similar degree that modern regional trade agreements foster trade. Furthermore, the analysis of contemporary newspapers reveals that the devaluations of the early 1930s triggered an Anglo‐French trade conflict marked by tit‐for‐tat protectionist policies. With regards to global trade, the unilateral currency depreciations came at a high price in political and economic terms. These costs must have necessarily reduced their benefit to the world as a whole.","wordCount":158,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Thilo Albers"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12874","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9072b3dd28f78b03","title":"Statistical evidence and the problem of robust litigation","abstract":"We propose a new model of disclosure, interpretation, and management of hard evidence in the context of litigation and similar applications. A litigant has private information and may also possess hard evidence that can be disclosed to a fact‐finder, who interprets the evidence and decides a finding in the case. We identify conditions under which hard evidence generates value that is robust to the scope of rational reasoning and behavior. These fail if the litigant's private information is sufficiently strong relative to the “face‐value signal” of evidence, and then hard evidence may be misleading. Rules that exclude some relevant hard evidence can be justified.","wordCount":104,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Jesse Bull","Joel Watson"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12302","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-908de69916f9e1d1","title":"Welfare Dynamics With Synthetic Panels: The Case of the Arab World In Transition","abstract":"This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle‐class status in Arab countries. Absent panel data, we construct synthetic panels using repeated cross sections of household expenditure surveys and subjective wellbeing surveys conducted during the 2000s and early 2010s. Objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half of the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. The analysis with subjective wellbeing data suggests negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions and provides evidence on the eroding middle‐class consensus in Arab countries before and after the Arab Spring. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower chances for upward mobility and greater chances for downward mobility for both types of welfare measures.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Hai‐Anh Dang","Elena Ianchovichina"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-908fa20031972928","title":"China's domestic production networks","abstract":"This paper examines China's domestic production networks. It uses VAT invoices to build inter-provincial input-output tables for 2002 and 2012. These are combined with population censuses to determine the location of workers involved in production. We document i) increased trade in intermediate inputs between provinces; ii) inter-provincial production fragmentation that differs by product; iii) substitution of domestic for foreign intermediates, resulting in increased domestic value added in exports. Information about the occupations of workers suggest that iv) richer coastal areas such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai specialize in R&D and marketing activities, whereas v) inland provinces specialize in production activities.","wordCount":100,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Quanrun Chen","Yuning Gao","Jiansuo Pei","Gaaitzen J. de Vries","Fei Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","P","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101767","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-90a6257b847fa3f8","title":"How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?","abstract":"The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the U.S. suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid‐1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that the performance of microprocessor units (MPUs) has continued to improve at a rapid pace. Over the course of the 2000s, the MPU prices posted by Intel, the dominant producer of MPUs, became much stickier over the chips' life cycle. As a result of this change, we argue that the matched‐model methodology used in the PPI for MPUs likely started to be biased after the early 2000s and that hedonic indexes can provide a more accurate measure of price change since then. MPU prices fell rapidly through 2004 on every price measure we present, with the PPI declining at an even quicker pace than the hedonic indexes. However, from 2004 to 2009, our preferred hedonic index fell faster than the PPI, and from 2009 to 2013 the gap widened further, with our preferred index falling at an average annual rate of 42 percent, while the PPI declined at only a 6 percent rate. Given that MPUs currently represent about half of U.S. shipments of semiconductors, this difference has important implications for gauging the rate of innovation in the semiconductor sector.","wordCount":227,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["David Byrne","Stephen D. Oliner","Daniel E. Sichel"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12308","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-90aec759cb16f816","title":"Market-consistent valuation of natural catastrophe risk","abstract":"Natural catastrophe risk is increasingly being covered through alternative capital instead of reinsurance. Since most such instruments do not trade in an active market, their ongoing valuation is a challenge. As a solution, we propose to exploit pricing information embedded secondary market catastrophe bond quotes. Specifically, we use a reduced form model to extract implied Poisson intensities from regularly observed prices. Next, we show that the intensities can be explained by time to maturity and modeled probability of first loss. Along these two dimensions, we estimate smooth intensity surfaces that allow investors to mark illiquid catastrophe risk positions to market.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Simone Beer","Alexander Braun"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106350","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-90b46f7c2efafb39","title":"Household debt and income inequality: Evidence from Italian survey data","abstract":"Does regional income inequality affect a household’s likelihood of being indebted? This question is addressed by using survey data on Italian households. The analysis shows that inequality in the regional income distribution has a negative effect on the probability of being indebted. However, this effect is asymmetric across income groups: greater inequality increases (decreases) the share of indebted households that are at the top (bottom) of the income ladder. The study suggests that supply factors are more important than demand ones in explaining these results.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["David Loschiavo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12454","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-90b4d881e956919e","title":"Replicating Anomalies","abstract":"Most anomalies fail to hold up to currently acceptable standards for empirical finance. With microcaps mitigated via NYSE breakpoints and value-weighted returns, 65% of the 452 anomalies in our extensive data library, including 96% of the trading frictions category, cannot clear the single test hurdle of the absolute $t$-value of 1.96. Imposing the higher multiple test hurdle of 2.78 at the 5% significance level raises the failure rate to 82%. Even for replicated anomalies, their economic magnitudes are much smaller than originally reported. In all, capital markets are more efficient than previously recognized.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Kewei Hou","Xue Chen","Lu Zhang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy131","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-90b60cafea60083d","title":"Get Real! Individuals Prefer More Sustainable Investments","abstract":"The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have created societal and political pressure for pension funds to address sustainable investing. We run two field surveys (n = 1,669, n = 3,186) with a pension fund that grants its members a real vote on its sustainable-investment policy. Two-thirds of participants are willing to expand the fund’s engagement with companies based on selected SDGs, even when they expect engagement to hurt financial performance. Support remains strong after the fund implements the choice. A key reason is participants’ strong social preferences.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Rob Bauer","Tobias Ruof","Paul Smeets"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab037","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-90b8ab2e5cb6a507","title":"Reference‐dependent preferences, time inconsistency, and pay‐as‐you‐go pensions","abstract":"The classic Aaron–Samuelson result argues that pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pension schemes cannot coexist with higher‐return, private, retirement‐saving schemes. The ensuing literature shows if agents voluntarily undersave for retirement due to myopia or time‐inconsistency, then a paternalistic, rationale for PAYG pensions arises only if voluntary retirement saving is fully crowded out because of a binding borrowing constraint. This paper generalizes the discussion to the reference‐dependent utility setup of Kőszegi and Rabin (2009) where undersaving happens naturally. No borrowing constraint is imposed. We show it is possible to offer a non‐paternalistic, welfare rationale for return‐dominated, PAYG pensions to coexist with private, retirement saving.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Torben M. Andersen","Joydeep Bhattacharya","Liu Qing"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12972","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-90c46e7527e830b3","title":"Consumers' privacy choices in the era of big data","abstract":"Recent progress in information technologies provides sellers with detailed knowledge about consumers' preferences, approaching perfect price discrimination in the limit. We construct a model where consumers with less strategic sophistication than the seller's pricing algorithm face a trade-off when buying. They choose between a direct, transaction cost-free sales channel and a privacy-protecting, but costly, anonymous channel. We show that the anonymous channel is used even in the absence of an explicit taste for privacy if consumers are not too strategically sophisticated. This provides a micro-foundation for consumers' privacy choices. Some consumers benefit but others suffer from their anonymization.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Sebastian Dengler","Jens Prüfer"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.09.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-90d954cfbb911fcf","title":"Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It","abstract":"This paper studies whether house prices reflect belief differences about climate change. We show that in an equilibrium model of housing choice in which agents derive utility from ownership in a neighborhood of similar agents, prices exhibit different elasticities to climate risk. We use comprehensive transaction data to relate prices to inundation projections of individual homes and measures of beliefs about climate change. We find that houses projected to be underwater in believer neighborhoods sell at a discount compared to houses in denier neighborhoods. Our results suggest that house prices reflect heterogeneity in beliefs about long-run climate change risks.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Markus Baldauf","Lorenzo Garlappi","Constantine Yannelis"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz073","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-90e3b13590542dfe","title":"Internet and Politics: Evidence from U.K. Local Elections and Local Government Policies","abstract":"We empirically study the effects of broadband internet diffusion on local election outcomes and on local government policies using rich data from the U.K. Our analysis shows that the internet has displaced other media with greater news content (i.e. radio and newspapers), thereby decreasing voter turnout, most notably among less-educated and younger individuals. In turn, we find suggestive evidence that local government expenditures and taxes are lower in areas with greater broadband diffusion, particularly expenditures targeted at less-educated voters. Our findings are consistent with the idea that voters’ information plays a key role in determining electoral participation, government policies, and government size.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Alessandro Gavazza","Mattia Nardotto","Tommaso Valletti"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy028","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-90ef55b706107833","title":"Cash transfers, polygamy, and intimate partner violence: Experimental evidence from Mali","abstract":"Cash transfer programs primarily targeting women in Latin America and East Africa have been shown to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but knowledge gaps remain on how impacts differ by program features and context. Using a randomized control trial, we investigate the IPV impacts of Mali’s national cash transfer program (Jigisémèjiri), which targets household heads (primarily men) in a West African context where nearly 40 percent of households are polygamous. The program causes significant decreases in IPV in polygamous households – where physical violence decreases by 7.2 percentage points, emotional violence decreases by 12.6 percentage points, and controlling behaviors decrease by 16.1 percentage points -- but has limited effects in monogamous households. Evidence on mechanisms suggests that the program leads to significant decreases in men’s stress and anxiety among polygamous households, and larger reductions in disputes in polygamous households compared to monogamous households.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Rachel Heath","Mélissa Hidrobo","Shalini Roy"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102410","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-90fd1ba422d9f51f","title":"Energy Injustice and Nordic Electric Mobility: Inequality, Elitism, and Externalities in the Electrification of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Transport","abstract":"Much research on electric mobility transitions has been descriptive or positive, rather than normative or critical, assessing the deeper ethical, justice, or moral issues that arise. To address this gap, this study qualitatively examines the ongoing transition to Nordic electric vehicles (EVs) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems. It does so through the various lenses of distributive justice, procedural justice, cosmopolitan justice, and recognition justice. It asks: what are the types of injustices associated with electric mobility and V2G? In what ways do emerging patterns of electric mobility worsen socio-environmental risks or vulnerabilities? Based on original primary data collected from 257 experts across Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, the study finds that electric mobility can erode elements of distributive justice for being accessible only to the rich, and for raising risks related to privacy, hacking, and cyberterrorism. Electric mobility may contravene aspects of procedural justice by reinforcing exclusion and elitism in national planning. It can erode cosmopolitan justice by producing negative environmental externalities, and exacerbating rural (and global) vulnerability. It may threaten recognition justice through unemployment, disruption to traditional businesses, and the entrenchment of patriarchy. Thankfully, the study also proposes a suite of policy mechanisms to address many of these concerns.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Benjamin K. Sovacool","Johannes Kester","Lance Noel","Gerardo Zarazua de Rubens"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.11.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9108c27890c8e4ab","title":"Consumption Inequality and Family Labor Supply","abstract":"We examine the link between wage and consumption inequality using a life-cycle model incorporating consumption and family labor supply decisions. We derive analytical expressions for the dynamics of consumption, hours, and earnings of two earners in the presence of correlated wage shocks, nonseparability, progressive taxation, and asset accumulation. The model is estimated using panel data for hours, earnings, assets, and consumption. We focus on family labor supply as an insurance mechanism and find strong evidence of smoothing of permanent wage shocks. Once family labor supply, assets, and taxes are properly accounted for there is little evidence of additional insurance.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Richard Blundell","Luigi Pistaferri","Itay Saporta‐Eksten"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20121549","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-91162dab68f9bf01","title":"Something in the Air: Pollution and the Demand for Health Insurance","abstract":"We find that daily air pollution levels have a significant effect on the decision to purchase or cancel health insurance in a manner inconsistent with rational choice theory. A one standard deviation increase in daily air pollution leads to a 7.2% increase in the number of insurance contracts sold that day. Conditional on purchase, a one standard deviation decrease in air pollution during the cooling-off (i.e. cost-free cancellation) period relative to the order-date level increases the return probability by 4.0%. We explore a range of potential mechanism and find the most support for projection bias and salience.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Tom Chang","Wei Huang","Yong‐Xiang Wang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-911b64c2cd60e235","title":"Frontier Culture: The Roots and Persistence of “Rugged Individualism” in the United States","abstract":"The presence of a westward‐moving frontier of settlement shaped early U.S. history. In 1893, the historian Frederick Jackson Turner famously argued that the American frontier fostered individualism. We investigate the “frontier thesis” and identify its long‐run implications for culture and politics. We track the frontier throughout the 1790–1890 period and construct a novel, county‐level measure of total frontier experience (TFE). Historically, frontier locations had distinctive demographics and greater individualism. Long after the closing of the frontier, counties with greater TFE exhibit more pervasive individualism and opposition to redistribution. This pattern cuts across known divides in the United States, including urban–rural and north–south. We provide evidence on the roots of frontier culture, identifying both selective migration and a causal effect of frontier exposure on individualism. Overall, our findings shed new light on the frontier's persistent legacy of rugged individualism.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Samuel Bazzi","Martín Fiszbein","Mesay Gebresilasse"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16484","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-912d0b46026711b8","title":"Why Do Investors Hold Socially Responsible Mutual Funds?","abstract":"To understand why investors hold socially responsible mutual funds, we link administrative data to survey responses and behavior in incentivized experiments. We find that both social preferences and social signaling explain socially responsible investment (SRI) decisions. Financial motives play less of a role. Socially responsible investors in our sample expect to earn lower returns on SRI funds than on conventional funds and pay higher management fees. This suggests that investors are willing to forgo financial performance in order to invest in accordance with their social preferences.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Arno Riedl","Paul Smeets"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12547","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-913f6483a6ff6212","title":"How Do Institutions of Higher Education Affect Local Invention? Evidence from the Establishment of US Colleges","abstract":"I use narrative historical data on site selection decisions for a subset of US colleges to identify runner-up locations that were strongly considered to become the sites of new colleges. Using runner-up counties as counterfactuals in a difference-in-difference model, I find that establishing a college causes 62 percent more patents per year. Linking patents to novel college yearbook data reveals that only 12 percent of patents in a college’s county came from that college’s alumni or faculty. I find only small differences in patenting between establishing colleges and establishing other institutions as well as between colleges with different focuses on technical fields.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Michael Andrews"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200320","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-91832b202d5713cd","title":"Hybrid platform model: monopolistic competition and a dominant firm","abstract":"We model a platform controlling the variety and prices of the products it hosts via a percentage fee on sellers and choosing whether to sell its own products (hybrid mode). We derive a mixed market demand system for differentiated products with monopolistically competitive sellers and a sizeable platform product range. The hybrid platform steers consumers toward its products by charging higher seller fees than pure marketplace. This “insidious steering” intensifies the larger the platform's product footprint. Hybrid mode harms consumers compared to pure marketplace unless fringe entry is sufficiently inelastic.","wordCount":90,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Simon P. Anderson","Özlem Bedre Defolie"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12478","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-918f0fb7f33d22ed","title":"Comparing auction designs where suppliers have uncertain costs and uncertain pivotal status","abstract":"We analyze how market design influences bidding in multiunit procurement auctions where suppliers have asymmetric information about production costs. Our analysis is particularly relevant to wholesale electricity markets, because it accounts for the risk that a supplier is pivotal; market demand is larger than the total production capacity of its competitors. With constant marginal costs, expected welfare improves if the auctioneer restricts offers to be flat. We identify circumstances where the competitiveness of market outcomes improves with increased market transparency. We also find that, for buyers, uniform pricing is preferable to discriminatory pricing when producers' private signals are affiliated.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Pär Holmberg","Frank A. Wolak"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12259","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-91910a63b5c35507","title":"Do‐it‐yourself Digital: the Production Boundary, the Productivity Puzzle and Economic Welfare","abstract":"Part of the debate about the ‘productivity puzzle’ concerns potential mismeasurement of GDP due to digital activities. This paper discusses some measurement issues arising from digitally‐enabled substitutions in activity across the conventional production boundary. Production boundary issues are not new, as conventionally defined GDP statistics account for the monetary cost but not the time cost of consumption and production. This means that changes in the way in which time is allocated between market and home production affect measured growth and productivity, as well as economic welfare. Just as technological innovation in domestic appliances led to a substitution from home production into market consumption in the second half of the 20th century, today's digital innovations are driving some reverse substitution out of the market into home production. Statistical agencies do not currently collect the data needed to measure the scale of the switch, but the available evidence suggests that it may be enough to make a contribution to understanding the current productivity puzzle.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Diane Coyle"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12289","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-91a31b646998919b","title":"Can information improve rural governance and service delivery?","abstract":"In the context of an exponential rise in access to information in the last two decades, this special issue explores when and how information might be harnessed to improve governance and public service delivery in rural areas. Information is a critical component of government and citizens’ decision-making; therefore, improvements in its availability and reliability stand to benefit many dimensions of governance, including service delivery. Service delivery is especially difficult in rural areas which contain the majority of the world’s poor but face unique logistical challenges due to their remoteness. We review the features of the recent information revolution, including increased access to information due to both technological and institutional innovations. We then raise the question of why information often fails to support the goals of improved governance and service delivery. We argue that information alone is insufficient. To be impactful, the information must be deemed relevant, in the sense of being salient and having a high perceived signal-to-noise ratio, and individuals must have both the power and incentives to act on it. Bringing all three of these factors together in any setting is challenging, particularly for rural areas, where capacity to receive, understand, and act on information is relatively low. Research failing to find significant effects of greater access to information on rural governance and service delivery has largely failed due to one of these three factors not being in place. This interpretation is broadly supported by our review of 48 empirical studies on the impacts of information on governance and service delivery. We conclude by discussing broader lessons for both development research, including randomized control trials, and the development process itself. The goals of interventions to provide information may need to be more modest, and their design may merit more scrutiny.","wordCount":292,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Katrina Kosec","Léonard Wantchekon"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-91a53a6e2cf3c9da","title":"Economics at the FCC 2022–2023: Satellite Marketplace, Broadband Data Collection, Drive Testing, the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, and Broadcast Station Ownership","abstract":"The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is responsible for regulation of the communications marketplace and for management of the nation’s non-federal radio spectrum. During the past year, FCC economists have evaluated competitive changes in the satellite marketplace—including an analysis of the recently approved Viasat-Inmarsat and Eutelsat-OneWeb mergers. FCC economists also worked on the novel Broadband Data Collection and developed drive-testing methodologies in several proceedings. Further, FCC economists continued to work on the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline. Finally, FCC economists continued to work on issues in broadcast station ownership.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Matthew H. Collins","Stacy Jordan","Wayne A. Leighton","Kim Makuch","Catherine Matraves","Daniel R. Shiman","Martha Stancill","Sean D. Sullivan","Patrick Sun"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09933-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-91a6520de5fb912d","title":"On the welfare impact of mergers of complements: Raising rivals’ costs versus elimination of double marginalization","abstract":"A common view in antitrust analysis is that mergers of complements can have raising rivals’ costs and elimination of double marginalization effects, with the net effect on consumer welfare thus unclear. We revise this view in the context of a merger between a monopolist in one market and a duopoly producer of a complement good. With linear demand and imperfect substitutability, while such a merger increases the price of the monopolized component, elimination of double marginalization dominates any raising rivals’ costs effects, increasing consumer welfare. We discuss a variety of extensions.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["U. Akgun","Cristina Caffarra","Federico Etro","Robert S. Stillman"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109429","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-91bdd550a4fc0c08","title":"Nonlinear pricing in multidimensional context: An empirical analysis of energy consumption","abstract":"Modern business practices frequently employ a blend of pricing strategies to segment markets effectively. As a result, consumers may encounter pricing schedules that are nonlinear and multidimensional. This paper presents a structural approach for estimating multidimensional nonlinear pricing models involving multiple decision variables in an energy market. Using a unique, rich panel dataset of Chinese household electricity consumption, we structurally estimate consumer preferences under the influence of an Increasing Block Price (IBP) and a Time-of-Use (ToU) system. Our structural approach allows us to distinguish and evaluate household-level price elasticities of demand, presenting a novel explanation for consumers' feedback on marginal price changes. Through model-based simulations, we demonstrate that a 1% increase in price corresponds to a 0.7% reduction in total electricity demand. However, our analysis indicates that practical opportunities for optimization within multi-dimensional pricing systems are limited. Our findings offer distinct insights into the complex interplay between intricate pricing structures and energy consumption behavior, thereby providing valuable guidance for policymakers and regulators.","wordCount":162,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Xintong Han","Zimin Liu","Tong Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.103034","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-91bff3e4ee45b96a","title":"Monetary regimes and regional economies: A counterfactual perspective from two euro opt-outs","abstract":"This paper investigates the counterfactual impact of an alternative monetary regime on regional income and disparity within Denmark and Sweden—two EU countries that opted out of the euro at its introduction in 1999—using the synthetic control method. Our findings reveal that counterfactual income trajectories would have been highly heterogeneous: while most Danish regions would have experienced modest losses or gains, some Swedish regions might have recorded lower income levels under the counterfactual, although the evidence is mixed and concentrated in a small number of non-capital regions. We further analyze these outcomes in light of standard theories of monetary unions, finding that regions more open to trade and with greater capital intensity would have been more likely to benefit. Finally, we assess the implications for regional inequality, showing that the current monetary regime was associated with reduced regional income disparities in Denmark and produced mixed effects in Sweden.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Sang‐Wook Cho","Sally C. Y. Wong"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103700","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-91c078f3dd67fc66","title":"Volatility and informativeness","abstract":"This paper studies the relation between volatility and informativeness in financial markets. We identify two channels (noise-reduction and equilibrium-learning) that determine the volatility-informativeness relation. When informativeness is sufficiently high (low), volatility and informativeness positively (negatively) comove in equilibrium. We identify conditions on primitives that guarantee that volatility and informativeness comove positively or negatively. We introduce the comovement score, a statistic that measures the distance of a given asset to the positive/negative comovement regions. Empirically, comovement scores (i) have trended downwards over the last decades, (ii) are positively related to value and idiosyncratic volatility and negatively to size and institutional ownership.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Eduardo Dávila","Cecilia Parlatore"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.12.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-91c31f526b8246e9","title":"Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area","abstract":"We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle‐dependent relation between output, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem, 1997). The theoretical model motivates our empirical assessment, based on a regime‐switching Phillips curve and a regime‐switching monetary structural VAR, employing different filter‐based, semi‐structural model‐based and Bayesian factor model‐implied output gaps. The analysis confirms the presence of a convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the output gap recurringly increases during times of expansion and abates during recessions. Sign‐restricted monetary policy shocks based on a regime‐switching monetary SVAR reveal that expansionary monetary policy induces less pressure on inflation at times of weak as opposed to strong growth; thereby rationalizing relatively stronger expansionary policy, including unconventional volume‐based policy, during times of deep recession. A further augmented model shows that an effective euro exchange rate shock, too, implies business cycle state‐dependent responses, with more upward pressure on prices arising from unexpected currency depreciation at times of expansion than during recession phases.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Marco Gross","Willi Semmler"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12291","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-91d3f044b0c8a31f","title":"Police Presence, Rapid Response Rates, and Crime Prevention","abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of police presence on crime using a unique database that tracks the exact location of Dallas Police Department patrol cars throughout 2009. To address the concern that officer location is often driven by crime, my instrument exploits police responses to calls outside their allocated coverage beat. This variable provides a plausible shift in police presence within the abandoned beat that is driven by the police goal of minimizing response times. I find that a 10% decrease in police presence at that location results in a 7% increase in crime. This result sheds light on the black box of policing and crime and suggests that routine changes in police patrol can have a significant impact on criminal behavior.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sarit Weisburd"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00889","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-91e38b474c72db95","title":"Historical Lynchings and the Contemporary Voting Behavior of Blacks","abstract":"This paper analyzes the extent to which the political participation of Blacks can be traced to historical lynchings that took place from 1882 to 1930. Using county-level voter registration data, I show that Blacks who reside in southern counties that experienced a relatively higher number of historical lynchings have lower voter registration rates today. This relationship holds after accounting for a variety of historical and contemporary characteristics of counties. There exists evidence of the persistence of cultural voting norms among Blacks, yet this relationship does not exist for Whites.","wordCount":89,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jhacova Williams"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190549","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-92018caeb763b8ea","title":"Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation","abstract":"We quantify the impact of bank market power on monetary policy transmission through banks to borrowers. We estimate a dynamic banking model in which monetary policy affects imperfectly competitive banks' funding costs. Banks optimize the pass‐through of these costs to borrowers and depositors, while facing capital and reserve regulation. We find that bank market power explains much of the transmission of monetary policy to borrowers, with an effect comparable to that of bank capital regulation. When the federal funds rate falls below 0.9%, market power interacts with bank capital regulation to produce a reversal of the effect of monetary policy.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["YIFEI WANG","Toni M. Whited","Yufeng Wu","Kairong Xiao"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13159","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9206b00143404515","title":"Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and US Immigration","abstract":"How readily do potential migrants respond to increased returns to migration? Even if origin areas become less attractive vis-à-vis migration destinations, fixed costs can prevent increased migration. We examine migration responses to hurricanes, which reduce the attractiveness of origin locations. Restricted-access U.S. Census data allows precise migration measures and analysis of more migrant-origin countries. Hurricanes increase U.S. immigration, with the effect increasing in the size of prior migrant stocks. Large migrant networks reduce fixed costs by facilitating legal immigration from hurricane-affected source countries. Hurricane-induced immigration can be fully accounted for by new legal permanent residents (\"green card\" holders).","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Parag Mahajan","Dean Yang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180438","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-920db5a0475a79ff","title":"Economic Growth in Germany, 1500–1850","abstract":"New data are used to construct a time series of real GDP in Germany for the period 1500–1850 using an indirect output estimation technique that relies on wages, prices, and sectoral employment. Until the mid-seventeenth century, real GDP per capita moved inversely with population. The eighteenth century saw a modest rise in output per head. From the late 1810s, economic growth gradually accelerated. The results shed new light on the reversal of fortunes in early modern Europe and the transition from a Malthusian regime to modern economic growth.","wordCount":88,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Ulrich Pfister"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002205072200033x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-921070f3b47eb55a","title":"On the stability of risk and time preferences amid the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"We elicited incentivized measures of risk and time preferences from a sample of undergraduate students in Athens, Greece, in waves that preceded and overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic. We exploited the timing of several events that occurred in the course of the pandemic (e.g., first occurrence of cases and deaths, curfew, relaxation of curfew etc.) and estimated structural parameters for various theories of risk and time preferences comparing these with pre-pandemic estimates. We find no effect between the different waves or other key events of the pandemic, despite the fact that we have about 1000 responses across all waves. Overall, our subjects exhibit intertemporal stability of risk and time preferences despite the significant effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health and the global economy. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10683-021-09727-6.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Andreas C. Drichoutis","Rodolfo M. Nayga"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09727-6","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-921173a7b176ca2d","title":"Sieve IV estimation of cross-sectional interaction models with nonparametric endogenous effect","abstract":"In this study, we consider cross-sectional interaction models including spatial autoregressive models and peer effects models as special cases. Our model allows the endogenous effect – the effect of others’ outcomes on one’s own outcome – to be nonlinear and nonparametric. For the model estimation, we propose a sieve instrumental variable estimator and establish both its consistency and asymptotic normality. Furthermore, we propose a nonparametric specification test for the linearity of the endogenous effect. Under the null hypothesis of linearity, we show that the test statistic is asymptotically distributed as normal. As an empirical illustration, we focus on the data on regional economic performance investigated by Gennaioli et al. (2013). This empirical analysis highlights the usefulness of the proposed model and method.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Tadao Hoshino"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.11.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-92136878ee457027","title":"Industry Wages Across Countries and Over Time: A New Database of Micro Survey Data","abstract":"This paper presents a newly collected database on industry wages. The underlying data are micro datasets collected through nationally representative household surveys which are mostly conducted by national statistical agencies. In comparison with wage measures based on macroeconomic data sources, we find that industry wages based on micro survey data are more reliable. Furthermore, data from nationally representative micro surveys are becoming increasingly available, thus allowing for better coverage, especially of low‐income countries. The database provides a reliable source of data for research on inter‐industry wage structures and gender wage differentials, across countries and over time. It may also serve as a basis for further research on the determinants and implications of inter‐industry and gender wage variations.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Van Ha Le","Jakob de Haan","Erik Dietzenbacher"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12264","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9214d9c72fa67409","title":"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?","abstract":"Cities across the U.S. have turned to summer youth employment programs (SYEPs) to improve the behavioral, economic, and academic outcomes of inner‐city youth. This paper evaluates the impact of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program using both experimental and non‐experimental variation. Similar to previous studies of summer jobs programs in other cities, I make use of an embedded randomized controlled trial and find that the program reduces violent crime by 35 percent, as measured by the number of arraignments from administrative records during the 17 months after participation. In contrast to prior work, I also find a similar reduction in arraignments for property crimes (−29 percent). This study also provides exploratory evidence on the mechanisms driving these reductions in crime using self‐reported responses of participants from a pre‐/post‐program survey. The results provide suggestive evidence that the beneficial impacts on violent and property crime are largely driven by improved conflict resolution skills versus other factors that would increase the opportunity cost of crime. These findings give researchers some insights into the behavioral changes that occur during the program while also providing a look inside the “black box” as to how SYEPs affect youth outcomes in the long run.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Alicia Modestino"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22138","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9224c4045f857324","title":"Has international CPI inflation comovement strengthened since the global financial crisis?","abstract":"This study detects a structural break in international consumer price index (CPI) inflation comovement. We estimate the dynamic common factor models with unknown breakpoints of cross-country inflation rates and global price index of all commodities. We identify two global factors from the models: a commodity global factor and a noncommodity global factor. The former is a common factor between national inflation rates and commodity price index growth; the latter is a common factor among national inflation rates. The estimation of 29 countries’ quarterly CPI inflation data from 2001:Q1 to 2018:Q2 shows a one-time break in cross-country inflation dynamics in 2008:Q4. Thereafter, the importance of global factors in explaining the national inflation rates is remarkably increased. Furthermore, the increased global inflation synchronization is mainly driven by the larger role of the noncommodity global factor rather than that of the commodity global factor.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Inseok Shin","Kyu Ho Kang"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100521000316","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9228ff37d901b239","title":"Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence","abstract":"Motivated by existing evidence of the salience theory (ST) effect in the United States, we investigate its importance in 49 countries over the past three decades. Initial results suggest a negative relationship between the ST measure and future returns. The underperformance of low ST stocks is the strongest in countries with high idiosyncratic risk. However, the salience effect has three vital limitations. First, a substantial part of the anomaly can be attributed to the short-term return reversal. Second, it is priced primarily among microcaps. Third, the premium is realized predominantly following severe down markets and volatility spikes. Outside of microcaps and extreme market conditions, the salience effect does not exist.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Nusret Cakici","Adam Zaremba"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-92320cb776df4814","title":"Finance and Growth at the Firm Level: Evidence from SBA Loans","abstract":"We analyze linked databases on all SBA loans and lenders and on all U.S. employers to estimate the effects of financial access on employment growth. Estimation exploits the long panels and variation in local availability of SBA‐intensive lenders. The results imply an increase of 3–3.5 jobs for each million dollars of loans, suggesting real effects of credit constraints. Estimated impacts are stronger for younger and larger firms and when local credit conditions are weak, but we find no clear evidence of cyclical variation. We estimate taxpayer costs per job created in the range of $21,000–$25,000.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Jason Brown","John S. Earle"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12492","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-923fb50597f2dca2","title":"Rethinking age heaping again for understanding its possibilities and limitations","abstract":"A'Hearn, Delfino, and Nuvolari recently argued in this journal that the indicator function of age heaping for education, and numeracy in particular, is quite limited. In contrast, we show empirically that by applying the methodological elements that were developed over the past decade, age‐heaping‐based numeracy research can be an important tool for economic history.","wordCount":54,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Jöerg Baten","Giacomo Benati","Sarah Ferber"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13139","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-926e6eaadd521941","title":"Local supply, temporal dynamics, and unrealized potential in teacher hiring","abstract":"We explore the dynamics of competitive search in the K–12 public education sector. Using detailed panel data on teacher hiring from Boston Public Schools, we document how teacher labor supply varies substantially across vacancies even within a single district depending on position type, school characteristics, and the timing of job postings. We find that early‐posted positions are more likely to be filled and end up securing new hires that are better qualified, more effective, and more likely to remain at a school. In contrast, the number of applicants to a position is largely unassociated with hire quality, suggesting that schools may struggle to identify and select the best candidates even when there is a large pool of qualified applicants. These patterns persist even when we restrict comparisons to only positions within an individual school using school fixed effects. Our findings point to substantial unrealized potential for improving teacher hiring.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jessalynn James","Matthew A. Kraft","John P. Papay"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22496","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9278ace15bd58cb8","title":"Digital economy and economic competitive pressure on local governments: Evidence from China","abstract":"For decades, fiscal decentralization and gross domestic product growth targeting have resulted in fierce economic competition among local governments in China, putting tremendous economic competitive pressure on them. The latter has serious social and economic implications and is a major issue for policymakers. This study analyzes data from China's 30 provinces for 2011–2021. It demonstrates that digital economic development could considerably reduce economic, competitive pressure on local governments, with trade openness and entrepreneurial dynamism serving as impact mechanisms. This study also found that the alleviating effects are more pronounced in regions with a poor innovation environment, a less developed economy, or lagging human resources. These findings emphasize the important role of the digital economy in increasing regional competitiveness and reducing regional disparities.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Yongming Miao","Yaokuang Li","Yanrui Wu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106859","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-92905d9cd29ec87e","title":"Mental Health and Employment: A Bounding Approach Using Panel Data","abstract":"The effect of mental health on employment is a key policy question, but reliable causal estimates are elusive. Exploiting panel data and extending recent techniques using selection on observables to provide information on selection along unobservables, we estimate that transitioning into poor mental health leads to a 1.6% point reduction in the probability of employment; approximately 10% of the raw employment gap. Selection into mental health is almost entirely based on time‐invariant characteristics, rendering fixed effects estimates unbiased in this context, meaning researchers no longer have to rely on the narrow local average treatment effects of most health/work IV studies.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Mark L. Bryan","Nigel Rice","Jennifer Roberts","Cristina Sechel"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12489","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9291571d9fa4920f","title":"Securities auctions with pre-project information management","abstract":"Debt auction is optimal when bidders are protected by limited liability. This paper analyzes securities auctions in which bidders have an option to acquire information after winning the right to develop a project. The payment consists of an up-front cash bid and a contingent security bid, which distorts investment and information acquisition relative to the first-best. We order securities in terms of their steepness: the payment of a steeper security is more sensitive to high project values. The agent’s incentives to acquire information that prevents either cost overruns (Type I errors) or false cancellations (Type II errors) decrease with the steepness of securities. The optimal limited-liability securities auction involves bidding debt that minimizes the distortions in the agent’s incentives to acquire performance-enhancing information. The model delivers implications on the practices commonly observed in oil lease auctions.","wordCount":136,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Tak-Yuen Wong","Ho‐Po Crystal Wong"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102929","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-92b7ef1521ccf11e","title":"Estimating the Associations between SNAP and Food Insecurity, Obesity, and Food Purchases with Imperfect Administrative Measures of Participation","abstract":"Administrative data are considered the “gold standard” when measuring program participation, but little evidence exists on their potential problems or implications for econometric estimates. We explore these issues using the FoodAPS, a unique data set containing two different administrative measures of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation and a survey‐based measure. We document substantial ambiguity in the two administrative measures and show that they disagree with each other almost as often as they disagree with self‐reported participation. Estimated participation and misreporting rates can be meaningfully sensitive to choices made to resolve this ambiguity and disagreement. We explore sensitivity in regression estimates of the associations between SNAP and food insecurity, obesity, and the healthy eating index. The signs are unchanged across the three measures, and the estimates are mostly not statistically different from each other. However, there are some meaningful differences in the magnitudes and levels of statistical significance of the estimates.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Charles Courtemanche","Augustine Denteh","Rusty Tchernis"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12364","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-92bb241326bb4891","title":"Dynamic agglomeration effects of foreigners and natives – The role of experience in high-quality sectors, tasks and establishments","abstract":"We analyze whether the benefits of work experience that was acquired in denser locations can be explained by the quality of jobs that can be found in agglomerations using administrative data on individual employment biographies of workers in Germany. We find that 79% of the premium for work experience gained in the densest regions can be ascribed to the sectors, tasks and establishments in which experience was acquired. Moreover, we find that foreign and native workers, on average, benefit to a similar extent from dynamic agglomeration effects. However, low-skilled foreign workers receive a lower return to experience gained in dense regions than observationally identical natives. This difference can be explained by the fact that the former gain work experience in lower-quality jobs.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Annekatrin Niebuhr","Jan Peters","Duncan Roth"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104040","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-92c57d3473935e2f","title":"Artificial intelligence and human jobs","abstract":"The development of artificial intelligence (AI) does influence human jobs but not necessarily in a negative way. Although labor force participation rates and firms’ job vacancies for human labor decline, the unemployment rate may be lower than that in an economy without AI. In an economy with heterogeneously skilled workers, the invention of AI usually has a negative effect on the skilled labor market but a positive effect on the unskilled labor market. The overall unemployment rate may decline as AI develops.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Chia‐Hui Lu"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000528","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-92d0eb915d3ac04c","title":"The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions","abstract":"We use an event study approach to examine the economic consequences of hospital admissions for adults in two datasets: survey data from the Health and Retirement Study, and hospitalization data linked to credit reports. For non-elderly adults with health insurance, hospital admissions increase out-of-pocket medical spending, unpaid medical bills, and bankruptcy, and reduce earnings, income, access to credit, and consumer borrowing. The earnings decline is substantial compared to the out-of-pocket spending increase, and is minimally insured prior to age-eligibility for Social Security Retirement Income. Relative to the insured non-elderly, the uninsured non-elderly experience much larger increases in unpaid medical bills and bankruptcy rates following a hospital admission. Hospital admissions trigger fewer than 5 percent of all bankruptcies in our sample.","wordCount":120,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Carlos Dobkin","Amy Finkelstein","Raymond Kluender","Matthew Notowidigdo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161038","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-92e5514766bbe9db","title":"The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy","abstract":"The outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 was largely unanticipated. Even after the “Leave” vote, surprises regarding the withdrawal process affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of political events published by the House of Commons Library and daily data on asset prices and economic policy uncertainty to construct a novel instrument for Brexit surprises. Including a monthly aggregate of this instrument into a vector-autoregressive model of the UK economy, an adverse Brexit surprise lowers GDP growth while raising CPI inflation. We provide evidence that the Bank of England fended off a worse economic contraction.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Martin Geiger","Jochen Güntner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-930156b99e055b10","title":"Corruption in Russia","abstract":"We analyze the determinants of corruption in Russia using law enforcement data on corruption incidents for a panel of 79 Russian regions for the period 2004–13. We find that the relative salaries of bureaucrats determine corruption levels: corruption declines as relative salaries rise, yet at strongly diminishing rates. Furthermore, we show that even very limited media freedom helps to curtail corruption. Other important determinants are the strength of law enforcement, education levels, and unemployment rates.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Günther G. Schulze","Bambang Suharnoko Sjahrir","Nikita Zakharov"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684844","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-93069d149363836c","title":"Variation in center quality in a universal publicly subsidized and regulated childcare system","abstract":"A large literature suggests that high quality childcare programs can produce positive and lasting effects by promoting math, language and social-emotional skills, referred to as school readiness skills, especially for children of parents with low education. Hence, a universal childcare system with easy access has the potential to make a substantial difference in children's lives and reduce socio-economic disparities in educational outcomes. However, if childcare quality varies across centers, universal childcare systems can also potentially increase disparities in school readiness if the children of more highly-educated parents select into centers of higher quality. Using a unique dataset with one-to-one assessments of school readiness skills among 627 five-year-olds attending 67 different childcare centers, we investigate differences in childcare quality by testing whether covariate adjusted assessments scores are clustered by center. Through fixed effect and random effect analyses, we demonstrate significant variation in school readiness across centers. However, selection into centers of different quality appears to be limited.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Mari Rege","Ingeborg Foldøy Solli","Ingunn Størksen","Mark Votruba"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2018.10.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9316076a391ceaec","title":"The long-term effects of early-life pollution exposure: Evidence from the London smog","abstract":"This paper uses a large UK cohort to investigate the impact of early-life pollution exposure on individuals' human capital and health outcomes in older age. We compare individuals who were exposed to the London smog in December 1952 whilst in utero or in infancy to those born after the smog and those born at the same time but in unaffected areas. We find that those exposed to the smog have substantially lower fluid intelligence and worse respiratory health, with some evidence of a reduction in years of schooling.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Stephanie von Hinke","Emil N. Sørensen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102827","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-93192bc6318f4c37","title":"A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets","abstract":"This paper studies the dynamic interaction between the net positions of traders and risk premiums in commodity futures markets. Short‐term position changes are driven mainly by the liquidity demands of noncommercial traders, while long‐term variation is driven primarily by the hedging demands of commercial traders. These two components influence expected futures returns with opposite signs. The gains from providing liquidity by commercials largely offset the premium they pay for obtaining price insurance.","wordCount":72,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Wenjin Kang","K. Geert Rouwenhorst","Ke Tang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12845","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-931972744e6b045f","title":"Life after debt: Postgraduation consequences of federal student loans","abstract":"We estimate the causal effect of student loans on postgraduation labor market outcomes exploiting a kink in the formula determining eligibility for need‐based student loans. Using a representative sample of students graduating with a bachelor's degree in 1993, we find that student debt has nonnegative effects on earnings. This result holds with differing levels of statistical significance across a battery of different empirical designs: (1) ordinary least squares, (2) partially linear, and (3) regression kink. We find similar results for the 2008 graduating cohort.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Martin Gervais","Nicolas L. Ziebarth"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12763","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9327d3484dff099e","title":"Rational heuristics? Expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents","abstract":"We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent‐based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information, coordination hurdles, and structural breaks. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second‐best option but rather “rational” responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Giovanni Dosi","Mauro Napoletano","Andrea Roventini","Joseph E. Stiglitz","Tania Treibich"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12897","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9365fa63b8feb042","title":"Empowering energy transition: Green innovation, digital finance, and the path to sustainable prosperity through green finance initiatives","abstract":"This study delves into the intricate relationship between financial digitization and green innovation, aiming to shed light on their dynamic interplay within a global context. Spanning from 2003 to 2020, the study encompasses 15 diverse countries, encompassing both developed and emerging economies, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russian Federation, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the USA. It not only explores the direct connection between financial digitization and green innovation but also takes into account various controlling factors such as economic growth, industrial value addition, research and development expenditure, and gross national expenditure. The key findings from quantile regression reveal financial digitization have a significant positive effect, indicating that in countries with lower green innovation levels, an increase in digital financial services significantly boosts green innovation. This positive impact persists across quantiles, even in countries with higher green innovation levels, albeit to a lesser degree. Economic growth consistently shows a negative association with green innovation across all quantiles. Research and development expenditure consistently demonstrate a positive relationship with green innovation across all quantiles, emphasizing that countries allocating a higher percentage of their economic growth to research and development expenditure activities experience substantial increases in green innovation. This underscores that countries allocating a higher percentage of their economic growth to research and development expenditure activities experience substantial increases not only in green innovation but also in the facilitation of green finance initiatives.","wordCount":238,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Mohammad Razib Hossain","Amar Rao","Gagan Deep Sharma","Dhairya Dev","Aeshna Kharbanda"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107736","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-93696e207edbc639","title":"Identifying the Dynamic Effects of Income Inequality on Crime","abstract":"What happens to crime after an increase in income inequality? The microeconomics literature that attempts to answer this question often employs identification strategies that exploit external sources of variation that provide quasi‐experiments to identify causal effects. In contrast, this paper tackles this question by using structural vector autoregressions (SVAR), a methodology typically employed in modern empirical macroeconomics to identify and estimate dynamic causal effects of exogenous shocks. Unlike the macroeconomic SVAR models that are often applied to time‐series data, we exploit the time series and cross‐sectional dimensions of our data, leading to the estimation of panel SVAR models. Using U.S. state‐level data for the period 1960–2015, our results indicate that structural shocks to inequality increase both violent and property crime. Variance decomposition analyses show that inequality has little explanatory power for movements in crime.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Bebonchu Atems"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12359","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-937418be98386d20","title":"Inequality in turbulent times: income distribution in Germany and Britain, 1900–50","abstract":"Using social tables, this article provides new data on inequality in Germany and Britain on an annual basis for the first half of the twentieth century. Inequality trends in these two countries tended to follow opposite patterns. The decline in inequality in Germany was interrupted during the First World War and the Nazi period, while in Britain the reversal took place between the end of the First World War and the Great Depression. Results show that the drop in inequality during the twentieth century in Europe did not follow secular trends, thus supporting the notion of inequality cycles.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["María Gómez León","Herman de Jong"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12770","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9397a13dea90f121","title":"Do uncertainties affect clean energy markets? Comparisons from a multi-frequency and multi-quantile framework","abstract":"Clean energy market has great potential to promote the balance between economic development and environmental protection, and has gradually become one of the vital energy markets. This paper investigates the real effects of external uncertainties from oil price shocks (supply, demand, and risk shocks) and political factors on the clean energy market based on a multi-frequency and multi-quantile framework. The empirical results show that both oil price shocks significantly impact the clean energy market, especially the oil demand shock. Two political factors, economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, also have a one-way influence on the clean energy market. Additionally, the impact of most external uncertainties on the clean energy market is more prominent in the long term than in the short and medium term. Finally, the clean energy market with different market conditions also has different abilities to resist external uncertainties. Our research analyses all the joint distributions between each external uncertainty and the clean energy index in identical time frames. It is helpful for investors to construct more rational investment strategies and for policymakers to make appropriate policy arrangements.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Yiying Li","Cheng Yan","Xiaohang Ren"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106679","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-93a6117c32b0f7db","title":"The human capital and economic growth nexus: in East and South Asia","abstract":"This study adopts a disaggregated regional focus to test for the human capital (HC)-growth nexus in selected nine Asian countries. It utilizes the Empirical Bayesian methodology which addresses not only the heterogeneity issue but it also utilizes the common structural priors of regional countries to yield ‘informationally’ efficient estimates of the impact of HC on the stock and levels of GDP. Various measures of HC are utilized to determine which of these produces a better explanation of economic growth in the two Asian regions. The study finds that primary and secondary education was more prominent in explaining the fluctuations of economic growth in East Asia, whereas tertiary and vocational education showed positive effects on economic growth in South Asia. Government expenditures on education were also found to positively affect economic growth in both regions. The results shed new evidence to establish that the differences in growth rates within East and South Asia are associated with differences in educational progression in the regions.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Anjum Siddiqui","Atiq Ur Rehman"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1245841","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-93b22d7de3e46e6d","title":"The Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)","abstract":"What was once broadly viewed as an impossibility—learning from experimental data in economics—has now become commonplace. Governmental bodies, think tanks, and corporations around the world employ teams of experimental researchers to answer their most pressing questions. For their part, in the past two decades academics have begun to more actively partner with organizations to generate data via field experimentation. Although this revolution in evidence‐based approaches has served to deepen the economic science, recently a credibility crisis has caused even the most ardent experimental proponents to pause. This study takes a step back from the burgeoning experimental literature and introduces 12 actions that might help to alleviate this credibility crisis and raise experimental economics to an even higher level. In this way, we view our “12 action wish list” as discussion points to enrich the field.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Eszter Czibor","David Jimenez‐Gomez","John A. List"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12392","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-93b7006b7e85f3cd","title":"Property Rights and Urban Form","abstract":"How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights, including those of possession and transfer, influence the shape of cities? This paper incorporates insecure property rights into a standard model of urban land prices and density and makes predictions about investment in land and property, informality, and the efficiency of land use. Our empirical analysis links data on institutions for land titling and transfer with multiple urban outcomes in 190 countries. The evidence is generally consistent with the model’s predictions and more broadly with Harold Demsetz’s approach to property rights institutions in “Towards a Theory of Property Rights.” Indeed, we document worldwide improvements in the quality of institutions facilitating property transfer over time.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Simeon Djankov","Edward L. Glaeser","Valeria Perotti","Andrei Shleifer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718854","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-93b77484e2696847","title":"Politically connected cities: Italy 1951–1991","abstract":"This paper documents the higher growth experienced by politically connected municipalities in Italy between the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall. It leverages the peculiarities of the institutional setting and compares population growth in connected and unconnected municipalities with similar characteristics at the beginning of the period. Our results indicate a population premium of 7.4% over 40 years. Connected municipalities benefited from the location of state-owned enterprises, more infrastructures and higher public spending. Political connections favored industrialization, higher employment and wages, but crowded out private entrepreneurship. Local communities repaid these benefits through voting. There is no evidence of higher agglomeration economies in politically connected cities, suggesting that political connections have not been output-enhancing from a nationwide perspective. The difference in population growth rates fades away after the end of the connections.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Guglielmo Barone","Guido de Blasio","Elena Gentili"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103733","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-93be5d45166aa333","title":"Political polarization in financial news","abstract":"Comparing coverage of the same corporate financial news by the conservative Wall Street Journal and the liberal New York Times , we find strong evidence of political polarization in their reporting on both the intensive and extensive margins of coverage. We show that this politics-induced disagreement in corporate financial news leads to an increase in abnormal trading volume for the most politically extreme firms. Our results highlight a new source of investor disagreement, arising out of polarized reporting of corporate financial news, that generates trade among investors.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Eitan Goldman","Nandini Gupta","Ryan D. Israelsen"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103816","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-93c439e05e577e8b","title":"Strategically delusional","abstract":"We aim to test the hypothesis that overconfidence arises as a strategy to influence others in social interactions. To address this question, we design an experiment in which participants are incentivized either to form accurate beliefs about their performance at a test, or to convince a group of other participants that they performed well. We also vary participants’ ability to gather information about their performance. Our results show that participants are more likely to (1) overestimate their performance when they anticipate that they will try to persuade others and (2) bias their information search in a manner conducive to receiving more positive feedback, when given the chance to do so. In addition, we also find suggestive evidence that this increase in confidence has a positive effect on participants’ persuasiveness.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Alice Soldà","Changxia Ke","Lionel Page","William von Hippel"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09636-9","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-93c95c69b4965e85","title":"Blockchain without Waste: Proof-of-Stake","abstract":"Permissionless blockchains require a protocol to generate consensus. Many prominent permissionless blockchains employ Proof-of-Work (PoW) for that purpose, but PoW possesses significant shortcomings. Various alternatives have been proposed. This paper provides the first formal economic model of the most famous alternative, Proof-of-Stake (PoS), and establishes conditions under which PoS generates consensus. A sufficiently modest reward schedule not only implies the existence of an equilibrium in which consensus obtains as soon as possible but also precludes a persistent forking equilibrium. The latter result arises because PoS, unlike PoW, requires that validators are also stakeholders.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Fahad Saleh"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa075","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-93ca35c3e1c4f3f9","title":"Reaching for the star ratings: A Bayesian-inspired account of how people use consumer ratings","abstract":"Online consumer ratings provide information about the average evaluation but also about the number of people who provided a rating (i.e., the sample size) and thus the rating's reliability. Using aggregated data, previous research has provided mixed results with regards to whether people pay attention to the sample size of statistical information. In our experiment, people choose between two competing hotels based on previous visitors' ratings. For each individual participant, we quantitatively estimated different strategies of how sample size and average ratings are processed. Results indicate substantial individual differences and show that people higher in statistical numeracy were better described by the Bayesian model. In addition, Bayesian strategies were used more when cues were incongruent (higher average rating has lower sample size) compared to when they were congruent. To account for these findings, we developed a Bayesian decision tree that describes in which situations behavior accords to Bayesian principles. Moving away from the debate about whether people are Bayesian or not, we explain who integrates sample size and average rating in a Bayesian way in which situation.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Janine Christin Hoffart","Sebastian Olschewski","Jörg Rieskamp"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.02.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-93ce6719b934675b","title":"Enhancing betting against beta with stochastic dominance","abstract":"The performance of the widely used betting-against-beta (BAB) investment strategy is improved by controlling for the stochastic dominance (SD) relation between individual stocks and the market portfolio. Dominating stocks, preferred by all risk-averse and prudent investors, are excluded from the short leg of the BAB strategy. Stocks that are dominated by the market are excluded from the long leg of the strategy. This prefiltering significantly enhances a wide range of performance and risk measures including abnormal returns relative to various factor models. The improvements are especially pronounced for the third-order SD, are robust to transaction costs and different market conditions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Olga Kolokolova","Xia Xu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101465","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-93d111e619b71215","title":"Credit Market Disruptions and Liquidity Spillover Effects in the Supply Chain","abstract":"How do shocks to the banking sector travel through the corporate economy? Using a novel data set of interfirm sales, I show that suppliers exposed to a large and exogenous decline in bank financing pass this liquidity shock to their downstream customers. The spillover effect occurs through two channels: a reduction in trade credit offered and a reduction in the total supply of goods and services. After exposure to the spillover, downstream customers show a spike in credit risk and a reduction in employment. Overall, the paper highlights the importance of financial spillovers in explaining corporate sector outcomes.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Anna M. Costello"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/708736","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-93e0e04c2de67282","title":"Tiny trades, big questions: Fractional shares","abstract":"This paper investigates fractional share trading. We develop a latency-based method for identifying a large sample of fractional share trades. We find that high-priced stocks, meme stocks, IPOs, SPACs, and popular retail stocks exhibit considerable numbers of these tiny trades. We surmise that this reflects dollar-based order entry, with many tiny trades being fractional components of larger orders. We show that our fractional trade measure is predictive of future liquidity and volatility, suggesting a new metric to capture the information in retail trades. We identify how data and reporting protocols preclude knowing the extent of fractional share trading, inflate volume data, and provide censured samples of these off-exchange trades.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Robert P. Bartlett","Justin McCrary","Maureen O’Hara"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103836","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-93ed576dbe4058de","title":"Maternal education and child health: Causal evidence from Denmark","abstract":"This study examines how maternal education shapes the life and health of their children. Causal effects are identified from a Danish school reform that increased minimum compulsory schooling from 7 to 9 years in 1972 and estimates are based on large administrative registers. We find that the reform as well as maternal education when instrumented by it, has significant, positive effects on mothers' age at first birth and maternal health. Nevertheless, maternal education has no systematic causal effects on child health, neither at birth, during childhood, or in adolescence. This null finding is robust to a wide range of model specifications.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jacob Nielsen Arendt","Mads Lybech Christensen","Anders Hjorth‐Trolle"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102552","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-93fa076f2f2a2e89","title":"Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis","abstract":"In this article, we examine the long-run relationship between religiosity and income using retrospective data on church attendance rates for a panel of countries from 1930 to 1990. We employ panel cointegration and causality techniques to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias and test for the direction of causality. We show that there exists a negative long-run relationship between the level of religiosity, measured by church attendance, and the level of income, measured by the log of GDP per capita. The result is robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, different samples, different measures of church attendance and alternative specifications of the income variable. Long-run causality runs in both directions, higher income leads to declining religiosity and declining religiosity leads to higher income.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Dierk Herzer","Holger Strulik"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251562","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-940012a93e663e89","title":"The Firm Size Distribution across Countries and Skill-Biased Change in Entrepreneurial Technology","abstract":"Development is associated with systematic changes in the firm size distribution. I document that the mean and dispersion of firm size are larger in rich countries, and increased over time for US firms. To analyze the firm size-development link, I construct a frictionless general equilibrium model of occupational choice with skill-biased change in entrepreneurial technology (i.e., technical progress favors better entrepreneurs). The model accounts for key aspects of the US experience with only changes in aggregate technology. It attributes half the variation in mean and dispersion of firm size across countries to technical change. Distortions also affect the size distribution.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Markus Poschke"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140181","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-94002c96d4712e58","title":"Effect of Income on Trust: Evidence from the 2009 Economic Crisis in Russia","abstract":"This article draws on a natural experiment to identify the relationship between income and trust. We use a unique panel data set on Russia where GDP experienced an 8% drop in 2009. The effect of the crisis had been uneven among Russian regions because of their differences in industrial structure inherited from the Soviet period. After instrumenting average regional income by Soviet industrial structure, we find that 10% decrease in income is associated with a five percentage point decrease in social trust. We also find that post-crisis economic recovery did not fully restore pre-crisis trust level.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Maxim Ananyev","Sergei Guriev"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12612","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-940486bca486352e","title":"Parenting With Style: Altruism and Paternalism in Intergenerational Preference Transmission","abstract":"We develop a theory of intergenerational transmission of preferences that rationalizes the choice between alternative parenting styles (as set out in Baumrind1967). ParentsmaximizeanobjectivefunctionthatcombinesBeckerian altruism and paternalism towards children. They can affect their children’s choices via two channels: either by influencing children’s preferences or by imposing direct restrictions on their choice sets. Different parenting styles (authoritarian, authoritative, and permissive) emerge as equilibrium outcomes, and are affected both by parental preferences and by the socioeconomic environment. Parenting style, in turn, feeds back into the children’s welfare and economic success. The theory is consistent with the decline of authoritarian parenting observed in industrialized countries, and with the greater prevalence of more permissive parenting in countries characterized by low inequality.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Matthias Doepke","Fabrizio Zilibotti"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14634","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-940dcadb98b6db78","title":"The Anticompetitiveness of a Private Information Exchange of Prices","abstract":"Conditions relevant to determining when such an information exchange is anticompetitive are identified. Competitors privately sharing price intentions is universally prohibited under antitrust/competition law. In contrast, there is no common well-accepted treatment of competitors privately sharing prices . This paper is the first to show that a private exchange of prices can result in higher prices for consumers. Conditions relevant to determining when such an information exchange is anticompetitive are identified.","wordCount":71,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Joseph E. Harrington"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102793","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9419ee64431d116c","title":"Convergence and determinants of young people not in employment, education or training: An European regional analysis","abstract":"In this paper, we study the convergence in the rates of young people Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) across the 274 European regions from 2000 to 2019. First, we apply the club convergence methodology and identify the presence of four important clusters with different trends in NEET rates. The estimated clusters consist of sub-national regions in quite distinct parts of Europe. Then, a spatio-temporal econometric model is used to confirm the presence of a reduction in the disparities (β–convergence) of these rates across the European regions. We identify the main drivers in each cluster and calculate the long-run NEET rates. The unemployment rate and the percentage of early leavers from education and training are the main drivers of NEET rates in all clusters.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Laia Maynou","Javier Ordóñez","José I. Silva"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105808","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-94339d68e8f9b558","title":"Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\" altimg=\"si133.gif\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math>, <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\" altimg=\"si134.gif\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math>","abstract":"We derive fixed effects estimators of parameters and average partial effects in (possibly dynamic) nonlinear panel data models with individual and time effects. They cover logit, probit, ordered probit, Poisson and Tobit models that are important for many empirical applications in micro and macroeconomics. Our estimators use analytical and jackknife bias corrections to deal with the incidental parameter problem, and are asymptotically unbiased under asymptotic sequences where N/T converges to a constant. We develop inference methods and show that they perform well in numerical examples.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Iván Fernández‐Val","Martin Weidner"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.12.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94389947f800216c","title":"What Motivates Effort? Evidence and Expert Forecasts","abstract":"How much do different monetary and non-monetary motivators induce costly effort? Does the effectiveness line up with the expectations of researchers and with results in the literature? We conduct a large-scale real-effort experiment with eighteen treatment arms. We examine the effect of (1) standard incentives; (2) behavioural factors like social preferences and reference dependence; and (3) non-monetary inducements from psychology. We find that (1) monetary incentives work largely as expected, including a very low piece rate treatment which does not crowd out effort; (2) the evidence is partly consistent with standard behavioural models, including warm glow, though we do not find evidence of probability weighting; (3) the psychological motivators are effective, but less so than incentives. We then compare the results to forecasts by 208 academic experts. On average, the experts anticipate several key features, like the effectiveness of psychological motivators. A sizeable share of experts, however, expects crowd-out, probability weighting, and pure altruism, counterfactually. As a further comparison, we present a meta-analysis of similar treatments in the literature. Overall, predictions based on the literature are correlated with, but underperform, the expert forecasts.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Stefano DellaVigna","Devin G. Pope"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-945252cfc0cb4aaf","title":"The folk theorem for the prisoner's dilemma with endogenous private monitoring","abstract":"We study the repeated prisoner's dilemma with private monitoring under the assumption that the monitoring structure is endogenously chosen by the players in each period. We allow the players to choose from all possible monitoring structures. If the players disagree on the monitoring structure they would like, the realized monitoring structure is determined by a function that aggregates their choices. When one player can dictate the monitoring structure, then the repetition of the stage Nash is the only sequential equilibrium outcome. In contrast, when no player can dictate the monitoring structure, we provide conditions on the aggregation function under which any strictly individually rational and feasible payoff vector can be supported in sequential equilibrium.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Guilherme Carmona","Krittanai Laohakunakorn"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105731","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9458c023e04c1c9a","title":"A survey of preference estimation with unobserved choice set heterogeneity","abstract":"We provide an introduction to the estimation of discrete choice models when choice sets are heterogeneous and unobserved to the econometrician. We survey the two most popular approaches: “integrating over” and “differencing out” unobserved choice sets. Inspired by Chamberlain (1980)’s original idea of constructing sufficient statistics from observed choices, we introduce the term “sufficient set” to refer to any combination of observed choices that lies within the true but unobserved choice set. The concept of sufficient set helps to unify notation and organize our thinking, to map econometric assumptions onto economic models, and to implement both methods in practice.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Gregory S. Crawford","Rachel Griffith","Alessandro Iaria"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.024","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9461bef6ad1002e0","title":"Does the Election of a Female Leader Clear the Way for More Women in Politics?","abstract":"Women remain underrepresented in politics and it remains unclear how this might change. In this paper, we investigate whether female council candidates receive more preferential votes when a female mayor has been recently elected into office. We hand collect data for 109,017 candidates in four open-list local council elections (2001–2016) in all 426 municipalities of a German state. Based on RDD estimations for close mixed-gender races, we show that female council candidates advance more from their initial list rank when the mayor is female. This effect spreads to neighboring municipalities and leads to a rising share of female council members.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Thushyanthan Baskaran","Zohal Hessami"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9464edae6f677339","title":"Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice","abstract":"We reconcile the steep decline in fertility rates during the demographic transition with the fertility rebound observed in recent decades in high-income countries. The micro-foundations of the optimal choice of agents in our expanded model include endogenous childcare costs and social externalities stemming from human capital, consumption, and fertility norms. Combining these factors with the quality-quantity trade-off in fertility choice explains the inverse J-shaped relationship between fertility and economic development. Moreover, the simulated average fertility rates based on the model are reasonably consistent with the observed pattern of the evolution of the cohort fertility rates in high-income countries. Sensitivity analyses show that the model fits historical cohort fertility rates only when it includes the effects of social externalities and endogenous childcare costs.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Ratbek Dzhumashev","Ainura Tursunalieva"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00885-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9468f6e952d2f2ae","title":"Behind the Scenes: The Corporate Governance Preferences of Institutional Investors","abstract":"We survey institutional investors to better understand their role in the corporate governance of firms. Consistent with a number of theories, we document widespread behind‐the‐scenes intervention as well as governance‐motivated exit. These governance mechanisms are viewed as complementary devices, with intervention typically occurring prior to a potential exit. We further find that long‐term investors and investors that are less concerned about stock liquidity intervene more intensively. Finally, we find that most investors use proxy advisors and believe that the information provided by such advisors improves their own voting decisions.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Joseph A. McCahery","Zacharias Sautner","Laura T. Starks"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12393","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-946ec7e646b0c356","title":"Racial Discrimination in the Sharing Economy: Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"In an experiment on Airbnb, we find that applications from guests with distinctively African American names are 16 percent less likely to be accepted relative to identical guests with distinctively white names. Discrimination occurs among landlords of all sizes, including small landlords sharing the property and larger landlords with multiple properties. It is most pronounced among hosts who have never had an African American guest, suggesting only a subset of hosts discriminate. While rental markets have achieved significant reductions in discrimination in recent decades, our results suggest that Airbnb's current design choices facilitate discrimination and raise the possibility of erasing some of these civil rights gains.","wordCount":106,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Benjamin Edelman","Michael Luca","Dan Svirsky"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160213","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-946f16804f7c09fe","title":"Giving in the face of risk","abstract":"Decisions about how to share resources with others often need to be taken under uncertainty regarding its allocational consequences. Although risk preferences are likely important, existing research is silent about how social and risk preferences interact in such situations. In this paper we provide experimental evidence on this question. In a first experiment givers are not exposed to risk while beneficiaries’ final earnings may be larger or smaller than the allocation itself, depending on the realized state of the world. In a second experiment, risk affects the earnings of givers but not of beneficiaries. We find that individuals’ risk preferences are predictive for giving in both experiments. Increased risk exposure of beneficiaries tends to decrease giving whereas increased risk exposure of givers has no effect. We propose a simple non-linear generalization of a model allowing for other-regarding preferences, ex-post and ex-ante fairness, and risk aversion. We find some support for it in our data when risk is on the beneficiaries’ side but less so when risk is on the givers’ side. Our results point to the importance of the further development of models of social preferences that also incorporate risk preferences.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Elena Cettolin","Arno Riedl","Giang Tran"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9270-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-947eae20592374a1","title":"Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?","abstract":"We analyze lender of last resort (LOLR) lending during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set on all central bank lending and collateral, we show that weakly capitalized banks took out more LOLR loans and used riskier collateral than strongly capitalized banks. We also find that weakly capitalized banks used LOLR loans to buy risky assets such as distressed sovereign debt. This resulted in a reallocation of risky assets from strongly to weakly capitalized banks. Our findings cannot be explained by classical LOLR theory. Rather, they point to risk taking by banks, both independently and with the encouragement of governments, and highlight the benefit of unifying LOLR lending and bank supervision.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Itamar Drechsler","Thomas Drechsel","David Marqués-Ibáñez","Philipp Schnabl"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12421","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9481b3be14cb0c7f","title":"Life Satisfaction, Income Comparisons and Individual Traits","abstract":"People gain utility from occupying a higher ranked position in the income distribution of the reference group. This paper investigates whether these gains depend on an individual's set of personality and affective traits. Using the 2000 to 2013 waves of the German Socio‐economic Panel dataset (SOEP), a subjective question on Life Satisfaction, and three different measures of personal and affective traits, we find significant and robust differences across groups and conclude that traits determine the relationship between rank and life satisfaction. The heterogeneity on the importance of income comparisons is relevant, for example, when building economic models, predicting individuals' behavior, or making welfare judgments.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Santiago Budría","Ada Ferrer‐i‐Carbonell"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12353","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9484bdec01c2d3fe","title":"Child marriage and infant mortality: causal evidence from Ethiopia","abstract":"This study assesses the causal effect of child marriage on infant mortality. Using age discontinuities in exposure to a law that raised the legal age of marriage for women in Ethiopia, the study estimates that a 1-year delay in a woman’s age at cohabitation during her teenage years reduces the probability of her first-born child dying during infancy by 3.8 percentage points. This impact is closely linked to the effect of delaying cohabitation on women’s age at first birth.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Jorge García Hombrados"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00873-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-949395ff2487cf8b","title":"The economic impact of structural and Cohesion Funds across sectors: Immediate, medium-to-long term effects and spillovers","abstract":"The EU Cohesion Policy has progressively diversified the financed sectors, with possible heterogeneous impacts on local growth. However, the literature is still largely oriented to the analysis of aggregate impacts. Our study offers a granular investigation of the sectoral impacts of Structural and Cohesion Funds on European NUTS 2 over the period 2007–2014. We find that expenditures in energy, R&D, and transportation sectors stimulate higher GDP per capita growth with persistent effects, coherently with reduction of production costs, higher accessibility and innovation in recipient regions. These effects are enhanced when expenditures are more diversified across sectors. Spatial panel models show that transport sector generates the highest spillovers, leveraging on agglomeration and proximity, while at geographical level we find substantial spillovers cross-cutting national boundaries. From a policy perspective, our analysis suggests how spatial and sectoral effects can contribute to the design of a more effective allocation of the EU budget.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Francesco Scotti","Andrea Flori","Fabio Pammolli"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105833","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-94949b05ebd8ef0f","title":"Employee bargaining power, inter-firm competition, and equity-based compensation","abstract":"We develop a model to illustrate that equity-based compensation for non-executive employees and product market decisions are related. When the product market is competitive and employees have low bargaining power , the unique equilibrium is for each firm’s owners to offer equity-based compensation to their employees. In this setting, equity-based compensation leads to a lower wage rate, which makes each firm more competitive with its rival. However, this unique equilibrium is a Prisoner’s Dilemma for the firms’ original owners. Our results are consistent with several empirical regularities and provide predictions on when firms will offer equity-based compensation to their employees.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Francesco Bova","Liyan Yang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.07.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94a2d25958bc3bb4","title":"Panel data in environmental economics: Econometric issues and applications to IPAT models","abstract":"This paper addresses econometric challenges arising in panel data analyses related to IPAT (environmental Impact of Population, Affluence and Technology) models and other applications typically characterized by a large-N and large-T structure. This poses specific econometric complexities due to nonstationarity and cross-sectional error correlation, potentially affecting consistent estimation and valid inference. We provide a concise overview of these complications and how to deal with these with appropriate tests and models. Moreover, we apply these insights to empirical examples based on the IPAT identity, offering insights into the robustness of previous findings. Our results suggest that using standard panel techniques can lead to biased estimates, incorrect inference, and invalid model adequacy tests. This can potentially lead to flawed policy conclusions. We provide practical guidance to practitioners for navigating these econometric issues.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Tobias Eibinger","Beate Deixelberger","Hans Manner"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102941","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94a53b6bfd092a1b","title":"Knowledge Spillovers, ICT and Productivity Growth","abstract":"This paper looks at the channels through which intangible assets affect productivity growth. The econometric analysis exploits a new data set on intangible investment (INTAN‐Invest) in conjunction with EUKLEMS productivity estimates for 10 EU member states from 1998 to 2007. We find that (a) the output elasticity of intangible capital depends upon ICT intensity, consistent with complementarities between ICT and intangible capital; (b) non‐R&D intangible capital has a higher estimated output elasticity than its factor share, as does (c) an index of labour composition. The last two findings are consistent with growth spillovers from investments in knowledge‐based/intangible capital and skills.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Carol Corrado","Jonathan Haskel","Cecilia Jona‐Lasinio"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12171","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-94a5f16217480f86","title":"Re-evaluating the urban wage premium: The changing roles of geographical and job transitions for women and men","abstract":"This paper investigates gender as a new source of heterogeneity in the urban wage premium, using a representative panel of 1.2 million worker observations in Great Britain over the period 1999–2019. Pre-2008, women's urban wage premium was more than twice as large as men's (2.8% versus 1.2%), but this difference disappears during the Financial Crisis as women's urban wage premium drastically and permanently drops. This drop is due to the disappearance of women's relative sharing advantages. Moreover, contrary to men, women's urban wage premium is now driven by a wage penalty incurred when changing occupation while transitioning from urban to rural jobs.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Sabine D’Costa"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104038","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94bd90876aef7564","title":"Entry through the narrow door: The costs of just failing high stakes exams","abstract":"In many countries, important thresholds in examinations act as a gateway to higher levels of education and/or improved employment prospects. This paper examines the consequences of just failing a particularly important high stakes national examination taken at the end of compulsory schooling in England. It uses unique administrative data, including full information on both initial and regraded exam marks, to show that students of the same ability have significantly different educational trajectories depending on whether they just pass or fail this exam. Three years later, students who just fail to achieve the required threshold have a lower probability of entering an upper-secondary high-level academic or vocational track and of starting tertiary education. Those who fail to pass the threshold are also more likely to drop out of education by age 18, without some form of employment. The moderately high effects of just passing or failing to pass the threshold in this high-stakes exam has high potential long-term consequences for those affected.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Stephen Machin","Sandra McNally","Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104224","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94c04b74af47da84","title":"Sample-Selection Biases and the Industrialization Puzzle","abstract":"Understanding long-term changes in human well-being is central to understanding the consequences of economic development. An extensive anthropometric literature purports to show that heights in the United States declined between the 1830s and the 1890s, which is when the U.S. economy modernized. Most anthropometric research contends that declining heights reflect the negative health consequences of industrialization and urbanization. This interpretation, however, relies on sources subject to selection bias. Our meta-analysis shows that the declining height during industrialization emerges primarily in selected samples. We also develop a parsimonious diagnostic test that reveals, but does not correct for, selection bias in height samples. When applied to four representative height samples, the diagnostic provides compelling evidence of selection.","wordCount":115,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Howard Bodenhorn","Timothy W. Guinnane","Thomas A. Mroz"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-94c45d7a50f6cea4","title":"A comprehensive socio-economic assessment of EU climate policy pathways","abstract":"The European Green Deal aims to put the EU on track towards climate neutrality by 2050. One of the key elements is a more stringent greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. We analyse the socio-economic consequences of alternative policy pathways to reach that target, either relying more on regulatory standards, on carbon pricing, or a mix of both. We develop a modelling framework that captures macro-economic and sectoral impacts and closely aligns economic and energy system modelling. We further decompose aggregate labour market outcomes into skill and occupation types, and downscale representative household results to micro-level household data to evaluate the distributional effects across income groups with heterogeneous expenditure patterns. By combining models and datasets, our framework enables incorporating a high degree of technological detail while revealing socio-economic aspects of the transition that may go unnoticed in coarse, aggregate assessments. In particular, our results highlight the heterogeneous impacts of climate policy across sectors, worker skill types and income groups, which may require particular attention in climate policy design and corresponding complementary measures to ensure a fair transition to a low-carbon economy.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Matthias Weitzel","Toon Vandyck","Luis Rey Los Santos","Marie Tamba","Umed Temursho","Krzysztof Wójtowicz"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107660","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94cbefebfc6cb92e","title":"On the Origins of the State: Stationary Bandits and Taxation in Eastern Congo","abstract":"A positive demand shock for coltan, a mineral whose bulky output cannot be concealed, leads armed actors to create illicit customs and provide protection at coltan mines, where they settle as “stationary bandits.” A similar shock for gold, easy to conceal, leads to stationary bandits in the villages where income from gold is spent, where they introduce illicit mining visas, taxes, and administrations. Having a stationary bandit from a militia or the Congolese army increases welfare. These findings suggest that armed actors may create “essential functions of a state” to better expropriate, which, depending on their goals, can increase welfare.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Raúl Sierra"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703989","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-94d119107f4649f6","title":"Robust inference for moment condition models without rational expectations","abstract":"Applied researchers using structural models under rational expectations (RE) often confront empirical evidence of misspecification. In this paper we consider a generic dynamic model that is posed as a vector of unconditional moment restrictions. We suppose that the model is globally misspecified under RE, and thus empirically flawed in a way that is not econometrically subtle. We relax the RE restriction by allowing subjective beliefs to differ from the data-generating probability (DGP) model while still maintaining that the moment conditions are satisfied under the subjective beliefs of economic agents. We use statistical measures of divergence relative to RE to bound the set of subjective probabilities. This form of misspecification alters econometric identification and inferences in a substantial way, leading us to construct robust confidence sets for various set identified functionals.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Xiaohong Chen","Lars Peter Hansen","Peter G. Hansen"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105653","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94e1e5d24df8bb97","title":"Alleviating energy poverty in Europe: Front-runners and laggards","abstract":"In recent years, awareness of energy poverty has gained increasing attention in European countries. Comparative country studies can enhance our understanding of the causes and effects of this growing problem. This paper proposes a new model for the analysis of energy poverty. We define a theoretical framework and model to estimate an energy poverty frontier. The estimated frontier indicates the minimum level of energy poverty that a country can achieve given its income level, energy prices, energy intensity, and other country-specific features. We apply the approach to a sample of 30 European countries during the period 2005–2018. This allows us to contrast whether policy measures aimed at reducing the poverty among vulnerable individuals and households have been effective. The results indicate that financial aid aimed at vulnerable groups, reductions in energy prices, and improvements in energy efficiency have been beneficial against energy poverty. These factors may partly explain why, despite the negative income impact of the financial crisis, we found a steady and general energy poverty reduction during the period in almost all the countries analysed.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Ana Rodríguez‐Álvarez","Manuel Llorca","Tooraj Jamasb"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105575","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-94e48c37aa0ced7d","title":"The role of trust in citizen acceptance of climate policy: Comparing perceptions of government competence, integrity and value similarity","abstract":"This study examines the role of citizen trust in explaining climate policy support, using the case of low-carbon transportation policies in Canada – namely a carbon tax, electric vehicle purchase subsidies, and three regulations. Through a representative survey of 1,552 Canadian citizens collected in 2019, we assess: 1) support and opposition of policies, 2) trust in several key actors, and 3) other factors associated with policy support. The majority of respondents support purchase incentives and most regulations, whereas support is considerably lower for a carbon tax. Factor analysis identifies three different types of trust in key actors: competence, integrity, and value similarity. Fewer than 50% of respondents trust their national or provincial government regarding climate change issues in general or according to each type of trust. Regression analysis assesses the role of trust in policy support, while controlling for respondent values and demographic characteristics. Perceptions of national government “competence” is the only trust variable that is consistently positively associated with support for all five policies tested. Other forms of trust (integrity and value similarity) and trust in the provincial government are not consistently associated with policy support.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Shelby Kitt","Jonn Axsen","Zoe Long","Ekaterina Rhodes"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106958","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-94eb659b4a76cec8","title":"Obviously Strategy-Proof Mechanisms","abstract":"A strategy is obviously dominant if, for any deviation, at any information set where both strategies first diverge, the best outcome under the deviation is no better than the worst outcome under the dominant strategy. A mechanism is obviously strategy-proof (OSP) if it has an equilibrium in obviously dominant strategies. This has a behavioral interpretation: a strategy is obviously dominant if and only if a cognitively limited agent can recognize it as weakly dominant. It also has a classical interpretation: a choice rule is OSP-implementable if and only if it can be carried out by a social planner under a particular regime of partial commitment.","wordCount":105,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Shengwu Li"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160425","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-94ff0e3c153410f7","title":"Ownership frictions in a procurement market: Evidence from London buses","abstract":"This paper investigates the efficiency impact of garage ownership frictions in the procurement of public bus transportation services in London. In this market, operators are less competitive for routes far from their garages, leading to local monopoly rents. Empty bus travel between garages and routes ( dead miles ) is found to account for about 13 percent of driving time in this market. Consequentially, sizeable effects of dead mile minutes on bids and procurement costs are estimated. Taking the urban context and the demand side as given, and treating this market as a typical network industry, counterfactual simulations evaluate the effect of unbundling the ownership of bus garages from the operation of the bus routes. Letting a central dispatcher allocate buses to garages would reduce total dead miles by 14 percent, with corresponding reductions of operating costs and of polluting exhaust emissions.","wordCount":142,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Marleen Marra","Florian Oswald"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103080","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-95053cc488ee074b","title":"International Technology Spillovers and Growth over the Past 142 Years: The Role of Genetic Proximity","abstract":"This paper suggests genetic proximity, in addition to geographic proximity and imports, as a factor facilitating international knowledge transmission, where knowledge is measured as the stock of knowledge as well as research intensity to allow for the possibility that international knowledge spillovers have permanent productivity growth effects. Using data for 31 countries with diverse development paths over the period 1870–2011, the results show that genetic proximity and imports are important in facilitating knowledge transmission, and that knowledge spillovers have permanent growth effects.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Jakob B. Madsen","Minoo Farhadi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12202","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9515e3ee11c338c2","title":"The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking","abstract":"We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Michael Kirchler","David Andersson","Caroline Bonn","Magnus Johannesson","Erik Ø. Sørensen","Matthias Stefan","Gustav Tinghög","Daniel Västfjäll"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9252-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-95192e51935b087e","title":"Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy","abstract":"Using an original panel data set for 24 OECD countries over the sample 1990-2019 and a multivariate empirical macroeconomic framework for business cycle analysis, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and green innovation. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy typical of a disorderly transition are exacerbated for low income, high emission countries with no history of environmental policy or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, one size does not fit all and results support the need for a (possibly country-specific) policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Matteo Ciccarelli","Fulvia Marotta"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107163","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-952b97a981c0fd1e","title":"Do taxes on soda and sugary drinks work? Scanner data evidence from berkeley and washington state","abstract":"We study two beverage taxes: the SSB tax of 1¢/oz in the city of Berkeley (in effect since 2015) and the temporary 2010 soda tax of 0.166¢/oz in Washington State. Using detailed scanner data, we find that prices in Washington reacted sharply and promptly (often by a larger magnitude than the tax), whereas retail prices in Berkeley reacted marginally (by less than 30% the magnitude of the tax). Further, we find a 5% volume reduction in Washington but fail to detect an effect in Berkeley. We discuss the possible causes for the discrepancy in effectiveness, in particular cross‐border shopping.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Christian Rojas","Emily Wang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12957","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-954e15d2c82c1f8c","title":"A Framework for Decoupling Human Need Satisfaction From Energy Use","abstract":"Climate change poses great challenges to modern societies, central amongst which is to decouple human need satisfaction from energy use. Energy systems are the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, and the services provided by energy (such as heating, power, transport and lighting) are vital to support human development. To address this challenge, we advocate for a eudaimonic need-centred understanding of human well-being, as opposed to hedonic subjective views of well-being. We also argue for a shift in the way we analyse energy demand, from energy throughput to energy services. By adopting these perspectives on either end of the wellbeing-energy spectrum, a “double decoupling” potential can be uncovered. We present a novel analytic framework and showcase several methodological approaches for analysing the relationship between, and decoupling of, energy services and human needs. We conclude by proposing future directions of research in this area based on the analytic framework.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Lina Brand-Correa","J. Steinberger"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.05.019","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-955d63e65383f6c5","title":"Price Versus Market Share with Royalty Licensing: Incomplete Adoption of a Superior Technology with Heterogeneous Firms","abstract":"This article shows that the usual result of full adoption of a superior technology induced by pure royalty licensing may not hold when firms have different production technologies. By modeling a Cournot licensing game with an external innovator that offers per-unit royalty contracts to downstream firms, this article shows that full adoption of the innovation occurs only if (1) the new technology is sufficiently more efficient than the best one that is available in the market; or (2) if the firms have similar efficiency levels. Moreover, I disentangle two distinct forces that influence the innovator’s choice: a price effect (PE) and a market share effect (MSE). The former highlights the asymmetry in willingness to pay for the latest technology. The inefficient firms, which benefit the most from the cost-reducing innovation, are willing to pay a higher price to become a licensee than are their efficient rivals. The latter illustrates the innovator’s aim to maximize the volume of royalties that are collected by licensing to many firms. When PE dominates MSE, the patent holder sets a higher royalty rate and attracts fewer, less efficient firms. Otherwise, if MSE dominates, the patent holder reduces the royalty rate and attracts more firms so as to reach as many consumers as possible. From a policy perspective, I show that royalty licensing improves consumer surplus and that the positive effect increases with the number of licensees.","wordCount":231,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Luca Sandrini"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09935-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9585516cb3d7b3c4","title":"Mindfulness training, cognitive performance and stress reduction","abstract":"Improving cognitive function and reducing stress may yield important benefits to individuals’ health and to society. We conduct an experiment involving a three-month within-firm training program based on the principles of mindfulness and positive psychology at three large companies. We find an improvement in the difference-in-differences across the training and control groups in all five non-incentivized measures and in seven of the eight incentivized tasks. but only the non-incentivized measures and one of the incentivized measures reached a standard level of significance (above 5 %), showing strong evidence of its impact on both reducing perceived stress and increasing self-reported cognitive flexibility and mindfulness. At the aggregate level, we identify an average treatment effect on the treated for the non-incentivized measures and some effect for the incentivized measures. Remarkably, the treatment effects persisted three months after the training sessions ended. Overall, mindfulness training seems to provide benefits for psychological and cognitive health in adults.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Gary Charness","Yves Le Bihan","Marie Claire Villeval"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.10.027","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9596bc8127af454f","title":"Informal economy and central bank digital currency","abstract":"This paper explores the association between the informal economy and the adoption of central bank digital currency (CBDC) by end users, namely households and businesses. Our findings suggest that CBDC may not be widely accepted by end users in the presence of a sizable informal economy in which cash is the primary method of payment. CBDC can decrease informality, but this effect becomes weaker in countries with larger informal economies. Tax reduction and CBDC interest rates can be useful tools to promote the adoption and effectiveness of CBDC, leading to a reallocation effect between formal and informal sectors.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Eun Young Oh","Shuonan Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13105","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-959b9debe276edde","title":"Valuing externalities of outdoor advertising in an urban setting – the case of Warsaw","abstract":"Outdoor advertising (OA) produces externalities, such as access to information and visual pollution, that have to be considered in cityscape planning. We propose a theoretical model of demand for OA that considers positive and negative externalities, as well as consumers income and advertising space they can rent. We then present the results of a stated preference study aimed at estimating the value that people attach to the reductions of OA in Warsaw, the capital of Poland. We considered two types of OA mediums: free-standing ads and on-building ads, alongside five levels of advertising reduction. We find that inhabitants of Warsaw prefer regulating and limiting the amount of OA and we quantify their willingness to pay for such a policy. In total, the people of Warsaw were willing to pay from 1.7 to 4.1 million EUR per year for limiting the number of free-standing ads and 5.5–9.3 million EUR per year for limiting of advertising on buildings, depending on the scope of reductions. The results are used for validating the theoretical model. They also serve as input for a benefit-cost analysis of optimal regulation and provide a basis for designing market-based instruments (e.g., Pigouvian tax) to adjust the amount of advertising to socially optimal level. Overall, our study demonstrates how stated preference methods can be used for informing urban landscape policies and adds to the ongoing debate surrounding OA.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Mikołaj Czajkowski","Michał Bylicki","Wiktor Budziński","Mateusz Buczyński"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103452","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-95a948b194335d18","title":"Technology and Production Fragmentation: Domestic versus Foreign Sourcing","abstract":"This article provides direct empirical evidence on the relationship between technology and firms’ global sourcing strategies. Using new data on U.S. firms’ decisions to contract for manufacturing services from domestic or foreign suppliers, I show that a firm’s adoption of communication technology between 2002 and 2007 is associated with a 3.1 point increase in its probability of fragmentation. The effect of firm technology also differs significantly across industries; in 2007, it is 20% higher, relative to the mean, in industries with production specifications that are easier to codify in an electronic format. These patterns suggest that technology lowers coordination costs, though its effect is disproportionately higher for domestic rather than foreign sourcing. The larger impact on domestic fragmentation highlights its importance as an alternative to offshoring, and can be explained by complementarities between technology and worker skill. High technology firms and industries are more likely to source from high human capital countries, and the differential impact of technology across industries is strongly increasing in country human capital.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Teresa Fort"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw057","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-95bf8f7ec11aac97","title":"Farther on down the Road: Transport Costs, Trade and Urban Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"This paper investigates the role of inter-city transport costs in determining the income of sub-Saharan African cities. In particular, focusing on fifteen countries whose largest city is a port, I find that an oil price increase of the magnitude experienced between 2002 and 2008 induces the income of cities near that port to increase by 7 percent relative to otherwise identical cities 500 kilometers farther away. Combined with external estimates, this implies an elasticity of city economic activity with respect to transport costs of -0.28 at 500 kilometers from the port. Moreover, the effect differs by the surface of roads between cities. Cities connected to the port by paved roads are chiefly affected by transport costs to the port, while cities connected to the port by unpaved roads are more affected by connections to secondary centers.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Adam Storeygard"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-95cce36afc89fbcd","title":"Collateral eligibility of corporate debt in the Eurosystem","abstract":"We study the many implications of the Eurosystem collateral framework for corporate bonds. Using data on the evolving collateral eligibility list, we identify the first inclusion dates of bonds and issuers and use these events to find that the increased supply and demand for pledgeable collateral following eligibility (a) increases activity in the corporate securities lending market, (b) lowers eligible bond yields, and (c) affects bond liquidity. Thus, corporate bond lending relaxes the constraint of limited collateral supply and thereby improves market functioning.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Loriana Pelizzon","Max Riedel","Zorka Simon","Marti G. Subrahmanyam"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103777","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-95d4282740c24fbd","title":"The Asset Redeployability Channel: How Uncertainty Affects Corporate Investment","abstract":"This paper examines how uncertainty affects corporate investment under varying degrees of asset redeployability. We develop new measures of asset redeployability by accounting for the usability of assets within and across industries. We identify plausibly exogenous shocks to economic uncertainty by using major economic and political events. We find that after an increase in uncertainty, firms using less redeployable capital reduce investment more. More redeployable assets exhibit higher recovery rates and are traded more actively in secondary markets. Overall, our results suggest that frictions in redeploying assets affect liquidation values and therefore make firms cautious about investment decisions under uncertainty.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Hyunseob Kim","Howard Kung"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv076","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-95ddbaf66546c1b9","title":"The Rising Postgraduate Wage Premium","abstract":"Despite post‐college degree holders now making up nearly 15% of the US adult workforce, studies of their labour market performance remain sparse. This is surprising given that they are the most educated group in the labour force and as, over time, they have done significantly better than all other education groups. We show a significant rise over time in the postgraduate wage premium, reflecting an increased relative demand due to their superior skill sets and occupational status. The increase in the demand for postgraduates is a key factor behind rising wage inequality within the increasingly heterogeneous college graduate workforce.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Joanne Lindley","Stephen Machin"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12184","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-95dddcb20e346a20","title":"Context matters","abstract":"Eliciting the level of risk aversion of experimental subjects is of crucial concern to experimenters. In the literature there are a variety of methods used for such elicitation; the concern of the experiment reported in this paper is to compare them. The methods we investigate are the following: Holt-Laury price lists; pairwise choices, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak method; allocation questions. Clearly their relative efficiency in measuring risk aversion depends upon the numbers of questions asked; but the method itself may well influence the estimated risk-aversion. While it is impossible to determine a 'best' method (as the truth is unknown) we can look at the differences between the different methods. We carried out an experiment in four parts, corresponding to the four different methods, with 96 subjects. In analysing the data our methodology involves fitting preference functionals; we use four, Expected Utility and Rank-Dependent Expected Utility, each combined with either a CRRA or a CARA utility function. Our results show that the inferred level of risk aversion is more sensitive to the elicitation method than to the assumed-true preference functional. Experimenters should worry most about context.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Wenting Zhou","John D. Hey"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9546-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-95e8270306a4bd74","title":"The impact of an online game-based financial education course: Multi-country experimental evidence","abstract":"This paper evaluates the impact of an online game-based financial education tool on students' financial literacy levels. By conducting a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) involving 2,220 students across four countries in a multi-country experimental setting, we demonstrate that the intervention significantly enhances students' financial literacy levels by 0.313 SD. This study contributes to the emerging academic literature concerning the evaluation of financial education interventions that incorporate learning-by-playing. The participation of students from four countries adds relevance by facilitating cross-comparison of outcomes and stimulating discussions about country-specific factors and peculiarities influencing youth financial literacy.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Marta Cannistrà","Kenneth De Beckker","Tommaso Agasisti","Aisa Amagir","Kaire Põder","Lukáš Vartiak","Kristof De Witte"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-95e90f421bdecbb9","title":"Systemic bank runs without aggregate risk: How a misallocation of liquidity may trigger a solvency crisis","abstract":"We develop a general equilibrium model of self-fulfilling bank runs. The key novelty is the way in which the banking system’s assets and liabilities are connected. Banks issue loans to entrepreneurs who sell goods to households, which in turn pay for the goods by redeeming bank deposits. The return on bank assets is thus contingent on households being able to withdraw their deposits. In a run, not all households that wish to consume manage to withdraw, since part of banks’ cash reserves end up in the hands of households without consumption needs. This misallocation of liquidity lowers revenues of entrepreneurs and bank asset returns, thereby rationalising the run. Interventions that restrict redemptions in a run can be self-defeating due to their negative effect on demand in goods markets. We show how runs can sometimes be prevented with combinations of deposit freezes and redemption penalties as well as with the provision of emergency liquidity.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Lukas Altermatt","Hugo van Buggenum","Lukas Voellmy"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103929","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-960f59c9577f42b2","title":"Institutional-cultural coherence and economic development: The case of the Spanish regions","abstract":"We explore how cultural traits coherent with liberal institutions affect economic performance. The matching between cultural traits and institutions is what we refer to as cultural-institutional coherence. We study how cultural-institutional coherence influenced the paths followed by Spanish regions after Spain's liberal reforms in the 19th century. We argue that these liberal reforms brought important changes to Spain's institutions and contributed to inducing a major rearrangement in the distribution of economic development across the country's regions. This process favored regions with cultural traits that were more coherent with liberal institutions. We address endogeneity issues using the disparate political paths that the regions followed in their distant pasts. We characterize political paths in terms of Municipal autonomy in the Middle Ages, as well as Constraints on the executive in the early modern period which, we argue, are good instruments for these cultural traits.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["David Soto-Oñate","Gustavo Torrens"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.08.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-96118d33ba961fec","title":"Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation","abstract":"Many economic and causal parameters depend on nonparametric or high dimensional first steps. We give a general construction of locally robust/orthogonal moment functions for GMM, where first steps have no effect, locally, on average moment functions. Using these orthogonal moments reduces model selection and regularization bias, as is important in many applications, especially for machine learning first steps. Also, associated standard errors are robust to misspecification when there is the same number of moment functions as parameters of interest. We use these orthogonal moments and cross‐fitting to construct debiased machine learning estimators of functions of high dimensional conditional quantiles and of dynamic discrete choice parameters with high dimensional state variables. We show that additional first steps needed for the orthogonal moment functions have no effect, globally, on average orthogonal moment functions. We give a general approach to estimating those additional first steps. We characterize double robustness and give a variety of new doubly robust moment functions. We give general and simple regularity conditions for asymptotic theory.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Victor Chernozhukov","Juan Carlos Escanciano","Hidehiko Ichimura","Whitney K. Newey","James M. Robins"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16294","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9624366830aebcd9","title":"What Is a Patent Worth? Evidence from the U.S. Patent “Lottery”","abstract":"We provide evidence on the value of patents to startups by leveraging the quasi‐random assignment of applications to examiners with different propensities to [grant]. Using unique data on all first‐time applications filed at the U.S. Patent Office since 2001, we find that startups that win the patent “lottery” by drawing lenient examiners have, on average, 55% higher employment growth and 80% higher sales growth five years later. Patent winners also pursue more, and higher quality, follow‐on innovation. Winning a first patent boosts a startup’s subsequent growth and innovation by facilitating access to funding from venture capitalists, banks, and public investors.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Joan Farre-Mensa","Deepak Hegde","Alexander Ljungqvist"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12867","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-964048683732a3b0","title":"The effects of corporate environmental disclosure on environmental innovation from stakeholder perspectives","abstract":"Based on legitimacy theory and resource dependence theory, using 111 listed companies among China’s typically high pollution-emitting listed corporations, research into the effects of environmental disclosure on environmental innovation is undertaken. From the perspective of stakeholders, we analyse the moderating effects of different proportions of institutional investor holdings and types of enterprises on the relationship between environmental disclosure and environmental innovation. The results indicate that corporate environmental disclosure has a positive role in promoting environmental innovation; the proportion of institutional investor holdings has a positive moderating effect between environmental disclosure and environmental innovation. However, there is no significant difference between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in terms of the effect of the environmental disclosure on environmental innovation, which possibly arises because both types of enterprises make full use of their own advantages to instigate environmental innovation through environmental disclosure. The conclusions may help enterprise decision-makers implementing environmental innovation and government policy makers formulating scientific policies to promote the clean production in enterprises.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Jianhua Yin","Sen Wang"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1346362","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-964567b98de4bac7","title":"Long-term consequences of workplace bullying on sickness absence","abstract":"Bullying in workplaces is a problem thought to harm individual productivity. This paper investigates whether being exposed to bullying in the workplace increases long-term sickness absence. We analyze employees from a selection of workplaces from The Bullying Cohort Study conducted in Denmark in 2006. The Negative Acts Questionnaire-Revised was used to avoid bias related to self-labeling as being bullied. We account for important confounders, such as historical information on sickness absence and mental health, obtained through rich registry data. Our results show that gender does not significantly explain exposure to bullying and that exposure to bullying is associated with negative immediate self-reported health for both genders. We also find, however, that only bullied females have higher, persistent increases in long-term sickness absence and adverse long-term health. This suggests that men and women have different coping strategies. We investigate plausible explanations for this and find that the differences cannot be explained by, for example, turnover or lack of employment. Although insignificant, our results nonetheless indicate that men are twice as likely to leave the labor force immediately after exposure to bullying.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Tine Louise Mundbjerg Eriksen","Annie Høgh","Åse Marie Hansen"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2016.06.008","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9651eb9fd7fa052c","title":"Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies","abstract":"We study the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor markets using establishment-level data on the near universe of online vacancies in the United States from 2010 onward. There is rapid growth in AI-related vacancies over 2010–18 that is driven by establishments whose workers engage in tasks compatible with AI’s current capabilities. As these AI-exposed establishments adopt AI, they simultaneously reduce hiring in non-AI positions and change the skill requirements of remaining postings. While visible at the establishment level, the aggregate impacts of AI-labor substitution on employment and wage growth in more exposed occupations and industries is currently too small to be detectable.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","David Autor","Jonathon Hazell","Pascual Restrepo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718327","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-9655e0a1c59e114b","title":"Ethnicity and tax filing behavior","abstract":"We analyze differences in tax filing between natives and immigrants, focusing on two empirical examples. First, we study deductions for costs associated with traveling between home and work allowed in the Swedish tax code. Using the total population of commuters within Sweden’s largest commuting zone, we find that newly arrived immigrants file substantially less than natives, immigrants with a longer stay behave more like natives, and immigrants with the longest stay file the most, even more than natives. Second, we analyze bunching behavior among the self-employed at a large salient kink point of the Swedish income tax schedule. We find much less bunching among immigrants, even after a long time in the host country, and the largest differences relative to natives in residential areas with a high immigrant concentration. Our findings have implications for the equity and efficiency of the tax system and the spatial patterns of residential and occupational choices for different ethnic groups.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Spencer Bastani","Thomas Giebe","Chizheng Miao"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.103215","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9659862ef355b894","title":"Partisan selective engagement: Evidence from Facebook","abstract":"This study investigates the effects of variation in “congeniality” of news on Facebook user engagement (likes, shares, and comments). We compile an original data set of Facebook posts by 84 German news outlets on politicians that were investigated for criminal offenses from January 2012 to June 2017. We also construct an index of each outlet's media slant by comparing the language of the outlet with that of the main political parties, which allows us to measure the congeniality of the posts. We find that user engagement with congenial posts is higher than with uncongenial ones, especially in terms of likes. The within-outlet, within-topic design allows us to infer that the greater engagement with congenial news is likely driven by psychological and social factors, rather than a desire for accurate or otherwise instrumental information.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Marcel Garz","Jil Sörensen","Daniel Stone"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.06.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-965b330921005fca","title":"Does the Scope of the Sell‐Side Analyst Industry Matter? An Examination of Bias, Accuracy, and Information Content of Analyst Reports","abstract":"We examine changes in the scope of the sell‐side analyst industry and whether these changes impact information dissemination and the quality of analysts’ reports. Our findings suggest that changes in the number of analysts covering an industry impact analyst competition and have significant spillover effects on other analysts’ forecast accuracy, bias, report informativeness, and effort. These spillover industry effects are incremental to the effects of firm level changes in analyst coverage. Overall, a more significant sell‐side analyst industry presence has positive externalities that can result in better functioning capital markets.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Kenneth J. Merkley","Roni Michaely","Joseph Pacelli"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12485","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-965cd7b693b0f484","title":"Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction","abstract":"Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Shelby D. Gerking","Wiktor Adamowicz","Mark Dickie","Marcella Veronesi"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9267-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-965d1ffc3fbfaad3","title":"Deep Neural Networks for Estimation and Inference","abstract":"We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel nonasymptotic high probability bounds for deep feedforward neural nets. These deliver rates of convergence that are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid second‐step inference after first‐step estimation with deep learning, a result also new to the literature. Our nonasymptotic high probability bounds, and the subsequent semiparametric inference, treat the current standard architecture: fully connected feedforward neural networks (multilayer perceptrons), with the now‐common rectified linear unit activation function, unbounded weights, and a depth explicitly diverging with the sample size. We discuss other architectures as well, including fixed‐width, very deep networks. We establish the nonasymptotic bounds for these deep nets for a general class of nonparametric regression‐type loss functions, which includes as special cases least squares, logistic regression, and other generalized linear models. We then apply our theory to develop semiparametric inference, focusing on causal parameters for concreteness, and demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning with an empirical application to direct mail marketing.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Max H. Farrell","Tengyuan Liang","Sanjog Misra"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16901","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-9685f0f0a614f059","title":"Why do people keep their promises? A further investigation","abstract":"Two rationales have emerged for why individuals keep their promises: (a) an emotional commitment to keep actions and words consistent, a commitment rationale and (b) avoidance of guilt due to not meeting the expectations of the promisee, an expectations rationale . We propose a new dichotomy with clearer distinctions between rationales: (1) an internal consistency rationale, which is the desire to keep actions and words consistent regardless of others’ awareness of the promise and (2) a communication rationale, which captures all aspects of promise keeping that are associated with the promisee having learned of the promise, including but not limited to promisee expectations. Using an experiment that manipulates whether promises are delivered, we find no support for the internal consistency rationale; only delivered promises are relevant. In a second experiment designed to better understand what aspect of promise delivery influences promisor behavior, we manipulate whether the promise is delivered before or after the promisee is able to take a trusting action. We find late-arriving promises are relevant though not as relevant as promises delivered before the promisee chooses whether to take the trusting action. We conclude that implicit contracting does not fully explain promise keeping, because had it done so, late-arriving promises would also be irrelevant.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Steven T. Schwartz","Eric E. Spires","Rick Young"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9567-2","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-96896b9c7bc3c6ae","title":"Land Reform and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Micro Data","abstract":"We assess the effects of a major land policy change on farm size and agricultural productivity using a quantitative model and micro-level data. We study the 1988 land reform in the Philippines that imposed a ceiling on land holdings, redistributed above-ceiling lands to landless and smallholder households, and severely restricted the transferability of the redistributed farmlands. We study this reform in the context of an industry model of agriculture with a nondegenerate distribution of farm sizes featuring an occupation decision and a technology choice of farm operators. In this model, the land reform can reduce agricultural productivity not only by misallocating resources across farmers but also by distorting farmers’ occupation and technology decisions. The model, calibrated to prereform farm-level data in the Philippines, implies that on impact, the land reform reduces average farm size by 34 percent and agricultural productivity by 17 percent. The government assignment of land and the ban on its transfer are key for the magnitude of the results since a market allocation of the above-ceiling land produces about one-third of the size and productivity effects. These results emphasize the potential role of land market efficiency for misallocation and productivity in the agricultural sector.","wordCount":197,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Tasso Adamopoulos","Diego Restuccia"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150222","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-968f0fc738bc9908","title":"Automation and Job Polarization: On the Decline of Middling Occupations in Europe","abstract":"Using data from 10 Western European countries, I provide evidence that the fall in prices of information technologies (IT) is associated with a lower share of employment in middle‐wage occupations and a higher share of employment in high wage occupations in industries which depend more on IT relative to industries which depend less. Similar results hold within gender and age groups, with notable differences in these groups. For instance, the share of employment in high wage occupations among males has increased less than among females with the fall in IT prices.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Vahagn Jerbashian"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12298","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-96931cc85cd544c7","title":"Slavery and Anglo‐American capitalism revisited","abstract":"British and American debates on the relationship between slavery and economic growth have had little interaction with each other. This article attempts intellectual arbitrage by joining these two literatures. The linkage turns on the neglected part two of the ‘Williams thesis’: that slavery and the slave trade, once vital for the expansion of British industry and commerce, were no longer needed by the nineteenth century. In contrast to recent assertions of the centrality of slavery for US economic development, the article argues that part two of the Williams thesis applies with equal force to nineteenth‐century America. Unlike sugar, cotton required no large investments of fixed capital and could be cultivated efficiently at any scale, in locations that would have been settled by free farmers in the absence of slavery. Cheap cotton was undoubtedly important for the growth of textiles, but cheap cotton did not require slavery. The best evidence for this claim is that after two decades of war, abolition, and Reconstruction, cotton prices returned to their prewar levels. In both countries, the rise of anti‐slavery sentiment was not driven by the prospect of direct economic benefits, but major economic interest groups acquiesced in abolition because they no longer saw slavery as indispensable.","wordCount":203,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Gavin Wright"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12962","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-96a978519c12ff77","title":"Endogenous Stratification in Randomized Experiments","abstract":"Policymakers are often interested in estimating how policy interventions affect the outcomes of those most in need of help. This concern has motivated the practice of disaggregating experimental results by groups constructed on the basis of an index of baseline characteristics that predicts the values of individual outcomes without the treatment. This paper shows that substantial biases may arise in practice if the index is estimated by regressing the outcome variable on baseline characteristics for the full sample of experimental controls. We propose alternative methods that correct this bias and show that they behave well in realistic scenarios.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Alberto Abadie","Matthew M. Chingos","Martin R. West"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00732","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-96be37876f0bb614","title":"Fragmented division of labor and healthcare costs: Evidence from moves across regions","abstract":"Policies aiming to improve healthcare productivity often focus on reducing care fragmentation. Care fragmentation occurs when services are spread across many providers, potentially making coordination difficult. Using Medicare claims data, we analyze the effect of moving to a region with more fragmented care delivery. We find that 60% of regional variation in care fragmentation is independent of patients' individual demand for care and moving to a region with 1 SD higher fragmentation increases care utilization by 10%. When patients move to more fragmented regions, they increase their use of specialists and have fewer encounters with primary care physicians. More fragmented regions have more intensive care provision on many margins, including services sometimes associated with overutilization (hospitalizations, emergency department visits, repeat imaging studies) as well as services associated with high value care (vaccines, guideline concordant for diabetics).","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Leila Agha","Brigham Frandsen","James B. Rebitzer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.11.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-96c76bd5e203a728","title":"Tail forecasting with multivariate bayesian additive regression trees","abstract":"We develop multivariate time‐series models using Bayesian additive regression trees that posit nonlinearities among macroeconomic variables, their lags, and possibly their lagged errors. The error variances can be stable, feature stochastic volatility, or follow a nonparametric specification. We evaluate density and tail forecast performance for a set of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators. Our results suggest that the proposed models improve forecast accuracy both overall and in the tails. Another finding is that when allowing for nonlinearities in the conditional mean, heteroskedasticity becomes less important. A scenario analysis reveals nonlinear relations between predictive distributions and financial conditions.","wordCount":97,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Todd E. Clark","Florian Huber","Gary Koop","Massimiliano Marcellino","Michael Pfarrhofer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12619","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-96e39ae261f011cc","title":"Social norms and energy conservation in China","abstract":"This paper investigates how social norms influence energy conservation behaviors in China. Through a field experiment, we demonstrate that simply providing social comparison information can lead to significant energy reductions, even when the potential consumption and monetary gains from energy savings are limited. Specifically, energy consumption was reduced by 0.42 kWh, sufficient to meet a household’s daily energy needs for lighting. Our findings further indicate that this conservation effect is only significant for households using convenient payment schemes (quick-pay) via other digital platforms, which only offer monetary costs without other information. Hence, attention and information on energy consumption are relatively lacking for these households. This result reveals the potential mechanism of social norms as a reminder, drawing users’ attention to their energy consumption behaviors. This study offers valuable insights into the application and mechanism of social norms, emphasizing the importance of providing additional reminder information as auto- and quick-pay schemes become more prevalent.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Libo Wu","Yang Zhou"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101491","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-96e8965963d83256","title":"Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality","abstract":"We show that financial knowledge is a key determinant of wealth inequality in a stochastic lifecycle model with endogenous financial knowledge accumulation, where financial knowledge enables individuals to better allocate lifetime resources in a world of uncertainty and imperfect insurance. Moreover, because of how the U.S. social insurance system works, better-educated individuals have most to gain from investing in financial knowledge. Our parsimonious specification generates substantial wealth inequality relative to a one-asset saving model and one where returns on wealth depend on portfolio composition alone. We estimate that 30-40 percent of retirement wealth inequality is accounted for by financial knowledge.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Annamaria Lusardi","Pierre‐Carl Michaud","Olivia S. Mitchell"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690950","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-971556b74ae79878","title":"Economic behavior of children and adolescents – A first survey of experimental economics results","abstract":"About 15 years ago, economic experiments with children and adolescents were considered as an extravagant niche of economic research. Since then, this type of research has exploded in scope and depth. It has become clear that studying the development of economic behavior and its determinants is important to understand economic behavior of adults and to provide a basis for potential policy interventions with respect to economic behavior in childhood and adolescence. Given the huge increase of papers, we provide the first overview of economic experiments with children and adolescents. We focus on the following aspects: rationality of choices, risk preferences, time preferences, social preferences, cooperation, and competitiveness. All of these aspects are analyzed with respect to the influence of age and gender, and we also consider the role of socio-economic status or interventions.","wordCount":133,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Matthias Sutter","Claudia Zoller","Daniela Glätzle‐Rützler"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.09.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-971e81d91cb5b777","title":"Land reform and rural conflict. Evidence from 1930s Spain","abstract":"Re-distributive policies are often used by governments to forestall conflict. This paper analyzes the evolution of rural conflict in a region of 1930s Spain in which fast transfers of land using temporal expropriations were aimed at reducing poverty and mitigate conflict. Using a subset of exogenous land transfers, we document that these transfers did not reduce conflict. If anything, they increased some types of conflicts for several months after implementation. The short run increase in conflict is consistent with two potential side effects of land reforms. First, land reforms can boost the collective action of beneficiaries. Second, poorly designed reforms can reduce the incomes of beneficiaries.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Sergi Basco","Jordi Domènech","Laura Maravall"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101530","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-971fbf9290cbf070","title":"Gender Disparities in Sentencing","abstract":"This paper uses the universe of convictions in France between 2000 and 2003 to document the gender gap in sentencing. It reveals three main findings. First, during this period, and after controlling for very precise descriptions of the offences as well as other observable characteristics, women received prison sentences that were 15 days shorter, on average, than those of men who committed comparable offences. This represents a 33% decrease relative to the average sentence length in the sample (45 days in the entire sample). Second, this gender gap is also observed for mixed‐gender pairs of criminals (one man and one woman) who are convicted together, on the same day, by the same person and for the same crime. Finally, this paper presents robust evidence that the gender gap is affected by the gender of the judge, but not that of the prosecutor. Using the evolution of the courts’ composition between 2000 and 2003, the results show that a one‐standard‐deviation increase in the number of women in the court decreases the gender gap by 10%.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Arnaud Philippe"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12333","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9741c51e1d8a967d","title":"Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically","abstract":"We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross-section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how selected characteristics affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large number of characteristics and allows for a flexible functional form. Our implementation is insensitive to outliers. Many of the previously identified return predictors don’t provide incremental information for expected returns, and nonlinearities are important. We study our method’s properties in simulations and find large improvements in both model selection and prediction compared to alternative selection methods.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Joachim Freyberger","Andreas Neuhierl","Michael Weber"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz123","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9748dd9d1c5eee5a","title":"Far above others","abstract":"We study the role of competitiveness, via interpersonal comparisons, in a society or a large organization. We consider a dynamic model of effort provision. Agents gain an extra utility by producing an outcome above a “comparison threshold” derived from the outcomes of their reference group in a random network. There are two different sources of competitiveness: the stringency of the comparison threshold and the weight given to relative performance in the utility function. We find that these two sources operate in opposite directions. Societies with higher competitiveness may not necessarily lead to more competitive outcomes (i.e., higher effort provision). Finally, we show that the effects of an increase in the density and variance of the network crucially depend on the stringency of the comparison threshold.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Dunia López-Pintado","Miguel A. Meléndez-Jímenez"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105376","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-97623df87bc911c8","title":"Sieve bootstrap inference for linear time-varying coefficient models","abstract":"We propose a sieve bootstrap framework to conduct pointwise and simultaneous inference for time-varying coefficient regression models based on a local linear estimator. The asymptotic validity of the sieve bootstrap in the presence of autocorrelation is established. The bootstrap automatically produces a consistent estimate of nuisance parameters, both at the interior and boundary points. In addition, we develop a bootstrap-based test for parameter constancy and examine its asymptotic properties. An extensive simulation study demonstrates a good finite sample performance of our methods. The proposed methods are applied to assess the price development of CO2 certificates in the European Emissions Trading System. We find evidence of time variation in the relationship between allowance prices and their fundamental price drivers. The time variation might offer an explanation for previous contradicting findings using linear regression models with constant coefficients.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Marina Friedrich","Yicong Lin"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.09.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9778774ed1af8a3f","title":"The role of generalised reciprocity and reciprocal tendencies in the emergence of cooperative group norms","abstract":"Norms for cooperation are essential for groups to function effectively, yet there are often strong incentives for group members to behave selfishly. Direct and indirect reciprocity can help to discourage such uncooperative behaviour by punishing defectors and rewarding cooperators, but require explicit means for punishment and tally-keeping. What, then, encourages an individual to cooperate with their group when others cannot track the behaviour of others? We adapted the Bargaining Game to examine the emergence and maintenance of cooperation among 20 groups of six anonymous players (N = 120) who interacted amongst themselves over recursive bargaining exchanges. By estimating the expected utility that drives players’ demands in these interactions, we demonstrate that their behaviour on each exchange reflects the demands placed upon them previously. Thus, we highlight the role of generalised reciprocity in such situations; that is, when an individual passes on to another member of their group the behaviour they have received previously. Furthermore, we identify four distinct behavioural types that differ in their expressions of generalised reciprocity: Some players converge quickly on cooperative demands regardless of the behaviour they received from their co-players, and are therefore characterised by low expressions of reciprocity. In contrast, individuals with strong reciprocal tendencies decrease their demands over successive interactions in response to the behaviour of their group. By simulating groups with different compositions of these player types, we reveal the strong influence of individual differences in reciprocal tendencies on the emergence of cooperative group dynamics.","wordCount":242,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Miguel Salazar","Daniel J. Shaw","Kristína Czekóová","Rostislav Staněk","Milan Brázdil"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102520","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9781105d22655b05","title":"Attention to Global Warming","abstract":"We find that people revise their beliefs about climate change upward when experiencing warmer than usual temperatures in their area. Using international data, we show that attention to climate change, as proxied by Google search volume, increases when the local temperature is abnormally high. In financial markets, stocks of carbon-intensive firms underperform firms with low carbon emissions in abnormally warm weather. Retail investors (not institutional investors) sell carbon-intensive firms in such weather, and return patterns are unlikely to be driven by changes in fundamentals. Our study sheds light on peoples’ collective beliefs and actions about global warming.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Darwin Choi","Zhenyu Gao","Wenxi Jiang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz086","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-97a17c5229bc7cf0","title":"The Earned Income Tax Credit and Maternal Time Use: More Time Working and Less Time with Kids?","abstract":"Parents spend considerable time and resources investing in their children’s development. Given evidence that the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) affects maternal labor supply, we investigate how the maximum available EITC amount affects a broad array of time use activities, focusing on the amount and nature of time spent with children. Using 2003–18 time use data, we find that federal and state EITC expansions increase maternal work time, reducing time devoted to home production, leisure, and time with children. However, almost none of the reduction comes from time devoted to “investment” activities, such as active learning and development activities.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jacob Bastian","Lance Lochner"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717729","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-97a5b52db4ad04ea","title":"Inference in Differences-in-Differences with Few Treated Groups and Heteroskedasticity","abstract":"We derive an inference method that works in differences-in-differences settings with few treated and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. As a leading example, we provide theoretical justification and empirical evidence that heteroskedasticity generated by variation in group sizes can invalidate existing inference methods, even in data sets with a large number of observations per group. In contrast, our inference method remains valid in this case. Our test can also be combined with feasible generalized least squares, providing a safeguard against misspecification of the serial correlation.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Bruno Ferman","Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00759","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-97ab4099e24732fd","title":"Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism","abstract":"I estimate the effect of access to food stamps on criminal recidivism. In 1996, a federal welfare reform imposed a lifetime ban from food stamps on convicted drug felons. Florida modified this ban, restricting it to drug traffickers who commit their offense on or after August 23, 1996. I exploit this sharp cutoff in a regression discontinuity design and find that the ban increases recidivism among drug traffickers. The increase is driven by financially motivated crimes, suggesting that the cut in benefits causes ex-convicts to return to crime to make up for the lost transfer income.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Cody Tuttle"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170490","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-97ba98be48e49f51","title":"Common Tongue: The Impact of Language on Educational Outcomes","abstract":"This article investigates the impact of official language policies on education using state formation in India. Colonial provinces consisted of some districts where the official language matched the district's language and some where it did not. Linguistically mismatched districts have 18.0 percent lower literacy rates and 20.1 percent lower college graduation rates, driven by difficulty in acquiring education due to a different medium of instruction in schools. Educational achievement caught up in mismatched districts after the 1956 reorganization of Indian states on linguistic lines, suggesting that political reorganization can mitigate the impact of mismatched language policies.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Tarun Jain"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000481","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-97c1c270c952d0d8","title":"Effects of ACA Medicaid Expansions on Health Insurance Coverage and Labor Supply","abstract":"We examined the effect of the expansion of Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act on health insurance coverage and labor supply of low-educated and low-income adults. We found that the Medicaid expansions were associated with large increases in Medicaid coverage, for example, 50 percent among childless adults, and corresponding decreases in the proportion uninsured. There was relatively little change in private insurance coverage, although the expansions tended to decrease such coverage slightly. In terms of labor supply, estimates indicated that the Medicaid expansions had little effect on work effort despite the substantial changes in health insurance coverage. Most estimates suggested that the expansions increased work effort, although not significantly.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Robert Kaestner","Bowen Garrett","Jiajia Chen","Anuj Gangopadhyaya","Caitlyn Fleming"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21993","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-97c439936bf9e0d0","title":"Carry a big stick, or no stick at all","abstract":"We investigate the effect of costly punishment in a trust game with endowment heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that the difference between the investor and the allocator’s initial endowments determines the effect of punishment on trust and trustworthiness. Punishment fosters trust only when the investor is wealthier than the allocator. Otherwise, punishment fails to promote trusting behavior. As for trustworthiness, the effect is just the opposite. The higher the difference between the investor and the allocator’s initial endowments, the less willing allocators are to pay back. We discuss the consistency of our findings with social preference models (like inequality aversion, reciprocity), the capacity of punishment (i.e., the deterrence hypothesis) and hidden costs of punishment (i.e., models of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation). Our results are hardly coherent with the first two (inequality aversion and deterrence), but roughly consistent with the latter.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Vicente Calabuig","Enrique Fatás","Gonzalo Olcina","Ismael Rodríguez-Lara"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2016.09.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-97c6534d7ebde8ce","title":"Gender differences in the skill content of jobs","abstract":"There is significant heterogeneity in actual skill use within occupations even though occupations are differentiated by the task workers should perform during work. Using data on 12 countries which are available both in the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey and International Social Survey Program, we show that women use their cognitive skills less than men even within the same occupation. The gap in skill intensity cannot be explained by differences in worker characteristics or in cognitive skills. Instead, we show that living in a partnership significantly increases the skill use of men compared with women. We argue that having a partner affects skill use through time allocation as the gender penalty of partnered women is halved once we control for working hours and hours spent on housework. Finally, we do not find evidence of workplace discrimination against women.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Rita Pető","Balázs Reizer"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00825-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-97c98ca7f53f27dd","title":"The strategic dimension of financing global public goods","abstract":"One challenge in addressing transboundary problems such as climate change is the incentive to free-ride. Transfers from multilateral compensation funds are often used to counteract such incentives, albeit with varying success. We examine how such funds can change the incentive to free-ride in a global public-goods game. In our game, self-interested countries choose their own preferred course, deciding their voluntary public good provision, whether to join a fund that offers compensation for providing the public good and the volume of compensatory payments. We show that (i) total public-good provision is higher when those contributing are given more compensation; and (ii) non-participation in the fund can be punished if the remaining members decrease their public-good provision sufficiently. We then examine three specific fund designs. In the first, the compensation paid to each country is equal to the percentage of above-average total costs for public-goods provision. This design is best able to deter free-riding and can establish the social optimum as the equilibrium. In the second, the compensation paid to each country is a function of the marginal cost of their public-good provision. Here there are significant incentives to free-ride. In the third case, the monetary resources provided by the fund are fixed, a design frequently encountered in international funds. This design is the one least able to deter free-riding.","wordCount":218,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Ulrike Kornek","Ottmar Edenhofer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103423","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-97cd6568b84f3832","title":"How does delegating decisions to communities affect the provision and use of a public service? Evidence from a field experiment in Bangladesh","abstract":"Most development practitioners would list engaging communities in the provision of public services among best practices for improving access. However, whether community participation enhances provision and use of public services relative to a non-participatory approach is largely unknown because few studies compare impacts when the same public service intervention is implemented with and without community participation. This field experiment compares three approaches to providing safe water in rural Bangladesh. Delegating decisions to the community increases use of safe water by about 80% relative to a top-down provider making the same decisions but only when the approach to delegating decisions limits elite influence.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Malgosia Madajewicz","Anna Tompsett","Md. Ahasan Habib"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102609","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-97f9a5a7f7d2e081","title":"Overeducation in the EU: Gender and regional dimension","abstract":"There is evidence of growing overeducation incidence in the EU from 2011 to 2018. The paper investigates factors associated with the overeducation risk in the EU, with a specific focus on gender and regional variables. The study tests Frank's theory of differential overqualification, which suggests that women are more likely to be overeducated than men, especially in small local labour markets. Although women's overeducation rates usually exceed those of men, the study's results show limited validity of Frank's model due to a nuanced relationship by which gender is linked to overeducation. They suggest that gender differentiates the overeducation risk in combination with care responsibilities, whilst easier access to childcare facilities is associated with a lower risk of overeducation among women in households with young children. Moreover, migrant women are found to be more at risk of overeducation, compared to both migrant men and non-migrants. Contrary to Frank's theory, the degree of urbanisation is found irrelevant for overeducation. Furthermore, the study shows the evidence of growing incidence of overeducation in the EU in 2011–2018.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Jan Baran"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102603","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-98113f605d77653a","title":"The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment","abstract":"This paper links the sharp drop in US manufacturing employment after 2000 to a change in US trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries more exposed to the change experience greater employment loss, increased imports from China, and higher entry by US importers and foreign-owned Chinese exporters. At the plant level, shifts toward less labor-intensive production and exposure to the policy via input-output linkages also contribute to the decline in employment. Results are robust to other potential explanations of employment loss, and there is no similar reaction in the European Union, where policy did not change.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Justin R. Pierce","Peter K. Schott"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20131578","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9813abd781d85307","title":"Does board gender diversity affect renewable energy consumption?","abstract":"This paper examines the effect of board gender diversity on renewable energy consumption. Using a panel of 11,677 firm-year observations from the USA for 2008–2016, we find a positive relationship between board gender diversity and renewable energy consumption. Moreover, boards require two or more women for women to have a significant impact on renewable energy consumption, consistent with the critical mass theory. Further, we document that the positive impact of female directors on renewable energy consumption stems from female independent rather than female executive directors. Finally, we find a positive effect of the interaction between renewable energy consumption and board gender diversity on firm financial performance. Our findings are robust to different identification strategies and estimation techniques.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Muhammad Atif","Mohammed Hossain","Md Samsul Alam","Marc Goergen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101665","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-981430833dcc7a7f","title":"Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?","abstract":"Long-run growth in many models is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore’s Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling of computer chip density is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. More generally, everywhere we look we find that ideas, and the exponential growth they imply, are getting harder to find.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Nicholas Bloom","Charles I. Jones","John Van Reenen","Michael A. Webb"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180338","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9819e569d52654ee","title":"Baumol's Cost Disease and the Sustainability of the Welfare State","abstract":"If productivity increases more slowly for services than for manufactured goods, then services suffer from Baumol's cost disease and tend to become relatively more costly over time. Since the welfare state in all countries is an important supplier of tax financed services, this translates into a financial pressure that seems to leave policymakers with a trilemma: increase tax distortions, cut spending or redistribute less. Under the assumptions underlying Baumol's cost disease, we show that these dismal implications are not warranted. The welfare state is sustainable, and there is even scope for Pareto improvements under Baumol's cost disease.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Torben M. Andersen","Claus Thustrup Kreiner"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12221","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-982753dc64ca7bb6","title":"Can Small Incentives Have Large Effects? The Impact of Taxes versus Bonuses on Disposable Bag Use","abstract":"This paper examines a simple element of financial incentive—design whether the incentive takes the form of a fee for bad behavior or a reward for good behavior—to determine if the framing of the incentive influences the policy’s effectiveness. I investigate the effect of two similar policies aimed at reducing disposable bag use: a $0.05 tax $0.05 bonus for reusable bag use. While the tax decreased disposable bag use by over 40 percentage points, the bonus generated virtually no effect on behavior. These results are consistent with a model of loss aversion.","wordCount":91,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Tatiana Homonoff"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150261","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9827b62c99f9437a","title":"Occupational hazards and social disability insurance","abstract":"Optimal SDI raises welfare for all agents, even those with zero disability risk. Using retrospective data, we introduce evidence that occupational exposure significantly affects disability risk. Incorporating this into a general equilibrium model, social disability insurance (SDI) affects welfare through (i) the classic, risk-sharing channel and (ii) a new channel of occupational reallocation. Both channels can increase welfare, but at the optimal SDI they are at odds. Welfare gains from additional risk-sharing are reduced by overly incentivizing workers to choose risky occupations. In a calibration, optimal SDI increases welfare by 6.3% relative to actuarially fair insurance, mostly due to risk sharing.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Amanda Michaud","David Wiczer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9827e2a05633ad57","title":"How Africans Shaped British Colonial Institutions: Evidence from Local Taxation","abstract":"The institutions that governed most of the rural population in British colonial Africa have been neglected in the literature on colonialism. We use new data on local governments, or “Native Authorities,” to present the first quantitative comparison of African institutions under indirect rule in four colonies in 1948: Nigeria, the Gold Coast, Nyasaland, and Kenya. Tax data show that Native Authorities’ capacity varied within and between colonies, due to both underlying economic inequalities and African elites’ relations with the colonial government. Our findings suggest that Africans had a bigger hand in shaping British colonial institutions than often acknowledged.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Jutta Bolt","Leigh Gardner"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000455","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9832ebe6c52b72a0","title":"Endogenous Production Networks","abstract":"We develop a tractable model of endogenous production networks. Each one of a number of products can be produced by combining labor and an endogenous subset of the other products as inputs. Different combinations of inputs generate (prespecified) levels of productivity and various distortions may affect costs and prices. We establish the existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium and provide comparative static results on how prices and endogenous technology/input choices (and thus the production network) respond to changes in parameters. These results show that improvements in technology (or reductions in distortions) spread throughout the economy via input–output linkages and reduce all prices, and under reasonable restrictions on the menu of production technologies, also lead to a denser production network. Using a dynamic version of the model, we establish that the endogenous evolution of the production network could be a powerful force towards sustained economic growth. At the root of this result is the fact that the arrival of a few new products expands the set of technological possibilities of all existing industries by a large amount—that is, if there are n products, the arrival of one more new product increases the combinations of inputs that each existing product can use from 2 n −1 to 2 n , thus enabling significantly more pronounced cost reductions from choice of input combinations. These cost reductions then spread to other industries via lower input prices and incentivize them to also adopt additional inputs.","wordCount":240,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Pablo Azar"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15899","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-983840b94a63723a","title":"A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics","abstract":"This article incorporates banks and banking panics within a conventional macroeconomic framework to analyse the dynamics of a financial crisis of the kind recently experienced. We are particularly interested in characterizing the sudden and discrete nature of banking panics as well as the circumstances that make an economy vulnerable to such panics in some instances but not in others. Having a conventional macroeconomic model allows us to study the channels by which the crisis affects real activity both qualitatively and quantitatively. In addition to modelling the financial collapse, we also introduce a belief driven credit boom that increases the susceptibility of the economy to a disruptive banking panic.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Mark Gertler","Nobuhiro Kiyotaki","Andrea Prestipino"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-983bac2272c52dd7","title":"Is Occupational Licensing a Barrier to Interstate Migration?","abstract":"Occupational licensure may limit the interstate movement of workers because it adds to the cost of moving between states. We analyze the interstate migration of 22 licensed occupations, proxying for the difficulty of the regulations by comparing state-specific licensed occupations to those with national licensing exams. Our empirical strategy also uses individuals who move a long distance, removing the influence of occupation characteristics and self-selection of migration-averse individuals into licensed occupations. Our estimates show that occupational licensing reduces interstate migration, but the magnitude of the effect can only account for a small part of the overall decline in recent decades.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Janna E. Johnson","Morris M. Kleiner"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170704","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9849c95f2d0e1810","title":"The timing and pattern of real wage divergence in pre‐industrial Europe: evidence from Germany, c. 1500–1850","abstract":"This study uses price information relating to 12 towns and wage information from 18 towns to develop a real wage index for unskilled urban labourers in Germany during the three‐and‐a‐half centuries preceding the onset of rapid industrialization. Combining the new series with information from other parts of Europe establishes two stages of real wage divergence during the seventeenth to nineteenth century. The first occurred in the middle of the seventeenth century when real wages in centres of trade and finance located on the rim of the North Sea rose far above the level prevailing in their hinterland. The second stage unfolded from the second quarter of the eighteenth century when the real wage in south England, northern and central Italy, and Germany began to diverge; Germany followed a middle path between the other two countries. The second commercial revolution, which improved business techniques and promoted Smithian growth, goes a long way towards accounting for this development.","wordCount":156,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Ulrich Pfister"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12419","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-984ff2b43ed21f5d","title":"Slow traffic, fast food: The effects of time lost on food store choice","abstract":"Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic congestion in Los Angeles County. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to frequent fast food restaurants and less likely to grocery shop. In our main model, a one standard deviation increase in traffic delay leads to a 1% increase in fast food visits, equivalent to 1.2 million more fast food visits in Los Angeles County per year. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Panka Bencsik","Lester Lusher","Rebecca Taylor"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103737","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-985b659ce2a46399","title":"How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?","abstract":"I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country characteristics. This autocracy gradient in the elasticity is greater when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on exaggeration are weaker. The results suggest that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by approximately 35%. Adjusting the data for manipulation leads to a more nuanced view on the recent economic success of autocracies.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Luis R. Martínez"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720458","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9875f5c727159593","title":"Trade and Inequality: From Theory to Estimation","abstract":"While neoclassical theory emphasizes the impact of trade on wage inequality between occupations and sectors, more recent theories of firm heterogeneity point to the impact of trade on wage dispersion within occupations and sectors. Using linked employer–employee data for Brazil, we show that much of overall wage inequality arises within sector–occupations and for workers with similar observable characteristics; this within component is driven by wage dispersion between firms; and wage dispersion between firms is related to firm employment size and trade participation. We then extend the heterogenous-firm model of trade and inequality from Helpman et al. (2010) and estimate it with Brazilian data. We show that the estimated model provides a close approximation to the observed distribution of wages and employment. We use the estimated model to undertake counterfactuals, in which we find sizable effects of trade on wage inequality.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Elhanan Helpman","Oleg Itskhoki","Marc-Andreas Muendler","Stephen J. Redding"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9884114fcd99961a","title":"Knockin’ on H(e)aven’s door. Financial crises and offshore wealth","abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between financial crises in developing countries and variation of bank deposits in offshore financial centers. Using a stacked difference-in-differences estimator, we find that three years after the onset of the crisis, bank deposits in tax havens increase by almost 30 percent. The effect appears independent of tax rates and is primarily driven by countries with with weak institutions. We add to the literature on tax havens as we find that they not only facilitate tax evasion and corruption in “normal times”, but also absorb resources during financial crises, when most needed.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Silvia Marchesi","Giovanna Marcolongo"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104175","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-988f3930da572880","title":"Reserve currency and the volatility of clean energy stocks: The role of uncertainty","abstract":"Clean energy firms are among the most risky firms to invest in. Hence, it is essential to have a clear understanding of the risk profile of clean energy stocks. The main purpose of this study is to examine how changes in the reserve currency (US dollar) value affect the volatility of clean energy stocks in the absence/presence of uncertainty information. To this end, the volatility of clean energy stocks is first obtained by considering uncertainty information in the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) volatility estimates. Then, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, this study investigates the effect of reserve currency (US dollar) value fluctuations on the volatility of clean energy stocks. Controlling for monetary conditions, financial stress, and business cycle fluctuations, the study finds that, in the absence of uncertainty information, the volatility of clean energy stocks is not influenced by US dollar fluctuations. However, an appreciation of the US dollar against major foreign currencies significantly increases the volatility of clean energy stocks when uncertainties about economic policy, exchange rate market, and gold market are included in the picture. We find that economic uncertainty mediates the link between reserve currency and the volatility of clean energy stocks. The results shed more light on the risk profile of clean energy stocks and suggest the need for predictable and stable policies to increase the attractiveness of clean energy stocks.","wordCount":229,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Barış Kocaarslan","Uğur Soytaş"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105645","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-989126509fbbc0ba","title":"The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications","abstract":"We document the evolution of market power based on firm-level data for the U.S. economy since 1955. We measure both markups and profitability. In 1980, aggregate markups start to rise from 21% above marginal cost to 61% now. The increase is driven mainly by the upper tail of the markup distribution: the upper percentiles have increased sharply. Quite strikingly, the median is unchanged. In addition to the fattening upper tail of the markup distribution, there is reallocation of market share from low- to high-markup firms. This rise occurs mostly within industry. We also find an increase in the average profit rate from 1% to 8%. Although there is also an increase in overhead costs, the markup increase is in excess of overhead. We discuss the macroeconomic implications of an increase in average market power, which can account for a number of secular trends in the past four decades, most notably the declining labor and capital shares as well as the decrease in labor market dynamism.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jan De Loecker","Jan Eeckhout","Gabriel Unger"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz041","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-98956b125092473c","title":"Palm oil and the politics of deforestation in Indonesia","abstract":"This paper studies the interactions between political and economic incentives to foster forest conversion in Indonesian districts. Using a district–level panel data set from 2001 to 2016, we analyze variation in remotely sensed forest losses as well as measures of land-use licensing. We link these outcomes to political incentives arising before idiosyncratically–timed local mayoral elections as well as to price exposure measures based on oil palm soil suitability combined with global price variations for palm oil. Empirical results document increases of about 4% in deforestation in the year prior to local mayoral elections on average. Additionally, palm oil plays a crucial role in driving deforestation dynamics. Deforestation rates increase by 7% in places that experience a one standard deviation increase in local price exposure, but no upcoming elections. These effects are amplified to almost 19% larger forest losses in places that experience pre-election years and a standard deviation higher palm oil price exposure at the same time. We thus find clear evidence for economic and political incentives reinforcing each other as drivers of forest loss and land conversion for oil palm cultivation.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Elías Cisneros","Krisztina Kis‐Katos","Nunung Nuryartono"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102453","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-98a35714334c016f","title":"Data-intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from AI Firms in China","abstract":"Developing artificial intelligence (AI) technology requires data. In many domains, government data far exceed in magnitude and scope data collected by the private sector, and AI firms often gain access to such data when providing services to the state. We argue that such access can stimulate commercial AI innovation in part because data and trained algorithms are shareable across government and commercial uses. We gather comprehensive information on firms and public security procurement contracts in China’s facial recognition AI industry. We quantify the data accessible through contracts by measuring public security agencies’ capacity to collect surveillance video. Using a triple-differences strategy, we find that data-rich contracts, compared to data-scarce ones, lead recipient firms to develop significantly and substantially more commercial AI software. Our analysis suggests a contribution of government data to the rise of China’s facial recognition AI firms, and that states’ data collection and provision policies could shape AI innovation.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Martin Beraja","David Y. Yang","Noam Yuchtman"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac056","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-98ab56187578fba4","title":"Beyond Income: What Else Predicts Very Low Food Security Among Children?","abstract":"We examine characteristics and correlates of households in the United States that are most likely to have children at risk of inadequate nutrition—those that report very low food security (VLFS) among their children. Using 11 years of the Current Population Survey, plus data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we describe these households in great detail with the goal of trying to understand how these households differ from households without such severe food insecurity. While household income certainly plays an important role in determining VLFS among children, we find that even after flexibly controlling for income-to-poverty rates some household characteristics and patterns of program participation have important additional explanatory power. Finally, our examination of the NHANES data suggests an important role for both mental and physical health of adults in the household in determining the food security status of children.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Patricia M. Anderson","Kristin F. Butcher","Hilary Hoynes","Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-98ad2c1c213e30f4","title":"Unexpected school reform: Academisation of primary schools in England","abstract":"The UK change of government in 2010 provoked a large structural change in the English education landscape. Unexpectedly, the new government offered primary schools the chance to have ‘the freedom and the power to take control of their own destiny’, with better performing schools given a green light to fast track convert to become an academy school. In England, schools that become academies have more freedom over many ways in which they operate, including curriculum design, budgets, staffing issues and the shape of the academic year. However, the change to allow primary school academisation has been controversial. This paper reports estimates of the causal effect of academy enrolment on primary school pupils. While the international literature provides growing evidence on the effect of school autonomy in a variety of contexts, little is known about the effect of autonomy on primary schools (which are typically much smaller than secondary schools) and in contexts where the converting school is not deemed to be failing or disadvantaged. The key findings are that English primary schools did change their mode of operation after the exogenous policy change, utilising more autonomy and changing spending behaviour, but this did not lead to improved pupil performance.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Andrew Eyles","Stephen Machin","Sandra McNally"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.09.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-98b271d85b5e2022","title":"The source of information in prices and investment-price sensitivity","abstract":"This paper shows that real decisions depend not only on the total amount of information in prices, but the source of this information—a manager learns from prices when they contain information not possessed by him. We use the staggered enforcement of insider trading laws across 27 countries as a shock to the source of information that leaves total information unchanged: enforcement reduces (increases) managers’ (outsiders’) contribution to the stock price. Consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model, enforcement increases investment-q sensitivity, even when controlling for total price informativeness. The effect is larger in industries where learning is likely to be stronger, and in emerging countries where outsider information acquisition rises most post-enforcement. Enforcement does not increase the sensitivity of investment to cash flow, a non-price measure of investment opportunities. These findings suggest that extant measures of price efficiency should be rethought when evaluating real efficiency. More broadly, our paper provides causal evidence that managers learn from prices, by using a shock to price informativeness.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Alex Edmans","Sudarshan Jayaraman","Jan Schneemeier"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.06.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-98cb5142692b7552","title":"Permutation tests for experimental data","abstract":"This article surveys the use of nonparametric permutation tests for analyzing experimental data. The permutation approach, which involves randomizing or permuting features of the observed data, is a flexible way to draw statistical inferences in common experimental settings. It is particularly valuable when few independent observations are available, a frequent occurrence in controlled experiments in economics and other social sciences. The permutation method constitutes a comprehensive approach to statistical inference. In two-treatment testing, permutation concepts underlie popular rank-based tests, like the Wilcoxon and Mann-Whitney tests. But permutation reasoning is not limited to ordinal contexts. Analogous tests can be constructed from the permutation of measured observations-as opposed to rank-transformed observations-and we argue that these tests should often be preferred. Permutation tests can also be used with multiple treatments, with ordered hypothesized effects, and with complex data-structures, such as hypothesis testing in the presence of nuisance variables. Drawing examples from the experimental economics literature, we illustrate how permutation testing solves common challenges. Our aim is to help experimenters move beyond the handful of overused tests in play today and to instead see permutation testing as a flexible framework for statistical inference. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10683-023-09799-6.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Charles A. Holt","Sean Sullivan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-023-09799-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-98d28441bf677367","title":"Financial intermediary leverage and monetary policy transmission","abstract":"Monetary policy is more effective when financial intermediaries have a higher equity share in their total assets. When the leverage ratio is one standard deviation below average, the marginal effect of a monetary policy shock on realized S&P 500 returns is 89% larger in an event window study. In a VAR exercise, the impulse responses of real variables to a given monetary policy shock also have larger magnitudes when financial intermediaries have a lower leverage. The financial intermediary leverage is counter-cyclical, explaining why monetary policy is less effective during recessions as found in the literature.","wordCount":95,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Zehao Li"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104080","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-98e1b0db9e2fa2d1","title":"Information Transmission under the Shadow of the Future: An Experiment","abstract":"We experimentally examine how information transmission functions in an ongoing relationship. Where the one-shot cheap-talk literature documents substantial overcommunication and preferences for honesty, the outcomes in our repeated setting are more consistent with uninformative babbling outcomes. This is particularly surprising, as honest revelation is supportable as an equilibrium outcome in our repeated setting. We show that inefficient outcomes are driven by a coordination failure on how to distribute the gains from information sharing. However, when agents can coordinate on the payment of an “information rent,” honest revelation emerges.","wordCount":88,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Alistair J. Wilson","Emanuel Vespa"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170403","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-98eff32bc91b2371","title":"Age at Arrival and Assimilation During the Age of Mass Migration","abstract":"We estimate the effect of age at arrival for immigrant outcomes with a new dataset of arrivals linked to the 1940 U.S. Census. Using within-family variation, we find that arriving at an older age, or having more childhood exposure to the European environment, led to a more negative wage gap relative to the native born. Infant arrivals had a positive wage gap relative to natives, in contrast to a negative gap for teenage arrivals. Therefore, a key determinant of immigrant outcomes during the Age of Mass Migration was the country of residence during critical periods of childhood development.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Rohan Alexander","Zachary Ward"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000335","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9909f4f0ca142204","title":"Occupy government: Democracy and the dynamics of personnel decisions and public finances","abstract":"This work investigates causes and consequences of patronage in Brazilian cities since the country’s re-democratization. It uses five election cycles and compares the hiring of winning and losing party members in close elections to causally estimate patronage. Cities increase their shares of civil servants affiliated with winning political coalitions by 3 percentage points during a mayoral term, and also increase their wage shares by 4 percentage points. Overall, patronage explains slightly more than 50% of the large increase in politically affiliated public employees since re-democratization. Moreover, we find that federal transfers and lack of accountability are important determinants of patronage.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Klênio Barbosa","Fernando Ferreira"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104856","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-99102b9015990037","title":"Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls","abstract":"In this paper, we investigate the use of interactive effect or linear factor models in regional policy evaluation. We contrast treatment effect estimates obtained using Bai (2009) with those obtained using difference in differences and synthetic controls (Abadie and coauthors). We show that difference in differences are generically biased, and we derive support conditions for synthetic controls. We construct Monte Carlo experiments to compare these estimation methods in small samples. As an empirical illustration, we provide an evaluation of the impact on local unemployment of an enterprise zone policy implemented in France in the 1990s.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Laurent Gobillon","Thierry Magnac"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00537","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-991f281acccddf6a","title":"Health at Birth, Parental Investments, and Academic Outcomes","abstract":"This paper explores the relationship among health at birth, academic outcomes, and the potential role of parental investments using administrative panel data from Chile. Using detailed data on parental investments, we find that investments are compensatory regarding initial health, but not across twins. Twins fixed effects models estimate a persistent effect of birth weight on academic achievement, while ordinary least squares and siblings fixed effects models find this relationship to decline over time. We view these findings in the context of a model of human capital accumulation where parental investments respond to initial endowments and spill over to siblings.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Prashant Bharadwaj","Juan Eberhard","Christopher Neilson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/695616","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-99437c04d78ca109","title":"Dinner with Bayes: On the revision of risk beliefs","abstract":"We study how people form and revise health risk beliefs based on food safety information. In an online experiment, subjects stated their perceived risk of contracting a foodborne illness before and after receiving information about the population average risk and the eating habits of the average consumer. Precautionary effort in handling and preparing food reduced prior risk beliefs, but did not affect the belief revision process. About one quarter of subjects either fully ignored the information provided or revised their beliefs inconsistently with the Bayesian learning hypothesis. We find several factors related to the subjects' numerical skills that explain information refusal and inconsistent belief revisions and discuss them in the context of health risks.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Christoph M. Rheinberger","James K. Hammitt"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9294-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9953e669020c0aac","title":"The effect of legislated tax changes on the trade balance: Empirical evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom","abstract":"This study uses a narrative account of quarterly discretionary changes in tax liabilities from 1974Q4 to 2018Q2 in a VAR setting to examine whether legislative tax changes affect the trade balance in the US, Germany, and the UK. Six different types of legislative tax changes are considered, including indirect tax changes, personal income tax changes, and business tax changes. The results show that, in general, reductions in aggregated tax liabilities tend to reduce exports in the US and the UK, whereas imports tend to increase, leading to a fall in the net-exports-to-GDP ratio. However, this pattern does not necessarily hold for disaggregated tax changes. Moreover, the results for Germany differ from those for the US and the UK. Overall, the economic magnitude of the estimated effects of tax changes on trade variables is relatively small.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Bernd Hayo","Sascha Mierzwa"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103564","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9964ba18d5097df0","title":"The superstar effect on perceived performance in professional football: An online experiment","abstract":"We conduct a novel experiment to investigate whether football superstars consistently receive more favorable evaluations than non-superstars. Engaging 500 participants from Prolific, we randomly assign them to evaluate the same football videos with either visible or obscured players. In the control group, where players are visible, superstars receive lower performance ratings than non-superstars, challenging common perceptions. This trend is more intensified in the treatment group, where obscured identities result in even lower ratings for superstars, relative to non-superstars, suggesting a diminished superstar premium. These findings provide causal experimental evidence contributing to the literature on evaluation bias and the superstar effect.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Yu Pan","Marco Henriques Pereira","Carlos Gómez‐González","Helmut Dietl"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102776","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-996b30e88b9ac026","title":"Railways, Development, and Literacy in India","abstract":"We study the effect of railroads, the single largest public investment in colonial India, on human capital. Using district-level data on literacy and two different identification strategies, we find railroads had positive effects on literacy, in particular on male and English literacy. We show that railroads increased literacy by raising secondary and elite primary schooling, rather than vernacular primary schooling. Our mediation analysis suggests that non-agricultural income, urbanization, and opportunities for skilled employment are important mechanisms, while agricultural income is not.","wordCount":81,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Latika Chaudhary","James Fenske"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050723000372","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-996e061fcd31616b","title":"The effects of EU-funded enterprise grants on firms and workers","abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of non-repayable enterprise grants on Hungarian SMEs, financed from the European Union’s Structural and Cohesion Funds between 2004–2014. Comparing firm- and worker level outcomes of successful and unsuccessful applicants, we find that subsidized firms increase their employment, sales, capital-to-labor ratio and labor productivity, but we find conflicting results for total factor productivity. The skill composition of workers is not affected by the grant, but wages increase, although only for skilled workers and especially managers. These results suggest that the program generates additional investment, but that investment leads to limited technology upgrading at best. According to our simple calculations, the cost of creating an additional job with this program was equivalent to 3 years average wage and each year’s grants contributed to aggregate SME labor productivity growth by 0.2-0.6 percentage points — with an annual cost often in excess of 1 percent of total SME value added.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Balázs Muraközy","Álmos Telegdy"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9979b9ae87a1ac4c","title":"Local Environmental Quality and Interjurisdictional Spillovers","abstract":"We investigate how the quality of environmental public goods varies with the number of local governments, and show how this relationship depends on the existence of spillovers across jurisdictions. Exploiting exogenous variation in the natural topography of the USA, we show that metropolitan areas with more local governments have significantly lower air quality and significantly higher concentrations of toxic air pollutants that cause cancer and respiratory disease. By contrast, drinking water quality—a public good with relatively few spillovers—does not vary with the number of governments. Further, we find that areas with more local governments tend to have a higher density of employment in heavily polluting industries like electric power generation and chemical manufacturing, even after controlling for population density. This is consistent with jurisdictional fragmentation leading to the presence of more polluting industries.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Economica","authors":["John William Hatfield","Katrina Kosec"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12277","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-997e6353d0a43024","title":"Platform competition with endogenous homing","abstract":"We consider two‐sided markets in which consumers and firms endogenously determine whether they single‐home, multi‐home, or exit the market. We find that the competitive bottleneck allocation in which consumers single‐home and firms multi‐home is always an equilibrium. In addition, we find equilibria with multi‐homing and single‐homing on each side of the market. However, unlike the standard pricing result where the side that multi‐homes faces higher prices, we find that lower prices coincide with multi‐homing: agents find multi‐homing more attractive when faced with lower prices. We also show that endogenous homing can induce straddle pricing which deters price undercutting between platforms.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Thomas D. Jeitschko","Mark J. Tremblay"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12457","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-998565d1d96e42b7","title":"Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment","abstract":"Home price expectations are believed to play an important role in housing dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of how they are formed and how they affect behaviour. Using a unique “information experiment” embedded in an online survey, this article investigates how consumers’ home price expectations respond to past home price growth, and how they impact investment decisions. After eliciting respondents’ priors about past and future local home price changes, we present a random subset of them with factual information about past (one- or five-year) changes, and then re-elicit expectations. This unique “panel” data allows us to identify causal effects of the information, and provides insights on the expectation formation process. We find that, on average, year-ahead home price expectations are revised in a way consistent with short-term momentum in home price growth, though respondents tend to underpredict the strength of momentum. Revisions of longer-term expectations show that respondents do not expect the empirically-occurring mean reversion in home price growth. These patterns are in line with recent behavioural models of housing cycles. Finally, we show that home price expectations causally affect investment decisions in a portfolio choice experiment embedded in the survey.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Luis Armona","Andreas Fuster","Basit Zafar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy038","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9989214bf8e67d9b","title":"Cultural relativity in consumers' rates of adoption of artificial intelligence","abstract":"Artificial intelligence (AI) is a cost‐efficient innovation that challenges customers' consumption patterns and fears of uncertainty. This study assesses whether the likelihood that consumers adopt AI in banking services depends on tastes across different cultures. We propose a culturally‐augmented Arrow–Bilir–Sorensen model to assess the propensity that consumers use AI. Analyses of a unique ING Bank dataset encompassing 11,000 respondents from 11 countries reveal that success rates for the diffusion of robo‐advisory financial services in retail banking vary substantially due to the cultural boundedness of choice. This bias seems to be associated with social capital rather than the fear of novelty.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Annie Tubadji","Toby Denney","Don J. Webber"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12978","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9997360dbbdddcfe","title":"Mission of the company, prosocial attitudes and job preferences: A discrete choice experiment","abstract":"We conduct a discrete choice experiment to investigate how the mission of high-tech companies affects job attractiveness and contributes to self-selection of science and engineering graduates who differ in prosocial attitudes. We characterize mission by whether or not the company combines its profit motive with a mission on innovation or corporate social responsibility (CSR). Furthermore, we vary job design (e.g. autonomy) and contractible job attributes (e.g. job security). We find that companies with a mission on innovation or CSR are considered more attractive. Women and individuals who are more altruistic and less competitive feel particularly attracted to such companies.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Arjan Non","Ingrid M. T. Rohde","Andries de Grip","Thomas Dohmen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102087","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-99cd5160b98eb5d2","title":"The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction","abstract":"Much of the extant literature predicts market returns with “simple” models that use only a few parameters. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we theoretically prove that simple models severely understate return predictability compared to “complex” models in which the number of parameters exceeds the number of observations. We empirically document the virtue of complexity in U.S. equity market return prediction. Our findings establish the rationale for modeling expected returns through machine learning.","wordCount":71,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Bryan Kelly","Semyon Malamud","Kangying Zhou"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13298","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-99dd9e604919b2d1","title":"War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe","abstract":"This paper contributes to the debate on Europe's modern economic growth using the statistical concept of long-range dependence. Different regimes, defined as periods between two successive endogenously estimated structural shocks, matched episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twentieth century's world wars. Our findings confirm that the Black Death often resulted in higher income levels but reject the view of a uniform long-term response to the Plague. In fact, we find a negative impact on incomes in non-Malthusian economies. In the North Sea Area (Britain and the Netherlands), the Plague was followed by positive trend growth in output per capita and population, heralding the onset of modern economic growth and the Great Divergence in Eurasia.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Leandro Prados de la Escosura","Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101467","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-99deb5f7bce62702","title":"How much of the labor in African agriculture is provided by women?","abstract":"The contribution of women to labor in African agriculture is regularly quoted in the range of 60-80%. Using individual, plot-level labor input data from nationally representative household surveys across six Sub-Saharan African countries, this study estimates the average female labor share in crop production at 40%. It is slightly above 50% in Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda, and substantially lower in Nigeria (37%), Ethiopia (29%), and Niger (24%). There are no systematic differences across crops and activities, but female labor shares tend to be higher in households where women own a larger share of the land and when they are more educated. Controlling for the gender and knowledge profile of the respondents does not meaningfully change the predicted female labor shares. The findings question prevailing assertions regarding substantial gains in aggregate crop output as a result of increasing female agricultural productivity.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Amparo Palacios-López","Luc Christiaensen","Talip Kilic"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-99e2eeb45b29ace1","title":"Optimal siting of onshore wind turbines: Local disamenities matter","abstract":"The deployment of onshore wind power is an important means to mitigate climate change. However, wind turbines also produce local disamenities to residents living next to them, mainly due to noise emissions and visual effects. Our paper analyzes how the presence of local disamenities affects the socially optimal siting of onshore wind power. The analysis builds on a spatial optimization model using geographical information system (GIS) data for more than 100,000 potential sites in Germany. Our results indicate a major spatial trade-off between the goals of minimizing electricity generation and disamenity costs. Considering disamenity costs substantially alters – and in fact dominates – the socially optimal spatial allocation of wind power deployment. This is because in Germany a) the spatial correlation between generation costs and disamenity costs is only moderately positive, and b) disamenity costs exhibit a larger spatial heterogeneity than the generation costs. These results are robust to variations in the level and slope of the disamenity cost function that we assume for the modeling. Our findings emphasize the importance of supplementing support schemes for wind power deployment with approaches that address local disamenties, e.g., compensation payments to local residents or differentiated setback distances to settlements.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Paul Lehmann","Felix Reutter","Philip Tafarte"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101386","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-99fec23b3fc7ef8f","title":"The Surprising Impacts of Unionization: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data","abstract":"This study presents new evidence on the impacts of unionization using administrative data matching workers to employers in a regression discontinuity design. Close union elections exhibit substantial nonrandom selection or manipulation. Estimates accounting for this selection show that unionization substantially decreases payroll, employment, average worker earnings, and establishment survival. Payroll and earnings decreases are driven by composition changes, with older and higher-paid workers leaving unionizing establishments and younger workers joining or staying. Worker-level effects on earnings are small and are reconciled with large negative establishment-level effects in a model of employer and employee selection into union jobs.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Brigham Frandsen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711852","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a01451e8279a3ce","title":"Multigenerational Mobility Among Males in India","abstract":"Most studies of intergenerational mobility focus on adjacent generations, and there is limited knowledge about multigenerational mobility—status transmission across three generations. We examine multigenerational educational and occupational mobility in India, using a nationally representative data set the India Human Development Survey that contains information about education and occupation for three generations. We find that mobility has increased over generations for education, but not for occupation. We also find that there are stark differences across social groups, with individuals belonging to socially disadvantaged communities lagging behind in social progress. Multigenerational mobility for Muslims in education and occupation has decreased in comparison to Hindus over the three generations. While we find that there is an increase in educational mobility for other disadvantaged groups such as Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes compared to General Castes, we do not find evidence of increased occupational mobility over the three generations.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Anustup Kundu","Kunal Sen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12568","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9a01e6b9e2ca6e42","title":"Dynamics in stochastic evolutionary models","abstract":"We characterize transitions between stochastically stable states and relative ergodic probabilities in the theory of the evolution of conventions. We give an application to the fall of hegemonies in the evolutionary theory of institutions and conflict, and illustrate the theory with the fall of the Qing dynasty and the rise of communism in China.","wordCount":54,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["David K. Levine","Salvatore Modica"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1978","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-9a160c598899158b","title":"Simulating mergers in a vertical supply chain with bargaining","abstract":"We model a two‐level supply chain where Nash bargaining occurs upstream and firms compete in a logit setting downstream, either via Bertrand price setting or an auction. The parameters can be calibrated with a discrete set of data on prices, margins, and market shares, facilitating use by antitrust practitioners. We perform numerical simulations to identify cases where modelling the full vertical structure is important and where harm is likely. We also examine the thwarted Anthem/Cigna merger and show how the model weighs the various arguments made by the government and the defendants.","wordCount":92,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Gloria Sheu","Charles Taragin"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12385","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a16cf436d769b63","title":"Analyst Career Concerns, Effort Allocation, and Firms’ Information Environment","abstract":"Analysts strategically allocate more effort to portfolio firms that are relatively more important to their careers. Thus, the other firms the analysts cover indirectly affect a firm’s information environment. Controlling for analyst and firm characteristics, we find that an analyst makes more accurate, frequent, and informative earnings forecasts and recommendations for firms ranked higher within her portfolio based on proxies for importance to institutions. A firm’s relative rank widely varies across analysts, but its information environment improves when a larger proportion of analysts consider it to be relatively important. Analysts experience more favorable career outcomes when strategically allocating their efforts.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jarrad Harford","Feng Jiang","Rong Wang","Fei Xie"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy101","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a291e311041a9bd","title":"Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate","abstract":"We develop a theory that links the U.S. dollar's valuation in FX markets to the convenience yield that foreign investors derive from holding U.S. safe assets. We show that this convenience yield can be inferred from the Treasury basis, the yield gap between U.S. government and currency‐hedged foreign government bonds. Consistent with the theory, a widening of the basis coincides with an immediate appreciation and a subsequent depreciation of the dollar. Our results lend empirical support to models that impute a special role to the United States as the world's provider of safe assets and the dollar as the world's reserve currency.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Zhengyang Jiang","Arvind Krishnamurthy","Hanno Lustig"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13003","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a2c811ca4fae628","title":"Train drain? Access to foreign workers and firms’ provision of training","abstract":"Does better access to foreign workers reduce firms’ willingness to provide general skills training? We analyze how the opening of the Swiss labor market to workers from the European Union affected the number of apprenticeships that firms provide. We exploit that the availability of foreign workers increased more in firms close to the border because they gained unrestricted access to cross-border workers from Switzerland’s neighboring countries. Our Difference-in-Differences estimates suggest that firm-provided training to unskilled workers and access to foreign workers are not necessarily substitutes: opening the borders did not have a statistically significant effect on apprenticeship provision. Using unique data on firms’ costs and motives to train apprentices, we show that the greater availability of foreign workers reduced firms’ incentive to train because hiring skilled workers externally became cheaper, among others because new hires became more productive from the start. Positive impacts on firm growth worked in the opposite direction.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Maria Esther Oswald‐Egg","Michael Siegenthaler"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102436","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9a3058e30dc4329c","title":"Knowledge Diffusion, Trade, and Innovation across Countries and Sectors","abstract":"This paper provides a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. This framework is used to study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. The model is calibrated to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in production, innovation efficiency, and knowledge spillovers. The counterfactual analysis shows that a reduction in trade costs induces a reallocation of R&D and comparative advantage across sectors. Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion amplifies the specialization effects of trade-induced R&D reallocation, becoming an important source of welfare.","wordCount":105,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Jie Cai","Nan Li","Ana María Santacreu"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200084","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a33df64f7662bbf","title":"International housing markets, unconventional monetary policy, and the zero lower bound","abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the relationship between unconventional monetary policy (UMP), measured through shadow interest rates, and housing markets for the USA, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the Euro Area using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models. Our findings suggest that the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the housing market has not changed with the implementation of quantitative easing or forward guidance for most economies considered. A counterfactual exercise provides some evidence that UMP has been particularly successful in dampening the consequences of the financial crisis on housing markets in the USA, while the effects are more muted in the remaining countries considered.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Florian Huber","María Teresa Punzi"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000494","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a374aae11f30708","title":"Indexing Out of Poverty? Fiscal Drag and Benefit Erosion in Cross‐National Perspective","abstract":"We assess how tax‐benefit policy developments in 2001–11 affected the household income distribution in seven EU countries. We use the standard microsimulation‐based decomposition method, separating further the effect of structural policy changes and the uprating of monetary parameters, which allows us to measure the extent of fiscal drag and benefit erosion in practice. The results show that despite different fiscal effects, policies overall mostly reduced poverty and inequality and both types of policy developments had sizeable effects on the income distribution. We also find that the uprating of monetary parameters not only had a positive effect on household incomes, meaning fiscal drag and benefit erosion were avoided, but generally also contributed more to poverty and inequality reduction than structural policy reforms.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Alari Paulus","Holly Sutherland","Iva Tasseva"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12413","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9a3d18b9c263f24a","title":"Do we need a ‘circular society’? Competing narratives of the circular economy in the French food sector","abstract":"How a circular economy (CE) can promote social equity remains largely unknown. We analyze how CE narratives affect interpretations of problems and actions on waste in the French food sector, particularly around the Loi Garot. We identify CE narratives that challenge the sector's previous discourse of a social and solidarity economy (SSE) by advancing market-focused solutions and actors. We show how these narratives create solutions that do not automatically serve social goals and demand food waste instead of mitigating it. Our results suggest that the new CE narratives may either open sector debates to more viable solutions for limited access to food or exacerbate the social and environmental problems of food waste. If we want CE policies and initiatives to address pressing issues of distributive justice and equality of opportunity that often underpin wastefulness, CE narratives need to foreground these issues. A possible way to do so could be to develope narratives for a ‘circular society’ instead of a ‘circular economy’. We suggest future research to explore options for such new narratives, emphasizing problems of social equity and offering visions for a ‘circular society’.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Sina Leipold","Kaja Weldner","Marius Hohl"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107086","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9a3d5e5ff52befa3","title":"Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for consumption in the US","abstract":"Recently developed econometric methods, that are robust to weak instruments and exploit information in possible structural changes, are applied to study the Euler equation for consumption using aggregate US post-war data. Several extensions to the baseline Euler equation model are investigated. The results are insensitive to using linear versus nonlinear specifications, different instruments or different consumption data, but they are very sensitive to asset returns. With risk-free returns, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is tightly estimated around zero, while with stock market returns, it is significantly positive but very imprecisely estimated. There is no evidence of parameter instability.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Guido Ascari","Leandro M. Magnusson","Sophocles Mavroeidis"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.12.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9a4368d278e57ef5","title":"Who really benefits from export processing zones? Evidence from Nicaraguan municipalities","abstract":"Export processing zones are popular trade policies in developing countries, but there is limited empirical evidence on their local effects. This paper examines the impact of their establishment on the levels of per capita expenditure across Nicaraguan municipalities for the period 1993 to 2009. Using the time and cross-section variation of park openings in a difference-in-differences framework, I find that on average consumption levels increased by 10 to 12% in treated municipalities. Yet, average effects mask significant disparities across the expenditure distribution. The results suggest that the policy benefited the upper-tail the most: expenditure levels increased by up to 25% at the 90th percentile. At the opposite of the distribution, only the bottom decile registered a small positive effect of close to 10% across the period.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Nathalie Picarelli"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2016.05.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9a4f1f1dd40fd4f2","title":"Informal sector misallocation","abstract":"A quantitative framework of firm dynamics is developed where the size of the informal sector is determined by financial constraints and the burden of taxation. Improving access to credit for formal sector firms increases aggregate total factor productivity and output while reducing the size of the informal sector. Introducing size-dependent taxes reduces the gains from financial development as they incentivize firms to produce at a relatively limited scale. The aggregate effects of eliminating formal sector registration costs are positive but modest relative to previous theoretical models and the gains generated by financial development, and consistent with empirical evidence based on micro-level data.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Bernabé López-Martín"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517001055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a57a0a2cdbd2d53","title":"The Role of Proxy Advisory Firms: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design","abstract":"Proxy advisory firms have become important players in corporate governance, but the extent of their influence over shareholder votes is debated. We estimate the effect of Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommendations on voting outcomes by exploiting exogenous variation in ISS recommendations generated by a cutoff rule in ISS voting guidelines. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that from 2010 to 2011, a negative ISS recommendation on a say-on-pay proposal leads to a 25 percentage point reduction in say-on-pay voting support, suggesting a strong influence over shareholder votes. We also use our setting to examine the informational role of ISS recommendations.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Nadya Malenko","Yao Shen"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw070","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9a92eed725c36ffd","title":"“Tackling the Substance Use Disorder Crisis: The Role of Access to Treatment Facilities”","abstract":"The continuing drug overdose crisis in the U.S. has highlighted the urgent need for greater access to treatment. This paper examines the impact of openings and closings of substance use disorder treatment facilities in New Jersey on emergency room visits for substance use disorder issues among nearby residents. We find that drug-related ER visits increase by 7.4% after a facility closure and decrease by 6.5% after an opening. The effects are smaller for the middle aged than for either younger or older people, and are also somewhat larger for Black residents, and for those on Medicaid. The results suggest that expanding access to treatment results in significant reductions in morbidity related to drugs.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Adriana Corredor‐Waldron","Janet Currie"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102579","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9a95c1131d5ee98d","title":"The impact of late payments on SMEs’ access to finance: Evidence from credit rationing and loan terms","abstract":"Late payments represent a significant threat to the financial resilience of European SMEs, with wide-reaching implications. While existing literature highlights the detrimental impact of late payments on SME liquidity and insolvency risk, the specific effects on credit availability and loan terms remain underexplored. Using unique firm-level data from 11 European countries over the period 2019–2023, we examine how late payments impact SMEs’ access to finance. We document that SMEs experiencing frequent or occasional late payments face difficulties in accessing finance. The primary mechanism is credit rationing, as banks potentially view cash flow uncertainty as an increased risk, prompting them to restrict lending. The increased risks perceived by banks translate into less favorable loan conditions for SMEs facing late payments, such as higher interest rates and smaller loan amounts. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening and enforcing the Late Payments Directive to address the persistent issue of late payments.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Orçun Kaya"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106896","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9a9c5483d40073f2","title":"Male and female selection effects on gender wage gaps in three countries","abstract":"A vast literature on gender wage gaps has examined the importance of selection into employment. However, most analyses have focused only on female labour force participation and gaps at the median. The Great Recession questions this approach because of the major shift in male employment that it implied. This paper uses the methodology proposed by Arellano and Bonhomme (2017) to estimate a quantile selection model over the period 2007–2018. Using a tax and benefit microsimulation model, I compute an instrument capturing both male and female decisions to participate in the labour market: the potential out-of-work income. Since my instrument is crucially determined by the welfare state, I consider three countries with notably different benefit systems – the UK, France and Finland. My results imply different selection patterns across countries and a sizeable male selection in France and the UK. Correction for selection bias lowers the gender wage gap and reveals a substantial glass ceiling with different magnitudes. Findings suggest that disparities between these countries are driven by occupational segregation and public spending on families.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Kenza Elass"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102506","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9aa2e0c3d2c0c4a9","title":"Are physicians rational under ambiguity?","abstract":"Do physicians behave rationally when facing a new disease? This study assesses physicians’ ambiguity attitudes towards the future severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in its early stages and the financial market in the US using an incentive-compatible online experiment. Our findings indicate that physicians demonstrate significant deviations from expected utility, characterized by a modest degree of ambiguity aversion and pronounced levels of likelihood insensitivity. While physicians generally show less insensitivity to uncertainty compared to the general public, both groups exhibited similar levels of irrationality when dealing with the ambiguity surrounding the COVID-19 severity. These results underscore the necessity for debiasing strategies among medical professionals, especially in managing real-world uncertainties, with a specific focus on mitigating likelihood insensitivity.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Yu Gao","Zhenxing Huang","Ning Liu","Jia Yang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09425-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9ab3c0d6192b8289","title":"The impact of public transportation and commuting on urban labor markets: Evidence from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, 1929–1932","abstract":"The growth of public transport networks in the late-nineteenth and early-twentieth centuries had profound effects on commuting in the industrialized world, yet the consequences for labor markets during this important period of historical development remains largely unstudied. This paper draws on a unique dataset combining individual commuting and wage information for working-class residents of London, circa 1930, to analyze, for the first time, the nature of and returns to commuting shortly after when networks were first built. A sizeable majority of working-class Londoners worked within a short walk of their residence in 1890. By 1930, over 70 percent commuted at least one kilometer. Commuting allowed workers to search for jobs over a wider geographic area and across a larger number of potential employers. This, in turn, potentially increased workers’ bargaining power and improved employer-employee matching. We show that wage returns to commuting were on the order of 1.5–3.5 percent per kilometer travelled. Access to public transport increased both the probability of commuting and distance commuted but had little or no direct effect on the probability of being employed or on earnings. We argue that these results are consistent with a search and matching framework; commuting led to workers finding jobs more suited to their skills and to better matches with employers. We also provide descriptive evidence from contemporary sources to describe the impact of commuting on improving quality of life by reducing urban crowding.","wordCount":234,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Andrew Seltzer","Jonathan Wadsworth"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101553","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9ab406cb2135a3f7","title":"Advertising Expensive Mortgages","abstract":"Using information on advertising and mortgages originated by subprime lenders, we study whether advertising helped consumers find cheaper mortgages. Lenders that advertise more within a region sell more expensive mortgages, measured as the excess rate of a mortgage after accounting for borrower, contract, and regional characteristics. These effects are stronger for mortgages sold to less sophisticated consumers. We exploit regional variation in mortgage advertising induced by the entry of Craigslist and other tests to demonstrate that these findings are not spurious. Analyzing advertising content reveals that initial/introductory rates are frequently advertised in a salient fashion, where reset rates are not.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Umit G. Gurun","Gregor Matvos","Amit Seru"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12423","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9abe296b4cf9eb29","title":"Benefiting from bias: Delegating to encourage information acquisition","abstract":"A principal delegates decisions to a biased agent. Payoffs depend on a state that the principal cannot observe. Initially, the agent does not observe the state, but he can acquire information about it at a cost. We characterize the principal's optimal delegation set. This set features a cap on high decisions and a gap around the agent's ex ante favorite decision. It may even induce ex-post Pareto-dominated decisions. Under certain conditions on the cost of information acquisition, we show that the principal prefers delegating to an agent with a small bias than to an unbiased agent.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Ian Ball","Xin Gao"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105816","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9ac065d355e7a4d6","title":"Contagion and tail risk in complex financial networks","abstract":"New contagion measures based on theories of copula, heavy-tailed distributions and networks are introduced. The measures are applied to study international stock markets contagion during the Global Financial Crisis 2008. Having declined post-crisis, the contagion risk remains above its pre-crisis level for both advanced and emerging economies. A sub-network analysis of contagion shows that the shock propagated mainly from core to periphery during the crisis. We propose an instrumental variable regression approach to deal with a potential endogeneity problem in the analysis of the contagion measures as determinants of tail risk. Endogeneity might arise as both contagion measures and tail indices are themselves estimated. The obtained results are statistically significant and suggest that more contagion-central countries tend to be less prone to tail risk.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Kumushoy Abduraimova"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106560","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9aca64df903b85e2","title":"World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation","abstract":"SVAR models that include a single world price (such as the terms-of-trade) predict that world shocks explain a small fraction of movements in domestic output (typically less than 10%). This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices transmit world disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960–2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33% of output fluctuations in individual economies. This figure doubles when the model is estimated on post 2000 data. The findings reported here suggest that one-world-price specifications significantly underestimate the importance of world shocks for domestic business cycles.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Andrés Fernàndez","Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé","Martı́n Uribe"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9ad1bdb7293f0248","title":"Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth","abstract":"Has the golden age of U.S. agricultural productivity growth ended? We analyze the detailed patterns of productivity growth spanning a century of profound changes in American agriculture. We document a substantial slowing of U.S. farm productivity growth, following a late mid-century surge—20 years after the surge and slowdown in U.S. industrial productivity growth. We posit and empirically probe three related explanations for this farm productivity surge-slowdown: the time path of agricultural R&D-driven knowledge stocks; a big wave of technological progress associated with great clusters of inventions; and dynamic aspects of the structural transformation of agriculture, largely completed by 1980.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Philip G. Pardey","Julian M. Alston"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000649","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9ad64fb2c207d4e2","title":"Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?","abstract":"This article provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946–2016. We find that the often cited post–Bretton Woods transition from fixed to flexible arrangements is overstated; regimes with limited flexibility remain in the majority. Even if central bankers’ communications jargon has evolved considerably in recent decades, it is apparent that many still place a large implicit weight on the exchange rate. The U.S. dollar scores as the world's dominant anchor currency by a very large margin. By some metrics, its use is far wider today than 70 years ago. In contrast, the global role of the euro appears to have stalled. We argue that in addition to the usual safe assets story, the record accumulation of reserves since 2002 may also have to do with many countries’ desire to stabilize exchange rates in an environment of markedly reduced exchange rate restrictions or, more broadly, capital controls: an important amendment to the conventional portrayal of the macroeconomic trilemma.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Ethan Ilzetzki","Carmen Reinhart","Kenneth Rogoff"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9ae808978bf3b0ae","title":"Pricing for a cooler planet: An empirical analysis of the effect of taxing carbon","abstract":"Finland introduced the planet’s first carbon tax in 1990 to experiment with, to most economists, the best policy to reverse carbon emissions. I estimate the causal effect of taxing carbon on Finnish emissions using the Synthetic Control Approach (Abadie, 2021). The results suggest that taxing carbon reduces emissions by big margins. Finnish emissions are 16% lower in 1995, 25% lower in 2000, and 30% lower in 2004 than emissions in the counterfactual consistent with carbon taxes whose value increasing by 20 fold in 1990 – 2005. The estimates suggest that the carbon tax’s abatement elasticity is about 9%.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Torben K. Mideksa"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103034","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9afba0c6964152bf","title":"Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth","abstract":"We assess the long‐run growth effects of rising longevity and increasing the retirement age when growth is driven by purposeful research and development. In contrast to economies in which growth depends on learning‐by‐doing spillovers, raising the retirement age fosters economic growth. How economic growth changes in response to rising life expectancy depends on the retirement response. Employing numerical analysis, we find that the requirement for experiencing a growth stimulus from rising longevity is fulfilled by the USA, nearly met by the average OECD economy, but missed by the European Union and by Japan.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Michael Kühn","Klaus Prettner"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12445","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b02b71f44f4afc4","title":"Do investors in Green Bond market pay a premium? Global evidence","abstract":"We examine the pricing difference of Green Bonds (GB) and conventional bonds (CBs) in capital markets worldwide. Credit spread is used to observe whether investors would like to pay a premium for GBs over CBs. This study uses panel data regression with hybrid model to analyse daily observations over the period 2016 to 2017. We employ Option-Adjusted spread (OAS) to measure the credit spreads of bonds while controlling for bond specific, macroeconomic and global factors that influence the spread. With the hybrid model used in the panel data analysis, we were able to capture the fixed-effects of variables in a random effect model. We find that GBs are traded at a premium of 63 basis points (BPS), compared with a comparable corporate bond issue. We find that the green label provides issuers an incentive to raise funds through issuing GBs while providing investors an opportunity to diversify their investments returns. Our findings provide several implications to the major stakeholders driving the GB market to scale up the market to finance the required level of global green investment needs. We stress an urgent need to support the growth of the GB market to achieve sustainable development through mitigating climate change challenges.Abbreviation GB: Green Bond; CB: Conventional Bond; YS: Yield Spread; BPS: Basis Points; OAS: Option-Adjusted Spread; PCSE: Panels Corrected Standard Errors; CPI: Consumer Price Index; GBPs: Green Bond Principles; CBS: Climate Bond Standard","wordCount":232,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Madurika Nanayakkara","Sisira Colombage"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1591611","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b06594e5209de56","title":"Terrorism and political attitudes: Evidence from European social surveys","abstract":"Terror attacks in Europe have increased substantially since the turn of the last century. Using data from European Social Surveys (ESS), we examine their effects on political attitudes and orientation by comparing within-country survey responses shortly before and after terror attacks involving at least one fatality. At the national level, we find little support for the hypothesis that terror attacks influenced attitudes towards immigration or political orientation. By contrast, there is evidence of post-attack increases in satisfaction with the national government and trust in parliament among ESS respondents living in the region that was attacked.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Giovanni Peri","Daniel I. Rees","Brock Smith"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103864","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9b07815a9cfa157d","title":"Teacher Incentives and Student Achievement: Evidence from an Advancement Program","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of a comprehensive performance pay program implemented in high‐need schools using administrative data from Louisiana. Exploiting the within‐student variation in the timing of implementation, we find a large and significant effect beginning with the second year of the program on math achievement. Similar but generally insignificant point estimates are observed in social studies. As for English Language Arts and science, there are no effects of the program. We provide evidence against changes in the composition of teacher workforce and postadoption student sorting as potential explanations for our results. We then show aggregate findings from a web‐survey that teachers may have altered their teaching practices following performance‐based compensation. Finally, under certain assumptions, we calculate the net present value of earnings impact to be close to a million dollars per school‐year for math.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Özkan Eren"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22146","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b0f37ee8ad74d67","title":"Multi‐battle Contests: An Experimental Study","abstract":"We examine behavior of subjects in simultaneous and sequential multi‐battle contests, where each individual battle is modeled as an all‐pay auction with complete information. In simultaneous best‐of‐three contests, subjects are predicted to make positive bids in all three battles, but we find that subjects often make positive bids in only two battles. In sequential contests, theory predicts sizable bids in the first battle and no bids in the subsequent battles. Contrary to this prediction, subjects significantly underbid in the first battle and overbid in subsequent battles. Consequently, instead of always ending in the second battle, contests often proceed to the third battle. Finally, although the aggregate bid in simultaneous contests is similar to that in sequential contests, in both settings, subjects make higher aggregate bids than predicted. The observed behavior of subjects can be rationalized by a combination of multidimensional iterative reasoning and a nonmonetary utility of winning.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Shakun D. Mago","Roman M. Sheremeta"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12182","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b166510ca556bd2","title":"Neighbors' Income, Public Goods, and Well‐Being","abstract":"How does neighbors' income affect individual well‐being? Our analysis is based on rich U.S. local data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, which contains information on where respondents live and their self‐reported well‐being. We find that the effect of neighbors' income on individuals' self‐reported well‐being varies with the size of the neighborhood included. In smaller areas such as ZIP codes, we find a positive relationship between median income and individuals' life satisfaction, whereas it is the opposite at the county, MSA, and state levels. We provide evidence that local public goods and local area characteristics such as unemployment, criminality, and poverty rates drive the association between satisfaction and neighbors' income at the ZIP code level. The neighbors' income effects are mainly concentrated among poorer individuals and are as large as one quarter of the effect of own income on self‐reported well‐being.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Abel Brodeur","Sarah Flèche"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12367","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9b30eecf4dd57f96","title":"The Impact of SNAP on Material Hardships: Evidence From Broad‐Based Categorical Eligibility Expansions","abstract":"This article examines whether expanding Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) eligibility reduces material hardships of low‐income households. During the Great Recession, many states expanded the income threshold of eligibility for SNAP. I show that expansions in eligibility increased the SNAP participation rate by 3–5 percentage points. I also find that the expansion leads to a modest decrease in nonfood hardships, such as rent and utility delinquencies. However, the increase in SNAP enrollment does not lead to greater food spending or a reduction in food insecurity except for households with children.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Jee-Hoon Han"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12171","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b3af57463bda173","title":"Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk‐Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States","abstract":"We present evidence of a risk‐taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on banks’ internal ratings on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Terms of Business Lending. We find that ex ante risk‐taking by banks (measured by the risk rating of new loans) is negatively associated with increases in short‐term interest rates. This relationship is more pronounced in regions that are less in sync with the nationwide business cycle, and less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods of financial distress.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Giovanni Dell’Ariccia","Luc Laeven","Gustavo Suárez"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12467","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b3c4074b36a38d1","title":"Global air quality inequality over 2000–2020","abstract":"Air pollution generates vast health burdens and economic costs around the world. Pollution exposure varies greatly, both between countries and within them. But the degree of air quality inequality and its’ trajectory have not been quantified at a global level. I use economic inequality indices to measure global inequality in exposure to ambient fine particles smaller than 2. 5 μ m (PM 2.5 ). I find high and rising levels of global air quality inequality. The global PM 2.5 Gini Index rose from 0.30 in 2000 to 0.35 in 2020, exceeding levels of income inequality in many countries. Air quality inequality is mostly driven by differences between countries and less so by variation within them, as decomposition analysis shows. A large share of those facing the highest levels of PM 2.5 exposure live in only a few countries. Building on the Global Burden of Disease framework, I find that mortality associated with PM 2.5 exposure is even more unequal than pollution exposure itself. The findings suggest that the common focus on inequality within countries overlooks an important global dimension of environmental justice.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Lutz Sager"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103112","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9b3f98a877109c2c","title":"Green financing of renewable energy generation: Capturing the role of exogenous moderation for ensuring sustainable development","abstract":"The USA has been facing difficulties in attaining the objectives of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). One of the major reasons behind this is the policy lacuna prevailing in terms of financializing the renewable energy generation projects. While the policy documents are suggesting solutions to address this issue, the hidden moderations arising out of the socio-economic and political settings are largely ignored. Moreover, the dependence structure of the green finance and renewable energy generation might follow a tail dependence, because of the extreme market conditions. The need for a policy reorientation involving these two factors has motivated the study. In this study the inter-quantile association between green finance and renewable energy generation are analyzed over January 1985 to December 2020. This study has also introduced a new method “Multivariate Quantile-on-Quantile Regression” (m-QQR). The study outcomes reveal that the impact of green finance on renewable energy generation is susceptible to exogenous moderation, while demonstrating inter-quantile dependence. The policy framework recommended in the study is aimed at helping the USA in attaining the objectives of SDG 7.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Avik Sinha","Vinit Ghosh","N. Hussain","Duc Khuong Nguyen","Narasingha Das"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107021","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9b40144dec2cd929","title":"Institutions, Demography, and Economic Growth","abstract":"This article evaluates criticisms by Sarah G. Carmichael, Alexandra de Pleijt, Jan Luiten van Zanden, and Tine De Moor of our view of the European Marriage Pattern (EMP), and explains why their claims are incorrect. We elaborate our arguments concerning the institutional sources of economic growth, explore the relationship between women's position and the EMP, analyze the two-way links between demographic and economic behavior, and explicate aspects of our empirical analysis that these scholars find puzzling. The causes of European economic growth, we reiterate, are not to be found in the EMP but rather must be sought in the wider framework of nonfamilial institutions.","wordCount":104,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Tracy Dennison","Sheilagh Ogilvie"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000486","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b410ca162027cf2","title":"Credit crunches, individual heterogeneity and the labor wedge","abstract":"Standard neoclassical theory suggests that the marginal product of labor (MPL) should be equal to the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure (MRS). Yet this is not the case in the data. Understanding the measured discrepancy between the MPL and the MRS, commonly referred as the labor wedge , is important to comprehend the limitations of economic models and thereafter improve them. The labor wedge has increased significantly during the Great Recession , but the mechanism of its variation in the credit crunch has not been well understood. This paper fills in this gap by studying the labor wedge in a DSGE model with collateral borrowing constraints. I find that a credit crunch can affect the labor wedge through a mechanism different from that of an exogenous TFP shock when there are endogenous entry and exit of production. With entry and exit, the tightening of the collateral constraints can cause the gap between the real wage and the MRS to increase, but the exogenous TFP shock does not have this mechanism. As a result, the labor wedge has higher increases in the credit crunch. When entry and exit are shut down, the labor wedge would have much smaller increases in the credit crunch.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Lini Zhang"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.01.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9b455f374d00502e","title":"Structural Change and Economic Growth in the British Economy before the Industrial Revolution, 1500–1800","abstract":"Structural transformation is a key indicator of economic development. We present the first time series of male labour sectoral shares for England and Wales before 1800, using a large sample of probate and apprenticeship data to produce national and county-level estimates. England experienced a rapid decline in the share of workers in agriculture between the early seventeenth and the beginning of the eighteenth centuries, associated with rising agricultural and especially industrial productivity; Wales saw few changes. Our results show that England experienced unusually early structural change and highlight the mid-seventeenth century as a turning point.","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Patrick Wallis","Justin Colson","David Chilosi"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000396","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b4b0f080cded1c6","title":"News as sources of jumps in stock returns: Evidence from 21 million news articles for 9000 companies","abstract":"Material news events can be potentially important sources of jumps in stock returns. We collect 21 million news articles associated with more than 9000 publicly-traded companies and use textual analyses to derive measures to summarize the news. We find that stock return jumps (including time-variation in jump-size distributions and jump intensity) are significantly related to news flow frequency and content and those effects increase substantially over the last few decades. The sensitivity of jump probability to news is stronger for firms with higher media visibility, analyst coverage, and institutional ownership. This sensitivity also varies across different news categories.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Yoontae Jeon","Thomas H. McCurdy","Xiaofei Zhao"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.08.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9b513799c895593e","title":"Perverse Consequences of Well Intentioned Regulation: Evidence from India’s Child Labor Ban","abstract":"Although bans against child labor are a ubiquitous policy tool, there is very little empirical evidence on their effectiveness. In this paper, we examine the consequences of India’s landmark legislation against child labor, the Child Labor (Prohibition and Regulation) Act of 1986. Using data from employment surveys conducted before and after the ban, and using age restrictions that determined whom the ban applied to, we show that the relative probability of child employment increases and child wages (relative to adult wages) decrease after the ban. Our main specification relies on comparing changes in work probabilities over time for children of the same age but with siblings who are rendered either eligible or ineligible for legal work when the ban is implemented. The increases in the probability of economic activity are largest for children (i) in areas where the industries targeted by the ban play a larger role in local labor markets, (ii) in areas where the probability of employer inspections is higher, and (iii) in families that are poorer. These results are consistent with a theoretical model building on the seminal work of Basu and Van (1998) and Basu (2005), where families use child labor to reach subsistence constraints and where child wages decrease in response to bans, leading poor families to utilize more child labor. We also find decreases in child participation in schooling (for younger children only) and no economically meaningful change in household outcomes like assets or calorie intake.","wordCount":242,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Prashant Bharadwaj","Leah K. Lakdawala","Nicholas Li"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz059","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b51a5dbb1e4d31d","title":"Vulnerable Growth","abstract":"We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time. Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Tobias Adrian","Nina Boyarchenko","Domenico Giannone"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161923","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b66de6f02710b9f","title":"Who Profits from Patents? Rent-Sharing at Innovative Firms","abstract":"This article analyzes how patent-induced shocks to labor productivity propagate into worker compensation using a new linkage of U.S. patent applications to U.S. business and worker tax records. We infer the causal effects of patent allowances by comparing firms whose patent applications were initially allowed to those whose patent applications were initially rejected. To identify patents that are ex ante valuable, we extrapolate the excess stock return estimates of Kogan et al. (2017) to the full set of accepted and rejected patent applications based on predetermined firm and patent application characteristics. An initial allowance of an ex ante valuable patent generates substantial increases in firm productivity and worker compensation. By contrast, initial allowances of lower ex ante value patents yield no detectable effects on firm outcomes. Patent allowances lead firms to increase employment, but entry wages and workforce composition are insensitive to patent decisions. On average, workers capture roughly 30 cents of every dollar of patent-induced surplus in higher earnings. This share is roughly twice as high among workers present since the year of application. These earnings effects are concentrated among men and workers in the top half of the earnings distribution and are paired with corresponding improvements in worker retention among these groups. We interpret these earnings responses as reflecting the capture of economic rents by senior workers, who are most costly for innovative firms to replace.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Patrick Kline","Neviana Petkova","Heidi Williams","Owen Zidar"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz011","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b6dc01bbee4f6d8","title":"On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies","abstract":"Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. agricultural yield, along with a higher-frequency regressor, e.g. daily temperature. Applied researchers then face a problem of selecting a model to characterize the nonlinear relationship between the outcome and the high-frequency regressor to make a policy recommendation based on the model-implied damage function. We show that existing model selection criteria are only suitable for the policy objective if one of the models under consideration nests the true model. If all models are seen as imperfect approximations of the true nonlinear relationship, the model that performs well in the historical climate conditions is not guaranteed to perform well at the projected climate. We therefore propose a new criterion, the proximity-weighted mean squared error (PWMSE) that directly targets precision of the damage function at the projected future climate. To make this criterion feasible, we assign higher weights to historical years that can serve as “weather analogs” to the projected future climate when evaluating competing models using the PWMSE. We show that our approach selects the best approximate regression model that has the smallest weighted squared error of predicted impacts for a projected future climate. A simulation study and an application revisiting the impact of climate change on agricultural production illustrate the empirical relevance of our theoretical analysis.","wordCount":235,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Xiaomeng Cui","Bulat Gafarov","Dalia Ghanem","Todd A. Kuffner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105511","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9b6eb53b36e76e43","title":"Looking beyond Enrollment: The Causal Effect of Need-Based Grants on College Access, Persistence, and Graduation","abstract":"The government has attempted to ameliorate gaps in college access and success by providing need-based grants, but little evidence exists on the long-term impacts of such aid. We examine the effects of the Florida Student Access Grant (FSAG) using a regression-discontinuity strategy and exploiting the cut-off used to determine eligibility. We find that [grant] had a positive effect on attendance, particularly at public 4-year institutions. Moreover, FSAG increased the rate of credit accumulation and bachelor’s degree completion within 6 years, with a 22% increase for students near the eligibility cut-off. The effects are robust to sensitivity analysis.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Benjamin Castleman","Bridget Terry Long"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686643","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b79e5765b45be6f","title":"Hospital systems and bargaining power: evidence from out‐of‐market acquisitions","abstract":"Analyses of hospital mergers typically focus on acquisitions that alter local market concentration. However, as prices are negotiated between hospital systems and insurers, this focus may overlook the impact of cross‐market interdependence in the bargaining outcome. Using data on out‐of‐market acquisitions occurring across the United States from 2000–2010, we investigate the impact of cross‐market dependencies on negotiated prices. We find that prices at hospitals acquired by out‐of‐market systems increase by about 17% more than unacquired, stand‐alone hospitals and confirm that out‐of‐market mergers result in a relaxation of competition, the prices of nearby competitors to acquired hospitals increase by around 8%.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Matthew S. Lewis","Kevin E. Pflum"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12186","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b9323713ed48bc9","title":"What drives home market advantage?","abstract":"In the automobile industry, as in many tradable goods markets, firms usually earn their highest market share within their domestic market. The goal of this paper is to disentangle the supply- and demand-driven sources of this home market advantage. While trade costs, foreign production costs, and taste heterogeneity all matter for market outcomes, we find that a preference for home brands is the single most important driver of home market advantage—even after controlling for brand histories and dealer networks. Furthermore, we also find that consumers favor domestically producing brands even if these brands originated from a foreign country. Therefore, our results suggest a novel demand effect of FDI: Establishing local production increases demand for the brand even in the absence of any cost savings.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["A. Kerem Grieco Cosar","Paul L.E. Grieco","Shengyu Li","Felix Tintelnot"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.11.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9b9578fb88b3ddb6","title":"Rural Roads and Local Economic Development","abstract":"Nearly one billion people worldwide live in rural areas without access to national paved road networks. We estimate the impacts of India’s $40 billion national rural road construction program using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and comprehensive household and firm census microdata. Four years after road construction, the main effect of new feeder roads is to facilitate the movement of workers out of agriculture. However, there are no major changes in agricultural outcomes, income, or assets. Employment in village firms expands only slightly. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Sam Asher","Paul Novosad"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180268","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b975ea1256ba715","title":"Mass media and social change: Can we use television to fight poverty?","abstract":"This paper explores the potential use of entertainment media programs for achieving development goals. I propose a simple framework for interpreting media effects that hinges on three channels: (i) information provision, (ii) role modeling and preference change, and (iii) time use. I then review the existing evidence on how exposure to commercial television and radio affects outcomes such as fertility preferences, gender norms, education, migration, and social capital. I complement these individual country studies with cross-country evidence from Africa and with a more in-depth analysis for Nigeria, using the Demographic Health Surveys. I then consider the potential educational role of entertainment media, starting with a discussion of the psychological underpinnings and then reviewing recent rigorous evaluations of edutainment programs. I conclude by highlighting open questions and avenues for future research.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Eliana La Ferrara"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12181","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9b9be30c4cacecbc","title":"Macroeconomic uncertainty prices when beliefs are tenuous","abstract":"Investors face uncertainty over models when they do not know which member of a set of well-defined “structured models” is best. They face uncertainty about models when they suspect that all of the structured models might be misspecified. We refer to worries about the first type of ignorance as ambiguity concerns and worries about the second type as misspecification concerns. These two types of ignorance about probability distributions of risks add what we call uncertainty components to equilibrium prices of those risks. A quantitative example highlights a representative investor’s uncertainties about the size and persistence of macroeconomic growth rates. Our model of preferences under concerns about model ambiguity and misspecification puts nonlinearities into marginal valuations that induce time variations in market prices of uncertainty. These reflect the representative investor’s fears of high persistence of low growth rate states and low persistence of high growth rate states.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Lars Peter Hansen","Thomas J. Sargent"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.11.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9bada2f6fbf47c3b","title":"Fixed rate versus adjustable rate mortgages: Evidence from euro area banks","abstract":"Why do residential mortgages carry a fixed or an adjustable interest rate? To answer this question we study unique data from 103 banks belonging to 73 different banking groups across twelve countries in the euro area. To explain the large cross-country and time variations observed, we distinguish between household conditions that determine the local demand for credit and the characteristics of banks that supply credit. As bank funding mostly occurs at the group level, we disentangle these two sets of factors by comparing the outcome observed for the same banking group across the different countries. Local household conditions dominate. In particular we find that the share of new loans with a fixed rate is larger when: (1) the historical volatility of inflation is lower, (2) the correlation between unemployment and the short-term interest rate is higher, (3) households’ financial literacy is lower, and (4) the use of local mortgages to back covered bonds and of mortgage-backed securities is more widespread.","wordCount":160,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Ugo Albertazzi","Fulvia Fringuellotti","Steven Ongena"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104643","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9bd9cca0495f28b3","title":"Self-selection of Emigrants: Theory and Evidence on Stochastic Dominance in Observable and Unobservable Characteristics","abstract":"The Roy model has more precise predictions about the self-selection of migrants than previously realised. The conditions shown to result in positive or negative selection in terms of expected earnings also imply a stochastic dominance relationship between the earnings distributions of migrants and non-migrants. We test these predictions using the Danish full population administrative data. We find strong evidence of positive self-selection of emigrants in terms of pre-emigration earnings and residual earnings: the income distribution for the migrants almost stochastically dominates the distribution for the non-migrants. Decomposing the self-selection in total earnings reveals that unobserved abilities play the dominant role.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["George J. Borjas","Ilpo Kauppinen","Panu Poutvaara"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12585","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9be2a30eb4a631e6","title":"Does regulatory cooperation help integrate equity markets?","abstract":"This study tests whether cooperation between securities regulators influences global market integration. I measure cooperation using arrangements between securities regulators that enable enhanced cross-border enforcement, better regulatory decisions, and reduced compliance obligations for cross-border activities. These arrangements-formed at different times for different country pairs-are associated with an 11% increase in cross-border investment. I find similar increases using other proxies for market integration. Cross-border investment and market integration thus depend, in part, on regulators working together to extend legal and institutional capacities across borders. This reframes our understanding of the role of institutions in global capital markets.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Roger Silvers"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.040","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9beaf0683becc110","title":"Ambiguity aversion and the degree of ambiguity","abstract":"We empirically show that sample information not only moderates prospects’ outcome ambiguity but also decision makers’ revealed aversion of them. Since most natural prospects permit at least some sample inference, accounting for their degree of ambiguity improves prediction of aversion. The special case of full ambiguity, as in Ellsberg-type designs, is typically averted—yet many decision makers systematically like low degrees of ambiguity while disliking higher degrees. Ambiguity attitudes might thus usefully be characterized by not only their sensitivity to degrees of ambiguity but also such ambiguity thresholds. Just as people like some risks but not others, they have ambiguity attitudes that depend on how much ambiguity there is. We thus show how attitudes towards a degree of ambiguity are systematic, enabling prediction across sources of ambiguity.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Ronald Klingebiel","Feibai Zhu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09410-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9bfc8d3256da7eb8","title":"Racing to the bottom? Chinese development projects and trade union involvement in Africa","abstract":"Chinese firms operating in Africa are often accused of violating international labour standards and not adhering with national labour laws. Considering China’s tendency to maintain control over development projects throughout the entire implementation phase, using Chinese contractors for work performed in the recipient countries, the present paper investigates whether China impacts African labour practices in their capacity as a donor. Specifically, we use a new data material allowing for systematic quantitative analysis of Chinese development finance to investigate whether Chinese development projects affect trade union involvement. Matching geo-referenced data on the subnational allocation of Chinese development projects to Africa over the 2000–2012 period with 41,902 survey respondents across 18 African countries, our estimation strategy relies on comparing the trade union involvement of individuals who live near a site where a Chinese project is being implemented at the time of the interview to those of individuals living near a site where a Chinese project will appear in the future, but where implementation had yet to be initiated at the time of the survey. The results consistently indicate that Chinese development projects – unlike the projects of other major donors – discourage trade union involvement in the local area.","wordCount":197,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Ann‐Sofie Isaksson","Andreas Kotsadam"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.02.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c0a64232b78704c","title":"Access to infrastructure and women’s time allocation: Implications for growth and gender equality","abstract":"Improved access to infrastructure is commonly viewed as a critical step to increase women’s labor force participation and promote economic growth in developing countries. This positive relationship is first established in a basic gender-based, overlapping generations model with collective households and congestion costs. The model is then extended to account for endogenous gender bias in the market place and women’s bargaining power, as well as fertility choices and rearing time. Numerical experiments, based on a calibrated version of the extended model, show that increased access to infrastructure may induce women to devote more time to child rearing – in line with the model’s predictions and some of the empirical evidence – thereby mitigating the increase in time allocated to market work. As a result, it may weaken the benefits of increased female labor force participation in terms of reduced gender bias in the market place, improved women’s bargaining power in the family, and higher growth rates in the long run.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Pierre‐Richard Agénor","Madina Agénor"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103472","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c0eae2e5d208eda","title":"Temperature shocks and industry earnings news","abstract":"Climate scientists project rising average temperatures and increasing frequency of temperature extremes. We study how extreme temperatures affect corporate profitability across different industries and whether sell-side analysts understand these relationships. We combine granular daily data on temperatures across the continental U.S. with locations of public companies’ establishments and build a panel of quarterly firm-level temperature exposures. Extreme temperatures significantly impact earnings in over 40% of industries, with bi-directional effects that harm some industries while others benefit. Analysts and investors do not immediately react to observable intra-quarter temperature shocks, though earnings forecasts account for temperature effects by quarter-end in many industries.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Jawad M. Addoum","David T. Ng","Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.07.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c160dd3004a3ceb","title":"Learning efficient equilibria in repeated games","abstract":"The folk theorem tells us that a wide range of payoffs can be sustained as equilibria in an infinitely repeated game. Existing results about learning in repeated games suggest that players may converge to an equilibrium, but do not address selection between equilibria. I propose a stochastic learning rule that selects a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game in which payoffs are efficient. The exact payoffs selected depend on how players experiment; two natural specifications yield the Kalai–Smorodinsky and maxmin bargaining solutions, respectively.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Sam Jindani"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105551","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c16b32c1f11e71c","title":"Can past informality impede registered firms’ access to credit?","abstract":"Using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, covering 159 countries from 2006 to 2023, we examine whether past informality affects the credit constraints of registered firms. Estimations, based on the entropy balancing method, indicate that registered firms that began operations informally are more likely to be credit-constrained than those that started in the formal sector. This finding is extremely robust to a variety of robustness tests, including instrumental variables, propensity score matching, potential omitted variables, restricted samples, alternative measures of credit constraints, and different specifications such as Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit models. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the detrimental impact of past informality lessens with firm size, firm age, and better structural factors like regulatory quality, trade openness, entrepreneurial dynamism, and public spending. Productivity, competition from the informal sector, and the quality of financial statements are key channels through which past informality increases credit constraints for registered firms.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Dorgyles Kouakou"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c1a094fe83a0dfb","title":"More Power to the People: Electricity Adoption, Technological Change, and Labor Conflict","abstract":"Will technical change spur conflicts in the labor market? In this study, we examine electricity adoption in Sweden during the first decades of the twentieth century. Exploiting that proximity to hydropowered plants shaped the electricity network independently of previous local conditions, we estimate the impact of electricity on labor strikes. Our results indicate that electricity adoption preceded an increase in conflicts, but strikes were of an offensive nature and most common in sectors with increasing labor demand. This suggests that electrification provided workers with a stronger bargaining position from which they could voice their claims.","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Jakob Molinder","Tobias Karlsson","Kerstin Enflo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050721000127","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c1bbe12160427ae","title":"Network defense and behavioral biases: an experimental study","abstract":"How do people distribute defenses over a directed network attack graph, where they must defend a critical node? This question is of interest to computer scientists, information technology and security professionals. Decision-makers are often subject to behavioral biases that cause them to make sub-optimal defense decisions, which can prove especially costly if the critical node is an essential infrastructure. We posit that non-linear probability weighting is one bias that may lead to sub-optimal decision-making in this environment, and provide an experimental test. We find support for this conjecture, and also identify other empirically important forms of biases such as naive diversification and preferences over the spatial timing of the revelation of an overall successful defense. The latter preference is related to the concept of anticipatory feelings induced by the timing of the resolution of uncertainty.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Daniel C. Woods","Mustafa Abdallah","Saurabh Bagchi","Shreyas Sundaram","Timothy N. Cason"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09714-x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9c2369d6a5a27013","title":"Late marriage as a contributor to the industrial revolution in England","abstract":"Was the European marriage pattern an important contributor to England's precocious economic development? This article examines this question by embedding the possibility in a historically substantiated demographic‐economic model, supported by both cross‐section and long time series evidence. Persistent high mortality and powerful mortality shocks in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries lowered life expectations. Subsequently increased life expectancy reduced the number of births necessary to achieve a given family size. Fewer births were achieved by a higher age at first marriage of females. Later marriage not only constrained population growth but also provided greater opportunities for female informal learning, especially through ‘service’. In a period when the family was the principal institution for socializing future workers, such learning was a significant contributor to the intergenerational transmission and accumulation of human capital. This article shows how, over the centuries, the gradual induced rise of human capital raised productivity and eventually brought about the industrial revolution. Without the contribution of late marriage to human capital accumulation broadly interpreted, real wages in England would not have increased strongly in the early nineteenth century and would have been much lower than actually achieved for several centuries.","wordCount":191,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["James Foreman–Peck","Peng Zhou"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12651","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9c37033c28828992","title":"A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance","abstract":"Despite widespread exposure to substantial medical expenditure risk in low-income populations, health insurance enrollment is typically low. This is puzzling from the perspective of expected utility theory. To help explain it, this paper introduces a decomposition of the stated willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance into its fair price and three behavioral deviations from that price due to risk perception and risk attitude consistent with prospect theory, plus a residual. To apply this approach, we elicit WTP, subjective distributions of medical expenditures and risk attitude (utility curvature and probability weighting) from Filipino households in a nationwide survey. We find that the mean stated WTP of the uninsured is less than both the actuarially fair price and the subsidized price at which public insurance is offered. This is not explained by downwardly biased beliefs: both the mean and the median subjective expectation are greater than the subsidized price. Convex utility in the domain of losses pushes mean WTP below the fair price and the subsidized price, and the transformation of probabilities into decision weights depresses the mean further, at least using one of two specific decompositions. WTP is reduced further by factors other than risk perception and attitude.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Aleli D. Kraft","Owen O’Donnell","Kim van Wilgenburg"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09371-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c4bbf28b0a268df","title":"Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary","abstract":"In this paper, we examine the relationship between temperature and human conception rates and project the impacts of climate change by the mid-twenty-first century. Using complete administrative data on 6.8 million pregnancies between 1980 and 2015 in Hungary, we show that exposure to hot temperatures reduces the conception rate in the first few weeks following exposure, but a partial rebound is observed after that. We project that with absent adaptation, climate change will increase seasonal differences in conception rates and annual conception rates will decline. A change in the number of induced abortions and spontaneous fetal losses drives the decline in conception rates. The number of live births is unaffected. However, some newborns will experience a shift in the timing of conception that leads to changes in in utero temperature exposure and therefore might have further consequences.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Tamás Hajdu","Gábor Hajdu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00814-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c4e99f6b2a9e4eb","title":"The beneficial effect of common ownership: Evidence from bank liquidity creation","abstract":"We argue a positive association between common ownership and liquidity creation because common ownership increases risk-absorption capacity through higher profit margins, greater equity capital, and improved disclosure quality. Accordingly, we find solid evidence that banks with greater common ownership create 3.56%–4.54% more liquidity. The beneficial effect on liquidity creation is dominant for banks with high risk-absorption capacities, enhanced disclosure quality, low competition, greater long-term shareholdings, and low performance-sensitive managerial incentives, substantiating our theoretical conjectures and establishing five significant channels. Finally, we show that banks have incentive to create more liquidity when they have significant co-ownerships among themselves. Our main findings remain robust to multiple proxies, alternative specifications, and three methods to address endogeneity concerns – difference-in-differences based on the Blackrock–Barclays Global Investors merger in 2009, two-stage least squares analysis with instrumental variables based on Russell 2000 index inclusion, and propensity score matching.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Joye Khoo","Chen Zheng","Shams Pathan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107172","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c527b2e63d5406e","title":"Climate smart agricultural practices and gender differentiated nutrition outcome: An empirical evidence from Ethiopia","abstract":"Since the beginning of the decade, climate resilient green economy strategies have been proposed in many African countries. One of the pillars of the strategies is the adoption and diffusion of various climate smart agricultural practices for improving crop and livestock production and farmer income while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The effects of these innovations on household nutritional security, including gender-differentiated nutritional status, have hardly been analyzed. We examine the determinants of adoption of combinations of multiple climate smart agricultural innovations and their impact on different nutrition outcomes. We find that adoption of climate smart innovations increases dietary diversity and improves calorie and protein availability. These benefits increase with adoption of combinations of innovations, relative to adopting an innovation in isolation. Gender-disaggregation results suggest nutritional outcome differentials between male and female headed households due to both differences in household characteristics, including household resources, and differences in returns to resources. The study provides insight into the interaction between climate change adaptation and nutrition security among male and female headed households, with implication for the Sustainable Development Goals of ending hunger, achieving gender equality, and taking action on climate change.","wordCount":188,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Hailemariam Teklewold","Tagel Gebrehiwot","Mintewab Bezabih"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.05.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9c5cd9db4efdbac3","title":"Trade and Geography in the Spread of Islam","abstract":"In this study we explore the historical determinants of contemporary Muslim representation. Motivated by a plethora of case studies and historical accounts among Islamicists stressing the role of trade for the adoption of Islam, we construct detailed data on pre-Islamic trade routes, harbors, and ports to determine the empirical regularity of this argument. Our analysis - conducted across countries and across ethnic groups within countries - establishes that proximity to the pre-600 CE trade network is a robust predictor of today's Muslim adherence in the Old World. We also show that Islam spread successfully in regions that are ecologically similar to the birthplace of the religion, the Arabian Peninsula. Namely, territories characterized by a large share of arid and semiarid regions dotted with few pockets of fertile land are more likely to host Muslim communities. We discuss the various mechanisms that may give rise to the observed pattern.","wordCount":148,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Stelios Michalopoulos","Alireza Naghavi","Giovanni Prarolo"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12557","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9c6661bea98d408d","title":"Index insurance and basis risk: A reconsideration","abstract":"Index insurance has been seen as an important tool for managing the risks faced by farmers in developing countries but uptake has been disappointingly low. Basis risk is often cited as one of the main reasons for the lack of uptake. We investigate the role of basis risk in greater depth by considering contracts that allow farmers to choose the level of the index that triggers an indemnity in addition to coverage. We show that risk averse farmers will select trigger levels to protect against catastrophic outcomes, even if downside basis risk increases. A numerical simulation model bears out our theoretical results.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Erik Lichtenberg","Eva Iglesias"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102883","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9c704ea28c6fa980","title":"The effect of clean air on pharmaceutical expenditures","abstract":"Airborne emissions are detrimental to health. Low emission zones (LEZs) that restrict pollution-intensive vehicles from entering are popular measures to curb local emissions such as particulate matter. We evaluate how LEZs impact defensive pharmaceutical expenditures. To this end, we use the complete medical histories of 2.7M individuals insured with Germany’s largest public health insurer AOK. We identify causal effects exploiting the quasi-experimental, staggered introduction of LEZs in 49 cities. We find that LEZs reduce annual pharmaceutical expenditures for heart and respiratory diseases by 15.8M€, representing a significant fraction of policy costs.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Alexander Rohlf","Felix Holub","Nicolas Koch","Nolan Ritter"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109221","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9c8ea0ed5a540288","title":"Effectiveness of China's plug-in electric vehicle subsidy","abstract":"Subsidies for promoting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption are a key component of China's overall plan for reducing local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the light-duty vehicle sector. In this paper, we explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the Chinese PEV subsidy program. In particular, a vehicle choice model is estimated using a large random sample of individual level, model year 2017 Chinese new vehicle purchases. The choice model is then used to predict PEV market share under alternative policies. Simulation results suggest that the 2.5% PEV market share of Chinese new vehicle sales in 2017 resulted in China's new vehicle fleet fuel economy improving by roughly 2%, reducing total gasoline consumption by 6.66 billion liters. However, the current PEV subsidy in China is expensive, costing $1.90 per additional liter of gasoline saved. This is due to a large number of non-additional PEV buyers, particularly high income consumers, who would have purchased the PEV regardless of the subsidy. Eliminating the subsidy for high income consumers and increasing it for low income consumers could result in a substantially lower cost per additional PEV ($13,758 versus $24,506). This would allow for greater PEV adoption (3.11% versus 2.47% market share) for the same budget. In terms of the impact of the recently announced subsidy reduction, results suggest that the PEV market share in China would have declined by 21% had the subsidy been halved without any countervailing measures. Using the same reduced budget, had zero PEV subsidies been given to high-income consumers and higher subsidies been given to low-income consumers, the PEV market share would have declined by only 8%.","wordCount":269,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Tamara L. Sheldon","Rubal Dua"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104773","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9c8f28649b3aa898","title":"Multiattribute utility theory, intertemporal utility, and correlation aversion","abstract":"Convenient assumptions about qualitative properties of the intertemporal utility function have generated counterintuitive implications for the relationship between atemporal risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If the intertemporal utility function is additively separable, then the latter two concepts are the inverse of each other. We review a theoretical specification with a long lineage in the literature on multi‐attribute utility and use this theoretical structure to guide the design of a series of experiments that allow us to identify and estimate intertemporal correlation aversion. Our results show that subjects are correlation averse over lotteries with intertemporal income profiles.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Steffen Andersen","Glenn W. Harrison","Morten I. Lau","E. Elisabet Rutström"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12279","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9c923cd8993a3e4e","title":"State-level economic policy uncertainty","abstract":"We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU−S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU−N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU−S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 2000–01 and the Kansas tax experiment of 2012. EPU−N rises around presidential elections and in response to 9–11, Gulf Wars I and II, the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, the 2012 fiscal cliff episode, and federal government shutdowns. Close elections elevate policy uncertainty much more than the average election. VAR models fit to pre-COVID data imply that upward shocks to own-state EPU foreshadow weaker economic performance in the state, as do upward EPU shocks in contiguous states. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment, more so in states with stricter government-mandated lockdowns.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Scott Baker","Steven J. Davis","Jeffrey A. Levy"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.08.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9c98d6e2aad772d4","title":"Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models","abstract":"We study the incidental parameter problem for the “three-way” Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (“PPML”) estimator recently recommended for identifying the effects of trade policies and in other panel data gravity settings. Despite the number and variety of fixed effects involved, we confirm PPML is consistent for fixed T and we show it is in fact the only estimator among a wide range of PML gravity estimators that is generally consistent in this context when T is fixed. At the same time, asymptotic confidence intervals in fixed-T panels are not correctly centered at the true parameter values, and cluster-robust variance estimates used to construct standard errors are generally biased as well. We characterize each of these biases analytically and show both numerically and empirically that they are salient even for real-data settings with a large number of countries. We also offer practical remedies that can be used to obtain more reliable inferences of the effects of trade policies and other time-varying gravity variables, which we make available via an accompanying Stata package called ppml_fe_bias.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Martin Weidner","Thomas Zylkin"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103513","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9c9c40581e79d43a","title":"Pareto and the Upper Tail of the Income Distribution in the UK: 1799 to the Present","abstract":"The Pareto distribution has long been a source of fascination to economists, and the Pareto coefficient is widely used, in theoretical and empirical studies, as a summary of the degree of concentration of top incomes. This paper examines the empirical evidence from income tax data concerning top incomes in the UK , contrasting the dramatic changes that took place in the twentieth century, after 1918, with the much more modest changes in the preceding nineteenth century. Probing beneath the surface, the paper identifies a number of features of the evolution of the UK income inequality that warrant closer attention. These include the changing shape of the upper tail, where there is a link with Pareto's theory of elites, the need for a richer functional form to describe top incomes, and the limited evidence at the top of the distribution for a Kuznets curve in nineteenth century Britain.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Economica","authors":["A. B. Atkinson"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12214","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9cb8ad1bcfad2255","title":"Extreme heat and firms' robot adoption: Evidence from China","abstract":"This is the first study to explore the relationship between extreme heat and firms' robot adoption. The findings demonstrate that, relative to a day in the reference temperature bin, an extra day with an average temperature above 30°C reduces the probability of a firm adopting robots and the cumulative number of robots a firm has adopted. The channels of tightened financial constraints and the increased comparative advantages of industrial robots over labor are important in explaining the documented impacts. The negative effects of extreme heat are only pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises, firms with negative working capital, and firms in industries with fewer automation opportunities. Moreover, local adaptation in high-temperature regions mitigates the negative impacts of extreme heat on robot adoption. This study focuses on firms' adaptive behavior under extreme heat, which previous studies have largely overlooked, with implications for policymakers concerned with climate change adaptation and industrial automation.","wordCount":148,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yuwei Tang","Zhenyu He"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102161","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9cbc1624528a0d69","title":"Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls","abstract":"We evaluate whether a lack of guidance on how to choose the matching variables used in the Synthetic Control (SC) estimator creates specification‐searching opportunities. We provide theoretical results showing that specification‐searching opportunities are asymptotically irrelevant if we restrict to a subset of SC specifications. However, based on Monte Carlo simulations and simulations with real datasets, we show significant room for specification searching when the number of pre‐treatment periods is in line with common SC applications, and when alternative specifications commonly used in SC applications are also considered. This suggests that such lack of guidance generates a substantial level of discretion in the choice of the comparison units in SC applications, undermining one of the advantages of the method. We provide recommendations to limit the possibilities for specification searching in the SC method. Finally, we analyze the possibilities for specification searching and provide our recommendations in a series of empirical applications.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Bruno Ferman","Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto","Vítor Possebom"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22206","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9cbc971859478d3f","title":"Strategic responses to disparities in spousal desired fertility: experimental evidence from rural Tanzania","abstract":"In sub-Saharan Africa, the gap in fertility preferences between men and women may influence household fertility outcomes as men usually desire more children and have more intra-household bargaining power. We estimate the effect of an informational family planning program that randomizes the inclusion of husbands on fertility preferences (desired additional children) in rural Tanzania. Surprisingly, husbands who participated in joint family planning consultations increased their desired fertility, and their wives responded by also increasing their desired number of additional children, converging to his larger preferences. In contrast, women in private family planning consultations (without their husbands) reduced their fertility desires, while their husbands’ preferences remained unchanged. We provide evidence that the increase in women’s fertility preferences as a result of the joint consultations is related to polygamy. Women in polygamous marriages increase their demand for children substantially, likely as a strategic response to hearing their husbands’ stated preferences during the joint consultations.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Catalina Herrera‐Almanza","Aine Seitz McCarthy"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-025-01142-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9cbd29cecb4621f6","title":"Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy","abstract":"This article evaluates the impact of rare disasters on the natural interest rate and inflation, and their implications for monetary policy, by using data on natural disasters in OECD countries. Ex‐ante , disaster risk behaves as a negative demand shock and permanently lowers the natural rate and inflation. These effects become larger and nonlinear if the frequency of extreme natural disasters increases. Ex‐post , a disaster realization leads to temporarily higher or lower natural rate and inflation depending on whether supply‐ or demand‐side effects prevail. The article hence shows the importance of disentangling disaster strikes from disaster risk in shaping monetary policy.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Alessandro Cantelmo"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12490","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9cd682e427e32490","title":"Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy","abstract":"We study the transmission mechanism of a Green QE, defined as a policy that tilts the central bank’s balance sheet toward green bonds, that is bonds issued by non-polluting firms. We merge a DSGE framework with an environmental model, in which CO2 emissions increase the stock of atmospheric carbon, which in turn decreases total factor productivity. Imperfect substitutability between green and brown bonds is a necessary condition for the effectiveness of Green QE. However, even under this assumption, the effect of Green QE in reducing emissions is negligible and in some cases close to nil.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Alessandro Ferrari","Valerio Nispi Landi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9cdbaea55adc5d43","title":"Do disclosures of selective access improve market information acquisition fairness? Evidence from company visits in China","abstract":"Following an exogenous regulation change in China, we examine the impact of company visit disclosures on the fairness of market information acquisition. Before July 2012, company visits to Chinese listed firms were vaguely disclosed in annual reports long after they were conducted. After that, they were disclosed in detail within two trading days of their completion. Market reactions around visits are much stronger and more predictive of firms' future earnings if visits occurred after July 2012 and, thus, were disclosed in a timelier and more detailed manner. The timely disclosure of visit details also improves the forecast accuracy of non-visiting analysts, reduces forecast dispersion among analysts, and weakens the relative information advantages of visiting analysts. Because of this, visits are more concentrated on firms with poorer information environments, larger sizes, and manufacturing firms after July 2012, i.e., firms offering visitors larger potential benefits. In summary, the timely disclosure of visit details improves the fairness of information acquisition and decreases information asymmetry while causing information chilling effects for firms that provide fewer potential benefits to visitors.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Jun Yang","Jing Lu","Cheng Xiang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101631","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9cdcf305777ca60c","title":"Financial Development, Endogenous Dependence on External Financing, and Trade","abstract":"Influential papers on how credit constraints affect international trade have shown a tendency to assume that asset tangibility and the share of external borrowing are exogenous industry characteristics that are time‐ and country‐invariant. In the finance literature, however, the share of external borrowing is viewed as endogenous and dependent on the amount of collateral that a firm can provide (and thus, implicitly, on its asset tangibility). Drawing from the finance literature, I hypothesize that there are supply‐side factors that exert substantial influences on the share of external financing. I test this new perspective with country‐ and industry‐specific measures of asset tangibility and external borrowing. I find that (i) the share of external borrowing increases in asset tangibility, and (ii) the sectoral rankings of asset tangibility and the share of external borrowing vary significantly across countries. Further, I develop a theoretical model to investigate the impact of financial development and asset tangibility on the demand and supply of external finance and exports. The model yields theoretical predictions that are consistent with, and provide intuition for, the above results. Both the model and my empirical results demonstrate that industries with more tangible assets export more from countries with high levels of financial development.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Byeonghwa Choi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12309","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9ce00cca71d96977","title":"Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change","abstract":"We examine a determinant of cultural persistence that has emerged from a class of models in evolutionary anthropology: the similarity of the environment across generations. Within these models, when the environment is more stable across generations, the traits that have evolved up to the previous generation are more likely to be suitable for the current generation. In equilibrium, a greater value is placed on tradition and there is greater cultural persistence. We test this hypothesis by measuring the variability of climatic measures across 20-year generations from 500 to 1900. Employing a variety of tests that use different samples and empirical strategies, we find that populations with ancestors who lived in environments with more cross-generational instability place less importance on maintaining tradition today and exhibit less cultural persistence.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Paola Giuliano","Nathan Nunn"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa074","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d0623fad7f6effe","title":"Voting on multiple issues: What to put on the ballot?","abstract":"We study a multidimensional collective decision under incomplete information. Agents have Euclidean preferences and vote by simple majority on each issue (dimension), yielding the coordinate‐wise median. Judicious rotations of the orthogonal axes—the issues that are voted upon—lead to welfare improvements. If the agents' types are drawn from a distribution with independent marginals, then under weak conditions, voting on the original issues is not optimal. If the marginals are identical (but not necessarily independent), then voting first on the total sum and next on the differences is often welfare superior to voting on the original issues. We also provide various lower bounds on incentive efficiency: in particular, if agents' types are drawn from a log‐concave density with independently and identically distributed marginals, a second‐best voting mechanism attains at least 88 % of the first‐best efficiency. Finally, we generalize our method and some of our insights to preferences derived from distance functions based on inner products.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Alex Gershkov","Benny Moldovanu","Xianwen Shi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3193","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-9d171452ff003d4f","title":"Pay by Design: Teacher Performance Pay Design and the Distribution of Student Achievement","abstract":"We present results of a randomized trial testing alternative approaches of mapping student achievement into rewards for teachers. Teachers in 216 schools in western China were assigned to performance pay schemes where teacher performance was assessed by one of three different methods. We find that teachers offered “pay-for-percentile” incentives outperform teachers offered simpler schemes based on class-average achievement or average gains over a school year. Moreover, pay-for-percentile incentives produced broad-based gains across students within classes. That teachers respond to relatively intricate features of incentive schemes highlights the importance of paying close attention to performance pay design.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Prashant Loyalka","Sean Sylvia","Chengfang Liu","James Chu","Yaojiang Shi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/702625","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d23e6881e01b92b","title":"Testing for integration and cointegration when time series are observed with noise","abstract":"When time series are observed with noise, the popular Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Johansen’s cointegration test are oversized: the ADF tends to conclude for stationarity too often and Johansen’s test finds too many cointegrating relations. This fact is well-known but no simple solution has been proposed in the literature. In this work, we show why this happens and prove theoretically and by Monte Carlo simulations how three different filtering approaches can significantly improve the performance of the two tests applied to noisy data without harming their properties when observations are free from noise. We show how conclusions can change when using filtered time series in two real applications: one concerning wholesale electricity prices in European countries, and the second warning against pairs trading strategies based on spurious cointegrating relations among stock prices.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Angelica Gianfreda","Paolo Maranzano","Lucia Parisio","Matteo Pelagatti"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106352","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9d3720a12a7d08ce","title":"Gender discrimination in hiring across occupations: a nationally-representative vignette study","abstract":"We investigate gender discrimination in a nationally-representative sample of German firms using a factorial survey design. Short CVs of fictitious applicants for apprenticeship positions are presented to human resource managers who are asked to evaluate the applicants. Women are evaluated worse than men on average, controlling for all attributes of the CV. This measure of discrimination is robust to differences in the variance of unobservable productivity characteristics (“Heckman critique”). Discrimination against women varies across industries and occupations. Controlling for all occupation- and firm-related variables that we observe, only the share of women in an occupation correlates with discrimination.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Dorothea Kübler","Julia Schmid","Robert Stüber"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2018.10.002","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-9d3884ecc6b5ece1","title":"Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p‐values in Equilibrium Correction Models1","abstract":"We consider the popular ‘bounds test’ for the existence of a level relationship in conditional equilibrium correction models. By estimating response surface models based on about 95 billion simulated F ‐statistics and 57 billion t ‐statistics, we improve upon and substantially extend the set of available critical values, covering the full range of possible sample sizes and lag orders, and allowing for any number of long‐run forcing variables. By computing approximate P ‐values, we find that the bounds test can be easily oversized by more than 5 percentage points in small samples when using asymptotic critical values.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sebastian Kripfganz","Daniel C. Schneider"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12377","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9d3e3636d0317735","title":"Is labor's loss capital's gain? Gross versus net labor shares","abstract":"US labor share has been falling since the 1970s. I show that it has not fallen as much once items that do not add to capital, depreciation and production taxes, are netted out. Recent net labor share is within its historical range, whereas gross share is at its lowest level. This effect holds for other high-income economies. The overall picture is no longer one of unprecedented, globally declining labor share. Using gross share as a proxy for net share can give misleading results. US gross share and inequality are correlated, whereas net share, the correct measure, is not.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Benjamin Bridgman"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001000","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d4143671f5fb125","title":"Dust Bowl Migrants: Environmental Refugees and Economic Adaptation","abstract":"The 1930s American Dust Bowl created archetypal “Dust Bowl migrants,” refugees from environmental collapse. I examine this archetype, comparing migration from more-eroded and less-eroded counties to distinguish Dust Bowl migrants from other migrants. Dust Bowl migrants were “negatively selected,” in years of education, compared to other migrants who were “positively selected.” Dust Bowl migrants had lower incomes than natives in their destinations, which is reflected in popular impressions. I estimate strikingly modest impacts of the Dust Bowl on average wage incomes in 1939, however, which contrasts with the Dust Bowl’s large and enduring impacts on agricultural land.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Richard Hornbeck"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050723000244","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9d45ff8a206be2ce","title":"The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction","abstract":"We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mortality effects are concentrated in about 25 percent of the elderly population.","wordCount":86,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Tatyana Deryugina","Garth Heutel","Nolan Miller","David Molitor","Julian Reif"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180279","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d493e23ea7eea58","title":"Leave‐Out Estimation of Variance Components","abstract":"We propose leave‐out estimators of quadratic forms designed for the study of linear models with unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include analysis of variance and tests of linear restrictions in models with many regressors. An approximation algorithm is provided that enables accurate computation of the estimator in very large data sets. We study the large sample properties of our estimator allowing the number of regressors to grow in proportion to the number of observations. Consistency is established in a variety of settings where plug‐in methods and estimators predicated on homoscedasticity exhibit first‐order biases. For quadratic forms of increasing rank, the limiting distribution can be represented by a linear combination of normal and non‐central χ 2 random variables, with normality ensuing under strong identification. Standard error estimators are proposed that enable tests of linear restrictions and the construction of uniformly valid confidence intervals for quadratic forms of interest. We find in Italian social security records that leave‐out estimates of a variance decomposition in a two‐way fixed effects model of wage determination yield substantially different conclusions regarding the relative contribution of workers, firms, and worker‐firm sorting to wage inequality than conventional methods. Monte Carlo exercises corroborate the accuracy of our asymptotic approximations, with clear evidence of non‐normality emerging when worker mobility between blocks of firms is limited.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Patrick Kline","Raffaele Saggio","Mikkel Sølvsten"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16410","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d4a76e64cb247b0","title":"The determinants of multilateral bargaining: a comprehensive analysis of Baron and Ferejohn majoritarian bargaining experiments","abstract":"We analyze the data sets of all majoritarian Baron and Ferejohn (Am Political Sci Rev 83(4):1181–1206, 1989) experiments through 2018. By exploiting the variation of the experimental parameters, we are able to identify how group size, discount factor (cost of agreement delay), voting weights, and communication affect bargaining outcomes and dynamics. The outcomes are qualitatively in line with the stationary subgame perfect equilibrium, i.e., minimum winning coalitions are modal; proposers demand larger shares than non-proposers; and most agreements are reached without delay. Experience and communication between players move outcomes closer to the equilibrium. However, bargaining dynamics are not stationary. Behavior following a disagreement is history-dependent in the form of retaliation towards failed proposers and their supporters, which, if rationally expected, may deter proposers from demanding high shares.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Andrzej Baranski","Rebecca B. Morton"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09734-7","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d57b9ba1bfa3381","title":"Wood product differentiation in age-structured forestry","abstract":"We develop the classic market-level, age-structured forest model by extending the description of forestry output from homogenous wood to a set of differentiated outputs such as sawlogs and biofuels. The extension changes several most established results on the long-run sustainable market equilibrium of forestry. We show the existence of an optimal steady state with two (or more) simultaneous rotation periods. This equilibrium yields a smooth timber flow without normal forest structure and thus deviates from existing normal forest results as well as results on equilibrium cycles. We further show that the optimal rotation structure depends on wood product demand and the demand for land outside forestry, another feature that is absent in previous model formulations.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Matti Laukkanen","Olli Tahvonen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101374","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9d5eb07f52f4c28b","title":"The financial connectedness between eurozone core and periphery: A disaggregated view","abstract":"This paper examines the financial stress interconnectedness among Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (GIIPS) economies and Germany. Based on market-level financial stress indices, we examine the stress transmission process as well as the causal network relationships in banking sector, bond, money, and stock markets. The period under investigation, 2001–2013, allows to test the effects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis as well as the subsequent European sovereign crisis. Using two alternative techniques for connectedness analysis, our evidence suggests that the peripheral economies of Italy and Spain play a highly significant role in the stress transmission in all markets, especially in the cases of banks and equity markets. Moreover, we visualize our results using network analysis. Contrary to common wisdom, Portugal, Ireland, and mainly Greece do not seem to have an important role in amplifying stress levels.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Georgios Magkonis","Andreas Tsopanakis"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000998","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d632bbb5245077d","title":"“Good” Firms, Worker Flows, and Local Productivity","abstract":"This paper is the first to present direct evidence showing how localized knowledge spillovers arise from workers changing jobs within the same local labor market. Using a unique data set combining Social Security earnings records and balance sheet information for the Veneto region of Italy, I first identify a set of highly productive firms, then show that hiring workers with experience at these firms significantly increases the productivity of other firms. My findings imply that worker flows explain around 10% of the productivity gains experienced by incumbent firms when new highly productive firms are added to a local labor market.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Michel Serafinelli"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","N","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/702628","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d723e07829eb976","title":"Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital","abstract":"Higher wages are generally thought to increase human capital production, particularly in the developing world. We introduce a simple model of human capital production in which investments and time allocation differ by age. Using data on test scores and schooling from rural India, we show that higher wages increase human capital investment in early life (in utero to age 2) but decrease human capital from age 5 to 16. Children switch out of school into productive work when rainfall is higher. The opportunity cost of schooling, even for fairly young children, is an important factor in determining overall human capital investment.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Manisha Shah","Bryce Millett Steinberg"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690828","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d787c9168e9f6d9","title":"Central bank transparency, exchange rates, and demand imbalances","abstract":"Do the benefits of central bank transparency depend on the structure of financial markets? We address this question in a two-country model with dispersed information among price-setting firms. The volatility of the real exchange rate is non-monotonic in the precision of public communications. Despite this non-monotonicity, under complete markets, greater provision of public information always improves welfare and full transparency is optimal. By contrast, under incomplete markets, more accurate public signals can decrease welfare by exacerbating the cost of cross-country demand imbalances. If the trade elasticity is low, optimal public announcements are intentionally imprecise.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Giacomo Candian"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.03.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9d8a81606cde7d28","title":"Product quality or market regulation? Explaining the slow growth of Europe's wine cooperatives, 1880–1980","abstract":"Wine cooperatives were relatively scarce in Europe before the Second World War, but by the 1980s accounted for more than half of all wines made in France, Italy, and Spain, the three major producer countries. Unlike Danish dairy cooperatives, whose success before the First World War was linked to their ability to improve product quality and compete in high‐value niche markets, wine cooperatives are often associated with the production of large volumes of low‐quality products. This article argues that the initial slow diffusion of wine cooperatives was caused by the difficulties of improving quality due to environmental conditions in European vineyards (‘terroir’) and measurement problems, rather than institutional shortcomings. Cooperatives only became widespread when the state found them a useful instrument to regulate markets, especially after 1950. The problems associated with poor wine quality were never resolved, and cooperatives have become increasingly uncompetitive in the market place, especially following the major decline in per capita consumption and shift towards premium wines from the 1980s.","wordCount":164,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Eva Fernández","James Simpson"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12338","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d99301024d9f093","title":"Debt stabilization in the presence of endogenous risk premia: A dynamic game approach","abstract":"This paper focuses on the possibility that financial markets require risk premia on holding sovereign debt of countries that appear vulnerable from a fiscal sustainability perspective. Both the level of debt as well as the rate of change of debt are assumed to impact on the risk premium. We analyze the impact of such an endogenous risk premium in a simple debt game between a monetary and a fiscal player, as introduced by [Tabellini (1986) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 10, 427–442]. The risk premium term adds a nonlinearity to the linear model in case risk premia are absent. We analyze outcomes in case of noncooperative open-loop Nash strategies and in case of cooperative strategies and consider the workings of the risk premium as a market-based disciplining device (in case of high debt) and adjustment rewarding device (in case of a declining debt trajectory).","wordCount":145,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Tzanis Anevlavis","George P. Papavassilopoulos","Jacob Engwerda","Bas van Aarle"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000906","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9d9e6c386f14305b","title":"Complementary Monopolies and Bargaining","abstract":"How should complementarities affect antitrust merger policy? I introduce a two-stage strategic model in which complementary-input monopolists offer supply schedules to producers and then engage in bilateral bargaining with producers. The main result is that there is a unique weakly dominant strategy equilibrium, the equilibrium attains the joint-profit-maximizing outcome, and output equals that of a bundling monopoly. The result holds with perfect competition in the downstream market with both unit capacity and multiunit capacity. The result also holds with oligopoly competition in the downstream market. The result contrasts with the Cournot effect, which states that complementary-input monopolists choose total prices that are greater than the bundled-monopoly level. The analysis shows that consumers’ surplus and total producers’ surplus are greater with supply schedules and bargaining than with posted-price competition. The analysis has implications for antitrust policy toward vertical and conglomerate mergers.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Daniel F. Spulber"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692586","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9da6af5797baa2d9","title":"Equality of opportunity and human capital accumulation: Motivational effect of a nationwide scholarship in Colombia","abstract":"We study the ex ante motivational effect of a nationwide merit and need-based scholarship in Colombia, which granted full scholarships to low-income students at high-quality universities. Specifically, we analyze how the opportunity to receive the scholarship, influenced the performance of low-income students in the national high-school exit and 9th grade exams, and their university enrollment rates. Following a differences-in-discontinuity design, we find that the opportunity to receive the scholarship significantly increased test scores at the national high school exit exam at the top of the distribution. At the 90th percentile of the distribution, eligibility for the scholarship reduced the socioeconomic achievement gap by 16 percent. We also document an increase in the post-secondary enrollment of low-income students at the top of their score distribution, even for the non-recipients of the scholarship. Finally, we estimate a positive effect on the test scores of younger 9th grade students, affecting a broader range of the distribution. Our results highlight how opportunities for social mobility encourage human capital accumulation by low-income students, thus contributing to breaking the persistence of poverty and inequality.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Rachid Laajaj","Andrés Moya","Fabio Sánchez"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102754","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9da83ac98b5ea9a7","title":"Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?","abstract":"This study examines if blockchain fundamentals determine cryptoasset prices. Previous research has shown that non-fundamental factors affect cryptoasset prices however, whether blockchain fundamentals affect cryptoasset prices, lacks empirical research. Using data for 652 cryptoassets, I specify active addresses-to-network value as a valuation metric that captures transaction benefits. I find anomalous returns that increase with active addresses-to-network value ratio, a proxy for the value anomaly. Cryptoassets with a high active addresses-to-network value ratio yield on average 3.7 percentage points higher weekly returns than cryptoassets with low active addresses-to-network value ratio, and comparable size. A four-factor model directed at capturing the value pattern in average returns performs better than the three-factor model. Importantly, my results suggest that cryptoasset prices are related to their blockchain fundamentals.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Luca J. Liebi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105777","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9dbf62318b70cd90","title":"Incomes and income inequality in Stockholm, 1870–1970: Evidence from micro data","abstract":"This paper analyzes incomes and income inequality in Stockholm from 1870 to 1970. The paper builds on a new dataset of 38,022 randomly sampled Stockholm residents 1870–1950, with information on income, occupation, age, gender, and household composition. This is complemented by the Census of 1930 and a Statistics Sweden sample for 1960 and 1970. Incomes were very unequally distributed between 1870 and 1920, with Gini coefficients of pre-tax income around sixty. After 1920 inequality fell quite steadily. A drop in capital incomes contributed, and when looking at post-tax incomes the growth of progressive taxation after 1930 also contributed, but most of the high inequality up to 1920 and equalization after this date depended on the distribution of labour income. In the early 1900s professional groups had huge income advantages over workers, but this advantage was drastically reduced after 1920 when working-class incomes grew rapidly. An important mechanism of income growth was the upgrading of the jobs structure, highlighting the importance of structural change, beyond the Kuznetsian binary of agriculture–manufacturing, for understanding long-run economic inequality.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Erik Bengtsson","Jakob Molinder"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101568","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9dc64067284de876","title":"Voting from abroad: Assessing the impact of local turnout on migrants’ voting behavior","abstract":"Over 150 countries have laws allowing expatriate citizens to vote in their country of origin. Yet, little is known about their voting behavior and how this is affected by their host countries. Using unique micro-data on Chilean expatriates living in Europe and exploiting increases in the cost of voting caused by rainfall during the 2014 European Parliament election day in districts where Chileans reside, we show that 1 percentage point increase in the host-country local turnout decreases expatriates’ electoral participation in their home-country elections by nearly 1 percentage point. The result is driven by expatriates who were better integrated in the host-country societies. Evidence from surveys shows that higher host turnout promotes expatriates’ participation in host-country organizations and less in home-country organizations. Overall, our results suggest that in communities with high-political participation, migrants engage more with the local politics at the expense of their home-country politics.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Divya Dev","Rubén Poblete‐Cazenave","Alessandro Toppeta"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.05.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9de6fa5261077a98","title":"How does caste affect entrepreneurship? birth versus worth","abstract":"Informal institutions play an important role in resource allocation across entrepreneurs in developing countries. I focus on the caste system in India and document three stylized facts. First, entrepreneurs of historically disadvantaged castes have a higher average revenue product of capital, arpk, relative to high-caste enterprises. Second, cross-caste differences in arpk are driven by small enterprises. Third, the majority of these differences are concentrated in financially underdeveloped regions. In a model of entrepreneurship, I find that the cross-caste differences in arpk are explained by differences in access to credit and that such asymmetries reduce output per capita by 5.6%.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Sampreet Singh Goraya"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9de9a28ff13ed1b1","title":"Does reputation matter? Evidence from share repurchases","abstract":"This paper examines whether the stock market considers the firm's reputation established through a history of management earnings forecasting when it evaluates open market repurchase announcements. We refer to this established reputation as the firm's “forecast reputation”. We find that while the stock market considers the firm's “repurchase reputation” (proxied by prior repurchase completion rates), it also considers the firm's forecast reputation established from the accuracy of prior management earnings forecasting, suggesting a spillover effect of forecast reputation. Further, interaction test between the two reputation variables reveals that the market reacts more to the firm's forecast reputation when its repurchase reputation is low. Additional analyses suggest that when a firm announces a share repurchase program for the first time (i.e., when there is no repurchase reputation), investors turn to the forecast reputation within the firm as an alternative source of reputation, on which the credibility of repurchase announcements is assessed. Overall, our study provides evidence that firms establish a reputation in the market through multiple sources of announcements.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Koji Ota","Hironori Kawase","David Lau"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.05.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9df956fd747a8513","title":"Employment inequality: Why do the low-skilled work less now?","abstract":"Low-skilled prime-age men are less likely to be employed than high-skilled prime-age men, and the differential has increased since the 1970s. I build a search model encompassing three explanations: (1) automation and trade reduced the demand for low-skilled workers; (2) health, welfare, and recreational gaming/computer technology reduced the supply of low-skilled workers; and (3) factors affecting job search, such as online job boards, reduced frictions for high-skilled workers. I find a shift in demand away from low-skilled workers was the leading cause, a shift in supply had little effect, and search frictions actually reduced employment inequality.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Erin Wolcott"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.09.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9dffb0d090db95a1","title":"Disruptive Change in the Taxi Business: The Case of Uber","abstract":"In most cities, the taxi industry is highly regulated and has restricted entry. Ride sharing services, such as Uber and Lyft, which use mobile internet technology to connect passengers and drivers, have begun to compete with traditional taxis. This paper examines the efficiency of ride sharing services vis-a-vis taxis. In most cities with data available, UberX drivers spend a significantly higher fraction of their time, and drive a substantially higher share of miles, with a passenger in their car than do taxi drivers. Reasons for this efficiency advantage are explored.","wordCount":90,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Judd Cramer","Alan B. Krueger"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20161002","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9e03812d74bff2c6","title":"The Industrial Organization of the Mafia","abstract":"This paper uses economic reasoning to analyze the organization of one of the most successful criminal groups in modern US history: La Cosa Nostra (LCN). Drawing on recently declassified Federal Bureau of Investigation reports and a hand-collected data set, I argue that the costs of violent disputes are key for an economic understanding of La Cosa Nostra’s core institutions. Violent disputes were costly as they consumed resources, were destructive, and raised the group’s profile. As a member did not bear the full costs of a profile-raising police investigation, each had a perverse incentive to resolve a dispute with violence. Hierarchical firms and a sophisticated court system were the LCN’s solution. They gave bosses the authority and incentive to limit violent disputes and to use violence judiciously. La Cosa Nostra’s longevity and success are, in part, a testament to these institutions’ efficacy. Why can’t we solve our problems peacefully among ourselves? (Bonanno 2013, p. 256)","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Henry A. Thompson"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/727850","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9e12d6a22d83380e","title":"Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa","abstract":"Africa is likely to experience warming and increased climate variability by the late 21st century. Climate extremes have been linked to adverse economic outcomes. Hence, adaptation is a key component of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreements and development assistance. Effective climate adaptation policy requires an understanding of how temperature and rainfall variability affect migration patterns. Yet, how individuals in developing countries manage climate variation is poorly understood, especially in Africa. Combining high-resolution climate data with panel micro-data on migration, labor participation, and demographics, we employ regression analysis to assess temporary migration responses to local temperature and precipitation anomalies in four East African countries. We find that climate impacts are most pronounced in urban areas, with a standard deviation temperature increase and rainfall decrease leading to respective 10 and 12 percent declines in out-migration relative to mean values. Evidence from other labor market outcomes suggests that urban out-migration is not associated with reduced local employment opportunities. Instead, declines in urban out-migration appear to coincide with negative local climate employment impacts. These results challenge the narrative that temporary out-migration serves as a safety valve during climate extremes and that climate change will most strongly affect out-migration rates from rural areas in developing countries.","wordCount":205,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Valerie Mueller","Glenn Sheriff","Xiaoya Dou","Clark Gray"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e13861610cc06ac","title":"Information and price dispersion: Theory and evidence","abstract":"Limited information is the key element generating price dispersion in models of homogeneous‐goods markets. We show that the global relationship between information and price dispersion is an inverse‐U shape. We test this mechanism for the retail gasoline market using a new measure of information based on commuter data from Austria. Commuters sample gasoline prices on their commuting route, providing us with spatial variation in the share of informed consumers. Our empirical estimates are in line with the theoretical predictions. We also quantify how information affects average prices paid and the distribution of surplus in the gasoline market.","wordCount":97,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Dieter Pennerstorfer","Philipp Schmidt‐Dengler","Nicolas Schutz","Christoph R. Weiss","Biliana Yontcheva"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12443","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e19c8c9504037b9","title":"Accounting for unintended ecological effects of our electric future: Optimizing lithium mining and biodiversity preservation in the Chilean High-Andean wetlands","abstract":"The intersection of mining activities and the preservation of fragile ecosystems presents a challenge, exemplified by the coexistence of lithium resources and the pristine High-Andean wetlands. In this study, we demonstrate the transformative potential of accounting for the intrinsic non-use values associated with these vital wetlands. By incorporating these values, we not only reshape optimal mining patterns but also forge a path towards enhanced environmental conservation. To quantify the value of affected biodiversity and ecosystems, we employ a meta-analytic benefit transfer function. Subsequently, we integrate these values into a competitive land use model that treats ecosystem services as valuable assets and incorporates the opportunity costs associated with mining activities. The results of our study reveal a compelling narrative: when the value of wetland ecosystems is considered, the pace of lithium extraction is markedly affected. The extent of this impact varies depending on factors such as wetland size, ecosystem service value, damage levels, and resource rents. By quantifying the ecological impacts of mining in economic terms, our findings present an avenue for policymakers to design a mineral extraction tax that complements a mitigation hierarchy to conserve these precious ecosystems.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Diana Roa","Ståle Navrud","Knut Einar Rosendahl"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101389","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e1fd12799d2bfee","title":"Household Bargaining and Spending on Children: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania","abstract":"This paper studies whether an increase in women's intrahousehold bargaining power causes couples to allocate more resources to their child's education, and, if so, what the underlying mechanisms for this might be. We conduct a between‐subject lab experiment with couples and vary the relative bargaining power between spouses. The paper provides two main insights. First, increasing the wife's bargaining power improves gender equality in allocation to children's education. However, it does not increase the amount invested in the child's education. Second, we show that the difference in time preferences between spouses matters for how much the household invests in the child's education. It benefits the child that the most patient spouse has more relative bargaining power. This implies that increasing the wife's bargaining power may reduce the allocation to the child's education if she is the less patient spouse. The results provide new insights into the current debate on female empowerment, and highlight the importance of incorporating a broader set of preferences in the analysis of intrahousehold decision‐making.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Charlotte Ringdal","Ingrid Hoem Sjursen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12353","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e2af67252daeb2d","title":"The long-run value of electricity reliability in India","abstract":"This paper evaluates residential consumers’ electricity consumption and appliance investment responses to power outages from 2015 to 2019 in Delhi, India. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of features of the electricity distribution network in the service territory of one of Delhi’s regulated distribution utilities that exposes similar customers to plausibly exogenous annual variation in electricity reliability. Using original household survey data and four years of billing and power outage records for more than one million customers, we estimate that an additional hour per month of power outages reduced electricity consumption by 4.8 percent. These estimates suggest that households are willing to pay USD 1.50 per kWh of lost consumption, which is more than 25 times the average price they pay for grid electricity.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Shefali Khanna","Kevin Rowe"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101425","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e4d536f6425978b","title":"Interest rates and the volatility and correlation of commodity prices","abstract":"We propose a novel explanation for the observed increase in the correlation of commodity prices over the past decade. In contrast to theories that rely on the increased influence of financial speculators, we examine the effect of interest rates on the volatility and correlation of commodity prices via a panel GARCH model. In theory, lower interest rates decrease the volatility of prices, as lower inventory costs promote the smoothing of transient shocks, and increase price correlation if common shocks are more persistent than idiosyncratic shocks. Empirically, we find that price volatility attributable to transitory shocks declines with interest rates, whereas particularly for metals prices, price correlation increases as interest rates decline.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Joseph W. Gruber","Robert J. Vigfusson"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9e676d2a2a8560cf","title":"The accuracy of hospital merger screening methods","abstract":"This article analyzes the accuracy of various prospective hospital merger screening methods used by antitrust agencies and the courts. The predictions of the screening methods calculated with pre‐merger data are compared with the actual post‐merger price changes of 28 hospital mergers measured relative to controls. The evaluated screening methods include traditional structural measures (e.g., Herfindahl‐Hirschman Index), measures derived from hospital competition models (e.g., diversion ratios, willingness‐to‐pay, and upward pricing pressure), and hospital merger simulation. Willingness‐to‐pay and upward pricing pressure are found to be more accurate at flagging potentially anticompetitive mergers for further investigation than traditional methods.","wordCount":96,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Christopher Garmon"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12215","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9e7a45e7ab3138b2","title":"Children having children: early motherhood and offspring human capital in India","abstract":"Using panel data from India, this paper investigates the effect of early maternal age on offspring human capital, contributing to the scarce evidence on this phenomenon, especially in the context of a developing country. The analysis relies on mother fixed effects to allow for unobserved differences between mothers and employs a variety of empirical strategies to address remaining sibling-specific concerns. Our results indicate that children born to young mothers are shorter for their age, with stronger effects for girls born to very young mothers. We also find some evidence suggesting that children born to very young mothers perform worse in math. By exploring the evolution of effects over time for the first time in the literature, we find that the height effect weakens as children age. Further analysis suggests both biological and behavioral factors as transmission channels. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00946-0.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Marcello Pérez-Alvarez","Marta Favara"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00946-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e7acb76f12bf934","title":"The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on corporate trade credit financing","abstract":"Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) model, this study investigates the causal relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and trade credit financing. We find that the pandemic significantly increases trade credit financing for companies that are strongly affected by COVID-19. This may because of the increasing cost of bank lending; companies turn to more flexible and less costly alternatives as a result. A parallel trend test supports this finding. This research provides implications for corporate managers, supply chain partners, and capital market investors.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Wenlan Xie","Haowen Tian"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111339","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e8d8082752f2582","title":"Institutional investors and post-ICO performance: an empirical analysis of investor returns in initial coin offerings (ICOs)","abstract":"We examine the role of institutional investors in initial coin offerings (ICOs). Taking a financial investor's perspective, we assess the determinants of post-ICO performance via buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR) in a sample of 565 ICO ventures. Conceptually, we argue that institutional investors' superior screening (selection effect) and coaching abilities (treatment effect) enable them to partly overcome the information asymmetry of the ICO context and extract informational rents from their ICO investments. We find that institutional investor backing is indeed associated with higher post-ICO performance. Disentangling selection and treatment effects econometrically, we find that both of these effects explain the positive impact institutional investors have on post-ICO performance. Overall, our results highlight the importance of institutional investors in the ICO context.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Christian Fisch","Paul P. Momtaz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101679","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9e946d28aa131b76","title":"Unconventional monetary policy, financial frictions, and the equity tandem","abstract":"A key feature of many DSGE frameworks designed to model Quantitative Easing (QE) is that net worth only plays a relevant role on bank’s balance sheets. In reality, however, net worth of borrowers and lenders plays a relevant role in financing investment projects. I show that this equity tandem has important implications. Net worth of non-financial firms acts as a first line of defense, since non-financial firm’s balance sheets are hit in the first place by real sector shocks. Modeling the equity tandem increases the resilience of the model and, therefore, implies smaller gains of unconventional monetary policy. A novel insight from the simultaneous modeling of borrowers and lenders net worth is that by decreasing the cost of external finance a QE policy is redistributing net worth from banks to non-financial firms. Additionally, considering the reverse operation, a credibly announced Quantitative Tightening (QT), helps to stabilize the spread between the return to capital and the deposit rate during the zero lower bound period. However, different anticipated QT paths are shown to have little consequences for output and inflation.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Roland von Campe"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103580","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9ea1d6530edf407d","title":"Unilateral stability in matching problems","abstract":"The canonical solution concept used in matching problems is pairwise stability, whose premise is that harmony is disrupted by any two agents intentionally leaving their partners to be with each other. We instead focus on scenarios in which harmony is disrupted merely by a single agent unilaterally initiating contact with a member of a different pair, whether or not his approach is reciprocated. A variety of solution concepts are proposed in which taboos, status, or power systematically limit such initiatives in order to achieve harmony.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Michael Richter","Ariel Rubinstein"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105780","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9ea7919cd82707ab","title":"Geopolitical risk perceptions","abstract":"Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Yevheniia Bondarenko","Vivien Lewis","Matthias Rottner","Yves S. Schüler"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9eb0e33253363bb1","title":"A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling","abstract":"The paper sets out a method for handling sign restrictions in systems of simultaneous equations which are only partially identified. These sign restrictions might apply to either structural equation parameters or functions of them such as impulse responses. Initially a range of values for the unidentified parameters are generated and then the role of sign restrictions is to narrow the range. It is simple to apply and can be handled in packages such as EViews and Stata. Examples are given of how to implement it in a number of cases where there are both parametric and sign restrictions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sam Ouliaris","Adrian Pagan"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12137","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9eb2bd3208ffe387","title":"Experiments on centralized school choice and college admissions: a survey","abstract":"The paper surveys the experimental literature on centralized matching markets, covering school choice and college admissions models. In the school choice model, one side of the market (schools) is not strategic, and rules (priorities) guide the acceptance decisions. The model covers applications such as school choice programs, centralized university admissions in many countries, and the centralized assignment of teachers to schools. In the college admissions model, both sides of the market are strategic. It applies to college and university admissions in countries where universities can select students, and centralized labor markets such as the assignment of doctors to hospitals. The survey discusses, among other things, the comparison of various centralized mechanisms, the optimality of participants’ strategies, learning by applicants and their behavioral biases, as well as the role of communication, information, and advice. The main experimental findings considered in the survey concern truth-telling and strategic manipulations by the agents, as well as the stability and efficiency of the matching outcome.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Rustamdjan Hakimov","Dorothea Kübler"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09667-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9eb538c4532a4f1f","title":"Hospital quality interdependence in a competitive institutional environment: Evidence from Italy","abstract":"In this paper we explore the geographical scope of hospital competition on quality, using Italian data on over 207,000 patients admitted to 174 hospitals located in the Lombardy region in the years 2008–2014. We propose an economic framework that incorporates both local and global forms of quality competition among hospitals, the latter emerging from periodically released hospital performance rankings. Under this framework, we derive the hospital reaction functions and, accordingly, we characterize the structure of interdependence among hospital qualities. We employ recent methods from the graphical modelling literature to estimate the set of local rivals for each hospital, as well as the degree of global interdependence among hospitals. Consistently with our micro-founded framework, our results show a significant positive degree of short- and long-range dependence, suggesting the existence of forms of local and global competition amongst hospitals with relevant implications for health care policy.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Domenico Lisi","Francesco Moscone","Elisa Tosetti","Veronica Vinciotti"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103696","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9eb8692552961e62","title":"Abolishing biofuel policies: Possible impacts on agricultural price levels, price variability and global food security","abstract":"In this paper we assess the impact of abolishing biofuel policies (mandates, tax credits, import and export tariffs) on agricultural price levels and price variability as well as some aspects related to global food security. For the analysis we employ a recursive-dynamic agricultural multi-commodity model within a stochastic framework. Results of the 10-years forward looking scenario indicate that the removal of biofuel policies would have a significant effect on price variability of biofuels, but only a marginal impact on the variability of agricultural commodity prices. Without biofuel policies, global biofuel demand would decrease by 25% for ethanol and 32% for biodiesel. Moreover, prices would only moderately decrease for ethanol feedstock commodities like wheat and coarse grains, while prices for biodiesel feedstock commodities, specifically vegetable oils, would be more affected. Due to competing uses of crop production such as feed and industrial use, abolishing biofuel policies would not necessarily lead to an increase in global food security, as food use increases would remain low for most crops and regions.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Sergio René Araujo Enciso","Thomas Fellmann","Ignácio Pérez Domínguez","Fabien Santini"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.01.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9eb94073114e6262","title":"Do Lower Search Costs Benefit Intermediaries?","abstract":"Intermediaries—such as Amazon, Alibaba Group, and Walmart—play critical roles in digital markets: This paper proposes a model for analyzing how search cost affects their market outcomes. Distinguished from existing search literature, we introduce network effects to the market by allowing buyers to have positive preferences for product variety. In addition, we relax the exogenous demand and supply assumptions in the conventional search literature to study how search affects participation on both sides of the market. Through the model, we focus on studying and comparing two important types of intermediary: the two-sided platform; and the one-sided retailer. We find that reducing search costs does not necessarily increase the profit of both intermediary types. Furthermore, its influences are highly varied—depending on both the type of intermediary and its buyers’ preferences for variety.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Muxin Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09921-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9ebb5525e475584c","title":"A home for all within planetary boundaries: Pathways for meeting England's housing needs without transgressing national climate and biodiversity goals","abstract":"Secure housing is core to the Sustainable Development Goals and a fundamental human right. However, potential conflicts between housing and sustainability objectives remain under-researched. We explore the impact of current English government housing policy, and alternative housing strategies, on national carbon and biodiversity goals. Using material flow and land use change/biodiversity models, we estimate from 2022 to 2050 under current policy housing alone would consume 104% of England's cumulative carbon budget (2.6/2.5Gt [50% chance of < 1.5 °C]); 12% from the construction and operation of newbuilds and 92% from the existing stock. Housing expansion also potentially conflicts with England's biodiversity targets. However, meeting greater housing need without rapid housing expansion is theoretically possible. We review solutions including improving affordability by reducing demand for homes as financial assets, macroprudential policy, expanding social housing, and reducing underutilisation of floor-space. Transitioning to housing strategies which slow housing expansion and accelerate low-carbon retrofits would achieve lower emissions, but we show that they face an unfavourable political economy and structural economic barriers.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Sophus zu Ermgassen","Michał Drewniok","Joseph W. Bull","Christine Corlet Walker","Mattia Mancini","Josh Ryan‐Collins","André Cabrera Serrenho"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107562","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9ec8bfb88badb932","title":"Option gamma and stock returns","abstract":"Stocks with high net gamma exposure systematically underperform stocks with low net gamma exposure. This effect is distinct from other well-known return predictors, and survives many robustness checks. We show that stocks with low net gamma exposure negatively predict future realized volatility, and argue that investors command a risk premium to hold low net gamma exposure stocks, which are riskier. Lastly, we show that the volatility predictability stems from a non-informational channel, and not from private information.","wordCount":77,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Amar Soebhag"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101442","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9ecb5a226ccbf31b","title":"Hotel demand before, during, and after sports events: Evidence from charlotte, north carolina","abstract":"This paper uses daily hotel occupancy data to examine the effects of a wide variety of political and sporting events on the hotel room market of Charlotte, North Carolina from 2005 to 2014. Two political conventions and NASCAR auto races are associated with large increases in hotel occupancy, prices, and revenue, but many other events have no discernable effect on Charlotte's hotel market. The results also indicate that occupancy effects before or after most events are modest at best. Back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations show incremental hotel‐tax receipts fall short of the debt service incurred in constructing and maintaining the city's sports venues.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Craig A. Depken","E. Frank Stephenson"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12572","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9ecc27637f7d22cb","title":"Better Lucky Than Rich? Welfare Analysis of Automobile Licence Allocations in Beijing and Shanghai","abstract":"Economists often favour market-based mechanisms over non-market based mechanisms to allocate scarce public resources on grounds of economic efficiency and revenue generation. When the usage of the resources in question generates type-dependent negative externalities, the welfare comparison can become ambiguous. Both types of allocation mechanisms are being implemented in China's major cities to distribute limited vehicle licences as a measure to combat worsening traffic congestion and air pollution. While Beijing employs non-transferable lotteries, Shanghai uses an auction system. This article empirically quantifies the welfare consequences of the two mechanisms by taking into account both allocation efficiency and automobile externalities post-allocation. Our analysis shows that different allocation mechanisms lead to dramatic differences in social welfare. Although Beijing's lottery system has a large advantage in reducing automobile externalities over auction, the advantage is offset by the significant allocative cost from misallocation. The lottery system in Beijing resulted in a social welfare loss of 30 billion Yuan (nearly $5 billion) in 2012 alone. A uniform-price auction would have generated nearly 20 billion Yuan to Beijing municipal government, more than covering all its subsidies to the local public transit system.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Shanjun Li"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx067","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9ecc3d7df2da9427","title":"From Hashtag to Hate Crime: Twitter and Antiminority Sentiment","abstract":"We study whether social media can amplify antiminority sentiment with a focus on Donald Trump’s political rise. Using an instrumental variable strategy based on Twitter’s early adopters at the South by Southwest festival in 2007, we find that higher Twitter use in a county is associated with a sizeable increase in anti-Muslim hate crimes after the 2016 presidential primaries. Trump’s tweets about Muslims predict increases in xenophobic tweets by his followers, cable news mentions of Muslims, and hate crimes on the following days. These results suggest that social media content can affect real-life out-comes.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Karsten Müller","Carlo Schwarz"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20210211","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9eda3d83bfa22836","title":"The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers","abstract":"Does fiscal policy stimulate output? Structural vector autoregressions have been used to address this question, but no stylized facts have emerged. This paper makes two contributions. First, I derive analytical relationships between the output elasticities of tax revenue and government expenditures, and fiscal multipliers. I show that different priors about elasticities implied by the identification schemes generate a large dispersion in the estimates of tax and spending multipliers. Second, I estimate fiscal multipliers consistent with prior distributions of the elasticities computed by a variety of empirical strategies, and by employing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. I document three findings for the U.S. for the period 1947-2010. First, the impact tax multiplier is close to 0. Second, the impact spending multiplier ranges between 0.35 and 1. Third, the probability that the spending multiplier is larger than the tax multiplier is above 0.8, for up to four years after policy interventions.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Dario Caldara","Christophe Kamps"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx030","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9ee805de193c55dc","title":"Supermarket contracts and smallholder farmers: Implications for income and multidimensional poverty","abstract":"Food systems in developing countries are changing rapidly with a growing role of modern supermarkets. Supermarkets influence supply chains and the way agricultural products are sourced from farmers. Especially for the procurement of fresh fruits and vegetables, supermarkets often contract farmers directly to ensure consistent and high-quality supply. One important question, which is addressed here, is whether smallholder farmers benefit from supermarket contracts. Previous studies address this question, but mostly focus on income effects without exploring implications for other dimensions of household welfare, such as nutrition, health, or housing conditions. Moreover, most existing studies rely on cross-section data. We add to the literature by analyzing effects of supermarket contracts on income and multidimensional poverty using three rounds of panel data collected from smallholder vegetable farmers in Kenya and econometric models with household fixed effects. On average, supermarket contracts increase household income by over 40%. We also find significant reductions in income poverty and multidimensional poverty. Quantile regressions show that farmers in all income groups benefit, but richer households benefit more than poorer ones in absolute terms. However, supermarket contracts cause the strongest reductions in multidimensional deprivations among the poorest households.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Sylvester Ogutu","Dennis O. Ochieng","Matin Qaim"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101940","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9f004aad7306db30","title":"Benefits of Increasing Information Accuracy in Variable Rate Technologies","abstract":"Improvements in the sustainability of agricultural production depend essentially on advances in the efficient use of nitrogen. Precision farming promises solutions in this respect. Variable rate technologies allow the right quantities of fertilizer to be applied at the right place. This helps to both maintain yields and avoid nitrogen losses. However, these technologies are still not widely adopted, especially in small-scale farming systems. Recent developments in sensing technologies, like drones or satellites, open up new opportunities for variable rate technologies. In this paper, we develop a bio-economic modelling framework to assess the usefulness of different sensing approaches in variable rate fertilization to measure environmental heterogeneity at field level, ranging from satellite imagery to drones and handheld N-sensors. We assess the utility of these sensing technologies and quantify the effects on yields, nitrogen input and associated net returns using wheat production in Switzerland as our case study. Our results show that net profits increase when a high-resolution technology is applied to fields which exhibit higher spatial heterogeneity of soil conditions and lower spatial autocorrelation of different soil types. However, even with a high degree of spatial heterogeneity within a field, both the overall utility of variable rate fertilization and the absolute differences in the net returns between the technologies remain low. Our results suggest that the additional cost of using a drone that provides the highest resolution should not exceed 4.5 CHF/ha compared to the use of a standard N-sensor or satellite imagery. Thus, the adoption of variable rate technologies depends essentially on the additional economic and environmental effects they generate. Therefore, it might be necessary to implement specific policy measures, such as taxes on nitrogen in combination with subsidies. Moreover, specific technology providers, such as contractors, may play a vital role in technology uptake since the economic benefits might only play out at larger spatial levels.","wordCount":306,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Karin Späti","Robert Huber","Robert Finger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107047","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9f21c65f178daddd","title":"Liking what others “Like”: using Facebook to identify determinants of conformity","abstract":"In this paper we explore the micro-level determinants of conformity. Members of the social networking service Facebook express positive support to content on the website by clicking a Like button. We set up a natural field experiment to test whether users are more prone to support content if someone else has done so before. To find out to what extent conformity depends on group size and social ties we use three different treatment conditions: (1) one stranger has Liked the content, (2) three strangers have Liked the content, and (3) a friend has Liked the content. The results show that one Like from a single stranger had no impact. However, increasing the size of the influencing group doubled the probability that subjects expressed positive support. Friendship ties were also decisive. People were, on average, four times more likely to press the Like button if a friend, rather than a stranger, had done so before them. The existence of threshold effects in our experiment clearly shows that both group size and social proximity matters when opinions are shaped.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Johan Egebark","Mathias Ekström"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9552-1","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f277b87d5e2f103","title":"Why Has Urban Inequality Increased?","abstract":"This paper examines mechanisms driving the more rapid increases in wage inequality in larger cities between 1980 and 2007. Production function estimates indicate strong evidence of capital–skill complementarity and increases in the skill bias of agglomeration economies in the context of rapid skill-biased technical change. Immigration shocks are the source of identifying variation across cities in changes to the relative supply of skilled versus unskilled labor. Estimates indicate that changes in the factor biases of agglomeration economies rationalize at least 80 percent of the more rapid increases in wage inequality in larger cities.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Nathaniel Brandt Baum-Snow","Matthew Freedman","Ronni Pavan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160510","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f2d719a712acc0a","title":"The electoral consequences of environmental accidents: Evidence from Chernobyl","abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between environmental accidents and voting. Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties entered parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the environmentalist Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Detailed individual-level survey data suggests that resistance to nuclear energy increased in fallout-effected areas after the accident, and that this change was driven by voters who followed local media closely.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Adrian Mehic"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104964","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9f3317807d89bda3","title":"Overlapping ownership and input prices","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of overlapping ownership in a setting where firms must contract with an input supplier before competing in the product market. Horizontal ownership among the competing firms can here affect the input prices set by the supplier. I derive precise conditions for when overlapping ownership raises, reduces, or has no effect on input prices. The key factor is how demand curvature varies with total output. When overlapping ownership reduces input prices, the cost reduction is in turn passed on to consumers. This indirect effect offsets – and can even outweigh – the direct negative effect of overlapping ownership on product market competition.","wordCount":106,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Teis Lunde Lømo"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103067","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9f377a1c63b51064","title":"Presidential Address: Sustainable Finance and ESG Issues—<i>Value</i>versus<i>Values</i>","abstract":"In this address, I discuss differences across investor and manager motivations for considering sustainable finance— value versus values motivations—and how these differences contribute to misunderstandings about environmental, social, and governance investment approaches. The finance research community has the ability and responsibility to help clear up these misunderstandings through additional research, which I suggest.","wordCount":53,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Laura T. Starks"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13255","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9f463a892b725a12","title":"When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct","abstract":"We examine gender differences in misconduct punishment in the financial advisory industry. There is a “gender punishment gap”: following an incident of misconduct, female advisers are 20% more likely to lose their jobs and 30% less likely to find new jobs, relative to male advisers. The gender punishment gap is not driven by gender differences in occupation, productivity, nature of misconduct, or recidivism. The gap in hiring and firing dissipates at firms with a greater percentage of female managers and executives. We also explore the differential treatment of ethnic minority men and find similar patterns of “in-group” tolerance.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Mark Egan","Gregor Matvos","Amit Seru"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718964","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f47b176fc19b5a7","title":"Rational vs. Long-run forecasters: Optimal monetary policy and the role of inequality","abstract":"This paper builds a stylized simple sticky-price New Keynesian model where agents' beliefs are not homogeneous. We assume that agents choose optimal plans while considering forecasts of macroeconomic conditions over an infinite horizon. A fraction of them (boundedly rational agents) use heuristics to forecast macroeconomic variables over an infinite horizon. In our framework, we study optimal policies consistent with a second-order approximation of the policy objective from the consumers' utility function, assuming that the steady state is not distorted.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Elton Beqiraj","Giovanni Di Bartolomeo","Carolina Serpieri"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000396","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f4be2c35a554d63","title":"A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation","abstract":"This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from − 1.5 percent to − 2 percent, implying an elevated risk of ZLB episodes for the foreseeable future. We decompose the contribution of demographic and technological factors to the decline in interest rates since 1970 and quantify changes required to restore higher rates.","wordCount":107,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Gauti B. Eggertsson","Neil Mehrotra","Jacob A. Robbins"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170367","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f52151fe4a734a8","title":"Revisiting cost vector effects in discrete choice experiments","abstract":"The estimation of marginal utility of income in discrete choice experiments is of crucial importance for the estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) and welfare estimates. Despite this central importance, there are only few investigations into the impact of the design of the cost attribute vector on choices and WTP estimates. We present a conceptual framework that describes why cost vector effects might occur in choice experiments, and investigate cost vector effects empirically drawing on data from a choice experiment in the context of peatland restoration in Scotland. This study employs a split sample approach with three different cost vectors that vary considerably in the cost levels offered to respondents, and investigates differences between treatments with respect to marginal WTP estimates, status quo choice, use of systematic decision strategies and attribute non-attendance. A key finding is that the choice of cost vectors can affect the incidence of decision strategies. After accounting for the differential use of a decision strategy that might not be consistent with random utility modelling, cost vectors that are higher in magnitude result in higher WTP, in line with an anchoring hypothesis. We find weak support that marginal WTP of lower income respondents is affected differently compared to higher income respondents through the use of different cost vectors. Differences in welfare estimates resulting from the use of different cost vectors might change outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. We therefore recommend that researchers include tests of sensitivity of welfare estimates to different cost vectors in their study design.","wordCount":249,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Klaus Glenk","Jürgen Meyerhoff","Faiçal Akaichi","Julia Martín-Ortega"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2019.05.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9f588694fd8303a6","title":"Information Design","abstract":"A designer commits to a signal distribution that is informative about a payoff-relevant state. Conditional upon the privately observed signals, agents take actions that affect their payoffs as well as those of the designer. We show how to derive the (designer) optimal information structure in static finite environments. We fully characterize it in a symmetric binary setting for a parameterized game. In this environment, conditionally independent private signals are never strictly optimal.","wordCount":72,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Ina Taneva"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170351","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f71083ba748411e","title":"Personality differences and investment decision-making","abstract":"We survey thousands of affluent American investors to examine the relationship between personalities and investment decisions. The Big Five personality traits correlate with investors' beliefs about the stock market and economy, risk preferences, and social interaction tendencies. Two personality traits, Neuroticism and Openness, stand out in their explanatory power for equity investments. Investors with high Neuroticism and those with low Openness tend to allocate less investment to equities. We examine the underlying mechanisms and find evidence for both standard channels of preferences and beliefs and other nonstandard channels. We show consistent out-of-sample evidence in representative panels of Australian and German households.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Zhengyang Jiang","Cameron Peng","Hongjun Yan"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103776","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9f934ca6cf76b87c","title":"Ambiguity Aversion Decreases the Impact of Partial Insurance: Evidence from African Farmers","abstract":"Indemnifying smallholder farmers against crop loss is thought to play an important role in encouraging the adoption of new technologies and facilitating productivity growth, but to be infeasible due to information problems. Consequently there is interest in developing alternative, partial, insurance products. Examples include rainfall insurance and the limited liability inherent in credit contracts. I argue that although these products may reduce information asymmetry, ambiguity averse farmers struggle to assess whether the contracts reduce risk. This problem is most pronounced when the production technology is ambiguous, as is likely the case for new technologies. I formalize this argument and test the theory using data from two RCTs, conducted in Malawi and Kenya. Comparative statics from the theory are consistent with both sets of data, and I argue that income losses from ambiguity aversion may be substantial.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Gharad Bryan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy056","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f948c619f7af949","title":"The effect of oil prices on stock prices: fresh evidence from asymmetric causality tests","abstract":"This article investigates the causal impact of oil prices on stock prices in each G7 market as well as in the world market. An asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-J is used for this purpose. Since the underlying data appears to be non-normal with time-varying volatility, we use bootstrap simulations with leverage adjustments in order to produce more reliable critical values than the asymptotic ones. Based on symmetric causality tests, we find no causal effect of oil prices on the stock prices of the world market or any of the G7 countries. However, when we apply an asymmetric causality test, we find that increasing oil prices cause stock prices to rise in the world, the U.S. and Japan while decreasing oil prices cause stock prices to fall in Germany. This may imply that the world, the U.S. and Japanese stock markets consider increases in oil prices as an indicator of good news as this may mean that there is an increase in oil demand due to an expected growth in the economy while the German stock market treats decreasing oil prices as a signal of an expected contraction in the economy.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Abdulnasser Hatemi‐J","Abdulrahman Al Shayeb","Eduardo Roca"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1221045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9f9ad877135bb7dd","title":"Changes in Between-Group Inequality: Computers, Occupations, and International Trade","abstract":"We provide a unifying framework to quantify the impact of several determinants of changes in US between-group inequality. We use an assignment framework with many labor groups, equipment types, and occupations in which changes in inequality are driven by changes in workforce composition, occupation demand, computerization, and labor productivity. We parameterize the model using direct measures of computer usage within labor group-occupation pairs and quantify the impact of each shock for various dimensions of between-group inequality between 1984 and 2003. We find, for example, that computerization and shifts in occupation demand jointly account for roughly 80 percent of the rise in the skill premium, with computerization alone accounting for roughly 60 percent. In an open-economy extension of the model, we show how computerization and changes in occupation demand can be caused by changes in the extent of international trade and perform counterfactual exercises to quantify these effects.","wordCount":147,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Ariel Burstein","Eduardo Morales","Jonathan Vogel"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170291","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9fa01fd522bd36a4","title":"Revisiting the diagnosis of intertemporal preference reversals","abstract":"Intertemporal preference reversals occur when individuals choose future option A over future option B in a direct choice between the two but place a higher ‘immediate cash’ value on B than on A. Tversky et al. (1990) reported strong evidence of such reversals, which they attributed mainly to valuation biases rather than intransitivity. We find similar levels of reversals, even after adjusting for considerable degrees of variability and imprecision in people’s responses. However, we disagree with Tversky et al.’s conclusions about the causes of the majority of these reversals. We find substantial levels of intransitivity in respondents’ binary choices as well as differential overvaluation of both options relative to the values inferred from their choices.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Zhihua Li","Graham Loomes"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09369-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9fa6d238ed50f5c2","title":"Queueing games with an endogenous number of machines","abstract":"We study queueing problems with an endogenous number of machines, the novelty being that coalitions not only choose how to queue, but on how many machines. After minimizing the processing costs and machine costs, we share the proceeds of this cooperation, and study the existence of stable allocations. First, we study queueing problems, and examine how to share the total cost. We provide an upper bound and a lower bound on the cost of a machine to guarantee the non-emptiness of the core. Next, we study requeueing problems, where there is an existing queue. We examine how to share the cost savings compared to the initial situation, when optimally requeueing/changing the number of machines. Although stable allocations may not exist, we guarantee their existence when all machines are considered public goods, and we start with an initial queue in which agents with larger waiting costs are processed first.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ata Atay","Christian Trudeau"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.01.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9fa7b9fae61e45ad","title":"Decentralized Mining in Centralized Pools","abstract":"The rise of centralized mining pools for risk sharing does not necessarily undermine the decentralization required for blockchains: because of miners’ cross-pool diversification and pool managers’ endogenous fee setting, larger pools better internalize their externality on global hash rates, charge higher fees, attract disproportionately fewer miners, and grow more slowly. Instead, mining pools as a financial innovation escalate miners’ arms race and significantly increase the energy consumption of proof-of-work-based blockchains. Empirical evidence from Bitcoin mining supports our model’s predictions. The economic insights inform other consensus protocols and the industrial organization of mainstream sectors with similar characteristics but ambiguous prior findings.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Lin William Cong","Zhiguo He","Jiasun Li"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa040","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-9fabc667ce1814f5","title":"Robots and the rise of European superstar firms","abstract":"We study how a recent digital automation technology—industrial robots—is associated with the distribution of sales, productivity, markups, and profits within industries. Our empirical analysis combines data on the industry-level stock of industrial robots with firms' balance sheet data for six European countries from 2004 to 2013. We find that industries with high robot exposure are characterized by dis-proportional increases in productivity in those firms that are already most productive to begin with. Those firms are able to increase their markups and overall profits, while less profitable firms within the same industry, country and year tend to see declining markups and profits. We also find that variation in robot exposure across industries is correlated with declining labor income shares, mainly through adjustments within firms that are initially large, productive and have low labor cost-to -sales ratios. In sum, our paper suggests that European manufacturing industries with higher robot adoption rates experience a stronger emergence of superstar firms and more pronounced shifts of the functional income distribution away from wages and towards profits.","wordCount":171,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Joel Stiebale","Jens Suedekum","Nicole Woessner"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103085","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-9fb28f5175cd0922","title":"The effects of fiscal policy at the effective lower bound","abstract":"We estimate the effects of government spending shocks during prolonged episodes of low interest rates, which we consider as proxy for the effective lower bound (ELB). Using a panel VAR model for 17 advanced countries, we find that both the government consumption and investment multipliers are significantly higher, and exceed unity, when interest rates are persistently low. Distinguishing between construction- and equipment-related government investments, we find that only the former raises output by significantly more when the ELB binds. This result can be explained by existing New Keynesian models featuring time-to-build constraints on government investment.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Dennis Bonam","Jakob de Haan","Beau Soederhuizen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000097","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9fc29de9bba67da5","title":"The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty","abstract":"Open-economy DSGE Model with heterogeneous firms and nominal rigidities analyzes news and uncertainty about future tariffs. This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms’ earnings calls, and tariff rates. Firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data reveal that increases in TPU reduce business investment. The empirical results are interpreted through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms’ export participation decisions. News and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Dario Caldara","Matteo Iacoviello","Patrick Molligo","Andrea Prestipino","Andrea Raffo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.11.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9fc31f49195464ef","title":"The emergence of city food networks: Rescaling the impact of urban food policies","abstract":"Hundreds of cities across the globe are mobilising the convening power of food to deliver food security and sustainability outcomes supported by an increasing number of national and international city food networks devoted to scale-up and out this urban food revolution. This paper presents the first comparative analysis of this increasingly networked urban foodscape based on data from 13 national and international initiatives which together represent more than 500 cities across the globe. By applying a translocal governance framework, the paper explores the different aims, structures and mechanisms activated by this complex landscape of networks and how these intrinsic characteristics endow them with diverse strengths and limitations. To examine further the role of networks in rescaling the impact urban food policies, I analyse the metagovernance of these initiatives exploring discourses around coordination of these networks and identifying potential convergence points. Results from this study are translated into policy recommendations aimed at unfolding further the transformative capacity of translocal networks and elevate their role in unfolding a more integrated and equitable new urban food agenda; mainly by proposing to reinforce the cross-scalar alignment of food policies, making the case to invest in connective infrastructure such as network and backbone organisations, work with a wider diversity of agents, and provide open spaces that democratise access to collective knowledge and capacities. c. As urban food policies become the new norm, this research stresses the need for rescaling food system interventions that effectively deliver social and spatial justice in an increasingly polarised word.","wordCount":249,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Ana Moragues‐Faus"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102107","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-9fda4af5bd203978","title":"Confounding dynamics","abstract":"In the context of a dynamic model with incomplete information, we isolate a novel mechanism of shock propagation. We term the mechanism confounding dynamics because it arises from agents' optimal signal extraction efforts on variables whose dynamics—as opposed to super-imposed noise—prevents full revelation of information. Employing methods in the space of analytic functions, we are able to obtain analytical characterizations of the equilibria that generalize the celebrated Hansen-Sargent optimal prediction formula. Our main theorem establishes conditions under which confounding dynamics emerge in equilibrium in general settings. We apply our results to a canonical one-sector real business cycle model with dispersed information. In that setting, confounding dynamics is shown to amplify the propagation of a productivity shock, producing hump-shaped impulse response functions.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Giacomo Rondina","Todd B. Walker"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105251","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9fea19f4313a42bc","title":"Efficient public good provision between and within groups","abstract":"We generalize the model of Gallice and Monzón (2019) to incorporate a public goods game with groups, position uncertainty, and observational learning. Contributions are simultaneous within groups, but groups play sequentially based on their observation of an incomplete sample of past contributions. We show that full cooperation between and within groups is possible with self-interested players on a fixed horizon. Position uncertainty implies the existence of an equilibrium where groups of players conditionally cooperate in the hope of influencing further groups. Conditional cooperation implies that each group member is pivotal, so that efficient simultaneous provision within groups is an equilibrium.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Chowdhury Mohammad Sakib Anwar","Jorge Bruno","Renaud Foucart","Sonali Sen Gupta"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.12.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9ff215b90ded19bd","title":"Concordance of health states in couples: Analysis of self-reported, nurse administered and blood-based biomarker data in the UK Understanding Society panel","abstract":"We use self-reported health measures, nurse-administered measurements and blood-based biomarkers to examine the concordance between health states of partners in marital/cohabiting relationships in the UK. A model of cumulative health exposures is used to interpret the empirical pattern of between-partner health correlation in relation to elapsed relationship duration, allowing us to distinguish non-causal correlation due to assortative mating from potentially causal effects of shared lifestyle and environmental factors. We find important differences between the results for different health indicators, with strongest homogamy correlations observed for adiposity, followed by blood pressure, heart rate, inflammatory markers and cholesterol, and also self-assessed general health and functional difficulties. We find no evidence of a \"dose-response relationship\" for marriage duration, and show that this suggests - perhaps counterintuitively - that shared lifestyle factors and homogamous partner selection make roughly equal contributions to the concordance we observe in most of the health measures we examine.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Apostolos Davillas","Stephen Pudney"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-9ff909a976441b93","title":"Husband and Wife Perspectives on Farm Household Decision-making Authority and Evidence on Intra-household Accord in Rural Tanzania","abstract":"We use OLS and logistic regression to investigate variation in husband and wife perspectives on the division of authority over agriculture-related decisions within households in rural Tanzania. Using original data from husbands and wives (interviewed separately) in 1,851 Tanzanian households, the analysis examines differences in the wife's authority over 13 household and farming decisions. The study finds that the level of decision-making authority allocated to wives by their husbands, and the authority allocated by wives to themselves, both vary significantly across households. In addition to commonly considered assets such as women's age and education, in rural agricultural households women's health and labor activities also appear to matter for perceptions of authority. We also find husbands and wives interviewed separately frequently disagree with each other over who holds authority over key farming, family, and livelihood decisions. Further, the results of OLS and logistic regression suggest that even after controlling for various individual, household, and regional characteristics, husband and wife claims to decision-making authority continue to vary systematically by decision-suggesting that decision characteristics themselves also matter. The absence of spousal agreement over the allocation of authority (i.e., a lack of \"intra-household accord\") over different farm and household decisions is problematic for interventions seeking to use survey data to develop and inform strategies for reducing gender inequalities or empowering women in rural agricultural households. Findings provide policy and program insights into when studies interviewing only a single spouse or considering only a single decision may inaccurately characterize intra-household decision-making dynamics.","wordCount":247,"journal":"World Development","authors":["C. Leigh Anderson","Travis Reynolds","Mary Kay Gugerty"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.09.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a0071eca02e82465","title":"Learning to change: Transformative knowledge for building a sustainable bioeconomy","abstract":"The transition towards a bioeconomy is considered a powerful approach to combating current trends of unsustainability. To date, the concept has been widely perceived as a predominantly technical endeavor. This is, however, not sufficient and will not really tackle the global sustainability challenges. Therefore, the imparting of technological knowledge must be accompanied by instruction in other types of knowledge, particularly transformative knowledge. The authors explore the various elements of transformative knowledge necessary to equip the protagonists of a bioeconomy transformation. On this basis, four academic bioeconomy programs across Europe are analyzed using a hybrid methodological approach, combining a keyword-based content analysis of the module descriptions with semi-structured interviews of key representatives of the programs. It is shown that the syllabi of all four programs include important elements of transformative knowledge, such as communication, participation, and decision making skills. Skills related to the ability to revise and reflect personal values, in contrast, are mainly only an implicit part of the program. The study applies insights into education for sustainable development to the requirements of a fundamental transformation towards a sustainable bioeconomy. It offers a first appraisal of the consideration transformative knowledge is given in the design of European academic bioeconomy curricula.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Sophie Urmetzer","Jan Lask","Ricardo Vargas‐Carpintero","Andreas Pyka"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106435","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a00a1cd37b4517fb","title":"Bayesian estimation of a small-scale new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations","abstract":"This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations (HE). Agents form expectations via Euler equation adaptive learning (AL) and differ by the model they use to forecast. Type A agents use a correctly specified model, while type B and type C agents use misspecified models. Quarterly US data from the pre-Great Moderation and Great Moderation periods are used to jointly estimate the degree of agent heterogeneity, the AL parameters, and the deep model parameters. Results show that the data exhibit significant expectational heterogeneity, and that the HE model fits the data better than a model with homogeneous agent AL.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Christopher Elias"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000401","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a01c456c536299dd","title":"Liquidity Traps and Jobless Recoveries","abstract":"This paper proposes a model that explains the joint occurrence of liquidity traps and jobless growth recoveries. Its key elements are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor-type interest rate feedback rule, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, and a confidence shock. Absent a change in policy, the model predicts that low inflation and high unemployment become chronic. With capital accumulation, the model predicts, in addition, an investment slump. The paper identifies a New Fisherian effect, whereby raising the nominal interest rate to its intended target for an extended period of time can boost inflationary expectations and thereby foster employment.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé","Martı́n Uribe"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150220","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a029f565c4e46634","title":"Index providers: Whales behind the scenes of ETFs","abstract":"Most ETFs replicate indexes licensed by index providers. We show that index providers wield strong market power and charge large markups to ETFs that are passed on to investors. We document three stylized facts: (i) the index provider market is highly concentrated; (ii) investors care about the identities of index providers, although they explain little variation in ETF returns; and (iii) over one-third of ETF expense ratios are paid as licensing fees to index providers. A structural decomposition attributes 60% of licensing fees to index providers’ markups. Counterfactual analyses show that improving competition among index providers reduces ETF expense ratios by up to 30%.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Yu An","Matteo Benetton","Yang Song"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.06.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a035746669657cc8","title":"Effects of trade liberalization on growth and welfare through basic and applied researches","abstract":"This paper constructs a trade and growth model with firm heterogeneity, and basic and applied (technological) researches. It considers R&D activities of basic science conducted by the government using asset income tax and applied technology conducted by profit-maximizing firms to re-analyze the effect of trade liberalization on growth and welfare. It shows that trade liberalization elevates the growth rate, if the population size is small in an exogenous international spillover and endogenous growth model with firm heterogeneity. Moreover, it shows that the same condition is sufficient for welfare gain through further exposure to trade.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Katsufumi Fukuda"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.08.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a039162147a88b61","title":"Patience and time consistency in collective decisions","abstract":"We present experimental evidence regarding individual and group decisions over time. Static and longitudinal methods are combined to test four conditions on time preferences: impatience, stationarity, age independence, and dynamic consistency. Decision making in groups should favor coordination via communication about voting intentions. We find that individuals are neither patient nor consistent, that groups are both patient and highly consistent, and that information exchange between participants helps groups converge to stable decisions. Finally we provide additional evidence showing that our results are driven by the specific role of groups and not by either repeated choices or individual preferences when choosing for other subjects.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Laurent Denant-Boèmont","Enrico Diecidue","Olivier L’Haridon"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9481-4","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a03b93345ec447c6","title":"Platform competition with free entry of sellers","abstract":"We study platforms setting access prices and commissions on revenues of sellers engaged in monopolistic competition with free entry, such as the app providers on the app stores of Apple and Android devices. The link between prices on different sides induces the platforms to redistribute all the commission revenues through lower access prices and to set the optimal commission rates from the point of view of consumers, taking into account the pass-through on the prices of sellers, the elasticities of demand and surplus for their services and the elasticity of entry with respect to profitability. We discuss the role of heterogeneous sellers, substitutability between sellers’s products and limitations of the basic alignment of interest due to direct channels for sellers and consumer myopia.","wordCount":123,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Federico Etro"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102903","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a057cda34b7b1f5c","title":"Teacher Peer Observation and Student Test Scores: Evidence from a Field Experiment in English Secondary Schools","abstract":"This paper reports on a field experiment in 82 high schools trialing a low-cost intervention in schools’ operations: teachers working in the same school observed and scored each other’s teaching. Students in treatment schools scored 0.07 student standard deviations higher on math and English exams. Teachers were further randomly assigned to roles—observer and observee—and students of both types benefited, observers’ students perhaps more so. Doubling the number of observations produced no difference in student outcomes. Treatment effects were larger for otherwise low-performing teachers.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Simon Burgess","Shenila Rawal","Eric S. Taylor"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712997","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a060727b2ec01b0e","title":"Exchange Rate Reconnect","abstract":"It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007–2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk measures and with exchange rates. Our results support the narrative that the U.S. dollar's role as an international and safe-haven currency has surged since the global financial crisis.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Andrew Lilley","Matteo Maggiori","Brent Neiman","Jesse Schreger"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00978","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a07ec2f013947b2d","title":"A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions","abstract":"We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Sebastián Fanelli","Ludwig Straub"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a086d4bfcb461797","title":"What about the race between education and technology in the Global South? Comparing skill premiums in colonial Africa and Asia","abstract":"Historical research on the race between education and technology has focused on the West but barely touched upon ‘the rest’. A new occupational wage database for 50 African and Asian economies allows us to compare long‐run patterns in skill premiums across the colonial and post‐colonial eras ( c . 1870–2010). Our data reveal three major patterns. First, skilled labour was considerably more expensive in colonial Africa and Asia than in pre‐industrial Europe. Second, skill premiums were distinctly higher in Africa than in Asia. Third, in both regions, skill premiums fell dramatically over the course of the twentieth century, ultimately converging to levels long observed in the West. Our paper takes a first step to explain both the origins of the Africa–Asia gap and the drivers of global skill premium convergence, paying special attention to the colonial context that shaped demand, supply, and labour market institutions.","wordCount":145,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Ewout Frankema","Marlous van Waijenburg"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13221","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a08f0d03d6db6b86","title":"The role of entrepreneurial passion in the formation of students’ entrepreneurial intentions","abstract":"Entrepreneurial passion has been suggested as an entrepreneur’s central characteristic, theorized to affect a host of entrepreneurial behaviours. Considering the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), a conceptual model was developed and tested which integrated both cognitive (namely, subjective norms, attitudes toward perceived behavioural control and entrepreneurship) and emotional (namely, entrepreneurial passion) factors to determine their contributions to entrepreneurial intentions. This is a quantitative study using a self-report survey for data collection. The hypotheses were examined with 250 university students sample applying the partial least squares method. The results indicate a significant indirect relationship between entrepreneurial passion and entrepreneurial intentions via their cognitive antecedents (attitudes toward entrepreneurship and perceived behavioural control). The study contributes to the emerging research of entrepreneurial passion in the entrepreneurship field and heightens its role as a factor that should be taken into account to improve entrepreneurship education programs.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Saeid Karimi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1645287","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a095cb83552115a7","title":"Refugees' and irregular migrants’ self-selection into Europe","abstract":"We provide the first large-scale evidence on self-selection of refugees and irregular migrants who arrived in Europe in 2015 or 2016. Our analysis uses unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls. We find that refugees are positively self-selected with respect to human capital, as are female irregular migrants. Male irregular migrants are negatively self-selected. These patterns hold whether analyzing individually stated main reason to emigrate, country-level conflict intensity, or sub-regional conflict intensity. Several additional analyses show that our results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias or liquidity constraints. We offer a theoretical framework to explain these patterns, by extending the Roy-Borjas model to include risks related to staying in an unsafe country of origin, risks related to migration, and gender-specific returns to human capital.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Cevat Giray Aksoy","Panu Poutvaara"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102681","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a0a1d7f4e82a0f1f","title":"Self-serving bias in redistribution choices: Accounting for beliefs and norms","abstract":"We explore the psychological mechanisms underlying self-serving redistribution decisions in an experimental setting. This self-serving bias in redistribution has been attributed not only to self-interest, but also to constructs such as differing beliefs about the hard work or luck underlying inequality, differing fairness views, and differing perceptions of social norms. In this study, we directly measure each of these potential mechanisms and compare their mediating roles in the relationship between status and redistribution. In our experiment, participants complete real-effort tasks and then are randomly assigned a high or low pay rate per correct answer to exogenously induce (dis)advantaged status. Participants are then paired and those assigned the role of dictator decide how to divide their joint earnings. We find that advantaged dictators keep more for themselves than disadvantaged dictators and report different fairness views and beliefs about task performance, but not different perceptions of social norms. Further, only fairness views play a significant mediating role between status and allocation differences, suggesting this is the primary mechanism underlying self-serving differences in support for redistribution.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Dianna Amasino","Davide Pace","Joël J. van der Weele"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102654","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a0b5abb34a8e1463","title":"Universal Child Care, Maternal Employment, and Children’s Long-Run Outcomes: Evidence from the US Lanham Act of 1940","abstract":"This paper analyzes the US Lanham Act of 1940, a heavily subsidized and universal child care program administered during World War II. I first estimate its impact on maternal employment using a triple-differences model. I find that employment increased substantially following the introduction of the program. I then study children’s long-run labor market outcomes. Using Census data from 1970 to 1990, I assess well-being in a life-cycle framework by tracking cohorts of treated individuals throughout their prime working years. Results from difference-in-differences models suggest the program had persistent positive effects, with the largest benefits accruing to the most economically disadvantaged adults.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Chris M. Herbst"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689478","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a0bd305ca2a5ec72","title":"Does agricultural trade reduce pressure on land ecosystems? Decomposing drivers of the embodied human appropriation of net primary production","abstract":"Agriculture contributes to deforestation and the conversion of other terrestrial ecosystems, affecting important ecosystem functions. A growing share of the produced agricultural commodities is traded between countries. It is widely assumed that international trade reduces humanity's pressure on land ecosystems by optimizing the mix of origin, i.e. by sourcing products from countries where land is used more efficiently. We examined if recent changes in the origin of agricultural products reduced humanity's impact on a fundamental ecosystem function, the net primary production (NPP) of vegetation. We performed an index decomposition analysis on a dataset of human appropriation of net primary production embodied in bilateral trade flows of 392 agricultural products between 167 countries (eHANPP) from 1986 to 2011. We found that while changes in the origin of agricultural products globally reduced HANPP in the 1990s, this trend reversed since 1999. This turn is explained by the increased sourcing of agricultural products from tropical regions, for exports and domestic consumption. After 2008, countries – on average – increasingly sourced their agricultural products from less efficient regions than in 1986. Our results suggest that the potential of trade to reduce humanity's impact on land ecosystems has not been exploited in the recent past.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Nicolas Le Roux","Thomas Kästner","Karl‐Heinz Erb","Helmut Haberl"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106915","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a0cd677a84339392","title":"The Impact of Tropical Storms on Households: Evidence from Panel Data on Consumption","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of tropical storms on Jamaican household consumption. We build a panel data set that follows individual households over time thus enabling us to take account of time invariant household and location unobservables that could be correlated with mean tropical storm exposure. Our results show that while the average damaging hurricane reduces per capita consumption by approximately 1.1%, more destructive events can cause losses multiple times this amount. There are, however, heterogeneous impacts across households, where only those that live in buildings with less wind resistant walls are affected. Additionally, we find that households are able to partially buffer the negative impact on consumption through remittances and savings, as well as by shifting funds away from non‐regular expenditures. Again, households differ in the nature of this buffering according to the wind resistance of their buildings.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Michael Henry","Nekeisha Spencer","Eric Strobl"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12328","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a0cf422d8e6141fa","title":"Protecting against disaster risks: Why insurance and prevention may be complements","abstract":"We examine mechanisms as to why insurance and individual risk reduction activities are complements instead of substitutes. We use data on flood risk reduction activities and flood insurance purchases by surveying more than 1000 homeowners in New York City after they experienced Hurricane Sandy. Insurance is a complement to loss reduction measures undertaken well before the threat of suffering a loss, which is the opposite of a moral hazard effect of insurance coverage. In contrast, insurance acts as a substitute for emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when a loss is imminent, which implies that financial incentives or regulations are needed to encourage insured people to take these measures. We find that mechanisms leading to preferred risk selection are related to past flood damage and a crowding out effect of federal disaster assistance as well as behavioral motivations to reduce risk.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["W. J. Wouter Botzen","Howard Kunreuther","Erwann Michel‐Kerjan"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09312-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a0e694d65f3b449a","title":"Government policies in a granular global economy","abstract":"Using a granular model of international trade, we study the rationale and implications of various government interventions targeted at large individual firms. In antitrust regulation, governments face an incentive to be overly lenient towards domestic mergers in comparative advantage sectors. In trade policy, targeting individual foreign exporters rather than entire sectors minimizes the pass-through of import tariffs into domestic consumer prices, shifting the burden towards foreign producers. In industrial policy, subsidizing ‘national champions’ is generally suboptimal in closed economies as it leads to an excessive build-up of market power, yet it may become unilaterally welfare improving in open economies at the cost of the foreign consumers.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Cécile Gaubert","Oleg Itskhoki","Maximilian Vogler"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.04.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a0ed49f4279309e1","title":"Expected returns and risk in the stock market","abstract":"We explain time-varying expected returns by time-variation in the covariance of the market return with the pricing kernel. Simple specifications in which the kernel is spanned by a small number of factors reveal substantial levels of predictability with 1-year R2 of 17–18%. The pricing kernel identified by the model is essentially orthogonal to news about expected returns, suggesting that the predictability of market returns is due to the time-varying risk of cash-flow news.","wordCount":73,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Michael J. Brennan","Alex P. Taylor"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a0f75986321f9eb9","title":"Spreading the word! Effects of a randomized normative informational campaign on residential water conservation","abstract":"This paper reports the direct and spillover effects of a norm-based informational campaign on residential water usage. I follow a two-stage randomized saturation design to produce and measure interference within utilities. A percentage of households within utilities is targeted to receive periodic reports comparing their usage to neighbors' average, while the rest are left untreated to measure spillover effects. I find targeted and spillover households reduced their water usage compared to the control group, with average reductions of 8.2 % and 5.6 %, respectively. I also find that the campaign’s effects depend on the number of targeted households within a utility, the feedback frequency, baseline water usage, and the proximity to other directly treated households. The findings shed light on the efficacy of leveraging social influence and norms to foster environmentally responsible behaviors.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Jose D. Lopez-Rivas"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101463","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a11c1b6654306c23","title":"Sustainability or performance? Ratings and fund managers’ incentives","abstract":"We explore how mutual fund managers and investors react when the tradeoff between a fund's sustainability and performance becomes salient. Following the introduction of Morningstar's sustainability ratings (the “globe” ratings), mutual funds increased their holdings of sustainable stocks to attract flows. Such sustainability-driven trades, however, underperformed, impairing the funds’ overall performance. Consequently, a tradeoff between sustainability and performance emerged. In the new equilibrium, the globe ratings do not affect investor flows and funds no longer trade to improve their globe ratings.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Nickolay Gantchev","Mariassunta Giannetti","Rachel Li"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103831","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a1256d4e5d17a4f5","title":"Do State Laws Protecting Older Workers from Discrimination Reduce Age Discrimination in Hiring? Evidence from a Field Experiment","abstract":"We conduct a resume field experiment in all U.S. states to study how state laws protecting older workers from age discrimination affect age discrimination in hiring for retail sales jobs. We relate the difference in callback rates between old and young applicants to state variation in age and disability discrimination laws. These laws could boost hiring of older applicants, although they could have the unintended consequence of deterring hiring if they increase termination costs. In our preferred estimates that are weighted to be representative of the workforce, we find evidence that there is less discrimination against older men and women in states where age discrimination law allows larger damages, and more limited evidence that there is lower discrimination against older women in states where disability discrimination law allows larger damages. Our clearest result is that these laws do not have the unintended consequence of lowering callbacks for older workers.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["David Neumark","Ian Burn","Patrick Button","Nanneh Chehras"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/704008","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a12c04e0a4d49341","title":"Revisiting the process of aggregate growth recovery after a capital destruction","abstract":"We study the implications of a growth model including social capital and habit formation concerning the recovery of economies that suffer from an exogenous destruction in their capital stock. Habits exhibit very low persistence and depend only on last period’s consumption as suggested by empirical evidence. In addition to physical capital, agents invest in social capital which generates both market (production) and non-market (utility) returns. We study an infinite horizon model and compare its implications to a model with habit formation but without social capital. Our framework is more efficient in generating dynamic patterns that replicate the behavior of the main economic variables during the reconstruction period. High investment in social capital at the beginning of the transition is a key element of our results.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Jaime Alonso‐Carrera","Stéphane Bouché","Carlos de Miguel"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103293","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a13161ef78263669","title":"The importance of being earliest: birth order and educational outcomes along the socioeconomic ladder in Mexico","abstract":"We study the effect of birth order on educational outcomes in Mexico using 2 million observations from the 2010 Census. We find that the effect of birth order is negative, and a variety of endogeneity and robustness checks suggest a causal interpretation of this finding. We then examine whether these effects vary across households’ economic status, and we find significant heterogeneity across absolute as well as relative standards of living, operationalized as household wealth and relative deprivation. Finally, we find that firstborns’ advantage is amplified when they are male, and in particular when other siblings are female.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Lucio Esposito","Sunil Mitra Kumar","Adrián Villaseñor"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00764-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a14a2ea3f4a954d5","title":"The development of risk aversion and prudence in Chinese children and adolescents","abstract":"This study experimentally evaluates the risk preferences of children and adolescents living in an urban Chinese environment. We use a simple binary choice task that tests risk aversion, as well as prudence. This is the first test for prudence in children and adolescents. Our results reveal that subjects from grades 5 to 11 (10 to 17 years) make mostly risk-averse and prudent choices. The choices of 3rd graders (8 to 9 years) do not differ statistically from risk neutral benchmarks, but at the same time they make mostly prudent choices. We also find evidence for a transmission of risk preferences. There is positive correlation between all children’s and their parents’ tendency to make risk-averse choices. There is also positive correlation between girls’ and their parents’ tendency to make prudent choices.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Timo Heinrich","Jason Shachat"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09340-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a16541873d148dc0","title":"French and British Colonial Legacies in Education: Evidence from the Partition of Cameroon","abstract":"Cameroon was partitioned between France and the United Kingdom after WWI and then reunited after independence. I use this natural experiment to investigate colonial legacies in education, using a border discontinuity analysis of historical census microdata from 1976. I find that men born in the decades following partition had, all else equal, one more year of schooling if they were born in the British part. This positive British effect disappeared after 1950, as the French increased education expenditure, and because of favoritism in school supply towards the Francophone side after reunification. Using 2005 census microdata, I find that the British advantage resurfaced more recently: Cameroonians born after 1970 are more likely to finish high school, attend a university, and have a high-skilled occupation if they were born in the former British part. I explain this result by the legacy of high grade repetition rates in the French-speaking education system and their detrimental effect on dropout.","wordCount":155,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Yannick Dupraz"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000299","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a16ccf991575632e","title":"The SDGs in middle-income countries: Setting or serving domestic development agendas? Evidence from Ecuador","abstract":"The expansion of middle-income countries in the global South is now widely acknowledged as significant for international development research and practice. But, as yet, scholars have not fully considered how middle-income countries are responding to the new global goals on international development (the Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs) outlined in Agenda 2030. Equally, insufficient attention has been paid to how – if at all – the SDGs shape domestic development policies and practices in middle income countries. We ask these questions in Ecuador, a country that recently moved from being a lower middle-income and donor dependent country to a more autonomous higher middle-income country with the capacity to promote its own national domestic development approach, Buen Vivir (in English: living well). Deploying a qualitative case study methodology and drawing primarily on in-depth semi-structured interviews conducted with policy makers working in Ecuador’s national government and in the capital Quito, we show that policy makers’ engagement with the SDGs is selective, with an emphasis on those goals and targets which are considered of domestic importance. Both the national government and Quito’s local government are currently focussing mainly on SDGs 10.2 (breaking inequalities) and 11 (inclusive cities). We demonstrate that, in practice, how policy makers understand implementation of these “priority” goals is not consistent; it depends on political preferences, where policy makers are located in the architecture of decentralised governance and the context-specific challenges they face. Evidence from Ecuador suggests that the SDGs cannot be understood as a single coherent template for development that states will simply adopt. Rather they should be analysed in the context of a rapidly changing architecture of global power, shaped by the context-specific nature of national development challenges and national political structures, including decentralisation.","wordCount":286,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Philipp Horn","Jean Grugel"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.04.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a173d99165e8593c","title":"Do urban redevelopment projects attract jobs? Evidence from the Dutch National Restoration Fund","abstract":"We study the local labor market effects of a place-based policy aimed at the preservation and economic re-use of urban built heritage in the Netherlands. We use establishment-level labor market data and a difference-in-difference approach to identify both direct and spillover effects of these redevelopment projects on local labor markets. Our findings show that these projects tend to follow, and at times reinforce, processes of neighborhood change, targeting areas already experiencing relative labor market decline and shifts in the industry mix. While we do not find that these projects reverse or halt decline through local spillover effects, we do find clear direct effects: the projects attract jobs and firms to the redevelopment sites in numbers that outweigh the ongoing negative labor market trends, pointing to a distinct and positive local economic impact. Our findings show that these projects tend to follow, and at times reinforce, processes of neighborhood change, targeting areas experiencing relative labor market decline and shifts in the industry mix.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Niels Martijn Kuiper","Mark van Duijn","A.J. van der Vlist"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104130","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a1778dc34981d33a","title":"Knowledge Transfer, Transitional Dynamics and Optimal Research & Development Policy in a Dynamic Monopoly Setting","abstract":"This paper focuses on the question of whether or not a reduction of the knowledge barrier is good for welfare. Based on a dynamic monopoly setting with simultaneous investment decisions in process as well as in product Research & Development (R&D), we show that a reduction of the knowledge barrier has ambiguous welfare consequences: due to a lower knowledge barrier, product quality and welfare increase in the short-run. However, this may not necessarily be the case in the long-run. One reason is that a positive long-lasting knowledge barrier shock triggers the monopolist sub-optimally to reduce its product R&D investments today and in the future at the cost of future product quality. This in turn may reduce welfare. Accordingly, to realize the first-best level of product quality, the long-run optimal R&D subsidy rate for product innovations increases with a reduction of the knowledge barrier.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jürgen Antony","Torben Klarl"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09779-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a18a0ce8a4b772dc","title":"Evaluating the impact of price caps - Evidence from the European roam-like-at-home regulation","abstract":"The roam-like-at-home regulation (RLAH) eliminated all mobile roaming surcharges to European consumers traveling within Europe. We measure the causal impact of the regulation on European roaming traffic, using the Rest of the World as a control group. We find large and heterogeneous effects on retail and wholesale traffic volumes and revenues. To evaluate the welfare effects of the regulation, we develop a framework that includes consumer surplus, retail and wholesale profits. The gains in consumer surplus are large, and mainly stem from data services. The consumer gains are proportionately larger in small, open economies and in countries with previously high roaming prices. Finally, total welfare increases considerably, because the consumer surplus gains outweigh profit losses. As such, the removal of market power more than compensates for a distortion from a possible overconsumption at zero surcharges.","wordCount":135,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Giulia Canzian","Gianluca Mazzarella","Louis Ronchail","Frank Verboven","Stefano Verzillo"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103115","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a18bec7045da4c2f","title":"Financial crises and shadow banks: A quantitative analysis","abstract":"Motivated by the build-up of shadow bank leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007–2008, I develop a nonlinear macroeconomic model featuring excessive leverage accumulation and endogenous runs to capture the dynamics and quantify the build-up of instability. Incorporating monetary policy, I demonstrate that the zero lower bound increases the crises frequency and lowers welfare. The model is taken to U.S. data to estimate the run probability around the financial crisis of 2007–2008. The estimated run risk was already considerable in 2005 and kept increasing. Counterfactual simulations evaluate whether monetary interventions boost welfare and could have averted the financial crisis.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Matthias Rottner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.06.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a18f3ae78b5f46ee","title":"The effects of corporate taxes on small firms","abstract":"We study the impact of corporate taxes on firm-level investments and business activity by exploiting a 6 percentage-point reduction in the corporate tax rate in 2012–2014 in Finland. We use detailed administrative data and a difference-in-differences method comparing small corporations (tax rate cuts) to similar partnerships (no change in taxes). We find no significant average investment responses but do observe an average increase in annual sales (1.6%) and variable costs (2%) when comparing years before (2008–2011) and after (2014–2016) the tax rate cuts. These effects are driven by more cash-constrained firms and firms where the main owner actively works in the firm.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Jarkko Harju","Aliisa Koivisto","Tuomas Matikka"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104704","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a19261e58eda9d19","title":"Incorporating spatial complexity and variability into the design of stated choice experiments for biodiversity policy support","abstract":"Understanding the spatial distribution of preferences for both use and non-use values of biodiversity is crucial for designing environmental policies that maximise social value. Yet, integrating spatial factors that influence these preferences into stated preference research remains challenging. This includes designing studies that control for, vary, and accurately represent multiple spatial factors simultaneously—such as spatially heterogeneous characteristics of policy sites and spatial relationships between these sites and respondents. This paper introduces a novel approach designed to enable this. It employs a functionality through which realistic locations for change are selected from a database of all possible policy locations that fit the experimental design situation allocated to each respondent. The real-time generated, respondent tailored choice situations are then presented on individualised maps. This allows the creation of numerous, respondent-specific choice scenarios that exhibit a high degree of variation in spatial factors, both among and within respondents. The approach increases the generalisability of insights into spatial effects on stated preferences, while enhancing the realism and credibility of the choice scenarios. The methodology is implemented at a national level. Analysis of respondents’ choices shows that preferences are spatially driven, but that spatial patterns differ depending on the type of intervention. By focusing on generic terms of quantity and quality across space, we aim to demonstrate that the presented approach can be applied to a wide range of valuation problems where spatial context matters.","wordCount":230,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Tomas Badura","Marije Schaafsma"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101565","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a1a0aadabce75e8b","title":"Invisible Women: Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Family Firms in Nineteenth-Century France","abstract":"The French economy has been criticized for a lack of integration of women in business and for the prevalence of inefficient family firms. A sample drawn from patent and exhibition records is used to examine the role of women in enterprise and invention in France. Middle-class women were extensively engaged in entrepreneurship and innovation, and the empirical analysis indicates that their commercial efforts were significantly enhanced by association with family firms. Such formerly invisible achievements suggest a more productive role for family-based enterprises, as a means of incorporating relatively disadvantaged groups into the market economy as managers and entrepreneurs. “This business model … melds entrepreneurial passion with a long family tradition.” —Wendel Company (1704–2014) 1","wordCount":115,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["B. Zorina Khan"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000449","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a1b36f55d16714fb","title":"Optimal contests with incomplete information and convex effort costs","abstract":"I investigate the design of effort‐maximizing mechanisms when agents have both private information and convex effort costs, and the designer has a fixed prize budget. I first demonstrate that it is always optimal for the designer to utilize a contest with as many participants as possible. Further, I identify a necessary and sufficient condition for the winner‐takes‐all prize structure to be optimal. When this condition fails, the designer may prefer to [grant] prizes of descending sizes. I also provide a characterization of the optimal prize allocation rule for this case. Finally, I illustrate how the optimal prize distribution evolves as the contest size grows.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Mengxi Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4259","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a1d383a9eb2ab405","title":"Christianization without economic development: Evidence from missions in Ghana","abstract":"One of the most powerful cultural transformations of the 20th century has been the dramatic expansion of Christianity outside of Europe. This unique historical process was facilitated by vast Christian missionary efforts. In this paper, we study the economic effects of Christian missions in Ghana. We rely on six distinct identification strategies that exploit exogenous variations in Christian missionary expansion from 1828 to 1932. We find no association between Christian missions, whether Protestant, Catholic, Presbyterian or Methodist, and local economic development, whether during contemporary or colonial times. However, some results suggest that Christian missions might have had a positive effect on human capital formation. There might thus be contexts in which missions promoted human capital accumulation without this necessarily translating into local economic development.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Rémi Jedwab","Felix Meier zu Selhausen","Alexander Moradi"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.07.015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a1dbe787fcb866b0","title":"African‐American and Hispanic Income, Wealth and Homeownership since 1989","abstract":"This paper analyzes trends in the income, net worth, and homeownership of non‐Hispanic African‐Americans and Hispanics relative to non‐Hispanic whites in the United States from 1989 to 2016 and the reasons for those trends using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. The wealth gap between African‐American and white families was much the same in 2007 as in 1989 but it lessened considerably for Hispanics. The net worth of both minorities declined sharply relative to that of non‐Hispanic whites from 2007 to 2016 and that decline was due largely to the lower rate of return on wealth of these two groups during the 2007–2010 period and largely due to the larger dissaving of these two groups during the 2010–2016 period. The paper also finds that the wealth gap is much smaller if net worth is augmented by pension wealth and especially by Social Security wealth.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Edward N. Wolff"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12518","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a1dbf74022354b73","title":"The seen and unseen: the unintended impact of a conditional cash transfer program on prenatal sex selection","abstract":"This study examines the unintended consequences of the Janani Suraksha Yojana, a conditional cash transfer program in India, on prenatal sex-selective behaviour within a son-preference culture. This program unintentionally altered existing trends in prenatal sex selection through its simultaneous provision of cash incentives to households and community health workers as well as access to prenatal sex detection technology such as ultrasound scans. Using difference-in-differences and triple difference estimators we find that the program causes an increase in the likelihood of female births. Furthermore, we observe a rise in under-5 mortality for girls born at higher birth orders, suggesting a shift in discrimination against girls from prenatal to postnatal. Our calculations suggest that the net impact was approximately 300,000 girls surviving in treated states between 2006 and 2015. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that the involvement of community health workers in facilitating the program is a key driver of this trend. Overall, this study sheds light on the complex interplay between policy interventions, cultural norms, and gender disparities in shaping demographic outcomes.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Sayli Javadekar","Kritika Saxena"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-025-01091-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a1ddf265d0a5f959","title":"Second-Degree Price Discrimination by a Two-Sided Monopoly Platform","abstract":"We study second-degree price discrimination by a two-sided monopoly platform. The incentive constraints of the agents on the value creation side may be in conflict with internalizing externalities on the value capture side, which may render pooling optimal. Even without such conflict between the two sides, pooling may be optimal due to type-dependent Spence effects when the preferences of the marginal agents diverge from those of the average agents on the value capture side. We perform a welfare analysis of price discrimination and show that prohibiting price discrimination improves welfare when there is a strong conflict between the two sides.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Doh‐Shin Jeon","Byung‐Cheol Kim","Domenico Menicucci"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190369","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a1e23f33d36bfe07","title":"The impact of a minimum wage increase on hours worked: heterogeneous effects by gender and sector","abstract":"A minimum wage increase could lead to adverse employment effects for certain subgroups of minimum wage workers, while leaving others unaffected. This heterogeneity could be overlooked in studies that examine the overall population of minimum wage workers. In this paper, we test for heterogeneous effects of a minimum wage increase on the hours worked of minimum wage employees in Ireland. For all minimum wage workers, we find that a 10% increase in the minimum wage leads to a one‐hour reduction in weekly hours worked, equating to an hours elasticity of approximately −0.3. However, for industry workers and those in the accommodation & food sector, the impact is larger, with elasticity −0.8. We also find a negative impact on the hours worked among men on minimum wage, with no significant effect for women. This is due to the disproportionate number of men working in sectors that show the greatest impact on hours. In line with suggestions from the recent literature, we attempt to identify directly those in receipt of minimum wage using hourly wage data, while also studying the dynamic impact on hours worked over multiple time periods using a fully flexible difference‐in‐differences estimator.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Paul Redmond","Séamus McGuinness"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12555","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a1ee457bbec53c26","title":"Imperfect competition with costly disposal","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of disposal costs on consumer surplus and firms’ profits. First, we analyze a monopolist producing inventories either early on at a low cost and with little information about demand, or later with more information yet at a higher cost. Unsold products are discarded. The firm forgoes an early production cost advantage if and only if the disposal cost and demand uncertainty are both simultaneously high. Expected disposal decreases in its cost, yet the firm lowers its production to mitigate costs, resulting in lower expected profit and consumer surplus. Similar results hold for firms competing in sales volumes with unobserved inventories. Ex-ante symmetric firms may choose different production timings. The disposal cost substitutes information about demand, thereby affecting a firm’s information advantage. Accordingly, a firm’s expected profit may increase with the disposal cost. Firms may adjust their production timing, resulting in a discontinuous change in the expected profit and consumer surplus.","wordCount":155,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Severin Lenhard"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102842","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a1f58442dd990345","title":"The HOLC Maps: How Race and Poverty Influenced Real Estate Professionals’ Evaluation of Lending Risk in the 1930s","abstract":"During the late 1930s, the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) developed a series of area descriptions with color-coded maps of cities that summarized mortgage lending risk. We analyze the maps to explain the oft-noted fact that black neighborhoods overwhelmingly received the lowest rating. Our results suggest that racial bias in the construction of the HOLC maps can explain at most 4 to 20 percent of the observed concentration of black households in the lowest-rated zones. We also provide evidence that the Federal Housing Administration had its own mapping strategies when evaluating mortgages and relied relatively little on the HOLC maps.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Price Fishback","Jessica LaVoice","Allison Shertzer","Randall Walsh"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050723000475","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a20d7c9dfb37765d","title":"News, sentiment and capital flows","abstract":"We examine empirically the effect of two types of shocks related to expectations – “news” (increases in expected future productivity) and “sentiment” (surges in optimism unrelated to future productivity) – on gross capital flows. These two shocks together explain more than 80% of the variation in gross capital flows at all horizons, with the largest part being due to sentiment shocks. Both these shocks drive a positive correlation between gross inflows and outflows but only sentiments shocks generate procyclical gross flows. We show that sentiment shocks are not accounted for by financial, monetary or uncertainty shocks, nor are they purely global. The empirical effect of news and sentiment shocks constitute a challenge to most theories of capital flows, but are consistent with the existence of asymmetric information between domestic and foreign investors about the country's fundamentals.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Kenza Benhima","Rachel Cordonier"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103621","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a216f8d5fd6ca3bd","title":"Dividend policy and investor pressure","abstract":"The economics of dividend policy has focused on the single tight narrative that dividends keep managers honest, mitigating concerns that they over-invest. This article provides a critique of that agency narrative, arguing that pressure from short-term focused investors, executives and board members pushes the firm into preemptive actions of returning too much cash via dividends. We analyze three channels of influence for investor pressure through 1) threat of takeovers, 2) shareholder value oriented corporate governance, measured by director independence and board equity incentives, and 3) trading and institutional ownership patterns. We find that firms adopt a higher dividend payout to discourage takeover bids. Also, FTSE 100 firms, that are most focused on shareholder value governance in the form of equity-based compensation and a higher share of independent directors, display a higher dividend payout. Frequency of trading and ownership by transient investors seeking current profits also predict increased dividend payout. Traditional agency theory, focused on dividends as a tool for managerial discipline, is not strongly supported by the results, which rather support a narrative of short-term investor pressure on firms irrespective of investment opportunities.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Ciarán Driver","Anna Grosman","Pasquale Scaramozzino"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a217b3b700a21061","title":"The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach‐for‐Yield, and Real Effects","abstract":"We identify the international credit channel by exploiting Mexican supervisory data sets and foreign monetary policy shocks in a country with a large presence of European and U.S. banks. A softening of foreign monetary policy expands credit supply of foreign banks (e.g., U.K. policy affects credit supply in Mexico via U.K. banks), inducing strong firm‐level real effects. Results support an international risk‐taking channel and spillovers of core countries’ monetary policies to emerging markets, both in the foreign monetary softening part (with higher credit and liquidity risk‐taking by foreign banks) and in the tightening part (with negative local firm‐level real effects).","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Bernardo Morais","José‐Luis Peydró","Jessica Roldán-Peña","Claudia Ruiz‐Ortega"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12735","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a2181b0d0a51535a","title":"The Economics of Attribute-Based Regulation: Theory and Evidence from Fuel Economy Standards","abstract":"This paper analyzes \"attribute-based regulations,\" in which regulatory compliance depends upon some secondary attribute that is not the intended target of the regulation. For example, in many countries, fuel-economy standards mandate that vehicles have a certain fuel economy, but heavier or larger vehicles are allowed to meet a lower standard. Such policies create perverse incentives to distort the attribute upon which compliance depends. We develop a theoretical framework to predict how actors will respond to attribute-based regulations and to characterize the welfare implications of these responses. To test our theoretical predictions, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in Japanese fuel economy regulations, under which fuel-economy targets are downward-sloping step functions of vehicle weight. Our bunching analysis reveals large distortions to vehicle weight induced by the policy. We then leverage panel data on vehicle redesigns to empirically investigate the welfare implications of attribute-basing, including both potential benefits and likely costs.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Koichiro Ito","James Sallee"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00704","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a21ec770ac96bd3a","title":"The role of tasks, contractual arrangements, and job composition in explaining the dynamics of wage inequality: Evidence from France","abstract":"The paper examines wage differentials in France over time, analysing the impact of various covariates at different points on the wage distribution scale. We simultaneously assess multiple potential explanatory factors, including the tasks performed by workers, organizational methods, contractual arrangements, and individual characteristics. To accomplish this, we utilize a unique worker-level database, the French Enquête Complémentaire Emploi: Conditions de travail, covering the period from 2005 to 2016. Our primary findings support the hypothesis that shifts in wage differentials across the wage distribution can be predominantly attributed to contractual and work arrangements, as opposed to tasks and organizational practices. Job composition and contractual arrangements emerge as pivotal factors in understanding the determinants and patterns of wage inequality among workers. In contrast, tasks' content and organizational methods appear to play a relatively minor, if any, role. In sum, the evidence presented in this article suggests that the RBTC hypothesis may not be generalised across countries. It underscores the importance of considering structural and institutional factors, particularly in countries characterized by highly regulated labour markets and a strong tradition of industrial relations.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Marta Fana","Luca Giangregorio"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102514","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a223266293cd9f08","title":"Obtaining consistent time series from Google Trends","abstract":"Google Trends data are a popular data source for research, but raw data are frequency‐inconsistent: daily data fail to capture long‐run trends. This issue has gone unnoticed in the literature. In addition, sampling noise can be substantial. We develop a procedure (available in an R‐package), which solves both issues at once. We apply this procedure to construct long‐run, frequency‐consistent daily economic indices for three German‐speaking countries. The resulting indices are significantly correlated with traditional leading economic indicators while being available in real time. We discuss potential applications across disciplines and spanning well beyond business cycle analysis.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Vera Z. Eichenauer","Ronald Indergand","Isabel Z. Martínez","Christoph Sax"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13049","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a224e4a998e77657","title":"Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves","abstract":"China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In contrast, inflation was overstated and growth understated during the low-inflation 1990s. These patterns hold for the food Engel curve, and for numerous other categories, such as grain as a fraction of food.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Emi Nakamura","Jón Steinsson","Miao Liu"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150074","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a228fae62136bc02","title":"The golden rule of longevity","abstract":"How much should society invest in medical care that extends the lives of the older generations? We derive a golden rule for the level of health care expenditures and find that the optimal level of life-extending health care expenditures should increase with rising productivity, increase with the retirement age, and also increase with the population growth rate if a higher growth rate lowers the ratio of retirees to working-age people sufficiently, while the effects of an improvement in medical technology are ambiguous. Moreover, we find that a market economy may be inefficient in terms of the provision of life-extending health care because an individual ignores the effect of his own longevity on the income of others.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Marias H. Gestsson","Gylfi Zoëga"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001371","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a2359113024b960d","title":"Long-term trends in income inequality: Winners and losers of economic change in Ghana, 1891–1960","abstract":"This paper contributes to a growing literature on long-term trends and drivers of pre-industrial inequality by providing new stylized facts on the evolution of income inequality in Ghana from 1891 to 1960. Using newly constructed social tables, we estimate the Gini coefficient for seven consecutive decades at a time in which the adoption and expansion of cocoa cultivation transformed the Ghanaian economy. Income inequality was already high in 1891, prior to the spread of cocoa cultivation, and it remained stable for four decades. Following a small decline in the early 1930s, inequality increased, reaching its highest level at the end of the colonial era. The expansion of cocoa cultivation and increasing cocoa incomes contributed to persistent high inequality levels until the 1930s. By contrast, the increase in inequality from 1930 to 1960 was largely due to the rising incomes of government employees, skilled workers, and commercial workers.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Prince Young Aboagye","Jutta Bolt"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101405","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a236efa805bd1a69","title":"Irreversible investment under predictable growth: Why land stays vacant when housing demand is booming","abstract":"The standard model of irreversible investment under uncertainty considers only the level of the cash flow that could be obtained through the investment. We present a general model that includes as state variables both the level and the growth rate of the cash flow, while the timing and size of the one-time investment are discretionary. As an illustration, we consider an investor with the exclusive right to develop a vacant piece of land, where the timing of the investment and the scale of the property are chosen optimally. We demonstrate that construction is optimally postponed when prospects are gloomy, but also when they are bright. Indeed, under sufficiently high growth it is, perversely, never optimal to invest. Under a cost-of-capital argument, the rational response to predictable growth combined with flexible investment conditions is to keep land vacant for extended periods, which may explain why construction in superstar cities often appears sluggish. Our proposed model can be used in all investment decisions, irrespective of sector, where the assumptions of predictable growth and a one-off, flexible but otherwise irreversible investment are met.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Rutger‐Jan Lange","Coen N. Teulings"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105776","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a2380d0afc08e6d3","title":"Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies","abstract":"This study examines the effects of global financial conditions on the asset markets of five fragile emerging economies—Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey—known as the Fragile Five. We estimate a structural vector autoregressive model with a block exogeneity procedure using high-frequency daily data and Bayesian inference. Our primary findings are as follows. (i) Global financial risk shocks have significant effects on government bond yields, equity prices, CDS spreads, and exchange rates in the Fragile Five. (ii) The effects differ considerably across the fragile countries and the assets. (iii) These country differentiations are strongly related to macroeconomic fundamentals. Finally, (iv) global financial risk shocks have a greater immediate effect on local currency government bond and CDS markets than on FX and stock markets.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Zekeriya Yıldırım"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.04.018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a23a254b9ae7915f","title":"A Rational Theory of Mutual Funds' Attention Allocation","abstract":"The question of whether and how mutual fund managers provide valuable services for their clients motivates one of the largest literatures in finance. One candidate explanation is that funds process information about future asset values and use that information to invest in high-valued assets. But formal theories are scarce because information choice models with many assets are difficult to solve as well as difficult to test. This paper tackles both problems by developing a new attention allocation model that uses the state of the business cycle to predict information choices, which in turn, predict observable patterns of portfolio investments and returns. The predictions about fund portfolios ’ covariance with payoff shocks, cross-fund portfolio and return dispersion, and their excess returns are all supported by the data. In turn, these findings offer new evidence that some investment managers have skill and that attention is allocated rationally.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Marcin Kacperczyk","Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh","Laura Veldkamp"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11412","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a243a47d094bc77d","title":"The Political Economy of the Prussian Three-Class Franchise","abstract":"How did the Prussian three-class franchise, which politically over-represented the economic elite, affect policies? Contrary to the predominant and simplistic view that the system allowed the landed elites to capture most political rents, we find that members of parliament from constituencies with a higher vote inequality support more liberal policies, gauging their political orientation from the universe of roll call votes cast in parliament during Prussia’s rapid industrialization (1867–1903). Consistent with the characteristics of German liberalism that aligned with economic interests of business, the link between vote inequality and liberal voting is stronger in regions with large-scale industry.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Sascha O. Becker","Erik Hornung"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000443","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a24ea67d41c562d3","title":"Do Smaller Classes Always Improve Students’ Long‐run Outcomes?","abstract":"We exploit the strict class size rule in Norway and matched individual and school register information for 1982–2011 to estimate long‐run causal effects on income and educational attainment. Contrary to recent evidence from the US and Sweden, we do not find any significant average effect on long‐run outcomes of reduced class size. We further use the large register data set and quasi‐experimental strategy to estimate whether the class size effect depends on external conditions facing students and schools, such as teacher quality, extent of upper secondary school choice, school district size, local fiscal constraints and labour market conditions. Overall, we find that the class size effect does not depend on these factors measured at the school district level. The absence of class size effects on long‐run outcomes in Norway is consistent with earlier findings for short‐run outcomes, using comparable data and empirical strategies.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Torberg Falch","Astrid Marie Jorde Sandsør","Bjarne Strøm"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12161","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a2640f5b079d3373","title":"Rational Inattention, Optimal Consideration Sets, and Stochastic Choice","abstract":"We unite two basic approaches to modelling limited attention in choice by showing that the rational inattention model implies the formation of consideration sets—only a subset of the available alternatives will be considered for choice. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for rationally inattentive behaviour which allow the identification of consideration sets. In simple settings, chosen options are those that are best on a stand-alone basis. In richer settings, the consideration set can only be identified holistically. In addition to payoffs, prior beliefs impact consideration sets. Linear inequalities identify all priors consistent with each possible consideration set.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Andrew Caplin","Mark Dean","John Leahy"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy037","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a26edab2ec246772","title":"Does board diversity in industry-experience boost firm value? The role of corporate innovation","abstract":"Previous studies examining board diversity disproportionately focus on directors' demographic features. In this paper, we construct a sophisticated measure of board diversity based on directors' industry-experience diversity (BIED) and examine its effect on firm value. Using a sample of S&P1500 firms, we find that higher BIED leads to higher firm value. This result survives both firm fixed effects and an instrumental variable approach, at least partially suggesting a causal relationship. We argue that a more diverse board brings more perspectives, viewpoints, knowledge and information to the firm, enhances directors’ capability of advising, and thus creates higher firm value. We further find one possible underlying economic mechanism through which BIED facilitates value creation. That is, BIED creates value by promoting corporate innovation. Overall, BIED constitutes a valuable corporate governance mechanism.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Peng Huang","Yue Lu","Ji Wu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106504","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a2713ff6727ab89b","title":"Precautionary Savings with Risky Assets: When Cash Is Not Cash","abstract":"U.S. industrial firms invest heavily in noncash, risky financial assets such as corporate debt, equity, and mortgage‐backed securities. Risky assets represent 40% of firms’ financial portfolios, or 6% of total book assets. We present a formal model to assess the optimality of this behavior. Consistent with the model, risky assets are concentrated in financially unconstrained firms holding large financial portfolios, are held by poorly governed firms, and are discounted by 13% to 22% compared to safe assets. We conclude that this activity represents an unregulated asset management industry of more than $1.5 trillion, questioning the traditional boundaries of nonfinancial firms.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Ran Duchin","Thomas Gilbert","Jarrad Harford","Christopher M. Hrdlicka"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12490","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a280b90dc55a8f60","title":"The propagation of uncertainty shocks: Rotemberg versus calvo","abstract":"This article studies the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity, focusing on inflation. Using a vector autoregression, I show that increased uncertainty has negative demand effects, reducing GDP and prices. I then consider standard New Keynesian models with Rotemberg‐type and Calvo‐type price rigidities. Despite the belief that the two schemes are equivalent, I show that they generate different dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks. In the Rotemberg model, uncertainty shocks decrease output and inflation, in line with the empirical results. By contrast, in the Calvo model, uncertainty shocks decrease output but raise inflation because of firms' precautionary pricing motive.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Joonseok Oh"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12450","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a28ad83ada5e31f4","title":"Systemic and idiosyncratic sovereign debt crises","abstract":"The theoretical literature on sovereign defaults has focused on adverse shocks to debtors' economies, suggesting that defaults are of an idiosyncratic nature. Still, sovereign debt crises are also of a systemic nature, clustered around panics in the financial center, such as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in the aftermath of the US Subprime Crisis in 2008. Crises in the financial centers are rare disasters and, thus, their effects on the periphery can only be captured by examining long episodes. In this paper, we examine sovereign defaults from 1820 to the Great Depression, with a focus on Latin America. We find that 63% of the crises are of a systemic nature. These crises are different. Both the international collapse of liquidity and the growth slowdown in the financial centers are at their core. These global shocks trigger longer default spells and larger losses for investors.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Graciela Kaminsky","Pablo Vega-García"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12165","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a29e8622842b55e5","title":"In search of attention in agricultural commodity markets","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of attention driven behaviour on agricultural commodity prices. We proxy attention driven behaviour using search queries for the commodity names in Google. We apply the ARDL model to estimate the impact of search queries on three internationally traded agricultural commodities – corn, wheat and soybean – using weakly data for the period 2009–2015. The results show that there is causal and permanent relationship between Google search queries and prices of corn and wheat confirming the presence of the attention driven behaviour. However, the estimates do not confirm this relationship for soybean price.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Tomáš Mišečka","Pavel Ciaian","Miroslava Rajčániová","Ján Pokrivčák"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108668","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a2b1e1d1e1086d7e","title":"Mindsets for Sustainability: Exploring the Link Between Mindfulness and Sustainable Climate Adaptation","abstract":"Growing globalisation and climate change are challenging the sustainability of our societies. It is now clear that climate change and its devastating impacts cannot be resolved by new technology or governance alone. They require a broader, cultural shift. As a result, the role of human beings' ‘inner dimensions’ and related transformations is attracting increased attention from researchers. Recent advances in neuroscience suggest for instance that mindfulness can open new pathways towards sustainability. However, the role of mindfulness in climate adaptation has been largely ignored. This paper is the first exploratory empirical investigation into linking individuals' intrinsic mindfulness (as opposed to outside mindfulness interventions) to pro- and reactive climate adaptation. Based on a survey of citizens at risk from severe climate events, we explore if, and how individual mindfulness is correlated with climate adaptation at different scales. The results show that individual mindfulness coincides with higher motivation to take climate adaptation actions or to support them, especially actions that are ‘other-focused’ or support pro-environmental behaviour. Mindfulness may also corroborate the acknowledgement of climate change and associated risk perception, and it may steer people away from fatalistic attitudes. We conclude with a call for more research into the relationship between human beings' inner dimensions and climate adaptation in the wider public domain.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Christine Wamsler","Ebba Brink"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.029","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a2b63ba23f1219ef","title":"Talent, basic research and growth","abstract":"Due to the public good nature of basic research, the mechanisms for rewarding talent are very different from those prevailing in the production of applied research by private actors. We develop a growth model in which such mechanisms are taken explicitly into account. This allows us to address the following fundamental questions: how do policies in the public research sector influence the effort and risk-taking decisions of researchers of different talent? How do these choices affect the aggregate production of basic research? What is the final impact on growth? The analysis shows that the design of research evaluation policies crucially affects both the long run rate of growth and the relationship between taxation and growth. A key and novel channel through which this occurs is the effect of basic research policy on the expected non-monetary benefits from being a researcher.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Carmen Marchiori","Enrico Minelli"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105721","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a2c52d4d27ecf649","title":"Airline Partnerships, Antitrust Immunity, and Joint Ventures: What We Know and What I Think We Would Like to Know","abstract":"This paper offers an overview of the state of research on airline partnerships and related issues: antitrust immunity, and joint ventures. While at a high level the potential pro- and anti-competitive effects of various forms of airline partnerships are well understood; a number of important gaps in our knowledge remain. For instance, academic research has yet to develop a clear way to differentiate between codesharing with and without immunity, and joint ventures with the use of the conventional IO modelling apparatus. Developing such theoretical models can be useful for policy makers. Future empirical research should focus on understanding the effects of joint ventures—as well as evaluating efficiency benefits of airline partnerships—and determining whether multimarket contact and repeated interaction could have led to the competitive environment that is conducive to tacit collusion.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Volodymyr Bilotkach"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-018-9636-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a2cbcf53f5e32f01","title":"It’s Raining Men! Hallelujah? The Long-Run Consequences of Male-Biased Sex Ratios","abstract":"We document the short- and long-run effects of male-biased sex ratios. We exploit a natural historical experiment where large numbers of male convicts and far fewer female convicts were sent to Australia in the 18th and 19th centuries. In areas with more male-biased sex ratios, women were historically more likely to get married and less likely to work outside the home. In these areas today, both men and women continue to have more conservative attitudes towards women working, and women work fewer hours outside the home. While these women enjoy more leisure, they are also less likely to work in high-ranking occupations. We demonstrate that the consequences of uneven sex ratios on cultural attitudes, labour supply decisions, and occupational choices can persist in the long run, well after sex ratios are back to the natural rate. We document the roles of vertical cultural transmission and marriage homogamy in sustaining this cultural persistence.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Pauline Grosjean","Rose Khattar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy025","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a2cddd88d3aa3279","title":"Measuring economic efficiency using inverse-optimum weights","abstract":"This paper provides a method to measure the traditional Kaldor-Hicks notion of “economic efficiency” when taxes affect behavior. In contrast to traditional unweighted surplus, measuring efficiency requires weighting individual benefits (or surplus) by the marginal cost to the government of providing a $1 transfer at each income level. These weights correspond to the solution to the “inverse-optimum” program in the optimal tax literature: they are the social planning weights that would rationalize the status quo tax schedule as optimal. I estimate the weights using the universe of US income tax returns from 2012. The results suggest that measuring economic efficiency requires weighting surplus accruing to the poor roughly 1.5–2 times more than surplus accruing to the rich. This is because $1 of surplus to the poor can be turned into roughly $1.5–$2 of surplus to the rich by reducing the progressivity of the tax schedule. Following Kaldor and Hicks' original applications, I compare income distributions over time in the US and across countries. The results suggest US economic growth is 15–20% lower due to increased inequality than is suggested by changes in GDP. Because of its higher inequality, the U.S. is unable to replicate the income distribution of countries like Austria and the Netherlands, despite having higher national income per capita.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Nathaniel Hendren"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104198","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a2d27dcd884a5ecd","title":"Chinese State Capitalism? Rethinking the Role of the State and Business in Chinese Development Cooperation in Africa","abstract":"The growing involvement of the Chinese state and business in Africa has generated significant debate about China’s Africa strategy and the benefits for Africa’s development. What is the nature of Chinese state capitalism in Africa? This study examines Chinese state–business relations and argues that China’s involvement in Africa is more complex than often portrayed. It aims to build a closer understanding of the diverse factors that influence the Chinese state–business relations as it is implemented in Africa. This paper focuses on how state–business interactions influence agricultural development outcomes, using six case-studies from Zimbabwe and Mozambique. It explores the question of how far the state can control business and direct development by identifying the key relationships that influence the decision-making processes of state and business actors within China and its African engagement. The paper challenges the conventional wisdom of homogenized, unitary relations. It argues that these relations are, in practice, heterogeneous, as a result of the state being disaggregated into a multiplicity of provincial relations and central state agencies, and tensions arising between commercial market and political interests. The active role of African governments in agricultural schemes is also affecting outcomes. China’s engagement is multivariate, involving a multiplicity of agencies, operating at different levels, structures, and processes with sometimes contrary interests and goals. The findings of an analysis of six state–business projects in the agricultural sectors of Zimbabwe and Mozambique suggest that where agriculture is concerned, a wide range of Chinese agencies are involved, with businesses being driven by either market forces or national state interests, which together make outcomes less open to generalization.","wordCount":263,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Jing Gu","Chuanhong Zhang","Alcides Costa Vaz","Langton Mukwereza"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.01.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a2d444dcccf97d7e","title":"Long-Run Effects of Lottery Wealth on Psychological Well-Being","abstract":"We surveyed a large sample of Swedish lottery players about their psychological well-being 5–22 years after a major lottery event and analysed the data following pre-registered procedures. Relative to matched controls, large-prize winners experience sustained increases in overall life satisfaction that persist for over a decade and show no evidence of dissipating over time. The estimated treatment effects on happiness and mental health are significantly smaller. Follow-up analyses of domain-specific aspects of life satisfaction implicate financial life satisfaction as an important mediator for the long-run increase in overall life satisfaction.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Erik Lindqvist","Robert Östling","David Cesarini"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a2d529ec5c50f611","title":"Small-sample tests for stock return predictability with possibly non-stationary regressors and GARCH-type effects","abstract":"We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns. The usefulness of the new procedure is demonstrated in a simulation study and by examining the ability of a group of financial variables to predict excess stock returns. We find some evidence of predictability during the period 1948–2014, driven entirely by the term spread. This empirical evidence, however, is much weaker over subsamples.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Sermin Gungor","Richard Luger"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.037","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a2ef9c7cb42baf5a","title":"Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake","abstract":"Using novel firm-level microdata and leveraging a natural experiment, this paper provides causal evidence for the role of trade and multinational firms in the cross-country transmission of shocks. The scope for trade linkages to generate cross-country spillovers depends on the elasticity of substitution with respect to domestic inputs. Using the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake as an exogenous shock, we structurally estimate production elasticities at the firm level and find greater complementarities in input usage than previously thought. For Japanese affiliates in the United States, output falls roughly one-for-one with declines in imports, consistent with a relationship between imported and domestic inputs that is close to Leontief.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Christoph Boehm","Aaron Flaaen","Nitya Pandalai-Nayar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00750","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a2fd3a884e21e8bc","title":"Preferences for partial information and ambiguity","abstract":"We commonly think of information as an instrument for better decisions, yet evidence suggests that people often decline free information in nonstrategic scenarios. This paper provides a theory for how a dynamically‐consistent decision maker can be averse to partial information as a consequence of ambiguity aversion. It introduces a class of recursive preferences on an extended choice domain, which allows the preferences to depend on how information is dynamically revealed and to depart from the standard expected‐utility theory. A new notion of ambiguity aversion, called Event Complementarity, exactly characterizes aversion to partial information. Familiar static ambiguity‐averse preferences are embedded into the general recursive model, in which conditions for partial information aversion are identified. The findings suggest that Event Complementarity overlaps with yet still differs from the conventional notion of ambiguity aversion.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Jian Li"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2851","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a316ecab13940bc4","title":"Monetary policy and intangible investment","abstract":"The investment and stock prices of firms with relatively more intangible assets respond less to monetary policy. Similarly, intangible investment responds less to monetary policy compared to tangible investment. These effects are most pronounced among financially constrained firms, indicating that corporate intangible capital weakens the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. The evidence that higher depreciation rates or higher adjustment costs of intangible assets explain these effects is mixed, suggesting a smaller role for these channels.","wordCount":76,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Robin Döttling","Lev Ratnovski"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.11.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a3258dccbda4f093","title":"Corporate culture as a theory of the firm","abstract":"Markets and firms offer contrasting methods to arrange production. In markets, contracts govern the purchase of parts and services. In firms, the shared values, customs and norms coming from a corporate culture govern employees' joint development of parts and services. We argue for this distinction as a theory of the firm. Firms exist because corporate culture at times is more efficient to carry out production than are detailed contracts. The firm's boundary encircles the areas of production for which a manager optimally chooses corporate culture as the organizing device. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model explains why some mergers and acquisitions fail, and why corporate cultures are hard to change.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Gary Gorton","Alexander Zentefis"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12537","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a33407cd723eef91","title":"Mandatory carbon disclosure and green committees","abstract":"The study examines how the United Kingdom (UK) mandatory greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) disclosure regulation affects the number of directors on environmental-related board committees. Using a difference-in-difference specification with a quasi-natural experiment set-up of the mandatory GHG disclosure regulation in the UK, the study finds firms listed on the UK main market increase their absolute and relative directors on environmental-related board committees after the passage of the regulation. This result is robust to a series of robustness tests that include alternative definitions of the treated and control groups and placebo tests.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Evans Ofosu Boamah"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110767","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a33664c963645878","title":"Understanding the Advice of Commissions-Motivated Agents: Evidence from the Indian Life Insurance Market","abstract":"We conduct a series of field experiments to evaluate the quality of advice provided by life insurance agents in India. Agents overwhelmingly recommend unsuitable, strictly dominated products that provide high commissions to the agent. Agents cater to the beliefs of uninformed consumers, even when those beliefs are wrong. We also find that agents appear to focus on maximizing the amount of premiums (and therefore their commissions) that customers pay, as opposed to focusing on how much insurance coverage customers need. A natural experiment requiring disclosure of commissions for a specific product results in agents recommending alternative products with high commissions but no disclosure requirement. A follow-up agent survey sheds light on the extent to which poor advice reflects both the commission incentives and agents’ limited product knowledge.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Santosh Anagol","Shawn Cole","Shayak Sarkar"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00625","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a33c2b3cd5ce6099","title":"Monetary policy uncertainty and economic fluctuations","abstract":"We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first‐order effect on their dynamics. The data favor a model with two unspanned volatility factors that capture uncertainty about monetary policy and the term premium. Uncertainty contributes negatively to economic activity. Two dimensions of uncertainty react in opposite directions to a shock to the real economy, and the response of inflation to uncertainty shocks varies across different historical episodes.","wordCount":94,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Drew Creal","Jing Cynthia Wu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12253","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a34eee13cd1a0088","title":"Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam","abstract":"Do investors reach for yield when interest rates are low and does this behavior affect the housing market? Using the unique setting and data of 18th-century Amsterdam, I show that reach-for-yield behavior of wealthy investors resulted in a large boom and bust in house prices and major changes in rental yields. Exploiting changes in the supply of bonds, I show that investors living off capital income shifted their portfolios towards real estate and other higher-yielding assets when bond yields were low and decreasing. This behavior exacerbated house price volatility and increased housing wealth inequality.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Matthijs Korevaar"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a3510218bc8af328","title":"Dynamic contracting: An irrelevance theorem","abstract":"This paper generalizes a conceptual insight in dynamic contracting with quasilinear payoffs: the principal does not need to pay any information rents for extracting the agent's “new” private information obtained after signing the contract. This is shown in a general model in which the agent's type stochastically evolves over time, and her payoff (which is linear in transfers) depends on the entire history of private and any contractible information, contractible decisions, and her hidden actions. The contract is offered by the principal in the presence of initial informational asymmetry. The model can be transformed into an equivalent one where the agent's subsequent information is independent in each period (type orthogonalization). We show that for any fixed decision–action rule implemented by a mechanism, the agent's rents (as well as the principal's maximal revenue) are the same as if the principal could observe and contract on the agent's orthogonalized types after the initial period. We also show that any monotonic decision–action rule can be implemented in a Markovian environment satisfying certain regularity conditions, and we provide a simple “recipe” for solving such dynamic contracting problems.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Péter Eső","Balázs Szentes"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2127","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a3528a2b59383955","title":"Strategy sets closed under payoff sampling","abstract":"We consider population games played by procedurally rational players who, when revising their current strategy, test each of their available strategies independently in a series of random matches –i.e., a battery of tests–, and then choose the strategy that performed best in this battery of tests. This revision protocol leads to the so-called payoff-sampling dynamics (aka test-all Best Experienced Payoff dynamics). In this paper we characterize the support of all the rest points of these dynamics in any game and analyze the asymptotic stability of the faces to which they belong. We do this by defining strategy sets closed under payoff sampling, and by proving that the identification of these sets can be made in terms of simple comparisons between some of the payoffs of the game.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Segismundo S. Izquierdo","Luis R. Izquierdo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.12.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a364a45d2020999c","title":"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs","abstract":"This paper reports the results of two randomized field experiments, each offering different populations of Chicago youth a supported summer job. The program consistently reduces violent-crime arrests, even after the summer, without improving employment, schooling, or other arrests; if anything, property crime increases over two to three years. Using a new machine learning method, we uncover heterogeneity in employment impacts that standard methods would miss, describe who benefits, and leverage the heterogeneity to explore mechanisms. We conclude that brief youth employment programs can generate important behavioral change, but for different outcomes, youth, and reasons than those most often considered in the literature.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Jonathan M. Davis","Sara Heller"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00850","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a37755c76c287964","title":"Persistence of state-level uncertainty of the United States: The role of climate risks","abstract":"Recent theoretical developments tend to suggest that rare disaster risks enhance the persistence of uncertainty. Given this, we analyse the impact of climate risks (temperature growth or its volatility), as proxies for such unusual events, on the persistence of economic and policy-related uncertainty of the 50 US states in a panel data set-up, over the monthly period of 1984:03 to 2019:12. Using impulse response functions (IRFs) from a regime-based local projections (LPs) model, we show that the impact of an uncertainty shock on uncertainty itself is not only bigger in magnitude when the economy is in the upper-regime of temperature growth or its volatility, but is also, in line with theory, is more persistent. Our results have important policy implications.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Xin Sheng","Rangan Gupta","Oğuzhan Çepni"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110500","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a37af8673a9b4aff","title":"Are risk premia related to real exchange rate swings? Evidence from<i>i</i>(2) cvars with survey expectations","abstract":"This paper finds strong evidence of a positive relationship between currency risk premia and real exchange rate swings, significant at the 1% if not 0.1% level, for three US$ exchange rate samples. The risk premia are measured using survey data on traders' exchange rate forecasts. This circumvents the need for an auxiliary hypothesis of rationality and enables more direct focus on risk behavior. The analysis is conducted using the I (2) cointegrated VAR, which allows for time-varying trends in the variables. Evidence of persistent changes is found for interest rates, prices, and nominal and real exchange rates. Interest rate shocks appear to drive the system, whereas expectations are correcting only in the longer run.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Josh Stillwagon"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051600016x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a3844692ca8c2157","title":"Income Underreporting and Tax Evasion in Italy: Estimates and Distributional Effects","abstract":"The paper estimates the extent of evasion of personal income tax (PIT) in Italy by integrating two methods that the literature has previously applied separately. The consumption‐based method introduced by Pissarides and Weber (1989) is used to estimate misreporting of income in micro data collected in the household IT‐SILC survey. We adopt an econometric specification close in spirit to that of Feldman and Slemrod (2007), which allows us to estimate income misreporting at different rates for different income sources. The misreporting estimates are then used in the discrepancy method to correct the incomes compared with administrative registered data. The comparison provides new estimates of evasion of personal income tax by type of income, region and income class. The estimates are used to improve microsimulation analyses of the distributional impact of tax evasion.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Andrea Albarea","Michele Bernasconi","Anna Marenzi","Dino Rizzi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12444","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a38d74d55c725fd7","title":"Ecological macroeconomics: Introduction and review","abstract":"The Great Recession of the past years has brought macroeconomics back. Many of the recession's phenomena, causes and consequences alike, cannot be understood using solely microeconomic decision-making. Over the past decades the economics profession has pursued the implications of rational choices and enshrined them in so-called micro-foundations as a hallmark of modern economic theory. By focusing on the choices and actions of individual consumers, firms, or the government, however, one can easily miss important determinants of the economic system which only arise at the meso- or the macroeconomic levels where institutions, coordination, and complexity in general are important and sometimes even can take on a life of their own. To lesser extent, ecological economics has fallen prone to similar pitfalls by mostly focusing the unit of investigation on low-level, small-scale subsystems of the economy. There are, of course, notable exceptions including the early contributors Boulding and Georgescu-Roegen and the general interest of ecological economists in the field of (ecological) macroeconomics has been increasing.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Armon Rezai","Sigrid Stagl"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.12.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a392ab7ace36cff8","title":"Usage-Based Pricing and Demand for Residential Broadband","abstract":"We estimate demand for residential broadband using high-frequency data from subscribers facing a three-part tariff. The three-part tariff makes data usage during the billing cycle a dynamic problem, thus generating variation in the (shadow) price of usage. We provide evidence that subscribers respond to this variation, and we use their dynamic decisions to estimate a flexible distribution of willingness to pay for different plan characteristics. Using the estimates, we simulate demand under alternative pricing and find that usage-based pricing eliminates low-value traffic. Furthermore, we show that the costs associated with investment in fiber-optic networks are likely recoverable in some markets, but that there is a large gap between social and private incentives to invest.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Aviv Nevo","John L. Turner","Jonathan W. Williams"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11927","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a39718898f1c318e","title":"Declining Labor and Capital Shares","abstract":"This paper presents direct measures of capital costs, equal to the product of the required rate of return on capital and the value of the capital stock. The capital share, equal to the ratio of capital costs and gross value added, does not offset the decline in the labor share. Instead, a large increase in the share of pure profits offsets declines in the shares of both labor and capital. Industry data show that increases in concentration are associated with declines in the labor share.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Simcha Barkai"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12909","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a3c3d6c0d4fd78cd","title":"Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment","abstract":"Expectations play a crucial role in modern macroeconomic models. We consider a New Keynesian framework under a behavioral model of expectation formation and under rational expectations. Contrary to the rational model, the behavioral model predicts that inflation volatility can be lowered if the central bank reacts to the output gap in addition to inflation. We test the opposing theoretical predictions in a learning-to-forecast experiment. In line with the behavioral model, the results support the claim that output stabilization can lead to less volatile inflation.","wordCount":84,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Cars Hommes","Domenico Massaro","Matthias Weber"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.05.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a3c96a224fc7d753","title":"Distributed governance and value creation in decentralized autonomous organizations: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design","abstract":"Effect amplified by voter participation, DAO democratization, and DAO decentralization. Distributed governance mechanisms increase tokenholders value in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) when decision-making is contested. Using a comprehensive dataset of proposals voted on within blockchain-based DAOs from 2020 to 2024, we exploit a regression discontinuity design on proposals that pass or fail by a close margin around the majority threshold. Local average treatment effects indicate that proposal passage increases DAO token returns by 4.7 % at the margin. Further, a one standard deviation increase in vote participation amplifies this effect by 2.2 %. Proxies for democratization and decentralization also increase the value-creating effect of contested decision-making in DAOs. Our findings contribute to understanding how distributed governance structures create value in digital organizations.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Valerio Lo Monaco","Paul P. Momtaz","Silvio Vismara"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112233","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a3dd67529a06fc18","title":"Trade impact of maximum residue limits in fresh fruits and vegetables","abstract":"Interfering maximum residue limits (MRLs) for pesticides with agricultural trade is becoming important for food and trade policies in the early 21st century. Differing levels for pesticide residues among countries have the potential to disrupt trade significantly. We employ a non-linear and disaggregated stringency index to quantify the degree of regulatory heterogeneity levels for pesticides between trading nations for fruits and vegetables in 2013 and 2014 and investigate the trade-restricting nature of this measure using the structural gravity framework. Our findings indicate that stricter importer MRLs reduce bilateral trade to the tune of 8.8%. Looking closer at MRLs with US partners, the effect of stricter MRLs is quite elastic concerning its impact on the US - EU trade. In particular, the estimates imply that a more stringent MRL’s policy decreases the US export of fruits and vegetables to the EU members by a striking 13.8%. At the disaggregated level of MRL indices over different classes of chemicals, the results indicate that there is a significant gap in regulations regarding MRLs among several major US foreign markets for fruits and vegetables, particularly in the EU and the Trans-Pacific trading partners.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Mina Hejazi","Jason H. Grant","Everett Peterson"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102203","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a3de53087b4a3c5f","title":"Euro, crisis and unemployment: Youth patterns, youth policies?","abstract":"This paper examines the occurrence of structural breaks in European unemployment associated with major institutional events. We uncover different responses of adult and youth unemployment rates. While adult unemployment is more prone to experience structural breaks, youth unemployment is more sensitive to business cycle oscillations, especially in the recent crisis. This calls for fine tuning policy measures specifically targeted to youth unemployed in bad times. One important implication of our findings is that generic labour market reforms are not effective enough to solve the youth unemployment problem. Educational policies raising average qualifications and helping school-to-work transitions are suitable complementary cures.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Atanu Ghoshray","Javier Ordóñez","Héctor Sala"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.017","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a3f0fc0ff64845db","title":"Did regional economic diversity influence the effects of the great recession?","abstract":"Using data for U.S. counties from 2005 to 2012, we test whether higher levels of economic diversity mediated the effects of the Great Recession via four measures of stability. Spatial spillover effects are modeled by the use of the spatial Durbin estimator with heteroscedastic errors. The data generally support the central hypothesis that higher levels of diversity within a county are associated with enhanced employment stability across all counties as well as subsets of metro and nonmetro counties. Results for wage stability, however, appear to contradict our other findings. We suggest that underlying labor elasticities can bridge these apparent contradictory results.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Steven C. Deller","Philip Watson"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12323","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a3f1258643607e10","title":"Learning your own risk preferences","abstract":"Do people know their own risk preferences, or do risk choices change with experience and observation? We provide a straightforward test in the laboratory. People make an initial decision concerning a lottery choice and then experience 24 unpaid practice periods in which they roll the dice, record the outcome, and record the would-be payoff. They then make a final decision for the lottery choice; one of the first and last periods is randomly chosen for payment. Our primary hypothesis is that people will become less risk-averse by having made and experienced the practice rolls. We do find that people are significantly more likely to become less risk-averse than more risk-averse over time. We note that this move towards assuming increased risk goes in the opposite direction from what is at least arguably predicted by loss aversion and reference dependence. We find that women’s preferences change much less during a session than men’s preferences change. We feel that our literally hands-on approach ensures a degree of engagement that helps to accelerate the learning process. We argue that measures obtained after people have had experience with a mechanism are more meaningful, and that this principle might well extend more generally to other elicitation tasks.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Gary Charness","Nir Chemaya","Dario Trujano-Ochoa"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09413-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a3f624a9653cbc59","title":"How much profit shifting do European banks do?","abstract":"This paper studies whether and to what extent the largest and systemically relevant European multinational banks engage in profit shifting to lower their tax burden. We exploit unique data on bank operations reported on a country-by-country basis since 2015 in compliance with European legislation. The dataset contains information on profits, turnover, taxes paid and employment of bank affiliates worldwide, including tax and regulatory havens. In our empirical model, profits shifting incentives are captured through a weighted average of international tax rate differences between all countries where the bank is active. We find that international tax differences trigger the geographical distribution of profits within multinational banks, and that low tax jurisdictions, notably tax havens, attract disproportionately high profits. Our results suggest that, overall, 21% of profits is shifted. Moreover, profits in tax havens are 51% higher than they would be without tax-motivated profit shifting, pointing to a significant reduction of tax bases in high-tax countries.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Serena Fatica","Wildmer Daniel Gregori"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.01.026","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a3fb0fcaae5f5b68","title":"Trust Busting: The Effect of Fraud on Investor Behavior","abstract":"We study the importance of trust in the investment advisory industry by exploiting the geographic dispersion of victims of the Madoff Ponzi scheme. Residents of communities that were exposed to the fraud subsequently withdrew assets from investment advisers and increased deposits at banks. Additionally, exposed advisers were more likely to close. Advisers who provided services that can build trust, such as financial planning advice, experienced fewer withdrawals. Our evidence suggests that the trust shock was transmitted through social networks. Taken together, our results show that trust plays a critical role in the financial intermediation industry.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Umit G. Gurun","Noah Stoffman","Scott E. Yonker"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx058","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a401212ddaa39ab9","title":"Local Crowding‐Out in China","abstract":"In China, between 2006 and 2013, local public debt crowded out the investment of private firms by tightening their funding constraints while leaving state‐owned firms' investment unaffected. We establish this result using a purpose‐built data set for Chinese local public debt. Private firms invest less in cities with more public debt, with the reduction in investment larger for firms located farther from banks in other cities or more dependent on external funding. Moreover, in cities where public debt is high, private firms' investment is more sensitive to internal cash flow.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Yi Huang","Marco Pagano","Ugo Panizza"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12966","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a408f5be9810ac74","title":"Viewpoint: The case for a six-dimensional food security framework","abstract":"The definition of food security has evolved and changed over the past 50 years, including the introduction of the four commonly cited pillars of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability, which have been important in shaping policy. In this article, we make the case that it is time for a formal update to our definition of food security to include two additional dimensions proposed by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition: agency and sustainability. We show that the impact of widening food system inequalities and growing awareness of the intricate connections between ecological systems and food systems highlight the importance of these additional dimensions to the concept. We further outline the ways in which international policy guidance on the right to food already implies both agency and sustainability alongside the more established four pillars, making it a logical next step to adopt a six dimensional framework for food security in both policy and scholarly settings. We also show that advances have already been made with respect to providing measurements of agency and sustainability as they relate to food insecurity.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Jennifer A. Clapp (University of Waterloo)","William G. Moseley","Barbara Burlingame","Paola Termine"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102164","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a40fd51affb27310","title":"Shock resistors or transmitters? Contagion across industries and countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis","abstract":"The ability to spot immune markets has implications for portfolio diversification. We examine how global shocks from various sources propagate across industries and countries. Financial contagion is measured using residual-based and volatility-adjusted correlation. Specific industries and countries were resilient during both global crises, while others played a significant role in transmitting shocks.","wordCount":52,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Hadi Harb","Mehmet Umutlu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112026","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a42c64ab0f920edb","title":"Unemployment and social exclusion","abstract":"This paper analyzes those economic and social consequences of job loss which contribute to exclusion from society, based on German linked survey and administrative data. In order to study the causal relationship between unemployment and multiple dimensions of social marginalization, I combine inverse propensity score weighting with a difference-in-differences approach. The results suggest that job loss has particularly detrimental effects on the subjective perception of social integration, life satisfaction, access to economic resources and an individual’s mental health. Moreover, this paper shows that becoming unemployed hinders the fulfillment of psychosocial needs that are typically associated with employment, such as social status and higher self-efficacy. The effects of job loss are long-lasting, grow more profound the longer the duration of unemployment and persist following reemployment. Looking at effect heterogeneity, I find that having a partner and being highly educated reduces the negative effects of job loss.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Laura Pohlan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.06.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a4341b87309f9389","title":"Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?","abstract":"Climate change will impact current and future generations in different regions very differently. This paper develops the first large-scale, annually calibrated, multi-region, overlapping generations model of climate change and carbon policy. It features region-specific temperature and damage functions with the phased impact of emissions on global and regional temperature calibrated to the latest scientific evidence. Absent policy, climate change may, under high-damage scenarios, dramatically reduce GDP in most regions, with India, Brazil, and the South Asian Pacific suffering long-term catastrophic damages. Carbon taxation, coupled with region- and generation-specific transfers, can both correct the carbon externality and raise the welfare of all current and future agents across all regions by 4.3 percent. The impact on the use and duration of fossil fuels is dramatic as is the reduction in the path of global emissions. However, achieving completely uniform welfare gains leaves future generations in particular regions facing exceptionally high compensatory payments. Fortunately, a carbon tax-cum redistribution policy that limits this burden for any generation in any region to less than 10 percent, measured on a consumption-equivalent basis, can deliver a 4.0 percent or higher welfare gain for all peoplekind — present and future. However, carbon taxes set through time, at carbon’s marginal social cost, do far too little to mitigate climate change unless all major emitters, particularly China, adopt them and do so immediately.","wordCount":223,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Laurence J. Kotlikoff","Felix Kübler","Andrey Polbin","Simon Scheidegger"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104819","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a439f2c25510f4b6","title":"Local labour demand and immigrant employment","abstract":"This study investigates the effect of local labour demand on employment of immigrant workers. We address the challenge of location sorting by estimating the effects of initial local labour demand for refugees who were subject to the Danish Spatial Dispersal Policy from 1999–2010. After location assignment, refugees participate in a 3-year introduction programme; eligibility to means-tested welfare benefits during programme participation is conditional on residing in the assigned municipality. We use full population Danish administrative registers that contain information on admission class of immigrants and identify refugee status without any measurement error. Our findings show that four years after assignment, 83% of refugees still live in the assigned municipality. Moreover, assignment to a municipality with a one percentage point higher employment rate increases the employment probability of refugees by 0.5–0.6 percentage points (elasticities 1.1–1.8) two to four years after arrival in Denmark. We also find consistent significant effects of alternative measures of local labour demand on employment chances of refugees. Our results provide quasi-experimental evidence that immigrant employment is sensitive to labour market conditions in the initial location and highlight the importance of carefully designing refugee allocation policies.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Luz Azlor","Anna Piil Damm","Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101808","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a442d2fe189a54e2","title":"China’s Mobility Barriers and Employment Allocations","abstract":"China’s hukou system imposes two main barriers to population movements. Agricultural workers get land to cultivate but are unable to trade it in a frictionless market. Social transfers (education, health, etc.) are conditional on holding a local hukou. We show that the land policy leads to over-employment in agriculture and it is the more important barrier to industrialization. Effective land tenure guarantees and a competitive rental market would correct this inefficiency. The local restrictions on social transfers also act as disincentives to migration with bigger impact on urban migrations than to job moves to rural enterprises.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["L. Rachel Ngai","Christopher A. Pissarides","Wang Jin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy035","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a44da2bbb6eabfc0","title":"Safety at work and immigration","abstract":"This paper examines the effect of immigration on workplace safety, an understudied outcome in the literature. We use a novel administrative dataset of the universe of workplace accidents reported in Spain from 2003 to 2015 and follow an instrumental variables (IV) strategy based on the distribution of early migrants across provinces. Our results show that the massive inflow of immigrants between 2003 and 2009 reduced the number of workplace accidents by 10,980 for native workers (7% of the overall reduction during that period). This decline in workplace accidents is driven by Spanish-born workers shifting away from manual occupations to occupations involving more interpersonal interactions. Immigrant flows during the economic crisis (2010–2015) had no impact on natives’ workplace safety. The scarcity of jobs during that period may have prevented shifts between occupations. Finally, we find no effects of immigration on the workplace safety of immigrants. These results add a previously unexplored dimension to the immigration debate that should be taken into account when evaluating the costs and benefits of migration flows.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Cristina Bellés‐Obrero","Nicolau Martín Bassols","Judit Vall Castelló"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00791-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a44e0bfc66b8e1b7","title":"Game on: Social networks and markets","abstract":"I present closed-form solutions for prices, portfolios, and beliefs in a model where four types of investors trade assets over time: naive investors who learn via a social network, “fanatics” possibly spreading fake news, and rational short- and long-term investors. I show that fanatic and rational views dominate over time, and their relative importance depends on their following by influencers. Securities markets exhibit social network spillovers, large effects of influencers and thought leaders, bubbles, bursts of high volume, price momentum, fundamental momentum, and reversal. The model sheds new light on the GameStop event, historical bubbles, and asset markets more generally.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.05.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a45731822195d010","title":"Finite resources and the world economy","abstract":"We build and evaluate a global macroeconomic model incorporating natural-resource scarcity. The model features low short-run substitutability between the natural resource and other inputs, while in the longer run endogenous directed technical change—allowing the economy to save on scarce resources—generates much higher substitutability, with rather stable cost shares. A nontrivial feature of the framework is secularly increasing resource use: initially, when the resource is abundant, much less is used of it, and as physical and human capital are accumulated, its use increases. The model is also able to generate highly volatile prices at higher frequencies.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["John Hassler","Per Krusell","Conny Olovsson"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103592","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a4770521ff2287a5","title":"The gender aspect of migrants’ assimilation in Europe","abstract":"The labor market performance of migrants relative to natives has been widely studied but its gender dimension has been relatively neglected. Our paper aims at revisiting labor market convergence between migrants and natives and examining this dimension in a comprehensive study of the EU-15 countries and Switzerland over the period 1999-2018. We measure convergence of labor market outcomes, such as employment probability, for male and female migrants to similar natives before and after the Great Recession and across countries of destination. Our results show that in most countries female migrants start with a larger employment gap but converge more rapidly than male migrants do. We also provide an overview of the correlation between potential factors such as economic conditions, labor market structures, institutions and attitudes towards migrants and women and employment convergence of male and female migrants. While we do not identify very significant correlations at the national level, we find a strong correlation between attitudes towards migrants and their employment convergence across sub-national regions.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Taehoon Lee","Giovanni Peri","Martina Viarengo"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102180","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a4775b08311280e2","title":"Transparency and Trust in Government. Evidence from a Survey Experiment","abstract":"Does providing information improve citizens’ perception of government transparency? Does all information matter the same for shaping perceptions about the government? This article addresses these questions in the context of an online randomized survey experiment conducted in Argentina. Results show that providing information to citizens matters for shaping perceptions about transparency, and the content of that information matters for affecting the evaluation people make about the government. Those who received a treatment showing that the government was over-performing on its promises had higher trust in the government than those who received a treatment showing that the government was under-performing. The evidence highlights that the relationship between transparency and trust may be mediated by the performance of the government. Our complementary analytical discussion shows that the rules for disclosing information may be important for transparency to matter.","wordCount":136,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Martín Alessandro","Bruno Cardinale Lagomarsino","Carlos Scartascini","Jorge M. Streb","Jerónimo Torrealday"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105223","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a478375cab421d03","title":"Consumer Valuation of Fuel Costs and Tax Policy: Evidence from the European Car Market","abstract":"To what extent do car buyers undervalue future fuel costs, and what does this imply for tax policy? To address both questions, we show it is crucial to account for consumer mileage heterogeneity. We use product-level data for a panel of European countries and exploit fuel cost variation by engine. Despite a modest undervaluation of fuel costs, fuel taxes are more effective in reducing fuel usage than product taxes. They also perform better in terms of welfare, even when usage demand is held fixed. The reason is that fuel taxes better target high mileage consumers to purchase fuel efficient cars.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Laura Verboven Grigolon","Mathias Reynaert","Frank Verboven"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160078","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a47a933365c3587e","title":"Bank adaptation to neighborhood change: Mortgage lending and the Community Reinvestment Act","abstract":"This research explores whether banks strategically leverage regulatory rules for the Community Reinvestment Act that fix a neighborhood's eligibility status over a decade based on a neighborhood's economic trajectory over that decade. Using 2004–2011 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, we find that banks approve loans more frequently in those neighborhoods that are most rapidly improving, and that this effect is stronger if the neighborhoods are CRA-eligible low- and moderate-income (LMI) tracts. We find the “moving up” CRA premium ranges in magnitude from a 2 to 13 percent reduction in the likelihood an application is not approved. These results suggest that banks learn which neighborhoods are most rapidly improving and funnel activity to those places to reduce default risk while complying with the fair lending regulation. The results imply a potential unanticipated consequence of the regulation is that it changes the distribution of resources within the target population.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Hyojung Lee","Raphael W. Bostic"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.103211","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a4926b61fecc8096","title":"Trillions gained and lost: Estimating the magnitude of growth episodes","abstract":"An increasingly large literature in the empirics of growth has viewed economic growth as an ‘episodic phenomena’. We propose a new technique for measuring the total magnitude of a growth episode: the change in output per capita resulting from one structural break in the trend growth of output (acceleration or deceleration) to the next. Our method allows us to quantify the amount of income gain and loss during growth accelerations and growth decelerations. We show that the income gains and losses are staggering in magnitude, often multiples of the level of income at the start of the growth episode. The top 20 growth accelerations have a net present value (NPV) magnitude of 30 trillion dollars—twice the US GDP. The top 20 growth decelerations account for 35 trillion dollars less in NPV of output. What explains such ‘staggering’ gains and losses in income over relatively short periods is the key question that future research on economic growth should try and address.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Lant Pritchett","Kunal Sen","Sabyasachi Kar","Selim Raihan"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.020","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a4a2886813c15da3","title":"Further Results on the Weak Instruments Problem of the System GMM Estimator in Dynamic Panel Data Models","abstract":"In this paper, we investigate the weak instruments problem of the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for dynamic panel data models. Specifically, we complement Bun and Windmeijer (2010) by considering the alternative first‐difference and level models transformed by the forward GLS transformation. We demonstrate that this transformation yields a higher concentration parameter compared with the original models. This indicates that the proposed transformation yields stronger instruments even though the instruments used are identical. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the system GMM estimator for the transformed model, called the forward system GMM estimator , performs better than the conventional system GMM estimator.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Kazuhiko Hayakawa","Meng Qi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12336","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a4a2a2e9067ebe73","title":"Earnings Dynamics, Changing Job Skills, and STEM Careers","abstract":"This article studies the impact of changing job skills on career earnings dynamics for college graduates. We measure changes in the skill content of occupations between 2007 and 2019 using detailed job descriptions from a near universe of online job postings. We then develop a simple model where the returns to work experience are a race between on-the-job learning and skill obsolescence. Obsolescence lowers the return to experience, flattening the age-earnings profile in faster-changing careers. We show that the earnings premium for college graduates majoring in technology-intensive subjects such as computer science, engineering, and business declines rapidly, and that these graduates sort out of faster-changing occupations as they gain experience.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David Deming","Kadeem Noray"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa021","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a4bb2da0f44049d7","title":"What Drives Differences in Management Practices?","abstract":"Partnering with the US Census Bureau, we implement a new survey of “structured” management practices in two waves of 35,000 manufacturing plants in 2010 and 2015. We find an enormous dispersion of management practices across plants, with 40 percent of this variation across plants within the same firm. Management practices account for more than 20 percent of the variation in productivity, a similar, or greater, percentage as that accounted for by R&D, ICT, or human capital. We find evidence of two key drivers to improve management. The business environment, as measured by right-to-work laws, boosts incentive management practices. Learning spillovers, as measured by the arrival of large “Million Dollar Plants” in the county, increases the management scores of incumbents.","wordCount":119,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Nicholas Bloom","Erik Brynjolfsson","Lucia Foster","Ron S. Jarmin","Megha Patnaik","Itay Saporta‐Eksten","John Van Reenen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170491","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a4bc9b9eae386f04","title":"Development aid and infant mortality. Micro-level evidence from Nigeria","abstract":"While there is a vast literature studying the effects of official development aid (ODA) on economic growth, there are far fewer comparative studies addressing how aid affects health outcomes. Furthermore, while much attention has been paid to country-level effects of aid, there is a clear knowledge gap in the literature when it comes to systematic studies of aid effectiveness below the country-level. Addressing this gap, we undertake what we believe is the first systematic attempt to study how ODA affects infant mortality at the subnational level. We match new geographic aid data from the AidData on the precise location, type, and time frame of bilateral and multilateral aid projects in Nigeria with available georeferenced survey data from five Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys. Using quasi-experimental approaches, with mother fixed-effects, we are able to control for a vast number of unobserved factors that may otherwise be spuriously correlated with both infant mortality and ODA. The results indicate very clearly that geographical proximity to active aid projects reduces infant mortality. Moreover, aid contributes to reduce systematic inter-group, or horizontal, inequalities in a setting where such differences loom large. In particular, we find that aid more effectively reduces infant mortality in less privileged groups like children of Muslim women, and children living in rural, and in Muslim-dominated areas. Finally, there is evidence that aid projects are established in areas that on average have lower infant mortality than non-aid locations, suggesting that there are biases resulting in aid not necessarily reaching those populations in greatest need.","wordCount":252,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Andreas Kotsadam","Gudrun Østby","Siri Aas Rustad","Andreas Forø Tollefsen","Henrik Urdal"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.022","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a4c0f2d0ae0ad112","title":"Hours, Occupations, and Gender Differences in Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"Goldin (2014) offers a narrative in which gender differences in home production responsibilities create gender gaps in labor market outcomes. We carry out a model-based quantitative assessment of this narrative and find that it can account for a significant share of gender gaps in occupational choice, wages, and hours. Our analysis emphasizes the quantitative significance of two key elements not highlighted by Goldin: heterogeneity in comparative advantage and multimember households. Gender differences in nonmarket responsibilities have important aggregate effects on welfare and productivity, similar to those emphasized by Hsieh et al. (2019).","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Andrés Erosa","Luisa Fuster","Gueorgui Kambourov","Richard Rogerson"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200318","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a4c2959cba9d4f67","title":"Is economic policy uncertainty important to forecast the realized volatility of crude oil futures?","abstract":"In this research, we first investigate whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index can increase the HAR-RV-type models’ forecast accuracy. In addition, we explore how EPU index can be effectively used to gain larger economic values in the oil futures market. To this end, this research provides a new perspective on setting thresholds for EPU and examines whether these thresholds can help improve both the forecast accuracy and economic values. Empirical results suggest that the HAR-RV-type models including EPU can generate more accurate forecasts and economic values. The HAR-RV-type models including above-threshold EPU can further improve the forecast accuracy and yield higher economic values by setting specific thresholds for a range of horizons. The findings highlight the importance of EPU and effective way of using EPU in risk management and portfolio strategies that is crucial for investors and policymakers.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Feng Ma","M.I.M. Wahab","Jing Liu","Li Liu"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1388909","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a4c7cf7eb153350f","title":"Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimated output gap lines up well with the [working paper series] chronology of the business cycle for the euro area and we find that hours worked, more than the unemployment rate, provides the key source of information about labor utilization in the economy, especially in pinning down the depth of the output gap during the COVID-19 recession when the unemployment rate rose only moderately. Our findings confirm that labor market adjustments to the business cycle in the euro area occur more through the intensive, rather than extensive, margin.","wordCount":134,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["James Morley","Diego Rodríguez-Palenzuela","Yiqiao Sun","Benjamin Wong"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104385","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a4ccb22d686528cf","title":"Explaining adoption and use of payment instruments by US consumers","abstract":"Motivated by recent policy intervention into payments markets, we develop and estimate a structural model of adoption and use of payment instruments by U.S. consumers. Our structural model differentiates between the adoption and use of payment instruments. We evaluate substitution among payment instruments and welfare implications. Cash is the most significant substitute to debit cards in retail settings, whereas checks are the most significant in bill‐pay settings. Furthermore, low income consumers lose proportionally more than high income consumers when debit cards become more expensive, whereas the reverse is true when credit cards do.","wordCount":93,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Sergei Koulayev","Marc Rysman","Scott Schuh","Joanna Stavins"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12129","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a4e6c6f592d22cc0","title":"Trade and Income—Exploiting Time Series in Geography","abstract":"Establishing a robust causal relationship between trade and income has been difficult. Frankel and Romer (1999) uses a geographic instrument to identify a positive effect of trade on income. Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) shows that these results are not robust to controlling for omitted variables such as distance to the equator or institutions. This paper solves the omitted variable problem by generating a time-varying geographic instrument. Improvements in aircraft technology have caused the quantity of world trade carried by air to increase over time. Country pairs with relatively short air routes compared to sea routes benefit more from this change in technology. This heterogeneity can be used to generate a geography-based instrument for trade that varies over time. The time-series variation allows for controls for country fixed effects, eliminating the bias from time-invariant variables such as distance from the equator or historically determined institutions. Trade has a significant effect on income with an elasticity of roughly one-half. Differences in predicted trade growth can explain roughly 17 percent of the variation in cross-country income growth between 1960 and 1995.","wordCount":178,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["James Feyrer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170616","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a4f06272881e5b00","title":"An experiment on outcome uncertainty","abstract":"We report the evidence of a multi-stage lab experiment on individual decision making under ambiguity, where the latter is characterized by the (partial or) absence of information on some monetary values in the support of the lottery distributions. This complements the standard treatment of uncertainty where decision makers know the monetary prizes, but probabilities are uncertain. We use both a structural and a non-structural approach when analyzing subjects’ behavior under risk, compound risk, and outcome ambiguity. Our main finding is that subjects are risk-averse and ambiguity lovers in that they evaluate more optimistically uncertain payoffs under ambiguity compared to compound risk. We also study how subjects evaluate scenarios with uncertain outcomes: 60% of choices are consistent with the Expected Utility paradigm, while 40% of them are better described by a heuristic we label as “naïve,” in which the order of integration of Expected Utility is reversed (that is, they first form a point estimate of the uncertain payoffs, and then they evaluate the lotteries’ expected utility). Finally, we also find that risk and ambiguity aversion are positively correlated.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Pedro Albarrán","J.L. Miguel Alonso","Carmen Herrero","Giovanni Ponti","Marcello Sartarelli","Diletta Topazio"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09448-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a505d042a3014eed","title":"The risk elicitation puzzle revisited: Across-methods (in)consistency?","abstract":"With the rise of experimental research in the social sciences, numerous methods to elicit and classify people's risk attitudes in the laboratory have evolved. However, evidence suggests that attitudes towards risk may vary considerably when measured with different methods. Based on a within-subject experimental design using four widespread risk preference elicitation tasks, we find that the different methods indeed give rise to considerably varying estimates of individual and aggregate level risk preferences. Conducting simulation exercises to obtain benchmarks for subjects' behavior, we find that the observed heterogeneity in risk preference estimates across methods is qualitatively similar to the heterogeneity arising from independent random draws from the choice distributions observed in the experiment. Our study, however, provides evidence that subjects are surprisingly well aware of the variation in the riskiness of their choices. We argue that this calls into question the common interpretation of variation in revealed risk preferences as being inconsistent.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Felix Holzmeister","Matthias Stefan"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09674-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a50d19cca1806f6a","title":"Investigating Treatment Effects of Participating Jointly in SNAP and WIC when the Treatment Is Validated Only for SNAP","abstract":"The U.S. Department of Agriculture operates several food assistance programs aimed at alleviating food insecurity. We study whether participation in both participation in both SNAP and WIC alleviates food insecurity compared with participation in SNAP alone. We bound underlying causal effects by applying nonparametric treatment effect methods that allow for endogenous selection and underreported program participation when validation data are available for one program (treatment) but not the other. We estimate average treatment effects using data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS). FoodAPS includes administrative data to validate SNAP participation. Information on local food prices allows us to construct a food expenditure‐based monotone instrumental variable that does not require a typical instrumental variable exclusion restriction. Under relatively weak monotonicity assumptions, we identify that the impact of participating in both programs relative to SNAP alone is strictly positive, suggesting that the programs are nonredundant. This evidence can support improved design and targeting of food programs.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Helen H. Jensen","Brent Kreider","Oleksandr Zhylyevskyy"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12365","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a513a27f1a2e4cb5","title":"Climate change, energy security risk, and clean energy investment","abstract":"We examine the impact of climate change on energy security risk and explore the role of clean energy investment in reducing this impact. By exploiting a recently developed historical energy security risk dataset alongside climate change and clean energy investment datasets, we demonstrate that climate change enhances energy security risk. Additionally, we show that investment in clean energy can reduce the impact of climate change on energy security risk. This mitigating effect of clean energy investment is more pronounced in countries with slower population growth, the capacity to invest in robust energy infrastructures, and lower corruption practices. To optimize the role of clean energy investment in reducing the impact of climate change, it is crucial to establish robust energy systems, control population growth, maintain higher environmental standards, and limit corruption practices, among other measures.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Bernard Njindan Iyke"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107225","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a517439e2b98c26f","title":"Impulsiveness moderates the effects of exogenous attention on the sensitivity to gains and losses in risky lotteries","abstract":"Does attention have a causal impact on risky decisions? We address this question in a preregistered experiment in which participants accept or reject a series of mixed gambles while exogenously varying how information can be sampled. Specifically, in each trial participants observe the outcomes of a mixed-gamble with gains and losses presented sequentially. To isolate the causal role of attention on the decision process, we manipulate for how long a specific attribute is presented before showing the next one (e.g., 600 ms/800 ms vs 400 ms). Our results partially confirm our preregistered hypotheses that longer exposure to an attribute increases its weight on the decision. While we find no effects on choice frequency, we observe specific effects on the decision weights of our Random Utility Model. Presenting losses longer (for 600 ms, but not 800 ms) than gains (400 ms) leads to increased sensitivity for losses. When gains are presented for longer (600 ms and 800 ms) than losses (400 ms), the participants show increased sensitivity to both gain and loss values in their decision. Loss aversion reflects this trend across attention treatments, but differences remain non-significant. Further exploratory analyses show that specifically participants with higher impulsiveness become more sensitive to attribute values when gains are presented for longer. Jointly, these results support the notion that attention has a causal impact on the sensitivity to specific attributes during risky choice. Moreover, our results underline the moderating role of impulsiveness on the relationship between attention and choice.","wordCount":246,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Alejandro Hirmas","Jan B. Engelmann"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102600","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a53548e623d4529c","title":"The value of a statistical life under changes in ambiguity","abstract":"The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a key parameter in the analysis of government policy. Most policy decisions are made under ambiguity. This paper studies the effect of changes in ambiguity perception on the VSL. We propose a definition of increases in ambiguity perception based on Ekern’s (1980) definition of increases in risk. Ambiguity aversion alone is not sufficient to lead to an increase in the VSL when the decision maker perceives more ambiguity. Our results highlight the importance of higher order ambiguity attitudes, particularly ambiguity prudence.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Han Bleichrodt","Christophe Courbage","Béatrice Rey"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09296-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a563e91d27e3bb01","title":"Race, Gender, and Juries: Evidence from North Carolina","abstract":"This paper uses data from felony jury trials in North Carolina to show that the race and gender composition of the randomly selected jury pool has a significant effect on the probability of conviction, attorneys adjust peremptory-challenge strategies in accordance, and state peremptory challenges have a positive impact on the conviction rate when the defendant is a black male. Jury pools with higher proportions of white men are more likely to convict black male defendants relative to white male defendants. Jury pools with a higher proportion of black men are more likely to acquit all defendants, especially black men. Attorneys use peremptory challenges strategically in accordance with these results, which are robust to a wide set of controls, including county and judge fixed effects. Each state peremptory challenge is correlated with a 2.4–2.9-percentage-point increase in the conviction rate when the defendant is black.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Francis Flanagan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/698193","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a5696edf5bb25211","title":"Give Me Liberty, or I Will Produce Underground: Effects of Economic Freedom on the Shadow Economy","abstract":"This article examines the impact of economic freedom on the shadow economy. Using panel data on over 100 countries from 2000 to 2015, we find that economic freedom is effective at reducing the spread of the shadow economy. Moreover, after disaggregating economic freedom into its five main components, the results suggest that all aspects of economic freedom significantly mitigate shadow activities with freedom from regulation exhibiting the largest impact. Overall, these findings are robust after accounting for alternate measures of the shadow economy, simultaneity, outliers, and nonlinearities. Thus, countries aiming to combat the spread of shadow activities would benefit from policies that support economic freedom.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Aziz N. Berdiev","James W. Saunoris","Friedrich Schneider"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12303","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a57bc4fa5c1ac248","title":"How does extreme heat affect carbon emission intensity? Evidence from county-level data in China","abstract":"This study investigates the impact of increasingly frequent extreme heat events due to climate change on carbon emission intensities in China. Using spline regressions on county-level data from 2000 to 2019, we identify an asymmetric U-shaped relationship between daily mean temperatures and carbon intensities. Each additional day with temperatures above 33 °C in each location results in a 0.9% rise in the average annual carbon intensity, driven by higher energy consumption for cooling. We also explore the mitigating effects of China's low-carbon city initiatives and emissions trading scheme. By combining our estimation results with future temperature trajectories, we simulate that, in the long run, China's carbon intensity can increase by 8–13% under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and 24–51% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Our findings underscore the urgency for policymakers to thoroughly assess the socioeconomic impacts of heat waves and incorporate climate resilience into overall sustainable development plans.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Lei Jiang","Linshuang Yang","Qingyang Wu","Xinyue Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106814","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a581d52479e5e328","title":"The trans‐Atlantic slave trade and local political fragmentation in Africa","abstract":"This article examines the possibility that the trans‐Atlantic slave trade influenced the political institutions of villages and towns in precolonial Africa. Using anthropological data, it shows that villages and towns of ethnic groups with higher slave exports were more politically fragmented during the precolonial era. Instrumental variables are used to show that the relationship is causal. It is argued that this fragmentation is important for relative economic development because it still influences political institutions today. This argument is supported by the use of more contemporary data to show that in contemporary Nigeria and Tanzania, areas with higher levels of precolonial political fragmentation have a higher incidence of bribery.","wordCount":108,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Nonso Obikili"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12328","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a584de70196751f8","title":"The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations: Evidence from the U.S. Retail Sector","abstract":"This article examines how product innovations led to inflation inequality in the United States from 2004 to 2015. Using scanner data from the retail sector, I find that annual inflation for retail products was 0.661 (std. err. 0.0535) percentage points higher for the bottom income quintile relative to the top income quintile. When including changes in product variety over time, this difference increases to 0.8846 (std. err. 0.0739) percentage points a year. In CEX-CPI data covering the full consumption basket, the annual inflation difference is 0.368 (std. err. 0.0502) percentage points. I investigate the following hypothesis: (i) the relative demand for products consumed by high-income households increased because of growth and rising inequality; (ii) in response, firms introduced more new products catering to such households; (iii) as a result, the prices of continuing products in these market segments fell due to increased competitive pressure. Using a shift-share research design, I find causal evidence that increasing relative demand leads to increasing product variety and lower inflation for continuing products. A calibration indicates that the hypothesized channel accounts for a large fraction (over 50%) of observed inflation inequality.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Xavier Jaravel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a58af75855179b73","title":"The role of employer learning and regulatory interventions in mitigating executive gender pay gap","abstract":"This paper examines the role of information and regulatory interventions in mitigating the executive gender pay gap. We find female executives receive about 34% less compared to equivalent males from the same cohort, which falls by half over tenure within the company, but remains systematically significant throughout. The gender pay gap is the highest for young female executives and in the financial sector. Both demand-side (board gender quotas) and supply-side (family policies) regulatory interventions are associated with a lower gender gap in executive pay. Board gender quotas are associated with lower gender pay gap for experienced female executives in the highest age bracket. In contrast, supply-side interventions are associated with lower gender pay gap for the youngest female executives. Our results have important implications for the relative effectiveness of public policies that aim to reduce gender imbalance in corporate leadership and pay.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Swarnodeep Homroy","Shibashish Mukherjee"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101857","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a59b97ee1f4342eb","title":"Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation","abstract":"New firms are an important source of job creation, but the underlying economic mechanisms for why this is so are not well understood. Using an identification strategy that links shocks to local income to job creation in the nontradable sector, we ask whether job creation arises more through new firm creation or through the expansion of existing firms. We find that new firms account for the bulk of net employment creation in response to local investment opportunities. We also find significant gross job creation and destruction by existing firms, suggesting that positive local shocks accelerate churn.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Manuel Adelino","Song Ma","David T. Robinson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12495","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a59d5a75089fbcbe","title":"Does the Media Help the General Public in Understanding Inflation?","abstract":"This paper studies whether media information helps the general public in understanding inflation. We combine detailed Dutch household survey data on media usage, inflation perceptions, and inflation expectations. We find no evidence that more‐often informed members of the general public do better in understanding inflation. In fact, more frequent readership of popular newspapers is associated with slightly less accurate inflation perceptions. There is also no evidence that usage of non‐print media leads to more accurate of views on inflation. One implication of these results is that central banks might need to consider more direct ways of engaging with the general public.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["David‐Jan Jansen","Matthias Neuenkirch"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12252","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a5addf648b7a12ba","title":"Trade and Domestic Production Networks","abstract":"We examine how many and what kind of firms ultimately rely on foreign inputs, sell to foreign markets, and are affected by trade shocks. To capture that firms can trade indirectly by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. We find that most firms use a lot of foreign inputs, but only a small number of firms show that dependence through direct imports. While direct exporters are rare, a majority of firms are indirectly exporting. In most firms, however, indirect export is quantitatively modest, and sales at home are the key source of revenue. We show that what matters for the transmission of foreign demand shocks to a firm’s revenue is how much the firm ultimately sells to foreign markets, not whether these sales are from direct or indirect export.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Emmanuël Dhyne","Ayumu Ken Kikkawa","Magne Mogstad","Felix Tintelnot"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa062","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a5b22913aadda9ac","title":"Financial contagion drivers during recent global crises","abstract":"Whenever a crisis hits, it is likely to spread simultaneously among stock markets due to their interconnection. This phenomenon, known in the literature as financial contagion, may have a long-lasting effect and manifest itself in herd behavior. A sample of worldwide MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) indices covering the subprime, European, and COVID-19 crises is used to study the presence of contagion, its transmission channels, and potential herd behavior. These channels—real linkages, financial mechanisms, or investor beliefs—are proxied by macrofinance factors. Their impact on stock correlations is tested using an extension of the dynamic conditional correlation model that includes external regressors. Results show evidence of contagion during the three crises, driven mainly by investor expectations and their effects on volatility. Moreover, during the COVID-19 crisis, the dissemination of information, as measured through text-based indices, played a significant role in market contagion and led to herd behavior.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Julián Pineda","Lina M. Cortés","Javier Perote"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106067","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a5be050be94139d4","title":"Extreme high temperatures and adaptation by social dynamics: Theory and evidence from China","abstract":"Using a novel city-level high-frequency panel dataset of social and public events in Chinese cities, we document that extreme high temperatures significantly reshape social dynamics. Extreme high temperatures increase social cooperation, and the effects are more pronounced when labor productivity is lower and environmental awareness is higher. Our estimates, combined with a quantitative model, indicate that humanity adapts to climate change in part by reshaping social dynamics. Adaptation offsets nearly 10% of the negative economic impacts of extreme high temperatures. Our quantitative analysis suggests that directly subsidizing cooperation is the most effective strategy for mitigating the adverse effects of extreme high temperatures.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Jiaowei Gong","Xiangyu Shi","Chang Wang","Xin Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106989","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a5c5786edd44ab9e","title":"Employment protection and firm-provided training in dual labour markets","abstract":"In this paper we leverage a labour market reform (Fornero Law) which reduced firing restrictions for open-ended contracts in the case of firms with more than 15 employees in Italy. The results from a Difference in Regression Discontinuities design demonstrate that after the reform, the number of trained workers increased in firms just above the threshold by approximately 1.5 additional workers. We show that this effect can be explained by the reduction in worker turnover and a higher use of permanent contracts. Our study highlights the potentially adverse effects of employment protection legislation on training in dual labour markets.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Massimiliano Bratti","Maurizio Conti","Giovanni Sulis"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.101972","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a5cb91b0f4896658","title":"Accuracy and retaliation in repeated games with imperfect private monitoring: Experiments","abstract":"We experimentally examine repeated prisoner's dilemma with random termination, in which monitoring is imperfect and private. Our estimation indicates that a significant proportion of the subjects follows generous tit-for-tat strategies, which are stochastic extensions of tit-for-tat. However, the observed retaliating policies are inconsistent with the generous tit-for-tat equilibrium behavior. Showing inconsistent behavior, subjects with low accuracy do not tend to retaliate more than those with high accuracy. Furthermore, subjects with low accuracy tend to retaliate considerably with lesser strength than that predicted by the equilibrium theory, while subjects with high accuracy tend to retaliate with more strength than that predicted by the equilibrium theory, or with strength almost equivalent to it.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Yutaka Kayaba","Hitoshi Matsushima","Tomohisa Toyama"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.12.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a5cd1ec8d8247763","title":"Culture and Compliance: Evidence from the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme","abstract":"I study the role of culture in firms’ compliance decisions in the context of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, an international regulation implemented in multiple countries with different levels of cultural indicators. To probe causality, I look within countries and exploit the differences in the locations of central headquarters of multinational firms. Using trust as a main cultural indicator, this exercise reveals that installations owned by firms headquartered in high-trust countries were more likely to comply with the regulation than those owned by firms headquartered in low-trust countries, even when they operated in the same geographic area. Using other relevant indicators of culture such as morality and civic virtue yields similar results, which suggests that culture, measured by several indicators, exerts influence on the compliance behavior of firms.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Ara Jo"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711158","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a5d0e3d54ab45421","title":"Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity","abstract":"We find that deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition imply large, persistent, and systematic arbitrage opportunities in one of the largest asset markets in the world. Contrary to the common view, these deviations for major currencies are not explained away by credit risk or transaction costs. They are particularly strong for forward contracts that appear on banks' balance sheets at the end of the quarter, pointing to a causal effect of banking regulation on asset prices. The CIP deviations also appear significantly correlated with other fixed income spreads and with nominal interest rates.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Wenxin Du","Alexander Tepper","Adrien Verdelhan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12620","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a5d689d26d5b7f33","title":"Can artificial intelligence technology innovation boost energy resilience? The role of green finance","abstract":"Energy systems are very fragile and vulnerable to various external shocks, so improving their resilience enables them to cope better. An important channel for building energy resilience is Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, which provides innovative avenues for addressing this challenge. This study uses data from a balanced panel of 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2019 to empirically evaluate how AI technology advancement affects China's energy resilience. Our study also examines the heterogeneity and possible impact mechanisms. The results show that AI technology innovation can effectively promote energy resilience. The study conducts several robustness checks to confirm the validity of this finding. However, this facilitation varies by region, with the highest effect in the central area, followed by the eastern and western regions. Moreover, the advancement of green finance is developed through AI technology innovation, which indirectly enhances energy resilience. This study aims to analyze the ability to improve energy systems' resilience through AI technology innovation, which provides valuable lessons for policymakers.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Rabindra Nepal","Xiaomeng Zhao","Kangyin Dong","Jianda Wang","Arshian Sharif"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108159","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a5dfc5636fa972d7","title":"Early childhood health and schooling attainment gaps within and across countries","abstract":"This paper develops a theory of human capital to investigate the role of early childhood health in explaining the large and persistent schooling gaps observed within and across countries. Quantitative analysis using the theory and data from 98 countries shows that early health inequalities within developing countries strongly amplify later schooling gaps— counterfactually eliminating inequalities reduces schooling Ginis by an average of 18% in developing economies but has only mild effects in richer countries. Moreover, early health inequalities are found to be an important source of schooling variation across countries— universally equating early health to the average US level reduces the cross-country standard deviation of average schooling attainment by over 40%. Additional policy experiments reveal that the gains from early health interventions tend to be amplified by later educational investments in developing economies, while those targeting school-aged children may be limited if early health conditions are ignored.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Ray Miller"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000500","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a5f3ee989b12abd1","title":"Knowledge transfer and partial equity ownership","abstract":"An alliance often involves one firm acquiring an equity stake in its alliance partner. We explore oligopoly models that capture the link between knowledge transfer and partial equity ownership (PEO), where alliance partners can choose the level of PEO. PEO can increase the alliance partners' profitability by inducing knowledge transfer, but the PEO itself reduces their joint profit because it induces other firms to take more aggressive actions. This trade‐off endogenously determines the level of PEO, which can benefit consumers and/or improve welfare. Given the growing antitrust interest in PEO, we explore the antitrust implications of our analysis.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Arghya Ghosh","Hodaka Morita"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12213","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a627baf9b2057110","title":"Unmet Need for Workplace Accommodation","abstract":"We use experimental survey methods in a nationally representative survey to test alternative ways of identifying (1) individuals in the population who would be better able to work if they received workplace accommodation for a health condition; (2) the rate at which these individuals receive workplace accommodation; and (3) the rate at which accommodated workers are still working four years later, compared to similar workers who were not accommodated. We find that question order in disability surveys matters. We present suggestive evidence of priming effects that lead people to understate accommodation when first asked about very severe disabilities. We also find a sizeable fraction of workers who report they receive a workplace accommodation for a health problem but do not report work limitations per se. Our preferred estimate of the size of the accommodation‐sensitive population is 22.8 percent of all working‐age adults. We find that 47 to 58 percent of accommodation‐sensitive individuals lack accommodation and would benefit from some kind of employer accommodation to either sustain or commence work. Finally, among accommodation‐sensitive individuals, workers who were accommodated for a health problem in 2014 were 13.2 percentage points more likely to work in 2018 than those who were not accommodated in 2014.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Nicole Maestas","Kathleen J. Mullen","Stephanie Rennane"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22148","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a62e266753f269b0","title":"Skilled Labor Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences","abstract":"This paper revisits the question of how allowing for imperfect substitution among workers with different skill levels affects the results of development accounting. We consider a range of models that nest the approaches in the literature and calibrate them to a common set of moments, including particularly evidence on the wage gains of migrants. We obtain two main results. First, human capital accounts for between one-half and three-fourths of cross-country income gaps. Second, human capital accounts for only modest variation in the relative productivity of skilled versus unskilled labor.","wordCount":89,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Lutz Hendricks","Todd Schoellman"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200256","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a62e9ab59954a131","title":"What Matters to Individual Investors? Evidence from the Horse's Mouth","abstract":"We survey a representative sample of U.S. individuals about how well leading academic theories describe their financial beliefs and decisions. We find substantial support for many factors hypothesized to affect portfolio equity share, particularly background risk, investment horizon, rare disasters, transactional factors, and fixed costs of stock market participation. Individuals tend to believe that past mutual fund performance is a good signal of stock‐picking skill, actively managed funds do not suffer from diseconomies of scale, value stocks are safer and do not have higher expected returns, and high‐momentum stocks are riskier and do have higher expected returns.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["James J. Choi","Adriana Robertson"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12895","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a638662f9e9b727f","title":"Capital flows and the international credit channel","abstract":"We examine the role of the international credit channel in Turkey over 2005–2013. We show that larger, more capitalized banks with higher non-core liabilities increase credit supply when capital inflows are higher. This result is stronger for domestic banks relative to foreign banks and survives during the crisis period of post-2008, when foreign banks in general stop lending in emerging markets and retreat to their home countries. By decomposing capital inflows into bank and non-bank flows, we show the importance of domestic banks' external borrowing for domestic credit growth.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Yusuf Soner Başkaya","Julian di Giovanni","Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan","José‐Luis Peydró","Mehmet Fatih Ulu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a640baa54387ba40","title":"Gender gap in tenure and promotion: Evidence from the economics Ph.D. class of 2008","abstract":"This study examines early career outcomes (i.e., tenure and promotion) of the Economics Ph.D. class of 2008. We find that female economists are less likely (by up to 15.8%) to have received tenure and promotion 8 years post‐graduation compared to males in the same cohort. The gender gap becomes more pronounced (e.g., 36.5% less likely to receive tenure/promotion) among individuals of foreign origins working in the United States. In addition, we find a similar gender bias regarding whether an individual remains on tenure‐track positions since the initial job placement in 2008. Adding to the literature, our analysis sheds light on the gender gap in the Economics profession from a broad international perspective.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Jihui Chen","Qihong Liu","Myongjin Kim"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12567","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a65ecaa512c756d2","title":"The limits to moral erosion in markets: Social norms and the replacement excuse","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of a key feature of competitive markets on moral behavior: the possibility that a competitor might step in and conclude the deal if a conscientious market actor forgoes a profitable business opportunity for ethical reasons. In a series of experiments, we study whether people invoke the replacement excuse, that is, the argument “if I don't do it, someone else will,” to justify narrowly self-interested actions. Our data are consistent with the possibility that the existence of a clear social norm of moral conduct can limit the impact of the availability of the replacement excuse on behavior.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Björn Bartling","Yagiz Özdemir"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a65f778e15a58cf8","title":"Financial intermediaries’ instability and euro area macroeconomic dynamics","abstract":"Fitting a Markov-switching structural vector autoregression to euro area data, we show that, after taking into account heteroskedasticity, the differences in the behavior of the economy between tranquil and financial distress periods (e.g., Great Recession and sovereign debt crisis) reflect variations in the transmission mechanism. When and only when a period of financial distress occurs, disruptions in financial intermediation trigger adverse effects for the real economy and turn out to be the primary source of business cycle fluctuations. Finally, we provide strong evidence that ECB interventions in the financial sector had beneficial effects on the real economy during the sovereign debt crisis.","wordCount":102,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Stéphane Lhuissier"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.06.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a662a27ae609ca39","title":"Skill Requirements across Firms and Labor Markets: Evidence from Job Postings for Professionals","abstract":"We study variation in skill demands for professionals across firms and labor markets. We categorize a wide range of keywords found in job ads into 10 general skills. There is substantial variation in these skill requirements, even within narrowly defined occupations. Focusing particularly on cognitive and social skills, we find positive correlations between each skill and external measures of pay and firm performance. We also find evidence of a cognitive social skill complementarity for both outcomes. As a whole, job skills have explanatory power in pay and firm performance regressions beyond what is available in widely used labor market data.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["David Deming","Lisa Kahn"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/694106","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a6679f2965130d80","title":"Common volatility shocks driven by the global carbon transition","abstract":"We propose a novel approach to measure the global effects of climate change news on financial markets. For that purpose, we first calculate the global common volatility of the oil and gas industry. Then we project it on climate-related shocks constructed using text-based proxies of climate change news. We show that rising concerns about the energy transition make oil and gas share prices move at the global scale, controlling for shocks to the oil price, US and world stock markets. Despite the clear exposure of oil and gas companies to carbon transition risk, not all geoclimatic shocks are alike. The signs and magnitudes of the impacts differ across climate risk drivers. Regarding sentiment, climate change news tends to create turmoil only when the news is negative. Moreover, the adverse effect is amplified by oil price movements but weakened by stock market shocks. Finally, our findings point out climate news materialises when it reaches the global scale, supporting the relevance of modelling geoclimatic volatility.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Susana Campos-Martins","David F. Hendry"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.05.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a677181a7812a540","title":"Out-of-sample equity premium predictability and sample split–invariant inference","abstract":"For a comprehensive set of 21 equity premium predictors we find extreme variation in out-of-sample predictability results depending on the choice of the sample split date. To resolve this issue we propose reporting in graphical form the out-of-sample predictability criteria for every possible sample split, and two out-of-sample tests that are invariant to the sample split choice. We provide Monte Carlo evidence that our bootstrap-based inference is valid. The in-sample, and the sample split invariant out-of-sample mean and maximum tests that we propose, are in broad agreement. Finally we demonstrate how one can construct sample split invariant out-of-sample predictability tests that simultaneously control for data mining across many variables.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Gueorgui I. Kolev","Raša Karapandža"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.07.017","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a67ed63085b4663e","title":"The Persistence of Harvest Shocks in Medieval England","abstract":"I present evidence that shocks to the Medieval English harvest persisted. Hypothesized mechanisms include varying supplies of seed corn and other complementary harvest inputs. Peasants are modeled as trading off current consumption against grain stores and sow rates so that subsistence-level shocks may persist. For my sample I find that a failed harvest increased the probability of subsequent harvest failure by 20–30 percent. Grain yields are analyzed as a strongly balanced panel by year, manor, and crop. While I reject the hypothesis that harvests were self-contained annual events, I caution against linking harvest persistence directly to runs in grain prices.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Cliff Bekar"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000524","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a6899749dfc61c0d","title":"Why Invest in Emerging Markets? The Role of Conditional Return Asymmetry","abstract":"We propose a quantile‐based measure of conditional skewness, particularly suitable for handling recalcitrant emerging market (EM) returns. The skewness of international stock market returns varies significantly across countries over time, and persists at long horizons. In EMs, skewness is mostly positive and idiosyncratic, and significantly relates to a country's financial and trade openness and balance of payments. In an international portfolio setting, return asymmetry leads to sizeable certainty‐equivalent gains and increases the weight on emerging countries to about 30%. Investing in EMs seems to be about expectations of a higher upside than downside, consistent with recent theories.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Éric Ghysels","Alberto Plazzi","Rossen Valkanov"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12420","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a68e07a5cb20c029","title":"Health Impacts of the Green Revolution: Evidence from 600,000 births across the Developing World","abstract":"century? We provide global scale estimates of this relationship by constructing a novel, spatially-precise indicator of modern crop variety (MV) diffusion and leveraging child-level data from over 600,000 children across 21,604 sampling locations in 37 developing countries between 1961-2000. Results indicate that the diffusion of MVs reduced infant mortality by 2.4-5.3 percentage points (from a baseline of 18%), with stronger effects for male infants and among poor households. The sizable contribution of agricultural technology to improved welfare should inform global food and development policy.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jan von der Goltz","Aaditya Dar","Ram Fishman","Nathaniel D. Mueller","Prabhat Barnwal","Gordon C. McCord"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102373","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a69650ed20d249c4","title":"Channeling Fisher: Randomization Tests and the Statistical Insignificance of Seemingly Significant Experimental Results","abstract":"I follow R. A. Fisher's The Design of Experiments (1935), using randomization statistical inference to test the null hypothesis of no treatment effects in a comprehensive sample of 53 experimental papers drawn from the journals of the American Economic Association. In the average paper, randomization tests of the significance of individual treatment effects find 13% to 22% fewer significant results than are found using authors’ methods. In joint tests of multiple treatment effects appearing together in tables, randomization tests yield 33% to 49% fewer statistically significant results than conventional tests. Bootstrap and jackknife methods support and confirm the randomization results.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Alwyn Young"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy029","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a69863749a943033","title":"The role of information in nudging Chinese consumers from choosing sugar to alternative sweeteners","abstract":"This study investigates consumers' beliefs and valuations toward added sugar and sugar substitutes and assesses the impacts of information intervention in nudging individual healthy food choices, in the context of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in China. Using a between-subject design, a discrete choice experiment, and a sample of 1800 urban Chinese consumers, we find a positive preference among Chinese consumers for sugar-sweetened beverages with low-sugar content, compared to zero-sugar and high-sugar alternatives. Chinese residents dislike sweeteners mainly due to concerns about their safety. However, individual valuations for sweeteners in both zero-sugar and low-sugar food products are significantly improved after providing information about the function and safety of the sweeteners. Policy implications for reducing sugar consumption in China are discussed in light of these findings.","wordCount":123,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Lijun Guan","Shaosheng Jin","Wen Lin"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102233","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a69aa4b4f35df598","title":"On the Circular Bioeconomy and Decoupling: Implications for Sustainable Growth","abstract":"This paper explores the existing confusion around the conceptual definitions and interpretations of the term circular bioeconomy.The co-existence of diametrically opposite interpretations of the concept indicates lack of a serious discussion of its theoretical foundations.Two narratives on circular bioeconomy are explored in depth: (i) the new economic paradigm based on technological progress (the economics of technological promises) that seeks perpetual economic growth; (ii) an entropic (thermodynamic) narrative that reflects on the limits on economic growth imposed by nature.The latter narrative makes a distinction between primary, secondary and tertiary resource flows and helps to identify what can and cannot be re-circulated within the metabolic pattern of social-ecological systems.Adopting the biophysical view, it becomes clear that the industrial revolution represented a linearization of material and energy flows with the goal to overcome the low pace and density of biological transformations.The required level of productivity of production factors in contemporary developed economies (flows per hour of labor and per hectare of land use) is orders of magnitude larger than the pace and density of supply and sink capacity of natural processes.Relying on nature to 'close the loop' will simply slow down the economic process.GHG emissions).This panacea goes under different names, such as green economy, bioeconomy, circular economy (D'Amato et al., 2017) and recently circular bioeconomy.Lazarevic and Valve (Lazarevic and Valve, 2017) observed that \"the emergence and mobilization of expectation that are shaping the EU transition framed as a reassuring discourse and the necessary transition from the current linear economy by its prominent promoters\" (p.60).Generating expectations can be seen as a political activity with the goal of mobilizing resources and 'colonizing' the future (Brown and Michael, 2003).Jasanoff and Kim (Jasanoff and Kim, 2015) proposed the term 'economics of technological promises' for this strategy.However, experience teaches us that hypes are often followed by disappointments (Brown and Michael, 2003;Bakker and Budde, 2012;Konrad, 2006).In the 1950s, we were promised that nuclear energy would produce electricity 'too cheap to meter'.In the 1970's, genetically modified crops were supposed to eradicate hunger from our vocabulary.In the 1980's, the hydrogen economy was going to solve our dependence on fossil energy.Having failed to do so, the same result was promised for the first generation of agro-biofuels in the 90s.Given that the coherency of narratives used to define policies is extremely important to anticipate success or failure, this paper seeks to clarify the existing confusion about the meaning and normative implications associated with the use of the two terms 'circular economy' and 'bioeconomy' and their combination into 'circular bioeconomy'.To this purpose, the paper provides a critical appraisal of the \"conventional","wordCount":427,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Mario Giampietro"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.05.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a6bcaa246d3f8dba","title":"Uncertainty in the Black–Litterman model: Empirical estimation of the equilibrium","abstract":"The Black–Litterman model is a widely used and well established application of the Bayesian framework to asset allocation problems. It is, however, difficult to calibrate, as it requires the specification of abstract uncertainty parameters. We propose a new, more flexible model that allows the empirical estimation of the equilibrium, alleviating the need for parametrization. In an empirical application, we illustrate the sensitivity of the classical Black–Litterman model to the choice of the uncertainty parameter. We then demonstrate that the flexible model successfully exploits information in the cross-section of index constituents’ returns to find an optimal trade-off in calibration of the uncertainty.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Adrian Fuhrer","Thorsten Hock"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a6c4738e28985e45","title":"Optimal sequential contests","abstract":"I study sequential contests where the efforts of earlier players may be disclosed to later players by nature or by design. The model has many applications, including rent seeking, R&D, oligopoly, public goods provision, and tragedy of the commons. I show that information about other players' efforts increases the total effort. Thus, the total effort is maximized with full transparency and minimized with no transparency. I also show that in addition to the first‐mover advantage, there is an earlier‐mover advantage. Finally, I derive the limits for large contests and discuss the limit to perfectly competitive outcomes under different disclosure rules.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Toomas Hinnosaar"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te5536","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a6cf2431db8dcbe1","title":"Quantifying Confidence","abstract":"We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous variation in higher‐order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of optimism and pessimism that can be interpreted as the product of frictional coordination and, unlike the one featured in the news literature, regards the short‐term economic outlook rather than the medium‐ to long‐run prospects. We show that this enrichment provides a parsimonious explanation of salient features of the data; it accounts for a significant fraction of the business‐cycle volatility in estimated models that allow for various competing structural shocks; and it captures a type of fluctuations that have a Keynesian flavor but do not rely on nominal rigidities.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["George-Marios Angeletos","Fabrice Collard","Harris Dellas"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a6e94b33011d09a9","title":"Government investment fiscal multipliers: evidence from Euro-area countries","abstract":"This paper aims to estimate the government investment fiscal multipliers in select European countries for the period 1970–2016. To do this, we combine Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) modeling with the Local Projections (LP) approach. We estimate models by also controlling for fiscal foresight, excluding the postcrisis period and distinguishing between Northern and Southern countries. Our findings suggest that an increase in government investment generates a “Keynesian effect” by engendering positive and permanent effects on the GDP level, even when government expenditure expectations are considered. Fiscal multipliers are close to 1 on impact and increase in the years after the implementation of a discretionary fiscal policy.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Matteo Deleidi","Francesca Iafrate","Enrico Sergio Levrero"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100521000419","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a6ec444f9329a5e6","title":"The persistence of overeducation among recent graduates","abstract":"This paper tests whether overeducation at the beginning of a graduate’s job career is a trap into continuing overeducation later on, or a stepping stone to a job that matches the candidate’s qualifications. We focus on a sample of higher education graduates and shape the decision of accepting an overducated job in a dynamic treatment framework. We distinguish between apparent overeducation (i.e. overeducated only) and genuine overeducation (i.e. both overeducated and skills mismatch) and investigate the causal effect of both types of overeducation of future job outcomes. We find evidence that overeducation at the beginning of a career leads to a greater likelihood of being overeducated later on, with no real differences between apparent or genuine overeducation. Nonetheless, interesting national heterogeneities emerge, with Southern, Eastern and Continental graduates facing systematic trap into overeducation (genuine and apparent), while their UK peers are trapped only if they accept their first job immediately after graduation. For Scandinavian graduates, larger negative effects are found if they are apparently overeducated for their first job.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Elena Claudia Meroni","Esperanza Vera‐Toscano"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.07.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a6ec99cda7fb6a7d","title":"Data brokers competition, synergic datasets, and endogenous information value","abstract":"Data Brokers (DBs) aggregate vast amounts of data and sell them to downstream firms for customer profiling. Firms can decide to purchase data from multiple DBs, to leverage synergies that enhance profiling accuracy. We study how competition between DBs and the synergies between their datasets influence the price and quantity of data sold, and the effects in the downstream market in terms of prices and incentives to purchase from multiple DBs. We find that DBs can coordinate over the quantity and price of data sold to endogenously increase the value of data synergies and induce firms to purchase multiple datasets, even when synergies are relatively weak. As synergies increase, DBs reduce the quantity of data to temper downstream competition and charge higher prices for the data. If the number of firms is endogenous, higher data prices lead to reduced market entry and consumer harm.","wordCount":144,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Laura Abrardi","Carlo Cambini","Flavio Pino"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103146","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a6eecd25d56937a7","title":"Buffering volatility: A study on the limits of Germany's energy revolution","abstract":"Squaring hourly demand and wind-solar production data for Germany and a number of neighbouring countries with the results of the EU's ESTORAGE project, this paper studies the limits of Germany's energy revolution in view of the volatility of wind and solar power. In addition to pumped storage, it considers double-structure buffering, demand management, Norwegian hydro-dam buffering and international diversification via grid expansion. If Germany operated in autarchy and tried to handle the volatility of wind-solar production without using stores while replacing all nuclear and fossil fuel in power production, on average 61%, and at the margin 94%, of wind-solar production would have to be wasted, given the current level of other renewables. To avoid any waste, the wind-solar market share in an autarchic solution must not be expanded to more than 30%. By using Norway's hydro plants the share could be expanded to 36%. If Norway were to build all the pumped storage plants the ESTORAGE study deems feasible, Germany's wind-solar market share could be expanded by another 24 percentage points to about 60%, which corresponds to 48% of the combined German and Norwegian markets. Additionally expanding the market to Switzerland, Austria and Denmark and building the maximal number of pumped stores would increase the combined wind-solar market share for all five countries to nearly 50%.","wordCount":216,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Hans-Werner Sinn"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.05.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a6f0a1841cea2c81","title":"House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice","abstract":"We study the relationship between homebuyers’ beliefs about future house price changes and their mortgage leverage choices. Whether more pessimistic homebuyers choose higher or lower leverage depends on their willingness and ability to reduce the size of their housing market investments. When households primarily maximize the levered return of their property investments, more pessimistic homebuyers reduce their leverage to purchase smaller houses. On the other hand, when considerations such as family size pin down the desired property size, pessimistic homebuyers reduce their financial exposure to the housing market by making smaller downpayments to buy similarly-sized homes. To determine which scenario better describes the data, we investigate the cross-sectional relationship between house price beliefs and mortgage leverage choices in the U.S. housing market. We use plausibly exogenous variation in house price beliefs to show that more pessimistic homebuyers make smaller downpayments and choose higher leverage, in particular in states where default costs are relatively low, as well as during periods when house prices are expected to fall on average. Our results highlight the important role of heterogeneous beliefs in explaining households’ financial decisions.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Michael Bailey","Eduardo Dávila","Theresa Kuchler","Johannes Stroebel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy068","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a6f0f1ac39589fb7","title":"Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change","abstract":"We study climate-related central bank communication using a novel dataset containing 35,487 speeches delivered by 131 central banks from 1986 to 2023. We employ natural language processing techniques to identify and trace the evolution of key climate-related narratives centred around (i) green finance, and (ii) climate-related financial risks. We find that central bank public communication strategies are primarily driven by underlying institutional factors, rather than exposure to climate-related risks. We then study the impact of climate-related communication on financial market dynamics through both a portfolio and a firm-level analysis. We find that equity returns of ‘green’ firms outperform those of ‘dirty’ firms when central banks engage more frequently and intensely with climate-related topics.","wordCount":113,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Emanuele Campiglio","Jérôme Deyris","Davide Romelli","Ginevra Scalisi"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105101","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a6f365d52249c3e0","title":"The long-run effects of congestion tolls, carbon tax, and land use regulations on urban CO2 emissions","abstract":"CO2 emissions caused by urban residents' energy consumption arise from 1) transportation and 2) housing energy consumption. This energy consumption depends on the spatial population distribution of the city. The current study quantitatively examines the effectiveness of i) congestion tolls, ii) carbon tax, and iii) land use regulations on the social welfare and the reduction of urban CO2 emissions. Results show that the congestion tolls can increase the social welfare by about 85% of the increase in the first-best scenario, which is the best result among the three policies, and can reduce CO2 emissions from commuting and housing energy by about 22% and 3%, respectively. These results suggest that congestion tolling, which is primarily the Pigovian tax for congestion, not only internalizes congestion externalities, but also effectively reduces CO2 emissions through downsizing commuting distances and housing sizes. Nevertheless, we show that because any spending, including consumption of goods, generates CO2, how tax revenues are used is important for determining total CO2.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Shohei Domon","Mayu Hirota","Tatsuhito Kono","Shunsuke Managi","Yusuke Matsuki"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103750","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a706ab83cf3b58bc","title":"Entrepreneurship and income inequality","abstract":"Entrepreneurship research highlights entrepreneurship as a simultaneous source of enhanced income mobility for some but a potential source of poverty for others. Research on inequality has furthered new types of models to decompose and problematize various sources of income inequality, but attention to entrepreneurship as an increasingly prevalent occupational choice in these models remains scant. This paper seeks to bridge these two literatures using regression-based income decomposition among entrepreneurs and paid workers distinguishing between self-employed (SE) and incorporated self-employed (ISE) individuals in Sweden. We find that the proportion of self-employed in the workforce increases income dispersion by way of widening the bottom end of the distribution, whereas the proportion of incorporated self-employed contributes to income dispersion at the top end of the distribution. Implications for research are discussed.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Daniel Halvarsson","Martin Korpi","Karl Wennberg"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.11.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a706bac52a29eff4","title":"Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?","abstract":"We study the formation of biased expectations across domains and examine whether they have a unique influence on health and financial behaviors. Combining individual-level longitudinal, retrospective, and end of life data from several European countries for more than a decade, we estimate the time-varying individual level bias in ‘survival expectations' (BSE) and compare it to a similar type of bias in the formation of ‘meteorological expectations' (BME). We exploit the variation across individual's family history (parental age at death) to evaluate the causal effect of BSE on health and financial behaviors, and we compare it to the effect of BME. This allows to investigate whether the BSE effect is due to private information, or another mechanism. We find that BSE increases the likelihood of engaging in less risky health and financial behaviors. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in BSE reduces the average individual probability of smoking by 48% (and increase the probability of holding retirement accounts by 69%). In contrast, BME has little effect on healthy behaviors, and is only associated with a change in some financial behaviors.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Joan Costa‐Font","Cristina Vilaplana‐Prieto"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09382-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a70705f9ec862bdc","title":"Paying for randomization and indecisiveness","abstract":"We examine preference for randomization, and link it to conflicting preference-led indecisiveness in social settings. In an ultimatum game experiment where receivers may face conflicting preferences between material gains and equity, we allow receivers to assign non-zero probabilities to both acceptance and rejection (the randomized choice) in addition to the standard binary choice of acceptance or rejection. We further elicit receivers’ willingness to pay for using the randomized choice instead of the binary choice. We find that a theoretical model incorporating receivers’ conflicting preferences explains the experimental results well: most receivers randomized actively between acceptance and rejection, and many were willing to pay for randomization. Our results suggest that allowing people to randomize when making choices with conflicting preferences may improve individual welfare.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Qiyan Ong","Jianying Qiu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09407-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a70807022f0f86bc","title":"Subsistence production, markets, and dietary diversity in the Kenyan small farm sector","abstract":"Undernutrition and low dietary quality remain widespread problems in poor population segments, especially among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Hence, the question how smallholder systems can be made more nutrition-sensitive is of particular relevance for research and policy. Recent studies analyzed whether increasing farm production diversity may help to improve nutrition. Most existing studies found a positive but small effect on dietary diversity on average. The underlying mechanisms were not examined in detail. This article tests the hypothesis that the effect of farm diversity on nutrition is small because production diversity is positively associated with dietary diversity obtained from subsistence production but negatively associated with dietary diversity obtained from the market. This hypothesis is confirmed with data from Kenya, using different indicators of production diversity and dietary diversity scores at household and individual levels. The results underline the important role of markets for smallholder diets and nutrition. Hence, strengthening markets and improving market access should be a key strategy to make smallholder systems more nutrition-sensitive.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Davis Muthini","Jonathan Makau Nzuma","Matin Qaim"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101956","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a716bf614324af3b","title":"Learning by matching","abstract":"This paper studies a stability notion and matching processes in the job market with incomplete information on the workers' side. Each worker is associated with a type, and each firm cares about the type of her employee under a match. Moreover, firms' information structure is described by partitions over possible worker type profiles. With this firm‐specific information, we propose a stability notion which, in addition to requiring individual rationality and no blocking pairs, captures the idea that the absence of rematching conveys no further information. When an allocation is not stable under the status quo information structure, a new pair of an allocation and an information structure will be derived. We show that starting from an arbitrary allocation and an arbitrary information structure, the process of allowing randomly chosen blocking pairs to rematch, accompanied by information updating, will converge with probability one to an allocation that is stable under the updated information structure. Our results are robust with respect to various alternative learning patterns.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Yi‐Chun Chen","Gaoji Hu"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3088","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a71d2375b15d0a06","title":"Referral hiring and wage formation in a market with adverse selection","abstract":"The widespread use of employee referrals raises questions regarding how they affect labor market outcomes. Does referral hiring lead to a more efficient allocation of workers compared to when hiring is possible only on a competitive market? To utilize the social links of their employees, are employers willing to pay a wage premium? We develop a model and provide results from a laboratory experiment to address these questions. We find that employers often hire via referrals, which in turn mitigates adverse selection and elevates wages. Importantly, employers anticipate the future value of hiring high-productivity employees—which consists of gaining access to valuable social links—and are thus willing to take the risk of offering wage premiums when hiring on the competitive market. We also find that employers' risk aversion and the dynamic nature of the hiring process can help account for the inefficiency remaining in the labor market.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Aurélie Dariel","Arno Riedl","Simon Siegenthaler"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.08.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a7317a42ddf7a040","title":"How does digital finance affect regional innovation capacity? A spatial econometric analysis","abstract":"Digital finance is a new model of financial services that impacts social development; however, there is a lack of adequate theoretical explanation of how digital finance affects regional innovation. Using the panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of digital finance on regional innovation Capacity. We find that digital finance can enhance regional capacity. Further analysis indicates that the positive impact of digital finance on regional innovation capacity is stronger for provinces with a higher tertiary sector share of total GDP and a lower degree of market development. Digital finance still has a significant effect on regional innovation capacity in the case of introducing the spatial role of innovation capacity of neighboring provinces. These findings have implications for further exploring the use of digital finance to enhance regional innovation capacity in a differentiated market or geographical context.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Hui Peng","Hui Zhao","Desheng Liu","Ye Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106250","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a747ba508a5fddb0","title":"Immigration and the reallocation of work health risks","abstract":"This paper studies the effects of immigration on the allocation of occupational physical burden and work injury risks. Using data for England and Wales from the Labour Force Survey (2003–2013), we find that, on average, immigration leads to a reallocation of UK-born workers towards jobs characterised by lower physical burden and injury risk. The results also show important differences across skill groups. Immigration reduces the average physical burden of UK-born workers with medium levels of education, but has no significant effect on those with low levels. We also find that that immigration led to an improvement self-reported measures of native workers’ health. These findings, together with the evidence that immigrants report lower injury rates than natives, suggest that the reallocation of tasks could reduce overall health care costs and the human and financial costs typically associated with workplace injuries.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Osea Giuntella","Fabrizio Mazzonna","Catia Nicodemo","Carlos Vargas‐Silva"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0710-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a767b1482068242e","title":"Artificial intelligence and competition policy","abstract":"This paper examines competition policy implications of the rapidly expanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector. We analyze the vertical AI technology stack and data feedback loops to address three key questions: the potential for market concentration in core AI services, AI's likely impact on existing market structures, and emerging competition policy challenges. We identify key risks to competition in the AI sector, ways in which AI may disrupt some existing platforms, how AI could lead to new types of gatekeepers, and some novel competition policy concerns raised by AI.","wordCount":88,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Andrei Hagiu","Julian Wright"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103134","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a772684c6c96835d","title":"Inheritance taxation in Sweden, 1885–2004: the role of ideology, family firms, and tax avoidance","abstract":"This article studies the evolution of Swedish inheritance taxation since the late nineteenth century to its abolition in 2004. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, the annual effective inheritance tax rates are computed for different sizes of bequests and asset types, accounting for all relevant exemptions, deductions, and valuation discounts. Second, an attempt is made to explain changes in inheritance taxation over time. Ideology appears to be the main driver of the sharp tax increases of the 1930s to the 1960s. Wartime economies with higher pressures on the people induced politicians to raise inheritance taxes on the wealthy, primarily during the First World War. Increased opportunities for tax planning for the wealthy are also documented, most notably a series of tax cuts on inherited family firms in the 1970s. This rise in avoidance opportunities for the rich, while middle‐class heirs faced growing inheritance tax rates, undermined the legitimacy of the tax and led to its repeal.","wordCount":158,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Magnus Henrekson","Daniel Waldenström"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12280","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a7829bfc6c913e0a","title":"Good news and bad news are still news: experimental evidence on belief updating","abstract":"Bayesian updating remains the benchmark for dynamic modeling under uncertainty within economics. Recent theory and evidence suggest individuals may process information asymmetrically when it relates to personal characteristics or future life outcomes, with good news receiving more weight than bad news. I examine information processing across a broad set of contexts: (1) ego relevant, (2) financially relevant, and (3) non value relevant. In the first two cases, information about outcomes is valenced, containing either good or bad news. In the third case, information is value neutral. In contrast to a number of previous studies I do not find differences in belief updating across valenced and value neutral settings. Updating across all contexts is asymmetric and conservative: the former is influenced by sequences of signals received, a new variation of confirmation bias, while the latter is driven by non-updates. Despite this, posteriors are well approximated by those calculated using Bayes’ rule. Most importantly these patterns are present across all contexts, cautioning against the interpretation of asymmetric updating or other deviations from Bayes’ rule as being motivated by psychological biases.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Alexander Coutts"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a785037dc5317f5a","title":"Do clean and dirty cryptocurrencies connect with financial assets differently? The role of economic policy uncertainty","abstract":"This paper analyses time-varying networks of clean and dirty cryptocurrencies with green and traditional assets through a dynamic connectedness approach established by the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The underlying asymmetry of the dynamic pairwise connectedness when facing uncertainty shocks is further studied through a non-parametric quantile causality method. Our results demonstrate a limited information transmission of volatility from cryptocurrencies to both traditional and green assets, while the connection of clean cryptocurrencies (CI) with the financial system is even weaker compared to that of dirty cryptocurrencies (DI), especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, connection within the financial system is found to be relatively closer. Moreover, causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and cryptocurrency-financial asset linkages are generally enhanced after the pandemic onset, while such the causality of uncertainty with DI related asset linkages tends to be even stronger. Most of the above causalities are shown to be negligible during market depression, further implying the sheltering role of the market linkages against uncertainty.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Kun Duan","Yanqi Zhao","Andrew Urquhart","Yingying Huang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107079","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a791d66c1171049a","title":"Speed under sail during the early industrial revolution (c. 1750–1830)","abstract":"This article measures technological progress in oceanic shipping directly by using a large database of daily log entries from British, Dutch, and Spanish ships to estimate daily sailing speed in different wind conditions from 1750 to 1850. Against the consensus among economic (but not maritime) historians that the technology of sailing ships was fairly static during this time, we find that average sailing speeds of British East India Company and Navy ships in moderate to strong winds rose considerably after the 1770s. Driving this progress was the introduction of coppering in the 1780s, but subsequent rises are probably due to a continuous evolution of sails and rigging, and improved hulls that allowed a greater area of sail to be set safely in a given wind. By contrast, the speeds of Dutch and Spanish vessels were stagnant. Using separate data on the crossing times of Atlantic mail packets, we find gradual progress from the 1750s, followed by marked improvements when American packets appeared in the 1820s.","wordCount":165,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Morgan Kelly","Cormac Ó Gráda"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12696","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a792f6c9d4f37dfa","title":"Peer Effects in Stock Market Participation: Evidence from Immigration","abstract":"This paper studies how peers' financial behavior affects individuals' own investment choices. To identify the peer effect, we exploit the composition of the Luxembourg population and use the differences in stock market participation across various immigrant groups to study the effect on stock market participation of natives. We find that stock market participation of immigrant peers has a sizable effect on that of natives and that s ocial learning is one of the channels through which this peer effect occurs. However, social learning alone does not account for the entire effect. S ocial utility might, therefore, also play an important role in peer effect transmission.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Anastasia Girshina","Thomas Y. Mathä","Michael Ziegelmeyer"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12674","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a79a76d7067b088f","title":"Banks Response to Higher Capital Requirements: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment","abstract":"We study the impact of higher capital requirements on banks’ balance sheets and their transmission to the real economy. The 2011 EBA capital exercise is an almost ideal quasi-natural experiment to identify this impact with a difference-in-differences matching estimator. We find that treated banks increase their capital ratios by reducing their risk-weighted assets, not by raising their levels of equity, consistent with debt overhang. Banks reduce lending to corporate and retail customers, resulting in lower asset, investment, and sales growth for firms obtaining a larger share of their bank credit from the treated banks.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Reint Gropp","Thomas C. Mosk","Steven Ongena","Carlo Wix"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy052","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a79b275096f62204","title":"Connectedness of energy markets around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"This paper studies the connectedness among energy equity indices of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries around the world. For each country, we construct time-varying measures of how much shocks this country transmits to other countries and how much shocks this country receives from other countries. We analyze the network of countries and find that, on average, oil-exporting countries are mainly transmitting shocks, and oil-importing countries are mainly receiving shocks. Furthermore, we use panel data regressions to evaluate whether the connectedness among countries is influenced by economic sentiment, uncertainty, and the global COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the connectedness among countries increases significantly in periods of uncertainty, low economic sentiment, and COVID-19 problems. This implies that diversification benefits across countries are severely reduced exactly during crises, that is, during the times when diversification benefits are most important.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Erdinç Akyıldırım","Oğuzhan Çepni","Péter Molnár","Gazi Salah Uddin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105900","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a79be6bf6fd2316b","title":"Life Cycle Wage Growth across Countries","abstract":"This paper documents how life cycle wage growth varies across countries. We harmonize repeated cross-sectional surveys from a set of countries of all income levels and then measure how wages rise with potential experience. Our main finding is that experience-wage profiles are on average twice as steep in rich countries as in poor countries. In addition, more educated workers have steeper profiles than the less educated; this accounts for around one-third of cross-country differences in aggregate profiles. Our findings are consistent with theories in which workers in poor countries accumulate less human capital or face greater search frictions over the life cycle.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["David Lagakos","Benjamin Moll","Tommaso Porzio","Nancy Qian","Todd Schoellman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696225","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a79e8eba037a82d4","title":"The Persistent Power of Behavioral Change: Long-Run Impacts of Temporary Savings Subsidies for the Poor","abstract":"I use a field experiment in rural Kenya to study how temporary incentives to save impact long-run economic outcomes. Study participants randomly selected to receive large temporary interest rates on an individual bank account had significantly more income and assets 2.5–3.5 years after the interest rates expired. These changes are much larger than the short-run impacts on experimental bank account use and almost entirely driven by growth in entrepreneurship. In contrast, interest rates on joint accounts and modest cash payments did not significantly impact long-run economic outcomes.","wordCount":87,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Simone Schaner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170453","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a7a0ed0b3481d9da","title":"High temperature, power rationing, and firm performance","abstract":"This paper develops a theoretical framework and provides causal evidence explaining the rationality of government-imposed power rationing strategies during high-temperature periods in electricity systems lacking market mechanisms and price signals. By combining comprehensive panel data on Chinese firms with high-resolution meteorological data, we document robust evidence that high temperatures significantly reduce both electricity usage and operational performance among firms. We then construct supply shocks based on precipitation anomalies weighted by the inter-provincial hydropower dependence to identify power rationing. These analyses demonstrate the persistent prevalence of firm-level power rationing across China in recent years. Furthermore, we show that while redirecting electricity from industrial to residential sectors during heat-induced shortages reduces firm performance, this represents a welfare-maximizing outcome from a social planner's perspective. Our findings reveal how climate change intensifies inter-sectoral electricity competition, with market inefficiencies playing a critical role in explaining China's rationing patterns.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Xinya Hao","Yongying Huang","Lin Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103541","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a7a47060e43df67a","title":"Climate change impacts on the within-country income distributions","abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between climate change and income inequality, recognizing that the economic impacts of climate change are not uniform across different levels of income within and across countries. Using methods from the existing literature on climate and economic growth, we analyze the economic impact of rising temperatures by within-country income decile. Our findings suggest that climate change disproportionately affects the poorer segments of the population within countries, even after accounting for a country’s ability to adapt to climate impacts, while richer households suffer lower damages. In the reference scenario without additional climate action (3.6°C warming), we estimate that climate impacts could lead to an increase in the Gini index by up to six percentage points, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa. We project impacts to 2100 through the RICE50+ model and estimate the income elasticity of impacts within countries. Our estimates indicate that climate change damages are regressive, with an income elasticity of damages of 0.6 under our preferred specification. On the other hand, climate benefits are approximately distribution-neutral or slightly progressive.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Martino Gilli","Matteo Calcaterra","Johannes Emmerling","Francesco Granella"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103012","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a7aece5048627bc3","title":"Reactions to (the absence of) control and workplace arrangements: experimental evidence from the internet and the laboratory","abstract":"This paper reports an experiment designed to assess the influence of workplace arrangements on the reactions to (the absence of) control. We compare behavior in an Internet and a laboratory principal-agent game where the principal can control the agent by implementing a minimum effort requirement. Then the agent chooses an effort costly to her but beneficial to the principal. Our design captures meaningful differences between working from home and working at the office arrangements. Online subjects enjoy greater anonymity than lab subjects, they interact in a less constrained environment than the laboratory, and there is a larger physically-oriented social distance between them. Control is significantly more effective online than in the laboratory. Positive reactions to the principal's choice not to control are observed in both treatments, but they are significantly weaker online than in the laboratory. Principals often choose the highest control level, which maximizes their earnings.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Katrin Schmelz","Anthony Ziegelmeyer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09666-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a7bbdbd5fb7cf6b1","title":"An empirical study of observational learning","abstract":"This article provides an empirical examination of observational learning. Using data from an online market for music, I find that observational learning benefits consumers, producers of high‐quality music, and the online platform. I also study the role of pricing as a friction to the learning process by comparing outcomes under demand‐based pricing to counterfactual pricing schemes. I find that employing a fixed price (the industry standard) can hamper learning by reducing the incentive to experiment, resulting in less consumer surplus, but more expected revenue for the platform.","wordCount":87,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Peter Newberry"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12132","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a7be9f33530e5879","title":"Shelter‐in‐place orders and public health: Evidence from california during the covid‐19 pandemic","abstract":"A shelter‐in‐place order (SIPO) is one of the most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions designed to curb the spread of COVID‐19. On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued the first statewide SIPO in the United States. The order closed non‐essential businesses and required residents to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives. This study is the first in the economics literature to estimate the effect of a statewide SIPO on public health. Using daily state‐level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California's statewide SIPO reduced COVID‐19 cases by 160.9 to 194.7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order. We further find that California's SIPO led to as many as 1,566 fewer COVID‐19 deaths during this period. Back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations suggest that there were about 649 to 703 job losses per life saved, and about 14 to16 job losses per case averted during this post‐treatment period.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Andrew Friedson","Drew McNichols","Joseph J. Sabia","Dhaval Dave"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22267","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a7cfc9e0600746cf","title":"The Incidence of Local Labor Demand Shocks","abstract":"Low-skill workers are comparatively immobile. This paper estimates the role of housing prices and social transfers in accounting for this fact using a spatial equilibrium model. Reduced-form estimates using US census data show that positive local labor demand shocks increase population more than negative shocks reduce population, that this asymmetry is larger for low-skill workers, and that such an asymmetry is absent for average wages, housing values, and rental prices. Generalized method of moments estimates reveal that the comparative immobility of low-skill workers is due not to higher mobility costs but to a lower incidence of adverse labor demand shocks.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Matthew Notowidigdo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706048","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a7d4966df4505c4f","title":"Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk","abstract":"This paper proposes a new model for capturing discontinuities in the underlying financial environment that can lead to abrupt falls, but not necessarily sustained monotonic falls, in asset prices. This notion of price dynamics is consistent with existing understanding of market crashes, which allows for a mix of market responses that are not universally negative. The model may be interpreted as a martingale composed with a randomized drift process that is designed to capture various asymmetric drivers of market sentiment. In particular, the model is capable of generating realistic patterns of price meltdowns and bond yield inflations that constitute major market reversals while not necessarily being always monotonic in form. The recursive and moving window methods developed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b; PSY), which were designed to detect exuberance in financial and economic data, are shown to have detective capacity for such meltdowns and expansions. This characteristic of the PSY tests has been noted in earlier empirical studies by the present authors and other researchers but no analytic reasoning has yet been given to explain why methods intended to capture the expansionary phase of a bubble may also detect abrupt and broadly sustained collapses. The model and asymptotic theory developed in the present paper together explain this property of the PSY procedures. The methods are applied to analyse S&P 500 stock prices and sovereign risk in European Union countries over 2001–16 using government bond yields and credit default swap (CDS) premia. A pseudo real‐time empirical analysis of these data shows the effectiveness of the monitoring strategy in capturing key events and turning points in market risk assessment.","wordCount":268,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Peter C.B. Phillips","Shuping Shi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12307","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a7e602a3cf84c8be","title":"The real effects of financial technology: Marketplace lending and personal bankruptcy","abstract":"We examine how financial technology affects households in terms of personal bankruptcy by leveraging exogenous variation in marketplace credit supply to Connecticut and New York residents. We document a persistent rise in bankruptcies in the affected states following sharp decreases in marketplace lending, particularly among low-income households and in areas where marketplace loans for financing medical bills are severely rationed. Borrowers’ indebtedness or local economic conditions do not explain the results. The supply of other consumer credit by banks and finance companies remains unaffected, suggesting that the observed increase in bankruptcies arises principally from reversing access to marketplace credit.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Piotr Danisewicz","Ilaf Elard"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106986","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a80986d11edac296","title":"Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age–Leave Gradient: On the Evolution of UK Support for the European Union","abstract":"In the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum, young voters were more likely than their elders to support remaining in the European Union. Using half a century of data and new techniques, we find that recent cohorts tend to be more pro‐European than their predecessors, but that voters also become more sceptical towards Europe as they age. Much of the pro‐Europeanism of recent cohorts is associated with greater years of education. We also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with age or cohort effects. These time effects are plausibly associated with, inter alia , macroeconomic fluctuations, financial conditions and geopolitical circumstances, but they also could have other sources. They dominate the impact of the estimated age and cohort effects and will crucially determine future UK support for membership in the European Union.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Barry Eichengreen","Rebecca Mari","Gregory Thwaites"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12388","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a80e75ed3d1a9c04","title":"Anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines reduces willingness to socially distance","abstract":"We investigate how the anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines affects voluntary social distancing. In a large-scale preregistered survey experiment with a representative sample, we study whether providing information about the safety, effectiveness, and availability of COVID-19 vaccines affects the willingness to comply with public health guidelines. We find that vaccine information reduces peoples' voluntary social distancing, adherence to hygiene guidelines, and their willingness to stay at home. Getting positive information on COVID-19 vaccines induces people to believe in a swifter return to normal life. The results indicate an important behavioral drawback of successful vaccine development: An increased focus on vaccines can lower compliance with public health guidelines and accelerate the spread of infectious disease. The results imply that, as vaccinations roll out and the end of a pandemic feels closer, policies aimed at increasing social distancing will be less effective, and stricter policies might be required.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Ola Andersson","Pol Campos‐Mercade","Armando N. Meier","Erik Wengström"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102530","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a819a33c182ad611","title":"Long Live Keju! The Persistent Effects of China’s Civil Examination System","abstract":"China's civil examination system (keju), an incredibly long-lived institution, has a persistent impact on human capital outcomes today. Using the variation in the density of jinshi—the highest qualification—across 278 Chinese prefectures in the Ming-Qing period (c. 1368–1905) to proxy for this effect, we find that a doubling of jinshi per 10,000 population leads to an 8.5% increase in years of schooling in 2010. The persistent effect of keju can be attributed to a multitude of channels including cultural transmission, educational infrastructure, social capital and, to a lesser extent, political elites.","wordCount":90,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Ting Chen","James Kai‐sing Kung","Chicheng Ma"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa043","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a81b6f8e490afabf","title":"Long-run consequences of informal elderly care and implications of public long-term care insurance","abstract":"We estimate a dynamic structural model of labor supply, retirement, and informal caregiving to study short and long-term costs of informal caregiving in Germany. Incorporating labor market frictions and the German tax and benefit system, we find that in the absence of Germany's public long-term insurance scheme, informal elderly care has adverse and persistent effects on labor market outcomes and, thus, negatively affects lifetime earnings and future pension benefits. These consequences of caregiving are heterogeneous and depend on age, previous earnings, and institutional regulations. Policy simulations suggest that while public long-term care insurance policies are fiscally costly and induce negative labor market effects, they can largely offset the personal costs of caregiving and increase welfare, especially for low-income individuals.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Thorben Korfhage","Björn Fischer-Weckemann"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102884","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a81d28c19773765e","title":"Beyond the last term: Analyzing politicians’ responsiveness in a no-term-limit context","abstract":"MPs retiring for age or health reasons maintain consistent citizen engagement. We investigate the willingness of politicians in the German Bundestag to interact with voters, drawing on data capturing direct interchanges between citizens and their elected representatives to measure their responsiveness. In a setting without term limits, we examine whether electoral incentives influence politicians’ engagement with citizens. Our theoretical model predicts, and empirical results confirm, that politicians who are not seeking reelection become less responsive to voters, especially as election day approaches. This decline is attributed to a behavioral response resulting from a decrease in intra-party standing, rather than to a change in motivation or personal ideological convictions. Politicians retiring due to age or health reasons maintain consistent levels of interaction with voters, in contrast to those leaving due to pressure within their party or due to career changes, who exhibit decreased engagement with voters. Our findings offer novel insights into the role of incentives and constraints for political behavior in countries without mandatory term limits.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Marco Frank","Nicola Maaser","David Stadelmann"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a826056393f48403","title":"Smile, Dictator, You're on Camera","abstract":"We investigate the degree to which people in a shopping mall express other-regarding behavior in the dictator game. Whereas many studies have attempted to increase the social distance between the dictator and experimenter and between the dictator and recipient, we attempt to minimize that social distance between random strangers by video recording the decisions, with the permission of the dictators, to display their image on the Internet. Offers made by dictators are high, relative to other experiments, and a nontrivial number give the entire experimental windfall away. However, a nontrivial number of people keep everything as well.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Joy Buchanan","Matthew K. McMahon","Matthew T. Simpson","Bart J. Wilson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12214","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a83a861726c0d51c","title":"JUE Insight: Zoning and property taxation revisited—Was Hamilton right?","abstract":"In rare theoretical treatments of ideas developed by Hamilton (1975, 1976) almost fifty wears ago, recent papers by Barseghyan and Coate (2016) and Calabrese et al. (2007) develop dynamic models to analyze zoning and property taxation in a system of communities. Their analyses led to negative conclusions, contradicting Hamilton’s view, by showing that efficient zoning does not emerge in equilibrium. The purpose of this note is to show that a different, affirmative conclusion can be reached in a simpler, highly stylized model that formalizes Hamilton’s idea.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Jan K. Brueckner"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103393","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a83e9f63731870bd","title":"The health impacts of two policies regulating SO2 air pollution: Evidence from China","abstract":"In developing countries widespread air pollution poses a major threat to public health calling for effective environmental regulation. This paper adds to the limited literature on the health impact of different environmental regulations. Using data from eight waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1993–2015), we employ a difference-in-differences model to investigate the health impact of two policies combatting SO2 air pollution: the command-and-control environmental regulation represented by the Two Control Zones (TCZ) and the market-oriented environmental regulation represented by the SO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The main findings are that the TCZ policy resulted in a 39% reduction in the 4-week prevalence of air pollution-related diseases through channels such as reducing industrial SO2 emissions and industrial fumes emissions, and increasing individuals' amounts of physical exercise. In contrast, the ETS had no positive health effects, likely due to imperfect market mechanisms and environmental policy uncertainties. The health impact of the TCZ was most pronounced for respiratory illnesses, and was increasing over the period during which the policy was implemented. The positive health impact is stronger for outdoor, less educated, and lower income workers. Residents in Eastern regions and urban areas (especially the rural hukou holders living there) benefitted more from the environmental regulation.","wordCount":204,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yuze Wang","Tor Eriksson","Nengsheng Luo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101937","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a846f0c28a1b1eb5","title":"Delay in childbearing and the evolution of fertility rates","abstract":"We present a growth model whose novelty is to explicitly account for the direct, preference-related factors that reinforce the delay in the timing of childbearing. Given the strength of these factors, the model generates the empirically observed dynamics in completed cohort fertility. Furthermore, the quantitative analysis of our results verifies that our model provides a good fit for actual data of the rebound of the completed cohort fertility rates in Nordic countries. The fact that these countries are widely considered as the most progressive ones, in terms of their cultural norms and in terms of their family-oriented policies, offers credence to the hypothesis that our model advances. More generally, our framework provides a platform for research that can uncover empirically relevant, but yet unexplored, mechanisms in the joint analysis of demographic change and economic growth.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos","Dimitrios Varvarigos"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00931-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a8591ae8041a2de3","title":"Risk and Temptation: A Meta‐study on Prisoner's Dilemma Games","abstract":"This article reports the results of a meta‐study of 96 prisoner's dilemma studies comprising more than 3,500 participants. I disentangle the role of ‘risk’ (to co‐operate unilaterally) and ‘temptation’ (to defect against a co‐operator) and find that: (i) an index of risk best explains the variation in co‐operation rates across one‐shot games, while (ii) an index of temptation best explains the variation in finitely repeated games. Risk and temptation indices also affect gender comparisons. Women are more co‐operative than the average man if risk is low and less co‐operative if risk is high. There are no gender differences on average.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Friederike Mengel"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12548","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a85c1aad47953341","title":"Which Alpha?","abstract":"A common approach to comparing asset pricing models involves a competition in pricing test-asset returns. In contrast, we show that for models with traded factors, when the comparison is framed appropriately in terms of success in pricing both the test-asset and factor returns, the extent to which each model is able to price the factors in the other model is what matters for model comparison. Test assets are irrelevant based on several prominent criteria. For models with nontraded factors, test assets are relevant for model comparison insofar as they are needed to identify factor-mimicking portfolio returns.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Francisco Barillas","Jay Shanken"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw101","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a861ebe9de980443","title":"Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: A common factor analysis","abstract":"Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a potential driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the distinct dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy, we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors that account for the common dynamics in this dataset. These factors are interpreted as macroeconomic uncertainty. The first factor captures business cycle uncertainty, while the second factor represents oil and commodity price uncertainty. While both types of uncertainty generate a decline in output, time‐varying oil and commodity price uncertainty is more important for fluctuations in real activity. However, nonlinearities seem to amplify the effect of business cycle uncertainty during the global financial crisis.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Steffen Henzel","Malte Rengel"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12422","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a8662d6db259d56d","title":"Rigid production networks","abstract":"It increases the inflationary effect of positive aggregate demand shocks. This paper studies a production network model with quantity rigidities and informational frictions, where (i) firms may be restricted in how effectively they can adjust (some or all of) their intermediate input quantities in response to changes in the economic environment and (ii) they need to choose their quantities under incomplete information about the realizations of shocks. Our characterization results show that these two frictions lead to a reduction in aggregate output, as firms may find it optimal to rely more heavily on less volatile suppliers, even if it comes at the cost of forgoing more efficient ones. We also find that the interaction between informational frictions and quantity rigidities dampens the impact of productivity and aggregate demand shocks on aggregate output, while increasing the inflationary effects of positive shocks to nominal aggregate demand. The magnitudes of these effects depend on the distribution of the two frictions over the production network.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Thomas Pellet","Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a8680f490e5aaf23","title":"Horizontal Mergers and Supplier Power","abstract":"Supplier market power—such as the ability of branded goods suppliers to dictate terms to retailers—is an important feature of many markets. We show that supplier power can counteract the effects of downstream mergers on consumer prices where there are two-part contracts. This is because greater market power allows suppliers to set contracts that internalise partially the impact of the merger on downstream prices. Post-merger, the supplier reduces the per-unit price at which it supplies the merged downstream firms, with the aim of maintaining total industry profitability—and then recoups the profits via a larger fixed fee. We modify the standard upward pricing pressure (UPP) formula to account for the supplier’s response to a horizontal merger in the downstream market, while preserving much of the simplicity of the standard approach.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Joe Perkins","Shiva Shekhar"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09947-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a869b943fbb9f393","title":"A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk","abstract":"Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from “normal” states to systemic risk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilities of arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model can be used to conduct a macroeconomic “stress test” linking a stress scenario to the probability of systemic risk states.","wordCount":152,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Zhiguo He","Arvind Krishnamurthy"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180011","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a876d86b78881931","title":"Heterogeneous beliefs and the Phillips curve","abstract":"We demonstrate the statistical and economic relevance of heterogeneous expectations for inflation dynamics, and provide a new narrative of inflation developments. Heterogeneous beliefs modify the New Keynesian Phillips curve by introducing a term in the cross-section distribution of expectations. To take that model to the data, we develop a novel functional data approach to estimation and inference that accounts for variation in distributions of expectations. We find that this variation may be summarized using a handful of functional factors, and demonstrate their statistical and economic relevance for inflation dynamics. Our results are among the first to highlight the potential benefits to be gained in empirical work from a rigorous treatment of diverse beliefs in the study of macroeconomic outcomes.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Roland Meeks","Francesca Monti"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.06.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a87f8b5875c9578d","title":"Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine","abstract":"The effects of automation on economic growth, education, and inequality are analyzed using an R&D-driven growth model with endogenous education in which high-skilled workers are complements to machines and low-skilled workers are substitutes for machines. The model predicts that automation leads to an increasing share of college graduates, increasing income and wealth inequality, and a declining labor share. We show that standard policy suggestions for the age of automation can trigger unintended side effects on inequality, growth, and welfare, irrespective of whether they are financed by progressive wage taxation or by a robot tax.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Klaus Prettner","Holger Strulik"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.10.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a886845c6858d3e0","title":"Knowledge spillovers and output per worker: An industry‐level analysis for oecd countries","abstract":"This study analyzes the impact of knowledge spillovers on output per worker at the industry level using a primal production function approach. The article makes three different contributions to the international spillovers literature: (1) it identifies trade‐related spillovers under alternative assumptions regarding the information transferred through imports; (2) it explores the importance of horizontal and vertical foreign direct investment (FDI) in knowledge spillovers; and (3) it looks at how institutional factors determine the impact of FDI‐related spillovers on productivity. The main findings of the study are: (1) international knowledge spillover is an important driver of industry output per worker, and the magnitude of this spillover effect varies with alternative assumptions about the information content embodied in imports, while high technology industries benefit significantly more from import‐related knowledge spillovers; and (2) the gains from FDI spillovers are primarily horizontal, but when institutional factors are considered, countries with stronger protection of intellectual property rights and a high “ease of doing business” tend to experience a substantial increase in the effectiveness of both horizontal and vertical FDI‐related spillovers.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Ioannis Bournakis","Dimitris Christopoulos","Sushanta Mallick"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12458","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a896f4adfb83cee1","title":"Boosting: Why you can use the hp filter","abstract":"We propose a procedure of iterating the HP filter to produce a smarter smoothing device, called the boosted HP (bHP) filter, based on L 2 ‐boosting in machine learning. Limit theory shows that the bHP filter asymptotically recovers trend mechanisms that involve integrated processes, deterministic drifts, and structural breaks, covering the most common trends that appear in current modeling methodology. A stopping criterion automates the algorithm, giving a data‐determined method for data‐rich environments. The methodology is illustrated in simulations and with three real data examples that highlight the differences between simple HP filtering, the bHP filter, and an alternative autoregressive approach.","wordCount":101,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Peter C.B. Phillips","Zhentao Shi"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12495","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a8a9d1fa044a5b77","title":"Does International Commercial Arbitration Promote Foreign Direct Investment?","abstract":"This paper explores the role that international commercial arbitration plays in facilitating foreign direct investment (FDI). International commercial arbitration is a system of private commercial law that enables firms to more effectively enforce contracts by allowing them to avoid inefficiencies that arise from domestic courts. As a result, access to international arbitration should foster FDI. To explain the effect of international arbitration on FDI, this paper develops a model to explain the use and effect of resolving international disputes through arbitration. The predictions of the model are tested empirically in a gravity framework. The results of this analysis suggest that access to arbitration leads to an increase in FDI flows. This increase largely occurs through a change in the volume of investment, with a much smaller effect on the number of investment projects. The effect of arbitration is greater for countries with weaker institutions and for larger projects.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Andrew Christopher Myburgh","Jordi Paniagua"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689188","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a8acac30cf21f0e9","title":"Salience theory and cryptocurrency returns","abstract":"The salience theory of choice under risk shows that investor behavior drives cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns. Investors place too much weight on salient payouts, causing overvaluation of cryptocurrencies with upward salience returns and undervaluation of those with downward salience returns, leading to negative expected returns for the former and positive expected returns for the latter. The salience effect in the cryptocurrency market is more pronounced than in equity markets, making it a significant risk factor for explaining other cross-sectional returns in the cryptocurrency market. Unlike other documented return predictors, the salience theory uniquely contributes to understanding the cryptocurrency market.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Charlie X. Cai","Ran Zhao"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107052","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a8c25f3e511e51b5","title":"Understanding ethnic hiring discrimination: A contextual analysis of experimental evidence","abstract":"Previous research has demonstrated that context matters in understanding unequal treatment in hiring—for example, some studies have illustrated that hiring discrimination is low in large organisations or high in public-facing occupations. Following a review of the recent literature on ethnic hiring discrimination, we identified fourteen plausible moderators (i.e. discrimination correlates) from which we derived an equal number of hypotheses related to taste-based and statistical discrimination theories. We empirically tested these hypotheses through a moderation analysis of data from a correspondence experiment supplemented with occupation, organisation, and sector characteristics. Our empirical approach allowed us to simultaneously evaluate and control the interaction effects of multiple contextual factors with ethnic hiring discrimination. Overall, we find that minority (non-Flemish) candidates receive significantly fewer positive responses to their job applications than majority (Flemish) candidates. In particular, non-Flemish candidates experience significantly less discrimination when applying to not-for-profit organisations or organisations with a large workforce. We also find partial empirical support for the hypotheses that hiring discrimination is high in occupations requiring much interaction between colleagues and in occupations where labour market tightness is low. Future research avenues include evaluating the rationale behind the discrimination correlates mentioned above and testing the replicability of this study's findings across different institutional contexts, labour markets, and grounds for discrimination.","wordCount":209,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Louis Lippens","Axana Dalle","Fanny D’hondt","Pieter‐Paul Verhaeghe","Stijn Baert"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102453","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-a8cde24b001c87f6","title":"On the design of a European Unemployment Insurance System","abstract":"We study the welfare effects of both existing and counter-factual European unemployment insurance (UI) policies using a rich multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model with labour market frictions. The model successfully replicates several salient features of European labour markets, in particular the cross-country differences in the flows between employment, unemployment and inactivity, as a result of labour market and UI policy differences across euro area countries. We find that mechanisms like the recently introduced instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency (SURE), which allows national governments to borrow at low interest rates to cover expenditures on unemployment risk, yield sizeable welfare gains. Furthermore, we find that, in spite of the calibrated heterogeneity across euro area countries, there is a common direction in which they can improve their UI policies; in particular, a harmonized benefit system that features a one-time payment of around three quarters of income upon separation is welfare improving in all euro area countries relative to the status quo.","wordCount":164,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Árpád Ábrahám","João Brogueira de Sousa","Ramón Marimon","Lukas Mayr"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104469","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a8e1b790dfc76b9c","title":"Foreign expansion, competition and bank risk","abstract":"Using a novel dataset on the 15 European banks classified as G-SIBs from 2005 to 2014, we find that the impact of foreign expansion on risk is always negative and significant for most individual and systemic risk metrics. In the case of individual metrics, we also find that foreign expansion affects risk through a competition channel as the estimated impact of openings differs between host countries that are more or less competitive than the source country. The systemic risk metrics also decline with respect to expansion, though results for the competition channel are more mixed, suggesting that systemic risk is more likely to be affected by country or business models characteristics that go beyond and above the differential intensity of competition between source and host markets. Empirical results can be rationalized through a simple model with oligopolistic/oligopsonistic banks and endogenous assets/liabilities risk.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Ester Faia","Sébastien Laffitte","Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a8e39b6da3a43021","title":"Welfare Dynamics Measurement: Two Definitions of a Vulnerability Line and Their Empirical Application","abstract":"We propose a new approach to develop vulnerability lines that are explicitly anchored to the idea of a sub‐set of the population at risk of falling into poverty. We suggest that lines developed in this way can also be applied for the purpose of identifying the middle class (or “secure”). We illustrate that such vulnerability lines can be straightforwardly estimated with panel data, drawing on data from the USA and Vietnam. Importantly, given the relative scarcity of panel datasets, we show further that our method can be applied to synthetic panel datasets. We demonstrate this by means of an illustration using repeated cross‐section data from India. Our results indicate that in Vietnam and India during the 2000s, the population shares that can be designated as poor and as secure have, respectively, been falling and expanding, with the vulnerable share of the population remaining fairly stable. Sharply contrasting trends are seen in the USA.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Hai‐Anh Dang","Peter Lanjouw"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12237","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a8f17219635957f2","title":"Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data","abstract":"The increasing availability of data derived from linked consumer financial accounts has the potential to dramatically expand the potential for research. Examining the most comprehensive existing set of linked-account data, consisting of transaction and balance sheet data for millions of Americans, I demonstrate the power and versatility of such sources. I discuss advantages and concerns arising from this type of data and match a range of distributional moments to external sources. As one application, I test consumption elasticities across households with varying levels, and types, of debt. I find that heterogeneity in consumption elasticity can be explained entirely by credit and liquidity.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Scott Baker"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/698106","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a8fa88e091d6c3dd","title":"Tfp, News, and “Sentiments”: the International Transmission of Business Cycles","abstract":"We propose a novel identification scheme for a nontechnology business cycle shock, which we label “sentiment”. This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximize the short-run forecast error variance of an expectational variable, alternatively a GDP forecast or a consumer confidence index. We then estimate the international transmission of three identified shocks—surprise TFP, news of future TFP, and sentiment—from the United States to Canada. The US sentiment shock produces a business cycle in the United States, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and accounts for the bulk of the US short-run business cycle fluctuations. The sentiment shock also has a significant impact on Canadian macroaggregates. In the short run, it is more important than either the surprise or the news TFP shocks in generating business cycle comovement between the United States and Canada, accounting for over 40% of the forecast error variance of Canadian GDP and over one-third of Canadian hours, imports, and exports. The news shock is responsible for some comovement at 5–10 years, and surprise TFP innovations do not generate synchronization. We provide a simple theoretical framework to illustrate how the US sentiment shocks can transmit to Canada.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Andrei A. Levchenko","Nitya Pandalai-Nayar"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy044","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a8ff6b54530e6704","title":"Racial Bias in Bail Decisions","abstract":"This article develops a new test for identifying racial bias in the context of bail decisions—a high-stakes setting with large disparities between white and black defendants. We motivate our analysis using Becker’s model of racial bias, which predicts that rates of pretrial misconduct will be identical for marginal white and marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially unbiased. In contrast, marginal white defendants will have higher rates of misconduct than marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially biased, whether that bias is driven by racial animus, inaccurate racial stereotypes, or any other form of bias. To test the model, we use the release tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to identify the relevant race-specific misconduct rates. Estimates from Miami and Philadelphia show that bail judges are racially biased against black defendants, with substantially more racial bias among both inexperienced and part-time judges. We find suggestive evidence that this racial bias is driven by bail judges relying on inaccurate stereotypes that exaggerate the relative danger of releasing black defendants.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David Arnold","Will Dobbie","Crystal Yang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy012","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a90c6604ffb2a0b7","title":"Beyond cost and carbon: The multidimensional co-benefits of low carbon transitions in Europe","abstract":"The paper explores the myriad potential benefits of four low-carbon transitions beyond those in the environmental or economic domain. Drawn from a rich set of original mixed methods data—across expert interviews, focus groups, and public internet forums—we examine the presumed multidimensional, qualitative co-benefits to nuclear power in France, solar photovoltaics in Germany, electric vehicles in Norway, and smart meters in Great Britain. We catalogue 128 identified prospective co-benefits to these four European low-carbon transitions, 30 for nuclear power, 30 for solar photovoltaic panels, 26 for electric vehicles and 42 for smart meters. Tellingly, 37 of these collective benefits are identified as economic and 14 environmental, but the remaining ones illustrate a broader spectrum of technical benefits (31 in total), social benefits (30 in total) and political benefits (16 in total). After presenting this body of evidence, the paper then discusses these benefits more deeply in terms of complementarity, temporality, scale, actors, and incumbency. We conclude with insights for energy and climate research and policy more broadly.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Benjamin K. Sovacool","Mari Martiskainen","Andrew Hook","Lucy Baker"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106529","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a927f275187ccf16","title":"Effect of personality traits on smallholders’ land renting behavior: Theory and evidence from the North China Plain","abstract":"This study investigates the effect of smallholders’ personality traits on their land rental market decisions. We develop a conceptual framework and show that these internal factors could affect smallholders’ land rental market participation beyond institutional and socio-demographic factors. Our empirical analysis is based on a survey of 2119 rural households collected in the North China Plain. We find that smallholders with a higher level of openness are more active in participating in the farmland rental market. Moreover, internal locus of control plays a significant role in explaining smallholders’ land renting behavior. We further show that need for achievement mediates the link between internal locus of control and smallholder’s intention to rent land, indicating that fostering a higher level of internal locus of control—and subsequently achievement desire—could play an important role in promoting smallholders’ land-renting behavior. More generally, our results imply that taking rural smallholders’ personality traits into account in designing land rental policies may increase the effectiveness of policies aimed at promoting land rental market participation among smallholders and incubating crop farm scale enlargement in rural China.","wordCount":177,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Chen Qian","Fan Li","Gerrit Antonides","Nico Heerink","Xianlei Ma","Xiande Li"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101510","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a93c82d8dc6c65b6","title":"Peer Pressure: Social Interaction and the Disposition Effect","abstract":"Social interaction contributes to some traders’ disposition effect. New data from an investment-specific social network linked to individual-level trading records builds evidence of this connection. To credibly estimate causal peer effects, I exploit the staggered entry of retail brokerages into partnerships with the social trading web platform and compare trader activity before and after exposure to these new social conditions. Access to the social network nearly doubles the magnitude of a trader’s disposition effect. Traders connected in the network develop correlated levels of the disposition effect, a finding that can be replicated using workhorse data from a large discount brokerage.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Rawley Heimer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw063","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a93d646d7a738071","title":"Some Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy","abstract":"We exploit changes in the area-specific eligibility criteria for a program to support jobs through investment subsidies. European rules determine whether an area is eligible for subsidies, and we construct instrumental variables for area eligibility based on parameters of these rule changes. Areas eligible for higher subsidies significantly increased jobs and reduced unemployment. A 10-percentage point increase in the maximum investment subsidy stimulates a 10 percent increase in manufacturing employment. This effect exists solely for small firms: large companies accept subsidies without increasing activity. There are positive effects on investment and employment for incumbent firms but not Total Factor Productivity.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Chiara Criscuolo","Ralf Martin","Henry G. Overman","John Van Reenen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160034","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a93f1d1cfa0e5fa6","title":"Who bears the risk? Incentives for renewable electricity under strategic interaction between regulator and investors","abstract":"Energy policies for promoting investment in renewable energy sources have become crucial for deploying green energy technologies worldwide. Conventional incentive systems assign risk to either policymakers or investors. In this paper, we combine option theory and game theory to obtain optimal parameters for incentive schemes with different degrees of risk-sharing. We present an empirical application to the Spanish electricity market for 2013, when the Feed-in Tariff scheme was still in force, and for 2019, when Feed-in Tariffs had been completely phased out but before the demand shock caused by COVID-19, the restructuring of market price limits, and the recent energy price crisis in Europe. Our results indicate that there are more flexible systems based on Fixed Tariffs and Premiums that can outperform conventional designs, since they may enable the same investment level to be reached at a lower regulatory cost. In addition, these hybrid schemes permit risk-sharing between both parties. Our results may also be useful for designing incentives awarded through competitive auctions.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Peio Alcorta","Marı́a Paz Espinosa","Cristina Pizarro-Irizar"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101401","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-a94425250c1bb8d0","title":"Support for renewable energy: The case of wind power","abstract":"The rise of societal goals like climate change mitigation and energy security calls for rapid capacity growth in renewable electricity sources, yet citizens’ support is put to a test when such technologies emit negative local externalities. We estimate the impact of wind turbine deployment on granular measures of revealed preferences for renewable electricity in product and political markets. We address potentially endogenous siting of turbines with an IV design that exploits quasi-experimental variation in profitability induced by subsidies. We find that wind turbines significantly reduce citizens’ support locally, but this effect quickly fades with distance from the site. We assess policy instruments for enhancing citizens’ support for renewable energy in light of our results. Contextual Challenge : While societal goals demand rapid expansion of renewable energy (e.g., wind power), local opposition arises due to negative externalities like noise pollution or visual disruption. Empirical Approach : The study uses an instrumental variables (IV) strategy to address endogeneity in wind turbine siting, leveraging quasi-experimental variations from subsidy-driven profitability differences. Policy Implications : Results inform the design of policies aimed at boosting public acceptance of renewable energy, emphasizing the need for financial compensation for negative local externalities of wind turbines.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Robert Germeshausen","Sven Heim","Ulrich J. Wagner"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105468","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a94d477ed4c6b991","title":"Public Goods in Endogenous Networks","abstract":"We study a local public good game in an endogenous network with heterogeneous players. The source of heterogeneity affects the gains from a connection and hence equilibrium networks. When players differ in the cost of producing the public good, active players form pyramidal complete multipartite graphs; yet, better types need not have more neighbors. When players differ in the valuation of the public good, nested split graphs emerge in which production need not be monotonic in type. In large societies, few players produce a lot; furthermore, networks dampen inequality under cost heterogeneity and increase it under heterogeneity in valuation.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Markus Kinateder","Luca Paolo Merlino"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140276","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a95f2af38deaf763","title":"An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Perceived Inequality","abstract":"Perception of inequality is important for the analysis of individuals' motivations and decisions and for policy assessment. Despite the broad range of analytic gains that it grants, our knowledge about measurement and determinants of perception of inequality is still limited, since it is intrinsically unobservable, multidimensional, and essentially contested. Using a novel econometric approach, we study how observable individual characteristics affect the joint distribution of a set of indicators of perceived inequality in specific domains. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme, we shed light on the associations among these indicators and how they are affected by covariates. The approach also gives insights on some results in the literature on inequality. The role of many subjective indicators for the perception of inequality is re‐examined and examples of policy applications are reviewed. The importance of our empirical approach to the measurement of perceived inequality is, in so doing, reinforced.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Sebastiano Bavetta","Paolo Li Donni","Maria Marino"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12351","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-a9619c976091d189","title":"Populism and Civil Society","abstract":"Since Tocqueville (1835), civil society has been recognized as a cornerstone of liberal democracy. But populists claim to be the only legitimate representatives of the people, leaving no space for civil society. Are populism and civil society enemies? To answer this question, we look at voters’ choices in Europe. We find that individuals belonging to associations are less likely by 1.6–2.8 percentage points to vote for populist parties, which is large considering that the average vote share for populist parties is between 12% and 22%. This result survives a large number of robustness checks.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Tito Boeri","Prachi Mishra","Chris Papageorgiou","Antonio Spilimbergo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12374","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a974a45bc4c28f27","title":"The signalling channel of negative interest rates","abstract":"Negative policy rates can convince markets that deposit rates will remain lower-for-longer, even when current deposit rates are constrained by zero. This is the signalling channel of negative interest rates. We analyse the optimality and effectiveness of negative rates in the context of this novel transmission channel. In a stylized model, we prove two necessary conditions for optimality: time-consistency and a preference for policy smoothing. In an estimated model, we show the signalling channel dominates banks’ costly interest margin channel. However, the effectiveness of negative rates depends sensitively on the degree of policy inertia, level of reserves, and ZLB duration.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Oliver de Groot","Alexander Haas"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a982ea1dda4c534a","title":"Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations","abstract":"We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers’ bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions. In the model, procyclical automation threats create endogenous real wage rigidity that amplifies labor market fluctuations. The automation mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence. It is also quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies relative to that of real wages, a puzzling observation through the lens of standard business cycle models.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Sylvain Leduc","Zheng Liu"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220181","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a985e4a90a149511","title":"What Are Cities Worth? Land Rents, Local Productivity, and the Total Value of Amenities","abstract":"This paper models how to use widely available data on wages and housing costs to infer land rents, local productivity, and the total value of local amenities in the presence of federal taxes and locally produced nontraded goods. I apply the model to U.S. metropolitan areas with the aid of visually intuitive graphs. The results improve measures of productivity and feature large differences in land rents. Wage and housing cost differences across metropolitan areas are accounted for more by productivity than quality-of-life differences. Regressions using individual amenities reveal that the most productive and valuable cities are typically coastal, sunny, mild, educated, and large.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["David Albouy"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00550","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9a98d29c3761ebd","title":"Municipal Bond Liquidity and Default Risk","abstract":"This paper examines the pricing of municipal bonds. I use three distinct, complementary approaches to decompose municipal bond spreads into default and liquidity components, and find that default risk accounts for 74% to 84% of the average spread after adjusting for tax‐exempt status. The first approach estimates the liquidity component using transaction data, the second measures the default component with credit default swap data, and the third is a quasi‐natural experiment that estimates changes in default risk around pre‐refunding events. The price of default risk is high given the rare incidence of municipal default and implies a high risk premium.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Michael Schwert"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12511","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9ae4515cc037af6","title":"Multigenerational Families and Food Insecurity","abstract":"The prevalence of multigenerational families is on the rise in the United States, as is food insecurity. We estimate the association of resident grandchildren on transitions in food insecurity using longitudinally linked two-year panels of the Current Population Survey from 2001 to 2010. We find that rates of food insecurity in families with a grandchild present are at least twice as high in a typical year compared with families without a resident grandchild, and the extent of very low food security increased substantially faster among these households over the past decade. The rise in food insecurity during and after the Great Recession is due to both increased entry into food insecurity and decreased exit out of food insecurity. A similar trend accounts for the rise in multigenerational households during the recession—grandchildren were more likely to move in with their grandparents, and once there, were less likely to move out. Our transition models show that whether grandchildren remain, or in periods of transition, multigenerational families are at heightened risk of entering food insecurity and remaining in this state. However, the entry of a grandchild may not always be a negative for the family's food security, nor the exit of the child a positive. Entrance of a child seems to buffer the family from extreme forms of food insecurity while exit exposes the family to risk of deeper food insecurity.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["James P. Ziliak","Craig Gundersen"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12082","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9b7bf10725401d1","title":"Globalization in the Early Modern Era: New Evidence from the Dutch-Asiatic Trade, c. 1600–1800","abstract":"This article contributes to the ongoing debate on the origins of globalization. It examines the process of commodity price convergence, an indicator of globalization, between Europe and Asia on the basis of newly obtained price data from the Dutch East India Company (VOC) archives. Prices for many commodities in the Dutch-Asiatic trade converged already in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries as a result of the growth of trade and competition among traders and companies. The extent of convergence, however, was determined, in part, by the ability of the VOC to control commodity markets.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Pim de Zwart"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000553","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9c0fe4f871c9b3f","title":"Gender Diversity on Corporate Boards: Do Women Contribute Unique Skills?","abstract":"We show that gender diversity in corporate boards could improve firm value because of the contributions that women make to the board. Prior studies examine valuation effects of gender-diverse boards and reach mixed conclusions. To help resolve this conundrum, we consider how gender diversity could affect firm value, that is, what mechanisms could explain how female directors benefit corporate board performance. We hypothesize and provide evidence that women directors contribute to boards by offering specific functional expertise, often missing from corporate boards. The additional expertise increases board heterogeneity which Kim and Starks (2015) show can increase firm value.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Dae Hyun Kim","Laura T. Starks"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20161032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9c12819b5632cdd","title":"The Political Economy of Famine: The Ukrainian Famine of 1933","abstract":"The 1933 Ukrainian famine killed as many as 2.6 million people out of a population of 32 million. Historians offer three main explanations: weather, economic policies, genocide. This paper documents that (1) available data do not support weather as the main explanation: 1931 and 1932 weather predicts harvest roughly equal to the 1924–1929 average; weather explains up to 8.1 percent of excess deaths. (2) Policies (collectivization of agriculture and the lack of favored industries) significantly increased famine mortality; collectivization explains up to 52 percent of excess deaths. (3) There is some evidence that ethnic Ukrainians and Germans were discriminated against.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Natalya Naumenko"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000625","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9cffc44383df5be","title":"Saving and Bequest in China: An Analysis of Intergenerational Exchange","abstract":"Particularly high saving rates among the elderly in both rural and urban China call for an investigation of the involved bequest motive. Utilizing unique survey data from a diverse group of Chinese households, we document that the magnitude of the bequest from parent to child is associated with the level of personal assistance from child to parent. Moreover, we find indicative evidence that both bequest and assistance are increasing in the parent's income and decreasing in the child's income. Comparing with the predictions from a stylized intergenerational model, these findings are consistent with an exchange‐based bequest motive. Our findings have potential implications for how public policies and transfer schemes should be designed in order to contribute to the Chinese government objective of increased private consumption. Our results are conditional on the inclusion of housing wealth as part of the bequest, which indicates that transfer of housing is key to understanding the intergenerational assistance and bequest motives, and subsequently the high saving levels among the elderly in China.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Ingvild Almås","Eleonora Freddi","Øystein Thøgersen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12303","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9de016635e3f71b","title":"The shape of luck and competition in winner‐take‐all tournaments","abstract":"In winner‐take‐all tournaments, agents' performance is determined jointly by effort and luck, and the top performer is rewarded. We study the impact of the “shape of luck”—the details of the distribution of performance shocks—on incentives in such settings. We are concerned with the effects of increasing the number of competitors, which can be deterministic or stochastic, on individual and aggregate effort. We show that these effects are determined by the shape of the density and failure (hazard) rate of the distribution of shocks. When shocks have heavy tails, aggregate effort can decrease in the number of competitors.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Dmitry Ryvkin","Mikhail Drugov"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3824","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-a9e7a58108456f82","title":"Consumer-related antecedents of food provisioning behaviors that promote food waste","abstract":"Household food waste has serious negative consequences for the environment and the society. Food waste results from food provisioning behaviors, however, there is little evidence regarding consumer-related factors that drive such behaviors. The aim was to investigate the antecedents of key food provisioning behaviors related to food waste and of motivation to reduce food waste. A cross-sectional online survey (N = 508) conducted in Denmark showed that excessive buying and discarding foods past the best before date were mainly driven by individual tendencies such as impulsive buying tendency or disgust sensitivity. Consumers’ frugal, environmental and hedonic self-identities were associated with higher motivation to reduce food waste, whereas the first two identities were also associated with lower likelihood of discarding food past the best before date. Consumers’ frugal self-identity and disgust sensitivity were directly associated negatively, respectively positively, with self-reported food waste as well. Excessive buying and motivation to reduce food waste were the most important proximal drivers of self-reported food waste. Implications for public policy are discussed.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Violeta Stancu","Liisa Lähteenmäki"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102236","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-a9ea0849275f832f","title":"The Impact of High School Financial Education: Evidence from a Large-Scale Evaluation in Brazil","abstract":"We study the impact of a comprehensive high school financial education program spanning 6 states, 892 schools, and approximately 25,000 students in Brazil through a randomized control trial. The program increased student financial proficiency by a quarter of a standard deviation and raised grade-level passing rates. Short-term financial behaviors, however, show mixed results with significant improvements in students' savings and budgeting as well as positive spillovers to parents, but also an increase in students' use of expensive credit to make consumer purchases.","wordCount":82,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Miriam Bruhn","Luciana de Souza Leão","Arianna Legovini","Rogelio Marchetti","Bilal Zia"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150149","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9f232bc92b89a86","title":"Education and Military Rivalry","abstract":"What makes countries engage in reforms of mass education? Motivated by historical evidence on the relation between military threats and expansions of primary education, we assemble a novel panel dataset from the last 150 years in European countries and from the postwar period in a large set of countries. We uncover three stylized facts: (i) investments in education increase following military threats, (ii) the presence of democratic institutions is negatively correlated with education investments, and (iii) education investments increase more following military threats in democracies. These patterns continue to hold when we exploit rivalries in a country's neighborhood as an alternative source of variation. We develop a theoretical model which rationalizes the three empirical findings. The model has an additional prediction about investments in physical infrastructures, which we also take to the data.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Philippe Aghion","Xavier Jaravel","Torsten Persson","Dorothée Rouzet"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy022","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9f47e9168144692","title":"Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit","abstract":"This study assesses the impact of the Brexit probability on both the UK and on international financial markets, for the first and the second statistical moments. As financial markets are by nature highly interlinked, one might expect that the uncertainty engendered by Brexit also has an impact on financial markets in several other countries. We first estimate the time-varying interactions between UK policy uncertainty, which to a large extent is attributed to uncertainty about Brexit and UK financial market volatilities. Second, we use two other measures of the perceived probability of Brexit before the referendum, namely daily data released by Betfair and results of polls published by Bloomberg. Based on these data sets, and using both panel and single-country SUR estimation methods, we analyse the Brexit effect on levels of stock returns, sovereign CDS, 10-year interest rates in 19 predominantly European countries, and those of the British pound and the euro. We show that Brexit-induced policy uncertainty will continue to cause instability in key financial markets and has the potential to damage the real economy in both the UK and other European countries. The main losers outside the UK are the ‘GIIPS’ economies: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Ansgar Belke","Irina Dubova","Thomas Osowski"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1436152","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-a9fce46e362e61cc","title":"A “More-is-Better” heuristic in anticommons dilemmas: Psychological insights from a new anticommons bargaining game","abstract":"In the present paper, we investigate how people make decisions when bargaining about complementary resources. When the ownership of such resources is fragmented, actors often fail to coordinate on efficient access, leading to an overall loss in social welfare; the tragedy of the anticommons. In a series of three experiments, in which we introduce a newly developed Anticommons Bargaining Game, we show that people tend to treat perfectly complementary resources as if they are non-complementary. Specifically, we demonstrate that both Sellers and Buyers of such resources used a more-is-better heuristic when determining their prices. That is, Sellers who initially owned a larger part of the resource asked a higher price for their resource than Sellers with a smaller part, even though only the combination of parts generated value for the Buyer. Likewise, Buyers offered more money to Sellers with a larger part than to Sellers with a smaller part. While this heuristic does not necessarily impede coordination, inequality in resources led to unequal monetary outcomes between the two Sellers.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Erik W. de Kwaadsteniet","Jörg Gross","Eric van Dijk"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102653","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa008ada34a2ae08","title":"Are remote work options the new standard? Evidence from vacancy postings during the COVID-19 crisis","abstract":"This study examines how the COVID-19 crisis has changed the willingness of employers to offer teleworking options. We analyze job descriptions from vacancy postings on the largest Austrian job board to classify whether employers offer the option to telework to new hires. Our results show that the crisis has substantially increased the scope for remote work. About one year after the onset of the crisis, employers were 2–3 times as likely to explicitly offer such an option relative to levels before the pandemic. This effect is particularly strong for jobs that require at least a degree from a higher secondary school. Accounting for changes in vacancies by occupations and firms, we find that the impact is neither driven by an increase in the demand for teleworkable occupations nor by an increase in vacancies at teleworking-friendly firms. Although many social distancing restrictions were relaxed again during the summer of 2020, the effect persists throughout the first year of the crisis, suggesting that the pandemic may have long-lasting effects on remote working arrangements. To test the robustness of our results, we merge two external occupation-level teleworking measures to our sample. Both measures are highly correlated with our measure and yield comparable estimates for the impact of the pandemic on vacancies for teleworkable occupations.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Omar Bamieh","Lennart Ziegler"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102179","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa02d4228e674389","title":"Subjective beliefs and economic preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic presents a remarkable opportunity to put to work all of the research that has been undertaken in past decades on the elicitation and structural estimation of subjective belief distributions as well as preferences over atemporal risk, patience, and intertemporal risk. As contributors to elements of that research in laboratories and the field, we drew together those methods and applied them to an online, incentivized experiment in the United States. We have two major findings. First, the atemporal risk premium during the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to change significantly compared to before the pandemic, consistent with theoretical results of the effect of increased background risk on foreground risk attitudes. Second, subjective beliefs about the cumulative level of deaths evolved dramatically over the period between May and November 2020, a volatile one in terms of the background evolution of the pandemic. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10683-021-09738-3.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Glenn W. Harrison","Andre Hofmeyr","Harold Kincaid","Brian Monroe","Don Ross","Mark Schneider","J. Todd Swarthout"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09738-3","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aa0a7856320ea9fe","title":"The Social Value of Health Insurance: Results from Ghana","abstract":"We use the roll-out of the national health insurance in Ghana to assess the cushioning effect of coverage on the financial consequences of health shocks and resulting changes in coping behaviors. We find a strong reduction in medical expenditures, preventing households from cutting non-food consumption and causing a decrease in the volume of received remittances as well as labor supply of healthy adult household members. Moreover, we present evidence that the insurance scheme reduced the likelihood that households experiencing a health shock pulled their children out of school in order to put them to work. Avoidance of such costly coping mechanisms is potentially an important part of the social value of formal health insurance.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Sílvia Garcia‐Mandicó","Arndt Reichert","Christoph Strupat"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104314","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa121f2e54b1e0d0","title":"The effects of immigration on NHS waiting times","abstract":"This paper analyzes the effects of immigration on waiting times for the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Linking administrative records from Hospital Episode Statistics (2003-2012) with immigration data drawn from the UK Labour Force Survey, we find that immigration reduced waiting times for outpatient referrals and did not have significant effects on waiting times in accident and emergency departments (A&E) and elective care. The reduction in outpatient waiting times can be explained by the fact that immigration increases natives' internal mobility and that immigrants tend to be healthier than natives who move to different areas. Finally, we find evidence that immigration increased waiting times for outpatient referrals in more deprived areas outside of London. The increase in average waiting times in more deprived areas is concentrated in the years immediately following the 2004 EU enlargement and disappears in the medium term (e.g., 3-4 years).","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Osea Giuntella","Catia Nicodemo","Carlos Vargas‐Silva"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.02.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-aa16fdd263b5cff3","title":"How much does degree choice matter?","abstract":"We use a large and novel administrative dataset to investigate returns to different university ‘degrees’ (subject-institution combinations) in the United Kingdom. Conditioning on a rich set of background characteristics, we find substantial variation in returns across degrees with similar selectivity levels, suggesting students’ degree choices matter a lot for later-life earnings. Returns increase with university selectivity much more at the top of the selectivity distribution than further down, and much more for some subjects than others. Returns are poorly correlated with observable degree characteristics other than selectivity, which could have important implications for student choices and the incentives of universities.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Jack Britton","Laura van der Erve","Chris Belfield","Anna Vignoles","Matt Dickson","Yu Zhu","Ian Walker","Lorraine Dearden","Luke Sibieta","Franz Buscha"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102268","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa177c5fb7f2c738","title":"Network analysis of “top-five” economics journals","abstract":"In economics journals, the share of theoretical work declined between 2000 and 2024, while empirical research, especially in development, labor, and public economics, expanded and received substantially higher citation counts. Despite changes in research topics and methods, the structure of scholarly knowledge production in economics remains hierarchical, suggesting that intellectual innovation occurs within a stable institutional core. This paper examines patterns in knowledge production within the top-five economics journals from 2000 to 2024. Drawing on the full set of published articles and associated bibliometric details, citations, co-authorship links, and institutional affiliations, I document notable shifts in the orientation of research. The share of theoretical work has declined, while empirical fields, particularly development, labor, and public economics, have expanded. Network analysis shows that although the substantive questions and analytical approaches in top-five journals are changing, a small group of U.S. universities continues to account for a disproportionate share of highly cited work and occupies central positions in citation networks, a core that at the same time facilitates communication and exchange across fields.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Gregori Galofré-Vilà"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"A","allJels":["A","O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"General Economics / A","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa1a6ec0748f7358","title":"The Democratization of Credit and the Rise in Consumer Bankruptcies","abstract":"Financial innovations are a common explanation for the rise in credit card debt and bankruptcies. To evaluate this story, we develop a simple model that incorporates two key frictions: asymmetric information about borrowers' risk of default and a fixed cost of developing each contract lenders offer. Innovations that ameliorate asymmetric information or reduce this fixed cost have large extensive margin effects via the entry of new lending contracts targeted at riskier borrowers. This results in more defaults and borrowing, and increased dispersion of interest rates. Using the Survey of Consumer Finances and Federal Reserve Board interest rate data, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Specifically, the dispersion of credit card interest rates nearly tripled while the “new” cardholders of the late 1980s and 1990s had riskier observable characteristics than existing cardholders. Our calculations suggest that these new cardholders accounted for over 20% of the rise in bank credit card debt and delinquencies between 1989 and 1998.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Igor Livshits","James C. Mac Gee","Michèle Tertilt"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw011","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aa25c0140a408a5e","title":"Can technology improve the classroom experience in primary education? An African experiment on a worldwide program","abstract":"Primary school coverage has been increasing in most developing countries. Yet, it has not been accompanied by significant improvements in learning indicators. We implemented a randomized experiment in Angola around the introduction of ProFuturo, a worldwide educational program. The program includes a Computer-assisted Learning (CAL) software directed at improving the regular classroom experience. One year after the program started, we find higher familiarity with technology. Teachers miss fewer days of classes and implement better teaching practices. Students become more interested in learning and pro-social. Finally, the program improves students’ test scores but only in the most popular subject in the CAL platform.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Joana Cardim","Teresa Molina-Millán","Pedro C. Vicente"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103145","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-aa277eab01fc4545","title":"What Do We Know So Far about Multigenerational Mobility?","abstract":"‘Multigenerational mobility’ refers to the associations in socio‐economic status across three or more generations. This article begins by summarising the long‐standing but recently growing empirical literature on multigenerational mobility. It then discusses multiple theoretical interpretations of the empirical patterns, including the one recently proposed in Gregory Clark's book The Son Also Rises.","wordCount":52,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Gary Solon"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12495","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aa2fac46e0d24098","title":"The Labor Market Returns to Advanced Degrees","abstract":"We estimate the returns to a broad set of graduate degrees. To control for heterogeneity in preferences and ability, we use fixed effects for combinations of field-specific undergraduate and graduate degrees obtained by the last time we observe an individual. Basically, we compare earnings before the graduate degree to earnings after it. Using National Science Foundation data, we find large differences across graduate fields in earnings effects. The returns often depend on the undergraduate major. The contribution of occupational upgrading to the earnings gain varies across degrees. Finally, simple regression-based estimates of returns to graduate fields are often highly misleading.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Joseph G. Altonji","Ling Zhong"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/710959","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aa3b696331c7a3b2","title":"Incomplete financial markets, the social cost of carbon and constrained efficient carbon pricing","abstract":"This paper examines constrained optimal carbon pricing in a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets. A carbon policy consists of state-dependent carbon taxes and a sharing rule for tax revenue recycling. For the case of complete markets, we state simple, sufficient conditions that ensure that setting carbon taxes equal to the SCC results in a Pareto-efficient competitive equilibrium. When markets are incomplete, constrained Pareto-efficient carbon taxes generically differ from the SCC. To examine the potential quantitative importance of these differences, we consideran Aiyagari-style model with a climate change externality. We prove that the deviations of constrained optimal carbon taxes from the SCC can be arbitrarily large. This paper examines constrained optimal carbon pricing in a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets. A carbon policy consists of state-dependent carbon taxes and a sharing rule for tax revenue recycling. The social cost of carbon (SCC) is defined as the present value of the future marginal costs of additional CO2 emissions, discounted at (personalized) prices. For the case of complete markets, we state simple, sufficient conditions that ensure that setting carbon taxes equal to the SCC results in a Pareto-efficient competitive equilibrium. When markets are incomplete, constrained Pareto-efficient carbon taxes generically differ from the SCC. To examine the potential quantitative importance of these differences, we consider an Aiyagari [1994]-style model with a climate change externality. We prove that (i) the SCC cannot be estimated from aggregate damage functions and market prices alone, and (ii) the deviations of constrained optimal carbon taxes from the SCC can be arbitrarily large.","wordCount":257,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Felix Kübler"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.106105","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa4e8d0efe94a6b4","title":"Sovereign debt and incentives to default with uninsurable risks","abstract":"We show that sovereign debt is unsustainable if debt contracts are not supported by direct sanctions and default carries only a ban from ever borrowing in financial markets even in the presence of uninsurable risks and time-varying interest rate. This extension of Bulow and Rogoff, 1989 requires that the present value of the endowment be finite under the most optimistic valuation. We provide examples where this condition fails and sovereign debt is sustained by the threat of loss of insurance opportunities upon default, despite the fact that the most pessimistic valuation of the endowment, the natural debt limit, is finite.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Gaetano Bloise","Herakles Polemarchakis","Yiannis Vailakis"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2146","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-aa59d36ad73d7493","title":"Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design","abstract":"This paper estimates the effects of temporary driver’s license suspensions on driving behavior. A little-known rule in the German traffic penalty schedule maintains that drivers who commit a series of speeding offenses within 365 days should have their licenses suspended for 1 month. My regression discontinuity design exploits the quasi-random assignment of license suspensions caused by the 365-day cutoff and shows that 1-month license suspensions lower the probability of recidivating within a year by 20 percent. This is largely a specific-deterrence effect driven by the punishment itself and not by incapacitation, information asymmetries, or the threat of stiffer future penalties.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Markus Gehrsitz"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/694844","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aa6ac96aab9c8bce","title":"Relative power: Explaining the effects of food and cash transfers on allocative behaviour in rural Nepalese households","abstract":"We estimate the effects of antenatal food and cash transfers with women's groups on household allocative behaviour and explore whether these effects are explained by intergenerational bargaining among women. Interventions were tested in randomised-controlled trial in rural Nepal, in a food-insecure context where pregnant women are allocated the least adequate diets. We show households enrolled in a cash transfer intervention allocated pregnant women with 2-3 pp larger shares of multiple foods (versus their mothers-in-law and male household heads) than households in a control group. Households in a food transfer intervention only increased pregnant women's allocation of staple foods (by 2 pp). Intergenerational bargaining power may partly mediate the effects of the cash transfers but not food transfers, whereas household food budget and nutrition knowledge do not mediate any effects. Our findings highlight the role of intergenerational bargaining in determining the effectiveness of interventions aiming to reach and/or empower junior women.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Helen Harris–Fry","Naomi Saville","Puskar Raj Paudel","Dharma Manandhar","Mario Cortina‐Borja","Jolene Skordis"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102784","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa6de6e7f4ebd046","title":"Do Funds Make More When They Trade More?","abstract":"We model fund turnover in the presence of time‐varying profit opportunities. Our model predicts a positive relation between an active fund's turnover and its subsequent benchmark‐adjusted return. We find such a relation for equity mutual funds. This time‐series relation between turnover and performance is stronger than the cross‐sectional relation, as the model predicts. Also as predicted, the turnover‐performance relation is stronger for funds trading less‐liquid stocks and funds likely to possess greater skill. Turnover is correlated across funds. The common component of turnover is positively correlated with proxies for stock mispricing. Turnover of similar funds helps predict a fund's performance.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Ľuboš Pástor","Robert F. Stambaugh","Lucian A. Taylor"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12509","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aa77d73a9001fbef","title":"Estimating the effectiveness of forest protection using regression discontinuity","abstract":"This article uses satellite data to estimate the effectiveness of government protection on forested land across the globe over 2000–2022. Since deforestation can have significant negative externalities, measuring the effectiveness of protected areas is important for the future of conservation. It uses a regression discontinuity design at the boundaries of protected forest to counter the fact that protection is not randomly assigned. It estimates that protected areas are 30% effective on average, with significant heterogeneity between countries. Many countries with significant forest have extremely ineffective protection, such as Indonesia, the DRC, and Bolivia, suggesting that improvements to the quality of protection are just as important as the quantity of protected areas to conserve biodiversity.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Timothy Neal"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103021","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa7d0c6344e5d9bd","title":"How consumers respond to product certification and the value of energy information","abstract":"I study how consumers respond to competing pieces of information that differ in their degree of complexity and informativeness. In particular, I study the choice of refrigerators in the United States, where a mandatory disclosure labelling program provides detailed information about energy cost, and a certification labelling program provides a simple binary‐star rating related to energy use. I find that the coarse certification may help some consumers to pay attention to energy information, but for others, it may crowd out efforts to process more accurate, but complex, energy information. The effect of the certification on overall energy use is thus ambiguous.","wordCount":101,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Sébastien Houde"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12231","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-aa82a32e75a1ecdb","title":"Fighting violence against women: The role of female political representation","abstract":"We investigate the effect of women’s political leadership in local government on domestic violence against women. Using a regression discontinuity design, we compare Brazilian municipalities where a female candidate barely won to those where a female candidate barely lost mayoral elections. We find that the presence of a female mayor leads to a 50% average reduction in both the homicide rate and violence against women over a four-year term. These results are not attributable to pre-existing municipal characteristics or other observable mayor attributes. Collectively, our findings offer compelling evidence that women in office play a significant role in effectively addressing violence against women.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Alena Bochenkova","Paolo Buonanno","Sergio Galletta"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103140","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aa8a16ba7140c824","title":"Inflation and Price Adjustments: Micro Evidence from Norwegian Consumer Prices 1975–2004","abstract":"This is the first paper documenting the frequency and size of price adjustments using micro data from both the high-inflation period in the 1970s and 1980s, and the period of low inflation since the early 1990s. When inflation is high and volatile, prices change more frequently and in smaller magnitudes. When inflation is low and stable, prices change less frequently but in larger magnitudes. The frequency of price changes is more important for the variation in inflation when inflation is high and volatile. When inflation is low and stable, the magnitude of the price changes is more important than the frequency.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Fredrik Wulfsberg"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140095","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aa8a91a4fc8e861a","title":"The Aftermath of the February Flood of 1825: Social and Demographic Change in the Krummhörn Region, East Frisia","abstract":"In February 1825, the dikes broke after a spring tide in the Krummhörn region in East Frisia, Germany, causing a severe disaster. Although the flood did not claim many victims, substantial damage was done to the farmland, and the economic crisis that followed permanently changed the social structure in the Krummhörn. We study family reconstitutions of the region linked to information about socioeconomic status, detailed reports of the flood damage, and information on crop prices for the entire study period. We innovate on the literature through our reconstruction of property damage at the parish level, as well as of the economic development in the region, combined with family reconstitutions. We investigate the short-term impact of the flood on marital fertility and child mortality, as well as the long-term impact on age at first childbirth and age at first marriage of individuals who experienced the flood early in life. We use Cox proportional hazard models to study mortality. The timing and the likelihood of transitions are investigated with the help of mixed parametric cure models. We find that child mortality, but not infant mortality, increased in the flood aftermath, but that this increase in mortality was not attributable to the flood-related damage. Furthermore, we find no evidence of changes in the timing of first childbirth or marriage among the affected individuals. These findings contrast with the results of several other studies indicating that external shocks and crisis experience early in life affect life course outcomes.","wordCount":244,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Kai P. Willführ","Josep Sottile Perez"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101650","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aaa074c522c70c3e","title":"Payoff equivalence of efficient mechanisms in large matching markets","abstract":"We study Pareto efficient mechanisms in matching markets when the number of agents is large and individual preferences are randomly drawn from a class of distributions, allowing for both common and idiosyncratic shocks. We provide a broad set of circumstances under which, as the market grows large, all Pareto efficient mechanisms—including top trading cycles (with an arbitrary ownership structure), serial dictatorship (with an arbitrary serial order), and their randomized variants—produce a distribution of agent utilities that in the limit coincides with the utilitarian upper bound. This implies that Pareto efficient mechanisms are uniformly asymptotically payoff equivalent “up to the renaming of agents.” Hence, when the conditions of our model are met, policy makers need not discriminate among Pareto efficient mechanisms based on the aggregate payoff distribution of participants.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Yeon‐Koo Che","Olivier Tercieux"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2793","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-aab4450626972168","title":"Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010","abstract":"This paper constructs a new chronology of the business cycle in the United Kingdom from 1700 on an annual basis and from 1920 on a quarterly basis to 2010. The new chronology points to several observations about the business cycle. First, the cycle has significantly increased in duration and amplitude over time. Second, contractions have become less frequent but are as persistent and costly as at other times in history. Third, the typical recession has been tick‐shaped with a short contraction and longer recovery. Finally, the major causes of downturns have been sectoral shocks, financial crises, and wars.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Stephen Broadberry","Jagjit S. Chadha","Jason Lennard","Ryland Thomas"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13238","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aabce005696432e6","title":"Time Use and Labor Productivity: The Returns to Sleep","abstract":"We investigate how the largest use of time—sleep—affects productivity. Time use data from the United States allow us to test a model in which sleep improves productivity. Consistent with theory, we find sleep is more complementary to home production than to leisure for nonemployed individuals. We then show that later sunset time reduces worker sleep and earnings. After ruling out alternative hypotheses, we implement an instrumental variables specification that provides causal estimates of the impact of sleep on earnings. A 1-hour increase in location-average weekly sleep increases earnings by 1.1% in the short run and 5% in the long run.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Matthew Gibson","Jeffrey Shrader"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00746","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aabde6b87babbe2e","title":"Preferences for in-kind and in-cash home care insurance","abstract":"We study preferences for different types of home care insurance using a discrete choice experiment. We consider domestic, personal, and social care, a home care annuity, and a lump-sum for home adaptations. To understand variation in preferences, we relate willingness to pay to personal circumstances, preferences, and expectations. We find that the majority value in-kind and in-cash insurance above the actuarial premium. While most respondents value coverage for basic levels of support, we find diminishing marginal utility for higher levels of support. For in-kind care, willingness to pay is positively associated with respondent characteristics: being single, household income, home ownership, risk aversion, low bequest motives, expected length of home care use, expected expenditures when in need of care, and low expected availability of informal care. In contrast, in-cash support is valued regardless of respondent characteristics, possibly because its inherent flexibility. These results contribute to the design of insurance schemes for home care.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jochem de Bresser","Marike Knoef","Raun van Ooijen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102626","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aabe26c26b85b210","title":"The U.S. Treasury Premium","abstract":"We quantify the difference in the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries and government bonds of other developed countries by measuring the deviation from covered interest parity between government bond yields. We call this wedge the “U.S. Treasury Premium.” We document a secular decline in the U.S. Treasury Premium at medium to long maturities. The five-year U.S. Treasury Premium averages approximately 21 basis points prior to the Global Financial Crisis, increases up to 90 basis points during the crisis, and disappears after the crisis with the post-crisis mean at −8 basis points. Meanwhile, the short-term U.S. Treasury Premium remains positive post-crisis. We discuss the impact of sovereign credit risk, foreign exchange swap market frictions, and the relative supply of government bonds on the U.S. Treasury Premium","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Wenxin Du","Joanne Im","Jesse Schreger"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.01.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-aabf18713ed1f31b","title":"Unwanted daughters: the unintended consequences of a ban on sex-selective abortions on the educational attainment of women","abstract":"We study whether legal restrictions on prenatal discrimination against females leads to a shift by parents towards postnatal discrimination, focusing on the impact on educational attainment. We exploit the differentially timed introduction of a ban on sex-selective abortions across states in India. We find that a legal restriction on abortions led to an increase in the number of females born, as well as a widening in the gender gap in educational attainment. Females born in states affected by the ban are 2.3, 3.5, and 3.2 percentage points less likely to complete grade 10, complete grade 12, and enter university, respectively, relative to males. These effects are concentrated among non-wealthy households that lacked the resources to evade the ban. Investigating mechanisms, we find that the relative reduction in investments in female education was not driven by family size but because surviving females became relatively unwanted, whereas surviving males became relatively more valued, leading to an increasing concentration of household resources on them. Discrimination is amplified among higher-order births and among females with relatively few sisters. Finally, these negative effects exist despite the existence of a marriage market channel through which parents increase investments in their daughters’ education to increase the probability that they make a high-quality match. This suggests that policymakers need to address the unintended welfare consequences of interventions aimed at promoting gender equity.","wordCount":224,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Garima Rastogi","Anisha Sharma"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00896-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aafbd747ad2c8ff2","title":"New Facts on Consumer Price Rigidity in the Euro Area","abstract":"Using CPI microdata for 11 euro area countries over 2010–2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: (i) the average frequency of price changes is 12 percent; (ii) the distribution of price changes is highly dispersed, with frequent large and small changes; (iii) price changes are more frequent in January; and (iv) the overall size of price changes rises with inflation, but their frequency does not; these changes in the size are driven by movements in the fraction of price changes that are increases, not by the absolute size of price increases or decreases.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Erwan Gautier","Cristina Conflitti","Riemer P. Faber","Brian Fabo","Ludmila Fadejeva","Valentin Jouvanceau","Jan-Oliver Menz","Teresa Messner","Pavlos Petroulas","Pau Roldan-Blanco","Fabio Rumler","Sergio Santoro","Elisabeth Wieland","Hélène Zimmer"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220289","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aafc20ab11bc8ae7","title":"The importance of species diversity for human well-being in Europe","abstract":"Nature affects human well-being in multiple ways. However, the association between species diversity and human well-being at larger spatial scales remains largely unexplored. Here, we examine the relationship between species diversity and human well-being at the continental scale, while controlling for other known drivers of well-being. We related socio-economic data from more than 26,000 European citizens across 26 countries with macroecological data on species diversity and nature characteristics for Europe. Human well-being was measured as self-reported life-satisfaction and species diversity as the species richness of several taxonomic groups (e.g. birds, mammals and trees). Our results show that bird species richness is positively associated with life-satisfaction across Europe. We found a relatively strong relationship, indicating that the effect of bird species richness on life-satisfaction may be of similar magnitude to that of income. We discuss two, non-exclusive pathways for this relationship: the direct multisensory experience of birds, and beneficial landscape properties which promote both bird diversity and people's well-being. Based on these results, this study argues that management actions for the protection of birds and the landscapes that support them would benefit humans. We suggest that political and societal decision-making should consider the critical role of species diversity for human well-being.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Joel Methorst","Katrin Rehdanz","Thomas Mueller","Bernd Hansjürgens","Aletta Bonn","Katrin Böhning‐Gaese"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106917","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ab1ac7aba27d112a","title":"Financial constraints, ownership dilution, and the method of payment in M&A transactions","abstract":"The method of payment choice in merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions has been the subject of much research in the finance literature. But significant changes in the economic environment of acquirers in the U.S. call into question whether known stylized facts are still valid and motivate us to undertake new empirical analyses. Using a large sample of M&A transactions spanning the last two decades, we investigate the financial constraints versus ownership dilution tradeoff that potentially drives negotiations about the method of payment (i.e., stock or cash), controlling for an extensive list of other potential determinants. The main takeaway from our analyses is that financial constraints are a dominant factor motivating acquirers to include stock (at least partially) in the method of payment package in M&A transactions in the recent period.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Eric de Bodt","Jean-Gabriel Cousin","Micah S. Officer"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102250","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ab2190ad35a56038","title":"When do we observe a gender gap in competition entry? A meta-analysis of the experimental literature","abstract":"This paper systematizes the experimental evidence on gender differences in competition preferences with a meta-analysis of 110 studies and 409 effect sizes on observed or residual gender gaps in experimental tournament entry. Our meta-summary confirms that, across all studies, men choose a tournament scheme 13 percentage points more often than women, which is only about a third of the gap found in Niederle and Vesterlund's (2007) seminal paper. Our meta-regression analysis reveals that larger gender differences are indeed prevalent in studies that most closely apply the Niederle-Vesterlund design, i.e., differences are largest in lab experiments with student subject pools and when math tasks are involved, but almost negligible for other age groups, verbal tasks, and in field-like environments. Experimental interventions such as information treatments or affirmative action measures prove very effective in reducing or even eliminating the gender gap. Although some measures of risk preferences and confidence are systematically related to the estimated residual gender gap in tournament entry, they do not eradicate competitiveness as a distinct trait. Finally, higher gender equality at the country level seems to go along with larger differences in women's and men's competition preferences.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Eva Markowsky","Miriam Beblo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.03.030","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ab29c4fc02779be2","title":"Climate Risk Disclosure and Institutional Investors","abstract":"Through a survey and analyses of observational data, we provide systematic evidence that institutional investors value and demand climate risk disclosures. The survey reveals the investors have a strong demand for climate risk disclosures, and many actively engage their portfolio firms for improvements. Empirical analyses of holdings data corroborate this evidence by showing a significantly positive association between climate-conscious institutional ownership and better firm-level climate risk disclosure. We establish further evidence of institutional investors’ influence on firms’ climate risk disclosures by examining a shock to the climate risk disclosure demand of French institutional investors (French Article 173).","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Emirhan Ilhan","Philipp Krueger","Zacharias Sautner","Laura T. Starks"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad002","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ab3298d9bbe751c6","title":"Measuring and Bounding Experimenter Demand","abstract":"We propose a technique for assessing robustness to demand effects of findings from experiments and surveys. The core idea is that by deliberately inducing demand in a structured way we can bound its influence. We present a model in which participants respond to their beliefs about the researcher’s objectives. Bounds are obtained by manipulating those beliefs with “demand treatments.” We apply the method to 11 classic tasks, and estimate bounds averaging 0.13 standard deviations, suggesting that typical demand effects are probably modest. We also show how to compute demand-robust treatment effects and how to structurally estimate the model.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Jonathan de Quidt","Johannes Haushofer","Christopher Roth"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20171330","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ab37e82a0560bdca","title":"Reciprocity and gift exchange in markets for credence goods","abstract":"We study the role of reciprocity in markets where expert-sellers have more information about the severity of a problem faced by a consumer. We employ a standard experimental credence goods market to introduce the possibility for consumers to gift the expert-seller before the diagnostic, where the gift is either transferred unconditionally or conditionally on solving the problem. We find that both types of gifts increase the frequency of consumer-friendly actions relative to no gift, but only conditional gifts translate into efficiency gains when the consumer faces a high-severity problem. This suggests that partial alignment of incentives via conditional gifts may outweigh kindness motives when reciprocal actions are not directly observed. Using further treatments with surprise gift exchange, we show that withholding a gift that is expected by expert-sellers significantly reduces the likelihood of consumer-friendly behavior whereas sending a gift to expert-sellers who do not expect one has no effect.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Serhiy Kandul","Bruno Lanz","Evert Reins"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ab3f07d0f11b55ca","title":"Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity","abstract":"The traditional approach to the stress testing of financial institutions focuses on capital adequacy and solvency. Liquidity stress tests have been applied in parallel to and independently from solvency stress tests, based on scenarios which may not be consistent with those used in solvency stress tests. We propose a structural framework for the joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity: our approach exploits the mechanisms underlying the solvency-liquidity nexus to derive relations between solvency shocks and liquidity shocks. These relations are then used to model liquidity and solvency risk in a coherent framework, involving external shocks to solvency and endogenous liquidity shocks arising from these solvency shocks. We define the concept of “Liquidity at Risk”, which quantifies the liquidity resources required for a financial institution facing a stress scenario. Finally, we show that the interaction of liquidity and solvency may lead to the amplification of equity losses due to funding costs which arise from liquidity needs.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Rama Cont","Artur Kotlicki","Laura Valderrama"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105871","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ab41750d02a44b3d","title":"Controlling inflation with timid monetary–fiscal regime changes","abstract":"Can monetary policy control inflation when both monetary and fiscal policies change over time? When monetary policy is active, a long‐run fiscal principle entails flexibility in fiscal policy that preserves determinacy even when deviating from passive fiscal, substantially for brief periods or timidly for prolonged periods. In order to guarantee a unique equilibrium, monetary and fiscal policies must coordinate not only within but also across regimes, and not simply on being active or passive, but also on their extent. The amplitude of deviations from the active monetary/passive fiscal benchmark determines whether a regime is Ricardian: Timid deviations do not imply wealth effects.","wordCount":102,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Guido Ascari","Anna Florio","Alessandro Gobbi"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12447","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ab450ff4c3d566ac","title":"The ‘New’ national development planning and global development goals: Processes and partnerships","abstract":"The number of countries with a national development plan has more than doubled, from about 62 in 2006 to 134 in 2018. More than 80 per cent of the global population now lives in a country with a national development plan of one form or another. This is a stunning recovery of a practice that had been discredited in the 1980s and 1990s as a relic of directed economies and state-led development. Several factors have fostered this re-emergence but from about 2015 the momentum for producing plans has accelerated, driven in part by a need to plan for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Based on an analysis of 107 national development plans, and drawing insights from 10 case study countries, this paper analyses ‘new’ national development planning and identifies the types and content of the plans, and their implications for the sustainable development agenda. The paper generates a typology of the new national plans, analyses their characteristics and explores the ways in which the new national development planning and the SDGs may interact. The study finds greater ownership and political control of the processes leading to plan production. It also finds that the plans vary in terms of the evidence used, the degree of internal consistency between different parts of the same plan, the process of developing the plan (inclusive or elite-driven), and the extent to which they are clear on how they will be financed. In contrast to 20th-century national development plans the new-generation plans are often underpinned by theories of collaborative rationality rather than by linear rationality. This new generation of national plans has been neglected by academic researchers and merits much greater examination, especially to understand the ways in which their implementation can enhance the achievement of the SDGs.","wordCount":292,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Admos Chimhowu","David Hulme","Lauchlan T. Munro"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.03.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ab4c11f2ee73d07b","title":"Trade liberalization and the environment: Evidence from NAFTA and U.S. manufacturing","abstract":"The unobserved responses of individual polluters are often used to rationalize the aggregate effects of international trade on the environment. In this paper, I provide the first evidence of these responses. I estimate the effects of NAFTA on the emissions of particulate matter (PM10) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from manufacturing plants in the United States. My findings suggest that trade liberalization led to significant reductions of these pollutants at affected plants. On average, nearly two-thirds of the reductions in PM10 and SO2 emissions from the U.S. manufacturing sector between 1994 and 1998 can be attributed to trade liberalization following NAFTA.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Jevan Cherniwchan"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ab54eb3cf3d546fe","title":"Women’s empowerment and nutrition status: The case of iron deficiency in India","abstract":"In this paper we study the relationship between women’s empowerment in agriculture and their iron deficiency status in Maharashtra, India. This is the first time the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) has been used in association with explicit measurement of medical biomarkers for women’s iron deficiency status. Using primary data for 960 women we find that the log odds of a poor iron status in women decline as women’s empowerment levels in agriculture improve. Further, this decline is seen in the presence of multiple dietary diversity measures (dietary diversity score, share of rice and wheat in the diet, total iron intake and iron intake from iron-rich food groups – all for 24-h and 30-day recalls) suggesting that in addition to dietary pathways women’s empowerment can play a role in addressing micronutrient deficiencies like those of iron in a vulnerable sub-group of the population. It also reinforces the need to move away from the ‘staple grain fundamentalism’ that has characterized agricultural policy in India, towards more nutrition-sensitive food systems.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Soumya Gupta","Prabhu Pingali","Per Pinstrup‐Andersen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101763","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ab7abb25bf5c7ae3","title":"CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth: Determining the stability of the 3E relationship","abstract":"This study analyzed the stability of the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth among a sample of 31 countries. Our results revealed the presence of structural breaks in this relationship, with the Great Recession playing an important role. Once these breaks were considered, we observed that most of the countries decoupled the level of CO2 emissions from their economic growth, with more striking evidence among advanced economies. Although emerging markets have made progress, their levels of decoupling were lower. Conversely, we found that the relationship between CO2 emissions and energy consumption intensified, implying that the countries have maintained consumption patterns that remain somewhat carbon-intensive. This also indicates that additional efforts are necessary for finding cleaner methods of energy production and achieving more sustainable economies.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["M. González-Álvarez","Antonio Montañés"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106195","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ab8951f37ae0d76c","title":"Tax evasion on a social network","abstract":"We relate tax evasion behavior to a substantial literature on social comparison in judgements. Taxpayers engage in tax evasion as a means to boost their expected consumption relative to others in their social network. The unique Nash equilibrium of the model relates optimal evasion to a (Bonacich) measure of network centrality: more central taxpayers evade more. Given that tax authorities are now investing heavily in big-data tools that aim to construct social networks, we investigate the value of acquiring network information. We do this using networks that allow for celebrity taxpayers, whose consumption is seen widely, and who are systematically of higher wealth. We show that there are pronounced returns to the initial acquisition of network information, especially in the presence of celebrity taxpayers.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Duccio Gamannossi degl’Innocenti","Matthew D. Rablen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.11.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ab8c7c5b018e0998","title":"Low Paid Employment in Britain: Estimating State‐Dependence and Stepping Stone Effects","abstract":"Using 18 waves of the British Household Panel Study, this paper examines state‐dependence and stepping stone effects of low pay. The results show that both state‐dependence and stepping stone effects of low pay are present. However, there is no evidence to support a low‐pay no‐pay cycle. The introduction of the national minimum wage does not appear to have affected state‐dependence and stepping stone effects of low pay.","wordCount":67,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Lixin Cai","Kostas Mavromaras","Peter J. Sloane"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12197","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ab995b631ff01bec","title":"Who's the deceiver? Identifying deceptive intentions in communication","abstract":"Recognizing people's deceptive intentions when communicating is crucial to detect statements that may drive us to unintended harmful decisions. This paper studies individuals' intentions in games where players can tell the truth with deceiving purposes. In a preregistered experiment, we combine a sender-receiver game with possible strategic considerations and the associated belief elicitation questionnaire, with a sender-receiver game with no room for strategic considerations. We propose a new method that improves the identification of senders' intentions to deceive. Our findings reveal that relying solely on the strategic sender-receiver game and the elicited beliefs, as previously proposed in the literature, can lead to misinterpreting the actual intentions of a substantial proportion of senders. In particular, our new method helps discern actual deceivers from pessimistic truth-tellers and identifies senders who try to excuse their previous deceiving message. All in all, our method identifies more senders with deceptive intentions compared to previous methods.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Juan Francisco Blazquiz-Pulido","Luca Polonio","Ennio Bilancini"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.02.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aba443e39f386251","title":"Symmetry in n-player games","abstract":"This paper regards symmetry in games with more than two players. It is often said that a two-player game is symmetric if it looks the same to both players. However, there are n-player games, such as Salop's circle model, that seem intuitively to look the same to all players, but do not meet the common definition of a symmetric n-player game. This paper proposes a more general symmetry condition that is satisfied by such models. Previous authors have established that games which are symmetric in the common sense have a number of useful properties relating to equilibrium characterization and comparative statics. With few exceptions, those properties continue to hold in the richer class of games that meet the symmetry condition proposed here.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Asaf Plan"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105549","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-aba87629bc1bea49","title":"Elites and the expansion of education in nineteenth‐century Sweden","abstract":"A large literature emphasizes that elite capture of political institutions hampered the spread of mass schooling in the nineteenth and twentieth century. We collect new data on investments in elementary education and the distribution of voting rights for more than 2,000 local governments in nineteenth‐century Sweden and document that educational expenditure was higher where the distribution of political power was more unequal. In particular, areas governed by local landed elites—even those where a single landowner had de jure dictatorial powers—invested substantially more in mass schooling relative to areas where political power was more widely shared, or where it lay in the hands of capitalist elites. Our findings lend quantitative support to an earlier literature produced by economic and social historians which argues that landed elites advanced mass schooling as part of their historical role as patrons of the local community and as a response to the increasing proletarianization of the rural population, while also furthering our understanding of how Sweden maintained a high level of human capital despite its low level of economic development and restricted franchise in the nineteenth century.","wordCount":181,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Jens Andersson","Thor Berger"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12738","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-abc4d9c4aaa976ce","title":"The impact of AI on carbon emissions: evidence from 66 countries","abstract":"This study aims to address debate in previous studies on whether AI has a positive or negative effect on carbon emission reduction. We used quantile regression and PSTR models to study the diverse impacts of AI on carbon emissions in 66 countries from 1993–2019. There were three main findings in this paper. First, the impact of AI on carbon emissions varies across countries, and its effect on carbon reduction is mainly found in high-carbon emission and high-income countries. Second, the industrial structure environment of different countries affects the role of AI in carbon reduction, with its marginal effect in limiting emissions decreasing with the rise of secondary industrial structures. Third, the impact of AI varies in countries based on their different demographic structures. The marginal effect of AI on carbon emission reduction increases in places with older populations. This study offers unique insight into the heterogeneous impact of AI on CO2 emissions. Our analysis confirms the importance of industrial and demographic structures in promoting carbon emission reduction. We provide effective policy recommendations for economic development and environmental governance.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Junhao Zhong","Yilin Zhong","Minghui Han","Tianjian Yang","Qinghua Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2203461","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-abd2292dbafff333","title":"Policy spillovers in the regulation of multiple pollutants","abstract":"We analyze the interplay between policies aimed to control transboundary and local pollutants such as greenhouse gases and particulate matter. The two types of pollution interact in the abatement cost function of the polluting firms through economies or diseconomies of scope. They are regulated by distinct entities, potentially with different instruments that are designed according to some specific agenda. We show that the choice of regulatory instrument and the timing of the regulations matter for efficiency. Emissions of the local pollutant are distorted if the regulators anticipate that transboundary pollution will later be regulated through emission caps. The regulation is too stringent with diseconomies of scope, and not enough with economies of scope. In contrast, we obtain efficiency if the transboundary pollutant is regulated by emission taxes or tradable emission permits provided that the revenue from taxing emissions are redistributed to the countries in a lump-sum way and that the initial allocation of tradable emission permits is not linked to abatement costs.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Stéfan Ambec","Jessica Coria"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.05.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-abd37bb5197e6fea","title":"The Determinants of Redistribution Around The World","abstract":"This paper reexamines the determinants of redistribution in light of improved data and methods relative to earlier literature. In particular, we use the latest version of the UNU‐WIDER’s Income Inequality Database to have the best available estimates of both pre‐ and post‐redistribution inequality for the largest set of countries and periods. We tackle head‐on problems related to model specification that risk generating large biases in estimates because of mechanical associations between the dependent and explanatory variables. The results suggest that the bias in the earlier work can be substantial. The descriptive analysis highlights, in addition, how scarce the data are when it comes to information about the extent of redistribution in developing countries.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Markus Jäntti","Jukka Pirttilä","Risto Rönkkö"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12406","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-abd75e55566c1ce3","title":"The urban economics of retail","abstract":"Using property-level data from 327 larger shopping areas in the Netherlands, we show that the spatial structure of a shopping area resembles a monocentric city in miniature. Just like a monocentric city, a shopping area has a pronounced centre where the rents are the highest and the vacancy the lowest, and a negative retail rent gradient from this centre to the edges. The average retail rent gradient is −17% per 100 m distance, and the vacancy is one and a half times higher at the edge than in the centre. Our model gives insights into how shopping areas respond to downfall in demand, both in the short and long run. Our data, covering the Great Recession, from 2009 to 2012, lend support to these predictions.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Ioulia V. Ossokina","Jan Sviták","Coen N. Teulings"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104026","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-abd9ea2bfa8442b3","title":"Centrality bias in inter-city trade","abstract":"Large cities (central places) excessively export to smaller cities in their surrounding hinterland. Using Japanese inter-city trade data, we identify a substantial centrality bias: Shipments from central places to their hinterland are 50%-125% larger than predicted by gravity forces. This upward bias stems from aggregating across industries, which are hierarchically distributed across large and small cities, and therefore does not arise in sectoral gravity estimations. When decomposing the centrality bias along the margins of our data, we find that the by far largest part of this aggregation bias can be attributed to the extensive industry margin.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Tomoya Mori","Jens Wrona"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104060","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-abde9dab352b5c16","title":"Academic Human Capital in European Countries and Regions, 1200-1793","abstract":"We present new annual time-series data on academic human capital across Europe from 1200 to 1793, constructed by aggregating individual-level measures at three geographic scales: cities, present-day countries (as of 2025), and historically informed macro-regions. Individual human capital is derived from a composite index of publication outcomes, based on data from the Repertorium Eruditorum Totius Europae (RETE) database. The macro-regional classifications are designed to reflect historically coherent entities, offering a more relevant perspective than modern national boundaries. This framework allows us to document key patterns, including the Little Divergence in academic human capital between Northern and Southern Europe, the effect of the Black Death and the Thirty Years' War on academic human capital, the respective contributions of academies and universities, regional inequality within the Holy Roman Empire, and the distinctiveness of the Scottish Enlightenment.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Matthew Curtis","David de la Croix","Filippo Manfredini","Mara Vitale"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101756","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ac02d2a915d5ea0c","title":"COVID-19 implications on household income and food security in Kenya and Uganda: Findings from a rapid assessment","abstract":"This study assessed implications of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic on household income and food security in two East African countries - Kenya and Uganda, using online survey data from 442 respondents. Results show that more than two-thirds of the respondents experienced income shocks due to the COVID-19 crisis. Food security and dietary quality worsened, as measured by the food insecurity experience scale and the frequency of consumption of nutritionally-rich foods. The proportion of food insecure respondents increased by 38% and 44% in Kenya and Uganda respectively, and in both countries, the regular consumption of fruits decreased by about 30% during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to a normal period (before the pandemic). Results from probit regressions show that the income-poor households and those dependent on labour income were more vulnerable to income shock, and had poorer food consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to other respondent categories. As such, they were more likely to employ food-based coping strategies compared to those pursuing alternative livelihoods, who generally relied on savings. Farmers were less likely to experience worsened food security compared to other respondent categories who depended to a great extent on market sources for food. In both countries, participation in national social security schemes was less likely to mitigate respondents' income shock during the COVID-19 period. Conversely, membership in savings and loan groups was correlated with less likelihood of suffering income shocks and reduction in food consumption. The results suggest that ongoing and future government responses should focus on structural changes in social security by developing responsive packages to cushion members pushed into poverty by such pandemics while building strong financial institutions to support the recovery of businesses in the medium term, and ensuring the resilience of food supply chains particularly those making available nutrient-dense foods.","wordCount":296,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Monica K. Kansiime","Justice A. Tambo","Idah Mugambi","Mary Bundi","Augustine M. Kara","Charles Owuor"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105199","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ac09cd2722199de7","title":"Identifying Five Different Perspectives on the Ecosystem Services Concept Using Q Methodology","abstract":"The objective of this paper is to recognize and categorize the various ways that ecosystem services researchers perceive the concept and purpose of ecosystem services (ES). To do so, we employed the discourse analysis approach of Q methodology, where 33 researchers ranked 39 statements on ES derived from the literature. Factor analysis of the Q sorts allowed for the interpretation of five main perspectives on ES: a pragmatic view on nature conservation, seeing ES as useful tool (“Non-Economic Utilitarian”), a strongly value-focused perspective with a skeptical view on ES (“Critical Idealist”), an opposition to a utilitarian approach to nature conservation but seeing ES as more encompassing approach (“Anti-Utilitarian”), a focus on a methodological rather than a critical approach to ES (“Methodologist”), and a rather economic approach to environmental decision-making, in which ES is a useful tool (“Moderate Economist”). We see this plurality as illustrating both the potential of the ES concept to serve as a boundary object for collaboration, but also the threat of ineffective collaboration due to the lack of a common conceptual ground. However, as pluralism can be fruitful if handled transparently, we suggest the need for open dialogue about underlying assumptions when using a value-laden concept like ES.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Verena Hermelingmeier","Kimberly A. Nicholas"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.01.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ac0c65bb1ed4be79","title":"How to explain corporate investment heterogeneity in China's new normal: Structural models with state-owned property rights","abstract":"This paper studies corporate investment and its structural change by the view of state-owned property right. By constructing dynamic investment decision-making model, we find corporate investment heterogeneity in China due to their different dynamic shifts of objective functions, demonstrated by our simulations. Empirical tests imply that the expansion of investment improves financial performance, but does not play a positive role on solving social employment. POEs expanded investment much more than SOEs did, even in the transitional period, but both of them reduced their investment significantly in new normal. Mechanisms are explored by 3-stage structural models for non-matched control group and nearest neighbor PSM matched control group. Although investment inefficiency of SOEs are concerned, executive stock ownership and equity finance could be exotic methods to stimulate efficient investment. Investment efficiency of POEs has been recovered in new normal but POEs have shifted away from ‘profit-driving’ they used to be in the old normal.","wordCount":152,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Jinchuan Shi","Xiaoqian Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.10.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ac236fe3718381d4","title":"Place-Based Interventions at Scale: The Direct and Spillover Effects of Policing and City Services on Crime","abstract":"In 2016, the city of Bogotá doubled police patrols and intensified city services on high-crime streets. They did so based on a criminological consensus that such place-based programs not only decrease crime, but also have beneficial spillovers for nearby streets. To test this, we worked with Bogotá to experiment on an unprecedented scale. We randomly assigned 1,919 streets to either 8 months of doubled police patrols, greater municipal services, both, or neither. Such scale brings econometric challenges. Spatial spillovers in dense networks introduce bias and complicate variance estimation through “fuzzy clustering”. But a design-based approach and randomization inference produce valid hypothesis tests in such settings. In contrast to the consensus, we find intensifying state presence did not generate substantively meaningful or statistically significant reductions in crime. Our estimates suggest modest direct effects but with crime displaced nearby, especially property crimes. Confidence intervals suggest we can rule out total reductions in crime of more than 2% from the two interventions.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Christopher Blattman","Donald P. Green","Daniel Ortega","Santiago Tobón"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab002","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac280eb58d78c64e","title":"Platform, Anonymity, and Illegal Actors: Evidence of Whac-a-Mole Enforcement from Airbnb","abstract":"Airbnb, a prominent sharing-economy platform, offers dwellings for short-term rent. Despite restrictions, some sellers illegally offer their accommodations, taking advantage of a degree of anonymity proffered by the platform to hide from potential enforcement. We study the extent to which enforcement works in Manhattan, one of the most active short-term rental markets, by testing the effects of two recent enforcement events. We find a negative effect on the number of entire-home listings in Manhattan and positive effects on the prices and occupancies of remaining listings following each enforcement event, which suggests that some illegal listings are withdrawn from the market. We demonstrate evidence suggesting that a portion of withdrawn listings reenter the market under the less enforced listing category of private rooms.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Jian Jia","Liad Wagman"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/709243","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac487da9b7fd0e72","title":"Top Income Adjustments and Inequality: An Investigation of the EU‐SILC<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"This paper provides a novel assessment of how the World Inequality Database (WID) top income adjustment applied by Blanchet, Chancel, and Gethin (2021) to European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU‐SILC) data for 26 countries over 2003–2017 for Distributional National Accounts purposes affects inequality in equivalized gross and disposable household income. On average, the Gini is increased by around 2.4 points for both gross and disposable income, with notable differences across countries but limited impact on trends. EU‐SILC countries that rely on administrative register data see relatively small effects on inequality. Comparing with two other recent studies, differences in impacts on measured inequality depend less on the adjustment method and more on whether external data sources are used.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Rafael Carranza","Marc Morgan","Brian Nolan"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12591","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ac5c8a1f644dc284","title":"Determinants of the global and regional CO<sub>2</sub> emissions: What causes what and where?","abstract":"Using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and an unbalanced panel dataset of 128 countries covering 1990–2014, this study aims to examine the key impact factors (KIFs) of the global and regional carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and analyse the effectiveness of non-renewable and renewable energies. Given the potential cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity is applied. The overall estimations imply that the KIFs at the global level are economic growth, followed by population size, non-renewable energy, and energy intensity in order of their impacts on CO2 emissions; conversely, the KIFs at the regional level vary across different regions and estimators. The results also suggest that renewable energy can lead to a decline in CO2 emissions at the global level. At the regional level, only for two regions (i.e., S. & Cent. America and Europe & Eurasia) renewable energy has a significant and negative effect on CO2 emissions, which may be affected by the share of renewable energy consumption in the primary energy mix. Finally, the results indicate varied causality relationships among the variables across regions.Abbreviations: AMG: Augmented mean group; BP: British Petroleum; BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa; CCEMG: Common correlated effects mean group; CD: Cross-section dependence; CIPS: Cross-sectionally augmented Im, Pesaran, and Shin; CO2: Carbon dioxide; PS: Population size; D-H: Dumitrescu-Hurlin; EI: Energy intensity; EU: European Union; EU-5: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom; Europe & Eurasia, Europe and Eurasia; GDP: Gross domestic product; IEA: International Energy Agency; KIF: Key impact factor; LM: Lagrange multiplier; Mtoe, Million tonnes oil equivalent; NRE: Non-renewable energy; RE: Renewable energy; S. & Cent. America, South and Central America; STIRPAT: Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology; VECM: Vector error correction model; WDI: World Development Indicators","wordCount":305,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Kangyin Dong","Xiucheng Dong","Cong Dong"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1606410","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac5cade753c1eecb","title":"The political economy of drug and alcohol regulation during the<scp>COVID</scp>‐19 pandemic","abstract":"States tightly regulate access to alcohol and other substances. During the pandemic and related state of emergency, state and federal governments adopted a variety of regulations affecting this access. State shelter-in-place orders included decisions about whether liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries are essential businesses. Decisions about telehealth access to medical marijuana or treatments for substance use disorders were made at the state and federal levels. This article examines the political economy behind these decisions, focusing on deviations from the norm including Pennsylvania's decision to close state-run liquor stores. Interest groups and other political considerations help explain state and federal policy changes affecting access to alcohol and other substances.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Audrey Redford","Angela K. Dills"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12496","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac60d99b95217820","title":"School Segregation and Racial Gaps in Special Education Identification","abstract":"We use linked birth and education records from Florida to investigate how the identification of childhood disabilities varies by race and school racial composition. Using a series of decompositions, we find that black and Hispanic students are identified with disabilities at lower rates than are observationally similar white students. Black and Hispanic students are overidentified in schools with relatively small shares of minorities and substantially underidentified in schools with large minority shares. Our results are consistent with a heightened awareness among school officials of disabilities in students who are racially and ethnically distinct from the majority race in the school.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Todd E. Elder","David Figlio","Scott Imberman","Claudia Persico"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711421","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac65d8b980090417","title":"Top Incomes in Chile: A Historical Perspective on Income Inequality, 1964–2017","abstract":"We present a novel series of Chilean top‐income shares covering half a century, mainly based on income‐tax declarations and the National Accounts. Such a time frame of analysis is still rare in the literature of developing countries. We distinguish between a fiscal‐income series (1964–2017) and an adjusted series (1990–2017). The former covers individual income, while the latter also includes corporate undistributed profits, which affects both levels and trends. The fiscal‐income estimates start with low levels and a decreasing trend over the 1960s. They then increase rapidly during the dictatorship years (1973–89). The series ends with a high, yet slowly decreasing, concentration for most of the recent democratic period (1990–2017). By contrast, the adjusted series has followed a U‐shape since the return of democracy, contradicting the established consensus on falling inequality over the period. Furthermore, Chile ranks among the most unequal countries in both the OECD and Latin American countries over the period.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Ignacio Flores","Claudia Sanhueza","Jorge Atria","Ricardo Mayer"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12441","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac6d0b1e27b84980","title":"Incredible commitment: Influence accumulation, consensus-making, and the collapse of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth","abstract":"I aim to explain the petrification of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth's parliament due to the veto in the 17th and 18th centuries. I study genealogical data on senatorial ancestors and identify the formation of an oligarchic elite. I propose that the accumulation of influence by powerful individuals undermined their vested interest in the state's continuation. This weakened the elite's ability to credibly commit to political agreements, reach consensus, and sustain the extractive regime. I argue that the overly limited king failed to act as an arbiter in oligarchic disputes. This challenges the conventional view regarding the benefits of limited royal authority.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Mikołaj Malinowski"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101633","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ac7b004244e83ba1","title":"Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning","abstract":"We perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problem of empirical asset pricing: measuring asset risk premiums. We demonstrate large economic gains to investors using machine learning forecasts, in some cases doubling the performance of leading regression-based strategies from the literature. We identify the best-performing methods (trees and neural networks) and trace their predictive gains to allowing nonlinear predictor interactions missed by other methods. All methods agree on the same set of dominant predictive signals, a set that includes variations on momentum, liquidity, and volatility.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Shihao Gu","Bryan Kelly","Dacheng Xiu"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa009","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac7d9bf626e01313","title":"Exporting Out of Agriculture: The Impact of WTO Accession on Structural Transformation in China","abstract":"This paper analyzes the effect of China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 on structural transformation at the local level, exploiting cross-sectional variation in tariff uncertainty faced by county economies pre-2001. Using a new panel of 1,800 Chinese counties from 1996 to 2013, we find that counties more exposed to the reduction in tariff uncertainty postaccession are characterized by increased exports and foreign direct investment, shrinking agricultural sectors, expanding secondary sectors, and higher total and per capita GDP. In addition, when labor substitutes from nonagricultural to agricultural production in counties exposed to positive trade shocks, agricultural output declines.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Bilge Erten","Jessica Leight"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00852","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac847af19744cff4","title":"Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption","abstract":"Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Bruno Albuquerque","Georgi Krustev"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12265","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ac88d30b7ff7d63c","title":"Medical innovation and its diffusion: Implications for economic performance and welfare","abstract":"We study the impact on economic performance and welfare of medical innovations and their endogenous diffusion. We construct a general equilibrium model with a medical sector and overlapping generations subject to endogenous mortality and calibrate it to reflect the development of the US economy and health care over the cardiac revolution during the 1980s and 1990s. By counterfactual analysis we find that (i) medical innovations have increased welfare without compromising GDP growth; (ii) there is a sizeable welfare loss due to the adoption lag involved with imperfect diffusion; and (iii) there is scope for Pareto improvement by way of subsidization of innovative health care.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Ivan Frankovic","Michael Kühn","Stefan Wrzaczek"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103262","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ac8b9850d8cc6e4f","title":"Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise","abstract":"When monetary and fiscal policy are conducted as in the euro area, output, inflation, and government bond default premia are indeterminate according to a standard sticky-price general equilibrium model extended to include defaultable public debt. With sunspots, the model mimics the recent euro area data. We specify an alternative configuration of monetary and fiscal policy, with a non-defaultable eurobond. If this policy arrangement had been in place since the onset of the Great Recession, output could have been much higher than in the data with inflation in line with the ECB's objective.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Marek Jarociński","Bartosz Maćkowiak"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.12.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ac9032192f74725e","title":"The impact of bank regulation on firms’ capital structure: Evidence from multinationals","abstract":"This paper examines how the capital structure of non-financial firms is affected by international variation in bank regulation. A concise model yields an estimating equation that relates a firm's capital structure to bank regulatory variables and their interactions with the tax rate reflecting the tax deductibility of interest. We identify an effect of bank regulation on leverage by considering establishments of the same multinational firm located in different countries. Our results indicate that capital regulation stringency and official supervisory power are negatively related to firm leverage, while restrictions on non-lending activities and on financial conglomerates vary positively with firm leverage. High tax rates mitigate these effects.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Lucas Avezum","Harry Huizinga","Louis Raes"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106459","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ac909e563f5fddb8","title":"Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined","abstract":"Since the 1950s, we have known that the presence of zero-valued dependent variables can seriously bias econometric estimates whether the zeros are included or excluded. Yet the widely-used gravity model is frequently estimated on samples that include large fractions of zeros. An influential paper by Santos Silva and Tenreyro – based on simulations that include no economically-determined zeros – concludes that the bias problems resulting from zeros and those resulting from heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity can be solved using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) model including the zero values. This paper begins by adapting the Santos Silva and Tenreyro experimental design to include economically-determined zeros to see whether this conclusion continues to hold. With this design, it finds that alternative estimators have lower bias than PPML. Changing to a Monte Carlo design that replicates the much-higher real-world frequency of predicted values near zero restores the finding of lower bias with the PPML estimator. The results highlight the need for very careful design of Monte Carlo experiments when evaluating alternative estimators of the gravity model.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Will Martín","Cong S. Pham"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1687838","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aca43837373199ec","title":"The heterogeneous incidence of fuel carbon taxes: Evidence from station-level data","abstract":"We use station-level price data and a significant diesel fuel carbon tax reform to study who bears the economic burden of fuel carbon taxes. We use a difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the pass-through of the large carbon tax increase to retail prices, where we compare retail diesel prices faced by private motorists to retail gasoline prices. We find that on average fuel carbon taxes are less than fully passed through to consumer prices, which suggests that consumers and the supply chain split the burden of these taxes. Using information on station location, we match price observations with postcode-level average incomes and measures of urbanization, and show that there are significant differences in the pass-through rate across areal incomes and between rural and urban areas up to one year after the reform. The effect of fuel carbon taxes on consumer prices decreases with areal income and with the degree of urbanization.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Jarkko Harju","Tuomas Kosonen","Marita Laukkanen","Kimmo Palanne"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102607","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aca5713ee8e91d58","title":"Incomplete Information Games with Ambiguity Averse Players","abstract":"We study incomplete information games with ambiguity averse players. Our focus is on equilibrium concepts satisfying sequential optimality—each player’s strategy is optimal at each information set given opponents’ strategies. We show sequential optimality, which does not make any explicit assumption on updating, is equivalent to sequential optimality with respect to beliefs updated using a particular generalization of Bayesian updating. Ambiguity aversion expands the set of equilibria compatible with players sharing common ambiguous beliefs. We connect ambiguity aversion with belief robustness. Examples illustrate new strategic behavior, including strategic use of ambiguity, under ambiguity aversion.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Eran Hanany","Peter Klibanoff","Sujoy Mukerji"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180302","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-acb0e6f32f7b4a93","title":"Innovation vs. imitation and the evolution of productivity distributions","abstract":"We develop a tractable dynamic model of productivity growth and technology spillovers that is consistent with the emergence of real world empirical productivity distributions. Firms can improve productivity by engaging in in-house research and developmenmt (R&D) or, alternatively, by trying to imitate other firms' technologies, subject to the limits of their absorptive capacities. The outcome of both strategies is stochastic. The choice between in-house R&D and imitation is endogenous, and is based on firms' profit maximization motive. Firms closer to the technological frontier face fewer imitation opportunities, and choose in-house R&D, while firms farther from the frontier try to imitate more productive technologies. The resulting balanced-growth equilibrium features persistent productivity differences even when starting from ex ante identical firms. The long-run productivity distribution can be described as a traveling wave with tails following a Pareto distribution as can be observed in the empirical data.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Michael König","Jan Lorenz","Fabrizio Zilibotti"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1437","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-acb1a81e5839cc47","title":"Why Do Sectoral Employment Programs Work? Lessons from WorkAdvance","abstract":"This paper examines the evidence from randomized evaluations of sector-focused training programs that target low-wage workers and combine up-front screening, occupational and soft-skills training, and wraparound services. The programs generate substantial and persistent earnings gains (12%–34%) following training. Theoretical mechanisms for program impacts are explored for the WorkAdvance demonstration. Earnings gains are generated by getting participants into higher-wage jobs in higher-earning industries and occupations, not just by raising employment. Training in transferable and certifiable skills (likely underprovided from poaching concerns) and reductions of employment barriers to high-wage sectors for nontraditional workers appear to play key roles.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Lawrence F. Katz","Jonathan Roth","Richard Hendra","Kelsey Schaberg"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717932","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-acca9bb98d49663d","title":"A Cautionary Tale About Control Variables in IV Estimation","abstract":"Many instrumental variable (IV) regressions include control variables to justify (conditional) independence of the instrument and the potential outcomes. The plausibility of conditional IV independence crucially depends on the timing when the control variables are determined. This paper works through different IV models and discusses the (conditions for the) satisfaction of conditional IV independence depending on whether the control variables are measured prior to or after instrument assignment. To illustrate the identification issues, we consider the Vietnam War draft risk as instrument either for veteran status or education to evaluate the effects of these variables on labour market and health outcomes. Our empirical analysis based on the ‘Young Men in High School and Beyond’ survey suggests that commonly used conditional IV strategies to estimate the impact of draft induced military service or education may be severely biased due to the use of improper controls.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Eva Deuchert","Martin Huber"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12177","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-acd43a55d8bfdc2e","title":"Bank regulation and supervision: A symbiotic relationship","abstract":"Supervisory assessments such as stress-tests gauge banks’ riskiness and allow regulators to impose bank-specific capital regulation. This can improve welfare. Yet, regulation based on noisy supervision can decrease welfare by mis-classifying banks, distorting incentives, and crucially, leading to greater risk taking. Regulation should not be bank-specific in such cases. When bank defaults are costlier, supervision should strive for lower probability that riskier banks go undetected, i.e., reduce false-negatives even if this causes more false-positives. When the supervisor can incur a cost to optimally reduce both false-positive and false-negative rates, the regulator should make capital requirements more bank specific.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Isha Agarwal","Tirupam Goel"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107185","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-acdbc97ef0dc7852","title":"International spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in Germany","abstract":"The pollution/energy leakage literature raises the concern that policies implemented in one country, such as a carbon tax or tight energy restrictions, might simply result in the reallocation of energy use to other countries. Our research addresses these concerns in the context of policies to increase energy efficiency, rather than direct action to reduce energy use. Using a global CGE simulation model, we extend the analyses of ‘economy-wide’ rebound from the national focus of previous studies to incorporate international spill-over effects from trade in goods and services. Our focus is to investigate whether these effects have the potential to increase or reduce the overall (global) rebound of local energy efficiency improvements. In the case we consider, increased energy efficiency in German production generates changes in comparative advantage that produce negative leakage effects, thereby actually rendering global rebound less than national rebound. The presentation at the ENTRACTE workshop will focus in particular on downward pressures on economy-wide rebound effects that result more generally from changes in competitiveness as well as the capacity and pricing decisions of energy suppliers.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Simon Koesler","Kim Swales","Karen Turner"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.12.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-acdffe63bf34f52e","title":"Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting","abstract":"We show that the failure to recover increases support for authoritarian right-wing parties. A growing literature has highlighted the role of economic grievances, global transformations, cultural cleavages and long-term trends of isolation and decline in engendering political discontent. However, this literature is silent on the potential role of unanticipated local shocks in fuelling support for authoritarian parties. We fill this gap by using comprehensive data at a fine spatial scale and a comparative natural experiment approach. Our study documents that the occurrence of two destructive earthquakes in Italy resulted in sharply diverging electoral outcomes: while the 2012 Emilia quake did not alter voting behaviour, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake paved the way for an impressive and persistent authoritarian backlash in the most affected areas. Such heterogeneous patterns originate from a stark contrast in post-disaster reconstruction processes and shifts in institutional trust. These findings suggest that valence issues generated from local shocks can turn “places that don't recover” into authoritarian hotbeds.","wordCount":159,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Augusto Cerqua","Chiara Ferrante","Marco Letta"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104464","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-acea4aa7ee37fc9d","title":"Quantity and quality of childcare and children’s educational outcomes","abstract":"Policy-makers wanting to support child development can choose to adjust the quantity or quality of publicly funded universal pre-school. To assess the impact of such changes, we estimate the effects of an increase in free pre-school education in England of about 3.5 months at age 3 on children’s school achievement at age 5. We exploit date-of-birth discontinuities that create variation in the length and starting age of free pre-school using administrative school records linked to nursery characteristics. Estimated effects are small overall, but the impact of the additional term is substantially larger in settings with the highest inspection quality rating but not in settings with highly qualified staff. Estimated effects fade out by age 7.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Jo Blanden","Emilia Del Bono","Kirstine Hansen","Birgitta Rabe"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00835-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-acf10922d73a48b3","title":"The Importance of Product Reformulation Versus Consumer Choice in Improving Diet Quality","abstract":"Improving diet quality has been a target of public health policy. Governments have encouraged consumers to make healthier food choices and firms to reformulate food products. Evaluation of such policies has focused on the impact on consumer behaviour; firm behaviour has been less well studied. We show that the recent decline in dietary salt intake in the UK was entirely attributable to product reformulation; consumer switching between products worked in the opposite direction and led to a slight increase in grocery salt intensity. These findings point to the important role that firms can play in achieving public policy goals.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Rachel Griffith","Martin O’Connell","Kate Smith"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12192","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-acf2ee12dddb95de","title":"The Limits of Limited Liability: Evidence from Industrial Pollution","abstract":"We study how parent liability for subsidiaries' environmental cleanup costs affects industrial pollution and production. Our empirical setting exploits a Supreme Court decision that strengthened parent limited liability protection for some subsidiaries. Using a difference‐in‐differences framework, we find that stronger liability protection for parents leads to a 5% to 9% increase in toxic emissions by subsidiaries. Evidence suggests the increase in pollution is driven by lower investment in abatement technologies rather than increased production. Cross‐sectional tests suggest convexities associated with insolvency and executive compensation drive heterogeneous effects. Overall, our findings highlight the moral hazard problem associated with limited liability.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Pat Akey","Ian Appel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12978","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-acf5db3d3c3a9bd4","title":"Social assimilation and immigrants’ labour market outcomes","abstract":"We analyse how immigrants’ level of social assimilation is related to their labour market outcomes. More precisely, we estimate the association between assimilation and employment, wages, underemployment, three measures of job satisfaction, overeducation and wages. Using Australian longitudinal data, we find that assimilation is strongly associated with employment and wages as well as a number of job satisfaction measures. We then split our data and repeat the analysis for before and after the financial crisis of 2008–2009. We find important differences in the way assimilation is associated with different measures of labour market outcomes under different economic conditions. Finally, we explore mechanisms that may underlie the results.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Matloob Piracha","Massimiliano Tani","Zhiming Cheng","Ben Zhe Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00883-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-acfba740a1f593e8","title":"Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter","abstract":"Here’s why. (a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (b) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (c) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice. (d) There is a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t on the four most recent values as of date t - h achieves all the objectives sought by users of the HP filter with none of its drawbacks.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["James D. Hamilton"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00706","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ad020e88c07bb29d","title":"Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk","abstract":"By analyzing 20 developed economies over 1920–2012, we find the following evidence of overoptimism and neglect of crash risk by bank equity investors during credit expansions: (i) bank credit expansion predicts increased bank equity crash risk, but despite the elevated crash risk, also predicts lower mean bank equity returns in subsequent one to three years; (ii) conditional on bank credit expansion of a country exceeding a 95th percentile threshold, the predicted excess return for the bank equity index in subsequent three years is −37.3%; and (iii) bank credit expansion is distinct from equity market sentiment captured by dividend yield and yet dividend yield and credit expansion interact with each other to make credit expansion a particularly strong predictor of lower bank equity returns when dividend yield is low.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Matthew Baron","Wei Xiong"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx004","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ad056b8b073726e2","title":"Econometric evaluation of the China–US trade war effects","abstract":"The escalating trade war between China and the US, initiated in 2018, has significantly impacted the trade pattern of these two nations. This event can be treated as an intervention which has led to a series of retaliatory actions, resulting in substantial economic and trade frictions between the two largest economies. This paper aims to analyze the economic impacts of the trade war effects using advanced econometric techniques. Our empirical study employs panel data analysis combined with a factor model, inspired by the methodologies of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) and Bai, Li and Ouyang (2014), to construct trade patterns for both China and the US. By using annual trade data from multiple countries as a control group, we construct counterfactual results for China’s and the US’s imports, exports, and trade balance, respectively. Under a nonstationary setting, the counterfactual results indicate a significant decline in China’s exports and a notable reduction in its trade surplus with the US post-2018. Meanwhile, US imports from China decreased, aligning with the trade war’s goal of reducing the trade deficit, while US exports to China unexpectedly increased, possibly influenced by the Phase One trade agreement. We also perform a dynamic permutation test on treatment effects over time, which ensures the rigor and significance of our analysis, reinforcing the reliability of the estimated effects. Finally, we conduct an empirical comparative analysis with alternative methods to demonstrate that our chosen approach is particularly well-suited to the context of this study.","wordCount":244,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Zongwu Cai","Jiaying Li"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102567","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ad0e97014ac3d399","title":"Dynamic Effects of Co-Ethnic Networks on Immigrants’ Economic Success","abstract":"In this paper we investigate how co-ethnic networks affect the economic success of immigrants. Using longitudinal data of immigrants in Germany and including a large set of fixed effects and pre-migration controls to address the possible endogeneity of initial location, we find that immigrants in districts with larger co-ethnic networks are more likely to be employed soon after arrival. This advantage fades after four years, as migrants located in places with smaller co-ethnic networks catch up due to greater human capital investments. These effects appear stronger for lower-skilled immigrants, as well as for refugees and ethnic Germans.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Michèle Battisti","Giovanni Peri","Agnese Romiti"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab036","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ad1d81ed62de5381","title":"Where to look for the morals in markets?","abstract":"There is a heated debate on whether markets erode social responsibility and moral behavior. However, it is a challenging task to identify and measure moral behavior in markets. Based on a theoretical model, we examine in an experiment the relation between trading volume, prices and moral behavior by setting up markets that either impose a negative externality on third parties or not. We find that moral behavior reveals itself in lower trading volume in markets with a negative externality, while prices mostly depend on the market structure. We further investigate individual characteristics that explain trading behavior in markets with negative externalities.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Matthias Sutter","Jürgen Huber","Michael Kirchler","Matthias Stefan","Markus Walzl"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09608-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ad3e3560f1a09c30","title":"What makes cooperation precarious?","abstract":"Although most people are not outright selfish, cooperation frequently fails. Fischbacher and Gächter (2010) explain the well-established decline of contributions in repeated public good games with a genuine imperfection in conditional cooperation. Reanalyzing their data, we offer a more nuanced explanation. Conditional cooperators are nearly perfect, when others cooperate as well. Yet conditional cooperators strongly react to negative experiences, chiefly caused by selfish individuals. These bad experiences are the main driver for the imperfection in conditional cooperation and thus of the downward trend in contributions in repeated public good games.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Christoph Engel","Bettina Rockenbach"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102712","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ad44b1c00d320f45","title":"Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program","abstract":"We evaluate the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that provided intermediaries with sizable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. HAMP increased intensity of renegotiations and prevented a substantial number of foreclosures but reached just one-third of its targeted indebted households. This shortfall was in large part due to low renegotiation intensity of a few large intermediaries and was driven by intermediary-specific factors. Exploiting regional variation in the intensity of program implementation by intermediaries suggests that the program was associated with a lower rate of foreclosures, consumer debt delinquencies, house price declines, and an increase in durable spending.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Sumit Agarwal","Gene Amromin","Itzhak Ben‐David","Souphala Chomsisengphet","Tomasz Piskorski","Amit Seru"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691701","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ad472fe1bfdaf6da","title":"Towards a social cost of carbon with national characteristics","abstract":"The majority of estimates of the social cost of carbon use preference parameters calibrated to data for North America and Europe. We here use statistically representative data for attitudes to time and risk across the world. The social cost of carbon is substantially higher in the global north than in the south. The difference is more pronounced if we count people rather than countries.","wordCount":64,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Jinchi Dong","Richard S.J. Tol","Fangzhi Wang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111977","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ad586c8b22afbcc0","title":"Time Matters: The Carbon Footprint of Everyday Activities in Austria","abstract":"Mitigating climate change to achieve the goal of staying below 2 °C of warming requires urgent reductions of emissions. Demand-side measures mostly focus on the footprints of consumption. Analysing time use can add to understand the carbon implications of everyday life and the potentials and limitations for decarbonising consumption better. We investigate the carbon footprints of everyday activities in Austria. We linked data from the Austrian Time-use Survey and the Austrian Household Budget Survey with the Eora-MRIO for 2009-2010 in order to estimate the household carbon footprints of all time-use activities. We introduce a functional time-use perspective differentiating personal, committed, contracted and free time to investigate the average carbon intensity of activities per hour, for an average day and for the average woman and man. We find that personal time is relatively low-carbon, while household as well as leisure activities show large variation in terms of CO2e footprint/h. The traditional gendered division of labour shapes the time-use patterns of women and men, with implications for their carbon footprints. Further research analysing differences in household size, income, location and availability of infrastructure in their relation to time use is crucial to be able to assess possible pathways towards low carbon everyday life.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Barbara Smetschka","Dominik Wiedenhofer","Claudine Egger","Edeltraud Haselsteiner","Daniel Moran","Veronika Gaube"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106357","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ad671ce38a460b80","title":"Exporting and Firm Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment","abstract":"We conduct a randomized experiment that generates exogenous variation in the access to foreign markets for rug producers in Egypt. Combined with detailed survey data, we causally identify the impact of exporting on firm performance. Treatment firms report 16–26% higher profits and exhibit large improvements in quality alongside reductions in output per hour relative to control firms. These findings do not simply reflect firms being offered higher margins to manufacture high-quality products that take longer to produce. Instead, we find evidence of learning-by-exporting whereby exporting improves technical efficiency. First, treatment firms have higher productivity and quality after controlling for rug specifications. Second, when asked to produce an identical domestic rug using the same inputs and same capital equipment, treatment firms produce higher quality rugs despite no difference in production time. Third, treatment firms exhibit learning curves over time. Finally, we document knowledge transfers with quality increasing most along the specific dimensions that the knowledge pertained to.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["David Atkin","Amit Khandelwal","Adam Osman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx002","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-ad7630ed5d7fd546","title":"Intergenerational mobility in Sweden: a regional perspective","abstract":"I employ high quality register data to present new facts about income mobility in Sweden. The focus of the paper is on regional differences in mobility, using a novel approach based on a multilevel model. This method is well suited when regions differ greatly in population size, as is the case in Sweden. The maximum likelihood estimates are substantially more precise than those obtained by running separate OLS regressions. I find that few regions are statistically significantly different from the Swedish average when measuring mobility in relative terms, while a greater number of regional differences emerge when focusing on absolute outcomes. Compared to growing up in the least favorable region, children from the most favorable region with parents located at the 25th percentile in the income distribution reach higher income ranks corresponding to approximately one monthly salary for an average Swedish worker per year.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Stefanie Heidrich"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-017-0648-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ada0f7c7b357ae72","title":"The measurement of environmental economic inefficiency with pollution-generating technologies","abstract":"This study introduces the measurement of environmental inefficiency from an economic perspective. We develop our proposal using the latest by-production models that consider two separate and parallel technologies: a standard technology generating good outputs, and a polluting technology for the by-production of bad outputs. While research into environmental inefficiency incorporating undesirable or bad outputs from a technological perspective is well established, no significant attempts have been made to extend it to the economic sphere. Based on the definition of net profits, we develop an economic inefficiency measure that accounts for suboptimal behavior in the form of foregone private revenue and environmental cost excess. We show that economic inefficiency can be consistently decomposed according to technical and allocative criteria, considering the two separate technologies and market prices, respectively. We illustrate the empirical implementation of our approach using a dataset on agriculture at the level of US states.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Juan Aparicio","Magdalena Kapelko","José L. Zofío"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2020.101185","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ada3e0159ba5e511","title":"The macroeconomic announcement premium and information environment","abstract":"The findings are consistent with the notion that noisy information environment hampers the effectiveness of learning. The quality of information environment has impact on the market risk premium and the expected risk reduction on macroeconomic announcement days. The risk premium is high when the risk is high as in standard asset pricing models, while the risk premium is low when the prevailing information environment is poor. The same is true for the expected risk reduction. These effects extend to market factor premiums (i.e., the premium associated with market betas) on various sets of portfolios and have a connection with business cycles. The findings are consistent with the notion that poor information environment hampers the effectiveness of learning.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Chu Zhang","Shen Zhao"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.06.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-adaa2c95d9bf9347","title":"Mandatory CSR expenditure and stock market liquidity","abstract":"We investigate the nexus between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and firms' stock market liquidity. Using actual firm-level CSR expenditure data and a quasi-natural experiment setup of a mandated CSR regulation in India, we find that firms complying with the mandate experience significantly higher stock market liquidity, relative to non-CSR firms in the post-CSR mandate period. This effect seems to be more pronounced among CSR firms not affiliated to business groups, with concentrated promoter ownership, with low institutional ownership, with foreign sales and having operations in multiple locations. Further, we find that firms spending more on education and healthcare projects as part of their mandatory CSR engagement have higher stock market liquidity. Our results are in line with the conjecture that mandatory CSR regulation could lead to reduced information asymmetry and improved social and reputational capital, and thus improve the stock market liquidity of CSR firms. Finally, we show that mandated CSR firms, having superior stock market liquidity, obtain higher market valuations in the long run.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Partha P. Roy","Sandeep Rao","Min Zhu"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102158","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-adb642538f1ea68d","title":"Wealth inequality in pre‐industrial England: A long‐term view (late thirteenth to sixteenth centuries)","abstract":"This article provides an overview of wealth inequality in England from the late thirteenth to the sixteenth century, based on a novel database of distributions of taxable household wealth across 17 counties plus London. To account for high thresholds of fiscal exemption, a new method is introduced to reconstruct complete distributions from left‐censored observations. First, we analyse inequality at the county level, finding an impressive stability across time in the relative position of the English counties, perturbed only by the tendency of the South and South‐East to become relatively more inegalitarian. Then, we produce an aggregate distribution representative of England as a whole, and we detect an overall tendency for inequality to grow from medieval to early modern times due largely to North–South divergence in average household wealth. We discuss our results in the light of the recent literature on historical inequality.","wordCount":142,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Guido Alfani","Héctor García Montero"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13158","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-adb7d01efc33e719","title":"Heard the news? Environmental policy and clean investments","abstract":"We build the first news-based index of US environmental and climate policy and examine how it relates to clean investments. Extracting text from ten leading US newspapers over the last four decades, we use text-mining techniques to develop a granular news index of US environmental and climate policy (EnvP) over the 1981–2019 period. Furthermore, we develop a set of additional measures, namely an index of sentiment on environmental policy, as well as various topic-specific indexes. We validate our index by showing that it correctly captures trends and peaks in the evolution of US environmental and climate policy and that it has a meaningful association with clean investments, in line with environmental regulations supporting growing opportunities for clean markets. In firm-level estimations, we find that our index is associated with a greater probability of receiving venture capital (VC) funding for cleantech startups and reduced stock returns for high-emissions firms most exposed to environmental regulations. At the aggregate level, we find in VAR models that a shock in our news-based index of renewable energy policy is associated with an increase in the number of clean energy VC deals and in the assets under management of a benchmark clean energy exchange-traded fund.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Joëlle Noailly","Laura Nowzohour","Matthias van den Heuvel","Ireneu Pla"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105190","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-adbd2f1b4afc36d4","title":"Free ad(vice): internet influencers and disclosure regulation","abstract":"Consumers rely on intermediaries (“influencers”) such as social media recommendations to provide information about products. The advice may be mixed with endorsement in a way that is unobservable to the follower, creating a trade‐off for influencers between the best advice and the most revenue. This article models the dynamic relationship between an influencer and a follower. The relationship evolves between periods of less and more revenue. The model can provide insight into policies such as the Federal Trade Commission's mandatory disclosure rules. An opt‐in policy may be superior: it deregulates influencers who are reaping the rewards of past good advice.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Matthew Mitchell"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12359","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-adbe374ee5d37062","title":"Innovation Diffusion and Strategic Outside Option in a Bargaining Game","abstract":"We develop an optimal licensing model of a product innovation in which the (external) patent holder negotiates sequentially a two-part tariff contract with two potential licensees that have a positive and strategic outside option. We study the role of this strategic outside option in determining technology diffusion and efficiency of the bargaining. Although rich enough contracts allow the solution of the well known opportunism problem, the strategic outside option of the second negotiator implies deviation from industry profit maximization, which reduces the profitability of nonexclusive licensing. As a result, exclusive licensing still prevails under certain conditions. We extend our analysis to assess the profitability for the innovator to integrate vertically with either firm in the market. The internal patent holder always sells the innovation to the rival non-affiliate as a way to co-opt the latter and improve the profits of the former. As a result, vertical integration as compared with vertical separation may imply a positive quality improving effect. The private and social profitability of vertical integration depends on the type of bargaining between the negotiators and on the distribution of their bargaining power.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Cecilia Vergari","Luigi Filippini"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09907-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-add2b23a447f142b","title":"Did closures do any good? Labour productivity, mine dynamics, and rationalization in interwar Ruhr coal mining","abstract":"Throughout the late 1920s, German coal mining saw an exceptional surge in labour productivity, led by the performance of the Ruhr coal mines. It is commonly [journal]. This study tests the related hypothesis that ‘negative rationalization’, in the form of a massive wave of mine closures over the period 1924–9, played a significant role in stimulating aggregate labour productivity in the Ruhr coal district. Using an original dataset for the totality of Ruhr coal mines, the causes of productivity change over the broader period 1913–38 are identified, using the decomposition method of Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan. Results suggest that labour productivity was driven largely by improvements at individual mines, attributable to the intensified mechanization of underground operations. In sharp contrast, turnover effects were marginal, overall, compared to the effects stemming from the producer dynamics among surviving mines. Thus, the practical productivity implications of mine closures during the rationalization boom are negligible and overrated in the literature. These findings indicate the necessity of testing the relative importance of ‘negative rationalization’ in the form of plant closures in other branches of the Weimar economy.","wordCount":182,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Tobias A. Jopp"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12383","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ae313797005198be","title":"Historical roots of political extremism: The effects of Nazi occupation of Italy","abstract":"We study the impact of the Italian Civil War and Nazi occupation of Italy in 1943–45 on postwar political outcomes. The Communist Party, which was more active in the resistance movement, gained votes in areas where the Nazi occupation was both longer and harsher, mainly at the expense of centrist parties. This effect persists until the late 1980s. These results suggest that civil war and widespread political violence reshape political identities in favor of the political groups that emerge as winners. This benefits extremist groups and hurts moderates since the former have a comparative advantage in organizing violent conflict.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Nicola Fontana","Tommaso Nannicini","Guido Tabellini"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.05.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ae370b66d4e27d8e","title":"Failure to refinance","abstract":"Households that fail to refinance their mortgage when interest rates decline lose out on substantial savings. Using a random sample of outstanding US mortgages in December 2010, we estimate that approximately 20% of unconstrained households for whom refinancing was optimal had not done so. The median household would save $160/month over the remaining life of the loan, for a total present-discounted value of forgone savings of $11,500, a particularly large consumer financial mistake. To shed light on possible mechanisms, we also provide results from a mail campaign targeted at a sample of homeowners who could benefit from refinancing.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Benjamin J. Keys","Devin G. Pope","Jaren C. Pope"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ae44beeaf5fbeefa","title":"Price dynamics with customer markets","abstract":"Using microdata from a U.S. retailer we document that customer turnover responds to pricing. We study the optimal price setting of a firm when its demand has an extensive margin that is elastic to price due to customers' opportunity to search for an alternative supplier. The price pass‐through of idiosyncratic productivity shocks is incomplete, with the most productive firms passing through more. Firm demand is more persistent than price. Higher demand is associated with lower markups due to higher search intensity, despite flexible prices. We find empirical support for these predictions in microdata from the retail industry.","wordCount":97,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Luigi Paciello","Andrea Pozzi","Nicholas Trachter"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12358","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ae4c37ea4f37404c","title":"High-frequency analytics and residential water consumption: Estimating heterogeneous effects","abstract":"This paper estimates how high-frequency online Home Water Use Reports (HWURs) affect household-level water consumption. The HWURs under the study share social comparisons, consumption analytics, leak alerts, and conservation information to residential accounts, primarily through digital communications. The data utilized in this paper is a daily panel dataset that tracks single-family residential households from January 2013 to September 2019. We found a 6.2 % reduction in average daily household water consumption for a typical household enrolled in the program. We estimate heterogeneous treatment effects by the day of the week, the content of push notifications, and baseline consumption quintile. For the latter, we provide an illustrative test to emphasize how mean reversion can severely bias a naïve panel data estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects when the source of heterogeneity is the outcome variable. We also find evidence that leak alerts effectively reduce water consumption immediately following the alert.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Mehdi Nemati","Steven Buck","Hilary Soldati"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101500","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ae59d7fc1597178e","title":"Corporate cash holdings and credit line usage","abstract":"We investigate the factors driving the unprecedented rise in corporate liquidities since the 1970s. We find that an economy‐wide reduction in the cost of holding liquidities and an increase in risk best explain the rise in cash holdings and the widespread use of credit lines. The structural estimation results shed light on two widely acknowledged motives for holding cash. The precautionary motive and the liquidity motive translate risk exposure into cash holdings. Our results, however, do not suggest that firms have become more prudent over time. It is higher liquidity needs that has forced firms to hold more cash and use more credit lines.","wordCount":104,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Martin Boileau","Nathalie Moyen"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12205","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ae5e9c09582b85a5","title":"Double bank runs and liquidity risk management","abstract":"By providing liquidity to depositors and credit-line borrowers, banks can be exposed to double-runs on assets and liabilities. For identification, we exploit the 2007 freeze of the European interbank market and the Italian Credit Register. After the shock, there are sizeable, aggregate double-runs. In the cross-section, credit-line drawdowns are not larger for banks more exposed to the interbank market; however, they are larger when we condition on the same firms with multiple credit lines. We show that, ex-ante, more exposed banks actively manage their liquidity risk by granting fewer credit lines to firms that run more during crises.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Filippo Ippolito","José‐Luis Peydró","Andrea Polo","Enrico Sette"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","N","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.11.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ae66c672cdabfae4","title":"Learning by Working in Big Cities","abstract":"Individual earnings are higher in bigger cities.We consider three reasons: spatial sorting of initially more productive workers, static advantages from workers' current location, and learning by working in bigger cities. Using rich administrative data for Spain, we find that workers in bigger cities do not have higher initial unobserved ability as reflected in fixed effects. Instead, they obtain an immediate static premium and accumulate more valuable experience. The additional value of experience in bigger cities persists after leaving and is stronger for those with higher initial ability. This explains both the higher mean and greater dispersion of earnings in bigger cities.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Jorge De la Roca","Diego Puga"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ae71c132c0a2cb26","title":"The Extensive Margin of Exporting Products: A Firm-Level Analysis","abstract":"To quantify trade frictions, we examine multiproduct exporters. We build a flexible general-equilibrium model and estimate market entry costs using Brazilian firm-product-destination data under rich demand and market access cost shocks. Our estimates show that additional products farther from a firm’s core competency come at higher production costs, but there are substantive economies of scope in market access costs. Market access costs differ across destinations, falling more rapidly in scope at nearby regions and at destinations with fewer nontariff barriers. We evaluate a counterfactual scenario that harmonizes market access costs across destinations and find global welfare gains similar to eliminating all current tariffs.","wordCount":103,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Costas Arkolakis","Sharat Ganapati","Marc-Andreas Muendler"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150370","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ae911cacbecd44c9","title":"How do regulatory costs affect mergers and acquisitions decisions and outcomes?","abstract":"Regulations introduce substantial costs and constrain firms’ cost structures. This paper introduces a firm-specific measure of regulatory costs and explores its role in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) decisions; specifically, large (small) firms with high regulatory costs are likely to acquire (be acquired by) firms in the same industry. In contrast, regulatory costs do not have such an effect on cross-industry acquisitions. Herein, I introduce econometric techniques, including accounting for additional industry-specific variables, alternative regulatory cost measures, and difference-in-differences estimators, to address potential identification issues. Furthermore, regulatory costs drive acquisitions contributing to shareholders’ wealth; hence, regulatory cost burden is a crucial factor in M&A decisions and outcomes.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Baris Ince"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107156","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ae9c9bcc1c01fb38","title":"Nested replicator dynamics, nested logit choice, and similarity-based learning","abstract":"We consider a model of learning and evolution in games whose action sets are endowed with a partition-based similarity structure intended to capture exogenous similarities between strategies. In this model, revising agents have a higher probability of comparing their current strategy with other strategies that they deem similar, and they switch to the observed strategy with probability proportional to its payoff excess. Because of this implicit bias toward similar strategies, the resulting dynamics – which we call the nested replicator dynamics – do not satisfy any of the standard monotonicity postulates for imitative game dynamics; nonetheless, we show that they retain the main long-run rationality properties of the replicator dynamics, albeit at quantitatively different rates. We also show that the induced dynamics can be viewed as a stimulus-response model in the spirit of Erev and Roth (1998), with choice probabilities given by the nested logit choice rule of Ben-Akiva (1973) and McFadden (1978). This result generalizes an existing relation between the replicator dynamics and the exponential weights algorithm in online learning, and provides an additional layer of interpretation to our analysis and results.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Panayotis Mertikopoulos","William H. Sandholm"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105881","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aec77f66548ecf8e","title":"Economic, Health and Behavioural Consequences of Greater Gambling Availability","abstract":"Greater availability of gambling venues may increase gambling rates, and therefore enhance welfare through the additional enjoyment from gambling and the related socialising. However, it may also lead to problematic gambling, financial hardship and psychological distress. We provide new evidence on the potential benefits and harms of greater geographic availability of suburban gambling venues containing electronic gaming (slot) machines. Our setting is Australia, a country with high per capita gambling expenditure. Our approach combines geolocations of gambling venues with longitudinal survey data on gambling behaviours and economic, health and behavioural outcomes. We find that people residing in close proximity to gambling venues are more likely to gamble, less likely to be happy, and are more likely to suffer from financial hardship and mental health problems. These findings have implications for government policies to reduce the social costs of gambling venues. In contrast, we find no significant socialising benefits and near-zero associations with general health, relationship dissatisfaction, and crime victimisation.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Samia Badji","Nicole Black","David Johnston"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106285","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-aec90d73fb67d2d2","title":"The impact of sodomy law repeals on crime","abstract":"We exploit variations in the timing of decriminalization of same-sex sexual intercourse across US states to estimate the impact of these law changes on crime through difference-in-differences and event study models. We provide the first evidence that sodomy law repeals led to a decline in the number of arrests for disorderly conduct, prostitution, and other sex offenses. Moreover, in line with the hypothesis that sodomy law repeals enhanced mental health and lessened minority stress, we show that these repeals led to a reduction in arrests for drug and alcohol consumption.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Riccardo Ciacci","Dario Sansone"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00953-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-aecc3ba9088e204b","title":"How does bank opacity affect credit growth and return predictability?","abstract":"Prior research finds that bank credit growth predicts lower bank equity returns in subsequent one to three years. Stocks of banks with high credit growth are initially overvalued because of overoptimism or elevated sentiment of bank shareholders. Eventually, these stocks underperform, generating lower returns. We argue that shareholder sentiment should exhibit its strongest effects on the performance of bank stocks when banks are opaque, or there is uncertainty about the quality of bank loans. Accordingly, we show that an increase in bank’s financial reporting opacity amplifies the predictive ability of credit growth for equity returns by 3 to 4 times relative to when opacity is at its mean.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Arpit Kumar Parija","Malvika Chhatwani"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101553","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-aee87244565deda4","title":"Empowering Consumers Through Data and Smart Technology: Experimental Evidence on the Consequences of Time‐of‐Use Electricity Pricing Policies","abstract":"This paper investigates the extent to which technology used to automate household responses to time‐of‐use pricing for electricity leads to higher energy savings than simply providing households with information on current prices and quantities. Using a large randomized field trial, we find that informed households with “smart” thermostats achieve impressive reductions in consumption during on‐peak periods of up to 48 percent, but also engage in substantial load shifting to off‐peak hours. We also document the extent to which household responses to time‐of‐use pricing are heterogeneous and vary significantly by demographics, weather, and across the usage distribution .","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Matthew Harding","Carlos Lamarche"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21928","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-aefd40ce4021f85b","title":"Gender Stereotypes in the Classroom and Effects on Achievement","abstract":"We study the effect of elementary school teachers' beliefs about gender roles on student achievement. We exploit a natural experiment where teachers are prevented from self-selecting into schools, and, conditional on school, students are allocated to teachers randomly. We show that girls who are taught for longer than a year by teachers with traditional gender views have lower performance in objective math and verbal tests, and this effect is amplified with longer exposure to the same teacher. We find no effect on boys. We show that the effect is partly mediated by teachers' transmitting traditional beliefs to girls.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Şule Alan","Seda Ertaç","Ipek Mumcu"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00756","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-af01469e0a419da5","title":"On the robustness of the pooled CCE estimator","abstract":"Among the existing estimators of factor-augmented regressions, the CCE approach is the most popular. A major reason for this popularity is the simplicity and good small-sample performance of the approach, making it very attractive from an empirical point of view. The main drawback is that most of the available asymptotic theory is based on quite restrictive assumptions, such as that the common factor component should be independent of the regressors. The present paper can be seen as a reaction to this. The purpose is to study the asymptotic properties of the pooled CCE estimator under more realistic conditions. In particular, the common factor component may be correlated with the regressors, and the true number of common factors, r, can be larger than the number of estimated factors, which in CCE is given by k+1, where k is the number of regressors. The main conclusion is that while the estimator is generally consistent, asymptotic normality can fail when r>k+1.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Artūras Juodis","Hande Karabiyik","Joakim Westerlund"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.06.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af10bce0a787de76","title":"Climate policy in emerging economies: Evidence from China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot","abstract":"In this paper, we assess the effectiveness of early climate policy in emerging economies by causally evaluating the impact of China’s Low-carbon City Pilot (LCCP) on city-level per-capita CO2 emissions and CO2 intensity of GDP over the period 2003–2017. The idiosyncrasies of the policy design pose significant challenges for causal identification, which we overcome within a synthetic control framework. Contrary to previous contributions, our results suggest that the LCCP had no significant impact on either carbon emissions or intensity. The main takeaway of our empirical investigation is that even in emerging economies, effective environmental policy requires transparent, quantifiable targets, and credible enforcement.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Haibo Zhang","Corrado Di Maria","Bahar Ghezelayagh","Yuli Shan"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102943","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af1d837783e78efc","title":"Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending","abstract":"We provide evidence that German savings banks, which are controlled by county-level politicians, systematically adjust lending policies in response to local electoral cycles. The different timings of county elections across states and the existence of a comparable group of cooperative banks-that are very similar to savings banks but lack their political connectedness-allow for identification of the effects of county elections on savings bank lending. These effects are economically meaningful and very robust to various specifications. We find that election-induced lending negatively impacts savings bank profitability and is associated with an increase in credit defaults roughly three years after an election. Examining the political-economy aspects of our findings, we provide evidence that savings bank excess lending and public spending at the county level are substitute levers for county politicians. Finally, we find indications that subpar pre-election economic county performance hurts re-election prospects and increases the intensity of lending cycles","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Florian Englmaier","Till Stowasser"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-af22a940f5c85693","title":"Using Payroll Tax Variation to Unpack the Black Box of Firm-Level Production","abstract":"This paper uses quasi-experimental variation in payroll tax rates in Finland to investigate how firms use their input factors. We find that higher payroll tax rates lead to large employment responses and have no effects on employee-level earnings. As payroll taxes increase, firms substitute away from low-skilled, routine, and manual workers. Higher firm-level payroll tax rates also slightly decrease the total output of firms. Our results imply that firm-level production and input factor choices are clearly affected by payroll taxes.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Youssef Benzarti","Jarkko Harju"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab010","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-af29b2c260e94a34","title":"Trade and diffusion of embodied technology: an empirical analysis","abstract":"Knowledge-weighted imports from the US explain 13% of residual patent variation. Using global patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales, and trade data, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imported inputs. We use citations and sales data to characterize knowledge and production input-output tables for individual countries. Using these tables, we construct a measure of the flow of knowledge-weighted and production-weighted technology embodied in inputs imported from the US. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to establish that increases in embodied technology imports lead to increased innovation and knowledge diffusion in sectors within importing countries. Effects are substantially larger for knowledge-weighted imports of embodied technology.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Stephen Ayerst","Faisal Ibrahim","Gaelan MacKenzie","Swapnika Rachapalli"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af2cec2150f6fbe8","title":"Valuing research output: Evidence from a Chinese university","abstract":"Exploring the economic value of research output is a crucial but neglected issue and thus is worth gaining attention. Using data concerning the promotion from a medium-ranked university in China during 2011–2019, this paper proposes a novel methodology that combines a regression discontinuity design and the theory of “Value of a Statistical Life” to quantify the monetary value of research output. Our findings suggest that each unit of research score is worth $467 for a promotion to associate professor and $515 for full professors. Based on the rate for full professors, the computed economic values for a publication in ordinary journals, famous journals, and top journals are around $1,538, $5,154, and $20,615, respectively. Additionally, the economic value of a book publication is approximately $7,723. These research outputs are significantly undervalued compared to the faculty's own total income, the income of peers in similar sectors, or the income of peers from other countries' higher education. Our analysis provides not only insights for incentive system reform for Chinese higher education but also a methodology that can be universally applicable to any higher institutions that use the scoring system or set implicit research standards in the promotion and merit process.","wordCount":197,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yuelong Wang","Xin Xie","Yongbing Yang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101964","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-af31deb83482d8f4","title":"Sustaining healthy diets: The role of capture fisheries and aquaculture for improving nutrition in the post-2015 era","abstract":"The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda makes achieving food security and ending malnutrition a global priority. Within this framework, the importance of fisheries in local and global food systems and its contribution to nutrition and health, particularly for the poor are overlooked and undervalued. This paper reviews current fish production and consumption from capture fisheries and aquaculture, highlights opportunities for enhancing healthy diets and outlines key multi-sectoral policy solutions. Mirroring the call for a diversification of agricultural research and investment beyond a few staple grains, it is anticipated that productivity gains for a few farmed aquatic species will not suffice. Capture fisheries and aquaculture have a complementary role to play in increasing fish availability and access, and must be promoted in ways that support measurable nutrition and health gains. This paper argues that the lack of a nutrition-sensitive policy focus on capture fisheries and aquaculture represents an untapped opportunity that must be realised for ensuring sustainable healthy diets for all.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Shakuntala H. Thilsted","Andrew Thorne‐Lyman","Patrick Webb","Jessica Bogard","Rohana Subasinghe","Michael J. Phillips","Edward H. Allison"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.02.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-af36bbc836465ffd","title":"Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations","abstract":"We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts under-react relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning model. Structural estimation indicates that departures from Bayesian updating in the form of diagnostic overreaction capture important variation in forecast biases across different series, yielding a belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Pedro Bordalo","Nicola Gennaioli","Yueran Ma","Andrei Shleifer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181219","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-af47103607a7bd70","title":"Did California Paid Family Leave Impact Infant Health?","abstract":"The effects of paid parental leave policies on infant health have yet to be established. In this paper we investigate these effects by exploiting the introduction of California Paid Family Leave (PFL), the first program in the U.S. that specifically provides working parents with paid time off for bonding with a newborn. We measure health using the full census of infant hospitalizations in California and a set of control states, and implement a differences-in-differences approach. Our results suggest a decline in infant admissions, which is concentrated among those causes that are potentially affected by closer childcare (and to a lesser extent breastfeeding). Other admissions that are unlikely to be affected by parental leave do not exhibit the same pattern.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Ariel Marek Pihl","Gaetano Basso"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22101","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-af48c9eab97bb481","title":"Location, quality and choice of hospital: Evidence from England 2002–2013","abstract":"We investigate (a) how patient choice of hospital for elective hip replacement is influenced by distance, quality and waiting times, (b) differences in choices between patients in urban and rural locations, (c) the relationship between hospitals' elasticities of demand to quality and the number of local rivals, and how these changed after relaxation of constraints on hospital choice in England in 2006. Using a data set on over 500,000 elective hip replacement patients over the period 2002 to 2013 we find that patients became more likely to travel to a provider with higher quality or lower waiting times, the proportion of patients bypassing their nearest provider increased from 25% to almost 50%, and hospital elasticity of demand with respect to own quality increased. By 2013 average hospital demand elasticity with respect to readmission rates and waiting times were - 0.2 and - 0.04. Providers facing more rivals had demand that was more elastic with respect to quality and waiting times. Patients from rural areas have smaller disutility from distance.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Giuseppe Moscelli","Luigi Siciliani","Nils Gutacker","Hugh Gravelle"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.07.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-af4d31dd741f3dfd","title":"Cross market predictions for commodity prices","abstract":"This paper shows that commodity prices can be predicted from cross-market information by establishing long-run cross-market commodity price equilibrium models, which are characterized by a linear relation between prices across different markets. Using data from five representative commodity markets (oil, copper, gold, corn, and cattle) during the period 2005–2018, we demonstrate that oil and industrial metal markets have formed a long-run price equilibrium with other markets across different commodity families. However, agriculture and gold markets do not tend to have long-run price equilibrium relations with other commodity markets. Furthermore, we show that the absence of a price equilibrium is due to the cross-market liquidity interference effect. After we control for the liquidity effect, long-run cross-market commodity price equilibrium relations are reestablished for agriculture and gold markets. These results can aid in demonstrating that liquidity can capture most of the missing information that is not reflected in price dynamics in less liquid markets, such as agriculture and gold markets. Therefore, less liquid commodity price predictions require both prices and liquidity levels from cross-markets, while liquid commodity prices (oil and metal) can be predicted based solely on cross-market prices.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Shusheng Ding","Yongmin Zhang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.06.019","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-af552feb1ebe348b","title":"Relocation from China (with Chinese characteristics)","abstract":"Rising global political tensions and increasing use of trade policies are popularly seen as potential threats to globalization. Will these factors lead to the ‘decoupling’ of affected economies, or reshape relations between trade partners in more complex ways? We consider this question by studying the recent evolution of the economic relationship between China and the US, in the context of a sharp fall in direct China-US trade. Using firm-level and product-level data, we show that Chinese manufacturing investment and Chinese-produced parts have increasingly flowed to third-country ‘winners’ who have simultaneously increased their US market share. This suggests that Chinese economic actors have continued to participate in reorganized China-US supply chains. We present evidence that our findings capture expanding indirect relationships linking China and the US rather than broader economic trends within the ‘winners’ themselves.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Jason Garred","Song Yuan"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103510","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af755ca4bb91654f","title":"Parental choice, neighbourhood segregation or cream skimming? An analysis of school segregation after a generalized choice reform","abstract":"This paper studies the evolution of school segregation in Sweden in the aftermath of the 1992 universal voucher reform, which spurred the establishment of new independent schools and introduced parental choice. We assess the relative importance of neighbourhood segregation, parental choice and the location of independent schools for school segregation. In particular, we exploit variation in school choice opportunities across municipalities and provide descriptive evidence that in regions where school choice has become more prevalent, school segregation between immigrants and natives, and between children of high/low educated parents, has increased more than in regions where choice is limited. This result also holds when we account for residential segregation and focus on excess segregation over and above the segregation that would occur if all pupils attended their assigned schools. We find that the increase in school segregation 15 years after the reform that can be attributed to choice is relatively small.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Anders Böhlmark","Helena Holmlund","Mikael Lindahl"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-016-0595-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af75a955a0e49941","title":"Connectedness between fossil and renewable energy stock indices: The impact of the COP policies","abstract":"Switching from fossil to renewable energy is essential to reduce global warming. The existing literature has found evidence of connectedness between fossil and renewable energy stock indices but has not considered the possible impact of climate policies on those linkages. This paper provides evidence on the latter issue to fill this gap. Specifically, in addition to full sample estimation, endogenous break tests and sub-sample estimation are carried out using daily data for a wide range of indices over the last decade. The results suggest that renewable energy stock indices play a significant role in terms of connectedness; moreover, the two detected breaks indicate that both the unsuccessful COP17 held in Durban in 2011 and the anticipation of decisive action at the COP26 in Glasgow affected connectedness, namely spillovers are stronger during periods characterized by more effective climate policies. This confirms the crucial importance of policy intervention to tackle climate change.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Guglielmo Maria Caporale","Nicola Spagnolo","Awon Almajali"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106273","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af7716569ead0045","title":"Best practices for differentiated products demand estimation with PyBLP","abstract":"Differentiated products demand systems are a workhorse for understanding the price effects of mergers, the value of new goods, and the contribution of products to seller networks. Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) provide a flexible random coefficients logit model which accounts for the endogeneity of prices. This article reviews and combines several recent advances related to the estimation of BLP‐type problems and implements an extensible generic interface via the PyBLP package. Monte Carlo experiments and replications suggest different conclusions than the prior literature: multiple local optima appear to be rare in well‐identified problems; good performance is possible even in small samples, particularly when “optimal instruments” are employed along with supply‐side restrictions. If Python is installed on your computer, PyBLP can be installed with the following command : pip install pyblp. Up‐to‐date documentation for the package is available at https://pyblp.readthedocs.io .","wordCount":140,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Christopher T. Conlon","Jeff Gortmaker"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12352","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-af77562d9f2bc579","title":"Looking ahead: Subjective time perception and individual discounting","abstract":"We disentangle hyperbolic discounting from subjective time perception using experimental data from incentive-compatible tests to measure time preferences, and a set of experimental tasks to measure time perception. Two behavioral parameters are related to two factors affecting how we look ahead to future events. The first is some component of time preferences reflecting hyperbolic discounting. The second factor is that non-constant discounting may also be a reflection of subjective time perception: if people’s perception of time follows a near logarithmic process (as heat, sound, and light do) then estimates of individual discounting will be mis-measured and incorrectly suggest hyperbolic discounting even if discounting over subjective time is constant. We empirically estimate the two distinct behavioral parameters using data collected from 178 participants in a lab experiment. The results support the hypothesis that apparent non-constant discounting is largely a reflection of non-linear subjective time perception.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["W. David Bradford","Paul Dolan","Matteo M. Galizzi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09298-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af9ab2ac3ed62e30","title":"Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms","abstract":"Exploiting confidential data from the euro area, we show that sound banks pass negative rates on to their corporate depositors and that pass-through is not impaired when policy rates move into negative territory. We do not observe a contraction in deposits, reflecting a general increase in corporate liquidity during the sample period. When their banks charge negative rates on deposits, firms with ex ante high liquidity invest more than comparable firms that are not charged negative rates and increase their liquid holdings less. These results challenge the common view that conventional monetary policy becomes ineffective at the zero lower bound.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Carlo Altavilla","Lorenzo Burlón","Mariassunta Giannetti","Sarah Holton"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.032","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-af9d48b749f74c4b","title":"Do casinos pay their customers to become risk-averse? Revising the house money effect in a field experiment","abstract":"The house money effect predicts that individuals show increased risk-seeking behavior in the presence of prior windfall gains. Although the effect’s existence is widely accepted, experimental studies that compare individuals’ risk-taking behavior using house money to individuals’ risk-taking behavior using their own money produce contradictory results. This experimental field study analyzes the gambling behavior of 917 casino customers who face real losses. We find that customers who received free play at the entrance showed not higher but significantly lower levels of risk-taking behavior during their casino visit, expressed through lower average wagers. This study thus provides field evidence against the house money effect. Moreover, as a result of lower levels of risk seeking, endowed customers yield better economic results in the form of smaller own-money losses when leaving the casino.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Maximilian Rüdisser","Raphael Flepp","Egon Franck"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9509-9","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-afae3aa4d9f6c43f","title":"Editor's Choice … and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns","abstract":"Hundreds of papers and factors attempt to explain the cross-section of expected returns. Given this extensive data mining, it does not make sense to use the usual criteria for establishing significance. Which hurdle should be used for current research? Our paper introduces a new multiple testing framework and provides historical cutoffs from the first empirical tests in 1967 to today. A new factor needs to clear a much higher hurdle, with a t-statistic greater than 3.0. We argue that most claimed research findings in financial economics are likely false.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Campbell R. Harvey","Yan Liu","Caroline Zhu"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv059","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-afd233544c83e5c2","title":"Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation","abstract":"We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans’ expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counterfactual exercises imply that, had all expectations become as unanchored as those of Republicans, average inflation would have been two to four percentage points higher for much of the pandemic period, ceteris paribus.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Carola Binder","Rupal Kamdar","Jane Ryngaert"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-afdab53a34937ed1","title":"The Effects of Tulsa's Pre‐K Program on Middle School Student Performance","abstract":"As states have upgraded their commitment to pre‐K education over the past two decades, questions have arisen. Critics argue that program effects are likely to fade out or disappear over time, while supporters contend that program effects are likely to persist under certain conditions. Using data from Tulsa Public Schools, three neighboring school districts, and the state of Oklahoma, and propensity score weighting, we estimate the effects of Tulsa's universal, school‐based pre‐K program on multiple measures of academic progress for middle school students. We find enduring effects on math achievement test scores, enrollment in honors courses, and grade retention for students as a whole, and similar effects for certain subgroups. We conclude that some positive effects of a high‐quality pre‐K program are discernible as late as middle school.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["William T. Gormley","Deborah Phillips","Sara Anderson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-affc81e2fcfed3a2","title":"The Federal Reserve's response to the <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 contraction: An initial appraisal","abstract":"We provide an initial assessment of the Federal Reserve's policy response to the COVID-19 contraction. We briefly review the historical episode and consider the standard textbook treatment of a pandemic on the macroeconomy. We summarize and then evaluate the Fed's monetary and emergency lending policies through the end of 2020. We credit the Fed with promoting monetary stability while maintaining that it could have done more. We argue that the Fed could have achieved stability without employing its emergency lending facilities. Although some facilities likely helped to promote general liquidity, others were primarily intended to allocate credit, which blurs the line between monetary and fiscal policy. These credit allocation facilities were unwarranted and unwise.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Nicolás Cachanosky","Bryan Cutsinger","Thomas L. Hogan","William J. Luther","Alexander William Salter"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12498","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b001feb743bb77c7","title":"Ecosystem Services as Boundary Objects for Transdisciplinary Collaboration","abstract":"The ecosystem services (ES) framework has potential to bring transdisciplinary teams together to achieve societal goals. Some label ES as “boundary objects” that help integrate diverse forms of knowledge across social groups and organizational scales. However, this classification masks complexities that arise from unique characteristics of ES types (i.e., provisioning, regulating, and cultural), which influence their ability to function as boundary objects. We argue that interpretive flexibility and material structures interact in distinct ways across ES types throughout a boundary object “life cycle.” Viewing a 2015 U.S. federal memorandum as a catalyst, we critically evaluate the evolution of ES and its role as a boundary object. We propose that provisioning and regulating services are transitioning out of boundary object status, moving into a more standardized state. However, we anticipate that cultural services may continue to behave as boundary objects if collaborators maintain them as such. This shift in the functionality of ES as boundary objects is an important consideration for future research that attempts to reach across social worlds and disciplinary perspectives. We urge collaborations to rely on the most relevant disciplinary knowledge, rather than allowing the ease of standardized solutions to dictate the boundary of a given problem.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Cara Steger","Shana Lee Hirsch","Cody Evers","Benjamin Branoff","Maria A. Petrova","Max Nielsen‐Pincus","Chloe B. Wardropper","Carena J. van Riper"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b013599bf1b978ff","title":"Integrated soil fertility management and household welfare in Ethiopia","abstract":"Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) is a set of locally adapted soil fertility technologies and improved agronomic practices promoted to enhance soil fertility, crop productivity and incomes of smallholder farmers. While the suite of practices is site-specific, the use of improved seeds, organic and inorganic fertilizers constitute core ISFM technologies. ISFM is mostly related to higher input and labor demand, but there is little evidence whether these investments pay off at the household level. Using data from maize, wheat and teff growing farmers in two agroecological zones in Ethiopia, we assess whether the adoption of core ISFM technologies is associated with changes in household welfare, measured by total household income, food security and education. In addition, we look into resource allocation decisions within the household as potential drivers of welfare outcomes. We use the inverse probability weighting regression adjustment method. Results show that adopting ISFM core components for maize, wheat or teff is associated with higher labor demand as well as income obtained from these crops in both agroecological zones. Yet, only in one agroecological region, it also goes along with enhanced household income, food security and school enrollment. By contrast, in the other region, we find that technology adoption for at least one of the three crops is related to a reduced likelihood of engaging in other economic activities, pointing towards labor reallocation effects. We conclude that welfare outcomes of agricultural innovations can be heterogeneous depending on farmers’ income diversification strategies.","wordCount":242,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Denise Hörner","Meike Wollni"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.102022","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b02159425def973c","title":"Double-edged sword: persistent effects of Communist regime affiliations on well-being and preferences","abstract":"During Communism, party members and their relatives were typically privileged elites in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). At the same time, secret police informants were often coerced to spy and report on their fellow citizens. After the fall of Communism, CEE countries and the Baltics underwent decommunization, unlike most FSU countries. This paper is the first to empirically distinguish between these two Communist party regime affiliations and study their long-term implications for the well-being and preferences of affiliated individuals and their relatives. In the FSU, we find that individuals connected to the former Communist party are more satisfied with their lives, but those linked to secret police informants seem to have lower life satisfaction than those without such ties. The life satisfaction benefit of having former Communist regime party connections in the FSU is, on average, equivalent to one month’s household income. Simultaneously, the psychological costs of being an informant can amount to two monthly household incomes. In CEE countries, having informant connections is not associated with life satisfaction, but having links to the former Communist party is negatively correlated with subjective well-being. Formal and informal decommunization efforts are an important mechanism behind our findings. We also show that those connected to the former regimes differ from those without such connections in their preferences for democracy and market economy, levels of optimism, and risk tolerance, which provides suggestive evidence for the mechanisms underpinning our findings. Our results underscore that the former Communist regimes produced winners and losers based on the trustee status of their collaborators that decommunization efforts further shaped and solidified. Future decommunization efforts in the FSU may thus have important welfare implications.","wordCount":280,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Vladimir Otrachshenko","Milena Nikolova","Olga Popova"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00930-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b0365691958d57cb","title":"The Hidden Educational Costs of Intensified Immigration Enforcement","abstract":"The past two decades have witnessed an unprecedented increase in interior immigration enforcement that may have adversely impacted the children of unauthorized migrants—the vast majority of whom are U.S.-born citizens. Using 2000 through 2013 data from the Current Population Survey, we gauge the impact that intensified interior immigration enforcement in the United States is having on the schooling progression of Hispanic youth with likely unauthorized parents. Intensified enforcement raises the probability of repeating a grade for children ages 6–13 by 14%, and the likelihood of dropping out of school for youth ages 14–17 by 18%. Furthermore, younger children are more responsive to police-based enforcement, whereas older youth are more responsive to employment-based enforcement. Awareness of the impacts that current immigration policies have on the children of immigrants is critical in informing the policy debate and in protecting the well-being of children.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes","Mary Lopez"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12207","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b037df5894049d2e","title":"Trademarks and the cost of equity capital","abstract":"Employing a sample of 4655 U.S. public firms from 1993 to 2017, we document robust evidence that firms with more registered trademarks have a lower cost of equity. We further show that the equity financing cost is lower for firms with better-protected trademarks in difference-in-differences estimation based on the enactment of the Federal Trademark Dilution Act in 1996. In addition, our analysis reveals that the effect of trademarks on the cost of equity is achieved through the informational channel, the disciplinary channel, and the stabilizing cash flow channel. These results suggest that trademarks play an important role in alleviating the equity financing cost, thus clarifying the underlying mechanism that brand equity creates value.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Bin Yang","Zhe An","Xin Gao","Donghui Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102504","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b03d5decaaa9a6d6","title":"The Impact of Unemployment Insurance on Job Search: Evidence from Google Search Data","abstract":"Job search is a key choice variable in theories of labor markets but is difficult to measure directly. We develop a job search activity index based on Google search data, the Google Job Search Index (GJSI). We validate the GJSI with both survey- and web-based measures of job search. Unlike those measures, the GJSI is high frequency, geographically precise, and available in real time. We demonstrate the GJSI’s utility by using it to study the effects of unemployment insurance policy changes between 2008 and 2014. We find no evidence of an economically meaningful effect of these changes on aggregate search.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Scott Baker","Andrey Fradkin"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00674","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b03eb8dc44ac5dce","title":"Economics for the future – Beyond the superorganism","abstract":"Our environment and economy are at a crossroads. This paper attempts a cohesive narrative on how human evolved behavior, money, energy, economy and the environment fit together. Humans strive for the same emotional state of our successful ancestors. In a resource rich environment, we coordinate in groups, corporations and nations, to maximize financial surplus, tethered to energy, tethered to carbon. At global scales, the emergent result of this combination is a mindless, energy hungry, CO2 emitting Superorganism. Under this dynamic we are now behaviorally ‘growth constrained’ and will use any means possible to avoid facing this reality. The farther we kick the can, the larger the disconnect between our financial and physical reality becomes. The moment of this recalibration will be a watershed time for our culture, but could also be the birth of a new ‘systems economics’. and resultant different ways of living. The next 30 years are the time to apply all we’ve learned during the past 30 years. We’ve arrived at a species level conversation.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Nathan John Hagens"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106520","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b048d667066c43c2","title":"Target Setting in Tournaments: Theory and Evidence from China","abstract":"Motivated by the prevalence of economic targets at all levels of territory administration in China, this article proposes a Tullock contest model to study optimal target setting in a multi-layered tournament-based organisation. In our model, targets are used by upper-level officials to convey the importance of economic growth and incentivise subordinates in the tournaments. Our model predicts a top-down amplification of economic growth targets along the jurisdiction levels, which explains the observed pattern in China. Using both provincial and prefectural-level data, we test the model predictions and find consistent evidence.","wordCount":90,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Xing Li","Chong Liu","Xi Weng","Li‐An Zhou"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b0575cb838df10b4","title":"Tax aversion as an implicit phenomenon","abstract":"The measurement of implicit tax aversion remains stable over time. The term “tax aversion” refers to a dislike of taxes which is stronger than the reaction to other types of payments. Although many scholars have found that the word “tax” elicits negative feelings, contrasting findings have been obtained when tax aversion has been measured as an explicit tendency. The present study suggests a complementary perspective on tax aversion, suggesting that tax aversion might operate as both a latent phenomenon and an explicit propensity. We propose that tax aversion may stem from an inner predisposition rather than an explicit and rational attitude. Such intuition drove the present research, aimed at measuring tax aversion at an implicit level and examining the relationship between implicit, explicit, and behavioral measures of tax aversion. Across three studies, we employed the Implicit Association Test (IAT) alongside traditional measures to explore implicit tax aversion and its behavioral implications. The novelty of this research lies in the use of the IAT to measure implicit tax aversion, examining its relationship with explicit measures, such as the TAX-I ( Kirchler & Wahl, 2010 ), as well as with the behavioral outcomes of tax aversion based on the study conducted by Sussman and Olivola (2011) . Consistent with our hypothesis, the findings support the idea that tax aversion can operate as a latent phenomenon. Furthermore, the implicit hostility measured through the IAT appears to be linked to the behavioral outcomes of tax aversion; contrarily, no relationship was found with explicit tax-related attitudes.","wordCount":251,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Giulia Sesini","Cinzia Castiglioni","Paola Iannello","Edoardo Lozza"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102828","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b05fafb38ccde696","title":"Job Search Behavior over the Business Cycle","abstract":"We create a novel measure of job search effort exploiting the American Time Use and Current Population Surveys. We examine the cyclicality of search effort using time-series, cross-state, and individual variation and find that it is countercyclical. We then set up a search and matching model with endogenous search effort and show that search effort does not amplify labor market fluctuations but rather dampens them. Lastly, we examine the role of search effort in driving recent unemployment dynamics and show that the unemployment rate would have been 0.5 to 1 percentage points higher in the 2008–2014 period had search effort not increased.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Toshihiko Mukoyama","Christina Patterson","Ayşegül Şahin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160202","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b06391aeb701797e","title":"Identification of structural multivariate GARCH models","abstract":"The class of multivariate GARCH models is widely used to quantify and monitor volatility and correlation dynamics of financial time series. While many specifications have been proposed in the literature, these models are typically silent about the system inherent transmission of implied orthogonalized shocks to vector returns. In a framework of non-Gaussian independent structural shocks, this paper proposes a loss statistic, based on higher order co-moments, to discriminate in a data-driven way between alternative structural assumptions about the transmission scheme, and hence identify the structural model. Consistency of identification is shown theoretically and via a simulation study. In its structural form, a four dimensional system comprising US and Latin American stock market returns points to a substantial volatility transmission from the US to the Latin American markets. The identified structural model improves the estimation of classical measures of portfolio risk, as well as corresponding variations.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Christian Hafner","Helmut Herwartz","Simone Maxand"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.019","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b06462d64e24fd42","title":"The Evolution of Physician Practice Styles: Evidence from Cardiologist Migration","abstract":"Physician treatment choices for observably similar patients vary dramatically across regions. This paper exploits cardiologist migration to disentangle the role of physician-specific factors such as preferences and learned behavior versus environment-level factors such as hospital capacity and productivity spillovers on physician behavior. Physicians starting in the same region and subsequently moving to dissimilar regions practice similarly before the move. After the move, physician behavior in the first year changes by 0.6-0.8 percentage points for each percentage point change in practice environment, with no further changes over time. This suggests environment factors explain between 60-80 percent of regional disparities in physician behavior.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["David Molitor"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160319","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b072bc744d5a46a3","title":"Why Do Women Earn Less than Men? Evidence from Bus and Train Operators","abstract":"Female workers earn $0.89 for each male-worker dollar even in a unionized workplace, where tasks, wages, and promotion schedules are identical for men and women by design. Using administrative time-card data on bus and train operators, we show that this earnings gap can be explained by female operators taking fewer hours of overtime and more hours of unpaid time off than male operators. Female operators, especially those with dependents, pursue schedule conventionality, predictability, and controllability more than male operators. While reducing schedule controllability can limit the earnings gap, it can also hurt female workers and their productivity.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Valentin Bolotnyy","Natalia Emanuel"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/715835","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b07387c567483d05","title":"Cybersecurity Risk","abstract":"Based on textual analysis and a comparison of cybersecurity risk disclosures of firms that were hacked to others that were not, we propose a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk for all U.S.-listed firms. We then examine whether cybersecurity risk is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Portfolios of firms with high exposure to cybersecurity risk outperform other firms, on average, by up to 8.3$\\%$ per year. Yet, high-exposure firms perform poorly in periods of high cybersecurity risk. Reassuringly, the measure is higher in information-technology industries, correlates with characteristics linked to firms hit by cyberattacks, and predicts future cyberattacks.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Chris Florackis","Christodoulos Louca","Roni Michaely","Michael Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhac024","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b077e4bf212ff686","title":"Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash-Outs” in Betting Markets","abstract":"The disposition effect describes the tendency of investors to sell assets that have increased in value since purchase, and hold those that have not. We analyze the introduction of betting market “Cash-Outs,” which provide a continual update—and therefore increase the salience—of bettors' paper profits/losses on each bet. We find that the introduction of Cash-Out increased the disposition effect in this market, as punters sold their profitable bets with greater frequency than before. We do not, however, find that the disposition effect has any impact on asset prices, either before or after this intervention.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Alasdair Brown","Fuyu Yang"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Z","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12202","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b0816756ad8c0238","title":"Occupational Social Value and Returns to Long Hours","abstract":"This paper examines the phenomenon of uncompensated long hours in jobs with pro‐social characteristics and presents evidence that long‐hour wage premiums and occupational social value are substitutes in compensating salaried workers who supply hours exceeding the standard working week. I show that the social value of an occupation—in particular the degree to which jobs involve helping or providing service to others—is inversely related to long‐hour pay. Allowing for heterogeneity in the degree to which workers value their job's helping orientation lets me explore how gender differences in employees’ attitudes toward pro‐social behaviour can explain some of the observed occupational sorting trends and gender differences in long‐hour compensation. Women tend to be more strongly drawn to ‘helping’ occupations and at the same time receive lower long‐hour premiums in these jobs relative to men. I offer a theoretical framework to rationalize the empirical trends.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Dora Gicheva"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12322","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b0903c93a79f3235","title":"Nonparametric identification and estimation of random coefficients in multinomial choice models","abstract":"We show how to nonparametrically identify the distribution of unobservables, such as random coefficients, that characterizes the heterogeneity among consumers in multinomial choice models. We provide general identification conditions for a class of nonlinear models and then verify these conditions using the primitives of the multinomial choice model. We require that the distribution of unobservables lie in the class of all distributions with finite support, which under our most general assumptions, resembles a product space where some of the product members are function spaces. We show how identification leads to the consistency of a nonparametric estimator.","wordCount":96,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Jeremy T. Fox","Amit Gandhi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12125","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b0b39bbfe2fa53fc","title":"Regional economic growth and the role of high-speed rail in China","abstract":"Rapid development of High-speed railways (HSR) in China has attracted serious research interest. This paper proposes an endogenous economic growth model to explain how and why HSR may lead to faster economic growth and regional convergence in China using data from 285 cities in 2010–2014. TSLS estimation suggests that HSR has a powerful impact on urban economic growth and regional convergence. It suggests that HSR was a potent driver responsible for the sustainable and steady economic expansion of the Chinese regions in the aftermath of the world financial crisis.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Shujie Yao","Fan Zhang","Wang Feng","Jinghua Ou"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1581910","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b0bf19d27c942d1f","title":"The Price Impact of Extreme Weather in Developing Countries","abstract":"We examine the impact of extreme weather on consumer prices in developing countries by constructing a monthly data set of potential hurricane and flood destruction indices and linking these with consumer price data for 15 Caribbean islands. Our econometric model shows that the price impact of extreme weather events can be large. To illustrate potential welfare losses due to these price effects, we combine our estimates with price elasticities obtained from a demand system and with event probabilities for Jamaica. Our results show that while expected monthly losses are small, rare events can cause large falls in monthly welfare due to price increases.","wordCount":103,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Andréas Heinen","Jeetendra Khadan","Eric Strobl"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12581","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b0da5d64f33f486f","title":"The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions","abstract":"We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Matthias Kalkuhl","Leonie Wenz"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b0e42bfb881d2608","title":"Measuring Group Differences in High‐Dimensional Choices: Method and Application to Congressional Speech","abstract":"We study the problem of measuring group differences in choices when the dimensionality of the choice set is large. We show that standard approaches suffer from a severe finite‐sample bias, and we propose an estimator that applies recent advances in machine learning to address this bias. We apply this method to measure trends in the partisanship of congressional speech from 1873 to 2016, defining partisanship to be the ease with which an observer could infer a congressperson's party from a single utterance. Our estimates imply that partisanship is far greater in recent years than in the past, and that it increased sharply in the early 1990s after remaining low and relatively constant over the preceding century.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Matthew Gentzkow","Jesse M. Shapiro","Matt Taddy"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16566","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b0e7340e886c77ba","title":"Good Booms, Bad Booms","abstract":"Credit booms are not rare, some end in a crisis (bad booms) whereas others do not (good booms). We document that credit booms start with an increase in productivity growth, which subsequently falls faster during bad booms. We develop a model in which a crisis happens when a credit boom transits toward an information regime with careful examination of collateral. As this examination is more valuable when collateral backs projects with low productivity, crises are more likely during booms that display larger productivity declines. We test the main predictions of the model and identify the default probability as the main component of measured productivity that lies behind crises.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Gary Gorton","Guillermo Ordóñez"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy058","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b0e7afe0e1d1d4c4","title":"Internet development and entrepreneurship","abstract":"We examine the relationship between Internet development and entrepreneurship in China, using survey data from the China Family Panel Studies on individual entrepreneurship and administrative data on new firm registration. Employing instrumental variable (IV) and difference-in-differences (DID) approaches to address the endogeneity of Internet development, we find that Internet development increases the likelihood of individual entrepreneurship and the number of new firm registrations. Our IV model suggests that a one standard deviation increase in the Internet development index increases the likelihood of becoming an entrepreneur by 0.588 standard deviations. Our DID model finds that the Broadband China Program – the inaugural national broadband infrastructure initiative – increases annual new firm registrations by 14,358 in the selected prefectures. These results are robust to a battery of robustness checks. We find that improved access to information and finance are the key mechanisms through which Internet development affects entrepreneurship.","wordCount":146,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Jia Guo","Zhiming Cheng","Ben Zhe Wang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102280","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b0f8a63777ee53d7","title":"Durable goods monopoly with stochastic costs","abstract":"I study the problem of a durable goods monopolist who lacks commitment power and whose marginal cost of production varies stochastically over time. I show that a monopolist with stochastic costs usually serves the different types of consumers at different times and charges them different prices. When the distribution of consumer valuations is discrete, the monopolist exercises market power and there is inefficient delay. When there is a continuum of types, the monopolist cannot extract rents and the market outcome is efficient.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Juan Ortner"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1886","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b0fd79a82c18c872","title":"Consistency without Inference: Instrumental Variables in Practical Application","abstract":"I use Monte Carlo simulations, the jackknife and multiple forms of the bootstrap to study a comprehensive sample of 1309 instrumental variables regressions in 30 papers published in the journals of the American Economic Association. Monte Carlo simulations based upon published regressions show that non-iid error processes in highly leveraged regressions, both prominent features of published work, adversely affect the size and power of IV tests, while increasing the bias and mean squared error of IV relative to OLS. Weak instrument pre-tests based upon F-statistics are found to be largely uninformative of both size and bias. In published papers IV has little power as, despite producing substantively different estimates, it rarely rejects the OLS point estimate or the null that OLS is unbiased, while the statistical significance of excluded instruments is exaggerated.","wordCount":132,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Alwyn Young"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104112","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b102a5fefdc1abe9","title":"Spillover effects of accessory dwelling unit development","abstract":"Promoting accessory dwelling units (ADUs), small residential backyard units, is one way that state and local governments have attempted to boost housing supply amid rising housing costs. However, homeowners worry about the impact on property values due to increased population and density. This paper studies the effect of ADU development on neighboring property values using an instrumental variable approach. I find that a 0.5 percentage point increase (the mean ADU concentration over the sample period of 2013–2021) in ADU density leads to a 3% decrease in nearby property prices. The negative spillover effects remain consistent within a 300-meter radius, after which they become statistically insignificant. The results are robust across alternative specifications and samples and the adverse effects of ADUs are more pronounced for properties with smaller lot sizes and those in low- and middle-rent neighborhoods. I provide evidence that ADU growth contributes to neighborhood externalities, including increased parking citations, domestic violence reports, illegal dumping, and neighborhood service requests, while showing no significant effects on overall or property crime.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Idil Tanrisever"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104136","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b103ed9b15f7af47","title":"Labor market rigidities and misallocation: Evidence from a natural experiment","abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of labor market rigidities on labor misallocation. To this end, we use a recent policy change in Belgium, leading to an increase in employment protection for blue-collar workers and a decrease in employment protection for white-collar workers. The wedge between marginal product and marginal cost - the gap - is used as a measure for misallocation. Using a rich data set of the universe of Belgian firms, evidence shows that a firm with 90% blue-collar workers experienced after the policy change an increase in the gap of 3300 euro relative to a firm with 10% of blue-collar workers.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Dinara Alpysbayeva","Stijn Vanormelingen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102229","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b111123cfd5c162e","title":"The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks","abstract":"This paper examines the economic consequences of terror attacks by exploiting the inherent randomness in the success or failure of terror attacks. The findings suggest that successful attacks, in comparison to failed attacks, reduce the number of jobs and total earnings in targeted counties by approximately 2 percent in the years following the attack. Analyzing the channels, I find that successful attacks affect, in particular, specific industries such as housing. Last, I show that successful attacks receive more media coverage and increase levels of consumer pessimism in terms of business conditions and buying conditions.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Abel Brodeur"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/app.20160556","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1139818670f22ee","title":"The Impact of Insurance Coverage on Utilization of Prescription Contraceptives: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act","abstract":"The Affordable Care Act (ACA) mandates that prescription contraceptives be covered by private health insurance plans with no cost sharing. Using medical and prescription claims from a large national insurer, I estimate individual claim rates and out-of-pocket (OOP) costs of prescription contraceptives for 329,642 women aged 13 to 45 who were enrolled in private health insurance between January 2008 and December 2013. I find that OOP spending on contraceptives has decreased sharply since the implementation of the ACA mandate. Using a difference-in-difference model that leverages employer level variation in compliance with the mandate, I estimate the effect of the mandate on use of both short- and long-term methods of prescription birth control. I find that the mandate has increased insurance claims for short-term contraceptive methods (the pill, patch, ring, shot, diaphragms/cervical caps, and prescription emergency contraception) by 4.8 percent and increased initiation of long-term methods (intrauterine devices, implant, or sterilization) by 15.8 percent. Using data from a national survey of reproductive age women during this same time period, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the mandate increased total use of any method of prescription contraceptive use by 2.95 percentage points among privately insured women in 2013, or a 6.57 percent relative increase. These increases in use of prescription contraceptives among privately insured women in the United States as a result of the ACA mandate have important potential implications for fertility rates, health care spending, and economic outcomes for women and their families.","wordCount":241,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Nora V. Becker"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22064","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b116cda07676cdc4","title":"Systematic staleness","abstract":"Asset prices are stale. We define a measure of systematic (market-wide) staleness as the percentage of small price adjustments across multiple assets. A notion of idiosyncratic (asset-specific) staleness is also established. For both systematic and idiosyncratic staleness, we provide a limit theory based on joint asymptotics relying on increasingly-frequent observations over a fixed time span and an increasing number of assets. Using systematic and idiosyncratic staleness as moment conditions, we introduce novel structural estimates of systematic and idiosyncratic measures of liquidity obtained from transaction prices only. The economic signal contained in the structural estimates is assessed by virtue of suitable metrics.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Federico M. Bandi","Davide Pirino","Roberto Renò"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105522","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b118a2f3ea7a28c9","title":"When Time Binds: Substitutes for Household Production, Returns to Working Long Hours, and the Skilled Gender Wage Gap","abstract":"We provide evidence that constraints that prevent highly skilled women from working long hours hinder gender pay equality. We show that relaxing one such constraint by increasing the supply of substitutes for household production—proxied by intercity variation in predicted low-skilled immigration—increases the relative earnings of women in occupations that disproportionately reward overwork. Low-skilled immigration inflows induce young women to enter occupations with higher returns to overwork and shift women toward higher quantiles of the male wage distribution. The share of women in the top decile remains unaffected, suggesting that other barriers prevent women from reaching the very top.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Patricia Cortés","Jessica Pan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700185","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b11aa9be2575f265","title":"Prospect Theory and Stock Returns: An Empirical Test","abstract":"We test the hypothesis that, when thinking about allocating money to a stock, investors mentally represent the stock by the distribution of its past returns and then evaluate this distribution in the way described by prospect theory. In a simple model of asset prices where some investors think in this way, a stock whose past return dis-tribution has a high (low) prospect theory value earns a low (high) subsequent return, on average. We find empirical support for this prediction in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns, particularly among small-capitalization stocks where less sophisticated investors are likely to have a bigger impact on prices. We repeat our tests in 46 inter-national stock markets and find a similar pattern in a majority of these markets. JEL classification: D03","wordCount":126,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Nicholas Barberis","Abhiroop Mukherjee","Baolian Wang"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw049","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b11f8ed43f245db7","title":"Heterogeneous Agglomeration","abstract":"Many prior treatments of agglomeration explicitly or implicitly assume that all industries agglomerate for the same reasons. This paper uses U.K. establishment-level coagglomeration data to document substantial heterogeneity across industries in the microfoundations of agglomeration economies. It finds robust evidence of organizational and adaptive agglomeration forces as discussed by Chinitz (1961), Vernon (1960), and Jacobs (1969). These forces interact with the traditional Marshallian (1890) factors of input sharing, labor pooling, and knowledge spillovers, establishing a previously unrecognized complementarity between the approaches of Marshall and Jacobs, as well as others, to the analysis of agglomeration.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Giulia Faggio","Olmo Silva","William C. Strange"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00604","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b129a0797193d4dc","title":"Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes","abstract":"To estimate the causal effect of refugee migration on voting outcomes in parliamentary and municipal elections in Denmark, our study is the first that addresses the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting a policy that assigned refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. We find that in all but the most urban municipalities, allocation of larger refugee shares between electoral cycles leads to an increase in the vote share for right-leaning parties with an anti-immigration agenda, and we show large differences in voters’ responses to refugee allocation according to pre-policy municipal characteristics. However, in the largest and urban municipalities, refugee allocation has—if anything—the opposite effect on vote shares for anti-immigration parties. This coincides with a sharp divide in attitudes to refugees between urban and rural populations, which may be partly explained by distinctive interactions between natives and those with different background in cities and rural areas. Refugee allocation also has a large impact on the anti-immigration parties’ choice of where to stand for municipal election, and we provide some evidence that it influences voter turnout.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Christian Dustmann","Kristīne Vasiļjeva","Anna Piil Damm"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy047","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b12f3f4fa9bb0cd7","title":"Learning The Hard Way: The Effect of Violent Conflict on Student Academic Achievement","abstract":"We study the effect of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict on various education outcomes for Palestinian high school students in the West Bank during the Second Intifada (2000–2006). Exploiting within-school variation in the number of conflict-related Palestinian fatalities during the academic year, we show that the conflict reduces the probability of passing the final exam, the total test score, and the probability of being admitted to university. The effect of conflict varies with the type and the timing of the violent events the student is exposed to and it is not significant for students in the upper tail of the test score distribution. We discuss various possible transmission mechanisms explaining our main result. Evidence suggests a role for both the conflict-induced deterioration of school infrastructures and the worsening in the student's psychological well-being due to direct exposure to violent events.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Tilman Brück","Michele Di Maio","Sami H. Miaari"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy051","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b131c06bede2192b","title":"Governance quality, remittances and their implications for food and nutrition security in Sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"Despite impressive progress in the fight against malnutrition and hunger in recent years, food and nutrition insecurity remains a major concern in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. In this study, we employ a panel data covering 15 SSA countries from 1996 to 2015 to investigate the growth effects of remittances and quality of governance on food and nutrition security, proxied by the average value of food production and the average dietary energy supply adequacy, respectively. We use a dynamic empirical model based on system GMM to control for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables. The empirical results emanating from our analysis show that the interaction of remittances and the composite index of governance quality exerts positive and significant effects on the average value of food production, and also contributes to the improvement of average dietary energy supply adequacy in SSA. In addition, the control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and rule of law scores increase both measures of food and nutrition security. Albeit, the contribution of control over corruption score is relatively the largest as compared to other indicators of governance.","wordCount":184,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Adebayo Ogunniyi","George Mavrotas","Kehinde Oluseyi Olagunju","Olusegun Fadare","Adedoyin Mistura Rufai"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104752","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-b135c4929296f918","title":"Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity","abstract":"This study provides new evidence on how labour market rigidities affect the transmission of fiscal consolidations using a sample of 17 OECD countries. Owing to a novel empirical approach, the outcomes of consolidations are modelled as a function of employment and wage rigidities. The evidence confirms that tax-based consolidations are distortionary, while expenditure-based consolidations have wealth effects. These effects are then magnified by flexible employment and rigid wages, while they are moderated by rigid employment and flexible wages. This indicates that labour market conditions influence how fiscal consolidation is propagated in the economy by affecting both the magnitude and the transmission channels of consolidation plans. This result has crucial policy implications and suggests that the design of consolidation plans should account for the labour market structure.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Andrea Tafuro"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103495","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b167984d2e685aca","title":"Women’s empowerment boosts the gains in dietary diversity from agricultural technology adoption in rural Kenya","abstract":"Using new survey data from rural Kenya, this paper assesses the moderating effect of women’s empowerment on the relationship between agricultural technology adoption and women’s dietary diversity. We use a multiple treatment endogenous switching regression framework to control for potential endogeneity of women’s empowerment and technology adoption. We find that women’s empowerment has a positive and significant effect on the women’s dietary diversity score regardless of technology adoption status. We further show that women’s empowerment enhances the positive effects of technology adoption on women’s dietary diversity. Although technology adoption has a positive impact on women’s dietary diversity regardless of empowerment status, its effect is stronger for households with empowered vs. disempowered women. Study results suggest that individual and household welfare could be enhanced to a greater degree through interventions that promote women’s empowerment and technology adoption simultaneously rather than separately.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Menale Kassie","Monica Fisher","Geoffrey Muricho","Gracious Diiro"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101957","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b16f988236b2ade0","title":"The effects of uncertainty on market liquidity: Evidence from Hurricane Sandy","abstract":"We test the effects of uncertainty on market liquidity using Hurricane Sandy as a natural experiment. Given the unprecedented strength, scale, and nature of the storm, the potential damages of a landfall near the Greater New York area were unpredictable and therefore uncertain. Using a difference-in-differences setting, we compare the market reactions of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with and without properties in the widely published evacuation zone of New York City prior to landfall. We find relatively less trading and wider bid-ask spreads in affected REITs. The results confirm theory on the detrimental effects of uncertainty on market functioning.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Dominik Rehse","Ryan Riordan","Nico B. Rottke","Joachim Zietz"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.04.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1711237e23711cd","title":"Discounting health and money: New evidence using a more robust method","abstract":"This study compares discounting for money and health in a field study. We applied the direct method, which measures discounting independent of utility, in a representative French sample, interviewed at home by professional interviewers. We found more discounting for money than for health. The median discount rates (6.5% for money and 2.2% for health) were close to market interest rates, suggesting that at the aggregate level the direct method solves the puzzle of unrealistically high discount rates typically observed in applied economics. Constant discounting fitted the data better than the hyperbolic discounting models that we considered. The substantial individual heterogeneity in discounting was correlated with age and occupation.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Arthur E. Attema","Han Bleichrodt","Olivier L’Haridon","Patrick Peretti‐Watel","Valérie Seror"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9279-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b17b5be21a16bc6f","title":"‘Everybody’s doing it’: on the persistence of bad social norms","abstract":"We investigate how information about the preferences of others affects the persistence of ‘bad’ social norms. One view is that bad norms thrive even when people are informed of the preferences of others, since the bad norm is an equilibrium of a coordination game. The other view is based on pluralistic ignorance, in which uncertainty about others’ preferences is crucial. In an experiment, we find clear support for the pluralistic ignorance perspective . In addition, the strength of social interactions is important for a bad norm to persist. These findings help in understanding the causes of such bad norms, and in designing interventions to change them.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["David Smerdon","Theo Offerman","Uri Gneezy"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09616-z","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b181109582aaf477","title":"How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial","abstract":"We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optimistic about their real income and aggregate spending when they decrease their inflation expectations. We find little role for cognitive or financial constraints in explaining spending responses.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Olivier Coibion","Dimitris Georgarakos","Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Maarten van Rooij"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200445","license":"cc-by-sa"},{"id":"public-b182f4eb618492fc","title":"The diversification benefits and policy risks of accessing China’s stock market","abstract":"China’s stock market (the “A share market”) has a lower correlation with the global market and is less affected by international financial contagions than any other major economy. The inclusion of mainland China stocks into an international portfolio increases its Sharpe ratio. However, we find that Chinese stocks providing the most diversification benefits also carry the most policy risk for international investors. Holding Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong does not reap the same diversification benefits. While global market integration and the increase in foreign ownership can diminish diversification benefits, mainland China stocks still provide valuable diversification opportunities for international investors up till the most recent time in late 2010s.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Chenyu Shan","Dragon Yongjun Tang","Sarah Qian Wang","Chang Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.01.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b186d24eb4aef6ac","title":"Product Market Competition in a World of Cross-Ownership: Evidence from Institutional Blockholdings","abstract":"We analyze the effects of institutional cross-ownership of same-industry firms on product market performance and behavior. Our results show that cross-held firms experience significantly higher market share growth than do non-cross-held firms. We establish causality by relying on a difference-in-differences approach based on the quasi-natural experiment of financial institution mergers. We also find evidence suggesting that institutional cross-ownership facilitates explicit forms of product market collaboration (such as within-industry joint ventures, strategic alliances, or within-industry acquisitions) and improves innovation productivity and operating profitability. Overall, our evidence indicates that cross-ownership by institutional blockholders offers strategic benefits by fostering product market coordination.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jie He","Jiekun Huang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx028","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b189426a66a09bdc","title":"Trends in Life Expectancy by Income and the Role of Specific Causes of Death","abstract":"This study explores how life expectancy at age 35 has evolved across the income distribution in Sweden over time. We examine individual income for men 1970–2007 and family income for both men and women 1980–2007. During this period, income inequality increased in most western countries, but especially so in Sweden. Drawing on a large sample of the Swedish population, our results show that the gap in life expectancy between the richest and poorest fifths of the income distribution also increased. This was the case both for individual and family income. The increase was larger for men than for women, but the only group with stagnant life expectancy at age 35 was women in the lowest income quintile group. Between 1986 and 2007, the difference between the lowest and highest family income quintiles increased by about one year for women and by almost two years for men. The causes of death that most significantly contributed to the increased disparities among women were circulatory and respiratory diseases. For men, circulatory disease mortality alone caused most of the increased disparities.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Karin Hederos","Markus Jäntti","Lena Lindahl","Jenny Torssander"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12224","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b18d0d5786af1b8d","title":"Corruption, climate and the energy-environment-growth nexus","abstract":"This paper examines the causal relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in high-income and upper-middle-income countries using the simultaneous equations framework, with data from 1985 to 2011. By taking institutional quality (measured by the level of corruption) and climate (measured by average temperatures over the winter and summer months) into account, this is the first study to incorporate both of these factors into a simultaneous equations model within the energy-environment-growth nexus. The dependent variables in the system of three simultaneous equations are real gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption and CO2 emissions as a proxy for air pollution. The results have two important implications. First, they document a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and energy consumption but do not provide support for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. This is revolutionary in the sense that it indicates that high-income and upper-middle-income countries base their economic growth on a feedback relationship with energy consumption and that the ensuing pollution has not yet reached a maximum point, even in these countries. Second, by implying that climate and weather variations are more important determinants of energy consumption and CO2 emissions than corruption, the results suggest that changes in institutional quality are likely to have only a limited impact on energy and environmental policies.","wordCount":215,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Heli Arminen","Angeliki N. Menegaki"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.02.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b191517ec5b94341","title":"Can Financial Aid Help to Address the Growing Need for STEM Education? The Effects of Need‐Based Grants on the Completion of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Courses and Degrees","abstract":"Although workers in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields earn above‐average wages, the number of college graduates prepared for STEM jobs lags behind employer demand. A key question is how to recruit and retain college students in STEM majors. We offer new evidence on the role of financial aid in supporting STEM attainment. Exploiting a regression discontinuity that allows for causal inference, we find that eligibility for need‐based financial aid increased STEM credit completion by 20 to 35 percent among academically‐ready students in a large, public higher education system. These results appear to be driven by shifting students into STEM‐heavy course loads, suggesting aid availability impacts the academic choices students make after deciding to enroll. We also find suggestive evidence that aid offers increase degree attainment in STEM fields, although we cannot rule out null impacts on STEM degree production.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Benjamin Castleman","Bridget Terry Long","Zachary Mabel"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22039","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b1ad216eb9ea5bb1","title":"Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity: Evidence from China","abstract":"Using 2605 Chinese A-share listed companies in the mining, manufacturing, and energy production and supply sectors from 2009 to 2020, we examine the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and firm-level total factor productivity (TFP). The main findings are as follows: First, CPU significantly reduces firm-level TFP, with a greater impact on low-productivity firms than on high-productivity firms; second, the negative effect of CPU on firm-level TFP is most pronounced for non-state-owned, labor-intensive, and capital-intensive companies; third, CPU hinders research and development investment and reduces the amount of free cash flow. These results indicate that CPU exerts negative impacts on firm-level TFP mainly via its effects on the capital status of the companies. Our findings remain valid after a series of robustness tests and controlling for endogeneity. The government should introduce forward-looking climate policies to reduce the negative impact of policy uncertainty.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Xiaohang Ren","Xiao Zhang","Cheng Yan","Giray Gözgör"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106209","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1bbb6a2d5744359","title":"Linked samples and measurement error in historical US census data","abstract":"The quality of historical US census data is critical to the performance of linking algorithms. We use genealogical profiles to correct measurement error in census names and ages. Our findings suggest that one in every two records has an error in name or age, and human capital is correlated with lower error rates. While errors in age decline across subsequent census rounds from 1850 to 1930, errors in names do not exhibit such trends. Fixing all transcription errors, hence leaving only those errors made at the time of enumeration, would reduce error rates in names by 41 percent. Correcting all names and ages using genealogical profiles leads to 20%–36% more links and fewer false positives. Reassuringly, we find that reducing such errors has a negligible effect on estimates of intergenerational mobility.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Sam Il Myoung Hwang","Munir Squires"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101579","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1cf9fb4ecb9d475","title":"On the optimal design of biased contests","abstract":"This paper explores the optimal design of biased contests. A designer imposes an identity‐dependent treatment on contestants that varies the balance of the playing field. A generalized lottery contest typically yields no closed‐form equilibrium solutions, which nullifies the usual implicit programming approach to optimal contest design and limits analysis to restricted settings. We propose an alternative approach that allows us to circumvent this difficulty and characterize the optimum in a general setting under a wide array of objective functions without solving for the equilibrium explicitly. Our technique applies to a broad array of contest design problems, and the analysis it enables generates novel insights into incentive provisions in contests and their optimal design. For instance, we demonstrate that the conventional wisdom of leveling the playing field, which is obtained in limited settings in previous studies, does not generally hold.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Qiang Fu","Zenan Wu"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3672","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b1d1531e8c1c1822","title":"EU cohesion policy on the ground: Analyzing small-scale effects using satellite data","abstract":"We present a novel approach to analyze the impact of EU cohesion policy on local economic activity. For all municipalities in the border area of the Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland, we collect project-level data on EU funding in the period between 2007 and 2013. Using night light emission data as a proxy for economic development, we show that receiving a higher amount of EU funding is associated with increased economic activity at the municipal level. Our paper demonstrates that remote sensing data can provide an effective way to model local economic development also in Europe, where comprehensive cross-border data are not available at such a spatially granular level.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Julia Bachtrögler","Mathias Dolls","Carla Krolage","Paul A. Schule","Hannes Taubenböck","Matthias Weigand"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103954","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1db07b7ce6d88e4","title":"The impact of blockchain adoption on corporate investment efficiency","abstract":"This study investigates the impact of blockchain technology adoption on corporate investment efficiency. Utilizing a difference-in-differences methodology on an international sample of Forbes Global 2000 companies between 2012 and 2021, we find that firms implementing blockchain exhibit significantly higher investment efficiency post-adoption compared to non-adopters. This effect is more pronounced among ex ante informationally opaque firms. Our results suggest that blockchain adoption reduces overinvesting activities by restricting avenues for managerial discretion through enhanced transparency. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on blockchain's real economic impacts and inform blockchain adoption decisions by demonstrating investment efficiency benefits.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Mostafa Harakeh","Malek El Diri","Costas Lambrinoudakis","Nikolaos Tsileponis"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111603","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1e350d6622a38be","title":"Demand-driven integration and divorcement policy","abstract":"Traditionally, vertical integration has concerned industrial economists only insofar as it affects market outcomes, particularly prices. This paper considers reverse causality, from prices – and more generally, from demand – to integration in a model of a dynamic oligopoly. If integration is costly but enhances productive efficiency, then a trend of rising prices and increasing integration could be due to growing demand, in which case a divorcement policy of forced divestiture may be counterproductive. Divorcement can only help consumers if it undermines collusion, but then there are dominating policies. We discuss well-known divorcement episodes in retail gasoline and British beer, as well as other evidence, in light of the model.","wordCount":110,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Patrick Legros","Andrew F. Newman"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2016.04.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1e496626837de00","title":"Expectational equilibria in many-to-one matching models with contracts","abstract":"We introduce the notion of expectational equilibrium in a general specification of the many-to-one matching with contracts model. The endogenous variables in an expectational equilibrium are expectations about tradable contracts. Expectational equilibrium outcomes are equivalent to stable outcomes. Expectational equilibrium unifies all the other approaches used in the literature so far, in particular Walrasian equilibrium, Drèze equilibrium, and market clearing cutoffs. It also applies to cases where contracts do not involve money as well as cases where there is a smallest monetary unit of account.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["P. Jean‐Jacques Herings"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105799","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b1ec4456054a4a29","title":"An Experiment on Time Preference and Misprediction in Unpleasant Tasks","abstract":"We experimentally investigate the time-inconsistent taste for immediate gratification and future-preference misprediction. Across 7 weeks, 100 participants choose the number of unpleasant transcription tasks given various wages to complete immediately and at different future dates. Participants preferred 10–12% fewer tasks in the present compared to any future date, leading to an estimated $\\beta $ of $0.83$. Comparing predictions with actual immediate-work choices provides evidence against substantial sophistication, with estimates implying that participants understand no more than 24% of their present bias. Finally, we find evidence of “projection bias”: participants wished to complete 4–12% fewer tasks when decisions were elicited right after completing tasks rather than before.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Ned Augenblick","Matthew Rabin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b1f2eafd5db58dc1","title":"Advertising, Innovation, and Economic Growth","abstract":"This paper analyzes the implications of advertising for firm dynamics and economic growth through its interaction with R&D. We develop a model of endogenous growth with firm heterogeneity that incorporates advertising decisions and calibrate it to match several empirical regularities across firm size. Our model provides microfoundations for the empirically observed negative relationship between both firm R&D intensity and growth and firm size. In the calibrated model, about half of the deviation from proportional firm growth is attributed to our novel advertising channel. In addition, R&D and advertising are substitutes, a prediction for which we find evidence in the data.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Laurent Cavenaile","Pau Roldan-Blanco"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180461","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b1f5ede3cd368242","title":"Optimal allocations with <i>α</i>‐MaxMin utilities, Choquet expected utilities, and prospect theory","abstract":"The analysis of optimal risk sharing has been thus far largely restricted to nonexpected utility models with concave utility functions, where concavity is an expression of ambiguity aversion and/or risk aversion. This paper extends the analysis to α ‐maxmin expected utility, Choquet expected utility, and cumulative prospect theory, which accommodate ambiguity seeking and risk seeking attitudes. We introduce a novel methodology of quasidifferential calculus of Demyanov and Rubinov (1986, 1992) and argue that it is particularly well suited for the analysis of these three classes of utility functions, which are neither concave nor differentiable. We provide characterizations of quasidifferentials of these utility functions, derive first‐order conditions for Pareto optimal allocations under uncertainty, and analyze implications of these conditions for risk sharing with and without aggregate risk.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Patrick Beißner","Jan Werner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te5060","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b1fce08d4f818282","title":"Customer Discrimination: Evidence from Israel","abstract":"This paper studies customer discrimination against Arab workers in the Israeli market for labor-intensive services. Relying on surveys, field data, and a natural experiment, we provide evidence consistent with Becker’s customer discrimination model. First, a significant share of Jewish customers prefer to receive labor-intensive services from firms employing Jewish rather than Arab workers; these preferences are most strongly linked to concerns for personal safety. Second, customer preferences affect firms’ hiring decisions. Third, firms employing Arab workers charge significantly lower service prices than those employing only Jewish workers.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Revital Bar","Asaf Zussman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692510","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b1ffe9001e553377","title":"Gender equality in Asia and Europe during the 20th century: The role of socialism","abstract":"Gender equality in health and education improved in socialist states. Whether socialism improved gender equality, or whether the double-burden effect of socialism lowered gender equality, is an unresolved debate. A novel indicator allows to address this question for 88 countries during the 1910s to 1980s period: the adjusted height gap between males and females. Both biological and economic determinants of height gaps need to be considered. The proposed measure is validated through comparisons with relative life expectancies and the Gender Development Index (GDI), demonstrating its utility for tracing gender equality trends. Regression analysis reveals a significant relationship between socialism and improved gender equality within Europe and Asia. The results are confirmed by comparing them to gender equality in education. Robustness checks using staggered Difference-in-Differences methods and instrumental variable estimation suggest a robust and consistently positive relationship between socialism and gender equality.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Sophia Jung","Jörg Baten"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b2099cd97c096de4","title":"Welfare impacts of improved chickpea adoption: A pathway for rural development in Ethiopia?","abstract":"We analyse the impact of improved chickpea adoption on welfare in Ethiopia using three rounds of panel data. First, we estimate the determinants of improved chickpea adoption using a double hurdle model. We apply a control function approach with correlated random effects to control for possible endogeneity resulting from access to improved seed and technology transfer activities. To instrument for these variables we develop novel distance weighted measures of a household's neighbours' access to improved seed and technology transfer activities. Second, we estimate the impact of area under improved chickpea cultivation on household income and poverty. We apply a fixed effects instrumental variables approach where we use the predicted area under cultivation from the double hurdle model as an instrument for observed area under cultivation. We find that improved chickpea adoption significantly increases household income while also reducing household poverty. Finally, we disaggregate results by landholding to explore whether the impact of adoption has heterogeneous effects. Adoption favoured all but the largest landholders, for who the new technology did not have a significant impact on income. Overall, increasing access to improved chickpea appears a promising pathway for rural development in Ethiopia's chickpea growing regions.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Simone Verkaart","Bernard Munyua","Kai Mausch","Jeffrey D. Michler"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.11.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b213d3fe6dabec15","title":"Multiperiod portfolio optimization with multiple risky assets and general transaction costs","abstract":"We analyze the optimal portfolio policy for a multiperiod mean–variance investor facing multiple risky assets in the presence of general transaction costs. For proportional transaction costs, we give a closed-form expression for a no-trade region, shaped as a multi-dimensional parallelogram, and show how the optimal portfolio policy can be efficiently computed for many risky assets by solving a single quadratic program. For market impact costs, we show that at each period it is optimal to trade to the boundary of a state-dependent rebalancing region. Finally, we show empirically that the losses associated with ignoring transaction costs and behaving myopically may be large.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Xiaoling Mei","Victor DeMiguel","Francisco J. Nogales"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.002","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b21b8d109c16b3e4","title":"Effect of fiscal decentralization on pollution reduction: Firm-level evidence from China","abstract":"This study aims to investigate whether fiscal decentralization can reduce the pollution emissions intensity of firms. Little is known about how fiscal decentralization affects firm emissions. Based on a quasi-natural experiment of fiscal decentralization in China, that is, the province-managing-county reform, we use firm-level data from 1998 to 2016, and find that the reform can reduce pollution emissions intensity of firms by alleviating the fiscal stress experienced by county governments and intensifying competition between local governments. However, the mechanism is affected by the county-level economic development and migration barriers. The emissions reduction effect of reform is more pronounced in developed counties, and reducing migration barriers can amplify the effect of reform. In addition, we also reveal that the incumbent firms in reformed counties increase their efforts to reduce pollution, whereas the new entrants improve their clean production.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Weijie Jiang","Yidong Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106541","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b21bf7b69111e242","title":"From diversity to sustainability: Environmental and social spillover effects of board gender quotas","abstract":"Exploiting the staggered implementation of board gender quotas in Europe, this study examines their effect on firms’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. I find that firms’ environmental and social performance increases subsequent to the quotas and the rise of women’s representation on the board. I explore the mechanisms at play and show that the effect is driven by more ESG committees, improved innovation, resource use, and human rights considerations. The positive quota effect on environmental and social outcomes is strongest for less publicly exposed firms. My cross-sectional results suggest that the quota effect is partly crowded out by the positive sustainability effect of public pressure. Taken together, my results point towards positive spillover effects of a governance regulation on other sustainability dimensions. Further, they provide an understanding of the mechanisms behind these effects, relevant to policymakers and practitioners.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Eline Schoonjans"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.04.026","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b21e2764b48d20b0","title":"Sustainable and equitable pension reform for emerging economies: An application to Indonesia","abstract":"This study develops a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households to examine pension reforms in an emerging economy with large informal employment, using Indonesia as our exemplar economy. We calibrate the model with detailed household-level data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, along with macroeconomic and fiscal datasets, to capture the nation’s labour market structure, characterised by high informality. The study assesses the impacts of three key reforms, namely, raising formal workers’ pension access age, introducing a flat-rate social pension for informal labour and an overall reform combining the two. Although a social pension alone (set at 6.5% of per capita GDP) improves informal households’ welfare, it imposes a fiscal burden that reduces formal sector welfare. However, extending formal workforce participation alleviates fiscal pressure. This combined pension reform improves welfare and equity across both worker groups while remaining fiscally feasible.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["George Kudrna","John Piggott","Phitawat Poonpolkul"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107080","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b247b5520cc67bf1","title":"Take-Up and Targeting: Experimental Evidence from SNAP","abstract":"We develop a framework for welfare analysis of interventions designed to increase take-up of social safety net programs in the presence of potential behavioral biases. We calibrate the key parameters using a randomized field experiment in which 30,000 elderly individuals not enrolled in—but likely eligible for—the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are either provided with information that they are likely eligible, provided with this information and offered assistance in applying, or are in a “status quo” control group. Only 6% of the control group enrolls in SNAP over the next nine months, compared to 11% of the Information Only group and 18% of the Information Plus Assistance group. The individuals who apply or enroll in response to either intervention have higher net income and are less sick than the average enrollee in the control group. We present evidence consistent with the existence of optimization frictions that are greater for needier individuals, which suggests that the poor targeting properties of the interventions reduce their welfare benefits.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Amy Finkelstein","Matthew Notowidigdo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b24846bb2632fb35","title":"Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How Much Illegal Activity Is Financed through Cryptocurrencies?","abstract":"Cryptocurrencies are among the largest unregulated markets in the world. We find that approximately one-quarter of bitcoin users are involved in illegal activity. We estimate that around $76 billion of illegal activity per year involve bitcoin (46% of bitcoin transactions), which is close to the scale of the U.S. and European markets for illegal drugs. The illegal share of bitcoin activity declines with mainstream interest in bitcoin and with the emergence of more opaque cryptocurrencies. The techniques developed in this paper have applications in cryptocurrency surveillance. Our findings suggest that cryptocurrencies are transforming the black markets by enabling “black e-commerce.”","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Sean Foley","Jonathan R. Karlsen","Tālis J. Putniņš"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz015","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b248a72326e67584","title":"Energy efficiency and household behavior: the rebound effect in the residential sector","abstract":"This article investigates the rebound effect in residential heating, using a sample of 563,000 households in the Netherlands. Using instrumental variable and fixed‐effects approaches, we address potential endogeneity concerns. The results show a rebound effect of 26.7% among homeowners, and 41.3% among tenants. We corroborate the findings through a quasiexperimental analysis, using a large retrofit subsidy program. We also document significant heterogeneity in the rebound effect, determined by household wealth and income, and the actual energy use intensity. The findings in this article confirm the important role of household behavior in determining the outcomes of energy efficiency improvement programs.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Erdal Aydın","Nils Kok","Dirk Brounen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12190","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b265a6817940f21e","title":"Payment instruments, finance and development","abstract":"This paper studies the effects of a payment technology innovation (mobile money) on entrepreneurship and economic development in a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model. In the model mobile money dominates fiat money as a medium of exchange, since it avoids the risk of theft, but comes with electronic transaction costs. We show that entrepreneurs with higher productivity and access to trade credit are more likely to adopt mobile money as a payment instrument vis-a-vis suppliers. Calibrating the stationary equilibrium of the model to match firm-level data from Kenya, we show significant quantitative implications of mobile money for entrepreneurial growth and macroeconomic development.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Thorsten Beck","Haki Pamuk","Ravindra Ramrattan","Burak Uras"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.01.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b26735d81cbf7909","title":"Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns","abstract":"We revisit La Porta's finding that returns on stocks with the most optimistic analyst long‐term earnings growth forecasts are lower than those on stocks with the most pessimistic forecasts. We document the joint dynamics of fundamentals, expectations, and returns of these portfolios, and explain the facts using a model of belief formation based on the representativeness heuristic. Analysts forecast fundamentals from observed earnings growth, but overreact to news by exaggerating the probability of states that have become more likely. We find support for the model's predictions. A quantitative estimation of the model accounts for the key patterns in the data.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Pedro Bordalo","Nicola Gennaioli","RAFAEL LA PORTA","Andrei Shleifer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12833","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b273d0e64c3519c2","title":"Essential or not? Knowledge problems and <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 <scp>stay‐at‐home</scp> orders","abstract":"In response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, governments around the world issued stay‐at‐home orders, which required that individuals stay at home unless they were engaging in certain activities. Often these orders would designate certain goods and services as “essential” and would permit individuals engaged in the production, delivery, and purchase of those goods and services to leave their homes to do so. Implicit in these policies, of course, is the assumption that policymakers can know ex ante which goods and services are essential. As proved true while these stay‐at‐home orders were in effect, essentialness is necessarily subjective and depends on knowledge that is often dispersed, inarticulate, and changes over time. Policymakers, however, do not and often cannot have access to the local knowledge needed to determine ex ante which goods and services are essential, and they lack the feedback mechanisms they would need to adroitly adapt when circumstances change. This paper examines these knowledge problems associated with designating certain goods and services as “essential” when crafting and implementing stay‐at‐home orders.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Virgil Henry Storr","Stefanie Haeffele-Balch","Jordan K. Lofthouse","Laura E. Grube"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12491","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b27e966225537604","title":"Does early child care affect children's development?","abstract":"We study how early child care (ECC) affects children's development in a marginal treatment effect framework that allows for rich forms of observed and unobserved effect heterogeneity. Exploiting a reform in Germany that induced school districts to expand ECC at different points in time, we find strong but diverging effects on children's motor and socio-emotional skills. Children who were most likely to attend ECC benefit in terms of their motor skill development. Children who were least likely to attend ECC gain in terms of their socio-emotional skill development, especially boys and children from disadvantaged families, such as those with low education or migration backgrounds. Simulating expansions of ECC, we find that a moderate expansion fosters motor skills for all children and language skills for boys and immigrant children. A progressive expansion of ECC improves all children's socio-emotional development but neither their motor skills nor their language skills.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Christina Felfe","Rafael Lalive"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.01.014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b282967cf7a2ab3e","title":"Air Pollution and Manufacturing Firm Productivity: Nationwide Estimates for China","abstract":"We provide nationwide causal estimates of air pollution's effect on short-run productivity for China's manufacturing sector from 1998 to 2007. Using thermal inversions as an instrument, a 1 µg/m3 decrease in PM2.5 increases productivity by 0.82% (elasticity of −0.44). Increased hiring attenuates the elasticity to −0.17. Differential effects of a trade shock on coastal versus inner regions imply a pollution elasticity of output of 1.43. Simulating a dynamic general-equilibrium model yields an output elasticity of −0.28 with respect to PM2.5. An exogenous 1% decrease in PM2.5 nationwide increases gross domestic product by 0.039%.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Shihe Fu","V. Brian Viard","Peng Zhang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b29332c28df8c8ba","title":"Patent Licensing and Capacity in a Cournot Model","abstract":"We consider the problem of patent licensing in a Cournot duopoly in which the innovator (patentee) is one of the firms and it is capacity constrained. We show that when the patentee can produce a relatively small (relatively large) quantity, it prefers licensing by means of a fixed fee (unit royalty). When the patentee can set two-part tariffs in the form of combinations of fixed fees and unit royalties, it charges a positive fixed fee if and only if it is limited to producing a relatively small quantity. We also show that with combinations of fixed fees and royalties, the royalty rate is lower than is true for the standard case.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Stefano Colombo","Luigi Filippini","Debapriya Sen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09886-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b293b0bf3bb3b2d6","title":"Old and Young Politicians","abstract":"We consider the role of a politician's age in Italian municipal governments. When the term limit is not binding, younger mayors engage in political budget cycles more often than older mayors. Thus younger politicians behave more strategically in response to electoral incentives, probably because they expect to have a longer political career and stronger career concerns. We discuss and rule out several alternative interpretations.","wordCount":64,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Alberto Alesina","Traviss Cassidy","Ugo Troiano"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12287","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b2a46bd368649fe4","title":"Discounting Disentangled","abstract":"The economic values of investing in long-term public projects are highly sensitive to the social discount rate (SDR). We surveyed over 200 experts to disentangle disagreement on the risk-free SDR into its component parts, including pure time preference, the wealth effect, and return to capital. We show that the majority of experts do not follow the simple Ramsey Rule, a widely used theoretical discounting framework, when recommending SDRs. Despite disagreement on discounting procedures and point values, we obtain a surprising degree of consensus among experts, with more than three-quarters finding the median risk-free SDR of 2 percent acceptable.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Moritz A. Drupp","Mark Freeman","Ben Groom","Frikk Nesje"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160240","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b2bebae17eaa9c02","title":"Urban population and amenities: The neoclassical model of location","abstract":"We develop a neoclassical general-equilibrium model to explain cross-metro variation in population and density. We provide new methods to estimate traded and non-traded productivities, and elasticities of housing and land supply, using density and land area data. From wage and housing cost indices, the model explains half of U.S. density and population variation and finds that quality of life determines location choices more than trade productivity; productivity and factor substitution in housing matter most, but are weak in nicer areas. Relaxing land use regulations would increase population in the West, raising both quality of life and productivity experienced by residents.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["David Albouy","Bryan A. Stuart"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12419","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b2c27fed6d328061","title":"A quantitative analysis of subsidy competition in the U.S.","abstract":"We use a quantitative economic geography model to explore subsidy competition among U.S. states. We ask what motivates state governments to subsidize firm relocations and quantify how strong their incentives are. We also characterize fully non-cooperative and cooperative subsidy choices and assess how far away we are from these extremes. We find that states have strong incentives to subsidize firm relocations in order to gain at the expense of other states. We also find that observed subsidies are closer to cooperative than non-cooperative subsidies but the potential losses from an escalation of subsidy competition are large.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Alessandro Ferrari","Ralph Ossa"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104919","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b2e071f0f073b2d2","title":"The formation of financial networks","abstract":"Modern banking systems are highly interconnected. Despite various benefits, linkages between banks carry the risk of contagion. In this article, I investigate whether banks can commit ex ante to mutually insure each other, when there is contagion risk in the financial system. I model banks' decisions to share this risk through bilateral agreements. A financial network that allows losses to be shared among various counterparties arises endogenously. I characterize the probability of systemic risk, defined as the event that contagion occurs conditional on one bank failing, in equilibrium interbank networks. I show that there exist equilibria in which contagion does not occur.","wordCount":102,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Ana Babus"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12126","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b2f2c64696c4cb9b","title":"Is there a diminishing willingness to pay for consumption amenities as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic?","abstract":"We employ the Covid-19 pandemic as an unanticipated event in order to investigate the willingness to pay for consumption amenities such as restaurants, cinemas and theaters. We use a hedonic pricing model in combination with a time-gradient difference-in-difference approach. Our data set contains virtually all apartments for sale in the larger Stockholm area. We use a very detailed and flexible definition of the density of consumption amenities based on the exact location of these amenities and the walking distance from the apartments to these amenities. Although there are differences between specifications, we find a decrease of 3.9 percent of apartments that we label as amenity rich. Based on the average apartment price, this equals a drop of 195,240 Swedish Kronor (or almost 22,000 US dollars).","wordCount":125,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Aico van Vuuren"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103858","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b2f5480690c13abd","title":"Duopolistic competition and monetary policy","abstract":"To consider the strategic pricing of duopolistic firms and its implications for monetary policy, this study constructs a tractable duopoly model with price stickiness. Dynamic strategic complementarity, in which an increase in a firm’s price increases the optimal price set by the rival firm in the following periods, increases steady-state price and the real effect of monetary policy. However, when temporary sales arise as a mixed strategy, the real effect of monetary policy decreases considerably.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Kōzō Ueda"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b2f66dd34096072e","title":"Women's work and structural change: occupational structure in eighteenth‐century Spain","abstract":"This article uses the declarations of householders in the Cadaster of Ensenada (1750–5) to calculate labour participation rates for women and men from 22 localities in inland Spain. The article establishes the actual levels of women's market activity, which are much higher than commonly assumed. This unique source also makes it possible to analyse the region's occupational structure. Due to the labour‐intensive character of manufacturing work, the abundant supply of cheap labour, the diffusion of cottage industries, and the demand for commodities from internal and colonial markets, a large portion of the region's population worked in manufactures in the eighteenth century. This finding challenges standard interpretations of the Spanish economy at this time as mostly agricultural, which rely on sources that exclude women workers. Most workers in the manufacturing sector were women, and their market activity was concentrated in textile manufacturing. Once women are included in the analyses, the industrial share of employment follows a U‐shaped trajectory from the eighteenth century to the twentieth century. The article concludes that the standard interpretation of structural change, based solely on empirical evidence for male workers, gives a misleading picture of when, where, why, and how structural change occurred.","wordCount":196,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Carmen Sarasúa"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12733","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b30277b9f2c51a14","title":"Recombinant innovation and the boundaries of the firm","abstract":"Recombinant innovation, the combination of existing ideas, is important for technological progress; we want to understand how important market frictions are in stifling the transmission of ideas from one firm to another. Although the theoretical literature emphasizes the importance of these frictions, direct empirical evidence on them is limited. We use comprehensive data on patent applications from the European Patent Office and a multiple spells duration model to provide estimates that suggest that they are substantial. It is around 30% more costly to successfully discover and utilize new ideas created in another firm than in your own. This compares to the increased costs of accessing new ideas across national borders of around 7%, and across technologies of around 20%. These result point towards substantial imperfections in the market for technology","wordCount":130,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Rachel Griffith","Sokbae Lee","Bas Straathof"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2016.10.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b30334eb919bd167","title":"Material resources and well-being — Evidence from an Ethiopian housing lottery","abstract":"Do better material conditions improve well-being and mental health? Or does any positive relationship merely reflect that well-being promotes economic success? We compare winners and losers from a large Ethiopian housing lottery in a preregistered analysis. Winners gain access to better housing, experience a substantial increase in wealth, and report higher levels of overall life satisfaction and lower levels of financial distress. However, we find no average effects of winning on psychological distress. Our results suggest that not all aspects of well-being and mental health are equally sensitive to economic conditions.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Asbjørn Andersen","Andreas Kotsadam","Vincent Somville"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102619","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3225a2cf6529a0e","title":"Do Prostitution Laws Affect Rape Rates? Evidence from Europe","abstract":"We identify a causal effect of the liberalization and prohibition of commercial sex on rape rates, using staggered legislative changes in European countries. Liberalizing prostitution leads to a significant decrease in rape rates, while prohibiting it leads to a significant increase. The results are stronger when rape is less severely underreported and when it is more difficult for men to obtain sex via marriage or partnership. We also provide the first evidence for the asymmetric effect of prostitution regulation on rape rates: the magnitude of prostitution prohibition is much larger than that of prostitution liberalization. Placebo tests show that prostitution laws have no impact on nonsexual crimes. Overall, our results indicate that prostitution is a substitute for sexual violence and that the recent global trend of prohibiting commercial sex (especially the Nordic model) could have the unforeseen consequence of proliferating sexual violence. If you expel prostitutes from society, you will unsettle everything on account of lusts. (St. Augustine, in Richards 1995, p. 118)1","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Huasheng Gao","Vanya Petrova"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720583","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b32bbcb4e103286c","title":"Valuing diversification benefits through intercropping in Mediterranean agroecosystems: A choice experiment approach","abstract":"The agricultural sector faces a series of environmental challenges such as water and soil pollution, erosion or biodiversity loss, especially in monoculture systems. Alternatively, crop diversification is seen as an option to reduce negative impacts and to enhance agricultural Ecosystem Services (ES). Most of these ES, such as improving resilience, despite the benefits and the high social value, do not take part in the market. In this context, the present paper presents an analysis of social preferences regarding crop diversification practices in Mediterranean agroecosystems. To do so, a choice experiment has been developed to assess social demand for more welfare-improving agricultural cropping systems. Benefits were obtained from improving environmental and cultural ES provision due to intercropping, as crop diversification practices. The results show a strong social preference for crop diversification with regard to all the benefits considered in the experiment. In fact, the total economic value for non-market goods and services provided by intercropping, which ranges from 900 to 1400 €/ha/year, for some crops might be potentially higher than cropland financial benefits. These results highlight the social support for a change in agricultural model to reach sustainable agroecosystems, which is essential to ensure the success of agrarian and rural development policies.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Francisco Alcón","Cristina Marín-Miñano","José A. Zabala","María-Dolores de-Miguel","José Miguel Martínez Paz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106593","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3359130fb8b324e","title":"What drives robo-advice?","abstract":"The promise of robo-advisory firms is to provide low-cost access to diversified portfolios built according to academic literature on normative portfolio choice. We investigate the extent to which robo-advice aligns with normative advice. Using web-scraped portfolio recommendations for 151,200 investor types from a major US robo-advisor, we find that investment goals and time horizons significantly influence recommended equity allocations, while Merton-type hedging demands are largely ignored. Our results suggest that commercial robo-advisors prioritize simplicity and client perceptions over complex, normative models. By integrating data from the NFCS survey, we further explore how demographic factors influence the likelihood of using robo-advisory services. This study provides empirical evidence on how closely robo-advisory services align with normative portfolio theory, highlighting the practical compromises made in the pursuit of broad market appeal and user-friendly solutions.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Bernd Scherer","Sebastian Lehner"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101574","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b335aa5cd6eacd76","title":"Testing the Presence of Outliers in Regression Models","abstract":"We propose two sets of tests for the overall presence of outliers in regression models. First, ‘simple’ tests on whether the proportion and the number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values. Second, ‘scaling’ tests on whether the proportion of outliers decreases with the cut‐off used to detect outliers. We apply our tests to a panel difference‐in‐differences model of transport CO 2 emissions in response to the introduction of North America's first major carbon tax. Our tests show the presence of significant outliers in the un‐taxed control group, which results in an overestimation of the estimated impacts of the tax.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Xiyu Jiao","Felix Pretis"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12511","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b33b10104bb24f2a","title":"Policy initiatives and firms' access to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies","abstract":"This paper analyses the impact of policy initiatives co-ordinated by Asian national governments on firms' composition of external finance. Using a unique firm-level database of eight Asian countries- Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand over the period of 1996–2012 and a difference-in-differences approach, the results show a significant response of the debt composition to the policy change. We find that firms increased their uptake of long-term debt, while decreased their short-term debt. We also document that less risky and more profitable firms are more significantly affected by the policy change than riskier and less profitable firms. Finally, we show that the improved access to external finance after the policy initiative helped firms to raise their investment spending.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Udichibarna Bose","Ronald MacDonald","Serafeim Tsoukas"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.09.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b34d04d07144c124","title":"God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks","abstract":"We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Ajay Shenoy","Bhavyaa Sharma","Guanghong Xu","Rolly Kapoor","Haedong Aiden Rho","Kinpritma Sangha"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102575","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3573ffe4adf501f","title":"Mass vaccination and educational attainment: Evidence from the 1967–68 Measles Eradication Campaign","abstract":"We show that the first nationwide mass vaccination campaign against measles increased educational attainment in the United States. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in exposure to the childhood disease across states right before the Measles Eradication Campaign of 1967-68, which reduced reported measles incidence by 90 percent within two years. Our results suggest that mass vaccination against measles increased the years of education on average by about 0.1 years in the affected cohorts. We also find tentative evidence that the college graduation rate of men increased.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Philipp Barteska","Sonja Dobkowitz","Maarit Olkkola","Michael Rieser"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102828","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b35b54ef9b589daa","title":"Let Them Eat Lunch: The Impact of Universal Free Meals on Student Performance","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of extending free school lunch to all students, regardless of income, on academic performance in New York City middle schools. Using a difference‐in‐differences design and unique longitudinal, student‐level data, we derive credibly causal estimates of the impacts of “Universal Free Meals” (UFM) on test scores in English Language Arts (ELA) and mathematics, and participation in school lunch. We find UFM increases academic performance by as much as 0.083 standard deviations in math and 0.059 in ELA for non‐poor students, with smaller, statistically significant effects of 0.032 and 0.027 standard deviations in math and ELA for poor students. Further, UFM increases participation in school lunch by roughly 11.0 percentage points for non‐poor students and 5.4 percentage points for poor students. We then investigate the academic effects of school lunch participation per se , using UFM as an instrumental variable. Results indicate that increases in school lunch participation improve academic performance for both poor and non‐poor students; an additional lunch every two weeks increases test scores by roughly 0.08 standard deviations in math and 0.07 standard deviations in ELA. Finally, we explore potential unintended consequences for student weight outcomes, finding no evidence that UFM increases the probability that students are obese or overweight. We also find no evidence of increases in average body mass index (BMI). Instead, we find some evidence that participation in school lunch improves weight outcomes for non‐poor students. Results are robust to an array of alternative specifications and assumptions about the sample.","wordCount":249,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Amy Ellen Schwartz","Michah W. Rothbart"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22175","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b35be763c47646ca","title":"Occupational Licensing and Immigrants","abstract":"This study examines the incidence and impact of occupational licensing on immigrants using two sources of data: the Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that immigrants are significantly less likely to have a license than similar natives and that this gap is largest for men, workers in the highest education level, and nonnaturalized immigrants. The licensing rate increases with years since migration and shows large variation by immigrants’ region of origin. A lack of English proficiency reduces the probability that an immigrant has a license. The wage premium from having a license is much larger for immigrants than natives, though this may in part reflect licensing status proxying for English-language ability.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Hugh Cassidy","Tennecia Dacass"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/709834","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b35d1661d49d9391","title":"Political Connections and Allocative Distortions","abstract":"Exploiting a unique institutional setting in Korea, this paper documents that politicians can increase the amount of government resources allocated through their social networks to the benefit of private firms connected to these networks. After winning the election, the new president appoints members of his networks as CEOs of state‐owned firms that act as intermediaries in allocating government contracts to private firms. In turn, these state firms allocate significantly more procurement contracts to private firms with a CEO from the same network. Contracts allocated to connected private firms are executed systematically worse and exhibit more frequent cost increases through renegotiations.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["David Schoenherr"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12751","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b37ba9d475afe4a2","title":"Reserving Time for Daddy: The Consequences of Fathers’ Quotas","abstract":"“Daddy quotas” that reserve some parental leave for fathers are increasingly common in developed nations, but it is unclear whether fathers respond to the binding constraints or the labeling effects they produce. Furthermore, little is known about their long-term effects on household behavior. I examine the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan, which improved compensation and reserved 5 weeks of leave for fathers. I find that fathers’ participation increased by 250%, driven by higher benefits and the framing effect of labeling some weeks as “daddy only.” I also present causal evidence that paternity leave reduces sex specialization long after the leave period.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Ankita Patnaik"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703115","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b38459b781a4ba5f","title":"A classical model of education, growth, and distribution","abstract":"We develop a classical macroeconomic model to examine the growth and distributional consequences of education. Contrary to the received wisdom, we show that human capital accumulation is not necessarily growth-inducing and inequality-reducing. Expansive education policies may foster growth and reduce earning inequalities between workers, but only by transferring income from workers to capitalists. Further, the overall effect of an increase in education depends on the actual characteristics of the educational system and on the nature of labor market relations. Although the primary aim of the paper is theoretical, we argue that the model identifies some causal mechanisms that can contribute to shed light on recent stylized facts on growth, distribution, and education for the USA.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Amitava Krishna Dutt","Roberto Veneziani"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000755","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b3879b7c6c844383","title":"Flip-Flopping, Primary Visibility, and the Selection of Candidates","abstract":"We present an incomplete information model of two-stage elections in which candidates can choose different platforms in primaries and general elections. Voters do not directly observe the chosen platforms, but infer the candidates' ideologies from observing candidates' campaigns. The ability of voters to detect candidates' types depends on the visibility of the race. This model captures two patterns: the post-primary moderation effect, in which candidates pander to the party base during the primary and shift to the center in the general election; and the divisive-primary effect, which refers to the detrimental effect of hard-fought primaries on a party's general-election prospects.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Marina Agranov"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20130036","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b393cb03f73172a1","title":"Labor market effects of a work-first policy for refugees","abstract":"This study estimates the labor market effects of a work-first policy aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. The policy added new requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in the host country, Denmark. The requirements were added to an existing policy that emphasizes human capital investments in language training. The results show that the work-first policy speeded up entry into regular jobs for men, but they find work in precarious jobs with few hours. Long-run effects are uncertain since the policy crowds out language investments but raises enrollment in education. The policy had no or very small effects for women, which is partly explained by a lower treatment intensity for women.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Jacob Nielsen Arendt"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00808-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b39779f4615ca068","title":"Economic insecurity, racial anxiety, and right‐wing populism","abstract":"This paper studies the roles of economic insecurity (EI) and attitudes to racial inequality as predictors of voting patterns in the 2016 US election. Using data from the 2016 Voter Survey, we show that both perceptions of EI and concerns over anti‐White discrimination are significant correlates of Republican support. Effect sizes on racial attitudes are much larger than those found on EI, although the effects of insecurity become larger when accounting for both short‐term and long‐term economic stress. We also show there is very little heterogeneity in the effects of insecurity across racial groups—both Whites and minorities are more likely to vote Republican when experiencing short‐term insecurity. Our results suggest that policies that mitigate micro‐level economic risk may lessen support for populist political candidates.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Alessio Rebechi","Nicholas Rohde"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12599","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-b3a1045c05261b7c","title":"CEO personality traits and corporate value implication of acquisitions","abstract":"We investigate how CEO personality traits moderate the shareholder value creation from corporate acquisitions. First, we document that the likelihood of corporate acquisitions is positively associated with extravert and overconfident CEOs consistent with the evidence of prior literature. Second, and most importantly, we document that stock prices react positively to acquisitions undertaken by conscientious CEOs. This finding is in line with the view that the stock market favors the detailed and planned approach towards acquisitions of conscientious CEOs. Furthermore, stock prices react positively to acquisitions undertaken by extraverted and overconfident CEOs but only after a good prior corporate performance stretch. Our results illustrate that CEO traits are important for the value implication of corporate acquisitions.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Tom Aabo","Jan Hanousek","Christos Pantzalis","Jung Chul Park"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.05.006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b3a39e7e509aadf4","title":"Advisors with hidden motives","abstract":"An advisor discloses evidence about an object to a potential buyer, who doesn't know the object's value or the profitability of its sale (the advisor's motives). I characterize optimal disclosure rules that balance two goals: maximizing the overall probability of sale, and steering sales from lower- to higher-profitability objects. I consider the implications of a regulation that forces the advisor to always reveal her motives to the buyer. I show that whether such policies induce the advisor to disclose more evidence about the object's value hinges on the curvature of the buyer's demand for the object. This result refines our understanding of effective regulation of advisor-advisee communication with and without commitment.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Paula Onuchic"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.07.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3aa0697d62f84a8","title":"Judicial Response to the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines","abstract":"We study how the courts have responded to the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines issued by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. Looking at decided cases, we find that both the government and merging parties rely on the 2010 Guidelines in presenting their cases, each side respectively arguing that it should win if the court properly follows them . The 2010 Guidelines had the strongest effect on the case law in the area of unilateral effects, where a number of courts have embraced them in ways that clearly depart from earlier decisions. The case law now exhibits much greater receptivity to a government showing that the merger will lead to higher prices simply due to the loss of direct competition between the two merging firms. The courts also have followed the 2010 Guidelines by more willingly defining markets around targeted customers. We do not detect any effect on decided cases of the higher concentration thresholds found in the 2010 Guidelines. Both the average pre-merger level of market concentration and the average increase in market concentration alleged by the government in litigated cases to date declined after 2010 .","wordCount":191,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Carl Shapiro","Howard Shelanski"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09802-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3acca44c1f98476","title":"The place-based effects of police stations on crime: Evidence from station closures","abstract":"Many countries consolidate their police forces by closing down local police stations. Police stations represent an important and visible aspect of the organization of police forces. We provide novel evidence on the effect of centralizing police offices through the closure of local police stations on crime outcomes. Combining matching with a difference-in-differences specification, we find an increase in reported car theft and burglary in residential properties. Our results are consistent with a negative shift in perceived detection risks and are driven by heterogeneous station characteristics. We can rule out alternative explanations such as incapacitation, crime displacement, and changes in police employment or strategies at the regional level. We argue that criminals are less deterred due to a lower visibility of the local police.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Sebastian Blesse","André Diegmann"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104605","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3ae6c60e163b3cd","title":"Regulation-Induced Pollution Substitution","abstract":"Environmental regulations may cause firms to reoptimize over pollution inputs. By regulating air emissions in particular counties, the Clean Air Act (CAA) gives firms incentives to substitute toward polluting other media, like waterways, and toward pollution from plants in other counties. I test these hypotheses using the EPA Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Regulated plants increase their ratio of water-to-air emissions by 177% (102 log points) and their level of water emissions by 105% (72 log points). Regulation of an average plant increases air emissions at unregulated plants within the same firm by 11%.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Matthew Gibson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00797","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b3b4bb47685a9f52","title":"The effect of family size on intergenerational support for elderly parents and their life expectancy: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign","abstract":"This study documents increased life expectancy among elderly parents in China whose adult children were exposed to the “Later, Longer, Fewer” (LLF) family planning campaign in the 1970s. We leverage the variation in policy exposure at the province, urban, and birth-cohort level to understand the extent to which the LLF campaign has affected social networks and intergenerational support for elderly parents. The plausible channels that may impact life expectancy are living arrangements, visits, and financial transfers. Using the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we identify adults of childbearing age who were exposed to the LLF campaign and whose fertility was reduced. We find that greater LLF exposure increases the likelihood of the wife’s parents co-residing in her household. The increase in elderly support, however, is largely manifested through more visits and financial transfers from their sons’ families, which is unsurprising in a patrilineal society. Most gains are driven by rural households.","wordCount":153,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Cynthia Bansak","Eva Dziadula","Sophie Xuefei Wang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102528","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3b752d9d39fd46a","title":"Is Sell‐Side Research More Valuable in Bad Times?","abstract":"Because uncertainty is high in bad times, investors find it harder to assess firm prospects and hence should value analyst output more. However, higher uncertainty makes analysts’ tasks harder, so it is unclear whether analyst output is more valuable in bad times. We find that in bad times, analyst revisions have a larger stock‐price impact, earnings forecast errors per unit of uncertainty fall, and analyst reports are more frequent and longer. The increased impact of analysts is also more pronounced for harder‐to‐value firms. These results are consistent with analysts working harder and investors relying more on analysts in bad times.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Roger Loh","René M. Stulz"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12611","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b3bd8e2a541b9e9c","title":"Gender differences in job flexibility: Commutes and working hours after job loss","abstract":"This paper studies whether women and men cope with job loss differently. Using 2006-2017 Dutch administrative monthly microdata and a quasi-experimental empirical design involving job displacement because of firm bankruptcy, we find that displaced women are more likely than displaced men to find a flexible job with limited working hours and short commutes. Relative to displaced men, displaced women tend to acquire a job with an 8 percentage points larger loss in working hours and an 8 percentage points smaller increase in commuting. However, displaced women experience longer unemployment durations and comparable hourly wage losses. Job loss thus widens gender gaps in employment, working hours and commuting distance. Further, results point out that displaced expectant mothers experience relatively high losses in employment and working hours, amplifying child penalty effects. The findings show that firm bankruptcy for expectant mothers widens gender gaps in employment and working hours.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Jordy Meekes","Wolter Hassink"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103425","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3c27fab476c4d63","title":"Informal regulation by nongovernmental organizations enhances corporate compliance: Evidence from a nationwide randomized controlled trial in China","abstract":"As a key component of informal regulation, nongovernmental organization (NGO) monitoring reduces the cost of government oversight and increases the visibility of corporate performance to stakeholders, thereby promoting corporate compliance. We conduct a nationwide randomized controlled trial (RCT) to investigate the causal effect of NGO monitoring on corporate compliance as measured by the environmental information disclosure (EID) of China's highly polluting listed companies. We find that companies improve their EID after being alerted to NGO monitoring, especially private companies and companies with poor baseline performance. Both the threat of being reported to regulators and that of being reported to the market are effective ways of NGO monitoring, while companies with strong political connections show no response to regulatory threats. Our findings indicate the efficacy of informal regulations and the significance of NGOs in the promotion of corporate compliance.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Yaru Tang","Mengdi Liu","Fan Xia","Bing Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22530","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b3cd9afef10e3bc0","title":"Price Competition in a Vertizontally Differentiated Duopoly","abstract":"This paper develops a price competition duopoly model in which products are both horizontally and vertically differentiated. Firms each offer a standard and a premium product to buyers—some of whom are brand loyal. We establish the existence of a unique and symmetric competitive pricing equilibrium. Equilibrium prices are increasing in the degree of horizontal differentiation and the number of brand-loyal customers. The equilibrium price of the standard (premium) good is decreasing (increasing) in the quality difference and profits can increase in costs when this difference is large enough. If the pricing decision is taken at the product (division) level, then there is again a unique (and symmetric) competitive pricing equilibrium. Equilibrium prices and profits are lower than in the centralized case and demand for the standard product is higher when the quality difference is sufficiently large. Welfare is unambiguously lower with decentralized pricing.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Iwan Bos","Ronald Peeters"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09895-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3ebc42e3ad1df13","title":"AI innovation and the labor share in European regions","abstract":"This paper examines how the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) affects the distribution of income between capital and labor, and how these shifts contribute to regional income inequality. To investigate this issue, we analyze data from European regions dating back to 2000. We find that for every doubling of regional AI innovation, the labor share declines by 0.5% to 1.6%, potentially reducing it by 0.09 to 0.31 percentage points from an average of 52%, solely due to AI. This new technology has a particularly negative impact on high- and medium-skill workers, primarily through wage compression, while for low-skill workers, employment expansion induced by AI mildly offsets the associated wage decline. The effect of AI is not driven by other factors influencing regional development in Europe or by the concentration of the AI market.","wordCount":133,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Antonio Minniti","Klaus Prettner","Francesco Venturini"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105043","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b3f218340390c3b4","title":"The value of information disclosure: Evidence from mask consumption in China","abstract":"We study the effect of information provision on avoidance behavior, using China’s roll-out of air pollution information as a quasi-natural experiment. With a unique dataset of high-frequency mask purchase transactions, our difference-in-differences estimates show that the provision of air pollution information increases expenditures on PM2.5 respirators by 32%, which is mainly driven by improved information quality and the addition of PM2.5 index. The effect is enhanced by increased attention to pollution alerts and it is more pronounced during heavily polluted days. Our results shed light on the benefits of information provision through inducing avoidance behavior to reduce air pollution exposure.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Zhenxuan Wang","Junjie Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102865","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b405d7a647251838","title":"Consumption responses to inheritances: The role of durable goods","abstract":"Consumption responses are stronger among constrained households, in line with the life-cycle models of consumption. This paper studies the impact of inheritances, a key component in household wealth accumulation, on consumption. Specifically, we investigate how inheritances influence household consumption growth, distinguishing durable and nondurable goods. In doing so, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics spanning 2005–2019. The results reveal a positive effect of inheritances on household consumption of durable goods. Such an effect occurs immediately after receiving the inheritance and its average magnitude is about 27 %. Estimates also reveal that large inheritances significantly impact the consumption growth of durables, but also of non-durables, while small inheritances show no effects. Consumption responses are stronger among liquidity and borrowing constrained households, aligning with life-cycle models of consumption behavior. Insights inform planners by highlighting varied effects of inheritances on household consumption, particularly emphasizing the nuanced impact of inheritance size.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Ignacio Belloc","José Alberto Molina","Jorge Velilla"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b424f19d41b62b14","title":"Evaluating Public Programs with Close Substitutes: The Case of HeadStart","abstract":"We use data from the Head Start Impact Study (HSIS) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Head Start, the largest early childhood education program in the United States. Head Start draws roughly a third of its participants from competing preschool programs, many of which receive public funds. We show that accounting for the fiscal impacts of such program substitution pushes estimates of Head Start’s benefit-cost ratio well above one under a wide range of assumptions on the structure of the market for preschool services and the dollar value of test score gains. To parse the program’s test score impacts relative to home care and competing preschools, we selection-correct test scores in each care environment using excluded interactions between experimental assignments and household characteristics. We find that Head Start generates larger test score gains for children who would not otherwise attend preschool and for children who are less likely to participate in the program.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Patrick Kline","Christopher R. Walters"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b42c657d51048b3c","title":"Benchmarking private equity: The direct alpha method","abstract":"We propose a simple and intuitive measure of the annualized excess return of investments in private equity (PE) funds, as well as in similar vehicles that hold hard-to-values assets. Our ‘Direct Alpha’ method is well-founded in theory and dominates the existing approaches to convert fund lifetime returns into inputs amenable for portfolio-wide optimization. Existing Public Market Equivalent (PME) approaches are either heuristic or involve significant approximation errors. Using real-world PE fund cash flow data, we juxtapose Direct Alpha against nearly all PME methods that have been in broad use.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Oleg Gredil","Barry E Griffiths","Rüdiger Stucke"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102360","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b42c871f3f5c2717","title":"Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve","abstract":"The co-movement of US Treasury yields suggests a long-run equilibrium relationship. Traditional cointegrated systems need to assume that interest rates are unit roots and thus implying non-stationary and non-mean-reverting dynamics. We postulate and estimate a fractional cointegrated model (FCVAR) which allows for mean reverting though highly persistent patterns. Our results point to the existence of such mean-reverting fractional cointegration among Treasury yields. In terms of out-of-sample forecasting, the FCVAR soundly beats the I(0) VAR model across interest rate maturities and horizons and the I(1) cointegrated VAR across maturities and short-horizons. The implied US term premium –across different maturities– proves to be quite robust across subsamples and is less volatile than the classical I(0) stationary and I(1) unit root models. Our analysis highlights the role of real factors in shaping term premium dynamics and is extended to the UK and Germany yield curves.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Mirko Abbritti","Héctor Cárcel","Luis A. Gil-Alaña","Antonio Moreno"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106777","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b437b5e0472fac0c","title":"Income Inequality, Tax Policy, and Economic Growth","abstract":"We investigate how the reduction of income inequality through tax policy affects economic growth. Taxation at different points of the income distribution has heterogeneous impacts on households’ incentives to work, invest, and consume. Using US state‐level data and micro‐level household tax returns over the last three decades, we find that reducing income inequality between low and median income households improves economic growth. However, reducing income inequality through taxation between median and high‐income households reduces economic growth. These asymmetric economic growth effects are attributable both to supply‐side factors (i.e. changes in small business activity and labour supply) and to consumption demand.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Siddhartha Biswas","Indraneel Chakraborty","Rong Hai"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12485","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b43f392ca28505b4","title":"Stock Returns over the FOMC Cycle","abstract":"We document that since 1994, the equity premium is earned entirely in weeks 0, 2, 4, and 6 in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cycle time, that is, even weeks starting from the last FOMC meeting. We causally tie this fact to the Fed by studying intermeeting target changes, Fed funds futures, and internal Board of Governors meetings. The Fed has affected the stock market via unexpectedly accommodating policy, leading to large reductions in the equity premium. Evidence suggests systematic informal communication of Fed officials with the media and financial sector as a channel through which news about monetary policy has reached the market.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Anna Cieślak","Adair Morse","Annette Vissing‐Jørgensen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12818","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b450d27687a9cdb8","title":"Experimental evidence on the effects of means-tested public transportation subsidies on travel behavior","abstract":"Means-tested reduced transit fare programs are increasingly prevalent. This paper describes the results of a unique experiment in which a randomly selected group of low-income individuals in King County, Washington received up to six months of free public transportation. We leverage the experiment to explore how public transit's cost affects mobility. Using administrative data tracking transit card taps on King County's fleet of vehicles, we find that free fares sharply increase transit card use. Follow-up surveys corroborate an increase in travel by public transportation, but also indicate that some of the treatment effect on transit card use is driven by payment method substitution. Treatment effects on overall travel by any mode are less clear. Finally, we find little persistent impact of free fares on transit card use after the subsidy ends.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Rebecca Brough","Matthew Freedman","David C. Phillips"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103803","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b461bf47baaadfc4","title":"The gender gap in bank credit access","abstract":"We use a sample of over 80,000 Spanish companies started by a sole entrepreneur between 2004 and 2014, and distinguish between male and female entrepreneurs demand for credit, credit approval ratio, and credit performance. We find that female entrepreneurs who start a business are less likely to ask for a loan. Of the female entrepreneurs requesting a credit, the probability of obtaining one in the founding year is significantly lower than their male peers in the same industry. This lower credit access disappears over the subsequent years, once the company has a track record of profits and losses. We also observe that women-led companies that receive a loan in the founding year are less likely to default as compared to men-led companies. This superior performance disappears for subsequent years, coinciding with the disappearance of the lower credit access. Taking all these results together, we rule out both taste-based discrimination and statistical discrimination in the credit industry, and point to the possible presence of double standards which might be a consequence of implicit (unconscious) discrimination.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Pablo de Andrés","Ricardo Gimeno","Ruth Mateos de Cabo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101782","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b46b399351031af1","title":"Interest Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations","abstract":"We study the consequences of interest rate liberalization in a two-sector general equilibrium model of China. The model captures a key feature of China’s distorted financial system: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have greater incentive to expand production and easier access to credit than private firms. In this second-best environment, interest rate liberalization can improve capital allocations within each sector but can also exacerbate misallocations across sectors. Under calibrated parameters, the liberalization policy can reduce aggregate productivity and welfare unless other policy reforms are also implemented to alleviate SOEs’ distorted incentives or improve private firms’ credit access.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Zheng Liu","Pengfei Wang","Zhiwei Xu"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b478a91eb55f63f7","title":"Does terrorism make people pessimistic? Evidence from a natural experiment","abstract":"This paper uses a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of low-casualty terrorist attacks on pessimistic beliefs in Africa. Distinct from fear, pessimism has been found to hinder optimal economic decisions and well-being. By comparing survey responses of people interviewed in the same area immediately before and after a terrorist attack, we find that terrorism increases pessimism about future living conditions by 11 percentage points. The effect is not driven by the direct damages of attacks or people's expectations of the national economy, and is stronger for attacks targeting religious figures and among respondents living in rural areas. Further analysis suggests that this effect tends to shift people to more accurate beliefs. Our results thus show that even low-casualty terrorist attacks have a substantial impact on people's beliefs.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Shiqi Guo","Jiafu An"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102817","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b4795b10a72b409f","title":"Home country bias in international emissions trading: Evidence from the EU ETS","abstract":"We examine the pattern of allowance trades in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) using highly disaggregated trading data and identify a significant and robust home market bias. Our results point to informational transactions costs that increase when trading across national borders. The existing trade pattern in goods and services explains two thirds of the home bias, with the remainder due to other causes. Our finding suggests that firms make use of existing trade networks to overcome search costs in bilateral allowance trade. Since the home bias differs across firms, it follows that marginal abatement costs are not equalized across market participants of the EU ETS.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Beat Hintermann","Markus Ludwig"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101336","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b479a587a2828db5","title":"Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars","abstract":"We use the recent trade escalation between the USA and its trade partners to study whether retaliatory tariffs are politically targeted. We find comprehensive evidence using individual and aggregate voting data suggesting that retaliation is carefully targeted to hurt Trump. We develop a simulation approach to construct counterfactual retaliation responses allowing us to quantify the extent of political targeting while also studying potential trade-offs. China appears to place great emphasis on achieving maximal political targeting. The EU seems to have been successful in maximising political targeting while at the same time minimising the potential damage to its economy.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Thiemo Fetzer","Carlo Schwarz"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa122","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b47fb864229c1e3e","title":"Has R&D contributed to productivity growth in China? The role of basic, applied and experimental R&D","abstract":"Since the early 2000s, R&D expenditure in China has increased rapidly, with the country having the third highest R&D expenditure, next only to the OECD and USA, and having surpassed Japan since 2009. Furthermore, policies in China in recent years have emphasized the need to conduct more basic and applied R&D in order to overcome technological bottlenecks and risks in access to advanced technologies when faced with international geopolitical tension. However, in the meantime, the trend in measured total factor productivity (TFP) in China has been downward since 2010. A lack of TFP growth despite the significant investment in R&D raises the question of the impact of R&D expenditure on productivity growth in China. Therefore, this study aims to investigate this issue and estimate the effects of three types of R&D stocks (basic, applied and experimental R&D stock) on TFP in China, using newly constructed provincial panel data in China from 1998 to 2018. Various empirical models and control variables are adopted to take into account non-stationarity and spatial spill-over of the provincial R&D stock values over time. The analysis results are robust to various specifications and reveal a significant positive effect of overall R&D and experimental R&D on TFP in China, but basic R&D exerts no significant results, and the effects of applied R&D are mixed across specifications. Further analyses using the 1991–2018 national data demonstrated largely consistent results. These results suggest that experimental R&D has been crucial for enhancing TFP growth in China during the decades investigated, but evidence of basic and applied R&D driving TFP growth in China is lacking.","wordCount":263,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yixiao Zhou","Sudyumna Dahal"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102281","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b47fb90e90fc78b7","title":"Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation","abstract":"Trade and other economic sanctions are a common foreign policy instrument, but their imposition may induce smuggling. We develop and implement procedures to study smuggling after the food embargo imposed by Russia on Western countries after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. We construct predicted trade flows for the post-sanctions period using an estimated structural general equilibrium gravity model with many industry sectors and compare those predictions with actual trade flows. We identify a substantial value of suspicious trade flows which we associate with smuggling; especially importing banned goods through third countries such as Belarus. The structural gravity model systematically under-predicts trade volumes for country–product combinations used as channels for smuggling of the banned goods. We identify a quantity of smuggling equivalent to approximately 11 to 17 percent of the pre-embargo trade flows.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Vladimir Tyazhelnikov","John Romalis"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b47fce54ef237122","title":"Hospital coordination and integration with social care in England: The effect on post-operative length of stay","abstract":"In spite of significant policy interest in improving the integration of health and social care services, little is known about the economics of coordination across the two sectors. We specify a Markov queuing model and use data collected from administrative records to estimate the link between two proxy indicators of across-sector complexity of discharge arrangements and post-operative length of stay in hospital for older people undergoing hip replacements. The results suggest that the number of local authorities involved in care planning and commissioning of social care services for discharges from a given hospital is significantly positively correlated with longer post-operative lengths of stay. A particularly strong effect is found between variability through time in the number of authorities involved in discharges from a given hospital and lengths of stay. The results suggest that improving information systems and joint assessment processes used during the discharge of patients with social care needs is likely to achieve significant efficiency gains in the health care system as a whole.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["José‐Luis Fernández","Alistair McGuire","Maria Raikou"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.02.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b4897a45a4dcf71f","title":"Legislative bargaining with private information: A comparison of majority and unanimity rule","abstract":"We present a three-person, two-period bargaining game with private information. A single proposer is seeking to secure agreement to a proposal under either majority or unanimity rule. If the first period proposal fails, the game ends immediately with an exogenously given “breakdown” probability. Two responders have privately known disagreement payoffs. We characterize Bayesian equilibria in stagewise undominated strategies. Our central result is that responders have a signaling incentive to vote “no” on the first proposal under unanimity rule, whereas no such incentive exists under majority rule. The reason is that being perceived as a “high breakdown value type” is advantageous under unanimity rule, but disadvantageous under majority rule. As a consequence, responders are “more expensive” under unanimity rule and disagreement is more likely. These results confirm intuitions that have been stated informally before and in addition yield deeper insights into the underlying incentives and what they imply for optimal behavior in bargaining with private information.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["David Piazolo","Christoph Vanberg"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.07.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b48c2d182a43bb12","title":"The Transition to a Sustainable Prosperity-A Stock-Flow-Consistent Ecological Macroeconomic Model for Canada","abstract":"This paper presents a stock-flow consistent (SFC) macroeconomic simulation model for Canada. We use the model to generate three very different stories about the future of the Canadian economy, covering the half century from 2017 to 2067: a Base Case Scenario in which current trends and relationships are projected into the future, a Carbon Reduction Scenario in which measures are introduced specifically designed to reduce Canada's carbon emissions, and a Sustainable Prosperity Scenario which incorporates additional measures to improve environmental, social and financial conditions across society. The performance of the economy is tracked using two composite indicators constructed especially for this study: an environmental burden index (EBI) which describes the environmental performance of the model; and a composite sustainable prosperity index (SPI) which is based on a weighted average of seven economic, social and environmental performance indicators. Contrary to the widely accepted view, the results suggest that ‘green growth’ (in the Carbon Reduction Scenario) may be slower than ‘brown growth’. More importantly, we show (in the Sustainable Prosperity Scenario) that improved environmental and social outcomes are possible even as the growth rate declines to zero.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Tim Jackson","Peter A. Victor"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106787","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b4a294b76a5d5a67","title":"Risk, arbitrage, and spatial price relationships: Insights from China's hog market under the African Swine Fever","abstract":"Spatial market integration, an important means to increase market efficiency and boost economic development, is often affected by policy changes such as trade liberalization and trade restrictions. With unique weekly data on provincial hog prices, we use the 2018 outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and the subsequent ban on cross-province shipment of hogs as a natural experiment to study dynamic spatial mechanisms underlying market integration. We employ a high-dimensional spatial model to estimate pairwise inter-province price links over several periods around the ASF outbreak for 29 Chinese provinces. Regressions reveal that a greater inter-province distance weakens the spatial price links post-ban, but not before the ban, which indicates insufficient arbitrage under imperfect public information regarding ASF. The temporary market segmentation implies substantial dead-weight-loss. Our findings highlight the role of public information on risks in maintaining market integration and efficiency under supply-side disruptions.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Meilin Ma","Michael S. Delgado","H. Holly Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103200","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b4b13120fc17540b","title":"Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries","abstract":"Developing economies often borrow abroad in foreign currency, which exposes them to the problem of “original sin.” Although the literature on the issue is relatively extensive, there is limited discussion about the role of fiscal frameworks, such as fiscal rules, in addressing original sin. Using a panel of 59 developing countries from 1990-2020 and applying the entropy balancing method, this study reveals that fiscal rules play a crucial role in reducing government debt in foreign currency, and that the effects are statistically and economically significant and robust. Furthermore, we find that the effectiveness of fiscal rules in curbing original sin is enhanced by factors such as the strengthening of the rule itself, improved fiscal discipline before the reform’s adoption, financial development, financial openness, exchange rate flexibility, the level of economic development, and sound institutions.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Ablam Estel Apeti","Bao-We-Wal Bambe","Jean‐Louis Combes","Eyah Denise Edoh"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103600","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b4bd324dcd2db89f","title":"Inflation expectations as a policy tool?","abstract":"We assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes. We review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions. Empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, especially for firms. Two additional limitations prevent policy-makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectations. First, available surveys of firms' expectations are systematically deficient, which can only be addressed through the creation of large, nationally representative surveys of firms. Second, neither households' nor firms' expectations respond much to monetary policy announcements in low-inflation environments. We provide suggestions for how monetary policy-makers could pierce this veil of inattention through new communication strategies as well as the potential pitfalls to trying to do so.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Olivier Coibion","Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Saten Kumar","Mathieu Pedemonte"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b4c5254329f9bb1e","title":"The negative impact of disintegration on trade: The case of Brexit","abstract":"Using firm-level export and import transactions and by applying an event study methodology, we quantify the impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU’s single market and customs union on Spain-UK trade flows. We find that Spanish exports and imports to the UK decreased by 24% and 27%, respectively, compared to the period before the Brexit referendum. The probability of Spanish exporters and importers starting a trade relationship with the UK decreased and the probability of ending one increased. Products subject to sanitary and phytosanitary measures, stringent rules of origin, and whose technical standards had not been harmonized before disintegration experienced a stronger decline in trade flows. Large firms faced a more severe decrease in exports than small ones after disintegration.","wordCount":121,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Juan de Lucio","Raúl Mínguez","Asier Minondo","Francisco Requena Silvente"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104698","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b4d6128573d67c3c","title":"Face-to-Face Communication in Organizations","abstract":"Communication is integral to organizations and yet field evidence on the relation between communication and worker productivity remains scarce. We argue that a core role of communication is to transmit information that helps co-workers do their job better. We build a simple model in which workers choose the amount of communication by trading off this benefit against the time cost incurred by the sender, and use it to derive a set of empirical predictions. We then exploit a natural experiment in an organization where problems arrive and must be sequentially dealt with by two workers. For exogenous reasons, the first worker can sometimes communicate face-to-face with their colleague. Consistently with the predictions of our model, we find that: (1) the second worker works faster (at the cost of the first worker having less time to deal with incoming problems) when face-to-face communication is possible, (2) this effect is stronger when the second worker is busier and for homogenous and closely located teams, and (3) the (career) incentives of workers determine how much they communicate with their colleagues. We also find that workers partially internalise social outcomes in their communication decisions. Our findings illustrate how workers in teams adjust the amount of mutual communication to its costs and benefits.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Diego Battistón","Jordi Blanes i Vidal","Tom Kirchmaier"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa060","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b4d875441bcd2760","title":"The Geography of Financial Misconduct","abstract":"Financial misconduct (FM) rates differ widely between major U.S. cities, up to a factor of 3. Although spatial differences in enforcement and firm characteristics do not account for these patterns, city‐level norms appear to be very important. For example, FM rates are strongly related to other unethical behavior, involving politicians, doctors, and (potentially unfaithful) spouses, in the city.","wordCount":58,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Christopher Parsons","Johan Sulaeman","Sheridan Titman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","K","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12704","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b4da486a61e06f07","title":"Exploitative Innovation","abstract":"We analyze innovation incentives when firms can invest either in increasing the product's value (value-increasing innovation) or in increasing the hidden prices they collect from naive consumers (exploitative innovation). We show that if firms cannot return all profits from hidden prices by lowering transparent prices, innovation incentives are often stronger for exploitative than for value-increasing innovations, and are strong even for non-appropriable innovations. These results help explain why firms in the financial industry (e.g., credit-card issuers) have been willing to make innovations others could easily copy, and why these innovations often seem to have included exploitative features.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Paul Heidhues","Botond Kőszegi","Takeshi Murooka"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20140138","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b4dd4e5774ef8a0e","title":"Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies","abstract":"How do oil price fluctuations affect economic activity and policy in the context of oil-exporting emerging economies? Past research suggests that the output responses to oil price innovations are asymmetric in nature but does not directly test the asymmetry in the government expenditure adjustments triggered by the shock. Moreover, many studies quantifying these asymmetric responses are fraught with methodological concerns. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of such asymmetries by studying how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks. Our estimation employing unbiased methodologies allows us to be agnostic regarding asymmetries in the responses depending on the direction and size of the shock. Using data for a diverse group of emerging economies, we find substantial evidence for the presence of asymmetries. Country-specific factors and/or fiscal stabilization incentives are possible explanations for the asymmetric responses. We draw policy recommendations for understanding the growth process specific to resource-rich emerging economies.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Emmanuel Agboola","Rosen Azad Chowdhury","Bo Yang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106665","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b4e54ef08df7caf7","title":"Data assets, information uses, and operational efficiency","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of data assets on firms’ operational efficiency, aiming to show how data assets work in business operations and highlight their key value. Given the rich content, data assets can increase operational efficiency as it embeds firms with valuable information used to optimize resource deployment in production and improve customer relationship management. Using a sample of A-share listed firms in China from 2003 to 2019, we empirically show a consistent and significantly positive relationship between a text-based measure of data assets and operational efficiency. Moreover, the positive effect of data assets on operational efficiency is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), diversified firms with redundant internal information, and firms in a more complex external information environment (i.e. more volatile earnings of the industry or a larger dispersion of analysts’ forecasts). As further evidenced by higher turnover ratios of inventory and lower turnover ratios of accounts receivables in firms with data assets, we verify that data assets lead to efficient production management and flexible customer relationship management. Overall, these results suggest that data assets are valuable in the efficiency improvement of firms by facilitating information uses.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Changyu Hu","Yuetong Li","Xiaojia Zheng"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2084021","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b4e8e507132f44a6","title":"Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.","abstract":"Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes","Neeraj Kaushal","Ashley N. Muchow"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00845-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b4f571a5f6d9a07c","title":"Financial Risk Propensity, Business Cycles and Perceived Risk Exposure","abstract":"We analyse whether individual financial risk propensity changes over time with background financial conditions, as well as personal and subjective portfolio risk exposure. We elicit risk propensity from six different self‐assessed facets collected in a long panel data set from the DNB Household Survey, annually covering the period 1995–2015. Risk propensity is generally higher during periods of economic growth and lower during periods of recession, but is untrended when elicited, using questions referring to safe investments. Our risk propensity measure is also higher following positive stock market returns or subjectively large risk exposure in own past investments.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Alessandro Bucciol","Raffaele Miniaci"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12193","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b500068023f8f806","title":"Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity","abstract":"A recent trend in several low-income developing countries has been a rapid scaling-up of public investment. It is argued that in the presence of limited absorptive capacity countries are not able – in terms of skills, institutions, and management – to translate additional public investment into sustained output growth. We test for the presence of absorptive capacity constraints using a large dataset of World Bank investment projects, approved between 1970 and 2007 in 80 countries. Our results indicate that projects undertaken in periods of public investment scaling-up are less likely to be successful, although this effect is relatively small, especially in poor and capital scarce countries. We also verify that this effect is unrelated to large aid flows and donor fragmentation.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Andrea Presbitero"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.12.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b501e69d1363d5fb","title":"Social interactions in large networks: A game theoretic approach","abstract":"This article studies estimation of social interactions in a large network game, where all observations come from one single equilibrium of a network game with asymmetric information. Simple assumptions about the structure are made to establish the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium. I show that the equilibrium strategies satisfy a network decaying dependence condition requiring that dependence between two players' decisions decay with their network distance, which serves as the basis for my statistical inference. Moreover, I establish identification and propose a computationally feasible and efficient estimation method, which is illustrated by an empirical application of college attendance.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Haiqing Xu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12269","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-b5035788ea2218c5","title":"Product innovation, process innovation and export propensity: persistence, complementarities and feedback effects in Spanish firms","abstract":"Drawing on a longitudinal data of Spanish manufacturing firms, this study explores the persistence of technological innovation and exports, their potential complementary relations and feedback effects. Empirical results suggest the presence of both true and spurious state dependence in all three activities. True state dependence in technical innovation and exports implies intertemporal spillovers relevant to the evaluation of innovation and export policy measures. However, given that results also suggest spurious state dependence, firm-specific characteristics should be taken into account in promoting technological innovations and exports. In addition, we find a strong complementarity between product and process innovation both through a contemporaneous effect and via unobserved firm characteristics. However, concerning complementarity between innovation and exports, results suggests complementarity only through contemporaneous effects. Finally, we find no support for the causal link from past product and process innovations to current export activities.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Sara Ayllón","Dragana Radičić"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1584376","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b51cfc6e49e807bd","title":"Consumer trust in the food value chain and its impact on consumer confidence: A model for assessing consumer trust and evidence from a 5-country study in Europe","abstract":"In order to measure consumer trust in food chain actors and its impact on consumer confidence in food and the technology with which it has been produced, a model was developed relating social trust, beliefs in trustworthiness, overall trust in food chain actors, and confidence in both the supply of food products and food technologies. Data were collected via an online survey in five European countries. Analysis provided support for the model and showed that consumer confidence is largely determined by consumer beliefs about the trustworthiness of food chain actors. In particular the beliefs about openness, and especially about the openness of food manufacturers, are strongly related to consumer confidence. Some national differences in trust and confidence exist. This instrument is shown to be suitable for monitoring the development of, and changes in, trust across countries over time.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Anna L. Macready","Sophie Hieke","Magdalena Klimczuk‐Kochańska","Szymon Szumiał","Liesbet Vranken","Klaus G. Grunert"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101880","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b528a059ae24b5d3","title":"Making housing affordable? The local effects of relaxing land-use regulation","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of relaxing land-use regulations on housing supply and rents at the local intra-city level. We apply a staggered difference-in-difference model, exploiting exogenous differences in the treatment timing of zoning plan reforms as identifying variation. Increasing the allowable floor-to-area ratio (FAR), i.e., upzoning, significantly increases the living space and housing units by approximately 9% in the subsequent five to ten years. This effect is stronger for larger upzonings, for rasters where zoning is binding, and where rents are high. Furthermore, upzoning leads to no difference in hedonic rents between upzoned and later-upzoned rasters. These results show that upzoning is a viable policy for increasing housing affordability. However, the effects depend on the upzoning policy design and take several years to materialize.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Simon Büchler","Elena Lutz"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103689","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b53304420e4bd978","title":"Updating Beliefs when Evidence is Open to Interpretation: Implications for Bias and Polarization","abstract":"We introduce a model in which agents observe signals about the state of the world, and some signals are open to interpretation. Our decision makers first interpret each signal based on their current belief and then form a posterior on the sequence of interpreted signals. This “double updating” leads to confirmation bias and can lead agents who observe the same information to polarize. We explore the model’s predictions in an online experiment in which individuals interpret research summaries about climate change and the death penalty. Consistent with the model, there is a significant relationship between an individual’s prior and their interpretation of the summaries; and over half of the subjects exhibit polarizing behavior.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Roland G. Fryer","Philipp Harms","Matthew O. Jackson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b540672aff5bd6a3","title":"China’s Anticorruption Campaign and Civil Servant Fever","abstract":"What is the impact of anticorruption efforts on entry into bureaucratic jobs? This paper approaches the question theoretically and empirically through the lens of China’s anticorruption campaign instituted in 2013. We leverage a novel data set of national civil service exams. Exploiting assignment and timing variations in anticorruption inspections of government departments, our difference-in-differences estimate shows that a department had significantly fewer applicants following an inspection. We provide evidence that the decline in bureaucratic entry has occurred since the campaign lowered the (expected) returns from bureaucratic jobs by improving the detection of corruption and constraining power that is likely to be abused. In contrast, we do not find evidence that the campaign affected legal income. Furthermore, simulation exercises suggest that after the anticorruption campaign, incoming bureaucrats may have lower ability but higher prosociality than before.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Weizheng Lai","Xun Li"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","P","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/727780","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b56ebdeb00b03f35","title":"Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains","abstract":"The logic of the ‘smile curve’ in the context of global value chains (GVCs) has been widely used in case studies of individual firms, but rarely identified at the country‐industry level by using real data. This paper puts forward a proposal, based on an inter‐country input–output model, to consistently measure both the gain of value added and the position of countries and industries when they join GVCs. This allows for better identification and mapping of economy‐wide smile curves in a given conceptual value chain. Using the World Input‐Output Tables, we identify the Information and Communications Technology exports‐related smile curves for China and the United States (US), which provide an intuitive and visual representation of who gains value added and jobs through joining GVCs, and to what extent. Further insight into the distributional implications of GVC expansion, based on our analysis of labour markets for China and the US, provides a strong support for the so‐called ‘Paradoxical Pair of Concerns’ between developed and developing countries. Our empirical results show that gains through joining GVCs may vary greatly across different skill levels of labour domestically, a fact that has, at least in part, been a driver of the backlash against globalization and the rise of trade protectionism.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Bo Meng","Ming Ye","Shang‐Jin Wei"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12364","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b56efaf2f33b152a","title":"A Structural Model of Dense Network Formation","abstract":"This paper proposes an empirical model of network formation, combining strategic and random networks features. Payoffs depend on direct links, but also link externalities. Players meet sequentially at random, myopically updating their links. Under mild assumptions, the network formation process is a potential game and converges to an exponential random graph model (ERGM), generating directed dense networks. I provide new identification results for ERGMs in large networks: if link externalities are nonnegative, the ERGM is asymptotically indistinguishable from an Erdős–Renyi model with independent links. We can identify the parameters only when at least one of the externalities is negative and sufficiently large. However, the standard estimation methods for ERGMs can have exponentially slow convergence, even when the model has asymptotically independent links. I thus estimate parameters using a Bayesian MCMC method. When the parameters are identifiable, I show evidence that the estimation algorithm converges in almost quadratic time.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Angelo Mele"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10400","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b57d6c318c6376ae","title":"Financial returns or social impact? What motivates impact investors’ lending to firms in low-income countries","abstract":"I analyze 70,000 transactions by retail impact investors on a peer-to-peer lending platform that intermediates loans to firms in low-income countries. Loans pay interest to investors and publicize indicators of expected social impact. Financial returns significantly influence investors’ decisions: a one percentage point increase in the interest rate increases funding speed seven-fold, investment probability two-fold and transaction size by 122 Euro. Expected social impact influences investors’ perception but has no influence (for female empowerment, employees and beneficiaries) or limited influence (for turnover) on investors’ funding decisions. When all available loans pay the same interest rates, female borrowers - but not firms with many employees or beneficiaries - are more likely to be chosen, suggesting that variation in financial returns can crowd out salient dimensions of social impact. The study implies that peer-to-peer lending platforms should function as gatekeepers of social impact and cannot outsource the evaluation of social impact to retail impact investors.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Philipp Kollenda"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106224","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b5850007076557f2","title":"Food counts. Measuring food consumption and expenditures in household consumption and expenditure surveys (HCES). Introduction to the special issue","abstract":"This introductory paper presents the results of an international multi-disciplinary research project on the measurement of food consumption in national household surveys. Food consumption data from household surveys are possibly the single most important source of information on poverty, food security, and nutrition outcomes at national, sub-national and household level, and contribute building blocks to global efforts to monitor progress towards the major international development goals. The paper synthesizes case studies from a diverse set of developing and OECD countries, looking at some of the main outstanding research issues as identified by a recent international assessment of 100 existing national household surveys (Smith et al., 2014). The project mobilized expertise from different disciplines (statistics, economics, food security, nutrition) to work towards enhancing our understanding of how to improve the quality and availability of food consumption and expenditure data, while making them more valuable for a diverse set of users. The individual studies summarized in this paper analyze, both theoretically and empirically, how different surveys design options affect the quality of the data being collected and, in turn, the implications for statistical inference and policy analysis. The conclusions and recommendations derived from this collection of studies will be instrumental in advancing the methodological agenda for the collection of household level food data, and will provide national statistical offices and survey practitioners worldwide with practical insights for survey design, while providing poverty, food and nutrition policymakers with greater understanding of these issues, as well as improved tools for and better guidance in policy formulation.","wordCount":252,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Alberto Zezza","Calogero Carletto","John L. Fiedler","Pietro Gennari","Dean Jolliffe"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.08.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b58ff6ba686f428e","title":"The spatial decay of human capital externalities - A functional regression approach with precise geo-referenced data","abstract":"This paper analyzes human capital externalities from high-skilled workers by applying functional regression to precise geocoded register data. Functional regression enables us to describe the concentration of high-skilled workers around workplaces as continuous curves and to efficiently estimate a spillover function determined by distance. Furthermore, our rich panel data allow us to address the sorting of workers and disentangle human capital externalities from supply effects by using an extensive set of time-varying fixed effects. Our estimates reveal that human capital externalities attenuate with increasing distance and disappear after 25 km. Externalities from the immediate neighborhood of an establishment are twice as large as externalities from surroundings 10 km away.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Johann Eppelsheimer","Elke J. Jahn","Christoph Alexander Rüst"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103785","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b592bfbbec19cd16","title":"The international transmission of local economic shocks through migrant networks","abstract":"Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration increased, emigration decreased, and remittance receipt declined. These changes significantly increased local employment and hours worked, but wages were unaffected. Investment in children's education also slowed in these communities. These findings document the effects in Mexico when potential migrants lose access to a strong US labor market, providing insight into the potential impacts of stricter US migration restrictions.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["María Esther Caballero","Brian C. Cadena","Brian K. Kovak"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103832","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b5a38210b43cdd3b","title":"Reciprocity and the Paradox of Trust in psychological game theory","abstract":"Rabin's psychological game-theoretic model of ‘fairness’ has been the starting point for a literature about preferences for reciprocity. In this literature, reciprocity is modelled by defining an individual's ‘kindness’ or ‘unkindness’ in terms of the consequences of his actions for others, and assuming a motivation to reward (punish) other people's kindness (unkindness). Contrary to intuition, this form of reciprocity cannot explain mutually beneficial trust and trustworthiness in a simple Trust Game. We formalise and offer a diagnosis of this ‘Paradox of Trust’. We distinguish between two kinds of reciprocity. Rabin's concept of reciprocal kindness is a psychologically plausible motivation, and the paradox is an informative result about the implications of this motivation. However, trust is better understood in terms of reciprocal cooperation – the motivation to play one's part in mutually beneficial practices, conditional on others playing their parts. We show that a theory of reciprocal cooperation can avoid the paradox.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Andrea Isoni","Robert Sugden"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.04.015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b5a84bc8fc402877","title":"Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of Chinese Shipbuilding","abstract":"This article provides a model-based empirical strategy to, (1) detect the presence and gauge the magnitude of government subsidies and (2) quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries, industry prices, costs and consumer surplus. I construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding, a classic target of industrial policy. I find strong evidence consistent with China having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by $13$–$20\\%$, corresponding to $1.5$ to $4.5$ billion US dollars, between 2006 and 2012. The subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world, with Japan, in particular, losing significant market share. They also misaligned costs and production, while leading to minor surplus gains for shippers.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Myrto Kalouptsidi"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b5beaa23a2fa8fa4","title":"Some Misconceptions About Public Investment Efficiency and Growth","abstract":"We reconsider the macroeconomic implications of public investment efficiency, defined as the ratio between the actual increment to public capital and the amount spent. We show that in standard neoclassical and endogenous growth models, increases in public investment spending in inefficient countries do not generally have a lower impact on growth than in efficient countries. This apparently counterintuitive result, which contrasts with earlier papers and policy analyses, follows from the standard assumption that the marginal product of public capital declines with the capital/output ratio. The implication is that efficiency and scarcity of public capital are likely to be inversely related across countries. Both efficiency and the rate of return thus need to be considered together in assessing the impact of increases in investment, and blanket recommendations against increased public investment spending in inefficient countries need to be rethought.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Andrew Berg","Edward F. Buffie","Catherine Pattillo","Rafael Portillo","Andrea Presbitero","Luis‐Felipe Zanna"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12275","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b5c2df4781de9635","title":"Refugee reception, extreme-right voting, and compositional amenities: Evidence from Italian municipalities","abstract":"We use data from Italy to study the political and social impact of a refugee reception policy (SPRAR) directly managed by local governments, whose features recall the conditions of the contact theory (Allport, 1954). Instrumental variables estimates indicate that municipalities that opened a refugee center between the 2013 and 2018 national elections experienced a change in the vote shares of extreme-right parties that is approximately 7 percentage points lower compared to municipalities that did not open a refugee center. We document that the positive impact of SPRARs on “compositional amenities” (i.e., local schools) and population growth allows explaining the negative impact on anti-immigrant prejudice. Finally, we provide evidence of spillovers in prejudice reduction in neighboring municipalities without a SPRAR.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Matteo Gamalerio","Mario Luca","Alessio Romarri","Max Viskanic"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103892","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b5cc5b4439e88fda","title":"Race, Ethnicity, and Discriminatory Zoning","abstract":"Zoning policies can have marked impacts on the spatial distribution of people and land use, yet there is little systematic evidence on their origin. Investigating the causes of these regulations is complicated by the fact that land use and zoning have been co-evolving for nearly a century. We employ a novel approach to overcome this challenge, studying the factors underpinning the introduction of comprehensive zoning in Chicago. We find evidence consistent with a precursor to exclusionary zoning as well as support for the hypothesis that industrial use zoning was disproportionately allocated to neighborhoods populated by ethnic and racial minorities.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Allison Shertzer","Tate Twinam","Randall Walsh"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140430","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b5d3fe3ab1abf596","title":"Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants","abstract":"This paper studies how several macrofinancial factors are associated over time with the evolution of covered interest parity (CIP) deviations in the decade after the Global Financial Crisis. Changes in a number of risk- and policy-related factors have a significant association with the evolution of CIP deviations. Key measures of FX market liquidity and intermediaries' risk-taking capacity are strongly correlated with the cross-currency basis (the deviation from CIP), and the close relationship between broad U.S. dollar strength and the basis is driven mainly by a common factor depending on other safe-haven currencies' comovements. Post-crisis monetary policies also play a role, as demonstrated by the relationship between CIP deviations, central bank balance sheets, and term premia. Risk-related factors have more explanatory power than monetary policy-related factors over the entire 2010–2018 period, but they are approximately equally influential over the period's second half. Further highlighting the role of bank regulation, we offer evidence that the year-end dynamics of the three-month dollar basis depend on financial regulations targeting global systemically important financial institutions.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Eugenio Cerutti","Maurice Obstfeld","Haonan Zhou"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103447","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b5f9d9d56cb4b00b","title":"What Does Free Community College Buy? Early Impacts from the Oregon Promise","abstract":"This paper examines the Oregon Promise, a state‐level program that exclusively subsidizes in‐state community college attendance. I estimate impacts using a difference‐in‐difference design that links students in states with essentially universal 10th‐grade PSAT coverage to national‐level postsecondary enrollment data. I find that the implementation of the Oregon Promise increased enrollment at two‐year colleges by roughly four to five percentage points for the first two eligible cohorts. In the first year of the program, the increase in community college enrollment comes primarily from students shifting out of four‐year colleges, whereas in the second year the program predominately increases overall postsecondary enrollment.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Oded Gurantz"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22157","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b5fd4f1c945ee013","title":"Feedback spillovers across tasks, self-confidence and competitiveness","abstract":"Does feedback on success in a task increase individuals' beliefs about their chance to succeed in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Does feedback on failure have a symmetric effect? Is the distortion of beliefs, possibly due to motivated beliefs, mistakes in updating or the feeling of having a lucky day, heterogeneous across individuals, in particular according to their status in the society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India with participants from different castes, we show that feedback on success in a forced competition in a first task increases winners' self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. Such feedback spillovers on self-confidence are asymmetric and heterogeneous according to status and more likely for already more confident individuals.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ritwik Banerjee","Nabanita Datta Gupta","Marie Claire Villeval"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.07.002","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b5fe1e8ecba6f561","title":"Strategy-proofness and efficiency for non-quasi-linear and common-tiered-object preferences: Characterization of minimum price rule","abstract":"We consider how to assign heterogenous objects to agents and determine their payments. Each agent receives at most one object and has non-quasi-linear preferences over bundles, each consisting of an object and a payment. We focus on the following cases: (i) objects are linearly ranked, and if objects are equally priced, agents prefer a higher-ranked object to a lower-ranked object, or (ii) objects are partitioned into several tiers, and if objects are equally priced, agents prefer an object in the higher tier to an object in the lower tier. First, we analyze the (Walrasian) equilibrium structures in those cases. A minimum price rule assigns a minimum price equilibrium to each preference profile. Second, on the normal-rich common-object-ranking domains and normal-rich common-tiered-object domains, by assuming some conditions, we characterize minimum price rules in terms of agents' welfare, and by four properties, i.e., efficiency, strategy-proofness, individual rationality, and no subsidy.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Yu Zhou","Shigehiro Serizawa"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2017.12.019","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b60a039d5741eaf8","title":"The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia","abstract":"We estimate the aggregate productivity gains from reducing barriers to internal labor migration in Indonesia, accounting for worker selection and spatial differences in human capital. We distinguish between movement costs, which mean workers will move only if they expect higher wages, and amenity differences, which mean some locations must pay more to attract workers. We find modest but important aggregate impacts. We estimate a 22 percent increase in labor productivity from removing all barriers. Reducing migration costs to the US level, a high-mobility benchmark, leads to a 7.1 percent productivity boost. These figures hide substantial heterogeneity. The origin population that benefits most sees a 104 percent increase in average earnings from a complete barrier removal, or a 25 percent gain from moving to the US benchmark.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Gharad Bryan","Melanie Morten"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701810","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b62a1da9572a0497","title":"Estimating poverty for refugees in data-scarce contexts: an application of cross-survey imputation","abstract":"The increasing growth of forced displacement worldwide has brought more attention to measuring poverty among refugee populations. However, refugee data remain scarce, particularly regarding income or consumption. We offer a first attempt to measure poverty among refugees using cross-survey imputation and administrative and survey data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Employing a small number of predictors currently available in the UNHCR registration system, the proposed methodology offers out-of-sample predicted poverty rates that are not statistically different from actual poverty rates. These estimates are robust to different poverty lines, perform well according to targeting indicators, and are more accurate than those based on asset indexes or proxy means tests. They can also be obtained with relatively small samples. We additionally show that it is feasible to provide poverty estimates for one geographical region based on existing data from another similar region.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Hai‐Anh Dang","Paolo Verme"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00909-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b63140fb5147f7b0","title":"Robust contracting under common value uncertainty","abstract":"A buyer makes an offer to a privately informed seller for a good of uncertain quality. Quality determines both the seller's valuation and the buyer's valuation, and the buyer evaluates each contract according to its worst-case performance over a set of probability distributions. This paper demonstrates that the contract that maximizes the minimum payoff over all possible probability distributions of quality is a screening menu that separates all types, whereas the optimal contract for any given probability distribution is a posted price, which induces bunching. Using the ε-contamination model, according to which the buyer's utility is a weighted average of his single prior expected utility and the worst-case scenario, the analysis further shows that for intermediate degrees of confidence, the optimal mechanism combines features of both of these contracts.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Sarah Auster"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2385","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b646d9c1e5841d52","title":"Delegation of environmental regulation and perceived corruption in South Africa","abstract":"I study the drivers of a reduction in the discretionary power of environmental inspectors and the impact that such reduction has on firms’ perceptions. I examine the transition from the Air Pollution Protection Act of 1965 to the Air Quality Act of 2005 (AQA), a change from full to partial delegation of regulation in South Africa. By constructing a principal–agent model, I propose a theoretical explanation for why a society would restrict environmental inspectors’ discretionary power. I then use my theoretical model to discuss the air quality regulation transition in South Africa. I suggest that the transition might have occurred because of increases in inspectors’ rent-seeking motivation and capacity of appropriating rents after the end of Apartheid. Using microdata, I run difference-in-differences models in a two-period panel with 191 South African firms to show that the implementation of the AQA decreases affected firms’ perceived corruption, but does not change perceptions on obtaining licences and on the functioning of courts. My work indicates that national governments in developing countries should consider the characteristics of the agents who are implementing regulation, and the system they are embedded in, when designing environmental regulation.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Pedro Naso"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101462","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b652bb600e899a1a","title":"Effect of public subsidies on farm technical efficiency: a meta-analysis of empirical results","abstract":"Investigating the impact of public subsidies on farm technical efficiency is becoming a critical issue in applied agricultural policy analysis. This article presents a meta-analysis of empirical results on this issue, based on data gathered from a systematic literature review. We find that, in the empirical literature, subsidies are commonly negatively associated with farm technical efficiency. Meta-regression estimation results show that the direction (significantly negative, significantly positive or non-significant) of the observed effects is sensitive to the way subsidies are modelled in the empirical studies.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Jean‐Joseph Minviel","Laure Latruffe"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1194963","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b660dd83bcbae740","title":"Estimating welfare impacts of climate change using a discrete-choice model of land management: An application to western U.S. forestry","abstract":"This study develops a method to estimate the welfare impacts of climate change on landowners using a discrete-choice econometric model of land management. We apply the method to forest management in the Pacific states of the U.S. and estimate welfare effects on the region that holds the largest current commercial value – western Oregon and Washington. We find evidence that a warmer and drier climate will induce an approximate 39 % loss in the economic value of timberland by 2050, though there is heterogeneity across space. The discrete-choice approach allows us to determine that the welfare losses are primarily driven by estimated losses to Douglas-fir, the most commercially valuable species. An alternative approach to welfare analysis from climate change is the Ricardian method, which gives conceptually similar estimates to the discrete-choice method. While we find similar empirical findings between the discrete-choice and Ricardian approaches, the discrete-choice approach provides more heterogeneity and somewhat larger negative welfare impacts. Our analysis is notable for providing the first empirical evidence that climate change can induce welfare losses to timberland owners, even while accounting for optimal adaptation.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Yukiko Hashida","David J. Lewis"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101295","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b6681a89e91784eb","title":"Storing power: market structure matters","abstract":"We assess how firms' incentives to operate and invest in energy storage depend on the market structure. For this purpose, we characterize equilibrium market outcomes allowing for market power in storage and/or production, as well as for vertical integration between storage and production. Market power reduces overall efficiency through two channels: It induces an inefficient use of the storage facilities, and it distorts investment incentives. The worst outcome for consumers and total welfare occurs under vertical integration. The results are key to understanding how to regulate energy storage, an issue which is critical for the deployment of renewable energies.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["David Andrés‐Cerezo","Natalia Fabra"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12429","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b66a0987ba342e37","title":"Social capital and the spread of covid-19: Insights from european countries","abstract":"We investigate the effect of social capital on health outcomes during the Covid-19 pandemic in independent analyses for Austria, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. Exploiting detailed geographical variation within countries, we show that a one-standard-deviation increase in social capital leads to between 14% and 34% fewer Covid-19 cases per capita accumulated from mid-March until end of June 2020, as well as between 6% and 35% fewer excess deaths per capita. Our results highlight the positive health returns of strengthening social capital.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Alina K. Bartscher","Sebastian Seitz","Sebastian Siegloch","Michaela Slotwinski","Nils Wehrhöfer"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102531","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b67086cfee8be0a1","title":"Internal finance, financial constraint, and pollution emissions: Evidence from China","abstract":"This study explores the role of internal finance on firms' environmental behavior, focusing specifically on sulfur dioxide ( SO 2) emissions in China's rapidly growing industrial sector. Using a rich and unique dataset provided by the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), our baseline results find that firms with stronger internal finances experience a significant reduction in SO 2 emissions. Our empirical analysis uncovers two key mechanisms through which internal finance influences firm behavior. First, firms with stronger internal financial health, as measured by metrics like cash flow, current ratio, and coverage ratio, are more inclined to invest in Research & Development and Total Factor Productivity, especially in credit-constrained sectors. Second, these financially robust firms are more proactive in adopting SO 2 abatement technologies, an effect that becomes more pronounced in the context of credit-constrained firms. Our findings offer a nuanced understanding of how internal financial resources can serve as a dual lever for both innovation and sustainability, particularly in settings where external financing is limited. They also suggest that the shortcomings of the financial systems necessitate regulation to support and accelerate the environmental transition.","wordCount":184,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Mathilde Maurel","Thomas Pernet","Ruili Zhao"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102525","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b6774934d74526c4","title":"Income Level and Income Inequality in the Euro‐Mediterranean Region, C. 14–700","abstract":"Was the Euro‐Mediterranean region at the time of the Roman Empire and its Western successor states more unequal than the European Union today? We use some scant evidence on personal income distribution within the Empire and differences in average regional incomes to conclude that the Empire was more homogeneous, in terms of regional incomes, than today's EU, and inter‐personal inequality was low. Moreover, income inequality was likely less around year 700 than in Augustus's time. The latter finding contrasts with a view of rising inequality as the Western Roman Empire dissolved.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Branko Milanović"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12329","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b67ad3c524be6b74","title":"Who chokes on a penalty kick? Social environment and individual performance during Covid-19 times","abstract":"We use hand-collected data on penalty kicks in the top-level football competitions across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom over the 2019/2020 season to analyse how social environment affects the performance of individuals. We exploit the Covid-19 outbreak to induce a plausible source of variation in the supporters' attendance. We find that for home teams the probability of missing a penalty increases when matches are forced to be played behind closed doors, while visiting teams are less likely to choke on a penalty kick, with these effects being more pronounced when the level of attendance (measured before the pandemic) was high. Taken together, these findings indicate that not only a supportive audience, but also the size of the support plays a key role for success of skill tasks.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Massimiliano Ferraresi","Gianluca Gucciardi"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109868","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b685aa88e186cbb0","title":"Broadband internet, firm performance, and worker welfare: Evidence and mechanism","abstract":"This paper examines the effect of high‐speed internet on firm's productivity and worker's wage in China. We exploit a national policy reform and devise a difference‐in‐difference strategy to address the endogeneity. We find that high‐speed internet significantly increases firm's productivity and worker's wage, and the estimate is larger for firms in industries with high skill intensity and for more educated workers. We provide suggestive evidence that the mechanism is likely from firm's increased use of skill‐biased technology and the flattened management organization.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Shiyi Chen","Wanlin Liu","Hong Song"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12854","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b68987381f7124a5","title":"Shared e-scooter services and road safety: Evidence from six European countries","abstract":"We estimate the causal effect of shared e-scooter services on traffic accidents by exploiting the variation in the availability of e-scooter services induced by the staggered rollout across 93 cities in six countries. Police-reported accidents involving personal injuries in the average month increased by around 8.2% after shared e-scooters were introduced. Effects are large during summer and insignificant during winter. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals the largest estimated effects for cities with limited cycling infrastructure, while no effects are detectable in cities with high bike-lane density. This difference suggests that public policy can play a crucial role in mitigating accidents related to e-scooters and, more generally, to changes in urban mobility.","wordCount":110,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Cannon Cloud","Simon Heß","Johannes Kasinger"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104593","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b68a17a3191cf923","title":"Cooperation between newcomers and incumbents: The role of normative disagreements","abstract":"Cooperation in groups often requires individual members to make costly contributions that benefit the group as a whole. Prior research suggests that shared norms can help to support ingroup cooperation by prescribing common standards of how much to contribute. These common standards may be disrupted when groups undergo membership change, i.e., when members from outgroups enter the ingroup. When newcomers and incumbents have different notions about how much to contribute, a normative disagreement ensues that could undermine cooperation and the extent to which individuals identify with the group. In a laboratory experiment, we manipulate whether newcomers and incumbents disagree about how much to contribute in a public goods game with peer punishment. We examine whether normative disagreement between newcomers and incumbents affects newcomer-incumbent relations in terms of group identification, the emergence of a social norm, and costly punishment. The main goal is to test whether normative disagreement and the resulting newcomer-incumbent relations harm cooperation in terms of contributions to the common good. We find that normative disagreement between newcomers and incumbents negatively affects the emergence of a shared social norm and lowers feelings of group identification. Contrary to expectations, normative disagreement does not affect cooperation negatively. Instead, participants adjust their behavior to each other’s standards, using punishment for norm enforcement. This punishment is especially directed at low-contributing newcomers, leading them to conform to the incumbents’ higher contribution standards.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Kasper Otten","Vincent Buskens","Wojtek Przepiorka","Naomi Ellemers"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102448","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b68e0b12ffdee05a","title":"Environmental sustainability and employee satisfaction","abstract":"Given the increasing emphasis on environmental sustainability, we investigate whether firm pollution drives employee satisfaction and find that satisfaction is substantially lower in more polluting firms. We also show that more educated employees, employees aged between 30 and 40, and management employees are less satisfied when their firms pollute. Additionally, employees in heavy-polluting firms are less satisfied with their senior leadership, and are less likely to recommend their firms to their friends. Overall, employees care about environmental sustainability and reducing pollution seems essential to increasing employee satisfaction.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Chenxing Jing","Kevin Keasey","Bin Xu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111402","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b68f6f30df2bb1a2","title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts","abstract":"We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of US economic policy uncertainty shocks on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favour of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment in Canada is shown to react more strongly to uncertainty shocks in economic busts. Such shocks explain about 13% of the variance of the 2‐year ahead forecast error of the Canadian unemployment rate in recessions vs. just 2% during economic booms. Counterfactual simulations point to a novel ‘economic policy uncertainty spillovers channel’. According to this channel, jumps in US uncertainty foster economic policy uncertainty in Canada in the first place and, because of the latter, lead to a temporary increase in the Canadian unemployment rate. Evidence of asymmetric spillover effects are also found for the UK economy, whose trade intensity with the US is low. This result is consistent with a transmission channel other than trade behind our findings.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Giovanni Caggiano","Efrem Castelnuovo","Juan Manuel Figueres"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12323","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b6925da4c9892270","title":"The adoption and termination of suppliers over the business cycle","abstract":"We assemble a firm-level dataset to study the adoption and termination of suppliers over business cycles. We document that the aggregate number and rate of adoption of suppliers are procyclical. The rate of termination is acyclical at the aggregate level, and the cyclicality of termination encompasses large differences across producers. To account for these new facts, we develop a model with optimizing producers that incur separate costs for management, adoption, and termination of suppliers. These costs alter the incentives to scale up production and to replace existing with new suppliers. Sufficiently high convexity in management relative to adjustment costs is crucial to replicating the observed cyclicality in the adoption and termination rates at the producer and aggregate levels. We study the welfare implications of credit injections and subsidies on new inputs—the two main classes of supply-chain policies adopted in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic. Credit injections generally outperform subsidies on new inputs, except when aggregate TFP is exceptionally high.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Le Xu","Yang Yu","Francesco Zanetti"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103730","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b69e317faf01a16a","title":"Finance in global transition scenarios: Mapping investments by technology into finance needs by source","abstract":"Numerous studies have presented scenarios regarding energy transition, including the computation of investment costs in various models. Although these studies project detailed investment pathways for different technologies, they do not distinguish between different sources of and types of funding. They tell us what the transition will cost, but not how it will have to be financed. In this paper, we develop a methodology according to which an appropriate financing mix can be calculated from these investment projections based on technology-related assumptions in scenarios. We differentiate between debt and equity as well as between the following sources: public/private Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D), small-distributed financing, venture capital (equity), public markets (equity), and asset finance (debt and equity provided by institutional investors). We show that major commitments to wind and solar energy need to come from institutional investors in the form of asset finance. In addition, to achieve the transition to a decarbonized power system, government and private investors need to continue investing and extend their engagement in funding research, demonstration, and early deployment. Finally, we present a number of policy options targeting the different sources of finance.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Friedemann Polzin","Mark Sanders","Alexandra Serebriakova"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105281","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b6afe913c485e088","title":"The Effect of Breakfast in the Classroom on Obesity and Academic Performance: Evidence from New York City","abstract":"Participation in the federally subsidized school breakfast program often falls well below its lunchtime counterpart. To increase take-up, many districts have implemented Breakfast in the Classroom (BIC), offering breakfast directly to students at the start of the school day. Beyond increasing participation, advocates claim BIC improves academic performance, attendance, and engagement. Others caution BIC has deleterious effects on child weight. We use the implementation of BIC in New York City (NYC) to estimate its impact on meals program participation, body mass index (BMI), achievement, and attendance. While we find large effects on participation, our findings provide no evidence of hoped-for gains in academic performance, or of feared increases in obesity. The policy case for BIC will depend upon reductions in hunger and food insecurity for disadvantaged children, or its longer-term effects.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Sean P. Corcoran","Brian Elbel","Amy Ellen Schwartz"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21909","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b6bbcf9cda7e5051","title":"The elasticity of substitution between time and market goods: Evidence from the great recession","abstract":"We document a change in household shopping behavior during the Great Recession. Households purchased more on sale, larger sizes, and generic products and increased coupon usage and shopping at discount stores. We estimate a decline in returns to shopping during the recession. Therefore, the increase in shopping behavior implies a significant decrease in households' opportunity cost of time. Using the estimated cost of time and time use data, we estimate a high elasticity of substitution between market expenditure and time spent on nonmarket work. We find that households smooth a sizable fraction of consumption by varying their time allocation during recessions.","wordCount":101,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Aviv Nevo","Arlene Wong"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12343","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b6c7cddeaa8036ae","title":"Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis","abstract":"Climate change has become mankind's main challenge. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping are not totally irresponsible for this representing, roughly, 3% of the global total; an amount equal to that of Germany's total GHG emissions. The Fourth Greenhouse Gas Study 2020 of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) predicts that the share of GHG emissions from shipping will increase further, as international trade recovers and continues to grow, alongside with the economic development of India, China, and Africa. China and the European Union have proposed to include shipping in their carbon emissions trading systems (ETS). As a result, the study of the relationship between the carbon finance market and the shipping industry, attempted here for the first time, is both important and timely, both for policymakers and shipowners. We use wavelet analysis and the spillover index methods to explore the dynamic dependence and information spillovers between the carbon finance market and shipping. We discover a long-term dependence and information linkages between the two markets, with the carbon finance market being the dominant one. Major events, such as the 2009 global financial crisis; Brexit in 2016; the 2018 China-US trade frictions; and COVID-19 are shown to strengthen the dependence of carbon finance and shipping. We find that the dependence is strongest between the EU carbon finance market and dry bulk shipping, while the link is weaker in the case of tanker shipping. Nonetheless, carbon finance and tanker shipping showed a relatively stronger dependence when OPEC refused to cut production in 2014, and when the China-US trade disputes led to the collapse of oil prices after 2018. We show that information spillovers between carbon finance and shipping are bidirectional and asymmetric, with the carbon finance market being the principal transmitter of information. Our results and their interpretation provide guidance to governments on whether (and how) to include shipping in emissions trading schemes, supporting at the same time the environmental sustainability decisions of shipping companies.","wordCount":322,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Bin Meng","Shuiyang Chen","Hercules Haralambides","Haibo Kuang","Lidong Fan"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106604","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b6cc7cf1827dd0b6","title":"Credit cards, the demand for money, and monetary aggregation","abstract":"We use nonparametric and parametric demand analysis to empirically estimate a credit card-augmented monetary asset demand system, based on the Minflex Laurent flexible functional form, and a sample period that includes the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We also use multivariate copulae in an attempt to capture various patterns of dependence structures. In doing so, we relax the joint normality assumption of the errors of the demand system and estimate the model without having to delete one equation as is usually the practice. We show that the Minflex Laurent copula-based demand system produces a higher income elasticity for credit card transaction services and higher Morishima elasticities between credit card transaction services and monetary assets compared to the traditional estimation of the Minflex Laurent demand system. We also show that credit cards are substitutes for monetary assets and that there is lower tail dependence between the demand for credit card transaction services and transaction balances.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Jinan Liu","Apostolos Serletis"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100521000262","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b6db23fe913bb4c1","title":"Learning and the evolution of the fed’s inflation target","abstract":"This paper tries to infer and compare the evolution of the Federal Reserve’s (unobserved) inflation target series by estimating a monetary model under the alternative assumptions of rational expectations or subjective expectations and learning. In the estimated model that assumes that economic agents have rational expectations, the implied inflation target displays large shifts over time: it starts at 2% in the early 1960s, it rises to 8% in the 1970s, and it falls to 4% and 2% in the 1980s and 1990s. When the assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning by the policymaker, the inferred target is, instead, remarkably stable over time. The target assumes values between 2% and 3% over the whole postwar sample. The findings suggest changing beliefs and learning by the Federal Reserve as major endogenous causes of the perceived variation in the inflation target. When the model is allowed to take the central bank’s evolving beliefs into account, the joint evolution of US inflation, output, and monetary policy decisions can be explained without requiring large exogenous changes in the inflation target.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Fabio Milani"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051900004x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b6e2145fa75c43e7","title":"How does trade policy uncertainty affect firms’ pollution emissions? Theory and evidence from China","abstract":"The literature investigates trade-environment relationship at the firm level, but does not focus on the environmental effect of trade policy uncertainty. In the context of de-globalization and Sino-US trade friction, trade policy uncertainty significantly increases. How does trade policy uncertainty affect firms’ pollution emissions? In this study, we incorporate energy, pollution, and trade policy uncertainty into Melitz’s (2003) framework and construct a theoretical model to reveal the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and pollution emissions. Then, we employ the event that the USA granted permanent normal trade relationship to China as a quasi natural experiment. We use difference-in-difference-in-difference model and the data of Chinese manufacturing firms for empirical analysis. Our results indicate that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty reduces emission intensity of exporting firms, but has no significant impact on emission levels. Given that these firms do not aggravate emission levels under the condition of expanding output scale, we conclude that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty can improve environmental performance. Mechanism analysis shows an interesting finding that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty reduces emission intensity mainly by improving energy efficiency rather than improving abatement technology and optimizing energy structure. In addition, pollution reductions mainly occur in pollution-intensive and capital-intensive industries as well as coastal regions. Altogether, this study contributes to the literature on trade-environment relationship and trade policy uncertainty.","wordCount":222,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Xi Lin","Geng Huang","Ling‐Yun He"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000038","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b6ef8277c0534903","title":"Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark","abstract":"Using Danish administrative data, we study the impacts of children on gender inequality in the labor market. The arrival of children creates a long-run gender gap in earnings of around 20 percent driven by hours worked, participation, and wage rates. We identify mechanisms driving these “child penalties” in terms of occupation, sector, and firm choices. We find that the fraction of gender inequality caused by child penalties has featured a dramatic increase over the last three to four decades. Finally, we show that child penalties are transmitted through generations, from parents to daughters, suggesting an influence of childhood environment on gender identity.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Henrik Kleven","Camille Landais","Jakob Egholt Søgaard"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180010","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b708c3ba08874ca6","title":"Subjective probabilistic expectations, household air pollution, and health: Evidence from cooking fuel use patterns in West Bengal, India","abstract":"An increasing number of empirical studies have investigated the determinants of cooking fuel choice in developing countries, where health risks from household air pollution are one of the most important issues. We contribute to this stream of literature by examining individuals’ subjective probabilistic expectations about health risks when using different types of fuel and their role in cooking fuel usage patterns. We also explore how these patterns, in turn, are associated with health status. Using data collected from 557 rural Indian households, we find that subjective probabilistic expectations of becoming sick from dirty fuel usage are negatively and significantly associated with the fraction of days of dirty fuel usage in households. Concurrently, dirty fuel usage and self-reported health status of the individual being sick are also significantly correlated. We then conduct a policy simulation of information provision regarding the health risks of dirty fuel usage. Our simulation demonstrates that although the provision of information results in statistically significant changes in households’ cooking fuel usage patterns and in individuals’ health status, these changes may be small in size.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay","Toshi H. Arimura","Hajime Katayama","Mari Sakudo","Hide‐Fumi Yokoo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101262","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b72815497d658ac6","title":"Estimating the cost of capital for renewable energy projects","abstract":"Many models in energy economics assess the cost of alternative power generation technologies. As an input, the models require well-calibrated assumptions for the cost of capital or discount rates to be used, especially for renewable energy for which the cost of capital differs widely across countries and technologies. In this article, we review the spectrum of estimation methods for the private cost of capital for renewable energy projects and discuss appropriate use of the methods to yield unbiased results. We then evaluate the empirical evidence from 46 countries for the period 2009–2017. We find a globally consistent rank order among technologies, with the cost of capital increasing from solar PV to onshore wind to offshore wind power. On average, the cost of capital in developing countries is significantly higher than in industrialized countries, with large heterogeneity also within the groups of industrialized or developing countries.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Bjarne Steffen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104783","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b7504bb2501c550e","title":"Place-based policies and firm performance: Evidence from Special Economic Zones in India","abstract":"This paper exploits time and geographic variation in the adoption of Special Economic Zones in India to assess the direct effects of the program on firm performance. We combine geocoded firm-level data and geocoded SEZs. Our analysis yields that conditional on controlling for initial selection based on observables, the establishment of new SEZs did not induce any discernible positive effect on the productivity growth of firms in the SEZs. To explain this, we focus on the possibility of distortions through non-profitable activities on the part of managers. We find that firms especially in publicly-owned SEZs decreased their productivity growth, while firms located in privately-owned SEZs experience productivity increases. We also show that directors of firms located inside the publicly-owned zones experienced a significant increase in their salary growth, which is not the case in privately-owned SEZs. Our findings are in line with the idea that the possibility of rent-seeking by managers leads to distortions in program implementation.","wordCount":157,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Holger Görg","Alina Mulyukova"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104752","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b7518118f273ad6e","title":"Children’s health, human capital accumulation, and r&d-based economic growth","abstract":"We analyze the effects of children’s health on human capital accumulation and on long-run economic growth. For this purpose, we design an R&D-based growth model in which the stock of human capital of the next generation is determined by parental education and health investments. We show that (i) there is a complementarity between education and health: if parents want to have better educated children, they also raise health investments and vice versa; (ii) parental health investments exert an unambiguously positive effect on long-run economic growth, (iii) faster population growth reduces long-run economic growth. These results are consistent with the empirical evidence for modern economies in the twentieth century.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Annarita Baldanzi","Alberto Bucci","Klaus Prettner"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051900035x","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b75331deaa1757ec","title":"Creating value through corporate social responsibility: The role of foreign institutional investors in Chinese listed firms","abstract":"FIO enhance firms’ ability to harness the power of CSR as a driver of innovation. This study examines the interplay between two major global trends—the growing role of foreign institutional ownership (FIO) due to financial liberalization and the rise of corporate social responsibility (CSR) as an investment ethos. We choose the setting of China, the world’s second-largest economy that has recently experienced substantial growth in foreign portfolio investment and increased its commitment to CSR . We document that CSR performance significantly influences the portfolio allocation decisions of certain types of FIO. Crucially, our analysis reveals that firms with a higher level of ownership by foreign institutional investors are associated with a more positive relation between CSR performance and firm value. This finding is robust to endogeneity examinations, including quasi-natural experiments and instrumental variable estimations. The finding is stronger for non-state-owned enterprises, firms with higher customer awareness, firms with more foreign directors, and firms with more frequent corporate site visits from FIO. Monitoring and advising are two likely channels through which FIO enhance the CSR-value relation. Finally, we demonstrate that FIO enhance firms’ ability to harness the power of CSR as a driver of innovation.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Yunhe Li","Yu Liu","Mihail K. Miletkov","Tina Yang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101621","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b760dc65f85f8d48","title":"On thin ice – The Arctic commodity extraction frontier and environmental conflicts","abstract":"This article contributes to the discussion on socio-environmental conflicts and extractive projects in the Arctic region. Fifty-three socio-environmental conflicts are analysed, using data from the Global Atlas of Environmental Justice. Based on descriptive statistics, regression and network analysis, the paper reveals that socio-environmental conflicts predominantly overlap with Indigenous peoples' territories, from which a transversal opposition takes place, including Indigenous, non-Indigenous and international actors alike. The main commodities involved in these conflicts are related to fossil fuels, metals, and transport infrastructure. Associated large-scale extractive activities are bringing negative socio-environmental impacts at the expense of Indigenous groups, fishermen, and pastoralists, with loss of traditional knowledge and practices being significantly higher in Indigenous territories of high bio-cultural values associated to the environment. Our findings suggest that repression against activists is significantly more likely to occur in absence of preventive mobilization, and in Arctic countries with low rule of law. The chances to achieve the cancellation of a conflictive extractive project are significantly higher if dependency on natural resource rents in a country is low.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Ksenija Hanaček","Markus Kröger","Arnim Scheidel","Facundo Rojas","Joan Martínez Alier"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107247","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b76503e07ae7e4fe","title":"Information transmission in voluntary disclosure games","abstract":"Does a better-informed sender transmit more accurate information in equilibrium? We show that, in a general class of voluntary disclosure games, unlike other strategic communication environments, the answer is positive. If the sender's evidence is more Blackwell informative, then the receiver's equilibrium utility increases. We apply our main result to show that an uninformed sender who chooses a test from a Blackwell-ordered set does so efficiently.","wordCount":66,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Avi Lichtig","Ran Weksler"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105653","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b7659cf592b9ee10","title":"The Leverage Ratchet Effect","abstract":"Firms’ inability to commit to future funding choices has profound consequences for capital structure dynamics. With debt in place, shareholders pervasively resist leverage reductions no matter how much such reductions may enhance firm value. Shareholders would instead choose to increase leverage even if the new debt is junior and would reduce firm value. These asymmetric forces in leverage adjustments, which we call the leverage ratchet effect , cause equilibrium leverage outcomes to be history‐dependent. If forced to reduce leverage, shareholders are biased toward selling assets relative to potentially more efficient alternatives such as pure recapitalizations.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Anat R. Admati","Peter M. DeMarzo","Martin Hellwig","Paul Pfleiderer"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12588","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b77c54bf9a29a408","title":"Framing and repeated competition","abstract":"We use a unified framework to model rent-seeking (Tullock) contests and games of strategic complements or substitutes. In each game, we compare an ‘abstract’ frame with an ‘economic’ frame. We find more competitive behavior under economic than under abstract framing in the contest and in the game of strategic complements, but not in the game of strategic substitutes. Variation in the strategic nature of the game interacts differently with preferences than with beliefs, allowing us to identify that framing operates primarily through beliefs, and diminishes as beliefs are updated. We model beliefs and preferences using a static and a dynamic framework and show that average choices and adaptation behavior can be explained if both preferences and beliefs are more competitive under economic framing. Our results suggest that some of the commonly observed competitive behavior in contest and oligopoly experiments could be explained by non-abstract framing being used in these studies.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Aidas Masiliūnas","Heinrich H. Nax"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.10.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b782dbed12bdd214","title":"The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy","abstract":"We study the impact of intersectoral and interregional trade linkages in propagating disaggregated productivity changes to the rest of the economy. Using U.S. regional and industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured total factor productivity, GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes. We find that the elasticities vary significantly depending on the sectors and regions affected, and are importantly determined by the spatial structure of the economy. We use our calibrated model to perform a variety of counterfactual exercises including several specific studies of the aggregate and disaggregate effects of shocks to productivity and infrastructure. The specific episodes we study include the boom in California’s computer industry, the productivity boom in North Dakota associated with the shale oil boom, the disruptions in New York’s finance and real state industries during the 2008 crisis, as well as the effect of the destruction of infrastructure in Louisiana following hurricane Katrina.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Lorenzo Caliendo","Fernando Parro","Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg","Pierre-Daniel Sarte"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx082","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b7859daf496b4295","title":"Location, Location, Quality:The Fixed Differentiation Principle","abstract":"This work revisits the classic spatial duopoly location-then-prices competition with quadratic transportation costs, in the presence of vertical differentiation. We show that contrary to the substitutability between horizontal and vertical differentiation that has appeared thus far in the literature, higher-quality asymmetry does not affect locational differentiation in equilibrium. While the better-quality seller indeed approaches the city center, the worse-quality seller is simultaneously driven further away from the city, and ultimately out of the market when quality differences become large enough. Interestingly, although vertical differentiation weakens competition, total welfare increases – even when the better-quality seller ultimately monopolizes the market.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Alon Cohen","Aviad Heifetz"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09989-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b7865866b863c0b7","title":"The determinants of decision time in an ambiguous context","abstract":"This paper builds on the data from a published paper on behaviour under ambiguity (Conte & Hey, 2013)—henceforth C&H—to explore the determinants of decision time . C&H categorized individual subjects as being of one of four types (of decision-maker)—Expected Utility, Smooth Ambiguity, Rank Dependent and Alpha Expected Utility—by using the decisions of the subjects, but did not look at the decision times of the different types. We take as given the categorization identified by C&H, and explore whether the classification can explain the decision times of the subjects. We investigate whether and why different types take a different amount of time to decide. We explore the effects of various features related to (mainly psychological) theories of the process of decision-making—i.e., experience with the task, complexity, closeness to indifference and similarity of the options. Our results show that different types take a similar time to make their decisions on average, but decision times of different types are explained by different features of the decision task. This paper is the first investigating the heterogeneity of decision times based on a classification of subjects into different types in an ambiguous (rather than risky) decision context.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Anna Conte","Gianmarco De Santis","John D. Hey","Ivan Soraperra"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09417-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b786b15f36378896","title":"New and Improved: Does FDI Boost Production Complexity in Host Countries?","abstract":"This article examines the relationship between the presence of foreign affiliates and product upgrading by Turkish manufacturing firms. The analysis suggests that Turkish firms in sectors and regions more likely to supply foreign affiliates tend to introduce more complex products, where complexity is captured using a measure developed by Hidalgo and Hausmann (). This finding is robust to controlling for omitted variables, sample selection and potential simultaneity bias. It is also in line with the view that inflows of foreign direct investment stimulate upgrading of indigenous production capabilities in host countries.","wordCount":91,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Beata Smarzynska Javorcik","Alessia Lo Turco","Daniela Maggioni"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12530","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-b78b039f8e7a4831","title":"The veracity of insider trading signals in financially distressed firms","abstract":"We conclude that insider purchases are partly driven by mispricing. We show that insider trading behaviour provides a credible signal of future share return performance within a sample of firms undergoing financial distress. We argue that when firms are in distress the incentive for insiders to employ their trading to send a false positive signal is high, however we find that distressed firms with insider buying have significantly better future share returns than firms with no insider trading or insider selling. We employ credit rating downgrades as confirmation of the distressed state, and we investigate the reasons why the positive signal associated with insider buying deviates from the negative downgrade signal of the rating agencies. Our analysis shows that this is not due to a lack of rating agency information; there are very few rating downgrade reversals. We conclude that insider purchases are partly driven by an over-reaction to bad news in the period of distress, which subsequently reverses; such mispricing would not be expected to be related to informed credit rating actions. We also find that the share return recovery is partial, and this leaves open the possibility that it is inadequate to reach the rating upgrade hurdle. While on average outside investors would benefit from retaining their shares in distressed firms with insider buying, we highlight a subset of firms where this is not the case.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Paula Hill","Adriana Korczak","Shuo Wang"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101713","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b79c03504aeaf865","title":"Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites: An application to housing rent and public transportation in Tokyo, Japan","abstract":"Geographical relationships between a housing unit and its major surrounding sites, such as public transportation stops and crime scenes, are fundamental factors that determine housing value. This paper proposes a new parametric approach to estimate the aggregate spatial effect of multiple heterogeneous sites while providing fruitful interpretations of the effect of each of these sites. While the proposed method is developed based on a traditional accessibility measure, the way in which it addresses the role of the proximity order of sites in the spatial analysis is novel. The method is applied empirically using rental housing data in Tokyo, Japan to examine how the clustering of train and subway stations influences the rental prices in their vicinity. The results reveal a discounting impact of the order of each station's proximity, even after controlling for the effect of distance. In addition, the results reveal that using a traditional accessibility measure without considering the proximity order leads to serious estimation biases. The proposed methodology is applicable to various spatial topics, such as transportation, neighborhood externalities and polycentric urban structures.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Taisuke Sadayuki"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.03.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b7a0dd58b3297e02","title":"Helping struggling students and benefiting all: Peer effects in primary education","abstract":"We exploit the randomized evaluation of a remedial education intervention that improved the reading skills of low-performing third grade students in Colombia, to study whether providing educational support to low-achieving students affects the academic performance of their higher-achieving classmates. We find that the test scores of non-treated children in treatment schools increased by 0.108 of a standard deviation compared to similar children in control schools. We interpret the reduced-form effect on higher-achieving students as a spillover effect within treated schools. We then estimate a linear-in-means model of peer effects, finding that a one-standard-deviation increase in peers’ contemporaneous achievement increases individual test scores by 0.679 of a standard deviation. Our findings show that policies aimed at improving the bottom of the achievement distribution have the potential to generate social-multiplier effects that benefit all.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Samuel Berlinski","Matí­as Busso","Michele Giannola"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104925","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b7a2fc7afe335c3e","title":"Genetic risk scores in life insurance underwriting","abstract":"Genetic tests that predict the lifetime risk of common medical conditions are fast becoming more accurate and affordable. The life insurance industry is interested in using predictive genetic tests in the underwriting process, but more research is needed to establish whether this nascent form of genetic testing can refine the process over conventional underwriting factors. Here, we perform Cox regression of survival on a battery of genetic risk scores for common medical conditions and mortality risks in the Health and Retirement Study, without returning results to participants. Adjusted for covariates in a relevant insurance scenario, the scores could improve mortality risk classification by identifying 2.6 years shorter median lifespan in the highest decile of total genetic liability. We conclude that existing genetic risk scores can already improve life insurance underwriting, which stresses the urgency of policymakers to balance competing interests between stakeholders as this technology develops.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Richard Karlsson Linnér","Philipp Koellinger"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102556","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b7b040429e5c9c05","title":"The Marginal Propensity to Consume over the Business Cycle","abstract":"We estimate how the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of liquidity varies over the business cycle. Ten years after a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the bankruptcy flag is removed from the filer’s credit report, generating an increase in credit score. In the year following flag removal, credit card limits increase by $778 and credit card balances increase by $290, implying an MPC of 0.37. Using cohorts of flag removals, we find that the MPC was 20 to 30 percent higher during the Great Recession, increased during the 2001 recession, and is positively correlated with the local unemployment rate.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Tal Gross","Matthew Notowidigdo","Jialan Wang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160287","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b7b2d5f68cd302cb","title":"Unwelcome Guests? The Effects of Refugees on the Educational Outcomes of Incumbent Students","abstract":"A point of contention in the refugee crisis involves possible adverse effects on host communities associated with poor, low-skilled migrants with low host-community language knowledge. We use unique matched birth and schooling records to examine the effects of a large influx of poor, non-English-speaking Haitian migrants into Florida public schools immediately following the devastating 2010 earthquake. We find zero or modestly positive estimated effects of these migrants on the educational outcomes of incumbent students in the year of the earthquake or in the 2 years that follow, regardless of the socioeconomic status, grade level, ethnicity, or birthplace of incumbent students.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["David Figlio","Umut Özek"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703116","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b7b88799c303c492","title":"Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries","abstract":"Inflation and unemployment reduce welfare of individuals and should be as low as possible in any economy. Cointegration and Granger causality tests suggest that there are long run relations between these two variables among the OECD economies. While rates of unemployment vary significantly among these economies, rates of inflation have stabilised at lower rates as a result of inflation targeting policies adopted in them during the last two decades. The Phillips curve phenomena are still empirically significant for 28 out of 35 of these OECD economies in country specific regressions; in fixed and random effect panel data models and in a panel VAR model for 1990:1 to 2014:4. Country specific supply curves and Okun curves are consistent to thin Phillips curve relations. Leftward shifts in the Beveridge and Phillips curves require labour market reforms balancing between job creations and destructions. Complementing macro stimulations by microeconomic structural and institutional reforms can bring efficiency in bargaining for wages and employment among firms and workers to make unemployment–inflation trade-offs more significant and relevant in these economies.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Keshab Bhattarai"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b7c292231f738a15","title":"Religion and insider trading profits","abstract":"We use the controversial aspect of insider trading to analyze the impact of local social norms on insiders’ profits. We argue that religiosity is a source of social norms curbing self-interested behavior and, accordingly, it limits corporate insiders’ opportunistic trading on private information. Our results confirm that trades by insiders in firms located in more religious areas are followed by lower profits, those insiders are less likely to trade on future earnings news, and their trades are less likely to be opportunistic. The effect of religion on profitability of insider trading holds across different levels of disclosure environments and is more pronounced in firms with poor corporate governance. Overall, we offer new insights into the effect of social norms on individuals’ financial decisions.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Harold Contreras","Adriana Korczak","Piotr Korczak"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106778","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b7c29d7b23ea17f0","title":"The impact of producer organizations on farm performance: The case study of large farms from Slovakia☆","abstract":"This paper estimates the farm level impact of producer organizations’ (PO) membership in Slovakia and the effectiveness of support provided to POs under the EU Rural Development Programme (RDP). We employ the PSM-DID econometric approach on a database of large Slovak commercial farms for 2006 and 2015. First, our results show that belonging to a PO improves the economic performance of farms in Slovakia. Second, in the short-run the support granted under RDP 2007–2013 to newly established PO does not improve the farm performance; only established and older POs (and potentially supported in the past) generate benefits to their members. Third, the estimates provide indirect evidence that the disbursement of PO support granted in the financial period 2007–2013 was rather ineffective in selecting POs with the highest potential to generate benefits to its members. Our analysis confirms that many POs were created for the sole purpose just to benefit from the support. This result is reinforced by the observed high closure rate of supported POs.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Jerzy Michalek","Pavel Ciaian","Ján Pokrivčák"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.12.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b7caf55700a525b9","title":"Real estate prices and land use regulations: Evidence from the Law of Heights in Bogotá","abstract":"Between 2015 and 2017, the Law of Heights (Policy-562) regulated areas of urban renewal in specific locations of Bogotá (Colombia). Using a novel dataset based on detailed information at the block level between 2008 and 2017, we study whether this policy affected real estate prices. Our empirical strategy compares the price per square meter before and after Policy-562 in treated blocks and in control blocks with similar pre-treatment traits. Results show that prices increased more in treated blocks than in the rest of the city. We also provide evidence that results are heterogeneous from a temporal, land use and strata point of view.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Diego Buitrago-Mora","Miquel-Àngel Garcia–López"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103914","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b7d3f2f8df517338","title":"Making digital technology innovation happen: The role of the CEO's information technology backgrounds","abstract":"Chief executive officers (CEOs) are the leaders of corporate innovation, but little is known about which types of CEOs are more conducive to digital technology innovation. Based on Chinese listed manufacturing companies from 2013 to 2020, we examine the effect of the information technology (IT) background of CEOs on digital technological innovation. The results show that CEOs' IT backgrounds significantly promote digital technology innovation. Curbing managerial myopia is the mechanism involved while strengthening digital sensemaking does not exist. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the facilitating role of CEOs' IT background is more pronounced when their power is more extensive, the company is nonstate-owned, mature, and large, and the region is highly marketized. Our findings contribute to the literature on the impact of executive characteristics on innovation and provide a reference for companies to promote digital technology innovation through the employment of specific CEOs.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Shuang Zhao","Yunfang Guan","Haiyan Zhou","Feng Hu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106866","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b7e8b15bf409b9c8","title":"Agricultural policy in the era of digitalisation","abstract":"Digitalisation in the agricultural sector continues to expand. At the same time demands for an agricultural policy offering better support for sustainability become increasingly fervent. However, it is far from clear how digitalisation could make agricultural policy more effective in reducing undesired impacts and enhancing the benefits of farming. This article investigates the extent to which digital technologies can trigger different choices of agricultural policy instruments and novel design specifications that address problems of sustainability in farming more effectively and possibly more efficiently. It develops and applies an analytical framework that focuses on the effects of digitalisation in distinct policy dimensions, drawing on theoretical insights and examples from practice in a European context. We show that digital agricultural policy does not simply replace analogue technologies used in traditional agricultural policy. It offers new options for agricultural policy, including novel designs to address challenges more effectively. In particular, it offers opportunities for more effective spatial targeting and tailoring of instruments, including results-based subsidies. Digital data can be generated strategically using respective instrument designs to support policy learning and adaptation of designs. Information-intensive instruments and designs generally benefit most from digitalisation while transaction costs often go down. Digitalisation could also move agricultural policy from direct intervention to information-based governance. However, the analysis suggests that institutional constraints and interests, as well as the capabilities of the actors involved require attention in research and practice of digitalisation of agricultural policy.","wordCount":236,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Melf‐Hinrich Ehlers","Robert Huber","Robert Finger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.102019","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b7fe54b80d926430","title":"When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession","abstract":"We study whether the solvency problems of Spain's weakest banks in the Great Recession have caused employment losses outside the financial sector. Our analysis focuses on the set of banks that were bailed out by the Spanish authorities. Data from the credit register of the Bank of Spain indicate that these banks curtailed lending well in advance of their bailout. We show the existence of a credit supply shock, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity through firm fixed effects, and assess its impact on employment. To this aim, we compare the changes in employment between 2006 and 2010 at client firms of weak banks to those at comparable firms with no significant precrisis relationship to weak banks. Our estimates imply that around 24% of job losses at firms attached to weak banks in our sample are due to this exposure. This accounts for one-half of the employment losses at firms that survived and one-third of employment losses at those that closed down","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Samuel Bentolila","Marcel Jansen","Gabriel Jiménez"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx021","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b80090093768b114","title":"The moderating role of culture on the benefits of economic freedom: Cross-country analysis","abstract":"The implementation of pro-market policies and institutions is often suggested for enhancing a country's development. However, implementing pro-market policies and institutions has a mixed track record. Some have ascribed the bad results to the neglect of people's predispositions, often described as culture. In this study, we argue that successful implementation of pro-market policies and institutions requires that large parts of the population know how to use the resulting freedom in a way that can bring long term benefits. A panel analysis on a sample of 67 countries from 1970 to 2019 confirms this theoretical argument. We find that Long Term Orientation increases the effect of economic freedom on income per capita, whereas Uncertainty Avoidance weakens the positive relationship between economic freedom and income per capita. The policy implication is that the introduction of free market policies and institutions will particularly foster economic development in long-term oriented societies and in societies with low Uncertainty Avoidance.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Johan Graafland","Eelke de Jong"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.09.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b802cfef7ddc1607","title":"A Distributional Framework for Matched Employer Employee Data","abstract":"We propose a framework to identify and estimate earnings distributions and worker composition on matched panel data, allowing for two‐sided worker‐firm unobserved heterogeneity and complementarities in earnings. We introduce two models: a static model that allows for nonlinear interactions between workers and firms, and a dynamic model that allows, in addition, for Markovian earnings dynamics and endogenous mobility. We show that this framework nests a number of structural models of wages and worker mobility. We establish identification in short panels, and develop tractable two‐step estimators where firms are classified in a first step. Applying our method to Swedish administrative data, we find that log‐earnings are approximately additive in worker and firm heterogeneity. Our estimates imply the presence of strong sorting patterns between workers and firms, and a small contribution of firms—net of worker composition—to earnings dispersion. In addition, we document that wages have a direct effect on mobility, and that, beyond their dependence on the current firm, earnings after a job move also depend on the previous employer.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Stéphane Bonhomme","Thibaut Lamadon","Elena Manresa"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15722","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b8059347f7d3be69","title":"Co-movements and spillovers of oil and renewable firms under extreme conditions: New evidence from negative WTI prices during COVID-19","abstract":"We test for the existence of volatility spillovers and co-movements among energy-focused corporations during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, inclusive of the April 2020 events where West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil future prices became negative. Employing the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012); as well as developing a DCC-FIGARCH conditional correlation framework and using estimated spillover indices built on a generalised vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering, we examine the sectoral transmission mechanisms of volatility shocks and contagion throughout the energy sector. Among several results, we find positive and economically meaningful spillovers from falling oil prices to both renewable energy and coal markets. However, this result is only found for the narrow portion of our sample surrounding the negative WTI event. We interpret our results being directly attributed to a sharp drop in global oil, gas and coal demand, rather than because of a sudden increase in oil supply. While investors observed the US fracking industry losing market share to coal, they also viewed renewables as more reliable mechanism to generate long-term, stable and low-cost supply.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Shaen Corbet","John W. Goodell","Samet Günay"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104978","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b8123441c360fa7e","title":"Do people really want to be informed? Ex-ante evaluations of information-campaign effectiveness","abstract":"We develop a method to assess population knowledge about any given topic. We define, and rationalize, types of beliefs that form the ‘knowledge spectrum’. Using a sample of over 7000 UK residents, we estimate these beliefs with respect to three topics: an animal-based diet, alcohol consumption and immigration. We construct an information-campaign effectiveness index (ICEI) that predicts the success of an information campaign. Information resistance is greatest for animal-based diets, and the ICEI is highest for immigration. We test the predictive power of our ICEI by simulating information campaigns, which produces supportive evidence. Our method can be used by any government or company that wants to explore the success of an information campaign.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Romain Espinosa","Jan Stoop"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09692-6","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b81be586c38e7654","title":"Choosing an electoral rule: Values and self-interest in the lab","abstract":"We study the choice of multi-person bargaining protocols in the context of politics. In politics, citizens are increasingly involved in the design of democratic rules, for instance via referendums. If they support the rule that best serves their self-interest, the outcome inevitably advantages the largest group. In this paper, we challenge this pessimistic view with an original lab experiment, in which 252 subjects participated. In the first stage, these subjects experience elections under plurality and approval voting. In the second stage, they decide which rule they want to use for extra elections. We find that egalitarian values that subjects hold outside of the lab shape their choice of electoral rule in the second stage when a rule led to a fairer distribution of payoffs compared to the other one in the first stage. The implication is that people have consistent ‘value-driven preferences’ for decision rules.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Damien Bol","André Blais","Maxime Coulombe","Jean‐François Laslier","Jean‐Benoît Pilet"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102602","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b83362b21f93e07f","title":"The relationship between LGBT inclusion and economic development: Macro-level evidence","abstract":"This study analyzes the relationship between social inclusion of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people and economic development. It uses legal and economic data for 132 countries from 1966 to 2011. Previous studies and reports provide substantial evidence that LGBT people are limited in their human rights in ways that also create economic harms, such as lost labor time, lost productivity, underinvestment in human capital, and the inefficient allocation of human resources. This analysis uses a fixed effects regression approach and a newly-created dataset -Global Index on Legal Recognition of Homosexual Orientation (GILRHO) -to assess how these detriments are related to the macroeconomy. Our study finds that an additional point on the 8-point GILRHO scale of legal rights for LGB persons is associated with an increase in real GDP per capita of approximately $2000. A series of robustness checks confirm that this index continues to have a positive and statistically significant association with real GDP per capita after controlling for gender equality. In combination with the qualitative evidence from previous studies and reports, our quantitative results suggest that LGBT inclusion and economic development are mutually reinforcing. Also, a back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests that about 6% to 22% of the finding could reflect the costs to GDP of health and labor market stigmatization of LGB people. Results from this study can help to better understand how the fuller enjoyment of human rights by LGBT people can contribute to a country's economic development.","wordCount":241,"journal":"World Development","authors":["M.V. Lee Badgett","C. Waaldijk","Yana van der Meulen Rodgers"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.03.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b841a044b660b9ce","title":"The effect of urbanization on environmental emissions: Evidence from a meta-analysis","abstract":"The growing trend of urbanization has important environmental implications, as it is often associated with rising emissions. In theory, urbanization can affect the environment in both beneficial and adverse ways. On the one hand, it can increase energy demand, contributing to environmental harm. Urban-driven economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption, potentially exacerbating environmental degradation. On the other hand, urbanization has the potential to mitigate environmental harm by fostering agglomeration effects, economies of scale, improved education, technological innovation, and the development of sustainable infrastructure. Empirical studies on the relationship between urbanization and emissions present mixed results, consistent with the theory. To address heterogeneity across empirical studies, we conducted a meta-analysis of 172 studies, resulting in 1598 effect sizes. Our funnel asymmetric test and precision effect test (FAT-PET) analysis suggests publication bias in previous research, but we do not find an overall significant effect of urbanization on emissions. However, when we disaggregated studies by region, we found that urbanization decreases emissions in Latin America, whereas it has no significant impact in Africa, Asia, and the West.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor","Binyam Afewerk Demena"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101573","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b84ae2b0d41042bf","title":"Exploring European regional trade","abstract":"We use the new dataset of trade flows across 269 European regions in 24 countries constructed in Santamaría et al. (2020) to systematically explore for the first time trade patterns within and across country borders. We focus on the differences between home trade, country trade and foreign trade. We document the following facts: (i) European regional trade has a strong home and country bias, (ii) geographic distance and national borders are important determinants of regional trade, but cannot explain the strong regional home bias and (iii) the home bias is heterogeneous across regions and seems to be driven by political regional borders.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Marta Santamaría","Jaume Ventura","Uğur Yeşilbayraktar"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103747","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b86061d64ca7acee","title":"Menu costs and information rigidity: Evidence from the consumption tax hike in Japan","abstract":"Pre-announced consumption tax changes can provide an opportunity for firms to reset their prices, which potentially leads to an economic stimulus. To test this argument, I examine firms’ price-setting behavior in response to Japan’s consumption tax hike in 2014. I find that prices became less sticky after the tax hike, suggesting that firms paid menu costs when passing through the tax hike to their prices. Nonetheless, I find that more than half of prices remained constant on a tax-excluded basis after the tax hike. This finding suggests that another factor prevented firms from adjusting their prices, though they paid menu costs.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["T. Shoji"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103400","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b863a2d181232ed5","title":"Targeted Poverty Alleviation and Children’s Academic Performance in China","abstract":"This paper estimates the causal impact of China’s targeted poverty alleviation program on the academic achievement of students from poor households. We use the longitudinal academic records of a cohort of students from all middle schools in a nationally designated poor county in China. Using the difference‐in‐differences approach, we show that targeted poverty alleviation improves the scholastic performance of girls and their achievement rank among peer students. However, we find no such empirical evidence for boys. Our findings suggest that the new anti‐poverty program in China has the potential to ameliorate the intergenerational transmission of low socioeconomic status to girls by promoting their human capital accumulation.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Huifu Nong","Qing Zhang","Hongjia Zhu","Rong Zhu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12517","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b86fd51394775d13","title":"Housing rent dynamics and rent regulation in St. Petersburg (1880–1917)","abstract":"This article studies housing rents in St. Petersburg from 1880 to 1917, covering an eventful period of Russian and world history. Digitizing over 5000 rental advertisements, we construct a state-of-the-art index – the first pre-war and pre-Soviet market data index for any Russian city. In 1915, a rent control and tenant protection policy was introduced in response to soaring prices following the outbreak of WWI. We document official compliance, rising tenure duration, and strongly increased affordability for workers. While the immediate prelude to the October Revolution was indeed characterized by economic turmoil, rent affordability did not dominate.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Konstantin A. Kholodilin","Leonid Limonov","Sofie R. Waltl"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101398","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b88484d7cb7b3b01","title":"Currency Unions and Trade: A PPML Re‐assessment with High‐dimensional Fixed Effects","abstract":"Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues associated with the three‐way (exporter‐time, importer‐time, and country pair) fixed effects currently recommended in the gravity literature have heretofore limited the choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we introduce an iterative poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure that facilitates the inclusion of these fixed effects for large data sets and also allows for correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously specified linear model. Most importantly, our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. We also document that linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Mario Larch","Joschka Wanner","Yoto V. Yotov","Thomas Zylkin"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12283","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b8945232dbf77ef4","title":"Italy and the little divergence in wages and prices: evidence from stable employment in rural areas<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"This article presents an early modern wage index for stable rural male workers in the Grand Duchy of Tuscany. These wages highlight the importance of distinguishing between locations and contract types when considering historical workers’ living standards, and they speak to a longstanding debate about whether Italy's early modern downturn was purely an urban phenomenon, or an all‐embracing one. Our data lend support to the former view, since we do not detect any downturn in our early modern rural wages. This observation informs the little divergence debate. By comparing rural rather than urban wages and stable rather than casual ones, we find that annual English earnings rose from being only 10 per cent higher than those in Italy in 1650 to being a staggering 150 per cent higher in 1800. If wages reflected labour productivity, then unskilled English workers—unlike their Italian counterparts—grew increasingly productive in the run‐up to the industrial revolution.","wordCount":151,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Mauro Rota","Jacob Weisdorf"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b894db3ecb73cd70","title":"The possibility of Bayesian learning in repeated games","abstract":"In infinitely repeated games, Nachbar (1997, 2005) has shown that Bayesian learning of a restricted strategy set is inconsistent; the beliefs required to learn any element of such a set will lead best responses to lie outside of it in most games. But I establish here that Nash convergence of Bayesian learning requires only that optimal play (rather than any possible play) is learnable, and an appropriately modified notion of learnability is consistent in many of the games to which Nachbar's result applies. This means that rational learning of equilibrium is possible in an important class including coordination games, which I illustrate with two examples of positive learning results.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Thomas Norman"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.09.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b89697c564b4ecbe","title":"Are product spreads useful for forecasting oil prices? An empirical evaluation of the verleger hypothesis","abstract":"Many oil industry analysts believe that there is predictive power in the product spread, defined as the difference between suitably weighted refined product market prices and the price of crude oil. We derive a number of alternative forecasting model specifications based on product spreads and compare the implied forecasts to the no-change forecast of the real price of oil. We show that not all product spread models are useful for out-of-sample forecasting, but some models are, even at horizons between one and two years. The most accurate model is a time-varying parameter model of gasoline and heating oil spot price spreads that allows for structural change in product markets. We document mean-squared prediction error reductions as high as 20% and directional accuracy as high as 63% at the two-year horizon, making product spread models a good complement to forecasting models based on economic fundamentals, which work best at short horizons.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Christiane Baumeister","Lutz Kilian","Xiaoqing Zhou"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000237","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b898c05722b1e03f","title":"Anti-corruption policy making, discretionary power and institutional quality: An experimental analysis","abstract":"We analyse policymakers’ incentives to fight corruption under different institutional qualities. We find that ‘public officials’, even when non-corrupt, significantly distort anti-corruption institutions by choosing a lower detection probability when this probability applies to their own actions (legal equality), compared to a setting where it does not (legal inequality). More surprising perhaps is the finding that policy-makers do not choose a zero level of detection on average, even when it applies to them too. Finally, corruption is significantly lower when the detection probability is exogenously set, suggesting that the institutional power to choose detection can itself be corruptive.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Amadou Boly","Robert Gillanders"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.05.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b8a1433d208c3b47","title":"Income Tax Progressivity: Trends and Implications","abstract":"This paper discusses how the structure of the tax system affects its progressivity. It suggests a measure of progressive capacity of tax systems, based on the Kakwani index, but independent of pretax income distributions. Using this and other progressivity measures, the paper (i) documents a decline in progressivity over the last decades and (ii) examines the relationship between progressivity and economic growth. On this relationship, regressions do not reveal a significant impact, suggesting that efficiency costs may be small – at least for degrees of progressivity observed in the sample. Finally, the paper finds that increasing tax progressivity reduces pretax inequality.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Claudia Gerber","Alexander Klemm","Li Liu","Victor Mylonas"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12331","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b8c1000b1735fa36","title":"Ancestry and international trade","abstract":"This paper examines whether the relatedness of populations across the world shapes international trade flows. Using data on common ancestry for 172 countries covering more than 99% of global trade, we document that country pairs with weaker ancestral relationships are less likely to trade with each other (extensive margin) and, if they do trade, they exchange fewer goods and smaller volumes (intensive margin). The effect of ancestry is robust to a vast array of micro-geographic control variables and mitigated, yet still sizable and significant, when controlling for other measures of cultural distance as well as for current migrant stocks.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Irene Fensore","Stefan Legge","Lukas Schmid"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.05.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b8cee19db1725ee6","title":"Conflict and counterinsurgency aid: Drawing sectoral distinctions","abstract":"We examine the impact of counterinsurgency aid on conflict in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2009. To enable this analysis we combine unique aid project data from NATO, household data from the Afghan government, and conflict data from US government sources. Our panel data analysis accounts for district and time period fixed effects across 398 districts and 57 months. Projects in the health sector successfully promote stability, whereas those in the education sector actually provoke conflict. Our findings are robust to reverse causation, confounding aid programs, and other sources of endogeneity. The results shed new perspective on the ‘hearts and minds’ theory commonly discussed in this vein of inquiry.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Travers Barclay Child"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b8d6e2078555b223","title":"Gender, ethnicity, and unequal opportunity in colonial Uganda: European influences, African realities, and the pitfalls of parish register data","abstract":"The renaissance of African economic history in the past decade has opened up new research avenues for studying the long‐term social and economic development of Africa. A sensitive treatment of African realities in the evaluation of European colonial legacies and a critical stance towards the use of new sources and approaches is crucial. In this article, we engage with a recent article by Meier zu Selhausen and Weisdorf to show how selection biases in, and Eurocentric interpretations of, parish registers have provoked an overly optimistic account of European influences on the educational and occupational opportunities of African men and women. We confront their dataset, drawn from the marriage registers of the Anglican Cathedral in Kampala, with Uganda's 1991 census, and show that trends in the literacy and numeracy of men and women born in Kampala lagged half a century behind those who wedded in Namirembe Cathedral. We run a regression analysis showing that access to schooling during the colonial era was unequal along lines of gender and ethnicity. We foreground the role of Africans in the spread of education, and we argue that European influences were not just diffusive but also divisive, and that gender inequality was reconfigured rather than eliminated under colonial rule.","wordCount":204,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Michiel de Haas","Ewout Frankema"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12618","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b8fadaa50b964d53","title":"Job Ladders and Earnings of Displaced Workers","abstract":"Workers who suffer job displacement experience surprisingly large and persistent earnings losses. This paper proposes an explanation for this robust empirical puzzle in a model of search with a significant job ladder and increased separation rates for the recently hired. In addition to capturing the depth and persistence of displaced worker earnings losses, the model matches: employment-to-nonemployment and employer-to-employer probabilities by tenure; the empirical decomposition of earnings losses into reduced wages and employment; observed wage dispersion; and the distribution of wage changes around a nonemployment event.","wordCount":86,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Pawel M. Krolikowski"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140064","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b8fb1020ff58819e","title":"Thinking outside the box: The cross-border effect of tax cuts on R&D","abstract":"We analyze how a reduction of the tax rate on corporate income from intellectual property (IP) in one country, known as a patent box regime, affects corporate R&D activity in other countries. Combining data on patents and multinational corporation networks, we show that the cross-border effect of tax policy changes depends on whether co-location of the IP and the underlying R&D activity is required. Patent boxes without such a requirement increase patent output in other countries. Patent boxes with such a requirement reduce patent output abroad but only when relocation costs for R&D activity are small.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Thomas Schwab","Maximilian Todtenhaupt"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104536","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b8fc651bdd47ecd2","title":"Unequal exchange rate pass-through across income groups","abstract":"Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices and into income loss are shown to be enough to calculate ERPT into welfare loss using implications of a simple model. These ERPT measures are estimated at the good level using a unique micro-price data set from Turkey, and they are combined with income-group-specific expenditure shares at the good level to obtain aggregate-level ERPT measures for alternative income groups. An exchange rate shock resulting in a real depreciation of 1% is shown to decrease welfare by about 0.80% for the average-income consumer, while this estimate ranges between 0.73% and 0.83% for consumers in the lowest- and highest-income quintiles, respectively, suggesting evidence for redistributive effects of an exchange rate shock. Using micro prices has further resulted in showing that traded, nondurable, flexible-price, or income-elastic goods contribute more to ERPT into welfare loss for the average-income consumer, suggesting important policy implications for filtering out the noise in the measurement of aggregate-level prices.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Hakan Yilmazkuday"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100520000358","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b9008d6e0aa4bdd6","title":"A revelation principle for obviously strategy-proof implementation","abstract":"We consider probabilistic versions of obviously strategy-proof implementation (Li, 2017) for stochastic rules, and provide an algorithm involving several ideas from the literature (Ashlagi and Gonczarowski, 2018; Pycia and Troyan, 2016; Bade and Gonczarowski, 2017) that converts any such implementation into a randomized round table implementation, where the administrator randomly selects a game form in which agents take turns making public announcements about their private information (Theorem 1). We provide an analogous algorithm for sure implementation of deterministic rules (Theorem 2); this builds on related results from the literature by (i) relaxing all recall requirements, (ii) allowing randomization by the agents, and (iii) allowing all game trees for which choices determine plays (Alós-Ferrer and Ritzberger, 2016). We discuss a variety of implications and related topics.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Andrew Mackenzie"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.09.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b90167918c248dbb","title":"Trade-Induced Structural Change and the Skill Premium","abstract":"We study how international trade affects manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers when goods and services are traded with different intensities. Manufacturing trade reduces manufacturing prices worldwide, which reduces manufacturing employment if manufactures and services are complements. International trade also raises real income, which reduces manufacturing employment if services are more income elastic than manufactures. Manufacturing production is unskilled-labor-intensive, so that these changes increase the skill premium. We incorporate these mechanisms in a quantitative trade model and show that reductions in trade costs had a negative impact on manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Javier Cravino","Sebastian Sotelo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170434","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b906a0c545b3a525","title":"Demographics and Automation","abstract":"We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Pascual Restrepo"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b90ba2822b942928","title":"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty","abstract":"We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles—indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our U.S. index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt ceiling dispute, and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, health care, finance, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel vector autoregressive setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our U.S. index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upward since the 1960s.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Scott Baker","Nicholas Bloom","Steven J. Davis"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b917d80652135b95","title":"Adaptation and Adverse Selection in Markets for Natural Disaster Insurance","abstract":"This paper quantifies frictions in uptake, tests for adverse selection, and analyzes welfare effects of proposed reforms in natural disaster insurance markets. I find that willingness to pay is remarkably low. In high-risk flood zones, fewer than 60 percent of homeowners purchase flood insurance even though premiums are only two-thirds of own costs. Estimating flood insurance demand and cost elasticities using house-level variation in premiums from recent US congressional reforms reveals that these homeowners select into insurance based on observable differences in adaptation but not private information about risk. These findings change the sign of predicted welfare effects of proposed policies.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Katherine R. H. Wagner"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200378","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b921142c9dcb2297","title":"Public childcare benefits children and mothers: Evidence from a nationwide experiment in a developing country","abstract":"This paper evaluates a public childcare program for children ages 0–4 in poor urban areas in Nicaragua. Our identification strategy exploits the program’s neighborhood-level randomization as exogenous variation to tackle imperfect compliance with the original treatment assignments. We find a positive impact of 0.38 standard deviations on socio-emotional skills and a 12-percentage-point increase on mothers’ work, which makes the program highly cost-effective. We do not find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of impacts across observed or unobserved household characteristics, and we present suggestive evidence of the importance of center quality for generating positive impacts.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Andrés Hojman","Florencia López Bóo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104686","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b92ebc3ec25ad63c","title":"The age of mass migration in Latin America","abstract":"The experiences of Latin American countries are not fully incorporated into current debates concerning the age of mass migration, even though 13 million Europeans migrated to the region between 1870 and 1930. This survey draws together different aspects of the Latin America immigration experience. Its main objective is to rethink the role of European migration to the region, addressing several major questions in the economics of migration: whether immigrants were positively selected from their sending countries, how immigrants assimilated into the host economies, the role of immigration policies, and the long‐run effects of immigration. Immigrants came from the economically backward areas of southern and eastern Europe, yet their adjustment to the host labour markets in Latin America seems to have been successful. The possibility of rapid social upgrading made Latin America attractive for European immigrants. Migrants were positively selected from origin according to literacy. The most revealing aspect of new research is showing the positive long‐run effects that European immigrants had in Latin American countries. The political economy of immigration policies deserves new research, particularly for Brazil and Cuba. The case of Argentina shows a more complex scenario than the classic representation of landowners constantly supporting an open‐door policy.","wordCount":199,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Blanca Sánchez Alonso"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12787","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b92fb50085bb90d2","title":"The Welfare Effects of Nudges: A Case Study of Energy Use Social Comparisons","abstract":"“Nudge”-style interventions are often deemed successful if they generate large behavior change at low cost, but they are rarely subjected to full social welfare evaluations. We combine a field experiment with a simple theoretical framework to evaluate the welfare effects of one especially policy-relevant intervention, home energy social comparison reports. In our sample, the reports increase social welfare, although traditional evaluation approaches overstate gains because they ignore significant costs incurred by nudge recipients. Overall, home energy report welfare gains might be overstated by $620 million. We develop a prediction algorithm for optimal targeting; this approach would double the welfare gains.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Hunt Allcott","Judd B. Kessler"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170328","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b92fc0a24572a030","title":"Social protection and resilience: The case of the productive safety net program in Ethiopia","abstract":"Improving household resilience is becoming one of the key focus and target of social protection programs in Africa. However, there is surprisingly little direct evidence of the impacts of social protection programs on household resilience measures. We use five rounds of panel data to examine rural households’ resilience outcomes associated with participation in Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP). Following Cissé and Barrett (2018), we employ a probabilistic moment-based approach for measuring resilience and evaluate the role of PSNP transfers and duration of participation on households’ resilience. We document four important findings. First, although PSNP transfers are positively associated with resilience, PSNP transfers below the median are less likely to generate meaningful improvements in resilience. Second, continuous participation in the PSNP is associated with higher resilience. Third, combining safety nets with income generating or asset building initiatives may be particularly efficacious at building poor households’ resilience. Fourth, our evaluation of both short-term welfare (consumption) and longer-term outcomes (resilience) suggests that these outcomes are likely to be driven by different factors, suggesting that optimizing intervention designs for improving short term welfare impacts may not necessarily improve households’ resilience, and vice versa. Together, our findings imply that effectively boosting household resilience may require significant transfers over multiple years. National safety nets programs that transfer small amounts to beneficiaries over limited time horizons may not be very effective.","wordCount":225,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Kibrom A. Abay","Mehari Hiluf Abay","Guush Berhane","Jordan Chamberlin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102367","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b933b76e9dfed576","title":"Drivers of public procurement prices: Evidence from pharmaceutical markets","abstract":"This paper examines the determinants of public procurement prices using comprehensive data on pharmaceutical purchases by the public sector in Chile. We first document sizable price differences between buyers for the same product and quantity purchased: the difference between the average prices paid by buyers at the 90th and 10th percentiles of the distribution is 16 percent. Our main results are related to the importance of market structure in explaining the dispersion in procurement prices. We find that market structure explains three times more dispersion than buyer effects. Moreover, we leverage exogenous variation in market structure due to patent expirations to estimate that the entry of an additional seller decreases average procurement prices by 11.7 percent, which is 72 percent of the price differences implied by the gap between the 90th and 10th percentiles of estimated buyer effects. These results suggest that supply-side factors are relevant determinants of public procurement prices and that their quantitative importance may exceed that of demand-side factors previously emphasized in the literature.","wordCount":167,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Claudia Allende","Juan Pablo Atal","Rodrigo Carril","José Ignacio Cuesta","Andrés González-Lira"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103086","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b9345b6309758345","title":"The Quality of Employment (QoE) in nine Latin American countries: A multidimensional perspective","abstract":"This paper proposes a methodology for measuring the quality of employment from a multidimensional and public policy perspective in Latin American developing countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) using household and labour force survey data from 2015. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the QoE can be measured using a multidimensional methodology that can inform policy makers about the state of their labour markets in a way that complements traditional variables such as participation or unemployment rates, which are not always good indicators of labour market performance in developing countries with large informal sectors. Building on the framework of the capability approach as well as on previous work on multidimensional poverty, we use the Alkire/Foster (AF) method to construct a synthetic indicator of the quality of employment (QoE) at an individual level. We select three dimensions that must be considered as both instrumentally and intrinsically important to workers and the functions and capabilities generated by their employment situation: income, job security and employment conditions. Job security is then divided into two sub-dimensions (occupational status and job tenure), as is employment conditions (social security affiliation and excessive working hours). A threshold is then established within each dimension and sub-dimension to determine whether a person is deprived or not within each dimension, before establishing an overall cut-off line and calculating composite levels of deprivation. The results generated by this indicator are, first, highly relevant to policy makers as they allow for the precise identification of groups of vulnerable workers as well as of dimensions and indicators, which contribute to deprivation in the labour market. Second, they extend the debate about employment in developing countries to variables not commonly considered by the literature as being critical to the well-being of workers and their dependents, such as occupational status and job tenure. Third, this paper highlights important difference between Latin American countries, both in terms of the overall QoE Index result as well as its component dimensions. While Chile presents the best results in the region, Paraguay presents the worst, followed by Mexico, Bolivia and Peru. However, Chile, Peru, Columbia and Brazil, for example, have the biggest problem with job rotation. Finally, the paper highlights that low rates of unemployment are not necessarily related to low rates of deprivation in terms of the QoE. In fact, in some countries analysed (e.g. Mexico) the opposite is true.","wordCount":401,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Kirsten Sehnbruch","Pablo González","Mauricio Apablaza","Rocío Méndez","Verónica Arriagada"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104738","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-b947fa5b08be6eb2","title":"Teacher Expectations Matter","abstract":"We show that tenth-grade teacher expectations affect students' likelihood of college completion. Our approach leverages a unique feature of a nationally representative dataset: two teachers provided their educational expectations for each student. Identification exploits teacher disagreements about the same student, an idea we formalize using a measurement error model. We estimate an elasticity of college completion with respect to teachers' expectations of 0.12. On average, teachers are overly optimistic, though white teachers are less so with black students. More accurate beliefs are counterproductive if there are returns to optimism or sociodemographic gaps in optimism. We find evidence of both.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Nicholas Papageorge","Seth Gershenson","Kyung Min Kang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00838","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b948561eca97061a","title":"Early Impacts of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage in Medicaid Expansion and Non‐Expansion States","abstract":"The Affordable Care Act (ACA) aimed to achieve nearly universal health insurance coverage in the United States through a combination of insurance market reforms, mandates, subsidies, health insurance exchanges, and Medicaid expansions, most of which took effect in 2014. This paper estimates the causal effects of the ACA on health insurance coverage in 2014 using data from the American Community Survey. We utilize difference-in-difference-in-differences models that exploit cross-sectional variation in the intensity of treatment arising from state participation in the Medicaid expansion and local area pre-ACA uninsured rates. This strategy allows us to identify the effects of the ACA in both Medicaid expansion and non-expansion states. Our preferred specification suggests that, at the average pre-treatment uninsured rate, the full ACA increased the proportion of residents with insurance by 5.9 percentage points compared to 2.8 percentage points in states that did not expand Medicaid. Private insurance expansions from the ACA were due to increases in both employer-provided and non-group coverage. The coverage gains from the full ACA were largest for those without a college degree, non-whites, young adults, unmarried individuals, and those without children in the home. We find no evidence that the Medicaid expansion crowded out private coverage.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Charles Courtemanche","James Marton","Benjamin Ukert","Aaron Yelowitz","Daniela Zapata"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21961","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b9511285261f907f","title":"The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Private Law Enforcement: Evidence from University Police","abstract":"Over a million people in the United States are employed in private security and law enforcement, yet very little is known about the effects of private police on crime. The current study examines the relationship between a privately funded university police force and crime in a large US city. Following an expansion of the jurisdictional boundary of the private police force, we see no short-term change in crime. However, using a geographic regression discontinuity approach, we find large impacts of private police on public safety, with violent crime in particular decreasing. These contradictory results appear to be a consequence of a delayed effect of private police on crime.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Paul Heaton","Priscillia Hunt","John S. Macdonald","Jessica Saunders"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690732","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b95e7b5241c2e0c4","title":"The long-term cognitive and schooling effects of childhood vaccinations in China","abstract":"By exploiting rich retrospective data on childhood immunization, socioeconomics, and health status in China (the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study), we assess the long-term effects of childhood vaccination on cognitive and educational outcomes in that country. To do so, we apply various techniques (e.g., propensity score and coarsened exact matching and correlated random effects) to different sets of conditioning variables and subsamples to estimate the average treatment on the treated effect of childhood vaccination. Our results confirm that vaccinations before the age of 15 have long-term positive and economically meaningful effects on nonhealth outcomes such as education and cognitive skills. These effects are relatively strong, with vaccinated individuals enjoying about one more year of schooling and performing substantially better later in life on several cognitive tests.","wordCount":127,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Hamid R. Oskorouchi","Alfonso Sousa‐Poza","David E. Bloom"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102293","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b97ea593ced4cf5b","title":"Job search in the presence of a stressor: Does financial hardship change the effectiveness of job search?","abstract":"Following a group of 2,973 Australian unemployed job seekers over time, we confirm predictions from Self-Determination Theory, Conservation of Resources Theory and Scarcity Theory that the presence of financial hardship during job search adversely affects job search quality and subsequently job search effectiveness (measured one year later). We show the importance in labor market research of controlling for a range of confounding factors including the impact of financial hardship on job search intensity. The implemented controls allow more precise inferences of the effect of financial hardship on job search quality/effectiveness, than so far achieved in this emerging body of literature.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Ruud Gerards","Riccardo Welters"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102508","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b99d814dc63e9fcc","title":"Land reform and illegal adoption of children","abstract":"The paper examines how China’s land reform between 1978 and 1984 altered economic incentives, leading to observable household responses, with involvement in illegal adoption as a key example. The reform transferred land rights from collectives to individual households, granting them control over land-based income and thereby increasing the demand for children as labor and heirs. Leveraging a unique dataset that tracks the inflow of trafficked children and the staggered rollout of the reform, we use triple differences and other identification strategies to demonstrate that land decollectivization significantly increased the illegal adoption of abandoned or abducted children in rural areas. This land usage rights shock was moderated by clan influence, which traditionally valued bloodlines, highlighting the importance of the interaction between culture and institutions.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Yanjun Li","Yu Bai","Masaki Nakabayashi"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.01.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b9b7e6a3f0d7376f","title":"Demographic change and the rate of return in pay-as-you-go pension systems","abstract":"The ongoing demographic change in most developed countries consists of two coinciding independent developments that differ in structure and persistence: A slow, monotonic and (presumably) permanent longevity effect caused by an increasing life expectancy; and a more rapidly changing, non-monotonic and less permanent cohort effect caused by fluctuations in the size of cohorts. This paper shows the longevity effect has a positive impact on the rates of return households generate within a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. The cohort effect, by contrast, results in winners and losers in PAYG systems. The paper additionally shows that the type of PAYG pension system alters the results significantly. Taking the remarkable demographic change in Germany as an example, a large-scale overlapping generation model quantifies rates of return within the PAYG pension system for every cohort. The results show that the two effects combined cause return differentials of almost 1.3 percentage points between generations.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Matthias Schön"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00938-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b9bd29dfdc898e87","title":"Recasting the Iron Rice Bowl: The Reform of China's State-Owned Enterprises","abstract":"Following the enactment of reforms in the mid-1990s, China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) became more profitable. Using theoretical insights from Azmat, Manning, and Van Reenen (2012) and Karabarbounis and Neiman (2014) and econometric methods in De Loecker andWarzynski (2012), this paper finds that SOE restructuring was nevertheless limited. This is because SOE profitability gains in part reflect that they were under less political pressure to hire excess labor and also their cost of capital fell and their capital-labor elasticity of substitution generally exceeded unity. Moreover, SOE productivity lagged that of foreign and private firms.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Daniel Berkowitz","Hong Ma","Shuichiro Nishioka"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00637","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b9ca609d38886e41","title":"The Returns to College Persistence for Marginal Students: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from University Dismissal Policies","abstract":"We estimate the returns to college using administrative data on both college enrollment and earnings. Exploiting that colleges dismiss low-performing students on the basis of exact GPA cutoffs, we use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the earnings impacts of college. Dismissal leads to a short-run increase in earnings and tuition savings, but the future fall in earnings is sufficiently large that 8 years after dismissal, persisting students have already recouped their up-front investment with an internal rate of return of 4.1%. We provide a variety of evidence that manipulation of the running variable does not drive our results.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Ben Ost","Weixiang Pan","Douglas Webber"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696204","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b9f4adff21cee301","title":"Long‐Run Health Repercussions of Drought Shocks: Evidence from South African Homelands","abstract":"I present new evidence from Africa that droughts are an important component of long‐run variation in health human capital. Using Census data, I estimate effects of early childhood drought exposure on later‐life disabilities among South Africans confined to homelands during apartheid. By exploiting 40 years of quasi‐random variation in local droughts experienced by different cohorts in different districts, I find that drought exposure in infancy raises later‐life disability rates by 3.5–5.2%, with effects concentrated in physical and mental disabilities, and largest for males. My findings are relevant for low‐income settings where avoiding droughts through migration is costly.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Taryn Dinkelman"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12361","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-b9f5623976b97d82","title":"Does studying economics make you selfish?","abstract":"It is widely held that studying economics makes you more selfish and politically conservative. We use a difference‐in‐differences strategy to disentangle the causal impact of economics education from selection effects. We estimate the effect of four different intermediate microeconomics courses on students' experimentally elicited social preferences and beliefs about others, and policy opinions. We find no discernible effect of studying economics (whatever the course content) on self‐interest or beliefs about others' self‐interest. Results on policy preferences also point to little effect, except that economics may make students somewhat less opposed to highly restrictive immigration policies.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Daniele Girardi","Sai Madhurika Mamunuru","Simon D. Halliday","Samuel Bowles"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12672","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-b9fd66f1fc576926","title":"Do carbon footprint labels promote climatarian diets? Evidence from a large-scale field experiment","abstract":"We estimate the causal effect of carbon footprint labels on individual food choices and quantify potential carbon emission reductions, using data from a large-scale field experiment at five university cafeterias with over 80,000 individual meal choices. Results show that carbon footprint labels led to a decrease in the probability of selecting a high-carbon footprint meal by approximately 2.7 percentage points with consumers substituting to mid-carbon impact meals. We find no change in the market share of low-carbon meals, on average. The reduction in high-carbon footprint meals is driven by decreases in sales of meat meals while sales of mid-ranged vegan, vegetarian and fish meals all increased. We estimate that the introduction of carbon footprint labels was associated with a 4.3% reduction in average carbon emissions per meal. We contrast our findings with those from nudge-style interventions and discuss the cost-effectiveness of carbon footprint labels. Our results suggest that carbon footprint labels present a viable and low-cost policy tool to address information failure and harness climatarian preferences to encourage more sustainable food choices.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Paul Lohmann","Elisabeth Gsottbauer","Anya Doherty","Andreas Kontoleon"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102693","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-b9fdcf854bd2877e","title":"Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance","abstract":"This paper develops an overlapping generations model with debt-financed public investment. The model assumes that government is subject to the golden rule of public finance and that households are finitely lived in the sense of Yaari–Blanchard. It is shown that the growth-maximizing tax rate is not equivalent to the welfare-maximizing one; in addition, both tax rates are lower than the output elasticity of public capital. This paper also derives the threshold value of public debt to GDP ratio that maximizes the equilibrium growth rate and social welfare, i.e., the inverted-U relation between the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate suggested by empirical studies. Furthermore, this paper shows that both tax rates and the public debt to GDP ratio positively depend on longevity. This result provides a possible explanation for the rising tendency of the public debt to GDP ratio under population aging in countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Akira Kamiguchi","Toshiki Tamai"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.01.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba0ce43969f0a6e3","title":"Optimal disclosure decisions when there are penalties for nondisclosure","abstract":"We study a seller of an asset who is liable for damages if the seller fails to disclose to buyers an estimate of the asset's value he knew prior to the sale. Our results include as either the “damages multiplier” that determines the size of the damages the seller must pay buyers increases, or as the probability the seller is caught withholding his estimate from buyers increases, the seller discloses his estimate less often, and as the precision of the seller's estimate increases, he sells a larger fraction of the asset.","wordCount":91,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Ronald A. Dye"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","K","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12197","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ba1d15149b8b6dc3","title":"Policy and misallocation: Evidence from Chinese firm-level data","abstract":"Using a rich dataset of Chinese firms, we investigate the effect of industrial policies on resource misallocation. Our difference-in-difference model estimates provide evidence that government policies increased the dispersion of revenue productivity across firms in four-digit industries targeted for support relative to other industries, suggesting a negative impact on aggregate TFP. Estimates of a changes-in-changes model reveal that the policies had a heterogeneous impact across the productivity distribution of firms in supported industries. Furthermore, we show that the heightened misallocation is related to the way in which the Chinese government doled out support through subsidies for a subset of firms.","wordCount":100,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Guowen Chen","Ana María Herrera","Steven Lugauer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104260","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ba27e0fb3e8d6abf","title":"Experimental Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Community-Based Monitoring","abstract":"We evaluate the longer run impact of a local accountability intervention in primary health care provision in Uganda. Short-run improvements in health care delivery and health outcomes remained in the longer run despite minimal follow-up. We find no impact on the quality of care or health outcomes of a lower cost intervention that focused on encouraging participation but did not provide information on staff performance. We provide suggestive evidence that informed beneficiaries are more likely to identify and challenge (mis)behavior by providers and, as a result, turn their focus to issues that they can manage locally.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Martina Björkman Nyqvist","Damien de Walque","Jakob Svensson"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ba28f15b160c2cb0","title":"Transaction fee economics in the Ethereum blockchain","abstract":"We study the economic determinants of transaction fees in the Ethereum blockchain. We estimate an empirical model based on queueing theory and analyze the factors determining the “gas price” (transaction cost per unit of service, “gas”). Using block‐ and transaction‐level data from the Ethereum blockchain, we show that changes in service demand significantly affect the gas price—when there is high block utilization, per‐unit fees increase on average, with strong nonlinear effect above 90% utilization. The transaction type is another important factor—larger fraction of regular transactions (direct transfers between users) is associated with higher gas price.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Anil Donmez","Alexander Karaivanov"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ba2b5c1c85621c34","title":"School choice under partial fairness","abstract":"We generalize the school choice problem by defining a notion of allowable priority violations. In this setting, a weak axiom of stability (partial stability) allows only certain priority violations. We introduce a class of algorithms called the student exchange under partial fairness (SEPF). Each member of this class gives a partially stable matching that is not Pareto dominated by another partially stable matching (i.e., constrained efficient in the class of partially stable matchings). Moreover, any constrained efficient matching that Pareto improves upon a partially stable matching can be obtained via an algorithm within the SEPF class. We characterize the unique algorithm in the SEPF class that satisfies a desirable incentive property. The extension of the model to an environment with weak priorities enables us to provide a characterization result that proves the counterpart of the main result in Erdil and Ergin (2008).","wordCount":142,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Umut Dur","A. Arda Gitmez","Özgür Yılmaz"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2482","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ba3a6355ae71d68d","title":"Anomalies and the Expected Market Return","abstract":"We provide the first systematic evidence on the link between long‐short anomaly portfolio returns—a cornerstone of the cross‐sectional literature—and the time‐series predictability of the aggregate market excess return. Using 100 representative anomalies from the literature, we employ a variety of shrinkage techniques (including machine learning, forecast combination, and dimension reduction) to efficiently extract predictive signals in a high‐dimensional setting. We find that long‐short anomaly portfolio returns evince statistically and economically significant out‐of‐sample predictive ability for the market excess return. The predictive ability of anomaly portfolio returns appears to stem from asymmetric limits of arbitrage and overpricing correction persistence.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Xi Dong","Yan Li","David E. Rapach","Guofu Zhou"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13099","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ba3a92a39cf2d072","title":"Democratic regulation of AI in the workplace","abstract":"When artificial intelligence (AI) displaces lower-skilled workers with higher intensity, electoral democracies may slow down automation in fear of unemployment and voter resentment. Using a Downsian model of elections where parties promise to limit automation and redistribute automation surplus, we show that when automation is highly productive democracies implement maximum automation, making all workers vulnerable to redundancy and distribute the entire surplus among the working population. Majority of the workers are gainers in the sense that their expected earnings exceed their (pre-automation) wage. When the automation surplus is low, democracies restrict automation and protect the high-skilled workers (including the median-skilled worker) but redistribute nothing to the vulnerable workers. Here, because of no compensation for redundancy all vulnerable workers become losers as their expected earnings fall below their basic wage. For highly productive automation, democracies achieve the first best worker welfare but otherwise may over- or under-provide automation.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Jaideep Roy","Bibhas Saha"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.04.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba3b802a38720fa5","title":"Cumulative global forest carbon implications of regional bioenergy expansion policies","abstract":"by 2095. Even if most of the increased forest biomass demand arises from one region (e.g., Europe) due to a particularly strong promotion of forest bioenergy expansion, changes in forest management globally in anticipation of this demand increase could result in carbon beneficial outcomes that can be shared by most regions.","wordCount":51,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Sei Jin Kim","Justin S. Baker","Brent Sohngen","Michael J. Shell"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.04.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ba3bc7f1d56fc40d","title":"In absence of money: a field experiment on volunteer work motivation","abstract":"Although volunteers are a critical resource for non-profit organizations, little is known about how best to motivate them to work. A non-profit organization asked episodic volunteers to produce handmade greeting cards to sell at a fundraising event. By running a natural field experiment, we study the effect of motivating these volunteers through (a) the opportunity to vote on how the money that was raised would be spent and (b) the prospect of individual performance feedback. We find an economically and statistically significant positive effect of both tools on the quantity of work done, while the quality is mostly unaffected. Moreover, we observe significant gender differences in responsiveness to the treatments. While the prospect for feedback is more motivating to men, women respond more strongly to the opportunity to decide how the money would be spent. Empowerment seems to be a simple way to increase engagement for people with low enjoyment.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Vanessa Mertins","Christian Walter"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09686-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba4350a51ca557f3","title":"Domestic versus international emissions trading with capital mobility","abstract":"We employ the footloose capital model to examine and compare how two countries decide on their emission permits non-cooperatively under domestic and international emissions trading in the presence of capital mobility. We find that even if two countries are symmetric and have the same carbon prices under domestic emissions trading, they can benefit from international emissions trading. This finding holds regardless of capital mobility. We also find that allowing footloose capital increases each country’s and global emissions under domestic emissions trading; however, it does not affect emissions under international emissions trading. Additionally, we show that the cooperative choices of emission permits are the same regardless of international mobility of emission permits and capital and are always lower than the non-cooperative ones.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Haitao Cheng"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101433","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba47ee5f1b5d0ef5","title":"Opinion dynamics meet agent-based climate economics: An integrated analysis of carbon taxation","abstract":"We introduce an integrated approach, blending Opinion Dynamics with a Macroeconomic Agent-Based Model (OD-MABM) to explore the co-evolution of climate change mitigation policy and public support. The OD-MABM links a novel opinion dynamics model that is calibrated for European countries using survey data to the Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes model (DSK). Opinion dynamics regarding climate policy arise from complex interactions among social, political, economic and climate systems where a household's opinion is affected by individual economic conditions, perception of climate change, industry-led (dis-)information and social influence. We examine 133 policy pathways in the EU, integrating various carbon tax schemes and revenue recycling mechanisms. Our findings reveal that effective carbon tax policies initially lead to a decline in public support due to substantial macroeconomic transition costs, threatening political feasibility. However, they also pave the way for a positive social tipping point in the future. This shift stems from the evolving economic and political influence associated with the fossil fuel-based industry, which gradually diminishes as the transition unfolds. Second, hybrid revenue recycling strategies that combine green subsidies with climate dividends successfully address this intertemporal trade-off in our model by accelerating the transition and mitigating its economic fallout, thus broadening public support.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Teresa Lackner","Luca Eduardo Fierro","Patrick Mellacher"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106816","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba65e077220726bb","title":"A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms","abstract":"In recent years, electricity markets have been characterized by a growing share of fluctuating renewable energies, which has increased concerns about the security of electricity supply. As a consequence, existing market designs are adapted, and new capacity remuneration mechanisms are introduced. However, these mechanisms entail new challenges, and it is disputed whether they are indeed needed. In this article, an overview of the current debate on the necessity of capacity remuneration mechanisms is provided. Furthermore, initial experiences of real-world implementations are discussed, and common findings in the literature, categorized by their economic implications, are derived. Finally, shortcomings in existing research and open questions that need to be addressed in future works are pointed out.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Andreas Bublitz","Dogan Keles","Florian Zimmermann","Christoph Fraunholz","Wolf Fïchtner"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.030","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba6697762263388e","title":"Friendship at Work: Can Peer Effects Catalyze Female Entrepreneurship?","abstract":"Does the lack of peers contribute to the observed gender gap in entrepreneurial success? A random sample of customers of India's largest women's bank was offered two days of business counseling, and a random subsample was invited to attend with a friend. The intervention significantly increased participants' business activity, but only if they were trained with a friend. Those trained with a friend were more likely to have taken out business loans, were less likely to be housewives, and reported increased business activity and higher household income, with stronger impacts among women subject to social norms that restrict female mobility.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Erica Field","Seema Jayachandran","Rohini Pande","Natalia Rigol"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140215","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ba71a8d57082e256","title":"How do institutional settings condition the effect of macroprudential policies on bank systemic risk?","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of different country-traits of the effects of macroprudential policies on systemic risks in OECD countries. The analysis documents that institutional quality, high capital stringency, and moderate supervision support macroprudential policies in mitigating systemic risks, depending on macroprudential instruments in force. Institutional, regulatory and supervisory frameworks differently affect the effectiveness of lender- vis-à-vis borrower-targeted policies.","wordCount":59,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Nicholas Apergis","Ahmet Faruk Aysan","Yassine Bakkar"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110123","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba88fbcb2b5c28cd","title":"Analyzing political preferences of second-generation immigrants across the rural–urban divide","abstract":"This paper analyzes the political preferences of immigrants’ offspring in relation to the rural–urban divide of political preferences in European countries. Using data on individual voting behavior and political preferences in 22 European countries between 2001 and 2017, we analyze whether second-generation immigrants have different preferences on a left–right political spectrum, relative to other natives. We show that they have a significant left-wing preference after controlling for a large set of individual characteristics and origin fixed effects. In spite of their concentration in urban areas, where native residents are also more left-leaning than the average, this difference is not a result of their location, as the difference is particularly strong in non-urban areas. Second-generation immigrants are also more likely to be politically active, to participate in demonstrations or petitions and to exhibit stronger preferences for inequality-reducing government intervention, internationalism and multiculturalism. Growing up with an immigrant father experiencing challenges in his labor market integration seems to be the stronger predictor of the left-wing preference of second-generation.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Simone Moriconi","Giovanni Peri","Riccardo Turati"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103740","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ba89456e902bcb0e","title":"Olley and Pakes‐style Production Function Estimators with Firm Fixed Effects","abstract":"We show that control function estimators (CFEs) of the firm production function, such as Olley–Pakes, may be biased when productivity evolves with a firm‐specific intercept, in which case the correctly specified control function will contain a firm‐specific term, omitted in the standard CFEs. We develop an estimator that is free from this bias by introducing firm fixed effects in the control function. Applying our estimator to the data, we find that it outperforms the existing CFEs in terms of capturing persistent unobserved heterogeneity in firm productivity. Our estimator involves minimal modification to the standard CFE procedures and can be easily implemented using common statistical software.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Yoonseok Lee","Andrey Stoyanov","Nick Zubanov"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12259","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ba9f249a162c5d03","title":"Health insurance, endogenous medical progress, health expenditure growth, and welfare","abstract":"We study the impact of health insurance expansion on medical spending, longevity and welfare in an OLG economy in which individuals purchase health care to lower mortality and medical progress is profit-driven. Three sectors are considered: final goods production; a health care sector, selling medical services to individuals; and an R&D sector, selling increasingly effective medical technology to the health care sector. We calibrate the model to the development of the US economy/health care system from 1965 to 2005 and study numerically the impact of the insurance expansion. We find that more extensive health insurance accounts for a large share of the rise in US health spending but also boosts the rate of medical progress. A welfare analysis shows that while the subsidization of health care through health insurance creates excessive health care spending, the gains in life expectancy brought about by induced medical progress more than compensate for this.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Ivan Frankovic","Michael Kühn"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102717","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-baa333a58ac599ca","title":"Student Loans and Homeownership","abstract":"We estimate the effect of student loan debt on subsequent homeownership in a uniquely constructed administrative dataset for a nationally representative cohort. We instrument for the amount of individual student debt using changes to the in-state tuition rate at public 4-year colleges in the student's home state. A $1, 000 increase in student loan debt lowers the homeownership rate by about 1.5 percentage points for public 4-year college-goers during their mid 20s, equivalent to an average delay of 2.5 months in attaining homeownership. Validity tests suggest that the results are not confounded by local economic conditions or changes in educational outcomes.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Alvaro Mezza","Daniel Ringo","Shane M. Sherlund","Kamila Sommer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/704609","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-babea141f08e2d4a","title":"Do gender wage differences within households influence women's empowerment and welfare? Evidence from Ghana","abstract":"Using household data from the latest wave of the Ghana Living Standards Survey, this paper utilizes machine learning techniques – IV LASSO – that allows for the treatment of unconfoundedness in the selection of observables and unobservables to examine the structural effect of gender wage differences within households on women's empowerment and welfare in Ghana. The structural parameters of the IV LASSO estimations show that a reduction in household gender wage gap significantly enhances women's empowerment. Also, a decline in household gender wage gap results meaningfully in improving household and women's welfare. Particularly, the increasing effect on women's welfare resulting from decreases in household gender wage differences is much higher than for the household welfare. The findings showcase the need to vigorously adopt policies that both increase the quantity and quality of jobs for women and address gender barriers that inhibit women from accessing these jobs opportunities in sub-Saharan Africa.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Michael Danquah","Abdul Malik Iddrisu","Ernest Owusu Boakye","Solomon Owusu"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.06.014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bac2a197ac1384e2","title":"Welfare‐increasing third‐degree price discrimination","abstract":"When demand functions in different markets are derived from distributions of reservation prices that differ only in their means, conditions exist such that third‐degree price discrimination leads to greater total output and greater total welfare. Welfare is higher with discrimination than with a uniform price when demand functions are derived from logistic distributions with different means. Welfare and consumer surplus are higher with discrimination for demands derived from a distribution related to the Pareto. In general, whether discrimination increases total output depends on demand being more convex in markets in which prices fall with discrimination than in those in which prices rise.","wordCount":102,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Simon Cowan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12128","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bacb871dcee78f03","title":"Determinants of energy productivity in 39 countries: An empirical investigation","abstract":"This paper uses three types of analysis to investigate the drivers of energy productivity changes occurring in 39 countries during 1995–2009. We find that increases in sectoral energy productivity were the primary driver behind economy-wide energy productivity improvements. Structural economic shifts away from industry and towards service-oriented sectors played a lesser role in aggregate energy productivity improvements. Nations with similar demographic and economic characteristics showed similar levels of energy productivity and rates of improvement. Most notably, former communist countries and nations undergoing economic liberalization exhibited the highest rate of improvement—although they are still less energy productive than developed nations. Moreover, the econometric analysis reinforces the long-standing hypothesis that higher levels of income per capita and higher energy prices are associated with greater energy productivity, while a greater share of output from industry is associated with lower energy productivity levels. In particular, higher energy prices and income levels are associated with improvements in sectoral energy productivity.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Tarek Atalla","Patrick Bean"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bacc0e388ecce06b","title":"Risk aversion and the willingness to migrate in 30 transition countries","abstract":"This paper uses individual-level data covering 30 transition countries that account for over one-quarter of the worldwide immigrant stock to assess the impact of risk aversion on willingness to migrate. It extends the previous literature by allowing the effect of risk aversion to depend on the level of risk in the sending country. Consistent with theories of individual-level migration decisions, we find that risk aversion has a robust and statistically significant negative impact on willingness to migrate within countries as well as abroad. As predicted by theory, this impact is robustly less negative in riskier sending countries. Furthermore, this negative impact is significantly larger for willingness to migrate abroad than willingness to migrate internally. We also find that, even after controlling for an extensive set of control variables, willingness to migrate internally and abroad are highly correlated. This suggests that internal and international mobility decisions are closely linked.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Peter Huber","Klaus Nowotny"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00777-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-badc64fef0631041","title":"Effects of Copyrights on Science: Evidence from the WWII Book Republication Program","abstract":"Copyrights, which establish intellectual property in music, science, and other creative goods, are intended to encourage creativity. Yet, copyrights also raise the cost of accessing existing work—potentially discouraging future innovation. This paper uses an exogenous shift toward weak copyrights (and low access costs) during World War II to examine the potentially adverse effects of copyrights on science. Using two alternative identification strategies, we show that weaker copyrights encouraged the creation of follow-on science, measured by citations. This change is driven by a reduction in access costs, allowing scientists at less affluent institutions to use existing knowledge in new follow-on research.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Barbara Biasi","Petra Moser"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","A"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190113","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-badd24db2a13879b","title":"Group decision rules and group rationality under risk","abstract":"This paper investigates the rationality of group decisions versus individual decisions under risk. We study two group decision rules, majority and unanimity, in stochastic dominance and Allais paradox tasks. We distinguish communication effects (the effects of group discussions and interactions) from aggregation effects (mere impact of the voting procedure), which makes it possible to better understand the complex dynamics of group decision making. In an experiment, both effects occurred for intellective tasks whereas there were only aggregation effects in judgmental tasks. Communication effects always led to more rational choices; aggregation effects did so sometimes but not always. Groups violated stochastic dominance less often than individuals did, which was due to both aggregation and communication effects. In the Allais paradox tasks, there were almost no communication effects, and aggregation effects made groups deviate more from expected utility than individuals.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Han Bleichrodt","Ning Liu","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9237-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bae703ca87e245ce","title":"Predicting mid-life capital formation with pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation","abstract":"How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967-1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40's. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well-powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index's predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Daniel J. Benjamin","David Laibson","Walter Mischel","Philip K. Peake","Yuichi Shoda","Alexandra Wellsjo","Nicole L. Wilson"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.08.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bae8b133b0412973","title":"The validity of bootstrap testing for threshold autoregression","abstract":"We consider bootstrap-based testing for threshold effects in non-linear threshold autoregressive (TAR) models. It is well-known that classic tests based on asymptotic theory tend to be biased in case of small, or even moderate sample sizes, especially when the estimated parameters indicate non-stationarity, or in presence of heteroskedasticity, as often witnessed in the analysis of financial or climate data. To address the issue we propose a supremum Lagrange Multiplier test statistic (sLM), where the null hypothesis specifies a linear autoregressive (AR) model against the alternative of a TAR model. We consider both the classical recursive residual i.i.d. bootstrap (sLMi) and a wild bootstrap (sLMw), applied to the sLM statistic, and establish their validity under the null hypothesis. The framework is new, and requires the proof of non-standard results for bootstrap analysis in time series models; this includes a uniform bootstrap law of large numbers and a bootstrap functional central limit theorem. The Monte Carlo evidence shows that the bootstrap tests have correct empirical size even for small samples; the wild bootstrap version (sLMw) is also robust against the presence of heteroskedasticity. Moreover, there is no loss of empirical power when compared to the asymptotic test and the size of the tests is not affected if the order of the tested model is selected through AIC. Finally, we use our results to analyse the time series of the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. We find a significant threshold effect and an appropriate specification that manages to reproduce the main non-linear features of the series, such as the asymmetric seasonal cycle, the main periodicities, and the multimodality of the probability density function.","wordCount":270,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Simone Giannerini","Greta Goracci","Anders Rahbek"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.01.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-baf6f01b2fc189c2","title":"Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2023 shock","abstract":"We measure the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the euro area. A simple framework illustrating the numerous transmission channels of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our empirical exercise. By combining micro data and aggregate time series, we conclude that: (i) country-level average welfare costs – expressed as a share of triennial income – were sizable and heterogeneous: around 3% in France and Spain, 7% in Germany, and 9% in Italy; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the retirees losing up to 14%, and roughly half of the 25–44 year-old winning; (iii) losses were quite uniform across consumption quantiles because rigid rents served as a hedge for the poor; (iv) nominal net positions were the key driver of heterogeneity across-households; (v) the rise in energy prices generated vast variation in individual-level inflation rates, but unconventional fiscal policies helped shield households. The counterpart of this household-sector loss is a significant gain for the government.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Filippo Pallotti","Gonzalo Paz-Pardo","Jiří Slačálek","Oreste Tristani","Giovanni L. Violante"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103671","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-baf9899598548baf","title":"Malaria and Chinese economic activities in Africa","abstract":"We present novel evidence for the influence of malaria exposure on the geographic location of Chinese economic activities in Africa. The hypothesis is based on the observation that many Chinese aid projects and infrastructure contractors rely on Chinese personnel. High malaria exposure might constitute an important impediment to their employment and productivity. Combining data on Chinese aid and construction projects with geo-localized information about the presence of individuals from internet posts reveals a lower density of Chinese activities and of Chinese workers in areas with a high malaria exposure. This effect is mitigated partly through heterogeneity across sectors and immunity of the local population, through the selection of Chinese workers from regions in China with historically high malaria risk, and through the availability of malaria treatment.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Matteo Cervellati","Elena Esposito","Uwe Sunde","Song Yuan"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102739","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bb0093ff544df2a6","title":"What Happens to Workers at Firms that Automate?","abstract":"We estimate the impact of firm-level automation on individual worker outcomes by combining Dutch microdata with a direct measure of automation expenditures covering all private nonfinancial sector firms. Using a novel difference-in-differences event-study design leveraging lumpy investment, we find that automation increases the probability of incumbent workers separating from their employers. Workers experience a five-year cumulative wage income loss of 9% of one year’s earnings, driven by decreases in days worked. These adverse impacts of automation are larger in smaller firms, and for older and middle-educated workers. By contrast, no such losses are found for firms’ investments in computers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["James Bessen","Maarten Goos","Anna Salomons","Wiljan van den Berge"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01284","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-bb0b4293bcbbae13","title":"Bonus Culture: Competitive Pay, Screening, and Multitasking","abstract":"To analyze the impact of labor market competition on the structure of compensation, we embed multitasking and screening within a Hotelling framework. Competition for talent leads to an escalation of performance pay, shifting effort away from long-term investments, risk management, and cooperation. Efficiency losses can exceed those from a single principal, who dulls incentives to extract rents. As competition intensifies, monopsonistic underincentivization of low-skill agents first decreases and then gives way to growing overincentivization of high-skill ones. Aggregate welfare is thus hill-shaped, while inequality tends to rise monotonically. Bonus caps can help restore balance in incentives but may generate other distortions.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Roland Bénabou","Jean Tirole"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684853","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bb15d3a6acb3147e","title":"Costs and benefits of financial conglomerate affiliation: Evidence from hedge funds","abstract":"This paper explores how affiliation to financial conglomerates affects asset managers’ access to capital, risk taking, and performance. Focusing on a sample of hedge funds, we find that financial conglomerate-affiliated hedge funds (FCAHFs) have lower flow-performance sensitivity than other hedge funds and that this difference is particularly pronounced during financial turmoil. Arguably, thanks to more stable funding, FCAHFs allow their investors to redeem capital more freely and are able to capture price rebounds. Because investors could value these characteristics, our findings provide a rationale for why financial conglomerate affiliation is widespread, although it slightly hampers performance on average.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Francesco A. Franzoni","Mariassunta Giannetti"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.04.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bb1f456372235e3b","title":"Characterizing the Danish energy prosumer: Who buys solar PV systems and why do they buy them?","abstract":"Lower costs and stop-go policy around 2012 created two distinct groups of households with solar photovoltaics (PVs) in Denmark – a large group of early adopters (annually metered), and a smaller group of later adopters (hourly/real-time metered). This paper analyses these groups to characterize Danish PVs prosumer households and identify why they bought PVs. A comparison of a full population of 73,974 Danish household PVs owners (registered as of 2015) with other households shows that adopters tended to have higher incomes, be older, live in rural areas, have newer houses, and use individual heating (e.g. heat pumps). Moreover, the registered owners of PVs tended to be technically educated men. A 2018 survey of 2505 PVs owners indicates that later adopters were slightly more inspired by peers, whereas early adopters were more inspired by news articles and sales drives. Moreover, independence, financial gains, and displaying proenvironmental action are identified as motivations to adopt PVs. This paper concludes that technically educated men seem to dominate the decisionmaking process and that Danish energy prosumers seem to share (more or less) the same characteristics and motivations as PVs adopters in other contexts despite the distinct diffusion pattern in Denmark.","wordCount":195,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Anders Rhiger Hansen","Mette Hove Jacobsen","Kirsten Gram‐Hanssen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107333","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bb20bfce40de82f9","title":"Gender differences in response to big stakes","abstract":"It is commonly perceived that increasing incentives improves performance. However, the reaction to increased incentives might differ between men and women, leading to gender differences in performance. In a natural experiment, we study the gender difference in performance resulting from changes in stakes. We use detailed information on the performance of high-school students and exploit the variation in the stakes of tests, which range from 5% to 27% of the final grade. We find that female students outperform male students in all tests—but to a relatively larger degree when the stakes are low. The gender gap disappears in tests taken at the end of high school, which count for 50% of the university entry grade.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Ghazala Azmat","Caterina Calsamiglia","Nagore Iriberri"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12180","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bb254f34072cd670","title":"University Innovation and Local Economic Growth","abstract":"This paper identifies the extent to which knowledge from U.S. universities drives industry agglomeration. Establishment-level data indicate faster growth in employment, wages, and corporate innovation after the 1980 Bayh-Dole Act's shock to the spread of innovation from universities in industries more closely related to the nearby university's innovative strengths. Federal research funding amplified the effect. University knowledge spillovers strengthen with geographic proximity, density, and local skills. Consistent with spatial equilibrium models, the growth effect is driven by nearby entry in university-linked industries, especially of multiunit expansions; these firms disproportionately partner with universities in R&D, transfer IP, and innovate.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Naomi Hausman"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bb2cac759695c342","title":"How Wage Announcements Affect Job Search— A Field Experiment","abstract":"In a field experiment, we study how job seekers respond to posted wages by assigning wages randomly to pairs of otherwise similar vacancies in a large number of professions. Higher wages attract significantly more interest. Still, a nontrivial number of applicants only reveal an interest in the low-wage vacancy. With a complementary survey, we show that external raters perceive higher-wage jobs as more competitive. These findings qualitatively support core predictions of theories of directed/competitive search, though in the simplest calibrated model, applications react too strongly to the wage. We discuss extensions such as on-the-job search that rectify this.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Michèle Bélot","Philipp Kircher","Paul J. Müller"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200116","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-bb2cd03f839f3e06","title":"Responsible investing: The ESG-efficient frontier","abstract":"We propose a theory in which each stock's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score plays two roles: (1) providing information about firm fundamentals and (2) affecting investor preferences. The solution to the investor's portfolio problem is characterized by an ESG-efficient frontier, showing the highest attainable Sharpe ratio for each ESG level. The corresponding portfolios satisfy four-fund separation. Equilibrium asset prices are determined by an ESG-adjusted capital asset pricing model, showing when ESG raises or lowers the required return. Combining several large data sets, we compute the empirical ESG-efficient frontier and show the costs and benefits of responsible investing. Finally, we test our theory's predictions using proxies for E (carbon emissions), S, G, and overall ESG.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Lasse Heje Pedersen","Shaun Fitzgibbons","Łukasz Pomorski"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.11.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bb2d3e094ca84c7c","title":"2018 klein lecture: Individual and aggregate labor supply in heterogeneous agent economies with intensive and extensive margins","abstract":"We study business cycle fluctuations in heterogeneous agent general equilibrium models featuring intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. A nonlinear mapping from time devoted to work to labor services generates operative extensive and intensive margins. Our model captures the salient features of the empirical distribution of hours worked, including how individuals transit within this distribution. We study how various specifications influence labor supply responses to aggregate technology shocks and find that abstracting from intensive margin adjustment can have large effects on the volatility of aggregate hours even if fluctuations along the intensive margin are small.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Yongsung Chang","Sun‐Bin Kim","Kyooho Kwon","Richard Rogerson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12377","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bb75ecc7c4e8b2df","title":"How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis","abstract":"We examine the causal relationship between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption for 25 developed economies using both time series and panel data techniques for the period 1970–2014. Due to the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel (countries from Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania), we employ the cross-sectional augmented IPS test to ascertain unit root properties. The cointegration test results indicate the presence of a long-run association between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption. Long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated through the common correlated effects mean group estimator and the augmented mean group estimator. The empirical results reveal that, for most countries, globalization increases energy consumption. In the USA and UK, globalization is negatively correlated with energy consumption. The causality analysis indicates the presence of the globalization-driven energy consumption hypothesis. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using globalization as an economic tool to utilize energy efficiently for sustainable economic development in the long run.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Muhammad Shahbaz","Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad","Mantu Kumar Mahalik","Perry Sadorsky"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1366640","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bb7809f7d50a52ce","title":"Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations","abstract":"Climate policies to keep global warming below 2°C might render some of the world's fossil fuels and related infrastructure worthless prior to the end of their economic life time. Therefore, some energy-sector assets are at risk of becoming stranded. This paper investigates whether and how investors price in this risk of asset stranding. We exploit the gradual development of a German climate policy proposal aimed at reducing electricity production from coal and analyze its effect on the valuation of energy utilities. We find that investors take stranded asset risk into consideration, but that they also expect a financial compensation for their stranded assets.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Suphi Şen","Marie-Theres von Schickfus"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102277","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bb783bae41afc92c","title":"Multilevel public goods game: Levelling up, substitution and crowding-in effects","abstract":"In an online multilevel public goods experiment, we implement four treatments where we gradually increase the marginal per capita return of the global public good. First, we find evidence of an increase in the contribution to the global good (levelling-up effect). Secondly, subjects fund their higher contribution to the global good by reducing their contribution to the local good (substitution effect) rather than by increasing total contribution, i.e., the sum of their contributions to the local and the global good (marginal crowding-in effect). Moreover, we observe that total contribution increases as a consequence of the mere introduction of the global good (categorical crowding-in effect). Finally, we observe that subjects continue to contribute to both public goods even when they are dominated in terms of costs and returns.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Marco Catola","Simone D’Alessandro","Pietro Guarnieri","Veronica Pizziol"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102626","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bb8c3d37f274d5f8","title":"Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime","abstract":"This paper investigates the link between social media and hate crime. We show that antirefugee sentiment on Facebook predicts crimes against refugees in otherwise similar municipalities with higher social media usage. To establish causality, we exploit exogenous variation in the timing of major Facebook and internet outages. Consistent with a role for “echo chambers,” we find that right-wing social media posts contain narrower and more loaded content than news reports. Our results suggest that social media can act as a propagation mechanism for violent crimes by enabling the spread of extreme viewpoints.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Karsten Müller","Carlo Schwarz"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bb8d72ae056b1a0f","title":"Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments","abstract":"We elicit adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using purposefully collected data from rural Bangladesh. Alongside direct survey questions, we conduct list experiments to elicit true preferences for intimate partner violence and marriage before age 18. Responses to direct survey questions suggest that very few adolescent girls in the study accept the practises of intimate partner violence and child marriage (5% and 2%). However, our list experiments reveal significantly higher support for both intimate partner violence and child marriage (at 30% and 24%). We further investigate how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["M. Niaz Asadullah","Elisabetta De Cao","Fathema Zhura Khatoon","Zahra Siddique"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00805-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bb946a87bf519c5f","title":"Diagnosing Expertise: Human Capital, Decision Making, and Performance among Physicians","abstract":"Expert performance is often evaluated assuming that good experts have good outcomes. We examine expertise in medicine and develop a model that allows for two dimensions of physician performance: decision making and procedural skill. Better procedural skill increases the use of intensive procedures for everyone, while better decision making results in a reallocation of procedures from fewer low-risk to high-risk cases. We show that poor diagnosticians can be identified using administrative data and that improving decision making improves birth outcomes by reducing C-section rates at the bottom of the risk distribution and increasing them at the top of the distribution.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Janet Currie","W. Bentley MacLeod"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/687848","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bba1a00f88546d88","title":"Effectiveness of monitoring, managerial entrenchment, and corporate cash holdings","abstract":"We develop a dynamic model of a firm in which cash management is partially delegated to a self-interested manager. Shareholders trade off the cost of dismissing the manager with the cost of managerial discretion over the use of liquid funds. An improvement in corporate governance quality may have a positive or a negative effect on levels and values of cash balances, depending on the source of the improvement. While a reduction of managerial entrenchment results in lower cash balances and mostly higher marginal cash values, we demonstrate that the opposite is true when the monitoring of managerial actions becomes more effective. A managerial asset substitution problem produces a novel hump-shaped relation between the firm's liquidity levels and the collective propensity of shareholders and managers to reduce cash flow risk. We also discuss the firm's risk management strategies as well as derive implications of the presence of an investment opportunity, debt financing, and shareholder activism.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Panagiotis Couzoff","Shantanu Banerjee","Grzegorz Pawlina"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102258","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bba70af15c76ed09","title":"Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections","abstract":"This paper uses a data rich environment to produce direct econometric estimates of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty for 11 advanced nations. These indices exhibit significant independent variation from popular proxies and provide a refinement of the influential work of [Jurado et al., 2015] that results in improved real-time performance. We use this new data in combination with narrative evidence to jointly identify macro uncertainty and financial shocks. Macro uncertainty shocks are identified with close elections and financial shocks with financial stress during financial crises. We find that macro uncertainty shocks matter for the majority of countries and that the real effects of macro uncertainty shocks are generally larger conditioning on close elections. These results are robust to controlling for news shocks and global uncertainty as well as a variety of shocks considered to be important drivers of the business cycle.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Chris Redl"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103296","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bba83fed8bfd5f43","title":"Long‐term trends in economic inequality: the case of the Florentine state, <i>c</i>. 1300–1800","abstract":"This article provides an overview of economic inequality, particularly of wealth, in the Florentine state (Tuscany) from the early fourteenth to the late eighteenth century. Regional studies of this kind are rare, and this is only the second-ever attempt at covering such a long period. Consistent with recent research conducted on other European areas, during the early modern period we find clear indications of a tendency for economic inequality to grow continually, a finding that for Tuscany cannot be explained as the consequence of economic growth. Furthermore, the exceptionally old sources we use allow us to demonstrate that a phase of declining inequality, lasting about one century, was triggered by the Black Death from 1348 to 1349. This finding challenges earlier scholarship and significantly alters our understanding of the economic consequences of the Black Death.","wordCount":135,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Guido Alfani","Francesco Ammannati"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12471","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bbab8b6f6329e007","title":"The impact of chief diversity officers on diverse faculty hiring","abstract":"Racial diversity among faculty, students, and administrators is increasing at universities in the United States. These changes have been uneven, with growth in underrepresented students exceeding that of faculty diversity. To address these and other inequities, a growing number of universities have established an executive‐level chief diversity officer (CDO). Our study offers a first empirical examination of this effort at selected 4‐year U.S. universities from 2001 to 2019 using unique data on the initial hiring date of a CDO and publicly available demographic data. We provide a comprehensive overview of demographic trends within our data and find confidence intervals around the estimated instantaneous average treatment effect for an executive‐level CDO on diverse hiring tightly contain zero. Estimated treatment effects are small and lack statistical significance within 4 years of a CDO position being established. We discuss other possible factors that explain trends toward higher diversity on campus and several possible constraints.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Steven W. Bradley","James R. Garven","Wilson Law","James E. West"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12584","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bbac051e05618bee","title":"The effect of subway policies on gasoline consumption: Subway expansion versus fare changes","abstract":"Investments in urban light rail are meant to replace driving and alleviate emissions from road transportation, but little research has documented the direct link between alternative subway policies and gasoline consumption, leaving it unclear which subway policies are more efficient. Based on a unique dataset from a major gasoline retailer in China, this paper compares the effect of expanding the subway network with that of revising the fare. We find that both subway expansion and the fare change significantly impact gasoline consumption in the short run, but the effect of expanding the subway network is larger and more durable. A cost–benefit calculation also finds that subway network expansion is more cost-effective in reducing driving than changing the fare.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Antung Anthony Liu","Yucheng Wang","Lei Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103795","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bbaf474e38d9dd22","title":"Bad bankers no more? Truth-telling and (dis)honesty in the finance industry","abstract":"Worries about unethical behavior are a recurring issue in the finance industry, which has inspired a number of recent studies. We contribute to this ongoing discussion by investigating preferences for truthfulness within the finance industry in a controlled experiment with 415 financial professionals (and 270 students as a control group). Participants have to report one of two numbers, of which one is true, the other false, where truth-telling is costly. In three main treatments we vary the situational context of subjects’ decisions (abstract, neutral, finance context) by applying differently framed instructions. We find that contexts matter for financial professionals: they act more honestly in a financial context and a neutral context than in an abstract situation, while for a control group we find no such differences. Further variations on the financial decision situation do not affect financial professionals’ honesty.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Christoph Huber","Jürgen Huber"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.10.020","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bbb78694953daf42","title":"E-governance, Accountability, and Leakage in Public Programs: Experimental Evidence from a Financial Management Reform in India","abstract":"Can e-governance reforms improve government policy? By making information available on a real-time basis, information technologies may reduce the theft of public funds. We analyze a large field experiment and the nationwide scale-up of a reform to India’s workfare program. Advance payments were replaced by “ just-in-time” payments, triggered by e-invoicing, making it easier to detect misreporting. Leakages went down: program expenditures dropped by 24 percent, while employment slightly increased; there were fewer fake households in the official database; and program officials’ personal wealth fell by 10 percent. However, payment delays increased. The nationwide scale-up resulted in a persistent 19 percent reduction in program expenditure.","wordCount":105,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Abhijit Banerjee","Esther Duflo","Clément Imbert","Santhosh Mathew","Rohini Pande"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180302","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bbd6c107746cc596","title":"Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: Sweden as a Case Study","abstract":"This quasi-experimental study is the first to find a significant causal effect of carbon taxes on emissions, empirically analyzing the implementation of a carbon tax and a value-added tax on transport fuel in Sweden. After implementation, carbon dioxide emissions from transport declined almost 11 percent, with the largest share due to the carbon tax alone, relative to a synthetic control unit constructed from a comparable group of OECD countries. Furthermore, the carbon tax elasticity of demand for gasoline is three times larger than the price elasticity. Policy evaluations of carbon taxes, using price elasticities to simulate emission reductions, may thus significantly underestimate their true effect.","wordCount":105,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Julius Andersson"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170144","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bbe5b411db63e03c","title":"Phasing Out Mercury? Ecological Economics and Indonesia's Small-Scale Gold Mining Sector","abstract":"This article uses an ecological economics approach to analyse tensions surrounding efforts to phase out mercury in Indonesia's artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector, among the largest sources of mercury pollution worldwide. Many scholars and environmental activists have long hoped that global restrictions in mercury trade would drive up mercury prices and decrease mercury use and pollution in ASGM. However, in Indonesia, despite global mercury trade restrictions, recent increases in domestic mercury supplies through new cinnabar mining developments have made mercury less expensive and more available, destabilizing efforts at reducing mercury use. This article discusses implications of domestic cinnabar mining for controlling mercury in Indonesia's ASGM sector, highlighting obstacles to implementing the Minamata Convention, a treaty that aims to restrict mercury use. We link discussion of mercury mining to other socioeconomic processes, labour relations and power dynamics shaping mercury use in gold mining and hindering collectivised mercury-free technology uptake. Examining new evidence regarding the social metabolism of a changing extractive economy, we underscore why an integrated ecological economics paradigm – carefully grounding analysis in the context of local labour situations – is needed to challenge assumptions and inform new strategies for mercury reduction/elimination in ASGM.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Samuel J. Spiegel","Sumali Agrawal","Dino Mikha","Kartie Vitamerry","Philippe Le Billon","Marcello M. Veiga","Kulansi Konolius","Bardolf Paul"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.025","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bbecb404ec61c884","title":"Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks as Shock Absorbers in the First Era of Globalization","abstract":"The Classical Gold Standard period, with high capital mobility and fixed-exchange rates, is usually seen as the extreme case of international constraints on monetary policy. Contrary to this view, we show how central bank balance sheets offset the effects of international shocks on domestic interest rates. In contrast, in the United States, a gold standard country without a central bank, the reaction of money market rates was two to four times stronger than that of interest rates in countries with a central bank. Our study is based on the monthly balance sheets of all central banks in the world (i.e., 21) from 1891–1913.","wordCount":103,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Guillaume Bazot","Éric Monnet","Matthias Morys"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000274","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bbfd7f4401ef2547","title":"Capital‐ and labor‐saving technical change in an aging economy","abstract":"Does population aging and the associated increase in the old‐age dependency ratio affect economic growth? The answer is given in a novel analytical framework that allows for population aging to affect endogenous capital‐ and labor‐saving technical change. In a steady state capital‐saving technical progress vanishes, and the economy's growth rate of per‐capita variables reflects only labor‐saving technical change. The mere possibility of capital‐saving technical change is shown to imply that the economy's steady‐state growth rate becomes independent of its age structure: Neither a higher life expectancy nor a decline in fertility affects economic growth in the long run.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Andreas Irmen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12216","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bbfe0fdda557bdd7","title":"Plague and long‐term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities","abstract":"This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long‐term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629–30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c . 1575–1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629–30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long‐lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth‐century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.","wordCount":114,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Guido Alfani","Marco Percoco"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12652","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc010126311d4993","title":"Performance measurement of crypto funds","abstract":"Crypto funds (CFs) are a growing intermediary in cryptocurrency markets. We evaluate CF performance using metrics based on alphas, value at risk, lower partial moments, and maximum drawdown. The performance of actively managed CFs is heterogeneous: While the average fund in our sample does not outperform the overall cryptocurrency market, there seem to be some few funds with superior skills. Given the non-normal nature of fund returns, the choice of the performance measure affects the rank orders of funds. Compared to the Sharpe ratio, the most commonly applied metric in the asset management practice, performance measures based on alphas and maximum drawdown lead to diverging fund rankings. Depending on their ranking order of preferences, CF investors should consider a bundle of metrics for fund selection and performance measurement.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Niclas Dombrowski","Wolfgang Drobetz","Paul P. Momtaz"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111118","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bc1992ea8eca8ac4","title":"The legacy of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration","abstract":"Does the politico–economic system affect preferences for immigration? In this study, I show that individuals exposed to life under state socialism have formed and persistently hold different attitudes toward immigration. By exploiting the division and reunification of Germany, I estimate the influence of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration. Drawing on rich individual panel data, I find that East Germans who lived under state socialism, are 15 percent more likely to oppose immigration than West Germans who spent their entire life in a democratic, capitalist country. This difference in attitudes toward immigration is persistent over time and across space, and largest for cohorts born and raised under state socialism. This gap in attitudes can be traced back to a longer-term deterioration in trust. Evidence from members of a group that opposed the authoritarian system highlights the importance of state socialist ideology for attitude formation.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Martin Lange"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2020.12.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bc24aad012152539","title":"Social Protection, Food Security, and Asset Formation","abstract":"The last two decades have seen a rapid rise in social protection programs and studies that assess their impacts on a large number of domains. We construct a new database of studies of these programs that report impacts on food security outcomes and asset formation. Our meta-analysis finds that social protection programs improve both the quantity and quality of food consumed by beneficiaries. The magnitudes of these effect sizes are meaningful. The average social protection program increases the value of food consumed/expenditure by 13% and caloric acquisition by 8%. Food expenditure rises faster than caloric acquisition because households use transfers to improve the quality of their diet, most notably increasing their consumption of calories from animal source foods. Since the consumption of animal source foods in these populations is low, and because there are significant nutritional benefits to increasing the consumption of these, this is a positive outcome. Our meta-analysis also finds that social protection programs lead to increased asset holdings as measured by livestock, non-farm productive assets, farm productive assets, and savings. There is no impact on land holdings though the number of studies that assess these is small.","wordCount":190,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Mélissa Hidrobo","John Hoddinott","Neha Kumar","Meghan Olivier"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.08.014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bc2b36ba78dac0df","title":"Obviously strategy‐proof implementation of top trading cycles","abstract":"Although there is a rich theoretical literature extolling the virtues of the top trading cycles (TTCs) mechanism, it is rarely used in practice. Anecdotal evidence suggests that one possible explanation is that TTC is difficult for participants to understand. This article formalizes this intuition by asking whether it is possible to implement TTC in an obviously strategy‐proof (OSP) way. I identify an acyclicity condition that is both necessary and sufficient for OSP implementation of TTC. The condition is unlikely to hold in most applications, which may explain why TTC is rarely used, despite its many appealing theoretical properties.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Peter Troyan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12384","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc33caecc222e3e0","title":"A general solution method for moral hazard problems","abstract":"Principal-agent models are pervasive in theoretical and applied economics, but their analysis has largely been limited to the ``first-order approach'' (FOA) where incentive compatibility is replaced by a first-order condition. This paper presents a new approach to solving a wide class of principal-agent problems that satisfy the monotone likelihood ratio property but may fail to meet the requirements of the FOA. Our approach solves the problem via tackling a max-min-max formulation over agent actions, alternate best responses by the agent, and contracts.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Rongzhu Ke","Christopher Ryan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2167","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-bc35b95a5691e40e","title":"Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide","abstract":"An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower GDP growth and higher unemployment in the medium run for an unbalanced panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Low mortgage spreads are associated with an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth, highlighting the importance of credit supply shocks. Economic forecasters systematically over-predict GDP growth at the end of household debt booms, suggesting an important role of flawed expectations formation. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and subsequent output growth is stronger for countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes. We also uncover a global household debt cycle that partly predicts the severity of the global growth slowdown after 2007. Countries with a household debt cycle more correlated with the global household debt cycle experience a sharper decline in growth after an increase in domestic household debt.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Atif Mian","Amir Sufi","Emil Verner"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc3d15bf079c5e2c","title":"Difficulties in finding middle-skilled jobs under increased automation","abstract":"This study investigates the labor market under increased automation of middle-skilled jobs wherein worker suitability for these jobs is considered. We examine two effects of increased automation on workers. The first effect is the possibility of replacement of middle-skilled workers by machines. The second effect is the diversity in job mismatch probabilities of workers. If machines perform a worker’s suitable jobs more (or less) than the worker’s unsuitable jobs, then the worker’s job mismatch probability rises (or declines). Because workers who have larger job mismatch probabilities remain job seekers, it is more difficult for a firm to find a suitable worker. Due to these two effects, underemployment rises.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Hideki Nakamura"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000177","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc4ba31abf316e7b","title":"The gender gap in mental well-being at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from the UK","abstract":"We assess the decline in mental health after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK. This decline was more than twice as large for women as for men. We seek to explain this gender gap by exploring gender differences in: family and caring responsibilities; financial and work situation; social engagement; health situation, and health behaviours, including exercise. We assess their quantitative relevance by applying standard decomposition methods. We find that compositional differences in family and caring responsibilities explain part of the gender gap, but more important are gender differences in social factors, particularly changes in loneliness. We explore this result further by analysing gender differences in personality traits. Even after controlling for all factors there remains a noticeable age-gender gradient, with young females suffering particularly badly.","wordCount":128,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Ben Etheridge","Lisa Spantig"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104114","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bc4dda2dd9b2fcd7","title":"Economic sanctions and informal employment","abstract":"This paper examines how economic sanctions affect the allocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse the case of the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 and focus on the manufacturing sector. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we compare the probability of being employed in the informal sector before and after 2012 for workers in industries with different pre-existing exposure to international trade. Our analysis reveals that, following the sanctions, workers in industries with higher trade exposure are significantly more likely to experience informal employment compared to workers in industries with lower trade exposure. These results remain robust when accounting for potential sorting issues by using an instrumental variable approach. Our findings shed light on an important margin of labour market adjustment through which sanctions can affect the economy of the target country.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi","Roberto Nisticò"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102581","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bc555ea1b3da085e","title":"Turning a ‘Blind Eye’? Compliance with Minimum Wage Standards and Employment","abstract":"Turning a ‘blind eye’ to non‐compliance with minimum wage standards is sometimes presented as a pragmatic way to accommodate higher wages while not harming employment opportunities for workers employed in marginal firms. In this paper, we model firms' wage and employment decisions, and show that there may be a trade‐off between non‐compliance and employment. The main predictions of the model are tested empirically using data from the Italian labour force survey. We find evidence of a positive employment non‐compliance effect, though elasticities are smaller than typically thought as employers internalize the expected costs of non‐compliance. We also show that employment effects are larger at low levels of non‐compliance (when the risk of being referred to court is very low). The implications for policy and the role of regulators in monitoring and sanctioning non‐compliance are discussed.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Andrea Garnero","Claudio Lucifora"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12421","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc5e10216164f096","title":"Gendered university major choice: the role of intergenerational transmission","abstract":"In this paper, I study the role of gender-typical parental occupation for young adults’ gender-typical university major choice using data on a recent cohort of university students in Germany. Results show significant intergenerational associations between the gender typicality in parental occupation and young adults’ majors. As to why these effects occur, findings suggest that the transfer of occupation-specific resources from parents to their children plays an important role and that a transmission of gender roles explains at least some of the father-son associations. The paper contributes to existing literature by introducing a novel measure that operationalises the extent to which majors and occupations are ‘typically female’ or ‘typically male’ and by studying different transmission channels.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Julia Philipp"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00900-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bc647b5856490b90","title":"Experimental Evidence on the Economics of Rural Electrification","abstract":"We present results from an experiment that randomized the expansion of electric grid infrastructure in rural Kenya. Electricity distribution is a canonical example of a natural monopoly. Experimental variation in the number of connections, combined with administrative cost data, reveals considerable scale economies, as hypothesized. Randomized price offers indicate that demand for connections falls sharply with price. Among newly connected households, average electricity consumption is very low, implying low consumer surplus. We do not find meaningful medium-run impacts on economic and noneconomic outcomes. We discuss implications for current efforts to increase rural electrification in Kenya and highlight how various factors may affect interpretation.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Kenneth Lee","Edward Miguel","Catherine Wolfram"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705417","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc65a3e0f407c008","title":"Nonrandom Exposure to Exogenous Shocks","abstract":"We develop a new approach to estimating the causal effects of treatments or instruments that combine multiple sources of variation according to a known formula. Examples include treatments capturing spillovers in social or transportation networks and simulated instruments for policy eligibility. We show how exogenous shocks to some, but not all, determinants of such variables can be leveraged while avoiding omitted variables bias. Our solution involves specifying counterfactual shocks that may as well have been realized and adjusting for a summary measure of non-randomness in shock exposure: the average treatment (or instrument) across shock counterfactuals. We use this approach to address bias when estimating employment effects of market access growth from Chinese high-speed rail construction.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Kirill Borusyak","Peter Hull"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta19367","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc704b9f0ec01ba2","title":"Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients","abstract":"Using high‐quality nationwide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that machine learning algorithms can significantly improve predictive accuracy compared to simpler heuristic models or early warning systems currently in use. Specifically, the former predicts the proportion of time individuals are on income support in the subsequent 4 years with greater accuracy, by a magnitude of at least 22% (14 percentage points increase in the R‐squared), compared to the latter. This gain can be achieved at no extra cost to practitioners since the algorithms use administrative data currently available to caseworkers. Consequently, our machine learning algorithms can improve the detection of long‐term income support recipients, which can potentially enable governments and institutions to offer timely support to these at‐risk individuals.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Dario Sansone","Anna Zhu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12550","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bc81675aa14a3ae9","title":"Optimal banking with delegated monitoring","abstract":"We propose a model of financial intermediation based on delegated monitoring, where firms' returns are private information that lenders can ascertain through costly state verification. Our model has two key features: lenders cannot commit to their verification strategies and there are aggregate shocks. Simple debt contracts are Pareto optimal with or without intermediation. We show that the benefits of intermediation can be limited by financial instability in the presence of aggregate shocks. However, a well-designed resolution mechanism ensures the Pareto optimality of financial intermediation, and a bail-out policy can restore financial stability.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Nemanja Antic","Tai‐Wei Hu"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105904","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bc85395d1647e0bc","title":"Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence From India","abstract":"We show that foreign capital liberalization reduces capital misallocation and increases aggregate productivity for affected industries in India. The staggered liberalization of access to foreign capital across disaggregated industries allows us to identify changes in firms' input wedges, overcoming major challenges in the measurement of the effects of changing misallocation. Liberalization increases capital overall. For domestic firms with initially high marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK), liberalization increases revenues by 23%, physical capital by 53%, wage bills by 28%, and reduces MRPK by 33% relative to low MRPK firms. The effects of liberalization are largest in areas with less developed local banking sectors, indicating that inefficiencies in that sector may cause misallocation. Finally, we propose an assumption under which a novel method exploiting natural experiments can be used to bound the effect of changes in misallocation on treated industries' aggregate productivity. These industries' Solow residual increases by 3–16%.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Natalie Bau","Adrien Matray"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta19039","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc8a51ef4d82a3fc","title":"Labor-Force Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: The Importance of Skilled Labor","abstract":"Previous studies have identified a negative relation between firms’ hiring rates and future stock returns in the cross-section. We document that this relation is significantly steeper in industries that rely relatively more on high-skill workers than low-skill workers. A long-short portfolio sorted on firm-level hiring rate earns an average annual return of 8.6% in high-skill industries, and only 0.9% in low-skill industries. Moreover, this pattern is not explained by the standard CAPM. These findings are consistent with a neoclassical model with labor force heterogeneity and labor market frictions if it is more costly to replace high-skill than low-skill workers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Frederico Belo","Jun Li","Xiaoji Lin","Xiaofei Zhao"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx070","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc8bb4adb912fcfd","title":"Finance and Green Growth","abstract":"We study how countries’ financial structure affects their transition to low-carbon growth. Using global industry-level data, we document that carbon-intensive industries reduce emissions faster in economies with deeper stock markets. The main channel underpinning this stylised fact is that stock markets facilitate green innovation in carbon-intensive sectors, resulting in lower carbon emissions per unit of output. More tentative evidence indicates that stock markets also help to reallocate investment towards more energy-efficient sectors. Cross-border spillovers are limited: less than 5% of these industry-level reductions in domestic emissions are offset by carbon embedded in imports. A firm-level analysis of an exogenous shock to the cost of equity in Belgium confirms our findings.","wordCount":110,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Ralph De Haas","Alexander Popov"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac081","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc91847d026a811f","title":"Markov Switching Oil Price Uncertainty","abstract":"We investigate whether the United States economy responds negatively to oil price uncertainty and whether oil price shocks exert asymmetric effects on economic activity. In doing so, we relax the assumption in the existing literature that the data are governed by a single process, modifying the Elder and Serletis (2010) bivariate structural GARCH‐in‐Mean VAR to accommodate Markov regime switching in order to account for changing oil price dynamics over the sample period. We find evidence of asymmetries, against those macroeconomic theories that predict symmetries in the relationship between real aggregate economic activity and the real price of oil.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Apostolos Serletis","Libo Xu"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12300","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc91ca18e8646716","title":"Bombs, Brains, and Science: The Role of Human and Physical Capital for the Creation of Scientific Knowledge","abstract":"I examine the role of human and physical capital for the creation of scientific knowledge. I address the endogeneity of human and physical capital with two exogenous shocks: the dismissal of scientists in Nazi Germany and World War II bombings. A 10% shock to human capital reduced output by 0.2 SD in the short run, and the reduction persisted in the long run. A 10% shock to physical capital reduced output by 0.05 SD in the short run, and the reduction did not persist. The dismissal of star scientists caused much larger reductions in output because they are key for attracting other successful scientists.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Fabian Waldinger"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"A","allJels":["A","N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"General Economics / A","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00565","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bc955090b217b629","title":"The Missing Profits of Nations","abstract":"By exploiting new macroeconomic data known as foreign affiliates statistics, we show that affiliates of foreign multinational firms are an order of magnitude more profitable than local firms in a number of low-tax countries. Leveraging this differential profitability, we estimate that 36$\\%$ of multinational profits are shifted to tax havens globally. US multinationals shift twice as much profit as other multinationals relative to the size of their foreign earnings. We analyse how the location of corporate profits would change if shifted profits were reallocated to their source countries. Domestic profits would increase by about 20$\\%$ in high-tax European Union countries, 10$\\%$ in the US, and 5$\\%$ in developing countries, while they would fall by 55$\\%$ in tax havens. We provide a new international database of GDP, trade balances, and factor shares corrected for profit shifting. In contrast to the picture painted by official statistics, our results suggest that the corporate capital share has increased not only in North America but also in high-tax European countries. Capital is making a comeback globally, but its rise is obscured by the tax avoidance strategies of multinational companies.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Thomas Tørsløv","Ludvig Wier","Gabriel Zucman"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac049","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bca5a71d10fa848a","title":"Political connections of independent directors and earnings quality: The case of French firms","abstract":"The results of this study provide new understanding of how corporate governance mechanisms interact with firms’ political connections to affect the financial reporting quality. This paper examines the impact of political connections of independent board directors on earnings quality. We used two proxies of earnings quality, namely, discretionary accruals and real earnings management. Based on a sample of 1,936 firm-year observations from 2012 to 2022, our results reveal that firms with politically connected independent directors are more likely to display lower earnings quality in higher discretionary accruals and greater real activities manipulation. These results suggest that the monitoring role of independent directors in constraining earnings management practices, as emphasized by the agency theory, may be compromised by political connections.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Badreddine Hamdi"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111996","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bcafa7f56e10c150","title":"Infant Health, Women's Fertility, and Rural Electrification in the United States, 1930–1960","abstract":"From 1930 to 1960 rural communities, mainly in the U.S. South and Southwest, gained access to electricity. In addition to lights, the benefits included easier clothes washing, refrigeration, and pumped water. This article uses differences in the timing of electricity access across rural counties to study the effects on infant mortality and fertility. Rural electrification led to substantial reductions in infant mortality but had little effect on women's fertility. The increase in electricity access between 1930 and 1960 can account for 15 to 19 percent of the decline in rural infant mortality during this period.","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Joshua Lewis"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bcb28e8d2a7d9dc5","title":"Fairness and externalities","abstract":"We study equitable allocation of indivisible goods and money among agents with other-regarding preferences. First, we argue that Foley's (1967) equity test, i.e., the requirement that no agent prefers the allocation obtained by swapping her consumption with another agent, is suitable for our environment. Then we establish the existence of allocations passing this test for a general domain of preferences that accommodates prominent other-regarding preferences. Our results are relevant for equitable allocation among inequity-averse agents and in a domain with linear externalities that we introduce. Finally, we present conditions guaranteeing that these allocations are efficient.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Rodrigo A. Velez"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1651","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-bcb49bdeb602066f","title":"The Long-Term Effect of Demographic Shocks on the Evolution of Gender Roles: Evidence from the transatlantic Slave Trade","abstract":"Can demographic shocks affect the long-run evolution of female labor force participation and gender norms? This paper traces current variation in women’s participation in the labor force within Sub-Saharan Africa to the emergence of a female-biased sex ratio during the centuries of the transatlantic slave trade. This historical shock affected the division of labor along gender lines in the remaining African population, as women substituted for the missing men by taking up areas of work that were traditionally male tasks. By exploiting variation in the degree to which different ethnic groups were affected by the transatlantic slave trade, I show that women whose ancestors were more exposed to this shock are today more likely to be in the labor force, have lower levels of fertility, and are more likely to participate in household decisions. The marriage market and the cultural transmission of internal norms across generations represent important mechanisms explaining this long-run persistence.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Edoardo Teso"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy010","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bcc6ee9089b63e59","title":"The effect of uncertainty on stock market volatility and correlation","abstract":"In this study, we use an extension of the heterogeneous autoregressive model to investigate the influence of time-varying risk aversion and macroeconomic, financial, and economic policy uncertainty measures on stock market volatility and correlation. Based on the findings, there is a stronger predictive ability of these variables at the monthly frequency than at the daily frequency. We also highlight the importance of risk aversion, which, alongside fundamental factors, reflects investor sentiment in predicting stock market volatility. Meanwhile, although uncertainty variables, such as economic uncertainty and financial uncertainty, are important, the widely used variable, economic policy uncertainty, is not helpful for predicting stock market volatility. Moreover, there is evidence of higher economic value and reduced portfolio risk when including risk aversion and economic uncertainty in international portfolio analysis.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Hossein Asgharian","Charlotte Christiansen","Ai Jun Hou"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106929","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bcd8ead7e1f65630","title":"Construction and analysis of uncertainty indices based on multilingual text representations","abstract":"The work by Baker et al. (2016), who propose a dictionary based method and estimate the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on the occurrence of specific terms in ten leading newspapers in the USA, is among the first ones to detect the potential of text data in economic research. Following this line of research, this paper proposes automated approaches to construction of EPU indices for different countries based on newspapers’ texts. Multilingual fastText word embeddings, (S)BERT embeddings, and a novel multilingual topic modeling approach are used to construct EPU indices for Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. It is shown that constructed EPU indices based on multilingual word embeddings are Granger causal to the economic activity in all of the considered countries.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Viktoriia Naboka‐Krell"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111653","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bcdb83b9702ebfaf","title":"Immigration and the Canadian Earnings Distribution in the First Half of the Twentieth Century","abstract":"We use newly available micro-data from the 1911 to 1941 Canadian Censuses to investigate the impact of immigration on the Canadian earnings distribution in the first half of the twentieth century. We show that Canadian inequality rose sharply in the inter-war years, particularly in the 1920s, coinciding with two of the largest immigration decades in Canadian history. We find that immigration was not the main force driving changes in the earnings distribution. This results from a combination of self-selection by immigrants, occupational adjustments after arrival, and general equilibrium adjustments in the economy.","wordCount":92,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Alan G. Green","David A. Green"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000541","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bcea132d061e6ad9","title":"Firm-government social exchange: Are venture firms more charitable after receiving government subsidy?","abstract":"Research has suggested that firms in emerging economies often engage in philanthropy to secure political legitimacy. A natural follow-up question is whether a firm becomes less charitable after it gains political legitimacy. We draw on the social exchange perspective to posit that firms gaining greater political legitimacy, as indicated by the amount of government subsidy they received, tend to donate more to pay back the favour. In addition, this effect becomes stronger when the leadership in either the firms or local government changes, but such positive moderation effects become weaker when the leadership in both parties changes in the same year. Analysing a sample of venture firms publicly listed on China’s Growth Enterprises Market board from 2009 to 2017, we found support for the ideas.","wordCount":125,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Wei Liu","W. Li","Jing Yu Yang","Liang Wen"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102685","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bcee46a6aaba3371","title":"Interviewing in two‐sided matching markets","abstract":"We introduce the interview assignment problem , which generalizes classic one‐to‐one matching models by introducing a stage of costly information acquisition. Firms learn preferences over workers via costly interviews. Even if all firms and workers conduct the same number of interviews, realized unemployment depends also on the extent to which agents share common interviewing partners. We introduce the concept of overlap that captures this notion and prove that unemployment is minimized with perfect overlap : that is, if two firms interview any common worker, they interview the exact same set of workers.","wordCount":92,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Robin S. Lee","Michael Schwarz"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12193","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bcf3b39a863ae244","title":"Environmental Policies and directed technological change","abstract":"This article evaluates if and to which extent policy can steer innovation towards eco-friendly technologies. We construct a cross-country dataset on sectoral green innovation and complement it with data on policies designed to address environmental market failures: environmental taxes, regulation, and R&D subsidies. While all of these tools exert a positive effect on green innovation, our IV estimates reveal substantial heterogeneities across policies. Overall, green innovation reacts most strongly to R&D subsidies for renewables, but interaction effects between different policies need to be considered.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Klaus Gugler","Florian Szücs","Thomas Wiedenhofer"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102916","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bcf4a06d61637157","title":"Run-up to a Merger: Pre-Consolidation Pricing by Merging Airlines and Their Rivals","abstract":"The United States airline industry underwent considerable consolidation in a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 due to four domestic airline mergers. This paper analyzes the pricing behavior of rival airlines as well as the merging carriers post-approval but pre-actual integration of operations. Unlike other merger studies that present pre- and post-consolidation results when examining the long-run impact of mergers, this paper focuses on the post-approval period but before the actual consolidation has occurred, so as to determine how rival firms prepare for the consolidation that is entailed by an airline merger: Our analysis tracks the pricing behavior of rival airlines throughout the merger process: beginning with initial merger discussion to the merger announcement to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) approval and subsequent periods. We glean three takeaways from examining recent airline mergers: First, pricing decisions of rival carriers typically mimic the pricing decisions of the merging carriers. Second, the link between mergers and rival pricing varies for each merger; there is no clear relationship that we detect between mergers and price changes by rival airlines as the likelihood of the merger increases. Third, mergers that create a new potential competitor -- as in the case of the Southwest-AirTran merger—are associated with lower prices by rival carriers.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Qingxin He","Nicholas G. Rupp"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10033-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bcf5cb305fa9793e","title":"In the eye of the promoter? How faculty ratings of attractiveness matter for junior academic careers","abstract":"We investigate whether junior researchers’ attractiveness matters for obtaining an academic job post-PhD in a specific field within the social sciences, using faculty ratings on photographs along with data on publications, quality of PhD-granting university and employment type. The use of faculty ratings rather than external rating platforms allows for a closer match to a real-life academic setting. We find a significant association between faculty-perceived attractiveness and the probability of junior female researchers being in academic positions. A one standard deviation increase in the faculty attractiveness rating is associated with an increase in female junior researchers’ academic job holding by 25 % of the mean. This association is equally strong for the full sample of females and a seasoned subsample of females, observed at least 5 years post-PhD. We show that faculty ratings are different from general perceptions, the latter being irrelevant for junior researchers’ academic job holding. We also find that research productivity or access to high-quality coauthorship networks cannot explain the association. Collegiality, inferred using facial action coding of the photographs, is associated with the probability of females being in academia, but does not alter the association between faculty perceived attractiveness and females’ chances of an academic job post-PhD.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Haneen Alkusari","Nabanita Datta Gupta","Nancy L. Etcoff"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.02.033","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bcf9d4ef3f0cb946","title":"Men are from Mars, and Women Too: A Bayesian Meta‐analysis of Overconfidence Experiments","abstract":"Gender differences in self‐confidence could explain women's under‐representation in high‐income occupations and glass‐ceiling effects. We draw lessons from the economic literature via a survey of experts and a Bayesian hierarchical model that aggregates experimental findings over the last 20 years. The experts’ survey indicates beliefs that men are overconfident and women underconfident. Yet the literature reveals that both men and women are typically overconfident. Moreover, the model cannot reject the hypothesis that gender differences in self‐confidence are equal to zero. In addition, the estimated pooling factor is low, implying that each study contains little information over a common phenomenon. The discordance can be reconciled if the experts overestimate the pooling factor or have priors that are biased and precise.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Oriana Bandiera","Nidhi Parekh","Bárbara Petrongolo","Michelle Rao"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12407","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-bcfc1670765f2d03","title":"The Impact of College Diversity on Behavior toward Minorities","abstract":"This paper estimates the impact of racially diverse peers on white males’ subsequent behavior toward minorities. To overcome selection bias, we exploit data from the US Air Force Academy where students are randomly assigned to autonomous peer groups. A randomly assigned increase in freshman black peer ability causes white men to more frequently choose a black roommate in their sophomore year, after reassignment to a new peer group with a different set of black peers. We also find increased exposure to black students from the middle and top of the high school performance distribution, but not the bottom, increases future interactions.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Scott Carrell","Mark Hoekstra","James E. West"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170069","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bcfc91450339a97c","title":"International environmental agreements and imperfect enforcement: Evidence from CITES","abstract":"International environmental agreements address global environmental problems such as the decline in biodiversity. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) regulates international trade in wildlife to prevent its decline. Discussions about CITES’ effectiveness abound, but evidence is lacking. We combine the largest available panel database on wildlife populations with the history of countries’ membership and species’ protection under CITES. We find that after more than 20 years of a species’ inclusion into CITES, wildlife populations increase by about 66% in countries with thorough enforcement, irrespective of whether trade in the species is only restricted or completely banned under CITES. Our results suggest re-focusing discussions away from whether CITES should partially restrict trade or impose a complete trade ban, and towards better enforcement. More generally, we find that enforcement is crucial for effective international environmental agreements.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Benedikt Heid","Laura Márquez‐Ramos"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102784","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bd0ea9b9e5815bdb","title":"Revising growth history: new estimates of GDP for Norway, 1816–2019","abstract":"This article offers revised historical national accounts for Norway for the period 1816–2019. The revisions have been carried out on both the production side and the expenditure side. The major difference is that the new series include a significantly broader set of data than the previous series. This makes it possible to calculate GDP for a wider set of industries with more detailed and precise data, in a way that is more in line with modern national accounting methodology. The new series deviate at some points from the previous series. In particular, they show higher growth rates during the last half of the nineteenth century until 1906 and lower growth rates from 1918 to 1930. This is basically due to improved quality of deflators and partly due to the extended use of a double deflation technique. The revised output and input figures play a less important role. In light of the revised series, parts of Norway's economic growth and development history should be revised. Comparisons with Denmark and Sweden reveal a relatively higher level of GDP per capita for Norway during the second half of the nineteenth century than according to the previous series.","wordCount":194,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Ola Honningdal Grytten"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13085","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bd1a9252597c4a09","title":"Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: Prior Conditions, Implementation, and Enforcement","abstract":"We examine the capital-market effects of changes in securities regulation in the European Union aimed at reducing market abuse and increasing transparency. To estimate causal effects for the population of E.U. firms, we exploit that for plausibly exogenous reasons, such as national legislative procedures, E.U. countries adopted these directives at different times. We find significant increases in market liquidity, but the effects are stronger in countries with stricter implementation and traditionally more stringent securities regulation. The findings suggest that countries with initially weaker regulation do not catch up with stronger countries, and that countries diverge more upon harmonizing regulation. (","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Hans Bonde Christensen","Luzi Hail","Christian Leuz"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bd367345919afe23","title":"Family firms and carbon emissions","abstract":"This study examines the relationship between family firms and carbon emissions using a large cross-country dataset of 6600 non-financial firms over the period 2010–2019. We find that family firms emit less carbon than non-family firms, especially after the Paris Agreement. Several factors contribute to this outcome, including governance structure, the degree of family control, R&D spending, and the issuance of green patents. Our study also shows that despite lower carbon emissions, family firms have lower environmental scores, primarily due to their reduced public commitment to emission reduction. Both environmental scores and carbon emissions increase when non-family CEOs are appointed and when family ownership decreases, indicating that agency conflicts may influence these outcomes.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Marcin Borsuk","Nicolas Eugster","Paul‐Olivier Klein","Oskar Kowalewski"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102672","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bd405fba00a6b5a5","title":"Evaluating the impact of general versus vocational education on labor market outcomes in Egypt by means of a regression discontinuity design","abstract":"This study contributes to the scarce literature in developing countries by causally analyzing the long-term impact of secondary general versus vocational education on labor market outcomes in Egypt. Our regression discontinuity design (RDD) exploits a cutoff in exam scores that tracks students in upper-secondary vocational or general education. Pooling data from the 2012 and 2018 Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), we find that among male upper-secondary graduates aged 25-49 and employed in the private sector, general education graduates experience a relative advantage in terms of formal employment. We find no impact on employment, public-sector employment, or wages for those in (wage) employment. Given the relatively poor prospects of vocational graduates, who account for two-thirds of enrollment at the upper-secondary level, improving the efficiency of vocational upper-secondary education could have a significant impact on the working conditions of many Egyptians.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Johanna Kemper","Ursula Renold"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103172","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bd4114a634b4ce2a","title":"Research Deserts and Oases: Evidence from 27 Thousand Economics Journal Articles on Africa","abstract":"The distribution of economics research across Africa's 54 countries is highly uneven. I use a simple conceptual model and reduced‐form regressions with cross‐sectional, panel, and subnational data to explore the determinants of this distribution. Of the variation in research across countries, 93% can be explained by peacefulness, political institutions, international tourist arrivals, having English as an official language, and population. Within countries, research is concentrated in regions with higher income and large urban areas. Most research on African countries is context‐specific, so the lack of research in many countries and regions means a smaller potential evidence base for local policymakers.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Obie Porteous"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12510","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bd4720cbee455c20","title":"Anchored Inflation Expectations","abstract":"We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Carlos Carvalho","Stefano Eusepi","Emanuel Moench","Bruce Preston"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200080","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bd57de79e2852747","title":"Deadly discrimination: Implications of “missing girls” for workplace safety","abstract":"We examine an indirect but potentially deadly consequence of the “missing girls” phenomenon. A shortage of brides causes many parents with sons of marriageable age to work harder and seek higher-paying but dangerous jobs. In response, employers invest less in workplace safety, which in turn increases work-related mortality. Drawing from a broad range of data sets and taking advantage of large regional and temporal variations in sex ratios in China, we demonstrate that in areas with more severe shortages of young women, the cohort of parents with sons of marriageable age suffers a higher incidence of accidental injuries and workplace deaths.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Zhibo Tan","Shang‐Jin Wei","Xiaobo Zhang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102678","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bd6129fc1ffe4e47","title":"Really Uncertain Business Cycles","abstract":"We investigate the role of uncertainty in business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty rises sharply during recessions, including during the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Second, we show that uncertainty shocks can generate drops in gross domestic product of around 2.5% in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. However, we also find that uncertainty shocks need to be supplemented by first†moment shocks to fit consumption over the cycle. So our data and simulations suggest recessions are best modelled as being driven by shocks with a negative first moment and a positive second moment. Finally, we show that increased uncertainty can make first†moment policies, like wage subsidies, temporarily less effective because firms become more cautious in responding to price changes.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Nicholas Bloom","Max Floetotto","Nir Jaimovich","Itay Saporta‐Eksten","Stephen Terry"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10927","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bd8366e420e491c9","title":"Peer influence on trade credit","abstract":"We examine the influence of peer firms on trade credit policies of listed firms in the United States. We posit and find evidence that firms mimic their peers in formulating trade credit policies. The findings are more pronounced for firms that operate in highly competitive product markets and an uncertain information environment. Our results show that firms not only mimic peers in similar circumstances but also imitate their more and less successful peers. We find that the benefits of mimicking peers' trade credit policies increase initially, but for firms that already maintain high levels of trade credit, these benefits diminish faster as the intensity of mimicking increases. Our results are robust to different methods of selecting peers, sampling, different proxies, and estimation techniques.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Daniel Gyimah","Michael Machokoto","Anywhere Sikochi"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101685","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bd83a8ec13d794ec","title":"Economic Consequences of State Failure—Legal Capacity, Regulatory Activity, and Market Integration in Poland, 1505–1772","abstract":"With use of innovative proxies and new annual data, I demonstrate that relatively high legal capacity and regulatory activity of the early-modern Polish parliament, the Seym, was positively associated with deeper domestic commodity market integration. Conversely, the lack of effective law-making, caused by the right of a single delegate to discontinue the Seym’s sessions, fostered market fragmentation. This indicates that early parliamentary regimes required legal capacity to harmonize domestic institutions and reduce the transaction costs. The Polish case suggests a hypothesis that the pre-1800 “Little Divergence” between European parliamentary regimes could be explained by differences in their governments’ capacities.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Mikołaj Malinowski"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000330","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bd8aedd96990dd6c","title":"Digitalization and the performance of non-technological firms: Evidence from the COVID-19 and natural disaster shocks","abstract":"Over the last decades, firms have been incorporating digital technologies into their operations, a process known as digitalization. Nevertheless, understanding the link between digitalization and firm performance remains challenging. We propose a new firm-level measure of digital intensity based on textual analysis of business descriptions and quarterly earnings calls. To overcome endogeneity, we use two quasi-natural experiments: the COVID-19 pandemic and shocks involving suppliers affected by U.S. natural disasters. Non-technological firms with higher pre-shock digital intensity experience higher abnormal returns, higher profitability, and higher revenue growth during the shocks. The supply chain is one of the areas through which digitalization contributes to significantly mitigate the effects of these shocks, thereby enhancing firm resilience.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["José‐Miguel Gaspar","Sumingyue Wang","Liang Xu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102670","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bd90b1cd8110cde7","title":"COVID-19 and small enterprises in the food supply chain: Early impacts and implications for longer-term food system resilience in low- and middle-income countries","abstract":"Food and nutrition security play an essential role in weathering and overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic-and in achieving sustainable development. In most low- and middle-income countries, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) play an essential role in food supply chains and thus in ensuring food and nutrition security. However, limited attention has been paid to how these critical food system actors are being impacted by the pandemic and associated measures. This paper helps fill that gap through analysis of data from 367 agri-food MSMEs in 17 countries, collected in May 2020 and capturing early impacts of the pandemic on their operations. About 94.3% of respondents reported that their firm's operations had been impacted by the pandemic, primarily through decreased sales as well as lower access to inputs and financing amid limited financial reserves. Difficulty with staffing was also widely cited. Eighty-four percent of firms reported changing their production volume as a result of the pandemic; of these, about 13% reported stopping production and about 82% reported decreasing production. Approximately 54% had changed product prices as a result of the pandemic. The probability of being severely impacted was significantly higher for firms with <50,000 USD in annual turnover; a larger decrease in consumer mobility for grocery/pharmacy shopping also increased the probability of a severe impact. Surprisingly, the youngest firms and those with the fewest employees (controlling for turnover) were less likely to be severely impacted. Over 80% of firms had taken actions to mitigate the pandemic's impact on their operations and/or staff, and about 44% were considering exploring new business areas, with some seeing opportunities for growth. We conclude by discussing implications for policy responses to address immediate challenges as well as increase long-term food system resilience to support further progress towards sustainable development.","wordCount":292,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Stella Nordhagen","Uduak Igbeka","Hannah Rowlands","Ritta Sabbas Shine","Emily Heneghan","Jonathan Tench"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105405","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bd9ccb5970ccdb44","title":"Banking the Unbanked? Evidence from Three Countries","abstract":"We experimentally test the impact of expanding access to basic bank accounts in Uganda, Malawi, and Chile. Over two years, 17, 10, and 3 percent of treatment individuals made five or more deposits, respectively. Average monthly deposits in treatment accounts were sizable among users, corresponding to the seventy-ninth, ninety-first, and ninety-sixth percentiles of baseline savings. Survey data show no discernible intention-to-treat effects on savings or any downstream outcomes, though we cannot reject large effect sizes for active users. Results suggest that policies merely focused on expanding access to basic accounts are unlikely to improve welfare noticeably on average.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Pascaline Dupas","Dean Karlan","Jonathan Robinson","Diego Ubfal"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160597","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bdbd4bee1d362052","title":"Local sourcing in developing countries: The role of foreign direct investments and global value chains","abstract":"The local sourcing of intermediate products is one the main channels for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers. This paper investigates whether and how participation and positioning in the global value chains (GVCs) of host countries is associated to local sourcing by foreign investors. Matching two firm-level data sets on 19 Sub-Saharan African countries and Vietnam to country-sector level measures of GVC involvement, we find that more intense GVC participation and upstream specialization are associated to a higher share of inputs sourced locally by foreign investors. These effects are larger in countries with stronger rule of law and better education.","wordCount":99,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Vito Amendolagine","Andrea Presbitero","Roberta Rabellotti","Marco Sanfilippo"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.08.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bdc2f80bcbac803a","title":"Typhoid Fever, Water Quality, and Human Capital Formation","abstract":"New water purification technologies led to large mortality declines by helping eliminate typhoid fever and other waterborne diseases. We examine how this affected human capital formation using early-life typhoid fatality rates to proxy for water quality. We merge city-level data to individuals linked between the 1900 and 1940 Censuses. Eliminating early-life exposure to typhoid fever increased later-life earnings by one percent and educational attainment by one month. Instrumenting for typhoid fever using typhoid rates from cities that lie upstream produces results nine times larger. The increase in earnings from eliminating typhoid fever more than offset the cost of elimination.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Brian Beach","Joseph P. Ferrie","Martín Saavedra","Werner Troesken"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000413","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bdc741447fd02fc9","title":"Breaking the Glass Ceiling? The Effect of Board Quotas on Female Labour Market Outcomes in Norway","abstract":"In late 2003, Norway passed a law mandating 40% representation of each gender on the board of public limited liability companies. The primary objective of this reform was to increase the representation of women in top positions in the corporate sector and decrease the gender disparity in earnings within that sector. We document that the women appointed to these boards post-reform were observably more qualified than their female predecessors along many dimensions, and that the gender gap in earnings within boards fell substantially. However, we see no robust evidence that the reform benefited the larger set of women employed in the companies subject to the quota. Moreover, the reform had no clear impact on highly qualified women whose qualifications mirror those of board members but who were not appointed to boards. Finally, we find mixed support for the view that the reform affected the decisions of young women. While the reform was not accompanied by any change in female enrollment in business education programmes, we do see some improvements in labour market outcomes for young women with graduate business degrees in their early career stages; however, we observe similar improvements for young women with graduate science degrees, suggesting this may not be due to the reform. Overall, seven years after the board quota policy fully came into effect, we conclude that it had very little discernible impact on women in business beyond its direct effect on the women who made it into boardrooms.","wordCount":243,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Marianne Bertrand","Sandra E. Black","Sissel Jensen","Adriana Lleras‐Muney"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bdd5d2fdcd4b047e","title":"Long-term barriers to global fertility convergence","abstract":"After WWII, the demographic transition exhibited features of convergence between developing countries and the forerunner countries with low fertility. Although today fertility is low in the majority of countries, significant differences persist. In this article, I study club convergence of fertility in 190 countries over the period 1950 to 2018. First, I apply a novel econometric method for convergence analysis and club clustering. I find no evidence of global fertility convergence, and I classify the 190 countries into four clubs. I further classify countries into two clubs at the beginning of the period and identify a club of countries transitioning from high to low fertility. Second, I interpret fertility convergence clubs as a feature of the long-term process of economic development and estimate an ordered probit model of the probability that a country enters one of three clubs characterized by high, medium, and low barriers to global fertility convergence. Here, the focus is on ancestral fundamental factors of diversity in economic development. Estimates show a statistically significant inverted U-shaped relationship between interpersonal population diversity and the probability of lower barriers, consistent with the literature on diversity and development. Estimates also highlight that genetic distance to the USA and years since the Neolithic transition to agriculture cause higher barriers to fertility decline.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Erasmo Papagni"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00895-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bde04d7f6a4bdc75","title":"Public Mass Modern Education, Religion, and Human Capital in Twentieth-Century Egypt","abstract":"Public mass modern education was a major pillar of state-led development in the post-Colonial period. I examine the impact of Egypt's transformation in 1951–1953 of traditional elementary schools ( kuttabs ) into modern primary schools on the Christian-Muslim educational and occupational differentials, which were in favor of Christians. The reform granted kuttabs ' graduates (where Muslim students were over-represented) access to higher stages of education that were previously confined to primary schools' graduates. Exploiting the variation in exposure to the reform across cohorts and districts of birth among males in 1986, I find that the reform benefited Muslims but not Christians. What Europe is suffering from is the result of generalizing education among all levels of society… they have no chance of avoiding what happened [Europe's 1848 revolutions]. So if this is an example in front of us, our duty is simply to teach them how to read and write to a certain limit in order to encourage satisfactory work and not to spread education beyond that point. Muhammad Ali Pasha, Ottoman Viceroy of Egypt (1805–1848), in a private letter to his son, Ibrahim Pasha (in Judith Cochran 1986, p. 6) Education is like the water we drink and the air we breathe. Taha Hussein, Egyptian liberal intellectual and Egypt's Minister of Education (1950–1952) The poor go to heaven, but can't they have a share on Earth too? They are willing to give up a share in heaven in exchange for a share on Earth. Gamal Abdul-Nasser, President of Egypt (1956–1970) (Excerpt from a public speech)","wordCount":256,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Mohamed Saleh"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050716000796","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bdee3082d2edb5fc","title":"Subjective performance evaluations and employee careers","abstract":"Employees who work in complex environments are often evaluated by their supervisors. Data on these evaluations promise to be valuable for analyzing career dynamics and human resources practices. However, existing literature on subjective evaluations is based on data from individual firms. Furthermore, how supervisors evaluate workers and how firms use these evaluations might vary substantially with context, precisely because these evaluations are subjective. Thus, little is known regarding whether findings from single-firm studies generalize to broader settings. We examine personnel data from six large companies and establish how subjective performance ratings correlate with objective career outcomes. We find many similarities across firms in how these ratings correlate with base pay, bonuses, promotions, demotions, separations, quits, and dismissals and cautiously propose these as empirical regularities.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Anders Frederiksen","Fabian Lange","Ben Kriechel"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.12.016","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-bdf2875ce972ed76","title":"Jobs for Justice(s): Corruption in the Supreme Court of India","abstract":"We investigate whether judicial decisions are affected by career concerns of judges by analyzing two questions: Do judges respond to incentives to pander by ruling in favor of the government in the hope of receiving jobs after retiring from the Supreme Court? Does the government reward judges who rule in its favor with prestigious jobs? We construct a data set of Supreme Court of India cases involving the government for 1999–2014. We find that incentives to pander have a causal effect on judicial decision-making, and they are jointly determined by the importance of the case and whether the judge retires with enough time left in a government’s term to be rewarded with a prestigious job. We also find that authoring favorable judgments increases the likelihood of being appointed to prestigious post–Supreme Court jobs. This suggests the presence of corruption in the form of government influence over judicial decisions.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Madhav S. Aney","Shubhankar Dam","Giovanni Ko"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713728","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bdf876766d249bbd","title":"Imperfect Information and Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata","abstract":"This paper explores which factors trigger an adjustment in consumers’ inflation expectations and looks at the implications regarding forecast errors. We find support for imperfect information models, as inflation volatility and news trigger an adjustment in expectations. Furthermore, we document that individual expectations become more accurate if they have been adjusted.","wordCount":51,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Lena Dräger","Michael J. Lamla"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12189","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-be67c2600e1b3b9d","title":"Productivity and Welfare Effects of Nigeria's e-Voucher-Based Input Subsidy Program","abstract":"\" subsidies, Nigeria has embarked on a potentially innovative mobile phone-based input subsidy program that provides fertilizer and improved seed subsidies through electronic vouchers. In this article, we examined the productivity and welfare effects of the program using household-level data from rural Nigeria. The article employed instrumental variable regression approach to control for the potential endogeneity of the input subsidy program. Our results suggest that the program is effective in improving productivity and welfare outcomes of beneficiary smallholders. The size of the estimated effects suggests a large improvement in productivity and welfare outcomes. Moreover, the distributional effects of the program suggest no heterogeneity effects based on gender and farm land size. These results are robust to using alternative measurements of program participation. The benefit-cost ratio of 1.11 suggests that the program is marginally cost-effective. Overall, our results suggest that while improving average productivity is a good outcome for improving food security, improving the distributional outcome of the program by targeting the most disadvantaged groups would maximize the program's contribution to food security and poverty reduction.","wordCount":175,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Tesfamicheal Wossen","Tahirou Abdoulaye","Arega D. Alene","Shiferaw Feleke","Jacob Ricker‐Gilbert","Victor M. Manyong","Bola Amoke Awotide"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.04.021","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-be6d7cadfd08db38","title":"Reviewing, Reforming, and Rethinking Global Energy Subsidies: Towards a Political Economy Research Agenda","abstract":"This article provides a review of global energy subsidies—of definitions and estimation techniques, their type and scope, their drawbacks, and effective ways to reform them. Based on an assessment of both policy reports and peer-reviewed studies, this article presents evidence that energy subsidies could reach into the trillions of dollars each year. It also highlights how most subsidies appear to offer net costs to society, rather than benefits, in the form of government deficits, increased waste, shortages of energy fuels, and aggravated environmental impacts, among others. The review then talks about how tools such as best practices in measurement and estimation, subsidy elimination, impact studies, and adjustment packages can dramatically reorient subsidies so that they become more socially and environmentally sustainable. It also argues that such efforts need to explicitly learn from previous successes and recognize the importance of political economy, the possible winners and losers to subsidy reform. The final part proposes a future research agenda.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Benjamin K. Sovacool"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.12.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-be73a3730d305fbf","title":"Inflation, oil prices, and economic activity in recent crisis: Evidence from the UK","abstract":"This study examines the link between inflation and the macroeconomy such as output, trade balance and unemployment through as reflected through crude oil prices. Using monthly data from the UK from January 2010 to June 2022, we apply a combination of three analyses including the VAR model, time-varying VAR analysis, and time-varying panel model with robustness. The results reveal that in the event of inflation shocks the other economic indicators decrease initially. However, Brent crude oil shocks are the quickest in responding to surging inflation compared to other proxies, rebounding to a positive level in only one month. Furthermore, the impact of inflation shocks is strong in the first quarter but diminishes in the long run. This information can be used to inform and assist policymakers to develop policies that mitigate the negative effects of inflation in the short term. Our findings also have important implications for businesses operating in the UK in making strategic decisions.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Rizwan Ahmed","Xihui Haviour Chen","Chamaiporn Kumpamool","Dung T.K. Nguyen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106918","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-be77a31378e2d788","title":"The fundamental law of active management: Redux","abstract":"We develop a fundamental law of active management based on cross-section factor models for residual returns where the latter have unconditional mean zero and the factor exposures have zero mean and unit variance. Under our model framework the factor returns are cross-sectional information coefficients ICt that vary randomly over time with constant mean and variance. The fundamental law holds for portfolio managers who use conditional expectation of the residual returns and the associated conditional covariance matrix as inputs to active quadratic utility portfolio optimization. The fundamental law formula shows that the optimal portfolio's information ratio (IR) is positively related to the mean of ICt and the number of assets N in the portfolio selection universe, inversely related to the volatility of ICt, and is an absolute upper bound on IR as N tends to infinity. Support for our choice of factor model and our fundamental law is provided by an empirical study showing that significantly higher IR values are obtained using our choice of factor model as compared with IR values using an industry standard factor model.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Zhuanxin Ding","R. Douglas Martin"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.05.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-be796995024feaf6","title":"Confidence regions for entries of a large precision matrix","abstract":"We consider the statistical inference for high-dimensional precision matrices. Specifically, we propose a data-driven procedure for constructing a class of simultaneous confidence regions for a subset of the entries of a large precision matrix. The confidence regions can be applied to test for specific structures of a precision matrix, and to recover its nonzero components. We first construct an estimator for the precision matrix via penalized node-wise regression. We then develop the Gaussian approximation to approximate the distribution of the maximum difference between the estimated and the true precision coefficients.A computationally feasible parametric bootstrap algorithm is developed to implement the proposed procedure. The theoretical justification is established under the setting which allows temporal dependence among observations. Therefore the proposed procedure is applicable to both independent and identically distributed data and time series data. Numerical results with both simulated and real data confirm the good performance of the proposed method.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Jinyuan Chang","Yumou Qiu","Qiwei Yao","Tao Zou"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.03.020","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-be8283ec1dd423f4","title":"Changing livelihoods at India’s rural–urban transition","abstract":"In India, the past couple of decades witnessed, simultaneously, a massive shift of employment out of agriculture, substantial urban growth in heretofore rural regions, and rapid increases in the rates of labor migration. But very little is known about new livelihoods being forged or the whereabouts of these livelihoods. We draw on extensive primary data collected at two sites in West Bengal and Bihar, along with a comprehensive analysis of population census and GIS data, to investigate livelihood transformations and household well-being. We observe large-scale change, exceeding common perceptions of academics and policy makers. While the shift out of agriculture is momentous, alternative local livelihoods are scarce and, more than ever, labor migration offers a way out for many households. Traditional seasonal migration has made way for more permanent forms of circular labor migration. Our comparative study shows that the timing and nature of this transformation varies to some extent across India as the decline in agricultural employment occurred at different times. We also observe significantly different impacts of domestic versus international labor migration. There is a pressing need for pro-active government policies that stimulate local economic restructuring and livelihood opportunities and, as long as these local economies are insufficiently developed, that facilitate circular labor migration.","wordCount":206,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Chetan Choithani","Robbin Jan van Duijne","Jan Nijman"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105617","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-be86ea7ed3d60601","title":"Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What?","abstract":"We analyze how academic experts and nonexperts forecast the results of 15 piece-rate and behavioral treatments in a real-effort task. The average forecast of experts closely predicts the experimental results, with a strong wisdom-of-crowds effect: the average forecast outperforms 96 percent of individual forecasts. Citations, academic rank, field, and contextual experience do not correlate with accuracy. Experts as a group do better than nonexperts, but not if accuracy is defined as rank-ordering treatments. Measures of effort, confidence, and revealed ability are predictive of forecast accuracy to some extent and allow us to identify “superforecasters” among the nonexperts.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Stefano DellaVigna","Devin G. Pope"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699976","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-be8c861bd6f025cc","title":"Fostering trust: When the rhetoric of sharing can backfire","abstract":"The peer-to-peer lending and transfer of underutilized resources - the so-called Sharing Economy - make up for a sizeable and rapidly increasing portion of the economy. The digital platforms that enable it have the primary goal of promoting trust among users and providers. In an online experiment, we study how the platform’s revenue model (No-profit vs. For-profit) interacts with its communication strategy in shaping trust. In particular, we consider two communication strategies, one highlighting the trust dimension and the other highlighting the interaction’s profitability. We show how these strategies can affect trust differently for pure-sharing and market-oriented for-profit platforms. We observe that a communication strategy that evokes trust feelings, if sent by a for-profit platform, decreases trust in the interaction. This evidence suggests that leveraging a rhetoric of trust can backfire for profit-oriented platforms in terms of trust generation.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Simona Cicognani","Giorgia Romagnoli","Ivan Soraperra"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102728","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-be938ed2ecc32421","title":"Who gains from corporate tax cuts?","abstract":"Goods producers increase their capital expenditure and employment in response to a cut in marginal corporate income tax rates or an increase in investment tax credits. In contrast, companies in the service sector mostly use any tax windfall to increase dividend payouts. We base our conclusions on a novel measure of U.S. firm-specific tax shocks that combines changes in statutory tax rates faced by each firm with narrative identified legislated U.S. federal tax changes between 1950 and 2006.","wordCount":78,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["James Cloyne","Ezgi Kurt","Paolo Surico"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103722","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bea3fd7429476b1a","title":"The Long-Run Effects of Teacher Strikes: Evidence from Argentina","abstract":"We exploit cross-cohort variation in the prevalence of teacher strikes within and across provinces in Argentina to examine how teacher strikes affect student long-run outcomes. Being exposed to the average incidence of strikes during primary school reduces labor earnings of males and females by 3.2% and 1.9%, respectively. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that this amounts to an aggregate annual earnings loss of $2.34 billion. We also find an increase in unemployment and a decline in the skill levels of the occupations into which students sort. These effects are driven, at least in part, by a reduction in educational attainment.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["David Jaume","Alexander Willén"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703134","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-beb55291a6bd6ffe","title":"Women of an uncertain age: quantifying human capital accumulation in rural Ireland in the nineteenth century","abstract":"Geary and Stark find that Ireland's post‐Famine per capita GDP converged with British levels, and that this convergence was largely due to total factor productivity growth rather than mass emigration. In this article, new long‐run measurements of human capital accumulation in Ireland are devised in order to facilitate a better assessment of sources of this productivity growth, including the relative contribution of men and women. This is done by exploiting the frequency at which age data heap at round ages, widely interpreted as an indicator of a population's basic numeracy skills. Because Földvári, van Leeuwen, and van Leeuwen‐Li find that gender‐specific trends in this measure derived from census returns are biased by who is reporting and recording the age information, any computed numeracy trends are corrected using data from prison and workhouse registers, sources in which women ostensibly self‐reported their age. The findings show that rural Irish women born early in the nineteenth century had substantially lower levels of human capital than uncorrected census data would otherwise suggest. These results are large in magnitude and thus economically significant. The speed at which women converged is consistent with Geary and Stark's interpretation of Irish economic history; Ireland probably graduated to Europe's club of advanced economies thanks in part to rapid advances in female human capital.","wordCount":214,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Matthias Blum","Christopher L. Colvin","Laura McAtackney","Eoin McLaughlin"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12333","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-beb913acadb88488","title":"A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities","abstract":"We propose a theory of monetary policy and macroprudential interventions in financial markets. We focus on economies with nominal rigidities in goods and labor markets and subject to constraints on monetary policy, such as the zero lower bound or fixed exchange rates. We identify an aggregate demand externality that can be corrected by macroprudential interventions in financial markets. Ex post, the distribution of wealth across agents affects aggregate demand and output. Ex ante, however, these effects are not internalized in private financial decisions. We provide a simple formula for the required financial interventions that depends on a small number of measurable sufficient statistics. We also characterize optimal monetary policy. We extend our framework to incorporate pecuniary externalities, providing a unified approach to both externalities. Finally, we provide a number of applications which illustrate the relevance of our theory.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Emmanuel Farhi","Iván Werning"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11883","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-bec1a4839d3c0a1f","title":"Ambiguity aversion and household portfolio choice puzzles: Empirical evidence","abstract":"We test the relation between ambiguity aversion and five household portfolio choice puzzles: nonparticipation in equities, low allocations to equity, home-bias, own-company stock ownership, and portfolio under-diversification. In a representative US household survey, we measure ambiguity preferences using custom-designed questions based on Ellsberg urns. As theory predicts, ambiguity aversion is negatively associated with stock market participation, the fraction of financial assets in stocks, and foreign stock ownership, but it is positively related to own-company stock ownership. Conditional on stock ownership, ambiguity aversion is related to portfolio under-diversification, and during the financial crisis, ambiguity-averse respondents were more likely to sell stocks.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Stephen G. Dimmock","Roy Kouwenberg","Olivia S. Mitchell","Kim Peijnenburg"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bee726b428c87a4e","title":"Determinants of individuals’ objective and subjective financial fragility during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"We examine determinants of the objective and subjective financial fragility of 2100 individuals across Australia, France, Germany, and South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective financial fragility reflects individuals' (in)ability to deal with unexpected expenses, while subjective financial fragility reflects their emotional response to financial demands. Controlling for an extensive set of socio-demographics, we find that negative personal experiences during the pandemic (i.e., reduced or lost employment; COVID-19 infection) are associated with higher objective and subjective financial fragility. However, individuals' cognitive (i.e., financial literacy) as well as non-cognitive abilities (i.e., internal locus of control; psychological resilience) help to counteract this higher financial fragility. Finally, we examine the role of government financial support (i.e., income support; debt relief) and find that it is negatively related to financial fragility only for the economically weakest households. Our results have implications for public policymakers, providing levers for reducing individuals' objective and subjective financial fragility.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Stefanie Kleimeier","Arvid O. I. Hoffmann","Marie‐Hélène Broihanne","Daria Plotkina","Anja S. Göritz"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106881","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-beecc597b68081de","title":"The effects of labor choice on investment and output dynamics","abstract":"We incorporate both labor and capital as production inputs and discuss the effects of labor choice on a firm’s optimal investment decision and output dynamics based on real options framework. In particular, we introduce different levels of labor flexibility and examine how it affects the firm’s investment and employment strategy. We show that upward-only adjustable labor, which can arise from employment protection, discourages investment and makes a negative short-run impact on labor employment but a positive impact in the long-run. We also show that the firm invests earlier and produces more at the investment timing when it is either highly labor-intensive or highly capital-intensive. The impact of labor share on output is more pronounced as time elapses and it is more significant when labor is only upward-adjustable than the case of fully flexible labor. Furthermore, we show that uncertainty can make both positive and negative impacts on investment, but that the latter is more pronounced when the labor share is high.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Haejun Jeon","Xue Cui","Chuanqian Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102497","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bf0e13b532b3f6e5","title":"The Facebook-Giphy Merger","abstract":"I examine the Facebook-Giphy merger which the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) blocked in 2022. The CMA’s decision marks the first time that an antitrust agency has blocked a big tech acquisition and suggests that at least some antitrust agencies are willing to take a tougher stance on mergers in the digital sector. The decision has a number of interesting features that I discuss in the paper.","wordCount":68,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Yossi Spiegel"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10040-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bf15ada4c30e72cc","title":"The Weak Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity","abstract":"We show that cyclical fluctuations in search and recruiting intensity are quantitatively important for explaining the weak job recovery from the Great Recession. We demonstrate this result using an estimated labor search model that features endogenous search and recruiting intensity. Since the textbook model with free entry implies constant recruiting intensity, we introduce a cost of vacancy creation, so that firms respond to aggregate shocks by adjusting both vacancies and recruiting intensity. Fluctuations in search and recruiting intensity driven by shocks to productivity and the discount factor help bridge the gap between the actual and model-predicted job-filling rate.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Sylvain Leduc","Zheng Liu"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170176","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf19a441df553fdd","title":"Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High-Dimensional Data","abstract":"The accepted manuscript version (last revised 5 Jan 2018 (v8)) has 118 pages, 3 tables, 11 figures, and includes supplementary appendix. This version corrects some typos in Example 2 of the published version. This supplement contains 11 appendices with additional results and some omitted proofs. Appendices F-J include additional results for Sections 2-7, respectively. Appendix K gathers auxiliary results on algebra of covering entropies. Appendices L and M contain the proofs of Sections 4 and 5 omitted from the main text. Appendix N contains the proofs of Sections 6 omitted from the main text, together with the proofs of the additional results for Section 6 in Appendix I. Appendix O reports the results of a simulation experiment.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Alexandre Belloni","Victor Chernozhukov","I. Fern�ndez-Val","Christian Hansen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12723","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf1a46341a9de815","title":"With a Little Help from My Friends: The Effects of Good Samaritan and Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid-Related Deaths","abstract":"In an effort to address the opioid epidemic, a majority of states recently passed some version of a Good Samaritan law (GSL) and/or a naloxone access law (NAL). Good Samaritan laws provide immunity from prosecution for drug possession to anyone who seeks medical assistance in the event of a drug overdose; NALs allow laypersons to administer naloxone, which temporarily counteracts the effects of an opioid overdose. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System multiple-cause-of-death mortality files for 1999–2014, this study is the first to examine the effects of these laws on overdose deaths involving opioids. The estimated effects of GSLs on opioid-related mortality are consistently negative but not statistically significant. Adoption of an NAL is associated with a statistically significant 9–10 percent reduction in opioid-related mortality, although the negative association between NALs and opioid-related mortality appears to be driven by early adopters—states that passed legislation before 2011.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Daniel I. Rees","Joseph J. Sabia","Laura M. Argys","Dhaval Dave","Joshua Latshaw"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700703","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf20a6717ac71d47","title":"What Does Trade Openness Measure?","abstract":"An empirical measure of trade openness is defined as the ratio of total trade to GDP, and represents a convenient variable routinely used for cross‐country studies on a variety of issues. However, the effects that the crude measure captures remain ambiguous, making it difficult to interpret the empirical results. Drawing on several strands of the literature, this study examines the informational content of the trade openness measure using intranational and international data. We find that, even for fully integrated economies within a country, trade openness is approximately half as variable as it is for segmented diverse countries around the world. The information it conveys is better characterized as the extent of the economic remoteness and idiosyncratic distribution of sectoral production. The cross‐country variation of trade openness derives more from the variability in GDP than trade.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Eiji Fujii"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12275","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf244bdf40bbffed","title":"Agricultural transformation and food and nutrition security in Ghana: Does farm production diversity (still) matter for household dietary diversity?","abstract":"Africa south of the Sahara experienced an acceleration of economic growth in recent years that was accompanied by structural changes in national economies. Some African countries, such as Ghana, managed to utilize rapid growth for poverty reduction and improving food and nutrition security. Transformation of agriculture appears to have played an important role in this context. However, the linkages between agricultural transformation and food and nutrition security at the household level are not well understood. This article examines the linkage between farm production diversity and household dietary diversity in rural Ghana and how that linkage changed between 2005–06 and 2012–13. The empirical analysis employs a regression model that controls for region- and time-fixed effects. The estimation results suggest that farm production diversification, as well as household income growth, continues to be strongly associated with increased household dietary diversity. The analysis further explores the mechanism that underlies this production-consumption linkage by systematically modifying the basic model specification.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Olivier Ecker"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.08.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bf33a9c08dc5e656","title":"35 years of reforms: A panel analysis of the incidence of, and employee and employer responses to, social security contributions in the UK","abstract":"We examine the effects of employee and employer social security contributions (SSCs) on labor cost, hours of work, and labor cost per hour, using a long running panel dataset that allows us to exploit 35 years of policy reforms in the United Kingdom. We find that reductions in marginal rates of employee – but not employer – SSCs have positive effects on labor cost that operate through hours of work, while labor cost falls much more when average employer SSCs rates are reduced than when average employee SSCs rates are reduced, with most of this differential effect coming through reductions in hourly labor cost. We interpret this as evidence that employees change their hours in response to SSCs, but that in the short- to medium-run at least, the formal incidence of SSCs can matter for their behavioral impacts and economic incidence.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Stuart Adam","David Phillips","Barra Roantree"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.05.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bf357ca52c728370","title":"Bank-Branch Supply, Financial Inclusion, and Wealth Accumulation","abstract":"This paper studies how financial inclusion affects wealth accumulation. Exploiting the U.S. interstate branching deregulation between 1994 and 2005, we find that an exogenous expansion of bank branches increases low-income household financial inclusion. We then show that financial inclusion fosters household wealth accumulation. Relative to their unbanked counterparts, banked households accumulate assets in interest-bearing accounts, invest more in durable assets, such as vehicles, have a better access to debt, and have a lower probability of facing financial strain. The results suggest that promoting financial inclusion for low-income populations can improve household wealth accumulation and financial security.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Claire Célérier","Adrien Matray"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz046","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf365113409be270","title":"Illiquidity component of credit risk – the 2015 lawrence r. Klein lecture","abstract":"We provide a theoretical decomposition of bank credit risk into insolvency risk and illiquidity risk, defining illiquidity risk to be the counterfactual probability of failure due to a run when the bank would have survived in the absence of a run. We show that illiquidity risk is (i) decreasing in the “liquidity ratio”—the ratio of realizable cash on the balance sheet to short‐term liabilities; (ii) decreasing in the excess return of debt; and (iii) increasing in the solvency uncertainty—a measure of the variance of the asset portfolio.","wordCount":87,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Stephen Morris","Hyun Song Shin"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12192","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf369e3907c9eee7","title":"Multidimensional Reasoning in Games: Framework, Equilibrium, and Applications","abstract":"We develop a framework for analyzing multidimensional reasoning in strategic interactions, which is motivated by two experimental findings: (i) in games with a large and complex strategy space, players tend to think in terms of strategy characteristics rather than the strategies themselves; (ii) in their strategic deliberation, players consider one characteristic at a time. A multidimensional equilibrium is a vector of characteristics representing a stable mode of behavior: a player does not wish to modify any one characteristic. The concept is applied to several economic interactions, where a vector of characteristics, rather than a distribution of strategies, is identified as stable.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Ayala Arad","Ariel Rubinstein"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170322","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf3973af5e4ab241","title":"Banking stress test effects on returns and risks","abstract":"We investigate the effects of the announcement and the disclosure of the clarification, methodology, and outcomes of the U.S. banking stress tests on banks’ equity prices, credit risk, systematic risk, and systemic risk. We find evidence that stress tests have moved stock and credit markets following the disclosure of stress test results. We also find that banks’ systematic risk, as measured by betas, declined in nearly all years after the publication of stress test results. Our evidence suggests that stress tests affect systemic risk.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Cenkhan Sahin","Jakob de Haan","Ekaterina Neretina"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105843","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bf4154c0fae4fe58","title":"Sex differences in trust and trustworthiness: A meta-analysis of the trust game and the gift-exchange game","abstract":"We present a meta-analytic review of the literature on sex differences in the trust game (174 effect sizes) and the related gift-exchange game (35 effect sizes). Based on parental investment theory and social role theory we expected men to be more trusting and women to be more trustworthy. Indeed, men were more trusting in the trust game (g = 0.22), yet we found no significant sex difference in trust in the gift-exchange game (g = 0.15). Regarding trustworthiness, we found no significant sex difference in the trust game (g = −0.04), and we found men, not women, to be more trustworthy in the gift-exchange game (g = 0.33). These results suggest that men send more money than women do when their money is going to be multiplied, thereby creating an efficiency gain. This so-called “male multiplier effect” may be explained by a stronger psychological tendency in men to acquire resources.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Olmo R. van den Akker","Marcel A. L. M. van Assen","Mark van Vugt","Jelte M. Wicherts"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102329","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bf4b519011001c1b","title":"Price competition and reputation in markets for experience goods: an experimental study","abstract":"We experimentally examine the effects of price competition in markets for experience goods where sellers can build up reputations for quality. We compare price competition to monopolistic markets and markets where prices are exogenously fixed. Although oligopolies benefit consumers regardless of whether prices are fixed or endogenously chosen, we find that price competition lowers efficiency as consumers pay too little attention to reputation for quality. This provides empirical support to recent models in behavioral industrial organization that assume that consumers may, with increasing complexity of the marketplace, focus on selected dimensions of products .","wordCount":94,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Steffen Huck","Gabriele K. Lünser","Jean‐Robert Tyran"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12120","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bf4dc40324929bc6","title":"Consciously stochastic in preference reversals","abstract":"Stochastic choice, the act of choosing differently in repeated decisions, can be a conscious decision made by individuals who are aware of their inability to make a definitive choice. To examine the prevalence and implications of conscious stochastic choice, we developed a novel method and implemented it in a preference reversal experiment: In each valuation choice between the bet and a varying reference option, subjects could either pay a small cost to select a specific option or opt for a free randomization choice where a computer randomly selects an option. Our findings revealed that the majority of subjects exhibited conscious stochastic choice, and further that their choices were significantly affected by the elicitation procedures.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Shi Liu","Jianying Qiu","Jiangyan Li","Frank Bohn"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09430-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bf74e1966e2b844c","title":"Assortative labor matching, city size, and the education level of workers","abstract":"We investigate the heterogeneity of assortative labor matching with respect to geography, skills, and tasks. Our contribution is to separate plant quality by education level and occupation tasks using the AKM-model. We introduce a geology-related instrument to analyze the city effect and address limited mobility bias. Using rich administrative worker-plant dataset for Norway, we show that matching of the college educated have a strong city effect. The IV estimates indicate that a doubling of city size increases the correlation between worker and plant quality by 9 percentage points. A wage decomposition shows that matching accounts for 22% of the urban wage premium adjusted for sorting. In terms of occupations, better matching in cities is observed only for non-routine abstract tasks.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Stefan Leknes","Jørn Rattsø","Hildegunn E. Stokke"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103806","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bf75b7e18369a91d","title":"Testing structural benefit transfer: The role of income inequality","abstract":"How the valuation of environmental goods is related to income is a key question for economics, but the role of income inequality is often neglected. We study how income inequality affects the international transfer of the estimated value of environmental goods from a study to a policy site—a practice called value or benefit transfer. Specifically, we apply theory-driven, structural transfer factors to test whether adjusting for income inequality affects errors made in benefit transfer, drawing on a multi-country valuation study on water quality improvement. Our convergent validity analysis shows that the structural income inequality adjustment reduces benefit transfer errors by between 1.5 and 1.8 percentage points on average across all transfers. We therefore find that adjusting for income inequality offers only a minor improvement of benefit transfers as compared to adjusting for differences in mean income. Overall, our results shed light on the potential of structural approaches to benefit transfer for environmental valuation and public policy appraisal.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Jasper N. Meya","Moritz A. Drupp","Nick Hanley"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101217","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bfa03b1c8cb21d6a","title":"Railways, Growth, and Industrialization in a Developing German Economy, 1829–1910","abstract":"This paper studies the average and heterogeneous effects of railway access on parish-level population, income, and industrialization in Württemberg during the Industrial Revolution. We show that the growth-enhancing effect of the railway was much greater in parishes that were larger and more industrial at the outset. However, such early industrial parishes were rare in the relatively poor German state. This might explain why we find small average growth effects, which only increase at the end of the nineteenth century. Heterogeneity in the impact of the railway thus increased economic disparities within Württemberg and contributed to the state’s relatively sluggish growth.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Sebastian Braun","Richard Franke"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050722000377","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bfa68739662942ed","title":"Rally post-terrorism","abstract":"This study examines whether the “rally ’round the flag” phenomenon is present after terrorist attacks, and investigates explanations for this increase in confidence in national political institutions and approval of the country leader’s job performance. I exploit variations in terrorist occurrences and results (success or failure) across subnational EU regions where at least one attack took place during the data period. I show empirically that both terrorist occurrences and results are plausibly exogenous to the prior political and economic climate. Conducting a difference-in-differences analysis, I compare changes in political confidence and approval among individuals who were exposed to an attack in their region with those who were not. Utilizing another more sophisticated identification, I also compare such political changes after successful attacks with those after failed attacks. I find that post-terrorism, individual political confidence and support significantly increased by more than 10 percentage points, and that this political increment was over 5 percentage points after successful attacks relative to failed ones. Such rally effects were temporary and faded away within a year. Furthermore, I explore various potential channels suggesting patriotism and civic engagement as mechanisms while rejecting perceived economic capture and political acquisition as alternative explanations.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Shuai Chen"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-025-01106-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bfaee4908dadd7f9","title":"Financial inclusion and poverty: a tale of forty-five thousand households","abstract":"Using a new nationally representative survey data covering approximately 45,000 Indian households, we examine the effects of financial inclusion on poverty. We construct a multidimensional indicator of financial inclusion and examine the effects of financial inclusion on multiple measures of poverty including the household Poverty Probability Index (PPI), household deprivation scores, and poverty line. We find that financial inclusion has a strong poverty-reducing effect. This finding is consistent across the different measures of poverty used, and alternative ways of measures financial inclusion. These results underpin the importance of financial inclusion and the need for its promotion across countries.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Sefa Awaworyi Churchill","Vijaya B. Marisetty"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1678732","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bfb1835f88950059","title":"Cash inflow and trading horizon in asset markets","abstract":"It is conjectured that one of the major ingredients of historic financial bubbles was the inflow of money in various forms. We run 36 laboratory asset markets to investigate the joint effect of cash inflow and trading horizon on price efficiency. We show that markets with cash inflow and long trading horizon exhibit bubbles and crashes. We also observe that markets with extended trading horizon but without cash inflow and markets with shorter trading horizon do not trigger bubbles. Finally, we report that beliefs about prices and, importantly, about (constant) fundamentals follow bubble patterns as well.","wordCount":96,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Michael Razen","Jürgen Huber","Michael Kirchler"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.11.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bfbacbba0bf7b1c8","title":"The impact of public employment: Evidence from Bonn","abstract":"This paper evaluates the impact of changes in public employment on private sector activity using the creation of the new West German government in Bonn in the wake of the Second World War as a source of exogenous variation. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a simple economic geography model in which public sector employment affects private sector employment through its impact on wages and house prices and also through potential productivity and amenity spillovers to the private sector. We find that relative to a control group of cities, Bonn experiences a substantial increase in public employment. However, this results in only modest increases in private sector employment with each additional public sector job destroying around 0.2 jobs in industry and creating just over one additional job in other parts of the private sector. We show how our model can explain this finding and provide several pieces of evidence for the mechanisms emphasized by the model.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Sascha O. Becker","Stephan Heblich","Daniel Sturm"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103291","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bfc48ff7df7342c3","title":"Learning in a hedonic framework: Valuing brownfield remediation","abstract":"Incomplete information in property value hedonic models can bias estimates of marginal willingness to pay (MWTP). Using brownfield remediation as an application, this article recovers hedonic values from a dynamic neighborhood choice framework that allows households to learn about brownfield contamination in a Bayesian fashion before choosing where to live. I find that ignoring learning yields nontrivial biases to the MWTP estimate. This has important implications for hedonic valuation if agents are imperfectly informed. Estimates are used to calculate information's value had it been withheld from the public and to assess heterogeneity in information's value along site and homebuyer demographics.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Lala Ma"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bfcee04f27a5acb9","title":"Risk, success, and failure: female entrepreneurship in late Victorian and Edwardian England","abstract":"This article analyses female entrepreneurship in late Victorian and Edwardian England. Traditional views on female entrepreneurship in nineteenth‐ and twentieth‐century England point towards a decline in the number and relevance of women as business owners in comparison to the eighteenth century, and their retreat into a ‘separate sphere’ away from the world of trade and production. Recent studies, however, have deeply challenged this view, suggesting that women still played an important role as entrepreneurs during industrialization and beyond. Nevertheless, a number of questions remain unanswered with regard to the features of female entrepreneurship during these phases of British history, and issues such as scale of operation, attitude to risk, credit structure, and managerial styles are still widely debated. Using original sources, this article provides a novel view on these issues, analysing female entrepreneurship from the perspective of bankruptcy. Analysing statistics on women's bankruptcy derived from Board of Trade reports, as well as a sample of archival cases, this article argues that overall female business owners traded in ways similar to their male counterparts in terms of business size, risk‐taking, and, eventually, success.","wordCount":182,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Jennifer Aston","Paolo Di Martino"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12481","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-bfd167754d857166","title":"Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments","abstract":"Our society faces a dilemma. While continued economic growth is ecologically unsustainable, low or negative rates of economic growth are accompanied by adverse social impacts. Hence there is a need for macroeconomic tools that can help identify socially sustainable post-growth pathways. The emerging field of ecological macroeconomics aims to address this need and features a number of new macroeconomic modelling approaches. This article provides (1) a review of modelling developments in ecological macroeconomics, based on the literature and interviews with researchers, and (2) an analysis of how the different models incorporate policy themes from the post-growth literature. Twenty-two ecological macroeconomic models were analysed and compared to eight policy themes. It was found that environmental interactions and the monetary system were treated most comprehensively. Themes of income inequality, work patterns, indicators of well-being, and disaggregated production were addressed with less detail, while alternative business models and cross-scale interactions were hardly addressed. Overall, the combination of input-output analysis with stock-flow consistent modelling was identified as a promising avenue for developing macroeconomic models for a post-growth economy. However, due to the wide interpretation of what “the economy” entails, future research will benefit from employing a range of approaches.","wordCount":195,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Lukas Hardt","Daniel W. O’Neill"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.12.027","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bfd4a8961b740726","title":"Share capitalism and worker wellbeing","abstract":"We show that worker wellbeing is determined not only by the amount of compensation workers receive but also by how compensation is determined. While previous theoretical and empirical work has often been preoccupied with individual performance-related pay, we find that the receipt of a range of group-performance schemes (profit shares, group bonuses and share ownership) is associated with higher job satisfaction. This holds conditional on wage levels, so that pay methods are associated with greater job satisfaction in addition to that coming from higher wages. We use a variety of methods to control for unobserved individual and job-specific characteristics. We suggest that half of the share-capitalism effect is accounted for by employees reciprocating for the \"gift\"; we also show that share capitalism helps dampen the negative wellbeing effects of what we typically think of as \"bad\" aspects of job quality.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Alex Bryson","Andrew E. Clark","Richard B. Freeman","Colin Green"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2016.09.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bfd4b2e6c09ae32f","title":"Coase Lecture ‐ The Inverted‐U Relationship Between Credit Access and Productivity Growth","abstract":"We identify two counteracting effects of credit access on productivity growth: on the one hand, better access to credit makes it easier for entrepreneurs to innovate; on the other hand, better credit access allows less efficient incumbent firms to remain longer on the market, thereby discouraging entry of new and potentially more efficient innovators. We first develop a simple model of firm dynamics and innovation‐based growth with credit constraints, where the above two counteracting effects generate an inverted‐U relationship between credit access and productivity growth. Then we test our theory on a comprehensive French manufacturing firm‐level dataset. We first show evidence of an inverted‐U relationship between credit constraints and productivity growth when we aggregate our data at the sectoral level. We then move to firm‐level analysis, and show that incumbent firms with easier access to credit experience higher productivity growth, but that they also experience lower exit rates, particularly the least productive firms among them. To support these findings, we exploit the 2012 Eurosystem's Additional Credit Claims programme as a quasi‐experiment that generated an exogenous extra supply of credits for a subset of incumbent firms.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Philippe Aghion","Antonin Bergeaud","Gilbert Cette","Rémy Lecat","Hélène Maghin"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12297","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-bfd6f8e47ea06092","title":"Does Pricing Carbon Mitigate Climate Change? Firm-Level Evidence from the European Union Emissions Trading System","abstract":"In theory, market-based regulatory instruments correct market failures at least cost. However, evidence on their efficacy remains scarce. Using administrative data, we estimate that, on average, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)—the world’s first and largest market-based climate policy—induced regulated manufacturing firms to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 14–16% with no detectable contractions in economic activity. We find no evidence of outsourcing to unregulated firms or markets; instead, firms made targeted investments, reducing the emissions intensity of production. These results indicate that the EU ETS induced global emissions reductions, a necessary and sufficient condition for mitigating climate change. We show that the absence of any negative economic effects can be rationalized in a model where pricing the externality induces firms to make fixed-cost investments in energy-saving capital that reduce marginal variable costs.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Jonathan Colmer","Ralf Martin","Mirabelle Muûls","Ulrich J. Wagner"],"year":2024,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae055","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bfda5c179136879d","title":"Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis","abstract":"This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to study the impact of uncertainty shocks under varying degrees of employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.","wordCount":102,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Andreas Dibiasi","Samad Sarferaz"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104383","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bfdb8f8424aea7e8","title":"Central bank digital currency and privacy: A randomized survey experiment","abstract":"Privacy protection is among the key features to consider in the design of central bank digital currency (CBDC). Using a nationally representative sample of over 3,500 participants, we conduct a randomized online survey experiment to examine how the willingness to use CBDC as a means of payment varies with the degree of privacy protection and information provision on the privacy benefits of using CBDC. We find that both factors significantly increase participants’ willingness to use CBDC by up to 64% when purchasing privacy‐sensitive products. Our findings provide useful insights regarding the design and the public's adoption of CBDC.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Syngjoo Choi","Bongseop Kim","Young Sik Kim","Ohik Kwon"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12746","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bfe87eb2aa46ca20","title":"Discrete choice and rational inattention: A general equivalence result","abstract":"This article establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matějka and McKay (2015) showed that when information costs are modeled using the Shannon entropy, the choice probabilities in the rational inattention (RI) model take the multinomial logit form. We show that, for one given prior over states, RI choice probabilities may take the form of any additive random utility discrete choice model (ARUM) when the information cost is a Bregman information, a class defined in this article. The prior information of the rationally inattentive agent is summarized in a constant vector of utilities in the corresponding ARUM.","wordCount":101,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Mogens Fosgerau","Emerson Melo","André de Palma","Matthew Shum"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12469","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-bfeaf1c839bd415b","title":"Mass protests, security-elite defection, and revolution","abstract":"Political regimes will survive even intense mass protests as long as the security elite abstains from defecting. However, empirical and theoretical work has shown that coups, as the active form of security-elite defection, become more likely under mass protests. Still, many regimes collapsed under mass protests without a coup ever happening. In these no-coup situations, we demonstrate, using case studies, that the security elite did in fact abandon loyalty to the regime, albeit in a passive fashion. We develop a model that explains why mass protests can induce the security-elite members to coordinate on passive security-elite defection, thus paving the way for a full-fledged revolution. With our model, we work out the parameters under which passive security-elite defection is likely. Finally, by systematically relating our model to our cases, we demonstrate how mass protests triggered security-elite defection in a number of particular historical cases of revolution.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Thomas Apolte"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bff16b5ff728a1b8","title":"The round number heuristic and entrepreneur crowdfunding performance","abstract":"We document a novel pattern that campaign goal amounts set by entrepreneurs on Kickstarter exhibit clear clustering at round numbers. We propose that the round number heuristic, a tendency to adopt round numbers as cognitive shortcuts when facing complicated and uncertain situations, may explain the clustering pattern and predict campaign outcomes. Based on 162, 863 campaigns between 2009 and 2017, we find a negative relation between the use of round goal amounts and the likelihood of campaign success. Our findings suggest that setting a round number goal conveys useful information about entrepreneur quality that could be used by campaign backers or platforms.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Tse‐Chun Lin","Vesa Pursiainen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101894","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-bff3477e91c9c1b8","title":"Social Networks, Reputation, and Commitment: Evidence From a Savings Monitors Experiment","abstract":"We conduct an experiment to study whether individuals save more when information about the progress toward their self‐set savings goal is shared with another village member (a “monitor”). We develop a reputational framework to explore how a monitor's effectiveness depends on her network position. Savers who care about whether others perceive them as responsible should save more with central monitors, who more widely disseminate information, and proximate monitors, who pass information to individuals with whom the saver interacts frequently. We randomly assign monitors to savers and find that monitors on average increase savings by 36%. Consistent with the framework, more central and proximate monitors lead to larger increases in savings. Moreover, information flows through the network, with 63% of monitors telling others about the saver's progress. Fifteen months after the conclusion of the experiment, other villagers have updated their beliefs about the saver's responsibility in response to the intervention.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Emily Breza","Arun G. Chandrasekhar"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13683","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bff3e904cf5e87ad","title":"Parental Beliefs about Returns to Educational Investments—The Later the Better?","abstract":"In this paper, we study parental beliefs about the returns to parental investments made during different periods of childhood. Using two independent samples, we document that parents perceive the returns to different late investments to be higher than the returns to early investments, and that they perceive investments in different time periods as substitutes rather than complements. We show that parental beliefs about the returns to investments vary substantially across the population and that individual beliefs are predictive of actual investment decisions. Moreover, we document that parental beliefs about the productivity of investments differ significantly across socioeconomic groups. Perceived returns to early parental investments are positively associated with household income, thereby potentially contributing to the intergenerational persistence in earnings.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Teodora Boneva","Christopher Rauh"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-bffb20b5490a80ba","title":"Does quantity matter for distance decay? Evidence from two choice experiments on urban green","abstract":"The value of environmental goods to individuals often depends on spatial features such as distance. The most common approach of accounting for distance decay is to model utility as some function of distance. It has been suggested to instead model the value as a function of the quantity of an environmental good within a certain distance. We develop three novel quantity-within-distance models that may be more suited for evaluating quantity changes in an environmental good. We argue that these models could capture spatial patterns better than distance-based models when i) secondary benefits are a relevant source of welfare, ii) the environmental change is spatially scattered, iii) the distribution of the endowment, i.e. the present availability of the environmental good, matters. Using data from choice experiments on the extension of green space and trees in two urban areas, we compare required assumptions, model fit, and size and precision of aggregated welfare estimates. Our results indicate limited differences in model fit. However, the quantity-within-distance models consistently produce aggregate welfare estimates roughly half of common distance decay models and have narrower confidence intervals. While it is not possible to infer which is more accurate, the large differences can have considerable policy implications.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Malte Welling","Jette Bredahl Jacobsen","Søren Bøye Olsen","Thomas Lundhede"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101472","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c0025661a770b767","title":"Short-term Migration, Rural Public Works, and Urban Labor Markets: Evidence from India","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of India's rural public works program on rural-to-urban migration and urban labor markets. We find that seasonal migration from rural districts that implemented the program decreased relative to those that were selected to, but did not implement it. We use a gravity model and find that real wages rose faster in cities with higher predicted migration from program districts. Since most seasonal migrants work outside of their district, urban wage increases were not limited to program districts, and may have attracted migrants from nonprogram districts. Difference-in-differences may hence be biased. Structural estimates indeed suggest that migration decreased by 22% in program districts, but also increased by 5% in nonprogram districts. As a result, urban wages increased by only 0.5%, against 4.1% if the program had been implemented in all selected districts.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Clément Imbert","John Papp"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz009","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c00dd8d0d7e0a6ee","title":"A model of mobile app and ad platform markets","abstract":"The mobile application (app) economy comprises two distinct platform markets through which app developers generate revenue: app platform and ad platform markets. When developers monetize their apps by charging users (or through in-app advertising), they must pay commissions to the app platform (or ad platform). Both platform markets are interconnected, as developers choose which market to use for monetization (paid or ad-funded). The model shows that app and ad platforms are substitutes for app developers. Thus, an imbalance between app and ad commissions induces some developers to choose inefficient business models. For example, if the app commission is lower than the ad commission, some ad-friendly developers may choose the paid business model even though they could generate a greater surplus from advertising from a social welfare perspective. This finding highlights the benefits of distinct platforms setting similar commissions. The model is also used to evaluate the impact of a non-price strategy implemented by the app platform to limit the ability of app developers to monetize through advertising. The analysis shows that the app platform can use this non-price strategy to increase its demand at the expense of the ad platform.","wordCount":190,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Yusuke Zennyo"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103117","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c01a32eeaa76ddf6","title":"Reconstruction Aid, Public Infrastructure, and Economic Development: The Case of the Marshall Plan in Italy","abstract":"The Marshall Plan (1948-1952) was the largest aid transfer in history. This paper estimates its effects on Italy's postwar economic development. It exploits differences between Italian provinces in the value of reconstruction grants they received. Provinces that could modernize their infrastructure more quickly experienced higher increases in agricultural production, especially for perishable crops. In the same provinces, we observe larger investments in labor-saving machines, the entry of more firms into the industrial sector, and a larger expansion of the industrial and service workforces.","wordCount":83,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Nicola Bianchi","Michela Giorcelli"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050723000128","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c01bb9ba570b29b6","title":"Corruption and Entrepreneurship: Cross‐Country Evidence from Formal and Informal Sectors","abstract":"While the impact of institutional quality on formal entrepreneurial activity has been well documented in the literature, whether and to what extent corruption influences entrepreneurship in the informal sector is less forthcoming. In this article, we analyze the effect of corruption on entrepreneurship in the formal and informal sectors. Using unique cross‐country data on formal and informal entrepreneurship, we find that corruption deters entrepreneurship in the formal sector and promotes informal entrepreneurship. These results remain robust even after conducting a series of sensitivity analyses.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Aziz N. Berdiev","James W. Saunoris"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12250","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c0213d0be1538b16","title":"Forecasting with social media: Evidence from tweets on soccer matches","abstract":"Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a microblogging dictionary to analyze the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Alasdair Brown","Dooruj Rambaccussing","J. James Reade","Giambattista Rossi"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12506","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c02f72adea1a2618","title":"Environmental degradation and economic growth: Investigating linkages and potential pathways","abstract":"Concerns about the incessant rise in emissions and their attendant effects on climate change, which is ravaging the globe, are on the ascendency. The literature has almost concluded that economic activities and growth contribute significantly to environmental degradation. Despite the plethora of studies on the effect of economic growth on environmental degradation, empirical studies examining the reverse – i.e., how environmental degradation affects economic growth – are limited. However, the associated literature postulates that attaining economic growth is accompanied by increased environmental degradation. To guide the development of non-conflicting environmental and structural policies, this study examines whether the rise in environmental degradation is associated with economic growth. It also examines the potential channels through which environmental degradation could affect economic growth. Using a global panel comprising 140 countries from 1980 to 2021 and the two-step dynamic system-generalized method of moment technique to control endogeneity, the findings generally indicate a retarding effect of environmental degradation on economic growth. Further analysis, however, reveals that emissions exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth. However, ecological footprint indicators of environmental degradation have a U-shaped relationship with economic growth. Pathway analysis highlighted that health, foreign direct investment, and technological innovation are the potential channels through which environmental degradation could retard economic growth. The policy implications are discussed.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Alex O. Acheampong","Eric Evans Osei Opoku"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106734","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c0317fe958005efc","title":"Does economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. influence stock markets in China and India? Time-frequency evidence","abstract":"This paper uses continuous and discrete wavelet tools to evaluate the dynamic correlation and causality between the U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock markets in China and India from 1997 to 2018. The dynamic correlation in the time-frequency domain is obtained by continuous wavelet coherence, and the causality over time and frequencies is tested by the linear and non-linear Granger causality based on discrete wavelet transform. The results show that the interaction between EPU in the U.S. and stock returns in China and India is weak in the short term but gradually becomes stronger in the long term, especially when significant financial events occur. There is no Granger causality in the short term; however, there is unidirectional or bidirectional causality in the medium and long term. These conclusions may provide useful reference for policymakers and investors in Chinese and Indian stock markets to prevent cross-country risk contagion from the U.S.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Rong Li","Sufang Li","Di Yuan","Keming Yu"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1734182","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c036ce03f8906bd2","title":"No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations","abstract":"Using a survey of French manufacturing firms, we study how firms’ expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms’ aggregate expectations respond persistently. This is consistent with “island” models in which firms use the local prices they observe to make inferences about broader aggregate conditions. These patterns are related to observable characteristics of firms and the industries in which they reside. Finally, we extend the analysis to firms’ expectations over their own future price changes and document how these respond to both industry and aggregate variation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Philippe Andrade","Olivier Coibion","Erwan Gautier","Yuriy Gorodnichenko"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.05.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c0383fb937e66643","title":"Automation and the displacement of labor by capital: Asset pricing theory and empirical evidence","abstract":"I examine the asset pricing implications of technological innovations that allow capital to displace labor: automation. I develop a theory in which firms with displaceable labor are negatively exposed to such technology shocks. In the model, firms optimally adopt technology to gain competitive advantage but in equilibrium competition erodes profits and decreases firm value. Empirically, I find that firms with high share of displaceable labor have negative exposure to technology shocks. A long-short portfolio sorted on this variable mimics macroeconomic measures of technology shocks. Negatively exposed firms earn a 4% annual return premium consistent with displacement risk from technological progress.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Jiří Knesl"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.11.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c03d463d81677999","title":"Land market distortions and aggregate agricultural productivity: Evidence from Guatemala","abstract":"Farm size and land allocation are important factors in explaining lagging agricultural productivity in developing countries. This paper examines the effect of land market imperfections on land allocation across farmers and aggregate agricultural productivity. We develop a theoretical framework to model the optimal size distribution of farms and assess to what extent market imperfections can explain non-optimal land allocation and output inefficiency. We measure these distortions for the case of Guatemala using agricultural census microdata. We find that due to land market imperfections aggregate output is 19% below its efficient level for both maize and beans and 31% below for coffee, which are three major crops produced nationwide. We also observe that areas with higher distortions show higher land price dispersion and less active rental markets. The degree of land market distortions across areas co-variate to some extent with road accessibility, ethnicity, and education.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Braulio Britos","Manuel A. Hernandez","Miguel Robles","Danilo Trupkin"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102787","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c03f2340d7178aa7","title":"Learning by searching: Spatial mismatches and imperfect information in Southern labor markets","abstract":"Youth unemployment remains extremely high throughout the developing world, at times coexisting with unmet demand for labor and high job turnover. We examine one possible explanation for this: spatial mismatches between jobs and job-seekers combined with high search costs can lead young job-seekers to have overly optimistic beliefs about their employment prospects. As a result, job-seekers under-search but also hold out for better jobs. Through a field experiment we find that reducing search costs through transport subsidies leads job-seekers to search more intensively and to adjust their beliefs in line with their search experience. When jobs fail to materialize immediately, job-seekers who believed that dropping CVs at prospective employers in the city centre was an effective search strategy become more impatient, they lower their reservation wage and they settle for low-paying jobs closer to home. This does not increase their likelihood of being employed, since nearby jobs are also scarce. These findings underscore both the importance and the complexity of the interaction between search costs and beliefs, and how they can lead to spatial and occupational mistargeting in the job search.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Abhijit Banerjee","Sandra Sequeira"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103111","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c046dd814b18cdd7","title":"Logs with Zeros? Some Problems and Solutions","abstract":"When studying an outcome Y that is weakly positive but can equal zero (e.g., earnings), researchers frequently estimate an average treatment effect (ATE) for a “log-like” transformation that behaves like log (Y) for large Y but is defined at zero (e.g., log (1 + Y), $\\operatorname{arcsinh}(Y)$). We argue that ATEs for log-like transformations should not be interpreted as approximating percentage effects, since unlike a percentage, they depend on the units of the outcome. In fact, we show that if the treatment affects the extensive margin, one can obtain a treatment effect of any magnitude simply by rescaling the units of Y before taking the log-like transformation. This arbitrary unit dependence arises because an individual-level percentage effect is not well-defined for individuals whose outcome changes from zero to nonzero when receiving treatment, and the units of the outcome implicitly determine how much weight the ATE for a log-like transformation places on the extensive margin. We further establish a trilemma: when the outcome can equal zero, there is no treatment effect parameter that is an average of individual-level treatment effects, unit invariant, and point identified. We discuss several alternative approaches that may be sensible in settings with an intensive and extensive margin, including (i) expressing the ATE in levels as a percentage (e.g., using Poisson regression), (ii) explicitly calibrating the value placed on the intensive and extensive margins, and (iii) estimating separate effects for the two margins (e.g., using Lee bounds). We illustrate these approaches in three empirical applications.","wordCount":247,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Jiafeng Chen","Jonathan Roth"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad054","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c05ba5273561e897","title":"Revealing risky mistakes through revisions","abstract":"We argue that a choice that is modified, absent any informational change, is revealed to have been a mistake. In an experiment, we allow subjects to choose from budgets over binary lotteries. To identify mistakes, which we interpret as deviations from an underlying “true” preference, we allow subjects to revise a subset of their initial choices. The set of revised decisions improves under several standard definitions of optimality. These mistakes are prevalent: subjects modify over 75% of their initial choices when given the chance. Subjects make larger mistakes when inexperienced and when choosing over lotteries with small probabilities of winning.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Zachary Breig","P. A. Feldman"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09429-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c06816b2cc1d90e2","title":"The Effect of Corporate Taxation on Investment and Financial Policy: Evidence from the DPAD","abstract":"This study estimates the investment, financing, and payout responses to variation in a firm's effective corporate income tax rate in the United States. I exploit quasi-experimental variation created by the Domestic Production Activities Deduction, a corporate tax expenditure created in 2005. A 1 percentage point reduction in tax rates increases investment by 4.7 percent of installed capital, increases payouts by 0.3 percent of sales, and decreases debt by 5.3 percent of total assets. These estimates suggest that lower corporate tax rates and faster accelerated depreciation each stimulate a similar increase in investment, per dollar in lost revenue.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Eric Ohrn"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150378","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c06a4f6f78f883f1","title":"Adjusted net savings needs further adjusting: Reassessing human and resource factors in sustainability measurement","abstract":"We build a theoretical model of optimal, closed-economy growth of production and consumption, including inputs of human and knowledge capital and growing natural resources, and give two calibrations of it to the global economy's approximately exponential growth during 1995–2014. We thereby show that the World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) measure of an economy's sustainability, which has some practical and theoretical advantages over change in wealth, the Bank's preferred measure, ideally needs further adjusting. Our model includes omitted or undervalued estimates of the benefits of human and knowledge capital investment, net resource growth, and productivity growth, and the cost of capitals dilution by population growth. Together these raise estimated, global ANS about 10 percentage points above the Bank's estimate, to equal their growth rate times total wealth, but our adjustments could be negative overall for some countries. By reclassifying about 18% of output from consumption to human and knowledge capital investments, our second calibration needs only 0.3 %/yr of exogenous productivity growth to explain global consumption growth observed during 1995–2014. Though our model omits environmental costs and thus ignores long-run sustainability issues, our adjustments suggest desirable though difficult changes that could improve World Bank ANS as a comparative sustainability indicator.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["John C.V. Pezzey"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102984","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c07732c076f4bd48","title":"Sex, Race, and Job Satisfaction Among Highly Educated Workers","abstract":"There has been a considerable amount of work focusing on job satisfaction and sex, generally finding that women are more satisfied than men despite having objectively worse job conditions. But there is little evidence on whether job satisfaction differs by race or ethnicity. We use data from the 2010 National Survey of College Graduates to examine the relation between job satisfaction and race and ethnicity among Asian, black, Hispanic/Latino, and white workers. Overall job satisfaction does not differ by sex among college graduates. Relative to white workers of the same sex, Asian and black workers are far less satisfied. The lower satisfaction of Asian and black workers relative to white workers is not explained by immigrant status, job match, or other individual or job characteristics.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Joni Hersch","Jean Xiao"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12133","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c09bd73666f9cf09","title":"Strategic mistakes","abstract":"To study the equilibrium implications of decision frictions, we introduce a new class of control costs in continuum-player, continuum-action games in which agents interact via an aggregate of the actions of others. The costs that we study accommodate a rich class of decision frictions, including ex post misoptimization, imperfect ex ante planning, cognitive constraints that depend endogenously on the behavior of others, and consideration sets. We provide primitive conditions such that equilibria exist, are unique, are efficient, and feature monotone comparative statics for action distributions, aggregates, and the size of agents' mistakes. We apply the model to make robust equilibrium predictions in a monetary business-cycle model of price-setting with planning frictions and a model of consumption and savings during a liquidity trap when endogenous stress worsens decisions.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Joel P. Flynn","Karthik Sastry"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105704","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c09ed74f9432116e","title":"CFO social capital, liquidity management, and the market value of cash✰","abstract":"We find that firms with CFOs who have extensive social connections within the finance industry hold less precautionary cash. CFO connections matter more than CEO connections, reflecting the preeminence of CFOs among C-level executives in cash management and negotiating access to corporate finance. Firms reduce the proportion of assets held in cash by seven percentage points in the two years following CFO turnover and the appointment of a CFO with finance industry connections. The stock market valuation of incremental cash holdings of firms with well-connected CFOs is lower than for other firms, consistent with investor recognition of CFO social capital as an alternative means to address constraints on external capital.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Christopher W. Anderson","M. Babajide Wintoki","Yaoyi Xi"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107163","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c0a493b198ad55dd","title":"Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply–Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect","abstract":"We investigate the external validity of local average treatment effects (LATEs), specifically Angrist and Evans’s use of same sex of the two first children as an instrumental variable for the effect of fertility on labor supply. We estimate their specification in 139 country-year censuses using Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample–International data. We compare each country-year’s actual LATE to the extrapolated LATE from other country-years. We find that, with a sufficiently large reference sample, we extrapolate the treatment effect reasonably well, but the degree of accuracy depends on the extent of covariate similarity between the target and reference settings.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["James Bisbee","Rajeev Dehejia","Cristian Pop-Eleches","Cyrus Samii"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691280","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c0a6728f15c04367","title":"An investigation of time preferences, life expectancy, and annuity versus lump sum choices: Can smoking harm long-term saving decisions?","abstract":"We exploit the fact that Israeli pension insurance policies do not take health conditions or smoking status into account in annuity pricing to investigate the potential effect of being a smoker on retirement payout choices. Contrary to the idea that smokers have higher discount rates (and thus should prefer the lump sum option), and even though the insurance pricing mechanism means that smokers would be offered the same annuity as nonsmokers (all else equal), we find that smokers do not prefer the lump sum option. We offer and test several potential explanations for our findings: illusions regarding life expectancy, self-control, and advantageous selection.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Abigail Hurwitz","Orly Sade"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.05.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c0b32da6c8394cb1","title":"What fraction of antebellum US national product did the enslaved produce?","abstract":"This article evaluates the high-profile claim that enslaved African-Americans produced over 50 percent of US national product in the pre-Civil War period. The accounting exercise shows the fraction was closer to (and indeed likely slightly below) the share of the population, that is, about 12.6 percent in 1860. The enslaved population had higher rates of labor force participation, but they were also forced to work in sectors–agriculture and domestic service—with below average output per worker. The economic surplus generated by the enslaved was due chiefly to the low value of the very basic consumption bundle provided rather than to exceptionally high values of production per capita.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Paul W. Rhode"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101552","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c0b6cc33f1da3516","title":"The Value of Incumbency When Platforms Face Heterogeneous Customers","abstract":"We study competition for the market in a dynamic model with network externalities, focusing on the efficiency of market outcomes. We propose a representation of the strategic advantages of incumbency and embed it in a dynamic framework with heterogeneous consumers. Then, we completely identify the conditions under which inefficient equilibria with several platforms emerge at equilibrium; explore the reasons why these inefficient equilibria arise; and compute the value of incumbency and analyze why static models generally exaggerate it.","wordCount":78,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Gary Biglaiser","Jacques Crémer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180225","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c0c4a35d6e361d29","title":"The Rise of Working Mothers and the 1975 Earned Income Tax Credit","abstract":"The rise of working mothers radically changed the US economy and the role of women in society. In one of the first studies of the 1975 introduction of the Earned Income Tax Credit, I find that this program increased maternal employment by 6 percent, representing 1 million mothers and an elasticity of 0.58. The EITC may help explain why the US has long had such a high fraction of working mothers despite few childcare subsidies or parental leave policies. I also find suggestive evidence that this influx of working mothers affected social attitudes and led to higher approval of working women.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Jacob Bastian"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180039","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c0cbb1f04d0e0799","title":"A Portrait of Trade in Value-Added over Four Decades","abstract":"We combine data on trade, production, and input use to document changes in the value-added content of trade between 1970 and 2009. The ratio of value-added to gross exports fell by roughly 10 percentage points worldwide. The ratio declined 20 percentage points in manufacturing, but rose in nonmanufacturing sectors. Declines also differ across countries and trade partners: they are larger for fast-growing countries, for nearby trade partners, and among partners that adopt regional trade agreements. Using a multisector structural gravity model with input-output linkages, we show that changes in trade frictions play a dominant role in explaining all these facts.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Robert C. Johnson","Guillermo Noguera"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00665","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c0ce686ff81b15d6","title":"Welfare analysis of the vehicle quota system in china","abstract":"This article presents a welfare analysis of the vehicle quota system of Shanghai, China. The empirical findings suggest that the quota system leads to both welfare loss as a result of reduction in vehicle transactions and welfare gain because of less externality of auto consumption. The net effect depends on the shadow price of the marginal externality, the assumption of vehicle lifetime, and market conditions such as consumers' intrinsic preference for vehicles. Compared to a progressive tax system, the quota system is less effective in vehicle control but more efficient in improving social welfare.","wordCount":94,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Junji Xiao","Xiaolan Zhou","Weimin Hu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12229","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c0d46877c06b0157","title":"The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth","abstract":"In 1960, 94 percent of doctors and lawyers were white men. By 2010, the fraction was just 62 percent. Similar changes in other highly‐skilled occupations have occurred throughout the U.S. economy during the last 50 years. Given that the innate talent for these professions is unlikely to have changed differently across groups, the change in the occupational distribution since 1960 suggests that a substantial pool of innately talented women and black men in 1960 were not pursuing their comparative advantage. We examine the effect on aggregate productivity of the convergence in the occupational distribution between 1960 and 2010 through the prism of a Roy model. Across our various specifications, between 20% and 40% of growth in aggregate market output per person can be explained by the improved allocation of talent.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Chang‐Tai Hsieh","Erik Hurst","Charles I. Jones","Peter J. Klenow"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11427","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c0ef116a2d41fe2c","title":"Managerial ability and corporate greenhouse gas emissions","abstract":"Top managers are responsible for important decisions and their efficient implementation. Therefore, higher ability is more likely to lead to effective practice and favourable firm outcomes. This paper examines the association between managerial ability and corporate greenhouse gas emissions. The results suggest that firms with more able managers have lower greenhouse gas emissions. The disaggregation of total greenhouse gas emissions into Scope 1 emissions and Scope 2 emissions shows that managerial ability is negatively associated with both components. The results hold while controlling for various firm and country-level attributes and econometric specifications mitigating endogeneity concerns.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Chrysovalantis Gaganis","Emilios Galariotis","Fotios Pasiouras","Menelaos Tasiou"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.044","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c0f3b1c71dac8315","title":"Evolving wars of attrition","abstract":"This paper models a war of attrition that evolves over time. Two players fight over a prize until one surrenders. The flow costs of fighting depend on a state variable that is public but changes stochastically as the war unfolds. In the unique equilibrium, each player surrenders when the state becomes adverse enough; for intermediate states, both players fight on. In an extension, the baseline model is augmented to allow for unilateral concessions of part of the prize. Such concessions can be beneficial if they disproportionately sap the opponent's incentive to fight. The evolving war of attrition with concessions yields predictions regarding delay and the eventual division of the prize that differ from conventional models of bargaining as well as reputational wars of attrition.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Germán Gieczewski"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.105967","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c0f5ec712905b7cf","title":"One Markup to Rule Them All: Taxation by Liquor Pricing Regulation","abstract":"Commodity taxation often involves uniform tax rates. We use alcohol laws that tax differentiated spirits with a comprehensive uniform markup to evaluate redistribution generated by such simple tax policy. We document preference heterogeneity among consumers, variation in product demand elasticities, and market power among producers with heterogeneous product portfolios. Relative to more flexible product-level markups recognizing demand heterogeneity and strategic price responses of firms, we find that the uniform markup underprices less elastic spirits, implicitly subsidizing low-income and less educated residents. The uniform markup grants additional market power to small specialized firms whose product positioning benefits from the policy.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Eugenio J. Miravete","Katja Seim","Jeff Thurk"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180155","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c100f064d49136af","title":"Women’s empowerment in East Africa: Development of a cross-country comparable measure","abstract":"Women’s empowerment is an indicator of social change and a priority of the Sustainable Development Goals. Debate continues on what domains constitute women’s empowerment and how to measure empowerment across countries. Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are the most widely available source of data on women’s empowerment. However, measurement invariance often is assumed, but not tested. We used DHS data from Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda to test factor structure and measurement invariance of women’s empowerment among married women ages 15–49. Factor analysis confirmed a three-latent-domain model of women’s empowerment in each country capturing women’s human/social assets, gender attitudes related to wife abuse, and women’s participation in household decisions. Multi-country confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) identified an invariant three-factor model of women’s empowerment and a subset of country-specific items. Our results offer a standardized, invariant measure of women’s empowerment that can be applied to monitor women’s empowerment cross-nationally in East Africa, and possibly beyond.","wordCount":154,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Stephanie Spaid Miedema","Regine Haardörfer","Amy Girard","Kathryn M. Yount"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.031","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c107e2566fc99161","title":"Teacher turnover: Effects, mechanisms and organisational responses","abstract":"This paper contributes to the understanding of the causal relationship between teacher turnover and student performance. We extend this research by examining the mechanisms through which turnover affects student learning, and by providing evidence on how schools respond to mitigate the disruptive effects of turnover. Using administrative data covering all state-school, age-16 students and their teachers in England, we find that a higher teacher entry rate has a small but significant negative effect on students’ final qualifications from compulsory-age schooling. This is the first study to document that the lack of school-specific human capital in incoming teachers is the main mechanism through which turnover disrupts student performance. We also find evidence that schools mitigate the effects of turnover by assigning new teachers away from high-risk student grades.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Stephen Gibbons","Vincenzo Scrutinio","Shqiponja Telhaj"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102079","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c10cf5bf6d4edac1","title":"What is the value of sustainably-produced rice? Consumer evidence from experimental auctions in Vietnam","abstract":"Little is known about the value of sustainably-produced rice and incentive mechanisms for the adoption of sustainable production standards throughout rice value chains in Southeast Asia. This study tests the feasibility of a market-based incentive mechanism by eliciting consumers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for rice produced and labeled under a national sustainable production standard in the South of Vietnam through experimental auctions. Domestic consumers are willing to pay a 9% price premium for certified sustainably-produced rice. This premium gradually increases up to 33% when incremental levels of information on certification and traceability are provided. Consumers willing to pay premiums for sustainably-produced rice are more health-conscious, have better knowledge of and greater trust in food quality certification for rice, and tend to be more environmentally conscious and to read food labels before purchasing. Findings suggest that sustainable production labels for rice should be accompanied by supplementary information on certification and traceability to increase consumers’ awareness and appreciation of sustainably-produced rice. Promoting certified sustainably-produced rice hence crucially hinges on strengthening consumers’ knowledge of and trust in food quality certification. Communication strategies are recommended to focus on the environmental and health benefits of sustainably-produced rice.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Nguyen H.D. My","Matty Demont","Ellen J. Van Loo","Annalyn de Guia","Pieter Rutsaert","Trần Hữu Tuấn","Wim Verbeke"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.08.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c12492adcec2591c","title":"Fintech and big tech credit: Drivers of the growth of digital lending","abstract":"Fintech and big tech companies are making rapid inroads into credit markets. We hand construct a global database of fintech and big tech lending volumes for 79 countries over 2013–2018. Using a panel regression analysis, we find these new forms of digital lending are larger in countries with higher GDP per capita (albeit at a declining rate), where banking sector mark-ups are higher, and where banking regulation is less stringent. We also find that these alternative forms of credit are more developed where the ease of doing business is greater, investor protection disclosure and the efficiency of the judicial system are more advanced, and where bond and equity markets are more developed. Overall, fintech and big tech credit seem to complement other forms of credit, rather than substitute for them.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Giulio Cornelli","Jon Frost","Leonardo Gambacorta","P. Raghavendra Rau","Robert L. Wardrop","Tania Ziegler"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106742","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c12892d9bc178619","title":"Young versus old politicians and public spending priorities","abstract":"Do young politicians prioritize other types of municipal spending than old politicians? We study this question using hand-collected candidate-level data on municipal elections (1996–2020), along with detailed administrative data on municipal spending in Bavaria. Our identification strategy makes use of within-party candidate-level races for marginal seats. Our findings indicate that municipalities with a higher proportion of young councilors allocate more resources to social spending. Further analysis reveals that this social spending increase is primarily driven by the expansion of public child care. Exploring mechanisms, we find evidence suggesting that young councilors affect policy choices indirectly through between- and within-party bargaining.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Thushyanthan Baskaran","Zohal Hessami","Sebastian Schirner"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.07.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c130881f378b9017","title":"The bad consequences of teamwork","abstract":"People are rather dishonest when working on collaborative tasks. We experimentally study whether this is driven by the collaborative situation or by mere exposure to dishonest norms. In the collaborative treatment, two participants in a pair receive a payoff (equal to the reported outcome) only if both report the same die-roll outcome. In the norm exposure treatment, participants receive the same information regarding their partner’s action as in the collaborative treatment, but receive payoffs based only on their own reports. We find that average dishonesty is similarly high with and without collaboration, but the frequency of dyads in which both players are honest is lower in collaboration than in the norm exposure setting.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Ivan Soraperra","Ori Weisel","Ro’i Zultan","Sys Kochavi","Margarita Leib","Hadar Shalev","Shaul Shalvi"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c135cb1bda19fc96","title":"Bamboo Beating Bandits: Conflict, Inequality, and Vulnerability in the Political Ecology of Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh","abstract":"Bangladesh contributes little to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Based on semi-structured research interviews as a conduit to a literature review, this paper shows how the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment impede the vitality of its climate change adaptation efforts. Enclosure refers to when adaptation projects transfer public assets into private hands or expand the roles of private actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when adaptation projects limit access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when adaptation projects intrude on biodiversity areas or contribute to other forms of environmental degradation. Entrenchment refers to when adaptation projects aggravate the disempowerment of women and minorities, or worsen concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In the case of Bangladeshi, climate change policies implemented under the country’s National Adaptation Program of Action have enabled elites to capture land through public servants, the military, and even gangs carrying bamboo sticks. Exclusionary forms of adaptation planning exist at both the national and local scales. Climate protection measures have encroached upon village property, char (public) land, forests, farms, and other public commons. Most egregiously, community coping strategies for climate change have entrenched class and ethnic hierarchies ultimately trapping the poor, powerless, and displaced into a predatory patronage system that can aggravate human insecurity and intensify violent conflict. Planners and practitioners of adaptation need to become more cognizant of the potential for projects to harm others, or admit complicity in the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment, if they are ever to be eliminated.","wordCount":271,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Benjamin K. Sovacool"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c1561087d13f6f99","title":"<i>FBBVA Lecture 2020</i>Exposure, Experience, and Expertise: Why Personal Histories Matter in Economics","abstract":"Personal experiences of economic outcomes, from global financial crises to individual-level job losses, can shape individual beliefs, risk attitudes, and choices for years to come. A growing literature on experience effects shows that individuals act as if past outcomes that they experienced were overly likely to occur again, even if they are fully informed about the actual likelihood. This reaction to past experiences is long-lasting though it decays over time as individuals accumulate new experiences. Modern brain science helps understand these processes. Evidence on neural plasticity reveals that personal experiences and learning alter the strength of neural connections and fine-tune the brain structure to those past experiences (“use-dependent brain”). I show that experience effects help understand belief formation and decision-making in a wide range of economic applications, including inflation, home purchases, mortgage choices, and consumption expenditures. I argue that experience-based learning is broadly applicable to economic decision-making and discuss topics for future research in education, health, race, and gender economics.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Ulrike Malmendier"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab045","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c157fc0868670c09","title":"Insider Trading, Stochastic Liquidity, and Equilibrium Prices","abstract":"We extend Kyle's (1985) model of insider trading to the case where noise trading volatility follows a general stochastic process. We determine conditions under which, in equilibrium, price impact and price volatility are both stochastic, driven by shocks to uninformed volume even though the fundamental value is constant. The volatility of price volatility appears 'excessive' because insiders choose to trade more aggressively (and thus more information is revealed) when uninformed volume is higher and price impact is lower. This generates a positive relation between price volatility and trading volume, giving rise to an endogenous subordinate stochastic process for prices.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Pierre Collin‐Dufresne","Vyacheslav Fos"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10789","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c160d3fe8e2fd515","title":"Investment in Knowledge‐Based Capital and Productivity: Firm‐Level Evidence from a Small Open Economy","abstract":"This paper examines the responsiveness of firm productivity to investment in knowledge‐based capital (KBC) including a range of intangible assets such as research and development (R&D), intellectual property assets, computer software, organizational, and branding capital. A dynamic econometric model is estimated with micro‐data from Ireland over the period 2006–2012. Ceteris paribus , the estimated average elasticity of productivity with respect to investment in KBC per employee is 0.3. In comparison to previous empirical studies, this paper goes beyond the representative firm approach and accounts for the heterogeneous behavior of firms which differ by ownership, size, export participation, and sector of activity. Further, the analysis finds that investing simultaneously in multiple KBC assets has complementary as well as substitution effects on firm productivity, with different interdependence patterns for specific investment combinations across groups of firms and sectors.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Mattia Di Ubaldo","Iulia Siedschlag"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12464","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c168550afc01c39f","title":"Productivity Spillovers in Team Production: Evidence from Professional Basketball","abstract":"We estimate a model where workers are heterogeneous both in their own productivity and in their ability to facilitate the productivity of others. We use data from professional basketball to measure the importance of peers in productivity because we have clear measures of output and members of a worker’s group change on a regular basis. Our empirical results highlight that productivity spillovers play an important role in team production. Despite this, we find that worker compensation is largely determined by own productivity with little weight given to productivity spillovers.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Peter Arcidiacono","Josh Kinsler","Joseph Price"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/687529","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c1977971b0d67d38","title":"Corporate culture: Evidence from the field","abstract":"Ninety-two percent of the 1348 North American executives we survey believe that improving corporate culture would increase firm value. A striking 84% believe their company needs to improve its culture. But how can that be achieved? Our paper provides some guidance by documenting the following: executives’ views on what corporate culture is and how it operates, distinguishing between stated values and everyday norms; the extent to which culture is perceived to influence value creation (productivity, mergers), ethical choices (compliance, short-termism), and innovation (creativity, risk-taking); and a list of obstacles that can prevent culture from being where it should be (inattentive leaders, misaligned incentive compensation). Finally, we provide evidence that the executives’ survey responses are consistent with external data.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["John R. Graham","Jillian Grennan","Campbell R. Harvey","Shivaram Rajgopal"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.07.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c19eaf689223c0af","title":"Relaxing Occupational Licensing Requirements: Analyzing Wages and Prices for a Medical Service","abstract":"Occupational licensing laws have been relaxed in a large number of US states to give nurse practitioners the ability to perform more tasks without the supervision of medical doctors. We investigate how these regulations affect wages, hours worked, and the prevailing transaction prices and quality levels associated with certain types of medical services. We find that when nurse practitioners have more independence in their scope of practice, their wages are higher but physicians’ wages are lower, which suggests some substitution between the occupations. Our analysis of insurance claims data shows that more rigid regulations increase the price of a well-child visit by 3–16 percent. However, we find no evidence that the changes in regulatory policy are reflected in outcomes that might be connected to the quality and safety of health services.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Morris M. Kleiner","Allison Marier","Kyoung Won Park","Coady Wing"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/688093","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c1a120d6c79003ba","title":"A Novel Sampling Strategy for Surveying High Net‐Worth Individuals—A Pretest Application Using the Socio‐Economic Panel","abstract":"High‐wealth individuals are typically underrepresented or completely missing in population surveys. The lack of comprehensive national registers on high‐wealth individuals in many countries challenged previous attempts to remedy this under‐representation. In a novel research design, we draw on public data on the shareholding structures of companies as a sampling frame. Our design builds on the empirical regularity that high‐wealth individuals are likely to hold at least part of their assets in the form of shareholdings. Based on data from over 270 million companies worldwide, we select all individuals who are both German residents and registered shareholders of companies. In a pretest, we interviewed 124 households from a gross sample of 2,000 anchor persons. Our analysis shows that values of shareholdings from register data highly correlate with individual ranks in the wealth distribution, that the quality of personal information, particularly the residential address, is sufficiently high for subsequent interviewing, and that the approach can fill a major data and research gap in the study of high‐wealth individuals.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Carsten Schröder","Charlotte Bartels","Markus M. Grabka","Johannes König","Martin Kroh","Rainer Siegers"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12452","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c1a73996ebf55319","title":"Family Labor Supply Responses to Severe Health Shocks: Evidence from Danish Administrative Records","abstract":"We provide new evidence on households’ labor supply responses to fatal and severe nonfatal health shocks in the short run and medium run. To identify causal effects, we leverage administrative data on Danish families and construct counterfactuals using households that experience the same event a few years apart. Fatal events lead to considerable increases in surviving spouses’ labor supply, which the evidence suggests is driven by families who experience significant income losses. Nonfatal shocks have no meaningful effects on spousal labor supply, consistent with their adequate insurance coverage. The results support self-insurance as a driving mechanism for the family labor supply responses.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Itzik Fadlon","Torben Heien Nielsen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170604","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c1c432cf76e44645","title":"Surprise election for Trump connections","abstract":"We exploit Donald Trump’s nonpolitical background and surprise election victory to identify the value of sudden presidential ties among S&P 500 firms. In our setting firms did not choose to become politically connected, so we identify treatment effects comparatively free of selection bias prevalent in this literature. Firms with presidential ties enjoyed greater abnormal returns around the 2016 election. Since Trump’s inauguration, connected firms had better performance, received more government contracts, and were less subject to unfavorable regulatory actions. We rule out a number of confounding factors, including industry designation, sensitivity to Republican platforms, campaign finance, and lobbying expenditures.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Travers Barclay Child","Nadia Massoud","Mario Schabus","Yifan Zhou"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.12.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c1ca912952c0620b","title":"Product appeal, differences in tastes, and export performance: Evidence for Danish chocolate and confectionery","abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between domestic market performance and export performance. We employ data on production and trade in the Danish chocolate and confectionery industry to obtain estimates of domestic ‘product appeal’ (reflecting non-price factors of domestic performance). Domestic product appeal is influenced not only by inherent characteristics of the product, but also by the tastes and preferences of domestic consumers. For many consumer goods, tastes depend on customs, culture etc. A product’s domestic appeal is therefore an imperfect predictor of foreign demand (and hence of export performance), especially in destinations where tastes differ substantially from domestic tastes. We combine estimates of domestic product appeal with information on destination-specific exports and a novel measure of differences in tastes across countries to confirm this hypothesis. Results are consistent across both a Tobit model with destination-specific censoring point and the BLP estimator, which additionally reveals substantial heterogeneity in tastes for product appeal within countries across consumers.","wordCount":155,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Ina C. Jäkel"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2018.11.002","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c1f3e8b49755ad4c","title":"The euro and the geography of international debt flows","abstract":"Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments. We then analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro’s introduction, core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery. Moreover, we present evidence that large core EMU banks’ lending to periphery borrowers was linked to their borrowing from outside of the euro area.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Galina Hale","Maurice Obstfeld"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12160","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c1f51477c97e2efe","title":"Elite Recruitment and Political Stability: The Impact of the Abolition of China's Civil Service Exam","abstract":"This paper studies how the abolition of an elite recruitment system—China's civil exam system that lasted over 1, 300 years—affects political stability. Employing a panel data set across 262 prefectures and exploring the variations in the quotas on the entry‐level exam candidates, we find that higher quotas per capita were associated with a higher probability of revolution participation after the abolition and a higher incidence of uprisings in 1911 that marked the end of the 2, 000 years of imperial rule. This finding is robust to various checks including using the number of small rivers and short‐run exam performance before the quota system as instruments. The patterns in the data appear most consistent with the interpretation that in regions with higher quotas per capita under the exam system, more would‐be elites were negatively affected by the abolition. In addition, we document that modern human capital in the form of those studying in Japan also contributed to the revolution and that social capital strengthened the effect of quotas on revolution participation.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Ying Bai","Ruixue Jia"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13448","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c21a2a07e1a02529","title":"Finding Mr. Schumpeter: technology adoption in the cement industry","abstract":"We examine the adoption of fuel‐efficient precalciner kilns in the cement industry using the universe of adoption decisions in the United States over 1973–2013. We find that cement plants are more likely to adopt the technology if fuel costs are high, nearby competitors are few, and local demand conditions are favorable. We relate the findings to the Schumpeterian and induced innovation hypotheses regarding the effects of competition and factor prices. Our results suggest firms may be most responsive to factor prices under advantageous competitive and demand conditions.","wordCount":87,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Jeffrey T. Macher","Nathan Miller","Matthew Osborne"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12362","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c22e9bbef644abc6","title":"Exit, Tweets, and Loyalty","abstract":"Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty highlights the role of “voice” when individuals confront an unexpected deterioration in quality. Yet, voice has received little attention. To motivate our empirical analysis, we develop a simple model of voice as the equilibrium of a relational contract between customers and firms. We use data on 4 million tweets to or about US airlines to study the relationship between quality, voice, and market structure. Voice increases when quality deteriorates. This relationship is greater for airlines that operate a large share of flights in a market. Supplemental analyses support a relational contracting role for voice.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Joshua S. Gans","Avi Goldfarb","Mara Lederman"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180085","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c23a2d01fafb940f","title":"Can self-set goals encourage resource conservation? Field experimental evidence from a smartphone app","abstract":"This study leverages a large RCT to examine the potential of goal-setting nudges to encourage resource conservation at scale. We randomize a feature that allows subjects to set themselves energy consumption targets in a popular smartphone app. We document negative effects of the nudge on app utilization and estimate null effects on energy consumption with confidence intervals that rule out estimates from observational studies. A complementary survey identifies the mechanisms underlying these behavioral responses. Using a structural model and random variation of the app’s price, we estimate that the average user is willing to pay 7.41 EUR to avoid the nudge.","wordCount":101,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Andreas Löschel","Matthias Rodemeier","Madeline Werthschulte"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104612","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c263109b9c6e9020","title":"The impact of farm input subsidies on maize marketing in Malawi","abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of subsidised fertilizer on marketing of maize in Malawi. It uses the nationally representative two-wave Integrated Household Panel Survey (IHPS) data of 2010 and 2013. The results suggest that subsidised fertilizer on average increases farmers' maize market participation as sellers, total quantity of maize sold, and maize commercialisation. In addition, participation in subsidised fertilizer programme is found to increase the probability of farmers to be net sellers and increases net quantity of maize sold. However, the study finds no evidence of effect on net quantity of maize bought and on household maize self-sufficiency. These results suggest that the farm input subsidy program has contributed toward an increased level of maize market supply engagement for small farmers and in this sense, the policy has the potential to provide the wider external benefits. Furthermore, the results have implication on the sustainability of the subsidy programme, policy formulation and design of programmes for the agricultural sector and small farmers in developing countries.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Lonester Sibande","Alastair Bailey","Sophia Davidova"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.04.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c2649ab805d4e4e0","title":"Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics","abstract":"We study the evolution of trade liberalization's effects on Brazilian local labor markets. Regions facing larger tariff cuts experienced prolonged declines in formal sector employment and earnings relative to other regions. The impact of tariff changes on regional earnings 20 years after liberalization was three times the effect after 10 years. These increasing effects on regional earnings are inconsistent with conventional spatial equilibrium models, which predict declining effects due to spatial arbitrage. We investigate potential mechanisms, finding empirical support for a mechanism involving imperfect interregional labor mobility and dynamics in labor demand, driven by slow capital adjustment and agglomeration economies. This mechanism gradually amplifies the effects of liberalization, explaining the slow adjustment path of regional earnings and quantitatively accounting for the magnitude of the long-run effects.","wordCount":126,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Rafael Dix-Carneiro","Brian K. Kovak"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161214","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c292ec1f85d02341","title":"Hotelling under Pressure","abstract":"We show that oil production from existing wells in Texas does not respond to oil prices, while drilling activity and costs respond strongly. To explain these facts, we reformulate Hotelling’s classic model of exhaustible resource extraction as a drilling problem: firms choose when to drill, but production from existing wells is constrained by reservoir pressure, which decays as oil is extracted. The model implies a modified Hotelling rule for drilling revenues net of costs, explains why the production constraint typically binds, and rationalizes regional production peaks and observed patterns of prices, drilling, and production following demand and supply shocks.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Soren Anderson","Ryan Kellogg","Stephen W. Salant"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/697203","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c295a929e965028a","title":"Consumer sentiment: The influence of social media","abstract":"Since the late 1940s consumer sentiment has been used by policy makers, companies and investors as an indicator of economic mood. However, the rapid growth and spread of social media has changed the landscape of the consumer. By using a unique hand-collected dataset of more than 11 million influencers’ posts, we test whether consumer sentiment is related to social media influencer sentiment. We find consumer sentiment, after testing for endogeneity concerns, is robustly related to different categories of influencer sentiment across different groupings of individuals.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Zhengfa Zhang","Kevin Keasey","Costas Lambrinoudakis","Danilo V. Mascia"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111638","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c2967effc4e281a4","title":"Social connectedness and cross-border mergers and acquisitions","abstract":"We investigate the role of social connectedness in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using the Facebook social connectedness index. We show that stronger social connectedness between countries leads to higher announcement returns for acquirers in cross-border M&As. This effect is attributed to improved information dissemination, which reduces target premiums, increases deal completion likelihood, and supports acquirers to achieve long-term success. Furthermore, social connectedness increases the frequency and dollar value of cross-border M&As between countries. This relation is weaker for countries in the same customs union, but stronger in the presence of greater political disagreement or significant time zone differences. Extending our analysis to domestic M&As in the U.S., we find that social connectedness between the headquarters’ cities of acquirers and targets improves acquirers’ announcement returns.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Zhonghao Jiang","Yukun Shi","Lu Xing"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101582","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c2ad141c0eea5589","title":"Land Distribution, Income Generation and Inequality in India's Agricultural Sector","abstract":"This paper is a contribution to understanding income generation and inequality in India's agricultural sector. We analyze the National Sample Surveys of agriculture in 2003 and 2013 using descriptive and regression based methods, and estimate income inequality in the agricultural sector at the scale of the nation and its 17 largest states. We show that: (a) there are significant state‐level differences in the structures/patterns of income generation from agriculture, (b) there is a negative relationship between the amount of land owned by the household and share of wages in total income, (c) income inequality in India's agricultural sector is very high (Gini Coefficient of around 0.6 during the period), and (d) about half of the income inequality is explained by the household‐level variance in income from cultivation, which in turn is primarily dependent on variance in landownership.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Sanjoy Chakravorty","S. Chandrasekhar","Karthikeya Naraparaju"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12434","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c2e4a9b2b4d2b50b","title":"A consumer surplus, welfare and profit enhancing strategy for improving urban public transport networks","abstract":"We show that a novel pricing system can help resolve a series of perennial problems evident in the deregulated British urban public transport market that have impeded urban growth, access equality and environmental ambitions. A two-stage pricing system, with operators setting their multi-operator service ticket prices collusively in one stage and their single-operator ticket prices independently in the other, offers potential consumer surplus, profit and welfare gains over, what we characterise as, the free-market ‘Status Quo’. The proposed win–win pricing system can also support a larger number of operators and services with potential additional welfare gains. We also compare the proposed system against a multi-operator ticketing card (MTC) scheme, permitted in the UK under the Block Exemption. The Block Exemption allows collusive pricing on a limited basis but is due to expire and is under statutory review, making this is a timely contribution. We show, whilst the MTC offers higher welfare when all regimes provide the same number of services, the proposed system can support a larger number of operators in the presence of fixed costs, which can reverse the welfare ranking in its favour. A calibration exercise indicates the market may be operating in the region where the proposed system can dominate the ‘Status Quo’ in profit, consumer surplus and welfare terms and support a larger network than the ‘Status Quo’ or MTC with further welfare gains. The resulting higher public transport patronage may also offer further indirect benefits via reduced pollution, congestion and accidents. Improved transport efficiency may have urban density advantages, especially in Britain’s second-tier cities which do not tend to benefit from extensive public transit rail and underground networks, with associated agglomeration effects contributing to the current levelling-up priority. Given the salience amongst developed countries of the private aspect of urban public transport in Britain, along with an unresolved private vs public debate, this issue is of potential interest to urban planners and policymakers beyond the UK.","wordCount":321,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Jolian McHardy","Michael Reynolds","Stephen Trotter"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103899","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c2ec3ce652dab690","title":"A Model of the International Monetary System","abstract":"We propose a simple model of the international monetary system. We study the world supply and demand for reserve assets denominated in different currencies under a variety of scenarios: a hegemon versus a multipolar world; abundant versus scarce reserve assets; and a gold exchange standard versus a floating rate system. We rationalize the Triffin dilemma, which posits the fundamental instability of the system, as well as the common prediction regarding the natural and beneficial emergence of a multipolar world, the Nurkse warning that a multipolar world is more unstable than a hegemon world, and the Keynesian argument that a scarcity of reserve assets under a gold standard or at the zero lower bound is recessionary. Our analysis is both positive and normative.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Emmanuel Farhi","Matteo Maggiori"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx031","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c2fc6e3718ec395e","title":"Mismatch Unemployment and the Geography of Job Search","abstract":"Could we significantly reduce US unemployment by helping job seekers move closer to jobs? Using data from the leading employment board CareerBuilder.com, we show that, indeed, workers dislike applying to distant jobs: job seekers are 35 percent less likely to apply to a job 10 miles (mi.) away from their zip code of residence. However, because job seekers are close enough to vacancies on average, this distaste for distance is fairly inconsequential: our search and matching model predicts that relocating job seekers to minimize unemployment would decrease unemployment by only 5.3 percent. Geographic mismatch is thus a minor driver of aggregate unemployment.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Ioana Marinescu","Roland Rathelot"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160312","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c30dbfa2f4fb9525","title":"The Objectives of Stakeholder Involvement in Transdisciplinary Research. A Conceptual Framework for a Reflective and Reflexive Practise","abstract":"Transdisciplinary research is a well-recognised approach to address complex real-world problems. However, the literature on a central aspect of transdisciplinarity, namely stakeholder involvement, largely lacks a reflection on its objectives. In response, we present a framework defining four general rationales for stakeholder involvement: normative, substantive, social-learning, and implementation objectives. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework and analyse how the design and processes of three collaborative research projects dealing with sustainable land management in Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America were affected by motivations to include stakeholders. Our assessment indicates that at the projects' outset, many scientists pursued a normative rationale and saw stakeholder involvement as a burden. In the course of the projects, the substantive objective became more relevant as being closely linked to the core mandate of scientists. The projects also aimed for social learning and implementation processes, which, however, did not remain uncontested among team members. Overall, our study indicates that jointly negotiating, clarifying, communicating, and reflecting the underlying objectives of stakeholder involvement can help developing more effective interaction strategies and clarifying expectations. The conceptual framework can guide a systematic reflective and reflexive practise and support the planning and co-designing of future transdisciplinary research projects.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Laura Schmidt","Thomas Falk","Marianna Siegmund‐Schultze","Joachim H. Spangenberg"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106751","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c3183bf2fce9feae","title":"Information acquisition and provision in school choice: An experimental study","abstract":"When participating in school choice, students often spend substantial effort acquiring information about schools. We investigate how two popular mechanisms incentivize students' information acquisition in the laboratory. While students' willingness to pay for information is significantly greater under the Immediate than the Deferred Acceptance mechanism, most students over-invest in information acquisition, especially when they are more curious or believe that others invest more. Additionally, some students never invest in information acquisition but benefit equally from information provision. Both free provision and costly acquisition of information on students' own preferences increase their payoffs and allocative efficiency, whereas provision of information that helps students better assessing admission chances reduces wasteful investments. Our results also suggest that agents' information preferences, such as curiosity, can play an important role in market design theory and policy.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Yan Chen","Yinghua He"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105345","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c3276c1edb154d7b","title":"The dynamics of industry agglomeration: Evidence from 44 years of coagglomeration patterns","abstract":"Evidence abounds that agglomeration patterns have changed over time, but little is known about changes in the underlying determinants of agglomeration. We analyze 44 years of coagglomeration patterns of U.S. manufacturing industries and show that over time, input-output linkages and labor market pooling have become less important determinants of industry agglomeration, while knowledge spillovers have become more important. We show that trade and technology shocks are strongly associated with the decline in labor market pooling and the increase in knowledge spillovers. The downward trend in input-output linkages is associated with an increase in trade competition but not with a decrease in the transportation costs of goods.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Mathieu Steijn","Hans Koster","Frank van Oort"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103456","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c32adf10da7ea7ee","title":"The missing risk premium in exchange rates","abstract":"We use a present-value model of the real exchange rate to impose structure on the currency risk premium. We allow the currency risk premium to depend on both the interest rate differential and a latent component: the missing risk premium. Consistent with the data, our present-value model implies that the real exchange rate should predict currency returns. We find that the missing risk premium, not the interest rate differential, explains most of the variation in the real exchange rate. Moreover, our model sheds light on puzzling relations between the interest rate differential, the real exchange rate, and the currency risk premium.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Magnus Dahlquist","Julien Pénasse"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c32b7a4b7a1a9037","title":"The ‘light touch’ of the Black Death in the Southern Netherlands: an urban trick?","abstract":"Although the fanciful notion that the Black Death bypassed the Low Countries has long been rejected, nevertheless a persistent view remains that the Low Countries experienced only a 'light touch' of the plague when placed in a broader European perspective, and recovered quickly and fully. However, in this article an array of dispersed sources for the Southern Netherlands together with a new mortmain accounts database for Hainaut show that the Black Death was severe, perhaps no less severe than other parts of western Europe; that serious plagues continued throughout the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries; and that the Black Death and recurring plagues spread over vast territories-including the countryside. The previous conception of a 'light touch' of plague in the Low Countries was created by the overprivileging of particular urban sources, and a failure to account for the rapid replenishment of cities via inward migration, which obscured demographic decimation. We suggest that the population of the Low Countries may not have recovered faster than other parts of western Europe but instead experienced a greater degree of post-plague rural-urban migration.","wordCount":178,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Joris Roosen","Daniel R. Curtis"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12667","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c32bca7de755da8c","title":"Evaluating the long-run effects of zoning reform on urban development","abstract":"This paper presents a framework for assessing the long-run effects of zoning reform on urban development, housing supply, and dwelling prices. We begin by developing a version of the monocentric model that features regulatory restrictions on the capital intensity of housing that vary between different residential zones. A key implication of the model is that differences in land price gradients between zones reflect differences in equilibrium floorspace. This facilitates empirical estimation of the anticipated supply response to zoning reform through the measurement of changes in land price differentials after policy announcement. We use the framework to evaluate a recently implemented reform in Auckland, New Zealand, finding that changes in land price gradients in upzoned areas compared to non-upzoned areas are consistent with an approximate 23.7% increase in floorspace. Using plausible estimates of long-run house price elasticities of demand from the extant literature, this supply increase implies that dwelling prices would be 15.1 to 26.9% higher under the counterfactual of no upzoning.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104062","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c334b429035cb1a6","title":"Modeling long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price declines on Gulf oil economies","abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has been detrimental on hydrocarbon-overdependent Gulf states. The effects of the unprecedented oil price declines and substantial COVID-relief packages on Gulf economies are critical, as they can become enduring and foundational if the energy transitions accelerate to meet the Paris Agreement targets. Thus, this study assesses the impacts of the pandemic on the long-term economic sustainability of Gulf economies, using illustrations from Kuwait using the economy-wide WAFRA Applied General Equilibrium (WAFRAGE) Model applied to Kuwait (WAFRAGE-KWT Model). The simulation results indicate that post-pandemic, the economic resiliency of these states has significantly waned, primarily because the pandemic hit during a state of weakened economic resilience following the 2014 oil price collapse and subsequent government response. Although COVID-relief packages appeared in the form of counter-cyclical fiscal policy, Gulf states are unable to realize this policy's full potential benefits. They are incapable of being truly counter-cyclical under their current economic structure and the consumption-based nature of the COVID-relief packages, which protect oligopolistic firms' profits and reduce production, non-oil exports, and economic efficiency. The eroded fiscal and economic resiliency also threatens Gulf states' ability to weather energy transitions. The implication of the findings is that long-term sustainability requires immediate phased implementation of economic and energy reforms.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Manal Shehabi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105849","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c334c7af13d27cda","title":"Liquidity in the global currency market","abstract":"We study the liquidity of the global currency market by analyzing the price impact of trading volume. We analyze a decade of CLS intraday data representative of global foreign exchange (FX) trading by developing a refinement of the popular Amihud (2002) illiquidity measure that we call realized Amihud, which is the ratio between realized volatility and trading volume. Inversely related to market depth, price impact increases with transaction costs, money market stress, uncertainty, and risk aversion. Furthermore, we analyze whether and how liquidity begets price efficiency by looking at violations of the “triangular” no-arbitrage condition. We find that dollar-based currencies offer a lower trading impact supporting price efficiency.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Angelo Ranaldo","Paolo Santucci de Magistris"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.09.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c339b6d9b7cce681","title":"The sectoral effects of Brexit on the British economy: early evidence from the reaction of the stock market","abstract":"We investigate the impact of the outcome of the EU referendum (Brexit) on various sectors of the British economy over the period June–July 2016. Using the event study methodology, we assess the effects of Brexit, relative to what had been anticipated, as measured by abnormal returns (ARs). The results show that the banking and travel and leisure sectors were affected negatively, with a cumulative AR of −15.37% for the banking sector. We observe that Brexit has a mixed effect on ARs with apparent sector-by-sector differences.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Vikash Ramiah","Huy Pham","Imad A. Moosa"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1240352","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c33e5657c764ba1e","title":"Resolving Rabin’s paradox","abstract":"We present a theoretical model of Rabin’s famous calibration paradox that resolves confusions in the literature and that makes it possible to identify the causes of the paradox. Using suitable experimental stimuli, we show that the paradox truly violates expected utility and that it is caused by reference dependence. Rabin already showed that utility curvature alone cannot explain his paradox. We, more strongly, do not find any contribution of utility curvature to the explanation of the paradox. We find no contribution of probability weighting either. We conclude that Rabin’s paradox underscores the importance of reference dependence.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Han Bleichrodt","Jason N. Doctor","Yu Gao","Chen Li","Daniella Meeker","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09318-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c33e702a74b4455b","title":"The Optimal Scope of the Royalty Base in Patent Licensing","abstract":"Legal scholars debate the merits of using the total value of the product, as opposed to the value of the component to which the technology contributes, as the base for a royalty in licensing contracts. In this paper we make use of the fact that these two royalty bases are equivalent to using ad valorem and per-unit royalties, respectively. We abstract from implementation and practicability considerations to analyze the welfare implications of the two rules. Ad valorem royalties tend to lead to lower prices, particularly in the context of successive monopolies. They benefit upstream innovators and do not necessarily hurt downstream producers. This benefit increases when there are multiple innovators contributing complementary technologies, as is typical of standard-setting organizations. Ad valorem royalties are even more desirable when enticing upstream investment is optimal. Our findings explain why most licensing contracts include royalties based on the value of the product.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Gerard Llobet","Jorge Padilla"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686306","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c34b07b281db4ad4","title":"Give a Man a Fishpond: Modeling the Impacts of Aquaculture in the Rural Economy","abstract":"The rapid growth of fish farming over the past three decades has generated heated debate over the role of aquaculture in rural development and poverty reduction. Central to these debates is the question of whether and how aquaculture impacts local incomes and employment, yet little empirical evidence exists on the issue. To address this question, we propose a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model which nests fish farm models within a general-equilibrium model of their local economy. The model is calibrated using primary data collected from 1102 households in Myanmar’s main aquaculture zone, representative of 60% of the country’s aquaculture farms. Using this model, we examine the impact of aquaculture on the incomes and labor market outcomes of fish farming households, but also crop farms and non-farm households in the cluster. Simulating one-acre increases in pond/plot surface we find that: (1) aquaculture generates much higher incomes per-acre than agriculture; (2) aquaculture generates larger income spillovers than agriculture for non-farm households by way of retail and labor markets; (3) small commercial fish farms generate greater spillovers than large fish farms. These results bolster the notion that fish-farming, and in particular small-scale commercial aquaculture, may have a significant role to play in rural development and poverty reduction.","wordCount":205,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Mateusz Filipski","Ben Belton"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.023","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c35f6b04b4a37c20","title":"Choose to Lose: Health Plan Choices from a Menu with Dominated Option","abstract":"We examine the health plan choices that 23,894 employees at a U.S. firm made from a large menu of options that differed only in financial cost-sharing and premium. These decisions provide a clear test of the predictions of the standard economic model of insurance choice in the absence of choice frictions because plans were priced so that nearly every plan with a lower deductible was financially dominated by an otherwise identical plan with a high deductible. We document that the majority of employees chose dominated plans, which resulted in excess spending equivalent to 24% of chosen plan premiums. Low-income employees were significantly more likely to choose dominated plans, and most employees did not switch into more financially efficient plans in the subsequent year. We show that the choice of dominated plans cannot be rationalized by standard risk preference or any expectations about health risk. Testing alternative explanations with a series of hypothetical-choice experiments, we find that the popularity of dominated plans was not primarily driven by the size and complexity of the plan menu, nor informed preferences for avoiding high deductibles, but by employees’ lack of understanding of health insurance. Our findings challenge the standard practice of inferring risk preferences from insurance choices and raise doubts about the welfare benefits of health reforms that expand consumer choice.","wordCount":217,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Saurabh Bhargava","George Loewenstein","Justin Sydnor"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx011","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c36bd89a0a3be98a","title":"Demographic Change and R&D‐based Economic Growth","abstract":"In the second half of the 20th century, most industrialized countries experienced declining fertility, rising life expectancy and a slowdown of population growth. Standard models of R&D‐based growth predict that a decline in population growth reduces economic growth. We argue that this implication hinges on the assumption of infinitely lived individuals. The semi‐endogenous growth model with overlapping generations that we propose implies a negative relationship between population growth and economic growth during a substantial part of the transitional dynamics if the decline in population growth is accompanied by an increase in life expectancy as observed in industrialized countries.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Klaus Prettner","Timo Trimborn"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12195","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c37cc73131c1615d","title":"The unintended effects of minimum wage increases on crime","abstract":"The availability of higher-paying jobs for low-skilled individuals has been documented to reduce crime. This study explores the impact of one of the most prominent labor policies designed to provide higher wages for low-skilled workers — the minimum wage — on teenage and young adult arrests. Using data from the 1998–2016 Uniform Crime Reports and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that a 1 percent increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 0.2 to 0.3 percent increase in property crime arrests among 16-to-24-year-olds, an effect driven by an increase in larceny-related arrests. The magnitudes of our estimated elasticities suggest that a $15 Federal minimum wage, proposed as part of the Raise the Wage Act, could generate approximately 309,000 additional larcenies. Job loss emerges as an important mechanism to explain our findings, and supplemental analyses of affected workers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 show that this effect is concentrated among workers bound by minimum wage increases. Finally, we find no evidence that minimum wage hikes impact violent crime arrests.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Zachary S. Fone","Joseph J. Sabia","Resul Cesur"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104780","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c3879455f51bf485","title":"Keeping College Options Open: A Field Experiment to Help all High School Seniors Through the College Application Process","abstract":"Recent research suggests that the college application process itself prevents access. This paper reports results from a school‐based experiment in which application assistance is incorporated into the high school curriculum for all graduating seniors at low‐transition schools. Over three workshops, students were guided to pick programs of interest that they were eligible for, apply for real, and complete the financial aid application. The goal was to create a real college option for exiting students to make the transition easier and more salient. Among all graduating seniors, the program increased application rates by 15 percentage points, and college going rates by 5 percentage points. Among those not taking advanced‐level courses, college enrollment increased by 9 percentage points. The program generated significant effects for a wide range of heterogeneous groups, including both males and females, those from urban and rural schools, and those with above and below average grades. While more intensive than other tested approaches, in‐class application assistance may provide a more effective approach for bridging the gap towards higher education.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Philip Oreopoulos","Reuben Ford"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22115","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c390324e7e9bfd3e","title":"Does Generation Matter to Entrepreneurship? Four Generations of Entrepreneurs","abstract":"This study for the first time addresses generation effects on eight entrepreneur types across four U.S. generations: Traditionalists, Boomers, Gen‐Xers, and Millennials. It adopts hierarchical age‐period‐cohort (HAPC) models using multilevel mixed‐effects logistic regression models with random period effect controls and the same‐age comparison between two neighboring generations. The empirical study relies on monthly Current Population Survey data across 11 years (2006–2016). When controlling for age, period, path dependency, seasonality, and other demographic and socioeconomic factors, no generational differences are identified for workers' entrepreneur propensity, mirroring entrepreneurs' misfits; for entrepreneur‐type propensities, limited generation differences are identified: the odds for Gen‐Xers to be novice (vs. non‐novice ) entrepreneurs are 10% higher than Boomers for the ages of 44 and 51; the odds for Boomers to be opportunity (vs. necessity ) entrepreneurs are 2.3 times higher than Traditionalists for the ages 63–70. The limited generational difference is consistent with prior literature using HAPC.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Ting Zhang","Zoltán J. Ács"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12350","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c3a1577bdb2ac3ba","title":"Modelling common bubbles in cryptocurrency prices","abstract":"The bubbles and spikes in cryptocurrency prices increase considerably the risk on investments in these assets. In the traditional time series literature bubbles are viewed as nonstationary and non-estimable components of a process. In this paper, we adopt a different approach and consider the bubbles as inherent features of a strictly stationary causal-noncausal (mixed) Vector Autoregressive (VAR) process. This approach allows us to model and estimate the common bubbles and spikes in cryptocurrency prices. It also provides us linear combinations of cryptocurrencies that eliminate common bubbles analogously to the cointegrating vectors eliminating common trends in unit root processes. They are used to build cryptocurrency portfolios immune to the risk of common bubbles that ensure stable investment strategies. The mixed VAR model is estimated from the US Dollar prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Stellar over the period 2017–2019. We document the common bubbles and illustrate the behavior of bubble-free portfolios.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["M. Hall","Joann Jasiak"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106782","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c3acbd3ec8ec9606","title":"Tick size and firm financing decisions: Evidence from a natural experiment","abstract":"The TSPP’s effect is more pronounced for firms that, prior to the program, have a higher level of concern about adverse selection in equity financing. Using the SEC’s 2016 Tick Size Pilot Program (TSPP) as a natural experiment, we investigate the effects of a tick size increase on firms’ choice of equity versus debt financing. We find that after the program’s implementation, TSPP-affected firms show a significant increase in equity issuance relative to that of debt. This finding is consistent with a reduction in adverse selection in equity financing due to more acquisition of fundamental information by these firms’ investors. In support of this inference, we show that the increase is concentrated among firms with investors that increase their information acquisition. We also find that the effect is more pronounced for firms that, prior to the program, have a higher level of concern about adverse selection in equity financing. Our study offers the novel insight that a tick size increase can affect firms’ financing choices because the increased tick size generates incentives for investors to acquire more fundamental information.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Yangyang Chen","Jeffrey Ng","Emmanuel Ofosu","Xin Yang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101651","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c3b56a7031605ef2","title":"Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty","abstract":"We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentives for firms to reduce exposure to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a threat that weakens the bargaining power of unskilled workers in wage negotiations, depressing their wages and raising the skill premium and wage inequality. Our model predictions are in line with industry-level empirical evidence.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Hamid Firooz","Sylvain Leduc","Zheng Liu"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104091","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c3bc98a1b46e887a","title":"Do environmental provisions in trade agreements make exports from developing countries greener?","abstract":"Environmental provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are increasing in terms of their number and variety. The economic effects of these environmental provisions remain largely unclear. It is, therefore, necessary to determine whether the trend to incorporate environmental provisions in PTAs counteracts the goal to spur economic development through trade via these PTAs. This is the first article in which the trade effects of environmental provisions in PTAs are thoroughly investigated. The spotlight is put on developing countries for which the assumed trade-off between economic development and environmental protection is particularly acute. This article buses a new fine-grained dataset on a broad range of environmental provisions in 680 PTAs, combined with a panel of worldwide bilateral trade flows from 1984 to 2016. We show that environmental provisions can help reduce dirty exports and increase green exports from developing countries. This effect is particularly pronounced in developing countries with stringent environmental regulations. By investigating how environmental provisions in PTAs affect trade flows, this article contributes to the literature on the following topics: international trade and the environment; design and impacts of trade agreements; and greening the economy in developing countries. It also shows that the design of trade agreements matters. Environmental provisions can be used as targeted policy tools to promote the green transformation and to leverage synergies between the economic and environmental effects of including environmental provisions in trade agreements.","wordCount":230,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Clara Brandi","Jakob Schwab","Axel Berger","Jean‐Frédéric Morin"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104899","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c3bd9e517c82ce07","title":"Reconstruction of money supply over the long run: the case of England, 1270–1870","abstract":"This article provides a time series of coin and money supply estimates for six hundred years of English history. Two main estimation methods are proposed. The first (the direct method) is used to measure the value of government‐provided, legal‐tender coin supply only. Two varieties of the direct method are proposed. Additionally, an indirect method is proposed which relies on a combination of information about nominal GDP with an assumption regarding the evolution of velocity in time, and which can be used to calculate coin supply and M2. Both methods rely on benchmark values known for certain years, but no particular benchmark is determinant for the results. The new methodologies set out here may serve as a blueprint for a similar reconstruction of coin and money supply series for other economies for which analogous data are available.","wordCount":136,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Nuno Palma"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12534","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c3bfc4451aac1e12","title":"A GARCH model with two volatility components and two driving factors","abstract":"We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of the characteristic function for future log-returns, from which semi-analytical formulas for option pricing can be derived. A theoretical analysis is conducted to establish sufficient conditions for strict stationarity and geometric ergodicity, while also obtaining the continuous-time diffusion limit of the model. Empirical evaluations, conducted both in-sample and out-of-sample using S&P500 time series data, show that our model outperforms widely used single-factor models in predicting returns and option prices. The code for estimating the model, as well as for computing option prices, is made accessible in MATLAB language.1","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Luca Vincenzo Ballestra","Enzo D’Innocenzo","Christian Tezza"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101671","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c3c0a9a7a3d3e636","title":"Culture, Institutions, and the Wealth of Nations","abstract":"We argue that a more individualist culture leads to more innovation and to higher growth because of the social status rewards associated with innovation in that culture. We use data on the frequency of particular genes associated with collectivist cultures, as well as a measure of distance in terms of frequencies of blood types, and historic prevalence of pathogens to instrument individualism scores. The relationship between individualism and innovation/growth remains strong even after controlling for institutions and other potentially confounding factors. We also provide evidence consistent with two-way causality between culture and institutions.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Gérard Roland"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00599","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c3c5bbcca08987ef","title":"Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production","abstract":"Assessing productivity gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research and policy debate. Positive productivity gains are often attributed to productivity spillovers; however, an alternative, much less emphasized channel is selection and market reallocation, whereby competition leads to factor and revenue reallocation within and between domestic firms and exits of the least productive firms. We investigate the roles of these different mechanisms in determining aggregate-productivity gains using a unifying framework that explores the mechanisms' distinct predictions on the distributions of domestic firms: within-firm productivity improvement shifts rightward or reshapes the productivity distribution, while selection and market reallocation move the revenue and employment distributions leftward and raise left truncations. Using a rich cross-country firm-level panel dataset, we find significant evidence of both mechanisms and effects of competition in product, technology, and labor space. However, selection and market reallocation account for the majority of aggregate-productivity gains, suggesting ignoring this channel could lead to substantial bias in understanding the nature of productivity gains from multinational production.","wordCount":167,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Laura Alfaro","Maggie X. Chen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150437","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c3c6ccb5932a823e","title":"Market power, randomization and regulation","abstract":"This paper provides an introduction to and overview of the mechanism design approach to textbook monopoly and monopsony pricing problems. Specifically, assuming that agents are privately informed about their values and costs, it shows that the optimal selling and procurement mechanisms quite generally involve rationing, provided the underlying mechanism design problem does not satisfy the regularity assumption of Myerson (1981). Rationing takes the form of underpricing in the case of a monopoly seller and of involuntary unemployment and efficiency wages in the case of a monopsony employer. The paper illustrates these phenomena, as well as the effects of price ceilings and minimum wages, with a leading example that permits closed-form solutions. It also explains why resale tends to undermine the firm's benefits from rationing without eliminating them and discusses emerging issues for the theory of regulation.","wordCount":136,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Simon Loertscher","Ellen V. Muir"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103081","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c3d50695945c1402","title":"The Gender Earnings Gap in the Gig Economy: Evidence from over a Million Rideshare Drivers","abstract":"The growth of the “gig” economy generates worker flexibility that, some have speculated, will favour women. We explore this by examining labour supply choices and earnings among more than a million rideshare drivers on Uber in the U.S. We document a roughly 7% gender earnings gap amongst drivers. We show that this gap can be entirely attributed to three factors: experience on the platform (learning-by-doing), preferences and constraints over where to work (driven largely by where drivers live and, to a lesser extent, safety), and preferences for driving speed. We do not find that men and women are differentially affected by a taste for specific hours, a return to within-week work intensity, or customer discrimination. Our results suggest that, in a “gig” economy setting with no gender discrimination and highly flexible labour markets, women’s relatively high opportunity cost of non-paid-work time and gender-based differences in preferences and constraints can sustain a gender pay gap.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Cody Cook","Rebecca Diamond","Jonathan Hall","John A. List","Paul Oyer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa081","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c3e813ae1bed6139","title":"Age of Marriage, Weather Shocks, and the Direction of Marriage Payments","abstract":"We study how aggregate economic conditions affect the timing of marriage, and particularly child marriage, in Sub‐Saharan Africa and in India. In both regions, substantial monetary or in‐kind transfers occur with marriage: bride price across Sub‐Saharan Africa and dowry in India. In a simple equilibrium model of the marriage market in which parents choose when their children marry, income shocks affect the age of marriage because marriage payments are a source of consumption smoothing, particularly for a woman's family. As predicted by our model, we show that droughts, which reduce annual crop yields by 10 to 15% and aggregate income by 4 to 5%, have opposite effects on the marriage behavior of a sample of 400,000 women in the two regions: in Sub‐Saharan Africa they increase the annual hazard into child marriage by 3%, while in India droughts reduce such a hazard by 4%. Changes in the age of marriage due to droughts are associated with changes in fertility, especially in Sub‐Saharan Africa, and with declines in observed marriage payments. Our results indicate that the age of marriage responds to short‐term changes in aggregate economic conditions and that marriage payments determine the sign of this response. This suggests that, in order to design successful policies to combat child marriage and improve investments in daughters' human capital, it is crucial to understand the economic role of marriage market institutions.","wordCount":228,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Lucia Corno","Nicole Hildebrandt","Alessandra Voena"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15505","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c3fedd712a38d9f0","title":"New exporter dynamics","abstract":"We document that new exporters initially export small amounts, grow gradually, and are most likely to exit the export market in their first few years. We find that the standard sunk‐cost model cannot replicate these new exporter dynamics: New exporters grow too large too quickly and live too long. In a modified sunk‐cost model that can account for these facts, the entry costs needed to match the data are three times smaller than in the sunk‐cost model. Dynamic models with richer plant‐level heterogeneity are needed.","wordCount":85,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Kim J. Ruhl","Jonathan L. Willis"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12232","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4096e1d105cf4b0","title":"Homeowner politics and housing supply","abstract":"This paper examines whether homeowner opposition to nearby housing development affects local councillors’ votes on housing bills. Homeowners benefit financially from restricted housing supply through increased housing prices. City councillors, who approve housing development applications, cater to the needs of homeowners who are often long-term resident voters with a financial stake in neighbourhood amenity levels. Using data from Toronto, Canada from 2009 to 2020, we identify housing bills through a machine learning algorithm. We find that councillors who represent more homeowners oppose more housing bills. In particular, councillors are significantly more likely to oppose large housing developments if the project is within their own ward.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Limin Fang","Nathan R. Stewart","Justin Tyndall"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103608","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c411227f08c8cfb2","title":"Chance theory: A separation of riskless and risky utility","abstract":"In a temporal context, sure outcomes may yield higher utility than risky ones as they are available for the execution of plans before the resolution of uncertainty. By observing a disproportionate preference for certainty, empirical research points to a fundamental difference between riskless and risky utility. Chance Theory (CT) accounts for this difference and, in contrast to earlier approaches to separate risky and riskless utility, does not violate basic rationality principles like first-order stochastic dominance or transitivity. CT evaluates the lowest outcome of an act with the riskless utility v and the increments over that outcome, called chances, by subjective expected utility (EU) with a risky utility u . As a consequence of treating sure outcomes differently to risky ones, CT is able to explain the EU-paradoxes of Allais ( Econometrica, 21 (4): 503–546, 1953) that rely on the certainty effect, and also the critique to EU put forward by Rabin ( Econometrica, 68 (5): 1281–1292, 2000). Moreover, CT separates risk attitudes in the strong sense, captured entirely by u , from attitude towards wealth reflected solely through the curvature of v .","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Ulrich Schmidt","Horst Zank"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09385-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c420dd067c9fa208","title":"Regulatory commitment versus non-commitment: Electric vehicle adoption under subsidies and emission standards","abstract":"We compare two regulatory structures in the application of emission standards and a subsidy scheme in the automobile market. The regulator can either commit to an emission standard or is not able to commit. Firms compete á la Cournot and produce fuel-powered and electric vehicles. The emissions of fuel-powered vehicles can be abated by means of investing in emission-reducing innovation. Our results indicate that under commitment there are less emissions, higher subsidies and a major adoption of electric vehicles. By contrast, non-commitment yields more fuel-powered vehicles, more vehicles in total and higher consumer surplus. Electric vehicle producers obtain higher profits under commitment, whereas fuel-powered vehicle producers might be better off under both regulatory structures. Social welfare is higher under non-commitment as long as environmental damages are regarded severe. Otherwise, commitment is socially preferable. This result provides an explanation for observed differences in the duration of environmental standards between the US, the EU and China.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Bernd Theilen","Françeska Tomori"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101388","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c4228d8fb6a26f84","title":"Promoting Wellness or Waste? Evidence from Antidepressant Advertising","abstract":"It is taken as given by many policy makers that Direct-to-Consumer Advertising of prescription drugs drives inappropriate patients to treatment. Alternatively, advertising may provide useful information that causes appropriate patients to seek treatment. I study this dynamic in the context of antidepressants. Leveraging variation driven by the borders of television markets, I find that a 10 percent increase in anti-depressant advertising leads to a 0.3 percent ($32 million) increase in new prescriptions followed by reductions in workplace absenteeism worth about $770 million. I find no effect of advertising on prices, generic penetration, drug switches, adverse effects, non-adherence rates, or therapist visits.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Bradley Shapiro"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190277","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c42d1ba12a3a45da","title":"Do CFO career concerns matter? Evidence from IPO financial reporting outcomes","abstract":"We find that Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) with greater career concerns are more diligent and conservative in preparing financial statements during an Initial Public Offering (IPO). Additional tests exploiting exogenous variation in managerial career concerns suggest that our documented relations are not sensitive to unobservable omitted factors. Furthermore, we document that CFOs who are relatively more concerned about their future job prospects are more sensitive when there is greater scrutiny or higher litigation risk and are less likely to succumb to undue pressures from influential shareholders to exaggerate the firm's prospects. Finally, we show that CFOs with longer decision horizons prefer more transparency during the IPO process, which in turn, translates to superior post-IPO performance and better labor market outcomes than their counterparts. Overall, our findings indicate that career concerns play a disciplining role during IPOs and that CFOs exploit these high-visibility events to accelerate their career trajectory.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Dimitrios Gounopoulos","Georgios Loukopoulos","Panagiotis Loukopoulos","Yu Zhang"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102626","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c4466ec66fb9f107","title":"Extreme temperature and extreme violence: Evidence from russia","abstract":"We study the relationship between extreme temperatures and violent mortality, employing novel regional panel data from Russia. We find that extremely hot temperatures increase violent mortality, while extremely cold temperatures have no effect. The impact of hot temperature on violence is unequal across gender and age groups, rises noticeably during weekends, and leads to considerable social costs. Our findings also suggest that better job opportunities and lower vodka consumption may decrease this impact. The results underscore that economic policies need to target vulnerable population groups to mitigate the adverse impact of extreme temperatures.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Vladimir Otrachshenko","Olga Popova","José Tavares"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12936","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c451fe6e873dd442","title":"Can remittances alleviate energy poverty in developing countries? New evidence from panel data","abstract":"Universal energy access in developing countries is a key ingredient to achieve sustainable economic growth and social welfare. Therefore, it is of paramount importance for policymakers to identify potential new factors to mitigate energy poverty. In this study, we investigate the effects of workers' remittances on energy poverty in 109 developing countries from 2000 to 2019 using panel fixed and random effects as well as the system generalized method of moment and Lewbel (2012) estimators to address potential endogeneity problems. We demonstrate that remittances can be effectively used to alleviate energy poverty in low and middle-income countries. Moreover, we find that income poverty, human development, institutional quality, and income inequality are important mediating channels through which remittances affect energy poverty. Our results also indicate that improved financial development and increased urbanization tend to enhance energy access. Based on our findings, several recommendations are provided to governments and policymakers for achieving sustainable development goal target 7.1, which aims to guarantee affordable, reliable, and modern energy services for all. Other Information Published in: Energy Economics License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ See article on publisher's website: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106527","wordCount":181,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Karim Barkat","Mouyad Alsamara","Karim Mimouni"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106527","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c45ec8ea61a7cf4b","title":"Scraping by: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits","abstract":"Many Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients do not find new jobs before exhausting their benefits, even when benefits are extended during recessions. Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panel data covering the 2001 and 2007 to 2009 recessions and their aftermaths, we identify individuals whose jobless spells outlasted their UI benefits (exhaustees) and examine household income, program participation, and health-related outcomes during the six months following UI exhaustion. For the average exhaustee, the loss of UI benefits is only slightly offset by increased participation in other safety net programs (e.g., food stamps), and family poverty rates rise substantially. Self-reported disability also rises following UI exhaustion. These patterns do not vary dramatically across household demographic groups, broad income level prior to job loss, or the two business cycles. The results highlight the unique, important role of UI in the U.S. social safety net.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jesse Rothstein","Robert G. Valletta"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c464efd87a4bd7ea","title":"Implicit Stereotypes: Evidence from Teachers’ Gender Bias","abstract":"I study whether exposure to teacher stereotypes, as measured by the Gender-Science Implicit Association Test, affects student achievement. I provide evidence that the gender gap in math performance, defined as the score of boys minus the score of girls in standardized tests, substantially increases when students are assigned to math teachers with stronger gender stereotypes. Teacher stereotypes induce girls to underperform in math and self-select into less demanding high schools, following the track recommendation of their teachers. These effects are at least partially driven by lower self-confidence on math ability of girls exposed to gender-biased teachers. Stereotypes impair the test performance of girls, who end up failing to achieve their full potential. I do not detect statistically significant effects on student outcomes of literature teacher stereotypes.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Michela Carlana"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz008","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c46fd7fb6a992efa","title":"Reluctant donors and their reactions to social information","abstract":"This paper examines how image concerns affect the way giving behavior responds to social information. Subjects in the laboratory decide first whether they wish to donate part of their earnings to a charity, and then, conditional on opting in, decide how much to donate. They receive information on the size of a previous donation either before or after opting in, which allows one to examine the effect of the social information on the extensive and intensive margins of giving separately, and thus distinguish self-image concerns from potential alternative mechanisms. Information on a large previous donation caused subjects to opt out, but when shown only after opt-in, the same information caused subjects to increase donation amounts and did not lead to $0 donations. As further evidence of the influence of image concerns, the reaction to the social information was found to be correlated with a preference for quietly exiting a dictator game, and with scoring high on neuroticism. The results have implications for the inferences we draw about donor motives and welfare based on changes in giving in response to social information.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["David Klinowski"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09670-y","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c47525cdf96879ec","title":"Digitizing Disclosure: The Case of Restaurant Hygiene Scores","abstract":"Collaborating with Yelp and the City of San Francisco, we revisit a canonical example of quality disclosure by evaluating and helping to redesign the posting of restaurant hygiene scores on Yelp.com . We implement a two-stage intervention that separately identifies consumer response to information disclosure and a disclosure design with improved salience—a consumer alert. We find score posting is effective, but improving salience further increases consumer response.","wordCount":67,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Weijia Dai","Michael Luca"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180293","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c47df344f3afd043","title":"Bank runs: The predeposit game","abstract":"We analyze in some detail the full predeposit game in a simple, tractable, yet very rich, banking environment. How does run-risk affect the optimal deposit contract? If there is a run equilibrium in the postdeposit game, then the optimal contract in the predeposit game tolerates small-probability runs. However, this does not mean that small changes in run-risk are ignored. In some cases, the optimal contract becomes—as one would expect—strictly more conservative as the run-probability increases (until it switches to the best run-proof contract), and the equilibrium allocation is not a mere randomization over the equilibrium allocations from the postdeposit game. In other cases, the allocation is a mere randomization over the equilibria from the postdeposit game. In the first cases (the more intuitive cases), the incentive constraint does not bind. In the second cases, the incentive constraint does bind.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Karl Shell","Yu Zhang"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000275","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4922320c38f5159","title":"Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade–induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain bounds on the effect of labor market conditions on crime. Our results indicate that this channel accounts for 75 to 93 percent of the effect of the trade–induced shocks on crime.","wordCount":131,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Rafael Dix-Carneiro","Rodrigo R. Soares","Gabriel Ulyssea"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170080","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4af7e3db707e8c6","title":"Patent hold-out and licensing frictions: Evidence from litigation of standard essential patents","abstract":"Patent “hold-out” theory posits that frictions in the market for licensing standard-essential patents (SEPs) provide incentives for prospective licensees to opportunistically delay taking licenses with the goal of avoiding or reducing royalty payments. The article finds evidence of an association between hold-out and both SEP portfolio size and enforcement uncertainty; however, we find no evidence associating pre- or in-litigation hold-out with the international breadth of SEP rights. The theory of patent “hold-out” posits that frictions in the market for licensing standard-essential patents (SEPs) provide incentives for prospective licensees to opportunistically delay taking licenses with the goal of avoiding or reducing royalty payments. We construct measures of pre- and in-litigation hold-out from information disclosed in U.S. cases filed 2010–2019. Relying on both SEP and a matched control set of non-SEP disputes, we explore whether frictions in the market for licensing are associated with hold-out. We find some evidence of an association between hold-out and both SEP portfolio size and enforcement uncertainty; however, we find no evidence associating pre- or in-litigation hold-out with the international breadth of SEP rights.","wordCount":177,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Brian J. Love","Christian Helmers"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102978","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c4afef08332e3d45","title":"Wealth-Income Ratios in a Small, Developing Economy: Sweden, 1810–2014","abstract":"This study uses new data on Swedish national wealth over the last two hundred years to examine whether the patterns in wealth-income ratios found by Piketty and Zucman (2014) extend to small and less developed economies. The findings reveal both similarities and differences. During the industrialization era, Sweden's domestic wealth was relatively low because of low saving rates and instead foreign capital imports became important. Twentieth-century trends and levels are more similar, but in Sweden government wealth grew more important, not least through its relatively large public pension system. Overall, the findings suggest that initial conditions and economic and political institutions matter for the structure and evolution of national wealth.","wordCount":110,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Daniel Waldenström"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000080","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4b6253b224c9597","title":"Endogenous demographic change, retirement, and social security","abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the effects of demographic change on a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system, financed with a defined contribution scheme. In particular, we examine the relationship between retirement, fertility, and pensions in a three-period overlapping generations model. We focus on both the case of mandatory retirement and the case where the retirement age is freely chosen. In the case of mandatory retirement, increasing longevity has an unambiguously negative impact on fertility and pension payouts and a positive effect on the level of physical capital in the steady state. On the other hand, when agents choose the time of retirement, an increase in life expectancy positively affects physical capital only when the tax rate is sufficiently low and can have a positive impact on pension benefits, because agents may find it optimal to retire later and to decrease fertility less. Finally, the effects of the social security tax on capital per worker are negative with mandatory retirement; however, they could be positive in the optimal retirement case.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Giam Pietro Cipriani","Tamara Fioroni"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000269","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4c1767fab3aae2e","title":"The Effect of Cash, Vouchers, and Food Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Northern Ecuador","abstract":"Using a randomized experiment in Ecuador, this study provides evidence on whether cash, vouchers, and food transfers targeted to women and intended to reduce poverty and food insecurity also affected intimate partner violence. Results indicate that transfers reduce controlling behaviors and physical and/or sexual violence by 6 to 7 percentage points. Impacts do not vary by transfer modality, which provides evidence that transfers not only have the potential to decrease violence in the short-term, but also that cash is just as effective as in-kind transfers.","wordCount":85,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Mélissa Hidrobo","Amber Peterman","Lori Heise"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150048","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4cfd63ae5ed56f7","title":"The price paid: Heuristic thinking and biased reference points in the housing market","abstract":"Does the power of reference points mean that minute differences in a purchase price then reverberate in future sales prices? In this research, I show that if previous sales prices are round numbers, defined as multiples of £1,000 (e.g. £231,000), subsequent sales prices entail a considerable premium relative to similar properties that were previously priced at charm numbers that are marginally below those round numbers (e.g. £230,999 or £230,950). Using a sample of repeat sales from the Greater London region from 1995 to 2017, I estimate the premium to be approximately 4 percent after controlling for property characteristics and a large set of fixed effects. Increasing public accessibility of information attenuates the effect. Tax considerations, financial constraints, and pricing errors cannot explain the result. I propose a framework of reference dependence and left-digit bias to explain the result, highlighting the presence of behavioural biases in household decisions, even when very high stakes are involved.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Charlotte Chunming Meng"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103514","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c4d5394551f666b6","title":"Party affiliation and public spending: Evidence from u.s. Governors","abstract":"This paper investigates whether the party affiliation of governors (Democrat or Republican) has an impact on the allocation of state expenditures. Exploiting gubernatorial election results from 1960 to 2012 and a Regression Discontinuity Design ( RDD ), we find that Democratic governors allocate a larger share of their budget to health/hospitals and education sectors. We find no significant impact of the political party of governors on total spending, only on the allocation of funds. The results are robust to a wide range of controls and model specifications.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Louis‐Philippe Beland","Sara Oloomi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12393","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4dee6b1bcfec3ef","title":"Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with item‐level outcome data: Insights from Item Response Theory","abstract":"Analyses of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) are common in applied causal inference research. However, when outcomes are latent variables assessed via psychometric instruments such as educational tests, standard methods ignore the potential HTE that may exist among the individual items of the outcome measure. Failing to account for “item‐level” HTE (IL‐HTE) can lead to both underestimated standard errors and identification challenges in the estimation of treatment‐by‐covariate interaction effects. We demonstrate how Item Response Theory (IRT) models that estimate a treatment effect for each assessment item can both address these challenges and provide new insights into HTE generally. This study articulates the theoretical rationale for the IL‐HTE model and demonstrates its practical value using 75 datasets from 48 randomized controlled trials containing 5.8 million item responses in economics, education, and health research. Our results show that the IL‐HTE model reveals item‐level variation masked by single‐number scores, provides more meaningful standard errors in many settings, allows for estimates of the generalizability of causal effects to untested items, resolves identification problems in the estimation of interaction effects, and provides estimates of standardized treatment effect sizes corrected for attenuation due to measurement error.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Joshua B. Gilbert","Zachary Himmelsbach","James Soland","Mridul Joshi","Benjamin W. Domingue"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4e67333b71f1c26","title":"The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy","abstract":"We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank’s deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency (CBDC) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the other side, a negative bank disintermediation effect. The optimal amount of CBDC lies between 15 and 45 percent of quarterly GDP.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Lorenzo Burlón","Manuel A. Muñoz","Frank Smets"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220152","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c4ee16215b48f5d9","title":"Building versus maintaining a perceived confidence-based tax climate: Experimental evidence","abstract":"A confidence-based climate between public administrations and citizens is essential. This paper argues and provides empirical evidence that depending on the perceived interaction history, different policies are needed to build versus maintain confidence. Applying the extended Slippery Slope Framework of tax compliance, an online and a laboratory experiment were conducted to explore whether tax authorities’ coercive and legitimate power have different effects depending on whether they are situated in an antagonism-based or confidence-based climate. Results showed that in an antagonism-based interaction climate, a combination of high coercive and high legitimate power changed the climate into a confidence-based interaction climate. In contrast, in a confidence-based climate the same power combination did not maintain but erode the climate. Results also suggest that confidence-based climates are maintained by low coercive power combined with high legitimate power. The paper concludes that interaction climates operate as psychological frames which guide how policy instruments affect taxpayers’ trust in the tax authorities.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Katharina Gangl","W. van Dijk","Eric van Dijk","Eva Hofmann"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102310","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c4ee2e3c43fc38ed","title":"Liquidity and clientele effects in green debt markets","abstract":"We jointly model green and regular bond markets. Green bonds can improve allocative efficiency and lower financing costs for green projects, but economies of scale, like liquidity fragmentation, may cause friction. Consequently, profitable and welfare-enhancing projects, green and brown, can be rationed in equilibrium. Rationing green projects happens with a shortage of climate investors, large non-monetary offsets, and/or costly fragmentation. Rationing regular projects can happen with a shortage of regular investors, but also with an abundance, when more profitable green projects crowd out regular ones. We propose an alternative security design that preserves green earmarking but prevents fragmentation.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Dion Bongaerts","Dirk Schoenmaker"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102582","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c4efaf110e30aa0d","title":"Impact of power outages on households in developing countries: Evidence from Ethiopia","abstract":"In developing countries, access to electricity has received much attention. However, the reliability of its supply has been given less focus, though power outages happen frequently and are expected to limit gains from electricity connection. In this paper, I go beyond electricity connection and provide an average estimate of monthly defensive expenditures at different monthly hours of power outages for urban households in Ethiopia, using the generalized propensity score method. I also elicit households' willingness to pay for improved electricity supply, using a stated preference method, to account for non-monetary costs of outages. Based on the average estimated results, a back-of-the-envelope calculation for urban households of Ethiopia with electricity connection provides a monthly defensive expenditure of US$14.8 million and a monthly willingness to pay of US$6.2 million for improved electricity supply, on top of the regular electricity bill. The study underscores that connection to electricity is not enough; the reliability of its supply is also important.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Tensay Hadush Meles"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104882","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c50ca15c398b2d47","title":"Who Benefited from Industrialization? The Local Effects of Hydropower Technology Adoption in Norway","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of the construction of hydropower facilities on labor market outcomes in Norway at the turn of the twentieth century (1891–1920). The sudden breakthrough in hydropower technology provides a quasi-experimental setting, as not all municipalities had suitable natural endowments and the possible production sites were often located in remote areas. We find that hydropower municipalities experienced faster structural transformation and displayed higher occupational mobility. We interpret this as evidence that this early twentieth-century technology was skill biased, as workers in the new skilled jobs were recruited from a broad segment of the population.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Stefan Leknes","Jørgen Modalsli"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000743","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c5135814de4b3f8a","title":"Long-Term Effects of Childhood Nutrition: Evidence from a School Lunch Reform","abstract":"We study the long-term impact of a policy-driven change in childhood nutrition. For this purpose, we evaluate a program that rolled out nutritious school lunches free of charge to all pupils in Swedish primary schools between 1959 and 1969. We estimate the impact of the program on children’s economic, educational, and health outcomes throughout life. Our results show that the school lunch program generated substantial long-term benefits, where pupils exposed to the program during their entire primary school period have 3% higher lifetime income. The effect was greater for pupils that were exposed at earlier ages and for pupils from poor households, suggesting that the program reduced socioeconomic inequalities in adulthood. Exposure to the program also had substantial effects on educational attainment and health, which can explain a large part of the effect of the program on lifetime income.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Petter Lundborg","Dan‐Olof Rooth","Jesper Alex-Petersen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab028","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c52d8c960c80722a","title":"An Economic Rationale for the West African Scramble? The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1835–1885","abstract":"We use a new trade dataset showing that nineteenth century sub-Saharan Africa experienced a terms of trade boom comparable to other parts of the “global periphery.” A sharp rise in export prices in the five decades before the scramble (1835–1885) was followed by an equally impressive decline during the colonial era. This study revises the view that the scramble for West Africa occurred when its major export markets were in decline and argues that the larger weight of West Africa in French imperial trade strengthened the rationale for French instead of British initiative in the conquest of the interior.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Ewout Frankema","Jeffrey G. Williamson","Pieter Woltjer"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000128","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c53d469623399595","title":"ICT adoption and income diversification among rural households in China","abstract":"Although the determinants of income diversification have been widely examined in the literature, little is known about whether and how information and communication technology (ICT) adoption affects household income diversification. To fill in this gap, this paper examines the impact of ICT adoption on income diversification among rural households in China, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Labour-force Dynamics Survey project. We employ a two-stage treatment effects model to address the potential selection bias issue associated with ICT adoption. The empirical results show that ICT adoption exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on income diversification. Further analyses reveal that ICT adoption is more beneficial to low-income rural households and those residing in eastern and central parts of China when it plays a role in diversifying rural income. Our findings suggest that improving rural education and infrastructure such as roads and broadband facilities can help enhance ICT adoption among rural households, which subsequently increases income diversification.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Chenxin Leng","Wanglin Ma","Jianjun Tang","Zhongkun Zhu"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1715338","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c5498370864a77be","title":"How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions","abstract":"Despite dozens of studies, research on crime has struggled to reach consensus about the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) gun laws. With this in mind, we formalize and apply a class of bounded-variation assumptions that flexibly restrict the degree to which outcomes may vary across time and space. Using these assumptions, we present empirical analysis of the effect of RTC laws on violent and property crimes in Virginia, Maryland, and Illinois. Imposing specific assumptions that we believe worthy of consideration, we find that RTC laws increase some crimes, decrease other crimes, and have effects that vary over time for others.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Charles F. Manski","John V. Pepper"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00689","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c552404bbd307638","title":"Are cryptos different? Evidence from retail trading","abstract":"Trading in cryptocurrencies grew rapidly over the last decade, dominated by retail investors. Using data from eToro, we show that retail traders are contrarian in stocks and gold, yet the same traders follow a momentum-like strategy in cryptocurrencies. The differences are not explained by individual characteristics, investor composition, inattention, differences in fees, or preference for lottery-like assets. We conjecture that retail investors have a model where cryptocurrency price changes affect the likelihood of future widespread adoption, which leads them to further update their price expectations in the same direction.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Shimon Kogan","Igor Makarov","Marina Niessner","Antoinette Schoar"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103897","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c555c72fc50b5d94","title":"Escaping the exchange of information: Tax evasion via citizenship-by-investment","abstract":"With automatic exchange of tax information among countries now common, tax evaders have had to find new ways to hide their offshore holdings. One such way is citizenship-by-investment, which offers foreigners a new passport for a local investment or a fixed fee. We show analytically that high-income individuals acquire a new citizenship to lower the probability that their tax evasion is detected through information exchange. Using data on cross-border bank deposits, we find that deposits in tax havens increase after a country starts offering a citizenship-by-investment program, providing indirect evidence that tax evaders use these programs.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Dominika Langenmayr","Lennard Zyska"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104865","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c55c3e44bc687558","title":"Illegal Migration and Consumption Behavior of Immigrant Households","abstract":"We analyze the effect of immigrants’ legal status on their consumption behavior using unique survey \\ndata that samples both documented and undocumented immigrants. To address the problem of \\nsorting into legal status, we propose two alternative identification strategies as exogenous source of \\nvariation for current legal status: First, transitory income shocks in the home country, measured as \\nrainfall shocks at the time of emigration. Second, amnesty quotas that [grant] residence status to \\nundocumented immigrants. Both sources of variation create a strong first stage, and—although very \\ndifferent in nature—lead to similar estimates of the effects of illegal status on consumption, with \\nundocumented immigrants consuming about 40% less than documented immigrants, conditional on \\nbackground characteristics. Roughly one quarter of this decrease is explained by undocumented \\nimmigrants having lower incomes than documented immigrants. Our findings imply that legalization \\nprograms may have a potentially important effect on immigrants’ consumption behavior, with \\nconsequences for both the source and host countries.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Christian Dustmann","Francesco Fasani","Biagio Speciale"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw017","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c565046613935f60","title":"Have international pollution protocols made a difference?","abstract":"Evaluating the effectiveness of international agreements is inherently difficult due to problems such as self-selection, spillovers, anticipation effects, and aggregate-level data. In this paper, I provide new and arguably more credible estimates on the effects of three major pollution protocols on SO2, NOx, and VOC emissions. I do so by combining a newly available global dataset on emissions dating back to 1970 with a generalized version of the synthetic control method. By constructing “synthetic” controls that mimic the pre-treatment development of each affected country, I mitigate bias caused by self-selection and non-parallel emission trends. The broader data coverage - both geographically and over time - allows me to examine the importance of spillovers and anticipation effects. Results from the estimation show that all three protocols induced emissions reductions well beyond a (synthetic) counterfactual development.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Elisabeth Thuestad Isaksen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102358","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c56736f44fe656f1","title":"Making their own weather? Estimating employer labour-market power and its wage effects","abstract":"The subdued wage growth observed in many countries has spurred interest in monopsony views of regional labour markets. This study measures the extent and robustness of employer power and its wage implications exploiting comprehensive matched employer–employee data. We find average (employment-weighted) Herfindhal indices of 800 to 1,100, stable over the 1986–2019 period covered, and that typically less than 8% of workers are exposed to concentration levels thought to raise market power concerns. When controlling for both worker and firm heterogeneity and instrumenting for concentration, we find that wages are negatively affected by employer concentration, with elasticities of around −1.4%. We also find that several methodological choices can change significantly both the measurement of concentration and its wage effects.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Pedro S. Martins","António Melo"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103614","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c569058e308aa432","title":"The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending","abstract":"Technology-based (“FinTech”) lenders increased their market share of U.S. mortgage lending from 2% to 8% from 2010 to 2016. Using loan-level data on mortgage applications and originations, we show that FinTech lenders process mortgage applications 20% faster than other lenders, controlling for observable characteristics. Faster processing does not come at the cost of higher defaults. FinTech lenders adjust supply more elastically than do other lenders in response to exogenous mortgage demand shocks. In areas with more FinTech lending, borrowers refinance more, especially when it is in their interest. We find no evidence that FinTech lenders target borrowers with low access to finance.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Andreas Fuster","Matthew Plosser","Philipp Schnabl","James Vickery"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c56d4d5a71a0ee26","title":"The Restructuring of South American Soy and Beef Production and Trade Under Changing Environmental Regulations","abstract":"In response to the extensive loss of forests caused by soy and cattle expansion in South America, several countries have increased their legal restrictions on deforestation, and stepped up their enforcement. In addition, in the Brazilian Amazon, new private agreements were initiated in 2006 and 2009 to limit the purchase of soy and cattle linked with deforestation. One concern is that such policies, because they are spatially heterogeneous or focus on a subset of relevant actors, might generate negative spillovers in the form of leakage of agricultural activities and deforestation to less-regulated areas, and/or a redistribution of non-compliant product sales to non-participants. In this study, we use panel data on soy and beef production and trade in agricultural frontiers of South America to examine how changes in deforestation regulations in South America have altered soy and cattle expansion and exports in this region, and to understand how these changes, if they have occurred, influence the overall effectiveness of deforestation regulations. We find no evidence of a change in soy or pasture area expansion patterns due to changes in regulations, except within the Amazon biome where pasture expansion slowed in response to more stringent regulations and coincided with pasture intensification. We do find, however, a decrease in beef imports from biomes with more stringent deforestation regulations. While this decrease may indicate the existence of leakage to countries outside the study area, it is likely offset by pasture intensification, continued opportunities for deforestation, and increasing domestic consumption from these biomes. These results point to the potential role of substitution effects between local and international consumer markets, and between different actors, in diminishing the overall effectiveness of deforestation regulations.","wordCount":276,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Yann le Polain de Waroux","Rachael Garrett","Jordan Graesser","Christoph Nolte","Christopher White","Éric F. Lambin"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.034","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c58c5cef52acba25","title":"The Threat of Rent Extraction in a Resource-constrained Future","abstract":"Ecological economists aim to transform our economic institutions so that society can flourish within planetary boundaries. The central message of this article is that private rent extraction forms a key barrier to the realisation of that goal.\\n\\n\\n\\nI define rent as an economic reward which is sustained through control of assets that cannot be quickly and widely replicated, and which exceeds proportionate compensation for the labour of the recipient. I argue that unless we close opportunities for rent extraction, and socialise unavoidable rents, our governments will be compelled to pursue output growth, regardless of its environmental consequences, in order to prevent spiralling inequality and unemployment.\\n\\n\\n\\nThe positive proposition in this article is that the concept of rent can help us to identify, and build democratic support for, the institutional transformations necessary to prepare for a resource-constrained future. Measures to reduce and redistribute rentier power could be emancipatory for the poorest in society, whilst making more feasible many proposals that have been advocated already in this journal, including reduced working hours and resource caps.\\n\\n\\n\\nBy contrast, if environmental protections are introduced before opportunities for private rent extraction are closed, we could see intensified rent-seeking, asset price bubbles, poverty and economic insecurity.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["B. S. Stratford"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106524","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c5b27bc6b1ef4a91","title":"The impact of automatic enrolment on the mental health gap in pension participation: Evidence from the UK","abstract":"A large body of evidence shows that individuals with poor mental health have lower income over the lifespan but a dearth of evidence exists on how poor mental health affects savings behaviour. In this paper, we provide novel evidence of a mental health gap in pension participation in the UK using nationally representative longitudinal data from Understanding Society (UKHLS). Beginning in 2012, the UK government introduced automatic enrolment enabling us to assess the impact of one of the largest pension policy reforms in the world on this mental health gap. We measure mental health using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) which is a commonly used tool for measuring psychological distress. Prior to automatic enrolment, we find that male private sector employees with poor mental health are 3.7 percentage points less likely to participate in a workplace pension scheme while female private sector employees with poor mental health are 2.9 percentage points less likely to participate after controlling for key observables including age, education, race, marital status, number of children, occupation type, industry type, presence of a physical health condition and cognitive ability. The implementation of automatic enrolment removes the mental health gap in pension participation, equalising the pension participation rates of individuals with and without poor mental health in the private sector.","wordCount":212,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Karen Arulsamy","Liam Delaney"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102673","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c5c31213d1659f1f","title":"Government debt and risk premia","abstract":"Risk premia increase with government debt. Debt-to-GDP ratios positively predict stock returns at short and long horizons in the U.S. and other advanced economies. Higher debt is also associated with higher bond premia and lower risk-free rates. Major government debt theories (liquidity, safety, crowding out) either do not address or are inconsistent with these findings. New evidence suggests that the increased risk premia provide compensation for larger fiscal risk; during periods of elevated debt, fiscal policy becomes more uncertain and less effective and can lead to debt crises. I quantify these mechanisms in an equilibrium model.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Yang Liu"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c5ca0c952bb25db4","title":"The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters","abstract":"We investigate economic causes of the rising support of populist parties in industrialised countries. Looking at Germany, we find that exposure to imports from low-wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987–2009, while increasing exports have the opposite effect. The net effect translates into increasing support of the right-populist Alternative for Germany party after its emergence in 2013. Individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that low-skilled manufacturing workers’ political preferences are most responsive to trade exposure. Using a novel approach to causal mediation analysis, we identify trade-induced labour market adjustments as an economic mechanism causing the voting response to international trade.","wordCount":105,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Christian Dippel","Robert Gold","Stephan Heblich","Rodrigo Pinto"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab041","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c5e2c5c1ee20b103","title":"Inference on Difference-in-Differences average treatment effects: A fixed-<mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\" id=\"d1e13581\" altimg=\"si796.gif\"><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:math> approach","abstract":"This paper provides an analysis of the standard errors proposed by Driscoll and Kraay (1998) (DK) in linear Difference-in-Differences (DD) models with fixed effects and individual-specific time trends. The analysis is accomplished within the fixed- b asymptotic framework developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2005) for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance matrix estimator based tests. For both the fixed- N , large- T , and large- N , large- T cases, it is shown that fixed- b asymptotic distributions of test statistics constructed using the DD estimator and the DK standard errors are different from the results found by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2005) and Vogelsang (2012). The newly derived fixed- b asymptotic distributions depend on the date of policy change, individual-specific trend functions as well as the choice of kernel and bandwidth. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the performance of the fixed- b approximations in practice.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Yu Sun","Karen X. Yan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.04.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c5eb755e07b4daa3","title":"Household saving, financial constraints, and the current account in china","abstract":"In this article, we present a model that can account for the changes in the current account balance in China since the 2000s. Our results suggest that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one‐child policy led to large increases in the household saving rate. These increases coupled with the financial frictions preventing the household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluses until 2008. Relaxation of financial constraints, on the other hand, was responsible for the decline in the current account surplus after 2008.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Ayşe İmrohoroğlu","Kai Zhao"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12417","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c5f0158c8d4f8123","title":"Counteroffers and Price Discrimination in Mortgage Lending","abstract":"New regulations and digitalization can reduce the rate differential. This study analyzes price discrimination and household switching in the residential mortgage market. Using a unique proprietary micro dataset from Norway, we examine the factors that influence a bank’s choice to counter an offer from a competing bank and the difference between the loan rate paid by current clients when receiving a competing offer from another bank and the concurrent best rate offered to new customers by the current bank. The estimates show that a bank employs internal information to decide how to counter a competing offer and that current clients pay approximately 20 basis points more than new customers. We surmise that new regulations and digitalization enhance transparency and can reduce the rate differential. However, introducing new banking products and changes in the timing of rate differentiation —from immediate upfront to gradually over time —may be used to maintain a constant rate differential.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Steven Ongena","Florentina Paraschiv","Endre J. Reite"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101431","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c5f663af4d10aa25","title":"Is Information Enough? The Effect of Information about Education Tax Benefits on Student Outcomes","abstract":"There is increasing evidence that tax benefits for college do not affect college enrollment. This may be because prospective students do not know about tax benefits for college or because the design of tax benefits is not conducive to affecting educational outcomes. We focus on changing awareness of tax benefits by providing information to students or prospective students. We sent e‐mails and letters to students that described tax benefits for college, and we tracked college outcomes. For all three of our samples—rising high school seniors, already enrolled students, and students who had previously applied to college but were not currently enrolled—information about tax benefits for college did not affect enrollment or reenrollment. We test whether effects vary according to information frames and found that no treatment arms changed student outcomes. We conclude that awareness is not the primary reason that tax benefits for college do not affect enrollment.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Peter Bergman","Jeffrey T. Denning","Dayanand Manoli"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22131","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c5fd68e94da3074a","title":"Foreign Human Capital and Total Factor Productivity: A Sectoral Approach","abstract":"We analyze the role of migrants in productivity growth in the three largest European countries—France, Germany and the United Kingdom—in the years 1994–2007, using Total Factor Productivity. Unlike previous research, which mainly employs a regional approach, our analysis is at the sectoral level: this allows to distinguish the real contribution of migrants to productivity from possible inter‐sectoral complementarities, which might also foster growth. We control for the share of migrants and the different components of human‐capital, such as education, age and diversity, and adopt instrumental variables strategies to address the possible endogeneity of migration. The results show that migrants contribute to the productivity of the sectors in which they are employed, but with important differences: highly‐educated migrants show a larger positive effect in high‐tech sectors, and to a lesser extent in services sector. The diversity of countries of origin contributes to productivity growth only in the services sectors.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Claudio Fassio","Sona Kalantaryan","Alessandra Venturini"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12426","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c602581580888cde","title":"Aggregation mechanisms for crowd predictions","abstract":"When the information of many individuals is pooled, the resulting aggregate often is a good predictor of unknown quantities or facts. This aggregate predictor frequently outperforms the forecasts of experts or even the best individual forecast included in the aggregation process (\"wisdom of crowds\"). However, an appropriate aggregation mechanism is considered crucial to reaping the benefits of a \"wise crowd\". Of the many possible ways to aggregate individual forecasts, we compare (uncensored and censored) arithmetic and geometric mean and median, continuous double auction market prices and sealed bid-offer call market prices in a controlled experiment. We use an asymmetric information structure, where participants know different sub-sets of the total information needed to exactly calculate the asset value to be estimated. We find that prices from continuous double auction markets clearly outperform all alternative approaches for aggregating dispersed information and that information lets only the best-informed participants generate excess returns.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Stefan Palan","Jürgen Huber","Larissa Senninger"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09631-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c60ad9d924a509bd","title":"A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016","abstract":"This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 – 2016 for the United Kingdom. Sign restrictions derived from a workhorse Keynesian model are used to identify the signs of those shocks. We compare the 30 largest shocks implied by a vector autoregressive model in unemployment and inflation with the narrative historical record. Our approach provides a new perspective on well-known events in economic history. We highlight two episodes of particular interest: an aggregate supply shock in the late 1920s, which we attribute to changes in the bargaining power of labor, and positive aggregate demand shocks in the mid-1970s, which we attribute to fiscal policy.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Robert Calvert Jump","Karsten Köhler"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101448","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c619fe870bca2a48","title":"House price bubbles under the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"We analyze bubble formations in house prices under the COVID-19 pandemic in 382 metropolitan areas in the U.S. with a special attention to the role of population density. We use a robust sieve-bootstrap version of the right-tailed unit root test procedure to identify periods of explosiveness in price-rent ratios across metro areas when controlling for fundamentals such as mortgage debt financing costs and the wealth of households. The bubble tests reveal evidence of explosive house prices during the COVID-19 pandemic but with important cross-area differences. In contrast to earlier bubble episodes, we find that the frequency and size of bubble formations under the pandemic have been stronger in low-density metro areas compared to high-density metro areas.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Jacob H. Hansen","Stig V. Møller","Thomas Pedersen","Christian Schütte"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101462","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c62807989b172c6e","title":"Longevity and technological change","abstract":"We analyze the impact of increasing longevity on technological progress within an overlapping generations research and development (R&D)-based growth framework and test the model's implication on Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data from 1960 to 2011. The central hypothesis is that—by raising the incentives of households to invest in physical capital and in R&D—decreasing mortality positively affects technological progress and productivity growth. The empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction. This implies that the demographic changes we observed in industrialized economies over the last decades were not detrimental to economic prosperity, at least as far as technological progress and productivity growth are concerned.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Agnieszka Gehringer","Klaus Prettner"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000293","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c632cef03b81ba73","title":"Does competition from private surgical centres improve public hospitals' performance? Evidence from the English National Health Service","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of a government programme which facilitated the entry of for-profit surgical centres to compete against incumbent National Health Service hospitals in England. We examine the impact of competition from these surgical centres on the efficiency – measured by pre-surgery length of stay for hip and knee replacement patients – and case mix of incumbent public hospitals. We exploit the fact that the government chose the broad locations where these surgical centres (Independent Sector Treatment Centres or ISTCs) would be built based on local patient waiting times – not length of stay or clinical quality – to construct treatment and control groups that are comparable with respect to key outcome variables of interest. Using a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, we find that the government-facilitated entry of surgical centres led to shorter pre-surgery length of stay at nearby public hospitals. However, these new entrants took on healthier patients and left incumbent hospitals treating patients who were sicker. This paper highlights a potential trade-off that policymakers face when they promote competition from private, for-profit firms in markets for the provision of public services.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Zack Cooper","Stephen Gibbons","M. P. Skellern"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.08.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c63c2bee0f5d2ddc","title":"Does increasing environmental policy stringency lead to accelerated environmental innovation? A research note","abstract":"This research note empirically investigates the effect of stringent environmental regulations on environmentally friendly technological innovation for 27 OECD countries from 1990 to 2015, using the two-step system-GMM estimation method for a linear dynamic panel data model. We further test the robustness of the empirical results by the method of correlated random effects for dynamic panel data estimated by Maximum Likelihood, the fixed effect with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and the mixed-effect maximum-likelihood estimator. Overall, we find that increasing environmental policy stringency leads to accelerated environmental innovation. In addition, the non-market-based environmental policy instruments are found to stimulate more environmental innovation than market -based instruments. Thus, the instruments based on command and control policies are more effective than price mechanisms in inducing eco-innovation.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Mahmoud Hassan","Damien Rousselière"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1983146","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c648c5674661126f","title":"Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City","abstract":"During the last decade, while national homicide rates have remained flat, New York City has experienced a second great crime decline, with gun violence declining by more than 50 percent since 2011. In this paper, we investigate one potential explanation for this dramatic and unexpected improvement in public safety—the New York Police Department's shift to a more surgical form of “precision policing,” in which law enforcement focuses resources on a small number of individuals who are thought to be the primary drivers of violence. We study New York City's campaign of “gang takedowns” in which suspected members of criminal gangs were arrested in highly coordinated raids and prosecuted on conspiracy charges. We show that gun violence in and around public housing communities fell by approximately one third in the first year after a gang takedown. Our estimates imply that gang takedowns explain nearly one quarter of the decline in gun violence in New York City's public housing communities over the last eight years.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Aaron Chalfin","Michael LaForest","Jacob Kaplan"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22323","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c654d0abbf0f7d82","title":"The effectiveness of ’in-market’ and ’out-of-market’ liberalization policies. Evidence from Indian produce markets","abstract":"Do market liberalization policies result in more efficient markets, increase competition and change market outcomes for the trading parties? In this paper I examine two types of liberalization policies, those aimed at increasing competition and efficiency within the existing regulated market, and those allowing competing channels outside of the regulated system. Studying a marketing channel reform in Indian agricultural produce markets, which consisted of both ‘in-market amendments’ and ‘out-of- market amendments’ adopted in different combinations and timing by the Indian states, I evaluate the effectiveness of the reforms in improving the bargaining power of farmers vis-a-vis the licensed traders in the regulated markets. I find an average 3 % overall increase in prices obtained by farmers following the reform in total, and 12 % for storable crops. While apparently much harder to pass, in-market reforms appears to be driving most of the change while the effect for out-of-market reforms is mostly insignificant.","wordCount":152,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Beáta Itin-Shwartz"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103234","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c67402ae7d5582b1","title":"Reading for Life and Adolescent Re‐Arrest: Evaluating a Unique Juvenile Diversion Program","abstract":"We present results of an evaluation of Reading for Life (RFL), a diversion program for nonviolent juvenile offenders in a medium‐sized Midwestern county. The unique program uses philosophical virtue theory, works of literature, and small mentoring groups to foster moral development in juvenile offenders. Participants were randomly assigned to RFL treatment or a comparison program of community service. The RFL program generated large and statistically significant drops in future arrests. The program was particularly successful at reducing the recidivism of more serious offenses and for those groups with the highest propensity for future offenses.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["A. D. Seroczynski","William N. Evans","Amy D. Jobst","Luke Horvath","Giuliana Carozza"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21916","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c67678ac69a6e86c","title":"Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem’s LTRO","abstract":"We exploit the Eurosystem’s longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) of 2011–2012 to assess whether a large provision of central bank liquidity to banks during a financial crisis has a positive impact on banks’ credit supply to firms. We control for credit demand by examining firms that borrow from several banks, in addition to controlling for confounding factors at the level of banks. We find that the LTROs enhanced loan supply: according to our baseline estimate, banks borrowing 1 billion euros from the facility increased their loan supply by 186 million euros over one year. We also find that the transmission mostly took place with the first operation of December 2011, in which banks that were more capital constrained bid more. Moreover, we show that the opportunity to substitute long-term central bank liquidity for short-term liquidity enhanced this transmission. Lastly, the operations benefited larger borrowers more and did not lead banks to increase their lending to riskier firms.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Philippe Andrade","Christophe Cahn","Henri Fraisse","Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c67ba6eba854dd89","title":"The Contribution of Intangible Assets to Sectoral Productivity Growth in the EU","abstract":"In this paper, we report on new data on intangible investment at the level of one‐digit NACE industries of ten European Union (EU) countries. The data are constructed as a sectoral breakdown by using as control totals the INTAN‐Invest database, which contains measures of intangible investment at the level of the aggregate business sector. With the sectoral data, we assess the contribution of intangibles to productivity growth based on growth accounting and econometric estimation of production functions. The growth accounting contribution of intangibles to labor productivity growth is generally highest in manufacturing and finance. The estimated output elasticity of intangibles lies between 0.1 and 0.2, above factor shares but considerably below values found in previous research using aggregate data.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Thomas Niebel","Mary O’Mahony","Marianne Saam"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","M","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12248","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c69c8ad75c551d95","title":"The effects of medical marijuana dispensaries on adverse opioid outcomes","abstract":"As more states enact laws liberalizing marijuana use and the U.S. opioid epidemic surges to unprecedented levels, understanding the relationship between marijuana and opioids is growing increasingly important. Using a unique self‐constructed marijuana dispensary dataset, I estimate the impact of increased marijuana access on opioid‐related harms. I exploit within‐ and across‐state variation in dispensary openings and find county‐level prescription opioid‐related fatalities decline by 11% following the opening a dispensary. The estimated dispensary effects are qualitatively similar for opioid‐related admissions to treatment facilities. These results are strongest for males and suggest a substitutability between marijuana and opioids.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Rhet A. Smith"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12825","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c6aefd84e1616027","title":"Heterogeneous risk and time preferences","abstract":"Assessing individuals’ time and risk preferences is crucial in domains such as health-related decisions (e.g., dieting, addictions), environmentally-friendly practices, and saving opportunities. We propose a new method to jointly elicit and estimate risk attitudes and intertemporal choices. We use a novel individual level estimation procedure based on a hierarchical Bayes methodology, which can integrate different functional forms for discounting and risk attitudes. This method provides individual level estimates, and allows us to explore the heterogeneity in the data. In addition, we report a negative correlation between risk and time preferences, implying that risk-seeking individuals are less patient and less willing to defer consumption.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Alina Ferecatu","Ayşe Öncüler"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9243-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c6b3d02bb637c394","title":"Corporate Control around the World","abstract":"We study corporate control tracing controlling shareholders for thousands of listed firms from 127 countries over 2004 to 2012. Government and family control is pervasive in civil‐law countries. Blocks are commonplace, but less so in common‐law countries. These patterns apply to large, medium, and small firms. In contrast, the development‐control nexus is heterogeneous; strong for large but absent for small firms. Control correlates strongly with shareholder protection, the stringency of employment contracts and unions power. Conversely, the correlations with creditor rights, legal formalism, and entry regulation appear weak. These patterns support both legal origin and political theories of financial development.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Gur Aminadav","Elias Papaioannou"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12889","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c6b6ff0c3fecf371","title":"Dynamic panel data modelling using maximum likelihood: an alternative to Arellano-Bond","abstract":"The Arellano-Bond estimator is widely used among applied researchers when estimating dynamic panels with fixed effects and predetermined regressors. This estimator might behave poorly in finite samples when the cross-section dimension of the data is small (i.e. small N), especially if the variables under analysis are persistent over time. This paper discusses a maximum likelihood estimator that is asymptotically equivalent to Arellano and Bond (1991) but presents better finite sample behaviour. The estimator is based on an alternative parametrization of the likelihood function introduced in Moral-Benito (2013). Moreover, it is easy to implement in Stata using the xtdpdml command as described in a companion paper published in the Stata Journal, which also discusses further advantages of the proposed estimator for practitioners.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Enrique Moral‐Benito","Paul D. Allison","Richard Williams"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1540854","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c6b7190ae8d83b22","title":"Matching to share risk","abstract":"We consider a matching model in which individuals belonging to two populations (“males” and “females”) can match to share their exogenous income risk. Within each population, individuals can be ranked by risk aversion in the Arrow–Pratt sense. The model permits nontransferable utility, a context in which few general results have previously been derived. We show that in this framework a stable matching always exists, it is generically unique, and it is negatively assortative: for any two matched couples, the more risk averse male is matched with the less risk averse female.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Pierre‐André Chiappori","Philip J. Reny"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1914","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c6b873f7b82d99aa","title":"Antitakeover Provisions and Firm Value: New Evidence from the M&A Market","abstract":"New evidence from acquisition decisions suggests that antitakeover provisions (ATPs) may increase firm value when internal corporate governance is sufficiently strong. We document that, in Germany, firms with stronger ATPs, and particularly supermajority provisions, are better acquirers. Managers of high-ATP firms create value in acquisitions by making governance-improving deals. They are more likely to engage in acquisitions that reduce their own entrenchment level and less likely to invest in declining industries. The empirical evidence is consistent with a short-termist interpretation. Takeover threats can induce myopic investment decisions, which ATPs can mitigate. They lead managers to engage more often in value-creating long-term and innovative investing, and increase a firm's sensitivity to investment opportunities. Our findings contribute to a growing literature challenging conventional wisdom that the agency-increasing effect of ATPs empirically dominates the myopia-eliminating effect, suggesting that a more contextual view of the value implications of ATPs is necessary.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Wolfgang Drobetz","Paul P. Momtaz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101594","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c6bb7eb348b942aa","title":"Elite persistence and inequality in the Danish West Indies, 1760–1914","abstract":"The issue of how elites as a social group form, maintain their position, and influence the society they control is central to the debate on inequality. This paper studies one of the most extremely unequal societies ever recorded — the sugar-based economies in the West Indies — by focusing on the island of St. Croix in the Danish West Indies and examines the emergence and persistence of its economic elite. The study relies on a novel dataset that covers the entire population of the island over 154 years, allowing for a long-run analysis of elite persistence and the effects of significant economic, institutional, and social changes. Our study shows that elite persistence remained high in global comparison throughout the period of interest, despite several 'critical junctures'. These junctures only had a temporary effect. We contend that this result can be attributed to three mechanisms of persistence: inheritance, institutional co-optation and limited franchise. Finally, we find that although the Crucian elite maintained its relative standing, it came at the cost of severe impoverishment in absolute terms.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Stefania Galli","Dimitrios Theodoridis","Klas Rönnbäck"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101636","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c6bd246d0c937037","title":"Closing or reproducing the gender gap? Parental transmission, social norms and education choice","abstract":"Over the last decade, the economic literature has increasingly focused on the importance of gender identity and sticky gender norms in an attempt to explain the persistence of the gender gaps in education and labour market behaviour. Using detailed register data on the latest cohorts of Danish labour market entrants, this paper examines the intergenerational correlation in gender-stereotypical choice of education. Although to some extent picking up inherited and acquired skills, our results suggest that if parents exhibit gender-stereotypical labour market behaviour, children of the same sex are more likely to choose a gender-stereotypical education. The associations are strongest for sons. Exploiting the detailed nature of our data, we use birth order and sibling sex composition to shed light on the potential channels through which gender differences in educational preferences are transmitted across generations. Our findings support the hypothesis that human capital transfers and intra-family resource allocation are important mechanisms. We find no evidence suggesting that school and/or residential location are important drivers of the documented intergenerational correlations.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Maria Knoth Humlum","Anne Brink Nandrup","Nina Smith"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0692-1","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c6e5b5d84184a564","title":"Intangible capital and productivity divergence","abstract":"Understanding the causes of the slowdown in aggregate productivity growth is key to maintaining the competitiveness of advanced economies and ensuring long‐term economic prosperity. This paper provides evidence that investment in intangible capital, despite having a positive effect on productivity at the micro level, is a driver of the weak productivity performance at the aggregate level as it amplifies the divergence between a group of “frontier” firms and the rest of the economy. Using firm‐level data, we find that the effect of intangible capital on productivity is heterogeneous across firms within industries. Documenting the existence of divergence in productivity growth between top intangible users and the rest of firms at the industry level, we find that industries where this gap is larger are also those industries where the heterogeneity in the effect of intangible capital is highest and where average productivity growth was lower. Thus, the evidence supports the view that the use of intangible capital plays a role in explaining weak aggregate productivity growth, by intensifying differences between firms.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Marie Le Mouel","Alexander Schiersch"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12653","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c6e968b103ebcda0","title":"Conflicting objectives in kidney exchange","abstract":"There is no conflict between maximizing the number of transplants and giving priority to, e.g., highly HLA-sensitized recipients in kidney exchange programs that only permit pairwise exchanges. In some programs that feature cyclic exchanges or chains, however, giving priority to some recipients may reduce the number of transplants that can be carried out. This paper identifies the conditions under which there is a trade-off between prioritization and transplant maximization objectives. The results show that kidney exchange programs can permit some cyclic exchanges and chains without introducing such trade-offs. Whether or not a kidney exchange program has conflicting objectives and regardless of how recipients are prioritized, it can ensure a Pareto efficient outcome by selecting from a new class of matchings. These generalize several classes of matchings used in practice and studied in the literature.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Jörgen Kratz"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105803","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c6ee0153cacb580b","title":"Detecting Bidders Groups in Collusive Auctions","abstract":"We study entry and bidding in procurement auctions where contracts are awarded to the bid closest to a trimmed average bid. These auctions, common in public procurement, create incentives to coordinate bids to manipulate the bid distribution. We present statistical tests to detect coordinated entry and bidding choices. The tests perform well in a validation dataset where a court case makes coordination observable. We use the tests to detect coordination in a larger dataset where it is suspected, but not known. The results are used to interpret a major market shakeout following a switch to first price auctions.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Timothy G. Conley","Francesco Decarolis"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20130254","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c70cb0a7ed1883e1","title":"Immigrant religious practices and criminality: The case of Ramadan","abstract":"Ramadan has attracted negative publicity and criticism in Western countries with large Muslim immigrant populations. Are these attitudes justified? Does the behavior of Muslim immigrants negatively affect host populations during this period? This paper investigates one important dimension of immigrant behavior that is a source of concern: criminal activity. Using the universe of criminal offenses registered by the Swiss police authorities, the paper documents that during Ramadan, crimes committed by Muslim migrants decline by 11%. The mechanism behind this reduction most consistent with the empirical results, is one of changes in beliefs and values of immigrants. Other explanations, such as time spent on community events and declining physical ability play only a minor role.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Carlo Birkholz","David Gomtsyan"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.10.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c710fcee7cb9487d","title":"Risk and Return in Village Economies","abstract":"This paper provides a theory-based empirical framework for understanding the risk and return on productive capital assets and their allocation across activities in an economy characterized by idiosyncratic and aggregate risk and thin formal markets for real and financial assets. We apply our framework to households running business enterprises in Thai villages with extensive networks, taking advantage of panel data: income, assets, consumption, gifts, and loans. We decompose risk and estimate the risk premia faced by households, distinguishing aggregate risk from idiosyncratic, potentially diversifiable risk. This distinction matters for estimating measures of underlying productivity and has important policy implications.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Krislert Samphantharak","Robert M. Townsend"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160125","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c716b118fe1e147d","title":"Don’t draw the downs apart – How to best simulate asset price drawdowns","abstract":"This paper evaluates bootstrap simulation techniques for calculating the distribution of maximum drawdown (MDD), an important risk indicator in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Using stochastic dominance tests, we assess the full distributional properties of the MDD under different methods. Our findings reveal that the standard Efron (1979) bootstrap, which assumes independence and identically distributed random variables, systematically underestimates the true MDD. While the moving block bootstrap provides reasonable estimates, it is subject to non-stationarity bias, particularly when large drawdowns occur at the boundaries of a return series. Alternative procedures, such as block-block bootstrap, tapered bootstrap and robust resampling, do not lead to better results. Of all the methods studied, the stationary bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1994) produces the most accurate and robust results, particularly for longer block lengths.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Hubert Dichtl","Wolfgang Drobetz","Tizian Otto","Tatjana Puhan"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101738","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c72199498c8586b6","title":"The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-Benefits of Energy-Saving Technology","abstract":"We study the adoption of energy-efficient LED lighting in garment factories around Bangalore, India. Combining daily production line–level data with weather data, we estimate a negative, nonlinear productivity-temperature gradient. We find that LED lighting raises productivity on hot days. Using the firm's costs data, we estimate that the payback period for LED adoption is less than one-third the length after accounting for productivity co-benefits. The average factory in our data gains about $2,880 in power consumption savings and about $7,500 in productivity gains.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Achyuta Adhvaryu","Namrata Kala","Anant Nyshadham"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00886","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c725ec5293ac0f4c","title":"Choice of hospital: Which type of quality matters?","abstract":"Potential for competition declines rapidly with distance between hospitals. The implications of hospital quality competition depend on what type of quality affects choice of hospital. Previous studies of quality and choice of hospitals have used crude measures of quality such as mortality and readmission rates rather than measures of the health gain from specific treatments. We estimate multinomial logit models of hospital choice by patients undergoing hip replacement surgery in the English NHS to test whether hospital demand responds to quality as measured by detailed patient reports of health before and after hip replacement. We find that a one standard deviation increase in average health gain increases demand by up to 10%. The more traditional measures of hospital quality are less important in determining hospital choice.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Nils Gutacker","Luigi Siciliani","Giuseppe Moscelli","Hugh Gravelle"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.08.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c72f89438998a306","title":"Self-serving dishonesty: The role of confidence in driving dishonesty","abstract":"Ambiguity and uncertainty as an explanation for ethical blind spots is well-documented. We contribute to this line of research by showing that these blind spots arise even when there is naturally occurring uncertainty—that is, when individuals are simply uncertain of the truth they “fill-in” this uncertainty in a self-serving way. To examine self-serving dishonesty , we asked a sample of U.S. car owners to respond to an auto insurance underwriting questionnaire that affects their price of insurance (i.e., premium), and investigated how financial incentives affect the honesty of their responses. We find, consistent with the current literature, that people have a strong preference for truthfulness, but only when they are confident of the objective truth. However, when people are not completely certain of the objectively correct answer, significant dishonesty occurs in a self-serving manner. We also find that reports of confidence do not depend on incentives and thus self-serving dishonesty is not strategic.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Stephanie Heger","Robert Slonim","Franziska Tausch"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09380-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c7334f093e081d43","title":"Full substitutability","abstract":"Various forms of substitutability are essential for establishing the existence of equilibria and other useful properties in diverse settings such as matching, auctions, and exchange economies with indivisible goods. We extend earlier models' definitions of substitutability to settings in which each agent can be both a buyer in some transactions and a seller in others, and show that all these definitions are equivalent. We then introduce a new class of substitutable preferences that allows us to model intermediaries with production capacity. We also prove that substitutability is preserved under economically important transformations such as trade endowments, mergers, and limited liability.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["John William Hatfield","Scott Duke Kominers","Alexandru Nichifor","Michael Ostrovsky","Alexander Westkamp"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3240","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c734f206494e57e2","title":"Are women-owned enterprises better for employees?","abstract":"This study provides novel survey-based insights from an under-researched developing market perspective into whether women-owned enterprises offer better working environments despite being resource-constrained and subject to engendered restrictions. Using a hand-collected survey-based dataset from Kenya and Tanzania, we find that women-owned enterprises provide more formal training programs, pension coverage, health insurance, female and youth employment opportunities, and are more innovative. We attribute these findings to the fact that female participation leads to a more empathic and socially responsible approach to decision-making, resulting in better employee welfare outcomes. Our findings echo the need to spur equitable and sustained economic growth by eliminating engendered restrictions and providing more resources to female entrepreneurs in developing markets.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Michael Machokoto","Eugene Bempong Nyantakyi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111368","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c74ed6c49fb7789a","title":"Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro's Favelas","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of gunfights between drug gangs in Rio de Janeiro's favelas on student achievement. We explore variation in violence that occurs across time and space when gangs battle over territories. Within-school estimates indicate that students' scores are lower in math in years in which they are exposed to drug battles. The effect increases with conflict intensity, duration, and proximity to exam dates and decreases with the distance between the school and the conflict location. School supply is an important mechanism. Gunfights are associated with higher teacher absenteeism, principal turnover, and temporary school closings.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Joana Monteiro","Rudi Rocha"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00628","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c7536ba832b33261","title":"Poverty reduction saves forests sustainably: Lessons for deforestation policies","abstract":"Efforts to reduce deforestation are increasing worldwide through the implementation of climate change mitigation schemes and have recently been promoted as one of the goals of the United Nations’ 2015–2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, existing strategies are associated with high costs, low effectiveness, and potential adverse economic impact on tropical countries and local people. Moreover, because the underlying causes of deforestation are not clearly understood, the policy options that would be most effective in halting deforestation are not known. Therefore, in this study, I examine the main factors influencing forest area change by synthesizing the results of a multinational data analysis, a Malaysian socio-economic survey, and Indonesian household surveys on deforestation that were conducted between 1990 and 2014. I reveal that poverty has a strong impact on forest area change and that high agricultural rent accelerates deforestation. I then use logical equations based on my own findings and those of previous studies to represent the relationships between deforestation, poverty, agricultural rent, and forest scarcity. From these equations, I derive clear and reasonable explanations for the causes of deforestation and assess the effectiveness of various policies and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation strategies to halt deforestation. I suggest that poverty-reduction strategies can represent sound and effective methods for reducing tropical deforestation. These findings will facilitate development of sustainable strategies that will both reduce deforestation over long term and reconcile forest conservation with social welfare.","wordCount":235,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Motoe Miyamoto"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104746","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c760b14c2a4b6e05","title":"Hospital closure in urban and rural areas and patients’ welfare","abstract":"The hospital sector is frequently subject to reconfigurations, with some departments closing and new ones opening. Using a conditional logit model based on observed patient choices, we quantify the effects of a hospital department closure on the welfare of elective hip replacement patients in England. We simulate eight separate closures of the provider with lowest quality, as measured by one of four quality measures: revisions, emergency readmissions, 30-day mortality, change in the Oxford Hip Score, in urban and rural areas. The average reduction in welfare for patients who attended the closed hospital is equivalent to having to travel between two and ten additional kilometres for treatment, compared to their average travel distance, pre-closure, of 17.4 kilometres. The reduction in patient welfare is generally more pronounced when closing a hospital in a rural area (about 50% higher when quality is measured by the Oxford Hip Score and emergency readmissions).","wordCount":148,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Hugh Gravelle","Giuseppe Moscelli","Rita Santos","Luigi Siciliani"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104064","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c76b17104e50da67","title":"The Impact of Incentives to Recruit and Retain Teachers in “Hard‐to‐Staff” Subjects","abstract":"We investigate the effects of a statewide program designed to increase the supply of teachers in designated “hard‐to‐staff” areas, such as special education, math, and science. Employing a difference‐in‐difference estimator we find that the loan forgiveness component of the program was effective, reducing mean attrition rates for middle and high school math and science teachers by 10.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. We also find that the impact of loan forgiveness varied with the generosity of payments; when fully funded, the program reduced attrition of special education teachers by 12.3 percent, but did not have a statistically significant impact when funding was substantially reduced. A triple‐difference estimate indicates that a one‐time bonus program also had large effects, reducing the likelihood of teachers’ exit by as much as 32 percent in the short run. A back‐of‐the‐envelope cost‐benefit analysis suggests that both the loan forgiveness and the bonus program were cost effective.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Li Feng","Tim R. Sass"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22037","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c7725087c3217c33","title":"Reductions in out-of-pocket prices and forward-looking moral hazard in health care demand","abstract":"Little is known about how patients dynamically respond to a forthcoming reduction in health care out-of-pocket prices. Using a kinked Donut Regression Discontinuity design with kinks entering and exiting the donut, we evaluate a Swedish cost-sharing policy, where primary care out-of-pocket prices were eliminated at age 85. We find evidence of forward-looking moral hazard with older adults delaying primary care visits up to four months before the out-of-pocket elimination and shifting these visits until shortly after. These health care delays are driven by non-urgent care: non-physician visits, planned visits and follow up visits. We find no evidence of severe negative health effects in the short-term as a result of the delay. Contrary to our finding of forward-looking behavior with respect to out-of-pocket prices, we do not find evidence of typical moral hazard, as we do not find a persistent increase in primary health care use after the copayment elimination.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Naimi Johansson","Sonja C. de New","Johannes Kunz","Dennis Petrie","Mikael Svensson"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102710","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c785cf7314a26d2e","title":"The intergenerational transmission of human capital: the role of skills and health","abstract":"We provide new evidence on some of the mechanisms reflected in the intergenerational transmission of human capital. Applying both an adoption and a twin design to rich data from the Swedish military enlistment, we show that greater parental education increases sons’ cognitive and non-cognitive skills, as well as their health. The estimates are in many cases similar across research designs and suggest that a substantial part of the effect of parental education on their young adult children’s human capital works through improving their skills and health.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Petter Lundborg","Martin Nordin","Dan‐Olof Rooth"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0702-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c791ecca01612b3b","title":"Persistent effects of temporary incentives: Evidence from a nationwide health insurance experiment","abstract":"Temporary incentives are offered in anticipation of persistent effects that are seldom estimated. We use a nationwide randomized experiment in the Philippines to estimate effects of two incentives for health insurance three years after their withdrawal. We find that both temporary incentives had persistent effects on enrollment. A premium subsidy had a small but highly persistent effect. Application assistance offered to those initially unresponsive to the subsidy had a much larger but less persistent effect. The subsidy persuaded those with higher initial stated willingness to pay to enroll and keep enrolling. The offer of application assistance to initial non-compliers with the subsidy achieved a larger immediate effect by drawing in those who stated they valued insurance less and were less likely to re-enroll when the incentives were withdrawn.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Joseph J. Capuno","Owen O’Donnell","Carlos Antonio R. Tan","Kim van Wilgenburg"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102580","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c79232c821e5bf68","title":"Menu costs and asymmetric price adjustment","abstract":"We study optimal price setting by a monopolist in an infinite horizon model with stochastic costs, moderate inflation, and costly price adjustment. For realistic parameters, chosen to replicate observed frequencies of price changes, the model fits numerically several empirical regularities. In particular, price reductions are larger but less frequent than price increases, and prices respond considerably faster to cost increases than to cost decreases. The associated kink in the steady state short-run Phillips curve implies that the output loss associated with a small negative in‡ation surprise is about twice as large as the output gain associated with a small positive inflation surprise.","wordCount":102,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Tore Ellingsen","Richard Friberg","John Hassler"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103259","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c79268b99acbd304","title":"Air pollution and CO2 from daily mobility: Who emits and Why? Evidence from Paris","abstract":"Urban road transport is an important source of local pollution and carbon emissions. Designing effective and fair policies tackling these externalities requires understanding who contributes to emissions today. We estimate individual transport-induced pollution footprints combining a travel demand survey from the Paris area with NOx, PM2.5 and CO2 emission factors. We find that the top 20% emitters contribute 75%–85% of emissions on a representative weekday. They combine longer distances travelled, a high car modal share and, especially for local pollutants, a higher emission intensity of car trips. Living in the suburbs, being a man and being employed are the most important characteristics associated with top emissions. Among the employed, those commuting from suburbs to suburbs, working at a factory, with atypical working hours or with a manual, shopkeeping or top executive occupation are more likely to be top emitters. Finally, policies targeting local pollution may be more regressive than those targeting CO2 emissions, due to the different correlation between income and the local pollutant vs. CO2 emission intensity of car trips.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Marion Leroutier","Philippe Quirion"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105941","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c7a97af65cc04c1e","title":"It’s not about the money. EU funds, local opportunities, and Euroscepticism","abstract":"Growing Euroscepticism across the European Union (EU) leaves open questions as to what citizens expect to gain from EU Membership and what influences their dissent for EU integration. This paper looks at the EU Structural Funds, one of the largest and most visible expenditure items in the EU budget, to test their impact on electoral support for the EU. By leveraging the Referendum on Brexit held in the United Kingdom, a spatial RDD analysis offers causal evidence that EU money does not influence citizens' support for the EU. Conversely, the analysis shows that EU funds mitigate Euroscepticism only where they are coupled with tangible improvements in local labour market conditions, the ultimate objective of this form of EU intervention. Money cannot buy love for the EU, but its capacity to generate new local opportunities certainly can.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Riccardo Crescenzi","Marco Di Cataldo","Mara Giua"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103556","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c7b408acae8cfd22","title":"Early Marriage, Social Networks and the Transmission of Norms","abstract":"We investigate whether female early marriage is a conduit for the transmission of social norms, specifically norms relating to gender roles and rights within the household. We exploit differences in age at menarche between sisters as an exogenous source of variation in marriage age. This approach allows us to control for beliefs and attitudes that are transmitted from parents to children. Using a sample of unmarried adolescents, we first show that the timing of menarche has no direct effect on adolescent attitudes towards gender norms. Yet we find that early marriage increases agreement with statements supportive of traditional gender roles and gender bias in the allocation of resources. We also find some evidence that early marriage worsens the (self‐reported) quality of a woman's post‐marital social network.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Economica","authors":["M. Niaz Asadullah","Zaki Wahhaj"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12291","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c7ce9ac4f7bce5de","title":"Delegating performance evaluation","abstract":"We study optimal incentive contracts with multiple agents when performance is evaluated by a reviewer. The reviewer may be biased in favor of the agents, but the degree of bias is unknown to the principal. We show that a contest, which is a contract in which the principal fixes a set of prizes to be allocated to the agents, is optimal. By using a contest, the principal can commit to sustaining incentives despite the reviewer's potential leniency bias. The optimal effort profile can be uniquely implemented by an all‐pay auction with a cap. Our analysis has implications for various applications, such as the design of worker compensation or the allocation of research grants.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Igor Letina","Shuo Liu","Nick Netzer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3570","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c7d2efcd08861433","title":"Coupled Societies are More Robust Against Collapse: A Hypothetical Look at Easter Island","abstract":"Inspired by the challenges of environmental change and the resource limitations experienced by modern society, recent decades have seen an increased interest in understanding the collapse of past societies. Modelling efforts so far have focused on single, isolated societies, while multi-patch dynamical models representing networks of coupled socio-environmental systems have received limited attention. We propose a model of societal evolution that describes the dynamics of a population that harvests renewable resources and manufactures products that have positive effects on population growth. Collapse is driven by a critical transition that occurs when the rate of natural resource extraction passes beyond a certain point, for which we present numerical and analytical results. Applying the model to Easter Island gives a good fit to the archaeological record. Subsequently, we investigate what effects emerge from the movement of people, goods, and resources between two societies that share the characteristics of Easter Island. We analyse how diffusive coupling and wealth-driven coupling change the population levels and their distribution across the two societies compared to non-interacting societies. We find that the region of parameter space in which societies can stably survive in the long-term is significantly enlarged when coupling occurs in both social and environmental variables.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Sabin Roman","Seth Bullock","Markus Brede"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.11.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c7d45d8fcfe00a62","title":"Financial sector linkages and the dynamics of bank and sovereign credit spreads","abstract":"We show that CDS premiums of sovereigns are significantly affected by the foreign exposures of their domestic banks. Our analysis uses a simple risk-weighted exposure measure which aggregates detailed data on the composition and risk of banks' foreign exposures. A 1 basis point change in our risk weighted exposure measure corresponds to an average change of approximately 0.4 bp in sovereign CDS spreads. Extensive robustness checks confirm that the explanatory power of our measure is not due to common factors in CDS premiums. We also measure the size and riskiness of the sovereign's implicit and explicit guarantees extended to its domestic banking system.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["René Kallestrup","David Lando","Agatha Murgoci"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.01.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c7d7268ad92670ec","title":"Post-harvest losses in rural-urban value chains: Evidence from Ethiopia","abstract":"We study post-harvest losses (PHL) in important and rapidly growing rural–urban value chains in Ethiopia. We analyze self-reported PHL from different value chain agents – farmers, wholesale traders, processors, and retailers – based on unique large-scale data sets for two major commercial commodities, the storable staple teff and the perishable liquid milk. Aggregate PHL over all segments of the value chain (farmer to retailer) in the most prevalent marketing channel for teff and milk amount to between 2.2 and 3.3 percent and 2.1 and 4.3 percent of total produced quantities, respectively. Estimates of PHL from this research are found to be lower than is commonly assumed. We complement these findings with primary data from urban food retailers for more than 4,000 commodities. We find that the emerging modern retail sector in Ethiopia is characterized on average by half the level of PHL than is observed in the traditional retail sector. This is likely due to more stringent quality requirements in procurement systems, to sales of more packaged – and therefore better protected – commodities, and to better refrigeration, storage, and sales facilities. The further expected expansion of modern retail in these settings should therefore likely lead to a lowering of PHL in food value chains, at least at the retail level.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Bart Minten","Seneshaw Tamru","Thomas Reardon"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101860","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c7e804639d080b78","title":"Endogenous growth and entropy","abstract":"Future scenarios contribute to explain the growth crises after the 2000s. This paper offers novel insights regarding the role of complexity in both the transitional and the long-run dynamics of the economy. We devise an endogenous growth model that encompasses long-run economic change building on the concept of entropy as a time-varying state-dependent complexity effect. We show that the empirical evidence supports entropy as an ’operator’ of the complexity effect. It also suggests that part of the modern innovations have a stabilizing role in the complexity of the economies, as the ‘operator’ levels off despite the continuous increase in the measure of technological varieties. The model features endogenous growth, with null or small scale effects, or stagnation, in the long run. The model can replicate well the take-off after the industrial revolution and the productivity slowdown in the second half of the XXth century. Long-run scenarios based on in-sample calibration are discussed, and may help explain (part of) the growth crises affecting the current generation.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Tiago Neves Sequeira","Pedro Mazeda Gil","Óscar Afonso"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.07.019","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c7f0ee7599908652","title":"Squaring the cube: Towards an operational model of optimal universal health coverage","abstract":"Universal Health Coverage (UHC) has become a key goal of health policy in many developing countries. However, implementing UHC poses tough policy choices about: what treatments to provide (the depth of coverage); to what proportion of the population (the breadth of coverage); at what price to patients (the height of coverage). This paper uses a theoretical mathematical programming model to derive analytically the optimal balance between the range of services provided and the proportion of the population covered under UHC, using the general principles of cost-effectiveness analysis. In contrast to most CEA, the model allows for variations in both the costs of provision and the social benefits of treatments, depending on the deprivation level of the population. We illustrate empirically the optimal trade-off between the size of the benefits package and the proportion of the population securing access to each treatment for a hypothetical East African country, based on WHO data on the costs and benefits of treatments at different coverage levels. We begin with a scenario allowing coverage levels to vary, then apply differential equity weights to the benefits of coverage, and finally illustrate a scenario where interventions are either provided at 95% coverage or not at all (as is usually done in health benefits package design) for comparison. The results present the optimal trade-off between the social benefits of pursuing full population coverage, at the expense of expanding the benefits package for 'easier to reach' populations.","wordCount":238,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Jessica Ochalek","Gerald Manthalu","Peter Smith"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102282","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c81169c717c88688","title":"Rituals of reason: Experimental evidence on the social acceptability of lotteries in allocation problems","abstract":"We study collective preferences towards the use of random procedures in allocation mechanisms. We report the results of two experiments in which subjects choose a procedure to allocate a reward to half of them. The first possibility is an explicitly random device: the outcome of a lottery. The second is an equally unpredictable procedure with an identical success rate, but without explicit randomization. We identify an aversion to lotteries, particularly when compared to procedures reminiscent of meritocratic ones. In line with the literature, we also find evidence of a preference for control in most procedures.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Elias Bouacida","Renaud Foucart"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.04.001","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c8164d7263b1073c","title":"Energy poverty in Sri Lanka","abstract":"Understanding energy poverty is fundamental to any efforts to alleviate it. This paper, using the latest (2016) Sri Lankan Household Income and Expenditure survey data, examines the incidence, intensity, inequality, and determinants of energy poverty in Sri Lanka, by constructing the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI). The MEPI is calculated using a set of seven key indicators representing multiple dimensions of energy and assigning weights by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Sri Lankan households, on average, are experiencing a moderate level of energy poverty (with MEPI of 0.431) where the lack of access to modern cooking fuel is the largest contributor to energy poverty. Results of this study revealed notable differences in energy poverty by gender, age, ethnicity, and income group of the head of the household and by sub-national location of the household. Significant differences in inequality in energy poverty were also observed by sub-national location and income. While energy-poor households are not necessarily always income-poor, income and other socio-demographic and geographical factors are strongly associated with energy poverty in Sri Lanka. The findings of this study raise alarms for the possible adverse implications on health and education attainment of the energy-poor. Overall, the results provide valuable policy insights into one of the most neglected dimensions of the post-war development policy agenda in Sri Lanka, in particular, and other developing countries, in general.","wordCount":225,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Maneka Jayasinghe","Saroja Selvanathan"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105450","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c817a1260e67e44e","title":"The effects of post-Dobbs abortion bans on fertility","abstract":"The U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization sparked the most profound transformation of the landscape of abortion access in 50 years. We provide the first estimates of the effects of near-total abortion bans on fertility using a pre-registered synthetic difference-in-differences design applied to newly released provisional natality data for the first half of 2023. The results indicate that states with abortion bans experienced an average increase in births of 2.3 percent relative to if no bans had been enforced.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Daniel Dench","Mayra Pineda-Torres","Caitlin Knowles Myers"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105124","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c828ab55be4674d1","title":"Trust the Police? Self-Selection of Motivated Agents into the German Police Force","abstract":"We conduct experimental games with police applicants in Germany to investigate whether intrinsically motivated agents self-select into this type of public service. Our focus is on trustworthiness and the willingness to enforce norms of cooperation as key dimensions of intrinsic motivation in the police context. We find that police applicants are more trustworthy than non-applicants, i.e., they return higher shares as second-movers in a trust game. Furthermore, they invest more in rewards and punishment when they can enforce cooperation as a third party. Our results provide clear evidence for self-selection of motivated agents into the German police force, documenting an important mechanism that influences the match between jobs and agents in public service.","wordCount":113,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Guido Friebel","Michael Kosfeld","Gerd Thielmann"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20170389","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c8432d9ef40bf837","title":"Public investment, debt, and welfare: A quantitative analysis","abstract":"In this paper, we examine the relationship between infrastructure investment and economic welfare in the context of a heterogeneous agent, incomplete-markets economy. Using a quantitative model to match the key aggregate and distributional features of the U.S. economy over the period 1990–2015, we show that the welfare-maximizing share of public investment in GDP depends critically on whether one internalizes the transition path between stationary equilibria or not. When welfare changes are evaluated by only comparing long-run stationary equilibria, the model implies that the government should increase infrastructure investment above its average share of 4 percent of GDP in the data. However, once the transition path and short-run dynamics are internalized, welfare-maximization generates an intertemporal trade-off in the path of infrastructure spending: a short-run increase significantly above its observed share in the data, but a long-run decline below this share to satisfy the government’s budget constraint.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Santanu Chatterjee","John Gibson","Felix Rioja"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.01.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c850e30d84381973","title":"Oil Prices and Personal Consumption Expenditures: Does the Source of the Shock Matter?","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of structural oil shocks on personal consumption expenditures (PCE). First, we estimate a nonlinear simultaneous equation model, compute impulse responses by Monte Carlo integration, and conduct a test of the symmetry of the impulse response functions. We find that aggregate PCE responds asymmetrically to positive and negative oil‐specific demand shocks. Second, we find that aggregate PCE responds negatively to positive oil demand shocks, while adverse oil supply shocks are of limited effect. Third, we find important heterogeneity in the magnitude, sign and timing of the disaggregate PCE responses to structural shocks in the crude oil market. Our results clearly indicate that the response of PCE to an unexpected oil price increase depends on the source of the oil price shock. Our findings are robust to different nonlinear transformations for the real price of oil.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Zeina N. Alsalman","Mohamad B. Karaki"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12276","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c85a39fa4bfc02b1","title":"Willingness to compete, gender and career choices along the whole ability distribution","abstract":"We expand the scope of the literature on willingness to compete by asking how it varies with academic ability and whether and how it predicts career choices at different ability levels. The literature so far has mainly focused on career choices made by students at the top of the ability distribution, particularly in academic institutions. We experimentally elicit the willingness to compete of 1500 Swiss lower-secondary school students at all ability levels and link it to the study choice that students make upon finishing compulsory school. Our analysis of the relationship between willingness to compete and the study choice considers the full set of study options, including the options in vocational education. We find that willingness to compete predicts which study option high-ability students choose, not only among academic specializations but also among vocational careers, and, importantly, it also predicts whether low-ability boys pursue upper-secondary education upon finishing compulsory schooling. Our second main contribution is to systematically explore how willingness to compete varies with academic ability. We find that high-ability boys, but not girls, are substantially more willing to compete compared to all other children. As a consequence, the gender gap in willingness to compete is significantly lower among low-ability students than among high-ability students. Overall, our study highlights that insights from the literature on willingness to compete are relevant for a broader set of policy questions, populations and choices.","wordCount":230,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Thomas Buser","Noemi Peter","Stefan C. Wolter"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-022-09765-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8604df34cee8297","title":"Does air pollution impair investment efficiency?","abstract":"Using a sample of 2174 Chinese listed firms for the period 2014–2019, we examine whether air pollution impairs investment efficiency of firms. We find robust evidence that air pollution is negatively associated with firms’ investment efficiency, and that this association is more pronounced for small firms, non-state-owned firms, financially constrained firms, and firms confronted with high business risk or intense industrial product market competition.","wordCount":64,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Guanming He","Tiantian Lin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110490","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c86d1b79bb3f00f5","title":"Bridging the Gap Between National and Ecosystem Accounting Application in Andalusian Forests, Spain","abstract":"National accounting either ignores or fails to give due values to the ecosystem services, products, incomes and environmental assets of a country. To overcome these shortcomings, we apply spatially-explicit extended accounts that incorporate a novel environmental income indicator, which we test in the forests of Andalusia (Spain). Extended accounts incorporate nine farmer activities (timber, cork, firewood, nuts, livestock grazing, conservation forestry, hunting, residential services and private amenity) and seven government activities (fire services, free access recreation, free access mushroom, carbon, landscape conservation, threatened biodiversity and water yield). To make sure the valuation remains consistent with standard accounts, we simulate exchange values for non-market final forest product consumption in order to measure individual ecosystem services and environmental income indicators. Manufactured capital and environmental assets are also integrated. When comparing extended to standard accounts, our results are 3.6 times higher for gross value added. These differences are explained primarily by the omission in the standard accounts of carbon activities and undervaluation of private amenity, free access recreation, landscape and threatened biodiversity ecosystem services. Extended accounts measure a value of Andalusian forest ecosystem services 5.4 times higher than that measured using the valuation criteria of standard accounts.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Pablo Campos","Alejandro Caparrós","José L. Oviedo","Paola Ovando","Begoña Á. Farizo","Luis Dı́az-Balteiro","Juan Carranza","Santiago Beguería","Mario Dı́az","A. Casimiro Herruzo","Fernando Martínez‐Peña","Mario Soliño","Alejandro Álvarez","María Martínez‐Jauregui","María Pasalodos-Tato","Pablo de Frutos Madrazo","Jorge Aldea","Eloy Almazán","Elena D. Concepción","Bruno Mesa","Carlos Romero","Roberto Serrano‐Notivoli","Cristina Fernández","Jerónimo Torres‐Porras","Gregorio Montero"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.11.017","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c86e8a94a79edf06","title":"Social integration of Syrian refugees and their intention to stay in Germany","abstract":"In this study, we investigate the determinants of social integration of Syrian refugees and the impact of social integration on refugees’ decision to stay in Germany, using the 2016 IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey. Our econometric strategy is based on the estimation of a simultaneous equation model for social integration, economic integration, and the decision to stay, handling endogeneity issues through an instrumental variables strategy. Our first contribution is to show that economic integration has an impact on social integration for low- and medium-educated refugees only. Furthermore, language proficiency, having a child in Germany, refugee accommodation, and the number of acquaintances from other countries have a positive impact on social integration, while age has the opposite effect. Our second main result is that social integration affects the intention to stay in Germany, whereas economic integration does not. Moreover, education, English proficiency, and the number of daughters in Germany have a negative impact on the intention to stay.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Cyrine Hannafi","Mohamed Ali Marouani"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00913-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8703778d3d229ba","title":"Do businessmen make good governors?","abstract":"This paper evaluates the economic performance of U.S. state governors with a business background (chief executive officer [CEO] governors). Applying a matching method, I find, first, that businesspeople tend to take office in times of economic and fiscal strain. Second, the tenures of CEO governors are associated with a 0.5 percentage points (pp.) higher annual income growth rate, a 0.4 pp. higher growth rate of the private capital stock, and a 0.6 pp. lower unemployment rate than are the tenures of non‐CEO governors. State‐level income inequality is not affected by CEO governors holding office, indicating that low‐income households benefit from the economic upswing.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Florian Neumeier"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12576","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c872038e073e7cbf","title":"Surface Coal Mining and Human Health: Evidence from West Virginia","abstract":"This article presents the first panel‐data evidence of a human health externality from the air pollution generated by surface coal mining. In West Virginia, a standard deviation increase in a county's exposure to surface coal mining is associated with 9.85 more asthma hospitalizations per 100,000 residents in a given quarter. Interpreted causally, this suggests over $11 million in hospitalization costs over the 6‐year study period. The study builds on earlier cross‐sectional research by controlling for unobserved county‐level heterogeneity, and by defining more accurate measures of exposure. Both methods are shown to reduce the bias associated with earlier estimates of coal mining's effect on health. Young and elderly women demonstrate the largest sensitivities to surface mining. Falsification tests reveal that neither hernias nor bone fractures demonstrate any relationship with surface mining activity.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Luke G. Fitzpatrick"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12260","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c872771bd3eb503b","title":"How social imbalance and governance quality shape policy directives for energy transition in the OECD countries?","abstract":"In line with the COP26 Summit objectives, this paper develops a policy framework to achieve energy transition by considering the social imbalances and regulatory effectiveness. A new energy transition index is proposed. It is an output-side indicator based on the energy ladder hypothesis. This index enables to apprehend the energy transition scenario in any country by capturing (a) the transition to a cleaner energy source, and (b) the transition to more energy efficient sources. Using the two-step System GMM approach and data for 37 OECD countries over the 2000–2019 period, the dynamic and extreme marginal impacts of energy transition drivers with respect to estimates of the model parameters are analyzed. The results show that the social imbalance dampens the positive impacts of energy transition drivers, whereas governance quality helps in augmenting those impacts. The outcomes, drawn from a scenario-based policy design approach, are particularly helpful in advancing potential policy discourse. They have important practical implications for the development of the SDG-oriented policy framework, with special focus on the attainment of the SDG 7 and 13.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Avik Sinha","Stelios Bekiros","N. Hussain","Duc Khuong Nguyen","Sana Akbar Khan"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106642","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8938df68b31d4d4","title":"Start-up acquisitions, venture capital and innovation: A comparative study of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft","abstract":"We evaluate the impact of big-tech acquisitions on the incentives for venture capital (VC) investment and innovation. Using data on several hundred acquisitions by Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft (GAFAM), we study the evolution of VC investment and patenting in affected technology fields relative to control groups. The results show a clear negative impact on VC investment, while the effect on innovation depends on the acquirer and period. Over time, the treatment effects on both outcomes improve, as GAFAM firms' product and tech-portfolios become more similar. Yet, around 14% of acquisitions impact both metrics negatively.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Klaus Gugler","Florian Szücs","Ulrich Wohak"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103148","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8a5ee472635ebbf","title":"Health benefits of reducing aircraft pollution: evidence from changes in flight paths","abstract":"This paper investigates externalities generated by air transportation pollution on health. As a source of exogenous variation, we use an unannounced 5-month trial that reallocated early morning aircraft landings at London Heathrow Airport. Our measure of health is prescribed medications spending on conditions known to be aggravated by pollution, especially sleep disturbances. We observe a significant and substantial decrease in prescribed drugs for respiratory and central nervous system disorders in the areas subjected to reduced air travel between 4:30 am and 6.00 am compared with the control regions. Our findings suggest a causal influence of aviation on health conditions.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Silvia Beghelli","Augustin de Coulon","Mary O’Mahony"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00964-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8b0c29a70db35d5","title":"Estimating the effect of air pollution on road safety using atmospheric temperature inversions","abstract":"Does air quality influence road safety? We estimate the effect of increased air pollution on the number of road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2014. To address concerns of spurious correlation we exploit atmospheric temperature inversions as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in daily air pollution levels. We find an increase of 0.3–0.6% in the number of vehicles involved in accidents per day for each additional 1 μg/m3 of PM2.5. The finding suggests that less safe roads may present a large and previously overlooked cost of air pollution. The results are robust to a number of specifications and across various sub-samples.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Lutz Sager"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102250","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8b107f4b2a90b9d","title":"A Theory of Socio-economic Disparities in Health over the Life Cycle","abstract":"Motivated by the observation that medical care explains only a relatively small part of the SES-health gradient, we present a life-cycle model that incorporates several additional behaviours that potentially explain (jointly) a large part of observed disparities. As a result, the model provides not only a conceptual framework for the SES-health gradient but more generally an improved framework for the production of health. We derive novel predictions from the theory by performing comparative dynamic analyses. More generally, our comparative dynamic method can be applied to models of similar form, e.g., human capital, health deficits, firm investment, to name a few.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["T. J. Galama","Hans van Kippersluis"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12577","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8d92660973d3270","title":"Ghost fishing and the voluntary adoption of biodegradable gear","abstract":"The use of biodegradable fishing gear is increasingly seen as a way to mitigate the negative impacts associated with abandoned, lost, or otherwise discarded fishing gear (ALDFG), often referred to as “ghost gear”. However, a major concern with such an environmentally friendly technique is its potential to reduce catch efficiency due to its degradable characteristics, which may diminish competitiveness. To contribute to the limited empirical evidence, we conducted a survey experiment to investigate how the effectiveness of biodegradable gear, compared to conventional fishing gear, influences the adoption by Norwegian fishers. Our findings reveal that fishers are willing to adopt biodegradable fishing gear without conditions if its catch efficiency is comparable to conventional gear. We consider alternative adoption conditions and find that, as the relative efficiency of biodegradable gear decreases, the individual adoption decision becomes more conditional on other fishers doing so. These findings suggest that strategic concerns make conditional adoption important to widespread use of biodegradable gear. Specifically, adoption depends on improving the relative catch efficiency of biodegradable gear or implementing policies that lead to widespread adoption. Results indicates that marine environment protection concerns drive adoption, while economic concerns drive opposition.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Huu-Luat Do","Todd L. Cherry"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101534","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c8ea6be3e3e37b26","title":"Does lower electric vehicle production cost spur traditional automaker electrification? Spillovers of cost-reduction investments","abstract":"Cost-reduction investments by leading electric vehicle (EV) automakers like Tesla are essential in lowering EV prices and accelerating market adoption. However, the impact of these investments on the electrification strategies of traditional gasoline vehicle (GV) automakers remains unclear, particularly when spillovers to GV automakers producing perfectly substitutable EVs are possible. This study examines the interaction between these factors within a Cournot competition model involving one EV automaker and one GV automaker, revealing three key insights. First, the EV automaker’s cost-reduction investments do not necessarily encourage the GV automaker to pursue electrification, even with significant spillovers; the outcome also depends on product substitutability between GVs and EVs. Second, the EV automaker tends to increase investments under low spillovers and decrease them under high spillovers in response to GV automaker electrification. Nevertheless, these investments cannot fully offset the profit erosion caused by GV automaker electrification. Third, these findings remain qualitatively robust across several extended scenarios, including asymmetric consumer reservation prices, imperfect EV substitution, a shift from quantity to price competition, and a Stackelberg game framework. The model is also extended to evaluate the effects of three government interventions—purchase subsidies, carbon taxes, and emission standards—alongside the impact of oligopolistic competition.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Zhenyang Pi","Ke Wang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101477","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c8f4809d027c70b2","title":"On the Time‐Varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the US Economy","abstract":"We study the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the US Economy by using a VAR with time‐varying coefficients. The coefficients are allowed to evolve gradually over time which allows us to discover structural changes without imposing them a priori . We find three different regimes, which match the three major periods of the US economy, namely the Great Inflation, the Great Moderation and the Great Recession. The initial impact on real GDP ranges between −0.2% for the Great Inflation and Great Recession and −0.15% for the Great Moderation. In addition, the adverse effects of EPU are more persistent during the Great Recession providing an explanation for the slow recovery. This regime dependence is unique for EPU as the macroeconomic consequences of Financial Uncertainty turn out to be rather time invariant.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Jan Prüser","Alexander Schlösser"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12380","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c9096ee19de35d48","title":"The effect of electricity time-of-use plans: Evidence from the industrial sector in China","abstract":"Time-of-use (TOU) pricing plans are crucial energy market mechanisms implemented worldwide. Using a staggered difference-in-differences research design and hourly electricity data from industrial customers, this study goes beyond simply assessing the effectiveness of TOU pricing. It investigates under which circumstances TOU pricing may effectively contribute to peak shaving and valley filling. Our results indicate that high-peak-price TOU pricing may induce peak-shaving effects for both large- and small-scale industrial customers but does not lead to valley filling. Conversely, low-peak-price TOU pricing increases electricity consumption among large-scale industrial customers, regardless of whether it is a peak or valley period. In terms of expenditure, the shift from a flat rate to TOU pricing is associated with a 1.7 % reduction in monthly electricity costs for large-scale industrial customers. Furthermore, high-peak-price TOU pricing significantly improves demand stability, leading to a 4.7 % reduction in the peak-to-valley load ratio. Using a staggered difference-in-difference research design and hourly electricity data from industrial customers, this study investigates under which circumstances TOU pricing may effectively contribute to peak shaving and valley filling. Applying a two-way fixed effects model, we find that the overall impact of TOU pricing on daily electricity consumption varies among industrial customers of different scales and with different peak-price TOU pricing plans. This divergence elucidates the mixed evaluation of TOU's effects on electricity consumption in the literature. Further analysis of TOU's effects on electricity consumption reveals that TOU only exhibits peak-shaving effects when peak prices are sufficiently high for large industrial customers. Conversely, low-peak-price TOU pricing leads to an increase in the electricity consumption of large-scale industrial customers in peak, flat, and valley periods. For small customers, both high- and low-peak-price TOU pricing significantly reduces peak electricity usage, and does not have a valley-filling effect. Introducing TOU brings electricity cost reductions for both customer categories. The shift from a flat rate to TOU leads to a reduction of monthly electricity costs by 1.7 % for large-scale industrial customers. For small-scale industrial customers, due to significant total electricity consumption decrease, expenditure reduces by 55.5 % under the TOU structure. We utilize the peak-to-valley load ratio to measure power grid demand stability, uncovering a substantial impact of TOU pricing. The results show that TOU leads to a 4.6 % reduction in the peak-to-valley load ratio. Under a high-peak-price TOU, the peak-to-valley ratio gap between the treatment group and the control group is even larger, reaching up to 8.1 %, which indicates the significant benefits of the TOU policy in stabilizing electricity demand.","wordCount":415,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Lingfang Li","Jiehong Qiu","Gang Fang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102390","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c90e6fc9c0af536f","title":"The contribution of jump signs and activity to forecasting stock price volatility","abstract":"We propose a novel approach to decompose realized jump measures by type of activity (finite/infinite) and sign, and also provide noise-robust versions of the ABD jump test (Andersen et al., 2007b) and realized semivariance measures. We find that infinite (finite) jumps improve the forecasts at shorter (longer) horizons; but the contribution of signed jumps is limited. As expected, noise-robust measures deliver substantial forecast improvements at higher sampling frequencies, although standard volatility measures at the 300-s frequency generate the smallest MSPEs. Since no single model dominates across sampling frequency and forecasting horizon, we show that model averaged volatility forecasts – using time-varying weights and models from the model confidence set – generally outperform forecasts from both the benchmark and single best extended HAR model. Finally, forecasts using volatility and jump measures based on transaction sampling are inferior to the forecasts from clock-based sampling.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Ruijun Bu","Rodrigo Hizmeri","Marwan Izzeldin","Anthony Murphy","Mike Tsionas"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c91ae2440a4c3c9c","title":"Complexity and colocation of the college-educated: Sort of complements","abstract":"Kremer (1993) proposed that complementarity between highly skilled workers who are employed in firms with complex production processes would motivate both the firms and the workers they employ to colocate geographically, but thus far empirical work has focused on complementarity at the firm and industry level. This paper uses Census and American Community Survey data between 1960 and 2020 on 561 cities to present new evidence on high-skill complementarity among college-educated workers at and below the city level. The findings include: (1) More complex occupations and industries employ higher college shares; (2) Cities with higher overall college shares employ higher college shares within an industry or occupation; (3) More complex industries and occupations tend to exhibit larger gradients of college share with respect to city college share; (4) Cities with higher college shares tend to house more complex mixes of industries and occupations; (5) Below the city level, (a) college share in an industry tends to be higher, the higher the college share in industries up- and downstream; (b) college share in an occupation tends to be higher, the higher the college share in the remainder of the industry; and (6) More complex industries and occupations tend to exhibit larger (sub-city) gradients. Finally, analysis of college wages supports the hypothesis that productivity-related factors are at work.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Curtis J. Simon"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104105","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c9203cd83dd6e5fb","title":"The power of outside options in the presence of obstinate types","abstract":"We experimentally investigate the role of two-sided reputation-building in dynamic bargaining. In the absence of outside options, rational bargainers have an incentive to imitate obstinate types that are committed to an aggressive demand, inducing delay. Outside options remove this incentive and ensure immediate agreement whenever two rational bargainers match. Our data support the hypothesis that outside options cut down on imitation and ensure timely agreements, but only if subjects share a belief about what constitutes obstinacy. Further, we find that outside options are exercised excessively and that efficiency is no better than it is in their absence. We ascribe this result to the presence of fairness preferences in the subject pool.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Tom‐Reiel Heggedal","Leif Helland","Magnus Våge Knutsen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.10.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c95e8f23bc5b8cfd","title":"Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Disaster Risk: A Case Study of Flood and Drought Impact in a Rural Sri Lankan Community","abstract":"While climate change is a global phenomenon, its negative impacts are more severely felt in poor countries because of their high dependence on natural resources and limited coping capacity to climate variability and extremes. However, investigation of the relationship between poverty, climate variability and water-related disasters is complex. This article investigates the relationship between disaster risk, poverty, and the associated vulnerability of households and communities. The case study on which the article is based was carried out in Sri Lanka, a developing country prone to disasters. Data collected from household surveys conducted in North Central province, Sri Lanka, was examined with the use of cross tabulation and regression analysis techniques. Our study is novel because it considers floods and droughts together and compares their economic impact on socioeconomic groups at a local level.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["M.M.G.T. De Silva","Akiyuki Kawasaki"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.05.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c9720af820a2de7f","title":"Temporary Migration and Endogenous Risk Sharing in Village India","abstract":"When people can self-insure via migration, they may have less need for informal risk sharing. At the same time, informal insurance may reduce the need to migrate. To understand the joint determination of migration and risk sharing, I study a dynamic model of risk sharing with limited commitment frictions and endogenous temporary migration. First, I characterize the model. Second, I structurally estimate the model using the new ICRISAT panel from rural India. Third, I introduce a rural employment scheme. The policy reduces migration and decreases risk sharing, lowering the welfare gain of the policy.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Melanie Morten"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700763","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c97461a175ca0e31","title":"Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume","abstract":"We propose the Volume Coefficient of Variation (VCV), the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean of trading volume, as a new and simple measure of information asymmetry in security markets. We use a microstructure model to demonstrate that VCV is strictly increasing in the proportion of informed trade. Empirically, we obtain VCV from daily observations of trading volume and provide extensive evidence supporting the hypothesis that VCV indicates information asymmetry, by studying return reversals, institutional ownership, and extant firm-level measures of asymmetric information in the cross-section of US stocks. Moreover, VCV increases following exogenous reductions in analyst coverage induced by brokerage closures, and steeply decreases around earnings announcements and other information disclosures.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Matthijs Lof","Jos van Bommel"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102464","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c97e845b874d2238","title":"Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates","abstract":"We study regression discontinuity designs when covariates are included in the estimation. We examine local polynomial estimators that include discrete or continuous covariates in an additive separable way, but without imposing any parametric restrictions on the underlying population regression functions. We recommend a covariate-adjustment approach that retains consistency under intuitive conditions and characterize the potential for estimation and inference improvements. We also present new covariate-adjusted mean-squared error expansions and robust bias-corrected inference procedures, with heteroskedasticity-consistent and cluster-robust standard errors. We provide an empirical illustration and an extensive simulation study. All methods are implemented in R and Stata software packages.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sebastián Calónico","Matias D. Cattaneo","Max H. Farrell","Rocío Titiunik"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00760","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c98f581d0e66fda4","title":"Signals matter? Large retirement responses to limited financial incentives","abstract":"Do early retirement ages (ERA) provide a signal about the appropriate age to retire? We examine the impact of increasing the ERA for women in a context (the UK) where the financial incentive to retire at the ERA is very limited. Despite limited financial incentives, we find that women's employment rates at the old ERA increased by 6.3 percentage points. Our results suggest that wealth effects, credit constraints and changes to marginal financial incentives to work do not drive this effect but instead that most of the excess retirements observed at the ERA are driven by a signal to retire.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Jonathan Cribb","Carl Emmerson","Gemma Tetlow"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2016.09.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c991137bd77794d9","title":"Buy low, sell high? Do private equity fund managers have market timing abilities?","abstract":"When investors commit capital to a private equity fund, the money is not immediately invested but is called by the fund manager throughout an investment period of up to five years. The private equity business model allows fund managers to invest and divest the committed capital during the fund's lifetime at their own discretion, which gives them the flexibility to time the markets. Based on 7,591 private equity deals, which are benchmarked against 14,390 M&A transaction multiples, we find evidence that on average private equity funds are able to create value by timing the financial markets. Market timing ability is not captured by performance measures such as the PME, yet it is a potential source of returns for investors.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Tim Jenkinson","Stefan Morkoetter","Tobias Schori","Thomas Wetzer"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106424","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c99236d39e225d18","title":"(In-kind) Wages and labour relations in the Middle Ages: It’s not (all) about the money","abstract":"This paper explores the prevalence of in-kind wages in medieval labour markets and the underlying reasons for their use. Using a new dataset of agricultural labourers in medieval England, we demonstrate that, until the late fourteenth century, wages were recorded anonymously and most remuneration was done through in-kind payment. From the 1370s, however, labour remuneration shifted increasingly to cash and workers began to be named individually in the accounts which recorded their wages. We argue that these changes reveal a fundamental shift in labour relations in late medieval England, providing new empirical insights into the ‘golden age of labour’ that followed the Black Death.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jordan Claridge","Vincent Delabastita","Spike Gibbs"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101626","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c99d8d2585bfde14","title":"The impact of board gender composition on dividend payouts","abstract":"This paper investigates whether female independent directors are more likely to impose high dividend payouts. We find evidence that firms with a larger fraction of female directors on their board have greater dividend payouts. This finding is robust to alternative econometric specifications, and alternative measures of dividend payouts and female board representation. The positive effect of board gender composition on dividends remains when we employ propensity score matching, the instrumental variable approach, and difference-in-differences approach to address potential endogeneity concerns. Furthermore, we find that board gender composition significantly increases the dividend payout only for firms with weak governance, suggesting that female directors use dividend payouts as a governance device.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Jie Chen","Woon Sau Leung","Marc Goergen"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.01.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c9a68870c1bc4d77","title":"The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution","abstract":"Cognitive performance during high-stakes exams can be affected by random disturbances that, even if transitory, may have permanent consequences. We evaluate this hypothesis among Israeli students who took a series of matriculation exams between 2000 and 2002. Exploiting variation across the same student taking multiple exams, we find that transitory PM 2.5 exposure is associated with a significant decline in student performance. We then examine these students in 2010 and find that PM 2.5 exposure during exams is negatively associated with postsecondary educational attainment and earnings. The results highlight how reliance on noisy signals of student quality can lead to allocative inefficiency.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Avraham Ebenstein","Victor Lavy","Sefi Roth"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150213","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c9a74a21f1a4d5eb","title":"Tax incidence in oligopolistic markets","abstract":"This paper discusses how incidences of unit taxes and ad valorem taxes are related to various market characteristics under imperfect competition. Incidence is higher the more competitive markets are. More specifically, it is higher the wider the firms’ product ranges, the lower the degree of market concentration and the lower the degree of product differentiation, and higher in Bertrand markets compared to Cournot markets. Furthermore, the incidence is higher for unit taxes than for ad valorem taxes. The relative difference between unit and ad valorem tax incidence is larger the lower marginal costs and taxes are.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Jonas Häckner","Mathias Herzing"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110352","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c9a98360af035fd1","title":"Investor behavior in times of conflict: A natural experiment on the interplay of geopolitical risk and defense stocks","abstract":"We examine the connectedness of aerospace and defense companies and their relation to measures of geopolitical risk. With hierarchical clustering, we find stable and localized company clusters. Increasing geopolitical risk leaves these clusters intact but strengthens inter-cluster connectedness. Focusing on intraday data, we find that for most companies, instantaneous news arrival in form of jumps impacts realized volatility significantly. Further, we show that different measures of geopolitical uncertainty (GPR and COVOL) have differing impact on short-term predictions of intraday volatility, underlying the importance to distinguish between different sources of uncertainty. We provide evidence that investors react instantaneously to increases in geopolitical risk with some persistence of these shocks. The COVOL index holds significant informational content for short- and medium-term predictions of realized volatility of global aerospace and defense companies.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Tony Klein"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.04.020","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-c9abfba59162391c","title":"Determinants of financial worry and rumination","abstract":"Significant parts of populations in developed countries frequently worry and ruminate about their finances. Financial worry and rumination can have serious psychological consequences, resulting in lower psychological well-being, mental-health problems, and impaired cognitive functioning. The literature lacks studies investigating the socio-demographic antecedents of and the financial processes underlying financial worry and rumination. The purpose of our study was to investigate the socio-demographic and financial antecedents of financial worry and rumination (FWR) and the financial factors mediating these relationships. We collected online self-administered survey data from a sample of the Dutch population (N = 1040). Using confirmatory factor analysis, we found that a bifactor model, including a strong and reliable general factor, provided the best explanation of the structure underlying FWR. We developed a parallel mediation model and investigated its structural relationships using structural equation modeling. After controlling for multiple hypotheses testing, our results show that income, past positive changes in one’s finances, and age are negatively related to FWR. We found no support for education level and only weak support for expected changes in one’s finances as antecedents. Furthermore, the explained variance in FWR substantially improved after adding the mediators of making ends meet, financial buffer, and perceived debts. Among these mediators, making ends meet played a key role explaining respectively half and two-thirds of the total effects of income and past changes in one’s finances on FWR. These results were robust under several specifications and were generalizable to the Dutch population. We discuss the implications of our results for future research and government policy.","wordCount":255,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Ernst-Jan de Bruijn","Gerrit Antonides"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.102233","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c9b7a81bef77e2b5","title":"Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade","abstract":"Individuals that consume different baskets of goods are differentially affected by relative price changes caused by international trade. We develop a methodology to measure the unequal gains from trade across consumers within countries. The approach requires data on aggregate expenditures and parameters estimated from a nonhomothetic gravity equation. We find that trade typically favors the poor, who concentrate spending in more traded sectors.","wordCount":63,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Pablo Fajgelbaum","Amit Khandelwal"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c9ba23f59ebc5a26","title":"(Dis)honesty in the face of uncertain gains or losses","abstract":"We examine dishonest behavior in the face of potential uncertain gains and losses in three pre-studies (N = 150, N = 225, N = 188) and a main study (N = 240). Ample research has shown that people cheat when presented with the opportunity. We use a die-under-cup paradigm, in which participants could dishonestly report a private die roll and thereby increase the odds to obtain a desired outcome. Results showed that the framing of the uncertain situation mattered: Participants who lied to decrease the likelihood to experience a loss used major lies (i.e., reporting a ‘6’), while those who lied to increase the chance to achieve an equivalent gain used more modest lies.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Wolfgang Steinel","Kalina Valtcheva","Jörg Gross","Jérémy Celse","Sylvain Max","Shaul Shalvi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102487","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-c9c51abce909b341","title":"How local is local development? Evidence from casinos","abstract":"One rationale for place-based policy is that local development produces positive productivity spillovers. We examine the employment spillovers from a large local development project: opening a casino. Comparing employment in neighborhoods that won a casino license to runner-up neighborhoods that narrowly lost, we find that casinos create jobs in their immediate vicinity. However, we estimate net job losses overall when considering the broader neighborhood. Employment gains concentrate in the leisure and hospitality industry, suggesting spillovers are industry-specific or are driven by demand-side forces like trip-chaining. We develop theory to show that our estimates imply a rapid spatial decay of productivity spillovers.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Ari Anisfeld","Jordan Rosenthal-Kay"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104139","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c9d613376ba05e5f","title":"Assortative Mating and Earnings Inequality in France","abstract":"This paper analyzes assortative mating and its contribution to inequality in France. We first provide descriptive evidence on the statistical association in several socio‐economic attributes of partners. Second, we assess the contribution of assortative mating to earnings inequality between couples. We provide a new method for assessing the contribution of assortative mating to inequality in couple’s potential earnings, that accounts for selection bias arising from labor force participation. Our results indicate a strong degree of assortative mating in France. The correlation in earnings is around 0.17 for annual earnings, around 0.35 for full‐time equivalent earnings and up to 0.49 when using multi‐year average earnings. Assortative mating tends to increase inequality among couples. For annual earnings, the effect accounts for 3 to 9 percent of measured inequality. The effect of assortative mating on household potential earnings is much larger and amounts to 10 to 20 percent for observed inequality.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Nicolas Frémeaux","Arnaud Lefranc"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12450","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-c9ec530df969a49b","title":"Collectivist Cultures and the Emergence of Family Firms","abstract":"Using a sample of 1,103 Chinese private-sector firms that went public during 2004–16, we find that founders of firms from regions with stronger collectivist cultures engage more family members as managers, retain more ownership in the family, and share the controlling ownership with more family members. These findings are robust to a battery of diagnostic tests to account for alternative institutional factors that may induce the relationships. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that because the collectivist culture reduces information asymmetry, shirking problems, and associated monitoring costs among family members, more family ownership and management are expected in firms when founders are from collectivist regions. The overall evidence supports the theory of the firm pioneered by Harold Demsetz and his coauthors.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Joseph P. H. Fan","Qiankun Gu","Xin Yu"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718853","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-c9f7f4d29dbd664a","title":"Returns and network growth of digital tokens after cross-listings","abstract":"This paper examines the role of cross-listings in the digital token marketplace ecosystem. Using a unique set of publicly available and hand-collected data from 3625 tokens traded in 108 marketplaces, we find significant increases in price, trading volume, network growth and on-chain activity around the date of a token's first cross-listing. Tokens earn a 16% crypto-market adjusted return in the two weeks around the cross-listing date. Daily network growth triples on the day of cross-listing. Using the uniquely heterogeneous characteristics of token marketplaces, we identify specific value-creation channels. We provide the first evidence supporting value creation through network externalities proposed by recent token-valuation models. Consistent with equity cross-listing theory, we find higher returns for cross-listings that reduce market segmentation and improve information production. Our reported findings have significant policy implications in terms of more transparent regulations to reduce financial misconduct in the digital marketplace.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Hugo Benedetti","Ehsan Nikbakht"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101853","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-c9fdda94655b2842","title":"Cross-section bootstrap for CCE regressions","abstract":"The Common Correlated Effects (CCE) methodology is now well established for the analysis of factor-augmented panel data models. Yet, it is often neglected that the pooled variant is biased unless the cross-section dimension (N) of the dataset dominates the time series length (T). This is problematic for inference with typical macroeconomic datasets, where T is often equal or larger than N. In response, we establish in this paper the theoretical foundation of the cross-section (CS) bootstrap for inference with CCE estimators in large N and T panels with TN−1→τ<∞. This resampling scheme is often used to estimate standard errors, yet without theoretical justification, and with unused potential, as we show it also provides a solution to the bias problem. We derive conditions under which the scheme replicates the distribution of the CCE estimators, such that bias can be eliminated and asymptotically valid inference can ensue. In so doing, we also spend attention to the case where factors need not be common across the dependent and explanatory variables, or when slopes are heterogeneous. Since we find that the CS-bootstrap applies in each case, researchers can stay agnostic on these issues. Simulation experiments show that the asymptotic properties also translate well to finite samples.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Ignace De Vos","Ovidijus Stauskas"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105648","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ca054cfc898a420e","title":"Are smart cities green? The role of environmental and digital policies for Eco-innovation in China","abstract":"In this paper, we employ negative binomial and quasi-natural experimental methods (i.e., Difference-in-Differences and Propensity Score Matching), whereby we examine the joint impact of environmental and digital policies (for designing smart cities) upon the generation of eco-innovations in China. Using longitudinal data for the period 2006–2018, we examine the changes in green patents granted: (i) due to the implementation of various levels of stringency of environmental policies across all cities; and (ii) after the introduction of smart city policies in 2012 in China. The prior literature stresses the importance of environmental policies, yet less attention has been paid to digital policies required to drive eco-innovation and their spatial dimension in the context of a developing economy. Our results show that, when digital policies (artificial intelligence and internet of things) are implemented in cities that have adopted strict environmental policies, the production of green patents increases. We contribute to debates in the literature of policy mix for sustainability transitions in the context of a developing economy by illustrating the importance of both types of policy for eco-innovation, as they correct two market failures and, more importantly, address the systemic coordination problems that occur during the production of green patents.","wordCount":198,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Despoina Filiou","Effie Kesidou","Lichao Wu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106212","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ca0cf5dd7391b9a8","title":"Cap and Escape in Trade Agreements","abstract":"We propose a model of flexible trade agreements in which verifying the prevailing contingencies is possible but costly. Two types of flexibility emerge: contingent protection, which requires governments to verify the state of the world, and discretionary protection, which allows governments to set tariffs unilaterally. The structure of the GATT/WTO agreement provides these two types of flexibility through a mechanism that we call Cap and Escape. Governments may choose tariffs unilaterally below the negotiated cap, but escaping from the cap requires state verification. We show that this framework explains key features of the GATT/WTO agreements, including the substantial variation across sectors and countries in the level of negotiated tariffs, and the rate at which different flexibility measures are used.","wordCount":119,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Mostafa Beshkar","Eric W. Bond"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160218","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ca13799e32fe98b1","title":"Nudging Early Reduces Administrative Burden: Three Field Experiments to Improve Code Enforcement","abstract":"In the past decade, public sector organizations around the world have worked to simplify administrative processes as a way to improve user experience and compliance. Academic evidence on administrative burden supports this approach and there is a strong body of research showing that learning costs, compliance costs, and psychological costs help to explain why residents do not always take up programs for which they are eligible. This article considers the role of these types of costs in a different set of resident‐state interactions: compliance with regulations. We present the results of three large field experiments aimed at improving resident compliance with municipal housing codes using targeted behavioral interventions. We find that contacting property owners earlier, redesigning first notices, and proactively communicating with previous violators, can significantly improve compliance by 14.7 percent, 3.3 percent, and 9.2 percent, respectively, with costs savings ranging from 6 to 15 percent of a city's annual enforcement budget. Our results counterintuitively suggest that sometimes adding steps to an administrative process can reduce the costs associated with the resident‐state interaction.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Elizabeth Linos","Lisa T. Quan","Elspeth Kirkman"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","K","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22178","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ca29e57e17dcbb68","title":"The effect of privacy regulation on the data industry: empirical evidence from GDPR","abstract":"Utilizing a novel dataset from an online travel intermediary, we study the effects of the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The opt‐in requirement of GDPR resulted in a 12.5% drop in the intermediary‐observed consumers, but the remaining consumers are trackable for a longer period of time. Our findings imply that privacy‐conscious consumers exert privacy externalities on opt‐in consumers, making them more predictable. Consistent with this finding, the average value of the remaining consumers to advertisers has increased, offsetting some of the losses from consumer opt‐outs.","wordCount":86,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Guy Aridor","Yeon‐Koo Che","Tobias Salz"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12455","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ca338f09c11235f3","title":"Food Deserts and the Causes of Nutritional Inequality","abstract":"We study the causes of “nutritional inequality”: why the wealthy eat more healthfully than the poor in the United States. Exploiting supermarket entry and household moves to healthier neighborhoods, we reject that neighborhood environments contribute meaningfully to nutritional inequality. We then estimate a structural model of grocery demand, using a new instrument exploiting the combination of grocery retail chains’ differing presence across geographic markets with their differing comparative advantages across product groups. Counterfactual simulations show that exposing low-income households to the same products and prices available to high-income households reduces nutritional inequality by only about 10%, while the remaining 90% is driven by differences in demand. These findings counter the argument that policies to increase the supply of healthy groceries could play an important role in reducing nutritional inequality.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Hunt Allcott","Rebecca Diamond","Jean-Pierre Dubé","Jessie Handbury","Ilya Rahkovsky","Molly Schnell"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz015","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ca4039fc73b55ef7","title":"Congestion and incentives in the age of driverless fleets","abstract":"The diffusion of autonomous vehicles (AVs) will expand the tools to manage congestion. Differently than fleets of traditional vehicles, operators of fleets of AVs will be able to assign different travelers to different routes, potentially inducing different congestion levels (and speed). We look at the effects of the technological transition from traditional to autonomous vehicles. Our model exhibits a unit mass of heterogeneous individuals. Some of them use the services of a fleet, while others do not, and travel independently. With few fleet users, the fleet technology (traditional vs automated vehicles) is immaterial to welfare. On the contrary, when there are many fleet users, we show that, if fleets do not price any individuals out of the market, the differentiation in congestion across routes under the automated fleet is welfare-reducing. When, instead, fleets price some individuals out of the market, the welfare effects of the transition are ambiguous and depend on the interplay between the extent of rationing by both types of fleets and the extent of differentiation by the AVs fleet. Finally, we characterize the tax restoring the first best with AVs. It involves charging different taxes across lanes, starkly different between independent travelers and the fleet. While independent travelers should be charged lane-specific congestion charges, the fleet should be imposed a scheme involving a congestion-based tax and a subsidy.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Federico Boffa","Alessandro Fedele","Alberto Iozzi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103591","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ca41fab96660d0b2","title":"Realized candlestick wicks","abstract":"We develop a novel nonparametric estimator of integrated variance by summing up the squared wick lengths of intraday candlesticks over a fixed time interval. The proposed wick-based estimator is robust to short-lived extreme price movements, such as gradual jumps and flash crashes. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, and show that its asymptotic variance is about four times smaller than the state-of-the-art differenced-return volatility (DV) estimator. We also develop a Hausman-type test for the presence of both jumps and episodic extreme price movements. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications further validate the practical reliability of our proposed estimator.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Yifan Li","Ingmar Nolte","Sandra Nolte","Shifan Yu"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ca4afe4c74177455","title":"Filling a dietary data gap? Validation of the adult male equivalent method of estimating individual nutrient intakes from household-level data in Ethiopia and Bangladesh","abstract":"Many researchers use data from Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys (HCES) to estimate individual food and nutrient intake when individual dietary data are not available. They assume that food is allocated within households according to members’ proportional energy requirements relative to an adult male (called an adult male equivalent, or AME). This study sought to validate AME-based estimates of individual consumption of calories, protein, iron, and animal source protein (ASP) across 10 age-sex categories, using data from Bangladesh and Ethiopia containing both household and individual-level consumption data. The study also assessed the accuracy of adjusting for meal partakers and physical activity levels (PAL), and compared energy-weighted AMEs to nutrient-specific AME predictions.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Jennifer Coates","Beatrice Lorge Rogers","Alexander Blau","Jacqueline M Lauer","Alemzewed Roba"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.08.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ca4eb4d3e5583374","title":"Political Bias in Corporate News: The Role of Conglomeration Reform in China","abstract":"Using textual analyses of 1.77 million articles, we find that, through the Chinese government’s conglomeration reform that reorganizes official and nonofficial newspapers from the same locale into a news group under state control, there is an increase (decrease) in positive tone and political content in official (nonofficial) newspaper articles. The evidence is consistent with official newspapers becoming more concentrated on political goals and nonofficial newspapers becoming more focused on commercial objectives, thus better enabling the newspaper industry to pursue a dual role as the government’s mouthpiece and an information institution supporting the market economy. Our results are robust to using a matched firm-month research design that examines the content of articles written about the same firm in the same month, a matched firm-event approach that examines concurrent newspaper articles published immediately following corporate earnings announcements, and a difference-in-differences approach to test for conglomeration effects.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Joseph D. Piotroski","T.J. Wong","Tianyu Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/693096","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ca5dd2258c1b4a5b","title":"U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle","abstract":"U.S. monetary policy shocks induce comovements in the international financial variables that characterize the “Global Financial Cycle.” A single global factor that explains an important share of the variation of risky asset prices around the world decreases significantly after a U.S. monetary tightening. Monetary contractions in the US lead to significant deleveraging of global financial intermediaries, a decline in the provision of domestic credit globally, strong retrenchments of international credit flows, and tightening of foreign financial conditions. Countries with floating exchange rate regimes are subject to similar financial spillovers.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Silvia Miranda‐Agrippino","Hélène Rey"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa019","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ca6bcba3df005bfa","title":"Live tutoring calls did not improve learning during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sierra Leone","abstract":"Education systems regularly face unexpected school closures, whether due to disease outbreaks, natural disasters, or other adverse shocks. In low-income countries where internet access is scarce, distance learning - the most common educational solution - is often passive, via TV or radio, with little opportunity for teacher-student interaction. In this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of live tutoring calls from teachers, designed to supplement radio instruction during the 2020 school closures prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We do this with a randomised controlled trial with 4,399 primary school students in Sierra Leone. Tutoring calls led to some limited increase in educational activity, but had no effect on mathematics or language test scores, whether for girls or boys, and whether provided by public or private school teachers. Even having received tutoring calls, one in three children reported not listening to educational radio at all, so limited take-up may partly explain our results.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Lee Crawfurd","David K. Evans","Susannah Hares","Justin Sandefur"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103114","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ca7053cec71c779e","title":"Chinese household saving and dependent children: Theory and evidence","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of family size on household saving. We first study a theoretical life-cycle model that includes finite lifetimes and saving for retirement and in which parents care about the consumption by their dependent children. The model implies a negative relationship between the number of dependent children in the family and the household saving rate. Then, we test the model's implications using new survey data on household finances in China. We use the differential enforcement of the one-child policy across counties to address the possible endogeneity between household saving and fertility decisions in a two-stage least squares Tobit regression. We find that Chinese families with fewer dependent children have significantly higher saving rates. The data yields several additional insights on household saving patterns. Households with college-age children have lower saving rates, and households residing in urban areas have higher saving rates and a lower ratio of education expenditures to income. However, having an additional child reduces saving rates more for households in urban areas than in rural areas. Our regressions also indicate that saving rates vary with age and tend to be higher for households with more workers, higher education, better health, and more assets.","wordCount":198,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Steven Lugauer","Jinlan Ni","Zhichao Yin"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.08.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ca732426ac5fd919","title":"On rational forward-looking behavior in economic geography: An experimental analysis","abstract":"This paper adapts the canonical New Economic Geography model for experimental testing of the model's behavioral assumptions by developing a finite-player, finite-horizon dynamic game of migration. Our analysis gives distinctive predictions when migration is consistent with myopic behavior (MB) and when it is consistent with sequentially rational or perfect forward-looking behavior (FB). These alternatives are tested in an economic laboratory experiment with increasing number of agents in different treatments. Results show that perfect FB loses ground against MB as the number of agents and periods increases, and this number may be surprisingly small.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Iván Barreda‐Tarrazona","Tapas Kundu","Stein Østbye"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103654","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ca744fb001a24099","title":"To “vape” or smoke? Experimental evidence on adult smokers","abstract":"A growing share of the United States population uses e-cigarettes but the optimal regulation of these controversial products remains an open question. We conduct a discrete choice experiment to investigate how adult tobacco cigarette smokers' demand for e-cigarettes and tobacco cigarettes varies by four attributes: (i) whether e-cigarettes are considered healthier than tobacco cigarettes, (ii) the effectiveness of e-cigarettes as a cessation device, (iii) bans on use in public places, and (iv) price. We find that adult smokers' demand for e-cigarettes is motivated more by health concerns than by the desire to avoid smoking bans or higher prices.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Joachim Marti","John Buckell","Johanna Catherine Maclean","Jody L. Sindelar"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12693","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ca80de3e36452078","title":"Exporting Liquidity: Branch Banking and Financial Integration","abstract":"Using exogenous liquidity windfalls from oil and natural gas shale discoveries, we demonstrate that bank branch networks help integrate U.S. lending markets. Banks exposed to shale booms enjoy liquidity inflows, which increase their capacity to originate and hold new loans. Exposed banks increase mortgage lending in nonboom counties, but only where they have branches and only for hard‐to‐securitize mortgages. Our findings suggest that contracting frictions limit the ability of arm's length finance to integrate credit markets fully. Branch networks continue to play an important role in financial integration, despite the development of securitization markets.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Erik Gilje","Elena Loutskina","Philip E. Strahan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12387","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ca9378489c4602e6","title":"Reassessing the great compression among top earners: The overlooked role of taxation and self-employment","abstract":"This paper provides new estimates of wage inequality in the United States from 1918 to 1949, leveraging a novel top-income methodology that integrates both tax records and census data. Our analysis reveals no sustained decline in wage inequality before the Second World War but a marked decrease during the war years. This decline was driven primarily by stagnation among the top 1 % of earners and significant wage growth at the lower end of the income distribution. However, the relative underperformance of the top earners was largely influenced by a major compositional shift triggered by unprecedented increases in corporate and personal income tax rates. These tax changes led to a shift in business preferences toward partnerships, resulting in a substantial transition from salaried employment to self-employment. This shift, previously overlooked in inequality studies, resulted in a 30 % overestimation of wage compression, significantly altering the wage distribution dynamics of the 1940s.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Miguel Artola Blanco","Victor Manuel Gómez-Blanco"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101651","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ca9a1f5de330b843","title":"Work from Home before and after the COVID-19 Outbreak","abstract":"Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence, we argue that three-quarters of this increase reflects the adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to survey data predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time postpandemic compared to prepandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays will be WFH. These model predictions are consistent with survey evidence on workers’ own expectations about WFH in the future.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Alexander Bick","Adam Blandin","Karel Mertens"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210061","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cac7208a0b8fdfea","title":"Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy","abstract":"We propose a new model for measuring uncertainty and its effects on the economy, based on a large vector autoregression with stochastic volatility driven by common factors representing macroeconomic and financial uncertainty. The uncertainty measures reflect changes in both the conditional mean and volatility of the variables, and their impact on the economy can be assessed within the same framework. Estimates with U.S. data show substantial commonality in uncertainty, with sizable effects of uncertainty on key macroeconomic and financial variables. However, historical decompositions show a limited role of uncertainty shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Andrea Carriero","Todd E. Clark","Massimiliano Marcellino"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00693","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-cac9feeff9262227","title":"The Cost of Traffic: Evidence from the London Congestion Charge","abstract":"This paper exploits the implementation of the London Congestion Charge (LCC) to provide credible estimates on the willingness to pay to avoid traffic using the housing market. This policy curtails road traffic by imposing a fee on anyone driving into the charge zone. My results show that the LCC is associated with significant improvement in traffic conditions and housing values. Instrumenting local traffic conditions with the enforcement of the LCC, and limiting the analysis to properties proximate to the charge boundary, I find that the elasticity of housing values with respect to traffic is -0.30. These findings suggest that the consequential improvement in traffic conditions due to the LCC has generated substantial windfall of more than £3.8 billion for homeowners in the zone.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Cheng Keat Tang"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103302","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cad123c4ab13a153","title":"Collective Action by Contract: Prior Appropriation and the Development of Irrigation in the Western United States","abstract":"We analyze the economic characteristics of prior-appropriation water rights adopted across the US West in the 19th century. Much of the region’s massive irrigation infrastructure was developed by private irrigators. We develop a model to show how prior appropriation facilitated investment by securing water against future claims and defining a property right to a specific amount of water that was the basis for contracting among numerous heterogeneous agents. We construct a data set of over 7,000 water rights in Colorado from 1852 to 2013, including location, date, size, infrastructure investment, irrigated acreage, and geographic characteristics to test the predictions of the model. We find that prior appropriation facilitated cooperation through contracting, increasing infrastructure investment, and promoting irrigated agriculture that contributed up to 16 percent of western states’ income by 1930. Areas with preexisting norms for supporting collective action exhibit smaller differences in investment based on formal contracts.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Bryan Leonard","Gary D. Libecap"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700934","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cad5e6c1a7273589","title":"Overlap in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates","abstract":"Estimating causal effects under exogeneity hinges on two key assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. Researchers often argue that unconfoundedness is more plausible when more covariates are included in the analysis. Less discussed is the fact that covariate overlap is more difficult to satisfy in this setting. In this paper, we explore the implications of overlap in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates and formalize curse-of-dimensionality argument, suggesting that these assumptions are stronger than investigators likely realize. Our key innovation is to explore how strict overlap restricts global discrepancies between the covariate distributions in the treated and control populations. Exploiting results from information theory, we derive explicit bounds on the average imbalance in covariate means under strict overlap and show that these bounds become more restrictive as the dimension grows large. We discuss how these implications interact with assumptions and procedures commonly deployed in observational causal inference, including sparsity and trimming.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Alexander D’Amour","Peng Ding","Avi Feller","Lihua Lei","Jasjeet S. Sekhon"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.10.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cad791cdbffcd6d7","title":"Testing R&D‐Based Endogenous Growth Models","abstract":"This study examines US productivity growth through the lens of R&D‐based growth models. A general R&D‐based model, nesting different model varieties, is developed. These varieties are tested using a novel cointegrating relationship and US data for the period 1953–2018. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and support for other varieties including the semi‐endogenous variety. Further, the results are systematically consistent with the presence of fishing‐out effects in knowledge production, implying that productivity‐enhancing innovations become increasingly harder to achieve as technologies become more advanced. Forecasts suggest that the US productivity growth slowdown continues over the coming decades.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Peter Kruse-Andersen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12552","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-caefc28a0e614257","title":"Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks","abstract":"We document that the aggregate price level responds flexibly and asymmetrically to large positive and negative value-added tax changes. We present a price-setting model with menu costs, trend inflation, and fat-tailed product-level shocks that is consistent with these observations. The model predicts a flexible price-level response to standard monetary policy shocks because it anticipates a large number of firms on the verge of price adjustment and far from their optimal prices when the shock hits.","wordCount":75,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Péter Karádi","Ádám Reiff"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160054","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-caf2a321fc8dcb42","title":"Ascending from the bottom rung: The labor market assimilation of rural-urban migrants in Sweden, 1880–1910","abstract":"This article examines the assimilation of rural-born people into the urban economy in the industrialization context, focusing on Sweden from 1880 to 1910—a time characterized by a notable shift in economic activity towards urban areas. I utilize individual-level data on three cohorts of rural-urban migrants linked across census records, allowing for an examination of their labor market assimilation across all Swedish towns. The main findings suggest that the labor market assimilation of male migrants followed a Chiswick-like process, regardless of the size of the destination area. Initially, migrants displayed a sizeable negative gap in labor market outcomes compared to urban natives, which narrowed with the time spent in the urban area. Nevertheless, they never managed to close the gap over time. By contrast, female migrants displayed few signs of converging with female natives. Migrants’ inability to close the gap was likely due to the non-transferability of skills between the rural and urban sectors. The convergence that did occur can be explained by the potential for upward mobility from the relatively low initial positions migrants entered and, to some extent, negative selection into return migration.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jonatan Andersson"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101690","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-caf4e9f6da1c1f27","title":"Evolving gaps: Occupational structure in southern and northern Italy, 1400–1861","abstract":"During the Risorgimento (1800–61), southern Italy was less industrial than central‐northern Italy and initially agricultural provinces in the north saw rapid structural transformation. During the Renaissance (1400–1600), structural transformation in the south led to a near halving of the initial difference in agricultural employment share between the centre‐north and the south, but convergence came to a halt with the ‘seventeenth‐century crisis’. These trends suggest that regional inequality was evolving rather than persistent.","wordCount":72,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["David Chilosi","Carlo Ciccarelli"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13159","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cafa9704c96e983e","title":"Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel","abstract":"This paper evaluates the role of redistribution in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to consumption. Three channels affect aggregate spending when winners and losers have different marginal propensities to consume: an earnings heterogeneity channel from unequal income gains, a Fisher channel from unexpected inflation, and an interest rate exposure channel from real interest rate changes. Sufficient statistics from Italian and US data suggest that all three channels are likely to amplify the effects of monetary policy.","wordCount":77,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Adrien Auclert"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160137","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cafb471d859c12bb","title":"Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth","abstract":"What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? One prominent line of economic thinking is the trend toward stagnation. Stagnationism has a long history in economics, beginning prominently with Malthus and occasionally surfacing in different guises. Prominent themes here are the following: Will economic growth slow and perhaps even reverse under the weight of resource depletion? Will overpopulation and diminishing returns lower living standards? Will unchecked CO 2 emissions lead to catastrophic changes in climate and human systems? Have we depleted the store of potential great inventions? Will the aging society lead to diminished innovativeness?","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["William D. Nordhaus"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cb0df25a7cc897c7","title":"Intergenerational effects of parental human capital on children: Evidence from Malawi","abstract":"We investigate the intergenerational transmission of parental education on children’s outcomes in Malawi. Using the variations induced by the Free Primary Education reform implemented in 1994, we find that an extra year of mothers’ and fathers’ schooling increases children’s schooling years by 0.19 and 0.16 years, respectively. Children with more educated mothers are less likely to work, while no such evidence is found for children with more educated fathers. We examine an array of potential mechanisms, including assortative mating , reduced fertility, and improvements in family resources. We find that spousal quality, fertility response, and a narrower age gap between spouses may be the underlying channels for the intergenerational transmission of education.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Youjin Hahn","Minji Kwak","Hyelim Son"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.03.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cb15117a198372f2","title":"The geography of mortgage interest deductions","abstract":"We investigate the heterogeneous impact of the US federal mortgage interest deduction (MID) on households’ location and tenure decisions. We develop a spatial general-equilibrium model featuring non-homothetic preferences in which households can choose whether to claim the MID or a standard tax deduction. Repealing the MID decreases homeownership rates more strongly in central areas because owner-occupiers migrate to the countryside. Welfare increases slightly because positive externalities from less congested housing markets and undistorted tenure decisions outweigh productivity losses in central locations. An increase in standard tax deductions, as implemented in 2018 by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, leads to a similar welfare increase.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Yashar Blouri","Simon Büchler","Olivier Schöni"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103604","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cb191af62583f3b2","title":"The long‐term effects of conditional cash transfers on child labor and school enrollment","abstract":"This paper investigates the long‐term effects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Família . Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Marcel Peruffo","Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12457","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cb286859cb580546","title":"The political economy of state responses to infectious disease","abstract":"How can public policy best deal with infectious disease? In answering this question, scholarship on the optimal control of infectious disease adopts the model of a benevolent social planner who maximizes social welfare. This approach, which treats the social health planner as a unitary \"public health brain\" standing outside of society, removes the policymaking process from economic analysis. This paper opens the black box of the social health planner by extending the tools of economics to the policymaking process itself. We explore the nature of the economic problem facing policymakers and the epistemic constraints they face in trying to solve that problem. Additionally, we analyze the incentives facing policymakers in their efforts to address infectious diseases and consider how they affect the design and implementation of public health policy. Finally, we consider how unanticipated system effects emerge due to interventions in complex systems, and how these effects can undermine well-intentioned efforts to improve human welfare. We illustrate the various dynamics of the political economy of state responses to infectious disease by drawing on a range of examples from the COVID-19 pandemic.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Christopher J. Coyne","Thomas K. Duncan","Abigail R. Hall"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12490","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cb29ad7a9bb632fa","title":"Intrahousehold Bargaining, Female Autonomy, and Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence from India","abstract":"Standard models of labor supply predict that unearned income decreases labor supply. We propose an alternative noncooperative household model in which a woman’s unearned income improves her autonomy within the household, which raises her gains from working and can increase her labor supply. We find empirical support for this model, using women’s exposure to the Hindu Succession Act in India as a source of exogenous variation in their unearned income. Exposure to the Hindu Succession Act increases a woman’s labor supply by between 3.8 and 6.1 percentage points, particularly into high-paying jobs. Autonomy increased by 0.17 standard deviations, suggesting that control of income is a potential channel for these effects. Thus, policies that empower women can have an additional impact on the labor market, which can further reinforce autonomy increases.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Rachel Heath","Xu Tan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz026","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cb34e30a4a84d51c","title":"Sex hormones and choice under risk","abstract":"We study the correlation of choice under risk in Holt–Laury lotteries for gains and losses with gender, the use of hormonal contraceptives, menstrual cycle information, salivary testosterone, estradiol, progesterone, and cortisol as well as the digit ratio (2D:4D; length of the index finger to the ring finger of the right hand) in more than 200 subjects (45% females). In males, salivary testosterone is negatively correlated with risk aversion for gains only. In females, salivary cortisol is positively correlated with risk aversion for gains only. No other significant correlations between risk preferences and salivary hormones are observed. No significant correlations between risk preferences and the menstrual cycle are observed in naturally cycling females. No significant correlations between risk preferences and the digit ratio are observed in either gender and/or race.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Burkhard C. Schipper"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2023.102607","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cb442282cb7cec9b","title":"Presidential Elections, Divided Politics, and Happiness in the <scp>USA</scp>","abstract":"We examine the effects of the 2016 and 2012 US presidential election outcomes on subjective wellbeing across party identification. We use Gallup data and a regression discontinuity approach, and focus primarily on evaluative (life satisfaction) and hedonic (positive and negative affect) indicators. We find that both elections had strong negative wellbeing effects on those who identified with the losing party, with little or no increase in wellbeing for those identifying with the winning party. The negative effects for the losing side were larger in 2016 than in 2012, by a factor of three on some indicators, and were driven mainly by women and middle‐income households. As such, both elections had a net negative wellbeing effect, but more so in 2016. Local voting patterns did not have a substantial wellbeing impact, nor did congressional elections taking place the same day. In 2016, the election also changed respondents’ perceptions about the economy, their financial status, and their community. After both elections, hedonic wellbeing gaps across parties typically dissipated within two weeks, but there was more persistence in evaluative wellbeing gaps, especially in expected life satisfaction. The latter gap persisted throughout 2017.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Sérgio Pinto","Panka Bencsik","Tuugi Chuluun","Carol Graham"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12349","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-cb449047f6e39dab","title":"Full farsighted rationality","abstract":"An abstract game consists of a set of states, preferences over states, and an effectivity correspondence specifying what coalitions are allowed to replace one state by another one. Agents are called farsighted if, when deciding whether to support a coalition's move, they compare the status quo to the long term outcome following their deviation. Yet, this definition of farsightedness ignores a coalition's option to remain at the status quo allowing another coalition to move: agents are not fully farsighted. Therefore, we introduce extended expectation functions, which assign to each state a list of pairs consisting of a state and a coalition that is expected to move from the former to the latter. They endow agents with an expectation about what any deviation vis-a-vis maintaining the status quo entails. We impose three rationality axioms and provide a characterization of extended expectation functions that satisfy our axioms in terms of coalition behavior.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Dominik Karos","Laura Robles"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.09.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cb481ec4a85a4bad","title":"Is digital transformation the Deus ex Machina towards sustainability transition of the European SMEs?","abstract":"The 2030 Digital Compass aligned with the European Green Deal prioritize transparency through the digital transformation of the European SMEs paving the way to a more sustainable production paradigm. Thus, a twin transition is in motion facilitated by the New Industrial Strategy supporting the adoption of green business strategies across industrial ecosystems. This paper investigates whether the digital transformation and the decision to participate in public procurement as a transparent external funding source support adoption of business actions fostering sustainability transition. Data over more than 20,000 SMEs in the EU-28 over the period 2015–2019 complemented by country-specific attributes towards sustainability and institutional business environment are combined. Econometric results indicate that digital transformation fosters sustainability transition. Although participation in public tenders exerts a positive and systematic effect on the adoption of a sustainability supporting strategy, the two decisions appear independent indicating that SMEs are determined to shift the production paradigm irrespectively. Business operational problems affect but not deter sustainability transition. Business corruption in countries of low levels of sustainability impedes sustainable business actions, yet evidence favors higher transparency. The latter highlights the necessity towards building a coherent although adaptable institutional framework. This study contributes to SDGs 7, 12, 13 and 16.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Nikos Chatzistamoulou"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107739","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cb4905f22e5e6be0","title":"The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Income Inequality of Target States","abstract":"In this paper, we draw on established theoretical work to analyze empirically which segments of the population in the target states bear the most cost when economic sanctions are imposed. Using a cross-country analysis of 68 target states from 1960 to 2008, we find robust empirical evidence that the imposition of sanctions has a deleterious effect on income inequality. Focusing on various sanction instruments, financial and trade sanctions were found to have different impacts on income inequality. Lastly, the adverse effect of the sanctions is more severe on income inequality when sanctions span longer duration.","wordCount":95,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor","Renuka Mahadevan"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","P"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.03.015","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-cb4a9fb7d20b0158","title":"No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870–2012","abstract":"How have house prices evolved over the long run? This paper presents annual house prices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. We show that real house prices stayed constant from the nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century, but rose strongly and with substantial cross-country variation in the second half of the twentieth century. Land prices, not replacement costs, are the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices. Rising land prices explain about 80 percent of the global house price boom that has taken place since World War II. Our findings have implications for the evolution of wealth-to-income ratios, the growth effects of agglomeration, and the price elasticity of housing supply.","wordCount":110,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Katharina Knoll","Moritz Schularick","Thomas Steger"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150501","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cb730819bc0d2c49","title":"On the priming of risk preferences: The role of fear and general affect","abstract":"Priming is an established tool in psychology for investigating aspects of cognitive processes underlying decision making and is increasingly applied in economics. We report a systematic attempt to test the reproducibility and generalisability of priming effects on risk attitudes in a more diverse population than professionals and students, when priming using either a positive or a negative experience. We further test fear as the causal mechanism underlying countercyclical risk aversion. Across a series of experiments with a total sample of over 1900 participants, we are unable to find any systematic effect of priming on risk preferences. Moreover, our results challenge the role of fear as the mechanism underlying countercyclical risk aversion; we find evidence of an impact of general affect such that the better our participants feel, the more risk they take. \\n \\n","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Despoina Alempaki","Chris Starmer","Fabio Tufano"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2018.12.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cb787173528147d2","title":"Central bank mandates and monetary policy stances: Through the lens of Federal Reserve speeches","abstract":"The Federal Reserve System has an institutional mandate to pursue price stability and maximum sustainable employment; however, it remains unclear whether it can also pursue secondary objectives. The academic literature has largely argued that it should not. We characterize the Fed’s interpretation of its mandate using state-of-the-art methods from natural language processing, including a collection of large language models (LLMs) that we modify for enhanced performance on central bank texts. We apply these methods and models to a comprehensive corpus of Fed speeches delivered between 1960 and 2022. We find that the Fed perceives financial stability to be the most important policy concern that is not directly enumerated in its mandate, especially in times when the debt-to-GDP ratio is high, but does not generally treat it as a separate policy objective. In its policy discourse, it has frequently discussed the use of monetary policy to achieve financial stability, which we demonstrate generates movements in asset prices, even after rigorously controlling for macroeconomic and financial variables.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Christoph Bertsch","Isaiah Hull","Robin L. Lumsdaine","Xin Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.105948","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cb8323d99a3cc632","title":"Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China","abstract":"This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. Urbanization and structural transformation emerge as key drivers of China's house price boom, while at the same time rising house prices impede these forces of economic transition. Policies to boost urbanization can be undone by the endogenous price response. Land supply expansion ameliorates this negative feedback. Overall, housing markets powerfully shape the path of economic development.","wordCount":91,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Carlos Garriga","Aaron Hedlund","Yang Tang","Ping Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160142","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cb84154377e5bbb0","title":"Does environmental law enforcement supervision improve corporate carbon reduction performance? Evidence from environmental protection interview","abstract":"In response to the challenge of carbon emissions , countries worldwide have implemented a diverse range of environmental policies . However, the inefficient implementation of these policies remains a remarkable hurdle in the process of carbon governance. Exploiting the environmental protection interview (EPI) initiated in 2014 and 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment and utilizing firm-level data from 2011 to 2018, this study investigates whether the enhanced supervision of local environmental law enforcement by the central government causes changes in corporate carbon reduction performance (CCRP) based on the Staggered DID model. We observe that EPI notably improves CCRP, and this enhancement manifests both immediately and persistently over time. Furthermore, the impact of EPI on CCRP is more pronounced among large-scale enterprises , enterprises with low financing constraints, and those with weak political affiliations. Mechanism analysis indicates that government pollution control efforts, public environmental awareness, and enterprise source control are pivotal factors that strengthen the effectiveness of EPI. This study reveals the positive effects of EPI in achieving carbon reduction goals and underscores the vital role of institutionalized law enforcement supervision mechanisms as a fundamental prerequisite for policy efficacy.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Junyu Pan","Lizhao Du","Haitao Wu","Xiaoqian Liu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107441","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cb85a97fd8daaa01","title":"Machine learning in the Chinese stock market","abstract":"We add to the emerging literature on empirical asset pricing in the Chinese stock market by building and analyzing a comprehensive set of return prediction factors using various machine learning algorithms. Contrasting previous studies for the US market, liquidity emerges as the most important predictor, leading us to closely examine the impact of transaction costs. The retail investors’ dominating presence positively affects short-term predictability, particularly for small stocks. Another feature that distinguishes the Chinese market from the US market is the high predictability of large stocks and state-owned enterprises over longer horizons. The out-of-sample performance remains economically significant after transaction costs.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Markus Leippold","Qian Wang","Wenyu Zhou"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.08.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cba934694669310e","title":"Cash transfers, climatic shocks and resilience in the Sahel","abstract":"Policy makers search for strategies to promote resilience and mitigate the effects of future climatic shocks. In this paper, we assess whether small regular cash transfers strengthen poor households' ability to mitigate the welfare effects of drought shocks. We analyze mechanisms through which cash transfers contribute to resilience, including savings, asset accumulation as well as income smoothing in agriculture and off-farm activities. We combine household survey data collected as part of a randomized control trial in rural Niger with satellite data used to identify exogenous rainfall shocks. The results show that cash transfers increase household consumption by about 10 percent on average. Importantly, this increase is mostly concentrated among households affected by drought shocks, for whom welfare impacts are larger than transfer amounts due to households' enhanced ability to protect earnings in agriculture and off-farm businesses when shocks occur. The results suggest that multi-year cash transfer programs can foster poor households’ resilience by facilitating savings and income smoothing.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Patrick Prémand","Quentin Stoeffler"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102744","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cbb2f5eaa8ee0b66","title":"Discouragement effect and intermediate prizes in multi-stage contests: Evidence from Davis Cup","abstract":"The discouragement effect of being the lagging player in multi-stage contests is a well-documented phenomenon. In this study, we utilize data from 2,447 Davis Cup matches in team tennis tournaments to test the effect of being behind or ahead on individuals’ performance with and without intermediate prizes. Using several different strategies to disentangle the effect of being ahead in the interim score from the effect of selection, we find the usual discouragement effect. However, the discouragement effect disappears after the introduction of intermediate prizes in the form of ranking points. The lagging favorite had close to a 20-percentage point greater probability of winning compared to matches without such a prize. We show that this result is not driven by the selection of better players into tournaments with intermediate prizes. As predicted by previous theoretical studies, our empirical findings suggest that intermediate prizes may mitigate or even eliminate the ahead-behind effects that arise in multi-stage contests. Keywords: collective decision-making, multi-stage contests, discouragement, tennis","wordCount":162,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Hamzah Iqbal","Alex Krumer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cbc3ddcde0695989","title":"Product variety, across‐market demand heterogeneity, and the value of online retail","abstract":"Online retail gives consumers access to an astonishing variety of products. However, the additional value created by this variety depends on the extent to which local retailers already satisfy local demand. To quantify the gains and account for local demand, we use detailed data from an online retailer and propose methodology to address a common issue in such data—sparsity of local sales due to sampling and a significant number of local zeros. Our estimates indicate products face substantial demand heterogeneity across markets; as a result, we find gains from online variety that are 45% lower than previous studies.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Thomas Quan","Kevin Williams"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12255","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cbc538ee98b5662c","title":"Tracing the Evolution of Agglomeration Economies: Spain, 1860–1991","abstract":"Using district population in Spain between 1860 and 1991, recorded approximately every decade, this article examines whether initial population affects subsequent population growth. While such a relationship between these two variables hardly existed during the second half of the nineteenth century, this link increased significantly between 1910 and 1970, although this trend was abruptly interrupted by the Civil War and the autarkic period that followed. The intensity of this relationship decreased in the 1970s, a process that continued during the 1980s. Our findings also stress that agglomeration economies were stronger in medium-size districts, especially from 1960 onwards.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia","Alfonso Díez‐Minguela","Julio Martínez‐Galarraga"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000086","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-cbc6cec9e4a75280","title":"The effect of institutional ownership on listed companies’ tax avoidance strategies","abstract":"The percentage of institutional ownership in China has increased gradually. Does this characteristic of Chinese institutional investors affect their participation in corporate governance, which in turn, affects corporate tax avoidance activities? We take 1108 listed Chinese companies from 2009 to 2017 to study this issue. The paper uses average daily total market capitalization as an instrumental variable to test the endogeneity problems. We run a quantile regression (QR) at the median level as robustness testing to overcome the fat tail of financial data. Then, the shareholding ratio of majority shareholders is introduced to verify that ownership concentration is one of the mechanisms through which institutional shareholders influence corporate tax avoidance decisions. The findings are as follows: The proportion of institutional investors’ shareholdings is positively related to the degree of enterprise tax avoidance. The increase in institutional investors’ shareholdings is likely to promote corporate tax avoidance. When the level of ownership concentration is low, the increase in institutional ownership can play a greater role in promoting tax avoidance.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Yunyun Jiang","Hai-Tao Zheng","Ran Wang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1817308","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cbc98aace4a401cc","title":"Patenting inventions or inventing patents? Continuation practice at the USPTO","abstract":"Continuations allow inventors to add new claims to old patents, leading to concerns about unintended infringement and holdup. We study how continuations are used in standard essential patent (SEP) prosecution. Difference in differences estimates suggest that continuation filings increase by 80%–121% after a standard is published. This effect is larger for applicants with licensing‐based business models and for patent examiners with a higher allowance rate. Claim language is more similar for SEPs filed after standard publication, and late‐filing is positively correlated with litigation. These findings suggest widespread use of continuations to draft patents that are infringed by already‐published standards.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Cesare Righi","Timothy Simcoe"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12446","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cbd5e3935d9fe168","title":"Adversity-hope hypothesis: Air pollution raises lottery demand in China","abstract":"The empirical literature points to a stylized phenomenon of increased demand for hope following adversity. Clotfelter and Cook (1989) suggest that hope is a key sentiment underpinning recreational gambling. Chew and Ho (1994, this journal) offer the view of hope being experienced in lottery products when people enjoy delaying the resolution of uncertainty. Taking air quality as an indicator of subjective well-being, we hypothesize a positive causal relationship between air pollution and lottery sales. We test this hypothesis using data from China and find that air pollution measured by particle concentration increases demand for a popular lottery for which province-level daily sales records exist. The relationship can readily be seen on combining high-frequency, spatially resolved lottery sales and particle pollution data. Our findings support the adversity-hope hypothesis in the context of air quality and lottery sales and point to further tests using other measures of adversity and proxies of demand for hope.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Soo Hong Chew","Haoming Liu","Alberto Salvo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09353-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cbe07039e2f7090f","title":"State-dependent fiscal multipliers in NORA - A DSGE model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway","abstract":"We develop a novel medium-scale DSGE model, called NORA, for fiscal policy analysis in Norway. NORA contains a sheltered and exposed sector allowing us to model wage bargaining between a labor union and the exposed sector, reflecting Scandinavian wage formation institutions. Wages are subject to a downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). Inspired by many countries' fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession and the coronavirus pandemic, we investigate the model's ability to generate state-dependent fiscal multipliers. We find, that both the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and DNWR individually can account for higher fiscal multipliers during recessions. In joint presence, however, the existence of DNWR reduces the multiplier at the ZLB. Moreover, the DNWR significantly relaxes the paradox of toil at the ZLB. We show that the state-dependency is robust to alternative assumptions about the origin of the recession, the nature of the fiscal stimulus and its financing source.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Thor Andreas Aursland","Ivan Frankovic","Birol Kanık","Magnus Saxegaard"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.07.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cbe4350b2e25732e","title":"Strategic limitation of market accessibility: Search platform design and welfare","abstract":"This paper explores the relationship between market accessibility and various participants' welfare in an intermediated directed-search market. For a general class of meeting technologies, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition under which efficiency requires imperfect accessibility, such that each seller's listing is only observed by some but not all buyers. We show that the platform optimally implements the efficient outcome, but fully extracts surplus from the transactions it intermediates. We also find that in general, buyers prefer to minimize market accessibility, while sellers prefer a weakly greater accessibility level than that which is socially efficient. The efficiency of imperfect accessibility is robust to the introduction of a second chance for unmatched buyers to search.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Christopher Teh","Chengsi Wang","Makoto Watanabe"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105798","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cbe600e73f8a5fa1","title":"Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence","abstract":"This paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impacts of crude oil price shocks on financial markets through an examination of the effect of oil price shocks on the issuance of corporate green bonds. Green bond issuance has been growing fast over the past several years; despite this, the share of green bonds in the total bonds remains less than 1%. Using the multilevel models, this study investigates the effect of flow oil-supply, flow oil-demand, and speculative oil-demand shocks on (1) probability of the corporate green bond issuance and (2) the share of corporate green bond issuance. We find that flow supply shocks, flow demand shocks and the issuance of sovereign green bonds have a positive and significant effect on the probability of the issuance of corporate green bonds, but shocks have no significant impact on the share of the corporate green bond issuance. The results are robust to alternative specifications of our models.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Dina Azhgaliyeva","Zhanna Kapsalyamova","Ranjeeta Mishra"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106108","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cc1eae9a0ce31962","title":"Stock price effects of climate activism: Evidence from the first Global Climate Strike","abstract":"The first Global Climate Strike on March 15, 2019, represented a historical turning point in climate activism. We investigate the cross-section of stock price reactions to this event for a large sample of European firms. The strike's unanticipated success caused a decrease in the stock prices of carbon-intensive firms. The effect appears to be driven by the increased public attention to climate activism. Furthermore, after the first Global Climate Strike financial analysts downgraded their longer-term earnings forecasts on carbon-intensive firms.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Stefano Ramelli","Elisa Ossola","Michela Rancan"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102018","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cc373c7e9c7357a6","title":"Outsourcing horizontally differentiated tasks under asymmetric information","abstract":"An efficient manufacturer can simultaneously internalize some tasks it is worst at and externalize some tasks it is best at. We explore how asymmetric information affects task assignment between a manufacturer and its supplier when tasks are horizontally differentiated, and when the comparative advantage in terms of marginal costs differs during the production process. We show that the manufacturer over-outsources to a generalist supplier and under-outsources to a specialist supplier depending on its level of efficiency. The presence of countervailing incentives drives these results. When the manufacturer’s internal costs are sufficiently low, it can externalize some of its best tasks and internalize its worst tasks. These two distortions simultaneously affect the contract offered to the generalist supplier.","wordCount":117,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Christophe Bernard","Sébastien Mitraille"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102971","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cc40cbd9b740edb0","title":"The Rise and Fall of Female Labor Force Participation During World War II in the United States","abstract":"I use new data on employment and job placements during WWII to characterize the wartime surge in female work and its subsequent impact on female employment in the United States. The geography of female wartime work was primarily driven by industrial mobilization, not drafted men’s withdrawal from local labor markets. After the war, returning veterans and sharp cutbacks in war-related industries displaced many new female entrants, despite interest in continued work. As a result, areas most exposed to wartime work show limited overall effects on female labor force participation in 1950 and only marginal increases in durables manufacturing employment.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Evan K. Rose"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000323","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cc5b4429a8b98fb3","title":"Are Credit Markets Still Local? Evidence from Bank Branch Closings","abstract":"This paper studies whether distance shapes credit allocation by estimating the impact of bank branch closings during the 2000s on local access to credit. To generate plausibly exogenous variation in the incidence of closings, I use an instrument based on within-county, tract-level variation in exposure to post-merger branch consolidation. Closings lead to a persistent decline in local small business lending. Annual originations fall by $453,000 after a closing, off a baseline of $4.7 million, and remain depressed for up to six years. The effects are very localized, dissipating within six miles, and are especially severe during the financial crisis.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Hoai-Luu Nguyen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170543","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cc5c6d7ddf506307","title":"Managing adverse selection: underinsurance versus underenrollment","abstract":"Adverse selection in insurance markets may lead some consumers to underinsure or too few consumers to purchase insurance relative to the socially optimal level. I study whether common government policy interventions can mitigate both underinsurance and underenrollment due to adverse selection. I establish conditions under which there exists a tradeoff in addressing underinsurance and underenrollment. I then estimate a model of the California ACA insurance exchange using consumer‐level data to quantify the welfare impact of risk adjustment and the individual mandate. I find (1) risk adjustment reduces underinsurance, but reduces enrollment and (2) the mandate increases enrollment, but increases underinsurance.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Evan Saltzman"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12372","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cc697ad6a0f028a0","title":"Long memory, fractional integration, and cross-sectional aggregation","abstract":"It is commonly argued that observed long memory in time series variables can result from cross-sectional aggregation of dynamic heterogeneous micro units. In this paper we demonstrate that the aggregation argument is consistent with a range of different long memory definitions. A simulation study shows that the cross-section dimension needs to be rather large to reflect the theoretical memory when using commonly used methods to estimate the memory parameter, especially when the theoretical memory is not too high. We show that the aggregated process will converge to a generalized fractional process in the limit. The coefficients of the moving average representation of the series decay hyperbolically but they differ from the coefficients arising from inversion of the fractional difference filter. It appears that the fractionally differenced series will have an autocorrelation function that still exhibits hyperbolic decay, but at a rate that ensures summability. The fractionally differenced series is thus I(0) but standard ARFIMA modeling is invalid when the long memory is caused by aggregation. It is shown that standard methods for estimating and selecting ARFIMA specifications fail in properly fitting the dynamics of the series.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Niels Haldrup","J. Eduardo Vera‐Valdés"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.03.001","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-cc6a9c7fa7185d25","title":"The macroeconomic impact of radical right populist parties in government","abstract":"The success of radical right populist parties in the last decades seems to rely on a combination of economically left-wing and culturally conservative attitudes. Moreover, many of these parties have established themselves as relevant actors in European democracies, entering government coalitions with more traditional conservative right-wing parties. Therefore, an interesting question emerges: what is the macroeconomic impact of this left-wing tendency on economic issues when these parties are in government? In this article we develop a Stackelberg game in a rational partisan theory model to study the macroeconomic effects of such coalitions on the expected values and the variability of inflation, output and government spending.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Montserrat Ferré","Carolina Manzano"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103471","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cc6ca2f8303b9470","title":"Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization","abstract":"We analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics, the 2016 Indian “demonetization.” This policy made 86% of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight, with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months. We present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes. We test the predictions of the model in the cross-section of Indian districts using several novel data sets including: the geographic distribution of demonetized and new notes for causal inference; night light activity and employment surveys to measure economic activity including in the informal sector; debit/credit cards and e-wallet transactions data; and banking data on deposit and credit growth. Districts experiencing more severe demonetization had relative reductions in economic activity, faster adoption of alternative payment technologies, and lower bank credit growth. The cross-sectional responses cumulate to a contraction in aggregate employment and night lights–based output due to the the cash shortage of at least 2 percentage points and of bank credit of 2 percentage points in 2016Q4 relative to their counterfactual paths, effects that dissipate over the next few months. Our analysis rejects monetary neutrality using a large-scale natural experiment, something that is still rare in the vast literature on the effects of monetary policy.","wordCount":212,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Gabriel Chodorow-Reich","Gita Gopinath","Prachi Mishra","Abhinav Narayanan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz027","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cc6d67574f6873f0","title":"Popularity shocks and political selection","abstract":"We observe that popularity shocks are crucial for electoral accountability beyond their effects on voters’ behaviors. By focusing on Brazilian politics, we show that the disclosure of audit reports on the (mis)use of federal funds by local administrators affects the type of candidates who stand for election. When the audit finds low levels of corruption, the parties supporting the incumbent select less-educated candidates. On the contrary, parties pick more-educated candidates when the audit reveals a high level of corruption. These effects are stronger in municipalities that have easier access to local media.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Francisco Cavalcanti","Gianmarco Daniele","Sergio Galletta"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.07.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cc73c55e55704c5c","title":"Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States","abstract":"We construct publicly available statistics on parents’ incomes and students’ earnings outcomes for each college in the United States using deidentified data from tax records. These statistics reveal that the degree of parental income segregation across colleges is very high, similar to that across neighborhoods. Differences in postcollege earnings between children from low- and high-income families are much smaller among students who attend the same college than across colleges. Colleges with the best earnings outcomes predominantly enroll students from high-income families, although a few mid-tier public colleges have both low parent income levels and high student earnings. Linking these income data to SAT and ACT scores, we simulate how changes in the allocation of students to colleges affect segregation and intergenerational mobility. Equalizing application, admission, and matriculation rates across parental income groups conditional on test scores would reduce segregation substantially, primarily by increasing the representation of middle-class students at more selective colleges. However, it would have little effect on the fraction of low-income students at elite private colleges because there are relatively few students from low-income families with sufficiently high SAT/ACT scores. Differences in parental income distributions across colleges could be eliminated by giving low- and middle-income students a sliding-scale preference in the application and admissions process similar to that implicitly given to legacy students at elite private colleges. Assuming that 80% of observational differences in students’ earnings conditional on test scores, race, and parental income are due to colleges’ causal effects—a strong assumption, but one consistent with prior work—such changes could reduce intergenerational income persistence among college students by about 25%. We conclude that changing how students are allocated to colleges could substantially reduce segregation and increase intergenerational mobility, even without changing colleges’ educational programs.","wordCount":286,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Raj Chetty","John N. Friedman","Emmanuel Saez","Nicholas Turner","Danny Yagan"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cc81658ef4010f80","title":"Sequential persuasion","abstract":"This paper studies sequential Bayesian persuasion games with multiple senders. We provide a tractable characterization of equilibrium outcomes. We apply the model to study how the structure of consultations affects information revelation. Adding a sender who moves first cannot reduce informativeness in equilibrium and results in a more informative equilibrium in the case of two states. Moreover, with the exception of the first sender, it is without loss of generality to let each sender move only once. Sequential persuasion cannot generate a more informative equilibrium than simultaneous persuasion and is always less informative when there are only two states.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Fei Li","Peter Norman"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3474","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-cc834ac0f90b7537","title":"Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain","abstract":"The results support the hypothesis that (most) wages respond to local current unemployment. In several OECD countries employer federations and unions fix skill-specific wage floors for all workers in an industry . One view of those “explicit” contracts argues that the prevailing wage structure reflects the labor market conditions back at the time when those contracts were bargained, with little space for renegotiation. An alternative view stresses that only workers close to the minima are affected by wage floors and that the wage structure reacts to current labor market conditions. We disentangle between those hypotheses by testing whether wages react more to local contemporaneous unemployment or unemployment at the time of contract renewal in Italy and Spain. The results suggest that most wages in the metalworking industry adjusted to the cycle between 2005 and 2013, and that rigidity generated by lack of renegotiation is confined to wages close to the floors (about 12-15% of the total).","wordCount":156,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Effrosyni Adamopoulou","Ernesto Villanueva"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102147","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cc8407ee8382d15f","title":"Improving smallholder agriculture via video-based group extension","abstract":"Providing agricultural advice at scale poses operational challenges. Technology may help if repeating content reinforces learning for recipients and thus improves adoption, but risks reducing efficacy given limited customization and human interaction. We tested videos shared with female farmers in India as a supplement to standard human-provided extension services promoting a climate-smart practice, System Rice Intensification. The average treatment effects are large but imprecise because of non-normally distributed outcomes, specifically fat right tails. Weighted quantile regressions show that the imprecision in estimating an average treatment effect comes from farmers with output or yields in the upper quantiles. Both quantile regressions of the 25% and 50% quantiles and a Bayesian hierarchical model (robust to several priors) reveal positive treatment effects, and two subtreatments, one that reinforces information on labor costs from adoption and a second that presents role models to motivate adoption, lead to even higher estimated treatment effects on output.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Tushi Baul","Dean Karlan","Kentaro Toyama","Kathryn Vasilaky"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103267","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cc89b490861f3d90","title":"Income Inequality in Latin America: A Factor Component Analysis","abstract":"The decline in inequality observed in most Latin American countries after 2002 was surprisingly good news, particularly given that most developed countries were experiencing a rise in inequality at that time. Various arguments have been put forward to explain this decline, but there is still no consensus on the most plausible explanation. This article contributes to the ongoing discussion by performing inequality decompositions by factor components. We estimate the importance of each source of income in explaining the observed decline in income inequality between 2002 and 2011 in five Latin American countries. Specifically, we explore the role of the process of formalization that has taken place in regional labor markets, separating formal and informal wages and considering self‐employment incomes. In the five countries studied here informal wages and self‐employment income contributed to decreasing inequality. Formal sector wages, on the other hand, fostered inequality in all countries except Bolivia.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Verónica Amarante"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12236","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cc9bb9fb42ba5b81","title":"Board gender diversity and responsible banking during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"This study investigates whether board gender diversity matters in banks' initial responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in supporting their customers, communities and governments. We construct a unique and comprehensive COVID-19 Bank Response Measure (C19BRM) by compiling a novel hand-collected dataset on supportive measures announced by US and European banks during the first wave of the pandemic. We find that banks with higher board representation of women directors supported their customers and communities more. Our findings also reveal that banks with more women on the boards increased their charity and donations. Our results are robust to the potential self-selection bias of women choosing to join boards of more responsible banks, the omitted variables bias, and alternative measures of gender diversity.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Alper Kara","Aziidah Nanteza","Aydin Ozkan","Yılmaz Yıldız"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102213","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ccafb1d6b7ddca88","title":"Carbon pricing and power sector decarbonization: Evidence from the UK","abstract":"Decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation is crucial to tackle climate change. Empirically, however, little is known about the effectiveness of existing economic instruments in the power sector. This paper examines the impact of the UK Carbon Price Support (CPS), a carbon tax implemented in the UK power sector in 2013. Relative to a synthetic control unit built from other European countries, I find that emissions from the UK power sector declined by 20 to 26 percent per year on average between 2013 and 2017. The tax operated via three mechanisms: a decrease in emissions at the intensive margin; the closure of some high-emission plants at the extensive margin; and a higher probability of closure for plants already at risk due to European air quality regulations.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Marion Leroutier"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102580","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ccb39fa9ba489f22","title":"Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound","abstract":"Standard rational expectations models with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint either admit no solutions (incoherence) or multiple solutions (incompleteness). This paper shows that deviations from full-information rational expectations mitigate concerns about incoherence and incompleteness. Models with no rational expectations equilibria admit self-confirming equilibria involving the use of simple mis-specified forecasting models. Completeness and coherence are restored if expectations are adaptive or if agents are less forward-looking due to some information or behavioral friction. In the case of incompleteness, the E-stability criterion selects an equilibrium.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Guido Ascari","Sophocles Mavroeidis","Nigel McClung"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105745","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ccb92324eb16bf1b","title":"Wholesale Pricing with Asymmetric Information About the Quality of a Private Label","abstract":"This article derives the optimal wholesale tariff that is proposed by the monopolistic manufacturer of a branded product to a monopolistic retailer if the retailer also sells a private label whose quality is unobserved by the brand manufacturer. The focus is on market-share contracts where the manufacturer controls the quantities of both products. To learn the quality of the private label and diminish the retailer’s information rent, it distorts the quantity of the branded product downwards and that of the private label upwards. The manufacturer can control the quantity of the private label if it combines an excess payment with an end-of-year repayment.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Johannes Paha"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09983-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ccbfd4a90b4675ef","title":"Early individual stakeholders, first venture capital investment, and exit in the UK startup ecosystem","abstract":"We create a novel, comprehensive dataset of UK-based startups with extensive information on ownership, control, and valuation. Our database provides unique descriptive evidence about the relevance of individual stakeholders in startups, particularly before the entry of venture capital institutional investors. We compare the influence of two comparable characteristics of various groups of pre-institutional individual stakeholders: size and experience. We show that the quantity as well as the experience, of founders, directors, and other individual investors correlate with the startup’s type of, and value at, exit. Success results are very different across types of diversity: functional diversity appears to have a positive relationship with success whereas that of demographic diversity is negative.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Albert Banal‐Estañol","Inés Macho‐Stadler","Jonás Nieto-Postigo","David Pérez‐Castrillo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102420","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ccbfe1a0cfd13af4","title":"An explainable attention network for fraud detection in claims management","abstract":"Insurance companies must manage millions of claims per year. While most of these are not fraudulent, those that are nevertheless cost insurance companies and those they insure vast amounts of money. The ultimate goal is to develop a predictive model that can single out fraudulent claims and pay out non-fraudulent ones automatically. Health care claims have a peculiar data structure, comprising inputs of varying length and variables with a large number of categories. Both issues are challenging for traditional econometric methods. We develop a deep learning model that can handle these challenges by adapting methods from text classification. Using a large dataset from a private health insurer in Germany, we show that the model we propose outperforms a conventional machine learning model. With the rise of digitalization, unstructured data with characteristics similar to ours will become increasingly common in applied research, and methods to deal with such data will be needed.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Helmut Farbmacher","Leander Löw","Martin Spindler"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.05.021","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ccc37fa586480eef","title":"Roads, Railroads, and Decentralization of Chinese Cities","abstract":"We investigate how urban railroad and highway configurations have influenced urban form in Chinese cities since 1990. Each radial highway displaces 4% of central city population to surrounding regions, and ring roads displace about an additional 20%, with stronger effects in the richer coastal and central regions. Each radial railroad reduces central city industrial GDP by about 20%, with ring roads displacing an additional 50%. We provide evidence that radial highways decentralize service sector activity, radial railroads decentralize industrial activity, and ring roads decentralize both. Historical transportation infrastructure provides identifying variation in more recent measures of infrastructure.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Nathaniel Brandt Baum-Snow","Loren Brandt","J. Vernon Henderson","Matthew A. Turner","Qinghua Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00660","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ccc3fbb034177cf6","title":"Family Types and Intimate Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective","abstract":"This paper examines the long-term determinants of intimate partner violence (IPV) by analyzing its relationship with traditional family structures: stem families in which one child stays in the parental household and nuclear families in which all children leave the household upon marriage. My hypothesis is that coresidence with a mother-in-law increases a wife's contribution to nondomestic work, which may decrease the level of violence. I find that areas where stem families were socially predominant in the past currently have a lower IPV rate, and use differences in inheritance laws in medieval times as an instrument for the different family types.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Ana Tur-Prats"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00784","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ccd9e66eb5a02c28","title":"Worker reallocation, firm innovation, and Chinese import competition","abstract":"While recent work has documented a nexus between international trade and firm innovation, the underlying mechanisms explaining firms’ innovation in response to import competition are, thus far, poorly understood. To identify the mechanism of labor adjustments and its economic relevance, we use longitudinal linked employer–employee data from Denmark (1995–2012). We first show that import competition triggers a significant increase in the share of R&D workers at the firm level. The majority of the increase in the share of R&D workers is explained by between-firm, not within-firm, worker reallocation. The significance of this reallocation becomes evident when we show that innovation improvements are observed only among firms that experience a large increase in the share of R&D workers, especially if this increase is achieved through between-firm worker reallocation. We then extend our analysis to Portugal where the labor market is more rigid and find contrasting yet consistent results: labor reallocation occurs only within firms and it does not result in increased innovation.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Grace Weishi Gu","Samreen Malik","Dario Pozzoli","Vera Rocha"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103951","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cceab8764056b3ee","title":"Credit Supply and the Housing Boom","abstract":"An increase in credit supply driven by looser lending constraints in the mortgage market is the key force behind four empirical features of the housing boom before the Great Recession: the unprecedented rise in home prices, the surge in household debt, the stability of debt relative to house values, and the fall in mortgage rates. These facts are more difficult to reconcile with the popular view that attributes the housing boom only to looser borrowing constraints associated with lower collateral requirements, because they shift the demand for credit.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Alejandro Justiniano","Giorgio E. Primiceri","Andrea Tambalotti"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701440","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ccec4a64b391fe02","title":"Fair innings? The utilitarian and prioritarian value of risk reduction over a whole lifetime","abstract":"The social value of risk reduction (SVRR) is the marginal social value of reducing an individual's fatality risk, as measured by some social welfare function (SWF). This Article investigates SVRR, using a lifetime utility model in which individuals are differentiated by age, lifetime income profile, and lifetime risk profile. We consider both the utilitarian SWF and a \"prioritarian\" SWF, which applies a strictly increasing and strictly concave transformation to individual utility. We show that the prioritarian SVRR provides a rigorous basis in economic theory for the \"fair innings\" concept, proposed in the public health literature: as between an older individual and a similarly situated younger individual (one with the same income and risk profile), a risk reduction for the younger individual is accorded greater social weight even if the gains to expected lifetime utility are equal. The comparative statics of prioritarian and utilitarian SVRRs with respect to age, and to (past, present, and future) income and baseline survival probability, are significantly different from the conventional value per statistical life (VSL). Our empirical simulation based upon the U.S. population survival curve and income distribution shows that prioritarian SVRRs with a moderate degree of concavity in the transformation function conform to widely held views regarding lifesaving policies: the young should take priority but income should make no difference.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Matthew D. Adler","Maddalena Ferranna","James K. Hammitt","Nicolas Treich"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102412","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ccf7d38a2d81d106","title":"Examining volatility dynamics, spillovers and government water recovery in Murray-Darling Basin water markets","abstract":"Although participation in water markets is widespread among irrigators in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia, there has been a lack of study on the dynamics of water markets, in particular price and volume dynamics, volatility and spillovers. Questions have also been raised regarding the impact on markets from governments buying back permanent water from consumptive use to return to environmental use. VARX-BEKK-GARCH time-series regression was used to model the water market dynamics of monthly permanent and temporary water market trade from 1997 to 2017 in one of the largest water markets in the Murray-Darling Basin, the Goulburn-Murray Irrigation District. Results suggest that the temporary market was more volatile than the permanent market, while persistency in volatility only exists in permanent markets. Unidirectional transmission spillovers exists in both markets from prices to volumes. The main drivers of temporary water prices were water scarcity related, while permanent prices were most significantly influenced by previous permanent water prices and current temporary water market prices. A statistically significant negative impact on temporary volume-traded from government water recovery (e.g. a 1% increase in water recovery resulted in a 0.14% reduction in water volume-traded) was found, but no significant impact from government recovery was found on temporary water prices, nor on permanent market prices and volumes. However, government water recovery increased the volatility of temporary market prices and volumes, signaling potential increased issues of risk and uncertainty for irrigators engaging in temporary water markets.","wordCount":238,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Alec Zuo","Feng Qiu","Sarah Ann Wheeler"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2019.101113","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cd02bb4f3f8a3927","title":"Energy import costs in a flexible input-output price model","abstract":"A fundamental assumption of the input-output (IO) model is a fixed relationship between interindustry flows. In the price version of the model, the assumption of fixed-coefficients prevents the optimal mix of inputs being adjusted when relative prices change. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the role of energy import prices in the IO price model without the usual non-substitution technology inherent to the input-output structure. The analysis includes alternative substitution possibilities for the elements that comprise the sectoral costs, which are empirically implemented from an IO dataset. The various substitution scenarios are defined by three different cost structures: the Leontief, Cobb-Douglas and Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) functions. The empirical application to the Catalan economy illustrates the relevance of the flexibility option used for explaining the quantitative influence of energy import prices on domestic prices. Adapting the traditional input-output model to include factor substitution makes it possible to overcome the rigidity in transmitting price impacts, and illustrates a range of possible effects.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["María Llop"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2019.101130","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cd0b7fbee164b99e","title":"Money growth and inflation in the Euro Area, UK, and USA: measurement issues and recent results","abstract":"This paper identifies several ways in which “measurement matters” in detecting quantity-theoretic linkages between money growth and inflation in recent data from the Euro Area, United Kingdom, and USA. Elaborating on the “Barnett critique,” it uses Divisia aggregates in place of their simple-sum counterparts to gauge the effects that monetary expansion or contraction is having on inflationary pressures. It also uses one-sided time series filtering techniques to track, in real time, slowly shifting trends in velocity and real economic growth that would otherwise weaken the statistical money growth-inflation relationship. Finally, it documents how measures of inflation based on GDP were distorted severely, especially in the EA and UK, during the 2020 economic closures. Using measures based on consumption instead, estimates from the P-star model confirm that changes in money growth have strong predictive power for subsequent movements in inflation.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Peter N. Ireland"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000282","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cd0fecfc2bfb1ae6","title":"Vocational training for female job returners - Effects on employment, earnings and job quality","abstract":"This paper studies how training vouchers increase the employment prospects of women with interrupted employment histories. Using the population of female job returners who receive a training voucher to participate in training programs and a randomly selected control group from German administrative data, I analyze the effectiveness of training on various labor market outcomes. The analysis reveals that the receipt of a training voucher translates into substantial gains in employment and earnings. It reduces the gap between pre- and post-interruption earnings by as much as 77%. Moreover, training vouchers improve job quality, and increases job stability. Low skilled women benefit most.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Annabelle Doerr"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102139","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cd20d20c770ba6fc","title":"The Economic Effects of Social Networks: Evidence from the Housing Market","abstract":"We show how data from online social networking services can help researchers better understand the effects of social interactions on economic decision making. We combine anonymized data from Facebook, the largest online social network, with housing transaction data and explore both the structure and the effects of social networks. Individuals whose geographically distant friends experienced larger recent house price increases are more likely to transition from renting to owning. They also buy larger houses and pay more for a given house. Survey data show that these relationships are driven by the effects of social interactions on individuals’ housing market expectations.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Michael Bailey","Ruiqing Cao","Theresa Kuchler","Johannes Stroebel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700073","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cd242805e1fc9e6a","title":"The 2023 Merger Guidelines and The Role of Economics","abstract":"Relying heavily on legal analysis, the 2023 Merger Guidelines argue for a fundamental shift in antitrust enforcement that places more emphasis on protecting competitors and less on protecting the beneficiaries of competition. It is up to courts, not economists, to ascertain whether this interpretation of antitrust law is correct. But economists can and should analyze the likely economic effects. Evidence that antitrust enforcement has permitted some markets to be overly concentrated justifies the tightening of horizontal merger enforcement that is signaled by these guidelines. Evaluating the elimination of double marginalization from vertical mergers as a part of an efficiency defense rather than as a primary economic effect reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the economics of vertical mergers. At a minimum, these guidelines will further damage the reputation of the DOJ and FTC among competition policy enforcers in other countries. A potentially more serious cost will be if foreign competition authorities use these guidelines to justify enforcing their own laws to protect inefficient domestic firms against foreign competition.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michael A. Salinger"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09957-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cd3d8522b6b95597","title":"The economic advantages of chain organization","abstract":"This article considers the rapid spread of chain firms in many industries. The conventional explanation is that chains generate economies of scale in costs. Alternatively, the structure of chains may enhance demand by helping firms develop reputations, among other reasons. I quantify the value of these explanations empirically with a large, detailed data set on the hotel industry, combining a reduced‐form analysis of revenues with a structural estimation of firm costs. Revenue analysis shows substantial evidence of a large chain premium. Cost estimation shows that after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity, chain‐affiliated firms receive no cost advantage relative to independent firms.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Brett Hollenbeck"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12214","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cd469b66d619d5d9","title":"False advertising","abstract":"There is widespread evidence that some firms use false advertising to overstate the value of their products. We consider a model in which a policy maker can punish such false claims. We characterize an equilibrium where false advertising actively influences rational buyers and analyze the effects of policy under different welfare objectives. We establish precise conditions where policy optimally permits a positive level of false advertising and show how these conditions vary intuitively with demand and market parameters. We also consider the implications for product investment and industry self‐regulation and connect our results to the literature on demand curvature.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Andrew Rhodes","Chris M. Wilson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12228","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cd5559c8359bc831","title":"The equitable top trading cycles mechanism for school choice","abstract":"A particular adaptation of Gale's top trading cycles (TTC) procedure applied to school choice, the so‐called TTC mechanism, has attracted much attention both in theory and practice due to its superior efficiency and incentive features. We discuss and introduce alternative adaptations of Gale's original procedure that can offer improvements over TTC in terms of equity, along with various other distributional considerations. Instead of giving all the trading power to those students with the highest priority for a school, we argue for the distribution of the trading rights of all slots of each school: This allows them to trade in a thick market where additional constraints can be accommodated by choosing an appropriate pointing rule. We propose a particular mechanism of this kind, the equitable top trading cycle (ETTC) mechanism, which is also Pareto efficient and group strategy‐proof just like TTC and eliminates avoidable justified envy situations. ETTC generates significantly fewer justified envy situations than TTC both in simulations and the lab.","wordCount":161,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Rustamdjan Hakimov","Onur Kesten"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12335","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cd729687a6eaaf5e","title":"A Macroeconomic Model of Structural Monetary Policy in China","abstract":"China's increasing use of structural monetary policy raises questions about its optimal role. This study investigates when and how SMP should be deployed using a multisector DSGE model incorporating distinct financing conditions and intermediary constraints for SOEs and POEs. We find that credit tightening disproportionately raises POE credit spreads, which conventional policy struggles to correct. Credit shocks significantly amplify resource misallocation and necessitate active SMP to address these specific distortions, stabilize the economy, and mitigate associated welfare losses. Our findings indicate that the justification for SMP is strongest when credit shocks significantly interact with underlying financial asymmetries between sectors.","wordCount":99,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Feng Dong","Dongzhou Mei","Haoning Sun"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.70013","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cd7db1cd1ac6c4da","title":"Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses","abstract":"Using the intuition that financial markets transfer risks in business time, “market microstructure invariance” is defined as the hypotheses that the distributions of risk transfers (“bets”) and transaction costs are constant across assets when measured per unit of business time. The invariance hypotheses imply that bet size and transaction costs have specific, empirically testable relationships to observable dollar volume and volatility. Portfolio transitions can be viewed as natural experiments for measuring transaction costs, and individual orders can be treated as proxies for bets. Empirical tests based on a data set of 400, 000+ portfolio transition orders support the invariance hypotheses. The constants calibrated from structural estimation imply specific predictions for the arrival rate of bets (“market velocity”), the distribution of bet sizes, and transaction costs.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Albert S. Kyle","Anna A. Obizhaeva"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta10486","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cd85db42d253e125","title":"The Effect of the Sectoral Composition of Economic Growth on Rural and Urban Poverty","abstract":"We examine the relationship between the sectoral composition of economic growth and the rural‐urban composition of poverty. To this end, we use a cross‐country panel dataset consisting of 146 rural and urban poverty “spells” for 70 low‐ and middle‐income countries. We find that rural (urban) poverty is highly responsive to agricultural (non‐agricultural) productivity growth. The effect of agricultural productivity growth on rural poverty is particularly strong for countries with little dependence on natural resources. We also find that growth in the share of employment in the non‐agricultural sector (i.e. structural transformation) reduces rural poverty, most notably for countries at a low initial level of development. These findings are robust to changes in key assumptions, including using alternative poverty lines. Finally, we use our estimates to examine the past contribution of different sources of economic growth to rural and urban poverty reduction across regions.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Rui Benfica","Heath Henderson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12462","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cd882bbc8fd5086c","title":"The sources of value creation in acquisitions of intangible assets","abstract":"We document that acquirer announcement returns and post-M&A performance rise with a target's proportion of intangible assets. This shareholder wealth creation is associated with profitable acquirers purchasing complementary intangible assets and promising growth options from less profitable targets. Purchase prices are lower when targets face financial constraints limiting their ability to pursue promising investment opportunities. Analyzing acquisitions across different classes of intangible assets and matching successful with failed bids for targets with intangible assets support our main findings and suggest that these results are robust to endogeneity concerns. We conclude that target intangible assets provide important sources of M&A value creation.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Ronald W. Masulis","Syed Walid Reza","Rong Guo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106879","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cd98370f103f6061","title":"Why Is Europe More Equal than the United States?","abstract":"This article combines all available data to produce pretax and post-tax income inequality series in 26 European countries from 1980 to 2017. Our estimates are consistent with macroeconomic growth and comparable with US distributional national accounts. Inequality grew in nearly all European countries, but much less than in the US. Contrary to a widespread view, we demonstrate that Europe’s lower inequality levels cannot be explained by more equalizing tax and transfer systems. After accounting for indirect taxes and in-kind transfers, the US redistributes a greater share of national income to low-income groups than any European country. “Predistribution,” not “redistribution,” explains why Europe is less unequal than the United States.","wordCount":109,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Thomas Blanchet","Lucas Chancel","Amory Gethin"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20200703","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-cd9fffbff406c497","title":"Does it take extra skills to work in a large city?","abstract":"This paper explores the relationship between job complexity and agglomeration. For this, we assess whether vacancies in larger cities require more skills than vacancies for similar jobs elsewhere. The use of online job vacancy data allows us to empirically analyse the spatial variation in skill requirements within occupations. Results show that jobs in dense areas require extra skills compared to similar jobs in sparsely populated areas. Moreover, we show that jobs in large cities require a more diverse skill set. This indicates that urban jobs are more complex. These findings help explain the productivity premium of cities and spatial inequalities between urban and rural labour markets.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Harm-Jan Rouwendal","Sierdjan Koster"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104094","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cdb694929322f2e8","title":"The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on the Health and Labor Supply of Older Adults: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study","abstract":"Older adults are at elevated risk of reducing labor supply due to poor health, partly because of high rates of symptoms that may be alleviated by medical marijuana. Yet, surprisingly little is known about how this group responds to medical marijuana laws (MMLs). We quantify the effects of state medical marijuana laws on the health and labor supply of adults age 51 and older, focusing on the 55 percent with one or more medical conditions with symptoms that may respond to medical marijuana. We use longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study to estimate event study and differences-in-differences regression models. Three principle findings emerge from our analysis. First, active state medical marijuana laws lead to lower pain and better self-assessed health among older adults. Second, state medical marijuana laws lead to increases in older adult labor supply, with effects concentrated on the intensive margin. Third, the effects of MMLs are largest among older adults with a health condition that would qualify for legal medical marijuana use under current state laws. Findings highlight the role of health policy in supporting work among older adults and the importance of including older adults in assessments of state medical marijuana laws.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Lauren Hersch Nicholas","Johanna Catherine Maclean"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22122","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cdcc8fb23ede2246","title":"International labor market competition and wives’ labor supply responses","abstract":"We examine how the 2004 European Union (EU) enlargement to Eastern European countries affected the employment, earnings and share of home production among workers employed in the Building and Construction industry and their wives. We use licensing requirements to divide workers into two groups who are more and less exposed to labor market competition. We find that exposed workers experience a fall in labor earnings relative to sheltered workers after the EU enlargement. Increased wife labor supply and earnings compensate around one third of the loss. We do not find a similar change in the division of labor in home production measured by the share of parental leave. Having small children does not constrain the labor market responses of the wives.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Pål Schøne","Marte Strøm"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.101983","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cdcf53881b7a5fc6","title":"2017 klein lecture: The science of using science: Toward an understanding of the threats to scalability","abstract":"Policymakers are increasingly facing the challenge of scaling empirical insights. This study provides a theoretical lens into the science of how to use science. Through a simple model, we highlight three elements of the scale‐up problem: (1) when does evidence become actionable; (2) properties of the population; and (3) properties of the situation. Until these three areas are fully understood, the threats to scalability will render any scaling exercise as particularly vulnerable. Accordingly, our work represents a call for more policy‐based evidence, whereby the nature and extent of the various threats to scalability are explored in the original research program.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Omar Al‐Ubaydli","John A. List","Dana Suskind"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12476","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cdddd7ba30fc954c","title":"Separation of power and expertise: Evidence of the tyranny of experts in Sweden's COVID‐19 responses","abstract":"Whereas most countries in the COVID-19 pandemic imposed shutdowns and curfews to mitigate the contagion, Sweden uniquely pursued a more voluntarist approach. In this article, our interest is primarily on how and why Sweden's approach to the pandemic was so unique. There are two parts to this research question: (1) why did virtually all other nations follow a radical lockdown protocol despite limited evidence to its effectiveness and (2) why did Sweden not follow this same protocol despite strong political pressures? The answers to these questions lie within typical government technocracy versus Sweden's constitutional separation of government and technocracy. We review the history of the responses to the pandemic and show how the \"tyranny of experts\" was severe within the typical technocratic policy response, and attenuated in Sweden's. Thus, the recent pandemic offers empirical evidence and insights regarding the role of Hayekian knowledge problems in engendering a technocratic \"tyranny of experts\" and how such effects can be structurally mitigated.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Per L. Bylund","Mark D. Packard"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12493","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cdee20d3510e2496","title":"On the (nonmonotonic) relation between economic growth and finance","abstract":"We analyze the simplest possible model of endogenous growth to account for the role of financial development. In our setting, financial development affects productivity and determines the amount of resources subtracted to capital investment. We show that under very general assumptions, the relation between economic growth and financial depth is nonmonotonic, and eventually bell-shaped. We empirically assess our results in a framework that allows to distinguish between long-run and short-run effects. We establish a cointegrating relation and derive the long-run elasticities of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) with respect to employment, the physical capital stock, and financial depth–relying on linear as well as nonlinear models for the finance-growth nexus. We employ the results of the first step estimation to specify an error–correction model and find that there is strong evidence for a nonlinear relationship between financial depth and per capita GDP, consistently with what was predicted by our theoretical model.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Alberto Bucci","Simone Marsiglio","Catherine Prettner"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000305","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ce026b89bdc5688f","title":"Social Networks and Labor Markets: How Strong Ties Relate to Job Finding on Facebook’s Social Network","abstract":"Social networks are important for finding jobs, but which ties are most useful? Granovetter has suggested that “weak ties” are more valuable than “strong ties,” since strong ties have redundant information, while weak ties have new information. Using 6 million Facebook users’ data, we find evidence for the opposite. We proxy for job help by identifying people who eventually work with a pre-existing friend. Using objective tie strength measures and our job help proxy, we find that most people are helped through one of their numerous weak ties but a single stronger tie is significantly more valuable at the margin.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Laura Gee","Jason Jones","Moira Burke"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686225","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ce10e34b2e2d7f90","title":"Measuring Geopolitical Risk","abstract":"We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of geopolitical risk. Investment drops more in industries that are exposed to aggregate geopolitical risk. Higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with lower firm-level investment.","wordCount":112,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Dario Caldara","Matteo Iacoviello"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ce117e7f7a97b6fa","title":"Can Geospatial Data Improve House Price Indexes? A Hedonic Imputation Approach with Splines","abstract":"Determining how and when to use geospatial data (i.e. longitudes and latitudes for each house) is probably the most pressing open question in the house price index literature. This issue is particularly timely for national statistical institutes (NSIs) in the European Union, which are now required by Eurostat to produce official house price indexes. Our solution combines the hedonic imputation method with a flexible hedonic model that captures geospatial data using a non‐parametric spline surface. For Sydney, Australia, we find that the extra precision provided by geospatial data as compared with postcode dummies has only a marginal impact on the resulting hedonic price index. This is good news for resource‐stretched NSIs. At least for Sydney, postcodes seem to be sufficient to control for locational effects in a hedonic house price index.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Robert Hill","Michael Scholz"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12303","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ce1d02666116214d","title":"Affirmative Action and Racial Segregation","abstract":"Prior research suggests that statewide affirmative action bans reduce minority enrollment at selective colleges while leaving the overall college enrollment of minorities unchanged. However, the effect of these bans on across-college racial segregation has not yet been estimated. This effect is theoretically ambiguous because of a U-shaped relationship across colleges between minority enrollment and college selectivity. This paper uses variation in the timing of affirmative action bans across states to estimate their effects on racial segregation as measured by standard exposure and dissimilarity indexes, finding that affirmative action bans increased segregation across colleges in some cases but reduced it in others. In particular, early affirmative action bans in states with highly selective public universities appear to be associated with less segregation, whereas more recent affirmative action bans appear to be associated with more segregation.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Peter Hinrichs"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706930","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ce1e82205f156a37","title":"Renegotiations and Renewals of Public Contracts","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of renegotiations on contract renewals. Using an original dataset of procurement contracts in the French car park sector, we show that there exists an optimal level of renegotiations that positively affects the probability of renewing a contract with the same partner. This result holds only when public authorities have discretionary power during the awarding procedure. Such findings suggest that what is usually interpreted as a sign of weakness – frequent renegotiations – might well be good news that indicates that the contracting parties can make contracts adaptable over time.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jean Beuve","Stéphane Saussier"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09819-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ce2da6fc6556d41f","title":"The Handmade Effect: A Model of Conscious Shopping in an Industrialised Economy","abstract":"Although online marketplaces for handmade products persist, little theoretical research has been undertaken to explain why firms choose a handmade strategy. In this paper, I develop a model that can explain the persistence through a handmade effect on the consumer side. I show that when consumers are willing to pay a sufficiently high handmade premium, the firm chooses production by hand over superior machine production. When the firm is part of a duopoly, the existence of consumers who care about the conditions under which a product is manufactured can explain the firms’ specialisation and, thus, the observed co-existence of handmade and machine-made products in the economy. Such specialisation is efficient, and can be robust to collusion. The presence of shoppers who are uncertain about the appropriate behaviour may enable the monopolist to use a handmade strategy to signal a social norm of conscious consumption.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jasmin Droege"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Z","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09844-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ce2fff3a19c38ce3","title":"A model of retail banking and the deposits channel of monetary policy","abstract":"We develop a dynamic, search-theoretic model of bank deposits markets where relationships are bilateral, the demand for liquid assets is microfounded, and consumers are privately informed about their liquidity needs. As the policy rate rises, the deposit spread widens, and aggregate deposits shrink, in accordance with the deposits channel documented in Drechsler et al. (2017). The deposit outflow originates from consumers in the lower percentiles of the distribution of deposits. As banks become more informed about consumers’ types (e.g., through big data), their market power increases but transmission weakens. As entry costs are reduced (e.g., through online banking), market power shrinks and transmission weakens.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Michael Choi","Guillaume Rocheteau"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.06.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ce4055cb674aeed0","title":"Optimal disclosure of information to privately informed agents","abstract":"We study information design with multiple privately informed agents who interact in a game. Each agent's utility is linear in a real‐valued state. We show that there always exists an optimal mechanism that is laminar partitional and bound its “complexity.” For each type profile, such a mechanism partitions the state space and recommends the same action profile within a partition element. Furthermore, the convex hulls of any two partition elements are such that either one contains the other or they have an empty intersection. We highlight the value of screening: the ratio of the optimal and the best payoff without screening can be equal to the number of types. Along the way, we shed light on the solutions to optimization problems over distributions subject to a mean‐preserving contraction constraint and additional side‐constraints, which might be of independent interest.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Ozan Candogan","Philipp Strack"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te5173","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ce4a0649bc6b023c","title":"Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution","abstract":"We propose a novel two-agent New Keynesian model to study the interaction of fiscal policy and household heterogeneity in a tractable environment. Workers can save in bonds subject to portfolio adjustment costs; firm ownership is concentrated among capitalists who do not supply labor. The model is consistent with micro data on empirical intertemporal marginal propensities to consume, and it avoids implausible profit income effects on labor supply. Relative to the traditional two-agent model, these features imply, respectively, a lower sensitivity of consumption to the composition of public financing; and smaller fiscal multipliers alongside pronounced redistributive effects.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Cristiano Cantore","Lukas B. Freund"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.01.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ce72b17469512b0b","title":"Knowledge Spillovers, Competition and Innovation Success","abstract":"We study the relationship between a patent‐based measure of knowledge spillovers that calculates technological proximity based on technologically relevant firms and innovation success. We find – for a representative sample of Swiss firms – that knowledge spillovers have a positive and significant association with the commercial success of innovative products. The paper shows the importance of market conditions for the relationship of spillovers with innovation performance: It is only positive and significant in markets with a medium number of competitors in the main product market, but not in monopolistic or polypolistic market structures.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Spyros Arvanitis","Florian Seliger","Martin Woerter"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12365","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ce9089799eaef558","title":"Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data to Better Measure Income: Implications for Poverty, Program Effectiveness, and Holes in the Safety Net","abstract":"We examine the consequences of survey underreporting of transfer programs for prototypical analyses of low-income populations. We link administrative data for four transfer programs to the CPS to correct its severe understatement of transfer dollars received. Using survey data sharply understates the income of poor households, distorts our understanding of program targeting, and greatly understates the effects of anti-poverty programs. Using the combined data, the poverty-reducing effect of all programs together is nearly doubled. The effect of housing assistance is tripled. Correcting survey error often reduces the share of single mothers falling through the safety net by one-half or more.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Bruce Meyer","Nikolas Mittag"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170478","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ce9bfb68861737fe","title":"Pro-rata vs User-centric in the music streaming industry","abstract":"An endogenous model, which allows the artists to determine the streaming times strategically, is used to compare two remuneration rules in the music streaming industry: Pro-rata (P rule) and User-centric (U rule). The two judgement criteria are 1. efficiency, in terms of no dominance on quality profile. 2. egalitarian fairness, in terms of the lowest royalty among all artists. Our main result is that P rule always outperforms U rule in efficiency and fairness when the superstar’s marginal cost is the lowest. This means that the transition from P rule to U rule can not only enlarge the existing royalty gap but also decrease the efficiency of the music streaming industry.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Xiaochang Lei"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111111","license":"cc-by-sa"},{"id":"public-cea5efffeb78a83d","title":"Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?","abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between public debt expansion and economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. We contribute theoretically by developing tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors. In the empirical application, using data on a sample of forty countries over the 1965–2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative effects of public debt buildup on output growth.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Alexander Chudík","Kamiar Mohaddes","M. Hashem Pesaran","Mehdi Raissi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00593","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cea9a824d1063b06","title":"Price-Parity Clauses for Hotel Room Booking: Empirical Evidence from Regulatory Change","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of most-favored-nation (MFN) clauses on retail prices, taking advantage of two natural experiments that changed vertical contracting between hotels and major digital platforms. First, a broad EU intervention narrowed the breadth of obligations under price-parity clauses between hotels and major online travel agencies (OTAs). Second, France and Germany went further and eliminated all price-parity agreements for top OTAs. Using transaction data from hotel chains, we find that direct sales by hotels to customers became relatively cheaper than OTA sales for midlevel and luxury hotels. Comparisons with hotel pricing outside the European Union confirm the relative reduction in prices for midlevel and luxury hotels and an opposite pattern for budget hotels. Overall, regulating MFN clauses resulted in significantly cheaper direct-channel sales in two of three hotel types. Primary effects come from the narrow price-parity intervention and not from complete elimination of MFN clauses.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Séan Ennis","Marc Ivaldi","Vicente Lagos"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/723456","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ceb3de4d45300def","title":"Intellectual capital and firm performance: evidence from Indian banking sector","abstract":"In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the entire Indian banking industry was paralysed and their performance was shattered by the unfolding of enormous cases of Non-performing Assets (NPA). The study estimates the operating efficiency of 40 Indian banks for 5 years (2011–15) as a proxy of performance measure using the output-oriented DEA-BCC model. We find that nearly 62% of the state-owned banks and 47% of the private banks are inefficient indicating that the inefficient banks need to reduce their inputs or improve their output to become efficient. The study further investigates the relationship between intellectual capital (IC) and bank performance using a truncated regression model. The regression results show that out of the three components of intellectual capital, only human capital efficiency is positively and significantly associated with operational efficiency while structural capital and finance capital have a negative impact on the efficiency of banks. The study concludes that to achieve competitive edge banks should invest in their human capital. The results are robust in the case of financial variables taken as a proxy for performance.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Suryanarayan Mohapatra","Sangram Keshari Jena","Amarnath Mitra","Aviral Kumar Tiwari"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1645283","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ceb5050fc7f19284","title":"Central Bank Policy and the concentration of risk: Empirical estimates","abstract":"Before the 2008 crisis, the cross-sectional skewness of banks’ leverage went up and macro risk concentrated in the balance sheets of large banks. Using a model of profit-maximizing banks with heterogeneous Value-at-Risk constraints, we extract the distribution of banks’ risk-taking parameters from balance sheet data. The time series of these estimates allow us to understand systemic risk and its concentration in the banking sector over time. Counterfactual exercises show that (1) monetary policymakers confront the trade-off between stimulating the economy and financial stability, and (2) macroprudential policies can be effective tools to increase financial stability.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Nuno Coimbra","Daisoon Kim","Hélène Rey"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.08.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cec44f4721a8c6b2","title":"Global Pricing of Carbon‐Transition Risk","abstract":"The energy transition away from fossil fuels exposes companies to carbon‐transition risk. Estimating the market‐based premium associated with carbon‐transition risk in a cross section of 14,400 firms in 77 countries, we find higher stock returns associated with higher levels and growth rates of carbon emissions in all sectors and most countries. Carbon premia related to emissions growth are greater for firms located in countries with lower economic development, larger energy sectors, and less inclusive political systems. Premia related to emission levels are higher in countries with stricter domestic climate policies. The latter have increased with investor awareness about climate change risk.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Patrick Bolton","Marcin Kacperczyk"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13272","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ced072e433de5185","title":"The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recession","abstract":"In this paper we seek to make headway on the question of what recovery from Covid-19 recession may look like, focusing on the duration of the recovery - that is, how long it will take to re-attain the levels of output and employment reached at the prior business cycle peak. We start by categorizing all post-1960 recessions in advanced countries and emerging markets into supply-shock, demand-shock and both-shock induced recessions. We measure recovery duration as the number of years required to re-attain pre-recession levels of output or employment. We then rely on the earlier literature on business cycle dynamics to identify candidate variables that can help to account for variations in recovery duration following different kinds of shocks. By asking which of these variables are operative in the Covid-19 recession, we can then draw inferences about the duration of the recovery under different scenarios. A number of our statistical results point in the direction of lengthy recoveries.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Barry Eichengreen","Donghyun Park","Kwanho Shin"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103330","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ced2d88a600b9d3b","title":"Corporate Climate Risk: Measurements and Responses","abstract":"This paper conducts a textual analysis of earnings call transcripts to quantify climate risk exposure at the firm level. We construct dictionaries that measure physical and transition climate risks separately and identify firms that proactively respond to climate risks. Our validation analysis shows that our measures capture firm-level variations in respective climate risk exposure. Firms facing high transition risk, especially those that do not proactively respond, have been valued at a discount in recent years as aggregate investor attention to climate-related issues has been increasing. We document differences in how firms respond through investment, green innovation, and employment when facing high climate risk exposure.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Qing Li","Hongyu Shan","Yuehua Tang","Vincent Yao"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad094","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cee7e2dcf1d5e243","title":"Reducing Inequality through Dynamic Complementarity: Evidence from Head Start and Public School Spending","abstract":"We compare the adult outcomes of cohorts who were differentially exposed to policy-induced changes in Head Start and K–12 spending, depending on place and year of birth. IV and sibling-difference estimates indicate that, for poor children, these policies both increased educational attainment and earnings, and reduced poverty and incarceration. The benefits of Head Start were larger when followed by access to better-funded schools, and increases in K–12 spending were more efficacious when preceded by Head Start exposure. The findings suggest dynamic complementarities, implying that early educational investments that are sustained may break the cycle of poverty.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Rucker C. Johnson","C. Kirabo Jackson"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180510","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cee846d9fadd3213","title":"Climate Finance","abstract":"Climate finance is the study of local and global financing of public and private investment that seeks to support mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. In 2017, the Review of Financial Studies launched a competition among scholars to develop research proposals on the topic with the goal of publishing this special volume. We describe the competition, how the nine projects featured in this volume came to be published, and frame their findings within what we view as a broader climate finance research program.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Harrison Hong","George Andrew Karolyi","José Scheinkman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz146","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ceed8b33d997f2e1","title":"How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis","abstract":"Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19 shock and benefit less from policy responses. We find that firms with high financial flexibility within an industry experience a stock price drop that is 26$\\%$, or 9.7 percentage points, lower than those with low financial flexibility. This differential return persists as stock prices rebound. Firms more exposed to the COVID-19 shock benefit more from cash holdings. No evidence suggests that recent payouts worsened the average firm’s drop in stock price. Our results cannot be explained by a leverage effect.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Rüdiger Fahlenbrach","Kevin Rageth","René M. Stulz"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa134","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf0d8be4143fa615","title":"Quantifying landscape externalities of renewable energy development: Implications of attribute cut-offs in choice experiments","abstract":"Renewable energy is worldwide seen as a key element necessary to address climate change. However, finding socially acceptable locations for renewable energy facilities and the accompanying infrastructure increasingly often faces fierce opposition. This paper quantifies the landscape externalities of renewable energies employing a choice experiment. In addition, it is investigated how accounting for non-compensatory choice behavior, i.e. attribute cut-offs, affects welfare measures and subsequently policy recommendations. The empirical application is Germany where we conducted a nationwide survey on the development of renewable energies. We first show that cut-off elicitation questions prior to the choice experiment at least partially influence preferences. We further find that most participants state cut-off levels for attributes. Many are, however, at the same time willing to violate the self-imposed thresholds when choosing among the alternatives. To account for this effect, stated cut-offs are incorporated into a mixed logit model following the soft cut-off approach. Model results indicate substantial taste heterogeneity in preferences and in the use of cutoffs. Also, welfare estimates are substantially affected. We conclude that welfare changes from renewable energy development could be strongly underestimated when cut-offs are ignored.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Malte Oehlmann","Klaus Glenk","Patrick Lloyd‐Smith","Jürgen Meyerhoff"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101240","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf0dd8dfeb3fbdf1","title":"Climate risks and FDI","abstract":"Climate-related risks have increased in recent decades, both in terms of the frequency of extreme weather events (physical risk) and the implementation of climate-change mitigation policies (transition risk). This paper explores whether multinational firms react to such risks by altering their presence in countries that are more affected. We measure this by examining foreign direct investment (FDI) dynamics at different levels of aggregation as well as at the firm level. We propose a theoretical framework for firm production location choice that explicitly incorporates transition and physical risks. The model predicts a reduction in FDI resulting from both physical and transition risks but an ambiguous interaction effect of these risks with emission productivity. In an extensive empirical analysis, we find some support for model predictions, but overall we do not find consistent evidence for statistically significant effects of physical and transition risks on FDI. However, firm-level evidence suggests that firms that are more exposed to climate risks react more negatively to physical climate risk following Paris Climate Accord. We also find that FDI outflows following extreme weather events from affected countries are smaller for industries with higher emission productivity (greener industries). Our theory and empirical results point to the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in emission productivity when analyzing the effects of climate risks.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Grace Weishi Gu","Galina Hale"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103731","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf2a90dce712811a","title":"Consumer willingness to pay for traditional food products","abstract":"Reflecting the growing interest from both consumers and policymakers, and building on recent developments in Willingness to Pay (WTP) methodologies, we evaluate consumer preferences for an archetypal traditional food product. Specifically we draw on stated preference data from a discrete choice experiment, considering the traditional Hungarian mangalitza salami. A WTP space specification of the generalized multinomial logit model is employed, which accounts for not only heterogeneity in preferences but also differences in the scale of the idiosyncratic error term. Results indicate that traditional food products can command a substantial premium, albeit contingent on effective quality certification, authentic product composition and effective choice of retail outlet. Promising consumer segments and policy implications are identified.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Péter Balogh","Dániel Békési","Matthew Gorton","József Popp","Péter Lengyel"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.03.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf2ddd40b78011e8","title":"Regulating online search in the EU: From the android case to the digital markets act and digital services act","abstract":"This paper offers an analysis of the impacts of public regulations of internet search. Through a theoretical model, we consider three regulations adopted by the EU. The first is the Android choice screen implemented in the European Economic Area in 2020. The other two are the recently adopted Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA). We find that interventions involving user choice, like the Android choice screen, can be strengthened by other interventions focused on search engine quality and data portability. Since the regulations in the DMA target these multiple dimensions simultaneously, we expect it to deliver the strongest and most effective impacts on the online search market. We also argue that the impacts of the regulations may vary over different time horizons: when first implemented, the DSA may simply direct users to search engines with better privacy protection, but over time it has the potential to change user tastes for privacy and, hence, drive search engines to invest more in privacy protection.","wordCount":165,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Francesco Decarolis","Muxin Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102983","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf42ee709f787b1d","title":"The Impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Prices and Product Availability","abstract":"In recent years, numerous cities in the U.S. have enacted taxes on beverages to promote health and raise revenue. This paper examines the impact of Philadelphia's beverage tax, enacted in 2017, on the prices and availability of both taxed and untaxed beverages. Using original data we collected in late 2016 and again one year later, we estimate difference‐in‐differences regressions of the change over time in beverage prices and availability in stores in Philadelphia relative to stores in nearby counties. We find that, on average, distributors and retailers fully passed through the tax to consumers. Pass‐through is higher for individual servings than for larger sizes. There is also heterogeneity in the pass‐through rate among stores; it is greater among stores that are in higher‐poverty neighborhoods, located farther from untaxed stores outside Philadelphia, and that are independent as opposed to part of national chains. We also find that the tax reduced the availability of taxed beverages and increased the availability of untaxed beverages, particularly bottled water, in Philadelphia stores.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["John Cawley","David Frisvold","Anna Hill","David J. Jones"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22201","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cf66b900c3e9110f","title":"Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation","abstract":"A timely low-carbon transition will require a significant decline in fossil fuel production and consumption. This in turn exposes the rest of economic sectors to the risk of reduced usability of physical capital stocks via international production network linkages. We propose and apply a simple measure to assess the extent to which fossil shocks might trigger underutilisation of capital stocks across countries and productive sectors (‘stranding multipliers’). Our results highlight the relevance of supply-side transition risks. First, among all productive activities, the global fossil sector exhibits the highest stranding multiplier on the rest of the economic system. Second, some of the most exposed sectors are downstream activities, mainly affected by second-round effects. Third, we rank countries according to their external stranding potential, finding France, Australia and Slovakia at the top, and the USA, Italy and China at its bottom. Finally, we rank countries according to their exposure to stranding risk and analyse more in depth the origins and transmission channels of the stranding links affecting some of the most exposed countries (USA, China and Germany).","wordCount":175,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Louison Cahen-Fourot","Emanuele Campiglio","Antoine Godin","Eric Kemp‐Benedict","Stefan Trsek"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105581","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf6e58d7b909ca3b","title":"Stability and venture structures in multilateral matching","abstract":"We consider a multilateral matching market, where two or more agents can engage in a joint venture via multilateral contracts. Possible joint ventures are exogenously given. We study four stability concepts: stability, weak setwise stability, strong group stability, and setwise stability. We characterize the structure of possible joint ventures that guarantee the efficiency and existence of outcomes satisfying these stability concepts under general preference profiles. Specifically, we show that any stable outcome, weakly setwise stable outcome, and setwise stable outcome are efficient for any preference profile if and only if the structure of possible joint ventures satisfies a condition called the acyclicity. We also show that the acyclicity is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a stable outcome and strongly group stable outcome for any preference profile. Moreover, we show that a weaker condition called the no-crossing property is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a weakly setwise stable outcome and setwise stable outcome for any preference profile.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Keisuke Bando","Toshiyuki Hirai"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105292","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf7b1079a7808973","title":"Industrial organization and The Rise of Market Power","abstract":"This article addresses developments in the literature on The Rise of Market Power . First, it summarizes research about the result of De Loecker et al. (2020) that the sales-weighted average markup has increased in the United States. Second, it summarizes and evaluates a set of industry studies that examine market power over long time horizons in specific settings. A theme that emerges from these industry studies is that technological advancements matter a great deal for the evolution of economic outcomes. By contrast, the studies do not point to weak antitrust enforcement as contributing to greater market power. The article concludes by outlining directions for future research.","wordCount":107,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Nathan Miller"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103131","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cf7ff4c3ef3cd083","title":"The mitigating effects of blockchain adoption on supply chain financing disruptions under crises: Evidence from China","abstract":"The paper investigates the negative effect of the COVID-19 crisis on supply chain financing in China. It examines the role of blockchain adoption in mitigating such disruptions by using data from Chinese firms between 2015 and 2022 and employs textual analysis to construct indexes on firms' blockchain innovation and supply chain risk exposure. We find that firms with high supply chain risk experience a more significant reduction in formal and informal financing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, blockchain adoption helps provide more resilience to supply chain financing disruptions in the crisis by enhancing information transparency, corporate governance, and production network efficiency. Further analysis shows that the alleviation effect is heterogeneous and more pronounced for firms with private ownership and lower social trust. The main results remain consistent using alternative measures based on Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), a large language model. Our paper highlights the importance of digital technology advancement in protecting supply chain security under crises.","wordCount":156,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Haolin Li","Sirui Cheng","Xiuping Hua","Yong Wang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102502","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-cf8123c2e9a8bcc5","title":"Do-It-Yourself medicine? The impact of light cannabis liberalization on prescription drugs","abstract":"Governments worldwide are increasingly concerned about the booming use of CBD (cannabidiol) products. However, we know little about the impact of their liberalization. We study a unique case of unintended liberalization of a CBD-based product (light cannabis) that occurred in Italy in 2017. Using unique and high-frequency data on prescription drug sales and by exploiting the staggered local availability of the new product in each Italian province, we document a significant substitution effect between light cannabis and anxiolytics, sedatives, opioids, anti-depressants and anti-psychotics. Results are informative for regulators and suggest that bans on light cannabis use would disregard the needs of patients to seek effective reliefs of their symptoms.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Vincenzo Carrieri","Leonardo Madio","Francesco Principe"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102371","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cf838bbf7a724978","title":"Middle Class, Government Effectiveness and Poverty in the EU: A Dynamic Multilevel Analysis","abstract":"Using the 2008‐2011 EU‐Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data, we implement a dynamic three‐level model to analyze poverty persistence in 26 EU countries. We isolate true state dependence phenomena by disentangling the effects of observed and unobserved heterogeneity at country level and employ cofactors not previously considered by the literature. Estimates show that unobserved heterogeneity across individuals remains large, even after explicitly controlling for the observable components of individual characteristics. The initial value of poverty has large effects on current poverty status but this effect is not uniform across countries. The risk of poverty is negatively related to the size of the structural middle class and to the level of structural social expenditure but it increases when l agged total public expenditure increases (with respect to the structural value). There is strong evidence of true state dependence.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Bruno Bosco","Ambra Poggi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12403","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cf896c71637c263e","title":"Law and Innovation: Evidence from State Trade Secrets Laws","abstract":"Here, I study the effect of state enactment of the Uniform Trade Secrets Act (UTSA) on R&D among U.S. businesses between 1979 and 1998. Using a new index of the legal protection of trade secrets, I find that the UTSA was associated with higher R&D among larger companies and those in high-tech industries. For the average company in the respective industry, the UTSA was associated with 3.2% more R&D in pharmaceuticals and 3.1% more R&D in computers and office equipment, as contrasted with no significant change in soaps and cleaners, and industrial machinery and equipment.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Ivan Png"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00532","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cf8b42583ea77d58","title":"Interest rates, money, and economic activity","abstract":"In this paper, we are motivated by the fact that little is known about the relative performance of broad and narrow Divisia monetary aggregates, and by recent work that tests and rejects the appropriateness of the aggregation assumptions that underlie the various monetary aggregates published by the Federal Reserve as well as a large number of monetary asset groupings suggested by earlier studies. We present a comprehensive comparison of narrow versus broad Divisia monetary aggregates within three classes of empirical models. We compute correlations between the cyclical components of Divisia monetary aggregates at different levels of aggregation and the cyclical component of industrial production. We test for Granger causality running from the Divisia aggregates to industrial production and various other measures of real economic activity. We also reestimate a structural vector autoregression based on earlier work by Leeper and Roush [(2003) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 35, 1217–1256] and Belongia and Ireland [(2015) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 33, 255–269; (2016) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48, 1223–1266], modifying that earlier work using monthly rather than quarterly data and extending it, both using broad as well as narrower Divisia monetary aggregates and by allowing for Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) behavior in the structural shocks.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Cosmas Dery","Apostolos Serletis"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000890","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cfab79523e9f7498","title":"The game changer: Regulatory reform and multiple credit ratings","abstract":"This paper examines the change in the regulatory use of multiple credit ratings after the Dodd-Frank Act (Dodd-Frank). We find that post Dodd-Frank reform, firms are less likely to demand a third rating (typically from Fitch) for ratings near the high yield (HY) - investment grade (IG) boundary to support their new corporate bond issues. Third ratings also become less informative post Dodd-Frank, with a much weaker market impact on credit spreads for firms with S&P and Moody's ratings on opposite sides of the HY-IG rating boundary. We provide new evidence on the effect of Dodd-Frank in curbing corporate borrowers’ strategic use of multiple credit ratings near this boundary.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["He Huang","Jiří Švec","Eliza Wu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106279","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cfbc343e92cd6fe5","title":"The brexit vote, inflation and u.k. Living standards","abstract":"This article studies how voting for Brexit affected living standards in the United Kingdom. Using heterogeneity in exposure to import costs across product groups, we analyze how the depreciation of sterling caused by the referendum affected consumer prices. We find that the Brexit depreciation led to higher inflation in product groups with greater import shares in consumer expenditure. Our results are consistent with complete pass‐through of import costs to consumer prices and imply aggregate exchange rate pass‐through of 0.29. We estimate the Brexit depreciation increased consumer prices by 2.9%, costing the average household £870 per year.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Holger Breinlich","Elsa Leromain","Dennis Novy","Thomas Sampson"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12541","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cfc22faad4c26b8b","title":"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects","abstract":"We show that the neighborhoods in which children grow up shape their earnings, college attendance rates, and fertility and marriage patterns by studying more than 7 million families who move across commuting zones and counties in the United States. Exploiting variation in the age of children when families move, we find that neighborhoods have significant childhood exposure effects: the outcomes of children whose families move to a better neighborhood—as measured by the outcomes of children already living there—improve linearly in proportion to the amount of time they spend growing up in that area, at a rate of approximately 4% per year of exposure. We distinguish the causal effects of neighborhoods from confounding factors by comparing the outcomes of siblings within families, studying moves triggered by displacement shocks, and exploiting sharp variation in predicted place effects across birth cohorts, genders, and quantiles to implement overidentification tests. The findings show that neighborhoods affect intergenerational mobility primarily through childhood exposure, helping reconcile conflicting results in the prior literature.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Raj Chetty","Nathaniel Hendren"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy007","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cfd7a8a5f9eb0739","title":"Financialization of agricultural commodities: Evidence from China","abstract":"Speculation in the commodity futures market distorts commodity prices, driving them away from rational levels. This phenomenon, which is known as the financialization of commodities, has raised significant concerns in recent years. Particularly, in the agricultural market, ‘financialized’ commodities have been blamed for high world food prices. In this paper, we examine the financialization of agricultural commodities in China. To do so, a time-varying copula is employed to investigate the dependence structure between commodities and stock markets. Four insightful results are obtained. First, positive correlations between agricultural commodities and stock markets demonstrate the financialization of agricultural commodities. Second, the identified correlations are time-varying and idiosyncratic with respect to products. Third, the agricultural commodity market is more closely correlated with the domestic stock market than with the overseas market. Fourth, a growing dependence between commodities and the stock markets is detected and the co-movement became stronger after the global financial crisis.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Ruolan Ouyang","Xuan Zhang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cfdc18d08baf6e6d","title":"Costly miscalibration","abstract":"We consider a platform that provides probabilistic forecasts to a customer using some algorithm. We introduce a concept of miscalibration, which measures the discrepancy between the forecast and the truth. We characterize the platform's optimal equilibrium when it incurs some cost for miscalibration, and show how this equilibrium depends on the miscalibration cost: when the miscalibration cost is low, the platform uses more distant forecasts and the customer is less responsive to the platform's forecast; when the miscalibration cost is high, the platform can achieve its commitment payoff in an equilibrium and the only extensive‐form rationalizable strategy of the platform is its strategy in the commitment solution. Our results show that miscalibration cost is a proxy for the degree of the platform's commitment power and, thus, provide a microfoundation for the commitment solution.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Yingni Guo","Eran Shmaya"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3991","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-cfe595163839e28a","title":"Using social norms to explain giving behavior","abstract":"Transfers of resources in dictator games vary significantly by the characteristics of recipients. We focus on social norms and demonstrate that variation in the recipient changes both giving and injunctive norms and may offer an explanation for differences in giving. We elicit generosity using dictator games, and social norms using incentivized coordination games, with two different recipient types: an anonymous student and a charitable organization. A within-subjects design ensures that other factors are held constant. Our results show that differences in giving behavior are closely related to differences in social norms of giving across contexts. Controlling for individual differences in beliefs about the norm, subjects do not weight compliance with the norms in the student recipient or charity recipient dictator game differently. These results suggest that the impact of context on giving co-occurs with an impact on social norms.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Catherine C. Eckel","Hanna Hoover","Erin L. Krupka","Nishita Sinha","Rick K. Wilson"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-023-09811-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cfeb95f6e1d2012d","title":"Wealth Inequality: A Hybrid Approach Toward Multidimensional Distributional National Accounts In Europe","abstract":"This article proposes a practically feasible framework for compiling Multidimensional Distributional National Accounts (MDINAs) serving two functions: a comprehensive measure of (components of) net worth and their distribution, and a link to macroeconomic statistics. I break down 12 components of marketable wealth by wealth and income groups, and three functions of wealth for Austria, Finland, France, Germany, and Spain. MDINA complemented by summary indicators reveal large heterogeneity in the degree of inequality, and shed light on differences in the structure of wealth portfolios across and within countries. I combine data collected in the largely harmonized HFCS survey and adjust for remaining differences in survey modes regarding the treatment of the top tail using (Generalized) Pareto models estimated from rich lists or top wealth shares derived from tax data and leaked information on wealth held in offshore tax havens. Measured inequality increases strongest in countries where surveys refrain from appropriate top‐tail corrections.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Sofie R. Waltl"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12519","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-cfeb96b01e030c3e","title":"The Non-Democratic Roots of Elite Capture: Evidence From Soeharto Mayors in Indonesia","abstract":"Democracies widely differ in the extent to which powerful elites and interest groups retain influence over politics. While a large literature argues that elite capture is rooted in a country's history, our understanding of the determinants of elite persistence is limited. In this paper, we show that allowing old-regime agents to remain in office during democratic transitions is a key determinant of the extent of elite capture. We exploit quasi-random from Indonesia: Soeharto-regime mayors were allowed to finish their terms before being replaced by new leaders. Since mayors' political cycles were not synchronized, this event generated exogenous variation in how long old-regime mayors remained in their position during the democratic transition. Districts with longer exposure to old-regime mayors experience worse governance outcomes, higher elite persistence, and lower political competition in the medium run. The results suggest that slower transitions towards democracy allow the old-regime elites to capture democracy.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Mónica Martínez-Bravo","Priya Mukherjee","Andreas Stegmann"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14125","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-cff0dfc881301d59","title":"Higher education expansion and gender norms: evidence from China","abstract":"This paper explores whether the expansion of higher education can influence attitudes regarding gender norms. I evaluate the impact of China’s higher education expansion since 1999. The results show that the reform has significantly increased higher educational attainment for both women and men. However, women’s progressive views on gender roles are negatively affected following the expansion. The erosion of women’s egalitarian ideology can be attributed to the findings that women’s opportunities in the labor market are worsening relative to those of men. The results are significantly driven by married women and people who live in areas with a high male-to-female sex ratio. Practical conditions in the labor market and at home may adversely affect women’s ability to fulfill egalitarian gender roles.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Wei Si"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00888-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-cff897aa9fe3580a","title":"Gender gaps from labor market shocks","abstract":"Job loss leads to persistent adverse labor market outcomes, but assessments of gender differences in labor market recovery are lacking. We utilize plant closures in Denmark to estimate gender gaps in labor market outcomes and document that women face an increased risk of unemployment and lose a larger share of their earnings in the two years following job displacement. When accounting for observable differences in human capital across men and women, half of the gender gap in unemployment remains. In a standard decomposition framework, we document that childcare imposes an important barrier to women’s labor market recovery regardless of individual characteristics.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Ria Ivandić","Anne Sophie Lassen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102394","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-cffde8396fc58f46","title":"Gender preference gaps and voting for redistribution","abstract":"There is substantial evidence that women tend to support different policies and political candidates than men. Many studies also document gender differences in a variety of important preference dimensions, such as risk-taking, competition and pro-sociality. However, the degree to which differential voting by men and women is related to these gaps in more basic preferences requires an improved understanding. We conduct an experiment in which individuals in small laboratory \"societies\" repeatedly vote for redistribution policies and engage in production. We find that women vote for more egalitarian redistribution and that this difference persists with experience and in environments with varying degrees of risk. This gender voting gap is accounted for partly by both gender gaps in preferences and by expectations regarding economic circumstances. However, including both these controls in a regression analysis indicates that the latter is the primary driving force. We also observe policy differences between male- and female-controlled groups, though these are substantially smaller than the mean individual differences-a natural consequence of the aggregation of individual preferences into collective outcomes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10683-021-09741-8.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Eva Ranehill","Roberto A. Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09741-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d00621c9bc37a1fd","title":"Attention Platforms, the Value of Content, and Public Policy","abstract":"This paper shows that two related aspects of attention platforms are important for the sound economic analysis of public policy including antitrust: first, attention platforms generate valuable content. Even though people often don’t pay for content, we know from revealed preference that content is valuable because people spend a considerable amount of time—which has an opportunity cost—consuming it. Second, demand for advertising and the supply of content are interdependent. A decrease in the demand for advertising reduces the returns to supplying content and therefore the amount of content that is provided. Accounting for the value of content and these positive feedbacks cannot determine optimal interventions; but failing to do so can result in policies that reduce consumer—as well as advertiser—welfare. The paper then considers the implications of these considerations for public policy: particularly privacy regulation and antitrust enforcement. From the standpoint of promoting consumer welfare, the failure to account for the value of content and the ad-content interdependencies increases the chances that authorities do not intervene when they should and do intervene when they should not.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["David S. Evans"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09681-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d014a64a4e4eed38","title":"Peer effects on risk behaviour: the importance of group identity","abstract":"This paper investigates whether and to what extent group identity plays a role in peer effects on risk behaviour. We run a laboratory experiment in which different levels of group identity are induced through different matching protocols (random or based on individual painting preferences) and the possibility to interact with group members via an online chat in a group task. Risk behaviour is measured by using the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task and peer influence is introduced by giving subjects feedback regarding group members' previous decisions. We find that subjects are affected by their peers when taking decisions and that group identity influences the magnitude of peer effects: painting preferences matching significantly reduces the heterogeneity in risk behaviour compared with random matching. On the other hand, introducing a group task has no significant effect on behaviour, possibly because interaction does not always contribute to enhancing group identity. Finally, relative riskiness within the group matters and individuals whose peers are riskier than they are take on average riskier decisions, even when controlling for regression to the mean.","wordCount":175,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Francesca Gioia"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9478-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d0389b036cf261b4","title":"Gender Differences in the Choice of Major: The Importance of Female Role Models","abstract":"We conducted a field experiment aimed at increasing the percentage of women majoring in economics. We exposed students enrolled in introductory classes to successful and charismatic women who majored in economics at the same university. The intervention significantly impacted female students’ enrollment in further economics classes, increasing their likelihood to major in economics by 8 percentage points. This is a large effect, given that only 9 percent of women were majoring in economics at baseline. Since the impacted women were previously planning to major in lower-earning fields, our low-cost intervention may have a positive effect on their future incomes.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Catherine Porter","Danila Serra"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180426","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d03a674aa870044e","title":"Robots at Work","abstract":"We analyze for the first time the economic contributions of modern industrial robots, which are flexible, versatile, and autonomous machines. We use novel panel data on robot adoption within industries in seventeen countries from 1993 to 2007 and new instrumental variables that rely on robots’ comparative advantage in specific tasks. Our findings suggest that increased robot use contributed approximately 0.36 percentage points to annual labor productivity growth, while at the same time raising total factor productivity and lowering output prices. Our estimates also suggest that robots did not significantly reduce total employment, although they did reduce low-skilled workers’ employment share.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Georg Graetz","Guy Michaels"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00754","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d05adc08bb01fe3a","title":"Working from home, hours worked and wages: Heterogeneity by gender and parenthood","abstract":"Working from home (WfH) has been widely adopted since the Covid-19 pandemic. Pre-pandemic evidence on how hybrid work arrangements relate to labour market outcomes is a scarce and valuable benchmark. We exploit the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1997 and 2014 to investigate how such a work arrangement relates to working hours, wages and job satisfaction for different demographic groups. We find that childless employees work an extra hour of unpaid overtime per week and report higher job satisfaction after taking up WfH. Among parents, gender differences in working hours and monthly earnings are lower after WfH take-up. However, hourly wage increases with WfH take-up are limited to fathers, unless mothers change employers. We discuss the role of career changes, commuting and working-time flexibility in explaining these findings.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Melanie Arntz","Sarra Ben Yahmed","Francesco Berlingieri"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102169","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d05cba8029bbde1e","title":"Measuring Liquidity in Bond Markets","abstract":"In the literature, there is no consensus on a common approach to measure bond liquidity. This paper is the first to comprehensively compare all commonly employed liquidity measures based on intraday and daily data for the U.S. corporate bond market. We find that high-frequency measures based on intraday data are very strongly correlated, implying that previous results should be robust regarding the chosen measure. Most low-frequency proxies based on daily data generally also measure transaction costs well. However, three proxies clearly take the lead: Corwin and Schultz's (2012) high-low spread estimator, Roll's (1984) measure, and Hasbrouck's (2009) Gibbs measure.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Raphael Schestag","Philipp Schuster","Marliese Uhrig‐Homburg"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv132","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d05d9c70a345f07e","title":"The effect of water filtration on cholera mortality","abstract":"This paper examines how water filtration and distribution helped reduce mortality during a cholera outbreak. Using household water contract records and individual mortality data, I analyze the impact of filtered water with an event study approach. The results show that having access to filtered water at home greatly reduced the risk of death. This suggests that water filtration and distribution were key public health measures in lowering mortality from waterborne diseases in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Improvements in urban water systems could have played a major role in the decline of cholera outbreaks and mortality during this period.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Daniel Knutsson"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103752","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d064820d75ce9057","title":"Domestic Violence and Divorce Law: When Divorce Threats Become Credible","abstract":"The cost of divorce influences the bargaining position of spouses and thus their behavior within the marriage. This study takes advantage of a major and unexpected reduction in divorce costs in Spain to estimate the causal effects on domestic violence. Results suggest a 30% decline in spousal conflict as a consequence of the reform. Spousal violence is found to have decreased among couples who remained married after the modification in the law, which suggests an important role for changes in bargaining within the marriage when divorce becomes a more credible (cheaper) option.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Pablo Brassiolo"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/683666","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d06e158d17666b04","title":"Power for progress: The impact of electricity on individual labor market outcomes","abstract":"How does new technology impact labor market outcomes? We address this question by examining the adoption of electricity in Sweden during the early 20th century. Leveraging detailed individual-level data that covers the entire labor market and exogenous variation in electricity access driven by proximity to hydro-power plants, we estimate the impact of electrification on individual labor market outcomes. Our findings show significantly higher earnings in electricity-adopting parishes compared to control areas. The income gains were particularly pronounced among lower-income workers and those with primary education only, resulting in reduced income inequality. These effects held across labor markets with both strong and weak union presence, suggesting that electricity functioned as a labor-supporting technology. Our results highlight how specific technologies can shape individual outcomes and income distributions.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jonathan Jayes","Jakob Molinder","Kerstin Enflo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101702","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d07cd411008946d4","title":"Dynamic Spillovers in the United States: Stock Market, Housing, Uncertainty, and the Macroeconomy","abstract":"In this study, we examine dynamic spillovers among the housing market, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States in a unified empirical framework. Applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology on monthly data over the period 1987M1–2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic fluctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular inflation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilize the economy.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Nikolaos Antonakakis","Christophe André","Rangan Gupta"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12149","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d07e87042be968b2","title":"Performance, diversity and national identity evidence from association football","abstract":"The increasing national diversity of coworkers has no consensus on its impact on performance. Using a team's predominant nationality as a proxy for national diversity and national identity, there is robust evidence that it affects team and individual performance. Detailed worker‐level data from a highly globalized industry, association football, show a nonlinear relationship between performance and the predominant nationality of a team's roster. As the number of members from the predominant nationality increases, performance declines. However, beyond a threshold level, performance rises. It follows that performance benefits from national diversity when the predominant nationality is small and from national identity when it is large.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Jorge Tovar"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12861","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d0819d2d4aef1706","title":"Can paying politicians well reduce corruption? The effects of wages and uncertainty on electoral competition","abstract":"We investigate the effects of wages and uncertainty on political corruption as measured by rent-taking. First, our laboratory data show that contrary to standard theory, rent-taking is not independent of, but decreases with wages in the absence of popularity shocks. Second, the orthodox view that rent-taking is greater in the presence of popularity shocks, given wages, is not necessarily true. Third, we find that in the presence of popularity or ideological shocks rent-taking is increasing in the variance of the shock for given wages, and is decreasing in wages for a given variance of the shock. While our third finding is in line with the directional predictions of the Nash equilibria, the deviation from Nash is large when the variance of the popularity shock is high and wages are low. We show that the deviations can be explained using a Quantal Response Equilibrium approach and taking risk-attitudes into account.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Tom‐Reiel Heggedal","Leif Helland","Rebecca B. Morton"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.05.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d08ff7e59c9e2ac3","title":"Locating Public Facilities: Theory and Micro Evidence from Paris","abstract":"This paper proposes a novel approach to evaluate location decisions for public facilities. The approach addresses, not only the standard distance-minimizing problem, but also the endogenous location decisions of individuals. The paper develops a quantifiable general equilibrium model with endogenous (residential and commercial) densities, housing prices, commutes to work, as well as to public/private facilities. The framework is applied to the case of secondary schools in Paris’ greater region at a 1km2 geographical scale. The analysis reveals that the observed location decisions made between 2001 and 2015 underestimate the endogenous reaction of individuals. A more decentralized strategy is predicted to increase welfare growth by 10 percent, reduce density in Paris’ center, and shorten commuting times to school globally.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Gabriel Loumeau"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103544","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d09386c79908425d","title":"What moves markets?","abstract":"What share of asset price movements is driven by news? We build a large, time-stamped event database covering scheduled macro news as well as unscheduled events and find that news account for up to 35% of bond and stock price movements in the United States and euro area since 2002. This suggests that a much larger share of return variation can be traced back to observable news than previously thought. Moreover, we provide stylized facts about the type of news that matter most for asset prices, spillover effects between the US and euro area, and the predictability of monetary policy shocks.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Mark Kerssenfischer","Maik Schmeling"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103560","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d09fedea7c42cb7e","title":"Economically exhaustible resources in an oligopoly-fringe model with renewables","abstract":"We consider a game between oligopolistic and fringe suppliers of fossil fuel from an exhaustible resource, and producers of a renewable perfect substitute. Extraction costs are stock-dependent and strictly convex in the rate of extraction. We characterize the open-loop Nash equilibrium analytically and perform numerical simulations with calibrated parameter values. The effects of our cost assumptions are (i) to have asymptotic economical instead of physical exhaustion of the non-renewable resource and (ii) the existence of a limit-pricing phase in which both fossil and renewables suppliers are active. We decompose the welfare loss of imperfect competition in a conservation and a sequence effect, and show that both can be substantial: 3.8 and 4.2 trillion US$ in the calibrated model, respectively. We also examine Green Paradox effects and find that initial carbon emissions depend non-monotonically on the renewables subsidy rate.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Hassan Benchekroun","Gerard van der Meijden","Cees Withagen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102853","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d0a039ed34a94829","title":"Who gets the flow? Financial globalisation and wealth inequality","abstract":"This paper studies whether the advent of financial globalisation has contributed to increasing wealth inequality in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. I find that (i) positive changes in the benchmark measure of financial globalisation are associated with a positive change in the top 1% and 10% wealth shares and a negative change in the wealth share of the bottom 50% of the distribution. This is equivalent to an average gain of $1 trillion for the top 10% and $1.6 trillion for the top 1%, over the period of interest. (ii) Portfolio equities and financial derivatives appear to be the driving components behind the increase in wealth shares. (iii) The implied change in wealth shares is driven by the accumulation of new financial wealth (flow) rather than the valuation of existing one. (iv) The dynamic is strengthened when a banking crisis hits the economy, possibly because people at the top of the distribution can recover their lost wealth faster than people at the bottom. The main finding is robust to an expanded country sample, albeit reducing the historical context beyond the scope of this paper.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Simone Arrigoni"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103618","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d0a06c049086440c","title":"Early Childcare and Cognitive Development: Evidence from an Assignment Lottery","abstract":"Young children are thought to be vulnerable to separation from their primary caregiver. This raises concern about whether early childcare enrollment may harm child development. We use childcare assignment lotteries to estimate the effect of enrollment at age 1–2 on cognitive development in Norway. Estimates show significant gains in language and mathematics at age 6–7 and a substantial drop in scores below publicly set thresholds for low performance. Across subsamples, we find a pattern of stronger effects on underperforming groups. We find little support for childcare quality or family income as drivers of our results.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Nina Drange","Tarjei Havnes"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700193","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d0adf97512158a2c","title":"Noisy Stock Prices and Corporate Investment","abstract":"Firms significantly reduce their investment in response to nonfundamental drops in the stock price of their product-market peers. We argue that this results stems from managers’ limited ability to filter out the noise in the stock prices when using them as signals about their investment opportunities. Ensuing losses of capital investment and shareholders’ wealth are economically large and even affect firms not facing severe financing constraints or agency problems. Our findings offer a novel perspective on how stock market inefficiencies can affect the real economy, even in the absence of financing or agency frictions.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Olivier Dessaint","Thierry Foucault","Laurent Frésard","Adrien Matray"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy115","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d0b7834abbb44e92","title":"The Development Effects of the Extractive Colonial Economy: The Dutch Cultivation System in Java","abstract":"Colonial powers typically organized economic activity in the colonies to maximize their economic returns. While the literature has emphasized long-run negative economic impacts via institutional quality, the changes in economic organization implemented to spur production historically could also directly influence economic organization in the long-run, exerting countervailing effects. We examine these in the context of the Dutch Cultivation System, the integrated industrial and agricultural system for producing sugar that formed the core of the Dutch colonial enterprise in 19th century Java. We show that areas close to where the Dutch established sugar factories in the mid-19th century are today more industrialized, have better infrastructure, are more educated, and are richer than nearby counterfactual locations that would have been similarly suitable for colonial sugar factories. We also show, using a spatial regression discontinuity design on the catchment areas around each factory, that villages forced to grow sugar cane have more village-owned land and also have more schools and substantially higher education levels, both historically and today. The results suggest that the economic structures implemented by colonizers to facilitate production can continue to promote economic activity in the long run, and we discuss the contexts where such effects are most likely to be important.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Melissa Dell","Benjamin Olken"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d0bb8cae02969ae3","title":"Social identity and labor market outcomes of immigrants","abstract":"This paper explores the relationship between social identity and labor market outcomes of immigrants. Using survey data from Italy, we provide robust evidence that integrated immigrants, who state they have strong feelings of belonging to the societies of both the host and home country, have higher employment rates than do assimilated immigrants, who identify exclusively with the host country culture. Unlike previous literature, our findings indicate that assimilation does not necessarily provide a clear labor market advantage over immigrants who identify only with their original ethnic group. The positive labor market effect of integration is especially large for women, low-skilled, and immigrants with a brief experience in Italy and arriving in Italy at older ages, who generally face stronger barriers to entry into the labor market. The main mechanism driving the positive effect of multiple social identities points to belonging to local networks that ensure in-group favoritism and sharing of information.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Maria Rosaria Carillo","Vincenzo Lombardo","Tiziana Venittelli"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00920-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d0c40542f21d6236","title":"Gendered language and gendered violence","abstract":"This study establishes the influence of sex-based grammatical gender on gendered violence. We demonstrate a statistically significant relationship between speaking a gendered language and the incidence of intimate partner violence in a cross-section of countries. Motivated by this evidence, we conduct an individual-level analysis of the effect of speaking a gendered language on beliefs about the justifiability of intimate partner violence, controlling for a wide variety of individual level socioeconomic characteristics as well as country, religion, language family and ethnicity fixed effects. Speaking a gendered language is associated with the belief that intimate partner violence is justifiable. Our results are consistent with complementarity between the cultural and cognitive effects of language on the attitudes to intimate partner violence.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Lewis Davis","Astghik Mavisakalyan","Clas Weber"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.08.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d0cff51b438ff7f3","title":"The impact of right‐to‐work laws on long hours and work schedules","abstract":"Unions play a crucial role in determining wages and employment outcomes. However, union bargaining power may also have important effects on non‐pecuniary working conditions. We study the effects of right‐to‐work laws, which removed agency shop protection and weakened union powers on long hours and non‐standard work schedules that may adversely affect workers’ health and safety. We exploit variation in the timing of enactment across U.S. states and compare workers in bordering counties across adopting states and states that did not adopt the laws yet. Using the stacked approach to difference‐in‐differences estimates proposed by Cengiz et al. (2019), we find evidence that right‐to‐work laws increased the share of workers working long hours by 6%, while there is little evidence of an impact on hourly wages. The effects on long hours are larger in more unionized sectors (i.e., construction, manufacturing, and transportation). While the likelihood of working non‐standard hours increases for particular sectors (education and public administration), there is no evidence of a significant increase in the overall sample.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Rania Gihleb","Osea Giuntella","Jian Qi Tan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22562","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d0dc9b3a9bf94f79","title":"Partisan Bias, Economic Expectations, and Household Spending","abstract":"The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic view on future economic conditions when they are more closely affiliated with the party that controls the White House, and this tendency has increased significantly over time. Individuals report a large shift in economic expectations based on partisan affiliation after the 2008 and 2016 elections, but administrative data on spending shows no effect of these shifts on actual household spending.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Atif Mian","Amir Sufi","Nasim Khoshkhou"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01056","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d0e1b3cb54d02a62","title":"Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence","abstract":"Based on indirect utility theory, we ask consumers about the change in their incomes that would be required to offset expected price changes and buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 other countries. Aggregating responses across consumers provides an alternative, indirect measure of inflation expectations compared with conventional, direct measures, but with theoretically lower ex-post forecast errors. The survey responses show that indirect consumer inflation expectations vary based on age, gender, individual inflation experiences, and local shocks. Exploiting rich cross-sectional variation, inflation expectations increase by slightly more in response to gasoline price changes than implied by their expenditure share.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Ina Hajdini","Edward S. Knotek","John Leer","Mathieu Pedemonte","Robert W. Rich","Raphael Schoenle"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103568","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d0fd67b0915f3ce7","title":"Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions","abstract":"Dynamic covariance estimation for multivariate time series suffers from the curse of dimensionality. This renders parsimonious estimation methods essential for conducting reliable statistical inference. In this paper, the issue is addressed by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through a lower dimensional collection of latent time-varying stochastic factors. Furthermore, we apply a Normal-Gamma prior to the elements of the factor loadings matrix. This hierarchical shrinkage prior effectively pulls the factor loadings of unimportant factors towards zero, thereby increasing parsimony even more. We apply the model to simulated data as well as daily log-returns of 300 S&P 500 stocks and demonstrate the effectiveness of the shrinkage prior to obtain sparse loadings matrices and more precise correlation estimates. Moreover, we investigate predictive performance and discuss different choices for the number of latent factors. Additionally to being a stand-alone tool, the algorithm is designed to act as a \"plug and play\" extension for other MCMC samplers; it is implemented in the R package factorstochvol. (author's abstract)","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Gregor Kastner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.11.007","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-d10632e7ffd915cb","title":"Blockchain Disruption and Smart Contracts","abstract":"Blockchain technology provides decentralized consensus and potentially enlarges the contracting space through smart contracts. Meanwhile, generating decentralized consensus entails distributing information that necessarily alters the informational environment. We analyze how decentralization relates to consensus quality and how the quintessential features of blockchain remold the landscape of competition. Smart contracts can mitigate informational asymmetry and improve welfare and consumer surplus through enhanced entry and competition, yet distributing information during consensus generation may encourage greater collusion. In general, blockchains sustain market equilibria with a wider range of economic outcomes. We further discuss the implications for antitrust policies targeted at blockchain applications.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Lin William Cong","Zhiguo He"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz007","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d10c3f30cf489391","title":"Battling <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 with dysfunctional federalism: Lessons from India","abstract":"The Indian federation is highly centripetal, and historically, this has left states without the requisite legislative and fiscal authority to take independent action and initiate policies of significance. Consequently, India's response to the global COVID-19 pandemic was to impose a very severe countrywide lockdown using the mandate of the Union (federal) government. This centralized one-size-fits-all diktat was imposed despite high variations across states in resources, healthcare capacity, and incidence of COVID-19 cases. We argue that India's dysfunctional federalism is the reason for the centralized lockdown, preventing state and local governments from tailoring a policy response to suit local needs. Using mobility data, we demonstrate the high variation in curtailing mobility in different states through the centralized lockdown. We find that India's centralized lockdown was at best a partial success in a handful of states, while imposing enormous economic costs even in areas where few were affected by the pandemic.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Abishek Choutagunta","G.P. Manish","Shruti Rajagopalan"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12501","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d10ce8c1c2aa46b1","title":"The escape from hunger: The impact of food prices on well-being in Sweden, 1813–1967","abstract":"This study analyses how the standard of living for different social groups changed when Sweden developed from an agricultural to an industrial society and when the first steps towards a modern welfare society were taken. As a measure of living standards, we use the ability to overcome short-term economic stress caused by high food prices. We use individual-level longitudinal data from 1813 to 1967 for a rural/semi-urban area in southern Sweden with similar economic development, occupational structure, life expectancy and fertility to the country as a whole. We found that during the first part of the 19th century, when agriculture was reformed and grain became an export product, workers, but not farmers and other social groups, deliberately postponed births in response to rising food prices. Despite these efforts to maintain consumption, workers and their families suffered increased mortality risks during years of high food prices, indicating that they lived close to the subsistence margin and could not save to ensure consumption in bad times. In the second half of the 19th century, rising real wages improved workers’ living conditions and the mortality response to economic stress decreased. By the 20th century, as the economy progressed and welfare systems emerged, the mortality response disappeared entirely. In contrast, childbearing was still affected by economic cycles but now only during turmoil of the First World War and the 1918 influenza pandemic and not afterwards.","wordCount":231,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Tommy Bengtsson","Luciana Quaranta"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101652","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d11432de8a975aa4","title":"The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle","abstract":"Most countries have automatic rules in their tax-and-transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic fluctuations. This paper measures their effect on the dynamics of the business cycle. We put forward a model that merges the standard incomplete-markets model of consumption and inequality with the new Keynesian model of nominal rigidities and business cycles, and that includes most of the main potential stabilizers in the U.S. data and the theoretical channels by which they may work. We find that the conventional argument that stabilizing disposable income will stabilize aggregate demand plays a negligible role in the dynamics of the business cycle, whereas tax-and-transfer programs that affect inequality and social insurance can have a larger effect on aggregate volatility. However, as currently designed, the set of stabilizers in place in the U.S. has had little effect on the volatility of aggregate output fluctuations or on their welfare costs despite stabilizing aggregate consumption. The stabilizers have a more important role when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, and they affect welfare significantly through the provision of social insurance.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Alisdair McKay","Ricardo Reis"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11574","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d123f7831d01d091","title":"In medio stat victus: Labor Demand Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age","abstract":"After falling for four decades, statutory retirement ages are increasing in most OECD countries. The labor market adjustment to these reforms has not yet been thoroughly investigated by the literature. We draw on a major pension reform that took place in Italy in December 2011 that increased the retirement age by up to six years for some categories of workers. We have access to a unique dataset validated by the Italian social security administration (INPS), which identifies in each private firm, based on an administrative exam of eligibility conditions, how many workers were locked in by the sudden increase in the retirement age, and for how long. We find that firms mostly affected by the lock in are those that were downsizing even before the policy shock. The increase in the retirement age seems to displace more middle-aged workers than young workers. Furthermore, there is not a one-to-one increase in the number of older workers in the firms where some workers were locked in by the reform. We provide tentative explanations for these results, based on the interaction between retirement, employment protection legislation and liquidity constraints of firms.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Tito Boeri","Pietro Garibaldi","Espen R. Moen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00871-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d12435b422e0d0c1","title":"Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees","abstract":"Information frictions make foreign trade risky. In particular, the risk of buyer default deters firms from selling abroad. To address this issue, many countries offer export credit guarantees to provide insurance to exporters. In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of guarantees by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in Sweden and rich register data on guarantees, firms and trade. Estimates from a fuzzy regression discontinuity design show large positive effects on the probability of exporting and the value of exports to the destination for which the guarantees are issued. These results are robust to an alternative approach using a difference-in-differences matching estimator. Further findings suggest that guarantees impact firms heterogeneously and play an important role in resolving buyer default risk and easing liquidity constraints. Larger impacts are observed in non-OECD countries, on smaller, liquidity constrained exporters and for firms selling products that face a relatively high cost of buyer default.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Natasha Agarwal","Jackie M.L. Chan","Magnus Lodefalk","Aili Tang","S. Tano","Zheng Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103831","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d129b6cce756f21e","title":"The Pass‐Through of Taxes on Sugar‐Sweetened Beverages to Retail Prices: The Case of Berkeley, California","abstract":"Obesity and diet‐related chronic disease are increasing problems worldwide. In response, many governments have enacted or are considering taxes on energy‐dense foods. Perhaps the most commonly recommended policy is a tax on sugar‐sweetened beverages (SSBs). This paper estimates the extent to which a tax on SSBs is passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices. We examine the first city‐level tax on SSBs in the United States, which was enacted by the voters of Berkeley, California, in November 2014. We collected the prices of various brands and sizes of SSBs and other beverages before and after the implementation of the tax from a near‐census of convenience stores and supermarkets in Berkeley, California. We also collected prices from stores in a control city: San Francisco, where a similar voter referendum failed despite majority support. Estimates from difference‐in‐differences models indicate that, across all brands and sizes of products examined, 43.1 percent (95 percent confidence interval: 27.7 to 58.4 percent) of the Berkeley tax was passed on to consumers. The estimates also are consistent with cross‐border shopping. For each mile of distance between the store and the closest store selling untaxed SSBs, pass‐through rose 33.3 percent for 2 L bottles and 25.8 percent for 12‐packs of 12 ounce cans.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["John Cawley","David Frisvold"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21960","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d12d112180d41fa9","title":"Inefficient international risk-sharing","abstract":"If the wealth effect on labor supply is absent or Home and Foreign goods are Edgeworth complements, welfare reversals do not occur. Complete financial markets are widely believed to be beneficial for the international economy, since they enable cross-country risk-sharing. Using a two-country New Keynesian model , we show that this is not the case if the source of income fluctuations is a country-specific markup shock. When preferences involve the wealth effect on labor supply and imply that Home and Foreign goods are Edgeworth substitutes, the absence of risk-sharing in autarky acts like a favorable markup shock, reducing the variability of relative inflation and output gaps created by the shock. Thus, welfare can be higher under autarky than under complete financial markets, indicating that international risk-sharing can be undesirable. However, if the wealth effect on labor supply is absent or Home and Foreign goods are Edgeworth complements, welfare reversals do not occur.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Daeha Cho","Kwang Hwan Kim","Suk Joon Kim"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.04.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d13f6674b61276ee","title":"Electric and plug‐in hybrid vehicle demand: Lessons for an emerging market","abstract":"Understanding demand in the new plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle ( PHEV ) market is critical to designing more effective adoption policies. We use stated preference data from an innovative choice experiment to estimate demand for PHEVs relative to battery electric vehicles ( BEVs ) and to explore heterogeneity in demand for these vehicles. We find the gap between willingness to pay for PHEVs and their price premium over conventional vehicles is on the order of current subsidies, while that of BEVs is an order of magnitude larger. We use a latent class model to show PHEVs draw a different consumer segment into the market.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Tamara L. Sheldon","J.R. DeShazo","Richard T. Carson"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12416","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d150c569afab924a","title":"The impact of team-based primary care on health care services utilization and costs: Quebec’s family medicine groups","abstract":"We investigate the effects on health care costs and utilization of team-based primary care delivery: Quebec's Family Medicine Groups (FMGs). FMGs include extended hours, patient enrolment and multidisciplinary teams, but they maintain the same remuneration scheme (fee-for-service) as outside FMGs. In contrast to previous studies, we examine the impacts of organizational changes in primary care settings in the absence of changes to provider payment and outside integrated care systems. We built a panel of administrative data of the population of elderly and chronically ill patients, characterizing all individuals as FMG enrollees or not. Participation in FMGs is voluntary and we address potential selection bias by matching on GP propensity scores, using inverse probability of treatment weights at the patient level, and then estimating difference-in-differences models. We also use appropriate modelling strategies to account for the distributions of health care cost and utilization data. We find that FMGs significantly decrease patients' health care services utilization and costs in outpatient settings relative to patients not in FMGs. The number of primary care visits decreased by 11% per patient per year among FMG enrolees and specialist visits declined by 6%. The declines in costs were of roughly equal magnitude. We found no evidence of an effect on hospitalizations, their associated costs, or the costs of ED visits. These results provide support for the idea that primary care organizational reforms can have impacts on the health care system in the absence of changes to physician payment mechanisms. The extent to which the decline in GP visits represents substitution with other primary care providers warrants further investigation.","wordCount":262,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Erin Strumpf","Mehdi Ammi","Mamadou Diop","Julie Fiset-Laniel","Pierre Tousignant"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.06.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d1525d958bac0d7f","title":"The global minimum tax","abstract":"This paper studies how the global minimum tax shapes national tax policies and welfare in a formal model of international tax competition with heterogeneous countries. The net welfare effect is generally ambiguous from the perspective of non-havens. On the one hand, the global minimum tax raises their welfare by curbing profit shifting, which boosts government revenue. One the other hand, it lowers their welfare by increasing equilibrium tax rates in havens, which transfers resources from non-haven firms to haven governments. The net welfare effect is unambiguously positive when the global minimum rate is so high that profit shifting ends.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Niels Johannesen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104709","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d15a3418759ca1d5","title":"Untitled Land, Occupational Choice, and Agricultural Productivity","abstract":"The prevalence of untitled land in poor countries helps explain the international agricultural productivity differences. Since untitled land cannot be traded across farmers, it creates land misallocation and distorts individuals' occupational choice between farming and working outside agriculture. I build a two-sector general equilibrium model to quantify the impact of untitled land. I find that economies with higher percentages of untitled land would have lower agricultural productivity; land titling can increase agricultural productivity by up to 82.5 percent. About 42 percent of this gain is due to eliminating land misallocation, and the remaining is due to eliminating distortions in individuals' occupational choice.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Chaoran Chen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140171","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d15bd5d880f8909c","title":"Environmental performance, corruption and economic growth: global evidence using a new data set","abstract":"This study investigates the relationship between environmental performance, corruption and economic growth using panel data of 87 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2012. The Environmental Performance Index is used for the first time to evaluate the environmental quality on economic growth. By employing both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’ panel models, we find that environmental performance is positively related to economic growth and is more significant in non-Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) countries. Moreover, when corruption is incorporated, the empirical estimation results indicate that although lower corruption helps economic growth in non-OECD countries, the negative coefficients of the three interactive terms show that the positive effect of environment performance on economic growth will drop, while greater environmental performance combined with natural resource abundance inevitably leads to inefficient bureaucracies and hence disadvantageous economic growth. As a result, policymakers in non-OECD countries should carefully ensure better government quality when they exhibit strong environmental performance so as to avoid any disadvantageous impact upon economic growth.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Chun‐Ping Chang","Yu Hao"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1200186","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d160725c3a29dcc3","title":"Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion","abstract":"Increasingly, algorithms are supplanting human decision-makers in pricing goods and services. To analyze the possible consequences, we study experimentally the behavior of algorithms powered by Artificial Intelligence (Q-learning) in a workhorse oligopoly model of repeated price competition. We find that the algorithms consistently learn to charge supracompetitive prices, without communicating with one another. The high prices are sustained by collusive strategies with a finite phase of punishment followed by a gradual return to cooperation. This finding is robust to asymmetries in cost or demand, changes in the number of players, and various forms of uncertainty.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Emilio Calvano","Giacomo Calzolari","Vincenzo Denicolò","Sergio Pastorello"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190623","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d167c4b70e927a96","title":"The pass‐through of beer taxes to prices: Evidence from state and federal tax changes","abstract":"From a policy perspective, it is crucial to understand how changes in beer taxes affect retail beer prices. This study provides new evidence of the pass‐through rate of state beer taxes to prices in a post‐merger era. Our estimates that use state‐level beer tax changes suggest that a 10‐cent increase in beer taxes raises retail prices by about 17 cents. Comparable findings from the 1991 federal beer tax increase show a rise in retail beer prices of 19–22 cents. Our findings suggest that consumers fully bear the burden of increased beer taxes.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Vinish Shrestha","Sara Markowitz"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12343","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d16a67477f6944dc","title":"Do Fiscal Rules Matter?","abstract":"Fiscal rules are laws aimed at reducing the incentive to accumulate debt, and many countries adopt them to discipline local governments. Yet, their effectiveness is disputed because of commitment and enforcement problems. We study their impact applying a quasi-experimental design in Italy. In 1999, the central government imposed fiscal rules on municipal governments, and in 2001 relaxed them below 5,000 inhabitants. We exploit the before/after and discontinuous policy variation, and show that relaxing fiscal rules increases deficits and lowers taxes. The effect is larger if the mayor can be reelected, the number of parties is higher, and voters are older.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Veronica Grembi","Tommaso Nannicini","Ugo Troiano"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150076","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d1748e9bbf206ac4","title":"Emigration, remittances, and the subjective well-being of those staying behind","abstract":"We offer the first global perspective on the well-being consequences of emigration for those staying behind using several subjective well-being measures (evaluations of best possible life, positive affect, stress, and depression). Using the Gallup World Poll data for 114 countries during 2009-2011, we find that having family members abroad is associated with greater evaluative well-being and positive affect, and receiving remittances is linked with further increases in evaluative well-being, especially in poorer contexts-both across and within countries. We also document that having household members abroad is linked with increased stress and depression, which are not offset by remittances. The out-migration of family members appears less traumatic in countries where migration is more common, indicating that people in such contexts might be able to cope better with separation. Overall, subjective well-being measures, which reflect both material and non-material aspects of life, furnish additional insights and a well-rounded picture of the consequences of emigration on migrant family members staying behind relative to standard outcomes employed in the literature, such as the left-behind's consumption, income, or labor market outcomes.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Artjoms Ivļevs","Milena Nikolova","Carol Graham"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0718-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d1909ad730057d03","title":"The Marginal Cost of Traffic Congestion and Road Pricing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Beijing","abstract":"Severe traffic congestion is ubiquitous in large urban centers. This paper provides the first causal estimate of the relationship between traffic density and speed and optimal congestion charges using real-time fine-scale traffic data in Beijing. The identification relies on plausibly exogenous variation in traffic density induced by Beijing’s driving restriction policy. Optimal congestion charges range from 5 to 39 cents per km depending on time and location. Road pricing would increase traffic speed by 11 percent within the city center and lead to an annual welfare gain of ¥1.5 billion from reduced congestion and revenue of ¥10.5 billion.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Jun Yang","Avralt-Od Purevjav","Shanjun Li"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170195","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d19aabc9adad2835","title":"The importance of fear: investor sentiment and stock market returns","abstract":"The presence of investor sentiment pushes asset prices away from the equilibrium level justified by underlying fundamentals. While sentiment is not directly observable, identifying appropriate proxies and, quantifying the impact of sentiment on asset prices is an important topic. Asset prices that do not appropriately reflect fundamental values may result in inefficient allocation of capital – impacting portfolio allocation decisions and the cost of capital. Utilizing a number of sentiment proxies, over the period 1990–2015, we demonstrate a strong relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns that is consistent with theoretical explanations of sentiment. We determine that implied volatility index (VIX) is the preferred measure of sentiment in terms of improving model fit and adding explanatory power. Causality tests suggest that investor fear (VIX) drives returns across firm-size and value, and also across industry. We also illustrate that firms that are more subjective to value, or face limits to arbitrage, such as small-cap stocks, or those in the business equipment (technology) or telecoms industry, are most responsive to changes investor sentiment. Finally, we demonstrate that sentiment has a greater influence on market returns during recession, when sentiment is at its lowest ebb, and this is particularly true for those stocks most susceptible to speculative demand.","wordCount":205,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Lee A. Smales"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1259754","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d1af1d1dfd8a1712","title":"Cryptocurrencies and momentum","abstract":"Retrieving a set of 143 cryptocurrencies for a sample spanning 2014–2018, we investigate the popular momentum strategy implemented in the cryptocurrency market. Contrary to earlier studies our findings do not indicate any evidence of significant momentum payoffs, supporting the view that the cryptocurrency market is far more efficient than suggested in earlier studies.","wordCount":53,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Klaus Grobys","Niranjan Sapkota"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.03.028","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d1b0c48715fb5685","title":"How to measure the liquidity of cryptocurrency markets?","abstract":"This paper investigates the efficacy of low-frequency transactions-based liquidity measures to describe actual (high-frequency) liquidity. We show that the Corwin and Schultz (2012) and Abdi and Ranaldo (2017) estimators outperform other measures in describing time-series variations, irrespective of the observation frequency, trading venue, high-frequency liquidity benchmark, and cryptocurrency. Both measures perform well during high and low return, volatility and volume periods. The Kyle and Obizhaeva (2016) estimator and the Amihud (2002) illiquidity ratio outperform when estimating liquidity levels. These two estimators also reliably identify liquidity differences between trading venues. Overall, the results suggest that there is not yet a universally bestmeasure but there are reasonably good low-frequency measures.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Alexander Brauneis","Roland Mestel","Ryan Riordan","Erik Theissen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.106041","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d1b3b85bd1fc25ff","title":"Data provision to an informed seller","abstract":"A monopoly seller is privately and imperfectly informed about the buyer's value of the product. A designer can provide the seller with additional information, which the seller uses to price discriminate the buyer. We demonstrate the difficulty of screening the seller's information: When the buyer's value is binary, no combination of buyer surplus and seller profit can be implemented other than those achieved by providing the same information to all seller types. We use the result to characterize the set of implementable welfare outcomes and demonstrate the trade-off between buyer surplus and efficiency.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Shota Ichihashi","Alex Smolin"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.06.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d1b4ef8e2c222aed","title":"Passive vertical integration and strategic delegation","abstract":"With backward acquisitions in their efficient supplier, downstream firms profitably internalize the effects of their actions on their rivals' sales, while upstream competition is also relaxed. Downstream prices increase with passive, yet decrease with controlling acquisition. Passive acquisition is profitable when controlling acquisition is not. Downstream acquirers strategically abstain from vertical control, thus delegating commitment to the supplier, and with it high input prices, allowing them to charge high downstream prices. The effects of passive backward acquisition are reinforced with the acquisition by several downstream firms in the efficient supplier. The results are sustained when suppliers charge two‐part tariffs.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Matthias Hunold","Konrad Stahl"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12158","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d1dd4bf036e454c6","title":"Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885–2008: Evidence from eight countries","abstract":"Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been absent from recent debates about comparative long-run growth owing to the lack of data on aggregate economic performance before 1950. This paper provides estimates of GDP per capita on an annual basis for eight Anglophone African economies for the period since 1885, raising new questions about previous characterizations of the region's economic performance. The new data show that many of these economies had levels of per capita income which were above subsistence by the early twentieth century, on a par with the largest economies in Asia until the 1980s. However, overall improvements in GDP per capita were limited by episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, the scale and scope of which can be measured through annual data.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Stephen Broadberry","Leigh Gardner"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101424","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d1e28e70628f75aa","title":"Crowdfunding and social influence: an empirical investigation","abstract":"The literature so far provides no in-depth investigation of the determinants of decisions to contribute to crowdfunding platforms. The present article draws on work measuring the decisions and prosocial behaviours of individuals in relation to public goods, and uses survey data on crowdfunding behaviour. We surveyed an original sample of individuals in France to explore individual decisions and amounts of funding chosen to support a creative project. We show that in non-equity crowdfunding contributing money is associated with altruism. Our findings suggest that the ‘warm glow’ effect influences the level of the contribution; we show also those monetary incentives could ‘crowd out’ the decisions to contribute of crowdfunders. Our study has some implications for business strategy since understanding why people contribute adds to our knowledge about the incentives that might encourage them to increase their contributions, and allows predictions about how changes to how crowdfunding platforms are managed might affect individual incentives to give.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Grazia Cecere","Fabrice Le Guel","Fabrice Rochelandet"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1343450","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d1e83a8ba9679843","title":"Self-Image and Willful Ignorance in Social Decisions","abstract":"Avoiding information about adverse welfare consequences of self-interested decisions, or willful ignorance, is an important source of socially harmful behavior. To understand this issue, we analyze a Bayesian signaling model of an agent who cares about self-image and has the opportunity to learn the social benefits of a personally costly action. We show that willful ignorance can serve as an excuse for selfish behavior by obfuscating the signal about the decision-maker's preferences, and help maintain the idea that the agent would have acted virtuously under full information. We derive several behavioral predictions that are inconsistent with either outcome-based preferences or socialimage concern and conduct experiments to test them. Our findings, as well as a number of previous experimental results, offer support for these predictions and thus, the broader theory of self-signaling.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Zachary Grossman","Joël J. van der Weele"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw001","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d1f02e232458e5b1","title":"Backlash: The Unintended Effects of Language Prohibition in U.S. Schools after World War I","abstract":"Do forced assimilation policies always succeed in integrating immigrant groups? This article examines how a specific assimilation policy—language restrictions in elementary school—affects integration and identification with the host country later in life. After World War I, several U.S. states barred the German language from their schools. Affected individuals were less likely to volunteer in World War II and more likely to marry within their ethnic group and to choose decidedly German names for their offspring. Rather than facilitating the assimilation of immigrant children, the policy instigated a backlash, heightening the sense of cultural identity among the minority.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Vasiliki Fouka"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2057176124c9cf6","title":"Aging, retirement, and pay-as-you-go pensions","abstract":"In this paper, we consider the effects of population aging on a pay-as-you-go financed defined contributions pension scheme. We show that when retirement decisions are endogenous, aging increases the retirement age and the steady-state level of capital. The effect on pension payouts is in general ambiguous, except for the solution of full retirement, when this effect is unambiguously negative.","wordCount":59,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Giam Pietro Cipriani"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000651","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2151a14a156d9c0","title":"Does Weather Sharpen Income Inequality in Russia?","abstract":"Using subnational panel data, this paper analyzes how hot and cold extreme temperatures and precipitation affect economic activity and income distribution in Russia. We account for the intensity of exposure to extreme temperatures by analyzing the impacts of both single and consecutive days with extreme temperature, i.e., heat waves and cold spells, and examine several labor market channels behind those effects. We find that consecutive extremely hot days decrease regional GDP per capita but do not affect income inequality. Poor regions are affected by extreme temperatures relatively more than rich regions. These effects occur because of reallocation of labor from employment to unemployment, an increase in prices in poor regions, and to some extent because of changes in the industrial employment structure, while relative wages are not affected. Extremely cold days, both single and consecutive, as well as extreme precipitation have a limited impact on economic activity and income distribution.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Vladimir Otrachshenko","Olga Popova"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12532","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d229d7d0ea21112e","title":"Does publicly subsidized health insurance affect the birth rate?","abstract":"The affordable care act (ACA) greatly expanded subsidized health insurance opportunities for low‐income childless women through Medicaid and the Marketplace. This insurance provides better access to prescription‐based contraception, which could reduce the number of births. At the same time, it lowers childbirth costs for women who previously would not have qualified for Medicaid‐paid pregnancies. I examine how Medicaid and non‐Medicaid subsidized insurance (NMSI) eligibility have impacted insurance enrollment and the birth rate for childless women from 2011 through 2016 using the American Community Survey and birth information from the Vital Statistics. To estimate the causal effects of subsidized insurance, I use simulated eligibility to utilize variation in the timing and income eligibility thresholds for Medicaid, the Marketplace, and other pre‐ACA state subsidized insurance programs. My results indicate expanding Medicaid had no significant effect on the birth rate, but that a 10 percentage point increase in NMSI eligibility increased the birth rate between 1.60 and 2.30%, depending on the age group. These findings indicate that expanding Medicaid to childless adults did not produce cost savings from fewer Medicaid paid births, but improvements in the nongroup insurance market increased births.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Makayla Palmer"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12436","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d22ab33ac13278e0","title":"International Shocks, Variable Markups, and Domestic Prices","abstract":"How strong are strategic complementarities in price setting across firms? In this article, we provide a direct empirical estimate of firms’ price responses to changes in competitor prices. We develop a general theoretical framework and an empirical identification strategy, taking advantage of a new micro-level dataset for the Belgian manufacturing sector. We find strong evidence of strategic complementarities, with a typical firm adjusting its price with an elasticity of 0.4 in response to its competitors’ price changes and with an elasticity of 0.6 in response to its own cost shocks. Furthermore, we find evidence of substantial heterogeneity in these elasticities across firms. Small firms exhibit no strategic complementarities in price setting and complete cost pass-through. In contrast, large firms exhibit strong strategic complementarities, responding to both competitor price changes and their own cost shocks with roughly equal elasticities of around 0.5. We show that this pattern of heterogeneity in markup variability across firms is important for explaining the aggregate markup response to international shocks and the observed low exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Mary Amiti","Oleg Itskhoki","Jozef Konings"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz005","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d24cd57f4c307160","title":"Abandon ship? Party brands and politicians' responses to a political scandal","abstract":"Political scandals often trigger responses from voters and the implicated politicians. In this article, we extend the analysis to politicians who are only indirectly affected by a scandal through their affiliation with the involved party. Overcoming endogeneity concerns by analyzing the local implications of the largest national scandal in recent Italian history (“Clean Hands”), our main results show that local politicians withdraw support from incumbents in parties hit by Clean Hands – inducing early government dissolutions in such municipalities. Consistent with these municipality-level findings, we then illustrate that local politicians from the implicated parties exhibit lower re-running rates and higher rates of party switching in the short term. In the medium term, we find that corruption and voter turnout are lower in competitive municipalities ‘treated’ with a mayor from the implicated parties during Clean Hands. Moreover, medium-term upward career mobility of local politicians from the implicated parties benefited from party switching.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Gianmarco Daniele","Sergio Galletta","Benny Geys"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104172","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d254056c7e323647","title":"Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality","abstract":"We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the U.S. wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from jobs for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education wage differentials between 1980 and 2016. The negative relationship between wage changes and task displacement is unaffected when we control for changes in market power, deunionization, and other forms of capital deepening and technology unrelated to automation. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of automation, which incorporate induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects due to task reallocation across different groups. Our quantitative evaluation explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand‐in‐hand with modest productivity gains.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Pascual Restrepo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta19815","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d257ca428e7649d5","title":"Changing local customs: The long run impacts of Christian missions on female genital cutting in Africa","abstract":"We investigate the long-run impacts of Christian missions on female genital cutting (FGC) in Africa. Our empirical analysis draws on historical data on the locations of early European missions geographically matched with Demographic and Health Survey data on FGC practices of around 410,000 respondents from 42 surveys performed over a 30-year period in 14 African countries. We use ethnographic data on pre-colonial FGC to show that the location of missions was not correlated with the practice of FGC in the local population. Our benchmark estimates imply that a person living 10 km from a historical mission is 4–6 percentage points less likely to have undergone FGC than someone living 100 km from a mission site. Similarly, an additional mission per 1000 km2 in one's ancestral ethnic homeland decreases the probability of having undergone FGC by around 8 percentage points. The effect is robust to numerous specifications and control variables.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Heather Congdon Fors","Ann‐Sofie Isaksson","Annika Lindskog"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103180","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d2642a0819369ce6","title":"The equilibrium-value convergence for the multiple-partners game","abstract":"We study the assignment game (Shapley and Shubik, 1972) and its generalization of the multiple-partners game (Sotomayor, 1992), the simplest many-to-many extension. Our main result is that the Shapley value of a replicated multiple-partners game converges to a competitive equilibrium payoff when the number of replicas tends to infinity. The result also holds for a large subclass of semivalues since we prove that they converge to the same value as the replica becomes large. Furthermore, in supermodular and monotonic assignment games, the asymptotic Shapley value coincides with the mean stable imputation. The proof of our theorem relies on Hall's theorem.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Chenghong Luo","David Pérez‐Castrillo","Chaoran Sun"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105870","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d26bb7d005fc2212","title":"How cheap talk in climate disclosures relates to climate initiatives, corporate emissions, and reputation risk","abstract":"Navigating the complex landscape of corporate climate disclosures and their real impacts is crucial for managing climate-related financial risks. However, current disclosures oftentimes suffer from imprecision, inaccuracy, and greenwashing. We introduce ClimateBert CTI, a deep learning algorithm, to identify climate-related cheap talk in MSCI World index firms’ annual reports. We find that only targeted climate engagement is associated with less cheap talk. Voluntary climate disclosures are associated with more cheap talk. Moreover, cheap talk correlates with increased negative news coverage and higher emissions growth. Hence, cheap talk helps assess climate initiatives’ effectiveness and anticipate reputation and transition risk exposure.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Julia Bingler","Mathias Kraus","Markus Leippold","Nicolas Webersinke"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107191","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d270714b7abb0107","title":"Repositioning and market power after airline mergers","abstract":"We estimate a model of route‐level competition between airlines who choose whether to offer nonstop or connecting service before setting prices. Airlines have full information about all quality, marginal cost, and fixed cost unobservables throughout the game, so that service choices will be selected on these residuals. We conduct merger simulations that allow for repositioning and account for the selection implied by the model and the data. Accounting for selection materially affects the predicted likelihood of repositioning and the predicted magnitude of post‐merger price changes, and it allows us to match what has been observed after consummated mergers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Sophia Li","Joe Mazur","Yongjoon Park","James W. Roberts","Andrew Sweeting","Jun Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12404","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d27f89f101b60af0","title":"Procurement Design with Corruption","abstract":"I investigate the design of optimal procurement mechanisms in the presence of corruption. After contracting with the sponsor, the contractor may bribe the inspector to misrepresent quality. The mechanism affects whether bribery occurs. I discuss the cases of both fixed and variable (with the size of misrepresentation) bribes, and also uncertainty about the bribe amount. In all cases, the optimal contract curtails quality for low efficiency contractors but also for the most efficient contractors. I also present models of bribe negotiations whose reduced form coincide with the model analyzed in the paper, and discuss implementation and the effect of competition.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Roberto Burguet"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150105","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d290a81807d70250","title":"The unintended consequences of confinement: Evidence from the rural area in Guatemala","abstract":"Individual and social preferences have shown to be important factors in individual decision making and general economic performance. Yet, they are usually assumed as given and stable, underestimating their impact in the rhythm of economic recovery after a natural disaster or pandemic. This paper examines the effects of COVID-19 initial confinement on households’ individual and social preferences across small communities in the rural area of Guatemala. We use a comprehensive panel household survey of agricultural smallholders collected during two survey rounds in 2019, prior to the pandemic, and 2020 and find that preferences generally shifted following the onset of the pandemic. We observe a significant increase in risk tolerance, deteriorated perceptions towards trust and generosity, and a higher frequency of emotional issues, while intra-household relationships remain stable. We find that experiencing a household adverse situation, a higher degree of exposure to the virus, and more stringent local confinement measures shaped several of the variations in preferences. The focus of the study on a region with high poverty and malnutrition rates offers important insights of the consequences of confinement on perceptions and attitudes in complex and vulnerable rural contexts during the wake of a public health emergency.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["José Gabriel Castillo","Manuel A. Hernandez"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102587","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d291cd31491c303f","title":"Measuring higher order ambiguity preferences","abstract":"We report the results from an experiment designed to measure attitudes towards ambiguity beyond ambiguity aversion. In particular, we implement recently-proposed model-free preference conditions of ambiguity prudence and ambiguity temperance. Ambiguity prudence has been shown to play an important role in precautionary behavior and the mere presence of ambiguity averse agents in markets. We observe that the majority of individuals' decisions are consistent with ambiguity aversion, ambiguity prudence and ambiguity temperance. This finding confirms the prediction of many popular (specifications of) ambiguity models and has important implications for models of prevention behavior.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Aurélien Baillon","Harris Schlesinger","Gijs van de Kuilen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9542-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d29a1e4060f9be18","title":"Spatial Procurement of Farm Products and the Supply of Processed Foods: Application to the Tomato Processing Industry","abstract":"Increased transportation and logistical costs in agricultural markets have affected the spatial allocation of production in the agricultural and food sectors of the economy. We develop a spatial model of farm product procurement by a food processor, which is designed to capture the effects of supply-chain disruptions on the spatial procurement of farm products in the processed food sector. We use detailed data on production and procurement from a large California tomato processor to estimate the key parameters of the model, which allow us to calculate the price elasticity of supply for California tomato paste production and describe how changes in energy prices and transportation costs for primary agricultural products affect the supply of processed food.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Stephen F. Hamilton","Scott Kjorlien","Ethan Ligon","Aric P. Shafran"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-023-09939-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d2a14ebe3b809d5b","title":"Patient cost-sharing, socioeconomic status, and children's health care utilization","abstract":"This paper estimates the effect of cost-sharing on the demand for children's and adolescents' use of medical care. We use a large population-wide registry dataset including detailed information on contacts with the health care system as well as family income. Two different estimation strategies are used: regression discontinuity design exploiting age thresholds above which fees are charged, and difference-in-differences models exploiting policy changes. We also estimate combined regression discontinuity difference-in-differences models that take into account discontinuities around age thresholds caused by factors other than cost-sharing. We find that when care is free of charge, individuals increase their number of doctor visits by 5-10%. Effects are similar in middle childhood and adolescence, and are driven by those from low-income families. The differences across income groups cannot be explained by other factors that correlate with income, such as maternal education.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Anton Nilsson","Paul J. Alexander"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.03.006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2a3ec5095529efd","title":"Apple's agency model and the role of most‐favored‐nation clauses","abstract":"The agency model used by Apple and other digital platforms delegates retail‐pricing decisions to upstream content providers subject to a fixed revenue‐sharing rule. Given competition both upstream and downstream, we consider how, under the agency model, retail prices depend on the firms' revenue‐sharing splits and the degrees to which consumers view the platforms and the goods sold on the platforms to be substitutes. We show that the agency model may not be universally adopted even if adoption would mean higher profits for all firms. Use of most‐favored‐nation clauses in these settings can ensure industry‐wide adoption and increase retail prices.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Øystein Foros","Hans Jarle Kind","Greg Shaffer"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12195","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2a7c04e478c7891","title":"Quantile Selection Models With an Application to Understanding Changes in Wage Inequality","abstract":"We propose a method to correct for sample selection in quantile regression models. Selection is modeled via the cumulative distribution function, or copula, of the percentile error in the outcome equation and the error in the participation decision. Copula parameters are estimated by minimizing a method‐of‐moments criterion. Given these parameter estimates, the percentile levels of the outcome are readjusted to correct for selection, and quantile parameters are estimated by minimizing a rotated “check” function. We apply the method to correct wage percentiles for selection into employment, using data for the UK for the period 1978–2000. We also extend the method to account for the presence of equilibrium effects when performing counterfactual exercises.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Manuel Arellano","Stéphane Bonhomme"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14030","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2c0c5e4af97be8e","title":"Spillover effects of nudges","abstract":"We consider a theoretical model where an individual pays limited attention to decision relevant factors. Nudges increase attention to a factor, but can have, at the same time, attentional spillover effects to other factors. As a consequence, nudges can have detrimental effects on desired behavior and consumption utility. Further, measuring behavioral changes in the nudged domain sometimes does not yield the right conclusions about the effects of the nudge on utility — even with an additive separable utility function.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Julia Nafziger"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109086","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2c2621dba631273","title":"Extended Gravity","abstract":"Exporting firms often enter foreign markets that are similar to their previous export destinations. We develop a dynamic model in which a firm’s exports in a market may depend on how similar the market is to the firm’s home country (gravity) and to its previous export destinations (extended gravity). Given the large number of export paths from which forward-looking firms may choose, we use a moment inequality approach to estimate our model. Our estimates indicate that sharing similarities with a prior export destination in terms of geographic location, language, and income per capita jointly reduces the cost of foreign market entry by 69–90%. Reductions due to geographic location (25–38%) and language (29–36%) have the largest effect. Extended gravity thus has a large impact on export entry costs.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Eduardo Morales","Gloria Sheu","Andrés Zahler"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz007","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2d8eadda56b5a00","title":"Time-Varying Risk Premium in Large Cross-Sectional Equity Data Sets","abstract":"We develop an econometric methodology to infer the path of risk premia from a large unbalanced panel of individual stock returns. We estimate the time-varying risk premia implied by conditional linear asset pricing models where the conditioning includes both instruments common to all assets and asset-specific instruments. The estimator uses simple weighted two-pass cross-sectional regressions, and we show its consistency and asymptotic normality under increasing cross-sectional and time series dimensions. We address consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance by hard thresholding, and testing for asset pricing restrictions induced by the no-arbitrage assumption. We derive the restrictions given by a continuum of assets in a multi-period economy under an approximate factor structure robust to asset repackaging. The empirical analysis on returns for about ten thousand U.S. stocks from July 1964 to December 2009 shows that risk premia are large and volatile in crisis periods. They exhibit large positive and negative strays from time-invariant estimates, follow the macroeconomic cycles, and do not match risk premia estimates on standard sets of portfolios. The asset pricing restrictions are rejected for a conditional four-factor model capturing market, size, value, and momentum effects.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Patrick Gagliardini","Elisa Ossola","Olivier Scaillet"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta11069","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d2e3d6800ac79cf1","title":"The effects of national culture on corporate social responsibility disclosure: a cross-country comparison","abstract":"This article presents a cross-country analysis of the influence of national culture on corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure. We analyse the relationship between the Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and the sustainability disclosure with the GDP per capita (GDPPC) of 44 countries, using panel data with information based on the Global Reporting Initiative guidelines. The governance effectiveness and the foreign direct investment are also included in the analysis. The results show that in countries with higher GDPPC, the CSR disclosure is negatively related to individualism and masculinity and positively related to uncertainty avoidance and indulgence. When focusing in countries with lower GDPPC, the results suggest that CSR disclosure is negatively related to power distance and positively related to uncertainty avoidance. Moreover, five of the six Hofstede’s cultural dimensions negatively affect sustainability disclosure in countries with middle GDPPC.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Maria Ortiz","Carlos Peraita"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1412082","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-d2eab349aeefef06","title":"The politics of late late development in renewable energy sectors: Dependency and contradictory tensions in India’s National Solar Mission","abstract":"Renewable energy investments are expanding across the world at an astonishing rate. The United States and Europe obtained early advantages in renewable energy technologies. However, East Asian late industrializers have now extended substantial support to domestic renewable energy manufacturing firms alongside encouraging increased deployment of renewable energy projects. In the solar energy sector, Chinese companies now dominate global production of solar cells and panels. Other developing countries, in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, have lagged in their support to manufacturing segments of renewable energy sectors. Yet many countries still aim to promote domestic production of solar panels and cells though such priorities are often secondary to increasing deployment of solar power projects. This paper argues that India's position as a late, late industrializer in the sector, combined with prevailing domestic political economy pressures, have made it extremely difficult to promote the manufacturing of solar panels and cells. The strategy of prioritising increasing installed capacity of solar energy while also attracting lower energy tariffs appears incompatible with the goal of increasing domestic manufacturing capacity. Initially established in 2010 and ramped up after Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, India's National Solar Mission (NSM) has received widespread praise for increasing the country's installed solar energy capacity and for attracting tariffs of Rs. 2.44 per unit (a reduction of 80% within the last six years). However, domestic manufacturing has received limited support, especially after the United States launched a complaint against the NSM's domestic content requirements, requiring energy developers to procure domestically-produced panels on specific projects. In 2018, the Indian government chose to refocus its attention on supporting manufacturers. However, the government chose a strategy that prioritised retaining a low minimum tariff on projects while increasing protection against imported panels, thereby forcing developers to buy panels at a higher cost. Since then, bidding processes have slowed down, highlighting the incompatibility of these goals. India's case shows that countries that fail to integrate a strategic focus on manufacturing in their renewable energy expansion strategies from the onset may remain dependent on foreign imports of renewable energy technologies in the long-term. Late late development without adequate attention to industrial policy in renewable energy sectors will inevitably cement a green division of labour, with most of the Global South locked in dependency on American, European and East Asian technologies.","wordCount":384,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Pritish Behuria"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104726","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d2f4f21e0f9131b3","title":"Perceived game uncertainty, suspense and the demand for sport","abstract":"This study tries bridging between different behavioral economic explanations for the lack of support of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in spectator sports. We test a measure of perceived game uncertainty that is comparable to objective measures frequently tested in the literature. Econometric results suggest that fans do not perceive closeness of a game differently than how economists have tended to measure it. However, fans' perceptions of suspensefulness are distinct from their perceptions of game uncertainty. Moreover, the finding that fans' preferences for game uncertainty are dominated by loss aversion also emerges—independently of fanship status—in our stated‐preference setting.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Tim Pawlowski","Georgios Nalbantis","Dennis Coates"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12462","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d2f642c5937c179f","title":"The construction of national identities","abstract":"This paper explores the dynamics of nation‐building policies and the conditions under which a state can promote a shared national identity on its territory. A forward‐looking central government that internalizes identity dynamics shapes them by choosing the level of state centralization. Homogenization attempts are constrained by political unrest, electoral competition and the intergenerational transmission of identities within the family. We find nation‐building efforts are generally characterized by fast interventions. We show that a zero‐sum conflict over resources pushes long‐run dynamics toward homogeneous steady states and extreme levels of (de)centralization. We also find the ability to foster a common identity is highly dependent on initial conditions, and that country‐specific historical factors can have a lasting impact on the long‐run distribution of identities.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Milena Almagro","David Andrés‐Cerezo"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3040","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-d30738c6aab32b00","title":"The limits of limitless debt","abstract":"While low real interest rates and issuing public debt in fiat money safeguard against rising sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios, evidence shows that high debt often precedes default, and credit spreads may not signal imminent risk. We offer a simple way to model the trade-offs. On the one hand, it acknowledges that large debt overhangs tend to raise default risks. On the other hand, it allows sovereigns to roll over debt regardless of long-term fiscal solvency. The combination allows credit spreads to stay very low for decades, eventually spiral out of control and trigger a default. Hence, neither the reassurance of low spreads nor the alarm from growing overhang should automatically prevail. To illustrate the trade-offs, we review the ebb and flow of US sovereign debt burdens since World War II. Between record peacetime debt-to-GDP ratios and weakened fiscal discipline, an exemplary double-or-triple-A credit rating for the US no longer seems justified. Moreover, the current outlook is poor, with debt growing much faster than GDP and scant prospects of contraction.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Kent Osband","Valerio Filoso","Salvatore Capasso"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103567","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d319c70c5d269d1a","title":"Making the Anscombe-Aumann approach to ambiguity suitable for descriptive applications","abstract":"The Anscombe-Aumann (AA) model, originally introduced to give a normative basis to expected utility, is nowadays mostly used for another purpose: to analyze deviations from expected utility due to ambiguity (unknown probabilities). The AA model makes two ancillary assumptions that do not refer to ambiguity: expected utility for risk and backward induction. These assumptions, even if normatively appropriate, fail descriptively. This paper relaxes these ancillary assumptions to avoid the descriptive violations, while maintaining AA’s convenient mixture operation. Thus, it becomes possible to test and apply all AA-based ambiguity theories descriptively while avoiding confounds due to violated ancillary assumptions. The resulting tests use only simple stimuli, avoiding noise due to complexity. We demonstrate the latter in a simple experiment where we find that three assumptions about ambiguity, commonly made in AA theories, are violated: reference independence, universal ambiguity aversion, and weak certainty independence. The second, theoretical, part of the paper accommodates the violations found for the first ambiguity theory in the AA model—Schmeidler’s CEU theory—by introducing and axiomatizing a reference dependent generalization. That is, we extend the AA ambiguity model to prospect theory.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Stefan T. Trautmann","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9273-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d322974d158e474d","title":"Place-based policies, structural change and female labor: Evidence from India’s Special Economic Zones","abstract":"This paper quantifies the local economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) established in India between 2005 and 2013. Using a novel dataset that combines census information on the universe of Indian firms with geo-referenced data on SEZs, we find that the establishment of SEZs increased local manufacturing and service employment, with positive spillovers up to 10 km from the SEZ area. The analysis shows that the gains in manufacturing and service employment were accompanied by a decline in agricultural labor, especially for women, suggesting that the policy contributed to structural change. In further analysis, we document that significant local employment effects occur across different types of SEZs: privately and publicly run zones, and SEZs with different industry designations.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Johannes Gallé","Daniel Overbeck","Nadine Riedel","Tobias Seidel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105259","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d328c350420b4bca","title":"The effect of birth weight on hospitalizations and sickness absences: a longitudinal study of Swedish siblings","abstract":"We examine the effect of birth weight on health throughout childhood, adolescence, and early adulthood, focusing on two health outcomes: all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations and sickness absences. The outcomes are important, not only from a health perspective but also from a labor market perspective, as the inability to fully participate in the labor force due to impaired health is known to have important long-term consequences. Our analysis focuses on differences between siblings, using full-population Swedish register data on cohorts born between 1973 and 1994. The relationship between birth weight and health is strongest during infancy, after which it weakens throughout childhood and adolescence. In adulthood, a stronger relationship again appears, suggesting a U-shaped relationship over the examined part of the life course. During childhood and adolescence, birth weight influences all examined disease types with the exception of cancers, with nontrivial effect sizes in relative terms. During adulthood, morbidity due to mental diseases dominates, primarily through conditions with early-age origins. Consequently, we provide new evidence that birth weight matters for both short- and long-term health outcomes and that it is of a dynamic nature in terms of its magnitude and which disease types are affected. Lastly, our results remain robust to a range of sensitivity analyses, including nonlinear specifications of birth weight, and to estimations based on a sample of same-sex twin pairs, allowing us to further reduce the influence of genes.","wordCount":231,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Jonas Helgertz","Anton Nilsson"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0706-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d32d0407e063cfba","title":"Spatial inequality and housing in China","abstract":"This paper investigates the evolution of inequality in China (1978–2015) through the lens of a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with migration and capital formation. Due to an urban-rural income gap there is domestic migration from the rural to the urban areas which tends to reduce inequality. The resulting increase in urban house prices can, however, constitute an endogenous barrier to further urbanization. Increasing housing prices increase within-urban inequality between renters and landlords and also lock in urban-rural income differences. The calibrated model explains current, and projects future, development in China.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Thomas Fischer"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103532","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d3448b6e81c4cffb","title":"Income inequality in Eastern Europe: Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia in the twentieth century","abstract":"This article provides novel estimates of long-term income inequality in Bulgaria and Czech Lands/Czechoslovakia in the twentieth century. Relying on newly-constructed datasets and the social tables approach, we measure inequality between salient social strata. We find that Czechoslovakia was significantly more unequal than Bulgaria before 1945. Inequality converged to similarly low levels under socialism. Decomposition analysis by social classes reveals that different levels of inequality in the first half of the century were principally driven by higher within social-class inequality in Czechoslovakia, owing to a more stratified industrial society; whereas a low dispersion within the dominant agricultural sector held down the within social-class component in Bulgaria. A dramatic fall in total inequality after 1945 was a result of the social revolution that encompassed the virtual disappearance of between social-class inequality and a marked reduction in within social-class inequality. Our findings point to the critical role of institutional and political factors in driving inequality in Eastern Europe throughout the twentieth century.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Stefan Nikolić","Filip Novokmet","Piotr Pawel Larysz"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101594","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d3512fe6e2ed4b96","title":"Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries","abstract":"For a panel of 21 OECD heterogeneous countries from 1991 to 2015, we study governments’ reactions to the accumulation of debt and look at whether governments voluntary take corrective measures when the debt-GDP ratio starts rising or they rather let the debt grow. We distinguish between discretionary and automatic response of primary balance of government actions, as captured by the structural component of public primary balance and by cyclical component of public primary balance. We show the existence of a systematic long-term relationship between debt and structural primary balance supporting the view that the long-term governments’ discretionary response to increases in the debt-GDP ratio is negative, that is, governments are not currently taking long-term actions that counteract the increases in debts and do not satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint. In the short term, an asymmetric fiscal policy response exploiting the output gap, by part of the political class of the countries considered, seems to emerge: it intervenes with a new deficit and debt when the output gap is positive, but it does not adopt a symmetrical correction when the situation is reversed.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Elton Beqiraj","Silvia Fedeli","Francesco Forte"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.10.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d35cee436795738c","title":"Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055","abstract":"Climate-related asset stranding refers to the depreciation of assets – such as resource reserves, infrastructure, or industries – resulting from the unanticipated changes, such as the tightening of climate policies. Although developing countries – especially fossil-fuel exporters – may be most concerned by this issue, its analysis in development (economics) has so far been limited. We aim at enhancing the understanding of stranded assets by investigating its relevance in the resource sectors of three case study regions –the Middle East, China, and Latin America. For this, we analyse the regional dimensions of four interdisciplinary global energy scenarios. Specifically, we extract results from a numerical energy model (energy production, energy consumption, electricity generation) for the three regions and introduce a novel index for stranded assets. The index identifies which fossil fuel sector in each region is most prone to asset stranding and should receive the most attention from national and international policymakers. We find that considerable uncertainty exists for the Chinese coal sector as well as the Middle Eastern and Latin American crude oil sectors. We finally put our results into perspective by discussing aspects that are closely related to stranded assets for resource-rich economies such as the uncertainty in global energy and climate policy, the resource curse and diversification, economic resilience, and unequal burden-sharing of climate policy efforts between industrialised economies and latecomers. We conclude that China is more likely to engage in a green transformation than the Latin Americas or, still less, the Middle East.","wordCount":246,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Dawud Ansari","Franziska Holz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104947","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d36b459043a4e7aa","title":"Winners and losers of generative AI: Early Evidence of Shifts in Freelancer Demand","abstract":"We examine how ChatGPT has changed the demand for freelancers in jobs where generative AI tools can act as substitutes or complements to human labor. Using BERTopic we partition job postings from a leading online freelancing platform into 116 fine-grained skill clusters and with GPT-4o we classify them as substitutable, complementary or unaffected by LLMs. Our analysis reveals that labor demand increased after the launch of ChatGPT, but only in skill clusters that were complementary to or unaffected by the AI tool. In contrast, demand for substitutable skills, such as writing and translation, decreased by 20–50% relative to the counterfactual trend, with the sharpest decline observed for short-term (1-3 week) jobs. Within complementary skill clusters, the results are mixed: demand for machine learning programming grew by 24%, and demand for AI-powered chatbot development nearly tripled, while demand for novice workers declined in general. This result suggests a shift toward more specialized expertise for freelancers rather than uniform growth across all complementary areas.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Ole Teutloff","Johanna Einsiedler","otto kässi","Fabian Braesemann","Pamela Mishkin","R. Maria del Rio-Chanona"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106845","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d370f9c44852c957","title":"Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence","abstract":"This article uses an experiment embedded in a survey to analyze the response of consumers' long‐run inflation expectations to information about the Federal Reserve's inflation target and past inflation. On average, respondents revise forecasts toward the 2% target with either information treatment. Forecast uncertainty and heterogeneity decline with the treatments, but remain substantial. Since the information in the treatments is publicly available, these findings are consistent with models of imperfect information in which agents do not fully and continually update their information sets or incorporate all available information into their expectations. Response to treatments varies with prior informedness and with demographic characteristics.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Carola Binder","Alex Rodrigue"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12306","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d387f26e2d251f70","title":"Firm efficiency, foreign ownership and CEO gender in corrupt environments","abstract":"We study the effects of corruption on firm efficiency using a unique dataset of private firms from 14 Central and Eastern European countries from 2000 to 2013. We find that an environment characterized by a high level of corruption has an adverse effect on firm efficiency. This effect is stronger for firms with a lower propensity to behave corruptly, such as foreign-controlled firms and firms managed by female CEOs, while local firms and firms with male CEOs are not disadvantaged. We also find that an environment characterized by considerable heterogeneity in the perception of corruption is associated with an increase in firm efficiency. This effect is particularly strong for foreign-controlled firms from low corruption countries, while no effect is observed for firms managed by a female CEO.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Jan Hanousek","Anastasiya Shamshur","Jiří Trešl"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.06.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d399cd6d892224ad","title":"Information campaigns for residential energy conservation","abstract":"This paper evaluates an intervention that randomized information letters about energy efficient investments and behaviors among 120,000 customers of two utilities in Germany. We find that conservation effects differ considerably between both utilities, ranging from a precisely estimated zero effect to −1.4%. By contrast, we do not detect significant framing effects from presenting savings in monetary or ecological terms. Based on random causal forest methods, we show that the effect heterogeneity across utilities cannot be explained by socio-demographic characteristics. Our results demonstrate the importance of site-specific factors for the effectiveness of information campaigns, which has crucial implications for targeting and the ability to infer population-wide effect sizes from pilot studies.","wordCount":110,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Mark Andor","Andreas Gerster","Jörg Peters"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104094","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d3b85ce494f66077","title":"On the stability of stablecoins","abstract":"This paper investigates the volatility processes of stablecoins and their potential stochastic interdependencies with Bitcoin volatility. We employ a novel approach to choose the optimal combination for the power law exponent and the minimum value for the volatilities bending the power law. Our results indicate that Bitcoin volatility is well-behaved in a statistical sense with a finite theoretical variance. Surprisingly, the volatilities of stablecoins are statistically unstable and contemporaneously respond to Bitcoin volatility. Also, whereas the volatilities of stablecoins are not Granger-causal for Bitcoin volatility, lagged Bitcoin volatility exhibits Granger-causal effects on the volatilities of stablecoins. We conclude that Bitcoin volatility is a fundamental factor that drives the volatilities of stablecoins.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Klaus Grobys","Juha-Pekka Junttila","James W. Kolari","Niranjan Sapkota"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.09.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d3bc7830e9847972","title":"Robots and immigration","abstract":"Changes in local labor supply may affect robot adoption by firms. We test this hypothesis by exploiting an increase in the number of workers and a change in the local workforce composition induced by exogenous immigration into Danish municipalities. Using the Danish employer-employee matched dataset over the period 1995-2019, we show in a shift-share regression that a larger share of non-Western immigrants in a municipality leads to fewer robot adoptions at the firm-level. Several demographic characteristics, including prime age and low skill level, make immigrant workers particularly substitutable for robots. As many advanced economies are facing labor shortages, this paper sheds light on the future of robotization.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Katja Mann","Dario Pozzoli"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106708","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d3c1b2a7373e7a9b","title":"A tale of two utopias: Work in a post-growth world","abstract":"In this paper, we aim to contribute to the literature on post-growth futures. Modern imaginings of the future are constrained by the assumptions of growth-based capitalism. To escape these assumptions we turn to utopian fiction. We explore depictions of work in Cokaygne, a utopian tradition dating back to the 12th century, and William Morris's 19th century News from Nowhere. Cokaygne is a land of excessive consumption without work, while in News from Nowhere work is the route to the good life. These competing notions provide inspiration for a post-growth vision of work. We argue that biophysical and social dynamics mean that in a post-growth economy we are likely to have to be less productive and work more. But, this can be a utopian vision. By breaking the link between work and consumption at the level of the individual, we can remove some of the coercion in work. This would free us to do jobs that contribute to the social good, rather than generate exchange value, and empower us to fight for good work. Finally, we draw on eco-feminist analyses of capitalism to argue that by challenging labour productivity growth we can also challenge wider forces of oppression.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Simon Mair","Angela Druckman","Tim Jackson"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106653","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d3c2454cacefb947","title":"Loyalty Shares with Tenure Voting: Does the Default Rule Matter? Evidence from the<i>Loi Florange</i>Experiment","abstract":"The contractual theory of the firm predicts that companies adopt charters that maximize firms’ value regardless of the default rule. We test this proposition around an exogenous switch of the default from a one-share-one-vote regime to tenure voting following a legal reform in France. In initial public offerings (IPOs), tenure voting is primarily adopted by families, and after the reform its use increased slightly but not significantly. The change in default rule has no significant impact on companies’ characteristics or valuations. For companies that were already listed with one-share-one-vote systems and would have been forced to switch to tenure voting by default, we observe a revealed preference for the choice they had made at the IPO; one-share-one-vote companies preserve their prereform status, unless the French state has a blocking minority. Overall, the results suggest that once firms have optimized, changing the default rule imposes transaction costs without changing outcomes.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Marco Becht","Yuliya Kamisarenka","Anete Pajuste"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/708162","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d3ce16f979c22822","title":"Collaboration and free-riding in team contests","abstract":"The organization of team contests can enhance productivity if teammates with complementary skills are able to allocate the team's tasks efficiently, but can also suffer from free-riding incentives. We report the results of a real-effort experiment in which production requires the completion of two complementary tasks, at which workers have heterogeneous skills. We vary whether participants: compete individually; compete in teams where each member must complete each task; or compete in teams where the agents can divide tasks between them and potentially specialize in the task they do best. We report three main results. First, individuals who must work alone divide their work time in a way that is qualitatively consistent with the theoretical predictions, but allocate too little time to their weaker task. Second, there is no difference in productivity or free-riding behavior between individual contests and team contests where teammates cannot specialize. Finally, and most notably, when teammates can divide work tasks, they allocate more time to the tasks they are best at and experience a strong productivity gain. This is true even among teams that cannot communicate-despite the potential for coordination failure or coordination on Pareto dominated equilibria-but the effect is strongest when communication is available.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Mürüvvet Büyükboyacı","Andrea Robbett"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.11.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d3d1efb80e0aebc1","title":"Estimating environmental and cultural/heritage damages of a tailings dam failure: The case of the Fundão dam in Brazil","abstract":"We present the results of a contingent valuation study aimed at estimating the monetary value of environmental and cultural/heritage injuries caused by the Fundão (tailings) Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 as perceived by the Brazilian population. While the valuation literature considering mining-related externalities is considerable, valuation studies of environmental and cultural/heritage injuries resulting from mining incidents are scarce and most available damage assessments apply market valuation methods, while rarely considering environmental and other nonmarket-valued impacts. The flooding and the release of tailings from the Fundão Dam failure led to injuries to sediments, watercourse opacity, and oxygenation, changes in riparian morphology, damages to cultural/heritage resources, mortality to fish and wildlife, changes in the food chain and more along the 675 km watercourse of the Doce River. This was arguably the greatest environmental and cultural/heritage injury ever caused by a single tailings dam collapse. The study followed state-of-the-art recommendations for the development, administration, and data analysis of stated-preference valuation methods. The survey of a representative sample of 5195 Brazilian urban households revealed that the average lower-bound willingness-to-pay estimate to avoid a similar incident in the near future was 137 USD and the parametric-based estimate was 230 USD per household, which aggregates to 7.96 or 12.91 billion USD, respectively. This corresponds to environmental damages of 176 or 295 USD per m3 of tailings released.","wordCount":222,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Mikołaj Czajkowski","Norman Meade","Ronaldo Serôa da Motta","Ramón Arigoni Ortiz","Mike Welsh","Gleiciane Carvalho Blanc"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102849","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d3d68339629a08b4","title":"The impact of road rationing on housing demand and sorting","abstract":"Canonical urban models postulate transportation cost as a key element in determining urban spatial structure. This paper examines how road rationing policies impact the spatial distribution of households around transit centers using rich micro data on housing transactions and resident demographics in Beijing. We find that Beijing’s road rationing policy significantly increased the demand for housing near subway stations. The premium for proximity is stable in the periods prior to the driving restriction, but shifts significantly in the aftermath of the policy. The composition of households living close to subway stations shifts towards slightly wealthier households. Our findings suggest that city-wide road rationing policies can have the unintended consequence of limiting access to public transit for lower income individuals.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Rhiannon Jerch","Panle Jia Barwick","Shanjun Li","Jing Wu"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103642","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d401d3e1ca0a106e","title":"Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture","abstract":"Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on economic outcomes requires knowing how agents might adapt to a changing climate. We exploit large variation in recent temperature and precipitation trends to identify adaptation to climate change in US agriculture, and use this information to generate new estimates of the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural outcomes. Longer run adaptations appear to have mitigated less than half—and more likely none—of the large negative short-run impacts of extreme heat on productivity. Limited recent adaptation implies substantial losses under future climate change in the absence of countervailing investments.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Marshall Burke","Kyle Emerick"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20130025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d41388e33f42780b","title":"Monetary policy, firm heterogeneity, and product variety","abstract":"This study provides new insights on the allocative effect of monetary policy. It shows that contractionary monetary policy exerts an important reallocation effect by cleansing unproductive firms and enhancing aggregate productivity. At the same time, however, reallocation involves a reduction in the number of product variety that is central to consumer preferences and hurts welfare. A contractionary policy prevents the entry of new firms and insulates incumbent firms from competition, reducing aggregate productivity. We provide empirical evidence on U.S. data that corroborates the relevance of monetary policy for product variety resulting from firm entry and exit.","wordCount":96,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Masashige Hamano","Francesco Zanetti"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104089","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d414f52828bc60a2","title":"Fiscal stimulus with learning‐by‐doing","abstract":"Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression analysis, we document that an increase in government purchases raises private consumption, the real wage, and total factor productivity (TFP) while reducing inflation. These three facts are hard to reconcile with both neoclassical and New Keynesian models. We extend a standard New Keynesian model to allow for skill accumulation through past work experience. An increase in government spending increases hours and induces skill accumulation and higher measured TFP and real wages in subsequent periods. Future marginal costs fall lowering expected inflation and, through the monetary policy rule, the real interest rate. Consumption increases as a result.","wordCount":102,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Antonello d’Alessandro","Giulio Fella","Leonardo Melosi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12391","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d41aae6d66f0789a","title":"Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies","abstract":"I model the equilibrium risk sharing between countries with varying financial development. The most financially developed country takes greater risks because its financial intermediaries deal with funding problems better. In good times, the more financially developed country consumes more and runs a trade deficit financed by the higher financial income that it earns as compensation for taking greater risk. During global crises, it suffers heavier losses. Its currency emerges as the reserve currency because it appreciates during crises, thus providing a good hedge. I provide evidence that financial net worth plays a crucial role in understanding this asymmetric risk sharing.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Matteo Maggiori"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130479","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d43ea52cd276e194","title":"Price discrimination within and across EMU markets: Evidence from French exporters","abstract":"We study the cross-sectional dispersion of prices paid by EMU importers for French products. We document a significant level of dispersion in unit values both within product categories across exporters, and within exporters across buyers. This latter source of price discrepancies, which we call price discrimination, reflects the ability of exporters to sell similar or differentiated varieties of a given product at different prices to different buyers. Price discrimination (i) is substantial within the EU, within the euro area, and within EMU countries; (ii) has not decreased over the last two decades; (iii) is more prevalent among the largest firms and for more differentiated products; (iv) is lower among retailers and wholesalers; (v) is also observed within almost perfectly homogenous product categories, which suggests that a non-negligible share of price discrimination is partly triggered by heterogeneous markups rather than quality or composition effects. We then estimate a rich statistical decomposition of the variance of prices to shed light on exporters' pricing strategies.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["François Fontaine","Julien Martin","Isabelle Méjean"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103300","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d44dcb3e86f2af8b","title":"Moral relativism as a disconnect between behavioural and experienced warm glow","abstract":"We examine the robustness of warm glow preferences to changes in the choice set. Behavioural warm glow is measured using the crowded-out charity dictator game of Crumpler and Grossman (2008). In the give treatment, subjects could donate any part of their endowment to charity where their donations completely crowd out the charity’s own initial endowment. In the give/take treatment, the option to take any part of the charity’s endowment was added to the subjects’ choice set. Experienced warm glow is measured by a series of post-decision self-reports of positive affect. Within each treatment behavioural and experienced warm glow are positively correlated, such that the more subjects donated to charity the better they claimed to feel about themselves. However, when comparing across treatments the addition of the take option results in a fall in behavioural warm glow but a rise in experienced warm glow. We interpret these results as evidence for (i) a utility function increasing in both money and morality and (ii) a type of moral relativism whereby the morally good action is defined in relation to the available options. This means that utility is derived from both the chosen option and from foregone opportunities, the implication of which is that the transitivity axiom becomes practically unfalsifiable.","wordCount":207,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Eamonn Ferguson","Niall Flynn"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2016.06.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d45defcfcf83d766","title":"Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective","abstract":"Prior literature has established that displaced workers suffer persistent earnings losses by following workers in administrative data after mass layoffs. This literature assumes that these are involuntary separations owing to economic distress. This paper examines this assumption by matching survey data on worker-supplied reasons for separations with administrative data. Workers exhibit substantially different earnings dynamics in mass layoffs depending on the reason for separation. Using a new methodology to account for the increased separation rates across all survey responses during a mass layoff, the paper finds earnings loss estimates that are surprisingly close to those using only administrative data.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Aaron Flaaen","Matthew D. Shapiro","Isaac Sorkin"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170162","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d45e5f3c1becb219","title":"The interdependencies between the private and public sectors in open economies","abstract":"Empirical evidence shows that countries with larger public sectors also have larger trade shares and a larger share of firms that export. These links between the public and the private sector are reconciled in an analytically tractable general equilibrium model allowing for a two-way causal relation between size (and the composition) of the public sector and openness and industry structure of the private sector. First, a larger public sector or a larger share of public expenditure used for public employment (alternative to transfers) results in a more open private sector (trade share and fraction of firms exporting), and it is also associated with more fat-tailedness of the firm size distribution, higher average productivity, lower average unit labour costs, and better wage competitiveness and terms of trade. These outcomes are driven by endogenous entry and selection of firms. Second, for optimal fiscal policies, international spillovers imply that non-cooperative policies have an upward bias in the overall size of the public sector, but a downward bias in transfers as a share of public expenditures. Trade liberalization and the degree of firm heterogeneity magnify these biases and thereby influence the size and structure of public expenditures.","wordCount":193,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Torben M. Andersen","Allan Sørensen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104606","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d46cfdacad9b6112","title":"Data-driven structural BVAR analysis of unconventional monetary policy","abstract":"We apply a novel Bayesian structural vector autoregressive method to analyze the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in Japan, the US and the euro area. The method exploits statistical properties of the data to uniquely identify the model without restrictions, and thus enables formal assessment of the plausibility of given sign restrictions. Unlike previous research, the data-based analysis reveals differences in the output and price effects of the Bank of Japan’s, Federal Reserve’s and European Central Bank’s balance sheet operations.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Päivi Puonti"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103131","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d46e447e91df45f1","title":"Either or Both Competition: A “Two-Sided” Theory of Advertising with Overlapping Viewerships","abstract":"In media markets, consumers spread their attention to several outlets, increasingly so as consumption migrates online. The traditional framework for competition among media outlets rules out this behavior by assumption. We propose a new model that allows consumers to choose multiple outlets and use it to study the effects on advertising levels and the impact of entry and mergers. We identify novel forces which reflect outlets' incentives to control the composition of their customer base. We link consumer preferences and advertising technologies to market outcomes. The model can explain several empirical regularities that are difficult to reconcile with existing models.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Attila Ambrus","Emilio Calvano","Markus Reisinger"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150019","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d471f7b8df0d67cd","title":"Machine-learning the skill of mutual fund managers","abstract":"We show, using machine learning, that fund characteristics can consistently differentiate high from low-performing mutual funds, before and after fees. The outperformance persists for more than three years. Fund momentum and fund flow are the most important predictors of future risk-adjusted fund performance, while characteristics of the stocks that funds hold are not predictive. Returns of predictive long-short portfolios are higher following a period of high sentiment. Our estimation with neural networks enables us to uncover novel and substantial interaction effects between sentiment and both fund flow and fund momentum.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Ron Kaniel","Zihan Lin","Markus Pelger","Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.07.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d47315d495287d8f","title":"Agricultural intensification: The status in six African countries","abstract":"Boserup and Ruthenberg (BR) provided the framework to analyze the impact of population growth and market access on the intensification of farming systems. Prior evidence in Africa is consistent with the framework. Over the past two decades, rapid population growth has put farming systems under stress, while rapid urbanization and economic growth have provided new market opportunities. New measures of agro-ecological potential and urban gravity are developed to analyze their impact on population density and market access. The descriptive and regression analyses show that the patterns of intensification across countries are only partially consistent with the BR predictions. Fallow areas have disappeared, but cropping intensities remain very low. The use of organic and chemical fertilizers is too low to maintain soil fertility. Investments in irrigation are inadequate. In light of the promising outcomes suggested by the Boserup-Ruthenberg framework, the process of intensification across these countries appears to have been weak.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize","Sara Savastano"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.021","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d477931c65f07d80","title":"The Effects of Chronic Disease Management in Primary Health Care: Evidence from Rural China","abstract":"Health systems globally face increasing morbidity and mortality from chronic diseases, yet many - especially in low- and middle-income countries - lack strong chronic disease management in primary health care (PHC). We provide evidence on China's efforts to promote PHC management using unique five-year panel data in a rural county, including health care utilization from medical claims and health outcomes from biomarkers. Utilizing plausibly exogenous variation in management intensity generated by administrative and geographic boundaries, we compare hypertension/diabetes patients in villages within two kilometers distance but managed by different townships. Results show that, compared to patients in townships with median management intensity, patients in high-intensity townships have 4.8% more PHC visits, 5.2% fewer specialist visits, 11.7% lower likelihood of having an inpatient admission, and 3.6% lower medical spending. They also tend to have better medication adherence and better control of blood pressure. The resource savings from avoided inpatient admissions substantially outweigh the costs of the program.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Hui Ding","Yiwei Chen","Min Yu","Jieming Zhong","Ruying Hu","Xiangyu Chen","Chunmei Wang","Kaixu Xie","Karen Eggleston"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102539","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d482a645311dc6f3","title":"Heterogeneous treatment effects of nudge and rebate: Causal machine learning in a field experiment on electricity conservation","abstract":"This study investigates the different impacts of monetary and nonmonetary incentives on energy‐saving behaviors using a field experiment conducted in Japan. We find that the average reduction in electricity consumption from the rebate is 4%, whereas that from the nudge is not significantly different from zero. Applying a novel machine learning method for causal inference (causal forest) to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects at the household level, we demonstrate that the nudge intervention's treatment effects generate greater heterogeneity among households. These findings suggest that selective targeting for treatment increases the policy efficiency of monetary and nonmonetary interventions.","wordCount":96,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Kayo Murakami","Hideki Shimada","Yoshiaki Ushifusa","Takanori Ida"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12589","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d4848c2436b45992","title":"Bankruptcy and delinquency in a model of unsecured debt","abstract":"This article documents and interprets a fact central to the dynamics of informal consumer debt default. We observe that for individuals 60– 90 days late on payments, (i) 85% make payments during the next quarter, and (ii) 40% reduce their debt. To understand these facts, we develop a quantitative model of debt delinquency and bankruptcy. Our model reproduces the dynamics of delinquency and suggests an interpretation of the data in which lenders frequently reset loan terms for delinquent borrowers, typically offering partial debt forgiveness, instead of a blanket imposition of the “penalty rates” most unsecured credit contracts specify.","wordCount":98,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Kartik Athreya","Juan M. Sánchez","Xuan S. Tam","Eric R. Young"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12281","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d48a2d80b3ffc39b","title":"Exploring interaction effects of climate policies: A model analysis of the power market","abstract":"The effectiveness of climate policy strongly depends on how these measures are implemented. National policy measures may have international spillover effects which partly neutralize domestic emission reduction, while different types of policy measures may offset each other as well. This paper explores the conditions for these interaction effects by using a concise partial-equilibrium two-country model of the electricity market which also includes a system for emissions trading. We find that the international spillover effects not only depend on the integration of electricity markets, but also on the tightness of the emissions-trading system. We show that this tightness is negatively related to the degree the supply of renewable energy is stimulated. We find that the more renewable energy is stimulated, the less domestic reduction in carbon emissions is offset by spillover effects. A more binding cap in the emissions-trading system makes national policies less effective. Hence, if climate-policy measures such as subsidies for renewable energy make the cap in the trading scheme less binding, these climate-policy measures become more effective.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Machiel Mulder","Yuyu Zeng"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.09.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d493768ce649bd4e","title":"Infrastructure and inequality: Insights from incorporating key economic facts about household heterogeneity","abstract":"We study the impacts of investment in public capital on equity and efficiency. Taking into account stylized facts on wealth accumulation, we model agent heterogeneity through differences in saving behavior, income source and time preference. We find that in the long run, public investment is Pareto-improving and that it reduces inequality in wealth, welfare, and income at the same time, if it is financed by a capital tax. Consumption tax financing is also Pareto-improving but distribution-neutral. Only for labor tax financing, a trade-off between equity and efficiency occurs. Additionally, we find that agents differ in their preferred tax rates.The results for capital and labor tax financing are valid for both, the case of decreasing and constant returns to accumulable factors.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["David Klenert","Linus Mattauch","Ottmar Edenhofer","Kai Lessmann"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000432","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d4a320d515cabe81","title":"Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises","abstract":"The ultimate goal of macroprudential policy is to prevent and reduce the costs of systemic financial crises, and thus contribute to promoting sustainable economic growth. However, despite the active role played by such policies in recent decades, there is still limited empirical evidence regarding whether prudential regulation is effective to enhance financial stability by preventing and mitigating crisis risk. This paper seeks to close that gap by studying the relationship between macroprudential policy and both the likelihood and severity of financial crises. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, I show that macroprudential policy tightenings are successful at reducing the frequency of systemic financial crises. Moreover, this result holds even if macroprudential policies are implemented when the economy is already experiencing a financial boom or when monetary conditions are rather accommodative. I point to the prevention and mitigation of financial booms as the main transmission mechanism through which macroprudential policy defuses crisis risk. Second, I find that macroprudential policy enhances the resilience of the financial system, by dampening the output losses associated with future systemic financial crises. The latter result implies that macroprudential policy not only makes financial crises less likely, but also less painful.","wordCount":196,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104350","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d4cf39b797277665","title":"Paying in a blink of an eye: it hurts less, but you spend more","abstract":"The key objective of this research is to gain a deeper understanding of the factors associated with pain of paying and to extend knowledge of the consequences. Using rich consumer survey data on the Netherlands, we find that electronic payments – both online and offline – hurt less than cash payments. This holds especially for contactless payments and iDEAL payments, a frequently used online payment method in the Netherlands, and for older people in particular but not for teenagers. Furthermore, the perceived pain of paying is positively related to the price of the product or service and slightly lower for an outing compared to grocery shopping. In addition, the pain is relatively high for individuals that are likely to value money more, such as people who find it hard to make ends meet with their income. On average, cash is perceived to be most helpful in preventing overspending, whereas contactless payments are the least helpful. The lower the perceived pain of paying contactless is in comparison to the pain associated with other payment methods, the lower its perceived usefulness in preventing overspending. Moreover, the intensity of use of contactless payments is negatively correlated with the relative pain of paying contactless, which suggests that people try to avoid the pain of paying. As the usage of cash is declining, it is important that policymakers develop tools that help consumers in averting overspending when utilizing electronic payment methods, particularly contactless ones.","wordCount":239,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Marie-Claire Broekhoff","Carin van der Cruijsen"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.03.017","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d4cf4e356bf7e107","title":"Cluster-robust inference: A guide to empirical practice","abstract":"Methods for cluster-robust inference are routinely used in economics and many other disciplines. However, it is only recently that theoretical foundations for the use of these methods in many empirically relevant situations have been developed. In this paper, we use these theoretical results to provide a guide to empirical practice. We do not attempt to present a comprehensive survey of the (very large) literature. Instead, we bridge theory and practice by providing a thorough guide on what to do and why, based on recently available econometric theory and simulation evidence. To practice what we preach, we include an empirical analysis of the effects of the minimum wage on labor supply of teenagers using individual data.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["James G. MacKinnon","Morten Ørregaard Nielsen","Matthew D. Webb"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.04.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d4d3b4d8cca39d29","title":"“Measurement drives diagnosis and response”: Gaps in transferring food security assessment to the urban scale","abstract":"The understanding of food security has seen major shifts since the original conceptualisations of the challenge. These changes in understanding have been accompanied by different food security measurement approaches. Despite the fact that the world has become increasingly urbanised and the developing world in particular, is experiencing its own urban transition, changes in food security measurement remain predominantly informed by a rural understanding of food security. In instances where urban measurement does take place, rural-oriented measurement approaches are adopted, occluding critical urban challenges and systemic drivers. This paper begins by highlighting the urban transition and attendant food security challenges in the Global South. It then reflects on existing food security measurement methods, detailing the positive components but also highlighting the shortfalls applicable to the urban context. At the urban scale, a food system assessment is argued to be one appropriate tool to respond to urban food insecurity while at the same time providing both the “breadth and depth” to inform effective food security programming and policy interventions. Theoretically, questions of scale, context and a critique of the rural bias in food systems work are essential informants guiding the approaches applied.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Gareth Haysom","Godfrey Tawodzera"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d4e5fbe08cb844a0","title":"Defaults, Decision Costs and Welfare in Behavioural Policy Design","abstract":"This paper studies the welfare effects of behavioural policies that change a consumer's default option or their cost of optimizing. I find that such policies, though increasingly popular, lead not just to changes in the welfare of optimizers or default‐takers in the population—the payoff effect —but also to the membership of those groups—the composition effect . This can lead to costly and potentially counterintuitive effects: improving defaults may actually lower welfare, unlike decision simplification, which is unambiguously positive. Such approaches present a useful policy tool but are not always appropriate, and considerable knowledge of preferences is necessary for effective implementation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Nicholas Chesterley"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12213","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d4f42f0e8de8f562","title":"Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility","abstract":"In this paper, we develop an empirical framework that allows us to trace out a time path of metal prices. This framework shows that unpredictable shifts in demand, extraction costs and discovery of reserves, make estimation of the slope of this underlying trend an empirical question. Further, the low elasticity of demand and supply cause large volatility in the prices, which makes estimation of the trend difficult. We estimate the trend in metal prices employing econometric procedures that are robust to the underlying order of integration of the data and allow for nonstationary volatility, which we note is a characteristic feature of metal prices. We further analyse whether metal prices are characterised by stochastic trends by conducting unit root tests that allow for nonstationary volatility. Applying these procedures on metal prices for over a century, we draw conclusions that relate to policy.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Tony Addison","Atanu Ghoshray"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101334","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d4f7151f614d1955","title":"The cannibalization effect of wind and solar in the California wholesale electricity market","abstract":"Increasing penetration of zero marginal cost variable renewable technologies cause the decline of wholesale electricity prices due to the merit-order effect. This causes a “cannibalization effect” through which increasing renewable technologies’ penetration undermines their own value. We calculate solar and wind daily unit revenues (generation weighted electricity prices) and value factors (unit revenues divided by average electricity prices) from hourly data of the day-ahead California wholesale electricity market (CAISO) for the period January 2013 to June 2017. We then perform a time series econometric analysis to test the absolute (unit revenues) and relative (value factors) cannibalization effect of solar and wind technologies, as well as the cross-cannibalization effects between technologies. We find both absolute and relative cannibalization effect for both solar and wind, but while wind penetration reduces the value factor of solar, solar penetration increases wind value factor, at least at high penetration and low consumption levels. We explore non-linearities and also find that the cannibalization effect is stronger at low consumption and high wind/solar penetration levels. This entails that wind and (mainly) solar competitiveness could be jeopardized unless additional mitigation measures such as storage, demand management or intercontinental interconnections are taken.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Javier López Prol","Karl W. Steininger","David Zilberman"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104552","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5133367f8628d66","title":"Democracy Does Cause Growth","abstract":"We provide evidence that democracy has a positive effect on GDP per capita. Our dynamic panel strategy controls for country fixed effects and the rich dynamics of GDP, which otherwise confound the effect of democracy. To reduce measurement error, we introduce a new indicator of democracy that consolidates previous measures. Our baseline results show that democratizations increase GDP per capita by about 20 percent in the long run. We find similar effects using a propensity score reweighting strategy as well as an instrumental-variables strategy using regional waves of democratization. The effects are similar across different levels of development and appear to be driven by greater investments in capital, schooling, and health.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Suresh Naidu","Pascual Restrepo","James A. Robinson"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700936","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d5154647fc1794d9","title":"The Effects of Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid Abuse, Mortality, and Crime","abstract":"The United States is experiencing an epidemic of opioid abuse. In response, states have implemented policies including increased access to naloxone, a drug that can save lives when administered during an overdose. There is a concern that widespread naloxone access may unintentionally lead to increased or riskier opioid use by reducing the risk of death from overdose, however. In this paper, we use the staggered timing of state-level naloxone access laws as a natural experiment to measure the effects of broadening access to this lifesaving drug. We find that broadened access led to more opioid-related emergency room visits and more opioid-related theft, with no net measurable reduction in opioid-related mortality. We conclude that naloxone has a clear and important role in harm reduction, yet its ability to combat the opioid epidemic’s death toll may be limited without complementary efforts.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Jennifer L. Doleac","Anita Mukherjee"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719588","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d517194a413474f5","title":"Labor Market Returns to Vocational Secondary Education","abstract":"We study labor market returns to vocational versus general secondary education using a regression discontinuity design created by the centralized admissions process in Finland. Admission to the vocational track increases initial annual income, and this benefit persists at least through the mid-thirties, and present discount value calculations suggest that it is unlikely that life cycle returns will turn negative through retirement. Moreover, admission to the vocational track does not increase the likelihood of working in jobs at risk of replacement by automation or offshoring. Consistent with comparative advantage, we observe larger returns for people who express a preference for vocational education.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Mikko Silliman","Hanna Virtanen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190782","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d51d65d0303fbc9b","title":"Does employee ownership improve labour investment efficiency? Evidence from European firms","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of non-executive employee ownership on labour investment efficiency for a sample of European firms. It empirically documents a negative association between employee ownership and labour investment inefficiency, which serves an inverse measure of labour investment efficiency. This negative association is notably more pronounced for firms reporting higher discretionary accruals in their financial statements (i.e. firms with higher information asymmetry) and for those with a lower percentage of independent directors (i.e. firms with greater agency problems). As such, this paper offers evidence that employee shareholding enhances employment decisions through two channels: reduced information asymmetry and improved management monitoring.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Sami Adwan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111717","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d520a2b25daa7797","title":"SNAP and Paycheck Cycles","abstract":"It is well documented that individuals do not spend the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits smoothly over the month after receipt. Rather, recipients spend a disproportionate share of benefits at the beginning of the benefit month. This has costs for recipients and stores. There is also evidence that other income streams, such as Social Security and paychecks, are not spent smoothly. The presence of these other income streams may bias estimates of the effects of this SNAP cycle on consumption for working SNAP beneficiaries and those who receive other government benefits. We use data from United States Department of Agriculture's National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey to explore how the SNAP cycle is affected by accounting for these other income streams. We find suggestive evidence that the cycle is more pronounced for workers who are paid on a weekly or monthly basis, but little evidence that cycles in other income streams mitigate or exacerbate the SNAP cycle.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Timothy K.M. Beatty","Marianne Bitler","Xinzhe Cheng","Cynthia van der Werf"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12345","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d532d0eb9c8a88ed","title":"Bitcoin 1, bitcoin 2,....: An experiment in privately issued outside monies","abstract":"The value of bitcoin depends upon self‐fulfilling beliefs that are hard to pin down. We demonstrate this for the case where bitcoin is the only form of money in the economy and then generalize the message to the case of multiple bitcoin clones and/or a competing fiat currency. Some aspects of the indeterminacy we describe would no longer hold if bitcoin were an interest‐bearing object.","wordCount":65,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Rodney Garratt","Neil Wallace"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12569","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d53dd2d285cee80b","title":"Effects of corruption on foreign direct investment: Evidence from Swedish multinational enterprises","abstract":"In this paper, we provide novel evidence on the adjustment of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to corrupt environments. We examine if the corruption barrier to entry is reduced by corruption experience (i.e., previous investment in a corrupt system) using a rich enterprise data set on Swedish manufacturers’ activities in the 1997–2015 period. A mixed logit model, which accounts for enterprise-specific market substitution patterns, is used to ensure the accuracy of estimates. Our findings show that a strong deterrent effect of corruption is counteracted by corruption experience, which implies that MNEs learn to adjust to reduce corruption entry costs. Multinational enterprises that acquire corruption experience gain a competitive advantage over other enterprises.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Susanna Thede","Patrik Karpaty"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.10.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d543f97bde6325be","title":"Aggregate portfolio choice","abstract":"Important portfolio choice decisions are made for large groups of heterogeneous individual investors. I propose solving the cross-sectional average of the individual Euler equations to find an optimal portfolio for an aggregate of investors under one-size-fits-all constraints. Using a dynamic portfolio choice model to design balanced default funds for 72 hypothetical industry pension plans, the average Euler equations depend on industry-specific per-capita earnings growth and moments of idiosyncratic earnings shocks. Inter-industry heterogeneity in moments of the joint distribution of earnings growth and the return on risky assets, including correlation and cokurtosis, explains the variation in optimal choice variables across industries.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Joachim Inkmann"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101494","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d54495204a0c8f41","title":"Almost‐Maximization as a Behavioral Theory of the Firm: Static, Dynamic and Evolutionary Perspectives","abstract":"In this paper we consider the effect of epsilon maximization on firm behavior. In particular we focus on the dynamic behavior of firms with the use of the example of price‐setting: We show how almost-rational firms can be more volatile in their behavior. However, if a lexicographic preference for simplicity is made, then we can explain nominal price rigidity as a result of epsilon optimization. The behavior of the firm—which is consistent with its long‐term survival—is examined. We argue that epsilon-optimization is consistent with survival in any context in which something is optimized: such as sales revenue.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Huw David Dixon"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09727-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d547e7f7a259bbae","title":"The economic effects of government spending: using expectations data to control for information","abstract":"We present a new methodology that uses professional forecasts to estimate the effects of fiscal policy. We use short-term forecasts to better identify exogenous shocks to government spending by controlling for anticipatory information already in the public domain. We use longer-term forecasts to net out expectations from the future path of other variables, which improves accuracy and efficiency by focusing on more precise measures of the impact of shocks. We show that this improves the statistical fit relative to both local projection methods and vector autoregression-based analyses that do not control for the entire future path of expectations.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Matthew Hall","Aditi Thapar"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100521000341","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d54d3a641a5d308f","title":"Evolution of a dealer trading network and its effects on art auction prices","abstract":"We use a unique historical data set (1741-1913) of all London-based art auctions to capture the role of information acquisition in the development of a trading network for dealers and its effect on artwork prices. We explore how the network size, depth of interactions, and similarities in art specialization between trading partners influence the decision to form new links. We find that, a larger and deeper trading network exacerbates informational asymmetries among buyers, leading to a price advantage. We show that information transmission through a network of experienced dealers is important in determining the price they pay - a factor that has been overlooked so far in the literature.","wordCount":109,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Dakshina G. De Silva","Marina Gertsberg","Georgia Kosmopoulou","Rachel A.J. Pownall"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104083","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d551f5e707663b86","title":"Simple equilibria in general contests","abstract":"We show how symmetric equilibria emerge in general two-player contests in which skill and effort are combined to produce output according to a general production technology and players have skills drawn from different distributions. The model includes the Tullock (1980) and Lazear and Rosen (1981) models as special cases. Our paper provides intuition regarding how the contest components interact to determine the incentive to exert effort and sheds new light on classic comparative statics results. In particular, we show that more heterogeneity can increase equilibrium effort.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Spencer Bastani","Thomas Giebe","Oliver Gürtler"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.05.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5783d5f5fab61a7","title":"Moving Towards Estimating Sons' Lifetime Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the UK","abstract":"Estimates of intergenerational economic mobility that use point in time measures of income and earnings suffer from lifecycle and attenuation bias. They also suffer from sample selection issues and further bias driven by spells out of work. We consider these issues together for UK data, the National Child Development Study and British Cohort Study, for the first time. When all three biases are considered, our best estimate of lifetime intergenerational economic persistence in the UK is 0.43 for children born in 1970. Whilst we argue that this is the best available estimate to date, we discuss why there is good reason to believe that this is still a lower bound, owing to residual attenuation bias.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Paul Gregg","Lindsey Macmillan","Claudia Vittori"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12146","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d595252e33959de9","title":"Vertical Most-Favored-Nation Restraints and Credit Card No-Surcharge Rules","abstract":"A vertical most-favored-nation (vMFN) restraint prohibits a retailer from charging more for one supplier’s product than for rivals’ products. For credit card services, this restraint takes the form of a no-surcharge rule: the credit card company prohibits the retailer from surcharging transactions using the company’s card. This article develops a theory of vMFN restraints and applies it to credit cards. The vMFN clause harms competition among upstream suppliers, which raises price to a level even greater than the monopoly price. The vMFN clause can also be used to extract surplus from customers of products supplied competitively. Applying the theory to credit card antitrust cases, we find that the two-sided nature of the market does not mandate a new set of competition policy principles, contrary to the decision in Ohio v. American Express. Indeed, the economic literature on credit card networks as two-sided platforms rediscovers established principles of price theory.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Dennis W. Carlton","Ralph A. Winter"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699165","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d5b542aa859c2100","title":"Education expansion and high-skill job opportunities for workers: Does a rising tide lift all boats?","abstract":"We examine how education expansions affect the job opportunities for workers with and without the new education. To identify causal effects, we exploit a quasi-random establishment of Universities of Applied Sciences (UASs), bachelor-granting three-year colleges that teach and conduct applied research. By applying machine-learning methods to job advertisement data, we analyze job content before and after the education expansion. We find that, in regions with the newly established UASs, not only job descriptions of the new UAS graduates but also job descriptions of workers without this degree (i.e., middle-skilled workers with vocational training) contain more high-skill job content. This upskilling in job content is driven by an increase in high-skill R&D-related tasks and linked to employment and wage gains. The task spillovers likely occur because UAS graduates with applied research skills build a bridge between middle-skilled workers and traditional university graduates, facilitating the integration of the former into R&D-related tasks.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Tobias Schultheiss","Curdin Pfister","Ann-Sophie Gnehm","Uschi Backes‐Gellner"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102354","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5b81d598969b06e","title":"Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China","abstract":"We study the changing landscape of credit market guarantees by examining the risk-pricing of the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, which have experienced rising defaults across provinces from a zero record. Using primary market bond issuance data, we identify a province premium that captures the perceived local government support for local SOEs. We find that on average the perceived local government support is on the decline, while the subnational debt market has become more segmented since 2018. This evidence is found to be closely related to the divergence in local government’s fiscal space and the occurrence of SOE default incidents in the area, highlighting the adverse linkage between public debt and corporate financing costs.","wordCount":114,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yabin Wang","Sharon Xiaohui Wu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101920","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5b9b33d02fe9725","title":"Production agreements, sustainability investments, and consumer welfare","abstract":"Schinkel and Spiegel (2017) finds that allowing sustainability agreements in which firms coordinate their investments in sustainability leads to lower investments and lower output. By contrast, allowing production agreements, in which firms coordinate output yet continue to compete on investments, boosts investments in sustainability and may also benefit consumers. We extend these results to the case where investments affect not only the consumers’ willingness to pay, but also marginal cost. We show that sustainability agreements continue to lower investments and output levels, while production agreements increase investments but when they benefit consumers, they are not profitable for firms and will therefore not be formed. This implies that exempting horizontal agreements from the cartel prohibition cannot be relied on to advance sustainability goals and satisfy the competition law requirement that consumers must not be worse off.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Maarten Pieter Schinkel","Yossi Spiegel","Leonard Treuren"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110564","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5c2400749a3e82d","title":"A babel of web-searches: Googling unemployment during the pandemic","abstract":"Researchers are increasingly exploiting web-searches to study phenomena for which timely and high-frequency data are not readily available. We propose a data-driven procedure which, exploiting machine learning techniques, solves the issue of identifying the list of queries linked to the phenomenon of interest, even in a cross-country setting. Queries are then aggregated in an indicator which can be used for causal inference. We apply this procedure to construct a search-based unemployment index and study the effect of lock-downs during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic. In a Difference-in-Differences analysis, we show that the indicator rose significantly and persistently in the aftermath of lock-downs. This is not the case when using unprocessed (raw) web search data, which might return a partial figure of the labour market dynamics following lock-downs.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Giulio Caperna","Marco Colagrossi","Andrea Geraci","Gianluca Mazzarella"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102097","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5d4c86dd27b50d0","title":"Estimating direct rebound effects for personal automotive travel in Great Britain","abstract":"Direct rebound effects result from increased consumption of cheaper energy services. For example, more fuel-efficient cars encourage more car travel. This study is the first to quantify this effect for personal automotive travel in Great Britain. We use aggregate time-series data on transport activity, fuel consumption and other relevant variables over the period 1970-2011 and estimate the direct rebound effect from the elasticity of vehicle kilometres with respect to: a) vehicle fuel efficiency (km/MJ); b) the fuel cost of driving (£/km); and c) road fuel prices (£/MJ). We estimate a total of 54 models, paying careful attention to methodological issues and model diagnostics. Taking changes in fuel efficiency as the explanatory variable, we find no evidence of a long-run direct rebound effect in Great Britain over this period. However, taking changes in either the fuel cost of driving or fuel prices as the explanatory variable we estimate a direct rebound effect in the range 10% to 27% with a mean of 18%. This estimate is consistent with the results of US studies and suggests that one fifth of the potential fuel savings from improved car fuel efficiency may have been eroded through increased driving. We also show how the normalisation of distance travelled (per capita, per adult or per driver) \\naffects the results obtained.","wordCount":214,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Lee Stapleton","Steve Sorrell","Tim Schwanen"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.12.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5fb3181fe1e59e5","title":"Can youth empowerment programs reduce violence against girls during the COVID-19 pandemic?","abstract":"This paper shows that a youth empowerment program in Bolivia reduced the reported prevalence of violence against girls during the COVID-19 lockdown. The program offered training in soft skills and technical skills, sexual education, mentoring and job-finding assistance. To measure the effects of the program, the study conducted a randomized control trial with 600 vulnerable adolescents. Results indicate that 7 months after its completion, the program increased girls' earnings and decreased violence against girls. Violence was measured with both direct self-report questions and list experiments. These findings suggest that multi-faceted empowerment programs can reduce the level of violence experienced by young women during high-risk periods.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Selim Gulesci","Manuela Puente–Beccar","Diego Ubfal"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102716","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d5fbbfaca96ebb95","title":"Black Lives Matter’s effect on police lethal use of force","abstract":"How has Black Lives Matter (BLM) influenced police lethal force? An event study design finds census places with early BLM protests experienced a 10% to 15% decrease in police homicides from 2014 through 2019, around 200 fewer deaths. This decrease was prominent when protests were large and frequent. Potential mechanisms behind the reduction include police agencies obtaining body-worn cameras to curtail force and a so-called ‘Ferguson effect.’ Fewer property crime arrests, but more reported murders, were associated with local protests, yet the property crime clearance rate fell.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Travis Campbell"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103587","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d60a873569f2e475","title":"Mutual fund performance and flow-performance relationship under ambiguity","abstract":"Since the exact probability distribution of asset returns is often unknown, the type of uncertainty affecting financial assets may be better characterized as ambiguity rather than risk. Using data from the U.S. mutual fund market, we examine the relationships between mutual funds’ ambiguity exposure, risk-adjusted performance, and investment flows. We introduce a novel measure of ambiguity exposure based on the smooth ambiguity model, which provides insight into how funds are priced in the presence of ambiguity. We find that risk-adjusted fund returns include a positive premium that compensates for greater ambiguity exposure in the fund’s asset holdings. The flow analysis, however, suggests that fund investors pursue positive risk-adjusted returns overall, regardless of whether seemingly superior returns are driven by the ambiguity premium. This behavior indicates that fund investors are primarily attracted to performance outcomes and less concerned with whether these reflect managerial expertise or increased ambiguity exposure.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Ariel Gu","Hong Il Yoo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101655","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d61092844d850f33","title":"The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19","abstract":"Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department’s epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Guilhem Cassan","Marc Sangnier"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d610b21065d16002","title":"Health externalities of India's expansion of coal plants: Evidence from a national panel of 40,000 households","abstract":"Coal power generation is expanding rapidly in India and other developing countries. In addition to consequences for climate change, present-day health externalities may also substantially increase the social cost of coal. Health consequences of air pollution have proven important in studies of developed countries, but, despite clear importance, similarly well-identified estimates are less available for developing countries, and no estimates exist for the important case of coal in India. We exploit panel data on Indian households, matched to local changes in exposure to coal plants. Increased exposure to coal plants is associated with worse respiratory health. Consistent with a causal mechanism, the effect is specific: no effect is seen on diarrhea or fever, and no effect on respiratory health is seen of new non-coal plants. Our result is not due to endogenous avoidance behavior, or to differential trends in determinants of respiratory health, either before the period studied or simultaneously.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Aashish Gupta","Dean Spears"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.04.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d624bae6c64eb0bf","title":"Ranking disclosure policies in all‐pay auctions","abstract":"In this paper, we study information disclosure policies in all‐pay auctions with incomplete information. Two symmetric players have either high or low private value. The contest organizer observes players' values ex post, and can commit ex ante to four different symmetric information policies exhaustively: She can fully disclose or conceal the players' types, and she can disclose their types if and only if when both are high or if and only if when both are low. We characterize the unique equilibriums, and completely rank the four policies by various criteria. We find the full concealment policy extracts highest aggregate expected effort, followed by the policy of disclosing types if and only if when both are high. The policy of disclosing types if and only if when both are low induces least aggregate expected effort. Players enjoy highest expected payoffs under the policy of disclosing types if and only if when both are low; the other three policies yield the same expected payoffs to players. In terms of prize allocation efficiency, the full concealment policy is ranked highest and the full disclosure policy is ranked lowest. In between, the other two policies' rankings depend on the probability of high type.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Jingfeng Lu","Hongkun Ma","Zhe Wang"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12504","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d63b1fa90a7cca62","title":"Job Loss and Immigrant Labour Market Performance","abstract":"While integration policies typically focus on labour market entry, we present evidence showing that immigrants from low‐income countries tend to have more precarious jobs, and face more severe consequences of job loss, than natives. For immigrant workers in the Norwegian private sector, the probability of job loss in the near future is more than twice that of native workers. Using corporate bankruptcy filings for identification, we find that the adverse effects of job loss on future employment and earnings are twice as large for immigrant employees from low‐income source countries.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Bernt Bratsberg","Oddbjørn Raaum","Knut Røed"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12244","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d645e09e3384aa51","title":"Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability: Preferences or noise?","abstract":"Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation may be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Ola Andersson","Håkan J. Holm","Jean‐Robert Tyran","Erik Wengström"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12179","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d65b0342d4b6441c","title":"An alternative approach for nonparametric analysis of random utility models","abstract":"We readdress the problem of nonparametric statistical testing of random utility models proposed in Kitamura and Stoye (2018) . Although their test is elegant, it is subject to computational constraints which leaves execution of the test infeasible in many applications. We note that much of the computational burden in Kitamura and Stoye's test is due to their test defining a polyhedral cone through its vertices rather than its faces. We propose an alternative but equivalent hypothesis test for random utility models. This test relies on a series of equality and inequality constraints which defines the faces of the corresponding polyhedral cone. Building on our testing procedure, we develop a novel axiomatization of the random utility model.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Christopher Turansick"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.105998","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d65c31658514244f","title":"We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers","abstract":"We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size of the fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multipliers estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation. The cumulative effects of such arguably innocuous methodological choices can lead to a change in the spending multipliers of as much as 0.4 points.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Jan Čapek","Jesús Crespo Cuaresma"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12351","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d65c3ed601056cfa","title":"Financial intermediation, real exchange rates, and unconventional policies in an open economy","abstract":"We discuss unconventional policies in an open economy where financial intermediaries face occasionally binding collateral constraints. The model highlights interactions among the real exchange rate, interest rates, and financial frictions. The real exchange rate can affect international credit constraints via a net worth effect and a novel leverage ratio effect. Unconventional policies are non-neutral if financial constraints bind. Credit programs are most effective when targeted towards financial intermediaries. Sterilized interventions matter because the increased availability of tradables associated with sterilization relaxes financial frictions.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Luis Felipe Céspedes","Roberto Chang","Andrés Velasco"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d65cfdabc0a80f7e","title":"Lab and life: Does risky choice behaviour observed in experiments reflect that in the real world?","abstract":"Risk preferences play a crucial role in a great variety of economic decisions. Measuring risk preferences reliably is therefore an important challenge. In this paper we ask the question whether risk preferences observed in economic experiments reflect real-life risky choice behaviour. We investigate in a sample representative for a rural region of eastern Uganda whether pursuing farming strategies with both a higher expected profit and greater variance of profits is associated with willingness to take risks in an experiment. Controlling for other determinants of risk-taking in agriculture, we find that risky choice behaviour in the experiment is correlated with risky choice behaviour in real life in one domain, i.e. the purchase of fertiliser, but not in other domains, i.e. the growing of cash crops and market-orientation more broadly. Our findings suggest that economic experiments may be good at capturing real-world risky choice behaviour that is narrowly bracketed.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Arjan Verschoor","Ben D’Exelle","Borja Pérez-Viana"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.05.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d661806235f976e3","title":"Do Apprenticeships Pay? Evidence for England","abstract":"The importance of apprenticeships for early labour market transitions varies across countries and over time. In recent times, there has been a policy drive to increase the number of people undertaking apprenticeships in England. This is regarded as important for addressing poor productivity. We investigate whether there is a positive return to undertaking an apprenticeship for young people. We use detailed administrative data to track recent cohorts of young school leavers as they transition to the labour market. Our results suggest that apprenticeships lead to a positive average earnings return (at least in the short run), although there is stark variation between sectors. This is an important driver of the gender gap in earnings.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Chiara Cavaglia","Sandra McNally","Guglielmo Ventura"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12363","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d663b47b7ccc2876","title":"(Market) power is (political) power! The pressure of declining competition on democracy","abstract":"I study how the concentration of market power among a restricted set of corporates leads to a concentration of political power that ultimately undermines democracy. Despite being a topic of longstanding discussion, this type of mechanism lacks empirical confirmation or rejection. My paper addresses this gap by shedding light on two global trends: increasing aggregate markups and democratic backsliding. Using panel data covering 80 countries (1990–2019), I identify a negative relationship between market power and democracy. After correcting for potential endogeneity, counterfactual estimates reveal that around a quarter of the recent democratic decline can be attributed to the concentration of market power. A detailed firm-level analysis confirms that the democracy-weakening effect is driven by the increasing political influence of high-markup firms at the very top of the size distribution. The findings show that this concentration of power undermines democracy directly through institutional erosion—by increasing corruption in electoral processes and across multiple dimensions of democratic governance, such as policy-making, implementation, and regulation.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Seda Basihos"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d677395f7deff4a4","title":"The return to big-city experience: Evidence from refugees in Denmark","abstract":"We offer causal evidence of higher returns to experience in big cities. Exploiting a natural experiment that settled refugees across labor markets in Denmark between 1986 and 1998, we find that refugees initially earned similar wages across locations. However, those placed in Copenhagen exhibited 35% faster wage growth with each additional year of experience. Faster sorting of workers toward the type of establishments, occupations, and industries typically found in cities accounts for the vast majority of this urban wage-growth premium.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Fabian Eckert","Mads Hejlesen","Conor Walsh"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103454","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d692120a14f81d3a","title":"The market for conservation and other hostages","abstract":"A “conservation good” (such as a tropical forest) is owned by a seller who is tempted to consume (or cut), but a buyer benefits more from conservation. The seller prefers to conserve if the buyer is expected to buy, but the buyer is unwilling to pay as long as the seller conserves. This contradiction implies that the market for conservation cannot be efficient and conservation is likely to fail. A leasing market is inefficient for similar reasons and dominates the sales market if and only if the consumption value and the buyer's protection cost are large. The theory thus explains why optimal conservation often fails and why conservation abroad is leased, while domestic conservation is bought.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Bård Harstad"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2016.07.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d69644323b778b4a","title":"Sustainable agreements on stochastic river flow","abstract":"Many river sharing agreements in transboundary river basins are inherently unstable. Due to stochastic river flow, agreements may be broken in case of drought. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether river sharing agreements can be self-enforcing, or sustainable. We do so using an infinitely-repeated sequential game that we apply to several classes of agreements. To derive our main results we apply the equilibrium concepts of subgame-perfect equilibrium and renegotiation-proof equilibrium to the river sharing problem. We show that, given the upstream–downstream asymmetry, sustainable agreements allow downstream agents to reap the larger share of the benefits of cooperation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Erik Ansink","Harold Houba"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2016.02.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d697c380c8cbfab8","title":"Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic","abstract":"To slow the COVID-19 virus, many countries shut down parts of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in shuttered sectors have most to lose. We build a model in which economic activity and disease progression are jointly determined. Individuals differ by age, sector and health status. Disease transmission occurs at work, at home, through consumption, and in hospitals. Optimal economic shutdowns in 2020 are milder when taxes are distortionary, and when the government does not have access to debt. A harder, shorter shutdown is preferred when vaccines become available in early 2021.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Andrew Glover","Jonathan Heathcote","Dirk Krueger","José-V́ıctor Ŕıos-Rull"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.07.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d6a3d73138dae90a","title":"More than wine: Cultural ecosystem services in vineyard landscapes in England and California","abstract":"Vineyard landscapes provide cultural ecosystem services (CES), which have been little studied in previous ecosystem services research. To fill this gap, we assess perspectives of wine producers and residents regarding CES provided by vineyards in two wine regions: Southeast England, an emerging wine area, and the counties of Sonoma and Napa, California (hereafter: Sonoma and Napa), a more traditional wine area. We used Q-methodology to reveal the perspectives expressed by participants from both areas, each of whom ranked 44 Q-statements. We found that wine producers and local residents have different perceptions. In Southeast England, wine producers are more positive about vineyard landscapes than residents. Wine producers in Sonoma and Napa value CES directly connected with wine production, while residents emphasize CES that benefit nature conservation or entertainment. Comparing the regions, we conclude that Southeast England vineyards represent sometimes unwelcome development to residents, while in Sonoma and Napa they represent conservation of nature and tradition. Our findings show that perspectives on CES are experience- and context-dependent, as the perspectives on vineyards of residents and wine producers are strongly held but vary widely. Understanding these perspectives will help land use planners and regional politicians make better decisions for optimizing available CES.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Klara J. Winkler","Kimberly A. Nicholas"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.01.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d6a3ef6c4d9952eb","title":"Spinning the industrial revolution","abstract":"The prevailing explanation for why the industrial revolution occurred first in Britain during the last quarter of the eighteenth century is Allen's ‘high wage economy’ view, which claims that the high cost of labour relative to capital and fuel incentivized innovation and the adoption of new techniques. This article presents new empirical evidence on hand spinning before the industrial revolution and demonstrates that there was no such ‘high wage economy’ in spinning, which was a leading sector of industrialization. We quantify the working lives of frequently ignored female and child spinners who were crucial to the British textile industry with evidence of productivity and wages from the late sixteenth to the early nineteenth century. Spinning emerges as a widespread, low‐productivity, low‐wage employment, in which wages did not rise substantially in advance of the introduction of the jenny and water frame. The motivation for mechanization must be sought elsewhere.","wordCount":148,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Jane Humphries","Benjamin Schneider"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12693","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d6a429d924500766","title":"Behavioral risk profiling: Measuring loss aversion of individual investors","abstract":"Loss aversion has been shown to be a key driver of people's investment decisions. Encouraged by regulators, financial institutions are seeking ways to integrate this behavioral factor into client risk classifications. A critical obstacle is the lack of a valid measurement method for loss aversion that can be straightforwardly incorporated into existing processes. This paper reports on two large-scale implementations of such a method within the risk-profiling application of an established financial institution. We elicit loss aversion for 1,040 employees and 3,740 clients, observing distributions that align with existing findings. Importantly, our results demonstrate that loss aversion is largely independent of the risk-return preferences commonly used for investor classification. Furthermore, the correlations we observe between these two preferences and individuals’ background characteristics align with previous research: loss aversion is strongly correlated with education—higher educated individuals exhibit greater loss aversion—whereas risk aversion is related to gender, age, and financial status—women, older individuals, and those less financially secure are more risk averse. These findings support the conjecture that risk and loss aversion are complementary in capturing investor intent.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Dennie van Dolder","Jürgen Vandenbroucke"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107293","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d6b44e1855cd372f","title":"Global learning loss in student achievement: First estimates using comparable reading scores","abstract":"We estimate the global impact of COVID-19 on student reading using international achievement tests. We model the effect of school closures (full and partial) on achievement by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend using data from all rounds of PIRLS. Scores declined an average of 33 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to more than a year of schooling. Losses are larger for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures. While there are no differences by sex, lower-achieving students experienced larger losses. The educational loss may translate to a 0.68 percentage point reduction of GDP growth for a global loss of $66 trillion.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Maciej Jakubowski","Tomasz Gajderowicz","Harry Anthony Patrinos"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111313","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d6c6d1f8fcda2d96","title":"Air pollution from agricultural fires increases hypertension risk","abstract":"In many parts of the developing world, farmers widely use deliberate fires to burn vegetation and clear land to plant crops. These agricultural fires, however, are known to be associated with health costs due to increased air pollution. We contribute to underpinning the associated health cost estimates by studying the effects of these fires on hypertension risk. Despite being one of the leading causes of mortality globally, there is little direct evidence on how hypertension risk changes with exposure to pollution from agricultural fires. To overcome common data and empirical challenges in this setting, we match blood pressure readings from nearly 784,000 individuals across India with satellite data on 1.2 million agricultural fires, wind direction realizations, and local ambient air pollution. We find that the incidence of hypertension increases by 1.8% for each standard deviation increase in the number of upwind fires observed one day before the blood pressure readings. We find that the impact is stronger among older males, smokers, individuals that were already on blood pressure medication, and individuals belonging to socially marginalized groups. Our estimates suggest that agricultural fires in India lead to hypertension-related additional mortality, associated with USD 9 billion annually in costs.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Hemant Pullabhotla","Mateus Souza"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102723","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d6d660447aa97c2f","title":"Do Female Officers Improve Law Enforcement Quality? Effects on Crime Reporting and Domestic Violence","abstract":"We study the impact of the integration of women in U.S. policing between the late 1970s and early 1990s on violent crime reporting and domestic violence (DV). Along these two key dimensions, we find that female officers improved police quality. Crime victimization data reveal that as female representation increases among officers in an area, violent crimes against women in that area, and especially DV, are reported to the police at significantly higher rates. There are no such effects for violent crimes against men or from increases in the female share of civilian police employees. Furthermore, increases in female officer shares are followed by significant declines in rates of intimate partner homicide and non-fatal domestic abuse. These effects are all consistent between fixed effects models with controls for economic and policy variables and models that focus exclusively on increases in female police employment driven by externally imposed affirmative action plans following litigation for employment discrimination.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Amalia R. Miller","Carmit Segal"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy051","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d6dd35192b5946ee","title":"Leading patent breadth, endogenous quality choice, and economic growth","abstract":"O’Donoghue and Zweimüller (2004, J. Econ. Growth 9(1), 81-123), a seminal work, showed that broadening leading breadth in patent protection can stimulate innovation. However, the empirical literature has consistently found skeptical results on the positive effect. To fill the gap, we build another framework where the quality improvement size is derived as an interior solution. In our model, broadening leading breadth can negatively affect innovation because each innovator is incentivized to free-ride the other innovators’ quality improvements. As a further analysis, we quantitatively investigate the growth effect of intervention in patent licensing negotiations using two different profit division rules derived from a cooperative game. We find that intervention in patent licensing negotiations increases the growth rate and stabilizes the economy.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Keishun Suzuki","Shin Kishimoto"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103697","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d6dd65290202cff8","title":"State-owned enterprises and economic growth: Evidence from the post-Lehman period","abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on economic growth in 30 European countries in the period between 2010 and 2016. We build a unique dataset on the economic weight of SOEs based on the data of more than 130,000 large nonfinancial companies. In our regression analysis, we condition the growth effect of SOEs on different measures of institutional quality. According to our results, SOEs are not positive or negative for growth per se. Their impact hinges crucially upon the country’s institutions: with good (bad) institutions the effect of SOEs is more beneficial (detrimental), turning into significantly positive (negative) in the right-tail (left-tail) of the sample distribution of institutional quality. This result holds through a wide array of robustness checks. The policy conclusion is that with good institutions the positive external effects of SOEs may outweigh the loss in economic growth caused by SOEs’ possible inefficiencies.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Katarzyna Szarzec","Ákos Dombi","Piotr Matuszak"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","P","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.03.009","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d6de4d0ddc7d3ee4","title":"Price setting on the two sides of the Atlantic - Evidence from supermarket scanner data","abstract":"The paper finds that both higher frequency and stronger state dependence of price changes contribute to higher inflation volatility in the US. Both factors are attributed to larger product-level fluctuations in the US. The paper shows that a model with mildly state-dependent price setting represents empirical facts well and can explain a sizable share of the differences in inflation volatility between the US and the euro area and differences in inflation response to the COVID-19 shock between Germany and Italy. We compare supermarket price setting in the US and the euro area and assess its impact on food inflation. We introduce a novel scanner dataset of Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Italy (EA4) and contrast it with an equivalent dataset from the US. We find that both higher frequency and stronger state dependence of price changes contribute to higher flexibility of supermarket inflation in the US relative to the euro area. We argue that the driving force behind both factors is higher cross-sectional volatility in the US. Larger product-level fluctuations both force retailers to adjust prices more frequently and increase price misalignments, which increase the selection of large price changes. Both facts are well represented by a mildly state-dependent price-setting model, and they jointly explain over a third of the difference in food-inflation volatility between the US and the euro area as well as around a third of the difference between the inflation responses to the COVID-19 shock in Germany and Italy.","wordCount":242,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Péter Karádi","Juergen Amann","Javier Sánchez Bachiller","Pascal Seiler","Jesse Wursten"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d6e141208a68a8f1","title":"Periods of uncertainty are linked to greater acceptance of minorities","abstract":"Contrary to widely held views, an uncertain world may advance social cohesion. Uncertainty affects people in various ways. It is frequently found to hinder investment and production in the economic sphere. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between uncertainty and tolerance toward Muslims and Jews. Does uncertainty make people more or less tolerant? This question is particularly relevant given the prevalence of pandemics, wars, and financial crises. We investigate this relationship using the World Uncertainty Index, which measures the frequency of the word “uncertain” (and its variants) in The Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. By analyzing quarterly data from up to 56 countries between 1990 and 2020, we link country-level uncertainty to approximately 227,000 individual responses from the World Values Survey/European Values Study regarding whether respondents would like to have Jews or Muslims as neighbors. Leveraging the precise timing of survey interviews, we relate individual attitudes to prevailing uncertainty levels. Our results indicate a positive relationship between uncertainty and both tolerance indicators. Thus, for those concerned with attitudes toward minorities often subjected to prejudice, calm periods may pose greater risks to tolerance than volatile periods.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Niclas Berggren","Andreas Bergh","Thérèse Nilsson"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d6e4832b3273dc79","title":"To FinTech and Beyond","abstract":"FinTech is about the introduction of new technologies into the financial sector, and it is now revolutionizing the financial industry. In 2017, when the academic finance community was not actively researching FinTech, the editorial team of the Review of Financial Studies launched a competition to develop research proposals focused on this topic. This special issue is the result. In this introductory article, we describe the recent FinTech phenomenon and the novel editorial protocol employed for this special issue following the Registered Reports format. We discuss what we learned from the submitted proposals about the field of FinTech and which ones we selected to be completed and ultimately come out in this special issue. We also provide several observations to help guide future research in the emerging area of FinTech.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Itay Goldstein","Wei Jiang","George Andrew Karolyi"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz025","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d6ec7645241fc5a8","title":"Income inequality and entrepreneurship: Lessons from the 2020 COVID-19 recession","abstract":"We study entry into entrepreneurship during the COVID-19 recession of 2020 using new data from an extensive survey of more than 24,000 Spanish households, conducted between June and November 2020. We find that while the overall decline in the startup rate in 2020 was large, and of a similar magnitude as that during the Great Recession, the differential impact depending on ex ante income was starkly different. During 2020, the drop in firm entry was entirely concentrated among low- and medium-income households. We show that the entrepreneurship gap between these households and their high-income counterparts is not directly explained by social distancing, since it is mostly driven by the sectors not directly affected by lockdown measures, and it is larger among households that did not suffer a negative income shock during the pandemic. Our results instead indicate that high-income households performed relatively better during the COVID-19 recession because they had the means to exploit new business opportunities, thanks to their larger wealth and better access to external finance.","wordCount":168,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Christoph Albert","Andrea Caggese","Beatriz González","Victor Martin‐Sanchez"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106779","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d7058a024e13c387","title":"Hedging mortality risk over the life‐cycle—The role of information and borrowing constraints","abstract":"Many pension schemes offer annuities pooling mortality risk across members. Such pooling has been criticized for having a regressive bias benefitting risk classes with the longest expected longevity. However, knowledge on mortality risk unfolds over the life‐course, and it is optimal for risk averse households to annuitize all old‐age consumption already as young buying pooled contracts, even if fair annuities are available later in life or risk class is private information. Borrowing constraints impair such frontloading but are lessened by a mandated pooled annuity targeting the middle‐aged, improving welfare for all risk classes and the first‐best allocation may be implementable.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Torben M. Andersen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13250","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d72091239c9a3da8","title":"Industrial Policies in Production Networks","abstract":"Many developing economies adopt industrial policies favoring selected sectors. Is there an economic logic to this type of intervention? I analyze industrial policy when economic sectors form a production network via input-output linkages. Market imperfections generate distortionary effects that compound through backward demand linkages, causing upstream sectors to become the sink for imperfections and have the greatest size distortions. My key finding is that the distortion in sectoral size is a sufficient statistic for the social value of promoting that sector; thus, there is an incentive for a well-meaning government to subsidize upstream sectors. Furthermore, sectoral interventions’ aggregate effects can be simply summarized, to first order, by the cross-sector covariance between my sufficient statistic and subsidy spending. My sufficient statistic predicts sectoral policies in South Korea in the 1970s and modern-day China, suggesting that sectoral interventions might have generated positive aggregate effects in these economies.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Ernest Liu"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz024","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d728b71643520308","title":"Does Algorithmic Trading Reduce Information Acquisition?","abstract":"I demonstrate an important tension between acquiring information and incorporating it into asset prices. As a salient case, I analyze algorithmic trading (AT), which is typically associated with improved price efficiency. Using a new measure of the information content of prices and a comprehensive panel of 54, 879 stock-quarters of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) market data, I establish instead that the amount of information in prices decreases by 9% to 13% per standard deviation of AT activity and up to a month before scheduled disclosures. AT thus may reduce price informativeness despite its importance for translating available information into prices.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Brian Weller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx137","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d7326fa6a4873952","title":"Substitution between Clean and Dirty Energy Inputs: A Macroeconomic Perspective","abstract":"In macroeconomic models, the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs within the energy aggregate is a central parameter in assessing the necessary conditions for long-run green growth. Using new sectoral data in a panel of 26 countries, we formulate specifications of nested constant elasticity of substitution production functions that allow estimating this parameter for the first time. We present evidence that it significantly exceeds unity, a favorable condition for promoting green growth.","wordCount":75,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Chris Papageorgiou","Marianne Saam","P. Schulte"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00592","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d74bb8b2b0f38a6b","title":"Do Personality Traits Affect Productivity? Evidence from the Laboratory","abstract":"While survey data supports a strong relationship between personality and labour market outcomes, the exact mechanisms behind this association remain unexplored. We take advantage of a controlled laboratory set‐up to explore whether this relationship operates through productivity. Using a real‐effort task, we analyse the impact of the Big Five personality traits on performance. We find that more neurotic subjects perform worse, and that more conscientious individuals perform better. These findings suggest that at least part of the effect of personality on labour market outcomes operates through productivity. In addition, we find evidence that gender and university major affect this relationship.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["María Cubel","Ana Nuevo‐Chiquero","Santiago Sánchez‐Pagés","Marian Vidal-Fernández"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12373","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d75875b66fd519a4","title":"Credit rationing in P2P lending to SMEs: Do lender-borrower relationships matter?","abstract":"This paper studies the role of individual P2P investors that are acquainted with the borrower in mitigating credit rationing in P2P lending to SMEs. I use proprietary data provided by one of the biggest Dutch P2P lending platforms, on which personal acquaintances of the borrower are able to invest before other P2P investors do. I find that P2P investors invest more in loans of borrowers to whom they are personally acquainted. More initial investment by investors acquainted with the borrower is subsequently associated with a higher likelihood of obtaining a second loan from the P2P lender, larger investments by other P2P investors and lower ex post defaults. These results are consistent with informal lenders having superior information or monitoring skills and rational herding following informal investors' investment decisions.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Rients Galema"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101742","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d76027c092fd4a84","title":"Recent Developments at DG Competition: 2017/2018","abstract":"The Directorate General for Competition at the European Commission enforces competition law in the areas of antitrust, merger control, and state aids. This year's article provides first a general presentation of the role of the Chief Competition Economist's team and surveys some of the main achievements of the Directorate General for Competition over 2017/2018. The article then reviews: the Google Search (Shopping) case, the role of price discrimination in state aid cases; and the use of counterfactuals in merger cases where alternative transactions might have occurred absent the merger.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Andréa Amelio","Thomas Buettner","Cyril Hariton","Gábor Koltay","Penelope Papandropoulos","Geza Sapi","Tommaso Valletti","Hans Zenger"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-018-9671-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d762bbd8a0f4fd1c","title":"Political salaries, electoral selection and the incumbency advantage: Evidence from a wage reform","abstract":"Incumbents tend to gain solid electoral advantage in many voting systems. In this study, we examine the relationship between salaries prescribed to politicians and the incumbency advantage by exploiting a political wage reform and data from close elections in a proportional semi-open list system in the Czech Republic. We show that higher salaries reduce the average incumbency advantage, as they increase the probability to run again for previously non-elected candidates much more than for incumbents. Still, we find that higher wages improve candidate selection, especially by encouraging repeated candidacy from university-educated incumbents. Higher wages also improve relative positions of re-running incumbents on candidate lists compared to previously non-elected re-running candidates. Our results overall suggest that incumbency per se changes the relationship between political wages and candidate selection.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Ján Palguta","Filip Pertold"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.04.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d763d9e0ed40c257","title":"Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations","abstract":"We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals’ inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. Reading the actual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. Reading news articles about the most recent FOMC meetings results in a forecast revision that is smaller by half. This exogenous variation in inflation expectations has subsequent effects on household spending reported in scanner and survey data.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Olivier Coibion","Yuriy Gorodnichenko","Michael Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718982","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d768c6b3c6463804","title":"Switching Costs and Competition in Retirement Investment","abstract":"How do different switching costs affect choices and competition in a private pension system? I answer this question in a setting in which variation in employment status allows me to identify two switching costs that jointly affect enrollees’ decisions: the cost of evaluating financial information and the cost of the bureaucratic process that enrollees must navigate when switching. I use this variation to estimate the different switching costs and study their impact on competition among pension funds. I find that though eliminating all switching costs decreases equilibrium fees the most, eliminating either switching cost decreases fees significantly. JEL (D14, G23, J26, J32, O15)","wordCount":103,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Fernando Luco"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160332","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d776b159b44ceb38","title":"Electricity balancing as a market equilibrium: An instrument-based estimation of supply and demand for imbalance energy","abstract":"Frequency stability requires equalizing supply and demand for electricity at short time scales. Such electricity balancing is often understood as a sequential process in which random shocks, such as weather events, cause imbalances that system operators close by activating balancing reserves. By contrast, we study electricity balancing as a market where the equilibrium price (imbalance price) and quantity (system imbalance) are determined by supply and demand. System operators supply imbalance energy by activating reserves; market parties that, deliberately or not, deviate from schedules create a demand for imbalance energy. The incentives for deliberate strategic deviations emerge from wholesale market prices and the imbalance price. We empirically estimate the demand curve of imbalance energy, which describes how sensitive market parties are to imbalance prices. To overcome the classical endogeneity problem of price and quantity, we deploy instruments derived from a novel theoretical framework. Using data from Germany, we find a decline in the demand for imbalance energy by 2.2 MW for each increase in the imbalance price by EUR 1 per MWh. This significant price response is remarkable because the German regulator prohibits strategic deviations. We also estimate cross-market equilibriums between intraday and imbalance markets, finding that a shock to the imbalance price triggers a subsequent adjustment of the intraday price.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Anselm Eicke","Oliver Ruhnau","Lion Hirth"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105455","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d784b692448de53a","title":"Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity","abstract":"We study the interactions between sovereign debt default and maturity choice in a setting with limited commitment for repayment as well as future debt issuances. Our main finding is that, under a wide range of conditions, the sovereign should, as long as default is not preferable, remain passive in long‐term bond markets, making payments and retiring long‐term bonds as they mature but never actively issuing or buying back such bonds. The only active debt‐management margin is the short‐term bond market. We show that any attempt to manipulate the existing maturity profile of outstanding long‐term bonds generates losses, as bond prices move against the sovereign. Our results hold regardless of the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve captures the average costs of financing at different maturities but is misleading regarding the marginal costs.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Mark Aguiar","Manuel Amador","Hugo A. Hopenhayn","Iván Werning"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14806","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d794ef9a6fefc1a7","title":"Perceptions of personal and public risk: Dissociable effects on behavior and well-being","abstract":"When faced with a global threat peoples’ perception of risk guides their response. When danger is to the self as well as to others two risk estimates are generated—to the self and to others. Here, we set out to examine how people’s perceptions of health risk to the self and others are related to their psychological well-being and behavioral response. To that end, we surveyed a large representative sample of Americans facing the COVID-19 pandemic at two times (N 1 = 1145, N 2 = 683). We found that people perceived their own risk to be relatively low, while estimating the risk to others as relatively high. These risk estimates were differentially associated with psychological well-being and behavior. In particular, perceived personal but not public risk was associated with people’s happiness, while both were predictive of anxiety. In contrast, the tendency to engage in protective behaviors were predicted by peoples’ estimated risk to the population, but not to themselves. This raises the possibility that people were predominantly engaging in protective behaviors for the benefit of others. The findings can inform public policy aimed at protecting people’s psychological well-being and physical health during global threats.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Laura K. Globig","Bastien Blain","Tali Sharot"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09373-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d795c3bb7b3198e1","title":"War and socialism: why eastern Europe fell behind between 1950 and 1989","abstract":"This article reconsiders the relative growth performance of centrally planned economies in the broader context of postwar growth in Europe. It reports a new dataset of revised estimates for investment rates in eastern European countries between 1950 and 1989. Complemented with data on other growth determinants, this evidence is used to re‐evaluate the socialist growth record in a conditional convergence framework with a panel of 24 European countries. After controlling for relative backwardness, investment rates, and improvements in human capital, the findings show that centrally planned economies underperformed due to their relative inefficiency only after the postwar golden age. In the 1950s and 1960s, eastern Europe was falling behind mainly due to relatively low levels of investment and weak reconstruction dynamics. Both are explained, in part, by the lack of labour‐supply flexibility that, in turn, resulted from the comparatively much larger negative impact of the war on population growth in eastern Europe.","wordCount":152,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Tamás Vonyó"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","R","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12336","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d796123fa9abc4b8","title":"Testing strict stationarity with applications to macroeconomic time series","abstract":"We propose a model‐free test for strict stationarity. The idea is to estimate a nonparametric time‐varying characteristic function and compare it with the empirical characteristic function based on the whole sample. We also propose several derivative tests to check time‐invariant moments, weak stationarity, and p th order stationarity. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate excellent power of our tests. We apply our tests to various macroeconomic time series and find overwhelming evidence against strict and weak stationarity for both level and first‐differenced series. This suggests that the conventional time series econometric modeling strategies may have room to be improved by accommodating these time‐varying features.","wordCount":102,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Yongmiao Hong","Xia Wang","Shouyang Wang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12250","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d7af05481d9973f6","title":"Coal Smoke, City Growth, and the Costs of the Industrial Revolution","abstract":"This article provides the first rigorous estimates of how industrial air pollution from coal burning affects long-run city growth. I introduce a new theoretically grounded strategy for estimating this relationship and apply it to data from highly polluted British cities from 1851 to 1911. I show that local industrial coal use substantially reduced long-run city employment and population growth. Moreover, a counterfactual analysis suggests that plausible improvements in coal-use efficiency would have led to a higher urbanisation rate in Britain by 1911. These findings contribute to our understanding of the effects of air pollution and the environmental costs of industrialisation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["W. Walker Hanlon"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d7ddc8fdd36ed566","title":"The Interest Rate Elasticity of Mortgage Demand: Evidence from Bunching at the Conforming Loan Limit","abstract":"This paper provides novel estimates of the interest rate elasticity of mortgage demand by measuring the degree of bunching in response to a discrete jump in interest rates at the conforming loan limit—the maximum loan size eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reduces first mortgage demand by between 2 and 3 percent. One-third of this response is driven by borrowers who take out second mortgages, which implies that total mortgage debt only declines by 1.5 to 2 percent.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Anthony DeFusco","Andrew Paciorek"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140108","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d7e4c73928d03e7a","title":"The Effect of Regulation on Broadband Markets: Evaluating the Empirical Evidence in the FCC’s 2015 “Open Internet” Order","abstract":"In 2015, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) imposed common carriage regulation—so-called Title II requirements—on previously unregulated broadband Internet service providers. The regime shift was premised on the FCC’s findings that such rules had demonstrably yielded economic gains. This paper evaluates the FCC’s empirical arguments and finds them uncompelling. Adjustments for inflation or general economic trends eliminate the effects cited by the FCC. Moreover, contrary to the Commission’s assessment, mobile services and broadband markets have shown notable growth in response to deregulatory events that reduce Title II requirements.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Thomas W. Hazlett","Joshua D. Wright"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-016-9556-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d7e7067b75fbdd94","title":"Brown bonds in a green world: Are investors punishing high-carbon issuers with illiquidity?","abstract":"Carbon-intense sectors remain economically attractive to investors We investigate whether corporate bond liquidity is negatively impacted by issuers' carbon intensity, particularly given the rising share of sustainably investing bond funds. Using several established illiquidity measures, we analyze the long-term impact of carbon performance on bond illiquidity. We do not find conclusive evidence that carbon intensity leads to bond illiquidity; however, we find evidence that bonds from high-carbon issuers exhibited heightened illiquidity around the Paris Agreement. A higher share of funds holding low-carbon portfolios does not seem to be associated with improved liquidity in low-carbon bonds. Despite the growing market share of sustainability-oriented funds, continued investment in brown bonds suggests that carbon-intensive sectors remain economically attractive to investors.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Alexander Schoeffel","Florian Kiesel","Martin Geissdoerfer","Lukas Mueller","Dirk Schiereck"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101691","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d7f2fafae7ae17c6","title":"Reopening schools in a context of low COVID-19 contagion: consequences for teachers, students and their parents","abstract":"Knowing how school reopenings affect the spread of COVID-19 is crucial when balancing children's right to schooling with contagion management. This paper considers the effects on COVID-19 testing prevalence and the positive test rate of reopening Norwegian schools after a 6-week closure aimed at reducing contagion. We estimate the effects of school reopening on teachers, parents and students using an event study/difference-in-differences design that incorporates comparison groups with minimal exposure to in-person schooling. We find no evidence that COVID-19 incidence increased following reopening among students, parents or teachers pooled across grade levels. We find some suggestive evidence that infection rates among upper secondary school teachers increased; however, the effects are small and transitory. At low levels of contagion, schools can safely be reopened when other social distancing policies remain in place.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Anna Godøy","Maja Weemes Grøtting","Rannveig Kaldager Hart"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00882-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d7f54ca59240a125","title":"Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China","abstract":"We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009–2010. We match confidential loan-level data from the nineteen largest Chinese banks with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We document that the stimulus-driven credit expansion disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower average product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation toward private firms that characterized China’s high growth before 2008. We argue that implicit government guarantees for state-connected firms become more prominent during recessions and can explain this reversal.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Lin William Cong","Haoyu Gao","Jacopo Ponticelli","Xiaoguang Yang"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz008","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d7fbd91eba4a4289","title":"Will the last be the first? School closures and educational outcomes","abstract":"Governments have implemented school closures and online learning as one of the main tools to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Despite the potential benefits in terms of containment of virus diffusion, the educational costs of these policies may be dramatic. This work identifies these costs, expressed as decrease in test scores, for the whole universe of Italian students attending the 5th, 8th and 13th grade of the school cycle during the 2021/22 school year. The analysis is based on a difference-in-difference model in relative time, where the control group is the closest generation before the Covid-19 pandemic. Results suggest a national average loss between 1.8-4.0% in Mathematics and Italian test scores. After collecting the precise number of school closure days for the universe of students in Sicily, this work also estimates that the average days of closure decrease the test score by 2.4%. In this context, parents appear to have a partial compensatory effect, but only when holding higher levels of education and when their children are attending low and middle schools. This is likely explained by the lower relevance of parental inputs and higher reliance on other inputs, such as peers, for the higher grades. Finally, the effects are also heterogeneous across class size, parents' country of birth and job conditions, pointing towards potential growing inequalities driven by the lack of frontal teaching.","wordCount":224,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Michèle Battisti","Giuseppe Maggio"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104405","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d80f263647c84890","title":"Can Innovation Help U.S. Manufacturing Firms Escape Import Competition from China?","abstract":"We study whether R&D‐intensive firms are more resilient to trade shocks. We correct for the endogeneity of R&D using tax‐induced changes to R&D costs. While rising imports from China lead to slower sales growth and lower profitability, these effects are significantly smaller for firms with a larger stock of R&D (about half when moving from the bottom quartile to the top quartile of R&D). We provide evidence that this effect is explained by R&D allowing firms to increase product differentiation. As a result, while firms in import‐competing industries cut capital expenditures and employment, R&D‐intensive firms downsize considerably less.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Johan Hombert","Adrien Matray"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12691","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d81be47ab260d3a1","title":"Stability of strict equilibria in best experienced payoff dynamics: Simple formulas and applications","abstract":"We consider a family of population game dynamics known as Best Experienced Payoff Dynamics. Under these dynamics, when agents are given the opportunity to revise their strategy, they test some of their possible strategies a fixed number of times. Crucially, each strategy is tested against a new randomly drawn set of opponents. The revising agent then chooses the strategy whose total payoff was highest in the test, breaking ties according to a given tie-breaking rule. Strict Nash equilibria are rest points of these dynamics, but need not be stable. We provide some simple formulas and algorithms to determine the stability or instability of strict Nash equilibria.","wordCount":106,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Segismundo S. Izquierdo","Luis R. Izquierdo"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105553","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d830171caacb10c5","title":"The pro-competitive effects of trade agreements","abstract":"How does trade policy affect competition? Using the universe of product exports by firms from eleven low and middle-income countries, we document that tariff reductions under trade agreements have strong pro-competitive effects – they encourage entry and reduce the (tariff exclusive) price-cost markups of exporters. This finding, that markups fall with tariff cuts, contradicts a core prediction of standard oligopolistic competition models of trade. We extend a workhorse international pricing model of oligopolistic competition to include multiple countries and a rich preference structure. Our preference structure allows for fierce competition among firms from the same country and less intense competition among firms from different countries. We show a firm’s optimal markup after a tariff cut can rise or fall depending on the parameters of the preference structure and tariff-induced reallocation of market share among firms and across countries.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Meredith A. Crowley","Lu Han","Thomas Prayer"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103936","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d8360bc487397366","title":"Posterior distribution of nondifferentiable functions","abstract":"This paper examines the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution of a possibly nondifferentiable function g(θ), where θ is a finite-dimensional parameter of either a parametric or semiparametric model. The main assumption is that the distribution of a suitable estimator θ̂n, its bootstrap approximation, and the Bayesian posterior for θ all agree asymptotically. It is shown that whenever g is locally Lipschitz, though not necessarily differentiable, the posterior distribution of g(θ) and the bootstrap distribution of g(θ̂n) coincide asymptotically. One implication is that Bayesians can interpret bootstrap inference for g(θ) as approximately valid posterior inference in a large sample. Another implication—built on known results about bootstrap inconsistency—is that credible intervals for a nondifferentiable parameter g(θ) cannot be presumed to be approximately valid confidence intervals (even when this relation holds true for θ).","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Toru Kitagawa","José Luis Montiel Olea","Jonathan L. Payne","Amilcar Velez"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.10.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d83a35d68c38ab8c","title":"The impact of urban redevelopment for mitigating earthquake damage risk on land values","abstract":"We examine the impact of urban redevelopment for mitigating earthquake damage risk on land values using a spatial regression discontinuity (RD) design. Our analysis exploits the risk discontinuity at the boundaries of dense urban districts with extremely high earthquake damage risk (high-risk DUDs) in Tokyo, using data on high-risk DUDs in 2012, 2017, and 2020. The cross-sectional RD estimates demonstrate that land values are consistently higher just outside than just inside the boundaries of high-risk DUDs that existed in 2012 but were removed by 2017 under urban redevelopment initiatives. The RD estimates further reveal that the discontinuous gap in land values at the boundaries of the former high-risk DUDs diminished over time. The differences in the RD estimates before and after the removal of high-risk DUDs between 2012 and 2017 indicate that this removal reduced the discontinuity at the former high-risk DUD boundaries, leading to a relative increase in land values of 1.5% by 2017 and 2.0% by 2020. These findings suggest that mitigating earthquake damage risk through urban redevelopment contributes to a progressive appreciation in land values.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Mizuki Kawabata","Michio Naoi","Shohei Yasuda"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104144","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d83dc7a889fd48be","title":"Misclassification in binary choice models","abstract":"Bias from misclassification of binary dependent variables can be pronounced. We examine what can be learned from such contaminated data. First, we derive the asymptotic bias in parametric models allowing misclassification to be correlated with observables and unobservables. Simulations and validation data show that the bias formulas are accurate in finite samples and in most situations imply attenuation. Second, we examine the bias in a prototypical application. Erroneously restricting the covariance of misclassification and covariates aggravates the bias for all estimators we examine. Estimators that relax this restriction perform well if a model of misclassification or validation data is available.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Bruce Meyer","Nikolas Mittag"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.06.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d8491c1e924cdd7f","title":"Returns from liquidity provision in cryptocurrency markets","abstract":"We examine the liquidity provision premium in cryptocurrency markets using the returns from the short reversal strategy. We show that returns from liquidity provision can be predicted using the volatility index, realized variance, risk aversion, crash risk, tail risk, and innovations of Tether liquidity. We also find that an increase in the liquidity provision premium is associated with a decline in liquidity, trading volume, and transaction count, as well as more withdrawals, higher fees, and greater impermanent loss on Uniswap. This suggests potential competition between centralized and decentralized exchanges. Further, the liquidity provision premium of stock markets in China and Japan positively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (effect of a common shock), meanwhile that of stock markets in the US and Canada negatively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (substitution effect).","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Hisham Farag","Di Luo","Larisa Yarovaya","Damian Zięba"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107411","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d85fc9fed9674547","title":"Agricultural input credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Telling myth from facts","abstract":"Recent evidence shows that many Sub-Saharan African farmers use modern inputs, but there is limited information on how these inputs are financed. We use recent nationally representative data from four countries to explore input financing and the role of credit therein. A number of our results contradict \"conventional wisdom\" found in the literature. Our results consistently show that traditional credit use, formal or informal, is extremely low (across credit type, country, crop and farm size categories). Instead, farmers primarily finance modern input purchases with cash from nonfarm activities and crop sales. Tied output-labor arrangements (which have received little empirical treatment in the literature) appear to be the only form of credit relatively widely used for farming.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Serge Adjognon","Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool‐Tasie","Thomas Reardon"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d862faefe81862ba","title":"Price setting frequency and the Phillips curve","abstract":"We develop a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous price setting frequency. Whether a firm updates its price is a discrete choice: when expected benefits outweigh expected costs, prices are reset optimally. The model gives rise to a non-linear Phillips curve as prices are more flexible during demand-driven expansions and less so during demand-driven recessions. Monetary policy can have substantial real effects despite the model having a state-dependent pricing component. Our quantitative analysis shows that contrary to the standard NK model, the assumed price setting behaviour: (i) is consistent with micro data on price setting frequency; (ii) generates a direct effect of the time-varying price setting frequency on inflation; (iii) creates time-variation in the Phillips curve slope that explains shifts in the Phillips curve associated with different historical episodes; (iv) explains inflation dynamics without relying on implausible high cost-push shocks and nominal rigidities inconsistent with micro data; (v) reconciles the NK model with observed inflation moments.","wordCount":156,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Emanuel Gasteiger","Alex Grimaud"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104535","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d869bfba84f322b9","title":"Material and social deprivation among one-person households: the role of gender","abstract":"We explore whether gender has a statistically significant impact on material and social deprivation of single adults after accounting for other characteristics. We use data from the 2022 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey for six European countries. By assuming deprivation as an individual latent trait and by treating different deprivation levels as ranked categories, we estimate a proportional odds model separately by country. Our findings suggest a clear role for gender, i.e., the risk of being materially and socially deprived is relatively higher for women everywhere. The novelty is that facing “unexpected expenses” is the worst trouble for women, clearly coming from relative financial and economic fragility. Individual characteristics play a more important role than more aggregate indicators at explaining the risk of material and social deprivation. Finally, the estimated gender gap is robust to a large set of changes in model specification and assumptions.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Enrico Fabrizi","Chiara Mussida","Maria Laura Parisi"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-025-01084-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d86b2140dabceb72","title":"Accounting for the slowdown in <scp>UK</scp> innovation and productivity","abstract":"This paper conducts a comprehensive sources‐of‐growth analysis for the UK market sector, 2000–19, using the latest ONS data, including new estimates of intangible investment, double deflated value‐added, and updated price indices, all constructed bottom‐up from data for 40 industries. The decomposition incorporates contributions from intangible assets, both capitalized and uncapitalized, in national accounts. Our main findings are that first, slowdowns in labour productivity are largest in more intangible‐, knowledge‐, technology‐ and digital‐intensive industries, using numerous definitions. Second, the labour productivity slowdown can be accounted for largely by a slowdown in ‘innovation’, where innovation is shorthand for contributions of intangible capital deepening and TFP growth. We show that: (a) the level of labour productivity in 2019 was 27 log points (31 percentage points) less than had it continued to grow at its 2000–7 rate; (b) reallocation of labour did not contribute to the slowdown; (c) capitalization of the full range of intangibles accounts for 5% of the slowdown; (d) 35% is accounted for by a slowdown in capital deepening (25% tangible, 10% intangible), and 78% by a slowdown in TFP growth; and (e) less than one‐tenth of the TFP slowdown can be accounted for by exceptionally fast growth pre‐crisis.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Peter Goodridge","Jonathan Haskel"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12468","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d89130a463f51ddb","title":"Who Captures the Power of the Pen?","abstract":"We study how political capture affects the corporate governance role of the media. Relying on a unique media market in China that is characterized by the prevalence of both state-controlled and market-oriented media, we manually construct a comprehensive financial news sample containing 80,008 articles during the 2004–2010 period and provide evidence that negative coverage by the market-oriented media significantly increases the chance of forced top executive turnover, whereas similar coverage by the state-controlled media has no such impact. A multi-pronged approach that includes an instrumental variable test, an exogenous event, firm fixed effects, and change-in-change specifications provides positive evidence of the casual link. Further analysis reveals that the disciplinary effect of the market-oriented media is stronger for firms that are less likely to be influenced by political capture, such as non-state-owned firms or firms located in provinces with good institutions.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Jiaxing You","Bohui Zhang","Le Zhang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d8ad95bcf66977aa","title":"Information design through scarcity and social learning","abstract":"We show that a firm may benefit from strategically creating scarcity for its product, in order to trigger herding behaviour from consumers in situations where such behaviour is otherwise unlikely. We consider a setting with social learning, where consumers observe sales from previous cohorts and update beliefs about product quality before making their purchase. Imposing a capacity constraint directly limits sales but also makes information coarser for consumers, who react favourably to a sell-out because they infer only that demand must exceed capacity. Consumer learning is then limited even with large cohorts and unbounded private signals, because the firm acts strategically to influence the consumers' learning environment. Our results suggest that in suitable environments capacity constraints can serve as a useful tool to implement optimal information design in practice: if private signals are not too precise and capacity can be changed over time, then in large markets the firm's optimal choice of capacity delivers the same expected sales as the Bayesian persuasion solution.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Alexei Parakhonyak","Nick Vikander"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105586","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d8b4dcc3a69d4e0f","title":"Consumer Borrowing after Payday Loan Bans","abstract":"High-interest payday loans have proliferated in recent years; so too have efforts to regulate them. Yet how borrowers respond to such regulations remains largely unknown. Drawing on both administrative and survey data, we exploit variation in payday-lending laws to study the effect of payday loan restrictions on consumer borrowing. We find that although such policies are effective at reducing payday lending, consumers respond by shifting to other forms of high-interest credit (for example, pawnshop loans) rather than traditional credit instruments (for example, credit cards). Such shifting is present, but less pronounced, for the lowest-income payday loan users. Our results suggest that policies that target payday lending in isolation may be ineffective at reducing consumers’ reliance on high-interest credit.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Neil Bhutta","Jacob Goldin","Tatiana Homonoff"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d8b77a6b255cb31d","title":"The Business of American Democracy: <i>Citizens United</i>, Independent Spending, and Elections","abstract":"In Citizens United v. FEC, the US Supreme Court ruled that restrictions on independent political expenditures by corporations and labor unions are unconstitutional. We analyze the effects of Citizens United on state election outcomes. We find that Citizens United is associated with an increase in Republicans’ election probabilities in state house races of approximately 4 percentage points overall and 10 or more percentage points in several states. We link these estimates to on-the-ground evidence of significant spending by corporations through channels enabled by Citizens United. We also explore the effects of Citizens United on reelection rates, candidates’ entry, and direct contributions and discuss implications for national elections and economic policy.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Tilman Klumpp","Hugo M. Mialon","Michael A. Williams"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/685691","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d8c1a5a8eb068cba","title":"The age for austerity? Population age structure and fiscal consolidation multipliers","abstract":"Advanced economies face two important trends: population aging and rising debt. In the coming years, it will be critical to understand how policies undertaken by governments interact with their changing age structures. In a panel of advanced economies, I show that fiscal deficit consolidation multipliers are highly sensitive to changes in population age. The demographic transmission of fiscal shocks differs between spending cuts and tax hikes, with important variation within working age and across dependent groups. Tax increases lead to weaker output response in relatively young economies, strengthening as population weights move to middle age, and falling again with large shares of retirees. Output response to spending, on the other hand, shows little change with demographics. The transmission of both policies to fiscal deficits suggests significant age dependence, with important impacts on multipliers when constructed as the ratio of cumulative output and deficit effects. Projecting forward, my estimates expect smaller multipliers as the baby boomer cohort fully retires, with demographics accommodating both tax and spending consolidations in terms of stronger deficit improvements, with tax policy displaying weaker output response.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Joseph Kopecky"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103444","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d8c437b72728f38e","title":"The persistent effect of initial success: Evidence from venture capital","abstract":"We use investment-level data to study performance persistence in venture capital (VC). Consistent with prior studies, we find that each additional initial public offering (IPO) among a VC firm’s first ten investments predicts as much as an 8% higher IPO rate on its subsequent investments, though this effect erodes with time. In exploring its sources, we document several additional facts: successful outcomes stem in large part from investing in the right places at the right times; VC firms do not persist in their ability to choose the right places and times to invest; but early success does lead to investing in later rounds and in larger syndicates. This pattern of results seems most consistent with the idea that initial success improves access to deal flow. That preferential access raises the quality of subsequent investments, perpetuating performance differences in initial investments.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Ramana Nanda","Sampsa Samila","Olav Sorenson"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.01.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d8c6803a2c53ab80","title":"Regional inequalities and the West–East divide in Turkey since 1913","abstract":"This paper examines the evolution of regional disparities within the present‐day borders of Turkey since 1913. Based on our estimates for 58 provinces, we find β ‐convergence, an inverse U, and more recently, the beginnings of an N‐shaped pattern for value added per capita. We also find that regional disparities in Turkey exhibit a number of special features that do not easily fit the well‐studied pattern of the early industrializers. First, while per capita value added in other regions moved towards country averages, the differences between the East and the rest of the country persisted and even increased until recently. Second, spatial distribution of economic activity became more concentrated over time due to continued migration to the megacity of Istanbul. Third, we find that regional disparities in per capita value added in Turkey and other developing countries have been higher than those experienced by the early industrializers. These findings raise questions about the extent to which the regional disparities experiences of Turkey and other developing countries have been different than those of the early industrializers.","wordCount":175,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Güneş Aşık","Ulaş Karakoç","Şevket Pamuk"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13245","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d8d992532d45477d","title":"Housing price and fundamentals in a transition economy: The case of the beijing market","abstract":"This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.","wordCount":84,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Bing Han","Lu Han","Guozhong Zhu"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12316","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d8ebada84e1ec155","title":"Immigration and economic mobility","abstract":"We examine how immigration affects natives’ relative prime-age labor market outcomes by economic class background, with class background established on the basis of parents’ earnings rank. Exploiting alternative sources of variation in immigration patterns across time and space, we find that immigration from low-income countries reduces intergenerational mobility and thus steepens the social gradient in natives’ labor market outcomes, whereas immigration from high-income countries levels it. These findings are robust with respect to a wide range of identifying assumptions. The analysis is based on high-quality population-wide administrative data from Norway, which is one of the rich-world countries with the most rapid rise in the immigrant population share over the past two decades. Our findings suggest that immigration can explain a considerable part of the observed relative decline in economic performance among natives with a lower-class background.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Maria Forthun Hoen","Simen Markussen","Knut Røed"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00851-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d8f975c8454d45c0","title":"Back to Basics: Basic Research Spillovers, Innovation Policy, and Growth","abstract":"This article introduces a general equilibrium model of endogenous technical change through basic and applied research. Basic research differs from applied research in the nature and the magnitude of the generated spillovers. We propose a novel way of empirically identifying these spillovers and embed them in a framework with private firms and a public research sector. After characterizing the equilibrium, we estimate our model using micro-level data on research expenditures by French firms. Our key finding is that uniform research subsidies can accentuate the dynamic misallocation in the economy by oversubsidizing applied research. Policies geared towards public basic research and its interaction with the private sector are significantly welfare-improving.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Ufuk Akcigit","Douglas Hanley","Nicolas Serrano-Velarde"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa061","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d902aeeaafac72f6","title":"Investigating the complexity of naloxone distribution: Which policies matter for pharmacies and potential recipients","abstract":"Despite efforts to expand naloxone access, opioid-related overdoses remain a significant contributor to mortality. We study state efforts to expand naloxone distribution through pharmacies by reducing the non-monetary costs to prescribers, dispensers, and/or potential recipients of naloxone. We find that laws that only address liability costs have small and insignificant effects on the volume of naloxone dispensed through pharmacies. In contrast, we estimate large effects of laws removing the need for patients to obtain prescriptions from traditional prescribers (e.g., primary care physicians): laws authorizing non-patient-specific prescription distribution and laws granting pharmacists prescriptive authority. We test whether areas designated as primary care shortage areas-where it would be costlier to obtain a prescription-were disproportionately impacted. Shortage areas experienced sharper growth in pharmacy naloxone dispensing in states adopting prescriptive authority policies. These gains were primarily due to those facing low out-of-pocket costs, suggesting that price barriers also must be addressed to increase naloxone purchases.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Rosanna Smart","David Powell","Rosalie Liccardo Pacula","Evan D. Peet","Rahi Abouk","Corey S. Davis"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102917","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-d909aae34dc19cd6","title":"Labour Supply: The Roles of Human Capital and The Extensive Margin","abstract":"We specify and estimate a life-cycle labour supply model that expands on earlier work by simultaneously including human capital accumulation, saving and bequests, an active extensive margin, a realistic specification of the progressive tax structure and the Social Security system, and an accounting for private pensions and health expenditures. By incorporating all these features, we develop new insights into how taxes affect life-cycle labour supply. For instance, we find that labour supply elasticities vary in important ways with age, education and the tax structure itself. We also show how human capital affects elasticities differently on the intensive versus extensive margins.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Michael P. Keane","Nada Wasi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12362","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d912d5fb912a9f92","title":"Circular futures: What Will They Look Like?","abstract":"The circular economy is argued to hold great promise for achieving sustainability. Yet, there is a dearth of research about what a circular future may look like. To address this gap, this paper proposes different plausible scenarios for a circular future, using a 2 × 2 scenario matrix method developed through a thought experiment and a focus group. Key drivers of change in this matrix are the nature of technologies deployed – high-tech or low-tech innovations – and the configuration of the governance regime – centralized or decentralized. From this, our paper builds four scenario narratives for the future of a circular economy: “planned circularity”, “bottom-up sufficiency”, “circular modernism”, and “peer-to-peer circularity”. It delineates the core characteristics and the upsides and downsides of each scenario. It shows that a circular economy can be organized in very contrasting ways. By generating insights about alternative circular futures, these scenarios may provide a clearer directionality to policy-makers and businesses, helping them both anticipate and understand the consequences of a paradigm shift towards a circular economy and shape policies and strategies, especially in the context of so-called mission-oriented innovation policies. They may also provide a sound basis for quantitatively modelling the impacts of a circular economy.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Thomas Bauwens","Marko P. Hekkert","Julian Kirchherr"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106703","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d917d7dac7a4a6d4","title":"The impact of information-based interventions on conservation behavior: A meta-analysis","abstract":"Interest in using information-based interventions to induce energy and water conservation has increased in recent years but have shown mixed evidence of their effectiveness. This paper seeks to answer two main questions - whether these programs are broadly effective in inducing conservation, and what are the most effective versions of these programs. Using a meta-analysis of 116 studies, we examine the effects of information-based interventions on residential customers' consumption of electricity, gas, and water. We find evidence of publication bias in this literature. After correcting for publication bias, meta-analysis results indicate that information-based interventions reduce consumption by an average of 6.24%, 95% CI [-10.72, -1.76]. In addition, we find that studies employing RCTs find smaller conservation effects, (-5.2%, 95% CI [−9.53, −0.51]). Our results show that the effectiveness of information-based interventions at the household level are significantly larger than those at the aggregate level (such as dorms and buildings). Finally, interventions with a shorter duration or with more frequent reporting show larger estimated effect sizes.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Mehdi Nemati","Jerrod Penn"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2020.101201","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d9198435a9f14e2d","title":"“Big Data” in Economic History","abstract":"Big data is an exciting prospect for the field of economic history, which has long depended on the acquisition, keying, and cleaning of scarce numerical information about the past. This article examines two areas in which economic historians are already using big data - population and environment - discussing ways in which increased frequency of observation, denser samples, and smaller geographic units allow us to analyze the past with greater precision and often to track individuals, places, and phenomena across time. We also explore promising new sources of big data: organically created economic data, high resolution images, and textual corpora.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Myron P. Gutmann","Emily Klancher Merchant","Evan Roberts"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000177","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d91a593a0a7eed64","title":"The demand for residential domestic service in the London of 1901","abstract":"This article concerns the effect of income and other variables on the demand for residential domestic service in London in 1901 and presents the first estimated model of the demand for residential service known to the author. It uses previously unexploited data consisting of the incomes and household details of some 500 civil servants. An extension of Becker's model of household production is set out and an ordered probit statistical model of servant demand is estimated. The results confirm the importance of income but also show that the demographic composition of the household was of significance. These results are interpreted in terms of age‐ and gender‐related differences in the supply of labour and the demand for market goods. The results are consistent with the view that middle‐class Edwardian households should be understood as sites of production as well as consumption. A comparison of the statistical results with contemporary recommendations in manuals of household management suggests that those recommendations were typically over‐optimistic. The article presents a ‘ready reckoner’ whereby household income may be estimated from the number of resident servants, but caution in its use is urged.","wordCount":186,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Quentin Outram"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12384","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d92c5b66e9af5f16","title":"Have the effects of shocks to oil price expectations changed?","abstract":"Studies of the crude oil market based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models typically assume a time-invariant model and transmission of shocks and possibly allow for heteroskedasticity by using robust inference procedures. We assume a heteroskedastic reduced-form VAR model with time-invariant slope coefficients and explicitly consider the possibility of time-varying shock transmission due to heteroskedasticity. We study a model for the global crude oil market that includes key world and U.S. macroeconomic variables and find evidence for changes in the transmission of shocks to oil price expectations during the last decades which can be attributed to heteroskedasticity.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Martin Bruns","Helmut Lütkepohl"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111416","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d9330d206c0bab34","title":"Give and take frames in shared-resource negotiations","abstract":"Negotiations that involve contributions or distributions of shared resources are ubiquitous. However, the empirical literature has predominantly focused on how parties negotiate the exchange of exclusive resources in transaction negotiations (e.g., buyer–seller negotiations) and ignored shared-resource negotiations. We develop a novel negotiation task to investigate how parties resolve conflicts over the contribution versus distribution of resources via negotiations. We propose that when parties negotiate the allocations of shared resources, their exclusive ownership becomes the dominant reference point in the negotiation which induces reference-dependent frames throughout the negotiation process. Whereas negotiating contributions should induce give frames that highlight losses, negotiating distributions should induce take frames that highlight gains. These different allocation frames should, therefore, distinctly affect parties’ tradeoff aversion (i.e., willingness to trade off exclusive resources against shared resources), their allocation behaviors, and the quality of the final negotiation agreements. We further predict that these effects of give and take frames should be reversed when negotiating burdens. Across two preliminary and one preregistered, incentivized, and interactive negotiation experiments, we show that parties reach less integrative agreements when they have to contribute their own benefits to the shared ownership (i.e., inducing a give frame that highlights losses) than when they have to distribute benefits into their exclusive ownership (i.e., inducing a take frame that highlights gains). For negotiating the allocations of burdens, this finding reversed and parties reached less integrative agreements when they had to distribute burdens to the exclusive ownership (i.e., inducing a take frame that highlights losses) than when they had to contribute own burdens to shared ownership (i.e., inducing a give frame that highlights gains). Our findings suggest that parties’ aversion against tradeoffs prevents negotiators from reaching integrative agreements. The present studies are among the first to systematically elucidate negotiation processes over the contribution versus distribution of shared resources and point towards future research pathways to overcome reference-dependent biases.","wordCount":310,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Johann M. Majer","Kai Zhang","Hong Zhang","Benjamin Höhne","Roman Trötschel"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102492","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d93797d2d07e93ff","title":"Yellow Vests, Pessimistic Beliefs, and Carbon Tax Aversion","abstract":"Using a representative survey, we find that after the Yellow Vests movement, French people would largely reject a tax and dividend policy, i.e., a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to each adult. They overestimate their net monetary losses, wrongly think that the policy is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. We show that changing people’s beliefs can substantially increase support. Although significant, the effects of our informational treatments on beliefs are small. Indeed, the respondents that oppose the tax tend to discard positive information about it, which is consistent with distrust, uncertainty, or motivated reasoning.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Thomas Douenne","Adrien Fabre"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200092","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-d938541617ee13f5","title":"Learning to import from your peers","abstract":"We use firm-level data from Hungary to estimate knowledge spillovers in importing through fine spatial and managerial networks. By identifying from variation in peers' import experience across source countries, by comparing the spillover from neighboring buildings with a cross-street placebo, and by exploiting plausibly exogenous firm moves, we obtain credible estimates and establish three results. (1) There are significant knowledge spillovers in both spatial and managerial networks. Having a peer which has imported from a particular country more than doubles the probability of starting to import from that country, but the effect quickly decays with distance. (2) Spillovers are heterogeneous: they are stronger when firms or peers are larger or more productive, and exhibit complementarities in firm and peer productivity. (3) The model-implied social multiplier is highly skewed, implying that targeting an import-encouragement policy to firms with many and productive neighbors can make it 26% more effective. These results highlight the benefit of firm clusters in facilitating the diffusion of business practices.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Márta Bisztray","Miklós Koren","Ádám Szeidl"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.09.010","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d961085f6fb08005","title":"Perceived returns to job search","abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on workers’ perceptions of the returns to job search effort using hypothetical vignettes. This allows us to overcome limitations with survey data on realized behavior in which search effort and reservation wages may be endogenous to perceived job finding rates. The perceived job finding probability is nearly linear in hours searched and only slightly concave for most respondents. While workers are over-optimistic about the probability of receiving a job offer conditional on any search, they perceive the marginal return to additional search hours as positive but comparably low. Job seekers receiving an offer, update their perceived returns upwards, while the beliefs of unsuccessful searchers regress towards the direction of the mean. We find little evidence that novel aspects of the pandemic recession have fundamentally changed workers’ motivations for job search: that an existing job is expected to end or has unsatisfactory pay are the primary motives for on-the-job search. On the contrary, workers’ ability to do their tasks from home is not a strong predictor of job search nor a significant motive for switching occupations.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Abi Adams‐Prassl","Teodora Boneva","Marta Golin","Christopher Rauh"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102307","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d96f39a7f5c5554b","title":"Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence","abstract":"In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the time-varying interdependence among the economic cycles of the major world economies during the post-Great Moderation period. We document a significant increase in the global business cycle interdependence occurred in the early 2000s. Such increase is mainly attributed to the emerging market economies, since their business cycles became more synchronized with the rest of the world around that time. Moreover, we find that the increase in global interdependence is highly related to decreasing differences in sectoral composition among countries.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Lorenzo Ductor","Danilo Leiva‐León"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.07.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d97b142eed2d1b0d","title":"The structure and growth of ethnic neighborhoods","abstract":"We introduce a new statistical definition of an immigrant ethnic neighborhood based on a choice model and using the location distribution of natives as a benchmark. We then examine the characteristics of ethnic neighborhoods in the United States using decadal census tract data from 1970 to 2010. We estimate that 43% of the foreign-born population lived in ethnic neighborhoods in 1970, increasing to 67% by 2010. Ethnic neighborhoods have lower average incomes and housing values, and a higher percentage of residents living in rental housing and commuting without a car, than other locations in the city where the same group lives. Neighborhoods vary greatly in size and the population distribution across neighborhoods within a group follows a power law. Most neighborhoods disappear within one or two decades but larger neighborhoods persist longer. Large neighborhoods have a well-defined spatial structure with negative population gradients from the center of the neighborhood and grow primarily through spatial expansion into adjacent locations.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Tianran Dai","Nathan Schiff"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103570","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d9823436815b6b1a","title":"Market failures and willingness to accept smart meters: Experimental evidence from the UK","abstract":"To facilitate the sustainable energy transition, governments and innovators are encouraging households to adopt smart technologies that allow for increased flexibility in energy grids. At the time of undertaking this research in 2020, the UK’s ambitious smart metering policy had indisputably failed to achieve its objective of equipping all dwellings with smart meters. This research uses a novel experiment to elicit the willingness to accept of 2,430 nationally representative UK households for smart meter installation. Randomized information treatments allow for assessment of the impact on adoption and willingness to accept of oft-cited market failures, namely imperfect information and diffusion externalities. We explore treatment effects and identify non-additional policy expenditures for a range of potential subsidy programs.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Greer Gosnell","Daire McCoy"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102756","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d98c228a74d0a888","title":"Prosociality predicts health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"Socially responsible behavior is crucial for slowing the spread of infectious diseases. However, economic and epidemiological models of disease transmission abstract from prosocial motivations as a driver of behaviors that impact the health of others. In an incentivized study, we show that a large majority of people are very reluctant to put others at risk for their personal benefit. Moreover, this experimental measure of prosociality predicts health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic, measured in a separate and ostensibly unrelated study with the same people. Prosocial individuals are more likely to follow physical distancing guidelines, stay home when sick, and buy face masks. We also find that prosociality measured two years before the pandemic predicts health behaviors during the pandemic. Our findings indicate that prosociality is a stable, long-term predictor of policy-relevant behaviors, suggesting that the impact of policies on a population may depend on the degree of prosociality.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Pol Campos‐Mercade","Armando N. Meier","Florian Schneider","Erik Wengström"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104367","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d99259e47fa3f38f","title":"Effects of the Minimum Wage on Infant Health","abstract":"The minimum wage has increased in multiple states over the past three decades and it continues to be a controversial policy. Most prior research has examined the effect of the minimum wage on employment and wages. In this study, we examine the impact of the state minimum wage on infant health. Using data on the universe of births in the U.S. over 24 years, we find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with a small, but statistically significant increase in birthweight driven primarily by increased fetal growth rate. Effects are largest for young, married mothers. In terms of mechanisms, we find no evidence that prenatal care use and smoking during pregnancy are channels through which minimum wage improves infant health.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["George L. Wehby","Dhaval Dave","Robert Kaestner"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22174","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d993c81e5522f193","title":"Ordered Consumer Search","abstract":"The paper discusses situations in which consumers search through their options in a deliberate order. Topics include: the existence of ordered search equilibria with symmetric sellers (all consumers first inspect the seller they anticipate will set the lowest price, and a seller that is inspected first by consumers will set the lowest price); the use of price and non-price advertising to direct search; how purchase history can guide future search; and the incentive a seller can have to raise its own search cost. I also show how ordered search can be reformulated as a simpler discrete choice problem without search frictions.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Mark Armstrong"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx017","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d99bdb9dbb0bc1ac","title":"South–South Cooperation, Agribusiness, and African Agricultural Development: Brazil and China in Ghana and Mozambique","abstract":"The rise of new powers in development has generated much debate on the extent to which South–South Cooperation (SSC) constitutes a new paradigm of development more relevant to African needs or a disguise for a new form of imperialism. This paper critically examines the rise of Chinese and Brazilian technical and economic cooperation in African agriculture with two cases drawn from Ghana and Mozambique. Using a historical framework, policy documents, case studies, and an analysis of the political economy of agrarian development, we trace the role of agricultural development in the relations of China and Brazil in Africa, and the extents to which recent developments in agribusiness and structural neoliberal reforms of African economies have influenced Brazilian and Chinese contemporary engagements with African agriculture. We examine the extent to which the different policy frameworks, political interests in agriculture, and institutional frameworks influence and impede the outcomes of Chinese and Brazilian development intents. We find that China and Brazil have different histories of experience within African agriculture, which influences the nature of their technical and development cooperation. Although they have distinct agrarian structures, the development of agribusiness and commercial seed, input and machinery sectors in China and Brazil influence engagements within Africa. These are often variants of the same interests that underlie the programs of northern donors, and frequently the two rising powers engage in trilateral arrangements with other donors and international agencies, particularly in the case of Brazil.","wordCount":238,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Kojo Amanor","Sérgio Chichava"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.021","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d9a009506c74c2b2","title":"Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies","abstract":"Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Up to now, nations have adopted minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to develop new projections of trends and impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results with those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if major climate-change policies are not taken. It suggests that it is unlikely that nations can achieve the 2°C target of international agreements, even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.","wordCount":150,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["William D. Nordhaus"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170046","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d9c46d58206810dd","title":"Trade Openness and Antitrust Law","abstract":"Openness to international trade and adoption of antitrust laws can both curb anticompetitive behavior. But scholars have long debated the relationship between the two. Some argue that greater openness to trade makes antitrust laws unnecessary, while others contend that antitrust laws are still needed to realize the benefits of trade liberalization. Limitations of data have made this debate largely theoretical to date. We study the relationship between trade and antitrust regimes empirically using new data on antitrust laws and enforcement activities. We find that openness to trade and stringency of antitrust laws are positively correlated from 1950 to 2010 overall, but the positive correlation disappears in the early 1990s as a large number of countries adopt antitrust laws. However, we find a positive correlation between openness to trade and resources and activities for antitrust enforcement for both early and late adopters of antitrust regimes during this period.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Anu Bradford","Adam Chilton"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701438","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-d9d17b24a80429fb","title":"Endogenous ambiguity and rational miscommunication","abstract":"This paper studies a sender-receiver game in which both players want the receiver to choose the state-optimal action. Before observing the state, the sender observes a “contextual signal,” a payoff-irrelevant signal that correlates with states and is imperfectly shared with the receiver. Once the sender observes the state, the sender sends a message to the receiver, incurring a small messaging cost. It is shown that there is no miscommunication in any efficient equilibrium if the messaging cost is uniform or contextual information is poorly shared between players. However, if the messaging costs are different between some messages, and contextual information can affect the probability ranking of states and is shared reasonably well, any efficient equilibrium that favors the sender exhibits miscommunication. Furthermore, the messages that cause miscommunication can be coarse or ambiguous, depending on how well players share contextual information.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Toru Suzuki"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105686","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-d9d88f2ccf3213a4","title":"How do you defend a network?","abstract":"Modern economies rely heavily on their infrastructure networks. These networks face threats ranging from natural disasters to human attacks. As networks are pervasive, the investments needed to protect them are very large; this motivates the study of targeted defense. What are the “key” nodes to defend to maximize functionality of the network? What are the incentives of individual nodes to protect themselves in a networked environment and how do these incentives correspond to collective welfare? We first provide a characterization of optimal attack and defense in terms of two classical concepts in graph theory: separators and transversals. This characterization permits a systematic study of the intensity of conflict (the resources spent on attack and defense) and helps us identify a new class of networks—windmill graphs—that minimize conflict. We then study security choices by individual nodes. Our analysis identifies the externalities and shows that the welfare costs of decentralized defense in networks can be very large.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Marcin Dziubiński","Sanjeev Goyal"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2088","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-d9dc0b763eb1b615","title":"Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.","abstract":"We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated with central bank information conveyed with the announcement. To disentangle these two types of shocks, we impose sign restrictions on high frequency changes in interest rates and stock prices around announcements. We find that information shocks lead to persistent declines in the 10-year government bond yield, whereas the actual unconventional policy shock induces only small interest rate responses. We also find that expansionary output effects of unconventional monetary policy are to some extent counteracted by the information shock.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Max Breitenlechner","Daniel Gründler","Johann Scharler"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103283","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-d9dcbf46fda02766","title":"The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence","abstract":"We build a model of the U.S. economy with multiple aggregate shocks (income, housing finance conditions, and beliefs about future housing demand) that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through a series of counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession and obtain three main results. First, we find that the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs. Shifts in credit conditions do not move house prices but are important for the dynamics of home ownership, leverage, and foreclosures. The role of housing rental markets and long-term mortgages in alleviating credit constraints is central to these findings. Second, our model suggests that the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in non-durable expenditures and that the transmission mechanism is a wealth effect through household balance sheets. Third, we find that a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures, but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Greg Kaplan","Kurt Mitman","Giovanni L. Violante"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/708816","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d9e173cfb9c86016","title":"How important are terms‐of‐trade shocks?","abstract":"According to conventional wisdom, terms‐of‐trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business‐cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models is strikingly different. We estimate country‐specific SVARs using data from 38 countries and find that terms‐of‐trade shocks explain less than 10% of movements in aggregate activity. We then estimate key structural parameters of a three‐sector business‐cycle model country by country and find a disconnect between the importance assigned to terms‐of‐trade shocks by theoretical and SVAR models.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé","Martı́n Uribe"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12263","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-d9e3aa1908309c5f","title":"Health Services as Credence Goods: a Field Experiment","abstract":"Agency problems are a defining characteristic of healthcare markets. We present the results from a field experiment in the market for dental care: a test patient who does not need treatment is sent to 180 dentists to receive treatment recommendations. In the experiment, we vary the socio-economic status of the patient and whether a second opinion signal is sent. Furthermore, measures of market, practice and dentist characteristics are collected. We observe an overtreatment recommendation rate of 28% and a striking heterogeneity in treatment recommendations. Furthermore, we find significantly fewer overtreatment recommendations for patients with higher socio-economic status compared with lower socio-economic status for standard visits, suggesting a complex role for patients’ socio-economic status. Competition intensity, measured by dentist density, does not have a significant influence on overtreatment. Dentists with shorter waiting times are more likely to propose unnecessary treatment.","wordCount":139,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Felix C.H. Gottschalk","Wanda Mimra","Christian Waibel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa024","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-da02ffe54b212ad0","title":"Trends in national biodiversity footprints of land use","abstract":"Rising incomes (and associated expenditures) have been shown to be a major driver of environmental problems. Lately, several studies have pointed to a break between the income driver and biodiversity loss on a per-capita level. The increase in land-use efficiency is pointed to as a key factor in this decoupling. However, a lot of the previous work on biodiversity footprints has been cross-sectional and there is limited analysis with a temporal perspective. In this work, we couple a database that links land use to potential biodiversity impacts for ecoregions, with a multiregional environmentally-extended input-output database available in a time series, with high regional detail. We perform a panel regression analysis for three regional quantile groups and six consumption categories that links trends in affluence to trends in biodiversity loss. The findings suggest that high-income regions from 2005 to 2015 have an income elasticity of biodiversity footprint higher than one, while the production-based accounts show that high-income countries have a declining impact on biodiversity in the time period, suggesting a strong outsourcing of biodiversity loss to low-income countries. In the early 2000s a peak in biodiversity footprint for the high-income region is not explained by increasing income, but rather consumption of traded goods associated with land use in countries in South East Asia prone to biodiversity loss. On a product level we find that although food consumption is causing the largest share of biodiversity footprints in all regional groups, manufacturing products, shelter, and clothing and footwear have the strongest income elasticity of footprint in high-income countries, suggesting that these are consumption areas to focus on as affluence grows, particularly in developing regions.","wordCount":271,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Eivind Lekve Bjelle","Koen Kuipers","Francesca Verones","Richard Wood"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107059","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-da22607f533aef62","title":"Subsidies and the African Green Revolution: Direct Effects and Social Network Spillovers of Randomized Input Subsidies in Mozambique","abstract":"The Green Revolution, which bolstered agricultural yields and economic well-being in Asia and Latin America beginning in the 1960s, largely bypassed sub-Saharan Africa. We study the first randomized controlled trial of a government-implemented input subsidy program (ISP) in Africa intended to foment a Green Revolution. We find that this temporary subsidy for Mozambican maize farmers stimulates Green Revolution technology adoption and leads to increased maize yields. Effects of the subsidy persist in later unsubsidized years. In addition, social networks of subsidized farmers benefit from spillovers, experiencing increases in technology adoption, yields, and beliefs about the returns to the technologies. Spillovers account for the vast majority of subsidy-induced gains. ISPs alleviate informational market failures, stimulating learning about new technologies by subsidy recipients and their social networks.","wordCount":125,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Michael Carter","Rachid Laajaj","Dean Yang"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20190396","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-da34e4052b867cf8","title":"Estimating the prevalence of child labour in the cocoa industry via indirect elicitation methods: a mixed-methods study","abstract":"Data from children suggest that the prevalence of child labour in the cocoa industry in Côte d’Ivoire is a worrying 38%. However, while surveying children has the potential to reduce sensitivity biases such as social desirability bias, it presents significant ethical dilemmas and may also be associated with other reporting biases, making accurate estimates of child labour difficult. To address this, we collected data from 1741 cocoa producers to assess whether parents could provide more accurate estimates using indirect survey methods. We compared direct questioning with a list experiment and a novel non-verbal method (‘colorbox’). We found higher prevalence rates of child labour using indirect elicitation methods, but lower than those obtained from children’s surveys. Qualitative in-depth interviews revealed motivations for underreporting, including fear of legal consequences and mistrust of stakeholders. Indirect methods alone are not sufficient to correct for underreporting when child labour is collected from parents. Future research should prioritise direct data collection from children and address ethical concerns to obtain more accurate estimates of child labour.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Aurélia Lépine","Yah Ariane Bernadette N’Djore","Carole Treibich","Henry Cust","Laurent Foubert","Megan Passey","Selina Binder"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01054-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-da5613955980760f","title":"Determinants of the bid-to-cover ratio in Eurozone sovereign debt auctions","abstract":"Building on a unique dataset of Eurozone sovereign debt auctions, this paper analyzes the determinants of their bid-to-cover ratios, which is the most common measure of the outcome of an auction. We find that the secondary market yield on the same maturity instrument, past domestic and foreign bid-to-cover ratios and occasionally the number of primary dealers tend to exert a positive effect on the current bid-to-cover ratio, while the opposite is the case for the supply and the volatility of the yield. The results thus suggest that past information helps to predict the demand in auctions.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Roel Beetsma","Massimo Giuliodori","Jesper Hanson","Frank de Jong"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2020.05.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-da707c79a3c34b98","title":"Optimal contest design: Tuning the heat","abstract":"We consider the design of contests when the principal can choose both the prize profile and how the prizes are allocated as a function of a possibly noisy signal about the agents' efforts. We provide sufficient conditions that guarantee optimality of a contest. Optimal contests have a minimally competitive prize profile and an intermediate degree of competitiveness in the contest success function. Whenever observation is not too noisy, the optimum can be achieved by an all-pay contest with a cap. When observation is perfect, the optimum can also be achieved by a nested Tullock contest. We relate our results to a recent literature which has asked similar questions but has typically focused on the design of either the prize profile or the contest success function.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Igor Letina","Shuo Liu","Nick Netzer"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105616","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-da750f0e76041a01","title":"Trust as an entry barrier: Evidence from FinTech adoption","abstract":"This paper studies the role of trust in incumbent lenders (banks) as an entry barrier to emerging FinTech lenders in credit markets. The empirical setting exploits the outbreak of the Wells Fargo scandal as a negative shock to borrowers’ trust in banks. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that increased exposure to the Wells Fargo scandal leads to an increase in the probability of borrowers using FinTech as mortgage originators. Utilizing political affiliation to proxy for the magnitude of trust erosion in banks in a triple-differences specification, I find that, conditional on the same exposure to the scandal, a county experiencing a greater erosion of trust has a larger increase in FinTech share relative to a county experiencing less of an erosion of trust. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity using generic machine learning inference suggests that borrowers with the greatest decrease in trust in banks and the greatest increase in FinTech adoption have similar characteristics.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Keer Yang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104062","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-da7687667f31b4d4","title":"A Model of Relative Thinking","abstract":"Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings, the model predicts context effects such as the attraction effect but predicts meaningful bounds on such effects driven by the intrinsic utility for the choices. In risky environments, a person is less likely to sacrifice utility on one dimension to gain utility on another that is made riskier. For example, a person is less likely to exert effort for a fixed monetary return if there is greater overall income uncertainty. We design and run experiments to test basic model predictions and find support for these predictions.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Benjamin Bushong","Matthew Rabin","Joshua Schwartzstein"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa055","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-da8476653d2719af","title":"Economic History and Contemporary Challenges to Globalization","abstract":"The article surveys three economic history literatures that can speak to contemporary challenges to globalization: the literature on the anti-globalization backlash of the nineteenth century, focused largely on trade and migration; the literature on the Great Depression, focused largely on capital flows, the gold standard, and protectionism; and the literature on trade and warfare.","wordCount":54,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Kevin O’Rourke"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000044","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-da9a547b980df431","title":"Beyond LATE with a Discrete Instrument","abstract":"We show how a discrete instrument can be used to identify the marginal treatment effects under a functional structure that allows for treatment heterogeneity among individuals with the same observed characteristics and self-selection based on the unobserved gain from treatment. Guided by this identification result, we perform a marginal treatment effect analysis of the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Our estimates reveal that the family size effects vary in magnitude and even sign and that families act as if they possess some knowledge of the idiosyncratic effects in the fertility decision.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Christian Brinch","Magne Mogstad","Matthew Wiswall"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/692712","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-daa1f274ef553a21","title":"Reversing the gender gap in happiness","abstract":"Life satisfaction surveys are increasingly being used as a measure of welfare (Stiglitz et al., 2009), and even proposed as a primary measure (Layard, 2005). On average worldwide, surveys consistently find that women report higher life satisfaction than men. Yet, women are worse off in many ways: less education, lower incomes, worse self-reported health, and fewer opportunities. Why do they report higher life satisfaction? Using Gallup World Poll survey data from 102 countries including anchoring vignettes, I show that the gap is consistent with women and men systematically using different response scales, and that once these scales have been normalized, women appear less happy than men on average. I find that the effects of other characteristics commonly studied (income, education, marital status, etc.) are at least directionally the same after vignette adjustment, reinforcing previous findings.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Mallory Montgomery"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-daa3e740d9e2e504","title":"Business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence for scale-dependent risks","abstract":"A single factor that captures assets’ exposure to business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty can explain the level and cross-sectional differences of asset returns. Specifically, based on portfolio-level tests I demonstrate that fluctuations in uncertainty with persistence ranging from 32 to 128 months carry a negative price of risk of about −2% annually. The price of risk for fluctuations with persistence outside of this range and for the raw series of aggregate uncertainty is insignificant. Also, equity exposures are negative and hence the corresponding risk premia are positive. I quantify macroeconomic uncertainty using the model-free index of Jurado et al. (2015) derived from monthly, quarterly and annual forecasts.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Georgios Xyngis"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.06.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-daaae3076fd3fea4","title":"Two Decades of Income Inequality in Britain: The Role of Wages, Household Earnings and Redistribution","abstract":"We study earnings and income inequality in Britain over the past two decades, including the period of relatively ‘inclusive’ growth from 1997 to 2004, and the Great Recession. We focus on the middle 90%, where trends have contrasted strongly with the ‘new inequality’ at the very top. Household earnings inequality has risen, driven by male earnings—although a ‘catch‐up’ of female earnings did hold down individual earnings inequality and reduce within‐household inequality. Nevertheless, net household income inequality fell due to deliberate increases in redistribution, the tax and transfer system's insurance role during the Great Recession, falling household worklessness, and rising pensioner incomes.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Chris Belfield","Richard Blundell","Jonathan Cribb","Andrew Hood","Robert Joyce"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12220","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-daca917a43eec76c","title":"Optimal Product Placement","abstract":"We model a market, such as an online software market, in which an intermediary connects sellers and buyers by displaying sellers' products. With two vertically-differentiated products, an intermediary can place either: (1) one product, not necessarily the better one, on the first page, and the other hidden on the second page; or (2) both products on the first page. We show that it can be optimal for the intermediary to obfuscate a product-possibly the better one-since this weakens price competition and allows the sellers to extract a greater surplus from buyers; however, it is not socially optimal. The choice of which one to obfuscate depends on the distribution of search costs.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Chia‐Ling Hsu","Rafael Matta","Sergey V. Popov","Takeharu Sogo"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-017-9575-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dace8ff72e1fb07a","title":"City characteristics, land prices and volatility","abstract":"We develop a model that describes how city characteristics affect the volatility of real estate rents and values. The model includes agglomeration externalities, which amplify the effect of productivity shocks on population growth and rents, as well as city characteristics that constrain population growth. While growth constraints make rents more subject to productivity shocks because of the inelastic supply, they can also suppress the benefits of agglomeration, which has the effect of decreasing the sensitivity of rents to productivity shocks. Our dynamic model exhibits persistent rent growth and rent-to-value ratios that vary across cities and over time. In particular, we show that productivity shocks have a larger initial effect on rents in more constrained cities, but a greater long-term effect in less constrained cities.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Sheridan Titman","Guozhong Zhu"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103645","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dadd0474092d0dba","title":"Income inequality and the labour market in Britain and the US","abstract":"We study household income inequality in both Great Britain and the United States and the interplay between labour market earnings and the tax system. While both Britain and the US have witnessed secular increases in 90/10 male earnings inequality over the last three decades, this measure of inequality in net family income has declined in Britain while it has risen in the US. To better understand these comparisons, we examine the interaction between labour market earnings in the family, assortative mating, the tax and welfare-benefit system and household income inequality. We find that both countries have witnessed sizeable changes in employment which have primarily occurred on the extensive margin in the US and on the intensive margin in Britain. Increases in the generosity of the welfare system in Britain played a key role in equalizing net income growth across the wage distribution, whereas the relatively weak safety net available to non-workers in the US mean this growing group has seen particularly adverse developments in their net incomes.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Richard Blundell","Robert Joyce","Agnes Norris Keiller","James P. Ziliak"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.04.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dae030b7a9f9e501","title":"The Rapid Adoption of Data-Driven Decision-Making","abstract":"We provide a systematic empirical study of the diffusion and adoption patterns of data-driven decision making (DDD) in the U.S. Using data collected by the Census Bureau for a large representative sample of manufacturing plants, we find that DDD rates nearly tripled (11%-30%) between 2005 and 2010. This rapid diffusion, along with results from a companion paper, are consistent with case-based evidence that DDD tends to be productivity-enhancing. Yet certain plants are significantly more likely to adopt than others. Key correlates of adoption are size, presence of potential complements such as information technology and educated workers, and firm learning.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Erik Brynjolfsson","Kristina McElheran"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20161016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-daed9bd5049a55ee","title":"Up in Smoke: The Influence of Household Behavior on the Long-Run Impact of Improved Cooking Stoves","abstract":"Laboratory studies suggest that improved cooking stoves can reduce indoor air pollution, improve health, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. We provide evidence, from a large-scale randomized trial in India, on the benefits of a common, laboratory-validated stove with a four-year follow-up. While smoke inhalation initially falls, this effect disappears by year two. We find no changes across health outcomes or greenhouse gas emissions. Households used the stoves irregularly and inappropriately, failed to maintain them, and usage declined over time. This study underscores the need to test environmental technologies in real-world settings where behavior may undermine potential impacts.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Rema Hanna","Esther Duflo","Michael Greenstone"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140008","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-daf44707bf923a3d","title":"Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered","abstract":"In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the conclusions drawn from earlier models of learning by doing (LBD) and the Dutch disease. In particular, the resource movement effect suggests that the growth effects of natural resources are likely to be positive, turning previous growth results in the literature relying on the spending effect on their head. We motivate the relevance of our approach by the example of a major oil producer, Norway. Empirically we find that the effects of an increase in the price of oil may resemble results found in the earlier Dutch disease literature, while the effects of increased oil activity increases productivity in most industries. Therefore, models that only focus on windfall gains due to increased spending potential from higher oil prices, would conclude – incorrectly based on our analysis – that the resource sector cannot be an engine of growth.","wordCount":171,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Hilde C. Bjørnland","Leif Anders Thorsrud","Ragnar Torvik"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.07.016","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-db0b6bfaf53bcd2e","title":"Ideological Bias and Trust in Information Sources","abstract":"We study the role of endogenous trust in amplifying ideological bias. Agents in our model learn a sequence of states from sources whose accuracy is ex ante uncertain. Agents learn these accuracies by comparing their own reasoning about the states based on introspection or direct experience to the sources’ reports. Small biases in this reasoning can cause large ideological differences in the agents’ trust in information sources and their beliefs about the states, and may lead agents to become overconfident in their own reasoning. Disagreements can be similar in magnitude whether agents see only ideologically aligned sources or diverse sources.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Matthew Gentzkow","Michael B. Wong","Allen T. Zhang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20210406","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db15980bc81ea5e5","title":"Contact versus Exposure: Refugee Presence and Voting for the Far Right","abstract":"This paper investigates how different forms of exposure to refugees affect voting for Far Right parties. I study the state of Upper Austria where many municipalities hosted asylum seekers and also experienced a massive flow of refugees crossing into Germany in 2015. Exposure to refugees passing through border municipalities increased Far Right votes by about 1.5 percentage points, which suggests that mere exposure can increase Far Right support. Conversely, contact and sustained interactions between natives and asylum seekers in hosting municipalities decreased Far Right votes by about 4 percentage points, which is in line with the intergroup contact theory.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Andreas Steinmayr"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00922","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db16f9b684ccdb8e","title":"Topography, borders, and trade across Europe","abstract":"We create a novel data set on the European river network and for the ruggedness of trade routes between European countries and integrate these new indicators into recently developed structural gravity models. Moreover, we propose a new approach how to differentiate between contemporaneous and historical trade costs. Applying two-stage structural gravity estimations, we assess the impact of topography on trade by combining worldwide, European, and domestic trade data. While border effect estimates remain largely robust, a main part of the historical and contemporaneous trade costs usually attributed to non-contiguity can be accounted for by topography. Finally, counterfactual simulations suggest that positive effects of rivers on trade are less important than negative effects of mountains.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Richard Frensch","Jarko Fidrmuc","Michael Rindler"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.02.002","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db21fd5c10934dcf","title":"Trade openness and income inequality: New empirical evidence","abstract":"We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970–2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Florian Dorn","Clemens Fuest","Niklas Potrafke"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13018","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-db385605ee6e4dc2","title":"How Does Legal Enforceability Affect Consumer Lending? Evidence from a Natural Experiment","abstract":"We use a natural experiment—an unexpected judicial decision—to study how the enforceability of debt contracts affects consumer lending. In May 2015, a federal court unexpectedly held that the usury statutes of three states—Connecticut, New York, and Vermont—applied to certain loans that market participants had assumed were exempt from those statutes. The case introduced substantial uncertainty about whether borrowers affected by the decision were under any legal obligation to repay principal or interest on their loans. Using proprietary data from three marketplace-lending platforms, we use a difference-in-differences design to study the decision’s effects. We find no evidence that borrowers defaulted strategically as a result of the decision. However, the decision reduced credit availability for higher-risk borrowers in affected states. Secondary-market data indicate that the price of notes backed by above-usury loans issued to borrowers in affected states declined, particularly when those borrowers were late on their payments.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Colleen Honigsberg","Robert J. Jackson","Richard Squire"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/695808","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db3be3e63cecc9e7","title":"Predicting retirement savings using survey measures of exponential‐growth bias and present bias","abstract":"In a nationally representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey‐based elicitations of exponential‐growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These relationships hold controlling for cognitive ability, financial literacy, and a rich set of demographic controls. We address measurement error as a potential confound and explore mechanisms through which these biases may operate. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12%.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Gopi Shah Goda","Matthew Levy","Colleen Flaherty Manchester","Aaron Sojourner","Joshua Tasoff"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12792","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db5e2e85df13e89a","title":"Bidding in multi-unit auctions under limited information","abstract":"Multi-unit auctions frequently take place in environments with limited information, such as in new markets and under volatile macroeconomic conditions. We characterize optimal prior-free bids in such auctions; these bids minimize the maximal loss in expected utility resulting from uncertainty surrounding opponent behavior. We show that optimal bids are readily computable in this environment despite bidders having multi-dimensional private information. In the pay-as-bid auction the prior-free bid is unique; in the uniform-price auction the prior-free bid is unique if the bidder is allowed to determine the quantities for which they bid, as in many practical applications. We compare prior-free bids and auction outcomes across auction formats; while outcome comparisons are ambiguous, pay-as-bid auctions tend to generate greater revenue and welfare than uniform-price auctions when bidders' values are dispersed. We also compare outcomes in limited-information environments to outcomes in high-information environments, modeled as bidders playing Bayes-Nash equilibrium, and show that Bayes-Nash outcomes dominate prior-free outcomes when the auction is competitive.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Bernhard Kasberger","Kyle Woodward"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.106008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-db640615df215f6d","title":"The effect of education on spousal education: A genetic approach","abstract":"We investigate the causal effect of education on spousal education using a sample of couples from the Health and Retirement Study. We estimate reduced-form linear matching functions derived from a parsimonious matching model which links spouses’ education. Using OLS we find that an additional year in husband’s (resp. wife’s) education is associated with an average increase in wife’s (resp. husband’s) education of 0.41 years —95% CI: 0.37, 0.45 (resp. 0.63 years —95% CI: 0.57, 0.68). To deal with endogeneity issues due to measurement error and omitted variables, we use a measure of genetic propensity (polygenic score) for educational attainment as an instrumental variable. Assuming that our instrument is valid, our 2SLS estimate suggests that an additional year in husband’s (resp. wife’s) education increases wife’s (resp. husband’s) education by about 0.49 years —95% CI: 0.35, 0.62 (resp. 0.76 —95% CI: 0.56, 0.96). Since greater genetic propensity for educational attainment has been linked to a range of personality and cognitive skills, we allow for the possibility that the exclusion restriction is violated using the plausible exogenous approach by Conley et al. (2012). A positive causal effect of education on spousal education cannot be ruled out, as long as one standard deviation increase in husband’s (wife’s) genetic propensity for education directly increases wife’s (husband’s) education by less than 0.2 (0.3) years.","wordCount":218,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Nicola Barban","Elisabetta De Cao","Sonia Oreffice","Climent Quintana‐Domeque"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102023","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-db64f173bf080527","title":"Information disclosure in mitigating moral hazard: An experimental investigation","abstract":"In a moral hazard framework, an agent considers undertaking a task of uncertain difficulty. An immediate disclosure of the task's difficulty by the principal convinces the agent to perform only easy tasks. By contrast, information design theory predicts that delayed disclosure can induce the agent to continue working even when the work turns out to be challenging. Our experimental evidence confirms that delayed disclosure outperforms immediate disclosure and no disclosure, as theory predicts, but only if immediate disclosure is not available. However, when the principal is faced with the choice between the two policies and chooses delayed disclosure over immediate disclosure, the superiority of delayed disclosure disappears due to the agent's intention-based reciprocity towards the principal.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ninghua Du","Quazi Shahriar"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.02.001","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-db691b456c22ae2b","title":"Sale of Visas: a Smuggler's Final Song?","abstract":"Is there a way of eliminating human smuggling? We set up a model to simultaneously determine the provision of human smuggling services and the demand from would‐be migrants. A visa‐selling policy may be successful in eliminating smugglers by eroding their profits, but it also increases immigration. In contrast, repression decreases migration but fuels cartelized smugglers. To overcome this trade‐off we show that legalization through selling visas in combination with repression can be used to weaken human smuggling while controlling migration flows. Our results highlight the complementarities between repression and selling visas, and call into question current policies.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Emmanuelle Auriol","Alice Mesnard"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12204","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db744d8a199d93d4","title":"Child-Access-Prevention Laws, Youths’ Gun Carrying, and School Shootings","abstract":"Despite public interest in keeping guns out of schools, little is known about the effects of gun control on youths’ gun carrying or school violence. Using data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) for 1993–2013, we examine the relationship between child-access-prevention (CAP) laws and gun carrying among high-school students. Our results suggest that CAP laws lead to an 18.5 percent decrease in the rate of gun carrying and a 19 percent decrease in the rate at which students report being threatened or injured with a weapon on school property. These results are concentrated among minors, for whom CAP laws are most likely to bind. To supplement our YRBS analysis, we assemble a data set on school-shooting deaths for 1991–2013. We find little evidence that CAP laws deter school-associated shooting deaths, but these estimates are insufficiently precise to reach a policy conclusion.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["D. Mark Anderson","Joseph J. Sabia"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/699657","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db89df0b831472af","title":"Household consumption patterns and the consumer price index, England, 1260–1869","abstract":"Existing long‐run consumer price indices for England rely on a fixed consumption basket. Here we construct a methodologically improved, chained‐Laspeyres price index for ordinary households based on their changing expenditure patterns between 1260 and 1869. Rather than offering a revisionist perspective on long‐run costs, it confirms the broad accuracy of existing indices for the pre‐industrial period. The dominant dependence of the key items of expenditure on agricultural, particularly arable, prices explains this finding. The industrial period introduced a new dynamic. The shift in household expenditure towards imported groceries and manufactured goods allowed for more substitution in response to relative price and income changes. Adding the current series to those chained‐Laspeyres indices available for later periods provides a CPI for ordinary households in England over nearly eight centuries; from 1260 to the present day.","wordCount":133,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Sara Horrell"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13236","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-db9f63a2949259bd","title":"Ties That Bind: How Business Connections Affect Mutual Fund Activism","abstract":"We investigate whether business ties with portfolio firms influence mutual funds' proxy voting using a comprehensive data set spanning 2003 to 2011. In contrast to prior literature, we find that business ties significantly influence promanagement voting at the level of individual pairs of fund families and firms after controlling for Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommendations and holdings. The association is significant only for shareholder‐sponsored proposals and stronger for those that pass or fail by relatively narrow margins. Our findings are consistent with a demand‐driven model of biased voting in which company managers use existing business ties with funds to influence how they vote.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Dragana Cvijanović","Amil Dasgupta","Konstantinos E. Zachariadis"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12425","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dba2addb119008e2","title":"Optimal fiscal and monetary policy, debt crisis, and management","abstract":"The initial government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GDP ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary–fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks,” perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds—under commitment—the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long- and short-term bonds.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Cristiano Cantore","Paul Levine","Giovanni Melina","Joseph Pearlman"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000207","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dbb157a9b131a20a","title":"Detecting groups in large vector autoregressions","abstract":"This work introduces the stochastic block vector autoregressive (SB-VAR) model. In this class of vector autoregressions, the time series are partitioned into latent groups such that spillover effects are stronger among series that belong to the same group than otherwise. A key question that arises in this framework is how to detect the latent groups from a sample of observations generated by the model. To this end, we propose a group detection algorithm based on the eigenvectors of a function of the estimated autoregressive matrices. We establish that the proposed algorithm consistently detects the groups when the cross-sectional and time-series dimensions are sufficiently large. The methodology is applied to study the group structure of a panel of risk measures of top financial institutions in the United States and a panel of word counts extracted from Twitter.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Guðmundur Guðmundsson","Christian T. Brownlees"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.03.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dbb88a06d0c2f0d5","title":"The international dimension of trend inflation","abstract":"A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition investigates the role of different slow-moving trends – i.e., globalization, expectations, automation, labor demand and supply – in shaping the slow-moving dynamics of trend inflation. Despite well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported “cost-push” factors induced disinflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence of inflation volatility increasingly driven by international factors. These results can explain why, from 2000 in the U.S. and before the recent surge, inflation remained both below target and silent to domestic slack.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Guido Ascari","Luca Fosso"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103896","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dbcdb237ce05aa32","title":"Women’s agricultural work and nutrition in South Asia: From pathways to a cross-disciplinary, grounded analytical framework","abstract":"In this systematic review, we aim to examine the impact of women’s work in agriculture on maternal and child nutrition in South Asia. Building on previous reviews supported under the Leveraging Agriculture for Nutrition in South Asia (LANSA) consortium, and recent published literature, we include findings from new LANSA research. While mapping literature onto the gender-nutrition pathways linking agriculture to nutrition (Kadiyala et al., 2014), we also point to conceptual and methodological directions for further exploration emerging from our work. Key amongst these are a focus on seasonality, poverty, and gender relations, moving beyond both an exclusive focus on women as a unified and homogenous group, and agriculture as an unchanging and common set of activities and production processes. Our analysis suggests the need for a more contextualised approach, and for a richer cross-disciplinary framework for effectively addressing the ways in which women’s work mediates agriculture’s role in improving child and maternal nutrition in South Asia.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Nitya Rao","Haris Gazdar","Devanshi Chanchani","Marium Ibrahim"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.10.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dbd34149ef325e4d","title":"Strategies and consequences of local fiscal consolidation: Evidence from Germany","abstract":"We investigate the consequences of a large-scale fiscal consolidation program for German municipalities. Identification relies on a difference-in-differences approach exploiting political discretion in the program’s assignment rule. We find that targeted jurisdictions improved their fiscal balance by EUR 190 per capita and year net of the program-induced grants. Local consolidation strategies differed significantly by population size, which we rationalize with agglomeration economies. Spending cuts and tax increases had little effect on the local economy. However, we detect declines in population levels and house prices as well as electoral backlash in smaller municipalities that disproportionally increased the property tax and cut spending on local public services.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Melinda Fremerey","Andreas Lichter","Max Löffler"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103792","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dbdbf37e58d79ff0","title":"Does Capital Account Liberalization Affect Income Inequality?","abstract":"By adopting an identification strategy of difference‐in‐difference estimation combined with propensity score matching between liberalized and closed countries, this paper provides robust evidence that opening the capital account is associated with an increase in income inequality in developing countries. Specifically, capital account liberalization, in the long run, is associated with a reduction in the income share of the poorest half by 2.66–3.79% points and an increase in that of the richest 10% by 5.19–8.76% points. Moreover, directions and categories of capital account liberalization matter. The relationship is more pronounced when liberalizing inward and equity capital flows.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Xiang Li","Dan Su"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12405","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dbf7f38106c27fc2","title":"Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries","abstract":"Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.","wordCount":77,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Nir Jaimovich","Henry Siu"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00875","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-dbf82a40650273b1","title":"Economic and policy uncertainty: Aggregate export dynamics and the value of agreements","abstract":"We examine the interaction of economic and policy uncertainty in a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model. Uncertainty about foreign income, trade protection, and their interaction dampens export investment. Trade agreements can mitigate uncertainty and the probability of policy uncertainty shocks. We use firm data from 2003–2011 to establish new facts about U.S. export dynamics. These facts include a differentially lower export growth to non-preferential markets driven by the extensive margin at the start of the Great Trade Collapse. The structural model can explain this differential as a consequence of a shock to demand uncertainty. The shock was three times larger for non-preferential markets than preferential ones and it was later reversed, which is consistent with the timing of trade war fears in the crisis.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Jerónimo Carballo","Kyle Handley","Nuno Limão"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103661","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dbfa5b759cc468da","title":"Measuring the Labor Income Share of Developing Countries: Lessons From Social Accounting Matrices","abstract":"This paper addresses the challenges of measuring the labor income share of developing countries. The poor availability and reliability of national account data as well as the fact that self‐employed—whose labor income is hard to capture—account for a major share of the workforce and often work in the informal sector render its computation difficult. Consequently, measuring the labor share requires assumptions. I consult social accounting matrices in addition to national account data to gain information on the production structure and self‐employed incomes in developing countries. The final data set covers about 90 developing countries from 1990 to 2011. The data suggest that the finding of declining labor shares of previous studies also applies to the sample of low and middle‐income countries. Furthermore, I find the labor share in developing countries to be about one‐half in size and hence less than the standard “two‐thirds” in economic literature.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Katharina van Treeck"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12424","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dbfab2537099a717","title":"Nation-building Through Compulsory Schooling during the Age of Mass Migration","abstract":"Why did America introduce compulsory schooling laws at a time when financial investments in education and voluntary school attendance were high? We provide qualitative and quantitative evidence that states adopted compulsory schooling laws as a nation-building tool to instil civic values to the culturally diverse migrants during the ‘Age of Mass Migration’ between 1850 and 1914. We show the adoption of compulsory schooling laws occurred significantly earlier in states that hosted European migrants with lower exposure to civic values in their home countries. Using cross-county data, we show that these migrants had significantly lower demand for American schooling pre-compulsion.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Oriana Bandiera","Myra Mohnen","Imran Rasul","Martina Viarengo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12624","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dc0c29b07ccb7044","title":"Long-term effects of weather-induced migration on urban labor and housing markets","abstract":"This paper explores the effects of weather-induced rural–urban migration on labor and housing market outcomes of urban residents in Brazil. In order to identify causal effects, it uses weather shocks to the rural municipalities of origin of migrants. We show that larger migration shocks led to an increase in employment growth and a reduction in wage growth of 4 and 5 percent, respectively. The increased migration flows also affected the housing market in destination cities. On average, it led to 4 percent faster growth of the housing stock, accompanied by 6 percent faster growth in housing rents. These effects vary sharply by housing quality. We find a substantial positive effect on the growth rates of the most penurious housing units (with no effect on rents) and a negative effect on the growth of housing units in the next quality tier (with a positive effect on rents). This suggests that rural immigration growth slowed down housing-quality upgrading in destination cities.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Matí­as Busso","Juan Pablo Chauvin"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2025.103739","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dc21ec8ebade46b5","title":"Finance and economic growth: Financing structure and non-linear impact","abstract":"Focusing on groups of high-income countries (OECD, EU, and EMU), this study shows that the finding of a non-linear, hump-shaped impact of financing on economic growth is robust to controlling for financing composition in terms of the sources (bank credit, debt securities, stock market) and the recipients of finances (households, non-financial and financial corporations), or both. In particular, we obtain the following results. First, the non-linear impact of total bank credit is more pronounced than that of either household credit alone, or the sum of bank credit, debt securities, and stock market financing. Second, credit to non-financial corporations tends to have a positive, while credit to households a negative impact on growth, even after allowing for non-linearities. Third, debt-securities and stock market-based financing have a different impact on growth. Finally, the estimated turning point of the non-linear relationship is close to that found by Cournède and Denk (2015) for the OECD countries, and lower than that established by Arcand, Berkes, and Panizza (2015) for a broad set of countries.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Péter Benczúr","Stelios Karagiannis","Virmantas Kvedaras"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dc3a253f1416a803","title":"The thin blue line in schools: New evidence on school‐based policing across the U.S.","abstract":"U.S. public school students increasingly attend schools with sworn law enforcement officers present. Yet little is known about how these school resource officers (SROs) affect school environments or student outcomes. Our study uses a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) design with national school‐level data from 2014 to 2018 to estimate the impacts of SRO placement. We construct this discontinuity based on the application scores for federal school‐based policing grants of linked police agencies. We find that SROs effectively reduce some forms of violence in schools, but do not prevent gun‐related incidents. We also find that SROs intensify the use of suspension, expulsion, police referral, and arrest of students. These increases in disciplinary and police actions are consistently largest for Black students, male students, and students with disabilities.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Lucy C. Sorensen","Montserrat Avila‐Acosta","John Engberg","Shawn D. Bushway"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22498","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dc4e9e58849d0bc3","title":"Sovereign debt restructurings: Preemptive or post-default","abstract":"Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively—prior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new data set and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978–2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower output losses. To rationalize these stylized facts, we build a quantitative sovereign debt model that incorporates preemptive and post-default renegotiations. The model improves the fit with the data and explains the sovereign’s optimal choice: preemptive restructurings occur when default risk is high ex ante, while defaults occur after unexpected bad shocks. Empirical evidence supports these predictions.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Tamon Asonuma","Christoph Trebesch"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","P","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12156","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dc5c9ace5683cfcf","title":"Does Diversity Matter for Health? Experimental Evidence from Oakland","abstract":"We study the effect of physician workforce diversity on the demand for preventive care among African American men. In an experiment in Oakland, California, we randomize black men to black or non-black male medical doctors. We use a two-stage design, measuring decisions before (pre-consultation) and after (post-consultation) meeting their assigned doctor. Subjects select a similar number of preventives in the pre-consultation stage, but are much more likely to select every preventive service, particularly invasive services, once meeting with a racially concordant doctor. Our findings suggest black doctors could reduce the black-white male gap in cardiovascular mortality by 19 percent.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Marcella Alsan","Owen Garrick","Grant Graziani"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181446","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dc5d3cd621e33b5c","title":"Government Credit, a Double‐Edged Sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank","abstract":"Using proprietary data from the China Development Bank (CDB), this paper examines the effects of government credit on firm activities. Tracing the effects of government credit across different levels of the supply chain, I find that CDB industrial loans to state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) crowd out private firms in the same industry but crowd in private firms in downstream industries. On average, a $1 increase in CDB SOE loans leads to a $0.20 decrease in private firms' assets. Moreover, CDB infrastructure loans crowd in private firms. I use exogenous timing of municipal politicians' turnover as an instrument for CDB credit flows.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Hong Ru"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12585","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dc5f9606535fa96e","title":"Sustaining peace through better resource governance: Three potential mechanisms for environmental peacebuilding","abstract":"For international and domestic actors, post-conflict peacebuilding is one of the most difficult policy arenas to understand and in which to operate. Environmental and natural resource governance have the potential to facilitate peacebuilding in such contexts, but existing research has not yet produced a cohesive theoretical understanding of the pathways by which natural resource management strategies can facilitate positive peace. This paper explores the wider benefits of natural resource management and discusses their potential for reducing political fragility in affected states and helping to build positive peace. The paper outlines three mechanisms through which improved natural resource governance in post-conflict contexts is theorized to have positive effects on peace: (a) the contact hypothesis, whereby the facilitation of intergroup cooperation reduces bias and prejudice; (b) the diffusion of transnational norms, where the introduction of environmental and other good governance norms supports human empowerment and strengthens civil society; and (c) state service provision, where the provision of access to public services addresses the instrumental needs of communities, thereby strengthening their belief in the state. Guided by an interest in the opportunities presented by natural resource management to support peacebuilding processes in post-conflict states, the paper seeks to revise and advance the current environmental peacebuilding research agenda.","wordCount":204,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Florian Krampe","Farah Hegazi","Stacy D. VanDeveer"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105508","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dc68d113fc640e41","title":"Nonrivalry and the Economics of Data","abstract":"Data is nonrival: a person’s location history, medical records, and driving data can be used by many firms simultaneously. Nonrivalry leads to increasing returns. As a result, there may be social gains to data being used broadly across firms, even in the presence of privacy considerations. Fearing creative destruction, firms may choose to hoard their data, leading to the inefficient use of nonrival data. Giving data property rights to consumers can generate allocations that are close to optimal. Consumers balance their concerns for privacy against the economic gains that come from selling data broadly.","wordCount":94,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Charles I. Jones","Christopher Tonetti"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191330","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dc820caa489cc6cf","title":"Moderate opulence: the evolution of wealth inequality in Mexico in its first century of independence","abstract":"This article presents the first complete 19th-century reconstruction of the Mexican wealth distribution, from independence to the Mexican Revolution. It uses an often underutilized source in Mexican historiography: will inventories/protocols. In addition, the present article estimates the levels and trends of historical wealth inequality using five different methods, among them the application of the properties of two theoretical parametric distributions to the measurement of historical inequality. The dynamics of wealth inequality in 19th century Mexico were dominated by the top 1% and the middle 40% of the wealth distribution; meanwhile, the top 10% and bottom 50% demonstrate remarkable stability. This article makes significant contributions through two primary avenues: firstly, the reconstruction of historical wealth inequality, and secondly, the analysis of historical developments in the context of their potential impact on the distribution of wealth within a dynamic political economy environment. N36, D31, I32, H20.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Diego Castañeda Garza"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101567","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dc878cd6c0f83142","title":"Investor preferences for positive social externalities and state-owned enterprises’ facilitated access to capital","abstract":"State-ownership of commercial companies exists around the world, and it is important to understand its effect on financing and investment decisions. Empirically, firms that are partially state-owned (SOE) usually profit from easier access to capital. We propose a novel explanation for this: investors’ social preferences can affect capital allocation if SOEs are perceived as socially beneficial. In support of this we found that people attribute social benefits more to SOEs than to private firms, and their propensity to invest depends on this attitude. Further, in an incentivized modified stochastic public goods game, participants invested in risky options with positive externalities even when the aggregate of private return and externality was lower than the return of an investment option with only private returns. For the case of the EU, we discuss alternative explanations such as state guarantees and political lending in the light of regulations of state aid. We conclude that even if these regulations prohibit direct or indirect state aid for SOEs, state-ownership can affect capital allocation through investors’ social preferences.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Sebastian Olschewski","Lukas A. Jakob","Ulrich Schmidt"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102575","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dc883ac8f2ef9c71","title":"Solid outcomes in finite games","abstract":"A new solution concept for finite games is presented and analyzed. It is defined in terms of outcomes—probability distributions over the plays of the game. Solid outcomes are robust to the representation of the game, whether in normal or extensive form, and are consistent with backward induction. They are also unaffected by the removal or addition of dominated strategies. Solid outcome sets exist in all finite extensive-form games with perfect recall. They have support in minimal “game blocks,” a class of product sets of pure-strategy profiles that are robust set-valued candidates for conventions and social norms in recurrent population play of the game. Algorithms for identifying all solid outcomes are presented, and simulations illustrate the solution concept's significant cutting power and computational efficiency.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Klaus Ritzberger","Jörgen W. Weibull","Peter Wikman"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.105977","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dc8ab3092f22badc","title":"The Use and Misuse of Income Data and Extreme Poverty in the United States","abstract":"Recent research suggests that the share of US households living on less than $2/person/day is high and rising. We reexamine such extreme poverty by linking SIPP and CPS data to administrative tax and program data. We find that more than 90% of those reported to be in extreme poverty are not, once we include in-kind transfers, replace survey reports of earnings and transfer receipt with administrative records, and account for ownership of substantial assets. More than half of all misclassified households have incomes from the administrative data above the poverty line, and many have middle-class measures of material well-being.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Bruce Meyer","Derek Wu","Victoria Mooers","Carla Medalia"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711227","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dc95d398d27011a1","title":"Validity and reliability of contingent valuation and life satisfaction measures of welfare: An application to the value of national Olympic success","abstract":"The contingent valuation method (CV) has long been used to estimate nonmarket values of environmental and other public goods and amenities. Recently, life satisfaction (LS) measures have been used to estimate nonmarket values. This article empirically compares CV and LS measures of welfare. We elicit willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) estimates for medals won by Canadian athletes and LS measures using Canadian survey data collected before and after the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. These data permit comparative analyses of reliability and validity of CV and LS measures. Both exhibit econometric reliability. CV and LS WTP estimates for medals increase after the Olympics. CV measures of WTP exhibit temporal reliability but LS measures of welfare lack temporal reliability and are significantly greater than CV measures.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Brad R. Humphreys","Bruce K. Johnson","John C. Whitehead"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12453","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dc98758143d2f0ed","title":"A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends","abstract":"This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event-study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated. Instead of requiring that parallel trends holds exactly, we impose restrictions on how different the post-treatment violations of parallel trends can be from the pre-treatment differences in trends (“pre-trends”). The causal parameter of interest is partially identified under these restrictions. We introduce two approaches that guarantee uniformly valid inference under the imposed restrictions, and we derive novel results showing that they have desirable power properties in our context. We illustrate how economic knowledge can inform the restrictions on the possible violations of parallel trends in two economic applications. We also highlight how our approach can be used to conduct sensitivity analyses showing what causal conclusions can be drawn under various restrictions on the possible violations of the parallel trends assumption.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Ashesh Rambachan","Jonathan Roth"],"year":2023,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dc9b21f03de17452","title":"Heat and Learning","abstract":"We demonstrate that heat inhibits learning and that school air conditioning may mitigate this effect. Student fixed effects models using students who retook the PSATs show that hotter school days in the years before the test was taken reduce scores, with extreme heat being particularly damaging. Weekend and summer temperatures have little impact, suggesting heat directly disrupts learning time. New nationwide, school-level measures of air conditioning penetration suggest patterns consistent with such infrastructure largely offsetting heat’s effects. Without air conditioning, a 1°F hotter school year reduces that year’s learning by 1 percent. Hot school days disproportionately impact minority students, accounting for roughly 5 percent of the racial achievement gap.","wordCount":109,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["R. Jisung Park","Joshua Goodman","Michael Hurwitz","Jonathan Smith"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180612","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dca32ac1920d6e6b","title":"Market power and monetary policy transmission","abstract":"We show that firms' market power dampens the response of their output to monetary policy shocks, using firm‐level data for the USA and a large cross‐country firm‐level dataset for 14 advanced economies. We also find some evidence that the role of markups in monetary policy transmission, while independent from other channels, is greater for firms whose characteristics—notably size and age—are likely to be associated with greater financial constraints.","wordCount":68,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Romain Duval","Davide Furceri","Raphaël Lee","Marina Mendes Tavares"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12512","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dcac85b959a90873","title":"Social security and longevity risk: The case of risky bequest income","abstract":"This paper quantifies the welfare gains from Social Security when individuals face uninsurable longevity risk. While past researchers have studied this basic question, we do so from a unique perspective. In contrast to traditional macroeconomic models that abstract from specific linkages between parents and children, in our model, children are born to specific parents whose longevity is uncertain. And because parental asset holdings evolve over the life of the parent, children face uninsurable bequest income risk in addition to their own longevity risk. We find that Social Security improves ex ante expected utility by 3.4% of lifetime consumption (for the second generation). Because our baseline analysis assumes full information and optimal hedging of longevity risk, we treat these welfare gains as a conservative estimate, and we show that the gains are significantly larger when individuals fail to hedge their longevity risk.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Erin Cottle Hunt","Frank Caliendo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100521000018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dcaf5a49cfe8b660","title":"A test of (weak) certainty independence","abstract":"We provide a test of the axioms of certainty and weak certainty independence in models of decision-making under subjective uncertainty. We show that it is through these two weakenings of the classic independence axiom that prominent ambiguity models retain properties that stand in conflict with the ambiguity-sensitive behavior that is revealed in our experiment. Our findings suggest that this conflict may be of a more fundamental nature than what most of these models can accommodate. Our results call for the use of ambiguity models that can accommodate an ambiguity attitude which depends on the chances of winning.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Christian König-Kersting","Christopher Kops","Stefan T. Trautmann"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105623","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dcc2bfacda371a16","title":"Improving matching under hard distributional constraints","abstract":"Distributional constraints are important in many market design settings. Prominent examples include the minimum manning requirements at each Army branch in military cadet matching and diversity considerations in school choice, whereby school districts impose constraints on the demographic distribution of students at each school. Standard assignment mechanisms implemented in practice are unable to accommodate these constraints. This leads policymakers to resort to ad hoc solutions that eliminate blocks of seats ex ante (before agents submit their preferences) to ensure that all constraints are satisfied ex post (after the mechanism is run). We show that these current solutions ignore important information contained in the submitted preferences, resulting in avoidable inefficiency. We then introduce new dynamic quotas mechanisms that result in Pareto superior allocations while at the same time respecting all distributional constraints and satisfying important fairness and incentive properties. We expect the use of our mechanisms to improve the performance of matching markets with distributional constraints in the field.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Daniel Fragiadakis","Peter Troyan"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2195","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-dcc5c3681c7c7b27","title":"Inequality as an externality: Consequences for tax design","abstract":"Economic inequality may affect a wide range of societal outcomes, for example crime rates, economic growth, and political polarization. In this paper we discuss how to model such effects in welfarist frameworks. Our main suggestion is to treat economic inequality itself as an externality, which has wide-ranging implications for classical economic theory. We show this through the Mirrlees (1971) optimal non-linear income taxation model, where we focus on a post-tax income inequality externality. Optimal top marginal tax rates are particularly affected by the externality, implying a novel equality dimension to optimal top tax rate design. We propose that inequality’s externality properties may have larger optimal top tax rate implications than standard revenue concerns; our model thus provides a theoretical basis for real-world governmental tax choices that seem irrational under standard optimal taxation models. We also show that the total inequality aversion implied by the current U.S. tax system is insufficient to accommodate both social welfare weights that are decreasing in income and a significant concern for inequality’s externality effects.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Morten Nyborg Støstad","Frank Cowell"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105139","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dccef4e2d6fe7333","title":"Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China","abstract":"This study offers novel evidence that reduced trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the destination market promotes domestic entrepreneurial activities in a large developing economy. Exploiting China’s WTO accession as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that Chinese manufacturing industries with greater TPU reduction are associated with relative increases in the new firm entry rate. The TPU effect is more pronounced in industries with lower entry barriers or larger irreversible investments. In addition, TPU reduction fosters new entrants through both the exporting and non-exporting margins and contributes to strengthening regional agglomeration forces. Heterogeneity across regions with varying exporting costs and entry barriers is also identified, illustrating the important synchronization between external openness and internal reform for developing economies. Last, we show that reduction in TPU intensifies industry-level competition, induces better-quality entrants, and that new firm entry plays a non-negligible role in linking TPU reduction to improved economic performance.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Chuantao Cui","Leona Shao‐Zhi Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103093","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dcd4bb09a1e26618","title":"The Great Housing Boom of China","abstract":"China’s housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China’s housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for China’s paradoxical housing boom.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Kaiji Chen","Yi Wen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140234","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dcf892f4828ce3f2","title":"A theory of economic development and dynamics of Chinese economy","abstract":"This paper constructs a theoretical model which captures the recent slowing-down of Chinese economy. In contrast with the previous literature which largely confines its focus on the resource misallocation between inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and more efficient private firms under a closed economy setting, this paper re-examines the dynamics of the growth of Chinese economy from the perspective of an open economy. In particular, this paper incorporates heterogeneous outputs and relative prices into the model, where private firms are assumed to be the major exporters and the remaining large SOEs create increasing import demand from the home country. By adding downward sloping world demand curve, our paper predicts a turning point during the transition process, as the falling relative price for exports starts to constrain and eventually slow down the growth; SOEs begin to co-exist with private firms in the economy before it is fully transformed. Our paper provides a theoretical foundation in terms of understanding the current dynamics and institutional change of Chinese economy. Additionally, this paper also provides quantitative evidence on the effects of financial development during the China's economic transition process.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Saite Lu","Jim Huangnan Shen","Weiping Li","Jun Zhang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.06.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dd032044fb7b7ba2","title":"A Theory of Socially Responsible Investment","abstract":"We characterize the conditions under which a socially responsible (SR) fund induces firms to reduce externalities, even when profit-seeking capital is in perfectly elastic supply. Such impact requires that the SR fund’s mandate permits the fund to trade off financial performance against reductions in social costs—relative to the counterfactual in which the fund does not invest in a given firm. Based on such an impact mandate, we derive the social profitability index, an investment criterion that characterizes the optimal ranking of impact investments when SR capital is scarce. If firms face binding financial constraints, the optimal way to achieve impact is by enabling a scale increase for clean production. In this case, SR and profit-seeking capital are complementary: Surplus is higher when both investor types are present.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Martin Oehmke","Marcus M. Opp"],"year":2024,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae048","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dd0959aa1c1aa4e9","title":"Testing for speculative bubbles using spot and forward prices","abstract":"The probabilistic structure of periodically collapsing bubbles creates a gap between future spot and forward (futures) asset prices in small samples. By exploiting this fact, we use a recently developed recursive unit root test and rolling Fama regressions for detecting bubbles. Both methods do not rely on a particular model of asset price determination, are robust to explosive fundamentals, and allow date stamping. An application to U.S. dollar exchange rates provides evidence of bubbles during the interwar German hyperinflation, but not during the recent floating‐rate period. A further application to S&P 500 supports the existence of bubbles in the U.S. equity market.","wordCount":102,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Efthymios Pavlidis","Iván Payá","David Peel"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12249","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dd0be6983de40d2f","title":"The hidden costs of nudging: Experimental evidence from reminders in fundraising","abstract":"We document the hidden costs of a popular nudge and show how these costs distort policy making when neglected. In a field experiment with a charity, we find reminders increasing intended behavior (donations), but also increasing avoidance behavior (unsubscriptions from the mailing list). We develop a dynamic model of donation and unsubscription behavior with limited attention. We test the model in a second field experiment which also provides evidence that the hidden costs are anticipated. The model is estimated structurally to perform a welfare analysis. Not accounting for hidden costs overstates the welfare effects for donors by factor ten and hides potential negative welfare effects of the charity.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Mette Trier Damgaard","Christina Gravert"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.11.005","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-dd0c69e330366832","title":"Hedging Climate Change News","abstract":"We propose and implement a procedure to dynamically hedge climate change risk. We extract innovations from climate news series that we construct through textual analysis of newspapers. We then use a mimicking portfolio approach to build climate change hedge portfolios. We discipline the exercise by using third-party ESG scores of firms to model their climate risk exposures. We show that this approach yields parsimonious and industry-balanced portfolios that perform well in hedging innovations in climate news both in sample and out of sample. We discuss multiple directions for future research on financial approaches to managing climate risk.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Robert F. Engle","Stefano Giglio","Bryan Kelly","Heebum Lee","Johannes Stroebel"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz072","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dd1af124e4654c27","title":"Risk breeds risk aversion","abstract":"We examine whether exposure to a more or less risky environment affects people’s subsequent risk-taking behavior. In a laboratory setting, all subjects went through twelve rounds of multiple-price-list decisions between a risky alternative and a safe alternative. In the first six rounds, subjects were randomly assigned to a high-, moderate-, or low-risk environment, which differed in the variances of the lotteries they were exposed to. In the last six rounds, subjects in all treatments made decisions on an identical set of lotteries. We found that subjects who had experienced a riskier environment exhibited a higher degree of risk aversion. Our experimental design allows us to conclude that this effect is driven by the risk environment per se, rather than the realized outcomes of the risk. This finding has important theoretical and policy implications.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Tai‐Sen He","Fuhai Hong"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-017-9553-0","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dd2bcc675ac7ac3f","title":"Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: New insights and a new approach","abstract":"We revisit the identification of behavioral responses to tax reforms and develop a new approach for graphical validation and representation of treatment effects. We show that the standard estimation strategy relies on an assumption of constant trend differentials. In the context of income taxation, this implies that differences in income trends across the income distribution should remain constant in the absence of tax reforms. Similar to pre-trend validation of differences-in-differences studies, we can validate this assumption by comparing the evolution of income in untreated parts of the income distribution. We illustrate our new approach by studying several tax reforms in Denmark.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Katrine Marie Jakobsen","Jakob Egholt Søgaard"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104691","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dd2cf9b431d087a1","title":"Differentiated Entry or “Me-Too” Entry in Bertrand and Cournot Oligopoly","abstract":"When would an oligopolistic entrant imitate an incumbent's product (\"me-too\" entry), rather than horizontally differentiate? We allow an entrant's product choice to vary endogenously with the cost of product differentiation. Such endogenity of product differentiation significantly affects the comparison of Bertrand and Cournot duopoly. We find that if Bertrand entry occurs, products are differentiated, whereas there is a substantial region in which Cournot entry involves a homogenous product. Bertrand prices may be higher than Cournot prices; and, if product differentiation costs are low enough to induce Cournot differentiated entry, then Bertrand industry profit equals or exceeds Cournot industry profit.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["James A. Brander","Barbara J. Spencer"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09822-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dd366981b73a963e","title":"Not all group members are created equal: heterogeneous abilities in inter-group contests","abstract":"Competition between groups is ubiquitous in social and economic life, and typically occurs between groups that are not created equal. Here we experimentally investigate the implications of this general observation on the unfolding of symmetric and asymmetric competition between groups that are either homogeneous or heterogeneous in the ability of their members to contribute to the success of the group. Our main finding is that relative to the benchmark case in which two homogeneous compete against each other, heterogeneity within groups per se has no discernable effect on competition, while introducing heterogeneity between groups leads to a significant intensification of conflict as well as increased volatility, thereby reducing earnings of contest participants and increasing inequality. We further find that heterogeneous groups share the labor much more equally than predicted by theory, and that in asymmetric contests group members change the way in which they condition their efforts on those of their peers. Implications for contest designers are discussed.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Francesco Fallucchi","Enrique Fatás","Felix Kölle","Ori Weisel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09677-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dd41eeb529ec37fb","title":"Government intervention, linkages and financial fragility","abstract":"We examine how financial integration affects financial stability and what government intervention maximizes stability and well-being, in a setup where depositors can obtain information on the quality of investments in their bank but there is a friction that prevents them from determining the quality of the investments of the other banks in the system. In this way, depositors will try to withdraw their deposits when they observe that the expected profitability in their bank is low. This situation will lead to a contagion problem as troubled banks may be forced to liquidate their investments in other banks. To prevent this contagion risk and reduce the costs of crises, we look at various policies governments can use, such as recapitalizing troubled banks, increasing capital requirements, or a lender-of-last-resort policy.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Augusto Hasman","Margarita Samartı́n"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106429","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dd467dd748c95f54","title":"Competition Makes Inspectors More Lenient: Evidence from the Motor Vehicle Inspection Market","abstract":"We investigate whether increased competition among inspection firms leads to an increase in the inspection pass rate in the Swedish car inspection market, which is heavily regulated and consciously designed to mitigate incentives to violate government regulations. We use a panel dataset that represent 22.5 million car roadworthiness tests that were conducted during the period 2010–2015. Fixed effects and instrumental variable estimations, which are used to account for the endogeneity of competition, show that inspection stations that operate in highly competitive markets are more lenient toward their customers than are stations that operate in less competitive markets.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Osmis Areda Habte","Håkan J. Holm"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09864-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dd717e670c65cd74","title":"Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings","abstract":"We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas. These increases persist through at least the end of 2015 and are correlated with increases in capital investments, both at the MSA and firm levels. We also find that effects are most pronounced in routine-cognitive occupations, which exhibit relative wage growth as well. We argue that this evidence is consistent with the restructuring of production toward routine-biased technologies and the more-skilled workers that complement them, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Brad J. Hershbein","Lisa Kahn"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161570","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dd85d1a30291f48d","title":"“why not settle down already?” a quantitative analysis of the delay in marriage","abstract":"A striking change in American society in the last 40 years has been the decline and delay in marriage. The fraction of young adults who have never been married increased significantly between 1970 and 2000. Idiosyncratic labor income volatility also rose. We establish a quantitatively important link between these facts. If marriage involves consumption commitments, then a rise in income volatility delays marriage. We quantitatively assess this hypothesis vis‐à‐vis others in the literature. Increased volatility accounts for about 20% of the observed delay in marriage and is strong relative to other mechanisms.","wordCount":92,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Cezar Santos","David Weiss"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12163","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dd88c154e308a2bf","title":"Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation","abstract":"Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Pascual Restrepo"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20171101","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-dd8eab192391a567","title":"Capability accumulation and conglomeratization in the information age","abstract":"The past twenty years have witnessed the emergence of internet conglomerates fueled by acquisitions. We build a simple model of network formation to study this. Following the resource-based view of competitive advantage from the management literature we endow firms with capabilities which drive their competitiveness across markets. Firms can merge to combine their capabilities, spin-off new firms by partitioning their capabilities, or procure unassigned capabilities. We study stable industry structures (stable networks) in which none of these deviations are profitable. We find an upper and lower bound on the size of the largest firm, and show that as markets value more of the same capabilities abrupt increases in these bounds occur.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Jun Chen","Matthew Elliott","Andrew Koh"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105647","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dd99e9cd3eb95a10","title":"Putting the pension back in 401(k) retirement plans: Optimal versus default deferred longevity income annuities","abstract":"The US Treasury recently permitted deferred longevity income annuities to be included in pension plan menus as a default payout solution, yet little research has investigated whether more people should convert some of the $18 trillion they hold in employer-based defined contribution plans into lifelong income streams. We investigate this innovation using a calibrated lifecycle consumption and portfolio choice model embodying realistic institutional considerations. Our welfare analysis shows that defaulting a modest portion of retirees’ 401(k) assets (over a threshold) is an attractive way to enhance retirement security, enhancing welfare by up to 20% of retiree plan accruals.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Vanya Horneff","Raimond Maurer","Olivia S. Mitchell"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105783","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ddb90ef3820133d9","title":"Impacts of a national lockdown on smallholder farmers’ income and food security: Empirical evidence from two states in India","abstract":"In early 2020, the unprecedented nature of COVID-19 prompted India, among many other countries, to put in place stark measures to stem the virus’ spread and the cost of human lives. We analyze data from phone-based surveys on disruptions to agricultural production and food security, administered with 1515 smallholder producers in the states of Haryana and Odisha. We find substantial heterogeneity in how the lockdown affected farmers in these two states, which is likely related to existing structural differences in market infrastructure and to differences in state-specific COVID-related policies. In Odisha, where mechanization is limited, farmers spent more on labor to harvest their crops, and distress selling was more prevalent due to the absence of a well-functioning procurement system for their crops. In Haryana, preexisting market infrastructure allowed the state to sustain procurement at stable prices, limiting impacts on smallholder production. As consumers, farmers in Haryana faced more disruptions than those in Odisha, due to reduced availability of foods in the markets, whereas farmers in Odisha benefited from more diverse cropping patterns and increased local supply of foods following transport restrictions.","wordCount":181,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Francisco Ceballos","Samyuktha Kannan","Berber Kramer"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105069","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ddc0b39a09f6b20c","title":"Heterogeneous facility location with limited resources","abstract":"We initiate the study of the heterogeneous facility location problem with limited resources. We mainly focus on the fundamental case where a set of agents are positioned in the line segment [0,1] and have approval preferences over two available facilities. A mechanism takes as input the positions and the preferences of the agents, and chooses to locate a single facility based on this information. We study mechanisms that aim to maximize the social welfare (the total utility the agents derive from facilities they approve), under the constraint of incentivizing the agents to truthfully report their positions and preferences. We consider three different settings depending on the level of agent-related information that is public or private. For each setting, we design deterministic and randomized strategyproof mechanisms that achieve a good approximation of the optimal social welfare, and complement these with nearly-tight impossibility results.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Argyrios Deligkas","Aris Filos-Ratsikas","Alexandros A. Voudouris"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.03.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ddc7d0300011214b","title":"Navigating investment decisions with social connectedness: Implications for venture capital","abstract":"This study examines how the geographical structure of social networks shapes venture capital (VC) investment decisions. We find that VC firms invest more in portfolio companies in socially connected regions. The effect is more pronounced among independent, smaller, less reputable, early–stage–focused VC firms and those not from a VC hub. We further document that social connectedness lowers the likelihood of a successful exit since it induces VC firms to undertake suboptimal investment decisions. Overall, our findings highlight the role of social connectedness in constituting the geographical differences in VC firms’ capital allocation and investment outcomes.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Giang Nguyen","My Nguyеn","Anh Viet Pham","Man Duy Pham"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106979","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ddd84ca0fdee7fa1","title":"Local Economic Impacts of Coal Mining in the United States 1870 to 1970","abstract":"This article expands upon the current “resource curse” literature by using newly collected county data, spanning over a century, to capture the short- and long-run effects of coal mining activity. It provides evidence that increased levels of coal production had positive net impacts on county-level population and manufacturing activity over an initial ten-year span, which become negative over the subsequent decades. The results provide evidence that any existence of a “resource curse” on local areas due to coal mining is a long-run phenomenon, and in the short run there are potential net benefits.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Mike Matheis"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002205071600098x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ddf1fd612b6eee94","title":"Challenges and opportunities for increasing the effectiveness of food reformulation and fortification to improve dietary and nutrition outcomes","abstract":"Reformulation, a change to a food or beverage's processing or composition, can reduce potentially harmful ingredients such as salt, added sugar, and saturated and trans fats or increase potentially beneficial ingredients or nutrients such as fiber, protein, and micronutrients. Poor nutrition and health outcomes of populations have stimulated programs and policies to reduce the intake of salt, added sugar, and unhealthy fats and increase healthy nutrients and ingredients to meet recommended targets of a healthy diet. Alongside promoting the consumption of whole, nutritious foods (e.g., fruits, vegetables, and whole grains), reformulation, including fortification of processed foods, has been utilized by food industry manufacturers to contribute to improving diets and aligning with national dietary guidelines. This paper summarizes a literature review and twenty semi-structured interviews with experts on food product reformulation and fortification to highlight the challenges, limitations, and opportunities for increasing their effectiveness. While studies have shown that reformulation could have beneficial public health impacts, such as iodized salt, there are a dearth of rigorous evaluations, particularly for some types of reformulations. Importantly, some evidence suggests that ultra-processing has significant adverse health effects independently of nutrient adequacy. To improve population health, reformulation should be complemented with a range of approaches, including food taxes and subsidies, public food procurement, restrictions on food advertising and marketing, front-of-pack labeling, and changes to food environments that improve availability, affordability, and demand for whole and minimally processed foods.","wordCount":233,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Jessica Fanzo","Rebecca McLaren","Alexandra L. Bellows","Bianca Carducci"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102515","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ddf4af8e59c235f5","title":"Accounting for the UK Productivity Puzzle: A Decomposition and Predictions","abstract":"This paper revisits the UK productivity puzzle using new data on outputs and inputs and clarifying the role of output mismeasurement, input growth and industry effects. Our data indicate an implied labour productivity gap of 13 percentage points in 2011 relative to the productivity level on pre‐recession trends. We find that: (a) the labour productivity puzzle is a TFP puzzle, since it is not explained by the contributions of labour or capital services; (b) the reallocation of labour between industries deepens rather than explains the puzzle (i.e. there has been a reallocation of hours away from low‐productivity industries and toward high productivity industries); (c) capitalization of R&D does not explain the productivity puzzle; (d) assuming increased scrapping rates since the recession, a 25% (50%) increase in depreciation rates post‐2009 can potentially explain 15% (31%) of the productivity puzzle; (e) industry data show that 35% of the TFP puzzle can be explained by weak TFP growth in the oil & gas and finance sectors; and (f) cyclical effects via factor utilization could potentially explain 17% of the productivity puzzle. Continued weakness in finance would suggest a future lowering of TFP growth to around 0.8% p.a. from a baseline of 0.9% p.a.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Peter Goodridge","Jonathan Haskel","Gavin Wallis"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12219","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-de0f0635d8425d2b","title":"Intangible capital, the labour share and national ‘growth regimes’","abstract":"This paper examines how far an increase in the intangible capital-to-output ratio contributes to changes in labour share. We focus on a selection of OECD countries using industry-level data from 1995 to 2017. We show that the relationship between intangible capital and labour share is heterogeneous, and whether it is positive or negative depends on the types of intangibles and the growth regime of the national economy. In the Nordic countries, whose growth regimes balance domestic demand and exports of high-value services, the net effect of intangible capital on the labour share is tiny but positive. In contrast, it is negative for countries with high-quality manufacturing exporting sectors, such as Germany, Belgium and Austria. The evidence suggests that there are counteracting impacts in the USA and the UK, although the net effect is positive. We examine the bidirectional causality between the labour share and intangibles, showing that those behave as gross complements in the Nordic countries and as gross substitutes in the high-quality manufacturing export-led regimes; in the rest of the regimes, it depends on the asset.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Aida García-Lazaro","Nick Pearce"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.01.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-de160aa85d77a728","title":"Countering racial discrimination in algorithmic lending: A case for model-agnostic interpretation methods","abstract":"In respect to racial discrimination in lending, we introduce global Shapley value and Shapley–Lorenz explainable AI methods to attain algorithmic justice. Using 157,269 loan applications during 2017 in New York, we confirm that these methods, consistent with the parameters of a logistic regression model, reveal prima facie evidence of racial discrimination. We show, critically, that these explainable AI methods can enable a financial institution to select an opaque creditworthiness model which blends out-of-sample performance with ethical considerations.","wordCount":77,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Shivam Agarwal","Cal B. Muckley","P. Neelakantan"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111117","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-de1e31708f40aebc","title":"Assessing linkages between alternative energy markets and cryptocurrencies","abstract":"Surmounted environmental concerns and energy challenges have created an augmented awareness among the public and policymakers about alternate energy resources. Using a network approach, this paper aims to investigate the dependence between cryptocurrencies and the alternative energy market using data from January 1, 2018, to December 23, 2021. For this investigation, first, we build a static dependency network for a given set of variables using partial correlations. Then, we demonstrate within-system connections in a minimum spanning tree (MST) to assess the centrality of all variables. Finally, rolling-window estimations are made to exhibit time variations in both dependency and centrality networks. We find that clean alternative markets (SPGCE, ELEVHC & WILCE) and ETH are net risk transmitters to other markets and system-wide net contributors. We also demonstrate how SPGCE is essential for tying together the various parts of the networks and provide convincing evidence of time-varying within-system dependency. Our thorough examination of the dependency analysis offers significant insights to macroprudential regulators, policymakers, and portfolio managers, enabling them to safeguard the most vulnerable markets and choose the best legislative and policy measures to protect investors' interests in the face of unforeseen financial and economic conditions.","wordCount":193,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Muhammad Abubakr Naeem","Raazia Gul","Saqib Farid","Sitara Karim","Brian M. Lucey"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.035","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-de3ab2124bd6820d","title":"Like a duck to water: Do credit rating analysts outperform in bond fund management","abstract":"This paper investigates whether bond fund managers with credit rating experience outperform their peers. We document that bond fund managers who previously worked in credit rating agencies on average create higher risk-adjusted returns than their peers by 11–16 bps per month, with better security picking and market timing skills. We further confirm that this outperformance is sourced from their industry-specific knowledge gained via rating experience (specialization), rather than information advantage provided by previous colleagues (network). Last, we document net inflows to funds managed by agent managers, indicating the investor awareness of analyst managers' skill.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Xiaolu Hu","Haoyi Luo"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102434","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-de40ac334e8211a2","title":"Rules versus Discretion in Public Service: Teacher Hiring in Mexico","abstract":"This paper compares the performance of teachers hired on the basis of a standardized exam to those hired at the union’s discretion in Mexico. My results show that the discretionary hires perform considerably worse than the rule-based hires (as measured by value added to student achievement). The evidence presented here shows the impact of personnel selection mechanisms on the quality of public service delivery.","wordCount":64,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Ricardo Estrada"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/700192","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-de4eeab74c38b29a","title":"Growth, Trade, and Inequality","abstract":"We introduce firm and worker heterogeneity into a model of innovation†driven endogenous growth. Individuals who differ in ability sort into either a research activity or a manufacturing sector. Research projects generate new varieties of a differentiated product. Projects differ in quality and the resulting technologies differ in productivity. In both sectors, there is a complementarity between firm quality and worker ability. We study the co†determination of growth and income inequality in both the closed and open economy, as well as the spillover effects of policy in one country to outcomes in others.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Gene M. Grossman","Elhanan Helpman"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14518","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-de62eca9728dbf5a","title":"Worms at Work: Long-run Impacts of a Child Health Investment","abstract":"This study estimates long-run impacts of a child health investment, exploiting community-wide experimental variation in school-based deworming. The program increased labor supply among men and education among women, with accompanying shifts in labor market specialization. Ten years after deworming treatment, men who were eligible as boys stay enrolled for more years of primary school, work 17% more hours each week, spend more time in nonagricultural self-employment, are more likely to hold manufacturing jobs, and miss one fewer meal per week. Women who were in treatment schools as girls are approximately one quarter more likely to have attended secondary school, halving the gender gap. They reallocate time from traditional agriculture into cash crops and nonagricultural self-employment. We estimate a conservative annualized financial internal rate of return to deworming of 32%, and show that mass deworming may generate more in future government revenue than it costs in subsidies.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Sarah Baird","Joan Hicks","Michael Kremer","Edward Miguel"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw022","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dea3d60a744861a4","title":"Lessons for Americans from Denmark about inequality and social mobility","abstract":"Many progressive American policy analysts point to Denmark as a model welfare state with low levels of income inequality and high levels of income mobility across generations. It has in place many social policies now advocated for adoption in the U.S. Despite generous Danish social policies, family influence on important child outcomes in Denmark is about as strong as it is in the United States. More advantaged families are better able to access, utilize, and influence universally available programs. Purposive sorting by levels of family advantage create neighborhood effects. Powerful forces not easily mitigated by Danish-style welfare state programs operate in both countries.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["James J. Heckman","Rasmus Landersø"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.101999","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-deb9c73d245c6607","title":"Policy evaluation of waste pricing programs using heterogeneous causal effect estimation","abstract":"Using machine learning methods in a quasi-experimental setting, I study the heterogeneous effects of introducing waste prices – unit prices on household unsorted waste disposal – on waste demands and municipal costs. Using a unique panel of Italian municipalities with large variation in prices and observables, I show that waste demands are nonlinear. I find evidence of constant elasticities at low prices, and increasing elasticities at high prices driven by income effects and waste habits before policy. The policy reduces waste management costs in all municipalities after three years of adoption, when prices cause significant reductions in total waste.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Marica Valente"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102755","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-debaa4def182c03d","title":"Choosing on influence","abstract":"Interaction, the act of mutual influence, is an essential part of daily life and economic decisions. This paper presents an individual decision procedure for interacting individuals. According to our model, individuals seek influence from each other for those issues that they cannot solve on their own. Following a choice-theoretic approach, we provide simple properties that aid us to detect interacting individuals. Revealed preference analysis not only grants underlying preferences, but also the influence acquired.","wordCount":74,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Tuğçe Çuhadaroğlu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2170","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-debd5545f1120155","title":"IV methods for Tobit models","abstract":"This paper studies models of processes generating censored outcomes with endogenous explanatory variables and instrumental variable restrictions. Tobit-type left censoring at zero is the primary focus in the exposition. Extension to stochastic censoring is sketched. The models do not specify the process determining endogenous explanatory variables and they do not embody restrictions justifying control function approaches. Consequently, they can be partially or point identifying. Identified sets are characterized and it is shown how inference can be performed on scalar functions of partially identified parameters when exogenous variables have rich support. In an application using data on UK household tobacco expenditures inference is conducted on the coefficient of an endogenous total expenditure variable with and without a Gaussian distributional restriction on the unobservable and compared with the results obtained using a point identifying complete triangular model.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Andrew Chesher","Dongwoo Kim","Adam Rosen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.01.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ded34cd95fbc0ebb","title":"Job destruction and creation: Labor reallocation entailed by the clean air action in China","abstract":"Understanding the mechanism of labor reallocation during the implementation of environmental regulations is important for countries to stabilize employment. Using city-level data and listed firm-level data from 2005 to 2019, we investigated the labor reallocation entailed by the Clean Air Action (CAA) from 2013 to 2017 in China, and found that the CAA substantially reduced labor demand in regulated cities and listed firms. Notably, the CAA has entailed different levels of job destruction and job creation across time, industries, and firm types, boosting labor reallocation. Firstly, the effect of the CAA on labor demand was time-varying, as labor demand first decreased and then recovered from 2013 to 2019. Secondly, the CAA generated a greater job destruction in polluting industries and their downstream industries, and job creation in clean industries. Lastly, thanks to the CAA firms have increased the hiring of highly skilled workers, although equipment upgrades have reduced labor demand, especially in polluting firms.","wordCount":154,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Zhenran Li","Meng Wang","Qunwei Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101945","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dedd0e91bd0ef333","title":"The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Bank Lending Behavior","abstract":"Banks’ exposure to large-scale asset purchases, as measured by the relative prevalence of mortgage-backed securities on their books, affects lending following unconventional monetary policy shocks. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, this paper finds strong effects of the first and third round of quantitative easing (QE1 and QE3) on credit. Highly affected commercial banks increase lending by 2% to 3% relative to their counterparts. QE2 had no significant impact, consistent with its exclusive focus on Treasuries sparsely held by banks. Overall, banks respond heterogeneously, and the type of asset being targeted is central to QE.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Alexander Rodnyansky","Olivier Darmouni"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx063","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-deeb2393f3a56b3c","title":"Serial Rules in a Multi-Unit Shapley-Scarf Market","abstract":"We study generalized Shapley-Scarf exchange markets where each agent is endowed with multiple units of an indivisible and agent-specific good and monetary compensations are not possible. An outcome is given by a circulation which consists of a balanced exchange of goods. We focus on circulation rules that only require as input ordinal preference rankings of individual goods, and agents are assumed to have responsive preferences over bundles of goods. We study the properties of serial dictatorship rules which allow agents to choose either a single good or an entire bundle sequentially, according to a fixed ordering of the agents. We also introduce and explore extensions of these serial dictatorship rules that ensure individual rationality. The paper analyzes the normative and incentive properties of these four families of serial dictatorships and also shows that the individually rational extensions can be implemented with efficient graph algorithms.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Péter Bíró","Flip Klijn","Szilvia Pápai"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.10.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-def4f2e3d66276ee","title":"Why Do U.S. Firms Invest Less over Time?","abstract":"Capital expenditures of U.S. public firms, relative to total assets, decrease by more than half from 1980 to 2020. The decline is pervasive across industries and firms of different characteristics and cannot be explained by the usual determinants of investment and many other seemingly plausible reasons. The decline is consistent with the transformation in production technology — firms rely more on intangible capital and less on fixed assets in production. Industry-level analyses yield supporting evidence. We observe similar declining trend in capital expenditure in other developed countries but not in most emerging markets.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Fangjian Fu","Sheng Huang","Rong Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.07.012","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-def5751fa0d1b998","title":"The effects of voice with(out) punishment: Public goods provision and rule compliance","abstract":"Rule-makers who receive comments choose significantly higher contribution rules. We investigate the effect of voice exercised through comment-based participation on individual public goods provision. We implement a modified linear public goods game with treatments along two dimensions. First, we introduce a comment mechanism where individuals can provide unstructured feedback to influence a third-party rule-maker who determines a minimum contribution rule (MCR) at the beginning of the game. Second, we implement a probabilistic sanctioning mechanism for individuals who do not contribute at least the MCR. We find that without punishment, comments are insufficient to maintain high contribution levels over time. However, when enforcement is present, comment-based participation has a positive effect on players’ contributions to the public good and on their probability of compliance with the MCR. Comments also have a large positive effect on the MCR set by the rule-maker; players, in turn, respond to an increase in the MCR by making larger contributions to the public good.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Stephen Morgan","Nicole M. Mason","Robert Shupp"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.102190","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-df0046ca851bdfb0","title":"Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on US Crime","abstract":"We show that the introduction of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) leads to a decrease in violent crime in states that border Mexico. The reduction in crime is strongest for counties close to the border (less than 350 kilometres) and for crimes that relate to drug trafficking. In addition, we find that MMLs in inland states lead to a reduction in crime in the nearest border state. Our results are consistent with the theory that decriminalisation of the production and distribution of marijuana leads to a reduction in violent crime in markets that are traditionally controlled by Mexican drug trafficking organisations.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Evelina Gavrilova","Takuma Kamada","Floris Zoutman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12521","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-df11d4f8def391a9","title":"Ride‐Sharing, Fatal Crashes, and Crime","abstract":"The advent of smart‐phone based, ride‐sharing applications has revolutionized the vehicle for hire market. Advocates point to the ease of use, lower prices, and shorter wait times compared to hailing a taxi or prearranging limousine service. Others argue that proper government oversight is necessary to protect ride‐share passengers from driver error or vehicle parts failures and violence from unlicensed strangers. Using U.S. county‐level data from 2007 through 2015, we investigate whether the introduction of the ride‐sharing service Uber is associated with changes in fatal vehicle crashes and crime. We find that Uber's entry lowers the rate of DUIs and fatal accidents. For some specifications, we also find declines in arrests for assault and disorderly conduct. Conversely, we observe an increase in vehicle thefts.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Angela K. Dills","Sean E. Mulholland"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12255","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-df23ee3e8139813b","title":"Within Occupation Wage Dispersion and the Task Content of Jobs","abstract":"Most analyses linking task content of jobs to income inequality focus on the effects between occupations, e.g. the growing dispersion between lousy and lovely jobs. The theory, meanwhile, provides insights on links between task content of jobs and inequality also within occupations: models predict compression of wages in more routine jobs, that is those where capital is a direct substitute for labour, and an increase in dispersion in jobs where capital and labour are complements. I document that within occupations dispersion of wages is empirically relevant, as it represents around half of total wage inequality across Europe. I then link wage inequality to the task content of jobs. Using matched employee–employer data from Europe for the period 2002–14, I show that occupations where tasks complement newer technologies exhibit higher wage dispersion. This relationship is robust to adjusting for a variety of confounding and mitigating channels.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Lucas van der Velde"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12368","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-df31cde80a0e4679","title":"High policy uncertainty and low implied market volatility: An academic puzzle?","abstract":"Motivated by the extremely low level of the CBOE VIX accompanied by the high level of U.S. economic policy uncertainty in the period of late 2016 to the end of 2017, we examine the factors affecting the relationship between market volatility and economic policy uncertainty in the United States and the United Kingdom. Our analysis shows that low-quality political signals, higher opinion divergence among investors, and exceptional equity market performance consistently weaken the positive relationship between implied market volatility and policy uncertainty. Our findings help to explain the divergence between the market volatility index and economic policy uncertainty post the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the UK Brexit referendum.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Jędrzej Białkowski","Huong D. Dang","Xiaopeng Wei"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-df55a00286d7f598","title":"JUE Insight: City-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from moving chains","abstract":"We study the city-wide effects of new, centrally-located market-rate housing supply using geo-coded population-wide register data from the Helsinki Metropolitan Area. The supply of new market rate units triggers moving chains that quickly reach middle- and low-income neighborhoods and individuals. Thus, new market-rate construction loosens the housing market in middle- and low-income areas even in the short run. Market-rate supply is likely to improve affordability outside the sub-markets where new construction occurs and to benefit low-income people.","wordCount":77,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Cristina Bratu","Oskari Harjunen","Tuukka Saarimaa"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103528","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-df6ad9b86e623c9f","title":"Dynamic asymmetries in house price cycles: A generalized smooth transition model","abstract":"In this paper we propose a novel nonlinear model to capture asymmetries in real estate cycles. The approach involves a particular parametrization of the transition function used in the transition equation of a smooth transition autoregressive model which improves the fit in the non-central probability region. The dynamic symmetry in house price cycles is strongly rejected for the housing markets taken into consideration. Further, our results show that the proposed model performs well in a out of sample forecasting exercise.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Alessandra Canepa","Emilio Zanetti Chini"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.02.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-df735725f6279e35","title":"Youth responses to political populism: Education abroad as a step toward emigration","abstract":"Populism is on the rise, and democratic rights are deteriorating in many countries as a result of authoritarian policies adopted by populist leaders. This study analyzes how rising political populism in developing countries affects whether their citizens pursue higher education abroad. Applying the Synthetic Control Method, student migration patterns from Hungary, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Indonesia are explored as cases constituting early examples of authoritarian populism. The estimates show that the rise of authoritarianism after the closely contested elections that result in favor of the populist leaders in these countries increases the number of citizens who attend universities in foreign countries. Finding limited evidence for worsening higher education options in the origin countries suggests that more students start pursuing foreign education to increase their chances of living abroad after graduation. Emigration of skilled citizens from developing countries as a consequence of political populism is likely to constitute a threat to the economic performance of these countries in the long-term.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Murat Demirci"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.01.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-df740266156603da","title":"Quantifying the Sources of Firm Heterogeneity","abstract":"We develop and structurally estimate a model of heterogeneous multiproduct firms that can be used to decompose the firm-size distribution into the contributions of costs, “appeal” (quality or taste), markups, and product scope. Using Nielsen barcode data on prices and sales, we find that variation in firm appeal and product scope explains at least four fifths of the variation in firm sales. We show that the imperfect substitutability of products within firms, and the fact that larger firms supply more products than smaller firms, implies that standard productivity measures are highly dependent on implicit demand system assumptions and probably dramatically understate the relative productivity of the largest firms. Although most firms are well approximated by the monopolistic competition benchmark of constant markups, we find that the largest firms that account for most of aggregate sales depart substantially from this benchmark, and exhibit both variable markups and substantial cannibalization effects.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Colin Hottman","Stephen J. Redding","David E. Weinstein"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw012","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-df7ad496bfafd7fb","title":"Does more free childcare help parents work more?","abstract":"Many governments are considering expanding childcare subsidies to increase the labour force participation of parents (especially mothers) with young children. In this paper, we study the potential impact of such a policy by comparing the effects of offering free part-time childcare and of expanding this offer to the whole school day in the context of England. We use two different strategies exploiting free childcare eligibility rules based on date of birth. Both strategies suggest that free part-time childcare only marginally affects the labour force participation of mothers whose youngest child is eligible, but expanding from part-time to full-time free childcare leads to significant increases in labour force participation and employment of these mothers. These effects emerge immediately and grow over the months following entitlement. We find no evidence that parents adjust their labour supply in anticipation of their children’s entitlement to free childcare.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Mike Brewer","Sarah Cattan","Claire Crawford","Birgitta Rabe"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102100","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-df80ba97f3f8ba22","title":"The health effects of nursing home specialization in post-acute care","abstract":"Nursing homes serve both long-term care and post-acute care (PAC) patients, two groups with distinct financing mechanisms and requirements for care. We examine empirically the effect of nursing home specialization in PAC using 2011-2018 data for Medicare patients admitted to nursing homes following a hospital stay. To address patient selection into specialized nursing homes, we use an instrumental variables approach that exploits variation over time in the distance from the patient's residential ZIP code to the closest nursing home with different levels of PAC specialization. We find that patients admitted to nursing homes more specialized in PAC have lower hospital readmissions and mortality, longer nursing home stays, and higher Medicare spending for the episode of care, suggesting that specialization improves patient outcomes but at higher costs.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Zachary S. Templeton","Nate C. Apathy","R. Tamara Konetzka","Meghan Skira","Rachel M. Werner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102823","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-df81fd3d4052f801","title":"The female happiness paradox","abstract":"Using data across countries and over time, we show that women have worse mental health than men in negative affect equations, irrespective of the measure used — anxiety, depression, fearfulness, sadness, loneliness, anger — and they have more days with bad mental health and more restless sleep. Women are also less satisfied with many aspects of their lives, such as democracy, the economy, the state of education, and health services. They are also less satisfied in the moment in terms of peace and calm, cheerfulness, feeling active, vigorous, fresh, and rested. However, prior evidence on gender differences in happiness and life satisfaction is less clear cut. Differences vary over time, location, and with model specification and the inclusion of controls, especially marital status. We now find strong evidence that males have higher levels of both happiness and life satisfaction in recent years even before the onset of the pandemic. As in the past, women continue to have worse mental health. A detailed analysis of several data files, with various metrics, for the UK confirms that men now are happier than women and the size of the effect is not trivial.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["David G. Blanchflower","Alex Bryson"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-00981-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-df8202b2ad7abaa5","title":"Stationary vine copula models for multivariate time series","abstract":"Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and across time points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence and can conveniently capture both types of dependence in the same model. We derive the maximal class of graph structures that guarantee stationarity under a natural and verifiable condition called translation invariance. We propose computationally efficient methods for estimation, simulation, prediction, and uncertainty quantification and show their validity by asymptotic results and simulations. The theoretical results allow for misspecified models and, even when specialized to the iid case, go beyond what is available in the literature. The new model class is illustrated by an application to forecasting returns of a portfolio of 20 stocks, where they show excellent forecast performance. The paper is accompanied by an open source software implementation.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Thomas Nagler","Daniel Krüger","Aleksey Min"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.11.015","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-df8a556eb6f26b25","title":"Market shocks and professionals’ investment behavior – Evidence from the COVID-19 crash","abstract":"We investigate how the experience of extreme events, such as the COVID-19 market crash, influence risk-taking behavior. To isolate changes in risk-taking from other factors, we ran controlled experiments with finance professionals in December 2019 and March 2020. We observe that their investments in the experiment were 12 percent lower in March 2020 than in December 2019, although their price expectations had not changed, and although they considered the experimental asset less risky during the crash than before. This lower perceived risk is likely due to adaptive normalization, as volatility during the shock is compared to volatility experienced in real markets (which was low in December 2019, but very high in March 2020). Lower investments during the crash can be supported by higher risk aversion, not by changes in beliefs.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Christoph Huber","Jürgen Huber","Michael Kirchler"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106247","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-df93817cac932a21","title":"What do Workplace Wellness Programs do? Evidence from the Illinois Workplace Wellness Study","abstract":"Workplace wellness programs cover over 50 million U.S. workers and are intended to reduce medical spending, increase productivity, and improve well-being. Yet limited evidence exists to support these claims. We designed and implemented a comprehensive workplace wellness program for a large employer and randomly assigned program eligibility and financial incentives at the individual level for nearly 5,000 employees. We find strong patterns of selection: during the year prior to the intervention, program participants had lower medical expenditures and healthier behaviors than nonparticipants. The program persistently increased health screening rates, but we do not find significant causal effects of treatment on total medical expenditures, other health behaviors, employee productivity, or self-reported health status after more than two years. Our 95% confidence intervals rule out 84% of previous estimates on medical spending and absenteeism.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Damon Jones","David Molitor","Julian Reif"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz023","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-df9cb419ce854245","title":"Central banking challenges posed by uncertain climate change and natural disasters","abstract":"Climate change poses an important policy challenge for governments around the world. The challenge is made all that much more difficult because of the multitude of potential policymakers involved in setting the policy worldwide. What then should be the role of central banks? How are climate change concerns similar to or distinct from those of other natural disasters? Clarity of ambition and execution will help to ensure that central banks maintain credibility. By adhering to their mandated roles, they retain their critically important distance from the political arena. Their credibility will be further enhanced by avoiding the temptation to exaggerate our understanding of climate change.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Lars Peter Hansen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.09.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dfb3c801e4686e1f","title":"Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy","abstract":"Using a stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model, we analyse (i) the effects of climate change on financial stability and (ii) the financial and global warming implications of a green quantitative easing (QE) programme. Emphasis is placed on the impact of climate change damages on the price of financial assets and the financial position of firms and banks. The model is estimated and calibrated using global data and simulations are conducted for the period 2016–2120. Four key results arise. First, by destroying the capital of firms and reducing their profitability, climate change is likely to gradually deteriorate the liquidity of firms, leading to a higher rate of default that could harm both the financial and the non-financial corporate sector. Second, climate change damages can lead to a portfolio reallocation that can cause a gradual decline in the price of corporate bonds. Third, climate-induced financial instability might adversely affect credit expansion, exacerbating the negative impact of climate change on economic activity. Fourth, the implementation of a green corporate QE programme can reduce climate-induced financial instability and restrict global warming. The effectiveness of this programme depends positively on the responsiveness of green investment to changes in bond yields.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Yannis Dafermos","Maria Nikolaidi","Giorgos Galanis"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.05.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-dfbe920864bbf120","title":"Economic forecasting with an agent-based model","abstract":"We develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro and macro data from national accounts, sector accounts, input–output tables, government statistics, and census and business demography data. The model incorporates all economic activities as classified by the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and includes all economic sectors populated with millions of heterogeneous agents. In addition to being a competitive model framework for forecasts of aggregate variables, the detailed structure of the ABM allows for a breakdown into sector-level forecasts. Using this detailed structure, we demonstrate the ABM by forecasting the medium-run macroeconomic effects of lockdown measures taken in Austria to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential applications of the model include stress-testing and predicting the effects of monetary or fiscal macroeconomic policies.","wordCount":144,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Sebastian Poledna","Michael Miess","Cars Hommes","Katrin Rabitsch"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104306","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dfd220f3908f3079","title":"The Career Costs of Children","abstract":"We estimate a dynamic life cycle model of labor supply, fertility, and savings, incorporating occupational choices, with specific wage paths and skill atrophy that vary over the career. This allows us to understand the trade-off between occupational choice and desired fertility, as well as sorting both into the labor market and across occupations. We quantify the life cycle career costs associated with children, how they decompose into loss of skills during interruptions, lost earnings opportunities, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We analyze the long-run effects of policies that encourage fertility and show that they are considerably smaller than short-run effects.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Jérôme Adda","Christian Dustmann","Katrien Stevens"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690952","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-dfe02eec0cd8cd26","title":"How does origin labelling on food packaging influence consumer product evaluation and choices? A systematic literature review","abstract":"Research on why consumers consider the origin of food products important, how and why it influences consumer choices, and whether they understand and trust it, is fragmented and contradictory. This systematic review of recent, peer-reviewed research finds strong evidence that origin information has a substantial influence on consumers’ food choices. Consumers generally prefer domestic food products to imported and local or regional to other domestic, irrespective of the country or product. The origin becomes less important when trade-offs have to be made and in the presence of other quality cues on the product, such as organic, eco-, or quality assurance labels. Origin information primarily serves two purposes for consumers. First, many believe that food products from some origins are of better quality, safer, more environmentally friendly and in other ways superior to food products from other origins. Second, many consumers feel that it is their duty to support their local or domestic farmers and food industry. A strong ethnocentric bias emerges from the literature review, not only regarding the products consumers buy, but even more regarding their beliefs about products from different origins. In addition, consumers’ understanding and interpretation of information on the origin of food are impeded by a knowledge deficit. However, there is a need for studies digging deeper into deficiencies in consumers knowledge and understanding of origin information. There is also a need for research that disentangles the role of consumer ethnocentrism from other reasons why consumers are interested in origin information.","wordCount":245,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["John Thøgersen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102503","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-dff78696ba11084d","title":"Design and implementation of the price cap on Russian oil exports","abstract":"Basic economics teaches that price caps are bad – limiting the price of a good distorts demand and discourages producers from supplying the market. So why did the Biden Administration, led by Janet Yellen, the consummate economist, champion a price cap on oil from Russia after it invaded Ukraine in 2022? The answer is that this price cap, implemented for crude oil in December 2022 and oil products in February 2023, differs significantly from the standard cap discussed in introductory economics classes. This paper explains these differences and describes the first six months this policy has been in existence. We provide background on Russian oil trade and describe the goals, structure, enforcement and economics of the price cap. We review the main concerns and contrast them with the outcomes observed to date.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Simon Johnson","Łukasz Rachel","Catherine Wolfram"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e006cfbe132948e9","title":"Warm‐glow giving: Earned money and the option to take","abstract":"Giving in dictator games has been shown to vary with the nature of the endowment (earned vs. house money) and the action space (give only vs. the option to give or take). This article is the first to test if these factors similarly affect warm‐glow giving alone. There is no reason that one would expect the same outcomes given that the motivations for warm‐glow giving are different from the motivations for total (warm‐glow plus purely altruistic) giving. We find that warm‐glow giving to charity or philanthropic institutions in a real‐donation experiment increases when the endowment is earned. The option to take does reduce warm‐glow giving to charity, but significant giving remains. Our results suggest that donating earned income creates greater utility than donating an equal amount from a windfall gain, and that warm glow comes not merely from the act of giving, but also from the characteristics of the recipient.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["R. Andrew Luccasen","Philip J. Grossman"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12417","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e0095b83238c21cd","title":"Rational expectations and farsighted stability","abstract":"In the study of farsighted coalitional behavior, a central role is played by the von Neumann–Morgenstern (1944) stable set and its modification that incorporates farsightedness. Such a modification was first proposed by Harsanyi (1974) and was recently reformulated by Ray and Vohra (2015). The farsighted stable set is based on a notion of indirect dominance in which an outcome can be dominated by a chain of coalitional “moves” in which each coalition that is involved in the sequence eventually stands to gain. However, it does not require that each coalition make a maximal move, i.e., one that is not Pareto dominated (for the members of the coalition in question) by another. Consequently, when there are multiple continuation paths, the farsighted stable set can yield unreasonable predictions. We restrict coalitions to hold common, history independent expectations that incorporate maximality regarding the continuation path. This leads to two related solution concepts: the rational expectations farsighted stable set and the strong rational expectations farsighted stable set. We apply these concepts to simple games and to pillage games to illustrate the consequences of imposing rational expectations for farsighted stability.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Bhaskar Dutta","Rajiv Vohra"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2454","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-e01438948a98f0a2","title":"Coping With Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macrodynamics of Global Warming","abstract":"This paper presents a macroeconomic model that combines the economic impact of climate change with the pivotal role of private debt. Using a Stock-Flow Consistent approach based on the Lotka–Volterra logic, we couple its nonlinear monetary dynamics of underemployment and income distribution with abatement costs. A calibration of our model at the scale of the world economy enables us to simulate various planetary scenarios. Our findings are threefold: 1) the +2 °C target is already out of reach, absent negative emissions; 2) the long-term (resp. short-term) results of climate change on economic fundamentals may lead to severe economic consequences without the implementation (resp. in case of too rapid an application) of proactive climate policies. Global warming (resp. too fast transition) forces the private sector to leverage in order to compensate for output and capital losses (resp. to lower carbon emissions), thus endangering financial stability; 3) Implementing an adequate carbon price trajectory, as well as increasing the wage share, fostering employment, and reducing private debt make it easier to avoid unintended degrowth and to reach a +2.5 °C target.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Emmanuel Bovari","Gaël Giraud","Florent McIsaac"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.01.034","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e01a962b1cb6444f","title":"The challenge of rural financial inclusion – evidence from microfinance","abstract":"Financial inclusion is said to foster development and growth. However, progress in financial inclusion has been slow in rural areas where poverty is most pronounced. This is often attributed to higher transaction costs, higher risks and a more unfavourable contracting environment which makes it more difficult for financial institutions to achieve and maintain sustainability in rural compared to urban areas. Based on data covering 772 microfinance institutions (MFIs) over the period 2008–2013, we test whether rural financial inclusion, notably lending to rural borrowers, is hampered by stronger sustainability challenges than inclusion in urban markets. Our results suggest that a higher share of rural borrowers has no direct effect on MFI sustainability. However, we find that MFIs with a higher share of rural borrowers are less able to exploit economies of scale and productivity effects. Thus, our results provide support for the view that sustainability challenges make it more difficult to achieve progress in financial inclusion in rural than in urban areas.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Tania López","Adalbert Winkler"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1368990","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e022371c90d21238","title":"Empirical approaches to trust and relational contracts","abstract":"Broadly speaking, economists have studied trust in two somewhat distinct ways. One approach is best captured by notions of generalized trust; another approach places trust at the core of relational contracts. After reviewing two empirical approaches to the study of relational contracts, we provide a preliminary attempt to bridge these two strands of the literature in the context of Rwanda’s coffee supply chain.","wordCount":63,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Rocco Macchiavello","Ameet Morjaria"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102849","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e02711e206ce3388","title":"The impact of CEO political ideology on labor cost reductions and payout decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"Using a hand-collected dataset, we study whether CEO political ideology affected S&P 500 firms’ reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. During the pandemic, CEOs had the option to distribute the pain of the pandemic’s impact onto shareholders by paying lower dividends, onto the workforce by reducing labor costs, or to share the pain. We hypothesize that conservative CEOs were more likely to aggressively reduce labor costs while still meeting dividend expectations. Conversely, other CEOs would have been less likely to meet dividend expectations and less likely to reduce labor costs. Our findings support this hypothesis. We also find that during the pandemic, conservative CEOs used temporary downsizing to avoid earnings losses, enabling them to meet dividend expectations.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Ali Bayat","Marc Goergen","Panagiotis Koutroumpis","Xingjie Wei"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102692","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e02b9a1af96d2aca","title":"For Better or for Worse?: Education and the Prevalence of Domestic Violence in Turkey","abstract":"We exploit a change in the compulsory schooling law in Turkey to estimate the causal effects of education on the prevalence of domestic violence. By adopting a regression discontinuity design, we find that the reform increased women's schooling by one year to one-anda-half years and improved their labor market outcomes, with particularly strong effects for women raised in rural areas. The increase in education among rural women led to an increase in self-reported psychological violence and financial control behavior, without changes in physical violence, partner characteristics, or women's attitudes towards such violence.","wordCount":92,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Bilge Erten","Pinar Keskin"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20160278","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e04959867207202f","title":"The real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy: Evidence from administrative household-level data","abstract":"We analyze the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy at the household level. We exploit administrative Dutch tax and housing records in conjunction with the introduction of a mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) limit. We find that the regulation sharply reduces mortgage leverage with bunching at the LTV limit. While (regulation) affected households reduce total leverage and interest expenses, they also decrease cash balances to satisfy the LTV limit, generating an important solvency-liquidity trade-off. Nevertheless, affected households experience less financial distress after the introduction of the LTV regulation. Moreover, these households experience better liquidity management and smoother consumption following income loss. Overall, our results highlight the key financial stability and real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Sjoerd van Bekkum","Marc Gabarró","Rustom M. Irani","José‐Luis Peydró"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103574","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e049af161be85537","title":"A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing","abstract":"We develop an asset pricing model with flexible heterogeneity in asset demand across investors, designed to match institutional and household holdings. A portfolio choice model implies characteristics-based demand when returns have a factor structure and expected returns and factor loadings depend on the assets’ own characteristics. We propose an instrumental variables estimator for the characteristics-based demand system to address the endogeneity of demand and asset prices. Using US stock market data, we illustrate how the model could be used to understand the role of institutions in asset market movements, volatility, and predictability.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Ralph S. J. Koijen","Motohiro Yogo"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701683","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e04da8b7e798c522","title":"Giving College Credit Where It Is Due: Advanced Placement Exam Scores and College Outcomes","abstract":"We implement a regression discontinuity design using the continuous raw Advanced Placement (AP) exam scores, which are mapped into the observed 1–5 integer scores, for over 4.5 million students. Earning higher AP integer scores positively affects college completion and subsequent exam-taking. Specifically, attaining credit-granting integer scores increases the probability that a student will receive a bachelor’s degree within 4 years by 1–2 percentage points per exam. We also find that receiving a score of 3 over a 2 on junior year AP exams causes students to take between 0.06 and 0.14 more AP exams senior year.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jonathan Smith","Michael Hurwitz","Christopher Avery"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/687568","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e0617158bbf85f89","title":"Market versus optimum allocation in open economies","abstract":"A large body of theoretical and quantitative work concerns models of heterogeneous firms and monopolistic competition. But most of it relies on strong assumptions regarding demand structure, firm-productivity distribution, and country heterogeneity. This paper studies a general-equilibrium model with directly explicitly additive preferences, non-specified productivity distributions, and asymmetric countries, for which much less is known. We first prove the existence and uniqueness of the market equilibrium with a three-stage approach of analyzing competition intensities and wages. We then explore the market-allocation mechanism and provide a baseline comparison between the market and a utilitarian optimum from a global planner's perspective. We show that misallocation in open economies can be decomposed into two effects, driven by country asymmetry and the variable elasticity of substitution. We present two examples exhibiting constant and variable markups, respectively, to illustrate how to apply our general theorem.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Peter Egger","Richard Huang"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.106053","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e0655059298640e0","title":"Liberalizing reforms do not cause suicide: Causal estimation using matching, 1980–2019","abstract":"Particular aspects of reforms, such as soundness of money, seem to moderately ameliorate suicide. The impact of market liberalization on the subjective well-being (SWB) of societies has been thoroughly investigated over the past two decades using indexes of economic freedom. However, one crucial related aspect of well-being at the societal level remains unexplored with aggregate measures of liberalization: rates of suicide. The critical literature on liberalization suggests market reforms are expected to boost suicide. To our knowledge, we are the first to explore the issue using the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) measure in a quasi-experimental framework. We do so by identifying 43 countries experiencing large, sustained jumps in economic freedom. We then use matching methods to obtain the average treatment effect in the 10 years following the jump. Our main finding, which is robust to a variety of alternative specifications, including a different estimator (synthetic difference-in-differences), is that we detect virtually no statistically significant positive effect of aggregate liberalization on suicide at the conventional level. Thus, we are unable to corroborate the critics’ prediction about reforms worsening this aspect of psychological well-being. We find evidence that individual reform packages, such as sound money, instead even work protectively.","wordCount":199,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Tibor Rutar","Minea Rutar"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.01.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e06c248d88424c06","title":"The ladder of prosperity: An analysis of housing wealth accumulation across income groups in urban China","abstract":"Housing has appreciated at a record pace in the 2010s in many countries, and increasingly accounts for a significant share of total household wealth. This paper investigates the disparities in the accumulation of housing wealth by exploring the relationship between income status and housing price appreciation. Drawing on data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey, our findings reveal that lower-income households do not experience proportionate increases in housing wealth compared to their higher-income counterparts. This inequality has also been widened by multiple property ownership. Purchasing lower-valued homes does not explain the disparities in the housing price appreciation. Lower-income households are more likely to own low-quality homes, leading to smaller annual housing price appreciation. Lower-income homeowners are less likely to change their primary residence since they moved in. Trading-up strategies or frequent moving, which help to realise higher annualised price appreciation, are more likely to be deployed by high-income households. Meanwhile, lower-income households are less likely to use mortgage loans than higher-income households. However, this does not impede annual housing price appreciation. This paper also finds that the disparities in housing price appreciation among different income groups are particularly greater in higher-tier cities and in cities that implemented the housing purchase restriction policies, as housing prices are more spectacular in these types of cities. Moreover, the disparities can be greater among households that obtained their dwellings through the second-hand commercial housing market and the self-built housing market. These findings suggest that housing wealth may reinforce income inequalities.","wordCount":247,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Jinqiao Long","Can Cui","Sebastian Kohl","Yunjia Yang"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102428","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e070960aa22863a0","title":"Too-big-to-fail in federations?","abstract":"We consider jurisdictions of different population size that provide local public goods with positive spillovers. Matching grants can induce optimal expenditure levels, but the regions can exploit the rationale behind this system to induce bailouts. We formalize the too-big-to-fail result of Wildasin (1997) by proving that it exists in a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium, in which the central government’s decisions are taken by regional representatives. Furthermore, our model contains the too-big-to-fail and too-small-to-fail outcomes as special cases, and we are the first to derive the conditions under which each result emerges.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Zarko Kalamov","Klaas Staal"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103917","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e0731b6b63bd4a7b","title":"Does high workload reduce the quality of healthcare? Evidence from rural Senegal","abstract":"There is a widely held perception that staff shortages in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) lead to excessive workloads, which in turn worsen the quality of healthcare. Yet there is little evidence supporting these claims. We use data from standardised patient visits in Senegal and determine the effect of workload on the quality of primary care by exploiting quasi-random variation in workload. We find that despite a lack of staff, average levels of workload are low. Even at times when workload is high, there is no evidence that provider effort or quality of care are significantly reduced. Our data indicate that providers operate below their production possibility frontier and have sufficient capacity to attend more patients without compromising quality. This contradicts the prevailing discourse that staff shortages are a key reason for poor quality primary care in LMICs and suggests that the origins likely lie elsewhere.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Roxanne Kovacs","Mylène Lagarde"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102600","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e075b284486a3752","title":"The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-Being Data","abstract":"Are individuals more sensitive to losses than gains in terms of economic growth? We find that measures of subjective well-being are more than twice as sensitive to negative as compared to positive economic growth. We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries, BRFSS data on 2.3 million US respondents, and Eurobarometer data that cover multiple business cycles over four decades. This research provides a new perspective on the welfare cost of business cycles, with implications for growth policy and the nature of the long-run relationship between GDP and subjective well-being.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Jan‐Emmanuel De Neve","George Ward","Femke De Keulenaer","Bert Van Landeghem","Georgios Kavetsos","Michael I. Norton"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00697","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e07fba36aaf3fe44","title":"Economic policy uncertainty and real output: evidence from the G7 countries","abstract":"We use economic policy uncertainty index, and impulse response based test to assess the impact of economic policy-related uncertainty on real economic activity. We use monthly data, over the period from 1985:1 to 2015:3, and impulse response functions to investigate how the economies of the G7 countries respond to positive and negative economic policy uncertainty shocks of different magnitudes. We find that economic policy uncertainty is countercyclical, that the effects of uncertainty shocks increase with size and that the responses of real output to positive and negative economic policy uncertainty shocks are country specific. Our research is important for policymaking and in favour of policies that remove economic uncertainty and its negative effects on the economy. We argue that some control over yellow journalism, a transparent tax system and a set of predictable fiscal and monetary policies can minimize the social costs of economic policy uncertainty.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Khandokar Istiak","Apostolos Serletis"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1441520","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e080d0bcdc5dc27a","title":"Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums","abstract":"We find that an option-based equity tail risk factor is priced in the cross section of currency returns; more exposed currencies offer a low risk premium because they hedge against equity tail risk. A portfolio that buys currencies with high equity tail beta and shorts those with low beta extracts the global component in the tail factor. The estimated price of risk of this novel global factor is consistently negative in currency carry and momentum portfolios, and in portfolios of other asset classes, suggesting that excess returns of these strategies can be partially understood as compensations for global tail risk.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Zhenzhen Fan","Juan M. Londoño","Xiao Xiao"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.020","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e08bf282180a784c","title":"On the optimal design of place-based policies: A structural evaluation of EU regional transfers","abstract":"We quantify general equilibrium effects of place-based policies in a multi-region framework with population mobility, trade and agglomeration economies. Using detailed data on EU transfers, we estimate the local effects of different transfer types on productivity, income and transportation costs. Integrating these estimates into the model, we derive the spatial distribution of economic activity and corresponding welfare that would have materialized without transfers. We show that EU transfers have improved welfare. Substantial further welfare gains could be reached by reallocating funds across regions without increasing the budget. We identify the welfare-optimal spatial distribution for each transfer type and show that wage subsidies should rather be directed to few poor and peripheral regions while investments in transport infrastructure are most efficient in highly productive and/or central regions.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Yashar Blouri","Maximilian von Ehrlich"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103319","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e092b1baf4c0c433","title":"Supply-Side Drug Policy in the Presence of Substitutes: Evidence from the Introduction of Abuse-Deterrent Opioids","abstract":"Overdose deaths from prescription opioid pain relievers nearly quadrupled between 1999 and 2010. We study the consequences of one of the largest supply disruptions to date to abusable opioids - the introduction of an abuse-deterrent version of OxyContin in 2010. Supply-side interventions which limit access to opioids may have the unintended consequence of increasing use of substitute drugs, including heroin. Exploiting cross-state variation in OxyContin exposure, we find that states with the highest initial rates of OxyContin misuse experienced the largest increases in heroin deaths. Our results imply that the recent heroin epidemic is largely due to the reformulation of OxyContin.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Abby Alpert","David Powell","Rosalie Liccardo Pacula"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170082","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e096102445d1ec33","title":"Importing air pollution? Evidence from China’s plastic waste imports","abstract":"Plastic waste trade has grown considerably in the last decades and has led to severe environmental problems in recipient countries. Being the largest recipient, China has permanently banned the imports of plastic waste since 2018. This paper examines the causal effect of plastic waste imports on air pollution by exploiting China’s experience of importing plastic waste and the recent import ban. By combining data on plastic waste imports with PM2.5 data at the city level for the years 2000-2011, we find that plastic waste imports increased PM2.5 density significantly in recipient cities. To evaluate the impact of the import ban on air quality, we employ daily data on air pollution between 2015 and 2020. Our difference-in-differences results show that affected cities, relative to other cities, experienced considerable improvement in air quality following the ban. Further analysis reveals that increased incineration of non-recycled waste is the main channel. These findings provide insights into the costs of importing plastic waste and the potential environmental gains from banning such imports in other countries.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Kerstin Unfried","Feicheng Wang"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102996","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e099bc282dea72d1","title":"Incentives in experiments with objective lotteries","abstract":"Azrieli et al. (J Polit Econ, 2018) provide a characterization of incentive compatible payment mechanisms for experiments, assuming subjects’ preferences respect dominance but can have any possible subjective beliefs over random outcomes. If instead we assume subjects view probabilities as objective—for example, when dice or coins are used—then the set of incentive compatible mechanisms may grow. In this paper we show that it does, but the added mechanisms are not widely applicable. As in the subjective-beliefs framework, the only broadly-applicable incentive compatible mechanism (assuming all preferences that respect dominance are admissible) is to pay subjects for one randomly-selected decision.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Yaron Azrieli","Christopher P. Chambers","Paul J. Healy"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09607-0","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e0ae9e0c20254e51","title":"Do Human Capital Decisions Respond to the Returns to Education? Evidence from DACA","abstract":"This paper studies human capital responses to the availability of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which provides temporary work authorization and deferral from deportation for undocumented, high-school-educated youth. We use a sample of young adults that migrated to the United States as children to implement a difference-in-difference design that compares noncitizen immigrants (“eligible”) to citizen immigrants (“ineligible”) over time. We find that DACA significantly increased high school attendance and high school graduation rates, reducing the citizen-noncitizen gap in graduation by 40 percent. We also find positive, though imprecise, impacts on college attendance.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Elira Kuka","Na’ama Shenhav","Kevin Shih"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180352","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e0b0d3aa1c9bfc3d","title":"Do Job Networks Disadvantage Women? Evidence from a Recruitment Experiment in Malawi","abstract":"We use a field experiment to show that referral-based hiring has the potential to disadvantage qualified women, highlighting another potential channel behind gender disparities in the labor market. Through a recruitment drive for a firm in Malawi, we look at men’s and women’s referral choices under different incentives and constraints. We find that men systematically refer few women, despite being able to refer qualified women when explicitly asked for female candidates. Performance pay also did not alter men’s tendencies to refer men. In addition, women did not refer enough high-quality women to offset men’s behavior.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Lori Beaman","Niall Keleher","Jeremy Magruder"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/693869","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e0c21a20b2eabf7c","title":"Using covariates to improve the efficacy of univariate bubble detection methods","abstract":"We explore how information additional to a specific price series can be used to improve the power of popular univariate autoregressive-based methods for detecting and dating speculative price bubble episodes. Following Phillips et al. (2011, 2015) we base our approach on sequences of sub-sample regression-based augmented Dickey–Fuller [ADF] statistics. Our point of departure from these extant procedures is to allow for additional information in the testing and dating procedures. To do so we follow the approach of Hansen (1995) and augment the sub-sample ADF regressions with covariate regressors. The limiting null distributions of the resulting statistics depend on the long-run squared correlation between the covariates and the regression error. We show that this dependence can be accounted for by using a residual bootstrap re-sampling method. Simulation evidence shows that including relevant covariates can significantly improve the efficacy of both the resulting bubble detection tests and the associated date-stamping procedure, relative to using standard sub-sample ADF statistics. An empirical application of the proposed methodology to monthly S&P 500 data is considered, using a variety of candidate covariates. Using these covariates, the onset of the dotcom bubble and the bubble associated with Black Monday are both identified significantly earlier than when using standard methods.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Sam Astill","Robert Taylor","Neil Kellard","Ioannis Korkos"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.12.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e0df44426f26c680","title":"Climate Change and Adaptation in Global Supply-Chain Networks","abstract":"This paper examines how physical climate exposure affects firm performance and global supply chains. We document that heat at supplier locations reduces the operating income of suppliers and their customers. Further, customers respond to perceived changes in suppliers’ exposure: when suppliers’ realized exposure exceeds ex ante expectations, customers are 7% more likely to terminate supplier relationships. Consistent with experience-based learning, this effect increases with signal strength and repetition and decreases with country-level climate adaptation. Subsequent replacement suppliers show a lower expected and realized but similar projected heat exposure. We find similar results for suppliers’ exposure to floods.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Nora Pankratz","Christoph Schiller"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad093","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-e0f83db9d3546f37","title":"The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs","abstract":"We estimate the effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs using 138 prominent state-level minimum wage changes between 1979 and 2016 in the United States using a difference-in-differences approach. We first estimate the effect of the minimum wage increase on employment changes by wage bins throughout the hourly wage distribution. We then focus on the bottom part of the wage distribution and compare the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above the new minimum wage to the missing jobs paying below it to infer the employment effect. We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over the five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradeable sectors. We also show how decomposing the overall employment effect by wage bins allows a transparent way of assessing the plausibility of estimates.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Doruk Cengiz","Arindrajit Dubé","Attila Lindner","Ben Zipperer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz014","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e0f9f7da9879a54a","title":"Best-response dynamics in zero-sum stochastic games","abstract":"We define and analyse three learning dynamics for two-player zero-sum discounted-payoff stochastic games. A continuous-time best-response dynamic in mixed strategies is proved to converge to the set of Nash equilibrium stationary strategies. Extending this, we introduce a fictitious-play-like process in a continuous-time embedding of a stochastic zero-sum game, which is again shown to converge to the set of Nash equilibrium strategies. Finally, we present a modified δ-converging best-response dynamic, in which the discount rate converges to 1, and the learned value converges to the asymptotic value of the zero-sum stochastic game. The critical feature of all the dynamic processes is a separation of adaption rates: beliefs about the value of states adapt more slowly than the strategies adapt, and in the case of the δ-converging dynamic the discount rate adapts more slowly than everything else.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["David S. Leslie","Steven W. Perkins","Zibo Xu"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105095","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e0fc0b1264fc3d79","title":"Nation-Building and Education","abstract":"Democracies and dictatorships have different incentives when it comes to choosing how much and by what means to homogenise the population, i.e., ‘to build a nation’. We study and compare nation-building policies under the transition from dictatorship to democracy in a model where the type of government and borders of the country are endogenous. We find that the threat of democratisation provides the strongest incentive to homogenise. We focus upon a specific nation-building policy: mass primary education. We offer historical discussions of nation-building across time and space, and provide correlations for a large sample of countries over the 1925–2014 period.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Alberto Alesina","Paola Giuliano","Bryony Reich"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab001","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e0fccca248f07626","title":"The non-linear trade-off between return and risk and its determinants","abstract":"We estimate a discrete approximation of the risk-return trade-off for the US market by using the whole universe of stocks from July 1963 to September 2017. We find the relationship between return and total risk to be time-varying and also dependent on the level of risk considered. The proposed positive trade-off is mainly observed during low volatility periods and when we move from low risk up to medium-high risk investments. However, the direction of the trade-off is inverted for the highest risk alternatives especially during high volatility periods. The temporal variation of the risk-return trade-off can be explained by a series of sentiment, macro, credit risk, liquidity and corporate variables. All these determinants suggest that the positive relationship between return and risk is more evident during periods where economic, financial and market conditions improve.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["John Cotter","Enrique Salvador"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.03.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e0ff358f2385239e","title":"Parenthood and gender inequality: Population-based evidence on the child penalty in Finland","abstract":"This study presents evidence on the effect of parenthood on labor market outcomes in Finland. We use population-based data drawn from administrative registers and an event study design centered around the birth of the first child using the specification proposed in Kleven et al. (2019b). The study confirms that women encounter large short- and long-term child penalties in gross labor earnings and that penalties are associated with employment participation. Taxes and social security transfers considerably reduce the child penalty, which also varies by the number of children.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Antti Sieppi","Jaakko Pehkonen"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.05.034","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e1005f21c321477e","title":"Multinational Firms and Tax Havens","abstract":"Multinational firms with operations in high-tax countries can benefit the most from reallocating taxable income to tax havens, though this is sufficiently difficult and costly that only 20.4% of German multinational firms have any tax haven affiliates. Among German manufacturing firms, a 1 percentage point higher foreign tax rate is associated with a 2.3% greater likelihood of owning a tax haven affiliate. This is consistent with tax avoidance incentives and contrasts with earlier evidence for U.S. firms. The relationship is less strong for firms in service industries, possibly reflecting the difficulty of reallocating taxable service income.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Anna Gumpert","James R. Hines","Monika Schnitzer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00591","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e115a1bed26c3e19","title":"Protecting the ego: Motivated information selection and updating","abstract":"We investigate whether individuals self-select feedback that allows them to maintain their motivated beliefs. In our lab experiment, subjects can choose the information structure that gives them feedback regarding their rank in the IQ distribution (ego-relevant treatment) or regarding a random number (control). Although beliefs are incentivized, individuals are less likely to select the most informative feedback in the ego-relevant treatment. Instead, many individuals select information structures in which negative feedback is less salient. When receiving negative feedback with lower salience subjects update their beliefs less, but only in the ego-relevant treatment and not in the control. Hence, our results suggest that individuals sort themselves into information structures that allow them to misinterpret negative feedback in a self-serving way. Consequently, subjects in the IQ treatment remain on average overconfident despite receiving feedback.","wordCount":132,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Alessandro Castagnetti","Renke Schmacker"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.104007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e11cc178ec1bcb6e","title":"Sufficiency: A systematic literature review","abstract":"The making of sustainable economies calls for sufficiency in production and consumption. The discussion, however, lacks a shared understanding on what it means to operationalize sufficiency. In this article, we review and analyze the concept of sufficiency with a focus on its linkages to different economic scales (with a focus on micro- and macroeconomics) and economic actors (particularly consumers and producers). Altogether 307 articles were screened, resulting in a final data set of 94 peer-reviewed articles. In addition to the core assumption of ‘enoughness’, we found three premises describing the concept: (1) complementarity of capitals, (2) social metabolism, and (3) altruism. In the reviewed literature, sufficiency is understood as both an end in itself and a means for bringing consumption and production within ecological limits. By conducting the first systematic literature review on sufficiency, the study explicates a more integrated understanding of sufficiency and highlights the need to treat sufficiency across economic scales and actors. In future research, empirical work should be emphasized to grasp the contextual varieties in the operationalization of sufficiency.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Jessica Jungell-Michelsson","Pasi Heikkurinen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107380","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e1388e5dc4c378f5","title":"Fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency: Do natural disasters matter?","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of fiscal decentralization on public sector efficiency, emphasizing the mediating role of natural disasters, a relevant question in a context of scarce fiscal resources. We analyze data from 36 OECD countries between 2006 and 2019, employing Data Envelopment Analysis to compute efficiency scores and using panel data alongside impulse response methods to estimate the effects of decentralization. Our findings indicate that while tax revenue decentralization generally diminishes public sector efficiency, spending decentralization and higher regional authority indices enhance it. However, in the context of severe natural disasters, these relationships alter: spending decentralization's positive effect on efficiency diminishes, and the adverse impact of tax revenue decentralization intensifies. These results underline the complex dynamics between fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency, particularly in the face of extreme natural events, indicating that decentralized fiscal responses are less effective during such crises.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["António Afonso","João Tovar Jalles","Ana Venâncio"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106763","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e13e11ca23f010f6","title":"Career concerns with exponential learning","abstract":"This paper examines the interplay between career concerns and market structure. Ability and effort are complements: effort increases the probability that a skilled agent achieves a one-time breakthrough. Wages are based on assessed ability and on expected output. Effort levels at different times are strategic substitutes and, as a result, the unique equilibrium effort and wage paths are single-peaked with seniority. Moreover, for any wage profile, the agent works too little, too late. Commitment to wages by competing firms mitigates these inefficiencies. In that case, the optimal contract features piecewise constant wages and severance pay.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Alessandro Bonatti","Johannes Hörner"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2115","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-e1556bb46d8efcc1","title":"Review: Effectiveness and policy implications of health taxes on foods high in fat, salt, and sugar","abstract":"Taxation on food and non-alcoholic beverages are increasingly employed to promote healthier diets and combat the escalating rates of obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases. While sugar-sweetened beverages have been the primary focus of such taxes, taxation of high-fat, salt, or sugar (HFSS) foods, and the impact of such taxes are less clear. We conducted a systematic literature review and assessment of the evidence gathered from 20 studies on the impacts of health taxes on HFSS foods around the world. We focused on impacts on sales and consumption of taxed foods, on health outcomes, and on possible unintended consequences (e.g., substitution towards unhealthier products, job losses, ripple effects on businesses, and potential economic burden on lower-income consumers). We found evidence of decreasing sales, or purchases, and intakes of taxed HFSS foods, especially when taxes were combined with subsidies on healthy foods. Higher tax rates were more effective in reducing purchases or consumption. Tax effects differed by income level, with the lowest-income groups being most responsive. In experimental studies, combining taxes and subsidies contributed to mitigating regressive financial impacts of taxes.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Elisa Pineda","Mathilde Gressier","Danying Li","Todd Brown","Sarah Mounsey","Jack Olney","Franco Sassi"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102599","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-e15e5388ef181d9d","title":"Capital controls, macroprudential regulation, and the bank balance sheet channel","abstract":"We incorporate a banking sector with balance sheet frictions into a model of a small open economy and compare the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential regulation. We show that the welfare-improving effect of capital controls is larger than that of macroprudential regulation if the degree of financial friction between domestic banks and foreign investors is high, while the welfare-improving effect of macroprudential regulation is larger than that of capital controls if the degree of financial friction is low. We also show that the welfare ranking of the two policies depends on whether an economy suffers from liability dollarization.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Shigeto Kitano","Kenya Takaku"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103161","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e160ef49821fd686","title":"Finance, climate-change and radical uncertainty: Towards a precautionary approach to financial policy","abstract":"Climate-related financial risks (CRFR) are now recognised by central banks and supervisors as material to their financial stability mandates. But while CRFR are considered to have some unique characteristics, the emerging policy framework for dealing with them has largely focused on market-based solutions that seek to reduce perceived information gaps that prevent the accurate pricing of CRFR. These include disclosure, transparency, scenario analysis and stress testing. We argue this approach will be limited in impact because CRFR are characterised by radical uncertainty and hence ‘efficient’ price discovery is not possible. In addition, this approach tends to bias financial policy towards concern around avoiding short-term market disruption at the expense of longer-term, potentially catastrophic and irreversible climate risks. Instead, an alternative ‘precautionary’ financial policy approach is proposed that offers an intellectual framework for legitimizing more ambitious financial policy interventions in the present to better deal with these long-term risks. This framework draws on two existing concepts — the ‘precautionary principle’ and modern macroprudential policy — and justifies the full integration of CRFR into financial policy, including prudential, macroprudential and monetary policy frameworks.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Hugues Chenet","Josh Ryan‐Collins","Frank van Lerven"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106957","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e1640acc62aae1d8","title":"Dealer Networks","abstract":"Dealers in the over‐the‐counter municipal bond market form trading networks with other dealers to mitigate search frictions. Regulatory data show that this network has a core‐periphery structure with 10 to 30 hubs and over 2,000 peripheral broker‐dealers in which bonds flow from periphery to core and partially back. Central dealers charge investors up to double the round‐trip markups compared to peripheral dealers. In turn, central dealers provide immediacy by matching buyers with sellers more directly and prearranging fewer trades, especially during stress times. Investors thus face a trade‐off between execution cost and speed, consistent with network models of decentralized trade.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["DAN LI","Norman Schürhoff"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12728","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e16663dcf29f838f","title":"Inventories, input costs, and productivity gains from trade liberalizations","abstract":"Sourcing internationally allows firms to access cheaper or better inputs but increases logistical costs, particularly through higher inventory holdings. This article examines the productivity gains from trade liberalizations accounting for inventory costs—typically omitted from revenue‐based measures of productivity. In model simulations, we show that omitting these overestimates the effect of input tariffs on productivity and that controlling for inventories in the estimation of productivity corrects the bias. We document these facts during India's 1990s reforms. First, firms' inventories increase strongly with imports. Second, productivity gains drop by 20–50% once inventory costs are accounted for.","wordCount":94,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Shafaat Yar Khan","Armen Khederlarian"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12731","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e1668aa3a4b49cda","title":"Punishment to promote prosocial behavior: a field experiment","abstract":"Prosocial behavior is typically promoted through behavioral interventions or modest rewards. We provide field evidence for the effectiveness of a less commonly used way to achieve the same goal: making it illegal not to engage in the desired behavior and then enforcing that rule. We partnered with a city to conduct a natural field experiment aimed at increasing the rate at which 70,000 households separate their waste. Households were informed that it was illegal not to separate their waste and that they could be fined. The announcement was followed by a month of intensive and highly conspicuous inspections of the contents of garbage containers set out for emptying. The treatment had a large and immediate positive effect on waste separation. Unlike the effects of crackdowns in typical applications such as traffic enforcement, the behavioral effect persisted at a stable rate for many months. This divergent result is consistent with a change in habits, a previously unexplored way in which law enforcement crackdowns can have a lasting effect. If habits sustain the new behavior, then this also alleviates concerns about loss of intrinsic motivation.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Ben Vollaard","Daan van Soest"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102899","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e16cecf6e53ec421","title":"A Markov Switching Factor‐Augmented VAR Model for Analyzing US Business Cycles and Monetary Policy","abstract":"This paper develops a Markov switching factor‐augmented vector autoregression to investigate the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy for distinct stages of the US business cycle. We assume that autoregressive parameters and covariance matrices of the error terms are regime dependent, driven by an unobserved Markov indicator. Endogenously determined transition probabilities are governed by an underlying probit model that features a large set of possible predictors. The empirical findings provide evidence for differences in the transmission of monetary policy shocks that mainly stem from heterogeneity in the responses of financial market quantities.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Florian Huber","Manfréd M. Fischer"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12227","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e173144572b23f48","title":"Regulating a monopolist with uncertain costs without transfers","abstract":"We analyze the Baron and Myerson (1982) model of regulation under the restriction that transfers are infeasible. Extending techniques from the delegation literature to incorporate an ex post participation constraint, we report sufficient conditions under which optimal regulation takes the form of price‐cap regulation. We establish conditions under which the optimal price cap is set at a level such that no types are excluded and show that exclusion of higher cost types can be optimal when these conditions fail. We also provide conditions for the optimality of price‐cap regulation when an ex post participation constraint is present and exclusion is infeasible.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Manuel Amador","Kyle Bagwell"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4691","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-e17fac96ea6ba23d","title":"Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure","abstract":"Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of US politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 US presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains, meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views, and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.","wordCount":241,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["David Autor","David Dorn","Gordon Hanson","Kaveh Majlesi"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170011","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e18e453779f99911","title":"(Not so) gently down the stream: River pollution and health in Indonesia","abstract":"Waterborne diseases, often arising from freshwater pollution, are a leading cause of mortality in developing countries. However, data limitations inhibit our understanding of the extent of damage arising from freshwater pollution. We employ a novel hydrological approach combined with village census data to study the effect of upstream polluting behavior on downstream health in Indonesia. We find that upstream use of rivers for bathing and associated sanitary practices can explain as many as 7.5% of all diarrhea-related deaths annually. We also find suggestive evidence for differential avoidance behavior in response to different pollutants. Our approach relies on publicly available satellite data, open source hydrological models, and coarse village census data allowing us to estimate health externalities from river pollution in particularly vulnerable and data poor environments.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Teevrat Garg","Stuart Hamilton","Jacob Hochard","Evan Plous Kresch","John Talbot"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.08.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e19d9e9ed050f511","title":"Stereotypes","abstract":"We present a model of stereotypes based on Kahneman and Tversky’s representativeness heuristic. A decision maker assesses a target group by overweighting its representative types, defined as the types that occur more frequently in that group than in a baseline reference group. Stereotypes formed this way contain a “kernel of truth”: they are rooted in true differences between groups. Because stereotypes focus on differences, they cause belief distortions, particularly when groups are similar. Stereotypes are also context dependent: beliefs about a group depend on the characteristics of the reference group. In line with our predictions, beliefs in the lab about abstract groups and beliefs in the field about political groups are context dependent and distorted in the direction of representative types.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Pedro Bordalo","Katherine Coffman","Nicola Gennaioli","Andrei Shleifer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw029","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e19dc4c84c3ee41c","title":"Building trust: The costs and benefits of gradualism","abstract":"We examine the prevalence of gradualist strategies and their effect on trust-building and economic gains in a setting with an infinite horizon, asymmetric information regarding the trustworthiness of receivers, and various levels of trust. The theoretical literature suggests that gradualist strategies mitigate asymmetric information problems and foster trust-building. However, we theoretically and experimentally show that gradualism sometimes reduces joint payoffs relative to a simple “binary” setting in which trust is an all-or-nothing decision. In a series of experiments, we vary the degree of asymmetric information as well as the economic returns to trusting behavior, and delineate circumstances under which gradualism may promote or curb efficiency.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Melis Kartal","Wieland Müller","James Tremewan"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.07.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e1a28864633841a6","title":"The impact of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on annuity and saving choices","abstract":"We analyze the impact of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on the competing demands for annuities and bequeathable savings using a lifecycle recursive utility model. Our main finding is that risk aversion and ambiguity aversion have similar effects: an increase in either of the two reduces annuity demand and enhances bond holdings. We obtain this unequivocal result in the flexible intertemporal framework of Hayashi and Miao (2011) by assuming that the agent’s preferences are monotone with respect to first-order stochastic dominance. Our contribution is then twofold. First, from a decision-theoretic point of view, we show that monotonicity allows one to obtain clear-cut results about the respective roles of risk and ambiguity aversion. Second, from the insurance point of view, our result that the demand for annuities decreases with risk and ambiguity aversion stands in contrast with what is usually found with other insurance products. As such, it may help explain the low annuitization level observed in the data.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Eric André","Antoine Bommier","François Le Grand"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09386-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e1a411ff742d3ffe","title":"Bias in Cable News: Persuasion and Polarization","abstract":"We measure the persuasive effects of slanted news and tastes for like-minded news, exploiting cable channel positions as exogenous shifters of cable news viewership. Channel positions do not correlate with demographics that predict viewership and voting, nor with local satellite viewership. We estimate that Fox News increases Republican vote shares by 0.3 points among viewers induced into watching 2.5 additional minutes per week by variation in position. We then estimate a model of voters who select into watching slanted news, and whose ideologies evolve as a result. We use the model to assess the growth over time of Fox News influence, to quantitatively assess media-driven polarization, and to simulate alternative ideological slanting of news channels.","wordCount":115,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Gregory Martin","Ali Yürükoğlu"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160812","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e1b11242f2df119e","title":"Education, health, and economic development","abstract":"This paper examines the relationships of income with education and health using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to account for the potential cross-country heterogeneity in the effects of education and health. Our main results are: (i) education and health are, on average, income-enhancing; (ii) for different schooling levels, although primary education lowers income, both secondary and tertiary education raise income with larger impacts for the former than the latter, on average; (iii) there is considerable heterogeneity in the effects of education and health on income across countries; and (iv) the effect of education (health) on income tends to be greater (smaller) in countries with higher levels of development, greater (less) trade openness, less abundant natural resources, less corruption, higher levels of democracy, and a more homogeneous society.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Dong‐Hyeon Kim","Yi-Chen Wu","Shu‐Chin Lin"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517000050","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e1b3b6df21695bd9","title":"Skill of the immigrants and vote of the natives: Immigration and nationalism in European elections 2007–2016","abstract":"We analyze the impact of local immigration on natives’ preferences for “nationalism” as measured in parties’ programs by the Manifesto Project Database in European election data between 2007 and 2016. Using a 2SLS strategy with a shift-share IV based on immigrant shares by origin in 2005 and inflows by education-origin groups, we estimate that larger inflows of highly-educated immigrants were associated with a decrease in the “nationalistic” vote of natives, while less-educated immigrants produced an opposite-direction shift towards nationalistic parties. The aggregate results derive from individual shifts toward nationalism in response to less-skilled immigration, and from greater participation of young voters and more pro-European attitudes in response to high-skilled immigration.","wordCount":110,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Simone Moriconi","Giovanni Peri","Riccardo Turati"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103986","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e1d0e439306b8d9f","title":"Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara","abstract":"To estimate the effects of weather conditions on welfare globally, cross-country comparisons need to rely on international poverty lines and comparable data sources at the micro-level. To this end, nationally representative household surveys can offer a useful instrument, also at the sub-national level. This study seeks to expand the existing knowledge on the determinants of poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), examining how long-term climatic conditions and year-specific weather shocks affect expenditure per capita. We take advantage of a novel and unique dataset combining consumption-based household surveys for 24 SSA countries -representative of more than half of the African population and two thirds of SSA- and geospatial information on agro-climatic conditions, market access and other spatial covariates of poverty. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a welfare-based, multidisciplinary, micro-level dataset with such wide spatial coverage has been assembled and examined. Our analysis relies on a linear and spatial model at the household- and district-level, respectively, both controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and geographic confounding factors. Results are consistent across econometric approaches, showing that living in more humid areas is positively associated with welfare, while the opposite occurs living in hotter areas, as existing literature shows. Flood shocks -defined as annual rainfall higher than one standard deviation from the 50-year average- are associated to a 35% decrease in total and food per-capita consumption and 17 percentage point increase in extreme poverty. On the other hand, extreme shortages of rain and heat shocks show an uncertain effect, even when estimates control for spatial correlation between welfare and weather conditions using the spatial error correction model. Given the heterogeneous effects of climatic events across SSA macro-regions, local-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies are suggested to help bringing households on a sustainable path.","wordCount":292,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Carlo Azzarri","Sara Signorelli"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104691","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e1d1138da8380e7b","title":"Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles","abstract":"Entrepreneurship, growth and total factor productivity are larger when asset prices are high and decline during financial crises. We explain these facts using a growth model with financial bubbles in which individuals have heterogeneous wages and returns on productive investment. Heterogeneity separates individuals between savers and entrepreneurs. Savers buy financial assets, which are deposits or a financial bubble. Entrepreneurs incur in a start-up cost and borrow to invest in productive capital. The bubble provides liquidities to credit-constrained entrepreneurs. These liquidities increase investment, growth and entrepreneurship. Finally, the bubble may increase productivity when the return of each entrepreneur’s investment is positively correlated with her previous income.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard","Xavier Raurich","Thomas Seegmuller"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103622","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e1d87a5a1d742784","title":"The History of the Cross-Section of Stock Returns","abstract":"Using data spanning the twentieth century, we show that the majority of accounting-based return anomalies, including investment, are most likely an artifact of data snooping. When examined out-of-sample by moving either backward or forward in time, the average returns and Sharpe ratios of most anomalies decrease, whereas their volatilities and correlations with other anomalies increase. The few anomalies that do persist out-of-sample correlate with the shift from investment in physical capital to intangible capital and the increasing reliance on debt financing over the twentieth century.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Juhani T. Linnainmaa","Michael R. Roberts"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy030","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e1d9bf2b7dd96def","title":"Household Debt and Risk Tolerance: Evidence From China","abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between the head of household's risk tolerance and household debt in China for a sample drawn from the China Household Finance Survey, 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017. The effect of risk tolerance on both the decision to hold and the amount of total household debt, housing debt and non‐housing debt held is analyzed. The key findings indicate that risk tolerance is positively associated with household debt and non‐housing debt. Differences are found in the effect of risk tolerance on household debt across rural and urban households. For example, there exists a positive relationship between risk tolerance and the probability of holding housing debt for rural households while such a relationship is not found for urban households. In addition, the effect of risk tolerance on household debt is larger for rural households.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Jialong Li"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12655","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e1d9e2931d4667b6","title":"The prospective associations between financial scarcity and financial avoidance","abstract":"The current study investigated the prospective associations between financial scarcity and financial avoidance. We hypothesized that over time, financial scarcity––the experience of lacking needed financial resources––is associated with an increase in financial avoidance––the tendency to avoid dealing with one’s finances––, and vice versa. In a longitudinal panel study, including a large and representative adult sample of Dutch citizens (initial N = 1,122, final N = 837), we measured financial scarcity and financial avoidance twice over a period of 22 months. Data were analyzed using a cross-lagged panel model, which allows to test for prospective effects of one variable on the other, while controlling for autoregressive effects. Confirming our preregistered hypotheses, results showed that financial scarcity was positively related with an increase in subsequent financial avoidance, whereas financial avoidance was positively related with an increase in subsequent financial scarcity. While these longitudinal findings are not causal, they are in line with the concept of a poverty trap, where financial scarcity and financial avoidance form a temporally dynamic and increasing relationship.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Leon P. Hilbert","Marret K. Noordewier","W. van Dijk"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102459","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e1e0e249ecd9bfbb","title":"Child care in the united states: Markets, policy, and evidence","abstract":"Participation in non‐parental child care arrangements is now the norm for preschool‐age children in the U.S. However, child care services are becoming increasingly expensive for many families, and quality is highly uneven across providers and sectors, raising questions about the impact of child care costs and quality on parental employment and child development. The U.S. policy landscape is dominated by three policies that subsidize costs for low‐income families or attempt to improve the safety and quality of providers: the Child Care and Development Fund, regulations, and quality rating and improvement systems. In this paper, I provide a thorough review of the evidence on each policy, focusing on how they influence a wide range of family and provider outcomes. The paper begins with a detailed description of the structure and functioning of the child care market, using the most up‐to‐date data on families’ utilization of care services and provider characteristics. I then draw on a diverse set of studies across multiple fields to summarize the evidence on the impact of child care policy. In the final section of the paper, I offer recommendations for future research in each policy area.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Chris M. Herbst"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22436","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e1f802e0dbd322f9","title":"The Making of a Manager: Evidence from Military Officer Training","abstract":"We show that officer training during the Swedish military service has a strong positive effect on the probability of attaining a managerial position later in life. The most intense type of officer training increases the probability of becoming a civilian manager by about 5 percentage points, or 75%. Officer training also increases educational attainment post–military service. We argue that the effect on civilian leadership could be due to the acquisition of leadership-specific skills during the military service, and we present suggestive evidence related to alternative mechanisms, such as signaling, networks, and training unrelated to leadership.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Erik Grönqvist","Erik Lindqvist"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686255","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e1fdd76dee1ad93f","title":"Urbanization and mortality in Britain, c. 1800–50","abstract":"In the long‐running debate over standards of living during the industrial revolution, pessimists have identified deteriorating health conditions in towns as undermining the positive effects of rising real incomes on the ‘biological standard of living’. This article reviews long‐run historical relationships between urbanization and epidemiological trends in England, and then addresses the specific question: did mortality rise especially in rapidly growing industrial and manufacturing towns in the period c . 1830–50? Using comparative data for British, European, and American cities and selected rural populations, this study finds good evidence for widespread increases in mortality in the second quarter of the nineteenth century. However, this phenomenon was not confined to ‘new’ or industrial towns. Instead, mortality rose in the 1830s especially among young children (aged one to four years) in a wide range of populations and environments. This pattern of heightened mortality extended between c . 1830 and c . 1870, and coincided with a well‐established rise and decline in scarlet fever virulence and mortality. The evidence presented here therefore supports claims that mortality worsened for young children in the middle decades of the nineteenth century, but also indicates that this phenomenon was more geographically ubiquitous, less severe, and less chronologically concentrated than previously argued.","wordCount":204,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Romola Davenport"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12964","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e1ff9688d9573ce5","title":"Economics without ecology: How the SDGs fail to align socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability","abstract":"Science is increasingly warning that the Earth, as a result of human activity, is currently on a trajectory towards environmental collapse. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by UN member states in 2015 as a means to reconcile human activity with planetary boundaries, allowing humanity to thrive while safeguarding Earth's life support. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the SDGs so far have lived up to their promise. Using Eurostat's SDG indicator set, the study calculates temporal progress measures of socioeconomic development and environmental sustainability for the European Union (EU) member states. To validate the findings, the two progress measures are compared with changes in the human development index (HDI) and the ecological footprint (EF). The study's results show that over the past five years of available data, most EU member states have seen socioeconomic progress combined with environmental degradation. The trends in the HDI and the EF corroborate this finding, suggesting that the trade-off between socioeconomic activity and environmental preservation continues to exist. SDG implementation should consequently put a stronger focus on the environmental dimension, to ensure that the pursuit of the 2030 Agenda's socioeconomic objectives does not undermine the ecosystem services humanity depends on.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Markus Hametner"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107490","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e21655d3eb586404","title":"I only fear when I hear: How media affects insider trading in takeover targets","abstract":"We study how target firm insiders respond to Wall Street Journal articles referring to illegal insider trading in past mergers. Such articles lead to target insider share purchases before bid announcement to drop by 75%. This effect is stronger nearer the bid announcement and increases with article visibility. It remains significant after controlling for public enforcement intensity, but is weakened by the greater potential for profitable trading. Our results suggest insider trading articles temporarily heighten the perception of litigation and reputation risks. Overall, our study indicates that such articles have a meaningful short-term deterrence effect on opportunistic insider trading, and highlights the disciplinary role of the media.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Mark Aleksanyan","Jo Danbolt","Antonios Siganos","Betty H.T. Wu"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.04.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e2237a9cbfcf95ce","title":"Pricing carbon risk: Investor preferences or risk mitigation?","abstract":"Do banks charge an environmental premium when lending to publicly listed firms? Using a unique and comprehensive database on carbon emissions, we find that higher carbon emissions are associated with higher loan spreads. This effect exists for loans arranged by all lenders suggesting that spread premia are driven by environmental risks rather than investor preferences. Consistent with ex-post risk, companies without appropriate board-level responsibility pay higher spreads. While countries might introduce effective legislation to mitigate the effects of climate change, our results indicate that there is scope for a market-based solution to complement explicit environmental regulation.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Stefanie Kleimeier","Michael Viehs"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109936","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e22b0bf7dfaa6ed9","title":"The impact of stress on tournament entry","abstract":"Individual willingness to enter competitive environments predicts career choices and labor market outcomes. Meanwhile, many people experience competitive contexts as stressful. We use two laboratory experiments to investigate whether factors related to stress can help explain individual differences in tournament entry. Experiment 1 studies whether stress responses (measured as salivary cortisol) to taking part in a mandatory tournament predict individual willingness to participate in a voluntary tournament. We find that competing increases stress levels. This cortisol response does not predict tournament entry for men but is positively and significantly correlated with choosing to enter the tournament for women. In Experiment 2, we exogenously induce physiological stress using the cold-pressor task. We find a positive causal effect of stress on tournament entry for women but no effect for men. Finally, we show that although the effect of stress on tournament entry differs between the genders, stress reactions cannot explain the well-documented gender difference in willingness to compete.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Thomas Buser","Anna Dreber","Johanna Möllerström"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9496-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e22c245245747d23","title":"The Global Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade1","abstract":"We explore the role of natural characteristics in determining the worldwide spatial distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, observed across 240,000 grid cells. A parsimonious set of 24 physical geography attributes explains 47% of worldwide variation and 35% of within-country variation in lights. We divide geographic characteristics into two groups, those primarily important for agriculture and those primarily important for trade, and confront a puzzle. In examining within-country variation in lights, among countries that developed early, agricultural variables incrementally explain over 6 times as much variation in lights as do trade variables, while among late developing countries the ratio is only about 1.5, even though the latter group is far more dependent on agriculture. Correspondingly, the marginal effects of agricultural variables as a group on lights are larger in absolute value, and those for trade smaller, for early developers than for late developers. We show that this apparent puzzle is explained by persistence and the differential timing of technological shocks in the two sets of countries. For early developers, structural transformation due to rising agricultural productivity began when transport costs were still high, so cities were localized in agricultural regions. When transport costs fell, these agglomerations persisted. In late-developing countries, transport costs fell before structural transformation. To exploit urban scale economies, manufacturing agglomerated in relatively few, often coastal, locations. Consistent with this explanation, countries that developed earlier are more spatially equal in their distribution of education and economic activity than late developers.","wordCount":246,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["J. Vernon Henderson","Tim Squires","Adam Storeygard","David Weil"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx030","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e22f59abb04c6686","title":"Do regional emission trading schemes lead to carbon leakage within firms? Evidence from Japan","abstract":"We use facility-level panel data on CO2 emissions to investigate within-firm carbon leakage associated with Japanese regional emission trading systems (ETSs) at large-scale facilities in Tokyo and Saitama prefectures. A difference-in-difference analysis reveals that, relative to entities with no facility under ETSs, entities with regulated facilities have reduced emissions not only from these regulated facilities but also from unregulated facilities outside Tokyo/Saitama. This result indicates that regional ETSs serve as a turning point for entities to bridge the energy-efficiency gap. The data also suggest that a larger entity is more capable of reducing emissions from facilities in regions with less stringent regulations.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Taisuke Sadayuki","Toshi H. Arimura"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105664","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e2342692918223f3","title":"Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and “Normal” Economic Times","abstract":"Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Michael Greenstone","Alexandre Mas","Hoai-Luu Nguyen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e2501a1713d5f12e","title":"Socioeconomic status and access to mental health care: The case of psychiatric medications for children in Ontario Canada","abstract":"We examine differences in the prescribing of psychiatric medications to lower-income and higher-income children in the Canadian province of Ontario using rich administrative data that includes diagnosis codes and physician identifiers. Our most striking finding is that conditional on diagnosis and medical history, low-income children are more likely to be prescribed antipsychotics and benzodiazepines than higher-income children who see the same doctors. These are drugs with potentially dangerous side effects that ideally should be prescribed to children only under narrowly proscribed circumstances. Lower-income children are also less likely to be prescribed SSRIs, the first-line treatment for depression and anxiety conditional on diagnosis. Hence, socioeconomic differences in the prescribing of psychotropic medications to children persist even in the context of universal public health insurance and universal drug coverage.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Janet Currie","Paul Kurdyak","Jonathan Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102841","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e25157725aaf13ea","title":"Heterogeneity and the public sector wage policy","abstract":"A model with search and matching frictions and heterogeneous workers was established to evaluate a reform of the public sector wage policy in steady state. The model was calibrated to the U.K. economy based on Labour Force Survey data. A review of the pay received by all public sector workers to align the distribution of wages with the private sector reduces steady‐state unemployment by 1.4 percentage points.","wordCount":67,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Pedro Gomes"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12310","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e278374af08ed802","title":"Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?","abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value‐added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue‐neutral reductions in income‐related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Nico Pestel","Eric Sommer"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12232","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e27c2e1d60a90fc5","title":"Productivity growth and business model innovation","abstract":"Organizational factors have been identified as a possible explanation for total factor productivity and hence the Solow paradox. We posit that business model innovation is a major organizational factor. However, there has not been any systematic study on how business model innovation affects productivity growth rates. We introduce a novel approach of measuring business model innovation using change in the net asset turnover ratio. The study shows that business model innovation contributes significantly to productivity growth across firms in the UK between 2003 and 2017. The study provides empirical support that business model innovation could partially explain the Solow productivity paradox.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Wit Wannakrairoj","Chander Velu"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109679","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e28aa8a3c8430d5a","title":"How does artificial intelligence promote renewable energy development? The role of climate finance","abstract":"Scholars, stakeholders, and the government have given significant attention to the development of renewable energy in recent times. However, previous research has failed to acknowledge the potential impact of artificial intelligence on advancing renewable energy development. Drawing insights from a global dataset encompassing 63 countries over the period 2000–2019, this paper provides significant observations regarding the influence of artificial intelligence on the progress of renewable energy, by using the Instrumental Variable Generalized Method of Moments model. We also explore their asymmetric nexus, and the potential mediation effect. Moreover, this study explores the moderating role of climate finance and highlights the following interesting findings. First, artificial intelligence contributes significantly to the enhanced development of renewable energy, and this primary finding holds after two robustness tests of changing independent and dependent variables. Second, artificial intelligence has an asymmetric effect on renewable energy development, and their nexus is closer in countries with lower levels of renewable energy development. Thid, artificial intelligence works on renewable energy development through technology effect and innovation effect. Fourth, climate finance also presents direct benefits to renewable energy development; simultaneously, climate finance plays an effective moderating role in the relationship between artificial intelligence and renewable energy development. These findings inspire us to propose policy implications to promote the enhanced development of renewable energy.","wordCount":214,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Congyu Zhao","Kangyin Dong","Kun Wang","Rabindra Nepal"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107493","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e28f98ebd6b8b021","title":"Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe","abstract":"The literature on the growth effects of European integration remains inconclusive. This is due to severe methodological difficulties mostly driven by country heterogeneity. This paper addresses these concerns using the synthetic control method. It constructs counterfactuals for countries that joined the European Union (EU) from 1973 to 2004. We find that growth effects from EU membership are large and positive, with Greece as the exception. Despite substantial variation across countries and over time, we estimate that without European integration, per capita incomes would have been, on average, approximately 10% lower in the first ten years after joining the EU.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Nauro F. Campos","Fabrizio Coricelli","Luigi Moretti"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.08.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e295fe543f768115","title":"Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders: Evidence from High-Frequency Claims Data","abstract":"We use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of stay-at-home (SAH) orders in the United States to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and April 4, only 4 million were attributable to SAH orders. We present a currency union model to provide conditions for mapping this estimate to aggregate employment losses.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["ChaeWon Baek","Peter McCrory","Todd Messer","Preston Mui"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00996","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e2b6ff02a1297860","title":"Information, Misallocation, and Aggregate Productivity","abstract":"We propose a theory linking imperfect information to resource misallocation and hence to aggregate productivity and output. In our setup, firms look to a variety of noisy information sources when making input decisions. We devise a novel empirical strategy that uses a combination of firm-level production and stock market data to pin down the information structure in the economy. Even when only capital is chosen under imperfect information, applying this methodology to data from the United States, China, and India reveals substantial losses in productivity and output due to the informational friction. Our estimates for these losses range from 7% to 10% for productivity and 10% to 14% for output in China and India, and are smaller, though still significant, in the United States. Losses are substantially higher when labor decisions are also made under imperfect information. We find that firms turn primarily to internal sources for information; learning from financial markets contributes little, even in the United States.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Joel M. David","Hugo A. Hopenhayn","Venky Venkateswaran"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw006","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e2ba5e3928f29798","title":"Time-varying pricing may increase total electricity consumption: Evidence from Costa Rica","abstract":"We study the implementation of a time-varying pricing (TVP) program by a major electricity utility in Costa Rica. Because of particular features of the data, we use recently developed understanding of the two-way fixed effects differences-in-differences estimator along with event-study specifications to interpret our results. Similar to previous research, we find that the program reduces consumption during peak-hours. However, in contrast with previous research, we find that the program increases total consumption. With a stylized economic model, we show how these seemingly conflicted results may not be at odds. The key element of the model is that previous research used data from rich countries, in which the use of heating and cooling devices drives electricity consumption, but we use data from a tropical middle-income country, where very few households have heating or cooling devices. Since there is not much room for technological changes (which might reduce consumption at all times), behavioral changes to reduce consumption during peak hours are not enough to offset the increased consumption during off-peak hours (when electricity is cheaper). Our results serve as a cautionary piece of evidence for policy makers interested in reducing consumption during peak hours—the goal can potentially be achieved with TVP, but the cost is increased total consumption","wordCount":206,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Tabaré Capitán","Francisco Alpízar","Róger Madrigal","Subhrendu K. Pattanayak"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101264","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e2cc5a72e7159131","title":"Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter","abstract":"The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces estimates of the output gap that are strongly at odds with widely held beliefs about transitory movements in economic activity. This is due to parameter estimates implying a high signal-to-noise ratio in terms of the variance of trend shocks as a fraction of the overall forecast error variance. When we impose a lower signal-to-noise ratio, the resulting Beveridge-Nelson filter produces a more intuitive estimate of the output gap that is large in amplitude and highly persistent, and it typically increases in expansions and decreases in recessions. Notably, our approach is also reliable in the sense of being subject to smaller revisions and predicting future output growth and inflation better than other trend-cycle decompositions that impose a low signal-to-noise ratio.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Güneş Kamber","James Morley","Benjamin Wong"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00691","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e2d62b315c52a058","title":"Institutional dual ownership and voluntary greenhouse gas emission disclosure","abstract":"This paper shows evidence of a positive relationship between institutional dual holders, who hold both equity and debt in a firm, and voluntary greenhouse gas (GHG) emission disclosure. Considering dual holders as particularly risk-sensitive institutional investors, we document that improvements in voluntary GHG emission disclosure are motivated by climate-conscious and risk-related considerations. The positive effect of institutional dual ownership is more pronounced in firms facing significant environmental risks, where disclosure enables clearer explanations and prevents exaggerated stakeholder reactions. The impact of dual ownership is also stronger in firms with poor information environments, where dual holders exploit their enhanced monitoring capacity through gathering information from both their public equity and private debt holdings. Consistent with our risk-based explanation, voluntary GHG emission disclosure reduces the cost of equity and increases firm valuation in firms with higher dual ownership.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Johannes A. Barg","Wolfgang Drobetz","Sadok El Ghoul","Omrane Guedhami","Henning Schröder"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102671","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e2da1fc8a6e301c5","title":"Delegated investment decisions and rankings","abstract":"Two aspects of social context are central to the finance industry. First, financial professionals usually make investment decisions on behalf of third parties. Second, social competition, in the form of performance rankings, is pervasive. Therefore, we investigate professionals’ risk taking behavior under social competition when investing for others. We run online and lab-in-the-field experiments with 805 financial professionals and show that professionals increase their risk taking for others when they lag behind. Additional survey evidence from 1349 respondents reveals that professionals’ preferences for high rankings are significantly stronger than those of the general population.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Michael Kirchler","Florian Lindner","Utz Weitzel"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105952","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e2e74f1ca80200d0","title":"Entering a gender-neutral workplace? College students’ expectations and the impact of information provision","abstract":"This paper explores whether college students are aware of gender disparities in academic performance and labor market outcomes, and examines the effect of providing information about these gaps. The study uses a lab experiment that includes (i) a questionnaire eliciting beliefs, (ii) a task assignment game where participants act as employers, and (iii) a game measuring willingness to compete. The experiment features two feedback treatments: one providing information only on gender gaps in labor market outcomes, and the other including information on both academic performance and labor market outcomes. In another treatment, the questionnaire was administered without providing new information to make gender salient. Results indicate that most participants are unaware of gender gaps. Feedback treatments did not significantly affect hiring decisions but, making gender salient, positively influenced women’s assignment to the difficult task, particularly among those previously unaware of the gaps, possibly due to social desirability bias. Men with implicit stereotypes were more inclined to compete regardless of treatment, while women with implicit stereotypes competed more after receiving information on the gap in academic performance. Overall, the study suggests that highlighting gender issues and informing women who hold implicit stereotypes can have mild positive effects.","wordCount":196,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Francesca Barigozzi","José J. Domínguez","Natalia Montinari"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102770","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e2f67d6b52b5a42a","title":"Foreseen risks","abstract":"Large crises tend to follow rapid credit expansions. Causality, however, is far from obvious. We show how this pattern arises naturally when financial intermediaries optimally exploit economic rents that drive their franchise value. As this franchise value fluctuates over the business cycle, so too do the incentives to engage in risky lending. The model leads to novel insights on the effects of unconventional monetary policies in developed economies. We argue that bank lending might have responded less than expected to these interventions because they enhanced franchise value, inadvertently encouraging banks to pursue safer investments in low-risk government securities.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["João F. Gomes","Marco Grotteria","Jessica A. Wachter"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105706","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e2f8a3f2581e44ec","title":"Strategic ambiguity and risk in alternating pie-sharing experiments","abstract":"We experimentally study a class of pie-sharing games with alternating roles from a decision-making perspective. For this, we consider a variant of a two-stage alternating-offer game which introduces an imbalance in the protagonists’ bargaining powers. This game class enables us to investigate how exposure to risk and strategic ambiguity affects one’s bargaining behaviour. Two structural econometric models of behaviour, a naïve and a sophisticated one, capture remarkably well the observed deviations from the game-theoretic benchmark. Our findings indicate, in particular, that a higher exposure to strategic ambiguity leads to a behaviour that is less responsive to the game’s parameters and to distorted, yet consistent, beliefs about other’s behaviour. We also find evidence of a backward-reasoning whereby first-stage decisions relate to the second-stage ones but which do not call for the counterfactual reasoning that characterises rationality in such settings.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Anna Conte","Werner Güth","Paul Pezanis‐Christou"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09401-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e30c82670ea27d4a","title":"Bargaining Competition and Vertical Mergers: The Problem of Model Selection","abstract":"The assumptions that distinguish bargaining models from one another are rarely observed, but can predetermine their predictions. In this paper, we map various popular bargaining models into vertical merger predictions across two competitive landscapes that consist of either one upstream firm and two downstream firms, or vice-versa. The models’ assumptions vary with respect to: (i) How parties bargain (Derived Demand versus Nash-in-Nash versus Nash-in-Shapley); and (ii) Over what (linear wholesale prices versus two-part prices versus quantity). The paper and accompanying online vertical merger simulator are designed to help economists and enforcers select the bargaining model that best characterizes observed pre-merger competition, and the loss of such competition following a vertical merger, in a given setting. The paper is designed to supplement the horizontal and vertical merger simulators that have been developed by economists who have served at the Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Willem H. Boshoff","Luke M. Froeb","Wessel Marais","Roan J. Minnie","Steven T. Tschantz"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10009-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e30f84db8d435245","title":"Colonization and education: exploring the legacy of local elites in Korea","abstract":"In this article we examine the impact of pre‐colonial educated elites and colonization on modernization. Using the case of Joseon, as Korea was known before being colonized by Japan in 1910, we investigate how the civil exam system and scholarly traditions, as well as the provision of public schools under Japanese colonial rule, influenced levels of literacy in the colony. We introduce novel data from Joseon's historical court examination archives, colonial education records, and censuses dating back to 1930. Our findings suggest that the spread of Korean literacy during the early colonial period was strongly correlated with the historical presence of civil exam passers from the Joseon Dynasty. Regions with a greater presence of educated elites later had higher numbers of Korean teachers, as well as more private schools established as alternatives to the colonial public schools.","wordCount":137,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Ji Yeon Hong","Christopher Paik"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12538","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e3205e825a14edf7","title":"Decision-makers self-servingly navigate the equality-efficiency trade-off of free partner choice in social dilemmas among unequals","abstract":"Cooperation is more likely upheld when individuals can choose their interaction partner. However, when individuals differ in their endowment or ability to cooperate, free partner choice can lead to segregation and increase inequality. To understand how decision-makers can decrease such inequality, we conducted an incentivized and preregistered experiment in which participants ( n =500) differed in their endowment and cooperation productivity. First, we investigated how these individual differences impacted cooperation and inequality under free partner choice in a public goods game. Next, we calculated if and how decision-makers should restrict partner choice if their goal is to decrease inequality. Finally, we studied whether decision-makers actually did decrease inequality when asked to allocate endowment and productivity factors between individuals, and combine individuals into pairs of interaction partners for a two-player public goods game. Our results show that without interventions, free partner choice, indeed, leads to segregation and increases inequality. To mitigate such inequality, decision-makers should curb free partner choice and force individuals who were assigned different endowments and productivities to form pairs with each other. However, this comes at the cost of lower overall cooperation and earnings, showing that the restriction of partner choice results in an equality-efficiency trade-off. Participants who acted as third-parties were actually more likely to prioritize inequality reduction over efficiency maximization, by forcing individuals with unequal endowment and productivity levels to form pairs with each other. However, decision-makers who had a ‘stake in the game’ self-servingly navigated the equality-efficiency trade-off by preferring partner choice interventions that benefited themselves. These preferences were partly explained by norms on public good cooperation and redistribution, and participants’ social preferences. Results reveal potential conflicts on how to govern free partner choice stemming from diverging preferences ‘among unequals’.","wordCount":285,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Luuk L. Snijder","Mirre Stallen","Jörg Gross"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102758","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e321a721543ecc6e","title":"“Lights and Sirens”: Variation in 911 Call‐Taker Risk Appraisal and its Effects on Police Officer Perceptions at the Scene","abstract":"Until now, 911 dispatch centers largely have been the “black box” of the criminal justice system. This article opens that black box. It documents systematically a new mechanism in the policing process: the degree to which a 911 call‐taker's “alarmist” response to a call primes police officer perceptions at the scene. This study leverages the quasi‐random assignment of 911 call‐takers to calls and employs an instrumental variable approach novel to dispatch. The author focuses her analysis on call‐for‐service data (N = 20,764) involving mental health crises and public assaults—strategic sites for the investigation of call‐taker discretion—from a dispatch center in Southeast Michigan and finds a statistically significant difference in the propensity of call‐takers to classify the same types of calls as “high priority.” This variation, in turn, affects police perceptions. Calls for which call‐taker assignment induces a high priority classification are about three times more likely to be classified as high priority by the police at the scene, relative to the mean of the dependent variable. Effects are strongest for calls involving mental health crises. The theoretical developments and empirical results presented here point to new areas for policy reform for policymakers and practitioners regarding the importance of training 911 call‐takers in call triage and diversion.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jessica Gillooly"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22369","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e329d1070f7a3312","title":"Reinforcement learning in a prisoner's dilemma","abstract":"I characterize the outcomes of a class of model-free reinforcement learning algorithms, such as stateless Q-learning, in a prisoner's dilemma. The behavior is studied in the limit as players stop experimenting after sufficiently exploring their options. A closed form relationship between the learning rate and game payoffs reveals whether the players will learn to cooperate or defect. The findings have implications for algorithmic collusion and also apply to asymmetric learners with different experimentation rules.","wordCount":74,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Arthur Dolgopolov"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.01.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e33822832197a736","title":"Corporate culture and firm value: Evidence from crisis","abstract":"Based on the Competing Values Framework (CVF), we score 10-K text to measure company culture in four types (collaborative, controlling, competitive, and creative) and examine its role in firm stability. We find that firms with higher controlling culture fared significantly better during the 2008–09 crisis. Firms with stronger controlling culture experienced fewer layoffs, less negative asset growth, greater debt issuance, and increased access to credit-line facilities during the crisis. The positive effect of the controlling culture is stronger among the financially-constrained firms. Overall, the controlling culture improves firm stability through greater support from capital providers.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Yiwei Fang","Franco Fiordelisi","Iftekhar Hasan","Woon Sau Leung","Gabriel Wong"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106710","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e3383f20db95c98d","title":"Targeted Value-Enhancing Advertising and Price Competition","abstract":"Digital markets provide firms with vast amounts of consumer data. Economists who have explored this phenomenon have focused on how firms use data to implement price discrimination. Targeted advertising in this context transmits different price information to different consumers. However, advertising is itself often valued by consumers, and can be viewed as a complement to the advertised product. Such advertising may also be customized and targeted. We investigate how targeted value-enhancing advertising affects competition. Competing for consumers with targeted advertising leads overall to higher prices and increases consumer surplus but reduces profitability. In certain markets the advertising is inefficiently over-supplied.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Lynne Pepall","Daniel J. Richards"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09818-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e33e28195ca23f6c","title":"The political agenda effect and state centralization","abstract":"We provide a potential explanation, based on the “political agenda effect”, for the absence of, and unwillingness to create, centralized power in the hands of a national state. State centralization induces citizens of different backgrounds, interests, regions or ethnicities to coordinate their demands in the direction of more general-interest public goods, and away from parochial transfers. This political agenda effect raises the effectiveness of citizen demands and induces them to increase their investments in conflict capacity. In the absence of state centralization, citizens do not necessarily band together because of another force, the escalation effect, which refers to the fact that elites from different regions will join forces in response to the citizens doing so. Such escalation might hurt the citizen groups that have already solved their collective action problem (though it will benefit others). Anticipating the interplay of the political agenda and escalation effects, under some parameter configurations, political elites strategically opt for a non-centralized state. We show how the model generates non-monotonic comparative statics in response to the increase in the value or effectiveness of public goods (so that centralized states and public good provision may be absent precisely when they are more beneficial for society). We also suggest how the formation of a social democratic party may sometimes induce state centralization (by removing the commitment value of a non-centralized state), and how elites may sometimes prefer partial state centralization.","wordCount":232,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","James A. Robinson","Ragnar Torvik"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2020.03.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e357a2f68fc05f98","title":"Global Income Inequality, 1820–2020: the Persistence and Mutation of Extreme Inequality","abstract":"In this paper, we mobilize newly available historical series from the World Inequality Database to construct world income distribution estimates from 1820 to 2020. We find that the level of global income inequality has always been very large, reflecting the persistence of a highly hierarchical world economic system. Global inequality increased between 1820 and 1910, in the context of the rise of Western dominance and colonial empires, and then stabilized at a very high level between 1910 and 2020. Between 1820 and 1910, both between-countries and within-countries inequality were increasing. In contrast, these two components of global inequality have moved separately between 1910 and 2020: Within-countries inequality dropped in 1910–1980 (while between-countries inequality kept increasing) but rose in 1980–2020 (while between-countries inequality started to decline). As a consequence of these contradictory and compensating evolutions, early 21st century neo-colonial capitalism involves similar levels of inequality as early 20th century colonial capitalism, though it is based on a different set of rules and institutions. We also discuss how alternative rules such as fiscal revenue sharing could lead to a significant drop in global inequality.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Lucas Chancel","Thomas Piketty"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab047","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e3660e32bcb09257","title":"Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets","abstract":"This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions, especially for less advantaged entrants, that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm that the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from census data.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Hannes Schwandt","Till von Wachter"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701046","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e3b9d006387fa97e","title":"Pushing towards shared mobility","abstract":"This paper provides a theoretical argument for preferential treatment of shared vehicles (SV) over private ones by municipal parking authorities. When all parked vehicles are treated equally, multiple equilibria may exist: (i) a “private” one, in which travellers are hesitant to switch to SV because the latter are hard to find, and (ii) a “shared” equilibrium, in which travellers use shared mobility because the city is saturated with vacant SV. The latter equilibrium, if it exists, is shown to yield higher welfare. Municipal parking discounts for SV reduce the amount of investment required for a “big push” towards the shared equilibrium, or even make it the only equilibrium.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Roman Zakharenko"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103609","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e3bdd191c2a5a140","title":"Financial Constraints and Corporate Environmental Policies","abstract":"This paper documents evidence that financial constraints increase firms’ toxic emissions given that firms actively trade off abatement costs against potential legal liabilities. Exploring three quasi-natural experiments in which firms’ financial resources are likely exogenously affected, we find that relaxing financial constraints reduces U.S. public firms’ toxic releases. The effects of financial constraints on toxic releases are amplified when regulatory enforcement and external monitoring weaken. Overall, our evidence highlights the real effects of financial constraints in the form of environmental pollution, which is a costly negative externality imposed on society and public health.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Qiping Xu","Tae-Hyun Kim"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab056","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e3c34a9c08291a3c","title":"Can sticky portfolios explain international capital flows and asset prices?","abstract":"Recently portfolio choice has become an important element of many DSGE open economy models. Yet, a substantial body of evidence is inconsistent with standard frictionless portfolio choice models. In this paper we introduce a quadratic cost of changes in portfolio allocation into a two-country DSGE model. We investigate the level of portfolio frictions most consistent with the data and the impact of portfolio frictions on asset prices and net capital flows. We find the portfolio friction accounts for (i) micro evidence of portfolio inertia by households, (ii) macro evidence of the price impact of financial shocks and related disconnect of asset prices from fundamentals, (iii) a broad set of moments related to the time series behavior of saving, investment and net capital flows, and (iv) other phenomena relating to excess return dynamics. Financial and saving shocks each account for close to half of the variance of net capital flows.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Philippe Bacchetta","Margaret Davenport","Eric van Wincoop"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103583","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e3cdcfdd9ef2c4e1","title":"Firm Growth and Corruption: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam","abstract":"This article tests whether firm growth reduces corruption, using data from over 10, 000 Vietnamese firms. We employ instrumental variables based on growth in a firm's industry in other provinces within Vietnam and in China. We find that firm growth reduces bribes as a share of revenues. We propose a mechanism for this effect whereby government officials' decisions about bribes are modulated by inter-jurisdictional competition. This mechanism also implies that growth reduces bribery more for more mobile firms; consistent with this prediction, we find a larger effect for firms with transferable rights to their land or operations in multiple provinces.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Jie Bai","Seema Jayachandran","Edmund Malesky","Benjamin Olken"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12560","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e3d252b611f9aff6","title":"Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default","abstract":"This paper studies the treatment effect of monthly payment size on mortgage default, using a sample of adjustable-rate loans that experienced large payment reductions thanks to the recent low interest rate environment. Payment size has an economically large effect on repayment behavior; for instance, cutting the required payment in half reduces the delinquency hazard by about 55 percent. Importantly, the link between payment size and delinquency is equally strong for borrowers that are significantly underwater on their mortgage. Relying on payment reductions for identification circumvents the selection concerns due to prepayments that would be associated with rate increases.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Andreas Fuster","Paul Willen"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e3e8704a43c7fa83","title":"Pension reform and the efficiency-equity trade-off: Impacts of removing an early retirement subsidy","abstract":"We provide empirical evidence that the removal of work disincentives embedded in retirement earnings tests can increase old-age labor supply considerably, but it does so at the cost of more income inequality. To identify causal effects, we exploit a reform of the Norwegian early retirement program, which entailed that adjacent birth cohorts faced completely different work incentives from the age of 62. The reform removed a strict retirement earnings test such that pension wealth was redistributed from early to late retirees. Given pre-existing employment and earnings patterns, this implied a considerable rise in old-age income inequality. In theory, this direct increase in inequality could be either amplified or offset by changes in labor supply. We estimate that the reform triggered a 42% increase in average hours worked during the period covered by early retirement options; however, as labor supply responses were of similar magnitudes across the earnings distribution, they did little to modify the rise in inequality. As measured by the Gini coefficient, inequality in overall old-age income rose by approximately 0.03 (21%).","wordCount":173,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Asbjørn Andersen","Simen Markussen","Knut Røed"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102050","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e3eea9db914faded","title":"Maximal Condorcet domains. A further progress report","abstract":"Condorcet domains are sets of preference orders such that the majority relation corresponding to any profile of preferences from the domain is acyclic. The best known examples in economics are the single-peaked, the single-crossing, and the group separable domains. We survey the latest developments in the area since Monjardet's magisterial overview (2009), provide some new results and offer two conjectures concerning unsolved problems. The main goal of the presentation is to illuminate the rich internal structure of the class of maximal Condorcet domains. In an appendix, we present the complete classification of all maximal Condorcet domains on four alternatives obtained by Dittrich (2018).","wordCount":103,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Clemens Puppe","Arkadii Slinko"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.04.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e3efc55c500189e2","title":"Heterogeneous Markups, Growth, and Endogenous Misallocation","abstract":"Markups vary systematically across firms and are a source of misallocation. This paper develops a tractable model of firm dynamics where firms' market power is endogenous and the distribution of markups emerges as an equilibrium outcome. Monopoly power is the result of a process of forward‐looking, risky accumulation: firms invest in productivity growth to increase markups in their existing products but are stochastically replaced by more efficient competitors. Creative destruction therefore has pro‐competitive effects because faster churn gives firms less time to accumulate market power. In an application to firm‐level data from Indonesia, the model predicts that, relative to the United States, misallocation is more severe and firms are substantially smaller. To explain these patterns, the model suggests an important role for frictions that prevent existing firms from entering new markets. Differences in entry costs for new firms are less important.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Michael Peters"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15565","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e3f4c3805f75d8a1","title":"Political ideology, emotion response, and confirmation bias","abstract":"Motivated reasoning can serve to help resolve emotional discomfort, which suggests emotion as a likely moderator of such reasoning. This paper addresses a gap in the literature by examining emotion and confirmation bias in the political domain. Results from two preregistered studies, which involved over 900 unique participants, document a confirmation bias across distinct dimensions of belief and preference formation. Also, ideologically dissonant information significantly worsens self‐reported emotion. With some exceptions, the evidence generally supports the hypothesis that negative emotion moderates the strength of the bias, which highlights the importance of emotion response in understanding and potentially counteracting confirmation bias.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["David L. Dickinson"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13253","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e3f4cb268f253836","title":"Electoral motives and the subnational allocation of foreign aid in sub-Saharan Africa","abstract":"This paper examines how electoral motives shape the subnational allocation of foreign aid commitments by employing a newly constructed geocoded dataset for 14 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2012. Our results provide strong evidence of a core voter strategy: African leaders diverting Chinese aid towards regions with a high concentration of political supporters. However, no evidence of such preferential treatment is found for World Bank aid, suggesting that aid from traditional donors is less vulnerable to political manipulation. Our results also reveal that checks and balances in recipient countries are an important mediating factor of aid misallocation: while copartisan regions receive larger amounts of Chinese aid in environments with weak checks and balances, these effects disappear when stronger checks and balances are in place. This paper also offers case study evidence from Ghana. Exploiting the 2009 regime change in Ghana and using a difference-in-differences framework, we provide further support of copartisan targeting and confirm that Chinese aid is more manipulable than World Bank aid in this respect.","wordCount":168,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Christiana Anaxagorou","Georgios Efthyvoulou","Vassilis Sarantides"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103430","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e3f8550a63405b0f","title":"The Effect of Gender-Targeted Conditional Cash Transfers on Household Expenditures: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment","abstract":"This article studies the differential effect of targeting cash transfers to men or women on household expenditure on non-durables. We study a policy intervention in the Republic of North Macedonia that offers cash transfers to poor households, conditional on having their children attending secondary school. The recipient is randomised across municipalities, with payments targeted to either the mother or the father of the child. Targeting transfers to women increases the expenditure share on food by 4 to 5 percentage points. At low levels of food expenditure, there is a shift towards a more nutritious diet.","wordCount":95,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Alex Armand","Orazio Attanasio","Pedro Carneiro","Valérie Lechêne"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa056","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e3fafadd923b3cf9","title":"The mystery of the printing press: Monetary policy and self-fulfilling debt crises","abstract":"We study the conditions under which unconventional (balance sheet) monetary policy can rule out self-fulfilling sovereign default in a model with optimizing but discretionary fiscal and monetary policymakers. When purchasing sovereign debt, the central bank effectively swaps risky government paper for monetary liabilities only exposed to inflation risk, thus yielding a lower interest rate. As central bank purchases reduce the (ex ante) costs of debt, we characterize a critical threshold beyond which, absent fundamental fiscal stress, the government strictly prefers primary surplus adjustment to default. Because default may still occur for fundamental reasons, however, the central bank faces the risk of losses on sovereign debt holdings, which may generate inefficient inflation. We show that these losses do not necessarily undermine the credibility of a backstop, nor the monetary authorities' ability to pursue its inflation objectives. Backstops are credible if either the central bank enjoys fiscal backing or fiscal authorities are sufficiently averse to inflation.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Giancarlo Corsetti","Luca Dedola"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12184","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e40b556dae366c80","title":"Overlapping ownership and product innovation","abstract":"We characterize the effect of overlapping ownership (OO) on investments in drastic product innovation. The success probability of innovation increases with investment. We analyse two opposing forces: (1) OO induces firms to internalize that success on their own behalf erodes the rivals’ business, reducing investments; (2) OO softens competition in the product market, enhancing investments. Our analysis reveals that the competition-softening effect, by stimulating investments, can induce OO to benefit consumers, in particular when the R&D projects are complex. We also show that an incumbent technology raises the threshold required for OO to stimulate investments in innovation.","wordCount":97,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Rune Stenbacka","Geert Van Moer"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102980","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e40ea6a72810989d","title":"Sampling of alternatives in spatial decision contexts with logit and logit mixture models: Simulation and application to freshwater recreation in Germany","abstract":"Destination choice modeling is challenging as the number of feasible sites is often very large. Sampling of alternatives has been used successfully to make large choice sets manageable and yields consistent estimates under certain conditions. However, the specific structure of destination choice data has rarely been addressed explicitly. Besides large numbers of alternatives, it is characterized by a skewed distribution of travel costs with few low-cost nearby sites and a disproportionate increase in alternatives with distance. In this paper, we investigate how this characteristic travel cost structure affects the quality of destination choice models estimated on samples of alternatives. Comparing uniform and strategic sampling (Lemp and Kockelman, 2012), we find that (i) strategic sampling reduces bias and improves efficiency relative to uniform sampling, (ii) sampling performance generally declines with stronger travel cost sensitivity, and (iii) the gains from strategic sampling increase as travel cost sensitivity becomes stronger. For multinomial logit, strategic sampling yields high levels of accuracy and precision when drawing as few as 10 out of 20,000 alternatives. For mixed logit, bias is higher, while the protocol still offers substantial performance gains. After presenting Monte Carlo evidence, we apply both sampling approaches to a nationwide freshwater recreation dataset and examine their impact on welfare estimates for two policy scenarios, as well as on bias and efficiency.","wordCount":217,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Oliver Becker","Tobias Börger","Jürgen Meyerhoff"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101535","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e41574d6a5c3f694","title":"A note on nominal gdp targeting and the zero lower bound","abstract":"I compare nominal gross domestic product (GDP) level targeting with strict price level targeting in a small New Keynesian model, with the central bank operating under optimal discretion and facing a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. I show that, if the economy is only buffeted by purely temporary shocks to inflation, nominal GDP level targeting may be preferable because it requires the burden of the shocks to be shared by prices and output. However, in the presence of persistent supply and demand shocks, strict price level targeting may be superior because it induces greater policy inertia and improves the tradeoffs faced by the central bank. During lower bound episodes, somewhat paradoxically, nominal GDP level targeting leads to larger falls in nominal GDP.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Roberto M. Billi"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051500111x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e41733f679d8eaf6","title":"Habits as adaptations: An experimental study","abstract":"When observable cues correlate with optimal choices, habit-driven behavior can alleviate cognition costs. We experimentally study the degree of sophistication in habit formation and cue selection. To this end, we compare lab treatments that differ in the information provided to subjects, holding fixed the serial correlation of optimal actions. We find that a particular cue – own past action – affects behavior only in treatments in which this habit is useful. The result suggests that caution is warranted when modeling habits via a fixed non-separable utility. Despite this sophistication, lab behavior also reveals myopia in information acquisition.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ludmila Matysková","Brian W. Rogers","Jakub Steiner","Keh-Kuan Sun"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.04.013","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e417f05a35320ab2","title":"Sampling‐Based versus Design‐Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis","abstract":"Consider a researcher estimating the parameters of a regression function based on data for all 50 states in the United States or on data for all visits to a website. What is the interpretation of the estimated parameters and the standard errors? In practice, researchers typically assume that the sample is randomly drawn from a large population of interest and report standard errors that are designed to capture sampling variation. This is common even in applications where it is difficult to articulate what that population of interest is, and how it differs from the sample. In this article, we explore an alternative approach to inference, which is partly design‐based. In a design‐based setting, the values of some of the regressors can be manipulated, perhaps through a policy intervention. Design‐based uncertainty emanates from lack of knowledge about the values that the regression outcome would have taken under alternative interventions. We derive standard errors that account for design‐based uncertainty instead of, or in addition to, sampling‐based uncertainty. We show that our standard errors in general are smaller than the usual infinite‐population sampling‐based standard errors and provide conditions under which they coincide.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Alberto Abadie","Susan Athey","Guido W. Imbens","Jeffrey M. Wooldridge"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12675","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-e41863ba21aa9b94","title":"Infinitely repeated games in the laboratory: four perspectives on discounting and random termination","abstract":"This paper compares behavior under four different implementations of infinitely repeated games in the laboratory: the standard random termination method [proposed by Roth and Murnighan (J Math Psychol 17:189–198, 1978)] and three other methods that de-couple the expected number of rounds and the discount factor. Two of these methods involve a fixed number of repetitions with payoff discounting, followed by random termination [proposed by Sabater-Grande and Georgantzis (J Econ Behav Organ 48:37–50, 2002)] or followed by a coordination game [proposed in (Andersson and Wengström in J Econ Behav Organ 81:207–219, 2012; Cooper and Kuhn in Am Econ J Microecon 6:247–278, 2014a)]. We also propose a new method—block random termination—in which subjects receive feedback about termination in blocks of rounds. We find that behavior is consistent with the presence of dynamic incentives only with methods using random termination, with the standard method generating the highest level of cooperation. Subject behavior in the other two methods display two features: a higher level of stability in cooperation rates and less dependence on past experience. Estimates of the strategies used by subjects reveal that across implementations, even when the discount rate is the same, if interactions are expected to be longer defection increases and the use of the Grim strategy decreases.","wordCount":207,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Guillaume Fréchette","Sevgi Yüksel"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9494-z","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e41a3015223253e7","title":"Digital trade barriers and export performance: Evidence from China","abstract":"This paper investigates how Chinese manufacturing exports respond to destination countries' digital trade barriers. Using Chinese Customs data from 2014 to 2018 and data on countries' digital service trade restrictiveness by the OECD, we find that Chinese total manufacturing exports drop by 2.32%, or $30.92 billion, due to the increase in destination countries' composite digital trade barriers from 2014 to 2018. A further decomposition shows that the reduction is mostly explained by the decrease in export quantity, with export prices remaining relatively unchanged. Moreover, digital trade barriers decrease Chinese exports not only by depressing the exports of surviving products but also by reducing the exporting possibility of new entering products and increasing the risk of products' exiting. The heterogeneity analyses show that a favorable institutional environment helps alleviate the negative effects and that exports of high‐tech products are less sensitive to digital trade barriers.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Lingduo Jiang","Shuangshuang Liu","Guofeng Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12572","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e4216a9f6d119745","title":"Automated stock picking using random forests","abstract":"We derive a stock ranking by applying a technical features-based random forest model on an international dataset of liquid stocks. Rather than predicted return, our ranking is based on outperformance probability. By applying a decile split, we find that long–short portfolios achieve Sharpe ratios of up to 1.95 and a highly significant yearly six-factor alpha of up to 21.79%. Moreover, we show that outperformance probabilities serve as a superior measure of future returns in the context of portfolio optimization. Mean–variance portfolios using this measure are less volatile and more profitable than equally- or value-weighted portfolios. Our findings are robust to firm size, regional restrictions, and non-crisis periods and cannot be explained by limits to arbitrage.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Christian Breitung"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.05.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e4276dcf85ec79cd","title":"Currency matching by non-financial corporations","abstract":"The paper investigates firms’ willingness to match the currency composition of their assets and liabilities. Using detailed information at the loan contract level for the Hungarian non-financial corporate sector, the paper provides strong evidence to support the theory that currency matching plays a role in exporters’ debt currency choices. However, natural hedging is not the primary motive for firms to choose a foreign currency: it explains only 3.8 per cent of the overall new corporate foreign currency loans contracted by exporters and 2.9 per cent of the aggregate new foreign currency bank loans. Besides hedging, our results suggest that both carry trade and diversification strategies are relevant factors in firms’ currency-of-denomination decisions. Supply side factors are also found to be responsible for the prevalence of foreign currency loans among Hungarian corporate borrowers.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Péter Harasztosi","Gábor Kátay"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105739","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e42cc622761e173a","title":"Minimum wage effects on firm-provided and worker-initiated training","abstract":"This study examined the effects of minimum wages on formal and informal firm-provided training and worker-initiated training in Japan. Economic theory predicts that a minimum wage increase will adversely affect firm-provided training, and while we found that this effect was indeed observed on formal training, with a 1% increase in the minimum wage causing a 2.8% decline in the formal training of workers affected by minimum wage increases, no statistically significant decrease occurred with informal training. Further, although workers can potentially increase their self-learning activities to compensate for any decrease in skill development opportunities in the workplace, we found that an increase in the minimum wage did not increase worker-initiated training. Therefore, the overall effect of an increase in the minimum wage was a decrease in skill development among those workers affected by minimum wages.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Hiromi Hara"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.05.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e438ac9b1992bae8","title":"Child marriage as informal insurance: Empirical evidence and policy simulations","abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between child marriage and economic incentives in a setting where the bride price – a transfer from the groom to the bride’s parents at marriage – is customary. First, we develop a dynamic model in which households are exposed to income volatility and have no access to credit markets. If a daughter marries, her household obtains a bride price. In this framework, girls may have a higher probability of marrying early when their parents have a higher marginal utility of consumption because of adverse income shocks. Second, we measure the responsiveness of child marriage to income fluctuations by exploiting variation in rainfall shocks over a woman’s life cycle, using a survey dataset from rural Tanzania. We find that adverse shocks during teenage years increase the probability of early marriages. Third, we use these empirical results to estimate the parameters of our model and isolate the role of the bride price custom for consumption smoothing. In counterfactual exercises, we show that enforcing child marriage bans can have lasting effects on the timing of marriage even after a woman has exceeded the minimal age of marriage. The utility cost to parents of such enforcement is not large. Cash transfers, both conditional on avoiding child marriage and unconditional, can reduce early marriages, especially when they target low-income households.","wordCount":220,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Lucia Corno","Alessandra Voena"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103047","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e43bfcc195849d9d","title":"Bipartite network influence analysis of a two-mode network","abstract":"A two-mode network contains two types of nodes, and edges exist only between any two nodes that are associated with different entities. Owing to the network connections (i.e., edges) between the two types of network nodes, nodal responses are unlikely to be independently and identically distributed, resulting in possible nodal heterogeneity across the two types of nodes. This study proposes a novel bipartite network influence model (BNIM) to evaluate nodal heterogeneity from the perspective of nodal influence. To make the model estimable, we parameterize the influence indices with a set of nodal attributes through a prespecified link function, and employ the quasi-maximum likelihood approach to estimate the unknown parameters. Score tests are presented to examine the heterogeneity of nodal influences across the two types of nodes. To assess the adequacy of the link function, we carry out a quasi-likelihood ratio test and establish its asymptotic properties under the appropriate conditions. Simulation studies and the real data analysis of a fund-stock network are studied to assess the finite-sample performance of BNIM.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Yujia Wu","Wei Lan","Xinyan Fan","Kuangnan Fang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105562","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e44a245dbf5a6b35","title":"Short-term reversals, returns to liquidity provision and the costs of immediacy","abstract":"Some mutual funds act as contrarian traders, earning returns in the stock market by providing liquidity, while others demand liquidity and suffer costs of immediacy. The funds’ liquidity demand has increased over time. On average, the mutual funds’ costs of immediacy exceed their returns from providing liquidity by 1.9% pa. High market beta funds, large cap funds, and funds exposed to momentum suffer over 2.5% pa. in costs of immediacy. Other results are that mutual funds’ average alpha becomes insignificant when the costs of immediacy are accounted for and in the cross-section, the funds’ costs of immediacy predict their alphas.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Anna Ignashkina","Kalle Rinne","Matti Suominen"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106430","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e45bec4b384defaf","title":"Correlation neglect and case-based decisions","abstract":"In most theories of choice under uncertainty, decision-makers are assumed to evaluate acts in terms of subjective values attributed to consequences and probabilities assigned to events. Case-based decision theory (CBDT), proposed by Gilboa and Schmeidler, is fundamentally different, and in the tradition of reinforcement learning models. It has no state space and no concept of probability. An agent evaluates each available act in terms of the consequences he has experienced through choosing that act in previous decision problems that he perceives to be similar to his current problem. Gilboa and Schmeidler present CBDT as a complement to expected utility theory (EUT), applicable only when the state space is unknown. Accordingly, most experimental tests of CBDT have used problems for which EUT makes no predictions. In contrast, we test the conjecture that case-based reasoning may also be used when relevant probabilities can be derived by Bayesian inference from observations of random processes, and that such reasoning may induce violations of EUT. Our experiment elicits participants’ valuations of a lottery after observing realisations of the lottery being valued and realisations of another lottery. Depending on the treatment, participants know that the payoffs from the two lotteries are independent, positively correlated, or negatively correlated. We find no evidence of correlation neglect indicative of case-based reasoning. However, in the negative correlation treatment, valuations cannot be explained by Bayesian reasoning, while stated qualitative judgements about chances of winning can.","wordCount":234,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Benjamin Radoc","Robert Sugden","Theodore L. Turocy"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09309-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e45cd87f67d7b114","title":"Preferences for community renewable energy investments in Europe","abstract":"This paper presents the results of a choice experiment for investments in community renewable energy (CRE) projects administered across 31 European nations. In the sample of 18,037 respondents, a high level of interest in the CRE investments is observed, with 79% of respondents choosing to invest in at least one of the eight investment scenarios shown to them. Along with financial concerns, operational and siting aspects of the investment options are highly relevant to potential investors. Specifically, investments that are administered as an energy cooperative and run by a community organization are preferred to investments administered by utility companies. Heterogeneity across Europe is present in the preference for the installation to be visible from an investor's home, and thereby potentially affect the viewshed but also allow for a perception of self-sufficiency. The results suggest that energy policies hoping to increase the uptake of the CRE model across Europe would do well to focus on supporting local organizations to administer such projects, and to highlight any positive local economic impacts from renewable generation projects to potential investors.","wordCount":176,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Jed Cohen","Valeriya Azarova","Andrea Kollmann","Johannes Reichl"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105386","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e46f7fd7bc0941f1","title":"Information advantages, excessive risk-taking, and capital regulation for BigTechs in financial intermediation","abstract":"This paper establishes theoretical models to study capital regulation of BigTech firms (BigTechs hereafter) providing financial intermediation services. In our models, BigTechs borrow debts to invest between socially efficient prudent assets and socially inefficient risky assets. Limited liabilities imply that with a higher capital adequacy ratio, BigTechs are more risk averse and favor the prudent asset more. Then we examine how better information of BigTechs will affect BigTechs' incentive for excessive risk-taking, welfare, and capital regulation. The major results produced by our models are as follows: (1) Better information of BigTechs does not eliminate and could in some circumstances exacerbate their excessive risk-taking behavior. (2) Better information of BigTechs does not necessarily improve welfare. BigTechs could employ better information to more precisely identify the socially inefficient risky asset to invest in, causing more severe resource misallocation. (3) Capital regulation is an effective tool to curb BigTechs' excessive risk-taking and to ensure that better information of BigTechs will improve welfare.","wordCount":159,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Mei Li","Junfeng Qiu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101989","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e47119d8b1919daa","title":"Weber Revisited: The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Nationalism","abstract":"We revisit Max Weber’s hypothesis on the role of Protestantism for economic development. We show that nationalism is crucial to both, the interpretation of Weber’s Protestant Ethic and empirical tests thereof. For late nineteenth-century century Prussia we reject Weber’s suggestion that Protestantism mattered due to an “ascetic compulsion to save.” Moreover, we find that income levels, savings, and literacy rates differed between Germans and Poles, not between Protestants and Catholics, using pooled OLS and IV regressions. We suggest that this result is due to anti-Polish discrimination.","wordCount":86,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Felix Kersting","Iris Wohnsiedler","Nikolaus Wolf"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000364","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e475607194955248","title":"Intended and Unintended Effects of Banning Menthol Cigarettes","abstract":"Bans on menthol cigarettes have been adopted throughout the European Union, proposed by the US Food and Drug Administration, and enacted by legislatures in Massachusetts and California. Yet there is very limited evidence on their effects using real-world policy variation. We study the intended and unintended effects of menthol cigarette bans in Canada, where seven provinces banned them prior to a nationwide ban in 2018. Difference-in-differences models using national survey data return no evidence that provincial menthol cigarette bans affected overall smoking rates for youths or adults. Although menthol cigarette smoking fell for both youths and adults, youths increased nonmenthol cigarette smoking, and adults shifted cigarette purchases to unregulated First Nations reserves. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for substitution and evasion responses in the design of stricter tobacco regulations.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Christopher S. Carpenter","Hai V. Nguyen"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713978","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e486315628637a8b","title":"The response of regional well-being to place-based policy interventions","abstract":"Enhancing the well-being of its citizens is the central remit of the EU's regional policy, but as yet, there is no analysis of the effects of EU regional policy on local well-being. The aim of this paper is to examine this relationship. To do this, we define a novel regionalised well-being measure and we exploit a dataset on regional expenditure in a continuous treatment framework. Based on both parametric and semi-parametric approaches, our analysis demonstrates that the EU regional development policy does influence regional well-being differently from GDP. We find evidence of a linear monotonic response of well-being growth to total transfers, although this effect varies according to the time lag considered and the level of development of the region.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Antonella Rita Ferrara","Lewis Dijkstra","Philip McCann","Rosanna Nisticò"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103830","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e48c772585caa202","title":"Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices","abstract":"Nearly all studies that analyze the term structure of interest rates take a two-step approach. First, actual bond prices are summarized by interpolated synthetic zero-coupon yields, and second, some of these yields are used as the source data for further empirical examination. In contrast, we consider the advantages of a one-step approach that directly analyzes the universe of bond prices. To illustrate the feasibility and desirability of the one-step approach, we compare arbitrage-free dynamic term structure models estimated using both approaches. We also provide a simulation study showing that a one-step approach can extract the information in large panels of bond prices and avoid any arbitrary noise introduced from a first-stage interpolation of yields.","wordCount":114,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Martin Møller Andreasen","Jens H. E. Christensen","Glenn D. Rudebusch"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.04.019","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e496f2eadb21ef4a","title":"The heterogeneity of beauty premium in China: Evidence from CFPS","abstract":"Using a nationwide representative sample of the Chinese population, we examine the effect of physical appearance on the hourly wage. Our theoretical framework that connects physical appearance and the hourly wage has two predictions. First, the beauty premium is larger for high-skilled workers than for low-skilled workers. Second, this statistical-based discrimination arises from the hiring manager’s belief that beauty contributes to productivity through non-cognitive skills. Empirical results confirm both predictions. Good-looking individuals earn roughly 5.4% more than the rest, and bad-looking individuals earn roughly 3.3% less than the rest. Moreover, quantile estimates show that the effect of physical appearance at the 0.75 quantile is more than twice as the one at the 0.25 quantile. Finally, social skills, communication skills, and self-confidence are three transmission channels through which physical appearance can positively affect one’s hourly wage in our sample. Our findings imply that the beauty premium is widespread in the labor market and relevant anti-discrimination regulations are needed.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Langchuan Peng","Xi Wang","Shanshan Ying"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.12.014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e4a6b818f598f202","title":"The Simple Economics of Optimal Persuasion","abstract":"We propose a price-theoretic approach to Bayesian persuasion by establishing an analogy between the sender’s problem and finding Walrasian equilibria of a persuasion economy. The sender, who acts as a consumer, purchases posterior beliefs at their prices using the prior distribution as her endowment. A single firm has the technology to garble the state. Welfare theorems provide a verification tool for optimality of a persuasion scheme and characterize the structure of prices that support the optimal solution. This approach yields a tractable solution method for persuasion problems in which the sender’s utility depends only on the expected state.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Piotr Dworczak","Giorgio Martini"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/701813","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e4ace95418eb2be4","title":"Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory","abstract":"In this paper, we review the literature on declining business dynamism and its implications in the United States and propose a unifying theory to analyze the symptoms and the potential causes of this decline. We first highlight 10 pronounced stylized facts related to declining business dynamism documented in the literature and discuss some of the existing attempts to explain them. We then describe a theoretical framework of endogenous markups, innovation, and competition that can potentially speak to all of these facts jointly. We next explore some theoretical predictions of this framework, which are shaped by two interacting forces: a composition effect that determines the market concentration and an incentive effect that determines how firms respond to a given concentration in the economy. The results highlight that a decline in knowledge diffusion between frontier and laggard firms could be a significant driver of empirical trends observed in the data. This study emphasizes the potential of growth theory for the analysis of factors behind declining business dynamism and the need for further investigation in this direction.","wordCount":174,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Ufuk Akcigit","Sina T. Ates"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180449","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e4b89522dbea8a74","title":"The Evolution of Culture and Institutions: Evidence From the Kuba Kingdom","abstract":"We use variation in historical state centralization to examine the long-term impact of institutions on cultural norms. The Kuba Kingdom, established in Central Africa in the early 17th century by King Shyaam, had more developed state institutions than the other independent villages and chieftaincies in the region. It had an unwritten constitution, separation of political powers, a judicial system with courts and juries, a police force, a military, taxation, and significant public goods provision. Comparing individuals from the Kuba Kingdom to those from just outside the Kingdom, we find that centralized formal institutions are associated with weaker norms of rule following and a greater propensity to cheat for material gain. This finding is consistent with recent models where endogenous investments to inculcate values in children decline when there is an increase in the effectiveness of formal institutions that enforce socially desirable behavior. Consistent with such a mechanism, we find that Kuba parents believe it is less important to teach children values related to rule-following behaviors.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Sara Lowes","Nathan Nunn","James A. Robinson","Jonathan Weigel"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14139","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e4ba0e7285f74006","title":"Animal Welfare and Social Decisions: Is It Time to Take Bentham Seriously?","abstract":"This paper analyzes and questions the standard welfare economics assumption of anthropocentric welfarism, i.e., that only human well-being counts intrinsically. Alternatives where also animal welfare matters intrinsically are analyzed both theoretically and empirically. The general public's ethical preferences are measured through a survey of a representative sample in Sweden, and the responses from a clear majority suggest that animal welfare should indeed carry intrinsic weight in public decision making. Current legislation in many countries is consistent with this. A brief review of moral philosophy on animal welfare indicates that a large majority of philosophers believe that animal welfare should count intrinsically. It is moreover demonstrated that it is theoretically and practically possible to generalize welfare economics in order to give intrinsic value also to animal welfare. The paper concludes that there are strong reasons to (sometimes) generalize welfare economics in order to take animal welfare into account directly, i.e., in addition to effects through individual utilities. The practical implications of doing so are likely to be more important over time as the scientific methods of measuring animal welfare are gradually improving.","wordCount":181,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Olof Johansson‐Stenman"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.08.019","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e4c13c79f9131fd6","title":"The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China","abstract":"We study how monetary policy in China influences banks’ shadow banking activities. We develop and estimate the endogenously switching monetary policy rule that is based on institutional facts and at the same time tractable in the spirit of Taylor (1993). This development, along with two newly constructed micro banking datasets, enables us to establish the following empirical evidence. Contractionary monetary policy during 2009–2015 caused shadow banking loans to rise rapidly, offsetting the expected decline of traditional bank loans and hampering the effectiveness of monetary policy on total bank credit. We advance a theoretical explanation of our empirical findings.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Kaiji Chen","Jue Ren","Tao Zha"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170133","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e4c32c6057071311","title":"Noncompete Agreements in the US Labor Force","abstract":"Using nationally representative survey data on 11,505 labor force participants, we examine the use and implementation of noncompete agreements and the employee outcomes associated with these provisions. Approximately 18 percent of labor force participants are bound by noncompetes, with 38 percent having agreed to at least one in the past. Noncompetes are more likely to be found in high-skill, high-paying jobs, but they are also common in low-skill, low-paying jobs and in states where noncompetes are unenforceable. Only 10 percent of employees negotiate over their noncompetes, and about one-third of employees are presented with noncompetes after having already accepted job offers. Early-notice noncompetes are associated with better employee outcomes, while employees who agree to late-notice noncompetes are comparatively worse off. Regardless of noncompete timing, however, wages are relatively lower where noncompetes are easier to enforce. We discuss these findings in light of competing theories of the economic value of noncompetes.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Evan Starr","J.J. Prescott","Norman Bishara"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712206","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e4e01b23464a208e","title":"On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market","abstract":"The paper provides a high-frequency analysis of liquidity dynamics in the eurozone sovereign bond market over tranquil and crisis periods. We study time series of liquidity across the yield curve using high-frequency data from MTS, one of Europe’s leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms. We document flight-to-liquidity effects as investors prefer to trade on shorter-term benchmarks during liquidity dry-ups. We provide evidence of significant commonalities in spread and depth liquidity proxies which are weaker during the crisis period for both core and periphery economies although periphery countries display higher commonality than core countries during the crisis. We show that illiquidity of the periphery countries plays an important role in market dynamics and Granger causes illiquidity, volatility, returns, and CDS spreads across the maturity spectrum in both calm and crisis periods. Liquidity is priced both as a characteristic and as a risk factor even when controlling for credit risk, pointing to liquidity’s systematic dimension and importance.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Conall O’Sullivan","Vassilios G. Papavassiliou"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105777","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e4edee87d9119d30","title":"Measuring consumption over the phone: Evidence from a survey experiment in urban Ethiopia","abstract":"The paucity of reliable, timely household consumption data in many low- and middle-income countries have made it difficult to assess how global poverty has evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard poverty measurement requires collecting household consumption data, which is rarely collected by phone. To test the feasibility of collecting consumption data over the phone, we conducted a survey experiment in urban Ethiopia, randomly assigning households to either phone or in-person interviews. In the phone survey, average per capita consumption is 23 percent lower and the estimated poverty headcount is twice as high than in the in-person survey. We observe evidence of survey fatigue occurring early in phone interviews but not in in-person interviews; the bias is correlated with household characteristics. While the phone survey mode provides comparable estimates when measuring diet-based food security, it is not amenable to measuring consumption using the 'best practice' approach originally devised for in-person surveys.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Gashaw Tadesse Abate","Alan de Brauw","Kalle Hirvonen","Abdulazize Wolle"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103026","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e4efc4b49500938b","title":"Differential treatment and the winner's effort in contests with incomplete information","abstract":"We study the design of all-pay contests when the organizer's objective is to maximize the expected winner's effort and contestants have private information about their valuations for the prize. We identify sufficient conditions for every optimal contest to involve differential treatment of ex ante symmetric contestants. Moreover, we provide a complete characterization of optimal contests when valuations are uniformly distributed. Finally, our results for the winner's effort also imply that differential treatment is even more likely to benefit the organizer when her objective is to maximize the expected highest effort.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Cédric Wasser","Mengxi Zhang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.12.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e4fb56e9c7e94177","title":"Investor experiences and international capital flows","abstract":"We propose a novel explanation for classic international macro puzzles regarding capital flows and portfolio investment, which builds on modern macro-finance models of experience-based belief formation. Individual experiences of past macroeconomic outcomes have been shown to exert a long-lasting influence on beliefs about future realizations, and to explain domestic stock-market investment. We argue that experience effects can explain the tendency of investors to hold an over proportional fraction of their equity wealth in domestic stocks (home bias), to invest in domestic equity markets in periods of domestic crises (retrenchment), and to withdraw capital from foreign equity markets in periods of foreign crises (fickleness). Experience-based learning generates additional implications regarding the strength of these puzzles in times of higher or lower economic activity and depending on the demographic composition of market participants. We test and confirm these predictions in the data.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Ulrike Malmendier","Demián Pouzo","Victoria Vanasco"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103302","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e51a72ffe74e3b63","title":"Women’s empowerment and gender equity in agriculture: A different perspective from Southeast Asia","abstract":"Women’s empowerment is considered a ‘prerequisite’ to achieving global food security. Gender systems, however, are diverse and complex. The nature and extent of gender inequity and the conditions necessary to empower women vary across countries, communities and regions. The study of different gender systems is thus fundamental to capture cross-cultural variations in gender specific needs and constraints to effectively address gender gaps. Although the status of women in agriculture has received extensive attention in the literature in recent decades, a research gap persists regarding the state of gender inequity in Southeast Asian agriculture. The current paper contributes to the geographical scope of the literature by presenting empirical evidence of gender inequity from four Southeast Asian countries: Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Using the framework recommended by the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI), 37 focus group discussions were conducted with 290 women farmers in the above mentioned countries. The results reveal trends that contradict the conventional narratives of gender inequity in agriculture in certain domains of empowerment. In all four countries, women appear to have equal access to productive resources such as land and inputs, and greater control over household income than men. Important intra-regional heterogeneity is observed in terms of community-level empowerment. While women play an active role in agricultural groups in Thailand and in the Philippines, this is predominantly men’s territory in Indonesia and Myanmar. These findings imply that country-specific gender intervention frameworks are necessary to overcome gender gaps in agriculture.","wordCount":244,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Sonia Akter","Pieter Rutsaert","Joyce Luis","Nyo Me Htwe","Su Su San","Budi Raharjo","Arlyna Budi Pustika"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.05.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e523922eec7012ba","title":"Resolving the missing deflation puzzle","abstract":"A resolution of the missing deflation puzzle is proposed. Our resolution stresses the importance of nonlinearities in price- and wage-setting when the economy is exposed to large shocks. We show that a nonlinear macroeconomic model with real rigidities resolves the missing deflation puzzle, while a linearized version of the same underlying nonlinear model fails to do so. In addition, our nonlinear model reproduces the skewness of inflation and other macroeconomic variables observed in post-war U.S. data. All told, our results caution against the common practice of using linearized models to study inflation and output dynamics.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Martín Harding","Jesper Lindé","Mathias Trabandt"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.09.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e5339b41e79fd8a1","title":"Online Market Resilience to Economic Shocks: Evidence Based on Price Dispersion from the COVID-19 Outbreak in China","abstract":"We examine the effect of COVID-19 epidemic and the subsequent stay-at-home order on market efficiency in China’s online markets. Through a comparison of price dispersion changes across online retail platforms around the lockdown date with the corresponding period in the 2019 lunar year—with the use of a unique and extensive online retail price dataset—we find a counterintuitive decrease in product price dispersion during the epidemic, which is contrary to conventional economic expectations during adverse events. Our study differentiates products by crisis-time demand elasticity—e.g., food versus clothing—and by online search intensity. This reveals that the lockdown and prolonged stay-at-home period facilitated online searches by consumers, which reduced information costs and enhanced market efficiency. The pandemic-induced decrease in price dispersion can be largely attributed to heightened online search activity: after we adjust for the intensity of search, the remaining pandemic effect on price dispersion becomes positive. China’s resilient online market acted as a protective buffer during the COVID-19 crisis. The transition from offline to online markets and increased search activities bolstered online market functionality and mitigated the epidemic’s repercussions.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Taoxiong Liu","Huolan Cheng","Jianping Liu","Zhen Sun"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09987-5","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e537ffc7eb7ec0b4","title":"Confidential and legal access to abortion and contraception in the USA, 1960–2020","abstract":"An expansive empirical literature estimates the causal effects of policies governing young women’s confidential and legal access to contraception and abortion. I present a new review of changes in the historical policy environment in the USA that serve as the foundation of this literature. I consult primary sources, including annotated statutes, judicial rulings, attorney general opinions, and advisory articles in medical journals, as well as secondary sources including newspaper articles and snapshots of various policy environments prepared by scholars, advocates, and government organizations. Based on this review, I provide a suggested coding of the policy environment over the past 60 years. I also present and compare the legal coding schemes used in the empirical literature and where possible I resolve numerous and substantial discrepancies.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Caitlin Knowles Myers"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00902-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e54c2d1491a66784","title":"How Large is the Sovereign Greenium?","abstract":"This paper assembles a comprehensive sovereign green bond database and estimates the sovereign greenium . The development of green bond markets has been one of the most important financial breakthroughs in the domain of sustainable finance during the last 15 years. A central pecuniary benefit for green bond issuers has been that these bonds exhibit a positive green premium ( greenium ), that is, a lower yield relative to a similar conventional bond. Yet, issuances at the sovereign level have been relatively recent and not well documented in the literature. We find that green bonds are issued at a relatively small premium (4 basis points on average) in Advanced Economies. Yet, importantly, the greenium is growing over time and is considerably larger (11 basis points on average) for Emerging Market Economies.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sakai Ando","Chenxu Fu","Francisco Roch","Ursula Wiriadinata"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12619","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e55cebf1c10f58a5","title":"On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index","abstract":"This paper proposes a framework for modelling projections of multidimensional poverty. We use recently published repeated observations of multidimensional poverty, based on time-consistent indicators, for 75 countries. We consider and evaluate different approaches to model these countries’ trajectories of poverty reduction. Our preferred model respects theoretical bounds, is supported by empirical evidence, and ensures consistency of our main measure with its subindices. In our empirical analysis we first use this approach to assess whether countries are on track to halve poverty incidence between 2015 and 2030 if recent trends continue – 51 are – before assessing the reasonableness of this target. Subsequently, we discuss implications of our modelling framework for computing projections under sustained efforts, setting poverty reduction targets, and the evaluation of trajectory changes. These implications mainly follow from the bounded nature of our outcome variables and are, therefore, applicable to a wide array of development indicators.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Sabina Alkire","Ricardo Nogales","Natalie Naïri Quinn","Nicolai Suppa"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103150","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e56585f82708a3e5","title":"Do managers accept artificial intelligence? Insights into the role of business area and AI functionality","abstract":"Results suggest that managers do not accept AI that autonomously implements. More and more companies use artificial intelligence (AI). Research aimed to understand acceptance from the perspective of AI users or people affected by AI decisions. However, the perspective of decision-makers in companies (i.e., managers) has not been considered. To address this gap, we investigate managers’ acceptance of AI usage in companies, focusing on two potential determinants. Across four experimental studies ( N total = 2025), we tested whether the business area (i.e., human resources vs. finances/ marketing) and AI functionality affect managers’ acceptance of AI (i.e., perceived risk of negative consequences, willingness to invest). Findings indicate that managers (a) perceive more risk of and (b) are less willing to invest in AI usage in human resources than in finances and marketing. Besides, the results suggest that acceptance declines if functionality crosses a critical boundary and AI autonomously implements decisions without prior human control. Accordingly, the current research sheds light on the AI acceptance of managers and gives insights into the role of the business area and AI functionality.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Miriam Gieselmann","Daniel Erdsiek","Vincent Rost","Kai Sassenberg"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102804","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-e56829af6ae85b56","title":"Adolescent School Bullying Victimization and Later Life Outcomes","abstract":"We analyse the consequences of experiencing bullying victimization in junior high school, using data on a cohort of English adolescents. The data contain self‐reports of five types of bullying and their frequency, for three waves, when the pupils were aged 13–16 years. We assess the effects of bullying victimization on short‐ and long‐term outcomes, including educational achievements, income and mental ill‐health at age 25 years using a variety of estimation strategies – least squares, matching and inverse probability weighting. The detailed longitudinal data, linked to administrative records, allows us to control for many of the determinants of child outcomes that have been explored in previous literature, and we employ comprehensive sensitivity analyses to assess the potential role of unobserved variables. The pattern of results suggests that there are quantitatively important detrimental effects on victims. We find that both type of bullying and its intensity matter for high‐stakes outcomes at 16 years, and for long‐term outcomes at 25 such as mental health and income.","wordCount":163,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Emma Gorman","Colm Harmon","Silvia Mendolia","Anita Staneva","Ian Walker"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12432","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e57c0db06a4b19c0","title":"Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy","abstract":"We study the role of financial frictions and firm heterogeneity in determining the investment channel of monetary policy. Empirically, we find that firms with low default risk—those with low debt burdens and high “distance to default”— are the most responsive to monetary shocks. We interpret these findings using a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with default risk. In our model, low‐risk firms are more responsive to monetary shocks because they face a flatter marginal cost curve for financing investment. The aggregate effect of monetary policy may therefore depend on the distribution of default risk, which varies over time.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Pablo Ottonello","Thomas Winberry"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15949","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e57dbc5e6091a655","title":"Generative AI at Work","abstract":"We study the staggered introduction of a generative AI–based conversational assistant using data from 5,172 customer-support agents. Access to AI assistance increases worker productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 15% on average, with substantial heterogeneity across workers. The effects vary significantly across different agents. Less experienced and lower-skilled workers improve both the speed and quality of their output, while the most experienced and highest-skilled workers see small gains in speed and small declines in quality. We also find evidence that AI assistance facilitates worker learning and improves English fluency, particularly among international agents. While AI systems improve with more training data, we find that the gains from AI adoption are largest for moderately rare problems, where human agents have less baseline experience but the system still has adequate training data. Finally, we provide evidence that AI assistance improves the experience of work along several dimensions: customers are more polite and less likely to ask to speak to a manager.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Erik Brynjolfsson","Danielle Li","Lindsey Raymond"],"year":2025,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjae044","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e58bbc3521970d95","title":"Cartel Damages Claims, Passing-On, and Passing-Back","abstract":"Firms can mitigate the harm of an input cartel by passing on some of the higher cost to their customers by raising their own prices. Recent damages claims have highlighted that firms may also respond by reducing the prices that are paid to their suppliers of complementary inputs; the firm thereby passes back some harm upstream. To provide guidance for practitioners as to how such effects together affect the division of the harm, we derive the equilibrium ‘passing-on’ and ‘passing-back’ effects in a successive oligopolies model where one of two inputs is cartelised. We show that the passing-back effect is larger when there is greater market power in the complementary input sector. This reduces the passing-on effect. The complementary input suppliers can incur substantial harm, and the harm that is inflicted on the cartel’s direct and/or indirect purchasers can thereby be reduced.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Luke Garrod","Tien-Der Han","James Harvey","Matthew Olczak"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09991-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e58e1874e66b146a","title":"Disaster resilience and asset prices","abstract":"Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a laboratory, we show that asset markets assign a time-varying price to firms’ disaster risk exposure. The cross-section of stock returns reflected firms’ different exposure to the pandemic, as measured by their vulnerability to social distancing. As predicted by theory, realized and expected return differentials moved in opposite directions, initially widening and then narrowing. When inferred from market outcomes, firm resilience correlates mainly with exposure to social distancing: vulnerability to social distancing is priced in changes of firms’ expected returns, while measures of financial and environmental resilience are not.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Marco Pagano","Christian Wagner","Josef Zechner"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103712","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e5a7628fa2e319e8","title":"Decompositions and Policy Consequences of an Extraordinary Decline in Air Pollution from Electricity Generation","abstract":"Using integrated assessment models, we calculate the economic value of the extraordinary decline in emissions from US power plants. Annual local and global air pollution damages fell from $245 to $133 billion over 2010–2017. Decomposition shows changes in emission rates and generation shares among coal and gas plants account for more of this decline than changes in renewable generation, electricity consumption, and damage valuations. Econometrically estimated marginal damages declined in the East from 8.6 to 6 cents per kWh. Marginal damages increased slightly in the West and Texas. These estimates indicate electric vehicles are now cleaner on average than gasoline vehicles.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Stephen P. Holland","Erin T. Mansur","Nicholas Z. Muller","Andrew J. Yates"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190390","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e5b12caf1b1c4b0b","title":"Within-Season Producer Response to Warmer Temperatures: Defensive Investments by Kenyan Farmers","abstract":"We present evidence that farmers adjust agricultural inputs in response to within-season temperature variation, undertaking defensive investments to reduce the adverse agro-ecological impacts of warmer temperatures. Using panel data from Kenyan maize-growing households, we find that higher temperatures early in the growing season increase the use of pesticides, while reducing fertiliser use. Warmer temperatures throughout the season increase weeding effort. These adjustments arise because greater heat increases the incidence of pests, crop diseases and weeds, compelling farmers to divert investment from productivity-enhancing technologies such as fertiliser to adaptive, loss-reducing, defensive inputs such as pesticides and weeding labour.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Maulik Jagnani","Christopher B. Barrett","Yanyan Liu","Liangzhi You"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa063","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e5cce7cb31534e91","title":"Creating balance in dynamic competitions","abstract":"We consider incentives for organizing competitions in multiple rounds, focusing on situations where there is heterogeneity among the contestants ex ante, which discourages effort in a single contest. Heterogeneity evolves across rounds depending upon the outcomes of previous rounds. We present conditions under which balance in such a competition can be created, by determining the number of rounds and dividing the prize fund carefully across them, so that full rent dissipation entails. In the model, each round is an all-pay auction where contestants differ in their abilities to gain a momentum from winning. We also discuss the case when negative prizes are feasible, demonstrating that this strengthens the full dissipation result; and we consider a case where the size of the winner’s momentum is related to the size of the prize attained, showing that the stronger this linkage, the less of the prize is awarded early on.","wordCount":147,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Derek J. Clark","Tore Nilssen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.102578","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e5d26ef02a68a3ee","title":"Portfolio Manager Compensation in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry","abstract":"We study compensation contracts of individual portfolio managers using hand‐collected data of over 4,500 U.S. mutual funds. Variations in the compensation structures are broadly consistent with an optimal contracting equilibrium. The likelihood of explicit performance‐based incentives is positively correlated with the intensity of agency conflicts, as proxied by the advisor's clientele dispersion, its affiliations in the financial industry, and its ownership structure. Investor sophistication and the threat of dismissal in outsourced funds serve as substitutes for explicit performance‐based incentives. Finally, we find little evidence of differences in future performance associated with any particular compensation arrangement.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Linlin Ma","Yuehua Tang","Juan-Pedro Gómez"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12749","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e5d5e1b04a5dd76c","title":"House Prices and Consumer Spending","abstract":"Recent empirical work shows large consumption responses to house price movements. This is at odds with a prominent theoretical view which, using the logic of the permanent income hypothesis, argues that consumption responses should be small. We show that, in contrast to this view, workhorse models of consumption with incomplete markets calibrated to rich cross-sectional micro facts actually predict large consumption responses, in line with the data. To explain this result, we show that consumption responses to permanent house price shocks can be approximated by a simple and robust rule-of-thumb formula: the marginal propensity to consume out of temporary income times the value of housing. In our model, consumption responses depend on a number of factors such as the level and distribution of debt, the size and history of house price shocks, and the level of credit supply. Each of these effects is naturally explained with our simple formula.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["David Berger","Veronica Guerrieri","Guido Lorenzoni","Joseph Vavra"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx060","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e5df940f401b2e39","title":"Natural disasters and market manipulation","abstract":"Natural disasters exacerbate swings in investor sentiment and information asymmetry. As such, we propose natural disasters enable more frequent and severe market manipulation. We test this proposition using the securities listed in the NYSE and NASDAQ, disaster data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and surveillance industry-provided manipulation data from SMARTS, Inc. The data indicate the frequency and severity of market manipulation increases during disaster periods. Community resilience, hazard mitigation programs, and operational location moderate the effect of natural disasters on manipulation. These effects are not mechanically driven by spikes in volatility in disaster-county months. These effects are more pronounced for certain industries, including agricultural, health, and manufacturing industries. Finally, these findings are robust to alternative proxies of manipulation and various model specifications that include but are not limited to using difference-in-differences analysis.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Maimuna Akter","Douglas J. Cumming","Shan Ji"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106883","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e5eeb0d1bcc11954","title":"Is Chinese trade policy motivated by environmental concerns?","abstract":"This paper analyses whether China's export VAT rebates and export taxes are driven by environmental concerns. Since China struggles to enforce environmental regulation, trade policy can be used as a second-best environmental policy. In a general equilibrium model it is possible to show that the second-best export tax increases in a product's pollution intensity. The empirical analysis investigates whether the export tax equivalent of partial VAT rebates and export taxes are higher for products which are more pollution intensive along several dimensions. The results indicate that the VAT rebate rates are set in a way that discourages exports of water pollution intensive, SO2 intensive and energy intensive products from 2007 on. Moreover, the conservation of natural resources such as minerals, metals, wood products and precious stones seems to be a key determinant of China's export VAT rebate rates. There is little evidence that export taxes are motivated by environmental concerns.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Sabrina Eisenbarth"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","Q","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.10.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e5f02438afc17c6b","title":"What leads to measurement errors? Evidence from reports of program participation in three surveys","abstract":"Measurement errors are often a large source of bias in survey data. Lack of knowledge of the determinants of such errors makes it difficult to reduce the extent of errors when collecting data and to assess the validity of analyses using the data. We study the determinants of reporting error using high quality administrative data on government transfers linked to three major U.S. surveys. Our results support several theories of misreporting: Errors are related to event recall, forward and backward telescoping, salience of receipt, the stigma of reporting participation in welfare programs and respondent's degree of cooperation with the survey overall. We provide evidence on how survey design choices affect reporting errors. Our findings help survey users to gauge the reliability of their data and to devise estimation strategies that can correct for systematic errors, such as instrumental variable approaches. Understanding survey errors allows researchers collecting survey data to reduce them by improving survey design. Our results indicate that survey design should take into account that higher response rates as well as collecting more detailed information may have negative effects on survey accuracy.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Pablo Celhay","Bruce Meyer","Nikolas Mittag"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105581","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e60d86be4312866e","title":"The Cycle of Earnings Inequality: Evidence from Spanish Social Security Data","abstract":"We use detailed information from social security records to document the evolution of male earnings inequality and employment in Spain from 1988 to 2010. We find that inequality was strongly countercyclical: it increased around the 1993 recession, experienced a substantial decrease during the 1997–2007 expansion and then a sharp increase during the recent recession. This evolution went in parallel with the cyclicality of employment in the lower middle part of the wage distribution. Our findings highlight the importance of the housing boom and bust in this evolution, suggesting that demand shocks in the construction sector had large effects on aggregate labour market outcomes.","wordCount":103,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Stéphane Bonhomme","Laura Hospido"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12368","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e62046fc31ef4dbe","title":"Innovation and competition: The role of the product market","abstract":"We study how competition impacts innovation (and welfare) when firms compete both in the product market and in innovation development. This relationship is complex and may lead to scenarios in which a lessening of competition increases R&D and consumer welfare in the long run. We provide conditions for when competition increases or decreases industry innovation and welfare. These conditions are based on properties of the product market payoffs. Implications for applied work and policy are discussed.","wordCount":76,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Guillermo Marshall","Álvaro Parra"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.04.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e62447dc758db478","title":"Pesticide-free but not organic: Adoption of a large-scale wheat production standard in Switzerland","abstract":"The sustainable intensification of agriculture requires solutions for a large-scale reduction of pesticide use while sustaining agricultural yields. Pesticide-free production standards, which bring together the strengths of all the food value chain actors, could be a cornerstone of this transformation. In Switzerland, a non-organic, private–public standard for pesticide-free wheat production is currently being introduced by the producer organization IP-SUISSE. It is the first of its kind in Europe and may reach a market share of 50% of Swiss wheat production. We here assess the determinants of farmers' participation and willingness to participate in the future. For our analysis, we combine a survey of the entire population of IP-SUISSE wheat producers (4749 farmers, 23.3% response rate) with data on historical farm-level wheat yields, soil properties, weather, climate, weed pressure, and spread of herbicide resistance. Our results indicate that a large-scale establishment of pesticide-free wheat production in Switzerland is possible. We find that farmers' perceptions of positive environmental effects of the production program are key for adoption. Moreover, farmers' expectations of the program’s production effects play a central role. Farmers perceiving large yield losses and increases in production risks are less likely to enter the program. Based on our results, we discuss implications, leverage points, and challenges for designing and implementing large-scale pesticide-free production programs.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Niklas Möhring","Robert Finger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102188","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e62d59fef325b521","title":"Banks’ Interventions and Firms’ Innovation: Evidence from Debt Covenant Violations","abstract":"We examine the effect of banks’ interventions on corporate innovation and firms’ value via the lens of debt covenant violations. Banks’ interventions have a significantly negative effect on the quantity of innovations but no significant effect on their quality. The reduction in quantity is concentrated in innovations that are unrelated to the violating firm’s core business, which leads to a more-focused scope of investment in innovation and ultimately an increase in the firm’s value. Human capital redeployment appears to be a plausible underlying mechanism through which banks’ interventions refocus the scope of innovation and enhance a firm’s value. Our paper sheds new light on the real effect of bank financing.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Yuqi Gu","Connie X. Mao","Xuan Tian"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/696703","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e638f644c028f601","title":"Common ownership, market power, and innovation","abstract":"I examine the effects of overlapping ownership on market power when there are external effects across firms. This is done in an oligopoly model with cost-reducing innovation with technological spillovers where firms have an overlapping ownership structure based largely on López and Vives (2019). The model allows for Cournot competition with homogeneous product and for Bertrand with differentiated products as well as for strategic effects of R&D investment. It derives positive testable implications and normative results to inform policy.","wordCount":79,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Xavier Vives"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.102528","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e63aabfb10696fa0","title":"The Impacts of the Lifeline Subsidy on High-Speed Internet Access","abstract":"This paper evaluates the impacts of the Lifeline subsidy on high-speed Internet prices, demand, and welfare. Results show that low-income households would require large price reductions to subscribe to basic broadband. Simulations of competition between cable and telephone firms show that the $9.25 subsidy lowers the prices for low-quality plans and incentivizes about 6 percent of low-income households to take up high-speed Internet. When firms price discriminate by charging different prices to low- and high-income households choosing the same plan, about 25 percent of low-income households enter the market and consume high-speed Internet. When the social planner sets prices and price discriminates, 68 percent of low-income households enter the market, and more higher-speed plans are consumed.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Samara Mendez","Gábor Molnár","Scott J. Savage"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/714504","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e63b571c4f58da21","title":"Income or Consumption: Which Better Predicts Subjective Well‐Being?","abstract":"The positive relationship between income and subjective well‐being has been well documented. However, work assessing the relationship of alternative material well‐being metrics to subjective well‐being (SWB) is limited. Consistent with the permanent income hypothesis, we find that a consumption‐based measure out‐performs (surveyed) income in predicting subjective well‐being. When objective measures of consumption are combined with self‐assessments of a household’s standard of living, income becomes insignificant altogether. We obtain our result utilizing household‐level data from Statistics New Zealand’s New Zealand General Social Survey which contains measures of income, SWB and a measure of material well‐being called the Economic Living Standard Index that combines measures of consumption flows and self‐assessments of material well‐being.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Thomas Nixon Carver","Arthur Grimes"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12414","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e63f1d1fcf160db6","title":"Papal visits and abortions: evidence from Italy","abstract":"We investigate the impact of papal visits to Italian provinces on abortions from 1979 to 2012. Using administrative data, we find a 10–20% decrease in the number of abortions that commences in the 3rd month and persists until the 14th month after the visits. However, we find no significant change in the number of live births. A decline in unintended pregnancies best explains our results. Papal visits generate intense local media coverage, and likely make salient the Catholic Church’s stance against abortions. We show that papal visits lead to increased church attendance, and that the decline in abortions is greater when the Pope mentions abortion in his speeches.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Egidio Farina","Vikram Pathania"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00759-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e640c24386b93fb2","title":"Do shocks to animal spirits cause output fluctuations?","abstract":"We evaluate whether shocks to “animal spirits” affect real outcomes at business cycle frequencies, using data on consumer confidence and region‐ and state‐level coincident activity indexes in a vector autoregression (VAR) with long run restrictions. We assume that animal spirits shocks do not affect the long run level of activity. Innovations in fundamentals explain most variation in the level of activity, but animal spirits have economically significant effects at business cycle frequencies. A positive innovation in animal spirits causes real activity to rise by between 0.2 and 0.6% in the medium term, and animal spirits may explain up to about half of real fluctuations in the medium run.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Christopher Biolsi","Bocong Du"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12452","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e64fa16662d2a315","title":"The Invisible Hand of the Government: Moral Suasion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis","abstract":"Using proprietary data on banks’ monthly securities holdings, we show that during the European sovereign debt crisis, domestic banks in fiscally stressed countries were considerably more likely than foreign banks to increase their holdings of domestic sovereign bonds during months when the government needed to roll over a relatively large amount of maturing debt. This result cannot be explained by risk shifting, carry trading, or regulatory compliance. Domestic banks that received government support, are small, or with weaker balance sheets were particularly susceptible to “moral suasion,” while governance of banks played less of a role.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Steven Ongena","Alexander A. Popov","Neeltje van Horen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160377","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e65797d902852855","title":"Revenue alignment with the EU taxonomy regulation in developed markets","abstract":"This article provides first evidence on the capital market effects of the EU Taxonomy Regulation (TR). The TR introduced a new classification scheme to identify companies with environmentally sustainable economic activities. The results offer support for a significant estimated TR alignment premium, compatible with the interpretation that investors already apply the TR and allocate capital to TR-aligned companies. This effect strengthens with an increase in investor attention. We also find significant cross-sectional variation in abnormal stock returns surrounding the publication date of the TR conditional on the degree of estimated TR alignment. Traditional ESG ratings cannot explain the TR premium.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Alexander Bassen","Othar Kordsachia","Kerstin Lopatta","Weiqiang Tan"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107339","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e6605bb94e634bfa","title":"Measuring human capital in middle income countries","abstract":"This paper develops an indicator that measures the level of human capital to address the specific education and health challenges faced by middle income countries. We apply this indicator to countries in Europe and Central Asia, where productive employment requires skills that are more prevalent among higher education graduates, and where good health is associated to low levels of adult health risk factors. The Europe and Central Asia Human Capital Index (ECA-HCI) extends the World Bank's Human Capital Index by adding a measure of quality-adjusted years of higher education to the original education component, and it includes the prevalence of three adult health risk factors—obesity, smoking, and heavy drinking—as an additional proxy for latent health status. The results show that children born today in the average country in Europe and Central Asia will be almost half as productive as they would have had they reached the benchmark of complete education and full health. Countries with good basic education outcomes do not necessarily have good higher education outcomes, and high prevalence of adult health risk factors can offset good education indicators. This extension of the Human Capital Index could also be useful for assessing the state of human capital in middle-income countries in general.","wordCount":203,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt","Iván Torre"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.05.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e66fd3debf6be141","title":"Elicitation of preferences under ambiguity","abstract":"This paper is about behaviour under ambiguity—that is, a situation in which probabilities either do not exist or are not known. Our objective is to find the most empirically valid of the increasingly large number of theories attempting to explain such behaviour. We use experimentally-generated data to compare and contrast the theories. The incentivised experimental task we employed was that of allocation: in a series of problems we gave the subjects an amount of money and asked them to allocate the money over three accounts, the payoffs to them being contingent on a ‘state of the world’ with the occurrence of the states being ambiguous. We reproduced ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower. We fitted the most popular and apparently empirically valid preference functionals [Subjective Expected Utility (SEU), MaxMin Expected Utility (MEU) and α-MEU], as well as Mean-Variance (MV) and a heuristic rule, Safety First (SF). We found that SEU fits better than MV and SF and only slightly worse than MEU and α-MEU.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Enrica Carbone","Xueqi Dong","John D. Hey"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9256-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e678f033be27f5bb","title":"Covid-19, credit risk management modeling, and government support","abstract":"We investigate rating and default risk dynamics over the covid-19 crisis from a credit risk modeling perspective. We find that growth dynamics remain a stable and sufficient predictor of credit risk incidence over the pandemic period, despite its large, short-lived swings due to government intervention and lockdown. Unobserved component models as used in the recent credit risk literature appear mainly helpful for explaining the high-default wave in the early 2000s, but less so for default prediction above and beyond growth dynamics during the 2008 financial crisis or the early 2020 covid default peak. Government support variables do not reduce the impact of either growth proxies or unobserved components. Correlations between government support and credit risk are different, however, during the financial and the covid crisis. Using the empirical models in this paper as credit risk management tools, we show that growth factors also suffice to predict credit risk quantiles out-of-sample during covid times.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Sean Telg","Anna Dubinova","André Lucas"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106638","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e686a43e7905ee9b","title":"Relabeling, retirement and regret","abstract":"Can simply changing the public definition of a normal retirement age impact retirement, without any associated financial incentive changes? We study a reformulation of the retirement system in Finland that relabeled retirement ages with only modest and continuous changes in financial incentives. We find that relabeling matters: both graphical evidence and estimated hazard models reveal an enormous change in retirement when individuals face a newly defined “normal retirement” age. We also find evidence consistent with increased retirement “regret,” as the marginal workers induced to retire by relabeling are more likely to return to work.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Jonathan Gruber","Ohto Kanninen","Terhi Ravaska"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104677","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e6a63bbbf76ee36c","title":"Industry dynamics and the minimum wage: A putty‐clay approach","abstract":"We document two new findings about the industry‐level response to minimum wage hikes. First, restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike. Second, there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants. We develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty‐clay technology that is consistent with these findings. In the model, continuing restaurants cannot change employment, and thus industry‐level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor‐intensive restaurants and entry of capital‐intensive restaurants. Interestingly, the putty‐clay model matches the small estimated short‐run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies, but produces a larger long‐run disemployment effect.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Daniel Aaronson","Eric French","Isaac Sorkin","Ted To"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12262","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e6bb515983733cad","title":"Cultural Baggage: Do Immigrants Import Corruption?","abstract":"Do immigrants undermine culture in a way that destroys productivity in destination countries? Some scholars have argued that because immigrants come from countries with dysfunctional social capital—norms and institutions—they will import it and pollute the social capital in destination countries. One potential channel through which this could occur is corruption. We examine stocks and flows of immigrants over a 20‐year time period to see if corruption increased in destination countries. We generally find that immigration is not associated with increases in corruption. Additionally, we find that immigration tends to decrease corruption in destination countries with low levels of corruption or high levels of economic freedom.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Jamie Bologna Pavlik","Estefania Lujan Padilla","Benjamin Powell"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12339","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e6ccc4bdfac22146","title":"Job Polarization and Structural Change","abstract":"We document that job polarization—contrary to the consensus— has started as early as the 1950s in the United States: middle-wage workers have been losing both in terms of employment and average wage growth compared to low- and high-wage workers. Given that polarization is a long-run phenomenon and closely linked to the shift from manufacturing to services, we propose a structural change driven explanation, where we explicitly model the sectoral choice of workers. Our simple model does remarkably well not only in matching the evolution of sectoral employment, but also of relative wages over the past 50 years.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Zsófia Bárány","Christian Siegel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150258","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e7049404147ae28a","title":"How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?","abstract":"We examine the relationship between confidence in own absolute performance and risk attitudes using two confidence elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect” (underconfidence in easy tasks and overconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using non-incentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is significantly reduced, but not eliminated when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Zahra Murad","Martín Sefton","Chris Starmer"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9231-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e71aa19d15048143","title":"Personalized content, engagement, and monetization in a mobile puzzle game","abstract":"Digital technologies have reduced the cost of collecting detailed information on consumer characteristics and behavior. Despite the large literature on the consequences of using these data to personalize prices, little is known about content personalization. Using detailed player-level data from a mobile puzzle game and a novel structural model of player behavior, we investigate the effects on revenue of personalizing game difficulty using observable player characteristics. Our results show that, while average difficulty across players is successfully set by the game developer to maximize revenue, personalization can further increase revenue by 71%. Personalized difficulty leads to an overall increase in player engagement and, consequently, revenue generation in the form of in-app purchases. Although the largest relative increase in revenue comes from the smallest spenders, most of the absolute increase in revenue comes from a further increase in spending by the largest spenders.","wordCount":142,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Louis-Daniel Pape","Christian Helmers","Alessandro Iaria","Stefan Wagner","Julian Runge"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103128","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e71d2472b2dcc279","title":"Measuring and controlling for the compromise effect when estimating risk preference parameters","abstract":"The compromise effect arises when being close to the \"middle\" of a choice set makes an option more appealing. The compromise effect poses conceptual and practical problems for economic research: by influencing choices, it can bias researchers' inferences about preference parameters. To study this bias, we conduct an experiment with 550 participants who made choices over lotteries from multiple price lists (MPLs). Following prior work, we manipulate the compromise effect to influence choices by varying the middle options of each MPL. We then estimate risk preferences using a discrete-choice model without a compromise effect embedded in the model. As anticipated, the resulting risk preference parameter estimates are not robust, changing as the compromise effect is manipulated. To disentangle risk preference parameters from the compromise effect and to measure the strength of the compromise effect, we augment our discrete-choice model with additional parameters that represent a rising penalty for expressing an indifference point further from the middle of the ordered MPL. Using this method, we estimate an economically significant magnitude for the compromise effect and generate robust estimates of risk preference parameters that are no longer sensitive to compromise-effect manipulations.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Jonathan Beauchamp","Daniel J. Benjamin","David Laibson","Christopher F. Chabris"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09640-z","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e72d8fcba5c27433","title":"Do the Hamilton and Beveridge–Nelson filters provide the same information about output gaps? An empirical comparison for practitioners","abstract":"I compare the empirical performances of the recently-developed Hamilton and Beveridge–Nelson filters of nonstationary time series , using quarterly data on real gross state product in U.S. states. There is meaningful overlap between the two filters, with average correlation coefficients ranging between 0.60 and 0.97. The Hamilton filter and its more recent modification produce cycles of greater volatility and amplitude than the Beveridge–Nelson filter and appear to outperform in pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting exercises of future GSP growth and inflation (though the outperformance is not generally statistically significant). The Beveridge–Nelson filter is, however, less sensitive to realizations of new data.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Christopher Biolsi"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103496","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e734b181e4740304","title":"Stability and incentives for college admissions with budget constraints","abstract":"We study two-sided matching where one side (colleges) can make monetary transfers (offer stipends) to the other (students). Colleges have fixed budgets and strict preferences over sets of students. One different feature of our model is that colleges value money only to the extent that it allows them to enroll better or additional students. A student can attend at most one college and receive a stipend from it. Each student has preferences over college–stipend bundles. Conditions that are essential for most of the results in the literature fail in the presence of budget constraints. We define pairwise stability and show that a pairwise stable allocation always exists. We construct an algorithm that always selects a pairwise stable allocation. The rule defined through this algorithm is incentive compatible for students: no student should benefit from misrepresenting his preferences. Finally, we show that no incentive compatible rule selects a Pareto-undominated pairwise stable allocation.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Azar Abizada"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1731","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-e73e26c867726638","title":"Measuring the efficiency of health systems of OECD countries by data envelopment analysis","abstract":"This study aims to assess the efficiency of health sectors of 34 OECD countries by employing input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA) method both under constant and variable returns to scale assumptions. In the analysis, the number of doctors, number of patient beds and health expenditure per capita were used as input variables and life expectancy at birth and infant mortality rate were used as outputs. At the first stage, DEA analysis was performed for 34 countries, and at the second stage outlier 8 countries were eliminated to form a more homogeneous group and to achieve more accurate results. 11 of the 26 countries were found to have efficient health systems, and there is room for efficiency improvements in health sector in the remaining 15 countries.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Volkan Recai Çetin","Serdal Bahçe"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1139682","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e740bd396efc0824","title":"Cartel stability in experimental first-price sealed-bid and English auctions","abstract":"Using laboratory experiments, we compare the stability of bidding rings in the first-price sealed-bid auction and the English auction in a heterogeneous-value setting. In both a re-matching condition and a fixed-matching condition, we observe that bidding rings are more stable in the English auction than in the first-price sealed-bid auction. In both conditions, the first-price sealed-bid auction dominates the English auction in terms of average revenue and the revenue spread. The English auction outperforms the first-price sealed-bid auction in terms of efficiency.","wordCount":82,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Jeroen Hinloopen","Sander Onderstal","Leonard Treuren"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2020.102642","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e744bd08b09e016f","title":"The Effect of Mentoring on School Attendance and Academic Outcomes: A Randomized Evaluation of the Check & Connect Program","abstract":"In response to budget problems, many urban school systems reduced resources for getting students to come to school, such as truancy officers. Chicago, for instance, in 1991, went from 150 truancy officers down to a total of zero. Is that a good idea? In this study, we explore the effects of increased support by a pro‐social adult, or “social capital,” delivered through a structured student monitoring and mentoring program called Check & Connect (C&C). We carried out a large‐scale randomized controlled trial with C&C in partnership with the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) to students in grades 1 to 8. Program participation decreased absences in grades 5 to 7 by 4.2 days, or 22.9 percent, but had no detectable effects on students in grades 1 to 4. We also did not find statistically significant effects on learning outcomes such as test scores or GPA, or any detectable spillovers to other students within the schools where the program was administered. The modest impacts per dollar spent, compared to previous evidence on either low‐cost “nudges” or relatively intensive, higher‐cost interventions, raise the possibility that, for very disadvantaged students, there may be decreasing returns that are then followed by increasing returns to program intensity for the problem of student disengagement.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jonathan Guryan","Sandra L. Christenson","Ashley Cureton","Ijun Lai","Jens Ludwig","Catherine Schwarz","Emma Shirey","Mary Clair Turner"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22264","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e74ec9c49f75aa35","title":"Lying behavior when payoffs are shared with charity: Experimental evidence","abstract":"We investigate lying behavior when lying is undetectable and payoffs are split with charity. 524 participants roll a die in private, report the outcome, and receive the monetary equivalent of their reported number, i.e., there is a clear incentive to lie. Participants are randomly assigned to share all, some, or none of this payoff with a charity of their choice. This allows us to examine how lying behavior changes with the share of payoffs going to charity. Our results are as follows: (i) there are participants in every group who lie to inflate their reported number; (ii) overall lying behavior is significant for all groups, except that in which participants keep none of the payoff; and (iii) post-experiment surveys reveal that participants who keep the whole payoff are much less likely to admit to having cheated than all other participants. Finally, our data suggests that lying is not correlated with any observable sociodemographic characteristic.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Scott Lee Chua","Jessica Chang","Guillem Riambau"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2022.102512","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e765a67fdf98223c","title":"Endogenous sources of volatility in housing markets: The joint buyer–seller problem","abstract":"This article presents new empirical evidence that internal movement—selling one home and buying another—by existing homeowners within a metropolitan housing market is especially volatile and a substantial driver of fluctuations in transaction volume over the housing market cycle. We develop a search model that shows that the strong procyclicality of internal movement is driven by the cost of simultaneously holding two homes, which varies endogenously over the cycle. The estimated model shows that frictions related to this joint buyer–seller problem substantially amplify cyclical price volatility in housing markets.","wordCount":88,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Elliot Anenberg","Patrick Bayer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12454","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-e772eaaba9988805","title":"Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle","abstract":"Large and persistent earnings losses following displacement have adverse consequences for the individual worker and the macroeconomy. Leading models cannot explain their size and disagree on their sources. Two mean-reverting forces make earnings losses transitory in these models: search as an upward force allows workers to climb back up the job ladder, and separations as a downward force make nondisplaced workers fall down the job ladder. We show that job stability at the top rather than search frictions at the bottom is the main driver of persistent earnings losses. We provide new empirical evidence on heterogeneity in job stability and develop a life-cycle search model to explain the facts. Our model offers a quantitative reconciliation of key stylized facts about the U.S. labor market: large worker flows, a large share of stable jobs, and persistent earnings shocks. We explain the size of earnings losses by dampening the downward force. Our new explanation highlights the tight link between labor market mobility and earnings dynamics. Regarding the sources, we find that over 85% stem from the loss of a particularly good job at the top of the job ladder. We apply the model to study the effectiveness of two labor market policies, retraining and placement support, from the Dislocated Worker Program. We find that both are ineffective in reducing earnings losses in line with the program evaluation literature.","wordCount":226,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Philip Jung","Moritz Kuhn"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy014","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e78046212d649b6b","title":"Pass-through, welfare, and incidence under imperfect competition","abstract":"This paper provides a comprehensive framework to study welfare effects of multiple policy interventions and other external changes under imperfect competition with emphasis on specific and ad valorem taxation as a leading case. Specifically, in relation to tax pass-through, we provide “sufficient statistics” formulas for two welfare measures under a fairly general class of demand, production cost, and market competition. The measures are (i) marginal value of public funds (i.e., the marginal change in consumer and producer surplus relative to an increase in the net cost to the government), and (ii) incidence (i.e., the ratio of a marginal change in consumer surplus to a marginal change in producer surplus). We begin with the case of symmetric firms facing both unit and ad valorem taxes to derive a simple and empirically relevant set of formulas. Then, we provide a substantial generalization of these results to encompass firm heterogeneity by using the idea of tax revenue that is specified as a general function parameterized by a vector of policy instruments including government and non-government interventions and costs other than taxation.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Takanori Adachi","Michal Fabinger"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104589","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e78d36f5513922ae","title":"The missing rich households and wealth polarization in 21st century China","abstract":"This study investigates the evolution of wealth polarization throughout the 21st century, using data from the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) and the Top Incomes in China (TIC) database. Our findings reveal a significant increase in polarization from 2002 to 2013, followed by a period of stabilization and signs of moderation by 2018. Decomposing polarization into alienation and identification, we observe that alienation (between group inequality) continues to rise from 2002 to 2018, while identification (within group cohesion) increases until 2013 but declines thereafter. The underrepresentation of rich households leads to an underestimation of alienation and an overestimation of identification. While these counterbalancing effects contribute to higher polarization levels, they do not alter the trend during the period. However, as the mitigating effect on identification diminishes and the growing effect on alienation intensifies, it suggests potential challenges in accurately tracking future changes in wealth polarization using survey data.","wordCount":148,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yangcheng Yu","Shi Li","Qinghai Li"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102533","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e78e81d3e92fbd20","title":"Political cycles in public expenditure: butter vs guns","abstract":"This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, how governments may use the tradeoff between social and military expenditure to advance their electoral and partisan objectives. Three key results emerge. First, governments tend to bias outlays towards social expenditure and away from military expenditure at election times. Second, the size of this tradeoff is larger when we exclude countries involved in conflict, where national security plays an important role on voter choice. Third, while certain categories of social expenditure are higher during left administrations, military expenditure is higher during right administrations.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Vincenzo Bove","Georgios Efthyvoulou","Antonio Navas"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2016.03.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e79207db95137133","title":"From exports to value added to income: Accounting for bilateral income transfers","abstract":"The existence of multinational firms and the rise of global value chains raise the question how international trade contributes to a country's income. Ownership relations between, for example, headquarters and subsidiaries result in international income transfers. These transfers are ignored in standard trade data. Taking them into account in a global input-output analysis allows us to assess how much income is generated in one country due to the consumption of final products in another country. This provides a new perspective compared to the concept of value-added exports introduced by Johnson and Noguera (2012). For the US, we find that the income generated by foreign consumption is 51% higher than the value added in the US that is generated by foreign consumption. Similar findings hold for other countries as well, but to a lesser extent. The implication is that the current account deficit of the US almost disappears from the income perspective.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Timon Bohn","Steven Brakman","Erik Dietzenbacher"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103496","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e793281023d52007","title":"The Number, Size, and Distribution of Farms, Smallholder Farms, and Family Farms Worldwide","abstract":"Numerous sources provide evidence of trends and patterns in average farm size and farmland distribution worldwide, but they often lack documentation, are in some cases out of date, and do not provide comprehensive global and comparative regional estimates. This article uses agricultural census data (provided at the country level in Web Appendix) to show that there are more than 570 million farms worldwide, most of which are small and family-operated. It shows that small farms (less than 2ha) operate about 12% and family farms about 75% of the world’s agricultural land. It shows that average farm size decreased in most low- and lower-middle-income countries for which data are available from 1960 to 2000, whereas average farm sizes increased from 1960 to 2000 in some upper-middle-income countries and in nearly all high-income countries for which we have information.","wordCount":137,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Sarah K. Lowder","Jakob Skoet","Terri Raney"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.041","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e795a6bd91f4dbe0","title":"Climate Policy and Innovation: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis","abstract":"A carbon tax can induce innovation in green technologies. I evaluate the quantitative impact of this channel in a dynamic, general equilibrium model with endogenous innovation in fossil, green, and nonenergy inputs. I discipline the parameters using evidence from historical oil shocks, after which both energy prices and energy innovation increased substantially. I find that a carbon tax induces large changes in innovation. This innovation response increases the effectiveness of the policy at reducing emissions, resulting in a 19.2 percent decrease in the size of the carbon tax required to reduce emissions by 30 percent in 20 years.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Stephie Fried"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150289","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e7a0020619031cef","title":"Bank funding strategy after the bail-in announcement","abstract":"Euro area countries have recently moved to a new centralized bail-in framework by removing implicit public guarantees. Our paper analyzes banks' funding strategies after the bail-in proposal. We show that Euro area banks relied more on cheaper and better protected sources of funding, such as deposits, and reduced fund collection from sources with weaker creditor protection, such as bonds.","wordCount":59,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Franco Fiordelisi","Giulia Scardozzi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102215","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e7a05a4b14946a81","title":"Helping families help themselves: The (Un)intended impacts of a digital parenting program","abstract":"Parenting practices play a crucial role in child development. We evaluate the impact of a free digital stress management and positive parenting intervention designed to improve caregiver’s mental health and positive caregiver-child interactions in El Salvador. Drawing on the prior success of in-person interventions, we study the effects of digital intervention delivery and examine differential treatment effects by caregiver’s sex. Using an individual-level experiment, we find that the intervention increased stress and anxiety and lowered caregiver-child interactions among male caregivers. In contrast, among female caregivers, we did not detect changes in mental health and observed a decrease in the use of physical violence against children. We also find that family structure and the severity of economic deprivation greatly moderated the intervention’s impact, especially among male caregivers. Our findings indicate that one-size-fits-all digital parenting interventions may not serve all caregivers effectively, emphasizing the need for thorough evaluations prior to extensive implementation.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Sofia Amaral","Lelys Dinarte-Diaz","Patricio Domínguez","Santiago M. Perez‐Vincent"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103181","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e7a52823f90beb0d","title":"Intermediation and price volatility","abstract":"This paper analyzes the role of intermediaries in providing immediacy in fast markets. Fast markets are modelled as contests with the possibility of multiple winners where the probability of casting the best quote depends on prior technology investments. Depending on the market design, equilibrium pricing by intermediaries involves a trade-off, between monopolistic price distortion and excess volatility. Since equilibrium at the pricing stage generates an externality, investments into faster trading technologies are necessarily asymmetric in equilibrium, akin to markets with vertical product differentiation. Further, equilibrium is not necessarily efficient, since it is possible that a high-cost intermediary ends up investing excessively and thus trades more frequently than low-cost rivals.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Thomas Gehrig","Klaus Ritzberger"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105442","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e7bb0d0ea3719b23","title":"Commuting, gender and children","abstract":"We demonstrate that women with children are much more likely to leave their job when they have a long commute, which is not true for men. Interpreting these results through the lens of a dynamic search model, we demonstrate that commuting costs increase substantially for women after they have children. For women with children, a 12 kilometer increase in commuting distance induces costs equivalent to about 20% of their wage.","wordCount":70,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Malte Borghorst","Ismir Mulalic","Jos van Ommeren"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103709","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e7c022552f37c167","title":"The Elasticity of Substitution Between Capital and Labour in the US Economy: A Meta‐Regression Analysis","abstract":"Despite extensive research, there is no agreement on the value of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour at the aggregate or the industrial level. Utilizing 2,419 estimates from 77 studies published between 1961 and 2017, this paper provides the first meta‐regression analysis for the US economy. We show that the heterogeneity in previously reported estimates is driven primarily by modelling decisions for technological dynamics. Throughout the analysis, the hypothesis of a Cobb–Douglas production function is rejected. Based on our meta‐regression sample, we estimate a long‐run meta‐elasticity for the aggregate economy in the range of 0.45–0.87. Most industrial estimates do not deviate significantly from the estimate for the aggregate economy.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Michael Knoblach","Martin Roessler","Patrick Zwerschke"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12312","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e7c507c979349830","title":"Propagation of shocks in an input-output economy: Evidence from disaggregated prices","abstract":"The production network contributed to the 2021–2022 inflation significantly. Using disaggregated industry-level data, this paper empirically evaluates predictions for the cross-sectional price change distribution made by input-output models with sticky prices . The response of prices to shocks is found to be consistent with the price sensitivities predicted by the input-output model. Moreover, moments of the sectoral price change distribution vary over time in response to the evolution of the network structure. Finally, through a quantitative analysis, demand and supply shocks are disentangled during the pandemic period. Counterfactual analyses show that sectoral supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and the production network structure contributed significantly to the inflation surge in 2021–2022.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Shaowen Luo","Daniel Villar"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e7c721cdc53c99f4","title":"Undue Burden Beyond Texas: An Analysis of Abortion Clinic Closures, Births, and Abortions in Wisconsin","abstract":"In this paper, we estimate the impacts of abortion clinic closures on access to clinics in terms of distance and congestion, abortion rates, and birth rates. Between 2010 and 2017, Wisconsin passed three laws regulating abortion providers and two of five abortion clinics closed in Wisconsin, increasing the distance to the nearest clinic to 55 miles on average and to over 100 miles in the most affected counties. We use a difference‐in‐differences design to estimate the effect of changes in travel distance on births and abortions, using within‐county variation across time in distance to identify the effect. We find that a 100‐mile increase in distance to the nearest clinic is associated with 30.7 percent fewer abortions and 3.2 percent more births. We see no significant effect of increased congestion at remaining clinics on abortion rates. Interacting the legislative changes with distance, we find that the effects of distance on abortion are approximately 1.33 time stronger in the presence of laws requiring multiple physician visits to obtain an abortion. Our results suggest that even small numbers of clinic closures can result in significant restrictions to abortion access of similar magnitude to those seen in Texas where a greater number of clinics ceased operations.","wordCount":202,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Joanna Venator","Jason M. Fletcher"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22263","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e7f0005e407ec452","title":"Overcoming coordination failure in games with focal points: An experimental investigation","abstract":"We experimentally test whether increasing the salience of payoff-irrelevant focal points (Schelling, 1960) can counteract the negative impact of conflicts of interest on coordination. The intuition is that, in the presence of conflict, the solution to the coordination dilemma offered by the focal point loses importance. Increasing its salience increases its relevance and, therefore, coordination success. When we vary label salience between subjects, we find support for this conjecture in games with a constant degree of conflict, similar to battle of the sexes games, but not in games that feature outcomes with different degrees of payoff inequality and efficiency. In an additional experiment in which we vary label salience within subjects, choices are found not to be affected by our salience manipulation. Yet, the proportion of choices consistent with the focal point is significantly greater than that in the between-subject design.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["David Rojo Arjona","Stefania Sitzia","Jiwei Zheng"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.10.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e80787530a136e0e","title":"Empirical behaviour of Anselin et al.’s locally robust LM tests for spatial dependence in a panel data setting","abstract":"A key issue in spatial models is to appropriately specify the spatial effect. Robust Lagrange Multipliers (RLM) tests have long been popular in spatial econometrics for discriminating between spatial lag and spatial error processes. A review of the recent applied literature shows how they are often (mis)applied in a panel context, where further issues arise the tests were not designed to address in the first place: individual or time heterogeneity and time persistence. We address the performance of RLM tests in spatial panels through Monte Carlo simulation showing that they can become virtually useless as a specification device under substantial individual and especially time heterogeneity, regardless whether correlated or not; or in the presence of spatially lagged regressors. Accounting for unobserved effects by demeaning the data or adding dummies restores the good properties of the RLM. The presence of spatially lagged regressors remains instead problematic. We conclude with suggestions for improving applied practice.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Giovanni Millo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104106","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e824b922a655491a","title":"Learning to accept welfare-enhancing policies: an experimental investigation of congestion pricing","abstract":"Welfare-enhancing policies such as congestion pricing are argued to improve efficiency in situations with externalities. Unfamiliarity and lack of any personal experience with such policies, however, can hinder their implementation; particularly the ex-ante uncertainties of incidences of gains and losses as well as debates regarding equity concerns and how to recycle revenues often stymies implementation. This paper employs a laboratory experiment with heterogeneous users to investigate the effectiveness and acceptability of a toll in a six-player-two-route congestion game. To measure acceptability and how it is affected by experience with the toll, we conduct referenda before, during, and after subjects experience a congestion problem and a toll. The experiment employs a 2 × 2 design that varies two treatments: the rate of revenue reallocation and the level of information before the final vote. After an experiential learning phase, congestion pricing is found to curb congestion effectively, and although some subjects do not vote in their monetary self-interest initially, the majority does so after experiencing the congestion pricing policy. Data on worldviews and beliefs are collected and matched to voting behavior to examine the evolution of how experience determines acceptability. Some worldviews and beliefs can predict voting behavior and the timing of when an individual finds a toll (un)acceptable.","wordCount":207,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Nicholas Janusch","Stephan Kroll","Christopher Goemans","Todd L. Cherry","Steffen Kallbekken"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09650-2","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e838c22c5986ae10","title":"Phillips Lecture – Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises","abstract":"Analysis based on a new measure of financial distress for 24 advanced economies in the postwar period shows substantial variation in the aftermath of financial crises. This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy plays in explaining this variation. We find that the degree of monetary and fiscal policy space prior to financial distress—that is, whether the policy interest rate is above the zero lower bound and whether the debt‐to‐ GDP ratio is relatively low—greatly affects the aftermath of crises. The decline in output following a crisis is less than 1% when a country possesses both types of policy space, but almost 10% when it has neither. The difference is highly statistically significant and robust to the measures of policy space and the sample. We also consider the mechanisms by which policy space matters. We find that monetary and fiscal policy are used more aggressively when policy space is ample. Financial distress itself is also less persistent when there is policy space. The findings may have implications for policy during both normal times and periods of acute financial distress.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Christina Romer","David Romer"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12258","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e83c47952cdbc58e","title":"The re‐emerging suicide crisis in the U.S.: Patterns, causes and solutions","abstract":"The suicide rate in the United States has risen nearly 40% since 2000. This increase is puzzling because suicide rates had been falling for decades at the end of the 20th century. In this paper, we review important facts about the changing rate of suicide. General trends do not tell the story of important differences across groups—suicide rates rose substantially among middle‐aged persons between 2005 and 2015 but have fallen since. Among young people, suicide rates began a rapid rise after 2010 that has not abated. We review empirical evidence to assess potential causes for recent changes in suicide rates. The economic hardship caused by the Great Recession played an important role in rising suicide among prime‐aged Americans. Among those under 25, nearly all the increase in suicide mortality during the 2010s can be explained by an increase in the prevalence of depression. Bullying victimization of LGBTQ youth could also account for part of the rise in suicide. The evidence that access to firearms or opioids are major drivers of recent suicide trends is less clear. We end by summarizing evidence on the most promising policies to reduce suicide mortality.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Dave E. Marcotte","Benjamin Hansen"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22526","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e83e2b1a16d96295","title":"Credit Risk in the Euro Area","abstract":"We construct credit risk indicators for euro area banks and non‐financial corporations. These indicators reveal that the financial crisis of 2008 dramatically increased the cost of market funding for both banks and non‐financial firms. In contrast, the prior recession following the 2000 US dot‐com bust led to widening credit spreads of non‐financial firms but had no effect on the credit spreads of financial firms. The 2008 financial crisis also led to a systematic divergence in credit spreads for financial firms across national boundaries. Credit spreads provide substantial predictive content for real activity and lending measures for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries.","wordCount":106,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Simon Gilchrist","Benoı̂t Mojon"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12427","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e84d4279afdd9982","title":"Screening in Contract Design: Evidence from the ACA Health Insurance Exchanges","abstract":"We study insurers' use of prescription drug formularies to screen consumers in the ACA Health Insurance exchanges. We begin by showing that exchange risk adjustment and reinsurance succeed in neutralizing selection incentives for most, but not all, consumer types. A minority of consumers, identifiable by demand for particular classes of prescription drugs, are predictably unprofitable. We then show that contract features relating to these drugs are distorted in a manner consistent with multidimensional screening. The empirical findings support a long theoretical literature examining how insurance contracts offered in equilibrium can fail to optimally trade off risk protection and moral hazard.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Michael Geruso","Timothy Layton","Dániel Prinz"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170014","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e850c6a00d134b96","title":"Estimation of panel group structure models with structural breaks in group memberships and coefficients","abstract":"This paper considers linear panel data models with a grouped pattern of heterogeneity when the latent group membership structure and/or the values of slope coefficients change at a break point. We propose a least squares approach to jointly estimate the break point, group membership structure, and coefficients. The proposed estimators are consistent, and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is identical to that under known break point and group structure even when the cross-sectional sample size is much larger than the length of time series. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example illustrate the use of the approach and associated inference.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Robin L. Lumsdaine","Ryo Okui","Wendun Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.01.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e852a9267096d36e","title":"School Starting Age and Cognitive Development","abstract":"We present evidence of a positive relationship between school starting age and children's cognitive development from ages 6 to 18 using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and large‐scale population‐level birth and school data from the state of Florida. We estimate effects of being old for grade (being born in September vs. August) that are remarkably stable—always around 0.2 SD difference in test scores—across a wide range of heterogeneous groups, based on maternal education, poverty at birth, race/ethnicity, birth weight, gestational age, and school quality. While the September‐August difference in kindergarten readiness is dramatically different by subgroup, by the time students take their first exams, the heterogeneity in estimated effects on test scores effectively disappears. We do, however, find significant heterogeneity in other outcome measures such as disability status and middle and high school course selections. We also document substantial variation in compensatory behaviors targeted towards young‐for‐grade children. While the more affluent families tend to redshirt their children, young‐for‐grade children from less affluent families are more likely to be retained in grades prior to testing. School district practices regarding retention and redshirting are correlated with improved outcomes for the groups less likely to use those remediation approaches (i.e., retention in the case of more affluent families and redshirting in the case of less affluent families.) Finally, we find that very few school policies or practices mitigate the test score advantage of September‐born children.","wordCount":232,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Elizabeth Dhuey","David Figlio","Krzysztof Karbownik","Jeffrey Roth"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22135","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e866f0d6540347e3","title":"Do CEOs Matter? Evidence from Hospitalization Events","abstract":"Using variation in firms’ exposure to their CEOs resulting from hospitalization, we estimate the effect of chief executive officers (CEOs) on firm policies, holding firm‐CEO matches constant. We document three main findings. First, CEOs have a significant effect on profitability and investment. Second, CEO effects are larger for younger CEOs, in growing and family‐controlled firms, and in human‐capital‐intensive industries. Third, CEOs are unique: the hospitalization of other senior executives does not have similar effects on the performance. Overall, our findings demonstrate that CEOs are a key driver of firm performance, which suggests that CEO contingency plans are valuable.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Morten Bennedsen","Francisco Pérez‐González","Daniel Wolfenzon"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12897","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e866ffc24d7bc467","title":"Lying Aversion and the Size of the Lie","abstract":"This paper studies lying. An agent randomly picks a number from a known distribution. She can then report any number and receive a monetary payoff based only on her report. The paper presents a model of lying costs that generates hypotheses regarding behavior. In an experiment, we find that the highest fraction of lies is from reporting the maximal outcome, but some participants do not make the maximal lie. More participants lie partially when the experimenter cannot observe their outcomes than when the experimenter can verify the observed outcome. Partial lying increases when the prior probability of the highest outcome decreases.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Uri Gneezy","Agne Kajackaite","Joel Sobel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161553","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e8675eb2f85fefc4","title":"Learning More with Every Year: School Year Productivity and International Learning Divergence","abstract":"I use unique child-level panel data from Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam, four developing countries with widely differing levels of student achievement, to study the extent to which differences in the productivity of primary schooling can explain international differences in human capital. I document, using identical tests of quantitative skills across countries, that although some cross-sectional gaps in test scores between these countries are evident at preschool ages, these grow substantially in the first 2–3 years of schooling. By the age of 8 years, differences are particularly stark between Vietnam and the other three countries. Using value-added models, and a regression-discontinuity design based on enrolment guidelines, I show that the causal effect of an extra grade of schooling on test scores is substantially higher in Vietnam by 0.25–0.4 standard deviations compared to the other countries. This differential productivity of a school year accounts for most of the cross-country achievement gap at 8 years of age. Equalizing the exposure to and the productivity of schooling closes the gap with Vietnam almost entirely for Peru and India and by ∼60% for Ethiopian students enrolled.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Abhijeet Singh"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz033","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8679a6c204e66bd","title":"When Do Covariates Matter? And Which Ones, and How Much?","abstract":"Authors often add covariates to a base model sequentially either to test a particular coefficient’s “robustness” or to account for the “effects” on this coefficient of adding covariates. This is problematic, due to sequence sensitivity when added covariates are intercorrelated. Using the omitted variables bias formula, I construct a conditional decomposition that accounts for various covariates’ role in moving base regressors’ coefficients. I also provide a consistent covariance formula. I illustrate this conditional decomposition with NLSY data in an application that exhibits sequence sensitivity. Related extensions include instrumental variables, the fact that my decomposition nests the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, and a Hausman test result.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jonah B. Gelbach"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/683668","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e872b70fdde8bf5d","title":"Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations","abstract":"Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. The weights consumers assign to price changes depend on the frequency of purchase, rather than expenditure share, and positive price changes loom larger than negative price changes. Prices of goods offered in the same store but not purchased do not affect inflation expectations, nor do other dimensions. Our results provide empirical guidance for models of expectations formation with heterogeneous consumers.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Francesco D’Acunto","Ulrike Malmendier","Juan Ospina","Michael Weber"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713192","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8738021005b25ba","title":"The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households","abstract":"This paper examines heterogeneity in household income and consumption responses to unemployment, using granular administrative tax data from Norway. On average, unemployment results in a significant, lasting income reduction, accompanied by a decrease in consumption expenditures of between one-third to one-half of the income loss. We find that households with greater liquid assets at the outset experience less of a decline in consumption, whereas those with higher levels of debt encounter a more substantial decrease. Notably, also the interaction of liquid assets and debt holdings matters for the consumption response. While households with larger initial liquid asset holdings on average respond less, the analyses show that this is not the case among households that simultaneously hold substantial amounts of debt, thus adding to a more nuanced view of the importance of household heterogeneity for economic outcomes. Furthermore, our investigation into heterogeneity across family composition and child age uncovers distinct patterns in consumption responses, highlighting the varied impacts of unemployment. Lastly, we find that spending patterns, as indicated by the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), become more pronounced during recessions.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Andreas Fagereng","Helene Onshuus","Kjersti Næss Torstensen"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103578","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e879d7103aa1fe29","title":"Process fairness, outcome fairness, and dynamic consistency: Experimental evidence for risk and ambiguity","abstract":"Literature on fairness preferences distinguishes between outcome fairness, concerning the final allocation of payoffs, and process fairness, concerning the expected allocation of payoffs. It is not obvious, however, whether process fairness can consistently be implemented. Once uncertainty is resolved and outcomes are determined, the ex-ante procedurally fair decision maker may become consequentialist ex-post, and reconsider her choice on the basis of the observed outcomes. We present experimental evidence on dynamic consistency of social preferences under both known risk and ambiguity. A significant share of people subscribe to process fairness both before and after the resolution of uncertainty.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Stefan T. Trautmann","Gijs van de Kuilen"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9249-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e87c94b40bc56588","title":"A National‐Level Informational Experiment to Promote Enrollment in Selective Colleges","abstract":"Prior research finds that low‐income students are less likely to apply to and enroll in four‐year colleges or more selective colleges, even after controlling for academic preparation and other background characteristics. The College Board sought to reduce barriers in the college application process through a targeted campaign of brochures and e‐mails. These materials were sent to students two to three times between the end of eleventh grade and the middle of twelfth grade, and aimed to provide an impetus to start the college search process, minimize the costs of aggregating data, and encourage a broader college application portfolio. Some students were offered additional encouragements, such as text message reminders or college application fee waivers. In a randomized control trial with 785,000 low‐ and middle‐income students in the top 50 percent of the PSAT and SAT distributions, we find no changes in college enrollment patterns.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Oded Gurantz","Jessica Howell","Michael Hurwitz","Cassandra Larson","Matea Pender","Brooke White"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22262","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8801cf53599de0e","title":"The impact of hydrogeological events on firms: Evidence from Italy","abstract":"Using a novel dataset of natural disasters affecting Italy from 2010 onward, we investigate the impact of hundreds of hydrogeological events on firms’ survival and performance. Despite being less extreme, these events are increasingly frequent and geographically widespread, this constituting a relevant but unexplored topic in the natural disasters literature. In order to assess the impact of multiple events occurred over several years, we implement a staggered difference-in-differences design that exploits the variation in the timing of the treatment. Our results show that hit firms have a 7.3% higher probability of exiting the market. Conditional on surviving, in the three years after the calamity, firms experience an average decline in their revenues and employment by −4.9% and −2.2%, respectively. These impacts are highest for micro-small, younger and low-tech firms.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Stefano Clò","Francesco David","Samuele Segoni"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102942","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e880951c2b542c62","title":"Cross-border shopping: Evidence and welfare implications for Switzerland","abstract":"Consumers access foreign goods by purchasing them domestically or shopping abroad. We present new facts on cross-border shopping by Swiss households showing, for example, that prices of identical products are lower in neighboring countries, cross-border shopping shares fall with distance to the border, and price gaps and cross-border shopping shares rose following the 2015 Swiss Franc appreciation. We use a simple model of cross-border shopping to quantify how variation across space in cross-border shopping results in heterogeneous changes in cost-of-living in response to changes in international prices such as the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation and the 2020 Covid-19-related closing of the border.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Ariel Burstein","Sarah M. Lein","Jonathan Vogel"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e890a0bd2dd252d9","title":"The minimum wage and the wage distribution in Portugal","abstract":"Raising the minimum wage can reshape the wage distribution. Using a semiparametric approach, counterfactual decomposition methods, and an extremely rich administrative dataset of all employees in Portugal, this paper presents significant visual and quantitative evidence of how changes in the minimum wage shaped the country’s wage distribution over the last thirty years. For most of this period, the importance of the minimum wage was decreasing. However, a sustained rise since 2006 coincided with a decline in wage inequality that was comparable to the United States’ total increase in inequality over the last five decades. This remarkable compression of the wage distribution can be fully accounted for by the rising minimum wage. While a minority of workers were directly covered by the minimum wage, spillover effects were observed up to the 54th percentile of the wage distribution, explaining more than half of its inequality-reducing effect. Portugal experienced modest wage growth between 2006 and 2019 but 38% of it can be associated to the increasing minimum wage.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Carlos Oliveira"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102459","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e8960b766e4c41eb","title":"School choice with independent versus consolidated districts","abstract":"This paper studies the welfare effects of school district consolidation. Using incomplete rank-ordered lists (ROLs) submitted for admission to the Hungarian secondary school system, we estimate complete ROLs assuming that parents do not use dominated strategies and that the matching outcome is stable. These estimates aid in constructing a counterfactual district-based assignment and discerning the factors driving parents' preferences over schools. We find that district consolidation leads to large welfare gains in Budapest, equivalent to students attending a school five kilometres closer to their residences. These gains offset the additional travel distances incurred in the consolidated assignment. 73% of matched students benefit from district consolidation, while fewer than 3% are assigned to a less preferred school. Students from smaller and less under-demanded districts benefit relatively more, as well as those with high academic ability. Using reported preferences instead of estimated ones also yields large gains from district consolidation.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Thilo Klein","Robert Aue","Josué Ortega"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.07.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e8ac6f79bdc0d767","title":"Choice under uncertainty and cognitive load","abstract":"Does exposure to cognitive load affect key properties of economic behavior? In this experiment, subjects face a series of simple binary decision tasks between prospects, testing for monotonicity in monetary payments, consistency with (first-order) stochastic dominance, reduction of compound lotteries, risk attitudes, and ambiguity attitudes. Cognitive load is manipulated via simultaneous memory tasks. Our data show treatment differences resulting from cognitive load for decision tasks with risky outcomes. However, cognitive load has no impact on monotonicity and ambiguity attitudes. Under a dual-process view of human decision-making, our findings suggest that ambiguity attitudes and preferences for “more certain money” are intuitive, not reasoned.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Adam Dominiak","Peter Duersch"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09426-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e8b73e1404fab8a9","title":"Housing and Health","abstract":"Deprived housing is recognized as a source of poor health, but there is still little evidence of a causal relationship between housing and health. While existing literature identifies neighborhood effects and the individual dwelling as factors which affect health, it does not offer a joint examination of these factors. Moreover, endogeneity is a concern in analyses of both problems. Thus far, studies addressing endogeneity have done so through experimental design or instrumental variables. The first approach suffers from problems of external validity and the latter from the lack of reliable instruments. We therefore adopt an alternative strategy which considers both sources of endogeneity in order to identify the effects of housing on health by estimating fixed‐effect models. We reveal how housing problems affect health depending on living conditions and socioeconomic status. Our results therefore indicate that living in poor housing is an important short‐term socioeconomic determinant that directly affects health.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Stefan Angel","Benjamin Bittschi"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12341","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8cc450709fca239","title":"Gender Differences in Willingness to Compete: The Role of Culture and Institutions","abstract":"Our Beijing‐based laboratory experiment investigated gender differences in competitive choices across different birth‐cohorts experiencing – during their crucial developmental‐age – different institutions and social norms. To control for general time trends, we use Taipei counterpart subjects with identical original Confucian traditions. Our findings confirm that exposure to different institutions/norms during crucial developmental‐ages significantly changes individuals’ behaviour. In particular, Beijing females growing up during the communist regime are more competitively inclined than their male counterparts; their female counterparts growing up during the market regime; and Taipei females. For Taipei, there are no statistically significant cohort or gender differences in willingness to compete.","wordCount":101,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Alison Booth","Elliott Fan","Xin Meng","Dandan Zhang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12583","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8d16d0dd519bb4e","title":"Stabilization vs. Redistribution: The optimal monetary–fiscal mix","abstract":"Stabilization and redistribution are intertwined in a model with heterogeneity, imperfect insurance, and nominal rigidity---making fiscal and monetary policy inextricably linked. Changes in government spending that are associated with changes in the distribution of taxes (progressive vs. regressive) induce a tradeoff for monetary policy: the central bank cannot stabilize real activity at its efficient level (including insurance) and simultaneously avoid inflation. Fiscal policy can be used in conjunction to monetary policy to strike the optimal balance between stabilization and insurance (redistribution) motives.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Florin Bilbiie","Tommaso Monacelli","Roberto Perotti"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103623","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e8dffd4fbeae41f2","title":"Inflation Targets and the Zero Lower Bound in a Behavioural Macroeconomic Model","abstract":"We analyse the relationship between the level of the inflation target and the zero lower bound imposed on the nominal interest rate in the framework of a behavioural New‐Keynesian macroeconomic model in which agents, experiencing cognitive limitations, use adaptive learning forecasting rules. The model produces endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (animal spirits) that lead to non‐normal distributions of the output gap. We find that when the inflation target is too close to zero, the economy can get gripped by ‘chronic pessimism’ that leads to a dominance of negative output gaps and recessions, and in turn feeds back on expectations producing long waves of pessimism. Low inflation targets create the risk of persistence of recessions and low growth. In conclusion, our framework suggests that the 2% inflation target, now pursued by many central banks, is too low.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Paul De Grauwe","Yuemei Ji"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12261","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8e0193b11e3c6b4","title":"Screening green innovation through carbon pricing","abstract":"Effective climate change mitigation requires green innovation, but not all projects have equal social value. We examine the role of innovation heterogeneity in a model where the policy maker cannot observe innovation quality and directly subsidize the socially most valuable green innovations. We find that carbon pricing works as an innovation screening device; this creates a premium on the optimal carbon price, raising it above the Pigouvian level. We identify conditions for perfect screening and generalize results to screening policies under alternative intellectual property regimes and complementary policies. A calibration reveals that screening can justify a carbon price that is up to three times the Pigouvian price.","wordCount":107,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Lassi Ahlvik","Inge van den Bijgaart"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102932","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e8e3a4c87f6d9ec6","title":"The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions","abstract":"We document persistent gender gaps favoring females in jury convictions and judges’ sentences in nearly 200 years of London trials, which are unexplained by case characteristics. We find that three sharp changes in punishment severity locally affected the size and nature of the gaps but were generally not strong enough to offset their persistence. These local effects suggest a mechanism of preference-based discrimination (paternalism) in which the all-male judiciary protected females from the harshest available punishment.","wordCount":76,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Anna Bindler","Randi Hjalmarsson"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/707482","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8e3f3b1f235c136","title":"Using machine learning for communication classification","abstract":"The present study explores the value of machine learning techniques in the classification of communication content in experiments. Previously human-coded datasets are used to both train and test algorithm-generated models that relate word counts to categories. For various games, the computer models of the classification are able to match out-of-sample the human classification to a considerable extent. The analysis raises hope that the substantial effort going into such studies can be reduced by using computer algorithms for classification. This would enable a quick and replicable analysis of large-scale datasets at reasonable costs and widen the applicability of such approaches. The paper gives an easily accessible technical introduction into the computational method.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Stefan P. Penczynski"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-09600-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e8e69570a193c641","title":"A measurement of decreasing impatience for health and money","abstract":"This paper measures deviations from constant discounting and compares these deviations for health and money. Our measurements make no assumptions about utility and do not require separability of preferences over time. In an experiment, most subjects were decreasingly impatient, but a substantial minority was increasingly impatient. The deviations from constant discounting were more pronounced for health than for money suggesting that time preferences are domain-specific. Hyperbolic discounting (Loewenstein and Prelec, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 573–597, 1992) and proportional discounting (Mazur, Quantitative Analyses of Behavior, 5, 55–73, 1987) best described time preferences. Quasi-hyperbolic discounting, the most popular model to accommodate deviations from constant discounting, was rejected for both health and money.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Han Bleichrodt","Yu Gao","Kirsten I. M. Rohde"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-016-9240-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e8e8d295e794bf84","title":"Inequality of Opportunity and Economic Growth: How Much Can Cross‐Country Regressions Really Tell Us?","abstract":"Income differences arise from many sources. While some kinds of inequality, caused by differential rewards to effort, might be associated with faster economic growth, other kinds, arising from unequal opportunities for investment, might be detrimental to economic progress. This study uses two new datasets, consisting of 117 income and expenditure household surveys and 134 Demographic and Health Surveys, to revisit the relationship between total inequality and economic growth. In particular, we ask whether inequality of opportunity, driven by circumstances at birth, has a negative effect on subsequent growth. Using the income and expenditure micro dataset, we find that while both total income inequality and inequality of opportunity are negatively associated with growth, the coefficient estimates are insignificant. The evidence is similarly equivocal using the Demographic and Health Surveys data. On balance, the data do not provide support for the hypothesis that inequality of opportunity is bad for growth.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Francisco H. G. Ferreira","Christoph Lakner","María Ana Lugo","Berk Özler"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12311","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e8eeb8cbb939ce16","title":"Culture, Work Attitudes, and Job Search: Evidence from the Swiss Language Border","abstract":"Unemployment varies across space and in time. Can attitudes toward work explain some of these differences? We study job search durations along the Swiss language border, sharply separating Romance language speakers from German speakers. According to surveys and voting results, the language border separates two social groups with different cultural background and attitudes toward work. Despite similar local labor markets and identical institutions, Romance language speakers search for work almost seven weeks (or 22%) longer than their German speaking neighbors. This is a quantitatively large effect, comparable to a large change in unemployment insurance generosity.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Beatrix Eugster","Rafael Lalive","Andreas Steinhauer","Josef Zweimüller"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","E","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw024","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e8f08063772e54a6","title":"The power of the collective empowers women: Evidence from self-help groups in India","abstract":"Women’s groups are important rural social and financial institutions in South Asia. In India, a large majority of women’s groups programs are implemented through self-help groups (SHGs). Originally designed as savings and credit groups, the role of SHGs has expanded to include creating health and nutrition awareness, improving governance, and addressing social issues related to gender- and caste-based discrimination. This paper uses panel data from 1470 rural Indian women from five states to study the impact of SHG membership on women’s empowerment in agriculture, using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) and the abbreviated Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (A-WEAI). Because SHG membership was not randomized and women who self-select to be SHG members may be systematically different from non-members, we employ nearest neighbor matching methods to attribute the impact of SHG membership on women’s empowerment in agriculture and intrahousehold inequality. Our findings suggest that SHG membership has a significant positive impact on aggregate measures of women’s empowerment and reduces the gap between men’s and women’s empowerment scores. This improvement in aggregate empowerment is driven by improvements in women’s scores, not a deterioration in men’s. Greater control over income, greater decisionmaking over credit, and (somewhat mechanistically, given the treatment) greater and more active involvement in groups within the community lead to improvements in women’s scores. However, impacts on other areas of empowerment are limited. The insignificant impacts on attitudes towards domestic violence and respect within the household suggest that women’s groups alone may be insufficient to change deep-seated gender norms that disempower women. Our results have implications for the design and scale-up of women’s group-based programs in South Asia, including the possibility that involving men is needed to change gender norms.","wordCount":283,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Neha Kumar","Kalyani Raghunathan","Alejandra Arrieta","Amir Jilani","Shinjini Pandey"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105579","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e9050733f300d01a","title":"Does organic farming jeopardize food security of farm households in Benin?","abstract":"The prevalence of organic farming and other sustainability standards is increasing around the globe. While effects of organic farming on productivity, income, and poverty alleviation have been analyzed in numerous empirical studies, its effects on food security are barely understood. Using data from smallholder cotton farmers in Benin, we aim to empirically investigate how adopting organic farming affects their food security. According to our results, organic farming is conditionally associated with a notably lower experienced food security and a slightly lower dietary diversity and consumption of vitamin A-rich foods. Evaluating pathways, we find that the negative conditional association between organic farming and food security is a result of a lower household income of organic farms due to lower income from cotton farming given a smaller land area cultivated with cotton, while a larger land area cultivated with food crops cannot fully compensate for the reduced income from cotton farming. This alarming result illustrates the need for evaluating and eventually improving programs for organic farming in developing countries to ensure that good intentions for more sustainable production practices do not jeopardize the livelihoods of vulnerable smallholder farmers.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Ghislain D. B. Aihounton","Arne Henningsen"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102622","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e92af33e97815e5d","title":"Assessing Individual Income Growth","abstract":"We develop methods for describing distributions of income growth across individuals and for comparing changes in growth distributions over time. The methods include graphical devices (‘income growth profiles’) and dominance conditions, and also summary indices, together with associated methods of estimation and inference. Taking an explicitly longitudinal perspective, our approach illuminates clearly who are the gainers and the losers, and also provides distributionally‐sensitive assessments—ones that allow the income growth for different individuals to be weighted differently. Our empirical application shows that the pattern of income growth in Britain over the period 1992–6 was less pro‐poor than that for 1998–2002, and not significantly different from the pattern for 2001–5.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Stephen P. Jenkins","Philippe Van Kerm"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12205","license":"cc-by-nc-sa"},{"id":"public-e92cb5786d343a30","title":"Consumption Network Effects","abstract":"In this article we study consumption network effects. Does the consumption of our peers affect our own consumption? How large is such effect? What are the economic mechanisms behind it? We use administrative panel data on Danish households to construct a measure of consumption based on tax records on income and assets. We combine tax record data with matched employer–employee data to identify peer groups based on workplace, which gives us a much tighter and credible definition of networks than used in previous literature. We use the non-overlapping network structure of one’s peers group, as well as firm-level shocks, to build valid instruments for peer consumption. We estimate non-negligible and statistically significant network effects, capable of generating sizable multiplier effect at the macro-level. We also investigate what mechanisms generate such effects, distinguishing between intertemporal and intratemporal consumption effects as well as a more traditional risk sharing view.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Giacomo De Giorgi","Anders Frederiksen","Luigi Pistaferri"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz026","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e92e5592f5ae719e","title":"Interested, indifferent or active information avoiders of carbon labels: Cognitive dissonance and ascription of responsibility as motivating factors","abstract":"Active avoidance of information is gaining attention in the behavioural sciences. We explore motivations for active avoidance of carbon emissions information. In the first stage of a stated preference survey, respondents indicated whether they wished to access carbon emissions information (info-takers) or not (info-decliners) when selecting a protein source. In the second stage, all respondents were provided with carbon emissions information. The info-takers reduced emissions from their food choices by 32%, while the info-decliners also reduced their emissions (by 12%). This indicates active information avoidance among at least some info-decliners. We explore how cognitive dissonance, responsibility feelings and personal norms affect a person’s actions when information is imposed upon them, and their role as motivators for actively avoiding carbon emissions information on meat products. Individuals who experience climate-related cognitive dissonance and/or responsibility feelings change behaviour more following climate information, and it also increases choice task uncertainty mostly among these. These findings point to the potential of increasing impact from information by simultaneously increasing personal responsibility feelings and activating social norms.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Anna Kristina Edenbrandt","Carl Johan Lagerkvist","Jonas Nordström"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102036","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e930e8d1e4d42706","title":"Misallocation, Selection, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis With Panel Data From China","abstract":"We use household‐level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within‐village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that disproportionately constrain the more productive farmers. These frictions reduce aggregate agricultural productivity by affecting two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misallocation) and (2) the allocation of workers across sectors, in particular the type of farmers who operate in agriculture (selection). Selection substantially amplifies the productivity effect of distortionary policies by affecting occupational choices that worsen average ability in agriculture.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Tasso Adamopoulos","Loren Brandt","Jessica Leight","Diego Restuccia"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta16598","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e93653275b3ca6ca","title":"Is Improving Access to University Enough? Socio‐Economic Gaps in the Earnings of English Graduates","abstract":"Much research and policy attention has been on socio‐economic gaps in participation at university, but less attention has been paid to socio‐economic gaps in graduates’ earnings. This paper addresses this shortfall using tax and student loan administrative data to investigate the variation in earnings of English graduates by socio‐economic background. We find that graduates from higher income families (with median income of around 77,000) have average earnings which are 20% higher than those from lower income families (with median income of around £26,000). Once we condition on institution and subject choices, this premium roughly halves, to around 10%. The premium grows with age and is larger for men, in particular for men at the most selective universities. We estimate the extent to which different institutions and subjects appear to deliver good earnings for relatively less well off students, highlighting the strong performance of medicine, economics, law, business, engineering, technology and computer science, as well as the prominent London‐based universities.","wordCount":159,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Jack Britton","Lorraine Dearden","Neil Shephard","Anna Vignoles"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12261","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e94f6194f3a971d5","title":"Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles","abstract":"This study examines the role of temperature as a driver of seasonal economic cycles. The study first presents a novel dataset of seasonal temperature and seasonal GDP. Stylised facts show that seasonal economic cycles are much more diverse than previous research suggested. The study then attributes seasonal economic cycles to temperature variability. For causal identification, the study proposes a novel econometric approach that accounts for expectations. The results suggest that seasonal temperature has a statistically significantly positive and economically large effect on seasonal GDP. Overall, a substantial share of seasonality in GDP timeseries appears to be due to weather. For a subsample of European countries, the effect of temperature can be attributed to sectors that are relatively more exposed to ambient environmental conditions. Projections of climate change suggest that seasonal economic cycles might substantially change in the future, with larger cycles expected for about half of the countries in the sample.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Manuel Linsenmeier"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103568","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e94fc81f38f861e5","title":"A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar","abstract":"We reexamine the time-series evidence on uncovered interest rate parity for the U.S. dollar versus major currencies at short-, medium- and long-horizons. The evidence that interest rate differentials predict foreign exchange returns is not stable over time and disappears altogether when interest rates are near the zero-lower bound. However, we find that year-on-year inflation rate differentials predict excess returns – when the U.S. y.o.y. inflation rate is relatively high, subsequent returns on U.S. deposits tend to be high. We interpret this as consistent with the hypothesis that markets underreact initially to predictable changes in future monetary policy. The predictive power of y.o.y. inflation begins in the mid-1980s when central banks began to target inflation consistently and continues in the post-ZLB period when interest rates lose their primacy as a policy instrument. We attempt to address some econometric problems that might bias the conventional Fama (1984) test.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Charles Engel","Katya Kazakova","Mengqi Wang","Nan Xiang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103602","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e95db619271b3064","title":"Stabilizing leverage, financial technology innovation, and commercial bank risks: Evidence from China","abstract":"With the rapid development of financial technology (FinTech), balancing FinTech innovation with capital risk management is an emerging issue for banks and regulators. To address this issue, we investigate FinTech's impact on the leverage risks of commercial banks. First, we formulate a theoretical model about the optimal leverage ratio determination for commercial banks within the context of FinTech development. We then conduct an empirical study using Chinese banking microdata from 2005 to 2020. Furthermore, we perform robustness tests by varying FinTech indexes. Our empirical results reveal that (1) an optimal leverage ratio exists that minimizes the risks of commercial banks. Furthermore, (2) FinTech helps banks balance their asset allocation structure, playing a countercyclical role in risk reduction. Finally, (3) FinTech can improve profitability and decrease leverage risks of large, medium-sized, and listed banks. These findings can help banks enhance their FinTech innovation capabilities and regulators prevent governance risks.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Jingjing Yu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106599","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e968b9e5db496d4d","title":"Sharecropping was sometimes efficient: sharecropping with compensation for improvements in European viticulture","abstract":"There is no consensus among specialists in agricultural contracts over whether the long‐term inefficiencies that classical economists attributed to sharecropping actually exist. This article maintains that they do exist and are partly caused by the fact that sharecropping is hardly compatible with the tenant being compensated for improvements, viticulture being the main historical exception. In line with recent contributions to the sharecropping literature, the article contends that the widely held belief among scholars of agricultural contracts that sharecropping was very frequent in Europe's vineyards is incorrect. However, it also provides evidence of an issue whose importance has gone largely unnoticed: prior to the twentieth century, many of the European vineyards worked by sharecroppers had been created by the sharecroppers themselves, through contracts which entitled them to compensation. Those contracts abounded while viticulture depended basically on two inputs, land and labour. When viticulture became a heavy consumer of capital, they were rapidly abandoned, but not in Catalonia, with a paradoxical result: the Catalan rabassa morta contract, which for centuries had made it possible to eliminate both the long‐ and short‐term inefficiencies of sharecropping, ended up becoming an obstacle to overcoming the short‐term inefficiencies. The article discusses why that happened.","wordCount":198,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Samuel Garrido"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12386","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-e989c2b6706c4904","title":"Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis","abstract":"This article studies the spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from developed economies to China in terms of the source, extent and persistence by estimating a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with both financial and trade variables acting as the transmission channels. Our findings confirm the existence of international transmissions of policy uncertainty, while the patterns differ markedly. The US EPU appears to be the most significant cause of the fall of export, industrial production, equity price and exchange rate, meanwhile, the EU EPU is also to be blamed for the depreciation of RMB. In contrast to industrial production, which shows the largest negative impact, Chinese inflation increases to a relatively smaller extent with the EPU shocks ranking as the US, Japanese and the EU. Regardless of the minor impact on a long-term interest rate, the short-term interest rate in China reacts positively to the European and US EPU shocks. Despite the independent national monetary policies, EPUs from the EU, Japan and the UK can decrease the Chinese monetary aggregate. In summary, the Chinese economy responds the most to the US EPU, especially to its inflation expectation disagreement component, whereas it responds the least to the UK EPU.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Liyan Han","Mengchao Qi","Libo Yin"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1167828","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e9ad5f63fa866119","title":"Beyond the pitch: Exploring the role of beauty in soccer player salaries","abstract":"The paper explores the potential influence of subjective factors on salary determination, particularly examining the impact of physical appearance on the earnings of soccer players. This study encompasses data from 373 Major League Soccer players over 12 seasons (2007-2018). Facial symmetry, quantified using the coordinates of each player’s facial features, is utilized as an indicator of physical attractiveness. Various analytical models, including linear, semiparametric, and quantile models, are applied. The results point to a notable 'beauty premium' in the salary structure within this context, with the effects being more significant among the highest earners.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Petr Parshakov","Thadeu Gasparetto","Nadezhda Votintseva","Elena Shakina"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102709","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e9b01d6e80a13130","title":"Housing markets with endogenous search: Theory and implications","abstract":"In this model buyers and sellers enter a housing market with imperfect elasticity. Buyers screen houses for sale in two segments of the market select a set of houses for search in each segment, and then control their intensities of costly search among houses in their preferred sets. Their truncated distributions of acceptable match values are assumed to be power law. Partial equilibrium is calculated explicitly and steady state is characterized analytically. The analysis is extended to multiple segments and markets. Empirical implications include higher average prices and price–rent ratios in preferred segments and markets, as well as spatial diffusion across segments and markets of average prices, price–rent ratios, and search. The predictions are consistent with existing empirical evidence.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Joseph Williams"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2017.12.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e9cc25967e1d1bcf","title":"Privacy regulation and firm performance: Estimating the GDPR effect globally","abstract":"This paper examines how privacy regulation shaped firm performance. Controlling for firm and country‐industry‐year unobserved characteristics, we compare the outcomes of firms at different levels of exposure to EU markets, before and after the enforcement of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2018. We find that the GDPR had the unintended consequence of harming the profitability of companies targeting European consumers through the cost channel. Technology firms experienced a 2.1% decline in profits, but not in sales. The GDPR increased extra expenses, added to firms wage bills, and accelerated patenting in GDPR‐related technology fields. The main burdens have been borne by smaller companies.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Carl Benedikt Frey","Giorgio Presidente"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13213","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e9cdbb37c4c4ed9b","title":"Ambiguity attitudes toward natural and artificial sources in gain and loss domains","abstract":"In this study, we compare ambiguity attitudes—ambiguity aversion and ambiguity-generated insensitivity (a-insensitivity)—toward natural and artificial sources of ambiguity in gain and loss domains with the participation of individuals with various attributes. In our experiment, we use precipitation during the rainy season as a natural source of ambiguity and the Ellsberg-type box as an artificial source. We find that people are more a-insensitive toward the natural source than the artificial source, even though the outcomes are identical. Additionally, people with low cognitive reflection ability are more a-insensitive than those with high cognitive reflection ability. Thus, people with low cognitive reflection ability have more difficulty in identifying likelihood under ambiguity and tend to view the likelihood of all uncertain events to be equal. Furthermore, we examine the relationships between ambiguity attitudes and real-world behaviors with regard to flood preparedness. In the group with high cognitive reflection ability, people with higher a-insensitivity are less likely to adopt flood preparedness behaviors in the gain domain of the natural source. However, we do not find any relationship between ambiguity attitudes and flood preparedness behaviors in the artificial source. Thus, applying ambiguity attitudes toward natural sources is worth considering when explaining real-world behaviors based on ambiguity attitudes.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Masahide Watanabe","Toshio Fujimi"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09420-4","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e9df2da77576b716","title":"Protestantism and human capital: Evidence from early 20th century Ireland","abstract":"Using a large individual-level dataset, we explore the significance of religious affiliation for human capital variation in Ireland at the turn of the twentieth century. We construct a large sample based on the returns of male household heads in the 1901 census and explore variation in literacy across the three principal denominations: Roman Catholicism, Anglicanism and Presbyterianism. Protestantism, particularly Presbyterianism, is associated with higher levels of human capital. This denominational effect is remarkably robust, even when accounting for various control variables and alternative modelling specifications. Supplementary analyses reveal that these literacy disparities existed before the foundation of centralised national schooling in 1831 and were independent of school attendance, as Presbyterians exhibited lower attendance rates than Anglicans. We suggest that denomination mattered because it affected the incentives to accrue literacy ability to fully participate in religious and wider cultural life.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Alan Fernihough","Stuart Henderson"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101647","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-e9e10540adf26c86","title":"The international trade effects of bilateral investment treaties","abstract":"We study the international trade effects of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and compare them to those of regional trade agreements (RTAs). We find that a BIT increases bilateral international trade flows by similar amounts as an RTA if the RTA contains an investment chapter. BITs have larger international trade effects than RTAs without an investment chapter. Results are robust to controlling for the effects of unilateral investment laws. They imply that evaluations of trade and investment agreements should also consider investment regulation.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Benedikt Heid","Isaac Vozzo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109569","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-e9e4e9c90dac93e1","title":"Rumors and social networks","abstract":"This article studies the transmission of rumors in social networks. We consider a model with biased and unbiased agents. Biased agents want to enforce a specific decision and unbiased agents to match the true state. One agent learns the true state and sends a message to her neighbors, who decide whether or not to transmit it further. We characterize the perfect Bayesian equilibria of the game, show that the social network can act as a filter, and that biased agents may have an incentive to limit their number.","wordCount":88,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Francis Bloch","Gabrielle Demange","Rachel Kranton"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12275","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-e9f25678027f2df2","title":"Public Education Inequality and Intergenerational Mobility","abstract":"Public school funding depends heavily on local property tax revenue. Consequently, low-income households have limited access to quality education in neighborhoods with high house prices. In a dynamic life-cycle model with neighborhood choice and endogenous local school quality, we show that this property tax funding mechanism reduces intergenerational mobility and accounts for the spatial correlation between house prices and mobility. A housing voucher experiment improves access to schools, with benefits that can last for multiple generations. Additionally, a policy that redistributes property tax revenues equally across schools improves mobility and welfare. However, the benefits can take generations to be realized.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Angela Zheng","James Graham"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180466","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-e9ffd6541e4340ec","title":"Quantity and quality food losses across the value Chain: A Comparative analysis","abstract":"The essential first steps of addressing the problem of food loss are measuring the loss, identifying where in the food system it occurs, and developing effective policies to mitigate it along the value chain. Food loss has been defined in many ways, and disagreement remains over proper terminology and methodology to measure it. In addition, none of the current classifications includes pre-harvest losses, such as crops lost to pests and diseases before harvest. Consequently, figures on food loss are highly inconsistent. The precise causes of food loss remain undetected, and success stories of reducing food loss are rare. We address this measurement gap by developing and testing three new measurement methodologies, as well as one traditional methodology. Our proposed methods account for losses from pre-harvest to product distribution and include both quantity losses and quality deterioration. We apply the instrument to producers, middlemen, and processors in five staple food value chains in six developing countries. Comparative results suggest that losses are highest at the producer level and most product deterioration occurs before harvest. Aggregated self-reported measures, which have been frequently used in the literature, consistently underestimate actual food losses.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Luciana Delgado","Monica Schuster","Máximo Torero"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101958","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ea1263f43cb8e4d2","title":"Organ donation and reciprocity","abstract":"The willingness to donate organs post-mortem varies considerably both across and within countries. Linking these differences to personal characteristics is an important focus of research investigating the supply of donor organs. Anecdotal evidence and previous findings indirectly suggest that the desire to reciprocate others’ (un)willingness to donate organs plays an important role in the decision to become an organ donor. We use individual measures of reciprocity in a large, representative survey in Germany and relate these to organ donation attitudes and behavior. Higher positive reciprocity is associated with a higher general willingness to donate organs, but it does not correlate with donor card possession. Individuals with higher negative reciprocity have a lower general willingness to donate organs and are less likely to have a donor card. Our findings open up the possibility of a double dividend of measures that increase organ donations. These could yield an additional increase of organ donations via a feedback loop through reciprocity.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Hua-Jing Han","Matthias Wibral"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102331","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ea2251952a95b064","title":"Social Media and Mental Health","abstract":"We provide quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of social media on mental health by leveraging a unique natural experiment: the staggered introduction of Facebook across US colleges. Our analysis couples data on student mental health around the years of Facebook’s expansion with a generalized difference-in-differences empirical strategy. We find that the rollout of Facebook at a college had a negative impact on student mental health. It also increased the likelihood with which students reported experiencing impairments to academic performance due to poor mental health. Additional evidence on mechanisms suggests the results are due to Facebook fostering unfavorable social comparisons.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Luca Braghieri","Roee Levy","Alexey Makarin"],"year":2022,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20211218","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ea23af2b941d99e9","title":"Sweet equality: Sugar, property rights, and land distribution in colonial Java","abstract":"This article exploits a unique district-level dataset to investigate the relationship between sugar cultivation, property rights systems and land distribution in colonial Java around the turn of the twentieth century. We demonstrate a negative and statistically significant relationship between sugar cultivation and the landholder Gini. An IV strategy, employing a newly computed index of sugar suitability as instrument, suggests that this effect is causal. It is argued that sugar production in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries stimulated the expansion and persistence of communal landholding. This communal landholding consequently led to more equally distributed plots among landholders in the early twentieth century. We emphasize the importance of local property rights institutions in mitigating the effects of export production on socioeconomic outcomes.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Pim de Zwart","Phylicia Soekhradj"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101513","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ea301e89eb8488b2","title":"Split-incentives in energy efficiency investments? Evidence from rental housing","abstract":"Rental housing where tenants are responsible for their own energy bills but landlords are responsible for energy retrofits may pose a particular challenge in achieving optimal rates of investments in energy efficiency. In this paper, we investigate the severity of this split-incentive problem in thermal efficiency investments in the German housing market, where the share of renters is among the highest in the European Union and the majority of rented apartments is owned by private individuals. Using data on energy performance scores from Germany's largest online housing market platform between 2019 and 2021, we find economically small differences in the energy efficiency levels between apartments that are offered for sale for own use compared to those that are rented out on the housing market. These findings suggest that there may not be a critical energy efficiency deficit due to the high share of renters in the multi apartment building sector.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Puja Singhal","Stephan Sommer","Kathrin Kaestner","Michael Pahle"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101488","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ea3b3e277210658f","title":"Factors influencing companies' willingness to pay for carbon emissions: Emission trading schemes in China","abstract":"This paper studies the effect of carbon emission trading schemes in China and identifies the factors that influence companies' willingness to pay for carbon emissions, as expressed by the increase in energy costs due to the national carbon market. A questionnaire with a multiple-bounded discrete choice format was designed and 555 valid samples were gathered in this analysis. On average, companies are willing to pay 8.3% more on energy costs, while those participating in pilot trading schemes are willing to pay 10.2% more. Pilot companies also have higher investment in energy-saving technology, better awareness of both carbon mitigation technology and carbon policy, and clearer expectations of the national carbon market. The regression analysis shows that the willingness to pay (WTP) is influenced by several factors. The perception of the high pressure of energy costs will significantly decrease the WTP of the non-pilot companies. If a pilot company presumes that it will participate in the national trading schemes sooner, its willingness to pay will be higher. Participation or not in pilot trading schemes exerts an effect on companies' WTP because of two factors: awareness of carbon mitigation technology and the reduction ratio expected by the companies. Among all manufacturing sectors, companies involved in the non-ferrous, chemical, paper-making and iron and steel sectors can be brought into the national carbon market as priority participants, because they have a higher WTP for carbon emissions, or they have a shorter time expectation for participating in the national carbon market.","wordCount":245,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Yibing Zhao","Can Wang","Yuwei Sun","Xianbing Liu"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.09.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ea3f1ea6f68e733f","title":"European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000","abstract":"The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies between 1300 and 2000. For the sample as a whole, the modern business cycle emerged in the nineteenth century.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Stephen Broadberry","Jason Lennard"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101602","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ea4177aa8e581194","title":"Investment in Financial Information and Portfolio Performance","abstract":"Financial information allows investors to condition the portfolio allocation on valuable signals on asset returns. Therefore investors have incentives to spend on information gathering. If interpreted correctly, information signals allow investors to obtain higher returns and more efficient portfolios. Since information is costly, wealthier and more risk tolerant investors have stronger incentives to invest in information. Overconfident investors who overstate the value of the information still obtain higher average returns but end up with less efficient portfolios. We study these implications using two unique surveys of customers of a leading Italian bank, with portfolio data and measures of individual investment in financial information. We find that investment in information is positively associated with returns to financial wealth and negatively associated with the portfolio Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, the latter falls with proxies of overconfidence. We relate these findings to the wealth inequality debate.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Luigi Guiso","Tullio Jappelli"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12338","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ea518304906d8484","title":"Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation","abstract":"We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs. Misallocation arises because high productivity cities like New York and the San Francisco Bay Area have adopted stringent restrictions to new housing supply, effectively limiting the number of workers who have access to such high productivity. Using a spatial equilibrium model and data from 220 metropolitan areas we find that these constraints lowered aggregate US growth by 36 percent from 1964 to 2009.","wordCount":79,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Chang‐Tai Hsieh","Enrico Moretti"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170388","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ea52593136de8274","title":"The environmental impact of reducing food loss and waste: A critical assessment","abstract":"This paper examines the rationale for pursuing environmental objectives by reducing food loss and waste (FLW). The main thrust of the literature on this issue is that FLW reduction can make a major contribution to making food systems more sustainable. Using a stylized analytical framework, we find that reducing FLW always improves resource use efficiency for land and water, and reduces the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted per unit of food consumed. However, whether the actual environmental outcome is improved will depend on where environmental damage and FLW reduction occur, and the way price transmission connects these along the food supply chain. We find that, while a food waste reduction at the consumer level always improves the environmental outcome, this is not guaranteed when reducing losses from farm to retail. We thus derive a condition linking the price transmission mechanism and the environmental impact of a loss reduction. Simulating environmental outcomes based on a range of parameter values found in the literature, we find that reducing losses at or close to the farm level can increase the aggregate amount of GHG emissions, and therefore focusing on reducing consumer waste is more effective in reducing emissions. As for reducing natural resource use, both loss and waste reductions reduce the amount of land and water use, but effectiveness is reduced by heterogeneity in environmental impact. Relative to loss reductions, effectiveness of a waste reduction is amplified if there are environmentally damaging losses upstream in the value chain, but also dampened by vertical heterogeneity of sourcing along a value chain. The paper makes the case that more targeted instruments may be better suited to address typically local water scarcity and land use and degradation issues.","wordCount":283,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Andrea Cattaneo","Giovanni Federighi","Sara Vaz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101890","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ea5631bc810a37d8","title":"The Privatization Origins of Political Corporations: Evidence from the Pinochet Regime","abstract":"We show that the sale of state-owned firms in dictatorships can help political corporations to emerge and persist over time. Using new data, we characterize Pinochet’s privatizations in Chile and find that some firms were sold underpriced to politically connected buyers. These newly private firms benefited financially from the Pinochet regime. Once democracy arrived, they formed connections with the new government, financed political campaigns, and were more likely to appear in the Panama Papers. These findings reveal how dictatorships can influence young democracies using privatization reforms.","wordCount":86,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Felipe González","Mounu Prem","Francisco Urzúa I."],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050719000780","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ea783c7792921a44","title":"Nowcasting the output gap","abstract":"We propose a way to directly nowcast the output gap using the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR. The mixed-frequency approach produces similar but more timely estimates of the U.S. output gap compared to those based on a quarterly model, the CBO measure of potential, or the HP filter. We find that within-quarter nowcasts for the output gap are more reliable than for output growth, with monthly indicators for a credit risk spread, consumer sentiment, and the unemployment rate providing particularly useful new information about the final estimate of the output gap. An out-of-sample analysis of the COVID-19 crisis anticipates the exceptionally large negative output gap of −8.3% in 2020Q2 before the release of real GDP data for the quarter, with both conditional and scenario nowcasts tracking a dramatic decline in the output gap given the April data.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Tino Berger","James Morley","Benjamin Wong"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ea8eafe22b45422b","title":"Autobahns and jobs: A regional study using historical instrumental variables","abstract":"This paper analyzes the impact of investments in the German autobahn network on West German regions’ labor market performance. To address problems of endogeneity and reverse causation, we use historical instrumental variables from an 1890 plan for the railroad network and a 1937 plan for the autobahn and major roads network. We find a statistically and economically significant positive causal effect of regional changes in autobahn kilometers on employment and the wage bill. According to our IV results, a one-standard-deviation increase in the growth of autobahn length between 1937 and 1994 led to employment growth of between 2.7 and 3.4% and to wage bill growth of between 3.0 and 3.7% over the period from 1994 to 2008. The results are robust to an alternative regional demarcation and identification strategy as well as to alternative estimation methods.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Joachim Möller","Marcus Zierer"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2017.10.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ea9fdb6f0c2ef8db","title":"Individualism, economic freedom, and charitable giving","abstract":"We investigate the role of individualistic social rules and norms in charitable giving. Individualism in market societies is often criticized as corrupting morality and discouraging charitable giving. We contest that view. We propose direct and indirect mechanisms through which individualism increases charity. In the direct channel, individualism encourages self-interested giving. In the indirect channel, individualism contributes to charity by reinforcing economic freedom. We use evidence from a large cross-section of countries and several measures of individualism to investigate both channels. Our empirical findings confirm each channel and support the insights of classical liberals, such as Adam Smith and David Hume, and more recent studies in the humanomics tradition, which recovers the argument that individualism has its virtues.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Meina Cai","Gregory W. Caskey","Nick Cowen","Ilia Murtazashvili","Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili","Raufhon Salahodjaev"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.037","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ead7eb9c369f239d","title":"Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment","abstract":"In response to a change in interest rates, younger firms not paying dividends adjust both their capital expenditure and borrowing significantly more than older firms paying dividends. The reason is that the debt of younger non-dividend payers is far more sensitive to fluctuations in collateral values, which are significantly affected by monetary policy. The results are robust to a wide range of possible confounding factors. Other channels, including movements in interest payments, product demand, profitability, and mark-ups, are also significant but seem unlikely to explain the heterogeneity in the response of capital expenditure. Our findings suggest that these types of financial frictions play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["James Cloyne","Clodomiro Ferreira","Maren Froemel","Paolo Surico"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ead820d7b04f811c","title":"Risk preferences under acute stress","abstract":"Many important decisions are made under stress and they often involve risky alternatives. There has been ample evidence that stress influences decision making, but still very little is known about whether individual attitudes to risk change with exposure to acute stress. To directly evaluate the causal effect of psychosocial stress on risk attitudes, we adopt an experimental approach in which we randomly expose participants to a stressor in the form of a standard laboratory stress-induction procedure: the Trier Social Stress Test for Groups. Risk preferences are elicited using a multiple price list format that has been previously shown to predict risk-oriented behavior out of the laboratory. Using three different measures (salivary cortisol levels, heart rate and multidimensional mood questionnaire scores), we show that stress was successfully induced on the treatment group. Our main result is that for men, the exposure to a stressor (intention-to-treat effect, ITT) and the exogenously induced psychosocial stress (the average treatment effect on the treated, ATT) significantly increase risk aversion when controlling for their personal characteristics. The estimated treatment difference in certainty equivalents is equivalent to 69 % (ITT) and 89 % (ATT) of the gender-difference in the control group. The effect on women goes in the same direction, but is weaker and insignificant.","wordCount":208,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Jana Cahlíková","Lubomír Cingl"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-016-9482-3","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-eadd35641aacb40b","title":"Can mobile phones improve gender equality and nutrition? Panel data evidence from farm households in Uganda","abstract":"Since 2000, mobile phone technologies have been widely adopted in many developing countries. Existing research shows that use of mobile phones has improved smallholder farmers’ market access and income. Beyond income, mobile phones can possibly affect other dimensions of social welfare, such as gender equality and nutrition. Such broader social welfare effects have hardly been analyzed up till now. Here, we address this research gap, using panel data from smallholder farm households in Uganda. Regression results show that mobile phone use is positively associated with household income, women empowerment, food security, and dietary quality. These results also hold after controlling for possible confounding factors. In addition to the household-level analysis, we also look at who within the household actually uses mobile phones. Gender-disaggregation suggests that female mobile phone use has stronger positive associations with social welfare than if males alone use mobile phones. We cautiously conclude that equal access to mobile phones cannot only foster economic development, but can also contribute to gender equality, food security, and broader social development. Further research is required to corroborate the findings and analyze the underlying causal mechanisms.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Haruna Sekabira","Matin Qaim"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.10.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eadf44aa8f3d51be","title":"A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality, Led to the Arab Spring","abstract":"During the 2000s, expenditure inequality in Arab countries was low or moderate and, in many cases, declining. Different measures of wealth inequality were also lower than elsewhere. Yet, there were revolutions in four countries and protests in several others. We explain this so‐called “inequality puzzle” by first noting that, despite favorable income inequality measures, subjective well‐being measures in Arab countries were relatively low and falling sharply, especially for the middle class, and in the countries where the uprisings were most intense. The increasing unhappiness, reflected in perceptions of declining standards of living, was associated with dissatisfaction with the quality of public services, the shortage of formal‐sector jobs, and corruption. These sources of dissatisfaction suggest that the old social contract, where government provided jobs, free education and health, and subsidized food and fuel, in return for the subdued voice of the population, was broken. The Arab Spring and its aftermath indicates the need for a new social contract, one where government promotes private‐sector jobs and accountability in service delivery, and citizens are active participants in the economy and society.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Shantayanan Devarajan","Elena Ianchovichina"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12288","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eae438f7bdd02b42","title":"Assaults, murders and walkers: The impact of violent crime on physical activity","abstract":"We investigate an underexplored externality of crime: the impact of violent crime on individuals' participation in walking. For many adults walking is the only regular physical activity. We use a sample of nearly 1 million people in 323 small areas in England between 2005 and 2011 matched to quarterly crime data at the small area level. Within area variation identifies the causal effect of local violent crime on walking and a difference-in-difference analysis of two high-profile crimes corroborates our results. We find a significant deterrent effect of violent crime on walking that translates into a drop in overall physical activity.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Katharina Janke","Carol Propper","Michael A. Shields"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.01.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eae99141761e2b99","title":"Mechanism design with maxmin agents: Theory and an application to bilateral trade","abstract":"This paper studies mechanism design when agents are maxmin expected utility maximizers. A first result gives a general necessary condition for a social choice rule to be implementable. The condition combines an inequality version of the standard envelope characterization of payoffs in quasilinear environments with an approach for relating agents' maxmin expected utilities to their objective expected utilities under any common prior. The condition is then applied to give an exact characterization of when efficient trade is possible in the bilateral trading problem of Myerson and Satterthwaite, 1983, under the assumption that agents know little beyond each other's expected valuation of the good (which is the information structure that emerges when agents are uncertain about each other's ability to acquire information). Whenever efficient trade is possible, it may be implemented by a relatively simple double auction format. Sometimes, an extremely simple reference price rule can also implement efficient trade.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Alexander Wolitzky"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2089","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-eaf7092baf74619a","title":"Productivity propagation with networks transformation","abstract":"We model sectoral production by cascading binary compounding processes. The sequence of processes is discovered in a self-similar hierarchical structure stylized in the economy-wide networks of production. All substitution elasticities and Hicks-neutral productivity growth are calibrated so that the general equilibrium feedbacks between all sectoral unit cost functions replicate the transformation of networks observed as a set of two temporally distant input-output coefficient matrices. This system of unit cost functions is then examined to study how idiosyncratic sectoral productivity shocks propagate into aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations in light of potential networks transformation. Additionally, we study how sectoral productivity increments propagate into the dynamic general equilibrium, thereby allowing networks transformation and ultimately producing social benefits.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Satoshi Nakano","Kazuhiko Nishimura"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103216","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eb051fe56697b807","title":"Mayors’ promotion incentives and subnational-level GDP manipulation","abstract":"What role do local officials’ incentives play in regional economic growth? How do local officials behave under promotion pressure? This paper studies the unintended impact of mayors’ promotion incentives on regional economic growth and subnational-level GDP manipulation in China. We employ a regression discontinuity design that accounts for age restrictions in deciding promotions for mayors. We find that when GDP performance is prioritized in officials’ promotion evaluations (before 2013), mayors’ promotion incentives significantly increase the statistical GDP growth rate by 3.4 percentage points. However, their effects on nighttime light and other non-manipulable real economic growth indicators are close to zero. This gap can be attributed to GDP manipulation under our empirical framework. The above pattern no longer persists after 2013, when the role of GDP statistics in mayoral promotions was reduced. Our findings indicate that GDP manipulation makes performance-based competition between mayors devolve into a data manipulation game.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Jiangnan Zeng","Qiyao Zhou"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","P","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103679","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eb1aeac376eab27d","title":"Does macroprudential policy alleviate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the resilience of banks?","abstract":"This paper examines the resilience of banks as perceived by market participants during the COVID-19 crisis. We analyse how bank stock returns during January-March 2020 relate to the pre-crisis activation of macroprudential policy across 52 countries in a cross-sectional dimension. We find that, overall, a tighter macroprudential policy stance is beneficial for bank systemic risk, as assessed by equity market investors. A robust finding is that a perceived decrease in bank risk stems primarily from the use of credit growth limits, reserve requirements, and dynamic provisioning. By contrast, a pre-crisis build-up of capital surcharges on systemically important financial institutions seems to lower bank stock returns. Alternative bank risk indicators suggest that the latter is likely to be driven by concerns about profits rather than the probability of default.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Deniz Igan","Ali Mirzaei","Tomoe Moore"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106419","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eb1e207fdd5b6b3a","title":"Intergenerational Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution","abstract":"Using new cross-country survey and experimental data, we investigate how beliefs about intergenerational mobility affect preferences for redistribution in France, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Americans are more optimistic than Europeans about social mobility. Our randomized treatment shows pessimistic information about mobility and increases support for redistribution, mostly for “equality of opportunity” policies. We find strong political polarization. Left-wing respondents are more pessimistic about mobility: their preferences for redistribution are correlated with their mobility perceptions; and they support more redistribution after seeing pessimistic information. None of this is true for right-wing respondents, possibly because they see the government as a “problem” and not as the “solution.”","wordCount":110,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Alberto Alesina","Stefanie Stantcheva","Edoardo Teso"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Z","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20162015","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eb233dea5e1610de","title":"The gender pay gap in the USA: a matching study","abstract":"This study examines the gender wage gap in the USA using two separate cross-sections from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The extensive literature on this subject includes wage decompositions that divide the gender wage gap into \"explained\" and \"unexplained\" components. One of the problems with this approach is the heterogeneity of the sample data. In order to address the difficulties of comparing like with like, this study uses a number of different matching techniques to obtain estimates of the gap. By controlling for a wide range of other influences, in effect, we estimate the direct effect of simply being female on wages. However, a number of other factors, such as parenthood, gender segregation, part-time working, and unionization, contribute to the gender wage gap. This means that it is not just the core \"like for like\" comparison between male and female wages that matters but also how gender wage differences interact with other influences. The literature has noted the existence of these interactions, but precise or systematic estimates of such effects remain scarce. The most innovative contribution of this study is to do that. Our findings imply that the idea of a single uniform gender pay gap is perhaps less useful than an understanding of how gender wages are shaped by multiple different forces.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Katie Meara","Francesco Pastore","Allan Webster"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00743-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eb2577cd19fe68fb","title":"Strategic gaze: an interactive eye-tracking study","abstract":"We present an interactive eye-tracking study that explores the strategic use of gaze. We analyze gaze behavior in an experiment with four simple games. The game can either be a competitive (hide & seek) game in which players want to be unpredictable, or a game of common interest in which players want to be predictable. Gaze is transmitted either in real time to another subject, or it is not transmitted and therefore non-strategic. We find that subjects are able to interpret non-strategic gaze, obtaining substantially higher payoffs than subjects who do not see gaze. If gaze is transmitted in real time, gaze becomes more informative in the common interest games and players predominantly succeed to coordinate on efficient outcomes. In contrast, gaze becomes less informative in the competitive game.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Jan Hausfeld","Konstantin von Hesler","Susanne Goldlücke"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09655-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eb310e74b276d797","title":"Working days in a London construction team in the eighteenth century: evidence from St Paul's Cathedral","abstract":"This article provides new information and data on the work and pay of skilled and semi‐skilled men on a large London construction project in the early 1700s. It offers firm‐level evidence on the employment relation in the construction industry at the time and sheds some light on the number of days worked per year and per week, showing that employment was more irregular and seasonal than current estimates of income infer. The patterns are considered in the context of new debates about industriousness and economic growth.","wordCount":86,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Judy Z. Stephenson"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","B"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12883","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eb4bc5200f0f9b07","title":"A dynamic analysis of criminal networks","abstract":"We take a novel approach based on differential games to the study of criminal networks. We extend the static crime network game (Ballester et al., 2006, 2010) to a dynamic setting where criminal activities negatively impact the accumulation of total wealth in the economy. We derive a Markov Feedback Equilibrium and show that, unlike in the static crime network game, the vector of equilibrium crime rates is not necessarily proportional to the vector of Bonacich centralities. Next, we conduct a comparative dynamic analysis with respect to the network size, the network density, and the marginal expected punishment, finding results in contrast with those arising in the static crime network game. We also shed light on a novel issue in the network theory literature, i.e., the existence of a voracity effect . Finally, we study the problem of identifying the optimal target in the population of criminals when the planner's objective is to minimize aggregate crime at each point in time. Our analysis shows that the key player in the dynamic and the static setting may differ, and that the key player in the dynamic setting may change over time.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Luca Colombo","Paola Labrecciosa","Agnieszka Rusinowska"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105951","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eb4fa007dd898a21","title":"Promises, Expectations, and Social Cooperation","abstract":"Promising serves as an important commitment mechanism by operating on a potential cheater’s internal value system. We present experimental evidence on why people keep their promises, identifying three motives. First, people feel duty bound to keep their promises regardless of whether promisees expect them to do so (promising per se effect). Second, they care about not disappointing promisees’ expectations regardless of whether those expectations were induced by the promise (expectations per se effect). Third, they are even more motivated to avoid disappointing promisees’ expectations when those expectations were induced by a promise (interaction effect). Clear evidence of some of these effects has eluded the prior literature because of limitations inherent to the experimental methods employed. We sidestep those difficulties by using a novel between-subject vignette design. Our results suggest that promising may contribute to the self-reinforcing creation of trust as expectations of performance encourage promise keeping and vice versa.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Dorothee Mischkowski","Rebecca Stone","Alexander Stremitzer"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706075","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eb5e0fea42054a43","title":"Firms' expectations about the impact of ai and robotics: Evidence from a survey","abstract":"This study presents new evidence on firms' views about the impact of artificial intelligence ( AI ) and robotics on their business and employment, using data from an original survey of more than 3,000 Japanese firms. The focus of this study is on technology‐skill complementarity. Firms with highly educated employees tend to expect positive impacts of AI ‐related technologies on their business, and vice versa. Larger firms and firms that engage in global markets tend to have positive views about the impacts of AI ‐related technologies.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Masayuki Morikawa"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12412","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eb696ac4960ca2cb","title":"Generalized Yule–Walker estimation for spatio-temporal models with unknown diagonal coefficients","abstract":"We consider a class of spatio-temporal models which extend popular econometric spatial autoregressive panel data models by allowing the scalar coefficients for each location (or panel) different from each other. To overcome the innate endogeneity, we propose a generalized Yule–Walker estimation method which applies the least squares estimation to a Yule–Walker equation. The asymptotic theory is developed under the setting that both the sample size and the number of locations (or panels) tend to infinity under a general setting for stationary and α-mixing processes, which includes spatial autoregressive panel data models driven by i.i.d. innovations as special cases. The proposed methods are illustrated using both simulated and real data.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Baojun Dou","Maria Lucia Parrella","Qiwei Yao"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.05.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eb6c448cd1ce05f6","title":"Who wins in an energy boom? Evidence from wage rates and housing","abstract":"This article presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the effect of the recent U.S. energy boom on wage rates and housing. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a tighter labor market that benefited local workers. Wage rates also increased substantially across the entire wage rate distribution, although the percentage increase was slightly higher at the bottom of the distribution than at the top. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results suggest that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Grant D. Jacobsen"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12725","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eb6f0c381ee44a71","title":"The right look: Conservative politicians look better and voters reward it","abstract":"Since good-looking politicians win more votes, a beauty advantage for politicians on the left or on the right is bound to have political consequences. We show that politicians on the right look more beautiful in Europe, the United States and Australia. Our explanation is that beautiful people earn more, which makes them less inclined to support redistribution. Our model of within-party competition predicts that voters use beauty as a cue for conservatism when they do not know much about candidates and that politicians on the right benefit more from beauty in low-information elections. Evidence from real and experimental elections confirms both predictions.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Niclas Berggren","Henrik Jordahl","Panu Poutvaara"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.12.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eb7376cc70c9d80a","title":"Sentiment analysis of economic text: A lexicon‐based approach","abstract":"We propose an economic lexicon (EL) specifically designed for textual applications in economics. We construct the dictionary with two important characteristics: (1) to have a wide coverage of terms used in documents discussing economic concepts, and (2) to provide a human‐annotated sentiment score in the range [−1, 1]. We illustrate the use of the EL in the context of a simple sentiment measure and consider several applications in economics. The comparison to other lexicons shows that the EL is superior due to its wider coverage of domain relevant terms and its more accurate categorization of the word sentiment.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Luca Barbaglia","Sergio Consoli","Sebastiano Manzan","Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli","Elisa Tosetti"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13264","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-eb79a5d37c000a70","title":"The freedom to choose: Theory and quasi-experimental evidence on cash transfer restrictions","abstract":"Should cash transfer programmes restrict consumer choice? For example, should food assistance delivered in cash be restricted to food and exclude temptation goods? Theoretically, restrictions induce (1) a substitution effect away from restricted goods and (2) a negative wealth effect if transfers are extra-marginal and the resale of goods is costly. The welfare impact on transfer recipients is negative. We test these predictions by exploiting a natural experiment in a refugee settlement in Kenya, where some refugees receive monthly cash transfers restricted to food while others receive unrestricted transfers. In line with theory, we find that restricted transfers increase participation in a shadow resale market and negatively affect non-food expenditure, temptation-goods spending, and subjective well-being. Consistent with theory, restrictions have no significant effect on food consumption. Our results show that policy-makers should avoid restrictions to maximise positive impacts on transfer beneficiaries, especially when extreme poverty implies that transfers are extra-marginal.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Jade Siu","Olivier Sterck","Cory Rodgers"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103027","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eb7a052505ac19d7","title":"Fertility responses to short-term economic stress: Price volatility and wealth shocks in a pre-transitional settler colony","abstract":"This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jeanne Cilliers","Martine Mariotti","Igor Martins"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101620","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eb7d5580e8fe3ddf","title":"Beyond the male breadwinner: Life‐cycle living standards of intact and disrupted English working families, 1260–1850","abstract":"This article provides a novel framework within which to evaluate real household incomes of predominantly rural working families of various sizes and structures in England in the years 1260–1850. We reject ahistorical assumptions about complete reliance on men's wages and male breadwinning, moving closer to reality by including women and children's contributions to family incomes. Our empirical strategy benefits from recent estimates of men's annual earnings, so avoiding the need to gross up day rates using problematic assumptions about days worked, and from new data on women and children's wages and labour inputs. A family life‐cycle approach which accommodates consumption smoothing through saving adds further breadth and realism. Moreover, the analysis embraces two historically common but often overlooked family types alternative to the traditional male‐breadwinner model: one where the husband is missing having died or deserted, and one where the husband is present but unwilling or unable to find work. Our framework suggests living standards varied widely by family structure and dependency ratio. Incorporating detailed demographic data available for 1560 onward suggests that small and intact families enjoyed high and rising living standards after 1700, while large or disrupted families depended on child labour and poor relief until c . 1830. A broader perspective on family structures informs understanding of the chronology and nature of poverty and coping strategies.","wordCount":219,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Sara Horrell","Jane Humphries","Jacob Weisdorf"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13105","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eb83c22753659339","title":"Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior","abstract":"Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using event studies and ask whether an information effect, where the public attributes the policy surprise to an unobserved state of the economy, may explain the abnormality. It turns out that many informational assumptions make a standard two-country New Keynesian model match this behavior. To identify the particular mechanism, we condition on multiple asset prices in the event study and model implications for these. We find that there is heterogeneity in this dimension in the event study and no model with a single regime can match the evidence. Further, even after conditioning on possible information effects driving longer term interest rates, there appear to be other drivers of exchange rates. Our results show that existing models have a long way to go in reconciling event study analysis with model-based mechanisms of asset pricing.","wordCount":165,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Refet S. Gürkaynak","Ali Kara","Burçin Kısacıkoğlu","Sang Seok Lee"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103443","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eb8f1a6b62fac984","title":"Aggregate Implications of Corporate Debt Choices","abstract":"This article studies the transmission of financial shocks in a model where corporate credit is intermediated via both banks and bond markets. In choosing between bank and bond financing, firms trade-off the greater flexibility of banks in case of financial distress against the lower marginal costs of large bond issuances. I find that, in response to a contraction in bank credit supply, aggregate bond issuance in the corporate sector increases, but not enough to avoid a decline in aggregate borrowing and investment. Keeping leverage constant while retiring bank debt would expose firms to a higher risk of financial distress; they offset this by reducing total borrowing. A calibration of the model to the Great Recession indicates that this precautionary mechanism can account for one-third of the total decline in investment by firms with access to bond markets.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Nicolas Crouzet"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx058","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eb93b40ab16b494d","title":"Electoral competition with costly policy changes: A dynamic perspective","abstract":"We analyze two-party electoral competition with a one-dimensional policy space, costly policy changes, and random negative shocks to a party's viability (e.g., a scandal) over an infinite horizon. We show the existence and uniqueness of stationary Markov perfect equilibria in which parties use so-called simple strategies. Regardless of the initial policy, party choices converge in the long run to a stochastic alternation between two policies, with transitions occurring if and only if parties suffer a negative shock to their viability. Although costs of change have a moderating effect on policies, full convergence to the median voter position does not take place when parties are polarized.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Hans Gersbach","Matthew O. Jackson","Philippe Muller","Oriol Tejada"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105716","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-eb958a9e0567f25a","title":"Life-cycle wealth accumulation and consumption insurance","abstract":"Households appear to smooth consumption in the face of income shocks much more than implied by life-cycle versions of the standard incomplete market model under reference calibrations. In the current paper we explore in detail the role played by the life-cycle profile of wealth accumulation. We show that a standard model parameterized to match the latter can rationalize between 81 and 100 percent of the consumption insurance against permanent earnings shocks empirically estimated by Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008), depending on the tightness of the borrowing limit.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Claudio Campanale","Marcello Sartarelli"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103566","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eb9fb0b0c15321c2","title":"Seller reputation and price gouging: Evidence from the <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 pandemic","abstract":"From mid-January to March 2020, 3M masks sold on Amazon by third party sellers were priced 2.4 times higher than Amazon's 2019 price. However, this price increase was not uniform across sellers. We estimate that when Amazon is stocked out (one of our measures of scarcity) new (entrant) sellers increase price by 178%, whereas the continuing sellers' increase is limited to 56.7%. This is consistent with the idea that seller reputation limits the extent of profitable price gouging. Similar results are obtained for Purell hand sanitizer and for other measures of scarcity. We also explore policy implications of our results.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Luı́s Cabral","Lei Xu"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12993","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eba0cbd28fc7b3e7","title":"Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis","abstract":"This paper examines local changes in annual temperature data for the northern and southern hemispheres (1850–2017) by using a multivariate generalization of the shifting-meanautoregressive model of González and Teräsvirta (2008). Univariate models are first fitted to each series by using the QuickShift methodology. Full information maximum likelihood estimates of a bivariate system of temperature equations are then obtained and asymptotic properties of the corresponding estimators considered. The system is then used to perform formal tests of co-movements, called co-shifting, in the series. The results show evidence of co-shifting in the two series.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Matthew T. Holt","Timo Teräsvirta"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","C","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.011","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-eba32ea4ae1cdda9","title":"Malthus in the light of climate change","abstract":"To reconsider the Malthusian predictions of natural limits to economic development, the paper develops a multi-sector growth model with exhaustible resource extraction, investments in physical and knowledge capital, climate change, and endogenous fertility. Economic growth is driven by endogenous innovations which increase in the availability and productivity of research labour. Poor substitution of natural resources triggers sectoral change. Climate change is the result of polluting resource use which is, like consumption and investments, based on the intertemporal optimization of the households. Highlighting the importance of bounded resource supply and of rational extraction decisions I show that climate change is independent of population growth in steady state and there is no causal relationship between climate and population during transition to steady state. The consumption per capita growth rate rises in the innovation rate and the output elasticities of labour and capital in the different sectors. Unlike climate policy, population policy is not warranted; it may be counterproductive because labour is crucial for the research sector.","wordCount":164,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Lucas Bretschger"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103477","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ebcc4fddc68972db","title":"Social barriers to female migration: Theory and evidence from Bangladesh","abstract":"Traditional gender norms can restrict independent migration by women, thus preventing them from taking advantage of economic opportunities in urban areas. To explore this phenomenon, we develop a model in which women make marriage and migration decisions jointly. The model shows that, in response to a decline in the economic cost of migration, women may use marital migration to circumvent social barriers to female independent migration. To test this and related hypotheses, we use the construction of a major bridge in Bangladesh – which dramatically reduced travel times between the economically deprived north-western region and the capital city Dhaka – as a source of variation in migration costs. Consistent with the predictions of the model, we find that, among rural women from wealthier families, the bridge increased marital migration, schooling, dowry payments, and work in the manufacturing sector, but had no effect on economic migration.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Amrit Amirapu","M. Niaz Asadullah","Zaki Wahhaj"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102891","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ebdf9fd6a5ef87f6","title":"Transportation and Health in the Antebellum United States, 1820–1847","abstract":"I study the impact of transportation on health in the rural United States, 1820–1847. Measuring health by average stature, I find that greater transportation linkage, as measured by market access, in a cohort’s county-year of birth had an adverse impact on its health. A one-standard-deviation increase in market access reduced average stature by 0.14 inches, and rising market access over the study period can explain 37 percent of the contemporaneous decline in average stature, known as the Antebellum Puzzle . I find evidence that transportation affected health by increasing population density, leading to a worse epidemiological environment.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Ariell Zimran"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050720000315","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ebe0669eb3fb3fd2","title":"On the manipulability of equitable voting rules","abstract":"We consider the equity-manipulability trade-off when voting over two alternatives. Pairwise equity is a weakening of anonymity requiring certain permutations of the voters' identities to preserve the outcome of the election. ℓ-robust group strategy-proofness (ℓ-RGSP) and fine robust group strategy-proofness (FRGSP) are notions of group strategy-proofness that allow voters to have different beliefs about players' types (Kivinen and Tumennasan, 2021). Our main results show that, under mild conditions, for pairwise equitable voting rules anonymity is equivalent to 2-RGSP, 3-RGSP, and FRGSP. In this way, anonymity is special in its equity and non-manipulability. These results follow from several preliminary results, one of which equates 2-RGSP to comonotonicity and swap-robustness. Finally, we consider the manipulability of k-unanimous rules, and 2-RGSP when agents can be indifferent and abstain.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Steven Kivinen"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2023.06.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ebe41544f03f5e1a","title":"Competition after mergers near review thresholds","abstract":"Size thresholds determine whether a national authority reviews a merger and separate national and supranational responsibility. Firms could pursue competition-reducing mergers before they come under any regulatory oversight. Using data on German procurement auctions, I analyse competition effects near review thresholds. Four years after a merger, competition in procurement auctions decreases after mergers that are reviewed by the German national authority, relative to mergers below the threshold. However, when acquiror and target competed in procurement auctions before the merger, competition relatively increases after a German national merger review. Anti-competitive effects after nationally reviewed mergers without pre-merger activity in procurement may get unnoticed by the authority.","wordCount":105,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michael Weichselbaumer"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103066","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ebeae3c32b302799","title":"Irrigation and the spatial pattern of local economic development in India","abstract":"We study the long-term impact of large-scale irrigation infrastructure on the composition of local economic activity in India. Our analysis uses high-resolution spatial data covering approximately 150,000 villages and towns and exploits spatial discontinuities in the coverage of irrigation projects. Irrigation increases agricultural output, wealth, and population density in rural villages. However, in towns it reduces population and nightlight density, the size of the non-agricultural sector, and large-firm activity. These results highlight the heterogeneous impacts that agricultural productivity gains can have on the patterns local economic development.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["David Blakeslee","Aaditya Dar","Ram Fishman","Samreen Malik","Heitor S. Pellegrina","Karan Singh Bagavathinathan"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102997","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ebf33a341296e556","title":"Geopolitical turning points and macroeconomic volatility: a bilateral identification strategy","abstract":"Replicates the results for Japan–China relations, supporting external validity of the turning-point instrument and the quantile IV–LP framework. This paper constructs a new identification method to quantify bilateral geopolitical shocks—geopolitical turning points—i.e., abrupt, unforeseen state-to-state political turning points. Geopolitical shocks are captured by the second difference of the Political Relationship Index (Δ²PRI), a monthly narrative-based index constructed from Chinese government and media coverage. Unlike conventional global geopolitical risk indicators, Δ²PRI separates sudden departures from bilateral diplomatic paths so causal estimation is possible in a comparative cross-national context. Quantile instrumental variable local projections (IV-LP) are applied in the paper to estimate the dynamic and asymmetric geopolitical shock impact on world oil prices. It is estimated that US–China relational improvements lower oil prices by 0.2% in the short run and increase them by 0.3% in the medium run, with larger effects at the distribution boundaries of oil prices. Replication from Japan–China data establishes external validity. The paper adds a replicable analysis framework to explain how geopolitical shocks for dyads with heterogeneous institutional history and strategic rivalry spill over into global economic instability.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Jamel Saadaoui"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.010","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ebfd3cbeab1ddbf2","title":"The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications","abstract":"This article studies the pruned state-space system for higher-order perturbation approximations to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models.We show the stability of the pruned approximation up to third order and provide closed-form expressions for first and second unconditional moments and impulse response functions. Our results introduce generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation and impulse-response matching for DSGE models approximated up to third order and provide a foundation for indirect inference and simulated method of moments (SMM). As an application, we consider a New Keynesian model with Epstein-Zin preferences and two novel feedback effects from long-term bonds to the real economy, allowing us to match the level and variability of the 10-year term premium in the U.S. with a low relative risk aversion of 5.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Martin Møller Andreasen","Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde","Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramı́rez"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx037","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ec02affddc942802","title":"Gender biases in student evaluations of teaching","abstract":"This article uses data from a French university to analyze gender biases in student evaluations of teaching (SETs). The results of fixed effects and generalized ordered logit regression analyses show that male students express a bias in favor of male professors. Also, the different teaching dimensions that students value in male and female professors tend to match gender stereotypes. Men are perceived by both male and female students as being more knowledgeable and having stronger class leadership skills (which are stereotypically associated with males), despite the fact that students appear to learn as much from women as from men.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Anne Boring"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.11.006","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ec20cc331fcfad0e","title":"Insurance decisions under nonperformance risk and ambiguity","abstract":"An important societal problem is that people underinsure against risks that are unlikely or occur in the far future, such as natural disasters and long-term care needs. One explanation is that uncertainty about the risk of non-reimbursement induces ambiguity averse and risk prudent decision makers to take out less insurance. We set up an insurance experiment to test this explanation. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, we find that the demand for insurance is lower when the nonperformance risk is ambiguous than when it is known and when decision makers are risk prudent. We cannot attribute the lower take-up of insurance to our measure of ambiguity aversion, probably because ambiguity attitudes are richer than aversion alone. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-021-09364-7.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Timo R. Lambregts","Paul Van Bruggen","Han Bleichrodt"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09364-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ec264547f72068e1","title":"Optimal dynamic matching","abstract":"We study a dynamic matching environment where individuals arrive sequentially. There is a trade‐off between waiting for a thicker market, allowing for higher‐quality matches, and minimizing agents' waiting costs. The optimal mechanism cumulates a stock of incongruent pairs up to a threshold and matches all others in an assortative fashion instantaneously. In discretionary settings, a similar protocol ensues in equilibrium, but expected queues are inefficiently long. We quantify the welfare gain from centralization, which can be substantial, even for low waiting costs. We also evaluate welfare improvements generated by alternative priority protocols.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Mariagiovanna Baccara","Sang Mok Lee","Leeat Yariv"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3740","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ec410ce4a0dbf248","title":"Assessing Trends in Multidimensional Poverty During the MDGs","abstract":"While we have extensive information on the trends in income poverty, little is known about the trends in multidimensional poverty. The paper tries to fill this gap by assessing the changes in multidimensional poverty in 54 countries since 2000. The analysis relies on two individual‐based indices, the G‐CSPI and the G‐M 0 , which combine three dimensions: education, health, and employment, derived through the constitutional approach. The G‐CSPI is a distribution‐sensitive index, while the G‐M 0 allows decomposition by dimension. The results reveal that more than 80 percent of the countries have reduced multidimensional poverty. However, progress was very limited in sub‐Saharan Africa. Different decomposition analyses indicate that poverty alleviation was mainly driven by a reduction in the incidence of poverty and a decline in health deprivations. A comparison with changes in income poverty suggests that the correlation is not strong and that multidimensional poverty has decreased significantly less.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Francesco Burchi","Daniele Malerba","Claudio E. Montenegro","Nicole Rippin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12578","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ec47363424a89558","title":"Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy","abstract":"We show that negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has expansionary effects on credit supply through a portfolio rebalancing channel. By shifting down and flattening the yield curve, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the zero-lower-bound and has effects similar to QE. For identification, we exploit ECB’s NIRP and the Italian credit register and, for external validity, European and U.S. datasets. NIRP affects more banks with higher ex-ante liquid assets, including net interbank positions. More exposed banks reduce liquid assets, expand credit supply, especially to financially-constrained firms, and cut loan rates, inducing firms to increase investment and the wage bill.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Margherita Bottero","Camelia Minoiu","José‐Luis Peydró","Andrea Polo","Andrea Presbitero","Enrico Sette"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.11.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ec4eec8073d41e14","title":"Striving for balance in economics: Towards a theory of the social determination of behavior","abstract":"This paper is an attempt to broaden economic discourse by importing insights into human behavior not just from psychology, but also from sociology and anthropology. Whereas in standard economics the concept of the decision-maker is the rational actor, and in early work in behavioral economics it is the quasi-rational actor influenced by the context of the moment of decision, in some recent work in behavioral economics, the decision-maker could be called the enculturated actor. This actor's preferences, perception, and cognition are subject to two deep social influences: (a) the social contexts to which he has become exposed and, especially, accustomed; and (b) the cultural mental models—including categories, identities, narratives, and worldviews—that he uses to process information. The paper traces how these factors shape behavior through the endogenous determination of preferences and the lenses through which individuals see the world—their perception and interpretation of situations. The paper offers a tentative taxonomy of the social determinants of behavior and describes the results of controlled and natural experiments that only a broader view of these determinants can plausibly explain. The perspective suggests more realistic models of human behavior for explaining outcomes and designing policies.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Karla Hoff","Joseph E. Stiglitz"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.01.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ec53b9353a83ab53","title":"Testing the theory of multitasking: Evidence from a natural field experiment in chinese factories","abstract":"Using a natural field experiment, we quantify the impact of one‐dimensional performance‐based incentives on incentivized (quantity) and nonincentivized (quality) dimensions of output for factory workers with a flat‐rate or a piece‐rate base salary. In particular, we observe output quality by hiring quality inspectors unbeknownst to the workers. We find that workers trade off quality for quantity, but the effect is statistically significant only for workers under a flat‐rate base salary. This variation in treatment effects is consistent with a simple theoretical model that predicts that when agents are already incented at the margin, the quantity–quality trade‐off resulting from performance pay is less prominent.","wordCount":103,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Fuhai Hong","Tanjim Hossain","John A. List","Migiwa Tanaka"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12278","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ec5fe499726ed48c","title":"Ranking finance conferences: An update","abstract":"Researchers need to decide on which academic conferences to attend. To inform this decision, we track the publication status of 6805 research articles presented at 87 finance conferences between 2011 and 2015. We rank these conferences based on publication rates in top finance and economics journals. To complement these rankings, we also examine publication rates within specific research fields and citation scores. The rankings show considerable heterogeneity in conference quality and uncover three major conference clusters. We further examine the role and timing of conferences in the publication process, analyze important time trends, explore the relationship between conference size and publication success, and highlight the relatively low overlap in accepted papers across conferences.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Wei Hou","Esad Smajlbegovic","Daniel Urban"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101652","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ec62721a43587784","title":"Social mobility among Christian Africans: evidence from Anglican marriage registers in Uganda, 1895–2011","abstract":"This article uses Anglican marriage registers from colonial and post‐colonial Uganda to investigate long‐term trends and determinants of intergenerational social mobility and colonial elite formation among Christian African men. It shows that the colonial era opened up new labour opportunities for these African converts, enabling them to take large steps up the social ladder regardless of their social origin. Contrary to the widespread belief that British indirect rule perpetuated the power of African political elites (chiefs), this article shows that a remarkably fluid colonial labour economy actually undermined their social advantages. Sons of chiefs gradually lost their high social‐status monopoly to a new, commercially orientated, and well‐educated class of Anglican Ugandans, who mostly came from non‐elite and sometimes even lower‐class backgrounds. The study also documents that the colonial administration and the Anglican mission functioned as key steps on the ladder to upward mobility. Mission education helped provide the skills and social reference needed to climb the ladder in exchange for compliance with the laws of the Anglican Church. These social mobility patterns persisted throughout the post‐colonial era, despite rising levels of informal labour during Idi Amin's dictatorship.","wordCount":187,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Felix Meier zu Selhausen","Marco H. D. van Leeuwen","Jacob Weisdorf"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12616","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ec6fb10abcee4be7","title":"Mortgage payments and household consumption in urban China","abstract":"By exploiting variation both in mortgage payoffs and mortgage interest-rate resets, we find that a decline in mortgage payments induces a significant increase in nondurable goods spending, even when households have substantial amounts of liquidity. Following mortgage payoff, households increase consumption expenditures by 61% of the original payment. In comparison, households increase consumption by only 36% in response to a transitory payment adjustment induced by interest rate changes. Households with a higher payment-to-income ratio have a significantly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC). These results have practical implications for policy markers seeking to design consumption boosting policies and are important for understanding how changes in monetary policy may affect consumer spending patterns.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Zhao Da","Yifan Chen","Jim Huangnan Shen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.07.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ec7c58e4e1df59ba","title":"A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model","abstract":"This paper develops a stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model that combines the stock-flow consistent approach of Godley and Lavoie with the flow-fund model of Georgescu-Roegen. The model has the following key features. First, monetary and physical stocks and flows are explicitly formalised taking into account the accounting principles and the laws of thermodynamics. Second, Georgescu-Roegen's distinction between stock-flow and fund-service resources is adopted. Third, output is demand-determined but supply constraints might arise either due to environmental damages or due to the exhaustion of natural resources. Fourth, climate change influences directly the components of aggregate demand. Fifth, finance affects macroeconomic activity and the materialisation of investment plans that determine ecological efficiency. The model is calibrated using global data. Simulations are conducted to investigate the trajectories of key environmental, macroeconomic and financial variables under (i) different assumptions about the sensitivity of economic activity to the leverage ratio of firms and (ii) different types of green finance policies.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Yannis Dafermos","Maria Nikolaidi","Giorgos Galanis"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.08.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ec83980be2e08a5b","title":"The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic","abstract":"Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the aftermath of the Russian crisis of 1998 strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasi-experimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Toman Barsbai","Hillel Rapoport","Andreas Steinmayr","Christoph Trebesch"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150517","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ec946ac17c261066","title":"Teacher Value Added in a Low-Income Country","abstract":"Using data from Pakistan, we show that existing methods produce unbiased and reliable estimates of teacher value added (TVA) despite significant differences in context. Although effective teachers increase learning substantially, observed teacher characteristics account for less than 5 percent of the variation in TVA. The first two years of tenure and content knowledge correlate with TVA in our sample. Wages for public sector teachers do not correlate with TVA, although they do in the private sector. Finally, teachers newly entering on temporary contracts with 35 percent lower wages have similar distributions of TVA to the permanent teaching workforce.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Natalie Bau","Jishnu Das"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170243","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eca1944b02107804","title":"The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd","abstract":"Robinhood investors increased their holdings in the March 2020 COVID bear market, indicating an absence of collective panic and margin calls. This steadfastness was rewarded in the subsequent bull market. Despite unusual interest in some “experience” stocks (e.g., cannabis stocks), they tilted primarily toward stocks with high past share volume and dollar‐trading volume (themselves mostly big stocks). From mid‐2018 to mid‐2020, an aggregated crowd consensus portfolio (a proxy for the household‐equal‐weighted portfolio) had both good timing and good alpha.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Ivo Welch"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13128","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ecaeae77608748f4","title":"Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects","abstract":"Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the average treatment effects (ATE ) in each group and period, with weights that may be negative. Due to the negative weights, the linear regression coefficient may for instance be negative while all the ATEs are positive. We propose another estimator that solves this issue. In the two applications we revisit, it is significantly different from the linear regression estimator.","wordCount":83,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Clément de Chaisemartin","Xavier D’Haultfœuille"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181169","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-ecb5cc3137495149","title":"What matters in households’ inflation expectations?","abstract":"Using survey data on French households over the 2004–2018 period, we provide new evidence on the role of households’ inflation expectations for durable spending decisions. A large share of households expects prices to remain stable instead of increasing. This share accounts for 75% of fluctuations in the average inflation expectation. Households expecting stable prices have a lower propensity to buy durable goods than those expecting positive inflation. In contrast, differences across households expecting positive inflation are associated with insignificant differences in durable consumption decisions. We discuss some policy implications.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Philippe Andrade","Erwan Gautier","Éric Mengus"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ecbc4d3d5e13f221","title":"The political path to universal health coverage: Power, ideas and community-based health insurance in Rwanda","abstract":"Rwanda is the country with the highest enrolment in health insurance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Pivotal in setting Rwanda on the path to universal health coverage (UHC) is the community-based health insurance (CBHI), which covers more than three-quarters of the population. The paper seeks to explain how Rwanda, one of the poorest countries in the world, managed to achieve such performance by understanding the political drivers behind the CBHI design and implementation. Using an analytical framework relying on political settlement and ideas, it engages in process-tracing of the critical policy choices of the CBHI development. The study finds that the commitment to expanding health insurance coverage was made possible by a dominant political settlement. CBHI is part of the broader efforts of the regime to foster its legitimacy based on rapid socio-economic development. Yet, CBHI was chosen over other potential solutions to expand access to healthcare because it was also the option the most compatible with the ruling coalition core ideology. The study shows that pursuing UHC is an eminently political process but explanations solely based on objective “interests” of rulers cannot fully account for the emergence and shape of social protection programme. Ideology matters as well. Programme design compatible with the political economy of a country but incompatible with ideas of the ruling coalition is likely to run into political obstructions. The study also questions the relevance for poor countries to reach UHC relying on pure CBHI models based on voluntary enrolment and community management.","wordCount":245,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Benjamin Chemouni"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.01.023","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ecbf2489d417aeb5","title":"Are there reasons against open-ended research into solar radiation management? A model of intergenerational decision-making under uncertainty","abstract":"Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means of last resort against dangerous climate change. We propose a stylized model of intergenerational decision making on SRM research, greenhouse-gas abatement and SRM deployment, under uncertainties about (a) the extent of future climate damage and (b) effectiveness and potential harmful side-effects of SRM. Open-ended research may reveal either that SRM effectively reduces climate damage, or that it would cause more harm than benefits. We find that SRM research increases the likelihood of deployment (“slippery slope”), and derive conditions that it decreases abatement effort in expectation (“moral hazard”). Neither of these provides a rationale against SRM research, though. The rational decision is to perform SRM research, unless (i) discounting is hyperbolic and (ii) the absolute prudence of expected climate damage is smaller than absolute risk aversion. These results generalize to the case where SRM research also provides information on climate sensitivity.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Martin F. Quaas","Johannes Quaas","Wilfried Rickels","Oliviér Boucher"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.02.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ecc0cf1a246e6741","title":"A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law","abstract":"A system of two dynamic spatial panel data model equations is developed in which output growth and the change in the unemployment rate are interdependent. The parameters of the model are estimated by recently developed maximum likelihood techniques for multivariate spatial econometric models, using data of twelve provinces in the Netherlands over the period 1974–2018, covering four major economic downturns of the Dutch economy. By using time-cumulative marginal effects derived from the impulse response function of this model, it is found that Okun's law is dominated by the relationship that runs from output growth to unemployment. The amount of growth that is needed to reduce unemployment by one percentage point is shown to depend on the extent to which spillover effects to neighboring regions and output multiplier effects are accounted for.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["J. Paul Elhorst","Silvia Emili"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103756","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ecd5c15b28a28d6f","title":"Does the stick make the carrot more attractive? State mandates and uptake of renewable heating technologies","abstract":"Command and control regulation is a popular tool for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from the building stock. We exploit the introduction of a state-specific mandate in Germany on renewable heating when replacing the heating system in existing homes. We study the effect of the mandate on the uptake of subsidies for renewable heating technologies using unique data from a pre-existing federal government subsidy scheme. Using a geographic discontinuity design, we find that the mandate has positive effects on take-up of these subsidies, with 2 additional subsidized installations per 1000 eligible buildings in the existing building stock on average. Effects are larger in municipalities where adoption rates as measured by the subsidy scheme were below median prior to the introduction of the mandate. However, we also find suggestive evidence that retrofitting activities in the state declined in response to the introduction of the mandate.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Robert Germeshausen","Kathrine von Graevenitz","Martin Achtnicht"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103753","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ecddae3c9214ca44","title":"From family security to the welfare state: Path dependency of social security on the difference in legal origins","abstract":"We provide a new framework to analyze law and public finance from the perspective of difference in legal origins. The size of the welfare system differs from country to country. The security net provided by the family and other informal institutions also varies. Our two-sector model links these phenomena. We consider two cases of security. The first considers security achieved through intra-household resource redistribution in the traditional sector. The second case considers the welfare state, which taxes the modern sector. Switching from intense family security to an extensive welfare state model enhances growth because state taxation on the modern sector harnesses the potential productivity of the entire economy. In contrast, countries with low levels of family security should transition to a small welfare state model to sustain growth. This finding explains the different trends of welfare benefits in civil law and common law countries. The different sizes of the welfare state have their origins in family law, which differently stipulates family security between civil law and common law countries.","wordCount":169,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Masaki Nakabayashi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.01.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ecfe02bff588be23","title":"Monetary policy under natural disaster shocks","abstract":"With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, what should central banks do in response to these catastrophic events? Looking at IMF reports for 34 disaster‐years, which occurred in 16 disaster‐prone countries from 1999 to 2017, reveals lack of any systematic approach adopted by monetary authorities in response to climate shocks. Using a small‐open‐economy New‐Keynesian model with disaster shocks, we show that consistent with textbook theory, inflation targeting remains the welfare‐optimal regime. Therefore, the best strategy for monetary authorities is to resist the impulse of accommodating in response to catastrophic natural disasters, and focus on price stability.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Alessandro Cantelmo","Nikos Fatouros","Giovanni Melina","Chris Papageorgiou"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12694","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ed0a8b406d9a72e3","title":"Local energy access and industry specialization: Evidence from World War II emergency pipelines","abstract":"How does improving access to the supply of energy affect regional specialization in manufacturing? We evaluate the long-run employment impacts of pipelines constructed by the U.S. government during World War II to transport oil and gas from the oil fields of the Southwest to wartime industrial producers in the Northeast. The pipelines were built rapidly to connect end points along a direct path that minimized use of scarce construction materials. Postwar they were converted to supply en route customers, giving counties close to the pipelines access to a cheap and plentiful source of energy. Between 1940 and 1950, counties with better access to pipeline gas had larger increases in their share of employment in energy-intensive industries. These impacts persisted to the mid-1980s for all energy-intensive industries and to the late 1990s for the subset of industries intensive in the direct use of electricity, despite the disruptive effects of the 1970s energy crisis. Our findings are relevant for understanding energy-related path dependence in local economic development patterns and how government intervention in energy markets affects industry location in the short and long run.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jacob Greenspon","Gordon Hanson"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101688","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ed1211fd9ec5b1df","title":"On the stability of risk preferences: Measurement matters","abstract":"We exploit the unique design of a repeated survey experiment among students in four countries to explore the stability of risk preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Relative to a baseline before the pandemic, we find that self-assessed willingness to take risks decreased while the willingness to take risks in an incentivized lottery task increased, for the same sample of respondents. These findings suggest domain specificity of preferences that is partly reflected in the different measures.","wordCount":78,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Joop Adema","Till Nikolka","Panu Poutvaara","Uwe Sunde"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110172","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ed2a6bafb551d332","title":"Trying to Understand the PPPs in ICP 2011: Why Are the Results So Different?","abstract":"Purchasing power parity exchange rates, or PPPs, are price indexes that summarize prices in each country relative to a numeraire country, typically the United States. These numbers are used to compare living standards across countries, by academics in studies of economic growth, particularly through the Penn World Table, by the World Bank to construct measures of global poverty, by the European Union to redistribute resources, and by the international development community to draw attention to discrepancies between rich and poor countries. The International Comparison Program (ICP) collects the detailed prices on which these indexes are based on an irregular basis. In 2014, the ICP published PPPs from the 2011 round that are sharply different from those that were expected from extrapolation of the previous round, ICP 2005. These discrepancies will eventually have important implications for the Penn World Table, and for international comparisons of living standards given that the PPPs are used to convert countries’ national accounts—GDP and consumption, for example—from local currency to common currency units (international dollars.) The world according to ICP 2011 looks markedly more equal than the world according to ICP 2005. This paper investigates why this happened. We identify a likely source of the problem in the way that the regions of the ICP were linked in 2005. We use two different methods for measuring the size of the effect. Both suggest that the 2005 PPPs for consumption for countries in Asia (excluding Japan), Western Asia, and Africa were overstated relative to the United States by between 18 to 26 percent. Per capita consumption in international dollars of these countries was therefore too low in 2005 and more likely to be accurately estimated in 2011.","wordCount":280,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Angus Deaton","Bettina Aten"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150153","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ed477e8e360aa600","title":"Marijuana legalization and opioid deaths","abstract":"Many states have legalized marijuana over the last two decades, initially for medical purposes and more recently for recreational consumption. Despite prior research, it remains unclear how these policies are related to rates of opioid-involved overdose deaths, which have trended rapidly upwards over time. We examine this question in two ways. First, we replicate and extend previous investigations to show that the prior empirical results are frequently fragile to the choice of specifications and time periods, and probably provide an overly optimistic assessment of the effects of marijuana legalization on opioid deaths. Second, we present new estimates suggesting that legal medical marijuana, particularly when available through retail dispensaries, is associated with higher opioid mortality. The results for recreational marijuana, while less reliable, also indicate that retail sales may be correlated with greater death rates relative to the counterfactual of no legal cannabis. A likely mechanism for these effects is the emergence of illicit fentanyl, which has increased the riskiness of even small positive effects of cannabis legalization on the consumption of opioids.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Neil K. Mathur","Christopher J. Ruhm"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102728","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ed488718f4e4a89a","title":"Privacy protection, measurement error, and the integration of remote sensing and socioeconomic survey data","abstract":"When publishing socioeconomic survey data, survey programs implement a variety of statistical methods designed to preserve privacy but which come at the cost of distorting the data. We explore the extent to which spatial anonymization methods to preserve privacy in the large-scale surveys supported by the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) introduce measurement error in econometric estimates when that survey data is integrated with remote sensing weather data. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we produce 90 linked weather-household datasets that vary by the spatial anonymization method and the remote sensing weather product. By varying the data along with the econometric model we quantify the magnitude and significance of measurement error coming from the loss of accuracy that results from privacy protection measures. We find that spatial anonymization techniques currently in general use have, on average, limited to no impact on estimates of the relationship between weather and agricultural productivity. However, the degree to which spatial anonymization introduces mismeasurement is a function of which remote sensing weather product is used in the analysis. We conclude that care must be taken in choosing a remote sensing weather product when looking to integrate it with publicly available survey data.","wordCount":201,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Jeffrey D. Michler","Anna Josephson","Talip Kilic","Siobhan Murray"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102927","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ed5aeb21b9b8b6f0","title":"Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy","abstract":"Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–92. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but a negative and significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration helped to increase the coping capacity of local communities. Indeed, migrant labour both brought in remittances that supplemented communities’ resources, as well as temporarily relieved impoverished households of the burden of feeding these workers. I show that while temperature shocks were strongly associated with an increase in property crime rates, the effect was much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence demonstrating that the inflow of remittances may have driven this relationship.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Cédric Chambru"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101353","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ed6d92d3cf14ee08","title":"The Biases in Applying Static Demand Models Under Dynamic Demand","abstract":"This article investigates the mechanisms that underlie the biases in price elasticities of demand in applying static demand models under dynamic demand, which have been pointed out by previous empirical studies. It studies three sources of biases: disregard of state variables (affecting short-run elasticity); inconsistent utility parameter estimates; and changing expectations of consumers (affecting long-run elasticity). Disregard of state variables, such as durable product holdings, which is not negligible but not paid much attention to in the literature, leads to an overestimate of short-run own elasticities. Inconsistent utility parameter estimates arises due to the failure to account for consumers’ future expectations and unobserved state variables. Changing expectations of consumers are not explicitly specified in the static model, and this also leads to biased results when applying static models. Regarding the magnitude of the biases, the first and the third sources of biases might induce large biases in price elasticities, especially when the focus is on the large conditional choice probability products. Possible remedies for the use of static demand models are also discussed.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Takeshi Fukasawa"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09946-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ed76c5683ee0f078","title":"Economic consequences of gender differences in behavior","abstract":"This paper serves as the opening for the Virtual Special Issue on the economic consequences of gender differences in behavior, published in the Journal of Economic Psychology. The issue aims to consolidate recent research exploring how gender differences in behavior, reflected in risk attitudes, competitiveness, and negotiation tendencies, impact economic outcomes and, in particular, may partially explain labor market differences across genders regarding occupational segregation, wage gaps, and disparities in career advancement. We provide an overview of the topic, highlighting the importance of understanding gender-specific economic behaviors and setting the stage for the detailed studies, and follow by introducing the articles included in the special issue, which use mainly experimental and empirical insights.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Jaume García-Segarra","Iñigo Hernandez-Arenaz","Pedro Rey‐Biel"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102818","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ed877fa640f6f360","title":"Herding for profits: Market breadth and the cross-section of global equity returns","abstract":"This paper shows that market breadth, i.e. the difference between the average number of rising stocks and the average number of falling stocks within a portfolio, is a robust predictor of future stock returns on market and industry portfolios for 64 countries for the period between 1973 and 2018. We link the market breadth with herd behavior and show that high market breadth portfolios significantly outperform low market breadth portfolios, and that this effect is robust to effects such as size, style, volatility, skewness, momentum, and trend-following signals. In addition, the role of market breadth is particularly strong among markets characterized by high limits to arbitrage, following bullish periods, and in collectivistic societies, supporting behavioral explanations of the phenomenon. We also examine practical implications of the effect and our results indicate that the effect may be employed for equity allocation and market timing, although frequent portfolio rebalancing can lead to higher transaction costs that may affect profitability.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Adam Zaremba","Adam Szyszka","Andreas Karathanasopoulos","Mateusz Mikutowski"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-eda01bcf7721269d","title":"Fiscal adjustments and the shadow economy in an emerging market","abstract":"We build an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that allows us to: (i) derive a time series for labor informality in Brazil spanning the period 2004–2018, whose evolution is consistent with the behavior of the main series provided by Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD); (ii) run dynamic simulations showing that, in the presence of a large informal labor market (around 50% of the total labor force), expenditure-cutting measures lead, at worst, to mild short-run recessions in the formal sector and are likely to foster public debt sustainability. Likewise, adjustments through some kinds of distortionary taxation, mainly the corporate tax, and to a lesser extent, the consumption tax, also seem to improve both public debt dynamics and fiscal collection without a significant cost in terms of output. Thus, in countries with large informal economies experiencing fiscal woes, expenditure-based consolidations, as well as some sorts of tax-based adjustments, should be relied upon.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Celso José Costa","Alejandro C. García-Cintado","Carlos Usabiaga"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100519000828","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-edaa1f86261c3fef","title":"Banks, government Bonds, and Default: What do the data Say?","abstract":"This paper analyzes sovereign bondholdings by 20,000 banks in 191 countries and 20 sovereign default episodes over 1998–2012, establishing two robust facts. First, banks hold many government bonds (on average 9% of assets) in normal times, particularly banks making fewer loans and operating in less financially-developed countries. Second, during default years, banks with the average exposure to government bonds exhibit a lower growth rate of loans than banks without bonds (7-percentage points lower). These results indicate that the “dangerous embrace” between banks and their government plays a key role during sovereign defaults and its strength depends on local conditions.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Nicola Gennaioli","Alberto Martín","Stefano Rossi"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-edae7b7361dbd7e0","title":"Monotonicity and egalitarianism","abstract":"This paper identifies the maximal domain of transferable utility games on which aggregate monotonicity (no player is worse off when the worth of the grand coalition increases) and egalitarian core selection (no other core allocation can be obtained by a transfer from a richer to a poorer player) are compatible, which turns out to be the class of games where the procedural egalitarian solution selects from the core. On this domain, which includes the class of large core games, these two axioms characterize the solution that assigns the core allocation which lexicographically minimizes the maximal payoffs. This solution even satisfies coalitional monotonicity (no member is worse off when the worth of one coalition increases) and strong egalitarian core selection (no other core allocation can be obtained by transfers from richer to poorer players).","wordCount":133,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Bas Dietzenbacher"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.03.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-edb299ed2bba5d36","title":"Make and Buy: Outsourcing, Vertical Integration, and Cost Reduction","abstract":"Globalization reshaped supply chains and the boundaries of firms in favor of outsourcing. Now, even vertically integrated firms procure substantially from external suppliers. To study procurement and the structure of firms in this reshaped economy, we analyze a model in which integration grants a downstream customer the option to source internally. Integration is advantageous because it allows the customer to avoid paying markups sometimes, but disadvantageous because it discourages investments in cost reduction by independent suppliers. The investment-discouragement effect more likely outweighs the markup-avoidance effect if the upstream market is more competitive, as is so in a more global economy.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Simon Loertscher","Michael Riordan"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20160347","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-edbd6a917bb9a946","title":"Inducing perspective-taking for prosocial behaviour in natural resource management","abstract":"Natural resource management often involves social dilemmas which other-regarding preferences and pro-social behaviour can help overcome. Interventions that induce resource users to consider a perspective broader than their own may help promote pro-social behaviour. Such interventions are often applied in participatory resource management approaches. To the best of our knowledge, nonetheless, no previous study has isolated and assessed the effect of inducing perspective-taking on natural resource users’ prosocial behaviour. In this study, we do so in the context of watershed management. We conducted a lab-in-the-field experiment with downstream farmers in a Peruvian watershed. In the experiment, participants were induced to imagine the perspective of upstream farmers before deciding on a donation that can help the latter improve their well-being without compromising the water supply downstream. We find that inducing perspective-taking increases unilateral prosocial behaviour. This effect cannot fully be explained by the additional information on the social and ecological characteristics of the watershed received during the perspective-taking experience. Rather the effect of the perspective-taking intervention is likely to work by inducing other-regarding preferences. Our results contribute to the study of pro-social behaviour in natural resource management and the ways in which it could be induced by interventions targeting other-regarding preferences.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Juan Felipe Ortiz-Riomalo","Ann‐Kathrin Koessler","Stefanie Engel"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102513","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-edc06dba5d73b209","title":"Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and the Adjustment of Local Employment","abstract":"By exploiting a commuting policy that led to a sharp and unexpected inflow of Czech workers to areas along the German-Czech border, we examine the impact of an exogenous immigration-induced labor supply shock on local wages and employment of natives. On average, the supply shock leads to a moderate decline in local native wages and a sharp decline in local native employment. These average effects mask considerable heterogeneity across groups: while younger natives experience larger wage effects, employment responses are particularly pronounced for older natives. This pattern is inconsistent with standard models of immigration but can be accounted for by a model that allows for a larger labor supply elasticity or a higher degree of wage rigidity for older than for young workers. We further show that the employment response is almost entirely driven by diminished inflows of natives into work rather than outflows into other areas or nonemployment, suggesting that “outsiders” shield “insiders” from the increased competition.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Christian Dustmann","Uta Schönberg","Jan Stuhler"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw032","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-edca84069ab9a9ea","title":"Oil price volatility: Industrial production and special aggregates","abstract":"Previous research shows that volatility in oil prices has tended to depress output, as measured by nonresidential investment, gross domestic product, and aggregated measures of industrial production in several countries. This paper investigates the effect of oil price volatility on disaggregated measures of industrial production. The disaggregated measures that we examine are the special aggregates by market groups as calculated by the Federal Reserve Board. Our results are reported for three categories of special aggregates: indexes for industrial production excluding two major industries (technology and motor vehicles), energy-related special aggregates, and non-energy-related special aggregates. Our results indicate that among energy-related market groups, the effects of oil price volatility are concentrated in activities related to primary energy generation and oil and gas drilling. Among non-energy-related market groups, oil price volatility affects a broad range of special aggregates, including aggregates sorted by consumer goods and business equipment.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["John P. Elder"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510051600047x","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-edceb2d1ba73f6e4","title":"Robust estimation of the range-based GARCH model: Forecasting volatility, value at risk and expected shortfall of cryptocurrencies","abstract":"Traditional volatility models do not work well when volatility changes rapidly and in the presence of outliers. Therefore, two lines of improvements have been developed separately in the existing literature. Range-based models benefit from efficient volatility estimates based on low and high prices, while robust methods deal with outliers. We propose a range-based GARCH model with a bounded M-estimator, which combines these two improvements with a third new improvement: a modified robust method, which adds elasticity in treating the outliers. We apply this model to Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, Ethereum, and Litecoin and find that it forecasts variances, value at risk, and expected shortfall more accurately than the standard GARCH model, the standard range-based GARCH model, and the GARCH model with the robust estimation. Utilization of high and low prices joined with a novel treatment of outliers makes our model perform well during extreme periods when traditional volatility models fail.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Piotr Fiszeder","Marta Małecka","Péter Molnár"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106887","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-edd1e4df68d36050","title":"High Trade Costs and Their Consequences: An Estimated Dynamic Model of African Agricultural Storage and Trade","abstract":"Using a new intranational dataset of monthly grain prices and production and a new approach to identify cost parameters, I estimate and solve a dynamic model of agricultural storage and trade covering all 42 countries of continental sub-Saharan Africa. I find median trade costs over five times higher than elsewhere in the world. The potential welfare gains from reducing these costs are substantial, are driven by lower food prices, and can be achieved efficiently by investing in well-targeted trade corridors. A static annual model underestimates trade costs and welfare effects by failing to identify when trade occurs.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Obie Porteous"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170442","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-edddacaba4a0ac53","title":"Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?","abstract":"We study the development of bank lending in the USA after four large jumps in uncertainty using an event study approach. We find that more liquid banks slow down and lend less after a surge in uncertainty. Lending by smaller banks is also less responsive to increases in uncertainty, which points to an increased importance of bank–customer relationships. For capitalization, we find mixed evidence. These heterogeneities across banks suggest that declines in bank lending following increases in uncertainty result at least partly from a reduced supply of bank loans.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Burkhard Raunig","Johann Scharler","Friedrich Sindermann"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12211","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ede90a9a29b3118b","title":"Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts","abstract":"Do political institutions limit rent seeking by politicians? We study the transformation of petroleum rents, almost universally under direct government control, into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in offshore financial centers that specialize in secrecy and asset protection. Our main finding is that plausibly exogenous shocks to petroleum income are associated with significant increases in hidden wealth, but only when institutional checks and balances are weak. The results suggest that around 15% of the windfall gains accruing to petroleum-producing countries with autocratic rulers is diverted to secret accounts. We find very limited evidence that shocks to other types of income not directly controlled by governments affect hidden wealth.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Jørgen Juel Andersen","Niels Johannesen","David Dreyer Lassen","Elena Paltseva"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","E","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-edf3737032472098","title":"Multiproduct-Firm Oligopoly: An Aggregative Games Approach","abstract":"We develop an aggregative games approach to study oligopolistic price competition with multiproduct firms. We introduce a new class of IIA demand systems, derived from discrete/continuous choice, and nesting CES and logit demands. The associated pricing game with multiproduct firms is aggregative and a firm's optimal price vector can be summarized by a uni‐dimensional sufficient statistic, the ι‐markup. We prove existence of equilibrium using a nested fixed‐point argument, and provide conditions for equilibrium uniqueness. In equilibrium, firms may choose not to offer some products. We analyze the pricing distortions and provide monotone comparative statics. Under (nested) CES and logit demands, another aggregation property obtains: All relevant information for determining a firm's performance and competitive impact is contained in that firm's uni‐dimensional type. We extend the model to nonlinear pricing, quantity competition, general equilibrium, and demand systems with a nest structure. Finally, we discuss applications to merger analysis and international trade.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Volker Nocke","Nicolas Schutz"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14720","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-edfb2fd13ca5cc70","title":"Banking on the Confucian Clan: Why China Developed Financial Markets so Late","abstract":"Over the past millennium, China has relied on the Confucian clan to achieve interpersonal cooperation, focusing on kinship and neglecting the development of impersonal institutions needed for external finance. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the Confucian clan and financial markets are competing substitutes. Using the large cross-regional variation in the adoption of modern banks, we find that regions with historically stronger Confucian clans established significantly fewer modern banks in the four decades following the founding of China's first modern bank in 1897. Our evidence also shows that the clan continues to limit China's financial development today.","wordCount":99,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Zhiwu Chen","Chicheng Ma","Andrew J. Sinclair"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab082","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-edff4121c45eecdc","title":"Improving one’s choices by putting oneself in others’ shoes – An experimental analysis","abstract":"This paper investigates how letting people predict others’ choices under risk affects subsequent own choices. We find an improvement of strong rationality (risk neutrality) for losses in own choices, but no such improvement for gains. There is no improvement of weak rationality (avoiding preference reversals). Overall, risk aversion in own choices increases. Conversely, for the effects of own choices on predicting for others, the risk aversion predicted in others’ choices is reduced if preceded by own choices, for both gains and losses. Remarkably, we find a new probability matching paradox at the group level. Relative to preceding studies on the effects of predicting others’ choices, we added real incentives, pure framing effects, and simplicity of stimuli. Our stimuli were maximally targeted towards our research questions.","wordCount":125,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Zhihua Li","Kirsten I. M. Rohde","Peter P. Wakker"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9253-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee0de562158485ad","title":"Advertising, consumer awareness, and choice: evidence from the U.S. banking industry","abstract":"How does advertising influence consumer decisions and market outcomes? We utilize detailed data on consumer shopping behavior and choices over bank accounts to investigate the effects of advertising on the different stages of the shopping process: awareness, consideration, and choice. We formulate a structural model with costly search and endogenous consideration sets, and show that advertising in the U.S. banking industry is primarily a shifter of awareness as opposed to consideration or choice. Advertising makes consumers aware of more options, search more, and find better alternatives. This increases the market share of smaller banks and makes the industry more competitive.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Elisabeth Honka","Alı Hortaçsu","Maria Ana Vitorino"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12188","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ee10544005fb3bc0","title":"Gender differences in willingness to compete: The role of public observability","abstract":"A recent literature emphasizes that gender differences in the labor market may in part be driven by a gender gap in willingness to compete. However, whereas experiments in this literature typically investigate willingness to compete in private environments, real world competitions often have a more public nature, which introduces potential social image concerns. If such image concerns are important, and men and women differ in the degree to which they want to be seen as competitive, making tournament entry decisions publicly observable may further exacerbate the gender gap. We test this prediction using a laboratory experiment (N = 784) that varies the degree to which the decision to compete, and its outcome, is publicly observable. We find that public observability does not alter the magnitude of the gender gap in willingness to compete in an economically or statistically significant way.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Thomas Buser","Eva Ranehill","Roel van Veldhuizen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102366","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee1182ac7164a591","title":"The adoption of pesticide-free wheat production and farmers' perceptions of its environmental and health effects","abstract":"The reduction of pesticide use is a prime issue on policy agendas worldwide. However, existing policies often fail to promote widespread adoption of low-pesticide or no-pesticide production practices. Therefore, in order to overcome this obstacle, it is important to understand why farmers hesitate to use more sustainable pest management. To this end, we investigate the relationship between farmers' perception of the adverse environmental and human health effects generated by pesticides and their decision to participate in a novel, pesticide-free wheat production standard in Switzerland. Survey data from 1073 wheat producers reveals that 14% are early adopters of the pesticide-free wheat production program and a further 44% intend to switch to this production scheme in following growing seasons. We find that farmers who perceive risks of pesticides for the environment and human health to be higher are also more likely to adopt pesticide-free production. Our results suggest that a large-scale adoption of pesticide-free production requires a broad set of (policy) instruments beyond purely financial incentives. Our findings thus have important implications for the design of sustainable production schemes.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Robert Finger","Niklas Möhring"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107463","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee1f5cb58063f9d3","title":"Leaders as role models and ‘belief managers’ in social dilemmas","abstract":"We investigate the link between leadership, beliefs and pro-social behavior in social dilemmas. This link is interesting because field evidence suggests that people's behavior in domains like charitable giving, tax evasion, corporate culture and corruption is influenced by leaders (CEOs, politicians) and beliefs about others’ behavior. Our framework is a repeated experimental public goods game with and without a leader who makes a contribution to the public good before others (the followers). We find that leaders strongly shape their followers’ initial beliefs and contributions. In later rounds, followers put more weight on other followers’ past behavior than on the leader's current action. This creates a path dependency the leader can hardly correct. We discuss the implications for understanding belief effects in naturally occurring situations.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Simon Gächter","Elke Renner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.08.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee29c9f185a37cdc","title":"The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy","abstract":"We present a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy, the deposits channel. We show that when the Fed funds rate rises, banks widen the spreads they charge on deposits, and deposits flow out of the banking system. We present a model where this is due to market power in deposit markets. Consistent with the market power mechanism, deposit spreads increase more and deposits flow out more in concentrated markets. This is true even when we control for lending opportunities by only comparing different branches of the same bank. Since deposits are the main source of liquid assets for households, the deposits channel can explain the observed strong relationship between the liquidity premium and the Fed funds rate. Since deposits are also a uniquely stable funding source for banks, the deposits channel impacts bank lending. When the Fed funds rate rises, banks that raise deposits in concentrated markets contract their lending by more than other banks. Our estimates imply that the deposits channel can account for the entire transmission of monetary policy through bank balance sheets.","wordCount":177,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Itamar Drechsler","Alexi Savov","Philipp Schnabl"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx019","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ee353a7264de7faf","title":"Choose for others as you would choose for yourself? A layered analysis of probabilistic preferential choice across social distances","abstract":"The present study examines the effect of social distance on choice behavior through the lens of a probabilistic modeling framework. In an experiment, participants made incentive-compatible choices between lotteries in three different social distance conditions: self, friend, and stranger. We conduct a layered, within-subjects analysis that considers four properties of preferential choice. These properties vary in their granularity. At the coarsest level, we test whether choices are consistent with transitive underlying preferences. At a finer level of granularity, we evaluate whether each participant is best described as having fixed preferences with random errors or probabilistic preferences with error-free choices. In the latter case, we further distinguish three different bounds on response error rates. At the finest level, we identify the specific transitive preference ranking of the choice options that best describes a person’s choices. At each level of the analysis, we find that the stability between the self and friend conditions exceeds that between the self and stranger conditions. Stability increases with the coarseness of the analysis: Nearly all people are consistent with transitive preferences regardless of the social distance condition, but only for very few do we infer the same preference ranking in every social distance condition. Overall, while it matters whether one makes a choice on behalf of a friend versus for a stranger, the differences are most apparent when analyzing the data at a detailed level of granularity.","wordCount":231,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Daniel R. Cavagnaro","Yang Xiao-zhi","Michel Regenwetter"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102754","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee47f1e0ed08bed5","title":"The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism","abstract":"Uncertainty and safety issues limit the expansion of the tourism sector. Previous literature has explored the impact of security problems on tourist flows, especially terrorism. However, the difficulty of measuring tourism in monetary terms has limited the ability to evaluate the economic costs of security and uncertainty. This paper brings together a worldwide gravity model for international tourist arrivals from 1995 to 2016 and an inter-country input-output model for estimating the economic impact of terrorism, corruption and economic policy uncertainty in monetary terms. The research provides estimates of variations in tourist arrivals and value added under different scenarios, ranging from total security to maximum insecurity and uncertainty values at country and regional levels. Results show that the value added generated by tourism would increase by 14.3% if uncertainty and insecurity in each of the countries fell to their minimum level, and would decrease by 17.5% if they increased to their maximum level.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Casiano Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate","María Santana-Gallego","Elisabeth Valle"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105892","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ee4f8d8e68710007","title":"Undisclosed material inflation risk","abstract":"We identify many major U.S. corporations that are highly exposed to inflation risk. Yet, although the SEC legally requires disclosing possible risk factors, more than 61% of the inflation-exposed corporations do not disclose inflation risk. However, after being sued in a securities class action lawsuit, while all firms increase the length of their reported risk factor texts, only inflation-exposed firms are more likely to begin disclosing inflation risk. Simulations using calibrated parameters from our models reveal that 2%–6% inflation shocks over the subsequent three years result in market cap damages of $0.9 to $2.8 trillion for shareholders of inflation-exposed firms that never disclosed this risk. The inadequate inflation risk disclosure holds after allowing risk to be time varying, controlling for firm/industry characteristics, and/or exploiting a quasi-natural experiment that identifies causal effects and controls for possible unobservable factors. The evidence is consistent with corporate managers paying inadequate attention to inflation risk. Our framework enables identification and evaluation of stock price drop damages, especially for firms with inadequate risk disclosures, possibly improving disclosure practices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy transmission.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Yaniv Konchitchki","Jin Xie"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ee524172c2f8296b","title":"Conflicts increased in Africa shortly after COVID-19 lockdowns, but welfare assistance reduced fatalities","abstract":"Understanding how rises in local prices affect food-related conflicts is essential for crafting adequate social welfare responses, particularly in settings with an already high level of food vulnerability. We contribute to the literature by examining how rises in local food prices and the lockdowns implemented to contain the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic affected conflict. We analyze real-time conflict data for 24 African countries during 2015-2020, welfare responses to COVID-19, changes in local food prices, and georeferenced data on areas with cultivation, oil, mines, all associated with differentiated risk of conflict. We find that the probability of experiencing food-related conflicts, food looting, riots, and violence against civilians increased shortly after the first strict lockdowns of 2020. Increases in local prices led to increases in violence against civilians. However, countries that timely provided more welfare assistance saw a reduction in the probability of experiencing these conflicts and in the number of associated fatalities. Our results suggest that providing urgent aid and assistance to those who need it can help reduce violence and save lives.","wordCount":174,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Roxana Gutiérrez‐Romero"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105991","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ee53399e4cc6a8ff","title":"Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education and Norms","abstract":"We document the evolution of gender inequality in labour market outcomes—earnings, labour supply and wage rates—over the path of economic development, and present evidence on the potential reasons for this evolution. To this end, we have created a micro database that compiles 248 surveys from 53 countries between 1967 and 2014, covering a wide range of per capita income levels. There is large convergence in the earnings of men and women over the path of development, driven by female labour force participation and wage rates. We argue that the single most important factor behind this convergence is demographic transition: the effects of children on gender gaps (‘child penalties’) are large at both low and high levels of development, but fertility declines drastically over the growth process and thus reduces the aggregate implications of children. We also document gender convergence in educational attainment and consider its effects on earnings inequality, arguing that these are significant but less dramatic than the effects of fertility. Finally, we document striking changes in the values or norms surrounding the role of women with children, implying that such changes could serve as a reinforcing mechanism for gender convergence.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Henrik Kleven","Camille Landais"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12230","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ee5e4e9132d255bd","title":"The role of public external knowledge for firm innovativeness","abstract":"Public research organizations (PROs) and universities receive large amounts of public funding for the generation and transmission of knowledge, and companies contract external knowledge from both. An important question for the management of a firm's R&D and for public innovation policies is: What is more beneficial for the generation of firm innovations, external knowledge created by PROs or by universities? In this paper, we assess the impact of external knowledge from PROs versus universities on firm innovativeness. We use information on R&D acquisitions from a panel dataset of more than 10,000 Spanish firms from 2005 to 2014. We show that external knowledge from PROs and universities increases firm innovativeness. Our results suggest that knowledge generated by PROs is more sensitive to the absorptive capacity of the firm than knowledge generated by universities. This has implications for research policy, R&D management, and organizational strategies of firms’ knowledge activities. Firms with low absorptive capacities benefit relatively more from knowledge generated by universities than from knowledge generated by PROs. Moreover, R&D managers should plan both their external and internal R&D if they acquire external R&D from PROs.","wordCount":184,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["María García‐Vega","Óscar Vicente-Chirivella"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103056","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee631222e1862796","title":"Pay all subjects or pay only some? An experiment on decision-making under risk and ambiguity","abstract":"We investigate the validity of a double random incentive system where only a subset of subjects is paid for one of their choices. By focusing on individual decision-making under risk and ambiguity, we show that using either a standard random incentive system, where all subjects are paid, or a double random system, where only 10% of subjects are paid, yields similar preference elicitation results. These findings suggest that adopting a double random incentive system could significantly reduce experimental costs and logistic efforts, thereby facilitating the exploration of individual decision-making in larger-scale and higher-stakes experiments.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Ilke Aydogan","Loïc Berger","Vincent Théroude"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102757","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ee63450943b0c163","title":"Sanitary infrastructures and the decline of mortality in Germany, 1877–1913","abstract":"Clean water provision is considered crucial for eradicating waterborne diseases. However, the benefits of piped water can be limited in environments characterized by the inadequate storage and disposal of waste. This article studies the impact of waterworks and sewerage on mortality in German cities during the period 1877–1913. The results show that the supply of safe drinking water reduced the number of deaths, although to a lower extent than suggested previously. In the absence of efficient systems of sewage removal, contact with faeces and water contamination created a favourable environment for the spread of enteric ailments, offsetting some of the positive effects of waterworks. Moreover, the study shows that sanitary investments had important heterogeneous effects. First, their impact was markedly lower in municipalities with high levels of economic inequality and employment in the textile sector. Second, cities located in non‐Prussian territories experienced lower declines in mortality following the construction of sanitary infrastructures. The results in this article highlight the importance of analysing public health measures jointly as well as their interaction with local socioeconomic and institutional factors to understand historical progress against ill health and premature death.","wordCount":187,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Daniel Gallardo‐Albarrán"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12942","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee6633247ecd29c5","title":"CEO networks and the labor market for directors","abstract":"Directors at firms with well-connected CEOs are more likely to obtain directorships at firms that are connected to the CEOs. Recommended directors do not become beholden to the CEO. Reciprocity is an important determinant of recommendations because CEOs are more likely to recommend their directors if they received help from their network filling vacant board positions. CEOs also benefit strategically from the additional appointments of their directors. Analyses of appointment announcement returns and director election results show that shareholders are not concerned by such recommendations. The results highlight the importance of CEOs as intermediaries in the director labor market.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Hyemin Kim","Rüdiger Fahlenbrach","Angie Low"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.11.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee7dd624c02da374","title":"CRIX an Index for cryptocurrencies","abstract":"The cryptocurrency market is unique on many levels: Very volatile, frequently changing market structure, emerging and vanishing of cryptocurrencies on a daily level. Following its development became a difficult task with the success of cryptocurrencies (CCs) other than Bitcoin. For fiat currency markets, the IMF offers the index SDR and, prior to the EUR, the ECU existed, which was an index representing the development of European currencies. Index providers decide on a fixed number of index constituents which will represent the market segment. It is a challenge to fix a number and develop rules for the constituents in view of the market changes. In the frequently changing CC market, this challenge is even more severe. A method relying on the AIC is proposed to quickly react to market changes and therefore enable us to create an index, referred to as CRIX, for the cryptocurrency market. CRIX is chosen by model selection such that it represents the market well to enable each interested party studying economic questions in this market and to invest into the market. The diversified nature of the CC market makes the inclusion of altcoins in the index product critical to improve tracking performance. We have shown that assigning optimal weights to altcoins helps to reduce the tracking errors of a CC portfolio, despite the fact that their market cap is much smaller relative to Bitcoin. The codes used here are available via www.quantlet.de.","wordCount":236,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Simon Trimborn","Wolfgang Karl Härdle"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","L","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2018.08.004","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-ee7dfe68a503c589","title":"Cash transfers before pregnancy and infant health","abstract":"We estimate the impact of a cash transfer targeting new mothers on their subsequent children's health outcomes at birth. We exploit the unexpected introduction of a generous, universal child benefit in Spain in 2007. Using population-wide, individual-level, high-quality administrative data from birth records and a regression discontinuity approach, we find that women who received the benefit were much less likely to have low-birth-weight children in the future (while their subsequent fertility was unaffected). The overall effect is driven by poor women, unmarried women, and women with low education, and by births taking place relatively soon after the benefit receipt. The €2500 transfer led to a 0.7 percentage-point decline in the fraction of children born under 1500 g in poorer households in the following five years, an 83% reduction. We explore the underlying channels, and find evidence supporting faster intrauterine growth, possibly driven by better maternal health, nutrition, and behaviors. Gestation length, family structure, and parental employment do not seem to play a role. Recent research suggests that targeting pregnant women may be more effective than later interventions (such as cash transfers to families with children), given the strong persistence of fetal health effects. Our results suggest that the impact may be stronger if women are targeted even earlier, before conception.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Libertad González","Sofia Karina Trommlerová"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102622","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ee80082a510ba602","title":"Unemployment and Effort at Work","abstract":"We measure the sensitivity of work effort to local labour market conditions using self‐reported non‐work at the workplace in the American Time Use Survey ( ATUS ) 2003–12. Non‐work at work is quantitatively significant and varies positively with local unemployment, but in opposite directions at the extensive and intensive margins. The fraction of workers reporting positive values declines with unemployment, while time spent in non‐work conditional on any such time rises with unemployment. The results speak to issues of labour hoarding, efficiency wages and the cyclicality of labour productivity. We also demonstrate a relationship between the incidence of non‐work and unemployment benefits in state data linked to the ATUS . There are also pronounced occupational differences in the incidence and intensity of non‐work.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Michael C. Burda","Katie R. Genadek","Daniel S. Hamermesh"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12324","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ee95e8d273d1b837","title":"Short term response of Chinese stock markets to the outbreak of COVID-19","abstract":"China’s economy and the Asian stock markets have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. This article used an event study method to calculate the abnormal returns (AR) in the 10 trading days following the outbreak, from which it was found that both the Chinese and Asian stock markets had significantly declined, with the cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) remaining negative in all the examined event window periods. This article also analysed the different industry index responses to the epidemic, from which it was found that the pharmaceutical manufacturing, software and IT services both had positive CAR, while transportation, lodging and catering had negative CAR during the event window. These results reflected the investors’ expectations for the different industries and the economy as a whole under the outbreak of the contagious coronavirus.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["HaiYue Liu","Yile Wang","Dongmei He","Cangyu Wang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1776837","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eea054f8c0e76e08","title":"Dirty density: Air quality and the density of American cities","abstract":"We study the effect of urban density on the exposure of city dwellers to air pollution using data from the United States urban system. Exploiting geological features to instrument for density, we find an economically and statistically significant pollution-density elasticity of 0.14. We assess the health implications of these estimates and find that increased density in an average city leads to sizeable mortality costs. Our findings highlight the possible trade-off between reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, which is associated with denser cities according to prior empirical research, and preserving local air quality and human health within cities.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Felipe Carozzi","Sefi Roth"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102767","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eea2fe22909e1742","title":"Dynamic Privacy Choices","abstract":"I study a dynamic model of consumer privacy and platform data collection. In each period consumers choose their level of platform activity. Greater activity generates more information about the consumer, thereby increasing platform profits. When the platform can commit to the future privacy policy, it collects information by committing to gradually decreasing the level of privacy protection. In the long run consumers lose privacy and receive low payoffs but choose high activity levels. In contrast, the platform with weaker commitment power may attain the commitment outcome or fail to collect any data depending on consumer expectations regarding future privacy protection.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Shota Ichihashi"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20210100","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eebd013b62315d9b","title":"Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe","abstract":"A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out implied interest rates from exchange rates. The analysis presented in this article is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c . 1383–1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non‐usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.","wordCount":192,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Adrian R. Bell","Chris Brooks","Tony K. Moore"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"B","allJels":["B","N"],"subfieldLabel":"History of Economic Thought / B","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12374","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eec12e2b4be76542","title":"Identifying Latent Structures in Panel Data","abstract":"This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized techniques. We consider both linear and nonlinear models where the regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are considered—penalized profile likelihood (PPL) estimation for the general nonlinear models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) estimation for linear models with endogeneity. In both cases, we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier‐Lasso (C‐Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group‐specific coefficients. C‐Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and consistent estimation in a single step and the classification exhibits the desirable property of uniform consistency. For PPL estimation, C‐Lasso also achieves the oracle property so that group‐specific parameter estimators are asymptotically equivalent to infeasible estimators that use individual group identity information. For PGMM estimation, the oracle property of C‐Lasso is preserved in some special cases. Simulations demonstrate good finite‐sample performance of the approach in both classification and estimation. Empirical applications to both linear and nonlinear models are presented.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Liangjun Su","Zhentao Shi","Peter C.B. Phillips"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12560","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-eed448807752325f","title":"The measurement of the value of a language","abstract":"We address the problem of assessing the value of a language. We consider a stylized model of multilingual societies in which we introduce axioms formalizing the principles of impartiality, monotonicity, invariance and consistency. We show that the combination of these axioms characterizes a family of communicative benefit functions which assign a value to each language in the society. The functions within the family involve a two-step procedure. First, they identify the groups of agents that can communicate in each language. Second, each group is assigned an aggregate (size-dependent) value, which is evenly divided among the languages in which the group can communicate. Our novel approach could be useful in a wide range of empirical applications and policy decisions.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Jorge Alcalde–Unzu","Juan D. Moreno‐Ternero","Shlomo Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105468","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eedba09bca5a2a13","title":"Railways and cities in India","abstract":"Using a new dataset on city populations in colonial India, we show that the railroad network increased city size in the period 1881 to 1931. Our baseline estimation approach includes fixed effects for city and year, and we construct instrumental variables for railroad proximity based on distance from a least cost path spanning cities that existed prior to the start of railroad construction. Cities that increased market access due to the railroad grew. The small and heterogeneous effects we find are driven largely by cities that were initially small and isolated.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["James Fenske","Namrata Kala","Jinlin Wei"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103038","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eeea2bbba94d0df2","title":"Complex pricing and consumer-side attention","abstract":"This paper analyzes a market in which two horizontally differentiated firms compete by setting menus of two-part tariffs, and some consumers are not informed about the linear per-unit price component. We consider two regulatory interventions that limit firms' ability to price discriminate: (i) diminishing the range of contracts by reducing the number of two-part tariffs offered (which prohibits inter-group price discrimination); and (ii) reducing tariff complexity by abolishing linear fees (which prohibits inter-group and intra-group price discrimination). We characterize the effects of these interventions on firm profits and consumer welfare, and we identify conditions for the optimal regulatory policy. Our results provide insights for the evaluation of policy interventions.","wordCount":109,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Christian Fischer-Thöne","Alexander Rasch","Tobias Wenzel"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103142","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-eef38bf81a0ed7cf","title":"Do Public-Private-Partnership-Enabling Laws Increase Private Investment in Transportation Infrastructure?","abstract":"The use of public-private partnerships (PPPs) is an important development in infrastructure delivery. These contracts between a public-sector owner and a private provider bundle delivery services and provide a middle ground between traditional delivery and privatization. As of 2016, 35 states had enacted PPP-enabling laws that address such questions as the mixing of public- and private-sector funds, the treatment of unsolicited PPP proposals, and the need for prior legislative contract approval. We provide the first comprehensive empirical assessment of the laws’ impact on the utilization of private investment. We analyze the effect of a state having a PPP-enabling law and a law’s average impact. We also assess the impact of PPP-enabling-law provisions. We find that provisions that empower PPPs, such as exemptions from property taxes, exemptions from extant procurement laws, and confidentiality protections, attract private investment.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Daniel Albalate","Germà Bel","R. Richard Geddes"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/706247","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-eef4926bee227866","title":"Comparing generalized median voter schemes according to their manipulability","abstract":"We propose a simple criterion to compare generalized median voter schemes according to their manipulability. We identify three necessary and sufficient conditions for the comparability of two generalized median voter schemes in terms of their vulnerability to manipulation. The three conditions are stated using the two associated families of monotonic fixed ballots and depend very much on the power each agent has to unilaterally change the outcomes of the two generalized median voter schemes. We perform a specific analysis of all median voter schemes: the anonymous subfamily of generalized median voter schemes.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["R. Pablo Arribillaga","Jordi Massó"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1910","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ef09b6e723ec9188","title":"QALYs, DALYs, and HALYs: A unifying framework for the evaluation of population health","abstract":"We provide a unifying framework for the evaluation of population health. We formalize several axioms for social preferences over distributions of health. We show that a specific combination of those axioms characterizes a large class of population health evaluation functions combining concerns for quality of life, quantity of life and health shortfalls. We refer to the class as (unweighted) aggregations of health-adjusted life years (HALYs). Two focal (and somewhat polar) members of this family are the (unweighted) aggregations of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We also provide new characterization results for these focal members that enable us to scrutinize their normative foundations and shed new light on their similarities and differences.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Juan D. Moreno‐Ternero","Trine Tornøe Platz","Lars Peter Østerdal"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102714","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ef0de4566f1cb8e7","title":"Menu mechanisms","abstract":"We investigate menu mechanisms: dynamic mechanisms where at each history, an agent selects from a menu of his possible assignments. We consider both ex-post implementation and full implementation for a strengthening of dominance that covers off-path histories, and provide conditions under which menu mechanisms provide these implementations of rules. Our results cover a variety of environments, including matching with contracts, labor markets, auctions, school choice, marriage, object allocation, and elections.","wordCount":70,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Andrew Mackenzie","Yu Zhou"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105511","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ef1251707fbaa2bf","title":"European Natural Gas Markets: Taking Stock and Looking Forward","abstract":"Recent natural gas price dynamics in Europe show convergence to the extent that locational price differentials approached transport tariffs, and hence, arbitrage was largely saturated: a sign of a well-functioning pan-European gas wholesale market. This contribution seeks to understand how we got to where we are in terms of the evolution of the gas industry structure in Europe and its institutional setup. It does so using a transaction-cost economics framework. The paper concludes that the move—which is still ongoing—towards a single market in gas has allowed European gas consumers to benefit from transparently set market-based wholesale prices and increased market competition among suppliers. However, as the gas market in Europe matures and with the increased penetration of renewable energy generation in the electricity sector as well as the overall decarbonisation of the energy sector in Europe, the gas market and its current regulatory regime face a number of challenges. Addressing these challenges may require an update of the current market design and possibly drastic reforms of tariff-setting for the gas transport market.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Chi Kong Chyong"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-019-09697-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ef2240758f1da76e","title":"Should I Care or Should I Work? The Impact of Work on Informal Care","abstract":"This paper provides novel evidence on how a sharp increase in labor force participation among older women affects the provision of informal care to their older parents. Based on data from Understanding Society – The UK Household Longitudinal Study, we use an instrumental variable approach that exploits a unique reform that increased the female State Pension age by up to six years. Our results provide evidence of a trade‐off between the intensive margin of work and informal care provided outside the household: an increase of 10 hours of work per week reduces the provision of informal care by 2.1 hours a week, which amounts to roughly £2,100 of yearly care‐hours lost. This reduction in caregiving is largest among women working in physically or psychosocially demanding jobs, and “sandwich generation” women who have both a living grandchild and a parent alive. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we show that older parents whose daughters became ineligible to claim their pensions experienced a significant reduction in the amount of care they receive from their daughters, which was not compensated by an increase in formal care or other sources of support. Our results suggest that policies that increase older workers’ labor supply require changes in long‐term care policy that compensate for the loss of informal care.","wordCount":216,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Ludovico Carrino","Vahé Nafilyan","Mauricio Avendaño"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22457","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ef2a775b085928bc","title":"A qualitative meta-synthesis of the benefits of eco-labeling in developing countries","abstract":"Eco-labeling (or environmental certification) is often promoted as a regulatory instrument capable of incentivizing sustainable resource use, even in the absence of stringent government environmental regulations. Despite slow uptake in developing countries and high producer costs, a growing body of case study evidence suggests that producers benefit in varied ways from certification. A qualitative meta-synthesis approach is applied to this body of evidence in order to assess the type and extent of producer benefits reported in case studies of Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification, in developing countries. While benefits from price premiums and market access appear to be limited, less tangible benefits were more common, including learning, governance, community empowerment, and reputational benefits. These benefits may justify the cost of certification.","wordCount":126,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Anna Carlson","Charles Palmer"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.03.020","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-ef327f33dcde6db7","title":"First‐price auctions with budget constraints","abstract":"Consider a first‐price sealed‐bid auction with interdependent valuations and private budget constraints. Focusing on the two‐bidder case, we identify new sufficient conditions for the existence of a symmetric equilibrium in pure strategies. In equilibrium, agents may adopt discontinuous bidding strategies that result in a stratification of competition along the budget dimension. Private budgets can simultaneously lead to more aggressive bidding (a high‐budget agent leverages his wealth to outbid rivals) and more subdued bidding (competition becomes less intense among bidders at distinct budget levels). The presence of budget constraints may lead to multiple symmetric equilibria in the first‐price auction.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Maciej H. Kotowski"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2982","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ef33956467b2151e","title":"Global Collaborative Patents","abstract":"We study the prevalence and traits of global collaborative patents for U.S. public companies, where the inventor team is located both within and outside of the United States. Collaborative patents are frequently observed when a corporation is entering into a new foreign region for innovative work, especially in settings where intellectual property protection is weak. We also connect collaborative patents to the ethnic composition of the firm’s U.S. inventors and cross-border mobility of inventors within the firm. The inventor team composition has important consequences for how the new knowledge is exploited within and outside of the firm.","wordCount":97,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Sari Pekkala Kerr","William R. Kerr"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12369","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ef41c54b4dabeb86","title":"The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt’s Arab Spring","abstract":"Unprecedented street protests brought down Mubarak's government and ushered in an era of competition between three rival political groups in Egypt. Using daily variation in the number of protesters, we document that more intense protests are associated with lower stock market valuations for firms connected to the group currently in power relative to non-connected firms, but have no impact on the relative valuations of firms connected to rival groups. These results suggest that street protests serve as a partial check on political rent-seeking. General discontent expressed on Twitter predicts protests but has no direct effect on valuations.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Tarek A. Hassan","Ahmed Tahoun"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx086","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ef47d2fce0d7d521","title":"The Effect of English Language Learner Reclassification on Student ACT Scores, High School Graduation, and Postsecondary Enrollment: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Wisconsin","abstract":"The recent increase in the number of students classified as English language learners (ELLs) has focused significant attention on reclassification policy, which governs the process by which ELLs move toward, and are deemed to reach, full English proficiency. In this paper, we draw on a data set containing annual individual‐level records for every Wisconsin student ever classified as an ELL between the 2006–07 and 2012–13 school years to estimate the effects of being reclassified at the end of 10th grade—a crucial period on the pathway to postsecondary education—on several measures related to students’ postsecondary attainments. We estimate these effects in a regression discontinuity framework, exploiting Wisconsin's policy rule that automatically reclassifies ELLs who score above a specified cutoff on the state's English language proficiency exam. Our analysis indicates that being reclassified as fully English proficient in 10th grade has a positive effect on students’ ACT scores. It also provides some evidence of a positive effect on high school graduation and the probability of enrolling in a postsecondary institution the fall after graduation. Together, our analyses provide evidence on the effects of a policy directly relevant to the country's fastest growing student population, and we close the paper with a discussion of the implications for research and policy.","wordCount":207,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Deven Carlson","Jared E. Knowles"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21908","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ef5e378752f41bf3","title":"Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan","abstract":"Can mobile phone data improve program targeting? By combining rich survey data from a “big push” anti-poverty program in Afghanistan with detailed mobile phone logs from program beneficiaries, we study the extent to which machine learning methods can accurately differentiate ultra-poor households eligible for program benefits from ineligible households. We show that machine learning methods leveraging mobile phone data can identify ultra-poor households nearly as accurately as survey-based measures of consumption and wealth; and that combining survey-based measures with mobile phone data produces classifications more accurate than those based on a single data source.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Emily Aiken","Guadalupe Bedoya","Joshua Blumenstock","Aidan Coville"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ef62ad5e3d9d496f","title":"Global drug diffusion and innovation with the medicines patent pool","abstract":"This paper studies the impact of the first joint licensing platform for patented drugs, the Medicines Patent Pool, on global drug diffusion and innovation. The pool allows generic firms worldwide to license drug bundles cheaply and conveniently for sales in a set of developing countries. I construct a novel dataset from licensing contracts, public procurement, clinical trials, and drug approvals. Using difference-in-differences methods, I find that the pool leads to substantial increases in the generic supply of drugs purchased, particularly in countries with stronger patent protection. In addition, there are some positive increases in clinical trials and drug product approvals after a compound enters the pool, mostly by firms outside the pool.","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Lucy Xiaolu Wang"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102671","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ef73531319c6223b","title":"The presence of laws and mandates is associated with increased social norm enforcement","abstract":"Policy makers often implement laws or mandates to attempt to change people’s behavior. Such policies act not only as deterrents, but also as societal signposts for what is considered morally right and wrong within a society. In this paper we argue that the presence of laws and mandates may be associated with citizens’ inclination to engage in social norm enforcement within their own network. We studied this using four different datasets in different settings (text-and-drive laws, influenza vaccination mandates, speed limit laws, and COVID-19 mask mandates), in three different countries (total N = 3,156). In all datasets, we found associations between mandates or laws and the inclination to socially confront norm violators. This is in line with our theorizing that mandates and laws may help to increase citizens’ inclination to engage in social norm enforcement, and to foster interpersonal policing of behavior, inviting future research to establish more direct causal conclusions in this regard.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Laetitia B. Mulder","Tim Kurz","Annayah Miranda Beatrice Prosser","Miguel A. Fonseca"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102703","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ef791fc52a228c51","title":"The roles of export diversification and composite country risks in carbon emissions abatement: evidence from the signatories of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement","abstract":"The ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement has laid the platform for the signatory nations to boost their respective economic growth rates, and also raised environmental concerns. So far, little is known regarding the roles of export diversification and the composite risk index in the abatement of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the RCEP countries. Accordingly, this study investigates the impacts of export diversification and composite risk index on CO2 emissions for the RCEP countries between 1987 and 2017. The empirical findings indicate that lowering the composite risk index, undertaking a transition to renewable energy, and enhancing environmentally-related technological innovations help reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. In contrast, export diversification is found to monotonically boost CO2 emission levels. The findings also authenticate the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis to certify that the economic growth of the RCEP nations will be both an initial contributor and ultimate inhibitor of CO2 emissions. In line with these findings, it is important to lower the country risk profiles of the RCEP nations, restructure the export diversification schemes, ensure technological advancement and expedite economic growth in an environmentally-friendly manner.","wordCount":189,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Zeeshan Khan","Muntasir Murshed","Kangyin Dong","Yang Siqun"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1907289","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ef82ada8116dcc34","title":"Characterization and uniqueness of equilibrium in competitive insurance","abstract":"This paper provides a complete characterization of equilibria in a game-theoretic version of Rothschild and Stiglitz's (1976) model of competitive insurance. I allow for stochastic contract offers by insurance firms and show that a unique symmetric equilibrium always exists. Exact conditions under which the equilibrium involves mixed strategies are provided. The mixed equilibrium features (i) cross-subsidization across risk levels, (ii) dependence of offers on the risk distribution, and (iii) price dispersion generated by firm randomization over offers.","wordCount":77,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Vitor Farinha Luz"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te2166","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ef88b93f4105abd8","title":"Non-standard errors in asset pricing: Mind your sorts","abstract":"Non-standard errors capture variation due to differences in research design choices. We document large variation in design choices in the context of asset pricing factor models and find that the average ratio of the non-standard error to the standard error across factors exceeds one. Using NAN breakpoints instead of NYSE breakpoints improves the average Sharpe ratios the most, from 0.46 to 0.63. Other important design choices relate to excluding microcaps, industry-adjusting, and the rebalancing frequency, which highlights the need for researchers to clearly describe and motivate these choices.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Amar Soebhag","Bart van Vliet","Patrick Verwijmeren"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101517","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ef8b144ce628c0f3","title":"Intersecting near-optimal spaces: European power systems with more resilience to weather variability","abstract":"We suggest a new methodology for designing robust energy systems. For this, we investigate so-called near-optimal solutions to energy system optimisation models; solutions whose objective values deviate only marginally from the optimum. Using a refined method for obtaining explicit geometric descriptions of these near-optimal feasible spaces, we find designs that are as robust as possible to perturbations. This contributes to the ongoing debate on how to define and work with robustness in energy systems modelling. We apply our methods in an investigation using multiple decades of weather data. For the first time, we run a capacity expansion model of the European power system (one node per country) with a three-hourly temporal resolution and 41 years of weather data. While an optimisation with 41 weather years is at the limits of computational feasibility, we use the near-optimal feasible spaces of single years to gain an understanding of the design space over the full time period. Specifically, we intersect all near-optimal feasible spaces for the individual years in order to get designs that are likely to be feasible over the entire time period. We find significant potential for investment flexibility, and verify the feasibility of these designs by simulating the resulting dispatch problem with four decades of weather data. They are characterised by a shift towards more onshore wind and solar power, while emitting more than 50% less CO2 than a cost-optimal solution over that period. Our work builds on recent developments in the field, including techniques such as Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) and Modelling All Alternatives (MAA), and provides new insights into the geometry of near-optimal feasible spaces and the importance of multi-decade weather variability for energy systems design. We also provide an effective way of working with a multi-decade time frame in a highly parallelised manner. Our implementation is open-sourced, adaptable and is based on PyPSA-Eur.","wordCount":307,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Aleksander Grochowicz","Koen van Greevenbroek","Fred Espen Benth","Marianne Zeyringer"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106496","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-efa1890fdc2a5399","title":"Quasi-experimental evidence for the causal link between fertility and subjective well-being","abstract":"This article presents causal evidence on the impact of fertility on women’s subjective well-being using quasi-experimental variation due to preferences for a mixed sibling sex composition (having at least one child of each sex). Based on a large sample of women from 35 developing countries, I find that having children increases mothers’ life satisfaction and happiness. I further establish that the positive impact of fertility on subjective well-being can be explained by related increases in mothers’ satisfaction with family life, friendship, and treatment by others.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Jan Priebe"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00769-3","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-efb8b8cde418df0a","title":"Unemployment, drugs and attitudes among European youth","abstract":"This paper studies changes in the patterns of drug consumption and attitudes towards drugs in relation to sky-high (youth) unemployment rates brought about by the Great Recession. Our analysis is based on data for 28 European countries that refer to young people. We find that the consumption of cannabis and 'new substances' is positively related to increasing unemployment rates. An increase of 1% in the regional unemployment rate is associated with an increase of 0.7 percentage points in the ratio of young people who state that they have consumed cannabis at some point in time. Our findings also indicate that higher unemployment may be associated with more young people perceiving that access to drugs has become more difficult, particularly access to ecstasy, cocaine and heroin. According to young Europeans, when the economy worsens, anti-drug policies should focus on the reduction of poverty and unemployment, and not on implementing tougher measures against users.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Sara Ayllón","Natalia Nunes Ferreira‐Batista"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.08.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-efc5bf5a82dd043c","title":"The Size Distribution of Firms and Industrial Water Pollution: A Quantitative Analysis of China","abstract":"We argue that misallocation across firms amplifies industrial water pollution by distorting the firm size distribution in China. Firm-level data indicate that larger firms are more likely to use clean technology but face higher distortions. In a heterogeneous firms model with an endogenous choice of pollution treatment technologies, we show that distortions that increase with firm-level TFP lower the adoption of clean technology, amplify aggregate pollution intensity, and lower aggregate output. Quantitatively, eliminating these correlated distortions would increase output by 30 percent and decrease pollution by 20 percent. Meanwhile, environmental regulations have sizable impact on pollution but limited effects on aggregate output.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Ji Qi","Xin Tang","Xican Xi"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180227","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-efc6c3e972b1bd0a","title":"To invest or not to invest in sanitation: The role of intra-household gender differences in perceptions and bargaining power","abstract":"We exploit novel data collected within a randomized controlled trial of a sanitation microcredit intervention to study how intra-household gender differences in perceptions of costs and benefits of sanitation impact investment decisions. We show that – as long as the wife is involved in household decision-making – the intra-household differences in perceptions we document influence borrowing and investments: uptake of the sanitation loan is higher among households where the wife has higher benefit perception, whereas successful conversion to a toilet depends on differences in monetary cost perceptions. The estimated effects are consistent with the predictions of a model of intra-household decision-making.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Britta Augsburg","Bansi Malde","Harriet Olorenshaw","Zaki Wahhaj"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103074","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-efc73d30d19594ed","title":"Does Money Matter in the Long Run? Effects of School Spending on Educational Attainment","abstract":"This paper measures the effect of increased primary school spending on students' college enrollment and completion. Using student-level panel administrative data, I exploit variation in the school funding formula imposed by Michigan's 1994 school finance reform, Proposal A. Students exposed to $1,000 (10 percent) more spending were 3 percentage points (7 percent) more likely to enroll in college and 2.3 percentage points (11 percent) more likely to earn a postsecondary degree. The effects were concentrated among districts that were urban and suburban, lower poverty, and higher achieving at baseline. Districts targeted the marginal dollar toward schools serving less-poor populations within the district.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Joshua Hyman"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150249","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-efc766087cab29e1","title":"Salience and Timely Compliance: Evidence from Speeding Tickets","abstract":"This paper studies the enforcement of fines, and, in particular, the effects of simplification and salience nudges on timely payments. In a randomized controlled trial, we add cover letters to 80,000 payment notifications for speeding. The letters increase the salience of the payment deadline, the late penalty, or both. Emphasizing only the deadline is not effective. Stressing the late penalty significantly and persistently increases payment rates. The effect is largest if both parameters are made salient. The most effective treatment yields a net revenue gain that covers approximately 25 percent of the labor costs of the ticket administration personnel. A survey experiment documents how the salience nudges alter prior (mis)perceptions about the communicated parameters. The survey results rationalize the differential effects of the treatments and, together with the evidence from the RCT, offer a broader framework for explaining why certain nudges are effective in some contexts but fail in others.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Libor Dušek","Nicolas Pardo","Christian Traxler"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22387","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-efc8d63e433201bb","title":"The determinants of output losses during the Covid-19 pandemic","abstract":"The global recession in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic was accompanied by a significant degree of heterogeneity in the economic contraction across countries. We use a rich data set and Bayesian model averaging techniques to identify the factors shaping the extent of heterogeneity. The results highlight the importance of adverse initial conditions (large contact-intensive service sector) and behavioural changes (increased voluntary spatial distancing) relative to the extent of public containment measures.","wordCount":72,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Christian Glocker","Philipp Piribauer"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109923","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-efcbc479b8808ec4","title":"Varieties of risk preference elicitation","abstract":"We explore risk preference elicitation when subjects choose directly from an exogenously specified set of lotteries. Our choice tasks differ incrementally, e.g., from choosing between two lotteries to selecting a portfolio from a continuous set of bundled Arrow securities, and from text to spatial presentation. Each subject completes multiple instances of five different tasks, and responses for each task are summarized in parametric (CRRA) and non-parametric (normalized risk premium) measures of risk preference. Variation in task attributes explains much of the observed wide variation in elicited preferences and in correlations across task pairs.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Daniel Friedman","Sameh Habib","Duncan James","Brett Williams"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.02.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-efd32ee69071ec59","title":"Housing over time and over the life cycle: A structural estimation","abstract":"We construct a model of optimal life‐cycle housing and nonhousing consumption and estimate the elasticity between the two goods to be 0.487. The estimate is robust to different assumptions of housing adjustment cost, but sensitive to the choice of sample period and the degree of aggregation of data moments. We then conduct experiments in which house prices and household income fluctuate. Compared with the benchmark, the impact of the shocks on homeownership rates is reduced, but the impact on nonhousing consumption is magnified when housing service and nonhousing consumption are highly substitutable or when the house selling cost is sizable.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Wenli Li","Haiyong Liu","Fang Yang","Rui Yao"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12196","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-efec936368111226","title":"Energy Governance, Transnational Rules, and the Resource Curse: Exploring the Effectiveness of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)","abstract":"Transnational standards for disclosure have become a defining feature of global governance and sound economic development, yet little is known about their effectiveness. This study statistically explores the efficacy of such standards for the important case of the \\nExtractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), an international non-governmental organization which maintains a voluntary standard for revenue transparency in the extractive industries. As of November 2015, 31 countries were ‘‘EITI Compliant” and another 49 were \\n‘‘EITI Candidates.” In total, 49 countries had disclosed payments and revenues worth some $1.67 trillion in more than 200 ‘‘EITI Reports”, and over 90 major companies involved in oil, gas, and mining are committed to supporting the EITI. The EITI has also received support \\nfrom 84 global investment institutions that collectively manage about $16 trillion in energy infrastructural assets. Moreover, the European Union, African Union, G8 and G20, and the United Nations have all endorsed the EITI. This article provides the first broad empirical \\nexamination of the EITI’s effectiveness in improving governance and economic development outcomes in its member countries using non-parametric tests, regression analysis, and data from the World Bank. We analyze the performance of the first 16 countries to attain \\nEITI Compliance Status over the period of 1996–2014. We find, interestingly, that in most metrics EITI countries do not perform better during EITI compliance than before it, and that they do not outperform other countries. We postulate four possible explanations behind the relative weakness of the EITI: a limited mandate, its voluntary nature, stakeholder resistance, and dependence on strong civil society.","wordCount":255,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Benjamin K. Sovacool","Götz Walter","Thijs Van de Graaf","Nathan Andrews"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.01.021","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-efee6911821971a4","title":"General theory of equilibrium in models with complementarities","abstract":"We provide a new and general theory of order nearest comparative statics for subsets of equilibria in models with complementarities used widely in economics and other disciplines. Order nearest equilibria are motivated naturally in the theory of monotone comparative statics of equilibrium, but their existence does not follow from results based on weak set order or strong set order, in general. We provide such results and develop the general theory using weak monotonicity of selections from best response correspondences and two new set comparison relations: Star complete relation and star lattice relation. We do not require any continuity properties. Our results hold for standard models with complementarities prevalent in the literature and allow for new cases.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Tarun Sabarwal"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2025.105975","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f00d61e8ad5de136","title":"A Brief History of General‐to‐specific Modelling","abstract":"We review key stages in the development of general‐to‐specific modelling ( Gets ). Selecting a simplified model from a more general specification was initially implemented manually, then through computer programs to its present automated machine learning role to discover a viable empirical model. Throughout, Gets applications faced many criticisms, especially from accusations of ‘data mining’—no longer pejorative—with other criticisms based on misunderstandings of the methodology, all now rebutted. A prior theoretical formulation can be retained unaltered while searching over more variables than the available sample size from non‐stationary data to select congruent, encompassing relations with invariant parameters on valid conditioning variables.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["David F. Hendry"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12578","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f02c35a9e6529b4a","title":"The political economy of assisted immigration: Australia 1860–1913","abstract":"From 1860 to 1913 the six colonies that became states of Australia strove to attract migrants from the UK with a variety of assisted passages. The colonies/states shared a common culture and sought migrants from a common source, the UK, but set policy independently of each other. This experience provides a unique opportunity to examine the formation of assisted immigration policies. Using a panel of colonies/states over the years 1862 to 1913 I investigate the association between measures of policy activism and a range of economic and political variables. Assisted migration policies were positively linked with government budget surpluses and local economic prosperity. They were also associated with political participation including the widening of the franchise and remuneration of members of parliament. While the reduction in travel time to Australia reduced the need for assisted migration, slumps in the UK increased the take-up of assisted passages.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Timothy J. Hatton"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101565","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f02f3749875595cd","title":"Measuring long‐run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand","abstract":"I develop a structural model of urban travel to estimate long‐run gasoline price elasticities. I model the demand for transportation services using a dynamic discrete‐choice model with switching costs and estimate it using a panel dataset with public market‐level data on automobile and public transit use in Chicago. Long‐run own‐ (automobile) and cross‐ (transit) price elasticities are substantially more elastic than short‐run elasticities. Elasticity estimates from static and myopic models are downward biased. I use the estimated model to evaluate the response to several counterfactual policies. A gasoline tax is less regressive after accounting for the long‐run substitution behavior.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Javier D. Donna"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12397","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f0494ab8035c32ec","title":"Do the Retired Elderly in Europe Decumulate Their Wealth? The Importance of Bequest Motives, Precautionary Saving, Public Pensions, and Homeownership","abstract":"We use microdata on a large number of European countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to examine the wealth accumulation (saving) behavior of the retired elderly in Europe. We find that less than half of the retired elderly in Europe are decumulating their wealth and that the average wealth accumulation rate of the retired elderly in Europe is positive though relatively moderate (6.6 percent over a 3‐year period). These findings suggest that the Wealth Decumulation Puzzle (the tendency of the retired elderly to not decumulate their wealth or to decumulate their wealth more slowly than expected) applies in the case of Europe. Moreover, our regression results suggest that bequest motives, generous public pension systems, and the reluctance of retired elderly homeowners to sell or borrow against their owner‐occupied housing are the primary explanations for the existence of the Wealth Decumulation Puzzle in Europe.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Charles Yuji Horioka","Luigi Ventura"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12632","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f04cf7091a47f8f5","title":"Asset Pricing with Omitted Factors","abstract":"Standard estimators of risk premia in linear asset pricing models are biased if some priced factors are omitted. We propose a three-pass method to estimate the risk premium of an observable factor, which is valid even when not all factors in the model are specified or observed. The risk premium of the observable factor can be identified regardless of the rotation of the other control factors if together they span the true factor space. Our approach uses principal components of test asset returns to recover the factor space and additional regressions to obtain the risk premium of the observed factor.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Stefano Giglio","Dacheng Xiu"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/714090","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f054969c899182ad","title":"Choose to reuse! The effect of action-close reminders on pro-environmental behavior","abstract":"In this study, we examine whether reminders are able to overcome limited attention and effectively promote pro-environmental behavior. We conducted a natural field experiment with customers of a Swiss agricultural association that delivers weekly food boxes with vegetables in plastic bags. Treated customers received weekly reminders highlighting the option to return the plastic bags for reuse. Reminders were provided either as a flyer added to the food box or as a sticker directly attached to one of the plastic bags. We find that the flyer and sticker reminders are similarly effective in reducing plastic waste during the intervention period. Importantly, customers are most likely to return those plastic bags marked with an action-close sticker reminder that raises attention at the time of the desired behavioral change. This study provides insights into the attentional mechanisms underlying reminder effects and highlights action-closeness as an opportunity to effectively implement reminders in practice.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Andrea Essl","Angela Steffen","Martin Staehle"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102539","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f07215a69ed03fa8","title":"A user’s guide to economic utility functions","abstract":"Economic modeling of behavior under uncertainty has almost exclusively used one of two approaches. First comes the mean–variance tradeoff, central to the financial economics literature. The alternative approach uses a specific function to assess expected utility. In this approach, almost all of the economics literature has used either the exponential utility (EU) function, with constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) or the power utility (PU) function with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). Using a Taylor Series expansion, I show that higher-order terms (skewness and kurtosis) can significantly affect estimates of expected utility. I provide specific formulaic guidance allowing economists to assess when these terms become important. This guidance uses readily observable parameters such as mean, median and variance in a wide array of non-Gaussian statistical distributions. I next review two generalizations, one for CRRA utility, hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA), and one for CARA utility, exponential power (EP). I then introduce the possibility of risk-seeking behavior, both in standard economic theory and in the “value” portion of prospect theory (PT), and provide a new Generalized Logistic Utility (GLU) that automatically incorporates such behavior in its functional form. Next, I introduce issues involved in modeling utility that includes a non-marketable component such as health, the environment, or altruism, and discuss how the choice of utility function alters these models. I then assess the choice between exact utility functions and Taylor Series approximations. I conclude by discussing methods to estimate utility function parameters and methods to choose among alternative estimates.","wordCount":247,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Charles E. Phelps"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09443-5","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f0779ddcb4b55333","title":"When can the market identify old news?","abstract":"What drives the puzzle of market reactions to old news? Motivated by theories of correlation neglect, we conduct an experiment on finance professionals and show that even sophisticated investors have difficulty identifying old information that recombines content from multiple sources. We evaluate the market implications of this mechanism using a unique dataset of 17 million news articles from the Bloomberg terminal. Recombination of old information prompts larger price moves and subsequent reversals than direct reprints. This effect persists across news sentiment, ambiguity, and investor attention. Furthermore, while overall reactions to old information decline over time, differential reactions to recombinations increase.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Anastassia Fedyk","James Hodson"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f07fde9f7fb705e2","title":"Agricultural factor markets in Sub-Saharan Africa: An updated view with formal tests for market failure","abstract":"This paper uses the recently collected Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Initiative data sets from five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to provide a comprehensive overview of factor market participation by agrarian households and to formally test for failures in rural markets. Under complete and competitive markets, households can solve their consumption and production problems separately, so that household factor endowments do not predict input demand. This paper implements a simple, theoretically grounded test of this separation hypothesis, which can be interpreted as a reduced form test of market failure. In all five study countries, the analysis finds strong evidence of factor market failure. Moreover, those failures appear general and structural, not specific to subpopulations defined by gender, geography, human capital, or land quality. However, we show that rural markets are not generally missing in an absolute sense, suggesting that market existence is less of a problem than market function.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Brian Dillon","Christopher B. Barrett"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f08575befab0625d","title":"Why Is Math Cheaper than English? Understanding Cost Differences in Higher Education","abstract":"This paper establishes five new facts about instructional costs in higher education using department-level data from a broad range of institutions. Costs vary widely across fields, ranging from electrical engineering (90% higher than English) to math (25% lower). This pattern is largely explained by differences in class size and faculty pay. Some STEM fields experienced steep declines in expenditures over the past 17 years, while others saw increases. Changes in class size and teaching loads alongside a shift toward contingent faculty explain these trends. Finally, the association between online instruction and instructional costs is statistically indistinguishable from zero.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Steven W. Hemelt","Kevin Stange","Fernando Furquim","Andrew Simon","John E. Sawyer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/709535","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f0a641918411c620","title":"Extensions to IVX methods of inference for return predictability","abstract":"The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we demonstrate that, provided either a suitable bootstrap implementation is employed or heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors are used, the IVX-based predictability tests of Kostakis et al. (2015) retain asymptotically valid inference under the null hypothesis under considerably weaker assumptions on the innovations than are required by Kostakis et al. (2015). Second, under the same assumptions, we develop asymptotically valid bootstrap implementations of the IVX tests. Monte Carlo simulations show that the bootstrap tests deliver considerably more accurate finite sample inference than the asymptotic implementations of the tests under certain problematic parameter constellations, most notably for one-sided testing, and where multiple predictors are included. Third, we show how sub-sample implementations of the IVX approach can be used to develop asymptotically valid one-sided and two-sided tests for the presence of temporary windows of predictability.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Matei Demetrescu","Iliyan Georgiev","Paulo M.M. Rodrigues","A.M. Robert Taylor"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.02.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f0bf75fc756aba53","title":"The 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines After 10 Years","abstract":"This paper introduces the Special Issue of the Review of Industrial Organization that studies the impact of the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines after 10 years On August 19, 2010, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued newly updated Horizontal Merger Guidelines (2010 Guidelines) [See https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/merger-review/100819hmg.pdf .]. The 2010 Guidelines begin by stating: “These Guidelines outline the principal analytical techniques, practices, and the enforcement policy of the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission (the “Agencies”) with respect to mergers and acquisitions involving actual or potential competitors (“horizontal mergers”) under the federal antitrust laws.” Since the first Merger Guidelines were issued by the DOJ 1968, the merger guidelines have been an important channel by which economic research and learning affects antitrust enforcement. Each iteration of the merger guidelines has reflected the economic thinking of the day. Each iteration also has made a substantial impact on merger enforcement and the development of antitrust law. This special issue examines the impact of the 2010 Merger Guidelines after 10 years.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Joseph Farrell","Carl Shapiro"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09807-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f0c963520e554fbd","title":"Demand or productivity: what determines firm growth?","abstract":"We disentangle the contribution of unobserved heterogeneity in demand and productivity to firm growth using Italian data containing unique information on firm‐level prices. Demand and total factor productivity (TFP) shocks are equally important in shaping firm growth. However, the pass‐through of shocks to growth is highly incomplete, more so for productivity shocks. We argue that incompleteness and asymmetry of the pass‐through can be explained by frictions that, unlike those studied by the literature on factor misallocation, have differential effects according to the nature of the shock. We propose hurdles to firms' ability to reorganize as an example of these types of frictions.","wordCount":102,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Andrea Pozzi","Fabiano Schivardi"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12142","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f0ca83a7982cb33a","title":"Realized drift","abstract":"Drift and volatility are two mainsprings of asset price dynamics. While volatilities have been studied extensively in the literature, drifts are commonly believed to be impossible to estimate and largely ignored in the literature. This paper shows how to detect drift using realized autocovariance implemented on high-frequency data. We use a theoretical treatment in which the classical model for the efficient price, an Itō semimartingale possibly contaminated by microstructure noise, is enriched with drift and volatility explosions. Our theory advocates a novel decomposition for realized variance into a drift and a volatility component, which leads to significant improvements in volatility forecasting.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Sébastien Laurent","Roberto Renò","Shuping Shi"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105813","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f0d283b7cc0a3996","title":"Divergent Paths: A New Perspective on Earnings Differences Between Black and White Men Since 1940","abstract":"We present new evidence on the evolution of black–white earnings differences among all men, including both workers and nonworkers. We study two measures: (i) the level earnings gap—the racial earnings difference at a given quantile; and (ii) the earnings rank gap—the difference between a black man's percentile in the black earnings distribution and the position he would hold in the white earnings distribution. After narrowing from 1940 to the mid-1970s, the median black–white level earnings gap has since grown as large as it was in 1950. At the same time, the median black man's relative position in the earnings distribution has remained essentially constant since 1940, so that the improvement then worsening of median relative earnings have come mainly from the stretching and narrowing of the overall earnings distribution. Black men at higher percentiles have experienced significant advances in relative earnings since 1940, due mainly to strong positional gains among those with college educations. Large relative schooling gains by blacks at the median and below have been more than counteracted by rising return to skill in the labor market, which has increasingly penalized remaining racial differences in schooling at the bottom of the distribution.","wordCount":194,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Patrick Bayer","Kerwin Kofi Charles"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy003","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f0d55a16739deefa","title":"Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates","abstract":"The unique regulation of U.S. public pension funds links their liability discount rate to the expected return on assets, which gives them incentives to invest more in risky assets in order to report a better funding status. Comparing public and private pension funds in the United States, Canada, and Europe, we find that U.S. public pension funds act on their regulatory incentives. U.S. public pension funds with a higher level of underfunding per participant, as well as","wordCount":77,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Aleksandar Andonov","Rob Bauer","Martijn Cremers"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx020","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f0f5343bc8d81f94","title":"Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation","abstract":"Firmly anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in monthly data on realized inflation, survey expectations, and the term structure of interest rates. In order to assess whether inflation expectations are anchored, a timevarying volatility of trend shocks is estimated as well. While there is some commonality in inflation- and survey-based estimates of trend inflation, yield-based trend estimates embed a highly persistent component orthogonal to trend inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation rates and survey forecasts are most indicative of trend inflation.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Elmar Mertens"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00549","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f0fb89d76f88f07a","title":"Selling strategic information in digital competitive markets","abstract":"This article investigates the strategies of a data broker selling information to one or to two competing firms. The data broker combines segments of the consumer demand that allow firms to third‐degree price discriminate consumers. We show that the data broker (1) sells information on consumers with the highest willingness to pay; (2) keeps consumers with low willingness to pay unidentified. The data broker strategically chooses to withhold information on consumer demand to soften competition between firms. These results hold under first‐degree price discrimination, which is a limit case when information is perfect.","wordCount":93,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["David Bounie","Antoine Dubus","Patrick Waelbroeck"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12369","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f106c2d943654eff","title":"A GMM approach to estimate the roughness of stochastic volatility","abstract":"We develop a GMM approach for estimation of log-normal stochastic volatility models driven by a fractional Brownian motion with unrestricted Hurst exponent. We show that a parameter estimator based on the integrated variance is consistent and, under stronger conditions, asymptotically normally distributed. We inspect the behavior of our procedure when integrated variance is replaced with a noisy measure of volatility calculated from discrete high-frequency data. The realized estimator contains sampling error, which skews the fractal coefficient toward “illusive roughness.” We construct an analytical approach to control the impact of measurement error without introducing nuisance parameters. In a simulation study, we demonstrate convincing small sample properties of our approach based both on integrated and realized variance over the entire memory spectrum. We show the bias correction attenuates any systematic deviance in the parameter estimates. Our procedure is applied to empirical high-frequency data from numerous leading equity indexes. With our robust approach the Hurst index is estimated around 0.05, confirming roughness in stochastic volatility.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Anine E. Bolko","Kim Christensen","Mikko S. Pakkanen","Bezirgen Veliyev"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.06.009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f107f58ec39def0c","title":"What explains the missing girls in nineteenth‐century Spain?","abstract":"Infant and childhood sex ratios in nineteenth‐century Spain were abnormally high, thus pointing to some sort of unexplained excess female mortality. This article analyses internal regional variation and shows that certain economic and social factors mitigated gender discrimination against newborn and/or young girls. In particular, the presence of wage labour opportunities for women and the prevalence of extended families in which different generations of women cohabited had beneficial effects on girls’ survival. Likewise, infant and child sex ratios were lower in dense, more urbanized areas.","wordCount":85,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia","Domingo Gallego Martínez"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12772","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f10b5d482698a00f","title":"The real effects of monetary shocks: Evidence from micro pricing moments","abstract":"Multi-sector model with different pricing adjustment technologies rationalizes main findings. Empirically, what pricing moments are informative about monetary non-neutrality? The frequency of price changes is robustly informative among a set of pricing moments and across specifications: A lower frequency is statistically significantly associated with higher monetary non-neutrality, in line with models of price rigidities. Other moments that describe the price change distribution are not consistently or significantly related to monetary non-neutrality. While the frequency explains the largest share of variation in non-neutrality, no pricing moments individually or jointly explain a majority of the variation in a linear empirical setting. Non-pricing moments explain additional variation, however are not consistently associated with monetary non-neutrality. A multi-sector menu cost model featuring different price adjustment technologies across sectors can rationalize our main findings.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Gee Hee Hong","Matthew Klepacz","Ernesto Pastén","Raphael Schoenle"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.06.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f114a483077ba390","title":"Crowded out: Heterogeneity in risk attitudes among poor households in the US","abstract":"Not much is known about the heterogeneity of risk attitudes among poor households in rich countries. This paper provides estimates from a unique data set collected among the urban poor in Atlanta, Georgia. The data set includes lab-in-the-field experiments on the relationship between risk attitudes and several household characteristics. Apart from looking at income, wealth, and education, we are particularly interested in household composition as it captures the number and kind of people who are dependant on the income of the household head. Heads of households who are less risk averse may be willing to take on the extra risk from smaller resource margins resulting from additional dependants, implying a negative relationship between household size and risk aversion. However, if the size of the household is a result of exogenous forces some heads of households may become more risk averse with more dependants. Household size can also reflect a risk management choice that involves adding non-dependant members who can provide resources and risk sharing. However, this possibility is limited to homes that are not already too crowded. We find that household size correlates positively with the risk aversion of the head, but with a large proportion of children the correlation is strongly dampened. However, this negative effect of children is conditional on the home not already being crowded. These heterogeneous findings have implications for the design of new insurance, savings, and credit programs where risk attitudes are important to the decisions to adopt.","wordCount":243,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Arianna Galliera","E. Elisabet Rutström"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09363-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f11d7187433c77a1","title":"Collaboration and connectivity: Historical evidence from patent records","abstract":"Why has collaboration become increasingly central to technological progress? We document the role of lowered travel costs by combining patent data with the rollout of the Swedish railroad network in the 19th and early-20th century. Inventors that gain access to the network are more likely to produce collaborative patents, which is partly driven by long-distance collaborations with other inventors residing along the emerging railroad network. These results suggest that the declining costs of interacting with others is fundamental to account for the long-term increase in inventive collaboration.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Thor Berger","Erik Prawitz"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"A","allJels":["A","O"],"subfieldLabel":"General Economics / A","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103629","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f12dca51809a4ede","title":"Size matters, if you control your junk","abstract":"The size premium has been accused of having a weak historical record, being meager relative to other factors, varying significantly over time, weakening after its discovery, being concentrated among microcap stocks, residing predominantly in January, relying on price-based measures, and being weak internationally. We find, however, that these challenges disappear when controlling for the quality, or its inverse, junk, of a firm. A significant size premium emerges, which is stable through time, robust to specification, not concentrated in microcaps, more consistent across seasons, and evident for non-price-based measures of size, and these results hold in 30 different industries and 24 international equity markets. The resurrected size effect is on par with anomalies such as value and momentum in terms of economic significance and gives rise to new tests of, and challenges for, existing asset pricing theories.","wordCount":136,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Clifford S. Asness","Andrea Frazzini","Ronen Israel","Tobias J. Moskowitz","Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.05.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f137677cfb2e6ed7","title":"Conservative Talk Radio and political persuasion in the US,1950–1970","abstract":"Conservative Talk Radio continues to shape US politics in the 21st century, but it has a deeper history. Using newly digitized archival records, we provide new evidence on the electoral effects of Conservative Talk Radio in the historically consequential period from 1950 to 1970. Conservative radio hosts like Clarence Manion, Billy James Hargis, and Carl McIntire rapidly expanded their network during the early 1960s before the Kennedy administration took regulatory steps to dismantle their business model. We find that in counties where these shows aired on local stations, the Republican vote share increased following their introduction. Anticipatory effects are small and insignificant, which supports a causal interpretation of this effect.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Oliver Engist","Paul Matzko","Erik Merkus"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.12.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f15015999af920bf","title":"Pass-Through as a Test for Market Power: An Application to Solar Subsidies","abstract":"We formalize pass-through over-shifting as a simple yet underutilized test for market power. We apply this test in the market for solar energy. Specifically, we estimate the pass-through of solar subsidies to solar system prices using rich micro-level transaction and subsidy data from California. Buyers of solar systems capture nearly the full subsidy, while there is more-than-complete pass-through to lessees. We conclude that solar markets are imperfectly competitive by ruling out alternative explanations for over-shifting and reinforce this conclusion with a test of solar demand curvature. This procedure can serve to detect market power beyond the solar market.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Jacquelyn Pless","Arthur van Benthem"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170611","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f1538bdbb583473f","title":"Why Don't Remittances Appear to Affect Growth?","abstract":"While measured remittances by migrant workers have recently soared, macroeconomic studies have difficulty detecting their effect on economic growth. We propose three new explanations for this puzzle. First, a large majority of the recent rise in measured remittances may be illusory – arising from changes in measurement. Second, cross‐country regressions may lack power to detect such growth effects. Third, remittances rise primarily with rising emigration, whose opportunity cost to GDP creates endogeneity bias. Migration and remittances clearly have first‐order effects on poverty, migrant households' welfare and global GDP but detecting the effect of remittances on economic growth faces important challenges.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Michael A. Clemens","David McKenzie"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12463","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f15eec9f482c653f","title":"Does Mobility across Universities Raise Scientific Productivity?","abstract":"Using a highly comprehensive new data set on Swedish researchers, we investigate the effects of inter‐university mobility on researcher productivity. Our study suggests substantial gains from mobility on scientific output. The empirical analysis addresses selection using inverse probability treatment censoring weights. We find that mobility induces a long‐lasting increase in a researcher's publications by 32% and citations by 63%. Such mobility effects are not explained by promotions taking place jointly with a move. Positive effects are found among individuals who move between universities and not for those who move to or from university colleges. Moreover, we find that the positive effect of moving only applies to researchers in medicine, natural sciences and engineering and technology, with no effect of mobility found in the social sciences and in the humanities.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Olof Ejermo","Claudio Fassio","John Källström"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12346","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f16ba47a42ee76db","title":"Trading and Information Diffusion in Over-the-Counter Markets","abstract":"We model trading and information diffusion in OTC markets, when dealers can engage in many bilateral transactions at the same time. We show that information diffusion is effective, but not efficient. While each bilateral price partially reveals all dealers' private information after a single round of trading, dealers could learn more even within the constraints imposed by our environment. This is not a result of dealers' market power, but arises from the interaction between decentralization and differences in dealers' valuation of the asset. We apply our framework to confront several explanations for the disruption of OTC markets with stylized facts from the empirical literature. We find more support for narratives emphasizing increased counterparty risk as opposed to increased informational frictions.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Ana Babus","Péter Kondor"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12043","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f177d1a9838fb8d1","title":"Sustaining Honesty in Public Service: The Role of Selection","abstract":"We study the role of self-selection into public service in sustaining honesty in the public sector. Focusing on the world’s least corrupt country, Denmark, we use a survey experiment to document strong self-selection of more honest individuals into public service. This result differs sharply from existing findings from more corrupt settings. Differences in pro-social versus pecuniary motivation appear central to the observed selection pattern. Dishonest individuals are more pecuniarily motivated and self-select out of public service into higher-paying private sector jobs. Accordingly, we find that increasing public sector wages would attract more dishonest candidates to public service in Denmark.","wordCount":99,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Sebastian Barfort","Nikolaj Harmon","Frederik Hjorth","Asmus Leth Olsen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170688","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f17928baff595139","title":"Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity: A welfare-theoretic approach with application to German household data","abstract":"We develop a model of optimal taxation and redistribution under an ambitious climate target. We take into account vertical income differences, but also explicitly capture horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon and labor taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we investigate analytically how vertical and horizontal inequality is considered in the welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal and show that redistribution of carbon tax revenues via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Under plausible assumptions on inequality aversion, transfers to energy-intensive households should be about five times higher than transfers to energy-efficient households. Equal per-capita transfers do not require to observe households’ efficiency type, but increase equity-weighted mitigation costs by around 5 percent compared to the first-best. Mitigation costs increase by less, if the government can implement a uniform clean energy subsidy or household-specific tax-subsidy schemes on energy consumption and labor income that target heterogeneous energy efficiencies. Horizontal equity concerns may therefore constitute a new second-best rationale for clean energy policies or differentiated energy taxes.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Martin Hänsel","Max Franks","Matthias Kalkuhl","Ottmar Edenhofer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102730","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f17c9ad4cbfd8d4e","title":"A Simple Estimation of Bid-Ask Spreads from Daily Close, High, and Low Prices","abstract":"We propose a new method to estimate the bid-ask spread when quote data are not available. Compared to other low-frequency estimates, this method utilizes a wider information set, namely, readily available close, high, and low prices. In the absence of end-of-day quote data, this method generally provides the highest cross-sectional and average time-series correlations with the TAQ effective spread benchmark. Moreover, it delivers the most accurate estimates for less liquid stocks. Our estimator has many potential applications, including an accurate measurement of transaction cost, systematic liquidity risk, and commonality in liquidity for U.S. stocks dating back almost one century.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Farshid Abdi","Angelo Ranaldo"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx084","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f17ef11920e7fc64","title":"Do collective emotions drive bitcoin volatility? A triple regime-switching vector approach","abstract":"In this paper, we build an empirical specification that helps to explain bitcoin volatility and to characterize phases of the bitcoin bubble using information derived from investors’ emotions and sentiment that captures investment intentions and investors’ aversion to risk. To this end, we investigated the bilateral relations between bitcoin volatility and investor emotions between 2018 and 2021, a period characterized by significant changes in bitcoin prices as well as wide disparities in investor emotions, especially in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The study was based on a linear and nonlinear Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that we applied to data related to bitcoin prices and market sentiment as expressed by the Fear and Greed index. Overall, our results evince the key role played by collective emotions in the formation and collapse of the bitcoin bubble. Two findings in particular stand out. First, our model shows significant time-varying lead-lag effects between bitcoin volatility and investor sentiment that come into play bilaterally and help to characterize the dynamics of bitcoin volatility. Second, these interactions exhibit asymmetry and nonlinearity as the sign and size of collective emotions (resp. bitcoin volatility) vary with the regime and market state under consideration (calm state versus period of bubble formation, etc.). In other words, the power of sentiment has a time-varying effect on the market. Indeed, in the first regime (“calm state”), where bitcoin volatility is relatively low and the market shows evidence of stability, collective emotions have a negative impact on bitcoin volatility, prompting a stabilizing strength. However, in the second regime (“bubble formation”), the effect of emotions turns significantly positive as investors gradually become less fearful and more reassured, which can simultaneously increase volatility and destabilize the market. Finally, in the third regime (“bubble collapse”), when bitcoin reaches a high level of value and experiences impressive volatility excess , the effect of emotions again turns negative, resulting in further switching behavior that pushes investor action to provoke a bitcoin price correction, moving it toward a new state of stability. Our conclusion helps improve predictions of bitcoin price dynamics informed by the information provided by investor emotions.","wordCount":352,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["David Bourghelle","Fredj Jawadi","Philippe Rozin"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.026","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f184c90a50b71a49","title":"Is Education Always Reducing Fertility? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms","abstract":"We study the relationship between education and fertility, exploiting compulsory schooling reforms in England and Continental Europe, implemented between 1936 and 1975. We assess the causal effect of education on the number of biological children and the incidence of childlessness. While we find a negative relationship between education and fertility in England, this result cannot be confirmed for Continental Europe. The additional education generated by schooling expansions on the Continent did not lead to a decrease in the number of biological children nor to an increase in childlessness. These findings are robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks.","wordCount":100,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Margherita Fort","Nicole Schneeweis","Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12394","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f18c39048e10fe07","title":"Intensifying financial inclusion through the provision of financial literacy training: a gendered perspective","abstract":"This study examines the impact of financial literacy training on financial inclusion and its intensity using data collected from a randomised control trial. An additive index of financial inclusion is generated from four financial inclusion indicators. After testing for baseline balance and estimating impact, our findings show that beneficiaries of financial literacy training are about 7.2 percentage points more likely to own an account while they are 8.2 percentage points more likely to save. Overall, beneficiaries of financial literacy training had a 9.5 percentage points advantage in receiving financial assistance than their non-beneficiary counterparts. While financial literacy training only showed a significant impact on account ownership for female-beneficiary households, male-beneficiary households also only experienced an impact in their savings behaviour and receipt of financial assistance. Moreover, beneficiaries of financial literacy training are more likely to intensify their financial inclusion and the intensity of inclusion is higher for male and young beneficiary households. The results highlight the need to strengthen financial literacy training in order to close the gender financial inclusion gap.","wordCount":171,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Isaac Koomson","Renato Villano","David Hadley"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1645943","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f18d5aa1b9ca01cb","title":"The Costs of Agglomeration: House and Land Prices in French Cities","abstract":"We develop a new methodology to estimate the elasticity of urban costs with respect to city population using French house and land price data. After handling a number of estimation concerns, we find that the elasticity of urban costs increases with city population with an estimate of about 0.03 for an urban area with 100,000 inhabitants to 0.08 for an urban area of the size of Paris. Our approach also yields a number of intermediate outputs of independent interest such as the share of housing in expenditure, the elasticity of unit house and land prices with respect to city population, and within-city distance gradients for house and land prices.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Pierre‐Philippe Combes","Gilles Duranton","Laurent Gobillon"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy063","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f1919eba239a57b6","title":"Inclusive banking, financial regulation and bank performance: Cross-country evidence","abstract":"This paper investigates whether inclusive banking can boost bank-level performance, using an international sample of 1,740 banks over the period 2004-2015. We find that there is a significant positive association between financial inclusion and bank efficiency. Greater financial inclusion helps banks in reducing the volatility of their deposit-funding share as it provides more stable long-term funds for banks, while also mitigating the adverse effects of their return volatility. The association is stronger in countries with limited restrictions on banking activities or more capital regulation stringency as the deposit channel enables greater flow of low-cost funds for high-return investments. The results are robust to instrumental variable analysis, multiple dimensions of financial inclusion (supply, demand, and pro-access policy), and a difference-in-differences estimator that exploits cross-country and temporal variations in actively promoting an inclusive agenda, further confirming that inclusive financial development can be beneficial for banks.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["M. Mostak Ahamed","Shirley J. Ho","Sushanta Mallick","Roman Matoušek"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106055","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f1a71083f847e18f","title":"Access to Healthcare and Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions","abstract":"I investigate the causal relationship between access to healthcare and crime following state decisions to expand Medicaid coverage after the Affordable Care Act. I combine state‐level crime data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reports for the years 2009 through 2018 with variation in insurance eligibility generated by the Medicaid expansion. Using a difference‐in‐differences design, my findings indicate that states that expanded Medicaid have experienced a 5.3 percent reduction in annual reported violent crime rates relative to nonexpansion states. This effect is explained by decreases in aggravated assaults and corresponds to 17 fewer incidents per 100,000 people. The estimated decrease in reported crime amounts to an annual cost savings of approximately $4 billion.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Jacob Vogler"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22239","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f1b5a6c20bd75af2","title":"Wage gap and stock returns: Do investors dislike pay inequality?","abstract":"Recent research shows that a high wage-gap between managers and workers identifies better-performing firms, but the stock market does not seem to price this information. In this paper, we show that not all investors neglect pay inequality. Using a unique data set on German firms' employee compensation, we find that the mispricing of the wage gap is driven by limits to arbitrage. Specifically, some investors seem to bid up low-wage-gap stocks for non-monetary reasons, thus exhibiting a preference for low pay-inequality. The results suggest that firms with equitable pay schemes are rewarded with a lower cost of capital.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Ingolf Dittmann","Maurizio Montone","Yuhao Zhu"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102322","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f1b6fc987a780f51","title":"Impacts of state <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 reopening policy on human mobility and mixing behavior","abstract":"This study quantifies the effect of the 2020 state COVID economic activity reopening policies on daily mobility and mixing behavior, adding to the economic literature on individual responses to public health policy that addresses public contagion risks. We harness cellular device signal data and the timing of reopening plans to provide an assessment of the extent to which human mobility and physical proximity in the United States respond to the reversal of state closure policies. We observe substantial increases in mixing activities, 13.56% at 4 days and 48.65% at 4 weeks, following reopening events. Echoing a theme from the literature on the 2020 closures, mobility outside the home increased on average prior to these state actions. Furthermore, the largest increases in mobility occurred in states that were early adopters of closure measures and hard-hit by the pandemic, suggesting that psychological fatigue is an important barrier to implementation of closure policies extending for prolonged periods of time.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Thủy Nguyễn","Sumedha Gupta","Martin Andersen","Ana I. Bento","Kosali Simon","Coady Wing"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12538","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f1bfefc9a4b492a5","title":"A Comprehensive 2022 Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction","abstract":"Our paper reexamines whether 29 variables from 26 papers published after Goyal and Welch 2008, as well as the original 17 variables, were useful in predicting the equity premium in-sample and out-of-sample as of the end of 2021. Our samples include the original periods in which these variables were identified, but end later. More than one-third of these new variables no longer have empirical significance even in-sample. Of those that do, half have poor out-of-sample performance. A small number of variables still perform reasonably well both in-sample and out-of-sample.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Amit Goyal","Ivo Welch","Athanasse Zafirov"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhae044","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f1d9e5653b787609","title":"Geopolitical risk and M&A: The role of national governance institutions","abstract":"Examining nineteen emerging economies from 1990 to 2018, we identify a positive effect of geopolitical risk on mergers and acquisition (M&A) deal frequency, driven mainly by an increase in domestic M&A. However, we find a negative effect of geopolitical risk on the M&A deal size, highlighting the deadweight cost created by the geopolitical risk. The quality of national governance moderates the deterring effect of geopolitical risk.","wordCount":66,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Sandeep Rao","Santosh Koirala","Sulaiman Aldhawyan","Shaen Corbet"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","P","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111062","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f1eeb4eab52cacf6","title":"The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment","abstract":"Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.","wordCount":107,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Benjamin Born","Gernot J. Müller","Moritz Schularick","Petr Sedláček"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez020","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f1f4aad5c5dc0a6e","title":"Longitudinal determinants of end-of-life wealth inequality","abstract":"Inequality in wealth among elderly households, and in particular the prevalence of very low wealth holdings, can be an important consideration in the design of social insurance programs. This paper examines the incidence and determinants of low levels of financial and total wealth using repeated cross-sections of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and a small longitudinal sample of HRS respondents observed both at age 65 and shortly before death. Most of those who report very low wealth holdings at the end of their life had little wealth at the traditional retirement age of 65. There is strong persistence over time in reports of very low wealth, and more generally relatively little evidence that wealth is drawn down in the first 15 years of retirement. The age-specific probability of reporting low wealth increases slowly after age 65. Low lifetime earnings are strongly predictive of low wealth at retirement and at the end of life. The post-retirement onset of a major medical condition, and, for married women, the loss of their spouse, are both associated with small increases in the probability of reporting very low wealth, but they account for a small fraction of low-wealth outcomes. Low levels of wealth accumulation before age 65, rather than gaps in the safety net after 65 or rapid spend-down of accumulated assets, appear to be the primary determinant of low levels of wealth just before death.","wordCount":232,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["James M. Poterba","Steven F. Venti","David A. Wise"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.04.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f20a91b857932fd3","title":"Can unconditional cash transfers raise long-term living standards? Evidence from Zambia","abstract":"In Africa, state-sponsored cash transfer programs now reach nearly 50 million people. Do these programs raise long-term living standards? We examine this question using experimental data from two unconditional cash transfer programs implemented by the Zambian Government. We find far-reaching effects of the programs both on food security and consumption as well as on a range of productive outcomes. After three years, household spending is on average 67 percent larger than the value of the transfer received, implying a sizeable multiplier effect, which works through increased non-farm activity and agricultural production. Policy implication is that government sponsored unconditional cash transfers to the ultra-poor can lead to increases in long-term living standards and play an important part of an inclusive growth development strategy.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Sudhanshu Handa","Luisa Natali","David Seidenfeld","Gelson Tembo","Benjamin Davis"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.01.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f2116847bb0fa090","title":"National culture of secrecy and firms’ access to credit","abstract":"High secrecy cultures are characterized by a preference for confidentiality and non-disclosure of information. This study documents the impact of cultural differences in secrecy on firms’ access to credit. We use data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for a large sample of firms operating in 35 countries from 2010 to 2019. We show that firms operating in countries with higher levels of secrecy are less likely to apply for credit when they need it—they are more discouraged—and also less likely to receive credit when they do apply—they are more rationed. The underlying economic channels are greater opacity and corruption in cultures with high secrecy. The effect of cultural secrecy on credit discouragement and credit rationing is moderated by trust in banks, interpersonal trust, and firms’ financial dependence on external sources. We control for several potential alternative drivers and conduct several robustness tests. The results confirm that firms have better access to credit in cultures that promote transparency and information disclosure.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Jérémie Bertrand","Paul‐Olivier Klein","Fotios Pasiouras"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107277","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f2178881aea972d9","title":"Discounting future payments in stated preference choice experiments","abstract":"When costs are presented as a series of recurring payments in stated preference choice experiment (CE) questions, how respondents discount future payments is important in explaining choices and in the measurement of the present value of willingness to pay. In this paper, alternative discounting approaches are compared to examine their effect on measuring preferences and values using data from a survey examining public preferences for the protection of an endangered species. Exponential and hyperbolic discounting assumptions lead to very similar results in terms of both model fit and welfare. All estimated models suggest future payments are discounted at a very high rate. Several factors likely influencing the magnitude of these estimated discount rates are discussed, and then an argument is made for using payment vehicles in stated preference studies that employ a single lump sum payment rather than a series of future payments.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Daniel K. Lew"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.09.003","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-f2192d5c1d904927","title":"Household Finance after a Natural Disaster: The Case of Hurricane Katrina","abstract":"Little is known about how affected residents are able to cope with the financial shock of a natural disaster. This paper investigates the impact of flooding on household finance. Spikes in credit card borrowing and overall delinquency rates for the most flooded residents are modest in size and short-lived. Greater flooding results in larger reductions in total debt. Lower debt levels are driven by homeowners using flood insurance to repay their mortgages rather than to rebuild. Mortgage reductions are larger in areas where reconstruction costs exceeded pre-Katrina home values and where mortgages were likely to be originated by nonlocal lenders.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Justin Gallagher","Daniel Hartley"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140273","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f21e6d17746807d7","title":"Unintended Consequences of Sanctions for Human Rights: Conflict Minerals and Infant Mortality","abstract":"Are victims of human rights abuses better off with or without economic sanctions targeted at their perpetrators? We study this question in the context of a US human rights policy, the conflict-minerals section of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. By discouraging companies from sourcing tin, tungsten, and tantalum from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, the policy has acted as a de facto boycott on mineral purchases that may finance warlords and armed militias. We estimate the policy’s impact on the mortality of children born before 2013 and find that it increased the probability of infant deaths in villages near the policy-targeted mines by at least 143 percent. We find suggestive evidence that the legislation-induced boycott did so by reducing mothers’ consumption of infant health care goods and services.","wordCount":129,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Dominic P. Parker","Jeremy D. Foltz","David Elsea"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","F","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691793","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f21efd892cad015d","title":"Could the environment be a normal good for you and an inferior good for me? A theory of context-dependent substitutability and needs","abstract":"Theoretical models often assume the environment to be a normal good, irrespective of one’s income. However, a priori, nothing prohibits an environmental good from being normal for some individuals and inferior for others. We develop a conceptual framework in which private consumption and an environmental public good act as substitutes or complements for satisfying different needs. Subsequently, the environment can switch between normal and inferior depending on one’s income and environment and corresponding prevalent needs. If the environment is inferior for some range of income, then the willingness to pay for environmental preservation becomes non-monotonic with respect to income. We discuss the relevance of our framework in the context of (income-adjusted) unit benefit transfers, dual-rate discounting and the Environmental Kuznets curve.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Marion Dupoux","Vincent Martinet"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101316","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f225aeff23d8bb1a","title":"Socioeconomic inequality in access to timely and appropriate care in emergency departments","abstract":"In publicly-funded healthcare systems, waiting times for care should be based on need rather than ability to pay. Studies have shown that individuals with lower socioeconomic status face longer waits for planned inpatient care, but there is little evidence on inequalities in waiting times for emergency care. We study waiting times in emergency departments (EDs) following arrival by ambulance, where health consequences of extended waits may be severe. Using data from all major EDs in England during the 2016/17 financial year, we find patients from more deprived areas face longer waits during some parts of the ED care pathway. Inequalities in waits are small, but more deprived individuals also receive less complex ED care, are less likely to be admitted for inpatient care, and are more likely to re-attend ED or die shortly after attendance. Patient-physician interactions and unconscious bias towards more deprived patients may be important sources of inequalities.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Alex Turner","Igor Francetić","Ruth Watkinson","Stephanie Gillibrand","Matt Sutton"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102668","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f22a98de79ad5750","title":"Trade shocks and investment efficiency","abstract":"We investigate how international trade shocks affect corporate investment efficiency. Utilizing a novel pairwise firm-product level dataset in China, we find that the investment efficiency of target firms significantly improves following the implementation of trade defense instruments (TDIs), including antidumping, countervailing, and safeguard measures. The reduction in free cash flow and heightened competition triggered by TDIs discourage overinvestment, particularly in firms more prone to overinvestment and those operating in industries with lower ex-ante competition. Moreover, the efficiency-enhancing effect is more pronounced in firms subject to stricter penalties and higher-value targeted products. Taken together, these findings suggest that Chinese target firms respond to international trade shocks by altering their investment strategies and improving efficiency.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Wenjing Li","Yuanhuai Peng","Hanwen Sun","Youchao Tan"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102795","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f2391da9c914197a","title":"The impacts of health shocks on household labor supply and domestic production","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of severe health shocks on labor supply decisions and domestic production within German households. We draw from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), focusing on individuals aged 25 to 55 at the time of their first observed health shock. After the health shock, we find that affected individuals suffer a persistent loss in annual gross labor income of around 4,000 euros. This effect results mostly from adjustments at the extensive margin, with labor market participation declining by about 16%. We observe a reduction in full-time employment, but no significant effect on part-time employment. At the household level, a combination of public transfers and added worker effect effectively compensates for the income loss. Finally, individuals experiencing a health shock, particularly women, spend more time on domestic production.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Giovanni Di Meo","Onur Eryilmaz"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.102992","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f24ae107da8ca9c6","title":"Democratization, personal wealth of politicians and voting behavior","abstract":"Between about 1850 and 1920, Western Europe underwent a period of democratization and liberalization, resulting in the expansion of government and the establishment of universal suffrage. This paper examines the impact of politicians’ personal wealth on this process, with a focus on the case of The Netherlands, using data from newly-collected probate inventories as a measure of politicians’ wealth. The paper finds that the wealth of parliaments decreased significantly over time, and that richer politicians were more likely to vote against fiscal legislation, suggesting that personal wealth negatively influenced the probability of increasing taxes and played a role in determining government size. The analyses presented in the paper support a causal interpretation of these results. However, the study finds no significant relationship between politicians’ personal wealth and their voting behavior on suffrage extensions.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Bas Machielsen"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101733","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f24b51208b3bdfe1","title":"Increasing perseverance in math: Evidence from a field experiment in Norway","abstract":"Research by psychologists and economists demonstrates that many non-cognitive skillsare malleable in both children and adolescents, but we have limited knowledge on what schools can do to foster these skills. In a field experiment requiring real effort, we investigate how schools can increase students’ perseverance in math by shaping students’ beliefs intheir abilities to learn, a concept referred to by psychologists as “mindset.” Using protocols adapted from psychology, we experimentally manipulate students’ beliefs in their ability to learn. Three weeks after our treatment, we find persistent treatment effects on students’perseverance and academic performance in math. When investigating subsamples, we find that students, who prior to the experiment had less of a belief in their ability to learn, generate the treatment effect. The findings suggest that a low-cost intervention focused onstudents’ mindset can improve students’ engagement and performance.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Eric Bettinger","Sten Ludvigsen","Mari Rege","Ingeborg Foldøy Solli","David S. Yeager"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.11.032","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f253ff25e3758632","title":"Same Question But Different Answer: Experimental Evidence on Questionnaire Design's Impact on Poverty Measured by Proxies","abstract":"Based on a randomized survey experiment that was implemented in Malawi, the study finds that observationally‐equivalent, as well as same, households answer the same questions differently depending on whether they are interviewed with a short questionnaire or its longer counterpart. Statistically significant differences in reporting emerge across all topics and question types. In proxy‐based poverty measurement, these reporting differences lead to significantly different predicted poverty rates and Gini coefficients. The difference in poverty predictions ranges from 3 to 7 percentage points, depending on the model specification. A prediction model based only on the proxies that are elicited prior to the variation in questionnaire design yields identical poverty predictions irrespective of the short‐versus‐long questionnaire treatment. The results are relevant for estimating trends with questionnaires exhibiting inter‐temporal variation in design, impact evaluations administering questionnaires of different length and complexity to treatment and control samples, and development programs utilizing proxy‐means tests for targeting.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Talip Kilic","Thomas Pave Sohnesen"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12343","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f25c5d07e60823f3","title":"Privatization and productivity in China","abstract":"We study how ownership affects productivity in the context of China's privatization of state‐owned enterprises (SOEs). Its true impact remains unclear and controversial, partly because the government selectively privatized or liquidated nonperforming SOEs. To address this selection problem, we augment the Gandhi–Navarro–Rivers nonparametric production function to incorporate endogenous ownership changes. Results suggest private firms are 53% more productive than SOEs on average, but the benefits of privatization take several years to fully materialize. This productivity gap is smaller among larger firms and in economically more liberal times and places; it is larger in consumer‐facing and high‐tech industries.","wordCount":97,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Yuyu Chen","Mitsuru Igami","Masayuki Sawada","Mo Xiao"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12395","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-f26854265895e265","title":"Energy Cost Pass-Through in US Manufacturing: Estimates and Implications for Carbon Taxes","abstract":"We study how changes in energy input costs for US manufacturers affect the relative welfare of manufacturing producers and consumers (i.e., incidence). We also develop a methodology to estimate the incidence of input taxes that accounts for incomplete pass-through, imperfect competition, and substitution among inputs. For the several industries we study, 70 percent of energy price-driven changes in input costs get passed through to consumers in the short to medium run. The share of the welfare cost that consumers bear is 25–75 percent smaller (and the share producers bear is larger) than models featuring complete pass-through and perfect competition would suggest.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Sharat Ganapati","Joseph Shapiro","Reed Walker"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180474","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f268dae6d5467ebb","title":"Location-Price Equilibria when Traditional Retailers Compete Against an Online Retailer","abstract":"We consider a location-then-price game where two traditional retailers compete with a location-irrelevant online retailer. We characterize the existing equilibria, and we show that in any possible equilibrium there is direct competition between the traditional retailers. Furthermore, the traditional retailers locate at neither a maximal nor minimal distance. In equilibrium, the price of the online retailer might be higher or lower than the price of the traditional retailers, depending on the relative competitiveness of the online retailer and the traditional retailers.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Stefano Colombo","Zemin Hou"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09814-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f275618c7a1c8dcd","title":"Regional development and carbon emissions in China","abstract":"China announced at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015 that the country would reach peak carbon emissions around 2030. Since then, widespread attention has been devoted to determining when and how this goal will be achieved. This study aims to explore the role of China's changing regional development patterns in the achievement of this goal. This study uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to estimate seven socioeconomic drivers of the changes in CO2 emissions in China since 2000. The results show that China's carbon emissions have plateaued since 2012 mainly because of energy efficiency gains and structural upgrades (i.e., industrial structure, energy mix and regional structure). Regional structure, measured by provincial economic growth shares, has drastically reduced CO2 emissions since 2012. The effects of these drivers on emissions changes varied across regions due to their different regional development patterns. Industrial structure and energy mix resulted in emissions growth in some regions, but these two drivers led to emissions reduction at the national level. For example, industrial structure reduced China's CO2 emissions by 1.0% from 2013 to 2016; however, it increased CO2 emissions in the Northeast and Northwest regions by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Studying China's plateauing CO2 emissions in the new normal stage at the regional level yields a strong recommendation that China's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.","wordCount":221,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Jiali Zheng","Zhifu Mi","D’Maris Coffman","Stanimira Milcheva","Yuli Shan","Dabo Guan","Shouyang Wang"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.03.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f27ad8bb2f11b47b","title":"Power illusion in coalitional bargaining: An experimental analysis","abstract":"One feature of legislative bargaining in naturally occurring settings is that the distribution of seats or voting weights often does not accurately reflect bargaining power. Game-theoretic predictions about payoffs and coalition formation are insensitive to nominal differences in vote distributions and instead only depend on pivotality. We conduct an experimental test of the classical Baron-Ferejohn model with five-player groups. Holding real power constant, we compare treatments with differences in nominal power. We find that initial effects of nominal differences become small or disappear with experience. Our results also point to the complexity of the environment as having a negative impact on the speed at which this transition takes place. Finally, and of particular importance as a methodological observation, giving subjects a pause accelerates learning.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Nicola Maaser","Fabian Paetzel","Stefan Traub"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.07.010","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f284364fa9dc3c7a","title":"The intergenerational transmission of higher education: Evidence from the 1973 coup in Chile","abstract":"We estimate the transmission of higher education across generations using the arrival of the Pinochet dictatorship to Chile in 1973 as natural experiment. Pinochet promoted a large contraction in the number of seats available for new students across all universities. Using census data, we find that parents who reached college age shortly after 1973 experienced a sharp decline in college enrollment. Decades after democratization, we observe that their children are also less likely to enroll in higher education. The results imply large and persistent downstream effects of educational policies over more than half a century.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["María Angélica Bautista","Felipe González","Luis R. Martínez","Pablo Muñoz","Mounu Prem"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101540","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f28cd8a839bdb191","title":"On the role of monetary incentives in risk preference elicitation experiments","abstract":"Incentivized experiments in which individuals receive monetary rewards according to the outcomes of their decisions are regarded as the gold standard for preference elicitation in experimental economics. These task-related real payments are considered necessary to reveal subjects' \"true preferences.\" Using a systematic, large-sample approach with three subject pools of private investors, professional investors, and students, we test the effect of task-related monetary incentives on risk preferences in four standard experimental tasks. We find no significant differences in behavior between and within subjects in the incentivized and non-incentivized regimes. We discuss implications for academic research and forions in the field. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-022-09377-w.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Andreas Hackethal","Michael Kirchler","Christine Laudenbach","Michael Razen","Annika Weber"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09377-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f28f04f9e805cdec","title":"Road maintenance and local economic development: Evidence from Indonesia’s highways","abstract":"This paper estimates the local welfare impacts of highway maintenance investments. We instrument road quality exploiting Indonesia’s two-step budgeting process for allocating funding to local road authorities. Using comprehensive data on road quality from 1990–2007, we find evidence that better roads help manufacturers create new jobs, enabling worker transitions out of informal employment, and increasing labor income. Road quality also changes the cost of living, reducing perishable food prices but also raising housing prices. We estimate the elasticity of household welfare with respect to road quality to be 0.1 and the benefit/cost ratio for road maintenance investments to be 2.3.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Paul Gertler","Marco Gonzalez-Navarro","Tadeja Gračner","Alexander D. Rothenberg"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103687","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f2b6edd8bf5287c4","title":"Inequality in early life: Social class differences in childhood mortality in southern Sweden, 1815–1967","abstract":"This article analyses the long‐term development of social class differences in infant and child mortality in an area of southern Sweden, spanning from the early stages of the mortality transition at the beginning of the nineteenth century, to the late 1960s when both infant and child mortality had reached very low levels. Our findings show that infant and child mortality was fairly equal at the beginning of the study period. We find no clear pattern of class differentials in childhood mortality in the first half of the nineteenth century when both infant and child mortality declined. Later in the nineteenth century, class differences started to emerge. This is clear for both post‐neonatal mortality and child mortality, while we do not find any class differences in neonatal mortality. Over time, a more or less full gradient emerged for post‐neonatal mortality, and a weak gradient also emerged for child mortality. Strikingly, the disadvantaged position for unskilled and lower‐skilled workers remained throughout the 1960s, also at a time when mortality levels were very low, and living standards had increased dramatically for all classes in the population.","wordCount":183,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Martin Dribe","Omar Karlsson"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","N","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13089","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f2b8a539ba20d0fc","title":"Forecasting realized volatility with wavelet decomposition","abstract":"Forecasting Realized Volatility (RV) is of paramount importance for both academics and practitioners. During recent decades, academic literature has made substantial progress both in terms of methods and predictors under consideration albeit with scarce reference to technical indicators. This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting performance of technical indicators for S&P500 RV relative to macroeconomic predictors. Our main contribution is to demonstrate that these sets of predictors impact volatility at different frequencies and thus are complementary. Specifically, technical indicators perform especially strongly for forecasting the short frequency component which complements macroeconomic variables which perform strongly at longer frequencies. We demonstrate that amalgamation forecasts from these predictors that takes into account the frequency dimension leads to substantial improvements in forecast accuracy.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Ioannis Souropanis","Andrew Vivian"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101432","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f2b8fb85419b3bac","title":"Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan","abstract":"Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period, but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation increases more in the ZLB period than in the normal period.","wordCount":91,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Wataru Miyamoto","Thuy Lan Nguyen","Dmitriy Sergeyev"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170131","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f2bab1dd3f76ca5c","title":"Who Got the Brexit Blues? The Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the <scp>UK</scp>","abstract":"We use the 2015–16 waves of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (Understanding Society) to look at subjective wellbeing around the time of the June 2016 EU membership Referendum in the UK (Brexit). We employ measures of both evaluative and affective wellbeing, namely life satisfaction and mental distress, respectively. We find that those reporting lower life satisfaction in 2015 were more likely to express a preference for leaving the EU in 2016, while mental distress was less predictive of pro‐Brexit attitudes. Post‐Referendum, those with Leave preferences enjoyed an increase in life satisfaction but there was no change in average life satisfaction in the overall sample. In contrast, the average level of mental distress increased in the sample post‐ Referendum, with no significant difference between those preferring to remain in or to leave the EU . We test the robustness of our results by considering a number of potential caveats, such as sample selection, unobserved individual fixed effects and the interval between interviews. Overall, our results suggest that levels of subjective wellbeing may be both a cause and a result of the 2016 Brexit vote.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Nattavudh Powdthavee","Anke C. Plagnol","Paul Frijters","Andrew E. Clark"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12304","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f2ca83aea5c59ebc","title":"Witchcraft beliefs as a cultural legacy of the Atlantic slave trade: Evidence from two continents","abstract":"This paper argues that the historical slave trade contributed to the propagation of persistent witchcraft beliefs on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and establishes two key empirical patterns. First, it shows that in Sub-Saharan Africa, representatives of ethnic groups which were more heavily exposed to the Atlantic slave trade in the past are more likely to believe in witchcraft today, thus establishing a link between historical trauma and contemporary culture. Second, exploring the role of the slave trade in cultural transmission across continents, this paper finds that Afro-descendants in modern Latin America are substantially more likely to believe in witchcraft relative to other ancestral groups. Moreover, accounting for ancestry and other relevant factors, people residing in regions historically more reliant on African slave labor are also more likely to be witchcraft believers. These findings support ethnographic narratives on the connection between slave trade, slavery, and the entrenchment of witchcraft beliefs and shed light on the nature of these beliefs and related practices as a cultural framework for interpreting misfortune and a mechanism of enslavement in local communities.","wordCount":178,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Boris Gershman"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.103362","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f2ce69c3daecee6a","title":"The local governance of COVID-19: Disease prevention and social security in rural India","abstract":"Countries around the world have undertaken a wide range of strategies to halt the spread of COVID-19 and control the economic fallout left in its wake. Rural areas of developing countries pose particular difficulties for developing and implementing effective responses owing to underdeveloped health infrastructure, uneven state capacity for infection control, and endemic poverty. This paper makes the case for the critical role of local governance in coordinating pandemic response by examining how state authorities are attempting to bridge the gap between the need for rapid, vigorous response to the pandemic and local realities in three Indian states - Rajasthan, Odisha, and Kerala. Through a combination of interviews with mid and low-level bureaucrats and a review of policy documents, we show how the urgency of COVID-19 response has galvanized new kinds of cross-sectoral and multi-scalar interaction between administrative units involved in coordinating responses, as local governments have assumed central responsibility in the implementation of disease control and social security mechanisms. Evidence from Kerala in particular suggests that the state's long term investment in democratic local government and arrangements for incorporating women within grassroots state functions (through its Kudumbashree program) has built a high degree of public trust and cooperation with state actors, while local authorities embrace an ethic of care in the implementation of state responses. These observations, from the early months of the pandemic in South Asia, can serve as a foundation for future studies of how existing institutional arrangements and their histories pattern the long-term success of disease control and livelihood support as the pandemic proceeds. Governance, we argue, will be as important to understanding the trajectory of COVID-19 impacts and recovery as biology, demography, and economy.","wordCount":279,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Anwesha Dutta","Harry W. Fischer"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105234","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f2d58d17c5b897db","title":"Inequality, living standards, and growth: two centuries of economic development in Mexico<sup>†</sup>","abstract":"Historical wage and income data provide both normative measures of living standards, and indicators of patterns of economic development. This study shows that, given limited historical data, median incomes are most appropriate for measuring welfare and inequality, while urban unskilled wages can be used to test dualist models of development. We present new estimates of these series for Mexico from 1800 to 2015 and find that both have historically failed to keep up with aggregate growth: GDP per worker is now over eight times higher than in the nineteenth century, while unskilled urban real wages are only 2.2 times higher, and national median incomes only 2.0 times higher. From the perspective of inequality and social welfare, our findings confirm that there is no automatic positive relationship between economic growth and rising living standards for the majority. From the perspective of development, we argue that these findings are explained by a dual economy model incorporating Lewis's assumption of a reserve army of labour, and we explain why the decline in inequality predicted by Kuznets has not occurred.","wordCount":176,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Ingrid Bleynat","Amílcar E. Challú","Paul Segal"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13027","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f2dc71174887c812","title":"Societal diversity, group identities and their implications for tax morale","abstract":"We study how the tax morale of individuals is influenced by societal diversity in their place of residence. Using data from the World Value Survey, we compare the effects that diversity has on self-reported measures of tax morale at the national, sub-national and individual level. We show first that, both across countries and within countries across sub-national regions, greater diversity is associated with lower average levels of tax morale. We then document that within countries and regions tax morale is lower among individuals who are less similar to others and this effect operates more strongly in places characterized by higher levels of diversity. This pattern applies to diversity in terms of different social cleavages, including income, ethnicity, language or religion, but is particularly pronounced when it comes to diversity in terms of cultural values. This suggests that social identification is important for how people perceive their responsibility of paying taxes.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Fabian ten Kate","Mariko J. Klasing","Petros Milionis"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.04.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f2f06cba4125c3f5","title":"Fintech, technological innovation and regional economic growth: Theoretical modeling and empirical evidence","abstract":"This study aims to investigate the role of fintech in stimulating innovation and promoting regional economic growth. A Multi-Sector Endogenous Growth Model (MEGM) is constructed by incorporating fintech while internalizing technological progress and human capital accumulation within the framework of creative destruction. Based on this model, we theoretically analyze how fintech influences innovation and regional economic growth, followed by empirical testing using panel data from 246 prefecture-level cities in China during the period from 2012 to 2020. Furthermore, we contextualize these findings within China's fintech development landscape, trends in technological innovation, and patterns of regional economic growth. The results demonstrate that fintech exerts a significant incentive effect on regional innovation and effectively promotes economic growth. Heterogeneity analysis based on cities' endowments reveals that the impact of fintech is more pronounced in financially developed cities, those with high digital endowments, as well as in first- and second-tier cities. The analyses presented herein elucidate how fintech facilitates technology-driven regional economic growth in China, providing valuable insights for fostering innovation-driven development through fintech.","wordCount":170,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Xirong Huang","Jichang Dong","Xiuting Li"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102397","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-f2f727f823070307","title":"Coordinating expectations through central bank projections","abstract":"Central banks are increasingly communicating their economic outlook in an effort to manage the public and financial market participants' expectations. We provide original causal evidence that the information communicated and the assumptions underlying a central bank's projection can matter for expectation formation and aggregate stability. Using a between-subject design, we systematically vary the central bank's projected forecasts in an experimental macroeconomy where subjects are incentivized to forecast the output gap and inflation. Without projections, subjects exhibit a wide range of heuristics, with the modal heuristic involving a significant backward-looking component. Ex-Ante Rational dual projections of the output gap and inflation significantly reduce the number of subjects' using backward-looking heuristics and nudge expectations in the direction of the rational expectations equilibrium. Ex-Ante Rational interest rate projections are cognitively challenging to employ and have limited effects on the distribution of heuristics. Adaptive dual projections generate unintended inflation volatility by inducing boundedly-rational forecasters to employ the projection and model-consistent forecasters to utilize the projection as a proxy for aggregate expectations. All projections reduce output gap disagreement but increase inflation disagreement. Central bank credibility is significantly diminished when the central bank makes larger forecast errors when communicating a relatively more complex projection. Our findings suggest that inflation-targeting central banks should strategically ignore agents' irrationalities when constructing their projections and communicate easy-to-process information.","wordCount":218,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh","Luba Petersen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09684-6","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f30097e486f31193","title":"The Persistent Effects of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet","abstract":"Using a natural experiment, we show that temporary place-based subsidies generate persistent effects on economic density. The spatial regression discontinuity design controls for continuous local agglomeration externalities, so we attribute an important role to capital formation in explaining persistent spatial patterns of economic activity. This persistence is driven by higher local public investment levels, which local governments could maintain after the end of the program because of a persistently higher tax base. We also find evidence for significant local relocation of economic activity, which raises doubts that the net effect of the policy is positive. Finally, we show that transfers have capitalized in land rents such that pretreatment landowners have benefited from the program.","wordCount":114,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Maximilian von Ehrlich","Tobias Seidel"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160395","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f30176a71074a3b7","title":"Instrument approval by the Sargan test and its consequences for coefficient estimation","abstract":"Empirical econometric findings are often vindicated by supplementing them with the p-values of Sargan–Hansen tests for overidentifying restrictions, provided these exceed a chosen small nominal significance level. It is illustrated here that the probability that such tests reject instrument validity may often barely exceed small levels, even when instruments are seriously invalid, whereas even minor invalidity of instruments can severely undermine inference on regression coefficients by instrumental variable estimators. These uncomfortable patterns may be aggravated when particular valid or invalid instruments are relatively weak or strong.","wordCount":86,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Jan F. Kiviet","Sebastian Kripfganz"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109935","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f3018f6eb2e18510","title":"Do Investors Care about Impact?","abstract":"We assess how investors’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for sustainable investments responds to the social impact of those investments, using a framed field experiment. While investors have a substantial WTP for sustainable investments, they do not pay significantly more for more impact. This also holds for dedicated impact investors. When investors compare several sustainable investments, their WTP responds to relative, but not to absolute, levels of impact. Regardless of investments’ impact, investors experience positive emotions when choosing sustainable investments. Our findings suggest that the WTP for sustainable investments is primarily driven by an emotional, rather than a calculative, valuation of impact.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Florian Heeb","Julian F Kölbel","Falko Paetzold","Stefan Zeisberger"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhac066","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f3162229d670820b","title":"Growing up in ethnic enclaves: language proficiency and educational attainment of immigrant children","abstract":"Does the regional concentration of immigrants of the same ethnicity affect immigrant children’s acquisition of host country language skills and educational attainment? We exploit the concentration of five ethnic groups in 1985 emanating from the exogenous placement of guest workers across German regions during the 1960s and 1970s. Results from a model with region and ethnicity fixed effects indicate that exposure to a higher own ethnic concentration impairs immigrant children’s host country language proficiency and increases school dropout. A key mediating factor for the detrimental language effect is parents’ lower speaking proficiency in the host country language, whereas inter-ethnic contacts with natives and economic conditions do not play a role in language proficiency or educational attainment.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Alexander M. Danzer","Carsten Feuerbaum","Marc Piopiunik","Ludger Woessmann"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00889-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f31bb96a4bf4617a","title":"Creditor rights, collateral reuse, and credit supply","abstract":"Securities dealers receive mortgages as collateral for credit lines provided to mortgage companies and reuse the same collateral to borrow money. Exploiting the 2005 BAPCPA rule change, which granted mortgage collateral preferred bankruptcy treatment, I find that strengthening creditor rights increases dealers’ collateral reuse. Increasing collateral reuse creates a money multiplier that increases credit supply. Using a novel dataset linking dealers to the mortgage companies they fund reveals that post-BAPCPA, dealers supply additional credit to mortgage companies by increasing credit lines and relaxing restrictions on collateral securing them. In response, mortgage companies increase origination volume and shift into riskier products.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Brittany Lewis"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f31c9d59653739e3","title":"Gender differences in social interactions","abstract":"We study how the random assignment of new students to introductory-week groups shapes subsequent friendship networks. Both women and men report being much more likely to be friends with same-gender students with whom they were (randomly) assigned in a group during their first week on campus, and the effect is much stronger for women. When students from the same cohort play a repeated trust game in the experimental laboratory, their behavior helps explain what we observed in the field. Women display more stability and less flexibility than men in their interactions with individuals with whom they had previously played. This difference is enough to generate homophily in the observational data even though subjects show no intrinsic preference for same-gender interaction.","wordCount":120,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Guido Friebel","Marie Lalanne","Bernard Richter","Peter Schwardmann","Paul Seabright"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.03.016","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f3243e060f851d17","title":"Phillips meets Beveridge","abstract":"The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate measure of “slack” in the economy. In this work, we systematically assess the ability of variables commonly used in the literature to (i) predict and (ii) explain inflation fluctuations over time and across U.S. metropolitan areas. In particular, we exploit a newly constructed panel dataset with job openings and vacancy filling cost proxies covering 1982–2022. We find that the vacancy-unemployment (V/U) ratio and vacancy filling cost proxies outperform other slack measures, in particular the unemployment rate. Beveridge curve shifts—notably, movements in matching efficiency—are responsible for the superior performance of the V/U ratio over unemployment.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Régis Barnichon","Adam Hale Shapiro"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103660","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f3279db506415956","title":"A corporate credit rating model with autoregressive errors","abstract":"In this paper we propose a longitudinal credit rating model which accounts for the serial correlation in the ratings. We achieve this by imposing an autoregressive structure of order one on the errors of a multivariate ordinal regression model. The longitudinal structure of the model improves significantly both the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance compared to static models. By modeling the joint distribution of the ratings over time, the framework allows us to obtain predictions conditional on the past rating history of a firm, which clearly out-perform the unconditional predictions both in- and out-of-sample. This shows the importance of incorporating past rating information in the prediction. Another upside lies in the framework’s ability to deal with missing rating observations. A real data example is provided by using a sample of US publicly traded corporates rated by S&P for the years 1985–2016. The determinants of corporate credit ratings are pre-selected using the ordinal version of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Additionally, as a model extension we allow the regression coefficients of the selected variables to vary over time in the longitudinal model. This allows us to gain a better understanding of the drivers and evolution of the rating behavior over the sample period. Finally, based on the longitudinal model with LASSO selected variables, we find evidence that S&P exhibits procyclical aspects in their rating behavior.","wordCount":226,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Rainer Hirk","Laura Vana","Kurt Hornik"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.09.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f32f0baee3942b00","title":"Air conditioning and electricity expenditure: The role of climate in temperate countries","abstract":"This paper investigates how households adopt and use air conditioning to adapt to climate change and increasingly high temperatures, which pose a threat to the health of vulnerable populations. The analysis examines conditions in eight temperate, industrialized countries (Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland). The identification strategy exploits cross-country and cross-household variations by matching geocoded households with climate data. Our findings suggest that households respond to excess heat by purchasing and using air conditioners, leading to increased electricity consumption. Households on average spend 35%–42% more on electricity when they adopt air conditioning. Through an illustrative analysis, we show that climate change and the growing demand for air conditioning are likely to exacerbate energy poverty. The number of energy poor who spend a high share of income on electricity increases, and households in the lowest income quantile are the most negatively affected.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Teresa Randazzo","Enrica De Cian","Malcolm Mistry"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f33e8c35b591c525","title":"A new way of evaluating the optimality of a transportation improvement in a class of urban land use models","abstract":"At the optimum, the cost of, and resource savings from an infinitesimal transportation improvement are equal. The improvement changes the equilibrium allocation. In first-best economies, however by the envelope theorem, this reallocation does not have a first-order effect; therefore, the resource savings can be measured at the pre-improvement allocation. When the pre-improvement allocation is expressed in terms of physical location, the resource savings equal the reduction in the aggregate transportation costs induced by the improvement. By using a transformation of variables first introduced in Arnott and Stiglitz (1981), this paper derives a new way of evaluating the optimality of a transportation improvement. We express the pre-improvement allocation in terms of the transportation cost location instead of the physical location. From this perspective, the transportation improvement changes the transportation cost shape of the city by essentially generating new land. The optimality implies that the aggregate differential land rent of the generated land evaluated at the pre-improvement rents equals the cost of the transportation improvement. The fact that the optimality refers to the pre-improvement rents only carries policy relevance, say in the impact evaluation of the transportation improvement. This paper demonstrates the generality of this optimality, synthesizes and reinterprets the results in the literature from this alternative perspective, and discusses some insights that it generates.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Abu Nur Rashed Ahmed","Yuichiro Yoshida","Richard Arnott"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103406","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f33fc73453b96663","title":"The Midlife Crisis","abstract":"This paper documents a longitudinal crisis of midlife among the inhabitants of rich nations. Yet middle‐aged citizens in our datasets are close to their peak earnings, have typically experienced little or no illness, reside in some of the safest countries in the world, and live in the most prosperous era in human history. This is paradoxical and troubling. The finding is consistent, however, with the prediction—one little‐known to economists—of Elliott Jaques (1965). Our analysis does not rest on elementary cross‐sectional analysis. Instead, the paper uses panel and through‐time data on, in total, approximately 500,000 individuals. It checks that the key results are not due to cohort effects. Nor do we rely on simple life satisfaction measures. The paper shows that there are approximately quadratic hill‐shaped patterns in data on midlife suicide, sleeping problems, alcohol dependence, concentration difficulties, memory problems, intense job strain, disabling headaches, suicidal feelings, and extreme depression. We believe that the seriousness of this societal problem has not been grasped by the affluent world's policy‐makers.","wordCount":167,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Osea Giuntella","Sally McManus","Redzo Mujcic","Andrew J. Oswald","Nattavudh Powdthavee","Ahmed Tohamy"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12452","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f34692cd052e0432","title":"False alarm? Estimating the marginal value of health signals","abstract":"We investigate the marginal value of information in the context of health signals that people receive after checkups. Although underlying health status is similar for individuals just below and above a clinical threshold, treatments differ according to the checkup signals they receive. For the general population, whereas health warnings about diabetes increase healthcare utilization, health outcomes do not improve. However, among high-risk individuals, outcomes do improve, and improved health is worth its cost. These results indicate that the marginal value of health information depends on setting appropriate thresholds for health warnings and targeting individuals most likely to benefit from follow-up medical care.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Toshiaki Iizuka","Katsuhiko Nishiyama","Brian Chen","Karen Eggleston"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104368","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f34cf627ab9670dd","title":"Subsidies, new firms, and productivity in global manufacturing","abstract":"We investigate how government subsidies influence the productivity of new firms, by leveraging data on more than 30,000 government subsidy initiatives and about 1.2 million manufacturing firms distributed worldwide in the years 2012-2019. First, using a DiD framework with multiple time periods, we document that sectors exposed to subsidies experience a statistically significant increase in new firm entry rates. We then examine the firm-level data through a series of augmented 3-way FE DiD models. Our findings reveal that subsidies have significant effects on the productivity of new firms. On average, subsidies lead to the entry of new firms with 5.53 % lower productivity compared to those entering untreated markets. The productivity gap of new firms in subsidized markets persists in the years after entry. We also apply a text recognition method to analyze the effects of specific subsidy attributes. We find that unconditional tax breaks and loans are mostly responsible for the negative effects of subsidies, while subsidies promoting firm internationalization and investments by small firms may lead to the establishment of more productive firms. Subsidies aimed at supporting the adoption of green and automation technologies do not always reduce the productivity of new firms. Finally, estimates about incumbents’ performance show that subsidies may intensify competition in the market and do not necessarily lead to greater resource misallocation within sectors.","wordCount":220,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Filippo Belloc","Antonino Lofaro"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103238","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f357897ab1962293","title":"Inequality as experienced difference: A reformulation of the Gini coefficient","abstract":"Inequality is typically measured as the degree of dispersion of a distribution of individual attributes, say, wealth, as is captured for example by the Lorenz curve, and its associated statistic, the Gini coefficient. But both the economics and social psychology of experienced inequality are better expressed by differences between an individual and others. There is a natural way to do this using the standard definition of the Gini coefficient as one half the mean difference among individuals, relative to the population mean wealth. Here we show that reformulating the Gini coefficient as a measure of experienced inequality on a complete social network yields a computational algorithm that, unlike the conventional one, is consistent with this definition and irrespective of population size varies from 0 (no differences among individuals) to 1 (one individual owns all the wealth). Our proposed measure also avoids a downward bias in the standard algorithm, which for small populations can be substantial. Because social networks are far from complete, the pairwise comparisons based on social interactions in which people routinely engage may support a level of experienced inequality that either exceeds or falls short of the Gini coefficient measured on a hypothetical complete network. We illustrate this fact with empirical estimates for a farming community in Nicaragua.","wordCount":210,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Samuel Bowles","Wendy Carlin"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108789","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f35ecc0d4ec32805","title":"Rational bubbles and public debt policy: A quantitative analysis","abstract":"Paying off public debt benefits at most a small group of wealthy individuals. Do empirically plausible dynastic general equilibrium models admit bubbles and Ponzi-schemes under rational expectations? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the answer is affirmative. The central assumption is that current securities do not represent claims to all future profits. Calibrating the model to U.S. data, we find that it is consistent with the presence of rational bubbles. The observed level of public debt is entirely a Ponzi-scheme. There are large welfare gains from eliminating bubbles on private assets and lodging all the non-fundamental asset value in public debt. Paying off public debt benefits only a small group of wealthy individuals.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["David Domeij","Tore Ellingsen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f373342236b80792","title":"The emerging endgame: The EU ETS on the road towards climate neutrality","abstract":"The 2023 reform of the EU emissions trading system (ETS) has brought to the forefront the issue of allowance market functioning in the long run. With the emissions cap set to go down to zero by around 2040, the next decade can be said to mark the ‘ETS endgame’. That is, when allowance supply approaches zero, the market is bound to undergo fundamental changes. Yet the understanding and modeling of terminal market dynamics with ever-increasing allowance scarcity is limited. We analyze possible changes in market conditions and behaviors, and discuss associated challenges in two steps. First, we use the numerical model LIMES-EU to illuminate the market dynamics instigated by the reform, i.e. key changes in allowance price formation, supply adjustment and abatement by sector. Second, we use our numerical results as a backdrop to identify potential frictions (financial, informational, distributional) that may arise or become exacerbated as the endgame unfolds. Besides shedding light on whether the ETS is fit for climate neutrality, these frictions further delineate avenues for future research to improve the understanding and modeling of emissions trading in the long run.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Michael Pahle","Simon Quemin","Sebastián Osorio","Claudia Günther","Robert Pietzcker"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101476","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f384b77c06d48e33","title":"“Now that you mention it”: A survey experiment on information, inattention and online privacy","abstract":"Personal data lie at the forefront of different business models and constitute the main source of revenue of several online companies. In many cases, consumers may have incomplete information or may be inattentive about the digital transactions of their data. This paper investigates whether highlighting positive or negative aspects of online privacy policies, thereby mitigating the informational problem, can affect consumers' privacy actions and attitudes. Results of an online survey experiment indicate that participants adopt a more conservative stance on disclosing sensitive and identifiable information, even when positive attitudes of companies towards their privacy are made salient, compared to when privacy is not mentioned. On the other hand, they do not change their attitudes and social actions towards privacy. These findings suggest that privacy behavior is not necessarily sensitive to exposure to objective threats or benefits of disclosing personal information. Rather, people are inattentive and their dormant privacy concerns may manifest only when consumers are asked to think about privacy.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Hélia Marreiros","Mirco Tonin","Michael Vlassopoulos","m.c. schraefel"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.03.024","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f3bc4e9ec65dd9b6","title":"Experimenting with Contests for Experimentation","abstract":"We report an experimental test of alternative rules in innovation contests when success may not be feasible and contestants may learn from each other. Following Halac, Kartik, and Liu (in press), the contest designer can vary the prize allocation rule from Winner‐Take‐All (WTA) in which the first successful innovator receives the entire prize to Shared in which all successful innovators during the contest duration share in the prize. The designer can also vary the information disclosure policy from Public in which at each period, all information about contestants' past successes and failures is publicly available, to Private, in which contestants only know their own histories. In our setting, the optimal contest design in terms of maximizing the probability that at least one innovator is successful depends on the probability of successful innovation, given that innovation is feasible. Under some parameters the designer will prefer a WTA‐Public contest; while, under others he will prefer Shared‐Private. Our experiments provide evidence that Private disclosure contests behaviorally dominate Public disclosure, regardless of the prize allocation rule, and moreover that Shared‐Private contests dominate WTA‐Private contests.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Cary Deck","Erik O. Kimbrough"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12185","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f3cd2ed31e532ded","title":"Exchange rate pass‐through into retail prices","abstract":"We study exchange rate pass‐through and its determinants using scanner data on fast moving consumer goods sold by 1,041 outlets in the United Arab Emirates between 2006 and 2010. The data are augmented with country of origin information. Our main finding is that exchange rate pass‐through varies more across retailers within regions than across regions, and in particular that pass‐through increases with retailer market share. We also find that exchange rate pass‐through is negatively correlated with both product quality and the elasticity of substitution of the product category and positively correlated with the frequency of price adjustment.","wordCount":97,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Alexis Antoniades","Nicola Zaniboni"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12203","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f3d3124a2743f104","title":"Light pollution, sleep deprivation, and infant health at birth","abstract":"We conduct the first study to examine the fetal health impact of light pollution based on a direct measure of skyglow, an important aspect of light pollution. Using an empirical regularity discovered in physics (called Walker's law) as an instrumental variable, we address the potential endogeneity problem associated with the skyglow variable. We find evidence of reduced birth weight, shortened gestational length, and increases in preterm births. Specifically, increased nighttime brightness, characterized by being able to see only one‐fourth to one‐third of the stars that are visible in the natural unpolluted night sky, is associated with an increase of 1.48 percentage points in the likelihood of a preterm birth. Our study adds to the literature on the impact of early‐life exposure to pollution, which so far has focused primarily on air pollution. Our study has important policy implications regarding the necessity of minimizing skyglow that is, for example, contributed by streetlights.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Laura M. Argys","Susan L. Averett","Muzhe Yang"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12477","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f3d930b32ab8e176","title":"How large are double markups?","abstract":"Because prices exceed marginal costs in many upstream and downstream industries, downstream prices often reflect a double markup. This paper estimates the size of double markups across many industries accounting for direct and indirect upstream markups. The double markups in many U.S. manufacturing industries are significant because of large upstream and downstream markups and increasing returns to scale.","wordCount":58,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Elisa Duran-Micco","Jeffrey M. Perloff"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102885","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f3dc78c166f95f4f","title":"Parental Job Loss and Children's Long-Term Outcomes: Evidence from 7 Million Fathers' Layoffs","abstract":"How do parental layoffs and their large attendant income losses affect children's long-term outcomes? This question has proven difficult to answer due to the endogeneity of parental layoffs. I overcome this problem by exploiting the timing of 7 million fathers' layoffs when children are age 12–29 in administrative data for the United States. Layoffs dramatically reduce family income but only slightly reduce college enrollment, college quality, and early career earnings. These effects are consistent with a weak estimated propensity to spend on college out of marginal parental income. I find that larger effects based on firm closures stem from selection.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Nathaniel Hilger"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150295","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f3f038e1463c597a","title":"Social Ties in Academia: A Friend Is a Treasure","abstract":"This paper employs a unique data set on articles, authors, and editors of the top general interest journals in economics to investigate the role of social connections in the publication process. Ties between editors and authors are identified based on their academic histories. About 43% of the articles published in these journals are authored by scholars connected to one editor at the time of the publication. Ph.D. students and faculty colleagues of an editor also improve their publication outcomes when this editor is in charge of a journal.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Tommaso Colussi"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00666","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f40082b03362ef87","title":"Does inflation targeting matter? An experimental investigation","abstract":"We use laboratory experiments with human subjects to test the relevance of different inflation-targeting regimes. In particular and within the standard New Keynesian model, we evaluate to what extent communication of the inflation target is relevant to the success of inflation targeting. We find that if the central bank cares only about inflation stabilization, announcing the inflation target does not make a difference in terms of macroeconomic performance compared with a standard active monetary policy. However, if the central bank also cares about the stabilization of economic activity, communicating the target helps to reduce the volatility of inflation, interest rate, and output gap, although their average levels are not affected. This finding is consistent with the theoretical literature and provides a rationale for the adoption of a flexible inflation-targeting regime.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Camille Cornand","Cheick Kader M'Baye"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000250","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f406ee33a8eb32ca","title":"Corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the environment: Does CSR increase emissions?","abstract":"This paper develops a corporate social responsibility (CSR) model under a time-consistent emission tax in a monopoly market. This paper also analyzes the effects of CSR behavior on economic welfare and the environment. The results show that (i) the promotion of CSR invariably enhances social welfare, (ii) when environmental damage is serious and the cost efficiency of emission reduction is low, then a pure profit-maximizing monopolist has some incentives for behaving as a socially responsible firm to enhance its own net profit, and (iii) in stark contrast to common belief, CSR can yield an emission-increasing effect. Consequently, this paper reveals that CSR is not always beneficial for the environment.","wordCount":109,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Katsufumi Fukuda","Yasunori Ouchida"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104933","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f407f9b1a60447d4","title":"Robust Standard Errors in Small Samples: Some Practical Advice","abstract":"We study the properties of heteroskedasticity-robust confidence intervals for regression parameters. We show that confidence intervals based on a degrees-of-freedom correction suggested by Bell and McCaffrey (2002) are a natural extension of a principled approach to the Behrens-Fisher problem. We suggest a further improvement for the case with clustering. We show that these standard errors can lead to substantial improvements in coverage rates even for samples with fifty or more clusters.We recommend that researchers routinely calculate the Bell-McCaffrey degrees-of-freedom adjustment to assess potential problems with conventional robust standard errors.","wordCount":89,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Guido W. Imbens","Michal Kolesár"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00552","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f40bae4020e94f80","title":"Cost of Living Inequality During the Great Recession","abstract":"We construct income-specific price indexes for the period from 2004 to 2016. We find substantial differences across income groups that arise during the Great Recession. The difference in annual inflation between the lowest quartile of the income distribution and the highest quartile was 0.22 percentage points for 2004–2007, 0.85 percentage points for 2008–2013, and 0.02 percentage points for 2014–2016. We find that product quality substitution and changes in the shopping behavior, margins mostly available to richer households, explain around 40% of the gap. Our evidence shows that not accounting for these differences in price indexes could lead to significant biases in the calculation of consumption and income inequality.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["David Argente","Munseob Lee"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa018","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f411386ad8169153","title":"Inequality of Educational Opportunities and the Role of Learning Intensity","abstract":"Intensified curricula make education more dependent on parents and private tutoring. Over the 2000s, many federal states in Germany shortened the duration of secondary school by one year while keeping the curriculum unchanged. The quasi-experimental variation arising from the staggered introduction of this reform allows me to identify the causal effect of increased learning intensity, the ratio of curricular content covered per year, on Inequality of Educational Opportunity (IEOp), the share in educational outcome variance explained by predetermined circumstances beyond a student’s control. Findings show that higher learning intensity aggravated IEOp due to parental resources becoming more important through support opportunities like private tuition, adapting to an intensified educational process. The effect is stronger for mathematics/science than for reading, implying the existence of subject-dependent curricular flexibilities. My findings underscore the importance of accounting for distributional consequences when evaluating reforms aimed at increasing educational efficiency and point to the role of learning intensity for explaining changes in educational opportunities influencing social mobility.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Sebastian Camarero Garcia"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102084","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f4227dc1c971d499","title":"A New Socio-economic Indicator to Measure the Performance of Bioeconomy Sectors in Europe","abstract":"The European Commission supports the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into value added products and bio-energy. A new bioeconomy strategy aimed at promoting a sustainable Europe was launched in October 2018. However, little work has been done to monitor, model and appraise the impacts and developmental trajectories of bioeconomy sectors. To gauge the current sustainability performance of individual European countries, the present study proposes a new indicator – the “socio-economic indicator for the bioeconomy” (SEIB) – to measure the socio-economic performance of bioeconomy sectors. Drawing on Eurostat data and the analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision analysis is employed with the aim of providing a direct comparison between member states (MSs). However, bioeconomy involves a large number of sectors and, therefore, it is useful to propose two versions of this indicator in order also to single out the impact of most innovative sectors: the first version considers all bio-based sectors (“SEIB for overall sectors”) while the second version excludes all primary sectors (“SEIB for manufacturing and bio-energy sectors”). The results identify three groups of MSs (virtuous, in-between and laggard) with reference to the European average. Ireland occupies the first position in the ranking, and only three other MSs (Denmark, Portugal and Austria) qualify as “virtuous” countries in both rankings.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Idiano D’Adamo","Pasquale Marcello Falcone","Piergiuseppe Morone"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106724","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f42dfc807c2af488","title":"Components of uncertainty","abstract":"Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This article offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of keywords. The article finds that, depending on its source, the effects of uncertainty on a macroeconomic variable may differ. I find that both good (expansionary effect) and bad (contractionary effect) types of uncertainty exist.","wordCount":89,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Vegard H. Larsen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12499","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f4323e8ecbaa5547","title":"Unusual shocks in our usual models","abstract":"We propose a method to allow usual business cycle models to account for the unusual COVID episode. The pandemic and the public and private responses to it are represented by a new shock called the Covid shock, which loads onto wedges that underlie the usual shocks and comes with news about its evolution. We apply our method to a standard medium-scale model, estimating the loadings with 2020q2 data and the evolving news using professional forecasts. The Covid shock accounts for most of the early macroeconomic dynamics, was inflationary and a persistent drag on activity, and the majority of its effects were unanticipated. We also show how the Covid shock can be used to estimate DSGE models with data before, during, and after the pandemic.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Filippo Ferroni","Jonas D. M. Fisher","Leonardo Melosi"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103598","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-f434da6eca33e582","title":"Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger","abstract":"We use IFPRI's IMPACT framework of linked biophysical and structural economic models to examine developments in global agricultural production systems, climate change, and food security. Building on related work on how increased investment in agricultural research, resource management, and infrastructure can address the challenges of meeting future food demand, we explore the costs and implications of these investments for reducing hunger in Africa by 2030. This analysis is coupled with a new investment estimation model, based on the perpetual inventory methodology (PIM), which allows for a better assessment of the costs of achieving projected agricultural improvements. We find that climate change will continue to slow projected reductions in hunger in the coming decades-increasing the number of people at risk of hunger in 2030 by 16 million in Africa compared to a scenario without climate change. Investments to increase agricultural productivity can offset the adverse impacts of climate change and help reduce the share of people at risk of hunger in 2030 to five percent or less in Northern, Western, and Southern Africa, but the share is projected to remain at ten percent or more in Eastern and Central Africa. Investments in Africa to achieve these results are estimated to cost about 15 billion USD per year between 2015 and 2030, as part of a larger package of investments costing around 52 billion USD in developing countries.","wordCount":226,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Daniel Mason-D’Croz","Timothy B. Sulser","Keith Wiebe","Mark W. Rosegrant","Sarah K. Lowder","Alejandro Nin‐Pratt","Dirk Willenbockel","Sherman Robinson","Tingju Zhu","Nicola Cenacchi","Shahnila Dunston","Richard Robertson"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.12.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f43582eb1717299d","title":"Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example","abstract":"This paper uses administrative employment and conviction data to evaluate laws that restrict access to job seekers’ criminal records. Convictions generate decreases in employment and earnings, partly due to shifts toward lower-paying industries less likely to check criminal histories. However, a 2013 Seattle law barring employers from examining job seekers’ records until after an initial screening had negligible impacts on ex-offenders’ labor market outcomes. The results are consistent with employers deferring background checks until later in the interview process or ex-offenders applying only to jobs where clean records are not required, a pattern supported by survey evidence.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Evan K. Rose"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/708063","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f45608416ecca489","title":"Evaluating borrower’s default risk in peer-to-peer lending: evidence from a lending platform in China","abstract":"Recent years have witnessed the popularity of online peer-to-peer lending, which allows individuals to borrow from and lend to each other on an Internet-based platform. Using data from a large P2P platform in China, this article explores the factors that determine the default risk based on the demographic characteristics of borrowers. Moreover, we propose a credit risk evaluation model, which can quantify the default risk of each P2P loan. Empirical results reveal that gender, age, marital status, educational level, working years, company size, monthly payment, loan amount, debt to income ratio and delinquency history play a significant role in loan defaults. Finally, we analyse the relationship between default risk and these contributory variables, and the possible causes are also discussed in this study.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Xuchen Lin","Xiaolong Li","Zhong Zheng"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1262526","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f458417a6e9f8345","title":"Director networks and firm value","abstract":"Are the professional networks of directors valuable? To separate the effect of director networks on firm value from the effect of other value-relevant director attributes, we use the unexpected deaths of directors as a shock to the director networks of interlocked directors. By studying the announcement returns and using a difference-in-differences methodology, we find the negative shock to director networks reduces the value of interlocked firms – a result that is stronger for firms that are more likely to benefit from access to information from board connections. This evidence is consistent with director networks being valuable and improving access to information.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Tor‐Erik Bakke","Jeffrey R. Black","Hamed Mahmudi","Scott C. Linn"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102545","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f464e4f47ceec114","title":"E-invoicing, tax audits and VAT compliance","abstract":"Difficult to find another policy shift that has promised as much for tax compliance in developing countries as digitalization. Yet the evidence on its impact is scant. Using the universe of tax filings in Rwanda over the period 2012–2019, this paper investigates the extent to which digitalization (in the form of e-invoicing) has impacted on VAT compliance and in particular the effectiveness of tax audits. The evidence suggests that on the aggregate e-invoicing adoption has increased firms’ net VAT payments and has improved the efficiency of VAT audits. It is also shown that e-invoicing has a sizeable impact on VAT liabilities reported by audited firms, with this impact being attributed to tax audits being more efficient rather than to VAT registered firms becoming more compliant following their adoption of e-invoicing.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Christos Kotsogiannis","Luca Salvadori","John Karangwa","Innocente Murasi"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103403","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f46ccd5cb91cac25","title":"Complementarity between labor and energy: A firm-level analysis","abstract":"This paper extends the literature on the potential negative employment effects of environmental policy by bringing to the fore a key factor that directly regulates its magnitude: the elasticity of substitution between labor and energy. Using firm-level data from the French manufacturing sector and addressing endogeneity concerns, we provide empirical estimates that point to strong complementarity between labor and energy. We then investigate the empirical relevance of the elasticity of substitution in studying firms’ response to changing energy prices. Our findings suggest that the negative employment effects of rising energy prices are largely driven by firms with limited substitution capacity.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Lucas Bretschger","Ara Jo"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102934","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f471c89c022d00da","title":"Management practices and M&A success","abstract":"We study whether management practices determine merger and acquisition (M&A) success. We model management as an unobserved (latent) variable in a standard microeconomic model of the firm and derive firm-year management estimates. We validate these estimates against benchmark survey data on management practices and by using Monte Carlo simulation. We show that our measure is among the most important determinants of value creation in M&A deals, substantially increasing the predictive power of models that explain cumulative abnormal returns. Thus, we offer a measure of management practices that identifies the best-performing M&As. Our results are robust to the inclusion of acquirer fixed effects and many control variables, and to several other sensitivity tests. We identify the Q-theory as the key mechanism driving our results.","wordCount":123,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Manthos D. Delis","Maria Iosifidi","Pantelis Kazakis","Steven Ongena","Efthymios G. Tsionas"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106355","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f472f2975cb5d5be","title":"Green bonds: Fueling green innovation or just a fad?","abstract":"This study investigates the impact of green bond issuance on green innovation and its underlying mechanisms. We find that green bond issuance promotes green innovation, with stronger effects observed in regions with weaker climate regulation, industries exhibiting better environmental performance, and firms with more concentrated ownership. Further analysis reveals that corporate green bonds facilitate the reallocation of investment capital into research and development, effectively mitigating financial constraints on green innovation. This upsurge in green innovation not only enhances financial performance but also yields specific environmental benefits, such as improved environmental investment and ESG performance. These empirical results underscore the significance of green finance in fostering sustainable corporate innovation and advancing climate governance, rather than merely engaging in greenwashing practices.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Hanmin Dong","Lin Zhang","Huanhuan Zheng"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107660","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f47cdf3011cca588","title":"Nonparametric estimation and inference under shape restrictions","abstract":"Economic theory often provides shape restrictions on functions of interest in applications, such as monotonicity, convexity, non-increasing (non-decreasing) returns to scale, or the Slutsky inequality of consumer theory; but economic theory does not provide finite-dimensional parametric models. This motivates nonparametric estimation under shape restrictions. Nonparametric estimates are often very noisy. Shape restrictions stabilize nonparametric estimates without imposing arbitrary restrictions, such as additivity or a single-index structure, that may be inconsistent with economic theory and the data. This paper explains how to estimate and obtain an asymptotic uniform confidence band for a conditional mean function under possibly nonlinear shape restrictions, such as the Slutsky inequality. The results of Monte Carlo experiments illustrate the finite-sample performance of the method, and an empirical example illustrates its use in an application.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Joël L. Horowitz","Sokbae Lee"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.06.019","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f47d8b833f9be171","title":"Presidential Prescriptions for State Policy: Obama's Race to the Top Initiative","abstract":"With increasing frequency, U.S. presidents have orchestrated relations between federal and state governments. A defining feature of this \"executive federalism\" is a pragmatic willingness to both borrow from and reconstitute very different types of past federalisms. A case in point is President Barack Obama's Race to the Top (RttT) initiative, which sought to stimulate the adoption of specific education reforms in state governments around the country through a series of highly prescriptive but entirely voluntary policy competitions. This paper evaluates the results of such efforts. To do so, it draws on four original data sets: a nationally representative survey of state legislators, an analysis of State of the State speeches, another of state applications to the competitions themselves, and finally, an inventory of state policymaking trends in a range of education policies that were awarded under the competition. This paper then relies upon a variety of identification strategies to gauge the influence of RttT on the nation's education policy landscape. Taken as a whole the evidence suggests that RttT, through both direct and indirect means, augmented the production of state policies that were central components of the president's education agenda.","wordCount":190,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["William G. Howell","Asya Magazinnik"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21986","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f48f8fc104bfa6ee","title":"Attention and salience in preference reversals","abstract":"We investigate the implications of Salience Theory for the classical preference reversal phenomenon, where monetary valuations contradict risky choices. It has been stated that one factor behind reversals is that monetary valuations of lotteries are inflated when elicited in isolation, and that they should be reduced if an alternative lottery is present and draws attention. We conducted two preregistered experiments, an online choice study ( N = 256 ) and an eye-tracking study ( N = 64 ), in which we investigated salience and attention in preference reversals, manipulating salience through the presence or absence of an alternative lottery during evaluations. We find that the alternative lottery draws attention, and that fixations on that lottery influence the evaluation of the target lottery as predicted by Salience Theory. The effect, however, is of a modest magnitude and fails to translate into an effect on preference reversal rates in either experiment. We also use transitions (eye movements) across outcomes of different lotteries to study attention on the states of the world underlying Salience Theory, but we find no evidence that larger salience results in more transitions.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Carlos Alós‐Ferrer","Alexander Ritschel"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09740-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f4a40b91aca111ae","title":"Unintended consequences of minimum annuity laws: An experimental study","abstract":"The need to ensure that people have adequate savings for retirement has prompted debate among regulators and academics. Certain countries have implemented or are considering implementing mandatory minimum annuity laws (e.g., Singapore and Israel), whereas others have repealed or are considering repealing such legislation (e.g., the U.K.). We investigate the introduction as well as the repeal of a regulatory change—specifically, a mandatory minimum annuity rule—using a laboratory experiment and two surveys. Our results indicate that imposing a mandatory minimum may create an anchoring effect to the threshold level. Furthermore, our results suggest that the mandatory requirement may have unintended consequences: Such laws may fail to provide an increase in the demand for annuities and may even reduce it for certain individuals. The outcome is sensitive to the relation between the level of the mandatory minimum and anticipated consumption (i.e., future financial need). Moreover, we provide novel evidence about the consequences of a repeal of mandatory minimum annuity laws and suggest that it may not restore the demand for annuities to the pre-law level.","wordCount":173,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Abigail Hurwitz","Orly Sade","Eyal Winter"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.11.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f4a8e45fa711b855","title":"Incomplete Disclosure: Evidence of Signaling and Countersignaling","abstract":"In 2011, Maricopa County adopted voluntary restaurant hygiene grade cards (A, B, C, D ). Using inspection results between 2007 and 2013, we show that only 58 percent of the subsequent inspections led to online grade posting. Although the disclosure rate in general declines with inspection outcome, higher-quality A restaurants are less likely to disclose than lower-quality A s. After examining potential explanations, we believe the observed pattern is best explained by a mixture of signaling and countersignaling: the better A restaurants use nondisclosure as a countersignal, while worse A s and better B s use disclosure to stand out from the other restaurants.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Benjamin B. Bederson","Ginger Zhe Jin","Phillip Leslie","Alexander J. Quinn","Ben Zou"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150178","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f4ac9768c141545c","title":"Misinformation technology: Internet use and political misperceptions in Africa","abstract":"The use of the Internet to access news has an impact on African citizens’ perceptions of democracy. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the Afrobarometer survey across 35 African countries over the period 2011–2018, along with an instrumental variable approach, allows addressing potential endogeneity bias between Internet use and citizens’ perceptions. The results indicate that using the Internet to obtain information has a significant negative effect on both the preference for and the perception of the extent of democracy. This negative effect is due to several factors. First, Internet use erodes trust in government institutions, mainly in the parliament and the ruling party. It increases the perception that parliament members are involved in corruption. In addition, the erosion of trust is correlated with more political mobilization, in the form of greater participation in demonstrations and voting. These results echo the existing literature and, in particular, hint at the risks of reversal of nascent democratization processes. Finally, the Internet seems to act as a misinformation channel. On the one hand, Internet users’ perception of the extent of democracy and perception of the corruption of legislators diverge from experts’ assessments. On the other hand, Internet use increases the likelihood of inconsistency in respondents’ stances on their preference for democracy. The Internet is not a neutral information channel: it tends to undermine citizens’ preference for democracy while also altering perceptions about political institutions.","wordCount":229,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Joël Cariolle","Yasmine Elkhateeb","Mathilde Maurel"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.01.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f4b060cd0d822d3f","title":"A Big Fish in a Small Pond: Ability Rank and Human Capital Investment","abstract":"We study the impact of a student’s ordinal rank in a high school cohort on educational attainment several years later. To identify a causal effect, we compare multiple cohorts within the same school, exploiting idiosyncratic variation in cohort composition. We find that a student’s ordinal rank significantly affects educational outcomes later in life. Students with a higher rank are significantly more likely to finish high school and to attend college. Exploring potential channels, we find that students with a higher rank have higher expectations about their future career, as well as a higher perceived intelligence.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Benjamin Elsner","Ingo E. Isphording"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690714","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f4b41640aedf64fd","title":"The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes","abstract":"We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon taxation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a negative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduction on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO 2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since European carbon taxes typically do not cover those sectors with the lowest marginal abatement costs.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Gilbert E. Metcalf","James H. Stock"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210052","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f4b583feb856a7a5","title":"Gender Gap under Pressure: Evidence from China's National College Entrance Examination","abstract":"We examine gender differences in the response to competitive pressure using data from the most competitive entrance exam—China's Gaokao. Compared to male students, females underperform on the competitive and high-stakes Gaokao, relative to their performance on the low-stakes mock examination. Moreover, women's performance suffers more than men's in response to negative performance shocks in an earlier exam on the same day. These effects are more pronounced for subgroups of students where the stakes matter more. Overall, these findings appear to be best explained by women's lower tolerance for pressure and weaker incentives to do well in high-stakes settings.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Xiqian Cai","Yi Lu","Jessica Pan","Songfa Zhong"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00749","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f4bde3a5bed83c3b","title":"Does green credit improve the core competence of commercial banks? Based on quasi-natural experiments in China","abstract":"The green credit policy is one of the key components of environmental policy. It has become an important issue to study how to implement the green credit policy and to evaluate its effect. From the perspective of environmental regulation, this paper attempts to construct a comprehensive score of commercial banks' competence by factor analysis, and constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on “Green Credit Guidelines” published in 2012 and uses Differences-in-Differences (DID) to test the impact of green credit implementation on commercial banks' core competence. The results show that green credit has a significant effect on the overall bank competence. Among them, the promotion effect of urban and rural commercial banks is higher than the industry average, and the promotion effect has weakened in the years after the policy was announced. Furthermore, from the dual perspectives of credit risk and reputation risk, the Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference (DDD) is used to test the impact mechanism of green credit on the core competence of banks. The results show that, compared with banks with lower credit risk and reputation risk, banks with higher credit risk and reputation risk experience greater enhancement in core competence by green credit.","wordCount":191,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Sumei Luo","YU Shenghui","Guangyou Zhou"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105335","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f4dd60dfd64039bc","title":"Externality and <scp>COVID</scp>‐19","abstract":"Negative infectious disease externalities are less prevalent in the absence of government intervention and less costly to society than is often supposed. That is so for three reasons. (1) Unlike externality-creating behaviors in many classical externality contexts, such behaviors are often self-limiting in the context of infectious disease. (2) In market economies, behaviors that may create infectious disease externalities typically occur at sites that are owned privately and visited voluntarily. Owners have powerful incentives to regulate such behaviors at their sites, and visitors face residual infection risk contractually. (3) The social cost of infectious disease externalities is limited by the cheapest method of avoiding externalized infection risk. That cost is modest compared to the one usually imagined: the value of life (or health) lost to the disease if government does not intervene. We elaborate these arguments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Peter T. Leeson","Louis Rouanet"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12497","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f4ee6dd522eeb94d","title":"On the Limitations of Some Current Usages of the Gini Index","abstract":"This note constructs a simple two class example in which the Gini index is held constant while the size of the rich and poor populations change, in order to illustrate how very different societies can have the same Gini index and produce very similar estimates of standard inequality averse Social Welfare Functions. The rich/poor income ratio can vary by a factor of over 12, and the income share of the top one per cent can vary by a factor of over 16, with exactly the same Gini index. Focussing solely on the Gini index can thus obscure perceptions—e.g. of important market income trends or large changes in the redistributive impact of the tax and transfer system. Hence, analysts should supplement the use of an aggregate summary index of inequality with direct examination of the segments of the income distribution which they think are of greatest importance.","wordCount":146,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Lars Osberg"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12256","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f4f00b87b1782cbf","title":"The impact of working conditions on mental health: Novel evidence from the UK","abstract":"This paper investigates the causal impact of working conditions on mental health in the UK, combining new longitudinal data on working conditions from the European Working Conditions Survey with microdata from the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (Understanding Society). Our empirical strategy accounts for the endogenous sorting of individuals into occupations by including individual fixed effects. We address the potential endogeneity of occupational change over time by focusing only on individuals who remain in the same occupation (ISCO 3-digit), exploiting the variation in working conditions within each occupation over time. This variation, determined primarily by general macroeconomic conditions, is likely to be exogenous from the individual point of view. Our results indicate that, for female workers, improvements in working conditions such as skills and discretion, working time quality, and work intensity improve mental health outcomes such as loss of confidence, anxiety, social dysfunction, and risk of clinical depression. These effects are clinically relevant and substantial for younger and older female workers and larger for workers in occupations characterised by an inherently higher level of job strain. We detail how different dimensions of job quality impact different mental health outcomes for different age groups. Our results have important implications for public policies and firms which aim to improve workers’ wellbeing and productivity through workplace interventions focused on mental health.","wordCount":217,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Michele Belloni","Ludovico Carrino","Elena Meschi"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102176","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f4f0ba712827b925","title":"Endogenous group formation and responsibility diffusion: An experimental study","abstract":"We study the effects of varying individual pivotality and endogenous group entry on the selfishness of group decisions. Selfish choices by groups are often linked to the possibility of diffusing responsibility; the moral costs of these decisions appear smaller when individual pivotality is reduced. Our experimental design explores unanimity voting under distinct defaults to identify this effect. In exogenously formed groups we find evidence of responsibility diffusion, but this diminishes with repetition. Our results also demonstrate the role of self-selection in generating differences in group behaviour depending on individual pivotality. Driven by a heterogeneous selection pattern, endogenous group formation amplifies the effects of a change in pivotality. Some people actively seek an environment to diffuse responsibility, while others join groups to promote pro-social behaviour.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Katharina Brütt","Arthur Schram","Joep Sonnemans"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2020.02.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f4fb5fd48ee08a16","title":"Social motives vs social influence: An experiment on interdependent time preferences","abstract":"We design an intertemporal Dictator Game to test whether Dictators modify their discounting behavior when their own decision is imposed on their matched Recipients. We run four different treatments to identify the effect of payoffs externalities from those related to information and beliefs. Our descriptive statistics show that Dictators display a marked propensity to account for the intertemporal preferences of Recipients, both in the presence of externalities (social motives) and/or when they know about the decisions of their matched partners (social influence). We also perform a structural estimation exercise to control for heterogeneity in risk attitudes. As for individual behavior, our estimates confirm previous studies in that high risk aversion is associated with low discounting. As for social behavior, we find that social motives outweigh social influence, especially when we restrict our sample to pairs of Dictators and Recipients who satisfy minimal consistency conditions.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Ismael Rodríguez-Lara","Giovanni Ponti"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2017.06.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f501c125bd8e37e1","title":"Natural disasters, investor sentiments and stock market reactions: Evidence from Turkey–Syria earthquakes","abstract":"This study provides stylised facts on the relationships between natural disasters, investor sentiments and market performance using the recent Turkey–Syria earthquakes. We employ daily stock market data relating to Turkey’s 21 major trading partners and find significant negative impact of the disaster on the sampled countries’ stock market returns, particularly for countries near Turkey.","wordCount":54,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Rilwan Sakariyahu","Rodiat Lawal","Ọláyínká Oyèkọ́lá","Oluwatoyin Esther Dosumu","Rasheed A. Adigun"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111153","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f503aa272ba6d497","title":"Risk-taking and others","abstract":"Real-life risk decisions are taken in a social context. However, we still know little about how that affects risk decisions. We have experimentally investigated the effect of social comparison on risk taking. We designed an experiment that allows us to isolate social comparison from other channels whereby the social context can affect risk decisions. The design also allows us to find impacts of the social reference point both if the individual cares about the distance to the social reference point and if she cares about her rank. Thus, we compare risk-taking in isolation to risk-taking with various exogenously imposed social reference points. We find that risk-taking is affected by the desire to get ahead of others, both when the social reference point is within reach (rank can be affected) and when it is out of reach (rank cannot be affected). Our results suggest that people do not only care about rank but also care about the distance to the social reference point.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Annika Lindskog","Peter Martinsson","Haileselassie Medhin"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09376-x","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f5059888ae32720b","title":"Tail risk connectedness in the refined petroleum market: A first look at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic","abstract":"This study provides a novel framework for analysing systematic tail risk transmission mechanisms by combining the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CAViaR) model with the recently developed Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) based connectedness approach. We estimate dynamic spillovers across two crude oil (Brent and WTI) and four refined petroleum product (gasoline, heating oil, jet fuel and propane) prices from January, 17, 1997 to December 11, 2020. Results show that, both heating oil and kerosene are persistent net transmitters of shocks, signifying the important role of liquidity in the relevant markets. In addition, the role of either crude oil type appears to shift around 2009 following developments in the energy market. Overall, our findings suggest that, total connectedness are positively affected by major crisis episodes and that the recent COVID-19 pandemic appears to have the potential to propel both tail risk and exposure to losses to levels akin to those of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Ioannis Chatziantoniou","David Gabauer","Fernando Pérez de Gracia"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106051","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f51a434cc6155973","title":"Measuring Corporate Culture Using Machine Learning","abstract":"We create a culture dictionary using one of the latest machine learning techniques—the word embedding model—and 209,480 earnings call transcripts. We score the five corporate cultural values of innovation, integrity, quality, respect, and teamwork for 62,664 firm-year observations over the period 2001–2018. We show that an innovative culture is broader than the usual measures of corporate innovation – R&D expenses and the number of patents. Moreover, we show that corporate culture correlates with business outcomes, including operational efficiency, risk-taking, earnings management, executive compensation design, firm value, and deal making, and that the culture-performance link is more pronounced in bad times. Finally, we present suggestive evidence that corporate culture is shaped by major corporate events, such as mergers and acquisitions.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Kai Li","Feng Mai","Rui Shen","Xinyan Yan"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa079","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5233ad39cbacbda","title":"Social discounting, inequality aversion, and the environment","abstract":"Measures of inequality aversion are elicited using hypothetical decision tasks. The tasks require an assessment of projects in the presence of environmental inequalities across space and time. We also test the effect of different environmental domains (air pollution, recreational forest and soil fertility) and contextual framings (gain/loss, within/between regions and present–future/past–present inter-temporal trade-offs). Estimated mean inequality aversion is higher in the intra-temporal framing (an elasticity of 2.9), than in the inter-temporal framing with either negative (2.0) or positive (1.4) growth in environmental quality. Differences across environmental domains exist but are less pronounced. Similar results hold for pure time preference. Losses are associated with a lower pure rate of time preference but higher inequality aversion compared to gains. The results indicate how domain-specific ‘dual’ discount rates or rather changing relative shadow prices for the environment might be calibrated. Yet, seen as an exercise in empirical social choice, the context dependent results reject the classical Utilitarian formulation of a single Ramsey Rule.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Frank Venmans","Ben Groom"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102479","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f527438fc84c4edd","title":"Gaming and strategic opacity in incentive provision","abstract":"We study the benefits and costs of “opacity” (deliberate lack of transparency) of incentive schemes as a strategy to combat gaming by better informed agents. In a two‐task moral hazard model in which only the agent knows which task is less costly, the agent has an incentive to focus his effort on the less costly task. Opaque schemes, which make a risk‐averse agent uncertain about which task will be more highly rewarded, mitigate such gaming but impose more risk. We identify environments in which opaque schemes not only dominate transparent ones, but also eliminate the costs of the agent's hidden information.","wordCount":101,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Florian Ederer","Richard Holden","Margaret Meyer"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12253","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f52788c89cc7ac86","title":"Lazy Prices","abstract":"Using the complete history of regular quarterly and annual filings by U.S. corporations, we show that changes to the language and construction of financial reports have strong implications for firms’ future returns and operations. A portfolio that shorts “changers” and buys “nonchangers” earns up to 188 basis points per month in alpha (over 22% per year) in the future. Moreover, changes to 10‐Ks predict future earnings, profitability, future news announcements, and even future firm‐level bankruptcies. Unlike typical underreaction patterns, we find no announcement effect, suggesting that investors are inattentive to these simple changes across the universe of public firms.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Lauren Cohen","Christopher J. Malloy","Quoc Hung Nguyen"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12885","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f527dc418a4e65a5","title":"Determinants of revenue in sports leagues: An empirical assessment","abstract":"This study investigates determinants of revenue in North America's four major professional sports leagues. Revenue is positively associated with on‐field success in baseball (MLB), basketball (NBA), and hockey (NHL), but not in football (NFL). The returns to success are not diminishing as commonly assumed, which casts doubt on the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, and differences across leagues are consistent with revenue sharing arrangements. Estimates indicate a strong negative but diminishing relationship between stadium age and revenue. Teams in larger markets generate more revenue than smaller markets, but the returns to success do not differ according to market size.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["John Charles Bradbury"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12710","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f535ba83fd0355a1","title":"Asset pricing with neural networks: Significance tests","abstract":"This study proposes a novel hypothesis test for evaluating the statistical significance of input variables in multi-layer perceptron (MLP) regression models. Theoretical foundations are established through consistency results and estimation rate analysis using the sieves method. To validate the test’s performance in complex and realistic settings, an extensive Monte Carlo simulation is conducted. Results of the simulation reveal that the test has a high power and low rate of false positives, making it a powerful tool for detecting true effects in data. The test is further applied to identify the most influential predictors of equity risk premiums, with results indicating that only a small number of characteristics have statistical significance and all macroeconomic predictors are insignificant at the 1% level. These findings are consistent across a variety of neural network architectures.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Hasan Fallahgoul","Vincentius Franstianto","Xin Lin"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105574","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f545c5ff45262dac","title":"Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis","abstract":"Using data on bank-firm relationships in Italy during the Eurozone financial crisis, we show that: (i) compared to healthy banks, under-capitalised banks cut credit to healthy but not to zombie firms and are more likely to prolong a credit relationship with a zombie; (ii) in area sectors with more low-capital banks, zombies are more likely to survive; (iii) bank under-capitalisation does not hurt the growth rate of healthy firms. We provide evidence that extending credit to the weakest firms during the recession mitigated the disruption of supply chains and adverse local demand externalities.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Fabiano Schivardi","Enrico Sette","Guido Tabellini"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab039","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f55a704247c78be3","title":"Jump tail risk exposure and the cross-section of stock returns","abstract":"We introduce a new jump tail risk measure retrieved from option prices. We examine the cross-sectional pricing of stocks according to their sensitivities to jump tail risk. We find a negative market price of jump tail risk. A high-low portfolio sorted by jump tail risk betas delivers a statistically and economically significant negative premium of -9.95% per year. Risk-adjusted returns are also negative and highly significant. We document that the negative jump tail risk premium is mainly driven by its downside jump tail risk component. On the contrary, the premium of the high-low portfolio sorted by upside jump tail risk betas is insignificant. The negative premium of downside jump tail risk is significant when controlling for various risk factor loadings and firm characteristics, and remains strong for large firms. Our results carry over to a predictive setting, in which we compare subsequent realized returns of the quintile portfolios sorted by downside jump tail risk betas estimated over the previous period.","wordCount":160,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Lykourgos Alexiou","Leonidas Rompolis"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101565","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f5668347c98cd9c7","title":"Policies to reduce and prevent homelessness: What we know and gaps in the research","abstract":"Homelessness may be both a cause of and one of the more extreme outcomes of poverty. Governments at all levels and private organizations have a variety of tools to combat homelessness, and these strategies have changed dramatically over the past quarter century. In this paper, we catalog the policy responses and the existing literature on the effectiveness of these strategies, focusing on studies of individual‐level effects from randomized controlled trial evaluations and the best quasi‐experimental designs. We conclude by discussing outstanding questions that can be addressed with these same methods.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["William N. Evans","David C. Phillips","Krista Ruffini"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22283","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f57316a68da6b441","title":"The impact of pension reform on employment, retirement, and disability insurance claims","abstract":"We evaluate the 2011 comprehensive reform of Norwegian early retirement institutions using a parsimonious random utility choice model. Conditional on employment at age 60, we estimate a three-state conditional logit model to explain the realized labor market state at age 63 among the alternatives of employment, retirement, and disability program participation. The reform radically changed work incentives and/or pension access age for some (but not all) workers, such that the influence of economic incentives can be identified based on reform-generated variation only. We find that improved work incentives caused employment rates to rise considerably at the expense of early retirement and exit through disability insurance. Improved liquidity through a lower age to access own pension funds on actuarially neutral terms caused a small increase in employment and a large drop in disability program participation. Properly designed pension reforms thus need to take the interplay between old-age pension and disability insurance programs into account.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Erik Hernæs","Simen Markussen","John Piggott","Knut Røed"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-01052-5","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f57c0326a8620dfb","title":"Property Rights to Land and Agricultural Organization: An Argentina–United States Comparison","abstract":"The contributions of Harold Demsetz offer key insights on how property rights and transaction costs shape economic organization. These guide our comparison of agricultural organization in the early 20th century in two comparable regions, the Argentine Pampas and the US Midwest. In the United States, land was distributed in small parcels and actively traded. In the Pampas, land was distributed in large plots, and trade was limited because land was a social and political asset, as well as a commercial one. We analyze why the absence of trade led to persistently larger farms, specialization in ranching, and peculiar tenancy contracts in Argentina relative to the United States. Our empirical analysis, based on county-level data for both regions, shows that geoclimatic factors cannot explain the observed differences in agricultural organization. We discuss implications for long-term economic development in Argentina.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Eric C. Edwards","Martín Fiszbein","Gary D. Libecap"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719197","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f58112e0144d847c","title":"Green economy, degradation narratives, and land-use conflicts in Tanzania","abstract":"The implementation of the green economy in Tanzania is currently re-arranging space in significant ways. The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) has been presented by the government as well as investors and aid donors as a model for the green economy in Africa combining investments in large-scale farming with environmental conservation. The Kilombero valley is centrally situated within SAGCOT and has become a national hotspot of land-use conflicts. The valley is dominated by an expanding sector of agricultural capital investments combined with a substantial increase in areas under environmental conservation. While some smallholder farmers are dispossessed through these expansions, others are contracted as outgrowers. Pastoralists are, however, only in the way, and are also thought to cause widespread environmental degradation. This is a long-held view, which also plays a key role in the implementation of SAGCOT. It has led to a series of pastoral evictions in the country. In 2012, ‘Operation Save Kilombero’ was implemented consisting of violent evictions of all pastoralists from the valley. This eviction had been planned to conserve the wetland ecosystem that was seen by the government and aid donors to be threatened by pastoral overstocking. The arrival of the green economy in Kilombero re-enforced the perceived need to clear the valley of livestock and pastoralists to conserve the environment and make space for investments in agriculture. The pastoral eviction in Kilombero in 2012 was also only one in a series; every eviction leading to the spill-over of pastoralists to other areas creating new farmer-herder conflicts as well as conservation conflicts. While land-use conflicts in Africa are commonly thought to be caused by natural resource scarcity and environmental degradation mainly resulting from population growth, we demonstrate how degradation narratives may themselves be a key driver of conflicts, in this case to legitimize and pave the way for agricultural investments and environmental conservation under a ‘green economy’.","wordCount":312,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Mikael Bergius","Tor A. Benjaminsen","Faustin Maganga","Halvard Buhaug"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104850","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f581e6c134cba086","title":"The effects of macroeconomic conditions at graduation on overeducation","abstract":"This article shows that unfavorable economic conditions at graduation decrease the likelihood of a good job‐worker match over a worker's subsequent career. Mismatch is quantified in terms of overeducation by both industry and occupation. The German Socio‐Economic Panel and region‐level unemployment rates from 1994 to 2012 are used. Instrumental variables estimates account for endogenous graduation timing. A single percentage point increase in regional unemployment causes an increase in the probability of overeducation of 1.6–1.7 percentage points for university graduates. Effects for technical tertiary education and apprenticeship graduates are smaller. Labor market entry conditions affect workers for up to 9 years after graduation.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Fraser Summerfield","Ioannis Theodossiou"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12446","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f58f46d17fdfc504","title":"Austerity and distributional policy","abstract":"How does fiscal austerity affect redistributive policies? We document that during austerity episodes, countries tend to increase marginal income tax rates on top earners, but not on average earners. We then show that, in response to an exogenously imposed fiscal rule, Italian municipalities increase local non-linear income taxes progressively. They do not adjust other fiscal policies. College-educated mayors are more likely than less educated mayors to implement progressive reforms, and they perform better in the upcoming election. Survey evidence suggests that the differential policy response can be explained by college-educated mayors being more informed about the available policy options.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Matteo Alpino","Zareh Asatryan","Sebastian Blesse","Nils Wehrhöfer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.07.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f592d14fed38d4af","title":"Contractual frictions and margins of trade","abstract":"A recent body of work has shown that quality of national institutions that enforce written contracts plays an important role in shaping a country’s comparative advantage. The current paper contributes to this literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms through which institutional frictions affect the pattern of aggregate trade flow by distinguishing its effect on the intensive and extensive margins. We find that better contracting institutions not only increase the probability of exporting (the extensive margin) but also enhance the export sales after entry (the intensive margin), particularly in industries where relationship-specific investments are most important. With around two-third to three-fourth share (depending on the definition used), the contribution of institutions along the intensive margin dominates that along the extensive margin. The benefits of improved institutions, particularly via the intensive margin, favor the less developed countries over the more developed ones. In addition, better contracting institutions increase the probability of survival of export products in more contract-intensive industries in particular. These findings are robust to measuring the intensive and extensive margins using a more granular export data based on firm-level aggregates, as well as the variety and destination based definitions.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Théophile T. Azomahou","Hibret Maemir","Hassen Wako"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2021.04.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f592f5b1368a59ee","title":"Spillover effect of Japanese long-term care insurance as an employment promotion policy for family caregivers","abstract":"We evaluate a spillover effect of the Japanese public long-term care insurance (LTCI) as a policy to stimulate family caregivers' labor force participation. Using nationally representative data from 1995 to 2013, we apply difference-in-difference propensity score matching to investigate the spillover effect in two periods: before and after the introduction of the LTCI in 2000 and before and after its major amendment in 2006. Our results show that the LTCI introduction has significant and positive spillover effects on family caregivers' labor force participation and the effects vary by gender and age. In contrast, the LTCI amendment is found to have generally negative spillover effects on their labor force participation. We draw attention to these spillover effects, as expanding labor market supply to sustain the economy would be a priority for Japan and other rapidly aging countries in the coming decades.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Health Economics","authors":["Rong Fu","Haruko Noguchi","Akira Kawamura","Hideto Takahashi","Nanako Tamiya"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.09.011","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f59567da56028d69","title":"Social trust and patterns of growth","abstract":"The association between social trust and long‐run economic growth is well documented. However, which determinants of growth are affected by social trust remains an open question. This paper therefore explores to which extent social trust affects the rate of factor accumulation versus productivity improvements. Previous studies indicate that social trust could affect both the accumulation of physical and human capital and the rate of productivity increases. Existing literature also indicates that part of the growth effects may be due to how trust affects the quality of formal institutions. The effects of trust are estimated in a panel of 64 countries observed in 5‐year periods between 1977 and 2017, using growth accounting to separate patterns of growth. The results unequivocally show that social trust predominantly affects long‐run growth by affecting the growth of productivity and that only a small share of that effect runs through the effects of trust on formal institutions.","wordCount":151,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Christian Bjørnskov"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12590","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f59741f561d6b7d4","title":"Is Taxing Waste a Waste of Time? Evidence from a Supreme Court Decision","abstract":"Environmental taxes are often underexploited. This paper analyses the effectiveness of a garbage tax, assessing its effects on multiple outcomes as well as its acceptability. We study how a Supreme Court decision, mandating the Swiss Canton of Vaud to implement a tax on garbage, affects garbage production and beliefs about the tax. We adopt a difference-in-differences approach exploiting that parts of Vaud already implemented a garbage tax before the mandate. Pricing garbage by the bag (PGB) is highly effective, reducing unsorted garbage by 40%, increasing recycling of aluminium and organic waste, without causing negative spillovers on adjacent regions. The effects of PGB seem very persistent over time. Our assessment of PGB looks very favourable. It may surprise that PGB is not implemented more often. Hence, we look at people's perceptions. We find that people are very concerned with PGB ex ante. Public opposition seems to be the main obstacle to PGB. However, implementing PGB reduces concerns with effectiveness and fairness substantially. After implementing PGB, people accept 70% higher garbage taxes compared to before PGB. We argue that environmental taxes could be much more diffused, if people had the chance to experience their functioning and correct their beliefs","wordCount":197,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Stefano Carattini","Andrea Baranzini","Rafael Lalive"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.02.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f59fb514c9089829","title":"What Interventions Work Best for Families Who Experience Homelessness? Impact Estimates from the Family Options Study","abstract":"What housing and service interventions work best to reduce homelessness for families in the United States? The Family Options Study randomly assigned 2,282 families recruited in homeless shelters across 12 sites to priority access to one of three active interventions or to usual care in their communities. The interventions were long-term rent subsidies, short-term rent subsidies, and transitional housing in supervised programs with intensive psychosocial services. In two waves of follow-up data collected 20and 37 months later, priority access to long-term rent subsidies reduced homelessness sand food insecurity and improved other aspects of adult and child well-being relative to usual care, at a cost 9 percent higher. The other interventions had little effect. The study provides support for the view that homelessness for most families is an economic problem that long-term rent subsidies resolve and does not support the view that families must address psychosocial problems to succeed in housing. It has implications for focusing government resources on this important social problem.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Daniel Gubits","Marybeth Shinn","Michelle Wood","Scott R. Brown","Samuel Dastrup","Stephen H. Bell"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22071","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5ba2abcccabaa9c","title":"Deprivation of Women and Men Living in a Couple: Sharing or Unequal Division?","abstract":"In standard poverty analyses, all household members are assumed to share equal living conditions. Though a few national studies exist, this paper is the first to present empirical evidence on this issue for the EU, using the 2015 wave of the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. We map the extent of intra‐couple inequality in deprivation, and analyze its determinants. We find that for most items, the gender difference in lack between partners, though generally small, is significant and at the disadvantage of women. When aggregating the individual items into a deprivation scale, couples where the number of enforced lacks is higher for the woman (9.2 percent) are (significantly) more numerous than couples where the man is disadvantaged (6.5 percent), at the EU level. Econometric analysis shows that the work status of the partners and their relative contribution to the joint income are important determinants of the intra‐couple gender deprivation gap.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Anne-Cathérine Guio","Karel Van den Bosch"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12449","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5bec6a1ad040759","title":"Institutional integration and productivity growth: Evidence from the 1995 enlargement of the European Union","abstract":"This paper studies the productivity effects of integration deepening. The identification strategy exploits the 1995 European Union (EU) enlargement, when all candidate countries joined the Single Market but one — Norway — did not join the EU. Our synthetic difference-in-differences estimates on sectoral and regional data suggest had Norway chosen deeper integration, the average Norwegian region would have experienced an increase in yearly productivity growth of about 0.6 percentage points. This method also helps determining the sources of heterogeneity, apparently inherent to integration, highlighting higher costs of the missed deeper integration for more peripheral regions and industrial sector.","wordCount":98,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Nauro F. Campos","Fabrizio Coricelli","Emanuele Franceschi"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.104014","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f5bee93d486f34f2","title":"Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?","abstract":"This paper examines the Taylor rule in five emerging economies, namely Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. In particular, it investigates whether monetary policy in these countries can be more accurately described by (i) an augmented rule including the exchange rate, as well as (ii) a nonlinear threshold specification (estimated using GMM), instead of a baseline linear rule. The results suggest that the reaction of monetary authorities to deviations from target of either the inflation or the output gap differs in terms of the size and/or statistical significance of the coefficients in the high and low inflation regimes in all countries. In particular, the exchange rate has an impact in the former but not in the latter regime. Overall, an augmented nonlinear Taylor rule appears to capture more accurately the behaviour of monetary authorities in these countries.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Guglielmo Maria Caporale","Mohamad Husam Helmi","Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık","Faek Menla Ali","Coşkun Akdeni̇z"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.02.006","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f5c714887278909c","title":"Providing Advice to Jobseekers at Low Cost: An Experimental Study on Online Advice","abstract":"We develop and evaluate experimentally a novel tool that redesigns the job search process by providing tailored advice at low cost. We invited jobseekers to our computer facilities for twelve consecutive weekly sessions to search for real jobs on our web interface. For one-half, instead of relying on their own search criteria, we use readily available labour market data to display relevant alternative occupations and associated jobs. The data indicate that this broadens the set of jobs they consider and increases their job interviews especially for participants who otherwise search narrowly and have been unemployed for a few months.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Michèle Bélot","Philipp Kircher","Paul J. Müller"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy059","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f5c967c40216fe72","title":"Depreciation of Business R&D Capital","abstract":"We develop a forward‐looking profit model to estimate the depreciation rates of business R&D capital. By using U.S. government data between 1987 and 2007, and the newly developed model, we estimate both constant and time‐varying industry‐specific R&D depreciation rates. The results comprise a set of R&D depreciation rates for major U.S. high‐tech industries. They align with the main conclusions from recent studies that the rates are in general higher than the traditionally assumed 15 percent and vary across industries. The relative ranking of the constant R&D depreciation rates among industries is consistent with industry observations and the industry‐specific time‐varying rates are informative about the dynamics of technological change and the levels of competition across industries. Lastly, we also present a cross‐country comparison of the R&D depreciation rates between the U.S. and Japan, and find that the results reflect the relative technological competitiveness in key industries.","wordCount":145,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Wendy C.Y. Li","Bronwyn H. Hall"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12380","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5d31c378d3d9f00","title":"Does women’s time in domestic work and agriculture affect women’s and children’s dietary diversity? Evidence from Bangladesh, Nepal, Cambodia, Ghana, and Mozambique","abstract":"There are concerns that increasing women’s engagement in agriculture could negatively affect nutrition by limiting the time available for nutrition-improving reproductive work. However, very few empirical studies provide evidence to support these concerns. This paper examines the relationship between women’s time spent in domestic work and agriculture and women’s and children’s dietary diversity. Using data from Bangladesh, Nepal, Cambodia, Ghana, and Mozambique, we find that women’s domestic work and cooking time are positively correlated with more diverse diets. We also find differential effects depending on asset poverty status. In Mozambique, working long hours in agriculture is negatively associated with women’s dietary diversity score in nonpoor women, but is positively associated with poor women’s dietary diversity and poor children’s minimum acceptable diet. This suggests that agriculture as a source of food and income is particularly important for the asset poor. Our results reveal that women’s time allocation and nutrition responses to agricultural interventions are likely to vary by socioeconomic status and local context.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Hitomi Komatsu","Hazel Malapit","Sophie Theis"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.07.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f5de2ad7db2b21d6","title":"On the inefficiency of non‐competes in low‐wage labour markets","abstract":"We study the efficiency of non‐compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labour turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover and average wages for low‐wage workers. The model also predicts that, by reducing turnover, NCAs raise recruitment and employment. We show that optimal NCA policy: (i) is characterized by a Hosios‐like condition that balances the benefits of higher employment against the costs of inefficient congestion and poaching; (ii) depends critically on the minimum wage; and (iii) alone cannot always achieve the constrained‐efficient allocation—a result that also holds for optimal minimum wage policy—yet with both policies, efficiency is always attainable. To guide policymakers, we derive a sufficient statistic in the form of an easily computed employment threshold above which NCAs are necessarily inefficiently restrictive, and show that employment levels in current low‐wage US labour markets typically exceed this threshold. Finally, we calibrate the model and show that Oregon's 2008 NCA ban for low‐wage workers increased welfare modestly (by roughly 0.1%), and that if policymakers had also raised the minimum wage to its optimal level conditional on the enacted NCA ban (a 30% increase), then welfare would have increased more substantially—by over 1%.","wordCount":198,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Tristan Potter","Bart Hobijn","André Kurmann"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12514","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5de334bbdee3562","title":"Executive Lawyers: Gatekeepers or Strategic Officers?","abstract":"Lawyers now serve as executives in 44 percent of corporations. Although endowed with gatekeeping responsibilities, executive lawyers face increasing pressure to spend time on strategic efforts. In a fixed-effects model, we quantify that lawyers are half as important as chief executive officers in explaining variances in compliance, monitoring, and business development. In a difference-in-differences model, we find that hiring lawyers as executives is associated with a 50 percent reduction in compliance breaches and a 32 percent reduction in monitoring breaches. We ask if optimal contracting of lawyers into strategic activities implies less gatekeeping effort. Comparing executive lawyers hired from law firms to lawyers poached from corporations, we find that lawyers hired with high compensation delta (indicative of the importance of strategic goals in compensation contracts) do less monitoring, which prevents 25 percent fewer breaches than are typically mitigated by having an executive gatekeeper. Reassuringly, lawyers do not compromise compliance.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Adair Morse","Wei Wang","Serena Wu"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","K","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691359","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5ef2e7e9e237a76","title":"Local Protectionism, Market Structure, and Social Welfare: China’s Automobile Market","abstract":"This study documents the presence of local protectionism and quantifies its impacts on market competition and social welfare in the context of China’s automobile market. A salient feature of China’s auto market is that vehicle models by joint ventures and state-owned enterprises command much higher market shares in their headquarter provinces than at the national level. Through county border analysis, falsification tests, and a consumer survey, we uncover protectionist policies such as subsidies to local brands as the primary contributing factor to the observed home bias. We then set up and estimate a market equilibrium model to quantify the impact of local protection, controlling for other demand and supply factors. Counterfactual analysis shows that local protection leads to significant consumer choice distortions and results in 21.9 billion yuan of consumer welfare loss, amounting to 41 percent of total subsidy. Provincial governments face a prisoner’s dilemma: local protection reduces aggregate social welfare, but provincial governments have no incentive to unilaterally remove local protection.","wordCount":162,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Panle Jia Barwick","Shengmao Cao","Shanjun Li"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180513","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5f09d55745e8295","title":"The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk","abstract":"This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of sovereign risk in a model in which banks hold domestic government debt. News of a future sovereign default hampers financial intermediation. First, it tightens the funding constraints of banks, reducing their resources to finance firms (liquidity channel). Second, it generates a precautionary motive to deleverage (risk channel). I estimate the model using Italian data, finding that sovereign risk was recessionary and that the risk channel was sizable. I also use the model to measure the effects of subsidized long-term loans to banks. Precautionary motives at the height of the crisis imply that bank lending to firms responds little to these interventions.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Luigi Bocola"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/686734","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5f3c502de7fd607","title":"Inter‐communal institutions in medieval trade","abstract":"This article examines the institutional structure of medieval overseas trade to explain why trade thrived even in the absence of the state. The literature has dealt mainly with intra‐coalition or intra‐community relations. However, the literature does not answer the question of how institutions could be created that could support interaction between a large number of distant communities and between merchants who did not necessarily know one another. This article presents such an institution that prevailed in the Baltic Sea region in the late middle ages, referred to here as the inter‐communal conciliation mechanism. In case of a dispute, conciliation took place between town councils, rather than the merchants involved in the dispute, thus combining individual liability and communal enforcement. Exploration of the documents reveals a task‐specific regularity of behaviour, which was the general practice among merchants to turn to the council of their own community when they had problems in a foreign town, instead of being obliged to solve disputes by themselves. This institution provided a permanent, centralized, and relatively impartial enforcement mechanism to respond to breaches. It was therefore well adapted to large, at least partially anonymous markets, such as the Baltic Sea region, with dozens of towns and thousands of merchants.","wordCount":203,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Mika Kallioinen"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12472","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f5fd6066ee02c95c","title":"Managers' cultural origin and corporate response to an economic shock","abstract":"We exploit the exogenous Covid-19 shock in a bicultural area of Italy to identify cultural differences in the way companies respond to economic shocks. Firms with managers of diverse cultural backgrounds resort to different forms of government aid, diverge in their investment decisions, and have different growth rates. These findings are consistent with cultural differences in time preferences and debt aversion. Specifically, we find that the response of managers belonging to a more long-term oriented culture is characterized by a lower recourse to debt, more investments and higher growth rates. Overall, our results show that the cultural origin of managers significantly affects firms' reaction to economic shocks and real economic outcomes.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Mascia Bedendo","Emilia García-Appendini","Linus Siming"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102412","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f604afd2dc221d4f","title":"On the psychology of the relation between optimism and risk taking","abstract":"In this paper, we provide an explanation for why risk taking is related to optimism. Using a laboratory experiment, we show that the degree of optimism predicts whether people tend to focus on the positive or negative outcomes of risky decisions. While optimists tend to focus on the good outcomes, pessimists focus on the bad outcomes of risk. The tendency to focus on good or bad outcomes of risk in turn affects both the self-reported willingness to take risk and actual risk taking behavior. This suggests that dispositional optimism may affect risk taking mainly by shifting attention to specific outcomes rather than causing misperception of probabilities. In a second study we find evidence that dispositional optimism is related to elicited parameters of rank dependent utility theory suggesting that focusing may be among the psychological determinants of decision weights. Finally, we corroborate our findings with process data related to focusing showing that optimists tend to remember more and attend more to good outcomes and this in turn affects their risk taking.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Thomas Dohmen","Simone Quercia","Jana Willrodt"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-023-09409-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f60b6ef5b3a2f3b7","title":"Trump’s tariffs: Unpacking the EU’s market reaction","abstract":"EU equity markets’ vulnerability to U.S. trade policy shocks. This paper explores the effect of 26 February 2025 Trumps’ tariffs announcement against Europe. As a mean of event-study analysis, we find that the announcement led to a reduction of firms’ abnormal return (AR), raw return and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) listed on the EU STOXX 600, and that its effect changes according to firms’ operating industry and size. Our results confirm the EU market dependence from US policies, warning about its vulnerability.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Stefano Piserà","Andrea Paltrinieri","Simona Galletta","Flavio Pichler"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112380","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f619999b75b5c80d","title":"Quantum decision theory augments rank-dependent expected utility and Cumulative Prospect Theory","abstract":"Using experimental data on choices between pairs of lotteries, we compare a new parameterized Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) with Rank Dependent Utility Theory (RDU) and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). At the aggregate level, CPT-based QDT outperforms. At the individual level, the considerable heterogeneity across subjects is best described by the RDU-based QDT, at odds with the conclusion using the representative agent approach. The quantum attraction factor thus plays a key role in describing subjects’ behaviors at both levels. A large fraction of subjects exhibit temporal stability of asset integration attitudes. Another significant fraction of subjects are diagnosed to be using mixtures of mental models, which are elicited selectively depending on the nature of the presented choice alternatives.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Giuseppe M. Ferro","Tatyana Kovalenko","Didier Sornette"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102417","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f62aab2c98f05ad6","title":"Momentum crashes","abstract":"Despite their strong positive average returns across numerous asset classes, momentum strategies can experience infrequent and persistent strings of negative returns. These momentum crashes are partly forecastable. They occur in panic states, following market declines and when market volatility is high, and are contemporaneous with market rebounds. The low ex ante expected returns in panic states are consistent with a conditionally high premium attached to the option like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of momentum’s mean and variance approximately doubles the alpha and Sharpe ratio of a static momentum strategy and is not explained by other factors. These results are robust across multiple time periods, international equity markets, and other asset classes.","wordCount":119,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Kent Daniel","Tobias J. Moskowitz"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.12.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f630e03ce56574a0","title":"The air quality and well-being effects of low emission zones","abstract":"This study provides the first evidence of the subjective well-being impacts of low emission zones (LEZs) while also undertaking a comprehensive analysis of their air quality effects. We identify causal impacts by exploiting the zones’ introduction date with difference-in-differences designs robust to staggered implementations and time-varying treatment effects. Results show air quality improvements through reductions in traffic-related pollutants despite ground-level ozone increases and harmful spatial pollution spillovers. We further find that the zones cause transitory yet long-lasting reductions in individuals’ life satisfaction despite health benefits, suggesting that the subjective well-being effects of restricting mobility potentially outweigh those of improved health.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Luis Sarmiento","Nicole Wägner","Aleksandar Zaklan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.105014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f63972ebce141eec","title":"Review: Taking stock of Africa’s second-generation agricultural input subsidy programs","abstract":"Input subsidy programs (ISPs) remain one of the most contentiously debated development issues in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). After ISPs were phased out during the 1980s and 1990s, the landscape has changed profoundly since the early 2000s. By 2010, at least 10 African governments initiated a new wave of subsidy programs that were designed to overcome past performance challenges. This study provides the most comprehensive review of recent evidence to date regarding the performance of these second generation ISPs, synthesizing nearly 80 ISP-related studies from seven countries (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, and Ethiopia). We specifically evaluate ISP impacts on total fertilizer use, food production, commercial input distribution systems, food prices, wages, and poverty. We also consider measures that could enable ISPs to more cost-effectively achieve their objectives. We find that ISPs can quickly raise national food production, and that receiving subsidized inputs raises beneficiary households’ grain yields and production levels at least in the short-term. However, the overall production and welfare effects of subsidy programs tend to be smaller than expected. Two characteristics of program implementation consistently mitigate the intended effects of ISPs: (1) subsidy programs partially crowd out commercial fertilizer demand due to difficulties associated with targeting and sale of inputs by program implementers, and (2) lower than expected crop yield response to fertilizer on smallholder-managed fields. If these challenges could be addressed, ISPs could more effectively mitigate the concurrent challenges of rapid population growth and climate change in SSA.","wordCount":242,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Thomas S. Jayne","Nicole M. Mason","William Burke","Joshua Ariga"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.01.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f63d6e994d592024","title":"Highways and segregation","abstract":"This paper examines the impact of the Interstate Highway System, constructed between 1950 and 1990 in the United States (US), on racial segregation. To provide causal estimates, I use the 1947 plan of the Interstate Highway System, a variant of the 1947 plan that connects city center pairs in this plan through shortest-distance and exploration routes in the 16th-19th century, as the instruments for actual highways built. Empirical results from census tracts in the US show that the construction of highways led to sorting along racial lines. I find strong evidence of heterogeneous effects based on the initial black population. I do not find any impact of highways on neighborhoods which have a lower share of initial black population. However, there is an increase in the share of the black population for neighborhoods located in close proximity to highways, and which have a higher share of the initial black population. This increase is driven by the white population moving out and black population moving into these neighborhoods. I demonstrate that whites that moved out of neighborhoods, now commute to work, made possible due to access provided by highways. These residents were on average better educated and had a higher income than the residents moving into the neighborhoods. The reasons for this movement are disamenities emanating from highways, and racial preferences for social interactions. Finally, I show that this relationship between highways and segregation is also observed at the aggregate level. Empirical estimates indicate that one new highway passing through the central city leads to 0.02 units increase in the dissimilarity index for the metropolitan area.","wordCount":265,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Avichal Mahajan"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103574","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f648863991e0ae63","title":"JUE Insight: Were urban cowboys enough to control COVID-19? Local shelter-in-place orders and coronavirus case growth","abstract":"One of the most common policy prescriptions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 has been to legally enforce social distancing through shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). This study examines the role of localized urban SIPO policy in curbing COVID-19 cases. Specifically, we explore (i) the comparative effectiveness of county-level SIPOs in urbanized as compared to non-urbanized areas, (ii) the mechanisms through which SIPO adoption in urban counties yields COVID-related health benefits, and (iii) whether late adoption of a statewide SIPO yields health benefits beyond those achieved from early adopting counties. We exploit the unique laboratory of Texas, a state in which the early adoption of local SIPOs by densely populated counties covered almost two-thirds of the state's population prior to adoption of a statewide SIPO on April 2, 2020. Using an event study framework, we document that countywide SIPO adoption is associated with an 8 percent increase in the percent of residents who remain at home full-time and between a 13 to 19 percent decrease in foot-traffic at venues that may contribute to the spread of COVID-19 such as restaurants, bars, hotels, and entertainment venues. These social distancing effects are largest in urbanized and densely populated counties. Then, we find that in early adopting urban counties, COVID-19 case growth fell by 21 to 26 percentage points two-and-a-half weeks following adoption of a SIPO, a result robust to controls for county-level heterogeneity in COVID-19 outbreak timing, coronavirus testing, the age distribution, and political preferences. We find that approximately 90 percent of the curbed growth in COVID-19 cases in Texas came from the early adoption of SIPOs by urbanized counties, suggesting that the later statewide shelter-in-place mandate yielded relatively few health benefits.","wordCount":278,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Dhaval Dave","Andrew Friedson","Kyutaro Matsuzawa","Joseph J. Sabia","Samuel Safford"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103294","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f64d4ff6884bee1b","title":"Dynamic Agenda Setting","abstract":"A party in power can address a limited number of issues. What issues to address—the party's agenda—has dynamic implications because it affects what issues will be addressed in the future. We analyze a model in which the incumbent addresses one issue among many and the remaining issues roll over to the next period. We show that no strategic manipulation arises without checks and balances and identify strategic manipulations in the forms of waiting for the moment, seizing the moment, steering, and preemption with checks and balances depending on how power fluctuates. We also discuss efficiency implications.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Ying Chen","Hülya Eraslan"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150298","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f66072cf0cc7303f","title":"Linking permit markets multilaterally","abstract":"We formally study the determinants, magnitude and distribution of efficiency gains generated in multilateral linkages between permit markets. We provide two novel decomposition results for these gains, characterize individual preferences over linking groups and show that our results are largely unaltered with strategic domestic emissions cap selection or when banking and borrowing are allowed. Using the Paris Agreement pledges and power sector emissions data of five countries which all use or considered using both emissions trading and linking, we quantify the efficiency gains. We find that the computed gains can be sizable and are split roughly equally between effort and risk sharing.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Baran Doda","Simon Quemin","Luca Taschini"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102259","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f667768fbb27c49c","title":"Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets","abstract":"We study the effects of industrial robots on US labor markets. We show theoretically that robots may reduce employment and wages and that their local impacts can be estimated using variation in exposure to robots—defined from industry-level advances in robotics and local industry employment. We estimate robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones. We also show that areas most exposed to robots after 1990 do not exhibit any differential trends before then, and robots’ impact is distinct from other capital and technologies. One more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio by 0.2 percentage points and wages by 0.42%.","wordCount":105,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Daron Acemoğlu","Pascual Restrepo"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705716","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f66f3f7dba2483c8","title":"What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations","abstract":"Ten years after the financial crisis, the central question of what explains the rise and fall in house prices remains unresolved. We provide a unified framework to examine four excess credit supply variables and three speculation variables that have been proposed in the literature. Credit supply variables, particularly subprime share and worse originator share, strongly relate to future zip-code-level house price changes in the boom and bust, whereas none of the speculation variables consistently relate to house prices within MSAs. Pre-trends, supply elasticity, and depressed areas suggest these relations are not driven by lenders anticipating house price growth.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["John M. Griffin","Samuel Kruger","Gonzalo Maturana"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.06.014","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f66fc344df58ba80","title":"A Behavioral New Keynesian Model","abstract":"This paper analyzes how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy via an empirically relevant enrichment of the New Keynesian model. It models agents’ partial myopia toward distant atypical events using a new microfounded “cognitive discounting” parameter. Compared to the rational model, (i) there is no forward guidance puzzle; (ii) the Taylor principle changes: with passive monetary policy but enough myopia equilibria are determinate and economies stable; (iii) the zero lower bound is much less costly; (iv) price-level targeting is not optimal; (v) fiscal stimulus is effective; (vi) the model is “ neo-Fisherian” in the long run, Keynesian in the short run.","wordCount":102,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Xavier Gabaix"],"year":2020,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20162005","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f67f292888ced7de","title":"Cooperating in time of crisis: war, commons, and inequality in Renaissance Lombardy","abstract":"This article addresses the question of how exogenous shocks led to economic redistribution at a local rural community level in the pre‐industrial period, and how inequality can be limited (or not) by institutions and endogenous social structures within the community itself. This article presents a micro‐analytical study conducted mainly on unpublished sources, focusing on a boundary area (the Geradadda) disputed by Milan and Venice during the long period of the Italian Wars (1494–1559) in a broad European perspective. To understand the impact of wars, the management of local commons and communal assets is analysed in the more general context of the management of local finances. This research shows how local communities organized cooperative behaviours for the defence of local resources, developing innovative credit systems and encouraging a process of redistribution. Before other important factors—such as the distribution of wealth or of local political and social power—cooperation between social groups and the role played by elites were the keystones to limiting the increase in inequality.","wordCount":164,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Matteo Di Tullio"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12490","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f68dd5aac911ed1d","title":"The Limits of Expectations-Based Reference Dependence","abstract":"Theories of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences have provided a critical modeling innovation, incorporating a structured theory of the formation of reference points. An important prediction of these models is a monotone response in behavior to changes in expectations. To test such models we conduct a real-effort experiment manipulating expectations and examining consequences on effort provision. In contrast to the theory, we document substantial nonmonotonicities in the effort response to changing expectations. Our results provide some evidence on the limitations of expectations-based reference dependence.","wordCount":82,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Uri Gneezy","Lorenz Göette","Charles Sprenger","Florian Zimmermann"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw020","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f68f704bd5851ab2","title":"Gender differences in alternating-offer bargaining: an experimental study","abstract":"A laboratory study was carried out to analyze the relationship between ambiguity regarding the sharing norms in structured alternating-offer bargaining and gender differences in bargaining. Symmetric environments, where a 50:50 split emerges as the unique sensible norm, showed the lowest ambiguity and gender differences are absent. We increased ambiguity by introducing asymmetries into the bargaining environment by making one bargaining party get a higher share than the other (due to empowerment, entitlement or informational asymmetries), but without imposing new sharing norms. In these situations, men are less likely to reach an agreement, but, when they do, they obtain a larger share of the pie. As a result, men and women show similar overall earnings but earnings are lower when bargaining with men. We find suggestive evidence that gender differences diminish when we reduce ambiguity regarding the sharing norms by providing information about other participants’ agreements in asymmetric environments.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Iñigo Hernandez-Arenaz","Nagore Iriberri"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-023-09796-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f691247516189dbe","title":"Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection","abstract":"We develop a tractable quantitative framework to study the productivity effects of financial crises. The model features endogenous productivity, heterogeneous firm dynamics, and aggregate risk. Selection of the most promising ideas gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirm the model’s main mechanism, as firms born during the credit shortage are fewer but better in terms of idiosyncratic productivity. The quantitative analysis shows that at the end of the crisis, total output is permanently 0.9 percent lower.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Sina T. Ates","Felipe Saffie"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180014","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f6a10416970db14d","title":"Characterising green employment: The impacts of ‘greening’ on workforce composition","abstract":"This paper estimates the share of jobs in the US that would benefit from a transition to the green economy, and presents different measures for the ease with which workers are likely to be able to move from non-green to green jobs. Using the US O*NET database and its definition of green jobs, 19.4% of US workers could currently be part of the green economy in a broad sense, although a large proportion of green employment would be ‘indirectly’ green, comprising existing jobs that are expected to be in high demand due to greening, but do not require significant changes in tasks, skills, or knowledge. Analysis of task content also shows that green jobs vary in ‘greenness', with very few jobs only consisting of green tasks, suggesting that the term ‘green’ should be considered a continuum rather than a binary characteristic. While it is easier to transition to indirectly green rather than directly green jobs, greening is likely to involve transitions on a similar scale and scope of existing job transitions. Non-green jobs generally appear to differ from their green counterparts in only a few skill-specific aspects, suggesting that most re-training can happen on-the-job. Network analysis shows that the green economy offers a large potential for short-run growth if job transitions are strategically managed.","wordCount":214,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Alex Bowen","Karlygash Kuralbayeva","Eileen Tipoe"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.015","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f6afc2dbfa4e37bd","title":"The effect of ad blocking on website traffic and quality","abstract":"Ad blocking software allows Internet users to obtain information without generating ad revenue for site owners, potentially undermining investments in content. We explore the impact of site‐level ad blocker usage on website quality, as inferred from traffic. We find that each additional percentage point of site visitors blocking ads reduces its traffic by 0.67% over 35 months. Impacted sites provide less content over time, providing corroboration for the mechanism. Effects on revenue are compounded; ad blocking reduces visits, and remaining visitors blocking ads do not generate revenue. We conclude that ad blocking poses a threat to the ad‐supported web.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Benjamin Shiller","Joel Waldfogel","Johnny Ryan"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12218","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f6bfac5d6c40f6ec","title":"The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking","abstract":"We build a macrofinance model of shadow banking—the transformation of risky assets into securities that are money‐like in quiet times but become illiquid when uncertainty spikes. Shadow banking economizes on scarce collateral, expanding liquidity provision, boosting asset prices and growth, but also building up fragility. A rise in uncertainty raises shadow banking spreads, forcing financial institutions to switch to collateral‐intensive funding. Shadow banking collapses, liquidity provision shrinks, liquidity premia and discount rates rise, asset prices and investment fall. The model generates slow recoveries, collateral runs, and flight‐to‐quality effects, and it sheds light on Large‐Scale Asset Purchases, Operation Twist, and other interventions.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Alan Moreira","Alexi Savov"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12540","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f6d0734c2e357e3a","title":"Effectiveness of electric vehicle subsidies in China: A three-dimensional panel study","abstract":"Electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to emerge as the main means of zero-emission road transport. China has used a variety of policy approaches to encourage EV adoption, including vehicle purchase subsidies. This study uses a three-dimensional dataset to estimate the effect of purchase subsidies for domestic EVs on adoption in 316 cities in China over January 2016–December 2019. An instrumental variable approach that utilizes the timing of the cancellation of local subsidies by the central government is pursued. The findings suggest that purchase subsidies for domestic EVs have led to a sizeable increase in uptake, but have discouraged uptake of imported EVs. Higher consumer awareness of the subsidies is associated with a larger proportional effect on uptake of domestically-produced vehicles. We estimate that increases in the per-vehicle subsidy rate have on average reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at a marginal subsidy cost of about 4,453 CNY (US$712) per tonne, which is high. However other benefits, including long-run benefits from the emergence of a new clean technology sector, may be substantial.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Resource and Energy Economics","authors":["Tong Zhang","Paul J. Burke","Qi Wang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101424","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f6dbb7ebd418fddb","title":"Matching information","abstract":"We analyze the optimal allocation of experts to teams, where experts differ in the precision of their information, and study the assortative matching properties of the resulting assignment. The main insight is that in general it is optimal to diversify the composition of the teams, ruling out positive assortative matching. This diversification leads to negative assortative matching when teams consist of pairs of experts. And when experts' signals are conditionally independent, all teams have similar precision. We also show that if we allow experts to join multiple teams, then it is optimal to allocate them equally across all teams. Finally, we analyze how to endogenize the size of the teams, and we extend the model by introducing heterogeneous firms in which the teams operate.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Héctor Chade","Jan Eeckhout"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te1820","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-f6e43a66177ec438","title":"Unions and the Great Compression of wage inequality in the US at mid‐century: evidence from local labour markets","abstract":"This article tests whether places with higher exposure to unionization during the 1940s, due to their pre‐existing industrial composition, tended to have larger declines in wage inequality, conditional on local economic and demographic observables and regional trends. We find a strong negative correlation between exposure to unionization and changes in local inequality from 1940–50 and 1940–60. This does not appear to be underpinned by skill‐specific sorting of workers or by firms leaving places with high exposure to unionization. We also find that the correlation between exposure to unionization in the 1940s and the change in inequality after 1940 persists in long‐difference regressions to the end of the twentieth century.","wordCount":109,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["William Collins","Gregory T. Niemesh"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12744","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f6e8dd998f7bd273","title":"How to remove microplastics in wastewater? A cost-effectiveness analysis","abstract":"Millions of tonnes of plastic litter end up annually in the environment causing damage to the ecosystem. There are currently no standards regulating the amount of microplastic in wastewater, and the question is, should there be? Answering this question requires an understanding of damages microplastic causes to the environment and its removal potential from wastewater. This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of three wastewater treatment (activated sludge, rapid sand filtering and membrane bioreactor) and two sludge management technologies (anaerobic digestion and incineration), in terms of their microplastic removal capacity regarding aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We find removing microplastic from wastewater technically feasible and cost-effective. Membrane bioreactor with sludge incineration preventing removed microlitter from accumulating in soils is the most cost-effective option. This gives grounds for extending government regulation to microplastics in wastewater treatment plants. Policy targeting companies using microplastics in their products is, however, necessary to solve the problem ultimately.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Ecological Economics","authors":["Larissa Vuori","Markku Ollikainen"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107246","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f6f3f6fc8fbbf422","title":"Social norms and tariff salience: An experimental study on household waste management","abstract":"We study the introduction of a social information program on waste disposal in a setting characterized by a two-part tariff. Households pay for unsorted waste a fixed amount if their yearly disposal is below a pre-defined cap, and pay per disposal after exceeding the cap. We randomize the receipt of a social information intervention, where customers’ disposal is compared to that of similar ones. An additional treatment couples the social comparison with information on the customer’s distance from the cap. We find that the report containing the social norm alone leads to a 5% reduction in the volume of unsorted waste. Making the cap salient significantly reduces the effectiveness of the social norm. The two treatments have a similar negative effect on the likelihood of exceeding the disposal cap. The reduction in unsorted waste is partly achieved through an increase in waste sorting, and is not accompanied by higher illegal disposals or lower quality of sorted waste. Our results confirm the effectiveness of descriptive norms in coordinating behavior but indicate that providing information on economic incentives can permanently crowd out their effect.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Jacopo Bonan","Cristina Cattaneo","Giovanna D’Adda","Arianna Galliera","Massimo Tavoni"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103124","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f70d9db4c9fdebeb","title":"Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China","abstract":"We study how goods- and labor-market frictions affect aggregate labor productivity in China. Combining unique data with a general equilibrium model of internal and international trade, and migration across regions and sectors, we quantify the magnitude and consequences of trade and migration costs. The costs were high in 2000, but declined afterward. The decline accounts for 36 percent of the aggregate labor productivity growth between 2000 and 2005. Reductions in internal trade and migration costs are more important than reductions in external trade costs. Despite the decline, migration costs are still high and potential gains from further reform are large.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Trevor Tombe","Xiaodong Zhu"],"year":2019,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","J"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150811","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f70edc8955b039da","title":"To Catch a Stag: Identifying payoff- and risk-dominance effects in coordination games","abstract":"Five decades after Harsanyi and Selten's seminal work on equilibrium selection, we remain unable to predict the outcomes of real-life coordination even in simple cases. One reason is that experiments have struggled to quantify the effects of payoff- and risk-dominance and to separate them from context factors like feedback, repetition, and complexity. This experiment is the first to demonstrate that both payoff- and risk-dominance significantly and independently impact coordination decision-making. Three innovations characterize the design: First, payoff- and risk-dominance are disentangled using orthogonal measures of strategic incentives and welfare externalities. Second, a no-feedback, choice-list task format minimizes deviations from one-shot incentives. Third, beliefs about others' behavior are elicited. Strikingly, heterogeneous beliefs across the population rationalize not only reactions to risk dominance but also most reactions to payoff dominance. In addition, deviations from expected-value maximization in specific games suggest a minor role for social projection or other-regarding preferences.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Stephan Jagau"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2024.08.011","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f71842a4360a085d","title":"The social contract as a tool of analysis: Introduction to the special issue on “Framing the evolution of new social contracts in Middle Eastern and North African countries”","abstract":"The term “social contract” is increasingly used in social science literature to describe sets of state-society relations – in particular with reference to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Nevertheless, the term has thus far remained insufficiently conceptualized and its potential to inform a systematic analysis of contemporary states has been underutilized. This article contributes to the filling of this gap. It defines social contracts as sets of formal and informal agreements between societal groups and their sovereign (government or other actor in power) on rights and obligations toward each other. We argue that social contracts are partly informal institutions, which are meant to make state-society interactions more predictable and thereby politics more stable. Their effectiveness depends on their substance (deliverables exchanged between government and society), scope (the actors involved and the geographic range of influence) and temporal dimension (beginning, evolution, and duration). Social contracts can differ substantially in all three dimensions. This approach complements established theories of comparative politics and sharpens the perspective on state-society relations. It helps to (i) compare state-society relations in different countries, (ii) track changes within one country, (iii) find out when and why social contracts are broken or even revoked, (iv) uncover how external players affect state-society relations, and (v) analyze how state-society relations can be Pareto improved. Against this background, this article shows that after independence, MENA countries had quite similar social contracts, which were based on the provision of social benefits rather than political participation. We argue that they degenerated steadily after 1985 due to increasing populations and budgetary problems. The Arab uprisings in 2010–11 were an expression of discontent with a situation in which governments provided neither political participation nor social benefits, like employment. Since then, social contracts in MENA countries have developed in different directions, and their long-term stability is questionable. We address the question of how they can be transformed to become more inclusive and therefore more stable.","wordCount":320,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Markus Loewe","Tina Zintl","Annabelle Houdret"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104982","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f71dfef9fd8ab2b4","title":"The impact of agricultural commercialisation on household welfare in rural Vietnam","abstract":"Commercialisation by smallholder farmers has played a major role in agricultural development in many Asian countries, and while there are assumptions that this has led to welfare improvement, in fact there is relatively little evidence on this question. In this paper we use high quality panel data to examine the welfare impact of agricultural commercialisation in a leading Asian producer, Vietnam. We use the five-wave Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) panel data set from 2008 to 16, three measures of household welfare and create commercialisation indexes in relation to all crops and to rice specifically. We find a significant positive relationship of commercialisation with household asset accumulation, but a negative association with consumption expenditure.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Chiara Cazzuffi","Andy McKay","Emilie Perge"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101811","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f72596833f008e9c","title":"Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter","abstract":"A high-frequency approach is used to analyze the effects of President Trump’s tweets that criticize the Federal Reserve on financial markets. Identification exploits a short time window around the precise timestamp for each tweet. The average effect on the expected fed funds rate is negative and statistically significant, with the magnitude growing by horizon. The tweets also lead to an increase in stock prices and to a decrease in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. VAR evidence shows that the tweets had an important impact on actual monetary policy, the stock market, bond premia, and the macroeconomy.","wordCount":95,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Francesco Bianchi","Roberto Gómez-Cram","Thilo Kind","Howard Kung"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f749bc678363847b","title":"Exchange market share, market makers, and murky behavior: The impact of no-fee trading on cryptocurrency market quality","abstract":"This study examines the impact of zero fees on market quality. This issue is examined using a natural experiment in Bitcoin provided by the Binance exchange, which eliminated maker–taker trading fees for market participants in July 2022. I find that although zero fees increase investors’ willingness to trade, thereby prima facie increasing liquidity, their elimination encourages market makers to widen the bid–ask spread and provide a shallower market depth, which in turn reduces liquidity. Liquidity providers realize gains at the expense of liquidity takers, suggesting the emergence of new potential forms of unethical financial market conduct. Notably, despite the removal of trading fees, total transaction costs increased for customers. These outcomes, coupled with the boost in exchange market share, raise concerns about price integrity and investors’ protection in the highly unregulated crypto environment, in turn implying that the elimination of maker–taker fees is harmful to the market.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Luca Galati"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107222","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f7514ea225bff23b","title":"Initial conditions and Blundell–Bond estimators","abstract":"We place the Blundell–Bond paper in the context of the early development of panel data estimators that accounted for unobserved heterogeneity, dynamics and persistent economic series. The initial work focused on appropriate econometric methods to estimate dynamic models using unbalanced panel data with many firms and/or individuals but covering a small number of time periods. Eliminating the unobserved firm-specific ‘fixed’ effects by taking first-differences and using as instruments suitably lagged values of the dependent variable , and of endogenous or predetermined explanatory variables, led to the first-differenced GMM estimators popularised by Arellano and Bond (1991). This approach was less well suited to models which relate highly persistent series. Following Arellano and Bover (1995) we examined the use of suitably lagged first-differences as instruments for the equations in levels and derived the conditions, particularly on initial conditions, under which first-differences of the dependent variable would or would not be uncorrelated with individual-specific ‘fixed’ effects. An influential contribution was to illustrate the magnitude of the bias when the first-differenced GMM estimator is used to estimate autoregressive models for highly persistent series, and the potential to reduce that bias by using additional valid moment conditions for the equations in levels — thereby popularising the use of these extended or ‘System’ GMM estimators.","wordCount":209,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Richard Blundell","Steve Bond"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.01.020","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f75996fd7512899a","title":"Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms","abstract":"The literature that investigates credit booms has essentially focused on their economic determinants. This paper explores the importance of political conditionings and central bank independence and provides some striking findings on this matter. Estimating a fixed effects logit model over a panel of developed and developing countries for the period 1975q1–2016q4, we find that credit booms are less likely when right‐wing parties are in office, especially in developing countries, and when there is political instability. However, they have not proven to depend on the electoral cycle. More independent Central Banks are also found to reduce the probability of credit booms. Moreover, they seem to be more likely to occur and spread within a monetary union.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Vı́tor Castro","Rodrigo Martins"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12290","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f76251126a8744af","title":"Pricing and value creation in private equity-backed buy-and-build strategies","abstract":"We investigate the pricing and value creation in private equity-backed buy-and-build (B&B) strategies using a sample of 3399 buyouts between 1997 and 2020 as well as proprietary performance data. We find that private equity firms pay sizable premiums for B&B platforms. The transaction multiples are similar to those paid by strategic acquirers for matched targets. Despite paying high premiums, private equity firms generate above-average equity returns in B&B strategies. This is because of both higher top-line growth and multiple expansion. To back up our empirical results and shed light on decision-making in B&B strategies, we present evidence from the field. Survey results from 32 interviews with private equity managers provide novel insights into B&B rationale, valuation practices, pricing, value creation, acquisition processes and execution.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Benjamin Hammer","Nikolaus Marcotty-Dehm","Denis Schweizer","Bernhard Schwetzler"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2022.102285","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f766200196f95421","title":"VAT pass-through and competition: Evidence from the Greek islands","abstract":"We examine how competition affects VAT pass-through in isolated oligopolistic markets as defined by the Greek islands. Using daily gasoline prices and a difference-in-differences methodology, we investigate how changes in VAT rates are passed through to consumers in islands with different market structure. We show that pass-through increases with competition, going from 50% in monopoly to around 80% in more competitive markets, but remains incomplete. We also discover a rapid rate of adjustment for VAT changes, as well as a positive relationship between competition and the rate of price adjustment. Finally, we document higher pass-through for products with more inelastic demand.","wordCount":101,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Lydia Dimitrakopoulou","Christos Genakos","Themistoklis Kampouris","Stella Papadokonstantaki"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103110","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f76a4b62c47585d4","title":"ESG and CEO turnover around the world","abstract":"We investigate whether CEOs around the world are held accountable for stakeholder-related corporate misbehavior. The likelihood of CEO turnover increases significantly when the media coverage of the ESG incidents reaches extreme levels. CEO turnovers occur even in the cases where an incident does not lead to a stock price decline. In such cases, the board likely has a non-pecuniary motive for the turnover. This suggests that such non-pecuniary reputational concerns are an important determinant of CEO turnover decisions around the world, especially when the firm is facing intense public pressure due to stakeholder-related corporate misbehavior. This effect is more pronounced when firms are headquartered in stakeholder-oriented countries like many European countries.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Gönül Çolak","Timo Korkeamäki","Niclas Meyer"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102523","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f7760eef5a5a1d70","title":"Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short and long run impacts of climate change on residential electricity and natural gas consumption","abstract":"This paper proposes a simple two-step estimation method (Climate Adaptive Response Estimation - CARE) to estimate sectoral climate damage functions, which account for long-run adaptation. The paper applies this method in the context of residential electricity and natural gas demand for the world’s fifth largest economy — California. The advantage of the proposed method is that it only requires detailed information on intensive margin behavior, yet does not require explicit knowledge of the extensive margin response (e.g., technology adoption). Using almost two billion energy bills, we estimate spatially highly disaggregated intensive margin temperature response functions using daily variation in weather. In a second step, we explain variation in the slopes of the dose response functions across space as a function of summer climate. Using 18 climate models, we simulate future demand by letting households vary consumption along the intensive and extensive margins. We show that failing to account for extensive margin adjustment in electricity demand leads to a significant underestimate of the future impacts on electricity consumption. We further show that reductions in natural gas demand more than offset any climate-driven increases in electricity consumption in this context.","wordCount":188,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Maximilian Auffhammer"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102669","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f7810b00334568ce","title":"Controlling Health Care Costs through Limited Network Insurance Plans: Evidence from Massachusetts State Employees","abstract":"We investigate the impact of limited network insurance plans in the context of the Massachusetts Group Insurance Commission (GIC), the insurance plan for state employees. Our quasi-experimental analysis examines the introduction of a major financial incentive to choose limited network plans that affected a subset of GIC enrollees. We find that enrollees are very price sensitive in their decision to enroll in limited network plans. Those who switched spent almost 40 percent less on medical care. This reflects reductions in the quantity of services and prices paid per service. The spending reductions came from specialist and hospital care, while spending on primary care rose.","wordCount":104,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Jonathan Gruber","Robin McKnight"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140335","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f799ceacf3f52892","title":"Core stability and strategy-proofness in hedonic coalition formation problems with friend-oriented preferences","abstract":"We study hedonic coalition formation problems with friend-oriented preferences; that is, each agent has preferences over his coalitions based on a partition of the set of agents, except himself, into “friends” and “enemies” such that (E) adding an enemy makes him strictly worse off and (F) adding a friend together with a set of enemies makes him strictly better off. Friend-oriented preferences induce a so-called friendship graph where vertices are agents and directed edges point to friends. We show that the partition associated with the strongly connected components (SCC) of the friendship graph is in the strict core. We then prove that the SCC mechanism, which assigns the SCC partition to each hedonic coalition formation problem with friend-oriented preferences, satisfies a strong group incentive compatibility property: group strategy-proofness . Our main result is that on any “rich” subdomain of friend-oriented preferences, the SCC mechanism is the only mechanism that satisfies core stability and strategy-proofness .","wordCount":155,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Bettina Klaus","Flip Klijn","Seçkin Özbilen"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2025.08.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f7bb53520582df8f","title":"The Importance of Climate Risks for Institutional Investors","abstract":"According to our survey about climate risk perceptions, institutional investors believe climate risks have financial implications for their portfolio firms and that these risks, particularly regulatory risks, already have begun to materialize. Many of the investors, especially the long-term, larger, and ESG-oriented ones, consider risk management and engagement, rather than divestment, to be the better approach for addressing climate risks. Although surveyed investors believe that some equity valuations do not fully reflect climate risks, their perceived overvaluations are not large.","wordCount":80,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Philipp Krueger","Zacharias Sautner","Laura T. Starks"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz137","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f7c1eadbd8fd8ad3","title":"Measuring trust: A reinvestigation","abstract":"We reinvestigate the question first posed by Glaeser et al. (2000): Do survey measures about trust predict actual trusting behavior? This important study established that the behavior in an incentivized trust game is not correlated with the responses to the most widely used survey measures of trust. We conduct a replication and a reinvestigation of GLSS. In the replication, we use the GLSS protocol and we reproduce their results. In the reinvestigation, we introduce one major change: We replace their variation of the standard Berg, Dickhaut, and McCabe (1995) investment game with the original unmodified game. The standard game endows both players, while the modified version endows only the first mover. After endowing both movers in the reinvestigation experiment, we find a significant correlation between the two measures, suggesting that trust is a single construct, whether measured by the survey questions or by an incentivized trust game.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Billur Aksoy","Haley Harwell","Ada Kovaliukaite","Catherine C. Eckel"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12259","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f7c35c0a26f4a9d6","title":"State Minimum Wages, Employment, and Wage Spillovers: Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data","abstract":"We use administrative payroll data to estimate the effect of the minimum wage on employment and wages. We find that both effects are nuanced. While the overall number of low-wage workers in firms declines, incumbent workers are no less likely to remain employed. We find that firms reduce employment primarily through hiring, and there is significant heterogeneity across the nontradable and tradable sectors. For wages, we find modest spillovers extending up to $2.50 above the minimum wage. Spillovers accrue to both incumbent workers and new hires, but only within firms that employ a significant fraction of low-wage workers.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Radhakrishnan Gopalan","Barton H. Hamilton","Ankit Kalda","David Sovich"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711355","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f7d8bb0ab33f9423","title":"Emotions and Political Unrest","abstract":"How does political unrest influence public policy? We assume that protests are an emotional reaction to unfair treatment. Individuals have a consistent view of fairness that internalizes government constraints. Individuals accept lower welfare if the government is more constrained. This resignation effect induces a benevolent government to delay unpleasant choices and accumulate public debt to mitigate social unrest. More radical and homogeneous groups are more prone to unrest and hence more influential. Even if the government is benevolent and all groups are identical in their propensity to riot, equilibrium policy can be distorted. The evidence is consistent with these implications.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Francesco Passarelli","Guido Tabellini"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/691700","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f7dbd70262d3db06","title":"Mind your language: Market responses to central bank speeches","abstract":"Central bank communication between meetings often moves markets, but researchers have traditionally paid less attention to it. Using a dataset of U.S. Federal Reserve speeches, we develop supervised multimodal natural language processing methods to identify how monetary policy news affect bond and stock market volatility and tail risk through implied changes in forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment. We find that forecast revisions derived from FOMC-member speech can help explain volatility and tail risk in both equity and bond markets. Speeches from Chairs tend to produce larger forecast revisions and unconditionally raise volatility and tail risk, but their economic signals can calm markets (reduce volatility and tail risk). There is some evidence that a speaker’s monetary policy views may affect the impact of implied forecast revisions after conditioning on GDP growth.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Maximilian Ahrens","Deniz Erdemlioglu","Michael McMahon","Christopher J. Neely","Xiye Yang"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105921","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f7dc707278d87fd4","title":"Maize and precolonial Africa","abstract":"Columbus's arrival in the New World triggered an unprecedented movement of people and crops across the Atlantic Ocean. We study a largely overlooked part of this Columbian Exchange: the effects of New World crops in Africa. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that the introduction of maize increased population density and slave exports in precolonial Africa. We find robust empirical support for these predictions. We also find little evidence to suggest maize increased economic growth or reduced conflict. Our results suggest that rather than stimulating development, the introduction of maize simply increased the supply of slaves during the slave trades.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Jevan Cherniwchan","Juan Moreno‐Cruz"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.10.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f7fac8a9a620d432","title":"Do tradeoffs among dimensions of women’s empowerment and nutrition outcomes exist? Evidence from six countries in Africa and Asia","abstract":"Although women's empowerment and gender equality are often linked with better maternal and child nutrition outcomes, recent systematic reviews find inconclusive evidence. This paper applies a comparable methodology to data on the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI), an internationally-validated measure based on interviews of women and men within the same household, from six countries in Africa and Asia to identify which dimensions of women's empowerment are related to household-, woman-, and child-level dietary and nutrition outcomes. We examine relationships between women's empowerment and household-level dietary diversity; women's dietary diversity and BMI; and child-related outcomes, controlling for woman, child, and household characteristics. We also test for differential associations of women's empowerment with nutrition outcomes for boys and girls. We find few significant associations between the aggregate empowerment scores and nutritional outcomes. The women's empowerment score is positively associated only with child HAZ, while lower intrahousehold inequality is associated with a higher likelihood of exclusive breastfeeding and higher HAZ but with lower BMI. However, analysis of the subdomain indicators finds more significant associations, suggesting that tradeoffs exist among different dimensions of empowerment. Women's empowerment accounts for a small share of the variance in nutritional outcomes, with household wealth and country-level factors accounting for the largest share of the variation in household and women's dietary diversity. In contrast, most of the variation in child outcomes comes from child age. Improving nutritional outcomes requires addressing the underlying determinants of poor nutrition in addition to empowering women and improving gender equality.","wordCount":247,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Agnes Quisumbing","Kathryn Sproule","Elena Martínez","Hazel Malapit"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.102001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f814bddfed0f464f","title":"Employee preferences for working from home in Australia","abstract":"We surveyed 1,113 Australian employees with jobs that have some capability of being done remotely at least some of the time. Survey respondents were presented stated preference experiments where they were offered a choice between alternative working arrangements for their present job that varied in terms of ability to work remotely and wage rates. This data was used to develop and estimate a discrete choice model of worker preferences for remote working. We found that the average worker in our sample would be willing to forego roughly 4 - 8 per cent of their annual wages to have the ability to work remotely some workdays and/or workhours. However, we found considerable heterogeneity across our sample. Roughly 55 per cent of the sample were not willing to forego wages to have the ability to work remotely, while roughly 20 per cent were willing to forego 16 - 33 per cent in annual wages for the same. We found that attitudes towards the impacts of remote working on human relations were a significant predictor of these differences. Workers who did not value the ability to work remotely were more concerned about negative impacts on their relationships with their colleagues, supervisors, and the firm as a whole, as well as opportunities for learning and career advancement.","wordCount":213,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Akshay Vij","Flavio F. Souza","Helen Barrie","V. Anilan","Sergio Sarmiento","Lynette Washington"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.08.020","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f81917705d086853","title":"Wage inequality and the location of cities","abstract":"We document that isolated cities have lower skill wage premia in American census data. To explain this correlation and other correlations between population and wages, we build an equilibrium empirical model that incorporates high and low-skill labor, costly trade, and both agglomeration and congestion forces. Our paper bridges the gap between the economic geography literature which abstracts from inequality, and the spatial inequality literature which abstracts from geography. We find that geographical location explains 16.5% of observed variation in the skill wage premium across American cities. We use our model to simulate counterfactual trade and technology shocks. Reductions in domestic trade costs benefit both skill groups but low-skill workers benefit more.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Farid Farrokhi","David Jinkins"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.04.004","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-f81e0538bda85695","title":"Capital Shares and Income Inequality: Evidence from the Long Run","abstract":"This article studies the long-run relationship between the capital share in national income and top personal income shares. Using a newly constructed historical cross-country database on capital shares and top income data, we find evidence on a strong, positive link that has grown stronger over the past century. The connection is stronger in Anglo-Saxon countries, in the very top of the distribution, when top capital incomes predominate, when using distributed top national income shares, and when considering gross of depreciation capital shares. Out of-sample predictions of top shares using capital shares indicates several cases of over- or underestimation.","wordCount":98,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Erik Bengtsson","Daniel Waldenström"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050718000347","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f82a64c3877dfbf5","title":"Worries of the poor: The impact of financial burden on the risk attitudes of micro-entrepreneurs","abstract":"We randomly expose the owners of small retail businesses in Vietnam to scenarios that trigger financial worries and study the effect of this intervention on risk attitudes using an incentive-compatible elicitation method. We find that entrepreneurs exposed to financial worries behave less risk-averse than those assigned to a placebo treatment. This effect is stronger for owners of shops which are smaller and those less exposed to large income shocks in their everyday business. We further show that the effect of financial worries on risk attitudes is not explained by changes in the cognitive functioning of the treated. The findings are consistent with previous results from laboratory experiments with students in developed countries. As such, the paper provides evidence for the external validity of these findings in the context of micro-entrepreneurship in a developing country and points to financial worries as one understudied psychological channel for the effect of material deprivation on decision-making.","wordCount":152,"journal":"Journal of Economic Psychology","authors":["Patricio S. Dalton","Nguyễn Thị Hồng Nhung","Julius Rüschenpöhler"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2019.102198","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f834eea1e5e25dc5","title":"School quality and the return to schooling in Britain: New evidence from a large-scale compulsory schooling reform","abstract":"What is the causal effect of schooling on subsequent labor market outcomes? In this paper I contribute evidence on this question by re-examining a British compulsory schooling reform that yields large-scale and quasi-experimental variation in schooling. First, I note that this reform was introduced in 1947, when British students attended higher-track (for the “top” 20%) or lower-track (for the rest) secondary schools. The reform increased the minimum school leaving age from 14 to 15 and I show that the vast majority (over 95%) of affected students attended lower-track schools. Second, I show that the additional schooling induced by the reform had close to zero impact on a range of labor market outcomes. Third, I attribute these findings to the quality of these lower-track schools, which I argue was low along several dimensions.","wordCount":132,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Damon Clark"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104902","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f83f6b002ed362b7","title":"JUE Insight: What is the impact of opportunity zones on job postings?","abstract":"We study the effect of Opportunity Zones (OZs) on job postings using data comprising the near-universe of U.S. online job postings. The OZs program grants tax breaks for investment in designated distressed communities, nominated by each state’s governor based on multiple factors. We use propensity score matching to account for those factors and a difference-in-differences model over the matched sample to estimate the effect of the program. We find limited evidence of any effect of OZs on job postings on average, although we do find small positive effects in urban areas, in areas with above median Black population, and in some states.","wordCount":102,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Rachel Atkins","Pablo Hernández‐Lagos","Cristian Jara-Figueroa","Robert Seamans"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103545","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f84aa036962fedd6","title":"Rational disinhibition and externalities in prevention","abstract":"This article studies a model of disease propagation in which rational and forward‐looking individuals can control their exposure to infection by engaging in costly preventive behavior. Equilibrium outcomes under decentralized decision making are characterized and contrasted to the outcomes chosen by a social planner. In general, individuals overexpose themselves to infection, leading to suboptimally high disease prevalence. The model is applied to study the welfare effects of preexposure prophylaxis, which reduces transmission between serodiscordant couples and causes disinhibition. It is shown that a decrease in the induced infection risks increases disease prevalence and can lead to decreases in overall welfare.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Flavio Toxvaerd"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12402","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f85cfc729ba57a94","title":"China’s Model of Managing the Financial System","abstract":"China’s economic model involves regular and intensive government interventions in financial markets, while Western policymakers often refrain from substantial interventions outside crisis periods. We develop a theoretical framework to rationalize the approaches of both China and the West to managing the financial system as being optimal given the differences in their respective economies. In this framework, a government leans against trading of noise traders but at the expense of introducing policy noise to the market. Our welfare analysis shows that under certain underlying economic conditions, the optimal government policy induces a government-centric equilibrium, in which government intervention is so intensive that all investors choose to acquire private information about policy noise rather than fundamentals. This policy regime characterizes China’s approach with financial stability prioritized over other policy objectives.","wordCount":128,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Markus K. Brunnermeier","Michael Sockin","Wei Xiong"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab098","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f88030902e78dee8","title":"Understanding Peer Effects: On the Nature, Estimation, and Channels of Peer Effects","abstract":"This paper estimates peer effects in a university context where students are randomly assigned to sections. While students benefit from better peers on average, low-achieving students are harmed by high-achieving peers. Analyzing students’ course evaluations suggests that peer effects are driven by improved group interaction rather than adjustments in teachers’ behavior or students’ effort. Building on Angrist’s research, we further show that classical measurement error in a setting where group assignment is systematic can lead to a substantial overestimation of peer effects. However, when group assignment is random—like in our setting—peer effect estimates are biased toward zero.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jan Feld","Ulf Zölitz"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/689472","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f881cc904589f807","title":"The long-run impact of human capital on innovation and economic development in the regions of Europe","abstract":"Human capital is supposed to be an important factor for innovation and economic development. However, the long-run impact of human capital on current innovation and economic development is still a black box, in particular at the regional level. Therefore, this paper makes the link between the past and the present. Using a large new dataset on regional human capital and other factors in the 19th and 20th century, we find that past regional human capital is a key factor explaining current regional disparities in innovation and economic development.","wordCount":88,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Claude Diebolt","Ralph Hippe"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1495820","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f8b2d749833438c1","title":"General Equilibrium Impacts of a Federal Clean Energy Standard","abstract":"Economists have tended to view emissions pricing (e.g., cap and trade or a carbon tax) as the most cost-effective approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper offers a different view. Employing analytical and numerically solved general equilibrium models, it provides plausible conditions under which a more conventional form of regulation—namely, the use of a clean energy standard (CES)—is more cost-effective. The models reveal that the CES distorts factor markets less because it is a smaller implicit tax on factors of production. This advantage more than offsets the disadvantages of the CES when minor emissions reductions are involved.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Lawrence H. Goulder","Marc Hafstead","Roberton C. Williams"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140011","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f8bcb6544dcf33c2","title":"The “Hierarchy of Institutions” reconsidered: Monetary policy and its effect on the rule of law in interwar Poland","abstract":"Traditional wisdom in economics holds that institutional change runs from political institutions to economic ones, with the distribution of political power affecting the creation of property rights and rule of law. This hierarchy of institutions has been observed in macroeconomic policy, where it has long been understood that there are political incentives for economic mismanagement, namely the creation of inflation. But are there longer-term effects of currency manipulation on the rule of law in a country? That is, does the hierarchy not always hold? This paper answers this question by focusing on a specific case of monetary instability, the newly-independent Second Polish Republic of 1918 to 1939. Using appropriate econometric techniques on a new database of historical data, I find that monetary profligacy correlates strongly with significantly lower levels of the rule of law. This result is robust to several tests and most specifications, including the use of a new variable for measuring access to the political system. The results suggest that monetary instability is a threat to political institutions in its own right, eroding the rule of law in addition to creating macroeconomic difficulties.","wordCount":185,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Christopher A. Hartwell"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","E","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2018.03.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f8ca89a6bc756ce7","title":"Sorting through Affirmative Action: Three Field Experiments in Colombia","abstract":"The use of affirmative action policies to promote female employment remains debated. Do affirmative action policies attract female applicants, and does that come at the expense of deterring highly qualified male applicants? In three field experiments in Colombia, we compare job seekers who are informed of affirmative action selection criteria before they apply with those who are told after applying. We find that the gains in attracting female applicants far outweigh the losses in male applicants. Moreover, our results indicate that affirmative action does not decrease the quality of the top 15th percentile of the pool of applicants.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Marcela Ibáñez","Gerhard Riener"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/694469","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f8cffdd156c37fb3","title":"Lifespans of the European Elite, 800–1800","abstract":"I analyze the adult age at death of 115,650 European nobles from 800 to 1800. Longevity began increasing long before 1800 and the Industrial Revolution, with marked increases around 1400 and again around 1650. Declines in violent deaths from battle contributed to some of this increase, but the majority must reflect other changes in individual behavior. There are historic spatial contours to European elite mortality; Northwest Europe achieved greater adult lifespans than the rest of Europe even by 1000 ad .","wordCount":81,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Neil Cummins"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717000468","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f8dfb1fd5c2e03fe","title":"Flexible Wages, Bargaining, and the Gender Gap","abstract":"Does flexible pay increase the gender wage gap? To answer this question, we analyze the wages of public school teachers in Wisconsin, where a 2011 reform allowed school districts to set teachers’ pay more flexibly and engage in individual negotiations. Using quasi-exogenous variation in the timing of the introduction of flexible pay, driven by the expiration of preexisting collective-bargaining agreements, we show that flexible pay lowered the salaries of women compared with men with the same credentials. This gap is larger for younger teachers and smaller for teachers working under a female principal or superintendent. Survey evidence suggests that the gap is partly driven by women engaging less frequently in negotiations over pay, especially when the counterpart is a man. The gap is unlikely to be driven by observable gender differences in job mobility or teacher ability, although the threat of moving and a high demand for male teachers could exacerbate it. Our results suggest that pay discretion and wage bargaining are important determinants of the gender wage gap and that institutions, such as unions, might help narrow this gap.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","authors":["Barbara Biasi","Heather Sarsons"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab026","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f8e4d50dd08ff285","title":"Measurements of skill and skill-use using PIAAC","abstract":"We develop new indices of skill and skill use, drawing on the alley of skill and skill-use questions in the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). We demonstrate that the proposed skill and skill use indices explain the wage gap between males and females, as well as the gap between immigrants and natives. We also show that the skill use index captures the side effect of parental-leave policies on females that conventional labor-market outcomes fail to capture. We discuss how the newly developed indices can be merged to conventional survey data.","wordCount":94,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Daiji Kawaguchi","Takahiro Toriyabe"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102197","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f8e93bd879cdbdd5","title":"The bedroom tax","abstract":"Housing subsidies for low income households are a central pillar of many welfare systems, but an expensive one. This paper investigates the consequences of an unusual policy aimed at reducing the cost of these subsidies by rationing tenants' use of space. Specifically, we study a policy introduced by the UK Government in 2013, which substantially cut housing benefits for tenants deemed to have a ‘spare’ bedroom – based on specific criteria related to household composition. Our study is the first to evaluate the impacts of the policy on its target group using a strategy that compares the observed changes in behaviour of the treated households to those of a control group. The treatment and control groups are defined by the detail of the policy rules. We find that – as expected – the treated group loses housing benefits and overall income. Although the policy was not successful in encouraging residential moves (despite efforts to make mobility within the social sector easier), it did incentivise people who moved to downsize – suggesting some success in terms of one of the policy goals, namely reducing under-occupancy. The policy did not incentivise people to work more and we find no statistically significant effects on households' food consumption or saving behaviour. The implication of our findings is that this type of policy has limited power to change housing consumption or employment in the short run. While it might reduce the costs of housing subsidies to the taxpayer, it does so by imposing a direct financial cost to social tenants unable or unwilling to downsize.","wordCount":260,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Stephen Gibbons","María Sánchez-Vidal","Olmo Silva"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.12.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f8ea320d48feb896","title":"Tournament-style political competition and local protectionism: Theory and evidence from China","abstract":"We argue that interjurisdictional competition in a regionally decentralized authoritarian regime distorts local politicians’ incentives in resource allocation among firms from their own city and a competing city. We develop a tournament model of project selection that captures the driving forces of local protectionism. The model robustly predicts that the joint presence of regional spillover and the incentive for political competition leads to biased resource allocations against the competing regions. Combining unique data sets, we test our model predictions in the context of government procurement allocation and firms’ equity investment across Chinese cities. We find that, first, when local politicians are in more intensive political competition, they allocate fewer government procurement contracts to firms in the competing city; second, local firms, especially local state-owned enterprises (SOEs), internalize the local politicians’ career concerns and invest less in the competing cities. Our paper provides a political economy explanation for inefficient local protectionism in an autocracy incentivized by tournament-style political competition. When local politicians are in more intensive political competition, local firms, especially local state-owned enterprises (SOEs), internalize the local politicians’ career concerns and invest less in the competing cities.","wordCount":187,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Huang Fang","Ming Li","Zenan Wu"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"P","allJels":["P","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic Systems / P","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105421","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f8fae44b8ced6f95","title":"How Valuable Is FinTech Innovation?","abstract":"We provide large-scale evidence on the occurrence and value of FinTech innovation. Using data on patent filings from 2003 to 2017, we apply machine learning to identify and classify innovations by their underlying technologies. We find that most FinTech innovations yield substantial value to innovators, with blockchain being particularly valuable. For the overall financial sector, internet of things (IoT), robo-advising, and blockchain are the most valuable innovation types. Innovations affect financial industries more negatively when they involve disruptive technologies from nonfinancial startups, but market leaders that invest heavily in their own innovation can avoid much of the negative value effect.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Mark A. Chen","Qinxi Wu","Baozhong Yang"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy130","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f8fdf23331fd9857","title":"Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?","abstract":"Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. Using data on more than 100 million births from 1988 to 2014, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, there is a large and rapid fall in the growth rate of conceptions several quarters prior to economic decline. This newly emerging pattern appears in the aggregate data, as well as within individual states and in many European countries. Our findings suggest that fertility behaviour is more forward looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.","wordCount":96,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Kasey Buckles","Daniel Hungerman","Steven Lugauer"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa068","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f90f374749e27626","title":"Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty","abstract":"This article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China’s accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China’s policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Applied Economics","authors":["Pui Sun Tam"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1436151","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f91540503d624123","title":"From fields to factories: Special economic zones, foreign direct investment, and labour markets in Vietnam","abstract":"Vietnam's deep integration into GVCs has been driven by the establishment of special economic zones (SEZs). This paper examines the local labour market impacts of this SEZ programme. We trace the built-up area of SEZs over time to construct a novel continuous measure of SEZ exposure using historical satellite imagery. In a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment, we examine the impact of SEZ exposure on local labour market outcomes at the district-level for the period 2009–2019. We find that the expansion of SEZs has led to a rapid shift in employment from own-account and family work in agriculture to manufacturing in foreign firms. We also show that SEZ exposure leads to higher wages and more formal employment contracts. Earnings improvements are not confined to workers in foreign manufacturing firms, but spill over to workers in household businesses and domestic firms. The effects on women account for most of these impacts.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Tevin Tafese","Jann Lay","Van Quang Tran"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103467","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f91a3850e8b51b01","title":"Monetary and fiscal policy design at the zero lower bound: Evidence from the lab","abstract":"The global economic crisis of 2007–2008 has pushed many advanced economies into a liquidity trap. We design a laboratory experiment on the effectiveness of policy measures to avoid expectation‐driven liquidity traps. Monetary policy alone is not sufficient to avoid liquidity traps, even if it preventively cuts the interest rate when inflation falls below a threshold. However, monetary policy augmented with a fiscal switching rule succeeds in escaping liquidity trap episodes. We measure the effect of fiscal policy on expectations, and report larger‐than‐unity fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound. Experimental results in different treatments are well explained by adaptive learning.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Cars Hommes","Domenico Massaro","Isabelle Salle"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","D","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12741","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-f93292e2be92f935","title":"Local Industrial Shocks and Infant Mortality","abstract":"Local industrial development has the potential to improve health and well-being, while also damaging health through exposure to harmful pollution. It is an empirical question which of these effects dominate. Exploiting the quasi-experimental expansion of African large-scale gold mining, I find that local infant mortality rates decrease by more than 50% alongside rapid economic growth. The instantaneous reduction is comparable to overall gains in infant survival rates in the study countries from 1970 to today. The results are robust to migration. Local industrial development – despite risk of pollution – may be an effective tool to reduce infant mortality in developing countries.","wordCount":102,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Anja Benshaul-Tolonen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12625","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f937f77f0ff3f226","title":"The effect of culture on energy efficient vehicle ownership","abstract":"We provide an empirical analysis on the relation between culture and revealed environmental preferences. Switzerland's citizens share the same set of institutions but belong to multiple population groups, which differ by culture and language across distinct geographical locations. This unique setting allows us to disentangle the effect of culture on individual consumer preferences from institutional characteristics. We analyze the effect of culture on energy efficient vehicle registration, using municipality level data and applying a spatial fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design at the internal French/German language border. Our results indicate that French-speaking municipalities have a 3 to 6 percentage points higher share of energy efficient vehicles, compared to their German-speaking counterparts. These findings suggest that French-speakers place a higher value on the environment, which may be due to their higher sense of collectivism and altruism.","wordCount":133,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Massimo Filippini","Tobias Wekhof"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102400","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f937ffd97928c0ed","title":"Which misspecifications persist?","abstract":"We use an evolutionary model to determine which misperceptions can persist. Every period, a new generation of agents use their subjective models and the data generated by the previous generation to update their beliefs, and models that induce better actions become more prevalent. An equilibrium can resist mutations that lead agents to use a model that better fits the equilibrium data but induce the mutated agents to take an action with lower payoffs. We characterize which steady states resist mutations to a nearby model, and which resist mutations that drop a qualitative restriction such as independence.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Drew Fudenberg","Giacomo Lanzani"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te5298","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-f9398ab2a42198b1","title":"Bounded awareness and anomalies in intertemporal choice: Zooming in Google Earth as both metaphor and model","abstract":"This paper draws on recent developments in the theory of choice under uncertainty to model anomalies in intertemporal choice. Cognitive limitations leading to hyperbolic discounting and magnitude effects in intertemporal choice may be described in terms of bounded awareness, and represented by phenomena familiar from visualization software such as Google Earth. Cognitive limits on visualization impose constraints on both the area being viewed and the level of detail of the view, with a trade-off between the two. Increasing detail at the expense of limiting the area viewed may be described as zooming. Data from a field experiment were used to assess the theory with an incentive-compatible multiple price list approach involving magnitude levels of 5x, 10x and 20x the basic magnitude level with time horizons of one, three, six and 12 months. Without zooming adjustments in base consumption, very strong hyperbolic and magnitude effects were found, and present bias could not explain the hyperbolic effects. The zooming model provides an explanation of what appear to be significant intertemporal anomalies in the data.","wordCount":172,"journal":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","authors":["Stein T. Holden","John Quiggin"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","Q","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9254-2","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f942f472289fa291","title":"Pumps, prosperity and household power: Experimental evidence on irrigation pumps and smallholder farmers in Kenya","abstract":"Irrigation is a potentially effective technology to improve agricultural incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa, and hand powered irrigation pumps have received significant interest and investment as a solution appropriate to small-scale farmers in this context. This paper describes the results of an RCT impact evaluation of household irrigation pumps in Kenya, where we randomly allocated free pumps to the female head of household via public lotteries. After two years farmers are still making significant use of their pumps and allocating increased time to irrigated agriculture. We find that pumps increase net farm revenue by approximately 13% of the control mean, and pay for themselves within three years. In addition, we find that farmers with irrigation pumps spent less time on off-farm economic activity. Finally, we find that female decisionmaking power increased and domestic violence decreased among treatment households.","wordCount":137,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Julian Dyer","Jeremy Shapiro"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103034","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f94f6dfa32fc645d","title":"The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns","abstract":"We perform the most comprehensive test of long-term reversal in national equity indices ever done. Having examined data from 71 countries for the years 1830 through 2019, we demonstrate a strong reversal pattern: the past long-term return negatively predicts future performance. The phenomenon is not subsumed by other established cross-sectional return patterns, including the value effect. The long-term reversal is robust to many considerations but highly unstable through time. Finally, our findings support the overreaction explanation of this anomaly.","wordCount":79,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Adam Zaremba","Renatas Kizys","Muhammad Wajid Raza"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.11.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-f9562e9f9e7e48bb","title":"Establishing Economic Property Rights by Giving Away an Empire","abstract":"The first land [grant] for a transcontinental railroad and the Homestead Act were both passed in 1862. Each gave away massive federal lands, created incentives to rush construction and settlement, and (at least partly) dissipated land values. I argue that these apparently wealth-reducing actions rationally utilized railroads and settlers to establish meaningful federal ownership over the frontier and allowed for future federal land sales to take place. This paper examines the tenuous US sovereignty in the West, the institutional details of the land grants, and (using newly digitized records) the relationship among railroads, homesteads, and cash sales to test the theory that “giving away an empire” was a rational strategy to establish economic property rights through quick occupation.","wordCount":118,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Douglas W. Allen"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/703464","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f9627c471b185063","title":"Indifference, indecisiveness, experimentation, and stochastic choice","abstract":"Among the reasons behind the choice behavior of an individual taking a stochastic form are her potential indifference or indecisiveness between certain alternatives, and/or her willingness to experiment in the sense of occasionally deviating from choosing a best alternative to give a try to other options. We introduce methods of identifying if and when a stochastic choice model may be thought of as arising due to any one of these three reasons. Each of these methods furnishes a natural way of making deterministic welfare comparisons within any model that is “rationalized” as such. In turn, we apply these methods, and characterize the associated welfare orderings, in the case of several well‐known classes of stochastic choice models.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Efe A. Ok","Gerelt Tserenjigmid"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te4216","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-f9661e99d8abfa0d","title":"The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on macroeconomic activity","abstract":"We estimate a number of macroeconomic variables as logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) processes with uncertainty as the transition variable. The notion is that the effects of increases in uncertainty should not be symmetrical with the effects of decreases in uncertainty. Nonlinear estimation allows us to answer several interesting questions left unanswered by a linear model. For a number of important macroeconomic variables, we show that (i) a positive shock to uncertainty has a greater effect than a negative shock and (ii) the effect of the uncertainty shock is highly dependent on the state of the economy. Hence, the usual linear estimates for the consequences of uncertainty are underestimated in circumstances such as the recent financial crisis.","wordCount":117,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Paul M. Jones","Walter Enders"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000807","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f9694772c10a51b4","title":"Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle","abstract":"Using error‐free data on life‐cycle portfolio allocations of a large sample of Norwegian households, we document a double adjustment as households age: a rebalancing of the portfolio composition away from stocks as they approach retirement and stock market exit after retirement. When structurally estimating an extended life‐cycle model, the parameter combination that best fits the data is one with a relatively large risk aversion, a small per‐period participation cost, and a yearly probability of a large stock market loss in line with the frequency of stock market crashes in Norway.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Andreas Fagereng","Charles Gottlieb","Luigi Guiso"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12484","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-f9759f96d9d2e9ca","title":"Comparing the response of different education groups to predictable changes in income","abstract":"The Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) can be tested using the excess-sensitivity test, which investigates whether current consumption is affected by predictable changes in income. Several studies have shown that households are overly sensitive to changes in current income, especially if they have low assets. This study shows that university educated households behave according to PIH, but that less educated households are excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income. This result is consistent with the idea that university-educated households are more patient.","wordCount":81,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Charles Grant"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103676","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f9784c41b0de59b9","title":"The New Vertical Merger Guidelines: Muddying the Waters","abstract":"The new U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission Vertical Merger Guidelines focus on how vertical mergers are likely to affect static pricing incentives. While vertical mergers can create incentives to increase prices, they can also provide incentives to decrease prices. Which of the possible outcomes is likely to occur depends on details that are generally difficult to measure. Potential competition between dominant firms, the theory of potential harm to competition that the 1984 Department of Justice Merger Guidelines stressed, remains a more compelling rationale for blocking vertical mergers than the likely effect on static pricing incentives.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Michael A. Salinger"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-021-09824-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f984d9cee982f2eb","title":"Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability","abstract":"We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We show that windfalls have no effect on democracies, while they have heterogeneous political consequences in autocracies. In deeply entrenched autocracies, the effect of windfalls is virtually nil, while in moderately entrenched autocracies, windfalls significantly exacerbate the autocratic nature of the political system. To frame the empirical work, we present a simple model in which political incumbents choose the degree of political contestability and potential challengers decide whether to try to unseat the incumbents. The model uncovers a mechanism for the asymmetric impact of resource windfalls on democracies and autocracies, as well as the the differential impact within autocracies.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Francesco Caselli","Andrea Tesei"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00538","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f991b93711f024fd","title":"The Aggregate Cost of Crime in the United States","abstract":"Estimates of crime’s burden inform public and private decisions about crime-prevention measures. More than counts of criminal offenses, the aggregate cost of crime conveys the scale of problems from crime and the value of deterrence. This article offers an estimate of the total annual cost of crime in the United States, including the direct costs of law enforcement, criminal justice, and victims’ losses and the indirect costs of private deterrence, fear and agony, and time lost to avoidance and recovery. The findings update crime-cost estimates of past decades while expanding the scope of coverage to include categories missing from past studies. The estimated annual cost of crime is $4.71–$5.76 trillion including transfers from victims to criminals and $2.86–$3.92 trillion net of transfers.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["David A. Anderson"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/715713","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-f9c2c65463dfcee1","title":"The optimal inflation rate under Schumpeterian growth","abstract":"To analyze the relationship between inflation and economic growth, we construct an endogenous growth model with creative destruction, incorporating sticky prices due to menu costs. Price changes reduce the reward for innovation and thus lower the frequency of creative destruction. Central banks can maximize the growth rate by setting their inflation target at the negative of a fundamental growth rate. While the optimal inflation rate may be greater than the growth-maximizing inflation rate, our calibrated model shows that the optimal inflation rate is close to the growth-maximizing inflation rate and that a deviation from the optimal level has sizable impacts.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Koki Oikawa","Kōzō Ueda"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.07.012","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-f9c9721b4d94c6f3","title":"First foods: Diet quality among infants aged 6–23 months in 42 countries","abstract":"Diet quality is closely linked to child growth and development, especially among infants aged 6-23 months who need to complement breastmilk with the gradual introduction of nutrient-rich solid foods. This paper links Demographic and Health Survey data on infant feeding to household and environmental factors for 76,641 children in 42 low- and middle-income countries surveyed in 2006-2013, providing novel stylized facts about diets in early childhood. Multivariate regressions examine the associations of household socioeconomic characteristics and community level indicators of climate and infrastructure with dietary diversity scores (DDS). Results show strong support for an infant-feeding version of Bennett's Law, as wealthier households introduce more diverse foods at earlier ages, with additional positive effects of parental education, local infrastructure and more temperate agro-climatic conditions. Associations with consumption of specific nutrient-dense foods are less consistent. Our findings imply that while income growth is indeed an important driver of diversification, there are strong grounds to also invest heavily in women's education and food environments to improve diet quality, while addressing the impacts of climate change on livelihoods and food systems. These results reveal systematic patterns in how first foods vary across developing countries, pointing to new opportunities for research towards nutrition-smart policies to improve children's diets.","wordCount":203,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Samira Choudhury","Derek Headey","William A. Masters"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101762","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fa130bc422acbff1","title":"Sovereign debt relief and its aftermath","abstract":"This paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long-term perspective. We quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples: 1920–1939, focusing on the defaults on official (government to government) debt in advanced economies after World War I; and 1978–2010, focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors. Debt relief was substantial in both eras, averaging 21% of GDP in the 1930s and 16% of GDP in recent decades. We then analyze the aftermath of debt relief and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis around the synchronous war debt defaults of 1934 and the Baker and Brady initiatives of the 1980s/1990s. The economic landscape of debtor countries improves significantly after debt relief operations, but only if these involve debt write-offs. Softer forms of debt relief, such as maturity extensions and interest rate reductions, are not generally followed by higher economic growth or improved credit ratings.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Carmen Reinhart","Christoph Trebesch"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","P","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12166","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fa18b8cfe482cf4a","title":"A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth","abstract":"We apply a nonparametric panel data model with cross-sectional and time-varying coefficients to examine the relationship between tourist arrivals and economic growth in the Schengen area from 1995 to 2019. In contrast to the parametric models employed in other studies, our nonparametric model makes no assumption about functional form and, hence, allows us to model the relationship nonlinearly. We find that the tourism–economic growth relationship in the Schengen area is nonlinear and time-varying. While the relationship between tourism and economic growth was positive and significant during 1995–2003, it was negative and significant during the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2008) and the European recession of 2012–2013. One additional contribution of the study is the finding that total factor productivity (TFP) has been growing at 1.45% per year. The results also show that country-level TFP growth was disrupted during the aforementioned negative economic shocks.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Ergün Doğan","Xibin Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106487","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fa21921fee6ad759","title":"International patent protection and trade: Transaction-level evidence","abstract":"We report a hitherto undocumented causal mechanism of how patent protection affects exports. The empirical analysis leverages unique data on the worldwide patenting and exporting activities at the product level for the universe of French firms. Exploiting heterogeneity of patent coverage within firm–product–country destinations, we find evidence of a patent premium. Goods protected by patents in a destination country are associated with higher export quantities, ceteris paribus. The effect ranges between four and eleven percent. The causality of the finding is confirmed using rejected patent applications, which are exogenous to the firm. Exports collapse when firms lose patent protection.","wordCount":99,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Gaétan de Rassenfosse","Marco Grazzi","Daniele Moschella","Gabriele Pellegrino"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104160","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fa28221d5552e0e4","title":"Pre‐Reformation Roots of the Protestant Ethic","abstract":"We hypothesize that cultural appreciation of hard work and thrift, the Protestant ethic according \\nto Max Weber, had a pre-Reformation origin. The proximate source of these values was, according to \\nthe proposed theory, the Catholic Order of Cistercians. In support, we first document an impact from \\nthe Order on growth within the epicenter of the industrial revolution; English counties that were more \\nexposed to Cistercian monasteries experienced faster productivity growth from the 13th century onwards. \\nConsistent with a cultural influence, this impact is also found after the monasteries were dissolved in the \\n1530s. Second, we find that the values emphasized by Weber are relatively more pervasive in European \\nregions where Cistercian monasteries were located historically, and that the legacy of the Cistercians can \\nbe detected in present-day employment rates across European sub-regions.","wordCount":132,"journal":"The Economic Journal","authors":["Thomas Barnebeck Andersen","Jeanet Bentzen","Carl‐Johan Dalgaard","Paul Sharp"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12367","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fa2ab5feb54909d6","title":"Job uncertainty and deep recessions","abstract":"We study a model where households are subject to uninsurable unemployment risk, price setting is subject to nominal rigidities, and the labor market is characterized by matching frictions and inflexible wages. Higher risk of job loss and worsening job finding prospects during unemployment depress goods demand because of a precautionary savings motive. Lower goods demand reduces job vacancies and the job finding rate producing an amplification mechanism due to endogenous countercyclical income risk. Amplification derives from the combination of incomplete financial markets and frictional goods and labor markets. The model can account for key features of the Great Recession.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Morten O. Ravn","Vincent Sterk"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.07.003","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fa30244e8936e2f3","title":"The Long-Term Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Children’s Education and Employment Outcomes","abstract":"Using 4 decades of variation in the federal and state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), we estimate the impact of exposure to EITC expansions in childhood on education and employment outcomes in adulthood. Reduced-form results suggest that an additional $1,000 in EITC exposure when a child is 13–18 years old increases the likelihood of completing high school (1.3%), completing college (4.2%), and being employed as a young adult (1.0%) and earnings by 2.2%. Our analysis reveals that the primary channel through which the EITC improves these outcomes is increases in pretax family earnings.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Jacob Bastian","Katherine Michelmore"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/697477","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fa314ee5a01a8cde","title":"Competing data intermediaries","abstract":"I study a model of competition between data intermediaries, which collect personal data from consumers and sell them to downstream firms. Competition has a limited impact on benefiting consumers: If intermediaries offer high compensation for data, consumers share data with multiple intermediaries, which lowers the downstream price of data and hurts intermediaries. Anticipating this, intermediaries offer low compensation for data. Although consumers are exclusive suppliers of data, the nonrivalry of data can lead to concentration and high intermediary profits in data markets. In particular, if downstream firms use data to extract surplus from consumers, competing intermediaries sustain a monopoly outcome.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Shota Ichihashi"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12382","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fa57dcc831a98652","title":"Unveiling the impact and mechanism of agricultural input allocation on the income mobility of rural households: Evidence from China","abstract":"Income mobility is crucial in dismantling social stratification and fostering social integration. Facilitated by a balanced panel dataset comprising 792 rural households from 1986 to 2020 in Sichuan province, China, this study seeks to assess the impact of agricultural input allocation on rural households' income mobility. A multi-level differentiated polarization index is constructed to capture the dynamic characteristics of farmers' income polarization. Shapley value decomposition is used to breakdown farmers' income polarization index according to the source of income. Based on these, panel data econometric modelling is further utilized to answer the research question. It is found that optimal allocation of agricultural inputs fosters income mobility and mitigates income polarization. Misallocation in agricultural inputs, especially labour and intermediate products, substantially elevate the income polarization level for about one third of rural households. However, mediation analysis reveals that the surge in off-farm employment alters the income mobility structure by shifting the source of income polarization from agricultural income to off-farm income. Elevating the proportion of off-farm employment among rural households and accelerating agricultural socialization services can therefore help optimize agricultural input allocation and facilitate income class upgrades among rural households.","wordCount":189,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Yun Shen","Di Zeng","Alec Zuo"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102356","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fa5ceb32b2300abe","title":"Redistribution and beliefs about the source of income inequality","abstract":"Previous literature demonstrates that beliefs about the determinants of income inequality play a major role in individual support for income redistribution. This study investigates how people form beliefs regarding the extent to which work versus luck determines income inequality. Specifically, I examine whether people form self-serving beliefs to justify supporting personally advantageous redistributive policies. I use a laboratory experiment where I directly measure beliefs and manipulate the incentives to engage in self-deception. I first replicate earlier results demonstrating that (1) people attribute income inequality to work when they receive a high income and to luck when they receive a low income and (2) their beliefs about the source of income inequality influence their preferences over redistributive policies. However, I do not find that people's beliefs about the causes of income inequality are further influenced by self-serving motivations based on a desire to justify favorable redistributive policies. I conclude that, in my experiment, self-serving beliefs about the causes of income inequality are driven primarily by overconfidence and self-image concerns and not to justify favorable redistributive policies. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10683-021-09733-8.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Vanessa Valero"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09733-8","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fa6d213c2b7ced70","title":"The information value of M&A press releases","abstract":"How do managers comment on merger transactions? By analyzing the initial public announcements of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) from 1995 through 2020 and extracting the linguistic sentiment from statements made by managers of target and acquirer firms, we provide new evidence on the informational value of M&A disclosures. We find that positive sentiment by the target firm results in positive returns for the target. However, when the target firm disagrees with the sentiment of the acquirer, this results in lower returns for the target. Further, when the target displays positive sentiment, this increases the likelihood of merger completion and shortens the time to completion of the deal. We decompose acquirer sentiment into manipulative and fundamental components and demonstrate that acquirer CEOs with low confidence produce M&A statements that are more manipulative. This suggests that, while sentiment in M&A disclosures contains information about fundamentals and managerial attitudes, it can be manipulated to protect the personal interests of managers.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Yang Cao","Florian Kiesel","Henry Leung"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102465","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fa760bfb3a33c443","title":"Patent citations reexamined","abstract":"Many studies rely on patent citations to measure intellectual heritage and impact. In this article, we show that the nature of patent citations has changed dramatically in recent years. Today, a small minority of patent applications are generating a large majority of patent citations, and the mean technological similarity between citing and cited patents has fallen considerably. We replicate several well‐known studies in industrial organization and innovation economics and demonstrate how generalized assumptions about the nature of patent citations have misled the field.","wordCount":83,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Jeffrey M. Kuhn","Kenneth Younge","Alan C. Marco"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12307","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fab65fa6d079c54c","title":"The effects of LCC subsidies on the tourism industry","abstract":"Counterfactual analyses show that centralized subsidy policy dominates a sub national decentralized regime This paper studies the relationship between aviation, tourist flows, and subsidies to Low–Cost Carriers (LCCs), a policy tool used by many national and local governments to stimulate tourist arrivals. To evaluate this policy’s impact, we estimate a two–stage empirical model. In the first stage, we estimate a structural model applied to air transport; in the second stage, we estimate the link between passenger flows and regional tourism flows. In this way, we use exogenous aviation shocks (subsidies to LCCs) to analyze the causal effect on tourist arrivals. This model is estimated using data on aviation and tourist flows from European to Italian regions during 2016–2018. Counterfactual analyses consider different regimes for implementing the policy, i.e., a subsidy adopted by a benevolent central planner and/or by subnational institutions. Our simulations show that subsidies to LCCs are effective in stimulating tourism and that a centralized regime is more effective than a decentralized one. In fact, the latter generates externalities in regions that do not implement the subsidy, making the decentralized policy economically suboptimal.","wordCount":184,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Christian Bontemps","Gianmaria Martini","Flavio Porta"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2025.103242","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fab7338b70c213f4","title":"The contributions of betas versus characteristics to the ESG premium","abstract":"Firms that score high on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators exhibit lower expected returns. This negative ESG premium might be driven by the lower risk associated with high ESG scores (betas), or it could signal investors’ preferences for firms with high ESG scores (characteristics). We show that ESG as a characteristic mainly drives the premium. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the ESG characteristic is associated with a decrease in expected returns of 2.73% annually. In addition, the ESG characteristic explains a higher proportion of the cross-sectional variation in expected returns compared to ESG betas. We further caution for the presence of an ESG bias within the ESG premium that is due to positive realized returns preceding lower long-term expected returns. When correcting our estimates for the ESG bias the decrease in expected returns turns out to be 3.41% on an annual basis. The ESG bias correction, together with a firm-level methodology, can help clarify the mixed findings documented in the literature.","wordCount":164,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Rocco Ciciretti","Ambrogio Dalò","Lammertjan Dam"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","Q","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.01.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fabe6dd19686f895","title":"Easing the constraints of motherhood: The effects of all‐day schools on mothers' labor supply","abstract":"Low rates of female labor force participation (LFP) have been linked to the absence of childcare policies. This article examines the degree to which extending the school day by 3.5 hours in elementary schools, a large implicit childcare subsidy, affects LFP, the number of weekly hours worked, and the monthly earnings of females with elementary‐school‐age children. To do so, we exploit within‐individual variation in access to full‐time schools and a rotating panel of households that contains 12 years of individual‐level data on labor outcomes and sociodemographic characteristics. Results from long‐difference models show that extending the school day increases mothers' labor supply, increasing LFP by 5.5 percentage points and the number of weekly hours worked by 1.8. Moreover, these increases are accompanied by a raise in monthly earnings.","wordCount":127,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["María Padilla‐Romo","Francisco Cabrera‐Hernández"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12740","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fac5f78f7faa1bc0","title":"Group behaviour in tacit coordination games with focal points – an experimental investigation","abstract":"This paper reports an experimental investigation of Schelling's theory of focal points that compares group and individual behaviour. We find that, when players' interests are perfectly aligned, groups more often choose the salient option and achieve higher coordination success than individuals. However, in games with conflicts of interest, groups do not always perform better than individuals, especially when the degree of conflict is substantial. We also find that groups outperform individuals when identifying the solution to the coordination problem requires some level of cognitive sophistication. Finally, players that successfully identify the solution to this game also achieve greater coordination rates than other players in games with a low degree of conflict. This result raises the question of whether finding the focal point is more a matter of logic rather than imagination as Schelling argued.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Stefania Sitzia","Jiwei Zheng"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.08.001","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fac737b15b7c8183","title":"The Role of Ideology in Judicial Evaluations of Experts","abstract":"I provide a test of the legal realist theory of judicial behavior, which posits that judges’ ideology impacts their legal decisions but that the law constrains the judges’ ability to exercise those preferences. Two competing theories, legal skepticism and formalism, posit that the law either provides a minimal constraint on judges’ preferences or allows only minimal discretion by judges. The difficulty in testing these theories is a lack of data on the legal constraints judges face. I examine Daubert/Rule 702 rulings to exclude scientific testimony by plaintiffs’ experts in a series of lawsuits. Because I have multiple observations across experts, I can give each expert a fixed effect, which removes any constant features of the expert’s testimony. Even after controlling for law, I find robust evidence that ideology plays an important role in the decision to [grant] motion to exclude a witness.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Eric Helland"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/705838","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fae051704659e419","title":"How does stock market volatility react to oil price shocks?","abstract":"We study the impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market volatility. We jointly analyze three different structural oil market shocks (i.e., aggregate demand, oil supply, and oil-specific demand shocks) and stock market volatility using a structural vector autoregressive model. Identification is achieved by assuming that the price of crude oil reacts to stock market volatility only with delay. This implies that innovations to the price of crude oil are not strictly exogenous, but predetermined with respect to the stock market. We show that volatility responds significantly to oil price shocks caused by unexpected changes in aggregate and oil-specific demand, whereas the impact of supply-side shocks is negligible.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Andrea Bastianin","Matteo Manera"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000353","license":"cc0"},{"id":"public-faf48a60b78d1e90","title":"The environmental-financial nexus: Centralized environmental monitoring, eco-consciousness, and green revenues","abstract":"Amid tightening environmental governance, we examine whether and how firms’ eco-consciousness leads to a harmonious balance between environmental and economic performance in the form of green revenues. We utilize China's centralization of environmental monitoring in 2015 as the basis for a difference-in-differences methodology, using highly and less eco-conscious firms as the treatment and control groups. We find that relative to less eco-conscious firms, highly eco-conscious firms derive greater green revenues post-centralization. This finding is robust to underlying firm characteristics and unobservable industry- and time-specific heterogeneity. Regional internet infrastructure development and corporate greenwashing mitigation facilitate the effect on highly eco-conscious firms’ green revenues, suggesting that effective centralized monitoring relies on an integrated information transmission network and an improvement in firms’ genuine environmental accountability. Overall, eco-consciousness facilitates a win-win scenario between environmental and economic performance under an increasingly strict environmental regulatory landscape.","wordCount":140,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["June Cao","Zijie Huang","Millie Liew"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106929","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fafd44dceb8742fb","title":"Risk, time pressure, and selection effects","abstract":"Time pressure is a central aspect of economic decision making nowadays. It is therefore natural to ask how time pressure affects decisions, and how to detect individual heterogeneity in the ability to successfully cope with time pressure. In the context of risky decisions, we ask whether a person’s performance under time pressure can be predicted by measurable behavior and traits, and whether such measurement itself may be affected by selection issues. We find that the ability to cope with time pressure varies significantly across decision makers, leading to selected subgroups that differ in terms of their observed behaviors and personal traits. Moreover, measures of cognitive ability and intellectual efficiency jointly predict individuals’ decision quality and ability to keep their decision strategy under time pressure.","wordCount":124,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Martin G. Kocher","David Schindler","Stefan T. Trautmann","Yilong Xu"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9576-1","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fafef7b219a9963c","title":"Pandemic payment patterns","abstract":"COVID-19 has temporarily changed the relative costs and benefits of different payment methods: cash has become more costly in terms of health risks, ease of use and likelihood of acceptance, whereas debit card usage has become less costly. As a result, consumers have shifted away from cash. Based on unique daily payment diary survey data collected between January 2018 and December 2021 amongst a representative panel of Dutch consumers, we study the shift in payment behaviour and payment preferences during two lockdown periods in the Netherlands in 2020 and 2021. Since the start of the first lockdown the likelihood of debit card usage at the expense of cash has increased by 12 percentage points compared to its trend level. About 60 percent of this shift on top of the autonomous trend persisted several months after the end of the first lockdown and part of it has persisted several months after the end of the second lockdown. The results indicate that the pandemic accelerated the increased usage of debit card at the POS, especially during the first pandemic year. Also, the pandemic has resulted in a shift in payment preferences towards more contactless payments. Both effects are largest for elderly people.","wordCount":200,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Nicole Jonker","Carin van der Cruijsen","Michiel Bijlsma","Wilko Bolt"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","I","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106593","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fb07aa59007d2fd7","title":"Forest dependence is more than forest income: Development of a new index of forest product collection and livelihood resources","abstract":"Across the tropics, in both forested and agricultural landscapes, many households are highly dependent on forest resources. Small-holder farmers, many with few alternatives, collect fuelwood, building materials, wild foods, medicinal plants, and other forest products for subsistence or sale. Given continued tropical forest loss coupled with household forest dependence, quantifying levels of forest dependence is important for informing approaches to poverty alleviation and forest conservation. Forest dependence is largely measured using a relative forest income (RFI) approach, notably in the global analysis by the Poverty Environment Network of the Center for International Forestry Research. This approach ascribes monetary values to forest products, which may be unsuitable for contexts where households primarily consume rather than sell forest goods, and which does not address other burdens on households of relying on forest products (e.g., time use). In this paper, we introduce a new Forest Dependence Index (FDI), which measures (at the household level) forest products collected, effort involved in forest product collection, asset-based relative wealth, and non-forest livelihood strategies. Using a case study in Malawi, a country with high rates of poverty and forest ecosystem change, we: 1) demonstrate the FDI and its application; 2) compare the FDI to RFI; and 3) assess how the sub-indices contribute nuance to the FDI values. We calculate the FDI for agricultural communities in southern Malawi using household surveys that we conducted on income, assets and use of all forest products (e.g., amounts collected, walking time to collection sites). We show that the majority of households had intermediate FDI but low RFI values. We demonstrate how households can have the same RFI yet varying FDI values. Ultimately, we show that the FDI provides insight into multiple livelihood aspects of dependence and is a valuable addition to the RFI method for informing forest-based poverty alleviation strategies.","wordCount":299,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Lauren Nerfa","Jeanine M. Rhemtulla","Hisham Zerriffi"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104689","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fb10680472003f83","title":"The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia","abstract":"We study the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 on the allocation of scarce resources in the hospital sector in Scandinavia. Denmark and Norway imposed strict NPIs, but Sweden followed an extraordinarily lenient approach. We use an event study to compare COVID-19 hospitalizations, intensive-care (ICU) patients, and deaths in Sweden with Denmark and Norway. The outcome variables initially follow a common trend, but diverge 2-3 weeks after lockdown. Both the timing of the effect and the similarity in the trend between Denmark and Norway are highly consistent with a causal effect of the lockdown. We use our event study to build a counterfactual model that predicts the outcome variables for Denmark and Norway if they had followed Sweden's approach. In the absence of strict NPIs, the peak number of hospitalizations would have been 2.5 (3.5) times as large in Denmark (Norway). Overall, Denmark (Norway) would have had 334 (671) percent more hospital-patient days, 277 (379) percent more ICU-patient days, and 402 (1015) percent more deaths. The benefit of lockdown in terms of healthcare and mortality costs amounts to between 1 and 4 (0.9 and 3.5) percent of GDP in Denmark (Norway).","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Steffen Juranek","Floris Zoutman"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00868-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fb1e50bbcfb375ce","title":"Interactions Across Firms and Bid Rigging","abstract":"We evaluate whether an econometric technique that is used in the spatial econometrics and network effects literatures can be adopted as a test for collusive bidding in public procurement auctions. The proposed method is applied to the Swedish asphalt cartel that was discovered in 2001. Our dataset covers the period 1995–2009, which makes it possible to test for conditional independence between complementary cartel bids before and after 2001. Our estimates show a significant positive correlation between complementary cartel bids during the cartel period, whereas a non-significant correlation is shown during the later period. The variance of the parameter estimate of interest also differs between the periods, which suggests a structural change in bidding behavior among cartel members between the two periods.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Mats Bergman","Johan Lundberg","Sofia Lundberg","Johan Y. Stake"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-018-09676-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fb20865cb14f866c","title":"The Impact of Inequality and Redistribution on Growth","abstract":"In this paper, we reassess the impact of inequality on growth. The majority of previous papers have employed (system) GMM estimation. However, recent simulation studies indicate that the problems of GMM when using non‐stationary data such as GDP have been grossly underestimated in applied research. Concerning predetermined regressors such as inequality, GMM is outperformed by a simple least‐squares dummy variable estimator. Additionally, new data have recently become available that not only double the sample size compared to most previous studies, but also address the substantial measurement issues that have plagued past research. Using these new data and an LSDV estimator, we provide an analysis that both accounts for the conditions where inequality is beneficial or detrimental to growth and distinguishes between market‐driven inequality and redistribution. We show that there are situations where market inequality affects growth positively while redistribution is simultaneously beneficial.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Makram El‐Shagi","Liang Shao"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12342","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fb38e466ad869cc4","title":"Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain","abstract":"This paper explores whether unconventional monetary policy operations have redistributive effects on household wealth. Drawing on household balance sheet data from the Wealth and Asset Survey, we construct monthly time series indicators on the distribution of different asset types held by British households for the period that the monetary policy switched, as the policy rate reached the zero‐lower bound. Using this series, we estimate the response of wealth inequalities on monetary policy, taking into account the effect of unconventional policies conducted by the Bank of England in response to the Global Financial Crisis. Our evidence reveals that unconventional monetary policy shocks have significant and lingering effects on wealth inequality: the shock raises wealth inequality across households, as measured by their Gini coefficients, percentile shares and other standard inequality indicators. Additionally, we explore the effects of different transmission channels simultaneously. We find that the portfolio rebalancing channel and house price effects widen the wealth gap, outweighing the counterbalancing impact of the savings redistribution and inflation channels. The findings of our analysis help to raise awareness of central bankers about the redistributive effects of their monetary policy decisions.","wordCount":186,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Anastasios Evgenidis","Apostolos Fasianos"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12397","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fb5286e09dfee018","title":"Endogenous product adjustment and exchange rate pass-through","abstract":"We document how product quality responds to exchange rate movements and quantify the extent to which these quality changes affect the aggregate pass-through into export prices. We analyze the substantial sudden appreciation of the Swiss franc post removal of the 1.20-CHF-per-euro lower bound in 2015 using export data representing a large share of the universe of goods exports from Switzerland. We find that firms upgrade the quality of their products after the appreciation. Furthermore, they disproportionately remove lower-quality products from their product ranges. This quality upgrading and quality sorting effect accounts for a substantial share of the total pass-through one year after the appreciation. We cross-check our results with the microdata underlying the Swiss export price index, which includes an adjustment factor for quality based on firms' reported product replacements, and obtain similar results.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Andreas Freitag","Sarah M. Lein"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103706","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fb53cd1285c6b5f9","title":"Performance feedback in competitive product development","abstract":"Performance feedback is ubiquitous in competitive settings where new products are developed. This article introduces a fundamental tension between incentives and improvement in the provision of feedback. Using a sample of 4294 commercial logo design tournaments, I show that feedback reduces participation but improves the quality of subsequent submissions, with an ambiguous effect on high‐quality output. To evaluate this trade‐off, I develop a procedure to estimate agents' effort costs and simulate counterfactuals under alternative feedback policies. The results suggest that feedback on net increases the number of high‐quality ideas produced and is thus desirable for a principal seeking innovation.","wordCount":99,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Daniel P. Gross"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12182","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fb581bc2ec9b5446","title":"Sustainable Development in Europe: A Multicriteria Decision Analysis","abstract":"This paper proposes a novel approach to evaluate European countries on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) by means of Hierarchical Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (HSMAA). HSMAA produces rankings with Monte Carlo generation of weights, overcoming the need to choose one specific set of weights. The main contribution of this paper lies in the possibility of quantifying the probability by which each country receives a given ranking. Furthermore, HSMAA allows to take into account the hierarchical nature of SDG measurement given that each of the 17 Goals also consists of several indicators. Our results show that Denmark outperforms other European countries, while lower levels of performance are observed in Romania and Bulgaria. In between bottom and top performers, we also find that many countries’ rankings vary widely by the chosen set of weights, exemplifying the need to rank countries based on multiple weightings and to quantify the probabilities of each ranking.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Giuliano Resce","Fritz Schiltz"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12475","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fb724e3e3f7d33ce","title":"Optimal contracts with a risk‐taking agent","abstract":"Consider an agent who can costlessly add mean‐preserving noise to his output. To deter such risk‐taking, the principal optimally offers a contract that makes the agent's utility concave in output. If the agent is risk‐neutral and protected by limited liability, this concavity constraint binds and so linear contracts maximize profit. If the agent is risk averse, the concavity constraint might bind for some outputs but not others. We characterize the unique profit‐maximizing contract and show how deterring risk‐taking affects the insurance‐incentive trade‐off. Our logic extends to costly risk‐taking and to dynamic settings where the agent can shift output over time.","wordCount":100,"journal":"Theoretical Economics","authors":["Daniel Barron","George Georgiadis","Jeroen M. Swinkels"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/te3660","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-fb7b6f2641233f97","title":"Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA","abstract":"Using U.S. Census data for 1990 to 2000, we estimate effects of NAFTAon U.S.wages.We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with imports). These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfare effects estimated by other authors.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Shushanik Hakobyan","John McLaren"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","H","R"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00587","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fb87519c662a7064","title":"Racial Sorting and the Emergence of Segregation in American Cities","abstract":"Residential segregation by race grew sharply during the early twentieth century as black migrants from the South arrived in northern cities. Using newly assembled neighborhood-level data, we provide the first systematic evidence on the impact of prewar population dynamics within cities on the emergence of the American ghetto. Leveraging exogenous changes in neighborhood racial composition, we show that white flight in response to black arrivals was quantitatively large and accelerated between 1900 and 1930. A key implication of our findings is that segregation could have arisen solely from the flight behavior of whites.","wordCount":93,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Allison Shertzer","Randall Walsh"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00786","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fb9661fd001a9973","title":"Personal norms — and not only social norms — shape economic behavior","abstract":"We propose a simple utility framework and design a novel two-part experiment to study the relevance of personal norms across various economic games and settings. We show that personal norms — together with social norms and monetary payoff — are highly predictive of individuals’ behavior. Moreover, they are: (i) distinct from social norms across a series of economic contexts; (ii) robust to an exogenous increase in the salience of social norms; and (iii) complementary to social norms in predicting behavior. Our findings support personal norms as a key driver of economic behavior.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Zvonimir Bašić","Eugenio Verrina"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105255","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fb99b2f67094208b","title":"Productivity performance, distance to frontier and AI innovation: Firm-level evidence from Europe","abstract":"Using firm-level data from 15 European countries between 2011 and 2019, this paper examines the productivity effect associated with the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), measured by patenting success in AI fields. By making advances in AI and expanding on their knowledge base, companies can optimise production tasks, and improve resource utilisation, ultimately leading to higher levels of efficiency. To investigate this, we develop a two-fold panel regression analysis estimated within a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework. First, we investigate whether firms that engage in AI innovation experience a productivity boost after developing the new technology, compared to similar firms which do not undertake AI innovation. To analyse this, we employ a novel event-analysis methodology that quantifies the effect of the treatment (AI innovation) on firm performance (productivity) using a Local Projections approach within the DiD setting. Second, we utilise a Distance-to-Frontier (DTF) regression framework in order to examine whether the productivity premium of AI is associated with a firm’s ability to absorb knowledge and learn from the technologies developed by market leaders. Our findings reveal that the productivity gains directly associated with AI are statistically significant and quantitatively important, ranging between 6.2 and 17% in the event analysis, and between 2.1 and 6% in the DTF framework. We also provide some evidence that the productivity benefits of AI might be greater for those firms further away from the frontier (between 0.3 and 0.7%). Our research demonstrates that Artificial Intelligence can play a crucial role in enhancing firm productivity in Europe, a result that is evident even in these early stages of the technology’s life cycle.","wordCount":264,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Larissa da Silva Marioni","Ana Rincón-Aznar","Francesco Venturini"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106762","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fba2f7912fd3c459","title":"Noise pollution and violent crime☆","abstract":"This paper reveals how exposure to noise pollution increases violent crime. To identify the causal effect of noise pollution, I use daily variation in aircraft landing approaches to instrument noise levels. Increasing background noise by 4.1 decibels causes a 6.6% increase in the violent crime rate. The additional crimes mostly consist of physical assaults on men. The results imply a substantial societal burden from noise pollution beyond health impacts.","wordCount":69,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Timo Hener"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104748","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fba4bf5521fb3638","title":"Gender and other moderators of giving in the dictator game: A meta-analysis","abstract":"Meta-analysis techniques are used to analyse behaviour in a set of 136 experimental dictator game conditions. The aim is to find the motivating factors of dictators’ generosity under diverse experimental treatments. For that purpose, a specific meta-analysis is performed on gender differences in giving decisions. It is found that gender differences exist, being women on average significantly more generous than men, even if controlling for several moderator variables that are included in the study. The gender effect may change over several experimental conditions and locations. On the one hand, women are more generous than men for moderate and large social distance, while they are less generous than men when playing with close friends or family members. On the other hand, women give more than men in South America, North America and Oceania, while they give less than men in South Africa. The location seems to play an important role in the overall dictators' behaviour. A general result is that, compared to the baseline, women change their behaviour significantly more than men when they are exposed to any experimental condition.","wordCount":179,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Anabel Doñate-Buendía","Aurora Garcı́a-Gallego","Marko Petrović"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.03.031","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fbac3ea0bc5e9e83","title":"Dynamic competition with network externalities: how history matters","abstract":"We consider dynamic competition among platforms in a market with network externalities. A platform that dominated the market in the previous period becomes “focal” in the current period, in that agents play the equilibrium in which they join the focal platform whenever such equilibrium exists. Yet when faced with higher‐quality competition, can a low‐quality platform remain focal? In the finite‐horizon case, the unique equilibrium is efficient for “patient” platforms; with an infinite time horizon, however, there are multiple equilibria where either the low‐ or high‐quality platform dominates. If qualities are stochastic, the platform with a better average quality wins with a higher probability, even when its realized quality is lower, and this probability increases as platforms become more patient. Hence, social welfare may decline as platforms become more forward looking.","wordCount":130,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Hanna Hałaburda","Bruno Jullien","Yaron Yehezkel"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","O","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12304","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fbad373abcdca169","title":"Micro Data and Macro Technology","abstract":"We develop a framework to estimate the aggregate capital‐labor elasticity of substitution by aggregating the actions of individual plants. The aggregate elasticity reflects substitution within plants and reallocation across plants; the extent of heterogeneity in capital intensities determines their relative importance. We use micro data on the cross‐section of plants to build up to the aggregate elasticity at a point in time. Interpreting our econometric estimates through the lens of several different models, we find that the aggregate elasticity for the U.S. manufacturing sector is in the range of 0.5–0.7, and has declined slightly since 1970. We use our estimates to measure the bias of technical change and assess the decline in labor's share of income in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Mechanisms that rely on changes in the relative supply of factors, such as an acceleration of capital accumulation, cannot account for the decline.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Ezra Oberfield","Devesh Raval"],"year":2021,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","D","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta12807","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fbae6a4026dc55d2","title":"Uncertainty, credit and investment: Evidence from firm-bank matched data","abstract":"This paper studies how high uncertainty affects corporate bank loans, addressing the important issue of identification. In times of high uncertainty, firms reduce their credit demand due to delayed investments or a deterioration in credit worthiness. Simultaneously, banks are more exposed to negative shocks to their balance sheet, reducing credit supply. To isolate the uncertainty effect from the credit supply effect, we employ matched bank-firm loan data covering all loans extended by all financial intermediaries to listed firms in Korea, a bank-centered economy. Our empirical results reveal that a failure to control for credit supply leads to overestimating the effect of uncertainty on bank loans. In terms of the transmission channel of uncertainty, we find the evidence of both the real option channel and the financial channel: the negative effect is stronger for firms with a higher degree of investment irreversibility and financially constrained firms. In addition, our findings suggest that larger firms may be predominantly affected by uncertainty shocks through the real option channel rather than the financial channel. In addition, our empirical findings on firm investments align with those on bank loans.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["Youngju Kim","Seohyun Lee","Hyunjoon Lim"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106974","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fbc146f7c745937b","title":"Bargaining under time pressure from deadlines","abstract":"We experimentally investigate the effect of time pressure from deadlines in a rich-context bargaining game with an induced reference point at the 2/3-1/3 distribution. Our results show that first proposals, concessions, and settlements are very similar for different time-pressure levels. Nevertheless, time pressure systematically influences the type of agreements reached: the likelihood of bargainers reaching agreements on the equal split is lower under time pressure. Furthermore, disagreements and last-moment-agreements (conditional on reaching an agreement) are more frequently observed under time pressure, though the effect on last-moment agreements disappears when disagreements are included in the analysis. Finally, the effect of time-pressure on the frequency of disagreements is stronger for those pairs with higher tension in first proposals.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Experimental Economics","authors":["Emin Karagözoğlu","Martin G. Kocher"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9579-y","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fbccc17a5316ecc6","title":"Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management","abstract":"We consider a model where investors can invest directly or search for an asset manager, information about assets is costly, and managers charge an endogenous fee. The efficiency of asset prices is linked to the efficiency of the asset management market: if investors can find managers more easily, more money is allocated to active management, fees are lower, and asset prices are more efficient. Informed managers outperform after fees, uninformed managers underperform, while the average manager's performance depends on the number of “noise allocators.” Small investors should remain uninformed, but large and sophisticated investors benefit from searching for informed active managers since their search cost is low relative to capital. Hence, managers with larger and more sophisticated investors are expected to outperform.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Journal of Finance","authors":["Nicolae Gârleanu","Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12696","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-fbe92bd90512af2d","title":"Viewpoint: Climate impacts on agriculture: Searching for keys under the streetlight","abstract":"This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as for purchased intermediate inputs. Largely overlooked is the impact of climate change on the rate of total factor productivity growth and the potential for more rapid depreciation of the underlying knowledge capital underpinning this key driver of agricultural output growth. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare. Of particular significance is the finding that humans in the humid tropics are likely more vulnerable to heat stress than are many of the well-adapted crops, such as rice. By omitting the impact of heat stress on humans, most studies of climate impacts greatly understate the welfare losses in the world’s poorest economies.","wordCount":274,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Thomas W. Hertel","Cicero Zanetti De Lima"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101954","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fbf390f6b8afd56c","title":"Best policy response to environmental shocks: Applying a stochastic framework","abstract":"The paper develops a general framework for the analysis of environmental shocks in growing economies. Endogenous capital investments allow identifying the dual role of capital as a buffer against shocks and a source of pollution. We study the effects of recurring natural disasters on optimal growth and efficient environmental policies. Emissions may cause continuous fluctuations, entail discrete and recurring jumps, or trigger so-called “tipping points” with large costs to the economy. Closed-form solutions are provided for all the model variants. We discuss possible applications in environmental economics and identify current research gaps.","wordCount":92,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Lucas Bretschger","Alexandra Vinogradova"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.07.003","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fbf9b866d33c09b8","title":"The Local Labor Market Effect of Relaxing Internal Migration Restrictions: Evidence from China","abstract":"We study how a significant relaxation of internal migration restrictions affects labor market outcomes of incumbent migrants and natives, exploiting the 2014 hukou reform in China, which substantially removed the migration barriers of cities with an urban population below 5 million (nonmegacities). Using a difference-in-differences method, we find that migrants’ wages in nonmegacities experienced approximately a 2.6%–7.9% decline relative to that in megacities after the policy. The policy had nonnegative impacts on the wages of natives in nonmegacities. These results suggest that the downward wage pressure imposed by new migrants falls primarily on incumbent migrants rather than on natives.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Labor Economics","authors":["Lei An","Yu Qin","Jing Wu","Wei You"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","R","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722620","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fbfb2b6cbefcdf3a","title":"The Gender Wage Gap in Europe: Job Preferences, Gender Convergence and Distributional Effects","abstract":"The gender wage gap has declined over time. However, most of the remaining gap is unexplained, partly because of gender convergence in wage‐determining characteristics. In this paper, we show the degree of convergence differs substantially across Europe. In some countries, predominantly in Eastern Europe, the gender wage gap is entirely unexplained. However, in other countries, differences between the characteristics of men and women explain a relatively large proportion of the wage gap. Gender differences in job preferences contribute 10% to the wage gap, which is more than job tenure, previous employment status or field of study. The role of job preferences is particularly strong at the top of the wage distribution.","wordCount":111,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Paul Redmond","Séamus McGuinness"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12282","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fc1fa3acf91c6eaf","title":"Social norms or enforcement? A natural field experiment to improve traffic and parking fine compliance","abstract":"Very little is known about the efficient collection of fines despite their indispensable contribution to local government budgets. This paper fills an important gap in the literature by studying the effectiveness of deterrence (enforcement) and non-deterrence (social norms) letters that aim to improve the collection of traffic and parking fines. We present results from a natural field experiment implemented in collaboration with the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Government. We find that both letters increase fine payments significantly. The effect of the enforcement letter is stronger than that of the social norms letter. Our analysis of heterogenous treatment effects indicates that addressing social norms does not change the behavior of young offenders, those who committed a speeding offence, those with a long outstanding debt and those with a debt above the median. In contrast, the enforcement letter is generally effective across subgroups.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Mathias Sinning","Yinjunjie Zhang"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.03.029","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fc22d13ea5cf7f93","title":"Cash-on-Hand and College Enrollment: Evidence from Population Tax Data and the Earned Income Tax Credit","abstract":"We estimate causal effects of cash-on-hand on college enrollment decisions of students from low-income families. Using population-level, administrative data from US income tax returns, we exploit variation in tax refunds received in the spring of the high school senior year. The variation in tax refunds results from the kink point between the phase-in and maximum credit portions of the Earned Income Tax Credit schedule. The results suggest tax refunds received in the spring of the high school senior year have meaningful effects on college enrollment.","wordCount":85,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Day Manoli","Nicholas Turner"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160298","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fc2af45bed6b1ee5","title":"Income inequality and housing prices in the very long‐run","abstract":"We examine the relationship between income inequality and house prices for a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1870 to 2015. Our identification strategy takes advantage of exogenous variation in culturally weighted communist influence to instrument for within‐country variations in income inequality. Controlling for endogeneity, time, and country fixed effects, our results suggest that an increase in income inequality has a significant negative effect on real house prices. This finding is robust to the use of both the Gini coefficient and top income share as measures of income inequality and the use of absolute and relative income inequality measures, as well as a range of other robustness checks. We examine crime as a mechanism through which income inequality influences housing prices and find that the theft rate is a channel via which higher income inequality contributes to lower house prices.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Abebe Hailemariam","Sefa Awaworyi Churchill","Russell Smyth","Kingsley Tetteh Baako"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","H","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12520","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fc38c18b74ae7f58","title":"Tit-for-tat in antidumping: How did China fight its antidumping wars with its trading partners?","abstract":"Existing studies have examined the determinants of antidumping measures in different countries. Much less attention has been paid to the role of high-frequency bilateral relations in imposing temporary trade barriers. Using quarterly data on antidumping cases from 1997Q1 to 2020Q4, this paper examines the bilateral relationship between China and its major trading partners in imposing antidumping. A bivariate vector autoregressive methodology is employed and Granger causality tests are carried out. We find that antidumping investigations against China by the US significantly lead to and predict the investigations against the US by China, suggesting that the US is the first mover and China is the follower that retaliates. In contrast, in bilateral relations between China and the European Union, Korea , or Japan, there is no evidence of significant causality in either direction. Furthermore, we find that China retaliates against the US both within and across industries . While China’s retaliatory measures have shown some effectiveness in terminating outstanding US investigations, this is not always the case. However, this tit-for-tat behavior does effectively deter future investigations by the US.","wordCount":178,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Wonkyung Lee","Hong Ma","Yuan Xu"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","O"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.002","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fc4657bd304d8f9a","title":"Environmental protection tax and firms’ ESG investment: Evidence from China","abstract":"We examine whether and how environmental protection tax (EPT) affects environmental governance performance of firms. To address this problem, we first construct unique indicators to present the different environmental governance of firms in the aspect of E, S, and G, and then combine them with panel data of Chinese listed companies from 2013 to 2020. Through the empirical analysis, we find that EPT has a positive effect on the ESG investment of firms, and the positive effect is more pronounced in private firms, firms with weak competitiveness, and firms located in cities with sound environmental justice. We also find that the pressure on tax payment cost and ex-post non-compliance cost caused by EPT improves the ESG investment of firms. Overall, this paper emphasizes the importance of EPT in promoting the environmental governance of firms.","wordCount":134,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Xiaolin Wang","Yingying Ye"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106621","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fc4cfad8a9159be6","title":"Dynamic portfolio choice with frictions","abstract":"We show that the optimal portfolio can be derived explicitly in a large class of models with transitory and persistent transaction costs, multiple signals predicting returns, multiple assets, general correlation structure, time-varying volatility, and general dynamics. Our continuous-time model is shown to be the limit of discrete-time models with endogenous transaction costs due to op-timal dealer behavior. Depending on the dealers ’ inventory dynamics, we show that transitory transaction costs survive, respectively vanish, in the limit, cor-responding to an optimal portfolio with bounded, respectively quadratic, vari-ation. Finally, we provide equilibrium implications and illustrate the model’s broader applicability to economics. ∗We are grateful for helpful comments from Kerry Back, Darrell Duffie, Pierre Collin-Dufresne,","wordCount":112,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Nicolae Gârleanu","Lasse Heje Pedersen"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2016.06.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fc525274757e7441","title":"Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging","abstract":"Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50 percent) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35 percent). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers with lower incomes and housing wealth have significantly higher marginal propensity to consume. Areas with a larger share of ARMs were more responsive to lower interest rates and saw a relative decline in defaults and an increase in house prices, car purchases, and employment. Household balance sheets and mortgage contract rigidity are important for monetary policy pass-through.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Review","authors":["Marco Di Maggio","Amir Kermani","Benjamin J. Keys","Tomasz Piskorski","Rodney Ramcharan","Amit Seru","Vincent Yao"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141313","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fc6edb7d99b5679f","title":"The Productivity Costs of Inefficient Hiring Practices: Evidence From Late Teacher Hiring","abstract":"We use matched employee-employer records from the teacher labor market to explore the effects of late teacher hiring on student achievement. Hiring teachers after the school year starts reduces student achievement by 0.042SD in mathematics and 0.026SD in reading. This reflects, in part, a temporary disruption effect in the first year. In mathematics, but not in reading, late-hired teachers remain persistently less effective, evidence of negative selection in the teacher labor market. Late hiring concentrates in schools that disproportionately serve disadvantaged student populations, contributing to challenges in ensuring an equitable distribution of educational resources across students.","wordCount":96,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["John P. Papay","Matthew A. Kraft"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21930","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fc77a2a5e64b53cb","title":"Education choices and returns on the labor and marriage markets: Evidence from data on subjective expectations","abstract":"In this paper we analyze the role of expected labor and marriage market returns as determinants of the college enrollment decisions of Mexican high school graduates. Moreover, we investigate whether the (relative) weights of these factors differ by gender. We use data on individuals’ expectations regarding future labor market outcomes which we directly elicited from the youths, and two different measures of marriage market returns. First, marriage market returns are proxied by the (net-)supply of potential partners in the youths’ local marriage markets. Second, we use data which elicits youths’ beliefs about their future spouse's earnings conditional on their own education level. We find that labor market as well as marriage market returns are important determinants of the college enrollment decision. However, boys’ and girls’ preferences differ in terms of the relative role of the two determinants, in that the relative weight of labor market versus marriage market returns is larger for boys than for girls.","wordCount":156,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Orazio Attanasio","Katja Kaufmann"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.05.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fc7a516b669b8340","title":"Accounting for social security claiming behavior","abstract":"We study why Social Security benefit claiming is concentrated at two ages, 62 and the full retirement age, and provide three main findings. First, we show that claiming behavior can be well explained by a parsimonious life‐cycle model with fully rational agents. The two key mechanisms are (i) the strong unwillingness to hold annuities and (ii) the effects of the earnings test. Second, we show that current rules distort claiming and labor supply decisions, and eliminating these distortions results in large welfare gains. Finally, we show that claiming decisions can be used to sharpen the identification of important preference parameters.","wordCount":100,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Svetlana Pashchenko","Ponpoje Porapakkarm"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12658","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-fc7b5cfea55eb58f","title":"What is the effect of weather on household electricity consumption? Empirical evidence from Ireland","abstract":"We explore the links between weather variables and residential electricity consumption using high-resolution smart metering data. While weather factors have been used for grid-level electricity demand estimations, the impact of different weather conditions on individual households has not been fully addressed. The deployment of smart meters enables us to analyse weather effects in different periods of the day using hourly panel datasets, which would previously have been impossible. To conduct the analysis, fixed-effects models are employed on half-hourly electricity consumption data from 3827 Irish household meters. We demonstrate that temperature has robust and relatively flat effects on electricity demand across all periods, whereas rain and sunshine duration show greater potential to affect individual behaviour and daily routines. The models show that the most sensitive periods differ for each weather variable. We also test the responses to weather factors for weekends and workdays. Weather sensitivities vary with the day of the week, which might be caused by different household patterns over the course of the week. The methodology employed in this study could be instructive for improving understanding behavioural response in household energy consumption. By using only weather indicators, this approach can be quicker and simpler than traditional methods – such as surveys or questionnaires – in identifying the periods when households are more responsive.","wordCount":214,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Jieyi Kang","David Reiner"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106023","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fc7b917509e2575f","title":"Legal enforcement and fintech credit: International evidence","abstract":"Previous studies have shown that the quality of legal institutions is negatively associated with the interest rates of business loans. Fintech lending, with improved ex ante risk-sharing practices that change the approach to credit provision, presents a challenge to the traditional relationship between law and finance. Compiling and studying over five million fintech loans from 24 countries, we show that, in comparison to traditional bank loans, the quality of legal enforcement matters less to the cost of fintech credit. Nonetheless, the impact of legal protection on the interest rates of fintech credit is more persistent when (1) the loans bear higher risk, (2) the fintech platforms have fewer risk-sharing tools, and (3) borrowers’ jurisdictions have fewer information-sharing channels. Our study contributes to the debate on the role of legal protection in the fintech credit market.","wordCount":135,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Hongfeng Peng","Jiao Ji","Hanwen Sun","Haofeng Xu"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fc89b60aa068f099","title":"Two-Sided Heterogeneity and Trade","abstract":"This paper develops a multicountry model of international trade that provides a simple microfoundation for buyer-seller relationships in trade. We explore a rich data set that identifies buyers and sellers in trade and establish a set of basic facts that guide the development of the theoretical model. We use predictions of the model to examine the role of buyer heterogeneity in a market for firm-level adjustments to trade shocks, as well as to quantitatively evaluate how firms’ marginal costs depend on access to suppliers in foreign markets.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Andrew B. Bernard","Andreas Moxnes","Karen Helene Ulltveit‐Moe"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00721","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-fc8bde51a5d28db8","title":"Oil price shocks, inventories, and macroeconomic dynamics","abstract":"This paper investigates the time delay in the transmission of oil price shocks using disaggregated manufacturing data on inventories and sales. VAR estimates indicate that industry-level inventories and sales respond faster to an oil price shock than aggregate gross domestic product, especially in industries that are energy-intensive. In response to an unexpected oil price increase, sales drop and inventories are accumulated. This leads to future reductions in production. We estimate a modified linear–quadratic inventory model to inquire whether the patterns observed in the VAR impulse responses are consistent with rational behavior by the firms. Estimation results suggest that three mechanisms play a role in the industry-level dynamics. First, oil prices act as a negative demand shock. Second, the shock catches manufacturers by surprise, resulting in higher-than-anticipated inventories. Third, because of their desire to smooth production, manufacturers deviate from the target level of inventories and spread the decline in production over various quarters; hence the delay in the response of aggregate output.","wordCount":161,"journal":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":["Ana María Herrera"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000225","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fc8c34b4c28b2031","title":"Discrimination in healthcare: A field experiment with Pakistan's transgender community","abstract":"Transgender individuals face high levels of discrimination and bias. However, it is not clear how such biases result in different levels of care. Using an in-person audit-study, we randomize cisgender male and transgender standardized patient visits to low-cost private clinics in Pakistan. We detail out the entire process of obtaining healthcare. Results show that transgender patients are treated differently, but consistent with preservation of dignity. Physicians substitute in procedures that require less physical contact; are less likely to ask culturally sensitive questions; and are more likely to recommend different treatment plans. These practices yield lower quality of care, though they do not stem from overtly discriminatory practices. It is important to note two caveats. We work with a small sample and therefore our results are not always precise enough to be informative. Further, without cisgender female patients, our results are not always informative about discriminatory practices against transgender patients.","wordCount":149,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Husnain Ahmad","Sheheryar Banuri","Farasat A. S. Bokhari"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102490","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fc8fe052d6e848b9","title":"The 2023 Merger Guidelines: Law, Fact, and Method","abstract":"The final version of the 2023 Merger Guidelines, which were issued in December 2023, is a vast improvement over an earlier draft—which indicates that the Agencies took the many comments that they received on a draft very seriously. These Guidelines break some new ground that older Guidelines did not address, and make many positive contributions, which this paper spells out. They are also excessively nostalgic for a past era, however, and this may explain their propen sity to treat empirical questions as issues of law: This is one way to insulate these Guidelines from further revision. The excessive reliance on one decision, Brown Shoe , is unfortunate—particularly since that decision has been so often repudiated, even by the Supreme Court itself. This paper pays particular attention to: the Guidelines’ treatment of structural triggers and direct measures of competitive effects; their aggressive position on potential competition mergers; their willingness to weigh a “trend” toward concentration as a factor; and their treatment of serial acquisitions. The Guidelines include a welcome new section on mergers involving multi-sided networks, although their view of networks is too one-sided; and the Guidelines also contain an expanded section on mergers with harmful effects on suppliers—including labor. The Guidelines’ treatment of market definition is likely to lead to underenforcement because they define markets too broadly. Finally, the Guidelines could have made better use of recent retrospective studies—many of which would have provided further support for the substantive positions that the Guidelines take.","wordCount":244,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Herbert Hovenkamp"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09963-z","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fc941db9ab192883","title":"Wage Growth, Landholding, and Mechanization in Chinese Agriculture","abstract":"This paper aims to examine the dynamics of land transactions, machine investments, and the demand for machine services using farm panel data from China. Recently, China's agriculture has experienced a large expansion of machine rentals and machine services provided by specialized agents, which has contributed to mechanization of agricultural production. On the other hand, the empirical results show that an increase in non-agricultural wage rates leads to expansion of self-cultivated land size. A rise in the proportion of non-agricultural income or the migration rate also increases the size of self-cultivated land. Interestingly, however, relatively educated farm households decrease the size of self-cultivated land, which suggests that relatively less educated farmers tend to specialize in farming. The demand for machine services has also increased if agricultural wage and migration rate increased over time, especially among relatively large farms. The results on crop income also support complementarities between rented-in land and machine services (demanded), which implies that scale economies are arising in Chinese agriculture with mechanization and active land rental markets.","wordCount":169,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Xiaobing Wang","Futoshi Yamauchi","Keijiro Otsuka","Jikun Huang"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.05.002","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fcada2c5471d86bb","title":"The Gender Wealth Gap in Europe: Application of Machine Learning to Predict Individual‐level Wealth","abstract":"This article provides comparative estimates of the gender wealth gaps for 22 European countries, employing data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The data on wealth are collected at the household level, while individual‐level data are needed for the estimates of gender wealth gaps. We propose a novel approach using machine learning and model averaging methods to predict individual‐level wealth data for multi‐person households. Our results suggest that random forest performs best as the predicting tool for this exercise, outperforming elastic net and Bayesian model averaging. The estimated gender wealth gaps tend to be in favor of men, especially at the top of the wealth distribution. Men have 24 percent more wealth than women on average. We also find that a high home ownership rate is associated with a smaller country‐level gender wealth gap. Our estimates suggest that the individual‐level wealth inequality is on average 3 pp higher than the household‐level wealth inequality in multi‐member households.","wordCount":157,"journal":"Review of Income and Wealth","authors":["Merike Kukk","Jaanika Meriküll","Tairi Rõõm"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12596","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fcb4b0c1b7449ea0","title":"The contribution of infrastructure investment to Britain's urban mortality decline, 1861–1900","abstract":"It is well‐recognized that both improved nutrition and sanitation infrastructure are important contributors to mortality decline. However, the relative importance of the two factors is difficult to quantify since most studies are limited to testing the effects of specific sanitary improvements. This article uses new historical data regarding total investment in urban infrastructure, measured using the outstanding loan stock, to estimate the extent to which the mortality decline in England and Wales between 1861 and 1900 can be attributed to government expenditure. Fixed effects regressions indicate that infrastructure investment explains approximately 30 per cent of the decline in mortality between 1861 and 1900. Since these specifications may not fully account for the endogeneity between investment and mortality, additional specifications are estimated using lagged investment as an instrument for current investment. These estimates suggest that government investment was the major contributor to mortality decline, explaining up to 60 per cent of the reduction in total urban mortality between 1861 and 1900. Additional results indicate that investment in urban infrastructure led to declines in mortality from both waterborne and airborne diseases.","wordCount":179,"journal":"The Economic History Review","authors":["Jonathan Chapman"],"year":2018,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12699","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fcc02926fc9d0031","title":"The gender gap in top jobs – The role of overconfidence","abstract":"There is a large gender gap in the probability of being in a “top job” in mid-career. Top jobs bring higher earnings, and also have more job security and better career trajectories. Recent literature has raised the possibility that some of this gap may be attributable to women not “leaning in” while men are more overconfident in their abilities. We use longitudinal data from childhood into mid-career and construct a measure of overconfidence using multiple measures of objective cognitive ability and subjective estimated ability. Our measure confirms previous findings that men are more overconfident than women. We then use linear regression and decomposition techniques to account for the gender gap in top jobs including our measure of overconfidence. Our results show that men being more overconfident explains 5–11 percent of the gender gap in top job employment. This indicates that while overconfidence matters for gender inequality in the labor market and has implications for how firms recruit and promote workers, other individual, structural, and societal factors play a larger role.","wordCount":170,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Anna Adamecz-Völgyi","Nikki Shure"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102283","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fcc9502d20851dea","title":"European highway networks, transportation costs, and regional income","abstract":"To what extent do highways increase income in the European Union? To answer the question, this paper uses detailed data on the expansion of highways in Europe between 1990 and 2020 combined with time-invariant data on more than 2.3 million roads and 1400 ferry connections. I construct a new network database of highways, roads and ferries depicting a 31-year evolution of the lowest travel times along 51 000 region-to-region routes. To tackle endogeneity, I use non-local highway improvements as a source of exogenous variation. Reduced-form estimations suggest that, through decreasing transportation costs, highways increase aggregate regional income and economic cohesion. The study determines that transportation infrastructure policies can generate substantial economic benefits and reduce income disparities between poor and rich European regions.","wordCount":122,"journal":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","authors":["Augustin Ignatov"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103969","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fcd9285ba0d9a317","title":"Did Industrialization increase support for the radical left? Evidence from the 1917 Russian revolution","abstract":"Radicalization is stronger in places that exhibit markers of late industrialization. We analyze the 1917 Constituent Assembly elections – the only free universal elections in Russia before the 1990s – to estimate the effect of industrialization on the radicalization of the electorate in a late industrializing economy. Our empirical strategy exploits IV estimation based on the proximity of Carboniferous strata and other initial conditions of industrialization. We find that a larger share of industrial workers increases voting for the radical left, and the effect is stronger in places that exhibited more pronounced features of late industrialization. We also show that industrialization increases electoral polarization rather than simply shifting the electorate to the left.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Paul Castañeda Dower","Andreĭ Markevich"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","P"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.001","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fcdc785e8af6460a","title":"Learning by Regulating: The Evolution of Wind Energy Zoning Laws","abstract":"I study the determinants of regulation in an emerging industry by analyzing the uptake and evolution of local wind energy zoning laws. I do so by assembling a novel database of county wind energy conversion system ordinances. Using a duration analysis, I find that counties adopt regulations when potential benefits from doing so are high and regulatory costs are low. Although counties mimic the standards of their neighbors, regulations eventually become spatially heterogeneous, presumably as governments better align policies with local preferences. The findings highlight the dynamic nature of regulation in a formal environment, building on the seminal study of property rights by Harold Demsetz. I also contribute to an ongoing policy debate about which levels of government can effectively regulate wind power. I find that current state proposals to reclaim centralized control will likely stunt the local adaptation observed unless the counties have insufficient regulatory capacity to create regulations.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["Justin B. Winikoff"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718912","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fceb3bbedab31e8c","title":"Gender Gaps in the Labour Market and Economic Growth","abstract":"This paper studies the effects of policies aimed at mitigating discrimination against women in the marketplace on gender gaps in the labour market, unemployment and long‐run growth. The analysis uses a gender‐based overlapping generations model with labour market rigidities. Gender bias in the workplace varies inversely with the presence of skilled women (who operate as agents of change ) in employment and has a direct impact on their bargaining power in the family. The model is calibrated for Morocco. Experiments show that although the growth effects of policies aimed at mitigating gender bias in the workplace are significant and are magnified through a stronger presence of skilled women in the labour market, a trade‐off may emerge with respect to female unemployment when they are combined with subsidies to women’s training. To mitigate this trade‐off, anti‐discrimination policies in the marketplace may need to be complemented by across‐the‐board measures aimed at reducing labour costs and raising productivity.","wordCount":155,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Pierre‐Richard Agénor","Kamer K. Ozdemir","Emmanuel Pinto Moreira"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","O","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12363","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fcf47e7e8d1afe01","title":"Misallocation of talent, teachers’ human capital, and development in Brazil","abstract":"In this study, we investigate the allocation of talent in an economy where teachers play a critical role in developing the human capital of the workforce. To this end, we formulate a Roy model with externality in the occupational choice, as the quantity and quality of teachers are key determinants of workers’ human capital. Our analysis suggests that when individuals with greater abilities opt for teaching careers, the entire workforce benefits. However, frictions in the labor and educational goods markets may lead to a suboptimal allocation of talent and hinder economic growth and development. Our model is calibrated to the Brazilian economy, and our findings reveal a negative correlation between frictions in the teacher’s occupation and per capita output in the Brazilian states. Our results indicate that eliminating friction in the labor market could result in a 16.94% increase in Brazilian income.","wordCount":142,"journal":"Journal of Macroeconomics","authors":["Fernando Barros","Bruno Delalibera","Luciano Nakabashi","Marcos J. Ribeiro"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","J","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103542","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fcf714db657cd8fe","title":"Three prongs for prudent climate policy","abstract":"For three decades, advocates for climate change policy have simultaneously emphasized the urgency of taking ambitious actions to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and provided false reassurances of the feasibility of doing so. The policy prescription has relied almost exclusively on a single approach: reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other GHGs. Since 1990, global CO 2 emissions have increased 60%, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations have raced past 400 ppm, and temperatures increased at an accelerating rate. The one‐prong strategy has not worked. After reviewing emission mitigation's poor performance and low‐probability of delivering on long‐term climate goals, we advance a three‐pronged strategy for mitigating climate change risks: adding adaptation and amelioration—through solar radiation management (SRM)—to the emission mitigation approach. We highlight SRM's potential, at dramatically lower cost than emission mitigation, to play a key role in offsetting warming. We address the moral hazard reservation held by environmental advocates—that SRM would diminish emission mitigation incentives—and posit that SRM deployment might even serve as an “awful action alert” that galvanizes more ambitious emission mitigation. We conclude by emphasizing the value of an iterative act‐learn‐act policy framework that engages all three prongs for limiting climate change damages.","wordCount":197,"journal":"Southern Economic Journal","authors":["Joseph E. Aldy","Richard Zeckhauser"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12433","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fcf82a8c38f93bdb","title":"Foreign banks and firms’ export dynamics: Evidence from China’s banking reform","abstract":"This paper investigates how banking integration affects export dynamics. To estimate the causal link, we exploit the phased liberalization of the Chinese banking industry to foreign competition across cities, based on WTO accession commitments, and use transaction-level data for all Chinese exporters. Following deregulation of foreign banks’ local-currency business, the increased local presence of foreign banks from the importing country raises export entry, the number of products and initial sales to the same country for firms in the city but has no effect on exit or growth. The effects are significantly more pronounced for exports to more distant countries, for firms in industries with fewer collateralizable assets and those exporting differentiated goods. We uncover the particular channels through which banking integration facilitates exports. The results are consistent with foreign banks’ informational advantage in screening export projects, relying less on collateral for lending decisions, and reducing uncertainty for firms exporting to the banks’ home country.","wordCount":154,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Ana P. Fernandes","Jing‐Lin Duanmu"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"F","allJels":["F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"International Economics / F","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103474","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fd07b3440cc79881","title":"Occupational Regulation, Institutions, and Migrants’ Labor Market Outcomes","abstract":"We study how licensing, certification and unionisation affect the wages of natives and migrants and their representation among licensed, certified, and unionized workers. We provide evidence of a dual role of labor market institutions, which both screen workers based on unobservable characteristics and also provide them with wage setting power. Labor market institutions confer significant wage premia to native workers (4.0, 1.6, and 2.7 log points for licensing, certification, and unionization), due to screening and wage setting power. Wage premia are significantly larger for licensed and certified migrants (10.3 and 6.6 log points), reflecting a more intense screening of migrant than native workers. The representation of migrants among licensed (but not certified or unionized) workers is 15% lower than that of natives. This again implies a more intense screening of migrants by licensing institutions than by certification and unionization.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Maria Koumenta","Mario Pagliero","Davud Rostam‐Afschar"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102250","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd082002b56172dc","title":"How accurately are household surveys measuring the LGBT population in Colombia? Evidence from a list experiment","abstract":"This paper studies whether household surveys precisely identify the LGBT population and are suitable to measure labor market discrimination in Colombia. We first quantify the size of the LGBT population and estimate labor market inequalities from these data, highlighting potential pitfalls from using this approach. We then present findings from a list experiment in the capital city of Bogotá. Results show that household surveys underestimate the size of the LGBT population and may yield biased estimates of labor market inequalities. While survey estimates range between 1-4%, we find that LGBT individuals represent around 12-22% of the total population. We find heterogeneous reporting by sex at birth, age groups, educational attainment, and marital status. Our findings suggest that while current measurement practices are a step forward for LGBTQ+ visibility, further steps are required before household surveys may be used to consistently estimate discrimination and guide policy responses to protect their welfare.","wordCount":150,"journal":"Labour Economics","authors":["Andrés Ham","Ángela Guarín","Juanita Ruiz"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102503","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fd15bee57bb2a02f","title":"Student Loan Nudges: Experimental Evidence on Borrowing and Educational Attainment","abstract":"We provide the first experimental evidence on the effect of student loans on educational attainment. Loan amounts listed in financial aid [grant] (“offers”) do not alter students’ choice sets but significantly affect borrowing. Students randomly receiving a nonzero offer were 40 percent more likely to borrow than those who received a $0 offer. Per additional borrower, loans increased by $4,000, GPA and completed credits increased by 30 percent, and transfers to four-year public colleges increased by 11 percentage points. Cost-benefit and theoretical analyses suggest nonzero offers enhance welfare, yet over five million students are not currently offered loans.","wordCount":98,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Benjamin Marx","Lesley J. Turner"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180279","license":"other-oa"},{"id":"public-fd16fab8670eba35","title":"Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War","abstract":"Whereas attitudes toward risk play an important role in many decisions over the life course, factors that affect those attitudes are not fully understood. Using longitudinal survey data collected in Mexico before and during the Mexican war on drugs, we investigate how risk attitudes change with variation in insecurity and uncertainty brought on by unprecedented changes in local-area violent crime. Exploiting the fact that the timing, virulence, and spatial distribution of changes in violent crime were unanticipated, we establish there is a rise in risk aversion spread across the entire local population as local-area violent crime increases.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Ryan Brown","Verónica Montalva","Duncan Thomas","Andrea Velásquez"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","K"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00788","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd1f147003246f3d","title":"Pecuniary Externalities in Economies with Financial Frictions","abstract":"This article characterizes the efficiency properties of competitive economies with financial constraints, in which phenomena such as fire sales and financial amplification may arise. We show that financial constraints lead to two distinct types of pecuniary externalities: distributive externalities that arise from incomplete insurance markets and collateral externalities that arise from price-dependent financial constraints. For both types of externalities, we identify three sufficient statistics that determine optimal taxes on financing and investment decisions to implement constrained efficient allocations. We also show that fire sales and financial amplification are neither necessary nor sufficient to generate inefficient pecuniary externalities. We demonstrate how to employ our framework in a number of applications. Whereas collateral externalities generally lead to over-borrowing, the distortions from distributive externalities may easily flip sign, leading to either under- or over-borrowing. Both types of externalities may lead to under- or over-investment.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Review of Economic Studies","authors":["Eduardo Dávila","Anton Korinek"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx010","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd26c45801867a23","title":"Estimating dynamic R&D choice: an analysis of costs and long‐run benefits","abstract":"This article estimates a dynamic structural model of discrete Research and Development (R&D) investment and quantifies its cost and long‐run benefit for German manufacturing firms. The model incorporates linkages between R&D choice, product and process innovations, and future productivity and profits. The long‐run payoff to R&D is the proportional difference in expected firm value generated by the investment. It increases firm value by 6.7% for the median firm in high‐tech industries but only 2.8% in low‐tech industries. Simulations show that reductions in maintenance costs of innovation significantly raise investment rates and productivity, whereas reductions in startup costs have little effect.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Bettina Peters","Mark J. Roberts","Van Anh Vuong","Helmut Fryges"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12181","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd3184af215cdd80","title":"Dishonesty and Selection into Public Service: Evidence from India","abstract":"Students in India who cheat on a simple laboratory task are more likely to prefer public sector jobs. This paper shows that cheating on this task predicts corrupt behavior by civil servants, implying that it is a meaningful predictor of future corruption. Students who demonstrate pro-social preferences are less likely to prefer government jobs, while outcomes on an explicit game and attitudinal measures to measure corruption do not systematically predict job preferences. A screening process that chooses high-ability applicants would not alter the average propensity for corruption. The findings imply that differential selection into government may contribute, in part, to corruption.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Rema Hanna","Shing-Yi Wang"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150029","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd352537d35b28db","title":"Credit Access and College Enrollment","abstract":"Does access to credit explain the gap in schooling attainment between children from richer and poorer families? I present new evidence on this important question based on the causal effects of two college loan programs in Chile that are available to students scoring above a threshold on the national college admission test, enabling a regression discontinuity design. I find that credit access leads to a 100 percent increase in immediate college enrollment and a 50 percent increase in the probability of ever enrolling. Moreover, access to loans effectively eliminates the income gap in enrollment and number of years of college attainment.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Alex Solís"],"year":2017,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/690829","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd3a0062250f2478","title":"Increasing the impact of collective incentives in payments for ecosystem services","abstract":"Collective payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs make payments to groups, conditional on specified aggregate land-management outcomes. Such collective contracting may be well suited to settings with communal land tenure or decision-making. Given that collective contracting does not require costly individual-level information on outcomes, it may also facilitate conditioning on additionality (i.e., conditioning payments upon clearly improved outcomes relative to baseline). Yet collective contracting often suffers from free-riding, which undermines group outcomes and may be exacerbated or ameliorated by PES designs. We study impacts of conditioning on additionality within a number of collective PES designs. We use a framed field-laboratory experiment with participants from a new PES program in Mexico. Because social interactions are critical within collective processes, we assess the impacts from conditioning on additionality given: (1) group participation in contract design, and (2) a group coordination mechanism. Conditioning on above-baseline outcomes raised contributions, particularly among initially lower contributors. Group participation in contract design increased impact, as did the coordination mechanism.","wordCount":162,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["David Kaczan","Alexander Pfaff","Luz Ángela Cuéllar Rodríguez","Elizabeth Shapiro‐Garza"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.06.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd3c5680ed72709b","title":"Women’s Empowerment in Action: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in Africa","abstract":"We evaluate a multifaceted policy intervention attempting to jump-start adolescent women’s empowerment in Uganda by simultaneously providing them vocational training and information on sex, reproduction, and marriage. We find that four years postintervention, adolescent girls in treated communities are more likely to be self-employed. Teen pregnancy, early entry into marriage/cohabitation, and the share of girls reporting sex against their will fall sharply. The results highlight the potential of a multifaceted program that provides skills transfers as a viable and cost-effective policy intervention to improve the economic and social empowerment of adolescent girls over a four-year horizon.","wordCount":96,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Oriana Bandiera","Niklas Buehren","Robin Burgess","Markus Goldstein","Selim Gulesci","Imran Rasul","Munshi Sulaiman"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170416","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd4750c2ab97d9a1","title":"Governance mandates, outside directors, and acquirer performance","abstract":"We use hand-collected board data around the issuance of two distinct government-led board structure mandates in the U.K. to establish the effect of outside directors on acquirer performance. Increases in outside director representation are associated with better acquirer returns in deals involving listed targets, but not when the target is private. These results are consistent with greater outside director reputational exposure when publicity is high. While we do not advocate mandated board structures, our evidence suggests that the particular diktats we examine were associated with improved acquirer performance in public firm takeovers. We present corroborating evidence from the U.S. around a similar reform period.","wordCount":104,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Jay Dahya","Andrey Golubov","Dimitris Petmezas","Nickolaos G. Travlos"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.11.005","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd47ea674c6e23b7","title":"Autonomous algorithmic collusion: Q‐learning under sequential pricing","abstract":"Prices are increasingly set by algorithms. One concern is that intelligent algorithms may learn to collude on higher prices even in the absence of the kind of coordination necessary to establish an antitrust infringement. However, exactly how this may happen is an open question. I show how in simulated sequential competition, competing reinforcement learning algorithms can indeed learn to converge to collusive equilibria when the set of discrete prices is limited. When this set increases, the algorithm considered increasingly converges to supra‐competitive asymmetric cycles. I show that results are robust to various extensions and discuss practical limitations and policy implications.","wordCount":100,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Timo Klein"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12383","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fd486baf4c56126a","title":"Retirement, intergenerational time transfers, and fertility","abstract":"Retired parents might invest time in their adult children by providing childcare. Such intergenerational time transfers can have important implications for family decisions. This paper estimates the effects of parental retirement on the fertility of their adult children. We use representative panel data from Germany to link observations on parents and their adult children. We exploit eligibility ages for early retirement for identification in a regression discontinuity and pension reforms in a difference-in-differences design. The results suggest that parents’ retirement positively influences the fertility of their adult children, which is mainly driven by an increase in the likelihood of having a second birth. However, while parental retirement affects the timing of the fertility of their adult children, it does not affect the children's total fertility.","wordCount":125,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Peter Eibich","Thomas Siedler"],"year":2020,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103392","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fd4a1edab9bcbbaa","title":"The Rise of Finance Companies and FinTech Lenders in Small Business Lending","abstract":"We document that finance companies and FinTech lenders increased lending to small businesses after the 2008 financial crisis. We show that most of the increase substituted for a reduction in bank lending. In counties in which banks had a larger market share before the crisis, finance companies and FinTech lenders increased their lending more. We find no effect of reduced bank lending on employment, wages, and new business creation by 2016. Our results suggest that finance companies and FinTech lenders are major suppliers of credit to small businesses and played an important role in the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Manasa Gopal","Philipp Schnabl"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhac034","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd4d542da08bdbac","title":"Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations","abstract":"Do inflation expectations react to changes in the volatility of monetary policy? They have, but only until the global financial crisis. This paper investigates whether increasing the dispersion of monetary policy shocks, which is interpreted as elevated uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, affects the inflation expectation formation process. Based on US data since the 1980s and a stochastic volatility‐in‐mean structural VAR model, we find that monetary policy uncertainty reduces both inflation expectations and inflation. However, after the Great Recession this link has disappeared, even when controlling for the Zero Lower Bound.","wordCount":90,"journal":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro","Boris Blagov"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12516","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd5a6ba95b1487fc","title":"Female breadwinning and domestic abuse: evidence from Australia","abstract":"We explore the relationship between heterosexual partners’ relative income and the incidence of both domestic violence and emotional abuse. Using Australian data drawn from society-wide surveys, we find women who earn more than their male partners are subject to a 33% increase in partner violence and a 20% increase in emotional abuse compared to mean levels. We show the relationship between relative spouse income and female partner abuse is best modelled by a binary variable that captures “female breadwinning.” This finding differs from those of some earlier studies that considered only serious abuse and found a continuous negative relationship between female partners’ relative income and abuse. Instead, our findings suggest a mechanism related to gender norms generating domestic violence. We find no link between relative income and abuse of male partners.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Yinjunjie Zhang","Robert Breunig"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00975-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd5ddfd1ed52d8b5","title":"Dynamics of subjective risk premia","abstract":"We examine subjective risk premia implied by return expectations of individual investors and professionals for portfolios of stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodity futures. While in-sample predictive regressions with realized excess returns suggest that objective risk premia vary countercyclically with business-cycle and asset-valuation measures, subjective risk premia extracted from survey data are largely acyclical. Out-of-sample forecasts of excess returns exhibit a similar lack of cyclicality, which suggests that investors’ learning of forecasting relationships in real time may help explain the cyclicality gap. There is a subjective risk-return tradeoff, with subjective risk premia increasing in subjective perceptions of risk quantity.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Stefan Nagel","Zhengyang Xu"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103713","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd637bde394417ad","title":"Intergenerational altruism with future bias","abstract":"We show that standard preferences of altruistic overlapping generations exhibit future bias, which involves preference reversals associated with increasing impatience. This underlies a conflict of interest between successive generations. We explore the implications of this conflict for intergenerational redistribution when there is a sequence of utilitarian governments representing living generations and choosing policies independently over time. We argue that future bias creates incentives to legislate and sustain a pay-as-you-go pension system, which every government views as a self-enforcing commitment mechanism to increase future old-age transfers.","wordCount":85,"journal":"Journal of Economic Theory","authors":["Francisco M. González","Itziar Lazkano","Sjak Smulders"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","I","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.10.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fd65202d0c3537d4","title":"Competition and product composition: Evidence from hollywood","abstract":"We examine how competition affects the number and composition of product offerings. The question is addressed using the example of the U.S. motion picture industry, which has experienced declining attendance in the past decade due to competition from streaming services and smart phone applications. Using data on 1,486 releases between 2009 and 2018, we estimate a structural model of endogenous product choice in which studios allocate a fixed budget to low-, medium-, and high-budget movie projects each year. A counterfactual exercise in which we assume that the number of Netflix streaming subscribers remains at its 2011 level reveals a significant increase in the number of medium-budget movies but little change in the number of low- and high-budget movies. Additional counterfactual exercises that simulate a change in the number of competing firms, such as a merger between two studios and the entry of a new studio, confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between competition and the number of medium-budget movies.","wordCount":160,"journal":"International Journal of Industrial Organization","authors":["Joseph Kuehn","Ryan Lampe"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","Z"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102981","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd7225f9a9f2d96a","title":"Reading the ransom: Methodological advancements in extracting the Swedish Wealth Tax of 1571","abstract":"We describe a deep learning method to read hand-written records from the 16th century. The method consists of a combination of a segmentation module and a Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) module. The transformer-based HTR module exploits both language and image features in reading, classifying and extracting the position of each word on the page. The method is demonstrated on a unique historical document: The Swedish Wealth Tax of 1571. Results suggest that the segmentation module performs significantly better than the lay-out analysis implemented in state-of-the art programs, enabling us to trace many more text blocks correctly on each page. The HTR module has a low character error rate (CER), in addition to being able to classify words and help organize them into tabular formats. By demonstrating an automated process to transform loosely structured handwritten information from the 16th century into organized tables, our method should interest economic historians seeking to digitize and organize quantitative material from pre-industrial periods.","wordCount":158,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Christopher Blomqvist","Kerstin Enflo","Andreas Jakobsson","Kalle Åström"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","C","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101470","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd79daa5d5996fa6","title":"The Evolution of Charter School Quality","abstract":"Studies of the charter sector typically compare charters and traditional public schools at a point in time. These comparisons are potentially misleading, because many charter‐related reforms require time to generate results. We study quality dynamics among charter schools in the State of Texas from 2001 to 2011. School quality in the charter sector was initially highly variable and on average lower than in traditional public schools. However, exits, improvement of existing charter schools, and higher quality of new entrants increased charter effectiveness relative to traditional public schools despite an acceleration in the rate of sector expansion in the latter half of the decade. We present evidence that reduced student mobility and an increased share of charters adhering to No‐Excuses‐style curricula contribute to these improvements. Although selection into charter schools becomes more favourable over time in terms of prior achievement and behaviour, such compositional improvements appear to contribute little to the charter sector gains. Moreover, accounting for composition in terms of prior achievement and behaviour has only a small effect on estimates of the higher average quality of No Excuses schools.","wordCount":180,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Patrick L. Baude","Marcus Casey","Eric A. Hanushek","Gregory R. Phelan","Steven G. Rivkin"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12299","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd7fc45eddf03ce1","title":"Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children","abstract":"We use miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility to estimate the effect of the first three children on women’s and men’s labor market outcomes. For women, we find that the effect is almost the same for the first, second and third child in the short run. The reduction in female earnings in the three first years after birth is on average 28 percent for the first child, 29 percent for the second child and 22 percent for the third child. The reduction is caused by drops in labor supply at the intensive margin and the extensive margin, concentrated among women in the middle part of the income distribution. There is considerable catching up after five years, but effects of the first two children persist ten years later, although they are imprecisely estimated. For men, we find evidence of increased labor supply and earnings after the first two children. We also find indications that having the first child increases take-up of health-related welfare benefits, such as disability insurance, for women, and that having a second and/or a third child increases couple stability.","wordCount":182,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Simen Markussen","Marte Strøm"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00807-0","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd886628e70f434c","title":"Bayesian neural networks for macroeconomic analysis","abstract":"Macroeconomic data is characterized by a limited number of observations (small T ), many time series (big K ) but also by featuring temporal dependence. Neural networks, by contrast, are designed for datasets with millions of observations and covariates. In this paper, we develop Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that are well-suited for handling datasets commonly used for macroeconomic analysis in policy institutions. Our approach avoids extensive specification searches through a novel mixture specification for the activation function that appropriately selects the form of nonlinearities. Shrinkage priors are used to prune the network and force irrelevant neurons to zero. To cope with heteroskedasticity, the BNN is augmented with a stochastic volatility model for the error term. We illustrate how the model can be used in a policy institution through simulations and by showing that BNNs produce more accurate point and density forecasts compared to other machine learning methods.","wordCount":147,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Niko Hauzenberger","Florian Huber","Karin Klieber","Massimiliano Marcellino"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105843","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd891e81c7ad93b2","title":"Market-Based Emissions Regulation and Industry Dynamics","abstract":"We assess the static and dynamic implications of alternative market-based policies limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the US cement industry. Our results highlight two countervailing market distortions. First, emissions regulation exacerbates distortions associated with the exercise of market power in the domestic cement market. Second, emissions “leakage” in trade-exposed markets offsets domestic emissions reductions. Taken together, these forces can result in social welfare losses under policy regimes that fully internalize the emissions externality. Market-based policies that incorporate design features to mitigate the exercise of market power and emissions leakage deliver welfare gains when damages from carbon emissions are high.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Political Economy","authors":["Meredith Fowlie","Mar Reguant","Stephen Ryan"],"year":2016,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/684484","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fd8c7596f70a8967","title":"Optimal Design of Experiments in the Presence of Interference","abstract":"We formalize the optimal design of experiments when there is interference between units, i.e. an individual's outcome depends on the outcomes of others in her group. We focus on randomized saturation designs, two-stage experiments that first randomize treatment saturation of a group, then individual treatment assignment. We map the potential outcomes framework with partial interference to a regression model with clustered errors, calculate standard errors of randomized saturation designs, and derive analytical insights about the optimal design. We show that the power to detect average treatment effects declines precisely with the ability to identify novel treatment and spillover effects.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Review of Economics and Statistics","authors":["Sarah Baird","J. Aislinn Bohren","Craig McIntosh","Berk Özler"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"C","allJels":["C","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Econometrics / C","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00716","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fd930e86399cdb1e","title":"The backfiring effects of monetary and gift incentives on Covid-19 vaccination intentions","abstract":"We provide evidence that material inducements for Covid-19 vaccination may backfire. Results from a hypothetical survey experiment in China (N = 1365) show incentives of 8–125 USD reduce vaccine uptake intentions compared to simply offering vaccination for free. Ours is the first Covid-19 vaccine study to separately consider and directly compare the effects of monetary and goods-based incentives, both of which have been widely employed by countries seeking to increase uptake; we demonstrate that both types backfire equally. Results are compared against the burgeoning literature on Covid-19 vaccine incentives.","wordCount":89,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Xinrui Zhang","Tom Lane"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.102009","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fd997d4df44f5560","title":"Protect your green line: Foreign residency rights and green innovation","abstract":"This study examines the relationship between individuals possessing foreign residency rights (FRR) and their involvement in the green innovation (GI) of Chinese private enterprises. The study's findings reveal a detrimental influence of FRR on GI, primarily due to heightened financing costs that impede firms' progress in GI. However, this adverse impact is alleviated through the implementation of the Mass Entrepreneurship Innovation Campaign and firms with political connections. Furthermore, our findings indicate that extradition agreements reduce entrepreneurial feeling, fostering trust among investors, stakeholders, and creditors, thus minimizing the detrimental effects of FRR on GI. Results remain robust against alternative primary variables and endogeneity concerns.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Economics Letters","authors":["Umer Sahil Maqsood","Shihao Wang","Qian Li","R. M. Ammar Zahid"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111442","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fda2bbb0fc9b6109","title":"When the neighbors are watching: Immigrant integration policy and housing wealth","abstract":"We hypothesize and establish empirically that the effects of migrant integration policies on housing wealth are influenced by public attention to immigration. Using a unique policy converting temporary refugee reception centers into integration facilities, we conduct an event study analysis. Our results show that timing matters: implementation during times of high public attention to immigration reduces housing wealth, while implementation during times of low attention has no impact. These findings suggest that the backlash effect of integration policies estimated in the literature may be driven by public perceptions of migration crises.","wordCount":91,"journal":"Journal of Urban Economics","authors":["Mario F. Carillo","Lavinia Piemontese","Francesco Flaviano Russo"],"year":2026,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2026.103844","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fdaecec614423e4f","title":"Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act","abstract":"This paper examines how state governments adjusted spending in response to the large temporary increase in federal highway grants under the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The mechanism used to apportion ARRA highway grants to states allows one to isolate exogenous changes in these grants. The results indicate that states increased highway spending over 2009 to 2011 more than dollar-for-dollar with the ARRA grants they received. Rent-seeking efforts are shown to help explain this result: states with more political contributions from the public works sector to the governor and state legislators tended to spend more out of their ARRA highway funds than other states.","wordCount":106,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Sylvain Leduc","Daniel J. Wilson"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140371","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fdb7184852f504c5","title":"Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability collide","abstract":"This paper shows the existence of a central bank trilemma. When a central bank is involved in financial intermediation, either directly through a central bank digital currency (CBDC) or indirectly through other policy instruments, it can only achieve two of three objectives: a socially efficient allocation, financial stability (i.e., absence of runs), and price stability. In particular, a commitment to price stability can cause a run on the central bank. Implementation of the socially optimal allocation requires a commitment to inflation. We illustrate this idea through a nominal version of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) model. Our perspective may be particularly appropriate when CBDCs are introduced on a wide scale.","wordCount":110,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Linda Schilling","Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde","Harald Uhlig"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.01.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fdb9da06df190828","title":"Maldevelopment revisited: Inclusiveness and social impacts of soy expansion over Brazil’s Cerrado in Matopiba","abstract":"Cash crops such as soy, cocoa and oil palm have expanded at great speed in developing countries, often at the expense of customary landowners, traditional livelihoods, and biodiversity. These landscape transformations have global drivers, but they are often justified by a dominant rationale that they bring development to otherwise underprivileged regions. Such development claims, however, are either taken at face value or conflated with simplistic macroeconomic indicators that gloss over most social issues. Those claims may, therefore, hide severe inequities. To better analyze these phenomena, we revisit and conceptualize the notion of maldevelopment, here defined as inequitable and exclusive processes of change that deprive most local stakeholders of their social and material capabilities. Using an inclusiveness framework, we then conduct an in-depth analysis of soy expansion in the Matopiba region of Brazil's Cerrado. This rich biome with a mosaic of land uses forms an agriculture-savanna landscape that is rapidly giving way to soy monoculture -under the guise of development. Through fieldwork and primary data collection in 18 Matopiba municipalities, we have interviewed 62 stakeholders in that landscape transformation from different social groups. We assess how soy expansion has altered access and allocation patterns of key resources such as land and water, as well as participation in the local food systems and governance initiatives. When looking beyond general economic indicators, our findings expose a brutally exclusive process of environmental degradation and resource dispossession. Yet the stakeholders we interviewed do not want to simply be left undisturbed but to experience inclusive development instead, with participation in governance and support for bottom-up initiatives. We conclude that the frequently cited claim that industrial monocultures bring development to underserved regions deserves far greater scrutiny, and that inclusiveness in the design and execution of interventions is crucial for avoiding maldevelopment.","wordCount":294,"journal":"World Development","authors":["Gabriela Russo Lopes","Mairon G. Bastos Lima","Tiago N.P. dos Reis"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105316","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fdbd82f2d887380e","title":"Political Contributions and Public Procurement: Evidence from Lithuania","abstract":"This paper studies whether firms trade political contributions for public procurement contracts. Combining data on Lithuanian government tenders, corporate donors, and firm characteristics, I examine how a ban on corporate contributions affects the awarding of procurement contracts to companies that donated in the past. Consistent with political favoritism, donors’ probability of winning falls by five percentage points as compared to that of nondonor firms after the ban. Evidence on bidding and victory margins suggests that corporate donors may receive auction-relevant information affecting procurement outcomes in their favor.","wordCount":87,"journal":"Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":["Audinga Baltrunaite"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz016","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fdc80b0176caeab3","title":"A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations","abstract":"Economists widely rely on measures of inflation expectations and uncertainty elicited via density forecasts. This approach, which asks respondents to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges, has proven highly informative, but also faced criticism in recent periods of elevated and volatile inflation. We propose a new method to elicit the full distribution of inflation expectations, which is rooted in decision theory and can be implemented in standard surveys. In two large surveys and a laboratory experiment, we demonstrate that the proposed method leads to well-defined expectations that fulfil both subjective and objective quality criteria. The method is neither perceived as more difficult nor does it take more time to complete compared to the current standard. In contrast to density forecasts, the method is robust to differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons across time and across countries. The method is portable and can be applied to elicit different macroeconomic expectations.","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Olga Goldfayn-Frank","Pascal Kieren","Stefan Trautmann"],"year":2025,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","N","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103882","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fdcdfb27dc2ae010","title":"Are Parental Welfare Work Requirements Good for Disadvantaged Children? Evidence From Age‐of‐Youngest‐Child Exemptions","abstract":"This paper assesses the impact of welfare reform’s parental work requirements on low-income children’s cognitive and social-emotional development. The identification strategy exploits an important feature of the work requirement rules—namely, age-of youngest- child exemptions—as a source of quasi-experimental variation in first-year maternal employment. The 1996 welfare reform law empowered states to exempt adult recipients from the work requirements until the youngest child reaches a certain age. This led to substantial variation in the amount of time that mothers can remain home with a newborn child. I use this variation to estimate the impact of work-requirement induced increases in maternal employment. Using a sample of infants from the Birth cohort of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, the reduced form and instrumental variables estimates reveal sizable negative effects of maternal employment. An auxiliary analysis of mechanisms finds that working mothers experience an increase in depressive symptoms, and are less likely to breastfeed and read to their children. In addition, such children are exposed to nonparental child care arrangements at a younger age, and they spend more time in these settings throughout the first year of life.","wordCount":184,"journal":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","authors":["Chris M. Herbst"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21971","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fdcffbef52625789","title":"Caveat utilitor: A comparative assessment of resilience measurement approaches","abstract":"As development and humanitarian agencies increasingly advance the objective of ‘building resilience’, three resilience measurement methods have come into especially widespread use: the Resilience Indicators for Measurement and Analysis approach developed by FAO, the multi-dimensional index approach developed by TANGO International, and the probabilistic approach of Cissé and Barrett. We compare performance across those three methods using nationally representative panel data from Ethiopia and Niger. We find that the three measures exhibit significantly different distributions and orderings among households, and they vary significantly in the households they identify as resilient or least resilient. All three measures exhibit only modest out-of-sample predictive accuracy, generating many false negatives and false positives relative to the food security outcome measure whose resilience they are meant to reflect. It remains unclear what these measures capture and what value they add beyond more established wellbeing measures such as the food consumption score or real expenditures. There is significant room for improvement in resilience measurement to better guide and evaluate development resilience interventions.","wordCount":166,"journal":"Journal of Development Economics","authors":["Joanna Upton","Susana Constenla-Villoslada","Christopher B. Barrett"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102873","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fdf31354718c6c27","title":"Making Elections Work: Accountability with Selection and Control","abstract":"We study the limits of dynamic electoral accountability when voters are uncertain about politicians’ characteristics (adverse selection) and their actions (moral hazard). Existing work argues that voters cannot achieve their first-best payoff. This is attributed to inherent deficiencies of the electoral contract, including voters’ inability to precommit, and the restriction to a binary retention-replacement decision. We provide conditions under which voters can, despite these constraints, obtain arbitrarily close to the first-best payoff in an equilibrium of the electoral interaction. Our paper resolves that there need not be a trade-off between selection and control.","wordCount":93,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Vincent Anesi","Peter Buisseret"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200311","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fe060b9746f75233","title":"Gun Dealer Density and Its Effect on Homicide","abstract":"We explore the relationship between gun prevalence and homicides in the United States in 2003–19. We create a novel measure of gun density in a narrow geographic area using an underutilized metric: gun dealers. We find that an increase in gun dealer density is significantly and positively associated with increased homicides in subsequent years. We compare estimates from our preferred measure to those found using other gun prevalence measures. We show that the effect of gun dealer density is limited mostly to counties with a high percentage of Black residents and metropolitan areas. We propose that the so-called Ferguson effect—a sharp increase in violent crime in urban and Black communities after 2014—might be largely explained by an influx of gun dealers in and near Black communities rather than a change in the propensity of Black residents to call the police or changes in policing.","wordCount":144,"journal":"Journal of Law and Economics","authors":["David B. Johnson","Joshua J. Robinson"],"year":2024,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/726457","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fe0766d22f2e4289","title":"Countercyclical capital buffers and credit supply: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis","abstract":"This paper examines how European banks adjusted their lending subsequent to the release of the countercyclical capital buffers (CCyB) during the COVID-19 pandemic. At its onset in 2020Q1, being exposed to a higher ex-ante countercyclical capital buffer led to a reduction in banks' lending. Yet the relief of the CCyBs removed this negative effect from 2020Q2 onwards. We find that the reduction in CCyBs led to a significant relative increase in the average bank's lending by about 5.6 percentage points of their total assets. This increase happened mainly in retail mortgage loans and was stronger for poorly-capitalized banks. These results imply that the release of the CCyBs was effective in promoting bank lending during the pandemic.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Journal of Banking and Finance","authors":["H Neef","Alexander Schandlbauer","Colin Wittig"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106930","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fe10abb7e5b5e405","title":"Relationships on the Rocks: Contract Evolution in a Market for Ice","abstract":"Firms use relational contracts to support repeated trade. Do these informal agreements evolve in response to market conditions? In a market for ice, firms reestablish relationships on new terms when a prior agreement breaks down. Using transaction data, we show that ice retailers prioritize deliveries to loyal buyers—fishing firms— when supply from the monopolistic manufacturer is scarce. After an upstream shock to competition increases supply, repeated trade lapses, threatening retailers’ positions. Incumbent retailers establish a new agreement expanding trade credit to loyal buyers, which impedes new retailer entry. Upstream competition also increases downstream firms’ productivity and lowers consumer fish prices.","wordCount":100,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Tarek Ghani","Tristan Reed"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","F","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190166","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fe2e4f17958a3f33","title":"Settling prosperity: Historical immigration and its long-term institutional legacies","abstract":"Brazil's state-led immigration policy shaped regional economic and institutional development. During Brazil’s Age of Mass Migration (1880s-1930s), the state sponsored immigrant settlements in São Paulo. Using a new dataset that combines historical and modern administrative records, this paper explores the institutional impact of these settlements. Municipalities closer to them now enjoy better public goods provision and more well-defined property rights, as reflected in structured contractual arrangements, fewer land invasions, and increased investments in high-stakes agricultural practices. Intermediate data show that settlement municipalities recorded higher notarial activity, more frequent legal transactions, and greater land tax revenues in the years following settlement. These changes supported improvements in local governance, legal certainty, and public investment. Overall, the findings highlight how state-led settlement shaped regional economic and institutional development, showing that the implementation of immigration policy had lasting effects on local growth trajectories.","wordCount":139,"journal":"Journal of Comparative Economics","authors":["Amanda Guimbeau"],"year":2026,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.008","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fe32f4862ba3fc7e","title":"Assessing food value chain pathways, linkages and impacts for better nutrition of vulnerable groups","abstract":"This article offers insights into assessing the effectiveness of post farm-gate agri-food value chains at improving the nutrition intake of vulnerable groups. It develops a conceptual framework integrating the value chain concepts with agriculture and nutrition, and identifies key outcomes and requirements for value chains to be successful at delivering substantive and sustained consumption of nutrient-dense foods by poor households. Other frameworks linking value chains with nutrition have been published, but this article provides the analytical lens to assess post-farm-gate value chains. \\n \\nTo achieve improvements in the intake of nutritious foods by the target populations food must be: safe to eat on a sustained basis; nutrient dense at the point of consumption; and consumed in adequate amounts on a sustained basis. This shifts the focus to the role of public actions and policy in terms of shaping the functioning of food value chains. \\n \\nBy assessing the limits of what business can and cannot contribute in a given market context, policy-makers and other relevant stakeholders will be more capable of creating an appropriate institutional environment that shapes how value chains operate for the benefit of vulnerable target groups, designing and implementing effective policies and strategies with respect to the role and use of market-based interventions.","wordCount":206,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Mar Maestre","Nigel Poole","Spencer Henson"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","O","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.12.007","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fe3a926bdce1a011","title":"The Coase Conjecture When the Monopolist and Customers have Different Discount Rates","abstract":"One of the most famous and outstanding formalizations of the Coase Conjecture is by Gul et al. (J Econ Theory 39(1):155–190, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(86)90024-4 ) peculiarity of their model—as well as nearly all other examinations of the Coase Conjecture, including that by Coase himself—is that it assumes that the monopolist and customers have the same discount rate. I re-examine their model, while relaxing this restriction. Gul et. al. show that, if the (common) discount rate of the monopolist and customers approaches one, then the Coase Conjecture follows. I show that one only needs the discount rate of the customers to approach one for this to be true. I also show a second result: If the customers’ discount rate is fixed at a value less than one, while the monopolist’s discount rate approaches one, then the Coase Conjecture is guaranteed not to follow.","wordCount":141,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Tim Groseclose"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-024-09990-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fe40d411e6e84cd4","title":"Estimation of varying coefficient models with measurement error","abstract":"We propose a semiparametric estimator for varying coefficient models when the regressors in the nonparametric components are measured with error. Varying coefficient models are an extension of other popular semiparametric models, including partially linear and nonparametric additive models, and deliver an attractive solution to the curse-of-dimensionality. We use deconvolution kernel estimation in a two-step procedure and show that the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We do not assume that we know the distribution of the measurement error a priori. Instead, we suppose we have access to a repeated measurement of the noisy regressor and present results using the approach of Delaigle, Hall and Meister (2008) and, for cases when the measurement error may be asymmetric, the approach of Li and Vuong (1998) based on Kotlarski's (1967) identity. We show that the convergence rate of the estimator is significantly reduced when the distribution of the measurement error is assumed unknown and possibly asymmetric. We study the small sample behaviour of our estimator in a simulation study and apply it to a real dataset. In particular, we consider the role of cognitive ability in augmenting the effect of risk preferences on earnings.","wordCount":192,"journal":"Journal of Econometrics","authors":["Hao Dong","Taisuke Otsu","Luke Taylor"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","E","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.12.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fe4764fbd1379944","title":"Distracted Shareholders and Corporate Actions","abstract":"Investor attention matters for corporate actions. Our new identification approach constructs firm-level shareholder “distraction” measures, by exploiting exogenous shocks to unrelated parts of institutional shareholders’ portfolios. Firms with “distracted” shareholders are more likely to announce diversifying, value-destroying, acquisitions. They are also more likely to [grant] timed CEO stock options, more likely to cut dividends, and less likely to fire their CEO for bad performance. Firms with distracted shareholders have abnormally low stock returns. Combined, these patterns are consistent with a model in which the unrelated shock shifts investor attention, leading to a temporary loosening of monitoring constraints.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Elisabeth Kempf","Alberto Manconi","Oliver G. Spalt"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw082","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fe48d9cb0c82d80a","title":"No man is an island: trust, trustworthiness, and social networks among refugees in Germany","abstract":"We analyze possible links between both trust and trustworthiness among Syrian refugees in Germany in relation to two different forms of social networking: bonding networks, which include only other Syrians, and bridging networks, which include people from the host country. Our results show that Syrians who engage in bonding networks show higher levels of trust and (un)conditional trustworthiness when interacting with a Syrian compared to a German participant. In turn, for refugees engaged in bridging networks, the positive discrimination refugees display towards their own peers decreases regarding trust and conditional trustworthiness and vanishes regarding unconditional trustworthiness. Newly arrived Syrian refugees tend to engage in bonding networks, whereas the length of stay and having a private home coincide with more bridging networks.","wordCount":121,"journal":"Journal of Population Economics","authors":["Nora El‐Bialy","Elisa Fraile Aranda","Andreas Nicklisch","Lamis Saleh","Stefan Voigt"],"year":2023,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Z","allJels":["Z","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Other Special Topics / Z","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00969-7","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fe4f778a8606674c","title":"Range-based DCC models for covariance and value-at-risk forecasting","abstract":"The dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model by Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. This model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low prices of a given day can be used to obtain an efficient volatility estimation. We therefore suggest a model that incorporates high and low prices into the DCC framework. We conduct an empirical evaluation of this model on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange traded funds. Regardless of whether we consider in-sample fit, covariance forecasts or value-at-risk forecasts, our model outperforms not only the standard DCC model, but also an alternative range-based DCC model.","wordCount":113,"journal":"Journal of Empirical Finance","authors":["Piotr Fiszeder","Marcin Fałdziński","Péter Molnár"],"year":2019,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.08.004","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fe5fb8225df0c0cb","title":"Foundation ownership and sustainability","abstract":"Concerns about the sustainability of contemporary capitalism have inspired a search for organizational forms that are more concerned with solving environmental and social problems. We examine whether one such model – foundation ownership – where a non-profit foundation owns and controls business companies, is associated with better sustainability outcomes. We hypothesize that foundations prioritize environmental and social objectives over profit maximization, resulting in stronger ESG performance in the companies they own. Using data on listed foundation-owned companies over the period 2003–2020 matched with control groups by firm size and industry, we find that foundation-owned firms have higher environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, particularly in the environmental and social dimensions. They maintained ESG activities during the financial crisis and committed to more significant emission reductions in the post-Paris Agreement period. Collectively, our findings highlight the potential of purposeful ownership in promoting corporate sustainability.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["David Schröder","Steen Thomsen"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"H","allJels":["H","R","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Public Economics / H","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102740","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fe72b90fd82b312c","title":"Social democracy and the decline of strikes","abstract":"This paper tests if a strong labor movement leads to fewer industrial conflicts. The focus is on Sweden between the first general election in 1919 and the famous Saltsjöbaden Agreement in 1938, a formative period when the country transitioned from fierce labor conflicts to a state of industrial peace. We use panel data techniques to analyze more than 2000 strikes in 103 Swedish towns. We find that a shift of political majority towards the Social Democrats led to a significant decline in strikes, but only in towns where union presence was strong. The strike-reducing mechanism is related to corporatist explanations rather than increased social spending in municipal budgets.","wordCount":108,"journal":"Explorations in Economic History","authors":["Jakob Molinder","Tobias Karlsson","Kerstin Enflo"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","D","J"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101420","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fe88d8b7022b7003","title":"Incomplete contracts, shared ownership, and investment incentives","abstract":"Consider a partnership consisting of two symmetrically informed parties who may each own a share of an asset. It is ex post efficient that tomorrow the party with the larger valuation gets the asset. Yet, today the parties can make investments to enhance the asset's productivity. Contracts are incomplete, so today only the ownership structure can be specified, which may be renegotiated tomorrow. It turns out that shared ownership is often optimal. If the investments are embodied in the physical asset, it may be optimal that party B has a larger ownership share even when party A has a larger valuation and a better investment technology. When shared ownership is taken into account, joint ownership in the sense of bilateral veto power cannot be optimal, regardless of whether the investments are in human capital or in physical capital.","wordCount":138,"journal":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization","authors":["Patrick W. Schmitz"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"K","allJels":["K","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Law and Economics / K","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.021","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fe99016cfb58dde4","title":"Gender Differences in Professional Career Dynamics: New Evidence from a Global Law Firm","abstract":"We examine gender gaps in career dynamics in the legal sector using rich panel data from one of the largest global law firms in the world. The law firm studied is representative of multinational law firms and operates in 23 countries. The sample includes countries at different stages of development. We document the cross‐country variation in gender gaps and how these gaps have changed over time. We show that while there is gender parity at the entry level in most countries by the end of the period examined, there are persistent raw gender gaps at the top of the organization across all countries. We observe significant heterogeneity among countries in terms of gender gaps in promotions and wages, but the gaps that exist appear to be declining over the period studied. We also observe that women are more likely to report exiting the firm for family and work–life balance reasons, while men report leaving for career advancement. Finally, we show that various measures of national institutions and culture appear to play a role in the differential labour market outcomes of men and women.","wordCount":183,"journal":"Economica","authors":["Ina Ganguli","Ricardo Hausmann","Martina Viarengo"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12342","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fe9ff9729ee93309","title":"Deregulation, Entry, and Competition in Local Banking Markets","abstract":"By applying the Bresnahan-Reiss empirical entry threshold model on Census data for the waves 1981 to 2011, we study the evolution of entry conditions in Italian local banking markets under a long-run perspective in order to capture the consequences of the removal of branching restrictions that occurred in the early 1990s. We do not find evidence of collusive behavior among local banks; instead, competition seems to have increased with respect to the number of banks and through the years—even if banks’ variable profits have risen over time. Overall, banks appear to have responded to the growing competition through the adoption of non-price strategies.","wordCount":103,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Paolo Coccorese","Alfonso Pellecchia"],"year":2022,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","N","L"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09867-w","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-feb5202cc5c85a0f","title":"Default risk, sectoral reallocation, and persistent recessions","abstract":"Sovereign debt crises are associated with large and persistent declines in economic activity, disproportionately so for nontradable sectors. This paper documents this pattern using Spanish data and builds a two-sector, dynamic quantitative model of sovereign default with capital accumulation. Recessions are very persistent in the model and more pronounced for nontraded sectors because of default risk. An adverse domestic shock increases the likelihood of default, limits capital inflows, and thus restricts the ability of the economy to exploit investment opportunities. The economy responds by reducing investment and reallocating capital toward the traded sector to support debt service payments. The real exchange rate depreciates, a reflection of the scarcity of traded goods. We find that these mechanisms are quantitatively important for rationalizing the experience of Spain during the recent debt crisis.","wordCount":130,"journal":"Journal of International Economics","authors":["Cristina Arellano","Yan Bai","Gabriel Mihalache"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"E","allJels":["E","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Macroeconomics / E","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.01.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-febb5a23dd24edbd","title":"Reversal of the First-Mover and Second-Mover Advantage in a Two-tier Industry","abstract":"We consider a two-tier industry with an upstream monopolist that charges linear input prices to downstream Stackelberg duopolists. We show that a second-mover advantage occurs in the downstream market under quantity competition and a first-mover advantage occurs in the downstream market under price competition if the upstream monopolist determines the input prices for the downstream leader and the downstream follower sequentially. If there are two-part tariff input prices, the reversal result under sequential pricing may occur under quantity competition but not under price competition.","wordCount":84,"journal":"Review of Industrial Organization","authors":["Arijit Mukherjee"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-025-10039-9","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fecc322cf56c9120","title":"Do state visits affect cross-border mergers and acquisitions?","abstract":"This paper studies the relation between state visits and cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Based on 1161 state visits and 11,531 cross-border acquisitions, we find that corporations from visiting countries are more likely to acquire corporations in countries hosting the visit. Domestic acquisitions in the host country or M&As with non-visiting countries are not elevated. Evidence from instrumental variable analysis points towards a causal effect of state visits on M&A activity. Further analysis shows that the elevated M&A activity originating from visiting countries can be attributed to business networking and a reduction in investment uncertainty and cultural barriers.","wordCount":99,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Mark Aleksanyan","Zhiwei Hao","Evangelos Vagenas‐Nanos","Patrick Verwijmeren"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","F","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101800","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fed22a85d7c30e1a","title":"The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam","abstract":"This study examines how the historical state conditions long‐run development, using Vietnam as a laboratory. Northern Vietnam (Dai Viet) was ruled by a strong, centralized state in which the village was the fundamental administrative unit. Southern Vietnam was a peripheral tributary of the Khmer (Cambodian) Empire, which followed a patron‐client model with more informal, personalized power relations and no village intermediation. Using a regression discontinuity design, the study shows that areas exposed to Dai Viet administrative institutions for a longer period prior to French colonization have experienced better economic outcomes over the past 150 years. Rich historical data document that in Dai Viet villages, citizens have been better able to organize for public goods and redistribution through civil society and local government. We argue that institutionalized village governance crowded in local cooperation and that these norms persisted long after the original institutions disappeared.","wordCount":143,"journal":"Econometrica","authors":["Melissa Dell","Nathaniel Lane","Pablo Querubín"],"year":2018,"tier":"top5","primaryJel":"O","allJels":["O","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Development and Growth / O","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15122","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fed40cb29120063f","title":"Hospital competition and quality for non‐emergency patients in the English NHS","abstract":"We investigate the effect on the quality of three high‐volume non‐emergency treatments of a reform that relaxed restrictions on patient choice of hospital. We employ a quasi difference‐in‐difference strategy and use control functions allowing for patient selection into providers correlated with unobserved morbidity. Public hospitals facing more rivals reduced quality, increased waiting times, and reduced length of stay for hip and knee replacements. This is likely due to regulated prices implying larger losses on these treatments compared to coronary artery bypass grafts, where no effects were found. Our findings are robust to estimation methods and competition measures, allowing for private providers’ entry.","wordCount":102,"journal":"RAND Journal of Economics","authors":["Giuseppe Moscelli","Hugh Gravelle","Luigi Siciliani"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12373","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fedd42059b944adb","title":"The Impacts of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work on Income and Health: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia","abstract":"Working with five Ethiopian firms, we randomized applicants to an industrial job offer, an “entrepreneurship” program of $300 plus business training, or control status. Industrial jobs offered more and steadier hours but low wages and risky conditions. The job offer doubled exposure to industrial work but, since most quit within months, had no impact on employment or income after a year. Applicants largely took industrial work to cope with adverse shocks. This exposure, meanwhile, significantly increased health problems. The entrepreneurship program raised earnings 33 percent and provided steadier hours. When barriers to self-employment were relieved, applicants preferred entrepreneurial to industrial labor.","wordCount":101,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics","authors":["Christopher Blattman","Stefan Dercon"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170173","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fee74c11de4047c6","title":"Search Advertising","abstract":"Search engines enable advertisers to target consumers based on the query they have entered. In a framework in which consumers search sequentially after having entered a query, I show that such targeting reduces search costs, improves matches and intensifies price competition. However, a profit-maximizing monopolistic search engine imposes a distortion by charging too high an advertising fee, which may negate the benefits of targeting. The search engine also has incentives to provide a suboptimal quality of sponsored links. Competition among search engines can increase or decrease welfare, depending on the extent of multi-homing by advertisers.","wordCount":95,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics","authors":["Alexandre de Cornière"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"L","allJels":["L","D"],"subfieldLabel":"Industrial Organization / L","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20130138","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-fef96b930d34ab5a","title":"A unifying approach to measuring climate change impacts and adaptation","abstract":"We develop a unifying approach to estimating climate impacts and adaptation, and apply it to study the impact of climate change on local air pollution. Economic agents are usually constrained when responding to daily weather shocks, but may adjust to long-run climatic changes. By simultaneously exploiting variation in weather and climate, we identify both the short- and long-run impacts on economic outcomes, and measure adaptation directly as the difference between those responses. As a result, we identify adaptation without making extrapolations of weather responses over time or space, and overcome omitted variable bias concerns from prior approaches.","wordCount":97,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Antonio M. Bento","Noah Miller","Mehreen Mookerjee","Edson Severnini"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102843","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ff027ca07d50d54e","title":"The transmission of socially responsible behaviour through international trade","abstract":"We investigate the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices of domestic Vietnamese firms and their engagement with foreign markets. We develop a measure of CSR that combines compliance with labour standards, management commitment to CSR, and corporate community related actions; and find a strong relationship between this measure and participation in international markets. Results suggest that both exporting and importing firms engage in more CSR activities. Conditional on exporting, we show that Vietnamese exporters to China are less involved in CSR related activities, and that exporters to the US engage in more community related CSR. This may reflect differences in stakeholder preferences across markets.","wordCount":105,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Carol Newman","John Rand","Finn Tarp","Neda Trifković"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"M","allJels":["M","F","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Business and Accounting / M","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.10.013","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ff0c801fe6e36952","title":"The effect of visa types on international tourism","abstract":"Visa policies are among the most important administrative formalities influencing international tourism flows. This study estimates a structural gravity model for tourism demand to quantify the effect of different types of visas. Furthermore, the effect of the monetary cost of the visa and changes in visa policies are evaluated. Thus, two novel databases on visa requirements are used. Our empirical analysis considers worldwide tourism movements, including domestic flows, from 194 origin countries to 163 destinations from 2016 to 2021. The results indicate that imposing visa requirements decreases international tourism movements, especially in developed countries, although the effect depends on the type of visa. Moreover, we find a low elasticity for the monetary cost of the visa.","wordCount":116,"journal":"Economic Modelling","authors":["Jaume Rosselló","María Santana-Gallego"],"year":2024,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J","F","R"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106757","license":"cc-by-nc"},{"id":"public-ff1283c6d141de64","title":"Manipulation of Procurement Contracts: Evidence from the Introduction of Discretionary Thresholds","abstract":"We present evidence of how policies that create opportunities to avoid open competition in procurement lead to the manipulation of procurement values. We exploit a policy reform in which public bodies were given the autonomy to preselect potential contractors below newly defined discretionary thresholds. Manipulation is revealed through bunching of procurements just below the thresholds in construction works and services, and to a lesser degree, in goods. Among manipulated contracts, we document a threefold increase in the probability that procurements are allocated to anonymous firms, which can hide their owners. This sorting violates assumptions behind regression-discontinuity designs.","wordCount":97,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Ján Palguta","Filip Pertold"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","H","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150511","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-ff159c7c6e5993b8","title":"The effects of access to health insurance: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Peru","abstract":"In many countries large parts of the population do not have access to health insurance. Peru has made an effort to change this in the early 2000s. The institutional setup gives rise to the rare opportunity to study the effects of health insurance coverage exploiting a sharp regression discontinuity design. We find large effects on utilization that are most pronounced for the provision of curative care. Individuals seeing a doctor leads to increased awareness about health problems and generates a potentially desirable form of supplier-induced demand: they decide to pay themselves for services that are in short supply.","wordCount":98,"journal":"Journal of Public Economics","authors":["Noelia Bernal","Miguel Ángel Carpio","Tobias J. Klein"],"year":2017,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.08.008","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ff24f80d448c2023","title":"How Do Changes in Housing Voucher Design Affect Rent and Neighborhood Quality?","abstract":"US housing voucher holders pay their landlord a fraction of household income and the government pays the rest, up to a rent ceiling. We study how two types of changes to the rent ceiling affect landlords and tenants. A policy that makes vouchers more generous across a metro area benefits landlords through increased rents, with minimal impact on neighborhood and unit quality. A second policy that indexes rent ceilings to neighborhood rents leads voucher holders to move into higher quality neighborhoods with lower crime, poverty, and unemployment.","wordCount":87,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy","authors":["Robert Collinson","Peter Ganong"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150176","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ff2f6b1b975722c8","title":"Future wind and solar power market values in Germany — Evidence of spatial and technological dependencies?","abstract":"Achieving ambitious climate targets entails an extensive utilisation of renewable energy sources. However, due to weather-dependent fluctuations, generation from variable renewable energy (VRE) sources is characterised by significantly lower market values in comparison to conventional technologies, reinforced by a decline in electricity prices. This development poses interesting questions as to its drivers and to what extent market values of wind and solar power can be influenced by the design of electricity markets. Against this background, a scenario-based analysis is conducted to trace the future development of market values using endogenously derived electricity prices considering different regional and technological VRE diversification strategies and investments into VRE technologies on a myopic basis. The results show a continued decline in market values with increasing regional discrepancies indicating a growing importance of interregional interdependencies for assessing the profitability of VRE. Furthermore, from a system point of view, a more distributed allocation of onshore wind capacities to contend with declining market values does not always prove to stabilise market values by facilitating a more constant feed-in pattern, contrary to expectation. Finally, replacing onshore with offshore wind energy appears to be beneficial as it can lead to an overall increase in the market values of offshore, onshore as well as PV generation technologies compared to other mitigation strategies. This result raise interesting questions about the systemic economic value of offshore wind despite its higher LCOE in the context of market integration of VRE.","wordCount":237,"journal":"Energy Economics","authors":["Manuel Eising","Hannes Hobbie","Dominik Möst"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104638","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ff567b6ed7cfd6d4","title":"On the role of present bias and biased price beliefs in household energy consumption","abstract":"The intermittency of energy billing may give rise to different biases or misperceptions, such that household energy demand deviates from its true optimum. This study investigates such deviations by linking variation in present-biased preferences and energy price beliefs to variation in energy consumed. Using both a survey and incentivized experiments, we gather measures of present bias as well as price beliefs, and observe participants’ true electricity consumption. Our main finding is that participants with present bias are predicted to consume on average 9 to 10 percent more electricity than participants with time-consistent discounting. Our results further suggest that neither the true marginal electricity price nor the perceived marginal electricity price can predict electricity consumption. These findings raise doubt as to the effectiveness of classic price-based policies in reducing household energy consumption.","wordCount":131,"journal":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","authors":["Madeline Werthschulte","Andreas Löschel"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102500","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ff60be75e1ed0051","title":"Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries","abstract":"We use variation in the access to a government credit certification program to estimate the financial and real effects of supporting small firms. This program was first implemented during the global financial crisis, but has remained active ever since, allowing us to analyze its effects both during recessions and recoveries. Eligible firms have access to government loan guarantees and a credit quality certification. We estimate real effects using a multidimensional regression discontinuity design. We find that eligible firms borrow more and at lower rates than non-eligible firms, allowing them to increase investment and employment during crises. Industry-level analysis shows reduced productivity heterogeneity in more exposed industries, which is consistent with improved credit allocation. However, when the economy is recovering the effects of the program are less pronounced and centered on the certification component. The cost-per-job in the recovery period is half of the one estimated for the crisis period (5784€ and 11,788€, respectively).","wordCount":153,"journal":"Journal of Financial Economics","authors":["Diana Bonfim","Cláudia Custódio","Clara C. Raposo"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","N"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.01.004","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ff656ea3dc64db75","title":"The role of gender in employment polarization","abstract":"We document that U.S. employment polarization in the 1980–2017 period is largely generated by women. In addition, we provide evidence that the increase of employment shares at the bottom of the skill distribution is generated in market sectors producing services representing home production substitutes. We use a calibrated macroeconomic model to show that a rising skill premium induces high‐skilled women to participate more in the labor market, reduce home working hours, and demand more home substitutes in the market, thus fostering a rise in employment shares at the bottom of the skill distribution. Counterfactual experiments suggest that without the large increase in the skill premium of high‐skilled women, employment polarization would have been substantially reduced, and changes of employment shares at the bottom of the distribution would have been negative.","wordCount":130,"journal":"International Economic Review","authors":["Fabio Cerina","Alessio Moro","Michelle Rendall"],"year":2021,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"J","allJels":["J"],"subfieldLabel":"Labor Economics / J","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12531","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ff70d8cd6d9c632f","title":"Why Are Modern Bureaucracies Special? State Support to Private Firms in Early Eighteenth-Century France","abstract":"The Bureau du Commerce allocated rights and rents to private entrepreneurs via a mix of hierarchical division of labor and peer-based collegial deliberation. This set-up reflected an attempt to maximize information and expertise, but also allowed for the recognition of private rights and social interests. The final decisions of the Bureau (for or against each demand), and the qualitative arguments brought forward during the procedure, are robust predictors of eventual decisions. We see this result as an indication that impersonal, rational and informed decision-making could be obtained even within a patrimonialist, rent-seeking State.","wordCount":93,"journal":"The Journal of Economic History","authors":["Jean Beuve","Éric Brousseau","Jérôme Sgard"],"year":2017,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"N","allJels":["N"],"subfieldLabel":"Economic History / N","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050717001061","license":"public-domain"},{"id":"public-ff743e85f4c07879","title":"Monetary–fiscal interactions with endogenous liquidity frictions","abstract":"I develop a tractable macro model with endogenous asset liquidity to understand monetary–fiscal interactions with liquidity frictions. Agents face idiosyncratic investment risks and meet financial intermediaries in competitive search markets. Asset liquidity is determined by the search friction and the cost of operating the financial intermediaries, and it drives the financing constraints of entrepreneurs (those who have investment projects) and their ability to invest. In contrast to private assets, government bonds are fully liquid and can be accumulated in anticipation of future opportunities to invest. A higher level of real government debt enhances the liquidity of entrepreneurs׳ portfolios and raises investment. However, the issuance of debt also raises the cost of financing government expenditures: a higher level of distortionary taxation and/or a higher real interest rate. A long-run optimal supply of government debt emerges. I also show that a proper mix of monetary and fiscal policies can avoid a deep financial recession.","wordCount":152,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Wei Cui"],"year":2016,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G","E"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.03.007","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ff762b047b7a67a3","title":"Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets","abstract":"The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock—expansionary versus contractionary—and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established using a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. Expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices in supply-inelastic areas. Contractionary shocks are orthogonal to housing supply elasticities. In supply-elastic areas, contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than expansionary shocks do. The opposite holds true in supply-inelastic areas. We attribute this to asymmetric housing supply adjustments.","wordCount":88,"journal":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":["Knut Are Aastveit","André K. Anundsen"],"year":2022,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","G","C"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190011","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ff8dfc62f80eb499","title":"Discrimination and sorting in the real estate market: Evidence from terrorist attacks and mosques","abstract":"I evaluate the impact of Islamist terrorist attacks, taken as exogenous shocks which may change individual perceptions towards Middle Easterners and Muslims, on the real-estate market. Using detailed property-level transactions data, I find that US property prices immediately near mosques fell by 5% in the two years following 9/11. I find little evidence of changes in the number of transactions, but an increase of up to 30% in the fraction of Middle Eastern and North African households locating near mosques, indicating increased ethnic and religious sorting from 9/11. Additional evidence suggests that price decreases across areas are in line with increased prejudice.","wordCount":102,"journal":"European Economic Review","authors":["Louis‐Pierre Lepage"],"year":2023,"tier":"top_general","primaryJel":"R","allJels":["R","J","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Urban and Regional Economics / R","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104386","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ffc5ec6e81a9bba5","title":"Private money creation, liquidity crises, and government interventions","abstract":"The joint supply of public and private liquidity is examined when financial intermediaries issue both riskless and risky debt and the economy is vulnerable to liquidity crises. Government interventions in the form of asset purchases and deposit insurance are equivalent (in the sense that they sustain the same equilibrium allocations), increase welfare, and, if fiscal capacity is sufficiently large, eliminate liquidity crises. In contrast, restricting intermediaries to investing in low-risk projects always eliminates liquidity crises but reduces welfare. Under some conditions, deposit insurance gives rise to an equilibrium in which intermediaries that issue insured debt (i.e., traditional banks) coexist with others that issue uninsured debt (i.e., shadow banks), despite the two being ex ante identical.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Journal of Monetary Economics","authors":["Pierpaolo Benigno","Roberto Robatto"],"year":2019,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","G"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.07.005","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-ffcb3c1c76178e43","title":"Big Data as a Governance Mechanism","abstract":"This study empirically investigates two effects of alternative data availability: stock price informativeness and its disciplining effect on managers’ actions. Recent computing advancements have enabled technology companies to collect real-time, granular indicators of fundamentals to sell to investment professionals. These data include consumer transactions and satellite images. The introduction of these data increases price informativeness through decreased information acquisition costs, particularly in firms in which sophisticated investors have higher incentives to uncover information. I document two effects on managers. First, managers reduce their opportunistic trading. Second, investment efficiency increases, consistent with price informativeness improving managers’ incentives to invest and divest efficiently.","wordCount":101,"journal":"Review of Financial Studies","authors":["Christina Zhu"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","M"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy081","license":"rights-reserved"},{"id":"public-ffd4347a6a3fde86","title":"COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria","abstract":"This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to examine the implication of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food security and labor market participation outcomes in Nigeria. To examine these relationships and implications, we exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures, along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest, using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that households exposed to higher COVID-19 case rates or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that the spread of the pandemic is associated with significant reductions in labor market participation. For instance, lockdown measures are associated with 6-15 percentage points increase in households' experience of food insecurity. Similarly, lockdown measures are associated with 12 percentage points reduction in the probability of participation in non-farm business activities. These lockdown measures have limited implications on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic.","wordCount":211,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Mulubrhan Amare","Kibrom A. Abay","Luca Tiberti","Jordan Chamberlin"],"year":2021,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"I","allJels":["I","Q"],"subfieldLabel":"Health, Education, Welfare / I","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102099","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ffd6809278615c07","title":"Does mixed-ownership reform improve SOEs' innovation? Evidence from state ownership","abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of the ongoing mixed-ownership reform on the innovation activities of SOEs in China. We find that the reform improves SOE’s innovation, and the impact is heterogeneous, by exploring in different industries and different regions with the influence of macroeconomic environment. This effect is stronger for SOEs in monopoly industries and eastern developed region. As a new form of state-sector reform, this mixed-ownership reform happens not only in SOEs like previous privatization, but also in a reverse direction. We also find its positive impact of improving the innovation for POEs being mix-reformed. To deal with endogeneity concerns, PSM, DiD and IV estimations are used. We also introduce highway as an instrumental variable, All the results in the 2SLS estimations are robust. Additional tests help isolate the effect of intervention from explanations of macro-economic effects, including house price, private employees, credit and equity finance.","wordCount":147,"journal":"China Economic Review","authors":["Xiaoqian Zhang","Mingqiang Yu","Gaoquan Chen"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101450","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-ffd9c4d7ca79a041","title":"Using food loss reduction to reach food security and environmental objectives – A search for promising leverage points","abstract":"We identify promising leverage points for food loss reductions from a food system perspective with a global economy-wide model capturing price and income feedbacks of changes at different points in the supply chain. Using new FAO food loss estimates we model loss reduction as a zero-cost productivity increase at primary and processing stages, simultaneously deriving the response of food security (national availability, accessibility and utilisation of food) and sustainability indicators (GHG emissions, agricultural land use) at global and regional levels. To help focus data collection and intervention efforts we identify interventions by region, supply chain stage and sector contributing most to improving nutrition and sustainability. While the loss rates show no clear relation to regional income, strongest impacts on food security and environment are in low income regions. Decomposing indicator responses to the exogenous loss reduction shocks we find a focus on domestic primary stages achieving strong and unambiguous positive impacts on both food security and environment. Since foreign loss reductions may harm food insecure agricultural households through import substitution, the most food insecure countries should be part of any global loss reduction efforts. Fruit and vegetables and animal products are found to have the strongest impact on both food security and environment. A marginal impact on GHG emissions remains once non-agricultural expansion following the productivity increase is accounted for, showing the importance of an economy-wide perspective.","wordCount":227,"journal":"Food Policy","authors":["Marijke Kuiper","Hao Cui"],"year":2020,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"Q","allJels":["Q","I"],"subfieldLabel":"Environmental Economics / Q","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101915","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fff09014cbc2bfaf","title":"Hidden action and outcome contractibility: An experimental test of moral hazard theory","abstract":"In a laboratory experiment with 754 participants, we study the canonical one-shot moral hazard problem, comparing treatments with unobservable effort to benchmark treatments with verifiable effort. In our experiment, the players endogenously negotiate contracts. In line with contract theory, the contractibility of the outcome plays a crucial role when effort is a hidden action. If the outcome is contractible, most players overcome the hidden action problem by agreeing on incentive-compatible contracts. Communication is helpful, since it may reduce strategic uncertainty. If the outcome is non-contractible, in most cases low effort is chosen whenever effort is a hidden action. However, communication leads the players to agree on larger wages and substantially mitigates the underprovision of effort.","wordCount":115,"journal":"Games and Economic Behavior","authors":["Eva I. Hoppe","Patrick W. Schmitz"],"year":2018,"tier":"top_field","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D","K","O"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2018.02.006","license":"cc-by-nc-nd"},{"id":"public-fff6fa4230f66bb4","title":"Does commercial reform embracing digital technologies mitigate stock price crash risk?","abstract":"Over the recent decade or so, the Chinese government implemented a commercial reform that features governmental application of digital technologies to acquire and process firm information. The core objective of commercial reform is to improve information transparency and monitoring on corporate commercial activities. To explore the economic effectiveness of the reform, we examine how it impacts firms' stock price crash risk. We find robust evidence that the commercial reform that digitalizes government regulatory activities mitigates stock price crash risk and achieves so via enhancing information environment and monitoring for firms. This finding is more prominent for firms with higher levels of digitalization and innovation and those with weaker internal governance. Overall, our findings highlight a potential benefit of applying digital technologies to regulatory reform, encouraging governments to adopt digital tools to improve information environments and monitoring for firms, and thereby promoting a more stable and efficient capital market.","wordCount":148,"journal":"Journal of Corporate Finance","authors":["Guanming He","April Zhichao Li","Ling Yu","Zhanqiang Zhou"],"year":2025,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"G","allJels":["G","H"],"subfieldLabel":"Financial Economics / G","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102741","license":"cc-by"},{"id":"public-fff9d42082ee378e","title":"The effects of financial and recognition incentives across work contexts: The role of meaning","abstract":"We manipulate workers' perceived meaning of a job in a field experiment and interact meaning of work with both financial and recognition incentives. Results show that workers exert more effort when meaning is high. Money has a positive effect on performance that is independent of meaning. In contrast, meaning and recognition interact negatively. Our results provide new insights into the stability of incentive effects across important work contexts. They also suggest that meaning and worker recognition may operate via the same motivational channel.","wordCount":83,"journal":"Economic Inquiry","authors":["Michael Kosfeld","Susanne Neckermann","Xiaolan Yang"],"year":2016,"tier":"other","primaryJel":"D","allJels":["D"],"subfieldLabel":"Microeconomics / D","sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12350","license":"other-oa"}]}